Foreign Relations in South Asia

A Change of Heart – India and the Maldives:

In September 2023, Mohamed Muizzu of the People’s National
Congress Party won the elections with 54% of the vote beating
incumbent the Pro-India and MDP candidate Soleh, Muizzu
campaigned his election with the slogan “India Out”, and
demanded the exit of Indian troops who assist the Maldivian
military. The relations soon went downhill when several
ministers of Muizzu’s cabinet, had ignited tensions with the
Government of India regarding the Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep. However, Maldives suffered an
economic crisis as Indians dominated the country’s largest
industry which is tourism, many of whom demanded the
boycott of Maldives after the Maldivian ministers’ statement,
who were forced to resign. President Muizzu quickly reacted
and launched schemes to attract more Indian tourist, and
Muizzu started the curbing of his campaign’s influence in his
foreign policy, even as far as allowing India’s Rupay payment
system to be operational in Maldives in 2024. And India’s
position has been stern of keeping financial and socio-economic
relations with the Maldives despite the ideologic change.

The Bewildering Case of Pakistan:

In 2022, after overthrowing Imran Khan as prime minister,
Shahbaz Sharif became prime minister and allowed his brother
Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan and announced elections in
2023 and delaying it to 2024. Nawaz on return demanded more
“peaceful” and “constructive” ties with India, and pointed out
that Pakistan needed to be able to set aside differences with
nations especially with India and Bangladesh. However,
Pakistan in 2024 had been noted to completely change its
portfolio at the 78th UNGA, where Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif
said that, “Pakistan will react to any Indian threat aggressively”,
though India had not posed any threat to Pakistan.
In early 2024, report came out of the Baloch region between
Pakistan and Iran, that both countries had exchanged missile
fires. Iran and Pakistan had grown closer in the 2010’s and
2020’s, where they acknowledged one common challenge,
which was they being marginalized by the United States,
especially after Donald Trump’s presidency. But suddenly
without any reaction Pakistan and Iran briefly exchanged
missile strikes and ended it without any publicity, causing
analysts to predict a bigger conspiracy.

Flip-Flop Policy: China and Turkey:

India’s relationships with both China and Turkey have been
under strains and pressure. China launched the most heinous
attack in the Galwan valley in 45 years, and Turkey had
questioned India’s integrity towards Kashmir. In 2019, when
India abrogated Article 370.
Many nations had mixed reactions, some calling it, “India’s
internal matter” and some straight away condemned it, and
such was the case of Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
who envisions Turkey as a renaissance Ottoman society, had
called to condemn India’s move and had endorsed Pakistan,
even cancelling military aid shipments to India. As time passed,
Erdogan had softened the position against the issue. In 2019,
2020 Erdogan at the UNGA summits called for a unilateral
condemnation, but in 2021, 2022 and 2023 called for a
“peaceful” dialogue between India and Pakistan, and in 2024
he did not even mention Kashmir. Many experts predict this is
thanks many changes in Turkey most notably economic and
political aspects, firstly, Turkey’s currency the Lira has recorded
its worst ever crash, and inflation at record high Turkey needs
new partners to interact and to settle deficits. India was the
perfect option with 7% annual growth of GDP, and a rising
player in chip manufacturing and IT, causing a revisit in ties
between the nations, with even Turkey supporting India’s bid
for a permanent seat at the UNSC. Secondly, politically,
Erdogan has been weakened with his Justice Party almost
conceded defeat in 2023 presidential polls, and Erdogan now
having a much more bolder opposition than before.

In October 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India’s

prime minister Narendra Modi in Mahabalipuram in Tamil Nadu,
they discussed as an informal meeting on various ways of
growing trade and boosting stability in an hostile region at that
point of time, as time progressed, and as the world was locked
behind doors and windows, news came out that China had
attacked India’s patrollers in Ladakh in May, and soon spread to
a bloodbath in Galwan. 23 Indian soldiers died, China claimed
to have lost 5 soldiers, but according to a Russian source China
had lost 45 soldiers and there were no territorial changes. India
soon reacted by banning over a 100 Chinese apps including
TikTok. BYD a company that was poised to gain a reasonable
market share in India, was forced out due to its Chinese origins.
IPL the major cricket event of India had seen a change in
sponsor from Vivo a Chinese phone company to TATA group.
But with all these escalations India and China agreed to settle
differences in 2024 in the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
Where China and India agreed to sign a agreement to allow
patrolling in the region, although India is skeptic of giving the
green light to Chinese investors.

The Question of Iran: Is History Only Enough?

Iran and India have proudly boasted their pre-colonial relations
and leaders in the Mughal era. India and Iran had never had
wars in the civilizational period, even before the Islamic period,
Zoroastrianism, founded in Iran slowly progressed to India and
finding refuge.

India and Iran with reasonable historical relations are

surprisingly not so much engaged in the contemporary world,
with both sides now having a different view on the
everchanging world. India after independence had been aligned
towards Soviet socialism, and Iran being ruled by a Capitalist
government. India got much of its support from Soviet Union
and Iran had joined hands with China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US,
and UK to help Pakistan against India. Even after the
government changed in 1979, Iran was skeptic of supporting
India politically.

In 2018, India had fully taken over the Chahbahar port, a way of
countering China at Gwadar port in Pakistan. In 2017, President
Hassan Rouhani was a close friend of India, and had given the
opportunity for India to operate the Chahbahar port, but in
2019, US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Iran,
which slowed down the construction of the port. In 2023,
Ebrahim Raisi took over as president of Iran, and he had
endorsed a “cold shrug” attitude towards India, and had
blamed India for the delay of the Chahbahar port’s entry into
service. In May 2024, he and his foreign minister died in a
helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan-Iran border, after which
Reformist, Mahmoud Pezeshkian was elected president, under
him, there was hope for the Chahbahar port, as Pezeshkian had
met India’s PM Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in
Kazan, Russia. Pezeshkian had described the meeting as having
“good agreements.” This raised many questions that whether
History was enough for the prosperity of a relationship.