Rare Earth hypothesis

In planetary astronomy and astrobiology, the Rare

Earth hypothesis argues that the origin of life
and the evolution of biological complexity such as
sexually reproducing, multicellular organisms on
Earth (and, subsequently, human intelligence)
required an improbable combination of
astrophysical and geological events and
circumstances.

According to the hypothesis, complex

extraterrestrial life is an improbable phenomenon
and likely to be rare throughout the universe as a
whole. The term "Rare Earth" originates from Rare
Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the
Universe (2000), a book by Peter Ward, a geologist
and paleontologist, and Donald E. Brownlee, an The Rare Earth hypothesis argues that planets
astronomer and astrobiologist, both faculty with complex life, like Earth, are exceptionally
rare.
members at the University of Washington.

In the 1970s and 1980s, Carl Sagan and Frank

Drake, among others, argued that Earth is a typical rocky planet in a typical planetary system,
located in a non-exceptional region of a common barred spiral galaxy. From the principle of
mediocrity (extended from the Copernican principle), they argued that the evolution of life on
Earth, including human beings, was also typical, and therefore that the universe teems with
complex life. However, Ward and Brownlee argue that planets, planetary systems, and galactic
regions that are as accommodating for complex life as are the Earth, the Solar System, and our own
galactic region are not typical at all, but actually exceedingly rare.

Fermi paradox
There is no reliable or reproducible evidence that extraterrestrial organisms of any kind have
visited Earth.[1][2] No transmissions or evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life have been
detected or observed anywhere other than Earth in the Universe. This runs counter to the
knowledge that the Universe is filled with a very large number of planets, some of which likely hold
the conditions hospitable for life. Life typically expands until it fills all available niches.[3] These
contradictory facts form the basis for the Fermi paradox, of which the Rare Earth hypothesis is one
proposed solution.

Requirements for complex life

The Rare Earth hypothesis
argues that the evolution of Life timeline
biological complexity Quaternary ice age*
0— Flowers Birds Primates ←
← Earliest apes / humans
anywhere in the universe – Mammals
Dinosaurs
 — osau s
requires the coincidence of ← Karoo ice age*
–P P ← Earliest tetrapods
a large number of n
h l Arthropods Molluscs ← Andean glaciation*
−500 — e a a
fortuitous circumstances, r n ← Cambrian explosion
–o t ← Ediacaran biota
including, among others, a ← Cryogenian ice age*
—z s ← Earliest animals
galactic habitable zone; a o
–i ← Earliest plants
central star and planetary
−1000 — c
system having the requisite Multicellular life
character (i.e. a –
circumstellar habitable —
zone); a terrestrial planet of –P
the right mass; the −1500 — r ← Earliest fungi
o ← Earliest multicellular life
advantage of one or more –t
gas giant guardians like — er
Jupiter and possibly a large –o Eukaryotes
z
natural satellite to shield −2000 — o ← Sexual reproduction
the planet from frequent –i
c
impact events; conditions — ← Huronian glaciation*
← Atmospheric oxygen
needed to ensure the planet –
has a magnetosphere and −2500 —
plate tectonics; a chemistry –
similar to that present in —
the Earth's lithosphere, Photosynthesis ← Pongola glaciation*
–
atmosphere, and oceans; −3000 — A
the influence of periodic –r
"evolutionary pumps" such c
—h
as massive glaciations and
–ea
bolide impacts; and
−3500 — n ← Earliest oxygen
whatever factors may have
–
led to the emergence of
— Single-celled life
eukaryotic cells, sexual
– ← LHB meteorites
reproduction, and the
−4000 — ← Earliest fossils
Cambrian explosion of H
–a
animal, plant, and fungi Water
—d
phyla. The evolution of e
–a ← LUCA
human beings and of n ← Earliest water
human intelligence may −4500 — ← Earth formed
have required yet further (million years ago) *Ice Ages
specific events and
circumstances, all of which are extremely unlikely to have happened were it not for the
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event 66 million years ago removing dinosaurs as the dominant
terrestrial vertebrates.

In order for a small rocky planet to support complex life, Ward and Brownlee argue, the values of
several variables must fall within narrow ranges. The universe is so vast that it might still contain
many Earth-like planets, but if such planets exist, they are likely to be separated from each other
by many thousands of light-years. Such distances may preclude communication among any
intelligent species that may evolve on such planets, which would solve the Fermi paradox: "If
extraterrestrial aliens are common, why aren't they obvious?"

The right location in the right kind of galaxy

Rare Earth suggests that much of the known universe, including large parts of our galaxy, are
"dead zones" unable to support complex life. Those parts of a galaxy where complex life is possible
make up the galactic habitable zone, which is primarily characterized by distance from the Galactic
Center.

1. As that distance increases, star metallicity declines. Metals (which in astronomy refers to all
elements other than hydrogen and helium) are necessary for the formation of terrestrial
planets.
2. The X-ray and gamma ray radiation from the black hole at the galactic center, and from nearby
neutron stars, becomes less intense as distance increases. Thus the early universe, and
present-day galactic regions where stellar density is high and supernovae are common, will be
dead zones.[4]
3. Gravitational perturbation of planets and planetesimals by nearby stars becomes less likely as
the density of stars decreases. Hence the further a planet lies from the Galactic Center or a
spiral arm, the less likely it is to be struck by a large bolide which could extinguish all complex
life on a planet.
Item #1 rules out the outermost reaches of a galaxy; #2 and #3
rule out galactic inner regions. Hence a galaxy's habitable zone
may be a relatively narrow ring of adequate conditions
sandwiched between its uninhabitable center and outer reaches.

Also, a habitable planetary system must maintain its favorable

Dense centers of galaxies such
as NGC 7331 (often referred to
location long enough for complex life to evolve. A star with an
as a "twin" of the Milky Way[5])
eccentric (elliptical or hyperbolic) galactic orbit will pass through
have high radiation levels toxic some spiral arms, unfavorable regions of high star density; thus a
to complex life. life-bearing star must have a galactic orbit that is nearly circular,
with a close synchronization between the orbital velocity of the
star and of the spiral arms. This further restricts the galactic
habitable zone within a fairly narrow range of distances from the
Galactic Center. Lineweaver et al. calculate this zone to be a ring 7
to 9 kiloparsecs in radius, including no more than 10% of the
stars in the Milky Way,[6] about 20 to 40 billion stars. Gonzalez et
al.[7] would halve these numbers; they estimate that at most 5%
of stars in the Milky Way fall within the galactic habitable zone.

Approximately 77% of observed galaxies are spiral,[8] two-thirds

According to Rare Earth,
of all spiral galaxies are barred, and more than half, like the Milky
globular clusters are unlikely to Way, exhibit multiple arms.[9] According to Rare Earth, our own
support life. galaxy is unusually quiet and dim (see below), representing just
7% of its kind.[10] Even so, this would still represent more than
200 billion galaxies in the known universe.
Our galaxy also appears unusually favorable in suffering fewer collisions with other galaxies over
the last 10 billion years, which can cause more supernovae and other disturbances.[11] Also, the
Milky Way's central black hole seems to have neither too much nor too little activity.[12]

The orbit of the Sun around the center of the Milky Way is indeed almost perfectly circular, with a
period of 226 Ma (million years), closely matching the rotational period of the galaxy. However,
the majority of stars in barred spiral galaxies populate the spiral arms rather than the halo and
tend to move in gravitationally aligned orbits, so there is little that is unusual about the Sun's orbit.
While the Rare Earth hypothesis predicts that the Sun should rarely, if ever, have passed through a
spiral arm since its formation, astronomer Karen Masters has calculated that the orbit of the Sun
takes it through a major spiral arm approximately every 100 million years.[13] Some researchers
have suggested that several mass extinctions do indeed correspond with previous crossings of the
spiral arms.[14]

The right orbital distance from the right type of star

The terrestrial example suggests that complex life requires
liquid water, the maintenance of which requires an orbital
distance neither too close nor too far from the central star,
another scale of habitable zone or Goldilocks principle.[15] The
habitable zone varies with the star's type and age.

For advanced life, the star must also be highly stable, which is
typical of middle star life, about 4.6 billion years old. Proper
metallicity and size are also important to stability. The Sun has
a low (0.1%) luminosity variation. To date, no solar twin star, According to the hypothesis, Earth
with an exact match of the Sun's luminosity variation, has been has an improbable orbit in the very
narrow habitable zone (dark green)
found, though some come close. The star must also have no
around the Sun.
stellar companions, as in binary systems, which would disrupt
the orbits of any planets. Estimates suggest 50% or more of all
star systems are binary.[16][17][18][19] The habitable zone for a main sequence star very gradually
moves out over its lifespan until the star becomes a white dwarf and the habitable zone vanishes.

The liquid water and other gases available in the habitable zone bring the benefit of the greenhouse
effect. Even though the Earth's atmosphere contains a water vapor concentration from 0% (in arid
regions) to 4% (in rainforest and ocean regions) and – as of November 2022 – only 417.2 parts per
million of CO2,[20] these small amounts suffice to raise the average surface temperature by about
40 °C,[21] with the dominant contribution being due to water vapor.

Rocky planets must orbit within the habitable zone for life to form. Although the habitable zone of
such hot stars as Sirius or Vega is wide, hot stars also emit much more ultraviolet radiation that
ionizes any planetary atmosphere. Such stars may also become red giants before advanced life
evolves on their planets. These considerations rule out the massive and powerful stars of type F6 to
O (see stellar classification) as homes to evolved metazoan life.

Conversely, small red dwarf stars have small habitable zones wherein planets are in tidal lock, with
one very hot side always facing the star and another very cold side always facing away, and they are
also at increased risk of solar flares (see Aurelia). As such, it is disputed whether they can support
life. Rare Earth proponents claim that only stars from F7 to K1 types are hospitable. Such stars are
rare: G type stars such as the Sun (between the hotter F and cooler K) comprise only 9%[22] of the
hydrogen-burning stars in the Milky Way.

Such aged stars as red giants and white dwarfs are also unlikely to support life. Red giants are
common in globular clusters and elliptical galaxies. White dwarfs are mostly dying stars that have
already completed their red giant phase. Stars that become red giants expand into or overheat the
habitable zones of their youth and middle age (though theoretically planets at much greater
distances may then become habitable).

An energy output that varies with the lifetime of the star will likely prevent life (e.g., as Cepheid
variables). A sudden decrease, even if brief, may freeze the water of orbiting planets, and a
significant increase may evaporate it and cause a greenhouse effect that prevents the oceans from
reforming.

All known life requires the complex chemistry of metallic elements. The absorption spectrum of a
star reveals the presence of metals within, and studies of stellar spectra reveal that many, perhaps
most, stars are poor in metals. Because heavy metals originate in supernova explosions, metallicity
increases in the universe over time. Low metallicity characterizes the early universe: globular
clusters and other stars that formed when the universe was young, stars in most galaxies other
than large spirals, and stars in the outer regions of all galaxies. Metal-rich central stars capable of
supporting complex life are therefore believed to be most common in the less dense regions of the
larger spiral galaxies—where radiation also happens to be weak.[23]

The right arrangement of planets around the star

Rare Earth proponents argue that a planetary system capable
of sustaining complex life must be structured more or less like
the Solar System, with small, rocky inner planets and massive
outer gas giants.[24] Without the protection of such "celestial
vacuum cleaner" planets with strong gravitational pulls, other
planets would be subject to more frequent catastrophic asteroid
collisions.
Depiction of the Sun and planets of
the Solar System and the sequence
Observations of exoplanets have shown that arrangements of
of planets. Rare Earth argues that
planets similar to the Solar System are rare. Most planetary without such an arrangement, in
systems have super-Earths, several times larger than Earth, particular the presence of the
close to their star, whereas the Solar System's inner region has massive gas giant Jupiter (the fifth
only a few small rocky planets and none inside Mercury's orbit. planet from the Sun and the
Only 10% of stars have giant planets similar to Jupiter and largest), complex life on Earth would
Saturn, and those few rarely have stable, nearly circular orbits not have arisen.

distant from their star. Konstantin Batygin and colleagues

argue that these features can be explained if, early in the history of the Solar System, Jupiter and
Saturn drifted towards the Sun, sending showers of planetesimals towards the super-Earths which
sent them spiralling into the Sun, and ferrying icy building blocks into the terrestrial region of the
Solar System which provided the building blocks for the rocky planets. The two giant planets then
drifted out again to their present positions. In the view of Batygin and his colleagues: "The
concatenation of chance events required for this delicate choreography suggest that small, Earth-
like rocky planets – and perhaps life itself – could be rare throughout the cosmos."[25]

A continuously stable orbit

Rare Earth proponents argue that a gas giant also must not be too close to a body where life is
developing. Close placement of one or more gas giants could disrupt the orbit of a potential life-
bearing planet, either directly or by drifting into the habitable zone.

Newtonian dynamics can produce chaotic planetary orbits, especially in a system having large
planets at high orbital eccentricity.[26]

The need for stable orbits rules out stars with planetary systems that contain large planets with
orbits close to the host star (called "hot Jupiters"). It is believed that hot Jupiters have migrated
inwards to their current orbits. In the process, they would have catastrophically disrupted the
orbits of any planets in the habitable zone.[27] To exacerbate matters, hot Jupiters are much more
common orbiting F and G class stars.[28]

A terrestrial planet of the right size

The Rare Earth hypothesis argues that life
requires terrestrial planets like Earth, and since
gas giants lack such a surface, that complex life
cannot arise there.[29]

A planet that is too small cannot maintain much

atmosphere, rendering its surface temperature low
and variable and oceans impossible. A small
planet will also tend to have a rough surface, with
Planets of the Solar System, shown to scale. Rare large mountains and deep canyons. The core will
Earth argues that complex life cannot exist on large
cool faster, and plate tectonics may be brief or
gaseous planets like Jupiter and Saturn (top row) or
entirely absent. A planet that is too large will
Uranus and Neptune (top middle) or smaller planets
such as Mars and Mercury. retain too dense an atmosphere, like Venus.
Although Venus is similar in size and mass to
Earth, its surface atmospheric pressure is 92 times
that of Earth, and its surface temperature is 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F). The early Earth once had a
similar atmosphere, but may have lost it in the giant impact event which formed the Moon.[30]

Plate tectonics
Rare Earth proponents argue that plate tectonics and a strong magnetic field are essential for
biodiversity, global temperature regulation, and the carbon cycle.[31] The lack of mountain chains
elsewhere in the Solar System is evidence that Earth is the only body which now has plate
tectonics, and thus the only one capable of supporting life.[32]

Plate tectonics depend on the right chemical composition and a long-lasting source of heat from
radioactive decay. Continents must be made of less dense felsic rocks that "float" on underlying
denser mafic rock. Taylor[33] emphasizes that tectonic subduction zones require the lubrication of
oceans of water. Plate tectonics also provide a means of biochemical cycling.[34]
Plate tectonics and, as a result, continental drift and the
creation of separate landmasses would create diversified
ecosystems and biodiversity, one of the strongest defenses
against extinction.[35] An example of species diversification and
later competition on Earth's continents is the Great American
Interchange. North and Middle America drifted into South
America at around 3.5 to 3 Ma. The fauna of South America
had already evolved separately for about 30 million years, since
Antarctica separated, but, after the merger, many species were
wiped out, mainly in South America, by competing North
American animals.

A large moon The Great American Interchange on

Earth, approximately 3.5 to 3 Ma, an
The Moon is unusual because the other rocky planets in the
example of species competition,
Solar System either have no satellites (Mercury and Venus), or
resulting from continental plate
only relatively tiny satellites which are probably captured interaction
asteroids (Mars). After Charon, the Moon is also the largest
natural satellite in the Solar
System relative to the size
of its parent body, being
27% the size of Earth.[36]

The giant-impact theory

hypothesizes that the Moon
resulted from the impact of
Tide pools resulting from the tidal a Mars-sized body, dubbed
interactions of the Moon are said to Theia, with the young
have promoted the evolution of Earth. This giant impact
complex life. also gave the Earth its axial
tilt (inclination) and An artist's rendering of the structure
velocity of rotation.[33] of Earth's magnetic field-
Rapid rotation reduces the daily variation in temperature and magnetosphere that protects Earth's
makes photosynthesis viable.[37] The Rare Earth hypothesis life from solar radiation. 1) Bow
further argues that the axial tilt cannot be too large or too small shock. 2) Magnetosheath.
(relative to the orbital plane). A planet with a large tilt will 3) Magnetopause.
4) Magnetosphere. 5) Northern tail
experience extreme seasonal variations in climate. A planet
lobe. 6) Southern tail lobe.
with little or no tilt will lack the stimulus to evolution that 7) Plasmasphere.
climate variation provides. In this view, the Earth's tilt is "just
right". The gravity of a large satellite also stabilizes the planet's
tilt; without this effect, the variation in tilt would be chaotic, probably making complex life forms
on land impossible.[38]

If the Earth had no Moon, the ocean tides resulting solely from the Sun's gravity would be only half
that of the lunar tides. A large satellite gives rise to tidal pools, which may be essential for the
formation of complex life, though this is far from certain.[39]
A large satellite also increases the likelihood of plate tectonics through the effect of tidal forces on
the planet's crust. The impact that formed the Moon may also have initiated plate tectonics,
without which the continental crust would cover the entire planet, leaving no room for oceanic
crust. It is possible that the large-scale mantle convection needed to drive plate tectonics could not
have emerged if the crust had a uniform composition. A further theory indicates that such a large
moon may also contribute to maintaining a planet's magnetic shield by continually acting upon a
metallic planetary core as dynamo, thus protecting the surface of the planet from charged particles
and cosmic rays, and helping to ensure the atmosphere is not stripped over time by solar winds.

An atmosphere
A terrestrial planet must be the right size, like Earth and Venus,
in order to retain an atmosphere. On Earth, once the giant
impact of Theia thinned Earth's atmosphere, other events were
needed to make the atmosphere capable of sustaining life. The
Late Heavy Bombardment reseeded Earth with water lost after
the impact of Theia.[40] The development of an ozone layer
generated a protective shield against ultraviolet (UV)
sunlight.[41][42] Nitrogen and carbon dioxide are needed in a
correct ratio for life to form.[43] Lightning is needed for
nitrogen fixation.[44] The gaseous carbon dioxide needed for
life comes from sources such as volcanoes and geysers. Carbon
dioxide is preferably needed at relatively low levels (currently
at approximately 400 ppm on Earth) because at high levels it is
poisonous.[45][46] Precipitation is needed to have a stable water
cycle.[47] A proper atmosphere must reduce diurnal
temperature variation.[48][49]

One or more evolutionary triggers for complex life Earth's atmosphere

Regardless of whether planets with similar physical attributes

to the Earth are rare or not, some argue that life tends not to
evolve into anything more complex than simple bacteria
without being provoked by rare and specific circumstances.
Biochemist Nick Lane argues that simple cells (prokaryotes)
emerged soon after Earth's formation, but since almost half the
planet's life had passed before they evolved into complex ones This diagram illustrates the twofold
(eukaryotes), all of whom share a common ancestor, this event cost of sex. If each individual were
can only have happened once. According to some views, to contribute to the same number of
prokaryotes lack the cellular architecture to evolve into offspring (two), (a) the sexual
eukaryotes because a bacterium expanded up to eukaryotic population remains the same size
each generation, whereas (b) the
proportions would have tens of thousands of times less energy
asexual population doubles in size
available to power its metabolism. Two billion years ago, one
each generation.
simple cell incorporated itself into another, multiplied, and
evolved into mitochondria that supplied the vast increase in
available energy that enabled the evolution of complex eukaryotic life. If this incorporation
occurred only once in four billion years or is otherwise unlikely, then life on most planets remains
simple.[50] An alternative view is that the evolution of mitochondria was environmentally
triggered, and that mitochondria-containing organisms appeared soon after the first traces of
atmospheric oxygen.[51]

The evolution and persistence of sexual reproduction is another mystery in biology. The purpose of
sexual reproduction is unclear, as in many organisms it has a 50% cost (fitness disadvantage) in
relation to asexual reproduction.[52] Mating types (types of gametes, according to their
compatibility) may have arisen as a result of anisogamy (gamete dimorphism), or the male and
female sexes may have evolved before anisogamy.[53][54] It is also unknown why most sexual
organisms use a binary mating system,[55] and why some organisms have gamete dimorphism.
Charles Darwin was the first to suggest that sexual selection drives speciation; without it, complex
life would probably not have evolved.

The right time in evolutionary history

While life on Earth is regarded to have spawned relatively early
in the planet's history, the evolution from multicellular to
intelligent organisms took around 800 million years.[56]
Civilizations on Earth have existed for about 12,000 years, and
radio communication reaching space has existed for little more
than 100 years. Relative to the age of the Solar System (~4.57
Ga) this is a short time, in which extreme climatic variations,
super volcanoes, and large meteorite impacts were absent.
Timeline of evolution; human writing
These events would severely harm intelligent life, as well as life
exists for only 0.000218% of Earth's in general. For example, the Permian-Triassic mass extinction,
history. caused by widespread and continuous volcanic eruptions in an
area the size of Western Europe, led to the extinction of 95% of
known species around 251.2 Ma ago. About 65 million years
ago, the Chicxulub impact at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (~65.5 Ma) on the Yucatán
peninsula in Mexico led to a mass extinction of the most advanced species at that time.

Rare Earth equation

The following discussion is adapted from Cramer.[57] The Rare Earth equation is Ward and
Brownlee's riposte to the Drake equation. It calculates , the number of Earth-like planets in the
Milky Way having complex life forms, as:
[58]

where:

N* is the number of stars in the Milky Way. This number is not well-estimated, because the
Milky Way's mass is not well estimated, with little information about the number of small stars.
N* is at least 100 billion, and may be as high as 500 billion, if there are many low visibility stars.
is the average number of planets in a star's habitable zone. This zone is fairly narrow, being
constrained by the requirement that the average planetary temperature be consistent with
water remaining liquid throughout the time required for complex life to evolve. Thus, =1 is a
likely upper bound.
We assume . The Rare Earth hypothesis can then
be viewed as asserting that the product of the other nine Rare Earth
equation factors listed below, which are all fractions, is no greater than
10−10 and could plausibly be as small as 10−12. In the latter case,
could be as small as 0 or 1. Ward and Brownlee do not actually
calculate the value of , because the numerical values of quite a few of
the factors below can only be conjectured. They cannot be estimated
simply because we have but one data point: the Earth, a rocky planet
orbiting a G2 star in a quiet suburb of a large barred spiral galaxy, and
the home of the only intelligent species we know; namely, ourselves.

is the fraction of stars in the galactic habitable zone (Ward,

According to Rare Earth,
Brownlee, and Gonzalez estimate this factor as 0.1[7]).
the Cambrian explosion that
is the fraction of stars in the Milky Way with planets. saw extreme diversification
is the fraction of planets that are rocky ("metallic") rather than of chordata from simple
gaseous. forms like Pikaia (pictured)
was an improbable event.
is the fraction of habitable planets where microbial life arises.
Ward and Brownlee believe this fraction is unlikely to be small.
is the fraction of planets where complex life evolves. For 80% of the time since microbial life
first appeared on the Earth, there was only bacterial life. Hence Ward and Brownlee argue that
this fraction may be small.
is the fraction of the total lifespan of a planet during which complex life is present. Complex
life cannot endure indefinitely, because the energy put out by the sort of star that allows
complex life to emerge gradually rises, and the central star eventually becomes a red giant,
engulfing all planets in the planetary habitable zone. Also, given enough time, a catastrophic
extinction of all complex life becomes ever more likely.
is the fraction of habitable planets with a large moon. If the giant impact theory of the
Moon's origin is correct, this fraction is small.
is the fraction of planetary systems with large Jovian planets. This fraction could be large.
is the fraction of planets with a sufficiently low number of extinction events. Ward and
Brownlee argue that the low number of such events the Earth has experienced since the
Cambrian explosion may be unusual, in which case this fraction would be small.
The Rare Earth equation, unlike the Drake equation, does not factor the probability that complex
life evolves into intelligent life that discovers technology. Barrow and Tipler review the consensus
among such biologists that the evolutionary path from primitive Cambrian chordates, e.g., Pikaia
to Homo sapiens, was a highly improbable event. For example, the large brains of humans have
marked adaptive disadvantages, requiring as they do an expensive metabolism, a long gestation
period, and a childhood lasting more than 25% of the average total life span.[59] Other improbable
features of humans include:

Being one of a handful of extant bipedal land (non-avian) vertebrate. Combined with an
unusual eye–hand coordination, this permits dextrous manipulations of the physical
environment with the hands;
A vocal apparatus far more expressive than that of any other mammal, enabling speech.
Speech makes it possible for humans to interact cooperatively, to share knowledge, and to
acquire a culture;
 The capability of formulating abstractions to a degree permitting the invention of mathematics,
and the discovery of science and technology. Only recently did humans acquire anything like
their current scientific and technological sophistication.

Advocates
Writers who support the Rare Earth hypothesis:

Stuart Ross Taylor,[33] a specialist on the Solar System, firmly believed in the hypothesis.
Taylor concludes that the Solar System is probably unusual, because it resulted from so many
chance factors and events.
Stephen Webb,[60] a physicist, mainly presents and rejects candidate solutions for the Fermi
paradox. The Rare Earth hypothesis emerges as one of the few solutions left standing by the
end of the book
Simon Conway Morris, a paleontologist, endorses the Rare Earth hypothesis in chapter 5 of his
Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe,[61] and cites Ward and Brownlee's
book with approval.[62]
John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler, cosmologists, vigorously defend the hypothesis that
humans are likely to be the only intelligent life in the Milky Way, and perhaps the entire
universe. But this hypothesis is not central to their book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle,
a thorough study of the anthropic principle and of how the laws of physics are peculiarly suited
to enable the emergence of complexity in nature.[63]
Ray Kurzweil, a computer pioneer and self-proclaimed Singularitarian, argues in his 2005 book
The Singularity Is Near that the coming Singularity requires that Earth be the first planet on
which sapient, technology-using life evolved. Although other Earth-like planets could exist,
Earth must be the most evolutionarily advanced, because otherwise we would have seen
evidence that another culture had experienced the Singularity and expanded to harness the full
computational capacity of the physical universe.
John Gribbin, a prolific science writer, defends the hypothesis in Alone in the Universe: Why
our planet is unique (2011).[64]
Michael H. Hart, an astrophysicist who proposed a narrow habitable zone based on climate
studies, edited the influential 1982 book Extraterrestrials: Where are They and authored one of
its chapters "Atmospheric Evolution, the Drake Equation and DNA: Sparse Life in an Infinite
Universe".[65]
Marc J. Defant, professor of geochemistry and volcanology, elaborated on several aspects of
the rare Earth hypothesis in his TEDx talk entitled: Why We are Alone in the Galaxy.[66] He also
wrote in his book in 1998: "I do not believe that we were the destined outcome of evolution. In
fact, we are probably the result of an incredible number of chance circumstances (one example
is the meteorite impact at the end of the Cretaceous which probably destroyed the dinosaurs
and led to mammal domination). The coincidental nature of our evolution should be clear from
this book. I might even contend that so many "coincidences" had to take place during the
history of the universe, that intelligent life on this planet may be the only life in our universe. I
do not mean to suggest that we must have been "created." I mean to say that maybe there is
not as much chance of finding life in our galaxy or universe as some would have us believe.
We may be it."[67]
Brian Cox, physicist and popular science celebrity confesses his support for the hypothesis in
his 2014 BBC production of the Human Universe.
Richard Dawkins, evolutionary biologist, notes the Fermi paradox in his book, The Greatest
Show on Earth, while discussing how life first evolved on Earth. Although we do not yet know
the precise process for how life first began on Earth, Dawkins's view is that it is an implausible
theory (i.e., improbable) given we have not encountered any evidence for life existing
 elsewhere in the universe. He concludes that life is probably very rare throughout the
universe.[68]

Criticism
Cases against the Rare Earth hypothesis take various forms.

The hypothesis appears anthropocentric

The hypothesis concludes, more or less, that complex life is rare because it can evolve only on the
surface of an Earth-like planet or on a suitable satellite of a planet. Some biologists, such as Jack
Cohen, believe this assumption too restrictive and unimaginative; they see it as a form of circular
reasoning.[69]

According to David Darling, the Rare Earth hypothesis is neither hypothesis nor prediction, but
merely a description of how life arose on Earth.[70] In his view, Ward and Brownlee have done
nothing more than select the factors that best suit their case.

What matters is not whether there's anything unusual about the Earth; there's going to be
something idiosyncratic about every planet in space. What matters is whether any of
Earth's circumstances are not only unusual but also essential for complex life. So far we've
seen nothing to suggest there is.[71]

Critics also argue that there is a link between the Rare Earth hypothesis and the unscientific idea of
intelligent design.[72]

Exoplanets around main sequence stars are being discovered in large

numbers
An increasing number of extrasolar planet discoveries are being made, with 5,640 planets in 4,155
planetary systems known as of 1 March 2024.[73] Rare Earth proponents argue life cannot arise
outside Sun-like systems, due to tidal locking and ionizing radiation outside the F7–K1 range.
However, some exobiologists have suggested that stars outside this range may give rise to life
under the right circumstances; this possibility is a central point of contention to the theory because
these late-K and M category stars make up about 82% of all hydrogen-burning stars.[22]

Current technology limits the testing of important Rare Earth criteria: surface water, tectonic
plates, a large moon and biosignatures are currently undetectable. Though planets the size of Earth
are difficult to detect and classify, scientists now think that rocky planets are common around Sun-
like stars.[74] The Earth Similarity Index (ESI) of mass, radius and temperature provides a means
of measurement, but falls short of the full Rare Earth criteria.[75][76]

Rocky planets orbiting within habitable zones may not be rare

Some argue that Rare Earth's estimates of rocky planets in habitable zones ( in the Rare Earth
equation) are too restrictive. James Kasting cites the Titius–Bode law to contend that it is a
misnomer to describe habitable zones as narrow when there is a 50% chance of at least one planet
orbiting within one.[78] In 2013, astronomers using the Kepler space telescope's data estimated
that about one-fifth of G-type and K-type stars (sun-like stars
and orange dwarfs) are expected to have an Earth-sized or
super-Earth-sized planet (1–2 Earths wide) close to an Earth-
like orbit (0.25–4 F🜨),[79] yielding about 8.8 billion of them for
the entire Milky Way Galaxy.[80][81][82]

Uncertainty over Jupiter's role

The requirement for a system to have a Jovian planet as Planets similar to Earth in size are
protector (Rare Earth equation factor ) has been challenged, being found in relatively large
affecting the number of proposed extinction events (Rare Earth number in the habitable zones of
equation factor ). Kasting's 2001 review of Rare Earth similar stars. The 2015 infographic
questions whether a Jupiter protector has any bearing on the depicts Kepler-62e, Kepler-62f,
Kepler-186f, Kepler-296e, Kepler-
incidence of complex life.[83] Computer modelling including
296f, Kepler-438b, Kepler-440b,
the 2005 Nice model and 2007 Nice 2 model yield inconclusive
Kepler-442b, Kepler-452b.[77]
results in relation to Jupiter's gravitational influence and
impacts on the inner planets.[84] A study by Horner and Jones
(2008) using computer simulation found that while the total effect on all orbital bodies within the
Solar System is unclear, Jupiter has caused more impacts on Earth than it has prevented.[85]
Lexell's Comet, a 1770 near miss that passed closer to Earth than any other comet in recorded
history, was known to be caused by the gravitational influence of Jupiter.[86]

Plate tectonics may not be unique to Earth or a requirement for complex life
Ward and Brownlee argue that for complex life to evolve (Rare
Earth equation factor ), tectonics must be present to generate
biogeochemical cycles, and predicted that such geological
features would not be found outside of Earth, pointing to a lack
of observable mountain ranges and subduction.[88] There is,
however, no scientific consensus on the evolution of plate
tectonics on Earth. Though it is believed that tectonic motion
Geological discoveries like the
first began around three billion years ago,[89] by this time
active features of Pluto's Tombaugh
Regio appear to contradict the
photosynthesis and oxygenation had already begun.
argument that geologically active Furthermore, recent studies point to plate tectonics as an
worlds like Earth are rare.[87] episodic planetary phenomenon, and that life may evolve
during periods of "stagnant-lid" rather than plate tectonic
states.[90]

Recent evidence also points to similar activity either having occurred or continuing to occur
elsewhere. The geology of Pluto, for example, described by Ward and Brownlee as "without
mountains or volcanoes ... devoid of volcanic activity",[23] has since been found to be quite the
contrary, with a geologically active surface possessing organic molecules[91] and mountain
ranges[92] like Tenzing Montes and Hillary Montes comparable in relative size to those of Earth,
and observations suggest the involvement of endogenic processes.[93] Plate tectonics has been
suggested as a hypothesis for the Martian dichotomy, and in 2012 geologist An Yin put forward
evidence for active plate tectonics on Mars.[94] Europa has long been suspected to have plate
tectonics[95] and in 2014 NASA announced evidence of active subduction.[96] Like Europa, analysis
of the surface of Jupiter's largest moon Ganymede strike-strip faulting and surface materials of
possible endogenic origin suggests that plate tectonics has also taken place there.[97] [98] In 2017,
scientists studying the geology of Charon confirmed that icy plate tectonics also operated on Pluto's
largest moon.[99] Since 2017 several studies of the geodynamics of Venus have also found that,
contrary to the view that the lithosphere of Venus is static, it is actually being deformed via active
processes similar to plate tectonics, though with less subduction, implying that geodynamics are
not a rare occurrence in Earth sized bodies.[100][101]

Kasting suggests that there is nothing unusual about the occurrence of plate tectonics in large
rocky planets and liquid water on the surface as most should generate internal heat even without
the assistance of radioactive elements.[83] Studies by Valencia[102] and Cowan[103] suggest that
plate tectonics may be inevitable for terrestrial planets Earth-sized or larger, that is, Super-Earths,
which are now known to be more common in planetary systems.[104]

Free oxygen may be neither rare nor a prerequisite for multicellular life
The hypothesis that molecular oxygen, necessary for animal life, is rare and that
a Great Oxygenation Event (Rare Earth equation factor ) could only have been
triggered and sustained by tectonics, appears to have been invalidated by more
recent discoveries.

Ward and Brownlee ask "whether oxygenation, and hence the rise of animals,
would ever have occurred on a world where there were no continents to
erode".[105] Extraterrestrial free oxygen has recently been detected around other Animals in the
genus
solid objects, including Mercury,[106] Venus,[107] Mars,[108] Jupiter's four
Spinoloricus are
Galilean moons,[109] Saturn's moons Enceladus,[110] Dione[111][112] and Rhea[113]
thought to defy
and even the atmosphere of a comet.[114] This has led scientists to speculate the paradigm
whether processes other than photosynthesis could be capable of generating an that all animal
environment rich in free oxygen. Wordsworth (2014) concludes that oxygen life on earth
generated other than through photodissociation may be likely on Earth-like needs oxygen.
exoplanets, and could actually lead to false positive detections of life.[115] Narita
(2015) suggests photocatalysis by titanium dioxide as a geochemical mechanism
for producing oxygen atmospheres.[116]

Since Ward & Brownlee's assertion that "there is irrefutable evidence that oxygen is a necessary
ingredient for animal life",[105] anaerobic metazoa have been found that indeed do metabolise
without oxygen. Spinoloricus cinziae, for example, a species discovered in the hypersaline anoxic
L'Atalante basin at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea in 2010, appears to metabolise with
hydrogen, lacking mitochondria and instead using hydrogenosomes.[117][118] Studies since 2015 of
the eukaryotic genus Monocercomonoides that lack mitochondrial organelles are also significant as
there are no detectable signs that mitochondria are part of the organism.[119] Since then further
eukaryotes, particularly parasites, have been identified to be completely absent of mitochondrial
genome, such as the 2020 discovery in Henneguya zschokkei.[120] Further investigation into
alternative metabolic pathways used by these organisms appear to present further problems for the
premise.

Stevenson (2015) has proposed other membrane alternatives for complex life in worlds without
oxygen.[121] In 2017, scientists from the NASA Astrobiology Institute discovered the necessary
chemical preconditions for the formation of azotosomes on Saturn's moon Titan, a world that lacks
atmospheric oxygen.[122] Independent studies by Schirrmeister and by Mills concluded that Earth's
multicellular life existed prior to the Great Oxygenation Event, not as a consequence of it.[123][124]
NASA scientists Hartman and McKay argue that plate tectonics may in fact slow the rise of
oxygenation (and thus stymie complex life rather than promote it).[125] Computer modelling by
Tilman Spohn in 2014 found that plate tectonics on Earth may have arisen from the effects of
complex life's emergence, rather than the other way around as the Rare Earth might suggest. The
action of lichens on rock may have contributed to the formation of subduction zones in the
presence of water.[126] Kasting argues that if oxygenation caused the Cambrian explosion then any
planet with oxygen producing photosynthesis should have complex life.[127]

A magnetosphere may not be rare or a requirement

The importance of Earth's magnetic field to the development of complex life has been disputed.
The origin of Earth's magnetic field remains a mystery[128] though the presence of a
magnetosphere appears to be relatively common for larger planetary mass objects as all Solar
System planets larger than Earth possess one.[129] There is increasing evidence of present or past
magnetic activity in terrestrial bodies such as the Moon, Ganymede, Mercury and Mars.[130]
Without sufficient measurement present studies rely heavily on modelling methods developed in
2006 by Olson & Christensen to predict field strength.[131] Using a sample of 496 planets such
models predict Kepler-186f to be one of few of Earth size that would support a magnetosphere
(though such a field around this planet has not currently been confirmed).[131] However current
recent empirical evidence points to the occurrence of much larger and more powerful fields than
those found in our Solar System, some of which cannot be explained by these models.[132][133]

Kasting argues that the atmosphere provides sufficient protection against cosmic rays even during
times of magnetic pole reversal and atmosphere loss by sputtering.[83] Kasting also dismisses the
role of the magnetic field in the evolution of eukaryotes, citing the age of the oldest known
magnetofossils.[134]

A large moon may be neither rare nor necessary

The requirement of a large moon (Rare Earth equation factor ) has also been challenged. Even if
it were required, such an occurrence may not be as unique as predicted by the Rare Earth
Hypothesis. Work by Edward Belbruno and J. Richard Gott of Princeton University suggests that
giant impactors such as those that may have formed the Moon can indeed form in planetary trojan
points (L4 or L5 Lagrangian point) which means that similar circumstances may occur in other
planetary systems.[135]

The assertion that the Moon's stabilization of Earth's obliquity

and spin is a requirement for complex life has been questioned.
Kasting argues that a moonless Earth would still possess
habitats with climates suitable for complex life and questions
whether the spin rate of a moonless Earth can be predicted.[83]
Although the giant impact theory posits that the impact
forming the Moon increased Earth's rotational speed to make a
day about 5 hours long, the Moon has slowly "stolen" much of
this speed to reduce Earth's solar day since then to about 24
Collision between two planetary hours and continues to do so: in 100 million years Earth's solar
bodies (artist concept) day will be roughly 24 hours 38 minutes (the same as Mars's
solar day); in 1 billion years, 30 hours 23 minutes. Larger
secondary bodies would exert proportionally larger tidal forces that would in turn decelerate their
primaries faster and potentially increase the solar day of a planet in all other respects like Earth to
over 120 hours within a few billion years. This long solar day would make effective heat dissipation
for organisms in the tropics and subtropics extremely difficult in a similar manner to tidal locking
to a red dwarf star. Short days (high rotation speed) cause high wind speeds at ground level. Long
days (slow rotation speed) cause the day and night temperatures to be too extreme.[136]

Many Rare Earth proponents argue that the Earth's plate tectonics would probably not exist if not
for the tidal forces of the Moon or the impact of Theia (prolonging mantle effects).[137][138] The
hypothesis that the Moon's tidal influence initiated or sustained Earth's plate tectonics remains
unproven, though at least one study implies a temporal correlation to the formation of the
Moon.[139] Evidence for the past existence of plate tectonics on planets like Mars[140] which may
never have had a large moon would counter this argument, although plate tectonics may fade
anyway before a moon is relevant to life.[137][138] Kasting argues that a large moon is not required
to initiate plate tectonics.[83]

Complex life may arise in alternative habitats

Rare Earth proponents argue that simple life may be common,
though complex life requires specific environmental conditions
to arise. Critics consider life could arise on a moon of a gas
giant, though this is less likely if life requires volcanicity. The
moon must have stresses to induce tidal heating, but not so
dramatic as seen on Jupiter's Io. However, the moon is within
the gas giant's intense radiation belts, sterilizing any
biodiversity before it can get established. Dirk Schulze-Makuch
disputes this, hypothesizing alternative biochemistries for alien
life.[141] While Rare Earth proponents argue that only microbial
extremophiles could exist in subsurface habitats beyond Earth,
some argue that complex life can also arise in these
environments. Examples of extremophile animals such as the
Hesiocaeca methanicola, an animal that inhabits ocean floor
methane clathrates substances more commonly found in the
outer Solar System, the tardigrades which can survive in the
Complex life may exist in
vacuum of space[142] or Halicephalobus mephisto which exists
environments similar to black
in crushing pressure, scorching temperatures and extremely smokers on Earth.
low oxygen levels 3.6 kilometres ( 2.2 miles) deep in the Earth's
crust,[143] are sometimes cited by critics as complex life capable
of thriving in "alien" environments. Jill Tarter counters the classic counterargument that these
species adapted to these environments rather than arose in them, by suggesting that we cannot
assume conditions for life to emerge which are not actually known.[144] There are suggestions that
complex life could arise in sub-surface conditions which may be similar to those where life may
have arisen on Earth, such as the tidally heated subsurfaces of Europa or Enceladus.[145][146]
Ancient circumvental ecosystems such as these support complex life on Earth such as Riftia
pachyptila that exist completely independent of the surface biosphere.[147]

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Further reading
Cirkovic, Milan M.; Bradbury, Robert J. (2006). "Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution,
and the Apparent Failure of SETI" (http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/milan-seti.pdf)
(PDF). New Astronomy. 11 (8): 628–639. arXiv:astro-ph/0506110 (https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-p
h/0506110). Bibcode:2006NewA...11..628C (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006NewA...1
1..628C). doi:10.1016/j.newast.2006.04.003 (https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.newast.2006.04.00
3). S2CID 1540494 (https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:1540494).
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External links
Home page (https://web.archive.org/web/20081019163719/http://www.astro.washington.edu/ra
reearth/) of Rare Earth (archival)
Reviews of Rare Earth:
Athena Andreadis (http://www.setileague.org/reviews/rarearth.htm), PhD in molecular
biology.
Kendrick Frazier (https://web.archive.org/web/20050921120946/http://www.findarticles.com/
p/articles/mi_m2843/is_6_25/ai_79794362), editor, Skeptical Inquirer.
"Galactic Habitable Zone" (https://web.archive.org/web/20030515003838/http://www.astrobio.n
et/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=139). Astrobiology
Magazine. 18 May 2001. Archived from the original on 15 May 2003.
Gregg Easterbrook, "Are We Alone? (https://www.theatlantic.com/issues/88aug/easterbr.htm)"
The Atlantic Monthly, August 1988. Article that anticipates REH in some respects.
Solstation.com: "Stars and Habitable Planets. (https://web.archive.org/web/20110628175616/ht
tp://www.solstation.com/habitable.htm)"
Recer, Paul (1 June 1999). "Radio astronomers measure sun's orbit around Milky Way" (http
s://web.archive.org/web/19991011230719/http://www.chron.com/content/interactive/space/astr
 onomy/news/1999/ds/990602.html). Houston Chronicle. Associated Press. Archived from the
original (http://www.chron.com/content/interactive/space/astronomy/news/1999/ds/990602.htm
l) on 11 October 1999.
Falcon-Lang, Howard (9 December 2011). "Life on Earth: Is our planet special?" (https://www.b
bc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16068809). BBC News.
Morison, Ian (24 September 2014). "Are We Alone? The search for life beyond the Earth" (htt
p://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/are-we-alone-the-search-for-life-beyond-the-eart
h). Gresham College.
Hall, Shannon (20 July 2017). "Earth's Tectonic Activity May Be Crucial for Life--and Rare in
Our Galaxy" (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earths-tectonic-activity-may-be-crucial-
for-life-and-rare-in-our-galaxy/?WT.mc_id=SA_DD_20170720). Scientific American.

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