Mahavir Education Trust's
SHAH & ANCHOR KUTCHHI ENGINEERING
COLLEGE
Chembur, Mumbai - 400 088
Engineering Mathematics-III,
Module-6, Probability
Lecture Number-1
Mr. Gopal Nanda, Asst. Professor, General Science & Humanity Department
Probability
Learning Outcomes
On completion of this topic, students
will be able to:
(i) Understand and describe sample spaces and events for random
experiments with tables, lists;
(ii) Interpret probabilities and use the probabilities of outcomes to
calculate probabilities of events in sample spaces;
(iii) Calculate the probabilities of joint events such as unions and
intersections from the probabilities of individual events.
Probability
Basics terms:
Random experiment:-Any phenomena or an operation or a process under
observation which has two or more than two possible outcomes is called a random
experiment or trial.
An outcome: - A result on an experiment or a trial is called an outcome.
Sample space: - The set of all possible outcome of an experiment is called sample
space. The members of the set themselves being called sample points. Sample
space is denoted by S and sample points by w1, w2, w3… thus S={ w1, w2, w3,… }
A simple example is flipping a coin. The sample space is S= {H,T}
Event: A sub-set of Sample space is called an event. For example getting a head
when a coin is tossed is an event.
Probability
The complement of an event A is all the outcomes NOT included in the event
A. It is shown by A’ or 𝐴ሜ
Exhaustive event: - Total number of possible cases in any trial is known as
exhaustive event or exhaustive cases.
Favorable event: - The number of cases favorable to an event in a trial
known as favorable event.
Mutually exclusive events: - Two events are said to be mutually exclusive
events if both can not happen simultaneously in a single trial. i.e. 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝝋
or𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0
Equally likely events: - Events are said to be equally likely events if we have
no reason to expect one in preference to another
Probability
For example
(i) In throwing of a die all six faces are equally likely to come up.
(ii)Two students A &B are not equally likely to pass an examination.
(iii)Two persons are not equally likely to be elected.
Definition of probability
Let S be the sample space and A be any event associated with a random
experiment. Let n(S) and n(A) be the number of elements of S and A then the
probability of an events A occurring is denoted by P(A), and is defined by
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑝𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴 𝑛 𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑝𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑆 = =m/n
𝑛 𝑆
Note: - i) If A is an impossible event then 𝑃 𝐴 = 0
ii) If A is a certain event then 𝑃 𝐴 = 1
iii) 𝑃 𝑆 = 1
iv) P(𝝋)= 0
Axioms
Let S be the sample space and A be an event associated with a random
experiment. Then the probability of the event A denoted by 𝑃(𝐴) and is
defined as a real number satisfying the following axiom.
(i) 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 1,
(ii) 𝑃 𝑆 = 1 ,
(iii)If A and B are two mutually exclusive events then
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
(iv) 𝑃 𝐴ሜ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴
Axioms
(v) If 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , 𝐴4 , . . . . . . . . 𝐴𝑛 . . . . is set of mutually exclusive events of a
sample space S, then
𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ 𝐴3 ∪. . . .∪ 𝐴𝑛 ∪. . . = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 +. . . . +𝑃 𝐴𝑛 +. . . .
vi) If A and B are any two events then 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
DE Morgan's Law’s
(vi) 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵ሜ = 𝑃 𝐴 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
(vii) 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐶 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 − 𝑃 𝐶 ∩ 𝐵 +
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶
Examples
1. What is the probability of getting 53 Saturdays in a leap year ?
Solution: We know that a leap year contain 366 days. That is 52 complete
weeks and two more days. These two days may be any one from following:
(Sunday, Monday), (Monday, Tuesday), (Tuesday, Wednesday), (Wednesday,
Thursday), (Thursday, Friday), (Friday, Saturday) and (Saturday, Sunday) i.e. 7
pairs hence n(S)=7
Here two pairs are favorable towards Saturdays i.e. n(A)=2.
Hence probability of a leap year containing 53 Saturdays will be=2/7
Examples
2. One card is selected at random from a standard deck of playing cards.
Determine the probability of the events:
a) A = an ace
b) B = a jack
c) C= ace and jack
d) D= ace or jack
e) E= ace and diamond
Examples
Answers:
P(ace) = 4/52 = 1/13, P(jack) = 4/52 = 1/13
P(ace and jack) = 0/52 = 0 as there is no card that is both an ace and a jack
P(ace or jack) = P(ace) + P(jack) – P(ace and jack)
= 1/13 + 1/13 -0
= 2/13
P(diamond) = 13/52
P(ace and diamond) = 1/52 (this is counting the ace of diamonds)
P(ace or diamond) = P(ace) + P(diamond) – P(ace and diamond)
= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52=16/52 = 4/13
Examples continued…..
3. A single dice is rolled one time. Find the probability of getting
i) An odd number
Ii) a number greater than 2
Iii) An odd number or a number greater than 2
Iv) A number less than 3 or greater than 5
v) 4 or 5
Examples
Answers:
i) P(odd number )=3/6
ii) P(a number greater than 2)=4/6
iii) P(odd number or a number greater than 2) =
P(odd) + P(>2) – P(odd and >2)
=3/6 + 4/6 - 2/6= 5/6
iv) A number less than 3 or greater than 5=
P(< 3 or > 5) = P(<3) + P(>5) – P(< 3 and > 5)
= 2/6 + 1/6 - 0/6=3/6 = ½
Examples
4. A problem in statistics is given to 3 students A,B and C whose chances of
solving it are ½, 3/4 and 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that the
problem will be solved?
Solution: Let us define the events as
A -The problem is solved by the student A
B -The problem is solved by the student B
C -The problem is solved by the student C
Then P(A) = ½ ,P(B) = 3/4 and P(C) = 1/4
Examples
The problem will be solved if at least one of them solves the problem. That
means we have to find 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶
i.e. 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 =1-(None of them solves the problem)
=1- 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 𝑐
=1-(1- ½ )(1-3/4) (1-1/4)
= 29/32
Examples
5.Decide whether the following events are independent or dependent
A. Selecting a king from a standard deck (A), not replacing it, and then selecting
a queen from the deck (B)
B. Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), then rolling a six-sided die and
obtaining a 6 (B)
[If 2 events are independent then we use the PRODUCT RULE:
P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B) ]
Examples
6. Suppose a die is thrown and a coin is tossed. Find the probability that a
Tail appears on the coin and a number less than 3 appears on the die.
Event A: Tail on the coin
Event B: number less than 3 on die
P (A and B) = P (A). P (B)
= P (tail on coin) .P (number less than 3)
= (1/2). (2/6)
= 1/6
