Energy 308 (2024) 133014

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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

Pathways towards net-zero emissions in Indonesia’s energy sector

Yudha Irmansyah Siregar
Department of Energy and Environmental Management, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Munketoft 3b, 24937, Flensburg, Germany

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling editor: Neven Duic This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the transition pathways towards net-zero emissions in
Indonesia’s energy sector by 2050, focussing on overcoming the country’s fossil fuel dependency. Utilising
Keywords: EnergyPLAN and MultiNode simulations across three scenarios: Nationally Determined Contribution, High
Net-zero emissions Electrification and Moderate Electrification, the paper presents thorough scenario development and cross-
Smart energy systems
sectoral analysis to capture future energy systems from both supply and demand sides. It contributes notably
EnergyPLAN
by detailing scenario-specific energy demands, such as industry sector energy efficiency and electric vehicle
MultiNode
Interconnected energy systems penetration and introducing a novel modelling approach that segments the Indonesian energy system into five
regional systems. Modelling results indicate the necessity of transitioning towards 100 % renewable energy,
emphasising the central role of electricity in future energy systems and the importance of regional connectivity in
achieving net-zero emissions. Results also reveal that the Moderate Electrification scenario offers a cost-effective
route to net-zero emissions by reducing energy demand and fully exploiting renewable energy sources. The paper
concludes with policy recommendations to boost energy efficiency, accelerate electrification, initiate inter­
connected regional energy systems, and leverage carbon capture and storage as a supplementary measure.

1. Introduction Indonesia has pledged to reduce its total emissions, as detailed in its
Updated Nationally Determined Contribution document [3]. Further­
The persistent reliance on fossil fuels has culminated in a marked more, the country has articulated a vision for deep decarbonisation in its
increase in carbon emissions, contributing to pronounced changes in recent long-term strategy [4], aiming for CO2 emissions to peak by 2030
global climate and environmental degradation. The Paris Agreement, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Despite these ambi­
established during COP21, marks a pivotal advancement in interna­ tious targets, Indonesia faces significant hurdles in transitioning from
tional efforts to combat climate change, setting an ambitious goal to cap fossil fuel dependence in its entire energy sector. In 2019, coal, natural
the increase in global temperature to below 2 ◦ C while striving to limit gas and oil accounted for approximately 84 % of the total electricity
the temperature rise to 1.5 ◦ C above pre-industrial levels by the year generation [5]. That year, fossil fuels almost entirely powered the
2100. Achieving a limit of 1.5 ◦ C in global warming necessitates a transport sector [6]. In industries, renewables contributed to about 13 %
reduction of approximately 45 % in global net anthropogenic carbon of the total energy use in the same year [6]. Currently, renewable energy
dioxide (CO2) emissions from the levels recorded in 2010 by 2030, sources remain largely untapped in Indonesia despite the country’s vast
progressing towards achieving net-zero emissions (NZE) by 2050 [1]. potential for such resources.
Reducing CO2 emissions from the energy sector is identified as a
critical strategy in addressing climate change. As of 2022, this sector was
1.1. Existing research on net-zero emissions in the energy sector
responsible for 89 % of worldwide CO2 emissions [2]. The ongoing de­
pendency on coal, natural gas, and oil has significantly contributed to
In recent years, a growing interest has been in modelling research
the sector’s carbon footprint. A transition within the energy sector re­
focused on achieving NZE in future energy systems at national and
quires substantial efforts to decrease the use of fossil fuels, promote
regional levels by 2050. Dominković et al. [7] demonstrated Southeast
energy efficiency and accelerate the adoption of renewable energy (RE)
Europe’s potential for a zero-carbon system through biomass, renewable
sources. There is a global consensus on the necessity of implementing
energy harmonisation and enhanced energy efficiency. Pradhan et al.
actions that support the energy transition towards NZE as a means to
[8] discussed Thailand’s NZE transition, emphasising energy demand
tackle climate change effectively.
reduction, renewable energy and green hydrogen, explicitly excluding

E-mail address: [email protected].

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133014
Received 3 April 2024; Received in revised form 30 July 2024; Accepted 27 August 2024
Available online 30 August 2024
0360-5442/© 2024 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

carbon capture and storage (CCS). The research by Parrado-Hernando of Southeast Asian countries on NZE targets. Their study highlights the
et al. [9] presented Spain’s RE pathway, with a specific focus on tran­ necessity of capitalising on the region’s vast RE resources and the
sitioning towards electrification and moving away from the use of nu­ cost-effectiveness of renewable and energy storage technologies over
clear and combined heat and power (CHP) units. Vats and Mathur [10] CCS to achieve long-term goals. It reveals that the region’s greenhouse
explored India’s NZE achievement via renewable integration and energy gas (GHG) emissions will peak in 2029 and then decline to zero by 2050,
efficiency. The paper by Raycheva et al. [11] introduces a novel with the net-zero pathway costing an estimated 12 USD per ton of CO2
approach for risk-informed coordinated generation and transmission equivalent abatement. However, there is a noticeable absence of
system expansion planning, focussing on Switzerland within a European scholarly literature investigating net-zero emissions pathways from both
net-zero emissions context. It integrates cost-based and risk-based demand and supply sides across Indonesia’s entire energy sector by the
planning models to ensure cost-effective, secure, and reliable power year 2050. A review of the existing Indonesian energy modelling
supply amidst transitioning energy systems. Chang et al. [12] outlined research discussed is summarised in Table 1.
Chile’s renewable shift, integrating multiple sectors and applying mar­
ginal abatement cost curves for optimal carbon strategies. These dis­
1.2. Research objective and contribution
cussed papers emphasise the diversity of approaches and strategies
adopted by different countries to achieve net-zero emissions based on
The objective of this paper is to explore potential pathways for
their specific resources, technological capabilities, and policy
Indonesia to achieve a net-zero emissions energy system by the year
preferences.
2050. It will construct alternative scenarios for the years 2030, 2040,
Research on NZE by 2050 extends to localised contexts, including
and 2050, each designed to illustrate varying future energy systems from
islands, cities, and provinces, illustrating the adaptability of strategies to
both the demand and supply sides. This paper also seeks to examine the
specific geographic and socio-economic conditions. Zhou et al. [13]
interconnectivity between various regional energy systems within the
explored NZE policies for Hinnøya Island, Norway, advocating for the
country, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these
ban on combustion engine cars and implementing carbon taxes to reduce
systems can be integrated to facilitate the transition to NZE. A further
transport emissions. In examining Växjö Municipality, Sweden, Ahmed
objective involves analysing the total annual costs associated with
and Nguyen [14] focused on developing a carbon-neutral energy system.
different NZE pathways.
They underlined the critical role of integrating renewables and bio­
This paper makes three significant contributions to the academic
energy from both local and national levels with carbon capture and
storage (BECCS). Luo et al. [15] developed a decarbonisation strategy
for Sichuan, China, proposing a mix of imported electricity, biomass, Table 1
Review of Indonesian energy modelling research on net-zero emissions energy
natural gas, and CCS technologies for achieving NZE. These studies
system by 2050.
highlight the necessity of tailored approaches to NZE, considering each
location’s distinct challenges and opportunities, particularly on the Reference Covered Covered area Research focus and
sector methods
connectivity of renewables-based energy systems.
Within the Indonesian context, grey literature and scholarly articles Reyseliani Electricity Indonesia as one This study analyses
et al. [18] energy system Indonesia’s electricity
have explored pathways to achieve net-zero emissions in the country’s
transition to 2050, using
energy system by 2050. The International Energy Agency [16] presents a the TIMES model across
roadmap highlighting renewables expansion, energy efficiency, and three scenarios: Reference,
electrification as key to reducing emissions, promoting economic growth Current Policy, and Paris
and enhancing energy security. Similarly, the Institute for Essential Agreement, focussing on
technology, investment,
Services Reform [17] suggests Indonesia can reach NZE through sig­
and emissions, employing
nificant decarbonisation, focussing on RE adoption, increased electrifi­ perfect foresight, linear
cation, and reduced fossil fuel use. Both pieces of grey literature also programming, and detailed
explore the connectivity of regional energy systems towards a temporal analysis.
Paiboonsin Electricity Indonesia as one This research uses
carbon-neutral energy system.
et al. [19] energy system OSeMOSYS to model six
Recent scholarly articles have examined Indonesia’s pathways to scenarios for Indonesia’s
achieving an NZE energy system by 2050 as a country and within a low-carbon electricity
group of studied countries. Reyseliani et al. [18] compared Indonesia’s sector, which aims to
current policy trajectory by applying the TIMES model and concluding achieve net-zero emissions
by 2050. It focuses on
that significant investment increases and technological shifts towards
investments, CO2
renewables and CCS are essential to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. emissions, and generation
Their research highlights policy gaps and the need for ambitious targets, costs and is grounded in
cleaner technologies, and market reforms to support the decarbonisation real-world data adaptation.
of Indonesia’s electricity sector. Using OSeMOSYS, Paiboonsin et al. Kanugrahan Electricity Indonesia as one This study employs the
et al. [20] energy system LEAP model to explore four
[19] examined energy transition strategies, advocating for large-scale scenarios for Indonesia’s
renewable energy adoption and coal phase-out as cost-effective power generation
methods to lower CO2 emissions towards carbon neutrality by 2050. expansion towards 2050,
The study highlights that delaying the net-zero target to 2060 leads to emphasising renewable
targets, energy security and
higher cumulative emissions, despite similar RE shares.
cost minimisation.
Other studies employ Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) in Handayani Electricity Southeast Asia This research uses LEAP
projecting NZE in Indonesia’s electricity sector by 2050. Kanugrahan et al. [21] region, assuming and NEMO to model the
et al. [20] focused on the techno-economic aspects of expanding power Indonesia as one region’s electricity sector to
generation. The study models four scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), energy system achieve net-zero emissions
by 2050. It explores various
Cost Optimisation (CO), National Plan (NP), and Zero-Carbon (ZC), scenarios, including
evaluating their costs and feasibility in meeting renewable energy tar­ renewable energy targets,
gets. The ZC scenario aims for 100 % RE by 2050 by adopting significant generation mix, GHG, and
advancements in technology and additional renewable energy sources. the costs associated with
integration.
Further, Handayani et al. [21] included Indonesia in the regional study

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

Table 2
Energy demand by sector and sub-sector in Indonesia in 2019. Source: own calculations from Refs. [5,6,38,43,44].
Sector Regional energy system Indonesia

Java-Bali Sumatera MPN Kalimantan Sulawesi

Electricity (GWh) 203,586 45,428 6355 10,872 12,312 278,553

Transport (GWh)
Road 337,014 107,612 13,853 35,410 32,707 526,595
Rail 38,157 3,721 – – – 41,878
Air 26,052 8,678 4,718 4,851 4,063 48,362
Water 12,803 19,387 13,935 2,612 13,627 62,364

Total transport 414,024 139,398 32,506 42,874 50,397 679,199

Industry (GWh)
Iron and steel 43,666 9,514 649 – 16,719 70,550
Chemical and petrochemical 56,070 9,314 5271 21,222 2,200 94,078
Non-metallic minerals 92,506 17,475 567 4,581 42,284 157,414
Pulp and paper 33,423 4,222 46 2,235 471 40,396
Others 107,556 44,376 4,352 9,395 11,694 177,373
Various 98,165 36,147 12,878 10,190 12,921 170,301

Total industry 431,388 121,049 23,763 47,624 86,290 710,112

discourse on energy transitions, particularly within the Indonesian dispatchable unit operations in a purely deterministic framework
context, by utilising EnergyPLAN and MultiNode simulations across without stochastic elements. It simulates user-customised systems
three scenarios encompassing the electricity, transport and industry without endogenous system optimisation. This tool allows users to apply
sectors. These contributions are as follows: various optimisation criteria in simulations, such as total system costs,
renewable energy shares, maximum CO2 emissions, and other factors in
1. The paper advances the existing body of literature by offering exogenous system optimisation during scenario design.
detailed scenario development that includes various assumptions of EnergyPLAN generates hourly data on energy demand and supply
future energy demand, such as applying energy efficiency measures balance data, along with the capability to incorporate all sectors related
in the industry sector and high electric vehicle (EV) penetration in to energy into the system, as shown in Fig. 1. To do that, this advanced
transportation. This addresses a notable gap in the literature con­ energy system simulation tool differentiates itself by requiring exoge­
cerning Indonesia, enabling a more thorough understanding of po­ nously defined demands and productions articulated through hourly
tential future energy systems within the country. time series data. This requirement is pivotal for capturing the inherent
2. Through an extensive cross-sectoral analysis covering all energy intermittencies associated with renewable energy sources, facilitating a
sectors and their sub-sectors, the paper provides deeper insights into more accurate and comprehensive integration of these resources into the
the operational dynamics of the future energy landscape. This energy system [24]. Unlike some scenario tools that work annually or
analysis is particularly crucial as it underlines the central role of optimisation tools using time slicing, EnergyPLAN’s hourly simulation
electricity as the backbone of future energy systems that will have level offers insights into hourly, daily, weekly, and seasonal variations,
direct connections with the transport and industry sectors. It is such as in electricity demand and hydropower production.
believed that this current research is the first attempt to analyse these EnergyPLAN can be run in two distinct simulation modes: technical
sectors in the context of a net-zero emissions energy system in and market economic [24]. The technical simulation focuses on identi­
Indonesia. fying the energy system that minimises fossil fuel consumption, whereas
3. The present research introduces a main modelling assumption that the market economic simulation aims to find the least-cost energy sys­
mirrors real-world complexities better by segmenting the Indonesian tem by incorporating the electricity market to maintain energy balances
energy system into five distinct regional systems. This separation annually. The technical simulation was chosen for this current research.
enables a more detailed and context-specific energy system analysis, To execute this simulation mode, EnergyPLAN necessitates input data on
providing a clearer picture of how regional variations and in­ energy demand and supply, including parameters such as fuel demand,
terconnections will play a critical role in Indonesia’s transition to a power plant capacity and efficiency, and costs associated with various
net-zero emissions energy system by 2050. technologies.
EnergyPLAN has been utilised in numerous academic papers to
2. Methods and research design model future energy systems based on a high share of renewable energy
sources for more than 20 years. The role of bioenergy in the energy
This section explains the tools used, the structure of reference and system was studied by Kwon & Østergaard [25] and Lund and Mathiesen
future energy systems and the cost structure applied in this research. [26]. A number of studies investigated the impact of high penetration of
wind and solar PV generation on the power system [27–30]. Refs. [7,13,
15,31] employed EnergyPLAN to explore pathways towards net-zero
2.1. Smart energy systems using EnergyPLAN and MultiNode
emissions by 2050 in their respective research areas. A recent review
paper authored by Østergaard et al. [32] summarises the application of
This research adopted the smart energy systems concept [22,23]
this simulation tool in modelling various types of energy systems at
using EnergyPLAN. Smart energy systems aim to find the most effective
different levels of geographical scope: region, country, city, and island.
and least-cost solutions by integrating all energy sectors and their
Further, MultiNode was applied to simulate an interconnection of
sub-sectors of the energy infrastructure to harness synergies and identify
regional energy systems in this present research. MultiNode is an add-on
appropriate storage and infrastructure designs. EnergyPLAN is a free­
tool for EnergyPLAN to examine the excess electricity production of
ware tool aimed at helping design national energy planning strategies by
individual energy systems and their import capacity to minimise overall
conducting technical and economic assessments to analyse the outcomes
fuel consumption within the whole energy system [33]. This add-on tool
of various choices and investments [24]. The tool employs analytical
investigates hourly energy system operations to pinpoint import or
programming, utilising pre-defined procedures for modelling freely

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

Fig. 1. Energy flows from different sectors and sources in EnergyPLAN [24].

export opportunities, enabling the transfer of surplus electricity from 2.2.1. Energy demand
one system to another if it aligns with an import opportunity. It facili­ The demand within the electricity sector encompasses all electricity
tates imports during hours of power plant production or capacity requirements from households, as well as commercial and industrial
shortage, permitting importation solely when excess electricity pro­ sectors. Data were sourced from Refs. [5,6,38,39] to establish the
duction is accessible in the interconnected energy systems, thus pre­ reference energy system. In the transport sector, the demand is divided
venting one system from initiating power generation from another into four sub-sectors: road, rail, air, and water, and it is quantified in the
system’s plant; conversely, it allows exportation only if another system form of petrol, diesel, electricity, and jet fuel. A bottom-up approach was
can substitute its production [33]. employed to calculate the road transport demand, aligning with meth­
This add-on tool should be considered within the EnergyPLAN odologies adopted in prior studies [40–42]. For the remaining transport
framework. Its primary characteristic is focussed on the technical as­ sub-sectors, energy demand data were derived from the government
pects of transmission, specifically utilising excess electricity production. report [6]. The industry sector’s demand includes all requirements from
Nonetheless, MultiNode does not have the capability to generate addi­ industrial activities that do not directly involve electricity consumption,
tional excess electricity, which presents a limitation [33]. It cannot such as fossil fuels and biomass. These demands include non-industrial
prioritise one power plant over another across different systems. (household and commercial) consumption, for instance liquid petro­
Consequently, the analysis adopts a technical simulation to EnergyPLAN leum gas, collectively categorised under various. The industry sector is
scenarios to reduce fuel consumption. divided into five sub-sectors: iron and steel, chemical and petrochem­
MultiNode was used in Refs. [33–37] to evaluate the advantages of ical, non-metallic minerals, pulp and paper and others, consuming fuel
connectivity across energy systems. These articles collectively advocate types of coal, oil, natural gas, and biomass. The others sub-sector covers
for a comprehensive approach to the design of renewable energy sys­ the main remaining industries, such as food and beverages, textiles and
tems, emphasising the importance of cross-border and cross-sectoral wearing apparel, rubber and plastic products, computer and electrical
connectivity. They support the development of smart energy systems equipment and machinery and transport equipment. Given the lack of
capable of adapting to and utilising renewable sources’ intrinsic publicly accessible data on the demand specifics of these industry
variability. sub-sectors, assumptions and calculations were conducted to fill this
gap. These calculations leveraged national statistics [38] and more
detailed industrial statistics [43] to estimate the energy demand within
2.2. Reference energy system each sub-sector.

A reference energy system covering electricity, transport and in­ 2.2.2. Energy supply
dustry sectors was defined in the reference year 2019. The structure of The inputs for the supply side of the energy model, such as power
the 2019 Indonesian energy system was used as a reference model for plant capacities and their efficiencies, were sourced from government
future energy systems. Energy demand in the three energy sec­ reports [5,6,44]. This data set contains many fossil fuel power plants,
tors—electricity, transport, and industry (including other fuel con­ which utilise coal, natural gas, and oil. Alongside these, renewable
sumption, which is called various)—was calculated and used as the main power plants, which derive energy from geothermal, hydropower,
input for EnergyPLAN. A combination of industry and various was used biomass, solar, and wind sources, were also included in the model.
to match the demand inputs in the EnergyPLAN structure. On the supply Hourly distributions of variable renewables were generated from Refs.
side, data inputs of fossil fuels and renewables were based on govern­ [39,45] and are visualised in Figs. S1A–J (Supplementary Material -
ment statistics and relevant literature. SM).

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

2.2.3. Five regional energy systems achieve that state from the current situation.
The Indonesian energy system was segmented into five isolated
regional energy systems for the year 2019: Java-Bali, Sumatera, Maluku- 2.3.2. Future energy demand
Papua-Nusa Tenggara (MPN), Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, as shown in The NDC scenario serves as the baseline for projecting future energy
Fig. 2. The results were manually aggregated to represent the entire demand, with identical electricity demand forecasts for household and
Indonesian energy system due to the distinct modelling of each regional commercial sectors across all scenarios. Electricity consumption for in­
system. In situations where regional-specific data were scarce or absent, dustry is differentiated based on the future industry structure in each
this research relied on national statistics [38]. For the electricity de­ scenario. Future road transport demand was estimated using a bottom-
mand, each regional demand was from statistics by the own-state utility up approach, incorporating GDP and population projections [4,47].
company [44] and the annual ministry report [5]. Using the total Transport sub-sectors and industry sector demands were determined
transport demand in the annual energy and economy statistics [6], the through a top-down approach.
national statistics [38] was used to determine the details of road, rail, air
and water transport demand in each region. For industries, the total 2.3.3. Future energy supply
demand was calculated from Refs. [6,43]. The national statistics [38] Coal and natural gas will remain the primary sources in the NDC
was also used to determine the sub-sector industry demands in five scenario. On the other hand, bioenergy and solar energy will be the main
regional energy systems. sources of supply for NZE of future energy systems in alternative sce­
All energy demands and detailed calculations for the road transport narios. Other renewables, such as hydropower, geothermal, and wind
demand in 2019 are shown in Table 2 and Table S1 (SM), respectively. energy, will complement each other proportionally by utilising their
Notably, the Java-Bali energy system emerged as the most significant, maximum potential in each regional energy system. Renewables po­
accounting for up to 63 % of Indonesia’s total energy demand in 2019. tential refers to Refs. [48,49]. All future power plant capacities were
Additionally, the total primary energy supply for the same year, as determined to meet electricity demand in each future scenario.
derived from EnergyPLAN, is shown in Table S2 (SM), which also serves
as model validation. 2.3.4. Future scenarios
Three future energy scenarios were developed based on different
characteristics of demand, supply and the connectivity of regional en­
2.3. Future energy system
ergy systems. On the demand side, the main differences in the scenarios
are the level of direct electrification in the industry sector and the share
This section discusses all future energy systems in 2030, 2040 and
of electric vehicles in the transport sector. Regarding supply, the
2050. It describes main features in each developed scenario.
contribution of primary renewable sources, namely bioenergy and solar,
to the overall energy mix exhibits variation across the simulated sce­
2.3.1. Net-zero emissions by 2050
narios. The carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment level also
The future energy systems of Indonesia were developed for the years
differentiates one scenario from another. The main assumptions used to
2030, 2040 and 2050, charting a course towards achieving NZE by the
develop future scenarios are shown in Table S3 (SM).
year 2050. These pathways are driven by the recent government report,
the Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 [4],
2.3.4.1. Nationally determined contribution (NDC) scenario. As
mandated by the Paris Agreement. However, it is essential to note that
explained earlier, the NDC scenario is the most progressive mitigation
the most ambitious scenario presented within the report does not
scenario in Indonesia’s LTS LCCR 2050 report [4]. The model results of
explicitly target achieving NZE in the energy sector by 2050 but rather
the NDC scenario in this research mirror the results in the report. Using
sets a goal for 2060 or sooner. This scenario, referred to in this present
available information in it, this present research deconstructed and
research as the nationally determined contribution (NDC) scenario,
restructured the Indonesian energy system following the EnergyPLAN’s
forms the basis for the future energy system developments examined in
input structure. A quantifiable cross-scenario comparison of the Ener­
the research, with an in-depth discussion in Section 2.3.4.
gyPLAN results and the LTS LCCR report can be seen in Table S4 (SM).
In addition to adhering to the NDC scenario, this research developed
The NDC scenario projects an average annual increase in electricity
two alternative scenarios aiming for NZE in the energy sector by 2050,
demand of 5.5 % from 2019 to 2050 for the residential and commercial
distinguished by varying levels of electrification. The detailed charac­
sectors, reflecting anticipated economic growth and the adoption of
teristics and main assumptions of these alternative scenarios are thor­
energy efficiency initiatives. This upward trend is largely due to a shift in
oughly discussed in Section 2.3.4. The design and development of these
preference towards electric energy systems over combustion-based al­
NZE pathways were guided by the back-casting methodology outlined
ternatives among end-users, coupled with an increased dependency on
by Rotmans et al. [46]. This methodological approach involves identi­
electricity within the commercial sub-sector for its energy needs. In the
fying a desirable future state—in this case, NZE by 2050—and then
transport sector, a significant shift towards public transit is anticipated,
working backwards to establish the steps and interventions required to

Fig. 2. Indonesia’s regional energy systems and its illustrative transmission lines in 2050.

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

especially in major urban areas, to mitigate the challenges posed by the 2.3.4.4. Moderate electrification (ME) scenario. The ME scenario was
excessive use of private vehicles and resulting traffic congestion. For designed to provide a distinctive pathway towards NZE by 2050 by
smaller cities, inter-city connectivity is expected to be achieved through lowering electricity demand in the industry and transport sectors.
trains and large buses, whereas air travel will serve as the primary mode Reduced energy demand in industries will be similar to the HE scenario.
of connecting major cities and islands, complemented by ships and The main difference is that hydrogen energy is not an option in the ME
ferries for inter-island journeys. Demand is predicted to follow a scenario. This will substantially reduce the electricity needed to produce
business-as-usual trajectory within the industrial sector, with no specific green hydrogen. This assumption also extends to the transport sector,
interventions envisaged to curb its growth. where a lesser penetration of electric vehicles mirrors a more moderate
From 2030 to 2050, the electricity sector is expected to be primarily approach to the adoption of electricity.
supplied by coal and natural gas, alongside the widespread adoption of A qualitative comparison of energy demand across the three sce­
carbon capture and storage (CCS) in most coal power plants. Decar­ narios in the simulated years is shown in Table 3. At the same time,
bonisation efforts in this scenario will be driven by deploying renew­ Table S5 (SM) offers a detailed quantitative breakdown of energy de­
ables, such as hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind, and biomass. mands by each sector.
Furthermore, biomass-coal cofiring power plants connected to biomass
energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) systems are expected to 2.4. Cost structure and carbon price
contribute to this decarbonisation effort. Biofuels, oil fuels and elec­
tricity are the main sources in the transport sector. The crude palm oil EnergyPLAN determines the annual levelised cost for each technol­
(CPO)-based biofuel initiative is deemed effective and will persist until ogy by assessing their investment costs, operations and maintenance
2050 by delivering biofuel with increased biodiesel proportions. The (O&M) expenses, technical lifespan, and the applied discount rate. This
energy supply for industries will shift from predominantly coal and oil includes the costs associated with road vehicles and transmission in a
fuels to natural gas, renewables and electricity. The adoption of CCS connected energy system. Moreover, EnergyPLAN computes the yearly
technology is also assumed in the industry sector, particularly industries expenses associated with fuel consumption, such as coal for thermal
that consume natural gas in their processing plants. power plants or oil derivatives for combustion-based cars. Detailed in­
Indonesia’s LTS LCCR 2050 report lacks details regarding the inter­ formation on the costs of the modelled technologies is available in
connectivity of regional energy systems. This current research proceeds Tables S6–7 (SM), with projected fuel costs presented in Table S8 (SM).
on the premise that, within the NDC scenario, regional energy systems The current research set a discount rate of 4 % and applied a CO2 pricing
operate independently, with each regional system functioning in isola­ scheme of USD 30, USD 40 and USD 50 per ton for the years 2030, 2040
tion across all considered time horizons. The model results of the entire and 2050, respectively.
Indonesian energy system were aggregated manually.
3. Results and discussion
2.3.4.2. Alternative scenarios towards NZE by 2050. In developing
alternative scenarios, the main guideline was to initially focus on min­ This section discusses this research’s main results and its limitations
imising energy demand through the increased integration of electric and uncertainties.
vehicles and implementing energy efficiency measures within industrial
activities. This principal guideline was implemented by referring to 3.1. Pathways towards net-zero emissions (NZE)
recent relevant research and putting the Indonesian economy and en­
ergy context into scenario development. On the supply side, pathways Amongst the three scenarios analysed, the NDC scenario projects the
towards NZE by 2050 are explored by simulating future energy scenarios highest primary energy supply in 2030, 2040 and 2050, as shown in
with 100 % renewable energy-based electricity as the main backbone of Fig. 3. This is attributable to the scenario’s demand-side assumptions,
the energy system. Electricity will replace the majority use of fossil fuels. which lead to increased energy consumption relative to the alternative
Bioenergy will substitute the remaining fossil fuels and compensate scenarios. The NDC scenario continues to depend on fossil fuels to meet
unabated fossil energy with BECSS. Two alternative scenarios, high the energy system’s needs from 2030 to 2050, with the absolute shares
electrification (HE) and moderate electrification (ME), were developed of coal, oil and natural gas rising over the simulation period. The share
to capture different NZE pathways. of coal, oil and natural gas will increase in absolute terms over the
simulated years. The utilisation of CCS and BECCS in this scenario can
2.3.4.3. High electrification (HE) scenario. This scenario was developed only reduce about 30 % of emitted CO2 in 2050 compared to the 2040
to investigate a pathway characterised by extensive electricity pene­ CO2 emissions.
tration across the entire energy system, predicated on the deployment of In contrast, in the alternative scenarios aimed at achieving NZE, the
advanced technologies. The HE scenario applied methods developed by future energy systems will predominantly rely on bioenergy and solar
Johannsen et al. [50] for integrating energy efficiency measures and energy. Due to reduced energy demands, these scenarios will utilise
transitioning to a 100 % RE-based by 2050 in the industry sector. De­ fewer energy sources than the NDC scenario. CO2 emissions in these
mand reductions will be observed across various industrial sub-sectors; alternative scenarios are anticipated to peak in 2030, decrease signifi­
for instance, in 2050, it will decrease up to 24 % in the non-metallic cantly by 2040, and reach net-zero by 2050, when electricity production
minerals sub-sector relative to projections under the NDC scenario. will be entirely renewable. Geothermal, hydropower, and wind energy
About 60 % of the energy demand in the industry sector in 2050 will be potentials will be fully exploited, with BECCS compensating for the
from electricity. The HE scenario draws on the work of Næss et al. [51] remaining oil usage in transportation.
to determine the electrification rate in non-road transport sub-sectors. A key distinction between the NDC and the alternative scenarios is
By 2050, it is expected that nearly 90 % of the energy demand in the the assumed reduction of energy demand in the transport and industrial
transport sector will be met by electricity, leading to an electricity de­ sectors in the alternative scenarios. By 2050, the overall energy demand
mand roughly twice that of the NDC scenario. The adoption of green in the industry is expected to decrease by up to 15 %, a relatively
hydrogen technology is anticipated to replace the use of natural gas in moderate figure compared to European energy research, which suggests
industrial applications and oil derivatives in transportation. Given its potential reductions of up to 40 % from its baseline scenario [50]. This
maximisation of renewable energy potential, the Java-Bali energy sys­ moderation reflects Indonesia’s industrial sector’s lower complexity and
tem will require electricity imports from adjacent regions to meet its maturity, especially in energy-intensive sub-sectors, such as
needs. non-metallic minerals, chemicals, petrochemicals and iron and steel.
Applying high recycling measures, best available technologies and

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Table 3
Energy demand comparison of three scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050.
Energy 2030 scenario 2040 scenario 2050 scenario
demand
Nationally High Moderate NDC HE ME NDC HE ME
Determined electrification electrification
Contribution (HE) (ME)
(NDC)

Electricity in line with economy and population growth; EE measures in household and commercial sub-sectors implemented
Transport very limited moderate low moderate high moderate moderate very high high
penetration of penetration of penetration of penetration of penetration of penetration penetration of penetration of penetration
electric vehicle EV EV EV; high share EV of EV EV; high share EV; hydrogen of EV
(EV) of biofuels of biofuels adoption
Industry no specific low EE low EE no specific EE moderate EE moderate EE no specific high EE high EE
energy measures measures measures measures measures energy measures measures
efficiency (EE) implemented implemented implemented implemented; implemented efficiency implemented; implemented
measures hydrogen measures hydrogen
implemented adoption implemented adoption

Fig. 3. Primary energy supply by sources and CO2 emissions from all scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050.

innovative measures [50] in the non-metallic minerals sub-sector, the industrial sectors and by sourcing the entire energy system predomi­
demand will decrease up to 24 % in 2050 compared to the NDC scenario. nantly from renewable energy. This reduced energy demand will
In the iron and steel sub-sector, the reduced demand will be up to 26 % improve the resilience of energy independency from the context of en­
in the same targeted year. Similar principles apply in the transport ergy security. The dependence on oil imports for transport and industrial
sector, where electrification will lead to a 20 % reduction in energy sectors will be completely shifted to domestic energy from renewables.
demand by 2050 compared to the NDC scenario. By 2050, the ME scenario will achieve the lowest primary energy supply
In the HE and ME scenarios, renewable energy sources will by implementing a relatively lower degree of electrification in the entire
increasingly penetrate the future energy system up to 2050. Bioenergy energy system compared to the HE scenario.
will be the primary renewable source across 2030, 2040, and 2050, Further examination of the electricity sector reveals a completely
supporting the electricity baseload in regions with high energy demand. different picture of future energy systems envisioned by the NDC sce­
Bioenergy, through biofuels in transportation and biomass in industry, nario versus the alternative scenarios, as shown in Fig. 4. From 2040 to
will also contribute to the NZE objectives in both scenarios. A substantial 2050, the total primary energy supply within the electricity sector is
increase in solar PV will occur from 2030 to 2040. The high growth in substantially higher in the HE and ME scenarios compared to the NDC
electricity demand will drive this rapid development of solar PV. scenario. In the NDC scenario, the proportion of the primary energy
CO2 emissions are projected to decrease across all scenarios over supply allocated to electricity relative to all sectors is estimated to be
time, as shown in Fig. 3. Despite an increase in fossil fuel usage, the NDC approximately 45 % in 2040, increasing to 52 % in 2050. This ratio is
scenario’s CO2 emissions are expected to decline through extensive CCS projected to rise significantly in the alternative scenarios, reaching up to
and BECCS implementation in power plants and heavy industry pro­ 66 % in 2040 and 75 % in 2050 in the ME scenario, with even higher
cessing plants. While both alternative scenarios are set to achieve zero percentages in the HE scenario. Notably, the HE scenario exhibits a
CO2 emissions by 2050, differences are noted in 2030 and 2040, with the greater demand for electricity in the transport and industry sectors than
HE scenario emitting approximately 3 % more CO2 in 2030 and 7 % the ME scenario, with the difference expected to widen to 254 TWh in
more in 2040 compared to the ME scenario due to higher coal con­ 2050.
sumption in industries within the HE scenario. This coal usage will be Regarding energy sources, the NDC scenario will continue to pri­
replaced by biomass in the ME scenario, particularly by 2040. marily rely on coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS for electricity
Thus, the HE and ME scenarios delineate pathways toward NZE by generation. On the other hand, starting in 2040, renewables will almost
2050 through a reduction in energy demand across the transport and entirely supply the electricity sector in the HE and ME scenarios.

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

Fig. 4. Primary energy supply by sources in the electricity sector in all scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050.

Biomass power plants are anticipated to serve as the main electricity geothermal, wind, and solar energy, Java-Bali will not pursue the
producers, especially designed to satisfy the electricity needs of the development of additional biomass power plants to satisfy its electricity
largest regional energy consumers: Java-Bali, Sumatera and Sulawesi. needs in the event of an electricity surplus from adjacent regions. The
The full exploitation of hydropower, geothermal, and wind energy po­ establishment of new transmission lines to facilitate these connections is
tential, alongside the integration of pumped hydro electricity storage depicted in Fig. 2, with each line drawn to represent the shortest feasible
(PHES) and extensive solar PV deployment, will address the electricity distance between systems. The assumptions for the transmission lines
required in these regions. In regions with abundant renewable energy include direct links between Java-Bali and Sumatera, as well as Java-
potential and relatively lower electricity demands, such as Maluku- Bali and Kalimantan. For the Java-Bali to MPN line, a simplified
Papua-Nusa Tenggara (MPN) and Kalimantan, the energy systems will assumption of a 400 km distance accommodates the complexity of
fully capitalise on solar PV, hydropower, geothermal, and wind energy, connecting across MPN’s medium to large islands, in contrast to the
complemented by PHES, to meet their 2050 electricity demands. more straightforward connections with Sumatera and Kalimantan.
Sulawesi will be simulated in an isolated energy system in the HE and
ME scenarios 2050.
3.2. Interconnected regional energy systems The energy systems of Sumatera, MPN, and Kalimantan are expected
to generate surplus electricity, mainly from hydropower, geothermal,
A fundamental assumption underpinning the NZE energy system wind, and solar PV, with the potential of hydropower, geothermal and
within the HE and ME scenarios is the interlinking of regional energy wind energy reaching their maximum capacity by 2050. A critical
systems. Simulation results of interconnected several energy systems are assumption for the NZE pathways in the HE and ME scenarios is the
shown in Fig. 5. By 2050, the Java-Bali energy system is anticipated to maximisation of renewable energy sources, especially solar energy, in
establish connections with the energy systems of Sumatera, Maluku- Sumatera, MPN, and Kalimantan for electricity exports to the Java-Bali
Papua-Nusa Tenggara (MPN) and Kalimantan. As the primary regional system. The ME scenario anticipates a reduced total transmission
energy consumer having maximised its RE potential: hydropower,

Fig. 5. Electricity demand, including import and export, in all regional energy systems from all scenarios in 2050.

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

capacity requirement compared to the HE scenario, which is attributed scenario and 79 % of the HE scenario. This scenario’s comparatively
to the ME scenario’s relatively moderate level of electrification across lower investment costs suggest a more balanced approach to moderate
the entire energy system. electrification and the flexible expansion of renewable energy, resulting
An interconnected energy system relying on 100 % RE-based elec­ in the lowest total annual costs in 2030, 2040 and 2050 among the
tricity as the primary end-use of energy systems will open more con­ scenarios.
nectivity between regions in Indonesia. This transformation is poised to In stark contrast with the NDC scenario, both the HE and ME sce­
reshape the Indonesian energy landscape and, by extension, potentially narios exhibit a complete absence of CO2 cost in 2050, a direct conse­
influence the future economic structure of the country. To further quence of their successful transition to net-zero emissions. The extended
extent, this interconnection of five energy systems could also transform analysis of total annual costs across 2030, 2040 and 2050 underscores
socio-economic aspects in Indonesia. The dependency on electricity the environmental and economic viability of the HE and ME scenarios
import-export in the country would create a new dimension of daily life over the NDC scenario. The two alternative scenarios demonstrate that
in the future. Given this current research’s assumption of no significant substantial upfront investments in electrification and renewable energy
economic structural changes—wherein Java-Bali remains the largest can significantly reduce long-term variable and fixed operation costs,
regional energy consumer from 2030 to 2050—the interplay between an offering environmentally and economically sound pathways for Indo­
interconnected energy system and future economic structure emerges as nesia’s energy sector.
a pivotal area for future research. Further analysis of the CO2 cost under the HE and ME scenarios
relative to the NDC scenario reveals more effective pathways to net-zero
emissions despite necessitating higher initial investments. The simula­
3.3. Total annual costs
tion results indicate that the widespread adoption of CCS technologies in
most coal-fired power plants within the NDC scenario by 2050 will not
Fig. 6 shows the breakdown of the total annual costs from all sce­
only fail to mitigate CO2 emissions significantly but also escalate the
narios in 2030, 2040 and 2050. The NDC scenario incurs higher total
total annual costs. Specifically, the incremental costs associated with
yearly costs than the other two scenarios, predominantly driven by a
CCS implementation are projected to increase the total annual costs by
significant percentage of variable costs along the simulated time. The
approximately 6 % or about USD 19.3 billion.
variable costs ratio against the total annual costs in the NDC scenar­
io—rising from 65 % in 2030 to over 70 % by 2050—reflects a systemic
dependence on fossil fuels. Consequently, the CO2 cost component 3.4. Limitation and uncertainties
within this scenario’s annual costs forms a substantial burden. While
substantial, the investment costs of this scenario are lower relative to the Despite yielding significant results and thorough discussions, this
higher spent HE and ME scenarios. The NDC scenario’s escalating costs, present research has several limitations. One limitation involves
driven by its high variable costs, such as coal and natural gas for power dividing Indonesia into five regional energy systems. Regions with
plants and oil for transport, and CO2 cost component, signal the eco­ numerous large and medium-sized islands, such as Sumatra, MNP and
nomic vulnerabilities of a pathway tethered to high fossil energy Sulawesi, could be segmented into more than one individual energy
consumption. system. Another limitation is the simplified top-down approach used to
Meanwhile, the HE and ME scenarios demonstrate a marked increase estimate energy demand in the industrial sector. Although recent studies
in investment costs over the time horizons, indicative of the capital have employed this approach, this current research was constrained by
required for a higher degree of electrification, such as electric vehicles the lack of detailed Indonesian data within industry sub-sectors.
and large-scale PV farms. However, the variable costs are much lower in Regarding the tools used, two additional limitations are noteworthy.
these two scenarios compared to the NDC scenario. The alternative In EnergyPLAN, thermal power plants are aggregated into a single large-
scenarios will not spend any fossil fuel costs for power plants and capacity plant, requiring proportional distribution of fuel shares if
combustion engine cars. Over the years, the HE scenario appears to bear multiple fuel types are used. In MultiNode, the excess electricity pro­
the highest costs, particularly in investment, such as the adoption of duction can only be utilised for export if it is from variable renewables.
green hydrogen in 2050. By 2050, the ME scenario emerges as a Produced electricity from thermal power plants, such as from coal and
compromise, with its total costs constituting about 63 % of the NDC biomass, cannot be exported.

Fig. 6. Total annual costs breakdown from all scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050.

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Y.I. Siregar Energy 308 (2024) 133014

One important result of the research is the necessity for a substantial Future research will focus on detailed energy simulations of industry
increase in bioenergy consumption to achieve an NZE system. For sectors and sub-sectors. This could include applying a bottom-up
instance, in the 2050 Java-Bali system under the ME scenario, approx­ approach to define future energy demand in each sub-sector. The
imately 75 % of the total primary energy supply is projected to come research could also be underpinned by a more thorough assessment of
from bioenergy. Bioenergy is prioritised only after all other renewable the 100 % renewable energy-based industry sector. Additionally, the
sources have reached their maximum potential. Referring to the global connectivity of sub-regional energy systems, particularly in areas with
sustainable bioenergy consumption per capita at 10–129 GJ in 2050 unique geographical conditions and consisting of many islands like the
[52], this current research estimates a value within that range, specif­ MPN energy system, warrants closer examination. Such studies will
ically 31–45 GJ per capita by 2050. It is worth noting that there is a lack enhance an understanding of the operational dynamics and potential of
of literature projecting the potential of various types of bioenergy, such Indonesia’s diverse energy landscape.
as wood crops, wood processing residues, animal waste, and biofuels, in
Indonesia for 2050. This research’s scope was limited in terms of CRediT authorship contribution statement
assessing detailed sustainability criteria, such as land requirements, to
meet the projected per capita bioenergy consumption. Consequently, Yudha Irmansyah Siregar: Writing – review & editing, Writing –
there is uncertainty regarding the potential of bioenergy. It is crucial to original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Methodology, Formal
have reliable estimates of future bioenergy potentials in Indonesia. analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization.
All foundational assumptions employed in this research are subject
to uncertainties that could significantly alter the structure of the Indo­
Declaration of competing interest
nesian economy and, hence, the pathways of its energy system. For
instance, the projection of a 5.5 % average annual growth in electricity
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
demand from 2019 to 2050 needs careful consideration. While this es­
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
timate may seem optimistic, it is grounded in governmental forecasts
the work reported in this paper.
[4]. Another example is that the variability of renewable energy sources,
such as solar and wind, represents another critical assumption affecting
Data availability
energy supply. The uncertain future electricity output from these re­
newables could impact not only the mix of the primary energy supply
Data will be made available on request.
but also modify demand dynamics in response to fluctuations in elec­
tricity availability.
Acknowledgments
4. Conclusion and policy recommendation
The author acknowledges a doctoral scholarship from the DAAD
(German Academic Exchange Service) and would like to thank Prof. Dr
This paper has presented two potential pathways towards net-zero
Bernd Möller for his valuable comments on the earlier drafts of this
emissions (NZE) in Indonesia’s energy sector by 2050. Pathways from
paper.
the High Electrification (HE) and Moderate Electrification (ME) sce­
narios could achieve NZE in 2050 by reducing energy demand and
Appendix A. Supplementary data
supplying 100 % renewable energy in the electricity and industry sec­
tors. The connectivity of several regional energy systems could maxi­
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
mise renewable energy potential. The analysis of total annual costs
org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133014.
reveals that the ME scenario offers a cost-effective route to the NZE
energy system. Furthermore, to accelerate net-zero emissions in Indo­
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