Assignment Session 2023-24MBA- II Year

Maximum Marks : 20

Course Title – Quantitative Techniques Course Code : MP-204

Note : The Internal Assignment has been divided into three sections A, B and C. Write answer as

per the given instructions.

Section-A

(Very Short Answer Type Questions)

Note : Answer all four questions. As per the question you delimit your answer in one word, one

sentence or maximum up to 30 words. Each question carries 1 Mark. 4 Q x 1 = 04

Q.1 Define Quantitative Techniques.

Quantitative techniques are a collection of programming and statistical techniques that influence your
decision-making process, especially about industry or business. It considers the use of numbers,
mathematical expressions, and symbols.

Q.2 Define poisson distribution.

A Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It gives the probability of an event

happening a certain number of times (k) within a given interval of time or space. The Poisson
distribution has only one parameter, λ (lambda), which is the mean number of events.

Q.3 Define decision tree.

A decision tree is a non-parametric supervised learning algorithm, which is utilized for both
classification and regression tasks. It has a hierarchical, tree structure, which consists of a root node,
branches, internal nodes and leaf nodes.

Q.4 What do you understand by Game Theory?

Section-B

(Short Answer Questions)

Note : Answer any 2 questions. Each answer should not exceed 200 words. Each question carries

4 marks. 2 Q x 4 = 08

Q.1 Discuss the properties of Regression Coefficient.

Regression coefficients determine the slope of the line which is the change in the independent
variable for the unit change in the independent variable. So they are also known as the slope
coefficient. They are classified into three. They are simple partial and multiple, positive and
negative, and linear and non-linear.

In the linear regression line, the equation is given by Y = b0 + b1X. Here b0 is a constant and b1 is
the regression coefficient.

Important Properties of Regression Coefficient

1. The regression coefficient is denoted by b.

2. We express it in the form of an original unit of data.

3. The regression coefficient of y on x is denoted by byx. The regression coefficient of x on y is

denoted by bxy.

4. If one regression coefficient is greater than 1, then the other will be less than 1.

5. They are not independent of the change of scale. There will be change in the regression
coefficient if x and y are multiplied by any constant.

6. AM of both regression coefficients is greater than or equal to the coefficient of correlation.

7. GM between the two regression coefficients is equal to the correlation coefficient.

8. If bxy is positive, then byx is also positive and vice versa.

Q.3 Differentiate between decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

Point Risk Uncertainty

1 Relates to known and measurable Involves unknown probabilities and
probabilities unpredictable outcomes
2 Can be quantified and assessed objectively Difficult to quantify or assess due to lack
of information
3 Arises from identifiable events or situations Arises from ambiguity and lack of
information
4 Involves known potential outcomes and their Involves unknown potential outcomes
likelihoods and their probabilities
5 Allows for calculation of expected values and Does not allow for precise calculations
probabilities or predictions
6 Can be managed and mitigated through risk Cannot be fully managed or eliminated
management strategies
 7 Provides a basis for decision-making and Requires adaptive and flexible
planning approaches
8 Involves both positive and negative Can lead to both opportunities and
consequences threats
9 Frequently encountered in structured and Common in dynamic and complex
well-defined environments environments
10 Associated with potential losses or gains Associated with ambiguity and limited
information

Section-C

(Long Answer Questions)

Note : Answer any one question. You have to delimit your each answer maximum up to 800

words. Each question carries 8 marks. 1 Q x 8 = 08

Q.1 Illustrate the various Quantitative Techniques used in modern times for business decision

making. Support your answer using appropriate examples.

Q.2 What do you understand by Time Series Analysis? Briefly explain the components of

time series.

Components of Time Series

You may have heard people saying that the price of a particular commodity has increased or
decreased with time. This commodity can be anything like gold, silver, any eatables, petrol,
diesel etc. Also, you may have heard that the rate of interest has increased in banks. The rate of
interest for home loans has decreased.

Time Series
How do people get to know that the price of a commodity has increased over a period of time?
They can do so by comparing the prices of the commodity for a set of a time period. A set of
observations ordered with respect to the successive time periods is a time series.

In other words, the arrangement of data in accordance with their time of occurrence is a time
series. It is the chronological arrangement of data. Here, time is just a way in which one can
relate the entire phenomenon to suitable reference points. Time can be hours, days, months or
years.
A time series depicts the relationship between two variables. Time is one of those variables and
the second is any quantitative variable. It is not necessary that the relationship always shows
increment in the change of the variable with reference to time. The relation is not always
decreasing too.

It may be increasing for some and decreasing for some points in time. Can you think of any such
example? The temperature of a particular city in a particular week or a month is one of those
examples.

Uses of Time Series

 The most important use of studying time series is that it helps us to predict the future behaviour
of the variable based on past experience
 It is helpful for business planning as it helps in comparing the actual current performance with
the expected one
 From time series, we get to study the past behaviour of the phenomenon or the variable under
consideration
 We can compare the changes in the values of different variables at different times or places, etc.

Components for Time Series Analysis

The various reasons or the forces which affect the values of an observation in a time series are
the components of a time series. The four categories of the components of time series are

 Trend
 Seasonal Variations
 Cyclic Variations
 Random or Irregular movements

Seasonal and Cyclic Variations are the periodic changes or short-term fluctuations.

Trend
The trend shows the general tendency of the data to increase or decrease during a long period of
time. A trend is a smooth, general, long-term, average tendency. It is not always necessary that
the increase or decrease is in the same direction throughout the given period of time.

It is observable that the tendencies may increase, decrease or are stable in different sections of
time. But the overall trend must be upward, downward or stable. The population, agricultural
production, items manufactured, number of births and deaths, number of industry or any factory,
number of schools or colleges are some of its example showing some kind of tendencies of
movement.

Linear and Non-Linear Trend

If we plot the time series values on a graph in accordance with time t. The pattern of the data
clustering shows the type of trend. If the set of data cluster more or less round a straight line,
then the trend is linear otherwise it is non-linear (Curvilinear).

Periodic Fluctuations
There are some components in a time series which tend to repeat themselves over a certain
period of time. They act in a regular spasmodic manner.

Seasonal Variations

These are the rhythmic forces which operate in a regular and periodic manner over a span of less
than a year. They have the same or almost the same pattern during a period of 12 months. This
variation will be present in a time series if the data are recorded hourly, daily, weekly, quarterly,
or monthly.

These variations come into play either because of the natural forces or man-made conventions.
The various seasons or climatic conditions play an important role in seasonal variations. Such as
production of crops depends on seasons, the sale of umbrella and raincoats in the rainy season,
and the sale of electric fans and A.C. shoots up in summer seasons.

The effect of man-made conventions such as some festivals, customs, habits, fashions, and some
occasions like marriage is easily noticeable. They recur themselves year after year. An upswing
in a season should not be taken as an indicator of better business conditions.

Cyclic Variations

The variations in a time series which operate themselves over a span of more than one year are
the cyclic variations. This oscillatory movement has a period of oscillation of more than a year.
One complete period is a cycle. This cyclic movement is sometimes called the ‘Business Cycle’.

It is a four-phase cycle comprising of the phases of prosperity, recession, depression, and

recovery. The cyclic variation may be regular are not periodic. The upswings and the
downswings in business depend upon the joint nature of the economic forces and the interaction
between them.

Random or Irregular Movements

There is another factor which causes the variation in the variable under study. They are not
regular variations and are purely random or irregular. These fluctuations are unforeseen,
uncontrollable, unpredictable, and are erratic. These forces are earthquakes, wars, flood, famines,
and any other disasters.