Forecasting for the energy system
1 « Short » timescales
Riwal Plougonven,
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique / IPSL
Ecole Polytechnique
Prelude
Forecasting,
what is familiar ?
Prelude
Forecasting,
what is familiar ?
Forecast for Wednesday 02/10/2024,
initiated Saturday 28/09/2024
Prelude
Forecasting,
what is familiar ?
Prelude
Forecasting,
what is familiar ?
Further examples of charts, for October 2, 2024
Mean Sea Level pressure and 850 hPa wind 2 m tempertature and 30 m wind
100 m wind Pseudo-satellite image of clouds
- what is represented on these maps ? Why pressure ?
- how are these forecasts obtained ? How do we model weather ?
- how reliable is this forecast ? How can we quantify this ?
- what are sources of uncertainty ? how far in time can we forecast ?
- how do we apply these forecasts to the energy sector ?
- what other sources of information for the energy sector ?
- what is represented on these maps ? Why pressure ?
- how are these forecasts obtained ? How do we model weather ?
- how reliable is this forecast ? How can we quantify this ?
- what are sources of uncertainty ? how far in time can we forecast ?
- how do we apply these forecasts to the energy sector ?
- what other sources of information for the energy sector ?
Outline
1. Atmospheric circulation
2. What is a Numerical Weather Prediction Model
3. Forecasting for energy – examples for short timescales
1. Atmospheric circulation
Motivations to briefly discuss some aspects of atmospheric circulation :
drivers of atmospheric circulation
main processes affecting renewable energies (focus on wind)
timescales involved
→ notion on what may be expected
Starting point : visualization of the atmospheric flow
https://earth.nullschool.net/
1. Atmospheric circulation : examples for 28/09/2024, from earth.nullschool.net
Atlantic / Europe Atlantic / Europe
Surface 250 hPa (~10 km)
Low pressure Strong,
systems over meandering
the Atlantic eastward winds
500 hPa (~5 km) 70 hPa (~18 km)
1. Atmospheric circulation : examples for 28/09/2024, from earth.nullschool.net
South Pole South Pole
Surface South Pole 250 hPa (~10 km) South Pole
Low pressure Strong,
systems over meandering
the Atlantic eastward winds :
‘jet stream’
500 hPa (~5 km) 70 hPa (~18 km)
What is the fluid we wish to describe ?
What is the fluid we wish to describe ?
Intuition / personal experience may suggest a three-dimensional fluid with complex
structures… true, on certain scales
What is the fluid we wish to describe ?
(left) Felix Baumgartner just before (right) The atmosphere seen from
his famous jump, 14 October 2012, the Internation Space Station.
from 38 960 m altitude above
New Mexico, U.S.A.
Thin layer ?
Aspect ratio
Radius of the Earth : ___ km ?
Earth circumference : ___ km ?
1 degree of latitude : ___ km ?
1 degree of longitude : ___ km ?
Weight of the atmosphere ? ___ kg
‘Thickness’ of the atmosphere ? ___ km
troposphere : ~ 10 km
(more precisely, height of the tropopause :
~ 8 km at polar latitudes
~ 10 km in midlatitutdes
~ 16 km in the Tropics )
Typical horizontal scale ___ km
Typical aspect ratio : L / H ~ ? ___
Illustration from oceanography in the next few slides.
Aspect ratio
Radius of the Earth : 6370 km
Earth circumference : 40 000 km
1 degree of latitude : 111 km
1 degree of longitude : 111 x cos(f) km , with f the latitude
Weight of the atmosphere ? ___ kg
‘Thickness’ of the atmosphere ? ~10 km ? (roughly 3/4 of the mass)
troposphere : ~ 10 km in extra-tropics
(more precisely, height of the tropopause :
~ 8 km at polar latitudes
~ 10 km in midlatitutdes
~ 16 km in the Tropics )
Typical horizontal scale : 1000 km
Typical aspect ratio : L / H ~ ? 100
Aspect ratio
Radius of the Earth : 6370 km
Earth circumference : 40 000 km
1 degree of latitude : 111 km
1 degree of longitude : 111 x cos(f) km , with f the latitude
Weight of the atmosphere ? ~ 5e18 kg (Earth’s surface (R~6370 km) x
mean sea level pressure (1e5 Pa))
Given the aspect ratio, and typical scales and orders of magnitude,
what terms dominate in the equations ?
EQUATIONS OF MOTION
Newton’s second law :
Acceleration Pressure Gravity Friction
gradient
and where
EQUATIONS OF MOTION
But : rotating frame of reference :
Motion relative to a galilean frame :
R
Earth Rate of rotation on Earth :
EQUATIONS OF MOTION
Newton’s second law in a rotating frame
(with a slight change of coordinates to get
rid of the centrifugal term) :
Coriolis
‘force’
EQUATIONS OF MOTION
In local coordinates : x in the West-East direction,
y in the South-North direction,
z in the local vertical
y
z
Projection of W on the local vertical
Coriolis parameter :
For example, at 45°N :
(corresponding period in hours ?)
z
VERTICAL MOMENTUM EQUATION
Scaling of the equation for the vertical component :
(estimating the order of magnitude of each term)
Equation :
Order of
magnitude :
With
Order of
magnitude :
→ HYDROSTATIC BALANCE
Scaling of the equation for the vertical component :
(estimating the order of magnitude of each term)
Equation :
To an excellent approximation,
the dominant balance is hydrostatic :
between gravity and the pressure force
Order of
magnitude :
HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM EQUATION
Scaling of the equation for the x component :
(estimating the order of magnitude of each term)
Equation :
HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM EQUATION
Scaling of the equation for the x component :
(estimating the order of magnitude of each term)
Equation :
Order of
magnitude :
With
GEOSTROPHIC BALANCE
Scaling of the equation for the x component :
(estimating the order of magnitude of each term)
Equation :
To a good approximation,
the dominant balance is geostrophic :
between the ‘Coriolis force’ and pressure
GEOSTROPHIC AND HYDROSTATIC BALANCE
A non-dimensional number to quantify the
relevance of geostrophic balance :
The Rossby number :
With the values used above :
GEOSTROPHIC BALANCE
z
y
Low Wind
Pressure force High
x
Coriolis force
(Northern Hemisphere) :
The wind leaves the high pressure on its right.
Expression for geostrophic wind in Cartesian coordinates :
Very good approximation of the wind in the free troposphere, outside the Tropics
Geostrophic wind is
- parallel to isobars,
- stronger where the isobars are more tightly packed,
- rotates counter-clockwise around low pressure centers in the Northern Hemisphere
Pressure nearly plays the rôle of a streamfunction in the above expressions
Mean sea level pressure and 100 m wind
Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
Cyclonic rotation → counterclockwise Cyclonic rotation → clockwise
Extra-tropical storms and storm tracks
A short remark on clouds and pressure
Geostrophic wind and boundary layer
aloft : balance between pressure gradient and Coriolis force
Near the surface : three way balance between Coriolis, pressure and friction
→ convergence in low pressure systems
→ clouds near pressure lows
(not discussed because of time :
fronts, non-linear development,
turbulence in the boundary layer, ec..
→ clear skies in anti-cyclones
Forecast initiated
1/10/24, 12:OO UTC,
valid T+120 h
(Sunday 6, 12:00 UTC)
→ not the same day !
Brief Summary on Atmospheric Circulation
Aspect ratio
→ quasi-horizontal motions
Layers :
Troposphere (up to 10 / 15 km)
Stratosphere (from tropopause to ~50 km)
Dominant balances :
hydrostatic balance
geostrophic balance
→ key rôle of pressure (mass distribution of the atmosphere)
Atmospheric Dynamics :
Chaotic : sensitive to initial conditions
Predictability limit for atmospheric dynamics (10 days to 2 weeks)
Multi-physics :
Dynamics, radiative transfer, thermodynamics and microphysics
Multiscale :
clouds, boundary layer : unresolved
There are now many features of these maps that we now understand.
Mean Sea Level pressure and 850 hPa wind 2 m tempertature and 30 m wind
100 m wind Pseudo-satellite image of clouds
There are now many features of these maps that we understand.
Mean Sea Level pressure and 850 hPa wind 2 m tempertature and 30 m wind
100 m wind Pseudo-satellite image of clouds
But, how were they obtained ?
2. What is a Numerical Weather Prediction Model ?
Model based on physical laws (Navier-Stokes, physics of radiation) which calculates the evolution of the atmosphere
allowing to produce meteorological forecasts
Difficulties and sources of error/uncertainty :
- discretisation (fluid = continuum, numerical model = finite number of operations)
- unresolved processes (→ described by parameterizations, ie ad hoc sub-models)
- initialization (data assimilation)
- chaotic evolution of fluid motion (deterministic forecast vain beyond ~15 days)
Some vocabulary :
Data assimilation
Analysis, reanalysis
Deterministic vs probabilitic forecast ;
Ensemble forecast
Discretization
→ choice of grids
Laws of physics to advance in time
fluid motions, large-scale
Limited resolution
→ un-resolved processes
(subgrid-scale)
→ parameterizations for the
un-resolved processes :
clouds, precipitation
(boundary-layer) turbulence
surfaces and fluxes
radiative transfer
internal gravity waves
Discretization
→ choice of grids
Laws of physics to advance in time
fluid motions, large-scale
Limited resolution
→ un-resolved processes
(subgrid-scale)
→ parameterizations for the
un-resolved processes :
clouds, precipitation
(boundary-layer) turbulence
surfaces and fluxes
radiative transfer
internal gravity waves Bauer et al 2015
Focus on Data assimilation, analyses and reanalyses
Focus on Data assimilation, analyses and reanalyses
How was this figure obtained ?
Focus on Data assimilation, analyses and reanalyses
How was this figure obtained ?
Forecast for t0 + 3 days
Close-up :
Forecast three
days lead time
Initiated
25/03/2019, 00
valid
28/03/2019, 00
Close-up :
Verification :
What really
happened
28/03/2019, 00
Focus on Data assimilation, analyses and reanalyses
How was this figure obtained ?
Initial condition Forecast for t0 + 3 days
NWP model
Focus on Data assimilation, analyses and reanalyses
How was this figure obtained ?
Initial condition Forecast for t0 + 3 days
NWP model
Information for the initial condition :
- observations (meteorological stations, soundings, satellite obs…)
Focus on Data assimilation, analyses and reanalyses
How was this figure obtained ?
Initial condition Forecast for t0 + 3 days
NWP model
Information for the initial condition :
- observations (meteorological stations, soundings, satellite obs…)
• Previous forecast (t0 + 12 h)
Data assimilation :
Merging of all available information to obtain the best possible
estimate of the atmospheric state at t0
Analysis : best estimate of the atmospheric state, given observations,
a NWP model and data assimilation methodology
Data assimilation :
Merging of all available information to obtain the best possible
estimate of the atmospheric state at t0
Analysis : best estimate of the atmospheric state, given observations,
a NWP model and data assimilation methodology
Now, say you wish to study the variability of the winds and temperatures over Asia for the
past four decades…
possible to use analyses ?
Now, say you wish to study the variability of the winds and temperatures over Asia for the
past four decades…
possible to use analyses ?
No : inhomogeneous dataset.
For example, the resolution changes with time as the grid has been refined.
Data assimilation :
Merging of all available information to obtain the best possible
estimate of the atmospheric state at t0
Analysis : best estimate of the atmospheric state, given observations,
a NWP model and data assimilation methodology
Re-Analysis : analyses for re-forecasts carried out over a long period with a frozen
NWP model and data assimilation methodology
Data assimilation :
Merging of all available information to obtain the best possible
estimate of the atmospheric state at t0
Analysis : best estimate of the atmospheric state, given observations,
a NWP model and data assimilation methodology
Re-Analysis : analyses for re-forecasts carried out over a long period with a frozen
NWP model and data assimilation methodology
Examples : ERA-Interim, ERA5, MERRA2, JRA...
3. Forecasting for energy – examples for short timescales
Motivation
Anticipating energy extraction and consumption
Planning maintenance
Example below from www.energy-charts.de, from Hong et al, 2019 :
June 2019, negative prices (8/6) and spike (25/6)
Hong et al 2019
3. Forecasting for energy – examples for short timescales
Timescales : minutes
Source of information
Solar Wind
sky camera nacelle anemometer
lidar (recent developments)
Methods : advection of observed clouds Statistical methods
A side remark on statistical approaches for forecasting
Exercise of forecasting based on data
for a specific location :
- interesting to carry out
- case specific
- difficult to generalize,
to compare,
to use…
Illustration of the variety of methods
investigated →
from a review article, Liu et al 2019
Liu et al, (2019) : Deterministic wind energy forecasting: A review of intelligent predictors and auxiliary methods,
Energy Conversion and Management, 195, 238-245
3. Forecasting for energy – examples for short timescales
Timescales : intra-hour to a few hours
Source of information
Solar Wind
Satellites NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction
NWP models)
Work from Sylvain Cros
(Réuniwatt in 2014, now LMD)
3. Forecasting for energy – examples for short timescales
Timescales : day-ahead to a few days
Source of information
Solar Wind
NWP NWP
From wind to power
Knowledge of the wind,
and manufacturer’s
power curve P(U)
→ power produced
From wind to power
Knowledge of the wind,
and manufacturer’s
power curve P(U)
→ power produced
In practice :
difference between modeled wind
and real wind at the turbine
spread around power curve
From wind to power
Knowledge of the wind,
and manufacturer’s
power curve P(U)
→ power produced
In practice :
difference between modeled wind
and real wind at the turbine
spread around power curve
availability of turbines
wakes
curtailment*
* imposed reduction of power produced, due
to noise or excess of renewables for ex
Using both local information and NWP forecasts
PhD work of Aurore Dupré, with Philippe Drobinski and Jordi Badosa (LMD)
Compare persistence (reference) with statistical models (ARMA, ANN) and with a linear
regression from the ECMWF forecast with or without using the initial observation
One example of a 3hr forecast Improvements over persistence
Dupré et al, 2020
Using both local information and NWP forecasts, and statistical
methods
Predictions out to 4 hours
for the locations of 5 wind
farms, using several
methods to combine
local measurement
and NWP
→ little sensitivity to the
method
Bouche et al, 2023
Using both local information and NWP forecasts, and statistical
methods
Predictions out to 4 hours
for the locations of 5 wind
farms, using several
methods to combine
local measurement
and NWP
→ little sensitivity to the
method
But quantifies which
variables are informative :
wind speed (100m)
wind speed ( 10m)
wind shear
not boundary layer info
Bouche et al, 2023
Similar but not identical across locations
Forecasting for energy has grown very large over past decade
Hong et al 2020
→ recommendations for reproducible research, and working together
Summary and Conclusion for short timescales (hours to a day)
Best to combine
local observation, and
NWP forecasts
Figure 7.1 from Troccoli et al, 2018
Chapter ‘Short-range forecasting for energy,
by Sue Ellen Haupt
Summary and Conclusion for short timescales (hours to a day)
Best to combine
local observation, and
NWP forecasts
How far ahead
can we forecast ?
Figure 7.1 from Troccoli et al, 2018
Chapter ‘Short-range forecasting for energy,
by Sue Ellen Haupt
