Inducement Trading
Inducement Trading
TRADING
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ICT traders refer to inducement levels as areas where retail stop losses are hunted. Retail
traders place their trades in these areas because they believe it’s the right time and
place, only for the price to go against them and take out their stop losses before finally
going in the direction they initially predicted. That’s why they are called inducement
levels. They induce traders into making wrong trading decisions that looked right.
Because the forex market is the most volatile financial market, it’s where you’ll most
often find this concept playing out.
In an uptrend, the market forms higher highs and lower lows. So, when a previous high is
taken out to form a new high, we expect to see a retracement to a new low. We then
expect a reversal to break that new high. In a downtrend, the market forms lower highs
and lower lows. When a previous low is taken out, we expect the price to retrace to a new
lower high before reversing to break the new low and continue the trend.
Simple enough.
But the market just doesn’t move in straight lines. Inside a move from a low to a high,
many things happen. You’ll see them more clearly when you zoom into a smaller
timeframe. For instance, you’ll find many potential reversal areas to which the price may
retrace before finally continuing the bullish market structure.
Of these many levels, only one is the true reversal point. The rest are inducement areas.
These inducement levels trick you into entering positions so that the market can take out
your stop losses before continuing the major trend.
And that’s how inducement works. It tricks you into positions at levels where your stop
losses are likely to be taken out.
What are the Various Types of Inducement?
There are various types of inducements, depending on how they form on the chart.
In a bullish trend, for instance, the expectation is that once the price retraces to a
previous demand zone, the market will reverse and continue its bullish run. In a bearish
trend, you would expect the price to retrace to a previous supply zone before reversing
to continue its downtrend. Your stop loss, ideally, would be above the supply zone and
below the demand zone.
But instead of this playing out, the price gets to your zone, tears through it to take out
your stop loss, and then reverses in the direction you initially predicted.
Also, note that sometimes, order block traders may consider all reversals that take place
at any level other than an order block as premature. This approach would mean that
reversals at fair value gaps are premature. However, how you approach it will depend on
your trading style.
4. Consolidation Inducement
This is another kind of inducement that appears during consolidation when the price
ranges between resistance and support. Typically, the retail trader would trade this by
buying at support and selling at resistance. Another way to trade these ranges is to
trade the breakout.
However, these support and resistance levels can be inducement areas. That’s why you’ll
see the price break out and clear liquidity on one side of the range and then reverse to
break out and clear liquidity on the other side of the range.
Some call this an External to External inducement. Others call it the Power of 3
(Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution).
Does that mean trying to spot inducements is a hopeless case? Not entirely. Here are
some ways to potentially identify inducements in trading.
If the level you’re hoping to trade from coincides with an area of liquidity, your level
could be an inducement. Usually, the price takes out this area of liquidity, including your
inducement level, and trades into a deeper supply or demand zone before reversing
your direction.
That is why if your demand or supply zone does not have some form of liquidity before it,
then it might be an inducement.
4. Premature Reversal
If you find the market making a turn at a level that has no significant backing, such as an
order block or a breaker block, chances are that supply and demand zones on that
reversal leg are inducement levels. This is based on the idea that the market doesn’t just
move without a reason. The price only reverses when it reaches an area of significant
supply or demand. So, if you find the market reversing at areas without clear reversal
zones, this could be the handiwork of smart money manipulators engineering
inducement.
When you measure the move from a swing low to a swing high in a bullish trend, the
upper half of the measured leg is the premium zone, and the lower half is the discount
zone. Similarly, when you measure from a swing high to a swing low in a bearish trend,
the lower half is the premium zone, while the upper half is the discount zone.
Areas in the premium zones are likely inducement levels since the price usually makes
deep retracements before reversing into its initial direction. So when you find zones or
tradeable levels in the premium half, be weary of such zones, as they could be
inducement levels.
7. Understand Fundamentals
Sometimes, traders get too sucked into technical analysis that they don’t remember that
the fundamentals move the price in the long run. So, a good understanding of trading
fundamentals can help you detect which levels are only inducements and which are
valid.
For instance, if you have a reason based on fundamental analysis that the price is going
to retrace or maybe reverse the trend, you would see any zone that stands in the way as
a potential inducement.
These “little details” may prove to be significant and weigh on your trading decision. As
far as inducement is concerned, you only you can tell the levels where you’ve been
wrong on multiple occasions in the past from experience and proper journaling. These
levels are your inducement levels.
Anyway, we’ll show you how to spot and include inducement into your trading decision
with real market examples from a CADJPY chart in the one-hour timeframe. As you’ll
soon see, this example has many of the inducement types we mentioned above.
We’ll break the move into various phases so that you can see how things play out.
Phase 1: Supply and Demand Inducement
We see two supply zones in the form of order blocks. They have Fair Value Gaps right
after them, which is usually a sign that a supply zone has some strength. Plus, we’re in a
strong downtrend, so everything is looking good.
However, only time and price will tell which of these levels is an area of inducement for
the deeper order block above. We’ll call the lower order block “Supply 1” and the deeper
order block “Supply 2”.
But because we don’t see any type of inducement before Supply 1, we won’t make a
trading decision yet. As the saying goes, “no inducement, no trade.”
And rightly so, the price returns to this level, forming a double top. Just like that, Supply 1
becomes a likely area of inducement. In addition, we get a Support/Resistance
inducement in the form of a double top.
Already, Supply 1 looks less attractive. Supply 2 looks more attractive, as it now has
inducement just below it.
Don’t forget that when a consolidation forms, we expect both sides to get taken out. And
that is exactly what happens next.
After the range gets taken out on both sides, we get a change of character, a fair value
gap, and a new order block. Most retail traders will mark this new level out as a new
supply zone, hoping to sell from there.
But notice something. This new supply zone does not mitigate our Supply 2. It reverses
prematurely, which makes it a potential inducement level.
If, for this reason, you placed your sell order at the new supply zone, you would be
forgiven. Why? Because the consolidation serves as an inducement for the zone.
However, don’t forget that that zone itself is a potential inducement level. So, you would
have to approach it with caution.
To trade tricky situations like this, it’s best to wait for a confirmation after the mitigation
of the supply zone before entering a trade. The confirmation will be in the form of a
change of character that takes out the other side of the range, then placing your sell
limit order on any supply zone that forms during the move. That scenario would look
something like this.
Remember that this is only a hypothetical situation. Before we make any trading
decisions, let’s see how the price reacts at this level.
Immediately, we place a sell order at that level, our stop loss above the supply zone, and
our profit target at the next swing low. Let’s see how the trade plays out:
Another limitation of inducement trading is that it’s a psychological idea based on the
premise that there are market manipulators waiting to hunt the stop losses of retail
traders. There’s no real proof anywhere that confirms this. There’s also no way to place
trade entries based on inducement alone because the way to trade it is simply to spot it
and avoid it.
One more limitation is that any level can be an inducement, even the levels that look
least like it. As a matter of fact, inducements are best spotted in retrospect. So, in a live
market scenario, you can try to spot areas of inducement, but you can’t know for sure
until the move plays out.
Finally, the ghost chase for inducement may cause you to miss out on strong trading
opportunities.
Liquidity refers to areas where there are clusters of stop orders. Once these stop orders
are taken out, the market will usually reverse to continue in its original direction.
Inducement refers to the traps the smart money manipulators set to cause you to make
trades and add your stop losses to the pile of liquidity waiting to be taken out.
Let’s say the market is in a downtrend, and you see a supply zone waiting to be retraced.
Your impulse would be to sell at that supply zone. And this makes sense, right? The price
retraces into the supply zone, reverses, and then continues its journey downwards. That’s
exactly what most retail traders are likely to do. They’ll place their trade entry points at
the supply. And where do they place their stop losses? Just above the supply.
This is where liquidity and inducement come into play. The cluster of stop-loss orders
resting above the supply is what we call liquidity. Why? Because the price is likely to get
to the support, go past it slightly to take out those stop losses, and then reverse to
continue its downtrend move. If this does happen, then that supply zone is the
inducement or trap that got you to pile your stop loss with the rest of the liquidity.
3. Remain disciplined
Don’t let emotions get the better of you. If your setup is yet to form, don’t force it. And
once your setup forms, execute without hesitation. Don’t let greed and fear force you into
trades. Even when you get induced into trades that eventually take out your stop losses,
remember that it happens. Learn from it and move on. And that’s why you must create a
well-defined trading plan outlining entry, exit, and risk management rules. This is the only
way to maintain trading consistency.