MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6

Typhoon OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

“OFEL” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of Typhoon OFEL was estimated based on all

available data at 485 km East Northeast of Daet, Camarines
Norte or 610 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.3°N, 127.3°E).

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa

Present Movement

West northwestward at 20 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 300
km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 16.2 125.5 360 km East of Casiguran, Aurora 140 TY WNW 25
13 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 17.4 123.3 165 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 150 TY WNW 20
14 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 18.9 121.7 Over the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan 120 TY NW 20
14 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 20.3 120.6 145 km West of Basco, Batanes 110 STS NW 15
15 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 21.3 120.5 150 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes 110 STS N 10
15 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 21.8 120.7 165 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes 100 STS NNE Slowly
16 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
Almost
8:00 AM 21.8 121.1 135 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes 95 STS
stationary
17 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 21.1 119.5 245 km West of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) 75 TS WSW 10
18 November 2024

Page 1 of 3

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6

Typhoon OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Baggao, Peñablanca, Gattaran,

2 Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Santa Ana), the eastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon,

Divilacan, Palanan)
Wind threat:
Gale-force Warning lead time: 24 hours
winds Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela,
Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, the eastern
1 portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Banaue, Mayoyao, Hingyon, Hungduan)
Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran),
- -

Wind threat:
Strong Warning lead time: 36 hours
winds Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 23 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “OFEL”.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly
stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the
prevailing wind direction.

 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of OFEL is Wind Signal No. 4.

Coastal Inundation

There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or
exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora. Refer
to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details.

Page 2 of 3

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6

Typhoon OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 10.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan.
 Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
 Up to 7.0 m: The seaboard of Babuyan Islands and the remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan
 Up to 6.0 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes
 Up to 3.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Polillo Islands; the remaining seaboard of Aurora;
the seaboard of Camarines Norte and northern Quezon; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these
conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 2.5 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon including the rest of
Polillo Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar
 Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands; the eastern seaboard of
Camarines Sur and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes.
 Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while
venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 OFEL is forecast to move west northwestward to northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the
eastern coast of Cagayan or Isabela tomorrow (14 November) afternoon. It will then emerge over the Luzon Strait on Friday
(15 November) and turn more north northwestward while slowing down before behaving erratically during the weekend.
Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may
still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone.
 It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on
the 4th and 5th day of the forecast track. In particular, two scenarios are emerging: a northwestward track until Friday before
turning west southwestward during the weekend, and a slightly recurving track to the right of the present track forecast. Given
these, further changes in the track forecast are expected.
 OFEL is forecast to steadily intensify within 24 hours and possibly make landfall during its peak intensity.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 3 of 3

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines