Climate and its changes ES8001/7001

A change in global or
regional climate patterns
Lecture outlines and aims
• What is climate change?
• How, where and why does it occur?
• Physical process/es
• Impacts
• Warnings/Monitoring
• Mitigation
• Case studies
•Aims
• At the end of this lecture, you should be able to:
• Understand why climate change impacts occur
where they do, what their impacts are and how
we mitigate disaster
 Climate: Weather across a
broad area averaged over a
So what is ‘climate long period of time (usually at
least 30 years)
change’?

A change in global or regional

climate patterns.
So what is ‘climate’?

Note the contrast with weather in time!

What naturally changes the climate?
Earth is warmed by solar
energy from the sun

Northern hemisphere Northern hemisphere

Amount of solar energy to reach a point on

Earth’s surface depends on time of day, time of
year, and position relative to equator
What naturally changes the climate?

Kardashev scale on human civilization

sph er e
h em i
r th ern
No

Geometry controls the energy that is received from the sun.

 Energy on Earth

68 100
 Earth’s Climate System
• Climate – long term atmospheric
conditions in a region
• Earth’s climate includes interactions of:
• Atmosphere
• Hydrosphere
• Geosphere
• Biosphere
• Cryosphere
• Climate system – exchanges of energy
and moisture between these spheres

Energy is main stored and sequestered in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice.
 Earth’s atmosphere: first layer to meet when sun energy comes to earth
Atmospheric layers
• Ionosphere: above these layers
• Mesosphere: up to ~90 km
• Stratosphere: up to ~50 km
• Troposphere: 0 to ~18 km
Atmospheric content
• 78% N; 21% O; less than 1% Ar,
CO2, and other trace gases; water
vapor 1–4% on average

Mountain Everest is ~ 0.1% of the radius of the earth! (a hair on a basketball!)

Absorption of Ultra Violate (O3)

(75% mass)
The Earth would be -19°C (-2°F) without atmosphere.
99% of the atmosphere is nitrogen and oxygen， which are transparent to
radiation

CH4 Greenhouse Gases

N 20
O3 6% Water Vapor
8%

Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Water
Dioxide 26% Vapor 60% Ozone

Methane, Nitrous
Oxide

Clouds also have a greenhouse effect! ( Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997）

 What naturally changes the climate?
On a shorter timescale…

Earth’s surface temperature is influenced by

how much sunlight is reflected and absorbed
What naturally changes the climate?

Pattern of temperature and ice volume changes associated with recent

glacials and interglacials

Studies of Greenland and Antarctic glaciers show ice ages,

alternating with warmer periods, over last two million years
What naturally changes the climate?
Possible explanation for ice ages: variation in Earth’s orbit and rotation
- Orbital changes called Milankovitch cycles. These correspond well with at least 20 ice ages
What naturally changes the climate?
• Variations in Earth’s Orbit
• Milankovitch Theories
• Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit
• Obliquity of Earth’s axis
• Precession of Earth’s axis

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.

What naturally changes the climate?
Incoming Energy – Eccentricity
Nearly 80 years later, while a prisoner of war during WWI, Serbian Milutin Milankovich conceived the theory that
irregularities in the motions of the Earth about the Sun produced ice ages

Changes total solar

radiation by 0.2%
What naturally changes the climate?
Incoming Energy – Obliquity

More tilt - more sun in

summer, less in winter
What naturally changes the climate?
Incoming Energy – Precession
What naturally changes the climate?
Incoming Energy – Precession
Due to wobble of the axis
Impact due to elliptical nature of orbit
What naturally changes the climate? Precession https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlVgEoZDjok
What naturally changes the climate?
Together, these form Milankovich cycles

+
Solar Flux

Combining the three theoretical variations in solar input at 65°N yields the
yellow theoretical time series of solar energy over a million years
Break?
What else naturally changes the climate?

Pinatubo, 1991
• Volcanic eruptions
• Volcanic ejecta may block sunlight What else naturally
• Need many eruptions in short time period changes the climate?
• Not observed in recent history

Pinatubo, 1991
The Earth’s energy balance

Energy from the sun must be balanced

Pinatubo, 1991
by energy lost back into space.
If not, have radiative forcing (RF):
Difference in energy between top of
troposphere and energy below it.
+ve RF(more incoming than outgoing
radiation) warms Earth
-ve RF cools Earth

Some human causes, some natural

causes
What else changes the climate?
Physical processes:
The Carbon cycle

CO2 from human activities >CO2

plants and oceans can uptake

Greenhouse gases prevent long-

wave heat radiation escaping,
and also reflect short-wave
radiation back to space
Greenhouse gases
CO2 from human activities > CO2 plants and oceans can uptake
• ‘Natural’ greenhouse gases:
• Water vapor mostly evaporated from oceans >
• CO2 and CH4 emitted by erupting volcanoes,
animals, decaying vegetation, and forest
fires
• NOx generated during lightning storms
• Greenhouse gases are also by-products of
human activities, such as burning fossil fuels
• Pollution: major source of atmospheric particles,
particularly affecting developing countries
• A 3-km-thick cloud of smoke, soot, and dust
found over Indian ocean (caused by using
cow dung as cooking fuel): cools ocean’s
surface, reducing evaporation and causing
drought
Greenhouse gases
CO2 from human activities > CO2 plants and oceans can uptake

Positive feedback loop:

Even if human-caused
CO2 emissions
stopped today
Amount added to
oceans would slowly
release back,
preventing significant
atmospheric
temperature drop for
at least 1000 years
Physical processes that may be harmful
Significant impacts at current level of warming - >1.5°C
Consequences of climate change: Sea-level rise

Projected sea level rise - Bangladesh - Coastal areas flood

- Salt water contaminates freshwater
aquifers
- Low levees overtopped during floods
- Coastal populations displaced

Bangladesh would lose more than 17

percent of its land with 1 m sea-level rise:
- Annual floods affect ~20 percent
of land today
- Raising levees would be cost-
prohibitive

Projected sea level rise by 2100 (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory)

Consequences of climate • Ocean salinity changes (from melting glaciers and ice
change: Changes to sheets) could alter path and strength of Gulf Stream
global oceanic circulation • Resulting in cooling in western Europe
 Consequences of climate change:
More extreme and severe weather
• Most of Earth’s near-surface heat is concentrated
in the oceans:
• Warmer oceans lead to greater evaporation and
more rainfall.

• Ocean heat contributes significantly to the energy

that drives storms
• Warmer seas will cause stronger, more frequent
storms.
• Changes in circulation patterns may mean storms
extend farther to the N and S.
 Consequences of climate change: Glacial melt
Panoramic view of West Rongbuk Glacier and Mount Everest, taken in 1921 (top) by Major E.O. Wheeler and in 2009 (bottom) by David Breashears

Himalayan glaciers important for providing freshwater flow for immense downstream
populations in dry seasons
- Loss of glaciers threatens rice and wheat crops
Consequences of climate change: Glacial melt
As glaciers melt, they expose surrounding dark rocks that soak up more heat
- Feedback effect causes more melting
Albedo: property of a surface indicating how much sunlight is reflected.
- High-albedo surfaces (snow and ice) reflect much of sun’s energy;
- Low-albedo surfaces (water, dark land) absorb energy and lead to more warming.

Can lead to feedback loop, e.g.:

1. Melting ice exposes dark
surface of ocean
2. Reflects less energy
3. Heats water
4. Melts more ice
Maps of the thicknesses of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

26,000 years ago Present Day

m

Model: ICE-5G, Peltier (2004) Courtesy of Mark Tamisiea, 2011

Measurements
made closer to
home: Rapid
flooding of the
Sunda Shelf
Sealevel
change on the
Sunda Shelf
 thousand
years ago

Sea-level
transition from
glacial to
modern times
Impacts on plants and animals

Plants, animals, and humans adapt to climate change, migrate or become extinct

• Terrestrial plants and animals are

migrating toward poles
• Higher temperatures in
northern climates may improve
agricultural production there.
• IPCC: up to 20–30 percent of
animal species may die out by 2050
Measuring and
forecasting
climate change
 • Established through proxy data
Establishing the past • Indirect record of climate conditions
climate • Data sources include:
• Ice cores
EPICA ice cores provide a record of
temperatures for past 740,000 years

All data sources reasonably agree for last 800,000

Tree rings are thicker in better growing conditions (warmer, rainier).

• Established through proxy data

• Indirect record of climate conditions
Establishing the past
• Data sources include:
climate • Ice cores
• Tree rings
Establishing the past climate

• Established through proxy data

• Indirect record of climate
conditions
• Data sources include:
• Ice cores
• Tree rings
• Sediments (which forms over
long periods of time)
Who came out with the
Not until 40 years ago were
idea/method to study past geologists able to determine
climate? the ages of the glacial comings
and goings precisely enough to
test Milankovitch’s hypothesis

In 1976, this fellow, Nick

Shackleton,1 figured out a very
clever way to measure changes
in the amount of ice on Earth
over long periods of time

1 and two colleagues, Hays and Imbrie

 He developed what we call a “proxy” for ice
volume
Whereas Milankovich used physics to theorize
multiple ice ages, Shackleton used chemistry to
characterize and the ice ages and physics to
date them
That proxy uses the oxygen isotopic
composition of ancient ocean water to tell how
much ice existed
Establishing the
past climate

Oceans are enriched

in 18O over 16O when
conditions are cooler
(as 18O is locked up
in ice). Reflected in
marine organism
shells.
 Not all water (H20) is the same. H2180 is heavier than H2160 !
Most oxygen is 16O. It has 8 protons and 8 neutrons in its nucleus
But about 0.2% of oxygen is 18O. It has 8 protons and 10 neutrons

Being heavier, H2180 doesn’t evaporate as easily as its lighter cousin H2160. So
rainwater is actually lighter than the seawater from which it comes.

Consider now, what happens if this lighter rainfall does not return to the sea, but is
instead deposited in large glaciers. In this case, as the ice accumulates, the water in
the sea becomes more and more rich in 18O. That is, its d18O value increases.
This little fellow is a foraminifera, and he and his friends use oxygen in the sea-water to make their shells

About 1 mm
If the water molecules in the ocean are richer in 18O when they form their shells (like during an ice age), the
forams’ shells will also have a greater concentration of 18O. So, their tiny shells are chemical records of the
waxing and waning of Earth’s great ice sheets. We geologists call this chemical record a “proxy.”
 Shackleton’s million-year record of glaciations
Every 0.1 per mil is equal to about 13 meters of ocean,
Latest ice age so this record shows about 8 fluctuations of about 130
115,000 to 12,000 meters in sea level over the past 800,000 years.
years ago
780,000 years ago
today

less ice
d18O
(per mil)
more ice
Depth in core (cm)
The ratio of heavy to light oxygen in foraminifera shells is a proxy for the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets
over the past million years.
By the way, the age of the mud in this core is known, in part, from the fact that the last reversal of the Earth’s
magnetic field appears about 1.2 meters below the top of the core (that is, the sea floor).
 A million-year record of repeated glaciations
Latest ice age
115,000 to 12,000
years ago 780,000 years
ago
today

less ice
d18O
more ice
Depth in core (cm)

The Ice Ages have periods of about 100,000 years, about 40,000 years and about 20,000 years.
You mathematicians and physicists will appreciate that one can see the relative influences of these periods
by applying a Fourier Transform to the time series.
So these three theoretical changes in 3 of Earth’s orbital characteristics
DO appear to explain Earth’s ice ages

Solar Flux +

Less ice

More ice
Changes in sea level are not the only thing we learn about climate change from geological proxies.
Ice cores also provide valuable information

Variations in the ratio of lighter and heavier isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen record
changes in temperature when the snow fell
 Record of temperature from the Antarctic ice sheet
Temperature stability of
the last 10,000 years

Variations in the ratio of lighter and heavier isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen record
changes in temperature when the snow fell
Four complete temperature cycles in the past 450,000 years Consistent
with the ice-volume record from the oceans, but much more detailed
One basic observation is that the past ten thousand years is by no means normal.
In fact, it appears to be the longest stable time of the past 400,000 years!
 All this to give you some perspective on climate change
Here is some detail from an ice-core record from Greenland.
Warmer
The past 10,000
years is far more
stable than the
previous 100,000;
something to bear
in mind when one
monkey’s around
with today’s climate
controls!
Colder

Dansgaard-Oeschger events and Heinrich events

 Temperature changes of the past 15,000 years
We will zoom
in for this part

A Dryas flower in the tundra

Changes in temperature during the Younger Dryas period

were about 10 times greater than between the most
significant warming and cooling of the past millennium, the
Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age!
Other proxy: Glacier Temperature changes of the past 400 years

0.6°C

Glacier length can be related to temperature through some basic physics =

glacier length is a proxy for temperature
 Temperatures of the past 2,000 years

This record comes from another proxy: Measurements of changes in the chemistry of tree rings and
sediments in the Northern Hemisphere
It also indicates about a 1°C of change in the past 2000 yrs

Nature v443 2005

 Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
Little Ice Age

Two long periods of different climate of the past 1000 years

The green line is temperature measured instrumentally, so one can judge whether the
tree-ring proxy is a good indicator of actual temperature.
Is the tree-ring proxy a good measure of actual temperature?
Temperatures of the past 2,000 years

Medieval Warm Period

Little Ice Age

Thames River freezes over 24 times in London

 Temperatures of the past 2,000 years

Medieval Warm Period

Little Ice Age

Even an average drop of 0.5°C can have an Growing seasons in England shorter by 15 to 20%
effect on agriculture. than in the 20th century (one to two months)
Impact to human civilization
Great fluctuations in grain prices during the LIA
These fluctuations during the Famine induced by the
Little Ice Age were caused eruption of Tambora
Millions die in
primarily by crop failures western Europe
associated with more highly
variable weather than during
previous centuries

Crop failures led to

significant economic
problems that in turn led to
social and political unrest Price of rye (expressed as an index)
Any other proxy? Rainfall that falls
during the East
Asian monsoon
falls mostly in the
summer months

• The rain that falls on the Chinese coast is actually isotopically “heavier” than water that falls a
couple days later, farther inland.
• In years when the monsoon is stronger, that is, when more rain falls as the storms move across
China, the water falling is lighter than in years when the monsoon is weak.
What proxy might we use to measure the strengthening and weakening
of the monsoons over the centuries?
 One very useful proxy for
rainfall is in cave
deposits

Mineral-laden rainwater drips onto the cave floor

and then the water evaporates, Calcite (CaCO3) is
the mineral left behind. It forms stalagmites that
rise from the floor of the cave.
A stalagmite grows when
the weather is very rainy 20mm @ 38,910±400 y
and doesn’t grow when
the weather is not very
rainy. An example of a
cave stalagmite that
formed in a Brazilian
cave during two
How do earth scientists short periods
date these stalagmites. separated by
30,000 years
The answer involves
radioactive Uranium in 160 mm @ 39,550±310 y
the stalagmite.
168 mm @ 65,430±660 y

197mm @ 65,650±520 y
Let’s look at a cave at Wanxiang, China. It yielded a 1,800-year-long record of
rainfall variations that correlate with the demise of three Chinese dynasties
Impact to

Lighter H2O
human
civilization

Heavier H2O

Zhang et al 2008 Science

Impact to The Chongzhen Drought, at the end of
the Ming Dynasty (1637-1643), is known

human as one of the most severe in Chinese

history. It affected more than 20

civilization provinces in N and S China. The

prolonged drought helped Li Zicheng
organize a popular uprising and
Huang
Chao overthrow Chongzhen in 1644.

ZhuYuanzhang, 1st
Ming emperor
River scene at Qingming festival

The Huang Chao Uprising

of the 870s and 880s was Li Zicheng
fueled by a drought, when
At the end of the Yuan Dynasty there were a
locusts swarmed the land,
series of droughts and a peasant uprising. In
and led to the end of the During the Northern Song Strong 1368 Zhu Yuanzhang, the leader of the
Tang Dynasty Monsoon Period, the Chinese population uprising, took Beijing. His parents and older
more than tripled, rice became the staple brother all died during the droughts that
of the Chinese diet and rice cultivation brought the end of the Yuan Dynasty
expanded northwards
 Ruins of a Viking barn in Greenland

What is the lesson for us?

Variations in climate can be dangerous to
societies and civilizations
 Ruins of a Viking barn in Greenland
What are the challenges for us?
Political stability
Food security
Water security
Human progress
Climate Change impact at relatively short time scale
Atmospheric-Ocean Connections in the Pacific Ocean

• Walker Circulation Cell – normal conditions

• Air pressure across equatorial Pacific is higher in eastern
Pacific
• Strong southeast trade winds
• Pacific warm pool on western side of ocean
• Thermocline deeper on western side
• Upwelling off the coast of Peru
Normal Conditions, Walker Circulation
 Global mean surface temperatures estimated since preindustrial times

This curve is not

going down!

From the University of East Anglia CRU (data following Brohan et al. 2006; Rayner et al. 2006)

•Anomalies relative to 1961-1990 mean

•Annual average values of combined near-surface air temperature over
continents and sea surface temperature over ocean.
•Curve: smoothing similar to a decadal running average.
El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Walker Cell Circulation disrupted
• High pressure in eastern Pacific weakens
• Weaker trade winds
• Warm pool migrates eastward
• Thermocline deeper in eastern Pacific
• Downwelling
• Lower biological productivity
• Peruvian fishing suffers
ENSO Conditions in the Pacific Ocean
 Sea surface temp., clim. & anom. Dec. 1997
Reynolds SST data set

Climatology
1982-2001 (C)

Sea Surface Temp. Dec.

1997

Anomaly
(Dec.97 SST-Clim.)

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

December 1997 Anomalies of precipitation
during the fully developed warm phase of ENSO

Data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, following Xie and Arkin (1996).

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

 December 1997 Anomalies of sea surface temperature
during the fully developed warm phase of ENSO

Reynolds data set following Reynolds (1988) and Reynolds and Smith (1999).

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

 December 1997 Anomalies of sea level height
during the fully developed warm phase of ENSO

Data from NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry following Cheney et al., 1994, J. Geophys. Res.

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

 DJF Low-level wind anomalies during the 1997-98 El Niño
relative to the 1958-98 climatology

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis data set. Kalney et al. 1996, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

ENSO Impacts
Occur around the world
Droughts (e.g. Australia, Africa,
Brazil, Indonesia)
Floods (e.g. Peru, southern USA)
 Some events in the history of global warming studies
1850s Beginning of the industrial revolution.
1861 John Tyndall notes H2O and CO2 are important for infrared absorption and thus
potentially for climate. The warming effect of the atmosphere and analogy to a
greenhouse had been noted by J. B. Fourier in 1827.
1868 Stefan’s law for blackbody radiation.
1896-1908 Svante Arrhenius postulates a relation between climate change and CO2 and that
global warming may occur as a result of coal burning.
1917 W. M. Dines estimates a heat balance of the atmosphere that is approximately correct.
1938 G. S. Callendar attempts to quantify warming by CO2 release by burning of fossil fuels.
late 1950s Popularization of global warming as a problem, notably by Roger Revelle.
1958 Start of C. D. Keeling’s monitoring of CO2 at Mauna Loa.
1975 1st 3-D global climate model of CO2 induced climate change (Suki Manabe)
1979 Charney report
late 1980s 7 of 8 warmest years of the century to that point.
1990 & 92 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report & Supplement
1992 Rio de Janeiro United Nations Conference on the Environment.
Development; Framework Convention on Climate Change.
“The ultimate objective...is...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system”.
1995- Second Assessment Report of the IPCC: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
96 human influence on global climate. [....] There are still many uncertainties. [...]”.

1995 Start of ongoing series of Conferences of the Parties to the Climate Convention:
Discussion of short term objectives in terms of rates of greenhouse gas emissions by
developed countries.
1997 Kyoto Protocol sets targets on greenhouse gas emissions at 5% below 1990 levels by
2008 - 2012.
2001 Third Assessment Report of the IPCC.

2004 Nine of the ten warmest years since 1856 occurred in past ten years (1995-2004) (1996
was less warm than 1990).
2005 Kyoto protocol enters into force

2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the few thousand
scientists of the IPCC process and one politician.
La Niña – ENSO Cool Phase
• Increased pressure difference across equatorial Pacific
• Stronger trade winds
• Stronger upwelling in eastern Pacific
• Shallower thermocline
• Cooler than normal seawater
• Higher biological productivity
La Niña Conditions

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Occurrence of ENSO Events
• El Niño warm phase about every
2–10 years
• Highly irregular
• Phases usually last 12–18 months
• 10,000-year sediment record of events
• ENSO may be part of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
• Long-term natural climate cycle
• Lasts 20–30 years

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.

Mitigation: Greenhouse gases
Need to reduce sources of greenhouse gases
- Consume power more efficiently
- Act quickly
- Change perspective from reacting to short-
term threats to recognising the long-term
threat
Simplest, most effective strategies:
- Lower transportation-related energy use
- Use less fuel to heat or cool homes and
buildings
- Use energy-efficient light bulbs,
appliances and insulation
- Use alternative energy sources, e.g. solar,
wind
- Minimise deforestation and soil
degradation
Mitigation: Greenhouse gases
Need to amplify sinks for greenhouse gases
- Carbon sequestration: artificial Singapore’s mission
 Is it possible to conduct CCS in Singapore? Porous Geological Units at Anticlines Could
be Used for CO2 Sequestration

Johor

Seal and Reservoir S

CU
Layers at Anticlines FO
m
ro
r ef
iF gu

Deep structure imaging is needed for

CO2 sequestration
Mitigation: Greenhouse gases
Need to amplify sinks for greenhouse gases
- Carbon sequestration: natural

Plants (especially forests) store most of the world’s

carbon in leaves, branches, stems, and roots
- Remains in the plant until it decays or is burned
Mitigation: Greenhouse gases
Geo-engineering solutions…
Mitigation: Greenhouse gases
Case study: Us!
Earth’s atmospheric temperature has been rising since industrial revolution
Case study: Us!
Global CO2 variation at different time scales
Case study: Us!
• Record of atmospheric CO2 for 800,000 years from air bubbles in Greenland and Antarctic ice
- Natural cyclic variation from ~200 ppm CO2 to ~300 ppm (parts per million)
- 2015 CO2 levels are > 400 ppm
IPCC conclusion: human influence is the dominating cause
Case study:
Us!
• Projected warming
Lecture outlines and aims
• What is climate change?
• How, where and why does it occur?
• Physical process/es
• Impacts
• Warnings/Monitoring
• Mitigation
• Case studies

• Aims
• At the end of this lecture, you should be able to:
• Understand why climate change impacts occur
where they do, what their impacts are and how
we mitigate disaster