The AI Maturity Matrix

Which Economies Are Ready for AI?

November 2024
By Christian Schwaerzler, Miguel Carrasco, Christopher Daniel,
Brooke Bollyky, Yoshihisa Niwa, Aparna Bharadwaj, Akram Awad,
Richard Sargeant, Sanjay Nawandhar, and Svetlana Kostikova
Contents

03 Introduction

04 Key Findings

05 The Relationship Between

Exposure and Readiness

10 The Archetypes of AI Adoption

15 Strategic Next Steps

17 Methodology

21 About the Authors

Introduction

V
iews vary on how much AI is changing the world economies are gradually adopting AI, but there is a small,
today, but one thing is clear: the technology is on influential group of AI pioneers that take their place as
course to shape the future of economic development. leaders. Their prize is economic advantage, but they are
Business leaders expect large impacts on operations and also poised to shape how humanity will interact with this
value creation in the 3-to-10-year timeframe, and world- powerfully disruptive technology.
wide spending on artificial intelligence will more than
double to $632 billion by 2028.1 The long-term, expansive By focusing on two pivotal aspects, this report offers a
scale of this growth makes AI an economic priority in every unique approach to viewing the global dynamics of AI
region across the globe. adoption. First, we examine each economy’s exposure to
AI-driven disruptions. We define exposure as the potential
This growth also adds urgency to the questions that for AI to impact a sector in an economy negatively or
policymakers face about AI. Is a society able to build an positively. We then assess each economy’s readiness to
AI-skilled workforce in key sectors? How will a government harness AI’s potential for growth and to mitigate potential
set up resilient, modern infrastructure? How does a nation risks. The resulting matrix brings together these factors to
spur enough investment and R&D to stay competitive? present six archetypes of AI economic development and
potential. We offer recommendations tailored to the
BCG’s new AI Maturity Matrix assesses 73 global different groups to guide policymakers—and provide an
economies to answer some of these key questions.2 This interactive dashboard for a more detailed exploration of
matrix provides a broad view of global adoption: most our analysis.

1. “AI Is Showing ‘Very Positive’ Signs of Eventually Boosting GDP and Productivity,” Goldman Sachs website, May 13, 2024; “Worldwide Spending on
Artificial Intelligence Forecast to Reach $632 Billion in 2028, According to a New IDC Spending Guide,” IDC website, August 19, 2024.
2. Details of the selection process are available in the methodology section.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 3
Key Findings

Out of 73 economies assessed, only Several economies with high Most economies in the study are
five—Canada, Mainland China, AI readiness are just behind the not ready for AI disruption. More
Singapore, the UK, and the US— pace of AI pioneers. While this than 70% score below the halfway
are categorized as AI pioneers. group of AI contenders includes mark in categories like ecosystem
They have reached a high level of established economies, it also participation, skills, and R&D.
readiness by blending elements like features emerging ones like India, Policymakers must act now to adjust
investment and infrastructure, turning Saudi Arabia, and the UAE that are to a world of AI and boost resiliency,
disruption into a competitive edge. using policy and targeted investments productivity, jobs, modernization, and
They are in a unique position to guide to adopt AI on an advanced level. As competitiveness.
the world forward in innovation, these economies strengthen their
talent development, and AI regulation innovation capabilities, they will grow
and ethics. more competitive and influential in
the AI space.

Distribution of Economies Across the Archetypes of AI Adoption

AI contenders
High

Steady contenders
· Australia · Japan
AI practitioners · Austria · Luxembourg
· Belgium · Malaysia
· Denmark · Netherlands
· Estonia · Norway
· Finland · Portugal
Exposed practitioners · France · South Korea AI pioneers
· Bahrain · Greece · Germany · Spain · Canada
· Bulgaria · Hungary · Hong Kong · Sweden · Mainland China
· Cyprus · Kuwait · Ireland · Switzerland · Singapore
AI emergents · Czechia · Malta · Israel · Taiwan · UK
EXPOSURE

· Italy · US
· Algeria · Iraq
· Angola · Nigeria
· Ecuador · Venezuela
Gradual practitioners Rising contenders
· Ethiopia
· Argentina · Morocco · Brazil · Saudi Arabia
· Chile · Oman · India · Türkiye
· Colombia · Pakistan · Indonesia · UAE
· Dominican · Peru · New Zealand · Vietnam
Republic · Philippines · Poland
· Egypt · Romania
· Iran · Qatar
· Kenya · Slovakia
· Latvia · South Africa
· Lithuania · Thailand
· Mexico · Ukraine
Low

Bottom 10% READINESS Top 10%

Sources: BCG Center for Public Economics; BCG analysis.

Note: Within each archetype, economies appear in alphabetical order.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 4
The Relationship Between Exposure
and Readiness

T
he future of AI is framed by high expectations. Yet A key place for public sector leaders to start is to under-
adoption is already paying off today with efficiency stand their economy’s level of exposure to AI by sector.
gains and return on investment. Businesses that are Exposure can lead to positive or negative impacts; for
scaling AI have boosted their revenues by 2.5 times com- example, in terms of jobs, exposure could lead to displace-
pared to competitors. When scaled across an entire econo- ment or create new employment opportunities throughout
my, such potential gains elevate AI to a pressing area for a sector. However, job displacement is not the only area of
policymaking—both today and in the years ahead. exposure. (See sidebar, “The Dimensions of AI Exposure.”)

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 5
The Dimensions of AI Exposure

We find that exposure appears on many levels.

Productivity. Recent BCG research shows how AI’s ability

to automate tasks and optimize processes helps both
workers and entire businesses. On one level, AI expands
employee capabilities. BCG research found that in our
organization, GenAI-supported consultants performed 20%
better on data science tasks that fell outside their usual
areas of expertise or training. One biopharma firm used
GenAI to shorten its drug discovery process by 25%.3 On a
broader scale, several economies in this study are exposed
to these potential shifts.

However, AI could also disrupt traditional workflows in

sectors reliant on manual processes, such as manufactur-
ing. Small businesses using classic methods will often
compete with larger companies that deploy AI-driven
automation. Such small businesses might struggle to
match the productivity of optimized firms, impacting the
sector’s overall performance.

Uneven Sectoral Impact. Some sectors may lag in AI

adoption, widening the gap between innovative industries
and slower-moving ones. For instance, even as a tech-ori-
ented sector like finance readily adopts AI, agriculture may
be slower to fit the technology into workflows, failing to
result in the overall productivity gains that could help boost
a nation’s economic performance.

Job Evolution. Most observers expect that AI will make

some job categories obsolete. But new jobs that call for
advanced technical skills, including AI specialists and AI
ethics officers, will offset some of the displacement or
create new employment opportunities in sectors that have
long lagged in hiring.

In our methodology, which represents a snapshot of the

current landscape, we gauge exposure scores through four
major sources:

• A BCG survey of business leaders across sectors on

their perceptions of exposure to AI

• The frequency and intensity of AI discussions during

quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed companies

• The number of AI-related job vacancies on LinkedIn

• GenAI-sourced insights on disruption across various

industries

3. BCG client experience.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 6
Our study includes several findings about sector exposure sectors also produce AI-related goods and services that
to AI: other industries use or sell. In other words, economies with
strong ICT sectors that produce AI technologies can see
Six sectors are most exposed to AI-driven changes. their GDPs grow.
These include information and communication; high-tech
goods; retail; financial services; public services; and motor For example, semiconductors created by an economy’s
vehicles manufacturing, as shown in Exhibit 1. high-tech goods sector—resulting in more powerful, effi-
cient chips—are used in onboard auto electronics for auton-
ICT sectors (such as information and communication and omous driving, enhanced safety features, and improved fuel
high-tech goods) show high exposure because AI can great- efficiency. Homegrown AI disrupts the economy’s automo-
ly transform how work gets done in these areas. Yet these tive sector, making it more innovative and competitive—
sectors are more than just hotbeds for automation. Such and growth soars for both automakers and chip makers.

Exhibit 1 - Exposure to AI: Heatmap of Sectors

SOURCES LEVERAGED TO GAUGE EXPOSURE

Exposure Survey of Publicly listed Job vacancies GenAI-sourced

Sector to AI business leaders companies on LinkedIn insights

Information and communication

High-tech goods

Retail and wholesale

Financial services

Public services High

exposure
Motor vehicles and parts

Business services

Accommodation and catering

Machinery and equipment

Transport and storage services

Oil and gas, coke, and refined petroleum

Utilities

Pharmaceuticals

Arts, recreation, union, and personal services

Textiles, leather, and clothing

Mining

Metals

Food, beverages, and tobacco Limited

exposure
Other transport equipment

Nonmetallic minerals

Chemical, rubber, plastics

Construction

Other miscellaneous

Agriculture, forestry, and fishery

Furniture manufacturing

Paper and wood products (without furniture)

Sources: BCG Center for Public Economics; BCG analysis.

Note: For more details on sources, see the report’s methodology section.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 7
Economies with a high share of sectors that are most Readiness by Degrees
exposed to AI are among the world’s most exposed
to disruption. The three most exposed economies in our Assessing readiness helps an economy understand its
study are Luxembourg (with financial services making up strengths and weaknesses as it manages technology risk
almost 30% of GDP); Hong Kong (22% financial services and makes the most of AI.
and 22% business services); and Singapore (18% business
services; 16% retail; 14% financial services).4 Readiness for AI refers to an economy’s ability to effective-
ly implement and integrate AI. This ability can be mea-
Economies with industry sectors that are less suscep- sured across six dimensions that make up BCG’s ASPIRE
tible to AI disruption are less exposed. Such sectors index: Ambition; Skills; Policy and regulation; Investment;
include construction, agriculture, and furniture manufactur- Research and innovation; and Ecosystem. (See Exhibit 2.)
ing; countries include Indonesia (13% agriculture and 11%
construction of GDP); India (17% agriculture and 8% con- This framework offers a comprehensive view on adoption
struction); and Ethiopia (36% agriculture). But these sectors levers for AI. Ambition assesses whether a country has a
can be fertile ground for economic transformation. specific AI strategy and a government entity to oversee it,
while Skills looks at the availability of AI specialists. (For
Along with boosting efficiency, AI can create positive more details, refer to the methodology at the end of the
spillover effects throughout an economy—especially report.) ASPIRE is useful for assessing the full range of
a less exposed economy. AI can spur growth in adjacent advanced, emerging, and developing economies, some of
sectors, helping a country shift the mix of sectors in its GDP. which are quite prepared for AI. It also showcases the
For example, AI-driven agricultural technology could help imbalances that often form when an economy is highly
optimize supply chains with data on crop yields, weather, advanced in some of these six areas and lacking develop-
and market trends. The country’s transportation sector ment in others. (See Exhibit 3.)
would become more efficient and modernized.
Most economies must do more to prepare them-
Ultimately, exposure to the changes brought by AI is selves adequately for AI disruption. The numbers are
inherent in today’s world. It’s inevitable that AI will show stark: Out of 73 economies assessed, only five—categorized
up somewhere in an economy, even to a limited degree, so as AI pioneers—have achieved a high level of readiness.
every country’s economy has at least some exposure to the More than 70% score below the halfway mark in categories
technology. Yet an economy with high exposure isn’t nec- like ecosystem participation, skills, and R&D.
essarily in a bad spot—on the contrary, some of the most
exposed economies are also the most prepared. Pioneers are out in front in skills, R&D, ecosystems,
and investments. In skills, the US and Singapore stand
out with robust AI talent pools, which are crucial for driving
innovation. The US leads in investing, driven by its sophisti-
cated capital markets and the abundance of AI unicorns. In
the R&D race, Mainland China is leading in patents and AI
academic papers.

Everywhere else, innovation and investment must

catch up. The bulk of economies score below the average
in R&D and investment, hindering their ability to foster
startups or deploy homegrown solutions. Some countries
that perform well in ecosystems, including Japan, Germa-
ny, and the UAE, have good telecommunications and AI
infrastructure; they’ve benefited by accessing new technol-
ogy from ecosystem partners. However, other economies
score lower in innovation and ecosystem participation,
leaving them with fewer options to access new solutions.

The ambition to engage AI is high throughout the

world—but countries need more than ambition. Most
economies, including upper-middle countries like the Domi-
nican Republic and lower-middle-income countries like Kenya,
have stated their national strategies or created national AI
ministries and steering committees. Yet societies will only find
positive outcomes if they move beyond planning and take pro-
active, concrete actions, such as forming test beds for R&D.
And for many actors, it will take time before tangible results
from AI emerge. Ambition must be paired with patience.
4. Sector share percentages are calculated from the total sum of all sectors, or GVA (gross value added), which we use as a proxy for GDP in the
report. GDP equals GVA plus taxes minus any subsidies.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 8
Exhibit 2 - Readiness for AI: ASPIRE Index

A S P I R E
Ambition Skills Policy and Investment Research and Ecosystem
regulation innovation
· Existence of AI · Concentration of · Regulatory quality · Value of AI unicorns · Research papers · Fixed broadband
strategy AI-related specialists · Governance · Mcap of IT-related published on AI internet traffic per
· Existence of · Pool of AI-related effectiveness and tech-related · AI-related patents capita
specialized AI specialists · Governance of data companies/GDP · Top-ranked · Electricity prices
government · Total public · Value of trade in ICT universities in data · Telecommunication
· Economic freedom
agency/ministry contributions in services (per capita) science and AI fields infrastructure index
index
GitHub by top 1,000 · Value of trade in ICT · Number of AI · Average download
· AI and democratic
users goods (per capita) startups speed
values index
· Kaggle Grandmasters · VC availability · Online service index
· Number of Python · Funding of AI · Performance of
package downloads companies economy-wide
per 1,000 people statistical systems
· Computer software
spending

Sources: BCG Center for Public Economics; BCG analysis.

Exhibit 3 - Readiness for AI: Measuring Economies

Policy and Research and
Economies Total ASPIRE Ambition Skills regulation Investment innovation Ecosystem
Canada
AI Mainland China 68 10 17 8 8 8 19
Singapore
pioneers United Kingdom 0 100 0 10 0 25 0 10 0 15 0 15 0 25
United States
Australia Japan
Finland Netherlands
France South Korea 58 10 14 8 6 4 16
Top 25% Germany Spain
India Sweden 0 100 0 10 0 25 0 10 0 15 0 15 0 25
Ireland Taiwan
Israel UAE
Austria Malaysia
Belgium New Zealand
Brazil Norway
Denmark Poland 47 9 11 7 4 2 14
Top 50% Estonia Portugal
Hong Kong Saudi Arabia 0 100 0 10 0 25 0 10 0 15 0 15 0 25
Indonesia Switzerland
Italy Türkiye
Luxembourg Vietnam
Argentina Malta
Chile Mexico
Colombia Pakistan
Cyprus Peru 38 10 8 6 2 1 11
Czechia Qatar
Top 75% Egypt Romania
Greece South Africa 0 100 0 10 0 25 0 10 0 15 0 15 0 25
Hungary Thailand
Latvia Ukraine
Lithuania
Bahrain Kuwait
Bulgaria Morocco 31 7 7 5 2 1 9
Dominican Oman
Top 90% Republic Philippines
Iran Slovakia 0 100 0 10 0 25 0 10 0 15 0 15 0 25
Kenya
Algeria Iraq 20 4 5 3 1 1 6
AI Angola Nigeria
emergents Ecuador Venezuela
0 100 0 10 0 25 0 10 0 15 0 15 0 25
Ethiopia

Minimum for dimension Maximum for dimension

Average
Sources: BCG Center for Public Economics; BCG analysis.
Note: Economies positioned at the borderline between the top AI pioneers and the top 25% range are considered as part of the top 25% group. Due
to rounding, the dimension scores may not sum up to the total score.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 9
The Archetypes of AI Adoption

T
he combined analysis of AI exposure and Pioneers will want to amplify their strategies to keep up
readiness reveals six distinct adoption groups. their competitive edge. But as competitive as technology
(See Exhibit 4.) evolution can be, countries everywhere should come to-
gether to address the emerging ethical questions around
AI Pioneers. These are the vanguards of AI adoption, AI. Pioneers can participate in these important ethical
building on strong infrastructures and engaging the tech- efforts in several ways. For one, they are authoring the
nology in diverse sectors. All pioneers invest greatly in world’s first AI-specific regulatory codes, which will likely be
R&D, as shown by the many tech companies, startups, models for regulation in other countries. These leaders
and unicorns in each of the five countries. Job sectors and should also convene nations throughout the world in dis-
education systems are full of highly skilled talent. cussions around AI ethics. (See sidebar, “How Singapore
Became an AI Pioneer.”)
AI will make up progressively larger shares of the pioneers’
GDPs over the next several years, as these actors supply
more and more AI technologies, services, skills, and invest-
ment to the world. For example, the US exports software,
platforms, and essential hardware for AI computing, as
well as cloud-based AI services. Mainland China exports
AI-powered consumer electronics, including autonomous
driving platforms. This presence in the global tech supply
chain allows pioneers to set standards and influence the
entire AI landscape.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 10
 Exhibit 4 - Definitions of the Archetypes
AI practitioners AI contenders
High

Exposed practitioners Steady contenders

Economies with relatively high Economies with relatively
exposure to AI and insufficient high exposure to Al and AI pioneers
levels of readiness sufficient levels of readiness Economies able to
for its adoption meet high levels of
exposure with
AI emergents extremely high
Economies with readiness
EXPOSURE

extremely low
readiness and
different levels of Gradual practitioners Rising contenders
exposure to AI Economies with relatively low Economies with relatively low
exposure to Al and low exposure to AI despite high
readiness for its adoption readiness for its adoption
Low

Bottom 10% READINESS Top 10%

Sources: BCG Center for Public Economics; BCG analysis.

AI contenders have a relatively high level of AI readiness. Rising Contenders. These are mainly economies with lower
These actors are enjoying efficient operations, lower costs, AI exposure due to a relatively higher share of industrial and/
and other benefits of adoption. Going further and acceler- or resource-based mix of sectors. This lower level of exposure
ating AI across sectors will strengthen their positions; if is the main difference between rising contenders and steady
these economies expand their stakes in niche or special- contenders, but governments in this subgroup push for AI
ized markets, they could compete with AI pioneers in such adoption with the same commitment as steady contenders.
areas. We split AI contenders into two archetypes:
An interesting case here is India, which is grouped with
Steady Contenders. These economies have higher shares several high-income economies because of its high level
of highly exposed service sectors, such as financial ser- of readiness.
vices. However, their exposure is balanced by high readi-
ness. This group is mainly dominated by high-income Eu- • The Indian government has launched several AI-focused
ropean economies like Germany, which has high exposure initiatives, such as the National AI Strategy and the
due to its large ICT and advanced manufacturing sectors. creation of centers of excellence in AI, which aim to inte-
Germany’s technological innovation and strong industrial grate AI into key sectors like agriculture and education.
base attract foreign trade and investment. Combined with
its robust AI strategy, the country has established itself as • India is investing heavily in AI education and training
a strong player in global tech markets. programs to build a large, tech-skilled workforce.

A notable country here from outside Europe is Malaysia. The • India has a rapidly growing startup ecosystem, partic-
strong focus of the Malaysian government on AI is evident in ularly in AI-driven fintech, health care, e-commerce,
its National AI Roadmap, tech hubs, and universities offer- edtech, and agritech.
ing AI training. This shows how public sector leadership can
help an emerging economy reach technology maturity and Two other notable examples in this group are Saudi Arabia
competitiveness on par with high-income economies. and Indonesia. Having focused on building AI foundations
since launching the National AI Strategy in 2020, Saudi
Arabia is now emerging as a global center of excellence in
fields of national priority such as Arabic language AI, indus-
trial and energy-related AI, as well as health care and
education. Indonesia, through its National AI Strategy, is
emphasizing education to meet the needs of its growing
population and foster long-term economic growth.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 11
How Singapore Became an AI Pioneer

Despite its small population, Singapore is a notable exam-

ple of AI adoption due to a successful government strategy
on AI—including talent, regulation, innovation, and invest-
ment. The country launched its National AI Strategy in
2019, with an updated version in 2023 (NAIS 2.0), focusing
on integrating AI across multiple sectors. In February 2024,
Singapore announced a five-year plan to invest more than
US$743 million in AI to strengthen its position as a global
business and innovation hub.

Skilling is a key piece of government efforts. The country’s

TechSkills Accelerator program has upskilled more than
230,000 people since 2016. The country’s AI Apprentice-
ship Program (AIAP) trains Singaporean tech workers on
real-world AI projects. Singapore has also moved to attract
talent; the ONE Pass and Tech@SG programs make it
easier for tech companies to hire international experts by
simplifying the visa process.

Singapore has launched specific AI policies and frame-

works. The Model AI Governance Framework guides com-
panies in the ethical use of AI, ensuring transparency and
accountability. The AI Verify Foundation is a global open-
source community to support companies in deploying AI
responsibly and maintaining stakeholder trust.

The country’s five-year national R&D strategy—the

Research, Innovation, and Enterprise (RIE) plan—funds
innovation with US$19 billion, launched in 2020 across
various sectors, including the digital economy. The AI
Singapore program brings together the country’s research
institutions in an ecosystem of innovation.

Singapore also established the Center for Frontier AI

Research (CFAR), which supports AI R&D related to nation-
al priorities.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 12
AI pioneers are the vanguards of
AI adoption, building on strong
infrastructures and engaging the
technology in diverse sectors.
AI practitioners make up a diverse group of countries at AI Emergents. These economies are at the early stages
different levels of economic progress. We split AI practi- of AI adoption. They need to build foundational strategies
tioners into two archetypes: and infrastructure to reach the basic levels of AI integration
and competitiveness.
Gradual Practitioners. These are typically upper-middle
and lower-middle-income countries that are adopting AI at These countries lack a national AI strategy or similar holis-
a moderate pace. Their economies include low-tech sectors tic approaches to AI. Skilled workers and investment are
such as tourism, textiles, wood manufacturing, and agri- often scarce, as is activity related to research papers,
culture, where adopting AI is not yet imperative for com- patents, and startups. Nations in this archetype should
panies. However, countries here can explore how AI brings look outward for international investment and sources of
efficiency or new revenue lines to these sectors. This will talent. They should also establish the basics of a govern-
maintain competitiveness and foster growth as the tech- ment-driven technology strategy.
nology becomes more relevant over time.
However, building competitiveness is not out of reach for
Long reliant on its energy resources, Qatar is using AI countries in this group. Nigeria has leveraged foreign direct
applications in the oil industry—its dominant sector—to investment to lead Africa’s fintech revolution. If the country
optimize production and boost sustainability. This puts focuses on developing AI talent within its growing popula-
Qatar at the leading edge of innovation in the industry. tion and adopts a more holistic approach—such as imple-
menting a national AI strategy—Nigeria could build on its
Exposed Practitioners. This group includes developing fintech momentum and become a key player in the conti-
and developed economies vulnerable to AI disruption due nent’s AI landscape.
to more high-exposure sectors and low readiness. Actors
here will need to accelerate AI adoption and mitigate
potential risks.

While these countries may currently have a gap between

their AI exposure and readiness, they are well positioned to
gain ground quickly with investments in infrastructure and
education. It is a sound strategy to focus on niche and
specialized markets.

• Malta is becoming a leader in AI regulation and block-

chain, building a safe and attractive environment for
tech companies.

• Cyprus is using a skilled workforce to develop AI applica-

tions in tourism and financial services.

Others in the group can build on the lessons learned:

Bahrain and Kuwait can leverage AI in the energy sector,
especially to optimize oil production and manage supply
chains. Greece and Bulgaria have strong academic tradi-
tions in engineering and mathematics, which can serve as
a foundation for building AI expertise. By investing in AI-fo-
cused education and retraining programs, they can en-
hance their readiness.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 14
Strategic Next Steps
What can governments do to position themselves for ad- • Accelerating AI: customizing the ASPIRE levers for
vantage in the AI-dominated future? We propose a set of AI contenders and AI practitioners
initiatives for each archetype across three themes, as
shown in Exhibit 5: • Amplifying AI: driving the global AI agenda for
AI pioneers
• Enabling AI: establishing the foundational elements
for AI emergents

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 15
Exhibit 5 - Recommendations on AI Adoption for Each Archetype
Enabling AI Accelerating AI Amplifying AI
AI emergents AI contenders AI pioneers
AI practitioners

Enable AI adoption through a Actively oversee AI adoption, Support leading AI

A Ambition
national AI strategy and a
dedicated entity to oversee
implementation.
with a focus on addressing
lagging topics.
industry(ies) across the
tech value chain.

Provide basic AI training and Attract and retain AI talent pool Enhance cross-cutting AI

S Skills
digital programs to modernize
the workforce.
(software developers, engineers)
and focus on big data and
advanced trainings in AI.
expertise and sector
specialization among AI
specialists.

P
Enhance government Focus on AI ethics Ensure centralized
Policy and
effectiveness to build a and flexible rules for oversight and more flexible
regulation foundation for AI. experimentation. rules on open data.

Boost investments in R&D, Boost investment in high- Provide tailored support

I Investment
university programs,
workshops, and engage the
private sector.
performance computing and
data centers, and attract FDI
in AI.
for national AI champions,
unicorns, and startups.

Establish research Create test beds for Focus on applied

R Research and
innovation
centers in AI and work
to ensure industry
collaboration.
developers and startups. research and ensure
cross-industry sharing.

Ensure basic digital Promote AI solutions Enhance cross-cutting

E Ecosystem
infrastructure (e.g.,
high-speed internet) to
enable AI adoption.
and new technologies for
strategic sectors.
AI application and
support advanced tech
infrastructure.

Sources: BCG Center for Public Economics; BCG analysis.

Note: FDI = foreign direct investment.

These recommendations offer a national-level approach to • Research and innovation. Encourage cross-disci-
AI readiness. Akin to the economy-wide level, economic plinary research in AI and applications in agriculture, lo-
managers can apply this to drive sectoral transformation. gistics and robotics, with an aim to share best practices.
For example, the framework can be used to drive change
across value chains in agriculture, logistics, and robotics: • Ecosystem. Create platforms that facilitate data sharing
between agritech companies and logistics firms; foster
• Ambition. Set national ambition to boost agriculture an ecosystem that connects robotics engineers, agritech
productivity through AI-powered agritech solutions, experts, and industrial sectors to help transition agricul-
robotics, and logistics. tural robotics to adjacent fields.

• Skills. Reskill workers in both agriculture and logistics With BCG’s AI Maturity Matrix, we hope to offer policymak-
sectors to adopt AI-based technologies in the agriculture ers a practical framework to navigate the evolving AI land-
value chain. scape and harness AI’s potential to strengthen economies
and enhance societal well-being.
• Policy and regulation. Develop policies that support
open data access and interoperability between agritech
data and supply chain systems.

• Investment. Invest in AI infrastructure such as Internet

of Things-enabled supply chains and predictive analyt-
ics platforms to optimize logistics using agritech data;
invest in R&D in scalable agricultural robotics.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 16
Methodology
We performed a comprehensive regional analysis by divid- Our analysis of economy-level AI exposure is based solely
ing the world into five geographical areas: the Americas, on a sectoral evaluation and the composition of the econo-
Asia, the Middle East and Africa, Europe, and Oceania. my across those sectors. It does not consider additional
Each area was further subdivided into relevant subregions. factors such as overseas workers or business process out-
We then selected the top economies by real GDP 2023 to sourcing. As a result, certain economies, such as India, may
ensure at least 50% coverage of the subregion’s total GDP.5 appear to have lower exposure based on our approach.
However, the large presence of Indian workers throughout
the world in the information and communication sectors, as
AI Exposure well as its business process outsourcing activities, factor
into other aspects of AI maturity.
Dimensions and Indicators
Sector-Level Indicators Economy-Wide Analysis

The AI exposure score evaluates the sensitivity of sectors For economy-level analysis, GDP sector breakdowns were
to AI and aggregates this factor at the economy-wide level sourced from Oxford Economics, except for Ethiopia and
based on GDP composition. Our sector classifications align the Dominican Republic, where national data was used to
with the Nomenclature of Economic Activities (NACE) used ensure comprehensive analysis.
by the EU. AI exposure in each sector is assessed using the
following sources. Weighting System

BCG Global Innovation Survey The weighting system for our AI exposure score balances
the reliability and significance of each data source:
This annual survey captures insights from more than 1,000
executives across 19 sectors, focusing on how AI is perceived • BCG Global Innovation Survey: 30%
as a top-three challenge. • Quid data analysis: 30%
• LinkedIn job postings: 30%
Quid Data Analysis • GenAI-sourced insights: 10%

Quid data analysis assesses quarterly earnings calls and Calculating Scores
discussions from more than 5,000 publicly listed compa- Our process of normalization harmonized sector scores
nies. The composite index developed from this data mea- from the four data sources, standardizing them on a 0 to
sures the frequency and depth of AI-related discussions 100 scale using minimum-maximum scaling. After normal-
within each sector, providing an indicator of AI’s relevance ization, the scores were weighted and combined to create
in corporate strategy. the final AI exposure score for each of the 26 sectors.

LinkedIn Job Postings Normalization Across Data Sources

These postings measure AI exposure via sectoral AI job Each sector’s score, as obtained from the four different
vacancies posted in LinkedIn as of June 2024, reflecting sources, was normalized independently on a scale of 0 to
workforce shifts. 100. The normalization followed a minimum-maximum
scaling method.
GenAI-Sourced Insights
Sector-Level Aggregation
AI models like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity AI were
used to evaluate the susceptibility of different sectors to AI After normalization, the scores from each source were
disruption. These models were informed by BCG’s propri- multiplied by their respective weights. This step allowed us
etary data related to the evaluation approach. to combine the normalized data into a single, weighted
sector-level AI exposure score.
There are sometimes divergences between the aforemen-
tioned sources. For example, business leaders might iden- Economy-Level Aggregation
tify AI as a challenge or opportunity before the job market
fully responds, resulting in a delay before more AI-related To assess an economy’s AI exposure, normalized sector
vacancies show up throughout an industry. This time lag scores are multiplied by each sector’s GDP contribution,
can create a gap between leadership perspectives and reflecting AI exposure based on sector importance.
observable changes in the labor market.

5. We used 2023 GDP data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database, April 2024 edition.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 17
AI Readiness

Dimensions and Indicators

To assess AI readiness, we selected 33 key indicators from
a broad set of AI-related metrics, minimizing overlap and
ensuring a comprehensive evaluation. These indicators are
organized under the ASPIRE framework, covering six foun-
dational elements:

• Ambition
• Skills
• Policy and regulation
• Investment
• Research and innovation
• Ecosystem

INDICATOR DIMENSION SOURCE(S) DESCRIPTION WEIGHT

Existence of AI strategy Ambition Government websites 100, if AI strategy exists; 0 if not 5.0%

Existence of specialized
AI government agency/ Ambition Government websites 100 if AI entity exists; 0 if not 5.0%
ministry

Concentration of AI- Number of LinkedIn accounts with AI-

Skills LinkedIn; World Bank 3.0%
related specialists filtered skills per 1,000 people

Pool of AI-related Number of LinkedIn accounts with AI-

Skills LinkedIn 8.0%
specialists filtered skills

Total public
Public contributions from top 1,000 users
contributions in GitHub Skills GitHub 3.0%
per economy
by top 1,000 users

Kaggle Grandmasters Skills Kaggle Number of grandmasters in AI competitions 8.0%

Number of Python
Python.org Number of scikit-learn downloads per 1,000
package downloads per Skills 3.0%
community people
1,000 people

Policy and
Regulatory quality World Bank Government ability to create sound policies 2.0%
regulation

Governance Policy and

World Bank Quality of public services and civil service 2.0%
effectiveness regulation

Policy and Global Data Quality of data management frameworks

Governance of data 2.0%
regulation Barometer and security

Composite index based on four pillars—rule

Policy and The Heritage
Economic freedom index of law, government size, regulatory 2.0%
regulation Foundation
efficiency, and open markets

AI and democratic Policy and Center for AI and The extent of how well AI development
2.0%
values index regulation Digital Policy aligns with democratic values

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 18
 INDICATOR DIMENSION SOURCE(S) DESCRIPTION WEIGHT

CB Insights, Global
Unicorn Club with Total value of AI companies exceeding $1
Value of AI unicorns Investment 3.0%
applied filter for billion valuation
“enterprise tech”

Mcap of IT-related Market capitalization of companies in the IT

and tech-related Investment S&P Capital IQ and tech sectors as a proportion of an 3.0%
companies/GDP economy’s gross domestic product (GDP)

UN Trade & Value of information and communication

Value of trade in ICT
Investment Development technology services traded (imported and 1.5%
services (per capita)
(UNCTAD) exported) per capita

Value of trade in ICT Value of ICT goods traded (imported and

Investment UNCTAD 1.5%
goods (per capita) exported) per capita

VC availability Investment Pitchbook Total funding in $ billions provided by VCs 1.5%

Total funding in $ billions provided to AI

Funding of AI companies Investment Pitchbook 3.0%
companies

Computer software World Intellectual Economy-wide investment in software

Investment 1.5%
spending Property Organization relative to its economic output

Research
Research papers SCImago Journal & Composite index: 0.5* papers + 0.25 h index
and 2.5%
published on AI Country Rank + 0.25 citations
innovation

Research
Number of patents filed that are specifically
AI-related patents and WIPO 5.0%
related to AI
innovation

Top-ranked universities Research Number of universities in an economy that

QS World University
in data science and AI and are ranked among the top institutions in 2.5%
Rankings
fields innovation these fields by QS

Artificial Intelligence
Research Index Report 2024,
Number of AI startups and Stanford University Number of AI startups in an economy 5.0%
innovation Human-Centered
Artificial Intelligence

Number of different data centers in an

Number of data centers Ecosystem Cloudscene data 4.0%
economy

Public cloud spend per Average expenditure on public cloud

Ecosystem Statista 4.0%
employee services per employee

Network Readiness
Adoption of emerging
Index, Portulans Extent to which companies in an economy
technologies by Ecosystem 4.0%
Institute and the adopt and integrate emerging technologies
companies
University of Oxford

Accessible Manual assessment of Composite score that assesses the

supercomputer capacity Ecosystem accessibility based on accessibility of processing cores of the top 1.0%
by economy top 500 supercomputers 500 supercomputers

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 19
 INDICATOR DIMENSION SOURCE(S) DESCRIPTION WEIGHT

Fixed broadband internet

Ecosystem DataHub Average data transferred per person 4.0%
traffic per capita

World Population
Electricity prices Ecosystem Price of electricity per kilowatt-hour 1.0%
Review

Telecommunication World Bank GovTech Availability and quality of telecom

Ecosystem 1.0%
infrastructure index Maturity Index 2022 infrastructure

Speedtest Global
Internet download speed in megabits per
Average download speed Ecosystem Index (for fixed 4.0%
second
broadband)

Online service index Ecosystem United Nations Government use of digital solutions 1.0%

Performance of
Quality of economy-wide statistical
economy-wide statistical Ecosystem World Bank 1.0%
agencies
systems

Data Timespan Peer Group Imputation

Our analysis primarily uses data from 2022 to 2024 to To address missing data in the AI Readiness Index, coun-
reflect current trends. We used earlier data for three areas: tries were grouped by region and income level, with miss-
data governance and value of ICT trade. We analyzed data ing values based on peer group medians. No such input
on AI startups from 2013 to 2023. was done for South Africa, Iraq, or Ethiopia, or for specific
indicators like AI-related patents, where values couldn’t be
Weighting System reliably estimated. Imputation never exceeded 15%, ensur-
ing at least 85% data completeness.
After selecting 33 key indicators for AI readiness, we as-
signed weights to each indicator and ASPIRE dimension Calculating Scores
based on internal expertise and consultations. Skills and Normalization
ecosystem received the highest weights as key enablers of
AI adoption, followed by investment and research and We applied normalization techniques to ensure consistency
innovation. across the indicators in the AI Readiness Index, transform-
ing raw data into standardized scores from 0 to 100. Most
indicators used traditional normalization. However, for
INDICATOR DIMENSION
indicators exhibiting significant skewness, we employed
Ambition 10% logarithmic normalization for better distribution handling.
Skills 25% Total Score
Policy and regulation 10%
Each economy received a normalized score for each indica-
Investment 15%
tor. These scores were weighted and summed to produce
Research and innovation 15% the final AI Readiness Index score for each economy, rang-
Ecosystem 25% ing from 0 to 100.

Each indicator was further weighted by significance (as

shown in the indicator table above), with AI-related indica-
tors prioritized. Statistical tests, including comparisons with
equal weighting across dimensions and indicators and
principal component analysis, were used to confirm weights.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 20
About the Authors
Christian Schwaerzler is managing director and partner Aparna Bharadwaj is a managing director and partner in
in the Dubai office of the Boston Consulting Group. He is the firm’s Singapore office. She is BCG’s global leader for the
the chair of BCG’s Center for Public Economics. He is a Global Advantage practice. She is also a core member of
global expert on economic development and development BCG’s Marketing, Sales & Pricing, and Public Sector practices.
strategies, and a member of the firm’s Public Sector prac- You may contact her by email at [email protected].
tice leadership team. You may contact him by email at
[email protected]. Akram Awad is a partner in the firm’s Riyadh office. He is
a core member of BCG’s Public Sector and Technology
Miguel Carrasco is a managing director and senior part- Advantage practices. Akram has advised public sector lead-
ner in the firm’s Sydney office. He is the global leader for the ers in the Middle East on unlocking the value of national
Center for Digital Government at BCG and BCG X for the data through AI to advance economies and societies. You
public sector. Miguel has deep expertise in artificial intelli- may contact him by email at [email protected].
gence, digital strategy and transformation, digital innovation
and service delivery, and the digital economy. You may Richard Sargeant is a managing director and partner in
contact him by email at [email protected]. the firm’s London office. Working in the public sector,
energy, and other industries, he supports clients in the UK
Christopher Daniel is a managing director and senior and around the world as they renew their organizations to
partner in the firm’s Dubai office. He leads the Economic take full advantage of artificial intelligence. You may con-
Development, Government Finance, and Center of Govern- tact him by email at [email protected].
ment (EFC) sector for BCG globally, and the Middle East
Public Sector practice. He is also the global lead for trans- Sanjay Nawandhar is an associate director in the firm’s
formation in government and people and organization Dubai office. He leads BCG’s Center for Public Economics.
within the public sector. You may contact him by email at He has worked extensively on projects with government
[email protected]. entities, centers of government, investment agencies, and
public sector companies in the Middle East and India. You
Brooke Bollyky is a managing director and partner in the may contact him by email at [email protected].
firm’s Washington, DC office. She is BCG’s North America
Public Sector Regional Practice Area lead. She is a long- Svetlana Kostikova is a project manager in the firm’s
time leader in the Public Sector practice and the firm’s Riyadh office. She has led multiple strategic projects across
work with the US federal government. You may contact her the Middle East, including the development of national
by email at [email protected]. strategies and management mechanisms, and the design
of governance and operating models. You may contact her
Yoshihisa Niwa is a managing director and senior partner by email at [email protected].
in the firm’s Tokyo office. He leads BCG’s Public Sector
practice in the Asia-Pacific region and the Climate & Sus-
tainability practice in Japan. He is also a core member of
the firm’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications, Social
Impact, and People & Organization practices. You may
contact him by email at [email protected].

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP THE AI MATURITY MATRIX: WHICH ECONOMIES ARE READY FOR AI? 21
Acknowledgments For Further Contact

The authors would like to thank Joerg Hildebrandt, Steve If you would like to discuss this report, please contact
Mills, David Zuluaga Martinez, Daniel Kiefer, Marc Roman the authors.
Franke, Amy MacDougall, Masahiro Nakagawa, Yvonne
Zhou, Vincent Chin, Lars Littig, Tauseef Charanya, Faris
Alfaris, Dwaa Osman, Nour Chamseddine, Laurence
Genillard, María Martínez Embil, and Usman Chaudhry for
their valuable contributions to this report.

Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business For information or permission to reprint, please contact
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