Artificial Intelligence in Banking A Lever For PR
Artificial Intelligence in Banking A Lever For PR
Introduction
1
See McCarthy, Minsky, Rochester, Shannon (1955).
2
Moore’s Law states that the processor speed of computers, or the number of transistors on an
affordable central processing unit, doubles approximately every two years.
hard drive cost per gigabyte has come down from around USD 5,000 in 1990
to some USD 0.025 today, the number of IT specialists grew by 50% in the
euro area between 2007 and 2017, for example.
Big data as input, data identification methods such as machine learning and the
greater affordability of these tools have been the driving factors behind AI’s
recent rapid success in understanding languages, recognising objects and
sounds, and observing and solving problems autonomously.
A technological field usually is more useful and has a greater value for the
economy in the years to come if there is a substantial increase in the number of
patents filed in this particular field.5 There were some 20,000 patent applications
in AI-related technologies in 2016, double the figure of 2010. Around 50% of
that was accounted for by AI patents in computer vision. This technology is
mostly used in self-driving cars and shows how intense competition in this area
currently is. Of the total AI patent applications in 2015 (the latest available data
3
The OECD identifies AI start-ups as firms whose business model focuses on i) “artificial
intelligence”, “machine learning” and “machine intelligence”; ii) “neural networks”, “deep learning”,
and “reinforcement learning”; and iii) “computer vision”, “predictive analytics”, “natural language
processing”, “autonomous vehicles”, “intelligent systems” and “virtual assistant”.
4
See WIPO (2019).
5
See Inaba and Squicciarini (2017) for a detailed explanation.
with respect to countries), the US accounted for about one-third, a more or less
stable share since 2010. Within the US, it was the tech giants who filed the
largest number of AI patents. China made up 25% of the applications in 2015,
up from 10% in 2010. Japan and the EU-28 each had a share of 14%, both
AI activity concentrated in a small set of
EU countries
down from around 20%. China increasingly seems to be replacing the EU and
4
Japan in AI research and development with potentially significant implications in
% of total AI patent applications in the EU between the future.
2010 and 2015
Within the EU, half of all AI patent applications originated in Germany and
France. Together with the UK (16%) and Sweden (8%), four countries account
21
31 for the lion’s share. Given that patents create a legal monopoly, they introduce
important first-mover advantages. Considering potentially large economies of
7
scale, countries unable to implement AI now might be at risk of remaining
8 behind for a long period of time.
17
16 In light of intensified global competition in IT in general and AI in particular, the
European Commission proposed a budget to fund research and innovation
DE FR UK SE NL Other EU
projects in Europe in March 2019. Horizon Europe is the successor of Horizon
2020, which has a volume of EUR 77 bn to be spent between 2014 and 2020.
Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research
Horizon Europe aims to allocate EUR 100 bn between 2021 and 2027. One of
the main sub-categories of Horizon Europe is the Digital Europe Programme,
which aims to invest EUR 9 bn specifically in high-performance computing and
ATM to bank branch ratio in Europe* 5
data, AI, cybersecurity and advanced digital skills projects. Even though Horizon
4 Europe represents an important step forward in enhancing AI technology in
Europe, its ability to drive successful AI projects remains to be seen. Indeed, its
predecessor received 115,000 innovation and research proposals between
3
2014 and 2016, yet only 14,000 proposals were selected for funding, a very low
success rate. The high rate of over-subscription is evidence of strong demand
2
for funding. But the large number of rejected applications points to some
underlying problems. Alternative solutions, such as enhancing IT literacy at early
1 ages or improving IT infrastructure, might be necessary to increase the number
of high-quality AI and innovation projects.
0
87 91 95 99 03 05 09 13 17
6
See Autor (2015).
35% in 2007. For clients who have little time to visit a branch, online banking
has become the main tool for standard services.
0
User Non-user User Potential Non-user Artificial intelligence in banking
user
Banking app Mobile payments For banks, data is essential to almost all business lines, from traditional deposit
Sources: Postbank Digital Study (2018), Deutsche Bank taking and lending to investment banking and asset management. Autonomous
Research
data management without human involvement therefore offers great
opportunities for banks to improve speed, accuracy and efficiency. Potential AI
applications in banking can be classified into four broad categories: 1)
customer-focused front office applications, 2) operations-focused back office
applications, 3) trading and portfolio management, 4) regulatory compliance.7 At
least for now, banks by and large are still experimenting with AI technologies
rather than fully implementing them in their processes. Customer- and
operations-focused AI solutions seem to be undergoing more intensive
exploration than others:
i) AI is being tested for real-time identification and prevention of fraud in online
banking. Indeed, credit card fraud has become one of the most prevalent
forms of cybercrime in recent years, which is exacerbated by the strong
growth in online and mobile payments.8 To identify fraudulent activity, AI
algorithms check the plausibility of clients’ credit card transactions in real
time and compare new transactions with previous amounts and locations. AI
AI implementation in banking 8 blocks transactions if it sees risks.
-Credit scoring
ii) AI is also being tested in KYC processes to verify the identity of clients. AI
Customer- -Insurance policies
algorithms scan client documents and evaluate the reliability of the
focused -Client-facing chatbots
information provided by comparing it with information from the internet. If AI
-Know your customer
algorithms identify inconsistencies, they raise a red flag and a more detailed
-Capital optimisation KYC check by bank employees is performed.
Operations- -Model risk management
focused -Stress testing
iii) Another area where banks are experimenting with AI technologies is
-Fraud detection chatbots. Chatbots are digital assistants that interact with clients by text or
voice and aim to address their requests without the involvement of a bank
Trading and
-Trade execution employee.
portfolio
-Portfolio management
management iv) Banks are also exploring AI to visualise information from legal documents or
annual reports, for example, and to extract important clauses. AI tools create
-Regulatory technology
models autonomously after observing the data and back testing to learn from
Regulatory -Macroprudential surveillance
their previous mistakes to improve accuracy.
compliance -Data quality assurance
-Supervisory technology v) Some existing financial technology tools evolve as true AI solutions over
Sources: FSB (2017), Deut sche Bank Research time, too. Good examples include robo-advisors that enable full automation
in certain asset management services and online financial planning tools that
help customers make more informed consumption and saving decisions. As
these financial technology solutions mature, they increasingly use techniques
that search data and find patterns in them autonomously.
7
For a detailed overview on how AI is being implemented in the individual categories of table 8,
please see FSB (2017).
8
See Mai (2018).
Despite its immense potential, some external factors might slow down AI
implementation in banking. To begin with, the EU’s General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR), which came into force in 2018, contains preventive clauses
on automated decision-making. This affects not only the financial industry but all
sectors in general. Article 22 of the GDPR states: “The data subject shall have
the right not to be subject to a decision based solely on automated processing,
including profiling...” This is particularly problematic for AI tools whose decision-
making by definition is solely automated. To overcome the restrictions under
Article 22, human involvement at some stage might be a solution. I.e. at the end
of the AI chain, the final decision could be given to humans. In addition, Article
13 of the GDPR involves disclosure provisions. For example, if an AI tool rejects
a bank account or loan application, the client has the right to know the logic
involved in this decision. Article 13 does not necessarily require the source code
of the AI algorithm to be revealed in detail. Yet some information on the input
parameters of the AI tool has to be disclosed. In any case, the intervention of
human programmers might be required in order to fully comply with these and
many other data privacy rules, a setback for the expected efficiency gains of AI.
Another likely impediment to AI use in banking is the potentially malicious
manipulation of big data. For example, hackers might try to flood systems with
fictitious data (fake social media accounts, websites, news) to influence AI
decision-making. As a result, AI tools might come up with biased decisions and
discriminate against certain individuals, or hackers could even take control of AI
systems. With AI systems being connected to each other, malevolent issues
might intensify. Even though AI itself has a relatively high level of accuracy in
detecting cyber-attacks and malware, the continuous surveillance and
monitoring of programmers might be necessary to address cybersecurity issues.
The introduction of regulatory sandboxes, where the safety of new AI tools is
tested in a real-world environment, might be beneficial in this context.
0.6 AI might contribute to bank profitability in two ways: First, by taking over
0.5
repetitive tasks from bank employees, autonomous AI software could reduce the
SE
demand for less-skilled labour and improve the efficiency of remaining bank
0.4
staff. This is crucial, as employee compensation usually represents a large
0.3 BE FR
ES NL share of banks’ cost base. Second, AI implementation could also contribute to
0.2 AT UK
DK revenue generation. For example, it might help banks to develop new products
0.1 DE
and offer tailor-made products better suited to client preferences. Nevertheless,
0 IT quantifying the link between the use of AI and bank profitability is hard, not least
-0.1 due to issues around identification and a lack of micro data. From an aggregate
20 30 40 50 60 70
angle, though, AI patent applications10 and ROA in the banking sector in
*Per 1,000 patent applications
European countries show an almost linear relation, with a correlation of 80%.
Sources: ECB, OECD, Deutsche Bank Research Banks seem to be more profitable in countries where the level of AI patent
activity is higher. At the same time, it is somewhat difficult at this early stage of
AI diffusion in banking to assess the potential operational risks and associated
What explains banks' ROA in Europe? 11
costs for banks which might stem from the increased use of AI.
% of variation in ROA explained by...
There are various factors that determine bank profitability which need to be
7 accounted for in an empirical setting. In our panel regression, we control for
macro and banking sector-specific indicators, as well as time-fixed effects, in
29
addition to AI. In our sample, we covered data from ten EU countries and a time
64 span from 2010 to 2015. The dependent variable of our analysis is the ROA of
the banking sector in individual countries. Our results reveal that macro factors
such as GDP growth and inflation are the most important contributors to bank
Macro factors
profitability. These explain two-thirds of the variation in bank profitability.
Banking-sector indicators Banking sector indicators such as cost-income ratio, equity-to-assets ratio and
AI implementation proxy non-performing loans explain some 30% of the variation in ROA. AI patents
positively impact ROA at statistically significant levels and explain 7% of the
Results of panel regression. The dependent variable is the
biannual ROA of the banking sector. Explanatory variables
variation in bank profitability. It is important to remember that there are large
are GDP growth, inflation, cost-income ratio, non-performing overlaps between standard IT solutions and sole AI applications and patents.
loans, equity-to-assets ratio, total assets of banks, share of AI
patents and time-fixed effects. The time dimension of the For example, large-capacity and high-speed data storage, as well as high-speed
analysis is from 2010 to 2015. The countries included are
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, computing patents, have a broader impact far beyond AI. In this vein, it may be
Sweden, the Netherlands and the UK. fair to argue that bank profitability is positively related to stronger use of AI in
Source: Deutsche Bank Research specific and stronger use of IT in general. Obviously, the causality could also
work the other way around, with more profitable banks investing more in AI.
9
See Bathaee (2018) for a detailed explanation.
10
We normalise the number of AI-related patents (i.e. divide them by the total number of patents in
a given country) to eliminate potential outlier effects, such as an overall increase in patent activity.
Concluding remarks
11
See e.g. Schildbach (2017).
Literature
Autor, David H. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and
Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29 (3), 3-
30.
Bathaee, Yavar (2018). The Artificial Intelligence Black Box and the Failure of
Intent and Causation. Harvard Journal of Law & Technology, 31 (2), 889-938.
FSB (2017). Artificial intelligence and machine learning in financial services:
Market developments and financial stability implications.
Humphrey, David B., Magnus Willesson, Göran Bergendahl and Ted Lindblom
(2003). Cost Savings from Electronic Payments and ATMs in Europe. FRB of
Philadelphia Working Paper No. 03-16.
Inaba, Takashi and Mariagrazia Squicciarini (2017). ICT: A new taxonomy
based on the international patent classification. OECD Science, Technology and
Industry Working Papers, 2017/01. OECD Publishing, Paris.
Mai, Heike (2018). Card fraud in Germany: Few incidents, but high costs.
Deutsche Bank Research. Talking Point.
McCarthy, John, Marvin L. Minsky, Nathaniel Rochester and Claude E. Shannon
(1955). A proposal for the Dartmouth summer research project on artificial
intelligence.
Postbank Digital Study (2018). Der digitale Deutsche und das Geld.
Schildbach, Jan (2017). Where do European banks stand? 10 years after the
start of the financial crisis. Deutsche Bank Research. EU Monitor.
WIPO (2019). Artificial Intelligence. WIPO Technology Trends.
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