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Financial Modelling - CMC

excel
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
47 views25 pages

Financial Modelling - CMC

excel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical

Units 2016 2017

Balance Sheet Assumptions


Key Ratios
Inventory (Days of raw materials cost) # days
Accounts Receivables (days of sales) # days
Accounts Payables (days of raw material costs) # days
Accrued Liability (days of raw material costs) # days
Deferred Revenue (days of sales) # days

Prepaid Expenses and other current assets Mn $ 22

Revenue Assumptions
Sales Prices
Cameras USD/ Item 400 420
Inflation %
Accessories USD/ Item 25 28
Inflation %

Sales Volumes
Cameras Items 468,475 939,310
Growth %
Accessories Items 1,874,000 4,696,429
Growth %

Cost Assumptions
Raw Material
Cameras USD/ Item 199 265
Inflation % 33.3%
Accessories USD/ Item 6 11
Inflation % 96.6%

Research and Development USD 18,740,000 31,560,000


%age of sales
Sales and Marketing USD 57,700,000 120,980,000
%age of sales
G&A USD 8,200,000 17,360,000
%age of sales

Asset Schedule Assumptions


Capex USD 200,000,000 -
Asset Life (SLM Method) Years 10 10
Disposal of Assets USD - -
Financing Assumptions
Interest Rates
Interest rate on Secured Loans %
Interest rate on Unsecured Loans %

Interest rate on Cash Balance %


Interest rate on Overdraft %

Repayments
Secured Loans Repayment Schedule USD -
Unsecured Loans Repayment Schedule USD 10,000,000

New Debt Issues


Secured Loans USD -
Unsecured Loans USD -

New Equity Raised USD -

Dividends Paid USD

Tax Assumptions
Corporate Tax Rate % 30.0% 30.0%

Valuation Assumptions
Risk free rate 7.5%
Beta 0.80
Expected return from market 15.0%
Cost of debt 10.0%
Target debt: capital ratio 0.50
Terminal Growth Rate 5.0%

WACC
Historical Forecasted
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!


- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -

22 22 22 22 22 22

440
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
35
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

1,635,432
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0%
4,788,000
-50.0% -25.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0%

287
8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
5
-52.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%

87,830,000
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
150,820,000
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
26,620,000
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

200,000,000 - - - - -
10 10 10 10 10 10
- - - - - -
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

- - - - - -
10,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000

- - - - - -
200,000,000 - - - - -

- - - - - -

- - - - -

30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%


Test with 5 years and then replace back to Original Value 10 yrs
30.0%
(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical
2016 2017 2018

Revenues
Cameras 187 395 720
Accessories 47 132 168
Total

Operating Costs
Raw Material Cost 103 300 494
Research and Development 19 32 88
Sales and Marketing 58 121 151
General and Adminstration 8 17 27
Total Operating Costs

EBITDA
Depreciation 20 20 40
EBIT
Interest expense 20 20 29
PBT
Taxes 2 5 18
PAT
Forecasted
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Assumptions
Assumptions

Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions

Asset Schedule

Debt Schedule

Assumptions
(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical
2016 2017 2018
Sources of Funds

Liabilities

Current Liabilities & Provisions


Overdraft - - -
Accounts payable 54 126 176
Accrued liabilities 49 86 133
Deferred revenue 27 88 115
Total Current Liabilities & Provisions

Non Current Liabilities


Secured Loans - - -
Unsecured Loans 200 190 380
Total Non Current Liabilities

Shareholders Equity
Paid-up Capital 50 50 50
Retained Earnings 4 16 57
Total Shareholders' Equity

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity

Usage of Funds

Current Assets
Cash 41 140 169
Accounts receivable 80 123 225
Inventories,net 60 112 175
Prepaid Expenses and other current assets 22 22 22
Total Current Assets

Non Current Assets


Gross Block 200 200 400
Accumulated depreciation 20 40 80
Net Block
WIP - - -

Total Assets

Balance Check
Forecasted
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

CF
Assumptions, P&L
Assumptions, P&L
Assumptions, P&L

Debt Schedule
Debt Schedule

Equity Schedule
Equity Schedule

CF
Assumptions, P&L
Assumptions, P&L
Assumptions or from here

Asset Schedule
Asset Schedule

Ignore this (Seems got left by mistake i


ptions, P&L
ptions, P&L
ptions, P&L

ptions, P&L
ptions, P&L
ptions or from here

this (Seems got left by mistake in template)


(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical
Units 2016 2017 2018

Depreciation Method SLM


Asset Life Years 10 10 10
Disposal of Assets USD Mn - - -

Capex USD Mn 200 - 200

Depreciation Schedule

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Total Depreciation

Gross Block
Opening Balance -
Add: Capex
Less: Assets Sold/ Disposed
Closing Balance

Accumulated Depreciation
Opening Balance -
Add: Depreciation during current year
Closing Balance
Forecasted
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10 10 10 10 10
- - - - -

- - - - -
(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical
2016 2017 2018 2019

Unsecured Loans
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance

Average Loan Outstanding


Interest Rate
Interest Expense

Secured Loans
Opening Balance - - -
Add: New Issued - - -
Less: Repayments - - -
Closing Balance - - - -

Average Loan Outstanding -


Interest Rate 10%
Interest Expense -

Total Interest Expense -

Cash/ (Overdraft)

Interest rate on Cash Balance 6%


Interest rate on Overdraft 8%

Interest Earned/ (Expense)

Net Interest Expense


Forecasted
2020 2021 2022 2023

Assumptions
Assumptions

Assumptions

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
10% 10% 10% 10%
- - - -

- - - -

CF

6% 6% 6% 6%
8% 8% 8% 8%
(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are i Historical Fo
2016 2017 2018 2019

Paid-Up Capital
Opening Balance 50
Add: New Equity Raised - - -
Closing Balance 50 50 50 50

Retained Earnings
Opening Balance
Add: PAT
Less: Dividends Paid - - -
Closing Balance -

Note: In PDF, this sheet is named as "Other Calc". Have renamed it to "Equity Sched
Forecasted
2020 2021 2022 2023

50 50 50 50
- - - -
50 50 50 50

P&L
- - - -

Have renamed it to "Equity Schedule" for better understanding


(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical
2016 2017 2018

Cashflow from Operating Activities


PAT
Add: Depreciation
Add: Interest Expense

Net Change in Working Capital


Add: Accounts payable
Add: Accrued liabilities
Add: Deferred revenue
Less: Accounts receivable
Less: Inventories,net
Less: Prepaid Expenses and other current assets
Net Change in Working Capital - -

Cashflow from Operations - -

Cashflow from Investment Activities


Less: Capex
Add: Disposal of Assets
Less: Increase in WIP
Cashflow from Investment Activities - -

Cashflow from Financing Activities


Add: New Equity Raised
Add: New Secured Loans Raised
Add: New Unsecured Loans Raised
Less: Secured Loans Repaid
Less: Unsecured Loans Repaid
Less: Dividends Paid
Less: Interest Expense
Cashflow from Financing Activities - -

Net Cashflow - -

Cash Balance
Opening Balance
Net Cashflow
Closing Balance
Forecasted
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

P&L
P&L
P&L

BS
BS
BS
BS
BS
BS
- - - - -

- - - - -

Asset Schedule
Asset Schedule

- - - - -

Equity Schedule
Debt Schedule
Debt Schedule
Debt Schedule
Debt Schedule
Equity Schedule
P&L
- - - - -

- - - - -
(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn) Historical
2016 2017 2018

DCF Valuation using FCFF

EBIT
Tax Rate (%) 30.0%
EBIT*(1-t)
Add: Depreciation
Less: Increase in Working Capital
Less: Capex and increase in WIP
Free Cashflow to the Firm (FCFF)

Risk free rate 7.5%


Beta 80.0%
Expected return from market 15.0%
Cost of equity
Cost of debt 10.0%
Post tax cost of debt
Target debt: capital ratio 50.0%
WACC

Terminal Growth Rate 5.0%

Terminal Value

CFs

Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Add: Total Cash
Equity Value
No. of Shares 100,000,000
Share Price (USD)
Forecasted
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0 0 0 0 0
(Unless otherwise specified, all financials are in USD Mn)
No. of Shares 100,000,000

Trading comps
Company EV/ Sales (x)
2018 2019 2020
Company A 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x
Company B 2.4x 2.2x 1.8x
Company C 2.8x 2.6x 2.2x
Company D 2.3x 2.1x 1.8x
Company E 2.2x 1.7x 1.5x

Median
Multiple (x) Sales EV
FY19E EV/ Sales (x)
FY20E EV/ Sales (x)

Multiple (x) EBITDA EV


FY19E EV/ EBITDA (x)
FY20E EV/ EBITDA (x)

Multiple (x) PAT Mkt Cap


FY19E P/ E (x)
FY20E P/ E (x)

Transaction Comps
Transaction Year EV/sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
A acquired B 2016 2.2 13.2
C acquired D 2016 1.2 8.8
E acquired F 2017 2.5 12
X acquired Y 2018 1.3 8.2
U acquired V 2018 2.4 14

Multiple (x) Sales EV


FY18A EV/ Sales (x)

Multiple (x) EBITDA EV


FY18A EV/ EBITDA (x)
Multiple (x) PAT Mkt Cap
FY18A P/ E (x)
EV/ EBITDA (x) P/ E (x)
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
11.2x 15.3x 14.7x 68.2x 65.3x 93.5x
12.4x 16.5x 15.1x 69.5x 66.4x 92.4x
12.6x 16.8x 15.5x 70.1x 67.2x 94.3x
11.1x 15.7x 14.9x 69.1x 66.6x 92.9x
10.5x 14.9x 14.1x 65.1x 64.1x 92.4x

Net Debt Mkt Cap Share Price

Net Debt Mkt Cap Share Price

Share Price

P/E (x)
36.3
27.3
33
25.1
33.1

Net Debt Mkt Cap Share Price

Net Debt Mkt Cap Share Price


Share Price

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