THE ASCENDING

SATELLITE NTN MARKET

How the IoT and NTN Mobile Technologies are
Propelling the $124.6 Billion Satellite Services Market—
and What That Means for SatCom Providers,
Mobile Operators, and Technology Vendors
 New Opportunities. New Players
In June 2022, the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) published a set of
communication standards for satellite networks. These Non-Terrestrial Networks
(NTNs) standards were designed to enable the integration of satellite networks and
terrestrial networks, ushering in a new era for the Internet of Things (IoT) and mobile
connectivity.
It appears that the initiative is having a profound impact on the Satellite
Communications (SatCom) industry, with a wave of notable satellite operators—
SpaceX, Viasat, Globalstar, Sateliot, OQ Technology, OneWeb, Intelsat, and
others—looking to take advantage of the market opportunity being created by
the convergence of satellite communications and terrestrial cellular networks. For
example, SatCom operators are increasingly collaborating with IoT solution providers
like eSAT Global, hiSky, Skylo Technologies, and Wyld Networks, to offer IoT services
with ubiquitous connectivity.
On the other side of the coin, smartphone manufacturers and chipset makers
like Apple, Qualcomm, Motorola, MediaTek, Huawei, and ZTE are making moves
that highlight excitement for consumer-grade devices supporting satellite
communications via Narrowband (NB)-NTN, NTN unmodified, and eventually, 5G New
Radio (NR)-NTN. Much of this growth is thanks to the smaller form factor of satellites,
as well as reduced launch costs by 98%, thanks to reusable rockets by SpaceX, and
better economies of scale thanks to standardized satellite bus and payload design.
All of these developments make it more affordable to launch satellites into orbit and
offer SatCom services to a wider audience, driving further market developments.
Highlighting this trend, the deployment of satellite constellations in Low Earth Orbit
(LEO) for low-latency, high throughput network applications, and extending terrestrial
network (TN) coverage continues to drive the adoption of satellite services in the
global telecommunications sector. This will help translate to US$124.6 billion in
annual satellite services revenue by the end of the decade.

“Satellite communications services have seen a new wave of

enthusiasm and convergence with terrestrial networks looking
to extend past their coverage zones and bridge the digital divide
… We are witnessing a growing trend of operators leveraging
software-defined satellites and multi-orbit solutions to meet the
connectivity demands of the future.”
– Andrew Cavalier, ABI Research Industry Analyst

CONTENTS
New Opportunities. New Players.......... 2 Satellite IoT Opportunities................. 5
Trends To Watch: NTN Mobile Opportunities................. 7
Satellite IoT Market Players.............. 3
Recent Satellite Industry Stories........... 9
Trends To Watch:
NTN Mobile Market Players............. 4 Satellite Industry Case Studies............ 10
Unlocking New Enterprise and Satellite IoT ........................................10
Consumer Opportunities with NTN Mobile.........................................11
Satellite NTN............................................ 5

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 TRENDS TO WATCH:
SATELLITE IOT MARKET PLAYERS
For satellite IoT players, ABI Research suggests factoring in the following to formulate
an optimal business model:

• Satellite IoT Solutions Should Improve Upon Existing Monitoring

Applications: While satellite IoT is not a new concept, the idea of leveraging
satellite connectivity for IoT applications is gaining traction across industries.
Enterprises expect satellite IoT solutions to augment traditional monitoring
applications (Condition-Based Monitoring (CBM), fleet management) that use
terrestrial infrastructure. This added value will come in the form of more accurate
and granular operational data, especially for job sites in remote areas lacking
proper TN support.

• Most Satellite IoT Connections Will Support Fleet Management

and CBM Applications: Fleet management and CBM account for the lion’s
share of the satellite IoT revenue opportunity. Maritime vessels, airplanes, and
heavy equipment vehicles in remote areas are often in cellular dead zones,
which satellite services could remedy. In turn, enterprises can track their
fleets (location, equipment failure, etc.) in real-time without any interruptions.
For CBM applications, satellites are essential in providing connectivity to IoT
sensors located outside the range of TNs. Agriculture, mining, drone, and video
surveillance applications are significant beneficiaries, given they are often in
remote and rural settings.

• Collaboration Is Commonplace in the Satellite IoT Market: Product

uniqueness is the name of the game in the satellite IoT market. As various players
race to the top of the market, partnerships have become a common strategy to fill
the voids that exist in their solutions. Industry collaboration enables companies to
leverage the differentiated capabilities of their partners, which helps improve the
end product.

• Constellation Type Affects Satellite IoT Capabilities: Geostationary Earth

Orbit (GEO) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations are the most common
deployments for satellite IoT. Regarding satellite IoT use cases, GEO constellations
are best matched for high IoT device density use cases where near real-time data
updates are a priority. LEO constellations, on the other hand, are better apt for
use cases where IoT devices are widely dispersed, and real-time data updates are
not essential. Another key difference between GEO and LEO constellations is that
the latter typically does not require an additional gateway to aggregate sensor
data; instead, the data can be sent straight to the LEO satellite.

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 TRENDS TO WATCH:
NTN MOBILE MARKET PLAYERS
The emerging trends defining the NTN mobile market include:

• NTN Mobile Is Seen As a Mitigator of Cellular Network Disconnectivity:

According to an analysis conducted by Lynk, roughly 3 billion mobile users
worldwide experience extended periods of cellular connectivity every year.
NTN mobile satellite is seen as a prime technological candidate for filling in
the gaps as it provides ubiquitous coverage despite environmental and
topographic conditions.

• Emergency Services Dominate the Early Market Opportunity for

Satellite-to-Mobile: NTN mobile use cases will primarily be tied to emergency
services communications (emergency SOS, Short-Message Service (SMS), and PPT)
for the near future using NB-IoT and NTN unmodified devices. Whereas TNs are
susceptible to physical damage and dysconnectivity during natural disasters, NTN
satellite keeps cellular coverage viable so that users can contact first responders.
Critical government-issued alerts, such as Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) and
personal device communications enabled via satcom, play a critical role in assisting
the estimated 218 million people affected by natural disasters annually.

• The Enterprise Opportunity Lies with Business-Critical Applications in

Tough-to-Reach Areas: On the enterprise side of things, NTN mobile is best
suited for remote operations connectivity in business-critical settings. Examples
of these enterprise settings include rural workers, transportation, utilities, oil &
gas, mining, and logistics.

• New Radio (NR)-NTN Will Introduce Higher-Bandwidth Mobile Use

Cases and More Revenue: New Radio (NR)-NTN is set to expand the satellite-
to-mobile market opportunity beyond business and mission-critical applications
with low data needs. As satellite networks embrace NR-NTN technology in the
coming years, satcom use cases will extend to more sophisticated applications
such as video conferencing, voice calls, social media, etc. This will result in higher
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for satellite-to-mobile services, particularly in
the North American, European, and Asia-Pacific markets.

• Asia-Pacific and North America Are the Biggest Regional Segments

for NTN Mobile: Asia-Pacific will be the largest NTN mobile segment, given
the significant amount of citizens affected by natural disasters. Moreover, the
island and mountainous topography of various countries in the region make TNs
unreliable. This brings satellite-to-mobile to the forefront as a supplemental or
replacement technology. North America will be the second-largest segment of the
NTN mobile market, due to millions of people in the region residing or working
in remote areas with poor cellular coverage. Additionally, many regions of North
America live in the path of tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, and wildfires—
making satellite connectivity important for emergency services communication.

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 Unlocking New Enterprise and Consumer
Opportunities with Satellite NTN
The future of SatCom services will be heavily defined by enterprise IoT and
consumer mobile applications. However, these two segments target different use
cases and customer bases. Therefore, to truly understand the NTN opportunity, it’s
important to distinguish between the primary market opportunities presented with
these segments.

Figure 1: The 5G NTN Architecture (Based on a Transparency Payload)

(Source: ABI Research)
NTN Payload

Service Link
Feeder Link
Uu

NG

5G Core 5G Base Satellite NTN NodeB NTN-Capable User

Network Station Operator, EPC (RAN) Gateway Equipment

SATELLITE IoT OPPORTUNITIES

3
© 2019 ABI Research

Satellite IoT is a perfect marriage for use cases where complexity is low, data
transmissions are aperiodic, and energy-saving features are desired for low
data rates and superior Quality-of-Service (QoS) communications. Satellite IoT
encompasses use cases like fleet management, condition-based monitoring, and
asset tracking. However, ABI Research also distinguishes this category from a sub-
segment called NB-NTN that targets consumer devices with low data needs and
minimal complexity, which is discussed in later sections.

Market Drivers for Satellite IoT Services

The following factors are driving demand for satellite IoT services:
• More Ubiquitous LEO Deployments: LEO satellite constellations are growing
rapidly, with many SatCom providers planning large-scale LEO deployments.
These developments open up better possibilities for IoT solution providers to
make their move.
• Lower Satellite Launch Costs: Between reusable rocket technology and a
more competitive market, the cost of launching satellites into orbit is dropping
rapidly, and that trend is expected to continue. A prominent example comes
from China, with the Long-Range Aerospace Transportation System expected to
reduce payload costs from US$3,000 per kg to roughly US$150 per kg.
• CubeSat Technology: LEO satellites can be deployed quicker and more
economically with square-shaped miniature satellites (CubeSats) because they can
be built with standard off-the-shelf components and “piggyback” off other launch
missions. A lot of new entrants to the satellite IoT market, such as Lacuna Space,
Myriota, Sateliot, and Astrocast, have made CubeSats their design of choice.

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 Enterprise Applications of Satellite IoT
Fleet management, condition-based monitoring, and asset tracking are the primary
applications of satellite IoT in the enterprise domain. Satellite communication services
facilitate reliable connectivity for objects in remote areas, making industry verticals
where objects are in motion a big focus. In the supply chain, for example, monitored
assets or goods could lose connection to a TN if the vehicle is out of range or the
cell tower is experiencing a disruption. However, if those same IoT-enabled assets or
goods are leveraging satellite connectivity, coverage is always seamless.

• Fleet Management: Maritime and air-based vehicles often lose connectivity

due to the nature of their travel journeys. This makes it challenging to collect
location, safety, and equipment related data, which is critical to ensure safety
and prevent assets from withering. Satellite IoT is especially useful in Oil and Gas
(O&G) industries and mining because operations are often located in remote
regions where TNs struggle. Satellite IoT services ensure heavy equipment like
cranes and excavators are transmitting telemetry information back to control
centers for performance monitoring and preventative maintenance.

• Condition-Based Monitoring: Satellite IoT enables uninterrupted and

accurate monitoring of water, gas, and electrical networks. If there’s a water or
gas leak, for example, utility operators will be alerted right away. Satellite IoT
also enables CBM IoT sensors to complement traditional environment/weather
monitoring solutions by providing a low-cost, low-power SatCom solution to
gather additional data points from remote areas. Finally, satellite-based CBM IoT
sensors provide farmers with data-driven insights in a low-cost manner.

• Asset Tracking: As assets like cargo and containers are being transported
from one location to another, they will typically move out of the reach of TNs,
especially when being transported by sea or air. Other assets, such as livestock
and animals, are also typically located in remote areas where there is limited or
unreliable terrestrial cellular service. Satellite IoT connectivity is key to ensuring
continuous monitoring of key assets to prevent damage or losses.

Partnerships Fill in the Gaps

Forming strategic partnerships is a major underlying theme swirling through the
satellite IoT market. These alliances come in two forms: one, satellite operators-IoT
solution providers; and two, satellite operator-operator.

For the first type of partnership, satellite operators and IoT solution providers
team up to deliver a full End-to-End (E2E) IoT solution for customers. For example,
the partnership between Lacuna Space and Wyld Networks sees the former
providing connectivity from space, while the latter is tasked with managing software
applications and IoT terminals/devices on the ground.

Relationships are also being molded between different satellite operators

themselves. This allows operators to expand coverage and take advantage of various
orbits, technologies, and spectrums. A good example of this comes from Astrocast
and Thuraya, where the former will use the latter’s L-band spectrum to provide IoT
services. Or another example is the conjoining of Omnispace and Ligado’s L-and
S-band spectrum for direct-to-device SatCom services.

All in all, there is a large number of companies looking to capitalize on the satellite IoT
opportunity with ecosystem synergy being key to maximizing potential customer bases.

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 NTN MOBILE OPPORTUNITIES
Where terrestrial communication infrastructure is limited or non-existent, satellite-
to-mobile services are a practical solution. Historically, “Satphones” have been
unattainable in the consumer markets due to prohibitively high costs, but 5G NTN is
changing this trend. While User Equipment (UE) won’t be solely dedicated to satellite
communications like Satphones are, they will support these services in addition
to mainstream features. Within the NTN mobile market, three primary technology
segments have materialized: NB-NTN, NTN unmodified, and 5G NR-NTN.

As a result, the popularity of satellite-enabled smartphones and services is

increasing, allowing consumers to access satellite services to communicate with
first responders and, eventually, for more sophisticated use cases. The first NTN
satellite-connected devices will be of the NB-NTN variety, prioritizing low data rate
text messaging and Push-to-Talk (PTT) for emergency coverage outside of TNs. For
example, a story has recently circulated through news outlets of a family caught in
the Maui wildfires that was rescued via iPhone 14’s satellite-based Emergency SOS
services. This allowed for contact with the local fire department and dispatchers,
which tracked their location and came to the scene in half an hour.

Meanwhile, NTN unmodified devices use satellite communications without

NTN System on Chips (SoCs), instead relying on 5G NTN UE software for NTN
connectivity. Gradually, the market will shift to device-native NR-NTN satellite to
enable higher data rates and Internet access. This will open the potential for new
consumer, enterprise, and industrial use cases.

Table 1 summarizes the differences between IoT-NTN and NR-NTN, which will
compete as the main satellite-to-mobile segments in the future (with unmodified
devices gradually dissipating).

Table 1: 3GPP NTN Satellite Communication Standards

(Source: ABI Research)

IoT-NTN New Radio-NTN (NR-NTN)

Category Narrowband Broadband
Wireless Communication Standard Narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) & LTE-M New Radio (NR)
Bandwidth 200 kHz 5 MHz to 20 MHz
Frequency Band L-Band (255)/S-Band (256) L-Band (255) / S-Band (256)
Narrow frequency bands typically in Wider frequency bands, including
the sub-GHz range both sub-6 GHz and Millimeter Wave
(mmWave)
Data Rate ~Kilobits per Second (Kbps) ~Megabits per Second (Mbps)
(handheld)
Applications Data Data and voice
Communication Features Typically optimized for low-power Designed to support higher data
consumption, extended coverage, rates and lower latency for tradition
and efficient communication of small broadband communications, such
amounts of data, suitable for IoT as video chats, voice calling, video
applications, such as smart meters, streaming, gaming, web surfing, etc.
asset tracking, and agricultural
monitoring.

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 NB-NTN Facilitates Mobile Applications with Low Data Needs
Initial satellite-to-mobile use cases will be restricted to low-power, low-complexity use
cases. This will be done via LTE NB-NTN and primarily encompass simple SMS messaging
and emergency service communications for the consumer segment. This first wave will
begin the process of turning traditional consumer smartphones into satellite-capable
devices. NB-NTN devices include 3GPP and non-3GPP compliant technologies and provide
satellite communications through L- and S-bands over adapted cellular, non-cellular, and
proprietary protocols directly to NTN-native UE.

NTN Unmodified Targets the Entire Mobile Userbase

Many satellite players, such as Starlink, Lynk, and AST, are interested in providing NTN
connectivity to users with mobile devices lacking native NTN capabilities. This means 5G
UE software is used for connectivity instead of NTN SoCs or modems. As a result, the
potential customer base is greatly expanded to essentially the entire existing mobile user
base, especially those unsubscribed to mobile services or not currently covered by a Mobile
Network Operator (MNO). While some satellite market players aim to unlock NR-NTN type
capabilities (e.g., video streaming, voice call, social media, etc.) with NTN unmodified, there
are some technical challenges making this a difficult task. Currently, these players only
support low data rate IoT-NTN-type capabilities, though the NTN unmodified segment will
be relatively short-lived as native satellite-to-mobile support becomes mainstream.

NR-NTN Introduces More Complex Mobile Applications

Eventually, smartphone-based satellite connectivity is expected to move beyond emergency
services with the increasing capacity of satellite networks for NR-NTN in the coming years.
NR-NTN is 3GPP-compliant and enables higher data rates supporting video calls, email,
social media, and other high-bandwidth applications. NR-NTN’s upgrades will bring many
exciting new opportunities for consumer, enterprise, and industrial applications as reliable
connectivity becomes available everywhere for smartphones, IoT devices, and vehicles.

NTN Mobile Market Forecasts

The demand for unmodified mobile devices is expected to peak in 2027 (22 million connections) be
By 2030, ABI Research anticipates that there will be more than 175 million NTN mobile
phasing off worldwide.
connections as NTN-native
Thisdevices becometomore
will translate ubiquitous.
US$16.3 Finally,
billion in ABI generated
revenue Research predicts
by the that NR
end of the forecast window, which is a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 76%enthusiasts a
roll out in 2026, with early movers like Globstar capturing early value among outdoor
between 2022 and
mission-critical 2030. Despite
professionals whohaving
requiremore globaldata
enhanced connections, NB-NTN revenue
rates. Consequently, willforbe
the market NR-NTN i
surpassed
to increaseby NR-NTN,
to more than given theconnec�ons
51 million latter’s better performance and, thus, higher price points.
by 2030.

Chart 1: NTN Mobile Connections by Service Segment

Chart 1: NTN Mobile Connections by Service Segment
World Markets:
World Markets: 20212020
to 2031
to 2030
(Source: ABI
(Source: ABI Research)
Research)

200
180
160
Connections (Millions)

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
NR-NTN NB-NTN NTN Unmodified

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 NTN mobile will initially be spurred by users accessing NB-NTN SatCom services (e.g.,
emergency SOS, SMS, and PTT), especially in rural North America and natural disaster-
prone Asia-Pacific. In the enterprise domain, NB-NTN will be used for low-powered
applications in mission-critical sectors like transport and logistics, mining, energy,
and defense. NB-NTN services are anticipated to become crucial and even necessary
support services worldwide and are expected to reach 111 million connections by 2030.

The demand for unmodified mobile devices is expected to peak in 2027 (22 million
connections) before phasing off as NTN-native devices become more ubiquitous. Finally,
ABI Research predicts that NR-NTN will roll out in 2026, with early movers like Globstar
capturing early value among outdoor enthusiasts and mission-critical professionals
who require enhanced data rates. Consequently, the market for NR-NTN is projected to
increase to more than 51 million connections by 2030.

Smartphone Ecosystem Activities

Smartphone equipment manufacturers, solutions providers, chipset vendors, and network
operators are very active in the NTN mobile market. Table 2 summarizes how some of
these companies are responding to the demand for NTN satellite-to-phone services.

Table 2: Companies in the NTN Mobile Market

(Source: ABI Research)

Company Product (s) RECENT SATELLITE

NTN Mobile Capabilities INDUSTRY STORIES
Apple iPhone 14; iPhone • Send preselected text messages to emergency services
Many• changes
14 Pro (smartphones) have
L-band for been
uplink made
and in the
S-band forsatellite
downlink market, with strategic partnerships
running rampant. Several recent announcements have shaped this growing space in
Bullit Group Bullit Satellite • Two-way satellite-based messaging
Messenger recent years.
• Emergency services communication
(mobile app) • Automatically switches to satellite when cellular or Wi-Fi is unavailable
Satellite
• Uses IoT
GEOStories
constellations from Inmarsat and EchoStar

Huawei Mate 50, P60, Mate X3, • Short text messages via China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System
and Nova 11 Ultra • One-way messaging with Mate 50
models (smartphones) • Two-way messaging with P60, Mate X3, and Nova 11 Ultra

MediaTek MT6825 (chipset) • Compatible with 3GPP Rel-17 standard for NTN satellite networks
• Phones with the chip can connect with any IoT-NTN-supported constellation

Motorola Motorola Defy 2; • Defy 2 natively supports 5G two-way satellite connectivity

Motorola Defy • Defy Satellite Link is a Bluetooth accessory enabling two-way emergency
Satellite Link devices texting for normal smartphones
(smartphones)

Qualcomm Snapdragon Satellite • Pole-to-pole emergency satellite connectivity in previously unreached regions
(chipset) • Two-way SMS messaging with custom messages supported
• Limited to 160 characters per text
• Message contacts in the address book

Samsung Exynos (modem); • Exynos modems are 5G NTN-standardized and support two-way text
Electronics Samsung Galaxy S24 messaging and High-Definition (HD) image and video sharing
series (smartphone) • Galaxy 24 series rumored to sport the Snapdragon chip, enabling two-way
satellite connectivity

Skylo Skylo Hub • Acts like a wireless gateway for satellite

(terminal) • Currently compatible with GEO MSS satellites (e.g., Inmarsat and EchoStar);
plans to support LEO constellations soon
• Uses NB-NTN protocol, thus only supporting SMS or text messaging with
small sizes (50-byte or 10-byte packets

ZTE Axon 50 Ultra • Two-way messaging via BeiDou satellites

(smartphone) • First 5G consumer mobile phone to support secure SatCom (in-house
security chip with hardware-level encryption)
• Potential for restriction to Chinese markets due to reliance on BeiDou

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 Satellite Industry Case Studies
Many changes have been made in the satellite market, with strategic partnerships
running rampant. Several recent announcements have shaped this growing space in
recent years.

SATELLITE IoT
Zamil Offshore and Inmarsat
Saudi Arabian Oil and Gas company Zamil Offshore conferred with Inmarsat
in 2022 to use Inmarsat’s Fleet Connect and Fleet Data IoT solution to provide
video-based performance management to more than sixty vessels. Inmarsat’s
IoT solutions offer satellite connectivity and data analytics to Zamil operators in
tough-to-reach regions, which is crucial to monitoring activities and optimizing
workflows.

Terex and ORBCOMM

The partnership between manufacturer Terex and IoT solution provider
ORBCOMM sees the latter utilizing an E2E telematics solution that facilitates
the tracking and monitoring of the performance of crushers. When cellular
connectivity is unavailable, the IoT solution utilizes satellite communications.
ORCOMM’s SatCom offering allows Terex’s fleet managers to access dynamic
dashboards, filters, and custom reports for data-driven insight, even in cellular
dead zones.

Digitanimal and Astrocast

Digitanimal has partnered with Astrocast to offer a satellite IoT solution that
enables farmers to track their livestock and animals remotely. With this solution,
farmers are empowered with real-time location information of their herds and
can also be alerted when an animal drifts into an area that it is not supposed
to enter.

Semtech Corporation, IoT Ventures, and Lacuna Space

Using the LR-FHSS LoRaWAN module, semiconductor company Semtech
Corporation, New Zealand’s IoT Ventures, and connectivity provider Lacuna
Space developed the Drought Early Warning System. This low-powered, satellite-
supported network monitors and analyzes rainfall and water consumption in rural
New Zealand and islands in the South Pacific via rainwater tanks and rainwater
monitors. Satellites keep the CBM IoT devices connected at these remote
locations, which utility providers can use for better water supply management.

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 NTN MOBILE

AST Mobile and MNOs

AST SpaceMobile bases its business model around leveraging the terrestrial
spectrum of MNOs. The company has aligned itself with over twenty-five MNOs,
with Vodaphone, Rakuten Mobile, AT&T, and Orange being prime allies.

Qualcomm and Iridium

Qualcomm has chosen Iridium Communications as its preferred satellite partner
for its Snapdragon Satellite solution. With this alliance, Qualcomm has access to
sixty-six operational LEO satellites positioned in six polar planes intersecting over
the North and South Poles.

BeiDou and Chinese Smartphone Manufacturers

BeiDou has partnered with leading Chinese smartphone manufacturers Huawei
and ZTE to deliver SatCom capabilities. As a result, these companies provide
consumers with mobile devices that can send text messages in areas without
cellular connectivity, which is crucial in emergencies.

Apple and Globalstar

Apple reportedly loaned US$252 million to Globalstar to help finance a new
fleet of LEO satellites. This move unlocks satellite-based emergency services
with Apple products. Moreover, Apple will be allocated up to 85% of the new
satellites’ capacity.

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of emerging NTN mobile sectors?
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