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The Upshot’s 2024 N.F.L. playoff simulator. See all teams, or select a team
How the Dallas Cowboys
Can Make the Playoffs
>99%
By Josh Katz, Kevin Quealy and Rumsey Taylor
Dec. 2, 2024 Updated 7:58 a.m. ET
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The Dallas Cowboys (5-7) beat the New York Giants on Thursday, Chance to make the playoffs
but their chances of making the playoffs remained 1 percent. Based on 80,574 simulations. More simulations
Likeliest Playoff Positions
The table below represents the Cowboys’ remaining games. Pick NFC SCENARIO PROBABILITY
a winner and see what happens to the Cowboys’ playoff chances: Bye week <1%
Host wild card <1%
If the Cowboys win If the Cowboys lose
Wild card >99%
WEEK 14
Cowboys Bengals
Out <1%
WEEK 15
Cowboys at Panthers
WEEK 16
Cowboys Buccaneers
WEEK 17
Cowboys at Eagles
WEEK 18
Cowboys Commanders
Reset
Better Doesn’t Worse
for the Cowboys matter for the Cowboys
As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change,
reflecting their relative importance. Explore other possibilities,
like a first-round bye or a division title, right here:
choose scenario…
The tables below represent every N.F.L. game remaining. Pick
winners and explore which games matter most to the Cowboys’
chances.
Week 13
THU
Bears at Lions 12:30 ET
Giants at Cowboys 4:30 ET
Dolphins at Packers 8:20 ET
FRI
Raiders at Chiefs 3:00 ET
SUN
Chargers at Falcons 1:00 ET
Steelers at Bengals 1:00 ET
Cardinals at Vikings 1:00 ET
Colts at Patriots 1:00 ET
Seahawks at Jets 1:00 ET
Titans at Commanders 1:00 ET
Texans at Jaguars 1:00 ET
Rams at Saints 4:05 ET
Buccaneers at Panthers 4:05 ET
Eagles at Ravens 4:25 ET
49ers at Bills 8:20 ET
MON
Browns at Broncos 8:15 ET
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Week 14
THU
Packers at Lions 8:15 ET
SUN
Jaguars >99% at Titans >99% 1:00 ET
Jets >99% at Dolphins >99% 1:00 ET
Falcons at Vikings 1:00 ET
Saints >99% at Giants >99% 1:00 ET
Panthers >99% at Eagles >99% 1:00 ET
Browns >99% at Steelers >99% 1:00 ET
Raiders >99% at Buccaneers >99% 1:00 ET
Seahawks at Cardinals 4:05 ET
Bills at Rams 4:25 ET
Bears at 49ers 4:25 ET
Chargers >99% at Chiefs >99% 8:20 ET
MON
Bengals at Cowboys 8:15 ET
Reset
Week 15
THU
Rams at 49ers 8:15 ET
SUN
Chiefs >99% at Browns >99% 1:00 ET
Bengals >99% at Titans >99% 1:00 ET
Commanders at Saints 1:00 ET
Ravens at Giants 1:00 ET
Cowboys at Panthers 1:00 ET
Jets >99% at Jaguars >99% 1:00 ET
Dolphins >99% at Texans >99% 1:00 ET
Colts >99% at Broncos >99% 4:25 ET
Bills >99% at Lions >99% 4:25 ET
Steelers >99% at Eagles >99% 4:25 ET
Patriots >99% at Cardinals >99% 4:25 ET
Buccaneers at Chargers 4:25 ET
Packers at Seahawks 8:20 ET
MON
Bears at Vikings 8:00 ET
Falcons at Raiders 8:30 ET
Reset
Week 16
THU
Browns >99% at Bengals >99% 8:15 ET
SAT
Texans >99% at Chiefs >99% 1:00 ET
Steelers >99% at Ravens >99% 4:30 ET
SUN
Giants >99% at Falcons >99% 1:00 ET
Patriots >99% at Bills >99% 1:00 ET
Lions >99% at Bears >99% 1:00 ET
Titans >99% at Colts >99% 1:00 ET
Rams >99% at Jets >99% 1:00 ET
Eagles at Commanders 1:00 ET
Cardinals at Panthers 1:00 ET
Broncos >99% at Chargers >99% 4:05 ET
Vikings at Seahawks 4:05 ET
Jaguars >99% at Raiders >99% 4:25 ET
49ers >99% at Dolphins >99% 4:25 ET
Buccaneers at Cowboys 8:20 ET
MON
Saints >99% at Packers >99% 8:15 ET
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Week 17
WED
Chiefs >99% at Steelers >99% 1:00 ET
Ravens >99% at Texans >99% 4:30 ET
THU
Seahawks >99% at Bears >99% 8:15 ET
SUN
Broncos >99% at Bengals >99% 12:00 ET
Cardinals >99% at Rams >99% 12:00 ET
Chargers >99% at Patriots >99% 12:00 ET
Colts >99% at Giants >99% 12:00 ET
Falcons at Commanders 12:00 ET
Jets >99% at Bills >99% 1:00 ET
Packers >99% at Vikings >99% 1:00 ET
Raiders >99% at Saints >99% 1:00 ET
Panthers >99% at Buccaneers >99% 1:00 ET
Titans >99% at Jaguars >99% 1:00 ET
Cowboys at Eagles 4:25 ET
Dolphins >99% at Browns >99% 8:20 ET
MON
Lions at 49ers 8:15 ET
Reset
Week 18
SUN
Panthers >99% at Falcons >99% 12:00 ET
Commanders at Cowboys 12:00 ET
Chiefs >99% at Broncos >99% 12:00 ET
Vikings >99% at Lions >99% 12:00 ET
Bears >99% at Packers >99% 12:00 ET
Texans >99% at Titans >99% 12:00 ET
Jaguars >99% at Colts >99% 12:00 ET
Chargers >99% at Raiders >99% 12:00 ET
Seahawks >99% at Rams >99% 12:00 ET
Bills >99% at Patriots >99% 12:00 ET
Dolphins >99% at Jets >99% 12:00 ET
Giants >99% at Eagles >99% 12:00 ET
49ers >99% at Cardinals >99% 12:00 ET
Bengals >99% at Steelers >99% 12:00 ET
Saints >99% at Buccaneers >99% 12:00 ET
Browns >99% at Ravens >99% 12:00 ET
Reset
About the simulator
With 78 games remaining, there are about 302 sextillion
sextillion different
sextillion
sextillion
ways the N.F.L. regular season could end.
So we built this simulator. Most
Most
Most calculators force you to choose
Mostcalculators
calculators
calculators
the winners of each remaining game. Here, you can choose the
outcomes of just a few games and see how your team’s chances
grow or shrink.
Cowboys coverage from
Unlimited for All Access and The Athletic subscribers.
sextillion
NFL playoff picture, Week 13: Steelers seize
control of AFC North, Bills clinch AFC East
Most calculators
Cowboys Today: Did Dallas plan to do TD
celebration with chicken nuggets?
'Sky is the limit' for DeMarvion Overshown — his
pick six was just what the Cowboys needed
We estimate odds by randomly
randomly
randomly simulating the remainder of the
randomlysimulating
simulating
simulating
season thousands of times and counting how often the Cowboys
make the playoffs.
If you don’t specify an outcome for a particular game, we use an
Elo
Elo rating
Elorating system
system combined with information from betting
ratingsystem
markets to estimate each team’s chances of winning. (For
simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance —
one in 200 — of ending in a tie.)
Explore other teams randomly simulating
This page is most useful for Cowboys fans, but you may use this
tool to explore scenarios for any team on the playoff bubble.
AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West
Bills ✓ Steelers Texans Chiefs ✓
Elo rating
Dolphins
system
Ravens Colts Chargers
Jets Bengals Titans Broncos
Patriots ✗ Browns Jaguars Raiders ✗
NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West
Eagles Lions Falcons Seahawks
Commanders Vikings Buccaneers Cardinals
Cowboys Packers Saints Rams
Giants ✗ Bears Panthers 49ers
See more on: National Football League
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