Introduction to Statistics

STA 101

S M Rajib Hossain

MNS, BRAC University

Lecture-5
 Probability

In our daily life very often, we use the term ‘Probability’. Probability or a
tendency ‘uncertainty’ or ‘chance’ refers to the probable movements or to
occur an event. Every day we express our thinking using the sentences like:

i. Everyone who lives will die

ii. We can live without breathing

iii. It may rain today

The idea of probability is expressed in the above three sentences. In the first
sentence, we see a must, that is a certain incident or event. Every certain
event is an obvious proclamation of probability. Here the value of the
probability is 1. In the second sentence, the probability of living without
breathing is zero. Now if we consider the third sentence, we realize that
there lies a probability of rain today. Here we do not know the exact
probability but the probability lies between 0 to 1.

Some important definitions related to probability:

Experiment: An experiment is an act that can be repeated under some given

identical conditions.

Example: Throwing a die, tossing a coin, drawing cards from a bridge deck.

Experiments can be of two types:

1. Deterministic or Predictable: An experiment whose outcome is

predictable in advance is called deterministic experiment. Everyone
conducting that experiment will get the same outcome.
Examples:

✓ Measuring the aerial distance from Teknaf to Tutuila.

✓ Counting the number of floors in the Burj Khalifa.

2. Random or Unpredictable: A random experiment is an experiment that

can be repeated any number of times under some identical conditions where
the outcome of any particular trial should not be known but all possible
outcomes should be known in advance.

Example: Tossing a fair coin or throwing a die and observing what the top
shows.

Outcome and Sample Space

A possible result of a random experiment is known as an outcome.
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is
known as sample space.

Example: If we throw a die the outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Then S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} is a sample space.

Example: Consider the experiment of rolling two fair 6-sided dice, one
black and one red, and recording the numbers on the upper face of the dice.
The sample space of the experiment would be:

Black Die

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

Red Die
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Events

An event E can be defined as a set of outcomes of an experiment. Or simply,

an event E is any subset of a sample space S

Example:

● For the experiment of throwing a 6-sided die,

● Sample space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

● Event E: The top face shows 3. Then E = {3}

● Event A: The top face is even. Then A = {2, 4, 6}

Mutually Exclusive event: If the happening of any of the events excludes
the happening of all the others, then the events would be termed as mutually
exclusive events.

Example: If we toss a coin, two outcomes head (H) and tail (T) are mutually
exclusive events. Because if it appears head (H) or tail (T) not both head and
tail at the same time.

Collectively Exhaustive Events

Collectively exhaustive events are those, which includes all possible

outcomes.

For example:

In a coin tossing experiment events E1={Head} and event E2={Tail} are

collectively exhaustive, because together they comprise all the outcomes that
are possible in a coin tossing experiment. There are no other possible
outcomes of this experiment than these two.

Equally Likely Events

The events of a random experiment are called equally likely if the chances
of those events occurring are all equal.

For example;

● In a coin tossing experiment, the events E1= {Head} and event E2={Tail}
are equally likely, because the chance of E1 occurring is the same as the
chance of E2 occurring.

● On a given day, Event E1={Rain} & event E2={No rain} may not be
equally likely.
Disjoint and Joint Events

Two events are called disjoint, if they have no common elements between
them. Mutually exclusive events are disjoint events.

Two events are called joint, if they have some common elements between
them.

Basic Set Operations

Union: The union of two events A and B, denoted by A ⋃ B, include
elements that belong to either A, B or both.

Intersection: The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by A ⋂ B,

include elements that must belong to both A and B.
Complement: The complement of an event A, denoted by A′ or 𝐴𝑐 , include
all the elements that do not belong to A. It is expressed as A∪B

Approaches and Axioms of Probability

Definition of Probability: There are mainly three definitions of probability,

namely

1. Classical approach.
2. Frequency approach / Empirical Approach.
3. Subjective Approach.

Classical Approach: If a random experiment can result in n(S) mutually

exclusive, exhaustive, and equally likely outcomes and if n(A) of these
outcomes are favorable to an event A, then the probability of A is the ratio of
𝑛(𝐴)
n(A) to n(S). In symbol, 𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑆)

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑙𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Example: Consider the experiment of throwing a 6-sided die.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Consider two events, E1={3} and E2={2, 4, 6}
Here, n(S)=6, n(E1)=1, and n(E2)=3
Therefore,
𝑛(𝐸1) 1
𝑃(𝐸1) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 6
𝑛(𝐸2) 3 1
𝑃(𝐸2) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 6 2
Frequency Approach: If an experiment is repeated n times under similar
conditions as a result of which an event A occurs m times, then the limit of
the ratio m/n tends to an idealized value as n becomes infinitely large. This
idealized value is called the probability of the event A. Symbolically,
𝑃(𝐴) = lim (𝑚⁄𝑛)
𝑛→∞

Example: Consider the experiment of throwing a 6-sided die.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let the favourable event be E={3}

After repeating the experiment 1200 times, 3 occurred a total of 198 times
198 1
Therefore, 𝑃(𝐴) = lim ( )≈
𝑛→∞ 1200 6

Subjective Approach

Subjective probability is the probability that an individual assigns to an

event E, based on their judgement (personal experience, prior information
and belief, etc.)

For example: You go out with a friend to a park, and seeing the clouds in the
sky, your friend says there is a 60% chance of it raining today.
Axioms of Probability:

The axioms of probability are a set of postulates that define probability as a

set function:

Axiom 1: The probability of any event is non-negative: 𝑃(𝐴) ≥ 0.

Axiom 2: The probability of the sample space is equal to 1: 𝑃(𝑆) = 1

Axiom 3: The probability of the union of any collection of mutually

exclusive events is the sum of the individual probabilities:

𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ) = ∑∞
𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 )

Example: In a particular locality of 700 people, 105 people were found to

be infected with COVID-19. If a person is selected at random from the
locality, what is the probability that s/he does not have COVID-19?

Solution:

Let, D = the randomly selected person has COVID 19.

Here,

P(D) =105/700 = 0.15 ∴ P(𝐷𝑐 ) =1 −0.15= 0.85

So, the probability that s/he does not have the disease is 0.85.

Example: A bag contains 4 white and 6 black balls. If one ball is drawn at
random from the bag, what is the probability that it is:

1. P(Black) = 6/10

2. P(White) = 4/10

3. P(White or Black) = P(White) + P(Black) = 4/10 + 6/10 = 1

4. P(Red) = 0

Practice Problems

1. Some people are in favor of reducing federal taxes to increase consumer

spending and others are against it. Two persons are selected and their
opinions are recorded. Assuming no one is undecided, list the possible
outcomes.
Solution:
Let:
𝐹 represent "in favor."
𝐴 represent "against."
The possible outcomes are:{(F,F),(F,A),(A,F),(A,A)}.

2. In each of the following cases, indicate whether classical, empirical, or

subjective probability is used.
a) A baseball player gets a hit in 30 out of 100 times at bat. The
probability is .3 that he gets a hit in his next at bat.
b) A seven-member committee of students is formed to study
environmental issues. What is the likelihood that any one of the seven
is randomly chosen as the spokesperson?
c) You purchase a ticket for the Lotto Canada lottery. Over 5 million
tickets were sold. What is the likelihood you will win the $1 million
jackpot?
d) The probability of an earthquake in northern California in the next 10
years above 5.0 on the Richter Scale is .80.
 Solution:

a) Empirical.
b) Classical.
c) Classical.
d) Subjective.

3. A sample of 40 oil industry executives was selected to test a

questionnaire. One question about environmental issues required a yes or
no answer.
a. What is the experiment?
b. List one possible event.
c. Ten of the 40 executives responded yes. Based on these sample
responses, what is the probability that an oil industry executive will
respond yes?
d. What concept of probability does this illustrate?
e. Are each of the possible outcomes equally likely and mutually
exclusive?

Solution:
a. The survey of 40 people about environmental issues
b. 26 or more respond yes, for example.
c. 10/40 = .25
d. Empirical
e. The events are not equally likely, but they are mutually
exclusive.
 4. Bank of America customers select their own three-digit personal
identification number (PIN) for use at ATMs.
a. Think of this as an experiment and list four possible outcomes.
b. What is the probability that a customer will pick 259 as their PIN?
c. Which concept of probability did you use to answer (b)?

Solution:

a. Answers will vary. Here are some possibilities: 123, 124, 125, 999
1
b.
103

c. Classical

5. An experiment has four equally likely outcomes: E1, E2, E3, and E4.

a. What is the probability that E2 occurs?

b. What is the probability that any two of the outcomes occur (e.g., E1 or
E3)?

c. What is the probability that any three of the outcomes occur (e.g., E1 or
E2 or E4)?

Solution:

a. ¼

b. ½

c. ¾

6. Consider the experiment of selecting a playing card from a deck of 52

playing cards. Each card corresponds to a sample point with a 1/52
probability.
 a. list the sample points in the event an ace is selected.

b. list the sample points in the event a club is selected.

c. list the sample points in the event a face card ( jack, queen, or king) is
selected.

d. Find the probabilities associated with each of the events in parts (a), (b),
and (c).

Solution:

a. S ={ace of clubs, ace of diamonds, ace of hearts, ace of spades}

b. S ={2 of clubs, 3 of clubs, . . . , 10 of clubs, J of clubs, Q of clubs, K of

clubs, A of clubs}

c. There are 12; jack, queen, or king in each of the four suits

d. For (a): 4/52 = 1/13 = .08

For (b): 13/52 = 1/4 = .25

For (c): 12/52 = .23

7. Consider the experiment of rolling a pair of dice. Suppose that we are

interested in the sum of the face values showing on the dice.

a. how many sample points are possible? (hint: use the counting rule for
multiple-step experiments.)

b. list the sample points.

c. What is the probability of obtaining a value of 7?

d. What is the probability of obtaining a value of 9 or greater?

 e. because each roll has six possible even values (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12) and
only five possible odd values (3, 5, 7, 9, and 11), the dice should show even
values more often than odd values. Do you agree with this statement?
Explain.

f. What method did you use to assign the probabilities requested?

Solution:

a. 36

c. ⅙

d. 5/15

e. No; P(odd) = P(even) = ½

f. Classical

8. Fortune magazine publishes an annual list of the 500 largest companies in

the United States. The corporate headquarters for the 500 companies are

located in 38 different states. The following table shows the 8 states with the

largest number of Fortune 500 companies (Money/CNN website, May, 2012)

Number of Number of

State Companies State Companies

California 53 ohio 28

Illinois 32 Pennsylvania 23

New Jersey 21 Texas 52

New york 50 Virginia 24

Suppose one of the 500 companies is selected at random for a follow-up
questionnaire.

a. What is the probability that the company selected has its corporate headquarters
in California?

b. What is the probability that the company selected has its corporate headquarters
in California, New york, or Texas?

c. What is the probability that the company selected has its corporate headquarters
in one of the 8 states listed above?

Solution:

a. Let C = corporate headquarters located in California.

P(C) = 53/500 = .106

b. Let N = corporate headquarters located in New York

T = corporate headquarters located in Texas

P(N) = 50/500 = .100

P(T) = 52/500 = .104

P(C) + P(N) + P(T) = .106 + .100 + .104 = .31

c. Let A = corporate headquarters located in one of the eight states.

P(A) = 283/500 = .566

9. Junior Achievement uSA and the Allstate Foundation surveyed teenagers aged
14 to 18 and asked at what age they think that they will become financially
independent (Usa today, April 30, 2012). The responses of 944 teenagers who
answered this survey question are as follows.

Age

Financially Number of

Independent Responses

16 to 20 191

21 to 24 467

25 to 27 244

28 or older 42

Consider the experiment of randomly selecting a teenager from the population of

teenagers aged 14 to 18.

a. Compute the probability of being financially independent for each of the four
age categories.

b. What is the probability of being financially independent before the age of 25?

c. What is the probability of being financially independent after the age of 24?

d. Do the probabilities suggest that the teenagers may be somewhat unrealistic in

their expectations about when they will become financially independent?
Solution:

a.

Experimental Age Number of

Outcome Financially Responses Probability

Independent

E1 16 to 20 191 191/944 = 0.2023

E2 21 to 24 467 467/944 = 0.4947

E3 25 to 27 244 244/944 = 0.2585

E4 28 or older 42 42/944 = 0.0445

= 944

b. P(Age <25) = P(E1) +P(E2) =.2023+ .4947=.6970

c. P(Age>24)= P(E3)+P(E4)=.2585+.0445=.3030

d. The probability of being financially independent before the age of 25, .6970,
seems high given the general economic conditions. It appears that the teenagers
who responded to this survey may have unrealistic expectations about becoming
financially independent at a relatively young age.