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1
 FOREWORD

Welcome to Racing Secrets Exposed.

When I first wrote this guide, way back in 2006, it was focused solely on laying
horses.

The betting exchanges were still a relatively new phenomenon and there was
massive interest in winning money from laying horses.

I had no idea how popular it would become and it went on to sell over 3000 copies
(priced at £47).

But over the past few years I've had an overwhelming number of punters email me
to say they are only interested in backing horses.

It seems the laying bug has died down somewhat.

So in the last update of this guide (back in 2013) I decided to gear it towards finding
horses to back rather than lay.

If you are interested in laying the principles still work (you just have to tweak what
you are looking for).

For layers I have included a couple of notes throughout this guide so you can get
something out of it too.

Laying is simply betting on an outcome not to happen.

So if you were to lay a horse you would be betting that it does NOT win the race.

If this is a new concept to you please check out the excellent guide here...

http://betting.betfair.com/what-is-lay-betting.html

2
 INTRODUCTION

I'd like to briefly say a word on how this guide came about.

I know it sounds a bit melodramatic but I owe all of my success to a chance meeting
with a freelance odds compiler.

I'd always had a keen interest in betting, both on the horses and football, but like
most I was not a winning gambler.

I couldn't say how much I lost because I didn't record my bets but I know for a fact
that it's in the thousands.

I suppose I was like most punters.

I didn't really know the fundamentals of reading form and most of my betting
decisions were heavily influenced by what the journalists were saying.

The typical mug punter really.

That all changed when I received a phone call from a friend of mine whose family
ran the local newsagent.

He'd been chatting to a customer who came in very every morning and bought the
Racing Post.

It turns out this guy was a freelance odds compiler.

Fast forward a couple of days and he'd very kindly agreed to meet me over a coffee.

It was a very eye opening experience.

He completely broke down the basics of horse racing betting.

He explained what he looks for when compiling odds, and the big mistakes the
majority of punters make.

By the time he'd finished talking (and I'd finished asking a multitude of questions)
my copy of the Racing Post was covered in notes.

There literally wasn't a bit of blank space left.

To be honest it was a little overwhelming.

I realised I'd been going about things in completely the wrong manner.

But the number one take away I got from the meeting concerned a little form

3
reading trick I had never thought of.

When looking over a horse's form how do you decide if the horse ran well or not?

I just used to look at finishing position.

But the real trick when reading form is to compare the horse's finishing
position with the horse's expected finishing position (as predicted by its
position in the odds market for that race).

I'll go into this in more detail in the next section.

When I got home from meeting with the odds compiler I wrote the notes up and the
basics became the very first edition of Racing Secrets Exposed that I wrote way back
in 2006.

Since then it's been downloaded over 10,000 times and I've had great feedback
from many, many customers.

It seems a very long time ago now but my betting has improved immeasurably.

Betting is just like any skill.

First you have to master the fundamentals and then you can begin to go a little
deeper.

The key is to never stop learning. Read the racing newspapers, read blogs, read
racing and betting books.

You don't have to go overboard though.

Remember it's a hobby. But done right it's a hobby that can provide an excellent
second income.

I really hope you take the time to actually read this manual and put it into action.

Please don't let it sit on your hard drive gathering dust.

I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed putting it together.

Let's crack on.

4
 STUDYING A HORSE'S RACING HISTORY

Obviously to study form you need to be able to study a horse's racing history.

I personally use the Racing Post website for this. There are plenty of other websites
that will show you the same thing.

So feel free to use whichever one you feel most comfortable with.

As I said I use the Racing Post so all the screenshots in this guide will be from that
website.

At the Racing Post a horse's profile page will look like this...

The page is divided into 3 clear sections.

The top section gives us simple information about the horse like name, age, owner,
trainer etc.

The middle section shows us the horse's history from a stats point of view.

The final section details every race the horse has competed in.

5
It is this section that is most useful to us as it gives us good information about the
horse's abilities on different surfaces and distances.

There are 8 columns here; DATE, RACE CONDITIONS, WGT, RACE OUTCOME,
JOCKEY, OR, TS and RPR.

DATE
The date of the race.

RACE CONDITIONS
This column tells us the track, the distance, the going and the type of race. The
distance is measured in furlongs (there are 8 furlongs in a mile). The type of race
tells us what class it is (For example C5 means class 5 etc.), Hc means it was a
handicap, H means it was a hurdle race, CH means it was a chase. The number at
the end is simply the amount of prize money that was on offer.

WGT
This is the weight the horse had to carry in stones and pounds. 9-2 means 9 stones
and 2 lbs.

RACE OUTCOME
This tells you the horse's position out of the number of runners, the distance it lost
(or won) by, then the name and weight of the winning horse. If you click on this
column it brings up the full race result with full Racing Post analysis. This analysis
can be a good source of information about how the horse ran.

JOCKEY
The jockey on board the horse

OR
Official Rating for that race.

TS
Topspeed for that race

RPR
Racing Post Rating for that race.

6
 FINDING WINNING BETS

In this guide I'm going to explain how I go about finding winners at the top end of
the market.

Favourites win a greater percentage of winners than other horses, so if you want to
pick regular winners it makes sense to start with them doesn't it?

But not all favourites are created equal.

Some are favourites based on hype.

The hype surrounding a horse can be heightened by several different factors

including recent form, who the trainer is, which jockey is on board and of course
journalists.

For example if you had blindly backed all favourites since 2005 you would have a
ROI of -2.92% (based on backing at BSP).

But if you had blindly backed all favourites since 2005 that had won last time out
you would have a ROI of -4.26 (based on backing at BSP).

That's an increase in losses of 46% and is solely down to punters over-hyping a

horse that won last time out.

Journalists also have a big affect on a horse's price. Punters are always checking
what horse their favourite paper tipster has tipped in a given race without realising
just how bad they really are.

For example one of the most popular is Templegate from the Sun. This year if you
had backed every one of his selections you could expect to lose 15p for every £1
staked.

Over the course of the year you would lose thousands betting with £10 stakes.

The top trainers and jockeys are also over-hyped.

Punters see a top jockey riding for a top trainer on the favourite and pile in with no
thought of forming reading at all.

This is another quick way to the poor house.

It's perfectly fine to back a horse that is ridden by a top jockey and/or trained by a
top trainer.

But ONLY if you have done your homework. (And in this guide I'll show you how).

7
Far too many punters back them blindly because of the hype surrounding these
horses.

As you'll see in this guide I have no interest in hype whatsoever.

I don't care what the trainer is saying nor do I care about the opinion of the media
personalities.

I'm only interested in cold hard facts.

As far as I'm concerned there are four fundamentals in horse racing.

These are: Going, Distance, Class and Course.

I'm sure some of you reading this will be thinking...

“Surely you have to look at more than 4 factors when reading form?!”

But evidence suggest otherwise.

In 2018 researchers tested how accurate a number of handicappers were at

predicting winners when they are given a variety of form factors.

When they were given 5 form factors they had a winning rate of 18%.

And when they were given 40 factors they still had a winning rate of 18%.

It goes to show quality not quantity counts in this game.

For me to back a short priced horse it must have proven in its past races that it runs
as the market expects (or better) when these four fundamentals are taken into
account.

Most punters simply look at a horse’s finishing position to decide how well a horse
ran.

But this doesn’t give you the full story.

As I mentioned in the introduction...

The real trick when reading form is to compare the horse's finishing
position with the horse's expected finishing position (as predicted by its
position in the odds market for that race).

Due to the wisdom of crowds the Betfair odds of a horse are the most accurate
gauge of its chances in the race.

8
And so comparing a horse’s finishing position with its position in the odds market is
the easiest way to gauge if a horse ran well or not.

So if a horse came second and it was second in the odds market then it ran to par so
to speak.

If it finished 3rd or worse it ran worse than expected.

Why is this so important?

Let’s say you wanted to see if a specific horse runs well over 8f.

You would probably have a look at its finishing positions in 8f races.

Imagine they read 323.

The horse has placed in each race and so you might think this horse runs well over
this distance.

But what if that horse had been a short priced favourite in each of those races?

Now you could say the complete opposite, that the horse has been under performing
recently.

So you might not want to back it after all.

Let’s use another hypothetical example with a outsider.

Let’s say you’re looking at a horse’s previous record on heavy going and you see that
it has form figures of 978.

You might disregard at first glance. They aren’t great form figures and maybe you
decide the horse doesn’t run well on the mud.

But what if it was the rank outsider in each race, and each had, say, 13 runners?

You could now conclude that the horse had actually run better than expected each
time.

Here's how I go about form reading in this manner...

I look back at a horse's form in the specific conditions (i.e. the four fundamentals)
of today's race.

And each time I ask myself; “Did the horse finish in the position it should have done
as predicted by the market?”

9
So if it was the favourite it should have finished first and if it didn't then it didn't
perform as it was expected to by the betting market.

If it was a second favourite it should have finished second. If it finished first then it
ran better then expected. If it finished 3rd or worse then it ran worse than expected.

And so on and so forth.

Essentially I'm looking for a favourite that has proven it runs as the market expects
when all four fundamentals have been taken into account.

Logic dictates that if this horse always runs as the market expects in today's specific
conditions, then I can assume it will win today's race if it is a favourite.

Of course you don't win every time.

But by doing this you can hit a really good strike rate because you are ignoring all
the horses that are being asked to do something they haven't done before.

In the next section I'll go through these four fundamentals in more detail.

Note For Layers

As I said the majority of punters base their betting decisions on one thing: hype.

And this is great for us from a laying perspective.

There are plenty of examples of false favourites that you should be able to find
every day.

If you like laying then what you are looking for is simple...

A favourite that consistently runs worse than the market expects over
one or more of the four fundamentals.

10
 THE 4 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS IN FINDING WINNING BETS

GOING

The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The
descriptions are as follows;

Hy = heavy,
Sft = soft,
GS = good-to-soft,
Gd = good,
GF = good-to-firm
Fm = firm
St = Standard (for All-Weather tracks).
Sl = Slow (for All-Weather tracks).

As far as I'm concerned the going is the most important factor in any horse race.

There is a big difference even between good-to-soft and good-to-firm going.

And there is a big difference between turf racing and AW racing.

Some horses can run equally well on any type of going/surface but many have a
preference.

A horse may be a top performer when the ground is firm but make it run on soft
ground and it could be very ordinary.

If I'm backing a horse I want it to have proven form over the going.

Note For Layers

If I'm laying a horse I want it to be running on particular ground conditions for the
first time or have run worse than the market expected on its previous outings in
these ground conditions.

As I said a couple of pages back I judge form by asking the question...

Did the horse perform as expected in relation to its position in the odds market?

For example let's say we're looking at a race on heavy ground.

And let's say the short priced favourite has run on heavy ground once before and
finished 3rd.

11
A lot of punters would quickly peruse the horse's history, see that the horse has
been placed on heavy ground before and assume the horse is fine on the mud.

But what if in that previous race on heavy going the horse was a short priced
favourite and finished well behind the winner?

For me that would represent an under par run and it may have been the going that
caused it.

So it would get a black mark from me and I would not be backing it (in fact it could
be a possible laying opportunity).

SIDE NOTE:

A lot of punters claim that backing favourites on heavy going is unwise as the sticky
ground makes for more random results.

However there's nothing really in this claim.

The table below shows the results based on backing all favourites for the past 10
years in different ground conditions.

(Figures correct up to 2018).

STRIKE RATE
FIRM 35.91%
GOOD-TO-FIRM 33.02%
GOOD 31.23%
GOOD-TO-SOFT 31.84%
SOFT 33.15%
HEAVY 35.27%
STANDARD 32.68%

As you can see favourites have a better strike rate on the extremes of going: firm
and heavy.

DISTANCE

Distance is another vitally important factor in a horse race.

As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance.

12
Some horses are good over a variety of distances others can have speed or stamina
issues and only have a chance at specific distances.

Journalists are always harping on about how a horse will benefit from a step up in
trip.

But as you've probably gathered by now I'm not interested in guess work. Just cold
hard facts.

My number one rule when backing favourites is...

Never back a favourite to do something it has never done before.

As with the going I will only back a short priced horse if it has proven form over the
race distance.

The table below shows the ROI based on blindly backing favourites at SP with the
number of runs a horse has had at that distance.

(Stats based on the period 2003-18)

Runs at that distance ROI (based on backing horse at SP)

0 -6.75%
1 -6.62%
2 -5.88%
3 -5.5%

There is a clear correlation between the profits when backing horses and the
number of runs a horse has had at that distance.

If you're backing a horse that is running the distance for the first time then you're
simply guessing it will run well.

You don't really know how it will take to the extra furlong(s).

But if the horse has run over that distance a few times before and has run well, then
you know the distance will not pose a problem.

Note For Layers

If I'm laying a horse I want it to be running over a particular distance for the first
time or have run worse than the market expected on its previous outings over the
distance of today's race.

13
CLASS

There are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants.

It probably won't surprise you to know that favourites who are moving up in class
have a worse strike rate that those either staying in the same class or dropping in
class.

And if the horse is running in that class for the first time then it's even worse news
for backers.

What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in its first conditions
race simply because it won its maiden comfortably.

However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own
maidens.

As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class
category depending on the prize money available.

The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:

FLAT CLASS SYSTEM

3yo+ 2yo 3yo+ 2yo
Cls 1 Group 1.......................... £200 £165k Cls 3 76-95..... £12.5k £11k
Group 2.......................... k £70k Cls 4 66-85..... £8.5k £7k
Group 3.......................... £90k £40k Cls 5 56-75..... £5k £5k
Listed incl 96-110 hcps.. £50k £23.5k Cls 6 46-65..... £3.5k £3.5k
Cls 2 Heritage open hcps........ £28k - Cls 7 0- incl regional bands A-D £2k
Nurseries........................ £45k £20k 50.......
86-110........................... - £13k
£18k

The table below summarises the different classes for jump races:

JUMP CLASS SYSTEM

Chase NovChs Hurdle NovHu NHFlat
Cls 1 Grade 1...................................... £100k £50k £75k r £25k
Grade 2 incl limited hcps........... £50k £32k £40k £40k £20k
Grade 3 open hcps..................... £50k £45k £28k
Listed ........................................ £25k £20k £22k £15k
Cls 2 Open hcps ................................. £23k £18k £18k £18k
0-140+........................................ £20k £14k £14k
Cls 3 0-115/135.................................. £10k £8k £8k
Cls 4 0-100/115.................................. £5.5-10k £4.5-8k £4.5-8k
Cls 5 0-85/95...................................... £3.5-5.5k £3.2-4.5k £3.2-4.5k
Cls 6 HuntCh & £1.6 – 3.5k £2.5-3.2k

14
 JUMP CLASS SYSTEM
NHF...........................

The lower the class number the better quality the horses are and the more prize
money available. Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst.

We're going to follow the same process that we did for the going and the distance.

For me to back a favourite it must have proven form in the race class.

When judging class I try to look for form in the same specific race type.

For example, if a horse I was interested in backing was running in a class 5

handicap I would pay more attention to its form in class 5 handicaps rather than all
class 5 races.

SIDE NOTE:

Most punters will tell you that you are better off backing favourites in higher class
races because the form is more significant and all the horses are “trying”.

But as with most of these adages the facts don't back it up.

The table below shows the return you would make blindly backing all favourites in
each specific class...

(All stats cover the period 2008-18 and are based on backing at Betfair Start Price).

Class ROI (%)

1 -4.14
2 -3.82
3 -3.76
4 -3.23
5 -3.29
6 -3.06
7 -1.41

Now that doesn't mean you should only focus on backing favourites in class 7 races
(just as you shouldn't just lay favourites in class 1 races) but it's certainly a decent
place to start to improve your returns.

15
 Note For Layers

If I'm laying a horse I want it to be running in particular class for the first time or
have run worse than the market expected on its previous outings in the class of
today's race.

COURSE

UK horse racing courses vary wildly in their nature and as such is a massively
important factor that needs close study.

I'm sure you've heard of the term “Horses For Courses” before. Basically some
horses will only ever run well if it is suited to the course.

You could literally spend hours studying a horse's form on different courses.

However I like to keep it simple.

I like to look at three different areas when it comes to course suitability.

1. Size and running style of the horse

Some horses are large and natural gallopers with big strides. They are perfectly
suited to the flat, galloping tracks with easy bends.

They are not suited to undulating tracks as they can become unbalanced. Nor are
they suited to sharp tracks with tight bends.

On the other end of the scale are the smaller, well-balanced, nippier horses.

I've divided the UK racecourses into 2 types which will suit each extreme style.

Not all courses are listed below as some are considered fair tracks that don't favour
a particular style.

For example Chepstow is considered a galloping course but it is very undulating and
as such does not particularly suit the big striding horse.

The table below shows details which tracks I consider galloping and which are
sharp.

Galloping, Flat Courses Sharp, Undulating Courses

Ascot Aintree (Mildmay)
Doncaster Bangor

16
Ffos Las Brighton
Haydock Cartmel
Huntingdon Catterick
Newbury Chester
Newcastle Epsom
Nottingham Fakenham
Redcar Folkestone
Salisbury (up to 1m) Fontwell
Sandown Goodwood
Wetherby Kelso
Wincanton Lingfield (Turf)
Worcester Market Rasen
Yarmouth (up to 1m) Newton Abbott
York Perth
Plumpton
Pontefract
Sedgefield
Taunton
Warwick
Wolverhampton

Of course you want your horse to have good form over that specific type of course.

Note For Layers

If I'm laying a horse I want it to be running on a specific type of course for the first
time or have run worse than the market expected on its previous outings in races at
similar courses.

2. Stiffness of the course

Some courses are considered a real test of stamina. These are usually the ones with
a long uphill finish or courses where the ground is very sticky.

The table below shows the courses where stamina is a valuable attribute...

Ascot
Carlisle
Cheltenham
Chepstow
Exeter
Hamilton
Hexham
Leicester

17
Newcastle
Pontefract
Salisbury
Sandown
Sedgefield
Towcester

Note For Layers

If I'm laying a horse I want look for horses that have a poor record on courses
where stamina is key.

This can be especially important if you have already found a horse that is either
stepping up in trip or running on softer ground than it has before.

If it is doing either of those on a tough course then all the better when laying.

3. Stiffness of the fences

The fences at the NH courses also vary wildly. Some are known to be easy whilst
others are renowned as being very tough.

The courses in the table below are those courses where the fences are known to be
very stiff...

Ascot
Chelteham
Chepstow
Doncaster
Hereford
Huntingdon
Musselburgh
Newbury
Newcastle
Wetherby

Once again if my horse is running over stiff fences it must have proven form
running over stiff fences and vice versa when laying.

18
 THE FINAL STEP – ELIMINATING THE OPPOSITION

Once I have found a favourite that has proven form over the four fundamentals I
then take a look at the opposition.

Now I want to keep this process quick so I don't look at the whole field – that would
take far too long.

I'm only interested in looking at the second favourite really.

Sometimes I look at the third favourite as well if it is a short price.

What I basically look for is the second favourite to have a question mark over one of
the four fundamentals.

The best way to show you how it all comes together is to go through a few examples.

So I'll take you through a couple over the next few pages.

These examples are from the previous version of this guide.

But as these form reading principles are timeless I felt there was no need to update
them for this version.

19
 EXAMPLE 1:

At the time of writing Glen Moss is the 5/2F and seems to be fancied by the market.

So that's the horse I'll be concentrating on.

The relevant data for the four fundamentals of this race are:

Going: Good-to-firm
Distance: 7f
Class: 3
Course: Doncaster

So let's see if Glen Moss runs as expected over these four.

Here's Glen Moss' racing history...

20
21
Side Note:

When researching how a horse ran in its last race in relation to its position in the
odds market there's no shortcut I'm afraid.

You have to click on the race in question and then manually work out the horse's
position in the odds market.

With that said let's have a look at Glen Moss' past form over the 4 fundamentals.

1st Fundamental - Going

Glen Moss has raced on good-to-firm ground twice previously.

Here's a breakdown of the results...

11th May 2013

Position in the odds market: Joint 8th with six other horses.
Expected finishing position based on the market: between 8 th and 14th.
Actual finishing position: 12th
Analysis: Ran as expected.

3rd Oct 2011

Position in the odds market: 1st.
Expected finishing position based on the market: 1st.
Actual finishing position: 2nd
Analysis: Ran worse than expected.

The horse ran as expected on one occasion but on the other occasion it was a losing
favourite.

22
It was obviously expected to win, was it the ground that made it under perform?

If so I would want to avoid backing this horse.

In this situation I like to look at the Racing Post's analysis of the race in question.

(To see this simply click on the specific race in the 'Race Outcome' column on the
horse's history page.)

The analysis from that second place on good-to-firm ground was...

I'm looking to see if the Racing Post highlights the ground as a possible reason. But
as you can see above it doesn't seem so.

So these are the only two races the horse has had on good-to-firm, but if we have a
quick look at the horse's racing history again we can see that it has run well on the
two goings most similar to good-to-firm.

On firm ground...

26th May 2013

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position:2nd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

On good ground...

24th July 2011

Position in odds market: 4th.
Expected position based on the market: 4th.
Actual finishing position:2nd.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

So taking all this analysis into account I don't think the ground will be a problem for
the horse and I expect it to run to par.

2nd Fundamental - Distance

Glen Moss has raced over 7f 5 times previously.

Here's a breakdown of the results...

23
1st June 2013
Position in odds market: Joint 7th with two other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 7th and 9th.
Actual finishing position: 4th.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

11th May 2013

Position in odds market: Joint 8th with five other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 8th and 13th.
Actual finishing position: 12th.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

13th April 2013

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

26th May 2012

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

31st March 2012

Position in odds market: 3rd.
Expected position based on the market: 3rd.
Actual finishing position: 1st.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

So Glen Moss has won over 7f before (when not favourite) and seems to run either
as expected or even better so the distance shouldn't be a problem.

3rd Fundamental – Class

Glen Moss has previously raced in one class 3 handicap before.

The result...

26th May 2012

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

The horse has actually been running in class 2 events and is now being dropped in

24
class.

Let's have a quick look at its record in class 2 handicaps...

1st June 2013

Position in odds market: joint 7th with two other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 7th and 9th.
Actual finishing position: 4th.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

11th May 2013

Position in odds market: Joint 8th with five other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 8th and 13th.
Actual finishing position: 12th.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

13th April 2013

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

13th July 2012

Position in odds market: 3rd.
Expected position based on the market: 3rd.
Actual finishing position: 7th.
Analysis: Ran worse than expected.

16th June 2012

Position in odds market: joint 2nd with two other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 2nd and 5th.
Actual finishing position: 3rd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

10th May 2012

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 4th.
Analysis: Ran worse than expected.

24th July 2011

Position in odds market: 4th.
Expected position based on the market: 4th.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

So Glen Moss has been holding it's own in class 2 races and more often than not

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runs as expected or better.

So I fully expect it to run as expected in a class 3 race.

4th Fundamental - Course

Looking at the tables in the course section a few pages back you can see I consider
Doncaster a galloping course so I'd like to see proven form over other galloping
courses.

(Doncaster is not considered a stiff course and the race is not over fences so this is
the only course factor I need to consider.)

Glen Moss has run on galloping courses 6 times previously.

Here's a breakdown of the results...

1st June 2013

Position in odds market: joint 7th with two other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 7th and 9th.
Actual finishing position: 4th.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

11th May 2013

Position in odds market: Joint 8th with five other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 8th and 13th.
Actual finishing position: 12th.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

16th June 2012

Position in odds market: joint 2nd with two other horses.
Expected position based on the market: between 2nd and 5th.
Actual finishing position: 3rd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

26th May 2012

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

3rd Oct 2011

Position in the odds market: 1st.
Expected finishing position based on the market: 1st.
Actual finishing position: 2nd
Analysis: Ran worse than expected.

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24th July 2011
Position in odds market: 4th.
Expected position based on the market: 4th.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

More often than not Glen Moss runs as expected or better on galloping courses, so
another tick here.

A quick analysis of all this information reveals that, in virtually every previous race,
Glen Moss runs as the market expects in each of the fundamental conditions of
today's race.

He shouldn't be hampered by the going, the distance, the class or the course.

But to really cement the selection I like to make sure the biggest danger (usually the
second favourite) has a question mark concerning at least one of the four
fundamentals.

The second favourite at the moment is Creek Falcon.

So let's take a look at his racing history...

At a quick glance you can see it has run over good-to-firm twice.

Once it over performed by finishing first (when 6/1) and once it under performed by
finishing 13th (when favourite).

Two wildly different results there, and I think that is down to the classes it was
racing in (more on that in a moment).

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It has won over 7 furlongs twice (and been a beaten favourite once) so I don't think
the distance will be a problem.

But have a look at the class of race it has run in.

Whilst the favourite has been holding his own on class 2 events, Creek Falcon has
mainly been taking part in class 5 events.

Today's race is a class 3 event and this horse has never raced in such a high class
race before.

It has raced in a couple of class 4 events and finished 13 th when favourite (so a lot
worse than expected) and 4th when 5th in the betting (so slightly better than
expected).

To be honest there's nothing there to show me the horse is ready to compete in class
4 events let alone a class 3 race.

For me the class is a definite black mark against this horse.

Let's look at all the facts...

Glen Moss runs as the market expects over the going, distance, class and course.
His main rival, Creek Falcon, has serious doubts over his ability at this class level.

So I anticipate that Glen Moss will run as the market expects, which means he
should win being that he in the favourite.

He's a solid selection and would be a bet at 5/2.

The result...

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Glen Moss won and it seems will be moved back up in class next time.

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 EXAMPLE 2:

The horse I'm interested here is Money Team as it was the 5/4F at the time of
writing.

The relevant data for the four fundamentals of this race are:

Going: Good-to-firm
Distance: 5f
Class: 6
Course: Catterick

So let's see if Money Team runs as expected over these four.

Let's have a look at its racing history...

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1st Fundamental – Going

Raced on good-to-firm once before.

The result...

24th May 2013

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 1st.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

So the ground should be no problem.

2nd Fundamental – Distance

Raced over 5f twice...

29th June 2013

Position in odds market: Joint 4th with one other horse.
Expected position based on the market: Between 4th and 5th.
Actual finishing position: 5th.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

24th May 2013

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 1st.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

Again no problems here. Clearly handles the distance.

3rd Fundamental – Class

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Today's race is class 6.

Money Team has never run in a class 6 race, its been running in higher classes.

So let's have a look at it's previous runs...

Class 1:

1st June 2013

Position in odds market: 7th.
Expected position based on the market: 7th.
Actual finishing position: 6th.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

Class 4:

29th June 2013

Position in odds market: Joint 4th with one other horse.
Expected position based on the market: Between 4th and 5th.
Actual finishing position: 5th.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

24th May 2013

Position in odds market: 2nd.
Expected position based on the market: 2nd.
Actual finishing position: 1st.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

Class 5:

15th May 2013

Position in odds market: 5th.
Expected position based on the market: 5th.
Actual finishing position: 2nd.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

So the horse has run better than expected in the majority of its races at a higher
level than today's race.

So I can see no reason why it shouldn't run as expected today.

4th Fundamental – Course

If you look at the table in the course section a few pages back Catterick is a sharp
course.

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Money Team has run on sharp course before...

29th June 2013

Position in odds market: Joint 4th with one other horse.
Expected position based on the market: Between 4th and 5th.
Actual finishing position: 5th.
Analysis: Ran as expected.

1st June 2013

Position in odds market: 7th.
Expected position based on the market: 7th.
Actual finishing position: 6th.
Analysis: Ran better than expected.

Money team runs as expected on sharp courses so should do so again here.

Our simple analysis shows that this horse runs as the market expects when today's
conditions are taken into account.

So if the market deems it a short priced favourite I would have no hesitation in

backing it.

But as always I like to have a look at the second favourite before I place my bet.

The second favourite is Black Treacle...

This horse has only raced once before.

It has never raced on good-to-firm ground nor over 5f before nor on a sharp course.

It hasn't raced in a class 6 race before but it came 3rd in a class 5 race.

Is this a good result?

Well looking at that race in more detail Black Treacle was 2nd in the betting and
finished a long way back from the winner.

I'm guessing punters are backing this horse hoping it will have come on for its first
ever run.

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But as I said before I'm more interested in cold hard facts and I think the favourite
has an excellent chance here.

The result...

An easy victory by 5 lengths. The sign of a worthy favourite.

We let the market do the hard work by identifying a short priced favourite. Our job
is just to make sure it will run as expected.

And in this case we picked up an easy winner.

I don't want to pad this guide out with too many examples so I think we'll leave it
there.

I'm sure you get the idea by now.

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 FINAL THOUGHTS

I've hoped you've enjoyed this free guide.

In it I've taught a little form reading trick that I use to pick winning favourites.

I don't recommend trying to go through a whole day's racing.

It will take too long and I doubt you'll have the concentration to make good
decisions.

It pays to specialise when betting on horse racing. In fact I would say if you don't
follow this rule you won't make a decent long term profit.

Your area of focus could be handicaps, or sprints or maybe just class 5 and 6 races.

Be a specialist not a jack-of-all-trades!

When first starting out my advice would be to simply start with the shortest price
horse of the day.

Read the form as described in this guide and decide if it's a worthy back bet or not.

Then simply move onto the next shortest horse.

Keep going until you have a number of bets you feel comfortable with.

This would be my fast start advice so to speak and you should be able to pick some
selections within minutes of reading this manual.

There are lots of different ways to use the information in this guide. I'll let you
decide which one suits you the best.

Note For Layers

If you like laying then what you are looking for is simple...

A favourite that consistently runs worse than the market expects over
one or more of the four fundamentals.

Good luck and I hope you've enjoyed reading.

Kris Jackman
Founder | TipsterSupermarket.com

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