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Pranav Sachi
Final Term Paper
1976
Dis 102
Kirsten Ho
Urban Focused Food Production
Food production has been pivotal to the development of our species for thousands of
years. For most of human history we served as hunter gatherers, relying on wild animals and
foraging plants for food. These early humans adjusted their behavior to the natural environment,
following the movement of wild game, the proliferation of vegetation, and establishing
impermanent shelters. Then about 10,000 years ago, the agricultural revolution (also known as
the Neolithic revolution) sparked a transition from hunter-gatherer societies to the development
of larger, more permanent settlements and cities. It was then, in what is called the Fertile
Crescent, a region of the Middle East, that humans first took up farming, domesticating plants
and animals for food which allowed people to create permanent civilizations for the first time in
history. These early agricultural inventions paved the path for the Bronze and Iron age that
eventually introduced the world to tools for farming, war, and art that has ultimately brought
civilizations together through trade and conquest.
From this brief look back in time, it’s clear that agriculture has shaped our history and
allowed for the evolution of humans. However, over the past couple thousand years as methods
for crop production became less labor intensive and more effective at producing a surplus
beyond the needs of those harvesting the land, fewer and fewer people were needed to fulfill
agricultural responsibilities, freeing up time and people to focus on other tasks. While
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settlements were initially built around agriculture, eventually with the rise of trade and capital
markets, cities and urban development were free to be constructed farther away from these
centers for food production. This disconnect between people and the source of their food has
created a critical problem in today’s society. Without a close relationship with what we’re eating
along with a lack of awareness into what it takes to produce our food, we have become
comfortable with feeding our own appetites without a regard for what effect this may have on
our arable land, the environment, our planet, and even on our own cultural and social behaviors.
According to Jonathan Foley, director of the Institue on the Environment at the
University of Minnesota, today farming is the greatest contributor to global warming. Runoff
from fertilizers, methane from cattle production, the cutting of rainforests to grow crops and
livestock, are just a few examples of ways in which current farming methods are disrupting
fragile ecosystems and water sources while accelerating the loss of biodiversity. These
environmental challenges are only expected to get worse as the world population adds another 2
billion people, almost 9 billion in total, to feed by 2050. In addition, as developing countries like
China and India become more prosperous, demand for foods to meet richer diets will force us to
double crop production by mid-century.
Apart from the demand to raise food production, according to the United Nations, over
68% of the world population is projected to live in urban areas by 2050, with 90% of that growth
happening in countries in Africa and Asia. These trends of urbanization, land degradation, and
population growth indicate that a shift will need to take place in our food system to address all of
these changes sustainably. While some solutions offer methods to increase production on
existing farmland, doing so comes with several indirect consequences. Intensive techniques such
as heavy tilling, running multiple harvests, and the abundant use of chemicals have allowed us to
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increase production a threefold, but has also diminished soil fertility at a rate of 24bn tones per
year, leading to land abandonment and desertification according to Monique Barbut, executive
secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. Strains on the supply chain and
increasing costs for production will raise crop prices, especially those that are imported from
foreign countries. There has also been an increasing labor supply shortage of farmers in rural
areas where younger generations are choosing to pursue higher education and careers off the
farm and in larger urban areas.
Another area of concern is the rising inequality gap within urban areas. People residing in
lower income communities are more common to be cited with unhealthy dietary behaviors.
According to a study published in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and
Physical Activity, these preferences and behaviors are a result of inadequate access to healthy
food options. Certain health-focused retailers are not incentivized to be located in geographic
regions with low average incomes, and on the flip side, members of such communities cannot
afford to purchase these healthier options. The study noted how “focus group participants
identified high cost as the number one factor affecting food choice: ‘ We always look for what’s
more economical.’” In families with limited financial resources, staying within a fixed budget
required making a sacrifice between more healthy foods and less healthy, but calorie dense
foods. While access to universal healthcare has been popular throughout the media and in the
political arena, no one is discussing addressing the root of the problem, the food we put in our
bodies. If everyonw had access to cheap, yet high quality ingredients, the health of lower income
communities would significantly improve, we would lessen the strain on government healthcare
infrastructure, and as a whole our economy would become more productive.
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If the current rate of environmental degradation continues on the same trajectory in
combination with the factors mentioned above, I believe that to protect our food systems and
meet the needs of our growing population, agricultural production will need shift away from
rural areas to metropolitan cities and their surrounding regions.
This concept of the urbanization of food production is not a new idea. There have been
several implementations of this system on smaller scales in projects around the world, and there
are multiple companies working towards supporting the infrastructure behind such a vision.
However, it is my belief that for several reasons, now is the best time to begin the transition
towards shifting food to urban areas.
There are several trends that will offer such a transformation the necessary momentum to
gain both financial and political capital for such an initiative. Over the past two to three years,
consumers have become increasingly aware of the food products they are putting into their
bodie. This is evident from an increasing theme of transparency, organic and sustainably sourced
ingredients, and locally grown food, offered by large food giants. In 2018, an Innova Markets
Insights survey showed that 65% of people answered that they were concerned about sustainably
produced food. That number jumped to 87% in 2019. More recently, climate change has become
a central topic for debate in the media and in political campaigns, with more people accepting the
seriousness of the situation. New technologies like hydroponics, aeroponics, and vertical farming
will make the development of this infrastructure feasible, while keeping them cost effective. In
2018, the industry received almost $17B in funding across 1450 investments according to
AgFunder’s Tech Investing Report. This has been followed by the growth of more late stage
investments by venture capital investors in 2019. The transportation and logistics industry have
also been experiencing significant disruption by technology which will help with setting up the
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distribution network necessary for operating large scale growing facilities near or within city
centers. Currently, limitations to our food chain are being discovered as the coronavirus is
damaging our food system. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
detailed several challenges they have been observing with food production, including blockages
of transport routes for fresh food supply which is increasing levels of food loss and waste,
transport restrictions and quarantine measures have prevented farmers from accessing markets,
reduced their production capacity, and limited their ability to sell produce, fresh food and aquatic
products which are highly perishable pose a risk to consumers if they’re not stored in a relatively
limited time, etc. Moving forward, all of these factors will result in attention from policy makers,
consumers, and private corporations to collaborate and reimagine a food system that can
sustainably be run within a city and its neighboring regions that meets the food demands of its
inhabitants.
Essentially, I envision that large scale production facilities will be set up on the outskirts
of city centers. Warehouses and shopping malls will be converted into massive vertical farming
centers that use a variety of techniques (hydroponics, aeroponics) to replicate natural growing
processes. One company that is working on a solution like this is Plenty, which grows plants on
20ft vertical towers that are fed water and nutrients from the top of the tower. LED lamps are
used to replicate sunlight while thousands of infrared cameras and sensors cover everything to
monitor measurements of temperature, moisture and plant growth. The system can be used to
grow anything except root vegetables and tree fruits. In comparison to conventional agriculture,
Plenty can get as much as 350 times the produce out of a given acre of land using just 1 percent
of water. According to CEO, Matt Bernard, “It is the most efficient [form of agriculture] in terms
of the amount of productive capacity per dollar spent.” The food produced in such facilities
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could be distributed through an autonomous delivery network that runs 24/7 into and out of the
city. Autonomous trucks will offload this produce at fulfillment centers scattered throughout the
city and last mile delivery services will then transport the produce directly to customers or they
can pick up their produce in person. I also anticipate that growing facilities will be integrated
into the urban landscape as it is being done in Singapore or even underground. In Dubai, the
sustainable city project for a smaller housing development is comprised of 11 temperature-
controlled bio domes for the production of leafy greens, herbs, and a selection of vegetables,
about 35 varieties in total. Such a model would prove ideal within suburban communities.
This system will dramatically cut down costs of transportation, cut out large retailers that
serve as middlemen in the food chain, thus enabling a more affordable price point. With multiple
growing facilities for each urban center, agricultural output will far exceed demand and can scale
to serve a growing population and urbanization trends. Through collecting data within these
growing facilities, from the distribution network, and from the market of consumers, we will be
able to determine an equilibrium of supply while adjusting for changes in customer behaviors.
Most importantly however, just how early humans were deeply connected to their farming
activities, such a model will rekindle our relationship with the food that we consume, increase
transparency, and make high quality food ubiquitous for all members of a society regardless of
socioeconomic status. In a sense this will be a transformation back to a subsistence based
agriculture, however, rather than just producing enough for a family, cities can produce just
enough for themselves.
There are several risks and concerns with such a massive undertaking. An effort like this
will require unprecedented coordination between governments, financial institutions,
corporations, and the public. Billions of dollars will need to be invested into building the
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infrastructure for an end to end solution that remains decentralized with no one entity holding
monopolistic control over our food supply. Existing food suppliers will either need to be
integrated or transitioned into the network to end farming on available arable land while ensuring
that their livelihoods are not disrupted.
While such an effort will not be easy, it is evident that the individual pieces required to
build out this radical system are available. The ultimate challenge will be bring all these cogs
together to construct a well-oiled machine that will ultimately wipe out concerns of food
insecurity, reverse the effects of climate change, and pave a path towards the development of a
completely self-sustainable food system that once again can return back to the people and
integrate itself into our urban environment.
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