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 AUSTRALASIAN
BUSINESS STATISTICS
4TH EDITION

BLACK | ASAFU-ADJAYE | BURKE | KHAN | KING

PERERA | PAPADIMOS | SHERWOOD | WASIMI
Fourth edition published 2016 by
John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd
42 McDougall Street, Milton Qld 4064
First edition published 2007
Second edition published 2010
Third edition published 2013
Typeset in Minion Pro 10/12
Australian editions © John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd 2007, 2010, 2013,
2016
Authorised adaptation of Business statistics for contemporary decision
making, 4th edition (ISBN 0-471-42983-X), published by John Wiley &
Sons, Inc., Hoboken, United States of America under exclusive licence
from Leyh Publishing, LLC. Copyright © 2004 in the USA by Leyh
Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved.
The moral rights of the authors have been asserted.
National Library of Australia
Cataloguing-in-Publication entry

Creator: Black, Ken (Kenneth Urban), author.

Title: Australasian business statistics / Ken Black, John Asafu-
Adjaye, Paul Burke, Nazim Khan, Gerard King, Nelson
Perera, Andrew Papadimos, Carl Sherwood, Saleh Wasimi.
Edition: 4th edition.
ISBN: 9780730312932 (paperback)
9780730324836 (e-text)
Notes: Includes index.
Subjects: Commercial statistics — Australasia — Textbooks.
Other Creators/
Contributors: Asafu-Adjaye, John, author.
Burke, Paul, author.
Khan, Nazim, author.
King, Gerard, author.
Perera, Nelson, author.
Papadimos, Andrew, author.
Sherwood, Carl, author.
Wasimi, Saleh A. (Saleh Ahmed), author.
Dewey Number: 519.5

Reproduction and Communication for educational purposes

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the pages of this work or — where this book is divided into chapters — one
chapter, whichever is the greater, to be reproduced and/or communicated
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remuneration notice to Copyright Agency Limited (CAL).
Reproduction and Communication for other purposes
Except as permitted under the Act (for example, a fair dealing for
the purposes of study, research, criticism or review), no part of this
book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated
or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written
permission. All inquiries should be made to the publisher.
Cover and internal design images: © Daniel Fung / Shutterstock.com (top);
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Printplus Ltd
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 CHAPTER 1 Introduction to statistics 1

CHAPTER 2 Charts and graphs 13

CHAPTER 3 Descriptive summary measures 47

CHAPTER 4 Probability 93
Brief contents

CHAPTER 5 Discrete distributions 135

CHAPTER 6 The normal distribution and other continuous distributions 169

CHAPTER 7 Sampling and sampling distributions 193

CHAPTER 8 Statistical inference: estimation for single populations 227

CHAPTER 9 Statistical inference: hypothesis testing for single populations 261

CHAPTER 10 Statistical inferences about two populations 311

CHAPTER 11 Analysis of variance and design of experiments 367

CHAPTER 12 Chi-square tests 409

CHAPTER 13 Simple regression analysis 435

CHAPTER 14 Multiple regression analysis 479

CHAPTER 15 Time-series forecasting and index numbers 513

Brief contents v
 About the authors xi Summary 42
Key features xiii Key terms 43
Real-world issues at a glance xiv Review problems 43
Acknowledgements xv
CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER 1
Descriptive summary measures
Introduction to statistics
Learning objectives 47
Learning objectives 1 Opening vignette: Are you being followed? 48
Opening vignette: The search for information 2 Introduction 48
Introduction 2 Chapter case: Location, location, location! 49
1.1 Basic statistical concepts 3
Contents

3.1 Measures of central tendency 51

1.2 Types of data 4 Mode 51
Categorical data 4 Median 51
Numerical data 5 Mean 53
Cross-sectional and time-series data 5 3.2 Measures of location 56
1.3 Obtaining data 6 Percentiles 57
Obtaining secondary data 6 Quartiles 58
Obtaining primary data 6 3.3 Measures of variability 61
1.4 Statistical analysis using Excel 7 Range 61
Getting started with Excel and KaddStat 7 Interquartile range 61
Excel’s Analysis ToolPak add-in 7 Variance and standard deviation 62
KaddStat 8 Variance 63
Using Excel with this book 9 Standard deviation 64
1.5 When things go wrong 9 Population versus sample variance and
Space shuttle Challenger 9 standard deviation 68
The Sally Clark case 9 Computational formulas for variance and
The 1936 US presidential election 10 standard deviation 69
Summary 10 z-scores 71
Key terms 11 Coefficient of variation 72
Review problems 11 3.4 Measures of shape 74
Skewness 74
CHAPTER 2 Skewness and the relationship of the mean,
median and mode 75
Charts and graphs Coefficient of skewness 75
Kurtosis 76
Learning objectives 13 Box and whisker plots 76
Opening vignette: Red tape 14 3.5 Measures of association 80
Introduction 14 Correlation 80
Chapter case: Electronic games 15 Misuse of statistics 85
2.1 Frequency distributions 16 Chapter case revisited: Location, location, location! 85
Class midpoint 17 Summary 86
Relative frequency 17 Key terms 87
Cumulative frequency 17 Key equations 88
2.2 Graphical display of data 22 Review problems 89
Histograms 22 Maths appendix 91
Frequency polygons 28
Ogives 30 CHAPTER 4
Pie charts 32
Stem and leaf plots 33 Probability
Pareto charts 35
2.3 Graphical display of two-variable Learning objectives 93
continuous data: scatter plots 39 Opening vignette: A conditional workout 94
Chapter case revisited: Electronic games 41 Introduction 95

vi Contents
Chapter case: Too many leaders 96 Using the binomial table 147
4.1 Methods of determining probabilities 97 Mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution 150
Classical method 97 Graphing binomial distributions 152
Relative frequency of occurrence method 98 5.4 Poisson distribution 155
Subjective probability method 99 Solving Poisson problems by formula 156
4.2 Structure of probability 100 Mean and standard deviation of a Poisson distribution 160
Experiment 100 Graphing Poisson distributions 160
Event 100 Poisson approximation of the binomial distribution 161
Elementary events 100 Misuse of statistics 164
Sample space 101 Chapter case revisited: Mental health and young people 165
Set notation, unions and intersections 102 Summary 166
Mutually exclusive events 103 Key terms 166
Independent events 103 Key equations 166
Collectively exhaustive events 104 Review problems 167
Complementary events 104
4.3 Contingency tables and probability matrices 105
Marginal, union, joint and conditional probabilities 106 CHAPTER 6
Probability matrices 107
4.4 Addition laws 109 The normal distribution and other continuous
General law of addition 109 distributions
Exclusive or 112
Complement of a union 113 Learning objectives 169
Special law of addition 114 Opening vignette: Healthy body temperature 170
4.5 Multiplication laws 116 Introduction 170
General law of multiplication 116 Chapter case: Prawn farm continues to grow 171
Special law of multiplication 117 6.1 The normal distribution 172
4.6 Conditional probability 120 History and characteristics of the
Assessing independence 122 normal distribution 172
Tree diagrams 124 6.2 The standardised normal distribution 175
Revising probabilities and Bayes’ rule 126 6.3 Solving normal distribution problems 177
Misuse of statistics 129 Misuse of statistics 181
Chapter case revisited: Too many leaders 129 6.4 The normal distribution approximation to the
Summary 130 binomial distribution 181
Key terms 131 6.5 The uniform distribution 184
Key equations 131 6.6 The exponential distribution 186
Review problems 132 Probabilities for the exponential distribution 187
Chapter case revisited: Prawn farm continues to grow 189
CHAPTER 5 Summary 190
Key terms 190
Discrete distributions Key equations 190
Review problems 191
Learning objectives 135
Opening vignette: Binge drinking 136
Introduction 136 CHAPTER 7
Chapter case: Mental health and young people 137
5.1 Discrete versus continuous distributions 137 Sampling and sampling distributions
5.2 Describing a discrete distribution 138
Mean, variance and standard deviation of discrete Learning objectives 193
distributions 139 Opening vignette: Detecting accounting fraud 194
Mean or expected value 140 Introduction 194
Variance and standard deviation of a discrete Chapter case: Prawn farm success tied to strict quality control 195
distribution 140 7.1 Sampling 196
5.3 Binomial distribution 143 Reasons for sampling 196
Assumptions about the binomial distribution 143 Reasons for taking a census 197
Solving a binomial problem 144 Sampling frame 197

Contents vii
7.2 Random versus nonrandom sampling 198 Misuse of statistics 256
Random sampling techniques 198 Chapter case revisited: Prawn farm up for sale 256
Simple random sampling 198 Summary 257
Stratified random sampling 201 Key terms 258
Systematic sampling 202 Key equations 258
Cluster (or area) sampling 203 Review problems 259
Nonrandom sampling 204
Convenience sampling 204
Judgement sampling 204 CHAPTER 9
Quota sampling 205
Snowball sampling 205 Statistical inference: hypothesis testing for
7.3 Types of errors from collecting sample data 205 single populations
Sampling error 205
Nonsampling errors 206 Learning objectives 261
7.4 Sampling distribution of the sample mean, x 207
Opening vignette: Australian childcare — enough to
make you cry? 262
Central limit theorem 211
Introduction 262
Sampling from a finite population 215
Chapter case: Prawn farm expects a bright future 263
7.5 Sampling distribution of the sample
9.1 Hypothesis-testing fundamentals 263
proportion, p̂ p 218
Misuse of statistics 220 Rejection and nonrejection regions 266
Chapter case revisited: Prawn farm success tied to strict quality Type I and Type II errors 269
control 221 Type I error 269
Summary 222 Type II error 270
Key terms 223 How are alpha and beta related? 271
Key equations 223 9.2 The six-step approach to hypothesis testing 272
Review problems 224 step 1. Set up H0 and Ha 272

step 2. Decide on the type and direction of the test 273

step 3. Decide on the level of significance (α ), determine

CHAPTER 8 the critical value(s) and region(s), and draw a
diagram 273
Statistical inference: estimation for single step 4. Write down the decision rule 273

populations step 5. Select a random sample and do relevant

calculations 273
Learning objectives 227 step 6. Draw a conclusion 273

Opening vignette: Rural obesity in Queensland on the rise 228 Misuse of statistics 273
Introduction 228 9.3 Hypothesis tests for a population mean: large
Chapter case: Prawn farm up for sale 228 sample case (z statistic, σ known) 274
8.1 Estimating the population mean using the step 1. Set up H0 and Ha 274

z statistic (σ known) 229 step 2. Decide on the type and direction of the test 275

Finite population correction factor 235 step 3. Decide on the level of significance (α ), determine the

Estimating the population mean using the z statistic when critical value(s) and region(s), and draw a diagram 275
the sample size is small 236 step 4. Write down the decision rule 275

8.2 Estimating the population mean using the step 5. Select a random sample and do relevant
t statistic (σ unknown) 238 calculations 275
The t distribution 238 step 6. Draw a conclusion 275

Robustness 239 Testing the mean with a finite population 276

Characteristics of the t distribution 239 The critical value method 276
Reading the t distribution table 240 The p-value method 278
Confidence intervals to estimate the population mean using 9.4 Hypothesis tests about a population mean: small
the t statistic 241 sample case (t statistic, σ unknown) 282
8.3 Estimating the population proportion 245 9.5 Testing hypotheses about a proportion 288
8.4 Estimating the population variance 248 9.6 Testing hypotheses about a variance 292
8.5 Estimating sample size 252 9.7 Solving for Type II errors 296
Sample size when estimating µ 252 Some observations about Type II errors 301
Determining sample size when estimating p 254 Operating characteristic and power curves 301

viii Contents
 Effect of increasing sample size on the Chapter case: Cyberbullying amongst Australian
rejection limits 302 adolescents 369
Chapter case revisited: Prawn farm expects a bright 11.1 Introduction to design of experiments 370
future 304 11.2 The completely randomised design (one-way
Summary 306 ANOVA) 372
Key terms 307 Reading the F distribution table 376
Key equations 307 11.3 Multiple comparison tests 380
Review problems 308 Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test: the case
of equal sample sizes 380
Tukey–Kramer procedure: the case of unequal
CHAPTER 10
sample sizes 383
11.4 The randomised block design 385
Statistical inferences about two populations
11.5 A factorial design (two-way ANOVA) 390

Learning objectives 311 Advantages of the factorial design 391

Opening vignette: Saving for retirement 312 Factorial designs with two treatments 391
Introduction 313 Statistically testing a factorial design 392
Chapter case: Life insurance premiums 314 Interaction 392
10.1 Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals for Misuse of statistics 400
the difference between two means (z statistic, Chapter case revisited: Cyberbullying amongst Australian
population variances known) 315 adolescents 401
Hypothesis testing 316 Summary 401
Confidence intervals 322 Key terms 402
10.2 Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals for Key equations 402
the difference between two means (t statistic, Review problems 403
population variances unknown) 326 Maths appendix 406
Hypothesis testing 326
Confidence intervals 333
CHAPTER 12
10.3 Statistical inferences about two populations with
paired observations 337
Hypothesis testing 337
Chi-square tests
Confidence intervals 343
Learning objectives 409
10.4 Statistical inferences about two population
Opening vignette: Social media is now crucial for business 410
proportions 347
Introduction 410
Hypothesis testing 347
Chapter case: Job security at Combaro Ltd 411
Confidence intervals 351
12.1 Chi-square goodness-of-fit test 412
10.5 Statistical inferences about two population
12.2 Contingency analysis: chi-square test of
variances 353
independence 423
Hypothesis testing 354
Misuse of statistics 428
Confidence intervals 359
Chapter case revisited: Job security at Combaro Ltd 429
Misuse of statistics 361
Summary 430
Chapter case revisited: Life insurance 361
Key terms 431
Summary 362
Key equations 431
Key terms 362
Review problems 431
Key equations 362
Review problems 364
Maths appendix 366 CHAPTER 13

CHAPTER 11 Simple regression analysis

Analysis of variance and design of experiments Learning objectives 435
Opening vignette: Teenage smoking in pregnancy
Learning objectives 367 and birth weight 436
Opening vignette: Australian teens and luxury Introduction 436
brands 368 Chapter case: Predicting the selling price of houses in the
Introduction 368 city of Baycoast 437

Contents ix
13.1 Introduction to simple regression analysis 437 Summary 507
13.2 Determining the equation of the regression Key terms 507
line 440 Key equations 508
13.3 Residual analysis 449 Review problems 508
Using residuals to test the assumptions of the regression
model 452
CHAPTER 15
13.4 Standard error of the estimate 455
13.5 Coefficient of determination 459
Time-series forecasting and index numbers
Relationship between r and r  2 462
13.6 Hypothesis tests for the slope of the regression Learning objectives 513
model and testing the overall model 462
Opening vignette: The power of tourism 514
Testing the slope 462
Introduction 515
13.7 Estimation and prediction 466
Chapter case: Forecasting at Combaro Ltd 516
Confidence (prediction) intervals to estimate the conditional
15.1 Components of a time series 518
mean of y : µy/x 466
Trend component 518
Prediction intervals to estimate a single value of y 467 Seasonal component 518
13.8 Interpreting the output 472 Cyclical component 519
Misuse of statistics 472 Irregular (or random) component 519
Chapter case revisited: Predicting the selling price of houses 15.2 Time-series smoothing methods 520
in the city of Baycoast 472
The moving average method 520
Summary 473
The exponential smoothing method 523
Key terms 474
Seasonal indices 525
Key equations 475
Deseasonalising time series 528
Review problems 476
15.3 Least squares trend-based forecasting
models 532
CHAPTER 14 The linear trend model 532
The quadratic trend model 535
Multiple regression analysis The exponential trend model 537
15.4 Autoregressive trend-based forecasting
Learning objectives 479 models 539
Opening vignette: Video gaming and gambling in Testing for autocorrelation 540
Australian adolescents 480 Ways to overcome the autocorrelation
Introduction 480 problem 543
Chapter case: Predicting the prices of houses in Baycoast: Addition of independent variables 543
using additional variables 481 Transforming variables 543
14.1 The multiple regression model 481 15.5 Evaluating alternative forecasting models 547
Multiple regression model with two independent variables 15.6 Index numbers 550
(first-order) 482
Simple price index 550
Determining the multiple regression equation 483
Aggregate price indices 551
14.2 Significance tests of the regression model and its
Unweighted aggregate price index 551
coefficients 488
Weighted aggregate price index 552
Testing the overall model 488
Changing the base period 556
Significance tests of the regression coefficients 490
Applications of price indices 557
14.3 Residuals, standard error of the
estimate and R 2 493 Misuse of statistics 559
Residuals 493 Chapter case revisited: Forecasting at Combaro Ltd 559
SSE and standard error of the estimate 497 Summary 562
Coefficient of multiple determination (R2) 499 Key terms 563
Adjusted R2 500 Key equations 563
14.4 Interpreting multiple regression Review problems 564
computer output 501
A re-examination of the multiple regression output 501 Appendix: Tables 569
Misuse of statistics 504 Sources 605
Chapter case revisited: Predicting the selling price of houses in the Glossary 609
city of Baycoast: using additional variables 505 Index 615

x Contents
 Ken Black is Professor of Decision Sciences in the School of Business and Public Administration
at the University of Houston–Clear Lake. He earned a Bachelor of Arts in mathematics from
Graceland College; a Master of Arts in mathematics education from the University of Texas at El
Paso; a Doctor of Philosophy in business administration in management science; and a Doctor of
Philosophy in educational research from the University of North Texas.
About the authors
Ken has taught all levels of statistics courses: forecasting, management science, market research
and production/operations management. He has published 20 journal articles, over 20 professional
papers and two textbooks: Business statistics: an introductory course and Business statistics: for con-
temporary decision making. Ken has consulted for many different companies, including Aetna,
the City of Houston, NYLCare, AT&T, Johnson Space Centre, Southwest Information Resources,
Connect Corporation and Eagle Engineering.
John Asafu-Adjaye is an Associate Professor in the School of Economics at the University of
Queensland (UQ). He obtained a Bachelor of Science (Honours) in agricultural economics from
the University of Ghana and then earned a Master of Science in operations research from the Aston
Business School, UK. He completed a Doctor of Philosophy in natural resource economics at the
University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
At UQ John teaches business and economic statistics at both the undergraduate and post-
graduate levels. His research activities include policy analysis of economic and environmental
issues in Africa and the Asia–Pacific region. John is the author or co-author of over 80 research-
based publications, including 7 books and monographs, 5 book chapters, 63 peer-reviewed journal
articles and 11 commissioned reports.
Paul Burke is a Research Fellow in the School of Marketing and Centre for the Study of Choice
(CenSoC) at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS). He obtained a Bachelor of Economics
(First Class Honours in Marketing) from the University of Sydney. He holds a Doctor of Phil­
osophy and Graduate Certificate in Higher Education Teaching & Learning from UTS. Paul has
won teaching awards for his work in business statistics and large class teaching from UTS as well as
national recognition with citations from the Carrick Institute and the Australian Learning Teaching
Council. He has published in many international journals including Research Policy, Educational
Researcher, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Journal of Operations Management and
Journal of Product Innovation Management. His research interests are in choice modelling, experi-
mental design and consumer behaviour applied in the fields of education, ethical consumerism
and innovation. He has been chief investigator on many large-scale grants including Discovery and
Linkage grants from the Australian Research Council (ARC), working with many international
companies and organisations.
Nazim Khan is a Lecturer and Consultant in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the
University of Western Australia. He earned a Bachelor of Engineering in electrical engineering
from the University of Western Australia, a Technical Teachers Certificate from the Fiji Institute of
Teaching, and a Bachelor of Science (Honours) in mathematics and a Doctor of Philosophy from
the University of Western Australia.
Nazim has taught decision theory at the MBA level, financial mathematics, forecasting and stat-
istics. Nazim is an active researcher in statistics and applications. He has also presented several
papers and published several articles in mathematics and statistics education. Nazim has consulted
for various companies and research groups in his capacity as Consultant with the UWA Statistical
Consulting Group.
Andrew Papadimos is a Lecturer in international business, statistics and economics on the
Brisbane campus of Australian Catholic University. His main research interests are the Chinese
economy and International Business in the Asia–Pacific region. Apart from a PhD in Interna-
tional Relations and Economics, Andrew also has a Masters in Applied Law from the University

About the authors xi

 of Queensland, and a Graduate Certificate in Higher Education from ACU. Andrew has lived and
worked for many years in Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China, and is fluent in speaking and
reading Mandarin Chinese. He has also had a great deal of real-world experience with international
business, having acted as a consultant on the Chinese economic and legal climate for international
corporations conducting business with China.
Carl Sherwood is a Lecturer in the School of Economics at the University of Queensland. He
obtained a Bachelor of Engineering (Civil), Master of Business Administration (MBA) and a Grad-
uate Certificate in Higher Education from the University of Queensland. With twenty years of
professional experience as an engineer, Carl has crafted his teaching by capturing this wealth of
business experience to make courses relevant to students.
Carl has been teaching a variety of subjects at the University of Queensland for more than a
decade. He has primarily concentrated on teaching statistics, at both the undergraduate and post-
graduate level, as well as teaching business economics to managers studying at MBA level. As a
result of his teaching efforts, Carl has won the University of Queensland School of Economics
Teaching Excellence Award on four occasions, a University of Queensland Citation for Outstanding
Contributions to Student Learning and a National Teaching Citation for Outstanding Contribu-
tions to Student Learning. One of Carl’s areas of research centres on exploring how statistics can be
made more meaningful, practical and engaging for students.
Saleh A Wasimi is an Associate Professor at Central Queensland University, Melbourne,
Australia. He earned his Doctor of Philosophy degree from the University of Iowa, US, and his
Masters and Bachelor degrees in water resources engineering from Bangladesh University of
Engineering & Technology, Dhaka. He has worked in Bangladesh, the US and Australia as an aca-
demic and has conducted research and consultancy works in those countries as well as in Italy,
Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. Saleh’s current research interests include stochastic processes,
optimisation, water resources planning and development, disaster management, hydrology, and
hydraulics. He has authored in excess of 50 refereed articles and won awards for his publications.

xii About the authors

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 Opening vignettes are concise case studies showing students the relevance of statistics and how
data are used in business and the world they live in.
Chapter cases are brief business-world issues that introduce students to scenarios that use the
techniques covered in the chapter to make a business decision. These are based on all-new data sets
with a greater focus on cross-sectional data. At the end of each chapter, the chapter case
revisited uses the techniques and concepts from the chapter to help make the business decision and
reinforce the information presented in the text.
Excel-based data analysis is integrated throughout each chapter. Most businesses have access
Key features

to Microsoft Excel and, accordingly, this text focuses on analysing data using Excel with the
techniques learned in each chapter.
Misuse of statistics helps students avoid the pitfalls of using statistics incorrectly in business
scenarios by highlighting their potential misuse in easy-to-understand terms.
Problems are included at the end of every section of the text. They usually follow demonstration
problems and reinforce the concept learned in that section.
Going further with KaddStat is an online guide with stepped instructions to perform
the textbook demonstration problems using enhanced KaddStat Excel functionality. Going further
with KaddStat can be downloaded for free from the student website, www.johnwiley.com.au/
highered/black4e/kaddstat.

Key features xiii

 Chapter Opening vignette Chapter case

1 Introduction to statistics The search for information

Real-world issues

2 Charts and graphs Red tape Electronic games

3 Descriptive summary measures Are you being followed? Location, location, location!

4 Probability A conditional workout Too many leaders

at a glance

5 Discrete distributions Binge drinking Mental health and young

people

6 The normal distribution and Healthy body temperature Prawn farm continues to
other continuous distributions grow

7 Sampling and sampling Detecting accounting fraud Prawn farm success tied to
distributions strict quality control

8 Statistical inference: Rural obesity in Prawn farm up for sale

estimation for single Queensland on the rise
populations

9 Statistical inference: Australian childcare — Prawn farm expects a bright

hypothesis testing for single enough to make you cry? future
populations

10 Statistical inferences about Saving for retirement Life insurance premiums

two populations

11 Analysis of variance and Australian teens and luxury Cyberbullying amongst

design of experiments brands Australian adolescents

12 Chi-square tests Social media is now crucial Job security at Combaro

for business Ltd

13 Simple regression analysis Teenage smoking in Predicting the selling price

pregnancy and birth weight of houses in the city of
Baycoast

14 Multiple regression analysis Video gaming and Predicting the prices of

gambling in Australian houses in Baycoast: using
adolescents additional variables

15 Time-series forecasting and The power of tourism Forecasting at Combaro Ltd

index numbers

xiv Real-world issues at a glance

 The authors and publisher would like to thank the following copyright holders, organisations and
individuals for their permission to reproduce copyright material in Australasian Business Statistics,
4th edition.
Acknowledgements Images
• Google: 2 © Google. • Shutterstock: 14 © filmfoto; 15 (top) © auremar; 48 © Twin Design; 49
© bikeriderlondon; 94, 436 © Syda Productions; 96, 228 (top) © Monkey Business Images; 136
© Piotr Marcinski; 137 © luxorphoto; 170 © AVAVA; 194 © Andrey_Popov; 195 © Dream79;
262 (top) © Goran Bogicevic; 262 (bottom) © Mati Nitibhon; 312 © Jerry Sliwowski; 314
© Rawpixel; 368 © william casey; 369 © SpeedKingz; 410 © Ttatty; 411 © Kzenon; 437 © Ekaterina
Kamenetsky; 480 © Photosani; 481 © Yulia von Eisenstein; 514 © zhu difeng; 516 © gemphoto.
• Interactive Games & Entertainment Association: 15 (bottom), 42 © iGEA 2014. • Alamy: 171
© PhotoStock-Israel. • Picture Media: 228 (bottom) © REUTERS/Andrea Hopkins/Picture Media.

Text
• Oxford University Press: 601–4 © Durbin, J & Watson, GS 1951, ‘Testing for serial correlation in
least squares regression II’, Biometrika, vol. 38, pp. 159–78.

Every effort has been made to trace the ownership of copyright material. Information that will
enable the publisher to rectify any error or omission in subsequent editions will be welcome. In
such cases, please contact the Permissions Section of John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

John Wiley & Sons, Australia: Terry Burkitt (Publishing Manager), Kylie Challenor (Managing
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(Graphic Designer), Jo Hawthorne (Senior Production Controller), Rebecca Cam (Digital Content
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Acknowledgements xv
 1
CHAPTER

Introduction to
statistics
LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After studying this chapter, you should be able to:

1 define some basic statistical concepts

2 classify data by type and explain why doing so is important

3 describe some common sources of data used in business statistics

4 outline the appropriate use of computers in statistical analysis

5 discuss some examples of the potential consequences of incorrect data analysis.

OPENING VIGNETTE
The search for information

Every day hundreds of millions of people use Google to search for information on the internet.
The number of searches per year has been growing exponentially since Google was founded
in 1998, and reached a total of 2.2 trillion searches in 2013, or almost 6 billion searches per
day. In 1999 it took Google a month to build an index of 50 million pages. Now this task takes
less than a minute. Currently Google has 68% of total web search volume. Its nearest rival is
Baidu with 19.1%. Google’s revenue has grown from $0.5 billion in the first quarter of 2008 to
almost $16 billion in the second quarter of 2014.
• What algorithms are used to provide fast searches and data retrieval?
• How are algorithms measured for search quality?
• How does Google optimise advertisement quality?
Answering all of these questions depends on statistical analysis of data. Such analysis is
essential for Google to maintain its market dominance and revenue.
It will come as no surprise to learn that Google employs many statisticians. Some are
specialists, but many have dual qualifications. Most of them work in the advertising division
(‘Ads’) or the search engine division (‘Search’). In the advertising division, quantitative analysts
design tools and processes to measure the effectiveness of Google’s advertising service and
in turn to improve those services. In the search division, statisticians analyse the quality of the
results returned by Google’s search engine. That information then feeds back to the software
engineers to improve the search engine.
With perhaps the biggest collection of data in the world, Google requires its statisticians to
work with multi-disciplinary teams to solve a wide range of business problems.

Introduction
Every minute of the working day, businesses around the world make decisions that determine
whether they will profit and grow or whether they will stagnate and die. Most of these decisions are
made with the assistance of information about the marketplace, economic and financial environ-
ments, workforce, competition and other factors. Such information usually comes in the form of
data. Business statistics provides the tools through which data are collected, analysed, summarised,
interpreted and presented to facilitate the decision-making process. Thus, business statistics plays
an important role in decision making within the dynamic world of business.
In this text, we first introduce basic statistical concepts. We then discuss how to organise and
present data so they are meaningful and useful to decision makers. We will learn techniques for

2 Australasian Business Statistics

 sampling (from a population) that allow studies of the business world to be conducted promptly
at lower cost. We will explore various ways to forecast future values and examine techniques for
determining trends. This text also includes many statistical tools for testing hypotheses and for
estimating population parameters. These and many other useful statistical techniques await us on
this journey through business statistics. Let us begin.

1.1 Basic statistical concepts

In this section some basic concepts will be discussed so that statistical problems can be put into
context. These concepts will be covered in detail in later chapters.
Two important concepts in statistics are population and sample. A population is a collection of
objects (often called units or subjects) of interest. Examples of populations include:
1. all small businesses
2. all workers currently employed by BHP Billiton
3. all dishwashers produced by Fisher & Paykel in Auckland in the past 12 months.
A population (and unit) can be very widely defined, such as ‘all cars’, or narrowly defined such as
‘all red Toyota Corolla hatchbacks produced in 2015’.
Collection of data on a whole population is called a census. A sample is a subset of the units in
a population. If selected using the principles of sampling, a sample can be expected to be represen-
tative of the whole population. Sampling has several advantages over a census. In particular, sam-
pling is simpler and cheaper. Further, some forms of data collection are destructive. For example,
crash test statistics for a particular model of car are obtained by destroying the car. This makes it
impossible to collect crash data on all cars, so sampling is the only option.
There are two steps in analysing data from a sample: exploratory data analysis and statistical
inference. These are related and both should be performed for any given data. Exploratory data
analysis, or EDA, is the first step, in which numerical, tabular and graphical summaries (such as
frequency tables, means, standard deviations and histograms) of data are produced to summarise
and highlight the key aspects or any special features of the data. Often, such analysis is sufficient
for the purpose of the study. However, more often this is a precursor to more formal and extensive
analysis of the data.
Statistical inference uses sample data to reach conclusions about the population from which the
sample was drawn. This is usually the main aim of any statistical exercise and involves more formal
data analysis techniques. An inference is a conclusion that patterns observed in the data (sample)
are present in the wider population from which the data were collected. A statistical inference is
an inference based on a probability model linking the data to the population. Clearly such conclu-
sions assume that the sample data are representative of the population; appropriate data collection
is vital for such assumptions to hold true.
As an example, in pharmaceutical research, tests must be limited to a small sample of patients
since new drugs are expensive to produce. Researchers design experiments with small, represen-
tative samples of patients and draw conclusions about the whole population using techniques of
statistical inference.
Note that no inference is required for census data, since a census collects data on the whole
population. In this case, EDA is all that is possible. Any inference will be based on simple com­
parisons of numerical and graphical summaries with a previous census.
A descriptive measure of the population is called a parameter. Parameters are usually denoted by
Greek letters. Examples of parameters are population mean ( µ ), population standard deviation (σ )
and population variance (σ 2). A descriptive measure of a sample is called a statistic. Statistics are
usually denoted by Roman letters. Examples of statistics are sample mean (x ), sample standard
deviation (s) and sample variance (s2).

Chapter 1 Introduction to statistics 3

 Distinction between the terms parameter and statistic is important. A business researcher often
wants to estimate the value of a parameter or draw inferences about the parameter. However, the
calculation of parameters is usually either impossible or infeasible because of the amount of time
and money required to conduct a census. In such cases, the business researcher can take a represen­
tative sample of the population and use the corresponding sample statistic to estimate the popu-
lation parameter. Thus, the sample mean, x, is used to estimate the population mean, µ . The basis
for inferential statistics, then, is the ability to make decisions about parameters without having to
complete a census of the population.
For example, Fisher & Paykel may want to determine the average number of loads that its 8 kg
LCD washing machines can wash before needing repairs. The population here is all the 8 kg LCD
washing machines, and the parameter is the population mean: that is, the average number of washes
per machine before repair. A company statistician takes a representative sample of these machines,
conducts trials on this sample, recording the number of washes before repair for each machine, and
then computes the sample average number of washes before repair. The (population) mean number
of washes for this type of washing machine is then estimated from this sample mean.
Inferences about parameters are made under uncertainty. Unless parameters are computed
directly from a census, the statistician never knows with certainty whether the estimates or infer-
ences made from samples are true. In an effort to estimate the level of confidence in the result of the
process, statisticians use probability statements. Therefore, part of this text is devoted to probability.

1.2 Types of data

Most available data are numerical. Before we analyse data we need to know what the numbers rep-
resent. For example, the data could be the dollar cost of items produced, the geographical location
of retail outlets, weights of shipments or rankings of sales staff. These data are of different types and
cannot be analysed the same way. Which exploratory techniques and which inferential methods we
use are largely determined by the type of data. Data can be broadly classified as qualitative (also
known as categorical) or quantitative (also known as numerical). Categorical data can be further
subclassified as nominal or ordinal, and numerical data can be subclassified as discrete or con-
tinuous. Figure 1.1 shows this pictorially.

Data

Qualitative/Categorical Quantitative/Numerical

FIGURE 1.1
Types of data Nominal Ordinal Discrete Continuous

Categorical data
A data type that is simply an identifier or label and has no numerical meaning is categorical data.
Indeed, such data are often not numbers. For example, the employment of a person (teacher, doctor,
lawyer, engineer, business executive, other) is a categorical data type. As another example, the grade

4 Australasian Business Statistics

 in a test (A, B, C, D, E, F) is again simply a label and is a categorical data type. Notice that the two
examples are slightly different, in that employment of a person cannot be ranked in any meaningful
way, but the test grades have a natural ordering. Thus, the first example is a nominal data type,
while the second is an ordinal data type.

Numerical data
Numerical data have a natural order and the numbers represent some quantity. Two examples are
the number of heads in ten tosses of a coin and the weights of rugby players. Note that in the first
example we know in advance exactly which values the data may take, namely 0, 1, .  .  .  , 10, whereas
in the second example all we can give is perhaps a range (say, 80–140 kg). The first example is that
of a discrete data type, where we can list the possible values. The second example is that of a con-
tinuous data type, where we can give only a range of possible values for the data. Discrete data often
arise from counting processes, while continuous data arise from measurements.
Some data that may be considered to be discrete are often taken as continuous for the purposes
of analysis. For example, a person’s salary is discrete (that is, in dollars and cents), but because the
range of the data is large and often the number of observations is also large, such data are con-
sidered to be continuous.

D E M O N S T R AT I O N P R O B L E M : Shoppers in a city are surveyed by the chamber of commerce. Some of the

P R O B L E M 1. 1 questions in the survey are listed below. What type of data will result from each of the
following questions?
1. What is your age (in years)? _____
2. Which mode of transport did you use to travel to the city today?
Public    Private
3. How far did you travel to the city today (in kilometres)? ______
4. How much did you spend in the city today? _____
5. What did you spend most of your money on today? (choose one)
Clothes   Shoes   Food   Electronic goods   Services   Other
6. How satisfied are you with your shopping experience in the city? (circle one)
Very satisfied   Satisfied   Neutral   Unsatisfied   Very unsatisfied
S O L U T I O N : Question 1 is age in years, so it is a discrete variable. However, for the purpose
of analysis age, like salary, is often regarded as continuous.
In question 2, the shopper is asked to categorise the type of transport they used. The
responses to this question cannot be ranked or ordered in any meaningful way. Therefore the
mode of transport data are categorical, nominal.
Questions 3 and 4 involve measurement and so provide continuous data.
Question 5 results in categorical, nominal data. The data cannot be ranked or ordered.
Question 6 provides categorical ordinal data, as the responses can be ranked or ordered in a
sensible and natural way.

Cross-sectional and time-series data

Data that are collected at a fixed point in time are called cross-sectional data. Such data give a
snapshot of the measured variables at that point in time. For example, Roy Morgan Research con-
ducts and publishes monthly surveys of consumer confidence. The monthly survey provides infor-
mation on consumer confidence for the given month.
Often data are collected over time. Such data are called time-series data. For example, data that
consist of consumer confidence over several months or years are time-series data. Note that, unlike
cross-sectional data, time-series data are time dependent. Such dependence needs to be appropri-
ately modelled and accounted for in the data analysis.

Chapter 1 Introduction to statistics 5

Other documents randomly have
different content
his shoulder, and a cap pushed back from his forehead, was
pelting along the road at a rapid rate.

"Things are awful for most of us," Jockie said, looking at

him gloomily, "but your people are all right. Do they know
you're coming? They hadn't an idea of it yesterday."

"My boat arrived a day earlier than expected, so I

thought I'd walk up and take them unawares. Left my
baggage at the station. I've had a stunning time. Now, just
turn back with me, and tell me the 'awful things,' as you
call them."

"I don't know where to begin. How much do you know?"

"I heard of the wedding," said Austin, taking off his cap
and letting the spring breeze fan his heated brow.

"I do wish with all my heart that it had been your

wedding," said Jockie viciously. "I wish with all my heart I
had never tried to do you a good turn. I don't know what
possessed me to do it. It was only to spite her. I have
brought disaster to everyone."

"What the d—dickens have you to do with it?" asked

Austin.

Jockie told him of the episode outside the post office.

"She came back from her honeymoon determined to

slight and insult the Admiral and Sidney all she could. Oh, I
can't tell it all to you; it would take too long. She began to
be mistress before she married, so you can imagine what it
was like afterwards. She has always hated Sidney, and she
couldn't forgive the Admiral for not being smitten by her
charms, and falling down and worshipping her, as all the
rest of you did."
 "But," interrupted Austin, "the Admiral isn't it a fool.
Surely he can be master in his own house?"

"No, the Admiral isn't a fool," said Jockie solemnly, "he

is now a saint in heaven."

Austin stopped still in the middle of the road. "You don't

mean to tell me that the dear old chap is dead?"

"She killed him—murdered him—just as surely as if she

had shot him. Do let me tell the story in my own way. I
hardly know the ins and outs of it, but it seems that the
house really belongs to Major Urquhart—at least, she gives
out that it does, and your mother told me that the Admiral
would not fight his brother about it, but that it was morally,
if not legally, his. Mrs. Ted has turned Sidney out of her
place at the head of the table. She took the reins of the
whole house in her own hands; she moved and changed
everything in it on purpose to annoy them. She took the
Admiral's books and pictures away from his study, and said
they belonged to the Major, and she furnished a new
smoking-room with all his treasured things. The Admiral
and Sidney at last, in despair, went up to London. They
were driven out of the house by her. When they came back
she was worse than ever. She had cut down all the
Admiral's favourite trees, and in spite of the Major's
protests, got some labourers to come up and clear away the
guns from the lawn. That was the last straw! The poor old
Admiral went out the morning after he came home, and
found them half buried in an old rubbish ditch. It broke his
heart, and he was found dead, clasping his arms round one
of them. Now, what do you call that but murder?"

Austin drew in a long breath of dismay.

 "Gracious, child, go more slowly! I can't quite believe
that Mrs. Norman would act so."

"Mrs. Edward Urquhart, please. And you need not

address me as 'child.' I shall shut up if you do."

"Beg pardon. Go ahead."

"Well, of course, dear Sidney has behaved like an angel.

We wanted her to leave the house at once, but she would
stay on until the lawyer and she had sorted out all her
father's papers and put the business straight. What she's
gone through no one knows! She's a marvel to all of us. I
have heard Mrs. Ted stinging at her like a gnat, and Sidney
speaks to her in the most gracious and sweet way, but in a
lovely remote tone, as if she hardly knows who she is, and
she lives in another world just now. She looks lovelier than
ever in her black, but so frail and delicate. And then
sometimes she puts her hand on my arm and laughs in her
old fascinating way, and then the dreamy sad veil falls over
her eyes again. Miss Pembroke wants to have her, and your
mother wants to have her, but neither has got her yet.
Sometimes I think she stays on for the Major's sake. He's
awfully unhappy—I can see it in his eyes; he's a broken-
down old man since the Admiral's death, and his wife does
nothing but whip him on, as if he were a tired old horse.
Oh, she's an awful woman! If only you had married her!"

"Thank you," said Austin stiffly; then he added: "How

women hate one another! I can hardly recognise Mrs.
Norman under your description. I never heard her say an
unkind word to anyone."

"Oh, if you're going to believe in her still, I'll stop.

There's such a thing as poison coated with sugar. But you'll
never see her in her true colours. Men are as blind as bats
where women are concerned."

Jockie gave her head a little toss and walked on.

Austin looked at her. If he had not been so perturbed,

he would have laughed, as Jockie on her dignity was like
some saucy sparrow aping a swan.

"Poor dear old Sid!" he murmured. "I didn't think she

was having such a bad time! She was quite swallowed up in
her father. I can't believe I shall never see him again."

"No," said Jockie in a grandmotherly tone, "we never

know how soon old people will be taken from us. I hope
you're going to be very good to your father now you have
come back. He has missed you frightfully. If I had been a
man, I should have had enough grit to stop at home where
I was wanted, instead of running away from my trouble."

"You seem to have a remarkable knowledge of our

private affairs," said Austin witheringly.

"Yes; I know them all," said Jockie cheerfully. "I have

been trying to be your substitute, since you have been
away. Your father and I talk over lots of things together, and
I went round with your horrid agent the other day to see a
farmhouse which wants repairing. I reported it to your
father the next day, and I told him what a sneak and bully
the agent was. I've heard some stories about him in the
village, and Cousin John and I can prove the truth of them.
Mr. de Cressiers is almost willing to dismiss him now he
takes in what kind of a man he is."

"I think it is high time I was back," said Austin loftily.

"It is," assented Jockie.

 The two young people walked on for a minute in silence,
then Jockie burst forth again:

"It's no good for you to defend her! She's a clever

unscrupulous woman, and Sidney can't cope with her. What
do you think she is saying to everyone now? She pulls down
her mouth and drops her eyes and sighs forth: 'Yes, most
sad; but the Admiral's sudden death must wholly be
attributed to that London trip. His daughter did not realise
that he was not strong enough to drag about after her. She,
like most girls, wanted to have a good time, and her poor
old father could not keep pace with her. He returned home a
perfect wreck, and the very next day he collapsed.' Now,
what do you think of that?"

"I suppose she thinks it true," said Austin loyally.

"Does she? Now, I'll tell you something else, for you
deserve to know it. Do you know what she told everybody
when you went away? That you had proposed to her, and
that she had refused you, for the very idea was
preposterous. She had only taken pity on you and talked to
you like a mother for your good, and you had simply made
a fool of yourself."

"I think I'll be walking on," said Austin, in dangerously

quiet tones. He was white with rage, and Jockie's audacity
for once deserted her:

"Oh, forgive me! What would Sidney say? I promised

her I would try to control my tongue."

Then, as Austin's long legs outwalked her, she called

out:

"All right, then. You need not think I am going to run by

your side. You're much more disagreeable than when you
went away."

Austin looked back, and raised his cap.

"I prefer sugar to vinegar. You won't keep any friends

with that tongue of yours."

And Jockie walked home humbly, for she felt the truth
of his words.

Austin had a warm welcome from his parents. His

mother corroborated much of what Jockie had told him, but
her plain dignified statements had more effect upon him
than Jockie's bitterness. Early the next morning he went
down to The Anchorage to see Sidney. It cost him some
effort, but he knew that he must meet Mrs. Urquhart soon,
and wanted the first plunge to be over.

He came across her in the garden giving directions to

the gardeners. She was looking as sweet as ever, and
greeted him with perfect ease.

"So glad to see you back. Your father has been wanting
you badly. What do you think of the sunny East?"

"Oh, tolerable! Is Sidney in? I'm awfully upset over the

Admiral's death, and came down to see her."

"Poor girl! She is wonderful. It has been so sad, for they

both intended this London visit to be one of keen
enjoyment. We little thought—"

"I have heard about it," said Austin abruptly. "Excuse

me going in. This place has always been like a second home
to me, and I'm bewildered at all these changes."

He heaved a sigh of relief as he got past her.

 "Thank goodness that's over! Jockie was quite right. I
did make a fool of myself."

He noticed at once the changes in the house; but when

he was shown into the morning-room, and Sidney held out
both hands with a bright smile of welcome, he almost broke
down.

"Oh, Sid! My little chum! What can I say? How we shall

miss him!"

Sidney's eyes filled with sudden tears.

"That's good to hear, Austin! He was very fond of you."

"Can you speak about it? Would you rather not?"

"I should love to tell you all about him, but I expect you
have heard."

"Not details. I want them."

So, in a soft steady voice Sidney went over those last

precious days, which would always be beloved in her
memory.

Austin had been so truly fond of her father, that his

sympathy was more to her than that shown by others. And
then he drew her on to talk of herself and her own plans.
He was aghast when she told him of her altered
circumstances.

"I shall have enough to live on," she told him; "but, of
course, father's pension is gone, and the house with all its
contents seems to belong to Uncle Ted. He has promised to
furnish a small cottage for me from any bits that I like to
pick out. Ethel suggests my going to Lovelace's Cottage,
which is still unlet; but I can't bring myself to do that. It is a
matter of pride, I am afraid."

"But you don't mean that they're going to turn you

out?"

"No, I am choosing to go myself. I have been too long

my own mistress to be happy here now. Uncle Ted has
besought me to stay; but it is neither good for him nor her
that I should do so. Your mother has very kindly asked me
to stay with her till I can find a house. I don't want to leave
neighbourhood."

"And you're coming to us? That's the first bit of good

news I've heard since I came back! It has been blow upon
blow! That imp of a girl met me yesterday on the way from
the station and poured a black recital into my ears."

"Do you mean Jockie? I thought you were good friends."

"So we were. She's a pretty little thing, too, but she

piled it on too strong, and did not spare me, I can tell you!
How on earth has she got hold of my father? She manages
him like no one else, my mother tells me. And he is actually
going to get rid of Dobbs!"

"Jockie has great tenderness under that careless

exterior; and patience, too. I have seen her with sick
people, and she is a different being at once. Poor Jockie!
She espouses my cause with too much zeal. She will learn
wisdom later on. And now tell me all about yourself. We
have talked enough of me and my troubles!"

So Austin leant back in a lounge chair, crossed his legs,

and for an hour discoursed to Sidney about all he had seen
and heard. When he at last rose to go, he said:
 "Come to us as soon as you can, won't you, Sid?"

Sidney nodded cheerfully.

They had not discussed Mrs. Urquhart at all; but Austin

encountered her again in the hall on his way out.

"I want to speak to you for a minute," she said, turning

wistful eyes upon him.

Austin followed her like a lamb into the drawing-room,

with an uneasy sense of walking into a snare.

"I want you to forgive me," she said, laying her hand
gently on his arm. "You went off so suddenly; you would
listen to no explanations. I was forced to act so. Your
mother implored me. And you know how often I reminded
you of the difference in our ages. It is a great mistake for a
middle-aged woman to tie a young fellow to herself. It
would have ruined your life. If I had consulted my own
feelings—"

She paused, and her eyes finished her sentence.

"Oh, that's all right," said Austin awkwardly; "that

chapter is closed. Don't for goodness' sake try to open it
again."

"Ah, you are hard and unforgiving! Let us close it, by all
means, but let us be friends. We live in the same
neighbourhood; don't let there be ill-feeling between us.
You say you have looked upon this house as a second
home. I want you to look upon it in that light still. Come in
when you want cheer, or comfort, or advice; let me feel that
I can still be a friend to you. I will not speak of myself. I
have many lonely hours, and the Major, as you know, does
not shine in conversation. But I cannot bear to live amongst
you, if you are going to give me the cold shoulder. It is my
misfortune to be over-sensitive, and I feel things so much
and so deeply!"

What could Austin say? He could never be anything but

courteous to a woman; so he murmured something about
the past being the past, and having no cause for
resentment, and then he slipped away.

"'Pon my soul," he muttered, "she's one too much for

me. I don't know where I am, but I'll keep clear of her for
all I'm worth; for I'll play the game with the old Major! And
I'm honestly sorry for the poor beggar!"

After Austin had left her, Sidney sat with her head in her
hands. In spite of her bright brave spirit, she had times of
real darkness and depression, and no one but herself knew
what an effort it was to live through her days.

She now was doing what she seldom allowed herself to

do—looking back into the past. It was hardly a year ago
that she had lost the one who was her all in all: not by
death—she could have borne that better—but by his own
treachery. Her soul writhed at the very thought of the valley
of humiliation into which he had cast her, and through which
she had struggled with soreness and anguish of heart. Now
she had lost both her father and home. Like Job, she felt
inclined to say: "My days are past, my purposes are broken
off, even the thoughts of my heart."

Her future seemed to stretch away from her in one

dreary monotonous line. The purpose in her life had been
snapped. The care of her father had been her absorbing
thought since the end had come between herself and Archie
Hughes. Now that was gone! How could she gather up the
broken fragments of her life to the best advantage?
 She lifted up her heart in earnest prayer:

"Thou will teach me how to glory in tribulation. Thou will

not quench the smoking flax! It is Thine hand upon me.
Show me what Thou wouldest have me to do."

This was the gist of her prayer. And when Sidney went
to her knees, she always rose with serene and steadfast
eyes.

"As long as I am left in the world, I am wanted there,"

she said to herself. "If my own personal life is not all that I
desire, there are other people's lives around me to be
thought of. And I am absolutely free to help wherever my
help is needed most."

It seemed at present to be needed at Thanning Towers.

Mrs. de Cressiers, with tears in her eyes, had begged her to
come to her.

"I have never urged you before, Sidney, because of

your dear father; but now your way seems clear. After all, I
am your nearest relation in this county. I may be able to
help you about getting a small house if you are still
determined to live alone; you certainly will help me. As one
gets older, one feels less equal to bearing the strain and
anxiety alone. You are the only one I can talk to about my
husband and boy, and you don't know what your sympathy
and companionship will be to me."

Sidney arranged to go. The evening before she went

she spent in tidying the Admiral's desk. Her uncle crept into
the room almost stealthily.

"Sid," he said dejectedly, "is it too late now to beg you

to change your mind? Our happy old days have slipped
away, but I would do all I could to make you comfortable, if
you stayed with us. You don't know what this house is
without you! You used to be fond of your old uncle. Are you
going to cast him off altogether?"

There was something so pathetic in his eyes that Sidney

almost cried. She put her hand on his shoulder caressingly.

"Dear Uncle Ted, you know I am fond of you still, but I

am quite sure I do not add to your happiness by staying
here. I shall be in the neighbourhood, and will often pop in
and see you."

He gave almost a groan.

"I am being justly punished, but I was a blind fool! I

never meant to oust you and poor Vernon. I'll never hold up
my head again, Sid. But one thing I've done: I've ordered
those guns back to where they were taken from, and there
they shall stay till my time comes to quit! I can assert
myself sometimes, but it's confoundedly hard!"

Sidney kissed him. Her heart ached for him as she saw
what a cipher he was in his own house. And though she
could not tell him so, she knew that his wife resented her
talking much with him alone.

Mrs. Urquhart showed the only impatience she ever

showed anyone towards her husband. Sidney saw that there
was no love to help her to endure his bachelor ways; she
had no real interest in his workshop. Her one idea was to fill
the house with company; and company of any sort the
Major thoroughly disliked. They had hardly any tastes in
common.

The Major spent half his days wandering through the

house looking for Sidney, and this was why Sidney was
anxious to leave. She knew the only chance for the ill-
matched couple to draw closer to one another was to leave
them alone. As long as there was a third person, the breach
would widen between them; for the Major was perplexed
and frightened by his wife's masterful methods, and avoided
being with her. Her manner was now coldly civil to him; her
sweet graciousness was only for outsiders. If she by chance
said a kind word, the poor old Major would become almost
hilarious with joy; then a little curl of his wife's upper lip
would send him shrinking into his shell again. And he could
not understand why he should not seek Sidney's society in
preference to his wife's. When the time came for her to
leave for Thanning Towers, he accompanied her to the gate.

"You'll remember that anything out of the house can be

moved to your new home," he said, waxing bold as soon as
he got out of earshot of his wife. "You have only to tell me,
and I'll see that they're sent off. And, Sid, my dear child,
just assure me the past is forgiven. You don't bear me
malice for the—the step I took? And will you come to me, if
I'm taken ill; one can't have good health for ever; and I
sometimes think that I'm beginning to break up. You won't
cut us, will you?"

"Why, Uncle Ted, you are quite morbid! Of course I

won't! And if you're ill, send for me at once. I will run over
and tell you directly I have made my plans. I am not going
very far-away, you know. Good-bye, dear."

She gave him one of her old hugs, then turned quickly
away, for there were actually tears in the Major's eyes. He
coughed them down, and as Sidney watched his retreating
figure out of the carriage window, she noted that his
shoulders seemed extra bent and his limping gait more
discernible.
 "He is getting an old man," she said to herself. "Oh, I
hope she will be kind to him."

To Thanning Towers she went, and took with her there

an atmosphere of sunny content which was felt by all who
came near her. Mrs. de Cressiers' troubled brow relaxed;
she could speak to Sidney, and to Sidney alone, of her fears
about her husband's state of mind and body. And the very
speaking of it seemed to lift a weight off her spirit. Mr. de
Cressiers liked to hear her sing. It was the keenest delight
left to him to listen to any music, and Sidney's wonderfully
sweet and thrilling voice brought messages of peace and
comfort to his soul. Austin shouldered his burden in gay
spirits when Sidney was near at hand. She was the recipient
of confidences from father, mother and son, and her
presence in the house was joy to all.

Jockie still came and went. At first she said she would
be wanted no longer, but Mr. de Cressiers was always ready
to listen to her lively chatter, and Sidney told Mrs. de
Cressiers that her gay spirits were better than any amount
of doctor's visits for the invalid. Mrs. de Cressiers assented.
She had no objection to the pleasant intercourse that
existed between her husband and Jockie, but when it came
to that between her son and the girl, she became alarmed.

Sidney laughed at her.

"You must expect young people to be friendly; Jockie is

the last girl in the world to mean anything serious by it. And
if it did come to anything, you would gain a dear little
daughter-in-law!"

"She is a perfect hoyden, and not at all the style I

approve of. I want Austin to marry in his own class, not
beneath him."
 "But," expostulated Sidney, "Jockie is a little lady. Her
father is Mr. Borlace's cousin, and you have always said that
it was an advantage to us to have a rector who was really
well born."

"Oh yes; the rector is a gentleman, but the Borlaces are

not county; and I don't know who the girl's mother was.
Austin must marry well."

"There is no one about here who is good enough for

him," said Sidney with a mischievous smile. "You despise
titles, so you would not care for a titled daughter-in-law. I
think Jockie would suit him very well."

Mrs. de Cressiers' head was a few inches higher than

usual.

"She would not suit me. I do not want to be connected

with our rector. If I thought that there was anything
between them, I should stop her coming to the house
altogether."

"Well," said Sidney, "the surest way to make them care

for each other is to keep them apart now. Don't try it, dear
Mrs. Cressiers."

Mrs. de Cressiers looked unconvinced; but she kept her

own counsel after that, and never mentioned the subject
again. And Jockie and Austin continued to chaff each other,
and were a great deal more together than either Mrs. de
Cressiers or Sidney imagined.
 CHAPTER XVII
STRUCK DOWN

"AUNT MONNIE, do take me with you."

Monica was driving off in her high dogcart one afternoon

in May. She was going over to see a neighbouring farmer,
who lived nine miles off, about some business matter.
Chuckles, in his holland overall, came tearing across the
garden.

For a moment Monica hesitated. In after years, she

often wondered if it had been her good angel who tried to
intervene. Then, seeing the eager expectancy in the child's
eyes, she told him to climb up. For a moment she thought
of telling him to put on an overcoat, but the sun was bright,
and she had a warm plaid over her knees, so she drove off
with him, saying dryly:

"I hope we shall not meet anyone, for a more smutty

nephew I think no one could possess!"

"It's the waterbutt; I'm sailing my walnuts in it. They're

the Channel fleet on an island of water."

"There's no such thing as an island of water."

"Isn't there? What is it when the land comes round the

water?"

"The water is then a lake."

Chuckles tipped his hat back on his head and thought

hard. Then his mind took another turn.
 "Aunt Monnie, I feel I was born a sailor."

"You were born to be a farmer," said Monica firmly. "You

were born on a farm abroad. Your father brought you home
and meant to farm himself, and bring you up to it. He was
taken from you, and I am bringing you up in the way he
wished."

"I think father is very happy to be an angel instead. I'd

rather be an angel than a farmer."

"Why don't you like farming? You never used to talk like
this?"

Chuckles considered.

"I always did like water better than earth," he said

solemnly. "I remembers when I was a baby I liked it. And
everybody ought to fight for their country—Miss Jockie says
so—and farmers don't fight. Aunt Monnie, if you promise
you'll change me from a farmer into a sailor, I'll bring you
back a red and green parrot the first day I come back from
sea!"

"No," said Monica, trying to speak lightly; "I can't be

bribed, Chuckles. You must grow up a good man, and carry
out your father's wishes."

Chuckles said no more. His aunt drove on through the

sunshiny green lanes feeling a heavy weight on her heart.
Her farm had not been prospering lately; her new man was
careless and untrustworthy. She feared she would not be
able to keep him, but she dreaded another change.
Chuckles always depressed her when he talked of his dislike
to farming. She wondered as he grew older if he would take
his own way instead of hers. He had a stubborn will and
much tenacity of purpose; but she told herself that she had
not toiled all these years to give up the fruits of her labour
at a child's bidding.

And then, dismissing the subject from her mind, she

talked quite happily to the small boy till she reached her
destination. Her business did not take her very long. She
left Chuckles the proud possessor of the reins outside the
house, and when she joined him again, he relinquished
them very reluctantly.

"I can drive Nellie. She turned her head to look at me,
for she meant to bolt, but I showed her the whip and she
was afraid of me!"

Monica drove home a different way. She was not quite

certain of the road, and missed her bearings, but when the
river came in sight she was reassured, for she knew she
had only to follow it. Some tall yellow flags attracted
Chuckles' attention. He begged to be allowed to get down
and gather them.

"You must be quick, then," his aunt said to him, "or we

shall be very late home."

He scrambled down. Monica dreamily gazed before her,

enjoying the beauty of the scene. The river banks were
shrouded with scenery: wild roses, honeysuckle, and the
white meadow-sweet climbed in riotous profusion over the
bushes. Here and there clumps of blue forget-me-nots
brightened the edge of the water. On the farther side of the
river was a wooded hill, and in a dip at one side was a
glimpse of the distant sea. Clouds were rolling in from it,
and Monica began to fear that a storm was on its way.

She was about to call to Chuckles, when a sharp scream

and a heavy splash broke the silence reigning. In an instant
Monica sprang down and dashed to the bank. She saw
Chuckles struggling in the water. There was a rapid current,
and he was being carried down the river. In one second she
plunged in just as she was. She could swim, but her clothes
were heavy, and in one agonising moment, when the little
figure sank, she feared she had lost him. Then he rose, she
was able to get hold of him, and in another moment she
struggled to the bank with him and landed herself and him
safely on shore. Chuckles was frightened and exhausted,
but quite conscious. She rapidly wrung his clothes as dry as
she could, and then wrapped him tightly round in the warm
plaid and laid him in the bottom of the trap.

"There!" she exclaimed. "That is a cold pack! Lie still,

and I will drive to the nearest house and get you dried and
warm."

Then she wrung her wet garments, got into the trap,
and drove as fast as she could homewards. It was a lonely
bit of country, and after satisfying herself that Chuckles was
well and warm, she did not go out of her way to look for
any houses. Her nerves were strong, but the realisation how
near the child had been to death that afternoon set her face
in tense lines, and made her strong capable hands tremble.
More than once she bent over the child to listen to his
breathing. She caught herself picturing her return home
with a little drowned body at her feet, and she shuddered at
the vista it opened out before her of a purposeless future
and a wasted past.

A strong keen wind blew in from the sea; the clouds

rolled up and obscured the sun, and Monica shivered with
cold. She found driving in drenched garments a very
miserable experience. She had not even a rug over her
knees, nothing to protect her from the rising storm. And
about two miles from home, the storm broke full upon her.
She drove into her own gates with a blue face and
chattering teeth, but in spite of all Aunt Dannie's
expostulations, she would not change her wet garments till
she had put Chuckles to bed with her own hands, given him
something hot to drink, and seen him drop off into a quiet
sleep. Then, she thought of herself, and went off to her own
room to get into dry clothes.

The next morning she was too racked with pain to get
out of bed, and before another day dawned she was in the
throes of rheumatic fever. Sidney did not hear of it till the
evening, and then she left Thanning Towers and went over
to help nurse her friend. Jockie carried off Chuckles to the
Rectory, and Aunt Dannie and Sidney, with the doctor's
help, fought hard to keep death at bay. Monica was a strong
woman, but for once she had presumed too much upon her
hardy constitution, and Nature asserted itself with a
vengeance. She was wrapped in cotton-wool from head to
foot, and fever ran high. It was pitiful to hear her repeating
over and over again:

"Save the child! It does not matter about me. He must

live. Oh, leave me, and help him! Don't you hear his cries
for help?"

Dr. Lanyard was indefatigable in his care and attention.

"We can't spare her yet, Miss Urquhart," he would say

to Sidney; "hers is a valuable life. We must not let her slip!"

And Sidney prayed earnestly for her recovery, and

nursed her with fervent devotion. The doctor at last insisted
upon a nurse, for he saw that Sidney was wearing herself
out.

Aunt Dannie was not of much use in the sickroom, and

when Monica was conscious, the poor old lady's nervous
fussy movements seemed to irritate her. So Sidney
persuaded her to remain downstairs and try to superintend
the many daily duties of the servants and farm hands.

Three weeks, four weeks passed, and only then did

Monica slowly creep back to convalescence. This was the
most trying part of her illness, for she began to fret and
worry over her farm. Sidney tried to keep things from her,
for matters had not improved during her illness. Her head
man was more unsatisfactory than ever; he absented
himself for days together from the farm without any
ostensible reason, except that he was doing business in the
neighbouring town, and the labourers were becoming slack.
They could not work without a head. The hay was left uncut
too long, and a wet month ensued, ruining some most
promising crops of rich meadow-grass.

One morning Sidney stood looking out of the sitting-

room window in deep dejection of mind.

The doctor had paid his usual daily visit, and had
shaken his head when he had come out of the sickroom. He
had followed Sidney downstairs, and had blurted out:

"Cheer her up, Miss Urquhart! She is a strong woman.

She ought not to lie worrying there over inevitable
circumstances. She must use her strength of will now to
some purpose, to help her to endure what is before her, for
her farming days are over. I fear she will not walk round her
fields for many months to come—perhaps never!"

Sidney stared at him with pallid cheeks.

"Oh, don't say that! Give her hope, or she will die. She
has been so strong, she has had such no outdoor life!
Surely her iron constitution will save her from chronic
rheumatism!"
 "I have seen too many like her. She will be crippled for
the rest of her life, I fear. This rheumatism has seized hold
of her like a vice, and attacked every joint. When she gets
stronger she might try some baths, or the electrical
treatment, but her age is against her."

"She is in the prime of life."

"If she were ten years younger she would have a better
chance," said the doctor grimly.

Sidney could not speak. Her heart ached for her friend.
She shook hands with the doctor in silence as he went
away, and now stood at the window and watched a grey
mist roll in like smoke from the sea.

The trees and grass were sodden with wet, but the
dreariness outside did not equal the dreariness within. Aunt
Dannie wandered up and down the house with tear-stained
cheeks, murmuring weakly to herself:

"What shall we all do! Everything is going to pieces for

want of a head!"

The three young maids quarrelled with each other, and,

realising that their mistress's tight hand was for the time
withdrawn, spent most of their time in gossip and surmises
about the future. Chuckles' absence brought an unusual
quiet and stillness into the atmosphere, and Sidney,
standing in her deep mourning by the window, began to feel
that deeper trouble than her own seemed to be brewing in
the farm.

She thought of Monica, who had boasted that she could

never remember a day's illness in her life; Monica, strong
and active, whose greatest joy was striding over her fields
in all weathers; whose greatest penance was to sit still for
any given time indoors; and who was now condemned by
the doctor to be a cripple for life and never walk again.

"Oh!" cried Sidney, raising her sweet face to the sky. "I
wish it had been me. I wish I could bear it for her. I have no
ties now, nothing to demand my health and strength, and I
should be able to draw comfort from the One Monica does
not know. I don't see how she will be able to endure. It's a
terrible verdict."

"Sidney, my dear, she is asking for you."

Aunt Dannie broke in upon her musings, and as Sidney

went upstairs in obedience to the summons, her heart was
saying:

"Oh, God, help me to help her. Do Thou help her

Thyself."

Monica lay on her bed, a wreck of her former self. She

could not move without pain, but she tried to smile when
she saw Sidney.

"How soon shall I be about again?" she said. "The

doctor looks so mysterious when I question him. Did he say
anything to you this morning?"

"It will be a long business, dear, we are afraid."

Sidney spoke cheerfully, but her eyes could not meet

Monica's.

"Does he not think I am going to recover?"

The words came like a pistol shot, so sharp and incisive

they were.
 "Oh, yes—yes—you are getting on splendidly, but you
have had a very severe attack, and it will take time."

There was silence for a few minutes, then Monica said:

"Chuckles must go to school as soon as possible. I

meant him to go after Easter."

"After the midsummer holidays will be time enough,

dear. Jockie is teaching him and looking after him. He is
very happy and good."

"How long have I been ill?"

"Six weeks."

"And the hay. Has it all been saved?"

"Not all," said Sidney evasively. "You really must not

worry over anything just now, Monnie, or you will never get
well."

"But I can't continue to lie here," said Monica in feverish

excitement. "I must be getting about to look after things."

She tried to rise, but the excruciating pains in her limbs

made her sink back amongst her pillows with a groan.

Sidney tried to soothe and comfort her, but it was hard

work. Monica made an exceedingly bad patient. And as her
mind grew clearer and stronger, her irritability and
impatience seemed to increase. Even Sidney felt a desire at
times to go away and leave her to herself. No one had the
courage to tell her of the doctor's gloomy fears. But as time
went on, and she found that strength did not come to her
crippled limbs, Monica began to have her dark hours of
doubt. When she was well enough to be put into a wheeled
chair, she was brought downstairs.

Sidney had arranged that a friendly farmer near should

take over the bulk of the crops and superintend all
necessary farming operations for the time. This was highly
resented by Frank Edge, the head man, but he had been
absent so much from his work that he had little cause for
complaint. Austin de Cressiers had helped Sidney a great
deal when appeal to Monica had been impossible, but his
advice was not always followed.

"Chuck Edge if he doesn't do his work! Chuck them all;

it's the only way! I'd chuck anyone who didn't serve me
faithfully, in the twinkling of an eye!"

But Sidney did not feel she had the authority to "chuck"
any of Monica's people, and Aunt Dannie was hopeless and
helpless about any practical issue.

When Monica was downstairs, it was impossible to keep

things from her. She insisted on interviewing her man, and
the interview was a trying one to both of them. She
dismissed him at once.

Sidney went back to Thanning Towers for a week or

two, as Mrs. de Cressiers was not very well. Once away, she
found it very difficult to get back to the farm, and Monica
was forced to meet and fight her battles alone. Chuckles
was packed off to a private boarding-school, and he
departed in high spirits. Childlike, he had little notion of his
aunt's self-sacrificing devotion to him, and did not seem to
take in that her illness was due to her care and love of him.

Sidney had a very long Sunday talk with him before he

went.
 "I won't forget I'm a building," said Chuckles, looking
into her face with great earnestness. "And I've got to build
and God has to build, and we're going to do it wiv each
other."

"No, Chuckles; God must put His Hand over yours and
teach you how to lay every brick."

"Should I put them on crooked?"

"Very crooked; so crooked that they would never hold

together, and only come to the ground with a crash!"

"But that's only when a storm comes, and I'm not on

the rocks. I mean to be quite, quite steady, I 'sure you, for I
aren't on the sand. What do you think my school bwicks will
be?"

"The same as at home. Truth is one, obedience another.

Industry—"

Chuckles jumped up and put his small hand over her

lips.

"Don't say them all. They're so dis-disinter-westing."

Yet his last words to her were:

"I shall have gwown into a strong tower when you see
me nex'. A very high one indeed."

And Sidney kissed him with laughing eyes. "You dear

little man! I shall expect to see and hear great things now
you are a genuine schoolboy."

It was a lovely autumnal morning. Sidney was walking

along a terrace of roses at Thanning Towers, reading a
letter from Randolph Neville. It was the first one she had
received since she had left her old home, and her eyes
devoured each line with an eagerness which surprised
herself.

"DEAR FELLOW BUILDER,

"Not one word will I tell you of my

surroundings or work till I have talked of your
heavy trouble. Blow upon blow seems to have
fallen upon you. I have written before of my
deep sympathy for you in the loss of your dear
father; but why need there have followed such
an uprooting? Surely your uncle's house is
yours? You say little about his bride, and I have
to read between the lines. I feel a tremendous
longing surge up within me to come straight
home and learn how it is with you. When I
return, shall I find that Thanning Dale knows
you no more? I cannot see it without your light
active figure flitting along the roads, climbing
the beacon, gathering flowers in your quaint old
garden by the sea.

"Will you write me a letter in answer to this

and tell me all about yourself, and your feelings
and outlook, and about no one else at all? I am
greedy for news of you. I cannot see you at
Thanning Towers. You ought to be in a setting
of your own. Don't, I beseech you, go away and
try to forget your troubles in the seething
turmoil of city life. I have been too long without
a real home of my own to wish you a similar
fate. You write so calmly about being a single
woman with no ties, but you are not a woman
 to be without a home; you are essentially the
ideal home-maker. I cannot separate you from
all that brings peace and rest and cheer to any
toil-worn, weary traveller.

"Who is looking after you, guarding and

advising you? Have you anyone who notes
whether you are weary or tired, anyone whose
joy it is to watch every passing emotion on your
face, to awake smiles, and still tears? Oh, I
expect you will say I am writing like some
sentimental boy; but I do not feel like one. I
have been hardened and roughened in the
school of life, but I am like a traveller who has
trodden tracts of desolation and dreariness and
has suddenly found an oasis in the desert, with
such a cluster of pure and sweet-scented
blossoms growing there that long after he has
left it the scent and refreshment and delight of
that moment remains with him still. Would the
traveller hear unmoved that the sweet centre of
that spot had been ruthlessly torn from its
setting, and the oasis would know it no more?
Write to me, I plead again, of yourself, for it is
you who pass and repass in my thoughts night
and day.

"Your far-away friend,

"RANDOLPH
NEVILLE."

Sidney's face was flushed as she folded up the letter

and slipped it into her pocket. She stood leaning against the
low terrace wall, a picture of dainty grace and sweetness,
and in her eyes was a dreamy glow of expectation.

"Oh," she said half aloud, "if I could only see him
walking up this path, I should never feel lonely again. He
has never written me such a letter before. What does he
mean by it, I wonder?"

Her answer was not long in the sending.

"DEAR MR. NEVILLE,

"Your letter has already comforted me. It is

such a wonderful thing that my troubles and
concerns are of more interest to you, so many
thousand miles away, than to any of my friends
here with whom I talk and live every day. I
don't know that it is a good thing to write about
oneself. I have never been in the habit of doing
so; nor do I wish to spend much of my time in
self-pity and self-introspection. Life has
changed to me, of course. But it had changed
before my father died. The glamour and joy of it
had steadied down to quiet content. And so
long as I had him to live for, I wanted nothing
else. Yet there were reasons that made me
thankful for his absence later on.

"And now I try not to think whether I am

happy or not. What does it matter? There are
others who have as deep sorrows as I have
had, and are taking life as I am taking it—just a
day at a time, to be lived, not so much for
oneself now, as for those who need our care
and pity. Mrs. de Cressiers will not let me leave
her. I must do so before long. But I do not think
I will take refuge in towns. I love every inch of
these sweet country lanes, every ripple of the
river that laps under its green banks, always
calling one down to the sea. My uncle asked me
wistfully yesterday, when I happened to meet
him trudging down to the river, where I was
going to settle. He told me there was a small
house empty upon the cliffs at Yalstone. 'I could
often turn in when I'm fishing, and we'd have
yarns together,' he said. But I had to shake my
head. Much as I love the sea, I could not live so
close to it. I told you in my last letter about
Monica. Oh, isn't life perplexing and sad? And
she has not the key of Faith to unravel it. It is
all dark to her. I am going to see her this
afternoon.

"Do, please, tell me a little of your doings

when next you write. I hear scraps about you
from Gavine, who, of course, hears them from
George Lockhart. She says you have had an
attack of fever. Are you over it yet? Have you
anyone—you see I am taking a leaf out of your
book—who looks after you and nurses you when
ill?

"And now I'll answer some of your questions.

I have Someone Who watches over me and
notes if I am weary or tired; Someone Who
guards and advises me; Someone Who brings
smiles to my lips and stills the tears that rise,
and understands the very thoughts of my heart;
Someone Who daily makes that promise good:
'Lo! I am with you alway, even unto the end of
the world.'