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EIGHTH EDITION

Statistics for Business

and Economics
Global Edition

Paul Newbold
University of Nottingham

William L. Carlson
St. Olaf College

Betty M. Thorne
Stetson University

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Authorised adaptation from the United States edition, entitled Statistics for Business and Economics,
8th Edition, ISBN: 978-0-13-274565-9 by Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson and Betty Thorne,
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I dedicate this book to Sgt. Lawrence Martin Carlson, who
gave his life in service to his country on November 19,
2006, and to his mother, Charlotte Carlson, to his sister and
brother, Andrea and Douglas, to his children, Savannah,
and Ezra, and to his nieces, Helana, Anna, Eva Rose, and
Emily.
William L. Carlson

I dedicate this book to my husband, Jim, and to our family,

Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina,
Jim, Wendy, Marius, Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia.
Betty M. Thorne
 ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Dr. Bill Carlson is professor emeritus of economics at St. Olaf College, where he taught
for 31 years, serving several times as department chair and in various administrative func-
tions, including director of academic computing. He has also held leave assignments with
the U.S. government and the University of Minnesota in addition to lecturing at many dif-
ferent universities. He was elected an honorary member of Phi Beta Kappa. In addition, he
spent 10 years in private industry and contract research prior to beginning his career at St.
Olaf. His education includes engineering degrees from Michigan Technological University
(BS) and from the Illinois Institute of Technology (MS) and a PhD in quantitative man-
agement from the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan. Numerous
research projects related to management, highway safety, and statistical education have
produced more than 50 publications. He received the Metropolitan Insurance Award of
Merit for Safety Research. He has previously published two statistics textbooks. An im-
portant goal of this book is to help students understand the forest and not be lost in the
trees. Hiking the Lake Superior trail in Northern Minnesota helps in developing this goal.
Professor Carlson led a number of study-abroad programs, ranging from 1 to 5 months, for
study in various countries around the world. He was the executive director of the Cannon
Valley Elder Collegium and a regular volunteer for a number of community activities. He
is a member of both the Methodist and Lutheran disaster-relief teams and a regular partic-
ipant in the local Habitat for Humanity building team. He enjoys his grandchildren, wood-
working, travel, reading, and being on assignment on the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Dr. Betty M. Thorne, author, researcher, and award-winning teacher, is professor of sta-
tistics and director of undergraduate studies in the School of Business Administration at
Stetson University in DeLand, Florida. Winner of Stetson University’s McEniry Award for
Excellence in Teaching, the highest honor given to a Stetson University faculty member,
Dr. Thorne is also the recipient of the Outstanding Teacher of the Year Award and Pro-
fessor of the Year Award in the School of Business Administration at Stetson. Dr. Thorne
teaches in Stetson University’s undergradaute business program in DeLand, Florida, and
also in Stetson’s summer program in Innsbruck, Austria; Stetson University’s College of
Law; Stetson University’s Executive MBA program; and Stetson University’s Executive
Passport program. Dr. Thorne has received various teaching awards in the JD/MBA pro-
gram at Stetson’s College of Law in Gulfport, Florida. She received her BS degree from
Geneva College and MA and PhD degrees from Indiana University. She has co-au-
thored statistics textbooks which have been translated into several languages and ad-
opted by universities, nationally and internationally. She serves on key school and
university committees. Dr. Thorne, whose research has been published in various ref-
ereed journals, is a member of the American Statistical Association, the Decision Sci-
ence Institute, Beta Alpha Psi, Beta Gamma Sigma, and the Academy of International
Business. She and her husband, Jim, have four children. They travel extensively, attend
theological conferences and seminars, participate in international organizations dedicated
to helping disadvantaged children, and do missionary work in Romania.

4
 BRIEF CONTENTS

Preface 13

Data File Index 19

CHAPTER 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data 21

CHAPTER 2 Using Numerical Measures to Describe Data 59

CHAPTER 3 Elements of Chance: Probability Methods 93

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Probability Distributions 146

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Probability Distributions 197

CHAPTER 6 Distributions of Sample Statistics 244

CHAPTER 7 Confidence Interval Estimation: One Population 284

CHAPTER 8 Confidence Interval Estimation: Further Topics 328

CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Tests of a Single Population 346

CHAPTER 10 Two Population Hypothesis Tests 385

CHAPTER 11 Two Variable Regression Analysis 417

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Variable Regression Analysis 473

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 551

CHAPTER 14 Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics 602

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 645

CHAPTER 16 Forecasting with Time-Series Models 684

CHAPTER 17 Sampling: Stratified, Cluster, and Other Sampling Methods 716

Appendix Tables 738

Index 783

5
This page intentionally left blank
 CONTENTS

Preface 13
Data File Index 19

CHAPTER 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data 21

1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment 22
Random and Systematic Sampling 22
Sampling and Nonsampling Errors 24
1.2 Classification of Variables 25
Categorical and Numerical Variables 25
Measurement Levels 26
1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables 28
Tables and Charts 28
Cross Tables 29
Pie Charts 31
Pareto Diagrams 32
1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data 35
1.5 Graphs to Describe Numerical Variables 40
Frequency Distributions 40
Histograms and Ogives 44
Shape of a Distribution 44
Stem-and-Leaf Displays 46
Scatter Plots 47
1.6 Data Presentation Errors 51
Misleading Histograms 51
Misleading Time-Series Plots 53

CHAPTER 2 Using Numerical Measures to Describe Data 59

2.1 Measures of Central Tendency and Location 59
Mean, Median, and Mode 60
Shape of a Distribution 62
Geometric Mean 63
Percentiles and Quartiles 64
2.2 Measures of Variability 68
Range and Interquartile Range 69
Box-and-Whisker Plots 69
Variance and Standard Deviation 71
Coefficient of Variation 75
Chebyshev’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule 75
z-Score 77
2.3 Weighted Mean and Measures of Grouped Data 80
2.4 Measures of Relationships Between Variables 84
Case Study: Mortgage Portfolio 91

7
 CHAPTER 3 Elements of Chance: Probability Methods 93
3.1 Random Experiment, Outcomes, and Events 94
3.2 Probability and Its Postulates 101
Classical Probability 101
Permutations and Combinations 102
Relative Frequency 106
Subjective Probability 107
3.3 Probability Rules 111
Conditional Probability 113
Statistical Independence 116
3.4 Bivariate Probabilities 122
Odds 126
Overinvolvement Ratios 126
3.5 Bayes’ Theorem 132
Subjective Probabilities in Management Decision Making 138

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Probability Distributions 146

4.1 Random Variables 147
4.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 148
4.3 Properties of Discrete Random Variables 152
Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable 152
Variance of a Discrete Random Variable 153
Mean and Variance of Linear Functions of a Random Variable 155
4.4 Binomial Distribution 159
Developing the Binomial Distribution 160
4.5 Poisson Distribution 167
Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution 171
Comparison of the Poisson and Binomial Distributions 172
4.6 Hypergeometric Distribution 173
4.7 Jointly Distributed Discrete Random Variables 176
Conditional Mean and Variance 180
Computer Applications 180
Linear Functions of Random Variables 180
Covariance 181
Correlation 182
Portfolio Analysis 186

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Probability Distributions 197

5.1 Continuous Random Variables 198
The Uniform Distribution 201
5.2 Expectations for Continuous Random Variables 203
5.3 The Normal Distribution 206
Normal Probability Plots 215
5.4 Normal Distribution Approximation for Binomial Distribution 219
Proportion Random Variable 223
5.5 The Exponential Distribution 225
5.6 Jointly Distributed Continuous Random Variables 228
Linear Combinations of Random Variables 232
Financial Investment Portfolios 232
Cautions Concerning Finance Models 236

8 Contents
CHAPTER 6 Distributions of Sample Statistics 244
6.1 Sampling from a Population 245
Development of a Sampling Distribution 246
6.2 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means 249
Central Limit Theorem 254
Monte Carlo Simulations: Central Limit Theorem 254
Acceptance Intervals 260
6.3 Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions 265
6.4 Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances 270

CHAPTER 7 Confidence Interval Estimation: One Population 284

7.1 Properties of Point Estimators 285
Unbiased 286
Most Efficient 287
7.2 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean of a Normal Distribution:
Population Variance Known 291
Intervals Based on the Normal Distribution 292
Reducing Margin of Error 295
7.3 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean of a Normal Distribution:
Population Variance Unknown 297
Student’s t Distribution 297
Intervals Based on the Student’s t Distribution 299
7.4 Confidence Interval Estimation for Population Proportion
(Large Samples) 303
7.5 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Variance of a Normal
Distribution 306
7.6 Confidence Interval Estimation: Finite Populations 309
Population Mean and Population Total 309
Population Proportion 312
7.7 Sample-Size Determination: Large Populations 315
Mean of a Normally Distributed Population, Known Population
Variance 315
Population Proportion 317
7.8 Sample-Size Determination: Finite Populations 319
Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling: Estimation of the Population
Mean or Total 320
Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling: Estimation of Population
Proportion 321

CHAPTER 8 Confidence Interval Estimation: Further Topics 328

8.1 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Normal Population
Means: Dependent Samples 329
8.2 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Normal Population
Means: Independent Samples 333
Two Means, Independent Samples, and Known Population Variances 333
Two Means, Independent Samples, and Unknown Population Variances Assumed to
Be Equal 335
Two Means, Independent Samples, and Unknown Population Variances Not Assumed to
Be Equal 337
8.3 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Population
Proportions (Large Samples) 340

Contents 9
 CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Tests of a Single Population 346
9.1 Concepts of Hypothesis Testing 347
9.2 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 352
p-Value 354
Two-Sided Alternative Hypothesis 360
9.3 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Unknown 362
9.4 Tests of the Population Proportion (Large Samples) 366
9.5 Assessing the Power of a Test 368
Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population
Variance Known 369
Power of Population Proportion Tests (Large Samples) 371
9.6 Tests of the Variance of a Normal Distribution 375

CHAPTER 10 Two Population Hypothesis Tests 385

10.1 Tests of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means:
Dependent Samples 387
Two Means, Matched Pairs 387
10.2 Tests of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means:
Independent Samples 391
Two Means, Independent Samples, Known Population Variances 391
Two Means, Independent Samples, Unknown Population Variances Assumed to Be Equal 393
Two Means, Independent Samples, Unknown Population Variances Not Assumed to Be Equal 396
10.3 Tests of the Difference Between Two Population Proportions (Large Samples) 399
10.4 Tests of the Equality of the Variances Between Two Normally Distributed
Populations 403
10.5 Some Comments on Hypothesis Testing 406

CHAPTER 11 Two Variable Regression Analysis 417

11.1 Overview of Linear Models 418
11.2 Linear Regression Model 421
11.3 Least Squares Coefficient Estimators 427
Computer Computation of Regression Coefficients 429
11.4 The Explanatory Power of a Linear Regression Equation 431
Coefficient of Determination, R2 433
11.5 Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals 438
Hypothesis Test for Population Slope Coefficient Using the F Distribution 443
11.6 Prediction 446
11.7 Correlation Analysis 452
Hypothesis Test for Correlation 452
11.8 Beta Measure of Financial Risk 456
11.9 Graphical Analysis 458

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Variable Regression Analysis 473

12.1 The Multiple Regression Model 474
Model Specification 474
Model Objectives 476
Model Development 477
Three-Dimensional Graphing 480

10 Contents
 12.2 Estimation of Coefficients 481
Least Squares Procedure 482
12.3 Explanatory Power of a Multiple Regression Equation 488
12.4 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Individual Regression Coefficients 493
Confidence Intervals 495
Tests of Hypotheses 497
12.5 Tests on Regression Coefficients 505
Tests on All Coefficients 505
Test on a Subset of Regression Coefficients 506
Comparison of F and t Tests 508
12.6 Prediction 511
12.7 Transformations for Nonlinear Regression Models 514
Quadratic Transformations 515
Logarithmic Transformations 517
12.8 Dummy Variables for Regression Models 522
Differences in Slope 525
12.9 Multiple Regression Analysis Application Procedure 529
Model Specification 529
Multiple Regression 531
Effect of Dropping a Statistically Significant Variable 532
Analysis of Residuals 534

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 551

13.1 Model-Building Methodology 552
Model Specification 552
Coefficient Estimation 553
Model Verification 554
Model Interpretation and Inference 554
13.2 Dummy Variables and Experimental Design 554
Experimental Design Models 558
Public Sector Applications 563
13.3 Lagged Values of the Dependent Variable as Regressors 567
13.4 Specification Bias 571
13.5 Multicollinearity 574
13.6 Heteroscedasticity 577
13.7 Autocorrelated Errors 582
Estimation of Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors 586
Autocorrelated Errors in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables 590

CHAPTER 14 Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics 602

14.1 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Specified Probabilities 603
14.2 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Population Parameters Unknown 609
A Test for the Poisson Distribution 609
A Test for the Normal Distribution 611
14.3 Contingency Tables 614
14.4 Nonparametric Tests for Paired or Matched Samples 619
Sign Test for Paired or Matched Samples 619
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for Paired or Matched Samples 622
Normal Approximation to the Sign Test 623

Contents 11
 Normal Approximation to the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test 624
Sign Test for a Single Population Median 626
14.5 Nonparametric Tests for Independent Random Samples 628
Mann-Whitney U Test 628
Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 631
14.6 Spearman Rank Correlation 634
14.7 A Nonparametric Test for Randomness 636
Runs Test: Small Sample Size 636
Runs Test: Large Sample Size 638

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 645

15.1 Comparison of Several Population Means 645
15.2 One-Way Analysis of Variance 647
Multiple Comparisons Between Subgroup Means 654
Population Model for One-Way Analysis of Variance 655
15.3 The Kruskal-Wallis Test 658
15.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: One Observation per Cell, Randomized Blocks 661
15.5 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: More Than One Observation per Cell 670

CHAPTER 16 Forecasting with Time-Series Models 684

16.1 Components of a Time Series 685
16.2 Moving Averages 689
Extraction of the Seasonal Component Through Moving Averages 692
16.3 Exponential Smoothing 697
The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model 700
Forecasting Seasonal Time Series 704
16.4 Autoregressive Models 708
16.5 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models 713

CHAPTER 17 Sampling: Stratified, Cluster, and Other Sampling Methods 716

17.1 Stratified Sampling 716
Analysis of Results from Stratified Random Sampling 718
Allocation of Sample Effort Among Strata 723
Determining Sample Sizes for Stratified Random Sampling with Specified
Degree of Precision 725
17.2 Other Sampling Methods 729
Cluster Sampling 729
Two-Phase Sampling 732
Nonprobabilistic Sampling Methods 734

APPENDIX TABLES 738

INDEX 783

12 Contents
 PREFACE

INTENDED AUDIENCE
Statistics for Business and Economics, 8th edition, was written to meet the need for an in-
troductory text that provides a strong introduction to business statistics, develops un-
derstanding of concepts, and emphasizes problem solving using realistic examples that
emphasize real data sets and computer based analysis. These examples emphasize busi-
ness and economics examples for the following:
• MBA or undergraduate business programs that teach business statistics
• Graduate and undergraduate economics programs
• Executive MBA programs
• Graduate courses for business statistics

SUBSTANCE
This book was written to provide a strong introductory understanding of applied statisti-
cal procedures so that individuals can do solid statistical analysis in many business and
economic situations. We have emphasized an understanding of the assumptions that are
necessary for professional analysis. In particular we have greatly expanded the number of
applications that utilize data from applied policy and research settings. Data and problem
scenarios have been obtained from business analysts, major research organizations, and
selected extractions from publicly available data sources. With modern computers it is
easy to compute, from data, the output needed for many statistical procedures. Thus, it is
tempting to merely apply simple “rules” using these outputs—an approach used in many
textbooks. Our approach is to combine understanding with many examples and student
exercises that show how understanding of methods and their assumptions lead to useful
understanding of business and economic problems.

NEW TO THIS EDITION

The eighth edition of this book has been revised and updated to provide students with im-
proved problem contexts for learning how statistical methods can improve their analysis
and understanding of business and economics.
The objective of this revision is to provide a strong core textbook with new features
and modifications that will provide an improved learning environment for students en-
tering a rapidly changing technical work environment. This edition has been carefully
revised to improve the clarity and completeness of explanations. This revision recognizes
the globalization of statistical study and in particular the global market for this book.
1. Improvement in clarity and relevance of discussions of the core topics included in the
book.
2. Addition of a number of large databases developed by public research agencies, busi-
nesses, and databases from the authors’ own works.

13
 3. Inclusion of a number of new exercises that introduce students to specific statistical
questions that are part of research projects.
4. Addition of a number of case studies, with both large and small sample sizes. Stu-
dents are provided the opportunity to extend their statistical understanding to the
context of research and analysis conducted by professionals. These studies include
data files obtained from on-going research studies, which reduce for the student, the
extensive work load of data collection and refinement, thus providing an emphasis
on question formulation, analysis, and reporting of results.
5. Careful revision of text and symbolic language to ensure consistent terms and defini-
tions and to remove errors that accumulated from previous revisions and production
problems.
6. Major revision of the discussion of Time Series both in terms of describing historical
patterns and in the focus on identifying the underlying structure and introductory
forecasting methods.
7. Integration of the text material, data sets, and exercises into new on-line applications
including MyMathLab Global.
8. Expansion of descriptive statistics to include percentiles, z-scores, and alternative for-
mulae to compute the sample variance and sample standard deviation.
9. Addition of a significant number of new examples based on real world data.
10. Greater emphasis on the assumptions being made when conducting various statisti-
cal procedures.
11. Reorganization of sampling concepts.
12. More detailed business-oriented examples and exercises incorporated in the analysis
of statistics.
13. Improved chapter introductions that include business examples discussed in the
chapter.
14. Good range of difficulty in the section ending exercises that permit the professor to
tailor the difficulty level to his or her course.
15. Improved suitability for both introductory and advanced statistics courses and by
both undergraduate and graduate students.
16. Decision Theory, which is covered in other business classes such as operations man-
agement or strategic management, has been moved to an online location for access by
those who are interested (www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/newbold).

This edition devotes considerable effort to providing an understanding of statistical

methods and their applications. We have avoided merely providing rules and canned
computer routines for analyzing and solving statistical problems. This edition contains
a complete discussion of methods and assumptions, including computational details ex-
pressed in clear and complete formulas. Through examples and extended chapter appli-
cations, we provide guidelines for interpreting results and explain how to determine if
additional analysis is required. The development of the many procedures included under
statistical inference and regression analysis are built on a strong development of probabil-
ity and random variables, which are a foundation for the applications presented in this
book. The foundation also includes a clear and complete discussion of descriptive statis-
tics and graphical approaches. These provide important tools for exploring and describ-
ing data that represent a process being studied.
Probability and random variables are presented with a number of important applica-
tions, which are invaluable in management decision making. These include conditional
probability and Bayesian applications that clarify decisions and show counterintuitive
results in a number of decision situations. Linear combinations of random variables are
developed in detail, with a number of applications of importance, including portfolio
applications in finance.
The authors strongly believe that students learn best when they work with chal-
lenging and relevant applications that apply the concepts presented by dedicated
teachers and the textbook. Thus the textbook has always included a number of data

14 Preface
sets obtained from various applications in the public and private sectors. In the eighth
edition we have added a number of large data sets obtained from major research proj-
ects and other sources. These data sets are used in chapter examples, exercises, and
case studies located at the end of analysis chapters. A number of exercises consider
individual analyses that are typically part of larger research projects. With this struc-
ture, students can deal with important detailed questions and can also work with case
studies that require them to identify the detailed questions that are logically part of a
larger research project. These large data sets can also be used by the teacher to develop
additional research and case study projects that are custom designed for local course
environments. The opportunity to custom design new research questions for students
is a unique part of this textbook.
One of the large data sets is the HEI Cost Data Variable Subset. This data file was
obtained from a major nutrition-research project conducted at the Economic Research
Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. These research projects provide the
basis for developing government policy and informing citizens and food producers about
ways to improve national nutrition and health. The original data were gathered in the Na-
tional Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which included in-depth interview mea-
surements of diet, health, behavior, and economic status for a large probability sample of
the U.S. population. Included in the data is the Healthy Eating Index (HEI), a measure of
diet quality developed by ERS and computed for each individual in the survey. A number
of other major data sets containing nutrition measures by country, automobile fuel con-
sumption, health data, and more are described in detail at the end of the chapters where
they are used in exercises and case studies. A complete list of the data files and where they
are used is located at the end of this preface. Data files are also shown by chapter at the
end of each chapter.
The book provides a complete and in-depth presentation of major applied topics.
An initial read of the discussion and application examples enables a student to begin
working on simple exercises, followed by challenging exercises that provide the op-
portunity to learn by doing relevant analysis applications. Chapters also include sum-
mary sections, which clearly present the key components of application tools. Many
analysts and teachers have used this book as a reference for reviewing specific appli-
cations. Once you have used this book to help learn statistical applications, you will
also find it to be a useful resource as you use statistical analysis procedures in your
future career.
A number of special applications of major procedures are included in various sec-
tions. Clearly there are more than can be used in a single course. But careful selection of
topics from the various chapters enables the teacher to design a course that provides for
the specific needs of students in the local academic program. Special examples that can
be left out or included provide a breadth of opportunities. The initial probability chapter,
Chapter 3, provides topics such as decision trees, overinvolvement ratios, and expanded
coverage of Bayesian applications, any of which might provide important material for
local courses. Confidence interval and hypothesis tests include procedures for variances
and for categorical and ordinal data. Random-variable chapters include linear combina-
tion of correlated random variables with applications to financial portfolios. Regression
applications include estimation of beta ratios in finance, dummy variables in experimen-
tal design, nonlinear regression, and many more.
As indicated here, the book has the capability of being used in a variety of courses
that provide applications for a variety of academic programs. The other benefit to the stu-
dent is that this textbook can be an ideal resource for the student’s future professional
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several years and quickly renew his or her understanding. With all the additional special
topics, that may not have been included in a first course, the book is a reference for learn-
ing important new applications. And the presentation of those new applications follows
a presentation style and uses understandings that are familiar. This reduces the time re-
quired to master new application topics.

Preface 15
 SUPPLEMENT PACKAGE
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16 Preface
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We appreciate the following colleagues who provided feedback about the book to guide
our thoughts on this revision: Valerie R. Bencivenga, University of Texas at Austin; Burak
Dolar, Augustana College; Zhimin Huang, Adelphi University; Stephen Lich-Tyler,
University of North Carolina; Tung Liu, Ball State University; Leonard Presby, William
Paterson University; Subarna K. Samanta, The College of New Jersey; Shane Sanders,
Nicholls State University; Harold Schneider, Rider University; Sean Simpson, Westchester
Community College.

Preface 17
 The authors thank Dr. Andrea Carlson, Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S.
Department of Agriculture, for her assistance in providing several major data files and
for guidance in developing appropriate research questions for exercises and case studies.
We also thank Paula Dutko and Empharim Leibtag for providing an example of complex
statistical analysis in the public sector. We also recognize the excellent work by Annie
Puciloski in finding our errors and improving the professional quality of this book.
We extend appreciation to two Stetson alumni, Richard Butcher (RELEVANT
Magazine) and Lisbeth Mendez (mortgage company), for providing real data from
their companies that we used for new examples, exercises, and case studies.
In addition, we express special thanks for continuing support from our families. Bill
Carlson especially acknowledges his best friend and wife, Charlotte, their adult children,
Andrea and Doug, and grandchildren, Ezra, Savannah, Helena, Anna, Eva Rose, and Emily.
Betty Thorne extends special thanks to her best friend and husband, Jim, and to their
family Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina, Jim, Wendy, Marius,
Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia. In addition, Betty acknowledges (in memory)
the support of her parents, Westley and Jennie Moore.
The authors acknowledge the strong foundation and tradition created by the origi-
nal author, Paul Newbold. Paul understood the importance of rigorous statistical analy-
sis and its foundations. He realized that there are some complex ideas that need to be
developed, and he worked to provide clear explanations of difficult ideas. In addition,
he realized that these ideas become useful only when used in realistic problem-solving
situations. Thus, many examples and many applied student exercises were included in
the early editions. We have worked to continue and expand this tradition in preparing a
book that meets the needs of future business leaders in the information age.
Pearson wish to thank and acknowledge the following people for their work on the
Global Edition:
Contributors
Tracey Holker, Department of Strategy and Applied Management, Coventry Business
School, United Kingdom
Stefania Paladini, Department of Strategy and Applied Management, Coventry Business
School, United Kingdom
Xavier Pierron, Department of Strategy and Applied Management, Coventry Business
School, United Kingdom
Reviewers
Rosie Ching Ju Mae, School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore
Patrick Kuok-Kun Chu, Department of Accounting and Information Management, FBA,
University of Macau, China
Mohamed Madi, Faculty of Business and Economics, United Arab Emirates University,
United Arab Emirates

18 Preface
 DATA FILE INDEX

Acme LLC Earnings per Share—Exercise 16.9 Food Nutrition Atlas—Exercises 9.66, 9.67, 9.72, 9.73,
Advertising Retail—Example 13.6, Exercise 13.38 10.33, 10.34, 10.42, 10.43, 10.46, 11.92–11.96
Advertising Revenue—Exercise 11.62 Food Prices—Exercise 16.20
Anscombe—Exercise 11.68
Apple Stock Prices—Exercise 1.70 Gender and Salary—Examples 12.13, 12.14
Automobile Fuel Consumption—Chapter 12 German Import—Exercises 12.61
Case Study German Income—Exercises 13.53
Gilotti’s Pizzeria—Examples 2.8–2.10, Exercise 2.46
Beef Veal Consumption—Exercises 13.63–13.65 Gold Price—Exercises 1.27, 16.5, 16.12
Benefits Research—Example 12.60 Grade Point Averages—Examples 1.10, 2.3,
Bigfish—Exercise 9.68 Exercises 1.73, 2.9
Births Australia—Exercise 13.17 Granola—Exercise 6.84
Bishop—Exercise 1.43
Boat Production—Example 12.12 Health Care Cost Analysis—Exercises 13.66–13.68
Bottles—Exercise 6.82 HEI Cost Data Variable Subset—Examples 1.1, 1.2,
Britain Sick Leave—Exercise 13.56 2.7, 7.5, Exercises 1.8, 1.18, 7.23, 8.34, 8.35, 9.74–
Broccoli—Example 9.4 9.78, 10.51–10.58, 11.97–11.101, 12.114–12.117,
Browser Wars—Example 1.3, Exercises 1.19, 1.25 14.17, Chapter 13 Case Study
Hourly Earnings—Exercises 16.19, 16.31
Citydatr—Examples 12.7, 12.8, 12.9, Exercises 1.46, Hours—Example 14.13
11.84, 12.31, 12.100, 12.103, 12.111, 13.22, 13.60 House Selling Price—Exercises 10.4, 12.110
Closing Stock Prices—Example 14.5 Housing Starts—Exercises 1.28, 16.1, 16.6, 16.13, 16.26
Completion Times—Example 1.9, Exercises 1.7, 2.23,
2.34, 2.53, 13.6 Improve Your Score—Example 8.2
Cotton—Chapter 12 Case Study Income—Example 14.12
Crime Study—Exercise 11.69 Income Canada—Exercise 13.16
Currency-Exchange Rates—Example 1.6, Income Clusters—Example 17.5
Exercise 1.24 Indonesia Revenue—Exercise 13.52
Industrial Production Canada—Exercise 16.18
Developing Country—Exercise 12.82 Insurance—Example 1.4
Dow Jones—Exercises 11.23, 11.29, 11.37, 11.51, 11.60 Inventory Sales—Exercises 1.50, 14.49, 16.11

Earnings per Share—Exercises 1.29, 16.2, 16.7, 16.14, Japan Imports—Exercise 13.54
16.24, 16.27
East Anglica Realty Ltd—Exercise 13.29 Macro2009—Examples 1.5, 1.7, Exercise 1.22,
Economic Activity—Exercises 11.36, 11.52, 11.53, 11.85, Macro2010—Example 13.8, Exercises 11.86, 12.105,
12.81, 12.104, 13.28 13.58, 13.61, 13.62, 16.40 – 16.43
Exchange Rate—Exercises 1.49, 14.48 Market—Exercise 13.5
Mendez Mortgage—Chapter 2 Case Study, Exercises
Fargo Electronics Earnings—Exercise 16.3 7.5, 7.35, 7.36
Fargo Electronics Sales—Exercise 16.4 Metals—Exercise 13.59
Finstad and Lie Study—Exercise 1.17 Money UK—Exercises 13.14, 13.31, 13.35
Florin—Exercises 1.68, 2.25 Motors—Exercises 12.13, 12.14, 12.48, 13.21

19
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hours you have been spending alone.” “Alone!” he exclaimed, in a
joyful tone, “I am never alone, and never weary. How should I be
either, when my days are passed in the company of innocent
animals, and time is given me to think of God!” The priest smiled
even more approvingly than before; and I remarked to him, “We are
here in Arcadia.” “But not without human sin,” said he, and pointing
to a woman at a distance, who was in the employ of the farmer’s
wife, he asked the latter how she could still have anything to do with
a well-known thief. “Eh, father,” was the comment of a woman whom
John Howard would have kissed, “starving her in idleness would not
cure her of pilfering; and between working and being well-watched,
she will soon leave her evil habits.” “You are a good Christian,” I said
to her, “be you of what community you may.” “She is a good
Catholic,” added the priest. “I am what the good God has made me,”
was the simple reply of the Walloon wife; “and my religion is this to
go on my knees when all the house is asleep, and then pray for the
whole world.” “Ay, ay,” was the chorus of those around her, “that is
true religion.” “It is a part of true religion,” interposed the priest; but I
could not help thinking that he would have done as well had he left
Marie Justine’s text without his comment. We walked together down
to the bank of the river opposite the Chateau of the young Count de
Levignon the proprietor and burgomaster of Houx. I looked up from
the modern chateau to the ruins of the vast castle where the sons of
Aymon once held barbaric state, maintained continual war, and
affected a reverence for the mother of Him who was the Prince of
Peace. The good priest seemed to guess my thoughts, for he
remarked, “We live now in better times; the church is less splendid,
and chivalry less ‘glorious,’ if not extinct; but there is a closer
brotherhood of all men—at least,” he added hesitatingly—“at least I
hope so.” “I can not remember,” said I, “a single virtue possessed by
either Aymon or his sons, except brute courage, and a rude sort of
generosity, not based on principle, but born of impulse. It is a pity
that Belgium can not boast of more perfect chevaliers than the old
proprietors of Poilvache, and that you have not a hero to match with
Bayard.” “Belgium,” was his answer, “can make such boast, and had
a hero who had finished his heroic career long before Bayard was
born. Have you never heard of ‘the Good Knight without fear and
without doubt’?” “I have heard of one without fear and without
reproach.” “That title,” he remarked, “was but a plagiarism from that
conferred on Jacques de Lelaing, by his contemporaries.” And then
he sketched the outline of the good knight’s career, and directed me
to sources where I might gather more detailed intelligence. I was
interested in what I learned, and it is because I hope also to interest
readers at home, that I venture to place before them, however
imperfectly rendered, a sketch of the career of a brave man before
the time of Bayard; one who illustrates the old saying that—

“Vixere fortes ante Agamemnona.”

Jacques de Lelaing, the good knight, without fear and without doubt,
was born in the château of Lelaing, in the first quarter of the fifteenth
century. The precise year is not known, but it was full half a century
before the birth of Bayard. He came of a noble race; that is, of a
race, the male portion of which saw more honor in slaughter than in
science. His mother was celebrated for her beauty as well as nobility.
She was wise, courteous, and débonnaire; well-mannered, and full
of all good virtues. So, at least, in nearly similar terms, wrote George
Chastellan of her, just two centuries ago.
Jacques de Lelaing was as precocious a boy as the Duke of
Wharton in his youth. At the age of seven, a priestly tutor had
perfected him in French and Latin, and the good man had so imbued
him with literary tastes that, in after life, the good knight found time to
cultivate the acquaintance of Captain Pen, as well as of Captain
Sword; and specimens of his handiwork are yet said to exist in the
libraries of Flanders and Brabant.
Jacques, however, was never a mere student, “sicklied o’er with the
pale cast of thought.” He loved manly sports; and he was yet but a
blooming youth when the “demoiseau of Clèves,” nephew of that
great Duke whom men, for no earthly reason, called Philip the Good,
carried off his young friend from the castle of Lelaing, and made of
him a squire, not of dames, but of knights, in the turbulent court of
the ducal Philip, with the benevolent qualification to his name.
The youth entered upon his career with a paternal provision which
bespoke at once the liberality and the wisdom of his father, stout
William de Lelaing. The sire bestowed upon his son four splendid
horses, a well-skilled groom, and a “gentleman of service” which, in
common phrase, means a valet, or “gentleman’s gentleman.” But the
young soldier had more than this in his brain; namely, a well-lettered
cleric, commissioned to be for ever expounding and instructing, with
a special object, to boot, that Jacques should not forget his Latin!
Excellent sire thus to care for his son! If modern fathers only might
send into barracks with their sons, when the latter first join their
regiments, reverend clerks, whose office it should be to keep their
pupils well up in their catechism, the Eton grammar, and English
orthography, what a blessing it would be to the young gentlemen and
to all acquainted with them! As it is, we have officers worse
instructed and less intelligent than the sons of the artists who make
their uniforms.
When Jacques went forth into the world, his sire gave him as good
advice as Polonius threw away on his son Laertes. The sum of it was
according to the old French maxim, “Noblesse oblige”—“Inasmuch,”
said the old man, “as you are more noble than others by birth, so,”
said he, “should you be more noble than they by virtues.” The hearty
old father added an assurance, that “few great men gained renown
for prowess and virtue who did not entertain love for some dame or
damoiselle.” This last, however, was but an equivocal assurance, for
by counselling Jacques to fall in love with “some dame or
damoiselle,” he simply advised him to do so with any man’s wife or
daughter. But it was advice commonly given to young gentlemen in
arms, and is, to this day, commonly followed by them. Jacques
bettered the paternal instruction, by falling in love with two ladies at
the same time. As ambitious youths are wont to do, he passed by
the white and pink young ladies whom he met, and paid his
addresses, with remarkable success, to two married duchesses.
Neither of these suspected that the smooth-chinned young “squire”
was swearing eternal fidelity to the other, or that this light-mailed
Macheath wooed his madiæval Polly with his pockets full of “favors,”
just bestowed on him by an unsuspecting Lucy. Thus has love ever
been made by officers and highwaymen.
But if Jacques loved two, there was not a lady at the Court of
Burgundy who did not love him. The most virtuous of them sighingly
expressed a wish that their husbands, or their lovers, were only like
him. The men hated him, while they affected to admire his grace, his
bearing, and his irresistible bravery. Jacques very complacently
accepted the love of the women and the envy of the men; and
feeling that he had something to be thankful for, he repaired to the
shrine of the Virgin at Hal, and thanked “Our Lady,” accordingly.
Now Philip the Good was good only just as Nicholas the Czar was
“good.” He had a fair face and a black heart. Philip, like Nicholas,
joined an outward display of conjugal decency with some private but
very crapulous indecency; and the Duke, like the Czar, was the
appalling liar of his day. Philip had increased the ducal territory of
Burgundy by such means as secured Finland to Muscovy, by
treachery of the most fiendish quality; and in 1442, affecting to think
that Luxembourg was in the sick condition which Nicholas described
as the condition of Turkey—when the imperial felon thought he was
making a confederate of Sir Hamilton Seymour, the Duke resolved to
seize on the territory in question, and young Jacques de Lelaing was
in an ecstacy of delight at being permitted to join in this most rascally
of expeditions.
Within a year, desolation was spread throughout a wide district. Fire
and sword did their devastating work, and the earth was swept of the
crops, dwellings, and human beings, which lay between the invaders
and Luxembourg. The city was ultimately taken by surprise, and the
good Philip delivered it up to pillage; then ensued a scene which hell
itself could not equal; and the Duke and his followers having enacted
horrors from which devils would have recoiled, they returned to
Brussels, where they were received with ten times more delight than
if they had come back from an expedition which had been
undertaken for the benefit of humanity.
What was called peace now followed, and Jacques de Lelaing,
having fleshed his maiden sword, and gained the praise of brave
men, and the love of fair women, resolved to commence a series of
provincial excursions for his own especial benefit. As, in modern
times, professors without scholars, and actors without engagements,
wander from town to town, and give lectures at “the King’s Arms,” so
Jacques de Lelaing went forth upon his way, offering to fight all
comers, in presence of kings themselves.
His first appearance on this provincial tour was at Nancy, in 1445,
where a brilliant French Court was holding joyous festival while
awaiting the coming of Suffolk, who was commissioned to escort to
England a royal bride, in the person of Margaret of Anjou. The
French knights made light of the soldier of Burgundy; but Jacques,
when announcing that he was the holder of the tournament, added
that no French knight should unhorse him, unless God and his good
lady decreed otherwise.
The latter was not likely, and he felt himself secure, doubly so, for he
rode into the lists decorated with favors, gold embroidery, and rich
jewels, the gifts of the Duchesses of Orleans and Calabria, each of
whom fondly believed that she was the sole fair one by whose bright
eyes Jacques de Lelaing swore his prettiest oath. Accordingly, there
was not a cavalier who rode against him in that passage of arms,
who left the field otherwise than with broken or bruised bones. “What
manner of man will this be?” cried they, “if, even as a lad, he lays on
so lustily?”
The lad, at the subsequent banquet, to which he was borne in
triumph, again proved that he had the capacity of a man. He was
fresh as a rose just blown; gay as a lark in early spring. The queens
of France and Sicily conversed with him by the half hour, while ladies
of lower degree gazed at him till they sighed; and sighed, knowing
full well why, and caring very much, wherefore. Charles VII. too,
treated him with especial distinction, and conferred on him the rich
prizes he had won as victor in the rough tourney of the day. But there
were other guerdons awarded him that night, which he more highly
prized. Jacques visited the Duchess of Orleans in her bower, and
carried away with him, on leaving, the richest diamond she had to
bestow. He then passed to the pavilion of the Duchess of Calabria, a
lady who, among other gifts willingly made by her, placed upon his
finger a brilliant ruby set in a gorgeous gold ring. He went to his own
bed that night as impudently happy as a modern Lifeguardsman who
is successfully fooling two ladies’ maids. His cleric had left him, and
Jacques had ceased to care for the keeping-up of his Latin, except,
perhaps, the conjugation of the imperative mood of amo. “Amemus,”
let us love, was the favorite part of the mood, and the most
frequently repeated by him and his brace of duchesses.
Sometime after this very successful first appearance, and toward the
end of 1445, our doughty squire was traversing the cathedral of
Notre Dame of Antwerp, and was on the point of cursing the singers
for their bad voices, just as one might be almost justified in doing
now, so execrable are they; he was there and thus engaged, when a
Sicilian knight, named Bonifazio, came jingling his spurs along the
transept, and looking jauntingly and impertinently as he passed by.
Jacques looked boldly at this “pretty fellow” of the time, and
remarked that he wore a golden fetter ring on his left leg, held up by
a chain of the same metal fastened to a circlet above his knee. His
shield bore the device, “Who has fair lady, let him look to her well!”
“It’s an impertinent device,” said Jacques, touching the shield, by
way of token that he would fight the bearer for carrying it. “Thou art
but a poor squire, albeit a bold man,” said the Sicilian, with the air of
one who was half inclined to chastise the Hainaulter for his
insolence. Toison d’Or, the herald, whispered in the ear of the
Hainaulter; thereupon, Jacques exclaimed, “If my master, Duke
Philip, will give me permission to fight, thou darest not deny me, on
his Grace’s territory.” Bonifazio bowed by way of assent. The
permission was gained, and the encounter came off at Ghent. The
first day’s combat was a species of preliminary struggle on
horseback, in which Jacques showed himself so worthy of the spurs
he did not yet wear, that Philip fastened them to his heels the next
day, and dubbed him Knight in solemn form. As the combatants
strode into the lists, on the second day, the Duke of Orleans
remarked to his Duchess, that Jacques was not so “gent as the
Sicilian.” The Duchess smiled, as Guinever smiled when she looked
on Sir Launcelot, while her husband, King Arthur, commented upon
him; and she said, in phrase known to all who read Spenser, “he
loves a lady gent;” and she added, with more of the smile and less of
the blush, “he is a better man than the Sicilian, and, to my thinking,
he will this day prove it.”
“We shall see,” remarked the Duke carelessly.
“We shall see,” re-echoed the Duchess, with the sunniest of smiles.
Jacques, like the chivalric “gent” that he was, did honor to the
testimony of the Duchess. The combatants went at it, like stout men.
Jacques belabored his antagonist with a staff, the Sicilian answered
by thrusting a javelin at his adversary’s uncovered face. They then
flung away their arms and their shields, and hewed at each other
with their battle-axes. Having spoiled the edges of these, and
loosened them from their handles, by battering at each other’s skulls,
they finally drew their lusty and well-tempered swords, and fought so
fiercely that the gleaming of their swiftly manœuvred blades made
them seem as if they were smiting each other with lightning. Jacques
had well-nigh dealt a mortal thrust at the Sicilian, when, at the
intervention of the Duke of Orleans, Philip the Good flung his
truncheon into the lists, and so saved the foreign knight, by ending
the fray. The Duchess reproved her consort for being over-intrusive,
but she smiled more gleesomely than before. “Whither away, Sir
Jacques?” asked she, as the latter modestly bowed on passing her
—the multitude the while rending the welkin with their approving
shout. “To the chapel in the wood,” replied Jacques, “to render
thanks for the aid vouchsafed to me by our Lady.” “Marry,” murmured
the Duchess, “we will be there too.” She thought it not less edifying
to see knight at his devotions than at beholding him in the duello. “I
am grateful to the Lady of Good Succor,” said Jacques. “And thou
doest right loyally,” was the comment of the Duchess.
The victory of the Belgian cavalier over the Sicilian gained for him
the distinctive name which he never lost, that of “the Good Knight.”
To maintain it, he proceeded to travel from court to court, as pugilists
itinerate it from fair to fair, to exhibit prowess and to gather praise.
The minor pugilist looks to pence as well as praise, and the ancient
knight had an eye to profit also—he invariably carried off the horse,
armor, and jewels of the vanquished. As Sir Jacques deemed
himself invincible, he looked to the realization of a lucrative tour. “Go
on thy way, with God’s blessing,” exclaimed his sire. “Go on thy way,
Jacques,” murmured his mother through her tears; “thou wilt find
ointment in thy valise, to cure all bruises. Heaven send thee a
surgeon, and thou break thy bones.”
Across the French frontier merrily rode Sir Jacques, followed by his
squire, and attended by his page. From his left arm hung a
splendidly-wrought helmet, by a chain of gold—the prize offered by
him to any one who could overcome him in single combat. Jacques
announced that, in addition, he would give a diamond to any lady or
demoiselle indicated to him by his conqueror. He stipulated that
whichever combatant first dropped his axe, he should bestow a
bracelet upon his adversary; and Jacques would only fight upon the
condition that neither knight should be fastened in his saddle—a
regulation which I should never think of seeing insisted upon
anywhere, except by equestrian aldermen when they amble on Mr.
Batty’s horses, to meet the Sovereign at Temple Bar. For the rest
Jacques put his trust in God, and relied upon the strength given him
in the love of “the fair lady who had more power over him than aught
besides throughout the entire world.” A hundred ladies fair, matrons
and maids, who heard of this well-advertised confidence, did not
hesitate to exclaim, “Delicious fellow! He means me!”
It was the proud boast of Jacques, that he traversed the capital, and
the provincial cities of France, without meeting with a knight who
would accept his defiance. It would be more correct to say—a knight
who could take up his challenge. Charles VII. forbade his chivalry
from encountering the fierce Hainaulter anywhere but at the festive
board. In the South of France, then held by the English, he met with
the same civility; and he rode fairly into Spain, his lance in rest,
before his onward career was checked by the presence of an
adversary. That adversary was Don Diego de Guzman, Grand-
master of Calatrava, and, although he knew it not, ancestor to a
future Empress of the French. The Don met the Belgian on the
borders of Castile, and accepted his published challenge out of mere
love, as the one silly fellow said of the other, out of mere love for his
“très aimée dame.” The “dames” of those days enjoyed nothing so
much as seeing the gentlemen thwack each other; and considering
what a worthless set these latter, for the most part, were, the ladies
had logically comic reasons to support their argument.
It was necessary, however, for Don Diego to obtain the consent of
his sovereign to encounter in mortal combat a knight of the
household of Burgundy, then in alliance with Spain. The Sovereign
was absent from the country, and while an answer was being
expected from him to the application duly made, Jacques, at the
head of a most splendid retinue, trotted leisurely into Portugal, to
tempt the Lusitanian knights to set their lances against him. He rode
forward to the capital, and was greeted by the way, as if he had been
as illustrious a monarch as his ducal master. It was one ovation, from
the frontier to Lisbon, where he was welcomed by the most crowded
of royal balls, at which the King (Alphonso XV.) invited him to foot it
with the Queen. The King, however, was but an indifferent master of
the ceremonies. The late Mr. Simpson of Vauxhall, or the illustrious
Baron Nathan of Rosherville, would never have dreamed of taking
the lady to introduce her to the gentleman. This uncourteous process
was, however, the one followed by Alphonso, who taking his consort
by the hand, led her to Sire Jacques, and bad him tread a measure
with her. Messire Jacques consented, and there was more than
enough of dancing, and feasting, and pleasure-seeking, but no
fighting. Lisbon was as dull to the Belgian as Donnybrook Fair
without a skrimmage used to be to all its lively habitués. “I have had
a turn with the Queen,” said Jacques, “let me now have a tourney
with your captains.” “Burgundy is my good friend,” answered the
King—and he was right in a double sense, for Burgundy was as dear
to him as Champagne is to the Czar’s valet, Frederick William, who
resides at Berlin. “Burgundy is our good friend,” answered Alphonso,
“and Heaven forbid that a knight from such a court should be roughly
treated by any knights at mine.” “By St. George! I defy them!”
exclaimed Jacques. “And even so let it rest,” said the monarch; “ride
back to Castile, and do thy worst upon the hard ribs of the Guzman.”
Jacques adopted the suggestion; and on the 3d of February, 1447,
there was not a bed in Valladolid to be had “for love or money;” so
crowded was that strong-smelling city with stronger-smelling
Spaniards, whose curiosity was even stronger than the odors they
distilled, to witness the “set-to” between the Belgian Chicken and the
Castile Shaver!
I will not detail the preliminary ceremonies, the processions to the
field, the entry of the sovereigns, the fluttering of the ladies, the
excitement of the knights, and the eagerness of the countless
multitude. Jacques was on the ground by ten o’clock, where Guzman
kept him waiting till three; and then the latter came with an axe so
much longer than that wielded by the Belgian, that even the Spanish
umpires forbade its being employed. Don Diego’s own “godfather”
for the occasion was almost minded to thump him with the handle;
and there was all the trouble in the world to induce him to select
another. This being effected, each knight was conducted to his tent,
with the understanding that he was not to issue therefrom until the
clarions had thrice sounded by way of signal. At the very first blast,
however, out rushed the Guzman, looking as ferocious as a stage
Richard who has killed five false Richmonds, and is anxiously
inquiring for the real one wherewith to finish the half-dozen. The too
volatile Don was beckoned back by the chief herald as haughtily as
when the sempiternal Widdicombe points out with his whip some
obvious duty to be performed by Mr. Merryman. Diego retired
muttering, but he again appeared in front of his tent at the second
note of summons from the trumpet, and only withdrew after the king
had assailed him “with an ugly word.” At the third “flourish,” the two
champions flew at each other, battle-axe in hand. With this weapon
they hammered at each other’s head, until there was little sense left
in either of them. At length, Diego was disarmed; then ensued a
contest made up partly of wrestling and partly of boxing; finally, they
had recourse to their swords, when the king, perceiving that murder
was likely to ensue, to one or both, threw his bâton into the lists, put
an end to the combat, and refused permission to the adversaries to
continue the struggle on horseback. The antagonists shook hands,
and the people shouted. The Spanish knight is deemed, by Belgian
chroniclers, as having come off “second best” in the struggle; but it is
also clear that Diego de Guzman was by far the “toughest customer”
that ever confronted Jacques de Lelaing. There was some jealousy
on the part of the Iberian, but his behavior was, altogether, marked
by generosity. He praised the prowess of Jacques, and presented
him with an Andalusian horse covered with the richest trappings; and
de Lelaing, as unwilling to be outdone in liberality as in fight, sent to
Guzman, by a herald, a magnificent charger, with coverings of blue
velvet embroidered in gold, and a saddle of violet velvet, to be
seated in which, was of itself a luxury. Much dancing at court
followed; and finally, the “good knight” left Valladolid loaded with gifts
from the king, praises from men, and love from the ladies, who made
surrender of more hearts than he had time to accept.
In Navarre and in Aragon he challenged all comers, but in vain.
Swords slept in scabbards, and battle-axes hung quietly from
saddle-bows, and there was more feasting than fighting. At length
Jacques, after passing through Perpignan and Narbonne, arrived at
Montpelier, where he became the guest of the famous Jacques
Cœur, the silversmith and banker of Charles VII. Old Cœur was a
hearty old host, for he offered the knight any amount of money he
would honor him by accepting; and he intimated that if De Lelaing, in
the course of his travels had found it necessary to pawn any of his
plate or jewelry, he (Jacques Cœur) would redeem it free of
expense. “My good master, the Duke of Burgundy,” replied the errant
chevalier, “provides all that is necessary for me, and allows me to
want for nothing;” and thereupon he went on his way to the court of
Burgundy, where he was received with more honor than if he had
been executing a mission for the especial benefit of humanity.
But these honors were little, compared with the rejoicings which took
place when the “good knight” revisited his native château, and the
parents who therein resided. His sire hugged him till his armor was
warm again; and his lady mother walked about the halls in a state of
ecstacy and thanksgiving. Finally, the rafters shook at the efforts of
the joyous dancers, and many a judicious matron instructed her
daughter how Jacques, who subdued the stoutest knights, might be
himself subdued by the very gentlest of ladies. The instruction was
given in vain. The good chevalier made love alike to young widows,
wives, and daughters, and having broken more hearts than he ever
broke lances, he suddenly left home in search of new adventures.
Great was the astonishment, and that altogether of a pleasurable
sort, when the herald Charolais appeared at the Scottish court in
July, 1449, and delivered a challenge from Jacques to the whole of
the Douglases. It was accepted in their name by James Douglas, the
brother of the lieutenant-general of the kingdom; and in December of
the year last named, Jacques, with a retinue of fighting uncles,
cousins, and friends, embarked at Ecluse and set sail for Caledonia.
The party were more battered about by the sea than ever they had
been by enemy on land; and when they arrived at Leith, they looked
so “shaky,” were so pale and haggard, and had so little of a
“slashing” look, wrapped up as they were in surcoats and comforters,
that the Scottish cavaliers, observing the draggled condition of the
strangers and of the plumes which seemed to be moulting from their
helmets, fairly asked them what motive induced them to come so far
in so sorry a plight, for the mere sake of getting bruised by knights
ashore after having been tossed about, sick and sorry, during whole
nights at sea. When the northern cavaliers heard that honor and not
profit had moved the Belgian company, they marvelled much thereat,
but prepared themselves, nevertheless, to meet the new-comers in
dread encounter at Stirling.
James II. presided at the bloody fray, in which three fought against
three. What the Scottish chroniclers say of the struggle, I can not
learn, but the Belgian historians describe their champions as having
been eminently victorious with every arm; and, according to them,
the Douglases were not only soundly drubbed, but took their beating
with considerable sulkiness. But there is much poetry in Belgian
history, and probably the doughty Douglas party may not have been
so thoroughly worsted as the pleasant chroniclers in question
describe them to have been. No doubt the conquerors behaved well,
as we know “les braves Belges” have never failed to do, if history
may be credited. However this may be, Jacques and his friends
hurried from Scotland, appeared at London before the meek
Lancastrian king, Henry VI.; and as the latter would not license his
knights to meet the Burgundians in the lists, the foreign fighting
gentlemen had their passports visé, and taking passage in the fast
sailer “Flower of Hainault,” duly arrived at home, where they were
hailed with enthusiasm.
Jacques had short space wherein to breathe. An English knight,
named Thomas Karr, speedily appeared at the court of Philip the
Duke, and challenged De Lelaing, for the honor of old England. This
affair caused a great sensation, and the lists were dressed in a field
near Bruges. The English knight was the heavier man in flesh and
armor, but Jacques, of course, was the favorite. Dire was the conflict.
The adversaries strove to fell each other with their axes, as butchers
do oxen. Karr paralyzed, if he did not break, the arm of Jacques; but
the Belgian, dropping his axe, closed with his foe, and after a
struggle, fell with and upon him. Karr was required, as a defeated
man, to carry the gauntlet of the victor to the lady pointed out by him.
But obstinate Tom Karr protested against this, as he had only fallen
on his elbow. The umpires declared that he had had a full fall, “head,
belly, arms, and legs;” Jacques, however, was generous and would
not insist. On the contrary, adverting to the fact that he had himself
been the first to drop his own axe, he presented Karr with a rich
diamond, as the forfeit due by him who first lost a weapon in the
combat.
Karr had terribly wounded Jacques, and the wound of the latter took
long to cure. The Duke Philip hastened his convalescence by
naming him counsellor and chamberlain; and as soon as the man so
honored by his master, had recovered from his wounds, he repaired
to Chalons on Saone, where he opened a “tourney,” which was
talked of in the country for many a long year afterward. Jacques had
vowed that he would appear in the closed lists thirty times before he
had attained his thirtieth year; and this tourney at Chalons was held
by him against all comers, in order the better to enable him to fulfil
his vow. The detail would be tedious; suffice it to say that the affair
was of barbarian magnificence, and that knights smashed one
another’s limbs, for personal honor, ladies’ love, and the glory of Our
Lady in Tears! Rich prizes were awarded to the victors, as rich
forfeits were exacted from the vanquished, and there was not only a
sea of good blood spilt in this splendidly atrocious fray, but as much
bad blood made as there was good blood shed. But then there was
empty honor acquired, a frail sort of affection gained, and an
impalpable glory added to the non-existent crown of an imaginary
Venus Victrix, decorated with the name of Our Lady of Tears! What
more could true knights desire? Chivalry was satisfied; and
commonplace men, with only common sense to direct them, had to
look on in admiring silence, at risk of being cudgelled if they dared to
speak out.
Jacques was now at the height of his renown. He was “the good
knight without fear and without doubt;” and Duke Philip placed the
last rose in his chaplet of honor, by creating him a knight of the
illustrious order of the Golden Fleece. Thus distinguished, he rode
about Europe, inviting adversaries to measure swords with him, and
meeting with none willing to accept the invitation. In 1451 he was the
embassador of Burgundy at Rome, charged to negotiate a project of
crusade against the Turks. M. Alexander Henne, the author of the
best compendium, gathered from the chronicles, of the deeds of
Jacques de Lelaing—says that after the knight’s mission to Rome,
he appeared at a passage of arms held in the park at Brussels, in
honor of the Duke of Burgundy’s son, the Count of Charolais, then
eighteen years of age, and about to mate his first appearance in the
lists. The Duchess, tender of her son as the Dowager Czarina who
kept her boys at home, and had not a tear for other mothers, whose
children have been bloodily sacrificed to the savage ambition of
Nicholas—the Duchess careful of the young Count, was desirous
that he should make essay before he appeared in the lists. Jacques
de Lelaing was accordingly selected to run a lance with him. “Three
days before the fete, the Duke, the Duchess, and the Court repaired
to the park of Brussels, where the trial was to be made. In the first
onset, the Count de Charolais shattered his lance against the shield
of Jacques, who raised his own weapon, and passed without
touching his adversary. The Duke perceived that the good knight had
spared his young adversary; he was displeased thereat, and sent
Jacques word that if he intended to continue the same course, he
would do well to meddle no further in the matter. Other lances were
then brought, and Jacques, running straight against the Count, both
lances flew into splinters. At this incident, the Duchess, in her turn,
gave expression to her discontent; but the Duke only laughed; and
thus mother and father were of different opinions; the one desiring a
fair trial, the other security for her son.” On the day of the great
tourney, there were assembled, with the multitude, on the great
square at Brussels, not less than two hundred and twenty-five
princes, barons, knights, and squires. Some of the noblest of these
broke a lance with, and perhaps the limbs of, their adversaries. The
Count de Charolais broke eighteen lances on that day, and he
carried off the the prize, which was conferred upon him by the ladies.
This was the last of the show-fights in which Jacques de Lelaing
exhibited himself. The bloodier conflicts in which he was
subsequently engaged, were far less to his credit. They formed a
part of the savage war which the despotic Duke and the nobles
carried on against the free and opulent cities, whose spirit of liberty
was an object of hatred, and whose wealth was an object of
covetous desire, to the Duke and his body of gentleman-like
assassins. Many a fair town was devastated by the Duke and his
followers, who affected to be inspired by religious feelings, a desire
for peace, and a disinclination to make conquests. Whereby it may
be seen that the late Czar was only a Burgundian duke enlarged,
impelled by much the same principle, and addicted to a similar sort
of veracity. It was a time of unmitigated horrors, when crimes enough
were committed by the nobles to render the name of aristocracy for
ever execrable throughout Belgium; and atrocities were practised by
the enraged commons, sufficient to insure, for the plebeians, the
undying hatred of their patrician oppressors. There was no respect
on either side for age, sex, or condition. The people, of every
degree, were transformed into the worst of fiends—slaying, burning,
violating, and plundering; and turning from their accursed work to
kneel at the shrine of that Mary whose blessed Son was the Prince
of Peace. Each side slaughtered, hung, or drowned its prisoners; but
the nobles gave the provocation by first setting the example, and the
commons were not cruel till the nobility showed itself alike destitute
of honor and of mercy. The arms of the popular party were nerved by
the infamy of their adversaries, but many an innocent man on either
side was condemned to suffer, undeservedly, for the sins of others.
The greatest efforts were made against the people of the district and
city of Ghent, but all Flanders sympathized with them in a war which
was considered national. In the struggle, the Duke won no victory
over the people for which the latter did not compel him to pay a
frightful price; he was heartily sick of the war before it was half
concluded—even when his banner was being most successfully
upheld by the strong arm and slender scruples of Jacques de
Lelaing.
The good knight was however, it must be confessed, among the few
—if he were not the only one—of the betterminded nobles. He had
been commissioned by the Duke to set fire to the Abbey of
Eenaeme, and he obeyed without hesitation, and yet with reluctance.
He destroyed the religious edifice with all which it contained, and
which could be made to burn; but having thus performed his duty as
a soldier, he forthwith accomplished his equally bounden duty, as a
Christian—and, after paying for three masses, at which he devoutly
assisted, he confessed himself to a predicant friar, “making a case of
conscience,” says one of his biographers, “of having, out of respect
for discipline, committed an act which the uprightness of his heart
compelled him to condemn as criminal.” Never was there a better
illustration of that so-called diverse condition of things which is said
to represent a distinction without a difference.
The repentance of Jacques de Lelaing came, it is hoped, in time. He
did well, at all events, not to defer it any longer, for he was soon on
the threshold of that world where faith ceases and belief begins. He
was engaged, although badly wounded, in inspecting the siege-
works in the front of the Chateau de Pouckes, that Flemish cradle of
the Pooks settled in England. It was on a June afternoon of the year
1453, that Jacques, with a crowd of nobles half-encircling him, rode
out, in spite of the protest of his doctors (because, as he said, if he
were to remain doing nothing he should certainly die), in order that
he might have something to do. There was a famous piece of
artillery on the Burgundian side, which was sorely troublesome to the
stout little band that was defending Pouckes. It was called the
“Shepherdess,” but never did shepherdess speak with so
thundering-unlovely a voice, or fling her favors about her with such
dire destruction to those upon whom they were showered. Jacques
drew up behind the manteau of this cannon, to watch (like our gallant
seamen at Sebastopol) the effects of the shot discharged from it. At
the same moment a stone projectile, discharged from a culverin by
the hand of a young artilleryman of Ghent, who was known as the
son of Henry the Blindman, struck Jacques on the forehead, carrying
away the upper part of his head, and stretched him dead upon the
field. A Carmelite brother rushed up to him to offer the succor and
consolation of religion, but it was too late. Jacques had sighed out
his last breath, and the friar decently folded the dead warrior’s arms
over his breast. A mournful troop carried the body back to the camp.
The hero of his day died in harness. He had virtues that fitted him for
a more refined, a more honest, in short, a more Christian, period.
These he exercised whenever he could find opportunity, but such
opportunity was rare. He lived at a period when, as M. de Sismondi
has remarked, “Knights thought of nothing but equalling the Rolands
and Olivers of the days of Charlemagne, by the destruction of the
vile canaille”—a sort of pastime which has been recently
recommended in our senate, although the days of chivalry be gone.
The noble comrades of Jacques, as M. Henne observes,
acknowledged but one species of supreme pleasure and glory, which
consisted in making flow abundantly the blood of villains—or, as they
are now called, the lower orders. But in truth the modern “villain” or
the low-class man is not exclusively to be found in the ranks which
have had such names applied to them. As Bosquier-Gavaudan used
so joyously to sing, some thirty years ago, in the Ermite de St.
Avelle:—

“Les gens de bien

Sont souvent des gens de rien;
Et les gens de rien
Sont souvent des gens de bien!”

For a knight, Jacques was really a respectable man, and so

disgusted with his butcher-like occupation, that, just before his death,
he had resolved to surrender his estate to a younger brother, and,
since fate had made of him a licensed murderer, to henceforth
murder none but eastern infidels—to slay whom was held to be more
of a virtue than a sin. Let us add of him, that he was too honest to
earn a reputation by being compassionate to half-a-dozen helpless
foes, after directing his men to slaughter a score of the mutilated and
defenceless enemy. Jacques de Lelaing would sooner have sent his
dagger up to the hilt in his own heart, than have violated the
safeguard of a flag of truce. Such days and such doings of chivalry
are not those most agreeable to Russian chivalry. Witness Odessa,
where the pious governor directed the fire on a flag of truce which he
swore he could not see; and witness the massacre of Hango, the
assassins concerned in which exploit were defended by their worthy
superior De Berg.
Jacques de Lelaing, however, it must not be forgotten, fell in a most
unworthy cause—that of a despot armed against free people. His
excellent master swore to avenge him; and he kept his word. When
the Château de Pouckes was compelled to surrender, Philip the
Good ordered every one found alive in it to be hung from the walls.
He made exception only of a priest or two, one soldier afflicted with
what was called leprosy, but which has now another name in the
catalogue of avenging maladies, and a couple of boys. It was
precisely one of these lads who had, by his well-laid shot, slain “the
good knight without fear and without doubt;” but Philip was not aware
of this till the lad was far beyond his reach, and in safety at Ghent.
Those who may be curious to know the course taken by the war until
it was terminated by the treaty of Lille, are recommended to study
the Chronicles of De Lettenhooe, of Olivier de la Marche, of
Chastellain, and Du Clery. I had no intention, at setting out, to paint a
battle-piece, but simply to sketch a single figure. My task is done,
however imperfectly, and, as old chroniclers were wont to say, May
Heaven bless the gentle reader, and send pistoles and abounding
grace to the unworthy author.
Such is the history of an individual; let us now trace the fortunes of a
knightly house. The story of the Guises belongs entirely to chivalry
and statesmanship.
 THE FORTUNES OF A KNIGHTLY FAMILY.
“This deals with nobler knights and monarchs,
Full of great fears, great hopes, great enterprises.”
Antony Brewer, “Lingua.”

In the pleasant spring-time of the year 1506, a little boy, mounted on

a mule, and accompanied by a serving man on foot, crossed over
the frontier from Lorraine into France. The boy was a pretty child,
some ten years old. He was soberly clad, but a merry heart beat
under his gray jerkin; and his spirits were as light as the feather in
his bonnet. The servant who walked at his side was a simple yet
faithful follower of his house; but there was no more speculation in
his face than there was in that of the mule. Nothing could have
looked more harmless and innocent than the trio in question; and yet
the whole—joyous child, plodding servitor, and the mule whose bells
rang music as he trod—formed one of the most remarkable
invasions of which the kingdom of France has ever been the victim.
The boy was the fifth child of René and Philippa de Gueldres, the
ducal sovereigns of Lorraine. This duchy, a portion of the old
kingdom of Lotharingia—in disputes for the possession of which the
children of Charlemagne had shed rivers of blood—had maintained
its independence, despite the repeated attempts of Germany and
France to reduce it to subjection. At the opening of the sixteenth
century, it had seen a legal succession of sovereign and
independent masters during seven centuries. The reigning duke was
René, the second of that name. He had acquired estates in France,
and he had inherited the hatred of Lorraine to the Capetian race
which had dethroned the heirs of Charlemagne. It was for this double
reason that he unostentatiously sent into the kingdom of France one
of his sons, a boy of fair promise. The mission of the yet
unconscious child was to increase the territorial possessions of his
family within the French dominions, and ultimately to rule both
Church and State—if not from the throne, why then from behind it.
The merry boy proved himself in course of time to be no unfitting
instrument for this especial purpose. He was brought up at the
French court, studied chivalry, and practised passages of arms with
French knights; was the first up at réveillée, the last at a feast, the
most devout at mass, and the most winning in ladies’ bower. The
princes of the blood loved him, and so did the princesses. The army
hailed him with delight; and the church beheld in him and his brother,
Cardinal John, two of those champions whom it records with
gladness, and canonizes with alacrity.
Such was Claude of Lorraine, who won the heart and lands of
Antoinette de Bourbon, and who received from Francis I. not only
letters of naturalization, but the title of Duke of Guise. The locality so
named is in Picardy. It had fallen to the house of Lorraine by
marriage, and the dignity of Count which accompanied it was now
changed for that of Duke. It was not long before Claude made the
title famous. The sword of Guise was never from his grasp, and its
point was unceasingly directed against the enemies of his new
country. He shed his own blood, and spilled that of others, with a
ferocious joy. Francis saw in him the warmest of his friends and the
bravest of his soldiers. His bravery helped to the glory that was
reaped at Marignan, at Fontarabia, and in Picardy. Against internal
revolt or foreign invasion he was equally irresistible. His sword drove
back the Imperialists of Germany within their own frontier; and when
on the night of Pavia the warriors of France sat weeping like girls
amid the wide ruin around them, his heart alone throbbed with
hopeful impulses, and his mind only was filled with bright visions of
victories to come.
These came indeed, but they were sometimes triumphs that earned
for him an immortality of infamy. The crest of his house was a double
cross, and this device, though it was no emblem of the intensity of
religion felt by these who bore it, was significant of the double
sanguinary zeal of the family—a zeal employed solely for selfish
ends. The apostolic reformers of France were, at this period, in a
position of some power. Their preachers were in the pulpit, and their
people in the field. They heard the gospel leaning on their swords;