Mosisa et al.

Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Environmental Systems

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-024-00332-z
Research

RESEARCH Open Access

Current and future distribution of Eucalyptus

globulus under changing climate in Ethiopia:
implications for forest management
Gemechis B. Mosisa1*, Nega Tassie2 and Motuma Adula3

Abstract
Eucalyptus globulus is a species endemic to southeastern Australia. It has naturalized non-native ranges in other
parts of Australia, Europe, Africa, and the western United States. This study is the first of its kind in Ethiopia to
model and map the spatiotemporal distribution of the species using species distribution models (SDMs). A total
of 874 occurrence records were used from the online Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database
and field observation. Three environmental variables, including terrain, climate, and soil were used to predict
the species’ distribution. The terrain, climate, and soil raster grids were resampled to a 200-meter resolution. The
Global Circulation Model (GCM) HadGEM3-GC3.1 was used to extract future climate data. This GCM has a good
match between the atmospheric and oceanic components showing little drift in its surface climate. Besides, it
has the best coverage of Africa. Three climate change scenarios (SSPs 1-2.6, SSPs 2-4.5, and SSPs 5-8.5) were used
for predicting suitable habitat of the species. The jackknife test was chosen to assess the importance of each
environmental predictor variable. The model’s performance was evaluated using the Area under the Curve (AUC)
of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The model had excellent predictive performance with an
average AUC of 0.94. Altitude, rooting conditions, slope, dry-month precipitation, and temperature seasonality are
the most important environmental factors in shaping E. globulus distribution. Ethiopian highlands are predicted to
be more suitable to the species, but the increase in temperature seasonality may reduce suitable habitat under the
high-forcing climate change scenario. Climate change is expected to create more suitable habitats for eucalyptus
in the future which may encourage plantations in potential distribution areas. Consequently, ensuring long-term
forest health necessitates robust management systems prioritizing native trees and responsible grower or farmer
practices.
Keywords Climate change, Distribution, Eucalyptus globulus, Forest management, Maxent model

*Correspondence:
Gemechis B. Mosisa
[email protected]
1
Department of Ecotourism and Biodiversity Conservation, College of
Natural Resource and Agricultural Economics, Mattu University, Bedele,
Ethiopia
2
Department of Biology, College of Science, Bahir Dar University, Bahir
Dar, Ethiopia
3
SPIR - II / RFSA, CARE Ethiopia (HO), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 2 of 11

Introduction distribution of Eucalyptus trees have been conducted in

Climate change can create suitable niches for some spe- several regions of Ethiopia, including the highlands, but
cies and challenges for others, leading to changes in spe- rarely nationwide.
cies range and community composition (Harley 2011). By combining information on habitat suitability and
Species with limited dispersal abilities are the most vul- climate change, we can better understand the challenges
nerable to rapid environmental changes (Araújo and that species face and how they may be able to adapt or
Pearson 2005). The position of a species within its cli- factors contributing to their success (Suarez-seoane et al.
matic niche is a strong predictor of its sensitivity to cli- 2004). This study aimed to identify overriding ecologi-
mate change, even though other factors such as dispersal cal factors that help the success of Eucalyptus in Ethiopia
ability and genetic diversity play a role (Pérez et al. 2019). as non-native plant species; assess the present distribu-
In other words, understanding how population growth tion status; and predict areas that are likely to become
affects the range of climatic conditions that a species suitable for the Eucalyptus in the future under different
can tolerate is critical for understanding how species will climate scenarios. The potential role of climate change
respond to climate change (Liang et al. 2021; Ralston et in the distribution of Eucalyptus in Ethiopia is a critical
al. 2016; Valladares et al. 2014). question that has not been adequately addressed in the
Eucalyptus globulus (hereafter referred to as Eucalyp- literature. Thus, the study intends to fill this gap by devel-
tus) is well-suited for a wide range of climates and soils. oping a predictive model of Eucalyptus distribution in
The species is widely distributed due to its ability to toler- Ethiopia under changing climate. The results of this study
ate extreme conditions under severe conditions (Davidso, will therefore have important implications for the man-
1989; Paton 1980). Species can adapt to climate change agement of Eucalyptus plantations in Ethiopia and for the
quickly by evolving new traits or changing their behavior broader understanding of the impacts of climate change
(Fensham et al. 2014). Climate change has both inhibit- on forest ecosystems.
ing and contributing effects on Eucalyptus growth and
distribution. The species in tropical areas grow best when Materials and methods
there is a combination of water scarcity and high tem- Study area description
peratures but, in subtropical areas, its growth is more Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous nation (after
affected by low winter temperatures (Felipe et al. 2020). Nigeria) with about 110 million people, offers a trea-
The current trend of expanding Eucalyptus tree plan- sure trove of cultural and geographic wonders. Ethio-
tations without considering the environmental impacts pia located between 03°N and 15°N latitude, and 33°E
is a cause for concern. The changes in land use coupled and 48°E longitude (Fig. 1), with a total land area of
with climate change are leading to the expansion of Euca- 1,104,300 km². The country’s elevation ranges from
lyptus tree woodlots (Bajigo et al. 2019; Luzar 2007). The 116 m below sea level to 4,620 m above sea level (Fig. 1).
Eucalypts plantation in Ethiopia has extremely increased This diversity of altitudes has led to a wide variety of eco-
over the last decades. However, early Eucalyptus plant- systems, from the arid deserts of the Danakil Depression
ings in Ethiopia were not systematically evaluated, so to the lush forests of the Western Highlands.
there is no evidence that Eucalyptus was the best spe- Eucalyptus is a diverse genus with over 100 species in
cies to plant (Pohjonen and Pukkala 1990). The species is Africa, of which about 55 are cultivated in Ethiopia (Friis
often planted for its high biotic potential, but consumes 1995). Since introduced to the area, Eucalyptus globu-
more water than other species (Demel 2000). The expan- lus is a successful tree in Ethiopian highland climates
sion of Eucalyptus in Ethiopia is increasing at alarming and soil conditions because it coppices vigorously, is not
rate intentionally or unintentionally by farmers, govern- palatable to livestock, and is suitable for fuel wood and
ment, and landowners covering farmlands, homesteads, construction (Pohjonen and Pukkala 1990). Eucalyptus
and marginal lands, putting the future of biodiversity plantations cover an estimated 506,000 hectares of land
and water resources at risk (Bajigo et al. 2019; Gizachew in Ethiopia (Birhanu and Kumsa 2018).
2017; Jenbere et al. 2012; Yitaferu et al. 2013). Environ-
mentalists are concerned about the potential negative Data sources and preprocessing
impacts of Eucalyptus plantations on the environment, This study employed four distinct data types for vari-
particularly on water resources (Jaleta et al. 2016). In ous applications including: (a) point occurrence data
Ethiopia, several studies have been conducted in vari- were used to fit the species distribution model (b) pres-
ous aspects of Eucalyptus trees particularly on E. globu- ent environmental variables were used to develop and
lus (Abebe and Tadesse 2006; Demel 2000; FAO 2011; map species distribution models (c) future climatic data
Jaleta et al. 2016; Pohjonen and Pukkala 1990; Tesfaw under different emission scenarios were used to predict
et al. 2023; Zerga 2015), our focal species, but mostly the potential impact of climate change on species dis-
restricted to its hotspots, the highlands. Studies on the tribution, and (d) land use spatial data was used to track
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 3 of 11

Fig. 1 Localities along elevation gradient

changes in Eucalyptus cover over time and to evaluate standardized to remove records that were repeated. After
the effects of these changes on the composition and func- cleaning and geo-referencing, 874 distribution localities
tioning of natural ecosystems. were available for use in the subsequent analyse.

Species occurrence records Predictor variables

Eucalyptus species records were collected from online Climate change is expected to have a complex effect on
databases and on-site surveys. We compiled records of species, so it is important to include intricate ecological
Eucalyptus occurrences from the online Global Biodiver- variables in species distribution models (Andriamasima-
sity Information Facility (GBIF) (www.gbif.org) database, nana and Cameron 2013). Three environmental variables
and from field observation point data record. Through were considered for their potential to predict the spe-
a comprehensive field survey conducted across Ethio- cies distribution: terrain, climate, and soil. After careful
pia, focusing on state plantation forest areas and farm- consideration, 19 variables were selected for the analysis
lands, researchers meticulously recorded the presence (Table 1). Three topographic variables, six edaphic fac-
data of the target species. Employing a systematic tran- tors, and two potential incoming solar radiation variables
sect approach, we traversed varied landscapes, precisely were used to model the distribution of the species. A
recording geographic coordinates (longitude, latitude) total of 19 bioclimatic variables were acquired, but only
and elevation of presence samples at 100-meter inter- eight were found to be significant to species distribution
vals using a handheld Global Positioning System (GPS). after multi-collinearity testing using Pearson correlation
Although the target species was abundant between 1200 co-efficient (r > 0.8), and were therefore retained for fur-
and 2640 m across the study area, our understanding of ther analysis. The raster grids of terrain, climate, and soil
its distribution above this range remains limited due to were resampled using ArcGIS 10.8 to a 200-meter resolu-
the inaccessibility of higher mountains. While state plan- tion to ensure that all of the data were consistent. These
tation forests offered a controlled environment for sam- variables include historical climate data from 1970 to
pling, the majority of presence records were unexpectedly 2000 and future climate data from 2021 to 2040 (2030)
clustered around homesteads, roadsides, and sacred sites. and from 2041 to 2060 (2050). The model structural
However, the locality record data was taken following the framework is shown in Fig. 2.
transect regardless of the level of patchiness or clustering
of the species. Finally, the species occurrence data were
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 4 of 11

Table 1 Environmental variables considered for the distribution et al. 2018; Williams et al. 2021), and its best coverage of
model Africa (Davis et al. 2012). This GCM has a good match
Category Short Long Unit Source between the atmospheric and oceanic components; and
name name
has been run to produce simulations for many hun-
Terrain elevation Elevation m www.worldclim.org
dred years, showing little drift in its surface climate. The
slope Slope m/m www.fao.org
HadGEM3-GC3.1 was used to extract future climate
aspect Aspect Degree
data from the WorldClim2.1 database. The prediction
Soil sq1 Nutrient kg/ha www.fao.org
availability of species habitat suitability and distribution took into
sq2 Nutrient meq/100 g account three of four climate change scenarios (Table 2).
retention The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
capacity launched the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
sq3 Rooting m in 2010, which are a more comprehensive set of future
conditions climate change scenarios than those used in past stud-
sq5 Excess salts dS/m ies. SSPs have been used to quantify the relationship
sq6 Toxicity
between climate change and socio-economic develop-
sq7 Workability
ment pathways.
Solar srad1 Direct kWh/m2 www.globalsolarat-
radiation normal las.info
irradiation Maximum entropy modeling
srad2 Global kWh/m2 The potential distribution of eucalyptus in Ethiopia has
horizontal not yet been studied using SDMs. The MaxEnt model
irradiation was deemed the optimal technique for modeling the suit-
Climate bio2 Mean diur- °C www.worldclim.org able habitat of eucalypts in Ethiopia. This non-paramet-
nal range ric classification method is popular because it can use
bio3 Isothemality °C presence-only data from random subsets of predicted
bio4 Tem- °C
and predictor variables (Fitzpatrick et al. 2013; Phillips et
perature
seasonality al. 2006). The method has therefore been recommended
bio7 Tempera- °C for use in ecological and species distribution modeling
ture annual applications (Elith et al. 2011; Guillera-Arroita et al. 2014;
range Merow et al. 2013; Phillips and Dudı´k 2008). Addition-
bio14 Precipita- mm ally, it is also the best technique for some comparative
tion of dri- analyses in species distribution modeling, and has been
est month
chosen to model and map species habitat suitability as a
bio15 Pre- mm
cipitation
function of environmental variables (Merow et al. 2013;
seasonality Phillips et al. 2017).
bio18 Precipita- mm Although there is no consensus on the best set of
tion of parameter values to use in MaxEnt, the user still needs to
warmest specify a set of parameters, such as the percentage of test
quarter data, the number of background points, the type of fea-
bio19 Precipita- mm ture, the clamp, and the regularization multiplier before
tion of
coldest
fitting. The model was run 10 times using a subsampling
quarter technique. In a strategic compromise between precision
and practicality, the MaxEnt model’s default configura-
Climate scenarios tion strikes a balance with a convergence threshold of
They are becoming increasingly pivotal in predicting cli- 5,000 iterations and a maximum of 10,000 background
mate change, conducting related research, and informing points, enabling accurate predictions without excessive
climate policy decisions. The data were retrieved at the computational demands. A default regularization value
same spatial resolution as the current climate variables of 1 was used to prevent the model from overfitting and
(30 arc-seconds), and were then resampled to a resolu- to strike a balance between model complexity and sim-
tion of 200 m. plicity (Phillips and Dudı´k 2008; Warren and Seifert
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (Had- 2011). Finally, the data was split into a 75% and 25% set
GEM) (Roberts 2017) is a widely used climate model to train and validate the model’s predictions, respectively.
in Africa due to its highest Effective Climate Sensitiv- The performance of the model was evaluated by cal-
ity (ECS) of all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project culating the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver
Phase 6 (CMIP6) models (Andrews et al. 2020; Kuhlbrodt operating characteristic (ROC) curve. AUC is a measure
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 5 of 11

Fig. 2 The model structural framework

Table 2 The four emission scenarios

Emission Description
was used to determine the importance of each variable in
SSP1–2.6 SSP1 (Low forcing scenario) Upgrade to RCP2.6 scenario affecting the suitable growth area of the eucalyptus tree.
based on (Radiative forcing reaches 2.6 W/m2 in 2100)
SSP2–4.5 SSP2 (Medium forcing scenario) Upgrade to RCP4.5 Spatial and statistical analysis
scenario based on (Radiative forcing reaches 4.5 W/m2 ArcGIS 10.8 was used to calculate the areas of different
in 2100) potential suitable zones over time. The grid values of
SSP3–7.0 SSP3 (Medium forcing scenario) New RCP7.0 emission the suitable and non-suitable zones predicted for Euca-
path based on (Radiative forcing will reach 7.0 W/m2
lypts in each period were reclassified in ArcGIS 10.8. The
in 2100)
classes above the threshold value were classified as suit-
SSP5–8.5 SSP5 (High forcing scenario) Upgrade to RCP8.5 sce-
nario based on (SSP5 is the only SSP scenario that can able zones and assigned a value of 1, while the classes
achieve radiative forcing to 8.5 W/m2 in 2100) below the threshold value were classified as non-suitable
zones and assigned a value of 0. The distribution changes
of model performance that ranges from 0 to 1. An AUC of the eucalyptus tree were calculated, and the area varia-
of 1 indicates perfect performance, while an AUC of less tion range of the potential distribution areas in each
than 0.5 indicates a model that performs worse than ran- period (2030 (2021–2040): SSPs1–2.6, SSPs 2–4.5, SSPs
dom chance. Model performance is classified into five 5–8.5, 2050 (2041–2060): SSPs1–2.6, SSPs 2–4.5, and
categories, from failing to excellent, based on the AUC SSPs 5–8.5) was obtained. We prioritized 2030 and 2050
value: failing (AUC < 0.6), poor (0.6 ≤ AUC < 0.7), fair for their insights into near- and mid-term impacts, offer-
(0.7 ≤ AUC < 0.8), good (0.8 ≤ AUC < 0.9), and excellent ing crucial timing for policy interventions based on pro-
(AUC ≥ 0.9) (Gebrewahid et al. 2020). The jackknife test jected eucalyptus distribution changes.
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 6 of 11

Table 3 Model’s prediction accuracy and major predictor

variables relative importance
AUC values Predictor variable Percentage
contribution
Mean (0.935) Elevation 53.5
Training data (0.946) Rooting conditions 10.6
Test data (0.934) Slope 6.8
Random prediction (0.5) Precipitation of driest 3.8
month
Temperature seasonality 3.7

Fig. 4 The effect of rooting conditions on the predicted distribution of

Eucalyptus

Fig. 3 The effect of elevation on the predicted distribution of Eucalyptus

To systematically examine the data’s key characteris-

tics and patterns, descriptive statistical techniques were
employed. These methods, adept at summarizing and
organizing essential numerical information, painted a
comprehensive portrait of the dataset. The resulting
insights, meticulously presented through a tapestry of Fig. 5 The effect of slope on the predicted distribution of Eucalyptus
well-structured tables and visually compelling figures,
facilitated clear comprehension and interpretation of the seasonality (3.7%). These above five variables accounted
data’s salient features, fostering a deeper understanding for 78.4% of the total contribution, making them the
of the underlying phenomena under investigation. dominant environmental factors affecting the potential
distribution of Eucalyptus in Ethiopia.
Results
MaxEnt model prediction accuracy evaluation Key environmental factors influencing species distribution
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve The results show that altitude, rooting conditions,
showed that the area under the curve (AUC) values slope, precipitation of the driest month, and tempera-
for the training and test datasets were 0.946 and 0.934, ture seasonality were identified as the most determinant
respectively (Table 3). This indicates that the MaxEnt environmental factors governing the potential distri-
model developed to predict areas of suitability for Euca- bution of Eucalyptus in the region. Figures 3–7 shows
lyptus has a high degree of agreement between the train- the response curves for the main environmental factors
ing and test data. affecting Eucalyptus distribution. When the probabil-
The jackknife test results for the contributions of the ity of Eucalyptus distribution is greater than or equal to
predictor variables to the MaxEnt model are shown in 0.5 and the suitability condition is considered to be suit-
Table 3. Elevation and rooting conditions were the most able distribution, the following environmental conditions
important variables, with contributions of 53.5% and are met: Elevation is 2000–3000 m, rooting conditions
10.6%, respectively. The other variables with moderate is 2–4 m (medium root system), slope is > 1500 m/m,
contributions to the MaxEnt model were slope (6.8%), precipitation of driest month is 100–150 mm, and tem-
precipitation of driest month (3.8%), and temperature perature seasonality is 3–10 °C. Similarly, at the optimal
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 7 of 11

Predicted effects of climate change on Eucalyptus

distribution
Ethiopia has currently 5359378.85 hectares of suitable
habitat for eucalypt, which is about 5% of its total land
area (Table 4; Fig. 8). These areas are mainly distrib-
uted in the northern, central, southern, and western
highlands and plateaus. Under three different future
scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, MaxEnt model
projections show a potential decrease in net area cover
and expansion by the 2030s, followed by an increase in
the 2050s (Table 4; Figs. 9 and 10). The decrease in net
area cover and expansion by 2030 varied between 18.21%
and 20.88%, depending on the climate change scenario.
Under the moderate and high forcing scenarios, the
Fig. 6 The effect of precipitation of driest month on the predicted distri- decrease was greater. Under the low and moderate forc-
bution of Eucalyptus
ing scenarios, the increase in net area cover and expan-
sion by 2050 varied between 46.04% and 55.06%, with
the higher increase occurring under the moderate forc-
ing scenario. Despite the overall increase, climate change
scenarios still showed clear differences in their impact on
the species. By the 2030 and 2050 s, the net area cover
and expansion of Eucalyptus is expected to increase by
3.83% under SSPs1-2.6 and decrease by 27.85% under
SSPs5-8.5, respectively.
The high-forcing climate change scenario (SSPs5-8.5)
has a significantly greater impact (around 49% higher) on
the decrease in surface area cover between 2030 and 2050
than the low-forcing scenario (SSPs1-2.6). Most impor-
tantly, the low and moderate forcing climate change sce-
narios are expected to cause a nearly 105% increase in
surface area cover between 2030 and 2050.
Fig. 7 The effect of temperature seasonality on the predicted distribution
of Eucalyptus Discussion
The study findings revealed that topographic variables
Table 4 Predicted changes in Eucalypts expansion and cover for are the environmental features that most strongly influ-
the specified period and scenarios ence the distribution of eucalypts in Ethiopia. The spe-
Period Area (ha) Change (ha) Loss Gain cies is most likely to be found in areas with high elevation
(%) (%)
and gentle slopes. In this study, the first variable refers
Current 5359378.85 - - -
to areas with an altitude of more than 2,500 m above sea
2030s, SSPs1-2.6 5564658.29 205279.44 3.83
level, and the second variable implies areas with a rela-
2030s, SSPs2-4.5 4383356.37 976022.48 18.21
tively slight incline. This finding is consistent with recent
2030s, SSPs5-8.5 4240131.05 1119247.8 20.88
studies on the autecology of this species in China (Ouy-
2050s, SSPs1-2.6 7826645.39 2467266.54 46.04
2050s, SSPs2-4.5 8309965.66 2950586.81 55.06
ang et al. 2021) and Spain (Lázaro-Lobo et al. 2022),
2050s, SSPs5-8.5 3866925.09 1492453.76 27.85
which showed that topographic variables are more
important than other environmental variables in deter-
mining its distribution. Altitude, the most important
environmental conditions for Eucalyptus distribution, factor in this study, was also the second most important
the corresponding elevation, rooting conditions, slope, factor in aforesaid study in China. Therefore, Eucalyptus
precipitation of driest month, and temperature season- globulus has succeeded in the Ethiopian highlands (the
ality are 4000–5000 m, 0.5–1.5 m (shallow root system), hotspots) since its introduction, adapting to the local cli-
1000–1300 m/m, 1– 50 mm, and 15 − 35 °C, respectively. mate and soil conditions (Pohjonen and Pukkala 1990).
The second most important variable is rooting con-
ditions, an edaphic factor. Trees may develop deep and
wide root systems that reach into cracks in the bedrock
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 8 of 11

Fig. 8 Current potential expansion of Eucalyptus in Ethiopia

Fig. 9 MaxEnt model predictions of future potential expansion of eucalypt under different climate change scenarios
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 9 of 11

Fig. 10 MaxEnt model predictions of future potential expansion of eucalypt under different climate change scenarios

below the soil to find water when it is scarce (Nepstad et of eucalyptus in Ethiopia. The species is most likely to
al. 1994). Nevertheless, they need less extensive root sys- be found in areas with low to medium temperature vari-
tems when water is abundant (Matthes-sears and Larson ability, which is consistent with its autecological records
1995). Thus, the abundant water availability in the Ethio- (Cerasoli et al. 2016).
pian highlands, the species’ hotspots (Tesfaw et al. 2023), Despite the large area currently occupied by eucalypts
allows the species to develop a shallow rooting system. in Ethiopia, the developed SDM indicates that there
Most of Ethiopia’s surface water resources are in the is potential for their range to continue to expand. Our
highlands, where 78% of the country’s renewable surface model predicts a significant expansion of suitable habi-
water is generated by river basins (Berhanu et al. 2014; tat for eucalypts in the highlands under both low and
FAO 2016). moderate forcing climate change scenarios. Tesfaw et
The fourth and fifth most important variables are al. (2023) recently found that eucalyptus coverage and
related to the precipitation of driest month and tem- expansion increased by 69% in the northern part of Ethi-
perature seasonality. Eucalyptus globulus is typically opian highlands over the past two decades.
found in areas with 600–1100 mm of annual rainfall in Eucalyptus plantations expanded rapidly throughout
its native range, and is not present in areas with less than the Ethiopian highlands, primarily motivated by eco-
500 mm of annual precipitation (Bean and Russo 1989). nomic need driven factors (Gizachew 2017; Yitaferu et
The high average annual precipitation of 2000 mm in the al. 2013). Farmers and growers in the study area primar-
study area (Ashkriz 2015) may entail why pluviometry ily establish eucalyptus woodlots as a livelihood strategy,
variables are less important than topographic variables. both to meet household wood consumption needs and
The positive effect of precipitation of the driest month generate cash income (Bajigo et al. 2019). The preferred
on the distribution of eucalyptus suggests that the soil species is also fast-growing and highly tolerant of diffi-
water storage was insufficient, leading to rapid depletion cult environmental stresses (Demel 2000). Furthermore,
of soil water during the summer. Moreover, this study Eucalyptus species have evolved a variety of adaptations
shows that thermal variables, especially temperature to survive in diverse environmental conditions, includ-
seasonality, have a moderate impact on the distribution ing severe droughts, poor soil, fire, and insect damage
Mosisa et al. Environmental Systems Research (2024) 13:4 Page 10 of 11

Competing interests
(Davidso, 1989). The species succeeded in Ethiopian The authors declare no competing interests.
highland climates and soil conditions because they cop-
pice vigorously and are not palatable to livestock (Poh- Received: 30 November 2023 / Accepted: 19 January 2024
jonen and Pukkala 1990).
The retraction of suitable habitat in the high forcing
scenario between 2030 and 2050 is likely due to tempera-
ture-related variables, particularly temperature seasonal- References
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