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 Africa Education Review

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Achieving Universal General Secondary Education

in Ethiopia in line with the middle-income country
vision: a reality or a dream?

Mulugeta Tsegai Gbre-eyesus

To cite this article: Mulugeta Tsegai Gbre-eyesus (2017): Achieving Universal General Secondary
Education in Ethiopia in line with the middle-income country vision: a reality or a dream?, Africa
Education Review, DOI: 10.1080/18146627.2016.1224570

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 article

ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL GENERAL

SECONDARY EDUCATION IN ETHIOPIA IN LINE
WITH THE MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY VISION:
A REALITY OR A DREAM?

Mulugeta Tsegai Gbre-eyesus

Educational Planning and Management
Mekelle University, Ethiopia
[email protected]

ABSTRACT
This article analyses the challenges facing secondary education in the context of Ethiopia’s
Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) for 2010/11–2014/15 and its stated goal of
becoming a middle-income country by 2025. It does not aim to provide a definitive set of
recommendations for universalising general secondary education to meet the demands of
a middle-income economy. Rather, the article informs policy makers and other stakeholders
about the options available in the context of Ethiopia. It aims to equip them to chart a path
for sustainable expansion of the subsector, enabling universalising secondary education
to play an important role in transforming the country from a low-income to a middle-
income economy. The article investigates the participation rate in secondary education
that would support a middle-income economy, and then analyses how teacher preparation,
development and management, together with school-based management, can contribute
to ensuring quality secondary graduates. However, the following problems still persist in
secondary education: the gap between access for urban and rural populations remains
significant; gender disparities and disparities between regions remain high; access to general
secondary education (grades 9–10) is still low; access to preparatory secondary education
is low; and the distance between home and school is far for numerous children, which
represents a barrier in particular for adolescent girls. The article summarises policy options
for universalising general secondary education. The most critical reform areas identified in
the study relate to the financing, and governance and management of secondary education,
particularly school-based management.

Keywords: universal general secondary education; access; equity; gender disparity

Africa Education Review DOI: 10.1080/18146627.2016.1224570

Volume xx | Number xx | 2017 | pp. xx–xx Print ISSN 1814-6627 | Online 1753-5921
http://www.tandfonline.com/raer20 © University of South Africa

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION
Sub-Saharan (SSA) Africa used to be one of the lowest achieving regions in terms
of education; but after the Dakar Education for All (EFA) by 2015 movement initiated by
the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) in
2000, the SSA region has made significant progress. Primary school enrolment rates
have increased in most of the countries and school drop-out ratios have dropped
considerably. According to UNESCO (2014, 2015), between 1999 and 2011, the global
average net enrolment rate to primary school increased from 84 per cent to 91 per cent.
Moreover, between 1999 and 2012, the number of children out of school fell by almost
half, from 107 million to 58 million; but 22 per cent of the SSA region’s primary age
school children were still out of school in 2011. Ethiopia and India are among the 10
countries that reduced their out-of-school populations the most in relative terms, and
they also contributed significantly to the overall reduction in out-of-school numbers –
by 2.2 million and 4.5 million, respectively.
Although SSA primary school enrolment rates have made significant progress,
lower secondary school enrolment rates are far behind the rest of the world. Reports
have indicated that the SSA lower secondary school enrolment rate was the world’s
lowest at 41.2 per cent in 2012 (EdStats 2013). The world’s enrolment at this level
was 82 per cent in 2011, but it varied highly from country to country. The secondary
school enrolment rate was less than 11 per cent in Niger and 97 per cent in Seychelles
and South Africa. A high level of gender bias can also be seen in this region where
the number of girls who enrol for secondary school is far behind the number of boys.
To alleviate the low participation at this level countries have started to expand their
secondary education. For instance, according to Asankha and Takashi (2011), in 2007
the Ugandan government started the free Universal Secondary Education (USE) policy
which was the first in SSA.
Ethiopia is one of the countries in SSA which is trying to improve not only
primary school education but also secondary school education. Accordingly, the general
secondary education curricula are designed to prepare students for a range of future
education, training and career options.
In 2010, the Ethiopian government started the Universal General Secondary
Education (UGSE) plan which was among the few in SSA. Therefore, it is very important
to evaluate the feasibility of the government’s new UGSE plan in line with the Middle
Income Country Vision.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The current study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the UGSE plan in line with the
five-year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) for 2010/11–2014/15 (MoFED
2010) to become a lower-middle-income country (LMIC) by 2025. It was found that
although the UGSE plan has considerably increased public secondary school enrolment

2
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

– especially for girls from poor households – Ethiopia still needs further improvement
in terms of access to and quality of secondary school education to achieve the UGSE
plan by the national target year 2020 set in the Education Sector Development Program
(ESDP IV 2010) document. The article strives to shed some light on what its attainment
may demand. To this effect, the study assessed various opportunities and challenges of
achieving the UGSE plan by the target year and attempted to make some conclusions.

LITERATURE REVIEW
The Ethiopian economy has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa since
the last decade, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at or near double-digit
levels since 2003 (Joshi and Verspoor 2013). Two economic development plans – the
Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (2002/03–2004/05) and the
Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (2005/06–2009/10) –
guided economic development through 2010. Based on lessons learnt and the national
development vision, the government launched the GTP for 2010/11–2014/15 (MoFED
2010). The GTP aims to continue rapid broad-based development in a sustainable
manner; achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); and make Ethiopia a
middle-income country by 2025. The GTP envisions a major leap, not only in terms of
economic structure and income level but also in terms of social indicators. The long-
term vision of the country as enunciated in the GTP (MoFED 2010, 21) is
. . . building an economy which has a modern and productive agricultural sector with enhanced
technology and an industrial sector that plays a leading role in the economy; sustaining economic
development and securing social justice; and, increasing per capita income of citizens so as to
reach the level of those in middle-income countries.

Hence, the overriding development agenda of the GTP is to sustain the growth witnessed
over the past several years and eventually end poverty in Ethiopia. To this end, the plan
seeks to maintain an annual GDP growth between 11.2 per cent base and 14.9 per cent
upper case scenarios. The GTP has a strong focus on industrialisation, especially in the
sugar, textile, garment and leather industries.
The country’s progress toward becoming an LMIC will involve the transformation
of an economy that – notwithstanding its recent growth performance – has a large
subsistence agriculture sector and is dominated by low-productivity activities. In order
to reach the GDP of an LMIC, that is, one that exceeds $1,000 per capita from its current
per capita level of $636, Ethiopia will need to grow at a projected base case scenario
average annual rate of 11.2 per cent for 14 years, with an annual population growth of
2.6 per cent.
The Ethiopian economy must grow into one in which labour is more productive and
modern agriculture, manufacturing and services are increasingly important. Reaching
the annual 11.2 per cent growth rate projected by the GTP will require significant
improvements in labour productivity. Building a workforce that has the level of

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

education and training required to support the economy on its path to middle-income
status is therefore a central development challenge. In doing so, expansion of secondary
education to meet this economic transformation is imperative.

SECONDARY EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC

TRANSFORMATION
The economic benefits of education in terms of increased individual earnings are well
documented. A review of the literature by Psacharopolous and Patrinos (2002 in Joshi
and Verspoor 2013) found that an additional year of schooling has a large effect on
workers’ earnings, with a 10 per cent average rate of return to an additional year of
schooling, based on a sample of 100 countries. Addressing these issues is critically
important, given that the experience of middle-income countries suggests that sustained
economic progress is associated with a rapidly evolving skill profile of the labour force.
At the primary level Ethiopia has almost reached middle-income country enrolment
rates, with a Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) of 95.3 per cent and a Net Enrolment Rate
(NER) of 86 per cent in 2012, compared to the LMIC averages of 107 per cent and
83 per cent, respectively. However, it lags substantially behind the LMIC average for
all other levels of education. The lower and upper secondary (preparatory) GERs for
Ethiopia in 2012 were 38.4 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively, compared to the
respective LMIC averages of 72 per cent and 45 per cent (Joshi and Verspoor 2013;
MoE 2012).
Policy development ultimately is determined by national conditions and priorities,
but international experience can be helpful when planning a long-term strategy. The
experience of LMICs suggests that a number of observations be taken into account. As
to the recent World Bank report (2013), firstly, although universal general secondary
education (grades 9–10) is an important policy objective, a general secondary GER
of roughly 80 per cent should be adequate to support the needs of an LMIC economy.
Secondly, a number of students will want to enter the labour market and get a job
upon completion of general secondary education (Grade 10). These students will seek,
whenever possible, to benefit from in-house training offered by employers, but will not
enter full-time Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programmes.
Thirdly, the current target for upper secondary (preparatory) education admissions (20%
of Grade 10 graduates) is much lower than the average LMIC target. Finally, the well-
justified goal of Natural Science enrolments of 70 per cent at both the preparatory and
tertiary level may be difficult to achieve with an acceptable level of graduate quality,
although it provides a clear indication of policy direction.

4
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Secondary access is currently low and inequitable

Participation rates for secondary education in SSA are lower than for any other region
of the world. The lack of access to secondary education is increasingly seen to constrain
countries’ abilities to pursue effective economic growth and development strategies,
which is leading governments and the funding community to place increased emphasis
on the expansion of secondary education (Joshi and Vespoor 2013).
Governments in SSA and their financial partners are increasingly looking to make
secondary education more widely accessible, more relevant, and of higher quality.
Secondary participation rates in SSA have increased from 25.6 per cent in 1999 to
41.2 per cent in 2012 (World Bank 2013). Despite these increases, however, access
to secondary education will remain well below universal rates, particularly in many
countries in SSA. Table 1 shows the range of average GERs for selected SSA countries.

Table 1: Primary and secondary GERs (2012)

Country Primary GER Secondary GER

Sub-Saharan Africa 99.75 41.2%
Botswana 106% (2009) 81.7% (2008)
Ethiopia 95.3% 38.4%
Ghana 110% 58.2%
Kenya 112% (2009) 60.12% (2010)
Lesotho 111% 52%
Malawi 140% 34.2%
Mauritius 108% 95.8%
Mozambique 107% 25.9%
Ruwanda 128% 31.8%
Senegal 84% 41% (2011)
Seychelles 106% 101.3%
South Africa 102% 101.9%
Tanzania 102% (2010) 34.97%
Uganda 110 27.6% (2010)

Source: World Bank Educational Data Base (EdStats 2013)

Only a handful of countries in the region (e.g. Botswana, Mauritius, Seychelles and
South Africa) have achieved secondary education access rates as high as 80 per cent.
Some countries, such as Mozambique and Uganda, have not even achieved rates of 30
per cent (EdStats 2013).

5
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

METHODOLOGY
The following methods and procedures were employed to attain the objective of the
study.
• Review of available documents related to trends in access, completion, efficiency,
quality and equity. Quite a number of documents were identified from relevant
ministries as well as government and non-governmental organisations and reviewed
thoroughly.
• Review of quantitative/statistical information from secondary sources.
The MoE Education Statistics Annual Abstract of several years, the 2013/14 EFA Global
Monitoring Report (UNESCO 2014), some World Bank and UNESCO documents
were used as major data sources.
The quantitative data was analysed using descriptive summaries and disparity
analyses, trend/time series analyses. Finally, tables and graphs were produced to highlight
the major findings of the study.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Access and equity
The secondary GER compares those students enrolled, regardless of age, with the
population of the appropriate age range. In Ethiopia, the official age for first cycle
secondary (General Secondary) is 15 to 16 and of second cycle secondary is 17 to 18.
Enrolment in all secondary education (grades 9–12) has grown by an average of 4.6 per
cent per year for the last five years and for general secondary by 2.8 per cent. There were
nearly 1.9 million students enrolled in the year 2005 EC (2012/13) (MoE 2013). From
this total, over 1.5 million in the first cycle (grades 9–10). The average annual growth
rate for grades 11–12 was 15.0 per cent for the last five years. The GER for the second
cycle (grades 11–12) rose from 6 per cent in 2008/09 to 9.5 per cent in 2012/13 while
the NER stood at 5 per cent in 2012/13 (MoE 2013).
However, the GER increased only slightly from 38.1 per cent in 2008/09 to 38.4 per
cent in 2012/13, while the NER rose over the same period from 13.5 to 19.4 per cent (MoE
2013). The big difference between GER and NER indicates that the enrolment includes
many over-aged students. This is mainly due to delayed promotion from primary or it
might be because of examination and supply barriers, or it might be financial barriers to
promote from Grade 8 of primary to Grade 9 of secondary education.

6
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Table 2: General secondary (grades 9–10) GER trends by sex (2008/09–2012/13)

GER NER
Year
Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total
2008/09 43.7 32.4 38.1 15 11.9 13.5
2009/10 43.5 34.7 39.1 16.8 16.1 16.4
2010/11 41.8 34.9 38.4 16.4 16.2 16.3
2011/12 39.1 34.6 36.9 16.9 17.6 17.3
2012/13 39.9 36.9 38.4 18.8 20.1 19.4

Source: Ministry of education 2012/13 Annual Abstract

Note: There are some inconsistencies in the above participation rates due to revision in population projections
during the period covered in the table.

As indicated in Table 2, the national GER for 2012/13 stood at 38.4 per cent, showing
an irregular trend. Over the years, however, the gender gap has narrowed from 11.3
percentage points in 2008/09 to 3 percentage points in 2012/13; female enrolment
continues to grow, narrowing the equity gap, but the enrolment counts remain higher
for boys.
The NER stood at 19.4 per cent (male 18.8% and female 20.1%) in 2012/13 and
showed a slight increase over the last five years. It increased by 2.1 percentage points
from the previous year and was 5.9 percentage points higher than in 2008/09. Finally,
the gap between GER and NER, as put side by side in Table 1, may also show that
Ethiopia needs to work more to bring children to school at the official age. However, in
the last decade there were some signs of improvement in youth literacy that offer hope.
Thanks to the expansion of primary schooling over the past decade, the youth literacy
rate in Ethiopia increased from 34 per cent in 2000 to 52 per cent in 2011(UNESCO
2014) and the total number of students enrolled in the preparatory level (grades 11–12)
more than doubled during ESDP IV implementation.

Equity
Secondary Gender Parity Index
The share of girls among students in grades 9–10 increased from 35.6 per cent to 41.9
per cent. The proportion of preparatory female students remained around 30 per cent
throughout the period of implementation of ESDP IV. At the first cycle secondary
education (grades 9–10) shows that the Gender Parity Index (GPI) for 2012/13 is 0.92
and for the second cycle (grades 11–12) was 0.81 (MoE 2013).
Therefore, gender disparities have decreased somewhat but remain very important
at higher levels. Several regions have implemented strategies to attract more girls into

7
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

secondary education, such as awareness-raising activities, improving facilities for girls,

creating girls’ clubs and councils and some affirmative action programmes (with specific
budget allocations for girls) (MoE 2013). In a few regions, girls’ boarding schools have
been established. Furthermore, the expansion of secondary education has allowed
some increase in overall enrolment levels and has been accompanied by lower student/
teacher and student/section ratios but it has not succeeded in overcoming urban–rural
and regional disparities in a significant manner (MoE 2013).

Urban–Rural disparity
Various documents of the MoE (e.g. 2013, 2014) indicate that the availability of
secondary education in rural areas remains limited. This is reflected in the important
differences between regions. Most regions have constructed additional schools in rural
areas, but it remains difficult to construct sufficient schools of good quality in rural areas
(because of the lack of access to some indispensable services). With regard to grades
9–10, during ESDP IV implementation, many new secondary schools were opened. The
total number increased from 1 202 in 2008/09 to 1 912 in 2012/13, which was a 59.07
per cent increase over five years (MoE 2013). The urban–rural gap in the number of
schools has been reduced, but there is still a big gap to be addressed, as only 24.1 per
cent of secondary schools are in the rural areas (MoE 2014). Moreover, there remains a
regional disparity in GERs, for instance, the GERs for Somali and Afar remain only at
7.4 and 11.5 per cent, respectively, which is far below the national average. The increase
in the number of schools has led to an improvement in enrolment during the execution
of ESDP IV. During ESDP V (MoE 2015), there will be a need to develop relevant
strategies to expand secondary education for the rural population.

Government vs non-government schools

The non-government education sector in Ethiopia enrolled only 4 per cent of secondary
education students in 2012/13 (MoE 2013). Reaching the target of universal general
secondary education is unlikely to be realised without a substantial increase in non-
government school enrolments.
The government currently remains the almost exclusive provider of general
education, enrolling some 96 per cent of students in primary and secondary education.
Non-government schools played an important role in the education sector prior to the
mid-1970s, accounting for some 30 per cent of institutional capacity in 1975 (Joshi and
Verspoor 2013). In that year, the military government outlawed the establishment of non-
government schools and nationalised those then in existence. The government that came
to power in 1993, after the collapse of the military government, reopened the education
sector to non-governmental providers. Its commitment to the non-governmental sector is
reflected in the Education and Training Policy (ETP) (TGE 1994, 32), which articulates

8
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

a policy of ‘[creating] the necessary conditions to encourage and give support to private
investors to open schools and establish various educational and training institutions’.
As a result of this policy change, enrolments in non-government schools increased
rapidly. More impressively, the number of secondary students enrolled in these schools
increased from 57 000 in 2007/08 to about 95 610 in 2012/13, an annual growth rate of
above 11 per cent, that is, faster than the growth of enrolment in government schools. Yet,
the non-governmental sector enrols a relatively small proportion of Ethiopian students.
The 95 610 secondary students enrolled in the sector in 2012/13 represented only about
4.1 per cent of total enrolments, a much lower share than that in countries such as Chile
(57%), Mauritius (55%), Indonesia (43%), Vietnam (21% in upper secondary), Jordan
(18%), and Ghana (16%) (EdStats 2009).
Continued rapid growth of secondary enrolments in the non-governmental sector
has the potential to rapidly expand the number of places available at this level of
education; reduce financial demands on the government budget; ensure progress toward
universal general secondary education; and free up resources for investments in quality-
enhancing inputs in government schools. The projected education enrolment targets are
compared to the LMIC average in Table 3.

Table 3: Projected education enrolment targets compared to LMIC average (%)

ESDP IV Projections LMIC average
(2014/15) (2024/25) (2009)
GER, grades 1–8 112 106 107
NER, grades 1–8 88 97 85
GER, grades 9–10 62 98 78
GER, grades 11–12 10 20 49
TVET (level 1–4) as share of upper secondary 70 75 25
(preparatory and TVET)
GER, tertiary education 9 19 19

Source: ESDP IV (2010); World Bank (2013)

Table 3 provides a perspective on the enrolment targets of ESDP IV and the forward
projections for 2024/25 based on ESDP IV assumptions, by comparing these targets
with current LMIC averages. Several points can be discerned from Table 3. Firstly, the
goal of providing all students the opportunity to complete Grade 10 is well justified and
consistent with both the GTP and the objective of reaching LMIC status by 2024/25.
However, according to Joshi and Verspoor (2013), it is important to recognise that in
practice, many LMICs have found this target difficult to realise. In most countries, some
students drop out of school before completing Grade 10. Consequently, lower secondary
enrolment levels remain well below 100 per cent in virtually every LMIC. Ethiopia

9
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

should accordingly design a number of alternative pathways to further education and

training for students who do not complete general secondary education.
Secondly, it is equally important to recognise that at the end of general secondary
education (Grade 10), a number of students will enter the labour market, get a job,
and – whenever possible – benefit from on-the-job or in-house training offered by their
employers (Joshi and Verspoor 2013). Other students will find jobs, but re-enter the
formal education and training system at a later point in life when their career choices
have consolidated. Some of this group will enter short-term TVET programmes offered
by public and private providers. Education and training policies need to respond to
these realities accordingly and ensure the availability of alternative pathways to
further education and skills acquisition. Projections of future government education
expenditures also need to recognise these realities.
Thirdly, the GER target for upper secondary (preparatory) education appears
modest, while the TVET target far exceeds enrolment rates common in middle-income
countries. The ratio between GERs in general upper secondary and tertiary education in
LMICs is, on an average, 2.5:1, whereas it is almost 1:1 in Ethiopia (Joshi and Verspoor
2013; MoE 2013). This ratio is consistent with a concept of upper secondary education
that views its sole purpose as preparation for university education. At the same time,
TVET in Ethiopia represents more than 70 per cent of total enrolments at the post-
general secondary level (i.e. grades 11–12).

Trends in education expenditure

The strong commitment to educational development since 1994 is reflected in budget
allocations to the sector, which have increased steadily to reach more than 25 per cent of
total government expenditure, and 5.7 per cent of the GDP, in 2012 (MoE 2013). Both of
these percentages are high relative to per capita income by international standards. The
share of recurrent education spending at the woreda level was estimated in excess of 40
per cent during the period 2006–09 for all regions except Afar and Somali, whereas it
was around 20 per cent (MoE 2010b).
The composition of government education expenditures, moreover, changed
in favour of general and higher education during the years 2003–08, while the share
devoted to TVET fell sharply. The share allocated to higher education is estimated to
have reached 50 per cent during the period 2008–10. Secondary education has been
squeezed between the primary and higher education subsectors – allocated less than 10
per cent of the public resources available for education in 2009–10, compared to 30 per
cent or more in countries such as India and Indonesia (EdStats average for 2007–09).
External resources flowing through budgetary channels were estimated at Br 4.7 billion
in 2009/10, representing approximately 28 per cent of total education expenditure.
However, this almost 90 per cent of the budget in primary and general education is
consumed by salaries for teachers and education officials, with no capital or operating

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

expenses allocated to the region. Only in 2009/10 did the government introduce school
grants to increase non-salary expenditures.

Figure 1: Education expenditure as a percentage of government spending and GDP,

by fiscal year

Source: World Bank (2005); MoE (2007, 2012)

Achievements and challenges

Secondary school enrolment as a whole (grades 9–12) also expanded rapidly after 1994,
growing roughly fivefold from 371 000 in 1994/95 to 1.9 million in 2012/13. The GER
for general secondary education (grades 9–10), rose from only 12 per cent in 1998/99 to
38.4 per cent in 2012/13; and for secondary preparatory education (grades 11–12), from
3 per cent in 2002/03 to 9.5 per cent in 2012/13 (MoE 2003, 2004, 2005b, 2006, 2007,
2008a, 2009, 2010b, 2012).
The rapid increase in enrolment was facilitated by an increase in the number of
primary and secondary schools between 1996 and 2012; the former increased from 10
394 to 30534 (a 194% increase) and the latter from 369 to 1 912 (a 418% increase)
(MoE 2012).

Challenges
The main challenges of universalising general secondary education in Ethiopia are
discussed next.

11
Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Access
In spite of the remarkable progress in increasing educational access in Ethiopia,
challenges remain in meeting government enrolment and completion targets for primary
and secondary education. Progress toward ESDP IV target enrolment rates for 2014/15
is presented in Table 3. As can be seen, extraordinary efforts will be needed to achieve
the NER target for grades 5–8 and the GER target for grades 9–10. In fact, phase IV
of the ESDP established the goal of achieving universal general secondary education
completion by 2020 (MoE 2010), a goal that is itself a major challenge.
Notwithstanding the legacy of inequitable access to education for girls, rural
residents, and students from poor families, increases in overall access in recent years
have helped to narrow the gender gap, enlarged school opportunities in rural areas, and
benefitted the poorest students.

Gender gap
Promoting educational access for girls has been a central element of all phases of the
ESDP. For example, the programme has implemented initiatives to enhance awareness
of the importance of girls’ education in local communities. Efforts have also been
undertaken to make schools friendlier to girls by constructing separate latrines for boys
and girls and assigning female teachers and head teachers to provide girls with support.
Moreover, girls’ clubs have been established in schools and tutorial, guidance and
counselling services provided to female students. All these endeavours have contributed
to a significant increase in girls’ enrolment, with the primary GER for girls rising. As a
result, the GPI for primary and secondary education became 0.91 and 0.81 in 2012/13,
respectively.
Learning achievement in the education system remains unacceptably low. This
has become a source of concern for government officials, educators, parents, and other
stakeholders.

Low efficiency and input indicators

Current efficiency indicators suggest issues of poor quality, including a continued high
dropout rate (9%) in Grade 1; an average national primary education repetition rate
of almost 7.9 per cent (which is nevertheless an improvement over earlier figures) for
2011/12; a survival rate of only 50.7 per cent to Grade 5 in 2010/11; and a mere 53
per cent primary education completion rate in 2013/14 (MoE 2013). Furthermore, the
dropout rate is higher for Grade 1, Grade 5 and Grade 8, whereas the lowest dropout rate
is at Grade 3. At national level, 22.7 per cent of pupils enrolled in Grade 1 in 2011/12,
had left school before reaching Grade 2 in 2012/13.

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Secondary education faces similar challenges. As Table 4 suggests, all efficiency

indicators at this level are considerably below the targets formulated in ESDP IV.
Although input indicators have improved, especially the proportion of qualified teachers,
the increase in class size to 49.6 in 2012/13 is a cause of concern (MOE 2013).

Table 4: ESDP IV targets compared to achievements in 2012/13

Achievement
S. No. ESDP IV Target (2014/15)
(2012/13)
1 GER for general secondary 62% 38.4%
2 Enrolment in preparatory 360,000 358,493
3 GPI for GER general secondary 1 0.92
4 GPI for GER preparatory 1 0.81
5 Share of general secondary in rural 35% 24.1%
6 GER for general secondary in Afar and Somali 30% 7.4% and
11.5% respectively
7 Share of private schools at general secondary 5% 4.1%
8 Qualified teacher 100% 91% secondary

Source: ESDP IV (2010); MoE (2012/13)

Low learning achievement

Learning achievement in the education system remains unacceptably low. This is a
source of concern for government officials, educators, parents, and other stakeholders.
Information on learning achievement in Ethiopia can be gleaned from National Learning
Assessment (NLA) and national examination results. For the NLA tests, a sample of
grades 4, 8, 10 and 12 cohorts were tested at four-year intervals in Mathematics, the
Sciences, and English. The test instruments were based on minimum-level curriculum
competencies of the relevant grade and test items were standardised by means of a pilot
test.

Grades 10 and 12 NLA tests

Grades 10 and 12 were first tested in 2010. The second NLA of grades 10 and 12 was
carried out at the end of April 2013 in all regions across the nation. The extent of the
underachievement in those tests is shown in Table 5, which lists the proportion of
students who scored below 50 per cent, that is, the minimum proficiency benchmark
established by the MoE (TGE 1994).

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Table 5: Percentage of students scoring below 50 per cent on NLA tests (2010 and
2014)
Subject Grade 10 ESDP IV Grade 12 ESDP IV
Target Target
2010 2014 2010 2014
Percentage scoring below 50% Percentage scoring below 50%
English 82.2 74.1 63.7
Mathematics 85.3 80.2 42.3 62.4
Chemistry 82.9 56.6 57.6
Biology 75.2 39.3 37.9
Physics 89.9 86.1 83.3 89.5
Average 86.2 77.4 30 65.1 66.2 30

Source: MoE (2010, 2014)

As per the results of the second NLA conducted by the National Educational Assessment
and Examinations Agency (NEAEA) in 2014, at Grade 10, the national average score of
students in five subjects was found to be 40.64 per cent, which was less than the minimum
requirement (50%) set by the 1994 Policy. The mean score for Biology (46.94%) was
the highest, whereas the mean scores for Physics (35.45%) and Mathematics (37.01%)
were found to be the lowest. Only 13.9 per cent and 19.8 per cent of the students were
able to score 50 per cent and above, as well as 75 per cent and above in Physics and
Mathematics, respectively. Similarly, only 1.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent of the students
achieved 75 per cent and above in the same subjects. In the average score, 22.6 per cent
(i.e. 77.4% below 50%) of students scored 50 per cent showing an improvement from
2010 which averaged 13.8 per cent (i.e. 86.2% scoring below 50%) and above and only
3.1 per cent achieved 75 per cent and above (NEAEA 2014).
The national average score of Grade 12 was 45.52 per cent and Biology (56.78%)
was the only subject in which students scored above the minimum expected while all
the rest scored less than the 50 per cent achievement level. The mean score for Physics
(33.05%) was the lowest and much lower than the national average score (NEAEA
2014). According to the ESDP IV target, 70 per cent of the students were anticipated to
score 50 per cent and 25 per cent of them expected to score 75 per cent (MoE 2010).
However, the percentages of students who achieved 50 per cent and above were
Biology (62.1%), Chemistry (42.4%), Mathematics (37.6%), and English (36.3%). On
the other hand, the percentages of students who scored 75 per cent and above were
relatively higher in Biology (21.1%), Chemistry (10.8%) and Mathematics (9.7%) than
other subjects (NEAEA 2014).

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Comparisons with the baseline study and the ESDP IV target

Comparing the scores of the baseline study (2010), the current students’ achievement
showed varying degrees of increment ranging from 15.6 per cent in Biology to 3.8 per
cent in Physics in Grade 10 as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Grade 10 NLA comparisons by subject (2010 & 2014)

Source: NEAEA (2014)

In Grade 12, the study identified that there were varying degrees of decline in the
percentages ranging from Chemistry (2.0%) to Mathematics (20.1%), while mean score
increments were observed in English (10.4%) and Biology (1.4%) when compared with
the scores of the baseline study as indicated in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Grade 12 NLA comparisons by subject (2010 & 2014)

Source: NEAEA (2014)

The number of students who scored at least 50 per cent and 75 per cent and above for
both grades were found to be far lower than compared the ESDP IV target, although the
current study showed a big stride for Grade 10 but a decline for Grade 12. In Grade 10,

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

the number of students who scored 50 per cent and 75 per cent and above grew from
13.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent in the baseline study to 22.6 per cent and 3.10 per cent
in the second NLA study, respectively (NEAEA 2014), though the target set in ESDP
IV was 70 per cent for the former and 25 per cent for the latter. On the other hand, the
number of students who scored 50 per cent and 75 per cent and above declined from
34.9 per cent and 12.4 per cent to 33.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent in Grade 12.
It can be summarised from the above data that the average achievement scores
in the subjects tested were found to be low and most students in both grades were
unable to score at least 50 per cent. There were wide variations across subgroups too.
Males performed better than females in both grades in each subject. Students from
non-government schools performed better than their counterparts from government
schools. Emerging regions mostly performed worse when compared with the others.
The trend analysis made in terms of the Grade 10 national averages of each subject and
their average scores showed that there was a significant increase of achievements in all
subjects – except in Biology – while the increase in Physics was relatively good.

National examinations at grades 10 and 12

Students take nationally organised external examinations at the end of grades 10 and
12. These exams are conducted by the NEAEA. The tests are all paper based multiple
choices and are marked electronically; each learner currently takes a test in about 10
subjects.

National Grade 10 examination results

The results are expressed in terms of pass and fail; those who scored 50 per cent and
above are declared to have passed. In the 2012/13 school year, about 70 per cent of
students scored 2.00 and above (77% of boys and 61.9% of girls) and only 1.8 per cent
scored the highest grade point average (GPA) of 4.00 (MoE 2014). Because these results
are norm referenced, they cannot be regarded as an absolute measure, particularly during
a period of rapid enrolment expansion.

National Grade 12 examination results

In the 2013/14 school year, 61.7 per cent of the students who sat for the national exam
(53% of boys and 68.4% of girls) got placement for universities (MoE 2014). Given that
grades 11 and 12 are preparation for higher education and the great majority of students
who take this exam proceed to degree-level studies, it is significant that in 2010, close
to two-thirds of students who took the exam scored below 50 per cent.
In summary, only 39 per cent of the country’s adult population was literate in 2011.
But great strides have been made in education since 1994. Access to education has
surged, especially at the primary level, where more than 85 per cent of the relevant age

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

group is now in school and as a result the youth literacy rate increased from 34 per cent
in 2000 to 52 per cent in 2011(UNESCO 2014). At the secondary level, the GER for
grades 9–10 has more than doubled since 2000. Yet, key challenges remain in secondary
education:
• a low primary education completion rate constrains the growth of secondary
enrolments;
• access to secondary education remains inequitable; and
• levels of student learning are disappointing.

Policy implications
Ethiopia has made significant progress in improving enabling conditions for effective
learning. Yet, challenges remain, especially in the most disadvantaged areas, with 35
per cent of secondary schools having an insufficient number of classrooms and only
19.4% having internet access (MoE 2013). Many laboratories lack basic equipment and
supplies are also underutilised. Finally, the completion rate to Grade 8 is still low – 59
per cent in 2012 – and Parent Teacher Associations are often constrained in their ability
to contribute to a school’s educational performance. Therefore, it will be important to
agree on minimum enabling conditions for effective education service delivery. Hence,
the following are some of the issues that demand attention by the federal and regional
governments.

Strengthening governance and management

Over the past two decades, decentralisation has been one of the key reforms implemented
in Ethiopian schools, with important responsibilities transferred to the regions and
woredas. Non-earmarked and non-sector-specific block grants are now transferred from
the federal to the regional governments, which in turn transfer these grants to woreda
governments.
Ethiopia aspires to further deepen its decentralisation policies, specifically by
expanding the scope of School-Based Management (SBM). SBM can make a significant
contribution to achieving national secondary education goals because it substantially
enhances the effectiveness and efficiency of schools.
SBM involves transferring the authority for academic administration, financial
and human resources management, and procurement to the school level. The specific
features of the SBM model and the phasing of implementation require considerable
further analysis and broad stakeholder consultation. Ideally, a School Management
Committee (SMC) or School Board, formed by parents and under their leadership,
would have overall responsibility for school performance, including major management
decisions.

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

Diversifying the provision of secondary education

The ETP (TGE 1994) commits the government to creating the conditions needed to
encourage and support private investors to open schools and establish other education
and training institutions. Nevertheless, the government currently remains the almost
exclusive provider of general education, enrolling some 96 per cent of primary and
secondary students. Enrolments in non-government (private) secondary schools have
been increasing steadily since 2000; nevertheless, they represented only about 4.1 per
cent of total secondary enrolment by 2012. This share was much lower than that in
countries such as Mauritius (59%), Indonesia (49%), Chile (55%), Vietnam (21%),
Jordan (18%) or Ghana (15%).
Mobilising the non-governmental sector to support the development of secondary
education will require streamlining the regulatory framework and allowing the non-
governmental sector to respond to unsubsidised market demand on the order of roughly
10–20 per cent of the school-age population. The savings to the government budget
resulting from these strategies could be significant. Yet, implementation will require
substantial efforts to work out a partnership framework that is satisfactory to all parties.

Ensuring sustainable financing

Building an education system that effectively supports a middle-income economic
development trajectory requires financing for both expansion of access and sustained
quality improvement. To reach a GER of 80 per cent in secondary education by 2025,
projections indicate that public financing of 5.2 per cent of the GDP, complemented by
policy measures designed to utilise available resources more efficiently and mobilise
additional non-governmental resources, could help achieve sustainable financing of the
secondary subsector. These twin goals must largely be achieved with national resources,
as it is unlikely that external support will be increased beyond existing levels.

Expanding access
Progress toward universal general secondary education is predicated on the success
of current efforts to improve the quality of primary education and increase primary
graduation rates. It also requires that modalities be developed to make secondary
education easily accessible in rural areas. Inevitably, this means adopting a ‘small-
school’ strategy, that is, a model for delivering good-quality education in a cost-effective
way in secondary schools that have no more than two or three sections. These schools
will often simply be extensions of existing primary schools in which grades 9 and 10 are
integrated under a single principal, with shared common infrastructure.
In such schools, qualified subject teachers may be shared among grades 7–10 and
multigrade and multilevel classes may be offered in low population density areas. In
addition, innovative approaches, such as travelling teachers who teach a year-long

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

course in one semester and then move on to another school, may be required. Science
and Social Studies may need to be taught as respective integrated courses. Finally,
financial incentives may be needed to encourage teachers to work in remote areas and
information and communication technology used to support teachers and students (and
provide learning enrichment activities not otherwise easily available in rural areas).

School leader effectiveness

School improvement is critically dependent on the management skills of stakeholders.
The starting point here must be a sustained effort to enhance the effectiveness of school
leaders. Skills required of these leaders include instructional leadership, financial and
human resources management, forging effective working relationships with the line
staff of educational agencies, and winning the confidence of parents and SMCs. The
pay-off in terms of improved student learning performance is likely to be substantial.
Reaching this goal will require, among other things, competency-based selection
criteria for school leaders; well-designed training programmes prior to appointment;
decentralised arrangements for the continuous professional support and supervision of
school leaders; and effective professional networks for peer support and learning.

Establishing a body responsible for setting standards and accrediting teacher

education institutions
In contrast with primary education, the percentage of qualified teachers is higher in
secondary education. Nationally, of all the secondary teachers, 91.5 per cent are qualified
for their level of secondary teaching. There is, however, considerable variation by region
in the percentage of qualified teachers. Nationally, 90.8 per cent of female teachers
are qualified compared with 91.7 per cent of males. Amhara, Tigrai, Dire-Dawa, Addis
Ababa and Benishangul Gumuz have the highest proportions of qualified teachers –
each greater than 90 per cent. Afar, Gambella and Somali, on the other hand, each
have lower than 50 per cent of secondary school teachers with the relevant qualification
(MoE 2013).
However, the teaching in the classrooms remains primarily teacher centred, where
didactic instruction is the norm. There is little evidence of active student learning,
inquiry processes, meta cognitive skill development, or opportunities for creativity
(Gbre-eyesus 2007). Improving the quality of instruction involves not only ensuring
that necessary equipment and infrastructure are in place, but also improving the quality
of teaching. The latter goal requires a two-pronged strategy. The first prong is to develop
teachers’ instructional competence through pre- and in-service programmes. The second
prong is to implement a policy framework for teacher management that establishes clear
standards of teacher performance and provides incentives for teachers to reach these
standards.

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

The priority of teacher management should be to create, through gradual

enhancement of incentives, an environment in which these incentives become the main
driver of teachers’ professional development, as opposed to a professional development
system that mainly focuses on the supply side. There is considerable evidence that teacher
motivation may be the most critical element of effective teacher performance. This is
partly a function of salary and working conditions, but also of selection procedures and
criteria that emphasise the longer-term interests of teacher candidates and those in the
teaching profession. The starting point for improving the country’s teacher management
framework must be the definition of standards and indicators for expected teacher
performance. Eventually a standards-based teacher management system requires the
creation of a professional administrative body responsible for establishing standards
and accrediting teacher education institutions. This agency would be independent of
both the MoE and the universities, but governed by a board with broad representation
of all major stakeholders.

CONCLUSION
The data presented in the article indicates that a strong human resource base is an
important foundation for progressing toward a middle-income economy. It shows that a
rapid expansion of secondary education will be needed to support the country’s transition
from a low-income economy, with substantial subsistence agriculture, to a middle-
income economy, with an increased share of commercial agriculture, as well as growing
industrial and service sectors. While the large majority of children in Ethiopia now have
access to primary education, a major effort will be required to reach the 80 per cent GER
for general secondary education that is typical of LMICs. An equally significant effort
will be needed to expand access to preparatory secondary education beyond the current
comparatively modest target of 20 per cent. Sustained progress toward these targets will
entail rapid improvement in primary completion rates, careful management of the cost
per secondary student, and – perhaps most important – consistent efforts to manage the
quality of education, particularly that of mathematics and the sciences.
Another major consideration for the further development of secondary education
is meeting the needs of students who directly enter the labour market after completing
general secondary education. It is important to design a number of alternative pathways
to further education and training for these students. TVET programmes play an important
role in developing the human capital of countries whose economies increasingly depend
on manufacturing to drive economic growth. In the coming years, a large proportion of
TVET programmes will inevitably continue to be delivered by the private sector. As the
economy develops, companies will provide in-house training, many young people will
work in formal or informal apprenticeship arrangements, and many workers already
in the labour force will look for short skills-upgrading courses. An education system

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Gbre-eyesus Achieving Universal General Secondary Education in Ethiopia

that accounts for these diverse pathways to education and skills acquisition will be
imperative to support Ethiopia on its journey to becoming a middle-income economy.

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