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 Probability & Statistics
for Engineers & Scientists
This page intentionally left blank
Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists
NINTH EDITION

Ronald E. Walpole
Roanoke College
Raymond H. Myers
Virginia Tech
Sharon L. Myers
Radford University
Keying Ye
University of Texas at San Antonio

Prentice Hall
Editor in Chief: Deirdre Lynch
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designations have been printed in initial caps or all caps.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Probability & statistics for engineers & scientists/Ronald E. Walpole . . . [et al.] — 9th ed.
p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-321-62911-1
1. Engineering—Statistical methods. 2. Probabilities. I. Walpole, Ronald E.
TA340.P738 2011
519.02’462–dc22
2010004857

Copyright  c 2012, 2007, 2002 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the
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a written request to Pearson Education, Inc., Rights and Contracts Department, 501 Boylston Street, Suite 900,
Boston, MA 02116, fax your request to 617-671-3447, or e-mail at http://www.pearsoned.com/legal/permissions.htm.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10—EB—14 13 12 11 10

ISBN 10: 0-321-62911-6

ISBN 13: 978-0-321-62911-1
 This book is dedicated to

Billy and Julie

R.H.M. and S.L.M.
Limin, Carolyn and Emily
K.Y.
This page intentionally left blank
Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
1 Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Overview: Statistical Inference, Samples, Populations, and the
Role of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Sampling Procedures; Collection of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 Measures of Location: The Sample Mean and Median . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.4 Measures of Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.5 Discrete and Continuous Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.6 Statistical Modeling, Scientific Inspection, and Graphical Diag-
nostics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.7 General Types of Statistical Studies: Designed Experiment,
Observational Study, and Retrospective Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

2 Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.1 Sample Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.2 Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.3 Counting Sample Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.4 Probability of an Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.5 Additive Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2.6 Conditional Probability, Independence, and the Product Rule . . . 62
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
2.7 Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
viii Contents

2.8 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material

in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

3 Random Variables and Probability Distributions . . . . . . 81

3.1 Concept of a Random Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.2 Discrete Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.3 Continuous Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
3.4 Joint Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
3.5 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

4 Mathematical Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

4.1 Mean of a Random Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
4.2 Variance and Covariance of Random Variables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
4.3 Means and Variances of Linear Combinations of Random Variables 128
4.4 Chebyshev’s Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
4.5 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

5 Some Discrete Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

5.1 Introduction and Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
5.2 Binomial and Multinomial Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
5.3 Hypergeometric Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
5.4 Negative Binomial and Geometric Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
5.5 Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
5.6 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
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Contents ix

6 Some Continuous Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

6.1 Continuous Uniform Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
6.2 Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
6.3 Areas under the Normal Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
6.4 Applications of the Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
6.5 Normal Approximation to the Binomial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
6.6 Gamma and Exponential Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
6.7 Chi-Squared Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
6.8 Beta Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
6.9 Lognormal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
6.10 Weibull Distribution (Optional) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
6.11 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

7 Functions of Random Variables (Optional) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
7.2 Transformations of Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
7.3 Moments and Moment-Generating Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

8 Fundamental Sampling Distributions and

Data Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
8.1 Random Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
8.2 Some Important Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
8.3 Sampling Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
8.4 Sampling Distribution of Means and the Central Limit Theorem . 233
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
8.5 Sampling Distribution of S 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
8.6 t-Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
8.7 F -Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
8.8 Quantile and Probability Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
8.9 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
x Contents

9 One- and Two-Sample Estimation Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
9.2 Statistical Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
9.3 Classical Methods of Estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
9.4 Single Sample: Estimating the Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
9.5 Standard Error of a Point Estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276
9.6 Prediction Intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
9.7 Tolerance Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
9.8 Two Samples: Estimating the Difference between Two Means . . . 285
9.9 Paired Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
9.10 Single Sample: Estimating a Proportion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
9.11 Two Samples: Estimating the Difference between Two Proportions 300
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
9.12 Single Sample: Estimating the Variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
9.13 Two Samples: Estimating the Ratio of Two Variances . . . . . . . . . . . 305
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
9.14 Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Optional) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
9.15 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316

10 One- and Two-Sample Tests of Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319

10.1 Statistical Hypotheses: General Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
10.2 Testing a Statistical Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
10.3 The Use of P -Values for Decision Making in Testing Hypotheses . 331
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
10.4 Single Sample: Tests Concerning a Single Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
10.5 Two Samples: Tests on Two Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
10.6 Choice of Sample Size for Testing Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
10.7 Graphical Methods for Comparing Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356
10.8 One Sample: Test on a Single Proportion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360
10.9 Two Samples: Tests on Two Proportions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
10.10 One- and Two-Sample Tests Concerning Variances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
10.11 Goodness-of-Fit Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370
10.12 Test for Independence (Categorical Data) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
Contents xi

10.13 Test for Homogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376

10.14 Two-Sample Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
10.15 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386

11 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389

11.1 Introduction to Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
11.2 The Simple Linear Regression Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390
11.3 Least Squares and the Fitted Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398
11.4 Properties of the Least Squares Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400
11.5 Inferences Concerning the Regression Coefficients. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
11.6 Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
11.7 Choice of a Regression Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414
11.8 Analysis-of-Variance Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414
11.9 Test for Linearity of Regression: Data with Repeated Observations 416
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
11.10 Data Plots and Transformations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424
11.11 Simple Linear Regression Case Study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428
11.12 Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436
11.13 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442

12 Multiple Linear Regression and Certain

Nonlinear Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
12.2 Estimating the Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444
12.3 Linear Regression Model Using Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450
12.4 Properties of the Least Squares Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453
12.5 Inferences in Multiple Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
12.6 Choice of a Fitted Model through Hypothesis Testing . . . . . . . . . . . 462
12.7 Special Case of Orthogonality (Optional) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471
12.8 Categorical or Indicator Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472
xii Contents

Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
12.9 Sequential Methods for Model Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
12.10 Study of Residuals and Violation of Assumptions (Model Check-
ing) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482
12.11 Cross Validation, Cp , and Other Criteria for Model Selection . . . . 487
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494
12.12 Special Nonlinear Models for Nonideal Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501
12.13 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506

13 One-Factor Experiments: General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507

13.1 Analysis-of-Variance Technique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507
13.2 The Strategy of Experimental Design. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508
13.3 One-Way Analysis of Variance: Completely Randomized Design
(One-Way ANOVA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509
13.4 Tests for the Equality of Several Variances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518
13.5 Single-Degree-of-Freedom Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 520
13.6 Multiple Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
13.7 Comparing a Set of Treatments in Blocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532
13.8 Randomized Complete Block Designs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533
13.9 Graphical Methods and Model Checking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540
13.10 Data Transformations in Analysis of Variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545
13.11 Random Effects Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547
13.12 Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555
13.13 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559

14 Factorial Experiments (Two or More Factors) . . . . . . . . . . 561

14.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 561
14.2 Interaction in the Two-Factor Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562
14.3 Two-Factor Analysis of Variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 575
14.4 Three-Factor Experiments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586
Contents xiii

14.5 Factorial Experiments for Random Effects and Mixed Models. . . . 588
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594
14.6 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596

15 2k Factorial Experiments and Fractions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597

15.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597
15.2 The 2k Factorial: Calculation of Effects and Analysis of Variance 598
15.3 Nonreplicated 2k Factorial Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609
15.4 Factorial Experiments in a Regression Setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 612
15.5 The Orthogonal Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 625
15.6 Fractional Factorial Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 626
15.7 Analysis of Fractional Factorial Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 632
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 634
15.8 Higher Fractions and Screening Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 636
15.9 Construction of Resolution III and IV Designs with 8, 16, and 32
Design Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 637
15.10 Other Two-Level Resolution III Designs; The Plackett-Burman
Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 638
15.11 Introduction to Response Surface Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 639
15.12 Robust Parameter Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 643
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 652
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 653
15.13 Potential Misconceptions and Hazards; Relationship to Material
in Other Chapters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 654

16 Nonparametric Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655

16.1 Nonparametric Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655
16.2 Signed-Rank Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 660
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 663
16.3 Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665
16.4 Kruskal-Wallis Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 668
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 670
16.5 Runs Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 671
16.6 Tolerance Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674
16.7 Rank Correlation Coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 677
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 679
xiv Contents

17 Statistical Quality Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681

17.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681
17.2 Nature of the Control Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 683
17.3 Purposes of the Control Chart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 683
17.4 Control Charts for Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684
17.5 Control Charts for Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 697
17.6 Cusum Control Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705
Review Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 706

18 Bayesian Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 709

18.1 Bayesian Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 709
18.2 Bayesian Inferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 710
18.3 Bayes Estimates Using Decision Theory Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . 717
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 718

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 721

Appendix A: Statistical Tables and Proofs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 725

Appendix B: Answers to Odd-Numbered Non-Review

Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 769

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 785
Preface

General Approach and Mathematical Level

Our emphasis in creating the ninth edition is less on adding new material and more
on providing clarity and deeper understanding. This objective was accomplished in
part by including new end-of-chapter material that adds connective tissue between
chapters. We affectionately call these comments at the end of the chapter “Pot
Holes.” They are very useful to remind students of the big picture and how each
chapter fits into that picture, and they aid the student in learning about limitations
and pitfalls that may result if procedures are misused. A deeper understanding
of real-world use of statistics is made available through class projects, which were
added in several chapters. These projects provide the opportunity for students
alone, or in groups, to gather their own experimental data and draw inferences. In
some cases, the work involves a problem whose solution will illustrate the meaning
of a concept or provide an empirical understanding of an important statistical
result. Some existing examples were expanded and new ones were introduced to
create “case studies,” in which commentary is provided to give the student a clear
understanding of a statistical concept in the context of a practical situation.
In this edition, we continue to emphasize a balance between theory and appli-
cations. Calculus and other types of mathematical support (e.g., linear algebra)
are used at about the same level as in previous editions. The coverage of an-
alytical tools in statistics is enhanced with the use of calculus when discussion
centers on rules and concepts in probability. Probability distributions and sta-
tistical inference are highlighted in Chapters 2 through 10. Linear algebra and
matrices are very lightly applied in Chapters 11 through 15, where linear regres-
sion and analysis of variance are covered. Students using this text should have
had the equivalent of one semester of differential and integral calculus. Linear
algebra is helpful but not necessary so long as the section in Chapter 12 on mul-
tiple linear regression using matrix algebra is not covered by the instructor. As
in previous editions, a large number of exercises that deal with real-life scientific
and engineering applications are available to challenge the student. The many
data sets associated with the exercises are available for download from the website
http://www.pearsonhighered.com/datasets.

xv
xvi Preface

Summary of the Changes in the Ninth Edition

• Class projects were added in several chapters to provide a deeper understand-

ing of the real-world use of statistics. Students are asked to produce or gather
their own experimental data and draw inferences from these data.
• More case studies were added and others expanded to help students under-
stand the statistical methods being presented in the context of a real-life situ-
ation. For example, the interpretation of confidence limits, prediction limits,
and tolerance limits is given using a real-life situation.
• “Pot Holes” were added at the end of some chapters and expanded in others.
These comments are intended to present each chapter in the context of the
big picture and discuss how the chapters relate to one another. They also
provide cautions about the possible misuse of statistical techniques presented
in the chapter.
• Chapter 1 has been enhanced to include more on single-number statistics as
well as graphical techniques. New fundamental material on sampling and
experimental design is presented.
• Examples added to Chapter 8 on sampling distributions are intended to moti-
vate P -values and hypothesis testing. This prepares the student for the more
challenging material on these topics that will be presented in Chapter 10.
• Chapter 12 contains additional development regarding the effect of a single
regression variable in a model in which collinearity with other variables is
severe.
• Chapter 15 now introduces material on the important topic of response surface
methodology (RSM). The use of noise variables in RSM allows the illustration
of mean and variance (dual response surface) modeling.
• The central composite design (CCD) is introduced in Chapter 15.
• More examples are given in Chapter 18, and the discussion of using Bayesian
methods for statistical decision making has been enhanced.

Content and Course Planning

This text is designed for either a one- or a two-semester course. A reasonable
plan for a one-semester course might include Chapters 1 through 10. This would
result in a curriculum that concluded with the fundamentals of both estimation
and hypothesis testing. Instructors who desire that students be exposed to simple
linear regression may wish to include a portion of Chapter 11. For instructors
who desire to have analysis of variance included rather than regression, the one-
semester course may include Chapter 13 rather than Chapters 11 and 12. Chapter
13 features one-factor analysis of variance. Another option is to eliminate portions
of Chapters 5 and/or 6 as well as Chapter 7. With this option, one or more of
the discrete or continuous distributions in Chapters 5 and 6 may be eliminated.
These distributions include the negative binomial, geometric, gamma, Weibull,
beta, and log normal distributions. Other features that one might consider re-
moving from a one-semester curriculum include maximum likelihood estimation,
Preface xvii

prediction, and/or tolerance limits in Chapter 9. A one-semester curriculum has

built-in flexibility, depending on the relative interest of the instructor in regression,
analysis of variance, experimental design, and response surface methods (Chapter
15). There are several discrete and continuous distributions (Chapters 5 and 6)
that have applications in a variety of engineering and scientific areas.
Chapters 11 through 18 contain substantial material that can be added for the
second semester of a two-semester course. The material on simple and multiple
linear regression is in Chapters 11 and 12, respectively. Chapter 12 alone offers a
substantial amount of flexibility. Multiple linear regression includes such “special
topics” as categorical or indicator variables, sequential methods of model selection
such as stepwise regression, the study of residuals for the detection of violations
of assumptions, cross validation and the use of the PRESS statistic as well as
Cp , and logistic regression. The use of orthogonal regressors, a precursor to the
experimental design in Chapter 15, is highlighted. Chapters 13 and 14 offer a
relatively large amount of material on analysis of variance (ANOVA) with fixed,
random, and mixed models. Chapter 15 highlights the application of two-level
designs in the context of full and fractional factorial experiments (2k ). Special
screening designs are illustrated. Chapter 15 also features a new section on response
surface methodology (RSM) to illustrate the use of experimental design for finding
optimal process conditions. The fitting of a second order model through the use of
a central composite design is discussed. RSM is expanded to cover the analysis of
robust parameter design type problems. Noise variables are used to accommodate
dual response surface models. Chapters 16, 17, and 18 contain a moderate amount
of material on nonparametric statistics, quality control, and Bayesian inference.
Chapter 1 is an overview of statistical inference presented on a mathematically
simple level. It has been expanded from the eighth edition to more thoroughly
cover single-number statistics and graphical techniques. It is designed to give
students a preliminary presentation of elementary concepts that will allow them to
understand more involved details that follow. Elementary concepts in sampling,
data collection, and experimental design are presented, and rudimentary aspects
of graphical tools are introduced, as well as a sense of what is garnered from a
data set. Stem-and-leaf plots and box-and-whisker plots have been added. Graphs
are better organized and labeled. The discussion of uncertainty and variation in
a system is thorough and well illustrated. There are examples of how to sort
out the important characteristics of a scientific process or system, and these ideas
are illustrated in practical settings such as manufacturing processes, biomedical
studies, and studies of biological and other scientific systems. A contrast is made
between the use of discrete and continuous data. Emphasis is placed on the use
of models and the information concerning statistical models that can be obtained
from graphical tools.
Chapters 2, 3, and 4 deal with basic probability as well as discrete and contin-
uous random variables. Chapters 5 and 6 focus on specific discrete and continuous
distributions as well as relationships among them. These chapters also highlight
examples of applications of the distributions in real-life scientific and engineering
studies. Examples, case studies, and a large number of exercises edify the student
concerning the use of these distributions. Projects bring the practical use of these
distributions to life through group work. Chapter 7 is the most theoretical chapter
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exciting offers!
xviii Preface

in the text. It deals with transformation of random variables and will likely not be
used unless the instructor wishes to teach a relatively theoretical course. Chapter
8 contains graphical material, expanding on the more elementary set of graphi-
cal tools presented and illustrated in Chapter 1. Probability plotting is discussed
and illustrated with examples. The very important concept of sampling distribu-
tions is presented thoroughly, and illustrations are given that involve the central
limit theorem and the distribution of a sample variance under normal, independent
(i.i.d.) sampling. The t and F distributions are introduced to motivate their use
in chapters to follow. New material in Chapter 8 helps the student to visualize the
importance of hypothesis testing, motivating the concept of a P -value.
Chapter 9 contains material on one- and two-sample point and interval esti-
mation. A thorough discussion with examples points out the contrast between the
different types of intervals—confidence intervals, prediction intervals, and toler-
ance intervals. A case study illustrates the three types of statistical intervals in the
context of a manufacturing situation. This case study highlights the differences
among the intervals, their sources, and the assumptions made in their develop-
ment, as well as what type of scientific study or question requires the use of each
one. A new approximation method has been added for the inference concerning a
proportion. Chapter 10 begins with a basic presentation on the pragmatic mean-
ing of hypothesis testing, with emphasis on such fundamental concepts as null and
alternative hypotheses, the role of probability and the P -value, and the power of
a test. Following this, illustrations are given of tests concerning one and two sam-
ples under standard conditions. The two-sample t-test with paired observations
is also described. A case study helps the student to develop a clear picture of
what interaction among factors really means as well as the dangers that can arise
when interaction between treatments and experimental units exists. At the end of
Chapter 10 is a very important section that relates Chapters 9 and 10 (estimation
and hypothesis testing) to Chapters 11 through 16, where statistical modeling is
prominent. It is important that the student be aware of the strong connection.
Chapters 11 and 12 contain material on simple and multiple linear regression,
respectively. Considerably more attention is given in this edition to the effect that
collinearity among the regression variables plays. A situation is presented that
shows how the role of a single regression variable can depend in large part on what
regressors are in the model with it. The sequential model selection procedures (for-
ward, backward, stepwise, etc.) are then revisited in regard to this concept, and
the rationale for using certain P -values with these procedures is provided. Chap-
ter 12 offers material on nonlinear modeling with a special presentation of logistic
regression, which has applications in engineering and the biological sciences. The
material on multiple regression is quite extensive and thus provides considerable
flexibility for the instructor, as indicated earlier. At the end of Chapter 12 is com-
mentary relating that chapter to Chapters 14 and 15. Several features were added
that provide a better understanding of the material in general. For example, the
end-of-chapter material deals with cautions and difficulties one might encounter.
It is pointed out that there are types of responses that occur naturally in practice
(e.g. proportion responses, count responses, and several others) with which stan-
dard least squares regression should not be used because standard assumptions do
not hold and violation of assumptions may induce serious errors. The suggestion is
Preface xix

made that data transformation on the response may alleviate the problem in some
cases. Flexibility is again available in Chapters 13 and 14, on the topic of analysis
of variance. Chapter 13 covers one-factor ANOVA in the context of a completely
randomized design. Complementary topics include tests on variances and multiple
comparisons. Comparisons of treatments in blocks are highlighted, along with the
topic of randomized complete blocks. Graphical methods are extended to ANOVA
to aid the student in supplementing the formal inference with a pictorial type of in-
ference that can aid scientists and engineers in presenting material. A new project
is given in which students incorporate the appropriate randomization into each
plan and use graphical techniques and P -values in reporting the results. Chapter
14 extends the material in Chapter 13 to accommodate two or more factors that
are in a factorial structure. The ANOVA presentation in Chapter 14 includes work
in both random and fixed effects models. Chapter 15 offers material associated
with 2k factorial designs; examples and case studies present the use of screening
designs and special higher fractions of the 2k . Two new and special features are
the presentations of response surface methodology (RSM) and robust parameter
design. These topics are linked in a case study that describes and illustrates a
dual response surface design and analysis featuring the use of process mean and
variance response surfaces.

Computer Software
Case studies, beginning in Chapter 8, feature computer printout and graphical
material generated using both SAS and MINITAB. The inclusion of the computer
reflects our belief that students should have the experience of reading and inter-
preting computer printout and graphics, even if the software in the text is not that
which is used by the instructor. Exposure to more than one type of software can
broaden the experience base for the student. There is no reason to believe that
the software used in the course will be that which the student will be called upon
to use in practice following graduation. Examples and case studies in the text are
supplemented, where appropriate, by various types of residual plots, quantile plots,
normal probability plots, and other plots. Such plots are particularly prevalent in
Chapters 11 through 15.

Supplements
Instructor’s Solutions Manual. This resource contains worked-out solutions to all
text exercises and is available for download from Pearson Education’s Instructor
Resource Center.

Student Solutions Manual ISBN-10: 0-321-64013-6; ISBN-13: 978-0-321-64013-0.

Featuring complete solutions to selected exercises, this is a great tool for students
as they study and work through the problem material.
PowerPoint R
Lecture Slides ISBN-10: 0-321-73731-8; ISBN-13: 978-0-321-73731-
1. These slides include most of the figures and tables from the text. Slides are
available to download from Pearson Education’s Instructor Resource Center.
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
"Oh," said Zep, feeling rather proud, "I just picked it up, I guess."
"Well," said the monarch, "there is nothing like it to my mind.
Perhaps you've read my famous poem on the subject? Have you?"
"No," said Zep, "I never heard of it."
"Humph!" said the Emperor, looking rather disappointed. "You're not
very literary, are you? However, there is no reason why you should
not hear it now. Listen."

When I was a lad, I said to myself

As I hooked the jam from the pantry shelf,
"I may grow up and I may grow old
But I hope I'll never do as I'm told.
"For all the fun I've ever had,
"Has always come from being bad."

So I started out on my wild career,

And I did so well that I'm Emperor here,
Where you're told to do this, and you simply don't—
And you're asked to do that, and you say you won't.
And my what a lot of fun I've had—
For I never mind, and I'm awful bad.

"You can see," said the Emperor, when he had finished, "what a
splendid place you have come to. And as the years pass, I hope you
may find it even more delightful."
"As the years pass," repeated Zep. "Why—why, I can't stay here for
years. What would my folks say?"
"If you ask me," put in the Poppykok, "I should say they'd say: 'thank
goodness, he's gone at last.'"
"Yes," said the Emperor, "it's only in Obstinate Town that people like
boys like you. Everywhere else they think you're a nuisance. Didn't
you know that?"
"Why—why, no," said Zep. "I—I thought everybody liked me."
"Ho, ho, ho!" roared the Poppykok, shaking with merriment.
"Hee, hee, hee!" cackled the Emperor, "my word, that's good! You
ought to send that to a comic paper. He thought everybody liked
him."
"Well," said Zep, sulkily, "they always acted as though they did. I—I
like people to like me. But as long as they don't I'll never go back."
"That's the stuff," said the Emperor. "Don't you do it. You stay here
with me and enjoy yourself. Do as you please. Be as cranky as you
like. Why, I wouldn't be surprised if you'd be a popular idol some day
if you go on the way you've begun."
So Zep settled down in Obstinate Town determined to enjoy himself
with all his might. And because he was a prince, the Emperor let him
live in the palace and eat his meals at the royal table.
However, he did not care much for the meals. You never could get
what you wanted. When you asked the royal butler for cold chicken,
he would always tell you he would rather you took cold ham. And if
you wanted stewed kidneys, the butler right away said he preferred
to give you broiled oysters. No matter what you asked for, the
stubborn old butler always insisted on giving you something else,
whether you liked it or not. And such an arrangement made Zep
awfully cross.
"I don't see why you have such a butler," he said to the Emperor.
"When I ask our butler at home for anything, he gives it to me quick.
He wouldn't dare give me anything else. If he did my father would
hang him."
"Humph!" responded the Emperor, "it seems to me your father must
be a very cruel person. The idea of hanging any one for wanting his
own way."
"But," said Zep, "it's so—so inconvenient. If they have their own way
how can you have yours?"
"Well," said the Emperor, "you can't, with a butler, unless you go to
the pantry and help yourself. And yet, why shouldn't he have his way
as well as you? Why shouldn't he?"
And the Prince did not know what to say to that. But nevertheless it
was tough to have every one else having their own way as well as
you. When you got in a trolley car and told the conductor to let you
off at a certain street, he would stop the car at another street, and
unless you were stronger than he, would put you off there no matter
how much you struggled and yelled. And one day, when the Emperor
and Zep were put off six blocks from their destination, the monarch
was dreadfully angry.
"I know I told you I thought other people ought to have their own way
the same as you and I," he said to Zep, "but when a conductor not
only puts me off his car before I want to get off, but kicks me into the
bargain, it's too much."
"That's what I think," said Zep, "and if I were you I'd issue a royal
decree saying that only the upper classes can have their own way
always, and that the lower classes can only have their own way,
when it suits the upper classes."
"A good idea," said the Emperor, "I'll do it."
And despite the fact that it made the lower classes fairly purple with
indignation, the decree was issued at once, and Zep, and the
Emperor, and the rest of the upper classes, did as they liked
whenever they wanted to, and had a fine time doing it.
"I tell you what," said the Emperor to the Prince one morning after
breakfast as he finished reading the paper, "that was a grand idea of
yours, Zep, about letting the lower classes have their own way only
when it suited us. Life has been much sweeter ever since."
"I think so, too," said Zep, "except that if nobody else could have
their own way, it would be sweeter still."
"Hum," said the monarch, "I never thought of that. And the more I
think of it, the more I think you're right. I know what I'll do. I'll issue
another decree putting all the upper classes into the lower classes,
except myself. Then I can do whatever I want, no matter what
anybody says."
"But," said Zep, "you wouldn't put me in the lower classes, would
you?"
"Why not," replied the Emperor. "Suppose I wanted my own way
about something at the same time that you wanted your own way
about it, the only way it could be managed without a fight, would be
for you to be in the lower classes where you couldn't have your own
way unless it suited me. See?"
"Yes," said Zep, sulkily, "I see, but I don't think it's fair. Why not put
yourself in the lower classes and let me stay in the upper class?"
"Impossible," said the Emperor, "for if any one ever belonged to the
upper classes an Emperor does."
"So does a prince," said Zep.
"Not necessarily," replied the monarch. "I had a dog named Prince
once, but you never heard of a dog named Emperor, did you?"
And as Zep could think of nothing to say to that, the Emperor issued
his decree, and Zep and all the rest of the upper classes were put in
the lower classes, and the monarch enjoyed himself more than ever.
But if the Emperor enjoyed himself, Zep and the rest of the upper
classes did not. For if they wanted to do something the Emperor
always wanted them to do something different. And if he did not want
that, he wanted them to do something nobody could do. And as Zep
lived in the palace he had it worse than anybody else.
He was told to hold his breath for an hour; to stand on his ear for half
an hour, and not wink for fifteen minutes. And when he did not do
what he was told because he could not, the Emperor stuck pins in
him and dared him to yell.
"See here," said Zep to the monarch, "I used to like you but I don't a
bit any more. I'm going back home right off."
"Very well," said the Emperor, "go ahead. I'm tired of you anyway.
The idea of a strong, healthy boy not being able to stand on his ear,
and making such a fuss, too, because a few pins are stuck in him.
Go on, go back home."
"But," said Zep, "how will I get there? I—I don't know the way."
"Of course you don't," replied the monarch, "nobody does. There
isn't any way."
"Isn't any way?" repeated the Prince in a tone of horror. "Why—why,
have I got to stay here with you always?"
The Emperor nodded. "Sure thing, unless a Kokkipop sends you
back. The Poppykoks bring you here and the Kokkipops send you
back. But as no one ever wants to go back it's mighty hard to find a
Kokkipop, so I guess I'll be sticking pins in you for some time yet.
Ho, ho, ho!"
Well, you can be sure when the Emperor said that and laughed
about it, too, Zep felt about as gloomy as he ever had in his life.
"Oh, dear," he said, "what on earth shall I do? If only I can get away
from this nasty old place I'll never want my own way again. I'll be a
different boy. I never—"
"Here, here," put in the Emperor, sternly, "stop that talk. You mustn't
say such things as that. No one ever talks about not wanting their
own way in Obstinate Town. It's downright treason. Do you want to
go to prison? But anyhow, I don't suppose you meant it."
"Indeed, I did," said Zep, "I meant every word I said. I'm tired of
having my own way—it's silly. Look at the mess it's got me into. I'm
going to be different—"
"Stop!" shrieked the Emperor, at the top of his lungs, "stop, I say!
You'll have a Kokkipop here in another moment, and oh, how I hate
'em. I hate 'em worse than—than spiders. And—and, my goodness
gracious sakes alive, you've brought one—you've brought one. Run,
run, or the Kokkipop will get you!"
And with that the Emperor dived under his throne, while the Prince,
looking about with a startled air, did not know whether to flee or not.
And then, as he hesitated, a very brisk old gentleman, dressed in
bright yellow, came into the room.
"Did you call?" he asked Zep.
"Call," said the boy, "why—why, no. What do you mean?"
"Did you call for a Kokkipop?" repeated the other testily. "And for
mercy's sake don't say you didn't, for I've been waiting for a call all
my life. I was a young man when I joined the Kokkipops, and in all
that time I have never been called until now. So I hope you did call.
Did you?"
"Well," said Zep, "I said I wanted to go home, if that's what you
mean."
"And you said you didn't want your own way any more, didn't you?"
inquired the Kokkipop, eagerly.
"Yes," replied the Prince, "I did. And I don't."
"He does, too," put in the Emperor, sticking his head out from under
his throne. "He doesn't mean what he says. He's just mad at me for
sticking pins in him."
"I don't believe it," said the Kokkipop, scowling at the Emperor,
"you're just trying to keep me out of a job." Then he turned to the
Prince. "You did mean what you said, didn't you?"
"I certainly did," said Zep, "and—"
"Whoopee!" yelled the Kokkipop, joyfully, "then I have got a job at
last."
Whereupon he took off his coat, rolled up his sleeves, and began to
paste magic postage stamps all over the Prince. "There," he said,
standing off to admire his work, "I guess that will take you back all
right."
"Take him back," sneered the Emperor, crawling from under his
throne, "why it'll take him twice over. You've put excess postage on
him. Shows what a Kokkipop knows about his business."
"Is that so," retorted the Kokkipop, "well, I know enough to send this
boy where you won't stick pins in him any more, and where he won't
want his own way any more." He turned to Zep. "Isn't that so?"
"Yes, indeed," said the Prince.
"Then," responded the Kokkipop, "here's to a quick and comfortable
trip. Good-by, I'll see you later."
"No—wait!" shouted the Emperor, running toward Zep, "don't go. I'll
put you in the upper classes again. I'll—"
But it was no use. Once again Zep felt himself leap into the air, and
whiz, and whiz, and whiz, even faster than he had before. And then
just as he was beginning to get used to the whizzing and rather
enjoy it, he commenced to descend in a graceful curve, and
presently landed with a bump in the gardens adjoining his father's
palace. And there, sitting on the grass, was the Kokkipop waiting for
him.
"Greeting," said the Kokkipop, "did you have a nice trip?"
"Fine," said Zep, "but of course I'm glad it's over and that I'm safe
home again. And of course I'm awfully obliged to you for getting me
out of such a scrape."
"Oh, that's all right," said the Kokkipop, as he peeled off the magic
postage stamps, "it's been a pleasure to help you. And who knows
but you may try to have your own way again and be taken back to
Obstinate Town. And if you do, don't forget I'm always glad to get a
job."
"All right," said Zep, "I won't, but I never expect to visit Obstinate
Town again if I can help it."
And sure enough Zep never did. From that moment he was a
changed boy, so much so that it really worried his father, the king.
"I don't understand it," said the King to his Prime Minister. "He does
just what I tell him and never whines; and when he takes a walk he
jumps about a foot if a leaf falls on him. I don't understand it."
But if the King did not, Zep did, and was determined no Poppykok
should get another chance at him.
 TOOBAD THE TAILOR
Once there lived in the city of Vex a tailor named Toobad, which was
a very good name for him, for he really was too bad for anything, in
fact, he was downright wicked. And not only was he wicked but he
was also deceitful, because he was really not a tailor at all but an
enchanter or conjuror, and only practiced a tailor's trade to fool the
fathers, and grandfathers, and uncles, and big brothers of the little
boys of Vex, and make them pay him money. And this is the way he
did it:
He put a sign in his window and offered to make clothes for
gentlemen very, very cheap out of the very, very best materials that
would never wear out, and of course when he offered to do that all
the fathers, and grandfathers, and uncles, and big brothers went and
ordered their suits from him as quick as they could. But after the
clothes were made and the fathers, and grandfathers, and uncles,
and big brothers had put them on, then they found out, when it was
too late, what sort of a person Toobad was, for they had to keep on
paying, and paying, and paying for the clothes forever and forever. If
they did not the suits they were wearing got tighter and tighter until
their breath was almost squeezed out of them.
It was no use to try to get the clothes off because they simply would
not come off. So you can imagine how cross and miserable all the
fathers, and grandfathers, and uncles, and big brothers in Vex were.
Now there were lots of little boys in Vex, but the most interesting one
was a bright little fellow named Winn, because in his family there
happened to be a father, and a grandfather, and an uncle, and a big
brother all wearing suits made by Toobad the Tailor, whereas the
other boys only had a father, or a grandfather, or an uncle, or a big
brother. None of them had all four together, and therefore did not
have as much cause to dislike Toobad as Winn had.
Of course when Winn's father, and grandfather, and his uncle and
his big brother, had paid for their suits once and Toobad had told
them they must keep right on paying every week, they said they
would not. But after the suits had squeezed them once or twice, and
after they had tried to get the clothes off and found they could not,
they changed their minds. And every Saturday night as soon as they
got their salaries they rushed right down to Toobad's shop and paid
him, so they would have a comfortable Sunday, which did not please
Winn's mother at all because it left very little to buy food with.
"Good gracious," she used to say to Winn's father, and grandfather,
and uncle, and big brother, "if you keep on giving that tailor half your
money, I don't know how I'll get along."
"Indeed," said Winn's father, who was very fat, "and if I don't pay it I
don't know how I'll get along. I've got to breathe, haven't I?"
"Yes," said Winn's grandfather, and his uncle, and his big brother,
who were all as fat as his father, "we would much rather breathe
than eat."
"All right, then," said Winn's mother, "go ahead and breathe but don't
blame me if you starve also, for food is so high, I can buy very little
with the money you give me."
And when she said that Winn's father, and his grandfather, and his
uncle, and his big brother would groan awfully, which made Winn
and his mother as blue as indigo, for they knew if Toobad was not
paid, the clothes Winn's father, and grandfather, and uncle and big
brother wore would squeeze them tighter and tighter so they could
not work at all, and yet if he was paid there would not be enough
money left to keep the wolf from the door.
So finally Winn determined to go and see Toobad and try and coax
him not to be so hard on his folks. "Maybe if I offer to be his errand
boy," he said, "he'll agree to let us stop paying for a while until we
catch up with our grocery bills."
But when he got to the tailor's shop he had a very hard time to coax
Toobad into having an errand boy. "No, no," said the enchanter,
testily, "I don't need an errand boy, and even if I did need one I need
the money your family pays me much more."
"But think how stylish it is for a tailor to have an errand boy," said
Winn. "All fashionable tailors send clothes home to their customers.
They never ask customers to come after their clothes. I should think
you'd be ashamed not to have an errand boy."
So, finally, after talking and talking, Toobad agreed to hire Winn as
his errand boy, and instead of giving him wages to let his family stop
paying for their clothes for a few weeks.
"But remember this," said the tailor, "you are not to tell any one about
the arrangement, because if you do all my customers will want to
stop paying until they get caught up on their grocery bills."
So Winn promised to keep the matter secret and the next morning
started in on his duties.
Now it happened that one of the first persons he delivered clothes to
was a second cousin of his mother's aunt. This second cousin had
not heard of the trouble in Winn's family because Winn's father, and
grandfather, and uncle, and big brother had been afraid to tell any
one what Toobad had done to them for fear their clothes would
squeeze them worse than ever. So when Winn delivered his
mother's aunt's second cousin's clothes he did not know whether to
warn him about putting them on or not. And while he was trying to
make up his mind about it, his mother's aunt's second cousin went
into another room to get the money to pay for the clothes, and when
he came out he had the clothes on.
"Gee whiz," he said proudly, "don't they fit me grand?"
"Maybe they do," said Winn, "but I was just going to tell you not to
put them on, because now you can't get them off, and you've got to
keep on paying for them forever and forever."
"What!" yelled his mother's aunt's second cousin.
And then with another yell he began tearing at the clothes with all his
might, trying to get them off, but of course it was no use for although
he almost turned himself inside out, they stuck to him like sticking
plaster.

He began tearing at his clothes with all his might

"You're a nice one!" he shouted, shaking his finger under Winn's

nose. "You ought to be arrested. How dared you sit there and let me
put these awful things on? I just hope your father, and your
grandfather, and your uncle, and your big brother get stuck the same
way. I certainly do!"
"They are stuck," said Winn. "They've been stuck for some time.
That is why I am working for Toobad. And I'm very sorry I did not
warn you about the clothes in time."
And then he told his mother's aunt's second cousin what a fix his
folks were in and how if you did not pay for the clothes every week
they squeezed you until you did.
"Sakes alive!" groaned his mother's aunt's second cousin, "isn't it
dreadful the trouble some people have? Here I am all dressed up
fine but I can't enjoy it a bit after what you've told me."
Then he escorted Winn to the door and said he never wanted to see
his face again. "I'm sorry to have to say it," he continued, "but until
you came a little while ago my life was full of sunshine and now it is
nothing but a mud puddle. But I forgive you. Good-by!"
Well, you may be sure Winn felt terribly gloomy as he went back to
Toobad's shop. When he hired out as the tailor's errand boy in order
to help his family, he had not thought how he would be bringing
distress into other families by delivering Toobad's enchanted clothes.
But he could see now, after the scene with his mother's aunt's
second cousin, how selfish and wicked it was for him to help Toobad
get other people into trouble in order to make things easier for his
own folks. So he determined that he would give up his job right
away.
"I've decided not to be your errand boy any longer," he said to the
enchanter, as he handed him the money he had received from his
mother's aunt's second cousin. "I find you are too wicked to work
for."
"Humph!" said the tailor, "and why am I any wickeder now than I was
this morning? You were glad to work for me then."
"I know," said Winn, "but I have just seen my mother's aunt's second
cousin turn from a carefree, happy person into a miserable wretch,
and all because I delivered him one of your enchanted suits of
clothes. And I cannot help you in your crimes any longer even if my
family do suffer. Good afternoon!"
"Good afternoon nothing!" shouted Toobad. "Come back here at
once. Yesterday when I did not want an errand boy you talked me
into having one, and now that I've gotten used to having one you
want me to do without one. Well, I shan't do it. You'll work for me
whether you want to or not."
And with that he stretched out his hand toward Winn and then drew it
back and when he drew it back something mysterious drew Winn
back also, and though he tried to get to the door he could not move.
"Now," said Toobad, "will you work for me or not?"
"No," said Winn, firmly, "I will never work for you if I can help it."
"Very well, then," said the enchanter, "you shall work for me because
you cannot help it."
And with that he repeated the alphabet backward like lightning,
wiggling his fingers at the same time, and in a flash Winn was
transformed into a tailor's dummy, after which Toobad placed him on
the sidewalk outside his shop with one of the enchanted suits on him
and with a sign on his breast which read:
TAKE ME HOME FOR $3.75
so people could see what fine, cheap clothes were sold inside.
And maybe Winn did not feel bad as he stood there day after day not
even able to roll his eyes or move or speak. And on Saturday night
he felt particularly bad because his father, and his grandfather, and
his uncle, and his big brother came by the shop arm in arm, all
whistling merrily because they did not have to pay Toobad any
money that week and were going to a movie instead.
"My, my!" they exclaimed, when they saw Winn by the door, "doesn't
that image look exactly like our Winn, but of course it cannot be
because it's made of wax." And then the next moment they went on
their way as happy as larks.
"Oh, dear!" said Winn to himself, miserably, "whatever am I going to
do? How am I ever going to escape from this terrible tailor? If only I
could think of some way."
And later when Toobad had brought him indoors and shut the shop,
and gone off to bed and left him standing in a dark corner, he
thought and thought with all his might, for he felt if he did not find
some way to break the enchantment he might as well die.
And then as he was still puzzling over the problem he heard a
stealthy step, and into the room came Toobad in his nightgown,
holding a lighted candle in his hand, and Winn saw that he was
walking in his sleep. And not only was he walking in his sleep but he
was talking in his sleep also, and this is what he was saying:

Of all the gents who wear my clothes

Not one has ever guessed, sir,
That he could break the magic spell
By pulling down his vest, sir.
Oh, yes, indeed, there is no need
Why he should be distressed, sir,
If he but knows enchanted clothes
Are governed by the vest, sir.

And when Winn heard what he was saying he knew right away that if
he could only escape he could easily get his father, and grandfather,
and uncle, and big brother out of the power of Toobad the tailor, for
he only had to tell them to pull down their vests and they would be
rid forever of the hateful clothing they were wearing. But alas, it was
one thing to want to get home, and another to get there, for while he
was transformed into a tailor's dummy he was utterly helpless and
could only stand and watch Toobad as he wandered about the shop
with his eyes shut and the lighted candle in his hand.
And then all of a sudden something happened that transformed him
from a tailor's dummy into a very real boy, for Toobad, not seeing
where he was going, bumped right into him and the flame of the
candle came right against Winn's nose—only for a moment—but it
was long enough to scorch it and to make Winn yell—ouch! at the
top of his lungs, and to joggle all the enchantment out of him. And if
you did not believe an enchanted person can be cured by scorching
his nose, just get yourself enchanted and scorch your nose and see
if it does not work.
Anyway, it cured Winn, and not only that but it woke Toobad up. And
when the tailor found himself in his shop with his nightgown on, and
found Winn changed from a dummy into a regular boy again, he was
furious.
"Zounds!" he shrieked, dancing up and down, "how the—what the—
where did I come from and how did you get all right again?"
And when Winn told him he was more furious than ever. "Well," he
said, "I'll soon fix you anyway." And thereupon he began to say the
alphabet backward the same as he had done before, but by the time
he had said three letters and before the enchantment had had time
to work, Winn rushed at him and knocked the candle to the floor. And
then while the shop was in darkness he unhooked the door and ran
home as fast as he could. When he got there it was past midnight
and of course every one was asleep, but by and by his mother heard
him knocking and let him in.
And you may be sure it did not take his father, or his grandfather, or
his uncle, or his big brother long to hop out of bed where they had
been sleeping with their clothes on because they could not get them
off. And maybe they were not surprised when they learned that Winn
had really been the tailor's dummy they had seen outside the shop.
And maybe they were not delighted when they found that Winn knew
of a way for them to get rid of the enchanted clothes. And maybe
they did not pull down their vests in a hurry as soon as Winn had
finished telling them about it.
"My gracious," said Winn's grandfather, as he peeled the last of the
hated garments from him, "I feel twenty years younger. And I can
hardly wait until morning to get my hands on that villainous tailor."
"Nor I," said Winn's father.
"Me, too," said Winn's uncle.
"I daren't tell you what I'll do to him," said Winn's big brother.
And the first thing after breakfast they all went around to Toobad's
shop dressed in their old clothes, and each one of them kept his
word so well that Toobad was laid up in the hospital for a week. And
every time he got well and came out again a fresh batch of victims
was waiting to send him back again, for Winn had gone all about the
city telling everybody who had bought the enchanted clothes, how to
pull down their vests and get rid of them. And, of course, one of the
first persons he told after his immediate family was his mother's
aunt's second cousin. But as his mother's aunt's second cousin had
forgotten to put on his vest when he donned his enchanted suit, he
could not pull his vest down. And so the only thing to do was to give
him chloroform and skin the clothes off him a little strip at a time.
After which they sent him to the hospital also, where he lay in bed
right alongside of Toobad the tailor.
And perhaps that is the reason Toobad is still in the hospital, for after
Winn's mother's aunt's second cousin got well, he refused to go
home, but sat down on the hospital steps to wait for Toobad. And
neither Winn's father, nor his grandfather, nor his uncle, nor his big
brother, were able to coax him away.
But as for Winn, he did not try to coax him, indeed he soon forgot all
about his mother's aunt's second cousin, for all the persons in Vex
who had been wearing Toobad's enchanted clothes, began sending
Winn presents to show their gratitude, and when you have sixteen
gold watches, and a couple of ponies, and skates, and air guns, and
pretty much every sort of a thing that a boy likes, you cannot think of
much else.
The best you can do is just to enjoy yourself, and if you think Winn is
not doing that, take a trip to Vex some day and you will soon find out.
 THE SNOOPING-BUG
Once there was a Snooping Bug that lived in a glass jar on a shelf in
the cottage of a Fairy Godmother. Now fairy godmothers are always
nice, but this Fairy Godmother was very nice, and the reason she
kept the Snooping Bug a prisoner in a jar on her shelf was because
she was afraid he would go about and get folks into trouble. And
another thing that showed she was unusually nice was that every
week-end she always invited a little prince or princess to be her
guest. And this story opens just as Prince Pranc, the only son of the
king of a nearby city, had arrived to spend several days with his Fairy
Godmother.
"Now, Pranc," said the Fairy Godmother, "I want you to have the
happiest kind of a time, and you'll have it without doubt if you don't
get into mischief."
"Oh, that's all right," replied the Prince, as he watched the Fairy
Godmother unpack his trunk, "if I get into mischief you just send me
home again."
"Yes," said the Fairy Godmother, "but suppose you are not here to
send home again; suppose you have disappeared. Don't forget this
is an enchanted house and that strange things can happen in an
enchanted house."
"Phew!" said Pranc, "I almost wish I hadn't come."
"Not at all," replied the Fairy Godmother, "there is nothing to be
alarmed about. You could sit on a keg of gunpowder and be perfectly
safe if you didn't explode the powder. But in case you should get into
trouble, put this ring on your finger and turn it around and around
when danger threatens."
"Oh, thank you," said the Prince, slipping on the ring. "I don't feel so
worried now."
Then the Fairy Godmother took him all over the cottage and showed
him the wonderful belongings she had, and last of all she took him
into her study and there Pranc saw the Snooping Bug in his jar on
the shelf.
"What's that?" he asked.
And the Fairy Godmother told him it was a Snooping Bug. "And this
one," she continued, pointing to another jar on the shelf, "has a
Sulking Bug in it; and this one—next to it, is a Crying Bug. If they got
out of the jars they'd bite you, and you'd start in to snoop, or sulk, or
cry."
"Whoever heard of such a thing," said the Prince. "It can't be."
"It can't, eh," said the Fairy Godmother. "Just put your finger on the
top of this bottle when I take the cork out."
And with that she took the magic stopper out of the Crying Bug bottle
and Pranc stuck his finger in. And then—ping—the next moment
something bit it, and the next moment he burst out crying, boo-hoo—
boo-hoo, as loud as he could. And as he was a boy who hardly ever
cried, he felt awfully ashamed of himself.
"Oh, dear," he sobbed, "I hate to cry this way, but—but—"
"Don't worry," said the Fairy Godmother, as she corked the bottle
again, "he only gave you a little bite. You'll be over it in a minute."
And presently the tears stopped rolling down Pranc's cheeks and he
was all right once more.
"My goodness," he said, as he wiped his eyes, "I wouldn't like that to
happen again."
"Then," said the Fairy Godmother, "see that you keep hands off
these bottles. As long as the bugs stay in the bottles everything will
be all right, but if they once get out they'll bite every girl and boy they
find. That is why I keep them prisoners. I don't care for snooping,
sulking or crying children, nor does any one else."
Then she told Pranc that she would have to leave him for awhile. "I
have been invited to the christening of a princess," she said.
So she put on her gossamer cloak and her diamond studded bonnet,
kissed her hand to Pranc and went off to the christening. But so
interested was Pranc in the bugs on the shelf he hardly noticed her
going, for the Sulking Bug looked so mad it almost startled him, and
the Crying Bug had cried so much his bottle was half full of tears and
he looked almost as mad as the Sulking Bug. But when it came to
the Snooping Bug, it was a very different affair altogether, for the
Snooping Bug, although he had a sly sort of expression in his big,
pop eyes, was real jolly looking as he slowly scratched his shoulder
blade with his hind leg. And when he saw the Prince looking at him,
he winked one eye and then turned a couple of somersaults, which
made the Prince laugh like anything.
"Gee whiz," he exclaimed, "I like this bug."
And in order to get a better look at the creature he reached the jar
down from the shelf and carried it over to the window, or at least he
started to, but before he got there he stumbled—bing—the jar
slipped from his hands, fell to the floor with a crash and broke into a
thousand pieces, leaving the Snooping Bug kicking in the midst of
the fragments.
 The jar broke into a thousand pieces

"Oh," cried the Prince, "I must get something to put him in or he'll get
away."
"Nonsense," remarked the Snooping Bug. "I'm not going away. You
couldn't drive me away. I'm going to stay with you. But do get me out
of this mess, please."
So Pranc, not suspecting anything, stooped to pick the Snooping
Bug up and then as he did so—zip, the Bug bit his finger and in
about eight seconds he changed from a first class little boy who
always minded his own business and did not pry into things, into a