LECTURE FOUR

FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTION

4.1 Introduction

Fertility is one of the most important components of demographic change; the others are being mortality and
migration. In this lesson we examine methods of fertility analysis and measures of reproduction.
Objectives

By the end of this lesson you should be able to:

1. Define various term used in reproduction

2. Examine methods of fertility analysis
3. Determine Measures of reproduction

4.2 General Definitions

We have to define and distinguish between a number of terms which have in the past been used rather carelessly,
leading to confusion in the minds of students and the general public.

Fertility
This is the frequency of childbearing among the population; fertility rate, therefore, refers to the relative frequency
with which births actually occur within a given population.
Fecundity
This refers to the capacity to bear children. Fecundability is, therefore, a measure of the probability that a woman
will conceive within a menstrual cycle in the absence of contraceptives. Reproduction
This refers to the ability of the population to grow and to replace itself. Its study, therefore, considers the processes
of birth and death together, and examines the extent to which fertility balances the force of mortality and permits
population growth as well.

4.3 Basic Fertility Measures

There are a number of conventional rates for measuring childbearing within a population, and these are usually
expressed as a ratio or rate of the number of births that occur in the population during a specified period, usually
a year, to the size of the population. A number of these indices or measures will now be discussed; the advantages
and disadvantages of each rate and the uses will be stressed during the discussion.

Crude Birth rate (CBR)

One convenient measure of the fertility experience of all ages of the population is the crude birth rate. This is
defined as the number of live births per 1,000 population. Crude birth rate is defined symbolically as:
B
CBR = X 1,000 4.1
P
Where B is the number of live births that occur during a calendar year and P is the mid-year population.
The rate measures the contribution of current fertility to overall population growth, but it is not a very good index
for comparing levels of fertility. For example, it is affected by the composition of the population with regard with
regard to age, sex and marital status. Other things being equal, populations with an unusual concentration of
women in the reproductive ages will have higher crude birth rates than other populations that may have the same
rate of childbearing per woman. Its main advantages are its simplicity in calculation and the ease with which it
can be explained to laymen.
Table 4.1 and 4.2 gives some examples of crude birth rates for selected African countries, as well as for other
parts of the world.

General Fertility Rate

General fertility rate is the yearly number of live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age (usually considered
to be 15 – 44 or 15 – 49). The general fertility rate (GFR) is therefore estimated as follows:
B
GFR = x 1,000 4.2
35 W15
Where B is the total live births that occur during a period of one year and 35W15 is the total mid-year population
of females of childbearing age in the 15 – 49 age group.

Example: Suppose there were 178,390 births recorded during the last twelve months prior to the census or survey
and the total number of women in the 15 – 49 age group was 1,018,447. What is the estimate of the general
fertility rate in this population?
Births during the past twelve months = 178,390
Women in 15 – 49 age group 35W15 = 1,018,447
B
GFR = x1,000
35 W15
178,390 x 1,000
=
1,018,447

Table 4.1 Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries in Africa

Average annual or annual number of births per 1,000 population
50 and over 45 and over but 40 and over but Less than 40
Countries Year less than 50 less than 45
Guinea 1955 62.0
Mali 1960-61 61.0
Nigeria 1952-53 55.0
Togo 1961 55.0
Ivory Coast 1957-58 55.0
Dahomey 1961 54.0
Upper Volta 1960-61 53.0
Niger 1959-60 52.0
Rwanda 1957 52.0
Zambia 1963 51.4
Sudan 1956 50.0
Cameroon 1964-65 49.9
Ghana 1960 49.5
Chad 1963-64 49.0
Angola 1940-45 49.0
 Central Africa Rep. 1959-60 48.0
Kenya 1962 48.0
Portuguese Guinea 1940-45 47.0
Rep. of Congo 1960-61 47.0
Mozambique 1945-50 47.0
Morocco 1962 46.1
Burundi 1965 46.0
Madagascar 1966 46.0
Tanzania 1957 46.0
Algeria 1944-49 45.0
United Arab Rep. 1950-55 45.0
Mauritania 1964-65 45.0
Liberia 1962 44.0
Senegal 1960-61 43.0
Dem. Rep. of Congo 1955-58 43.0
Uganda 1959 42.0
Tunisia 1965 41.0
Lesotho 1956 40.0
Gambia 1963 38.7
Libya 1944-49 38.5
Seychelles 1965 37.4
Gabon 1960-61 35.0
Mauritius 1965 35.3
Total population 106,634,000 124,039,000 34,944,000 3,377,000

= 175.2 per 1,000

The essential difference between this rate and the crude birth rates is that the denominator of the crude birth rate
refers to the total population, whereas that of the general fertility rate refers only to potential mothers within the
female population. A refinement can be introduced in the measurement of general fertility rate by restricting the
denominator to married women only.

The GFR is easy to compute and it requires no additional information about births. The measure, however, has
two limitations:
1. As a measure of fertility it is inadequate because the denominator which measures women at risk has been
approximated only roughly; that is, it does not take into account the distribution of women within the
reproductive age group (15 – 49) and the incidence of birth varies considerably within this group
2. All unmarried women are included in the denominator.

The general fertility rate indicates, in part, the extent to which the level of births in a country is attributable to the
age composition of its population. Its main use is in comparisons of populations with quite dissimilar age
compositions. It is also useful in studies and comparisons of small human groups or small geographic units.

Age-Specific Fertility Rates

The frequency of childbearing varies considerably from one age group to another within the reproductive age
group. This variation can be measured by computing the age-specific fertility rates. The age-specific fertility rate
is the yearly number of live births per 1,000 women in each of the seven age groups (15 – 19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-
34, 34-39, 40-44 and 45-49). It is a valuable measure of the current childbearing performance of women. It is
not directly influenced by the age or sex composition of the whole population. A set of given age-specific fertility
rates forms the starting point from which most other important fertility measures can be derived, such as the total
fertility rate and the gross reproduction rates.
A schedule of such rates reveals more information about the childbearing activity of the population at a given
moment than any of the other fertility indices. This set of given age-specific fertility rates also forms the basis
for studying patterns of fertility schedule.

The age specific fertility rate can be expressed symbolically as follows:

n Bx
n fx = x 1,000 4.3
n Wx

Where nfx is the age-specific fertility rate of women aged x to x + n years, nWxis the number of women aged x to
x + n years at mid-year,nBx is the number of births to women aged x to x + n years during the calendar year. An
example to show the calculation of age-specific fertility rates is represented in table 4.3, and table 4.4 gives some
examples of recorded age-specific fertility rates in selected African countries.

Table 4.3 Calculation of Age-Specific Birth Rates, the Total Fertility Rate and the Gross Reproduction
Rates (Uganda, 1969)

Age group No. of women Total no. of Age-specific Relative age-specific

births in the past fertility rates per fertility rates
12 months 1,000
15-19 410,352 56,403 137.5 12.7
20-24 378,163 97,166 256.9 23.7
25-29 377,011 93,415 247.8 22.9
30-34 296,799 57,694 194.4 17.9
35-39 235,697 34,478 146.3 13.6
40-44 190,328 13,078 68.7 6.4
45-49 148,534 4,546 30.6 2.8
Total 2,036,884 356,780 1,082.2 100.0

Total fertility rate (TFR) = Total of age-specific fertility rates per 1,000 x 5 = 1,082.2 x 5 = 5,411.0

TFR x 100 5411 .0 x 100

Gross Production rate (GRR) = = = 2,665 .5
203 203

Total Fertility Rate

Total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would have from age 15 to age 49 if she were to bear
children at the prevailing age-specific rates (or the average number of children a woman will have if she
experiences a given set of age-specific fertility rates throughout her lifetime). It is usually derived from actual or
assumed age-specific fertility rates.

The rate is obtained by summing over all the age-specific fertility rates for each year of the childbearing span. It
is a useful summary measure of age-specific fertility rates. It is also a good index to measure fertility changes,
as it is independent of the age and sex distribution.

For analyzing fertility trends, the total fertility rate is more useful than the general fertility rate. An important
conceptual advantage of the total fertility rate is that it states the number of births 1,000 women would have if
they experienced a given set of age-specific birth rates throughout the reproductive age span. The rate of 5.4 for
any year, say, 1960, for example, means that if a hypothetical group of 1,000 women were to have the same birth
rates at each single year of age that were observed in the entire childbearing population in 1960, they would have
a total of 5,400 children by the time they had reached the end of the reproductive period, assuming that all survive
to that age.
This rate is useful because it can be compared with the projected childbearing of actual groups of women as they
proceed through the reproductive period of life.
The total fertility rate (TFR) can be represented symbolically as follows:
49 49
 B 
TFR = n  n f x = n   n x  4.4
x =15 x =15 n W x 

where the data are grouped into age intervals of n years. If n = 1, the data are in single years, and summation
simply becomes
49 49
B 
TFR =  f x =  x  4.5
X =15 15  W x 

TFR is useful, but it also has some limitations. It is a somewhat imperfect measure of a real situation because it
covers the fertility behavior of women of all childbearing ages in a particular year. For certain reasons parents
might decide to postpone some births but eventually have the same number of children they would have had
otherwise, and this process might show up as a decline of the TFR. See table 4.3 for a worked example.

Gross Reproductive Rate

Gross reproduction rate is the average number of daughters a woman would have or bear if she experiences a
given set of age-specific fertility rates throughout the reproductive ages with no

Table 4.4 Recorded Age-Specific Fertility Rates Based on Births in the 12 Months Preceding the Census in
Selected African Countries

Age group Botswana 1971 Kenya 1969 Uganda 1969 Swaziland 1966
15 – 19 0.0770 0.1112 0.1375 0.0904
20 – 24 0.2483 0.2844 0.2569 0.2166
25 – 29 0.2480 0.2897 0.2478 0.2206
30 – 34 0.2181 0.2530 0.1944 0.1995
35 – 39 0.1779 0.2004 0.1463 0.1523
40 – 44 0.1247 0.1212 0.0687 0.0953
45 – 49 0.0645 0.0604 0.0306 0.0591
Total x 5 5.7925 6.6015 5.4110 5.1690

allowance for mortality over this period. This index equals total fertility times the proportion of births that are
daughters. It is a good index for measuring changes in future fertility potential. It is often interpreted as showing
the extent to which the generation of daughters would rplace the preceding generation of females if fertility
remains constant. The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is restricted to female births only; otherwise this rate is
essentially the same as total fertility rate, yielding values that are about half as large. Given the sex ratio at birth
the exact value can be worked out. (GRR) is, therefore, given as:

TFR
GRR = 4.6
(1 + sex ratio at birth)
See table 4.3 for a worked-out example.

Net Reproduction Rate

Net reproduction rate R0 is the average number of daughters that a woman will bear if she experiences a given set
of age-specific fertility rates throughout the reproductive ages with allowance made for mortality of women over
their reproductive years. Its primary significance is that a net reproduction rate having the value R0 shows that if
fertility and mortality remain as they are, the population will eventually grow by (R 0 – 1) x 100 per cent per
generation (or decline by 100 (R0 – 1) per cent generation if R0< 1).

For example, a net reproduction rate of R0 means that 1,000 girl babies will produce in the course of their lives
1,000R0 female babies if fertility and mortality continue at the levels of a given year. A net reproduction rate of
0.9 suggests that people’s reproductive behavior is such that they have 10 per cent fewer children in the course of
their lives than they need to maintain the number of births in the long run.

However, since the paternal and maternal reproduction rates differ unless they happen to be unity, there cannot
be a single figure showing how far reproductivity falls short of par. The net reproduction rate, therefore, measures
the extent to which women are reproducing themselves and, when calculated on a cohort basis, can be used as an
approximation to intergenerational growth.

Disadvantages
• This measure is computed from mortality and fertility rates observed in a single calendar year, and it is
often interpreted as showing the extent to which a generation of daughters would replace the preceding
generation of females if mortality and fertility remained constant at stated levels.
• It assumes the continuation of the reproductive situation in a single year, an assumption which does not
hold in practice in view of changing social and economic conditions and proportions marrying.
• The childbearing history or experience of the generation is not only ignored, but perhaps a more serious
limitation to the use of the net reproduction rate is that it is based only on female reproduction, not taking
into account the ratio and differences in the ages of parents. Table 4.5 gives the gross and net reproduction
rates and the mean age of fertility for selected countries.

4.4 Other Measures of fertility and Reproduction

The census usually provides two different sources of information on fertility in most developing countries where
there are no vital registration systems. These are data on current fertility and lifetime fertility obtained from the
questions on the numbers of children over born alive, as well as data on the distribution of the population by sex.
This section, therefore, discusses the measurement of fertility and reproduction from mainly census or survey
data.

Child-Woman Ratio (CWR)

The child-woman ratio (fertility ratio) is the number of children per 1,000 women of childbearing age. Various
ages of children have been used, but usually the numerator refers to women aged 15 – 49, 20 – 54 or 15 – 54.
CWR is defined symbolically as follows:
P P P
CWR = 5 0 ; 5 5 ; 10 0 4.7
35 W15 35 W20 40 W15

Where 5P0 represents children under 5 years and 35W15 is women aged 15 – 49 years.

It is important to note the child-woman ratio does not make any allowance for under-enumeration and age mis-
statement of children and women in the estimation of the ratio; it also makes no allowance for mortality of women
and children. These two factors, under-enumeration or over-enumeration and mortality, do affect the ratio
considerably and in using the index to compare fertility among populations, it is necessary to assume that these
two factors are constants in the analysis. Migration could also be a serious factor in some comparisons.
The ratio has some similarity with the general fertility rate. The denominators are comparable, particularly when
using children aged 0 – 4 to women aged 15 – 49. It is a useful index where vital registration data are lacking, it
reflects fertility performance during the five years preceding the census.

A further great advantage is that it does not require a special question in the census. It is a useful means of
obtaining fertility statistics for small areas. A disadvantage is that the broad age range used for women does not
take account of the age distribution within this range and fertility is closely related to ages of women. It may be
desirable to standardize CWR for the effects of age composition within the childbearing ages.

Example: In the 1969 census (Uganda) children under 5 years comprise 904,394 males and 925,080 females.
The distribution of women in the reproductive age group is given as follows:

Age group Number

15 – 19 410,352
20 – 24 378,163
25 – 29 377,011
30 – 34 296,799
35 – 39 253,697
40 – 44 190,328
45 – 49 148,534
_____________________________
Total 2,036,884___

P0 1,829,474
CWR = 5
= = 0.898
35 W15 2,036,884
This ratio can sometimes be written as 898 children per 1,000 women aged 15 – 49.
Mean Number of Children Ever Born Per Woman
This is the mean number of children ever born to a group of women of a specified age. This measure requires
only census or survey data on the number of children ever born age of women and the distribution of women. An
example is given in table 4.5, and table 4.6 gives comparative data for selected countries. See the index by age
in figure 4.1.

Data on lifetime fertility by the ages of women from most developing countries show that it tends to rise steadily
with age, reaching a maximum in the 45 – 49 age group; there is then a slight, but generally consistent, fall in the
figures for the women over the age of 50 years. The fall may be due to three possible causes:
a) The general level of fertility may have been lower when the women concerned were of reproductive age
b) There may have been a selective survival of women had borne small numbers of children
c) There may have been a tendency on the part of the older women to omit some of their offspring when
stating the numbers of children they had borne.

Table 4.6 Mean Live Births Per Woman by Age Group for Selected Countries
Age group Botswana 1971 Kenya 1969 Swaziland 1966
15 – 19 0.156 0.355 0.317
20 – 24 1.326 1.882 1.659
25 – 29 2.765 3.653 3.013
30 – 34 4.115 5.112 4.136
35 – 39 4.934 6.003 4.850
40 – 44 5.476 6.441 5.469
45 – 49 5.552 6.687 5.745
50 – 54 5.293 6.400  5.733
55 – 59 5.165   5.543
60+ 5.118   4.975
5.778

Table 4.7 Mean Number of Live Births per Woman by specified Ages and Birth Cohort for the Gezira
Population (Sudan)

Birth date of Age of woman

Cohort 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
1938 – 42 1.84
1933 – 37 1.57 3.54
1928 – 32 1.35 3.05 4.87
1923 – 27 1.27 2.64 3.98 5.34
1918 – 22 1.31 2.68 4.12 5.44 6.42
1913 – 17 1.28 2.60 4.05 5.33 6.47 7.16
1908 – 12 1.15 2.43 3.74 4.77 5.68 6.19 6.45
1907 or earlier 0.65 1.83 3.07 4.16 5.01 5.55 5.88

4.5 Cohort Fertility Rate

Cohort fertility rate represents the cumulated fertility (completed family size) of specific women to each
successive age and involves only the variable of age. This completed family size or the average size of completed
fertility (the number of live born children per woman by the end of the reproductive period of life) exhibits much
more stability than do age-specific rates from year to year.
The estimation of completed family size has therefore become important in fertility analysis. Statistically, this
involves following a group of persons born in a particular year (generation or birth cohort) or married in a
particular year (marriage cohort) throughout their lifetime and recording the number of children they produce. In
Africa, data on cohort fertility have been obtained from the maternity histories of women. To illustrate the point,
consider birth cohorts as shown in table 4.7.

The number of children ever born per woman was measured for different birth cohorts at ages 20, 25, …50 by
analyzing their maternity histories. At the time of the survey, two cohorts (those born before 1907 and those born
1908 – 12) have completed family sizes were 5.88 and 6.45 respectively.

No new principles are involved if we consider fertility by marriage cohorts rather than by birth cohorts. The
women who were married, say, in 1970, who contribute to fertility rate for marriage duration 0 – in 1970, will
contribute to the fertility rate for marriage duration 1 – in 1971, 2 – in 1972, and so on. The cumulation of these
rates for all durations will produce the completed family size of women married within the same period. The
trouble with cohorts is that we do not know their completed size until their childbearing is over.

4.6 Age Patterns of fertility

The shape, structure and age pattern of fertility (the distribution of fertility in the childbearing ages) are useful in
classifying the different fertility patterns. The shape and structure of the curves are determined by social and
biological factors operating within a particular population. The factors also affect the age at which childbearing
starts and ends in different populations. Statistically, the curves differ with respect to the mean age at childbearing
(m) , the median age (md), the age at which the peak occurs (mode m0) and the spread of the curve (variance).

Given this information, it is possible to estimate the entire curve and describe its age-specific fertility pattern.
The calculation of the mean age at childbearing (m) , the mode (m0), the median age (md) and the spread of the
curve are given here and data from table 4.8 are used to illustrate the methods.

()
Calculation of the Mean age ( m Median (md) and Mode (m0)
Two methods are described.
Method 1 uses the actual age-specific fertility rates to obtain the mean age of the fertility schedule:

m=
 f i xi = 30.637 = 28.3 years 4.8
 f i 1.0822
Where fi is the frequency for group i and xi is the mid-point of the class interval.
Method 2 uses the relative age-specific fertilities of the distribution to obtain the mean age of the fertility schedule:

m=
 f 'i xi = 2832 .0 = 28.3 years 4.9
 f 'i 100

Where f’i is the relative frequency distribution for group i.

Median (md)
The median md of a frequency distribution is given as:
 (b − a ) 1
md = a + ( 2 n − Fa ) 4.10
f

Where a is the beginning of the class interval, b is the end of the class interval, f is the frequency for the interval
a to b, n is the sum of the frequencies and Fais the cumulative frequency corresponding to a.
Table 4.8 Data from the Calculation of the Mean age at Childbearing ( m ) the Mode (m0), the Median Age (md) and the Variance of the Curve

Age group Total no. of Total no. of births Average no. of births Mean age with Col. 4 x Relative percentage
women during past 12 months during past 12 interval x Col 5 age distribution
months f(x)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
15 – 19 410,352 56,403 0.1375 17 2.3375 12.7
20 – 24 378,163 97,166 0.2569 22 5.6518 23.7
25 – 29 377,011 93,415 0.2478 27 6.6906 22.9
30 – 34 296,799 57,694 0.1944 32 6.2208 17.9
35 – 39 235,697 34,478 0.1463 37 5.4131 13.6
40 – 44 190,328 13,078 0.0687 42 2.8854 6.4
45 - 49 148,543 4,546 0.0306 47 1.4382 2.8
Total 2,036,893 356,780 1.0822 - 30,6374 100.00`

Using data from table 4.8, we have

5(50 − 36.4)
md = 24.5 +
22.9
68.0
= 24.5 +
22.9

= 27.5 years
Mode (m0)
The mode m0 of a frequency distribution is given as:
( f − f a )(b − a )
m0 = a + 4.11
( f − fa ) + ( f − fb )
Wherea is the beginning of the modal class, f is the frequency of the modal class,fa is the frequency just before
the modal class andfb is the frequency just after the modal class.
Using data from Table 4.8, the modal class is 20 – 24:
(23.7 − 12.7)(5)
m0 = 19.5 +
(23.7 − 12.7) + (23.7 − 22.9)
11.0 x 5
m0 + 19.5 +
(11.0) + (0.8)
55
= 19.5 +
11.8
= 19.5 + 4.7
= 24.2 years

Calculation of the Variance and Standard Deviation

1  ( f i xi ) 2 
 f i xi − n 
2
(1) Variance =
100  
1
= (86,258 .00 − 80,202 .24)
100
1
= (6,055 .76)
100
Variance = 60.56
(2) Standard deviation = √60.6
= 7.8

Note that it is much easier to use the relative percentage distributions rather than the actual age-specific fertility
rates for these calculations. For data from survey, the class intervals for the age groups are 14.5 to 19.5, 19.5 to
24.5,…44.5 to 49.5 because the women were half a year younger at the time of the birth of their children. The
mid-points therefore become 17, 22,…47. For data from vital registration, the mid-points of age groups should
be 17.5, 22.5,…47.5, because the registration should be carried out at the time of birth of a child.

The United Nations classifies age-specific fertility distributions into three broad groups:
(1) Early peak type (maximum fertility in the age group 20 – 24).
(2) Late peak type (maximum fertility in the age group 25 – 29)
(3) Broad peak type (age-specific fertility rates in the age group 20 – 24 and 25 – 29 differ only slightly).

These are then used to describe the shapes of the differential fertility curves. Examples of the three United Nations
models of early, broad and late peak are shown in table 4.9. In table 4.10 percentage age-specific fertilities for
selected African countries are given

Differences between age-specific fertility patterns in populations can be explained in terms of age at first
marriage, the proportion of women of each age who are cohabiting either within or outside marriage; sterility and
subnormal fecundity by age, the age distribution of the population, birth order distributions and the use or non-
use of birth control measures.

4.7 Measurement of fertility Change

In many branches of human activity we are concerned with the measurement of change in variable or group of
variables. This change may be over time, thus facilitating temporal comparisons, or it may be in space, thus
facilitating spatial comparisons, that is comparisons between geographical areas or countries about one point in
time.

Changes in vital rates can be measured by a series of observations at successive dates. Various indices can be
employed to describe the trend. The indices used ar dictated by the available data. In most cases, the indices
employed summarize the frequency of vital events one single figure. While such indices have their limitations,
they provide the best alternative for trend analysis in the absence of data from complete vital registration.

The methodology for measuring fertility change is very much the same for high fertility and low fertility
populations. The essential difference lies in the availability of basic data which is a deciding factor on the choice
of an appropriate method for measuring fertility change. Basically, all studies on fertility change begin with a
cross-sectional analysis to determine how
Table 4.9 Relative Percentage Distributions of the United Nations Models of Early Peak, Broad Peak and
Late Peak

Age group Early peak Broad peak Late peak

15 – 19 16.2 8.9 5.6
20 – 24 24.7 23.7 19.4
25 – 29 21.9 24.4 24.6
30 – 34 17.4 19.9 23.3
35 – 39 11.8 14.7 17.2
40 – 44 5.8 6.5 8.4
45 - 49 2.2 1.9 1.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
m 28.0 29.2 30.0
m0 23.8 25.9 28.8
md 26.6 28.1 29.6
Variance 59.7 53.7 50.5

much year-to-year change there has been in fertility levels. Once this has been done, a longitudinal analysis may
be undertaken to determine how much of this fluctuation may be due to changing childbearing patterns of
individual cohorts.

Cross-Sectional Analysis of Fertility Change

The cross-sectional measurement of fertility change involves the comparison of the basic fertility measures for
two or more intervals of time. Methodologically, two steps are necessary to measure the change. These are the
method of absolute change and the method of relative change. In applying the absolute change method, we
subtract the values for the earlier data from the values for the later data. In the relative change method we express
the change in relation to the value at the base or earlier date.

This may be done in two ways. First, there is the method of percentage change where we divide the absolute
differences obtained in absolute change method by the value at the earlier date and multiply by 100. This
expresses the difference as a percentage change. Secondly, there is the method of ratio to base where we divide
the value of
Table 4.10 Percentage Age-Specific Fertilities for Selected African Countries

Age group Zambia Tanzania Malawi Botswana Kenya Swaziland Uganda Tunisia 14 Franco-phone
1970 1967 1970 1961 1969 1966 1969 1966 African counties
1955-61
15 – 19 7.2 11.6 9.1 6.6 8.4 8.7 12.7 2.6 17.1
20 – 24 22.4 22.9 20.2 21.4 21.5 21.0 23.7 19.6 24.0
25 – 29 22.5 21.7 20.9 21.4 21.9 21.4 22.9 24.3 21.6
30 – 34 19.8 17.9 19.4 18.8 19.2 19.3 17.9 23.0 17.1
35 – 39 14.6 13.8 15.4 15.4 15.2 14.7 13.6 17.0 12.3
40 – 44 8.6 7.9 8.3 10.8 9.2 9.2 6.4 9.6 5.5
45 – 49 4.9 4.2 6.7 5.6 4.6 5.7 2.8 3.9 2.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
percentage
Recorded 5.0 6.6 6.8 5.8 6.6 5.2 5.4 7.1 -
TFR
m* 29.9 29.0 30.4 30.5 29.8 30.0 28.3 31.3 28.0
each fertility rate at the later date by the value of the corresponding rate at the earlier date. This expresses the
rate at the second date as a ratio of the rate at the earlier date.

A value of 1.0 means no change and a value above 1.0 means fertility increase. A value of less than 1.0 means a
decline in fertility. We can convert ratios to percentage-change measures by subtracting 1.0 from the ratio and
multiplying it by 100. Four measures of fertility can be used in fertility change analysis by cross-sectional
method: age-specific fertility rates, general fertility rates, total fertility rates and age-standardized general fertility
rate. An example of the analysis of fertility change by the cross-sectional method is shown in table 4.11.

Cohort Analysis of fertility Change

There would be no cohort effect if all fertility changes were due entirely to annual fluctuations in fertility levels.
Each fertility change that occurs would then affect all cohorts equally. If some cohorts were changing their
fertility more rapidly than others, a cohort effect becomes noticeable.

This effect can be measured by comparing the magnitude of percentage change in age-specific rates of a particular
age group, say 20 – 29 age group with the percentage change in the general fertility rate. For example, compare
the percentage change in the 35 – 39 age group (21.0%) in table 4.11 with the percentage change in the general
fertility rate (2.1%) or with the percentage change in the total fertility rate (5.9%). A cohort effect is clearly
shown in table 4.11.

4.8 Fertility Differentials

Fertility varies not only with age and duration of marriage, but also with area of residence (i.e. rural or urban),
type of marriage (monogamous or polygamous), level of educational attainment, occupation, religion and many
other factors. The procedure involves classifying births and populations by age, year of birth, occupation, rural
or urban residence, religion, education, etc. in Africa, the data for such refined analysis are normally obtained
from sample surveys of censuses. Examples of this kind of analysis are given.
Table 4.11 Measurement of Fertility Change (Uganda, 1959 – 69)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Age group Age-specific Fertility rate Column 3  Relative Absolute change  absolute 
1959 1969 Column 2 percentage (col.3-col.2)  
 change 
change (col. 4 –   x 100
1.0) x 100  
1959 values 
 
15 – 19 0.1324 0.1375 1.039 +3.9 +0.0051 +3.9
20 – 24 0.2481 0.2569 1.036 +3.6 +0.0088 +3.6
25- 29 0.2214 0.2478 1.119 +11.9 +0.0264 +11.9
30 – 34 0.1879 0.1944 1.035 +3.5 +0.0065 +3.5
35 – 39 0.1209 0.1463 1.210 +21.0 +0.0254 +21.0
40 – 44 0.0550 0.0687 1.249 +24.9 +0.0137 +24.9
45 - 49 0.0391 0.0306 0.782 -21.8 -0.0085 -21.8
TFR 5.1 5.4 1.059 +5.9 +0.3 +5.9
General fertility 187 191 1.021 +2.1 +4.0 +2.1
rate
Crude birth rate 42 48 1.143 +14.3 +6.0 +14.3
Table 4.12 Urban-Rural Fertility Differentials (Kenya, 1973)

Age-specific fertility average number of

rates children ever born
per woman
Age group Urban Rural Urban Rural
15 -19 0.0781 0.1245 0.2531 0.3632
20 – 24 0.2637 0.3526 1.2642 1.6608
25- 29 0.2788 0.3351 2.5326 3.4792
30 – 34 0.2468 0.3078 3.7065 5.1594
35 – 39 0.1443 0.2965 4.4103 6.2461
40 – 44 0.0931 0.1864 5.0580 7.0081
45 - 49 0.0085 0.1123 4.8120 7.2199
TFR 5.57 8.58 - -

Fertility Differentials by Rural or Urban Areas of Residence

Urbanization is significantly correlated with fertility. Low levels of fertility are often found to be
associated with high levels of urbanization; that is, fertility becomes lower as the degree of
urbanization becomes higher. An example is shown in table 4.12.

Fertility Differentials by Level of education Attained

Fertility differentials can be studied in terms of economic and social characteristics at all levels of
aggregation. In general the influence of socio-economic classes on fertility can be measured by
one of a number of indices such as occupation, income and education; extended formal education
has been found to be one of the main reasons for the postponement of marriage among educated
women.

Whilst this factor may have very little, if any, effect on the marriage patterns of the uneducated
“urbanites”, the use of contraceptives may play an important role in the reduction of fertility. This
factor is likely to operate more effectively among the educated and the well-to-do sections of the
community than among the uneducated and the less sophisticated sections of the nation. Thus,
fertility differentials are most likely to exist between the various socio-economic classes and, as a
result, part of the observed differentials in fertility can be explained in terms of socio-economic
classes, for example education. An example is given in table 4.13.

Table 4.13 Fertility Differentials by Level of Education Attained (Uganda, 1969)

Africans Asians
Educational level Recorded total fertility rate Recorded total fertility rate
per woman per woman
None 5.3 3.5
Primary 1 to Primary 3 5.8 3.3
Primary 4 to Primary 7 5.8 3.1
Secondary and over 4.8 2.1
All 5.4 3.0

Fertility Differentials by Type of Marriage

In almost all societies, family building is mainly within marriage, and fertility is strongly related
to the duration and type of marriage, that is, whether monogamous or polygamous. The
dominating factors are the ages at first marriage and the proportions who enter unions. An example
of fertility differential by type of marriage is shown in table 4.14.

There are several possible reasons why women in polygamous unions have lower fertility. The
most obvious reason is that such women have lower exposure to the risk of pregnancy. Presumably
the coital frequency of any one wife of a polygamously married man is lower than that of a
monogamously married woman. Another possible explanation for the lower fertility is that men
traditionally take new wives when the previous wife or wives cannot produce children or cannot
produce a son.

Fertility Differentials by Religion and Place of Residence

Fertility can differ by religion and place of residence, as shown in table 4.15.

Table 4.14 Fertility Differentials by Type of Marriage (Kenya, 1973)

Age-specific fertility rates from
Age Group Monogamous marriages Polygamous marriages
15 – 19 0.2476 0.3475
20 – 24 0.4001 0.3412
25 – 29 0.3451 0.3343
30 – 34 0.3315 0.2500
35 – 39 0.3015 0.2898
40 – 44 0.1939 0.1564
45 – 49 0.1116 0.0926
TFR 9.8 9.1

Table 4.15 Fertility Differentials by Religion of Women and Place of Residence (Ghana)

Total fertility rate (per woman)

Religion Urban Rural
Christian 5.4 6.8
Moslem 5.2 6.1
Traditional 5.7 6.2
No religion 5.2 6.4

Fertility Differentials by Major Ethnic Groups and Place of Residence

Fertility can differ by major ethnic groups and place of residence. An example is shown in table
4.16.
Table 4.16 Fertility Differentials by Major Ethnic Groups and Place of Residence

Total fertility rate (per woman)

Ethnic group Urban Rural
Akan 5.5 7.1
Ga-Adangbe 5.5 6.1
Guan 5.4 6.9
Ewe 5.4 6.8
4.8SUMMARY

In this lesson we have looked at various terms used in reproduction,examined various methods
of fertility analysis and etermine Measures of reproduction

4.9 ACTIVITIES

Data on lifetime fertility by the ages of women from most developing countries show that it
tends to rise steadily with age, reaching a maximum in the 45 – 49 age group; there is then a
slight, but generally consistent, fall in the figures for the women over the age of 50 years.
Discuss the underlying reasons specifically for kenya
.
4.10 FURTHER READING

1. Klauke, A. (2000) Coping with Changing Demographics. Webpage at ERICDigests.org. An

analysis of the effect of changing demographic patterns on school enrollments and
education.
2. Kpedekpo G.M.K (1982) Essential of demographic analysis for Africa,London
Heinemann Educational books ltd.

3. Meredith, G., Schewe, C., and Haim, A. (2002), Managing by defining moments: Innovative
strategies for motivating 5 very different generational cohorts, Hungry Minds Inc., New York.

4. Weber, Lars 2010: Demographic Change and Economic Growth - Simulation on Growth
ModelsPhysica.