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Global TB Report 2024: Key Findings

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776 views61 pages

Global TB Report 2024: Key Findings

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benjamin cutipa
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We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Launched

29 October 2024

Main findings and


messages
Acknowledgements
193 countries and areas that reported data
>500 people who contributed to reporting and review of data

Core Report Team, WHO HQ


Taghreed Adam, Nim Arinaminapathy, Annabel Baddeley, Mathieu Bastard, Saskia den Boon,
Dennis Falzon, Katherine Floyd, Nebiat Gebreselassie, Irwin Law, Hazim Timimi, Takuya Yamanaka

Other WHO staff: HQ, regional and country offices


Jean Louis Abena Foe, Pedro Avedillo, Kenza Bennani, Vineet Bhatia, Delia Boccia, Martin van den Boom, Annemieke Brands,
Maria Regina Christian, Francesca Conradie, Monica Dias, Michel Gasana, Inés Garica Baena, Medea Gegia, Licé Gonzalez
Angulo, Christian Gunneberg, Akudo Ikpeazu, Jean Iragena, Tauhid Islam, Ernesto Jaramillo, Avinash Kanchar, Tereza Kasaeva,
Alexei Korobitsyn, Giorgi Kuchukhidze, Marek Lalli, Franciso León, Farai Mavhunga, Cecily Miller, Francis Mhimbira,
Fuad Mirzayev, Ernesto Montoro, Fukushi Morishita, Carl-Michael Nathanson, Linh Nguyen, Cicilia Gita Parwati, Kyung Oh,
Kalpeshsinh Rahevar, Md Kamar Rezwan, Samuel Schumacher, Anna Stukulova, Lana Syed, Sabine Verkuijl, Kerri Viney,
Elena Vovc, Yi Wang, Manami Yanagawa, Askar Yedilbayev, Matteo Zignol; plus all focal points for TB in WHO country offices

Other key contributors to report content


Pete Dodd (Sheffield University, UK)

Funding
USAID; governments of France and Republic of Korea
Background/context
Report purpose

The report provides a comprehensive and


up-to-date assessment of the TB epidemic
and of progress in the response at global,
regional and country levels, in the context of
global commitments, strategies and targets

WHO End TB Strategy, 2016-2035


UN Sustainable Development Goals, 2016-2030
2023 UN high-level meeting on TB
WHO End TB Strategy
2016–2035

MILESTONES TARGETS
INDICATORS
2020 2025 2030 2035
1. Reduction in number of TB
35% 75% 90% 95%
deaths compared with 2015 (%)

2. Reduction in TB incidence rate 20% 50% 80% 90%


compared with 2015 (%)
3. Percentage of TB patients and
their households facing Zero Zero Zero Zero
catastrophic costs due to TB
UN Sustainable Development Goals
2016–2030

SDG Target 3.3 includes


ending the TB epidemic

TB incidence rate is indicator


for assessment of progress
2023 UN high-level meeting on TB
Global targets

Indicator Global Target


TB treatment coverage 90% by 2027
Coverage of TB preventive treatment for priority groups
90% by 2027
(household contacts of people with TB; people living with HIV)
Coverage of rapid diagnostic testing for TB 100% by 2027
Coverage of health and social benefits package for people with TB 100% by 2027
Availability of new TB vaccines that are safe and effective Rollout initiated, preferably within 5 years
Annual funding for universal access to quality prevention,
US$ 22 billion by 2027, US$ 35 billion by 2030
diagnosis, treatment and care for TB
Annual funding for TB research US$ 5 billion by 2027
Main sources of data
Main source of data for report
Annual rounds of global TB data collection from 215 countries and areas

WHO Region Countries and areas that WHO Member States


reported data in 2024 that reported data in 2024
Africa 47/47 47/47
Americas 40/45 34/35
Eastern Mediterranean 21/22 20/21
Europe 40/54 39/53
South-East Asia 11/11 11/11
Western Pacific 34/36 27/27
All regions 193/215 178/194

Plus: SDG, OECD & World Bank databases


Datasets and estimates from UNAIDS
WHO mortality database and Global Health Observatory
Data from national TB prevalence surveys, drug resistance surveys, inventory studies
Main topics
Six main topics covered in the report

1. TB disease burden

2. TB diagnosis & treatment

3. TB prevention & screening

4. TB financing

5. Universal health coverage & TB determinants

6. TB research
Featured topics (on webpages)

1. TB & pregnancy

2. The second national TB inventory study in Indonesia

3. Asymptomatic TB

4. Multisectoral accountability in the TB response

5. Community and civil society engagement in the TB response


Overarching findings and
headline numbers
Overarching findings
Although ending the global TB epidemic remains a distant goal, there
are several positive trends
• Global rise in number of people falling ill with TB has slowed and started to stabilize
• Global number of people dying from TB each year continues to fall
• WHO African and European regions have made good progress towards the 2025
milestones for reductions in TB incidence and mortality
• Globally reported number of people newly diagnosed with TB reached new high in 2023
• Treatment success rate for people with drug-susceptible TB has been sustained at a
high level and continues to improve for people with drug-resistant TB
• Coverage of TB preventive treatment has been sustained for people living with HIV and
continues to improve for household contacts of people diagnosed with TB
Headline global numbers
2023 unless stated
▪ Incident TB cases: 10.8 million (95% UI: 10.1-11.7 million)
▪ rate, 134 per 100,000 population
▪ TB deaths: 1.25 million (95% UI: 1.13-1.37 million)
▪ 1.09 million among HIV-negative people
▪ 161k among people with HIV*
▪ Number of people newly diagnosed with TB and reported: 8.2 million
▪ Treatment success rate, drug-susceptible TB (enrolled in 2022): 88%
▪ Incident cases of MDR/RR-TB: 400k (95% UI: 360-440k)
▪ Number of people enrolled on treatment for MDR/RR-TB: 176k
▪ Treatment success rate, MDR/RR-TB (enrolled in 2021): 68%
▪ Number of people provided with TB preventive treatment: 4.7 million
*officially classified as deaths caused by HIV/AIDS
Estimates of
TB disease burden
Global rise in TB incidence slowing,
starting to stabilize
Best estimate of 10.8 million in 2023, small rise from 10.7 million in 2022
15

10.8 Most of the


10.1 increase between
Millions per year

10 2022 and 2023


10.4 due to population
growth

0
2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Shaded area shows 95% uncertainty interval


Global TB incidence rate almost stabilized
0.2% increase between 2022 and 2023

200
Total
Rate per 100 000 population per year

150 Best estimate of


134 per 100 000
population in 2023,
virtually the same
100 as in 2022
2025 End TB Strategy milestone
50% reduction from 2015 level 8.3% below the
2015 level of 147
50

2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Reduction 2015–2020 was 12%; from 2010–2020, 22%


8 countries, 67% of global cases in 2023
87% in 30 high TB burden countries

China

Bangladesh
Philippines
Pakistan

Number of
incident cases Nigeria India

100,000 Indonesia
500,000 Democratic
Republic of the
1,000,000 Congo

2,000,000

Circles shown for countries with at least 100 000 estimated cases
Most TB cases among adults, more men than women
55% men, 33% women, 12% children and young adolescents (<15 years)
Estimated number of cases in 2023 (millions)

1.5

1
Male

0.5 Female

0
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 ≥65
Age group (years)
Further fall in global number of deaths from
TB, continuing reversal of 2019-2021 increases
2.5 Total
(millions)
deaths(millions)

2.0
1.25 million in 2023,
1.30 down from 1.32 million
ofdeaths

1.5
in 2022, 1.42 million in
2021 and 1.40 million
in 2020;
Numberof

1.0 1.13 back below the level of


Number

People with HIV HIV-negative people


2019 in 2022 and 2023
0.5
2025 milestone 0.167
161k in 2023, down
0 from 374k in 2015

2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Shaded areas show 95% uncertainty intervals


2023 number of deaths 23% below level of 2015,
almost one third of the way to 2025 milestone
2.5
Total

2.0
1.63 million in 2015
Millions per year

1.5
1.25 million in 2023
1.0
2025 End TB Strategy milestone
75% reduction from 2015 level
0.5

0
2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Reduction 2015–2019 was 19%; from 2010–2019, 33%


COVID-related disruptions resulted in
almost 700,000 excess deaths from TB
2.5
Number of deaths (millions)

2.0
Estimated actual number

1.5 Shaded area


between solid blue
and red lines: excess
1.0 deaths in 2020, 2021,
Predicted number,
pre-pandemic trend
2022, 2023
0.5

0
2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Blue shaded area shows 95% uncertainty interval


In 2023, TB probably returned to being the leading
cause of death from an infectious disease

Estimated number of TB deaths 1.09 million


among HIV-negative people* (95% UI: 0.98–1.20)

Officially reported number of 320,000


deaths from COVID-19

Estimated number of deaths 0.63 million


(95% UI: 0.61–0.66)
from HIV/AIDS

*Deaths from TB among people with HIV officially classified as deaths from HIV/AIDS
Sources: Coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2023 (https://covid19.who.int/)
AIDS info. Geneva: UNAIDS; 2024. (https://aidsinfo.unaids.org/).
Better progress in reducing
TB incidence rate in 2 regions
Africa Americas South-East Asia

Rate per 100 000 population per year


African Region
&
European
Region Dashed lines
estimated to 24% reduction, 20% increase 6.7% reduction, show 2025
have passed 2015–2023 2015–2023 2015–2023 milestone of
first Strategy the End TB
Europe Eastern Mediterranean Western Pacific
milestone Strategy: 50%
(20% reduction reduction,
from 2015) 2015–2025

27% reduction, 3.4% reduction, 3.5% reduction,


2015–2023 2015–2023 2015–2023
Shaded areas
show 95% 2010 2015 2023 2010 2015 2023 2010 2015 2023
uncertainty
intervals
79 countries estimated to have achieved
reduction of ≥20% since 2015

Mostly in Africa
and Europe

Decrease, ≥50%%
Increase, >5% n=79
Decrease, 20-49%
Stable, -5% to +5% Decrease, 10-19%
Decrease, 6-9%
Better progress in reducing TB deaths in 2 regions
Africa Americas South-East Asia

African Total TB deaths per year (thousands)


Region &
European
Region 42% reduction, 11% decrease Dashed lines
44% increase
estimated 2015–2023 2015–2023 2015–2023 show 2025
to have milestone of
passed first the End TB
Strategy Europe Eastern Mediterranean Western Pacific Strategy: 75%
milestone reduction,
(35% 2015–2025
reduction
from 2015)

7.0% decrease 12% decrease


38% reduction, 2015–2023 2015–2023
2015–2023
Shaded areas
show 95%
2010 2015 2023 2010 2015 2023 2010 2015 2023
uncertainty
intervals
43 countries estimated to have achieved
reduction of ≥35% since 2015

Mostly in Africa
and Europe

Decrease, ≥50%
Increase, >5% n=43
Decrease, 35-49%
Stable, -5% to +5% Decrease, 20-34%

Decrease, 6-19%
Estimation of TB disease burden
during COVID-19 pandemic and its
aftermath is difficult
▪ Country and region-specific dynamic models relied
upon for low and middle-income countries with large
absolute or relative reductions in TB case notifications
(beyond historical trends) in 2020 and/or 2021

▪ New direct measurements of disease burden needed


▪ National VR systems
▪ National TB prevalence surveys*
▪ National inventory studies to measure underreporting**

*Surveys recently completed in Cambodia (3rd survey) and Timor-Leste; 12 countries considering repeat surveys:
Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
**Second study completed in 2023 in Indonesia (see the report “featured topics”; planned in the Philippines and Viet Nam
Estimated number of people developing
MDR/RR-TB relatively stable from 2020–2023
520
(460-580)
600
400
Thousands per year

(360- 440)

400

200

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Shaded area shows 95% uncertainty interval


Declines in proportion of people with TB
who have MDR/RR-TB, 2015–2023
People with no previous history of TB treatment People previously treated for TB

30
Proportion with MDR/RR-TB (%)

5
4.1
4 20
3.2 20
16
3

2
10
1

0 0

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Shaded areas show 95% uncertainty intervals


TB diagnosis & treatment
Further global recovery in number of people
newly diagnosed with TB, to new historic high
Numbers in 2022 & 2023 probably include sizeable backlog of people whose diagnosis was delayed by COVID disruptions

8.5
8.2
Millions of case notifications

8.0

7.5 7.5
(new cases)

7.1
7.0

6.5
18% drop,
2019–2020 6.4
6.0

5.5 5.8

2010 2013 2015 2019 2020 2023


Further narrowing of global gap between
estimated number of people falling ill with TB
and reported number newly diagnosed
15
TB incidence
10.8
10.3 10.1 Case notifications in
Millions per year

10 2022 & 2023


probably include
Case notifications of people sizeable backlog of
newly diagnosed with TB 8.2
7.1
people whose
5 5.8 diagnosis was
delayed by COVID
disruptions

2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Shaded area shows the


95% uncertainty interval
TB treatment coverage* appears to have
recovered to above pre-pandemic levels
*Approximated as the number of people newly diagnosed in a given year divided by estimated TB incidence in the same year

100
Target for 2027 set at the 2023 UN high-level meeting on TB

Estimates for
Treatment coverage (%)

2022 and 2023


75 probably
distorted by
sizeable backlog
of people newly
50 diagnosed in
The shaded area represents 2022 and 2023,
the 95% uncertainty interval whose diagnosis
was delayed
25 during COVID
disruptions

0
2010 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Number of people diagnosed & treated for MDR/RR-TB
virtually stable and considerably below estimated
number developing MDR/RR-TB each year
600
Incident cases of
MDR/RR-TB 400
(360-440)
Thousands

400

Detected with MDR/RR-TB


189
200
176
Enrolled on treatment for MDR/RR-TB

0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Treatment success rates
Sustained or improving
100
Treatment success rate (%)
People treated for drug-susceptible TB
90

86% 87% 88%


80

68%
70
64%
People treated for MDR/RR-TB
60

50%
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10 countries account for 67% of the global gap
between TB incidence and reported cases

China
Bangladesh
Viet Nam
Philippines
Pakistan
Size of gap Myanmar
Nigeria
India
50 000
Indonesia
Democratic
250 000
Republic of
the Congo
500 000

From global perspective, increased coverage of diagnosis


and treatment of particular importance in these countries
Global stagnation in % of people diagnosed
with TB that was bacteriologically confirmed
100

Percentage (%) 80

63% 62%
60

40

20

0
2010 2014 2017 2020 2023
Global coverage of rapid testing
limited increase in coverage in 2023, but much higher number of people tested

100

Percentage of people diagnosed with TB


who were initially tested with a WRD
80

60
47% 48%

40

20
8.9%

0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
WRD: WHO-recommended rapid diagnostic test
TB prevention & screening
Most emphasis on TB preventive
treatment (TPT)
Number of people provided with TPT* increasing,
due to growing provision to household contacts
5 4.7

3.9
4
3.6

2.9 2.9
Millions

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Household contacts aged ≥5 years


Household contacts aged <5 years
*TPT;
People living with HIV
TB preventive treatment
Global coverage of TB preventive treatment
improving for household contacts, stable for
people living with HIV, both short of 90% target
100
90% target for 2027
80
Coverage (%)

56%
60 People living with HIV
newly enrolled on ART
40

21% Household contacts of


20 people newly diagnosed
with TB
0
2015 2023
Funding for TB diagnosis,
treatment and prevention
Funding for TB prevention, diagnosis and treatment
down since 2019 and only 26% of 2027 target

24 Target for 2027 set at 2023 UN high-level meeting


Billions (constant 2023 US$)

20

16

12

8
5.7
Total
4 Domestic funding
International donor funding
0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Funding has increased in high TB burden and
global watchlist countries outside BRICS,
and fallen in BRICS
High TB burden and GW* countries
outside BRICS BRICS
Billions (constant 2023 US$)

1.0 4
Domestic funding
0.75 3
Domestic funding
0.50 2
International donor funding
0.25 1
International donor funding
0 0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

GW: global TB watchlist countries; Cambodia, Russian Federation (part of the BRICS group) and Zimbabwe
BRICS: Brazil, Russian Federation India, China, South Africa
UHC and TB determinants
Almost all high TB burden countries far from
UHC*, based on status of SDG UHC indicators
Low-income
40

30
Central African Republic Sierra Leone
20
Uganda
DR Congo
% of the general population facing

Liberia
catastrophic health expenditures
10 Tanzania
Mozambique
0 Ethiopia *Universal health
20 40 60 80
Lower middle-income
coverage
16 40 Angola Everyone can
with 30
Bangladesh
access the health
India
values 20
Nigeria Myanmar Mongolia
services they
Lesotho Kenya
>5% 10 Congo Philippines need without
Pakistan Viet Nam
0 Zambia
Indonesia
suffering financial
20 40 60 80
Upper middle-income
hardship
40

30
China
20
Brazil
10 Gabon
Namibia
0
South Africa Thailand Thailand closest
20 40 60 80

Health service coverage index (0-100)


About half of people with TB and their
households face catastrophic costs
pooled average = 49%; far above End TB Strategy target of zero
Solomon Islands
Namibia
Timor-Leste
Zimbabwe
Niger
Nigeria
Mongolia
Somalia
35 Ghana
Laos PDR
countries Viet Nam
including Myanmar
Zambia
18 high TB Nepal
DR Congo
burden South Africa
Burkina Faso
countries Uganda
and 1 Colomia
Mali
global TB Argentina
Brazil
watchlist Tanzania
country Philippines
Fiji
Gambia
Indonesia
Benin
Even higher for
Papua New Guinea
Cambodia
people with drug-
Congo
Thailand
resistant TB: pooled
Kenya
Lesotho
average 82%
El Salvador
Pooled average

0 25 50 75 100
Percentage facing catastrophic costs
TB incidence rate is strongly associated with
Figure 18

average income levels and undernutrition


Each dot represents a country or area
TB incidence per 100,000 population in 2023 (log scale)

1000 1000

100 100

10 10

1 1
1 10 100 0.3 3 30
GDP per capita (US$ thousands) Prevalence of undernutrition
A large number of new TB cases are
attributable to five risk factors:
undernutrition, alcohol use, smoking, HIV infection, diabetes

Undernutrition
Alcohol use disorders
Smoking
HIV infection
Diabetes

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

Number of attributable cases (millions)


TB research
Requirements to reach 2030
and 2035 targets

Technological breakthrough by 2025, to


enable acceleration of decline in TB incidence
to far beyond levels achieved historically

e.g. a new TB vaccine


Status of pipelines for diagnostics,
drugs and vaccines*

50+ diagnostic tests for TB


disease and infection in
development
30+ clinical trials and other
research studies for treatment
of TB infection

29 drugs for treatment of


TB disease in clinical trials 15 vaccine candidates in
clinical trials

*as of August 2024


Funding for TB research growing very slowly
and insufficient, only 20% of global target
6

Target for 2027 set at 2023 UN high-level meeting on TB


5
Billions (current US$)

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Treatment Action Group, Stop TB Partnership. Tuberculosis research funding trends 2005-2022. New York: Treatment Action Group;
2023 (https://www.treatmentactiongroup.org/resources/tbrd-report/tbrd-report-2023/
Conclusions
Overarching
conclusion

Ending the global TB


epidemic requires
translating the
commitments made at the
2023 UN high-level
meeting on TB into action
Summary of progress towards global TB targets

See Introduction
facing page in the
report
For more
information
Report landing page

https://www.who.int/teams/global-tuberculosis-programme/tb-reports/global-tuberculosis-report-2024
Report app

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