Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 20th February 2024

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM Date GOLD* SILVER*
Gold 999 62077 62017
19th February 2024 62017 71210
Gold 995 61828 61769
Gold 916 56862 56808 16th February 2024 61743 70922

Gold 750 46558 46513

15th February 2024 61508 70203
Gold 585 36315 36280
14th February 2024 61590 69150
Silver 999 71240 71210
Rate as exclusive of GST as of 19th February 2024 Gold is Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg The above rates are IBJA PM Rates; *Rates are exclusive of GST

COMEX Futures Watch ETF Holdings as on Previous Close

Description Contract Close Change %Chg ETFs In Tonnes Net Change

Gold($/oz) APR 24 2024.10 9.20 0.46 SPDR Gold 837.89 0.58

Silver($/oz) MAR 24 23.48 0.52 2.28 iShares Silver 13,530.27 -105.29

Gold and Silver Fix Bullion Futures DGCX Gold Ratio

Description LTP Description Contract LTP Description LTP
Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 2020.35 Gold($/oz) FEB. 24 2029.5
Gold Silver Ratio 86.22
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 2017.05 Gold Quanto APR. 24 62024

23.09 Silver($/oz) MAR. 24 23.04 Gold Crude Ratio 25.56

Silver London Fix($/oz)

Weekly CFTC Positions MCX Indices

Long Short Net Index Close Net Change % Chg
Gold($/oz) 109364 62964 46400
MCX iCOMDEX
15998.58 -26.65 -0.17 %
Silver 32399 42031 -9632 Bullion

Macro-Economic Indicators
Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact
20th February 08:30 PM United States CB Leading Index m/m -0.3% -0.1% Low
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary
 Gold traded in a narrow range ahead of clues on the outlook for US interest rates, with the Federal Reserve set to release minutes of its recent meeting midweek.
Bullion for immediate delivery touched $2,023 an ounce, after advancing by more than 1% over the prior two sessions. While trading volumes may be boosted on
Monday as markets in China reopened following a week-long break — with most local assets and commodities trading flat to lower — the US has a federal holiday
that may hurt activity. The precious metal has eased marginally year-to-date, with the outlook for US monetary policy the main determinant of sentiment. In the US,
the Fed held rates steady in late January, and policymakers have signaled they are in no hurry to start cutting them, given that US data points to sticky inflation.
Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on bullion as it doesn’t yield interest. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower after posting seven weekly gains, its best
run since September.

 Exchange-traded funds cut 186,069 troy ounces of gold from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 2.65 million ounces,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was the sixth straight day of declines. The sales were equivalent to $374.7 million at the previous spot price. Total
gold held by ETFs fell 3.1 percent this year to 82.9 million ounces, the lowest level since Jan. 16, 2020. Gold declined 2.4 percent this year to $2,013.59 an ounce and
rose by 0.5 percent in the latest session. State Street's SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest precious-metals ETF, boosted its holdings by 18,520 ounces in the last session.
The fund's total of 26.9 million ounces has a market value of $54.2 billion. ETFs added 2.53 million troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last trading session,
bringing this year's net sales to 284,445 ounces.

 Polymetal International Plc will no longer rank among the world’s top 10 gold miners by output after the sale of its Russian business, which was sanctioned by the
US last year due to the invasion of Ukraine. The gold miner agreed to sell its Russian unit — that it spent decades building — to Russian firm Mangazeya Plus, with
completion of the deal marked for end-March, Polymetal said on Monday. The deal is valued at about $3.7 billion, yet after tax Polymetal is expected to receive $300
million in cash as it includes third-party debt and intra-group arrangements. The sale highlights the consequences that international businesses with Russian
exposure are facing after President Vladimir Putin ordered to send troops to Ukraine almost two years ago. Following the invasion, Polymetal switched its domicile
from Jersey, deemed an unfriendly jurisdiction by the Kremlin, to Kazakhstan to unblock international payments, including dividends, from Russia. After the US
sanctioned the St. Petersburg-based unit in May 2023, Polymetal began looking for a buyer for the assets, which accounted for 70% of its revenue last year. That
wasn’t an easy task. Mangazeya Plus is a part of a Russian group that has small gold mining assets in Siberia and is controlled by entrepreneur Sergey Yanchukov.
Neither he nor the company are under penalties. While the buyer showed interest during early stages, it turned into the leading bidder following sanctions on many
bigger Russian gold-miners at the end of last year, Polymetal’s Chief Executive Officer Vitaly Nesis said in a phone interview. The transaction, which still requires
shareholder approval, will mark a new stage for Polymetal, a miner that was founded in 1998. It will be left with an annual output of about 500,000 ounces per year,
turning it into it mid-size producer by global standards. In 2023 the group produced 1.7 million ounces in gold equivalent, including the Russian unit.

 Investors are plowing billions into money-market funds by the day. Corporate treasurers are hoarding record amounts of cash. The market is digesting a glut of
Treasury bills without a hiccup. For an asset class that many market prognosticators all but left for dead to start the year, there’s still plenty of life left in
cash. Investors have added $128 billion to US money-market funds since the start of the year, Investment Company Institute data show. Companies were sitting on a
record $4.4 trillion of cash at the end of the third quarter, and after a flood of more than $1 trillion of T-bills since mid-2023, the market has room for more. It’s a
stark contrast to just a couple of months ago, when one of the hottest questions on Wall Street was where investors would redeploy all their cash holdings once the
Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates and making stockpiles of money less appealing. But a lot’s changed since then. Traders have dramatically dialed back
policy easing expectations, for one. The more time it takes the central bank to begin lowering its benchmark, the longer cash held in money-market funds should be
able to earn 4%, 5% or more, keeping investors from looking further afield. Add to those corporate executives who seem in little rush to spend money following the
pandemic and depositors still worried about the state of the banking system, and all signs point to 2024 being another big year for cash. Cash had been a long-
ignored option for most of the decade following the financial crisis as the Fed kept borrowing costs near zero. But that changed after a measured, three-year hiking
cycle and the pandemic sparked a scramble for havens. In 2022, the Fed embarked on the most aggressive pace of rate increases in decades, sending rates well
above 5%, and everyone from asset managers to mom-and-pop investors took note of the attractiveness of money-market funds, T-bills and other short-term assets
versus earning little-to-nothing on bank deposits. As a result, more than $1 trillion flowed into money funds last year, the most for any year seen in ICI records dating
back to 2007.

Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading range-bound today on the international bourses. We expect gold and silver prices to trade range-bound to
slightly higher for the day, as gold prices were steady after a three-day gain as traders counted down to the release of Federal Reserve minutes and commentary
from US central bankers that’ll shape expectations for interest rates.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Time Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold – COMEX Apr 1975 2000 2020 2035 2060 2090

Silver – COMEX Mar 22.50 22.70 22.90 23.10 23.25 23.55

Gold – MCX Apr 61500 61650 61850 62100 62250 62450

Silver – MCX Mar 69800 70500 71000 71500 72000 72650

Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update
Dollar Index Market Summary and News
 The greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers and amid thin volumes
LTP/Close Change % Change
while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as robust consumer spending
104.29 0.00 0.00 during China’s weeklong Lunar New Year holiday lifted sentiment during the Asia
session. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls as much as 0.2%, before paring losses; the
cash Treasury market is closed Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. Spot volumes
Bond Yield on single-bank platforms run at around 60% of recent averages, two Europe-based
traders say; Options volumes at 67% of averages, according to data from the
10 YR Bonds LTP Change Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; Profit taking in dollar longs seen during
around the Tokyo fix: trader. NZD/USD rallies 0.5% to 0.6152, up a fourth day as it hits
United States 4.2792 0.0000 a one-week high; AUD/USD halves a 0.3% advance to trade at 0.6540, heading for a
fourth day of gains for the first time since November. A benchmark gauge of Chinese
Europe 2.4100 0.0090
stocks rose in early trading with NZD outperforming after a local bank pushed out the
Japan 0.7350 0.0000 timing of the first RBNZ rate cut; Chinese travel and spending during the
holiday exceeded levels from before the pandemic, while the People’s Bank of China
India 7.0990 0.0110 kept its key rate on hold over the weekend. EUR/USD stays within 1.0772-1.0789
range; one-month 10d flies hit the lowest since at least 2005 on Friday as implied
volatility on the tenor trades near a two-year low. Leveraged offers seen at 1.0820-50:
Emerging Market Currency trader. GBP/USD up 0.1% to 1.2616, versus 1.2630 day high; one-week implied vol
trails realized by 193 basis points; USD/JPY down 0.2% to 149.95; 21-DMA support
Currency LTP Change comes at 148.61.
Brazil Real 4.9606 -0.0055  Emerging-markets assets were little changed on Monday with a US holiday draining
liquidity from global markets and a relatively calm reopening of Chinese stocks
South Korea Won 1335.15 -0.4000
following the Lunar New Year break. Investors are preparing for US economic activity
Russia Rubble data later this week and next. The data could bring more clarity about the timing and
92.5349 0.1521
the pace of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate cuts. The Peruvian sol and
Chinese Yuan 7.1981 0.0045 the Chilean peso led gains versus the dollar. Brazil’s economy grew more than
expected in December. Israel’s economy suffered one of its worst-ever slumps.
Vietnam Dong 24527 -4 Paraguay’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate. The spread between EM
sovereign bonds over Treasuries fell to the narrowest in 2 years.
Mexican Peso 17.0424 -0.0138
 Indian bond traders will look forward to a 302b-rupee ($3.6b) auction of state
government notes and liquidity injection by the central bank via a 3-day variable rate
NSE Currency Market Watch repo auction. USD/INR was little changed at 83.0163 on Friday. Implied opening from
forwards suggest spot may start trading around 83.03.10-year yields rose 1bp to 7.1%
Currency LTP Change on Friday. Indian FX and bond markets were shut Monday for a local holiday. Global
Funds Sell Net 7.55B Rupees of Indian Stocks Feb. 19: NSE. State-run
NDF 83.11 -0.01 banks bought 12.6 billion rupees of sovereign bonds on Feb. 16: CCIL data. Foreign
banks bought 15.6 billion rupees of bonds.
USDINR 83.035 -0.0325
JPYINR 55.4025 -0.0925
GBPINR 104.58 0.27
EURINR 89.5 0.2425
USDJPY 149.77 0.13
GBPUSD 1.2598 0.004
EURUSD 1.0777 0.0031

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR Spot 82.8025 82.8675 82.9355 83.0075 83.0550 83.1275

Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion Technical Market Update

Gold Market Update

Market View
Open 61970
High 62107
Low 61903
Close 62004
Value Change 126
% Change 0.2
Spread Near-Next 391
Volume (Lots) 2117
Open Interest 13316
Change in OI (%) -0.62%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

BUY GOLD APR (MCX) AT 61850 SL 61650 TARGET 62100/62250

Silver Market Update

Market View

Open 71395
High 71650
Low 71181
Close 71306
Value Change -806
% Change -1.12
Spread Near-Next 1522
Volume (Lots) 8109
Open Interest 21566
Change in OI (%) -1.41%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

BUY SILVER MAR (MCX) AT 71000 SL 70500 TARGET 71700/72000

Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View

Open 83.0525
High 83.065
Low 83.03
Close 83.035
Value Change -0.0325
% Change -0.0391
Spread Near-Next 0.1978
Volume (Lots) 846607
Open Interest 2424646
Change in OI (%) 0.00%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

The USDINR future witnessed a flat opening at 83.05, which was followed by a session that
showed consolidation in narrow range with negative buyer with candle closures near low. A red
candle formed by the USDINR price facing resistance 10-days moving average placed at 83.06.
On the daily chart, the momentum indicator RSI trailing between 41-50 level while MACD has
made a positive crossover below the zero-line. We are anticipating that the price of USDINR
futures will fluctuate today between 82.95 and 83.10.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR February 82.9025 82.9575 83.0075 83.1025 83.1525 83.2075

Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation Email

Kunal Shah Head of Research [email protected]

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]

Smit Bhayani Research Associate [email protected]

Utkarsh Dubey Currency Research Associate [email protected]

This Document has been prepared by Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. The
information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Nirmal Bang
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