Executive summary

Bullish sparks as winter starts

September saw a slight divergence in price moves between Europe and Asia. The The market is experiencing bullish signs for winter. The NOAA’s September-issued
title transfer facility (TTF) inched up from $12.1 per million British thermal units ENSO probabilities now suggest a 77% chance of a La-Nina from December to
(MMBtu) to $12.4 per MMBtu, while Asian spot LNG prices dipped from $13.8 February, up from 67% in August. There is also potential for additional demand
per MMBtu to $13.1 per MMBtu. Both benchmarks were higher year-on-year. from Egypt due to insufficient production and Brazil due to drought conditions.
However, the market’s ability to absorb high prices continues to be limited due to
Maintenance shaped much of the European gas supply in September. Total
macro weakness.
pipeline imports fell 22.2% from August, due to scheduled maintenance in
Norway and Algeria. Piped gas from Norway fell 31.9% month-on-month (MoM), Our new LNG supply outlook features lower supply in the mid-term (2024-2028)
averaging 220 million cubic meters per day (MMcmd), but was 26.8% above market due to delays in start-ups and ramp-ups but a healthier pre-final
September 2023 levels. Household demand will dominate consumption in the investment decision (FID) pipeline for the early 2030s. Our new LNG demand
coming days and months. outlook features lower demand in the mid-term (2024-2029) due to slower
supply additions and ongoing challenges to demand from the gas-intensive
In the US, Henry hub prices saw notable gains throughout September with
manufacturing sector. Post-2030 demand has been revised upward due to lower
normalizing balances, tapered production levels and weather forecasts.
pipeline gas imports into China. The call for new LNG production is now over 140
Temperatures continued their above-average trend keeping gas-for-power
Mtpa by 2035.
demand 3% above the September 2023 level, averaging 41.9 billion cubic feet per
day (Bcfd). More recently, Hurricane Helene hit Florida on 19 September and September was a busy month for LNG contracts, with six sales and purchase
caused millions of power outages in the Southeast. This was partly offset by small agreements (SPAs) with a total of 4.2 Mtpa and five heads of agreements (HoAs)
supply reductions by producers in the Gulf of Mexico. As the offshore region in announced. Much of the project development progress was through HoAs, with a
the Gulf of Mexico now only accounts for around 2% of the country’s gas, the risk total of 4.8 Mtpa announced by Texas LNG, Commonwealth LNG, and Ruwais.
to gas production is muted compared to 20 years ago.
Four regasification projects were commissioned in 3Q 2024, with a total capacity
Japanese importers have begun seeking cargoes for November-February delivery of 20.4 Mtpa. Three were in China, including the 4 Mtpa Huizhou LNG 1, owned
while Korean importers have comfortable inventory with likely sufficient storage by Guangdong Energy Group, which received its commissioning cargo in late
ahead of the peak-demand winter season. South Korea’s gas inventories are August. The 6 Mtpa Chaozhou Huaying LNG 1 was commissioned in early
expected to have ended September at 4.89 million tonnes (Mt), above the five- September, making it Sinopec’s first startup in Guangdong province. Also in
year average (2019-2023) of 4.1 Mt. Meanwhile, Japan’s inventories are expected September, Tianjin PipeChina LNG 2 started commercial operation, bringing the
to have ended September at 4.59 Mt, lower than the five-year average of 4.79 terminal’s total capacity from 6 Mtpa to 12 Mtpa. In Germany, the arrival of
Mt. In addition, four nuclear power plants in South Korea are scheduled to Mukran’s second FSRU vessel, Neptune, in early July, lifting the floating-based
complete maintenance in October, adding an extra 3.7 GW of nuclear capacity terminal’s regasification capacity from 5.51 Mtpa to 9.93 Mtpa.
ahead of winter.
As of September, the trading carrier orderbook consisted of 375 vessels,
China's gas demand growth accelerated over the summer, rising from 3.6% year- including the Arctic LNG 2 fleet. After a lull in orders in June and August, the
on-year (YoY) in 2Q to 9% YoY in July and 10.5% YoY in August, driven primarily by orderbook saw the addition of eight carriers, including six 271,000 cubic meter
the city gas sector. In August, city gas demand sustained double-digit growth of QC-max category vessels for Qatar Energy at Hudong Zhonghua and two carriers
19.3% YoY, with transportation a key driver, and despite residential and heating for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation at Dalian shipyard.
gas demand entering the shoulder season. Since 2023, LNG trucks have
maintained strong price competitiveness against diesel trucks. This has resulted
in spiking sales and increased use of LNG trucks in transportation.

2
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – International

Limited moves in a shoulder month

September saw a slight divergence in price International natural gas prices*
moves between Europe and Asia. The TTF USD per million British thermal units (MMBtu)
inched up from $12.1 per MMBtu to $12.4 90 C2G Band
per MMBtu, while Asian spot LNG prices
80 HH
inched down from $13.8 per MMBtu to $13.1
per MMBtu. Both benchmarks were higher TTF
70
year on year. The TTF briefly declined around Asia spot
20 September due to unverified reports 60 Asia oil-indexed
suggesting Azerbaijan and Ukraine had agreed 50
to continue gas transits to the EU through
Ukraine after Gazprom’s transit agreement 40
expired. Prices rebounded once this 30
was proven incorrect and remained
supported by heavy maintenance on the 20
Norwegian Continental Shelf, expectations of 10
colder-than-normal weather, and geopolitical
escalations in the Middle East. Asian spot 0
prices inched down on overall weak demand, Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24
although movements on the TTF have Monthly LNG exports (+ve) and imports (-ve) by region**
prevented a further decline. Current Asian
Million tonnes (Mt)
spot prices are understood to be high enough
for price-sensitive importers to hold back 50 Others
purchases. Year-on-year increases in supply 40 Western Europe
were observed from Tangguh Train 3, North- 30 Southern Europe
West Shelf, and Prelude, which, notably, has 20 South East Asia
not experienced an unplanned outage since
10 South Asia
January 2023, suggesting the extensive
maintenance at the floating LNG project in 2H 0 East Asia
2023 was effective. Ichthys, where unplanned -10 Others
maintenance has been ongoing since July, saw -20
50% lower production year-on-year. Large West Africa
-30
year-on-year import additions were Southeast Asia
concentrated in the Asia Pacific, supported by -40
Russia
sustained above-normal temperatures. -50
North America
Elsewhere, Egypt imported 0.35 Mt in
September, tightening the Mediterranean Middle East
balance. Australia
*Asia spot price is the Japan spot import price weekly average. HH: Henry Hub. TTF: Title Transfer Facility. **East Asia includes mainland China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (China)
Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution; LSEG Data and Analytics

3
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – Europe

Elevated heating demand as pipelines drop for scheduled maintenance in September

Maintenance shaped much of the European Europe imports by source
gas supply in September. Total pipeline Billion cubic meters (Bcm)
imports fell 22.2% from August due to 40
scheduled maintenance in Norway and 35
Algeria. Piped gas from Norway fell 31.9%
MoM, averaging 220 MMcmd, but was 30 Other LNG
26.8% above September 2023 levels. 25 Qatar LNG
Maintenance at the Medgaz pipeline from 20 Russia LNG
Algeria to Almería, Spain, led to a 26.8% US LNG
decline in flows from Africa this month, 15
Azerbaijan pipeline
reaching 65 MMcmd, 42.6% lower than last 10 Africa pipeline
year. Meanwhile, Russian pipeline flow
5 Norway pipeline
averaged 95 MMcmd in September, up 1%
from August. Due to declining pipeline flow 0 Russia pipeline
from other sources, the share of Russian gas
(pipeline and LNG) rose by 4%, to 18.2%, in
September. Meanwhile, rebounding LNG
imports increased their share in total Europe monthly gas demand
imports to 42.7%, up from 34.2% in August. Billion cubic meters (Bcm)
Given overall lower imports in September
(21.7 Bcm over 25.1 Bcm in August), end-of- 140 Excess demand
month storage levels rose by only 2 Forecast
percentage points to 94.37% (108.1 Bcm). 120 5-year average
Household demand will dominate 100
consumption in the coming days and
months. The beginning of the heating 80
season in October coincides with below-
average temperatures in Northwest- and 60
Central Europe, leading to elevated heating 40
demand in early and mid-October. In
Germany between 1 and 14 October, 20
household consumption is forecast to
be 45.3% above the 5-year average. For the 0
next 14 days, we expect German heating
demand to amount to 1.2 Bcm, compared to -20
an average of only 0.66 Bcm.
Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution

4
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market
Market Review
review – US

Prices see large uptick with storage levels normalizing and extreme weather conditions
Henry hub prices saw notable gains
Lower 48 weekly working gas in underground storage
throughout September, with normalizing
balances, tapered production levels and Billion cubic feet
weather forecasts.
4,000

The Henry Hub started the month at around

3,500
$2.2 per MMBtu but had climbed to $2.9 per 3,000
MMBtu levels by 30 September. This increase Range
2,500
can be attributed to extreme weather
conditions in the Southeast and Midwest 2,000 2023
causing production cuts from producers and
1,500 2024
storage levels continuing to return to their
five-year average. 1,000
2024 Forecast
Feedgas supply to LNG terminals remained 500
relatively unchanged at 12.7 Bcfd in
-
September, despite remaining volatile due to
extreme weather conditions and Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
maintenance shutdowns. Cameron’s LNG saw Feedgas supply by LNG terminal
a drop in flows of around 0.9 Bcfd at the Billion cubic feet per day
beginning of the month due to disruptions Cove Point Sabine Pass Corpus Christi Cameron Freeport Elba Calcasieu Pass
15
from Hurricane Francine, while Sabine pass 14
and Calcasieu avoided any declines. 13
Meanwhile, Cove Point LNG was shut down 12
to end the month because of annual 11
maintenance, taking 0.7 Bcfd off the market.
10
9
Storage injections continue to return to 8
7
normal levels as they ended September 6% 6
above the same week’s five-year average, 5
compared to 10% at the end of August. 4
However, storage levels did remain robust at 3
2
3.55 trillion cubic feet (Tfc) by 27 September. 1
0

Source: Rystad Energy North America Gas Market Fundamentals dashboard

5
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – Japan and South Korea

Japanese importers incentivized to increase inventory ahead of peak winter season

Japanese importers are seeking cargoes for
November-February delivery, while Korean Japan LNG inventory
importers have comfortable inventory with Million tonnes (Mt)
likely sufficient storage ahead of the peak- 7
demand winter season.
6
In South Korea, we expect gas inventories to 2023
have ended September at 4.89 Mt, 5
2024 2019-2023 range
remaining above the five-year average 4
(2019-2023) of 4.1 Mt. We expect Japan’s
inventories to have ended September at 3
4.59 Mt compared to the five-year average
2
of 4.79 Mt.
As of 29 September, LNG inventories for
1
major Japanese power utilities increased 0
8.7% month-on-month at 1.99 Mt, the same
level compared to the five-year average but
higher than the 1.64 Mt recorded at the end
of September 2023. South Korea LNG inventory
Million tonnes (Mt)
In western Japan, Shikoku Electric’s Ikata
unit 3 has been offline for planned 6
maintenance since mid-July, with its restart 2024
date delayed by ten days to 9 October. 5
2023
Four nuclear power plants in South Korea 4
plan to end maintenance in October, giving
an additional 3.7 GW of available nuclear 3
capacity.
2
Weatherwise, Japan forecasts a 70-80%
probability of above-average temperatures 1
for the week ending 18 October in most
regions. Meanwhile, South Korea is likely to 0
face a 70% probability of above-average
temperatures until 20 October.

Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution; Japan Electric Power Exchange; Japan Meteorological Agency; Korea Meteorological Administration

6 Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024

 Marketreview
Market review––China
China
August witnessed more growth in China demand
China's gas demand growth accelerated over China gas demand by sector
the summer, rising from 3.6% year-on-year Billion cubic meters (Bcm)
(YoY) in Q2 to 9% YoY in July and 10.5% YoY in
August, driven primarily by the city gas
50 Chemical feedstock City gas Industrial fuel Power YoY % 15%
sector. In August, city gas demand continued 45
to grow at a double-digit rate of 19.3% YoY, 40 10%
with transportation as a key driver, despite 35
residential and heating gas demand entering 30 5%
the shoulder season. LNG trucks have
maintained strong price competitiveness
25
against diesel trucks since 2023, with fuel 20 0%
costs around 60% of diesel for the same 15
transportation distance. This has resulted in 10 -5%
spiking sales and increased use of LNG trucks 5
in the transportation sector.
0 -10%
Summer cooling demand lifted gas for power
demand by 9.1% YoY in August, while
hydropower output remained strong with a
YoY increase of 9%. Hydropower generation China LNG import
grew over 30-40% in prior months, with Million tonnes
increased rainfall in regions with hydropower
9.00 2019-2022 range 2023 2024
capacities. Meanwhile, tepid industrial
activity continued to limit industrial gas 8.00
demand growth (as industrial fuel or chemical
7.00
feedstock), which rose 6.1% YoY compared to
4% YoY in July. China’s manufacturing 6.00
purchasing manager index (PMI) remained in
5.00
contraction territory, at 49.1 in August, with
key components, such as production and new 4.00
export orders, also below 50. Higher demand
growth lifted China’s LNG imports by 3.8% 3.00
above last year. However, the growth rate 2.00
remains significantly lower than over 20% YoY
growth seen from January to April. Since May, 1.00
China’s LNG buying spree has lost momentum -
due to ample storage and soft demand. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Rystad Energy GasMarketCube; Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution; China Customs; China National Bureau of Statistics

7
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – LNG exports:
exports Global

Global LNG exports see second month of recovery

Global LNG exports increased for the second Total exports by top country exporters
month in a row from 34.54 Mt in August to Million tonnes (Mt) of LNG
35.69 Mt in September. This is above the
2023 average of 33.95 Mt and the 2024 40 2023 2024
average of 34.39 Mt.
Mild decreases were observed in major LNG
exporters such as the US, Qatar and 35
Australia. However, increases from other
producers were able to push exports into a
net increase for the month.
30
Altamira FLNG, which exported its first cargo
Others
as a partial cargo in August, made its second
export in the last weekend of September. Nigeria
25
This second cargo will be a fully-sized cargo,
which will be the facility’s first following Indonesia
delayed commissioning activities due to Malaysia
impacts from Hurricane Francine. 20
Russia
Papua New Guinea exports decreased from
0.67 Mt in August to 0.51 Mt in September. Australia
The 2023 monthly average was about 0.68 15 Qatar
Mt, while this year the monthly average so
far has been around 0.63 Mt. United States
2023 Average
10
2024 Average

Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution, Argus

8
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – LNG exports: Australia

Australian LNG exports remain healthy despite some maintenance at Ichthys LNG
Australia’s LNG exports decreased from 6.94 Australia LNG exports by plant
Mt in August to 6.67 Mt in September. This
Million tonnes (Mt) of LNG
brings exports in line with the 2023 monthly
average of 6.67 Mt but below the 2024 8 2023 2024
average, so far, of 6.88 Mt.
In eastern Australia, exports increased from
2.09 Mt in August to 2.32 Mt in September. 7
The Santos-operated Gladstone LNG
experienced a recovery in exports,
increasing from 0.43 Mt in August to 0.51 Mt 6 Prelude FLNG
in September as maintenance concluded in
August. Wheatstone LNG

Exports from Shell’s Queensland Curtis LNG 5 Ichthys LNG

rose from 0.75 Mt in August to 0.91 Mt in Pluto LNG
September, despite some quick
maintenance earlier in the month. North West Shelf LNG
4
In Western Australia and the Northern Gorgon LNG
Territory, LNG exports decreased from 4.85 Darwin LNG
Mt to 4.35 Mt.
3 Australia Pacific LNG
The Inpex-operated Ichthys LNG facility is
undergoing unplanned maintenance, causing Queensland Curtis LNG
exports to dip from 0.63 Mt in August to GLNG
2
0.37 Mt in September. The majority of the
impact was on Train 2, whose maintenance 2023 Average
has extended into October. 2024 Average
1
Woodside Energy’s Pluto LNG saw a dip in
exports to 0.34 Mt in September, down from
0.47 Mt in August.
0

Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution; Argus

9
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – LNG exports: Russia

Russian LNG exports remain strong with Sakhalin 2 LNG performing exceedingly well
In September, Russian LNG exports remained Russia LNG exports by plant
relatively stable at 2.81 Mt, compared to 2.82 Million tonnes (Mt) of LNG
Mt in August, still above the 2023 monthly
average of 2.65 Mt. 3.5 2023 2024
Exports continued to recover from the
Sakhalin 2 LNG facility following the
conclusion of maintenance in prior months.
3
Exports increased from 0.82 Mt in August to
0.95 Mt in September, bringing them above
the 2023 monthly average of 0.84 Mt and the
2024 monthly average of 0.79 Mt. 2.5
Meanwhile, Yamal LNG exports remained
stable at 1.73 Mt in September, slightly up
from 1.72 Mt in August. Vysotsk LNG
2
Additionally, the Northern Sea route remains Portovaya LNG
open with 13 voyages completed in
September, bringing the total number to 25. Sakhalin 2
1.5
Rystad Energy is still evaluating the impact of
Yamal LNG
a reported ‘shadow fleet’ moving cargoes
from the recently commissioned but 2023 Average
sanctioned Arctic LNG 2. We continue to 1
monitor the market to see if any potential 2024 Average
buyer is willing to accept these sanctioned
cargoes. If so, we will add these volumes to
our report and export database. Russian 0.5
purveyors of Arctic LNG 2 cargoes are
understood to be engaging buyers in Asia,
however, no buyers have been found as of the
time of writing. 0

Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution; Argus

10
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
 LNG imports:
Market review – LNG imports Europe

European LNG imports rebound by 8%, filling the pipeline maintenance gap
Europe LNG imports by origin
In September, LNG imports into Europe rose Million tonnes (Mt)
7.9% compared to August, totaling 6.81 Mt.
However, this figure was 7.1% lower than the 12 US
imports recorded in September 2023. US Qatar
10 Russia
deliveries rose 6.3%. reaching 2.86 Mt and
accounting for 42% of total European Algeria
8 Angola
imports, one percentage point down from
August. The second largest contributor to the Trinidad & Tobago
6
European LNG portfolio in September was Cameroon
Russia, which, in the absence of an effective 4 Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
sanction regime, shows a 16.4% month-on-
2 Mozambique
month and a 44.6% year-on-year increase of
Nigeria
deliveries to 1.26 Mt. At the same time, we
0 Norway
record the highest values of Russian LNG
Oman
absorbed in East Asia this month (1.84 Mt),
Peru
following the opening of the Northern Sea
Others
Route in late August. Meanwhile, Qatari
deliveries rose 17.8% to 0.89 Mt, although Europe LNG imports by destination
remain 27% below their average for 2023. Million tonnes (Mt)
Due to limited storage capacity (1 Bcm), the 12 Belgium
onset of the heating season led to a 294% Croatia
increase in LNG deliveries to the UK, totaling 10 Denmark
0.55 Mt in September. Imports into Belgium Finland
slightly rebounded in September, rising 31.2% 8 France
to 0.29 Mt. However, volumes into Belgium Germany
remain far below their 2023 monthly average 6 Greece
of 0.86 Mt. Imports further increased for Italy
France and Spain, rising 18.3% and 20.9%, Lithuania
4
respectively, to 1.27 Mt for both countries. In Malta
contrast, German LNG imports in September
2 Netherlands
fell by 11.2% MoM to 0.31 Mt, bringing the
Norway
utilization of regasification capacity down to a
Poland
rate of 16.6%. 0
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution UK
11
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
Market review – LNG imports: Asia

Asia September LNG import restored growth momentum

In September, Asian LNG imports grew 15.1% Asia LNG imports by destination
YoY and 4.9% MoM to reach 24.6 Mt. China’s Million tonnes (Mt)
imports rose 34.4% YoY and 12.1% MoM to
30 China Japan South Korea Taiwan (China) India Thailand Others
7.4 Mt, compared to August’s growth of only
3.7% YoY. Some of the cargoes delivered in 25
September were bought when China spot LNG
delivered ex-ship prices edged lower from $12 20
per MMBtu in June to $11.5 per MMBtu in
July. Chinese companies typically increase 15
LNG imports from September to prepare for 10
the coming winter heating season.
Meanwhile, China’s industrial activity 5
remained tepid in September, with the
manufacturing PMI still in contraction 0
territory.
Taiwan (China) imports maintained double-
digit growth, rising from 12.4% YoY in August
to 16.9% YoY in September. The market’s Asia LNG imports by origin
regasification utilization also remained at a Million tonnes (Mt)
high level, exceeding nameplate capacity of
16.5 Mtpa 30 Australia Qatar Malaysia United States Russia Indonesia Others

Flows to Japan rose 8.6% YoY and 10.2% MoM 25

to 6.2 Mt in September, while South Korea’s
imports grew 12% YoY to 3.4 Mt but fell 2.3% 20
MoM.
15
With heatwaves in Southeast Asia and South
Asia receding, flows to Thailand in 10
September fell 17.2% YoY and 7.7% MoM to
0.9 Mt. Flows to India fell 2.5% YoY to 2 Mt. 5

From a supply perspective, Australia drove 0

most of the growth in LNG flows to Asia. It
sent 7.2 Mt in September, up 1.33 Mt YoY and
0.68 Mt MoM. US flows also rose noticeably,
up 0.95 Mt YoY and 0.89 Mt MoM to 3.48 Mt.

Source: Rystad Energy LNG Trade Solution

12 Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024

Market outlook
Market outlook –– Short-term
Short-termprice
price outlook
outlook

Bullish premonitions for winter

With weak demand in Asia and the latest International natural gas prices (historical and forward curves)*
volatility in the TTF driven by escalations in USD per million British thermal units (MMBtu)
the Middle East, the arbitrage for marginal
US cargoes to Asia has now closed, shifting 90 C2G Band
price-making power back to Europe. 80 HH
Manufacturing indices in Europe and China HH Fwd
70 TTF
continue to show contractions, and recent
economic support measures—such as
60 TTF Fwd
interest rate cuts and significant Chinese 50 Asia spot
stimulus—will likely take months before any 40 Asia spot Fwd
potential impact is felt in the broader Asia oil-indexed
30 Asia oil-indexed Fwd
economy, and ultimately, gas demand.
Additionally, the upcoming start-up of 20
Plaquemines LNG and Greater Tortue 10
Ahmeyim in West Africa will increase supply 0
availability this winter.

However, the market is experiencing bullish

signs for winter considering sporadic cold
snaps in Europe. The NOAA’s September- US spot LNG arbitrage signal Freight rates from US Gulf Coast to Asia and Europe
issued ENSO probabilities now suggest a 77% USD per million British thermal units (MMBtu) USD per million British thermal units (MMBtu)
chance of a La-Nina from December to (TTF – US SRMC, Asia spot – US SRMC)
45 8
January, up from 67% in August. Additional EU
demand may also arise from Egypt due to 40 7
East Asia
insufficient production and Brazil due to 35 EU 6
drought conditions. However, the market’s 30 5
ability to absorb high prices continues to be
25 4
limited.
20
3
Despite the possibility of a colder winter 15 East Asia
than last year, the lack of a steep winter 2
10
contango means the market is yet to see an 1
5
upward climb in freight rates. 0
0

*Historical TTF and Henry Hub prices correspond to the front-month contract. Forward prices are from 30 September 2024. Forward prices are the monthly average.
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Refinitiv; Bloomberg

13
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
LNG market outlook – Summary of revisions

Chinese LNG demand pushes 2035 supply gap to over 140 Mtpa
Our new LNG demand outlook features Global LNG demand revisions by region and supply
lower demand in the mid-term (2024-2029) Million tonnes
due to slower supply additions and ongoing
challenges to demand from the gas-intensive 800
manufacturing sector. Post-2030 demand
has been revised up due to lower pipeline
gas imports into China.
700
Increases: Higher LNG demand is anticipated
in China during the 2030s due to delays in 143 Mtpa
the Central Asia Line D and Power of Siberia 600
2. Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to
see growing power demand but insufficient
production near key demand centers. In Others
Colombia, declining domestic production is 500
likely to drive higher LNG demand. New Africa
Zealand could see an increase of up to 1
Mtpa in the 2030s due to ongoing gas Middle East
shortages and surging electricity prices from
400
Americas
sharply declining domestic production. A
similar situation may arise in Australia in Europe
future revisions. 300
South Asia
Decreases: In China, demand is expected to
decline from 2024 to 2030 due to an South East Asia
economic slowdown and the faster ramp-up 200
of Power of Siberia 1. Europe is likely to see
East Asia
lower imports as gas demand declines amid
the accelerated deployment of renewables.
Bangladesh may also experience lower
100
imports due to economic uncertainty
following a regime change and affordability
concerns, which is also a factor for lower 0
demand in Pakistan as well.

Source: Rystad Energy GasMarketCube

14
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
 LNG market outlook – Liquefaction
LNG projectsprojects

Liquefaction projects to watch in 2024/2025* Capacity Cost of supply DES

Liquefaction project Start date Status Country Operator (Mtpa) to Asia (USD per MMBtu)

Greater Tortue/Ahmeyim FLNG 1Q 2025 Undergoing cooldown Senegal/Mauritania BP 2.5 5.2

Arctic LNG-2 T1 Unclear Has commenced production using a dark fleet Russia Arctic LNG 2 JV 6.6 3.9
Start-ups

Plaquemines LNG 4Q 2024 Gas intake observed since end-July US Venture Global 10.0 8.5

Corpus Christi Stage III 1Q 2025 Targeting first LNG in 2024 US Cheniere Energy 10.0 8.5

LNG Canada 2Q 2025 >95% complete; feedgas intake commenced Canada Shell 14.0 8.7
Requested 3-year extension to complete
Golden Pass 4Q 2025 US Golden Pass LNG 18.0 8.4
construction
Capacity Cost of supply DES
Liquefaction project FID year Status Country Operator (Mtpa) to Asia (USD per MMBtu)
FID delayed due to EPC constraints, cost
Papua LNG 2026 Papua New Guinea ExxonMobil 4.0 8.4
increases, and financing delays
Cameron expansion 2027 Sempra is prioritizing Port Arthur Phase 2 US Sempra Energy 6.8 9.7

Mexico Pacific 2025 Reconfigured to modular design Mexico Mexico Pacific Ltd 14.1 9.1
FERC approval overturned for
Rio Grande Phase 1 2023 US NextDecade 17.6 10.5
not including supplemental EIS
Qatar NFE South 2023 International partners confirmed Qatar QatarEnergy 15.6 4.2
Delayed; needs new approval
Delfin FLNG 1 2026 US Delfin Midstream 3.3 10
Pre-FID and recent FID

from US MARAD
Calcasieu Pass 2 Phase 1 2025 FERC approval in Jun 2024 US Venture Global 10.0 10.5
Ruwais LNG 2024 Announced FID on 13 June UAE Adnoc 9.6 6.8
Cedar FLNG 2024 Announced FID on 26 June Canada Pembina 3.0 9.8
Lake Charles 2028 Selected KBR/Technip for EPC US Energy Transfer 17.0 10

Commonwealth 2026 Signed 2 Mtpa HoA with Glencore US Commonwealth LNG 8.4 9.7
$4.3B EPC awarded to Bechtel; FERC approval 5.4
Rio Grande Train 4 2025 US NextDecade 10.6
overturned for not including supplemental EIS
Marsa LNG 2024 FID announced in April 2024 Oman Total Energies 1.0 6.8
Driftwood LNG Phase 1 2027 Actively discussing selldowns US Woodside 11.0 10.5
Genting FLNG 2024 EPC contract awarded to Wison Indonesia Genting Berhad 1.2 8.1
*Cost of supply delivered ex-ship (DES) is the forward breakeven at a 10% discount rate. Source: Rystad Energy GasMarketCube

15
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
LNG
LNG market
market outlook
outlook –– Regasification
Regasification

China witnesses significant regasification capacity additions, ~25 Mtpa in YTD 2024​
China regasification startups in 2024, as of end-September

Tianjin PipeChina LNG 2 expansion (6 Mtpa)

• Sep 2024

Tianjin Nangang LNG 2 (2.04 Mtpa)

• Jun 2024

Shandong Qingdao LNG 3 (4 Mtpa)

• Jan 2024

Zhangzhou LNG 1 (3 Mtpa)

• May 2024

Chaozhou Huaying LNG 1 (6 Mtpa)

• Sep 2024

Huizhou LNG 1 (4 Mtpa)

• Aug 2024

Source: Rystad Energy GasMarketCube

16 Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024

LNG market outlook – Shipping

More orders are on the way

As of September, the trading carrier Orderbook by charterer*
orderbook consisted of 375 vessels, including
Number of vessels
the Arctic LNG 2 fleet. After a lull in orders
during June and August, the orderbook saw 120
the addition of eight carriers: six 271,000
cubic meter QC-max vessels for Qatar Energy
at Hudong Zhonghua and two carriers for
Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation at
Dalian shipyard. This brings Qatar Energy’s
Unknown
100
newbuild count to 128 vessels, accounting Notional yard capacity in South Korea and China Others
for 34% of the orderbook, including 24 QC-
max vessels. Public announcements suggest Venture Global
a further 20 vessels are under consideration,
but we understand some owners are holding 80 Total
back from new orders until newbuild prices JERA
decrease significantly from the current $260
million levels. However, continued labor ENN
constraints are expected to limit this decline
and $200 million price levels are not on the 60 Sinopec
horizon.
Shell
Current LNG shipping market fundamentals
suggest oversupply through 2026, given CNOOC
limited new volumes entering the market
40 Petronas
due to multiple start-up delays.
The default delivery slots at South Korean Adnoc LNG JV
yards are still 2028, although earlier Adnoc
deliveries may be possible through swaps.
20 ExxonMobil
The role of FLNG infrastructure has also
ramped up in recent months, with four Qatar Energy
newbuild FLNGs and three FSRUs under
construction and several under conversion.
The smaller size, rapid deployment, 0
flexibility, and de-risked construction at a
shipyard will continue to drive the popularity 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
of floating solutions.
*Includes trading carriers only; chart includes Arctic LNG 2 fleet. Source: Rystad Energy GasMarketCube

17
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024
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18
Gas and LNG Market Condensed Report – October 2024