Mobile Economy MENA 2024
Mobile Economy MENA 2024
Economy
Middle East
& North Africa
2024
The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobile
ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation
foundational to positive business environments and
societal change. Our vision is to unlock the full power of
connectivity so that people, industry and society thrive.
Representing mobile operators and organisations across
the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries, the GSMA
delivers for its members across three broad pillars:
Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions,
and Outreach. This activity includes advancing policy,
tackling today’s biggest societal challenges, underpinning
the technology and interoperability that make mobile
work, and providing the world’s largest platform to
convene the mobile ecosystem at the MWC and M360
series of events.
www.gsmaintelligence.com
1. People covered by a mobile broadband network but do not yet subscribe to a mobile internet service
Executive summary 2 / 43
Key trends shaping
the mobile ecosystem
Executive summary 3 / 43
Momentum builds behind aerial Growing investments and use cases
connectivity with generative AI
The deserts and mountain ranges in several Operators in the region are increasingly adopting
countries in MENA mean that aerial connectivity generative AI (genAI) across operational and
will play an important role in realising universal business areas, driving internal transformation
connectivity, especially for communities in and new business opportunities. GenAI is being
remote and sparsely populated areas. While used to enhance customer service through
there has historically been significant interest chatbots, virtual assistants and personalised
in aerial solutions in the region, the emergence marketing; at the same time, it is being used to
of low Earth orbit (LEO) and high-altitude improve network performance via predictive
platform station (HAPS) solutions have increased maintenance and automated solutions. Many
the interest in satellites and non-terrestrial strategic collaborations are underway to help
networks (NTNs). This has ushered in a new operators maximise the value of this new
era of collaboration between telecoms and technology. Investments in AI-supporting
satellite operators for solutions spanning several infrastructure are growing, with telecoms
use cases, including remote area connectivity, operators expanding data centres to fuel AI
disaster response and maritime services. research and development, particularly in the
GCC region. However, data privacy concerns and
the shortage of skilled AI professionals, among
other challenges, remain key barriers to AI
adoption.
Executive summary 4 / 43
Policies for success
The mobile industry in MENA has shown resilience Meanwhile, decisions achieved at the World
in the face of a myriad of macroeconomic Radiocommunication Conference 2023
challenges, such as hyperinflation and international (WRC-23) will have a major impact on the future
conflicts. At the same time, operators have of mid-band spectrum. Final harmonisation of the
remained committed to investing in high- 3.5 GHz band (3.3–3.8 GHz) – the pioneering 5G
performance networks, including 5G, to support band – was achieved across Europe, the Middle
the digitalisation agenda of governments in the East and Africa (EMEA) and the Americas. This
region, despite slowing revenue growth rates and step will allow more countries to take advantage
tightening margins. In this context, policymakers of economies of scale in the mobile ecosystem
in the region have a role to play to sustain the and benefit from higher speeds provided by wide
continued advancement of the mobile industry. spectrum channels in this range.
In particular, there is a case for policymakers in
The conference also identified 6 GHz (6.425–7.125
the region to address the widening investment
GHz) for mobile use by countries in every region
gap for telecoms infrastructure, rising taxes and
– EMEA, CIS, the Americas and Asia Pacific – and
regulatory fees and costly quality-of-service (QoS)
global, harmonised conditions for its use have
regulations, in addition to encouraging voluntary
been agreed in the ITU’s Radio Regulations. The
infrastructure sharing to ease the cost burden of
identification brings together billions of people
network operations.
into a harmonised 6 GHz mobile footprint. It also
serves as a critical developmental trigger for
manufacturers of the 6 GHz equipment ecosystem.
Executive summary 5 / 43
The Mobile Economy
Middle East & North Africa
Unique Mobile
mobile internet
subscribers users
2023
427m
64% penetration rate*
2023
327m
49% penetration rate*
2030
517m
71% penetration rate*
2030
422m
58% penetration rate*
CAGR
2023-2030 2.4% CAGR
2023-2030 3.2%
*Percentage of population *Percentage of population
connections
(excluding licensed cellular IoT)
2023
60%
2023
716m
108% penetration rate*
2030
35%
2030
874m 5G Percentage of connections
(excluding licensed cellular IoT)
4.3%
120% penetration rate*
2023
2.5%
50%
CAGR
2023-2030
2030
*Percentage of population
Smartphones Licensed
Percentage of connections
cellular
IoT connections
2023
81%
2030
90% 2023
48m
Operator
revenues and
2030
78m
investment
Mobile's
2023
$66bn
Total revenues
contribution
to GDP
2030
$88bn
Total revenues
2023
$310bn
5.5% of GDP
$97bn $360bn
Operator capex
for the period
2030
2023–2030:
Public Employment
funding
500k jobs
2023
2023
2+6+6626K 0+5+95K
GCC Arab states Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
2% 5% 2023
26% 6% 78%
2030
84%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
95% 2023
88%
66% 2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 91%
14+32+540K 2+14+4341K
North Africa Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
14% 2% 2023
14% 71%
2030
32% 77%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
41% 43% 84%
54% 2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 90%
47+37+160K 43+22+2510K
Other Arab states Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
10% 2023
16% 47% 43% 36%
2030
44%
25%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
2023
54%
37% 22% 2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 81%
19+41+400K 2+17+6813K
Levant Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
<1% 2% 2023
19% 13% 50%
17%
2030
63%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
41% 68% 2023
40% 87%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 93%
Executive summary 8 / 43
Subscriber and technology
trends for key markets
11+10+772K 1+3+2967K
Iran Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
1% 3% 2023
2% 11%
58%
67% 2030
10%
68%
29%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
77% 75%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 87%
1+2+6730K 0+10+90K
Israel Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
1% 2% 10% 2023
30% 68%
2030
75%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
67% 90% 90%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 94%
4+1+950K 0+32+68K
Türkiye Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
4% >1%
2023
1.4% 73%
68%
2030
32%
80%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
95% 89%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 94%
Executive summary 9 / 43
01
The mobile industry
in numbers
Almost half of the By the end of 2023, 327 million people in MENA
(49% of the population) subscribed to a mobile
population in MENA
service – an increase of 160 million people since
2015. Although the usage gap remains substantial,
now subscribe to
it has narrowed by 2% since 2020. This has been
driven by the widespread availability of affordable
mobile internet
data plans and some of the lowest-cost internet-
enabled handsets in the region.
Figure 1
Usage gap
MENA: mobile internet connectivity Connected
30%
44% 49%
23%
7% 4%
2015 2020 2023
Figure 2
MENA: mobile adoption by technology
Percentage of total connections
70%
60%
50% 5G 50%
40%
4G 35%
30%
20%
10% 3G 10%
2G 5%
0%
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
be 439 million 5G
on deploying 5G SA networks while also preparing
for 5G-Advanced. Smart cities present a significant
connections in
opportunity for operators, with 5G positioned as
the backbone for diverse applications. Recent
MENA
agreements, such as the collaboration between
Orange and the King Abdullah Financial District
Development and Management Company in
Riyadh, underscore the opportunity for mobile
operators to expand their role in the smart city
ecosystem.
Figure 3
2024–2030 increase
5G adoption in 2030 2023
Percentage of total connections
5G connections
(2030)
and 2030
with activities such as gaming, video streaming,
e-commerce and social networking.
Figure 4
MENA: mobile data traffic per connection
GB per month
connections in
and Iran together accounting for more than
half of these. IoT connections will be boosted
double between
connectivity will enable new use cases. To address
the diverse needs of IoT use cases, operators will
leverage a combination of connectivity options.
2023 and 2030 This will help ensure optimised performance across
different applications.
Figure 5
Rest of MENA
MENA: number of licensed cellular IoT connections
Türkiye
Million Iran
GCC countries
90
80
70
29%
60
50
30%
40
30
22%
20
10
20%
revenues in MENA
Mobile capex to revenue in the region was 17%
at the end of 2022, likely marking the peak of
Figure 6
Revenue
MENA: mobile revenue and capex to revenue
Capex to revenue (%)
Billion
18%
$100
17%
16%
$90 16% 16% 15%
14%
$80 14%
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
economic value to
from the productivity effects generated by the
use of mobile services across the economy
Figure 7
MENA: total economic contribution of mobile, 2023
Billion, percentage of 2023 GDP
$220 $310
3.9%
Mobile ecosystem
5.5%
$20
$10
$10 0.3%
$50 0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
economic
continued expansion of the mobile ecosystem
and verticals increasingly benefiting from the
contribution in MENA
improvements in productivity and efficiency
brought about by the take-up of mobile services.
Figure 8
MENA: economic impact of mobile
Billion
$360
$310
2023 2030
Source: GSMA Intelligence
The mobile ecosystem Mobile operators and the wider mobile ecosystem
provided direct employment to more than
in MENA supported
500,000 people in MENA in 2023. In addition,
economic activity in the ecosystem generated
jobs in 2023
supported.
Figure 9
MENA: employment impact of the mobile industry, 2023
Jobs (million)
0.7
1.3
0.5
contribution of the
public sector, with more than $20 billion raised
through taxes. The largest contribution came from
mobile ecosystem in
services VAT, sales taxes and excise duties, which
generated $10 billion, followed by handset VAT,
MENA reached
sales taxes, excise and customs duties at $5 billion.
Figure 10
MENA: fiscal contribution of the mobile ecosystem, 2023
Billion
$3
$3
$5
$20
$10
MENA economy in
benefit will materialise over the second half of the
decade to 2030. Some countries are in the early
2030
stages of deployment – the 5G economic benefits
will increase as the technology starts to achieve
scale and widespread adoption.
Figure 11 Other
MENA: annual 5G contribution by industry Construction and real estate
Finance
Billion
Information and communication
Services
Public administration
Manufacturing
$60
$50
11%
4%
$40 8%
5%
5%
$30 11%
$20
56%
$10
$0
Enhanced integration
with drone resources 4% 4%
Improved device
positioning accuracy 1% 2%
Meanwhile, 3GPP Release 17 introduced the 5G RedCap is an important enabler for mid-tier
RedCap user equipment category for energy- and cellular IoT applications; it serves as a platform
cost-efficient 5G IoT connectivity (also known for the successful migration of IoT applications
as 5G NR-Light). In comparison to 5G enhanced to 5G networks in order to take advantage of
mobile broadband (eMBB) devices that can the benefits of 5G beyond just speed. A range
deliver gigabits per second throughput in both the of use cases will benefit from RedCap, notably
downlink and uplink, RedCap devices efficiently wearables, video monitoring and telematics. For
support 150 Mbps and 50 Mbps in the downlink example, most wearables support medium data
and uplink, respectively. The reduced complexity rates in small form factors with relatively low
of RedCap devices contributes to cost efficiency, power consumption, which is not achievable with
a smaller device footprint and longer battery life eMBB or massive machine-type communications
due to lower power consumption. (mMTC). Also, many video applications for
surveillance don’t require eMBB’s high data
rates and so can benefit from the lower power
consumption achievable with 5G RedCap.
5G RedCap is an important
enabler for mid-tier
cellular IoT applications,
serving as a platform for
the successful migration
of IoT applications to 5G
networks in order to take
advantage of the benefits
of 5G beyond just speed
SIM Swap Obtains information on any recent Fraud prevention in banking; fraud
SIM pairing change related to the prevention for password reset
user’s account
Figure 14 China
Regional breakdown of operator participation in Europe
the GSMA Open Gateway South and Southeast Asia
Latin America
Percentage of operators
<1% Sub-Saharan Africa
MENA
4% North America
5% Northeast Asia (excluding China)
5% Oceania
31%
5%
7%
18%
24%
2.3
Satellite: momentum builds behind aerial
connectivity
Telecoms networks remain the primary form of deliver connectivity in maritime, remote and polar
connectivity, supported by the wide area coverage areas, where deploying conventional terrestrial
of wireless networks and the mass production networks could be costly and challenging.
and adoption of mobile devices. In recent years,
The 3GPP has laid the foundation for satellite-
however, technological advances in various
based connectivity through standardisation to
satellite and other NTNs, such as unmanned aerial
extend the reach of 5G to regions lacking terrestrial
vehicles (UAVs), have helped to overcome several
infrastructure. Four broad use cases have been
limitations associated with aerial connectivity.
identified:
This has resulted in significant performance
improvements, lower deployment costs and more • Service continuity: For coverage where it is
commercially viable business models for satellite not feasible with terrestrial networks, such as
and NTN-based connectivity solutions. maritime or remote areas.
LEO satellite and HAPS providers have attracted • Service ubiquity: For mission-critical
much attention on the back of significant communications, such as for disaster relief during
investments and technical breakthroughs outage of terrestrial networks.
that improve the business case for delivering
connectivity at scale. A key selling point for aerial • Service scalability: For offloading traffic from
connectivity solutions is the potential to provide terrestrial networks to NTNs for better system
ubiquitous coverage all over the globe. Telecoms efficiency.
networks now cover more than 95% of the world's • Backhaul services: For transport for sites with
population but less than 45% of the world's weak or no backhaul capacity.
landmass. Satellites and NTNs are well suited to
5. “FutureNow Hackathon With Manipal University, e& enterprise, and Vonage”, Vonage, November 2022
6. “e& UAE adopts TM Forum and-Camara based Open APIs”, e&, June 2024
Transition to renewables
The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy For example, Orange has deployed three solar
sources is key for a zero-carbon business. farms in Jordan, supplying around 70% of the
Countries with few or no natural energy resources electricity needs of its subsidiary in the country.
are more exposed to global fluctuations in energy In Egypt, the operator has converted hundreds
prices, so local operators have every reason to of sites to work with hybrid energy by installing
be ambitious with renewables. Turkcell provides modern generators that reduce the use of diesel
a strong example, having already committed to while also working on charging high-efficiency
meeting its electricity demand from renewables lithium batteries. This means, the number of
by 2030. The operator announced plans in August conventional generators has decreased by
2023 to invest $240 million in green energy more than 55%. Other MENA operators are also
projects. exploring hybrid solutions. Zain recently became
the first operator in Bahrain to implement a
Many parts of the MENA region enjoy abundant
renewable power source at one its sites, using a
sunshine, making solar power a particularly
hybrid solution combining generators, batteries
promising option for network operators. They can
and solar panels. The solution reduces CO2
deploy solar panels at their sites, storing excess
emissions by more than 15%.
electricity in batteries, or build large-scale solar
farms.
10. Mobile Net Zero: State of the Industry on Climate Action 2023, GSMA, 2023
Figure 13
Mobile's impact on the SDGs in MENA
11. 2024 Mobile Industry Impact Report: Sustainable Development Goals, GSMA
4.1
Measures to ensure industry sustainability
The challenges faced by the mobile industry are pertinent issues that require urgent attention from
multi-faceted. While there is no one-sized-fits-all policymakers in the region, some of which are
approach to tackling these challenges, there are highlighted below.
Investment gap
Across MENA, the rollout of 5G is driving an to meet ambitious national and regional digital
increase in data traffic. However, the ability policy targets. European authorities are currently
of operators to expand network capacity gauging the ‘fair share’ proposal to help close
and coverage is often hindered by regulatory the investment gap. Meanwhile, in South Korea,
constraints, market structures and excessive tax regulatory pressure has led to commercial
burdens. This has created an ‘investment gap’, agreements on contributions to network costs
whereby market conditions for private investment between a large traffic generator and a telecoms
in telecoms networks are not favourable enough operator.
Taxation
Faced with fiscal challenges, some governments The mobile sector is committed to paying taxes
in MENA have mobilised resources locally through in the countries where it operates to support the
increased taxation to meet their development government's development objectives. However,
objectives. As a result, the sector is taxed the industry calls for more structured taxation
disproportionately higher than others, despite regimes that do not impact the affordability
its positive externalities across various sectors. of services to consumers and investment in
These include increased value from agricultural the industry. To this end, policymakers should
resources, improved access to global value chains, eliminate or decrease industry-specific excise
enhancements to education and healthcare taxes applied to mobile services, and remove
provision, reductions in transaction costs for sector-specific taxes/fees on mobile operators,
economic and public service activities, improved particularly those imposed on operators’ revenues
efficiency of government services, transparency irrespective of profitability, to ensure fair treatment
and good governance. Additionally, sector-specific of the sector and encourage investment in mobile
taxes increase the cost of broadband access and infrastructure.
usage, making digital devices and services less
accessible, lowering economic growth.
Infrastructure sharing
With the adoption of 5G, mobile data traffic is The Recommendation indicates that there is
expected to grow threefold in MENA between a potential saving of up to 30% with passive
2023 and 2030. Operators will have to increase infrastructure sharing and up to 50–60% for active
their number of sites, particularly in urban areas, infrastructure sharing.
to cope with rising data demand. Moreover, the
The network investment required to roll out 5G is
growing popularity of 5G FWA in countries such
driving operators to reconsider their approaches
as Oman and Saudi Arabia adds further impetus to
to mobile tower ownership. In recent years
densifying mobile networks. Even in areas where
there has been a wave of activity among mobile
network densification is not required, existing
operators, tower companies and investment funds.
sites must be upgraded to cope with rising data
For operators, tower divestments boost liquidity
traffic levels. For example, massive multiple-input
and free up cash to invest in other parts of the
multiple-output (MIMO) antennas will be needed to
business. Recognising this opportunity, there is a
optimise 5G capacity and throughput.
need for policymakers to encourage and expedite
One policy measure that has helped to reduce approvals for voluntary infrastructure sharing
the prices of telecoms services is the sharing of to ease the burden of network expansion and
infrastructure. Recommendation ITU-T D.264 maintenance costs on operators.
proposes a set of possible methods to help
telecommunications providers save costs and
enhance efficiency through the shared use of
the telecommunications infrastructure, including
passive and active infrastructure sharing.