P-ISSN 2664-0422 Pakistan Social Sciences Review April-June 2024, Vol. 8, No.
2 (S)
O-ISSN 2664-0430 https://doi.org/10.35484/pssr.2024(8-II-S)31 [354-362]
RESEARCH PAPER
Climate Change: Threats to Agricultural Sustainability in Pakistan
1 Maliha Aitzaz, 2Dr. Mustansar Aatizaz* and 3 Ghazanfar Aatzaz
1. Lecturer, Department of International Relations, Lahore College Women University, Lahore,
Punjab, Pakistan.
2. Lecturer, Department of Statistics Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
3. Deputy Director, Core Statistics Department, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
*Corresponding Author: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
This paper explores to evaluate how Pakistan's agriculture is affected by climate change
and to find techniques to mitigate and adapt to the changes. Pakistan's agriculture
industry is drastically affected by climate change. The continuous inclination of
temperature, shifting weather patterns, and more frequent climate change events are
remarkably reducing crop yields, compromising food security and posing serious threats
to rural livelihood. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on agricultural
output, water resources, and controlling pests, this study sought farmers in liable areas,
reviewed a variety of literature in detail, and examined climate data. The paper also
founds critical declines in crop yields, changes in developing seasons, and expanded
irritation and sickness pressure. Farmers were observed using more groundwater, which
resulted in a shortage of water and less fertile land. Pakistan needs to prioritize climate-
resilient agricultural techniques, raise farmer awareness and capacity building, improve
water management, and encourage crop variety to ensure agricultural sustainability.
Agriculture Adaptation, Climate Trends, Farming, Policy Objectives,
KEYWORDS Sustainable Practices
Introduction:
The effects of climate change have become increasingly apparent over the past
decades (Patt and Schröter, 2008). Climate change refers to the significant and long
lasting alterations to the earth’s climate pattern over an extended period of time. It
includes changes in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns and other aspects of
weather on a global scale. Ozone harming substance discharges (GHG) from the broad
utilization of non-renewable energy sources is probably the main source because of its
impact on holding the heat in upper climate (Afzal, et. al., 2020). This climb in the
worldwide high temperature enhances the dangerous atmospheric deviation peculiarity
and compels the whole world to sense the environmental impact.
Climate change projections suggest a more variable climate with higher
vulnerabilities in lower income countries (Easterling et al., 2000, McCarthy, 2001).
Pakistan is a horticulture-based country, giving work to right around 25 million
individuals. Like other developing countries, Pakistan seems particularly defenseless
against the rapidly changing environment and has been positioned as the fifth most weak
country on the planet to environmental change, even though Pakistan produces less than
1% of the world’s carbon footprint. Owing to the climbing temperatures, Pakistan
encountered a prominent change in rainstorm design and expanded event of cyclones
throughout recent years with effects on the farming area. Like Pakistan expands its
populace and corresponding development, these environmental alteration effects will
leave crumbling impacts on the already overburdened economy. In addition, Pakistan is
Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June2024, Vol. 8, No. 2 (S)
the sixth most elevated populated country on the planet with a yearly populace
increment of around 2%.
Right now, basically all-arable land in the Pakistan is a work in progress as the
nation endeavors to encounter the reasonable food safety edge for the quickly developing
populace. Environmental change has expanded temperatures bringing about unexpected
changes in precipitation designs, which are firmly connected to agrarian creation and
water assets. Precipitation power has changed radically as confirmed by extreme dry
season and crushing floods that harm rich grounds along with foundation. Comparable
most nations subject to the arable food creation in environments, Pakistan requirements
to create and embrace environment savvy crops to accomplish food security. Essentially,
a top strategy should carry out the environmental change moderation systems (zahid
and rasul,2011).
Environmental change is influencing precipitation and shapes the fact that how
much yearly precipitation will be. Several parts of the nation are getting under 250 mm
precipitation for every year that requires further upgrade of cultivating and water system
foundation including water system channels, trenches, and dams for water capacity.
Water protection estimates should be carried out as well as utilizing the best innovations
to store water. Domesticated animals contribute around 41% of the ozone depleting
substances outflow in Pakistan. This fact proposes that new and high level cautions to be
carried out by taking care of advancements, changes in creature feed arrangement, better
and more proficient domesticated animals breeds, further developed fertilizer the
executives rehearses, and the administration of field and munching area will be favorable
in upgrading the farming proficiency as well as growing the potential soil carbon sink
(syed et al., 2022).
Pakistan is among the most pompous regions connected with the variety in
climatic occasions. Floods and dry spells are the first reason for monetary and social
dangers for the people among different normal dangers to which individuals are
uncovered and contribute heightening to mortalities. Especially, in non-industrial
nations, rustic occupants are frequently powerless to floods attributable to the little
versatile capacity and assets. The strength and brutality of flood occasions in emerging
nations are for the most part connected with the natural and climatic vacillations. In the
event that the proficient recognizable proof of the impacts of varieties in climatic
circumstances on cultivating frameworks isn't completed expertly, it could especially
and unfavorably influence the food efficiency and its wellbeing and furthermore it very
well may be an obstacle in the efforts for declining of neediness and supportable turn of
events. Pakistan is an agrarian nation, where in general contribution of farming area in
Gross domestic product is 21.9% and straightforwardly or by implication utilizes 45% of
the nation's all out workforce, comprising of around 60% of the provincial occupants;
accordingly, any unfavorable result of climatic activities could impact their livelihoods
(fahad & wang, 2020).
Literature Review
In this century, human race is confronting a serious danger as environmental
change which has subverted the endurance of human development. In least difficult
structure, climate change is the peculiarity by which atmospheric changes happen which
leads towards shifts in the worldwide ecological and biological circles through slow but
regular cycles. Environmental change is brought about by normal as well as by men
made exercises. The poisnous gases (methane, CO2, and nitrous oxides and so on) are
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radiated by individuals through different homegrown, business, and modern exercises
(shahid & adnan,2021).
Pakistan's farming area assumes a crucial part in the nation's economy, utilizing
a critical piece of the populace and contributing considerably to Gross domestic product.
Notwithstanding, the area faces various difficulties, chief among them being the effect of
environmental change. Lately, Pakistan has encountered a scope of environment related
peculiarities, including whimsical rainstorm, frosty softening, and outrageous climate
occasions, all of which have significant ramifications for farming. Agribusiness is one of
the principal environment extreme financial sections that is impacted both decidedly and
adversely by environmental change. Horticulture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy.
It contributes 21% to the Gross domestic product of the state. Almost 67% of the populace
is connected straightforwardly or in a roundabout way with horticulture. Agriculture is
the vocation of a larger part of rural networks, however it is ordered as an unsafe
occupation. Varieties in temperature or precipitation produce significant variety in crop
result and yields. It is advantageous to specify that Pakistan offers short of what one
percent of worldwide ozone harming substance (GHGs) emanations, however it is one
of the most presented to environmental change influences. Moreover, Pakistan has an
inadequate specialized and monetary ability to change in accordance with these
unfavorable effects. Because of its agrarian economy, environmental change is turning
into a difficult issue. Pakistan has the world's biggest water system framework and the
significant water hotspot for it is snow and frosty liquefy. Environmental change isn't
just undermining the water system framework because of quick dissolving ice sheets, yet
additionally expands the gamble of floods, dry seasons, avalanches, power deficiencies,
and torrential slides. It is a consistently mounting worry with limitless significance
inferable from its articulated, extensive financial impacts. Variety in temperature and
precipitation designs is an exceptionally terrifying issue in the yield area, particularly the
parched zone (Baig &straqadine, 2021). Environmental change represents a huge danger
to rural supportability in Pakistan, compromising the country's food security and the
vocations of millions of ranchers (Hussain et al., 2020). Pakistan's agrarian area is
profoundly defenseless against environmental change because of its reliance on
precipitation, restricted water system foundation, and lacking environment variation
measures (Qureshi and Ashraf, 2019). Climbing temperatures, adjusted precipitation
designs, and expanded recurrence of outrageous climate occasions are projected to
deteriorate in the next few decades, further worsening the difficulties faced by Pakistani
ranchers (Ahmed et al., 2019).
Farming is the foundation of Pakistan's economy, utilizing almost 40% of the
workforce and contributing essentially to Gross domestic product (World Bank, 2020). In
any case, environmental change is supposed to decrease crop yields, adjust developing
seasons, and shift reasonable trimming regions, prompting huge financial misfortunes
and food uncertainty. Additionally, environmental change will likewise modify the
dissemination and predominance of yield nuisances and sicknesses, further
undermining horticultural efficiency (jatoi et al., 2023).
The effects of environmental change on Pakistani agribusiness are broad, with
ramifications for rancher jobs, food accessibility, and public safety. Subsequently, it is
fundamental to comprehend the dangers presented by environmental change to
horticultural manageability in Pakistan and investigate methodologies for relief and
variation.
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Material and Methods
In this paper, a blended technique research approach was taken on to completely
research the dangers presented by environmental change to farming maintainability in
Pakistan. This approach took into account the combination of both quantitative
information on environmental change patterns and subjective bits of knowledge into
farmer’s' points of view and transformation methodologies. The examination
configuration included a blend of essential information assortment through overviews
and meetings, alongside optional information acquired from administrative reports,
scholarly papers, and strategy records. A purposive testing strategy was utilized to
choose members addressing different partners, including ranchers, horticultural
specialists, and policymakers. Quantitative information investigation included
spellbinding insights to inspect environmental change designs and their effects on
horticultural efficiency, while subjective information was dissected utilizing topical
examination to distinguish normal subjects and examples in ranchers' transformation
rehearses. By locating information from different sources, this study pointed to give a
thorough comprehension of the difficulties faced by Pakistani farming with regards to
environmental change and to offer experiences for improving agrarian flexibility and
manageability.
Results and Discussions
The results show a clear impact of climate change on the survival of horticulture,
with rising temperatures and varied precipitation precedents causing a sharp decline in
crop yields (up to 20% in some districts). The analysis covers the wide-ranging effects of
these shifts, such as raised frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions,
polluted land, scarcity of water, and shifting seasonal patterns. The findings further
highlight the increasing effects of climate change on pests and disease pressure,
consequently weakening crop resilience. These results emphasize how important it is to
have proactive transformation processes, environmentally sound agricultural methods,
and strategy support in order to mitigate the negative consequences of environmental
change on food security and agricultural production. The results of the study highlight
the fundamentals of an organized plan to counter this existential threat.
Impacts of Climate change on Agriculture in Pakistan
Pakistan being a warm territory, overwhelmingly in danger of barometric shift
because of its placement in such geological locale where temperature increases higher
than the wide-reaching. The terrestrial is for the most part parched and semi-bone-dry
(around 60% of the zone gets under 250 mm of downpour for every annum and 24% gets
between the 250-500 mm); the waterways are fundamentally delivered by the ice sheets
of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan. Owing to the dangerous atmospheric
devation, they are lessening quickly; the economy is agrarian and hence very powerless.
If the precautions are not firmly placed, then there are huge chances that Pakistan will be
confronting step by step greater hazards of irregularity in rainstorm in coming years. It
will automatically determine how much precipitation consistently causing extraordinary
floods and broad dry seasons. Based of the above factors, Pakistan's horticultural sector,
energy security, flood security, and water security are seriously affected. (Abid et al.,
2016). In Pakistan, farming is the prime monetary area that upholds around 45% of the
nation's laborers, adds 21% to nation's Gross domestic product (GDP), and pays
practically 60% to the country sends out. An estimation, Pakistan has around 23.4 million
hectares under development, and 18.63 Mha just inundated. Water system is vital to
Pakistan with 77% of the area in Punjab flooded with lesser sums in different territories.
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Various cultivating frameworks exist including spate water system Spate water system
is a harvest water system method that comprises of redirecting occasional tempest water
from the streams, valleys, ravines, and river bottom by gravity onto agricultural land
arranged at a subordinate rise than the floodwater (Barnett et al., 2014).
Water Scarcity
Water shortage is a critical worry in Pakistan, and environmental change worsens
this issue (Khan et. al. 2022 & Khoso et al., 2015). Changes in precipitation designs and
expanded vanishing because of hotter temperatures lessen water accessibility for the
water system. This shortage influences crop efficiency, domesticated animals creation,
and agrarian efficiency. Flooding and soil salinization additionally become more regular,
lessening soil ripeness and yield efficiency.
Irregular Temperature
Temperature increment is one of the main effects of environmental change on
agriculture in Pakistan. The typical temperature climb in Pakistan somewhere in the
timeline of 1961 and 2010 was 1°C, and this pattern is projected to proceed, with
temperatures expected to ascend by another 1.5°C to 2.5°C by 2050. This warming pattern
influences crop development, efficiency, and reasonableness, prompting changes in
developing seasons, crop cycles, and water prerequisites. Heat pressure, which happens
when temperatures surpass 35°C, additionally turns out to be more regular and drawn
out, lessening crop development and efficiency.
Precipitation Impacts
Changes in precipitation designs are one more critical effect of environmental
change on farming in Pakistan. Winter precipitation (December to February) has
diminished, while summer precipitation (June to August) has expanded. This modified
precipitation design influences crop water necessities, soil dampness, and water system
needs, prompting dry seasons or floods. Outrageous climate occasions like weighty
precipitation and dry seasons become more successive, causing soil disintegration, land
debasement, and harm to yields and framework.
Extreme Weather Events
Extreme heat waves and delayed dry seasons lead to trim disappointment and
decreased yields. Whimsical and erratic storm downpours disturb planting and reaping
seasons. Consistently, the discernment is getting genuine that environmental change is a
reality; subsequently, leaders should be at monitors. Pakistan is no special case for the
rising effects of environmental change, which is becoming apparent each spending day.
The expanded recurrence and power of floods and late outrageous intensity wave
occasions ought to act as a stunner to specialists. Nonetheless, notwithstanding laying
out catastrophe to the executives specialists at the public and commonplace levels,
Pakistan has been not able to appropriately enhance the effects of disasters (Shahzad and
Amjad,2022).
Soil Degradation
Low gradation and salinization of soil because of expanded temperatures and
sporadic precipitation is one of the main hurdle in agricultural sustainability. Loss of soil
ripeness and efficiency is greatly influencing crop yields and food security.
Environmental change influences soil wellbeing and ripeness in Pakistan. Climbing
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temperatures and changed precipitation designs lead to soil disintegration, supplement
exhaustion, and decreased water-holding limit. This resulted in diminished crop yields,
decreased soil carbon sequestration, and expanded ozone harming substance
emanations.
Crop Yield Variablity
Fluctuating temperatures and precipitation designs bring about conflicting
harvest yields. Unpredictable climate occasions make it challenging for ranchers to really
design and deal with their yields. Environmental change essentially influences crop
yields, development stages, and appropriateness in Pakistan. Wheat, maize, and rice
yields are projected to decline by 10-20%, 15-30%, and 5-15%, individually, by 2050. The
alteration in the temperature and precipitation pattern automatically fine tune the crop
span and determine how much water is necessary for the said crop. This marks the
vulnerability of the yield against harsh weather and floods.
Food Insecurity
The continuous decline in the outcome of a crop and least efficient practices
contribute towards undersupply of food marked with high prices. Owing to this
fluctuation, the vulnerable community of the country will have to bear the brunt in the
shape of deteriorating health and hunger situations. Food security in Pakistan is highly
affected due to climate change in the form of declining harvest yields, shifting growing
season and livestock productivity. This greatly influences the poor class in the form of
reduced food availability, narrow access to nutritious food and inflation.
Conclusion
To cut the substance short, one can say that climate change poses drastic dangers
to the agricultural sustainability in Pakistan. The farming sector of the country is highly
vulnerable when it comes to the rising temperature, uncertainty in perception and
outstanding climate events. These all factors contribute towards minimum by-products
and disturb food security. The declining level of ground water and disturbed rain cycle
give rise to a commendable threat for the cultivation. Soil degradation and continuous
growing population of pests further diminish the efficiency of the results. These all facts
add to the burden of an already vulnerable farming community.
It is very imperative for Pakistan to acquire modern and sustainable techniques
in order to omit these issues. These techniques include the development of temperature
resistant seeds, research to enhance soil health mechanisms and drought resistant crops
to omit any misuse of ground level water. Educating and reinforcing the farmer class to
new trends of farming is also very crucial for a sustainable future. Moreover, global
agricultural practices and innovative methods in farming can save us from the atrocities
of climate change.
By carrying out this action plan, Pakistan can omit any chances of further
degradation in agriculture and simultaneously promising food security and creating a
well-organized system for the population without any iota of damage from climate
change. Seriousness in terms of effective policy initiation and implementation is very
pivotal as it will be a decisive approach for the prosperity of the future generations to
come.
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Recommendations
Pakistan should strive to advocate climate resistance crop varieties. The country
should try to put resources into innovative work of yield assortments that are impervious
to dry spell, intensity, and vermin. This incorporates hereditarily changed crops and
customary rearing methods to improve crop versatility. Energize the reception of
environment brilliant farming practices, like protection culturing, agroforestry, and
coordinated bother the board, to further develop soil wellbeing and increment crop
yields. Furthermore, water conservation practices should be entertained from grass root
level. Execute productive water system procedures, for example, dribble water system
and water reaping. Advance approaches that help the manageable utilization of
groundwater and surface water assets. Advance yield enhancement and intercropping
to decrease reliance on a couple of harvests. This can upgrade flexibility to environment
incited anxieties and market vacillations. Dispersing educational and vocational
practices among the farmers play a crucial rule in achieving sustainable development
pertaining to agriculture in Pakistan. By creating and dispersing exact weather
conditions estimating and early admonition frameworks to assist farmers with settling
on informed choices and make convenient moves to shield their harvests from
outrageous climate occasions. Give preparing and instruction to agriculturists on
manageable horticultural practices and environment transformation systems. Reinforce
expansion administrations to connect the information hole among layman and
specialists.
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