Mind Games: Coin Toss and Rock, Paper, Scissors (RPS) Day 2
Is being able to predict a coin toss independent of being able to win a game of rock,
paper, scissors?
1. Find the class data from the previous lesson to fill in the following two-way table.
RPS Win RPS Lose RPS Tie Total
Coin Toss Win
Coin Toss Lose
Total
Suppose that we randomly choose a student from class.
2. Find P(Coin Toss Win OR RPS Win)
3. Given that the person selected won RPS, what is the probability that they are able to
predict a coin toss? Write as a fraction, a decimal, and a percent.
4. Given that the person selected did not win RPS, what is the probability that they are able
to predict a coin toss? Write as a fraction, a decimal, and a percent.
Definition: Two events are independent if knowing whether one event has occurred does not
change the probability that the other event will occur.
5. Are the events “Coin Toss Win” and “RPS Win” independent? Explain.
Consider the data for all Seniors at EKHS.
RPS Win RPS Lose RPS Tie Total
Coin Toss Win 100 95 90 285
Coin Toss Lose 80 85 25 190
Total 180 180 115 475
6. Find each of the following using the data in the table. Write as a fraction, a decimal, and a
percent.
a. P(Coin Toss Win) =
b. P(Coin Toss Win | RPS Win) =
c. P(Coin Toss Win | RPS Lose) =
d. P(Coin Toss Win | RPS Tie) =
e. P(Coin Toss Win | Not RPS Win) =
f. Are “Coin Toss Win” and “RPS Win” Independent?
7. Fill in the table as if the events were INDEPENDENT.
RPS Win RPS Lose RPS Tie Total
Coin Toss Win 285
Coin Toss Lose 190
Total 180 180 115 475
8. Find each of the following using the INDEPENDENT table. Write as a fraction, a decimal,
and a percent.
a. P(Coin Toss Win) =
b. P(Coin Toss Win | RPS Win) =
c. P(Coin Toss Win | RPS Lose) =
d. P(Coin Toss Win | RPS Tie) =
e. P(Coin Toss Win | Not RPS Win) =
9. What do you notice about your answers in #6 and #8?
10. Generalize: Complete the following statement using a formula.
Let A → Coin Toss Win and B → RPS Win
If events A and B are INDEPENDENT then…
Conditional Probability and Independence
QuickNotes
Check Your Understanding:
The Pew Research center randomly selected 100 mothers age 40 to 44 in 1976, 1994, and 2014
and asked each mother how many children they have. The two-way table summarizes the
responses.
Year
1976 1994 2014 Total
1 child 11 21 22 54
Number
2 children 24 43 41 108
of
3 children 25 23 24 72
children
4+ children 40 13 13 66
Total 100 100 100 300
Suppose we randomly select one of the survey respondents. Define events C: have 4 or more
children, S: 1976, N: 1994, and F: 2014.
1. Find P(C | S). Interpret this value in context.
2. Given that the chosen mother was not surveyed in 1976, what’s the probability that she has 4
or more children? Write your answer as a probability statement using correct symbols for the
events.
3. Are the events “Surveyed in 1976” and “4 or more children” independent? Explain.
