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Article:
Roberts, Callum Michael orcid.org/0000-0003-2276-4258 (2020) Rebuilding marine life.
Nature. pp. 39-51. ISSN 0028-0836

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2146-7

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1

2 Rebuilding Marine Life

3
4
5 Carlos M. Duarte1,2, Susana Agusti3, Edward Barbier4, Gregory L. Britten5, Juan
6 Carlos Castilla6, Jean-Pierre Gattuso7-8, Robinson W. Fulweiler10, Terry P.
7 Hughes11, Nancy Knowlton12, Catherine E. Lovelock13, Heike K. Lotze14, Milica
8 Predragovic1, Elvira Poloczanska15, Callum Roberts16, and Boris Worm14
9
10 1. Red Sea Research Centre (RSRC) and Computational Bioscience Research Center
11 (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi
12 Arabia
13 2. Arctic Research Centre, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, C.F. Møllers
14 Allé 8, DK-8000 Århus C, Denmark
15 3. Red Sea Research Centre (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and
16 Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
17 4. Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523,
18 United States
19 5. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute
20 of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
21 6. Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas and Centro
22 Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av.
23 Libertador B. O´Higgins 340. Santiago, Chile
24 7. Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche,
25 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
26 8. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po,
27 Paris, France
28 9. Monegasque Association on Ocean Acidification, Prince Albert II of Monaco
29 Foundation, Monaco, Monaco
30 10. Departments of Earth & Environment and Biology, Boston University, 685
31 Commonwealth Ave., Boston, MA 02215, USA
32 11. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James
33 Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia

1
34 12. National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, 1000 Constitution
35 Ave., NW, Washington, DC, 20560, USA
36 13. School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland,
37 Australia
38 14. Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3V
39 1K4
40 15. Alfred Wegener Institute, Integrative Ecophysiology, Bremerhaven, Germany.
41 16. Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK
42
43

44

45
46

2
47 The UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 aims to “conserve and sustainably use the oceans,
48 seas and marine resources for sustainable development”. Achieving this goal will require
49 rebuilding the marine life-support systems that deliver the many benefits society receives
50 from a healthy ocean. In this Review we document the recovery of marine populations,
51 habitats and ecosystems following past conservation interventions. Recovery rates across
52 studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure, and function of marine
53 life could be achieved by 2050, should major pressures, including climate change, be
54 mitigated. Rebuilding marine life represents a doable Grand Challenge for humanity, an
55 ethical obligation, and a smart economic objective to achieve a sustainable future.
56

57

58 The ability of the ocean to support human wellbeing is at a crossroads. The ocean currently

59 contributes 2.5% of global GDP and provides employment to 1.5% of the global workforce1,

60 with an estimated output of US$1.5 trillion in 2010, expected to double by 20301. And there

61 is increased attention on the ocean as a source of food and water2, clean energy1, and as a

62 means to mitigate climate change3,4. At the same time, many marine species, habitats and

63 ecosystems have suffered catastrophic declines5-8 and climate change is further undermining

64 ocean productivity and biodiversity9-14 (Fig. 1).

65
66 The conflict between growing human dependence on ocean resources and declining marine

67 life under human pressures (Fig. 1) is focusing unprecedented attention on the connection

68 between ocean conservation and human well-being15. The UN Sustainable Development Goal

69 14 (SDG14 or “life below water”) aims to “conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas

70 and marine resources for sustainable development”

71 (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14). Achieving this goal will require rebuilding

72 marine life, defined in the context of SDG14 as the life-support systems (populations,

73 habitats, and ecosystems) that deliver the many benefits society receives from a healthy

74 ocean16,17. Here we show that, in addition to being a necessary goal, substantially rebuilding

75 marine life within a human generation is largely achievable, if the required actions,

76 prominently mitigating climate change, are deployed at scale.

3
77 Slowing the decline of marine life and achieving net gains

78 By the time the general public admired life below water through the “Undersea World of

79 Jacques Cousteau” (1968-1976), the abundance of large marine animals was already greatly

80 reduced5-7,18. And the abundance of marine animals and habitats that support ecosystems

81 services has shrunk to a fraction of what was in place when the first frameworks to conserve

82 and sustain marine life were introduced in the 1980s (Fig. 1), to a fraction of pre-exploitation

83 levels5,6,19,20. Currently, at least one-third of fish stocks are overfished 21, one-third to half of

84 vulnerable marine habitats have been lost8, a substantial fraction of the coastal ocean suffers

85 from pollution, eutrophication, oxygen depletion and is stressed by ocean warming22-23, and

86 many marine species are threatened with extinction7,24-25. Nevertheless, biodiversity losses in

87 the ocean are less pronounced than on land7, and many marine species are capable of

88 remarkable recovery once pressures are reduced or removed (Figs. 2-3). Substantial

89 wilderness areas remain in remote regions26, and large populations of marine animals are still

90 found, for example, in mesopelagic (200-1000 m depth) ocean waters 27.

91

92

93
94 Regional examples of impressive resilience include the rebound of fish stocks during World

95 Wars I and II following drastic reduction in fishing pressure28, the recovery since 1958 of

96 coral reefs in the Marshall Islands from 76 megatons of nuclear tests 29, and the improved

97 health of the Black Sea30 and Adriatic Sea31 following sudden reduction in fertilizer

98 application after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although these rapid recoveries were

99 unrelated to conservation actions, they helped inform subsequent interventions deployed in

100 response to widespread ocean degradation7,32-33. These interventions include a suite of

4
101 initiatives to save threatened species, protect and restore vulnerable habitats, constrain

102 fishing, reduce pollution, and mitigate climate change (Fig. 1, Table 1).

103
104 Impactful Interventions

105
106 Hunting Regulation

107 Species protections through the Convention on the Trade of Endangered Species (CITES,

108 1975, cites.org) and the global moratorium on commercial whaling (1982, iwc.int) are

109 prominent examples of international actions to protect marine life34 (Fig. 1). These actions

110 have been supplemented by national initiatives to reduce hunting pressure on endangered

111 species and protect their breeding habitat34,35.

112

113 Fisheries management

114 Successful rebuilding of depleted fish populations has been achieved in many cases through

115 well-proven management actions, including catch and effort restrictions, closed areas,

116 regulation of fishing capacity and gear, catch shares, and co-management arrangements

117 (Suppl. Material 1) 35-39. These interventions require detailed consideration of socio-

118 economic circumstances, with solutions being tailored to local context37. Persistent

119 challenges include harmful subsidies, poverty and lack of alternative employment, illegal and

120 unregulated fishing, and the disruptive ecological impacts of many fisheries36-39.

121
122 Water quality improvement

123 Policies to lower inputs of nutrients and sewage to reduce coastal eutrophication and hypoxia

124 were initiated four decades ago in the USA and EU, leading to major improvements today40-
42
125 . Many hazardous pollutants have been regulated or phased-out through the Stockholm

126 Convention (www.pops.int) and, specifically in the ocean, by the MARPOL Convention

5
127 (www.imo.org), often reinforced by national and regional policies. Recent attention has

128 focused on curbing plastic pollution entering the ocean, which remains a growing problem,

129 with inputs currently estimated at between 4.8 to 12.7 million Mton per year43.

130

131 Habitat protection and restoration

132 The need to better protect sensitive habitats, including non-target species, has inspired the use

133 of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) as a comprehensive management tool3,44. In 2000, only

134 0.13 million km2 (0.003%) of the ocean was protected, but MPAs now cover 27.4 million

135 km2 (7.6% of ocean area, or 4.8% if considering fully implemented MPAs (mpatlas.org,

136 accessed May 3, 2019). MPA coverage continues to grow at about 8% per year (Fig. 2.,

137 Suppl. Video V1) .

138

139 The 21st Century has seen a global surge of active habitat protection and restoration

140 initiatives (Fig. 2, Suppl. Material 1, Suppl.Videos V1 and V2), even in challenging

141 environments adjoining coastal megacities (Suppl. Material 1). These efforts have delivered

142 benefits, such as improved water quality following oyster reef restoration. Additionally, Blue

143 Carbon strategies, submitted within Nationally Determined Contributions of > 50 nations, at

144 the heart of the Paris Agreement46, are being used to mitigate climate change and improve

145 coastal protection by restoring seagrass, saltmarsh and mangrove habitats46-47 (Suppl.

146 Material 1).

147
148 Recovery to date
149

150 Extinction risk reductions

151 The proportion of marine species assessed by the IUCN Red List as threatened with global

152 extinction (Suppl. Mat. S2) has decreased from 18% in 2000 to 11.4% in 2019 (sd=1.7%,

6
153 n=1743), with trends being relatively uniform across ocean basins and guilds (Fig. S2.1). In

154 part, this reflects a growing number of species that has been assessed. However, many

155 assessed species have improved their threat status over the past decade48-51. For marine

156 mammals, 47% of 124 well-assessed populations34 showed a significant increase over the

157 past decades, with 40% unchanged and only 13% decreasing (Fig. 3b, Table S2). Some large

158 marine species have exhibited particularly striking rebounds, even from the brink of

159 extinction (Fig. 3c). Humpback whales migrating from Antarctica to eastern Australia have

160 been increasing at 10% to 13% year-1, from a few hundred animals in 1968 to >40,000

161 currently49. Northern elephant seals recovered from about 20 breeding individuals in 1880 to

162 >200,000 today50, and gray seal populations have increased by 1410% in eastern Canada51

163 and 823% in the Baltic41 since 1977. Southern sea otters have grown from about 50

164 individuals in 1911 to several thousand today35. While still endangered, most sea turtle

165 populations for which trends are available are increasing in size52, ranging from 4-14%

166 increase year-1 for green turtle nesting populations52.

167

168 Fisheries recovery

169 Using a comprehensive stock assessment database53 we found that fish populations with

170 available scientific assessments are increasingly managed for sustainability. The proportion

171 of stocks with fishing mortality estimates (F) below the level that would produce maximum

172 sustainable yield (F<FMSY) has increased from 60% in 2000 to 68% in 2012. Many fish

173 stocks subjected to such management interventions display positive trends (Fig. 3a), and

174 globally aggregated stock assessments suggest a slowing-down of fish stock depletion21,36,39,

175 although this trend has not been measured for the majority of stocks that lack scientific

176 assessment36. The most recent report of the Food and Agriculture Organisation on global

177 fisheries21 also suggests that two thirds of large-scale commercial fisheries are exploited at

7
178 sustainable rates, but again this figure does also not account for smaller stocks or non-target

179 by-catch species, which are often not assessed and in poor condition36,54. Available data

180 suggests that scientifically-assessed stocks generally have a better likelihood of recovery due

181 to improved management and regulatory status compared to unassessed species36, which still

182 represent the majority of fisheries, especially in developing countries.

183
184 Pollution reduction

185 Time-series analyses show that legacy persistent organic pollutants have declined even in

186 marine environments that tend to accumulate them (e.g. the Arctic55). The transition toward

187 unleaded gasoline since the 1980’s reduced Pb to concentrations comparable to baseline

188 levels across the global ocean by 2010-201156. Likewise, the total ban in 2008 of the anti-

189 fouling chemical TBT (tributyltin) led to rapid declines of imposex (females developing male

190 sexual organs), a TBT-specific symptom, in an indicator gastropod57. Improved safety

191 regulations have also led to a 14-fold reduction in large tanker vessel oil spills from 24.7

192 events per year in the 1970’s to 1.7 events per year in the present decade58. Whereas evidence

193 of improved coastal water quality following nutrient reductions was equivocal a decade

194 ago59, multiple success stories have now been confirmed41,60, with positive ecosystem effects

195 such as the net recovery of seagrass meadows in the USA61 (Fig. 1), Europe62, Baltic Sea41,

196 and Japan63.

197
198 Habitat restoration
199
200 Evidence that mangrove restoration can be achieved at scale first came from the Mekong

201 Delta, possibly the largest (1,500 km2 ) habitat restoration undertaken to date (Suppl. Material

202 1). Global loss of mangrove forests has since slowed to 0.11% year-1 64,65, with stable

203 mangrove populations along the Pacific coast of Colombia, Costa Rica, and Panama66, and

204 increasing populations in the Red Sea67, Arabian Gulf 68 and China69. Large-scale restoration

8
205 of saltmarshes and oyster reefs has occurred in Europe and the USA (Fig. 2, Suppl. Material

206 1). Restoration attempts of seagrass, seaweed and coral reef ecosystems are also increasing

207 globally, although they are often very small in scale (Fig. 2, Suppl. Video V2, Suppl.

208 Material 1). Critically, a global inventory of total restored area is critically missing.

209

210 Potential for rebuilding

211 Efforts to rebuild marine life cannot aim to return the ocean to any particular past reference

212 point. Our records of marine life are too fragmented to compose a robust baseline, and the

213 ocean has changed dramatically and in some cases irreversibly, including the extinction of at

214 least 20 marine species25. Yet by increasing abundances of key habitats and keystone species

215 and restoring the three-dimensional complexity of benthic ecosystems, large and long-living

216 marine animals and plants can again fulfill their ecosystem functions, promoting a diverse

217 and vibrant ocean ecosystem. The yardstick of success should be the restoration of marine

218 ecological structure, functions, resilience and ecosystem services, involving a greater

219 capacity to supply the growing needs of an additional 2 to 3 billion people by 2050. To meet

220 this goal, rebuilding of depleted populations and ecosystems must replace the goal of

221 conserving and sustaining the status quo, taking swift action to avoid tipping points beyond

222 which collapse may be irreversible11,18,33,33.

223 Here we examine rates of recovery of marine species and habitats to date, and propose a

224 tentative timeframe in which substantial recovery of marine life may be possible, should

225 major pressures, including climate change, be mitigated. We broadly define recovery as the

226 rebound in populations of marine species and habitats following losses, which can be partial

227 (i.e. 10-50% increase), substantial (50-90% increase) or full (> 90% increase)47.

228

9
229 Marine megafauna
230

231 A number of megafauna species, including humpback whales and northern elephant seals,

232 have recovered fully to historical baselines following protection (Fig. 3c), but rates depend on

233 life history: some large whales may require >100 years to recover, while smaller pinnipeds

234 may only need several decades35 (Fig. 3c,d). Sea turtles have recovery time-scales of up to

235 100 years, although some populations have partially re-grown much faster (e.g. green turtles

236 in Hawaii increased 6-fold between 1973 and 201670). Seabird populations typically require a

237 few decades to recover35,41 (Fig. 3c,d).

238
239 Fish stocks
240
241 Recovery can also refer to achieving resilient populations that support the full extent of

242 ecosystem functions and services that characterize them. For instance, fish stock recovery is

243 often defined in terms of biomass increases to the level that allows for maximum sustainable

244 yield (BMSY), which fisheries harvest theory predict to be between 37% and 50% of the virgin

245 biomass (B0), depending on the particular model used (cf. Suppl. Information S2, Fig. S2.2).

246 This range is consistent with an empirical estimate of B0 for 147 exploited fish stocks, which

247 found contemporary BMSY values to be 40% of B0, on average, with a range of 26% to 46%

248 across taxa71. Reported recovery times to BMSY for exploited finfish and invertebrate stocks

249 range between 3-30 years35 (Figs. 3 and 4), which is consistent with paleo-reconstructions of

250 pre-historic collapse and recovery of anchovy, sardine and hake stocks72, data from fisheries

251 closures54,73, and stock assessments for individual fisheries74. However, BMSY should be

252 considered to represent a minimum recovery target39, since it does not account for ecosystem

253 interactions, and might only provide limited resilience in the face of environmental

254 uncertainty and change.

255

10
256 Minimum recovery times of populations are set by the maximum intrinsic rate of population

257 increase (rmax), which is typically higher than observed rates, resulting in longer recovery

258 times75,76. Recovery rates also depend on the fishing pressure imposed on the stock; for

259 example, the time required to rebuild populations depleted to BMSY is estimated to range from

260 about one decade, if fishing mortality (F) is rapidly reduced below the level that produces

261 maximum sustainable yield (FMSY. Longer recovery times unfold if fishing pressure is

262 reduced more slowly36,77 (Fig. 4). Recovery for longer-lived, slow-growing species such as

263 most elasmobranchs (sharks, rays and skates), depleted coral reef fish and deep-sea species,

264 may take much longer35,76.

265

266 Coastal habitats

267

268 Recovery for coastal habitats following removal of stressors or active restoration typically

269 occurs on a similar time scale as fish stock recovery, less than a decade for oyster reefs78, and

270 other invertebrate populations (Suppl. Information S3) and kelp-dominated habitats79,80,

271 between one to two decades for saltmarsh81 and mangrove82 habitats, and one to several

272 decades for seagrass meadows83 (Fig. 3d). Deep-sea corals and sponges grow more slowly

273 and recovery times from trawling disturbance or oil spills may range from 30 years to over a

274 century84,85. Recovery timescales of coral reefs impacted by local stressors range from a few

275 years to over a decade (Fig. 3d). However, recovery from severe coral bleaching has taken

276 well over a decade and will slow in the future as ocean warming causes the interval between

277 bleaching events to shrink12, with an associated steep reduction in recruitment86.

278

279 In summary, available data suggest that many marine species and habitats require one to three

280 decades to approach undisturbed or reference level ranges after removal of the causes of

11
281 decline35,86,87,90-92, with much longer recovery times required for some slow-growing groups35

282 (Fig. 3).

283

284 Recovery times

285
286 The time required to rebuild marine life components depends on the extent of previous

287 declines, which are often substantial. The reduction in species abundance and biomass

288 relative to pre-disturbance baselines averages about 44 and 56%, respectively, across

289 impacted marine ecosystems87. Similarly, the Living Blue Planet Report estimated a 49%

290 decline in abundance of marine animal populations between 1970 and 201288, although many

291 species and habitats have declined since89-90. Moreover, while maximum rates of marine

292 population recovery typically range from 2 to 10% per year20 (Fig. 3c), rates slow down as

293 carrying capacity is approached20. Assuming a reported average annual recovery rate of

294 2.95% (95% C.I. 2.42 - 3.41%) across marine ecosystems20 and a characteristic rebuilding

295 deficit of about 50% of pre-disturbance baselines87, we provisionally estimate that the

296 average time to reach 90% of undisturbed baselines (i.e. achieve substantial recovery) would

297 be about 21 years (95% C.I. 18 - 25 years) (Fig. 3d). However, the expectation of an average

298 recovery time of about two decades is compromised by the fact that many species and

299 habitats continue to decline, and some pressures, such as climate change and plastic

300 pollution, are still increasing (Fig. 1). Hence, a longer time scale to achieve substantial (50 to

301 90%), rather than full (> 90%), recovery may be a more realistic target for rebuilding marine

302 life.

303

304 Based on the case studies examined, we provisionally adopt three decades from today (2050)

305 as a target timeline for substantial (i.e. 50 to 90%) recovery of many components of marine

306 life (Fig. 3, Table 1), recognizing that many slow-growing, severely depleted species and

12
307 threatened habitats may take longer to recover (Fig. 3), and that natural variability may delay

308 recovery further (Fig. 4).

309

310 Critically, achieving substantial recovery by 2050 requires that major pressures are mitigated

311 soon, including climate change under the Paris Agreement. Climate change impacting the

312 demography, phenology and biogeography of many marine species and compromising

313 productivity of marine ecosystems9-13,91-93 (Fig. 4). Impacts of realized climate change on

314 many coral reefs today12 raise concerns about their future prospect (Table 1). Shall we

315 succeed in mitigating against climate change and other pressures, we may witness the

316 beginning of a trend-change from previous steep decline to stabilization and, in many cases,

317 substantial global recovery of marine life in the 21st century (Figs. 1-4).

318

319 A roadmap

320

321 Steps taken to rebuild marine life to date have involved a process of trial and error that

322 delayed positive outcomes (e.g. in the EU and USA41,42), but generated know-how to cost-

323 effectively propel subsequent efforts at scale. Improved ocean stewardship, as required by

324 UN SDG 14, is a goal shared across many nations, cultures, faiths, and political systems,

325 occupying an unprecedented prominent place in the agendas of governments, corporations,

326 philanthropists, and individuals than ever before17,95. This provides a window of opportunity

327 to mitigate existing pressures over the next decade while supporting global initiatives to

328 achieve substantial recovery of marine life by 2050 (Table 1, Suppl. Information 3). We are

329 at a point when we can choose between a legacy of a resilient and vibrant ocean or an

330 irreversibly disrupted ocean, for the generations to follow.

13
331

332 Some of the interventions required to rebuild marine life have already been initiated, but

333 decadal time lags imply that the full benefits are yet to be realized35,36,39,47,48,59. Because most

334 policies to reduce local pressures and prompt recovery of marine life were introduced after

335 the 1970’s (Figs. 1 and 2), it is only now that comprehensive benefits (Fig. 3) are becoming

336 evident at a larger scale. Likewise, since most current MPAs are less than 10 years old (Fig.

337 2), their full benefits, which increase with reserve age, are yet to be realized94, in the case of

338 MPAs properly managed and enforced94.

339

340 Recovery Wedges

341 There is no silver bullet for achieving substantial recovery of marine life by 2050. Rather,

342 recovery requires stacking a number of complementary actions, here termed recovery

343 wedges, each helping to raise the recovery rate to reach or exceed the target of 2.4% increase

344 year-1 across different ecosystem components (Table 1, Suppl. Information S1, S3 and S4).

345 These wedges include protecting vulnerable habitats and species, adopting cautionary

346 harvesting strategies, restoring habitats, reducing pollution, and mitigating climate change

347 (Table 1, Suppl. Information S1, S3 and S4). The strength of the contribution of each of these

348 wedges to the recovery target varies across species and ecosystems. For instance, mitigating

349 climate change is the basal wedge to set coral reefs on a recovery trajectory, while improved

350 habitat protection and fisheries management are the largest wedges for marine vertebrates

351 and deep-sea habitats (Table 1, Suppl. Information S3).

352

353 Ongoing efforts to remove pressures on marine life from anthropogenic climate change,

354 hunting, fishing, habitat destruction, pollution and eutrophication (Fig. 1) must be expanded

355 and made more effective (Table 1). A new framework to predict risks of new synthetic

14
356 chemicals is required to avoid circumstances where industry introduces new chemicals faster

357 than their risks can be assessed. Challenges remain for persistent legacy pollutants (e.g. CO2,

358 organochlorines and plastics) already added to the atmosphere and oceans, whose removal

359 requires novel capture technologies and protection of long-term sinks, such as marine

360 sediments, to avoid their remobilization.

361

362 MPAs represent a necessary and powerful recovery wedge across multiple components of the

363 ocean ecosystem, spanning from coastal habitats to fish and megafauna populations (Table

364 1). Growth of MPAs (Fig. 2, Suppl. Video V1) is currently on track to meet the target of 10%

365 of ocean area protected by 2020, 30% by 2037 and 50% by 204496. Many fish stocks could

366 recover to BMSY by 2030, assuming global management reforms couple the use of closed and

367 protected areas with measures to reduce overfishing and collateral ecosystem damage,

368 adapted to local context (Fig. 4, Table 1). However, projected climate impacts on ocean

369 productivity and increase in extreme events93 can delay recovery and, depending on emission

370 pathways, may prevent recovery altogether (e.g. Fig. 4). The current focus on quantitative

371 targets of percent ocean area protected has prompted concerns over the quality and

372 effectiveness of MPAs97. Although 71% of assessed MPAs have been successful in

373 enhancing fish populations, the level of protection is often weak (94% allow fishing98), and

374 many areas are undermined by insufficient human and financial capacity99. Improving the

375 effectiveness of MPAs requires enhanced resourcing, governance, level of protection98-100

376 and siting to better match the geography of threats 101, and to ensure desired outcomes.

377

378 The current surge in restoration efforts (Fig. 2, Suppl. Video 2) can, if sustained, be an

379 instrumental recovery wedge to meet rebuilding targets for marine habitats by 2050 (Table

380 1). For instance, assuming a mean project size of 4197 ha102, restoring mangroves to their

15
381 original extent of 225,000 km2 by 2050 would require initiating 70 projects per year. This is

382 not unrealistic, as realization of the benefits, such as reducing storm damage in low-lying

383 areas40,103,104, encourages further growth in restoration efforts (Fig. 2, Video V2). Past

384 coastal restoration projects had reported average success rates ranging from 38% (seagrass)

385 to 64% (saltmarshes and corals)102, but reasons for failure are well understood78,105-107, which

386 should improve future outcomes. Much can be learned from increased reporting of failed

387 attempts, because the published literature may be biased towards successful restoration

388 projects102. Emerging technologies are now being developed to restore coral species in the

389 presence of climate change108,109, but long-term testing is required before their effectiveness

390 and lack of negative consequences are proven. Kelp restoration at a national scale in Japan

391 provides a successful model, rooted in cultural practices, for linking restoration to sustainable

392 fishing (Suppl. Material S1). More broadly, these practices recognize that sustainable harvest

393 of marine resources ought to be balanced by broader restoration actions embedded in a

394 social-ecological context, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, restoring habitats,

395 removing marine litter, or managing hydrological flows to avoid hypoxia (Suppl. Material

396 S1). These restoration experiences (Suppl. Material S1) also find involvement of local

397 communities to be essential, because of their economic dependence, commitment to place,

398 and ownership110.

399

400 Removing pollution is a basal recovery wedge for seagrass meadows, coral reefs, and kelp

401 forests (Table 1). Three decades of efforts to abate coastal eutrophication have provided

402 valuable knowledge on how actionable science can guide restoration successes41,42,111.

403 Additional interventions (e.g., restoring hydrological flows or rebuilding oyster reefs), can

404 catalyze additional removal of nutrients while improving biodiversity111. Seaweed

405 aquaculture can help to alleviate eutrophication and reduce hypoxia111,112. Nutrient reduction

16
406 has the additional benefit of locally reducing coastal acidification113 and hypoxia23 directly

407 and indirectly through the recovery of seagrass meadows. Reducing sulfur dioxide

408 precipitation, hypoxia, eutrophication, emissions and runoff from acidic fertilizers also helps

409 reduce acidification of coastal waters22,113. Large-scale experiments in anoxic basins of the

410 Baltic Sea for example, have shown that treatment of sediments with phosphorus-binding

411 agents help break biogeochemical feedback loops keeping ecosystems in an alternative

412 anoxic stable state114.

413

414 Oil spills from tanker vessels should decline further with the incoming International Maritime

415 Organisation (IMO) requirement (13 F of Annex 1 of MARPOL) for double hulls in new

416 large oil tankers, although deep-water drilling, illustrated by the catastrophic Deep-Water

417 Horizon Spill in 2010115, and increasing risks of oil spills from future oil drilling and tanker

418 routes in the Arctic116 present new challenges.. Noise pollution from shipping and other

419 industrial activities, such as drilling, pile driving and seismic surveys should be reduced117.

420 Likewise, worldwide efforts to reduce or ban single-use plastic (initiated in developing

421 nations), taxes on plastic bags, deposit-refunds on bottles, and other market-based

422 instruments are being deployed to reduce marine litter, while providing incentives to build a

423 circular economy for existing plastics while developing safer materials.

424

425 Roadblocks

426

427 A number of roadblocks may delay or prevent recovery of some critical components of

428 marine life (Table 1). These include natural variability and intensification of environmental

429 extremes caused by anthropogenic climate change (Fig. 4), “black swans” (i.e. unexpected

430 natural or social events), and failure to meet commitments to reduce existing pressures and

17
431 mitigate climate change. In addition, growing human population, likely to exceed 9 billion by

432 2050, will create additional demands for seafood, coastal space and other ocean resources.

433 Accordingly, the aspiration if that recovery targets by 2050, if all necessary recovery wedges

434 are stacked, could be substantial to full recovery (i.e. 50 to 100% increase relative to present)

435 for most rebuilding components (Table 1). Partial to substantial (10 to >50 %) recovery can

436 be targeted for deep-sea habitats, where slow-recovery rates lead to a modest rebuilding

437 scope by 2050, and for coral reefs, where existing and projected climate change severely

438 limits the rebuilding prospects13,93 (Table 1).

439

440 A major roadblock to recovery for intertidal habitats, such as mangroves and saltmarshes, is

441 their conversion to urban areas, aquaculture ponds or infrastructure (Table 1). However, even

442 in large cities, such as New York and Shenzen, some restoration of degraded habitats has

443 been achieved (Suppl. Information S1). Incentives to develop alternative sources of

444 livelihood, relocate landholders, mediate land-tenure conflicts110, and improve land use

445 planning can release more habitat for coastal restoration (Table 1). Tools are emerging to

446 prioritize sites for restoration based on past experience and a broad suite of biophysical and

447 socio-economic predictors of success118. Reduced sediment supply due to dam construction

448 in watersheds119 is also an important challenge for the recovery of salt marshes and

449 mangroves, exacerbated by sea level rise and climate change (Table 1). However, these

450 habitats may be less vulnerable than previously thought120, with a recent assessment

451 concluding that global gains of 60% of coastal wetland area are possible under sea level

452 rise120. In contrast, enhanced sediment load from land clearing is often responsible for losses

453 of nearshore coral reefs and hinders their capacity to recover from coral bleaching121.

454

455 Overcoming the climate change roadblock

18
456 Climate change is the critical backdrop against which all future rebuilding efforts will play

457 out. Current greenhouse gas emission trajectories lead to warming by 2100 of 2.6 to 4.5 °C

458 above pre-industrial levels, far exceeding the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement122.

459 Much stronger emission reduction efforts122,123 are needed to fill the gap between target

460 emissions and projected emissions under the present voluntary Nationally Determined

461 Contributions124 a challenging but not impossible task123. Efforts to rebuild marine life need

462 to consider unavoidable impacts brought about by ocean warming, acidification and sea level

463 rise already committed by past emissions, even if the climate mitigation wedge, represented

464 by the Paris Agreement, is fully implemented. These changes include projected shifts in

465 habitats and communities at subtropical-tropical (coral to algal turf and seaweed),

466 subtropical-temperate (kelp to coral and urchin barrens, saltmarsh to mangrove) temperate-

467 Arctic (bare to kelp, ice fauna to pelagic), and intertidal (coastal squeeze) boundaries10-13,93,

468 propelled by species displacements and mass mortalities from future heat waves11-13,93.

469 Mapping the areas where the likelihood of these transitions is high can help prioritize where

470 and how restoration interventions should be deployed118. For instance, conserving and

471 restoring vegetated coastal habitats will help to defend shorelines against increasing risks

472 from sea level rise while helping to mitigate climate change4,40,103. Well-managed MPAs may

473 help build resilience to climate change121. However, many of them are already affected by

474 ocean warming with further climate change potentially compromising their performance in

475 the future125.

476

477 Rebuilding coral reefs carries the highest risk of failure (Table 1), as cumulative pressures

478 (e.g. overfishing and pollution) driving their historic decline are now increasingly

479 compounded by warming-induced bleaching11,12. The IPCC projects that global warming to

480 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will result in very high risks and losses of coral reefs13

19
481 unless adaptation occurs faster than currently anticipated. A study published after the 1.5 oC

482 IPCC assessment13, shows that while coral bleaching has increased in frequency and intensity

483 in the last decade, the onset of coral bleaching is now occurring at significantly warmer

484 temperatures (∼0.5 °C) than before, suggesting that the remaining coral populations now have

485 a higher thermal threshold for bleaching, either due to decline of thermally-vulnerable species

486 and genotypes and/or acclimation126. However, the capacity to restore coral reefs lags behind

487 that of all other marine habitats, because coral-reef restoration efforts typically have a very

488 small footprint, and are expensive and slow102. Coral restoration often fails because the

489 original causes of mortality remain unchecked, and despite decades of effort (Fig. 2), only

490 tens of hectares have been regrown so far. Our growing knowledge of ecological processes in

491 coral reefs provides opportunities to catalyze recovery by reducing multiple pressures while

492 repairing key processes, including herbivory and larval recruitment11,109. Mitigating the

493 drivers of coral loss, particularly climate change, and developing innovative approaches

494 within this decade are imperatives to revert coral losses at scale108-109. Efforts are underway to

495 find corals resistant to temperatures and acidity levels expected by the end of the 21st century,

496 to understand the mechanisms of their resistance and to use ‘assisted evolution’ to engineer

497 these characteristics into other corals108,109. These efforts are in their infancy and their

498 benefits currently unproven.

499

500 Overall then, societal benefits that would accrue from substantially rebuilding marine life by

501 2050 will be significantly dependent on the mitigation of greenhouse emissions and on the

502 development of efficient CO2 capture and removal technologies to meet or, preferably,

503 exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement.

504

505 Investment needed and returns expected

20
506 Substantial rebuilding of marine life by 2050 requires sustained effort and financial support

507 (Suppl. Material S4), with an estimated cost of at least $10-20 billion per year to extend

508 protection actions to reach 50% of the ocean space127 and substantial additional funds for

509 restoration. This is comparable to establishing a global MPA network conserving 20-30% of

510 the ocean ($5 to $19 billion annually127,128). Yet the economic return from this commitment

511 will be significant, around $10 per $1 invested and in excess of one million jobs127,128.

512 Ecotourism in protected areas provides 4 to 12 times greater economic returns than fishing

513 without reserves36 (e.g. A$5.5bn annually and 53,800 full time jobs in the Great Barrier

514 Reef129). Rebuilt fisheries could increase the annual profits of the global seafood industry by

515 $53 billion126. Conserving coastal wetlands could save the insurance industry $52 billion

516 annually through reducing storm flooding127, while providing additional benefits of carbon

517 sequestration, income and subsistence from harvesting, and from fisheries supported by

518 coastal wetlands 40,127.

519

520 A global rebuilding effort of exploited fish stocks could increase fishing yields by ~15% and

521 profits by ~80%36,77 while reducing by-catch mortality, thereby helping to promote recovery

522 in non-target species as well130. Rebuilding fish stocks can be supported by market-based

523 instruments, such as rationalizing global fishing subsidies77, taxes and catch shares38, to end

524 perverse incentives131, and by the growth of truly sustainable aquaculture to reduce pressure

525 on wild stocks2. Whereas most regulatory measures focus on commercial fisheries,

526 subsistence132 and recreational133 fishing are also globally relevant and need to be aligned

527 with rebuilding efforts to achieve sustainability.

528

529 Call to action

21
530 Rebuilding marine life requires a global partnership of diverse interests, including

531 governments, businesses, resource users, and civil society127,134 aligned around an evidence-

532 based action plan supported by a sound policy framework, a science and educational plan,

533 quantitative targets, metrics for success, and a business plan. It also requires leadership to

534 assemble the scientific and socio-economic knowledge and technologies required to rebuild

535 marine life and the capacity to deploy them. A concerted global effort to restore and protect

536 marine life and ecosystems could create millions of new, and in many cases, well-paying,

537 jobs127,135. Hence, commitments of governments, required to meet the UN SDGs by 2030,

538 need to be supported and reinforced by commitments from society, non-governmental agents,

539 including philanthropic groups, corporations and industry (Suppl. Information S4). The

540 sectors operating in the ocean spaces, which bear considerable responsibility for the losses

541 thus far experienced and, in many cases, are likely to be the main beneficiaries of efforts to

542 rebuild marine life, must change their ethos to commit to net positive conservation impact as

543 part of their social license to operate in the ocean space. Human use of the ocean should be

544 designed for net positive conservation impact, creating add-on benefits136 that increase

545 prosperity and catalyze political will to deploy further efforts in a positive feedback spiral of

546 ocean bounty.

547

548 The long-term commitment to rebuilding marine life requires a powerful narrative, supported

549 by scientific evidence that conveys its feasibility in the face of climate change and growing

550 human population, its alignment with societal values, and its widespread societal benefits.

551 Growing numbers of success stories and positive outlooks could shift the balance from a

552 wave of pessimism that dominated past scientific narratives of the future ocean5,7,11,32,33 to

553 evidence-based ‘ocean optimism’137 (e.g. #oceanoptimism in social media), conveying

554 solutions and opportunities for actions that help drive positive change138. This optimism must

22
555 be balanced with transparent and robust communication of the risks posed by relevant

556 pressures that are yet to be mitigated.

557

558 Rebuilding marine life will benefit from nations declaring, analogous to the Paris Agreement

559 on climate change, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) toward rebuilding marine

560 life127. NDCs aimed at rebuilding marine life will be essential for accountability, auditing

561 milestones and forecasting success in reaching goals. NDCs can include both commitments

562 for action within national Economic Exclusive Zones, as well as a catalogue of actionable

563 opportunities available to investors, corporations and philanthropists127.

564

565 The global policy framework required to rebuild marine life is largely in place through

566 existing UN mechanisms (targets to be adopted in 2020 under the Global Biodiversity

567 Framework of the CBD, SDGs, and Paris Agreement of the UNFCC), if their most ambitious

568 goals are implemented, along with additional international conventions such as the Bonn

569 Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, the Moratorium on

570 Commercial Whaling of the International Whaling Commission (1982), Ramsar Convention

571 on Wetlands of International Importance, and CITES, among others. High-level coordination

572 among all UN instruments and international policies addressing the oceans, including the

573 High Seas, is needed.

574

575 The UN initiated, in 2018, an Intergovernmental Conference to reach a new legally-binding

576 treaty to protect marine life in the High Seas by 2020. This proposed treaty could enhance

577 cooperation, governance and funds for conservation and restoration of high-seas and deep-sea

578 ecosystems damaged or at risk from commercial interests139. This mandate would require

579 funding of around $30 million annually, which could be financed through long-term bonds in

23
580 international capital markets or taxes on resource extraction139. Internationally Agreed

581 Contributions will also be required, because populations of many species are shared across

582 Exclusive Economic Zones of multiple nations. This approach could follow the model of the

583 Regional Fisheries Management Organizations bringing together nations to manage shared

584 fish stocks, including those in High Seas139. For example, in September 2010 the Convention

585 for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR)

586 established the world's first MPA network on the high seas covering 286,200 km2 140.

587

588 Rebuilding marine life will also require active oversight, participation and cooperation by

589 local, regional, and national stakeholders. Readiness and capacity to implement recovery

590 wedges differs across nations, and cooperation to rebuild marine life should remain flexible

591 to adapt to variable cultural settings, and locally-designed approaches may be most

592 effective141 (Suppl. Information S1). Past failures in some nations can inform new

593 governance arrangements to avoid repeating mistakes elsewhere. Rebuilding marine life

594 should draw on successful marine policy formulation, management actions, and technologies

595 to nurture a learning curve that will propel future outcomes while reducing cost103,105-107. For

596 instance, many developed nations have already implemented nutrient reduction plans but

597 global fertilizer use is rising globally, supported mainly by demands from developing nations,

598 which also continue to develop their shorelines. Adopting the measures now in place in

599 developed nations to increase nitrogen-use efficiency in South and East Asia could lower

600 global synthetic fertilizer use by 2050, even under the increased crop production required to

601 feed a growing population142.

602

603 Calls for international assistance to support recovery, whether it is for coastal wetlands to

604 reduce risks of damages from natural disasters103 or marine life generally127, should include

24
605 assistance to improve governance and build institutional capacity. However, the capacity of

606 both developed and developing nations to deploy effective recovery actions is already

607 substantial. Mangrove restoration projects are significantly larger and cheaper but similarly

608 successful (about 50% survival reported) in developing nations compared to developed

609 ones102, and small-island states are showing growing leadership in responding to plastics

610 pollution and the marine impacts of climate change (aosis.org). However, many developing

611 countries need particularly high levels of investment to conserve and restore habitats that

612 protect populations at risk in low-lying coastal areas, which could be financed through

613 international climate-change adaptation funds103. Currently, the UN’s Green Climate Fund

614 has mobilized $10.3 billion annually to assist developing countries adapt to climate change,

615 with a goal of $100 billion per year in 2020 (https://www.greenclimate.fund/how-we-

616 work/resource-mobilization). Allocating a sizeable fraction of these funds to developing

617 countries for the conservation and restoration of “blue infrastructure” (e.g. saltmarshes,

618 oyster and coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds) could increase resilience of coastal

619 communities to climate change and to extreme events while improving their livelihoods103.

620

621 Conclusion

622 Based on the data reviewed here we conclude that substantial rebuilding across many

623 components of marine life by 2050 is an achievable Grand Challenge for science and society.

624 Meeting this challenge requires immediate action to reduce relevant pressures, including

625 climate change, safeguarding places of remaining abundance, and recovering depleted

626 populations, habitats and ecosystems elsewhere. This will require sustained substantial

627 perseverance and substantial commitment of financial resources, but we suggest that the

628 ecological, economic and social gains will be far-reaching. Success requires the

25
629 establishment of a committed and resilient global partnership of governments and societies

630 aligned with this goal, supported by coordinated policies, adequate financial and market

631 mechanisms, and evolving scientific and technological advances nurturing a fast learning

632 curve of rebuilding interventions. Meeting the challenge of substantially rebuilding marine

633 life would be a historic milestone in humanity’s quest to achieve a globally sustainable

634 future.

635

636
637 Acknowledgements
638
639 This work was supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology through
640 baseline funding to CMD and SA. GLB was supported by the Simons Collaboration on
641 Computational Biogeochemical Modeling of Marine Ecosystems/CBIOMES (Grant ID:
642 549931); J-PG by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, the Ocean Acidification
643 International Coordination Centre of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Veolia
644 Foundation, and the French Facility for Global Environment; HKL and BW by the Natural
645 Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Ocean Frontier
646 Institute (Module G); JCC by the Catedra Arauco in Environmental Ethic-UC and Centro
647 Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global-UC. We thank Tomohiro Kuwae, Robert J. Orth, the
648 Mars Sustainable Solutions - part of Mars, Inc., and Christopher Haight at NYC Parks, and
649 Bryan DeAngelis for supplying details on restoration projects; Letizia Valuzzi, Reny
650 Devassy, Anieka Parry and Fadiyah Baalkhuyur for help with the inventory of restoration
651 projects, Elizabeth McLeod for help locating materials, and Alex Buxton and Seda Gasparian
652 for help with displays.
653
654
655 Author contributions C.M.D developed the concept and all authors contributed to the
656 design, data compilation, analysis and writing of the Review.
657
658 Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests.
659
660 Additional information
661 Supplementary information is available for this paper
662
663 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to C.M.D.
664
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1018
1019
1020

34
1021
1022 Table 1. Scenarios conducive to achieving the best aspirational outcomes toward
1023 rebuilding marine life. These include rebuilding wedges, assessment of the maximum
1024 recovery targets by 2050 shall these wedges be fully activated, key actors, actions,
1025 opportunities, benefits, roadblocks and remedial actions to rebuild different components of
1026 marine life (priority increases from lowest in blue, to yellow, orange and highest in red). See
1027 Suppl. Information 3 for details.

35
 Rebuilding Saltmarshes Mangroves Seagrass Coral reefs Kelp Oyster reefs Fisheries Megafauna Deep-sea
Protect species
Harvest wisely
Protect spaces
Restore habitats
Reduce pollution
Mitigate climate
change
Rcovery targets Substantial to Substantial Substanti Partial to Substant Substantial to Substantia Substantial Partial to
by 2050 Complete to Complete al to Substantiial ial to Complete l to Substantial
Government, civil Government, l
Governm Governmen Governml Government, l
Governme Government, International sea
society and civil society ent, civil t, tourism ent, fishers nt, fishers fishers bed authority,
NGOs and NGOs society operators, fishers organizations, organizatio organizations state and federal
Key Actors and fishers organizat NGOs and ns and , NGOs, and governments,
NGOs organizatio ions and civil society civil civil society mining/exploration
ns, civil civil society companies, civil
Protection of Protection, Reduce Ambitious Restorati Protect Reduce Protect, Regulatef
remaining Provide nutrient reduction of on: remaining overfishing reduce industries
saltmarsh, alternative inputs, green‐ remove reefs, , bycatch bycatch, operating in the
providing sources livelihoods protect, house excess prohibiton of and reduce deep‐sea. Ban
of sediment, for avoid emissions. herbivor natural reef incidental incidental deep sea fishing
potentially dependent physical Reduce es. harvests, mortality, mortality and impose a
planting native communities impacts, excess rebuild improve water ban (ship strikes, moratorium on
Key Actions species, , providie and sediment their quality, restore destructive entanglement deep‐sea mining
providing space space for conduct and nutrient predator reefs fishing , ghost gear), until technologies
for landward landward restoratio inputs, s, reduce practices, reduce free of impacts
migration, migration; n projects improve sediment protect pollution are available.
restoring restore water loads on spawning/ (noise, Improve
hydrological hydrological quality, rocky breeding debris, environmental

1028 connections connections,

i t i
protect
f
substrate
d
areas and chemical),
t t
safety of oil and
ti
Blue Carbon and Blue Carbon Blue Link to Emergin Link to water Sustainabl Marine High % of unique,
coastal defense and coastal Carbon coastal g role in quality e seafood, wildlife unexplored
strategies against defense and defense, Blue improvement , MSC tourism, habitats and new
storms and sea strategies coastal food Carbon, biodiversity certified cultural species, potential
level rise, links to against defense provision water and coastal fisheries, benefits, for novel products
management for storms and strategies and quality protection develop ethics important in
enhancing water sea level against biodiversity and strategies. sustainabl fighting/preventin
Key Opportunities quality , food rise, links to storms strategies biodivers e g disease. Huge
provision and management and sea ity aquacultur carbon sink
biodiversity for level rise, strategie e to potential.
strategies enhancing links to s release
water quality managem pressure
, food ent for on wild
provision enhancing stocks
and water
Improved Improved Protect Provision of Enhance Improved Improved Increased Huge potential for
fisheries, fisheries, shoreline fish, d water quality, quality and connectivity discoveries and
protection from biodiversity from Protection fisheries increased quantity of among ocean new resources.
Key Benefits sea level rise and and coastal erosion from sea habitat, seafood basins, Avoidance of
storm surges, defense, and level rise recreational supply enhanced irreversible
recreational and recreation rebuilding and storm and cultural nutrient damage.
1029 cultural benefits, cultural biodiversit surges, benefits, food cycling and

1030
Many saltmarshes are filled, Alternative land uses Infrastructure Dependence on Climate Poor management of Cumulative Losses due to Slow and uncertain recovery
landward migration and infrastructure, (e.g. areas climate change change at the fisheries on remaining impacts from extinction, continued and success of, hugely costly
impeded because of lack of alternative occupied by trajectories, equatorial reefs, degraded fishing, pollution, impacts from ship restoration, which will be
infrastructure, not enough livelihoods and harbors), severe mortality with range edge of habitats, restoration habitat strikes, pollution, monumentally difficult and
sediment supply, sea level incentives for and frequent ocean warming, kelp species, costs, increased alterations, habitat alterations, expensive. Development
rise, increased communities, heat waves with ocean acidification high herbivore prevelance of disease changing changing habitats and multi‐governmental
decomposition rates with uncertainties around climate change and increased pressure and with rising water distribution food due to climate cooperation, buy‐in, and
Roadblocks rising temperatures and/or climate change cyclone activitiy. sediment temperatures. ranges, habitats change action toward this goal.
excess nutrient loading. impacts accumulation and food due to
Reverting land use. on rocky climate change
substrates

Restore hydrological flows Increase incentives Compensatory Ambitious efforts to Restore with Protect remaining reefs, Create MPAs as Create MPAs as refuge Protect what has not been
and sediment delivery, to improve restoration, mitigate climate thermal large scale restoration refuge sites, sites, safeguard damaged or destroyed and
restore native plants, management and improve water change, effective resistant efforts, defining success restore coastal migration routes, prevent further destruction in
restore transitional upland develop alternative quality, reduce restoration genotypes, with not just increased breeding/nursery restore coastal places that have. Widespread
boundaries where possible, livelihoods, local stressors technologies using reduce harvest in mind but the sites to aid breeding/nursery education on fragility of deep
increase incentives to restoration, thermal resistant sediment many other benefits recovery, develop sites to aid recovery, sea and benefits of deep sea
relocate users landscape planning genotypes, manage delivery to oyster reefs provide breeding develop breeding ecosystems, strengthen
for landward for resilience rocky habitats programs for programs for critically regulation, decrease
Remedial Actions migration critically endangered species pollution, recycle products
endangered that require rare earth
species metals.

1031
1032 1
1033

1
1034 Figure Legends
1035
1036 Figure 1. Global Pressures on Marine Life. Many human pressures commenced well before the
1037 industrial revolution, and a number of those peaked in the 1980’s and are slowing down at
1038 present (with much regional variation), with the notable exceptions of pollution and climate
1039 change. Initially, hunting and fishing were followed by deforestation, leading to excess sediment
1040 export, and direct destruction of coastal habitat. Pollution (synthetic fertilizer, plastic and
1041 industrial chemicals) and climate change represent more recent threats. Hunting of megafauna
1042 has been heavily regulated or banned and fishing is now progressing toward more sustainable
1043 harvest in many regions, while regulatory frameworks are reducing some forms of pollution.
1044 Climate change, caused by greenhouse gas emissions accumulated since the onset of the
1045 industrial revolution, became sizeable, against background variability, in the 1960’s and is
1046 escalating as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate. As a net result of these cumulative
1047 human pressures, marine biodiversity experienced a major decline by the end of the 20th
1048 Century.
1049
1050 Figure 2. Global growth of restoration interventions. Distribution and growth of Marine
1051 Protected Areas (left panels) and ecosystem restoration projects (right panels). Numbers within
1052 symbols represent aggregated restoration projects where location was not provided (cf. Suppl.
1053 Information 1 for detailed examples, Suppl. Information 2 for data sources and Suppl. Videos V1
1054 and V2 for animation of growth over time).
1055
1056 Figure 3. Recovery trends of marine populations showing (a) Current population trends in
1057 scientifically assessed fisheries stocks based on the ratio of the annual biomass B relative to the
1058 biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield, BMSY; (b) percent of assessed marine
1059 mammal populations showing increasing or decreasing population trends or no change; (c)
1060 sample recovery trajectories of recovering species and habitats from different parts of the world;
1061 note that units were adjusted to a common scale by multiplying (*) or dividing (/) as indicated in
1062 the legend, numbers at the end of the legends indicate initial count at the beginning of time
1063 series; and (d) range of recovery times for marine populations and habitats and mean ± 95%
1064 confidence limits (cl) recovery times for marine ecosystems. Lines indicate reported range. See
1065 Suppl. Information 2 for details on data sources and methods and Table S3 for data sources for
1066 panel d.
1067
1068 Figure. 4. Recovery projections for assessed fish stocks. (a) Trajectories of fisheries stock
1069 biomass (B) relative to the biomass supporting maximum sustainable yield (BMSY, the ratio
1070 denoted B/BMSY), over time based on scientific assessment of 371 globally distributed fish
1071 stocks in the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database (version 4.44). Open circles give the
1072 biomass-weighted global average of stock B/BMSY, asterisks represent years without sufficient
1073 data, red and green lines represent four idealized future scenarios (BMSY values were taken
1074 from stock assessments where available and estimated as 50% of the maximum historical
1075 biomass otherwise; see Suppl. Information S2). (b) Frequency distributions for estimated
1076 recovery times to BMSY for 172 stocks that are currently depleted to below BMSY. Projections
1077 refer to three scenarios, corresponding to no fishing, fishing at 60% or 90% of fishing pressure
1078 associated with maximum sustainable yield (FMSY). Projections show that under various
1079 scenarios of reduced fishing pressure (F<FMSY) and different productivity regimes, the majority
1080 of fish stocks could recover to BMSY with high probability before 2040. Note that recovery to
1
1081 virgin biomass (B0) would take much longer. Solid lines give the median and hashed lines the
1082 mean estimate of years to recovery. Productivity for each stock in panels b-d was fixed at mean
1083 stock-specific historical productivity. See Supplementary Information S2 for details of data
1084 sources and methods.
1085

2
Rebuilding Saltmarshes Mangroves Seagrass Coral reefs Kelp Oyster reefs Fisheries Megafauna Deep-sea
Protect species
Harvest wisely
Protect spaces
Restore habitats
Reduce pollution
Mitigate climate
change
Rcovery targets Substantial to Substantial Substanti Partial to Substant Substantial to Substantia Substantial Partial to
by 2050 Complete to Complete al to Substantiial ial to Complete l to Substantial
Government, civil Government, C l
Governm Governmen C
Governml Government, C l
Governme Government, International sea
society and civil society ent, civil t, tourism ent, fishers nt, fishers fishers bed authority,
NGOs and NGOs society operators, fishers organizations, organizatio organizations state and federal
and fishers organizat NGOs and ns and , NGOs, and governments,
NGOs organizatio ions and civil society civil civil society mining/exploration
Key Actors ns, civil civil society companies, civil
society and society society, fishing
NGOs industry.

Protection of Protection, Reduce Ambitious Restorati Protect Reduce Protect, Regulate

remaining Provide nutrient reduction of on: remaining overfishing reduce industries
saltmarsh, alternative inputs, green- remove reefs, , bycatch bycatch, operating in the
providing sources livelihoods protect, house excess prohibiton of and reduce deep-sea. Ban
of sediment, for avoid emissions. herbivor natural reef incidental incidental deep sea fishing
potentially dependent physical Reduce es. harvests, mortality, mortality and impose a
planting native communities impacts, excess rebuild improve water ban (ship strikes, moratorium on
species, , providie and sediment their quality, restore destructive entanglement deep-sea mining
providing space space for conduct and nutrient predator reefs fishing , ghost gear), until technologies
for landward landward restoratio inputs, s, reduce practices, reduce free of impacts
migration, migration; n projects improve sediment protect pollution are available.
Key Actions restoring restore water loads on spawning/ (noise, Improve
hydrological hydrological quality, rocky breeding debris, environmental
connections connections, protect substrate areas and chemical), safety of oil and
maintain reefs, s and nursery protect gas operations.
sediment rebuild food plant grounds, breeding/haul Develop facilities
supply, webs, and kelps remove out sites, to test
restore restore perverse safegard technologies prior
damaged damaged incentives migration to real-ocean
forests reefs routes, deployment.
reduce
competition
with fisheries
Blue Carbon and Blue Carbon Blue Link to Emergin Link to water Sustainabl Marine High % of unique,
coastal defense and coastal Carbon coastal g role in quality e seafood, wildlife unexplored
strategies against defense and defense, Blue improvement , MSC tourism, habitats and new
storms and sea strategies coastal food Carbon, biodiversity certified cultural species, potential
level rise, links to against defense provision water and coastal fisheries, benefits, for novel products
management for storms and strategies and quality protection develop ethics important in
enhancing water sea level against biodiversity and strategies. sustainabl fighting/preventin
Key Opportunities quality , food rise, links to storms strategies biodivers e g disease. Huge
provision and management and sea ity aquacultur carbon sink
biodiversity for level rise, strategie e to potential.
strategies enhancing links to s release
water quality managem pressure
, food ent for on wild
provision enhancing stocks
and water
Improved Improved Protect Provision of Enhance Improved Improved Increased Huge potential for
fisheries, fisheries, shoreline fish, d water quality, quality and connectivity discoveries and
protection from biodiversity from Protection fisheries increased quantity of among ocean new resources.
Key Benefits sea level rise and and coastal erosion from sea habitat, seafood basins, Avoidance of
storm surges, defense, and level rise recreational supply enhanced irreversible
recreational and recreation rebuilding and storm and cultural nutrient damage.
cultural benefits, cultural biodiversit surges, benefits, food cycling and
Many saltmarshes are filled, Alternative land uses Infrastructure Dependence on Climate Poor management of Cumulative Losses due to Slow and uncertain recovery
landward migration and infrastructure, (e.g. areas climate change change at the fisheries on remaining impacts from extinction, continued and success of, hugely costly
impeded because of lack of alternative occupied by trajectories, equatorial reefs, degraded fishing, pollution, impacts from ship restoration, which will be
infrastructure, not enough livelihoods and harbors), severe mortality with range edge of habitats, restoration habitat strikes, pollution, monumentally difficult and
sediment supply, sea level incentives for and frequent ocean warming, kelp species, costs, increased alterations, habitat alterations, expensive. Development
rise, increased communities, heat waves with ocean acidification high herbivore prevelance of disease changing changing habitats and multi-governmental
decomposition rates with uncertainties around climate change and increased pressure and with rising water distribution food due to climate cooperation, buy-in, and
Roadblocks rising temperatures and/or climate change cyclone activitiy. sediment temperatures. ranges, habitats change action toward this goal.
excess nutrient loading. impacts accumulation and food due to
Reverting land use. on rocky climate change
substrates

Restore hydrological flows Increase incentives Compensatory Ambitious efforts to Restore with Protect remaining reefs, Create MPAs as Create MPAs as refuge Protect what has not been
and sediment delivery, to improve restoration, mitigate climate thermal large scale restoration refuge sites, sites, safeguard damaged or destroyed and
restore native plants, management and improve water change, effective resistant efforts, defining success restore coastal migration routes, prevent further destruction in
restore transitional upland develop alternative quality, reduce restoration genotypes, with not just increased breeding/nursery restore coastal places that have. Widespread
boundaries where possible, livelihoods, local stressors technologies using reduce harvest in mind but the sites to aid breeding/nursery education on fragility of deep
increase incentives to restoration, thermal resistant sediment many other benefits recovery, develop sites to aid recovery, sea and benefits of deep sea
relocate users landscape planning genotypes, manage delivery to oyster reefs provide breeding develop breeding ecosystems, strengthen
for landward for resilience rocky habitats programs for programs for critically regulation, decrease
Remedial Actions migration critically endangered species pollution, recycle products
endangered that require rare earth
species metals.
 International
Debate on whether industrialized fishing could Convention for the CITES (1975)
lead to permanent exhaustion of fish stocks Prevention of IWC Whaling UN Conference on
(International Fisheries Exhibition, London, Pollution from Ships Moratorium (1982) Environment and
1983) Electric and gas street MARPOL (1973) UNCLOS (1982) Development (1992)
lights reduced hunting UNCBD (1993) UN SDGs (2015) and Paris
for animal oil Geneva Convention on Agreement of UNFCC (2016)
IPCC established
the Law of the Sea (1958) Adopted
(1988)

Hunting Maximum
Fishing
High

Pressure Scale
Deforestation

Habitat loss Medium

Fertilizer, Plastic and Synthetic Chemicals
Climate Change
Low

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2020

Onset of large-scale industrial Climate dynamics can no longer be Warming-induced

Steam Engines Petroleum industry production of fertilizer, plastic reproduced without invoking human global coral
applied to fishing develops and synthetic chemicals perturbation bleaching events
boats

Sharp Increase in Pressures Efforts to Slow Down

and Decline in Marine Life Pressures Opportunity to Rebuild
Marine Life
 a) Fish Stock Trends in B/BMSY (after 2000) Marine Mammal Population Trends
b)
90

90
N= 95 N= 12

N= 67 N= 22
N= 23 N= 6
N= 85 N= 38
45

45
0

0
N= 5 N= 5
N= 66 N= 14 N= 7 N= 12
−45

−45
N= 22
Positive Increasing
Negative Decreasing
No Change No Change
−90

−90
−180 −90 0 90 180 −180 −90 0 90 180

c)

50 > 60
10000 Humpback whale (n), E Australia - 400
d)

Recovery Time (years)

9000 Sea otter (n), W Canada - 70
Number of individuals (n) or area (ha)

40
8000
Northern elephant seal (births), W- 13
7000 US

30
Guadelupe fur seal (n), Mexico - 51
6000

20
Green turtles (n*10), Japan - 1190
5000
Leatherback turtle (n*10), Virgin - 190

10
4000 Islands
Seagrass area (ha*100), - 0.1 0
3000
Connecticut U.S.
Whales

Sea turtles

Pinnipeds

Exploited fish

Exploited invertebrates

Sea birds

Seagrass

Oyster reefs

Salt marshes

Mangroves

Coral reefs

Deep-sea corals and sponges

Global Marine Ecosystems

2000 Baltic Sea Cormorans (n pairs * - 3304
20)

(mean ± 95 cl)
1000 Baltic Sea Grey Seals (n x 3)
- 3645
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
 a
1.6
●

● ●
●
●
● ●
1.2
B/BMSY

●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ● ● ● ● ●
0.8

● ● High Productivity / Low Fishing

● ● ● ● ●
● Low Productivity / Low Fishing
●
● High Productivity / High Fishing
Low Productivity / High Fishing
0.4

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

b
F=0 F = 0.6F MSY F = 0.9F MSY
0.20

0.20

0.20
0.15

0.15

0.15
Frequency
0.10

0.10

0.10
0.05

0.05

0.05
0.00

0.00

0.00
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year of Recovery to B MSY