climate

Article
Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends in Southern Ethiopia
Abrham Belay 1,2 , Teferi Demissie 3 , John W. Recha 3, * , Christopher Oludhe 1,4 , Philip M. Osano 2 ,
Lydia A. Olaka 1,5 , Dawit Solomon 3 and Zerihun Berhane 6

1 Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O. Box 30197-00100, Kenya;
[email protected] (A.B.); [email protected] (C.O.); [email protected] (L.A.O.)
2 Stockholm Environment Institute-Africa, World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi P.O. Box 30677, Kenya;
[email protected]
3 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS),
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi P.O. Box 30709-00100, Kenya;
[email protected] (T.D.); [email protected] (D.S.)
4 Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya
5 Department of Geology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya
6 Center for African and Asian Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia;
[email protected]
* Correspondence: [email protected]

Abstract: This study investigated the trends and variability of seasonal and annual rainfall and
temperature data over southern Ethiopia using time series analysis for the period 1983–2016. Standard
Anomaly Index (SAI), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitations Concentration Index (PCI), and
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to examine rainfall variability and develop drought
indices over southern Ethiopia. Temporal changes of rainfall trends over the study period were



detected using Mann Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed that the


region experienced considerable rainfall variability and change that resulted in extended periods
Citation: Belay, A.; Demissie, T.;
of drought and flood events within the study period. Results from SAI and SPI indicated an inter-
Recha, J.W.; Oludhe, C.; Osano, P.M.;
annual rainfall variability with the proportions of years with below and above normal rainfall being
Olaka, L.A.; Solomon, D.; Berhane, Z.
estimated at 56% and 44% respectively. Results from the Mann Kendall trend test indicated an
Analysis of Climate Variability and
increasing trend of annual rainfall, Kiremt (summer) and Bega (dry) seasons whereas the Belg (spring)
Trends in Southern Ethiopia. Climate
2021, 9, 96. https://doi.org/
season rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05). The annual rate of change for mean,
10.3390/cli9060096 maximum and minimum temperatures was found to be 0.042 ◦ C, 0.027 ◦ C, and 0.056 ◦ C respectively.
The findings from this study can be used by decision-makers in taking appropriate measures and
Academic Editor: Forrest M. Hoffman interventions to avert the risks posed by changes in rainfall and temperature variability including
extremes in order to enhance community adaptation and mitigation strategies in southern Ethiopia.
Received: 27 March 2021
Accepted: 28 May 2021 Keywords: climate change; climate variability; rainfall; temperature; mann kendall test; standard
Published: 15 June 2021 precipitation index; coefficient of variation

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published maps and institutional affil- 1. Introduction
iations.
Climate change is consideredone of the biggest challenges facing the world in the
21st century [1–3]. Notably, climate change and variability are as a result of either natural
causes or anthropogenic (human) activities. The natural causes include changes in solar
activities, orbital parameters and volcanic eruptions, while the anthropogenic causes arise from
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
various activities that emit greenhouse gases [4]. To combat this global environmental problem,
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the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) approved the
This article is an open access article
Paris agreement which is a legally binding framework to tackle global climate change. The
distributed under the terms and
framework focuses on low carbon development strategies with policy obligations for all the
conditions of the Creative Commons
countries to keep the level of global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius [5,6].
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
Climate change is severely affecting many developing countries whose main economic
4.0/).
activities largely depend on climate-sensitive sectors with low adaptative capacity [7].

Climate 2021, 9, 96. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9060096 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate

Climate 2021, 9, 96 2 of 17

A majority of the Sub-Saharan countries, including Ethiopia, are highly impacted upon by
the adverse effects of weather and climate extremes resulting in low agricultural production
and food insecurity [8]. The climate of Ethiopia has changed over the last few decades with
temperatures being found to have increased by about 0.37 ◦ C over the last four decades [9].
A decreasing rainfall trend have also been observed in Ethiopia since the 1990s [10,11]
and this decline has affected considerably the agricultural production as well as water
availability in the country. The natural mode of climate variability associated with El Niño-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as increase in anthropogenic activities has greatly
contributed to the observed changes inrainfall and temperature within the country [12,13].
Previous studies have shown that climate variability and change have exerted a
significant impact on the Ethiopian economy, particularly in the agriculture sector which
is rainfall-dependent and highly dominated by traditional agricultural practices [14,15].
Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy and contributes about 40% of
the GDP, 80% of total employment, and 90% of exports [15]. Climate change-induced
impacts have greatly affected Ethiopia’s economic growth. For instance, the country
experienced a 2–9% decline in economic performance between 1991–2010 due to the
impacts of climate-related extremes [16]. Climate variability and change have significantly
impacted the economic growth of the country resulting in a 10% decline of its GDP from the
proposed targets and has increased income inequality by 20% [17]. Studies conducted by
Gebreegziabher et al. [18] and Zewdu et al. [19] have revealed that the Ethiopian agriculture
production is predicted to decline by as much as 6% to 32.5% as a consequence of climate
change impacts between 2030–2050 compared with the current outputs which will make
the country be dependent on food aids. [19]. A study conducted by Zewdu et al. [19] gave
a detailed focus on the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture but did not
provide a detailed overview of the observed climate trends and variabilities in Ethiopia.
This therefore implies that further studies are needed in order to determine the observed
changes in climate over the region and explore appropriate adaptation strategies.
Recent literature revealed that rainfall variability over East Africa is mainly caused
by the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceanic interaction process such as El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), other large scale atmospheric phenom-
ena such as the Inter-Tropical Convergent Zone (ITCZ) including upper level winds such
as Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and high pressure systems in the Indian and At-
lantic oceans [20–24]. Investigating the historical climate trends and future projections for
Ethiopia can be a complex exercise due to the rapid changes in topography that varies
from sea level to about 1290–3000 m above sea level (masl) in which the highest moun-
tain reaches 4533 masl and consequently the climate varies from semi-desert lowlands
to wettest highland areas [25]. The rainfall patterns of the country are highly variable
where some areas have only one rainy season while other areas experience two or more
rainy seasons [26]. Recent studies conducted in East Africa particularly in Ethiopia, on
multidecadal variability of climate revealed mixed results.Various studies have shown
declining trends of annual rainfall patterns in different parts of the country while other
studies depicted increasing rainfall trends [13,21,25,27–29]. Rowell et al. [13] affirmed that
Indian Ocean Sea Surface temperatures (SSTs) are the main cause of the East African rainfall
at longer time scales.
According to Cheung et al. [30], trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall for
over 134 stations in 13 watersheds zones in Ethiopia indicated a significant decrease in the
Kiremt (June–September) rainfall for most of the watersheds located in the Southwestern
and Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Araro et al. [31] showed that changes in the trends of
temperature within highlands and lowlands were both positive and negative respectively.
Asfaw et al. [28] conducted a time series analysis of rainfall amount and temperature in
northern Ethiopia. The results showed an increasing trend of drought years with decreasing
trends of both Belg and Kiremt rainfall patterns while changes in temperature showed an
increasing trend. Shawul and Chakma [29] analyzed extreme rainfall indices and long-term
rainfall variability in the upper Awash Basin which showed a high spatial and temporal
Climate 2021, 9, 96 3 of 17

variability of rainfall and exhibited lower rainfall concentration in the Basin. Benti and
Abara [27] conducted a study in Masha district in Southern Ethiopia and reported that
the annual rainfall is expected to significantly decline in the coming 35 years while the
annual mean temperature will increase. The study conducted by Wagesho et al. [32] on the
annual and temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia showed that the trend of annual
and Kiremt rainfall significantly decreased in northern and western parts of Ethiopia while
annual rainfall distribution showed an increasing trend in the eastern parts of the country.
Gummadi et al. [33] analyzed spatio-temporal variability of rainfall and extreme
events in Ethiopia and clearly showed that Southern Ethiopia has experienced extreme
rainfall events. The study suggested that a robust trend analysis would help to better
understand the future projection of climate in the area. A context-specific study on climate
trends and variability was also recommended. The rainy season of Ethiopia is determined
mainly by ENSO and local climate indicators [33]. The central highlands and northwestern
part of Ethiopia had recorded decreasing rainfall patterns during the cropping season [28].
The study used pixel-based Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Vegetation Condition Index
(VCI) and the finding showed a significant countrywide drought had been recorded during
El Niño 2009 and 2015 periods in the country.
In Ethiopia, El Niño creates drier conditions in various parts of the country which
affected the planting season from June to September [34]. During the 2015 El Niño pe-
riod, the rain was below average and farmers were forced to shift their planting season
because 50–90% of annual rainfall comes from the “Kirmet and Belg” rainy season [25,35].
Ethiopia has one main rainy season that occurs from June to September and a secondary
rainy season from February to May. Some regions in the south part of the country such
as Borena benefit from the small rainfall during the October-December season. Accord-
ing to the Ethiopian National Meterological Agency (NMA), the average annual national
rainfall pattern remained constant between 1951 and 2006 while Kiremt and Belg rainfall
have shown highly varying patterns. Most studies conducted in Ethiopia depict inconsis-
tences in reporting issues of climate change in Ethiopia while regional studies on climate
variability and change including rainfall and temperature trends would be very useful
in designing and implementing strong national adaptation plans as well as establishing
an early warning system for the country. A few studies conducted in the region have
revealed the effect of rainfall variability on agricultural activities such as crop damage
due to erratic rainfall, floods, drought occurrence, incidences of pests and diseases [19,25].
Similarly, Wodaje et al. [22] indicated there was considerable spatial rainfall variability in
the region. Information on rainfall anomalies, seasonal variations, and extreme rainfall and
temperature trends over the study area are critically lacking. Undertaking trend analysis
and variability of rainfall patterns is vital for accurate prediction of climate extremes and
taking corresponding adaptation and mitigation measures [2]. In this study, the Bilatie
sub-watershed in the southern region of Ethiopia was selected in order to determine the
trends and variability of rainfall and temperature in the area. Even though a few studies
on climate change and variability have been conducted in the region as discussed above,
still there is a gap that these studies did not address as provided in the following questions:
(i) have rainfall and temperature trends changed over the period 1983–2016 in the study
area? (ii) how does the distribution of rainfall anomalies in the study area look like? (iii)
to what extent are the variations and distribution of seasonal and annual rainfall patterns
behavein the study area? Therefore, this study will sought to address these various gaps.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Description of the Study Area
Southern National Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) is one of the nine
regional administrations of the federal republic of Ethiopia and lies between 3.451 to
9.66 ◦ N latitude and 32.435–40.876 ◦ E longitude. The region has about fifty-six ethnic
groups, typical cultures, languages, historic sites, and livelihood systems. The region
is bordered by Kenya in the South, South Sudan in the Southwest, Gambela region in
Climate 2021, 9, 96 4 of 17

the north-west and surrounded by Oromia region in the North and East (See Figure 1).
The total area is about 106,000 km2 , which is divided into 14 administrative zones and
131 Weredas (districts) with various landscape characteristics including mountains, valleys,
and gorges [36]. According to the Central Statistics Agency [37] census, the total estimated
population of the region is about 15 million. The region has diverse climatic agro-ecological
zones from lowland to highlands and has rich water resources of lakes and rivers.

Figure 1. Map of the study area (Bilate sub-watershed) showing the drainage basin and the location
of meteorological stations.

The study was conducted in the Bilate sub-watershed which is one of the inland rivers
in southern Ethiopia that drains from the Abaya-Chamo drainage basin which covers
5625 km2 and the altitude of the watersheds range from 1300 to 3050 m above sea level [22].
The sub-watershed lies within a geographic location ranging from 6◦ 530 to 8◦ 800 N lati-
tude and from 37◦ 460 to 38◦ 190 E longitude. In the study area the annual rainfall amount
and temperature range from 972–1023 mm and 12 ◦ C–25 ◦ C in the sub watershed respec-
tively [22]. The area has a bimodal rainfall characteristic. The main rainy season (Kiremt)
rainfall extends from mid of June to the end of September whereas the short rainy season
(Belg) extends from end of February to the end of May while the dry season extends from
October to beginning of February [27]. The main livelihood of the area is characterized by
mixed crop-livestock farming systems where cereals, legumes, root crops, and perennial
crops like enset (Ensete ventricosum) are the main crops grown in the area [38].

2.2. Climate Data Sources

Rainfall and temperature data for the period 1983–2016 were obtained from various
sources. Daily temperature and rainfall for the selected stations and merged station-satellite
gridded data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia
Climate 2021, 9, 96 5 of 17

with a grid cell size of 0.05 degrees or 5.55 km × 5.55 km for the period of 1983–2016.
The stations were selected based on the relative completeness of data availability and
the length of years that fulfills the requirements of the World Metrological Organization
(WMO). It is a standard practice that a minimum of 30 years of data is required to conduct
climatological studies [22]. In addition, gridded precipitation data from the study period
1983–2016 was obtained from Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Station
(CHIRPS). CHIRPS is a unique data set available on high-resolution temporal (daily)
and spatial resolution (5 km) with quasi-global coverage and attractive to study climate
extremes over the small geographical areas [39–41]. Dinku et al. [42] validated CHIRPS
data over East Africa particularly in Ethiopia with reference to the rain gauge data and the
performance of temporal and spatial pattern of rainfall was highly correlated. In the present
study, 34 years of meteorological satellite data for the watershed is used to investigate the
recent changes in extreme rainfall and temperature across the watershed (Table 1).

Table 1. Coordinates of the selected meteorological stations in the Bilate sub-watershed.

Name of Station Lat. (N) Long. (E) Alt. (a.m.s.l) Duration

Doyogena 7◦ 200 37◦ 470 2629 1983–2016
Angacha 7◦ 200 37◦ 510 2321 1983–2016
Durame 7◦ 140 37◦ 530 2116 1983–2016
Alaba Kulito 7◦ 310 38◦ 090 1726 1983–2016
Hossana 7◦ 340 37◦ 510 2306 1983–2016
Fonko 7◦ 380 37◦ 580 2246 1983–2016

Before carrying out the analysis, the station data were inspected for any possible
presence of temporal inconsistencies and discontinuities. It was found that most of the
station-based data in the region are not continuous and do contain several missing values
for both rainfall and temperature. Due to these problems, the missing values were estimated
using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation technique which is the recommended
method for estimating missing meteorological data [43]. The IDW assumes that weather
stations that are close to each other are highly correlated with one another than those that
are located further away. As a result, the missing values are obtained from the nearest
weather station which has a relatively complete data set as the weighted average of the
observed rainfall and temperature values from the nearest station [44].
The mean annual value of the merged station-satellite gridded data, obtained from
NMA of Ethiopia, was compared with the station data in the watershed. To see whether
there is a significant difference between the merged station-satellite gridded data and
observed data in each selected station in the watershed, the F-test was computed and
found that there were no significant differences between the two data sets. As result, due
to the completeness and quality of data, merged station-satellite gridded data were used to
undertake trend analysis instead of the gauge station data so as to avoid the missing data
values that were detected in these data sets [45]. Annual rainfall and temperature data for
the watershed were calculated by combining and averaging the merged station-satellite
gridded data from 1983–2016 [30]. Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends for the
watershed were then produced as merged values that estimated the amount of rainfall and
temperature data in the particular sub-watershed unit [46].

2.3. Data Analysis Technique

Numerous tests are available to study the long-term change of climate parameters
over time. Measuring the changes of observed climate trends and variability over time
was done using different techniques which included Standardize Rainfall Anomaly Index
(SRAI) to analyze the frequency and intensity of the precipitation. Coefficient of variation
(CV) was used to estimate the seasonal and annual variation of the rainfall patterns and
Mann- Kendall (MK) trend test to detect climate trend in times series data and Standard
Climate 2021, 9, 96 6 of 17

Precipitation Index (SPI) to quantify the rainfall deficiency of the observed time scale in the
given watershed [28,38,47,48].

2.3.1. Standard Anomaly Index (SAI)

The SAI was used to calculate the negative and positive anomalies of rainfall fluc-
tuations in a certain region. It helps to identify the drought period through determining
the dry and wet years of the recording period [28,34,49–51]. This index is calculated using
equation 1 given below:

Xi − Xi
Z= (1)
S
where Z is standardized rainfall anomaly; xi is the annual rainfall for the historical record;
xi is the mean of annual rainfall and s is the standard deviation of the annual rainfall for
the historical observation of the time series.
According to Agnew and Chappel [49], classification of drought severity, extreme
drought (Z < −1.65), severe drought class (−1.28 > Z > −1.65), moderate drought class
(Z > −0.84). Standardized rainfall anomaly index spans < −2 (dry) and > 2 (wet) that
indicates extreme drought and an extreme wet year respectively [52,53].

2.3.2. Coefficient of Variation (CV)

CV was employed to detect the seasonal and annual rainfall variability for the obser-
vation period. As documented by Hare [54], the degree of rainfall variability is classified as
high (CV > 30), moderate (20 < CV > 30) and low (CV < 20). Hence the higher the value of
CV the higher the variability of rainfall in the study region and the reverse is also true. The
value of CV can be computed using Equation (2):
σ
CV = × 100 (2)
µ

where CV is the coefficient of variation, σ is the standard deviation and µ is the mean
precipitation of the recording period.

2.3.3. Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI)

PCI was used to evaluate the distribution of the monthly, seasonally and annual
distribution of rainfall. PCI is used to indicate the hydrological risks of floods and drought
occasions in the study area [55,56] and can be calculated using Equation (3) below:

∑12
i =1 pi
2
PCI = 2
(3)
(∑12
i =1 Pi )

where Pi is monthly precipitation in the month i PCI.

The PCI value of <10 represents uniform distribution of precipitation; PCI value
ranging from 11–15 indicates moderate rainfall concentration; PCI value ranging 16–20 rep-
resents the irregular distribution of rainfall in the area and any value which is above 20 unit
shows a strong irregular rainfall distribution across the area [57].

2.3.4. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

The SPI is the most widely used method of drought index to detect and characterize
meteorological drought [52,58]. SPI can be calculated for the different periods (1, 3, 6, 12,
24, and 48 months) [47]. In this study, 12 months or annual periods (SPI-12) was used.
SPI value was calculated by using Equation (4):

Xij − µij
SPIij = (4)
αij
where the SPIij represents an ith month at jth period, Xij is the observed rainfall total value
for the ith month at the jth period, µij and αij represents the long-term mean and standard
Climate 2021, 9, 96 7 of 17

deviation of the ith month and jth timescale of the selected period respectively. The study
conducted by McKee et al. [52] and Svoboda [47], SPI has different output values ranging
from −2.0 to 2.0 (Table 2)

Table 2. Standard Precipitation Indices (SPI) and their interpretation.

SPI Value Interpretation

≥2.0 Extremely wet
1.5 to 1.99 Severely wet
1.0 to 1.49 Moderately wet
0.99 to −0.99 Near normal
−1.0 to −1.49 Moderately dry
−1.5 to −1.49 Severely dry
≤−2.0 Extremely dry

2.3.5. Mann- Kendall (MK)

The MK trend test is one of the widely used methods to detect climate trend in
times series data. The details of the MK test are provided in [59,60]. The MK test is
used to detect monotonically (increasing or decreasing) trends of annual and seasonal
bases of climate parameters. To investigate the existence of long-term change for both
rainfall and temperature indices, Mann- Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s estimator were
employed. Annual and seasonal trend change detection with the MK test is less affected
by climate outliers [61,62]. However, the result of the MK test may contain some error if
auto correlation exists in the time series data. To overcome this problem, the pre-whitening
procedure was performed and there was no significant level of serial autocorrelation at all
lags and performed without any modification. Following the serial autocorrelation test, the
MK test from the Z value and trend from Sen’s slope(β) estimation was computed based
on monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall data from 1983–2016 in the Bilate watershed, and
the results are presented in Table 3.

Table 3. Summary statistics and MK trend test output for the Bilate Watershed (1983–2016).

MK Test Rainfall Trends

Variables Mean(mm) SD(mm) CV (%) Sen.’s (β)
(p-Value) Contribution (%)
January 15.02 16.53 110.04 −0.026 0.667 1.47 D
February 27.51 31.26 113.66 −0.720 0.100 * 2.69 D
March 69.27 40.42 58.35 −0.838 0.346 6.77 D
April 115.97 49.91 43.04 −0.304 0.659 11.33 D
May 126.97 50.33 39.64 −0.129 0.859 12.41 D
Jun 109.79 32.05 29.19 0.807 0.215 10.73 I
July 160.74 31.11 19.35 0.406 0.289 15.71 I
August 162.57 30.33 18.66 0.000 1.000 15.89 I
September 134.26 28.15 20.97 0.844 0.054 ** 13.12 I
October 66.30 53.16 80.19 −0.080 0.977 6.48 D
November 21.18 25.58 120.78 0.595 0.015 *** 2.06 I
December 13.67 23.78 173.97 −0.046 0.532 1.34 D
Belg 339.72 97.00 28.55 −1.843 0.027 ** 33.20 D
Kiremt 567.36 78.99 13.92 2.220 0.156 55.45 I
Bega 116.17 69.75 60.04 0.680 0.444 11.35 I
Annual 1023.24 142.0 13.94 1.136 0.702 100.00 I
Note: *, **, *** significant at 0.1, 0.5, 0.01 level; I = Increasing trend; D = decreasing trend.
Climate 2021, 9, 96 8 of 17

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Rainfall Summary Statistics
The computed summary statistics of rainfall including mean, standard deviation (SD)
rainfall distribution, and CV over the study area for the period 1983–2016 are presented in
Table 3. The mean annual rainfall was recorded as 1023.24 mm with a standard deviation
of 142.60 mm. The two months with the highest maximum monthly rainfall are July
(160.74 mm) and August (162.57 mm) which contributed 15.71% and 15.89% to the total
rainfall respectively. December and February received the least rainfall and contributed
1.34% and 1.47% to the annual rainfall respectively. The major share of the annual rainfall
was received in Kiremt (rainy season) (55.45%) and Belg (planting season) (33.20%). The
lowest amount of rainfall was received in the short rainy season (Bega) which lasts between
November to January and contributed 11.35%.

3.2. Linear Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall

The MK trend test showed that there was a statically significant increasing trend for
the month of September and November at a 5% and 1% level of significance respectively
(Table 3). While a significant decreasing trend was observed in February. There was
no significant increase in rainfall trend that was observed in June and July whereas no
significant decreasing trend was observed in March, April, and May. The monthly share
of rainfall exhibited about 57.51% positive trend and 42.49% negative trend in rainfall
amounts. On the other hand, Belg exhibited a decreasing trend at a 5% level of significance.
The spatial trend analysis for each station (not shown here) also confirms a consistent
pattern with the area-averaged trend analysis for the watershed, which is a declining
trend of the Belg rainfall in the region. Kiremt, Bega, and annual rainfall have shown non-
significant increasing trends. The result is consistent with the findings of other studies that
observed non-significant change in annual and Kiremt rainfall over Ethiopia [15,32,53,63].
The rate of change of the annual rainfall variability was recorded as 0.474mm/year while
the trend of annual rainfall was found to be statistically insignificant. These results are in
agreement with the findings made by Benti and Abara [27] who examined the trends of
annual rainfall distribution in southern Ethiopia and noted that the annual rainfall had a
statistically insignificant increasing trend since 1995–2014.
Seasonal trends are shown in Figure 2 the seasonal rainfall variability for Belg, Kiremt,
and Bega seasons was −1.935 mm/year, 1.841 mm/year and 0.568 mm/year respectively.
whereas the declining trend of Belg season was statistically significant (Table 3). The nega-
tive and positive values indicated decreasing and increasing pattern of rainfall distribution
over the observed period respectively. As depicted in Figure 2, Belg rainfall showed a
decreasing trend and significant at (p < 0.05 level). The Belg season rainfall is crucial for the
farmers as the season determines the preparation and planting activities of the farmers in
the study area.
The observed decreasing trend of the Belg rainfall might be caused by the atmospheric–
oceanic processes that influence rainfall in the region. The dynamics of global warming
caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing
trends of temperature in East Africa. A 1 ◦ C increase of annual temperature in El Niño
3.4 SST region could decrease about 79 mm/year, particularly in East Africa [64]. Following
such dry conditions, possible adaptation and mitigation measures such as conservation
agriculture and climate-smart options should be put in place [65,66].
The annual and seasonal patterns of rainfall analysis was computed using the re-
gression model (Figure 2) and the results are summarized in Table 4. The annual and
seasonal coefficient of variation computation indicate that there was a significant seasonal
rainfall variation observed at p < 0.05 level of significant (Table 4). However, annual rainfall
variations showed a non-significant increase in trend and the average rate of change of
the rainfall variation was calculated as 0.47 mm/year (Figure 3). According to Cheung
et al. [30], there were no significant changes in annual rainfall trends at the national and
watershed levels in Ethiopia. The study conducted by Ayalew et al. [26] on rainfall vari-
Climate 2021, 9, 96 9 of 17

ability and its current trends revealed that long-term patterns of rainfall did not show
significant decreasing or increasing trends but the early end of rainfall distribution has
been experienced in the recently. Decadal annual mean rainfall for 1984–1994, 1995–2005,
and 2006–2016 was recorded as 972.59 mm, 1082.39 mm, and 1021.53 mm respectively.
This shows that from 1995 to 2016, rainfall pattern had a decreasing trend and the average
deficiency of rainfall since 1995–2016 was about 60.86mm per year and result concur with
findings of recent studies made in Ethiopia and east Africa region [67,68].

Figure 2. Seasonal rainfall trends over the observed period for 1983–2016.

Table 4. Linear regression result of seasonal precipitation (1983–2016).

Change in % of Annual
Season p-Value R2 Mean (mm) CV
Rainfall/mm/Year Rainfall
Kiremt 1.841 0.156 0.054 567.36 13.92 55.45
Belg −1.935 0.027 0.039 339.72 28.55 33.20
Bega 0.568 0.444 0.006 116.17 60.04 11.35
Annual 0.474 0.72 0.001 1023.24 13.94 100

Figure 3. Annual trend of rainfall between 1983–2016.

The rainfall in the study area occurs in the Kiremt and Belg season. The monthly
rainfall anomaly was computed to identify the anomalous dry and wet periods in the
observed time scale. The monthly anomalies findings are presented in Figure 4. The main
rainy season Kiremt (summer) rainfall starts from June to September while the small rainy
Climate 2021, 9, 96 10 of 17

season Belg (Spring) begins from February to May. As shown in Figure 4, the rainfall
anomaly index result captured the seasonal rainfall distribution for both Kiremt and Bega
rains which experiences unpredictable and irregular rainfall patterns and affects both crop
and livestock production [15].

Figure 4. Standardized rainfall anomalies from a monthly mean calculated for all years and seasons (1983–2016).

The study region experienced high seasonal rainfall variability from below to above-
average rainfall distribution. This variability may be attributed to the seasonal movement of
the inter-tropical convergent zone (ITCZ) and warm and cold ENSO episodes (El Niño/La
Niña) event [69].

3.3. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall

The coefficient of variation (CV) of the seasonal rainfall revealed a high (60.04%) and
moderate (28.55%) rainfall variability during Bega and Belg seasons respectively (Table 3).
On the other hand, annual rainfall had less coefficient of variation, shown that interannual
rainfall (13.94%) variability was observed during 1983–2016 in the study area. Similarly,
the months of July, August, September had less rainfall variation and the remaining
months experienced high rainfall variation (See Table 3). This is consistent with the recent
studies [28,38,70], which identified a strong variability and unpredictability of the seasonal
and annual trends of climate in Ethiopia. The annual rainfall anomalies from 1983–2016 in
the study area are presented in Figure 5. The standard rainfall anomalies were computed
and the result indicated that there were positive and negative anomalies, which implied
the presence of inter-annual rainfall variability across the observed time series. The highest
positive anomaly (+1.74) was observed in the year 2001 and the highest negative anomaly
(−2.62) was observed in the year 2015. The year 2015 experienced the highest negative
anomaly due to the occurrence of the El Niño which affected the main livelihood of the
rural people in different parts of Ethiopia [69]. Recent literature indicated that about twelve
extreme historical droughts have been recorded in Ethiopia and affected the economic
development of the country [14,15,53,71].
The drought incidents in Ethiopia negatively affected the livelihoods of millions of
people. The major droughts in Ethiopia ecorded in the last three decades were related to
ENSO events. In Ethiopia, El Niño events in 1987, 1991, 2001, 2009, and 2015 coincided with
an extended drought condition from April to November which covers the main cropping
season of the country. The annual rainfall anomaly was computed and drought years in
the study region detected negative anomalies of 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1994,
1997/8, 1999, 2000, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016 which are coinciding with the El Niño
events. The results are supported by the recent studies on the effect of El Niño events
on Ethiopian rainfall distribution and its outcomes [34]. The recent 2015 El Niño related
drought reduced annual household consumption by 8% and this created poor resilient
systems among rural communities in Ethiopia [72].
Climate 2021, 9, 96 11 of 17

Figure 5. Standard annual rainfall anomalies of the watershed (1983–2016).

Precipitation Concentration Index was calculated based on a different class of PCI to

measure the distribution of rainfall on a seasonally and annual basis over the watershed
(Table 5). As presented in Table 5, 94% of the studied period experienced moderate rainfall
distribution and about 6% of the rainfall distribution was irregular.

Table 5. Years of the different PCI class in the study watershed (1984–2016).

PCI Categories Years Percentage Seasons

<10 Uniform rainfall distribution 1 (2007) 2.94 Kiremt (PCI = 8.76)
Belg (PCI = 12.09),
Between 10 and 15 Moderate rainfall distribution 31 91.18
Annual (PCI = 13.17)
Between 16 and 20 An irregular rainfall distribution 2 (1984,2012) 5.88 Bega (PCI = 17.09)
>20 Strong erratic rainfall distribution 0 0

The annual mean precipitation concentration index revealed a moderate rainfall

distribution experienced in the study sub-watershed and the dry season had an irregular
rainfall distribution compared with the wet seasons in the study area (Table 5).

3.4. Analysis of Drought in the Watershed

The results of the SPI values for the watershed are presented in Figure 6. The area
experienced wet to extremely dry years. For instance, wet (1.5 to 1.99) year was experienced
in 2001 and moderately wet (1.0 to 1.49) years were experienced in 1983, 1993, and 2011.
On the other hand, moderate dry (−1.0 to −1.49) year was observed in 1985, 2009 and
2012 whereas extreme dry (≤−2.0) years were recorded in the 1984 and 2015. The rest of
the years in the watershed exhibited under below normal rainfall distribution. The result
agrees with the recent studies that the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing
over time in Ethiopia [29,73].
From the SPI findings presented in Figure 6, it is evident that most of the drought
years were associated with the El Nino events whereas wet years coincided with La Nina
years. For example, the recent 2015 year caused by the El Nino event was considered as
one of the driest years in the history of Ethiopia, and the Belg and Kiremt seasons were
highly affected. As result, crops failed in the field, livestock died and millions of people
have remained food insecure [25,53,74].
The monthly SPI was analyzed and the results are depicted in Figure 7. The SPI-1-
month value identified as the wet and drought month’s happened in the study area and it
is showing the variation of rainfall distribution across the watershed. The driest months
were observed in April 1984, July 1987, August 1986, May 1989, Jun 1995, March 2000, Jun
Climate 2021, 9, 96 12 of 17

2014, April, and June 2015. These dry months with respective years are concurring with
the drought history of Ethiopia caused by the El Niño event [72].

Figure 6. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for Annual rainfall series (1984–2016).

Figure 7. Standard precipitation index (SPI) result for monthly time scales in the watershed.

The 2015 drought year occurred in East Africa affecting Ethiopia caused by the El Nino
event affected Belg (March, April, May), and Kiremt (June, July, August, and September)
seasons which were received below normal rainfall, and this was also experienced in
northern and southern eastern Ethiopia [53]. Following such drought years, both crop
livestock production were highly affected in this period and this was due to the fact that
the Belg and Kiremt seasons are considered as the main cropping seasons in most part of
Ethiopia. On the other hand the historical monthly SPI value in Figure 7 indicate that excess
rainfall distribution were observed in February 1990, December 1989 and 2002, November
1997, 2008, and August 2010 [25].
Climate 2021, 9, 96 13 of 17

3.5. Analysis of Temperature Trends

The mean annual temperature in the study area for the period was 18.8 ◦ C and the
mean maximum and mean minimum temperature were 25.2 ◦ C and 12.4 ◦ C respectively
(Figure 8). Decadal analysis of the mean maximum temperatures from 1983 to 1993, 1994
to 2005, and 2006 to 2016 was as 24.97 ◦ C, 25.17 ◦ C, and 25.49 ◦ C while the mean minimum
temperatures were 11.64 ◦ C, 12.42 ◦ C, and 12.83 ◦ C respectively. This analysis showed sig-
nificant (p < 0.05) increasing trends for both mean maximum and minimum temperature in
the study area. The rate of increase for mean annual, maximum and minimum temperature
was as 0.042 ◦ C/yr, 0.027 ◦ C, and 0.056 ◦ C per year respectively (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Annual variations of Temperature trends for (a) Maximum, (b) Minimum and (c) Mean over the study area
(1983–2016).
Climate 2021, 9, 96 14 of 17

The minimum temperature increase trend was greater than max temperature trend
of the study area for the last 34 years (Figure 8). These findings are similar to studies
in the region that, have showed that there has been an increasing trend in the average
annual temperature [10,75], and annual maximum and minimum temperature [27,28] in
Ethiopia. The increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in the country has
devastating effects on crop farmers because 80% of the country’s population is farmers who
are depending on rain fed agriculture [75]. Additionally, climate projections suggest that
the annual temperature trends would be higher in the future. Thus there is need to develop
adaptation and mitigation measures in the various sectors of the economy specifically
agriculture, water, energy and health.

4. Summary and Conclusions

This study comprehensively analyzed temporal variability and the monotonic trend
of rainfall distribution in southern Ethiopia. The study area has two rainfall seasons, Kiremt
and Belg. Kiremt is the main rainy season which accounts for 55% of the annual rainfall,
and Belg contributes 32%. The annual mean rainfall in the region was 1023.24 mm with the
standard deviation and coefficient of variation 142.60 mm and 19.94% respectively. The
coefficient of variation and precipitation concentration index showed rainfall variability
and irregular distribution.
Large variation was observed among seasons in the observing period. The SAI and
SPI indices showed similar drought years with the proportions of years with below and
above average rainfall distribution anomalies of 55.90% and 44.10% respectively. The
Mann Kendall trend analysis result revealed an increasing trend for annual Kiremt and Bega
seasons whereas the Belg season significantly declined (at p < 0.05 significance level). The
rate of change for annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature in the study area was
0.042 ◦ C, 0.027 ◦ C, and 0.056 ◦ C respectively. Accordingly, decadal mean rainfall amount
from 1984–1994, 1995–2005, and 2006–2016 was recorded as 972.59 mm, 1082.39 mm, and
1021.53 mm respectively. This clearly shows a decreasing rainfall trend from 1995 to 2016,
was about 60.86 mm per year. This reduction of rainfall in the study area could harm crop
production, forage production for the livestock feed, and food security. Decadal analysis of
the mean maximum and mean minimum temperature from 1983 to 1993, 1994 to 2005, and
2006 to 2016 was calculated as 24.97 ◦ C, 25.17 ◦ C, and 25.49 ◦ C for maximum temperature
and 11.64 ◦ C, 12.42 ◦ C, and 12.83 ◦ C for minimum temperature for the last three decades
respectively. This analysis confirms increasing trends for both mean maximum and mean
minimum temperature in the study area. The increasing temperature over the study
areas create severe water loss due to evaporation and this affects agriculture and livestock
production, domestic water supply, and municipal services. The study concludes that
there was a significant variation of rainfall and temperature through the observing period.
Rainfall variation could cause flooding and outbreak of human and livestock diseases and
conservation agriculture practice is imperative for overcoming the problem. The study
also found that the SAI and SPI result are consistent with the drought years in the past
which has been linked with the ENSO event. The study revealed that extreme flooding
and drought mitigation measures in the study area should be implemented. In addition,
the study recommends the provision of timely and accurate climate information such as
seasonal forecasts, early warning systems and this requires a holistic understanding of
the impact of climate change on smallholder farmers’ livelihoods. Therefore, this study
calls for policy-driven actions to overcome the challenges of climate-changing impact
by transforming the climate-sensitive livelihood systems into climate-smart options. We
also recommend future studies to expand the geographical area that includes the entire
southern regions.

Author Contributions: A.B.: Conceptualization, data collection, statistical analysis, and writing—
original draft preparation. T.D.: Conceptualization, investigation, data collection, statistical analysis
support, writing—review and editing. J.W.R.: Conceptualization, investigation, analysis support,
writing review and editing. C.O.: Conceptualization, investigation supervision, writing—review and
Climate 2021, 9, 96 15 of 17

editing. P.M.O.: Funding acquisition, supervision, writing—review and editing. L.A.O.: Conceptual-
ization, investigation, supervision, writing—review and editing. Z.B.: Supervision, writing—review
and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. D.S.:
Funding acquisition, writing—review and editing.
Funding: This research was financially supported through CCAFS-EC grant reference: 2000002575
for the project on Building Livelihoods and Resilience to Climate Change in East and West Africa:
Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) for large-scale implementation of Climate-Smart
Agriculture. The funds are administered by the International Fund for Agricultural Development
(IFAD), Rome Italy while the project is implemented by Alliance Bioversity-CIAT. This study was also
financially supported through a grant from the World Bank “Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate
Research for Africa (AICCRA)” ESA regional project (Grant No. D7540) signed between CIAT and
the International Development Association (IDA). Additional fieldwork support was provided by
the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) through the Stockholm Environment Insti-
tute (SEI) Regional Engagement Fund for Africa”and the Deutscher Academischer Austaushdenist
(DAAD) through World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF).
Institutional Review Board Statement: The study was conducted according to the guidelines of the
Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Institutional Review Board (or Ethics Committee) of the
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), on 19 March 2018.
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study
in Bilate sub-watershed, Southern National Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR), Ethiopia.
Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the
corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to confidentiality requirements of the
funding organisations for the project.
Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for
providing the required climate data. We would like also to thanks Habitamu Taddese for producing
the study area map.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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