Global ETF Market Trends 2028
Global ETF Market Trends 2028
Overview 4
PwC surveyed more than 70 executives from around the world in 2023, using a structured questionnaire. Over 80% of the
participants were exchange-traded fund (ETF) managers or sponsors. The remaining participants were made up of service
providers, market makers and other asset managers.
The participating firms come from the four main regions of the global ETF market:
21%
Canada
26%
Europe
36% 17%
United States
Asia Pacific
The diversity of our sample allowed us to capture a broad range of views on the direction of the ETF market, both globally and
regionally.
We would like to thank all the ETF managers, service providers, market makers and other asset managers who took part in the
survey for sharing their valuable insights.
Welcome to ETFs 2028: Shaping the Future. The report explores the latest trends and future outlook in today’s increasingly
diverse, disruptive and fast-growing global and regional ETF markets.
It has just been over ten years since we published The next 25% year-to-year to reach a new record of almost $11.5 trillion
generation of ETFs: Why every asset manager needs an ETF at the end of 2023. The continued growth and even greater
strategy. Our 2013 report not only anticipated rapid growth opportunities ahead are reflected in our survey results, with
in ETF assets under management (AuM) worldwide, but also survey participants predicting global ETF AuM to reach at
an acceleration in innovation and diversification as investors least $19.2 trillion by June 2028. This would represent a 5 year
demanded greater customisation and product choice. CAGR of 13.5%. While we view this number as conservative,
this far outstrips the anticipated 5% CAGR projected for the
The clear question for asset managers who were still reluctant to asset and wealth management industry’s AuM as a whole in the
offer ETFs at the time was “how much longer can you afford to five years ended 2027.
sit on the sidelines?”
No time to stand still
Roll forward 10 years later and the number of ETF issuers has
more than doubled since 2013 to reach 582, with over 60% of With the unprecedented pace of change due to technological
the world’s top 100 asset managers now offering ETFs. disruption, climate change and geo-political environment
and the increasing need to deliver sustained outcomes for
stakeholders, ETF issuers need to lead the way on product
Exhibit 1 innovation and business model reinvention.
How the Global ETF market has changed since 2013 Our recent global Asset Management research predicts that
16% of asset management firms are in danger of being acquired
2013 2023 or going out of business in the next 3 years.
Global ETF AuM (USD bn) $2,376.1 $11,464.3 As ETF issuers operate with tight margins, technology is going
Number of ETFs globally 4,032 9,804 to play a key role in helping firms to drive changes in their
Number of ETF issuers business models from operations right through to reaching new
233 582 and emerging end investors.
globally
Source: Lipper Data Our survey finds that retail investors will be an increasingly
important segment of future growth looking for easily
understandable and accessible direct-to-market products,
From strength to strength which can be traded via a digital interface.
The rapid expansion in global ETF AuM anticipated in our 2013 The race to keep pace with today’s generational shifts and
paper has continued at a phenomenal pace. Having recorded a demands for personalised financial solutions will divide the
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.0% since 2013 and winners from the losers in this fast-evolving ETF and wider asset
18.9% in the past five years, global ETF AuM grew by more than management arena. The challenges are exacerbated by the
fact that, while investors demand more from ETF managers,
competition on fees remains intense, making profitable growth
challenging.
Growth in ETF AuM is now soaring worldwide as the US, Canada and Europe all raise their five-year projections for regional AuM
and the APAC region moves into a new phase of expansion.
United States
The US is the largest ETF market, with US ETF AuM surpassing $8.0 trillion in December 2023, which represents more than
70% of the global ETF AuM. The US respondents in our survey continue to be bullish about prospects for further growth. The
majority of US respondents (64%) expect US ETF AuM to reach at least $13 trillion by June 2028, with a 12.5% CAGR. However,
this includes 41% of US survey respondents who are even more bullish and believe that US ETF AuM would reach $15 trillion
or more by June 2028, representing a CAGR of 15.8%. The highest level of ETF demand over the next few years is expected to
come from financial advisors and intermediaries (76%), model portfolios (76%) and retail investors (72%) according to our survey.
Although the US active ETF market is relatively small in comparison to passive ETFs, active ETF AuM recorded a 35.4% CAGR
over the last five years, reaching almost $514 billion in 2023. Over 70% of the ETFs launched in the US in 2023 were actively
managed, with net inflows of $118.5 billion.
Exhibit 2
US historic and projected ETF AuM
The US ETF market has evolved significantly over the past 10 years, including new issuers, product innovation, and regulations.
The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 is a significant development for the industry as described in more detail in
Section 2. Numerous proposals to launch an ETF share class in mutual funds could create another opportunity for significant US
ETF growth if approved by the regulator.
Canada recorded strong ETF inflows of $31.5 billion in 2023, which brought Canadian ETF AuM to $295.9 bn in December
2023, representing 3% of global ETF AuM. The resilience and growth of Canadian ETFs is in stark contrast to a year of low
inflows to Canadian mutual funds ($4.5 billion in 2023). Canadian respondents in the 2023 ETF survey are even more optimistic
about ETF growth ahead, with over 50% anticipating that Canadian ETF AuM will reach at least $700 billion by 2028, reflecting a
19.6% CAGR over that 5-year period. The highest level of ETF demand over the next few years is expected to come from retail
investors (88%), financial advisors and intermediaries (76%) and model portfolios (71%) according to our survey.
More than half of the net inflows in 2023 went into active ETFs ($16.1 billion in 2023). Active ETFs now make up more than 26%
of the overall Canadian ETF AuM, one of the highest proportions in the world. Canada active ETFs have had a 31.6% CAGR
over the last five years. Other fast-growing products include high interest savings account (HISA) ETFs as investors look to take
advantage of the increases in deposit rates.
The pace of expansion and development in the ETF market is attracting regulatory attention, with the Canadian Securities
Administrators (CSA) announcing a planned review of ETFs. The review will assess whether the current ETF regulations remain
appropriate, with a particular focus on secondary market trading, creations and redemptions by authorised dealers and the
arbitrage mechanism.
Exhibit 3
Canada historic and projected ETF AuM
51% of Canadian survey respondents think that Canadian ETF AuM will reach Survey forecast responses
at least $700 Billion by June 2028, which represents a CAGR of 19.6%. In June 2028, Canadian
ETF AuM will reach…
$bn
1,000 AuM CAGR
Survey
1,000 respondants
$1 tn 28.4%
5-year CAGR 13%
22.7% Survey
750 700 AuM CAGR
respondants
$700 bn 19.6%
38%
500 Survey
AuM CAGR
350 respondants
296 $500 bn 11.8%
43%
253 234
250 187 Survey
147 AuM CAGR
107 respondants
$350 bn 4.1%
6%
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2028
Europe is the second biggest regional market for ETFs, with 16% of global ETF AuM in 2023. European ETF inflows of $158.2
billion were the second highest on record, with European ETF AuM reaching $1,789.2 billion at the end of 2023.
Our European survey respondents see significant further potential ahead – six out of ten believe that European ETF AuM will
reach $3 trillion by June 2028, with a 14.3% CAGR over that period. The highest level of ETF demand over the next few years is
expected to come from retail investors (71%), model portfolios (67%) and financial advisors and intermediaries (62%) according
to our survey.
Although Europe doesn’t as yet have the benefits of a US-style integrated capital markets infrastructure, it is slowly moving
in this direction. Plans include the central collection of real-time transaction data from all EU trading platforms as part of the
proposed “consolidated tape.” Greater transparency and integration would boost trading efficiency, ETF competitiveness and
cross-border investment for European listed ETFs.
Exhibit 4
Europe historic and projected ETF AuM
60% of European survey respondents think that European ETF AuM will reach
at least $3 Trillion by June 2028, which represents a CAGR of 14.3%. Survey forecast responses
In June 2028, Europe
$bn
ETF AuM will reach…
3,000 AuM
CAGR
Survey
3,000 $3 tn respondants
14.3%
5-year CAGR (or more) 60%
18.6% 2,200 Survey
AuM CAGR
respondants
2,000 1,789 $2.5 tn 10.2%
20%
1,581
1,276 1,392 Survey
AuM CAGR
1,027 respondants
$2.2 tn 7.4%
20%
1,000 761
Survey
AuM CAGR
respondants
$2 tn 5.4%
0%
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2028
Asia Pacific (“APAC”) ETF AuM has been growing at more than 22% a year since 2013 to reach a record high of $1.26 trillion in
2023. This makes APAC the third largest ETF market worldwide, with 11% of global ETF AuM. Nearly half of APAC respondents
in our survey believe that regional AuM will catch up with Europe by 2028, reaching $3 trillion AuM, with a 17.8% CAGR over
that period. The highest level of ETF demand over the next few years is expected to come from retail investors (86%), model
portfolios (79%) and financial advisors and intermediaries (50%) according to our survey.
An example of some of the moves that will influence greater ETF adoption can be seen in Japan. The Japanese government
has given ETFs a further boost as it looks to encourage citizens to move their savings to investments. The incentives include
increases in investment limits and tax allowances in the popular Nippon Individual Savings Accounts (NISAs). In Taiwan, the ETF
market is also experiencing significant growth driven by younger investors and media influencers.
Exhibit 5
Asia Pacific historic and projected ETF AuM
77% of Asian survey respondents think that APAC ETF AuM will reach at
least $2.5 Trillion by June 2028, which represents a CAGR of 17.8%. Survey forecast responses
In June 2028, APAC
$bn
ETF AuM will reach…
3,000 AuM
CAGR
Survey
3,000 $3 tn respondants
22.2%
5-year CAGR (or more) 46%
18.9% 2,500 Survey
AuM CAGR
respondants
2,000 $2.5 tn 17.8%
31%
1,500
1,259 Survey
AuM CAGR
1,110 respondants
959 1,017 $2 tn 12.7%
15%
1,000 713
529 Survey
AuM CAGR
respondants
$1.5 tn 6.4%
8%
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2028
The maturity of the respective ETF markets and regulations in each of the four major regions will continue to have a significant
impact on the growth and innovation of ETFs. Throughout this paper we highlight developments which will shape the future of
ETFs over the next few years.
When we asked ETF managers which regions they were focusing their distribution efforts in, while most were focused primarily
on their local regions and other established regions, evidencing the global nature of most ETF issuers. In addition, respondents
stated that between 18% and 27% of their distribution efforts would go to Latin America and the Middle East (see Exhibit 6),
which both present new opportunities for growth.
In Latin America, ETF AuM grew to $17.9 billion in 2023, up from $14.1 billion at the end of 2022, with Chile leading the way in
new registrations. In the Middle East and Africa, ETF AuM grew to $8.2 billion in 2023, up from $7.1 billion at the end of 2022,
with Saudi Arabia attracting the most registrations.
Exhibit 6
Regions earmarked for growth - Markets in which survey respondent’s organisations are focusing their distribution efforts in the
next 12 months
13%
20% 20% 20%
7% 24%
6% Asia Pacific Canadian
8%
respondents 17% respondents
9%
9% 11%
17%
19%
16%
17% 16% 23%
6% 11% 14%
European US
5%
respondents respondents
12%
8%
United States Asia Pacific Canada Europe Latin America Middle East Oceania
Although traditional passive equity and fixed income ETFs continue to make up the bulk of ETF AuM, ETF managers keep innovating
and diversifying their product ranges as investors seek out new investment opportunities and ways to balance their portfolios.
Active ETFs only represent 1% of the ETF AuM in Europe and Active ETFs offer a gateway into the ETF market for mutual
APAC (excluding Australia). However, survey respondents fund managers with compelling investment strategies. In the
expect this trend to also take hold in these regions, with US, for example, many of the recent launches have been
approximately half of survey respondents predicting increasing initiated by major financial services firms that are new to
investor demand for these products. the ETF market. The growth in active ETF demand has also
spurred a wave of mutual fund to ETF conversions. A fifth
of the asset managers taking part in our Asset and wealth
management revolution 2023: The new context survey
signalled that they are planning to convert part of their mutual
fund offerings to ETFs over the next 12 to 24 months.
20%
Digital assets
According to our survey results, digital assets are coming
more to the fore. One in five of our survey respondents expect 0%
Europe Asia Pacific Canada United States
significant investor demand for Bitcoin ETFs over the next two
to three years, with APAC out in front. 2023 2022
US respondents in our survey were less confident. However, Source: PwC Global ETF Surveys 2023 and 2022
sentiment may have evolved as our survey was conducted
prior to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
approval of 10 firms with spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. The contrast is even more marked when looking at product
After an almost ten-year push for some of those firms to launch plans. Almost 70% of European respondents expect
secure approval from the SEC, this is not only a significant more than half of their launches over the next 12 months to be
development for these US firms, but also for the ETF industry ESG-focused, compared to just 15% of their US counterparts.
as a whole, as yet again the ETF wrapper is the vehicle of
choice for this asset class. More than a third of respondents
plan to launch digital asset ETFs if regulators allow it in their Embracing personalisation
respective regions.
As the ETF sector continues to mature, niche products are
becoming more mainstream. The broad extension of product
ranges proposed to investors may not be enough in itself
Exhibit 8 given the importance of offering customised and personalised
investment products and solutions to attract and retain
Percentage of respondents expecting significant demand investors.
for Bitcoin ETFs
This shift from sales to solutions is likely to be accelerated
Asia Pacific 36% by heightened regulatory scrutiny on outcomes and value for
United States 21%
money.
Europe 14%
The resulting solutions are likely to include a mix of ETFs,
Canada 12%
mutual funds and other investment products. Firms that
Source: PwC Global ETF Survey 2023 don’t include ETFs within their solutions may be at a marked
disadvantage.
Most ETF firms are still relying on organic growth and traditional routes to market. But moves into retail and new emerging growth
markets are likely to require a broader set of distribution channels, capabilities and partnerships.
No surprise that 85% of survey respondents believe that developing distribution channels is the most significant factor in the
success of their business.
Gaining access to broker dealer platforms, having sufficient tools and resources as well as hiring, training and retaining strong ETF
specialists will continue to be important in reaching new investors and delivering more personalised solutions. These have been
identified as some of the biggest challenges for ETF distribution across all regions by our survey participants (see exhibit 10).
There are significant differences in the distribution of ETFs by region. Firms will need to adapt their distribution strategies as they look
to expand in new regions.
Exhibit 10
Distribution challenges (1 represents the area with the biggest challenges and 6 represents the area with the least
challenges)
Looking specifically at the unfolding retail market, most respondents are prioritising investor education and customer experience.
European respondents also recognise the value of ETF savings plans for retail investors, an investor segment that has been
growing at a significant pace in Europe over the last few years.
Robo-advisors, mobile apps and direct investments are also considered important as firms seek to strengthen end-investor
engagement and improve understanding of their financial goals without the need for a costly intermediary. Failure to develop
effective mobile and other digital channels could also make it harder for managers to connect with younger investors into the future.
Lorem ipsum
Commission-free trading
Asia Pacific 79% 14% 7%
Canada 29% 59% 12%
Europe 57% 33% 10%
United States 72% 17% 11%
Respondents’ preferred route to market entry is by organic means. This can have its challenges where access to customers
is dominated by local private banks or intermediated channels. Only around one in five are prioritising partnership with a local
financial institution.
Exhibit 12
Preferred routes to new markets
3% 6%
20% Acquiring a local ETF manager
7%
Converting existing investment products into ETFs
Joint ventures or partnering with a digital platform provider could offer an effective option for mutual fund managers seeking to
enter the ETF market or ETF managers looking to gain a foothold in new territories.
In the US and APAC, more than 70% of survey respondents believe that commission-free trading will be very important in
attracting retail investment.
While the EU is considering a ban on commissions as part of its Retail Investment Strategy, the European Fund and Asset
Management Association (EFAMA) is pressing for a more qualitative approach that focuses on assessing investor needs and the
delivery of value for money1.
1
“EFAMA proposes alternative solutions to benefit investors within the Retail Investment Strategy”
Technology transformation not only holds the key to bolstering margins but also to opening up new distribution channels and
developing personalised solutions.
As an ETF manager, the pressure to deliver more for less is intensifying the squeeze on what are already tight margins. US and
European ETFs which have a total expense ratio (TER) of less than 50 basis points hold more than 90% of the total ETF AuM in
these regions.
One example where the operational demands are increasing is the move to a shortened T+1 settlement cycle in the US and
Canada effective May 2024. With timing disparities in settlement across worldwide markets, significant focus will be required on a
number of operational areas including redemptions, trading, collateral and cash management.
Technology holds the key to addressing increasing operational demands, cutting costs and sustaining returns. Building on the
foundations of versatile plug-and-play cloud platforms, developments in disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence (AI),
big data and blockchain could also help your business to strengthen investor engagement, better understand their needs and
accelerate product development.
Survey respondents in most regions see robo-advisors, online platforms and mobile apps as the technology that is likely to have
the biggest impact on the ETF industry over the next few years. The exception is the US, where big data, machine learning and
AI top the list. Many US firms have scaled back on robo-advisors and online platforms due to uncertain regulations and the
inability to obtain scale.
Exhibit 13
Ranking the areas of technology with the biggest impact on the ETF industry over the next two to three years
(with 1 having the most impact, 5 the least impact)
The rise of AI has added fresh urgency to digital transformation. PwC has predicted that AI could contribute as much as $15.7
trillion to the global economy by 2030.
AI can not only improve decision-making and speed up time-consuming tasks, but also provide a powerful catalyst for
transforming entire processes, functions, and business models.
The areas where respondents believe that AI will have the most impact over the next two to three years are marketing, indexing
and portfolio management. Operations is next on the list. Harnessing AI could give your business a decisive edge as you look to
get closer to end-investors and tailor solutions.
Exhibit 14
Areas impacted by AI - Expected impact of AI over ETF functions in the next 2 to 3 years
This report highlights both the risks of standing still and the opportunities to strengthen innovation and ensure future relevance as
investor expectations evolve and retail investor markets open up across the globe. How can your business get out in front? Four
priorities stand out:
Ireland
Bill Donahue
Managing Director, PwC US
[email protected]
+1 617 318 8847
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