Mass Media,

Behaviour Change &

Peacebuilding
A discussion paper from the
Behavioural Insights Team
Authors: Antonio Silva, Ariel Bothen,
Ben Szreter, Camilla Devereux, Chloé Chambraud,
and Lucy Makinson
Contents

Acknowledgments 3

Executive Summary 4

Summary of Recommendations 5

Introduction 6

A behavioural model of peacebuilding 7

Mass Media, an innovative tool for Peace 8

Insights from the evidence 9

The effect of mass media on behaviour 10

The effect of mass media on peace and conflict behaviours 12

Insights from across mass media interventions 14

Approaches to measuring peaceful change 21

Why evaluate? 22

Three approaches for better evaluations 23

Choosing the right outcome measures 26

Conclusions 29

References 33
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 3

Acknowledgments
This report was written by Antonio Silva, Ariel Bothen, Ben Szreter,
Camilla Devereux, Chloé Chambraud, and Lucy Makinson. We would also like
to thank our colleagues Tess Moseley-Roberts and Alexander Whitefield from
the Behavioural Insights Team, and Govinda Clayton from the University
of ETH Zürich, for their outstanding contributions to this review.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 4

Executive summary
Up to 100,000 people are killed each year as a result of violent conflict. But this
is only one part of the human cost. Impact on families and communities can be felt
decades later. Millions of individual decisions underpin these tragic impacts: people
decide either to stoke hatred or to confront it, to fight or to lay down weapons, and
to forgive past conflicts or to repeat them.

Mass media and propaganda has often been used as a tool to generate hatred
and perpetuate conflict. The purpose of this review was to understand whether
it can also be a tool for maintaining and rebuilding peace. We reviewed the
evidence of mass media’s impact on peacebuilding behaviours to identify if (and
how) it works, and to suggest approaches for harnessing mass media in the future.

The three most important takeaways are:

1 2 3
Mass media can drive sustained Changing audiences’ perceptions Media can backfire, and
changes in behaviour of their social environment drives we need to improve our
changes in behaviour understanding of what works
We found evidence of mass
media affecting a wide range Mass media can change Not all media interventions
of conflict behaviours, from behaviour without affecting achieve their desired effect.
increased willingness to speak underlying attitudes. Instead, Many have no effect at all, and
out against interpersonal it often changes audiences’ some make things worse. In
violence, to encouraging perceptions of how other people order to start using mass media
militants to put down weapons, would behave. Sometimes it effectively for peacebuilding,
or increasing engagement in does this directly, by using we need to learn what works
peaceful democratic processes. storylines of people acting through robust evaluations of
Some effects persisted months positively or supporting those new and existing programmes.
later, even for videos just a few who do. Sometimes the media We suggest three approaches
minutes long. provokes discussions with for better evaluations, and
read more The effect of friends and family, and in some suggestions for measuring
mass media on peace and doing so reveals how they feel complex behaviours.
conflict behaviours . about a behaviour (for better or read more Approaches to
for worse…). read more measuring peaceful change .
Insights from across mass media
interventions .
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 5

Summary of recommendations

These recommendations relate to specific insights identified throughout the review.

Click on the heading to read more about how they can be applied, and the
evidence underpinning them.

1 Show social endorsement 2

of positive behaviours, and Focus on measuring behaviours,
sanctioning of negative not attitudes.
behaviours.

3 4
Make content easy to share
Encourage group listening and
and actively encourage
watching
recipients to do so.

5 6
Include short-form content Evaluate core messages in
as part of mass media short-form first to understand
interventions. their impact.

7 8
Ensure content is entertainment
Consider alternative mediums to
focused (with research
engage new audiences.
supporting it).

9
Don’t assume that what you’re
doing will work. Evaluate
instead.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 6

Introduction

Violent conflict is one of the most pressing and social polarisation, or to facilitate the
challenges facing humanity. Armed violence recruitment of insurgent groups. And it can do so
causes physical devastation, suffering, at a relatively low cost.4
displacement and death. It creates trauma now
and for generations to come. This paper puts forward how behavioural
insights and mass media can be used together to
Between 55,000 and 100,000 people are killed promote peace-building. The behavioural insights
each year as a result of violent conflict. In 2019,
1
approach consists of using the latest evidence
more than 68 million people across the globe on what influences behaviour, applying this
were displaced due to conflict or persecution — knowledge to real-life issues and evaluating if it
the highest number recorded for 30 years.2 There makes a difference. The use of this approach has
were 54 state-related violent conflicts worldwide grown over the last ten years but has barely been
— the highest number since 1975. 3
used in the field of peace-building.

So how can we reduce violent conflict or prevent We propose that by combining art and science,
it from happening in the first place? Mass media, story-telling and psychological research, it is
such as TV, radio and the internet, through its possible to drive positive change. In a context
exceptional reach can influence and mobilise where resources are scarce, we want policy-
not just individuals, but also communities and makers, funders and international organisations
populations. But mass media can also be part of to use these findings and tools to better inform
the problem when it is used to promote violence and evaluate their policies and programmes.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 7

A behavioural model of peacebuilding

Humans are tribal. We have an evolved tendency to form and prefer our own
group. We are also emotional and our actions are often driven by rapid and
unconscious processes, such as the need to preserve a positive sense of self.
Our unconscious instincts and our in-group preferences combine to create our
worldview; one in which our biases and self-serving attributions create a different
lens for understanding our own behaviour from that which we apply to others.5 6

Situational and structural factors also interact with our behavioural instincts,
often exacerbating them. For example, people who are accustomed to violent
behaviour may behave in violent ways as part of harmful, automatic patterns of
thinking and acting.7 These behaviours can become normalised and reinforced
as part of a group culture, as is often the case for urban street gangs,8 armed
militias, and military forces. A conflict environment can also create cues that
individuals associate with violence - such as temperature, memories, or a ‘hot-
headed’ emotional state9 10 11 - that prompt further violence.

Understanding these behavioural and structural drivers of violence is the first step
in combating them. The next step is to identify insights that help to overcome these
barriers to design more effective peacebuilding interventions.

One example comes from Liberia. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) has been
widely used as a tool for reducing violence by addressing the psychological
drivers and narratives that perpetuate violence. In this study,12 a thousand
criminally-engaged Liberian men were randomised to receive either eight weeks
of CBT, $200 in cash, neither or both (the cash was to help reduce the structural
motivators for crime, by providing a savings buffer or investment opportunity).
CBT reduced the men’s’ crime and violence rates in the short-run, but over time
the effects dissipated. However, men that received CBT followed by $200 in cash
saw reductions in crime and violence sustained as much as a year later.

This finding highlights how both structural and psychological factors play key
roles in shaping human behaviour that can drive conflict; behavioural insights on
their own are not going to achieve world-peace, but are one important piece of
the puzzle. By understanding how humans behave in practice, we are able to
design more effective programmes that can reduce violence and conflict.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 8

Mass media, an innovative tool for Peace

Mass media can reach people more widely than any other tool and influence
mass behaviour change, for better or for worse. Facebook, for example, played
a crucial role in driving the genocide against the Rohingya in Myanmar, as false
stories about Muslims’ actions in Rakhine state flooded Facebook in Myanmar in
the run up to the atrocities.13

But, if used wisely, mass media can also promote peace. A key component of
conflict resolution is the ability and willingness to imagine another’s perspective.14
By encouraging mutual understanding and highlighting positive interactions, mass
media can shift violent norms towards more peaceful alternatives.15

One way in which mass media achieves this is through sharing stories. The
impact of art and media - such as books and movies - is a result of taking the
perspectives of the characters depicted within the story. As described by Wayne
C. Booth, “art is a bridge between one mind and another … it’s a primary way
in which people create and exchange meaning”.16 These individual stories are
powerful – we think of individuals as having more ability to feel than groups, and
are more likely to empathise with the story of an individual than the story of a
group. Indeed, positive media exposure to individual out-group members appears
to improve attitudes towards the out-group as a whole.17 18

By putting these stories into the homes and phones of people across the globe,
mass media can create a bridge between ourselves and others in a way that
other forms of communication are not able to. It is this that gives mass media the
potential to reduce conflict at a global scale.

Reach of mass media channels

Internet Mobiles Radio Television

Nearly half of the There are now more Around 75% of Approximately
world’s population mobile phones than households in 2.6 billion people
used the internet in there are people in developing countries watched the 2012
2017, up from the world — with 5 have access to a Olympics and 2018
about a third billion people using radio and there are FIFA Men’s Football
in 2010. 19
mobile devices, over more than 44,000 World Cup.22
half of these being radio stations
smartphones. 20
worldwide.21
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 9

Insights from the evidence

The starting point for understanding how looking first at the evidence for mass media
mass media can affect peacebuilding interventions in general, before focusing on
behaviours is to know what has worked (or specific examples related to peacebuilding.
hasn’t) so far. Examples of mass media applied Ultimately, however, our aim is to look forward,
to peacebuilding are particularly useful, but not back. To do this, we highlight insights that
we can also learn a lot about how mass media emerge across multiple studies, and put forward
affects behaviour by looking at its use in other recommendations for practitioners and policy-
spheres. In this section we consider both: makers to apply in their own work.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 10

The effect of mass media on behaviour

Mass media influences almost all aspects of our life, from the size of our families,23
our intimate relationships,24 personal finances,25 attitudes towards women,26 or
voting choices.27 Before turning to the effects of mass media on peacebuilding
behaviours specifically, we first look at the impact of mass media on a wider
set of behaviours where the literature is more extensive. These studies help us to
understand the role that mass media can have in shifting attitudes and behaviours
in general, as well as providing methodological templates to rigorously assess mass
media’s impact.

Health and wellbeing

Mass media is an essential element of a public health professional’s toolkit. While

the conditions under which people are born, live and work are important for their
health, around half of the global burden of disease is borne from behavioural
and lifestyle factors.28 Mass media campaigns can be effective in changing
population-level health behaviours both by encouraging new healthier behaviours
and discouraging unhealthy behaviours.29

Amongst other health outcomes, experimental studies demonstrate that mass media
can increase uptake of treatments for malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia,30 uptake
of iron-fortified salt,31 HIV testing and awareness,32 and child survival across a
range of low- and middle income countries.33

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the behavioural dimension of media-

based health campaigns into sharper focus. It is not always positive. A recent
study found that Fox News viewership caused reduced compliance with social
distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.34 However, there has
also been rapid innovation in evidence-based public health communications
addressing behaviours such as physical distancing, handwashing and self-
isolation.35 36
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 11

Education and skills

Mass media can improve both adult and children’s educational levels and
aspirations. One of the earliest and best known examples comes from Peru,
where Miguel Sabido pioneered edutainment formats and produced Simplemente
Maria (‘Simply Maria’) in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The show, which
follows a hard-working woman training to be a fashion designer, has been
credited with a significant increase in adult literacy (and uptake of sewing too).37
More recently, in late 2020, sales of chessboards skyrocketed following the
release of Queen’s Gambit on Netflix.38

Similar stories abound. In Benin, access to community radio stations increased

parental spending in children’s education and led to an increase in literacy
rates amongst children.39 In Ethiopia, exposure to short documentaries improved
parents’ aspirations for their children, leading them to invest more money in
their education.40 And once again in Peru, telenovela-style videos providing
information about the financial and social benefits of education have
been used in classrooms to successfully reduce school dropout rates.41

Criminal justice

Mass media can also shift criminal behaviours, attitudes towards them, and public
safety policies.

In Nigeria, for example, a film in which characters reported corruption helped

shift social norms around corruption and increased citizens’ reporting of it.42 In
Italy, the roll-out of digital TV channels reduced exposure to crime-related news
(which was more common on terrestrial TV) and, in turn, decreased concerns
about crime.43 This decreased concern had direct impacts, reducing both votes
for the centre-right political party and police expenditure.

In the United States, exposure to Fox News even impacts criminal sentencing
decisions.44 A natural experiment showed that in regions with higher viewership
of Fox News, jail sentences are harsher and longer. This effect is stronger for black
defendants and individuals sentenced for drug-related crime. Interestingly, elected
judges (rather than those who are appointed to their position) are more susceptible to
this trend, which suggests wider public sentiment may play a role in these sentencing
patterns.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 12

The effect of mass media on peace and

conflict behaviours

Mass media shapes attitudes towards outgroups

Mass media is a powerful tool in shaping how we see people who we perceive
to be different from us. In Rwanda, the Musekeweya radio drama focuses on the
story of two fictional villages with a history of violence towards each other, and the
reconciliation process between them. Throughout the show, a set of educational
messages related to conflict and reconciliation are weaved in. Listening to the
show helped to build trust towards out-groups and increased the ability of listeners
to engage in perspective-taking, by imagining the genocide from the viewpoint of
an ethnic group different to their own.45 These findings are echoed in a study in
Burundi, where listeners of a radio show on violence prevention and reconciliation
were found to have increased tolerance and trust in outgroup members, alongside
improving attitudes related to conflict and violence.46

Mass media can instigate violent behaviours and contribute to conflict

Mass-media is effective in shifting attitudes and behaviours, but this can be a

double-edged sword. Some of the best-evidenced research in this area shows
that exposure to mass media may precipitate extreme violence. In the Rwandan
genocide against the Tutsi in 1994, the radio station RTLM broadcast hate messages
that shifted perceptions of social norms such that prejudice, extreme violence, and
intolerance of Tutsis appeared as the new normal. This, in turn, fuelled the genocide
on at a horrific pace and earned RTLM the nickname “Radio Machete”. Between
April and June 1994, an estimated 800,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsi, were killed in
100 days.

The causes of the eruption of violence that followed are complex and involve
long-standing ethnic tensions. However, radio broadcasts played their part.
Using variation in radio coverage across Rwanda researchers found that radio
broadcasts had a significant impact on killings in the Rwandan genocide.47 This
was driven by direct effects of the broadcast, which impacted violence in areas of
higher radio coverage, and spill over effects experienced in nearby villages.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 13

Mass media can reduce violence

Radio can also be used as part of a broader violence prevention strategy. For
example, radio broadcasts have been used in central Africa48 to encourage defection
from the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a rebel group that started in northern Uganda
but has spread over a wider area. A study using natural variation in radio signals
between 2008 and 2015 found that areas exposed to radio messages saw reduced
fatalities and violent incidents against civilians.49 As opposed to providing moral
justification for violence reduction, the messaging focused on the importance of
safe-surrender and reintegration, and included personal messages from families
who wanted their relatives to leave the LRA, and highlighted the economic benefits
of defection. However, while these practical messages regarding economic choices
increased defection, they also had unintended impacts on other criminal behaviour,
with an increased looting of food being found.

Mass media can contribute to peace-building and democratic processes

Participation in civil society is a key part of peacebuilding. Active citizens

help directly by reconstructing community buildings and spaces after
violent conflict, but also by driving democratic processes that can prevent
violence from happening again. Having a healthy media landscape is
crucial in achieving these goals.50

In India, for example, radio advertisements were used to campaign against vote
buying in the run up to the 2014 general election. The adverts emphasised the
incentives of politicians who give ‘gifts’ to voters, and the likely consequences of
voting for them. The radio advertisements caused a shift in allegiances equivalent to
approximately two million changed votes.51

Whilst the above example uses mass media to support democratic processes agnostic
of the political party, mass media’s influence is more often to endorse a specific
candidate. In the United States increased exposure to Fox News has been shown
to increase Republican vote shares.52 53 As Fox News expanded through cable
television in the 1990s, the channel increased the Republic vote share in the elections
of 1996 and 2000.54

Highly politicised broadcasts can create antipathy amongst the opposing group,
and stoke divisions. In the aftermath of the Serbo-Croatian war of the 1990s, for
example, nationalistic Serbian radio tended to castigate the Croat side. Whilst
intended for Serbians, many Croatians also listened to these stations (primarily
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 14

for non-political content) where they had access. Doing so stoked anti-Serbian
sentiment across Croatians -- access to these broadcasts increased the likelihood of
Croatians voting for Croat-nationalist parties and increased anti-Serbian graffiti.55

Insights from across mass media interventions

Mass media interventions have focused on a wide range of behaviours. Whilst

their aims may be different, there are common themes that emerge in terms of what
works and how. These themes are the starting point for developing core principles
that can be applied across media interventions.

Media changes behaviour through norms, rather than attitudes

It is often assumed that behaviour change comes from changing individuals’

underlying beliefs or attitudes. In a peace-building context, for example, we might
assume that aggression towards another group depends on their beliefs about
that group, or their attitudes towards violence. However, a wealth of studies have
shown that changing attitudes is often neither necessary or sufficient for behaviour
change.56 57 We find that this is true for mass media
interventions within peacebuilding too. Instead they
are more effective at changing behaviour by changing
perceptions of the social environment, such as the
expectations and beliefs of others.

For example, a series of Ugandan edutainment videos

about domestic violence increased both men and
women’s’ willingness to report incidents, and even
reduced women’s’ actual experiences of violence over
the following six months.58 However, this was not due to
a change in attitudes - there was no discernible effect on
viewer’s attitudes regarding the acceptability of violence
against women, their beliefs in the suffering women faced
because of it, or their general acceptance of gender
equality.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 15

Instead the increased willingness to report seems to be driven by changes in the

perceptions of how others would respond. The videos consistently showed reports
of domestic violence being handled appropriately, and viewers were more likely
to believe the community would intervene following a report, and less likely to
believe reporters would face social repercussions for doing so.

Similar effects were found for a Rwandan radio programme that was designed
to encourage independent thought and collective problem solving. The radio
programme succeeded, in that listeners were more likely to express views that
contradicted popular narratives (such as admitting that their communities had low
levels of trust), and were more likely to work together to provide for hungry refugees
in a hypothetical scenario. However, personal preferences towards interacting with
different social groups were unchanged by the radio programme, suggesting that
fundamental attitudes towards other groups were unchanged. Instead, the change
seems to be driven by changing perceptions of what an individual should do.
Listeners were, for example, more likely to feel that “When [they] disagree with
something that someone says, [they] should dissent”.59

In both the above examples, the media intervention changed behaviour (or stated
behaviour) without seeming to change core attitudes (attitudes towards other
groups, or the ethics of violence against women). Instead, the media portrayals
changed perceptions of the social context around the behaviour; what is expected
(or what one should do), and how others will react.

Recommendation 1
Show social endorsement of positive behaviours,
and sanctioning of negative behaviours.
If media interventions affect behaviour by changing perceptions of the social context,
it is important that messages about the social context are clearly delivered. As well as
showcasing positive behaviours to normalise them, media storylines should include
community reactions to different behaviours. These should emphasise supportive
reactions to positive behaviours, and chastisement of negative behaviours (if these
are shown at all).
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 16

Recommendation 2
Focus on measuring behaviours, not attitudes.
When creating their theory of change, peace-building actors should not assume
that a change in attitudes will result in, or be necessary, for a change in
behaviour. This also has implications for measurement. If we ultimately care about
behaviour change, measuring attitudes (whilst often easier) tells us little. Instead,
the focus should be on measuring behaviour, which can be complemented with
secondary measures of perceived norms.

Sharing media experiences with others changes its impact

The consumption of mass media doesn’t happen in a vacuum. We will often

discuss what we have seen or heard with those around us, which can help us to
reflect on and process the messages conveyed. In doing so, we can increase the
impact of those messages.

In Mexico, for example, a short radio series around violence against women
made listeners more likely to sign a petition to create a violence against women
support group,60 but only when people listened to it in a group. When the radio
series was played to individuals on its own, it had no effect. This suggests that it
was the fact that the show provoked discussions and enabled listeners to learn
about each others’ beliefs that made it effective, rather than the message of the
show on its own.

The presence of fellow listeners and viewers is not universally positive, however.
The conversations can undermine as well as reinforce the core messages. A study
on an Egyptian TV show, for example, found that while it improved attitudes
towards women’s ability to run their own business, these effects disappeared
when friends also watched the show.61 It’s possible that the conversations
prompted by the show highlighted friends’ negative views on the topic,
undermining the positive norm the show sought to create.

Discussion about a show can, in theory, be had with non-viewers (or listeners),
potentially increasing the impact of the show by relating the message to a wider
audience. The evidence for this, however, is mixed.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 17

The anti-Tutsi messages used in “Radio Machete” (discussed in Mass media can
instigate violent behaviours and contribute to conflict ) had negative effects in
areas with radio coverage and in nearby villages, suggesting that the messages
were being spread either directly (through discussion) or indirectly (for example
through shifting norms). However, cutting edge research in Uganda that set-out to
measure such spillovers found that whilst short videos affected audience members’
attitudes in relation to violence against women, teacher absenteeism and abortion
stigma, these attitudes didn’t spread in the rest of the community.62 63 64 It is
possible that actions (such as violence towards other groups) spread more readily
than attitudes, which are less visible.

In the above Ugandan study the videos were not easy for viewers to share.
We know, however, that in many cases media content is shared through social
networking platforms, and there is evidence that this encourages the spread of
both the media and its impact. In a recent study short video messages about
COVID-19 were sent to recipients in West Bengal via links in text messages.
Within the video, viewers were asked to forward the video via WhatsApp. As
well as increasing health reporting behaviours of SMS recipients, there were
positive community spill overs to those who weren’t originally sent the message,65
suggesting potential ‘viral’ spread of the message.

Recommendation 3
Encourage group listening and watching.
Our perceptions of group norms are not always accurate - in other
words we often don’t know what others really think about a particular issue.
For example, we may perceive our friends to be more or less critical of marriage
between different ethnic groups than they actually are. When we engage
with content alongside others it can update our perceptions and either help to
reinforce the message (if the norms of the group align with the message), or
undermine it (if group norms run against the message).

Research prior to a media intervention being rolled out can be used to

understand how perceptions of group norms align with reality. If group norms
are more aligned with the media’s message than the perception of them, creating
opportunities for group engagement (such as community screenings or discussion
groups) is likely to reinforce the media message and increase its impact.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 18

Recommendation 4
Make content easy to share and actively encourage
recipients to do so.
Media that is shared through social networks can have substantially greater
impact. Not only do more people encounter the media, we are often more
receptive to information shared through our networks than from anonymous
sources. First, content should be easy to share. This might include sharing it
by WhatsApp, where it can be forwarded, rather than by SMS; or by telling
listeners where to access shows outside of live broadcasts. Secondly, viewers or
listeners should be explicitly asked to share the content, and to tell friends why
they think it is interesting or important. Even a simple request like this can quickly
scale impact, an effect that has been seen in charitable donation drives.66

Media doesn’t need to be long to be effective

In the age of social media attention spans cannot be relied on, and short duration
content is increasingly viewed and shared around the world. While many of
the examples presented so far have used long-form mass media, such as radio
and television series, this is not necessary for a mass media intervention to be
effective.

For example, two separate studies have shown that videos as short as 2-3
minutes can reduce Islamophobia and anti-Muslim sentiment. In one study, non-
Muslim Americans were shown two-minute videos highlighting the hypocrisy
of blaming Muslims as a group for the actions of individual Islamic terrorists.
Viewers were subsequently less likely to attribute blame for the Paris terrorist
attacks to either “Muslims in general” or “French Muslims”.67 In the other study,
a similar audience watched 2-3 minute news clips portraying Muslims as either
violent, neutral or non-violent affected their attitudes and perceptions towards
Muslim Americans.68 The short videos led (in predictable directions) to either an
increase or decrease in stated support for military action in Muslim countries, as
well as support for civil restrictions against American citizens who are Muslim
(such as restrictions on voting).

The effects of short-form media can also persist, at least to the medium-term. In
Colombia, short videos showed ex-FARC combatants speaking about their daily
lives, common concerns, and desire to reintegrate with Colombian society.69
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 19

Colombians who saw the videos had more humanizing attitudes towards ex-
combatants three-months later, despite no additional exposure to the video.70
Similarly, Americans who watched a short movie trailer (less than three minutes)
about Palestinian nonviolent resistance to Israeli forces improved attitudes
towards Palestinians even weeks later, without creating negative attitudes towards
Israelis.71 Those watching the trailer were also significantly more likely to sign a
petition urging the American Congress to support the Palestinian move to join the
International Criminal Court.

Recommendation 5
Include short-form content as part of
mass media intervention.
People get bored easily. Short-form content is more likely to keep people engaged
and is also cheaper to produce, and can be nimble enough to respond to recent
news events. Given this and it’s clear potential for impact, short-form content
should be considered as a key tool for a peace-building media strategy.

Recommendation 6
Evaluate core messages in short-form first to
understand their impact.
Whilst short-form media can be effective, there is still a place for longer-form
media, which is likely to attract a different audience (non-social media users, for
example) and might help to communicate more complex messages. However,
testing core messages in short videos first could provide a low-cost way to identify
which will be the most effective before developing the extended version.

Content must be engaging to be effective

Many of the recommendations above focus on how content can be designed

to maximise impact. However, there is no point paying for the development
and evaluation of an intervention if no one wants to watch it. When we work
with NGOs to design and evaluate media campaigns, we find that entertaining
and engaging an audience is often an afterthought. Scant attention is paid to
character and plot development, resulting in boring shows that few people watch.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 20

For long-form interventions an engaging plot and characters is a priority, but

shorter interventions (see Media doesn’t need to be long to be effective, above)
can be an alternative where attention span is likely to be a problem. Finally,
newer forms of media might offer opportunities to increase engagement and
impact. For example, an experiment in Pakistan investigated whether a
two-and-a-half minute long VR video could be used to increase willingness to use
public spaces (finding positive effects) and social cohesion through exposure
to diverse social groups (finding mixed effects).72 Similar research looking at the
impact of mobile media content and other content such as video games
is also being undertaken,73 including evidence that even low-tech games can
increase resistance to misinformation.74 The evidence base for both VR and
game-based interventions is still in its infancy, but given the novelty of VR and the
large audience for video games75 both offer opportunities for high-engagement
interventions.

Recommendation 7
Ensure content is entertainment focused
(with research supporting it).
None of the recommendations around content will make a difference if the target
audience doesn’t listen to or watch it. For long-form media, the starting point
should be an engaging plot and characters. The science on how to make it
impactful should be fitted within that, not the starting point.

Recommendation 8
Consider alternative mediums to engage new audiences.
Radio and TV interventions can be effective, but they can require regular
engagement and may not always be consumed by the target audience. As well
as shorter content designed for social media, there are promising interventions
using video games and VR which could help to reach new audiences.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 21

Approaches to measuring
peaceful change

Despite the work presented in the previous To understand what works and how we can keep
section, the evidence base for peacebuilding driving change, we need to be evaluating our work
interventions is still in its infancy - we have in the most rigorous way possible and sharing
a lot left to learn. While we can (and should) the lessons learned with fellow practitioners. In
inform programmes with what has worked this section we outline the core arguments for
elsewhere, we also know that context matters, evaluating peacebuilding interventions, and
so a positive result doesn’t guarantee that provide a starting guide for evaluation approaches
the idea will work in a different setting. depending on your organisation’s intervention,
resources and capabilities.

FOR
CTs CE!
R EA
P
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 22

Why evaluate?

The need for evaluation comes down to two key facts: we don’t yet know what
works to promote peacebuilding, but getting our approach wrong can backfire.

We don’t know what works to promote peacebuilding

There is a dearth of evidence on what works to prevent armed

violence and promote peace. When evidence does exist, it is
often weak, fragmented and of poor quality. A 2016 review of
conflict prevention interventions found that only 6% of the 149
studies under review were of high-quality, and of these, most
found that the interventions weren’t effective.76 Furthermore, most
studies were qualitative and thus unable to assess the causal
impact of interventions.

We should not assume that good ideas will

work. Changing behaviour is hard, and
the majority of social programmes and
behavioural change interventions are not
effective.77 Starting with the evidence is crucial
for increasing our chance of success, but there are
still many unknowns. We need to view truly impactful
interventions as the exceptions, and keep searching for them.

Getting it wrong can make things worse

An ineffective intervention is not the worst case scenario. Even well-intentioned

media interventions can be damaging. Take, for example, the Kumbuka Kesho
soap opera in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The soap aimed to improve
social cohesion by emphasizing conflict reduction and integrating a storyline
about two young people from different ethnic backgrounds who fall in love.
However, at the end of the series listeners were more exclusionary of groups they
disliked - they were less likely to want them in their associations, less likely to feel
peace could be achieved with these groups in their neighbourhood, and were
less likely to donate salt to individuals in need.78 The negative impacts were even
larger in areas where the soap was accompanied by a talk show discussing the
soap, its storyline and its characters.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 23

This is not a unique example. An evaluation of a TV show encouraging collective

action in the DRC found that while it increased viewers’ willingness to take
action and their belief in the impact they could have, it reduced their tolerance
for diverse opinions and their level of cooperation with those outside their
group.79 An intervention in Vietnam increased political transparency by providing
information on political candidates’ legislative activities through a popular news
platform. However, the (randomly selected) politicians they focused on actually
conformed more to regime-supporting behaviours as a result.80

Three approaches for better evaluations

Robust evaluations can often seem difficult to conduct, particularly for mass media
interventions which are, by their nature, diffuse. However, pragmatic evaluations
are possible. The key to a good evaluation is a comparison group that enables
you to answer the counterfactual: what would have happened if the media had
not been broadcast?

Below we elaborate on three approaches that can be used to evaluate almost

any mass media intervention, and provide examples of how they have been
implemented in practice.

1. Conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT)

RCTs, in which individuals (or groups, villages or areas) are randomly allocated
to receive an intervention, are widely considered to be the gold standard of
impact evaluations. The process of random allocation helps to ensure there
are no systematic differences between those that receive the intervention and
those that don’t (such as propensity to listen to the radio, or initial interest in
peace-building) and so we can compare their outcomes and attribute it to the
intervention.

Mass media interventions are often seen as difficult to randomise, because it

is not always possible to control who views or listens to them. However, the
studies included in this report demonstrate several solutions for overcoming this
problem:
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 24

· Randomising by area. Places where TV or radio stations cover a

relatively small geographical area make it (relatively) easy to control
who can and cannot access the media. By identifying all the different
broadcast areas and randomising which ones your intervention will
be broadcast in, you can compare outcomes (see next
section) across the different areas.

· Incentivising individuals to engage with the content.

It is not always necessary that only some individuals
have access to the media - it can be enough to make sure
some individuals are more likely to engage than others.
Most often, this is achieved by paying a random sample
of individuals to watch or listen to a programme, although
softer incentives such as listening groups (with snacks!) are an
alternative. These approaches are known as encouragement designs,
and they work best when the baseline engagement with the media is not
that high (so that the difference between those that are encouraged and
those that are not is greatest).

· Distributing content before a wider roll-out. The above approaches

are alternatives to a classic individually randomised trial, but these too
are possible. For example, one study in Nigeria distributed different
versions of a DVD film to different villages with varying anti-corruption
messages, and then compared numbers of corruption reports between
these villages81. Approaches like this could be used before the wider
roll-out of an intervention, or in areas it has not yet been shared.

2. Compare changes in outcomes with a comparison group

While RCTs are the most robust way to evaluate an intervention, you may not
always have control over who receives it or where it is rolled out. However, you
can still retain the most important aspect of good evaluation - having a clear
counterfactual - by comparing outcomes to a comparison group.

Your comparison group should be as similar as possible to the group receiving

your media intervention. For example, this might be a neighbouring area to
where the intervention is being delivered, or even a specific group that might
not receive it (if, for example, mass media is being broadcast in schools, recent
school leavers might be a suitable comparison group).
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 25

You should expect that, without your intervention, the attitudes and behaviours
of this group would change in a similar way to your intervention group. You
then need to collect outcomes before and after the intervention for the group
receiving your intervention and your comparison group, and compare the change
in outcomes amongst people receiving the intervention with those that did not
receive it. This is called a difference-in-differences approach, and has been used
by several of the studies presented in this review.

If your outcome measure is routinely collected (such as police data on assaults)

you can conduct this type of evaluation retrospectively, to understand the impact
of an intervention that has already been rolled-out. However, if you are relying
on new survey measures, you will need to conduct surveys before roll-out in both
your intervention and comparison populations.

3. Experiment online

There are times when a robust evaluation “in the wild” is simply not possible
or efficient. For example, you may not be able to collect outcome measures at
sufficient scale to come up with a confident estimate of impact, or you may want
to test small adaptations to an existing programme
at very low cost. In these cases, it may be worth
considering an online experiment.

Online experiments are similar to a survey, except

that participants are exposed to different content
before the main questions, to understand how the
information affects their responses. For example,
participants could be shown one of two videos
about a conflict, before questions about their
attitudes to one of the groups portrayed in the
videos.

Because of the controlled nature of

an online experiment, they are often
more sensitive than a field trial in a
real-world setting and the results do
not necessarily reflect the same size of
effect you would see in a real-world
setting. However, they are a useful
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 26

indication of the directional effect - is your intervention improving attitudes and

behaviours, having no impact, or backfiring? They are also an excellent way
of testing smaller variations than you would be able to detect in a field trial,
such as the effect of changing the message at the start and end of a broadcast.
BIT’s ongoing research using Facebook to recruit participants and test reactions
to media content allows inexpensive rapid trials to take place and highlights
the potential for testing the impact of mass media before wider broadcast and
evaluation in the field.

Recommendation 9
Don’t assume that what you’re doing will work.
Evaluate instead.
Mass media interventions can be complex to evaluate, but there are
lots of innovative approaches that will radically improve your understanding
of the impact your media has. This is not just a nice add-on: there are plenty of
examples of ineffective (or actively harmful) media. If your media is reaching
a large audience, you’re spending a lot on it, or both, then evaluation is
critical. When your evaluation is complete, share the findings in a blog post or
report if at all possible.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 27

Choosing the right outcome measures

As highlighted in the earlier sections, the relationship between attitudes

and behaviour is a complex one. Finding a positive impact on attitudes
does not always predict a subsequent effect on behaviour. And, inversely, a
lack of impact on attitudinal measures does not always mean no impact on
behaviour. Because of this, measuring actual behaviour should be the priority.

Table 1. gives some examples of how this can be done, for a range of
different peace building outcomes.

However, when it’s not possible to measure behaviour here

are four viable alternatives (suggestions for measuring these
in a peace-building context are also included in the Table 1.):

1 Reported behaviours
These ask individuals how they have behaved in a recent period. While
all surveys carry risk of self-report biases (particularly overstating positive
behaviours), carefully worded questions focused on objective past
behaviours reduce the risk of overstatement.

2 Behavioural intentions
These ask individuals how they would behave in a hypothetical situation,
and might be useful for rarer occurrences that can’t be captured in reported
behaviours. They are likely to overstate positive behaviours but, provided there
is no reason the intervention would increase the degree of overstatement,
should still show whether an intervention has increased the desired behaviour.

3 Perceived norms
As noted above, mass media interventions often shift behaviour through
norms rather than attitudes. As a result, measuring perceived norms is likely
to be a better proxy for behaviour than measuring attitudes. These measures
should be used alongside measures of reported and/or intended behaviours.

4 Stated attitudes
Stated attitudes do not always predict behaviour, so should not be used
as a proxy for expected behaviour change. However, they can be a
useful complement to measures of reported and/or intended behaviours,
particularly for understanding how an intervention is working.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 28

Table 1: Approaches to measuring peace-building outcomes

What we want How can we

to measure measure it Examples Type

Voting behaviour for candidates Green, D. P., & Actual behaviour

Support for advertised as less corrupt Vasudevan, S. (2018)
peace process/
Voting behaviour for extremist parties DellaVigna et al (2014) Actual behaviour
democracy
Donation to charity Salma Mousa (2020) Actual behaviour

Signing petition to provide political Bruneau, E., Lane, D., & Actual behaviour
support to outgroup Saleem, M. (2017)
Donation to charity Bruneau, E., Lane, D., & Actual behaviour
Saleem, M. (2017)
Support for To what extent do you support Casas, A., Hameiri, B., Stated attitude
outgroup reintegration of ex-combatants from an Kteily, N., & Bruneau, E.
members armed group (in submission ).
Positive attitude/association towards Conroy-Krutz, J., & Stated attitude
political candidates of opposing party Moehler, D. C. (2015)
Willingness for children to marry outside their Paluck, E.L. (2009) Perceived norms
own regional, religious, or ethnic group.

Support for To what extent do you support the use of Saleem, M., Prot, S., Stated attitude
armed groups or military intervention in another country Anderson, C. A., &
military action Lemieux, A. F. (2017)

Increase in defections from armed groups Armand, Alex, Paul Actual behaviour
Atwell, and Joseph F.
Change Gomes. 2020
in violent
Violent incidents within region Armand, Alex, Paul Actual behaviour
behaviour
Atwell, and Joseph F.
Gomes. 2020.

Pro-census sticker wearing and taking of Trujillo & Paluck (2011) Actual behaviour
Change in civic information packets
engagement Voter turnout for election of political Actual behaviour
Green, D. P., &
leaders Vasudevan, S. (2018)

Acceptance Willingness to report incidents of Green, D. P., Wilke, A. Behavioural

of violent domestic violence M., & Cooper, J. (2020) intention
behaviour Signing petition for the creation of a Arias, E. (2018) Actual behaviour
support group for victims of violence
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 29

Conclusions

Violence and conflict can tear communities, media that we more readily associate with
countries and even whole continents apart. light entertainment.
Often, it is a response to grievances and
prejudices that are older than many of the The purpose of this review was to understand
participants and appear deeply entrenched. whether these attempts can be successful and,
Yet, there are attempts to heal these divides if so, how we can best go about it. The answer,
and reduce violence through mass media; in short, is yes, but it’s complicated. Below we
often soap operas, radio shows and social elaborate on three key findings from the review.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 30

1. Mass media can drive sustained changes in

peacebuilding behaviours, if it engages audiences
The examples brought together in this review show the huge potential of mass
media to change how individuals relate to one another, whether that’s by
reducing interpersonal violence , encouraging militants to down weapons , or
increasing engagement in peaceful democratic processes.

There is also the potential for real longevity in these impacts. Because mass media
lends itself so well to entertainment, it is possible to create interventions that
individuals engage with over months, or even years -- consistently reinforcing or
even evolving the desired behaviours. However, the growth of social media and
short-form content still provides space to drive change. Even short videos of just a
few minutes can have impacts that persist months later.

To have any impact, however, mass media interventions must be engaging. The
recommendations from this review can be used to maximise behaviour change,
but they do not replace the need for creativity in developing engaging characters
and storylines. Whether it is short videos that attract attention on social media or
long radio shows that engage audiences week after week, mass media that leads
with science rather than storylines will fail to hit the mark, and ultimately lose the
audiences it needs to change behaviour.

2. Changing attitudes is not always necessary, or

sufficient, to change behaviour
We found plenty of examples of mass media interventions changing attitudes
towards other groups . However, this did not always result in changes in
behaviour. At the same time, many of the interventions that did shift behaviour
had no effect on attitudes. Instead, these effective interventions were
often shifting norms (our perceptions of what other people do, or what is
socially acceptable).

From a behavioural science perspective this is not surprising - the effects

of norms on behaviour are well evidenced in a host of settings, just as the
link between attitudes and behaviour is shown to be imperfect. But it
is particularly interesting in the context of mass media and peacebuilding.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 31

Firstly, inter-group attitudes can be particularly difficult to shift,82 so norms may

be a more attainable goal. Secondly, media may be particularly well suited to
shifting norms, as it illustrates norms through portrayals of behaviour and often
prompts discussion with those around us, which can make us aware of positive
norms that we may have underestimated.

3. There is an urgent need to build the evidence

base, in order to develop more effective
interventions
We found that mass media can drive positive peacebuilding behaviours, but it
can also drive negative ones. Sometimes, this is deliberate. However, we also
found evidence of backfire effects even from well-meaning productions.

At the moment, the evidence for what works within peacebuilding mass media
approaches is still young. There are clear successes, but they are generally based
on a single evaluation and we do not yet know how well they will translate
into a new context. There are also some insights, such as the role that norms
play in effective interventions, that we can infer from across studies. However,
there is undoubtedly more to be learned about how mass media works in a
peacebuilding context.

All of this points to the urgent need for better evaluation. Mass media is a
powerful tool, and we need to make sure it is used effectively. This means
evaluating new interventions to quickly spot what could be harmful, and so that
we can identify common themes across effective interventions and ensure they are
adopted more widely. Mass media is often seen as challenging to evaluate, but
we have proposed pragmatic approaches that can be used depending
on the scale and resources of the project. We have also highlighted what
better outcome measures look like, focusing on measuring behaviours rather than
self-reported attitudes.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 32

Mass media is a powerful tool that can shape the

behaviour of entire communities, and at least start
to repair the fractures that divide them. But it is a
tool that we still need to understand much better
if we are to use it at scale to deal with one of the
world’s most pernicious problems. This review is
a small step in building that understanding, and
we hope it is a starting point for new ideas, new
evaluations and, ultimately, new insights.
The Behavioural Insights Team / Mass Media, Behaviour Change & Peacebuilding 33

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