Climate Dynamics

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06990-6

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature

over India
Sambasivarao Velivelli1 · G. Ch. Satyanarayana1 · Jasti S. Chowdary2 · K. Koteswara Rao3 · Anant Parekh2 ·
C. Gnanaseelan2

Received: 9 March 2023 / Accepted: 8 October 2023

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023

Abstract
Air temperature variability and prediction are important considering the potential implications on human health, water
resource management, agriculture and land-atmosphere interaction. In this paper, we investigate the delayed influence of
El Niño on spring Surface Air Temperature (SAT) variability over India using observations and assess its predictability in
coupled climate models. Analysis suggests that El Niño, at its decaying phase, exerts a strong influence on the spring SAT
over Southern Peninsular India (SPI). This warming is mainly induced by an anomalous anticyclone, which extends from
the Western North Pacific (WNP) region to the SPI. The anomalous anticyclone-induced downdraft reduces the cloud cover
and increases incoming shortwave radiation at surface, which in turn causes a dry atmospheric column and dry soil moisture
over this region. As a result of this decreased soil moisture, latent heat flux into atmosphere reduces and enhances sensible
heat transfer, further contributing to dry soil moisture. Both dry soil moisture and anomalous anticyclone contributes to
enhanced SAT over SPI region. It is found that 6 years out of the top 10 warmest years over the SPI region correspond to the
decaying phase of El Niño, suggesting the importance of the present study. It is also found that the intense SAT warming over
SPI aids in increasing frequencies of Discomfort Index hours (exceeding 28 and 30 °C in a day) and the Universal Thermal
Climate Index during El Niño decaying spring years. Further, we have examined the predictability of the spring SAT during
decaying El Niño years based on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) models. It is noted that
most of the APCC models reasonably predicted the spatial distribution of warm SAT over India during the El Niño decaying
spring season at 1 and 3 month lead. This study highlights the predictability of spring SAT a season in advance over India,
which would help in planning better adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords Surface Air Temperature · El Niño · Sea Surface Temperature · Short Wave Radiation · Soil Moisture

1 Introduction 2005; Srivastava et al. 2017). This is a key climate change

indicator, as SAT increases quasi-linearly with cumulative
The increasing trend of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2014). Based on the cou-
over the Indian subcontinent for different seasons is pled model future projections, it has been reported that the
reported by various studies (e.g., Kothawale and Kumar annual mean temperature would rise and exceed the aver-
age temperature baseline period (1976–2005) by the mid-
century about 1.9 °C over the Indian subcontinent (e.g.,
* G. Ch. Satyanarayana Sanjay et al. 2020). In recent decades, many researchers
[email protected]
have focused on long-term SAT changes/trends in India
1
Center for Atmospheric Science, Department of Electronics embedded with global warming (e.g., Meehl et al. 2007;
and Communication Engineering, Koneru Lakshmaiah Trenberth et al. 2007). However, it is important to note that
Education Foundation (Deemed to be University), Guntur, SAT in India also fluctuates naturally on interannual and
Andhra Pradesh, India
decadal time scales in the background of human-induced
2
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth changes (e.g., Chowdary et al. 2014; Zhou et al. 2019).
Sciences, Pune, India
The SAT interannual variability is rigorous and more
3
National Center of Meteorology, Abu Dhabi, important for seasonal climate predictions. In particular,
United Arab Emirates

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 S. Velivelli et al.

Table 1  Details of the APCC models used in this study

Institute Model Number of Initial conditions Spatial resolution
Ensembles

APCC (APEC Climate Center) SCoPS (Seamless Coupled Predic- 10 1st and 5th of the month​ 2.5° x 2.5°
tion System) (Ham et al. 2018)
CWB (Central Weather Bureau) TCWB1Tv1.1 (Paek et al. 2015) 30 30 days before the 15th of each 2.5° x 2.5°
month
ECCC (Environment Climate CanSPISv2.1 (The Canadian 20 1st of month​ 2.5° x 2.5°
Change Canada) Seasonal to Interannual Prediction
System version 2) (McFarlane
et al. 1992)
NCEP (National Centers for Envi- CFSv2(Climate Forecast System 20 4 runs every 5 days 2.5° x 2.5°
ronmental Prediction) Version 2) (Saha et al. 2014)
PNU (Pusan National University) CGCMv2.0 (Ahn et al. 2018) 35 Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Oct, Dec: 2.5° x 2.5°
7th to 16th (10 days) of the month
Feb: 5th to 14th (10 days) of the
month
Apr, Jun, Sep, Nov: 6th​to 15th
(10days) of the month

boreal spring SAT over the Indian subcontinent exhib- the predictive skill of the SAT over India during the boreal
its a relatively large variability with frequent heat waves winter and spring. However, the variability of SAT over the
directly affecting human lives (e.g., Rohini et al. 2016; Indian subcontinent related to El Niño, especially in the
Satyanarayana and Rao 2020; Naveena et al. 2021). For boreal spring, is not well studied.
example, maximum temperatures in Jaisalmer (Rajasthan) In general, during boreal winter, El Niño at its peak phase
reached 52.4 °C in May 2016, making it the most intense induces basin-wide Sea Surface Temperature (SST) warm-
heat wave with high temperatures (e.g., Mazdiyasni et al. ing in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) (e.g., Klein et al.
2017). Knowlton et al. (2014) reported that over 1300 peo- 1999; Xie et al. 2002). In the subsequent spring season,
ple died in Ahmedabad due to high temperatures related to SST associated with El Niño decays rapidly over the east-
heat waves in 2010. Adequate knowledge of SAT variabil- ern Pacific, but El Niño-induced TIO warming persists up
ity is vital for several environmental applications and the to the following summer (e.g., Yang et al. 2007; Xie et al.
planning of coordinated Heat Action Plans (e.g., Prakash 2009). In addition to TIO warming, during the boreal spring
et al. 2017). of the decaying El Niño phase, asymmetric patterns in winds
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of with anomalous northeasterlies in the north of the equator
the most predominant climatic phenomena over the tropi- and northwesterlies to the south of the equator develop over
cal oceans and it significantly impacts regional climate the TIO (e.g., Kawamura et al. 2001; Wu et al. 2008). This
elsewhere (e.g., Philander 1983; Rasmusson and Wallace asymmetric patterns in winds causes lower than normal pre-
1983). ENSO plays a crucial role in heat management on cipitation in the northern Indian Ocean and above-normal
a global scale (e.g., Newman et al. 2016). In particular, the rainfall in the southern TIO (e.g., Wu and Yeh 2010). How-
climate over the Indian subcontinent is known to be altered ever, the influence of TIO and tropical Pacific atmospheric
by ENSO developing and decaying summers (e.g., Kripalani circulation changes on SAT variations over India during the
and Kulkarni 1997; Park et al. 2010; Varikoden et al. 2015). El Niño decaying spring have not been examined yet. Thus,
Previous studies mainly focused on seasonal precipitation this study mainly focused on the boreal spring SAT variabil-
changes associated with ENSO over India. Studies also ity over India during the El Niño decaying years.
reported that SAT variability over India during summer and Further, the accurate prediction of SAT is also essential
fall is strongly linked to developing El Niño (e.g., Halpert due to its significant effect on human lives and on various
and Ropelewski 1992; Kothawale et al. 2010; Chowdary sectors, such as industry, energy, health and agriculture (e.g.,
et al. 2014). Revadekar et al. (2009) noted that an El Niño Lan et al. 2010; Schulte et al. 2016). The present study also
event increases the SAT during the pre-monsoon and post- assessed the predictability of SAT over India with special
monsoon seasons over the Indian subcontinent. Dubey and emphases on the spring season during the El Niño decay
Kumar (2021) suggested that the ENSO strongly influences phase using coupled model hindcast. The rest of the manu-
script is organised as follows: Sect. 2 presents the datasets

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Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature over India

Fig. 1  a Area averaged mean SAT (°C), b standard deviation over the Indian region (70–100° E; 8–36.5° N) for different seasons and, c Spatial
distribution of climatological mean SAT during MAM for the period 1951–2021

and models used in this study. The delayed impact of El Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis 5th genera-
Niño on spring SAT over the Indian subcontinent based on tion] (Hersbach et al. 2020) for the present analysis during
the observations is discussed in Sect. 3. Coupled models 1951–2021. Further, we compute the composite anomalies
skill in predicting the spring SAT over India is examined of rotational wind and stream function at 850 hPa, diver-
in Sect. 4. A summary of the work is presented in Sect. 5. gence and velocity potential at 200 hPa in order to under-
stand the spatial distribution of atmospheric circulation dur-
ing the decaying El Niño events.
2 Data and methodology The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on
hourly data at 30 km horizontal resolution for the period
Daily mean SAT gridded data from the India Meteorologi- 1979–2021 available at ERA5 is used. The UTCI is obtained
cal Department (IMD) for March, April, and May (spring from a multivariate equation that uses different meteorologi-
season - MAM) during the period 1951–2021 is utilised for cal inputs (including ambient air temperature, mean radiant
analysis (Srivastava et al. 2009). This daily gridded SAT temperature, relative humidity (RH) at 2 m and wind speed
data is available at 1°x1° resolution and is used to compute at 10 m) from ERA5 (Hersbach et al. 2020). The use of UTCI
the climatological seasonal means and standard deviation for an outdoor thermal evaluation worldwide is advised in
of SAT. We also compute the seasonal mean SAT and the various climatic settings because of its good performance
composite anomalies for the decaying El Niño years (1973, when compared to internationally standardised assessment
1983, 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2016). These El Niño decay- providers (e.g., Bröde et al. 2013). Due to its sensitivity to
ing years are identified based on November, December and climatic influences and thermo-physiological importance
January (NDJ) Niño3.4 SST anomalies similar to that of across the full heat exchange range, the UTCI can be used
Chowdary et al. (2017). to access thermal stress under a variety of climatic situa-
Monthly mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa, U,V-winds for tions (Di Napoli et al. 2018; Wu et al. 2019; Antonescu et al.
the 850 hPa and 200 hPa levels, Mean Sea Level Pressure 2021; Odnoletkova and Patzek 2021; Shukla et al. 2022).
(MSLP), soil moisture, surface specific humidity, surface The ERA5 hourly temperature and Relative Humidity
shortwave radiation, total cloud cover, SST, surface sensible (RH) at 2 m level data are used to compute the Discomfort
heat flux and surface latent heat flux data at 30 km resolution Index (DI) suggested by Thom (1959) (Eq. 1). If the air tem-
are obtained from ERA5 [ECMWF (European Centre for perature (T at 2 m) is measured in degrees Celsius and the
RH is in % at 2 m, then the DI can be computed by.

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 S. Velivelli et al.

Fig. 2  a Time series of the normalized values of Niño 3.4 SST (NDJ; 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2016) of b SST over the Indo-Pacific region
bars) and SAT anomalies (MAM + 1; blue line) over the Indian region and c SAT over India. The hatched region is statistically significant at
(70–100° E; 8–36.5° N) for the period 1951–2021. Composite anom- a 90% confidence level
alies in the spring (MAM) of decaying El Niño years (1973, 1983,

in the multi-model ensemble prediction system (https://c​ liks.​

DI (◦ C) = T − 0.05(1 − 0.01 RH) (T − 14.5) (1)
apcc21.​org/​datas​et/​model). The models used are SCoPS,
Higher DI values indicate higher thermal human discom- TCWB1Tv1.1, CanSPISv2.1, CFSv2 and CGCMv2.0. A
fort and the suggested hourly DI values above 28 and 30 °C detailed description of the APCC global climate models is
are used (Stathopoulou et al. 2005; de Freitas and Grigorieva presented in Table 1.
2015; Nedel et al. 2015; Roghanchi and Kocsis 2018; Dasari
et al. 2021).
In addition to the analysis of the observations, we have 3 SAT variability during El Niño decaying
examined the predictability of the spring SAT during decay- spring over India
ing El Niño years based on the Asia-Pacific Economic Coop-
eration Climate Center (APCC) models (e.g., Min et al. Figure 1a shows the seasonal variation of SAT averaged
2017) with December and February Initial Conditions (ICs). over Indian land mass based on the IMD mean tempera-
The present study uses 28 years (1983–2010) of SAT, SST, ture for the period 1951–2021. The higher temperatures are
MSLP, U-850, V-850, U-200 hPa, and V-200 hPa weather generally seen in the boreal spring (MAM) season, which
variables from hindcast data sets with a 7-month integra- is known to be the warmest of all. Compared to the other
tion. These simulations in each model have different ICs, seasons, the boreal spring displays a high standard devia-
with hindcast experiments conducted in a group of 5 opera- tion on the interannual time scale, indicating the robust-
tional climate prediction models, which are used by APCC ness of SAT variability in this season (Fig. 1b). The spatial

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Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature over India

Fig. 3  Scatter plots between Niño 3.4 SST (NDJ ; °C) and spring and d time series of the normalized values of SAT anomalies over the
SAT anomalies (MAM + 1; °C) over a all India (70–100° E; SPI during spring for the period 1951–2021. Black bars show springs
8–36.5° N), b SPI (74–80° E; 9–20° N), c Area averaged normalized of El Niño decaying years with SAT warming, and red bars indicate
SAT anomalies during El Niño decaying years over India and SPI, other warmer years

distribution of spring SAT displays maximum temperature SAT variations over India, during the spring of decaying
over central Southern Peninsular India (SPI) and tempera- El-Niño events, composite analysis is carried out. Based on
ture tends to decrease throughout the north during spring the NDJ Niño 3.4 index, six spring seasons of El-Niño decay
(Fig. 1c). The mean temperature also shows abnormal high years (1973, 1983, 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2016) are selected.
values over the central SPI located around 20° N and 80° During the El Niño decaying spring, moderate warm SST
E (e.g., Satyanarayana and Rao 2020). Any fluctuations in is noted over the eastern and central Pacific (Fig. 2b). Due
SAT over India during the spring season, under the high to the strong memory of SST anomalies from the matured
mean temperature, could affect environmental conditions phase of El Niño, warming has sustained until the decay-
and human health. ing spring over this region. At the same time, the TIO also
To understand the relationship between El Niño and exhibits significant basin-wide warm SST anomalies. This
spring SAT over India, we have carried out an analysis of TIO basin-wide warming is induced by El Niño at its peak
SAT during springs of decaying El Niño phase. Figure 2a phase and persists into next spring (e.g., Chowdary and
shows the time series of NDJ Niño 3.4 index SST (peak Gnanaseelan 2007; Xie et al. 2009; Yang et al. 2018). Inter-
phase of El Niño) and subsequent spring SAT (MAM + 1) estingly, SAT over India is abnormally warmer, especially
anomalies over India for the period 1951–2021. The Correla- over SPI in the decaying springs of El Niño years and the
tion Coefficient (CC) between NDJ Niño 3.4 SST and subse- warming is significant at the 90% confidence level over most
quent spring SAT anomalies over India is 0.31, suggesting of the region (Fig. 2c). This further suggests that El Niño
a delayed impact of El Niño on spring SAT. To understand exerts a strong influence on the spring SAT over India in its
decaying phase.

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 S. Velivelli et al.

SPI were associated with the El Niño decaying phase during

the study period (Fig. 3d). Overall, Fig. 3 suggests that the
decaying El Niño exerts a strong impact on regional SAT
over India, in particular over the SPI region.
It is essential to examine the mechanisms responsible for
the anomalous warming of the SAT over India during the
El Niño decaying spring season. Composites of MSLP and
850 hPa wind anomalies in the El Niño decaying springs are
illustrated in Fig. 4a over the Indo-Western Pacific region.
An anomalous MSLP accompanied by an anticyclonic cir-
culation is apparent over the Western North Pacific (WNP)
region. It has been reported that this lower tropospheric anti-
cyclone over the WNP begins to appear during the mature
phase of El Niño (e.g., Wang et al. 2001; Lau and Nath
2003). These studies suggest that central eastern Pacific
warming sets up favourable environmental conditions for the
establishment of a WNP anticyclone during boreal winter.
This anticyclonic circulation is maintained by the positive
thermodynamic feedback of local negative SST anomalies
and remote forcing from the central Pacific warming during
the springs of El Niño decaying events (e.g., Wang et al.
2001). On the other hand, over the TIO asymmetric pattern
of 850 hPa wind anomalies with northeasterlies in the north
and northwesterlies in the south of the equator are noticed
(e.g., Wu and Yeh 2010; Chakravorty et al. 2014). Further,
easterly wind anomalies extended from the southern flank
of the WNP anticyclone to the north Indian Ocean between
the equator and 10° N. These easterlies south of 10° N and
Fig. 4  Composite anomalies of a MSLP (shaded; hPa) and wind vec- weak westerlies north of 10° N over peninsular India indi-
tors at 850 hPa (m s­ −1), b rotational component of wind (vectors; m cate weak anticyclone circulation locally. This anticyclonic
­s−1) and stream function (shaded; ­105 m 3 ­s−1) at 850 hPa and c diver- circulation covering southern parts of India and the Bay of
gence component of wind (vectors; m ­s−1) and velocity potential
(shaded; ­105 m 3 ­s−1) at 200 hPa during the spring of El-Niño decay- Bengal is linked to the WNP anticyclone, as evidenced in
ing years for the period 1951–2021. The hatched region indicates sta- 850 hPa rotational winds and stream function anomalies
tistically significant at the 90% confidence level (Fig. 4b). Upper-level circulation changes in the El Niño
decaying spring season are demonstrated by analysing the
200 hPa velocity potential and divergent wind anomalies
The relationship between ENSO and SAT over India is (Fig. 4c). Strong upper-level convergence and divergence
illustrated in Fig. 3 by means of a scatter diagram. Con- regions are located in the WNP and southwest TIO regions,
sistent with SAT spatial distribution over India, the strong respectively. Note that previous studies have investigated the
relationship of ENSO with spring SAT over southern parts relation between ENSO and velocity potential/divergence
of India is confirmed with a CC of 0.55 significant at the wind to identify regions of convergence/divergence (e.g.,
95% confidence level (Fig. 3b). Similarly, the relationship Ratnam et al. 2014; Lin et al. 2018; Monerie et al. 2019;
(CC) between NDJ El Niño and subsequent spring SAT for Li et al. 2022). These upper-level divergence/convergence
the entire India is significant (Fig. 3a). Figure 3c shows a zones are consistent with lower-level anticyclone circula-
composite of area averaged SAT normalized values over all tion over WNP and the weak convergence over southwest
India and SPI region during the springs of El Niño decay TIO (Fig. 4). The results also show the presence of weak
years. The warm SAT over the SPI region is about four times upper-level convergence from SPI region and the Bay of
more than that of all India average, suggesting the robustness Bengal, which is in line with lower tropospheric anticyclonic
of the results obtained here. Further, it is important to note circulation.
that 60% of years, i.e., 6 out of the top 10 warmest years over

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Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature over India

Fig. 5  Composite anomalies of a Surface short wave radiation ­(101 W the period 1951–2021; composite anomalies of h Universal thermal
­m−2), b Vertical velocity at 500 hPa level ­(102 Pa ­S−1), c Total cloud climate index (K) and i frequencies of Discomfort index hours in a
cover (Dimensionless), d Surface specific humidity ­(103 kg ­kg−1), day greater than 28 °C (shaded) and 30 °C (contour) during the spring
e Soil moisture ­(103 ­m3 ­m−3), f Surface sensible heat flux ­(105 J of El-Niño decaying years for the period 1979–2021. The hatched
­m−2) g Surface latent heat flux (­105 J ­m−2) during the spring of El- region is statistically significant at a 90% confidence level
Niño decaying years (1973, 1983, 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2016) for

The lower troposphere anomalous anticyclone circu- soil moisture leads to reduced latent heat flux into the
lation anomalies covering SPI induce an apparent local atmosphere, whereas enhances sensible heat transfer
downdraft as evidenced by 500 hPa vertical velocity and (Fig. 5f, g) and that activates positive feedback between
favour cloud-free conditions (Figs. 4c and 5b and c). atmospheric heating and further drying of the soil mois-
As a consequence of this, strong incoming solar radia- ture (e.g., Seneviratne et al. 2006; Lorenz et al. 2010;
tion is evident over the central and SPI region (Fig. 5a). Rajeevan et al. 2023). Thus, an anomalous anticyclone
Strong positive short-wave radiation anomalies increase and dry soil moisture together helps to enhance the SAT
causes dry atmospheric column due to subsidence and over the SPI during the El Niño decaying spring season.
dry soil moisture over this region (Fig. 5d, e). This pro- In addition to SAT warming, the UTCI anomalies also
motes excess heating of the land surface in the spring show high positive values (Fig. 5h). The analysis of DI
of decaying El Niño years. It is known that decreased indicates (Fig. 5i) that the number of hours in a day with

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 S. Velivelli et al.

Fig. 6  Mean SAT (°C) for a observations (IMD), b APCC SCOPS, c CWB TCWB1Tv1.1, d ECCC CANSIPSv2.1, e NECP CFSv2, f PNU
CGCMv2.0 and g MMM during the spring season for the period 1983–2010. Shaded (contour) values are based on February (December) ICs

a DI > 28 °C and > 30 °C are significantly high over the Multi Model Mean (MMM). Models spring SAT displayed
east coast of India. This substantial high number of DI is based on the February and December ICs. It is noted
hours in a day can cause discomfort to humans, especially that most of the models are able to simulate maximum
along the coastal region (Fig. 5i). temperatures over the central south Indian region and a
Overall, our results suggest that anomalous SAT warm- decreasing gradient towards the north as compared to the
ing over SPI during the El Niño decaying spring season observations. Spatial variations of SAT ranging from 20
(MAM) is induced by anticyclonic circulation extending to 30 °C are well captured by most of the models and their
from the WNP region to SPI region, positive short wave MMM.
radiation anomalies, less (weak) moisture in the atmos- Figure 7 shows the time series of the SAT anomalies
phere and reduced soil moisture. This strong SAT warm- during spring over India for different models and observa-
ing can have serious implications for human health in tions. It is apparent from the correlation (table in Fig. 7)
terms of increasing discomfort, highlighting the impor- that most of models displayed significant (at 90% confi-
tance of the current study. Further, it is also important to dence level) skills in predicting the spring SAT over India
understand the ability of current climate models to predict for both February and December ICs (Fig. 7). Models like
these extreme warm temperatures over India during the CWB_TCWB1.Tv1.1 and APCC_SCOPS showed slightly
springs of decaying El Niño years. low skills as compared to other models. It is important to
note that most of the models prediction skill for the SPI
region is higher compared to all India as indicated in the
4 Predictability of SAT over India correlation table in Fig. 7. Moreover, strong warm events
during spring of decaying El Niño years during El Niño decay years like 1988 and 2010 are well
predicted by all models. However, the NCEP_CFSv2 and
In this section, we examined the predictability of SAT over PNU_CGCMv2 model prediction skills are little higher
India especially during spring of El Niño decaying years for all India when compared to SPI in predicting the SAT.
based on APCC models seasonal hindcast. Altogether, most models exhibited reasonable skill in
Figure 6 shows the spring SAT climatology over India predicting the year-to-year variability in SAT over India
in the observations and the five APCC models and their (Fig. 7).

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Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature over India

Fig. 7  Time series of the

SAT anomalies over India in
observations (bar) and differ-
ent APCC models (line) with
a December and b February
ICs during spring for the period
1983–2010. The table indicates
correlation coefficient (CC) val-
ues over all India (70–100° E;
8–36.5° N) and SPI region
(74–80° E; 9–20° N) between
the observations and model
SAT during spring obtained
from February and December
ICs. CC values in table greater
than 90% confidence level are
showed in bold

Figure 8 shows the composite SST anomalies during the ICs. We have computed the domain average anomalies
springs of decaying El Niño years from the observations, over SPI and displayed them at the top right corner of each
individual models and their MMM. Note that the years con- panel in Fig. 9. The domain average SAT anomalies for the
sidered for the composite analysis are 1983, 1998, 2003 and observations show 0.65 °C and CWB_TCWB1Tv1.1 model
2010 as the model data is available only from 1983 to 2010. showed the highest values of 0.72 °C and 0.76 °C for Feb-
Models show good skills in predicting the El Niño related ruary and December ICs, which is somewhat close to the
SST anomalies over east and central equatorial Pacific observations. The rest of the models, including MMM have
regions (Fig. 8a–f). The TIO basin-wide warming was also underestimated the SAT magnitude consistent with spatial
predicted well in all models except the PNU_CGCMv2.0 patterns, but anomalies are positive. This clearly suggests
model for both February and December ICs. Most of the that models display good ability in predicting SAT over the
models are able to simulate cooling over the central north southern parts of India during the spring following El Niño
Pacific well. The MMM showed good skill in predicting years at 1and 3 month leads.
these Indo-Pacific SST anomalies as compared to individual Models are able to predict anomalous WNP anticyclone
models at 1 and 3 month leads (Fig. 8g). and weak anticyclone over the southern parts of India
Composite anomalies of SAT over India during a decay- (Fig. 10). This circulation pattern is known to have a strong
ing El Niño spring in the observations, individual models impact on SAT over India during the spring following El
and MMM are shown in Fig. 9. Interestingly, models are Niño years, as discussed in the previous section. As a result
found to be efficient in predicting warm SAT anomalies over of this anticyclone, anomalous short-wave radiation con-
southern parts of India from both February and December tributes largely to warm SAT in models similar to those of

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 S. Velivelli et al.

Fig. 8  Composite anomalies

of SST (°C) for a observa-
tions, b APCC SCOPS, c CWB
TCWB1Tv1.1, d ECCC
CANSIPSv2.1, e NECP CFSv2,
f PNU CGCMv2.0 and their
g MMM over the Indo-Pacific
region during the spring of El
Niño decaying years for the
period 1983–2010. Note that
shaded (contour) values are
based on February (December)
ICs

observations over southern parts of India (Fig. not shown). years. Thus, dynamical model predictions of spring SAT
However, it is noted that in some models, SAT warming over India, especially during the decaying phase of El Niño’s
over the SPI is strong. For example, CWB_TCWBlTv1.1 should be taken into account to reduce the risk factors asso-
and ECCC_CANSIPSv2.1 display strong warming over SPI ciated with extreme SAT changes.
compared to other models (Fig. 9). This model-to-model dif-
ference in warming is related to the strength of anticyclonic
circulation. In both CWB_TCWBlTv1.1 and ECCC_CAN- 5 Summary
SIPSv2.1 models, SLP is also high compared to other mod-
els (Fig. 10c, d), which is accompanied by a strong low-level Understanding global or regional SAT variability and
anticyclone (relative to other models). In general, strong trends has become a focal point because of global warm-
anticyclonic circulation could enhance the subsidence and ing. However, understanding the interannual variability of
cloud free conditions. This further increases the incoming SAT is equally important for seasonal climate prediction
solar radiation, which can increase the SAT locally. What and its influence on human society. This study examines
causes the difference in strength of anticyclonic circula- the delayed impact of El Niño on the spring SAT over
tion over the SPI and WNP region needs further research. India. El Niño is known to manifest large scale circulation
Overall, this analysis showed the models ability to predict over the Indo-Western Pacific region by inducing changes
the changes in SAT during the springs of decaying El Niño in Walker circulation and the WNP anticyclone (e.g.,

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Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature over India

Fig. 9  Composite anomalies of SAT (°C) over India for a observa- 1983–2010. Shaded (contours) values are based on February (Decem-
tions (IMD), b APCC SCOPS, c CWB TCWB1Tv1.1, d ECCC ber) ICs and domain averaged SAT anomaly values over SPI shown
CANSIPSv2.1, e NECP CFSv2, f PNU CGCMv2.0 and their for February (December) in the top right corner of each panel
g MMM during the spring of El Niño decaying years for the period

Fig. 10  Composite anomalies

of MSLP (shaded; hPa) and
wind vectors (­ ms−1) at 850 hPa
a observation, b APCC SCOPS,
c CWB TCWB1Tv1.1, d ECCC
CANSIPSv2.1, e NECP CFSv2,
f PNU CGCMv2.0 and their
g MMM during the spring of
El Niño decaying years for the
period 1983–2010. February
ICs is considered for the APCC
models

13
 S. Velivelli et al.

SAT over India is found to increase the frequencies of DI

hours (exceeding 28 °C and 30 °C in a day) and UTCI dur-
ing the spring of El Niño decaying years, which directly
affect human health.
We have assessed the ability of APCC coupled models
to predict the spring SAT over India during the decaying
phase of El Niño. The APCC models provide an important
source of global information on seasonal climate predic-
tion for various meteorological parameters. It is noted that
most of the models reasonably predicted the SAT over
the southern parts of India during the spring following El
Niño at 1 and 3 month leads. Further, models are able to
predict anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the WNP
and southern India. As a result of this, anticyclone over
southern parts of India, anomalous shortwave radiation
contributes largely to warm SAT in models as in observa-
tions. This analysis clearly reveals the models ability to
predict the SAT changes during the spring of a decaying
El Niño. Therefore, the dynamical model prediction of
spring SAT over India, especially the decaying phase of El
Niño, should be considered to reduce the heat risk factors
on the society.

Acknowledgements Part of this research is funded by APSDMA, Gov-

ernment of Andhra Pradesh under grant no. 10.12038/32/2021-ADMIN
SEC-SDMA-REVDM and SERB, Government of India under grant no.
CRG/2022/006514. This work is also supported by the Director, Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Fig. 11  Schematic representation of mechanisms responsible for SAT We thank the anonymous reviewers for the comments which helped us
warming over the southern peninsular India during El Niño decaying to improve the manuscript. The authors acknowledge free data from
springs the India Meteorological Department (IMD), APCC MME Producing
Centers for making their hindcast/forecast data available for analysis
and ERA-Interim reanalysis.
Wang et al. 2001). It is found that the delayed impact of El
Author contributions VS: Analysis, Visualization and first draft
Niño on SAT is more substantial over the SPI compared to preparation. GChS: Problem envision, Methodology adoption, com-
the northern parts of India. Most importantly, it is reported putation, Software, Visualization, Data Analysis, Writing—Review &
that 6 years out of the top 10 warmest years over SPI were Editing. JSC: Conceptualization, intellectual contribution, Review &
Editing and KKR, AP and CG: Review & Editing.
associated with the El Niño decaying phase during the
study period (Fig. 3d). This highlights the importance of Funding No specific grant was given to this research by funding organ-
the present study. Analysis suggests that an anomalous isations in the public, private, or not-for-profit sectors.
WNP anticyclone extending to SPI is the key to induce
Data availability The IMD data used here is available at https://​www.​
high SAT over this region. An anomalous anticyclone over
imdpu​ne.​gov.​in/​lrfin​dex.​php. ERA5 datasets are available at https://​
SPI induces local downdraft, leading to reduced cloud www.​ecmwf.​int/​en/​forec​asts/​datas​ets/​reana​lysis-​datas​ets/​era5.
cover and clear sky conditions, which favour strong incom-
ing solar radiation to the surface (Fig. 11; Schematic). Declarations
This increased solar radiation causes dry soil moisture,
Conflict of interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of in-
corroborated by less atmospheric humidity over this region
terest.
in the spring of decaying El Niño events. This reduced soil
moisture leads to enhanced sensible heat transfer to the
atmosphere and the positive feedback between them fur-
ther reduces the soil moisture. As a consequence of this,
SAT is enhanced over SPI region (Fig. 11). This warm

13
Delayed impact of El Niño on the spring surface air temperature over India

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