Correlation &

Regression
 Correlation

Finding the relationship between two

quantitative variables without being
able to infer causal relationships

Correlation is a statistical technique

used to determine the degree to which
two variables are related
 Scatter diagram
• Rectangular coordinate
• Two quantitative variables
• One variable is called independent (X) and
the second is called dependent (Y)
• Points are not joined
• No frequency table
Example
Scatter diagram of weight and systolic blood
pressure
Scatter diagram of weight and systolic blood pressure
Scatter plots

The pattern of data is indicative of the type of

relationship between your two variables:
positive relationship
negative relationship
no relationship
Positive relationship
 Negative relationship

Reliability

Age of Car
No relation
Variance vs Covariance
■ Do two variables change together?

Variance:
• Gives information on variability of a
single variable.

Covariance:
• Gives information on the degree to
which two variables vary together.
• Note how similar the covariance is to
variance: the equation simply
multiplies x’s error scores by y’s error
scores as opposed to squaring x’s error
scores.
Covariance

■ When X and Y : cov (x,y) = pos.

■ When X and Y : cov (x,y) = neg.
■ When no constant relationship: cov (x,y) = 0
Example Covariance

x y xi − x yi − y ( xi − x )( yi − y )
0 3 -3 0 0
2 2 -1 -1 1
3 4 0 1 0
4 0 1 -3 -3
6 6 3 3 9
x =3 y=3 ∑=7

What does this

number tell us?
Problem with Covariance:
■ The value obtained by covariance is dependent on the size of
the data’s standard deviations: if large, the value will be
greater than if small… even if the relationship between x and y
is exactly the same in the large versus small standard deviation
datasets.
 Example of how covariance value
relies on variance
High variance data Low variance data

Subject x y x error * y x y X error * y

error error
1 101 100 2500 54 53 9
2 81 80 900 53 52 4
3 61 60 100 52 51 1
4 51 50 0 51 50 0
5 41 40 100 50 49 1
6 21 20 900 49 48 4
7 1 0 2500 48 47 9
Mean 51 50 51 50

Sum of x error * y error : 7000 Sum of x error * y error : 28

Covariance: 1166.67 Covariance: 4.67

 Correlation Coefficient

Statistic showing the degree of relation

between two variables
Simple Correlation coefficient (r)

It is also called Pearson's correlation

or product moment correlation
coefficient.
It measures the nature and strength
between two variables of
the quantitative type.
• The sign of r denotes the nature of
association

• while the value of r denotes the

strength of association.
If the sign is +ve this means the relation
is direct (an increase in one variable is
associated with an increase in the
other variable and a decrease in one
variable is associated with a
decrease in the other variable).

While if the sign is -ve this means an

inverse or indirect relationship (which
means an increase in one variable is
associated with a decrease in the other).
 The value of r ranges between ( -1) and ( +1)
The value of r denotes the strength of the
association as illustrated
by the following diagram.

strong intermediate weak weak intermediate strong

1- -0.75 -0.25 0 0.25 0.75 1

indirect Direct
perfect perfect
correlation correlation
no relation
• If r = Zero this means no association or
correlation between the two variables.

• If 0 < r < 0.25 = weak correlation.

• If 0.25 ≤ r < 0.75 = intermediate correlation.

• If 0.75 ≤ r < 1 = strong correlation.

• If r = l = perfect correlation.
 How to compute the simple
correlation coefficient (r)
ch X and Y vary together
r = degree to which X and Y vary separately

____covariability of X and Y___ =

variability of X and Y separately
How to compute the simple
correlation coefficient (r)
Simpler calculation formula…
Numerator of
covariance

Numerators of
variance
How to compute the simple correlation
coefficient (r)
 :Example
A sample of 6 children was selected, data about their
age in years and weight in kilograms was recorded as
shown in the following table . It is required to find the
correlation between age and weight.

serial Age Weight (Kg)

No (years)
1 7 12
2 6 8
3 8 12
4 5 10
5 6 11
6 9 13
These 2 variables are of the quantitative type, one
variable (Age) is called the independent and
denoted as (X) variable and the other (weight)
is called the dependent and denoted as (Y)
variables to find the relation between age and
weight compute the simple correlation coefficient
using the following formula:
 Age Weight
Serial
(years) (Kg) xy X2 Y2
.n
(x) (y)
1 7 12 84 49 144
2 6 8 48 36 64
3 8 12 96 64 144
4 5 10 50 25 100
5 6 11 66 36 121
6 9 13 117 81 169
Total =x∑ =y∑ xy=∑ =x2∑ =y2∑
41 66 461 291 742
r = 0.759
strong direct correlation
 EXAMPLE: Relationship between Anxiety and
Test Scores
Anxiety Test X2 Y2 XY
(X) score (Y)
10 2 100 4 20
8 3 64 9 24
2 9 4 81 18
1 7 1 49 7
5 6 25 36 30
6 5 36 25 30
X = 32∑ Y = 32∑ X2 = 230∑ Y2 = 204∑ XY=129∑
 Calculating Correlation Coefficient

r = - 0.94

Indirect strong correlation

 Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient
(rs)
• It is a non-parametric measure of correlation.
• This procedure makes use of the two sets of
ranks that may be assigned to the sample values
of x and Y.
• Spearman Rank correlation coefficient could be
computed in the following cases:
• Both variables are quantitative.
• Both variables are qualitative ordinal.
• One variable is quantitative and the other is
qualitative ordinal.
:Procedure
1. Rank the values of X from 1 to n where n
is the numbers of pairs of values of X and
Y in the sample.
2. Rank the values of Y from 1 to n.
3. Compute the value of di for each pair of
observation by subtracting the rank of Yi
from the rank of Xi
4. Square each di and compute ∑di2 which
is the sum of the squared values.
5. Apply the following formula

• The value of rs denotes the magnitude and

nature of association giving the same
interpretation as simple r.
Example
In a study of the relationship between level
education and income the following data was
obtained. Find the relationship between them
and comment.
sample level education Income
numbers (X) (Y)
A Preparatory. 25
B Primary. 10
C University. 8
D secondary 10
E secondary 15
F illiterate 50
G University. 60
Answer:
Rank Rank di di2
(X) (Y) X Y
A Preparatory 25 5 3 2 4

B Primary. 10 6 5.5 0.5 0.25

C University. 8 1.5 7 -5.5 30.25
D secondary 10 3.5 5.5 -2 4
E secondary 15 3.5 4 -0.5 0.25
F illiterate 50 7 2 5 25
G university. 60 1.5 1 0.5 0.25

∑ di2=64
Comment:
There is an indirect weak correlation
between level of education and income.
Exercise
 Regression Analyses

• Regression: technique concerned with predicting

some variables by knowing others

• The process of predicting variable Y using

variable X
 Regression
Uses a variable (x) to predict some outcome
variable (y)
Tells you how values in y change as a function of
changes in values of x
 Correlation and Regression

Correlation describes the strength of a linear

relationship between two variables
Linear means “straight line”

Regression tells us how to draw the straight line

described by the correlation
 Regression
Calculates the “best-fit” line for a certain set of data
The regression line makes the sum of the squares of
the residuals smaller than for any other line
Regression minimizes residuals
By using the least squares method (a procedure
that minimizes the vertical deviations of plotted
points surrounding a straight line) we are
able to construct a best fitting straight line to the
scatter diagram points and then formulate a
regression equation in the form of:

b
Regression Equation

Regression equation
describes the
regression line
mathematically
■ Intercept

■ Slope
Linear Equations
Hours studying and grades
Regressing grades on hours

Predicted final grade in class =

59.95 + 3.17*(number of hours you study per week)
Predicted final grade in class = 59.95 + 3.17*(hours of study)

…Predict the final grade of

■ Someone who studies for 12 hours

■ Final grade = 59.95 + (3.17*12)
■ Final grade = 97.99

■ Someone who studies for 1 hour:

■ Final grade = 59.95 + (3.17*1)
■ Final grade = 63.12
Exercise
A sample of 6 persons was selected the
value of their age ( x variable) and their
weight is demonstrated in the following
table. Find the regression equation and
what is the predicted weight when age is
8.5 years.
.Serial no Age (x) Weight (y)
1 7 12
2 6 8
3 8 12
4 5 10
5 6 11
6 9 13
Answer

.Serial no Age (x) Weight (y) xy X2 Y2

1 7 12 84 49 144
2 6 8 48 36 64
3 8 12 96 64 144
4 5 10 50 25 100
5 6 11 66 36 121
6 9 13 117 81 169

Total 41 66 461 291 742

Regression equation
 we create a regression line by plotting two
estimated values for y against their X component,
then extending the line right and left.
Exercise 2
Age B.P Age B.P
(x) (y) (x) (y)
20 120 46 128
The following are the
age (in years) and 43 128 53 136
systolic blood 63 141 60 146
pressure of 20 26 126 20 124
apparently healthy 53 134 63 143
adults.
31 128 43 130
58 136 26 124
46 132 19 121
58 140 31 126
70 144 23 123
• Find the correlation between age
and blood pressure using simple
and Spearman's correlation
coefficients, and comment.
• Find the regression equation?
• What is the predicted blood
pressure for a man aging 25 years?
Serial x y xy x2
1 20 120 2400 400
2 43 128 5504 1849
3 63 141 8883 3969
4 26 126 3276 676
5 53 134 7102 2809
6 31 128 3968 961
7 58 136 7888 3364
8 46 132 6072 2116
9 58 140 8120 3364
10 70 144 10080 4900
Serial x y xy x2
11 46 128 5888 2116
12 53 136 7208 2809
13 60 146 8760 3600
14 20 124 2480 400
15 63 143 9009 3969
16 43 130 5590 1849
17 26 124 3224 676
18 19 121 2299 361
19 31 126 3906 961
20 23 123 2829 529
Total 852 2630 114486 41678
 =

=112.13 + 0.4547 x

for age 25
B.P = 112.13 + 0.4547 * 25=123.49 = 123.5 mm hg
 Multiple Regression

Multiple regression analysis is a

straightforward extension of simple
regression analysis which allows more
than one independent variable.
 Multiple regression

Multiple regression is used to determine the effect of a number of

independent variables, x1, x2, x3 etc, on a single dependent
variable, y

The different x variables are combined in a linear way and each

:has its own regression coefficient

y = a1x1+ a2x2 +…..+ anxn + b + ε

The a parameters reflect the independent contribution of each

.independent variable, x, to the value of the dependent variable, y
i.e. the amount of variance in y that is accounted for by each x
variable after all the other x variables have been accounted for