URBAN FLOOD RISK MAPPING CONSIDERING HAZARD AND

VULNERABILITY DIMENSIONS
A SEMINAR REPORT
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirement for the award of the

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
in
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT
Prepared by

Hrishikesh Singh
Research Scholar
Enrollment No. 22926004

Under the Guidance of

Prof. MOHIT PRAKASH MOHANTY

Assistant Professor
Water Resource Development and Management
IIT ROORKEE

DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND

MANAGEMENT
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE
ROORKEE-247667 (INDIA)
9th NOVEMBER, 2022
 CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the work carried out in this seminar titled "URBAN FLOOD RISK

MAPPING CONSIDERING HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY DIMENSIONS"

is presented on behalf of partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the Doctor of Philosophy,
submitted to the Department of Water Resource Development and Management, Indian Institute of
Technology Roorkee, India, under the supervision and guidance of Prof. Mohit Prakash Mohanty,
Assistant Professor, WRD&M, IIT Roorkee, India.

I have not submitted the matter embodied in this report for the award of any other degree or diploma.

Date: 06/11/2022
Place: Roorkee
HRISHIKESH SINGH
Enrollment No. 22926004

CERTIFICATION

This is to certify that the above statement made by the candidate is correct to the best of my knowledge
and belief.

……………………..
Professor Mohit Prakash Mohanty
Assistant Professor, WRD&M
IIT Roorkee -247667, India
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I wish to express my deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to my guide Prof. Mohit Prakash
Mohanty, Water Resources Development and Management Department, IIT Roorkee, to provide
guidance and suggestions for this seminar report. I would like to thank him for providing an opportunity
to present the seminar on this innovative field of research.

I would also like to thank Prof. Ashish Pandey, HoD, WRD&M, IIT Roorkee, for his support. Also, I
would like to thank all the teaching and non-teaching staff members of the department who have
contributed directly or indirectly to the successful completion of my seminar work.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction …..................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background …....................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Impacts of Urban Flood…..................................................................................... 1
1.3 Urban flood in Indian Cities …............................................................................. 2
2. Literature Review ……………………………………....................................................... 3
2.1 Flood inundation and hazard modelling…………….………...………………… 3
2.2 Flood hazard Mapping methods……….………...………….………….……….. 4
2.3 Recent Developments.…………………………………………….….…...…….. 4
2.4 Research Gaps……………………………………………………….………….. 4
3. Characterization of Flood Risk ………………………….…………………….………… 5
3.1 Flood Vulnerability……………………………………………………………... 5
3.2 Flood Hazard….………………………………………………………………… 5
3.3 Flood Exposure……………………………………………………………......... 5
3.4 Sources of Uncertainties in flood risk mapping …….………………………….. 5
3.5 Indicators-based Vulnerability assessment…………………………….……….. 6
4. Case Study……………………………………………………………………….………. 7
4.1 Description of Study Area………………………………….…………….…….. 7
4.2 Methods…………………………………………….…………………….……… 7
4.3 Results…………………………………………………………………………… 9
4.4 Conclusion………………………………………………….…………………… 9
5. Summary…………………………………………………………………………………. 10
References……………………………………………………………………………………. 11
 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
List of Figures

Figure 2.1 Classification scheme of flood modelling methodologies………………............. 3

Figure 4.1 Study Area Map…………………………………………………………………. 7
Figure 4.2 Overall weight of sub-criteria by FAHP………………………………………… 8
Figure 4.3 Flood risk map for Kermanshah city based on MaxEnt method: (a) Classified,
(b) Probability…………………………………………………………………… 9
Figure 4.4 Urban flood hazard maps for (a) GARP model and (b) MaxEnt model………… 9

List of Tables

Table 4.1 Criteria and sub-criteria for vulnerability mapping………………………………. 8

 CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Apart from hurricanes and earthquakes, it is observed that floods are the most frequent and rank third in
terms of damage caused globally and in India too. As a result, many researchers are working and putting
significant efforts into developing models and the respective methodologies to better understand Floods
and various scales. In past years, the Indian research community has made notable contributions to flood
estimation, multivariate hydrologic modelling, quantification of uncertainties, climate change, and its
impacts, flood risk assessment, and flood hazard mapping (Teng et al., 2017).

To comprehend the potential effects of floods of a specific size and to start taking steps on the ground
to reduce the damages, flood modelling and the creation of flood extent maps are crucial. Models can be
categorized depending on how the catchment processes are depicted (Nkwunonwo et al., 2020). The
rapid developments in the urban catchment, wetland conversion to paved structures, improper flood
zonings, encroachment of stormwater drainage area, and blocking/chocking of the stormwater flow due
to dumping of solid waste and garbage into the drains have contributed to the increased risk of urban
flooding in many Indian cities (Mohanty et al., 2020).

1.2 Impacts of Urban Flood

The centres of economic growth are cities. By 2050, about 68% of the world’s population, up from the
current 55%, will live in urban regions (UN, 2018). Africa and Asia are predicted to account for the
majority of this expansion. According to data from the national census, about 31% of people in India
reside in urban regions (Census of India, 2011). By 2050, this figure is anticipated to rise by up to 52%
(UN, 2018). Arising doubt whether India's cities will expand to accommodate the population growth.
Urban flooding causes severe infrastructural issues, significant production losses, and considerable
damage to commodities and property. Urbanization results in developed catchments, which raises flood
peaks from 1.8 times and leads to even 8 times and flood discharge volume up to 6 times, making urban
flooding very different from flooding in an undeveloped catchment (Rupa & Mujumdar, 2019).

• Direct damage—typically product and infrastructure damage caused by flowing water.

• Indirect damage—social ill impacts that are long-term, detrimental outcomes that are more
psychological in nature, the decline in property prices in frequently flooded areas and delay in
the growth of the economy, including disruptions to traffic, and labour costs.

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1.3 Urban flood in Indian Cities

Bangalore floods 2022 - 73 people died due to floods since the month of June, 4000 houses flooded,
while 21,727 have been affected and 8,197 people had been rehabilitated. Of them, 7,387 people had
been accommodated in relief centres (The Hindu, 2022).

Flood of Chennai, 2015 - Between 50,000 and 100,000 crores of rupees were lost, on average. 8,000
crores were reported to have been lost by the car industry alone, 2,000 cottages were drowned, and 540
people died on December 10 as a result of the incident, 400 causalities were reported. 18 lakhs of the
population suffered from the floods.

Srinagar Flood, 2014 - The State suffered losses of Rs 1 trillion in the floods and 12.5 lakh families
were affected. A total of 353864 structures have been damaged. 83044 pucca houses have been fully
damaged and 96089 partially. Similarly, 21162 houses were fully damaged and 12.5 Lakh families were
affected by the flood and 281 lives were lost.

Hyderabad Flood, 2008 – The rainfall total accumulated for August 2008 was 220.7 mm in 36 hours.
Property loss amounting to about 50 Crores INR. 14 persons pass away, the majority in home collapses.
1,50,000 people were impacted.

Surat flood, 2006 - There was an Uninsured loss is $2 bn. The city has a diamond turnover of around
Rs.130 crore ($28million) daily and has been forced to a standstill due to heavy rainfall and high floods.
90% of the city was flooded. 40% of people received no warning. 300 deaths were reported. Property
damage was around 3.3 billion USD.

Mumbai floods, 2005 – Crop losses suffered by 5.5 lakh hectares of land, more than 15000 cattle losses,
and around 1000 deaths were reported. 1200 crores of infrastructure damage estimated by the Public
works department (MMRDA, 2006).

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 CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

In urban flood risk management, researchers from all over the globe have done very acknowledgeable
studies and have contributed extensively in the domain. For better understanding, the work carried out
has been subdivided into further sections

2.1 Flood inundation and hazard modelling

Flood Modelling Techniques

Spatial Dimensional Mathematical

Extent Complexity

Lumped 1-D 2–D 3-D Kinematic

Flood odels wave
Inertial wave
Distributed Flood
Flood Models
Diffusive wave
Flood Models
Coupled

Cellular

GIS based

Fig: 2.1 Classification scheme of flood modelling methodologies

Since flooding occurs in form of a wave phenomenon that propagates in a down-gradient with changes
in flow rate and water level, algorithms are designed to solve the numerical expressions that govern the
propagation of flood water from one point to another within a space. Horritt and Bates (1997) tested 1D
and 2D models of flood hydraulics (HEC-RAS, LISFLOOD-FP and TELEMAC-2D) on a reach of 60
km of the River Severn in the UK. We can imply that the simplicity of 1-dimensional models is a result
of significant neglect of important aspects of flood hydraulics, which often characterise urban flooding.
Mignot et al. (2012) used a code solving the 2D shallow water equations by an explicit second-order
scheme to simulate the severe October 1988 flood in the Richelieu urban locality of the French city of
Nîmes. This study shows that, after calibration, a 2D model can be used to help plan mitigation measures
in an urban area. The 2-D flood models such as TUFLOW, SOBEK and MIKE 21 solve the 2-D Shallow
water equations by means of appropriate numerical schemes.
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The 3-dimensional flood models solve the full Navier-Stoke equations and consider the flow of flood
water as completely three-dimensional. As it can dynamically represent the physics of water flow, it is
worthwhile to apply. Bates et al. (2005) outline the development and application of a simple two-
dimensional hydraulic model for use in assessments of coastal flood risk.

2.2 Flood Hazard Mapping Methods

Ismail Elkhrachy (2015) uses the AHP process to calculate the weightage of Runoff, Soil Texture, Slope,
Surface roughness, Drainage density, Distance to the main channel and Land use for the construction of
Flood hazard Map and to identify flood risk zones. The areas in high-risk flood zones are obtained by
overlaying the flood hazard index map with the zone boundaries layer.
Erena et al. (2018) conducted a study with the aim of mapping flood hazards. FLO-2D hydrodynamic
model was employed to identify flood-prone villages.
Rangari et al. (2019) in their study for getting fine-scale rainfall data applied scale invariance theory to
the IDF parameters estimated from the large-scale IDF relationship for the development of a scaled IDF
relationship. Synthetic rainfall hyetographs were plotted and given as input in the HEC-RAS 1D-2D
hydraulic model. Using the combination of flow velocity (V), inundation depth (D), and the product (D
× V) framed to quantify the flood hazard for part of Hyderabad, India.

2.3 Recent Developments in Flood Inundation Modelling

Machine learning models and Artificial Intelligence can determine several rainfall threshold lines
projected in a plane spanned by two principal components, which provides a binary result (flood or no
flood). In doing so, Ke et al. (2020) used a rainfall threshold for classifying flood vs. non-flood events,
based on machine learning approaches, applied to Shenzhen city in China.
Tehrany et al. (2018) used two machine learning approaches, Decision Tree (DT) and Support Vector
Machine (SVM), were utilized to evaluate spatial correlations between flood conditioning factors and
rate their level of importance for mapping the flood-prone areas to verify the assumption of getting
higher accuracy by more factors.

2.4 Major Research Gaps

From the literature review on urban flooding, risk and hazard mapping following literature gaps are
identified as discussed below:
1. Studies on the Quantification of Risk by combining 3 dimensions of hazard, vulnerability and
exposure are limited.
2. Sensitivity of different landscape features to the propagation of flood waves is not understood.
3. Impact of compound flooding leading to elevated flood risk is not analysed.

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 CHAPTER 3

CHARACTERIZATION OF FLOOD RISK

3.1. Flood vulnerability

Flood vulnerability is defined in probability terms that shows how the degree of susceptibility to damage
in an area or population and depends on the human ability to resist. In other words, against an identical
flood, the amount of damage depends on the area's characteristics and demographics. For instance, the
population near a bridge or a hospital is flooded.

3.2 Flood Hazard

Flood hazard can be defined as the amount or intensity of flooding or the amount of disaster it is
possessing to a spatial extent in terms of well-defined hydrological parameters. By incorporating flood
conditioning elements into a Remote sensing and GIS environment to predict the flood danger zones,
delineating the locations in the study area that are prone to flooding. Such mapping procedures are
crucial for flood mitigation policies, emergency services, flood prevention and mitigation, and early
warning systems. This Flood hazard can also be obtained by running a model for an area and further
finding the inundation depth and categorising it into various classes.

3.3 Flood Exposure

This simply means the amount of exposure anything faces regarding a flood event. For example, a
second-storey resident is less exposed to flood in comparison to one residing on the ground floor. With
this factor, we can classify geography into various classes in terms of exposure.

3.4 Sources of Uncertainties in flood risk mapping

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are now routine procedures that provide a general basis for the
evaluation of model behaviours and performance. Flood modelling is a crucial tool in developing
policies for flood risk management. As discussed, there is frequently a situation that ranges from total
data paucity, and lack of access, to limited availability of high-resolution data to use in models. This is
not always an issue in developed countries but for developing countries, this represents a significant
barrier.

3.4.1 Topographical data for flood mapping

Topographical data are key variables needed for estimating the impacts and likelihood of flooding.
Especially in Urban areas, it is required to use less than 10m resolution DEM to do a satisfactory flood
modelling. Although geospatial advances and remote sensing technology now offer a viable tool for this

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data challenge, the cost of space-borne data acquisition and expertise in data processing is a problem for
data-poor localities. The concern is the horizontal and vertical accuracies which are not good enough to
accurately estimate flood inundation.

3.4.2 A need for sub-daily rainfall data

Due to the lack of hourly or sub-hourly rainfall data, it’s difficult to model floods in the Urban settlement
as most flooding events in cities occur due to a heavy-intensity storm occurring in hours or minutes. This
further added to the lack of a reliable intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model makes the situation
worse. The 2 major uncertainty problems highlighted from the observation area
• Reliability of Source
• Resolution of data

3.5 Indicators-based Vulnerability Assessment

Economic indicators are those which indicate the financial damage caused by the destruction or damage
of buildings subject to flooding by recognising the areas which include more sensitive buildings.

Social indicators concentrate on the reaction and resistance of a population against a catastrophic event.
Social vulnerability sub-criteria include the demographic characteristics which illustrate the reflectance
and resilience of the population in flooding.

Infrastructural indicators indicate the Critical infrastructures which when vulnerable can lead to more
risk and danger. Critical infrastructures are places that can play an important role in flood relief and
include schools, fire stations, and hospitals.

Flood Risk
Flood risk is defined as the probability of loss resulting from flooding and depends on elements
susceptible to flooding. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of inundation by the probability
of the potential adverse consequences for human life and the urban environment.

Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability × Exposure

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 CHAPTER 4

CASE STUDY

Various researchers have used the Flood risk assessment by considering Flood hazard and Vulnerability.
In this chapter, a recent work by Eini et al. (2020) is discussed, where the authors developed a flood risk
map for Kermanshah city (Iran) by combining both flood hazard and flood vulnerability maps. The study
was carried out to give insight about the various indicators of vulnerability and their role in defining the
Flood risk. The research work was published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.

The objectives of this study were to: i) compare MaxEnt with GARP to predict the urban hazard map;
ii) address the urban critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, fire stations, and bridges to map
vulnerability; iii) provide a guide to identifying the social sub-criteria in developing countries; and iv)
analyse flood risk based on the role of urban districts.

4.1 Description of the Study Area

The city of Kermanshah is located at 46°, 59ʹ,

47ʺ to 47°, 11ˊ, 27ʺ E and 34°, 15ʹ, 57ʺ to 34°,
24ʹ, 30ʺ N. Kermanshah is the ninth most
populous city in Iran and it is the capital of
Kermanshah province, which has a population
of more than one million according to the 2016
census. The area of Kermanshah is 111 km2
and has 136 districts due to municipality
divisions. This city is located in the middle of
the Gharesu river basin. This catchment
receives most of the western rainfalls, fronts,
and rainy streams due to its location.

Figure 4.1 Study area map (adapted from Eini et al., 2020)

4.2 Methods
Urban flood hazard - In this study, seven factors were selected for hazard mapping; these factors are
rainfall, land use, curve number (CN), elevation, slope, distance to the river, and distance to channel.
Further, two machine learning methods, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set
Production (GARP), were used for urban flood hazard mapping.

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Urban Flood Vulnerability - In this study, vulnerability is sorted into three factors which are:
economic, social, and infrastructural. The criteria and sub-criteria are considered based on the
characteristics of Kermanshah city.
𝑣 −𝑉𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑟
Vrstd = 𝑉 𝑚𝑎𝑥 (1)
−𝑉 𝑚𝑖𝑛

Vrstd = level of vulnerability for the rth neighbourhood,

𝑣𝑟 = class number of rth neighbourhood
Vmin and Vmax are the minimum and maximum class numbers

Table 4.1 Criteria and sub-criteria for vulnerability mapping

Criteria
Economic Infrastructural Social
Sub-criteria Subject Sub- Subject Sub-criteria Subject
criteria
Urban texture Building Street/Road Transportation Age (<20 & >65) Structure of population
Urban density Bridge Household
Quality of Hospital Critical place Population
building
Fire station Women population Ability to access
resources
School Head of women
household
Education Socio-economic
Tenant
Employment
Immigrant Ethnic

The weight vector of the criteria which

are derived from the Fuzzy Analytical
Hierarchy Process indicates that the
infrastructure criteria has more impact
on urban flood vulnerability than other
criteria. The overall vulnerability map
was obtained by using the weighted
linear combination method.

Fig: 4.2 Overall weight of sub-criteria by FAHP

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4.3 Results
Both models showed that the riskiest areas are located in the northern half and the geographical centre
of Kermanshah, especially along the Gharesoo River, as well as on the margins of urban drainage
channels. In general, both modelling approaches are largely similar in predicting flood points according
to the recorded events. The outputs of both approaches showed that machine learning methods provide
reliable results for areas where data access is challenging, especially in developing countries.

Fig: 4.3 Flood risk map for Kermanshah city based on MaxEnt method: (a) Classified, (b)
Probability

Fig. 4.4 Urban flood hazard maps for (a) GARP model and (b) MaxEnt model
4.4 Conclusion

The outputs of both machine learning methods provide reliable results for areas where data access is
challenging, especially in developing countries. Flood risk, as defined as the probability of loss, is a
combination of flood hazard and flood vulnerability. Urban flood risk mapping and identification of
high-risk neighbourhoods will result in more optimal actions in pre-crisis (insurance), during-crisis
(decrease of damages and mortality rates), and the post-crisis period (reconstruction facilities).

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 CHAPTER 5

SUMMARY

Urban flooding is proving to be a menace in recent times with the rapid and fast Urbanisation, especially
in developing countries. With the change in climate patterns and occurrence of extremes frequently, this
results in a catastrophic event even if it happens for a short duration as it causes a lot of Chaos and
mayhem in society. Poor drainage systems, low capacity for storage and infiltration during storm rainfall
events, lack of maintenance, and heterogeneous urban growth are the main reasons for flooding in urban
areas. In addition, future climate and land-use change will also increase urban flooding risks that must
be considered in flood management. The impacts of urban flooding depend on the vulnerability of the
affected people and infrastructure. Vulnerability is a function of the sensitivity or susceptibility of an
urban system to flood hazards and the lack of capacity to react and adapt. Thus, flood risk is a result of
the combination of flood hazard, its exposure and flood vulnerability. The study by Eini et al. provides
a guide to generating a flood risk map using hazard and vulnerability.

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