The Syrian Civil War / The Syrian Crisis
Background
The Assad family ruled Syria for more than 50 years with an iron fist. Now that
has come to an end. Bashar al-Assad became president after the death in 2000 of
his father Hafez, who had ruled for almost three decades. In 2011, he brutally
crushed a peaceful, pro-democracy uprising, sparking a devastating civil war in
which more than half a million people have been killed and 12 million others have
been forced to flee their homes.
On 27th November, the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and
allied rebel factions launched a major offensive in north-western Syria. The
rebels quickly captured the country's second-largest city, Aleppo, then swept
southwards down the highway to the capital, Damascus, as the military collapsed.
Russia announced that Assad had stepped down and left Syria on Sunday, hours
after the rebels entered Damascus and crowds gathered on the streets to celebrate.
It later emerged that Assad had flown to Moscow and been granted asylum.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani meanwhile arrived in Damascus and told
Syrians: "The future is ours."
How did the takeover unfold?
For the past four years, it had felt like the civil war was effectively over.
Assad's government had regained control over most of Syria's cities with the help
of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah, and the front lines
were largely frozen.
However, large parts of the country were still out of the government's control.
The rebels' last stronghold was in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, which border
Turkey and where more than four million people were living, many of them
displaced. It was dominated by HTS, but a number of allied rebel groups and
jihadist groups were also based there. Turkish-backed rebel factions also controlled
territory with the support of Turkish troops.
On 27 November, HTS and its allies launched their surprise offensive.
After three days, they took control of most of Aleppo - Syria's second-largest city.
They said they faced little resistance on the ground after the government rapidly
withdrew its troops and security forces.
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The Turkish-backed rebel factions meanwhile capitalized on the government's
retreat by launching a separate offensive on territory north of Aleppo controlled by
a Kurdish-led militia alliance supported by the United States, the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF).
Assad vowed to "crush" the rebels with the help of his allies. Russian warplanes
intensified strikes on rebel-held areas and Iran-backed militias sent reinforcements
to help the military near Hama - the next city south on the way to Damascus.
But Hama fell to the rebels on 5th December, after several days of fierce battles that
eventually prompted the military to withdraw.
The rebels declared their next goal was to take Homs, Syria's third-largest city,
and achieved that on 7th December night after only a day of fighting. At the same
time, other rebel factions reached the suburbs of Damascus.
Early on 8th December, HTS-led rebels announced they had entered Damascus and
released detainees at the country's most notorious military prison, Saydnaya.
Less than two hours later, they declared: "The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled."
The rebels also promised to build a "homeland for all, including all sects and
social classes".
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group,
reported that at least 910 people had been killed, including 138 civilians, since the
start of the rebel offensive.
What is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?
The Islamist militant group that led the offensive against Assad was set up in 2012
under a different name, al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front, which pledged
allegiance to al-Qaeda the following year, was regarded as one of the most
effective and deadly groups fighting President Assad. But it was feared for its
jihadist ideology, and was seen as being at odds with the largely secular main rebel
coalition - the Free Syrian Army.
In 2016, Al-Nusra broke ties with al-Qaeda and took the name Hayat Tahrir al-
Sham when it merged with other factions a year later. However, the UN, US, UK
and a number of other countries continue to consider HTS as an al-Qaeda affiliate
and frequently refer to it as al-Nusra Front. The US named Abu Mohammed al-
Jolani as a specially designated global terrorist and offered a $10m reward for
information that led to his capture.
HTS consolidated its power in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by crushing its rivals,
including al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) group cells. It set up the so-called
Syrian Salvation Government to administer the territory according to Islamic
law.
Why did the rebels succeed?
For several years, Idlib remained a battleground as Syrian government forces tried
to regain control. But in 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire to halt a
push by the government to retake Idlib. The ceasefire largely held despite sporadic
fighting. HTS and its allies said on 27 November that they had launched an
offensive to "deter aggression", accusing the government and allied Iran-backed
militias of escalating attacks on civilians.
But it came at a time when the government had been weakened by years of war,
sanctions and corruption - with allies Russia and Iran preoccupied by other
conflicts. The Iran-backed group Hezbollah had recently suffered from Israel's
offensive in Lebanon. Israeli strikes had eliminated Iranian military commanders in
Syria, and Russia was distracted by the war in Ukraine.
Without them, Assad's forces were left exposed.
What happens next?
Outgoing prime minister Mohammed al-Jalili said on Monday that most members
of his former cabinet were working with the rebels "so that the transitional
period is quick and smooth". The rebels said in a brief statement that their forces
were close to establishing complete control of Damascus and preserving public
property. They also said Syria's new government would begin its work as soon as it
was formed.
The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, which
represents now-former opposition groups, said on Sunday that it was committed to
"completing the transfer of power to a transitional governing body with full
executive powers, paving the way for a free, democratic and pluralistic
Syria".
The statement made no mention of HTS, but its vice-president, Dima Moussa, told
the BBC that the "transition requires coming together of all Syrian people,
including those who are carrying arms".
Meanwhile, the war continued in other parts of Syria.
HTS and its allies said their forces were advancing in the western countryside of
Deir al-Zour, the largest city in eastern Syria. Turkish-backed rebel factions
fighting under the banner of the Syrian National Army were also advancing
north-west of Aleppo into territory held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic
Forces.
Israel confirmed it was attacking suspected government chemical weapon and
missile sites in Syria, saying this was to stop them falling into the hands of
extremists. It also said it would keep a "limited" troop presence in what had been a
demilitarized buffer zone in part of the Golan Heights because Syrian troops had
abandoned their posts there.
Former Assad loyalists also appeared to be still in control of the Mediterranean
coast and mountains in the west of the country. The region is a stronghold of
Assad's minority Alawite sect and also the location of two key Russian military
bases - Hmeimim airbase and the naval base in Tartous.
How have world and regional powers reacted?
Russia: Russian media said Bashar al-Assad and his family had been granted
asylum. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had been as "surprised" as
everyone else by what had happened and that Syria was "going through a very
difficult period now, due to instability".
Iran: Iran expressed a hope for "the swift end of military conflicts, the prevention
of terrorist actions, and the commencement of national dialogue" with all parts of
Syrian society.
Turkey: Turkey said Syria was now at a stage "where the Syrian people will shape
the future of their own country". Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the new
government "must be established in an orderly manner" and warned that "the
principle of inclusiveness must never be compromised".
USA: US President Joe Biden said the collapse of the Assad government was a
"fundamental act of justice" after decades of repression, but cautioned that the
takeover by Islamist rebels created a moment of "risk and uncertainty".
Israel: Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the collapse of the Assad
government was the "direct result" of his country's action against Hezbollah and
Iran.
Iraq: Iraq, where powerful Iran-backed militias sent fighters to support the Syrian
military in the civil war, said it supported efforts to open a dialogue in Syria
"leading to the adoption of a pluralistic constitution that preserves the human and
civil rights of Syrians".
Jordan: Jordan's King Abdullah, whose country backed rebel factions at the start
of the war, said Jordan respected the will and choices of the Syrian people. He
stressed the importance of avoiding "any conflict that could lead to chaos".
EU: The European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, called Assad's fall "a
positive and long-awaited development", and said the bloc's priority was to
ensure security in the region.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/what-happened-in-syria-has-al-assad-
really-fallen
https://www.britannica.com/event/Syrian-Civil-War
