Population Dynamics

What is human Population Dynamics?

Population dynamics is the study of population size and age composition. It looks at factors
like birth rates, death rates, and migration to understand why populations grow or shrink.
This is important because changes in population size affect economic, social, and
environmental systems.

Rising populations put increasing demands on natural resources such as land, air, water, and
biodiversity. As human communities use more resources, they generate contaminants, such as
air and water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, along with increasing quantities of
waste. Population science also examines how changes in population size affect social and
economic well-being, including impacts on economic growth and poverty levels. It also looks
at the social and economic effects of people moving from rural to urban areas or migrating
internationally.

World Population Growth and Distribution

For the most of its life on Earth, the human population has grown quite slowly. It took until
1804 for the world's population to reach 1 billion because of a number of challenges,
including illnesses and climate change, that kept life expectancy low and mortality rates high
in pre-industrial society. However, the rate of population growth quickly increased after
then.

Both the United States and Western Europe had poor life expectancies throughout the early
decades of the Industrial Revolution. Infectious diseases like cholera and typhoid, which
spread quickly in the overcrowded, dirty conditions of early factory cities. These conditions
were made worse by insufficient nourishment, which took thousands of lives. However, a
series of improvements in health and safety from around 1850 to 1950 greatly improved
standards of living in developed countries.

The majority of developed nations had gone through the demographic shift (how societies
shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates) by the middle of the
20th century. Many developing countries also saw an increase in population growth and
decline in mortality rates, as a result of gaining access of modern health technology. In the
late 1960s, the rate of population growth increased throughout the world.
In the 21st century, population growth trends will be different. Firstly, people are living
longer and having fewer children, so there will be more older people than young children,
especially in developed countries. Secondly, most population growth will happen in cities,
and thirdly, birth rates will keep falling. All of these trends will significantly impact economic
development.
The developed countries now have an aging population (age 60 and above) as compared to a
young population (age 0 to 4). With fewer children being born, the population is aging
quickly, which means there’s a greater need for healthcare, housing, and support for the older
people. This can be costly for the economy and creates a demand for younger workers. To
help meet this need, many countries are welcoming immigrants to fill jobs and support
growth.
In the 21st century, most predicted population growth will occur in cities of the developing
countries. These countries already struggle with poverty, low education, and limited
healthcare, making it harder to meet the needs of growing urban populations.

As cities grow and use more resources, pollution, waste, and damage to the environment
often get worse, especially where there are weak rules to protect nature. Finding a balance
between economic growth and taking care of the environment is very important for the
future.

By 2050, the global population is expected to reach over nine billion, with most growth in
developing nations. Fertility rates are declining, but the final population count will depend on
how much they drop.
The world's most populous countries are spread across all continents, including Nigeria in
Africa, five in Asia (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan), two in Latin
America (Brazil and Mexico), one in North America (U.S.A.), and one in Europe (Russia).
The major countries receiving the most immigrants in this period will be U.S.A., Canada,
U.K., Australia, Italy, the Russian Federation, France and Spain., while migrants will be
coming from countries including, Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Indonesia and
the Philippines in search of better opportunities.

Population Dynamics in Pakistan

Population dynamics in Pakistan are marked by rapid growth, a young population, high
fertility rates, and significant migration. As one of the largest and fastest-growing countries,
Pakistan ranks sixth globally and is the third largest contributor to world population growth.
Its young age structure, with many people entering reproductive years, means the population
could continue to grow quickly, despite expected declines in fertility rates. By 2050, Pakistan
is projected to become the fourth most populous country.

As of 2021, the estimated population was around 225 million. Pakistan has a young
population, with a significant proportion under the age of 25. The youth “bulge” in the
population presents opportunities for economic development if the youth are effectively
educated, skilled, and employed.

Fertility rates in Pakistan have gradually decreased, they remain relatively high compared to
other regional countries. The total fertility rate, which means the average number of children
born to a woman during her reproductive years, was estimated at 3.6 in 2020. Factors such as
cultural norms, limited access to family planning, and low female education contribute to
high fertility rates. On the positive side, infant and child mortality rates have improved due to
better healthcare services and living conditions. However, challenges still continue in
addressing maternal mortality and ensuring equal access to quality healthcare in less
developed areas.

Migration, both within the country and internationally, shapes Pakistan's population
dynamics. Rural-urban migration is done because of push factors such as limited employment
opportunities, poverty, and agricultural challenges, which causes rural residents to seek better
opportunities in urban areas. This migration pattern puts pressure on city infrastructure,
services, and resources. Internationally, many Pakistanis migrate for work in the Middle East,
Europe, and North America, with remittances playing a vital role in the economy and
supporting families back home.

Population policies in Pakistan

Population planning has been part of Pakistan's 5-year plan since 1955. Despite having one of
the oldest family planning programs in the region, limited implementation has slowed fertility
reduction and hindered demographic transition (how societies shift from high birth and
death rates to low birth and death rates).

Decade Summaries:
1. First Decade (1950-1959): The family planning program began with the NGO
Family Planning Association of Pakistan in 1953, funded by the government to set up
clinics in selected cities.
2. Second Decade (1960-1969): The government expanded family planning clinics, and
the Family Planning Council was established in 1965, launching awareness
campaigns in 1968 to reach 20 million couples.
3. Third Decade (1970-1979): Political and religious opposition suspended family
planning activities from 1977 to 1979, impacting progress.

4. Fourth Decade (1980-1989): The Population Welfare Division was created, and
provincial governments managed local services. The National Institute of Population
Studies (NIPS) was established, but leadership issues persisted.
5. Fifth Decade (1990-1999): Strong political support in the 1990s led to the
establishment of the Ministry of Population Welfare. Pakistan signed the ICPD action
plan, introduced a Reproductive Health Package, and implemented village-based
family planning services.
6. Sixth Decade (2000-2009): A Population Policy was introduced in 2002 to stabilize
population growth. The Ministry of Population Welfare achieved ISO (International
Organization for Standardization) certification for its service outlets, a first for
Pakistan’s public sector.

7. Seventh Decade (2010-Present): The Population Welfare Department in Punjab has

implemented several key initiatives to address rapid population growth:
  Expansion of Services: Providing free contraceptives, enhancing Family Welfare
Centres, and reactivating Mobile Service Units for rural outreach.

 Awareness Campaigns: Targeted media campaigns to promote family planning.

 Facility Improvements: Establishing new clinics and health centres.
 IT Advancement: A web-based contraceptive management system, e-
communication, and social media engagement were introduced.

Causes and Consequences of Urbanization

Urbanization is the process by which people move from rural areas to urban areas, leading to
the growth and expansion of cities and towns.

Causes of Urbanization:
Urbanization is a natural result of industrialization. As countries adopt mechanized farming,
they can produce more food with less labour, leading to fewer job opportunities in rural areas.
More investment flows into industries and services, which are located in urban areas. As
these sectors grow, people who once lived in rural areas migrate to cities in search of better-
paying jobs and improved living conditions.
In 2007, a significant change occurred: for the first time, more people lived in cities than in
rural areas worldwide. This shift is due to several reasons: people moving from rural areas
to cities, rural areas being relabelled as urban due to population growth, and urban areas
expanding to include former rural land. Nearly all of the world’s population growth in the
coming decades is projected to happen in the cities and towns of developing countries.

Consequences of Urbanization:
Urbanization, if well planned, can improve access to education, health care, housing, and
other services, leading to more economic opportunities. However, city life can also be dirty,
unhealthy, and dangerous. Many people moving to cities, especially in developing countries,
end up living in slums. As of 2007, there were over one billion slum dwellers worldwide,
making up about one-third of city residents, with more than 90% in developing countries.

Urban poverty can be as severe as that faced by slum residents, who often lack access to the
benefits of city life. The United Nations defines a “slum as a settlement where people live
in inadequate housing and have insufficient basic services, like clean water and
sanitation”. Slum dwellers typically live in crowded conditions without proper shelter or
reliable access to safe drinking water or toilets. Many lack tenants’ rights, making them
vulnerable to eviction and homelessness. People living in slums tend to have lower life
expectancies than those in wealthier areas, and they face higher risks from environmental
conditions like indoor air pollution and diseases caused by unsafe water.
The scale of urban poverty, already a major issue in many developing countries, is likely to
worsen, as most population growth in the 21st century will occur in cities.
Population and Development

Global population growth can have both positive and negative effects:

The negative effects:

1. Resource shortages
Population growth puts pressure on the planet’s limited resources, including food, energy,
and water.

2. Environmental issues
Pollution, deforestation, and other factors can degrade ecosystems and biodiversity.

3. Urbanization
The overcrowding in various megapolises worldwide leads to more slums and waste, as well
as putting stress on infrastructure.
4. Healthcare
A higher demand for healthcare services that may be hard to meet.

5. Climate change
Increasing consumption (especially in high-income nations) and the outcomes associated with
this contribute to an increasing level of greenhouse gas emissions.

The positive effects:

1. Larger workforce
Spurs economic expansion and promotes sustainable development.

2. Innovation and economic growth

A larger market means a higher increase in demand for products and services, which in turn
spurs innovation and contributes to economic growth.

3. Diversity
An increasing population may bring together people from various racial, ethnic, and cultural
origins, fostering greater diversity and a greater exchange of opinions.

4. Cooperation
The growing population requires a greater need for global cooperation and coordination on
critical topics including resource management, environmental protection, and economic
growth.
Population Dynamics and Mechanical Engineering
Understanding population dynamics is crucial for mechanical engineers to create solutions
that meet the needs of growing societies sustainably and efficiently. Key areas include:

1. Building Cities for More People

As cities grow, there’s more need for roads, water, and waste systems. Engineers design
sustainable systems for growing cities, such as water supply pipelines, energy-efficient
heating and air conditioning systems, and machines for waste management, balancing growth
with environmental sustainability.

2. Saving Energy for Everyone

More people need more energy. Engineers make things like solar panels and energy-efficient
cars to address increasing energy needs.

3. Using Resources Wisely

Growing populations use more resources like water and fuel. Engineers design smarter
systems, such as lightweight cars that use less fuel and farming tools that save water.

4. Providing Clean Water and Air

More people mean higher demand for clean water and fresh air. Engineers make water filters
and devices like air purifiers to control pollution.

5. Better Ways to Travel

With more people in cities, traffic grows. Engineers create trains, buses, and smart traffic
systems to reduce jams and pollution. For example, Japan’s high-speed trains help people
travel quickly and cleanly.

6. Making Healthcare Better

As populations grow, hospitals need more equipment. Engineers design medical tools, air
filters, and ventilators. During COVID-19, they made ventilators to save lives.