2024-25 EVEN SEMESTER TUTORIAL

SUBJECT CODE: 23MT2005

PROBABILITY STATISTICS AND QUEUING THEORY
Tutorial 1: Solutions
▪ Demonstrate Probability: Sample Space and Events
▪ Make use of Addition, Conditional and Multiplicative Rule
▪ Bayes Rule

Learning outcomes:
• Defining the events
• Make use of Different rules of probability in engineering problems

1. A fair die is thrown. Write the set of outcomes associated with the following events:
a. E1: a number less than 7
b. E2: a number greater than 7
c. E3: a multiple of 3
d. E4: a number less than 4
e. E5: an even number greater than 4
f. E6: a number not less than 3

Solution:

A fair die is thrown. The sample space S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

n(s)=6=Exhaustive or Total number of possible outcomes

a) Let E1 be the event that a number less than 7 is {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Therefore P(E1)=6/6=1
b) Let E2 be the event that a number greater than 7 is impossible i.e., ϕ
Therefore P(Impossible event)=P(ϕ)=0=P(E2)
c) Let E3 be the event that a multiple of 3 are {3,6}
P(E3)=2/6=1/3
d) Let E4 be the event that a number less than 4 are {1,2,3}
Therefore P(E4)=3/6=1/2
e) Let E5 be the event that a number greater than 4 are {5,6}
Therefore P(E5)=2/6=1/3
f) Let E6 be the event a number not less than 3 are {3,4,5,6}
Therefore P(E6)=4/6=2/3
2. On a weekend Rani was playing cards with her family. The deck consists of 52 cards,
If her brotherdrew one card.

a. Find the probability of getting a king of red color.

b. Find the probability of getting a face card.

c. Find the probability of getting a jack of hearts.

d. Find the probability of getting a red face card.

e. Find the probability of getting a spade.

Solution:

The deck consists of 52 cards. Then the sample space is n(s)=52 cards

Her brother drew one card in 52C1 ways. Therefore the exhaustive outcomes are 52C1=52
𝟐𝒄𝟏
a) The probability of getting a king of red color= =2/52=1/26
𝟓𝟐𝒄𝟏
1𝟐𝒄𝟏
b) The probability of getting a face card= =12/52=3/13
𝟓𝟐𝒄𝟏
(Hint: Face cards are 4kings+4Queens+4jacks=12cards)
1 𝒄𝟏
c) Find the probability of getting a jack of hearts is one card= =1/52
𝟓𝟐𝒄𝟏
d) Find the probability of getting a red face card are
(2Kings+2Queens+2Jakcs=6cards
𝟔𝒄
=𝟓𝟐 𝟏 =3/26
𝒄𝟏
1 𝟑𝒄
e) Find the probability of getting a spade is 𝟓𝟐 𝟏 =13/52=1/4
𝒄𝟏

3. From experience a stockbroker believes that under present economic conditions a

customer will
invest in tax-free bonds with a probability of 0.6 will invest mutual funds with a
probability of 0.3 and will invest in both tax-free bonds and mutual funds with probability
of 0.15. At this time, find the probability that a customer will invest
i) In either tax-free bonds or mutual funds ii) in neither tax-free bounds nor mutual
funds
iii) in only one investment iv) in tax free bonds only
v) in mutual funds only
Solution:
Let A be the event that the customer will invest in tax-free bonds with probability of 0.6
P(A)=0.6

Let B be the event that the customer will invest in mutual funds with a probability of 0.3
P(B)=0.3
The customer will invest in both tax-free bonds and mutual
funds with the probability of 0.15
P(A∩B)=0.15

i) Either tax-free bonds or mutual funds P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A∩B)=0.6+0.3-

0.15=0.75
ii) Neither tax-free bonds nor mutual funds
̅∩B
P(A ̅ )=1-P(AUB)=0.25
iii) In only one investment P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅)UP(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴̅)
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅)+P(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴̅)= P(A)-P(A∩ 𝐵)+ P(B)-P(A ∩ 𝐵)=0.6-0.15+0.3-0.15=0.6
iv) in tax free bonds only
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ )=P(A)-P(A∩ 𝐵)= 0.6-0.15=0.45
v) in mutual funds only
P(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴̅)= P(B)-P(A∩ 𝐵)= 0.3-0.15=0.15

4. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of
playing cards. Find the probability that the events A1  A2  A3 occurs where A1 is

the event that the first card is red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or

a jack, and A3 is the event that the third card

is greater than 3 but less than 7

Solution:
𝟐𝒄
Let A1 be the event that the first card is red ace=𝟓𝟐 𝟏 =2/52=1/26
𝒄𝟏

Let A2 be the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack=P(10 or

Jack)=P(10)+P(jack)
Second card has drawn after the selection of first card without replacing first
𝟒𝒄 𝟒𝒄
=P(A2/A1)= 𝟓𝟏 𝟏 + 𝟓𝟏 𝟏 =(4/51)+(4/51)=8/51
𝒄𝟏 𝒄𝟏

Let A3 be the event that the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7 is
P(4 or 5 or 6)=P(4)+P(5)+P(6)
 Third card has drawn after completion first and second card draw and without
replacing first and second card.
𝟒𝒄 𝟒𝒄 𝟒𝒄
P(A3/A1Ո A2)= 𝟓𝟎 𝟏 + 𝟓𝟎 𝟏 + 𝟓𝟎 𝟏 =12/50
𝒄𝟏 𝒄𝟏 𝒄𝟏

Therefore the probability that the events A1Ո A2 Ո A3 is

P(A1Ո A2 Ո A3)=(1/26)*(8/51)*(12/50)=96/66300=0.00145

.
5 A committee of 5 is chosen from a group of 8 men and 4 women. What is the
probability that the
group contains a majority of women?
Solution:
There are totally 12 people. Among them we have to choose 5 such that majority would
be women. Hence the possible selection of men and women will be either:
1 men and 4 women or 2 men and 3 women.
𝟖𝒄𝟏 ∗𝟒𝒄𝟒
P(1 Men and 4 Women)= =8/792
𝟏𝟐𝒄𝟓

𝟖𝒄𝟐 ∗𝟒 𝒄𝟑
P(2 Men and 3 Women)= =112/792
𝟏𝟐 𝒄𝟓

Therefore the probability of selecting majority of women ie., 5 people is

=(8/792)+(112/792)=120/792=5/33=0.1515

6. A data science team is working on a model to predict whether an email is spam or not.
They are using
two independent features: The presence of the word "offer “(Feature A) and the presence
of a suspicious link (Feature B). The probability that an email contains the word "offer
“(Feature A) is 0.6.
The probability that an email contains a suspicious link (Feature B) is 0.4.
a) What is the probability that an email contains both the word "offer" and a suspicious
link?
b) What is the probability that an email contains either the word "offer" or a suspicious link
or both?
c) What is the probability that an email contains neither the word "offer" nor a suspicious
link?
 Solution:
a) Probability of both features being present (A and B):
Since the events are independent P(A∩B)= P(A)∩ 𝑃(B)
∴ P(A∩B)= (0.6)*(0.4) = 0.24
b) Probability of at least one feature being present (A or B or
both): P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A∩B)
∴ P(AUB) = 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.24 = 0.76
c) Probability of neither feature being present (neither A nor B):
̅∩B
P(A ̅ )=1-P(AUB)== 1 − 0.76 = 0.24

7. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at 4 different locations within the
city limits.
The radar traps at each of the location L1 , L2 , L3 , and L4 are operated 40%, 30%, 20%

and 10% of the time and if a person who is speeding on his way to work has
probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively, of passing through these locations,
what is the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket?

Solution:
Let S= receive a speeding ticket
Given that,
The radar traps operated at each location and its probabilities are
P(L1)=0.40, P(L2)=0.30, P(L3)=0.20, P(L4)=0.10
P(S/L1)=0.2, P(S/L2)=0.1, P(S/L3)=0.5, P(S/L4)=0.2,

P(Receive a speeding ticket)=(0.4)(0.2)+(0.3)(0.1)+(0.2)(0.5)+(0.1)(0.2)=0.23.

8. A data science team is developing a predictive model to determine whether a user will click
on an online advertisement. The likelihood of a user clicking on an ad depends on the type of
device they are using. The team has categorized the devices into three types: desktop, tablet,
and mobile. The probabilities of a user using each type of device are as follows:
The probability that a user uses a desktop is 0.5.
The probability that a user uses a tablet is 0.2.
The probability that a user uses a mobile device is 0.3.
Also,
 • The probability of clicking on an ad given that the user is on a desktop is 0.04.
• The probability of clicking on an ad given that the user is on a tablet is 0.06.
• The probability of clicking on an ad given that the user is on a mobile device is 0.1.
What is the overall probability that a user will click on an ad?

Solution:
The total probability that a user clicks on an ad can be found
using the law of total probability, which states:
P(C)=P(C/D)P(D)+P(C/T)P(T)+P(C/M)P(M)
where
P(C)-the probability of clicking on an ad.
P(C/D), P(C/T), P(C/M) are the conditional probabilities of clicking on an ad given the device
type.
P(D), P(T), P(M) are the probabilities of using a desktop, tablet, and mobile device,
respectively.
∴ P(C) = 0.04 ∗ 0.5 + 0.06 ∗ 0.2 + 0.1 ∗ 0.3 = 0.062
So, the overall probability that a user will click on an ad is 0.062.