Thayer US Navy and China Coast Guard in West Philippine Sea
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer US Navy and China Coast Guard in West Philippine Sea
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
[email protected] US Navy and China Coast Guard
in West Philippine Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 2, 2025
Last Sunday (29 December), a United States Naval Ship (USNS) sailed near the
Philippine’s coastline at the same time the China Coast Guard (CCG) conducted what
it claims was a patrol around Scarborough Shoal. The CCG patrol came days after
Beijing warned Manila against resisting the removal of the U.S. Typhon missile system
deployed in the Philippines.
The USNS Victorious was monitored around 1:37 a.m. near the Luzon landmass,
according to SeaLight director and retired US Air Force Colonel Ray Powell.
In a report by The Inquirer, Powel said the presence of the USNS Victorious is “not too
unusual,” as it was last seen in the same area in September.
The US ship's presence was noted when China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
spokesperson Mao Ning warned that China “will not sit on its hands when its security
interests are in danger or under threat.”
Ning was referring to the US Mid-Range Capability missile launcher stationed in the
Philippines in April for joint-military exercises. “Let me stress that the Typhon MRC
missile system can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. It is not a defensive
weapon, but a strategic and offensive one,” Ning said.
On Saturday evening, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año dismissed Ning’s
comments as “unfounded” and “pure speculation.”
We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. What are the implications of a U.S. ship sailing in close proximity to Chinese vessels
in the West Philippine Sea? Could this lead to violent actions that might escalate into
a conflict in these disputed waters?
ANSWER: All Chinese and U.S. flagged vessels operating at sea are bound to respect
the Convention on the International Responsibility for Preventing Collisions at Seas
(COLREGS). This applies to the West Philippine Sea. If both ship captains operate their
vessels professionally while in close proximity there should be no incidents that lead
to an escalation.
In January 2024, senior U.S. and China military officials resumed the U.S.-China
Defense Policy Coordination Talks at the Pentagon that were suspended in September
2
2021. This led to the resumption of the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement
Working Group talks in Hawaii which had also been suspended in December 2021.
These talks focus on safe and professional air and naval interactions between US and
Chinese military forces.
There have been several Chinese-instigated maritime incidents against US-crewed
vessels in the South China Sea over the past two decades, notably the harassment of
the USNS Impeccable in March 2009. None of these incidents has led to violence or a
loss of life.
The reactivation of the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement Working Group is
an indication that both sides are working to prevent the escalation of any incident at
sea.
Q2. What are America’s intentions in sailing in close proximity to Chinese vessels in
the West Philippine Sea?
ANSWER: First and foremost, the U.S. Navy is demonstrating its determination to
exercise freedom of navigation where ever international law allows. Second, the U.S.
is demonstrating support for the Philippines as an ally under their 1951 Mutual
Defense Treaty. Third, the U.S. is signaling to China that the United States is
monitoring Chinese naval activities closely. The USNS Victorious is an ocean
surveillance vessel equipped with the SURTASS sonar array.
Q3. Could the US patrol also be seen as a signal that the U.S. has no intention of
removing the Typhon missile system from the Philippines?
ANSWER: The U.S. deployment of the Typhon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile
system to the Philippines took place under the remit of the Enhanced Defense
Cooperation Agreement that allows the temporary stationing of U.S. armed forces and
their equipment in the Philippines. The Typhon missile system was first deployed to
the Philippines in April, as part of Exercise Salaknib 24. The Typhon MRC is currently
located in Illocos Norte.
In December, the Philippines announced plans to procure the Typhon MRC missile
system. The Typhon system can fire two types of missiles, the Standard Missile (SM-
6), with a maximum range of 500 kilometers, and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile
with an extended range of 2,500 km.
The future status of the Typhon MRC in the Philippine is a matter for the two
governments. The United States has the prerogative to withdraw the missile system
at any time to suit its operational requirements. The Marcos Jr. government has the
authority to ask the U.S. to remove the Typhon system at any time but is unlikely to
do so if this gives the appearance of caving in to China.
The most likely scenario is for the continuing deployment of the Typhon MRC with the
concurrence of both governments, perhaps until the Philippines procures its own
system from the United States.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “US Navy and China Coast Guard in West
Philippine Sea,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 2, 2025. All background
3
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
