J. Earth Syst. Sci.

(2022)131:3 Ó Indian Academy of Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01744-6 (0123456789().,-volV)(0123456789(
).,-volV)

Multi-criteria approach using GIS for macro-level

seismic hazard assessment of Kachchh Rift Basin,
Gujarat, western India – First step towards
earthquake disaster mitigation

VASU PANCHOLI* , NISARG BHATT , PAWAN SINGH and SUMER CHOPRA

Seismic Hazard and Microzonation Group, Institute of Seismological Research, Raisan, Gandhinagar,
Gujarat, India.
*Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected]

MS received 11 January 2020; revised 7 June 2021; accepted 4 August 2021

The earthquakes have the most dominating societal and economic impact on the built environ-
ment. The earthquakes in an intraplate region are infrequent but often damaging. The uncon-
trolled urban growth in cities due to population explosion and migration makes it necessary to
assess seismic hazards in an active region. It provides parameters for seismic safety and helps in
disaster mitigation. The Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) of western India is a seismically active
intraplate region where many damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past (Mw 7.8 in 1819,
Mw 7.6 in 2001). The KRB hosts many economic corridors and ports. Though the region has been
put in a category with highest seismic hazard, the entire region is not prone to high hazards. The
primary objective of the study is to integrate major attributes that inCuence seismic hazard on a
GIS platform and prepare a multi-criteria-based hazard map by multi-criteria decision process
named as analytical hierarchy process (AHP) developed by Saaty. In this study, the information
about some of the attributes like peak ground acceleration (PGA), geology and geomorphology,
and tsunami hazard is taken from published literature, whereas shear wave velocity to 30 m depth
(Vs)30 and ampliBcation factor were obtained through empirical relationships. The integration of
these different attributes was performed, and weights were assigned depending on their contri-
bution to the seismic hazard. The multi-criteria approach reveals that the southwestern part
comprising of Kachchh mainland has a low hazard as compared to central and northern parts and
almost 1 million people and around 0.18 million houses are exposed to moderate to high hazard.
Large swaths of land are prone to liquefaction hazard. The corridor comprising of Bhuj, Bhachau
and Rapar needs seismic microzonation. This macro level hazard map will be beneBcial for
the urban planners and government authorities to decide the areas, where seismic microzonation
or site-speciBc studies are required that would help in mitigating earthquake disasters in the
future.
Keywords. Intraplate; Kachchh Rift Basin; seismic hazard assessment; geographical information
system.
3 Page 2 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

1. Introduction of Ahmedabad (*300 km east of Bhuj), Jamnagar

(*100 km south-southeast of Bhuj), Rajkot (*160
The Gujarat state is situated in the westernmost km southeast), Surendranagar (*200 km east-
part of peninsular India. Though it is 400 km away southeast), Surat (*390 km southeast), and Patan
from the active plate boundary, seismically it is one (*260 km east-northeast). The total economic loss
of the most active intraplate regions of the world. was estimated to be approx. US 10 billion dollars
The Gujarat state is bordered by the Arabian Sea (Rastogi et al. 2001). The seismological activity in
in the western and southern parts, comprising of Kachchh is continuing and the earthquakes are
almost 1600 km coastal area. The region has many migrated to newer areas (Rastogi et al. 2013b). In
industries with a strong base of steel, power, all these damaging earthquakes, it was found that
chemical, and petroleum. Based on geology and the damage was not uniform across Kachchh.
tectonics, Gujarat comprises of three distinct The earthquakes cannot be predicted, although
regions, Kachchh, Saurashtra and Mainland (Merh we can minimize their damage potential by iden-
1995). The Kachchh is situated in the northern tifying the zones where the potential risk of damage
part and is 400 km east of the Makran subduction is likely to be high (Moustafa et al. 2016; Bhatt
zone and the Chaman fault system, which is an et al. 2019). The seismic hazard assessment (SHA)
active plate boundary (Malik et al. 2017). of any region may prevent the loss of human lives
The KRB falls in zone V as per the seismic and damage to the built environment by taking
zoning map of India (BIS 2002) where M8 earth- preventive measures before an impending earth-
quakes may happen. After Himalaya, Kachchh quake (Pancholi et al. 2020). The SHA provides
is, seismically, the most active region of the information about the level of ground motions
Indian subcontinent. The region is prone to large expected in a given region within the given window
earthquakes. In the last two centuries, it has wit- of time, depending on the method adopted (Bhatt
nessed three damaging earthquakes, namely, 1819 et al. 2019). The results of such assessments are
Kachchh (Mw 7.8), 1956 Anjar (Mw 6.0) and 2001 maps that show peak ground accelerations (PGA),
Bhuj (Mw 7.6) earthquakes. Besides these, the spectral accelerations (SA) at different periods or
region has experienced several moderate earth- may provide site-speciBc response spectra for
quakes too (Rajendran et al. 2001). The earthquake engineering use (Choudhury et al. 2018). The SHA
in 1819 caused massive loss and around 1500 people is generally carried out either deterministically or
were killed in the Bhuj city. This earthquake is by employing the probabilistic methodology. The
considered as the second largest of the nineteenth deterministic approach of the seismic hazard
century after 1811–1812 New Madrid (Johnston assessment (DSHA) considers the worst-case sce-
et al. 1994). This earthquake has changed the nario of a maximum credible earthquake based on
morphology of the Kachchh with the formation of the tectonic environment. It does not consider the
80-km long bund called Allah Bund and it dammed maximal likelihood of an earthquake. This
the Puran river (Bilham 1998). It was felt as far as approach has the advantage that it does not
Kolkata. The 1956 earthquake near Anjar caused require data representing time-dependent pro-
115 causalities and hundreds were injured. About cesses such as rate of earthquake occurrence or
1350 houses were damaged in Anjar alone and fault slip rate (Yeats et al. 1997). The drawback of
almost 20,000 had minor damage (Chung and Gao this method is that it does not consider the tem-
1995). poral behaviour of seismic events. There are many
During the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, almost 20,000 studies carried out in the Gujarat region to esti-
people died, 166,836 were injured and almost mate the hazard using deterministic approach
339,000 buildings, major roads and many bridges (Parvez et al. 2003; Chopra et al. 2012; Kolathayar
were damaged (EERI 2001). Out of a total of 884 et al. 2012; Shukla and Choudhury 2012). After
villages located in this region, 518 suffered signifi- recent improvements in the DSHA, a new method
cant damages, 178 were destroyed, and another 165 called neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment
were damaged to the extent of 70% or more (EERI (NDSHA) is evolved, which is widely used in Italy
2001). Several cities and towns in Kachchh, (Panza et al. 2013; Panza 2017). The method pro-
including Bhuj, Bhachau, Rapar, Anjar, and duces a realistic output of the ground motions due
Gandhidham, experienced extensive destruction. to an earthquake of a given magnitude, at a given
The earthquake caused considerable damage in distance (Panza et al. 2013; Panza 2017; Choud-
other parts of the state as well, including the cities hury et al. 2018). In this method, a seismic source
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 3 of 20 3

and wave propagation are modelled and a quick characterization, site response and strong ground
assessment can be obtained. The other most pop- motion prediction were carried out (Parvez et al.
ular SHA method based on probabilistic approach, 2003, 2017; Mandal et al. 2004, 2009; Joshi et al.
termed as probabilistic seismic hazard assessment 2007; NDMA 2011; Kolathayar et al. 2012; Mohan
(PSHA) is popular among engineering community. 2014; Choudhury et al. 2016, 2018; Magrin et al.
The PSHA method provides information about the 2016). The seismic hazard studies in the Kachchh
level of ground motions expected in a particular region too have been carried out by many
region over a speciBc period of time, based on past researchers. Petersen et al. (2004) carried out a
seismicity. The method considers areal or line sensitivity analysis for the Kachchh region with
sources or both. A region-speciBc ground motion probabilistic hazard model using three source
prediction equation (GMPE) is required to esti- models. Tripathi (2006) estimated seismic hazard
mate ground motions. Here recurrence rates of using probabilistic models of Weibull, Gamma, and
earthquakes of different magnitudes are deter- Lognormal. Yadav et al. (2008) using stochastic
mined. The Gujarat region had been explored by models studied the probability of exceedance at
many researchers using PSHA studies (Petersen different time intervals for three different regions of
et al. 2004; Nath et al. 2008; Yadav et al. 2008; Gujarat namely, Kachchh, Saurashtra and Main-
NDMA 2011; Sitharam et al. 2015; Bashir and land Gujarat. Chopra et al. (2013) carried out
Basu 2018). deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)
The DSHA or PSHA methods provide informa- and provided scenario maps based on simulated
tion about the level of expected ground motions at accelerogram. Mohan (2014) has prepared a
a site of interest or in a region at bedrock level. To deterministic hazard map of the Kachchh region
obtain the information at the surface, which is using a semi-empirical technique. Magrin et al.
ultimately required for mitigation and planning (2016) have used the neo-deterministic method to
purposes, geotechnical and geophysical surveys are assess seismic hazard in Gujarat. Choudhury et al.
required to be carried out either at a site or in a (2016) have used the empirical Green’s function
region based on the objective. The economic cost to methodology to estimate seismic hazard in the
carry out such survey over a city or region is huge epicentral zone of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake.
and uneconomical. Also, the hazard at a particular Recently, Choudhury et al. (2018) have reviewed
site depends on other factors like type of soil, depth seismic hazard studies carried out in Gujarat by
of groundwater level and distance from the coast. various researchers in the last 3–4 decades and
These issues are not addressed in the DSHA or presented constraints on the level of ground
PSHA methods. The multi-criteria approach for motions expected in three regions, Kachchh,
seismic hazard assessment is a novel method to Saurashtra and Mainland.
evaluate the seismic hazard of any region quickly The earthquake potential of Kachchh is highest
and to generate the Brst level micro zonation map among all the intraplate regions, and it becomes
of a region using the existing information that are essential to assess the seismic hazard in this region.
available. It uses the analytical hierarchy process From studies carried out earlier, we found that
(AHP) introduced by Saaty (1988). Instead of hazard is not uniform throughout Kachchh and
preparing the ground acceleration maps, hazard mostly, only one parameter, PGA was considered
maps are generated based on many criteria, which for the evaluation of seismic hazard. Liquefaction,
directly/indirectly enhances the hazard. The which was widespread during the 2001 Bhuj
method ranks different attributes contributing to earthquake, was not considered in these studies.
overall hazard based on its damage potential. The Also, Kachchh has almost 400 km long coastline
method has the advantage that it provides quickly and many important ports are located on the
Brst-hand information about pockets in a region coastal land. These coastal regions have experi-
that are more vulnerable to damages during an enced tsunami in the historical past. In November
impending large earthquake and where mitigation 1945, the tsunami waves reached up to 11–11.5 m
measures can be planned. height in Kachchh, Gujarat (Pendse 1948). This
After 2001, Bhuj earthquake, the Kachchh aspect was also missing in the previous seismic
region was explored by many geoscientists for hazard assessment. In view of this, we found that
deciphering crustal structure, identifying causa- the hazard assessment needs an integrated
tive and active faults in the region (Mandal and approach to delineate higher risk zones. Seismic
Horton 2007). Many studies related to site microzonation is a vital tool to assess micro-level
3 Page 4 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

seismic hazard, which can be utilized for town is believed that the basin has evolved during the last
planning and designing of earthquake resistant 135 Ma (Biswas 1987; Kothyari et al. 2016). Geolog-
structures (Bhatt et al. 2019). However, it is time- ically, it comprises of formations from Mesozoic to
consuming, manpower-intensive and costly as it Quaternary periods. Six major uplifts have been
requires extensive geophysical and geotechnical recognized in the Kachchh, which have given rise to
investigations in the region. To carry out seismic the highlands namely, Kachchh Mainland, Wagad,
microzonation of entire Kachchh (45,674 km2), it and the four blocks of the Island Belt, i.e., Pachham,
may take a decade and may cost millions of dollars. Khadir, Bela and Chorar (Karanth and Gadhavi
There are two important ports present in 2007) as depicted in Bgure 1. The Mesozoic sediments
Kachchh, named as Mundra and Kandla. The mainly cover the region, followed by the Deccan
population of Kachchh is around 2 million as per volcanics, the Palaeogene and Neogene sediments
the 2011 census, with a decadal growth rate of (Tertiary) and the Quaternary sediments (Bgure 1).
32.16%. After the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, many The Mesozoic sediments comprise mainly of con-
industries were established in the region due to the glomerate, sandstone, shale, siltstone, clay, lime-
creation of special economic zones (SEZ). The stone, marl, etc. The Deccan volcanics are charac-
landscape of Kachchh has now changed. It is now terized by alkaline intrusive, basaltic Cows, basaltic/
having many big industries that are contributing a doleritic and olivine gabbro intrusive and Andesitic
lot to India’s growth. Most of the oil is imported Trachyte. The Pleistocene sediments include pre-
through Kandla port, whereas Mundra port is dominantly calcareous rocks of the Miliolite Forma-
importing mostly coal. Any massive earthquake in tion. The youngest sediments belong to the Holocene
the region may disrupt growth and will aAect the period and area symbolized by the Rann clay of
economy. In view of this, the seismic hazard marine, Cuvio-marine, Cuvial and aeolian environ-
assessment of the region is essential. ment. The coastal zone comprises of unconsolidated
Looking into the need, we have attempted to carry coastal and quaternary Cuvial sediments.
out multi-criteria-based seismic hazard assess- The key structures in the Kachchh region are
ment utilizing available database, created by inde- Kachchh Mainland Fault (KMF), Island Belt Fault
pendent investigations. In the present work, we (IBF), Katrol Hill Fault (KHF), South Wagad Fault
integrated the available information like geology, (SWF) and Gedi Fault (GF) (Biswas 1987) (Bgure 1).
geomorphology, soil type, seismicity, tectonics, peak The region has low seismicity but high hazard as the
ground acceleration, tsunami vulnerability and region is prone to large earthquakes and witnessed
ampliBcation factor on a geographical information three damaging earthquakes in the last 200 years
system (GIS) platform to generate a rapid Brst-order (1819 Mw 7.8, 1956 Mw 6.0, 2001 Mw 7.6) and many
seismic hazard map of the Kachchh region, Gujarat, moderate earthquakes. The seismic activity is con-
western India. This macro-level seismic hazard tinuing even after more than 10 years since the
assessment provided us with details of the vulnera- deadliest 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Rastogi et al.
ble zones where seismic microzonation may be 2013b). Besides the aftershocks of the 2001 earth-
planned. The results are validated in some pockets quake, the seismicity along several large and small
where geophysical investigations were carried out. faults in Kachchh has increased in the Brst decade of
The Bnal seismic hazard map may be utilized for the 21st century due to stress perturbation caused by
urban development, construction of normal build- 2001 earthquake (ISR Annual Report 2014–2017).
ings and identiBcation of potential sites for micro- The present seismicity is clustered in the eastern
zonation. This information will help administrators segment of the disturbed zone of Kachchh Mainland
in land-use planning and reducing or minimizing the Fault (KMF) and South Wagad Fault (SWF), sur-
eAect from future damaging earthquakes in the rounding parts of the Rapar and Bhachau regions
region. (Rastogi et al. 2013b) as depicted in Bgure 2. The
Wagad area is reactivated after the 2001 Bhuj
earthquake (Mandal et al. 2004). The seismicity
2. Geology and seismotectonic setup suggests that the NWF, SWF, and the eastern part of
the KMF are the most active (Rastogi et al. 2013b).
The Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) is bounded by two A study of seismicity data from almost two
major faults named as a Nagar Parkar Fault (NPF) in decades reveals that overall assessment of seismic
the northern part of the basin and the North Kathi- hazard in this region is essential for mitigation and
awar Fault (NKF) in the southern part of the basin. It development in the Kachchh region.
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 5 of 20 3

Figure 1. Location and geological map of Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India (after GSI 2002).

Figure 2. Seismotectonic map of Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India (Rastogi et al. 2013a) (note: black line represents
major faults, the round symbol represents earthquakes of Mw 4 to 6 and red star represents earthquakes [Mw 6).

3. Generation of database velocity (Vs30), geology and geomorphology, soil

type, liquefaction potential and tsunami have been
There are different parameters which inCuence the used for seismic hazard assessment of the study
seismic hazard of the particular area. In this area. The parameters are chosen based on their
investigation, the parameters like Peak ground inCuence to the seismic hazard at the study area
acceleration (PGA), ampliBcation, shear wave (table 1). The database has been collected from the
3 Page 6 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

available information previously published by dif- Further, if the groundwater is at shallow depth,
ferent researchers detailed in table 2. the chances of liquefaction are very high. A surface
soil map of the region is prepared from available
information to delineate soil types (NBSS and LUP
3.1 Soil 1994). It is observed that the Kachchh region is
mostly consisting of a calcareous, loamy, sandy and
The soil plays an important role in overall seismic mixed type of soils (Bgure 3).
hazard and if conditions are favourable, may cause Geomorphologically, the study area is divided
liquefaction and many times amplify ground into geomorphological features like alluvial plain,
motions. Generally, the grain size distribution and pediplains, Banni plains, piedmont zone, mud Cat,
groundwater depth are the primary factors for the valley Bll, salt Cats (Rann), dissected hills and salt
earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard. Since the encrustation as shown in Bgure 4 (Kar 2011). The
region is earthquake-prone, the unconsolidated Rann is the most distinctive feature of the
soils of the coastal, mud Cats and Rann area are Kachchh, having a Cat terrain hardly beyond 3–4
potential candidate sites for high seismic hazard as m above sea level. It covers the northern and the
these types of soils amplify the ground motions and eastern parts of the region and is called as Great
may induce liquefaction. Rann and little Rann, respectively. Mostly, the

Table 1. Details of the parameters used for the investigation.

Sl. Name of the parameter that Parameters chosen for

no. inCuences seismic hazard present study (yes/no) Reason for choosing/not choosing the parameter
1 Peak ground acceleration Yes The level of ground motions expected in a region is essential for
(PGA) the seismic hazard assessment. This is the primary parameter
that controls the damage. The engineering community routinely
uses the PGA.
2 AmpliBcation Yes AmpliBcation of seismic waves depends mainly on local site
conditions and the level of ground motions. It is most important
parameter which inCuences the ground motion of the region.
3 Shear wave velocity to 30 m Yes The shear-wave velocity (Vs) has long been known to be an
depth (Vs30) essential parameter for evaluating the dynamic properties of
soils.
4 Geology and Yes The local geology directly contribute towards the hazard in the
geomorphology region. The variation in the thickness of the alluvium as well as
type of lithology directly impact the site response within the
region.
5 Basement depth No The presence of a basement at depth of hundreds of meters seems
scarcely relevant for site response evaluation. What is more
relevant is at which depth a layer with velocity [760 m/s is
present.
6 Groundwater depth Yes If the groundwater table is shallow and soils are sandy, the sites
may liquefy during strong shaking. The region has experienced
liquefaction during past earthquakes.
7 Tectonic regime No The same is considered while estimating PGA using PSHA or
DSHA. In view of this, it is not considered separately.
8 Liquefaction potential Yes The coastal and Rann areas in Gujarat are potential sites for
liquefaction.
9 Soil type Yes Unconsolidated soils in top few meters can cause significant
damage to properties. The unconsolidated soils of the coastal,
mud Cats and Rann area are potential candidate sites for high
seismic.
10 Tsunami Yes The west coast of India including coastal region of Kachchh has
experienced many tsunamis in the historical past.
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 7 of 20 3

Table 2. Source of parameters used for the investigation.

Spatial resolution
of dataset
Attribute (grid interval) Source of dataset
Peak ground acceleration 0.2° 9 0.2° Chopra et al. (2012)
AmpliBcation factor Prepared by authors using Choi and
Stewart (2005) method
Shear wave velocity (Vs30) USGS (from Allen and Wald (2009) method)
Tsunami Singh et al. (2007)
Geology Karanth and Gadhavi (2007), GSI (2002)
Geomorphology Kar (2011), ISRO (20052006), CGWB (2016)
Soil type National Bureau of Soil Survey (1994)
Liquefaction Prepared by authors using Youd and
Perkins (1978) and Bhatt et al. (2019) method
Ground water depth Central Ground Water Board (2016)

Figure 3. Surface soil map of Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India (modiBed after NBSS and LUP 1994).

Rann surface is covered with salt encrustation. The the higher content of the Bne sediments are
Gandhidham, Bhachau and northern parts of the encountered. Excessive leaching of the salts from
Rapar towns are on the alluvial plain. The cities the groundwater and sub-soil regions due to high to
like Mandvi, Mundra, Anjar, Jakhau and Lakhpat very high evaporation has developed salt encrus-
are on the coast, where mud Cat and salt-encrusted tations, almost 10–20 cm thick. The Bhuj city is
alluvial plains, that are deBned by the presence of situated near many dissected hills. The alluvial
3 Page 8 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

Figure 4. Geomorphological map of Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India (modiBed after Kar 2011).

fans are associated with the Katrol Hill Fault and uses (Vs30) to classify sites for engineering design.
Kachchh Mainland Fault (Thakkar et al. 1999; The geophysical surveys to determine Vs30 at
Malik et al. 2001). The southwestern part of the every location in Kachchh are very difBcult and
study area is composed of pediplains, which cover expensive. In few pockets, such investigations
major part of the area near Bhuj and Anjar were carried out for site-speciBc studies and
(Bgure 4). microzonation. Here, we have prepared Vs30 map
(Bgure 5) of our study region using slope as a
proxy (Allen and Wald 2009; Zaman and War-
3.2 Shear wave velocity nitchai 2017). They correlated Vs30 values against
the topographic slope and then developed
The characteristic property of the subsurface parameters for the active and stable continent
sediments plays a vital role in earthquake hazard regions. It is observed that Vs30 varied between
studies. The ampliBcation potential of a site 150 (Rann sediments) and 950 m/s (volcanic hills)
depends on local seismic site conditions (Allen and in the studied region. The Vs30 values are vali-
Wald 2009). The shear-wave velocity (Vs) has dated at many points where MASW surveys were
long been known to be an essential parameter for carried out.
evaluating the dynamic properties of soils (Martin
and Diehl 2004). In-situ geophysical measure-
ments can be carried out for Vs measurements but 3.3 Peak ground acceleration
it is quite expensive. So, it is not feasible eco-
nomically, to measure Vs at every location. Time- The level of ground motions expected in a region is
averaged shear-wave velocity to 30 m depth essential for seismic hazard assessment. The engi-
(Vs30), nowadays is used routinely in seismic neering community routinely uses the peak ground
hazard studies. This parameter provides informa- acceleration for assessing seismic hazard. For our
tion about the stiAness of the upper layers. Both study, we have considered the PGA values esti-
National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program mated by Chopra et al. (2012). Chopra et al. (2012)
(NEHRP) and Uniform Building code (UBC 1997) have considered 12 active faults for simulating
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 9 of 20 3

Figure 5. Map of the time-averaged shear-wave velocity to 30 m (Vs30) for the Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India
(after Allen and Wald 2007).

strong ground motions in a grid using a modiBed where PHAr is the peak horizontal acceleration in
stochastic method incorporating site-speciBc units of g; b, c, and Vref are regression parameters;
ground motion parameters. The peak ground gi and ij are the random eAect terms for earth-
acceleration (PGA) values are estimated at bed- quake event i and the intra-event model residual
rock level (Vs 760 m/s) for the entire Kachchh for motion j in the event i, respectively. Using
region. The values vary between 0.4 and 1.15 g as equation (1), we prepared an ampliBcation map of
shown in Bgure 6. The PGA value depends on site’s the active Kachchh region (Bgure 7) utilizing Vs30
proximity to an active fault. information and PGA values at bedrock. The
ampliBcation in the studied region is found to vary
between 0.9 and 2.2. The ampliBcation values are
3.4 AmpliBcation factor validated from ground response analysis carried
out at few sites in this region (Mohan et al. 2017;
The ampliBcation at a site depends on the level ISR 2018–19).
of ground motions and impedance contrast
(Narayan 2010). The ampliBcation of ground 3.5 Liquefaction
motion over soft sediments occurs fundamentally
due to high impedance contrast between the During a large earthquake, liquefaction is one of
sediments and the underlying bedrock resulting the primary factors that damages structures
in trapping of seismic waves causing reverbera- built on loose and saturated sand deposits
tion and scattering of the incident energy (Nath (Bourenane et al. 2018). The liquefaction mainly
et al. 2008). This ampliBcation can be estimated depends on geological conditions and depth of
by numerical or empirical methods (Tsurugi et al. groundwater (Bgure 8). During the 2001 Bhuj
2004). Choi and Stewart (2005) developed an earthquake, widespread liquefaction was observed
empirical relationship to estimate the ampliBca- in many parts of the Kachchh, particularly in
tion factor using Vs30 and PGA information at a areas occupied by Rann sediments and mud
site. The uniBed model of Choi and Stewart Cats (Mandal et al. 2004; Narayan and Sharma
(2005) for the ampliBcation factor is given in 2004).
equation (1) as: In this work, we have prepared a regional level
    liquefaction potential map of the Kachchh region

Vs30ij PHArij
ln Fij ¼ cln þ bln þ gi þ ij using geological conditions, type of deposit, geo-
Vref 0:1 morphology, age, and groundwater level. The
ð1Þ groundwater level of 2016 has been utilized for this
3 Page 10 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

Figure 6. Peak ground acceleration (a) at surface and (b) at bedrock for Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India (after
Chopra et al. 2012).

Figure 7. Distribution of ampliBcation factor for the Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India.

study obtained from Central Ground Water Board modiBed by Youd and Perkins (1978) method.
(CGWB 2016) (Bgure 8). The method was initially They inferred that, the depositional and hydro-
proposed by Youd and Hoose (1977) and later logical environment along with the age of the soil
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 11 of 20 3

Figure 8. Groundwater level in the study area (after Central Ground Water Board 2016).

Figure 9. Regional level liquefaction susceptibility map of Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India.

deposits, contribute to liquefaction susceptibility. area occupied by alluvial plains, mud Cat and Rann
Matsuoka et al. (2015) also proposed a method for show a higher chance of liquefaction. In contrast,
determining the probability of liquefaction using the areas occupied by hills and hard rocks of older
engineering-based geomorphologic classiBcation age are not susceptible to liquefaction (Bgure 9).
and historical seismicity data, which is a modiB-
cation of the Youd and Perkins (1978) method. A 3.6 Tsunami hazard
similar attempt was also made for assessing lique-
faction hazard mapping of the Sabarmati basin of The coastal areas of the Gujarat state contribute to
Gujarat by Bhatt et al. (2019). The liquefaction the state’s economy and growth, as it comprises of
potential map for the study area is prepared and many industrial zones with maritime, transport
shown in Bgure 9. In our study, it is seen that the and freight networks, port facilities, road and rail
3 Page 12 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

corridors, petroleum industries, and reBneries. The less important, it is rated by the reciprocals of 1–5.
west coast of India including coastal region of The normalized rank is assigned to each element and
Kachchh has experienced many tsunamis in the a pairwise comparison matrix is created. To derive,
historical past (Rastogi and Jaiswal 2006). The the weighted sums of the ratings of each area, cal-
prominent are 326 BC (Lisitzin 1974), 1608 AD culated weights are used. These weights also add up
(Murty and Bapat 1999), 1668 (Oldham 1883), to 1 and can be used in deriving the weighted sums of
1524 (Bendick and Bilham 1999), 1819 (Macmurdo rating for each region of polygons of the mapped
1821), 1845 (Nelson 1846), 1945 (Murty and Bapat layers (Ganapathy 2011; Bhatt et al. 2019). The
1999) and 1983 (Rastogi and Jaiswal 2006). The weights assigned to different parameters for the
main source is Makran Subduction zone. A major present study are shown in table 3.
landslide in the sea due to an earthquake may also The index for hazard is prepared after integrat-
trigger tsunami. On 28th November 1945, a great ing geological, geotechnical and seismological fac-
earthquake (Mw 8.1) occurred in the Makran tors. Depending upon the contribution of each
region, resulting in a deadly tsunami that struck element towards hazard, ranks are assigned. To
the coast of western Indian peninsula and swept ensure that no layer inCuence beyond the deter-
away local communities and important coastal mined weight, the ranks are assigned between 0
infrastructures. The tsunami waves attained the and 1 within a theme (Nath 2004; Bhatt et al.
height of 11–11.5 m at Gulf of Kachchh (Jaiswal 2019). Each feature has been normalized using the
et al. 2009). Singh et al. (2007) prepared inundation following equation:
maps for the coastal region of Gujarat state for
different wave heights and shows the possible areas Rj  Rmin
xi ¼ : ð2Þ
of inundation. In our study, we have used their Rmax  Rmin
inundation maps of possible maximum wave height
of 10 m and included this as an attribute for Here, Rj represents raw rating, Rmin and Rmax show
assessing seismic hazard in coastal region. the minimum and the maximum rating of the
particular layer (Nath 2004; Mohanty et al. 2007;
Bhatt et al. 2019).
4. Methodology Further, a spreadsheet is made to calculate the
weights of each layer with the pairwise comparison.
The aim of the study is to assess the seismic hazard at After averaging the values of each in the raw
macro level in Kachchh intraplate region using matrix and calculating the principal Eigen vector,
available hazard attributes and multi-criteria deci- the weights are obtained for PGA (0.285714), AF
sion process named as analytical hierarchy process (0.238095), tsunami hazard (0.190476), geomor-
(AHP) developed by Saaty (1988). This method phology and geology (0.142857), liquefaction
utilizes pairwise comparison between two parame- (0.095238), and soil type (0.047619) (table 3). The
ters using a hierarchical structure. The comparison obtained normalized values of thematic layers are
is based on the importance of an element based on its shown in table 4. To prepare the seismic hazard
contribution to the hazards. A similar type of map of the Kachchh region, the values collected
approach for seismic hazard assessment is followed from the matrix are put up on a GIS platform to
by many researchers for different regions (Nath integrate different thematic map layers. The inte-
2004; Mohanty et al. 2007; Anbazhagan et al. 2010; gration is done by succeeding UNION (set theory)
Ganapathy 2011; Moustafa et al. 2016; Bhatt et al. and overlay procedure in GIS (Nath 2004;
2019; Dwivedi et al. 2019). Mohanty et al. 2007; Bhatt et al. 2019).
We have used six parameters that are crucial for
the assessment of seismic hazard in a region; PGA,
ampliBcation, tsunami, geology and geomorphol- 5. Result and discussion
ogy, liquefaction and soil type. A pair-wise com-
parison is prepared between two elements that The macro level seismic hazard assessment is cru-
contribute to seismic hazard on a scale of 1–6. The cial for the study area as the region has been
value 1 indicates that both the elements are equally assigned seismic zone V (BIS 2002) and has expe-
important and Bve means that one element is more rienced large earthquakes in the past (Mw 7.6 in
important than the other (Mohanty et al. 2007; 2001 and Mw 7.8 in 1819) besides several moderate
Saaty 2008; Moustafa et al. 2016). If an element is earthquakes. The Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) has a
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 13 of 20 3

Table 3. Weightage assigned for the integration of different themes based on AHP.

Geology and
Themes PGA AF Tsunami geomorphology Liquefaction Soil type Weightage
PGA 1 6/5 6/4 6/3 6/2 6/1 0.285714
AF 5/6 1 5/4 5/3 5/2 5/1 0.238095
Tsunami 4/6 4/5 1 4/3 4/2 4/1 0.190476
Geomorphology 3/6 3/5 3/4 1 3/2 3/1 0.142857
and geology
Liquefaction 2/6 2/5 2/4 2/3 1 2/1 0.095238
Soil type 1/6 1/5 1/4 1/3 1/2 1 0.047619

Table 4. Normalized ranking of features.

Normalized
Themes Values Weightage Ranks Rank
PGA (Bedrock) \0.4 Gal 0.286 3 0
0.4–0.79 Gal 2 0.5
0.8–1.15 Gal 1 1
AF B1.69 0.238 2 0
C1.7 1 1
Tsunami High 0.190 3 0
Moderate 2 0.5
Low 1 1
Geology and Dissected sedimentary and volcanic hills 0.143 5 0
geomorphology (Jurassic to Eocene)
Pediplains (Tertiary) 4 0.25
Salt Cat and salt encrustation 3 0.5
(Quaternary)
Alluvial plains (Quaternary) 2 0.75
Mud Cat (Quaternary) 1 1
Liquefaction Relatively low 0.095 4 0
Low 3 0.333
Moderate 2 0.666
High 1 1
Soil type Silty soil 0.0476 5 0
Sandy and loamy soil 4 0.25
Clayey soil 3 0.5
Rann 2 0.75
Mud 1 1

wide variety of rocks and geological features. It has PGA, tsunami that are critical for seismic hazard
highlands, lowlands, marshes, mud Cats, hills, and integrated them to prepare a Brst level seismic
Rann and many active faults. Though the region hazard map of the region. We have validated our
has been assigned zone V as per the Indian Code, results with the published data that is available for
the seismic hazard is not equal everywhere. Some few pockets in the region.
regions are prone to large ground motions and Kachchh, a seismically active intraplate region,
many areas are potential sites for liquefaction while is a natural laboratory for geological, seismological
some are prone to tsunamis. In view of this, some and geomorphological studies. The geological map
pockets have high hazards and some have low of the study area (Bgure 1) reveals that Quaternary
hazards. Here, we have gathered all the available sediments cover almost 60% of the study region
information like geology, geomorphology, soil, except in the southwest and eastern part. The
groundwater level, shear-wave velocity (Vs30), Quaternary alluvium is prone to higher seismic
3 Page 14 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

hazard because it can amplify destructive seismic multi-channel analysis of surface waves (MASW)
waves. In view of this, sites on Quaternary allu- method (ISR 2014–15) (Sairam et al. 2019) in few
vium may expect more damages. In comparison to areas of Kachchh. The MASW results indicated
soft soil sites, sites on the rocks belonging to that Vs30 is in the range 180–360 m/s and 360–760
Mesozoic period and represented by uplifted hills m/s in Quaternary and Tertiary to Mesozoic sed-
and pediplains in the southern and eastern parts of iments, respectively. In comparison, in our study,
the study area, and in the northern part Pachc- we found that Vs30 estimated by the slope as proxy
ham, Khadir and Bela islands are less prone to ranged from 200 to 350 m/s for the Quaternary to
ampliBcation. The rankings for geology and geo- Holocene and 300–720 m/s for Tertiary and
morphology are assigned as per site conditions. Mesozoic sediments, respectively. The results are
Accordingly, the highest rank is assigned to (1) in good agreement, which infers that slope-based
mud Cats followed by (2) alluvial plains, (3) salt Vs30 works well on regional scale in India (Nath
Cat, (4) pediplains, and (5) dissected sedimentary et al. 2013).
and volcanic hills as shown in table 4. Based on the average shear-wave velocities
The averaged shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30) and PGA values at bedrock (Chopra et al.
termed as Vs30 estimated by methodology pro- 2012), we estimated the ampliBcation factor (AF)
posed by Allen and Wald (2009) for the study area using empirical relationships of Choi and Stewart
(Bgure 5) ranges between 150 and 900 m/s. The (2005). The AF ranges between 0.9 and 2.2 in the
lowest Vs30 values (150–250 m/s) are encountered studied region. The ampliBcation is between 0.9
in the northern and southeastern parts of the and 1.7 in the regions covered by Mesozoic and
Kachchh, where Rann sediments and mud Cats are Tertiary rocks and between 1.7 and 2.2 in alluvial
exposed, whereas Vs30 values higher than 500 m/s plains areas, Rann and mud Cats (Bgure 7).
are observed in the islands located in the northern Accordingly, we assigned the rankings for ampliB-
parts (Pachcham, Khadir, Bela and Chorar) and cation, with the highest rank for higher ampliBca-
central part, where dissected hills are present tion ([1.7 as 1, \1.7 as 2) as shown in table 4. The
(Bgure 4). The sites are classiBed based on National results are veriBed with the previous study shown
Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) in table 5. Mohan et al. (2017) have estimated
classiBcation scheme based on Vs30 values. It can strong-motion parameters at three boreholes in
be seen from Bgure 5 that the largest area is Kachchh region. Out of these three, two boreholes
covered by D-type soils (Vs30 180–360 m/s). The are in Quaternary sediments and one in coastal
Vs30 measurements estimated by slope as a proxy sediments. The ampliBcation w.r.t. engineering
and subsequent ampliBcation estimated thereby bedrock (Vs 760 m/s) in Quaternary boreholes
were compared with actual geophysical investiga- vary between 1.1 and 1.2, whereas ampliBcation of
tions carried out in the region. The comparison 2.2 is noticed in borehole in coastal sediments
is shown in table 5. The Vs30 was estimated by (Mohan et al. 2017). In our study, we found that

Table 5. Comparison of shear wave velocities estimated in the present study with multi-channel analysis of surface waves
(MASW) carried out by ISR 2014–15.

Vs30 Vs30 Avg. Vs30

measurement measurement measurement
Site by slope by MASW (Sairam et al. AmpliBcation factor AmpliBcation as per
Geological formation class proxy (m/s) (m/s) 2019) (AF) as per this study published literature
Deccan Trap and B 780–1000 800–1000 886 \1.7 –
granite
Sediments of C 300–720 360–760 600 1.4–1.6 1.7–2.1**
Mesozoic and
Tertiary
Quaternary D 200–350 180–360 311 1.1–1.85 1.1–1.2*
sediments
Holocene Rann/ E 150–180 \180 160 1.8–2.1 2.2*
coastal sediments
*Mohan et al. (2017), **ISR Annual Report 2018–19.
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 15 of 20 3

ampliBcation in Quaternary sediments varies southwestern part of the KRB has high hazard
between 1.1 and 1.85, whereas in coastal sediments probability as it has Cat topography facing the sea.
it varies between 1.8 and 2.1 (Bgure 7) as depicted The Kachchh region comprises of soils of alluvial
in table 5. This shows that the estimated values are plains, pediment, hilly terrain, piedmont plain, and
in good agreement with ground response analysis. salt Cats (Bgure 3). The northern part of the study
Recently, seismic microzonation of Bhuj city in area mostly consists of Rann sediments and salt
Kachchh was carried out (ISR 2018–19). The city encrustation. The coastal areas comprised of cities
is covered by Mesozoic rocks. It was found that the and ports like Mundra, Mandvi and Gandhidham
ampliBcation at sites covered by Mesozoic rocks are covered by alluvial plain, salt Cat and mud Cat
was in the range 1.7–2.1. In the present study, it with calcareous sandy and loamy soils. The Rann
was found that ampliBcation in Mesozoic rocks is in sediments, alluvial plains and mud Cats consist of
the range 1.4–1.6 (table 5). The result shows that cohesion-less sediments (Youd and Perkins 1978).
the ampliBcation factor (AF) for the coastal areas Hence, these sites have high potential for lique-
of the KRB is high up to 2.2 due to the presence of faction. By combining the geological conditions,
loose and unconsolidated sediments, whereas in type of deposit, geomorphology, age, and ground-
Mesozoic and Tertiary, it varies between 1.4 and water level, we prepared a liquefaction potential
1.6. map using methodology proposed by Youd and
The KRB coastline is long and nearer to the Perkins (1978) (Bgure 9). This map shows that the
seismically active Makran subduction zone and areas occupied by hills and rocks have less sus-
Owen’s fracture zone. The region has experienced ceptibility, whereas moderate vulnerability is
many tsunamis in the historical past and the latest expected in pediplain areas and higher suscepti-
one is in 1945 due to an Mw 8.1 earthquake in the bility in mud Cat and coastal areas of the Kachchh.
Makran subduction zone. In this study, we con- The entire database generated like PGA at
sidered tsunami as a hazard, especially for coastal bedrock, ampliBcation factor, tsunami, geology–
regions. The hazard is categorized as low, moderate geomorphology, liquefaction and soil are assigned
and high. Figure 10 shows that the NW part of the weights according to table 3. We have assigned
basin comes under high hazard category as it is weights to the attributes based on the contribution
nearer to the subduction zone with very Cat of that particular element to hazard. The weigh-
topography (1–5 m) and steep bathymetry (–5 m). tage is calculated on the scale of 6:1. The highest
The Jakhau port may aAect less compared to NW weightage is assigned to PGA at bedrock
part due to the presence of chaparral. The southern (0.285714) followed by an ampliBcation factor
part of the KRB is under moderate to low tsunami (0.238095), tsunami (0.190476), geology and geo-
hazard due to the presence of dunes of 5–10 m. The morphology (0.142857), liquefaction susceptibility

Figure 10. Tsunami hazard potential map of Kachchh district (green line shows the contour at the elevation of 10 m).
3 Page 16 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

(0.095238) and soil (0.047619). After assigning region is prone to large earthquakes. It gives the
weights based on the values of different themes, an impression that the entire Kachchh has equal
assemblage has been made and based on their hazard but the multi-criteria approach reveals that
values ranks have been assigned. After normaliza- as compared to southwestern and southeastern
tion, normalized ranks of each value are provided parts, the central and northern parts have highest
(table 4). In the Bnal stage, hazard index is calcu- hazard (Bgure 11). The region north of KMF and
lated based on normalized ranks and weightage. Wagad uplift has the highest hazard. This study
The hazard index is categorized into four: low has provided a Brst-level hazard map of Kachchh
(0.01–0.25), moderately high (0.25–0.45), high region using multicriteria analysis. Most of the
(0.45–0.65) and very high (0.65–0.90) as shown in cities of Kachchh are located in highlands mainly
Bgure 11. Based on the integrated map (Bgure 11), Kachchh mainland and Wagad. The present study
we observe that the central and northern parts of shows that Bhachau, Rapar, Gandhidham and
the Kachchh district have the highest hazard due Mundra have moderately to high hazard, whereas
to proximity to major faults and presence of Qua- cities of Bhuj and Mandvi have moderate hazard.
ternary alluvium and Rann deposits, which possess The seismic microzonation of Anjar–Gandhidham
high chances of liquefaction potential. Many sites is completed and Bhuj is in process. The study
in the region have reported liquefaction during the found that, the cities of Bhachau, Mundra and
2001 Bhuj earthquake (Bgure 9). The site ampliB- Rapar need microzonation. The Kandla and Mun-
cation may also be high in this region since Vs30 is dra are major ports, where most of the oil and coal
low. The bedrock PGA is also high in the central are imported, respectively, and have LNG and
and northern parts of the district since most of the LPG terminals too. These two ports have a high
major active faults are located in the region. The risk of tsunamis from Makran subduction zone.
southwestern part has volcanic and sedimentary The preliminary hazard map clearly matched with
rocks that have high Vs30, so very low chances of previous damages. In our seismic hazard assess-
liquefaction hazard. The PGA in this part at bed- ment map, the southern part where Bhachau city is
rock ranges between 0.01 and 0.3 g which seems falling in high to very high hazard-prone zone has
low compared to the northern region. The entire witnessed widespread destruction and most of the
Kachchh falls in zone V as per the (BIS 2002) buildings were damaged during 2001 Bhuj earth-
seismic zoning map of India which shows that the quake. The northern region of the Kachchh, where

Figure 11. Preliminary seismic hazard map of Kachchh district, Gujarat state, western India.
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3 Page 17 of 20 3

Table 6. Distribution of population and severity of damage in Kachchh district.

Population Number of Number of damaged Population Number of

Taluka name (2001) buildings (2001) buildings (2001) (2011) buildings (2011) Severity
Rapar 198000 6113 5735 217315 9254 High
Bhachau 147891 7789 6180 186035 10506 Very high
Anjar 160292 17173 13193 235537 23961 High
Bhuj 345013 49526 44310 443269 45953 Moderately
high
Mandvi 170573 13723 9375 203373 14512 High
Mundra 83010 4188 3223 153219 6399 High
Gandhidham 201569 36689 24927 327166 68218 High

Allah Bund fault is located, falls in very high coastline of about 1600 km in India. After Hima-
hazard-prone zone. During 1819, Allah Bund laya, this is the only region in the Indian subcon-
earthquake (Mw 7.8), the morphology of the region tinent that can generate M8 earthquakes. After the
has changed with the formation of 80 km long bund devastating 2001 Bhuj earthquake, many indus-
called Allah Bund and it dammed the Puran River. tries have mushroomed in this region resulting in
The area of Kandla port comes under high hazard uncontrolled urban growth in some pockets.
in our study. The Kandla region witnessed large- According to seismic zoning map of India, entire
scale liquefaction and related ground failures dur- Kachchh is in zone V with highest seismic hazard.
ing 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The same is added in In this study, a multi-criteria approach was adop-
the manuscript. ted to prepare an integrate seismic hazard map
The total population of Kachchh is around based on attributes like PGA, AF, tsunami hazard,
2 million (Census 2011). The highly populated liquefaction, and geology. The PGA and geol-
areas of the Kachchh are Bhuj (0.4 million), ogy/tectonics information were available in the
Gandhidham (0.3 million), Anjar (0.2 million), literature. A shear wave velocity map of the region
Rapar (0.2 million), Mandvi (0.2 million), Bhachau was generated using slope as a proxy and veriBed
(0.2 million) and Mundra (0.15 million), as per the with the actual MASW results and the same was
Census-2011. As per our study, the cities of Rapar, used along with the level of ground motion to
Bhachau, Anjar, Mundra and Gandhidham have generate an ampliBcation map of the region. The
moderate to high hazard. Therefore, around 1 velocities and ampliBcation thus obtained were
million population is exposed to moderate to high validated with actual observations in some pockets
hazard. The buildings in the region have increased of the region. A liquefaction potential map of the
almost two to Bve times from 2001 to 2011 as region is made using information about soil, geol-
shown in table 6. So, if a big earthquake strikes the ogy, seismicity and depth of groundwater. The
Kachchh region in near future, around 0.18 million contribution of liquefaction is significant in the
houses are exposed to moderate to high hazard. In overall hazard because most of the area of the
view of this, proper construction practices may be Kachchh region is occupied by Rann sediments,
followed for new buildings and assessment of old which have high liquefaction potential. Different
buildings may be taken up on urgent basis. The attributes, crucial for seismic hazard were weighted
ports of Kandla and Mundra may be strengthened and ranked based on their contribution to hazard.
from impounding tsunami waves. After integrating the ground accelerations, ampli-
Bcation, tsunami, geology and geomorphology,
liquefaction and soil into a matrix prepared using
6. Conclusion analytical hierarchy process, a Brst-order seismic
hazard map of the Kachchh region has been pre-
The KRB is a seismically active rift, located in the pared. It has been found that northern and the
westernmost part of India. It has many large active central parts have the highest hazard. It is found
faults that have generated large earthquakes in the that Rann sediments cover most of the northern
past and has potential to generate earthquakes up region with shallow ground-water level due to
to magnitude 8 in future too. It has the longest which the probability of ampliBcation and
3 Page 18 of 20 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2022)131:3

liquefaction is high thereby increasing the hazard for Bangalore city, India; J. Asian Earth Sci. 38(5)
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neers for urban planning and mitigation. The cities Bilham R 1998 Slip parameters for the Rann of Kachchh,
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We are thankful to Director General, Institute of function of 30 m shear wave velocity; Earthq. Spectra. 21
Seismological Research, Gandhinagar for his sup- 1–30.
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on GIS platform and prepared the manuscript. motion modelling in the Gujarat region of Western India
Nisarg Bhatt helped in evolving multi-criteria using empirical Green’s function approach; Tectonophys.
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