Nigerian Journal of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology (NJAAT)

Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023

ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY RESULTING FROM PROJECTED

CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE LIVELIHOOD OF ORASHI FARMERS IN NIGER
DELTA REGION OF NIGERIA

Cookey, A. T. and Unaeze, H. C.

Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management
University of Port Harcourt
Corresponding Author’s email: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
The study was conducted to assess the vulnerability resulting from projected climate change
and the rate of intervention by various institutions on the livelihood of Orashi framers in Niger
Delta region of Nigeria. Purposive sampling technique was used to select 100 respondents.
Data were collected using structured questionnaire and analysed using both descriptive and
inferential statistics. The findings revealed that on the socio-economic characteristics of
displaced persons and institutions, 52% of the climate refugees were female. 90% of the farms
were all in rural areas. 38% were within the age of 40-49 years, Approximately 50% had spent
6 years in school and the majority 57% had a household size of 4-7 persons, 38% had 1-3
persons, 3% had within 8-11 persons while 2% had above 11 persons. Going further the result
on the Institution’s socioeconomic characteristics reveals that the majority of the Institutions
are public and are locally based with a staff strength of above 30 persons On socio-economic
characteristics as they affect their response to agricultural productivity using the probit model
shows that because they are displaced and currently in a displaced camp their response towards
their livelihood is low.. The vulnerability category vulnerability category of 0.148-0.167 placed
Ahoada West LGA as the most vulnerable landscape. Similarly, the vulnerability range of
0.144-0.148 placed Abua and Ahoada East LGAs as moderately vulnerable landscape. In
contrast, the vulnerability range of 0.001-0.144 placed Ogba Egbema Ndoni LGA as less
vulnerable landscape. The study concluded that Institutions are the media through which
external intervention reinforce and that local institutions play a key role in shaping the extent
to which communities became vulnerable and respond to environmental risks. Therefore the
study recommended that to help maintain cultural identity, community, and dignity, it would
seem more just to attempt to relocate refugees who chose that option such that they are
relocated to places where they will be together with member of their family, community, and
broader and Government should design a multi-sectorial approach so as to build the capacity
of Institutions in order to address the issue of climate refugees.

Keywords: Vulnerability, Livelihood, Climate change

INTRODUCTION
There is growing scientific certainty of exacerbating vulnerability and risks resulting
from projected climate change, and now there is no doubt that the rise in sea levels or the
salinization of coastal areas as climatic processes, or hydro-meteorological natural catastrophes
as climatic events, have significant implications on human lives and livelihoods around the
world, as well as in Developing countries (Kate, 2008). Nevertheless, there is considerable
debate about the influence of environmental change on migration. The sceptics group opines
that sudden or slow-onset changes in environmental conditions can be indirect factors in
decisions to move, but social processes that create poverty and marginality are more important
factors than environmental changes per se. (Barnet and Chamberlain 2010). Within this

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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

complex and dynamic situation, environmental factors are increasingly recognized as an

important component of people’s migration decisions, notwithstanding the fact that there are
also non-climatic migration factors to consider, as migration is not necessarily going to occur
for reasons of climatic events alone ( Walsham, 2009).
In Rivers state the consequences of this climate inconsistency has led to the creation of
Climate Refugees which have affected agricultural productivity as well as to the state’s
socioeconomic activities. Particularly, climate change resulting from possible increasing
temperature, as the years go by may have resulted in the current heavy precipitation events
being observed in the state recently (Ayotamuno, 2020). Although Institutions which comprises
of Governmental and Non-governmental organization have taken various initiatives in time
past to support climate disaster affected people however it has been clearly noted that these
supports are not sufficient to cover the entire climate refugees. Moreover is their role fully
effective in regaining the affected people’s normal course of activities and sustainability in the
livelihood. This study is therefore carried out to describe the socio-economic characteristics of
displaced persons as they affect their response to livelihood changes and identify the most
vulnerable landscape in the study area.

METHODOLOGY
Study Area
Orashi in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, and conservatively covers an approximate
landmass of 70,000km2 which represents one of the most extensive wetlands globally. It is an
ecological zone located between latitude 4º and 6º North of the equator and longitude 5º and 7º
East of Greenwich. It is also located on a coastal plain with fluvial deposits traversed by a
number of rivers and tributaries which makes the area vulnerable to climatic factors (Mmom
and Aifesehi, 2013). Orashi in the Niger Delta region consists of four ecological zones; lowland
rainforest, freshwater swamp forests, mangroves and coastal barrier islands. It has dry and wet
seasons, with poorly drained low-lying terrain and soil that encourages erosion and flooding
occasioned by intense precipitation and river discharge in the wet season (Brown and Brisibe
2020).
Population of Study
The Study population as seen in Table 1 was 155,000 persons (NEMA, 2021) which
consisted of Individuals displaced by climate change in the selected four Local government
areas of Orashi Region. These were local government areas affected by climatic variables.
Sampling Technique and sample size
Purposive sampling method was adopted to select 100 climate refugees. The
Justification behind its use was that it helped to focus in-depth and on particular characteristics
of a population that are of interest. For the Institutions, Purposive sampling procedure was also
adopted in selecting thirty (30) Institutions. The Justification behind the use of this procedure
is that the process helped in selecting participants possessing characteristics associated with
the research study. Furthermore the rationale behind the selection of the L.G.A’s was as a result
of the in-depth interview carried out by the researcher before the commencement of the research
which indicated that the L.G.A’s have been impacted by Climate change.

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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

Table 1: Population Distribution in Orashi Region

S/N Local Government Area Number of Persons Sample size
affected
1 Ahoada West 54,000 25
2 Abua 46,000 25
3 Ahoada East 32,000 25
4 Ogba Egbema Ndoni 23,000 25
Total 155,000 100
Source: National Emergency Management Agency 2021

Method of Data Collection

The instrument adopted for data collection for this study was the structured
questionnaire and interviews. The structured questionnaire was designed to collect information
on ascertaining the rate of intervention between public and non-governmental Organizations
on climate refugees in the study area and identifying the constraints encountered by institutions
and the respondents in the study area.
Method of Data Analysis
Descriptive Statistics such as frequency, mean and percentage was used whereas the
probit model and GIS was adopted.
Model Specification
Probit Model
Probit regression, also called a probit model will be used to model dichotomous or
binary outcome variables
Probit (Y*) = Xiß + ų 1
Where;
ų = (0, 1)
Y* = 0 or 1 (dummy variable index representing respondent’s opinion on analysis of the intervention
rate of Institutional on climate refugees and livelihood in Rivers State positive = 1, negative - 0)
Y = Dependent Variables (Positive = 1, negative - 0)
X1 =Age (Number)
X2 = Farming Experience (Years)
X3 = Household size (Number)
X4 = Income (Naira)
X5 = Schooling (Years)
ei = error term
Geographical information system (GIS)
Choropleth map was generated with the aid of symbology Tab in layer properties using
ArcGIS 10.8. The map was deployed for easy visualization of the level of vulnerability among
the four sampled LGAs. However, the most vulnerable landscape in the study area was
computed based on the interplay between the economic indicators, environmental indicators,
social indicators and the underlying cause of vulnerability as well as number of persons affected
as extracted from the questionnaire. Iyengar and Sudarshan (1982) model was used to calculate
the most vulnerable landscape for the four sampled LGAs in Rivers State. The model developed
a method to work out a composite index from multivariate data. This methodology is
statistically well suited for the development of index of vulnerability to climate change. The
formula is presented in equation 1 as follows:
(y_i ) ̅=∑_(j=1)^K▒w_(j ) x_ij (2)
Where K = vulnerability indicators
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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

M = (Ahoada West, Abua, Ahaoda East and Ogba Egbema Ndoni LGAs)
W = weights of individual vulnerability indicators
Xij; i = 1,2……M., j = 1,2…..K are the proportional scores.

In order to determine the most vulnerable landscape, the LGAs were weighted in
respect to the vulnerability indicators. A number of weighting frameworks are available in
literature including equal weighting, benefit of the doubt approach, unobserved component
models, budget allocation, public opinion, analytic hierarchy process and conjoint analysis
among others (Gan et al., 2017). Each of these weighting frameworks has inherent strengths
and weaknesses. This study however adopted equal weighting in the weighting of all
vulnerability indicators. The rationale is based on the fact that all the indicators are in the same
way vital in the assessment, its simplicity, avoidance of undue/greater influence of certain
indicators over others as well as wide application in many areas including stock market and
sustainability assessments (Gan et al., 2017). The weights wj were determined by dividing an
integer ‘1’ by all the indicators. The fractal intervals were then used to characterize the various
stages of vulnerability;
Less vulnerable if 0 < ȳ < z1
Moderately vulnerable if z1 < ȳ < z2
Highly vulnerable if z3 < ȳ z3

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Socioeconomic characteristics of the climate Refugees displaced persons and institutions
Socio-economic Characteristics of Displaced Persons
The result in Table 2 indicated that 52% were Females who had been displaced. The
result interpretation connotes that displacement has more effect on women than it has on men.
When displacement occurs, far more damage results than simply the loss and destruction of
goods and property, people’s lives and the social fabric are left to tatters. As terrible as the
destruction, may be, women usually suffer the effect more acutely than men do. Complex
emergencies are often times upset as these findings correlate with the outcome of the results
by Ogbanga (2015) who noted that women and children often make up the majority of the IDP
Population. The result also indicates that 38% of the Respondents are within the age range of
40-49 years. The result corroborates with the findings in Ogbanga (2015) which asserted that
the majority of the individual in rural areas were within the age bracket of 40-49 years.
Furthermore, these findings are consistent with the report by BBC (2019) on The Ageing crisis
threatening farming when they asserted that the average age of working-aged individuals
primarily engaged in farming ranges from about 32-39 years. The implication of these findings
was that respondents were young and productive.
Table 2 further showed that 63% of the respondents earned an average monthly income
of N20, 000-N25, 000 monthly. This has shown that most households (male and female-
headed) have limited resources and do not have ready access to financial services including
saving facilities of banks and other formal financial institutions due to the absence of formal
financial institutions in rural areas and the low literacy level of farmers. Mukaila, Falola, and
Egwue 2021 noted that a better understanding of drivers of rural household income is a
powerful guide for proper intervention toward poverty alleviation and better well-being.
Unlocking the Inherent skills of rural farmers lies in Education. Quality education
makes farmers adopt critical production decisions, access relevant information, and adopt new
technologies. Analysis of years spent in school as seen in Table 2 showed that 50% had spent
6 years (Primary education) while the least 5% had spent 12 years (Primary and secondary

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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

education). On average one can conclude that the majority of the farmers do not have quality
education. This has shown that farmers are not literate enough thus any disaster would have a
great impact on them.
Typically large household size has a significant relationship with a much greater risk of
poverty. Table 2 shows that about 57% had a household size of 4-7 persons, 38% had 1-3
persons, 3% had within 8-11 persons and 2% had above 11 persons. Thus the implication of
the result is that the level of agricultural productivity is low among the population sampled.
Data Analysis as seen in Table 2 indicates that 38% had 21-30 years of farming
Experience, the implication of these findings is that they must have had long years in Farming
and Interaction with government and Non-governmental organizations. However, this result is
contrary to the findings of Enete & Amusa, (2010) who stated that farmers finds it difficult to
get support from both government and Non-government organization

Table 2 Distribution of the Socio-economic Characteristics of the Climate Refugees (n=90)

Socio-economic Characteristics Frequency Percentage %
Sex
Male 43 48
Female 47 52
LGA
Urban area - -
Rural Area 90 100
Age (Years)
Less than 18yrs
20-29 years 8 9
30-39years 27 30
40-49years 34 38
50-59years 14 16
Above 60years 7 7
Average monthly Income(Naira)
5,000-10,000 - -
10,000-15,000 3 3
15,000-20,000 9 10
20,000-25,000 57 63
Above 25,000 21 23
Years Spent in School
0 15 17
6 45 50
12 5 5
16 25 28
Household Size (Number of Persons)
1-3 34 38
4-7 51 57
8-11 3 3
Above 11 2 2
Years of framing Experience
1-10 27 30
11-20 25 28
21-30 34 38
31-40 4 4
Total 90 100
Source: Field Survey, (2023)
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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

Socio-economic Characteristics of Institutions

In their study on assessing the response capacity of Government Institutions to the
Plight of Internally displaced persons, Raji, et al 2021 opined that the first primary responder
to the plights of Internally Displace Persons is always the Government Institutions as they are
involved in coordination and curtailment of their plight. This fact correlates with the research
findings as seen in Table 3 which noted that 47% of the sampled institutions are the government
institutions whose presence has been mostly felt by the climate refugees. Next to this are the
Private Institutions as noted by 43% of the sampled institutions who asserted that they are
active in the protection and assistance of the internally displaced persons. As seen in Table 3
the result depicts that 87% of the institutions were local institutions that are always involved in
the coordination and curtailment of climate refugee’s plight. The implication of the result is
that these institutions will be abreast with the challenges of climate refugees based on the fact
that they are locally owned.
As seen in Table 3, 93% of the sampled institutions involved in intervention have a staff
strength of above 30 persons the implication of this correlates with the fact that the recipe for
outstanding performance and goal achievement lies in staff strength thus this fact correlates
with the research findings. Table 3 further reveals that 93% of the sampled institutions have
existed for over 16 years. The implication of these findings will reveal that standard best
practices will put be put in place while carrying out their operation. The Research Findings as
seen in Table 3 reveals that 93% of the sampled institution have a budget of above 30 million
naira. The implication of these indicates that majority of the institution impact will be felt by
these climate refugees.

Table 3: Distribution of the Institutions Based on their Categories and Statuses. (n=30)
Category of Institutions Frequency Percentage %
Private 13 43
Public 14 47
NGO 3 10
FBO - -
Institutional Type
Local 26 87
International 4 13
Institutional Staff Strength
10 and below - -
11-20 - -
21-30 2 7
Above 30 28 93
Years of existence
1-5years - -
6-10years - -
11-15years 2 7
16 and above 28 93
Institutional annual Budget
10million and below 2 7
11-20million - -
21-30million - -
Above 30million 28 93
Source: Field Survey, (2023)
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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

Table 4: The Probit Model

Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.

C 45.96500 48.22710 0.953095 0.3405

AGE -0.139268 0.087549 -1.590744 0.1117
FMEXP -0.379519 0.574772 -0.660295 0.5091
HHS -0.647778 0.727327 -0.890629 0.3731
INCME -0.000123 0.000164 -0.751516 0.4523
SCHOOLING 1.158263 1.027769 1.126968 0.2598
McFadden R-
squared 0.718298 Mean dependent var 0.922222
S.D. dependent var 0.269322 S.E. of regression 0.168764
Akaike info criterion 0.287316 Sum squared resid 2.392428
Schwarz criterion 0.453970 Log likelihood -6.929226
Hannan-Quinn
criter. 0.354521 Deviance 13.85845
Restr. deviance 49.19546 Restr. log likelihood -24.59773
LR statistic 35.33701 Avg. log likelihood -0.076991
Prob(LR statistic) 0.000001
Obs with Dep=0 7 Total obs 90
Obs with Dep=1 83

As seen in Table 4 The Probit model classified observations based on their predicted
probabilities. A Positive coefficient means that an increase in the predictor leads to an increase
in the predicted probability. A negative coefficient means that an increase in the predictor leads
to a decrease in the predicted probability thus the result shows that because they are displaced
and currently in a displaced camp their response towards agricultural productivity is low. This
can be supported by the negative value of some of their socio economic indicators like age (-
0.139268), Farming experience (-0.329519), household size (-0.64778), Income (-0.000123)
which are all negative, only years spent in schooling (1.158263) is statistically significant and
positive.
The negative response of respondents age (-0.139268), could be that irrespective of
their age and based on the fact that they are dislodged they do not have a stable mindset to
respond if there is positive agricultural productivity or not. Also looking at farming experience
(-0.379519) with a negative value could also be that as they are not in their stable state,
irrespective of the number of years they must have spent in their family it didn’t affect their
response positively thereby giving a negative response on Livelihood. Household size
supposed to be a contributory factor to agricultural productivity is also negative in responding
to livelihood in the study area. This is because on their unstable frame of mind caused by their
dislodgement. Also, income which is another vital contributory factor to farm productivity is
negative showing that respondent’s relocation affects their income thereby giving negative
response to livelihood. It was only the number of years spent in formal schooling that is
positive. This can be that since respondents can read and write they should be aware if there is
agricultural productivity or not. A critical look at the Alkaike criterion (0.287316) shows a
positive value which means that the model is a good fit.

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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

Table 5: Vulnerable landscape computation in Ahoada West LGA (n = 31)

Indicators of landscape vulnerability Frequency Proportion Weights
(Yes) (x) (w) (x . w)
Loss of source of livelihood 6 0.193 0.125 0.024
Slow down development plan 4 0.129 0.125 0.016
Loss of soil nutrient 3 0.097 0.125 0.012
Air pollution 2 0.065 0.125 0.008
Residing in a flood prone are 5 0.161 0.125 0.020
Poverty 7 0.226 0.125 0.028
Lack of alternative livelihood (s) 4 0.129 0.125 0.016
Percentage of persons affected 34.8 0.348 0.125 0.043
Σ(x . w) =0.167
Source: Field Survey, (2023)

Table 6: Vulnerable landscape computation in Abua LGA (n = 27)

Frequency Proportion Weights
Indicators of landscape vulnerability
(Yes) (x) (w) (x . w)
Loss of source of livelihood 5 0.185 0.125 0.023
Slow down development plan 3 0.111 0.125 0.014
Loss of soil nutrient 2 0.074 0.125 0.009
Air pollution 2 0.074 0.125 0.009
Residing in a flood prone are 5 0.185 0.125 0.023
Poverty 6 0.222 0.125 0.028
Lack of alternative livelihood (s) 4 0.148 0.125 0.005
Percentage of persons affected 29.7 0.297 0.125 0.037
Σ(x . w) = .148
Source: Field Survey, (2023)

Table 7: Vulnerable landscape computation in Ahoada East LGA (n = 19)

Frequency Proportion Weights
Indicators of landscape vulnerability
(Yes) (x) (w) (x . w)
Loss of source of livelihood 4 0.211 0.125 0.026
Slow down development plan 2 0.105 0.125 0.013
Loss of soil nutrient 1 0.053 0.125 0.006
Air pollution 1 0.053 0.125 0.006
Residing in a flood prone are 3 0.158 0.125 0.019
Poverty 5 0.263 0.125 0.033
Lack of alternative livelihood (s) 3 0.158 0.125 0.019
Percentage of persons affected 20.7 0.207 0.125 0.026
Σ(x . w) = 0.148
Source: Field Survey, (2023)

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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

Table 8: Vulnerable landscape computation in Ogba Egbema Ndoni LGA (n = 13)

Frequency Proportion Weights
Indicators of landscape vulnerability
(Yes) (x) (w) (x . w)
Loss of source of livelihood 3 0.231 0.125 0.029
Slow down development plan 1 0.077 0.125 0.010
Loss of soil nutrient 1 0.077 0.125 0.010
Air pollution 1 0.077 0.125 0.010
Residing in a flood prone are 2 0.154 0.125 0.019
Poverty 3 0.231 0.125 0.029
Lack of alternative livelihood (s) 2 0.154 0.125 0.019
Percentage of persons affected 14.8 0.148 0.125 0.018
Σ(x . w) = 0.144
Source: Field Survey, (2023)

Fig 2: Level of Vulnerability of Landscape in the Sampled Local Government Area

Source: Researcher Fieldwork, 2023

The areas that are most vulnerable to climate change-induced flooding had consequences in
each household where respondents lived. The interplay between the economic indicators,
environmental indicators, social indicators and the underlying cause of vulnerability as well as
number of persons affected produced the most vulnerable landscape as presented in Figure 2.
As it could be seen, the vulnerability category of 0.148-0.167 placed Ahoada West LGA as the
most vulnerable landscape. Similarly, the vulnerability range of 0.144-0.148 placed Abua and
Ahoada East LGAs as moderately vulnerable landscape. In contrast, the vulnerability range of
0.001-0.144 placed Ogba Egbema Ndoni LGA as less vulnerable landscape.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The study concluded that Institutions are the media through which external intervention
reinforce and that local institutions play a key role in shaping the extent to which communities
became vulnerable and respond to environmental risks

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Volume 3, Number 2, December, 2023
ISSN (Print): 2811-1885; ISSN (Online): 2811-1893

I. Therefore the study recommended that to help maintain cultural identity, community,
and dignity
II. it would seem more just to attempt to relocate refugees who chose that option such that
they are relocated in places where they will be together with member of their family,
and
III. Government should design a multi-sectorial approach so as to build the capacity of
Institutions in order to address the issue of climate refugees.

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