Lahore University of Management Sciences

DISC 203 – PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Fall 2024-25
Instructor Ijaz Haider Naqvi
Room No. SBASSE 9-248 A
Office Hours TBA
Email [email protected]
Telephone TBA
Secretary Abdul Basit <[email protected]>
TA Office Hours TBA
Course URL (if any) https://lms.lums.edu.pk/portal

COURSE TEACHING METHODOLOGY

Teaching methodology Synchronous learning
Lecture details 100 % live

COURSE BASICS
Credit Hours 3
Lecture(s) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week 2 Duration 75 minutes
Recitation/Lab (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week Duration
Tutorial (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week Duration

COURSE DISTRIBUTION
Core Yes
Elective
Open for Student Category Sophomore
Close for Student Category

COURSE DESCRIPTION
This course is designed to provide students majoring in management and finance with an elementary introduction to probability and statistics
with applications. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are covered. We first review techniques for organizing and presenting the raw data
and elementary probability theory. Next, we discuss various techniques to make inferences. Along with probability theory, sampling distribution
and central limit theorem shall be discussed. The idea of central limit theorem will naturally lead towards the confidence intervals and hypothesis
tests for mean and proportion. We follow this discussion with single and multiple regression analysis, model building, design of experiments and
categorical data analysis. The course also aims to give a hands-on experience with using a statistical package, R for carrying out data analysis. The
main objective of the course is to provide students with the foundations of statistical inference mostly used in business and economics.

COURSE PREREQUISITE(S)

• Calculus I (Math 101)

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COURSE LEARNING OBJECTIVES (CLO)
1. To enable students to solve problems using basic concepts of probability
2. To introduce students to the theory of inferential statistics
3. To enable students to analyze data by identifying appropriate statistical techniques, computing statistics and interpreting results
4. To enable students to use R for statistical analysis of data
5. To enable students to present and defend their empirical analysis effectively

LEARNING OUTCOMES (LO)

By the end of the course, students should be able to:
1. summarize the data in a useful and informative manner
2. use the basic concepts of probability and random variables
3. explain the concept of the sampling distribution of a static and describe the behavior of the sample mean
4. describe the foundations of classical inference involving confidence intervals and hypothesis testing and apply inferential
methods
5. apply modeling techniques in simple and multiple linear regression analysis
6. discuss critical elements in the design of a sampling experiment and analyze designed experiments using analysis of variance
7. analyze count data with two or more categories
8. use R for statistical analysis of data
9. defend empirical analysis effectively, both in oral and written forms

UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES

General Learning Goals & Objectives
Goal 1 –Effective Written and Oral Communication
Objective: Students will demonstrate effective writing and oral communication skills
Goal 2 –Ethical Understanding and Reasoning
Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to identify and address ethical issues in an
organizational context.
Goal 3 – Analytical Thinking and Problem Solving Skills
Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to identify key problems and generate viable
solutions.
Goal 4 – Application of Information Technology
Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to use current technologies in business and
management context.
Goal 5 – Teamwork in Diverse and Multicultural Environments
Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to work effectively in diverse environments.
Goal 6 – Understanding Organizational Ecosystems
Objective: Students will demonstrate that they have an understanding of Economic, Political,
Regulatory, Legal, Technological, and Social environment of organizations.

Major Specific Learning Goals & Objectives

Goal 7 (a) – Discipline Specific Knowledge and Understanding
Objective: Students will demonstrate knowledge of key business disciplines and how they interact
including application to real world situations (Including subject knowledge).
Goal 7 (b) – Understanding the “science” behind the decision-making process (for MGS Majors)
Objective: Students will demonstrate ability to analyze a business problem, design and apply
appropriate decision-support tools, interpret results and make meaningful recommendations to support
the decision-maker

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Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program learning goals and
objectives.

Program Learning Goals and Objectives Course Learning Objectives Course Assessment Item
Goal 1 –Effective Written and Oral Students get a number of opportunities to Project, Exam
Communication demonstrate their ability to communicate
effectively (CLO # 5)
Goal 2 –Ethical Understanding and Students demonstrate an honest reporting Project
Reasoning and use of data (CLO #5)
Goal 3 – Analytical Thinking and Problem This is an important objective of the Assignments, Project and Exam
Solving Skills course (CLO # 1,3,5)
Goal 4 – Application of Information Students learn to use R for data analysis Assignments and Project
Technology (CLO # 4)
Goal 5 – Teamwork in Diverse and Students work in groups on the project Project
Multicultural Environments
Goal 6 – Understanding Organizational NA NA
Ecosystems
Goal 7 (a) – Discipline Specific Knowledge Comprehensive coverage of topics in Assignments, Project and Exam
and Understanding elementary probability and statistics (CLO
# 1-5 & LO # 1-9)
Goal 7 (b) – Understanding the “science” Students apply appropriate statistical Assignments, Project and Exam
behind the decision-making process methods to answer data-based decision
problems
(CLO # 1-5)

Grading Breakup and Policy

Attendance and CP: 10%
Mid-term examination: 30%
Individual Assignments/ Quizzes: 15%
Group Project: 15% (to be completed in groups of up to 5 students. Note: Group peer assessments will be used to assess participation.)
Final Examination: 30% (based on post mid-term material only)

Attendance: Students are expected to attend all classes. Up to 4 absences will not result in grade reduction. 1% aggregate score reduction for
every additional absence. A student with 8 absences will get a D grade
Class Participation (CP): CP will be marked out of 2. Each student can participate at most two times.
At times, you will also be asked to answer a short question from the topic of discussion. It will also be graded out of 2 . One mark for attendance
and one mark for the correct answer.
Mid-term examination: The mid-term examination will be paper-based and will test on materials covered in the first half of the course.
Individual Assignments/ Quizzes: Announced quizzes/assignments will be conducted on a regular basis.
Group Project: The group project will be accomplished throughout the semester in steps. The steps include setting the research question, data
collection/extraction, descriptive data analysis, regression modelling, interpretation of results and group presentations in class.
Final Examination: The final examination will be paper-based and will test the understanding of the materials covered in the second half of the
course.

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Examination Detail

Yes/No: Yes
Midterm
Combine Separate: Combined for 3 sections
Exam Duration: 2 hours
Exam Specifications: closed book and notes

Yes/No: Yes
Combine Separate: Combined for 3 sections.
Final Exam
Duration: 3 hours
Exam Specifications: TBA

COURSE OVERVIEW
Recommended
Lecture Topics Objectives
Readings
Statistics, Data and Statistical Thinking Chapter 1 • Understand the nature and scope of
The Science of Statistics; Types of Statistical Statistics
1-2
Applications in Business; Fundamental Elements of Statistics;
Types of Data
Methods for Describing Sets of Data using R Chapter 2 • Choose a suitable way of presenting
Graphical Methods; Summation Notation; Central raw Statistical Data
3–6
Tendency; Variability; Relative Standing; Standard Deviation; • Discuss the advantages and
Distorting the Truth with Descriptive Techniques disadvantages of different ways of
representing data
• Calculate and interpret measures of
central tendency and variability
• Describe data using R
Probability Chapter 3 • Describe the sample space for
Events, Sample Spaces and Probability; Unions and certain random experiments
7-8 Intersections; Complementary Events; The Additive Rule and • Compute probabilities
Mutually Exclusive Events; Conditional Probability; The
Multiplicative Rule and Independent Events; Bayes’ Rule
Random Variables and Probability Distributions • Find probabilities for distributions
Two Types of Random Variables: over discrete sets
Discrete Random Variables: Probability Distributions for Chapter 4 • Calculate the mean and variance of
Discrete Random Variables; Expected Values of Discrete a discrete random variable
Random Variables; The Binomial Random Variable; The • Recognize cases where Binomial
Poisson Random Variable Distribution could be an appropriate
Continuous Random Variables: Probability Distributions for model; compute probabilities for a
9 - 11 Continuous Random Variables; The Uniform Distribution; Binomial Distribution
The Normal Distribution; The Exponential Distribution • Find probabilities for continuous
Sampling Distributions: The Concept of Sampling distributions
Distributions; Properties of Sampling Distributions: • Use the key properties of the
Unbiasedness and Minimum Variance; The Sampling Chapter 5 Normal Distributions
Distribution of the Sample Mean • Recognize cases where Poisson,
Uniform and Exponential
Distributions could be appropriate
and compute corresponding
probabilities
• Describe properties of the sampling
distribution of sample mean
• Understand and apply Central Limit
Theorem
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Inference Based on a Single Sample: • Calculate and interpret Confidence
Estimation with Confidence Intervals Chapter 6 Intervals and Confidence Levels
Large-Sample Confidence interval for a Population Mean; • Remember steps in Classical
Small-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Mean; Hypothesis testing
Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population • Describe Type I and Type II Errors
Proportion; Determining the sample size; Sample Survey • Conduct Tests of Hypothesis
Designs according to a given situation and
Tests of Hypothesis interpret the results.
12 - 14 The Elements of a Test of Hypothesis; Large-Sample Test of Chapter 7
Hypothesis About a Population Mean; Small-Sample Test of
Hypothesis About a Population Mean; Large-Sample Test of
Hypothesis About a Population Proportion; Large Sample
Test of Hypothesis about Population Variance; Observed
Significance Levels: p-values; Chi-square tests. Chapter 10

15 Mid Term Examination

Inference Based on Two Samples Chapter 8 • Apply Classical Hypothesis Testing
Comparing Two Population Means: Independent to compare two populations and
Sampling; Comparing Two Population Means: Paired draw inference
16 -17 Difference Experiments; Comparing Two Population
Proportions: Independent Sampling; Determining the
Sample Size; Comparing Two Population Variances:
Independent Sampling
Simple Linear Regression Chapter 11 • Define the concept of least squares
Probabilistic Models; Fitting the Model: The Least estimation in linear regression
Squares Approach; Model Assumptions; Assessing the Utility • Explain why correlation need not
of the Model: Making Inference about the Slope; The necessarily imply causation
Coefficients of Correlation and Determination; Using the • Evaluate the fit of a linear model
18– 19 Model for Estimation and Prediction • Conduct inference for the slope and
intercept parameters
• Fit a linear regression model using
R, do post-estimation analysis and
explain computer output
Multiple Regression and Model Building using R Chapter 12 • Define the concept of Least Squares
Regression in Multiple Regression
20 - 26 Multiple Regression • Test the utility of a Multiple
Multiple Regression: The Model and the Procedure; Regression Model and use it for
The Least Squares Approach; Model assumptions; Inference estimation and prediction
About the Slope Parameters; Checking the Usefulness of the • Interpret the results of a Multiple
Model: R2 and the Analysis of Variance F-Test; Using the Regression Model and draw
Model for Estimation and Prediction, Residual Analysis: inference
Checking the Regression Assumptions • Understand how to select a model
that is appropriate for given data
Model Building • Use R for Multiple Regression
The Two Types of Independent Variables: Analysis
Quantitative and Qualitative; Models with a Single
Quantitative Independent Variable; Models with Two or
More Quantitative Independent Variables; Testing Portions
of a Model; Models with One Qualitative Independent
Variable; Comparing the Slopes of Two or More Lines;
Comparing Two or More Response Curves

Presentations and review • Effectively defend statistical

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analysis

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Textbook(s)/Supplementary Readings
Required Text:
James McClave, P.George Benson, Terry Sincich. Statistics for Business and Economics. 13th Edition. Prentice Hall, NJ. 2018

Online resources to help you learn R:

https://www.r-project.org/

Peer Evaluation Form

This form is a means to assess the contribution of each group member towards the final project. Please be fair and honest while filling out this
form.

Write the names of your group members against the numbers and then rate each of them including yourself on the following attributes. Rate
against each attribute on a scale of 1-5, at the end just sum the ratings:

5=Superior 4=Above Average 3=Average 2=Below Average 1=Weak

Attribute Myself 1. 2. 3. 4.

Participated in
group discussions

Volunteered for
project tasks

Helped other group

members

Practiced active
listening & was
receptive to group
feedback
Shared resources
and added value to
the project

Contributed to EACH
stage of the project

Submitted
deliverables on time

Contributed good
quality work

Overall contribution