https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/opinion/assad-syria-whats-next.
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GUEST ESSAY
Al-Assad’s Syria Was Brutal.
Will What Comes Next Be
Better?
Dec. 9, 2024
By Daniel Byman
Mr. Byman is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a professor at Georgetown University.
It is hard not to rejoice while watching images of ecstatic Syrians toppling
statues from the regime of the deposed dictator Bashar al-Assad and hearing
the shouts of joy of prisoners, many of whom may have been tortured and
starved, released from his dungeons. Mr. al-Assad’s Syria was brutal for the
regime’s opponents, and 13 years of civil war and a kleptocratic regime made
life dangerous and miserable for ordinary Syrians. In addition to striking a
blow for human freedom, Mr. al-Assad’s fall also removes an Iranian-backed,
anti-American and anti-Israel dictator from the Middle East chessboard.
And yet it is hard not to also feel uneasy. Having watched similar images of
Afghans freed from the Taliban’s violent rule in 2001 and jubilant Iraqis in
2003 after the fall of Saddam Hussein, one worries that Syrians’ sense of deep
relief today could be followed by a new set of horrors tomorrow.
One of the biggest uncertainties facing Syrians and the country’s neighbors is
the true nature of their liberators. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.) has led the
latest round of anti-regime offensives to victory, and it is now the dominant
player among the diverse opposition that formed against Mr. al-Assad over
his 24 years in power. The United States has designated H.T.S. and its leader,
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, as terrorists; there is even a $10 million price on
Mr. al-Jolani’s head.
H.T.S., like the Islamic State, grew out of Jabhat al-Nusra, which in turn
emerged from Al Qaeda in Iraq. Mr. al-Jolani was initially loyal to Al Qaeda
when ISIS split from it but, in 2016, he publicly rejected the organization and
formed H.T.S. a year later. Mr. al-Jolani has repeatedly stated that he opposes
foreign terrorist attacks and rejects an ISIS-type caliphate, and in H.T.S.-
controlled areas he has tried to suppress fighters loyal to Al Qaeda and ISIS.
This is encouraging, but it is also possible that the H.T.S. leader has merely
been pragmatic, turning against these groups temporarily in a bid for power,
and could be willing to work with them once again in the future.
How whatever government takes shape will govern Syria’s diverse
population is another open question. Mr. al-Jolani has told Christian, Druse
and other minority leaders that they are free to worship, but his followers
remain committed to an extreme version of Islam, and the group’s track
record is mixed. The U.S. State Department reports that H.T.S. has committed
human rights abuses against minorities and seized the property of displaced
Christians. In parts of the country that have been under its control, H.T.S. has
placed limits on public displays of Christianity, even when it tolerated
Christian worship.
Even if H.T.S. itself reins in its most extreme elements, the Islamic State may
grow in power. Well before the latest offensive, the Islamic State was on pace
in 2024 to double its number of attacks in Iraq and Syria during 2023. It now
has an estimated 2,500 fighters in Iraq and Syria, with established training
camps in remote areas. Thousands of Islamic State fighters are also detained
in Syria, and some may be released. As various opposition groups scramble
for power, the Islamic State may gain more territory and freedom for its
operations.
It’s unclear whether H.T.S. will be able to consolidate power, cooperate with
rivals and form a stable government. It is the strongest opposition group in
Syria now, but it is not the only one. The United States has long worked with
the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces to fight the Islamic State,
maintaining around 900 troops there. The S.D.F. seized more territory as
regime forces fell apart, and in other parts of the country, local militias also
took advantage of the chaos. A unified government may emerge from all this,
but in the short term at least it is more likely that different groups will
dominate different parts of the country and, if the past is any guide, may end
up turning their guns on one another in the struggle for power.
It is possible that H.T.S. and the other militia groups, as well as local residents,
could take revenge on Mr. al-Assad’s supporters and minority communities,
especially the Alawites, who made up the core of the Assad regime. To bolster
his power, Mr. al-Assad assembled a coalition of Alawite, Christian, Druse and
other minorities to offset the demographic strength of the country’s Sunni
Muslim majority. Now that power in much of the country is back in Sunni
hands, the once-marginalized may turn on those they see as their former
oppressors. It’s happened before: In 2003, Iraqis began to hunt down
members of the Baath Party whom they blamed for the regime’s atrocities.
Syrians have good reason to hate the people who tortured and oppressed
them, but in these situations it is too often innocent family and community
members, not the truly guilty, who are punished.
If chaos, revenge and infighting consume parts of Syria, the humanitarian
situation may get worse, not better. The war has led to almost seven million
people displaced within Syria and over five million refugees. The good news
is that many of those refugees, who have been living in Turkey, Lebanon and
other countries, may return, but communities linked to Mr. al-Assad may flee
en masse if they are targeted. They will need help in their host countries,
which are already strained, while those returning will come home to
destroyed cities and a defunct economy that will take decades to rebuild.
The world, however, is in no mood to help. On Saturday, President-elect
Donald Trump tweeted, “DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” The wars in Ukraine,
Sudan and Gaza all demand the world’s resources, and Western governments
will be particularly leery of working with H.T.S., even for humanitarian
reasons.
Although humanitarian support will likely be limited, the instability of Syria
is likely to lead to military action by other governments in the region as they
jockey to reposition themselves. Both Iran and Russia are withdrawing their
forces, making it easier for other states to operate and furthering the power
vacuum in the country. Turkey is particularly concerned about the Kurdish-
dominated Syrian Democratic Forces and may act militarily to weaken them.
And Israel will almost certainly fear that the Assad regime, the devil it knew,
will be replaced by a new force that may be less deterrable. Indeed, Jolani is
the H.T.S. leader’s nom de guerre, highlighting his ties to the Golan Heights
that was once part of Syria and that Israel annexed in 1981. Israelis may also
worry that Hezbollah or other Iranian-linked organizations will take
advantage of the situation to conduct operations against Israel.
All this will make it harder for any government to control the country and
impose order.
If the outgoing and incoming administrations in Washington want to avoid
more regional proxy wars, a new humanitarian crisis and a potential
terrorist haven, the next few months should involve careful diplomacy while
maintaining — and ideally increasing — the U.S. military presence in the
area. U.S. leaders should work with allies to press H.T.S. on its commitment to
stopping terrorism and ensuring human rights, work with regional partners
like Turkey and Israel to discourage their meddling, and coordinate a broad
humanitarian response.
We all can hope that Syria is putting its horrific past behind it, but hope is not
a policy. Brutal regimes and devastating civil wars have long legacies. A
focused U.S. effort can alleviate some of Syria’s problems, even if it cannot
solve them completely.
Daniel Byman is the director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at CSIS and a professor in the School
of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
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A version of this article appears in print on , Section A, Page 22 of the New York edition with the headline: Al-Assad Is Gone. Syria Has a Long Road
Ahead.
