Binomial and Poisson Distribution [41 marks]
1. [Maximum mark: 6] 24M.1.AHL.TZ2.9
The number of traffic accidents at a road junction is modelled by a Poisson
distribution with a mean of 0. 76 accidents per week.
(a) Under this model, calculate the probability that
(a.i) there are at least 2 accidents in a particular week. [2]
(a.ii) there will be exactly 3 accidents in a particular 4-week period. [2]
The local traffic authority wishes to determine the probability that, in an 8-week
period, fewer than 2 accidents occur in a week on exactly 5 occasions. It assumes
that the weekly occurrence of accidents is independent of the week in which
these occur.
(b) State the appropriate model that the traffic authority should
use to determine this probability. [2]
2. [Maximum mark: 6] 23N.1.AHL.TZ0.16
When Jef plays basketball, the number of shots he takes during any 6 minutes of
play can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 2. 5.
(a) Find the probability that Jef takes less than 7 shots during any
12 minutes of play. [2]
It can be assumed that the outcomes of the shots are independent of each other,
and the probability of success of a shot is constant. The probability that Jef is
successful with a shot is 0. 4.
It can be assumed that the probability of Jef’s success with a shot is independent
of the number of shots that he takes.
(b) Find the probability that during any 6 minutes of play Jef takes
fewer than 4 shots and is successful at least once. [4]
3. [Maximum mark: 4] 21M.1.AHL.TZ1.1
George goes fishing. From experience he knows that the mean number
of fish he catches per hour is 1. 1. It is assumed that the number of fish
he catches can be modelled by a Poisson distribution.
On a day in which George spends 8 hours fishing, find the probability
that he will catch more than 9 fish. [4]
4. [Maximum mark: 14] 21M.2.AHL.TZ2.5
Hank sets up a bird table in his garden to provide the local birds with some food.
Hank notices that a specific bird, a large magpie, visits several times per month
and he names him Bill. Hank models the number of times per month that Bill
visits his garden as a Poisson distribution with mean 3. 1.
(a) Using Hank’s model, find the probability that Bill visits the
garden on exactly four occasions during one particular month. [1]
Over the course of 3 consecutive months, find the probability that Bill visits the
garden:
(b.i) on exactly 12 occasions. [2]
(b.ii) during the first and third month only. [3]
(c) Find the probability that over a 12-month period, there will be
exactly 3 months when Bill does not visit the garden. [4]
(d) After the first year, a number of baby magpies start to visit
Hank’s garden. It may be assumed that each of these baby
magpies visits the garden randomly and independently, and
that the number of times each baby magpie visits the garden
per month is modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean
2. 1.
Determine the least number of magpies required, including Bill,
in order that the probability of Hank’s garden having at least 30
magpie visits per month is greater than 0. 2. [4]
5. [Maximum mark: 4] 20N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_2
Jenna is a keen book reader. The number of books she reads during
one week can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 2. 6.
Determine the expected number of weeks in one year, of 52 weeks,
during which Jenna reads at least four books. [4]
6. [Maximum mark: 7] 20N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_5
A survey of British holidaymakers found that 15 % of those surveyed took a
holiday in the Lake District in 2019.
A random sample of 16 British holidaymakers was taken. The number of
people in the sample who took a holiday in the Lake District in 2019 can be
modelled by a binomial distribution.
(a.i) State two assumptions made in order for this model to be valid. [2]
(a.ii) Find the probability that at least three people from the sample
took a holiday in the Lake District in 2019. [2]
(b) From a random sample of n holidaymakers, the probability
that at least one of them took a holiday in the Lake District in
2019 is greater than 0. 999.
Determine the least possible value of n.
[3]
© International Baccalaureate Organization, 2024
