MASTER RECHERCHE M2
MÉCANIQUE DES SOLS, DES ROCHES ET DES OUVRAGES DANS LEUR
ENVIRONNEMENT (MSROE)
LOSS ASSESSMENT FOR NATURAL HAWARDS (LANH)
ASSIGNMENT 01
Student : Teacher :
Kandy Manuela Teheran Ochoa M. Karin Tarbali, PhD
Année Scolaire : 2024-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................. 4
2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE QUESTIONS ........................................................................... 4
2.1 Question 1 : Distribution Lognormal (PDF) ......................................................................... 4
Mode: .................................................................................................................................................... 4
Median:.................................................................................................................................................. 4
Mean: ..................................................................................................................................................... 4
PDF: ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Question 4 : Seismic intensity metrics (PGA, PGV, SA(1.0)).............................................. 5
Logarithmic Transformation: ................................................................................................................ 5
2.3 Question 5 : Exceedance Probabilities .................................................................................. 6
2.4 Question 6 : Percentile Analysis (Boore-Joyner-Fumal 97 Model) ...................................... 7
2.5 Question 7 : PDFs and Exceedance Probabilities for Specific Distances ............................. 8
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LISTE OF FIGURES
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LISTE OF TABLE
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1 INTRODUCTION
2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE QUESTIONS
2.1 Question 1 : Distribution Lognormal (PDF)
Mode:
𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒 = exp(𝜇 − 𝜎 2 )
Median:
𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 = exp(𝜇)
Mean:
𝜎2
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = exp (𝜇 − )
2
PDF:
1 (ln(𝑥) − 𝜇)2
𝑓(𝑥) = exp (− )
𝑥𝜎√2𝜋 2𝜎 2
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2.2 Question 4 : Seismic intensity metrics (PGA, PGV, SA(1.0))
Logarithmic Transformation:
ln(𝑥)
Logarithmic Mean (𝜇)
𝑁
1
𝜇 = ∑ ln(𝑥𝑖 )
𝑁
𝑖=1
Logarithmic Standard Deviation (σ):
𝑁
1
𝜎 = √ ∑(ln(𝑥𝑖 ) − 𝜇)2
𝑁
𝑖=1
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2.3 Question 5 : Exceedance Probabilities
ln(𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑) − 𝜇
𝑃(𝐼𝑀 > 𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑) = 1 − ф ( )
𝜎
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Results for μ and σ (on logarithmic scale):
PGA: μ = -1.2537, σ = 0.6162
PGV: μ = 3.7345, σ = 0.4969
SA(1.0): μ = -0.9771, σ = 0.5770
{'PGA': 0.18153101822850182,
'PGV': 0.9805724891516356,
'SA(1.0)': 0.7609130085369213}
2.4 Question 6 : Percentile Analysis (Boore-Joyner-Fumal 97 Model)
Empirical model for ln (SA)
𝑉𝑠30
ln(SA) = −1.50 + 0.5 ∗ Mw − ln(R + 1) + 0.3 ∗ ln ( )
760
16th percentile:
ln(SA) − 𝜎
50th percentile:
ln(SA)
84th percentile:
ln(SA) + 𝜎
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2.5 Question 7 : PDFs and Exceedance Probabilities for Specific Distances
PDF for a specific distance
1 (ln(𝑥) − 𝜇𝑅)2
𝑓(𝑥) = exp (− )
𝑥𝜎√2𝜋 2𝜎 2
Where :
𝑉𝑠30
𝜇𝑅 = −1.50 + 0.5 ∗ Mw − ln(R + 1) + 0.3 ∗ ln ( )
760
Exceedance probability for SA (1.0)
ln(𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑) − 𝜇𝑅
𝑃(𝐼𝑀 > 𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑) = 1 − ф ( )
𝜎
Where ф is the standard cumulative distribution
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