Financial Modeling – Express Fiji
Financial Modeling –
Express Fiji
Express Fiji is a project company that was awarded the
contract to build and operate a highway in a city in Fiji in
2023. (Fiji is an island country in the South Pacific
Ocean).
UK Aid supports the project, and here are some details
about it:
A. Timing of the project
• Concession contract duration: 40 years
• Construction duration: 4 years
• Operations duration: 36 years
B. Traffic & Project Revenues
Project revenues come from tolls.
Following traffic studies, the estimated traffic on the future road the first year of
operation is:
• 3 125 000 Passenger Car (PC) per year
• 2 800 000 Heavy vehicle (HV) per year
Traffic will then evolve by 2% per year.
The tariff (2023 value) applied to each vehicle is as follows:
• 3,56 £/PC
• 13,96 £/HV
The project company anticipates an inflation of 4% per year (starting from contract
award).
C. Maintenance Costs
The cost of maintenance (including heavy maintenance and SPV costs during
operation) has been estimated annually at £8,9M per year (value 2023).
The project company anticipates an inflation of maintenance costs of 4% per year
(starting from contract award).
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Financial Modeling – Express Fiji
D. CAPEX
The construction cost (including SPV costs during operation) has been estimated at
£75M per year of construction.
E. Project Financing
Funding will be provided in the form of non-recourse financing, i.e., equity and senior
debt. The project company has secured binding funding offers on the following basis:
Debt:
- Door-to-door maturity: 40 years (for the sake of this exercise)
- Gearing: 65/35
- Fixed Rate:
o Base Interest Rate: 1,50%
o Fixed Rate Margin: 5,85%
o Arrangement fee: 1,50%
o Engagement fee: 35,00% of margin
F. Tax & Accounting assumptions
As a simplification, it is envisaged that for:
- Accounting: all investments are amortized on a linear basis over the term of
the concession as of the commissioning of the motorway.
- Tax: The only tax is the corporate tax, and the rate is equal to 30%.
What should be the tariff charged to HVs in order to obtain an IRR of 23% ?