ll O utsiders • Edited by Aaron Schatz

pe rts at Fo otba
By the ex
TIAL G U ID E TO TH E 2022
THE ESSEN
G E F O OT BA L L S E AS ONS
NFL AND COLLE

ALMANAC 2022
 THE ESSENTIAL GUIDE TO THE 2022 NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASONS

Edited by Aaron Schatz

With

J.P. Acosta • Thomas Bassinger • Cale Clinton • Parker Fleming • Brian Fremeau
Derrik Klassen • Bryan Knowles • Rivers McCown • Preston Pack • Dan Pizzuta
Scott Spratt • Mike Tanier • Vincent Verhei • Robert Weintraub • Carl Yedor

Copyright 2022, Champion Gaming Group Inc.

ISBN: 9798840151822
All rights reserved

Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior written permission of the copyright owner listed above.
 Table of Contents
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Indianapolis Colts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

Pregame Show . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Jacksonville Jaguars. . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Statistical Toolbox. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii Kansas City Chiefs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

The Year In Quotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . xxxii Las Vegas Raiders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Full 2022 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xl Los Angeles Chargers. . . . . . . . . . . . 138

NFL TEAMS Los Angeles Rams. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

Arizona Cardinals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Miami Dolphins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Atlanta Falcons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Minnesota Vikings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Baltimore Ravens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 New England Patriots. . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Buffalo Bills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 New Orleans Saints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Carolina Panthers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 New York Giants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

Chicago Bears. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 New York Jets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

Cincinnati Bengals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Philadelphia Eagles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

Cleveland Browns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Pittsburgh Steelers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

Dallas Cowboys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 San Francisco 49ers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218

Denver Broncos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Seattle Seahawks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Detroit Lions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. . . . . . . . . . . 235

Green Bay Packers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Tennessee Titans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

Houston Texans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Washington Commanders. . . . . . . . . 251

iii
iv TABLE OF CONTENTS
NFL PLAYERS

Quarterbacks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259

Running Backs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290

Wide Receivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330

Tight Ends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383

2022 Kicker Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403

2022 Fantasy Defense Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Introduction and Statistical Toolbox. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405

NCAA Top 50. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408

NCAA Win Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452

NCAA F+ Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456

FURTHER RESEARCH

FO Rookie Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459

Top 25 Prospects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463

Fantasy Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470

Statistical Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475

Author Bios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494

 Introduction
T here’s more than one way to skin a cat. Or, in this case, a
Bengal tiger.
Since the debut of Football Outsiders nearly 20 years ago,
every football used on the field. The NFL now provides some
of that data to the public to create new analytics in their annual
Big Data Bowl. Those who don’t have access to this tracking
we have been at the forefront of football analytics. We have data have created their own new metrics using game charting
made a lot of the arguments you are familiar with from foot- data, such as the data collected by our partners at Sports Info
ball analytics. We have argued for teams to spread the field, Solutions. And a whole community of analysts has sprouted
to pass more, and to run less. We have argued for teams to be up on Twitter, developing new ways to look at the game and
more aggressive on fourth downs. And we have argued for debating the great questions of current NFL fandom.
teams to amass as many draft picks as possible and build their As the original football analytics website, Football Outsid-
rosters with young players who take up less salary cap space ers is still doing its part to challenge conventional wisdom and
and have room to develop and grow. look deeper inside the numbers. Yes, there are a lot of tables of
On the surface, it certainly looks like the Rams ignored this numbers in this book, but words are the meat of our analysis;
advice in building their Super Bowl championship team from numbers are just the spice. There’s a rumor that stat analysts
2021. The Rams have traded away numerous draft picks, in- don’t watch game tape. In reality, stat analysts watch more
cluding first-round selections, for older veteran players. In tape than a lot of other writers, and a lot more tape than the
reality, these moves were analytically driven as well. Much average fan. We take everything we learn off the tape, synthe-
of sports analytics is about spotting a market inefficiency and size it with the statistics, and deliver it to you.
taking advantage of it. The Rams saw that veteran players Everybody who writes about football uses both statistics
were being undervalued in the market and draft picks were (whether they be basic yardage totals or more advanced stats
being overvalued, and they stepped in to take advantage. like ours) and scouting (whether scouting reports by profes-
There’s a general impression that the Rams are not an analyti- sionals or just their own eyes). The same goes for us, except
cal, forward-thinking franchise. The “all in” strategy contrib- that the statistics portion of our analysis is far more accurate
utes to that, as does the fact that Sean McVay is not among the than what you normally see from football coverage. Those
more aggressive head coaches in the NFL on fourth downs. But numbers are based on three ideas:
the Rams do have an analytics department, with Sarah Bailey,
Jake Temme, and Ryan Garlisch playing a significant role in the 1) Conventional football statistics are heavily dependent
front office. Jordan Rodrigue of The Athletic has written about on context. Down and distance, field position, the current
how the Rams use data to identify later-round prospects. With score, time left on the clock, the quality of the opponent—all
all the early draft picks they have traded away, the Rams have of these elements influence the objective of the play and/or its
depended on these later-round youngsters to build depth on the outcome. Yet the official NFL stats add together all yardage
roster. And to identify these players, they have used analytics. gained by a specific team or player without considering the
There’s more than one way to skin a cat. There’s more than impact of that particular yardage on wins and losses. In addi-
one way to win a Super Bowl. And there are more facets to tion, filtering out bits of luck and random chance can help us
football analytics than you might realize. figure out which teams are really more likely to play better for
The goal of football analytics is not to get teams to go for it the rest of the season, or even in the following season.
on fourth down or pass the ball more just because those plays
are more exciting (although they are.) The goal isn’t to ruin 2) On any one play, the majority of the important ac-
running back salaries. The goal isn’t to obtain as many draft tion is not tracked by conventional NFL play-by-play. We
picks as possible, no matter what. The goal of football analytics partner with both ESPN Stats & Info and Sports Info Solu-
is simple: use data to understand the game better. That is the tions to collect data on every single NFL regular-season and
goal whether you are managing a team in the NFL trying to win postseason play. We know how many pass-rushers teams send
a Super Bowl or whether you are just managing your fantasy on each pass, how often teams go three-wide or use two tight
football team and trying to beat your friends for bragging rights. ends, how often teams use a play-action fake, and which de-
This is the goal of Football Outsiders and has been since fensive backs are in coverage, even when they don’t get a
we first pioneered analytical coverage of the NFL in 2003. We tackle in the standard play-by-play.
love the game of football. We want to understand it better. We
use data to do that. 3) A player’s production in one year does not necessar-
The expansion of football analytics over the last few years ily equal his production the next year. This also applies to
has been remarkable. Seth Walder of ESPN keeps a list of teams, of course. Even when stats are accurate, they’re often
NFL analytics staffers; as of now, all 32 teams have at least extremely variable from year to year and subject to heavy forc-
one name on his list. Many of these data scientists have devel- es of regression to the mean. Field goal percentage, red zone
oped new metrics (a.k.a. “Next Gen Stats”) using the tracking performance, third-down performance on defense, intercep-
systems that are now installed in every player’s pads and in tions and fumble recoveries—these are but a few examples. In
v
vi INTRODUCTION

addition, the age curves for football players are much steeper the regular season. The Bengals were well below that, ranked
than in other sports. Old players break down faster, and young 17th, making them one of the weakest regular-season teams
players often improve faster. Many football analysts concen- to ever make it to the Super Bowl. Prefer to go by wins and
trate on looking at what players did last year. We’ll talk about losses instead of our metrics? Both teams were fourth seeds as
that as well, but we’re more interested in what players are the weakest of the division champions last season.
going to do this year. Which performances from a year ago The No. 1 team in our regular-season DVOA ratings hasn’t
are flukes, and which ones represent long-term improvement won the Super Bowl since the 2016 New England Patriots,
or decline? What will one more year of experience do to this and no No. 1 seed won the Super Bowl since the 2017 Phila-
player’s production? And how will a player’s role change this delphia Eagles. To win a championship, it’s not enough to be
year, and what does it mean for the team? very good. You need to be both lucky and good.
As with past books, Football Outsiders Almanac 2022 starts
Projecting each team and player for the coming year instead off with “Pregame Show” (reviewing the most important re-
of just scrutinizing last year’s performance is particularly im- search from past books) and “Statistical Toolbox” (explaining
portant for the 2022 season. As we detail in the Los Angeles all our stats). Once again, we preserve the ridiculousness of the
Rams chapter later in this book, other teams may not be able football season for posterity with another version of “The Year
to follow the Rams’ strategy for building a Super Bowl cham- in Quotes” and we introduce you to some of the more promis-
pion—precisely because other teams seem to be following the ing (and lesser known) young bench players with our 16th an-
Rams’ strategy for building a Super Bowl champion. Teams are nual list of Top 25 Prospects chosen in the third round or later.
more willing than ever to make huge trades for the most pro- Each NFL team gets a full chapter covering what happened
ductive veterans, and that led to the crazy carousel of superstar in 2021 and our projections for the upcoming season. Are there
moves this offseason. Russell Wilson, traded. Tyreek Hill, trad- reasons to believe that the team was better or worse than its re-
ed. Davante Adams. Khalil Mack. Amari Cooper. All traded. cord last year? What did the team do in the offseason, and what
These big-name trades, along with the usual mixture of does that mean for the team’s chances to win in 2022? Each
free-agent signings, have shuffled the NFL landscape for chapter also includes all kinds of advanced statistics covering
2022. With the movement of players from some of last year’s 2021 performance and strategic tendencies, plus detailed com-
best teams to some of last year’s more mediocre squads, teams mentary on each of the major units of the team: offensive line,
are coming into the 2022 NFL season packed closer together defensive front seven, defensive secondary, and special teams.
than ever before. Every year, we simulate the season a million “Skill players” (by which we mean “players who get count-
times and make predictions. The central tendency is very pow- ed in fantasy football”) get their own section in the back of the
erful in this year’s simulation. Our Super Bowl favorites for book. We list the major players at each position alphabetically,
2022, the Buffalo Bills, come out making winning the Super along with commentary and a 2022 KUBIAK projection that
Bowl in slightly more than 10% of our simulations. That’s the will help you win your fantasy football league.
worst odds we have ever produced for the team that goes into Next comes our preview of the college football season. We
a season with the highest odds in the league (Table 1). go in-depth with the top 50 projected teams in the nation. Just
like with our NFL coverage, the goal of our college previews
Table 1. Football Outsiders is to focus as much as possible on “why” and “how,” not just
“which team is better.” We’re not just here to rank the Football
Almanac Super Bowl Bowl Subdivision teams from 1 to 131. We break things down
to look at offense and defense, to consider returning talent
Favorites, 2015-2022 levels, and to analyze passes and runs in specific situations.
We hope our book helps you raise your level of football
Year Team Odds Actual Champ Odds expertise, win arguments with your friends, and win your fan-
2015 SEA 14.8% DEN 8.3% tasy football league. Occasionally, there are also jokes. Just
2016 SEA 13.7% NE 10.4% remember that all our predictions are based on a range of pos-
2017 NE 21.8% PHI 2.1% sibilities. We didn’t expect the Bengals to follow up a 4-11-1
2018 PIT 13.8% NE 13.4% season with an AFC championship, and we didn’t expect the
2019 NO 12.3% KC 6.5% Bearcats to become the first Group of 5 team to make the Col-
2020 KC 15.9% TB 4.5% lege Football Playoff. Expect the unexpected, even in cities
2021 TB 13.1% LAR 3.5% that are not Cincinnati. That’s part of the fun of football.
2022 BUF 10.4% -- --
Aaron Schatz
It’s also important to understand that our predictions are Auburn, MA
based on probabilities. Even the team that looks like the worst July 11, 2022
in the NFL going into the season has a chance to win the Super
Bowl, and the best team doesn’t always take the trophy home at P.S. Don’t forget to visit FootballOutsiders.com every day
the end of the year. The 2021 season is a great example of this. for fresh coverage of the NFL and college football, plus the
The 2021 Rams were only fifth in our DVOA ratings during most intelligent football discussion threads on the Internet.
 Pregame Show
I t has now been 19 years since we launched Football Outsid-
ers. In that time, we’ve done a lot of primary research on
the National Football League, and we reference that research
used to have to explain that optimal strategies from 1974 are
not optimal strategies for today. But this would seem to be a
smaller problem now than it was 10 years ago; most current
in many of the articles and comments in Football Outsiders NFL analysts played the game in the 1990s or beyond, when
Almanac 2022. New readers may come across an offhand the game was heavily pass-centric.
comment in a team chapter about, for example, the idea that Another issue may be a confusion of professional football
fumble recovery is not a skill, and wonder what in the heck with other levels. As you go down the football pyramid, from
we are talking about. We can’t repeat all our research in every NFL teams to FBS to FCS to Division II and so on, all the way
new edition of Football Outsiders Almanac, so we start each down to high school, at every level further down the running
year with a basic look at some of the most important precepts game becomes more important. Strategies that win on Satur-
that have emerged from Football Outsiders research. You will day do not necessarily win on Sunday.
see these issues come up again and again throughout the book.
You can also find this introduction online at http://www. A great defense against the run is nothing without a good
footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics, along with links to the pass defense.
original research in the cases in which that research appeared This is a corollary to the absurdity of “establish the run.”
online instead of (or as well as) in print. With rare exceptions, teams win or lose with the passing game
Our various methods for projecting NFL success for col- more than the running game—and by stopping the passing
lege prospects are not listed below but are referenced at times game more than the running game. Ron Jaworski puts it best:
during the book. Those methods are detailed in an essay on “The pass gives you the lead, and the run solidifies it.” The
page 459. reason why teams need a strong run defense in the playoffs is
not to shut the run down early; it’s to keep the other team from
You run when you win, not win when you run. icing the clock if they get a lead. You can’t mount a comeback
If we could only share one piece of anti-conventional wis- if you can’t stop the run.
dom with you before you read the rest of our book, this would
be it. The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was Running on third-and-short is more likely to convert than
devoted to debunking the myth of “establishing the run.” passing on third-and-short.
There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your run- On average, passing will always gain more yardage than
ning backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the running, with one very important exception: when a team is
game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; just 1 or 2 yards away from a new set of downs or the goal
it has to run successfully. line. On third-and-1, a run will convert for a new set of downs
There is also no evidence that running the ball more early 36% more often than a pass. Expand that to all third or fourth
in the game creates the opportunity for longer gains late in the downs with 1 or 2 yards to go and the run is successful 40%
game, i.e., the so-called “body blows” thesis. And there is no more often. With these percentages, the possibility of a long
evidence that passing the ball too frequently puts the defense gain with a pass is not worth the tradeoff of an incompletion
on the field too much and tires it out. that kills a drive.
Why does nearly every beat writer and television analyst This is one reason why teams have to be able to both run and
still repeat the tired old-school mantra that “establishing the pass. The offense also has to keep some semblance of balance
run” is the secret to winning football games? The biggest issue so they can use their play-action fakes—you can’t run a play-
is confusing cause and effect. There are exceptions, but for the fake from an empty set—and so the defense doesn’t just run
most part, winning teams have a lot of carries because their their nickel and dime packages all game. Balance also means
running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not that teams do need to pass occasionally in short-yardage situa-
because they are running wild early in games. tions; they just need to do it less than they do now. Teams pass
A sister statement to “you have to establish the run” is roughly 60% of the time on third-and-2 even though runs in
“team X is 8-1 when running back John Doe runs for at least that situation convert 20% more often than passes. They pass
100 yards.” Unless John Doe is possessed by otherworldly 68% of the time on fourth-and-2 even though runs in that situ-
spirits the way Adrian Peterson was a few years ago, the team ation convert twice as often as passes.
isn’t winning because of his 100-yard games. He’s putting up
100-yard games because his team is winning. You don’t need to run a lot to set up play-action.
At this point, it’s hard to figure out why so many commenta- Of course, the idea that you have to run a little bit so play-
tors and fans still overrate the importance of the running game. action will work doesn’t mean you have to run as often as
One problem has always been history. Older NFL analysts and NFL teams currently do. There’s no correlation between a
fans came of age during the 1970s, when the rules favored the team’s rushing frequency or success rate rushing and its play-
running game much more than those in the modern NFL. We action effectiveness over the course of either a single game
vii
viii PREGAME SHOW

or an entire season. That doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be a 27 of them per game, and you can’t afford to give one up for
correlation at an extreme run/pass ratio, but we have yet to very little return. So imagine if there was a new rule in base-
see an NFL team that even comes close to what that extreme ball that gave a team a way to earn another three outs in the
might be. middle of the inning. That would be pretty useful, right?
That’s the way football works. You may start a drive 80
Standard team rankings based on total yardage are inher- yards away from scoring, but as long as you can earn 10 yards
ently flawed. in four chances, you get another four chances. Long gains
Check out the schedule page on NFL.com, and you will find have plenty of value, but if those long gains are mixed with a
that each game is listed with league rankings based on total lot of short gains, you are going to put the quarterback in a lot
yardage. That is still how the NFL “officially” ranks teams, of difficult third-and-long situations. That means more punts
but these rankings rarely match up with common sense. That and more giving the ball back to the other team rather than
is because total team yardage may be the most context-depen- moving the chains and giving the offense four more plays to
dent number in football. work with.
It starts with the basic concept that rate stats are generally The running back who gains consistent yardage is also go-
more valuable than cumulative stats. Yards per carry says more ing to do a lot more for you late in the game, when the goal
about a running back’s quality than total yardage, completion of running the ball is not just to gain yardage but to eat clock
percentage says more than just a quarterback’s total number time. If you are a Giants fan watching your team with a late
of completions. The same thing is true for teams; in fact, it lead, you don’t want to see three straight Saquon Barkley
is even more important because of the way football strategy stuffs at the line followed by a punt. You want to see a game-
influences the number of runs and passes in the game plan. icing first down.
Poor teams will give up fewer passing yards and more rushing A common historical misconception is that our preference
yards because opponents will stop passing once they have a for consistent running backs means that “Football Outsiders
late-game lead and will run out the clock instead. For win- believes that Barry Sanders was overrated.” Sanders wasn’t
ning teams, the opposite is true. For example, which team had just any boom-and-bust running back, though; he was the
a better pass defense last year: Jacksonville or Tampa Bay? greatest boom-and-bust runner of all time, with bigger booms
According to the official NFL rankings, Jacksonville (3,875 and fewer busts. Sanders ranked in the top five in DYAR five
yards allowed on 575 passes and sacks, 6.7 net yards per pass) times (third in 1989, first in 1990, and second in 1994, 1996,
was a better pass defense than Tampa Bay (4,062 yards al- and 1997).
lowed on 727 passes and sacks, 5.6 net yards per pass.)
Total yardage rankings are also skewed because some teams Rushing is more dependent on the offensive line than peo-
play at a faster pace than other teams. For example, last year ple realize, but pass protection is more dependent on the
Baltimore (6,440) had more yardage than Green Bay (6.215). quarterback himself than people realize.
However, the Packers were the superior offense and much Some readers complain that this idea contradicts the previ-
more efficient; they gained those yards on only 162 drives ous one. Aren’t those consistent running backs just the product
while the Ravens needed 190 drives. of good offensive lines? The truth is somewhere in between.
There are certainly good running backs who suffer because
A team will score more when playing a bad defense and their offensive lines cannot create consistent holes, but most
will give up more points when playing a good offense. boom-and-bust running backs contribute to their own prob-
This sounds absurdly basic, but when people consider team lems by hesitating behind the line whenever the hole is un-
and player stats without looking at strength of schedule, they clear, looking for the home run instead of charging forward
are ignoring this. In 2012, for example, rookie Russell Wilson for the 4-yard gain that keeps the offense moving.
had a higher DVOA rating than fellow rookie Robert Griffin III Further research has shown that rushing success is also
because he faced a more difficult schedule, even though Griffin heavily dependent on scheme as well as how the defense sets
had slightly better standard stats. A more recent example: In up against the play, in particular how many men the defense
2021, Tampa Bay and San Francisco were atop the league with puts in the box (i.e., in between the offensive tackles). Re-
6.1 yards per play on offense. Tampa Bay was the better offense search from 2019’s NFL Big Data Bowl suggests that the re-
by DVOA in part because the Buccaneers played the second- sults of a running play can be almost entirely predicted using
hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL while San the movement of the blockers and defenders, without needing
Francisco’s schedule of opposing defenses ranked 25th. to consider the identity of the running back at all. It’s research
like this that has given birth to the popular Twitter saying that
If their overall yards per carry are equal, a running back “running backs don’t matter.” That’s a bit of an extreme; it’s
who consistently gains yardage on every play is more more likely that running backs matter a little bit, but much less
valuable than a boom-and-bust running back who is fre- than NFL wisdom has historically believed, and most of the
quently stuffed at the line but occasionally breaks a long differentiation between different backs comes from their skills
highlight-worthy run. in the passing game.
Our brethren in the baseball analytics world believe that the In addition, “running backs don’t matter” is sometimes mis-
most precious commodity in baseball is outs. Teams only get taken for the idea that the running game doesn’t matter. The
 PREGAME SHOW ix

latter is a bit of an analytical strawman, even if analytics has Each player ran his average route roughly 10.5 yards down-
shown that the running game is less important than the pass- field. Each player was in a generally below-average offense.
ing game. But there was a big reason why Pitts had a much better season
As for pass protection, some quarterbacks have better in- than Anderson: Pitts caught 62% of intended passes and An-
stincts for the rush than others and are thus better at getting derson caught just 48%.
out of trouble by moving around in the pocket or throwing the Some work has been done on splitting responsibility for in-
ball away. Others will hesitate, hold onto the ball too long, and complete passes between quarterbacks and receivers, but not
lose yardage over and over. Sack rates and pressure rates have enough that we can incorporate this into our advanced stats at
strong correlation from year-to-year even when a quarterback this time. We know that wide receiver catch rates are almost
changes teams in between seasons. as consistent from year to year as quarterback completion
Note that “moving around in the pocket” does not neces- percentages, but it is also important to look at catch rate in
sarily mean “scrambling.” In fact, a scrambling quarterback the context of the types of routes each receiver runs. We have
will often take more sacks than a pocket quarterback, because expanded on this idea with our plus/minus metric, which is
while he’s running around trying to make something happen, explained in the introduction to the chapter on wide receivers
a defensive lineman will catch up with him. and tight ends.

Shotgun formations are generally more efficient than for- The total quality of an NFL team is four parts offense,
mations with the quarterback under center. three parts defense, and one part special teams.
From 2013 to 2017, offenses averaged roughly 5.9 yards There are three units on a football team, but they are not of
per play from shotgun (or pistol), but just 5.1 yards per play equal importance. Work by Chase Stuart, Neil Paine, and Brian
with the quarterback under center. Since 2018 that gap has Burke suggests a split between offense and defense of roughly
closed a bit, but offenses still averaged 5.8 yards per play from 58-42, without considering special teams. Our research sug-
shotgun or pistol over the last two seasons compared to 5.2 gests that special teams contributes about 13% to total per-
yards per play with the quarterback under center. This wide formance; if you measure the remaining 87% with a 58-42
split exists even if you analyze the data to try to weed out ratio, you get roughly 4:3:1. When we compare the range of
biases like teams using shotgun more often on third-and-long, offense, defense, and special teams DVOA ratings, we get the
or against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter. Shotgun of- same results, with the best and worst offenses roughly 130%
fense is more efficient if you only look at the first half, on stronger than the best and worst defenses, and roughly four
every down, and even if you only look at running back carries times stronger than the best and worst special teams.
rather than passes and scrambles.
It’s hard to think of a Football Outsiders axiom that has been Offense is more consistent from year to year than defense,
better assimilated by the people running NFL teams since we and offensive performance is easier to project than defen-
started doing this a decade ago. In 2001, NFL teams only used sive performance. Special teams are less consistent than
shotgun on 14% of plays. Five years later, in 2006, that had in- either.
creased slightly, to 20% of plays. By 2012, shotgun was used Nobody in the NFL understood this concept better than for-
on 47.5% of plays (including the pistol, but not counting the mer Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian. Both the
Wildcat or other direct snaps to non-quarterbacks). In 2016, Super Bowl champion Colts and the four-time AFC champion
the league as a whole was up to an average of 64.4% of plays Buffalo Bills of the early 1990s were built around the idea that
from shotgun or pistol. Last year, that average was at 66.4%. if you put together an offense that can dominate the league
There’s an interesting corollary here which we are just start- year after year, eventually you will luck into a year where
ing to study, because there does seem to be one split where good health and a few smart decisions will give you a defense
offenses are less efficient from shotgun: play-action. In 2021, good enough to win a championship. (As the Colts learned
for example, offenses averaged 7.2 yards per play when us- in 2006, you don’t even need a year, just four weeks.) Even
ing play-action from under center compared to 6.7 yards per the New England Patriots, who are led by a defense-first head
play when using play-action from a shotgun formation (not in- coach in Bill Belichick, have been more consistent on offense
cluding penalties). A number of teams that are near the top of than on defense since they began their run of success in 2001.
the league in play-action usage, such as the 49ers and Titans,
are also near the bottom of the league in using shotgun. That Field goal percentage is almost entirely random from sea-
said, the rise of the run-pass option also means that there are son to season, while kickoff distance is one of the most con-
a number of teams that are near the top of the league in both sistent statistics in football.
play-action and shotgun, such as the Dolphins and Cardinals. This theory, which originally appeared in the New York
Times in October 2006, is one of our most controversial, but it
Wide receivers and tight ends must be judged on both is hard to argue against the evidence. Measuring every kicker
complete and incomplete passes. from 2012 to 2018 who had at least 10 field goal attempts
Here’s an example from 2021: Kyle Pitts had 1,026 receiv- in each of two consecutive years, the year-to-year correlation
ing yards while Robby Anderson had just 519 receiving yards, coefficient for field goal percentage was an insignificant .06.
even though the two receivers had the same number of targets. Jason Myers of Seattle is a great example. He was below 80%
x PREGAME SHOW

in both 2016 and 2017. In 2018, he had a Pro Bowl season fumbles as equal, penalizing them based on the likelihood of
and connected on 92% of field goals, which got him a big each type of fumble (run, pass, sack, etc.) being recovered by
contract in Seattle. In 2019, he declined to just 82%. In 2020, the defense.
he rebounded and hit all 24 of his field goal attempts with no Other plays that qualify as “non-predictive events” include
misses. And then in 2021, he was back down to 74% including two-point conversions, blocked kicks, and touchdowns during
two misses from inside 40 yards. turnover returns. These plays are not “lucky,” per se, but they
On the other hand, the year-to-year correlation coefficient have no value whatsoever for predicting future performance.
for touchback percentage from 2012 to 2018, with a minimum
of 10 kickoffs in each of two consecutive years, was .62. The Field position is fluid.
same players consistently lead the league in kickoff distance. As discussed in the Statistical Toolbox, every yard line on the
In recent years, that group includes Justin Tucker, Jake Elliott, field has a value based on how likely a team is to score from that
and Harrison Butker. location on the field as opposed to from a yard further back. The
change in value from one yard to the next is the same whether
Teams with more offensive penalties generally lose more the team has the ball or not. The goal of a defense is not just to
games, but there is no correlation between defensive pen- prevent scoring, but to hold the opposition so that the offense
alties and losses. can get the ball back in the best possible field position. A bad
Specific defensive penalties of course lose games; we’ve all offense will score as many points as a good offense if it starts
sworn at the television when the cornerback on our favorite each drive 5 yards closer to the goal line.
team gets flagged for a 50-yard pass interference penalty. Yet A corollary to this precept: the most underrated aspect of an
overall, there is no correlation between losses and the total NFL team’s performance is the field position gained or lost on
of defensive penalties or even the total yardage on defensive kickoffs and punts. This is part of why players such as Cor-
penalties. One reason is that defensive penalties often repre- darrelle Patterson can have such an impact on the game, even
sent good play, not bad. Cornerbacks who play tight cover- when they aren’t taking a kickoff or punt all the way back for
age may be just on the edge of a penalty on most plays, only a touchdown.
occasionally earning a flag. Defensive ends who get a good
jump on rushing the passer will gladly trade an encroachment The red zone is the most important place on the field to
penalty or two for 10 snaps where they get off the blocks a play well, but performance in the red zone from year to
split-second before the linemen trying to block them. year is much less consistent than overall performance.
In addition, offensive penalties have a higher correlation Although play in the red zone has a disproportionately high
from year to year than defensive penalties. The penalty that importance to the outcome of games relative to plays on the
correlates highest with losses is the false start, and the penalty rest of the field, NFL teams do not exhibit a level of perfor-
that teams will have called most consistently from year to year mance in the red zone that is consistently better or worse than
is also the false start. their performance elsewhere, year after year. The simplest
explanation why is a small(er) sample size and the inherent
Recovery of a fumble, despite being the product of hard variance of football, with contributing factors like injuries and
work, is almost entirely random. changes in personnel.
Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill.
Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not Injuries regress to the mean on the seasonal level, and
a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the per- teams that avoid injuries in a given season tend to win
centage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the more games.
percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery There are no doubt teams with streaks of good or bad health
are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or over multiple years, and we have found some correlation from
any of their players. year-to-year in each team’s level of injuries. However, teams
Let’s take the Carolina Panthers as an example. In 2020, the who were especially healthy or especially unhealthy, as mea-
Panthers defense recovered 13 of 18 fumbles by opponents sured by our adjusted games lost (AGL) metric, almost always
(72%), the highest rate in the league. The next year, the Pan- head towards league average in the subsequent season. Fur-
thers recovered only eight of 20 fumbles on defense (40%). thermore, injury—or the absence thereof—has a huge correla-
Fumble recovery is equally erratic on offense. In 2020, the tion with wins, and a significant impact on a team’s success.
Dallas Cowboys recovered only four of 17 fumbles on offense There’s no doubt that a few high-profile teams have resisted
(24%), the lowest rate in the league. In 2021, the Cowboys this trend in recent years. The Patriots often deal with a high
recovered 15 of 23 fumbles on offense (65%) instead. number of injuries, and the 2017 Eagles obviously overcame
Fumble recovery is a major reason why the general pub- a number of important injuries to win the championship. Last
lic overestimates or underestimates some teams. Fumbles are year, Super Bowl opponents Los Angeles and Cincinnati both
huge, turning-point plays that dramatically impact wins and ranked among the top eight teams for fewest AGL. Ten of the
losses in the past, while fumble recovery percentage says ab- 14 playoff teams finished in the top half of the league. Mean-
solutely nothing about a team’s chances of winning games in while, out of the 10 teams with the highest overall AGL, only
the future. With this in mind, Football Outsiders stats treat all San Francisco made the playoffs.
 PREGAME SHOW xi

By and large, a team built on depth is better than a team The strongest indicator of how a college football team will
built on stars and scrubs. perform in the upcoming season is their performance in
Connected to the previous statement, because teams need to recent seasons.
go into the season expecting that they will suffer an average It may seem strange because graduation enforces constant
number of injuries no matter how healthy they were the previ- player turnover, but college football teams are actually much
ous year. You cannot concentrate your salaries on a handful of more consistent from year to year than NFL teams. Thanks in
star players because there is no such thing as avoiding injuries large part to consistency in recruiting, teams can be expected
in the NFL. The game is too fast and the players too strong to to play within a reasonable range of their baseline program
build a team based around the idea that “if we can avoid all expectations each season. Our Program F+ ratings, which rep-
injuries this year, we’ll win.” resent a rolling five-year period of play-by-play and drive ef-
ficiency data, have an extremely strong (.76) correlation with
Running backs usually decline after age 28, tight ends af- the next year’s F+ rating.
ter age 29, wide receivers after age 30, and quarterbacks
after age 32. Championship teams are generally defined by their abil-
This research was originally done by Doug Drinen (former ity to dominate inferior opponents, not their ability to win
editor of Pro Football Reference) in 2000. A few players have close games.
had huge seasons above these general age limits, particularly Football games are often decided by just one or two plays: a
at the quarterback position, but the peak ages Drinen found missed field goal, a bouncing fumble, the subjective spot of an
still apply to the majority of players. official on fourth-and-1. One missed assignment by a corner-
As for “non-skill players,” research we did in 2007 for back or one slightly askew pass that bounces off a receiver’s
ESPN The Magazine suggested that defensive ends and defen- hands and into those of a defensive back 5 yards away and the
sive backs generally begin to decline after age 29, linebackers game could be over. In a blowout, however, one lucky bounce
and offensive linemen after age 30, and defensive tackles after isn’t going to change things. Championship teams—in both
age 31. However, because we still have so few statistics to use professional and college football—typically beat their good op-
to study linemen and defensive players, this research should ponents convincingly and destroy the cupcakes on the schedule.
not be considered definitive.
Aaron Schatz
 Statistical Toolbox
A fter 19 years of Football Outsiders, some of our readers
are as comfortable with DVOA and ALY as they are with
touchdowns and tackles. Yet to most fans, including our new-
and the goal line as 61 times more important than all the other
yards on the field (each yard worth 0.1 points, a touchdown
worth 6.0). Let’s say DeAndre Hopkins catches a pass on
er readers, it still looks like a lot of alphabet soup. That’s what third-and-15 and goes 50 yards but gets tackled 2 yards from
this chapter is for. The next few pages define and explain all the goal line, and then James Conner takes the ball on first-
of all the unique NFL statistics you’ll find in this book: how and-goal from the 2-yard line and plunges in for the score.
we calculate them, what the numbers mean, and what they Has Conner done something special? Not really. When an of-
tell us about why teams win or lose football games. We’ll go fense gets the ball on first-and-goal at the 2-yard line, they are
through the information in each of the tables that appear in going to score a touchdown five out of six times. Conner is
each team chapter, pointing out whether those stats come from getting credit for the work done by the passing game.
advanced mathematical manipulation of the standard play-by- Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points
play or tracking what we see on video with Sports Info Solu- and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted
tions game charting. This chapter covers NFL statistics only. Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of
College metrics such as FEI are explained in the introduction the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both to-
to the college football section on page 405. tal yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done
We’ve done our best to present these numbers in a way that by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal
makes them easy to understand. This explanation is long, so book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is
feel free to read some of it, flip around the rest of the book, considered a success if it gains 45% of needed yards; on sec-
and then come back. It will still be here. ond down, a play needs to gain 60% of needed yards; on third
or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered
success.
Defense-Adjusted Value We then expand upon that basic idea with a more compli-
cated system of “success points,” improved over the past four
Over Average (DVOA) years with a lot of mathematics and a bit of trial and error. A
One running back runs for 3 yards. Another running back successful play is worth one point, an unsuccessful play zero
runs for 3 yards. Which is the better run? points with fractional points in between (for example, 8 yards
This sounds like a stupid question, but it isn’t. In fact, this on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 “success points”). Extra points
question is at the heart of nearly all of the analysis in this are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points
book. for 10 yards (assuming those yards result in a first down), four
Several factors can differentiate one 3-yard run from anoth- points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. Los-
er. What is the down and distance? Is it third-and-2, or second- ing three or more yards is -1 point. Interceptions average -6
and-15? Where on the field is the ball? Does the player get points, with an adjustment for the length of the pass and the
only 3 yards because he hits the goal line and scores? Is the location of the interception (since an interception tipped at the
player’s team up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and line is more likely to produce a long return than an intercep-
thus running out the clock, or down by two touchdowns and tion on a 40-yard pass). A fumble is worth anywhere from -1.7
thus facing a defense that is playing purely against the pass? to -4.0 points depending on how often a fumble in that situ-
Is the running back playing against the porous defense of the ation is lost to the defense—no matter who actually recovers
Chargers, or the stalwart defense of the Ravens? the fumble. Red zone plays get a bonus: 20% for team offense,
Conventional NFL statistics value plays based solely on 5% for team defense, and 10% for individual players. There
their net yardage. The NFL determines the best players by is a bonus given for a touchdown that acknowledges that the
adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came goal line is significantly more difficult to cross than the previ-
in or how many plays it took to get them. Now, why would ous 99 yards (although this bonus is nowhere near as large as
they do that? Football has one objective—to get to the end the one used in fantasy football).
zone—and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and (Our system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden
achieving first downs. These two goals need to be balanced Game thanks to our subsequent research, which added larg-
to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance. All the er penalty for turnovers, the fractional points, and a slightly
yards in the world won’t help a team win if they all come in higher baseline for success on first down. The reason why all
6-yard chunks on third-and-10. fumbles are counted, no matter whether they are recovered
The popularity of fantasy football only exacerbates the by the offense or defense, is explained in the essay “Pregame
problem. Fans have gotten used to judging players based on Show.”)
how much they help fantasy teams win and lose, not how Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value”
much they help real teams win and lose. Typical fantasy scor- based on this system, and then that number gets compared to
ing further skews things by counting the yard between the one the average success values of plays in similar situations for
xii
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xiii

all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include portunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth
down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, down.
and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are One of the hardest parts of understanding a new statistic
always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team is interpreting its scale, or what numbers represent good per-
made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes formance or bad performance. We’ve made that easy with
to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to DVOA. For each season, ratings are normalized so that 0%
other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight represents league average. A positive DVOA represents a situ-
ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on. ation that favors the offense, while a negative DVOA repre-
Going back to our example of the 3-yard rush, if Player A sents a situation that favors the defense. This is why the best
gains 3 yards under a set of circumstances in which the aver- offenses have positive DVOA ratings (last year, Tampa Bay
age NFL running back gains only one yard, then Player A has a led the NFL at 26.7%) and the best defenses have negative
certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, DVOA ratings (with Buffalo on top at -18.0%).
if Player B gains 3 yards on a play on which, under similar The scale of offensive ratings is wider than the scale of de-
circumstances, an average NFL back gains 4 yards, that Player fensive ratings. In most years, the best and worst offenses tend
B has negative value relative to others at his position. Once we to rate around +/- 30%, while the best and worst defenses tend
make all our adjustments, we can evaluate the difference be- to rate around +/- 20%. For starting players, the scale tends to
tween this player’s rate of success and the expected success rate reach roughly +/- 40% for passing and receiving, and +/- 30%
of an average running back in the same situation (or between for rushing. As you might imagine, some players with fewer
the opposing defense and the average defense in the same situa- attempts will surpass both extremes.
tion, etc.). Add up every play by a certain team or player, divide Team DVOA totals combine offense and defense by sub-
by the total of the various baselines for success in all those situ- tracting the latter from the former because the better defenses
ations, and you get VOA, or Value Over Average. will have negative DVOA ratings. (Special teams performance
Of course, the biggest variable in football is the fact that is also added, as described later in this essay.) Certain plays
each team plays a different schedule against teams of dispa- are counted in DVOA for offense and not for defense, lead-
rate quality. By adjusting each play based on the opposing ing to separate baselines on each side of the ball. In addition,
defense’s average success in stopping that type of play over although the league ratings for offense and defense are always
the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted 0%, the league averages for passing and rushing separately
Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted are not 0%. Because passing is more efficient than rushing,
based on down and location on the field; passing plays are also the average for team passing is always positive and the aver-
adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes age for team rushing is always negative. However, ratings for
to running backs, tight ends, or wide receivers. Defenses are individual players only compare passes to other passes and
adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they runs to other runs, so the league average for individual pass-
are facing. (Yes, technically the defensive stats are “offense- ing is 0%, as are the league averages for rushing and the three
adjusted.” If it seems weird, think of the “D” in “DVOA” as separate league averages for receiving by wide receivers, tight
standing for “opponent-Dependent” or something.) ends, and running backs.
The biggest advantage of DVOA is the ability to break Some other important notes about DVOA:
teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in
a variety of situations. DVOA can be separated not only by • Scrambles count in DVOA as passing plays instead of
player, but also by down, or by week, or by distance needed rushing plays.
for a first down. This can give us a better idea of not just which • Only four penalties are included in DVOA. Two penal-
team is better, but why, and what a team has to do in order ties count as pass plays on both sides of the ball: inten-
to improve itself in the future. You will find DVOA used in tional grounding and defensive pass interference. The
this book in a lot of different ways—because it takes every other two penalties are included for offense only: false
single play into account, it can be used to measure a player starts and delay of game. Because the inclusion of these
or a team’s performance in any situation. All Pittsburgh third penalties means a group of negative plays that don’t
downs can be compared to how an average team does on third count as either passes or runs, the league averages for
down. Drew Lock and Geno Smith can each be compared to pass offense and run offense are higher than the league
how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with averages for pass defense and run defense.
a lead, or in the second half of the game. • Aborted snaps and incomplete backwards lateral pass-
Since it compares each play only to plays with similar cir- es are only penalized on offense, not rewarded on de-
cumstances, it gives a more accurate picture of how much bet- fense.
ter a team really is compared to the league as a whole. The list • Adjustments for playing from behind or with a lead in
of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more ac- the fourth quarter are different for offense and defense,
curate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because as are adjustments for the final two minutes of the first
it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more half when the offense is not near field goal range.
difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover • Offense gets a slight penalty and defense gets a slight
is worse than an incomplete pass because it eliminates the op- bonus for games indoors.
xiv STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

How well does DVOA work? Using correlation coeffi- seasons. The line that represents the value of field position is
cients, we can show that only actual points scored are better not straight, but curved, with the value of each yard increasing
than DVOA at indicating how many games a team has won as teams approach either goal line.
(Table 1) and DVOA more stable from year to year than either Our special teams ratings compare each kick or punt to
wins or points scored (Table 2). league average based on the point value of the position of the
(Correlation coefficient is a statistical tool that measures kick, catch, and return. We’ve determined a league average
how two variables are related by using a number between 1 for how far a kick goes based on the line of scrimmage for
and -1. The closer to -1 or 1, the stronger the relationship, but each kick (almost always the 35-yard line for kickoffs, vari-
the closer to 0, the weaker the relationship.) able for punts) and a league average for how far a return goes
based on both the yard line where the ball is caught and the
Table 1. Correlation of Various distance that it traveled in the air.
The kicking or punting team is rated based on net points
Stats to Wins, 2006-2020 compared to average, taking into account both the kick and
the return if there is one. Because the average return is always
Stat Offense Defense Total positive, punts that are not returnable (touchbacks, out of
Points Scored/Allowed 0.752 -0.671 0.915 bounds, fair catches, and punts downed by the coverage unit)
VOA (no opponent adjustment) 0.740 -0.562 0.892 will rate higher than punts of the same distance which are re-
DVOA 0.716 -0.501 0.872 turnable. (This is also true of touchbacks on kickoffs.) There
Yards Gained/Allowed per Play 0.528 -0.356 0.704 are also separate individual ratings for kickers and punters
Yards Gained/Allowed 0.535 -0.387 0.677 that are based on distance and whether the kick is returnable,
assuming an average return in order to judge the kicker sepa-
Table 2. Correlation of Various Stats rate from the coverage.
For the return team, the rating is based on how many points
from Year to Year, 2006-2020 the return is worth compared to average, based on the loca-
tion of the catch and the distance the ball traveled in the air.
Stat Correlation Return teams are not judged on the distance of kicks, nor are
Yardage Differential 0.467 they judged on kicks that cannot be returned. As explained
DVOA 0.458 below, blocked kicks are so rare as to be statistically insignifi-
Point Differential 0.426 cant as predictors for future performance and are thus ignored.
Pythagorean Wins 0.416 For the kicking team they simply count as missed field goals,
Yards per Play Differential 0.407 for the defense they are gathered with their opponents’ other
Wins 0.344 missed field goals in Hidden value (also explained below).
Field goal kicking is measured differently. Measuring kick-
ers by field goal percentage is a bit absurd, as it assumes that
Special Teams all field goals are of equal difficulty. In our metric, each field
The problem with a system based on measuring both yardage goal is compared to the average number of points scored on all
and yardage towards a first down is what to do with plays that field goal attempts from that distance over the past 15 years.
don’t have the possibility of a first down. Special teams are an The value of a field goal increases as distance from the goal
important part of football and we needed a way to add that per- line increases. Kickoffs, punts, and field goals are then ad-
formance to the team DVOA rankings. Our special teams met- justed based on weather and altitude. It will surprise no one to
ric includes five separate measurements: field goals and extra learn that it is easier to kick the ball in Denver or a dome than
points, net punting, punt returns, net kickoffs, and kick returns. it is to kick the ball in Buffalo in December. Because we do
The foundation of most of these special teams ratings is not yet have enough data to tailor our adjustments specifically
the concept that each yard line has a different expected points to each stadium, each one is assigned to one of four catego-
value based on the likelihood of scoring from that position on ries: Cold, Warm, Dome, and Denver. There is also an addi-
the field. In Hidden Game, the authors suggested that the each tional adjustment dropping the value of field goals in Florida
additional yard for the offense had equal value, with a team’s (because the warm temperatures allow the ball to carry better).
own goal line being worth -2 points, the 50-yard line 2 points, The baselines for special teams are adjusted in each year
and the opposing goal line 6 points. (-2 points is not only the for rule changes such as the introduction of the special teams-
value of a safety, but also reflects the fact that when a team only “k-ball” in 1999, movement of the kickoff line, and the
is backed up in its own territory, it is likely that its drive will 2016 change in kickoff touchbacks. Baselines have also been
stall, forcing a punt that will give the ball to the other team in adjusted each year to make up for the gradual improvement of
good field position. Thus, the negative point value reflects the kickers over the last two decades.
fact that the defense is more likely to score next.) Our studies Once we’ve totaled how many points above or below av-
have updated this concept to reflect the actual likelihood that erage can be attributed to special teams, we translate those
the offense or defense will have the next score from a given points into DVOA so the ratings can be added to offense and
position on the field based on actual results from the past few defense to get total team DVOA.
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xv

There are three aspects of special teams that have an impact in the NFL is a starter because he is better than the alterna-
on wins and losses, but don’t show up in the standard special tive. Those 250 plays will typically be given to a significantly
teams rating because a team has little or no influence on them. worse player, someone who is the backup because he doesn’t
The first is the length of kickoffs by the opposing team, with have as much experience and/or talent. A player’s true value
an asterisk. Obviously, there are no defenders standing on the can then be measured by the level of performance he provides
35-yard line, ready to block a kickoff after the whistle blows. above that replacement level baseline, totaled over all of his
However, over the past few years, some teams have deliber- run or pass attempts.
ately kicked short in order to avoid certain top return men, Of course, the real replacement player is different for each
such as Devin Hester and Cordarrelle Patterson. Therefore, team in the NFL. Last year, the player who is nominally
the special teams formula includes adjustments to give teams the backup in Dallas (Tony Pollard) ended up with a higher
extra credit for field position on kick returns if kickers are DVOA than starter Ezekiel Elliott. Sometimes a player such
deliberately trying to avoid a return. as Raheem Mostert will be cut by one team and turn into a
The other two items that special teams have little control star for another. On other teams, the drop from the starter
over are field goals against your team, and punt distance to the backup can be even greater than the general drop to
against your team. Research shows no indication that teams replacement level. (The 2011 Indianapolis Colts will be the
can influence the accuracy or strength of field goal kickers hallmark example of this until the end of time.) The choice to
and punters, except for blocks. As mentioned above, although start an inferior player or to employ a sub-replacement level
blocked field goals and punts are definitely skillful plays, they backup, however, falls to the team, not the starter being evalu-
are so rare that they have no correlation to how well teams ated. Thus we generalize replacement level for the league as a
have played in the past or will play in the future, thus they are whole as the ultimate goal is to evaluate players independent
included here as if they were any other missed field goal or of the quality of their teammates.
botched punt, giving the defense no additional credit for their Our estimates of replacement level are computed differ-
efforts. The value of these three elements is listed separately ently for each position. For quarterbacks, we analyzed situ-
as “Hidden” value. ations where two or more quarterbacks had played meaning-
Special teams ratings also do not include two-point conver- ful snaps for a team in the same season, then compared the
sions or onside kick attempts, both of which, like blocks, are overall DVOA of the original starters to the overall DVOA
so infrequent as to be statistically insignificant in judging fu- of the replacements. We did not include situations where the
ture performance. backup was actually a top prospect waiting his turn on the
bench, since a first-round pick is by no means a “replacement-
level” player.
Defense-Adjusted Yards At other positions, there is no easy way to separate players
into “starters” and “replacements,” since unlike at quarterback,
Above Replacement (DYAR) being the starter doesn’t make you the only guy who gets in
DVOA is a good stat, but of course it is not a perfect one. the game. Instead, we used a simpler method, ranking players
One problem is that DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or at each position in each season by attempts. The players who
rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of made up the final 10% of passes or runs were split out as “re-
having a player producing at a league-average level over the placement players” and then compared to the players making
course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, up the other 90% of plays at that position. This took care of the
an average level of performance is better than that provided fact that not every non-starter is a freely available talent.
by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of As noted earlier, the challenge of any new stat is to pres-
performance while carrying a heavy workload is very valu- ent it on a scale that’s meaningful to those attempting to use
able indeed. In addition, a player who is involved in a high it. Saying that Justin Herbert’s passes were worth 281 suc-
number of plays can draw the defense’s attention away from cess value points over replacement in 2021 has very little
other parts of the offense, and, if that player is a running back, value without a context to tell us if 281 is good total or a
he can take time off the clock with repeated runs. bad one. Therefore, we translate these success values into a
Let’s say you have a running back who carries the ball 250 number called “Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement,
times in a season. What would happen if you were to remove or DYAR. Thus, Herbert was fifth among quarterbacks with
this player from his team’s offense? What would happen to 1,341 passing DYAR. It is our estimate that a generic replace-
those 250 plays? Those plays don’t disappear with the player, ment-level quarterback, throwing in the same situations as
though some might be lost to the defense because of the asso- Herbert, would have been worth 1,341 fewer yards. Note
ciated loss of first downs. Rather those plays would have to be that this doesn’t mean the replacement level quarterback
distributed among the remaining players in the offense, with would have gained exactly 1,341 fewer yards. First downs,
the bulk of them being given to a replacement running back. touchdowns, and turnovers all have an estimated yardage
This is where we arrive at the concept of replacement level, value in this system, so what we are saying is that a generic
borrowed from our friends at Baseball Prospectus. When a replacement-level quarterback would have fewer yards and
player is removed from an offense, he is usually not replaced touchdowns (and more turnovers) that would total up to be
by a player of similar ability. Nearly every starting player equivalent to the value of 1,341 yards.
xvi STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

Problems with DVOA and DYAR Pythagorean wins are useful as a predictor of year-to-year
Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game
work of two or more teammates—in fact, usually 11 team- more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the fol-
mates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes lowing year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less
to individual player ratings, we are still far from the point at than their Pythagorean projection tend to improve the follow-
which we can determine the value of a player independent ing year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite
from the performance of his teammates. That means that when their underachieving. The New England Patriots had the worst
we say, “In 2021, Aaron Jones had rushing DVOA of 9.9%,” Pythagorean luck in 2021, going 10-7 despite 12.6 Pythago-
what we really are saying is, “In 2021, Aaron Jones, playing rean wins. Buffalo and Seattle also underperformed their Py-
in Matt LaFleur’s offensive system with the Green Bay offen- thagorean expectations by more than two wins apiece.
sive line blocking for him and Aaron Rodgers selling the fake On the other side, the Las Vegas Raiders went 10-7 despite
when necessary, had a DVOA of 9.9%.” having only 6.8 Pythagorean wins. The Raiders were out-
DVOA is limited by what’s included in the official NFL scored 439-374 during the regular season and end up ranking
play-by-play or tracked by our game charting partners (ex- 12th in Pythagorean luck among teams since the 1970 merger.
plained below). Because we need to have the entire play-by- Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Green Bay also outperformed their
play of a season in order to compute DVOA and DYAR, these Pythagorean expectations by more than two wins apiece.
metrics are not yet ready to compare players of today to play-
ers throughout the league’s entire history. However, we’ve
made a lot of progress over the years in processing old seasons Adjusted Line Yards
of play-by-play to create DVOA. When we wrote our first One of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in
book, we only had DVOA for the years 1998 through 2004. football is isolating the degree to which each of the 22 men
Over time that has expanded to include 41 seasons, from 1981 on the field is responsible for the result of a given play. No-
through 2021. where is this as significant as the running game, in which one
In addition, because we need to turn around DVOA and player runs while up to nine other players—including not
DYAR quickly during the season before charting can be com- just linemen but also wideouts and tight ends—block in dif-
pleted, we do not have charting data such as dropped passes ferent directions. None of the statistics we use for measuring
incorporated into these advanced metrics. rushing—yards, touchdowns, yards per carry—differentiate
between the contribution of the running back and the contri-
bution of the offensive line. Neither do our advanced metrics
Pythagorean Projection DVOA and DYAR.
The Pythagorean projection is an approximation of each We do, however, have enough play-by-play data amassed
team’s wins based solely on their points scored and allowed. that we can try to separate the effect that the running back has
This basic concept was introduced by baseball analyst Bill on a particular play from the effects of the offensive line (and
James, who discovered that the record of a baseball team other offensive blockers) and the opposing defense. A team
could be very closely approximated by taking the square of might have two running backs in its stable: RB A, who aver-
team runs scored and dividing it by the sum of the squares of ages 3.0 yards per carry, and RB B, who averages 3.5 yards
team runs scored and allowed. Statistician Daryl Morey, now per carry. Who is the better back? Imagine that RB A doesn’t
president of basketball operations of the Philadelphia 76ers, just average 3.0 yards per carry, but gets exactly 3 yards on
later extended this theorem to professional football, refining every single carry, while RB B has a highly variable yardage
the exponent to 2.37 rather than 2. output: sometimes 5 yards, sometimes -2 yards, sometimes 20
The problem with that exponent is the same problem we’ve yards. The difference in variability between the runners can
had with DVOA in recent years: the changing offensive levels be exploited not only to determine the difference between the
in the NFL. 2.37 worked great based on the league 30 years runners, but the effect the offensive line has on every running
ago, but in the current NFL it ends up slightly underproject- play.
ing teams that play high-scoring games. The most accurate At some point in every long running play, the running back
method is actually to adjust the exponent based on the scor- passes all of his offensive line blocks as well as additional
ing environment of each individual team. Kansas City games blocking backs or receivers. From there on, the rest of the play
have a lot of points. Pittsburgh games feature fewer points. is dependent on the runner’s own speed and elusiveness and
This became known as Pythagenport when Clay Davenport the speed and tackling ability of the opposing defense. If Nick
of Baseball Prospectus started doing it with baseball teams. In Chubb breaks through the line for 50 yards, avoiding tacklers
the middle of the 2011 season, we switched our measurement all the way to the goal line, his offensive line has done a great
of Pythagorean wins to a Pythagenport-style equation, modi- job—but they aren’t responsible for the majority of the yards
fied for the NFL.1 The improvement is slight, but noticeable gained. The trick is figuring out exactly how much they are
due to the high-scoring teams that have dominated the last responsible for.
few years. For each running back carry, we calculated the probability

1
The equation, for those curious, is 1.5 x log ((PF+PA)/G).
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xvii

that the back involved would run for the specific yardage on others with similar yards-per-carry averages will consistently
that play based on that back’s average yardage per carry and gain 5 yards on first down, or as many yards as necessary on
the variability of their yardage from play to play. We also cal- third down. This statistic helps us differentiate between the
culated the probability that the offense would get the yardage two.
based on the team’s rushing average and variability using all Since success rate compares rush attempts to other rush
backs other than the one involved in the given play, and the attempts, without consideration of passing, the standard for
probability that the defense would give up the specific amount success on first down is slightly lower than those described
of yardage based on its average rushing yards allowed per above for DVOA. In addition, the standard for success chang-
carry and variability. es slightly in the fourth quarter when running backs are used
A regression analysis breaks the value for rushing yardage to run out the clock. A team with the lead is satisfied with a
into the following categories: losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, shorter run as long as it stays in bounds. Conversely, for a
and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more re- team down by a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter, 4
sponsible for lost yardage than it is for positive gains up to 4 yards on first down isn’t going to be a big help.
yards, but 50% less responsible for additional yardage gained The formula for running back success rate is as follows:
between 5 and 10 yards, and not at all responsible for addi-
tional yardage past 10 yards. • A successful play must gain 40% of needed yards on
By applying those percentages to every running back carry, first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and
we were able to create adjusted line yards (ALY), a statistic 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.
that measured offensive line performance. (We don’t include • If the offense is behind by more than a touchdown
carries by receivers, which are usually based on deception in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%,
rather than straight blocking, or carries by quarterbacks, al- 65%, and 100%.
though we may need to reconsider that given the recent use of • If the offense is ahead by any amount in the fourth quar-
the read option in the NFL.) Those numbers are then adjusted ter, the benchmarks switch to 30%, 50%, and 100%.
based on down, distance, situation, opponent and whether or
not a team is in the shotgun. (Because defenses are generally The league-average success rate in 2021 was 49.9%. Suc-
playing pass when the quarterback is in shotgun, the average cess Rate is not adjusted based on defenses faced and is not
running back carry from shotgun usually gains roughly 0.25 calculated for quarterbacks and wide receivers who occasion-
yards more per carry than other carries. Last year, the numbers ally carry the ball. Note gain that our calculation of success
were much closer than usual: 4.29 yards per carry for runs rate for running backs is different from the success rate we use
from shotgun compared to 4.22 yards for other carries.) The as a basis for DVOA, and other success rate calculations you
adjusted numbers are then normalized so that the league aver- may find across the Internet.
age for adjusted line yards per carry is the same as the league
average for RB yards per carry. Adjusted line yards numbers
are normalized differently in each season, so that normaliza- Approximate Value
tion is based on that year’s average for RB yards per carry Approximate Value is a system created by Doug Drinen of
rather than a historical average. Pro Football Reference. The goal is to put a single number on
The NFL distinguishes between runs made to seven different every season of every NFL player since 1960, using a very
locations on the line: left/right end, left/right tackle, left/right broad set of guidelines. The goal is not to make judgments
guard, and middle. Further research showed no statistically on individual seasons, but rather to have a format for study-
significant difference between how well a team performed on ing groups of seasons that is more accurate than measuring
runs listed as having gone up the middle or past a guard, so players with a very broad brush such as “games started” or
we separated runs into just five different directions (left/right “number of Pro Bowls.” Skill players are rated primarily us-
end, left/right tackle, and middle). Note that there may not be ing basic stats, while offensive linemen and defensive players
a statistically significant difference between right tackle and are rated in large part based on team performance as well as
middle/guard either but pending further research (and for the individual accolades and games started. Advanced stats from
sake of symmetry) we still list runs behind the right tackle Football Outsiders play-by-play breakdown are not part of
separately. These splits allow us to evaluate subsections of a this system. It is obviously imperfect—”approximate” is right
team’s offensive line, but not necessarily individual linesmen, there in the name—but it’s valuable for studying groups of
as we can’t account for blocking assignments or guards who draft picks, groups of players by age, and so on. The system
pull towards the opposite side of the line after the snap. is introduced and explained at https://www.pro-football-refer-
ence.com/blog/index37a8.html

Success Rate
Success rate is a statistic for running backs that measures Expected Points Added
how consistently they achieve the yardage necessary for a Expected Points Added (EPA) seeks to measure the value of
play to be deemed successful. Some running backs will mix individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating
a few long runs with a lot of failed runs of 1 or 2 yards, while the expected average next score before and after each play
xviii STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

based on a number of variables including down, distance, field jections for Denver players was a bit awkward for a while.
position, and remaining timeouts. This is similar to the system To clear up a common misconception among our readers, KU-
of expected points that underlies our special teams methodol- BIAK projects individual player performances only, not teams.
ogy. A freely available model for EPA has become popular in Please note that the KUBIAK projections in this book were
football analysis on the Internet over the last couple seasons, produced prior to the trade of Baker Mayfield to Carolina, ex-
and that model is used a few places in this book. cept for the projection for Mayfield himself.

KUBIAK Projection System 2022 Win Projection System

“Skill position” players whom we expect to play a role this In this book, each of the 32 NFL teams receives a 2022
season receive a projection of their standard 2022 NFL statistics Mean Projection at the beginning of its chapter. These pro-
using the KUBIAK projection system, designed by Scott Spratt. jections stem from three equations that forecast 2022 DVOA
The new KUBIAK combines two things: for offense, defense, and special teams based on a number of
different factors. The system starts by considering the team’s
• Projected player efficiencies based on their regressed DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate
per-play production from recent seasons and that of projection for the starting quarterback. We also incorporate a
players with similar roles and combine measurements; measure that’s based on the net personnel change in DYAR
and among non-quarterbacks (for offense) and the net change in
• Workload projections based on team and player ten- Approximate Value above replacement level (for defense).
dencies and the anticipated effect of projected team Other factors include coaching experience, recent draft his-
qualities on their teams’ run-pass ratios. tory, certain players returning from injury, and combined ten-
ure on the offensive line.
KUBIAK then adjusts those projections for expected team These three equations produce precise numbers represent-
context each week, capturing the typical changes players ing the most likely outcome, but also produce a range of pos-
in similar roles see because of factors including the venue, sibilities, used to determine the probability of each possible
weather, and opponent. These preseason projections are an ex- offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA for each team.
tension of the weekly fantasy projections available as part of This is particularly important when projecting football teams,
our premium FO+ package on FootballOutsiders.com.2 The because with only 17 games in a season, a team’s performance
KUBIAK system accounts each week for the possibility of may vary wildly from its actual talent level due to a couple of
injuries, and therefore overall projections are less than what random bounces of the ball or badly timed injuries. In addi-
we would expect from playing a full season. The exception tion, the economic structure of the NFL allows teams to make
comes in the Quarterbacks chapter, where each quarterback sudden jumps or drops in overall ability more often than in
is still given a 17-game projection to help readers understand other sports.
the expectations if circumstances force a backup quarterback Football Outsiders Almanac 2022 features a new projection
to start for an extended period. system that has been rebuilt and improved using data from the
Each player with a KUBIAK projection also comes with a years 2009 to 2021. Both offensive and defensive projections
Risk variable for fantasy football, which measures the likeli- were reworked.
hood of the player hitting his projection. The default rating for The next step in our forecast involves simulating the season
each player is Green. As the risk of a player failing to hit his one million times. We use the projected range of DVOA pos-
projection rises, he’s given a rating of Yellow or, in the worst sibilities to produce 1,000 different simulated seasons with 32
cases, Red. The Risk variable is based not only on age and in- sets of DVOA ratings. We then plug those season-long DVOA
jury probability, but also how a player’s projection compares ratings into the same equation we use during the season to
to his recent performance as well as our confidence (or lack determine each team’s likely remaining wins for our Playoff
thereof) in his offensive teammates. A few players with the Odds Report. The simulation takes each season game-by-
strongest chances of surpassing their projections are given a game, determining the home or road team’s chance of winning
Blue rating. Most players marked Blue will be backups with each game based on the DVOA ratings of each team as well
low projections, but a handful are starters or situational play- as home-field advantage. A random number between 0 and
ers who can be considered slightly better breakout candidates. 100 determines whether the home or road team has won that
When we named our system KUBIAK, it was a play on the game. We ran 1,000 simulations with each of the 1,000 sets of
PECOTA system used by our partners at Baseball Prospec- DVOA ratings, creating a million different simulations. The
tus—if they were going to name their system after a long-time simulation was programmed by Mike Harris.
eighties backup, we would name our system after a long-time We use a system we call a “dynamic simulation” to better
eighties backup. Little did we know that Gary Kubiak would approximate the true distribution of wins in the NFL. When
finally get a head coaching job the very next season. After some simulating the season, each team had 2.0% DVOA added or
debate, we decided to keep the name, although discussing pro- subtracted after a win or loss, reflecting the fact that a win or

2
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/subscribe
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xix

loss tends to tell us whether a team is truly better or worse terback without being blocked. Therefore, the goal of game
than whatever their mean projection had been before the sea- charting from both ESPN Stats & Info and Sports Info Solu-
son. Using this method, a team projected with 20.0% DVOA tions is not to “grade” players, but rather to attempt to mark
which goes 13-4 will have a 38.0% DVOA entering the play- specific events: a pass pressure, a blown block, a dropped in-
offs, which is much more realistic. This change gave us more terception, and so on.
projected seasons at the margins, with fewer seasons at 8-9 or We emphasize that all data from game charting is unofficial.
9-8 and more seasons at 14-3 or 3-14. The dynamic simula- Other sources for football statistics may keep their own mea-
tion also meant a slight increase in projected wins for the best surements of yards after catch or how teams perform against
teams, and a slight decrease for the worst teams. However, the blitz. Our data will not necessarily match theirs. Even
the conservative nature of our projection system still means ESPN Stats & Info and Sports Info Solutions have a num-
the distribution of mean projected wins has a much smaller ber of disagreements, marking different events on the same
spread than the actual win-loss records we will see by the end play because it can be difficult to determine the definition of
of December. We will continue to experiment with changes to a “pressure” or a “dropped pass.” However, any other group
the simulation in order to produce the most accurate possible that is publicly tracking this data is also working off the same
forecast of the NFL season in future years. footage, and thus will run into the same issues of difficulty
and subjectivity.
There are lots of things we would like to do with all-22
Game Charting Data film that we simply haven’t been able to do yet, such as chart-
Each of the formulas listed above relies primarily on the ing coverage by cornerbacks when they aren’t the target of a
play-by-play data published by the NFL. When we began to given pass, or even when pass pressure prevents the pass from
analyze the NFL, this was all that we had to work with. Just getting into the air. Unfortunately, we are limited by what our
as a television broadcast has a color commentator who gives partners are able to chart given time constraints.
more detail to the facts related by the play-by-play announcer, In the description of data below, we have tried to designate
so too do we need some color commentary to provide con- which data from 2021 comes from ESPN Stats & Info group
textual information that breathes life into these plain lines of (ESPN S&I), which data comes from Sports Info Solutions
numbers and text. We added this color commentary with game (SIS), and where we have combined data from both compa-
charting. nies with our own analysis.
Beginning in 2005, Football Outsiders began using a num-
ber of volunteers to chart every single play of every regular- Formation/Personnel
season and postseason NFL game. To put it into perspective, For each play, we have the number of running backs, wide
there were over 54,000 lines of play-by-play information in receivers, and tight ends on the field courtesy of SIS. Players
each NFL season and our goal is to add several layers of detail were marked based on their designation on the roster, not based
to nearly all of them. on where they lined up on the field. Obviously, this could be
It gradually became clear that attempting to chart so much difficult with some hybrid players or players changing posi-
football with a crew of volunteers was simply not feasible, tions in 2021, but we did our best to keep things as consistent
especially given our financial resources compared to those of as possible. SIS also marks when a team uses six (or seven)
our competitors. Over the past few years, we have partnered offensive linemen, and they mark the backfield formation as
with larger companies to take on the responsibilities of game empty back, single back, I formation, offset I, split backs, full
charting so that we can devote more time to analysis. house, or “other.” These notations of backfield formation were
In 2015, Football Outsiders reached an agreement with recorded directly before the snap and do not account for posi-
Sports Info Solutions to begin a large charting project that tions before pre-snap motion. The exception comes when a
would replace our use of volunteers. We also have a part- running back motions out of the backfield before the snap but
nership with ESPN Stats & Info and use their data to check does not set in a receiver position; we count that player as be-
against the data collected by Sports Info Solutions. All chart- ing in the backfield, not on the line of scrimmage.
ing data for the 2021 season is provided by one of these two SIS then marked defensive formations by listing the num-
companies. ber of linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs. There will
Game charting is significantly easier now that the NFL be mistakes—a box safety may occasionally be confused for
makes coaches’ film available through NFL Game Pass. This a linebacker, for example—but for the most part the data for
tape, which was not publicly available when we began chart- defensive backs will be accurate. Figuring out how to mark
ing with volunteers in 2005, includes sideline and end zone whether a player is a defensive end or a linebacker is a dif-
perspectives for each play, and shows all 22 players at all ferent story. The rise of hybrid defenses has led to a lot of
times, making it easier to see the cause-and-effect of certain confusion. Edge rushers in a 4-3 defense may play standing
actions taken on the field. Nonetheless, all game charting is up because they used to play for a 3-4 defense and that’s what
still imperfect. You often cannot tell which players did their they are used to. A player who is usually considered an outside
jobs particularly well or made mistakes without knowing the linebacker for a 3-4 defense may put his hand on the ground
play call and each player’s assignment, particularly when it on third down (thus looking like a 4-3 defensive end), but the
comes to zone coverage or pass-rushers who reach the quar- tackle next to him is still two-gapping (which is generally a
xx STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

3-4 principle). SIS marked personnel in a simplified fashion do not count how far the quarterback was behind the line or
by designating any front seven player in a standing position horizontal yardage if the quarterback threw across the field.
as a linebacker and designating any front seven player in a All touchdowns are counted to the goal line, so that distance
crouching position as a defensive lineman. in the air added to yards after catch always equals the official
We also have data from SIS on where receivers lined up yardage total kept by the league.
before each of their pass targets (wide, slot, tight, or backfield)
and what routes they ran, as well as the play design on running Incomplete Passes
plays. Quarterbacks are evaluated based on their ability to com-
plete passes. However, not all incompletes should have the
Rushers and Blockers same weight. Throwing a ball away to avoid a sack is actually
ESPN Stats & Info provided us with two data points regard- a valuable incomplete, and a receiver dropping an otherwise
ing the pass rush: the number of pass-rushers on a given play, quality pass is hardly a reflection on the quarterback.
and the number defensive backs blitzing on a given play. SIS Our evaluation of incomplete passes began with ESPN
also tracked this data for comparison purposes and then added Stats & Info, which marked passes as Overthrown, Under-
a count of blockers. Counting blockers is an art as much as a thrown, Thrown Away, Batted Down at the Line, Defensed,
science. Offenses base their blocking schemes on how many or Dropped. We then compared this data to similar data from
rushers they expect. A running back or tight end’s assign- SIS and made some changes. We also changed some plays to
ment may depend on how many pass-rushers cross the line reflect a couple of additional categories we have kept in past
at the snap. Therefore, an offensive player was deemed to be years for Football Outsiders: Hit in Motion (indicating the
a blocker if he engaged in an actual block, or there was some quarterback was hit as his arm was coming forward to make a
hesitation before running a route. A running back that imme- pass), Caught Out of Bounds, and Hail Mary.
diately heads out into the flat is not a blocker, but one that ESPN S&I and SIS also marked when a defender dropped
waits to verify that the blocking scheme is working and then an interception. When a play is close, we tend to err on the
goes out to the flat would, in fact, be considered a blocker. side of not marking a dropped interception, as we don’t want
to blame a defender who, for example, jumps high for a ball
Pass Play Details and has it tip off his fingers. We also counted a few “defensed”
Both companies recorded the following data for all pass interceptions, when a quarterback threw a pass that would
plays: have been picked off if not for the receiver playing defense
on the ball. These passes counted as dropped interceptions for
• Did the play begin with a play-action fake, including quarterbacks but not for the defensive players.
read-option fakes that developed into pass plays in-
stead of being handed to a running back? Defenders
• Was the quarterback in or out of the pocket? The NFL play-by-play lists tackles and, occasionally, tipped
• Was the quarterback under pressure in making his pass? balls, but it does not definitively list the defender on the play.
• Was this a screen pass? SIS charters attempted to determine which defender was pri-
marily responsible for covering either the receiver at the time
SIS game charting also marks the name of the defender who of the throw or the location to which the pass was thrown,
caused the pass pressure. Charters were allowed to list two regardless of whether the pass was complete or not.
names if necessary, and could also attribute a hurry to “overall Every defense in the league plays zone coverage at times,
pressure.” No defender was given a hurry and a sack on the some more than others, which leaves us with the question of
same play, but defenders were given hurries if they helped how to handle plays without a clear man assigned to that re-
force a quarterback into a sack that was finished by another ceiver. Charters (SIS employees from 2015 to 2022, and FO
player. SIS also identified which defender(s) caused the pass volunteers in previous seasons) had three alternatives:
pressure which forced a quarterback to scramble for yardage.
If the quarterback wasn’t under pressure but ran anyway, the • We asked charters to mark passes that found the holes
play could be marked either as “coverage scramble” (if the in zone coverage as Hole in Zone, rather than straining
quarterback ran because there were no open receivers) or to assign that pass to an individual defender. We asked
“hole opens up” (if the quarterback ran because he knew he the charter to also note the player who appeared to be
could gain significant yardage). All pressure data in this book responsible for that zone, and these defenders are as-
is based on SIS data. signed half credit for those passes. Some holes were
Some places in this book, we divide pass yardage into two so large that no defender could be listed along with the
numbers: distance in the air and yards after catch. This infor- Hole in Zone designation.
mation is tracked by the NFL, but the official scorers often • Charters were free to list two defenders instead of one.
make errors, so we corrected the original data based on input This could be used for actual double coverage, or for
from both ESPN S&I and SIS. Distance in the air is based on zone coverage in which the receiver was right between
the distance from the line of scrimmage to the place where the two close defenders rather than sitting in a gaping hole.
receiver either caught or was supposed to catch the pass. We When two defenders are listed, ratings assign each with
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xxi

half credit. thagorean Wins gives the approximate number of wins ex-
• Screen passes and dumpoffs are marked as Uncovered pected last year based on this team’s raw totals of points scored
unless a defender (normally a linebacker) is obviously and allowed, along with their NFL rank. Snap-Weighted Age
shadowing that specific receiver on the other side of the gives the average age of the team in 2021, weighted based on
line of scrimmage. how many snaps each player was on the field and ranked from
oldest (Tampa Bay, first at 27.6) to youngest (Detroit, 32nd at
Since we began the charting project in 2005, nothing has 25.3). Average Opponent gives a ranking of last year’s sched-
changed our analysis more than this information on pass cov- ule strength based on the average DVOA of all 16 opponents
erage. However, even now with the ability to view all-22 film, faced during the regular season. Teams are ranked from the
it can be difficult to identify the responsible defender except hardest schedule of 2021 (Washington) to the easiest (Buffalo).
when there is strict man-to-man coverage. Total DVOA gives the team’s total DVOA rating, with rank.
Offense, Defense, and Special Teams list the team’s DVOA
Additional Details rating in each category, along with NFL rank. Remember that
All draw plays were marked, whether by halfbacks or quar- good offenses and special teams have positive DVOA num-
terbacks. Option runs and zone reads were also marked. bers, while a negative DVOA means better defense, so the
Both SIS and ESPN S&I when the formation was pistol as lowest defensive DVOA is ranked No. 1 (last year, Buffalo).
opposed to shotgun; the official play-by-play simply marks 2022 Mean Projection gives the average number of wins
these plays all as shotgun. for this team based on the 2021 Win Projection System de-
Both SIS and ESPN S&I track yards after contact for each scribed earlier in this chapter. Please note that we do not ex-
play. pect any teams to win the exact number of games in their mean
SIS marks when a play uses pre-snap motion and when the projection. First of all, no team can win 0.8 of a game. Second,
play design is a run-pass option (RPO). because these projections represent a whole range of possible
SIS charters marked each quarterback sack with one of the values, the averages naturally tend to drift towards 8.5 wins.
following terms: Blown Block, Coverage Sack, QB Fault, Obviously, we’re not expecting a season where no team goes
Failed Scramble, or Blitz/Overall Pressure. Blown Blocks 4-13 or 13-4. For a better way to look at the projections, we
were listed with the name of a specific offensive player who offer Postseason Odds, which give each team’s chance of
allowed the defender to come through. (Some blown block making the postseason based on our simulation, and Super
sacks are listed with two blockers, who each get a half-sack.) Bowl Appearance odds, which give each team’s chance of
Coverage Sack denotes when the quarterback has plenty of representing its conference in Super Bowl LVII. The average
time to throw but cannot find an open receiver. QB Fault rep- team will make the playoffs in 43.8% of simulations (now a
resents “self sacks” listed without a defender, such as when higher number due to the expansion to seven playoff teams
the quarterback drops back, only to find the ball slip out of his per conference), and the Super Bowl in 6.3% of simulations.
hands with no pass-rusher touching him. Failed Scramble rep- Projected Average Opponent gives the team’s strength of
resents plays where a quarterback began to run without major schedule for 2022. This number is based not on last year’s
pass pressure because he thought he could get a positive gain, record but on the mean projected DVOA for each opponent
only to be tackled before he passed the line of scrimmage. (now 17 opponents instead of 16). A positive schedule is
SIS tracked “broken tackles” on all runs or pass plays. We harder, a negative schedule easier. Teams are ranked from
define a “broken tackle” as one of two events: Either the ball- the hardest projected schedule (Pittsburgh, first) to the easi-
carrier escapes from the grasp of the defender, or the defender est (New England, 32nd). This strength of schedule projection
is in good position for a tackle but the ballcarrier jukes him does not take into account which games are home or away, or
out of his shoes. If the ballcarrier sped by a slow defender the timing of the bye week.
who dived and missed, that did not count as a broken tackle. The final column of the box gives the team’s chances of
If the defender couldn’t bring the ballcarrier down because he finishing in four different basic categories of success:
is being blocked out of the play by another offensive player,
this did not count as a broken tackle. It was possible to mark • On the Clock (0-5 wins; NFL average 17%)
multiple broken tackles on the same play. Broken tackles are • Mediocrity (6-8 wins; NFL average 33%)
not marked for special teams. • Playoff Contender (9-11 wins; NFL average 33%)
• Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins; NFL average 17%)

How to Read the The percentage given for each category is dependent not
only on how good we project the team to be in 2022, but the
Team Summary Box level of variation possible in that projection, and the expected
Here is a rundown of all the tables and stats that appear in performance of the teams on the schedule.
the 32 team chapters. Each team chapter begins with a box You’ll also find a table with the team’s 2022 schedule placed
in the upper-right hand corner that gives a summary of our within each chapter, along with a graph showing each team’s
statistics for that team, as follows: 2021 week-to-week performance by single-game DVOA.
2021 Record gives each team’s actual win-loss record. Py- Black dots represent wins, white dots represent losses, and the
xxii STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

shaded dot for Baltimore and Pittsburgh represents a tie. The example, the Ravens had one more turnover than Detroit in
second, dotted line on the graph represents a five-week mov- Week 3 but forced one more turnover than Denver in Week 4.
ing average of each team’s performance, in order to show a Finally, you’ll see DVOA ratings for this game: Total
longer-term view of when they were improving and declining. DVOA first, then offense (Off), defense (Def), and special
After the essays come statistical tables and comments related teams (ST). Note that these are DVOA ratings, adjusted for
to that team and its specific units. opponent, so a loss to a good team will often be listed with a
higher rating than a close win over a bad team. For example,
the Ravens have negative DVOA for their Week 11 and 12
Weekly Performance wins over Chicago and Cleveland but positive DVOA for their
The first table gives a quick look at the team’s week-to- Week 14 and 15 losses to Cleveland and Green Bay.
week performance in 2021 (Table 3). This includes the play-
offs for those teams that made the postseason, with the four
weeks of playoffs numbered 19 (wild card) through 22 (Super Trends and Splits
Bowl). All other tables in the team chapters represent regular- Next to the week-to-week performance is a table giving
season performance only unless otherwise noted. DVOA for different portions of a team’s performance, on both
According to the first line of this table, Baltimore opened the offense and defense (Table 4). Each split is listed with the
team’s rank among the 32 NFL teams. These numbers repre-
Table 3: 2021 Ravens by Week sent regular season performance only.

1
Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA
at LV L 39% 27 33
YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST
406 491 -1 -11% -7% 12% 7%
Table 4. Falcons Trends and Splits
2 KC W 28% 36 35 481 405 0 24% 35% 15% 3% Offense Rank Defense Rank
3 at DET W 84% 19 17 387 285 -1 3% -1% 7% 11% Total DVOA -17.1% 28 11.3% 30
4 at DEN W 100% 23 7 406 254 1 63% 24% -34% 5% Unadjusted VOA -18.9% 29 10.1% 29
5 IND W 40% 31 25 523 513 0 -1% 46% 46% -2% Weighted Trend -14.2% 25 8.4% 29
6 LAC W 97% 34 6 327 208 -1 59% 2% -42% 15% Variance 10.5% 26 2.6% 2
7 CIN L 3% 17 41 393 520 1 -31% -9% 27% 5% Average Opponent -2.5% 3 -2.5% 28
8 BYE
9 MIN W 17% 34 31 500 318 -2 8% 24% 3% -13% Passing -3.5% 25 20.2% 29
10 at MIA L 16% 10 22 304 350 -2 -28% -30% -5% -3% Rushing -25.5% 31 0.7% 29
11 at CHI W 28% 16 13 299 353 0 -16% -11% 11% 6%
First Down -21.4% 29 8.8% 25
12 CLE W 15% 16 10 303 262 -2 -5% -41% -21% 14%
Second Down -9.5% 23 5.0% 22
13 at PIT L 8% 19 20 326 321 -1 -34% -15% 25% 6%
Third Down -20.4% 26 25.6% 30
14 at CLE L 53% 22 24 389 290 -1 21% 12% 7% 16%
15 GB L 13% 30 31 354 346 0 2% 19% 26% 9% First Half -11.6% 24 9.4% 29
16 at CIN L 0% 21 41 334 575 -1 -66% 3% 63% -5% Second Half -23.3% 30 13.2% 29
17 LAR L 8% 19 20 327 373 1 0% -7% 6% 12%
18 PIT L 10% 13 16 381 314 -2 -22% -26% -7% -3% Red Zone 1.4% 15 20.2% 29
Late and Close 2.8% 17 12.5% 26
2021 season with a 33-27 loss at Las Vegas. A new edition to
our tables this year is Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). Total DVOA gives total offensive, and defensive DVOA in
This asks the question: based on the VOA splits of this game all situations. Unadjusted VOA represents the breakdown of
(without opponent adjustments), how often would we expect play-by-play considering situation but not opponent. A team
this team to have won the game? For example, given the VOA whose offensive DVOA is higher than its offensive VOA
splits in the Week 1 Baltimore at Las Vegas contest, we would played a harder-than-average schedule of opposing defenses;
expect Baltimore to win the game 39% of the time. The team a team with a lower defensive DVOA than defensive VOA
with the higher PGWE does not always win the game, as you player a harder-than-average schedule of opposing offenses.
can see from Baltimore’s Week 2 victory over Kansas City de- Weighted Trend lowers the importance of earlier games to
spite PGWE of just 28%. The most surprising win of 2021 by give a better idea of how the team was playing at the end of
PGWE was Seattle’s 30-23 home win over San Francisco in the regular season. The final four weeks of the season are full
Week 13, where Seattle came out with a PGWE of just 1.1%. strength; moving backwards through the season, each week
Returning to our sample table, YDF and YDA are net yards is given less and less weight until the first three weeks of the
on offense and net yards against the defense. These numbers season, which are not included at all. Variance is the same as
do not include penalty yardage or special teams yardage. TO noted above, with a higher percentage representing less con-
represents the turnover margin. Unlike other parts of the book sistency. This is true for both offense and defense: Atlanta, for
in which we consider all fumbles as equal, this only repre- example, was very consistent on defense (2.6%, second) but
sents actual turnovers: fumbles lost and interceptions. So, for inconsistent on offense (10.5%, 26th). Average Opponent is
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xxiii

that the same thing that appears in the box to open each chap- games based on how they are listed on the injury report. Unlike
ter, except split in half: the average DVOA of all opposing a count of “starter games missed,” this accounts for the fact
defenses (for offense) or the average DVOA of all opposing that a player listed as questionable who does in fact play is not
offenses (for defense). playing at 100% capability. Teams are ranked from the fewest
Passing and Rushing are fairly self-explanatory. As noted injuries (2021: Atlanta on offense, Miami on defense) to the
earlier, passing DVOA now includes quarterback scrambles. most (2021: Baltimore on offense, New York Jets on defense).
Rushing DVOA still includes designed runs by quarterbacks
as well as handoffs and broken plays.
The next three lines split out DVOA on First Down, Sec- Individual Offensive Statistics
ond Down, and Third Down. Third Down here includes fourth Each team chapter contains a table giving passing and re-
downs on which a team runs a regular offensive play instead ceiving numbers for any player who either threw five passes
of punting or attempting a field goal. First Half and Second or was thrown five passes, along with rushing numbers for any
Half represent the first two quarters and last two quarters (plus players who carried the ball at least five times. These numbers
overtime), not the first eight and last eight games of the regular also appear in the player comments at the end of the book
season. Next comes DVOA in the Red Zone, which is any of- (except for runs by wide receivers). By putting them together
fensive play starting from the defense’s 20-yard line through the in the team chapters we hope we make it easier to compare the
goal line. The final split is Late and Close, which includes any performances of different players on the same team.
play in the second half or overtime when the teams are within Players who are no longer on the team are marked with an
eight points of each other in either direction. (Eight points, of asterisk. New players who were on a different team in 2021
course, is the biggest deficit that can be made up with a single are in italics. Changes should be accurate as of July 1. Rookies
score, a touchdown and two-point conversion.) are not included.
All players are listed with DYAR and DVOA. Passing sta-
tistics then list total pass plays (Plays), net yardage (NtYds),
Five-Year Performance and net yards per pass (Avg). These numbers include not just
This table gives each team’s performance over the past five passes (and the positive yardage from them) but aborted snaps
seasons. (Table 5) It includes win-loss record, Pythagorean and sacks (and the negative yardage from them). Then comes
Wins, Estimated Wins, points scored and allowed, and turn- average yards after catch (YAC) based on charted receptions,
over margin. Estimated wins are based on a formula that esti- not total pass attempts. The final three numbers are comple-
mates how many games a team would have been expected to tion percentage (C%), passing touchdowns (TD), and inter-
win based on 2020 performance in specific situations, normal- ceptions (Int).
ized to eliminate luck (fumble recoveries, opponents’ missed It is important to note that the tables in the team chapters
field goals, etc.) and assuming average schedule strength. The contain Football Outsiders stats, while the tables in the player
formula emphasizes consistency and overall DVOA as well comments later in the book contain official NFL totals, at least
as DVOA in a few specifically important situations. The next when it comes to standard numbers like receptions and yard-
columns of this table give total DVOA along with DVOA for age. This results in a number of differences between the two:
offense, defense, and special teams, and the rank for each
among that season’s 32 NFL teams. • Net yardage for quarterbacks in the team chapter tables
The next four columns give the adjusted games lost (AGL) includes the lost yardage from sacks and intentional
for starters on both offense and defense, along with rank. (Our grounding penalties. Aborted snaps are considered as
total for starters here includes players who take over as starters run plays.
due to another injury and then get injured themselves, such as • Football Outsiders stats omit kneeldowns from run to-
Taysom Hill and Gus Edwards last year. It also includes impor- tals and clock-stopping spikes from pass totals.
tant situational players who may not necessarily start, such as • “Skill players” who played for multiple teams in 2021
pass-rush specialists and slot receivers.) Adjusted games lost are only listed in team chapters with stats from that
was introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2008; it gives a specific team; combined stats are listed in the player
weighted estimate of the probability that players would miss comments section.

Table 5. Colts Five-Year Performance

Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 4-12 4.2 4.2 263 404 +5 -23.9% 30 -18.3% 30 9.3% 27 3.7% 8 65.7 30 45.2 24 26.4 24 25.7 24 25.3 27
2018 10-6 10.3 10.0 433 344 +2 12.4% 8 7.9% 10 -3.5% 11 0.9% 12 57.0 28 51.6 28 25.8 28 25.3 28 25.7 19
2019 7-9 7.7 7.2 361 373 +2 -6.0% 20 -3.4% 19 3.0% 19 0.4% 16 38.6 16 26.7 10 26.0 28 25.6 25 25.1 29
2020 11-5 10.2 10.0 451 362 +10 14.2% 10 2.7% 12 -9.5% 7 2.0% 10 46.3 21 26.6 8 27.6 4 26.0 25 25.7 22
2021 9-8 10.7 9.8 451 365 +14 9.8% 11 4.4% 13 -4.9% 8 0.4% 14 51.7 23 44.8 21 26.9 10 26.4 17 26.4 11
xxiv STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

Table 6. Bills Passing Performance Based on Personnel

These tables provide a look at performance in 2022 based
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int on personnel packages, as defined above in the section on
J.Allen 705 4.9% 672 4210 6.3 4.2 63.5% 36 15 marking formation/personnel as part of Sports Info Solutions
M.Trubisky* -39 -89.2% 8 43 5.4 2.8 75.0% 0 1 charting. There are four different tables, representing:
C.Keenum 84 5.8% 77 433 5.6 6.5 65.3% 3 1
• Offense based on personnel
Rushing statistics start with DYAR and DVOA, then list • Offense based on opponent’s defensive personnel
rushing plays and net yards along with average yards per • Defense based on personnel
carry and rushing touchdowns. The final two columns are • Defense based on opponent’s offensive personnel
fumbles (Fum)—both those lost to the defense and those re-
covered by the offense—and Success Rate (Suc), explained Most of these tables feature the top five personnel groupings
earlier in this chapter. Fumbles listed in the rushing table for each team. Occasionally, we will list the personnel group
include all quarterback fumbles on sacks and aborted snaps, which ranks sixth if the sixth group is either particularly inter-
as well as running back fumbles on receptions, but not wide esting or nearly as common as the fifth group. Each personnel
receiver fumbles. group is listed with its frequency among 2021 plays, yards per
play, and DVOA. Offensive personnel are also listed with how
Table 7. Raiders Rushing often the team in question called a running play instead of a
pass play from given personnel. (Quarterback scrambles are
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc included as pass plays, not runs.)
J.Jacobs 28 -5.7% 217 877 4.0 9 2 54% Offensive personnel are given in the standard two-digit for-
K.Drake 23 -0.1% 63 254 4.0 2 0 46% mat where the first digit is running backs and the second digit
P.Barber* -42 -26.7% 55 212 3.9 2 2 49% is tight ends. You can figure out wide receivers by subtracting
D.Carr -54 -45.6% 30 108 3.6 0 4 - that total from five, with a couple of exceptions. Plays with
M.Mariota* 8 -3.3% 13 87 6.7 1 1 - six or seven offensive linemen will have a three-digit listing
J.Richard* -9 -32.7% 9 40 4.4 0 0 44% such as “611” or “622.” Any play with a non-quarterback tak-
A.Abdullah -20 -17.7% 51 166 3.3 0 0 43% ing a direct snap from the quarterback position was counted
B.Bolden 8 -4.1% 44 226 5.1 1 1 41% as “Wildcat.” This personnel group appears on the tables for
Chicago and Miami, listed as “WC.”
Receiving statistics start with DYAR and DVOA and then When defensive players come in to play offense, defensive
list the number of passes thrown to this receiver (Plays), the backs are counted as wide receivers and linebackers as tight
number of passes caught (Catch) and the total receiving yards ends. Defensive linemen who come in as offensive linemen
(Yds). Yards per catch (Y/C) includes total yardage per recep- are counted as offensive linemen; if they come in as blocking
tion, based on standard play-by-play, while yards after catch fullbacks, we count them as running backs. Quarterbacks who
(YAC) is based on information from our game charting proj- line up at another position are counted as wide receivers ex-
ect. Finally we list total receiving touchdowns, and catch per- cept for Taysom Hill, who was counted as a tight end in 2021.
centage (C%), which is the percentage of passes intended for We no longer give giving personnel data based on the num-
this receiver which were caught. Wide receivers, tight ends, ber of defensive linemen and linebackers. This is because of
and running backs are separated on the table by horizontal the difficulty in separating between the two, especially with
lines. our simplified designation of players as defensive linemen or
linebackers based simply on who has a hand on the ground.
Table 8. Cowboys Receiving There are just too many hybrid defensive schemes in today’s
game: 4-3 schemes where one or both ends rush the passer
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C% from a standing position, or hybrid schemes that one-gap on
C.Lamb 205 7.9% 120 79 1102 13.9 5.6 6 66% one side of the nose tackle and two-gap on the other. There-
A.Cooper* 179 8.0% 104 68 865 12.7 3.4 8 65% fore, defensive personnel is listed in only five categories:
M.Gallup 50 -3.2% 62 35 445 12.7 3.5 2 56%
C.Wilson* 154 18.6% 61 45 602 13.4 5.8 6 74% • Base (four defensive backs)
N.Brown -6 -16.0% 25 16 184 11.5 4.3 0 64% • Nickel (five defensive backs)
M.Turner* 63 37.6% 16 12 149 12.4 6.2 3 75% • Dime+ (six or more defensive backs)
J.Washington -2 -13.1% 44 24 285 11.9 3.3 2 55% • Big (either 4-4-3 or 3-5-3)
D.Schultz 190 20.3% 104 78 808 10.4 4.4 8 75% • Goal Line (all other personnel groups with fewer than
B.Jarwin* 5 -2.9% 17 11 96 8.7 3.5 2 65% four defensive backs)
S.McKeon -4 -16.3% 6 4 27 6.8 2.5 1 67%
E.Elliott 8 -11.8% 66 47 287 6.0 6.3 2 72% 11, or three-wide personnel, was by far the most common
T.Pollard 63 10.4% 46 39 337 8.6 8.7 0 85% grouping in the NFL last year, used on 59% of plays. After 11
C.Clement* 0 -14.1% 7 6 29 4.8 2.8 1 86% personnel came the standard two-tight end set 12 personnel
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xxv

(20% of plays) and the more traditional 21 personnel (6.9%). ing from both Sports Info Solutions and ESPN Stats & Infor-
Defenses lined up in Base on 23% of plays, Nickel on 61% of mation. It gives you an idea of what kind of plays teams run
plays, Dime+ on 14% of plays, and either Big or Goal Line in what situations and with what personnel. Each category is
on 1.3% of plays. Table 9 lists the average performance from given a league-wide Rank from most often (1) to least often
the ten most common personnel groups in 2021. Note that be- (32) except as noted below. The sample table shown here lists
cause we don’t track personnel grouping on penalties, those the NFL average in each category for 2020.
negative plays are all missing from this analysis, so the aver- The first column of strategic tendencies lists how often
age offensive DVOA for this table is 4.3% rather than 0.0%. teams ran in different situations. These ratios are based on the
On Table 10, which shows the same numbers from the defen- type of play, not the actual result, so quarterback scrambles
sive perspective, the average DVOA is still 0.0%. count as “passes” while quarterback sneaks, draws and option
plays count as “runs.”
Table 9. NFL Offensive Performance Runs, first half and Runs, first down should be self-ev-
ident. Runs, second-and-long is the percentage of runs on
by Personnel Group, 2021 second down with seven or more yards to go, giving you an
idea of how teams follow up a failed first down. Runs, power
Pers. Plays Pct Yds DVOA situations is the percentage of runs on third or fourth down
11 20,289 59.2% 5.8 7.7% with 1-2 yards to go, or at the goal line with 1-2 yards to go.
12 6,888 20.1% 5.2 -2.0% Runs, behind 2H tells you how often teams ran when they
21 2,380 6.9% 5.6 0.9% were behind in the second half, generally a passing situation.
13 1,126 3.3% 5.4 2.0% Pass, ahead 2H tells you how often teams passed when they
22 802 2.3% 5.0 0.4% had the lead in the second half, generally a running situation.
10 559 1.6% 6.5 17.8% In each case, you can determine the percentage of plays that
611 432 1.3% 5.1 -5.6% were passes by subtracting the run percentage from 100 (the
612 420 1.2% 4.2 -10.1% reverse being true for “Pass, ahead 2H,” of course).
01 289 0.8% 6.1 4.8% The final entry in the first column gives the percentage of
20 275 0.8% 5.2 -28.0% each offense’s plays that were coded as Run-Pass Options by
SIS charters.
The second column gives information about offensive for-
Table 10. NFL Defensive mations and personnel, as tracked by Sports Info Solutions.
The first three entries detail formation, i.e. where players
Performance by Personnel were lined up on the field. Form: Single Back lists how often
the team lined up with only one player in the backfield, Form:
Group, 2021 Empty Back lists how often the team lined up with no players
in the backfield, and Form: Multi Back lists how often the
Pers. Plays Pct Yds DVOA team lined up with two or three players in the backfield.
Nickel 21,031 61.4% 5.7 1.0% The next three entries are based on personnel, no matter
Base 8,026 23.4% 5.2 -2.7% where players were lined up in the formation. Pers: 3+ WR
Dime+ 4,762 13.9% 6.2 2.2% marks how often the team plays with three or more wide re-
Goal Line 223 0.7% 0.9 -7.4% ceivers. Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL marks how often the team plays
Big 197 0.6% 3.9 -27.1% with either more than one tight end or more than five offensive
10 Men 19 0.1% 6.9 68.5% linemen. Pers: 6+ OL marks just plays with more than five of-
fensive linemen. Finally, we give the percentage of plays where
a team used Shotgun or Pistol in 2021. This does not count
Strategic Tendencies “Wildcat” or direct snap plays involving a non-quarterback.
The Strategic Tendencies table presents a mix of informa- The third column shows how the defensive Pass Rush
tion garnered from the standard play-by-play a well as chart- worked in 2021.

Table 11. NFL Strategic Tendencies, 2021

Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 38% — Form: Single Back 82% — Rush 3 5.8% — 4 DB 23% — Play Action 27% —
Runs, first down 48% — Form: Empty Back 9% — Rush 4 69.7% — 5 DB 61% — Offensive Motion 44% —
Runs, second-long 28% — Form: Multi Back 9% — Rush 5 19.6% — 6+ DB 14% — Avg Box (Off) 6.48 —
Runs, power sit. 59% — Pers: 3+ WR 63% — Rush 6+ 4.9% — Man Coverage 29% — Avg Box (Def) 6.48 —
Runs, behind 2H 28% — Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 30% — Edge Rusher Sacks 54.2% — CB by Sides 74% — Offensive Pace 31.09 —
Pass, ahead 2H 48% — Pers: 6+ OL 4% — Interior DL Sacks 27.8% — S/CB Cover Ratio 27% — Defensive Pace 31.05 —
Run-Pass Options 11% — Shotgun/Pistol 66% — Second Level Sacks 18.0% — DB Blitz 10% — Go for it on 4th 1.10 —
xxvi STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

Rush 3/Rush 4/Rush 5/Rush 6+: The percentage of pass in the box faced by each team’s offense and the average num-
plays (including quarterback scrambles) on which Sports Info ber of men in the box used by this team’s defense, according
Solutions recorded this team rushing the passer with three or to Sports Info Solutions.
fewer defenders, four defenders, five defenders, and six or Offensive Pace: Situation-neutral pace represents the sec-
more defenders. onds of game clock per offensive play, with the following
Edge Rusher Sacks/Interior DL Sacks/Second Level restrictions: no drives are included if they start in the fourth
Sacks: These numbers list how often sacks came from each quarter or final five minutes of the first half, and drives are
level of the defense. Second-level sacks are those that come only included if the score is within six points or less. Teams
from linebackers who are not edge rushers, plus sacks from are ranked from quickest pace (Dallas, 28.4 seconds) to slow-
defensive backs. est pace (Indianapolis, 33.5 seconds).
The fourth column has more data on the use of defensive Defensive Pace: Situation-neutral pace based on seconds
backs. of game clock per defensive play. This is a representation
4 DB/5DB/6+ DB: The percentage of plays where this de- of how a defense was approached by its opponents, not the
fense lined up with four, five, and six or more defensive backs, strategy of the defense itself. Teams are ranked from quick-
according to Sports Info Solutions. est pace (Dallas again, 28.3 seconds) to slowest pace (Seattle,
Man Coverage: The percentage of passes where this de- 32.7 seconds).
fense was in some sort of man coverage, according to Sports Go for it on fourth: This is the Aggressiveness Index (AI)
Info Solutions. introduced by Jim Armstrong in Pro Football Prospectus
CB by Sides: One of the most important lessons from game 2006, which measures how often a team goes for a first down
charting is that each team’s best cornerback does not necessar- in various fourth down situations compared to the league av-
ily match up against the opponent’s best receiver. Most cor- erage. A coach over 1.00 is more aggressive, and one below
nerbacks play a particular side of the field and in fact cover a 1.00 is less aggressive. Coaches are ranked from most aggres-
wider range of receivers than we assumed before we saw the sive to least aggressive.
charting data. This metric looks at which teams prefer to leave Coaches have become so much more aggressive on fourth
their starting cornerbacks on specific sides of the field. downs since 2018 that we have recalculated the baselines that
To figure CB by Sides, we took the top two cornerbacks represent average for Aggressiveness Index. The AI you’ll
from each team and looked at the percentage of passes where find in this book features those new baselines calculated from
that cornerback was in coverage on the left or right side of the just the last four seasons. Last year, using the historical base-
field, ignoring passes marked as “middle.” For each of the two lines based on 1981 to 2017, every head coach in the NFL was
cornerbacks, we took the higher number, right or left, and then above average. With the new baselines, the league average is
we averaged the two cornerbacks to get the final CB by Sides back to 1.00 for the past four seasons and 1.10 for last season.
rating. Teams which preferred to leave their cornerbacks in the Following each strategic tendencies table, you’ll find a
same place last season, such as Denver and Seattle, will have series of comments highlighting interesting data from that
high ratings. Teams that did more to move their best corner- team’s charting numbers. This includes DVOA ratings split
back around to cover the opponent’s top targets, such as New for things like different formations, draw plays, or play-ac-
England and the Los Angeles Rams, will have low ratings. tion passing. Please note that all DVOA ratings given in these
S/CB Cover Ratio: This is our attempt to track which teams comments are standard DVOA with no adjustments for the
like to use their safeties as hybrid safety/corners and put them specific situation being analyzed. The average DVOA for a
in man coverage on wide receivers. This ratio takes all pass specific situation will not necessarily be 0%, and it won’t nec-
targets with a defensive back in coverage, and then gives what essarily be the same for offense and defense. For example, the
percentage of those targets belonged to a player who is ros- average offensive DVOA on play-action passes in 2020 was
tered as a safety, ranging from New Seattle, which used safety 19.4%, while the average defensive DVOA was 13.5%.
Ugo Amadi as a nickelback (41%) to the New York Jets, who
had very defined roles for their two starting safeties (18%).
DB Blitz: We have data on how often the defense used at How to Read the
least one defensive back in the pass rush courtesy of ESPN
Stats & Info. Offensive Line Tables
Finally, in the final column, we have some elements of All offensive linemen who had at least 160 snaps in 2020
game strategy. (not including special teams) are listed in the offensive line
Play action: The percentage of pass plays (including quar- tables along with the position they played most often and their
terback scrambles) which began with a play-action fake to Age as of the 2022 season, listed simply as the difference be-
the running back. This percentage does not include fake end- tween birth year and 2022. Players born in January and De-
arounds unless there was also a fake handoff. It does include cember of the same year will have the same listed age.
flea flickers. Then we list games, games started, snaps, and offensive
Offensive motion: The percentage of offensive plays which penalties (Pen) for each lineman. The penalty total includes
began with a man in motion before the snap. declined and offsetting penalties. Finally, there are three num-
Average Box: These items list the average number of men bers for blown blocks in 2021.
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xxvii

• Blown blocks leading directly to sacks its running back breaking long runs to make the running game
• All blown blocks on pass plays, not only including work, and therefore tends to have a less consistent running at-
those that lead to sacks but also those that lead to hur- tack. Second-level yards fall somewhere in between.
ries, hits, or offensive holding penalties Blown block rate (BB Rt), which is simply this team’s total
• All blown blocks on run plays; generally, this means of blown blocks on running plays divided by the total number
plays where the running back is tackled for a loss or no of running plays, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only
gain, but it also includes a handful of plays where the blown blocks by the offensive line are included, not blown
running back would have been tackled for a loss if not blocks by skill players.
for a broken tackle, as well as offensive holding penal- The next seven columns give information about pass pro-
ties on running plays tection. That starts with total sacks, followed by adjusted sack
rate (ASR) and its rank among the 32 teams. Some teams al-
SIS charters mark blown blocks not just on sacks but also low a lot of sacks because they throw a lot of passes; adjusted
on hurries, hits, and runs stuffed at the line. However, while sack rate accounts for this by dividing sacks and intentional
we have blown blocks to mark bad plays, we still don’t have grounding by total pass plays. It is also adjusted for situation
a metric that consistently marks good plays, so blown blocks (sacks are much more common on third down, particularly
should not be taken as the end all and be all of judging indi- third-and-long) and opponent, all of which makes it a better
vidual linemen. It’s simply one measurement that goes into measurement than raw sacks totals. Remember that quarter-
the conversation. backs share responsibility for sacks, and two different quar-
As with all player tables in the team chapters, players who terbacks behind the same line can have very different adjusted
are no longer on the team have an asterisk and those new to sack rates.
the team in 2022 are in italics. Next comes pressure rate: this is the percentage of pass
The second offensive line table lists the last three years of plays where we have marked pass pressure, based on Sports
our various line stats. Info Solutions charting. Sacks or scrambles due to coverage
The first column gives standard yards per carry by each are not counted as passes with pressure. Note that pressure
team’s running backs (Yds). The next two columns give ad- rates around the league were about five percentage points
justed line yards (ALY) followed by rank among the 32 teams. higher in 2019 compared with 2020 or 2021, so a team might
Power gives the percentage of runs in short-yardage “pow- have a lower pressure rate the last two seasons but be ranked
er situations” that achieved a first down or touchdown. Those worse because pass protection declined in comparison to the
situations include any third or fourth down with 1 or 2 yards to rest of the league. As with sacks, quarterbacks also share re-
go, and any runs in goal-to-go situations from the 2-yard line sponsibility for pressure rates. And just as with runs, we’ve
or closer. Unlike the other rushing numbers on the Offensive listed blown block rate (BB Rt) for pass plays.
Line table, Power includes quarterbacks. Finally, continuity score (Cont.) tells you how much conti-
Stuff gives the percentage of runs that are stuffed for zero nuity each offensive line had from game-to-game in that sea-
or negative gain. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked son. It was introduced in the Cleveland chapter of Pro Foot-
from stuffed least often (1) to most often (32). ball Prospectus 2007. Continuity score starts with 48 and then
Second-Level (2Lev) Yards and Open-Field (OpFld) Yards subtracts:
represent yardage where the running back has the most power
over the amount of the gain. Second-level yards represent the • The number of players over five who started at least
number of yards per carry that come 5 to 10 yards past the one game on the offensive line;
line of scrimmage. Open-field yards represent the number of • The number of times the team started at least one dif-
yards per carry that come 11 or more yards past the line of ferent lineman compared to the game before; and
scrimmage. A team with a low ranking in adjusted line yards • The difference between 16 and that team’s longest
but a high ranking in open-field yards is heavily dependent on streak where the same line started consecutive games.

Table 12. Lions Offensive Line

Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Penei Sewell LT/RT 22 16/16 1039 11 5.0 23 3 Matt Nelson RT 27 13/11 675 2 4.0 17 7
Jonah Jackson LG 25 16/16 1037 8 3.0 15 10 Taylor Decker LT 28 9/9 529 7 0.5 10 5
Halapoulivaati Vaitai RG 29 15/15 953 2 0.0 5 11 Tommy Kraemer RG/LG 24 9/3 238 3 0.0 3 4
Evan Brown C 26 16/12 755 4 0.0 4 9 Frank Ragnow C 26 4/4 223 0 0.0 0 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.94 4.21 20 64% 19 18% 12 1.12 22 0.54 25 11.8% 26 43 7.2% 19 30.2% 18 14.6% 23 25
2020 4.07 4.30 19 67% 14 17% 18 1.06 29 0.62 20 8.2% 7 42 7.2% 21 20.8% 5 10.4% 8 23
2021 4.27 4.09 21 59% 26 19% 27 1.20 15 0.78 8 12.3% 22 36 5.8% 12 24.7% 11 12.9% 11 25
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.19 (30) Left Tackle: 5.05 (4) Mid/Guard: 3.95 (23) Right Tackle: 4.10 (18) Right End: 3.66 (24)
xxviii STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

The Raiders led the NFL with a continuity score of 43 last a two-gapping 3-4 system have a lot more in common with
season, while the lowest score belonged to Carolina and New run-stuffing 4-3 tackles than with smaller 4-3 defensive ends.
Orleans, each at 17. Therefore, we have separated defensive front players into
Finally, underneath the table in italics we give 2020 adjust- three tables rather than two. All defensive tackles and defen-
ed line yards in each of the five directions with rank among sive ends from 3-4 teams are listed as Defensive Linemen,
the 32 teams. The league average was 4.30 on left end runs and all ranked together. Defensive ends from 4-3 teams and
(LE), 4.38 on left tackle runs (LT), 4.24 on runs up the middle outside linebackers from 3-4 teams are listed as Edge Rush-
(MID), 4.21 on right tackle runs (RT), and 4.40 on right end ers, and all ranked together. Most 4-3 linebackers are ranked
runs (RE). along with 3-4 inside linebackers and listed simply as Line-
backers. For the most part this categorization puts players
with similar roles together. Some players who have hybrid
How to Read the roles are ranked at the position more appropriate to their role,
such as J.J. Watt as an edge rusher despite playing defensive
Defensive Front Tables end in a nominally 3-4 scheme.
Defensive players make plays. Plays aren’t just tackles— The tables for defensive linemen and edge rushers are the
interceptions and pass deflections change the course of the same, although the players are ranked in two separate catego-
game, and so does the act of forcing a fumble or beating the ries. Players are listed with the following numbers:
offensive players to a fumbled ball. While some plays stop Age in 2022, determined by 2022 minus birth year, plus posi-
a team on third down and force a punt, others merely stop a tion (Pos) and the number of defensive Snaps played in 2021.
receiver after he’s caught a 30-yard pass. We can measure op- Plays (Plays): The total defensive plays including tackles,
portunities in pass coverage thanks to our charting partners at assists, pass deflections, interceptions, fumbles forced, and
Sports Info Solutions. fumble recoveries. This number comes from the official NFL
Defensive players are listed in these tables if they meet one gamebooks and therefore does not include plays on which the
of three baselines: player is listed by Sports Info Solutions in coverage but does
not appear in the standard play-by-play. Special teams tackles
1) at least 20 plays during the 2021 season are also not included.
2) at least eight games with 25% of the team’s defensive Percentage of team plays (TmPct): The percentage of total
snaps in those games team plays involving this defender. The sum of the percent-
3) at least five games with 60% of the team’s defensive ages of team plays for all defenders on a given team will ex-
snaps in those games. ceed 100%, primarily due to shared tackles. This number is
adjusted based on games played, so an injured player may be
Defensive players who were with two teams last year are fifth on his team in plays but third in TmPct.
only listed with the final team they played with but stats in- Stops (Stop): The total number of plays which prevent a
clude both teams. “success” by the offense (45% of needed yards on first down,
60% on second down, 100% on third or fourth down).
Defensive Linemen/Edge Rushers Defeats (Dfts): The total number of plays which stop the of-
As we’ve noted earlier in this toolbox: as hybrid defenses fense from gaining first down yardage on third or fourth down,
become more popular, it becomes more and more difficult to stop the offense behind the line of scrimmage, or result in a
tell the difference between a defensive end and an outside fumble (regardless of which team recovers) or interception.
linebacker. What we do know is that there are certain play- Broken tackles (BTkl): The number of broken tackles re-
ers whose job is to rush the passer, even if they occasionally corded by SIS game charters.
drop into coverage. We also know that the defensive ends in The next five columns represent runs only, starting with the

Table 13. Bengals Defensive Line and Edge Rushers

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Larry Ogunjobi* 28 DT 16 724 49 6.0% 37 38 17 10 36 75% 26 2.0 24 7.0 11 23 0
D.J. Reader 28 DT 15 590 43 5.6% 48 32 5 1 36 78% 15 1.9 18 2.0 5 11 0
B.J. Hill 27 DT 16 502 50 6.1% 33 34 9 1 42 67% 58 2.5 40 5.5 6 12 0
Josh Tupou 28 DT 17 410 12 1.4% -- 10 2 1 11 82% -- 2.0 -- 0.0 1 5 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Sam Hubbard 27 DE 16 877 64 7.8% 11 48 20 6 47 68% 66 3.0 69 7.5 9 34 3
Trey Hendrickson 28 DE 16 717 34 4.2% 70 25 18 3 14 64% 76 1.8 15 14.0 13 39 1
Cameron Sample 23 DE 14 310 14 2.0% -- 11 3 2 10 70% -- 5.5 -- 1.5 3 6 0
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xxix

number of plays each player made on Runs. Stop rate (St%) Targets (Tgts): The number of pass players on which game
gives the percentage of these run plays which were stops. Av- charters listed this player in coverage.
erage yards (AvYd) gives the average number of yards gained Success rate (Suc%): The percentage plays of targeting this
by the runner when this player is credited with making the player on which the offense did not have a successful play.
play. This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions, but
Finally, we have pass rush numbers, starting with standard also short completions which do not meet our baselines for
NFL Sack totals. success (45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second
Hit: To qualify as a quarterback hit, the defender must knock down, 100% on third or fourth down).
the quarterback to the ground in the act of throwing or after Yards per pass (Yd/P): The average number of yards gained
the pass is thrown. We have listed hits on all plays, including on plays on which this defender was the listed target.
those nullified by penalties. (After all, many of the hardest Passes defensed (PD) and interceptions (Int) come from the
hits come on plays cancelled because the hit itself draws a NFL totals.
roughing the passer penalty.) Our count of hits does not add These stats are explained in more detail in the section on
in sacks; that count is referred to elsewhere as “knockdowns.” secondary tables. There are 72 linebackers are ranked in the
Hurries (Hur): The number of quarterback hurries recorded charting stats, based on hitting one of two minimums: 16 chart-
by Sports Info Solutions game charters. This includes both hur- ed passes with fewer than eight games started, or 12 charted
ries on standard plays and hurries that force an offensive hold- passes with eight or more games started (but a minimum of five
ing penalty that cancels the play and costs the offense yardage. games). As a result of the different thresholds, some linebackers
Disruptions (Dsprt): This stat combines two different but are ranked in standard stats but not charting stats.
similar types of plays. First, plays where a pass-rusher forced
an incomplete pass or interception by hitting the quarterback Further Details
as he was throwing the ball. These plays are generally not Just as in the offensive tables, players who are no longer
counted as passes defensed, so we wanted a way to count on the team are marked with asterisks, and players who are
them. Second, plays where the pass-rusher batted the ball new to this team for 2022 are listed in italics. Defensive front
down at the line of scrimmage or tipped it in the air. These player statistics are not adjusted for opponent.
plays are usually incomplete, but occasionally they lead to in- Numbers for defensive linemen and linebackers unfortu-
terceptions, and even more rarely they fall into the hands of nately do not reflect all of the opportunities a player had to
offensive receivers. As with the “hit in motion” disruptions, make a play, but they do show us which players were most ac-
some plays counted as tips by Football Outsiders were not tive on the field. A large number of plays could mean a strong
counted as passes defensed by the NFL. defensive performance, or it could mean that the linebacker
Defensive linemen and edge rushers are both ranked by per- in question plays behind a poor part of the line. In general,
centage of team plays, run stop rate, and average yards per run defensive numbers should be taken as information that tells us
tackle. The lowest number of average yards earns the top rank what happened on the field in 2021, but not as a strict, unas-
(negative numbers indicate the average play ending behind sailable judgment of which players are better than others—
the line of scrimmage). Defensive linemen and edge rushers particularly when the difference between two players is small
are ranked if they played at least 40% of defensive snaps in (for example, players ranked 20th and 30th) instead of large
the games they were active. There are 100 defensive linemen (players ranked 20th and 70th).
and 98 edge rushers ranked. After the individual statistics for linemen and linebackers, the
Defensive Front section contains a table that looks exactly like
Linebackers the table in the Offensive Line section, with two differences:
Most of the stats for linebackers are the same as those for
defensive linemen. Linebackers are ranked in percentage of • Blown block rates are based on blown blocks forced by
team plays, and also in stop rate and average yards for running each defense, and include all blown blocks including
plays specifically. Linebackers are ranked in these stats if they those by both offensive linemen and skill players.
played at least 35% of defensive snaps in the games they were • Rushing numbers are for all opposing running backs
active, with 85 linebackers ranked. against this team’s defensive front. As we’re on the
The final six columns in the linebacker stats come from opposite side of the ball, teams are now ranked in the
Sports Info Solutions game charting. opposite order, so the No. 1 defensive front is the one

Table 14. Rams Linebackers

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Troy Reeder* 28 ILB 17 681 96 10.4% 57 47 13 15 53 58% 39 3.1 14 2.0 2 7 33 42% 53 6.2 37 6 2
Ernest Jones 23 ILB 15 440 62 7.6% 76 35 14 7 24 71% 6 3.8 40 1.0 1 5 21 57% 20 4.8 11 4 2
Travin Howard 26 ILB 12 101 20 3.1% -- 10 4 2 12 50% -- 4.1 -- 0.0 0 1 4 50% -- 4.0 -- 3 1
Bobby Wagner 32 MLB 16 1128 175 18.7% 7 75 21 9 102 50% 62 3.8 41 1.0 2 7 47 47% 43 6.1 34 5 1
xxx STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

that allows the fewest adjusted line yards, the lowest Targets (Tgts): The number of pass plays on which game
percentage in Power situations, and has the highest ad- charters listed this player in coverage.
justed sack rate. Directions for adjusted line yards are Target percentage (Tgt%): The number of plays on which
given from the offense’s perspective, so runs left end this player was targeted divided by the total number of charted
and left tackle are aimed at the right defensive end and passes against his defense, not including plays listed as Un-
(assuming the tight end is on the other side) weakside covered. Like percentage of team plays, this metric is adjusted
linebacker. based on number of games played.
Average depth of target (aDOT): The average distance in
As noted earlier, charted pressure rates around the league the air beyond the line of scrimmage of all passes targeted at
were roughly five percentage points higher in 2019 compared this defender. It does not include yards after catch and is use-
to 2020 and 2021. ful for seeing which defenders were covering receivers deeper
or shorter. This is also often referred to as “Air Yards.”
Success rate (Suc%): The percentage plays of targeting this
How to Read the Defensive player on which the offense did not have a successful play.
This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions, but
Secondary Tables also short completions which do not meet our baselines for
The first few columns in the secondary tables are based on success (45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second
standard play-by-play, not game charting, with the exception down, 100% on third or fourth down). Defensive pass inter-
of broken tackles. Age, total plays, percentage of team plays, ference is counted as a failure for the defensive player similar
stops, and defeats are computed the same way they are for to a completion of equal yardage (and a new first down).
other defensive players, so that the secondary can be com- Yards per pass (Yd/P): The average number of yards gained
pared to the defensive line and linebackers. That means that on plays on which this defender was the listed target.
total plays here includes passes defensed, sacks, tackles af- Passes defensed (PD) and Interceptions (Int) represent the
ter receptions, tipped passes, and interceptions, but not pass standard NFL count for both stats.
plays on which this player was in coverage but was not given Cornerbacks need 50 charted passes or eight games started
a tackle or passed defense by the NFL’s official scorer. with at least 30 charted passes to be ranked in the defensive
The middle five columns address each defensive back’s role stats, with 80 cornerbacks ranked in total. Safeties require 20
in stopping the run. Average yardage and stop rate for running charted passes or eight games started with at least 12 charted
plays is computed in the same manner as for defensive line- passes, with 75 safeties ranked in total. Strong and free safe-
men and linebackers. ties are ranked together.
The third section of statistics represents data from Sports Just like the defensive front, the defensive secondary has a
Info Solutions game charting. We do not count pass plays on table of team statistics following the individual numbers. This
which this player was in coverage, but the incomplete was table gives DVOA figured against different types of receivers.
listed as Thrown Away, Batted Down, or Hit in Motion. Hail Each offense’s wide receivers have had one receiver designat-
Mary passes are also not included. ed as No. 1, and another as No. 2. (Occasionally this is diffi-

Table 15. Lions Defensive Secondary

Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
James Bradberry* 29 CB 17 1159 64 6.8% 68 26 10 12 9 22% 74 6.4 44 83 19.3% 45 11.4 51% 54 7.3 44 17 4
Xavier McKinney 24 FS 17 1133 103 10.9% 33 29 16 10 39 21% 68 10.1 71 34 8.1% 40 10.0 47% 55 6.4 30 10 5
Logan Ryan* 31 SS 15 1002 125 15.0% 4 40 19 13 50 36% 38 6.6 34 33 8.9% 32 10.6 45% 56 9.1 55 8 0
Adoree' Jackson 27 CB 13 814 70 9.7% 22 30 8 10 18 28% 63 7.1 58 55 18.2% 57 13.7 65% 5 4.9 4 8 1
Julian Love 24 FS 17 610 63 6.7% 71 27 9 6 23 30% 48 6.3 28 28 12.4% 11 9.4 54% 42 7.5 46 7 1
Darnay Holmes 24 CB 11 281 30 4.9% -- 12 4 2 8 50% -- 7.1 -- 17 16.3% -- 11.3 53% -- 6.3 -- 2 1
Aaron Robinson 24 CB 9 268 29 5.8% -- 9 4 1 8 13% -- 7.6 -- 24 24.1% -- 12.5 58% -- 5.6 -- 3 0
Jabrill Peppers* 27 SS 6 229 30 9.0% -- 12 5 3 4 100% -- 0.8 -- 18 21.2% -- 7.6 33% -- 10.2 -- 1 0
Henry Black 25 FS 17 262 26 3.2% -- 8 4 6 9 44% -- 6.3 -- 19 17.1% -- 9.0 32% -- 10.5 -- 2 1

Table 16. Buccaneers Secondary Team Stats

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 12 3.7% 17 2.2% 18 -20.0% 6 -4.2% 18 -2.8% 8 10.7% 27 -49.0% 2
2020 5 -15.5% 6 5.9% 22 -28.6% 1 -23.2% 4 -12.0% 3 11.5% 25 -16.1% 5
2021 10 -5.2% 14 -11.2% 11 -2.8% 13 -4.7% 19 -7.8% 6 0.5% 19 1.5% 22
 STATISTICAL TOOLBOX xxxi

cult, due to injury or a situation with “co-No. 1 receivers,” but been based on the performance of opponents without this team
it’s usually pretty obvious.) The other receivers form a third being able to control the outcome. We combine the opposing
category, with tight ends and running backs as fourth and fifth team’s value on field goals, kickoff distance, and punt distance,
categories. The defense is then judged on the performance of adjusted for weather and altitude, and then switch the sign to
each receiver based on the standard DVOA method, with each represent that good special teams by the opponent will cost the
rating adjusted based on strength of schedule. (Obviously, it’s listed team points, and bad special teams will effectively hand
a lot harder to cover the No. 1 receiver of the Buffalo Bills them points. We have to give the qualifier of “usually” because,
than to cover the No. 1 receiver of the Chicago Bears.) Pass D as explained earlier, certain returners such as Cordarrelle Pat-
Rank is the total ranking of the pass defense, as seen before terson will affect opposing special teams strategy, and a handful
in the Trends and Splits table, and combines all five categories of the missed field goals are blocked. Nonetheless, the “hidden”
plus sacks and passes with no intended target. value is still “hidden” for most teams, and they are ranked from
The “defense vs. types of receivers” table should be used the most hidden value gained (Indianapolis, 24.7 points) to the
to analyze the defense as a whole rather than individual play- most value lost (Washington, -18.9 points).
ers. The ratings against types of receivers are generally based We also have methods for measuring the gross value of kick-
on defensive schemes, not specific cornerbacks, except for offs and punts. These measures assume that all kickoffs or punts
certain defenses that really do move one cornerback around will have average returns unless they are touchbacks or kicked
to cover the opponent’s top weapon (i.e., New England). The out of bounds, then judge the kicker or punter on the value with
ratings against tight ends and running backs are in large part those assumed returns. We also count special teams tackles;
due to the performance of linebackers. these include both tackles and assists, but do not include tackles
In addition, we list each team’s numbers covering receivers on two-point conversions, tackles after onside kicks, or tackles
based on where they lined up before the snap, either wide or of the player who recovers a fumble after the punt or kick re-
in the slot. The “vs. Other WR” number has sometimes been turner loses the ball. The best and worst individual values for
misrepresented as measuring coverage of slot receivers, but in kickers, punters, returners, and kick gunners (i.e. tackle totals)
the modern NFL, the team’s No. 1 or No. 2 receiver will often are listed in the statistical appendix at the end of the book.
be working predominantly out of the slot, while other receiv-
ers will switch back and forth between the two positions. The Administrative Minutia
listing of coverage of wide receivers in the slot also includes Receiving statistics include all passes intended for the re-
wide receivers lined up tight in a tight end position. ceiver in question, including those that are incomplete or in-
tercepted. The word passes refers to both complete and in-
How to Read the complete pass attempts. When rating receivers, interceptions
are treated as incomplete passes with no penalty.
Special Teams Tables For the computation of DVOA and DYAR, passing statis-
The special teams tables list the last three years of kick, tics include sacks as well as fumbles on aborted snaps. We do
punt, and return numbers for each team. not include kneeldown plays or spikes for the purpose of stop-
The first two columns list total special teams DVOA and ping the clock. Some interceptions which we have determined
rank among the 32 teams. The next two columns list the value to be “Hail Mary” plays that end the first half or game are
in actual points of field goals and extra points (FG/XP) when counted as regular incomplete passes, not turnovers.
compared to how a league average kicker would do from the All statistics generated by ESPN Stats & Info or Sports
same distances, adjusted for weather and altitude, and rank Info Solutions game charting, or our combination of the
among the 32 teams. Next, we list the estimated value in ac- two sources, may be different from totals compiled by other
tual points of field position over or under the league average sources.
based on net kickoffs (Net Kick) and rank that value among Unless we say otherwise, when we refer to third-down per-
the 32 teams. That is followed by the estimated point values formance in this book we are referring to a combination of
of field position for kick returns (Kick Ret), net punting (Net third down and the handful of rushing and passing plays that
Punt), and punt returns (Punt Ret) and their respective ranks. take place on fourth down (primarily fourth-and-1).
The final two columns represent the value of “Hidden” spe-
cial teams, plays which throughout the past decade have usually Aaron Schatz

Table 17. 49ers Special Teams

Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 1.0% 12 -5.7 27 0.5 16 1.3 10 6.4 7 2.4 9 -5.9 24
2020 -2.1% 23 -1.5 17 -2.0 21 -5.0 31 2.0 16 -3.9 27 -9.0 26
2021 -2.4% 26 0.1 15 -7.0 30 -9.8 32 4.6 5 -0.5 16 -0.2 18
 The Year In Quotes
CHEKHOV’S QUARTERBACK THE YEAR SABAN LIGHTENS UP
“[Matthew Stafford]’s the same quarterback who was on the Adam Luckett, Kentucky Sports Radio: “Dave Aranda last
Detroit Lions and they still didn’t go to the playoffs, and they week at Big 12 Media Day said defenses now are getting more
had Megatron. What was the problem over there in Detroit? aggressive, getting negative plays. Tackles for loss, sacks are
“They went and traded Jared Goff, who went to the playoffs now more important. So he thinks that an evolution might be
several times and went to the Super Bowl. Yeah, he lost. He 12 personnel, 13 personnel, wide zone. Do you see that? The
went to the Super Bowl, though. I’ve yet to see that with Matt college game going that way? Or is it still important to spread
Stafford. it out and hit explosives in the vertical passing game?”
“He’s still great. I believe he’s a top-10 quarterback, maybe Nick Saban: “Uh … what is 12 personnel? I-I don’t…”
top-five. I don’t know. We’ll see. I’m just going off of what I Luckett: “I think it’s a two-tight end set.”
see. And I see Jared Goff got those boys to the Super Bowl.” Saban: “Two-tight end?”
—At the start of the season, San Francisco 49ers safety Jim- Luckett: “Yes sir.”
mie Ward thought the biggest difference between former Los Saban: “And two wide receivers, or one? I’m just kidding. I
Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff and current Rams quar- know what 12 personnel is.”
terback Matthew Stafford was Goff’s ability to lead a team —Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban plays
to a Super Bowl. Their only difference now? Stafford’s ring. dumb for a few moments as Kentucky Sports Radio’s Adam
(B/R Gridiron via Instagram) Luckett asks whether multiple-tight end sets will be the fu-
ture for college football offenses. (Tyler Thompson, Kentucky
GOD, PIGSKIN, CHICKEN Sports Radio via Twitter)
“Coming down here to the South, one thing I definitely
learned is: Jesus is No. 1, then football, and then people love WHO’S THE FAIREST OF THEM ALL?
Bojangles.” “I don’t spend an hour looking in the mirror before games
—Clemson Tigers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei had his pri- like Matt LaFleur does.”
orities in order early as Clemson’s new starter. (Trevor Sik- —Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith took some time
kema, The Draft Network via Twitter) out of his typical media address to send some shots at Green
Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Smith worked under
TOM BRADY 1, FATHER TIME 0 LaFleur as a member of the Tennessee Titans, taking over the
“Year 22…LFG” offensive coordinator job in 2018 upon LaFleur’s departure
—Tom Brady’s post celebrating his 22nd season the night for Green Bay.
before Week 1 kicked off.
“Well, I’m honored he’d think of me, first of all. Arthur
“I just turned 21 a few days ago…” and I did share a locker room together in Tennessee. Yeah,
—Cleveland Browns wide receiver Anthony Schwartz re- I might have been looking in the mirror, getting my clothes
vealed he has never lived in a world where Tom Brady wasn’t right, while he was trying to get his hair right with that Just
playing professional football. (The Checkdown via Twitter) for Men. (Removes cap to show a full head of brown hair.) You
guys know he’s younger than me, right?”
GET BUSY LIVIN’, OR GET BUSY PLAYIN’ FOR HOUSTON —LaFleur jabbed back when asked about Smith’s com-
“Green Bay is like a Fortune 500 company and Houston is ments at a press conference. Smith didn’t seem to mind the
like a start-up.” playful retort, however, explaining that he’s “been going gray
—Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb compar- since 20.” (ESPN)
ing his new/old team to the Houston Texans, for whom he
played in 2020. (NFL.com) CAN’T HIDE BEHIND ZOOM ANYMORE
Reporter: “It’s good to see you in person.”
Cam Newton: “And it feels so good, right? Y’all uglier in
person! Just messin’ with you.”
—New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton saw the
media for the first time in person since joining the team in
2020, and he came with jokes. (Rosie Langello, WPRI via
Twitter)

xxxii
 THE YEAR IN QUOTES xxxiii

CARDIAC ARREST IN A CUP “Byron realized he lost all of his leverage once he gave the
“Normally what I do is I get two venti of the [Pike Place] ball away. He should have held it and then he has as much
with two shots in them, so a black eye in both. That’s what I leverage as possible.”
come in with. That’s how I start the day.” —Brady on ESPN’s ManningCast saying that he probably
—Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell discusses his would have held the ball if he were in Byron’s position.
morning coffee order, filled with enough caffeine to kill an
actual lion. (Woodward Sports Network via Twitter) “Amateur move. If he would have held it, he would have
been sitting in the Tom Brady suite the rest of the season. Am-
THEY DON’T CALL OVERTIME ‘DO OR DIE’ FOR NOTHING ateur move on his part.”
“I’m in favor of execution. Maybe our entire team needs to —Peyton Manning affirming the decision to keep the ball
be executed after tonight.” instead of giving it away. (NFL via Instagram)
—Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly took
many by surprise by badly mangling a legendary quote from “I accidentally gave it away. I didn’t know.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach John McKay in the post- —Mike Evans reiterating after the game he had no idea it
game interview that followed his team’s 41-38 overtime win was Brady’s 600th touchdown pass.
against the Florida State Seminoles. (Tony X via Twitter)
“Well, I might accidentally not throw you another touch-
LIFE IMITATING ART down pass all season.”
Reporter: “I don’t know if you’ve seen the meme going —Brady’s response. (B/R Gridiron via Twitter)
around, but it’s basically like, ‘F*ck it, Tyreek is down there
somewhere.’ Did that come to fruition today, or…?” THE PATRIOT TRAP
Patrick Mahomes: “It’s funny you say that, I literally just “Damn right. Belichick wanted him out the door, and last
saw that. I literally just saw that, and ‘Sometimes it be like year he threw [50] touchdowns. I think that’s a pretty good
that’ is what I have to say. Sometimes you just got to throw it year.”
up. He’s a little dude but he goes and catches it and he’s pretty —Brady’s father, Thomas Brady Sr., on whether he felt vin-
fast, so usually good things happen.” dicated on behalf of his son after Brady won a Super Bowl his
—Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes breaks first year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (ProFootballTalk)
down memes following his 75-yard touchdown pass to wide
receiver Tyreek Hill in a Week 1 comeback win over the “Comments made by Thomas Edward Brady, a 77-year-old
Cleveland Browns. (B/R Gridiron via Instagram) insurance company CEO who should know better at this point
in his life, doesn’t necessarily reflect the views or positions
THE FANTASTIC VOYAGE OF TOM BRADY’S BALL held by his son, Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. So further-
“I don’t keep too many things. In that circumstance, I more, should Tom Sr. continue to speak out on behalf of his
thought that might be a good one to keep.” son without the express written consent, Tom Jr. reserves the
—Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady on his right to eventually put him in a home against his will. That’s
600th touchdown ball, which wide receiver Mike Evans un- all I have to say.”
knowingly gave to a fan after scoring a touchdown. A member —Brady Jr.’s “official statement” regarding his father’s
of the Buccaneers organization negotiated with the fan to get comments. (Tom Brady via Twitter)
the ball back by the end of the game. (NFL.com)
“It’s like going to a family barbecue and you’re like the kid
“Tom is the one who earned the ball. I just happened to be with divorced parents, and they’re both there and you don’t
here and got lucky. … I’m hoping I get to play a round of golf know if they’re going to fight.”
with him.” —Former New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edel-
—Byron Kennedy, the fan who ended up with the touch- man on the reunion between Brady and Belichick in New
down ball, on why he gave it back and what he hopes to get England. (B/R Gridiron via Instagram)
back in exchange. In exchange for the ball, Kennedy received
two signed jerseys and a helmet from Brady, a signed Mike WHAT MORE CAN YOU SAY?
Evans jersey and game cleats, $1,000 in credit from the Buc- “It’s Mike effing White. He said no cursing, but yeah. It’s
caneers team store, two season tickets for the rest of this sea- Mike effing White, alright? Let’s put it to bed. It’s Mike effing
son and next, one whole Bitcoin from Brady himself, and an White. He’s a savage. He’s a dog. He’s an animal. I said it on
additional $30,000 worth of tokens from Rob Gronkowski Monday. I’ll say it again. I’ll keep saying it. He’s a dog. He’s
and his cryptocurrency partner. (B/R Gridiron via Twitter) an animal.”
—New York Jets running back Ty Johnson on backup quar-
terback Mike White, who led the Jets to their second win of
the season over the Cincinnati Bengals. White became the first
quarterback in NFL history to throw for 400 yards and three
touchdowns in his first career game. (ESPN via Instagram)
xxxiv THE YEAR IN QUOTES

THE NFL, LIVE ON NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MOMS: THE FIRST GADGET PLAYERS
“We’re a lion pack now. There is no more lone lion. It’s the “If my mom could go out there and work three jobs, I can
pride now. Everybody has got to get a piece of the gazelle.” go out there and play three positions. Why can’t I do what she
—Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons may have did for us? It’s like a big motivation, and every time I’m on the
spawned a new nickname while talking about getting after field, I don’t care where they put me, I’m gonna make a play.
quarterbacks with the likes of DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy You can put me at safety; I’m getting an interception. You put
Gregory, and Neville Gallimore. (Joe Machota, The Athletic me at defensive end; I’m-a get a sack. That’s just the mindset
via Twitter) that I have, and nobody can take that confidence away from
me.”
“We’re not alligators. We don’t get paralyzed after we eat.” —Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson uses
—Parsons on staying hungry after clinching the NFC East the extra effort his mom put in while he was growing up as
title. (B/R Gridiron via Twitter) motivation to get him to give more effort and provide versatil-
ity on the football field. (AtlantaFalcons.com)
“Tre was looking for an animal, and everybody wanted to
be the lion, but I was like, ‘No, there’s only one lion.’ I was KEEPS YOU HUMBLE
talking to Donovan Wilson and told him, ‘You could be a jag- “Nothing like going home after a tough loss and playing
uar. I like jags, they can jump, and they can swim. They actu- Rocket League only to be bodied by a 12-year-old whose user-
ally go and kill alligators, dive into the lakes and kill them.’ name is sook_medik”
Then Tre came over and he mentioned some things and I was —Philadelphia Eagles running back Boston Scott reminds
like, ‘Nah, Tre you a eagle, bro. You in a league of your own.’ us that no matter where you are in life or how well you think
And he was like, ‘an eagle?’ And I was like, ‘Yeah, eagles only you’re doing, there is always going to be a kid out there who’s
fly with other eagles. No other bird can reach their altitude.’ better than you at video games. (Boston Scott via Twitter)
So Tre’s the eagle and I’m the lion. He owns the air and I own
the ground. So that’s what we’ve got to do. That’s why we’re
7-11.” TB’S BA ON FA OBJ
—Parsons has gone as far as categorizing his teammates as “No. We’ve already got AB, we don’t need OBJ. Too many
their own animals, turning the Dallas Cowboys defense into letters.”
an Animorphs book. (David Helman, DallasCowboys.com via —Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians men-
Twitter) tioned during a press conference that his team was out on
Odell Beckham Jr. because there were enough acronyms in
“He’s as pure as mother’s milk. He just basically steps out the locker room already. (Rick Stroud, Tampa Bay Times via
there and gives you anything he’s got. Nature gave him skills Twitter)
and boy, does he know to use them.”
—Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones had his own for Parsons. TIME FOR HIBERNATION
“They’re gonna kill that kid [Justin Fields]. You know
“I never heard that one before.” what? Our offensive line ought to be arrested for attempted
—Parsons’ response, preceded by several crying laughing murder, because they’re just … That poor kid. And a couple
emojis. (Adam Schefter, ESPN via Instagram) other people should be arrested for imitating cornerbacks.
But anyway, yeah, I’m very frustrated. I think George Mc-
ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE Caskey and the Bears head office there should be doing some
“I don’t even know if we’re going to be on this Earth for the drastic things.”
next 10 to 15 years.” —Chicago Bears legend Dick Butkus runs through his
—Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields’ response when laundry list of gripes with the team’s current make-up. When
asked how he feels about being the Bears’ franchise quarter- asked about his opinion on general manager Ryan Pace and
back for the next 10 to 15 years. (Jeremy Layton, New York head coach Matt Nagy, Butkus refrained from commenting,
Post via Twitter) but did close this clip out by saying, “Who’s coming up with
the game plan? Jesus.” (Stacking the Box via Twitter)
CORRAL CURE-ALL
Cole Cubelic: “You came out to a lot of boos, what gives SLEEPLESS IN SEATTLE 2: FINGER REHAB
you comfort and calm when you come out to that kind of re- “We probably spent 19 or 20 hours a day working on this
ception?” hand, trying to break records with this thing. It was a pretty
Lane Kiffin: “Matt Corral.” severe injury in the sense of how many things happened. I
—Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin had Matt Corral think for me, my whole mindset was to cut the time in half, and
to provide a sense of security during his return to Knoxville, that has been my mindset since the moment that it happened.”
Tennessee. Kiffin may have been struck with bottles and a —Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson on the
golf ball or two, but Ole Miss walked away with a 31-26 win rehabilitation routine he underwent to heal his surgically re-
over the Volunteers. (No Context CFB via Twitter) paired finger. (Seattle Times)
 THE YEAR IN QUOTES xxxv

THE YEAR IN NOBODY KNOWING HOW OVERTIME WORKS ‘HEY, NICE PLAY!’ ‘THANKS! I’M NEVER DOING IT AGAIN’
“I didn’t even know you could tie in the NFL. In my mind, I “I could kind of point to a half-dozen throws there that were
was sitting on the bench saying, ‘I’ve got another quarter to too aggressive, and I could argue that that’s one of them. I
go.’ But someone came to me and said, ‘That’s it.’ I’ve never don’t think you want to live doing that. I think that we got
had a tie in my life before.” away with it a couple times. I keep saying the [phrase] ‘ra-
—Pittsburgh Steelers rookie running back Najee Harris zor’s edge’ but that’s a play where it’s an example of it. The
had no idea the NFL’s overtime period could end in a tie. He difference between him catching that and making the play he
learned firsthand as the Steelers tied the Detroit Lions 16-16. did and it going the other way [on an interception] is very
small.”
“It’s nuts. I’m back there like, ‘Yo, how many overtimes can —Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins wanted to
we do?’ And they’re like, ‘Three’ ... I hear, ‘Two, one,’ and we play it safe going forward, uncomfortable throwing it up to let
were like, ‘Yo, whatever’s going on, we’re about to just put wide receiver Adam Thielen make a play. That throw even-
our all into it.’” tually set up Minnesota’s game-winning field goal over the
—Detroit Lions running back Godwin Igwebuike was in a Green Bay Packers in Week 11.
similar place, assuming there would be multiple overtime pe-
riods. (ESPN) “I want him to keep doing it like he’s doing it. He can’t
second-guess himself. If he throws an interception, that’s life.
MATTHEW JUDON DECLARES WAR ON MAC AND CHEESE You keep going for the jugular, it’s gonna open up a lot of
“I’m not even going to answer your question. I’m going to other areas in the running game, it’s going to open up other
tell you: We got to get macaroni and cheese off the table. All players. We just gotta keep being that way.”
right, guys? I’m getting on my soap[box]. It’s just cheese and —Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer rebukes
noodles. It’s not that good. Let’s be honest guys. Everybody Cousins’ concerns. (Sports Illustrated)
here is probably a little lactose [intolerant], so it messes up
our stomachs. And we have to get it off the table. It’s probably MESS WITH THE BILL, GET THE HORNS
one of the most overrated dishes. But my favorite is dressing. JERRY SULLIVAN: “40 years since a team has won a game
I do love dressing. But get macaroni and cheese off the table running the ball that many times and passing that few times.
and it will be a much better Thanksgiving for everybody in Is that embarrassing?”
the house. MICAH HYDE: “What are we doing, bro?”
“I have never liked macaroni and cheese. You know how JORDAN POYER: “I mean what kind of question is that?”
they say “Your taste buds change every seven years, you just Sullivan: “It’s a question. The nation’s going to be criticiz-
gotta … every time I try it it’s the same thing. It’s never going ing you, calling you soft, is it embarrassing?”
to change. It’s never going to get better. All right? I’m almost Poyer: “I think we allowed seven points? 14 points?”
30 now. I’m pretty set in my ways, and it’s disgusting. Get it off Hyde: “14-10? Was that the final score?”
the table. The bathrooms will be less busy and everybody will Poyer: “We made stops when we had to. They had one
have a better day. So if you want to have a good Thanksgiving, big run. They’ve got good backs. They kept coming back to
don’t cook macaroni and cheese. a couple runs. I don’t know how you want us to answer that
“My whole family loves it. My brothers and sisters. My question.”
mom cooks it in a big pan—they know not to put it on my Hyde: “That’s funny. We’ll remember that. I’ll remember
plate, or that’s fighting words. All right? I’m going to have to that.”
fight everybody in the house one by one. And I will wait until —An exchange between reporter Jerry Sullivan of The Ni-
they eat their macaroni and cheese, get sluggish, and then I’m agara Gazette and Buffalo Bills safeties Jordan Poyer and Mi-
going to whoop them.” cah Hyde following Buffalo’s Week 13 loss to the New Eng-
—New England Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon got on land Patriots on Monday Night Football.
his soapbox to deliver an anti-mac-and-cheese diatribe for the
ages. (New England Patriots via YouTube) “This is respect. It’s all about respect. I come here every
single week and answer your questions truthfully, honestly. I
appreciate you guys. Don’t do that. Don’t do that.”
—As Poyer and Hyde left the press conference, Hyde had
some choice words for Sullivan.

“In my day, players answered that kind of question.”

—Sullivan’s response. (Thad Brown, RochesterFirst.com
via Twitter)
xxxvi THE YEAR IN QUOTES

“Where that Jerry Sullivan at? What the f*ck’s he got to “I’ll tell you the reason I kinda said it. How I explain it is
say?” I feel like, kinda saying something like that, you gotta back it
—Buffalo Bills safety Jordan Poyer shouted this as he ran up and so after saying that there’s kinda no other option but to
off the field following Buffalo’s win in the Week 16 rematch go out there and make it.”
with the New England Patriots. (Tim Graham, The Athletic —McPherson confirmed his quote, providing an explana-
via Twitter) tion behind it. (America’s Newsroom via Twitter)

THE YEAR IN ANDY REID CINCINNATI: AT LEAST WE’RE NOT CLEVELAND

“If I could jump, I’d jump.” “We’re doing a great job with our COVID protocols. Fortu-
—Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s reaction to nately, there’s not a lot to do in Cincinnati, so nobody’s going
tight end Travis Kelce’s game-winning overtime touchdown out to clubs and bars and getting COVID every weekend.”
against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. (Nate Taylor, —Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow throws an
The Athletic via Twitter) errant jab at Cincinnati nightlife while discussing the team’s
success following the NFL’s COVID protocols. (Ben Baby,
“If you like chocolate cake and you eat a piece, and then ESPN via Twitter)
you have one dangling in front of your face, you’re probably
going to want to eat that too. Not much is going to stop you, “Joe Burrow said there’s not much to do in Cincinnati, I
so that’s how you feel about the Super Bowl. That is the choco- beg to differ, there’s a Starbucks downtown, a McDonald’s in
late cake with the ultimate frosting. You’re going to try to go Covington, and a O’Charley’s in Tri-County which in fact has
get it if you can, the best you can.” the best complementary bread known to man…”
—Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is on the hunt —Longtime Bengals receiver Chad Johnson offered a re-
for rings and cake this postseason, stringing the two together buttal to Burrow’s claim. (Chad Johnson via Twitter)
in a food analogy only Reid could have come up with. (Megan
Strickland, KSHB 41 News via Twitter) A FAREWELL TO JOHN MADDEN
“Nobody loved football more than Coach. He was football.
“When it’s grim, be the Grim Reaper and go get it.” He was an incredible sounding board to me and so many oth-
—Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid dropped this ers. There will never be another John Madden, and we will
gem to Patrick Mahomes just after the Bills scored with 13 forever be indebted to him for all he did to make football and
seconds left in the AFC divisional round. (Kansas City Chiefs the NFL what it is today.”
via Twitter) —NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. (NFL.com)

THE LEGEND OF McPHERLESS IS BORN “This is a loss that is as big as the legacy that John Madden
“Honestly at the time I had to pee really bad. I’m not gonna created. A legacy of love. Love for family, for football, and for
say I want them to make the field goal, I want our defense to life. I am not aware of anyone who has made a more meaning-
get a good stop, but I was ready to kinda go in at halftime, use ful impact on the National Football League than John Mad-
the bathroom, and come back out. If he missed it, I would just den, and I know of no one who loved the game more.”
go back to my net, get locked in, hit the field goal, then go to “When I think of a person of sports who is worthy of the
the bathroom.” term ‘larger than life,’ I have always thought of John. And I
—Cincinnati Bengals kicker Evan McPherson wasn’t ex- always will.
pecting to kick any field goals with nine seconds before half- “If you knew John, he made your life better. For me he was
time in last week’s game against the Denver Broncos. After a trusted confidant, advisor, a teacher, and above all, a very
Broncos kicker Brandon McManus missed a 51-yard field dear friend. When he walked into the room, it was a better
goal attempt of his own, all Cincinnati needed was five sec- day. When he talked, you listened, and you learned. When he
onds, a 19-yard completion, and a timeout to put McPherson laughed, everyone in the room laughed. And when he got back
in field goal range. His 58-yarder broke the franchise record on the bus to leave, you always wanted more. You were always
for longest field goal made. (Jay Morrison, The Athletic via looking forward to his next visit.”
Twitter) —Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones (DallasCowboys.
com)
“Looks like we’re going to the AFC Championship.”
—During his AFC divisional round postgame press confer-
ence, Joe Burrow revealed that McPherson told the Bengals
this on the sideline just before hitting his game-winning 52-
yard field goal against the Tennessee Titans. (ESPN via Ins-
tagram)
 THE YEAR IN QUOTES xxxvii

“I think we all, probably, set out to try to have a good profes- ULTRA-RARE ACCOLADES
sional career. John had about five of them. He set the standard for Reporter 1: “I think you ended up with more yards than
coaching in his era. They had the best record, best teams, cham- [Patrick] Mahomes had passing yards.”
pionships, and all that. Raiders had a great style of play that was Ja’Marr Chase: “Did I? What’d he have? I don’t think I did
very, I’d say, captivating. He certainly did a lot for the league and that. Ain’t no way.”
the competitiveness of the league. He was a great champion for Reporter 2: “259 to 266.”
minorities and minority scouting. Some of the great players that Reporter 1: “You did.”
they had with the Raiders from the smaller black colleges, he and Chase: “I did? Oh sh*t. Aw, sorry. Excuse my profanity.”
[Al] Davis brought into the organization.” Reporter 1: “Well, you answered my question.”
“Then he moved to broadcasting and, certainly, increased —After setting the single-game rookie receiving record,
the popularity of the game, singlehandedly, by quite a bit. I Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase found out
don’t know how you’d ever measure that, but I think every- that he had also single-handedly out-gained Kansas City
body that liked football enjoyed John’s commentary. A lot of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes during the Bengals’
people who probably didn’t even care about football found Week 17 win. Chase finished the afternoon with 11 receptions
John entertaining and watched football because of him. He on 12 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns. (B/R Grid-
brought a lot of people to the game. He brought a perspective iron via Twitter)
to the game that was very unique. Loved by all.”
—New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick (Pro-
FootballTalk)

THE YEAR IN JOE JUDGE

I have scoured coaching press conferences for quotes for kept improving to work week after week. And on the out-
the last five seasons and I have rarely (if ever) seen a coach side, we were all terrible. But we didn’t care about that
give an answer with more tangents, anecdotes, and statements any of that noise on the outside. We didn’t care about it at
of questionable validity than the extended soliloquy given by all. What do you care about on the inside, what are you
New York Giants head coach Joe Judge after a Week 17 loss doing? They showed up, they fought, they worked. We were
to Chicago. All quotes here come via Giants.com. improving as a team and put things together, and make a
First, Judge was asked about incorporating analytics into run and, you know, ended up winning the championship.”
decision making. (This is a reference to the 2018 New England Patriots,
“Analytics is just a tool. ... You can look at a stat sheet who were 7-2 at the midway point of the season and would
all you want. I promise you if Excel was gonna win football go on to win the Super Bowl. Nobody there was getting
games, Bill Gates would be killing it right now. But you fired.)
have got to take those numbers as a tool and go ahead and “So the fans are—and we go back to the first part, the
factor in how your team’s playing at the time and how the fans are every bit right to ask what you’re asking. 100%.
opponent is as well ... and also the flow of the game.” OK? 100%. I get about a dozen emails a day, all right, six
Then Judge was asked why he believed he could turn the of which ask me exactly what you’re asking, the other six
Giants around, and he proceeded to go on for more than 11 offer full support the other way. OK? To me, both are great.
minutes. Here are the highlights. Both are great. OK? Both are great.”
“You know, we talk inside a lot. OK? And I don’t ever ask “I can tell you we got more players here who are going
for patience from anybody. Let’s get that clear right now. to be free agents next year, all right, who are in my office
All right? And the fans have every right to have an opinion. every day begging to come back. OK? I know that.”
That’s why they’re fans. They have every right.” “(There are players) who we coached last year that still
“You buy a ticket, come to the stadium, you have every calling me twice a week talking about how much they wish
right to boo me going out of the stadium. That’s the way it they were still here and they’re getting paid more some-
is. That’s what we sign up for, right? And it’s New York. It’s where else. OK? So I know we’ve got the right founda-
supposed to be a tough place to be. Certain cities in this tional pieces there. I know we have some players in key
country, they don’t even know if their teams playing today. positions who are guys that you can build with and keep
All right? So you sign up for a job in a city like New York, carrying on. All right? I know we got the right tempera-
you expect to have this. I never shied away from that.” ment. I know we got the right culture in terms of teaching
“Let me tell you something right now, all right, in 2018, the players.”
I was a part of a team who halfway through the season, all (For the record, five of the seven players who had left
right, we were all pretty convinced we were getting fired. the Giants in free agency in the previous offseason were on
We didn’t think we were going to make the playoffs, had no teams that either had clinched a playoff berth or were still
concept of anything was coming, we just showed up and in playoff contention.)
xxxviii THE YEAR IN QUOTES

IT’S A LIVING
“If I don’t get this seventh catch, I have to go get a real “THANK YOU! Throw that last touchdown on someone
job.” else.”
—Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski need- —Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who al-
ed seven catches in a Week 18 game to activate a $1-million lowed Brady’s last career touchdown prior to his initial re-
contract bonus. One catch shy of the bonus, Gronkowski was tirement, is thankful to see Brady back in the game. (Jalen
caught lamenting about what he would do if he fell short of Ramsey via Twitter)
the mark. He finished with seven catches in the game, 55 on
the year. (NFL Films via Instagram) ONE BAD APPLE
“It’s cool big bro! You might get one of these [rings] one
JONATHAN TAYLOR KNOWS THE NUMBERS day, but in the meantime just get better at your craft”
“Just a little kid from Salem, New Jersey, and then you guys —Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman took
allowed me to lead the league in rushing… This is the least I to Twitter to troll Bengals cornerback Eli Apple after he al-
can do. We definitely gonna have more good years to come.” lowed what would eventually be the game-winning touchdown
—Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor thanked in the Super Bowl. Apple previously went after Hardman and
his entire offensive line for helping him lead the league in Tyreek Hill after the Bengals won the AFC Championship
rushing by buying them all Louis Vuitton bags. Game. (Mecole Hardman via Twitter)

“Y’know J.T., I never fancied myself as being a Louis Vuit- CeeDee Lamb: “That’s a big apple to eat”
ton guy, but I am. I’m gonna be rocking the sh*t out of this at Marquise Brown: “Apple Pack gone hit hard in LA”
the airport.” Michael Thomas: “Eli going to Eli”
—Indianapolis Colts center Ryan Kelly’s reaction upon see- —Wide receivers from around the league took to Twitter to
ing the gift. (NFL Films via Instagram) get in on the fun.

ONE GIANT LETDOWN “Applesauce.”

“Honestly, I would have to say yes. Yes it is. I kept thinking —After Cooper Kupp scored the go-ahead touchdown off
during the season that we had hit rock bottom and then each Eli Apple, he ran straight to Robert Woods on the sideline to
week it got a little worse. Honestly, I’m not proud of saying celebrate. Woods had just one word for Kupp. (Jourdan Ro-
this, but if I’m going to be 100% honest, I would have to say drigue, The Athletic via Twitter)
yes.”
—New York Giants co-owner John Mara kept things ex- COOPER KUPP GOES HOLLYWOOD
tremely blunt when asked whether the 2021 season was the “I got a message from a random number with a picture of
most embarrassed he had ever been during his association [Peyton] and I back at the Manning Passing Academy. And I
with the Giants franchise. (NFL.com) was like ‘That’s so weird. Who would have this picture?’ I look
back through the messages and they all line up with certain
“We’ve done everything possible to screw this kid up since events where we’d seen each other. So I think I’ve been ghost-
he’s been here.” ing Peyton Manning for my entire NFL career.”
—New York Giants owner John Mara gives a brutally hon- —Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp just dis-
est assessment of how the team has handled quarterback Dan- covered whose phone number he had been ignoring after be-
iel Jones after announcing his team’s commitment to Jones in coming a Super Bowl champion. (NFL via Instagram)
2022. (Adam Schefter, ESPN via Instagram)
VIVA LA ’VANTE
OFFENSIVE LINE RECRUITMENT 101 “Oh so I’m not punting at all next year huh? Let’s gooooooo”
“I sent him two kegs of beer yesterday.” —Raiders punter AJ Cole’s instant reaction to the Davante
—Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni had a fool- Adams trade doubled as him finding out his 2022 workload
proof plan to coax center Jason Kelce back to the Eagles this got a whole lot lighter. (AJ Cole via Twitter)
offseason. Kelce announced his return to the Eagles with a
video of him tapping said keg. (Dave Zangaro, NBC Sports
Philadelphia via Twitter)

JALEN RAMSEY ESCAPES THE HISTORY BOOKS

“The best QB of all time retired, DANG … he threw his last
TD on me”
—Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whose team
eliminated Brady and the Buccaneers from the playoffs this
year, shared that he allowed Brady’s last career touchdown,
seemingly wearing it with honor. (Jalen Ramsey via Twitter)
 THE YEAR IN QUOTES xxxix

COLE STRANGE AND THE McVAY OF MADNESS “Cisco is playing a little bit more, I believe. I don’t have his
Sean McVay: “[Cole] Strange just went.” numbers in front of me.”
Les Snead: “Oh my! UT Chattanooga to the first round!” —Meyer’s on-the-spot evaluation of safety Andre Cisco
SM: “How ‘bout that! And we wasted our time watching during a postgame conference when asked about the rookie
him thinking he’d be at 104 maybe!” playing more. Cisco played zero defensive snaps that after-
—Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay and gener- noon. (Demetrius Harvey, Big Cat Country via Twitter)
al manager Les Snead held a press conference during their
pick-free first round. Their only real talk of Day 1 prospects “Who’s this 99 guy on the Rams? I’m hearing he might be
came when the New England Patriots selected University of a problem for us.”
Tennessee-Chattanooga’s Cole Strange at 29 overall. The pick —In another exposé on the notorious Urban Meyer head
was so jarring it momentarily halted the press conference. Mc- coaching tenure, it was found that the former Jacksonville
Vay later reached out to both Bill Belichick and Cole Strange Jaguars head coach had very little knowledge of the NFL after
to formally apologize, insisting the comments were taken out making the leap from the college level. Despite conducting a
of context. (Andrew Siciliano, NFL Network via Twitter) “six-month deep dive” on the NFL that included interviews
with former Florida and Ohio State players as well as a study
THE YEAR IN URBAN MEYER of the salary cap, Meyer was apparently unfamiliar with star
“This is the NFL. I don’t know Urban Meyer at all, really, I players around the league such as Rams defensive tackle Aar-
met him the other day, shook his hand before the game and af- on Donald, Seahawks safety Jamal Adams, and San Francisco
ter the game. And his comment to me was, ‘Every week is like 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. (The Athletic)
playing Alabama in the NFL.’ That’s it. Everybody’s capable
of beating everybody in this league.” READ THE ROOM, PAL
—Denver Broncos head coach Vic Fangio on his postgame “What’s up Chiefs Kingdom!!”
conversation with Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Urban “My bad y’all, I’ll hit y’all back later”
Meyer. (Roll Tide Wire) —Kansas City Chiefs safety Deon Bush, who signed with
the team the same day that wide receiver Tyreek Hill was
“I had a better coaching staff at Bowling Green. You guys traded to the Miami Dolphins, picked a bad time to introduce
are f**king terrible.” himself to his new fan base. At least he’s quick at taking a
—An excerpt from Meyer’s alleged berating of the Jack- hint. (My SportsUpdate via Twitter)
sonville coaching staff. (Aaron Wilson, Sports Talk 790 via
Twitter) QUOTE OF THE YEAR
“I own you, all my f*cking life, I still own you, I still own
Reporter: “You’ve been telling us all year that you’ve had you.”
faith in this offensive line. They’re getting their ass handed to —Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was
them every week. What’s going on there? They’re getting paid picked up on television mics screaming this at a crowd of
a lot of money to be better than what they’ve been.” booing Chicago Bears fans after he ran in for a touchdown.
Meyer: “Yeah.” (Yahoo Sports)
—Meyer’s full response when confronted about the offen-
sive line play during Week 14’s 20-0 loss to the Tennessee “Sometimes you black out on the field, in a good way. I
Titans. Trevor Lawrence was sacked three times and the team looked up in the stands in the front row and all I saw was a
combined for a whopping 8 yards on eight carries. (My Sports woman giving me the double bird. I’m not sure exactly what
Update via Twitter) came out of my mouth next.”
—Rodgers reflecting on the moment during his postgame
press conference. (Packers Wire, USA Today)

Compiled by Cale Clinton

 Full 2022 Projections
T he following table lists the mean DVOA projections for all 32 NFL teams. We also list the average number of wins for
each team in our one million simulations, along with how often each team made the playoffs, reached the Super Bowl,
and won the NFL Championship. These projections and simulations assume that Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson
will be suspended for the entire season. They do not include the July 6 trade of Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers.

Full 2022 Projections

Postseason Odds Mean DVOA Projections Schedule
Team Avg Wins Make Reach Win Super Total Off Def ST Average
Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
Playoffs Super Bowl Bowl DVOA DVOA DVOA DVOA Opponent
BUF 10.2 70.4% 18.2% 10.4% 15.9% 1 9.9% 3 -4.7% 4 1.3% 4 0.8% 11
TB 10.0 68.2% 14.9% 8.1% 12.2% 2 15.0% 1 1.8% 21 -0.9% 23 -0.2% 19
PHI 10.0 66.6% 12.3% 6.3% 8.5% 6 7.3% 6 -2.5% 7 -1.3% 30 -3.8% 32
DAL 9.8 63.7% 11.5% 5.9% 7.6% 7 3.8% 11 -2.7% 6 1.2% 5 -2.4% 30
LAC 9.8 62.1% 12.0% 6.4% 10.5% 3 6.8% 8 -4.8% 3 -1.2% 27 -1.0% 23
BAL 9.7 62.3% 12.1% 6.4% 9.6% 5 3.4% 13 -1.3% 11 4.8% 1 -0.7% 22
LAR 9.5 62.1% 11.7% 6.1% 9.6% 4 6.1% 9 -3.8% 5 -0.2% 15 1.3% 9
MIN 9.5 59.7% 10.0% 5.1% 6.9% 10 6.8% 7 0.8% 18 0.8% 7 -1.1% 25
NO 9.4 57.7% 9.5% 4.8% 7.1% 9 -0.5% 18 -6.9% 1 0.7% 8 0.2% 14
GB 9.3 55.5% 9.0% 4.6% 6.3% 11 8.6% 5 0.8% 19 -1.5% 32 0.2% 16
KC 9.0 50.7% 8.2% 4.2% 7.1% 8 11.8% 2 4.2% 30 -0.5% 16 2.1% 3
DEN 9.0 48.7% 6.8% 3.3% 4.6% 12 9.1% 4 3.4% 29 -1.1% 25 -0.1% 18
SF 8.8 48.3% 5.9% 2.7% 1.2% 16 1.5% 16 -0.9% 14 -1.3% 29 -0.5% 21
NE 8.7 45.0% 6.0% 2.9% 2.9% 14 1.8% 15 2.4% 25 3.4% 2 1.1% 10
CIN 8.6 45.0% 6.2% 3.0% 3.9% 13 4.6% 10 0.2% 16 -0.5% 18 1.9% 6
LV 8.5 42.2% 5.1% 2.4% 2.2% 15 3.4% 14 0.5% 17 -0.7% 21 1.4% 8
Postseason Odds Mean DVOA Projections Schedule
Team Avg Wins Make Reach Win Super Total Off Def ST Average
Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
Playoffs Super Bowl Bowl DVOA DVOA DVOA DVOA Opponent
PIT 8.2 38.9% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 17 -4.4% 22 -6.2% 2 -1.0% 24 2.0% 4
MIA 8.2 37.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.2% 18 3.6% 12 2.9% 27 -0.5% 17 2.2% 2
DET 8.0 34.9% 2.9% 1.2% -6.2% 23 -3.9% 21 2.4% 26 0.2% 11 -1.3% 26
IND 7.9 37.0% 3.3% 1.4% -5.6% 22 -3.6% 20 2.0% 24 0.0% 13 -1.0% 24
TEN 7.9 36.6% 3.3% 1.4% -4.6% 19 -5.5% 25 -1.8% 9 -0.9% 22 -0.2% 20
HOU 7.9 36.2% 2.9% 1.2% -7.1% 25 -8.1% 26 -0.7% 15 0.3% 10 -2.2% 29
ARI 7.7 32.1% 2.8% 1.3% -4.9% 21 -0.5% 17 3.3% 28 -1.1% 26 2.3% 1
CHI 7.7 30.2% 2.2% 0.9% -7.7% 26 -9.6% 27 -1.7% 10 0.3% 9 0.0% 17
WAS 7.7 29.6% 2.0% 0.8% -10.1% 29 -11.1% 31 -1.2% 12 -0.2% 14 -2.5% 31
JAX 7.6 32.5% 2.4% 1.0% -8.1% 27 -5.5% 24 2.0% 23 -0.7% 20 -1.5% 27
CLE 7.6 29.3% 2.6% 1.1% -4.9% 20 -4.6% 23 -1.0% 13 -1.3% 31 1.9% 5
ATL 7.5 28.0% 2.0% 0.8% -8.4% 28 -2.3% 19 4.9% 31 -1.2% 28 0.6% 12
NYJ 7.4 26.4% 2.1% 0.9% -6.7% 24 -10.3% 29 -2.4% 8 1.2% 6 1.8% 7
SEA 7.2 24.0% 1.4% 0.6% -12.0% 30 -13.1% 32 1.5% 20 2.5% 3 0.2% 15
CAR 7.1 23.0% 1.3% 0.5% -12.1% 31 -10.3% 30 1.9% 22 0.1% 12 0.3% 13
NYG 6.6 16.4% 0.7% 0.2% -18.4% 32 -10.2% 28 7.6% 32 -0.6% 19 -1.7% 28

xl
 Arizona Cardinals
2021 record: 11-6 Total DVOA: 11.0% (10) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.7 wins On the Clock (0-5): 21%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.6 (8) Offense: 3.2% (15) Postseason Odds: 32.1% Mediocrity (6-8): 42%
Snap-Weighted Age: 27.2 (4) Defense: -8.2% (6) Super Bowl Odds: 2.8% Playoff Contender (9-11): 29%
Average Opponent: 2.7% (3) Special Teams: -0.4% (20) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 2.3% (1) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 8%

2021: A hot start undone by a familiar offensive fade.

2022: A shaky outlook clouds how much the quarterback should be paid.

S ince the advent of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agree-

ment, many teams that have drafted a quarterback early
in the first round have taken similar approaches while that
When we focus on both passing and rushing ability, we
only find six quarterbacks in our data set that fit both crite-
ria: Daunte Culpepper, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, Deshaun
player is on his rookie contract. If a young quarterback per- Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Murray. Unsurprisingly, most
forms well while his salary is locked in below the market rate, of these players came into the league relatively recently, with
the team can invest the cost savings in veterans around him to five of the six starting their careers within the past 10 sea-
supplement the roster and create a more competitive squad. sons. Culpepper might not really belong on this list because he
As shown by recent history, it’s generally a pretty good plan, barely played in his rookie year, but it is worth discussing him
and Arizona has put that method of roster building into action here as a point of comparison (the Vikings made the playoffs
around 2019 top overall pick Kyler Murray. in 1999 but he did not start).
Over the course of Murray’s first contract, Arizona has This list covers almost all prominent dual-threat quarter-
steadily invested more and more into the infrastructure sur- backs of the past 20 years. Patrick Mahomes and Russell
rounding him on offense by trading for expensive veterans, Wilson both produced too much passing DYAR to fall in
drafting wide receivers with early picks, and signing free this range, while Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick were
agents to complement the existing offensive core . One would not quite effective enough as passers to jump into this group.
expect that dropping talented players such as wide receiver Josh Allen’s awful rookie year keeps him out of consideration.
DeAndre Hopkins, tight end Zach Ertz, and center Rodney Justin Herbert has already been too good to qualify here as a
Hudson into an offense piloted by a hotshot young quarter- passer without a massive step back in 2022.
back and an offensive-minded head coach who was personal Year 4 results were mixed for the six quarterbacks in Table
friends with Sean McVay would result in eye-popping num- 1. Culpepper led the league in interceptions in 2002 while pi-
bers. While the team’s results have been a bit mixed, Murray loting an average Minnesota offense that could not make up
finds himself with some pretty solid statistical peers. for both a bottom-five defense and bottom-five special teams.
Murray has produced at an effective level through his first Luck’s 2015 was a down year marred by injury, which served
three seasons in the league, placing him in solid but unspec- as an ominous harbinger of things to come in his career.
tacular company as a passer to start his career. He has accrued Prescott and Watson produced outstanding Year 4 campaigns
nearly 1,800 passing DYAR through his first three years, add- that resulted in top-eight passing offenses for the 2019 Cow-
ing about 180 rushing DYAR. When we look at players with boys and 2020 Texans, and Jackson battled through injury
at least 100 rushing DYAR and 1,500 to 2,100 passing DYAR (much like the rest of the Ravens) during 2021 as Baltimore
through their first three seasons in the league, we are left with was unable to live up to preseason expectations.
an interesting handful of quarterbacks (Table 1). Murray and the Cardinals will obviously be hoping for a

Table 1: Dual-Threat Passers Similar to Kyler

Murray, First Three Seasons, 1983-2021
Three-Year Three-Year Playoff Berths Year 4 Year 4
Player Team Years Starts
Pass DYAR Rush DYAR Led by QB Pass DYAR Rush DYAR
Daunte Culpepper MIN 1999-2001 27 1,729 358 1* 399 106
Andrew Luck IND 2012-2014 48 1,786 315 3 -126 59
Dak Prescott DAL 2016-2018 48 1,789 333 2 1541 71
Deshaun Watson HOU 2017-2019 37 1,956 243 2 1234 -12
Lamar Jackson BAL 2018-2020 37 1,550 230 3 216 66
Kyler Murray ARI 2019-2021 46 1,777 183 1 -- --

1
2 ARIZONA CARDINALS

2021 ARI DVOA by Week

2022 Cardinals Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 KC 7 NO (Thu.) 13 BYE
2 at LV 8 at MIN 14 NE (Mon.) 40%
3 LAR 9 SEA 15 at DEN 20%
4 at CAR 10 at LAR 16 TB (Xmas)
0%
5 PHI 11 SF (Mon./Mex.) 17 at ATL
6 at SEA 12 LAC 18 at SF -20%

-40%

-60%

fourth season similar to those of Prescott and Watson, but for -80%

that to happen, Kliff Kingsbury and company will have to find -100%

a solution for what has been one of the more confusing and
frustrating offensive issues of the past two years: the Cardi-
nals’ offensive disappearing act late in the season.
In both 2020 and 2021, Arizona jumped out to hot starts (such as Earl Thomas getting hurt late in 2016) can cause the
on offense, with Murray dancing around defenders to make whole group to falter.
breathtaking plays with his arm as well as his legs. In each With the offense stumbling during the stretch run, Arizona
year, Murray was included in the midseason MVP conversa- has had to rely on its defense to try to drag the team across
tion thanks to the Cardinals’ impressive early performances, the finish line. While it has not been perfect, the defense has
only for the team to come crashing down to earth in the sec- clearly been the superior unit in each of the past two years.
ond half of each season. Arizona’s weighted offensive DVOA That group has had to pick up the slack as the offense ran out
was negative for both 2020 and 2021, meaning that down of steam, relying on studs such as outside linebacker Chandler
the stretch the Cardinals played like a below-average unit. Jones and safety Budda Baker to spearhead a unit that fin-
That isn’t what you pour all those resources into the offense ished in the top 10 in defensive DVOA in both 2020 and 2021.
to achieve, and the midseason offensive declines are a major Keeping with the “add veterans while you have a young quar-
reason that all the Cardinals have to show for Murray’s career terback” theme, the Cardinals signed J.J. Watt and Markus
to this point is a single appearance in the wild-card round. Golden heading into 2021. Watt sustained an injury in Week 7
There are a handful of potential explanations for why Ari- that kept him out for the remainder of the regular season, but
zona’s offense has faded late in the year, and it is unclear ex- Golden played a major role for Arizona as the Robin to Jones’
actly which one holds the most weight. Some observers have pass-rush Batman, racking up 11 sacks on the season.
called Kingsbury’s offense stagnant, raising questions about That all sounds great. So, shouldn’t the Cardinals be ex-
his long-term viability as the Cardinals’ head coach. It is also pecting to take another step forward in 2022? After all, they
easy to point to the injury to DeAndre Hopkins late in 2021 traded for Murray’s old college teammate Marquise Brown on
as a major factor in the team tailing off; when Hopkins went draft night after the wide receiver expressed interest in leav-
down, the Cardinals were forced to use undrafted rookie An- ing Baltimore. Arizona then followed that up by picking Trey
toine Wesley frequently in Hopkins’ normal spot at the left McBride, who received the 2021 Mackey Award as the top
outside receiver across from seasoned veteran A.J. Green. collegiate tight end, in the second round.
Arizona likes to employ static formations (the Cardinals had Well, not exactly. Arizona has a number of forces working
the second-lowest pre-snap motion frequency in the league) against its continued success, even as Murray continues to
with receivers that often line up in the same spots, allowing develop. Brown does not appear to be a substantial improve-
the team to operate at a fast tempo. However, this comes with ment over what Arizona had last year in Christian Kirk who
the cost of being more predictable in terms of personnel and left in free agency, even though Brown had a bit of a breakout
play calling, allowing defenses to have a much better idea of from a volume perspective thanks to the Ravens increasing
what is coming based on the down, distance, and formation. their passing frequency in 2021. Kirk, not Hopkins, led the
With Hopkins and a fully healthy Murray on the field, Ari- Cardinals in receiving DYAR thanks to his availability over
zona can rely on talent advantages to move the ball down the the course of the full 2021 season, and he effectively matched
field efficiently. However, when the receivers are not quite Hopkins from an efficiency standpoint, finishing at 23.2% re-
as dominant, the offensive line springs some leaks, and Mur- ceiving DVOA against Hopkins’ 23.9%, even though he had
ray is not able to operate at full scrambling capacity, the Ari- to maintain that efficiency on an extra 37 targets.
zona offense loses a lot of its potency. Murray has sustained It’s easy to suggest that a healthy Hopkins would adequate-
nagging injuries at midseason in both 2020 and 2021, which ly replace the departed Kirk, but we know already that getting
likely explains part of the team’s offensive decline over the a full season from Hopkins in 2022 will not be possible due
course of each season. Much like the Seahawks’ fairly simple to his six-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.
yet dominant defenses of their heyday, when the high-end tal- Hopkins will also be 30 this season, so there is an increased
ent is present, it looks incredible, but slippage in a key area risk of age-related decline. Arizona is bringing back Ertz and
 ARIZONA CARDINALS 3

Green for 2022, but with each of them even older than Hop- port system on the opposite side of the ball in 2022.
kins, there is real potential for a fall-off in production from all After trading for Chandler Jones in 2016, Arizona saw one
three veterans. of the better outcomes in recent memory among teams that
On the youth front, the team received very little from 2021 traded a high draft pick for a player who would need a sub-
second-round pick Rondale Moore at receiver in his rookie stantial contract extension. The Cardinals signed Jones to a
year, as most of his production stemmed from schemed touch- five-year deal for big money before the 2017 season, and he
es either behind or just past the line of scrimmage; there is has absolutely been worth it over the course of the contract.
room for growth in Year 2, but it would require a substantial During his six-year Cardinals tenure, Jones averaged nearly
leap and/or change in role for that to happen. Moore repre- 12 sacks per season, and that number is brought down by a
sents the second smaller receiver the Cardinals have drafted in 2020 season that was limited to just five games. Jones’ deal
Round 2 in a three-year span, and he will hopefully have a bet- expired after 2021, and he departed in free agency for the
ter fate than Andy Isabella, who has failed to make much of an greener pastures of Las Vegas.
impact as a pro. The aforementioned rookie tight end McBride With the longtime leader of Arizona’s pass rush no longer
performed well in college and projects as a potential starter as around, it would not be surprising if defensive coordinator
a complete tight end (i.e., not just a receiver), but tight ends Vance Joseph cranked up the team’s blitz frequency to try to
historically have struggled to make major impacts in their first mitigate some of that loss. The Cardinals were already a blitz-
seasons. If Arizona is expecting substantial production from heavy unit in 2021, incorporating a variety of rush looks to cre-
McBride in 2022, they seem likely to be disappointed. With ate chaos upfront for opposing offensive lines. Arizona finished
all the talented pass-catchers at Arizona’s disposal, it does not in the top five across the league in rates of rushing five players,
appear that McBride needs to play a big part as a rookie, but rushing six or more players, and sending defensive backs on
a few injuries to the thirtysomethings would thrust him into blitzes. They will likely need to keep bringing the heat if they
the spotlight. want to make up for Jones’ absence moving forward.
At running back, James Conner was effective in short-yard- Jones is the biggest name that left Arizona’s defense in the
age and goal-line situations in 2021, bouncing back from a offseason, but he certainly wasn’t the only contributor who
pair of injury-plagued seasons in 2019 and 2020 to emerge as departed. The team also lost multi-year starters in the front
the preferred back in the Cardinals’ rotation after Chase Ed- seven in defensive lineman Corey Peters and inside linebacker
monds missed time due to injury. At age 27, Conner received Jordan Hicks, both of whom played key roles for the Cardi-
a healthy contract from Arizona to cement his status as the nals’ strong run defenses of recent years. Arizona finished
starter, but with Edmonds off to Miami in free agency, there sixth in run defense DVOA in 2019 and 2021, which were the
is a real risk given Conner’s history and the nature of the run- two seasons where the trio of Jones, Peters, and Hicks was
ning back position that he may not hold up over a full season all available for the majority of the year, and now all three
with a workhorse back’s load of touches. players are gone. Hicks’ replacement is already on the roster
With so many aging veterans at the offensive skill posi- thanks to Arizona investing first-round picks in inside line-
tions, it would be easy to overlook the offensive line in this backers in both 2020 and 2021, and the Cardinals drafted a
discussion, but guess what? They are getting old as well. Ari- pair of defensive ends—Cameron Thomas (San Diego State)
zona signed Will Hernandez to a one-year free-agent deal to and Myjai Sanders (Cincinnati)—in the third round this year
play right guard, and he will be the youngest projected starter to help offset losing Jones and Peters. That said, it is some-
on the line for the 2022 Cardinals at age 27. Left tackle D.J. what unreasonable to expect two third-round rookies to fill the
Humphries has been around seemingly forever and is starting shoes of Jones and Peters right away, even if they do end up
to creep up there in years, and the remainder of the starters having good careers.
will all be at least 32 in Week 1. Beyond the personnel losses, the Cardinals excelled when
It may seem repetitive to run through the whole list of Ari- defending the run in short-yardage situations and finished in
zona’s offensive players, but it underscores the point that an the top five in takeaway rate in 2021. Performance in those ar-
offense that has already struggled to sustain success late in eas tends to regress to the mean from year to year, and that can
the year for multiple seasons running has serious risk of age- lead to some real variability in the high-leverage situations
related or injury-related decline in every position group other that often decide games. As more and more teams become
than quarterback. That is the position the Cardinals find them- comfortable going for it on fourth down, this seems likely to
selves in as they are forced to decide whether or not to extend be even more magnified moving forward because there will
Murray at the pricey going rate for productive quarterbacks be more opportunities for a team’s short-yardage run defense
coming off their rookie contracts. to either shine or scuffle. With some regression likely even
It is clear that a lot of Arizona’s offensive success stems before accounting for personnel turnover, Arizona’s defense
from what Murray can do to extend plays and create positive does not look like nearly the same unit that provided a strong
gains out of nothing; this alone makes a compelling argument backstop for its past offensive stumbling during the stretch
for why the Cardinals should pay him handsomely. However, runs of recent seasons.
the Murray-led offense, even when paired with an excellent Add it all up, and Arizona is at a crossroads this season. Se-
defense, has only produced the one playoff appearance in a attle may have traded Russell Wilson away, but the Cardinals’
tough division, and Murray is about to lose some of that sup- other divisional foes remain strong. For a team with a signifi-
4 ARIZONA CARDINALS

cant number of question marks already, the added elements of tenders, it’s safe to say that he’ll be getting the contract offer
the surrounding competition and a tough schedule will make from Arizona that he desires. We just do not see that playoff
it even more of an uphill battle for the Cardinals to return to run as very likely at all, and as a result we may have to put
the playoffs. up with another offseason of rumors about deleted Instagram
And with Murray already engaging in some public saber- posts. For the sanity of the football-watching public and Car-
rattling in an attempt to get paid the going rate for a star quar- dinals fans in particular, let’s hope that last part does not come
terback, this team could look a whole lot different this time to pass.
next year. If Murray is able to elevate the Cardinals to the
playoffs as more than cannon fodder for the true NFC con- Carl Yedor

2021 Cardinals by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at TEN W 100% 38 13 416 248 2 52% 21% -33% -3% Total DVOA 3.2% 15 -8.2% 6
2 MIN W 64% 34 33 474 419 -2 6% 10% 14% 9% Unadjusted VOA 6.6% 13 -8.1% 6
3 at JAX W 100% 31 19 407 361 3 38% 23% -11% 3% Weighted Trend -3.3% 17 -6.1% 9
4 at LAR W 91% 37 20 465 401 2 33% 42% 12% 4% Variance 7.7% 18 3.3% 7
5 SF W 85% 17 10 304 338 0 37% 8% -27% 2% Average Opponent -1.2% 11 1.5% 8
6 at CLE W 99% 37 14 352 290 3 25% 2% -21% 2%
7 HOU W 100% 31 5 397 160 0 26% -6% -35% -3% Passing 24.8% 9 -2.3% 5
8 GB L 75% 21 24 334 335 -3 26% -4% -26% 4% Rushing -11.8% 22 -16.6% 6
9 at SF W 92% 31 17 437 337 3 51% 46% -10% -5%
First Down -6.9% 23 0.7% 14
10 CAR L 0% 10 34 169 341 0 -87% -75% 16% 3%
Second Down -0.4% 17 -9.1% 6
11 at SEA W 89% 23 13 413 266 0 11% 11% -12% -13%
Third Down 25.9% 4 -22.4% 3
12 BYE
13 at CHI W 100% 33 22 257 329 4 29% 0% -26% 3% First Half -0.3% 15 -3.5% 13
14 LAR L 4% 23 30 447 356 -2 -9% -17% 1% 9% Second Half 6.7% 15 -13.5% 5
15 at DET L 12% 12 30 398 338 0 -43% -26% 19% 2%
16 IND L 30% 16 22 378 346 0 -3% 6% -5% -13% Red Zone -9.2% 24 -10.0% 8
17 at DAL W 51% 25 22 399 301 1 24% 21% -5% -2% Late and Close -5.8% 22 -14.5% 5
18 SEA L 1% 30 38 305 431 1 -36% -16% 11% -9%
19 at LAR L 0% 11 34 183 375 -2 -65% -63% 9% 7%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 8-8 6.1 6.0 295 361 -4 -8.2% 19 -18.1% 29 -15.4% 3 -5.5% 28 73.6 32 34.5 15 28.6 1 28.1 2 26.5 6
2018 3-13 2.8 2.7 225 425 -12 -38.4% 32 -41.8% 32 -2.4% 12 1.0% 11 59.8 29 32.5 15 26.1 25 27.2 4 26.2 9
2019 5-10-1 6.0 7.3 361 442 -1 -3.1% 17 3.2% 13 4.0% 20 -2.4% 26 45.6 19 39.4 20 27.3 6 26.7 9 26.0 10
2020 8-8 9.1 8.0 410 367 0 3.6% 13 -2.4% 19 -6.6% 10 -0.6% 19 34.8 15 60.9 28 27.2 10 26.9 6 26.5 6
2021 11-6 10.6 9.8 449 366 +12 11.0% 10 3.2% 15 -8.2% 6 -0.4% 20 40.0 12 52.4 26 28.0 5 26.4 15 27.4 2

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

ARI Offense ARI Offense vs. Opponents ARI Defense ARI Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 56% 5.6 2.3% 33% Base 16% 3.8 -8.2% 59% Base 29% 5.1 -9.0% 11 61% 5.9 -0.3%
12 20% 4.7 -9.3% 48% Nickel 68% 5.7 3.6% 41% Nickel 58% 6.0 -2.5% 12 20% 4.9 -21.1%
10 14% 8.3 56.0% 36% Dime+ 16% 8.0 53.5% 17% Dime+ 1% 2.6 -12.8% 21 8% 6.1 -22.2%
13 3% 4.5 25.3% 83% Goal Line 2% 1.0 -39.9% 22 3% 5.4 14.9%
21 2% 4.2 -3.7% 77% Big 9% 5.4 -27.2% 13 2% 3.2 -38.5%
20 2% 9.2 57.6% 16% 612 2% 2.9 -30.8%
 ARIZONA CARDINALS 5

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 37% 23 Form: Single Back 79% 24 Rush 3 6.3% 10 4 DB 29% 7 Play Action 31% 6
Runs, first down 53% 5 Form: Empty Back 11% 9 Rush 4 59.2% 30 5 DB 58% 19 Offensive Motion 31% 31
Runs, second-long 20% 29 Form: Multi Back 10% 13 Rush 5 26.3% 4 6+ DB 1% 29 Avg Box (Off) 6.23 31
Runs, power sit. 67% 9 Pers: 3+ WR 73% 7 Rush 6+ 8.2% 5 Man Coverage 28% 19 Avg Box (Def) 6.41 23
Runs, behind 2H 29% 16 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 26% 24 Edge Rusher Sacks 56.3% 15 CB by Sides 86% 6 Offensive Pace 30.07 7
Pass, ahead 2H 45% 20 Pers: 6+ OL 2% 21 Interior DL Sacks 22.5% 21 S/CB Cover Ratio 21% 27 Defensive Pace 31.15 18
Run-Pass Options 21% 3 Shotgun/Pistol 91% 2 Second Level Sacks 21.3% 10 DB Blitz 14% 5 Go for it on 4th 1.74 2

We have never seen anything like the rash of aborted snaps that the Cardinals dealt with in 2021. Arizona had 18 aborted
plays, including two punts and an extra point. Carolina was second in the league with 10. The high this century belonged to
the 2001 Giants at 14 followed by the 2006 Raiders at 13. What’s even more remarkable is that the Cardinals recovered every
single one of these fumbles. Overall, the Cardinals recovered 23 of 25 fumbles on offense, which is why they had the highest
overall fumble recovery rate in the league at 69%. (There were 27 fumbles when Arizona was on defense, tied for the league’s
highest total, and the Cardinals recovered 14 of them.) 🏈 Arizona led the NFL in using four or more wide receivers for the
third straight year, although this rate went down from 20% of all plays in 2020 to 15% in 2021. No other team used four or more
wide receivers on more than 9% of plays. Arizona had an outstanding 8.3 yards per play (56.0% DVOA) from 10 personnel.
🏈 Like their division rivals in Seattle, Arizona had a strange combination of being high in run/pass ratio but near the bottom of
the league in average men the offense faced in the box. The Cardinals had a league-high 59% of their handoffs come from light
boxes (six or fewer). They averaged 4.9 yards on these plays (2.7% DVOA) compared to 3.2 yards on other handoffs (-11.8%
DVOA). 🏈 Arizona was fantastic on running back screens. They used them 35 times (only Tennessee had more) with a
league-high 9.0 yards per pass and 74.6% DVOA. 🏈 The Arizona offense was first in DVOA on third-and-long but just 12th
on third down with less than 7 yards to go. 🏈 The Cardinals ranked 23rd in offensive DVOA at home but fifth on the road.
We mention this purely for curiosity’s sake, as these kinds of home/road splits rarely carry over from year to year. Arizona’s
splits were partly explained by Colt McCoy’s starts, as McCoy had two good games on the road and a terrible performance at
home against Carolina. 🏈 Arizona was tied for an average of just 7:52 of game time in 2021, the lowest figure in the league.
They led for an average of 33:45 per game, fourth in the league. 🏈 The Cardinals didn’t send quite as many big blitzes (six
or more) as the previous seasons, but they were still very good on these plays. Arizona allowed just 2.6 yards per play with
-31.8% DVOA when blitzing six or more. The Cardinals have put up defensive DVOA better than -20.0% on big blitzes in four
of the past five years; in the other season, 2019, they were still better than average. 🏈 The Arizona defense used man cover-
age much less often than in 2020, dropping from 44% of passes (second) to 28% of passes (19th). 🏈 The Cardinals were
tied for eighth last year with 129 penalties. It was the third straight year they have ranked among the 10 most-penalized teams.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
K.Murray 882 15.6% 512 3490 6.8 5.4 69.4% 24 10 C.Kirk* 286 23.2% 101 75 982 13.1 3.0 5 74%
C.McCoy 131 7.1% 105 700 6.7 6.1 74.7% 3 1 A.J.Green 148 7.5% 92 54 848 15.7 3.4 3 59%
C.Streveler* -41 -80.7% 11 19 1.7 3.7 66.7% 0 0 D.Hopkins 191 23.9% 64 42 572 13.6 3.3 8 66%
R.Moore -10 -14.8% 64 54 435 8.1 8.1 1 84%
A.Wesley 38 1.8% 32 19 208 10.9 3.2 3 59%
Rushing M.Brown -14 -13.9% 146 91 1008 11.1 4.3 6 62%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc C.Blake -31 -55.7% 9 4 25 6.3 0.5 0 44%
J.Conner 88 0.5% 202 752 3.7 15 2 52% Z.Ertz 15 -4.5% 81 56 574 10.3 4.5 3 69%
C.Edmonds* 109 12.9% 116 592 5.1 2 0 58% M.Williams 74 57.6% 17 16 193 12.1 7.8 1 94%
K.Murray -90 -32.8% 80 396 5.0 6 10 - D.Harris* -23 -61.2% 6 3 10 3.3 4.3 0 50%
E.Benjamin 3 -6.3% 34 118 3.5 1 0 44% S.Anderson 38 18.8% 19 16 165 10.3 7.2 1 84%
R.Moore 28 -10.8% 18 76 4.2 0 0 - C.Edmonds* 21 -6.0% 53 43 311 7.2 7.5 0 81%
C.McCoy 2 -9.3% 11 46 4.2 0 1 - J.Conner 166 62.4% 40 38 375 9.9 10.2 3 95%
J.Ward 1 -5.6% 9 33 3.7 0 0 44% E.Benjamin 14 17.7% 7 6 42 7.0 7.7 0 86%
D.Williams 93 5.1% 144 558 3.9 6 0 58% D.Williams 179 42.4% 57 47 452 9.6 9.3 2 82%
6 ARIZONA CARDINALS

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
D.J. Humphries LT 29 16/16 1082 11 6.5 26 6 Justin Pugh LG 32 14/13 801 3 1.0 6 3
Kelvin Beachum RT 33 15/15 948 7 0.5 10 5 Rodney Hudson C 33 12/12 798 0 1.0 2 4
Josh Jones RG/RT 25 17/12 852 12 5.5 23 6 Sean Harlow LG 27 15/5 441 4 1.0 4 6
Max Garcia* RG/C 31 15/11 808 3 2.5 11 10 Will Hernandez RG 27 17/17 1048 8 4.5 17 13

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.61 4.12 22 74% 4 18% 8 1.30 8 0.97 9 8.8% 9 50 8.4% 26 27.7% 6 15.0% 27 31
2020 4.16 3.91 30 66% 16 19% 25 1.08 27 0.74 16 7.4% 4 29 5.4% 8 24.7% 15 10.8% 11 27
2021 4.14 3.93 26 70% 13 17% 15 1.16 23 0.62 16 9.2% 8 39 6.5% 15 26.0% 15 12.5% 8 23
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.65 (26) Left Tackle: 4.18 (20) Mid/Guard: 4.01 (22) Right Tackle: 4.26 (14) Right End: 2.74 (32)

Arizona’s aging offensive line is anchored by longtime starter D.J. Humphries at left tackle, and while he was fairly solid in
the run game in 2021, his pass protection left a bit to be desired. Some of his 6.5 sacks allowed may be a function of quarterback
Kyler Murray scrambling around to make plays, but with a cap hit near $20 million, Arizona needs Humphries to rank higher
than 36th among tackles in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. 🏈 Justin Pugh served as the primary starter at left guard and
paired with veteran trade acquisition Rodney Hudson at center to stabilize the interior line. Both Pugh and Hudson ranked in
the top five in snaps per blown block at their respective positions. That said, Pugh and Hudson will be 32 and 33, respectively,
when the season starts, meaning it may be downhill for this duo soon. Pugh took snaps at center during mandatory minicamp
when Hudson had an “unexcused absence.” 🏈 Speaking of old offensive linemen, Kelvin Beachum also put together a
strong season for Arizona at right tackle; in his two years since escaping the AFC purgatory of the Jaguars and Jets, Beachum
has been quite effective for the Cardinals. He will be back for another year in 2022. 🏈 The younger players the Cardinals
tried to cycle through at right guard were not nearly as successful. Josh Jones, a third-round pick from 2020, saw the most time
there over the course of the season, but by the end of the year he was losing snaps to Max Garcia. The Cardinals and Giants
essentially swapped Garcia for former second-round pick Will Hernandez in free agency, with Hernandez signing in Arizona
while Garcia headed to New York. Hernandez and Jones should compete for the right guard spot entering 2022. 🏈 Sean
Harlow filled in at guard and center when Pugh and Hudson missed time with injuries and did not embarrass himself, which is
all you can really ask of a backup. 🏈 Arizona also selected two guards late in the 2022 draft in Lecitus Smith (Virginia Tech,
sixth) and Marquis Hayes (Oklahoma, seventh), but neither should be expected to play right away.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Zach Allen 25 DE 15 685 52 6.9% 18 41 12 2 43 77% 19 2.5 42 4.0 11 13 2
Leki Fotu 24 DT 17 372 21 2.5% -- 20 7 2 18 94% -- 1.2 -- 0.0 0 2 2
Corey Peters* 34 DT 14 363 25 3.6% 87 16 5 2 24 63% 77 2.7 56 0.0 0 2 1
Jordan Phillips* 30 DE 9 284 24 5.3% 56 20 4 3 18 78% 15 2.4 39 3.0 1 7 2
Michael Dogbe 26 DE 16 263 27 3.4% -- 19 3 2 24 71% -- 1.9 -- 1.0 1 3 0
Rashard Lawrence 24 DT 11 219 11 2.0% -- 9 0 0 11 82% -- 1.7 -- 0.0 0 4 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Chandler Jones* 32 OLB 15 824 44 5.9% 37 36 23 6 26 81% 14 1.2 7 10.5 15 25 3
Markus Golden 31 OLB 16 682 48 6.0% 34 34 18 11 24 75% 33 2.7 55 11.0 9 23 0
J.J. Watt 33 DE 7 341 18 5.1% 51 18 9 4 15 100% 1 0.7 2 1.0 9 14 3
Devon Kennard 31 OLB 15 265 26 3.5% -- 20 10 3 20 80% -- 1.4 -- 0.0 2 6 2
 ARIZONA CARDINALS 7
Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Jordan Hicks* 30 ILB 17 1054 121 14.3% 30 55 18 12 66 50% 62 5.1 81 4.0 1 5 34 56% 22 4.6 9 5 0
Isaiah Simmons 24 ILB 17 1005 108 12.7% 39 51 20 14 55 47% 71 5.1 82 1.5 2 9 42 52% 32 6.9 43 7 1
Zaven Collins 23 ILB 17 220 28 3.3% -- 20 7 3 16 94% -- 1.8 -- 0.0 0 0 7 71% -- 2.1 -- 3 0
Nick Vigil 29 OLB 16 719 84 9.5% 67 41 13 8 48 65% 17 3.4 20 1.0 2 9 24 42% 58 7.3 52 1 1
Ben Niemann 27 MLB 17 557 53 6.2% 80 18 7 7 28 39% 82 4.9 80 1.0 0 5 19 37% 67 8.5 65 1 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.22 4.17 14 57% 4 22% 5 1.29 24 0.74 16 22.4% 1 40 7.0% 16 30.5% 15 15.4% 15
2020 4.39 4.44 18 58% 3 20% 9 1.38 27 0.71 16 12.5% 17 48 7.5% 8 25.5% 14 14.6% 12
2021 4.60 4.22 17 59% 6 22% 4 1.49 31 0.85 27 19.1% 2 41 6.7% 15 22.4% 30 11.6% 29
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.84 (12) Left Tackle: 3.54 (6) Mid/Guard: 4.51 (23) Right Tackle: 4.16 (14) Right End: 3.61 (9)

With Chandler Jones off to Las Vegas, outside linebacker Markus Golden will have to carry a lot of the load for the Cardinals’
pass rush. He had a good deal of success playing across from Jones in 2021, but he may not be able to keep up that level of
production without Jones as the offense’s primary concern. A healthy year from J.J. Watt could help Golden find advantageous
matchups consistently, but Watt has only played two full seasons since 2015. 🏈 Veteran outside linebacker Devon Kennard
should play an expanded role in 2022, but third-round rookies Cameron Thomas (San Diego State) and Myjai Sanders (Cincin-
nati) will also fight for playing time. Thomas is a bit of a tweener for Arizona’s scheme as he does not have traditional 3-4 de-
fensive end size. Sanders will fit better as a sub-package pass-rusher early in his career as he needs to add more strength to hold
up against the run effectively at the NFL level. 🏈 Veteran inside linebacker Jordan Hicks was a salary-cap casualty, which
means 2021 first-round pick Zaven Collins will have to step into a full-time role after receiving inconsistent playing time as a
rookie. Collins looked like a complete linebacker prospect at Tulsa: strong taking on blocks in the run game with pass coverage
experience from playing safety in high school. He looks to be on a similar timetable as 2020 first-round pick Isaiah Simmons,
who was mostly a part-time player in Year 1 before playing the vast majority of defensive snaps in Year 2. 🏈 Arizona rotated
their interior defensive linemen pretty heavily in 2021, with Zach Allen leading that position group in snaps. Allen is mostly
a run-stuffer but can provide a little bit of juice rushing the passer. 🏈 Leki Fotu, Michael Dogbe, and Rashard Lawrence
return as the rotational pieces surrounding Watt and Allen. Fotu and Lawrence primarily handled the nose tackle role a year
ago, serving as effective run-stopping space-eaters in a relatively smaller sample of playing time. Dogbe should be used more
to give Watt and Allen a rest when needed.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Budda Baker 26 SS 17 1037 105 12.4% 20 39 16 16 54 37% 35 7.0 38 16 4.2% 71 12.9 44% 60 11.3 71 7 3
Jalen Thompson 24 FS 17 987 127 15.0% 5 57 17 11 67 49% 15 6.4 30 40 11.1% 20 11.1 53% 45 6.9 34 7 3
Byron Murphy 24 CB 16 967 76 9.5% 27 27 12 8 13 23% 72 7.1 57 66 18.6% 52 10.5 50% 57 7.3 46 12 4
Marco Wilson 23 CB 14 748 52 7.4% 58 14 3 3 9 22% 74 9.3 71 66 24.1% 12 10.2 39% 79 7.9 52 4 0
Robert Alford* 34 CB 13 580 41 6.3% -- 11 8 4 11 0% -- 12.5 -- 45 21.2% -- 10.3 58% -- 6.3 -- 4 1
Antonio Hamilton 29 CB 17 312 33 3.9% -- 13 6 2 9 44% -- 8.6 -- 26 22.7% -- 11.6 58% -- 5.6 -- 4 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 27 15.3% 27 -3.3% 12 30.2% 31 7.7% 23 19.2% 27 28.2% 32 31.7% 29
2020 9 4.1% 20 10.3% 23 -7.7% 10 19.6% 29 3.8% 22 0.2% 15 17.5% 30
2021 5 -24.9% 3 15.7% 26 18.5% 28 -19.0% 6 10.8% 20 -27.0% 2 -3.6% 18

Strong safety Budda Baker took on the leadership mantle for the Arizona secondary in 2021, and his reputation for superla-
tive play likely deterred opposing quarterbacks from looking his way in coverage. Baker was one of the least-targeted qualify-
ing safeties, but when teams did go after him, he gave up some big plays, allowing 11.3 yards per pass. 🏈 Safety Jalen
Thompson enters the final season of his rookie contract in position to earn a nice payday as he will only be 25 at the start of the
2023 season. Thompson took a step forward in run defense in 2021, finishing with a 49% run stop rate, and his ability to cover
tight ends and slot receivers in the intermediate area of the field alongside Baker gives defensive coordinator Vance Joseph a lot
of flexibility when calling plays. 🏈 Third-year corner Byron Murphy played a mixture of slot and outside corner for Arizona
as he tried to help fill the cornerback void left by Patrick Peterson’s departure, and he was the team’s clear best option at the
8 ARIZONA CARDINALS

position. Fourth-round rookie Marco Wilson was the primary starter opposite Murphy. Day 3 draftees should not normally ex-
pect to start right away, and Wilson’s performance lends credence to that idea, as he posted the second-worst coverage success
rate among qualifying corners in 2021. 🏈 Entering 2022, Wilson will be competing with journeyman Antonio Hamilton
to start at the other outside corner position opposite Murphy when the team is in two-cornerback looks. Hamilton has a strong
special teams reputation; as a cornerback, he has 7.9 yards allowed per pass and a 52% success rate with three different teams
over the last three seasons. When the team moves to nickel, Murphy will likely slide inside, allowing all three to be on the field
together. 🏈 Veteran Breon Borders was signed off the Tennessee practice squad late in the season and provides depth. He
has been on six different rosters over the past three years, combining for 8.2 yards allowed per pass and a 55% success rate. 🏈
2021 seventh-round pick James Wiggins (Cincinnati), and 2022 seventh-round pick Christian Matthew (Valdosta State) will fill
backup roles in the defensive backfield.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -2.4% 26 0.4 17 0.6 14 -4.5 30 -9.8 30 1.4 10 1.9 15
2020 -0.6% 19 -5.8 26 6.5 3 -4.0 23 3.2 10 -2.8 22 11.8 5
2021 -0.4% 20 -1.5 17 3.4 11 -1.4 17 -1.9 22 -0.9 19 5.6 7

Arizona’s special teams unit has been below average throughout coordinator Jeff Rodgers’ tenure in charge of the group,
and 2021 was no different. 🏈 Andy Lee has been punting for the Cardinals since 2017. His 2021 campaign was below
average but not so much so that he would stick out as a major negative. Lee will be back for his age-40 season in 2022. 🏈
The Cardinals signed veteran kicker Matt Prater to a two-year deal ahead of 2021, and he was more or less average at age 37,
producing an above-average season on kickoffs but a below-average season on field goals and extra points. Prater will also be
back on the roster for 2022, and he can take solace in the fact that he will not be the oldest player on the team with Lee around.
🏈 Rookie wide receiver Rondale Moore served as the primary punt and kick returner for the Cardinals in 2021 but was un-
derwhelming in that role. Eno Benjamin helped out on kickoffs and performed more or less equivalently. Arizona’s three-year
trend of unimpressive performance in the return game suggests that there may be some systematic issues here. Moore seems
like a leading candidate to play a large role in the return game again in 2022.
 Atlanta Falcons
2021 record: 7-10 Total DVOA: -29.4% (30) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.5 wins On the Clock (0-5): 23%
Pythagorean Wins: 4.7 (28) Offense: -17.1% (28) Postseason Odds: 28.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 43%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.6 (15) Defense: 11.3% (30) Super Bowl Odds: 2.0% Playoff Contender (9-11): 27%
Average Opponent: -0.3% (20) Special Teams: -1.0% (22) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.6% (12) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 7%

2021: The worst seven-win team in NFL history.

2022: Sometimes you have to step backwards to move forwards.

G oing 7-10 is one of the most dangerous things a football

team can do. Seven wins can fool you.
Arthur Smith’s first season as Falcons head coach saw At-
nies on the dollar just three weeks after Smith said that he an-
ticipated Ryan being on the team for 2022. The Falcons didn’t
end up with Watson. They didn’t end up with Ryan. They ended
lanta go 7-10. Now, seven wins is obviously not a good season, up with a $40.5-million dead cap number for Ryan, the largest
but it’s also not obviously a bad one. It was a three-win im- in NFL history. Nearly a third of their cap is taken up by players
provement from 2020, after all. Atlanta stayed competitive for who will not play a down for the Falcons this season, massively
the majority of the season, staying within one game of .500 in hamstringing their ability to field a competitive team.
11 out of 18 weeks and not really fading out of the playoff race And now we’re going to argue that this was a good thing.
until after Christmas. They were 7-2 in one-score games; even The 2022 Falcons would be better if Ryan was still their quar-
though they had some fairly clear talent deficiencies, they found terback, but something had to give sooner or later. Extending
ways to turn close games into victories when they hung around. Ryan in 2018 made sense for a player two years removed from
You could call them competitive or feisty or scrappy as you an MVP campaign, but Ryan hasn’t seen double-digit DVOA
squint through your red-and-black-colored glasses. in three years. It soon became necessary for the Falcons to
We call them the worst seven-win team in NFL history. constantly tinker with his contract just to field a roster, with
Despite the fact that the Falcons were finding ways to win his 2019 extension beginning a spiral that kept pushing money
football games, their underlying statistics were terrible. They further and further into the future, setting up the dire straits At-
occupied the last slot in our DVOA ratings for all but two lanta found themselves in. The Falcons cap situation was so bad
weeks between the start of the season and Week 16, and never this offseason that they had to extend both Jake Matthews and
rose above 30th at any point. They had the underlying statisti- Grady Jarrett just to be able to sign their draft class. This would
cal profile of a four- or five- win team. It feels very strange be questionable if the Falcons were serious contenders, but as
to refer to the Atlanta Falcons as lucky, but there’s really no a team that was punching well above its weight in 2021, with
other way to describe their 2021 season, squeaking out win a team needs list that basically read “one of everything,” it was
after win over terrible teams and backup passers and getting simply unsustainable. Even if they had managed to swing for a
blown out every time they faced serious opposition. Seven trade for Watson, the resulting loss of draft picks and cap space
wins were a mirage. It was an inflated resume for a team with wouldn’t have allowed them to actually build around him, and
zero presence on the line of scrimmage, significant skill posi- even if you’re fully onboard with Watson’s talent, we last saw
tion woes, and voids at every level of defense.
Put it all together and you have a disaster. We now have Table 1. Worst 7-Win Teams
DVOA going back to 1981. At -29.4%, the 2021 Falcons had
the lowest DVOA of any seven-win team in our database (Ta- by DVOA, 1981-2021
ble 1).
These nine other teams that have won seven games with a Year Team W-L DVOA W-L Y+1
DVOA Next Winning
Y+1 Season
-20.0% DVOA or lower have something else in common, too.
Every single one of them needed a change at coach or quar- 2021 ATL 7-10 -29.4% — — —
terback—usually both –before they next reached the playoffs. 1996 ARI 7-9 -29.1% 4-12 -22.6% 1998 (2 years)
We would love to take some sodium pentothal to the Falcons 2010 SEA 7-9 -24.3% 7-9 -2.4% 2012 (2 years)
brain trust to figure out what their plans truly were this offsea- 2007 DET 7-9 -24.3% 0-16 -45.2% 2011 (4 years)
son. Their lack of cap space and holes around the roster made 1990 IND 7-9 -22.7% 1-15 -49.2% 1992 (2 years)
their rumored pursuit of Deshaun Watson a questionable idea 1981 HOU 7-9 -21.8% 1-8 -47.6% 1987 (6 years)
even just from an on-field perspective. And their dalliance with 2007 CAR 7-9 -21.1% 12-4 18.2% 2008 (1 year)
Watson directly led to them first delaying restructuring Matt 1989 SEA 7-9 -20.6% 9-7 4.0% 1990 (1 year)
Ryan’s contract, and ultimately alienating Ryan enough to the 1995 TB 7-9 -20.2% 6-10 -11.4% 1997 (2 years)
point where the Falcons had to trade him to the Colts for pen- 2018 WAS 7-9 -20.1% 3-13 -26.9% Not yet (4+ years)

9
10 ATLANTA FALCONS

2021 ATL DVOA by Week

2022 Falcons Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%
60%
1 NO 7 at CIN 13 PIT
40%
2 at LAR 8 CAR 14 BYE
3 at SEA 9 LAC 15 at NO 20%

4 CLE 10 at CAR (Thu.) 16 at BAL (Sat.) 0%

5 at TB 11 CHI 17 ARI -20%
6 SF 12 at WAS 18 TB -40%
-60%
-80%
him leading a 4-12 team in Houston. -100%
Getting rid of Ryan almost certainly makes the Falcons -120%

worse in 2022. The dead money from Ryan, Julio Jones, and
Dante Fowler meant that Atlanta couldn’t really make mean-
ingful additions for this year’s roster. They have had to make
do with veterans on low-cost contracts, cast-off repair jobs much of Mariota since then, but he was respectable in his very
from other franchises, and a smattering of draft picks. What limited playing time, showing some zip on his passes and life
they have achieved, however, is freedom. Even if they had in his legs. A game-manager type with plus mobility is far
continued to push money in the future and overextended from the worst thing in the world, and Mariota has shown real
themselves, they would have been hard-pressed to compete success in the past when put in a play-action-heavy system
with the Buccaneers or Saints in the division. Their ceiling with the ability to get him into space to use his athleticism.
was “maybe a lucky wild-card slot.” By biting the bullet on Is it likely that he has cleaned up the mental mistakes and the
Ryan now, the Falcons free themselves up for 2023 to actively inconsistent accuracy that got him benched in Tennessee? No,
rebuild the team. They cut in line ahead of the Buccaneers and but it’s more than worth rolling the dice on him; he’s not the
Saints, both of whom are massively overextended to keep their worst starter in the division by any stretch of the imagination.
current runs of success going. When Tom Brady finally retires And if he doesn’t work out, he’s basically free to release after
(for good) and the Saints’ cap situation explodes, they’ll have this season. No harm, no foul.
to go through the same process Atlanta is starting now. Atlanta also spent a third-round pick on Desmond Ridder.
It’s not wild to think that Atlanta could be clear division Ridder was the most put-together quarterback in the class,
favorites in a year or two if they handle the post-Ryan wilder- with four years of starting experience at the University of Cin-
ness correctly. In 2023, they’re either going to have a legiti- cinnati and significant dual-threat ability. He is a sharp pocket
mate starting quarterback, $60 million in cap space, or both. passer who has proven he can consistently execute pro con-
Their long-term future is brighter now than it was in Febru- cepts and deliver throws to all three levels. He doesn’t have
ary, even if it means crawling through some muck in the short the same ceiling as some of the other prospects, lacking elite
term. We doubt that this was Plan A for Atlanta—Ryan surely arm strength, but he’s the most likely of the rookie passers
would have been dealt earlier in that case, and a true rebuild to be able to provide solid play right off the bat. The odds
likely would have seen Grady Jarrett cut as well. But even of either a retread backup or a third-round pick solving the
if they stumbled into this accidentally in March, the Falcons quarterback problem in the long term are low, but they’re not
seem to finally be on the right path out of the decaying situa- zero. Both Mariota and Ridder have legitimate upside. And if
tion they have been in for half a decade. neither Mariota nor Ridder work out, the Falcons have made
All that’s well and good, but that still leaves a little matter zero commitments to either player going forward and will
of the 2022 season to get through first. It’s going to be painful. likely have a high draft pick in a much better-regarded quar-
The Falcons entered the offseason basically needing to up- terback class. They have avoided handcuffing themselves to
grade anything and everything. Once you exclude Ryan, you one player just because they could and have given themselves
have maybe seven starting positions where the Falcons were options as they go forward in the rebuild.
set, and that’s being a little generous along the offensive line. And because they didn’t use either their draft capital or their
We’re damning them with faint praise here, but considering limited cap space solving the quarterback position, Smith and
their lack of resources, they did a solid job fleshing out the general manager Terry Fontenot were able to tackle many of
roster. As our own Derrik Klassen put it, the Falcons are “try- their other needs in the draft and free agency. The philoso-
ing their darndest to be a serious team,” which already puts phy seems to have been to grab as many warm bodies as they
them up over the Panthers in the division. could and throw them at the problem, seeing what sticks and
Atlanta wisely did not use the eighth overall pick to reach who to keep around in 2023. Not all of the moves will work,
for a quarterback they didn’t truly believe in. Instead, they and there isn’t a single position group that is set. But they did
went out and got two solid lottery tickets without long-term put together some intriguing pieces and, if you squint, you can
commitments. Marcus Mariota reunites with Smith after two see the bones of the next competitive Falcons team here. At
years of rehabbing his career in Las Vegas. We haven’t seen the very least, they’re likely better off than you might expect,
 ATLANTA FALCONS 11

considering all the doom and gloom we spread about their and Allgeier also give Atlanta options in short-yardage situa-
situation entering the offseason. tions. The Falcons ranked 32nd in power success last season
Atlanta’s skill positions were in shambles even before Cal- as the offensive line couldn’t get a push and Davis couldn’t
vin Ridley’s suspension for gambling. With Russell Gage create on his own. An improvement from disastrous to just
leaving town as well, the Falcons needed three new receivers bad would provide significant dividends.
and a second tight end to run Smith’s system. Perhaps slightly It would also help if the offensive line could hold its ground,
confused by the assignment, the Falcons went out and got but the Falcons ranked 29th in snaps per blown run block and
themselves a basketball team. Kyle Pitts (6-foot-6) is joined dead last in snaps per blown pass block. The Falcons dealt with
by first-round pick Drake London (6-foot-4), ex-Raider Bryan this by keeping the same five starters from last year in place.
Edwards (6-foot-3), ex-Bengal Auden Tate (6-foot-5), and ex- You can’t improve everything in one offseason, but when it
Titan Anthony Firkser (6-foot-2). Should the NFL decide that comes to the offensive line, it does feel like the Falcons spent
the Super Bowl this year will be decided by a dunk contest, time repainting the walls when the foundation still needed work.
the Falcons are in as good a shape as anyone. On the defensive side of the ball, things look better the fur-
London struggled separating at USC, but his size and vertical ther away from the line of scrimmage you get. AJ Terrell had
leaping ability make him a potential contested-catch machine at a phenomenal sophomore season. He put up insane numbers,
the next level. His huge catch radius should be a boon for either with yardage allowed and success rates we haven’t seen since
quarterback, giving them an impressive margin of error. He’ll the heyday of Darrelle Revis. Reasons for Terrell’s success
be asked to take a heavy workload as the top receiver from Day were twofold. One, he’s a very good football player, which
1. In theory, he’ll be paired with Edwards, another contested- helps. And two, the rest of the Atlanta secondary was so ter-
catch bully who became expendable in Las Vegas after the Da- rible there was almost never a reason to try to challenge Ter-
vante Adams trade. Edwards had a few head-turning moments rell. Why fight the best cover corner in the division when Fa-
for the Raiders but was never going to see the field for them as bian Moreau is right there? Atlanta ranked 28th with a 48.5%
long as Adams was around. He still has some untapped poten- DVOA when opponents threw the ball to players lined up
tial for the Falcons to exploit. But Edwards kind of looks like wide, but that dropped to a dead-last 70.8% if you exclude
just a less-promising version of London, so the Falcons might plays where Terrell was in primary coverage. As such, Atlanta
experiment with the speedy Damiere Byrd as the No. 2 receiver made it a priority to give Terrell some much-needed assis-
just to give a different dimension to the passing attack. Either tance this offseason, bringing in veterans Casey Hayward and
way, the third “receiver” is going to be Pitts. Only two teams Dean Marlowe. Hayward in particular is a very nice pickup.
used more multi-tight end sets than Atlanta did last year, and He’s no longer the same player he was in San Diego, but he’s
now Smith gets to reunite with Firkser. Firkser and Jonnu Smith still a very valuable contributor in a zone defense like Atlanta
made for a dynamic tight end duo in Tennessee, and we get to likes to run. With him, Terrell, and the better-than-you-think
see that same dynamic in Atlanta but with an upgrade for the Isaiah Oliver, the Falcons have the best cornerback group in
tight end split wide. the division. When one of those three corners were listed in
With Pitts, London, and Edwards all challenging corner- primary coverage last season, their teams put up a combined
backs on the outside, the Falcons are going to have physical defensive DVOA of -19.6%. To take the title of best second-
mismatches over opposing secondaries. This gives the Fal- ary in the NFC South from the Saints, they’ll need some of the
cons’ receivers one skill they can take advantage of, which is disappointing young safeties to step up, but regardless, this
one more skill than they had by the end of last season. is the strength of your 2022 Falcons team—and a legitimate
The theme of throwing bodies at a problem in the hopes strength at that, not just something being the best by default.
that some stick continues in the backfield. Cordarrelle Patter- Unfortunately, there’s only so long a good secondary can
son was the highlight of Atlanta’s offense in 2022 as he was cover everybody, and the Falcons were getting no pass pres-
used effectively as an offensive weapon for the first time in sure whatsoever last season. The 2021 Falcons recorded 1.1
his career. Patterson has much more value as an average run- sacks per game, the fifth-worst average since the 1970 merger.
ning back who can catch extremely well for his position than Their 18.3% pressure rate was the worst for any team since
as a below-average wide receiver who can run extremely well 2013. Both T.J. Watt and Robert Quinn had more sacks as in-
for his position. Patterson and Pitts combined allow the Fal- dividuals than the Falcons had as a team. This front seven
cons to show multiple different looks with the same personnel needed an immediate talent infusion in the worst way.
packages, which is always a bonus. So the Falcons used three of the first 100 picks in the draft
Patterson is not going to be able to carry the inside load, to grab pass-rushers Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone
however, and Mike Davis was a flop last season. Instead, and athletic middle linebacker Troy Anderson. They brought
Atlanta is going to try to supplement Patterson with Damien Lorenzo Carter over from the Giants in free agency and
Williams and Tyler Allgeier. It’s not particularly exciting, but signed Rashaan Evans and Nick Kwiatkoswki in the ongo-
Williams has played consistently well when given opportuni- ing attempts to replace Deion Jones. That’s a lot of player
ties and Allgeier was BackCAST’s third-best back in the class. movement for one offseason. Add in the secondary shuffling
This should be better than the units that limped along to the and Oliver’s return from injury and only four of Atlanta’s 12
two worst rushing DVOAs in franchise history over the past primary defensive starters from 2021 are projected to start in
two seasons. Again, better than you might expect. Williams 2022. That will bring with it growing pains.
12 ATLANTA FALCONS

The pain is worth it when the original situation was so bad. sum of its parts in front of the secondary.
Atlanta ranked 30th in defensive DVOA last season, so change “There may be short-term pain,” Fontenot said this offsea-
for change’s sake is likely to bring some positive results if only son. “But I see a light at the end of the tunnel. If we bring in the
from reversion to the mean. Carter, Ebiketie, and Malone have right dudes made of the right stuff, we’re going to go out there
significantly more potential than the duo of Dante Fowler and and beat some people.” He was referring to the aftermath of the
Steven Means had. Atlanta managed to get simultaneously Ryan trade, but it does quite nicely sum up the entire Falcons
younger and more athletic around the edges. None of the re- outlook for 2022. The Falcons are pulling the Douglas Adams
placements come without their own issues—most of Carter’s strategy for getting out of a bind: they’re spending the year dead
2021 production came in one four-week span, Ebiketie didn’t for tax reasons. We fully expect them to be one of the worst
play a full season until his fifth year in college, and Malone is teams in the league this season while they’re working through
undersized for the NFL—but all have had more actual produc- the painful stages of the rebuild. It’s the price they have to pay
tion than any Atlanta edge rusher had last season. for multiple poor contract decisions in recent years.
The rest of the front seven feels more like shuffling deck Nonetheless, there are things here for Falcons fans to watch
chairs. Losing Foye Oluokun hurts, even if letting him go was with excitement. It’s not all doom, gloom, and hopelessness.
the right decision considering how much Jacksonville over- The Falcons aren’t simply bad across the board. They have
paid for him. Evans has experience in Dean Pees’ system but pockets of talent that could blossom going forward. Kyle Pitts,
hasn’t shown much in recent years. Kwiatkowski is more of a legitimately strong secondary, a rookie quarterback with po-
a useful depth piece than an ideal starter and Anderson is still tential, Kyle Pitts, young prospects coming off the edge, and
an athlete trying to find his position. The situation looks even of course Kyle Pitts. This season will be about seeing which
grimmer on the interior line, where the Falcons lost Tyeler bits of potential become actual talent. Which of the new faces
Davison, Jonathan Bullard, and John Cominsky, then replaced are worth keeping around when the Falcons actually have the
them with nobody. They’re counting on Ta’Quon Graham and resources to replace them? If enough of Atlanta’s offseason
Marlon Davidson to take steps forward, which is a dodgy moves work, they’ll claim the throne of “most annoying bad
proposition at best. team to play against”—not good enough to seriously chal-
If you had to pick two positions to improve, cornerback and lenge for a playoff spot, but at least they will make you work
edge rusher are probably your top two spots on the defense, so for your win week in and week out.
it’s good that this is where the Falcons look like they’re com- There’s very little proven talent here, and there are going
ing out the best. But there was just so much work to do, and so to be long stretches of the season where pain is the predomi-
few resources to work with, that it feels like Atlanta’s rebuild nant feeling for Falcons fans. But even though they have some
could only get halfway started. There are a bunch of players fairly clear talent deficiencies, they could well find ways to
we like here, but as complementary pieces, and solid depth, turn close games into victories when they hang around. You
and interesting rotational prospects. There’s a lot of sizzle and might be able to call them competitive, or feisty, or scrappy.
very little steak in the front seven. If the defense is going to be Or at the very least, better than you might expect.
any better than dire, it’s going to be a credit to Pees standing
on his head schematically to create something bigger than the Bryan Knowles

2021 Falcons by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 PHI L 0% 6 32 260 434 0 -77% -49% 24% -3% Total DVOA -17.1% 28 11.3% 30
2 at TB L 0% 25 48 348 341 -2 -57% -46% 3% -8% Unadjusted VOA -18.9% 29 10.1% 29
3 at NYG W 42% 17 14 296 346 0 -32% -4% 27% -2% Weighted Trend -14.2% 25 8.4% 29
4 WAS L 3% 30 34 374 412 0 -41% 11% 28% -25% Variance 10.5% 26 2.6% 2
5 NYJ W 73% 27 20 450 230 -1 -6% 8% 6% -8% Average Opponent -2.5% 3 -2.5% 28
6 BYE
7 at MIA W 51% 30 28 397 413 0 4% 23% 25% 6% Passing -3.5% 25 20.2% 29
8 CAR L 2% 13 19 213 332 -1 -49% -42% 7% 1% Rushing -25.5% 31 0.7% 29
9 at NO W 25% 27 25 366 376 1 -16% 16% 18% -14%
First Down -21.4% 29 8.8% 25
10 at DAL L 0% 3 43 214 431 -2 -107% -71% 15% -21%
Second Down -9.5% 23 5.0% 22
11 NE L 0% 0 25 165 308 -3 -71% -79% -12% -3%
Third Down -20.4% 26 25.6% 30
12 at JAX W 96% 21 14 332 357 1 -1% -2% 1% 1%
13 TB L 2% 17 30 380 425 0 -16% -19% -4% -1% First Half -11.6% 24 9.4% 29
14 at CAR W 94% 29 21 318 334 2 2% 8% 17% 11% Second Half -23.3% 30 13.2% 29
15 at SF L 0% 13 31 275 397 0 -66% -38% 50% 22%
16 DET W 89% 20 16 254 338 0 11% 0% -4% 8% Red Zone 1.4% 15 20.2% 29
17 at BUF L 80% 15 29 265 351 2 40% 22% -8% 9% Late and Close 2.8% 17 12.5% 26
18 NO L 4% 20 30 257 369 -3 -18% -19% 10% 10%
 ATLANTA FALCONS 13

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 10-6 9.1 9.0 353 315 -2 5.0% 14 8.5% 9 2.3% 17 -1.2% 19 10.4 4 4.5 2 27.4 8 25.7 25 26.5 5
2018 7-9 7.8 7.7 414 423 +1 -2.2% 17 8.9% 9 12.5% 30 1.4% 10 32.2 13 43.7 26 28.1 4 26.4 13 26.7 3
2019 7-9 7.5 7.9 381 399 -5 -1.9% 15 2.3% 15 1.4% 17 -2.9% 28 15.5 5 37.7 19 27.7 4 26.4 13 26.3 8
2020 4-12 7.5 6.7 396 414 +3 -3.6% 17 -3.1% 21 -0.1% 14 -0.7% 20 13.1 2 35.0 15 27.8 2 26.1 22 26.4 9
2021 7-10 4.7 4.7 313 459 -6 -29.4% 30 -17.1% 28 11.3% 30 -1.0% 22 17.4 1 30.7 11 26.5 17 26.8 11 26.2 14

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

ATL Offense ATL Offense vs. Opponents ATL Defense ATL Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 32% 5.6 -20.2% 27% Base 24% 4.6 -12.6% 62% Base 25% 5.4 2.8% 11 59% 6.0 17.9%
12 24% 5.3 -8.2% 31% Nickel 62% 5.4 -10.1% 32% Nickel 74% 5.9 14.7% 12 19% 5.7 0.8%
21 22% 4.5 -16.3% 48% Dime+ 13% 6.0 -21.1% 8% Dime+ 0% 1.0 -79.9% 21 6% 5.2 5.0%
22 13% 6.1 14.5% 43% Goal Line 1% 0.3 -35.0% 56% Goal Line 0% 1.3 -2.7% 611 3% 5.4 22.1%
13 6% 4.1 -20.6% 55% 10 2% 3.4 -60.7%
612 2% 6.4 27.5%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 38% 19 Form: Single Back 75% 28 Rush 3 7.7% 8 4 DB 25% 12 Play Action 28% 15
Runs, first down 54% 2 Form: Empty Back 7% 22 Rush 4 71.1% 13 5 DB 74% 4 Offensive Motion 47% 11
Runs, second-long 21% 28 Form: Multi Back 18% 4 Rush 5 18.1% 18 6+ DB 0% 31 Avg Box (Off) 6.57 10
Runs, power sit. 44% 32 Pers: 3+ WR 33% 31 Rush 6+ 3.1% 22 Man Coverage 30% 14 Avg Box (Def) 6.64 10
Runs, behind 2H 29% 17 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 45% 2 Edge Rusher Sacks 50.0% 19 CB by Sides 88% 4 Offensive Pace 30.35 11
Pass, ahead 2H 55% 6 Pers: 6+ OL 1% 22 Interior DL Sacks 11.8% 30 S/CB Cover Ratio 35% 4 Defensive Pace 30.00 3
Run-Pass Options 3% 29 Shotgun/Pistol 53% 27 Second Level Sacks 38.2% 2 DB Blitz 10% 17 Go for it on 4th 0.89 25

Atlanta was last in the NFL in frequency of throwing to both the No. 2 receiver and “other receivers,” both 10%. They tied
Miami and Baltimore to lead the league in frequency of throwing to tight ends (29%) and also led the NFL by throwing 26%
of passes to running backs (including Cordarrelle Patterson). 🏈 Atlanta was the offense least likely to run out of shotgun
formations, with just 9% of those plays being handoffs to running backs. 🏈 This was the third straight year the Falcons were
particularly poor on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage; in 2021, they ranked 30th with -32.3% DVOA on these passes.
🏈 The Falcons ranked No. 2 for the second straight year in what percentage of their sacks came from the second level. 🏈
For the third straight year, the Falcons faced a low rate of passes in the middle of the field, just 17% compared to a league aver-
age of 22%. This isn’t an issue of how the official scorer in Atlanta marks pass direction, since the Falcons offense was above
average in throwing to the middle (27%).
14 ATLANTA FALCONS

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
M.Ryan* 268 -4.3% 599 3660 6.1 4.6 67.4% 20 12 R.Gage* 102 1.4% 94 66 771 11.7 3.8 4 70%
J.Rosen -127 -210.4% 11 19 1.7 5.5 18.2% 0 2 O.Zaccheaus 66 2.9% 53 31 406 13.1 3.1 3 58%
C.Ridley -14 -16.0% 52 31 281 9.1 2.9 2 60%
T.Sharpe* -6 -14.8% 37 25 229 9.2 2.7 0 68%
C.Blake* -31 -55.7% 9 4 25 6.3 0.5 0 44%
B.Edwards 112 10.4% 59 34 571 16.8 5.6 3 58%
D.Byrd 43 1.6% 38 26 329 12.7 4.5 1 68%
K.Hodge -40 -31.0% 27 13 157 12.1 2.8 0 48%
Rushing K.Pitts 120 8.8% 110 68 1026 15.1 4.6 1 62%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc H.Hurst* -23 -18.5% 31 26 221 8.5 3.4 3 84%
C.Patterson 25 -4.7% 153 609 4.0 6 1 45% L.Smith* -9 -17.3% 11 9 65 7.2 3.4 1 82%
M.Davis* 6 -7.5% 138 503 3.6 3 2 43% P.Hesse 10 16.1% 6 5 43 8.6 4.2 0 83%
M.Ryan* -95 -61.0% 30 84 2.8 1 5 - A.Firkser 6 -4.9% 43 34 291 8.6 3.3 2 79%
W.Gallman* -18 -26.3% 28 104 3.7 0 0 32% C.Patterson 188 31.7% 69 52 548 10.5 7.4 5 75%
Q.Ollison 14 6.9% 21 105 5.0 1 1 52% M.Davis* -72 -34.9% 58 44 259 5.9 7.0 1 76%
K.Smith 5 1.7% 9 31 3.4 0 0 56% K.Smith 19 17.1% 10 9 56 6.2 4.2 0 90%
D.Williams 30 8.7% 40 164 4.1 2 0 50% Q.Ollison -18 -62.5% 6 4 12 3.0 1.8 0 67%
M.Mariota 8 -3.3% 13 87 6.7 1 1 - D.Williams -26 -35.1% 23 16 103 6.4 6.8 1 70%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Chris Lindstrom RG 25 17/17 1037 2 0.0 14 5 Matt Hennessy C 25 17/17 991 5 2.0 16 15
Jake Matthews LT 30 17/17 1032 6 3.0 18 8 Kaleb McGary RT 27 16/16 989 3 6.0 24 9
Jalen Mayfield LG 22 16/16 992 9 9.5 36 13 Germain Ifedi RT 28 9/7 413 5 2.0 7 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.73 3.98 24 65% 16 21% 27 1.08 25 0.52 27 11.9% 27 50 6.6% 13 32.1% 24 15.0% 26 27
2020 3.90 4.12 26 57% 26 17% 16 1.02 30 0.55 26 12.6% 29 41 6.7% 18 26.0% 19 14.0% 22 30
2021 3.87 4.16 20 50% 32 18% 25 1.17 20 0.42 25 13.9% 29 40 7.0% 20 29.8% 28 17.6% 32 39
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.87 (23) Left Tackle: 2.86 (32) Mid/Guard: 4.31 (14) Right Tackle: 4.65 (6) Right End: 5.40 (7)

With Arthur Smith taking over the offense, the Falcons went from 21st to second in run rate on first downs. It was surprising,
then, to see them also ranking last in run/pass ratio for short-yardage (power) situations. Perhaps that ratio is explained by the
Falcons’ 50% success rate on these runs, which was the worst in the league since the 2019 Panthers fell to 43%. 🏈 Jake
Matthews’ raw total of blown blocks is misleading. He had more than twice the number of blown pass blocks as run blocks, but
also about twice as many pass snaps. Matthews was much more solid protecting Matt Ryan’s blind side than he was opening
up running lanes, one reason the Falcons were dead last in ALY off left tackle. 🏈 Kaleb McGary’s 84 blown passing blocks
over the last three seasons are the most in the league. That’s less misleading. 🏈 Jalen Mayfield was in last place in snaps per
blown block among all linemen with at least 500 snaps. He also led all guards with 9.5 sacks allowed and was atop the league
with 20 to 25 quarterback hits allowed, depending on your charter of choice. 🏈 Matt Hennessy led all centers in blown
blocks last season; his blown block rate on runs nearly doubled from 2020. 🏈 At least Chris Lindstrom is good! He took to
Arthur Smith’s scheme like a fish to water, plowing over defenders and putting up his best season to date. Allowing zero sacks
on that Falcons line is worthy of some kind of medal.
 ATLANTA FALCONS 15

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Grady Jarrett 29 DT 17 865 60 6.5% 27 40 9 8 51 67% 58 2.6 55 1.0 12 24 1
Tyeler Davison* 30 DT 12 358 30 4.6% 67 18 9 1 27 63% 76 3.0 72 0.0 0 1 0
Ta'Quon Graham 24 DE 13 310 15 2.1% -- 8 3 1 14 57% -- 2.5 -- 0.0 1 3 0
Marlon Davidson 24 DT 11 270 22 3.7% -- 14 5 1 18 67% -- 3.2 -- 1.0 0 1 0
Anthony Rush 26 DT 12 267 19 2.9% -- 14 4 1 17 82% -- 2.1 -- 0.0 1 2 0
Mike Pennel* 31 DT 10 250 21 3.9% -- 11 1 1 20 55% -- 4.2 -- 0.0 0 4 0
Jonathan Bullard* 29 DE 9 224 22 4.5% -- 14 5 0 21 62% -- 3.3 -- 0.0 1 2 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Steven Means* 32 OLB 14 692 43 5.6% 40 23 5 1 35 60% 83 3.2 71 0.0 2 8 0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji 24 OLB 16 527 32 3.7% 77 25 8 5 20 70% 54 2.5 39 1.0 1 7 1
Dante Fowler* 28 OLB 14 509 37 4.9% 57 26 16 10 23 70% 60 2.0 26 4.5 4 19 1
James Vaughters* 29 OLB 10 211 7 1.3% -- 4 1 2 5 60% -- 3.8 -- 1.0 3 2 0
Lorenzo Carter 27 OLB 14 617 55 7.1% 17 34 18 5 34 53% 91 2.9 64 5.0 3 20 2

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Foyesade Oluokun* 27 ILB 17 1149 198 21.4% 1 80 23 10 121 44% 79 4.6 75 2.0 5 5 33 52% 34 7.4 53 6 3
Deion Jones 28 ILB 16 1071 143 16.4% 15 74 27 19 80 58% 44 4.6 74 2.0 2 11 36 42% 57 6.6 40 6 0
Brandon Copeland* 31 ILB 16 339 39 4.5% -- 23 5 2 28 57% -- 4.2 -- 0.0 3 5 3 33% -- 3.7 -- 2 0
Mykal Walker 25 ILB 17 193 32 3.5% -- 15 6 8 15 53% -- 4.7 -- 0.0 1 3 11 45% -- 8.5 -- 4 1
Rashaan Evans 27 ILB 12 445 59 10.1% 59 25 6 6 29 55% 52 2.8 7 0.0 0 3 14 71% 3 6.0 33 2 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.25 4.29 19 64% 15 22% 6 1.24 22 0.77 18 15.4% 8 28 5.8% 28 27.0% 27 13.8% 22
2020 3.87 4.16 9 63% 10 22% 3 1.31 22 0.39 4 16.6% 3 29 5.5% 23 24.7% 18 10.7% 27
2021 4.17 4.67 29 81% 32 13% 29 1.21 18 0.36 2 10.8% 26 18 3.8% 32 18.2% 32 9.1% 32
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.10 (15) Left Tackle: 5.17 (29) Mid/Guard: 4.75 (29) Right Tackle: 4.49 (21) Right End: 4.33 (16)

The Falcons’ 81% power success rate allowed was the worst we have seen since the 2019 Colts. They allowed 34 rushing first
downs on third-and-short, more than any other team in the league. 🏈 Grady Jarrett was in the bottom 25 among defensive
tackles in yards per play, with his average tackle coming 2.6 yards downfield. That’s what happens when you’re cleaning things
up for everyone else on the line. 🏈 Marlon Davidson was the only other Falcons lineman to record a sack. Atlanta’s 3.8%
adjusted sack rate was the franchise’s worst since 2015. 🏈 Davidson and Ta’Quon Graham ended up as the clear starters next
to Jarrett once the dust cleared after Atlanta’s spring cleaning along the line. The Falcons need both of them to step up as neither
has gone beyond back-end rotational status to this point. 🏈 All five of Lorenzo Carter’s sacks, as well as both forced fumbles
and the majority of his quarterback hits, came in the last month of the season. The Falcons are betting his slow start to 2021 was
due to recovering from the Achilles injury that cost him most of 2020. If so, he’ll be a significant upgrade to the pass rush. 🏈
Deion Jones was a liability last season—sixth-most broken tackles, bottom-15 in pass coverage success rate, and bottom 50 in
run stop rate among linebackers. Jones missed the entire offseason with shoulder surgery, and The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz wrote in
May that a cut was “likely imminent,” but it had not yet happened by the time we went to press. 🏈 Rashaan Evans has never
really lived up to his first-round draft status, ending up as a healthy scratch during Tennessee’s playoff run last season. He has
a history of solid tackling, leading the league in broken tackle rate in 2020, but he is, at best, an inconsistent two-down player.
He’s looking for a career reset in Atlanta. 🏈 Arnold Ebiketie (Penn State, second round) didn’t play a full season until his
fifth year in college. It was worth the wait; he bulked up and led the team with 9.5 sacks, 18 TFLs, and two blocked kicks in 12
games. 🏈 DeAngelo Malone (Western Kentucky, third round) is undersized as an edge rusher, making up for it with speed and
athleticism. He probably caps out as third-down pass-rush specialist unless he can bulk his frame up. He has five years of college
experience, which means he’s fairly polished but probably doesn’t have that much more room to grow, all things considered. 🏈
Troy Andersen (Montana State, second round) was a high school safety in 2016, a college running back in 2017, a quarterback in
2018, a part-time linebacker in 2019, and a full-time linebacker in 2021. You don’t need to watch a second of his tape to realize
that a) he’s an athletic stud, and b) he still has lots of work to do as he finds his role on the field. If he develops, he’ll be one of
the best linebackers in the league in space. And if not, there are four or five positions he hasn’t tried yet.
16 ATLANTA FALCONS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Duron Harmon* 31 SS 17 1072 69 7.5% 65 18 9 3 30 23% 64 8.3 55 21 5.5% 65 11.3 43% 62 9.2 57 5 2
Fabian Moreau* 28 CB 16 1037 72 8.3% 46 30 14 9 19 32% 58 5.5 32 72 19.5% 43 11.4 49% 64 7.3 47 11 0
AJ Terrell 24 CB 16 1024 97 11.1% 8 39 16 10 29 28% 64 6.5 45 62 17.0% 68 12.0 69% 2 3.3 1 16 3
Erik Harris 32 FS 12 703 69 10.6% 35 26 5 11 26 42% 28 6.3 27 31 12.4% 10 10.8 48% 52 7.5 44 8 0
Jaylinn Hawkins 25 FS 14 462 22 2.9% -- 10 5 2 11 45% -- 5.7 -- 14 8.5% -- 13.1 57% -- 9.7 -- 3 2
Darren Hall 22 CB 14 282 28 3.7% -- 13 7 5 2 100% -- 3.0 -- 23 22.9% -- 10.7 39% -- 8.8 -- 3 0
Richie Grant 25 SS 16 275 31 3.6% -- 16 7 7 17 59% -- 4.1 -- 16 16.3% -- 8.5 56% -- 6.5 -- 2 0
Shawn Williams* 31 SS 6 163 21 6.4% -- 8 0 3 18 44% -- 6.7 -- 3 5.2% -- 7.0 67% -- 6.7 -- 0 0
Casey Hayward 33 CB 17 1092 55 6.1% 74 27 10 3 16 63% 7 3.4 7 47 11.5% 79 17.2 55% 37 8.4 63 9 1
Dean Marlowe 30 FS 16 700 67 8.1% 63 15 5 9 29 24% 59 7.7 47 21 8.3% 38 11.8 48% 53 8.8 54 2 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 25 4.0% 18 29.4% 30 20.7% 27 15.2% 27 16.4% 25 -11.0% 6 -7.9% 13
2020 19 13.8% 26 13.2% 26 -5.4% 11 14.6% 28 6.9% 24 10.7% 23 -4.8% 13
2021 29 13.0% 26 33.3% 31 7.6% 23 20.6% 32 17.6% 24 9.0% 22 -9.6% 11

AJ Terrell was the John Fogerty of the Atlanta secondary; everyone else was the rest of CCR. Without Terrell, this may have
been the worst secondary in football. Dean Pees said early in the season that it seemed like pretty much whatever he called there
was one guy making a mistake somewhere. We agree with everything up until the “early in the season” part. 🏈 Terrell’s 3.3
yards per pass wasn’t just the best in the league, it’s the best for any qualified corner since 2010 Darrelle Revis. 🏈 Casey
Hayward is no longer the player he was in his prime, but he’s still a very solid zone corner with some juice left in the tank.
His addition will likely cause Terrell’s numbers to drop some; last season, there was just no point in ever challenging Terrell
considering the state of the rest of the secondary. An underrated pickup. 🏈 Isaiah Oliver has never lived up to his second-
round pedigree, but he was on pace for the best coverage season of his career before going down with a knee injury in October.
Small sample size, yes, but there’s a world where the Terrell/Hayward/Oliver trio makes the Falcons secondary the best unit on
the team. 🏈 Erik Harris is the only returning safety who played at least 40% of Atlanta’s snaps in 2021. It was also the first
year he played fewer than 99 special teams snaps, which took away some of his value. 🏈 The Falcons are hopeful Richie
Grant or Jaylinn Hawkins can take a step forward and claim the other starting safety spot. Grant had to play out of position
at slot corner last year, and it went poorly as he constantly took bad angles in coverage. He was a better special teams player,
and a move back to safety should help him. Hawkins was a frequent third safety; he had two interceptions but also more than
his fair share of missed tackles and poor pursuits. If neither player improves, Dean Marlowe (ex-Lions) represents a solid, if
underwhelming, veteran option.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -2.9% 28 -4.8 25 1.6 13 -1.1 16 -5.6 24 -4.3 27 5.9 8
2020 -0.7% 20 5.7 8 -4.1 23 -4.2 25 -2.1 23 1.5 11 -6.6 23
2021 -1.0% 22 6.9 8 -6.8 29 -1.3 16 -3.0 25 -0.9 20 0.4 17

Atlanta’s kickoff woes were mostly the fault of short-term punter Cameron Nizialek, who had -7.1 points of net value on just
15 kickoffs. Other players had worse value, but none put up such low numbers on so few attempts. Without him, the Falcons
jump from 29th to 20th in kickoff value. 🏈 Nizialek is gone, as are Dustin Colquitt and Thomas Morstead. The Falcons
instead brought in ex-Buccaneers punter Bradley Pinion for the punting job; get ready for two vicious revenge battles a year
against Tampa Bay. 🏈 Younghoe Koo is second in field goal value over the last three years behind only Justin Tucker. He’s
known for his onside kickoffs but his standard kickoffs are unimpressive, which is why the Falcons may try to have the winner
of the punter battle kick off again. 🏈 Avery Williams is switching from cornerback to running back as Atlanta continues
to find ways to use his speed and undersized frame. Williams was in the top 20 in kick return value but the bottom 20 in punt
return value, balancing out to a slight net negative. Cordarrelle Patterson may be the best kickoff returner in NFL history but
had a bit of an off year last season (-2.4 Pts+) and using Williams more to return kickoffs will keep Patterson fresher for actual
offensive work.
 Baltimore Ravens
2021 record: 8-9 Total DVOA: -2.7% (19) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.7 wins On the Clock (0-5): 6%
Pythagorean Wins: 8.4 (19) Offense: 1.7% (17) Postseason Odds: 62.3% Mediocrity (6-8): 25%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.8 (8) Defense: 9.3% (28) Super Bowl Odds: 12.1% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: 0.3% (18) Special Teams: 5.0% (1) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.7% (22) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 26%

2021: The season collapses under the weight of accumulated MRIs.

2022: No more postponing a referendum on Lamar Jackson.

F or the 2021 Ravens, injuries played more than just a lead-

ing role; it was Hamlet and MacBeth and Romeo and Ju-
liet, combined. The preseason favorites to win the AFC North
The .500-ish record undersells just how bizarre the season
was. Only five games were decided by more than a touch-
down. Incredibly, the Ravens were at one point 8-3 and the
and compete for a championship were completely undone by top seed in the AFC thanks to a number of astonishing wins
torn ligaments and broken bones and soft-tissue ouchies. The pulled from deep inside their collective keister. A ludicrous
playbook was replaced by Gray’s Anatomy. There were no comeback aided by Kansas City fumbles. A 66-yard field goal
pregame speeches, just a recitation of the Hippocratic Oath. by Justin Tucker to somehow snatch a game from the Lions.
Players were lost in training camp, in the preseason, in prac- Overtime wins against the Colts and Vikings. Another last-
tices before the season began, and of course once the games second miracle led by backup Tyler Huntley to beat the Bears.
kicked off. Among the wounded were the starting quarter- Then December came, and Lamar Jackson went down with
back, the All-Pro left tackle, both lockdown cornerbacks, the an ankle sprain, and that proved one injury too many. The
first-round draft pick, and virtually the entirety of the running unfathomable victories turned into mystifying defeats. A loss
back room. By season’s end the depth chart more closely re- to Pittsburgh when a potential game-winning two-point play
sembled a USFL/AAF roster. went off Mark Andrews’ hands. A narrow loss in Cleveland
Still, this kind of thing happens. John Feinstein spent the when Huntley couldn’t quite bring the Ravens back from 24-3
2004 season embedded with the Ravens, and that campaign down. Another last-second two-point miss, this time against
was so marked by carnage the book he wrote about it was Green Bay, led to another one-point loss. Still another one-
literally called Next Man Up. Teams lose promising seasons point loss, to the eventual Super Bowl champs in L.A. At last,
to injuries all the time. The Ravens had it tough last year, but an overtime defeat to the Steelers made it six consecutive
let’s not get carried away. losses to mercifully end the season.
Actually, let’s get carried away. The Ravens led the NFL in Tough as that was to swallow for proud Charm City fans,
our Adjusted Games Lost metric, which factors in starters who they can take solace in the fact that with all the wounded war-
go down vis-a-vis reserves, as well as guys who play despite riors back, it should be easy enough to turn the page and pick
being dinged. The Ravens didn’t just lead the league—it was right up where 2021 was supposed to go, right?
Secretariat at the Belmont-level domination. But being the Well, maybe. Life in the NFL is never that simple.
team hit worst by injury in 2021 was merely peanuts. Turns
out, Baltimore suffered more injuries than any other team this Table 1. Most Adjusted
century (Table 1).
Even factoring in the newfangled 17th game, Baltimore Games Lost, 2001-2021
topped this unfortunate chart on a per-16-game basis. What
these numbers tell you, other than that the turf at MetLife Sta- Team Year AGL DVOA DVOA Y+1
dium needs to be ripped up immediately, is that the Ravens suf- BAL 2021 191.2 -2.1% --
fered historically bad injury luck in 2021. It also shows that CHI 2016 171.6 -8.8% -17.0%
despite the trauma Baltimore still managed to put up a semi- SF 2020 166.6 5.4% 19.9%
respectable DVOA. True, it was nearly 20 points below their NYJ 2019 160.1 -17.7% -30.5%
mean projection of 17.6% from last year’s Almanac, a figure NYG 2015 152.0 -7.4% 9.4%
that made them the favorites to represent the AFC in Super NYJ 2021 158.5 -18.3% --
Bowl LVI before the injuries began to mount in earnest. Yet NYG 2013 140.5 -16.5% -7.8%
somehow the (bruised) Purple and Black stayed competitive, WAS 2017 138.8 -2.6% -20.1%
and the 8-9 finish was, under the circumstances, something of NYG 2014 136.1 -7.8% -7.4%
an achievement. The following season’s DVOA doesn’t always NE 2020 134.8 -7.1% 23.3%
show improvement, but a good team undone by injuries can WAS 2019 131.0 -26.9% -2.3%
usually count on a return to form. PHI 2020 128.1 -18.8% 3.8%

17
18 BALTIMORE RAVENS

2021 BAL DVOA by Week

2022 Ravens Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at NYJ 7 CLE 13 DEN
2 MIA 8 at TB (Thu.) 14 at PIT 40%
3 at NE 9 at NO (Mon.) 15 at CLE 20%
4 BUF 10 BYE 16 ATL (Sat.)
0%
5 CIN 11 CAR 17 PIT
6 at NYG 12 at JAX 18 at CIN -20%

-40%

-60%

There are surely positives beyond an assumed return to -80%

health for the team to build upon. The Ravens are indeed a -100%

top-10 team in our projections. The club should benefit from a

last-place schedule that stands in stark contrast to those of its
division rivals. (Baltimore faces a below-average slate by our
projections, while the schedules of the other AFC North teams in 2021 compared with 21.0% in 2020 and 60.4% in 2019.
rank in the top six.) They should continue to win games with Jackson’s struggles felt, to a degree, as much self-imposed
their top-ranked special teams. And any idea that last season’s as forced by opponents.
series of unfortunate events would stick to head coach John Perhaps most concerning were Jackson’s poor numbers
Harbaugh was obliterated when he was handed a three-year against man coverage. The league’s most dangerous running
contract extension in March. quarterback has been predictably sensational against man
But there are reasons for concern. The projected DVOA and schemes that both allow him to easily identify a mismatch and
expected wins for 2022 are noticeably lower than they were to take off while the defense has its back to him. But in 2021,
before last season, reflecting the fact that while the injuries that wasn’t the case. Jackson’s EPA per dropback against man
may have been the major cause of last year’s troubles, there coverage—including scrambles—wasn’t just the worst in the
were others. NFL, it was the worst in the NFL over the last three seasons
As always, start with the quarterback. After winning league (of passers with 300 attempts or more).
MVP in 2019, Jackson has now had two straight substandard Jackson’s timing was completely off, his pocket presence
seasons by our advanced stats. He is so dynamic and gifted poor, hitches in his motion exacerbated, confidence in his
at hero ball that last year he remained in the MVP conver- ability to overcome late decisions with his arm power bad-
sation by bailing out his team week after week, but beneath ly reduced. He was very much a different player in 2021,
the waterline the hull was full of holes. The league appeared thanks in part to a lack of faith in his blockers (including the
to figure Jackson out, mainly through relentless blitzing— running backs, most of whom were signed off the street and
especially against empty backfields, which the Ravens used weren’t up to speed on pass protection) and the extra pass-
on 14% of their snaps, third most in the league. Jackson was rushers that came at him. He didn’t get much help from his
not comparatively high in blitz rates in previous seasons, but receiving corps either, outside of tight end Mark Andrews,
last year he was blitzed on 33% of pass plays, second in the with whom Jackson’s rapport was never better. When he
league behind Andy Dalton among quarterbacks with at least needed his receivers to win quickly, they didn’t; when a hot
200 passes. Jackson was far, far better against a standard pass route was open, Jackson found it difficult to deliver the ball
rush: 7.6 yards per play and 35.5% DVOA with four pass- on time to the right spot.
rushers but 5.7 yards per play and -21.9% DVOA against Presumably, some of that will improve with a healthier
five pass-rushers and 3.2 yards per play with -67.5% DVOA running game and an offseason to counterattack the defensive
against six or more. schemes that flummoxed the quarterback. Off the field, how-
Jackson was also better against four pass-rushers than ever, Jackson has entered the infamous Cousins Nebula, the
against a blitz in 2019 and 2020 but not to anything near mysterious interstellar zone named for Captain Kirk, where
this extent. He was forced into quick decisions and hurried young quarterbacks expecting a monster payday often end
throws, and undercutting his ability to elongate plays had a up marooned when their franchise has other ideas. Jackson is
clear effect. The numbers are undeniable—19th in DVOA, in the final year of his rookie contract. Most young quarter-
21st in DYAR. Sports Info Solutions charted Jackson with backs with an MVP in hand would be re-signed by now to a
a 71.7% rate of passes on target (31st in the league among deal rich enough to have its own Cayman Islands tax shelter.
passers with 200-plus dropbacks) and just an 82.4% catch- But Jackson isn’t “most quarterbacks.” Aside from last sea-
able ball rate (32nd). His adjusted net yards per attempt was son’s nightmare, well-documented postseason struggles, and
a pedestrian 5.78 (20th). Jackson entered the season with a his binary “love him or hate him” playing style, there is the
commitment to be more of a pocket-passer and indeed he had fact that Jackson is serving as his own agent, with advisors
fewer outside-the-pocket attempts. But his DVOA on those including his mother, Felicia Jones, helping him sort out the
outside throws was far worse than in previous years—4.5% fine print.
 BALTIMORE RAVENS 19

This unique goulash is different from the circumstances that but the failure of the next wave of pass-rushers to actually rush
kept Cousins from a second contract in Washington, and dif- the passer. Are injuries solely to blame for the poor tackling
ferent from those of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and that saw the Ravens give up 6.28 average yards after the catch,
Daniel Jones and all the other occupants of the Nebula. But second worst in the league behind Dallas, and an NFL-worst
the overall effect is the same—the lack of clarity hangs over 1.1 average YAC allowed over expectation?
the team and cannot help but affect the player. Until Jackson The lack of defensive juice resulted in Baltimore swapping
can say “Bye, Felicia” and put pen to paper, his status will game shows for yacht rock, i.e., letting defensive coordinator
be endlessly talked about, with every game—every drive, ev- Wink Martindale go and hiring Michael Macdonald to replace
ery throw—fodder for a referendum on his future. It’s a tough him. After several years as a position coach in Baltimore,
way for player and team to compete for the Super Bowl. Macdonald spent last season on the Michigan staff with Jim
In this context, the Ravens seemingly doing all they can to Harbaugh, so he will be a good person to turn to for a “Har-
make Jackson’s passing life more difficult takes on sinister baugh Bros.—Compare and Contrast” segment down the line.
overtones. No, Baltimore didn’t deal Marquise “Hollywood” The front office seemed to realize that the injuries were
Brown, the team’s only downfield threat, as a bargaining tool masking a larger ailment and moved decidedly this offsea-
(receiving a first-round pick in exchange for the No. 81 re- son to infuse the roster with an avalanche of young talent. It
ceiver by DYAR was highway robbery). But the Ravens didn’t helped that the Ravens managed to amass 11 draft picks when
replace Brown, and the ongoing failure to procure any proven they needed them most, and instead of trading a few to deepen
help on the perimeter feels like Baltimore is leaning into an the 2023 class they kept every one of them, including a whop-
ethos that already has left its quarterback in limbo. ping six in the fourth round alone. The team also went against
A decaying veteran wideout may be signed by the time you its usual norms and spent heavily on an outside free agent,
read this, but as of mid-June, the Ravens receiving corps con- safety Marcus Williams, who left New Orleans for nearly
sisted of last year’s first-round pick, Rashod Bateman, who $36 million guaranteed. The first of those 11 picks then went
missed roughly half the season but flashed late; third-year to procure Kyle Hamilton, the plus-sized safety from Notre
slot types Devin Duvernay and James Proche, who have been Dame, widely considered the best at the position in the draft.
better special teamers than pass-catchers thus far; and a host Suddenly, safety is in its best shape since Ed Reed and Dawan
of untested youth (including six undrafted free agents) who Landry manned the deep backfield.
make each member of the aforementioned trio look like Ray- Baltimore also had the consensus best center, Iowa’s Tyler
mond Berry. The position battle in camp promises to be an Linderbaum, fall to them with the pick acquired in the Brown
Inner Harbor version of the Hunger Games. Heath Ledger’s trade; took David Ojabo (Michigan) to stash after the highly-
Joker should be on hand to snap a pool cue in half, toss it in ranked edge rusher tore an Achilles tendon during his pro day;
the receiver room, and hiss, “We’re gonna have tryouts…” beefed up the defensive interior by grabbing UConn’s Travis
Baltimore’s front office has other concerns beyond nego- Jones; took a pair of receiving tight ends in the Mark Andrews
tiating with/against its star player. “Next man up” may have mold (Isaiah Likely from Coastal Carolina and Iowa State’s
become an odious cliche that papers over the sanctioned bru- Charlie Kolar); a pair of fourth-round corners (Alabama’s Ja-
tality and heartlessness of NFL football, but it has also been lyn Armour-Davis and Damarion Williams from Houston);
a defining organizational principle in Baltimore. With the Ra- even a punter, Jordan Stout (Penn State). Plenty of new grist
vens it meant always having roster depth and backups devel- for the development mill—except that in a draft rich with re-
oped and ready when frontline players were hurt or, as often, ceiving talent, they couldn’t be bothered to grab a single wide-
left in free agency. We have covered the practices begun un- out among the 11 picks.
der former general manager Ozzie Newsome and continued Indeed, if the modern NFL is defined by passing game-
by the Wizard of Oz’s protege, Eric DeCosta, in these pages adjacent positions (quarterback, wideout, tackle, pass-rusher,
before. The Ravens seldom outbid other teams to keep inter- cornerback), then Baltimore is leaning into its zig-while-ev-
nal free agents, secure in the knowledge that the reserves are eryone-else-zags approach even heavier than ever. Leaving
ready to go. Better to collect the compensatory draft pick and aside the fog surrounding Jackson, the team is bereft at wide
roll with the next battalion of replacements. It’s a system that receiver, unusually weak at rushing the passer, and relying
has allowed the Ravens to sustain remarkable success—just heavily on mended body parts at tackle and cornerback.
four losing seasons since 2000, and 13 playoff appearances The Ravens have certainly proven that doing things their
(and two championships) in that span. own way has been successful, and there is no reason to believe
But the assembly line threw a gasket someplace. After all, the that the team won’t be in the playoff mix in 2022. But the
running backs may have been hurt but the line (also not 100%, margin for error is not what it was, and should the injury virus
in fairness) in front of their replacements didn’t get the job done appear again—even if it is merely an epidemic rather than a
either, finishing 29th in adjusted line yards (the line-only met- pandemic this time—Baltimore and its mercurial quarterback
ric significantly underperformed the standard yards per carry may reach an organizational crossroads by season’s end.
number). It wasn’t just injuries that led to the Ravens’ abysmal
adjusted sack rate on defense (5.3%, tied for 31st in the league) Robert Weintraub
20 BALTIMORE RAVENS

2021 Ravens by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at LV L 39% 27 33 406 491 -1 -11% -7% 12% 7% Total DVOA 1.7% 17 9.3% 28
2 KC W 28% 36 35 481 405 0 24% 35% 15% 3% Unadjusted VOA 2.7% 18 8.1% 27
3 at DET W 84% 19 17 387 285 -1 3% -1% 7% 11% Weighted Trend -3.7% 18 12.3% 31
4 at DEN W 100% 23 7 406 254 1 63% 24% -34% 5% Variance 5.5% 7 7.0% 20
5 IND W 40% 31 25 523 513 0 -1% 46% 46% -2% Average Opponent 0.6% 21 1.2% 10
6 LAC W 97% 34 6 327 208 -1 59% 2% -42% 15%
7 CIN L 3% 17 41 393 520 1 -31% -9% 27% 5% Passing 12.5% 16 27.0% 30
8 BYE Rushing -1.5% 11 -18.4% 4
9 MIN W 17% 34 31 500 318 -2 8% 24% 3% -13%
First Down 10.0% 9 10.2% 27
10 at MIA L 16% 10 22 304 350 -2 -28% -30% -5% -3%
Second Down 10.2% 11 16.2% 30
11 at CHI W 28% 16 13 299 353 0 -16% -11% 11% 6%
Third Down -29.2% 30 -3.5% 15
12 CLE W 15% 16 10 303 262 -2 -5% -41% -21% 14%
13 at PIT L 8% 19 20 326 321 -1 -34% -15% 25% 6% First Half -7.9% 20 1.5% 18
14 at CLE L 53% 22 24 389 290 -1 21% 12% 7% 16% Second Half 10.6% 8 17.4% 31
15 GB L 13% 30 31 354 346 0 2% 19% 26% 9%
16 at CIN L 0% 21 41 334 575 -1 -66% 3% 63% -5% Red Zone 7.8% 10 -11.0% 7
17 LAR L 8% 19 20 327 373 1 0% -7% 6% 12% Late and Close 6.7% 12 26.6% 30
18 PIT L 10% 13 16 381 314 -2 -22% -26% -7% -3%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 10.5 10.3 395 303 +17 17.9% 7 -4.6% 21 -13.4% 4 9.2% 1 62.1 28 42.9 22 27.3 10 27.0 6 25.7 22
2018 10-6 10.8 10.8 389 287 -5 15.8% 6 1.2% 13 -11.7% 4 3.0% 6 17.1 5 11.5 2 26.3 20 27.6 2 25.7 21
2019 14-2 13.4 12.9 531 282 +10 41.2% 1 28.2% 1 -11.5% 5 1.5% 9 9.7 1 59.1 31 25.7 31 27.3 3 26.7 4
2020 11-5 12.0 9.5 468 303 +4 18.5% 7 4.3% 11 -6.9% 9 7.4% 2 37.4 16 22.2 6 25.0 32 26.5 12 26.8 4
2021 8-9 8.4 7.3 387 392 -11 -2.7% 19 1.7% 17 9.3% 28 5.0% 1 103.2 32 88.0 31 26.7 15 27.0 8 26.9 4

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

BAL Offense BAL Offense vs. Opponents BAL Defense BAL Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 42% 5.9 12.5% 18% Base 39% 5.5 6.7% 57% Base 24% 5.6 0.8% 11 58% 6.4 13.7%
21 21% 6.0 10.6% 45% Nickel 42% 5.9 13.6% 28% Nickel 54% 6.4 12.6% 12 21% 6.9 28.5%
22 13% 4.3 -3.9% 68% Dime+ 16% 5.5 -17.1% 9% Dime+ 20% 6.9 20.6% 21 7% 5.7 2.1%
12 8% 6.5 14.6% 29% Goal Line 1% 1.0 14.6% 86% Goal Line 1% 0.5 -11.6% 13 5% 5.5 -2.7%
20 7% 4.9 -2.9% 66% Big 1% 3.0 -29.3% 64% Big 1% 0.4 -102.5% 22 3% 3.2 -31.9%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 37% 20 Form: Single Back 70% 30 Rush 3 10.3% 5 4 DB 24% 15 Play Action 29% 10
Runs, first down 44% 26 Form: Empty Back 14% 3 Rush 4 61.9% 27 5 DB 54% 24 Offensive Motion 46% 12
Runs, second-long 18% 30 Form: Multi Back 16% 5 Rush 5 21.6% 10 6+ DB 20% 11 Avg Box (Off) 6.47 17
Runs, power sit. 83% 1 Pers: 3+ WR 52% 28 Rush 6+ 6.2% 9 Man Coverage 38% 4 Avg Box (Def) 6.67 6
Runs, behind 2H 26% 22 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 27% 20 Edge Rusher Sacks 53.0% 18 CB by Sides 67% 23 Offensive Pace 32.42 26
Pass, ahead 2H 52% 10 Pers: 6+ OL 3% 16 Interior DL Sacks 16.7% 24 S/CB Cover Ratio 24% 22 Defensive Pace 31.19 20
Run-Pass Options 7% 19 Shotgun/Pistol 96% 1 Second Level Sacks 30.3% 7 DB Blitz 15% 3 Go for it on 4th 1.00 16
 BALTIMORE RAVENS 21

Due in part to all their running back injuries, the Ravens significantly changed their run/pass ratios from previous seasons.
For example, runs in the first half dropped from 47% to 37% and runs on first down dropped from 61% to 44%. The one place
where the Ravens continued to run at the same rate was in short yardage, where they led the league in run/pass ratio as usual.
🏈 The running back injuries also may have contributed to the lack of passes to running backs. Baltimore threw just 14% of
passes to running backs; only the Rams were lower. The Ravens threw only two running back screens all season, compared to
an NFL average of 22 screens. 🏈 Baltimore was the least likely team to run from 11 personnel (18%) as well as 12 person-
nel (29%). 🏈 Baltimore was once again far past the rest of the league, using pistol on 28% of plays while no other offense
was above 12%. The Ravens had 5.0 yards per play with -7.4% DVOA from the pistol. 🏈 On third or fourth down with 7
or more yards to go, the Ravens had ranked third in 2019 and seventh in 2020. Last year, they had the worst offensive DVOA
in the league in these situations. 🏈 A league-high 44% of Baltimore’s sacks on offense were “non-pressure” sacks such
as “coverage sack” and “failed scramble.” 🏈 Baltimore averaged 6.3 yards on RPOs, the highest figure for any team that
used RPOs on at least 5% of plays. 🏈 The Ravens significantly cut their blitz frequency, dropping to 10th in the league
after leading the league in blitzing in both 2019 and 2020. Perhaps they made the change because their defensive back injuries
made it very difficult to send so many pass-rushers and leave cornerbacks on an island. Baltimore allowed 35.8% DVOA with
7.6 yards per play when blitzing in 2021. Baltimore’s DVOA on defensive back blitzes, which had been excellent the previous
couple seasons, was among the league’s worst at 30.9%. 🏈 Baltimore kept its cornerbacks to specific sides much more after
Marlon Humphrey’s injury, with the “CB by Sides” number going from 57% in Weeks 1 to 13 to 91% in Weeks 14 to 18. 🏈
The Ravens gave up an absolutely brutal 9.6 yards per pass on play-action with 58.6% defensive DVOA. Compare that to 6.5
yards per pass (26th) with 13.9% DVOA (28th) on other pass plays.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
L.Jackson 216 -2.9% 416 2692 6.5 4.7 65.1% 16 13 M.Brown* -14 -13.9% 146 91 1008 11.1 4.3 6 62%
T.Huntley -72 -16.7% 203 949 4.7 3.7 66.7% 3 4 R.Bateman 104 5.6% 68 46 515 11.2 3.5 1 68%
J.Johnson* 95 25.0% 41 295 7.2 4.3 70.0% 2 1 S.Watkins* 1 -12.5% 49 27 394 14.6 4.0 1 55%
D.Duvernay -9 -15.1% 47 33 272 8.2 4.3 2 70%
J.Proche 74 36.1% 20 16 202 12.6 3.4 0 80%
Rushing T.Wallace -22 -58.0% 6 2 23 11.5 7.0 0 33%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc M.Andrews 310 24.6% 153 107 1361 12.7 4.2 9 70%
D.Freeman* 51 0.3% 133 576 4.3 5 0 59% J.Oliver -43 -53.0% 15 9 66 7.3 2.8 0 60%
L.Jackson 66 -2.0% 127 769 6.1 2 3 - D.Freeman* 34 0.6% 42 34 190 5.6 5.4 1 81%
L.Murray* 91 7.3% 119 501 4.2 6 0 58% P.Ricard 10 -0.7% 13 8 63 7.9 5.6 1 62%
T.Huntley 33 1.8% 44 297 6.8 2 1 - L.Murray* 6 -5.0% 13 10 75 7.5 7.1 0 77%
T.Williams* 15 2.2% 35 186 5.3 1 1 49% T.Williams* 24 26.3% 12 9 84 9.3 7.9 0 75%
L.Bell* -11 -16.4% 31 83 2.7 2 0 52% M.Davis -72 -34.9% 58 44 259 5.9 7.0 1 76%
D.Duvernay 26 37.9% 7 50 7.1 0 0 -
J.Johnson* -44 -166.3% 5 6 1.2 0 2 -
M.Davis 6 -7.5% 138 503 3.6 3 2 43%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Kevin Zeitler RG 32 17/17 1223 6 0.0 10 6 Patrick Mekari RT 25 13/12 764 3 3.5 16 7
Alejandro Villanueva* LT 34 17/17 1207 11 6.5 31 6 Tyre Phillips RT 25 10/5 389 4 1.0 13 3
Bradley Bozeman* C 28 16/16 1127 0 1.5 8 5 Ben Cleveland LG 24 12/4 367 2 0.0 5 2
Ben Powers LG 26 13/12 846 3 2.0 9 4 Morgan Moses RT 31 17/16 1020 3 4.0 26 7

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.97 4.73 3 61% 23 13% 2 1.37 2 0.95 11 5.6% 1 28 6.0% 8 28.2% 8 7.5% 1 36
2020 5.21 4.58 8 75% 5 14% 5 1.30 9 1.24 1 6.7% 3 32 7.5% 23 30.8% 29 10.7% 10 22
2021 4.22 3.82 29 69% 16 16% 13 1.11 27 0.68 13 7.9% 3 57 8.6% 29 26.3% 17 13.7% 15 28
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.53 (27) Left Tackle: 3.58 (28) Mid/Guard: 4.27 (16) Right Tackle: 2.51 (32) Right End: 3.74 (23)
22 BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens started 2020 believing they were set at the tackle position for the next decade, but when teams make plans, God
laughs. Orlando Brown forced a trade, and Ronnie Stanley entered a leg injury vortex that has cost him almost all of the past
two years. Stanley’s status is key for the upcoming season. Steelers castoff Alejandro Villanueva didn’t cut it in Stanley’s stead
a year ago. If the All-Pro tackle can’t come back from last year’s severe ankle injury, newly re-signed Patrick Mekari—who
held down right tackle as best he could despite multiple nagging injuries of his own in 2021—would take over on the left side.
🏈 Morgan Moses took the Acela down from New York after a season with the Jets and will man the right tackle spot. With 33
blown blocks in 2021, 27th among right tackles, the 31-year-old Moses isn’t likely to part any seas of defenders, but hopefully
he can provide a season or two of competence. 🏈 Mountainous prospect Daniel Faalele, 6-foot-8 and variously weighed at
between 380 and 400 pounds depending on that day’s breakfast, was selected in the fourth round out of Minnesota. He’s like
Brown in that his sheer bulk creates problems for edge rushers, but he hasn’t shown the foot niftiness required for consistent
NFL play yet. 🏈 Tyler Linderbaum should step in and take over at center straight away. Linderbaum got dinged by scouts
for his short arms and light frame, but he is exceptionally athletic, and in the Ravens scheme should prove suitably dynamic.
🏈 Kevin Zeitler was often the lone steady ship on the 2021 line; at 32 he remains a solid force at right guard. There will be
a camp battle on the left side; Tyre Phillips has the slight edge entering the summer, though a couple of Bens, Cleveland and
Powers, are in the mix as well.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Calais Campbell 36 DE 15 617 50 6.9% 20 38 11 5 44 77% 17 1.9 19 1.5 10 22 1
Justin Madubuike 25 DE 15 484 38 5.3% 58 30 10 2 31 81% 10 1.3 3 2.0 3 8 2
Brandon Williams* 33 DT 13 448 38 6.1% 35 30 7 3 34 76% 21 2.4 34 0.0 1 5 2
Justin Ellis* 32 DT 17 382 18 2.2% -- 13 1 2 18 72% -- 2.8 -- 0.0 1 6 0
Broderick Washington 26 DE 14 293 16 2.4% -- 12 3 1 14 79% -- 1.6 -- 1.0 2 6 0
Michael Pierce 30 DT 8 251 20 4.5% 70 16 8 1 16 81% 9 1.8 9 3.0 1 3 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Tyus Bowser 27 OLB 17 834 60 7.3% 14 41 22 11 34 74% 40 2.3 34 7.0 7 20 1
Odafe Oweh 24 OLB 15 615 34 4.7% 61 25 14 5 24 71% 47 2.6 49 5.0 11 25 1
Justin Houston 33 OLB 15 579 35 4.8% 58 30 12 6 25 80% 15 2.2 28 4.5 13 25 0
Pernell McPhee* 34 OLB 10 234 14 2.9% -- 11 3 1 11 82% -- 1.2 -- 1.0 2 4 0
Steven Means 32 OLB 14 692 43 5.6% 40 23 5 1 35 60% 83 3.2 71 0.0 2 8 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Patrick Queen 23 ILB 17 826 99 12.1% 42 50 16 22 59 58% 43 3.0 13 2.0 1 5 29 41% 59 8.7 67 1 0
Josh Bynes 33 ILB 14 539 80 11.8% 45 47 11 6 46 72% 5 2.8 8 2.0 1 4 24 54% 27 6.9 46 4 0
Chris Board* 27 ILB 16 336 30 3.9% -- 15 8 3 12 75% -- 4.2 -- 0.0 2 9 12 17% -- 11.2 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.41 4.11 10 68% 24 19% 16 1.16 16 1.01 29 14.1% 12 37 7.1% 15 35.0% 3 13.5% 23
2020 4.50 4.16 10 55% 2 15% 22 1.20 16 0.91 25 11.9% 20 39 6.8% 13 26.7% 11 12.3% 21
2021 3.73 3.45 1 62% 8 24% 2 1.13 12 0.70 19 19.5% 1 34 5.3% 30 24.4% 19 11.6% 28
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 2.74 (2) Left Tackle: 4.11 (12) Mid/Guard: 3.28 (1) Right Tackle: 4.77 (28) Right End: 2.50 (3)

Baltimore struggled to rush the passer in 2021. Alas, the only meaningful addition to the group won’t be playing any time
soon. David Ojabo had a stellar season opposite Aidan Hutchinson at Michigan, but a torn Achilles caused him to slip into the
second round, where a grateful Ravens front office snagged him. Ojabo was considered extremely raw even before the injury,
so it may be a while before he contributes noticeably. 🏈 Meanwhile, Odafe Oweh, who showed some flashes in his rookie
year but crashed hard into the rookie wall, and Tyus Bowser, who led the team with just seven sacks but had offseason surgery
on a partially torn Achilles tendon, will have to level up. 🏈 Calais Campbell has been decent with the Ravens and turns 36 in
September. But he is back as a starting end and counted on as a rock up front, which shows how desperate the situation is at that
position. Derek Wolfe is gone after a second hip surgery in as many years. That makes Justin Madubuike a pivotal figure. Enter-
ing his third season, the former third-round pick has frustrated with his inconsistency—dominant for stretches, invisible for oth-
 BALTIMORE RAVENS 23

ers. Now is the time for Madubuike to step up and turn promise into reliability. 🏈 Inside, the redoubtable Michael Pierce is
back to stuff the middle, and Baltimore drafted his likely successor in the third round, Travis Jones of UConn. Some considered
Jones a late-first-round talent; he’s strong with good technique but needs improvement as a pass-rusher. 🏈 Inside linebacker
was a rough patch last season. Josh Bynes had a surprisingly productive season for a guy usually backhand-complimented as a
“veteran leader,” but he’s on the downslope of what was never an especially lofty career. Patrick Queen, selected 28th overall in
2020, has been disappointing in both tackling and pass coverage (41% success rate). Ravens opponents targeted their tight ends
more often than against any other defense (26% of passes) and the weaknesses of Queen and Bynes were a big reason for that.
🏈 The coverage issues at inside linebacker extend to Malik Harrison, who hasn’t gotten the playing time many expected when
the Ravens took him in the third round two years ago. Harrison started the first five games before he was benched in favor of
Bynes, then he played only one defensive snap in seven games after returning from a midseason off-field injury.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Chuck Clark 27 SS 16 1025 89 11.5% 26 41 15 8 40 48% 17 8.2 52 30 6.8% 55 8.5 57% 35 7.3 41 12 2
Anthony Averett* 28 CB 14 808 64 9.5% 29 20 10 6 5 40% 46 5.2 29 90 25.8% 4 12.0 56% 33 6.7 29 11 3
Marlon Humphrey 26 CB 12 748 71 12.3% 2 26 12 7 15 27% 65 9.9 75 69 21.4% 26 12.2 58% 22 8.8 71 13 1
Brandon Stephens 25 FS 17 744 78 9.5% 51 22 9 7 27 33% 41 7.6 43 28 8.7% 34 10.7 43% 61 8.2 50 4 0
Tavon Young* 28 CB 17 550 37 4.5% -- 18 8 4 3 33% -- 9.0 -- 42 17.7% -- 8.0 60% -- 5.7 -- 3 1
DeShon Elliott* 25 FS 6 305 25 8.6% -- 9 6 7 6 50% -- 6.0 -- 9 6.8% -- 9.9 44% -- 8.1 -- 2 1
Jimmy Smith* 34 CB 10 294 21 4.4% -- 11 2 7 4 75% -- 2.0 -- 17 13.4% -- 12.3 53% -- 4.6 -- 3 0
Kevon Seymour 29 CB 9 247 24 5.5% -- 7 4 10 7 43% -- 3.9 -- 16 15.0% -- 11.0 25% -- 12.4 -- 1 0
Marcus Williams 26 FS 16 1036 82 10.0% 46 18 6 9 34 24% 63 9.6 65 17 4.0% 73 17.6 65% 13 7.4 42 8 2
Kyle Fuller 30 CB 16 720 55 7.1% 64 23 8 7 12 67% 3 3.0 4 52 17.9% 61 11.0 46% 69 8.6 67 4 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 4 -16.1% 6 3.1% 19 -31.6% 2 -15.8% 9 -13.9% 5 -5.6% 10 -10.8% 8
2020 10 -22.8% 3 -0.6% 16 -20.9% 5 -29.3% 2 -13.4% 1 6.8% 22 3.8% 21
2021 30 11.9% 24 26.0% 29 3.2% 20 9.7% 27 18.9% 27 -0.2% 18 32.2% 30

Perhaps no injury among the legions suffered by Baltimore in 2021 was more damaging than the ligament that snapped in
Marcus Peters’ knee. Playing without their aggressive press corner sapped a large chunk of the Ravens’ defensive identity. As-
suming Peters is back to full capacity, new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald can use a far more multiple set of looks than
the Ravens could muster in 2021. 🏈 Marlon Humphrey gave up an unusually high (for him) 8.8 yards per pass before he,
too, was injured. Overall, the Ravens went from second defending wideouts on the perimeter and first in the slot in 2020 to 27th
on both counts in 2021. Things shouldn’t be so easy for opponents with Peters and Humphrey healthy. 🏈 Baltimore wisely
signed some veteran depth in the form of Kyle Fuller, who was poor in Denver last season but has plenty of experience should
injuries strike again. Fuller is emblematic of the inconsistency of cornerback charting stats; over the last three years, his rank in
success rate has gone from 68th to 10th to 69th. 🏈 When Brandon Stephens was drafted in the third round of the 2021 draft,
versatility was a strong suit. That helped when injuries forced Stephens to play free safety. He is back at his more natural cor-
nerback position this season and will start out in the slot where his physical style, presumably honed a bit while playing safety,
should serve him well. 🏈 Kyle Hamilton dropped in the draft on concerns of being too big and not fast enough for the pro
game, but he sure covered huge swaths of the field in South Bend. Exactly where he fits in Baltimore with veteran Chuck Clark
ensconced at strong safety and Marcus Williams signed to play free safety is a pleasant problem for Macdonald to decipher.
24 BALTIMORE RAVENS

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 1.5% 9 14.1 1 0.5 17 -1.4 21 -6.4 25 0.5 14 -3.7 23
2020 7.4% 2 10.6 4 6.4 4 8.9 1 9.4 5 1.5 12 12.5 4
2021 5.0% 1 18.0 1 -2.2 23 0.8 11 2.7 9 7.0 2 6.2 5

You have to go back to 2011 to find a season when the Ravens weren’t in the top 10 for special teams DVOA, which is what
you hope for when the head coach is a former third-unit maestro. Last year, Baltimore topped our rankings for the fourth time
in the last 10 years. 🏈 Justin Tucker remains the league’s best kicker by a wide margin—fittingly, he now holds the NFL
record for the longest made field goal, a 66-yarder he somehow bounced in off the crossbar to beat Detroit last September. 🏈
Sam Koch retired this offseason after 16 years as the Ravens’ punter and will be replaced by fourth-round pick Jordan Stout out
of Penn State. Stout has a monster leg that could earn him kickoff duties in short order as well, although last year was the rare
season where Tucker did not rank among the top kickoff men in the league. 🏈 Devin Duvernay had a strong return season,
especially on punts, but now that he is expected to be the team’s No. 2 wideout it remains to be seen if he will cede some of
those duties, either to No. 3 receiver James Proche or someone else.
 Buffalo Bills
2021 record: 11-6 Total DVOA: 27.6% (2) 2022 Mean Projection: 10.2 wins On the Clock (0-5): 4%
Pythagorean Wins: 13.3 (1) Offense: 9.7% (10) Postseason Odds: 70.4% Mediocrity (6-8): 20%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.9 (6) Defense: -18.0% (1) Super Bowl Odds: 18.2% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: -5.0% (32) Special Teams: -0.1% (19) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.8% (11) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 33%

2021: Even an inconsistent Josh Allen makes the Bills the envy of the AFC.

2022: So why are they acting so desperate?

A s his assistant coaches jumped for joy and his father Joel
hugged and shook many of the 37 other members of his
extended family in attendance, Josh Allen embraced his re-
Bills lost all five of their one-score games.
But the Bills were as inconsistent as they were unlucky.
They outclassed the Chiefs 38-20 for some regular-season re-
ceiver Gabriel Davis and rocked slowly side to side, unblink- venge in Kansas City, but then they suffered a 41-15 blowout
ing. Allen didn’t look joyful as much as he looked relieved. loss to the Colts at home. The Bills scored 35 and 31 points
He looked eased of a burden that had settled on his shoulders against Dolphins and Saints defenses ranked 10th and third in
when second-year head coach Sean McDermott and general defensive DVOA, but then they scored six against a Jaguars
manager Brandon Beane traded up and drafted him seventh defense ranked 31st. All told, the Bills led the league with a
in the 2018 draft, a burden that every Bills quarterback had to 30.9% variance in their weekly DVOA rates.
carry for a franchise haunted by its four straight Super Bowl Variance explains Allen’s regression as well, and why non-
losses from the early 1990s and the lean two decades that fol- fans of the Bills might have missed it entirely. He tripled his
lowed. total of starts that were 10% below average in passing DVOA
Allen’s burden grew heavier when critics—perhaps none as or worse from two in 2020 to six last year, but his best games
confident as Football Outsiders—opined that his poor accura- matched the standard of his breakout season and tended to
cy and decision-making were an anchor on his 2019 wild-card show up in prime time. He threw for 315 yards and three
team and sabotaged his chance of developing into a franchise touchdowns in Kansas City in Week 5, 353 yards and three
quarterback. It grew heavier the next year when a suddenly touchdowns in Tennessee in Week 6, and 260 yards and four
exceptional Allen yielded a 9-0 AFC Championship Game touchdowns in New Orleans in Week 12, all at night. And
lead with sacks, penalties, and failed third-and-short and red while he managed just 145 yards and one touchdown in a final
zone conversions that answered a string of Chiefs touchdown night game against the Patriots in Week 13, he did that into the
drives with Bills field goals and punts. And it grew heavier teeth of the 25- to 50-mph sustained winds that held his op-
last season when Allen regressed from his 25.9% passing ponent Jones to 19 passing yards. Altogether, Allen’s 43.5%
DVOA of 2020 to a 4.9% rate that would on its own label him passing DVOA after dark lapped the 27.8% full-season rate
a good but not great quarterback. that landed Aaron Rodgers in first place at the position.
But Allen was poised to ease that burden after he disman- Team variance isn’t predictive from one year to the next,
tled the No. 3 Patriots pass defense with a perfect seven touch- with just a 0.04 correlation coefficient, but for Bills fans, that
downs on seven drives in the best offensive playoff perfor- was a concern for next season. Because Allen had continued
mance in the history of DVOA (108.1%) and then erased two this season’s clutch play into the playoffs. And now the Bills
different Chiefs leads in the final two minutes of the fourth assistant coaches were jumping and Allen’s relatives were
quarter of their rematch in the divisional round. Now Allen shaking, savoring the 13 seconds between them and another
was 13 seconds away from a torch pass that would make his trip to the AFC Championship Game.
Bills the AFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl. But then Bills kicker Tyler Bass kicked off into the end
13 seconds. zone, which traded a small chance of a breakaway return for
The Bills may not have been as dominant in the regular sea- the conservation of all 13 seconds on the clock. And then Pat-
son as they were in the first 119 minutes and 47 seconds of the rick Mahomes found Tyreek Hill on a catch-and-run for 19
playoffs, but their 11-6 record belied a 27.6% team DVOA yards. Timeout. And Mahomes found Travis Kelce with space
that ranked second-best in football. One could call some of to split defenders Levi Wallace and Matt Milano and gain
those six losses poor luck. Allen slipped on a fourth-and-1 another 25 yards. Timeout. And as Harrison Butker split the
sneak against the Titans that ended what would have been a uprights as time expired and as the Chiefs won the overtime
game-winning touchdown drive 3 yards short of the end zone. coin toss and drove the field for a touchdown that would not
A practical hurricane blew in for the first of their three Patri- allow the Bills offense an opportunity to answer, “13” became
ots matchups, and that allowed Mac Jones to beat them 14-10 shorthand for another Bills heartbreak, analogous to the “47”
with just two completions for 19 yards. Broadly speaking, the of “47 Wide Right,” the missed Scott Norwood field goal that
25
26 BUFFALO BILLS

2021 BUF DVOA by Week

2022 Bills Schedule 140%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 120%
100%
1 at LAR (Thu.) 7 BYE 13 at NE (Thu.)
80%
2 TEN (Mon.) 8 GB 14 NYJ
60%
3 at MIA 9 at NYJ 15 MIA
4 at BAL 10 MIN 16 at CHI (Sat.) 40%
5 PIT 11 CLE 17 at CIN (Mon.) 20%
6 at KC 12 at DET (Thu.) 18 NE 0%
-20%
-40%
cost the Bills Super Bowl XXV. -60%
The Bills cemented the “47” shorthand when they lost the -80%

next three Super Bowls by multiple scores. As unprecedented

as that run of success in the AFC was, the Bills did not redeem
the Norwood kick with a championship or even answer it with
another truly close call. They couldn’t share the blame. most dangerous with Allen’s passing and rushing versatility.
Allen’s Bills should have chances to turn “13” from a thesis And Araiza should replace Matt Haack, whose poor punting
into a forward. At 26 years old and with unmatched physical cost the team an estimated 9.0 net points more than an average
talent, Allen offers the team a foundation for Super Bowl runs punter and dragged an otherwise standout special teams unit
for the next decade or more even if he never again touches to 19th in DVOA. But those additions read like suboptimal
his outlier efficiency from 2020. And McDermott and Beane resource allocations, sacrificing too much of Allen’s future
have demonstrated the wisdom and discipline to open such an championship window for slightly improved title odds in the
extended window. They correctly saw their Year 1 wild-card next couple of seasons.
berth as a house of cards, and they didn’t expand on it, they An outsider could wonder if the Bills front office is just as
bulldozed it and followed a better blueprint with Allen and haunted by the 13 seconds as their fans are. Have the Bills ir-
cap solvency. With continued discipline for a roster with the rationally chased those demons with win-now moves that, if
blue-chip players beyond Allen and depth that earned them unsuccessful, could leave the team in another fallow period?
the No. 1 DVOA ranking by the end of the playoffs, the Bills But there is a more charitable interpretation of what looked
front office could seemingly push for a playoff streak to rival like an uncharacteristic Bills offseason, and it follows a rea-
the one the Patriots recently snapped at 11 years in their divi- sonable fear of the number “13.”
sion. Rookie quarterback contracts have become well-publicized
But if their offseason moves are any indication, the Bills cheat codes since the NFL implemented the modern rookie
chose not to. salary scale in 2011. The Seahawks, Eagles, and Chiefs won
In fact, the Bills violated what may be the four consensus Super Bowls in part because they could spend more than their
rules of sustainable team building. First, they spent big on a competitors at other positions with their top passers Russell
free agent on the wrong side of 30 in pass-rusher Von Miller Wilson, Carson Wentz, and Mahomes costing them less than
(33), whose guaranteed $51.4-million contract was the most 5% of the salary cap.
expensive of this past free agency period. Second, they traded But rookie quarterbacks are just part of a broader spectrum.
up for a non-quarterback in the first round and drafted for need And on the opposite end, the most expensive veteran contracts
with cornerback Kaiir Elam. Third, they spent a premium sec- have been as much poison pills for their teams as the rookie
ond-round draft pick on a non-premium position with running deals have been cheat codes for theirs. Since 2011, only 13%
back James Cook. And fourth, they spent a draft pick of any of quarterbacks with cap hits of at least 13% of the total cap
kind on a specialist when they took punter Matt Araiza in the have seen their teams reach a conference title game. And quar-
sixth round. terbacks on rookie or below-market-value deals—like Tom
Miller, Elam, Cook, and Araiza should address the few Brady for much of the 2010s—have been more the rule than
holes the Bills had for 2022. Miller and Elam replace depart- the exception among the final four playoff teams in that time
ed free agents Jerry Hughes and Levi Wallace in the starting (Table 1).
lineup. Hughes and Wallace led the Bills with 36 hurries and McDermott and Beane may already be over the 13 seconds,
5.0 yards allowed per target, respectively, both top-15 among but this other “13” is a pressing concern with Allen’s cap hit
qualifiers at their positions in 2021. Cook should replace the poised to escalate from 5.6% last year and 7.9% this year to
receiving back the Bills thought they signed when J.D. McK- 18.0% and 17.8% in 2023 and 2024.1 And that adds urgency
issic chose to return to Washington instead. He will offer Al- to the front of a believably much longer Bills championship
len more options from shotgun, which the Bills ran at a 74% window and justifies the all-in moves their front office made
rate that was eighth highest in football and makes them their this offseason.

1 2023-2024 cap estimates based on the average annual growth in the salary cap (since 2011) of 6.1%.
 BUFFALO BILLS 27

Table 1: QB Cap Hits, Final Four Teams, 2011-21

% of Cap Players
0.0 - 0.9% R.Wilson, SEA, 2013; R.Wilson, SEA, 2014
1.0 - 1.9% C.Kaepernick, SF, 2013
2.0 - 2.9% P.Mahomes, KC, 2018; P.Mahomes, KC, 2019; P.Mahomes, KC, 2020; R.Tannehill, TEN, 2019
3.0 - 3.9% J.Allen, BUF, 2020; C.Wentz, PHI, 2017; B.Bortles, JAX, 2017
4.0 - 4.9% A.Smith, SF, 2011; P.Mahomes, KC, 2021; J.Goff, LAR, 2018; J.Burrow, CIN, 2021; A.Luck, IND, 2014; J.Flacco, BAL, 2011
5.0 - 5.9% C.Palmer, ARI, 2015
6.0 - 6.9% T.Brady, NE, 2012; J.Flacco, BAL, 2012
7.0 - 7.9% A.Smith, SF, 2012
8.0 - 8.9% T.Brady, NE, 2017; T.Brady, NE, 2016
9.0 - 9.9% C.Newton, CAR, 2015; T.Brady, NE, 2015
10.0 - 10.9% J.Garoppolo, SF, 2019; T.Brady, NE, 2011; S.Bradford, MIN, 2017; A.Rodgers, GB, 2020
11.0 - 11.9% M.Stafford, LAR, 2021; T.Brady, NE, 2014; T.Brady, NE, 2013; M.Ryan, ATL, 2012; E.Manning, NYG, 2011
12.0 - 12.9% P.Manning, DEN, 2015; A.Rodgers, GB, 2016; T.Brady, NE, 2018; T.Brady, TB, 2020
13.0 - 13.9% A.Rodgers, GB, 2014; D.Brees, NO, 2018
14.0 - 14.9% P.Manning, DEN, 2013; J.Garoppolo, SF, 2021
15.0 - 15.9% M.Ryan, ATL, 2016; B.Roethlisberger, PIT, 2016; A.Rodgers, GB, 2019
Super Bowl champions in bold.

The Bills may be tired of looking up at the Chiefs, but away increases in the next few years that mirror Allen’s.
from the field, the Chiefs are already charting the path the Bills The Bills know better than most teams that sustained excel-
will likely follow with their quarterback contracts. The Chiefs lence is not a guarantee of ultimate success. The playoffs are
signed Mahomes to his extension a year earlier than the Bills somewhat random. Great teams can fall when they lose star
extended Allen. And while the former’s deal is big enough and players to injuries, turn the ball over, or run into the wrong op-
long enough for the team to repeatedly restructure it for short- ponent for their style of play. The Bills may see their last two
term cap relief like they did in 2021, the Chiefs illustrated playoff runs become the deepest of the Allen era and come
the limits of those accounting maneuvers this offseason. They to consider “13” as the “47” for a new generation of despon-
had the option to restructure Mahomes again and free the cap dent fans, but a history of heartbreak should not discourage
space to pay star receiver Tyreek Hill the $30-million annual the Bills from aiming for first place. The win-now moves they
contract he demanded, but head coach Andy Reid and general made this offseason will likely hurt their chances of Super
manager Brett Veach decided not to and instead traded Hill to Bowl titles as Allen enters his thirties, but with those moves,
the Dolphins. The Bills will face a similar decision as Stefon the Bills are our Super Bowl favorite this year, following a
Diggs balloons from an $11.7-million cap hit this season to proven blueprint of spending around a quarterback still on the
$20.3 million in 2023 and $26.5 million in 2024. And even if inexpensive side of the salary cap spectrum. And with a bit
they choose differently with Diggs than the Chiefs did with better luck, the Bills assistant coaches can jump and Allen’s
Hill, the Bills will have to shed some members of their cur- relatives can shake for much longer than 13 seconds this time.
rent core with blue-chip starters such as Tre’Davious White,
Jordan Poyer, and Von Miller also poised for cap-percentage Scott Spratt
28 BUFFALO BILLS

2021 Bills by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 PIT L 16% 16 23 371 252 -1 -28% -17% 4% -7% Total DVOA 9.7% 10 -18.0% 1
2 at MIA W 99% 35 0 314 216 1 32% -14% -48% -2% Unadjusted VOA 14.7% 7 -20.3% 1
3 WAS W 100% 43 21 481 290 3 61% 36% -24% 1% Weighted Trend 11.3% 8 -14.9% 3
4 HOU W 100% 40 0 450 109 4 121% 4% -113% 4% Variance 12.7% 31 13.8% 32
5 at KC W 100% 38 20 436 392 4 108% 86% -23% -2% Average Opponent 0.5% 20 -4.5% 31
6 at TEN L 25% 31 34 417 362 0 -19% 14% 35% 2%
7 BYE Passing 20.7% 13 -23.0% 1
8 MIA W 100% 26 11 351 262 2 45% 18% -19% 8% Rushing 2.8% 9 -11.9% 11
9 at JAX L 13% 6 9 301 218 -2 -50% -77% -23% 4%
First Down 4.0% 13 -11.5% 4
10 at NYJ W 100% 45 17 489 366 3 86% 52% -26% 9%
Second Down 14.2% 8 -23.7% 1
11 IND L 0% 15 41 311 370 -4 -75% -22% 32% -21%
Third Down 13.9% 7 -21.0% 4
12 at NO W 100% 31 6 361 190 -1 65% 16% -44% 4%
13 NE L 20% 10 14 230 241 0 11% -3% -18% -3% First Half -0.9% 16 -21.8% 1
14 at TB L 18% 27 33 466 488 -1 20% 19% 7% 8% Second Half 20.5% 2 -14.2% 4
15 CAR W 100% 31 14 312 275 0 33% 14% -19% 0%
16 at NE W 99% 33 21 428 288 2 69% 49% -10% 10% Red Zone 18.9% 4 -6.9% 12
17 ATL W 20% 29 15 351 265 -2 -21% -6% 9% -6% Late and Close 2.0% 19 -3.8% 11
18 NYJ W 100% 27 10 424 53 0 74% 3% -84% -13%
19 NE W 100% 47 17 482 305 2 138% 108% -25% 5%
20 at KC L 10% 36 42 422 552 0 -8% 27% 29% -6%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 6.3 6.8 302 359 +9 -10.7% 22 -11.1% 26 2.5% 18 2.9% 10 28.9 12 18.0 8 27.8 2 26.8 11 27.5 1
2018 6-10 5.0 6.4 269 374 -5 -18.6% 28 -27.5% 31 -14.0% 2 -5.1% 32 15.3 4 15.7 6 26.2 24 26.6 10 27.1 2
2019 10-6 9.8 7.6 314 259 +4 1.6% 13 -7.1% 21 -9.9% 7 -1.2% 21 46.5 20 18.1 3 26.7 16 26.4 14 27.2 2
2020 13-3 10.9 12.1 501 375 +4 23.8% 4 15.6% 5 -2.2% 12 5.9% 4 28.9 8 34.2 13 26.4 22 26.8 7 26.5 7
2021 11-6 13.3 11.0 483 289 +8 27.6% 2 9.7% 10 -18.0% 1 -0.1% 19 19.3 3 23.4 5 26.9 9 27.0 5 26.5 8

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

BUF Offense BUF Offense vs. Opponents BUF Defense BUF Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 70% 5.9 21.3% 27% Base 14% 6.0 16.7% 62% Base 5% 5.2 -14.4% 11 58% 5.1 -16.1%
21 8% 5.4 3.5% 60% Nickel 67% 5.9 10.7% 34% Nickel 92% 4.7 -18.4% 12 21% 4.0 -19.1%
10 7% 6.2 4.6% 21% Dime+ 18% 5.7 26.2% 15% Dime+ 3% 4.9 -44.5% 21 4% 4.1 -27.9%
12 6% 5.5 -23.0% 62% Goal Line 0% 0.2 17.4% 60% Goal Line 0% 0.8 48.1% 621 4% 5.8 4.4%
611 3% 5.4 -18.0% 71% 13 3% 3.5 3.2%
01 3% 4.6 -33.5%
 BUFFALO BILLS 29

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 31% 30 Form: Single Back 83% 15 Rush 3 0.8% 32 4 DB 5% 31 Play Action 33% 4
Runs, first down 39% 32 Form: Empty Back 7% 26 Rush 4 75.4% 9 5 DB 92% 1 Offensive Motion 39% 22
Runs, second-long 30% 16 Form: Multi Back 10% 14 Rush 5 17.6% 19 6+ DB 3% 27 Avg Box (Off) 6.33 28
Runs, power sit. 49% 29 Pers: 3+ WR 79% 2 Rush 6+ 6.2% 8 Man Coverage 30% 12 Avg Box (Def) 6.65 9
Runs, behind 2H 26% 21 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 13% 31 Edge Rusher Sacks 50.0% 19 CB by Sides 70% 20 Offensive Pace 30.24 9
Pass, ahead 2H 55% 5 Pers: 6+ OL 6% 8 Interior DL Sacks 24.4% 19 S/CB Cover Ratio 21% 26 Defensive Pace 31.86 25
Run-Pass Options 19% 6 Shotgun/Pistol 74% 8 Second Level Sacks 25.6% 8 DB Blitz 15% 4 Go for it on 4th 1.09 13

Every year, Josh Allen faces more defensive back blitzes than almost any other quarterback. Last year it was 15% of pass
plays, third in the league. Allen had struggled on these plays in 2018 and 2019, then was better in 2020. Last year, although
Allen had just 5.7 yards per play with a defensive back blitz, a lack of turnovers meant a 51.6% DVOA. Has Allen solved his
issues with defensive back blitzes, or did we see a one-year blip? 🏈 The Bills offense ranked 16th in DVOA for the first half
of games, then seventh in the third quarter and No. 1 in the fourth quarter or overtime. 🏈 Buffalo threw a league-low 13%
of passes to tight ends but ranked second (behind the Jets) throwing 29% of passes to players listed as “other” wide receivers
(not No. 1 or No. 2). 🏈 The Bills averaged 5.8 yards on RPOs, tied with the Eagles for the highest figure for any team that
used RPOs on at least 10% of plays. 🏈 Buffalo ranked second in the league with 154 broken tackles on offense, led by 52
for Devin Singletary (tied for fourth in the NFL), 22 for Zack Moss, and 20 for Stefon Diggs. However, these broken tackles
didn’t help the Bills gain yards after the catch, as they were dead last in the NFL with 4.2 average YAC. 🏈 The Bills used
nickel defense almost exclusively and had the league’s best DVOA (-18.4%) and fewest yards allowed per play (4.7) from
nickel personnel. 🏈 Buffalo had the best defensive DVOA in the league at -23.1% when sending four pass-rushers. They
allowed 5.0 yards per play with every other NFL defense at 5.7 or higher. 🏈 Buffalo kept its cornerbacks to specific sides
after Tre’Davious White’s injury, with the “CB by Sides” number going from 57% in Weeks 1 to 12 to 93% in Weeks 13 to 18.
🏈 The Bills led games for a league-leading average of 35:22 last season.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Allen 705 4.9% 672 4210 6.3 4.2 63.5% 36 15 S.Diggs 178 0.5% 164 103 1225 11.9 3.2 10 63%
M.Trubisky* -39 -89.2% 8 43 5.4 2.8 75.0% 0 1 C.Beasley* -46 -18.0% 112 82 693 8.5 3.7 1 73%
C.Keenum 84 5.8% 77 433 5.6 6.5 65.3% 3 1 E.Sanders* 131 11.8% 72 42 626 14.9 2.0 4 58%
G.Davis 111 9.2% 63 35 549 15.7 3.8 6 56%
I.McKenzie 40 6.2% 26 20 178 8.9 4.1 1 77%
Rushing J.Kumerow -5 -25.7% 6 2 28 14.0 3.5 0 33%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc J.Crowder 2 -12.3% 70 50 447 8.9 3.4 2 71%
D.Singletary 113 5.6% 188 870 4.6 7 2 50% T.Austin -31 -23.6% 37 24 213 8.9 2.8 1 65%
J.Allen 137 8.8% 110 770 7.0 6 5 - D.Knox 126 18.4% 71 49 587 12.0 5.7 9 69%
Z.Moss 30 -1.1% 96 345 3.6 4 0 51% T.Sweeney -46 -59.3% 12 9 44 4.9 1.6 1 75%
M.Breida* 15 5.0% 26 125 4.8 1 1 65% O.Howard 10 -0.6% 21 14 135 9.6 5.9 1 67%
I.McKenzie 49 87.8% 9 47 5.2 1 0 - D.Singletary -47 -31.1% 50 40 228 5.7 6.1 1 80%
D.Johnson 65 12.6% 71 330 4.6 3 0 55% Z.Moss 9 -8.8% 32 23 197 8.6 8.7 1 72%
C.Keenum 11 7.8% 8 26 3.3 0 0 - M.Breida* 35 52.8% 9 7 72 10.3 8.7 2 78%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Daryl Williams* RT/RG 30 17/17 1172 6 4.0 29 7 Jon Feliciano* LG 30 9/6 442 3 0.5 9 1
Mitch Morse C 30 17/17 1167 5 1.0 8 12 Ryan Bates LG/RG 25 17/4 294 1 0.0 5 4
Dion Dawkins LT 28 16/15 1089 9 3.5 14 12 David Quessenberry RT 32 17/17 1083 2 6.5 23 15
Spencer Brown RT/LT 24 13/10 726 8 0.5 22 2 Rodger Saffold LG 34 15/15 852 5 1.0 14 5
Ike Boettger LG 28 15/10 636 2 0.5 9 5 Greg Van Roten RG 32 17/10 698 2 3.0 17 10
Cody Ford RG 26 15/7 485 3 1.0 16 3 Greg Mancz C 30 5/4 185 0 0.0 2 1
30 BUFFALO BILLS
Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.26 4.32 15 58% 24 22% 28 1.27 10 0.78 17 8.6% 8 40 7.8% 23 31.6% 23 11.5% 6 37
2020 4.49 4.36 15 66% 17 17% 15 1.26 13 0.87 9 12.1% 27 27 4.8% 5 30.5% 27 14.1% 23 27
2021 4.29 4.40 12 67% 17 16% 12 1.16 22 0.68 14 11.8% 16 27 4.5% 2 28.9% 25 15.5% 26 24
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.14 (19) Left Tackle: 4.26 (18) Mid/Guard: 4.68 (6) Right Tackle: 3.97 (21) Right End: 4.10 (17)

The Bills have ranked worse in pressure rates (29.8%, 27th and 29.1%, 26th) than pass block win rates (64%, fourth and
64%, eighth) and adjusted sack rates (4.8%, fifth and 4.5%, second) over the last two seasons, a dissonance that quarterback
Josh Allen drives with his tendency to hold the ball to extend plays but Ben Roethlisberger-like ability to stay on his feet
through contact. 🏈 Jon Feliciano is the biggest Bills player to follow Brian Daboll to the Giants, both in size and in size of
contract ($3.25 million). But the Bills shouldn’t suffer too much for his departure. The team survived shoulder, pec, and quad
injuries that limited Feliciano to just nine games each of the last two seasons and still finished top five in adjusted sack rate.
🏈 Meanwhile, the team replaced Feliciano with an historically better player. Rodger Saffold was a Pro Bowler in 2021 and
has not blown 3.0% or more of his blocks in any of his last six seasons. The cash-strapped Titans needed to release Saffold to
save $10 million in cap space. And one imagines Saffold only joined the Bills at a discounted one-year, $6.25-million contract
because it brought him to a contender and reunited him with his former Rams offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, the top two
talking points of his introductory press conference. 🏈 The only incumbent Bills lineman with a Pro Bowl distinction is left
tackle Dion Dawkins. He enjoyed a late breakout in his fifth season in 2021. He blew just 1.8% of his pass blocks last season,
barely half of the 3.3% or greater rates he blew in his first four seasons. 🏈 What the Bills may lack in star power on their
line, they make up for in depth. Center Mitch Morse has blown less than 2.0% of his blocks in each of his three seasons as a
Bills starter. Right tackle Spencer Brown outproduced his third-round draft selection with a decent 3.6% blown block rate as a
rookie in 2021. Right guard Ryan Bates blew just 3.4% of his blocks in his first work as a starter in 2021 and prompted the Bills
to match a Bears offer sheet that earned Bates a raise to $5 million. 🏈 Despite the departure of veteran Daryl Williams, cut to
save more than $8 million in cap space, the team is poised to have capable starters on the bench including former second-round
pick Cody Ford, veteran Ike Boettger, and free-agent signings Greg Van Roten (ex-Jets) and David Quessenberry (ex-Titans).

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Ed Oliver 25 DT 17 623 43 5.4% 53 37 21 4 35 83% 7 1.4 4 4.0 9 20 3
Harrison Phillips* 26 DT 14 474 52 7.9% 7 39 10 4 47 77% 20 1.9 21 1.0 5 13 1
Star Lotulelei* 33 DT 11 317 17 3.3% 90 12 6 2 12 58% 82 2.6 53 3.0 1 7 0
Vernon Butler* 28 DT 10 285 11 2.3% 98 4 0 1 9 44% 100 4.3 98 0.0 1 5 0
DaQuan Jones 31 DT 17 641 38 4.6% 65 24 4 3 36 64% 74 1.9 20 1.0 6 13 0
Jordan Phillips 30 DE 9 284 24 5.3% 56 20 4 3 18 78% 15 2.4 39 3.0 1 7 2

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Jerry Hughes* 34 DE 17 558 21 2.6% 97 16 11 4 10 70% 54 1.9 19 2.0 5 36 3
Gregory Rousseau 22 DE 17 531 54 6.8% 21 47 16 2 43 86% 11 2.3 37 4.0 6 18 4
Mario Addison* 35 DE 17 482 29 3.6% 79 23 13 4 20 70% 54 3.3 75 7.0 1 28 0
A.J. Epenesa 24 DE 14 330 15 2.3% -- 13 6 5 11 91% -- 2.3 -- 1.5 7 13 1
Efe Obada* 30 DE 10 237 13 2.8% -- 11 6 3 4 100% -- 1.5 -- 3.5 5 8 1
Carlos Basham 25 DE 8 201 18 4.8% -- 11 5 1 13 62% -- 3.4 -- 2.5 1 5 0
Von Miller 33 OLB 15 764 51 6.2% 29 45 25 3 31 87% 9 0.9 5 9.5 8 30 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Matt Milano 28 OLB 16 916 91 12.1% 41 51 28 12 50 62% 25 4.2 60 3.0 4 9 41 68% 5 3.7 4 5 0
Tremaine Edmunds 24 MLB 15 873 112 15.9% 20 60 28 7 62 61% 27 3.7 33 0.0 1 8 31 39% 64 8.2 61 4 1
A.J. Klein* 31 OLB 15 277 38 5.4% -- 19 7 9 20 55% -- 4.9 -- 0.0 1 2 14 57% -- 5.1 -- 5 1
 BUFFALO BILLS 31
Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.37 4.15 12 59% 8 25% 4 1.32 26 0.90 26 10.2% 27 44 7.2% 13 31.1% 12 16.2% 7
2020 4.51 4.48 19 61% 7 19% 11 1.48 32 0.71 18 12.6% 16 38 6.8% 14 25.3% 15 12.8% 19
2021 4.20 3.64 4 74% 29 22% 3 1.15 13 0.98 31 16.4% 7 42 7.6% 7 31.1% 2 17.8% 1
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.04 (4) Left Tackle: 3.20 (2) Mid/Guard: 3.62 (3) Right Tackle: 4.25 (18) Right End: 4.10 (14)

The Bills’ 31.1% defensive pressure rate was second best in football in 2021, but that standing is threatened by the team’s
losses of Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. Hughes and Addison led the team with 36 and 28 hurries last season, and no other
defender had more than 20. 🏈 The Bills tried to offset their losses by adding Von Miller for $51 million, and they took
a bit of a risk. At 33 years old, Miller is just one year younger than Hughes, and he missed all of 2020 with an ankle injury.
Still, the Bills can be optimistic because Miller has always complemented his hurries with sacks. And he had 9.5 sacks in the
11 games last season that exclude the four (Weeks 10 to 14) that followed another ankle injury which clearly affected his play.
🏈 The Bills also have internal candidates to make up for lost pressure. Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham were first- and
second-round picks in 2021, and their totals of 18 and five hurries are encouraging considering they rushed the passer on just
246 and 96 snaps, respectively. Rousseau’s 7.3% hurry rate was tied for 24th among linemen with 200 or more pass rushes. And
third-round Baylor rookie Terrel Bernard had a 31% pressure rate that was second best among Division I outside linebackers,
although his smaller stature (6-foot-1 and 224 pounds) could limit him to special teams and sub packages at the next level. 🏈
The Bills matched their strong pass rush with a run defense that ranked fourth in adjusted line yards, and defensive tackle Ed
Oliver nearly doubled his previous career high (13) with 21 defeats. But the team also ranked bottom-five with a 74% power
success rate allowed, and teams such as the Titans, Colts, Patriots, and Bucs stayed ahead of the Bills with consistent conver-
sions in short-yardage situations. The good news for Buffalo is that allowing short-yardage success tends to regress towards the
mean. 🏈 With Buffalo’s consistent reliance on nickel personnel, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds had an outsized responsi-
bility in run defense and delivered with a 12.3% broken tackle rate that was 13th best among linebackers with 30 or more solo
tackles. He fared much worse in coverage with a 39% success rate. But his teammate Matt Milano made up for that deficiency
with a 68% coverage success rate and 3.7 yards allowed per target, both top-10 at the position. Milano has ranked top-10 in
coverage success rate each of the last four seasons.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Micah Hyde 32 FS 17 1024 84 10.5% 36 34 23 9 32 31% 45 8.9 58 22 6.6% 58 12.5 55% 38 8.4 52 10 5
Levi Wallace* 27 CB 17 994 67 8.4% 44 29 12 6 19 58% 15 3.4 6 60 18.6% 53 10.4 58% 21 5.0 6 10 2
Jordan Poyer 31 SS 16 984 98 13.0% 13 33 20 9 46 33% 44 7.5 41 24 7.5% 48 12.5 63% 18 3.3 1 9 5
Taron Johnson 26 CB 16 878 83 11.0% 9 44 20 11 32 63% 7 3.2 5 40 14.0% 77 8.2 70% 1 5.4 12 7 1
Tre'Davious White 27 CB 11 629 47 9.1% 36 21 9 9 13 46% 37 5.6 34 52 25.5% 6 9.1 62% 14 5.1 7 6 1
Dane Jackson 26 CB 17 484 43 5.4% -- 17 5 2 19 37% -- 6.7 -- 33 21.0% -- 12.4 52% -- 7.8 -- 6 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 5 -32.8% 2 -20.7% 4 -8.1% 12 -24.4% 6 -16.7% 3 -0.3% 14 -5.8% 14
2020 12 13.0% 23 -22.8% 3 -21.7% 4 -4.4% 10 -8.9% 6 -2.6% 13 -3.5% 15
2021 1 -9.6% 9 -47.1% 1 -34.6% 1 -43.3% 1 -19.0% 2 -8.0% 13 -7.1% 16

Tre’Davious White matched his former All-Pro standard with a top-10 rate of 5.1 yards per target when he played in 2021,
but he tore his ACL in Week 12 and missed the rest of the season and playoffs. Sean McDermott told reporters in late May that
White was on schedule in his recovery, which would presumably have him back at the start of the 2022 season. 🏈 The Bills
remained surprisingly effective in pass defense after White’s injury. Some of that was the frequent pass pressure. Some was the
coverage skills of safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. But some was also cornerbacks Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson, who
finished sixth and 12th at the position with 5.0 and 5.4 yards per target. 🏈 Wallace parlayed his strong play into a multi-year
deal with the Steelers, and that prompted the Bills to trade up and draft cornerback Kaiir Elam from Florida with the 23rd pick.
At 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, Elam will add both size and pedigree that the Bills lacked in the secondary apart from White. Even
Wallace was originally a UDFA. 🏈 If Elam struggles out of the gate, the Bills have few compelling alternatives. Third-year
cornerback Dane Jackson and rookie Christian Benford are seventh- and sixth-round draft selections, respectively. And Jack-
son lends the Bills 484 of their just 500 career defensive snaps at outside corner behind White. 🏈 Hyde and Poyer do not
stand out in any one metric, but they earned their second- and first-team All-Pro distinctions with contributions in all facets of
defense. They tied for 16th among defensive backs with six hurries apiece. They tied for fourth with five interceptions. They
32 BUFFALO BILLS

finished 38th and 18th with 55% and 63% coverage success rates. And they spurred the team’s outlier success against deep
passes (16-plus air yards). Including DPIs, the Bills allowed just 7.2 yards per attempt on these passes. Every other defense in
the league allowed at least 10 yards per attempt and the NFL average was 12.4 yards.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -1.2% 21 3.2 12 -5.1 29 4.1 6 -9.4 29 1.2 12 15.5 1
2020 5.9% 4 1.2 14 10.0 1 6.5 5 3.8 9 8.0 2 -7.2 25
2021 -0.1% 19 2.4 12 6.4 4 0.6 13 -9.0 30 -1.0 21 -4.7 22

Kicker Tyler Bass has drawn a touchback on 63.5% of his kickoffs in two professional seasons, an improvement over Stephen
Hauschka’s 57.5% rate from 2019. The team’s top-five finish in kickoff value over the last two years has also been spurred by
strong kickoff coverage, as the Bills ranked second (2020) and third (2021) in preventing kick return value when Bass didn’t
manage to put it through the end zone. 🏈 Perhaps emboldened by Bass’ success, the Bills spent another sixth-round pick on
a special teams player this offseason, this time on “Punt God” Matt Araiza. Araiza earned his nickname thanks to some massive
punts in his time at San Diego State, including two punts of more than 80 yards last season. He set the NCAA record with 51.2
yards per punt in 2021. Any punter may be a reach in the sixth round, but it was a surprise that Araiza was just the third punter
selected in 2022. 🏈 Isaiah McKenzie returned one punt in 2020, which he took for 84 yards and a touchdown thanks to five
different broken tackles. And while the play may have earned him the job after the departure of former All-Pro returner Andre
Roberts, McKenzie couldn’t duplicate the success in 2021 with just 7.7 yards per punt return and a long of 26. He and Marquez
Stevenson both muffed some punts and at times lost their jobs as returners. If Sean McDermott remains frustrated with their ball
security, he may turn to fifth-round rookie receiver Khalil Shakir. Shakir averaged 12.8 yards on his nine punt returns for Boise
State in 2021. 🏈 Tyler Matakevich played just 43 defensive snaps last season but he earns his roster spot with exceptional
special teams play. His 77 special teams tackles are the most in football since he entered the league in 2016.
 Carolina Panthers
2021 record: 5-12 Total DVOA: -24.2% (27) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.1 wins On the Clock (0-5): 28%
Pythagorean Wins: 5.7 (26) Offense: -22.8% (31) Postseason Odds: 23.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 44%
Snap-Weighted Age: 25.8 (30) Defense: -0.2% (15) Super Bowl Odds: 1.3% Playoff Contender (9-11): 23%
Average Opponent: 0.7% (14) Special Teams: -1.6% (24) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.3% (13) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 5%

2021: If you’ve got quarterback problems, I feel bad for you son.

2022: Need a payoff now, or we’re on to the next one.

M att Rhule took the podium late in December facing ques-

tions about the future of both the Panthers and himself.
After a 3-0 start had Carolina the talk of the league, the Pan-
In the NFL, results are expected immediately, and Rhule
has yet to put together a squad that can either win or look
good in defeat. He doesn’t have seven years. He may not have
thers had crumbled to 5-10 and had just been embarrassed by seven more weeks. Rhule is on the hottest of hot seats, as his
the Buccaneers. “Fire Rhule” chants had broken out through- blueprint for rebuilding isn’t working. Without significant,
out Bank of America Stadium, and Rhule was being asked to tangible improvement right from the gun this season, there’s
defend his vision for the team going forward. Rhule found his very little reasonable doubt that there will be a new man in
perspective from an unlikely source. charge for 2023.
“I believe [our rebuild is] 1,000% working. I just know no The Panthers were not acting like a rebuilding team last sea-
one can see it, and I apologize. As I tell our team all the time, son, which just compounds their woes. Rebuilding teams do
it took Jay-Z like seven years. He had to start his own agency not send multiple draft picks and lock in fifth-year options on
to become famous, to become an overnight sensation. It takes underwhelming cast-off quarterbacks. The Sam Darnold deal
time, but I will finish by saying I respect the fight.” was questioned at the time and only looks worse consider-
Rhule opened himself to plenty of ridicule for this updated ing Darnold’s actual performance last season. Nor do they get
version of the “Rome wasn’t built in a day” cliché. It doesn’t suckered in by phantom hot starts. The Panthers were punch-
really work, either—Jay-Z wasn’t gifted a seven-year, $62-mil- ing significantly above their weight during their 3-0 start last
lion contract when trying to make it big, nor did he have the sort season, with wins against the bottom-feeding Texans and Jets.
of track record Rhule brought with him from winning titles and At the time, Carolina ranked just 16th in our DAVE rankings,
awards at Temple and Baylor. It’s an odd attempt to simultane- which account for preseason forecasts. Instead of acknowl-
ously lower and raise expectations. Rhule’s not some unknown edging the early success as a promising sign but likely not
trying to earn a foothold in the coaching biz. He was brought in a sustainable one, the Panthers sent more picks chasing af-
specifically because he can turn teams around fast. Downplay- ter Henderson, who struggled as he got used to the Carolina
ing things as if he were some kid on his first assignment isn’t defensive system. The Panthers collapsed down to their true
being honest with the fan base. And encouraging those fans to talent level, ranking dead last in DVOA from Week 4 onward.
wait because good things are bound to happen is a hard sell The Panthers entered the offseason with the third-least draft
when there has been no evidence to support that yet. capital in the league, as well as just $11.6 million of effective
Rhule is the only coach in the league with two consecutive cap space. The Rams were the only team to have both less
years missing the playoffs. He’s coming off of back-to-back draft capital and cap space, and their roster was ever-so-slight-
five-win seasons, a situation which gets most coaches fired. ly more talented than Carolina’s. Other teams that ranked low
DVOA says that the Panthers took a significant step back in in both draft capital and cap space included franchises such as
Rhule’s second season, falling from -6.7% to -24.2%. It’s the the Buccaneers, Packers, and 49ers—in other words, playoff
first time since 2002-2004 the Panthers have been below av- teams. No one combined a lack of hope for the future with a
erage for three years in a row, and yet they’re not really re- lack of success in the present quite like the Panthers.
building. They traded away gobs of future draft capital for Considering the difficult situation they put themselves in,
Sam Darnold and CJ Henderson, hamstringing their ability Rhule and general manager Scott Fitterer did a solid job re-
to improve the team this offseason. Rhule has already had to building the roster for 2022. The Panthers improved across the
resort to firing staff members as scapegoats, with the once- offensive line. They bolstered their skill positions, resigning
wunderkind Joe Brady being shown the door in December. DJ Moore and bringing in D’Onta Foreman as insurance for
There are rumors that owner David Tepper is displeased with the wonderful, if always injured, Christian McCaffrey. They
the state of his franchise. The fact that he had to call Rhule to added some key cogs to a defense that was young and flashed
assure him that he wasn’t going after Sean Payton in the after- quality play at times last season. These are all praiseworthy
math of his sudden retirement is not exactly a thrilling vote of moves, and we’ll get to praising them momentarily.
confidence for Rhule’s future with the club. That left a gaping hole at the most important position, how-
33
34 CAROLINA PANTHERS

2021 CAR DVOA by Week

2022 Panthers Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%
60%
1 CLE 7 TB 13 BYE
40%
2 at NYG 8 at ATL 14 at SEA
3 NO 9 at CIN 15 PIT 20%

4 ARI 10 ATL (Thu.) 16 DET (Sat.) 0%

5 SF 11 at BAL 17 at TB -20%
6 at LAR 12 DEN 18 at NO -40%
-60%
-80%
ever, as it looked through Independence Day like the Pan- -100%
thers would actually be going into 2022 with Sam Darnold -120%

and third-round pick Matt Corral as their quarterbacks. That

would have put them squarely in the running for the worst
quarterback room in the league, which in turn would have put
them squarely in the running for the worst team in the league. With Mayfield reportedly healthy and ready to go, Panthers
That would have been a defensible move if everyone was on fans can reasonably expect the version of Mayfield we saw
board with 2022 being a rebuilding year. But another five-win in 2020. And all it cost was a conditional pick two years from
season almost assuredly spells doom for Rhule’s tenure, and now. If Mayfield does end up being a disaster and doesn’t
sticking with Darnold and Corral would have spotted him the work, it’s really a no-harm, no-foul situation; it’s not like the
D and a couple of O’s. Darnold trade, where the future of the franchise was mort-
That’s why, on July 6, as the Almanac was up against dead- gaged on the hopes they could develop something that had
line, the Panthers finally made a move at the quarterback posi- never been there before. Mayfield has proven he can be a fine
tion. Baker Mayfield, spurned by the Cleveland Browns after NFL quarterback, and a contending team with a gap at quar-
they made their move for Deshaun Watson, is now in Caro- terback could do far worse than grabbing Baker Mayfield.
lina, arriving in exchange for a 2024 conditional fifth-round The problem is that the Panthers were not a contending
pick and an agreement for Cleveland to eat part of his salary. team or a quarterback away from being a contending team.
This happened very late in the offseason, so our projections Upgrading from Darnold to Mayfield probably locks up third
don’t actually account for the Mayfield trade—there was a place in the NFC South, but they don’t make banners for that.
question about whether we could even fit the news into this Mayfield is a fine quarterback, but he’s not more than that.
essay, much less run the thousands of simulations needed to His career high-water mark in DVOA is the 8.1% he put up as
accurately account for a last-second change at QB1. As an ad a rookie, and while he has improved as a player since then—
hoc adjustment, you can raise the Panthers’ floor substantially. learning to throw the ball away, find his checkdown receivers,
Before the trade, the next page and a half of this chapter had and rely on his running game—he’s not the kind of player
been dedicated to Darnold’s place in the history of terrible who is going to single-handedly elevate his surrounding tal-
quarterbacks, and how he joined Rick Mirer as the only play- ent. Our KUBIAK projections have him with a -8.6% passing
ers to have a passing DVOA of -10.0% or worse while qualify- DVOA in Carolina compared to the -22.6% Darnold would be
ing for our leaderboards in each of their first four seasons, and projected with, so it’s a step up but not a giant leap forwards.
he’s second to only Blaine Gabbert for worst career DVOA There’s a reason that Cleveland felt the need to trade so many
for a quarterback with at least 1,000 pass attempts. There was draft picks and spend ungodly amounts of money to improve
very little justification for going into the season with Darnold at the position. And while Mayfield’s improved floor will like-
as QB1, and if you need more evidence of that, you can look ly result in better football and be a big help for Rhule’s job
at the Panthers trying to consummate the Mayfield trade on security, it’s hard to argue that adding him significantly moves
and off since the draft. the needle on the Panthers’ future. Because it cost them es-
Even the injured version of Mayfield we saw last season sentially nothing, you can’t really criticize the move, but this
would be a substantial improvement over Darnold. Mayfield is more of a “sure, why not?” decision rather than something
struggled through much of 2021 after tearing his labrum in his to get inordinately excited about.
non-throwing shoulder, finishing 23rd with a -8.0% DVOA. That’s assuming Mayfield is, in fact, the starter when Car-
You can make the argument that Mayfield should have been olina hosts Cleveland in Week 1. Because the Browns and
shut down well before the end of the year as he just clearly Panthers spent months dickering over the exact terms of the
wasn’t right. His DVOA dropped to -16.5% after reaggravat- swap, by the time it was done there were only 67 days before
ing the injury in Week 6 and all the way to -23.2% after his opening day. Mayfield missed all of OTAs and the manda-
Week 10 knee injury. Because the Browns were still limp- tory minicamp and will basically arrive at training camp at the
ing around in playoff contention until the end of the year, the end of July starting from square one. Two months should be
Browns kept trotting Mayfield out there, but he just wasn’t enough time for Mayfield to learn the playbook and get ready,
physically able to perform anywhere near his regular level. but that’s an unusually short amount of time to get your Week
 CAROLINA PANTHERS 35

1 starter up to speed—which might be why the Panthers have reason why Corral is not a reasonable option to start right off
not yet committed to Mayfield actually starting the season, the bat. He needs time and reps in more complicated concepts
setting up a potential training camp battle as they reportedly in order to succeed in the NFL.
have no intention to also move on from Darnold. Corral does have significant arm talent, and the RPOs he
Even if Mayfield does end up starting right away, there may was asked to run at Ole Miss weren’t just screens and quick
be style clashes with Ben McAdoo’s system. McAdoo’s pre- outs; they were designed to attack the whole field. He has
draft comments on Mayfield from 2018 went viral in the after- demonstrated an ability to make plays with his feet and keep
math of the trade. McAdoo said at the time that he “didn’t see a calm when moving out of the pocket. There are developmen-
lot of pro-style football in [Mayfield’s] tape. … I didn’t think he tal properties here, but it’s going to take time to turn him from
was a great athlete. This guy is kinda like a pocket quarterback mere distributor to actual NFL quarterback. It will also take
that is short and with small hands, that’s what I worry about.” a willingness from McAdoo to adjust his play calling to Cor-
It’s not that McAdoo’s view of the 2018 draft class will influ- ral’s strengths. All the same concerns we had about Mayfield’s
ence his treatment of Mayfield (though if he goes out and picks fit apply to Corral as well, and you can add in the lack of de-
up Josh Rosen to complete a trifecta of 2018 prospects, look signed quarterback runs in McAdoo’s history to Corral’s pile.
out). But it is relevant that McAdoo looked at Mayfield coming Bringing in Mayfield means that Carolina doesn’t have to rush
out of college and didn’t see someone who could work in his Corral into action, which is good—there’s a lot of work that
system. Now that they have to coexist in Carolina. needs to be done before he’s ready. He’s a long-term invest-
Mayfield has been more successful working with play-action ment, not a quick-fix patch.
and pre-snap motion throughout his career. In 2020, Cleveland’s Whatever quarterback ends up starting should get help from
passing DVOA jumped from 15.5% to 27.7% when using play- the return of Christian McCaffrey. Theoretically, at least. Mc-
action, with Mayfield making consistent big plays through the Caffrey has been phenomenal when healthy, but he has played
air while opponents crowded the line of scrimmage to stop Nick just 10 games in the last two years. He has suffered a laundry
Chubb and Kareem Hunt. McAdoo’s teams in New York were list of injuries, and the worst part is that they’re mostly re-
well behind the curve on play-action usage, ranking 23rd, 29th, peated ankle and soft tissue injuries as opposed to something
and 21st in play-action frequency from 2015 to 2017. Nor does major but nonpredictive such as broken ribs.
McAdoo have much of a history sending his receivers in mo- McCaffrey led the league with 403 touches in 2019, and his
tion; the Giants were in the bottom third of the league in that 729 touches in 2018 and 2019 were second behind Ezekiel El-
category throughout McAdoo’s tenure. liott, who has struggled with injury issues of his own since then.
McAdoo instead wants his quarterbacks to run a rhythm- That’s a lot, but it’s not unheard of. There have been 122 backs
and timing-based offense, to the point where he revamped Eli in the DVOA era with at least 700 touches over two consecutive
Manning’s game to emphasize getting rid of the ball quickly. seasons. Those players saw their workload drop by an average
Manning averaged 2.5 seconds before throwing the ball with of 215 touches over the next two seasons as age and wear and
McAdoo as head coach, per Next Gen Stats; Mayfield has av- tear built up on them, so some decline was always expected.
eraged 2.9 seconds in his career. Add in Mayfield’s struggles But we’re not interested in players who slowly ramped down.
under pressure the last two years, and Carolina’s struggles last We want to compare McCaffrey to players who were worked
season preventing pressure, and you have a bit of a case of a hard and then missed significant time.
square peg being forced into a round hole. The peg is of much But there really aren’t any. Of those 122 backs, only 14
higher quality, mind you, but this isn’t a case where the Pan- went from 700 touches in two years to less than 300 touches
thers found their guy and are satisfied going forward; this is a in the next two. Of those 14, only seven were in their first 10
case of Mayfield basically being the last guy in the bar at clos- seasons, as most of the older players were approaching retire-
ing time, and going home with Darnold again was unthinkable ment age anyway, rather than being in their theoretical primes
And, of course, the extra reps taken up by a quarterback like McCaffrey. Of those seven, only three attempted to re-
battle or by Mayfield getting comfortable in the system won’t turn to football after losing a ton of workload, as the other
mean great things for Matt Corral, either. The Panthers were four were too injured to consider playing. And of those three,
fortunate that Corral fell all the way to the third round, as tak- two of them missed time due to non-football reasons, with
ing a chance on the Mississippi product with the 94th pick in both Ricky Williams and Travis Henry dealing with marijuana
the draft is a much safer investment then grabbing him sixth fights against the league. That just leaves Terrell Davis, who
overall. Corral dropped in large part because there’s an im- ended up having multiple knee injuries and never truly got
pression that all he can do are RPOs and play-action pass- healthy again after his brief stint of dominating the league
es—single reads and simple decision-making. Corral used from 1996 to 1998. His best season after that was 2001, when
play-action on over 60% of his dropbacks last season, more he got 167 carries but averaged just 4.2 yards and still missed
than any other quarterback in FBS, per SIS. More than 35% half the year with yet more knee surgeries.
of his passes downfield were RPOs, and his completion rate The Panthers are doing everything they can to protect Mc-
fell to 55.8% when asked to drop back traditionally and look Caffrey short of encasing him in carbonite. He won’t play
downfield. When asked to process coverages at an NFL level, at all in the preseason, and they’re going to take a “differ-
Corral’s decision-making has been questionable at best. Some ent approach” to using him in practices. They went out and
of that may be due to a lack of practice, but that’s just another grabbed Foreman for insurance, as he has experience filling in
36 CAROLINA PANTHERS

for injured workhorses. But there’s only so much you can do board. They were in the bottom 10 in snap-weighted age at
to make up for the fact that McCaffrey has suffered extreme edge rusher, the interior line, and in the secondary, with only
wear and tear. What Carolina needs to do is to find ways to 27-year-old Shaq Thompson weighing them down at line-
spell McCaffrey when he’s in the game—stop using him in backer. When Thompson counts as one of your oldest players,
garbage time, spell him more with Foreman and Chuba Hub- you know there’s a youth movement going on. The Panthers
bard to keep his legs and knees fresh, and don’t come any- do not have a single projected defensive starter older than
where close to giving him 53% of touches like he had in 2019. 29-year-old Damien Wilson. There’s reason to hope that extra
These aren’t the kinds of concerns you want to have about a experience will help this young defense continue to improve
running back who just turned 25 and you’re paying $16 mil- and stave off some of the forces of regression to the mean.
lion a year, but getting half of McCaffrey’s previous workload Brian Burns remains one of the best young pass-rushers in
over a full season is much more valuable than getting 2019 the game. Jaycee Horn looked phenomenal in September be-
McCaffrey for four games before his hamstring snaps once fore his rookie season was cut short by injury. Jeremy Chinn
more. It’s also not a situation you want to be worrying about is a do-it-all hybrid player who can make an impact anywhere
while trying to take pressure off of your underwhelming quar- he lines up. The combination of Derrick Brown and free-agent
terback position, but relying on McCaffrey to carry this team addition Matt Ioannidis makes for a pocket-collapsing inte-
is asking for trouble. rior force. The question marks on defense are along the lines
There are, fortunately, some bright spots we can highlight of whether or not players can continue their success in larger
on the offense. Re-signing DJ Moore to a long-term deal just roles—Horn playing for a full season, Yetur Gross-Matos
before the receiver market entered crazytown was fantastic tim- stepping into Reddick’s shoes, and so forth. That’s a refresh-
ing. And the offensive line got three upgrades with first-round ing change from the uncertainty of the offense as a whole and
pick Ikem Ekwonu and free agents Bradley Bozeman and Aus- the depressing state of the quarterback room in general.
tin Corbett. The line really needed four upgrades, but the three But even if the defense plays like it did last season—even
newcomers plus Taylor Moton and the winner of the left guard if it actually improves and becomes a top-10 unit—it’s very,
competition should be a massive improvement over the unit very difficult to find reasons for optimism as we enter Rhule’s
that allowed 28.5 sacks on blown blocks alone in 2021. third year at the helm. Is a rebuild that no one sees working re-
If the Panthers are going to save Rhule’s job, however, it’s ally a rebuild, or is it just puttering around, waiting for some-
not going to be because of the offense. Carolina’s defense was thing fortunate to happen?
the talk of September. During their 3-0 start, Carolina led the Perhaps that will pay off. Perhaps a healthy Mayfield can
league with a -27.1% defensive DVOA, allowing fewer than find the form that helped him lead the Browns to the playoffs
four yards per play, harassing opposing quarterbacks, and shut- in 2020, even if he doesn’t get to play in the Cleveland scheme
ting down passing lanes left and right. They couldn’t sustain behind the Cleveland offensive line. Perhaps the fifth time is a
that success for a full season, of course; injuries piled up in the charm for Darnold. Perhaps Corral’s RPO success is immedi-
secondary, and the defense was stuck on the field longer as the ately translatable to the NFL in ways that third-round passers
offense floundered. Still, they finished the season with their best rarely are. Perhaps McCaffrey’s health issues are firmly in the
defensive DVOA since 2017, a refreshing change from recent past, and he’ll be back to the superstar he was before he spent
history that started out bad and only went downhill from there. more time on the trainer’s table than in the backfield.
Our projections have Carolina’s defense regressing this sea- But seeing the Panthers contending for nine wins, much less
son, in part because defense is less consistent from year to a wild card, takes a degree of magical thinking that’s beyond
year and in part because they should feel the loss of Haason us. The likely best-case scenario for the Panthers season is
Reddick quite acutely. Still, there are more reasons to be op- another step forward for the defense, a year of health for the
timistic here, in part because so many of Carolina’s key con- skill-position players, and a clean slate for next year’s head
tributors are young and should theoretically continue to im- coach to start cleaning up the debris of the Rhule era.
prove. Carolina had the eighth-youngest defense in the league
last season, with that youth spread out fairly evenly across the Bryan Knowles
 CAROLINA PANTHERS 37

2021 Panthers by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 NYJ W 98% 19 14 381 252 0 8% -9% -19% -2% Total DVOA -22.8% 31 -0.2% 15
2 NO W 100% 26 7 383 128 1 77% 21% -73% -17% Unadjusted VOA -25.2% 31 -1.2% 12
3 at HOU W 93% 24 9 407 193 0 3% -1% -4% 0% Weighted Trend -30.2% 31 4.3% 23
4 at DAL L 0% 28 36 379 433 -2 -41% -1% 37% -3% Variance 11.1% 28 9.9% 30
5 PHI L 4% 18 21 267 273 -1 -39% -56% -23% -7% Average Opponent -2.3% 4 -1.7% 26
6 MIN L 2% 28 34 306 571 -2 -54% -31% 25% 2%
7 at NYG L 0% 3 25 173 302 -1 -87% -65% 20% -2% Passing -24.2% 32 6.8% 18
8 at ATL W 98% 19 13 332 213 1 4% -24% -21% 6% Rushing -11.5% 21 -8.2% 15
9 NE L 0% 6 24 240 273 -1 -37% -68% -26% 5%
First Down -13.7% 27 1.6% 15
10 at ARI W 100% 34 10 341 169 0 82% 12% -63% 7%
Second Down -19.1% 29 -3.4% 14
11 WAS L 46% 21 27 297 369 1 -1% 21% 25% 3%
Third Down -44.3% 32 1.2% 20
12 at MIA L 0% 10 33 198 315 -2 -122% -93% 16% -14%
13 BYE First Half -12.9% 25 -13.4% 4
14 ATL L 6% 21 29 334 318 -2 -55% -29% 26% 0% Second Half -33.7% 32 13.5% 30
15 at BUF L 0% 14 31 275 312 0 -19% -17% -3% -5%
16 TB L 0% 6 32 273 391 -1 -59% -59% 1% 2% Red Zone -7.2% 21 29.1% 31
17 at NO L 1% 10 18 178 280 -2 -36% -34% -4% -7% Late and Close -17.9% 29 36.6% 32
18 at TB L 0% 17 41 317 409 -2 -24% -5% 25% 6%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 11-5 9.0 10.3 363 327 -1 12.6% 9 -0.1% 17 -8.0% 8 4.7% 6 30.1 14 10.3 5 26.3 25 28.4 1 26.6 4
2018 7-9 7.8 7.7 376 382 +1 0.3% 14 6.0% 11 5.5% 23 -0.2% 18 51.1 25 51.5 27 26.7 16 28.9 1 26.6 5
2019 5-11 4.9 4.0 340 470 -14 -26.5% 29 -14.4% 27 8.0% 26 -4.1% 31 36.5 14 29.7 14 26.1 27 27.4 2 26.0 12
2020 5-11 6.6 6.4 350 402 +1 -6.7% 21 -0.2% 17 7.3% 24 0.8% 16 34.1 14 38.9 16 26.8 13 25.2 30 25.9 18
2021 5-12 5.7 4.2 304 404 -13 -24.2% 27 -22.8% 31 -0.2% 15 -1.6% 24 43.5 18 37.2 18 25.9 26 25.7 25 25.8 21

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

CAR Offense CAR Offense vs. Opponents CAR Defense CAR Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 66% 4.5 -26.3% 29% Base 24% 5.0 -7.7% 59% Base 21% 4.7 -2.3% 11 47% 5.7 8.4%
12 18% 4.9 -12.6% 50% Nickel 62% 4.8 -17.2% 34% Nickel 62% 5.3 0.0% 12 28% 4.8 -8.8%
21 9% 5.8 11.9% 60% Dime+ 12% 3.1 -68.8% 2% Dime+ 16% 5.7 7.7% 21 9% 5.0 -7.2%
22 4% 4.9 19.1% 69% Goal Line 0% -0.8 -62.7% 100% Goal Line 1% 3.1 -34.1% 22 3% 5.4 8.8%
13 1% 2.5 -56.6% 85% Big 2% 4.9 7.1% 85% 612 3% 4.7 0.9%
20 1% 5.8 14.3% 0% 13 3% 6.3 14.8%
611 3% 4.3 -15.4%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 43% 6 Form: Single Back 85% 10 Rush 3 5.2% 14 4 DB 21% 23 Play Action 24% 24
Runs, first down 49% 15 Form: Empty Back 7% 24 Rush 4 65.2% 24 5 DB 62% 15 Offensive Motion 45% 16
Runs, second-long 23% 24 Form: Multi Back 8% 16 Rush 5 23.0% 9 6+ DB 16% 16 Avg Box (Off) 6.58 9
Runs, power sit. 69% 5 Pers: 3+ WR 67% 11 Rush 6+ 6.6% 7 Man Coverage 33% 9 Avg Box (Def) 6.71 3
Runs, behind 2H 22% 31 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 25% 25 Edge Rusher Sacks 75.6% 3 CB by Sides 60% 25 Offensive Pace 31.32 18
Pass, ahead 2H 46% 18 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 28 Interior DL Sacks 14.1% 27 S/CB Cover Ratio 31% 9 Defensive Pace 31.17 19
Run-Pass Options 14% 11 Shotgun/Pistol 66% 13 Second Level Sacks 10.3% 24 DB Blitz 13% 10 Go for it on 4th 0.91 24
38 CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina was by far the worst offense in the league on deep passes of 16 or more air yards. The Panthers had 8.0 yards per pass
attempt on these throws compared to an NFL average of 12.4 yards. The gap in DVOA between Carolina and No. 31 Jacksonville
was roughly equal to the difference in DVOA between Jacksonville and No. 17 Denver. 🏈 Carolina had the largest gap in the
league in DVOA between runs against heavy boxes of eight or more (-39.3% DVOA, 3.0 yards per carry) and other runs (-8.0%
DVOA, 4.1 yards per carry). 🏈 Carolina had a league-worst -16.5% DVOA when Sam Darnold faced the standard four pass-
rushers. 🏈 The Panthers defense used dime personnel less than half as often as it did in 2020, while using base personnel four
times as often. 🏈 The Panthers also used man coverage far more often than the year before, going from last in the league at
17% of passes in 2020 to ninth at 33% of passes in 2021. 🏈 Carolina ranked first in defensive DVOA in the first quarter, then
15th in the second quarter and 30th after halftime. So much for opponents letting up because the Panthers were losing late.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
S.Darnold -558 -31.6% 441 2310 5.2 5.7 60.1% 9 13 DJ Moore 22 -10.9% 163 93 1157 12.4 4.5 4 57%
C.Newton* -243 -39.3% 136 601 4.4 4.5 54.8% 4 5 R.Anderson -176 -33.7% 110 53 519 9.8 3.0 5 48%
P.J.Walker -121 -40.9% 72 315 4.4 3.8 55.4% 1 3 T.Marshall -70 -42.3% 30 17 138 8.1 3.7 0 57%
B.Mayfield 94 -8.0% 459 2731 5.9 5.5 61.0% 17 13 B.Zylstra 69 23.7% 25 18 250 13.9 6.6 1 72%
S.Smith -8 -22.1% 11 6 104 17.3 11.8 0 55%
K.Kirkwood -28 -61.2% 7 3 17 5.7 5.3 0 43%
Rushing R.Higgins -16 -16.9% 47 24 275 11.5 1.7 1 51%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc T.Tremble -36 -24.0% 35 20 180 9.0 3.5 1 57%
C.Hubbard -42 -14.3% 172 612 3.6 5 1 44% I.Thomas -26 -21.9% 30 18 188 10.4 5.1 0 60%
C.McCaffrey 62 7.0% 99 442 4.5 1 1 52% D.Arnold* -14 -25.9% 11 7 84 12.0 4.1 0 64%
C.Newton* 3 -11.0% 45 221 4.9 5 4 - A.Abdullah* 50 5.8% 49 35 272 7.8 7.9 1 71%
A.Abdullah* -20 -18.6% 44 136 3.1 0 0 43% C.McCaffrey 116 33.8% 41 37 343 9.3 7.0 1 90%
S.Darnold 55 10.2% 40 228 5.7 5 2 - C.Hubbard 11 -8.1% 37 25 174 7.0 6.9 1 68%
R.Freeman* -10 -18.6% 21 77 3.7 0 0 48% R.Freeman* -10 -46.2% 6 3 15 5.0 3.7 0 50%
DJ Moore 37 34.9% 8 48 6.0 0 0 - D.Foreman 63 85.3% 11 9 123 13.7 13.8 0 82%
D.Foreman 50 0.5% 133 566 4.3 3 2 52%
B.Mayfield 2 -11.0% 29 142 4.9 1 1 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Taylor Moton RT 28 17/17 1149 4 2.5 15 5 Pat Elflein C/LG 28 9/9 534 2 1.5 6 6
Michael Jordan LG 24 11/10 703 5 3.5 14 4 Brady Christensen LT 26 16/6 480 2 4.5 16 3
John Miller* RG 29 10/10 656 3 4.0 8 4 Trenton Scott* RG 28 14/5 335 3 0.5 4 3
Cameron Erving LT 30 9/9 589 4 4.5 14 11 Bradley Bozeman C 28 16/16 1127 0 1.5 8 5
Dennis Daley LG/LT 26 15/9 573 9 5.0 20 5 Austin Corbett RG 27 17/17 1080 2 1.5 16 12
Matt Paradis* C 33 9/9 568 1 3.0 7 5

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.84 4.30 17 43% 32 18% 10 1.20 15 1.26 1 10.2% 16 58 8.6% 29 30.4% 20 13.6% 18 28
2020 3.85 4.43 13 73% 6 16% 13 1.17 19 0.32 32 12.6% 28 36 6.6% 17 24.0% 12 12.4% 16 20
2021 3.80 3.97 25 72% 10 21% 31 1.19 18 0.41 27 11.3% 14 52 8.5% 27 30.3% 30 15.6% 27 17
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.04 (20) Left Tackle: 4.37 (14) Mid/Guard: 3.73 (30) Right Tackle: 4.65 (5) Right End: 3.22 (29)

The Panthers entered the offseason with Taylor Moton and four question marks penciled in on the offensive line. You can’t
say they didn’t make every effort to bolster arguably the worst line in football last season, bringing in three new starters and
shuffling players around to fill the fourth slot. 🏈 Moton was the one lock to come back. Despite all the chaos around him,
Moton actually improved his blown block rate to 1.7%, eighth best among qualified tackles. 🏈 N.C. State tackle Ikem
Ekwonu should start at left tackle immediately, though he would also project well as a guard. If you’re hoping for elite pass
protection right from day one, you’ll be disappointed; he’s a bit inconsistent in his pass sets and could use a little polish. Once
that polish is applied, he is going to wreck people because he has a rare blend of speed and power. He’s basically a younger,
nastier version of Moton, and watching them bookend the same line should be a lot of fun eventually. 🏈 Ekwonu’s selection
 CAROLINA PANTHERS 39

almost guarantees Brady Christensen will slide inside to guard; scouts predicted as much before he was drafted last season, cit-
ing his short arms and average athleticism. His strength should fit just fine on the interior of the line. 🏈 Bradley Bozeman’s
best feature is his versatility; he’s an adequate starter at center or either guard position. That’s useful for a team trying to plug
in multiple new starters. 🏈 While Austin Corbett is an upgrade at right guard, his 38.6 snaps per blown block were worse
than any Panthers interior lineman other than Dennis Daley last season.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
DaQuan Jones* 31 DT 17 641 38 4.6% 65 24 4 3 36 64% 74 1.9 20 1.0 6 13 0
Derrick Brown 24 DT 16 632 45 5.8% 41 33 11 1 36 69% 54 1.8 9 3.0 7 12 4
Bravvion Roy 26 DT 17 341 32 3.9% -- 24 4 2 30 73% -- 2.8 -- 0.0 2 5 2
Matt Ioannidis 28 DT 16 607 38 4.8% 61 28 9 0 32 75% 26 2.0 23 2.5 8 22 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Haason Reddick* 28 OLB 16 854 67 8.6% 6 48 24 7 42 69% 63 3.5 80 11.0 5 25 0
Brian Burns 24 DE 17 840 54 6.6% 25 44 25 9 30 73% 42 2.5 40 9.0 9 30 3
Morgan Fox* 28 DE 17 562 34 4.1% 71 25 11 0 28 68% 67 2.1 27 1.5 5 18 0
Yetur Gross-Matos 24 DE 14 350 29 4.3% -- 25 14 1 22 91% -- 1.4 -- 3.5 0 9 1
Frankie Luvu 26 OLB 16 249 35 4.5% -- 29 13 2 28 86% -- 1.4 -- 1.5 3 7 1
Marquis Haynes 29 DE 17 223 21 2.6% -- 18 9 1 14 86% -- 2.6 -- 3.0 3 8 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Jermaine Carter* 27 MLB 17 853 85 10.3% 58 51 11 16 60 65% 16 3.5 22 0.0 3 8 16 38% 66 8.6 66 1 0
Shaq Thompson 28 OLB 14 798 109 16.1% 18 60 23 10 56 66% 13 2.9 9 2.0 5 8 40 58% 19 4.8 12 5 2
Damien Wilson 29 ILB 17 867 109 12.4% 40 55 17 12 66 56% 47 3.5 25 3.0 2 6 37 59% 15 6.5 39 5 1
Cory Littleton 29 OLB 17 661 99 11.0% 51 40 12 13 54 48% 69 4.3 63 0.5 1 2 31 39% 63 6.0 31 4 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 5.32 4.89 30 74% 29 17% 22 1.49 32 1.41 31 15.0% 9 53 8.8% 3 28.6% 22 15.5% 12
2020 4.92 4.72 26 70% 22 17% 19 1.34 26 1.10 29 12.3% 18 29 5.8% 21 24.9% 17 14.7% 11
2021 4.09 3.97 7 70% 21 21% 5 1.19 17 0.70 20 14.4% 13 39 8.2% 3 28.5% 5 17.4% 3
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.72 (32) Left Tackle: 4.66 (22) Mid/Guard: 3.72 (4) Right Tackle: 3.80 (11) Right End: 3.20 (7)

Losing Haason Reddick is going to hurt. Reddick came in on a one-year prove-it deal, proceeded to prove it, and pushed himself
right out of Carolina’s price range. The Panthers improved from 12th to second in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate last season but now
have to replace their top edge player. 🏈 We say edge player because Brian Burns is the Panthers best actual pass-rusher, one
of 10 players with at least 30 hurries in the last two seasons. He doesn’t offer much in run defense, but that’s not what they’re pay-
ing him for. 🏈 Derrick Brown hasn’t really justified being the seventh overall pick, but he does have some value. His 1.8 rush
yards allowed per play ranked ninth in the league among interior linemen. 🏈 In his last three years starting double-digit games,
Matt Ioannidis is averaging 24.5 hurries. The trouble is, he has only managed to hit that mark in odd-numbered years. At least he’s
consistent! 🏈 The best game of Yetur Gross-Matos’ 2021 season came out of position. He shifted inside to make up for Derrick
Brown’s absence against Buffalo and recorded 2.5 of his 3.5 sacks. Carolina wants him to be more of a pure edge rusher this year,
but he frankly might have the better frame for a 3-technique. 🏈 Things finally seemed to click for Shaq Thompson, who had the
strongest coverage season of his career and bounced back from a disappointing 2020 everywhere else. He has always had speed,
but 2021 saw him diagnosing things better and finding ways to get into position to make plays on a regular basis. 🏈 Damien
Wilson is penciled in as the starting middle linebacker, but his April assault arrest puts that into question. Even if he’s cleared,
Wilson’s more of a tackle accumulator than a difference-maker. 🏈 Frankie Luvu is in line for a much bigger role in 2022 after
getting All-Pro votes as a special teamer last season. His 20.0% pressure rate was in the top 15 among players with at least 50 pass
rushes. That won’t stay that high through a heavier workload, but he has shown plenty to see more than rotational work on defense.
🏈 Fourth-round pick Brandon Smith (Penn State) is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a shoddy guidance system. He’s
fluid and athletic and can fly over the field. He also often overshoots plays, runs himself out of position, misses tackles, and gener-
ally gets moved around. The traits are fantastic, so if he can get his fundamentals straight, he’s an intriguing prospect.
40 CAROLINA PANTHERS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Jeremy Chinn 24 SS 16 1017 111 14.3% 7 51 19 11 67 49% 15 6.1 24 32 9.5% 28 7.7 59% 24 5.9 19 5 1
Donte Jackson 27 CB 12 718 71 12.2% 3 29 10 11 20 35% 53 6.5 46 56 23.6% 16 11.9 52% 51 7.3 42 10 2
Sean Chandler 26 FS 15 539 43 5.9% -- 6 3 3 21 10% -- 9.4 -- 8 4.5% -- 15.9 50% -- 9.0 -- 1 0
Myles Hartsfield 25 FS 10 473 48 9.9% 47 28 8 4 17 65% 3 4.4 6 24 15.3% 5 7.3 67% 7 3.4 2 4 0
Keith Taylor 24 CB 17 450 40 4.9% -- 8 4 4 7 14% -- 14.3 -- 40 26.9% -- 11.7 43% -- 9.7 -- 3 0
Juston Burris 29 FS 10 420 24 5.0% -- 7 2 7 10 30% -- 4.9 -- 11 7.9% -- 11.9 55% -- 11.5 -- 1 1
A.J. Bouye* 31 CB 10 403 31 6.4% -- 15 10 3 6 33% -- 4.3 -- 25 18.7% -- 10.7 48% -- 8.8 -- 3 0
CJ Henderson 24 CB 12 390 41 7.1% -- 13 5 7 14 43% -- 5.1 -- 28 21.8% -- 12.9 36% -- 10.0 -- 2 0
Stephon Gilmore* 32 CB 8 305 18 4.6% -- 8 6 0 6 33% -- 10.7 -- 16 15.9% -- 10.4 69% -- 4.1 -- 2 2
Rashaan Melvin 33 CB 10 248 16 3.3% -- 7 2 4 9 78% -- 3.4 -- 18 21.9% -- 10.8 50% -- 7.9 -- 0 0
Kenny Robinson 23 FS 10 182 14 2.9% -- 6 4 2 7 29% -- 6.3 -- 1 1.7% -- 17.0 0% -- 19.0 -- 0 0
Xavier Woods 27 FS 17 1208 117 12.5% 18 33 15 9 54 24% 60 7.9 49 33 7.3% 50 15.5 52% 47 9.4 58 10 3

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 11 -10.7% 8 8.0% 23 -22.6% 4 -28.0% 4 7.7% 19 7.4% 22 -3.0% 17
2020 23 -10.1% 12 1.1% 20 13.3% 24 -4.2% 11 -0.6% 18 2.2% 16 16.3% 29
2021 18 16.4% 27 -0.1% 15 17.0% 27 9.2% 26 18.1% 26 -16.4% 9 -8.1% 14

Carolina had the sixth-youngest secondary in the league in 2021, and the growing pains were apparent. With Jaycee Horn getting
injured early on and CJ Henderson taking time to acclimate after being acquired midseason, the Panthers struggled defending the
boundaries. While they were 18th in overall pass DVOA, that dropped to 26th on plays with an intended receiver; it was more pass
rush than coverage that was bailing them out. 🏈 Horn was spectacular for the three weeks we got to see him. His success rate,
yards per target, and YAC allowed would have led all cornerbacks had he qualified. Obviously, you can’t just take three games and
prorate them out to a full season, but Horn’s shutdown coverage was a big part of Carolina’s 3-0 start; he was badly missed when he
went down. 🏈 Speaking of small sample sizes, Henderson’s 36% success rate would have been the worst among corners had he
qualified. The Panthers are optimistic that Henderson struggled mostly because of being put into a new defense midstream; a full
offseason could make him more comfortable in Carolina. 🏈 When healthy, Donte Jackson has been a very solid athletic corner.
He has been banged up, battling through a toe injury in 2020 and a core muscle injury in 2021, and that sapped his speed. He’s a
solid second corner in Carolina’s zone scheme if he can just stay off the trainer’s table. 🏈 Jeremy Chinn was used more as a
safety last season after being listed as a linebacker as a rookie, but he still played the majority of his snaps in the box. That versatil-
ity is very useful; if Frankie Luvu struggles in a larger role or Damien Wilson’s off-field issues force a linebacker shuffle, Chinn is
a viable emergency option, even if the Panthers would prefer to keep him at safety to avoid getting banged up. 🏈 Xavier Woods
has been added to be the free safety. While that’s his natural position, he has been more effective as a run-stopper than a coverage
guy throughout his career. It will be interesting to see how the Panthers use him and Chinn together.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -4.1% 31 1.9 13 3.0 10 -2.9 26 -17.3 32 -5.4 30 6.1 7
2020 0.8% 16 -3.9 22 5.0 7 4.2 8 2.6 12 -3.7 26 -9.2 27
2021 -1.6% 24 2.5 11 -5.5 27 1.1 10 -7.5 27 1.2 11 -3.3 20

Lac Edwards, Joseph Charlton, and Ryan Winslow all finished in the bottom 15 in gross punting value in 2021. That’s the
cause of most of Carolina’s low punting score; they allowed the third-least value on punt returns thanks to a combination of
good hang time and solid coverage from the other 10 guys on the punt unit. 🏈 Enter Johnny Hekker, who was released by
Los Angeles after a down season in 2021. The Rams had positive punting value in eight of Hekker’s 10 seasons. Considering
his fake-punt prowess, Hekker might have the strongest arm on the Panthers as well. 🏈 Zane Gonzalez, picked up off the
Detroit practice squad before Week 2, had 6.8 points of field goal value above expectation; Carolina’s other kickers stumbled
to -2.3 points. Gonzalez signed a two-year extension before hitting free agency and will be back in 2022. 🏈 Even at age 34,
Andre Roberts should be an upgrade over Ameer Abdullah in the return game. He’s generally better as a kick returner than punt
returner, though last season had larger-than-usual splits. Roberts was third in the league with 11.4 points of kick return value
but last with -5.9 points of punt return value.
 Chicago Bears
2021 record: 6-11 Total DVOA: -10.6% (24) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.7 wins On the Clock (0-5): 21%
Pythagorean Wins: 5.8 (25) Offense: -13.6% (26) Postseason Odds: 30.2% Mediocrity (6-8): 42%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.9 (7) Defense: -0.9% (13) Super Bowl Odds: 2.2% Playoff Contender (9-11): 29%
Average Opponent: 1.4% (9) Special Teams: 2.1% (7) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.0% (17) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 8%

2021: Pace and Nagy draft a first-round quarterback in order to save their jobs—to no avail.

2022: It’s Year 2 for Justin Fields. Surely the Bears have set him up for some success now … right?

A n NFL tale as old as time: a dying regime tries to save its

jobs by trading up for a rookie quarterback, the team still
stinks during the quarterback’s rookie year, and a new power
issues that ended his final season at Oklahoma State and bled
into his rookie year, and he looked unprepared in limited ac-
tion. Jenkins should be better with a fuller and healthier off-
structure is ushered in to handle a quarterback they have no season under his belt, but it’s not as though a Day 2 player
ties to. This year’s telling of the story features Justin Fields with back issues who is flipping to the other side of the offen-
and the Chicago Bears. sive line is a comfortable bet.
Chicago’s story did not unfold any differently from any- The rest of the unit features a lot of familiar faces, minus the
one else’s before them. The Bears spent resources acquiring best one from last season. Right guard James Daniels sprinted
Fields to lead a bad offense; the offense continued to be bad out the door in free agency, finding himself a nearby home in
because they could not and did not restock it well; and Fields, Pittsburgh. All the Bears did to replace him was move their
a 21-year-old rookie, was not consistent enough to patch bad center—Sam Mustipher—a few feet to the right and call
things up and propel the offense to new heights. Bad prep, bad him a new starter, as if the position change does anything to
talent, bad results. It happens every year, both with newborn fix Mustipher’s shortcomings. Mustipher did struggle with
and dying regimes alike. Head coach Matt Nagy and general some of the mental parts of center play, so perhaps moving
manager Ryan Pace happened to fall in the latter category, and him to the less-intense guard position could boost his perfor-
ultimately had to hit the road following the 2021 season. mance, but 17 games worth of blocking last year suggests that
This offseason, the new power duo of general manager will not be enough to turn this ship around.
Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus had a chance to Replacing Mustipher will be Lucas Patrick, a free agent
right the last regime’s wrongs on offense. Fields may not have from Green Bay who accounts for one of the very few up-
been their draft selection, but he is locked in as the starting grades made on this roster. Patrick played a fair amount of
quarterback right now and clearly has physical tools worth in- guard in Green Bay before stepping in at center last year. He
vesting in. It only makes sense to provide Fields with the right performed fairly well for the Packers, but he ranks as a com-
circumstances in order to evaluate him properly. The sooner petent player rather than a difference-maker. The combination
Fields is decided to be the guy or not, the better things are for of Patrick-Mustipher is probably nothing more than a push
everyone involved. compared to Mustipher-Daniels, so it’s hard to call the Patrick
Poles and Eberflus said to heck with that. The Bears’ new move a win in that sense.
power structure did almost nothing to fix what was a bottom- At least the Bears splurged with four Day 3 picks on offen-
five offense last season. Both up front and at the skill posi- sive line projects. It’s an extreme approach, but Poles is taking
tions, Chicago hemorrhaged starters this offseason. Granted, over a bad roster expected to be bad anyway. This is the per-
a handful of those starters were not any good and needed to fect time to do something extreme and see how it works out.
take a hike anyway, but it doesn’t do any good to send off Though all four picks are just dice rolls, one has to imagine
mediocre players only to replace them with someone else’s that at least one of those dice rolls should hit and develop into
mediocre players. a playable starter down the line. That fixes nothing this year,
If anything, the Bears offense may have just gotten worse but at the very least, it’s nice to find one thought the Bears
across the board. There’s no blaming them for not having a had this offseason and think, “Hey, that’s actually pretty neat.”
first-round selection due to the Fields trade—you trade for Those have been hard to come by.
a quarterback prospect every time—but Chicago spent their None of the Bears’ ideas at wide receiver have been very
first two picks on defense while doing squat with their cap neat, however. Three of Chicago’s top four wide receivers last
space to bolster the offense with legitimate pieces. season will be gone. That isn’t necessarily bad. Allen Rob-
The offensive line could go from bad to worse. A lot of their inson is the obvious loss, but last season he looked slower,
success hinges on 2021 second-round pick Teven Jenkins, a less explosive, and less involved than ever before. Talented
college right tackle whom the Bears wanted to move to the as he may be, Robinson and the team probably needed to part
blind side. Jenkins played sparingly last season due to back ways. The other two losses—Marquise Goodwin and Damiere
41
42 CHICAGO BEARS

2021 CHI DVOA by Week

2022 Bears Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 SF 7 at NE (Mon.) 13 GB
2 at GB 8 at DAL 14 BYE 40%
3 HOU 9 MIA 15 PHI 20%
4 at NYG 10 DET 16 BUF (Sat.)
0%
5 at MIN 11 at ATL 17 at DET
6 WAS (Thu.) 12 at NYJ 18 MIN -20%

-40%

-60%

Byrd—are fringe NFL contributors, but losing production is -80%

losing production. Those guys still have to be replaced. -100%

Spoiler: Chicago did not replace those guys effectively.

The Bears’ top two signings at wide receiver this offseason
were Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown. Pringle was
effectively speed insurance in Kansas City for the past four serve as an offensive assistant in various capacities with the
years, finally reaching a career-high 42 receptions last sea- Packers between 2014 and 2021 (save for that 2018 season).
son as more of an underneath YAC threat, partially a response It’s hard to pin down exactly what Getsy might bring to Chi-
to the league’s smattering of two-high coverages versus the cago. The safest bet is to look at what Green Bay did and try to
Chiefs. St. Brown has seen the opposite career arc, topping marry that with Chicago’s roster, but starting from the quarter-
out at 21 receptions as a rookie in 2018 before notching just back position, that doesn’t make much sense. Fields isn’t Aaron
seven and nine receptions in the past two years. Pringle can Rodgers, from the perspective of style and not just quality.
be a useful No. 3 receiver, which may still be an upgrade over For example, Rodgers excels at the quick game. He also
any of Chicago’s No. 3 receivers from last year, but that’s it, loves having run plays packaged with a quick passing op-
and it takes an even more generous evaluation of St. Brown tion on the backside, like a bubble screen or a quick slant,
to see him playing like a starting-caliber receiver or even a so that Rodgers always has an “out” for a bad run call. Both
viable rotational guy. of those things require not only quick wit, but a quick trigger
The expectation was that the Bears would address the posi- and throwing motion, the latter of which Fields most certainly
tion in this year’s draft, and technically they did, with Tennes- didn’t show last year. Fields has a longer release and slower
see’s Velus Jones Jr. Jones is a 25-year-old who only started footwork right now, which is not as conducive to maximizing
one college season and was billed as more of a special teams those quick hitters.
threat than a starting wide receiver. It’s true that Jones is elec- Moreover, Rodgers prefers to make many of his aggressive
tric with the ball in his hands, but his route tree was limited throws to the boundary, particularly 1-on-1 back-shoulder
in college, and he seldom looked like someone who had the throws. That’s not what Fields wants to do. Fields is much
craftiness to separate in the NFL. Before the draft, Jones drew more ready to push the envelope between the numbers and
comparisons to players such as Cordarrelle Patterson, if that down the seam/post area. Those two differences alone should
helps make clear where he is at as a wideout right now. From mean less quick game and perimeter action from Getsy’s of-
an optimist’s point of view, Jones could become something fense than he was used to with the Packers.
like Brandon Aiyuk—a slant-and-glance route merchant with
impressive YAC ability—but even that will require time and a Table 1. Comparing 2021
fair amount of projection. Jones probably will not be ready to
produce in a major way as a rookie, though he might be forced Bears and Packers Offenses
to figure it out.
So the Bears’ new receiving corps is Darnell Mooney— 2021 Packers 2021 Bears
an effective speedster WR3 who can moonlight as a No. 2 Run-Pass Options 20% (4th) 8% (18th)
option—and some amalgamation of a mid-level role player Offensive Motion 53% (6th) 37% (24th)
(Pringle), a career backup (St. Brown), and an AARP-ready Passes Behind LoS 25% (t-3rd) 17% (t-27th)
rookie kick returner (Jones). Tight end Cole Kmet and run- Throws to Middle of Field 19% (t-23rd) 25% (6th)
ning back David Montgomery clear the bar as pass-catchers Shotgun/Pistol 63% (19th) 66% (14th)
in their respective roles, which is nice, but Chicago’s group Play-Action 28% (11th) 24% (26th)
of wideouts is primed to be the worst the league has to offer.
The Bears will also have a rookie playcaller leading the The good news is that Fields is a fit for the under-center, play-
way, former Packers quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy. Getsy action-driven structure that Getsy is likely bringing over (Table
has only called plays at two previous stops: 2011-2012 at In- 1). The Packers went under center on 37% of snaps last sea-
diana (PA) at the Division II level and 2018 with Mississippi son. With Rodgers behind center, that did not lead to as many
State. He has never called plays in the NFL, though he did handoffs and play-action lasers over the middle of the field as
 CHICAGO BEARS 43

it would for most offenses with those guidelines, but Fields is dre Houston-Carson to earn playing time.
likely a return to normalcy in that sense. Fields could use the The Bears were not just bad in the secondary; they also
help of a heavy run game considering he is a young player, and did not want their nickel personnel on the field. It is a nickel
littering the offense with shot plays to the intermediate and deep league, so they still played out of that personnel group 55% of
portions of the field will tap into where Fields shines most as a the time, but that registered just 23rd in the league. They pre-
passer thanks to his anticipation and powerful arm, reminiscent ferred to more dramatically match personnel, opting for base
of a supercharged Ryan Tannehill in that way. personnel whenever possible on early downs and leaning into
Unfortunately, that style of approach is best when ahead six-defensive back sets in clear passing situations.
or close in games, in large part because that approach relies The short explanation is that Chicago’s “best 11” was their
more on running the ball, and running the ball is less threaten- base 3-4 personnel and their best answer to defending against
ing when playing from behind. The Bears will probably be clear pass situations was throwing even more defensive backs
forced out of their “base” offensive structure and into many on the field and praying. In base, Mack and Robert Quinn
unfavorable passing situations, in which case the combination could man the edges, some combination of three quality in-
of a poor offensive line, limited pass-catchers, and an inex- terior linemen could plug up the middle, and the secondary
perienced quarterback will struggle. The Lions, for example, could in turn sit in two-high shells that gave them relatively
experienced a similar issue last year. safe coverage over the top. It was the best way for Chicago
How Getsy takes advantage of Fields’ wheels could help to try to have bodies in the run game while still managing to
change the offense’s fate a bit. Fields may not be able to add get somewhat dependable coverage out of an incomplete, and
extra stress through quick-hitting screens and RPOs like Rod- often injury-stricken, secondary.
gers, but he can add stress by forcing the defense to account On the flip side, when Chicago felt they had clear passing
for another ballcarrier. Fields has the bulk and balance to spare situations, they were more likely than many other teams to
a few hits per game between the tackles while also showcas- just throw six defensive backs on the field and pray that all
ing the acceleration and long speed to rip off explosive plays that speed would work out in their favor. They played dime
at will. Considering the receiving corps will not be threatening on 16% of snaps, slightly more than league-average and 15%
enough on its own whenever the team gets into lighter shot- more than Eberflus’ Colts last year. The dime approach never
gun formations, Fields’ legs will have to be one of the tools to really worked out for Chicago last year—they allowed 7.7
help tip the scales back in the Bears’ favor. yards per play with 41.1% DVOA in dime, worse than every
That won’t be enough to salvage the offense this year, other defense except the Jets—but the logic in deploying it
though. Nothing the Bears can do at this stage is going to sal- was easy to follow considering they did not seem to trust their
vage the offense. The team could still add pieces via late free- nickel defense to get the job done.
agency signings or trades, but it’s hard to imagine any move That will not be the case in 2022. The Bears made it a point
at this point that moves the needle in a major way. Getsy may of emphasis to fix the secondary, adding two presumptive
bring some fresh and fitting ideas to the team, but he will not starters through the draft in Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker
have enough ingredients to work with. Fields may still be The and Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon. Brisker is a split-
Guy and show impressive flashes, but he isn’t being set up for field and box safety who complements Jackson’s free-ranging
success by any stretch of the imagination. 2022 is a poorly skill set well. He should step in immediately and offer more
crafted rebuild year for the Bears offense. That is what they reliable run defense and tackling than Gipson did a year ago,
paid for and that is what they will get. as well as the fresh legs to cover more ground against the pass.
For all the doom and gloom about the offense, not all is Likewise, Gordon can fill in opposite Johnson on the outside
cloudy and gray in Chicago this season. Last year’s No. 13 de- right away, providing good strength and ball skills on the side-
fense by DVOA is primed to take a small step forward, which line. The Bears also added former Baltimore cornerback Ta-
is the kind of thing you want to hear when a team hires a de- von Young, who has played well in spurts and should, at the
fensive head coach. Considering the team traded away Khalil very least, provide competition at the nickel spot, if not an
Mack, as well as allowing a number of other key front-seven upgrade over Duke Shelley.
members to walk, it may be hard to believe that the Bears Eberflus wants to be in nickel anyway. Sean Desai was will-
defense is set to improve. But their swap of high-end players ing to bend with the team’s personnel last season, but Eberflus’
in favor of smoothing out talent across the unit more evenly Colts ranked third in nickel usage at 78% last season. Eberflus
could work out in their favor. took a pretty cut and dry approach to personnel in Indy, which
All of the Bears’ improvements this offseason were made is neither good nor bad necessarily, just different from what
on the back end. Despite a couple of nice pieces such as cor- Chicago tried doing in 2021. Between Eberflus’ recent history
nerback Jaylon Johnson and safety Eddie Jackson already and all the acquisitions to bolster the secondary’s starting five,
in place, the Bears’ secondary was a wholly incomplete unit one has to imagine the Bears are going to become much more
last year. The second outside cornerback spot was a turnstile of a standard nickel defense moving forward.
of sadness featuring Artie Burns, Kindle Vildor, and Xavier That fits what Eberflus wants to do up front as well. Eber-
Crawford. Safety was not a whole lot better as Tashaun Gip- flus deploys a 4-3 front, which marries better with getting to
son had taken a step back and on-and-off injuries to both start- and staying in nickel. Most NFL nickel fronts, regardless of
ers left room for lesser players such as Deon Bush and DeAn- a team’s base, turn into a four-down structure anyway. For
44 CHICAGO BEARS

that reason, it’s a little bit easier for base four-down teams to provide play that was a step above Chicago’s backups last
be comfortable in nickel fronts because it better mimics what year, though still a step behind whatever Chicago’s “ideal”
they want to be doing to begin with. There is more carryover lineup would have looked like.
with the fronts and spacing. On aggregate, the Bears defense projects to come out ahead
The problem is that Eberflus will be left with barer cup- of last year’s unit. They will need a cleaner bill of health, al-
boards than Desai in the pass-rusher department. The Bears though that logic can be applied to the other 31 teams just the
bled a lot of talent up front this offseason at the cost of fixing same. The pair of rookies in the secondary also must live up to
the secondary. The obvious loss is Mack, dealt to the Los An- their draft billing, but both were second-rounders who many
geles Chargers for a 2022 second-rounder (the Gordon pick) expected to be late first-rounders. Brisker and Gordon are sol-
and a 2023 sixth-round pick. Mack missed just over half of id bets to be legit starters right away and shore up Chicago’s
last season, so it’s not as though his full impact was felt. Chi- biggest weaknesses from a year ago. Lastly, the Bears finished
cago’s defensive DVOA without him (-0.5%) wasn’t much 28th in turnovers per drive last year. Turnover rate tends to
worse than it was in the seven games he played (-1.4%). But strongly regress towards the mean, providing a potential boost
Mack is still among the league’s elite edge rushers and you for the Bears defense this season.
would rather have him on the field instead of some blend of An above-average defense is not dragging this team out
free-agent signee Al-Quadin Muhammad (ex-Colts), fifth- from the depths of hell, though. The offense is set to be a di-
round rookie Dominique Robinson (Miami of Ohio), and saster, and offense tends to weigh more heavily in the grand
backup Trevis Gipson (who did surprise with seven sacks, scheme of things. Chicago’s defense in 2022 would have to be
starting in Mack’s place for the second half of 2021). elite or close to it in order to make this team competitive, but
Chicago’s interior, albeit an up-and-down unit, was also it’s just hard to see them cracking into that tier when they will
gutted. Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Eddie Goldman were be installing a new scheme and still lack real-deal star power
all allowed to walk this offseason. Case by case, each decision beyond linebacker Roquan Smith and Quinn.
makes enough sense. Hicks is well into his thirties and was The Bears will not win enough games to stay interesting for
injured for parts of last season, Goldman lost a little bit of a very long. It’s a depressing reality to accept, but this season
step, and Nichols is solid but not a game-changer. Allowing isn’t about anything other than evaluating who is and isn’t
all three to leave while only replacing them with Justin Jones, a cornerstone moving forward, particularly on offense. The
however, has some disaster potential. hope should be that Fields does not break, Jenkins emerges as
The silver lining up front is that a cleaner bill of health a starting-caliber tackle, and at least one of the rookie defen-
could bolster the unit despite losing talent. Allowing Hicks, sive backs looks like an immediate plus starter. If everything
Goldman, Nichols, and Mack to leave is an exodus of talent else goes roughly to expectation, that’s a successful season
on paper, but many of them missed significant time last sea- considering their timeline. Just don’t go searching for success
son, leaving the Bears to get by with backups and rotational in the traditional sense from Chicago this year.
players anyway. The likes of Muhammad and Jones may not
be world-beaters, but if they can remain healthy, they should Derrik Klassen

2021 Bears by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at LAR L 0% 14 34 322 386 -2 -34% 9% 44% 2% Total DVOA -13.6% 26 -0.9% 13
2 CIN W 92% 20 17 206 248 3 17% -47% -61% 3% Unadjusted VOA -12.6% 26 1.0% 14
3 at CLE L 0% 6 26 47 418 0 -99% -81% 6% -11% Weighted Trend -12.3% 24 -1.9% 16
4 DET W 87% 24 14 373 351 1 8% 16% 9% 1% Variance 7.0% 14 10.5% 31
5 at LV W 96% 20 9 252 259 1 21% -9% -17% 12% Average Opponent 1.1% 27 2.5% 5
6 GB L 8% 14 24 277 323 -1 -3% 12% 21% 6%
7 at TB L 0% 3 38 311 408 -4 -61% -54% -4% -11% Passing -5.3% 26 2.3% 12
8 SF L 0% 22 33 324 467 -1 -54% -4% 48% -2% Rushing -13.5% 23 -4.3% 24
9 at PIT L 83% 27 29 414 280 -1 14% 19% 8% 4%
First Down -7.6% 24 14.9% 32
10 BYE
Second Down -8.9% 22 -18.7% 3
11 BAL L 72% 13 16 353 299 0 -13% -18% -17% -11%
Third Down -31.7% 31 -3.1% 16
12 at DET W 82% 16 14 378 239 0 -8% -6% 2% 0%
13 ARI L 0% 22 33 329 257 -4 -36% -30% 7% 1% First Half -15.7% 29 -7.8% 11
14 at GB L 31% 30 45 347 439 -3 -7% -7% 35% 35% Second Half -11.2% 25 6.1% 24
15 MIN L 91% 9 17 370 193 -2 13% -14% -33% -6%
16 at SEA W 17% 25 24 317 331 0 -24% -1% 21% -2% Red Zone -27.7% 31 -1.4% 16
17 NYG W 100% 29 3 249 155 2 63% -9% -68% 5% Late and Close -21.9% 31 33.4% 31
18 at MIN L 8% 17 31 356 331 -2 -22% -24% 9% 11%
 CHICAGO BEARS 45

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 5-11 6.2 5.7 264 320 0 -17.0% 25 -15.0% 28 -0.4% 14 -2.4% 23 56.4 25 68.1 30 26.6 20 26.1 17 26.0 10
2018 12-4 11.6 10.6 421 283 +14 19.1% 5 -3.1% 20 -25.4% 1 -3.2% 26 20.3 6 14.2 4 26.1 26 26.0 22 26.1 11
2019 8-8 7.4 7.6 280 298 0 -3.1% 18 -9.9% 25 -5.8% 10 0.9% 13 36.9 15 28.5 13 26.0 29 26.9 6 26.4 7
2020 8-8 8.1 7.9 372 370 -4 -0.6% 15 -10.6% 25 -7.5% 8 2.6% 8 40.2 18 46.9 20 26.6 20 27.5 2 27.2 3
2021 6-11 5.8 5.0 311 407 -13 -10.6% 24 -13.6% 26 -0.9% 13 2.1% 7 30.5 7 49.1 24 26.8 13 27.0 6 26.8 6

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

CHI Offense CHI Offense vs. Opponents CHI Defense CHI Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 63% 4.9 -17.4% 31% Base 22% 5.0 1.4% 56% Base 29% 4.7 -8.6% 11 57% 6.4 10.2%
12 22% 5.8 5.1% 48% Nickel 65% 5.0 -14.7% 37% Nickel 55% 5.4 -6.1% 12 17% 4.5 -13.3%
13 6% 5.2 16.0% 45% Dime+ 11% 5.7 14.0% 4% Dime+ 16% 7.7 41.1% 21 10% 4.3 -20.8%
612 2% 1.2 -50.6% 95% Goal Line 1% -1.2 -49.5% 70% Goal Line 0% 1.0 93.0% 22 4% 6.3 28.9%
WC 2% 7.3 29.8% 89% Big 1% 6.1 15.2% 80% 13 3% 5.0 -4.2%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 43% 4 Form: Single Back 85% 11 Rush 3 4.2% 18 4 DB 29% 8 Play Action 24% 26
Runs, first down 50% 12 Form: Empty Back 8% 17 Rush 4 72.1% 10 5 DB 55% 23 Offensive Motion 37% 24
Runs, second-long 30% 15 Form: Multi Back 7% 19 Rush 5 19.5% 14 6+ DB 16% 15 Avg Box (Off) 6.35 25
Runs, power sit. 62% 11 Pers: 3+ WR 67% 12 Rush 6+ 4.2% 17 Man Coverage 30% 13 Avg Box (Def) 6.55 13
Runs, behind 2H 25% 25 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 33% 11 Edge Rusher Sacks 66.3% 8 CB by Sides 76% 16 Offensive Pace 31.88 22
Pass, ahead 2H 49% 13 Pers: 6+ OL 4% 12 Interior DL Sacks 23.5% 20 S/CB Cover Ratio 35% 5 Defensive Pace 31.94 27
Run-Pass Options 8% 18 Shotgun/Pistol 66% 14 Second Level Sacks 10.2% 25 DB Blitz 6% 26 Go for it on 4th 1.35 8

Bears quarterbacks were blitzed 29.7% of the time in 2021, third behind New England and Baltimore. Among quarterbacks
with at least 200 pass plays, Andy Dalton faced the highest blitz rate and Justin Fields was fifth. Fields only dropped from 6.0
to 5.5 yards per pass against five pass-rushers, and his DVOA was similar. 🏈 The Bears, who had ranked No. 1 in “CB by
Sides” for three straight years, moved their cornerbacks around much more in 2021. 🏈 Chicago had the worst defensive
DVOA in the league (41.1%) with dime personnel (min. 100 plays). 🏈 Chicago opponents only dropped 11 passes in 2021,
the lowest total for any NFL defense. 🏈 The Bears had a very strange split in pass defense, ranking 29th on first downs but
then second on second downs, followed by 19th on third downs. 🏈 Chicago ranked second in defensive DVOA at home but
24th on the road. (Note that home/road splits rarely carry over from year to year.)
46 CHICAGO BEARS

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Fields -324 -28.4% 304 1606 5.3 4.3 59.3% 7 10 D.Mooney 54 -7.9% 140 81 1055 13.0 4.7 4 58%
A.Dalton* -165 -21.2% 253 1370 5.4 5.0 63.4% 8 9 A.Robinson* 19 -9.2% 66 38 410 10.8 2.4 1 58%
N.Foles* 46 9.1% 39 229 5.9 6.9 68.6% 1 0 M.Goodwin* 32 -2.7% 40 20 313 15.7 4.2 1 50%
T.Siemian 86 -4.1% 197 1090 5.5 4.7 57.4% 11 3 D.Byrd* 43 1.6% 38 26 329 12.7 4.5 1 68%
J.Grant* 44 23.4% 15 9 139 15.4 12.3 2 60%
B.Pringle 202 29.6% 60 42 568 13.5 4.5 5 70%
T.Sharpe -6 -14.8% 37 25 229 9.2 2.7 0 68%
E.St.Brown -14 -22.6% 17 9 98 10.9 6.4 0 53%
Rushing D.Pettis -22 -30.8% 16 10 87 8.7 3.8 1 63%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc C.Kmet -11 -9.3% 93 60 610 10.2 4.1 0 65%
D.Montgomery -16 -10.2% 225 849 3.8 7 1 48% J.Graham* 32 14.3% 23 14 167 11.9 3.9 3 61%
K.Herbert 78 10.1% 103 433 4.2 2 0 50% J.James* 20 38.1% 8 7 62 8.9 2.6 1 88%
J.Fields -8 -14.6% 66 410 6.2 2 5 - R.Griffin -27 -16.9% 42 27 261 9.7 5.5 2 64%
D.Williams* 30 8.7% 40 164 4.1 2 0 50% J.O'Shaughnessy -27 -18.7% 34 24 244 10.2 4.8 0 71%
A.Dalton* 4 -6.1% 13 82 6.3 0 0 - D.Montgomery 54 6.3% 51 42 301 7.2 6.5 0 82%
D.Mooney 18 13.5% 6 32 5.3 1 0 - D.Williams* -26 -35.1% 23 16 103 6.4 6.8 1 70%
J.Grant* 13 3.3% 5 33 6.6 0 0 - K.Herbert 12 -0.4% 16 14 96 6.9 7.2 0 88%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Cody Whitehair LG 30 17/17 1122 6 4.5 14 11 Germain Ifedi* RT 28 9/7 413 5 2.0 7 2
Sam Mustipher C 26 17/17 1122 4 1.5 10 19 Teven Jenkins LT 24 6/2 161 7 2.0 6 2
James Daniels* RG 25 17/17 1122 8 3.5 18 11 Lucas Patrick C/G 29 17/13 911 5 1.0 6 6
Jason Peters* LT 40 15/15 853 3 9.5 15 8 Julién Davenport RT 27 9/4 280 1 3.5 14 2
Larry Borom RT 23 10/8 633 4 4.0 18 6

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.56 3.86 29 50% 31 18% 16 0.89 31 0.39 30 10.7% 19 45 7.3% 21 29.5% 14 12.8% 13 26
2020 4.39 4.16 25 61% 25 19% 29 1.16 20 0.84 10 11.6% 22 36 6.2% 15 26.3% 20 10.3% 7 29
2021 3.93 4.06 23 62% 24 21% 30 1.11 26 0.50 22 14.7% 32 58 9.5% 32 28.7% 24 14.7% 21 31
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.98 (7) Left Tackle: 4.14 (21) Mid/Guard: 3.94 (24) Right Tackle: 4.18 (16) Right End: 3.39 (28)

Chicago’s offensive line woes last season were not a health issue. Three players (James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, and Sam
Mustipher) played 100% of snaps, and the team finished with the ninth-fewest adjusted games lost via offensive line injuries.
🏈 The Bears were one of just three teams last season to rank outside the top 20 in adjusted line yards, power success, stuffed
rate, second-level yards, and open-field yards, joining the Dolphins and Saints. They weren’t quite the worst run blocking unit
overall, but they weren’t good at anything. 🏈 Chicago’s blown block rate on runs gradually got worse in each of the last
three years, ending up dead last in 2021. In addition to talent issues, that speaks a bit to how poorly Matt Nagy designed and
called the offense towards the end. Oddly, the Bears finished with exactly a 14.7% blown block rate both in run blocking and
pass protection. 🏈 Departing left tackle Jason Peters was one of just three players credited with 9.5 or more sacks allowed
last season, joining two rookies, Miami’s Liam Eichenberg and Atlanta’s Jaylen Mayfield. 🏈 New center Lucas Patrick
ranked 11th among centers and 20th among all interior offensive linemen in blown block rate last season. That is leaps and
bounds better than Mustipher fared at center for the Bears last year, finishing 33rd among centers and 94th among all interior
linemen. For what it’s worth, Patrick also finished ninth among right guards in blown block rate back in 2020, which speaks to
his versatility. 🏈 Chicago drafted too many offensive linemen to cover them all, but fifth-rounder Braxton Jones (Southern
Utah) deserves a shout-out. Jones brings nearly a 7-foot wingspan, which he uses effectively to latch onto defensive linemen
and move them around in the run game. He will need some time to speed up his feet and get more comfortable moving around
in pass protection, but the combination of length, power, and awareness is a good baseline for a developmental tackle.
 CHICAGO BEARS 47

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Bilal Nichols* 26 DE 17 678 52 6.3% 29 38 10 1 43 70% 53 2.8 62 3.0 5 16 0
Angelo Blackson 30 DE 17 583 45 5.4% 50 35 9 5 37 76% 23 2.9 71 2.5 6 14 1
Eddie Goldman* 28 DT 14 337 22 3.2% -- 15 7 4 21 67% -- 2.1 -- 0.5 0 2 0
Akiem Hicks* 33 DE 9 304 25 5.7% 42 19 6 3 19 74% 34 5.4 100 3.5 5 7 0
Khyiris Tonga 26 DT 15 216 24 3.3% -- 20 3 2 23 83% -- 2.5 -- 0.0 0 0 0
Mario Edwards 28 DE 12 212 9 1.5% -- 9 3 1 5 100% -- 1.6 -- 2.0 2 4 1
Margus Hunt* 35 DE 10 150 14 2.9% -- 10 6 1 12 83% -- 0.3 -- 0.0 0 4 0
Justin Jones 26 DE 11 487 38 6.6% 23 27 9 4 33 67% 58 2.9 70 3.0 2 8 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Robert Quinn 32 OLB 16 755 49 6.3% 27 36 29 5 23 57% 87 2.0 21 18.5 4 19 0
Trevis Gipson 25 OLB 16 489 38 4.9% 56 27 13 7 24 63% 78 2.6 49 7.0 1 15 2
Khalil Mack* 31 OLB 7 315 19 5.6% 45 14 8 1 10 70% 54 5.0 98 6.0 1 14 0
Al-Quadin Muhammad 27 DE 17 801 48 5.6% 41 34 11 8 34 74% 40 2.5 42 6.0 6 22 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Roquan Smith 25 ILB 17 1009 166 20.0% 2 93 28 10 104 59% 37 3.5 27 3.0 1 5 33 64% 10 5.1 15 3 1
Alec Ogletree* 31 ILB 16 697 90 11.5% 48 53 15 13 64 61% 29 3.7 36 0.0 3 3 19 53% 31 6.0 32 4 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.89 4.26 17 66% 19 14% 29 0.93 2 0.54 6 10.7% 26 32 6.6% 22 29.6% 20 14.4% 20
2020 4.15 4.17 11 60% 6 18% 15 1.21 17 0.63 11 13.2% 15 35 6.6% 15 22.8% 27 15.0% 9
2021 4.51 4.41 20 59% 4 17% 18 1.29 26 0.77 23 14.3% 14 49 9.6% 1 26.1% 13 14.4% 19
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.78 (11) Left Tackle: 5.04 (27) Mid/Guard: 4.19 (15) Right Tackle: 4.21 (15) Right End: 6.82 (32)

Pittsburgh may have led the NFL in sacks again, but Chicago led the league in adjusted sack rate as the Bears faced fewer
passes with a harder schedule. 🏈 With Eddie Goldman and Akiem Hicks gone, Khyiris Tonga could step into a bigger role.
A seventh-round rookie last year, Tonga flashed as a stout run-fending nose, earning an 83% stop rate. He did not earn enough
snaps to qualify, but that stop rate would have ranked top-10 last season. 🏈 For incoming defensive lineman Justin Jones, it
is more instructive to look at his 2020 stats in Gus Bradley’s scheme rather than his 2021 numbers with Brandon Staley. Back
in 2020, Jones recorded an 81% stop rate as a penetrating 3-technique, ranking 24th in the league. That explosiveness doesn’t
show up the same as a pass-rusher, but Jones can make a mess in the run game. 🏈 Defensive end Al-Quadin Muhammad has
recorded exactly 22 hurries in each of the past two seasons, as well as 21 pressures in 2019. He may not convert those hurries
into sacks often enough, but the consistency in hurries is valuable, especially since he will be the “sidekick” to Robert Quinn
anyway. 🏈 On the flip side, Quinn was the only player in the league with at least 10 sacks but fewer than 20 pressures.
That makes Quinn a prime regression candidate as far as sacks go, though he’s still great enough to not tank completely. 🏈
Roquan Smith was one of four linebackers to earn at least 25 defeats and rank top-10 in coverage success rate for the position
last season. Micah Parsons, Matt Milano, and, oddly, Kyzir White were the other three. Smith also led the NFL with 93 stops:
tackles, assists, or passes defensed that stopped a play short of success. 🏈 The Bears are taking a developmental swing with
fifth-round rookie Dominique Robinson. A former wide receiver/tight end, Robinson converted to pass-rusher in 2020, giving
him a season and a half at the position in college. Robinson has the frame, length, explosiveness, and contact balance to grow
into a quality player; he is just wholly unskilled at the finer parts of the position right now, which is to be expected. That said,
a pin-your-ears-back 4-3 style of defense is great for a developing pass-rusher to get reps.
48 CHICAGO BEARS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Jaylon Johnson 23 CB 15 933 55 7.5% 57 26 10 7 18 50% 22 4.9 26 57 18.6% 54 14.1 56% 31 8.2 59 9 1
Kindle Vildor 25 CB 17 821 49 5.9% 77 15 4 5 15 40% 46 5.9 36 40 14.8% 73 12.6 45% 75 9.9 79 4 0
Eddie Jackson 29 SS 14 787 78 11.4% 27 17 12 14 43 19% 70 9.0 61 26 10.0% 27 13.6 50% 51 9.8 65 2 0
Tashaun Gipson* 32 FS 12 660 50 8.5% 60 14 7 8 21 24% 61 10.0 68 17 7.8% 45 4.4 59% 26 5.9 20 3 2
DeAndre Houston-Carson 29 FS 13 419 51 8.0% -- 17 7 5 25 32% -- 7.9 -- 16 11.6% -- 6.9 56% -- 6.6 -- 4 1
Duke Shelley 26 CB 10 409 38 7.8% -- 17 7 3 8 75% -- 4.5 -- 31 23.0% -- 7.6 45% -- 7.0 -- 3 0
Deon Bush* 29 FS 14 377 36 5.3% -- 15 5 5 21 29% -- 9.2 -- 17 13.7% -- 12.6 65% -- 6.1 -- 5 2
Artie Burns* 27 CB 11 254 28 5.2% -- 15 5 1 11 55% -- 4.7 -- 20 23.9% -- 13.6 60% -- 6.9 -- 6 0
Tavon Young 28 CB 17 550 37 4.5% -- 18 8 4 3 33% -- 9.0 -- 42 17.7% -- 8.0 60% -- 5.7 -- 3 1
Dane Cruikshank 27 SS 14 414 39 5.7% -- 11 7 4 13 15% -- 7.0 -- 16 9.6% -- 8.6 63% -- 6.9 -- 1 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 8 -17.3% 5 2.1% 17 -29.4% 3 2.1% 21 -27.1% 2 2.9% 16 -9.1% 12
2020 13 -24.1% 2 -10.1% 10 30.1% 32 2.9% 17 -4.0% 14 5.3% 19 -34.7% 2
2021 12 17.1% 28 -13.3% 9 25.8% 31 20.0% 30 4.9% 15 -5.1% 14 -8.2% 13

Not only did Chicago rank 29th in interceptions per drive, but they only recorded one interception by a cornerback all year.
🏈 No team was worse at defending deep passes than the Bears last season. Their 69.3% DVOA rating against deep passes
ranked dead last, just barely worse than the 49ers (68.5%). The blunders against the Raiders and at Green Bay, when the Bears
hilariously blew coverages deep down the field by at least 10 yards and even collided into each other at times, summarize
their issues succinctly. 🏈 Related, the Bears posted the second-largest difference between their short pass defense DVOA
(-11.7%) and their deep pass defense DVOA (69.3%), coming in at a difference of 81.0%. The Chicago secondary wasn’t bad
at everything, just the thing the offense values most. 🏈 Cornerback Jaylon Johnson ranked 76th out of 80 qualifying players
in yards after catch allowed. He is a good press corner but can be prone to losing a step and struggling to recover, especially
underneath. 🏈 Second-round safety Jaquan Brisker (Penn State) is the complement to Eddie Jackson that the Bears have
been looking for. Well-built at 6-foot-1 and 199 pounds, Brisker shines as a strong safety where he can roam around near the
box, tackle, and get physical with tight ends and slot receivers, either in low zone coverage or man. He can play deep a little
as well, giving the Bears some flexibility between him and Jackson. 🏈 Chicago also drafted Washington cornerback Kyler
Gordon in the second round. In some ways, he is a copy of Johnson, which hints at what Chicago wants stylistically. He is a
long, chippy press corner with impressive ball skills, but may find himself a step or two behind quicker receivers, particularly
early on while he is learning the ropes of the NFL. He can start right away, but be patient with the results. 🏈 Quietly, Dane
Cruikshank is an excellent signing as a rotational player and potential third safety. Cruikshank played well in Tennessee last
year, proving to be someone who can survive just enough in coverage while providing good effort and tackling when working
downhill. He is good enough to warrant some three-safety looks at best while providing good insurance at the position at worst.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.9% 13 -4.6 23 -3.5 24 7.5 2 2.0 16 3.3 6 2.2 13
2020 2.6% 8 7.0 6 2.7 11 7.9 3 -1.8 21 -2.9 23 5.3 10
2021 2.1% 7 1.5 13 5.3 8 -1.6 18 -3.6 26 9.5 1 -6.5 26

The Bears were one of four teams to improve their special teams DVOA ranking in each of the past three seasons, climbing
from 13th to eighth to seventh. The coordinator responsible for that growth, Chris Tabor, is now with the Carolina Panthers. 🏈
Chicago is losing arguably the best punt returner in the NFL, Jakeem Grant. Grant ranked fourth in punt return value in 2020
(with the Dolphins) and first in 2021 (mostly with the Bears). He can be volatile—his bad is disastrous—but few returners in
the league can match his big-play potential. 🏈 The Bears failed to replace Cordarrelle Patterson, who had two straight top-
five finishes in kick return value. Chicago’s best kick returner last season, rookie running back Khalil Herbert, finished just 25th
in kick return value. He isn’t much of a burner, so the fit never made sense beyond desperation. 🏈 Velus Jones Jr. is likely
the team’s new kick and punt returner. Jones’ 15.1 yards per punt return at Tennessee ranked second in the country last season,
while his 27.3 yards per kick return also ranked in the top 20. Jones has five years of kick return experience dating back to his
days at USC. 🏈 Fellow rookie Trestan Ebner (Baylor) may push Jones for at least one of those spots. Ebner’s best season
 CHICAGO BEARS 49

as a returner was back in 2020, when he averaged over 32 yards per kick return and took two back to the house. 🏈 Cairo
Santos has improved on kickoffs over the past three seasons. He earned -1.1 points below expectation with the Titans in 2019,
but that figure rose to 0.6 in 2020 and again to 1.6 in 2021. 🏈 With Pat O’Donnell gone to Green Bay in free agency, the
Bears used a seventh-round pick on North Carolina State punter Trenton Gill. He’s more of a strong leg than a placement guy
but was first-team all-ACC last season.
 Cincinnati Bengals
2021 record: 10-7 Total DVOA: -0.1% (17) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.6 wins On the Clock (0-5): 12%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.6 (9) Offense: 1.3% (18) Postseason Odds: 45.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 36%
Snap-Weighted Age: 25.9 (29) Defense: 3.0% (19) Super Bowl Odds: 6.2% Playoff Contender (9-11): 38%
Average Opponent: -2.9% (30) Special Teams: 1.6% (8) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 1.9% (6) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 14%

2021: The Bengals in the Super Bowl?? The Bengals in the Super Bowl!!

2022: Congratulations, but what have you done for me lately?

Y ou’d be forgiven for not believing in Cincinnati in 2021,

especially if you read the Football Outsiders Almanac
before the season, when someone who will remain nameless
a top-five DVOA like they did in 1981 (fifth) and 1988 (sec-
ond). This was a wholly unexpected rocket ship ride, and the
aftermath is not the bitter taste of lost opportunity but rather the
(but it rhymes with “Schmike Panier”) crapped all over the sweet nectar of a promising young team with a star quarterback
Bengals, dismissing them as a sleepy, bumbling organization on a rookie contract and a franchise that suddenly seems to pos-
poised to waste the stupendous good fortune of failing into sess a clear definition of what it wants to be. The sense is clearly
Joe Burrow, Franchise Quarterback. that the best is yet to come for the Burrow Bengals.
And if as late as New Year’s Eve the Bengals were not on Unfortunately, all that gets you these days is a projection
your AFC contender radar screen, well, that wasn’t exactly that comes in seventh in the conference and second in the AFC
falling asleep at the console in the manner of the guys who North.
missed the Japanese planes en route to Pearl Harbor. Before This seems like the proper place to explore the fact that even
the calendar flipped to January 2022, Cincy was 9-6, with a as the Burrow-to-Ja’Marr Chase combination was terrorizing
quartet of cathartic stomps of the HMO Ravens and the Little defenses and the Bengals rose from the dregs of the league to
Ben Steelers to their credit. But they were also maddeningly playoff contention, our numbers didn’t really believe in the
inconsistent, losing to the Jets and Bears and in overtime to team or (to a lesser degree) Burrow himself. The second-year
the Packers and Niners. They were 18th in DVOA, behind the quarterback was the darling of many other metrics. EPA, IQR,
Browns and the Broncos and the Seahawks, for cripes’ sake. PFF—pick an acronym and most likely it swooned before
The Bengals were improved from the last two dreadful sea- Burrow like a salesperson at a hip sunglasses store. But he
sons, surely, but a cut below the cream of the conference. Yet remained stubbornly low for much of the season by DYAR/
another wild-card weekend loss seemed their ceiling. DVOA, and his team was in the bottom half of the DVOA
Then came the most dizzying month in the history of the rankings for the entire second half of the season.
team. The Bengals outslugged the Chiefs in a crazy game in Truth is, there were a few sound reasons for the gulf. Cin-
which they rebounded from three separate 14-point deficits to cinnati was an extreme boom-or-bust offense. Their game-to-
win on a last-second kick, which also happened to clinch the game variance ranked in the top 10. The schizophrenia was
AFC North. After taking Week 18 off to prepare for the play- even more pronounced within games. The Bengals generally
offs, they beat Las Vegas thanks to a goal-line interception screwed around for a while (first-quarter DVOA, 29th) be-
in the dying moments, Cincy’s first postseason victory since fore completing a long pass or two (second-quarter DVOA,
1990. On to Nashville, where they shocked the top-seeded seventh) that foresaw a post-halftime explosion (third-quarter
Titans (despite giving up nine sacks) on another field goal DVOA, fifth) followed by the team pulling into a conservative
as time expired, the franchise’s first road playoff win ever. shell (fourth-quarter DVOA, 21st). Down-to-down consisten-
When the Bengals rallied from 21-3 down to beat Kansas City cy, the heart of our metric, was not exactly Cincy’s long suit.
again, this time on the road and in overtime, to capture the DVOA did underappreciate the Bengals in some ways. The
AFC Championship, it capped a series of games that left the big plays to Chase and Tee Higgins, et al., were rewarded, but
team’s long-suffering fans giddy with the narcosis of victory. with diminishing returns. Playing penalty-free football (the
The unexpected run also captured the imagination of other Bengals had the fewest yards and best net penalty yardage in
teams across the league—if the Bengals, of all teams, can do football, and they were second in penalties assessed) helped
this out of nowhere, why can’t we? the team considerably more on the field than in DVOA. And
Alas, if only they played the Super Bowl in January… Cincy benefited from a schedule that turned out to be far cushier
The Super Bowl loss, while painful of course, wasn’t quite as than expected, especially when it came to opposing defenses.
excruciating as the other two ultimate defeats in team history, Cincy’s unadjusted passing VOA was 23.1%. After factoring in
both at the hands of the 49ers in the 1980s. This time, the Ben- the defenses, it fell to 16.5%, by far the largest gap in the NFL.
gals didn’t waste a dominant season. Cincinnati was not a No. (The next-largest difference belonged to the Vikings, who fell
1 seed like they were in 1981 and 1988, and they didn’t have 4.5 percentage points.) Those depleted and defective defenses
50
 CINCINNATI BENGALS 51

2021 CIN DVOA by Week

2022 Bengals Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 PIT 7 ATL 13 KC
2 at DAL 8 at CLE (Mon.) 14 CLE 40%
3 at NYJ 9 CAR 15 at TB 20%
4 MIA (Thu.) 10 BYE 16 at NE (Sat.)
0%
5 at BAL 11 at PIT 17 BUF (Mon.)
6 at NO 12 at TEN 18 BAL -20%

-40%

-60%

also hurt Burrow’s DVOA/DYAR, as did the fact that our met- -80%

rics factored in his sky-high sack totals, which standard stats -100%

and even some other advanced metrics did not.

Table 1. Cincinnati Bengals Assuring Burrow would not have to use a cane except as
DVOA by Week, 2021 a fashion accoutrement was supposed to be a primary con-
cern before last season. Cincy just happened to protect their
Weeks Off DVOA Rk Def DVOA Rk ST DVOA Rk quarterback with a wide receiver rather than a lineman. The
Weeks 1-9 -6.1% 23 5.3% 22 -0.1% 17 Bengals were widely criticized—including by us—for taking
Weeks 11-17 14.0% 6 -0.9% 18 3.2% 10 Chase fifth overall in the 2021 draft rather than Penei Sewell
Playoffs* 2.9% 5 -11.2% 7 13.1% 2 or Rashawn Slater. But somewhere on his way to 1,455 yards,
*Ranked out of 14 playoff teams. 13 touchdowns, and the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award,
Chase showed that a top-flight X receiver who can dictate
The Bengals clearly improved in the second half of the sea- how defenses play is every bit as protective to a quarterback
son, and then the defense and special teams improved even as the blind-side moose—and can win you games more readi-
further in the postseason (Table 1). There were multiple fac- ly. Exhibit A came in Week 17 against the Chiefs, when Chase
tors involved, perhaps none more crucial than Burrow’s grow- caught 11 of 12 targets, many of them of the “holy crap!” va-
ing comfort with his surgically repaired knee. Lack of full riety, for 266 yards and three touchdowns. Et voila! Suddenly
trust in the knee clearly hindered Burrow and the team’s over- teams are trading enormous draft capital and spending top
all approach in the season’s first half. The Chargers game in dollar to try and copy the Burrow-to-Chase formula.
Week 13 helped change matters. The Bengals fell behind 24-0 Of course, the Bengals did come to rue not upgrading the
and game script dictated any shackles be cast aside. Burrow line, though it took until the last play of the last drive of the
nearly pulled off an amazing comeback with his arm, and after last game before they could not overcome the deficiency. The
that, Burrow’s average attempts ballooned from 30.8 in the unit was treading water well enough until right tackle Riley
first 11 games to 35.9 in the nine that followed, including the Reiff went down late in the season. That put replacement-
playoffs. Burrow’s running took modest strides as well, going level players at three positions, from center (Trey Hopkins)
from 21 carries for 42 yards in the first 11 games to 19 carries to right guard (the Jackson Carman/Hakeem Adeniji platoon
for 76 yards in the season’s back nine, including a goal-line from hell) out to right tackle, where Isaiah Prince filled in for
juke that left Minkah Fitzpatrick’s jock fully exposed to the Reiff. Meanwhile the left guard, Quinton Spain, who had a
Cincinnati chill. It was subtle, but whatever mental hurdles solid first three months, wore down noticeably over the long
the quarterback needed to clear after his terrible injury were 21-game siege. Only left tackle Jonah Williams displayed any
fully leapt come winter. lasting merit, and he ain’t exactly Anthony Muñoz.
There was a bit of “out of sight, out of mind” concerning The lack of faith in the line was one reason why the Ben-
the Bengals quarterback coming into the season. With all gals continued to avoid play fakes (30th in the rate of play-
the hoopla surrounding the rookie quarterbacks entering the action passes), supposedly a key element in the scheme head
league, as well as the Next Big Thing hosannas thrown toward coach Zac Taylor brought over from his apprenticeship under
Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, Burrow quietly limped back to Sean McVay. The skittishness was borne out—the offense
work, largely forgotten outside the 513 area code. That his first stunk when they did play-fake. Cincinnati’s split was abomi-
full season in the NFL culminated in not just the Comeback nable, with a -19.1% DVOA on play-action passes, 29th in the
Player of the Year Award but on the cusp of the Lombardi Tro- NFL, compared to 28.0% DVOA when they threw it without
phy was an amazing achievement that catapulted Burrow, aka the subterfuge. The front five was also 31st in power (short-
Joey Franchise, aka Joe Brrr, aka Joe Shiesty, aka—OK, you yardage) situations, 31st in adjusted sack rate, and gave up 13
get the point—back to the forefront of the public imagination, sacks we charted as “rusher untouched” (no other unit gave
where he once strutted while winning the national title at LSU up double figures). Burrow was the first quarterback since Da-
and getting picked first overall in the draft. vid Carr on the expansion 2002 Texans to take 70 total sacks
52 CINCINNATI BENGALS

(in both the regular season and the postseason). The pressure son-in-law Troy Blackburn—who actually run the team most
lasted all the way up to that final play of the Super Bowl; had of the time along with de facto general manager Duke Tobin—
the line held out even one more second, Burrow might have have taken heat for their parsimony, their small-time and inces-
seen Chase streaking unguarded down the sideline… tuous methods, and their lack of recent success. But everything
Burrow avoided another catastrophic injury, but he was broke Brown’s way in 2021 (except for the drafting of Carman,
hospitalized briefly after suffering a throat contusion (and a shaky prospect widely viewed by Bengals Kremlinologists
was put on “voice rest” for a couple of weeks), had his right as the owner’s pick), even beyond the selection of Chase over
pinky grotesquely dislocated, and played large chunks of the Sewell. Bringing back Taylor after just six wins in his first two
season on a sprained knee (not the one with the torn ACL). seasons was scorned as “typical Bengals”—until Taylor flipped
Joey Bengal’s toughness is legendary, but further proof of it is the narrative and reminded everyone that patience is a vir-
completely unnecessary. tue. Laughed at for letting analytics darlings William Jackson
Never let it be said the Bengals won’t do what is absolute- (corner) and Carl Lawson (edge rusher) walk in free agency,
ly mandatory. The team inked three new starters (center Ted Cincinnati replaced them with Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton,
Karras, guard Alex Cappa, and tackle La’el Collins) in free and Trey Hendrickson, all of whom played critical roles in the
agency to shore up the caved-in levee wall and drafted an- team’s success and outperformed their predecessors. Even the
other interior lineman (Cordell Volson) to compete with three kicker the team drafted in the fifth round (“how dare they!”),
second-year holdovers (Carman, D’Ante Smith, and Trey Evan McPherson, turned out to be an assassin who coolly boot-
Hill), at least one of whom hopefully shows some develop- ed his way into team lore.
ment. All of the fresh sandbags should in theory allow the elite Was it all just a fluke? Precisely one year’s ration of good kar-
Bengals skill players—who include Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and ma elicited by the franchise, at long last, starting a Ring of Hon-
Joe Mixon in addition to Burrow and Chase—to perform at or at Paul Brown Stadium? An overdue season of largely good
maximum potency. health? (Chase was the team’s first first-round pick to make it
The irony of the Super Bowl run was that it was made pos- through the year unscathed since 2013.) A crazy set of circum-
sible thanks to the largely anonymous defense and special stances that included the injury implosion of the Ravens, the
teams, not the bold-faced offense. In prior offseasons, Cincin- Browns and Steelers fifth-columned by their own quarterbacks,
nati spent heavily on that side of the ball to enlist fast, versatile a top seed with an even worse DVOA than the Bengals in Ten-
players who could combat division rivals Lamar Jackson and nessee, and catching the Chiefs off their epic and exhausting
Nick Chubb, who routinely ate their defense for breakfast and encounter with Buffalo prior to the AFC title game?
came back still hungry for lunch. The team has doubled down To go by our projections, as well as the general consensus
on that approach, drafting a trio of fleet, heady, and multi-po- around the sport, yes … and no. The Bengals aren’t likely
sitional defensive backs (Daxton Hill, Cam Taylor-Britt, and to crash back down with the bottom-feeders. Quite the con-
Tycen Anderson) as they set sights beyond the division to the trary—we have them improving in overall DVOA and getting
high-octane AFC writ large. right back into the playoff mix. But the rest of the AFC figures
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo brought little pedigree to be much more potent. In the AFC North, the Ravens can’t
into the 2021 season but emerged as the strategist who spiked possibly be as brutalized as they were last season, the Browns
Jackson with blitz-heavy tactics, stopped Derrick Henry in his added Deshaun Watson to an already powerful roster, and the
tracks, and thoroughly flummoxed Patrick Mahomes into a Steelers at last sent Ben Roethlisberger off on an ice floe.
pair of unsightly second halves. The defense has weaknesses Cincinnati projects to play the second-hardest schedule in
still, especially against the pass (24th in DVOA and 26th in the league, including a date at Dallas, a trip to tangle with Tom
completion rate allowed), but at least Anarumo has a clear Brady, and return dates with the Chiefs and Titans courtesy of
idea of his modus operandi and the personnel that fits it. The last year’s first-place finish. Even if the Bengals can navigate
fact that he mostly mixes up his game plans depending on a way back to the postseason, the teams encountered there will
opponent and his signature style is amorphous and resists ob- undoubtedly be stronger than the “gauntlet” they ran through
vious labelling befits Anarumo’s low profile. Commentators in 2021. And of course, teams that lose the Super Bowl have a
can’t point to “Cincinnati’s patented Cover-2” or “heavy blitz- checkered history of achievement the following year—to cite
ing” or other easily digestible schemes. just one example, the 1989 Bengals fell to 8-8 and missed the
The strategic tendencies bear this out—the Bengals ranked playoffs in the season after their heartbreaking loss in Miami.
in the middle of the pack in most areas, a sign Anarumo tried But after thirty years of stumbling through the postseason
to remain flexible and not lean on any particular approach. wilderness, it will take an epic fail to erase the intoxicating
When the Bengals did rank high or low in a specific tendency, effects of last January among Bengals fans. Even if the team
such as hardly ever keeping cornerbacks to predetermined stumbles at an earlier gate this year, the Super Bowl window
sides or frequently sending just three pass-rushers and rare- remains open, with a fresh breeze blowing through Cincinnati.
ly five, it still seemed in service to being unpredictable on a And if there is one thing that should be apparent by now, it is
week-by-week basis. that with Burrow under center (or, preferably, in shotgun), all
Of all the areas of the franchise that deserved to do the Ickey things are possible.
Shuffle or the Griddy on its critics, the front office was easily
first. Owner Mike Brown and his progeny, daughter Kate and Robert Weintraub
 CINCINNATI BENGALS 53

2021 Bengals by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 MIN W 40% 27 24 366 403 1 13% 15% 9% 7% Total DVOA 1.3% 18 3.0% 19
2 at CHI L 8% 17 20 248 206 -3 -37% -63% -24% 2% Unadjusted VOA 5.7% 14 3.1% 20
3 at PIT W 100% 24 10 268 342 1 61% 32% -22% 7% Weighted Trend 4.5% 12 4.6% 24
4 JAX W 88% 24 21 420 341 0 -8% 26% 32% -2% Variance 10.0% 24 3.6% 8
5 GB L 9% 22 25 367 466 -1 -17% -3% 1% -13% Average Opponent 3.4% 31 0.5% 14
6 at DET W 98% 34 11 398 228 0 4% -7% -13% -2%
7 at BAL W 97% 41 17 520 393 -1 23% 23% 3% 4% Passing 16.5% 15 11.6% 24
8 at NYJ L 2% 31 34 318 511 2 -65% -36% 29% 0% Rushing -10.7% 20 -9.8% 13
9 CLE L 0% 16 41 348 361 -3 -64% -27% 34% -3%
First Down 1.3% 16 12.1% 31
10 BYE
Second Down -1.7% 18 -6.6% 10
11 at LV W 81% 32 13 288 278 1 20% 0% -11% 9%
Third Down 6.2% 14 0.2% 19
12 PIT W 100% 41 10 370 301 2 48% 26% -14% 8%
13 LAC L 1% 22 41 356 363 -1 -24% -23% -3% -4% First Half -4.6% 19 4.2% 24
14 SF L 27% 23 26 397 355 -2 13% 12% -14% -13% Second Half 6.7% 14 1.7% 15
15 at DEN W 61% 15 10 249 292 1 10% -19% -8% 21%
16 BAL W 100% 41 21 575 334 1 51% 57% 10% 4% Red Zone 0.4% 16 16.4% 28
17 KC W 22% 34 31 475 414 0 6% 38% 28% -3% Late and Close 10.8% 8 0.9% 17
18 at CLE L 3% 16 21 182 376 2 -35% -33% 8% 6%
19 LV W 92% 26 19 308 385 2 30% 24% 6% 13%
20 at TEN W 92% 19 16 345 353 2 20% -15% -17% 17%
21 at KC W 86% 27 24 359 375 1 33% 4% -13% 17%
22 LAR L 38% 20 23 305 313 2 24% -2% -21% 6%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 7-9 6.2 6.5 290 349 -9 -14.3% 24 -6.9% 22 5.0% 21 -2.4% 21 42.0 21 37.0 18 26.6 19 26.4 14 25.1 29
2018 6-10 5.9 7.1 368 455 +1 -10.8% 24 -3.7% 21 9.7% 28 2.6% 7 55.3 27 42.6 23 25.6 29 25.8 25 25.6 23
2019 2-14 4.3 4.0 279 420 -14 -27.6% 31 -16.6% 29 15.6% 30 4.6% 1 55.9 28 27.3 11 26.1 26 26.3 15 25.9 15
2020 4-11-1 5.1 4.4 311 424 -7 -24.7% 30 -18.2% 29 9.1% 27 2.6% 9 39.0 17 49.9 21 25.6 27 26.3 18 26.2 13
2021 10-7 10.6 8.4 460 376 0 -0.1% 17 1.3% 18 3.0% 19 1.6% 8 31.9 8 31.3 12 25.8 28 26.0 23 26.2 13

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

CIN Offense CIN Offense vs. Opponents CIN Defense CIN Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 78% 6.5 16.8% 31% Base 18% 4.6 -14.0% 68% Base 21% 5.4 3.2% 11 60% 5.5 0.1%
12 12% 4.6 -28.3% 58% Nickel 66% 6.0 8.7% 38% Nickel 64% 5.7 4.8% 12 19% 6.2 17.5%
612 7% 3.7 -34.0% 93% Dime+ 15% 8.5 26.5% 7% Dime+ 15% 6.2 -12.1% 21 7% 4.8 -14.5%
13 2% 5.2 8.8% 57% Goal Line 1% 0.3 -93.5% 50% Goal Line 0% 0.8 50.6% 13 4% 6.9 10.3%
10 1% 3.9 -106.8% 9% Big 1% 0.7 -49.7% 91% 20 2% 6.6 -18.4%
54 CINCINNATI BENGALS

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 33% 29 Form: Single Back 80% 21 Rush 3 10.8% 4 4 DB 21% 24 Play Action 21% 30
Runs, first down 51% 10 Form: Empty Back 14% 2 Rush 4 69.8% 17 5 DB 64% 12 Offensive Motion 40% 21
Runs, second-long 26% 20 Form: Multi Back 5% 22 Rush 5 13.5% 29 6+ DB 15% 17 Avg Box (Off) 6.42 22
Runs, power sit. 58% 14 Pers: 3+ WR 79% 3 Rush 6+ 5.9% 10 Man Coverage 26% 23 Avg Box (Def) 6.45 20
Runs, behind 2H 36% 3 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 21% 29 Edge Rusher Sacks 58.5% 11 CB by Sides 57% 30 Offensive Pace 32.79 30
Pass, ahead 2H 49% 12 Pers: 6+ OL 7% 6 Interior DL Sacks 35.4% 10 S/CB Cover Ratio 22% 24 Defensive Pace 32.49 31
Run-Pass Options 5% 26 Shotgun/Pistol 63% 18 Second Level Sacks 6.1% 29 DB Blitz 10% 19 Go for it on 4th 0.99 19

Think it would help a bad offensive line to bring in more linemen to block? Not in Cincinnati last year. The Bengals had
-39.9% DVOA with six linemen, the lowest figure among the 16 teams that used six linemen on at least 30 plays. 🏈 The
Bengals led the NFL with 5.8 average yards after the catch on passes past the line of scrimmage. San Francisco was the only
other team above 5.0. But the Bengals had a below-average 8.1 average yards after the catch on passes at or behind the line of
scrimmage. 🏈 Cincinnati was sixth in the NFL with 132 broken tackles and third with at least one broken tackle on 11.8%
of plays. 🏈 Broken tackles were as bad for the Cincinnati defense as they were good for the offense, as the Bengals ranked
30th in the league with 141 broken tackles. Although no single Bengals defender had more than 15 broken tackles, seven dif-
ferent players had at least 10. 🏈 Cincinnati used man coverage much less often than the year before, dropping from 41% of
passes (fifth) in 2020 to 26% of passes (23rd) in 2021. The Bengals were a better defense in man coverage (6.4 yards per pass,
5.1% DVOA) than zone (7.6 yards, 36.8% DVOA) but this is not a split that shows consistency from year to year.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Burrow 609 5.1% 569 4241 7.5 6.2 70.7% 34 14 J.Chase 326 19.3% 128 81 1455 18.0 8.0 13 63%
B.Allen -44 -30.4% 37 116 3.1 7.1 51.5% 2 0 T.Higgins 334 25.0% 110 74 1091 14.7 3.9 6 67%
T.Boyd 109 2.2% 94 67 828 12.4 5.8 5 71%
M.Thomas -31 -46.8% 11 5 52 10.4 2.6 0 45%
Rushing C.J.Uzomah* 75 11.4% 63 49 493 10.1 6.1 5 78%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc D.Sample -21 -28.4% 15 11 81 7.4 7.5 0 73%
J.Mixon 87 -1.8% 292 1205 4.1 13 1 51% H.Hurst -23 -18.5% 31 26 221 8.5 3.4 3 84%
S.Perine 2 -7.8% 55 246 4.5 1 0 45% J.Mixon -16 -18.8% 48 42 314 7.5 7.6 3 88%
J.Burrow -24 -23.9% 33 126 3.8 2 1 - S.Perine 27 4.1% 31 27 196 7.3 7.3 1 87%
C.Evans 1 -7.0% 17 77 4.5 0 0 41% C.Evans 66 56.1% 17 15 151 10.1 7.5 2 88%
T.Williams -7 -19.0% 15 51 3.4 0 0 53%
J.Chase 4 -28.0% 7 21 3.0 0 0 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Jonah Williams LT 25 16/16 1046 4 5.0 22 9 Isaiah Prince RT 25 15/4 385 6 1.5 9 2
Quinton Spain* LG 31 16/16 997 4 4.5 15 2 Trey Hill C 22 13/3 211 6 0.0 1 2
Trey Hopkins* C 30 15/15 929 4 3.5 7 7 Alex Cappa RG 27 17/17 1183 0 3.0 17 8
Riley Reiff* RT 34 12/12 712 1 3.0 5 10 Ted Karras LG 29 17/13 832 2 1.0 7 8
Hakeem Adeniji RG 25 9/9 556 3 2.0 13 8 La'el Collins RT 29 12/10 672 8 2.0 11 3
Jackson Carman RG 22 17/6 463 5 0.5 7 5

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.95 3.90 26 67% 13 22% 29 1.10 23 0.70 19 15.8% 32 48 7.3% 20 24.8% 3 15.6% 29 21
2020 3.92 3.88 31 61% 24 19% 26 1.13 22 0.56 25 11.0% 20 48 7.6% 24 22.2% 9 14.6% 28 21
2021 4.17 4.36 15 51% 31 15% 7 1.20 16 0.57 18 11.4% 15 55 9.1% 31 25.5% 14 13.2% 14 22
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.17 (18) Left Tackle: 4.62 (10) Mid/Guard: 4.20 (18) Right Tackle: 4.52 (9) Right End: 4.50 (11)
 CINCINNATI BENGALS 55

Over 200 million people watched the offensive line struggle in the Super Bowl, so even the casual fan knew the unit needed an
upgrade. And that’s just what happened in free agency. 🏈 Ted Karras replaces Trey Hopkins at center and can play either guard
position if the need arises. A tough, no-nonsense dude whom Bill Belichick raved about, Karras is the great-nephew of Hall-of-
Famer Alex Karras, though Ted is no “pawn in game of life.” He is on his third team in three years, a slight worry, but he is prob-
ably the best center the Bengals have had since Rich Braham. 🏈 Alex Cappa comes over from Tampa Bay to handle right guard,
a 2021 wasteland. Flagged for just a single penalty in the last two seasons, Cappa, like Karras, makes up for a lack of high-end
athleticism with a solid foundation and good old-fashioned orneriness. Tom Brady tried to get him to return after his un-retirement
but the Bengals had already swooped in, contract in hand. 🏈 The team was more patient with La’el Collins, holding their nerve
until Dallas released him, then signing him to take over right tackle, another position that has been weak since the days of Willie
Anderson. Unlike Cappa, Collins can be undisciplined (10 penalties in 621 snaps) and his injury history is well documented. But
he is head, shoulders, and most of the torso above what the Bengals were forced to use last season, especially after Riley Reiff got
hurt. 🏈 Jonah Williams is what passes for solid on this line, and the team picked up his fifth-year option despite the fact Wil-
liams was 27th among left tackles in snaps per blown block. Like several Bengals linemen, his run blocking was much better than
his pass blocking in 2021. 🏈 Left guard will be the consuming question of the summer. Second-round rookie Jackson Carman
struggled with the transition to becoming a professional, not to mention with the intricacies of right guard, a position he learned
on the fly after spending his college career at left tackle. He did show flashes, however, so he will likely enter camp as the starter.
But fourth-round pick Cordell Volson, from the football factory at North Dakota State, will be pushing hard, as will UDFA Ben
Brown of that slightly lesser football factory, Mississippi. Brown tore a biceps tendon in October or he would likely have been a
mid-round pick. 🏈 Hakeem Adeniji, fresh off finishing last among right guards in blown block rate, has proven that if he has
an NFL position, it is outside, where his lack of upper body power is less noticeable. He will compete with playoff turnstile Isaiah
Prince and 2021 fourth-round pick D’Ante Smith for the swing tackle role.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Larry Ogunjobi* 28 DT 16 724 49 6.0% 37 38 17 10 36 75% 26 2.0 24 7.0 11 23 0
D.J. Reader 28 DT 15 590 43 5.6% 48 32 5 1 36 78% 15 1.9 18 2.0 5 11 0
B.J. Hill 27 DT 16 502 50 6.1% 33 34 9 1 42 67% 58 2.5 40 5.5 6 12 0
Josh Tupou 28 DT 17 410 12 1.4% -- 10 2 1 11 82% -- 2.0 -- 0.0 1 5 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Sam Hubbard 27 DE 16 877 64 7.8% 11 48 20 6 47 68% 66 3.0 69 7.5 9 34 3
Trey Hendrickson 28 DE 16 717 34 4.2% 70 25 18 3 14 64% 76 1.8 15 14.0 13 39 1
Cameron Sample 23 DE 14 310 14 2.0% -- 11 3 2 10 70% -- 5.5 -- 1.5 3 6 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Logan Wilson 26 MLB 13 707 102 15.4% 23 45 15 13 48 56% 46 3.9 48 1.0 1 2 34 24% 72 8.4 64 4 4
Germaine Pratt 26 OLB 15 692 90 11.8% 46 38 13 15 49 51% 61 4.4 68 0.5 1 5 30 43% 52 7.6 55 2 1
Markus Bailey 25 OLB 16 256 40 4.9% -- 17 6 1 20 45% -- 4.8 -- 0.5 0 0 12 50% -- 5.3 -- 3 0
Akeem Davis-Gaither 25 MLB 9 207 29 6.3% -- 11 2 6 8 25% -- 6.0 -- 0.0 0 3 15 53% -- 5.0 -- 3 0
Joe Bachie 24 OLB 9 160 29 6.3% -- 11 2 3 13 38% -- 3.1 -- 0.0 0 0 6 33% -- 10.8 -- 1 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.58 4.55 24 66% 20 21% 9 1.36 28 0.88 24 13.5% 13 31 6.3% 24 31.4% 11 14.7% 19
2020 5.34 4.83 27 59% 5 13% 27 1.44 30 1.29 31 9.7% 25 17 3.7% 32 19.9% 31 9.8% 30
2021 4.32 4.03 9 71% 23 17% 17 1.23 20 0.80 25 10.6% 27 42 6.4% 19 23.9% 22 12.8% 23
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.72 (10) Left Tackle: 4.72 (23) Mid/Guard: 3.91 (9) Right Tackle: 3.44 (3) Right End: 4.91 (23)

The Bengals had 42 sacks, 25 more than in 2020 and their most since 2015. But the adjusted sack rate was just 6.4%, 19th in
the league, because Cincinnati was also near the top of the league in passes faced. They ranked 25th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win
Rate. 🏈 Some thought Trey Hendrickson’s 13.5 sacks with the Saints in 2020 were a by-product of playing opposite Cam
Jordan, until he put up 14 opposite Sam Hubbard in Cincy. Hubbard notched 7.5 sacks of his own, giving him 24 in four seasons
in stripes. Both Hubbard and Hendrickson get labelled as “try-hard” types but given how the efforts of Bengals pass-rushers
56 CINCINNATI BENGALS

have waxed and waned over the years, trying hard is no pejorative along the banks of the Ohio. 🏈 Another quality edge
rusher is desperately needed. Joseph Ossai, a third-round pick a year ago, had a dream beginning to his NFL career, sacking
Tom Brady in his first preseason series as a pro. Later in the game, Ossai tore his meniscus and was lost for the year. Nightmare.
This year, Joe O hopefully provides the extra juice off the edge. Cam Sample, Khalid Kareem, and seventh-round pick Jeffery
Gunter (Coastal Carolina) are depth pieces. 🏈 Inside, the two-headed monster of Larry Ogunjobi and B.J. Hill is down to
one head, with Ogunjobi departing in free agency. (He failed his physical in Chicago but is unlikely to return to the Bengals.)
Hill and outstanding nose tackle D.J. Reader are strong starters, but depth is a worry, so the team selected versatile Zachary
Carter from Florida in the third round. Carter has good upper-body strength and above-average lateral quickness. With some
added weight, he could fill the 3-technique role vacated by Ogunjobi and occasionally kick outside as well. 🏈 Linebacker
Logan Wilson broke out in his second season with 100 combined tackles and four picks, not counting the crucial one late in the
divisional playoff game at Tennessee. A converted safety, Wilson came into the NFL with a reputation as a strong pass defender,
but he blossomed into a three-down defender in 2021. The only worry is availability—Wilson has missed four games in each
of his first two seasons. 🏈 Germaine Pratt saved his best play for the postseason, including the interception that won Cincy
its first playoff game since Hector was a pup. His regular season numbers also showed improvement, especially in the passing
game. Pratt tended to overrun plays and take poor angles in the past, but if the light indeed has gone on for him, he is a power-
ful hitter with enough speed to cover the field laterally. He and Wilson are both 25 and ideally are entering their prime. 🏈
Markus Bailey, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Joe Bachie, all hurt to varying degrees in 2021, will battle for those rare snaps when
a third linebacker is required. (Cincinnati played only 21% base defense last year.)

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Vonn Bell 28 SS 16 1004 105 12.9% 16 48 18 12 40 50% 13 6.9 35 34 8.5% 37 10.1 62% 19 5.8 18 8 1
Eli Apple 27 CB 16 979 59 7.2% 61 22 12 11 12 25% 66 6.0 37 57 14.6% 76 14.4 60% 17 7.5 51 10 2
Jessie Bates 25 FS 15 953 92 12.0% 23 32 14 12 33 39% 32 7.6 45 25 6.6% 59 14.5 32% 75 15.1 75 4 1
Mike Hilton 28 CB 17 803 71 8.2% 47 39 19 14 23 74% 1 2.6 1 57 17.8% 63 8.9 53% 48 8.0 55 5 2
Chidobe Awuzie 27 CB 14 777 78 10.9% 12 38 18 7 11 45% 38 6.8 52 73 23.6% 15 14.6 67% 4 5.3 10 14 2
Tre Flowers 27 CB 16 391 34 4.2% -- 8 4 2 10 20% -- 8.5 -- 32 22.0% -- 10.5 44% -- 8.6 -- 1 0
Trae Waynes* 30 CB 5 243 13 5.1% -- 4 1 4 2 50% -- 3.5 -- 18 18.6% -- 12.2 50% -- 8.8 -- 1 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 28 22.3% 30 -2.5% 14 21.5% 28 30.1% 32 4.6% 14 10.9% 28 34.3% 31
2020 27 -2.5% 16 -14.7% 6 16.9% 27 9.7% 24 0.4% 20 -6.3% 12 8.0% 24
2021 24 -11.4% 6 19.0% 27 -4.3% 11 -2.7% 20 1.8% 12 17.9% 24 -3.2% 19

Only two teams missed more tackles and just four teams gave up more yards after contact than the Bengals, despite the
emphasis the team placed on tackling in recent offseasons. The secondary was the focus of a complete retool, yet the team’s
passing defense was still a weakness. It did get better, thanks more to quality depth than high-end play. 🏈 Chidobe Awuzie
was one of the best free-agent signings by any team last season. His stellar 2021 was a turnabout from an injury-marred 2020
in Dallas, as he ranked fourth in coverage success rate and improved from 10.8 to 5.3 yards per target. 🏈 Cincy didn’t get
quite the same bang for its buck with free-agent slot corner Mike Hilton, who missed double-digit tackles and conceded a much
higher completion percentage than he had in Pittsburgh the year before. But Hilton continued to make splash plays—his 19
defeats led the back seven, and he led all defensive backs league-wide in run stop rate. 🏈 Eli Apple was a frequent target
of Bengals fans, if not enemy quarterbacks—his target rate was only 76th among qualifying corners. Apple in general defied
perceptions. His success rate ranked 17th among all corners, for example, one slot better than Denzel Ward. Yet most folks in
Cincinnati can’t wait to see him replaced. That doesn’t necessarily include the coaching staff, however. 🏈 Jessie Bates ap-
peared to let stalled contract negotiations affect his play early but returned to his All-Pro level down the stretch and especially
in the playoffs. 🏈 The Bengals appear unwilling to pony up the guaranteed dough required to keep Bates beyond 2022, and
physical box safety Vonn Bell is also a free agent after this season. So the team went hard after more secondary depth in the
draft. Dax Hill, the first-round pick from Michigan, is the exemplar of what the Bengals are looking for on defense: ultra-fast,
instinctive, productive, multi-positional. As a rookie he may be a jack-of-all-trades, but look for him in the Bates role at free
safety in 2023. 🏈 Second-rounder Cam Taylor-Britt of Nebraska and fifth-rounder Tycen Anderson of Toledo are similar to
Hill, if not quite as productive. CTB tends to take poor angles and fall for feints but has tremendous recovery speed. Anderson
is a long and strong hitter who needs seasoning but is reminiscent of former Bengals safety George Iloka. Both players were
team captains and vocal leaders, a trait clearly prized in Cincinnati.
 CINCINNATI BENGALS 57

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 4.6% 1 8.1 6 5.1 6 8.7 1 4.2 12 -3.2 25 -10.3 29
2020 2.6% 9 -2.0 19 0.6 17 6.4 6 7.6 7 0.2 16 -9.5 28
2021 1.6% 8 8.1 5 7.0 2 -3.7 25 2.0 15 -4.6 29 5.2 8

Can you make a case for drafting a kicker? Evan McPherson certainly can. The 2021 fifth-round pick went 9-of-11 on field
goals of 50 or more yards, a rookie record, and then made all 14 kicks, including two game-winners, in the postseason. Big
Mac isn’t Justin Tucker—yet—but he’s a weapon that allowed the Bengals to rethink how they approached drives, knowing
they were in field goal range once they crossed midfield. In part due to McPherson’s leg, Cincinnati was 12th in points per
drive while just 18th in offensive DVOA, and his length off the tee helped the Bengals finish second in net kickoff value. 🏈
Special teams coach Darrin Simmons said he wanted the Bengals to draft a returner who would “put the fear of God” in op-
ponents. Alas, no one fitting that description was selected. (Imagine the pressure if one had been!) Chris Evans did a good job
with kick returns in the postseason after Darius Philips and Brandon Wilson underperformed in the regular season. Philips is
gone, Wilson is on the roster bubble, and Evans may wind up with a larger offensive role, so the job is in flux. The same can be
said for punts, which could be handled by just about anyone on the roster save Joe Burrow. Trent Taylor or Trenton Irwin may
make the team with a good camp in this area. 🏈 Punter Kevin Huber’s value remains in the top half of the league, but he is
entering his age-37 season and wasn’t great in the playoffs. The team stashed Drue Chrisman from Ohio State on the practice
squad last year in order to give him the opportunity to compete for a spot in 2022. 🏈 Are you ready for a long snapper
competition? Cult hero Clark Harris has had the gig since 2009 but the Bengals brought in UDFA Cal Adomitis from Pitt, the
winner of the Patrick Mannelly Award as the best long snapper in college football. Harris angered the coaching staff when he
watched the Super Bowl halftime show instead of being in the locker room with his team. McPherson was out there too, but
they aren’t getting rid of him.
 Cleveland Browns
2021 record: 8-9 Total DVOA: 4.8% (13) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.6 wins On the Clock (0-5): 21%
Pythagorean Wins: 7.9 (20) Offense: 4.2% (14) Postseason Odds: 29.3% Mediocrity (6-8): 42%
Snap-Weighted Age: 25.7 (31) Defense: -2.5% (11) Super Bowl Odds: 2.6% Playoff Contender (9-11): 28%
Average Opponent: -1.2% (24) Special Teams: -1.9% (25) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 1.9% (5) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 8%

2021: Odell Beckham’s catching passes in the Super Bowl! Oh, wait…

2022: Leaving grip indents on the steering wheel as they pray for the public discourse of 2014.

CONTENT WARNING: This chapter contains graphic discussion of sexual assault allegations.

O ver the past seven years, the Cleveland Browns chapter

of Football Outsiders Almanac has kind of become a de
facto argument about the usefulness of analytics. What can they
enormous step forward and finished that season fifth in pass-
ing DVOA. He cut his interception rate drastically, as his only
pick from Week 6 to Week 16 was a ball where Kenny Moore
do for you and how can they help an organization? How hard outmuscled Brandin Cooks at the catch point. The Texans
is it to implement these ideas while dealing with actual football paired one of the 20 worst rushing attacks of all time with
people on a day-to-day basis? Analytics has almost descended an end-of-season lineup that included Keke Coutee and Chad
into parody buzzword over the last five years. Anything a for- Hansen. What Watson did on the field with that is unimpeach-
mer football player dislikes is now, simply, “analytics.” What able. There are quarterbacks who will never compile a career
does analytics actually mean in football parlance? We would highlight reel that looks like what he did against the Patriots
argue it’s about using data to find creative or overlooked ways in Week 11 of that season.
to generate extra value for your football team. Going for it on It could still end up that the trade is looked at as a great win
fourth down in favorable situations, building a good right side for the Browns—time alters a lot about how we feel about
of your offensive line with UDFAs and late-round picks, and things. However, Watson has been embroiled in civil and
finding a way to get pressure on the quarterback without elite criminal lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct for the last 18
pass-rushers are all technically examples of analytics. months. It feels intuitively very wrong to reward the things
And so, in theory, trading for Deshaun Watson is an ana- that we have heard about, let alone for Watson to find a way
lytical victory. Young franchise quarterbacks do not become to wind up here with the first fully guaranteed $230-million
available for any reason. Remember back to how the Texans contract in NFL history because of the leverage he had with
stomped and preened about how Watson would remain with his no-trade clause.
the team during David Culley’s opening press conference?
There was no reason at that moment to envision Houston
would actually trade him. It’s literally a 1/1 event that he was “You asked again if we had ‘privacy space.’ I said yes, then
made available. Acquiring Watson was so obviously a vic- you asked if you could shower before your service. I found
tory in a football sense that four different teams were willing that a little strange, but if you were coming from a training
to pay at least three first-round picks to get in the door. The session, not abnormal. …
Browns were the team in that mix that had the least to lose “As I attempted to start the session you clearly directed me
because they were closest to competing for something with away from a therapeutic glute massage toward your anus. Ev-
Watson. They have an established running game with three ery boundary from professional therapeutic to sexual and de-
strong backs, a very good offensive line, and a defense with grading, you crossed or attempted to cross. You insisted that I
Myles Garrett and some up-and-coming cornerbacks. The one not use my knuckles or forearms, but that I use my fingers for
thing they couldn’t do at any point last season was mount a digital stimulation, which is an ethical violation of massage
passing attack as Baker Mayfield struggled even more than practice when working the gluteal area. …
he had in the past. (In fairness to him, he was playing through “When I covered your groin area, you complained again
a torn labrum and fractured bone in his shoulder following a that the very soft towel I had provided was ‘itchy and rough.’
dislocation.) Do three first-round picks, including one in this At that point, I carefully covered your groin with a softer
year’s rather weak class, bother the Browns if they have Wat- headrest cover. … You were aroused, and removed the cover
son and all those things? It’s probably not a big loss. when I was working on your upper quad area, at which time,
If Watson had come to the Browns like this baggage-free, you moved in such a way that your penis touched my hand.
it would have been regarded as one of the best trades of the You then told me to ‘just grab it’ if it was in my way. This hap-
century. As eager as some people are to discredit Watson due pened multiple times…
to his win-loss record with the 2020 Texans, he truly took an —Lauren Baxley letter, read 4/6/2021
58
 CLEVELAND BROWNS 59

2021 CLE DVOA by Week

2022 Browns Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%
60%
1 at CAR 7 at BAL 13 at HOU
40%
2 NYJ 8 CIN (Mon.) 14 at CIN
3 PIT (Thu.) 9 BYE 15 BAL 20%

4 at ATL 10 at MIA 16 NO (Sat.) 0%

5 LAC 11 at BUF 17 at WAS -20%
6 NE 12 TB 18 at PIT -40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
-120%

ASHLEY SOLIS: As I’m working, he deliberately grabs him-

self and put his penis on my hand. And I pulled my hand away
instantly and I started crying. And I told him that I’m done. I
don’t wanna do this anymore. “But it was Watson himself claiming that even now he has
‘no regrets’ and has done nothing wrong that solidified her re-
KYLA HAYES: He wanted me to kinda make a “V” motion in solve. She brings this case seeking minimum compensation, but
his pelvic area. So go across his stomach to his thighs, back to obtain a court finding that Watson’s conduct was wrong.”
to his stomach. I just kept massaging and did what he asked – Court petition from 23rd accuser, 5/31/2022
until his penis kept touching me repeatedly as I did it. He was
moving his penis back and forth as my hands moved as well.
Society as a whole has had a lousy track record throughout
SOLEDAD O’BRIEN: It allowed him to, kind of, put his penis history of listening to the victims it creates. Part of the media’s
on to your hands? role in this—perhaps the one thing that social media and the
Internet as a whole have been extremely good at shining a spot-
HAYES: Exactly. light on—is manufacturing consent. If you were to listen to
only a select few NFL reporters, it becomes very easy to cast
O’BRIEN: And you thought that was intentional? this as a he-said, she-said issue. It’s uncomfortable reading what
Watson is accused of doing, and while there’s a chance that he
HAYES: It was intentional. legally winds up in the clear, these allegations paint a very clear
and consistent picture of a man who thinks he can do whatever
O’BRIEN: So how did it end? he wants, with or without consent. That’s why it’s important to
put these accusations to light in a place where you would nor-
HAYES: At some point, he did ejaculate. That was mortifying mally be reading about Amari Cooper’s yards per catch on slant
and embarrassing and disgusting. routes and have them be specific rather than vague. (Cooper
—HBO Real Sports transcript, 5/25/2022 caught 13-of-23 slants for 143 yards, 6.2 yards per pass, OK?)
Assorted NFL media have an obligation to be deferential to
Watson, particularly if they are beholden to the league. He is the
“I do not have any regrets. Like I said before, the things that man who will be in our lives for much longer than his accus-
are off the field right now that came up caught me by surprise ers will be. He is the story, and we are the dutiful scribes who
because I never did anything that these people are alleging. I must report it. I use “we” here, but really, I have benefited more
know a lot of people say that I took the year off—I used that to from Watson than anybody else writing in this book. I normally
be able to clear my name in the previous two weeks, and just cover the Houston Texans, I am a fan of theirs, and some of the
continuing to fight that. I just continue to work and become most viral writing I have produced—the creation of whatever
a better person, a better player and just a better son, like my “fame” I have—is because of this man. It’s a troubling place
mom has always taught me.” to be. It’s hard to reconcile your role in all of this with what
—Deshaun Watson, Browns introductory presser you publicly were able to know and assume. What was once a
story about a young quarterback who was self-assured enough
to speak coverage details to reporters is now a story about an ac-
“In that piece, plaintiff was struck by the courage of the cused sexual harasser, who knew what, and when they knew it.1
victims willing to step forward and speak and was extremely The Browns put out a considered position upon acquir-
displeased by Watson and his legal team’s mistreatment and ing Watson that went something like this: We have done
revictimizations of the plaintiffs. … our homework. Andrew Berry said at Watson’s introductory

1
There’s no specific axe to grind here, as we assign team chapters before the season.
60 CLEVELAND BROWNS

presser that “It was through this time and through this work It’s hard to give much of a preview of the Browns season
and what we learned about Deshaun the person and what we because who they are changes so radically with or without
learned about the civil and criminal proceedings and obvi- the player they have tied themselves to. The rumor as we go
ously working through due process and legal process that got to press is that the league will suspend Watson for the entire
us comfortable with Deshaun the person.” The stance really season. With no definite announcement to go by, that’s what
becomes something more akin to “we heard what we wanted we’re going to assume for the projections in this book; Cleve-
to hear” when you take in the fact that the Browns didn’t make land’s forecast is based on Brissett as the starting quarterback
contact with any of Watson’s alleged victims. It is very easy in 2022. Whatever the league-mandated punishment is—be it
to see what you want to see when you are as starved as the nothing, eight games, a season, or whatever else is in play—
Cleveland Browns are for the single most valuable asset in has a greater impact on Cleveland’s 2022 record than any sort
team sports. And this chapter is not necessarily a critique of of turnover randomness or record in one-score games. The
the Browns, but of the NFL culture as a whole, because they quarterback we saw in 2020 is good enough that the Browns
were not the only team that would have taken this on. It could can get away with third-round pick David Bell learning on
have just as easily been Terry Fontenot or Gayle Benson or the job and hoping that Donovan Peoples-Jones can break out
David Tepper holding their shields up for Watson—if they had while Cooper and David Njoku are the main options. Pair-
been willing to guarantee $230 million, anyway. ing that quarterback with a running game that’s actually func-
The thing about people is: you have to treat them by what tional and play-action passes that are actually easy could be
their actions say they are. If you have ever tried to discern downright devastating. It’s not hard to understand why the
who someone is in their heart from a one-on-one sit-down, trade works in a pure football sense—this is the piece that
you may soon become aware that said person can wear a puts a very good team over the top.
mask whenever they want. Or, as Watson said in his open- Our defensive projection for the Browns takes a modest re-
ing presser, “what I want to do is be able to get back to that gression based in part on the Our defensive projection for the
brand or get back to that person that people knew I was before Browns takes a modest regression based in part on the Plexi-
all of these allegations.” That was the Freudian slip that went glass Principle. They were 11th on defense last year, but much
under the radar. There was no remorse here, the public per- worse in 2020 with only 14 games of Garrett (7.4% DVOA,
sona is managed optimally, and we’re sorry you saw what was 24th), and they were also bad in 2019 (6.6% DVOA, also
supposed to be safely behind closed doors and hushed away. 24th) when Garrett missed six games due to suspension. It’s
Whether it is legal or not doesn’t quite matter in the court not hard at all to talk yourself into this team building on 2021,
of public opinion. Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bau- though. Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are a fearsome duo of
er’s multiple-year suspension despite not being legally found edge rushers when healthy, and there are plenty of promising
guilty of anything is a new precedent that argues as much. The young defenders such as Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Grant
Browns have heard and lost many fans because of this trade, Delpit, Greg Newsome, and Greedy Williams that could take
NFL.com’s Marc Sessler perhaps the most prominent and major steps forward alongside the core of Garrett, Clowney,
public about it. In an entertainment business, does anybody John Johnson, and Denzel Ward. Their major issue is going to
want to see you play? That’s the question at hand here. be stopping the run, as they have only finished above 20th in
We would argue that the trade says a lot about how Cleve- run DVOA allowed once in the last three seasons.
land believed things would play out at the time, when Watson But on paper, this team has a franchise quarterback, it has a
was fresh off escaping criminal charges. The Browns likely franchise edge rusher, it has a franchise cornerback, and it has
are bracing for Watson to be suspended for at least some por- a good offensive line. It can run the ball. It can rush the passer.
tion of this season. They signed Jacoby Brissett and traded It has high-pedigree corners that can cover. The ceiling here is
Case Keenum in what is probably a slight downgrade but a as high as it is for any team in the NFL.
net cap savings, and Brissett figures to start while Watson is Since the beginning of recorded human history, there are
out. (Baker Mayfield was also eventually traded away, but tales of people trying and seeking a perfect and beautiful
there was no chance he would ever play in Cleveland again world. Humanity’s banishment from the Garden of Eden prob-
after Watson was acquired.) The Browns have a good enough ably is the central myth of Western culture. We’re all stuck
team to salt away six to 10 weeks without him by leaning on together in this condition of not having that perfect world, but
the running game and defense to make the playoffs. In fact, also in that desire of trying to reach for it.
that kind of game is what they have spent most of the last Sometimes, humans perform beautiful acts of courage to try
three years playing anyway. But they probably didn’t expect to create that world. And also sometimes, they perform acts
the Watson conversation to be going on up to our publishing that are deeply flawed to try to create that world.
deadline. For that matter, the NFL thought its investigation
into the matter was close to over in late May. It was not. Rivers McCown
 CLEVELAND BROWNS 61

2021 Browns by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at KC L 56% 29 33 457 397 -2 32% 60% 18% -10% Total DVOA 4.2% 14 -2.5% 11
2 HOU W 63% 31 21 355 302 0 3% 20% 20% 2% Unadjusted VOA 5.0% 16 -1.7% 11
3 CHI W 100% 26 6 418 47 0 97% 15% -64% 19% Weighted Trend -1.0% 15 -5.3% 11
4 at MIN W 62% 14 7 327 255 1 7% -24% -31% 0% Variance 7.7% 19 8.7% 25
5 at LAC L 60% 42 47 531 493 1 6% 39% 35% 2% Average Opponent 1.9% 30 0.2% 16
6 ARI L 1% 14 37 290 352 -3 -15% -11% 9% 5%
7 DEN W 88% 17 14 376 223 1 29% 31% 0% -2% Passing 6.8% 19 -0.8% 7
8 PIT L 25% 10 15 306 370 -1 -18% -2% 17% 1% Rushing 11.5% 1 -4.8% 23
9 at CIN W 100% 41 16 361 348 3 31% 10% -24% -3%
First Down -5.6% 22 -12.2% 3
10 at NE L 0% 7 45 217 452 -1 -105% -55% 53% 4%
Second Down 24.7% 2 -7.3% 8
11 DET W 95% 13 10 349 245 0 -1% 3% -14% -18%
Third Down -8.3% 22 22.6% 29
12 at BAL L 85% 10 16 262 303 2 7% -25% -42% -10%
13 BYE First Half 1.9% 13 -10.5% 6
14 BAL W 47% 24 22 290 389 1 2% 13% 0% -11% Second Half 6.9% 13 5.4% 22
15 LV L 48% 14 16 236 328 2 2% 7% 10% 5%
16 at GB L 8% 22 24 408 311 -4 -7% -3% 2% -1% Red Zone 2.8% 14 5.3% 23
17 at PIT L 63% 14 26 232 299 -1 -7% -28% -22% -2% Late and Close 20.1% 6 -1.0% 13
18 CIN W 97% 21 16 376 182 -2 42% 24% -29% -11%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 0-16 3.3 3.1 234 410 -28 -28.7% 32 -20.1% 32 3.4% 20 -5.1% 27 19.9 7 35.9 16 24.9 32 24.5 32 24.1 32
2018 7-8-1 7.1 7.5 359 392 +7 -3.3% 19 -0.7% 17 -1.6% 13 -4.2% 30 9.1 1 38.8 22 25.6 30 24.9 31 25.4 27
2019 6-10 6.4 6.1 335 393 -8 -10.6% 24 -4.8% 20 6.6% 24 0.8% 15 15.4 4 41.4 23 26.3 22 25.4 30 25.0 32
2020 11-5 7.7 7.7 408 419 +5 -5.7% 18 5.4% 9 7.4% 25 -3.7% 27 31.4 11 58.3 27 25.8 26 27.1 4 25.4 26
2021 8-9 7.9 9.6 349 371 -3 4.8% 13 4.2% 14 -2.5% 11 -1.9% 25 50.8 22 35.1 14 26.3 20 25.5 30 25.1 29

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

CLE Offense CLE Offense vs. Opponents CLE Defense CLE Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 44% 5.3 9.4% 31% Base 39% 6.3 14.4% 56% Base 25% 4.4 -10.7% 11 61% 5.4 -1.3%
12 20% 5.1 -1.3% 42% Nickel 47% 5.5 11.3% 39% Nickel 62% 5.2 -0.4% 12 19% 4.8 -9.2%
13 17% 7.3 21.4% 62% Dime+ 12% 4.9 -26.3% 7% Dime+ 12% 7.7 13.4% 21 7% 4.6 -18.1%
21 11% 6.3 21.5% 41% Goal Line 0% 0.8 51.9% 25% Goal Line 1% 3.3 -22.3% 20 3% 6.8 23.7%
22 3% 7.5 42.3% 71% Big 2% 1.6 -24.8% 71% 10 3% 7.3 65.9%
22 3% 4.3 13.3%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 42% 10 Form: Single Back 91% 3 Rush 3 3.6% 22 4 DB 24% 16 Play Action 26% 19
Runs, first down 52% 9 Form: Empty Back 4% 32 Rush 4 70.8% 15 5 DB 58% 20 Offensive Motion 43% 17
Runs, second-long 33% 9 Form: Multi Back 5% 24 Rush 5 21.2% 12 6+ DB 18% 12 Avg Box (Off) 6.69 3
Runs, power sit. 58% 15 Pers: 3+ WR 61% 22 Rush 6+ 4.4% 14 Man Coverage 43% 1 Avg Box (Def) 6.02 31
Runs, behind 2H 30% 12 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 36% 6 Edge Rusher Sacks 40.3% 26 CB by Sides 94% 2 Offensive Pace 32.29 25
Pass, ahead 2H 42% 27 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 27 Interior DL Sacks 38.9% 7 S/CB Cover Ratio 23% 23 Defensive Pace 30.89 14
Run-Pass Options 6% 22 Shotgun/Pistol 59% 25 Second Level Sacks 20.8% 11 DB Blitz 4% 30 Go for it on 4th 1.03 15
62 CLEVELAND BROWNS

In 2019 and 2020, Baker Mayfield had been the best quarterback in the league when opponents blitzed a defensive back. In
2021, he was the worst, with a horrendous -108.2% DVOA and 4.4 yards per play. It’s a small sample size, just 29 plays—only
Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes faced defensive back blitzes less frequently—but Mayfield took six sacks with two fumbles
and an interception when opponents blitzed a defensive back. 🏈 Cleveland led the NFL with 58.8% DVOA on passes at or
behind the line of scrimmage (7.8 yards per pass), but 25th at 39.7% DVOA on passes beyond the line of scrimmage (7.5 yards
per pass). No other offense in the league was more efficient throwing behind the line of scrimmage compared to throwing past
it. 🏈 The Browns had the league’s biggest advantage in yards per pass when using play-action. They averaged 8.7 yards on
play-action passes (25.6% DVOA) but just 5.0 yards per pass on other pass plays (-1.2% DVOA). 🏈 Cleveland was second
in the NFL in max protect blocking on 13.7% of pass plays, defined as seven or more blockers with at least two more blockers
than pass-rushers. 🏈 The Browns were the only team in the NFL to use three tight ends more than 10% of the time. They
had an excellent 7.3 yards per play with 21.4% DVOA from 13 personnel. 🏈 Although the Cleveland defense allowed a
league-average 5.2 average yards after the catch, they were pretty good with -0.3 YAC allowed vs. expectation. 🏈 If we
remove muffed punts and kickoffs, the Browns had the worst fumble recovery rate in the entire league at 35%. They recovered
only five of 17 fumbles on defense.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
B.Mayfield* 94 -8.0% 459 2731 5.9 5.5 61.0% 17 13 J.Landry* 18 -10.1% 87 52 570 11.0 5.3 2 60%
C.Keenum* 84 5.8% 77 433 5.6 6.5 65.3% 3 1 D.Peoples-Jones 122 13.1% 58 34 597 17.6 4.3 3 59%
N.Mullens* 29 3.9% 29 147 5.1 3.6 69.0% 1 0 R.Higgins* -16 -16.9% 47 24 275 11.5 1.7 1 51%
J.Brissett -195 -22.9% 243 1141 4.7 3.6 63.2% 5 4 O.Beckham* -26 -22.8% 34 17 232 13.6 2.8 0 50%
A.Schwartz -3 -14.4% 23 10 135 13.5 1.0 1 43%
A.Cooper 179 8.0% 104 68 865 12.7 3.4 8 65%
Rushing J.Grant 3 -10.5% 17 11 132 12.0 9.4 2 60%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc A.Hooper* -3 -7.9% 61 38 345 9.1 4.9 3 62%
N.Chubb 182 10.8% 228 1259 5.5 8 2 51% D.Njoku 71 12.8% 53 36 475 13.2 6.9 4 68%
D.Johnson 142 27.8% 100 534 5.3 3 0 55% H.Bryant 54 19.6% 28 21 233 11.1 3.8 3 75%
K.Hunt 72 13.5% 78 386 4.9 5 0 51% K.Hunt 27 2.8% 28 22 174 7.6 7.6 0 81%
B.Mayfield* 2 -11.0% 29 142 4.9 1 1 - N.Chubb 59 25.4% 25 20 174 8.7 9.2 1 80%
C.Keenum* 11 7.8% 8 26 3.3 0 0 - D.Johnson -10 -21.2% 25 19 137 7.2 7.3 0 76%
D.Felton -12 -54.1% 7 24 3.4 0 0 29% D.Felton 80 48.9% 21 18 181 10.1 11.2 2 86%
J.Landry* 29 11.7% 6 34 5.7 2 1 -
A.Schwartz 19 11.5% 6 39 6.5 0 0 -
J.Brissett 12 -2.6% 18 71 3.9 1 0 -
J.Grant 13 3.3% 5 33 6.6 0 0 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Joel Bitonio LG 31 17/17 1107 4 2.0 11 3 Blake Hance RT/G 26 17/8 644 3 4.0 23 5
Wyatt Teller RG 28 17/17 1107 9 2.0 12 9 Jack Conklin RT 28 7/7 361 3 2.0 4 0
JC Tretter* C 31 16/16 1039 4 0.5 5 7 James Hudson RT 23 12/4 303 3 3.5 7 2
Jedrick Wills LT 23 13/13 763 4 5.5 18 4 Ethan Pocic C 27 13/10 601 1 2.0 4 7

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.85 4.46 10 53% 29 18% 14 1.34 5 1.17 2 8.9% 10 41 7.2% 18 28.1% 7 11.6% 7 26
2020 4.91 4.79 6 56% 28 18% 24 1.45 1 1.10 4 10.3% 18 26 6.5% 16 24.8% 16 9.9% 6 27
2021 5.29 4.85 1 74% 7 15% 4 1.60 1 1.17 3 7.0% 2 49 8.7% 30 24.5% 10 14.2% 18 24
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.54 (1) Left Tackle: 5.45 (2) Mid/Guard: 4.24 (17) Right Tackle: 5.20 (1) Right End: 4.87 (10)

Two years into his career, Jedrick Wills has been more stable than star. The third-year left tackle has yet to play a full NFL
season, and he developed a penchant for false starts last year with eight in 13 starts. Still, steady is a fair return for the 10th
overall pick, and Wills should be locked in at the position again this year. 🏈 Guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller were a
devastating combination for opposing defenses again in 2021. Teller is a beast in the run blocking game and on the D&D circuit,
 CLEVELAND BROWNS 63

where a May charity event raised $20,000 on Twitch for ending childhood poverty. Fullback Johnny Stanton and Myles Garrett
joined Teller in a campaign where Teller’s half-elf moon cleric apparently had a familiar named “Beans.” Yes, we typed that
into a football book. Bitonio had perhaps the best season of his career as a run-blocker, blowing just three total blocks in 442
run-blocking attempts. Bitonio’s three-year extension kicks in next season and his cap number will escalate to nearly $15 mil-
lion. 🏈 The release of NFLPA president JC Tretter clears a way to a starting role for backup Nick Harris. Harris has only a
small sample size of snaps but played well in his one start last season. The Browns also added Ethan Pocic (ex-Seahawks) and
seventh-rounder Dawson Deaton (Texas Tech) as potential competition at the position, but they do not have the same amount of
“____ is ready for a larger role” stories written about them as Harris does, if you catch our drift. 🏈 Coming off a torn patel-
lar tendon, stalwart run-blocker Jack Conklin will be someone to monitor in camp. He restructured his contract this offseason
and will be a free agent in 2023. Chris Hubbard, who has been more iffy than good in his four years in Cleveland, looks like
the main depth behind Conklin if recovery is slow.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Malik Jackson* 32 DT 16 647 29 3.6% 85 24 6 5 21 76% 22 2.3 32 0.5 6 13 4
Malik McDowell* 26 DT 15 646 34 4.6% 69 26 8 8 27 74% 31 2.7 59 3.0 3 11 0
Jordan Elliott 25 DT 16 464 27 3.4% 89 16 3 4 22 55% 92 3.9 97 0.5 3 7 0
Sheldon Day 28 DT 7 234 23 6.6% 25 15 3 0 16 56% 88 3.5 92 1.0 1 3 2
Taven Bryan 26 DT 15 299 15 1.9% -- 12 6 1 9 89% -- 1.6 -- 2.0 6 8 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Myles Garrett 27 DE 17 865 53 6.3% 28 36 24 0 32 47% 96 2.4 38 16.0 20 41 3
Jadeveon Clowney 29 DE 14 677 39 5.6% 44 32 18 7 24 75% 33 1.7 13 9.0 10 31 2
Takkarist McKinley* 27 DE 11 319 17 3.1% 92 15 6 1 11 100% 1 2.3 31 2.5 6 13 0
Ifeadi Odenigbo* 28 DE 9 163 11 2.5% -- 7 0 3 11 64% -- 3.6 -- 0.0 3 4 0
Stephen Weatherly 28 DE 15 344 22 2.7% -- 17 8 0 18 72% -- 2.5 -- 2.5 4 11 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Anthony Walker 27 MLB 13 701 115 17.8% 10 58 13 13 68 53% 57 4.1 54 1.0 0 3 19 42% 56 7.7 59 2 0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah 23 OLB 14 598 78 11.2% 50 43 10 12 49 55% 53 3.7 35 1.5 1 3 21 71% 2 3.5 2 4 0
Malcolm Smith* 33 OLB 15 424 55 7.4% 78 35 13 7 29 62% 24 3.0 12 0.0 0 0 19 47% 41 6.8 42 5 2
Sione Takitaki 27 OLB 15 285 36 4.8% -- 20 7 2 24 58% -- 3.0 -- 0.0 2 5 10 70% -- 3.7 -- 0 0
Mack Wilson* 24 OLB 14 194 33 4.7% -- 16 1 3 26 58% -- 3.7 -- 0.0 0 0 6 67% -- 4.7 -- 0 0
Jacob Phillips 23 MLB 4 123 20 10.0% 60 14 5 4 11 45% 75 4.2 59 1.0 0 1 5 80% -- 2.2 -- 3 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.96 4.62 26 76% 30 18% 19 1.38 30 1.13 30 8.9% 30 38 7.0% 18 32.2% 9 13.0% 24
2020 4.08 4.61 23 66% 14 13% 26 1.19 15 0.33 2 9.4% 28 38 6.1% 19 23.9% 21 13.1% 17
2021 4.37 4.20 14 72% 25 13% 27 1.10 9 0.72 21 9.7% 30 43 6.9% 13 23.4% 28 15.9% 11
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.08 (27) Left Tackle: 3.84 (11) Mid/Guard: 4.12 (14) Right Tackle: 4.55 (24) Right End: 4.43 (18)

A study by Brandon Thorn’s newsletter Trench Warfare had Myles Garrett with eight high-quality sacks in the NFL in 2021.
That tied him with Nick Bosa and Chandler Jones behind only Robert Quinn. Jadeveon Clowney, who had five high-quality
sacks of his own per this study, returns as the opposite bookend. The Browns added some reinforcements for third down with
a small-stakes trade for New England’s Chase Winovich, who surprisingly saw a big drop in playing time last year. It’s a qual-
ity group of pass-rushers. Third-rounder Alex Wright (UAB), who has a ton of arm length and racked up a seven-sack junior
season, will likely have time to grow into a role. 🏈 The main problem on the defensive line is run downs. 2021 fourth-
rounder Tommy Togiai wasn’t ready for prime time last season, and 2020 third-rounder Jordan Elliott also had some tough
games against the run as the Lions and Ravens bulldozed the interior line in Weeks 11 and 12. Cleveland added former Jaguars
first-round pick Taven Bryan in free agency, but Bryan has been a sporadic producer at best. Cleveland lacks anybody who
could be considered a true nose tackle, preferring speed over size. Fourth-rounder Perrion Winfrey (Oklahoma) has the power
to functionally act as one at some point, but expectations should probably be low for him in his rookie season. Winfrey spent his
64 CLEVELAND BROWNS

May taking down former Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch on Twitter, saying that he finally was with “a defensive
coordinator that knows what he’s talking about” in Cleveland. 🏈 The Browns spent Day 2 picks on linebackers in 2019,
2020, and 2021. So, naturally, their most consistent linebacker last season was free-agent signee Anthony Walker. Walker is at
his best in coverage and is a heady blitzer, but he’s up-and-down at the point of attack. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah figures to
be the lead linebacker this season after some big flashes last year. A broken tackle rate of 14% needs some improvement, but
he was more instinctive in the run game than Walker was. Sione Takitaki was almost entirely a run-defense player in 2021, but
he struggled in comparison to how he had played in 2020. Jacob Phillips has played just 367 snaps in two seasons and enters
training camp a clear No. 4 on the depth chart.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
John Johnson 27 FS 15 905 64 8.6% 59 26 11 5 29 34% 39 7.7 48 24 7.3% 51 16.8 54% 39 6.8 32 5 3
Denzel Ward 25 CB 15 856 53 7.1% 62 26 11 8 7 29% 62 9.4 73 64 20.6% 34 9.3 59% 18 5.6 14 10 3
Greg Newsome 22 CB 12 691 46 7.7% 55 20 7 8 6 50% 22 5.2 28 51 20.4% 37 11.5 49% 61 6.9 35 9 0
Grant Delpit 24 SS 15 599 64 8.6% -- 28 11 10 36 53% -- 5.7 -- 17 7.8% -- 9.1 53% -- 9.6 -- 3 1
Greedy Williams 25 CB 16 590 50 6.3% 72 21 5 11 10 40% 46 10.8 78 55 25.7% 5 14.3 55% 42 6.8 32 10 2
Ronnie Harrison 25 SS 12 584 61 10.2% 41 30 14 6 34 56% 9 5.1 12 18 8.5% 36 7.0 67% 8 5.4 11 3 1
Troy Hill* 31 CB 12 533 50 8.4% -- 32 16 7 22 77% -- 3.1 -- 33 17.1% -- 10.8 48% -- 9.4 -- 1 0
M.J. Stewart* 27 CB 13 327 42 6.5% -- 19 9 5 13 23% -- 7.0 -- 24 20.2% -- 3.8 67% -- 3.9 -- 4 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 17 10.2% 25 14.7% 25 -5.0% 13 10.4% 25 1.0% 10 -6.4% 9 13.4% 25
2020 25 -18.8% 4 0.8% 18 20.0% 30 -7.4% 9 -0.6% 19 18.3% 28 7.6% 23
2021 7 -8.3% 10 -8.7% 13 -1.3% 16 -20.9% 5 10.1% 19 -18.0% 7 -16.7% 5

Denzel Ward became the highest-paid corner in NFL history when he signed a five-year, $100.5-million extension in April.
Ward has been remarkably consistent so far, with eight or more pass breakups, two or more picks, and one injury that knocks
him out for a bit per season. He hasn’t really given “best cornerback in the NFL” performance so far, but prices will only contin-
ue to climb on the cornerback market and the Browns were likely smart to strike early. We’re still waiting for the season where
Ward puts it all together and wins an All-Pro spot. 🏈 The best word to describe Greedy Williams last season is “mercurial.”
SIS’ charting has him allowing just 32 yards on eight targets against Justin Herbert’s Chargers, then coming back the very next
week to allow 79 yards and a touchdown (mostly to A.J. Green) against the Cardinals. If he can get more consistent, this unit
will take a major step forward. 🏈 Greg Newsome’s rookie season was mostly good. He allowed 30-plus-yard completions
in each of Week 6, 7, 8, and 9, but didn’t allow another one all season. Newsome was the backup slot last year with Troy Hill
mainly playing the position, but he figures to shift inside more this year and was getting first-team reps there in OTAs. New-
some told the Varsity House podcast that the Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham situation was “distracting” this offseason, noting
Beckham was “probably the best teammate,” while also saying “the crazy thing, Baker was a great teammate, too. It was like
weird, though. I’d like hang out with him. He’d take us to dinner after games.” We’re also confused. 🏈 2022 third-rounder
Martin Emerson is probably part of the reason that Newsome was playing more inside. Emerson has outside corner speed and
size. Mississippi State’s opponents just stopped throwing at him in 2021 as he picked up only three passes defensed all season.
He’ll likely be pushing Williams for reps outside. 🏈 John Johnson became primarily a deep safety with the Browns; he still
played well but wasn’t quite as impactful without the box reps he used to get with the Rams. Both Grant Delpit and Ronnie
Harrison are more box types, with Harrison starting for most of last year. Harrison’s the more consistent player and the better
tackler—something the unit really needed last year—but it would be a better sign for the health of the team if Delpit beat him
out this year because Delpit has star upside.
 CLEVELAND BROWNS 65

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.8% 15 0.7 16 6.2 2 -1.4 20 1.4 17 -3.0 23 3.5 11
2020 -3.7% 27 -5.8 25 -6.8 29 -0.4 15 -1.7 20 -3.6 25 -3.0 18
2021 -1.9% 25 -5.6 24 5.8 5 -1.1 15 -2.9 24 -6.3 31 -13.4 30

Cleveland invested a fourth-round pick on LSU kicker Cade York, who already has to his credit a game-winning 57-yard
kick through swirling fog at Florida. York hit 33 of 39 field goals over his sophomore and junior seasons before declaring early,
and 15 of his 54 career field goals came from beyond 50 yards. 🏈 The Browns let Jamie Gillan walk this offseason and
will have a competition between ex-Packers punter Corey Bojorquez and former Panthers punter Joseph Charlton, who also
punted for Jacksonville briefly last season. Bojorquez, who had positive gross punt value in each of the last two seasons, should
be the favorite. 🏈 Demetric Felton handled punt returns last season but will cede those duties to one of the better returners
in the NFL, Jakeem Grant. Between Miami and Chicago, Grant led all punt returners with 9.1 points of value over expecta-
tion last season. Grant is not as strong on kick returns but will probably take over that job as well from Anthony Schwartz,
though Schwartz and Felton may be in the mix. 🏈 Cleveland had the worst luck in the league on opposing field goals, with
opponents scoring 13.5 points more than expected. Browns opponents did not outright miss a single field goal in 2021. The
Browns blocked a Week 2 attempt by Joey Slye of Houston, but every other field goal attempt against Cleveland went through
the uprights.
 Dallas Cowboys
2021 record: 12-5 Total DVOA: 30.9% (1) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.8 wins On the Clock (0-5): 6%
Pythagorean Wins: 12.5 (3) Offense: 13.6% (6) Postseason Odds: 63.7% Mediocrity (6-8): 24%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.0 (23) Defense: -15.2% (2) Super Bowl Odds: 11.5% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: -2.2% (26) Special Teams: 2.1% (6) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -2.4% (30) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 27%

2021: He said, “It’s all in your head, but keep an ear to the grapevine.”

2022: ’Cause I filled my bed with my regrets but it hasn’t killed me yet.

O ne of the most revealing things said by Jerry Jones in the

past few years came from his interview with Peter King’s
Football Morning in America in May. He told a story about
use that unicorn in exactly the perfect way—a massive credit
to him—by letting Parsons set the edge in some alignments
and play off-ball in others. Parsons was able to help cover up
coverage of the Cowboys: the hole in the pass rush left when DeMarcus Lawrence was
out of the lineup. The NFL’s fabled hybrid player—the guy
“A few years after I bought the team, I’m out in Los who is good at so many things that he makes it difficult to ac-
Angeles having lunch with David Hill and Ed Goren of count for him—is written about and envisioned more than he
FOX. At that time, there were a lot of negative headlines is actualized. Parsons immediately burst onto the scene as the
about the Cowboys. Michael Irvin was in the headlines. guy who could destroy your pass protection, set the edge on
People are saying, ‘The owner’s an outlaw!’ And so that run downs, play as a solid coverage linebacker, and blitz you
day I told them, ‘I’m tightening the lid on this franchise. up the middle with devastating effectiveness. He nearly won
We’re gonna get control of this team.’ Defensive Player of the Year as a rookie, let alone the obvious
“And David Hill jumped up. He said, “NO! Do not cakewalk to Defensive Rookie of the Year.
touch my ‘Boys! They are television gold! Don’t even The offense didn’t set the fantasy world on fire like the
think about it!’ 2020 Dak Prescott Cowboys, who hit 400 total passing yards
“The foibles, the soap opera, the issues. They create in- in three of four full games and were well on pace to get
terest. Add in the Senior Bowl, the combine, free agency, there again in a fourth before the quarterback’s ankle frac-
the draft, training camp, we always got something going. ture against the Giants. But they also were never able to get
People follow us year ‘round. The owner every now and CeeDee Lamb into the slot like they did that season, and the
then gets in the paper. It just adds to the interest, all of it. health they were blessed with in 2020 was replaced with Mi-
People love that.” chael Gallup playing just nine games and getting out-snapped
by Cedrick Wilson. Prescott struggled with a calf injury that
When you endure the Cowboys through this point of view, limited his mobility and dealt with a shoulder injury that kept
where they are nearly as much an institution of public inter- him out of most of the preseason. The much-maligned Ezekiel
est as a football team trying to break an almost-30-year title Elliott was revealed to have been playing through a torn PCL
drought, what they do makes more sense. It isn’t just about all year. And while it’s easy to understand in hindsight how it
being good, it’s about capturing your emotional reaction and might have been smarter to sit him down at some point, he dis-
using it to sustain interest. Maybe it’s interest in a good way, played a level of grit that we don’t often lionize and account
or maybe you’re just waiting for the Acme anvil to fall on for with his public image by playing through it. It’s all just
Mike McCarthy’s head yet again. Either way, it’s interest. And contract discourse and jokes—the kind of content that gets
the Cowboys are a perfect encapsulation of this double-sided Jones’ team more attention. The Cowboys maintained a top-
interest because we could write two entirely different chapters six offensive DVOA through a hail of Elliott struggle-carries
about them depending on how we weigh out our interpretation despite breaking in tight end Dalton Schultz as a key contribu-
of the foibles. tor and dealing with the now-yearly Tyron Smith injury crisis.
Let’s start with DVOA’s positive interpretation of what’s And the two coordinators who get most of the credit for
going on here. The Cowboys keyed a major defensive turn- this? They got head-coaching interviews. Quinn interviewed
around under new coordinator Dan Quinn last season. He with the Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, Giants, and Broncos. Kel-
grew beyond the stagnant Cover-3 playcaller we had seen at len Moore interviewed with the Dolphins, Broncos, Vikings,
times in Atlanta, playing more quarters and playing off his and Jaguars. The fact that the Cowboys got an early exit from
bread-and-butter coverages in a way that made the Cowboys the playoffs meant their stability was more poachable than it is
defense tougher to key in on. for other teams, in theory. And what happened? Both coaches
Quinn happened to be gifted a unicorn after the Cowboys stayed. The Cowboys also gave a big extension to talent eval-
drafted Micah Parsons in the first round. He also happened to uator Will McClay. For a situation that is a hot seat unto itself,
66
 DALLAS COWBOYS 67

2021 DAL DVOA by Week

2022 Cowboys Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 TB 7 DET 13 IND
2 CIN 8 CHI 14 HOU 40%
3 at NYG (Mon.) 9 BYE 15 at JAX 20%
4 WAS 10 at GB 16 PHI (Sat.)
0%
5 at LAR 11 at MIN 17 at TEN (Thu.)
6 at PHI 12 NYG (Thu.) 18 at WAS -20%

-40%

-60%

that’s an impressive amount of stability at the core manage- -80%

ment positions and at quarterback. -100%

What happened to Dallas that enabled the 49ers to beat them

in the playoffs? Well, Dallas mostly struggled on offense. Their
defense finished the game with a -26.3% DVOA rating, and
they added 13.8% DVOA on special teams, handily beating the just 0.21. The Cowboys are likely going to have fewer penal-
49ers there. But Elliott and Tony Pollard got almost no trac- ties in 2022. No team has repeated as the league leader in pen-
tion on the ground while Prescott took five sacks and threw 20 alties since the 2013-2014 Seahawks (Table 1), and the league
incompletions under duress. The Cowboys were unable to find leaders going back to 2011 were flagged the next season an
Lamb, who had just one catch on five targets, and instead force- average of 29 fewer times.
fed Wilson, who led the team with 10 targets. Dallas also dialed Complicating the situation is the Cowboys’ first-round pick,
up 14 penalties for 89 yards. A holding penalty near the end of offensive lineman Tyler Smith, who was widely regarded by
the second quarter forced the Cowboys into a first-and-20 with draftniks as an unrefined and unfinished product. He commit-
1:15 left that they would never dig out of. A pair of false starts ted 16 penalties in 12 starts at Tulsa last season. In his in-
turned a third-and-4 into third-and-14 to start the third quar- troductory presser, McCarthy swept aside those concerns by
ter. An illegal block by Wilson on the next drive turned a first- saying, “Some of his mistakes are of an aggressive nature. …
and-10 into a first-and-15, and Prescott was picked two plays Those are the ones ... you’d rather be dealing with combative
later. The Cowboys finished with -26.6% offensive DVOA in one [sic] that he can learn from.” Smith will likely start at
the loss, the worst of the wild-card round besides Jalen Hurts’ left guard while being groomed as [Tyron] Smith’s long-term
adventure against Tampa Bay. replacement at left tackle. This isn’t to say that Smith can’t be
Let’s speak more on those penalties. Dallas led the NFL worth that draft slot, but the penalty-prone team picking up a
with 127 accepted penalties in 2021, which is a big part of penalty-prone player sure feels like an own goal.
the reason why we were higher on them than most other out- And boy, were the Cowboys into own goals this offseason.
side statistical metrics. Dallas finished the regular season No. The most controversial move the Cowboys made was trading
1 in DVOA, in part because most penalties are not included in Amari Cooper. It was questionable when it happened and became
DVOA. We think that’s actually a positive for the Cowboys in hilarious as the rest of the offseason unfolded. Dallas balked at
2022, because there isn’t much precedent for teams to repeat paying the wideout $20 million with a $22-million cap hit, ship-
a season like this. The year-to-year correlation in penalties is ping him to the Browns for a fifth-round pick before free agency
started. Leadership defended this move by saying that it was a
Table 1. NFL Leaders in tough decision. “But when you talk about competition, there is
also competition and a challenge in the financial arena. You have
Penalties, 2011-2021 to make business decisions that are in line with the dynamics of
your cap,” McCarthy said after the initial wave of free agency.
Year Team Penalties Penalties Y+1 Rank Y+1 But as the offseason continued on and we watched the Davante
2011 OAK 163 109 8 Adams trade, Tyreek Hill trade, A.J. Brown trade, and several
2012 STL 129 123 2 deals with other less impressive wideouts get done, it’s hard to
2013 SEA 128 130 1 feel like the Cowboys didn’t make a major misread of the market
2014 SEA 130 117 9 for Cooper. If they had publicly presented the idea that they were
2015 BUF/TB 143 112/102 9/21 keeping him instead of keeping things quiet, they could have eas-
2016 OAK 147 114 9 ily gotten double the draft capital from a receiver-hungry team.
2017 SEA 148 111 16 Or they could have just kept a star wideout on a good offense and
2018 KC 137 107 18 not rocked the boat.
2019 TB 134 84 22 The other major bungle of the 2022 offseason was los-
2020 ARI 113 114 5 ing Randy Gregory over what amounted to Gregory and his
2021 DAL 127 -- -- agent disagreeing with the club over non-standard contract
AVERAGE 137.5 111.1 10.9 language. It was a done deal, then it wasn’t, as the Broncos
68 DALLAS COWBOYS

swooped in and paid more money to get the job done. This And that’s kind of where the Cowboys are at as an organiza-
might not have been the end of the world for the Cowboys tion right now. They’re an eternal content machine designed to
objectively—Gregory is coming off a career-year and got a amplify everything, good or bad, into the stratosphere. There
five-year, $70-million offer. He has never had more than six are some incredibly talented people who have done amaz-
sacks in a season before. But their defensive line depth will ing things for the franchise. There’s luck involved, and it’s
be tested in bigger roles this year. Losing Gregory also likely nice that Prescott fell into their laps over Connor Cook. But
contributed to the team taking edge rusher Sam Williams in Quinn and Moore deserve a lot of credit for what they have
the second round despite a troubling past that includes a high done to develop their respective units. Our projection system
school expulsion due to an off-campus incident with a knife based on raw numbers looks at what has been done here and
and a 2020 suspension from Ole Miss after being arrested for is wildly impressed. McClay’s scouting staff has drafted Par-
sexual battery. The Cowboys never answered losing either sons, Lamb, and Trevon Diggs since 2020—with no premium
Cooper or Gregory with a major big-ticket item, they just sort picks! So there’s a benefit of the doubt that should really be
of stockpiled depth pieces such as Dante Fowler and James given here on the results.
Washington. It’s not an indefensible strategy, but it’s some- It’s just that with all the upheaval, all the smoke, and all the
thing pretty old school in today’s NFL, where teams are gen- content this team creates, it’s still a little hard to take them
erally trying to increase their star count at all costs. seriously. Prescott has yet to escape from all the slander the
Then there’s the elephant in the room—the idea that former Cowboys created around him in his first few seasons to be-
Saints coach and current FOX analyst Sean Payton will even- come recognized as an obvious franchise quarterback talent.
tually take over as Cowboys head coach is already accepted McCarthy is still the guy who went on a coordinated media
as establishment conventional wisdom. It’s one of the worst- visit to PFF headquarters and pretended he cared about ana-
kept secrets in the NFL that Payton and Jones have a good rela- lytics to get another job, then publicly admitted he lied about
tionship after Payton came up as a Dallas assistant. Mike Mc- analyzing all the Cowboys plays before he was hired. Elliott’s
Carthy might have retained his job after last season’s playoff contract is rightfully perceived as a major burden on their
meltdown—he did not help his cause by hilariously punting on hopes of competing even though the player has done nothing
fourth-and-2 in the third quarter down 23-7, nor with the funny- to earn any scorn.
looking if somewhat defensible plan to have Prescott spike the The Dallas Cowboys are a complicated mix of all the good
ball after running up the middle of the field with 14 seconds left. stability many NFL heads lionize—draft and develop, pay
Jones wouldn’t specifically speak to McCarthy’s job status af- your best, make tough decisions—and also a chronic insta-
ter the season but instead answered with the roundabout “I got bility that they are unable to reign in. They are content to be
everyone under contract that I want under contract.” Jerry’s son Content. They may very well win the Super Bowl this season.
Stephen was more affirmative about keeping McCarthy, with a We certainly think they have an excellent chance of doing it
definitive “very confident” statement, but that doesn’t necessar- on paper, and if Lamb can step into Cooper’s role as the No.
ily block the idea of Payton to the Cowboys at all. There’s no 1 wideout seamlessly, they absolutely have every key player
extension for McCarthy, and there’s lukewarm support at best, you would want as a major contender. Depth is a bit of a ques-
and, well, he’s already a lightning rod anyway. He’s regarded tion mark, but it is that way for every NFL team to an extent.
as someone who is slow to understand football analytics and Dallas has an excellent chance of riding one of the easiest
wasted years of prime Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He ranked schedules in the NFL to another division title and maybe even
17th in EdjSports’ CCI rating, which measures offensive play a bye week.
calling on fourth downs. He’s probably not as bad as the repu- But the Cowboys are kind of like watching an established
tation that precedes him, but in an NFL that is rapidly being stand-up comic try out risky new material. They know enough
dragged towards aggression and raw numbers, he remains thor- about the rules to get themselves into trouble. They try to dig
oughly a coach of his earlier times. He’s still the kind of coach out of something controversial on stage, “we’ll do it live”-
who will run on second-and-10, down two in the fourth quarter style, almost to try to feel alive more than anything else. Every
of the season opener, and settle for the field goal to give Tom year is a new chance to bomb, but it doesn’t matter as long as
Brady a chance to beat him. But say what you will about Mc- everyone keeps paying to see them.
Carthy—and many, many people have—it seems a little mean
to let him twist in the wind like this. Rivers McCown
 DALLAS COWBOYS 69

2021 Cowboys by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at TB L 19% 29 31 451 431 3 19% 33% -3% -18% Total DVOA 13.6% 6 -15.2% 2
2 at LAC W 91% 20 17 419 408 1 31% 22% -4% 5% Unadjusted VOA 15.0% 6 -16.6% 2
3 PHI W 99% 41 21 380 367 1 44% 17% -24% 3% Weighted Trend 11.3% 7 -19.1% 1
4 CAR W 100% 36 28 433 379 2 44% 48% 6% 2% Variance 9.1% 23 5.5% 14
5 NYG W 98% 44 20 515 367 0 14% 11% 3% 6% Average Opponent 0.7% 23 -1.3% 23
6 at NE W 77% 35 29 567 335 0 17% 24% -1% -9%
7 BYE Passing 32.0% 6 -20.5% 2
8 at MIN W 82% 20 16 419 278 -2 14% -11% -34% -8% Rushing -4.0% 13 -7.0% 16
9 DEN L 13% 16 30 290 407 -2 -39% -35% 5% 1%
First Down 6.8% 11 -10.5% 6
10 ATL W 100% 43 3 431 214 2 79% 10% -66% 3%
Second Down 21.7% 5 -14.9% 5
11 at KC L 2% 9 19 276 370 -1 -31% -53% -16% 6%
Third Down 13.9% 8 -23.8% 2
12 LV L 67% 33 36 437 509 0 19% 20% 21% 20%
13 at NO W 99% 27 17 377 405 3 62% 21% -34% 6% First Half 16.0% 6 -10.4% 9
14 at WAS W 99% 27 20 323 224 2 37% -21% -54% 4% Second Half 10.1% 10 -19.3% 1
15 at NYG W 100% 21 6 328 302 3 39% 7% -23% 8%
16 WAS W 100% 56 14 497 257 2 86% 36% -44% 6% Red Zone 6.8% 12 1.9% 18
17 ARI L 49% 22 25 301 399 -1 14% 13% -4% -3% Late and Close 27.2% 4 -9.4% 7
18 at PHI W 100% 51 26 475 315 1 96% 74% -18% 4%
19 SF L 22% 17 23 307 341 0 14% -27% -26% 14%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 8.6 9.4 354 332 -1 9.3% 11 6.6% 10 1.9% 16 4.6% 7 8.0 2 26.4 10 26.8 18 25.1 30 25.9 15
2018 10-6 8.4 7.3 339 324 +2 -2.3% 18 -6.3% 24 -6.0% 9 -2.1% 23 42.0 20 33.2 16 25.5 31 24.7 32 25.8 14
2019 8-8 10.9 11.4 434 321 -1 19.9% 6 24.5% 2 0.7% 16 -3.9% 30 11.3 2 24.5 7 27.0 13 26.2 18 26.9 3
2020 6-10 6.2 6.5 395 473 -3 -11.1% 23 -8.5% 24 6.0% 23 3.3% 7 75.6 29 42.9 18 25.2 31 26.3 15 26.2 11
2021 12-5 12.5 13.3 530 358 +14 30.9% 1 13.6% 6 -15.2% 2 2.1% 6 19.4 4 50.5 25 26.2 22 25.6 27 26.4 10

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

DAL Offense DAL Offense vs. Opponents DAL Defense DAL Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 64% 6.4 19.8% 26% Base 22% 5.4 9.4% 58% Base 1% 8.4 75.5% 11 58% 6.0 -13.6%
12 22% 6.1 14.5% 58% Nickel 61% 6.4 23.1% 37% Nickel 78% 5.6 -12.3% 12 22% 5.3 -17.4%
612 3% 6.4 49.7% 79% Dime+ 16% 6.9 13.3% 11% Dime+ 20% 5.9 -38.6% 21 5% 4.3 -29.6%
611 3% 5.2 -5.4% 64% Goal Line 1% 1.5 -19.7% 64% Goal Line 1% 0.6 -1.5% 01 4% 6.7 -21.6%
21 2% 5.3 33.8% 38% Big 1% 5.0 -16.0% 44% 22 3% 5.4 -18.6%
13 3% 7.7 13.4%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 38% 18 Form: Single Back 82% 17 Rush 3 3.8% 21 4 DB 1% 32 Play Action 26% 20
Runs, first down 48% 17 Form: Empty Back 10% 11 Rush 4 69.6% 18 5 DB 78% 2 Offensive Motion 45% 14
Runs, second-long 25% 22 Form: Multi Back 8% 15 Rush 5 23.9% 7 6+ DB 20% 10 Avg Box (Off) 6.44 21
Runs, power sit. 52% 24 Pers: 3+ WR 66% 14 Rush 6+ 2.7% 26 Man Coverage 38% 3 Avg Box (Def) 6.67 5
Runs, behind 2H 20% 32 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 33% 13 Edge Rusher Sacks 45.1% 24 CB by Sides 71% 19 Offensive Pace 28.38 1
Pass, ahead 2H 48% 14 Pers: 6+ OL 9% 4 Interior DL Sacks 12.2% 29 S/CB Cover Ratio 22% 25 Defensive Pace 28.32 1
Run-Pass Options 10% 16 Shotgun/Pistol 59% 23 Second Level Sacks 42.7% 1 DB Blitz 6% 27 Go for it on 4th 1.37 7
70 DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas had the league’s second-largest gap in DVOA between running back carries out of shotgun (5.1 yards, 16.1% DVOA)
and running back carries with the quarterback under center (4.5 yards, -4.3% DVOA). 🏈 The Cowboys were surprisingly
strong running out of second-and-long, with 7.6 yards per carry and 35.4% DVOA. 🏈 On the other hand, the Cowboys were
miserable in third-and-long, ranking fourth in DVOA on third or fourth down with 1 to 6 yards to go but 27th in DVOA with 7
or more yards to go. 🏈 Dallas ranked eighth in the league in yards per drive but 20th in three-and-outs per drive. 🏈 42%
of sacks for the Dallas offense were “non-pressure” sacks such as “coverage sack” or “failed scramble.” That’s a real change
from 2020, when the Cowboys were near the bottom of the league with only 13% non-pressure sacks. 🏈 Dallas led the
league in situation-neutral pace, although that pace was nearly a second per play slower than the year before (when they ranked
second). Dallas went particularly fast in close games, averaging one play every 25.5 seconds when the score gap was less than
a touchdown. Meanwhile, Dallas opponents had the fastest situation-neutral pace by more than 1.5 seconds. That’s probably
more of a quirky result than anything particularly meaningful. 🏈 The Dallas defense dramatically increased its usage of man
coverage from 28% (19th) in 2020 to 38% (third) in 2021. The results with man and zone coverage were essentially the same,
separated by just 3.2% DVOA. 🏈 Yes, Trevon Diggs appears to have scared opposing quarterbacks away. Dallas opponents
threw a league-low 17% of passes to their No. 1 receivers and a league-leading 24% of passes to “other receivers.” 🏈 Thanks
to turnovers, the Cowboys led the NFL with -31.3% DVOA when blitzing even though they allowed 6.5 yards per play, higher
than the NFL average of 6.3 yards per play. 🏈 The Cowboys had the best DVOA in the NFL against short passes (up to 15
air yards) but were only 22nd against deep passes. 🏈 The Cowboys led the NFL with 6.33 average yards allowed after the
catch, although they were second behind Baltimore in YAC allowed vs. expectation.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
D.Prescott 1379 21.2% 626 4305 6.9 4.9 68.8% 37 10 C.Lamb 205 7.9% 120 79 1102 13.9 5.6 6 66%
C.Rush 91 18.2% 50 403 8.1 6.9 63.8% 3 1 A.Cooper* 179 8.0% 104 68 865 12.7 3.4 8 65%
M.Gallup 50 -3.2% 62 35 445 12.7 3.5 2 56%
C.Wilson* 154 18.6% 61 45 602 13.4 5.8 6 74%
N.Brown -6 -16.0% 25 16 184 11.5 4.3 0 64%
Rushing M.Turner* 63 37.6% 16 12 149 12.4 6.2 3 75%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc J.Washington -2 -13.1% 44 24 285 11.9 3.3 2 55%
E.Elliott 138 4.7% 237 1002 4.2 10 1 53% D.Schultz 190 20.3% 104 78 808 10.4 4.4 8 75%
T.Pollard 145 17.9% 130 719 5.5 2 0 55% B.Jarwin* 5 -2.9% 17 11 96 8.7 3.5 2 65%
D.Prescott -97 -63.6% 35 145 4.1 1 7 - S.McKeon -4 -16.3% 6 4 27 6.8 2.5 1 67%
C.Clement* 5 -4.8% 33 140 4.2 0 0 45% E.Elliott 8 -11.8% 66 47 287 6.0 6.3 2 72%
C.Lamb 39 25.8% 9 76 8.4 0 0 - T.Pollard 63 10.4% 46 39 337 8.6 8.7 0 85%
J.Hardy 13 76.3% 4 29 7.3 1 0 75% C.Clement* 0 -14.1% 7 6 29 4.8 2.8 1 86%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Tyler Biadasz C 25 17/17 1205 10 1.0 8 9 Tyron Smith LT 32 11/11 740 8 1.0 11 5
Zack Martin RG 32 16/16 1104 2 0.5 6 4 La'el Collins* RT 29 12/10 672 8 2.0 11 3
Connor Williams* LG 25 17/14 950 15 2.0 11 3 Connor McGovern LG 25 16/6 500 2 1.0 5 6
Terence Steele RT/LT 25 16/13 913 8 2.0 20 9

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.68 4.91 2 76% 2 13% 1 1.42 1 0.72 18 7.9% 4 23 4.3% 2 29.6% 15 9.4% 2 25
2020 4.09 4.48 12 71% 11 18% 23 1.12 23 0.54 27 9.5% 15 44 6.1% 14 24.5% 14 13.3% 19 24
2021 4.68 4.80 2 69% 14 13% 2 1.25 8 0.74 10 9.5% 11 33 5.6% 9 22.1% 6 10.8% 6 30
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.03 (22) Left Tackle: 3.84 (24) Mid/Guard: 4.95 (1) Right Tackle: 4.44 (11) Right End: 6.14 (3)

Tyron Smith bounced back from a tough 2020 with a still-stellar 2.2% blown block rate and allowed just one sack all season.
Left tackles can hold on to their value well into their thirties, and that’s clearly what Dallas is banking on with Smith under
contract through 2023. A restructure could make sense before or after this season, as Smith is going to carry a $17.6-million cap
hit in 2023. Smith missed some early OTAs with back tightness. 🏈 Speaking of aging stalwarts, Zack Martin at right guard
continues to be one of the league’s best as he enters his age-32 season. Like Smith, he has missed more time of late, but he blew
 DALLAS COWBOYS 71

just 0.9% of his blocks in 2021 and allowed only half a sack. He has one more year on his contract than Smith does but has a
similarly onerous 2023 cap figure of $19.9 million that makes him a restructure candidate. 🏈 Tyler Smith’s main competi-
tion at left guard will come from 2019 third-rounder Connor McGovern on the last year of his rookie deal. McGovern started
five games last year and blew six run blocks in just 145 rushing snaps. He has been better than that in the past, but there’s clearly
a reason the Cowboys felt this was a spot to upgrade after Connor Williams left in free agency. 🏈 Tyler Biadasz wound up
as the starting center for Dallas last season and performed fairly well for a fourth-round pick, but he committed six false starts
and 10 total penalties as he and Dak Prescott had some communication issues early on. Six of his 10 penalties came in the first
seven games of the season. 🏈 Terence Steele was much improved from his first season as an emergency starter and started
13 games between the La’el Collins and Smith injuries, lowering his blown block rate from 5.6% to 4.1% in pass protection.
He’ll be a restricted free agent after the season and could play his way into a decent contract if he takes another step forward this
season at right tackle. If not, 2022 fifth-round pick Matt Waletzko (North Dakota) and 2021 fourth-rounder Josh Ball (Marshall)
could get playing time. They might get playing time anyway given how often Smith has been hurt in recent seasons. Tyler Smith
is also reportedly getting some reps at left tackle, so him moving outside could be an option in the event of an injury.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Osa Odighizuwa 24 DT 16 615 36 4.5% 72 24 10 2 29 66% 64 2.7 60 2.0 9 14 0
Carlos Watkins 29 DT 15 438 33 4.4% 74 25 7 2 27 74% 31 2.7 61 1.0 1 1 0
Justin Hamilton* 29 DT 9 249 10 2.2% 100 8 2 2 9 89% 3 1.8 14 0.0 2 4 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Tarell Basham 28 DE 17 625 39 4.6% 62 22 8 3 28 57% 85 3.7 87 3.5 8 21 0
Dorance Armstrong 25 DE 13 506 37 5.7% 39 23 5 2 27 56% 88 4.0 89 5.0 6 25 1
Randy Gregory* 30 DE 12 436 20 3.3% 85 15 9 4 12 67% 70 2.7 55 6.0 11 24 1
Chauncey Golston 24 DE 15 414 33 4.4% 65 24 8 4 28 71% 46 2.6 47 1.0 2 11 1
Demarcus Lawrence 30 DE 7 271 26 7.4% 13 21 11 1 13 69% 62 2.8 63 3.0 4 17 4
Dante Fowler 28 OLB 14 509 37 4.9% 57 26 16 10 23 70% 60 2.0 26 4.5 4 19 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Micah Parsons 23 MLB 16 903 87 10.9% 54 61 35 6 48 69% 9 2.8 6 13.0 18 38 25 72% 1 3.2 1 3 0
Leighton Vander Esch 26 OLB 17 663 79 9.3% 68 45 5 9 53 64% 19 4.0 51 1.0 0 4 22 64% 12 5.5 21 2 1
Keanu Neal* 27 MLB 14 580 70 10.0% 62 30 8 16 45 49% 67 4.6 76 1.0 2 2 25 48% 39 7.7 56 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.05 4.05 8 66% 20 21% 10 1.16 15 0.78 19 16.9% 6 39 6.8% 19 33.9% 6 19.8% 1
2020 4.87 4.98 30 65% 13 13% 28 1.41 29 0.83 23 9.1% 29 31 5.2% 25 27.0% 10 12.2% 22
2021 4.36 4.17 13 66% 11 16% 21 1.23 19 0.67 18 14.5% 12 41 6.9% 12 28.0% 8 16.5% 9
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.15 (16) Left Tackle: 3.46 (5) Mid/Guard: 3.80 (6) Right Tackle: 4.95 (31) Right End: 5.83 (27)

DeMarcus Lawrence remains an absolute force. The problem is that he played in only seven games last year and his stubborn-
ness regarding renegotiation really forced the Cowboys down the offseason path they chose with Amari Cooper. Lawrence’s
$26-million cap hit dominates the Cowboys’ budget the way he dominates on the field. The sack count understates Lawrence’s
impact in terms of hurries and his solid run defense. He cares about getting that corrected: “Become the sack leader again,”
Lawrence said at OTAs about his goals this year, “I let a rookie show me up last year.” 🏈 Sam Williams went in the second
round because of the off-field aspects we talked about in the main chapter. He has a very solid profile at edge and was Sack-
SEER’s favorite sleeper in the draft because of his production in the SEC for Mississippi. He’ll likely get broken in behind
Dorance Armstrong, who signed a two-year, $12-million contract this offseason. Armstrong’s a solid tackler but hasn’t been
more than a complementary pass-rusher so far. 🏈 Nose tackle Trysten Hill has been a bust as the 58th overall pick from
2019. He hasn’t played more than 250 snaps in any year and his run defense has been lacking. Veteran Carlos Watkins will
likely grab a share of early-down snaps. Fifth-rounder John Ridgeway (Arkansas) could also make a play for a rotation role.
🏈 Not a bust? 2021 third-rounder Osa Odighizuwa, who immediately brought 14 hurries and nine tackles for loss from the
inside. He’s disruptive and should continue to out-snap Neville Gallimore. 🏈 If we’re really picking nits on Parsons, he
72 DALLAS COWBOYS

could take a step forward in pass coverage. He allowed only 3.2 yards per target, but it was on a low volume of attempts and he
did get pulled out of position on occasion. (Though it’s funny that the most viral piece of evidence against Parsons being bad at
coverage was a misdiagnosed clip of Parsons playing a ROBOT technique in Week 1, where people were convinced that he was
confused. Twitter: Where context goes to die.) 🏈 Although he played all 17 games last season, Leighton Vander Esch hasn’t
been the same player since a scary neck injury that cost him parts of 2019 and 2020. He’s more of a stopgap than a building
block at this point, hence the one-year deal he signed for only $2 million. 🏈 There has been some noise about 2021 fourth-
round pick Jabril Cox, who tore his ACL on special teams in Week 8 last season, as a potential nickel linebacker. He picked off
nine passes and broke up 26 more at North Dakota State and LSU. 🏈 Dallas invested heavily late in the draft at linebacker,
taking LSU’s Damone Clark in the fifth round and Oklahoma State’s Devin Harper in the sixth. Clark underwent spinal fusion
surgery after a combine MRI revealed a herniated disc—he had been projected to be a Day 2 pick before that as the SEC’s tackle
leader. Harper ran a 4.49s 40-yard dash at his pro day and has the arm length to dream of him as a rangy coverage linebacker.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Anthony Brown 29 CB 16 1047 88 11.0% 11 41 15 9 12 25% 66 7.8 65 103 25.3% 7 13.6 65% 6 6.8 33 17 3
Trevon Diggs 24 CB 16 1014 73 9.1% 34 34 14 10 12 50% 22 6.1 39 82 20.8% 32 13.6 52% 49 11.2 80 21 11
Jayron Kearse 28 SS 16 1013 108 13.5% 10 49 23 5 50 46% 22 6.0 21 45 11.4% 16 10.4 58% 32 6.3 28 10 2
Damontae Kazee* 29 FS 17 902 55 6.5% 73 14 7 12 26 27% 54 12.0 74 12 3.4% 75 13.8 67% 9 6.3 26 4 2
Jourdan Lewis 27 CB 16 801 72 9.0% 38 37 20 7 11 45% 38 6.4 42 63 20.2% 38 8.7 57% 27 7.3 45 11 3
Malik Hooker 26 FS 15 446 46 6.1% -- 16 7 5 28 39% -- 7.0 -- 12 6.9% -- 9.5 58% -- 5.4 -- 2 1
Donovan Wilson 27 SS 9 336 30 6.7% -- 12 5 3 20 45% -- 6.3 -- 8 6.1% -- 9.9 75% -- 3.1 -- 1 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 23 4.8% 20 16.0% 26 5.7% 21 -10.1% 13 22.7% 30 8.3% 23 -1.5% 20
2020 21 13.5% 25 38.8% 32 5.8% 18 19.7% 30 19.8% 30 21.8% 29 -15.9% 6
2021 2 -40.0% 1 -17.2% 5 -2.5% 14 -7.1% 17 -26.1% 1 -3.4% 16 -25.4% 1

Welcome to the Dallas Cowboys chapter, where you can have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate barely mentioned
until the unit comments because of how much airspace this team takes up. Trevon Diggs probably shouldn’t have been a seri-
ous candidate because he was a gambler—he allowed 11.2 yards per target, a marked increase from 8.6 as a rookie. But when
you pick off 11 passes and break up 10 more, you do get to claim a ton of value to your team in a league where turnovers are
everything. 🏈 Anthony Brown had a better year on paper when you look at 6.8 yards per target and a 46.6% completion
rate allowed, but this is a case where 103 total targets tells you everything you need to know about how opponents felt about the
5-foot-11 veteran. He’s a poor tackler and will give up volume outside. 🏈 Jourdan Lewis had really nice statistics in his first
two seasons, but the past two have been poor as he has been pushed into more snaps and pigeonholed into a slot role. Sports Info
Solutions lists him with a deserved catch rate of at least 83.3% in each of the last three seasons, including a career-high 88.0%
last year which ranked 10th among cornerbacks with at least 400 snaps. But with Kelvin Joseph’s future in some question after
he was reportedly the passenger in a hit-and-run shooting this offseason, there doesn’t figure to be a real challenger for the job.
🏈 Nahshon Wright, who played in just four games last season as a third-round rookie, figures to be a primary depth piece at
corner. The Cowboys added fifth-rounder DaRon Bland (Fresno State) in the fifth round. Bland had played his previous three
seasons at Sacramento State and figures to play outside if he develops. 🏈 Jayron Kearse was a sneakily valuable piece for
the Cowboys, by far their best tackler as a box safety and someone who could play forward, back, or in the slot. They re-signed
him to a two-year, $10-million contract this offseason. Dallas allowed last year’s other main safety, Damontae Kazee, to depart.
They’ll expand the role of former Colts first-round bust Malik Hooker, who is somehow just 26. Hooker has played mostly as
a deep safety and could be spelled some by Donovan Wilson, last year’s third safety. Last year, Dallas was fourth in the gap
between where the two safeties made their average play, suggesting clearly defined roles for the strong safety (Kearse) and free
safety (Kazee, now Hooker/Wilson).
 DALLAS COWBOYS 73

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -3.9% 30 1.7 14 -4.9 28 -7.1 32 -7.6 26 -1.8 21 2.6 12
2020 3.3% 7 3.7 13 4.3 9 4.4 7 3.0 11 1.2 13 4.3 11
2021 2.1% 6 -2.9 20 -0.3 19 5.9 6 11.9 1 -3.4 27 14.2 3

After last year’s adventures with Greg Zuerlein, the Cowboys decided this offseason to make UDFA kicker Jonathan Garibay
their main guy. (“I think the most important part of a kicker is consistency,” Jones said after Zuerlein hooked one in a three-
point loss to Arizona, “and it’s not consistently missing.”) Garibay hit 15-of-16 field goals for Texas Tech last year, including a
62-yarder over Iowa State at the buzzer. If he proves untrustworthy, this will be a prime spot for kicker workouts after games.
🏈 Waived by the Texans last offseason, punter Bryan Anger was a second-team All-Pro and received a new three-year con-
tract worth $9 million. He’s still not Russell Wilson, and nobody will ever forget that. 🏈 Tony Pollard has returned kicks
the last three years, but the Cowboys might need someone to step up on punt returns with CeeDee Lamb being entrusted with
the No. 1 wideout spot and Cedrick Wilson gone to Miami. Nahshon Wright returned one last season, and Pollard would be
another logical candidate. Free-agent signing James Washington has no NFL or college experience at punt returns, and third-
rounder Jalen Tolbert also didn’t do it in college for South Alabama. 🏈 Veteran cornerback C.J. Goodwin had 10 special
teams tackles, the only player in Dallas with more than five.
 Denver Broncos
2021 record: 7-10 Total DVOA: -1.4% (18) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.0 wins On the Clock (0-5): 10%
Pythagorean Wins: 8.9 (16) Offense: 5.5% (12) Postseason Odds: 48.7% Mediocrity (6-8): 33%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.3 (16) Defense: 3.0% (20) Super Bowl Odds: 6.8% Playoff Contender (9-11): 40%
Average Opponent: -2.8% (29) Special Teams: -3.9% (30) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.1% (18) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 17%

2021: Born to be bland.

2022: Let’s get dange-Russ.

I s Russ Cooked?
The Denver Broncos’ present and future hinge on that
simple question. If the Broncos traded two first-round picks,
belt snapped during the 2015 Super Bowl run.
That frees us to ask other questions about the 2022 Broncos,
like…
two-second rounders, tight end Noah Fant, defensive tackle
Shelby Harris, some loose change, old magazines, pocket lint, Should Russ Cook?
and Drew Lock for the still-in-his-prime Russell Wilson, then The narrative around Wilson sounded more like a 1970s
they have launched themselves into a Super Bowl window, vigilante movie with each passing season in Seattle. [Deep,
albeit a narrow one. movie-trailer narrator voice]: Our hero once again goes it
If the Broncos mortgaged their future for the decline phase alone against both impossible odds and a system designed to
of a set-in-his-ways veteran, however, then look out below. keep him down. It’s Dange-Russ IX: Lethal Schottenheimer.
Wilson posted his lowest DVOA and DYAR since 2017 last Every year since about 2015, so the story goes, Wilson has
year. He posted a career low in passing yards and his lowest been persevering despite poorly designed offensive schemes,
touchdown total since 2013. Many of his other rate metrics a flimsy offensive line, and a shorthanded playmaker corps.
reached four-year lows in 2021. A midseason hand injury that Yet each year, the Seahawks either swapped out coordinators
forced him to miss three games and left him looking shaky (Darrell Bevell to Brian Schottenheimer to Shane Waldron),
upon his hurried return had a lot to do with the statistical drop- took steps to upgrade the offensive line (it has been a middle-
off. But Wilson is now 33 years old and no longer runs the of-the-pack unit since 2018), or added some playmakers (DK
way he used to, so we must at least entertain the possibility Metcalf, D’Wayne Eskridge, lots of running backs). No matter
that he peaked in the late-2010s. what the Seahawks tried to do, however, their offseason narra-
Wilson did rebound significantly late in the 2021 season. tive was always “Russ needs more weapons/more protection/
After averaging 6.3 yards per attempt, throwing just four more something.”
touchdowns, and enduring 13 sacks in 134 attempts in his first The Seahawks have certainly made plenty of missteps and
four games after the hand injury, Wilson averaged 7.6 yards taken lots of half-measures during their post-Super Bowl
per attempt, threw 11 touchdowns, and took just seven sacks years of sheepishly kinda-sorta rebuilding around Wilson. But
in his final five games (Table 1). The Seahawks posted posi- if Wilson really is the MVP-caliber quarterback and leader he
tive passing DVOA in each of those games. The level of com- appears and purports to be, shouldn’t he have made the play-
petition wasn’t spectacular (Texans-Bears-Lions-Cardinals, ers around him look better? Shouldn’t he have made some co-
with a loss to the Rams mixed in), but DVOA accounts for ordinator look like a genius, or Metcalf or Tyler Lockett into
that, and it’s not like we’re analyzing some unknown young- bigger stars? Perhaps Wilson’s habit of running around like
ster enjoying a late-season hot streak. a video game hero and trying to do everything himself went
from solution to problem over the late 2010s, enabled in part
Table 1. Russell Wilson by a chorus of fans and experts who keep cheering for Wilson
to approach every season as if he were John Wick.
by Week, 2021 Enter new Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who ar-
rives from Green Bay with two apparent superpowers: a) the
Weeks DVOA NetYP TD INT ability to install offensive schemes that mix high-percentage
Weeks 1-5 32.5% 8.00 10 1 passing with well-timed, high-efficiency deep shots; and more
Weeks 10-13 -28.4% 4.95 4 3 importantly b) the ability to get temperamental superstar quar-
Weeks 14-18 20.3% 6.86 11 2 terbacks to embrace those schemes.
Hackett is reportedly among the select company of humans
So Wilson’s rough 2021 season was likely the result of inju- that Aaron Rodgers likes and trusts, along with Joe Rogan,
ry. That’s a relief. The Broncos now have a bona-fide top-tier Jake Kumerow, Randall Cobb, and a few Ayn Rand novel
quarterback for the first time since Peyton Manning’s timing protagonists. If Hackett can convince someone as touchy as
74
 DENVER BRONCOS 75

2021 DEN DVOA by Week

2022 Broncos Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at SEA (Mon.) 7 NYJ 13 at BAL
2 HOU 8 at JAX (U.K.) 14 KC 40%
3 SF 9 BYE 15 ARI 20%
4 at LV 10 at TEN 16 at LAR (Xmas)
0%
5 IND (Thu.) 11 LV 17 at KC
6 at LAC (Mon.) 12 at CAR 18 LAC -20%

-40%

-60%

Rodgers to stay in the pocket and throw to the intended re- -80%

ceiver more often, he should have no problem reigning in any -100%

self-indulgent habits Wilson may have picked up over the last

few years.
Hackett was certainly saying all the right things in OTAs:
“We want to build this thing completely around him and make includes a vast bundle of tactics and concepts. But the point
sure that he’s comfortable and watch him come alive,” he said stands: Hackett arrives with an extensive palette of offensive
of Wilson. That’s both a logical coaching choice and a shrewd ideas and the clout to implement them. Rodgers toned down
bit of messaging, not just to Wilson, but to Broncos fans who his lone-wolf freelancer tendencies with the help of the LaF-
have spent too long watching offenses built around Case Kee- leur/Hackett tactics and returned to back-to-back MVP form.
num-types, as well as the “Let Russ Cook” contingent of the Wilson was more of a bombs-or-nuttin’ quarterback than ever
national talk-show circuit. last year after switching from Schottenheimer’s run-when-
they-are-expecting-it philosophy to Waldron’s work fast/punt
What Will Russ Cook? frequently system. Hackett’s Packers-like scheme has the
One tactical innovation Hackett is likely to import from potential to make Wilson more efficient without taking away
Green Bay to Denver is everyone’s favorite offensive fad of what makes him unique.
the late-2010s: the run-pass option.
The Packers dabbled in RPOs before Matt LaFleur and Do the Broncos Have the Right Ingredients?
Hackett arrived; Mike McCarthy’s offense consisted mostly Of course they do! Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy. Tim Pat-
of dabbles. LaFleur emphasized the RPO as a major compo- rick. Javonte Williams. Melvin Gordon. KJ Hamler. That tight
nent of the Packers’ quick play-action game. Aaron Rodgers end with the long name. An offensive line headlined by Gar-
attempted 50 RPO passes in 2019, 60 in 2020, and 63 in 2021. rett Bolles and Dalton Risner. And of course, that outstanding
The Packers also rushed 148 times on RPOs, per Sports Info 2015 defense, which has been frozen in amber since carrying
Solutions, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. While the Packers’ Peyton Manning to victory in Super Bowl 50 and has waited
efficiency rates on RPO runs or passes were below league av- half a decade for a quarterback to…
erage, the tactic remained a useful jab for setting up Rodgers’ Oh wait: that Super Bowl defense is long gone. What’s left
haymakers, as well as a way to give running backs opportu- now is barely a shadow of the Von Miller-led defenses that
nities against reduced defensive fronts. Wilson, by contrast, wandered the high prairie for years waiting for John Elway to
attempted just 13 RPO passes in 2021, 16 in 2020 and 14 in figure out that he needed to stop rummaging through discount
2019. bins for the next John Elway.
Pre-snap motion is another tactical wrinkle Hackett will The Broncos defense ranked third in the NFL with just 322
import to Denver. Wilson attempted just 109 passes on plays points allowed in 2021, so at first glance it still looks like an
with pre-snap motion in 2021, which ranked 29th in the NFL. elite unit. But there’s a major statistical distortion at work here.
Rodgers attempted 256 passes with pre-snap motion, which The Broncos fielded the fifth-slowest paced offense in the NFL,
ranked seventh. The Seahawks used pre-snap motion fre- averaging 29.45 seconds per play. Their offense averaged 6.41
quently when Schottenheimer was their offensive coordina- plays per drive (ninth most) and three minutes and eight sec-
tor—282 Wilson attempts in 2020—but Waldron scrapped onds per drive (fourth longest), but ended up punting 40.4%
much of the motion in an attempt to go up-tempo more often of the time (eighth most often). As a result, Broncos opponents
last year. started their average drive on the 26.0- yard line, the second-
Counting RPOs and examples of pre-snap motion is broad- worst field position in the NFL. And because their offense con-
brush analysis. There’s a chance that lots of RPO passes (and trolled the clock so deliberately, the Broncos only faced 162
runs) in statistical databases are actually just short play-action total opponent possessions, the lowest figure in the NFL.
passes (or handoffs with window dressing) since no one but To summarize: the Broncos offense was very good at slow-
the coaches and players really know if any given play is truly ly dripping down the field without necessarily scoring, result-
an “option.” Indeed, different stat services list wildly differ- ing in slow-paced games. Opponents that held leads over the
ent RPO totals for every team. Meanwhile, pre-snap motion Broncos never turned on the turbochargers because they had
76 DENVER BRONCOS

little to fear from the methodical Broncos offense (especially But it probably was not.
the pathetic Drew Lock-led late-season offense). Both factors It’s easy to lapse into nihilism when writing about the AFC.
suppressed yardage and scoring by Broncos opponents to a The Broncos added Russell Wilson! Yeah, but the Chargers
remarkable degree. The 2021 Broncos defense was actually a added Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson. Well, the Chargers look
below-average, high-variance unit capable of slowing down great then! Except that the Raiders added Davante Adams.
(if not quite stopping) the Chiefs and Bengals on its best days Well, that makes the Raiders contenders, right? Nope, because
but getting steamrolled by the Steelers, Eagles, or Raiders on the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, the Bengals fixed their
its worst. Denver finished 20th in the league in both yards al- offensive line, and the Bills are going to run away with every-
lowed per drive and defensive DVOA. thing. It’s like the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning heyday: every-
There’s talent scattered across the 2022 Broncos defense, one is playing for third place, so why bother?
but almost all of it comes with a disclaimer. Free-agent ar- NFL teams cannot spend years waiting around for a win-
rival Randy Gregory had the best season of his career for the dow of opportunity. As analysts, we cannot assume that every
Cowboys in 2021. That best season, however, consisted of six team will be full strength for 17 games, that everything will
sacks in 12 games for a 29-year-old edge rusher whose ca- go according to plan and that the AFC West will all bunch up
reer has been checkered by injuries, suspensions, and off-field between 8-9 and 10-7. There will be injuries, slumps, streaks,
concerns. Bradley Chubb, who looked like Miller’s heir ap- plans that go awry, upsets, missed field goals, failed fourth-
parent in 2018, recorded zero sacks in seven games last year, down conversions, and so on. Under the circumstances, ev-
missing much of the season with a knee injury. Patrick Surtain ery would-be contender should strive to maximize its ceiling.
II had some huge moments as a rookie (including two inter- That’s what the Broncos kept refusing to do when noodling
ceptions, one in the end zone and the other a tip-drill pick-six, with Keenum, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Drew Lock, and
in an upset of the Chargers) but remains a work in progress. yes, even Teddy Bridgewater: they built teams with wild card-
D.J. Jones, another newcomer at defensive tackle, is a hefty caliber upside which fell short with the first setback.
run-stuffer who will ideally max out at about 30 snaps per The Broncos now have legitimate Super Bowl upside: a
game. Justin Simmons remains a top-tier starter, and fellow 49% chance to make the playoffs according to our (somewhat
safety Kareem Jackson a very good one, but the Broncos lost conservative) projections and a +850 moneyline to win the
nearly as much talent as they gained this offseason, including AFC as of June at the sportsbooks (better odds than the Ben-
Harris and slot corner Bryce Callahan. gals, Titans, and Ravens, among others). Those figures would
In terms of actual established performance levels—as op- be closer to 35% and +5000 with Lock battling some rookie at
posed to potential, reputation, name recognition and “if ev- quarterback, and not much higher with another year of Teddy
erything breaks right” reasoning—the Broncos will not field Tapwater.
a playoff-caliber defense in 2022. That means Wilson and the With players such as Sutton and the star offensive linemen
offense will be forced to carry the Broncos to victory. Here entering their primes, a short-window surge makes far more
again, we enter the realm of speculation about just how great sense for the Broncos than the alternative. Also, the Broncos
Wilson’s supporting cast really is. Sutton is the offensive ver- window doesn’t have to be all that short. Sutton and Patrick
sion of Chubb: we saw excellence a few years ago and have were locked into contract extensions before receiver inflation
been waiting to see more than glimpses of it again ever since. kicked in. Bolles is under contract for a few years, Risner is
Jeudy and Hamler are also on the “due for a breakout” list for a likely top-priority extension, and youngsters such as Jeudy
the second straight year. Fant caught 68 passes last year; it’s and Williams are still on their rookie deals. The 2023 cap is
not clear if Albert Okwuegbunam (there, I typed it) is ready already largely spoken for, but there’s $100 million in 2024
for a similar target share. bucks available to keep the Broncos nucleus intact. Veterans
Yes, all of the Broncos playmakers should be due for a may choose to stick around instead of testing the market with
bump as they go from years of paint-by-numbers game plans Wilson around. And Wilson is still only 33 years old: circling
and remediated quarterback play to Wilson. DVOA projects a back to where we began, if he’s not cooked now, he probably
huge offensive improvement. It just arrives a little too late for won’t be cooked for a long while.
the Broncos defense. It takes unrealistically optimistic projec- The Broncos may not be outstanding in 2022, but they will
tions on both sides of the ball to push the Broncos toward the be interesting for the first time since 2016. They will be on
front of the unforgiving AFC West, let alone the conference. prime-time television five times, starting with Wilson’s sea-
son-opening return to Seattle, and they will be must-see TV.
Was the Wilson Trade Half-Baked? They’ll play in London. They’ll score more, punt less, gener-
The Broncos finally found their franchise quarterback, ate more fantasy stats, and give their fans more to talk about
about three years too late. They acquired him at a steep cost in December than mock drafts.
that will hamstring efforts to make further improvements. And if the season comes down to Wilson versus Patrick Ma-
The franchise that spent a half-decade procrastinating about homes and Justin Herbert in Weeks 17 and 18 in a battle of
rebuilding now hopes to fast-forward back to contention, as final-drive, last-guy-with-the-ball-wins heroics, well, we all
if the 2016-through-2021 seasons never really happened. But know what Wilson is capable of serving up.
our projections trap them in a logjam in the brutal AFC West.
Maybe trading for Wilson was a bad idea. Mike Tanier
 DENVER BRONCOS 77

2021 Broncos by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at NYG W 79% 27 13 420 314 0 -10% 29% 38% 0% Total DVOA 5.5% 12 3.0% 20
2 at JAX W 100% 23 13 398 189 2 35% 27% -24% -15% Unadjusted VOA 8.0% 12 3.1% 19
3 NYJ W 100% 26 0 343 162 1 37% -17% -51% 3% Weighted Trend 5.4% 11 0.3% 21
4 BAL L 0% 7 23 254 406 -1 -76% -43% 23% -10% Variance 5.9% 10 8.4% 23
5 at PIT L 12% 19 27 374 391 0 -24% 3% 31% 5% Average Opponent 3.8% 32 0.3% 15
6 LV L 0% 24 34 421 426 -4 -48% 23% 65% -5%
7 at CLE L 12% 14 17 223 376 -1 -14% 13% 28% 1% Passing 23.4% 11 8.6% 20
8 WAS W 93% 17 10 273 342 1 12% 13% -3% -4% Rushing -6.1% 16 -5.2% 21
9 at DAL W 87% 30 16 407 290 2 25% 17% -28% -20%
First Down -0.4% 17 1.8% 17
10 PHI L 4% 13 30 308 386 0 -26% -13% 7% -7%
Second Down 1.8% 15 -4.7% 12
11 BYE
Third Down 22.3% 5 15.3% 26
12 LAC W 83% 28 13 302 357 1 27% 6% -21% 0%
13 at KC L 19% 9 22 404 267 -2 13% -7% -22% -2% First Half 0.7% 14 1.7% 19
14 DET W 100% 38 10 358 316 2 60% 50% -5% 5% Second Half 10.5% 9 4.5% 19
15 CIN L 39% 10 15 292 249 -1 17% 4% -14% -2%
16 at LV L 19% 13 17 158 342 3 -29% -36% -7% 1% Red Zone -6.0% 20 2.3% 19
17 at LAC L 0% 13 34 319 341 -1 -53% -19% 15% -20% Late and Close 5.3% 14 8.1% 24
18 KC L 55% 24 28 364 390 -1 17% 20% 5% 2%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 5-11 5.4 5.5 289 382 -17 -22.4% 29 -18.7% 31 -3.8% 11 -7.4% 30 26.4 10 38.1 19 27.1 14 26.7 12 25.0 30
2018 6-10 7.4 8.6 329 349 +7 5.5% 13 0.8% 15 -8.9% 6 -4.2% 31 47.5 24 26.0 11 26.6 18 26.9 7 25.4 28
2019 7-9 6.9 6.4 282 316 +1 -10.4% 23 -11.3% 26 -2.8% 13 -1.9% 24 52.0 25 48.3 27 25.8 30 26.9 7 25.1 31
2020 5-11 4.9 5.5 323 446 -16 -21.9% 29 -20.0% 30 -0.2% 13 -2.1% 24 50.2 23 58.2 26 25.3 30 26.8 8 25.4 27
2021 7-10 8.9 7.8 335 322 +1 -1.4% 18 5.5% 12 3.0% 20 -3.9% 30 42.0 14 76.1 30 26.1 23 26.9 9 25.6 24

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

DEN Offense DEN Offense vs. Opponents DEN Defense DEN Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 61% 5.9 14.3% 31% Base 24% 5.4 2.4% 60% Base 24% 5.2 -0.8% 11 67% 5.9 9.2%
12 26% 5.3 5.9% 53% Nickel 57% 5.4 5.0% 43% Nickel 58% 5.3 1.8% 12 16% 4.6 -21.3%
13 7% 5.2 2.3% 66% Dime+ 17% 6.8 43.7% 7% Dime+ 18% 6.7 18.6% 21 4% 7.4 50.6%
22 3% 5.7 6.9% 76% Goal Line 1% 0.5 19.9% 90% Goal Line 0% -1.0 -23.5% 22 4% 4.0 4.8%
21 2% 3.6 -35.4% 48% 13 3% 4.1 -20.4%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 42% 10 Form: Single Back 91% 3 Rush 3 3.6% 22 4 DB 24% 16 Play Action 26% 19
Runs, first down 52% 9 Form: Empty Back 4% 32 Rush 4 70.8% 15 5 DB 58% 20 Offensive Motion 43% 17
Runs, second-long 33% 9 Form: Multi Back 5% 24 Rush 5 21.2% 12 6+ DB 18% 12 Avg Box (Off) 6.69 3
Runs, power sit. 58% 15 Pers: 3+ WR 61% 22 Rush 6+ 4.4% 14 Man Coverage 43% 1 Avg Box (Def) 6.02 31
Runs, behind 2H 30% 12 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 36% 6 Edge Rusher Sacks 40.3% 26 CB by Sides 94% 2 Offensive Pace 32.29 25
Pass, ahead 2H 42% 27 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 27 Interior DL Sacks 38.9% 7 S/CB Cover Ratio 23% 23 Defensive Pace 30.89 14
Run-Pass Options 6% 22 Shotgun/Pistol 59% 25 Second Level Sacks 20.8% 11 DB Blitz 4% 30 Go for it on 4th 1.03 15
78 DENVER BRONCOS

Denver had a significant reverse split on play-action passes. The Broncos averaged just 6.0 yards per play with -5.8% when
using a play fake but averaged 6.5 yards per play with 35.8% DVOA on passes without a play fake. 🏈 The Broncos ranked
fourth in the league passing in the red zone but only 30th when running in the red zone. 🏈 Denver ranked eighth passing
on first down but just 22nd running the ball. 🏈 Another reason the Broncos were better on offense than the standard stats
show: they lost seven out of 10 fumbles. 🏈 The Denver offense ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate on first and second down
(8.8%) but improved to fourth on third and fourth down (4.8%). 🏈 The Broncos defense allowed a league-high 11.0 average
yards after the catch on passes behind or at the line of scrimmage, but a slightly above-average 3.9 YAC on passes beyond the
line of scrimmage. 🏈 Denver’s use of man coverage increased from 36% (11th) in 2020 to 43% (first) in 2021. The Broncos
had almost exactly the same results in man and zone coverage, with a difference of just 0.1 yards and 5.0% DVOA. 🏈 Vic
Fangio was much more aggressive on fourth downs than in past seasons, climbing from 32nd to 15th in Aggressiveness Index
last season.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Bridgewater* 601 9.7% 457 2831 6.2 4.9 67.1% 18 7 C.Sutton 131 3.7% 98 58 776 13.4 2.3 2 59%
D.Lock* -28 -15.0% 119 735 6.2 5.2 60.9% 2 2 T.Patrick 190 15.9% 85 53 734 13.8 3.8 5 62%
R.Wilson 532 7.5% 433 2847 6.6 5.3 64.8% 25 6 J.Jeudy 53 0.0% 56 38 467 12.3 4.7 0 68%
J.Johnson 157 16.6% 88 615 7.0 5.0 67.1% 5 2 K.Hinton 38 7.0% 23 15 175 11.7 3.8 1 65%
KJ Hamler -5 -18.8% 10 5 74 14.8 3.2 0 50%
N.Fant* 52 2.3% 90 68 670 9.9 4.7 4 76%
Rushing A.Okwuegbunam 16 -1.0% 40 33 330 10.0 7.4 2 83%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc E.Saubert* -14 -23.8% 12 8 47 5.9 3.6 1 67%
M.Gordon 74 -0.1% 203 918 4.5 8 3 55% J.Williams 44 3.3% 53 43 316 7.3 8.0 3 81%
J.Williams 2 -8.3% 203 903 4.4 4 2 48% M.Gordon 29 0.4% 38 28 213 7.6 6.6 2 74%
T.Bridgewater* 32 8.8% 24 112 4.7 2 1 -
D.Lock* -3 -17.2% 10 53 5.3 2 1 -
M.Boone 13 90.7% 4 35 8.8 0 0 50%
R.Wilson -7 -15.9% 37 165 4.5 2 2 -
J.Johnson -40 -101.9% 8 25 3.1 0 2 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Lloyd Cushenberry C 25 16/16 1039 6 2.5 8 14 Netane Muti RG/LG 23 15/3 317 0 2.0 4 5
Garett Bolles LT 30 14/14 870 9 4.5 18 3 Cameron Fleming* RT 30 5/4 285 2 0.0 5 5
Dalton Risner LG 27 15/15 832 2 3.5 15 11 Calvin Anderson LT 26 11/3 172 0 0.0 5 1
Bobby Massie* RT 33 13/13 796 1 2.5 17 3 Billy Turner RT 31 13/13 810 4 1.0 10 7
Quinn Meinerz RG 24 15/9 623 2 2.5 7 8 Tom Compton RT 33 17/7 570 2 4.5 16 2
Graham Glasgow RG 30 7/7 384 2 2.5 8 3

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.24 4.45 11 69% 8 15% 3 1.17 17 0.61 23 8.5% 7 41 8.1% 25 32.2% 25 12.3% 9 29
2020 4.46 4.02 28 78% 3 21% 32 1.26 14 0.87 8 11.9% 25 32 6.8% 19 29.4% 24 12.8% 18 25
2021 4.51 4.29 18 71% 11 18% 19 1.37 3 0.83 6 13.1% 27 40 7.5% 21 27.5% 21 15.1% 23 23
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.29 (16) Left Tackle: 4.54 (13) Mid/Guard: 4.05 (21) Right Tackle: 4.83 (4) Right End: 4.31 (14)

Left tackle Garrett Bolles, left guard Dalton Risner, and three randos may represent the best offensive line Russell Wilson
has played behind since Russell Okung and Max Unger last played together on the Seahawks line in Super Bowl XLIX at the
end of the 2014 season. 🏈 Rando One will almost certainly be right tackle Billy Turner. Turner, like head coach Nathaniel
Hackett, was a member of Aaron Rodgers’ Really Short List of Acceptable Humans. Turner started at guard and right tackle for
the Broncos in 2018 and has developed into a capable, versatile starter in the years since. He can even fill in at left tackle, having
done so during various David Bakhtiari emergencies in Green Bay. 🏈 Rando Two will likely be Quinn Meinerz, who started
nine games as a third-round rookie out of Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater last season and produced his share of GIF-worthy
bulldozer blocks. Meinerz became a viral sensation before the 2021 draft by knocking over trees and using logs as barbells
 DENVER BRONCOS 79

during his backwoods backyard workouts. 🏈 Rando Three may be center Lloyd Cushenberry, who was a disaster as a
rookie starter in 2020 but looked much better late last season. The Broncos have some other options at center, however. Veteran
Graham Glasgow played well at right guard before fracturing an ankle last season, giving Meinerz his opportunity. Glasgow
took a pay cut to remain with the Broncos. He was still rehabbing the injury during OTAs, but the former Lions starting center
was expected to push either Cushenberry or Meinerz for playing time. The team is also reportedly high on fifth-round pick
Luke Wattenberg (Washington), who moved from left tackle to center over a six-year collegiate career. 🏈 Much-travelled
all-purpose lineman Tom Compton is also on the roster in case the Broncos need even more randos.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Dre'Mont Jones 25 DE 16 616 33 4.2% 77 22 13 1 24 58% 82 2.4 37 5.5 7 24 1
Shelby Harris* 31 DE 16 566 51 6.5% 26 31 19 5 42 52% 95 3.7 94 6.0 5 18 2
Shamar Stephen* 31 DE 17 393 36 4.3% -- 22 3 3 33 58% -- 3.0 -- 0.0 3 6 3
DeShawn Williams 30 DT 15 386 41 5.6% 49 23 5 2 35 54% 93 3.8 95 1.0 5 8 2
Mike Purcell 31 DT 13 362 34 5.4% 54 20 1 4 30 63% 75 3.5 93 0.0 2 5 1
D.J. Jones 27 DT 17 550 56 6.6% 22 50 13 6 47 89% 2 1.1 2 2.0 1 11 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Malik Reed 26 OLB 14 739 45 6.6% 24 27 10 5 32 50% 94 4.0 90 5.0 3 18 0
Jonathon Cooper 24 OLB 16 457 37 4.7% 60 25 9 3 32 66% 75 3.4 78 2.5 4 11 0
Bradley Chubb 26 OLB 7 268 23 6.7% 22 13 4 5 18 61% 81 3.4 79 0.0 5 8 0
Randy Gregory 30 DE 12 436 20 3.3% 85 15 9 4 12 67% 70 2.7 55 6.0 11 24 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Kenny Young* 28 ILB 13 645 76 10.7% 56 42 15 11 42 64% 18 4.6 70 2.0 0 6 27 41% 60 9.7 72 1 0
Baron Browning 23 ILB 14 528 59 8.7% 70 24 11 7 31 29% 85 5.8 84 0.0 1 2 23 48% 40 6.1 35 2 0
A.J. Johnson* 31 ILB 6 325 35 12.0% 43 23 4 1 24 67% 11 3.3 19 2.0 0 2 17 65% 9 5.5 23 3 0
Justin Strnad 26 ILB 16 316 32 4.1% -- 11 1 9 19 32% -- 5.5 -- 0.0 1 2 14 57% -- 4.9 -- 0 0
Jonas Griffith 25 ILB 13 255 42 6.6% -- 29 7 3 25 72% -- 2.6 -- 0.0 2 2 14 71% -- 5.5 -- 0 0
Alex Singleton 29 OLB 16 721 133 16.1% 17 53 14 20 67 49% 66 3.9 43 0.0 2 3 34 38% 65 5.4 20 4 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.00 4.28 18 58% 6 18% 21 1.08 10 0.56 8 13.1% 15 40 7.6% 11 28.3% 24 15.4% 13
2020 4.56 4.51 20 73% 28 14% 24 1.11 9 0.92 26 11.3% 22 42 8.0% 5 24.0% 19 13.1% 18
2021 4.36 4.58 24 69% 17 13% 30 1.16 14 0.48 8 9.8% 29 36 6.5% 18 23.5% 27 11.3% 30
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.58 (9) Left Tackle: 5.35 (30) Mid/Guard: 4.85 (31) Right Tackle: 4.22 (17) Right End: 3.17 (5)

Bradley Chubb lost 10 games to a pair of ankle injuries and a COVID bout in 2021. He was never truly healthy, as the first
ankle injury limited him in 2021 OTAs. “My worst year as a pro,” he told the Denver Post after the season. Chubb is the healthi-
est he has been in years. He is also playing under the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. George Paton has said that he hopes
Chubb stays with the Broncos “for a long time” but appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach before putting any money
behind his words. 🏈 Randy Gregory recorded five sacks in seven 2021 games before suffering a knee injury which required
minor surgery. He recorded just one sack in five games upon his return, though he was still mustered a respectable 18 pressures
(plus an interception). Even giving Gregory full benefit of the doubt for his past substance issues, he’ll turn 30 in November
and has recorded 16.5 sacks in 50 NFL games. The Broncos are paying $28 million guaranteed for one outstanding October.
🏈 There’s plenty of depth on the edge if Chubb and/or Gregory falter. Malik Reed is the defensive version of Broncos wide
receiver Tim Patrick. Every year, he earns playing time and performs well, and every offseason, the Broncos try to replace
him. Second-round pick Nik Bonitto (Oklahoma), one of those potential replacements, is like a young, baggage-free version
of Gregory: a guided missile off the edge who offers almost nothing as a run defender. Jonathon Cooper, a 2021 seventh-round
pick who made some splash plays against the Cowboys and Browns, suffered a finger injury during OTAs and may be limited at
the start of camp. Finally, Baron Browning is expected to move to the edge after being forced into action as an inside linebacker
as a third-round rookie last year. 🏈 Josey Jewell was playing well before tearing a pec in Week 2 of 2021. Jewell has always
80 DENVER BRONCOS

been an effective run defender between the tackles and has improved in coverage over the years. 🏈 Alex Singleton, who
is penciled in next to Jewell at inside linebacker, is one of those defenders Eagles fans love to hate. Singleton struggles with
routine coverage matchups against running backs. It didn’t help that opponents often found ways to match him up against their
top receivers as a slot defender. Jonas Griffith, a third-year defender who played well down the stretch in 2021, could push/sup-
plant Singleton, and Browning could also take some snaps inside. 🏈 Shelby Harris’ absence will be missed on the defensive
line. Newcomer D.J. Jones generated plenty of buzz with the 49ers, but lining up between Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead has
its advantages. Jones is a nimble 305-pounder best suited to a 25- to 30-snap role. 🏈 Dre’Mont Jones is the quintessential
Broncos player who is due for a breakout any day now (see: the entire receiver corps). Jones has been a situational pass-rushing
tackle for most of his three seasons. Ideally, he and D.J. Jones would form an all-Jones rotation, but they are slated to start next
to each other. 🏈 Journeymen Mike Purcell and DeShawn Williams will get pushed for rotation roles by fourth-round pick
Eyioma Uwazurike (Iowa State) and sixth-rounder Matt Henningsen (Wisconsin). Uwazurike is a 6-foot-6 geological feature
with surprising pass-rush moves who can play all over the defensive front. Henningsen, who graduated with an electrical engi-
neering degree, is an undersized run-stopper best suited to the 5-technique. Expect a lot of mixing and matching as defensive
coordinator Ejiro Evero tries to make sure his bigger linemen don’t get gassed and his smaller ones don’t get pushed around.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Justin Simmons 29 FS 17 1084 92 11.1% 32 38 18 11 40 45% 24 6.6 33 39 8.9% 31 10.1 59% 25 5.9 21 12 5
Patrick Surtain 22 CB 16 902 71 9.1% 35 22 9 10 16 25% 66 7.1 56 83 22.8% 20 11.9 51% 53 6.0 20 14 4
Kareem Jackson 34 SS 15 897 90 12.3% 21 20 5 17 43 30% 49 6.5 32 24 6.6% 57 12.1 58% 29 7.3 39 2 1
Kyle Fuller* 30 CB 16 720 55 7.1% 64 23 8 7 12 67% 3 3.0 4 52 17.9% 61 11.0 46% 69 8.6 67 4 0
Ronald Darby 28 CB 11 676 59 11.0% 10 22 6 4 15 33% 54 9.4 72 64 23.5% 18 12.3 55% 41 7.5 50 6 0
Bryce Callahan* 31 CB 11 505 33 6.2% -- 12 4 5 8 25% -- 6.1 -- 36 17.7% -- 11.7 53% -- 8.1 -- 4 0
Caden Sterns 23 SAF 15 311 29 4.0% -- 14 8 2 12 42% -- 8.5 -- 14 11.2% -- 9.6 29% -- 12.6 -- 5 2
K'Waun Williams 31 CB 14 648 56 8.1% -- 28 18 8 19 53% -- 3.5 -- 27 12.5% -- 8.1 33% -- 8.7 -- 4 1

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 14 11.2% 26 -9.0% 8 -20.7% 5 13.3% 26 -14.5% 4 -11.9% 5 -11.5% 6
2020 11 -13.2% 8 -2.7% 15 7.4% 21 10.6% 25 -4.2% 13 4.7% 18 -16.7% 4
2021 20 3.2% 18 0.8% 19 -4.1% 12 -10.7% 12 9.1% 18 -12.5% 11 3.0% 25

Patrick Surtain intercepted Russell Wilson’s very first pass of Broncos OTAs and returned it for a pick-six. In the past, pick-
sixes in Broncos practices were a five-times-per-day affair, but things are different now that the Broncos have a real quarter-
back. Surtain, famously selected instead of Justin Fields or Mac Jones in the 2021 draft, had a remarkable rookie season, hold-
ing his own against even Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase in coverage. Surtain is already the best player on the Broncos defense
and may be the second most important individual on the roster. 🏈 Ronald Darby gave up 11 completions for 246 yards and
two touchdowns on 20 targets of 15-plus yards as opponents learned to steer clear of Surtain as the season wore on. Darby al-
lows a few too many deep shots and has gone two years without an interception, but he has shaken off most of the critical lapses
that plagued him in Philly, making him an adequate veteran CB2. 🏈 Justin Simmons remains one of the NFL’s top pure free
safeties. The biggest knock on his game is that he’s a pure free safety. 🏈 Kareem Jackson is now 34 years old and played
through a neck injury that clearly slowed him last season. Jackson said during OTAs that he plans to play “as long as my body
allows me to.” There is no serious challenger to his starting job on the roster. 🏈 K’Waun Williams was almost exclusively
a slot corner for the 49ers, and he will take over the slot corner role vacated by Bryce Callahan. The 5-foot-9, 180-pound Wil-
liams is practically a slot stereotype: feisty in run defense, sneaky as a blitzer, useless against receivers who can reach the cereal
on the top shelf, custom-built to neutralize Hunter Renfrow twice per year. 🏈 Fourth-round pick Damarri Mathis timed well
at the combine and has a tough-guy reputation but was flagged for DPI six times in just 59 targets in his final season at Pitt,
meaning he’s probably not ready to take the field just yet.
 DENVER BRONCOS 81

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -1.9% 24 4.5 8 -4.0 26 3.3 8 -11.9 31 -1.4 17 -0.5 18
2020 -2.1% 24 5.1 10 -10.9 32 -4.3 27 -6.3 27 5.9 4 -3.2 19
2021 -3.9% 30 0.7 14 -17.1 32 -2.9 22 2.0 14 -3.6 28 5.7 6

New special teams coordinator Dwayne Stukes made improving return units that have been awful for years his top point
of emphasis this offseason, but the Broncos did not pursue any Andre Roberts types in free agency. Emergency quarterback-
ing legend Kendall Hinton is the closest thing to an incumbent as a specialist, but fifth-round pick Montrell Washington, a
170-pound junebug from Samford, will get every opportunity to claim the return chores. Washington caught the Broncos’ eye
when he returned a kickoff for a touchdown (and also caught 10 passes for 124 yards) against Florida. Washington also returned
punts for touchdowns in 2019 and 2021. “I’m fearless,” Washington said during rookie camp. “I just think I’m fearless back
there. Just catch it and go. It’s like a game, I guess.” Yes, rookie, it is indeed a game. It’s called “football.” Washington may be
a gifted prospect, but if every small-school speedster was an undiscovered Devin Hester, there would be 50 kick return touch-
downs per NFL season instead of 11. 🏈 With their snail-paced and mildly ineffectual offense, the Broncos did not kick off
often. When they did, Brandon McManus finished third in the NFL in touchback percentage (74.0%), thanks in part to altitude.
Yet the Broncos somehow gave up more kick return value than any other team despite facing only 14 returns all season. That
included touchdowns by Andre Roberts and Jamal Agnew plus four other returns of at least 30 yards. The Broncos also allowed
six kick returns of at least 30 yards in 2020. Maybe that should be the top point of emphasis this offseason. 🏈 As a place-
kicker, McManus has missed just two field goals inside 50 yards over the last two seasons. 🏈 Sam Martin’s yards-per-punt
rates are low for someone who plays half his games at high altitude, but the distortions of the Broncos offense may once again
be at work. Martin punted 20 times from the Broncos’ 40-yard line through midfield, second only to Michael Dickson of the
Seahawks, who punted six trillion times in 2021. The Broncos offense often drove just far enough to punt after a first down or
two, forcing Martin to execute high hang-time punts. For the record, 14 of Martin’s almost-midfield punts landed inside the 20,
and only four were returned.
 Detroit Lions
2021 record: 3-13-1 Total DVOA: -27.2% (29) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.0 wins On the Clock (0-5): 18%
Pythagorean Wins: 4.9 (27) Offense: -17.7% (29) Postseason Odds: 34.9% Mediocrity (6-8): 41%
Snap-Weighted Age: 25.3 (32) Defense: 10.8% (29) Super Bowl Odds: 2.9% Playoff Contender (9-11): 32%
Average Opponent: 2.1% (5) Special Teams: 1.3% (10) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -1.3% (26) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 10%

2021: Nothing says “rebuild” like trading away the franchise’s best quarterback since the 1950s.

2022: The train is on the right track; it’s just a few hundred miles from its destination.

F resh starts in the NFL are often ugly, but rarely are they
as outward with their ugliness as the 2021 Detroit Lions.
Franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, after 12 years of ser-
haul, not guys who might be able to take over drives or games
right away. Detroit’s first three picks were spent on an offen-
sive tackle and a pair of defensive tackles, all of whom were
vice that was only ever rewarded with failure, was shipped off expected to start or contribute heavily from Day 1. They each
to the Los Angeles Rams in a player swap with Jared Goff, played relatively well, but none of them played quarterback,
an event that shouted out Detroit’s intention to be bad to the receiver, or in the secondary, the last of which ended up being
entire world. Stafford was the best passer the team ever had, the Lions’ biggest pain point throughout the season.
Goff was someone else’s leftovers, and the rest of the moves Nevertheless, this desolate roster without a long-term quar-
that followed the quarterback swap made it clear this was no terback, without much proven receiver talent, and without a
soft reset. It was a complete and total concession to being bad secondary worth anything in coverage fought their asses off
and needing to be bad for the near future before things could every week. They knew they were going to lose almost every
turn around for the long run. The Lions were going to lose game, but they made teams work like hell for it. There was
games and they knew that and it was fine. a sense of buy-in with the team that was born out of smart
Let’s rewind for a second. Even before the trade, the team coaching and aggressive decision-making. It sounds corny,
made themselves a laughingstock in the media with their maybe even unimportant, and definitely immeasurable. A
head-coaching hire. The Lions brought on Dan Campbell, for- loss is a loss and the Lions had a lot of them. Not every ter-
merly the Saints tight end coach who had briefly served as the rible team can get that kind of buy-in and energy, though. The
interim head coach in Miami following Joe Philbin’s firing. Matt Patricia-era Lions never did and it’s already evident how
Campbell was a fun, energetic meathead of an interim at the much better the Campbell era is and can be in that regard.
time, but it hadn’t really occurred to anyone that he would be Part of the buy-in was that Campbell’s macho, go-get-’em
someone’s choice for a head-coaching job. energy wasn’t just a show, and it wasn’t just a personality for
Campbell confirmed everyone’s meathead assumptions the locker room and practice field. He lives that energy, and
with his first few press conferences as he waxed poetic about his decision-making in high-leverage spots proved it. Camp-
toughness, never giving up, and, of course, chompin’ on knee- bell wasn’t ever coaching to avoid losing or minimize deficits;
caps over and over, all while seeming a wee bit overcaffein- he wanted to win the damn game however he could. Every-
ated. He sounded more like the tough but caring coach of a thing Campbell said he was about was honest, and that’s a
small high school, not the buttoned-up CEO type or scheme core pillar when trying to get players to buy in on a bad team.
wizard that populates the rest of the league’s head coaching Campbell is already one of the most aggressive coaches
positions. Campbell appeared to be someone just a little out in the league. Based on our Aggressiveness Index, Brandon
of his depth, and the team he was being asked to commandeer Staley is the only coach who has been more aggressive on
was not going to do him any favors. fourth down than Campbell since 2018. By comparison, Patri-
None of the Lions’ offseason moves were to set up Camp- cia ranked 51st out of 55 coaches over that span.
bell for success in 2021 either. Almost the entire receiver room Anecdotally, Campbell’s boldness made for a few memo-
was allowed to walk, including the effective duo of Marvin rable moments last year. Against Minnesota in Week 5, the
Jones and Kenny Golladay. All the Lions did to replace them Lions scored a touchdown with 37 seconds left to put the
was sign Tyrell Williams (who suffered a concussion in Week game at 16-15 in favor of the Vikings, leaving Campbell with
1 and never returned), add a couple of other backup types, the chance to tie or go ahead. He called the two-pointer, it
and wait until the fourth round to draft a wideout. Detroit’s worked, and then the defense just lost itself on the final drive
only other “major” free-agent move was bringing in Jamaal and surrendered a game-winning field goal anyway. Two
Williams, a steady early-down back to complement D’Andre weeks later against the Rams, Campbell pulled out all the
Swift. They didn’t really add anyone on defense through free stops, including an onside kick recovery in the first quarter
agency. The offensive line remained intact until the draft, too. and three fourth-down attempts, one of which was a success-
Via the draft, Detroit sought building blocks for the long ful fake punt that eventually set up a field goal. The Lions lost
82
 DETROIT LIONS 83

2021 DET DVOA by Week

2022 Lions Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 PHI 7 at DAL 13 JAX
2 WAS 8 MIA 14 MIN 40%
3 at MIN 9 GB 15 at NYJ 20%
4 SEA 10 at CHI 16 at CAR (Sat.)
0%
5 at NE 11 at NYG 17 CHI
6 BYE 12 BUF (Thu.) 18 at GB -20%

-40%

-60%

that game, of course, but it was a one-score contest until the -80%

end of the fourth quarter and Detroit even briefly led 19-17 -100%

during the third quarter. Against the Falcons late in the year,
Campbell went for it on four fourth downs with Tim Boyle at
starting quarterback. And they converted three of them! With
Tim Boyle at quarterback! If that’s not a commitment to being wasn’t great in coverage (and he wasn’t asked to do it a ton at
aggressive, then nothing is. Purdue), but his work between the tackles was both encourag-
Campbell also got a ton out of his rookie class. Some of that ing and a perfect encapsulation of the kind of spirit Campbell
was to be expected, like with Penei Sewell. Some of that was seems to want in his players.
out of necessity, in that the roster didn’t have any clear start- Not to be forgotten, fourth-round receiver Amon-Ra St.
ers at some spots, therefore the rookies had to see the field. Brown came alive in electric fashion down the stretch. Out of
But overall, the Lions’ rookies played a lot, from starters to the gate, St. Brown already looked like a steal, working as the
rotational players, and they mostly looked promising. The Li- team’s underneath to low-intermediate possession receiver,
ons finished the year with the most rookie snaps in the league but it wasn’t until the final five games where he fully proved
(Table 1) and many of those guys played well enough to retain his worth. During that stretch, as T.J. Hockenson was out with
their spots on the depth chart moving into 2022. injury, St. Brown really turned it on and became the team’s
clear-cut WR1, earning 11 targets per game over that span.
Table 1. Most Snaps by Granted, St. Brown would never be a No. 1 on a legit offense,
but that he could handle that kind of volume on a bad team is
Rookies in 2021 nothing short of impressive and allowed us to get an extended
look at his route-running, hands, and toughness. He is going
Team
Rookie
Pct Off Pct Def Pct ST Pct to be a good starter for Detroit for at least the next three years.
Snaps
All of that production from the rookies was gravy. The Li-
DET 6,172 20.9% 21.6% 21.2% 18.5% ons knew they would be horrible but got a silver lining out
NYJ 5,795 19.2% 23.1% 16.4% 17.2% of it with all of their rookies playing the way they did. Now
PHI 4,933 16.6% 20.5% 9.7% 24.3% heading into 2022, the Lions are actually trying a little bit
ATL 4,709 16.2% 16.1% 11.8% 28.4% more to be competitive. The rookies and second-year guys
PIT 4,965 16.0% 28.8% 5.4% 10.2% will still be relied on, but Detroit also made real moves in free
DEN 4,271 15.1% 10.3% 19.7% 15.4% agency this offseason, suggesting that they are ready to try to
LAC 4,556 14.8% 14.7% 8.5% 31.1% jump-start this thing.
LV 4,431 14.5% 9.1% 18.4% 17.8% Jared Goff remaining in place at quarterback puts a bit of a
MIA 3,959 13.1% 17.2% 12.1% 5.4% damper on things, but the rest of the offense got better around
KC 3,938 13.1% 20.3% 5.7% 12.1% him. That starts with the offensive line, particularly as a run-
blocking unit—if everyone can stay healthy. Last year, left
Sewell was as advertised. Though a bit raw in pass protec- tackle Taylor Decker (finger) missed the first half of the sea-
tion early on, which is to be expected of a 21-year-old com- son and center Frank Ragnow (toe) missed most of the year.
ing off a year of not playing football, Sewell really started Getting a full season of Decker means Sewell gets to stick at
to settle in as the season went on, especially once he moved right tackle, where he played in the second half of the year and
to right tackle when Taylor Decker returned from injury. On really started to come into his own. Decker’s return is a little
the other side of the trenches, Levi Onwuzurike looked like a complicated thanks to a foot injury he suffered in the season
fairly disruptive 3-technique with promise. Alim McNeill, at finale, but the expectation is that he’ll be good to go by the
Onwuzurike’s side playing 1-technique, had spurts of stout time Week 1 comes around. Ragnow returning to the lineup is
play along the interior and played with much better eyes than also a huge boon to the ground game. He has been one of the
a rookie Day 2 pick might be expected to. Behind those hog best and toughest run-blocking centers in the league for the
mollies was linebacker Derrick Barnes, a fourth-round rookie past few seasons. Backup Evan Brown was not close to that
with pterodactyl arms and a hankering for contact. Barnes level last year. If the Lions’ run game improves and they can
84 DETROIT LIONS

better stay in favorable situations for Goff—a necessity back lously revitalized Charles Harris, another nod to Campbell
during his days in Los Angeles—then Goff should be a little and Glenn’s ability to rally players, and on-and-off play from
better as a passer. the Okwara brothers (when they were healthy, that is). The
Goff has real receivers to throw to now as well. St. Brown’s Lions made sure Glenn wouldn’t ever have that little edge tal-
emergence last year was awesome, but he can’t carry a pass- ent again, drafting Aidan Hutchinson second overall and Josh
ing offense by himself. Now St. Brown is flanked by veteran Paschal in the second round.
DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams, giving the Lions a Hutchinson is the clear X-factor on defense. The second
wonderful blend of different and complementary skill sets. overall pick, Hutchinson brings a blend of lateral quickness,
Chark is the true X who can win on the sideline and in jump- strength, and crafty hand usage that gives him multiple ways
ball situations. St. Brown is the underneath possession option, to win as a pass-rusher. Hutchinson’s inside jab to set up an
primarily from the slot with a sprinkling of work outside. outside counter is his best move, but he can also win with
Williams, though perhaps unavailable early on as he recov- an array of other techniques, as well as a simple bull rush.
ers from an ACL injury at the end of the college season, will He isn’t the bendiest rusher around the edge, despite his elite
become one of the league’s fastest receivers as soon as he hits combine showing, but he clears the bar in that department
the field, and he brings much more route-running savvy than when paired with all his other skills. Harris wasn’t bad last
the speedster archetype tends to enter the league with. year, but Hutchinson may well be the team’s best pass-rusher
The additions of Chark and Williams aren’t just talent up- out of the gate.
grades; they change the identity of the offense. Last year’s Hutchinson was also a lights-out run defender in college
squad could not stretch the field whatsoever. Goff won’t ever and projects to be quite useful there as a pro. Hutchinson is
try to do it unless prompted to, and nobody on the team was as sharp as it gets when reading run versus pass, as well as
really worth streamlining deep targets to. In turn, the of- exactly what kind of run concept he is getting. Hutchinson
fense just didn’t attack down the field, allowing defenses to knows when to squeeze, chase, or settle to take on a puller
constantly play up for checkdowns and defend the run. Goff without any hesitation.
won’t turn into Brett Favre overnight, but Chark and Williams The Lions should also get production from Paschal. A de-
give the Lions options to attack down the field in a multitude fensive end out of Kentucky, Paschal is a bully through and
of ways, which should help create space for St. Brown and through. He has long arms, a thick frame, and an overwhelm-
Hockenson in the short to intermediate range. Granted, Chark ing degree of strength to support his “by any means” playstyle
and Williams are both coming off injuries and Williams is also and energy. He brings a similar body type and skill set as Trey
a rookie, but it would be quite difficult to be worse than the Flowers, whom the team signed in 2019 and let go this off-
team’s receiving options last year, especially as deep threats. season. Though mostly a pocket-pusher in the passing game
Expecting the Lions offense to be good after these changes right now, Paschal’s run defense profile is about as good as
is a stretch, but it can be competent. It can be a middle-of- anyone’s in this draft class. In fact, Paschal had 15 tackles for
the-road offense with a few great performances sprinkled loss in the SEC last year, only 1.5 behind Hutchinson’s total
throughout. Seeing as the goal for Detroit’s offense should re- in the Big Ten. Assuming both of those two can give some
ally be to prove it is a healthy environment for a new quarter- positive value in the run game the way their college profiles
back, be that a rookie or in a trade for a disgruntled vet (Kyler suggest, Detroit’s No. 31 run defense should take a leap for-
Murray?), “competent” is more than enough, especially if the ward. Their work on the edge will help make things easier on
young players are trending upwards by the end of the year. those around them.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions need to see what In theory, getting better on the outside, in both the starting
Aaron Glenn can do as a playcaller. Glenn got his first shot lineup and the rotational crew, should also solve some of the
at calling a defense in 2021 after spending years with the defense’s stale pressure issues from last year. In 2021, Glenn
Saints as their defensive backs coach. Not only can Glenn get rarely ever blitzed on first or second down, likely out of fear
some credit for the development of Marcus Williams, Vonn that doing anything but vanilla on base downs would put his
Bell, and Marshon Lattimore, but he even made some fringe corners at risk. And he would probably be right. Glenn tended
NFLers look competent at times, most famously Ken Craw- to only send extra guys on third down, which made it pain-
ley, and eventually helped foster a winning formula for P.J. fully obvious to quarterbacks and observers alike how to deal
Williams by making him a nickelback. His track record as a with this defense.
position coach was impressive, but last year’s Lions had close With some new talent on the edge, though, Glenn should
to zero secondary talent and it was Glenn’s first time calling feel more inclined to create 1-on-1 chances for his guys via
plays. Glenn brought some good ideas, such as flexing Julian pressures and blitzes, particularly to free up Hutchinson. Gen-
Okwara to nose in exotic fronts or spamming Cover-2 to let erating those chances has more value now than just flooding
Detroit’s scrappy cornerbacks tackle more, but as an overall the back end with bodies. Glenn should also feel freer to send
operation, he had one hand tied behind his back and it showed pressure up the middle on early downs, even if the play may
in the results. be a run, knowing that his edge guys can handle their own a
Now Glenn has a roster to work with. More specifically, bit better if things get bounced their way.
Glenn has players who can get after the passer and set the Exciting as that sounds, perhaps that shift is still a year
edge. All Glenn had on the perimeter last year was a miracu- away. The new edge players are promising, but they are rook-
 DETROIT LIONS 85

ies at the end of the day. Moreover, the secondary is still a man coverage situations, it’s a stretch to say Hughes is good
major question mark, and that may sway Glenn’s decision- enough to completely change how Glenn can call the back
making more than anything considering he is a former sec- end. Both Okudah and Hughes would need to play at a quality
ondary guy, both as a coach and player. The cornerback talent, they haven’t previously, and that’s just not reasonable to as-
in particular, is still lacking. sume for either of them.
Detroit’s corners were the worst in the league last year, in With all of that in mind, the goal for Detroit’s defense
part because of injury. The team only finished 27th in pass de- shouldn’t be to be good. They don’t have enough horses to
fense DVOA, but when watching how restrictive the scheme be good yet. Their goal should be showing clear, definable
was because of the lack of cornerback talent, it became clear improvement. The additions on the edge, some assumed de-
that’s why the unit was struggling more than anything else. velopment from the guys in the middle, and any degree of
Some guys, such as A.J. Parker and Jerry Jacobs, looked fine improved play from the secondary should combine to take
in specific roles. Jacobs, for instance, is an excellent flat con- the Lions defense from an atrocity to a manageable weak-
troller and tackler. He’ll trigger on screens, quick throws, run ness. Our projections suggest the Lions will take a slight step
game, and anything in the flat, and kill it with all his energy. up, but they could reasonably reach the low 20s in defensive
He just can’t cover like an NFL cornerback down the field. Ja- DVOA depending on just how much they can get from their
cobs could have passed as a fine starter 20 years ago in Lovie first- and second-year guys, and how much Glenn is able to
Smith’s defense, but not in today’s game. expand the playbook with the new pieces.
One of Detroit’s biggest secondary issues is figuring out what Improvement is the theme for the Lions all around this year.
to do with 2020 third overall pick Jeff Okudah. He missed ba- The team had no chance of being competitive last season, but
sically the entire 2021 season with a torn Achilles, stripping now they can be a mediocre team that makes for a tough out
him of his chance to show he took a step forward after a rough week-in and week-out. Winning six to eight games while the
rookie year. Now Okudah will be trying to prove himself off rookies and second-year players look like legitimate building
of a lower body injury after having already been a tick slow by blocks would be a success for this year’s Lions. That’s not the
NFL standards. It’s hard to feel confident about his prospects at most exciting situation to be in, but given the team traded away
this stage, even if his college film was awesome. the best quarterback in the franchise’s history about 18 months
The Lions did sign Mike Hughes, formerly of the Vikings ago, it’d be hard to complain about a near-.500 campaign.
and Chiefs, to add some competition to the unit. While he
is better than the Parker and Jacobs types, particularly in Derrik Klassen

2021 Lions by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 SF L 0% 33 41 430 442 1 -32% 0% 27% -6% Total DVOA -17.7% 29 10.8% 29
2 at GB L 5% 17 35 344 323 -2 -16% 5% 24% 3% Unadjusted VOA -17.7% 28 12.5% 30
3 BAL L 16% 17 19 285 387 1 -21% -13% 5% -3% Weighted Trend -19.7% 29 9.3% 30
4 at CHI L 13% 14 24 351 373 -1 -35% -10% 32% 6% Variance 5.5% 6 4.2% 11
5 at MIN L 30% 17 19 288 384 0 0% -21% -11% 9% Average Opponent 0.8% 24 3.1% 2
6 CIN L 2% 11 34 228 398 0 -59% -54% 9% 3%
7 at LAR L 2% 19 28 415 374 -2 -19% -1% 23% 5% Passing -7.2% 28 17.8% 27
8 PHI L 0% 6 44 228 350 -1 -82% -64% 15% -3% Rushing -17.3% 26 2.4% 31
9 BYE
First Down -14.4% 28 11.6% 29
10 at PIT T 43% 16 16 306 387 3 -14% -18% -8% -3%
Second Down -14.3% 24 7.0% 25
11 at CLE L 5% 10 13 245 349 0 -19% -20% 4% 5%
Third Down -27.7% 29 15.9% 27
12 CHI L 18% 14 16 239 378 0 -32% -21% 10% 0%
13 MIN W 8% 29 27 372 426 -1 -27% -12% 12% -2% First Half -13.4% 26 12.2% 32
14 at DEN L 0% 10 38 316 358 -2 -78% -31% 47% 0% Second Half -21.8% 29 9.4% 26
15 ARI W 88% 30 12 338 398 0 29% 11% -15% 3%
16 at ATL L 11% 16 20 338 254 0 -54% -44% 15% 5% Red Zone -34.5% 32 29.3% 32
17 at SEA L 0% 29 51 357 497 -3 -75% -32% 45% 2% Late and Close -19.2% 30 -4.0% 9
18 GB W 98% 37 30 404 378 3 55% 29% -29% -2%
86 DETROIT LIONS

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 8.9 8.9 410 376 +10 9.0% 12 4.1% 12 0.1% 15 4.9% 5 27.0 11 44.3 23 26.6 21 26.0 21 26.0 9
2018 6-10 7.0 6.6 324 360 -5 -10.5% 23 -5.2% 22 4.4% 21 -0.9% 20 40.9 19 33.9 17 26.8 15 26.2 17 26.5 8
2019 3-12-1 5.9 6.6 341 423 -5 -8.1% 21 -3.0% 18 6.5% 23 1.4% 10 56.5 29 31.3 17 26.6 20 26.3 16 25.9 14
2020 5-11 4.8 6.2 377 519 -9 -15.7% 27 0.0% 16 17.7% 32 1.9% 11 32.5 12 51.1 22 26.8 14 26.6 10 26.1 16
2021 3-13-1 4.9 4.7 325 467 -4 -27.2% 29 -17.7% 29 10.8% 29 1.3% 10 61.6 27 60.8 28 24.9 32 25.8 24 25.1 30

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

DET Offense DET Offense vs. Opponents DET Defense DET Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 58% 5.3 -7.5% 29% Base 29% 5.0 -15.0% 62% Base 26% 5.6 4.4% 11 56% 6.4 8.6%
12 12% 5.2 1.3% 50% Nickel 58% 5.2 -13.3% 31% Nickel 60% 6.5 15.8% 12 22% 5.3 4.5%
21 9% 4.8 -28.9% 48% Dime+ 11% 6.8 15.7% 14% Dime+ 11% 6.6 -2.8% 21 9% 6.8 25.6%
612 4% 5.3 -10.8% 83% Goal Line 0% 1.0 -6.0% 75% Goal Line 1% 1.1 22.9% 13 5% 6.0 25.1%
10 3% 6.1 -19.7% 3% Big 2% 2.5 -45.9% 68% Big 1% 3.1 -13.3% 22 4% 5.5 20.1%
611 3% 4.6 -28.4% 64%
22 3% 4.1 -2.8% 63%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 44% 2 Form: Single Back 85% 9 Rush 3 10.3% 6 4 DB 26% 11 Play Action 22% 27
Runs, first down 47% 21 Form: Empty Back 7% 21 Rush 4 61.4% 29 5 DB 60% 17 Offensive Motion 42% 19
Runs, second-long 30% 14 Form: Multi Back 7% 17 Rush 5 19.4% 16 6+ DB 11% 21 Avg Box (Off) 6.52 12
Runs, power sit. 58% 16 Pers: 3+ WR 66% 15 Rush 6+ 9.0% 4 Man Coverage 33% 7 Avg Box (Def) 6.52 16
Runs, behind 2H 29% 15 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 26% 23 Edge Rusher Sacks 70.0% 4 CB by Sides 61% 24 Offensive Pace 32.64 29
Pass, ahead 2H 47% 17 Pers: 6+ OL 11% 2 Interior DL Sacks 15.0% 26 S/CB Cover Ratio 37% 2 Defensive Pace 31.04 16
Run-Pass Options 5% 25 Shotgun/Pistol 59% 24 Second Level Sacks 15.0% 17 DB Blitz 13% 11 Go for it on 4th 1.48 4

Detroit’s offense ranked fifth in adjusted sack rate on first and second down (4.4%) but 25th on third and fourth down (9.0%).
🏈 The Lions offense was average in broken tackles after being near the bottom of the league in both 2019 and 2020. 🏈
The Lions defense had 159 broken tackles in 2021, 17 more than any other defense. Alex Anzalone led the NFL with 23 while
four other Lions were in double digits: Tracy Walker with 14, Charles Harris with 11, and A.J. Parker and Jalen Reeves-Maybin
with 10 apiece. 🏈 The new coaching regime really changed how Detroit used safeties, as Will Harris and Tracy Walker
were more interchangeable. In 2020, the Lions had one of the league’s biggest gaps in the average yardage on plays by the two
starting safeties, 7.2 yards. Last season, the Lions instead had one of the league’s smallest gaps, only 0.3 yards. 🏈 Detroit
opponents targeted running backs on a league-low 13% of passes. Compared to other defenses, Detroit faced a lot of passes to
tight ends and “other receivers.” 🏈 The Lions had the worst defensive DVOA (15.8%) and most yards allowed per play
(6.5) with nickel defensive personnel.
 DETROIT LIONS 87

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Goff 260 -3.6% 524 2951 5.6 5.3 68.0% 19 8 A.St.Brown 181 6.9% 119 90 912 10.1 4.7 5 76%
T.Boyle -198 -43.0% 94 526 5.6 4.3 64.9% 3 6 K.Raymond 62 -1.8% 71 48 576 12.0 5.5 4 68%
J.Reynolds 40 1.3% 36 19 306 16.1 4.1 2 53%
K.Hodge* -40 -31.0% 27 13 157 12.1 2.8 0 48%
T.Benson -35 -30.0% 23 10 103 9.9 5.4 0 45%
Q.Cephus 71 26.0% 22 15 204 13.6 6.3 2 68%
T.Kennedy -13 -28.3% 10 6 54 9.0 2.8 0 60%
Rushing DJ Chark 3 -10.7% 22 7 154 22.0 3.4 2 32%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc T.J.Hockenson 71 5.2% 84 61 583 9.6 3.3 4 73%
J.Williams 40 -2.6% 153 601 3.9 3 1 54% B.Wright 14 5.0% 17 12 117 9.8 5.3 2 71%
D.Swift -77 -21.6% 151 617 4.1 5 0 36% S.Zylstra -24 -49.4% 7 3 34 11.3 2.0 0 43%
C.Reynolds -19 -16.6% 55 230 4.2 0 0 44% D.Swift 32 -6.4% 79 62 452 7.2 8.0 2 79%
G.Igwebuike 1 -6.9% 18 118 6.6 1 2 61% J.Williams 36 11.5% 28 26 157 6.0 6.0 0 93%
J.Goff -60 -80.8% 17 85 5.0 0 3 - G.Igwebuike 5 -5.3% 10 7 60 8.6 9.1 0 70%
J.Jefferson 19 22.5% 15 74 4.9 2 0 53% C.Reynolds 5 -3.4% 8 7 52 7.4 7.9 0 88%
A.St.Brown 36 119.0% 7 61 8.7 1 0 - J.Cabinda -4 -22.0% 7 4 16 4.0 2.0 1 57%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Penei Sewell LT/RT 22 16/16 1039 11 5.0 23 3 Matt Nelson RT 27 13/11 675 2 4.0 17 7
Jonah Jackson LG 25 16/16 1037 8 3.0 15 10 Taylor Decker LT 28 9/9 529 7 0.5 10 5
Halapoulivaati Vaitai RG 29 15/15 953 2 0.0 5 11 Tommy Kraemer RG/LG 24 9/3 238 3 0.0 3 4
Evan Brown C 26 16/12 755 4 0.0 4 9 Frank Ragnow C 26 4/4 223 0 0.0 0 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.94 4.21 20 64% 19 18% 12 1.12 22 0.54 25 11.8% 26 43 7.2% 19 30.2% 18 14.6% 23 25
2020 4.07 4.30 19 67% 14 17% 18 1.06 29 0.62 20 8.2% 7 42 7.2% 21 20.8% 5 10.4% 8 23
2021 4.27 4.09 21 59% 26 19% 27 1.20 15 0.78 8 12.3% 22 36 5.8% 12 24.7% 11 12.9% 11 25
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.19 (30) Left Tackle: 5.05 (4) Mid/Guard: 3.95 (23) Right Tackle: 4.10 (18) Right End: 3.66 (24)

Last year’s first-round pick Penei Sewell had an up-and-down rookie season in pass protection, in part because he was asked
to split the season at left and right tackle, but he was a force in the ground game. Sewell blew just three blocks on runs while
regularly showcasing the rare athleticism, power, and effort that made him a top-10 selection. Another full offseason, hopefully
all at one position, should serve him well as a developing pass protector. 🏈 Losing center Frank Ragnow to a foot injury for
most of the year was a major problem for the Lions. Ragnow had taken a major leap in 2020, finishing eighth in blown block
rate among centers and firmly establishing himself as one of the nastiest run blockers at the position. Ragnow being absent from
the lineup had a cascading effect that was partly responsible for the Lions’ drop off in adjusted line yards, power success, and
stuff rate compared to 2020. He was back to 100% by OTAs and will return in 2021. 🏈 Halapoulivaati Vaitai took a big
step forward in 2021, at least in terms of blown blocks. After finishing 35th among right tackles in 2019 and 40th among right
guards in 2020, Vaitai’s blown block rate placed seventh among right guards in 2021. Vaitai did double his blown blocks in the
run game, but that could be a byproduct of Ragnow being out of the lineup, given how important chemistry and communication
are along the interior. 🏈 Left guard Jonah Jackson is still a fairly promising prospect, but he needs to stop playing so high
and find consistency with his hands. 🏈 Left tackle Taylor Decker has a false start problem. In 2020, Decker tied for the
third-most false starts with five. In 2021, despite playing just nine games, Decker accrued four false starts, tied for fourth-most
in the NFL (to be fair, with about a dozen other guys). The only other players with at least four false starts in each of the past
two seasons are D.J. Humphries (Cardinals) and Brian O’Neill (Vikings). 🏈 The Lions were one of just three teams to not
draft any offensive linemen in this class, joining the Dolphins and Steelers.
88 DETROIT LIONS

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Nicholas Williams* 32 DE 17 623 27 3.1% 94 14 6 2 25 48% 98 3.4 86 0.5 1 12 1
Michael Brockers 32 DE 16 622 52 6.3% 30 30 8 5 49 57% 85 3.2 83 1.0 0 6 0
Alim McNeill 22 DT 17 422 40 4.5% -- 28 3 3 37 68% -- 2.8 -- 2.0 1 8 1
Levi Onwuzurike 24 DE 16 396 37 4.5% -- 22 5 1 34 56% -- 2.9 -- 1.0 1 2 1
John Penisini* 25 DT 16 276 15 1.8% -- 10 3 2 14 64% -- 2.0 -- 0.0 1 2 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Charles Harris 27 OLB 17 872 64 7.3% 15 46 14 11 45 78% 24 3.2 72 7.5 9 36 0
Austin Bryant 26 OLB 14 436 30 4.1% 72 25 9 6 24 79% 21 2.3 30 4.5 1 9 0
Julian Okwara 25 OLB 13 362 29 4.3% 68 22 11 4 17 71% 50 3.7 86 5.0 5 12 0
Trey Flowers* 29 OLB 7 304 24 6.6% 23 15 4 3 17 71% 50 3.4 76 1.5 1 5 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Alex Anzalone 28 ILB 14 828 85 11.7% 47 48 9 23 55 64% 21 3.6 28 1.0 1 4 25 52% 33 5.5 22 7 1
Jalen Reeves-Maybin* 27 ILB 15 616 76 9.8% 64 42 9 10 48 54% 55 4.0 50 0.0 1 8 29 66% 8 5.2 19 4 0
Derrick Barnes 23 ILB 17 448 65 7.4% 77 29 6 6 45 49% 67 3.9 46 2.0 0 0 13 31% -- 10.8 -- 2 0
Josh Woods 26 ILB 13 113 21 3.1% -- 11 3 2 17 53% -- 3.4 -- 0.0 2 2 6 50% -- 8.7 -- 0 0
Chris Board 27 ILB 16 336 30 3.9% -- 15 8 3 12 75% -- 4.2 -- 0.0 2 9 12 17% -- 11.2 -- 0 0
Jarrad Davis 28 OLB 9 209 24 4.9% 85 6 0 7 10 50% 62 4.4 67 0.0 0 1 8 25% -- 7.8 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.09 4.55 23 74% 28 12% 32 1.07 9 0.48 3 9.5% 29 28 5.0% 31 26.8% 28 12.4% 25
2020 4.63 4.94 29 67% 17 12% 29 1.32 24 0.68 15 9.7% 26 24 4.9% 27 21.0% 28 9.7% 31
2021 4.48 4.69 30 75% 31 14% 24 1.30 27 0.57 14 11.1% 24 30 5.3% 31 23.6% 24 9.4% 31
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.14 (28) Left Tackle: 5.06 (28) Mid/Guard: 4.67 (27) Right Tackle: 4.55 (23) Right End: 4.07 (13)

Michael Brockers finally started to show signs of decline last season. He looked and played a little lighter than usual and too
often gave up ground in the run game, which is something that has seldom been an issue for him in the past. Brockers also lost
a step as a pass-rusher. He generated just six hurries, his lowest mark since the 2016 season in which he battled multiple lower
body injuries throughout the year. 🏈 Charles Harris’ random career revival doesn’t look like it was just a fluky sack season.
Harris’ 36 hurries tied for 11th among edge rushers, which isn’t elite but is leaps and bounds better than the fringe-rosterable
quality of play Harris had shown the previous two seasons. Harris’ previous career high was 19 hurries during his rookie year
of 2017. Harris was also quietly feisty against the run, showing good awareness, strength, and hustle that came together to
produce a solid stop rate. 🏈 The Lions are losing some of their coverage production at linebacker due to Jalen Reeves-
Maybin’s departure. A career backup and special-teamer, Reeves-Maybin was Detroit’s preferred nickel linebacker alongside
Alex Anzalone last year, showing good eyes and range in order to produce a top-10 coverage success rate. Derrick Barnes or
one of the late-round rookies will need to surprise in coverage this year to replace Reeves-Maybin’s impact in the passing game.
🏈 Sixth-round pick James Houston (Jackson State) provides the Lions with a unique edge/linebacker hybrid. Houston can
run-and-chase well as an off-ball linebacker while showing enough burst and bend to be a bit of a nuisance as a pass-rusher. A
lack of awareness and strength hurt him the most right now, but perhaps a couple years in an NFL building can change that. 🏈
The Lions also picked up Oklahoma State linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez, an excellent college player who may not have the
size to hang in the NFL, in the sixth round. Not only is Rodriguez 5-foot-11 and 232 pounds, but he measured with the ninth-
shortest arms for a linebacker in NFL combine history. Rodriguez has the instincts, athleticism, and aggressiveness of an NFL
starter, but he’ll need to overcome glaring physical issues.
 DETROIT LIONS 89

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Will Harris 27 FS 17 1012 95 10.8% 34 23 10 9 38 24% 62 8.1 51 55 15.1% 6 10.4 36% 72 8.4 53 4 0
Amani Oruwariye 26 CB 14 938 68 9.4% 32 27 13 9 19 47% 36 7.4 63 60 17.8% 64 12.5 50% 59 8.8 70 11 6
Tracy Walker 27 SS 15 882 111 14.3% 8 32 10 14 61 26% 56 8.0 50 27 8.5% 35 13.3 44% 57 11.0 69 6 1
Dean Marlowe* 30 FS 16 700 67 8.1% 63 15 5 9 29 24% 59 7.7 47 21 8.3% 38 11.8 48% 53 8.8 54 2 0
A.J. Parker 24 CB 13 557 57 8.5% -- 27 12 10 13 77% -- 2.9 -- 38 19.0% -- 8.8 55% -- 6.7 -- 7 1
Jerry Jacobs 25 CB 13 536 38 5.6% 79 22 6 5 8 63% 7 6.0 37 36 18.7% 50 13.7 56% 35 8.7 68 7 0
Mike Hughes 25 CB 17 508 51 6.0% 76 18 10 2 6 17% 79 7.0 55 58 31.1% 1 11.7 53% 43 6.8 31 6 1
DeShon Elliott 25 FS 6 305 25 8.6% -- 9 6 7 6 50% -- 6.0 -- 9 6.8% -- 9.9 44% -- 8.1 -- 2 1

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 29 -2.3% 13 22.0% 29 3.3% 19 -6.0% 17 13.2% 22 8.7% 24 24.6% 27
2020 32 21.2% 30 19.4% 28 6.2% 19 12.0% 27 16.3% 28 6.2% 21 46.2% 32
2021 27 18.3% 29 -16.3% 6 -11.0% 7 -11.3% 11 7.9% 17 22.2% 29 38.8% 31

The Lions were one of just two defenses to have three safeties play at least 700 snaps each, the other being the Patriots. (The
Chiefs were also two Daniel Sorensen snaps away.) Since Tracy Walker was the only safety of the three good enough to retain his
starting job, that stat doesn’t exactly say good things about how the Lions judged their own cornerbacks last season. 🏈 Op-
posing offenses put safety Will Harris through every ring of hell last season. He ranked in the bottom 10 in coverage success rate
among safeties while ranking in the top 10 for target rate, joining Seattle’s Ugo Amadi as the only two players to produce such
a catastrophe. It’s no mystery as to why the Lions signed one safety and drafted another in the top 100. 🏈 Free-agent pickup
DeShon Elliott played fairly well in his year-and-a-half as Baltimore’s starting free safety. He isn’t much of a ballhawk, but he is
an assignment-sound player with good overall athleticism, allowing him to keep windows tight and dissuade quarterbacks from
throwing his way. Elliott raises the secondary’s floor, not its ceiling, and that’s OK. The Lions just need competent players back
there. 🏈 Third-round safety selection Kerby Joseph (Illinois) is a bet on flash and potential. In college, he showed impressive
range on the back end and played with an all-or-nothing mentality that sometimes led to outrageous highlight plays. That said,
Joseph’s highwire playstyle came back to bite him plenty, and he also struggled to play under control as a run defender. Thankfully,
Joseph just has to be a depth and rotational player this season. 🏈 Cornerback Amani Oruwariye is Detroit’s discount Trevon
Diggs. For two years running, Oruwariye has posted middle-of-the-pack success rates (52%, 50%) with horrid yards per pass al-
lowed figures (9.6, 8.8). However, Oruwariye added six interceptions in 2021, showing off a quick trigger and higher willingness
to gamble. Another year of development as well as better safety play could help his down-to-down figures, while regression will
likely hurt his turnover numbers. 🏈 Cornerback Mike Hughes is a target magnet. In his only two healthy, qualifying seasons
(2019 and 2021), Hughes has earned the highest target rate in the NFL at around 30% each time. While he did produce relatively
well with the Chiefs on a down-to-down basis last season, he remained a major big-play liability and regularly got abused over the
top. Hughes is still likely an upgrade for Detroit but expect some meltdowns from time to time.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 1.4% 10 4.5 9 -14.0 32 4.5 4 8.3 5 4.0 5 9.2 3
2020 1.9% 11 -5.4 23 -5.7 27 3.6 9 12.2 4 4.9 5 19.4 1
2021 1.3% 10 0.0 16 -0.9 21 2.8 8 2.4 12 2.6 8 -5.3 23

Over the past three seasons, the Lions have finished between 1.3% and 1.9% DVOA, flip-flopping between 10th and 11th place.
🏈 Punter Jack Fox was worth 6.1 points in gross punt value last season. Fox and Seattle’s Michael Dickson are the only two
punters to be worth at least 5.0 points in each of the past two seasons. 🏈 Career journeyman Godwin Igwebuike carved out a
nice role as a kick returner thanks to his raw speed and no-nonsense running style in the open field. He finished ninth in kick return
points last season. 🏈 Kalif Raymond was a fine punt returner in 2020 with the Titans, but took a leap forward in Detroit, finish-
ing fifth in punt return points thanks to top speed and flashes of quickness. 🏈 The Lions cycled through four kickers last year,
two of whom return to the fold in 2022. Austin Seibert took the reins by the time Detroit hit the bye week, but needed hip surgery
midway through the season and missed the rest of the year. Riley Patterson took over from Week 11 onwards, going 13-of-14 on
field goals as a rookie. His only miss was his lone attempt over 50 yards. Seibert is not very proven beyond 50 yards either (career:
2-of-5) so it will be interesting to see if the Lions favor the veteran’s experience or the youngster’s potential.
 Green Bay Packers
2021 record: 13-4 Total DVOA: 11.8% (8) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.3 wins On the Clock (0-5): 8%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.5 (10) Offense: 20.2% (2) Postseason Odds: 55.5% Mediocrity (6-8): 30%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.3 (17) Defense: 3.6% (22) Super Bowl Odds: 9.0% Playoff Contender (9-11): 42%
Average Opponent: -0.1% (19) Special Teams: -4.9% (32) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.2% (16) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 20%

2021: A blizzard and a blocked punt derail a storybook season for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

2022: The Packers chose to go all-in on defense rather than supplement the offense for Rodgers. Will it be enough?

G reen Bay’s Last Dance ended with a crash and a record

scratch. It all seemed so promising at first. Save for get-
ting the rust knocked off by the Saints in Week 1, the Pack-
of Rodgers’ best pass-catchers up and left. Valdes-Scantling
isn’t close to the impact player Adams is, but you’d be hard-
pressed to find many other 6-foot-4 field-stretchers who also
ers were one of the best teams in the league throughout the block at a high level. It’s a niche skill set, sure, but one that
regular season. They eventually won the division and even the had fit so perfectly into the Packers’ scheme. The Packers did
No.1 seed in the NFC, the only seed that gets a bye anymore. their best to draft an MVS clone by selecting North Dakota’s
The heart of the Last Dance movement, Aaron Rodgers and Christian Watson at the top of the second round, but Watson
Davante Adams, again played at an All-Pro level and pro- isn’t expected to match MVS’ work as a blocker, and Rodg-
pelled the offense into the league’s upper echelon. Incomplete ers’ not-so-subtle reluctance with rookie receivers might limit
as the team may have been, by the end of December, it felt whatever he can bring as a pass-catcher in Year 1.
like these Packers might have enough because of those two. It That’s about where the restocking ended for the Packers.
felt like the Rodgers and Adams pairing alone was enough of Neither of their first-round picks were spent on a receiver,
a force multiplier to get this thing done. while their biggest splash in free agency was the NFL’s best-
In the end, it wasn’t. Rodgers and the Packers ran up against traveled mercenary veteran, Sammy Watkins. Before a mid-
the 49ers in the divisional round, a tricky stylistic matchup for dling season as a field-stretcher and intermediate weapon for
the Packers by itself, never mind the snowy conditions that only Baltimore (a role forced upon him in part out of necessity and
further debilitated their passing offense and ramped up the vola- in part because Greg Roman is incompetent) Watkins was a
tility for their league-worst special teams unit. Rodgers couldn’t useful YAC-and-block type for the Chiefs, functioning both
connect with anyone but Adams and Aaron Jones, almost ex- from the slot and outside. He was, at best, the third option
clusively in the short area of the field, and the special teams unit behind a pair of All-Pros, a luxury he will not have in Green
gave up not one but two blocks— one on a field goal attempt at Bay. Not even close.
the end of the first half, and another on a punt that was returned The Packers’ receiving rotation is now Allen Lazard, Ran-
for a touchdown, the only one the 49ers scored that night. The dall Cobb, Watkins, Watson, and whatever they get from sec-
season fell apart in a way that screamed, “It’s not your year.” ond-year Amari Rodgers and Day 3 rookie Romeo Doubs. It’s
Now Adams is gone. Losing that game isn’t the reason for a logjam of No. 3 wide receivers; all useful players with their
his departure, but it makes it all sting even more. The Last own particular flare, but none stand out in a way where the of-
Dance mantra was inspiring in the moment and painful in its fense can be centered around them. They’re a bunch of Robins
conclusion because it really was the last time Adams and Rod- without a Batman.
gers would play together. According to Adams, the driving That’s a new challenge for Matt LaFleur, who has always
force for him asking for a trade and ending up in Las Vegas had Adams in Green Bay. It wasn’t just that Adams could
was actually longevity. Not his, but Rodgers’. The now back- run every route from anywhere and eat 10 targets a game, it
to-back MVP made a stink last offseason about potentially be- was the specific ways in which he meshed with Rodgers that
ing traded or even retiring, and he hasn’t backed off the soft will be missed the most. Adams is a savant on back-shoulder
threat of retirement this offseason either. Adams expressed in throws and one of the best YAC threats on quick screens,
a press conference with the Raiders that he wants to continue both of which Rodgers has established himself the king of.
playing at a high level and achieve greatness for many years The Packers led the NFL with 70 wide receiver and tight end
to come, but he wasn’t positive Rodgers would be around with screens, after all, and Adams caught 26 of them while produc-
him for more than another year or two if he did decide to stick ing the fifth-most DYAR on such passes.
around in Green Bay. That’s a fair assumption for Adams to LaFleur’s solution may lie in the backfield, not the receiver
make of any 38-year-old quarterback, let alone one who can’t room. None of the receivers on the roster come close to Ad-
stop pawing at the idea of retirement. ams’ burst and instincts on screens and other quick passes.
If that wasn’t bad enough, Marquez Valdes-Scantling left Aaron Jones, however, might give something close to that.
for Kansas City a week later in free agency. Just like that, two Jones was called upon as a pass-catcher relentlessly in both
90
 GREEN BAY PACKERS 91

2021 GB DVOA by Week

2022 Packers Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at MIN 7 at WAS 13 at CHI
2 CHI 8 at BUF 14 BYE 40%
3 at TB 9 at DET 15 LAR (Mon.) 20%
4 NE 10 DAL 16 at MIA (Xmas)
0%
5 NYG (U.K.) 11 TEN (Thu.) 17 MIN
6 NYJ 12 at PHI 18 DET -20%

-40%

-60%

the playoff loss and the bizarre prime-time game against Ari- -80%

zona when the Packers’ three best receivers were all out of -100%

the lineup. Even in more normal situations, Jones has been an

effective pass-catcher, both in and out of the backfield. In fact,
Jones earned about 29% of his targets from a receiver align-
ment last season and 23% the year before. It’s possible LaF- The silver lining is that Green Bay’s interior offensive line
leur taps on Jones to be more of a receiver, perhaps deploying was good last season and returns all three intended starters.
both Jones and AJ Dillon on the field at the same time with Center/guard hybrid Lucas Patrick left for Chicago after doing
Dillon as the tailback. Moreover, the Packers ranked a healthy a decent job filling in at center last year, but he would just be
11th place in DVOA on running back screens and 14th in at- a backup behind last year’s original starter, Josh Myers, who
tempts, the latter of which could and should see an uptick in is returning from a pair of leg injuries. If we assume some de-
2022 with both Dillon and Jones. gree of improvement out of second-year guys such as Myers
Uncertainty doesn’t stop with the skill players, unfortunately. and Royce Newman, it’s easy to say that the Packers have a
Left tackle David Bakhtiari still isn’t a sure thing to start the pretty good line without Bakhtiari and a great one with him.
season. The former All-Pro tore his ACL at the end of the 2020 Depleted wide receiver corps and tackle uncertainty be
season and was expected to be healthy enough to play in 2021. darned, the Packers still project as one of the best offenses
As it turns out, Bakhtiari wasn’t ready at all. His knee needed in the league. They will take a slight step back, as any team
to be drained of excess fluid a number of times and doctors would after losing an Adams-caliber player, but Rodgers
discovered additional cartilage damage around November, a alone keeps the team in contention for a top-10 DVOA rating
discovery that required another operation. Bakhtiari ended up while an elite running back duo, reliable offensive line, and
missing all but the final game of the regular season, and he sharp play calling should push them all the way into that tier.
pulled himself from the game before the rest of the starting line- It’s a little tricky to see how the Packers offense is truly
up did. Bakhtiari was then completely inactive for the playoff elite without a stud receiver, though. Without an elite offense,
game against the 49ers despite two more weeks of rest. as Green Bay had last season, the defense will need to take a
Now, with the 2022 season looming, Bakhtiari still does not step forward, maybe two. The Packers defense finished 22nd
appear 100% ready. He sat out of OTAs for health and recov- in DVOA, which wasn’t detrimental to last year’s team but
ery reasons and hopes to be back for training camp. LaFleur won’t be enough for this year’s team. On the one hand, the
mentioned to reporters in mid-June that he expects Bakhtiari Packers made sure to spend premium assets to take the next
will, indeed, be ready for training camp, but also tacked on “... step. On the other hand, their two major additions are rookies,
we did last year as well. Time will tell.” There’s no reason to one of whom plays the increasingly maligned position that is
distrust LaFleur’s statement that Bakhtiari will be ready, but inside linebacker.
it’s hard to brush aside his uncertainty, and perhaps frustra- The Packers spent two first-round picks on players from
tion, with the situation. Georgia’s all-time great defense, selecting linebacker Quay
Green Bay’s other tackle may not be ready for Week 1 either. Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. Not only that
Elgton Jenkins tore his ACL in November and, like Bakhtiari, they are talent upgrades over the players they are replacing,
it’s not clear if he is going to play right away. If both Bakhtiari but their presence, in theory, changes or completes Green
and Jenkins miss time early on, Yosh Nijman would be forced Bay’s scheme in a way that will have residual effects. That
into action just as he was at the end of last year. While the sentiment is particularly true of Walker.
Packers would rather have the top two guys back, Nijman was Defensive coordinator Joe Barry most recently coached
solid and can be enough to hold down the fort. The real issue with the Rams under Brandon Staley before coming to Green
is on the right side, since last year’s starter Billy Turner is Bay. In his first season, Barry showed many of the same prin-
gone. The right tackle job would likely be left for one of a trio ciples as Staley, namely the odd fronts and a smattering of
of rookies: Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, and Rasheed Walker, none two-high pre-snap looks and coverages. He also played with
of whom were right tackles in college. Thankfully, that should lighter personnel and lighter boxes than the NFL average,
not be the situation all year, but it could be a rough first month just like Staley does. The Packers tied for 26th in base per-
or so, depending on who comes back when. sonnel rate (with the Rams) while ranking sixth in using six
92 GREEN BAY PACKERS

or more defensive backs. Naturally, the Packers also finished Alexander has never spent more than 100 or so snaps in the
30th in average box count. They didn’t want to be in base slot during any season in his career, but he has played well
too much, nor did they want to be in nickel if they thought there when asked to and he certainly has the right skills to
they could get away with swapping out a linebacker for a thrive. He has excellent foot quickness, a sharp eye, and all
defensive back. the speed necessary to run across the middle of the field. Pair
In theory, all of that is fine and dandy. It’s certainly the way that with his scrappiness and willingness to tackle, and all the
the league is headed if you can play that way. What the Pack- ingredients for a Pro Bowl-level slot corner are there.
ers must have realized is that they cannot play that way; at For the Packers secondary, upgrading in the slot means
least not to the extreme and not with the front they had. two things. For one, either Alexander or Douglas is a clear
Without a loaded defensive line (read: Aaron Donald), the upgrade over Chandon Sullivan in a vacuum. Sullivan was
Packers weren’t able to get away with stopping the run from fine last season; nothing more, nothing less. Alexander can
their light structure very well. That places a fork in the road: be a top-class slot cornerback even if we haven’t fully seen
go all-out to fix the talent on the line of scrimmage and com- him try it yet. More than that, though, Alexander’s best play
mit to lighter personnel, or bring another linebacker into the is so good that he can ease pressure off those around him, not
fold and fall more in line with standard personnel deployment. unlike the effect Jalen Ramsey has when the Rams kick him
Drafting Wyatt does help fix the defensive line, as might the inside. Alexander is capable of covering any receiver step-for-
signing of Jarran Reed, but drafting Walker is a signal that the step on any route. Nobody can do it every play, of course, but
Packers are leaning towards the norm. Alexander will offer far more of those perfect reps than even
Walker’s selling points are his range, coverage ability, and a solid nickel. Douglas isn’t up to Alexander’s level in that re-
versatility, all of which Krys Barnes lacked. Walker is also gard, but he was surprisingly good last year. He looked much
6-foot-4 and 241 pounds with a 96th-percentile wingspan more fluid than in previous seasons.
(among linebackers since 1999) and has the strength and in- The value in the Alexander-Douglas pairing is that the safe-
stincts to defend the run, all of which Green Bay’s extra de- ties should not feel as pressured to give the slot corner im-
fensive backs lacked when they had to play in dime or “big mediate help and perhaps take themselves out of position to
nickel” situations. He’s the bridge between both worlds; a defend something else too early. The safeties can better pick
bigger-bodied player who can defend the run while still offer- their spots and keep a wider net cast in the back end knowing
ing positive play in the passing game. that Alexander and, to a lesser extent, Douglas can hold out
Now the Packers can more comfortably and more frequent- until the receiver inevitably runs himself right into the safe-
ly play with another linebacker next to De’Vondre Campbell. ties’ zone on the defense’s terms. Likewise, linebackers can
Just by virtue of having a linebacker body in or near the box, feel more confident that receivers will be passed off effec-
as opposed to a defensive back, the Packers’ run defense will tively between zones, allowing them to respond better. Cov-
be better. Walker projects to be a better and rangier run de- erage is a “who can take stress off of whom?” system, and
fender than Barnes anyway. The pass defense should be bet- Green Bay’s upgrades in the slot, on top of their upgrades at
ter too. As much as the Packers like playing out of two-high linebacker, take a lot of stress off everyone else trying to cover
structures, which should continue to be the case, it’s highly over the middle.
valuable to have a linebacker who can cover the second level Of course, all of that cascading value is dependent on the
and be a sort of support system for the pass-rush getting home outside cornerbacks holding up. Alexander, whenever he is
and the secondary picking everyone up down the field effec- asked to play outside, is nothing to worry about. He’ll hold his
tively. Walker was regularly deployed to the passing strength own. Douglas miraculously played the best ball of his career
at Georgia, even walking out to a slot alignment, and asked to last season after signing with the team about halfway through
cover large swaths of ground, both in traditional zone cover- the year, while first-round draftee Eric Stokes Jr. posted a
age and in match coverage. solid, albeit imperfect, rookie season on the other side. In or-
To be clear, Walker was never a ballhawk and didn’t record der for the secondary to take the next step, Douglas will have
any picks in college, but on film, he regularly worked to take to maintain a level of play that was previously foreign, and
away space, condense windows, and contest the catch point. Stokes will need to make some degree of improvement. Both
It was rare to find him out of position at Georgia. His smart are possible; neither are certainties.
and consistent play helped facilitate Georgia’s chaotic, blitz- Let’s start with the more reasonable expectation: Stokes
heavy, two-high structure by taking away short passes and gets better. Statistically, that seems outlandish. Stokes’ 59%
passing off vertical threats properly as the blitzes got home. success rate and 5.3 yards per pass allowed are tied for fourth
There’s another change that will help the middle of the and first, respectively, among the 20 qualifying first-round
Packers pass coverage, but it’s a return rather than an addi- rookie cornerbacks since 2015. Both figures were comfortably
tion. All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander is healthy again af- better than Patrick Surtain’s in Denver, though Surtain did
ter missing the majority of last season with a shoulder injury. snag three additional interceptions. On film, however, Stokes
Alexander doesn’t look to be returning to the outside, though, still has things to work on. His speed and length are fantastic
at least not full-time. Alexander is expected to split time with tools that he used to his advantage, but his patience and foot-
Rasul Douglas in the slot this season, and perhaps be the fa- work ran hot and cold. Considering the latter two traits are
vored man for the position. more about refinement and knowledge, it makes sense that a
 GREEN BAY PACKERS 93

rookie wouldn’t be up to par in those areas. If Stokes can take coach Jerry Gray, who allowed Douglas to regularly pull him
a step forward in those areas—a reasonable assumption for a aside for extra film review and teaching. Gray and Barry are
first-round pick who already played well—the Packers should still around in 2022, so Douglas should again have all the re-
feel more comfortable leaving him in man coverage, which is sources and continuity he needs to play fast and execute.
something 99% of defenses in the history of the sport wished For all of the reasons to be optimistic about the Packers de-
they could do more of. fense, many of them are “ifs” rather than certainties. If Doug-
As for Douglas, one-year wonder seasons are typically las can avoid regression, if Stokes can improve, if a pair of
scary. Douglas has been an on-year, off-year rollercoaster who rookies can structurally change the defense, and so on and so
had never been more than a semi-competent No. 2 in either forth. That uncertainty is why many NFL observers are higher
Philadelphia or Carolina. Douglas had a success rate below on the 2022 Packers defense than our computer projections. In
50% in 2018 (Eagles) and 2020 (Panthers), but above 55% in the event everything does break right, the Packers could be a
2019 (Eagles) and 2021 (Packers). With the Packers, however, top-tier unit, but it’s bold to have that much faith in so many
Douglas was a legit starter on film and a monster in the stat uncertainties, even if you can talk yourself into it and want to
sheet. He plummeted to 5.2 yards per pass, compared to over believe in it all.
8 yards per pass in each of the three previous seasons. Perhaps Whether or not the defense improves that much, the Pack-
elite production like that won’t hold, but there’s anecdotal rea- ers are still primed to contend for the division title. Chicago
son to believe he can still play well. does not have an NFL roster and Detroit is barely starting to
In an interview during the season, Douglas spoke about the look like it has one. Minnesota will present a real challenge
coaching in Green Bay compared to his previous stops, par- for the NFC North , but when it comes down to it, it’s hard not
ticularly in Philadelphia. Douglas said the Eagles defensive to favor Rodgers and the smattering of other stars the Packers
backs would just go and watch clips with a broad lens, but the have in their locker room. The real question is whether or not
exact teaching of details and the tools to play with full confi- the Packers have the horses for postseason football without
dence were missing. In Green Bay, Douglas expressed that he Adams, but we’ll let them speak for themselves when they
felt the teaching of particular concepts and details was better, inevitably get there.
and thus enabled him to play faster and with better instincts.
He was especially effusive in his praise of defensive backs Derrik Klassen

2021 Packers by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at NO L 0% 3 38 229 322 -3 -93% -42% 47% -4% Total DVOA 20.2% 2 3.6% 22
2 DET W 95% 35 17 323 344 2 11% 35% 26% 2% Unadjusted VOA 21.8% 2 2.2% 17
3 at SF W 95% 30 28 353 298 2 52% 45% -10% -2% Weighted Trend 22.5% 2 1.9% 22
4 PIT W 89% 27 17 367 282 1 21% 25% 1% -2% Variance 7.7% 17 6.4% 17
5 at CIN W 91% 25 22 466 367 1 1% 18% -6% -23% Average Opponent 0.3% 16 -1.0% 22
6 at CHI W 92% 24 14 323 277 1 20% 46% 28% 2%
7 WAS W 93% 24 10 304 430 1 18% 14% -5% -1% Passing 36.4% 2 5.9% 16
8 at ARI W 25% 24 21 335 334 3 -2% -6% -7% -4% Rushing 3.5% 8 -0.2% 28
9 at KC L 50% 7 13 301 237 -2 14% -7% -39% -19%
First Down 16.6% 4 5.8% 24
10 SEA W 96% 17 0 393 208 1 40% 5% -38% -2%
Second Down 19.3% 6 11.8% 26
11 at MIN L 94% 31 34 467 408 0 26% 52% 23% -3%
Third Down 28.8% 3 -11.1% 7
12 LAR W 76% 36 28 399 353 2 37% 25% -15% -3%
13 BYE First Half 20.7% 5 7.4% 27
14 CHI W 69% 45 30 439 347 3 11% 55% 14% -29% Second Half 19.7% 3 0.2% 12
15 at BAL W 87% 31 30 346 354 0 8% 34% 23% -2%
16 CLE W 92% 24 22 311 408 4 35% 33% 3% 4% Red Zone 8.6% 9 5.0% 22
17 MIN W 100% 37 10 481 206 0 79% 50% -27% 2% Late and Close 34.3% 3 -15.1% 4
18 at DET L 2% 30 37 378 404 -3 -55% -21% 35% 2%
19 BYE
20 SF L 52% 10 13 263 212 0 4% -13% -48% -31%
94 GREEN BAY PACKERS

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 7-9 6.2 7.6 320 384 -3 -4.5% 17 0.0% 16 5.8% 24 1.3% 14 45.1 23 39.4 21 27.0 16 25.5 28 25.2 28
2018 6-9-1 7.4 7.8 376 400 0 -4.4% 20 11.2% 7 11.6% 29 -4.1% 29 26.2 8 63.5 30 27.6 8 25.8 24 25.2 31
2019 13-3 9.8 9.9 376 313 +12 7.7% 9 6.6% 8 -0.9% 15 0.1% 18 39.5 17 26.2 9 28.1 2 25.5 29 25.5 24
2020 13-3 11.2 11.4 509 369 +7 25.8% 3 29.1% 1 0.5% 17 -2.7% 25 52.1 26 21.0 4 28.1 1 25.2 31 25.3 29
2021 13-4 10.5 10.8 450 371 +13 11.8% 8 20.2% 2 3.6% 22 -4.9% 32 54.4 25 25.6 7 27.6 6 25.5 29 25.1 28

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

GB Offense GB Offense vs. Opponents GB Defense GB Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 61% 6.3 28.0% 31% Base 26% 5.3 12.0% 58% Base 19% 4.6 2.8% 11 66% 5.6 -0.3%
12 30% 5.4 10.0% 53% Nickel 62% 6.3 31.6% 36% Nickel 56% 5.6 5.0% 12 16% 4.8 1.1%
10 5% 7.5 64.6% 21% Dime+ 11% 6.5 12.6% 5% Dime+ 24% 6.2 -0.5% 21 5% 5.2 -4.4%
21 2% 3.8 0.3% 38% Goal Line 1% 0.4 -56.0% 22% 10 3% 8.3 19.9%
13 1% 3.5 -19.6% 82% 13 2% 6.8 29.5%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 34% 26 Form: Single Back 81% 18 Rush 3 2.9% 29 4 DB 19% 27 Play Action 28% 11
Runs, first down 49% 13 Form: Empty Back 12% 6 Rush 4 77.7% 5 5 DB 56% 22 Offensive Motion 53% 6
Runs, second-long 26% 21 Form: Multi Back 7% 18 Rush 5 17.4% 20 6+ DB 24% 6 Avg Box (Off) 6.46 18
Runs, power sit. 48% 30 Pers: 3+ WR 66% 13 Rush 6+ 2.0% 29 Man Coverage 30% 11 Avg Box (Def) 6.08 30
Runs, behind 2H 37% 2 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 31% 14 Edge Rusher Sacks 57.9% 12 CB by Sides 86% 7 Offensive Pace 32.80 31
Pass, ahead 2H 56% 3 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 31 Interior DL Sacks 32.9% 13 S/CB Cover Ratio 29% 12 Defensive Pace 30.78 12
Run-Pass Options 20% 4 Shotgun/Pistol 63% 19 Second Level Sacks 9.2% 27 DB Blitz 3% 32 Go for it on 4th 1.46 5

Green Bay ranked first in offensive DVOA on passes down the middle of the field for the second straight season, though
they throw down the middle less often than the average offense. 🏈 Green Bay’s offense was fourth with just 15 dropped
passes last season. 🏈 The Packers running game showed an odd split of getting more efficient the more men they faced in
the box. Green Bay had -10.3% DVOA with 4.4 yards per carry with a light box (four to six defenders). Against seven men in
the box, the average was a little lower (4.2), but the DVOA was higher at 7.1%. Against eight or nine men in the box, the Pack-
ers gained 4.6 yards per carry with 16.8% DVOA. 🏈 The Packers led the NFL with 75.5% DVOA and 8.7 yards per play
from empty backfields. It was the second straight year Green Bay led the NFL in DVOA from empty backfields. 🏈 Green
Bay didn’t run a play with six offensive linemen all year. 🏈 The Packers were not often trailing, but they didn’t show a
lot of urgency when they did, with the league’s slowest pace (one play every 31.0 seconds) when behind. 🏈 The Packers
used dime personnel roughly half as often as the year before, breaking a streak of five straight years where they ranked first or
second in usage of dime. 🏈 Green Bay went from using man coverage 20% of the time in 2020 (30th) to 30% of the time
in 2021 (11th). 🏈 The Packers had just 89 broken tackles, the fewest of any defense in the NFL. Green Bay was the only
team where no individual defender had more than 10 broken tackles. 🏈 Green Bay’s adjusted sack rate went from 29th on
first and second down (4.8%) to fifth on third and fourth down (10.1%). 🏈 Green Bay had the league’s smallest gap in the
average yardage on plays by the two starting safeties.
 GREEN BAY PACKERS 95

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
A.Rodgers 1510 27.8% 558 3927 7.0 5.9 69.3% 37 4 D.Adams* 423 17.6% 169 123 1553 12.6 4.9 11 73%
J.Love -125 -38.5% 65 388 6.0 6.5 58.1% 2 3 A.Lazard 187 24.8% 60 40 513 12.8 4.4 8 67%
M.Valdes-Scantling* -8 -14.6% 55 26 430 16.5 5.6 3 47%
R.Cobb 117 23.5% 39 28 375 13.4 4.9 5 72%
E.St.Brown* -14 -22.6% 17 9 98 10.9 6.4 0 53%
J.Winfree -61 -68.6% 13 8 58 7.3 3.9 0 62%
Rushing Am.Rodgers -12 -30.4% 8 4 45 11.3 6.0 0 50%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc S.Watkins 1 -12.5% 49 27 394 14.6 4.0 1 55%
AJ Dillon 159 9.7% 187 803 4.3 5 1 63% J.Deguara -3 -8.7% 33 25 245 9.8 8.2 2 76%
A.Jones 131 9.9% 171 799 4.7 4 1 50% R.Tonyan 30 6.1% 29 18 204 11.3 5.8 2 62%
P.Taylor -2 -11.0% 23 89 3.9 1 0 65% M.Lewis -17 -15.6% 28 23 214 9.3 6.3 0 82%
A.Rodgers 21 5.8% 21 110 5.2 3 2 - A.Jones 97 11.9% 65 52 391 7.5 7.9 6 80%
K.Hill -4 -18.5% 10 24 2.4 0 0 30% AJ Dillon 110 36.5% 37 34 313 9.2 9.1 2 92%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Royce Newman RG 25 17/16 1084 5 3.0 13 9 Yosuah Nijman LT 26 17/8 590 3 3.5 15 7
Jon Runyan LG 25 17/16 1053 0 2.5 7 6 Elgton Jenkins LT 27 8/8 496 4 2.5 10 0
Lucas Patrick* C/G 29 17/13 911 5 1.0 6 6 Dennis Kelly* RT 32 10/4 305 2 0.5 2 1
Billy Turner* RT 31 13/13 810 4 1.0 10 7 Josh Myers C 24 6/6 293 0 0.0 3 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.47 4.63 5 54% 27 17% 6 1.28 9 0.69 20 10.8% 22 36 6.4% 10 29.2% 12 12.3% 10 44
2020 5.03 4.85 5 66% 19 14% 1 1.37 5 1.04 5 9.1% 14 21 5.0% 6 22.2% 8 6.5% 1 26
2021 4.39 4.79 3 74% 6 13% 3 1.21 13 0.53 20 9.4% 10 33 5.1% 6 21.2% 4 10.2% 3 27
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.49 (12) Left Tackle: 3.46 (30) Mid/Guard: 4.90 (2) Right Tackle: 4.37 (13) Right End: 5.98 (4)

Losing left tackle David Bakhtiari for the 2021 season only dropped the Packers from first to third in pass blown block rate as
a unit. That’s not a suggestion that Bakhtiari is overrated, but rather a testament to how well Elgton Jenkins and Yosuah Nijman
played in his place, as well as how well the others held their own (not to mention how quickly Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out
before anyone can blow a block anyway). 🏈 Left guard Jon Runyan Jr. was one of just four linemen to play over 1,000 snaps
without recording a single penalty last season. He didn’t record any penalties in 160 snaps as a rookie in 2020, either. While he
may not be the flashiest guard around, he doesn’t cause any unnecessary headaches for others. 🏈 Center Josh Myers is best
known for being selected one pick ahead of Creed Humphrey, but he turned in a solid rookie campaign of his own when healthy.
Myers is athletic and smart, playing his best ball when given space to operate. Myers registered a blown block once every 73.3
snaps, which would have ranked in the low teens among centers had he played enough to qualify. His development in 2022 will
hinge on getting stronger and playing with a little more violence and confidence at the point of attack. 🏈 2021 fourth-round
guard Royce Newman was a nice surprise. He started out of the gate and finished middle-of-the-pack in blown block rate, both
impressive achievements for a mid-round rookie. Newman is a quick, nimble mover who took to the Packers’ excellent offen-
sive line coaching quite well. 🏈 Third-round rookie Sean Rhyan (UCLA) is best known for holding his own against fifth
overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux last season. Rhyan has short arms and sometimes struggles to convert his combine athleticism
to the field, but he shows impressive anchor and overall strength. The good news is that both of Rhyan’s primary issues could
be muted with a move to guard, something the Packers regularly do with their young linemen. (Rhyan is currently listed at both
spots on Green Bay’s team website.) 🏈 Fourth-round tackle Zach Tom (Wake Forest) is an athletic marvel. At 6-foot-4
and 304 pounds, Tom scored in at least the 92nd percentile in the 10-yard split, 40-yard dash, broad jump, vertical jump, and
3-cone drill. Better yet, Tom finished his career as a left tackle after initially starting at center, giving him rare experience and
flexibility. Tom is as exciting as a mid-round offensive line pick gets. 🏈 Seventh-round tackle Rasheed Walker (Penn State)
is an athletic ball of clay. He moves well out of his stance and has quick feet to mirror opposing pass-rushers. Walker needs a
lot of work with his hand placement and tendency to play off-balance, but there are some workable tools there.
96 GREEN BAY PACKERS

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Kenny Clark 27 DT 16 782 48 6.3% 31 37 10 6 40 80% 11 2.4 38 4.0 11 35 0
Dean Lowry 28 DE 17 674 46 5.6% 46 30 9 3 35 57% 85 2.5 48 5.0 3 13 4
Kingsley Keke* 26 DE 12 393 26 4.5% 71 17 7 1 18 56% 90 3.4 91 2.5 2 10 2
Tyler Lancaster* 28 DE 16 319 31 4.0% -- 22 3 1 31 71% -- 2.6 -- 0.0 0 3 0
Tedarrell Slaton 25 DT 17 255 23 2.8% -- 10 2 0 19 42% -- 4.3 -- 1.0 0 4 0
Jarran Reed 30 DT 17 713 44 5.2% 59 29 8 3 39 64% 72 3.4 89 2.5 10 19 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Preston Smith 30 OLB 16 689 40 5.2% 50 31 17 6 24 71% 47 1.9 20 9.0 8 29 0
Rashan Gary 25 OLB 16 681 46 6.0% 35 35 16 0 34 68% 69 2.3 36 9.5 17 45 0
Jonathan Garvin 23 OLB 16 395 19 2.5% -- 10 3 2 13 54% -- 4.1 -- 1.5 4 12 0
Whitney Mercilus* 32 OLB 10 312 17 3.2% 88 14 7 1 13 77% 29 2.8 59 4.0 1 7 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
De'Vondre Campbell 29 ILB 16 988 150 19.5% 5 72 23 5 81 49% 65 4.9 79 2.0 4 7 49 53% 29 4.4 7 5 2
Krys Barnes 24 ILB 16 527 83 10.8% 55 41 10 9 41 46% 73 4.0 49 1.0 0 4 26 46% 46 7.1 48 4 0
Oren Burks* 27 ILB 17 205 26 3.2% -- 12 4 5 13 46% -- 5.2 -- 0.5 1 3 9 44% -- 5.4 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.87 4.96 31 71% 27 13% 31 1.32 27 0.84 22 12.4% 19 41 7.5% 12 34.8% 4 15.8% 9
2020 4.39 4.61 24 70% 24 13% 25 1.10 8 0.68 14 10.5% 23 41 7.5% 10 22.8% 25 13.7% 14
2021 4.28 4.61 26 69% 18 12% 31 1.25 21 0.38 3 7.9% 32 39 6.3% 20 27.5% 9 17.1% 6
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.22 (30) Left Tackle: 4.32 (17) Mid/Guard: 4.66 (26) Right Tackle: 4.34 (19) Right End: 4.63 (20)

Rashan Gary finished third in the NFL with 45 hurries last season, but it’s worth noting that the Packers used a regular ro-
tation to help keep him fresh. Among pass-rushers with at least 40 hurries, Gary’s 686 total snaps were the fewest by about
150. 🏈 Outside linebacker Preston Smith’s pressure production has been a rollercoaster since joining Green Bay. In 2019,
he earned 35 hurries, but that number fell to just 11 in 2020 before skyrocketing back up to 29 in 2021. His run defense has
consistently improved, though. Smith’s average tackle was at 3.3 yards back in 2019, but he has steadily improved that mark to
2.9 in 2020 and 1.9 last year. That’s especially important with Gary, who isn’t yet as complete in run defense, on the other side.
🏈 Linebacker Krys Barnes ultimately lost his starting job because of coverage struggles. In each of the past two seasons, he
has posted a sub-50% coverage success rate while allowing over 7 yards per attempt, picking off zero passes in the process.
He is better off as a run-defense specialist and backup. 🏈 De’Vondre Campbell stunned the league last season. Campbell
was quietly good in Atlanta during the early years of the Dan Quinn era, serving mostly as a strongside linebacker who could
use his length against tight ends and occasionally on the edge. The Packers’ defense put Campbell in the middle and unlocked
him more to play in space. Green Bay’s poor interior line hurt Campbell’s run defense figures, but his performance was stellar,
showing the range to get to the perimeter as well as the nastiness to come up and take on blocks effectively. Moreover, Camp-
bell’s 53% success rate in coverage tied for his best ever, and his 4.4 yards per pass allowed was the lowest mark of his career.
🏈 Defensive lineman Jarran Reed isn’t a complete player anymore, but he is still a quality pass-rusher. Reed earned 19 hurries
in 2021 and another 17 in 2020, using his explosiveness to terrorize opposing guards and centers. Just don’t expect his anchor
to hold up down after down in the run game. 🏈 Kenny Clark was a one-man wrecking crew along the interior last year.
Clark far outpaced his teammates in hurries, tying for third (with Cam Heyward) among all interior players, falling short of
only Aaron Donald and Chris Jones. That is special company. 🏈 Having Georgia’s Devonte Wyatt alongside Kenny Clark
instantly gives the Packers one of the most explosive interior duos in the NFL. Wyatt is a stout figure with a nuclear first step,
allowing him to play anywhere from nose to 4i and affect the backfield just the same from every alignment. 🏈 Fifth-rounder
Kingsley Enagbare (South Carolina) fits well into Green Bay’s long, powerful edge archetype. He has an 87th percentile wing-
span, decent explosiveness, and a relentless motor. However, he has a poor SackSEER rating of 17.0%, in part because he had
just 4.5 sacks in 12 games as a senior.
 GREEN BAY PACKERS 97

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Adrian Amos 29 FS 17 1048 101 12.4% 19 25 7 8 39 26% 58 8.3 54 47 10.6% 25 11.3 53% 43 5.7 15 8 2
Darnell Savage 25 SS 17 1038 72 8.8% 56 20 8 10 27 11% 73 10.5 72 35 8.0% 43 13.4 51% 48 9.1 56 9 2
Eric Stokes 23 CB 16 935 69 9.0% 39 25 8 5 8 25% 66 5.5 31 93 23.5% 17 13.7 59% 19 5.3 11 14 1
Chandon Sullivan* 26 CB 17 826 34 4.2% 80 13 10 8 3 33% 54 3.7 8 45 12.9% 78 10.9 49% 63 8.9 75 4 3
Rasul Douglas 27 CB 12 680 65 11.3% 6 26 11 6 17 24% 70 9.8 74 65 22.6% 21 13.0 62% 15 5.2 9 13 5
Kevin King* 27 CB 10 303 30 6.3% -- 12 5 1 8 25% -- 7.5 -- 22 17.1% -- 11.8 50% -- 9.2 -- 3 1
Henry Black* 25 FS 17 262 26 3.2% -- 8 4 6 9 44% -- 6.3 -- 19 17.1% -- 9.0 32% -- 10.5 -- 2 1

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 9 1.4% 15 -29.7% 3 -12.8% 9 -12.6% 12 -13.0% 6 9.8% 26 -17.0% 4
2020 15 -11.1% 10 10.6% 24 -20.0% 6 -2.4% 15 -8.4% 7 -12.0% 8 15.3% 27
2021 16 -10.7% 7 -16.2% 7 -29.5% 3 -32.2% 2 -12.3% 4 20.2% 28 1.5% 23

Cornerback Eric Stokes’ 13.7-yard average depth of target ranked 11th among qualifying cornerbacks. That’s a lot of explo-
sive play potential for a rookie to have to defend, yet Stokes handled it fairly well, showcasing elite speed, great length, and
sharp ball skills. He got beat badly a few times, no doubt, but he more than held his own for a rookie. 🏈 Hype surrounding
safety Darnell Savage seemed to die down last year, but that shouldn’t be the case. Savage played well despite how difficult
Green Bay’s scheme was on safeties, slightly improving both his success rate and yards per pass allowed. Savage recorded
fewer interceptions and had one or two painfully memorable moments, such as the Ja’Marr Chase touchdown that went right
under his arm, and that polluted his image more than it should have. 🏈 On a related note, both of Green Bay’s safeties made
their average tackle much further down the field and recorded fewer stops in 2021 compared to 2020. A lot of that just has to
do with going from Mike Pettine’s aggressive defense that featured more single-high opportunities in 2020 to Joe Barry’s two-
high, light-box approach last year. 🏈 Despite quality play from Douglas and Stokes, last year’s nickel Chandon Sullivan
had the second-lowest target rate among qualifying corners. Sullivan is mediocre on film and, at least last year, worse by the
metrics, so it’s a tricky stat to explain beyond praising the safeties for helping him out over the top. He signed with Minnesota
in the offseason. 🏈 Fifth-round pick Tariq Carpenter (Georgia Tech) is a safety/linebacker hybrid. He primarily played
safety in college, serving as an enforcer and low-area zone defender, but flirted with a move to linebacker during the pre-draft
process, which makes sense for a 6-foot-3, 230-pound player. Either way, Carpenter is likely a special-teamer while he tries to
find a role on defense.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.1% 18 6.9 7 -0.4 19 -1.2 17 0.2 18 -4.8 28 -6.1 26
2020 -2.7% 25 8.8 5 -2.7 22 -4.6 28 -11.8 29 -3.3 24 -3.8 20
2021 -4.9% 32 -12.7 32 -2.6 24 -6.5 31 1.5 17 -5.5 30 -6.3 25

Many Green Bay fans believe they watched a historically bad special teams unit in 2021. They did not. The Packers may
have finished last in special teams DVOA during the regular season, but it was the best last-place mark for a special teams unit
in DVOA history. The Packers weren’t really horrendous … until the playoffs, when they had the worst special teams game
any team had all season at the worst possible time. 🏈 The Packers signed punter Pat O’Donnell away from the rival Bears
for two years at $4 million ($1.6 million guaranteed). O’Donnell is one of five punters to produce positive gross value in each
of the past three seasons. It’s not the sexiest accomplishment, but there is some comfort in having a punter with that degree of
consistency. 🏈 Kicker Mason Crosby was, flatly, horrific last season. Going 13-for-21 on field goals of 30 to 49 yards is
simply unacceptable in today’s NFL. Crosby will have camp competition from rookie Gabe Brkic, an undrafted free agent out
of Oklahoma who had already been signed and cut by Minnesota before the Packers picked him up in June. 🏈 Amari Rodg-
ers finished last season with the fifth-worst punt return value in the NFL. He did nothing as a wide receiver, so it’s concerning
that his only area of contribution as a rookie went as poorly as it did. That said, Rodgers mentioned this offseason that he cut
weight and body fat in order to get quicker, which could help. He will still need to show more discipline with respect to when
he should call for a fair catch, though. 🏈 Keep an eye out for running back Kylin Hill to retake the starting kick returner job
when he is healthy. He was the lead man last season before missing the second half of the year with injury. Hill wasn’t particu-
larly effective, but the Packers may prefer his downhill style and balance to Rodgers’ frenetic, volatile style.
 Houston Texans
2021 record: 4-13 Total DVOA: -24.3% (28) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.9 wins On the Clock (0-5): 19%
Pythagorean Wins: 4.0 (30) Offense: -22.0% (30) Postseason Odds: 36.2% Mediocrity (6-8): 41%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.7 (10) Defense: 3.6% (23) Super Bowl Odds: 2.9% Playoff Contender (9-11): 31%
Average Opponent: 1.6% (7) Special Teams: 1.3% (9) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -2.2% (29) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 9%

2021: Let’s hire a 65-year-old head coach with no experience to bring us into the future.

2022: Let’s hire a 64-year-old head coach with tons of experience to bring us into the future.

W hat’s it going to take to prevent 2023 Houston Texans

head coach Josh McCown? We might have already
had 2022 Houston Texans head coach Josh McCown if not
At 64 years old, Smith will be the fourth-oldest head coach
in the league behind Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, and Andy
Reid. That’s a hard sell as a “this is leading our franchise to
for the Brian Flores lawsuit, which would have made firing a the future” type of move.
minority coach for a white former player with no professional To Smith’s credit, the Houston defense did improve from a
coaching experience an incredibly bad look. Flores himself unit that ranked 30th in DVOA during 2020 to one that ranked
might have been Houston’s preferred option before the suit— 23rd in 2021, but even that came from beating expectations
he was the Texans’ first interview—but teams don’t interview early in the season and petering off over the second half. Some
out-of-the-box candidates with no experience multiple times of that decline came from a midseason adjustment that didn’t
unless they think hiring that candidate might be a good idea. completely help the team.
This comes after the Texans laid the groundwork on a po- Before Houston’s Week 10 bye, the Texans looked like a
tential future McCown hiring by interviewing him last offsea- typical Smith-led defense with a ton of Cover-2—nearly a
son before they hired David Culley. One of the other problems quarter of snaps and the second-highest rate in that span. After
of hiring McCown is that no one else wants to hire him to the bye, the Texans still used the fourth-highest rate of Cov-
give him the experience as an offensive coordinator or quar- er-2 but shifted to more single-high and led the league using
terbacks coach or even offensive assistant which would then Cover-1 on nearly 40% of plays (37%).
give the Texans some sort of reasoning to hire McCown. The shift wasn’t exactly about coverages but was more in-
The McCown situation doesn’t have to completely be about fluenced by wanting to put more resources into the box to stop
McCown specifically, but that entire process leads to the big- the run. The Texans went from stacking the box with eight or
ger question around the Texans. What exactly is the end goal more defenders at an already high eighth-highest rate before
here? What is this organization trying to be? their bye to the third highest after as they also shifted to a sin-
Culley was never perceived to be the long-term answer gle-high pre-snap look on 56% of plays. They dropped from
when he was hired and he was essentially slated to be a bridge using a light box of six or fewer defenders on 51% of snaps
head coach. The problem is that the Texans haven’t identi- down to 42% after the bye. Houston’s run defense improved
fied where that bridge is leading, and they might have just with the shift (23rd in DVOA to 17th) but at the expense of the
changed the architect responsible for building the bridge to pass defense (14th to 27th) and the overall defense dropped
the unknown. Even if McCown wasn’t the No. 1 target—he from 17th in DVOA during the first half of the season to 24th
was one of three reported finalists along with Flores and Ea- in the second.
gles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon—it’s clear that Even as Smith moved away from Cover-2, it was less a
Lovie Smith wasn’t Plan A … or B … or C. change to spice up something Smith had run for nearly two
Smith, unlike Culley, has an extended resume as a head decades. Instead, it was due to the football guy logic to take
coach with the Bears, Buccaneers, and Illinois. Those last a player out of coverage and put him in the box to stop the
stops were unsuccessful, to put it kindly, and as highlighted run. The Texans didn’t even do what most modern two-high
in last year’s Houston chapter, the benefit of Smith as the de- defenses have done by showing two-high pre-snap and rotat-
fensive coordinator under Culley was having his experience ing down to a single-high coverage. There were few pre-snap
without all the added responsibilities of being a head coach. disguises or post-snap rotations. What you saw from the Tex-
Smith was 17-39 in five years as head coach of the Fighting ans is what you got.
Illini after he won eight games in two seasons with the Buc- That could bleed into the offense, too. Multiple times dur-
caneers in 2014 and 2015. Those Buccaneers teams went from ing his introductory press conference, Smith mentioned the
19th in DVOA during the final year under Greg Schiano in importance of and emphasis on the run game. Last season, the
2013 to 29th and 21st in the two seasons with Smith. Perform- Texans had the 12th-highest run rate on early downs. They
ing at or under the Schiano line isn’t something that is going also had the league’s worst rushing DVOA overall and on first
to lead a resumé. down. On second down, they improved all the way to 31st. Of-
98
 HOUSTON TEXANS 99

2021 HOU DVOA by Week

2022 Texans Schedule 80%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 60%
40%
1 IND 7 at LV 13 CLE
20%
2 at DEN 8 TEN 14 at DAL
3 at CHI 9 PHI (Thu.) 15 KC 0%

4 LAC 10 at NYG 16 at TEN (Sat.) -20%

5 at JAX 11 WAS 17 JAX -40%
6 BYE 12 at MIA 18 at IND -60%
-80%
-100%
fensive coordinator Tim Kelly is gone, replaced by Pep Ham- -120%
ilton, who served as the quarterbacks coach in 2021. Hamilton -140%

hasn’t been an offensive coordinator since 2013 through 2015

with the Indianapolis Colts, though he turned down other of-
fers to stay in Houston. He was Chicago’s quarterbacks coach
under Smith from 2007 to 2009 for Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, completely out of character for Mills. During his final col-
and Jay Cutler. In 2020, Hamilton was the quarterbacks coach lege season, Mills threw 70% of his passes within 10 yards
for the Los Angeles Chargers during Justin Herbert’s rookie of the line, the highest rate among the quarterbacks drafted in
season. Smith called keeping Hamilton a “must” while putting the first three rounds of 2021. There were also mixed results
together his staff. when Mills did go deep last year. He was 27th in DVOA on
Hamilton’s main goal this year will be to figure out what intermediate passes and 14th on deep throws.
the Texans have in quarterback Davis Mills. Mills was a 2021 The Texans could open up the offense a bit more to spread
third-round pick but Houston’s first selection in the draft. If the defense and create room for yards after the catch. In theo-
there is a positive from Houston’s 2021 season, it’s that Mills ry, that could work with how often Mills worked the middle of
exceeded expectations as a rookie third-rounder and had the the field last season, but that might not be how Hamilton envi-
second-best DVOA among the 2021 rookie quarterbacks. sions the offense. During his last run with the Colts, Hamilton
However, that still only placed him 24th among all quarter- had a relatively pass-heavy offense (fifth in early-down pass
backs at -8.7%. There were also a ton of empty calories in rate in those seasons) but it was built around heavier forma-
Mills’ play. tions and play-action. It also featured Andrew Luck, which
Mills was 13th among quarterbacks in completion percent- makes a pass-heavy offense a little easier to call.
age but just 23rd among 34 qualified passers in success rate. Turning Mills into a boot-action quarterback could be part
He also had the fourth-worst failed completion rate among of the solution. Mills didn’t leave the pocket often and ran just
those quarterbacks, which includes any completed pass that 30 designed boots, which ranked 20th among quarterbacks,
fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on sec- but he was a rare quarterback with more yards per play and
ond down, or 100% on third or fourth down. The only quarter- better DVOA outside the pocket than in it.
backs worse were Daniel Jones, Tyler Huntley, and Ben Ro- Hamilton has reportedly been installing a new offense dur-
ethlisberger. Just 38.8% of Mills’ completions went for 10 or ing the offseason, but he was already the quarterbacks coach
more yards, better than only Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, and and passing game coordinator, so it’s unclear how much of
Tua Tagovailoa. the passing structure will actually change. The talking points
With an emphasis on not turning the ball over, Mills was from both Hamilton and players this offseason have focused
on the early-career Derek Carr plan, playing like a force field on an improvement in the run game.
prevented passes from traveling further than 10 yards past the While the Texans need to figure out what they have in Mills,
line of scrimmage. Nearly three-quarters (74.7%) of Mills’ they also need to figure out the rest of the roster. This was not
passes came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, a rate a young team in 2021. Given the overall profile and expecta-
higher than only Roethlisberger and Goff in 2021. Mills occa- tions for Houston, one would expect this to be a rebuilding
sionally passed up deeper throws to hit open shorter options, team filled with young players seeing playing time in the hope
which led to a low average depth of target and many of those of eventual development but that wasn’t the case. The Tex-
failed completions. ans had the 10th-oldest roster in the league by snap-weighted
Another problem was that Mills and the Texans weren’t all age, with the eighth-oldest offense. Compare that to the other
that good at creating yards after the catch on those shorter teams that ended the 2021 season with top-five draft picks.
throws. Mills’ 8.2 average yards after the catch behind the line The Jaguars (27th), Lions (32nd), Jets (25th), and Giants
ranked 22nd among quarterbacks and his 3.0 average yards (22nd) were all among the league’s youngest teams. No one is
after the catch on short passes (1 to 9 yards) ranked 33rd and suggesting those are model franchises for roster-building but
above only Jacoby Brissett (2.8). at least where they are makes some kind of sense.
More aggression could be a coaching point for Mills to Last offseason, Houston signed a number of veteran free
develop in Year 2, but his rookie year plan of attack wasn’t agents to one-year deals just to get NFL-caliber talent in the
100 HOUSTON TEXANS

building. Players such as Rex Burkhead were brought in and The Texans were forced (by their own hand) to resort to
found significant roles. At 31 years old, Burkhead led the team veteran additions in part because of the high draft picks traded
in rushing attempts. Despite all the talk of how the run game away for left tackle Laremy Tunsil. That trade cost Houston
needs to improve, he was brought back on a two-year exten- their first-round pick in 2020 and their first two picks in 2021.
sion this offseason. Burkhead led five Houston running backs Bringing in top-tier young talent wasn’t exactly an option.
with at least 35 carries in yards per carry at 3.5. 32-year-old The Los Angeles Rams proved this past season that teams can
Mark Ingram was second on the team in carries after he was build around the right stars in the right environment by supple-
signed last offseason but was traded to the Saints before the menting the roster with specific role players drafted after the
deadline. first round. But Houston did not have the right environment
The Texans doubled down on that veteran approach this and all the stars were gone by the time 2021 rolled around.
past offseason with the likes of Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, DeAndre Hopkins was traded, as was Jadeveon Clowney. J.J.
Steven Nelson, and A.J. Cann. Each of those players can pro- Watt was released, Deshaun Watson was out, and Tunsil only
vide upgrades over what had been on the roster. With enough played five games due to injury.
of those players in place, this Texans team might not even Tunsil is the last man standing and that could be in doubt.
be that bad during the upcoming season. Because of all the He still has two years remaining on the three-year extension
veterans on the roster, there are few actual holes. There’s no he signed after the trade to Houston—one that was backload-
unit like the Bears’ wide receivers or Giants’ secondary for ed for the overall value but has no guaranteed salary in 2023
the Texans, so they’ve got that going for them, which is nice. against an $18.5-million salary and $35.2-million cap hit.
Our projections have them around the range of the other He’s looking for a new contract, held out of OTAs, and has
teams in the AFC South—probably not contenders but also consistently been floated around as a trade candidate.
not the worst team in the league. That would be a massive Parting ways with Watson was supposed to be the kickstart
improvement over what the Texans have put on the field over for an actual rebuild with a haul of draft picks in return but
the past two seasons. But while there are few holes on this even that turned into less of a clean break after it was reported
roster, there are also few actual building blocks to project any by Jenny Vrentas of the New York Times that a membership at
sustained success. The Houstonian used for some of Watson’s massages was set
Take a look at the Texans’ roster and try to figure out who up through the Texans and that Watson was provided an NDA
is going to be on this team in 2024. At its most generous, by a member of the team’s security staff. The Texans have
that list isn’t very long and doesn’t produce many inspiring since been added to the civil lawsuits against the quarterback.
names outside of the most recent draft class. The list of veter- Houston’s draft was also a mixed bag in process. The Tex-
ans under contract for 2024 includes Brandin Cooks. End of ans selected LSU cornerback Derek Stingley with the third
list. Cooks, based on his extension signed this past offseason, overall pick to take a chance on his upside after limited play-
will have a $24-million cap hit that season. The next-highest ing time over the past two seasons. At his best, Stingley was
veteran cap number for the 2024 season is a $3-million cap an exceptional man corner in 2019. On the draft day call cap-
charge for Maliek Collins when he’s not scheduled to be on tured on video, Smith asked Stingley if he was up for follow-
the roster due to the void year added to the two-year deal he ing No. 1 receivers on every play, which could be the best use
signed this past offseason. of Stingley, though a tough ask for a rookie, and a change of
Additions like Hughes and Addison can be useful as pieces approach for the typically zone-heavy Smith.
to place around the core of a roster that needs a boost for some Houston traded back with their second first-round pick and
complementary roles. But in Houston, those players are the selected Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green. Then they wildly
core. The foundation of this roster is mostly made up of these overpaid to add a piece to the passing game, paying the high-
veterans on short deals and for the second offseason, it’s a est premium for a draft-day trade per AV charts by giving up
strategy that lends itself to repetition. One-year deals come picks 68, 108, and 124 to move up to pick 44 and select Ala-
and one-year deals go. bama wide receiver John Metchie in the second round. This
There aren’t even many young developmental fliers or rec- comes a year after the Texans made a similar pricey trade to
lamation projects brought in that could bring upside. 26-year- move up in the third round for receiver Nico Collins. Metchie
old Tavierre Thomas might be the best example as a player is coming off a torn ACL suffered in December and was a
who blossomed into a productive slot corner in 2021 after clear No. 2 behind Jameson Williams when both were on the
three years of mostly special teams work with the Browns, but field in 2021.
he’s an exception in both acquisition and development. Houston is still set up with multiple high draft picks over the
All of these veteran additions might be able to project some next few years, including two first-round picks in both 2023
form of competency in record or on-field play, but the Tex- and 2024. Should Davis Mills not take a significant enough
ans are currently shooting for competency for the sake of not Year 2 leap, the Texans could use those picks to trade up for
looking incompetent. In fairness to Houston, that low bar a quarterback in a draft class perceived to be better than this
might be an important one to clear. This is a franchise that year’s. That comes with its own potential complications. The
has squandered a ton of goodwill and star power within the Texans are already one of five teams with multiple first-round
past few years. Even the attempted addition of stars has raised picks for the 2023 draft, all of which could be in the quarter-
problems for Houston’s future. back market. Given the Texans have made the short-term ef-
 HOUSTON TEXANS 101

fort to add veterans and be more competent on the field, they than the known of what the Texans have been as an organiza-
could be putting themselves at a disadvantage for draft capital tion recently.
against those other teams. The Houston roster looks like it was built with the goal of
Past mistakes have caused the Texans to purposely shoot being included in the “in the hunt” TV graphics by the time
for the middle in 2022. The results might look better on paper Week 12 rolls around. The short-term planning leaves a lot
but they’re not really leading anywhere. The draft class could of questions about the long-term and a future in the hands
develop some stars in the secondary with Stingley and versa- of Lovie Smith—at least until it’s finally time for franchise
tile safety Jalen Pitre, but any future vision for this roster is savior Josh McCown.
currently a completely blank slate. Maybe that’s enough to
sell as progress because the unknown at least gives more hope Dan Pizzuta

2021 Texans by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 JAX W 98% 37 21 449 395 3 4% -8% -9% 3% Total DVOA -22.0% 30 3.6% 23
2 at CLE L 37% 21 31 302 355 0 -22% 4% 13% -13% Unadjusted VOA -21.6% 30 6.4% 25
3 CAR L 7% 9 24 193 407 0 -47% -30% 14% -3% Weighted Trend -20.2% 30 4.9% 25
4 at BUF L 0% 0 40 109 450 -4 -131% -123% 7% 0% Variance 15.8% 32 4.8% 13
5 NE L 43% 22 25 360 352 1 9% 15% -18% -24% Average Opponent -1.7% 8 0.6% 13
6 at IND L 0% 3 31 353 388 -3 -55% -30% 27% 1%
7 at ARI L 0% 5 31 160 397 0 -49% -49% 8% 9% Passing -8.6% 29 11.1% 22
8 LAR L 1% 22 38 323 467 -1 -34% -21% 21% 7% Rushing -33.2% 32 -4.9% 22
9 at MIA L 13% 9 17 272 262 1 -23% -55% -30% 2%
First Down -28.9% 32 -5.4% 11
10 BYE
Second Down -27.5% 30 13.1% 29
11 at TEN W 98% 22 13 190 420 5 26% -12% -35% 4%
Third Down -4.2% 19 7.0% 23
12 NYJ L 57% 14 21 202 266 0 -46% -74% -31% -2%
13 IND L 0% 0 31 141 389 -1 -92% -81% 12% 1% First Half -23.4% 31 2.6% 21
14 SEA L 1% 13 33 380 453 0 -29% -3% 35% 8% Second Half -20.6% 27 4.8% 20
15 at JAX W 94% 30 16 281 296 -1 -2% -20% 11% 30%
16 LAC W 92% 41 29 437 417 3 27% 34% 6% -1% Red Zone -26.7% 30 2.6% 20
17 at SF L 0% 7 23 222 416 0 -32% -22% 8% -2% Late and Close -37.5% 32 4.7% 20
18 TEN L 11% 25 28 353 405 0 -17% 16% 37% 3%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 4-12 5.5 5.4 338 436 -12 -18.0% 26 -10.1% 24 3.4% 19 -4.5% 26 60.7 27 45.6 25 26.1 30 26.0 18 26.1 8
2018 11-5 10.3 9.5 402 316 +13 10.4% 11 -2.8% 19 -9.7% 5 3.5% 5 42.5 21 42.8 24 25.5 32 26.7 9 25.7 20
2019 10-6 7.8 7.7 378 385 0 -2.2% 16 0.6% 17 5.6% 22 2.9% 5 50.5 23 27.7 12 26.3 21 26.6 11 26.0 11
2020 4-12 6.1 5.2 384 464 -9 -12.6% 24 2.7% 13 14.3% 30 -1.0% 21 15.5 3 42.7 17 26.9 12 26.3 14 26.1 15
2021 4-13 4.0 4.4 280 452 +3 -24.3% 28 -22.0% 30 3.6% 23 1.3% 9 53.4 24 28.9 8 27.1 8 26.4 16 26.8 5

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

HOU Offense HOU Offense vs. Opponents HOU Defense HOU Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 59% 5.2 -14.2% 26% Base 23% 4.1 -17.1% 65% Base 32% 6.1 11.8% 11 58% 6.0 -1.1%
12 26% 4.2 -29.4% 59% Nickel 64% 4.7 -25.0% 34% Nickel 67% 6.1 -0.5% 12 21% 6.0 1.6%
13 6% 4.8 2.4% 66% Dime+ 12% 6.6 9.5% 12% Goal Line 0% 1.0 9.7% 21 10% 5.7 3.0%
21 3% 4.1 -31.8% 50% Goal Line 0% 3.5 -43.2% 100% 10 3% 10.4 69.2%
20 2% 5.1 -214.2% 0% Big 1% 5.5 38.6% 73% 13 2% 7.0 55.7%
102 HOUSTON TEXANS

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 41% 12 Form: Single Back 78% 26 Rush 3 1.5% 31 4 DB 32% 6 Play Action 24% 25
Runs, first down 48% 18 Form: Empty Back 10% 10 Rush 4 80.2% 2 5 DB 67% 9 Offensive Motion 36% 25
Runs, second-long 38% 2 Form: Multi Back 12% 10 Rush 5 13.5% 30 6+ DB 0% 32 Avg Box (Off) 6.50 14
Runs, power sit. 51% 26 Pers: 3+ WR 62% 21 Rush 6+ 4.8% 13 Man Coverage 25% 24 Avg Box (Def) 6.70 4
Runs, behind 2H 28% 18 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 35% 7 Edge Rusher Sacks 57.8% 13 CB by Sides 83% 10 Offensive Pace 32.16 23
Pass, ahead 2H 43% 24 Pers: 6+ OL 3% 17 Interior DL Sacks 25.0% 18 S/CB Cover Ratio 19% 31 Defensive Pace 31.45 23
Run-Pass Options 9% 17 Shotgun/Pistol 70% 10 Second Level Sacks 17.2% 14 DB Blitz 5% 28 Go for it on 4th 0.69 30

Houston’s run/pass ratios dramatically went up compared to the year before. Runs in the first half went from 29% to 41%;
runs on first down went from 35% to 48%; and runs on second-and-long nearly doubled from 21% to 38%. Houston ran on
second-and-long more than any offense except for Tennessee even though the Texans averaged a league-low 3.0 yards per carry
on these runs with -55.5% DVOA. 🏈 Houston used the pistol on 7.9% of plays, third in the league, but the Texans had a
terrible -35.5% DVOA with just 3.6 yards per play from pistol. 🏈 The Texans ranked dead last in DVOA on passes in the
middle of the field and 29th on passes to the left side, but 15th on passes to the right side. 🏈 Houston was tied for 30th in
the league with just 89 broken tackles on offense. 🏈 The Texans dropped only 12 passes, the lowest total in the league. 🏈
With Lovie Smith as defensive coordinator, the Texans went from near the bottom of the league in using four pass-rushers (56%
in 2020) to near the top of the league (80%). 🏈 Houston’s defensive DVOA on “short middle” passes rose to ninth after
two years near the bottom of the league. 🏈 Houston’s S/CB cover ratio would be higher (28%, close to league average) if
we considered Lonnie Johnson as a safety instead of a cornerback.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
D.Mills 66 -8.7% 423 2446 5.8 4.7 67.3% 16 10 B.Cooks 177 3.5% 134 90 1035 11.5 3.8 6 67%
T.Taylor* -210 -30.9% 162 847 5.2 5.4 61.1% 5 5 N.Collins 25 -7.7% 60 33 448 13.6 4.0 1 55%
K.Allen 19 3.3% 21 115 5.5 3.8 63.2% 1 0 D.Amendola* -16 -18.2% 38 24 248 10.3 4.4 3 63%
C.Conley 50 4.7% 37 22 323 14.7 5.7 2 59%
C.Moore 26 3.0% 22 21 227 10.8 7.1 2 95%
Rushing P.Dorsett -2 -14.4% 12 6 107 17.8 3.7 0 50%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc A.Miller* -19 -35.1% 11 5 23 4.6 2.0 1 45%
R.Burkhead -4 -9.3% 122 427 3.5 3 1 46% P.Brown -63 -35.3% 34 23 171 7.4 4.6 0 68%
M.Ingram* -55 -22.4% 92 294 3.2 1 0 39% J.Akins* -28 -20.8% 33 24 214 8.9 3.4 0 73%
D.Johnson* -39 -24.6% 67 228 3.4 0 1 33% B.Jordan 13 -0.2% 28 20 178 8.9 5.0 3 71%
P.Lindsay* -40 -29.0% 50 130 2.6 1 0 30% D.Johnson* 30 -0.2% 42 32 225 7.0 6.0 1 76%
R.Freeman -32 -32.1% 35 92 2.6 0 0 43% R.Burkhead 24 -0.1% 32 25 186 7.4 5.6 0 78%
T.Taylor* 20 11.8% 18 149 8.3 3 3 - R.Freeman -4 -20.3% 10 7 62 8.9 9.1 0 70%
D.Mills -5 -18.0% 15 47 3.1 0 0 - M.Ingram* -15 -38.4% 9 7 24 3.4 4.4 0 78%
S.Phillips* -3 -19.5% 6 13 2.2 0 0 33% D.Ogunbowale -10 -22.3% 21 13 114 8.8 7.7 1 62%
J.Samuels* -5 -44.5% 5 9 1.8 0 0 0%
D.Ogunbowale -27 -23.4% 43 137 3.2 1 0 40%
M.Mack -5 -13.6% 28 101 3.6 0 0 32%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Tytus Howard LG/LT 26 15/15 927 8 1.5 11 3 Lane Taylor* LG 33 7/5 311 2 0.5 5 6
Charlie Heck RT 26 15/13 827 2 4.5 13 9 Laremy Tunsil LT 28 5/5 262 1 0.0 1 1
Max Scharping RG 26 17/11 689 3 2.5 8 6 Jimmy Morrissey C 24 5/4 258 2 1.0 4 3
Justin Britt C 31 11/11 671 4 0.5 6 10 Marcus Cannon* RT 34 4/4 213 0 1.0 3 1
Geron Christian* LT 26 14/8 588 5 1.5 13 6 A.J. Cann RG 31 4/4 199 0 1.0 7 3
Justin McCray RG/C 30 14/8 545 1 3.0 12 7
 HOUSTON TEXANS 103
Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.52 4.13 21 81% 1 18% 11 1.26 12 0.93 12 14.0% 29 49 8.4% 27 34.2% 28 13.1% 15 21
2020 4.04 4.02 27 67% 14 15% 8 0.94 32 0.68 18 10.7% 19 50 9.5% 32 30.0% 26 14.2% 24 26
2021 3.16 3.33 32 72% 8 18% 24 0.72 32 0.28 32 14.0% 30 44 7.6% 22 30.4% 31 12.6% 9 20
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 1.80 (32) Left Tackle: 3.70 (26) Mid/Guard: 3.37 (32) Right Tackle: 3.83 (26) Right End: 3.22 (30)

Houston had the third-most adjusted games lost along the offensive line in 2021. Laremy Tunsil, the lone star of the line, was
the biggest loss. In just a five-game sample, Tunsil’s 0.8% blown block rate showed he was playing at a high level before tearing
a thumb ligament. 🏈 Tytus Howard was shuffled around the most due to injuries on the line, starting at left guard through
Week 11 but mostly playing left tackle after that. Howard was widely viewed as a better tackle than guard last season, but his
blown block rate was much better inside (1.1%) than at tackle (2.6%). Granted, blown block rates are typically lower inside.
The bad plays also looked much worse inside, like getting blown through by DeForest Buckner. Howard was a better run block-
er outside with no blown blocks on his left tackle snaps. He’s going to play right tackle this season and had his fifth-year option
picked up for 2023. 🏈 The versatility of rookie Kenyon Green (Texas A&M) was also a selling point. The 15th overall pick
played every position but center in 2021 alone but spent most of his time at guard, where he’ll start his NFL career. Green has
physicality and explosion off the line that could place him as a high-quality guard with some refinement in hand usage. 🏈
The other guard spot will likely go to free-agent signing A.J. Cann, who spent the past three seasons with offensive line coach
George Warhop in Jacksonville. Cann really struggled (5.3% blown block rate) in five games last year before an MCL injury
ended his season, but the previous two years he ranked 13th and 15th in blown block rate at right guard. 🏈 Max Scharping
could also be involved after serving as the right guard last year following his first two seasons on the left side. Sharping showed
improvement on the right side over his first two disappointing seasons (he was 11th among right guards in blown block rate),
but it’s rarely a good sign when the new coach brings in his guy for the same position. 🏈 Justin Britt was re-signed to a two-
year deal after missing time in 2021 with a knee injury and COVID and should slide back in as the veteran presence at center.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Maliek Collins 27 DT 15 629 30 3.8% 81 21 12 0 23 65% 68 2.1 29 2.5 4 16 1
Roy Lopez 25 DT 16 501 31 3.7% 83 22 6 2 30 70% 48 1.9 17 1.0 1 4 0
DeMarcus Walker* 28 DT 13 456 32 4.7% 64 22 11 4 27 67% 58 3.1 79 2.0 6 16 1
Ross Blacklock 24 DT 14 455 24 3.2% 92 15 6 2 17 53% 94 4.5 99 2.0 4 16 1
Jaleel Johnson* 28 DT 12 322 23 3.6% 86 16 4 2 20 70% 48 2.9 67 0.0 1 7 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Jacob Martin* 27 DE 17 698 26 2.9% 95 24 12 6 17 88% 7 0.8 4 4.0 3 29 3
Jonathan Greenard 25 DE 12 413 37 5.8% 38 30 16 6 23 70% 60 2.8 60 8.0 6 11 3
Jordan Jenkins 28 DE 11 282 20 3.4% -- 13 8 1 13 69% -- 3.2 -- 2.5 2 5 0
Rasheem Green 25 DE 17 846 52 5.2% 49 35 16 11 36 61% 81 3.0 70 6.5 8 20 4
Jerry Hughes 34 DE 17 558 21 2.6% 97 16 11 4 10 70% 54 1.9 19 2.0 5 36 3
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo 27 OLB 13 255 15 2.1% -- 14 6 4 9 100% -- 0.9 -- 2.0 3 5 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Christian Kirksey 30 MLB 13 789 101 14.7% 27 56 23 8 61 62% 23 3.7 39 0.0 2 3 28 57% 21 8.4 62 8 1
Kamu Grugier-Hill 28 OLB 14 777 109 14.7% 26 64 23 13 67 70% 7 3.7 38 3.0 2 4 25 48% 38 7.2 49 3 1
Neville Hewitt 29 OLB 17 324 51 5.7% -- 31 10 2 36 75% -- 3.9 -- 0.0 1 0 4 0% -- 10.3 -- 0 0
Garret Wallow 23 OLB 17 180 20 2.2% -- 11 5 3 9 78% -- 2.0 -- 1.0 0 0 6 33% -- 8.7 -- 0 0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin 27 ILB 15 616 76 9.8% 64 42 9 10 48 54% 55 4.0 50 0.0 1 8 29 66% 8 5.2 19 4 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.62 4.50 22 59% 7 14% 27 1.14 13 1.00 28 11.1% 24 30 5.2% 29 28.3% 25 15.3% 16
2020 5.55 4.84 28 58% 4 16% 21 1.46 31 1.52 32 14.7% 8 34 6.9% 11 20.0% 30 10.5% 28
2021 4.83 4.60 25 65% 10 20% 9 1.54 32 0.92 29 13.6% 17 32 6.0% 23 24.1% 20 15.4% 14
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.34 (19) Left Tackle: 4.12 (13) Mid/Guard: 4.45 (21) Right Tackle: 4.75 (27) Right End: 6.03 (29)
104 HOUSTON TEXANS

Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison might be among the most underrated pass-rushers in the league. Hughes was tied for 15th
in hurries and Addison tied for 36th, despite neither player hitting 600 defensive snaps. Hughes and Addison will be 34 and
35 years old, respectively, this season and benefited from a deeper rotation in Buffalo, which could be mimicked in Houston
because even if there are no top tier pass-rushers, there are a lot of players on the depth chart. 🏈 Jonathan Greenard is the
team’s top returning edge rusher and while eight sacks are an impressive total, those came on just 13 quarterback knockdowns,
a conversion rate that is unlikely to be sustained. 🏈 Ogbo Okoronkwo has flashed high pressure rates in limited playing
time with the Rams but has only 4.5 sacks in three seasons. 🏈 Rasheem Green, another free-agent addition, will play into
the rotation with 6.5 sacks last season in his first year as a full-time starter for Seattle. 🏈 The Texans got a rebound season
from Maliek Collins, who returned to form as a pass-rusher (6.5 sacks and sixth among defensive tackles in ESPN’s Pass Rush
Win Rate after zero sacks with the Raiders in 2020) and even chipped in with some run defense. 🏈 After Collins, there are
questions inside. Ross Blacklock was better as a pass-rusher than he was in a poor rookie season, but he was a liability against
the run. That would be OK if Collins didn’t play the same role and a bit better. 🏈 Roy Lopez made an immediate impact
as a sixth-round rookie nose tackle. Lopez was a stout run defender who helped take up space and opened up rushing lanes for
Collins and Blacklock. 🏈 2022 fifth-round pick Thomas Booker (Stanford) can fill in as a big interior presence who can
push the pocket a bit. 🏈 Houston has a handful of veteran linebackers (Christian Kirksey and the all-hyphen team of Kevin
Pierre-Louis, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and Kamu Grugier-Hill) who will see time on a defense that had one of the highest rates
of base personnel, about a third of defensive snaps. 🏈 2022 third-round pick Christian Harris (Alabama) has some upside
as an athletic linebacker and converted safety who plays well in zone and can blitz, with a 26% blitz rate in each of the past
two seasons.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Desmond King 28 CB 16 927 92 10.9% 13 26 8 10 29 41% 45 6.7 49 76 23.7% 14 12.2 41% 78 8.9 72 6 3
Terrance Mitchell* 30 CB 14 796 69 9.3% 33 21 8 13 24 29% 61 10.8 77 62 22.5% 22 11.5 42% 77 8.3 61 10 1
Justin Reid* 25 SS 13 780 68 9.9% 48 19 9 14 42 26% 57 7.6 44 12 4.4% 69 14.4 58% 30 8.3 51 4 2
Eric Murray 28 FS 16 758 77 9.1% 55 30 10 10 42 52% 12 5.1 11 29 11.1% 19 12.8 52% 46 7.8 48 4 1
Tavierre Thomas 26 CB 17 638 82 9.1% -- 34 12 5 37 54% -- 4.8 -- 21 9.5% -- 7.1 71% -- 3.0 -- 4 2
Lonnie Johnson* 27 CB 14 541 56 7.6% -- 15 4 13 23 26% -- 8.3 -- 24 12.8% -- 13.4 54% -- 9.8 -- 6 3
Vernon Hargreaves* 27 CB 12 390 34 5.4% -- 13 6 5 8 38% -- 7.9 -- 25 18.5% -- 9.9 48% -- 8.6 -- 3 1
Fabian Moreau 28 CB 16 1037 72 8.3% 46 30 14 9 19 32% 58 5.5 32 72 19.5% 43 11.4 49% 64 7.3 47 11 0
Steven Nelson 29 CB 16 983 57 6.9% 66 17 7 3 13 23% 72 10.1 76 52 14.7% 74 11.4 44% 76 8.5 66 7 1
M.J. Stewart 27 CB 13 327 42 6.5% -- 19 9 5 13 23% -- 7.0 -- 24 20.2% -- 3.8 67% -- 3.9 -- 4 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 26 -1.1% 14 11.4% 24 -10.0% 10 -2.6% 20 6.4% 18 0.0% 15 21.7% 26
2020 29 23.6% 31 23.8% 30 14.7% 26 8.0% 23 22.4% 32 25.8% 31 10.1% 25
2021 22 -10.2% 8 23.6% 28 10.5% 24 20.1% 31 -2.8% 10 28.3% 32 -9.5% 12

Everything could change with the addition of third overall pick Derek Stingley. Stingley had a phenomenal freshman season
in coverage at LSU in 2019 but through injuries has not hit that peak since. As a physical man corner, Stingley doesn’t exactly
fit the prototype of a Lovie Smith zone defender, but Smith has said the Texans are going to do different things with him. What
that means is yet to be determined, but Stingley still had success in zone coverage during his career. The 2019 highlights were
in man but during that season Stingley was in zone 52% of the time and allowed a 27% success rate, per SIS. 🏈 Steven
Nelson projects to be the other outside corner, coming over after a decent year with the Eagles. 🏈 Tavierre Thomas was one
of the league’s better slot corners last season with a 71% success rate in coverage. He didn’t have enough targets to qualify for
the leaderboard, but that was more due to deterring targets than not having enough playing time. 🏈 Desmond King really
struggled as an outside corner and was the most targeted player on the team, by raw passes and targets per coverage snap. 🏈
How the safety rotation works might hinge on how the Texans use second-round pick Jalen Pitre. At Baylor, Pitre was used
in a slot/safety/linebacker role. In 2021, he played 76% of his snaps in the slot and blitzed 17% of the time. He’s a ferocious
downhill player with the ability to play back in coverage. While he was best near the line of scrimmage, he can play all over.
🏈 Despite the history of Lovie Smith, the Texans played a single-high shell on 51% of snaps in 2021 and that role was mostly
played by Justin Reid. Eric Murray bounced between the box, slot, and deep, and didn’t really excel anywhere but signed a
two-year extension this offseason. 🏈 Jonathan Owens, also known as Mr. Simone Biles, could also be in the safety mix. He
worked his way into defensive playing time late in the season, including two starts with 100% of the snaps played in Weeks 15
 HOUSTON TEXANS 105

and 16. The highlight was an interception undercutting a Josh Palmer route from a two-high look near the end zone in Houston’s
41-29 upset of the Chargers in Week 16. 🏈 Using more defensive backs could be a strength for the Texans, but they were
the only team in the league to not run a snap in dime last season.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 2.9% 5 -1.9 20 4.7 8 0.1 14 10.5 2 1.0 13 -7.6 28
2020 -1.0% 21 -2.5 20 1.9 13 -4.7 30 2.1 15 -1.8 20 10.9 6
2021 1.3% 9 -7.8 29 -2.0 22 7.1 4 10.8 2 -1.1 22 6.6 4

Ka’imi Fairburn had his fourth straight season as a bottom-tier kicker by gross kickoff value; only Daniel Carlson of Las
Vegas was lower last year. He wasn’t particularly strong as a placekicker in 2021 either. You can partially explain his 79% field
goal rate because all of his misses came from 40 yards out or more. However, missing three extra points (out of just 16 attempts)
does not have the same excuse. Still, it does not appear there will be any serious competition for him in training camp. 🏈 In
his first year with Houston, Aussie punter Cameron Johnston finished second behind Bryan Anger of the Cowboys in net punt-
ing value. Of course, that’s partly because Johnston led the league in punts. If we look at net value per punt, he drops to fifth.
🏈 The Texans brought in Andre Roberts as a return specialist last offseason, then cut him after just six games. Roberts aver-
aged 21.4 yards per return on 18 kickoffs with the Texans and then averaged 32.8 yards per return on 19 kickoffs with the Los
Angeles Chargers. He finished the year third in kick return value even though he had negative value during his time in Houston.
🏈 Right behind Roberts in kick return value last year: Tremon Smith, who took over when Roberts left Houston and was
worth 7.6 points of estimated field position, including a 98-yard touchdown in Week 14. Smith is one of Houston’s core special
teamers, playing 77% of special teams snaps and finishing second on the team in special teams tackles behind Neville Hewitt.
🏈 Desmond King took over punt returns when Roberts was cut and ended up eighth in the league in punt return value (2.6
points). With a crowded secondary, that might be where his biggest contributions for the 2022 roster come.
 Indianapolis Colts
2021 record: 9-8 Total DVOA: 9.8% (11) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.9 wins On the Clock (0-5): 19%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.7 (7) Offense: 4.4% (13) Postseason Odds: 37.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 41%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.6 (14) Defense: -4.9% (8) Super Bowl Odds: 3.3% Playoff Contender (9-11): 31%
Average Opponent: -0.6% (22) Special Teams: 0.4% (14) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -1.0% (24) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 9%

2021: Another new year, another new quarterback.

2022: Another new year, another new quarterback.

T o tell the story of the 2021 Indianapolis Colts, you have to

start in August of 2019. Since the moment Andrew Luck
abruptly retired from the NFL, the Colts have been swapping
the season with 511 rushing DYAR, the highest single-season
total since Stephen Davis in 1999. Offensively, the run game
was about as varied and explosive as you can get, leaning on
out quarterbacks more often than a single longing to replace Taylor’s vision and speed to create big plays. Taylor led the
their ex-partners, trying to reignite the flame that was once NFL in explosive runs of over 15 yards, and when he needed
held inside Lucas Oil Stadium. a rest, insert Nyheim Hines, who could contribute on third
The Colts find themselves in somewhat of a quarterback downs in the passing game. The growth of Michael Pittman
purgatory, rotating in new passers in hopes of finding a long- in his second year also gave Wentz a legitimate star outside
term answer. First came Jacoby Brissett, who finished 19th in wide receiver.
DYAR in 2019 but couldn’t elevate the Colts passing offense Defensively, the Colts were eighth in total DVOA; there
past 25th in passing DVOA. In 2020, Brissett left Indianapolis wasn’t much change from 2020, which makes sense for a
in free agency and in came Philip Rivers, trying to take one team that didn’t make many adjustments to that side of the
last swing at winning a title before retirement. Rivers was an ball in the offseason. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’
improvement, finishing 13th in DYAR and helping the Colts Cover-2 scheme relied heavily on getting pressure with only
offense finish 16th in passing DVOA while making the play- four defenders, rangy linebacker play, and maximizing every
offs. However, the Colts couldn’t make it past the wild-card turnover opportunity. How did this work for Indy? They fin-
round, and Rivers retired in the offseason, throwing another ished tied with Dallas for the highest turnover margin in the
curveball at Indianapolis. It has been a road of hard knocks at league and recovered 14 fumbles, also tied for the highest in
the position, much like the TV show the Colts were featured the league. When the recipe of a bend-don’t-break defense
on during the season. However, head coach Frank Reich had a combined with the dynamic rushing of Taylor was sprinkled
plan for what the Colts were going to do under center. with a hint of non-wacky Wentz play, the Colts were a fear-
2021’s lucky choice to step inside the rodeo was none other some team. In the middle of the season, the Colts went on an
than Carson Wentz, the much-embattled quarterback who was 8-2 run that included wins over four playoff clubs. There was
traded to Indianapolis in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick no better example of this than in Week 11, when Indianapo-
and a conditional 2022 second-round pick. Wentz was very lis crushed the Buffalo Bills 41-15 behind five Taylor touch-
bad in his final year in Philadelphia. However, the hope was downs.
that reuniting Wentz with an old flame in Reich (who helped The problem with this recipe was simple, however: it
Wentz finish eighth in DYAR in 2017, the year Philadelphia wasn’t replicable enough. Moments after losing to the Jaguars
won the Super Bowl), along with a feisty defense that finished in the final game of the season, Colts owner Jim Irsay put out
seventh in defensive DVOA in 2020, would get the Colts over a memo stating that the Colts ended their season in the “worst
the hump and back to the playoff wins that Luck brought to way possible,” and quarterback play was largely the problem.
them. The same core that helped Rivers reach the playoffs The Colts simply needed to win one of their last two games
would still be there for Wentz, who wouldn’t have to take on to reach the playoffs again. They dropped them both. Wentz
as much responsibility as he did in Philadelphia. didn’t have 200 yards in either game, finishing with 0 DYAR
What the Colts soon learned was that getting back with an in Week 17 against Las Vegas and a horrible -108 DYAR in
old flame sometimes leaves both parties burned. Wentz’s stats Week 18 against Jacksonville. The Colts passing offense was
look good on the surface; ranking 16th in DYAR and DVOA stymied by a Jaguars defense that finished last in defensive
and 20th in EPA per play to go with 24 touchdowns is noth- DVOA against the pass.
ing to turn your nose up against. However, his overall inef- Throughout the entire season, Wentz wasn’t asked to do
ficiency and knack for backbreaking, mind-bending turnovers much. Wentz posted the lowest average depth of target (aDOT)
inevitably sunk a Colts season that otherwise broke about as since his rookie season. He posted a career high in RPO at-
perfectly as possible on both sides of the ball. tempts. The Colts were 23rd in early-down passing rate. Wen-
That starts with running back Jonathan Taylor, who finished tz also posted his second highest bad throw percentage of his
106
 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 107

2021 IND DVOA by Week

2022 Colts Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at HOU 7 at TEN 13 at DAL
2 at JAX 8 WAS 14 BYE 40%
3 KC 9 at NE 15 at MIN 20%
4 TEN 10 at LV 16 LAC (Mon.)
0%
5 at DEN (Thu.) 11 PHI 17 at NYG
6 JAX 12 PIT (Mon.) 18 HOU -20%

-40%

-60%

career per Pro Football Reference. The Colts simply asked -80%

Wentz to keep the car on the road, but Wentz took the steering -100%

wheel and careened into a ditch in Jacksonville. In a league

where passing is prioritized, having a quarterback who you
can’t trust to throw the ball often leads to micromanagement
and trying to hide his weaknesses. The Colts ranked eighth or package of picks in March, and the Colts abruptly traded for
higher in run/pass ratio not only in the first half of games but Matt Ryan two weeks later. “Matt’s leadership and skill set
also in passing situations such as second-and-long or when will complement our roster’s growth and success,” Ballard
trailing after halftime. They simply couldn’t trust Wentz to said in a statement. “He’s long been a great ambassador for
throw the ball more because they knew what was coming: the the NFL and the Atlanta Falcons, and we’re excited he can
critical turnover. The interceptions thrown into double cover- continue his accomplished career in Indianapolis.”
age. The passes seemingly thrown with his left hand instead of On the surface level, this seems like a basic thing that any
his right. You know, those types of plays. Wentz had too many general manager would say when bringing in a new quarter-
of them in critical situations, and it led to the Colts not being back. However, Reich’s comments about Ryan truly depict
able to trust him in high leverage situations. what the Colts are desperately needing at the position. Reich
On top of that, there seems to be a consistent issue with said he admired Ryan’s “steady, methodical approach to the
Wentz in the locker room. The Athletic’s Zak Keefer reported game.”
after the season that Wentz had grown a “resistance to hard There’s that word. Steady.
coaching and a lack of leadership.” This was also rumored to That’s what the Colts have been missing at the position:
be the reason why Wentz left Philadelphia, with reports stat- steadiness. The Colts are tired of going back to the bar and
ing he wouldn’t talk to then-Eagles head coach Doug Ped- leaving with the same type of quarterback every year, stuck in
erson. Frank Reich made a bet on the reunion with Wentz, an endless loop of mediocre performance. Wentz was the last
but ultimately it failed. Irsay even went as far as calling the straw for Ballard and the Colts, but the inability of Wentz to
Wentz era a “mistake” at the NFL’s annual team meeting. succeed might be more of a systematic issue outside of Wen-
“I think the worst thing you can do is have a mistake and tz’s inability.
try and keep living with it moving forward,” Irsay said per Can Matt Ryan be that quarterback for the Colts? Well, we
the Indianapolis Star. It should be commendable that the have to examine what happened last year while he was in a
Colts are able to move on from bad quarterback situations as Falcons uniform.
quickly as they do, but the larger problem is bringing them Ryan finished 19th in passing DYAR and 21st in DVOA
into your franchise in the first place. General manager Chris among quarterbacks, ranking even lower than Wentz. How-
Ballard has done a great job of rebuilding the Colts roster, ever, he was missing Calvin Ridley for half the season, and the
finding franchise building blocks on both sides of the ball. Atlanta receiving group was very poor outside of rookie tight
However, continuing to swing and miss at quarterbacks has end Kyle Pitts. What Ryan showcased was an ability to still
been the thorn in Ballard’s side. throw the ball at a level high enough for the Falcons to be in a
There’s the biggest problem the Colts franchise has faced lot of games, despite not having many receiving weapons and
since Luck walked out that door. They have built a great ros- behind an offensive line that was 11th in adjusted sack rate
ter, especially defensively, but have repeatedly made mistakes but 26th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. Ryan still shows
at the most critical position in football. They open themselves the ability to be a great processor and throw with accuracy,
back up into the quarterback dating market but leave with the and he has enough arm to test defenses downfield. Ryan’s on-
same type of guy every time, not seeming to learn their lesson. target throw percentage was 78.9% in 2021, which isn’t a ca-
Nobody is expecting them to coax Luck out of retirement or reer high according to Sports Info Solutions, but is still higher
find the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Indianapolis just than Wentz, who came in at 72.2%. To simply put it, Ryan is
needs stability at the position, a quarterback who won’t make somewhere in the middle ground between the Colts’ previous
the same silly mistakes as Wentz on the field and will be more two quarterbacks: not as erratic with the ball as Carson Wentz
of a leader off the field. but blessed with more arm strength at this point than Philip
Wentz was traded to the Washington Commanders for a Rivers had.
108 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

That being said, Ryan is 36 years old, and while his arm isn’t top receivers to the boundary, Gilmore’s ability to win on an
quite as shot as Rivers’ was, it clearly lacks the zip that it did island is crucial for teams running Cover-3 as often as Brad-
when he won MVP in 2016. Will Ryan be enough of a differ- ley’s defenses do.
ence from Wentz to make Indianapolis a serious challenger in Offensively, the situation gets a little murkier. Last year, the
an AFC that looks more and more like a murderer’s row? That’s Colts offensive line felt hit-or-miss more often than in previ-
where the Colts are in terms of their franchise’s timeline. This ous years. Their adjusted line yards went up to seventh in the
team needs to start winning playoff games right now in order league, but they ranked 29th in the percentage of runs that
to maximize the primes of their franchise cornerstones. Is Ryan were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Colts also
good enough right now to help the team reach that goal? got worse in all our pass-blocking stats: adjusted sack rate,
Defensively, Indianapolis replaces Eberflus with Gus Brad- pressure rate, and blown block rate. This could be chalked
ley, who comes from Las Vegas. We know Bradley is going up to most of their main linemen dealing with nagging inju-
to base out of Cover-3—that much has been true his entire ries. Star left guard Quenton Nelson only played in 13 games,
career, being a branch from the Seattle tree. However, Bradley center Ryan Kelly only played in 14, and right tackle Braden
won’t be completely revamping a defensive roster, like his Smith played in just 11 .
previous stops, because much of the Colts’ core remains the Theoretically, the Colts offensive line should be healthier
same. Pro Bowlers Darius Leonard, DeForest Buckner, and and thus better off in 2022. The problem is the gaping hole
Kenny Moore are still donning the horseshoe on the helmet. at left tackle. Eric Fisher, whom the Colts signed last offsea-
Leonard’s ability to range from sideline to sideline in the run son, finished 36th among qualifying left tackles in snaps per
game is still extremely valuable, despite not being the best in blown block as an underwhelming replacement for Anthony
pass coverage. Leonard improved his success rate in coverage Castonzo. The Colts didn’t re-sign Fisher in free agency, and
in 2021 to 46%, but that still puts him at 45th among qualify- replaced him with … well, we’re not sure yet. It might be for-
ing linebackers. So if he isn’t the greatest linebacker in cover- mer Eagles guard Matt Pryor. It might be third-round rookie
age, and excels in the run game primarily, how has he not been Bernhard Raimann. Either player is likely a step down from
schemed off the field? The answer to that is simple: Darius a step down.
Leonard causes havoc around the ball. That includes eight There’s also some turnover in the receiver corps. Ryan will
forced fumbles, eight passes defensed, and four interceptions be able to lean on Michael Pittman, one of the league’s better
in 2021. Buckner didn’t quite reach nine sacks like he did the young receivers. Pittman finished in the top 20 of DYAR and
year before, but he’s still a dominant force in the middle of went over 1,000 yards last year, but he needs a running mate
the defense. Moore rose to be one of the best slot corners in to open up more of the passing game. Zach Pascal left in free
the NFL. Indianapolis traded away cornerback Rock Ya-Sin agency, while longtime Colts veteran T.Y. Hilton remains un-
for Yannick Ngakoue in hopes of turning up a pass rush that signed and No. 1 tight end Jack Doyle retired. The Colts are
finished 25th in adjusted sack rate and 24th in ESPN’s Pass depending heavily on second-round pick Alec Pierce and the
Rush Win Rate. Second-year players Kwity Paye and Dayo return of oft-injured slot receiver Parris Campbell. There’s not
Odeyingbo look to take the leap next year and help the pass a lot of depth behind them. Right now, WR4 is special teams
rush as well. Stephon Gilmore replaces Xavier Rhodes and gunner Ashton Dulin and WR5 is 2021 seventh-round pick
could allow for more man coverage. Mike Strachan.
Bradley’s Cover-3 defense could help the Colts’ current tal- Ultimately, this season for the Colts is going to fall on the
ent a lot, in terms of the types of personnel they have. His old shoulders of Ryan. The Colts’ core of talent has remained
Seattle teams all had rangy linebackers, corners who could the same in recent years, but quarterback play has been the
take away one side of the field, and pass-rushers who could one thing holding this team back from making serious noise
win without the use of a blitz. Buckner, Paye, and Ngakoue in the playoffs. Leonard, Buckner, and Moore aren’t getting
should provide the pass rush without the use of a blitz; Ngak- younger, and Jonathan Taylor carried the ball 332 times last
oue’s 33 hurries in 2021 would have led the Colts last year, season. Those hits are going to start to add up, and the Colts
and his speed is a complement to Buckner and Paye’s power- don’t want to waste the prime years of his career. Ryan is go-
based pass rush. They’ll continue to be a one-gap defense with ing to have to be less errant with the ball than Wentz, while
four down linemen, but now it’s a more aggressive scheme, also giving the offense more life in the passing game. He’s not
forcing the issue with the pass rush. In coverage, expecting “the one,” the quarterback who will lead the franchise for the
2022 Stephon Gilmore to be peak Richard Sherman is wish- next five to 10 years, but the Colts believe Ryan can be the
casting, but one of the hallmarks of Bradley’s Cover-3 defense temporary fix to help get their groove back and make a legit
is taking away one side of the field with a shutdown corner. championship run.
If there’s one receiver to that side, then it essentially becomes
man coverage. With the way teams like Arizona isolate their J.P. Acosta
 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 109

2021 Colts by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 SEA L 2% 16 28 336 381 0 -24% -1% 23% 0% Total DVOA 4.4% 13 -4.9% 8
2 LAR L 3% 24 27 354 371 0 -17% -22% 3% 8% Unadjusted VOA 3.8% 17 -6.6% 7
3 at TEN L 18% 16 25 265 368 3 -8% 5% 4% -9% Weighted Trend 3.3% 13 -9.2% 7
4 at MIA W 96% 27 17 349 203 1 28% 20% -9% -1% Variance 8.0% 20 7.6% 21
5 at BAL L 60% 25 31 513 523 0 -5% 47% 40% -12% Average Opponent -0.4% 14 -0.9% 21
6 HOU W 100% 31 3 388 353 3 47% 27% -18% 2%
7 at SF W 97% 30 18 295 280 2 46% -2% -50% -3% Passing 6.2% 20 5.9% 17
8 TEN L 68% 31 34 307 340 -1 26% -10% -30% 7% Rushing 10.4% 2 -21.6% 3
9 NYJ W 95% 45 30 532 486 2 17% 41% 26% 2%
First Down 4.1% 12 -5.7% 10
10 JAX W 87% 23 17 295 331 1 -22% -27% -2% 4%
Second Down 0.3% 16 5.9% 23
11 at BUF W 100% 41 15 370 311 4 82% 46% -21% 16%
Third Down 10.7% 11 -20.3% 5
12 TB L 20% 31 38 392 359 -3 8% 3% 3% 9%
13 at HOU W 100% 31 0 389 141 1 61% 8% -59% -6% First Half 3.8% 11 -10.0% 10
14 BYE Second Half 5.2% 17 -0.4% 9
15 NE W 62% 27 17 275 365 1 39% 2% -38% -1%
16 at ARI W 70% 22 16 346 378 0 5% 14% 0% -9% Red Zone -5.6% 19 9.5% 27
17 LV L 21% 20 23 262 326 2 7% -3% -13% -3% Late and Close 5.9% 13 0.0% 16
18 at JAX L 0% 11 26 233 318 -2 -90% -66% 25% 2%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 4-12 4.2 4.2 263 404 +5 -23.9% 30 -18.3% 30 9.3% 27 3.7% 8 65.7 30 45.2 24 26.4 24 25.7 24 25.3 27
2018 10-6 10.3 10.0 433 344 +2 12.4% 8 7.9% 10 -3.5% 11 0.9% 12 57.0 28 51.6 28 25.8 28 25.3 28 25.7 19
2019 7-9 7.7 7.2 361 373 +2 -6.0% 20 -3.4% 19 3.0% 19 0.4% 16 38.6 16 26.7 10 26.0 28 25.6 25 25.1 29
2020 11-5 10.2 10.0 451 362 +10 14.2% 10 2.7% 12 -9.5% 7 2.0% 10 46.3 21 26.6 8 27.6 4 26.0 25 25.7 22
2021 9-8 10.7 9.8 451 365 +14 9.8% 11 4.4% 13 -4.9% 8 0.4% 14 51.7 23 44.8 21 26.9 10 26.4 17 26.4 11

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

IND Offense IND Offense vs. Opponents IND Defense IND Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 63% 5.7 7.2% 34% Base 24% 5.8 9.0% 60% Base 21% 5.4 1.6% 11 65% 5.9 -1.2%
12 21% 5.4 -1.0% 60% Nickel 63% 6.0 12.0% 44% Nickel 78% 5.8 -6.0% 12 20% 5.3 -6.4%
21 7% 8.9 30.7% 46% Dime+ 12% 5.8 -10.3% 5% Dime+ 1% 2.7 -147.6% 21 6% 6.1 -5.5%
13 4% 7.6 34.7% 78% Goal Line 0% 0.5 -58.3% 75% Goal Line 0% 1.0 88.7% 13 3% 5.6 -18.2%
612 2% 3.5 -5.7% 95% Big 1% 0.7 -50.2% 100% 22 2% 3.5 -25.6%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 42% 8 Form: Single Back 91% 2 Rush 3 3.6% 23 4 DB 21% 22 Play Action 34% 3
Runs, first down 49% 14 Form: Empty Back 6% 28 Rush 4 76.4% 7 5 DB 78% 3 Offensive Motion 45% 15
Runs, second-long 34% 7 Form: Multi Back 3% 30 Rush 5 16.3% 27 6+ DB 1% 30 Avg Box (Off) 6.60 8
Runs, power sit. 69% 4 Pers: 3+ WR 64% 18 Rush 6+ 3.7% 18 Man Coverage 28% 18 Avg Box (Def) 6.41 24
Runs, behind 2H 35% 6 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 29% 17 Edge Rusher Sacks 56.1% 16 CB by Sides 82% 11 Offensive Pace 33.54 32
Pass, ahead 2H 45% 21 Pers: 6+ OL 3% 15 Interior DL Sacks 33.3% 11 S/CB Cover Ratio 19% 30 Defensive Pace 31.38 22
Run-Pass Options 10% 15 Shotgun/Pistol 64% 17 Second Level Sacks 10.6% 23 DB Blitz 11% 15 Go for it on 4th 1.21 11
110 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis rose from play-action on 25% of passes in 2020 (21st) to 34% of passes in 2021 (third). The Colts had one of
the larger gaps between play-action and other passes, with 8.0 yards per pass and 16.1% DVOA with play-action compared to
5.6 yards per pass and 0.2% DVOA otherwise. In 2020, the Colts had put up a reverse play-action split, better without the play
fake than with it. 🏈 The Colts’ defensive DVOA rank of 27th in the red zone was a strange combination: the best defense in
the league against red zone runs but 30th against red zone passes. The offense had a similar mix, ranking fifth in DVOA when
running in the red zone but dead last when passing the ball inside the 20. 🏈 Indianapolis had an average run defense on
first downs before ranking first in DVOA on second downs and third on third downs. 🏈 The Colts had the league’s smallest
gap between defensive DVOA with pass pressure (-39.6%, 29th) and defensive DVOA without pressure (22.7%, sixth). 🏈
Indianapolis benefited from a league-high 37 dropped passes by opponents. 🏈 Gus Bradley truly is one of the last pillars of
the Seattle Cover-3 defense. Last year, his Las Vegas defense finished 30th in the rate of using man coverage. The Raiders also
finished dead last in blitz frequency by sending extra pass-rushers on just 10% of pass plays. There was a notable difference in
blitzing defensive backs: the Colts got pressure 51% of the time when sending a defensive back while Bradley’s Raiders got
pressure just 37% of the time.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
C.Wentz* 461 1.8% 548 3326 6.1 5.1 62.5% 27 7 M.Pittman 202 7.1% 129 88 1082 12.3 4.0 6 68%
M.Ryan 268 -4.3% 599 3660 6.1 4.6 67.4% 20 12 Z.Pascal* -74 -26.3% 69 38 384 10.1 3.2 3 55%
N.Foles 46 9.1% 39 229 5.9 6.9 68.6% 1 0 T.Y.Hilton* 79 14.5% 37 23 331 14.4 3.1 3 62%
A.Dulin 38 7.6% 22 13 173 13.3 3.8 2 59%
P.Campbell 10 -6.7% 20 10 162 16.2 1.7 1 50%
Rushing M.Alie-Cox 10 -3.9% 45 24 316 13.2 6.3 4 53%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc J.Doyle* 20 -0.4% 43 29 302 10.4 4.3 3 67%
J.Taylor 511 25.3% 332 1811 5.5 18 3 56% K.Granson -17 -22.3% 15 11 106 9.6 6.9 0 73%
N.Hines 82 29.3% 56 276 4.9 2 0 48% N.Hines -4 -15.1% 58 40 310 7.6 7.0 1 70%
C.Wentz* 38 4.1% 45 222 4.9 1 4 - J.Taylor 21 -6.5% 51 40 360 9.0 10.2 2 78%
M.Mack* -5 -13.6% 28 101 3.6 0 0 32% T.Williams 24 26.3% 12 9 84 9.3 7.9 0 75%
D.Jackson -5 -18.9% 13 31 2.4 1 0 38% P.Lindsay 15 23.5% 5 4 45 11.3 13.3 1 80%
M.Pittman 23 60.1% 5 44 8.8 0 0 -
P.Lindsay -34 -18.4% 88 249 2.8 1 0 38%
T.Williams 15 2.2% 35 186 5.3 1 1 49%
M.Ryan -95 -61.0% 30 84 2.8 1 5 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Ryan Kelly C 29 14/14 909 6 1.5 9 9 Chris Reed* LG/RG 30 14/6 523 3 0.0 5 9
Eric Fisher* LT 31 15/15 875 9 6.5 28 10 Matt Pryor RT 28 17/5 441 6 0.0 5 6
Mark Glowinski* RG 30 16/14 845 2 0.0 11 10 Julién Davenport* RT 27 9/4 280 1 3.5 14 2
Quenton Nelson LG 26 13/13 769 5 0.5 7 4 Danny Pinter C 26 16/3 227 2 0.0 1 2
Braden Smith RT 26 11/11 713 6 3.5 7 8 Dennis Kelly RT 32 10/4 305 2 0.5 2 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.58 4.41 12 69% 7 20% 22 1.35 4 0.97 10 9.0% 11 32 6.0% 7 34.8% 29 17.0% 30 48
2020 4.60 4.23 20 66% 17 18% 22 1.31 8 0.97 7 8.3% 8 21 5.2% 7 18.5% 3 11.7% 14 23
2021 5.17 4.60 7 71% 12 19% 29 1.43 2 1.33 1 13.0% 26 32 6.2% 13 27.6% 22 15.2% 24 23
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.38 (15) Left Tackle: 4.27 (17) Mid/Guard: 4.49 (8) Right Tackle: 5.04 (3) Right End: 5.89 (5)

Consider for a moment the year that Jonathan Taylor had even though the well-regarded Colts line surprisingly finished
26th in blown block rate on runs and 29th in stuff rate on runs. 🏈 Part of the problem for the Colts’ line was continuity, as
no lineman started all 17 games. Another issue was the retirement of Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo in 2020 only gave up two
sacks and had 12 total blown blocks. His replacement was Eric Fisher, who finished 2021 with 6.5 sacks allowed and tied for
sixth in the league with 38 block blocks. 🏈 Ryan Kelly had a relatively down year, finishing 25th out of 37 centers in snaps
per blown block. 🏈 Quenton Nelson played in only 13 games last year but was still his great self when healthy, finishing
 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 111

seventh in snaps per blown block and giving up just half a sack. The Colts need him healthy next to whoever plays left tackle.
🏈 Braden Smith followed up an offseason where he earned a new contract with a solid 2021 campaign. He finished 10th in
snaps per blown block, although he only played in 11 games. 🏈 The Colts hope Bernhard Raimann can be the left tackle of
the future, but entering the draft at 24 years old provides some caution. Raimann is an agile and quick lineman with the ability
to get up to the second level with ease. He won’t be fazed by NFL speed off the edge, displaying quick feet in pass sets. Where
he gets into trouble is hand placement and power in the run game. A tight end-to-tackle convert, he’s still narrow through the
lower body, and it will take him some time to learn the nuances of run blocking. 🏈 Why do the Colts need Nelson, Kelly, and
Smith healthy? Right guard Mark Glowinski finished 23rd in snaps per blown block, and Nelson’s backup Chris Reed finished
34th among left guards in snaps per blown block. Matt Pryor filled in for Smith when he was injured and finished 15th in snaps
per blown block; however, Pryor finished 39th out of 41 right guards in 2020 in the same metric. Could this be an example of
improvement at a different position, or a one-year outlier? 🏈 Danny Pinter, who played center last year, will now replace
Glowinski at right guard. Pinter knows this is an opportunity he might not get again, so this offseason he has been sending video
clips of his training to Nelson for tips on how to play the position better.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
DeForest Buckner 28 DT 17 844 71 8.3% 6 48 16 4 55 65% 66 3.4 90 7.0 10 33 4
Grover Stewart 29 DT 17 643 48 5.6% 47 32 5 4 40 70% 48 2.5 46 1.0 4 18 2
Taylor Stallworth* 27 DT 16 332 17 2.1% -- 15 7 0 11 82% -- 2.3 -- 3.0 9 11 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Al-Quadin Muhammad* 27 DE 17 801 48 5.6% 41 34 11 8 34 74% 40 2.5 42 6.0 6 22 0
Kwity Paye 24 DE 15 639 33 4.4% 66 26 9 3 24 79% 21 3.2 73 4.0 6 27 1
Tyquan Lewis 27 DE 8 311 16 4.0% 73 15 7 2 10 90% 6 1.6 12 2.5 3 14 0
Kemoko Turay* 27 DE 13 224 9 1.4% -- 7 6 3 2 50% -- 3.0 -- 5.5 3 7 0
Dayo Odeyingbo 23 DE 10 173 6 1.2% -- 4 2 0 4 50% -- 5.8 -- 0.5 1 2 0
Yannick Ngakoue 27 DE 17 834 31 3.5% 81 23 15 7 17 53% 91 4.0 90 10.0 14 34 2
Ifeadi Odenigbo 28 DE 9 163 11 2.5% -- 7 0 3 11 64% -- 3.6 -- 0.0 3 4 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Bobby Okereke 26 MLB 17 1073 134 15.7% 21 66 18 15 69 59% 36 4.1 58 1.0 1 12 45 44% 48 5.5 24 4 2
Darius Leonard 27 OLB 16 1001 130 16.2% 16 69 26 8 76 67% 10 2.9 10 0.0 4 11 41 46% 45 7.0 47 8 4
Zaire Franklin 26 OLB 17 200 31 3.6% -- 18 3 2 21 62% -- 4.0 -- 0.0 0 1 6 50% -- 3.7 -- 2 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.11 4.24 15 83% 32 20% 13 1.18 18 0.65 11 12.6% 18 41 6.6% 21 30.1% 18 17.5% 4
2020 3.76 4.00 6 67% 18 17% 18 1.14 12 0.37 3 15.1% 6 40 6.8% 12 24.0% 20 13.6% 15
2021 3.99 4.21 15 68% 14 16% 20 1.00 4 0.54 11 11.4% 20 33 5.6% 25 26.0% 14 15.4% 15
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.94 (24) Left Tackle: 4.76 (24) Mid/Guard: 3.96 (11) Right Tackle: 4.60 (26) Right End: 3.18 (6)

Despite posting his lowest sack total since 2017, DeForest Buckner is still the straw that stirs the drink when it comes to
the Colts pass rush. He led the team in sacks, hits, and hurries despite lining up on the inside instead of coming off the edge.
🏈 Darius Leonard had a fantastic season, only missing eight tackles with a 67% run stop rate. Leonard is much better going
forward and stopping the run rather than dropping into coverage, which isn’t the norm for skinnier linebackers playing the posi-
tion. However, he has extremely long arms (95th percentile at the combine) which allow him to disengage from blocks easily.
🏈 The Colts need Kwity Paye to make the leap this year. He finished third among rookies with 27 hurries, but only converted
four of those into sacks. His development is critical to a defense that may blitz even less than last season. 🏈 The wild card on
the Colts’ defensive line is Dayo Odeyingbo. Odeyingbo tore his Achilles training for the NFL draft in 2021, but the Colts still
drafted him in the second round due to his 6-foot-6 frame and a wingspan that puts him in the 98th percentile of all defensive
ends to attend the combine. In 2021, he played in 10 games and registered just half a sack, but in Bradley’s scheme, he could
find himself rotating in on pass-rushing downs and using his initial quickness to stun guards on the interior. 🏈 Depth might
become an issue for the Colts on the interior. Behind Buckner and Grover Stewart are two late-round rookies: Curtis Brooks, a
112 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

sixth-round pick from Cincinnati, and Eric Johnson, a fifth-round pick from Missouri State. Brooks and Johnson bring versatil-
ity and pass-rush potential but may not be ready to contribute in 2022.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Kenny Moore 27 CB 17 1063 114 13.4% 1 58 18 17 35 69% 2 2.9 3 81 19.2% 46 9.9 49% 60 5.9 17 13 4
Xavier Rhodes* 32 CB 13 638 46 7.1% 63 17 5 5 7 57% 17 4.3 13 53 20.9% 30 10.6 53% 46 8.1 56 7 1
Andrew Sendejo* 35 FS 12 609 42 7.0% 68 14 6 8 17 47% 19 7.6 46 14 5.8% 61 11.7 64% 14 7.2 38 2 0
Rock Ya-Sin* 26 CB 13 591 39 6.0% 75 15 8 8 8 50% 22 4.5 14 39 16.6% 70 12.3 56% 30 4.6 2 8 0
Khari Willis* 26 SS 11 565 65 11.8% 25 28 10 4 37 46% 23 4.9 9 18 8.0% 42 14.3 33% 74 14.4 74 4 2
Isaiah Rodgers 24 CB 17 525 56 6.6% 71 26 11 6 12 58% 13 6.9 53 52 25.0% 9 11.5 50% 58 7.4 48 7 3
George Odum* 29 FS 17 471 47 5.5% -- 7 3 4 19 11% -- 11.2 -- 18 9.6% -- 15.0 50% -- 10.4 -- 2 1
Julian Blackmon 24 FS 6 376 32 10.6% -- 5 5 8 16 19% -- 11.6 -- 5 3.4% -- 13.6 40% -- 9.2 -- 1 0
T.J. Carrie* 32 CB 11 141 22 4.0% -- 5 1 1 4 50% -- 3.3 -- 15 26.8% -- 11.3 47% -- 7.4 -- 1 0
Rodney McLeod 32 FS 13 684 62 9.2% 53 20 8 5 22 41% 30 6.4 31 20 8.1% 39 11.4 40% 65 9.4 61 4 2
Brandon Facyson 28 CB 12 602 66 10.4% 19 36 10 8 22 64% 5 3.8 10 66 29.3% 2 12.6 45% 71 7.2 39 13 1
Stephon Gilmore 32 CB 8 305 18 4.6% -- 8 6 0 6 33% -- 10.7 -- 16 15.9% -- 10.4 69% -- 4.1 -- 2 2

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 19 7.7% 22 7.2% 22 24.9% 29 7.4% 22 19.3% 28 4.1% 18 -11.1% 7
2020 8 1.4% 18 -11.2% 8 4.0% 17 -13.5% 7 -1.0% 17 -18.0% 4 1.5% 18
2021 17 11.8% 23 -23.0% 2 -20.4% 4 -12.9% 10 -6.7% 7 6.5% 21 21.5% 27

Kenny Moore, perhaps the best slot corner in the entire league, made a higher percentage of his team’s plays than any other
cornerback in 2021. Being in the slot definitely helps put him in all the action, but Moore often finds the ball and makes impact-
ful plays when he gets there. 🏈 One reason the Colts moved on from Xavier Rhodes? An average of 5.0 yards after catch
allowed put him at 73rd out of 80 corners in the metric. Stephon Gilmore averaged 1.6 yards after catch allowed in eight games.
He also bettered Rhodes in both success rate and yards per pass. He’ll allow the Colts to play a little more man coverage if they
want to without the threat of being burnt on the back end. 🏈 Because of the Colts’ heavy Cover-2 scheme, Indy’s outside
corners weren’t tested very much. Rhodes was the highest targeted outside corner at 20.9%, while Kenny Moore was targeted
19.2% of the time, 46th highest in the NFL among corners. Will this change with Bradley’s Cover-3 coming to Indy? Possi-
bly, but you can’t really tell from the Raiders’ corners. Casey Hayward was the 79th most targeted corner in the league, while
Brandon Facyson (who signed with the Colts in free agency) was second. 🏈 The Colts made an interesting move trading
cornerback Rock Ya-Sin to the Raiders, especially considering Ya-Sin had the highest coverage success rate on the team. It’s
not an especially large hole, but the Colts are hoping Facyson can be the second outside corner opposite Gilmore. 🏈 Khari
Willis gave up a lot of big plays on the back end last year for the Colts. Willis was 74th out of 75 safeties in both yards allowed
per target and coverage success rate on a defense that is designed to limit the big plays. This could be why the Colts drafted
Maryland safety Nick Cross in the third round, to bring in someone who’s a bit more athletic and can make plays on the back
end. Cross is an explosive and aggressive tackler who still has a lot of room for growth as a player. He is among this year’s
youngest rookies, turning 21 right before the season begins, and his athletic profile and versatility make him an intriguing long-
term fit. 🏈 Willis surprisingly announced his retirement in June.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.4% 16 -13.3 31 -1.3 21 -2.8 25 2.4 14 17.0 1 -11.7 31
2020 2.0% 10 -3.9 21 2.0 12 8.0 2 -0.7 18 4.5 7 9.9 7
2021 0.4% 14 -5.1 22 2.9 12 3.7 7 2.3 13 -1.9 24 24.7 1

The Colts have been poor on field goals for the last three seasons but their special teams have been buoyed by strong kick
returns and, until last year, punt returns. 🏈 Isaiah Rodgers ranked eighth among individual returners in kickoff return value
after being fourth two years ago. Rodgers didn’t return a kickoff for a touchdown like he did in 2020, but he averaged 26.4 yards
per return. 🏈 Nyheim Hines had an off year on punt returns, but nobody had more punt return value from 2019 to 2020, so
 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 113

last year was just a blip. 🏈 Rodrigo Blankenship only played five games last year due to a hip injury but was 11-of-14 on
field goals before he was shut down. The plan is to have him back in 2022, but leg injuries are tricky for kickers, especially on
a joint such as the hip. 🏈 Rigoberto Sanchez had positive gross punt value for the first time since 2018 but he has been near
the bottom of the league in gross kickoff value the last two seasons. However, the Colts had strong kick coverage, and only
Buffalo and Tennessee forced more negative value on kick returns. 🏈 Wide receiver Ashton Dulin could find himself fight-
ing for a roster spot during training camp, but he helps his case with quality special teams coverage. Dulin recorded 17 tackles
on special teams, second only to New Orleans’ J.T. Gray, and had a 71% stop rate (i.e., stopping a return before it reached
average expectation). Being a really good special teamer will help you stick around in the league: just ask Matthew Slater. 🏈
Indianapolis built up the hidden special teams value both with plays they controlled and plays they had no control over. Some
of their “hidden” value comes from two blocked punts where the Colts scored touchdowns, but Colts opponents were below
average in gross punt value even without considering those blocked punts. Colts opponents also ranked 31st in the league in
gross kickoff value and 26th in field goal value. 🏈 The Colts were at the bottom of the league with just four special teams
penalties for 30 yards.
 Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 record: 3-14 Total DVOA: -31.0% (32) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.6 wins On the Clock (0-5): 21%
Pythagorean Wins: 3.3 (32) Offense: -15.1% (27) Postseason Odds: 32.5% Mediocrity (6-8): 43%
Snap-Weighted Age: 25.9 (27) Defense: 11.7% (31) Super Bowl Odds: 2.4% Playoff Contender (9-11): 29%
Average Opponent: 1.2% (10) Special Teams: -4.2% (31) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -1.5% (27) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 8%

2021: Can’t turn your head away from a trainwreck.

2022: Let’s try this again, Mr. Lawrence.

I f the Jacksonville Jaguars did anything in 2021, they proved

Murphy’s Law to be correct. The law, which states “any-
thing that can go wrong will go wrong,” was set into action
has seen in ages, yet in Jacksonville Lawrence finished 29th
in passing DVOA and threw more interceptions than touch-
downs. The offense was discombobulated, finishing 27th in
almost immediately after former Ohio State and Florida head offensive DVOA and dead last in scoring. In the middle of
coach Urban Meyer took over the Jaguars. In a way, a lot of the season, the Jaguars averaged 9.1 points per game over a
the problems that found their way onto the field during the seven-game stretch. Two Jaguars receivers ran into each other
season were a direct result of Meyer’s lack of control and un- during a play and became a viral meme.
derstanding of how the NFL works. Jacksonville tried to mesh the spread offense that made
Meyer began his tenure by hiring Chris Doyle, a former Meyer famous at Florida and Ohio State with the under-center,
strength coach at the University of Iowa who agreed to a dropback offense that Darrell Bevell brought with him from his
“separation agreement” from the Hawkeyes in the midst of stints in Detroit and Seattle. What resulted was an offense that
multiple Black players accusing Doyle of racism. After three lacked creativity, motion, and, worst of all, a vision. Meyer said
days of blowback from the media and the Fritz Pollard Alli- during the season that he wanted the offense to be extremely
ance, Doyle resigned from his job with the Jaguars. Meyer balanced, running for 250 yards and passing for 250 yards ev-
said in a press conference that he vetted everyone who was ery game. (This quote on its own betrayed Meyer’s total lack
hired, and that he knew who the real Doyle was. of understanding of the difference between the NFL and col-
When training camp came, Meyer chose not to give first lege football; last year, NFL teams only ran for 250 yards in a
overall pick Trevor Lawrence all the first-team snaps, opt- single game six times all season.) In the end, Lawrence only
ing instead for a camp “competition” between Lawrence and threw for over 250 yards four times in 2021, and star running
Gardner Minshew, who was later traded to the Eagles shortly back James Robinson only ran for over 100 yards once before
before the season started. tearing his Achilles in November. First-round draft pick Travis
Once the season began, the Jaguars faced embarrassing sto- Etienne was lost before the season started to a Lisfranc injury,
ries such as Meyer not traveling home with the team after a which turned out to be a massive detriment to the offense as
Week 4 loss in Cincinnati. Instead, he showed up at his restau- a whole. For all of Meyer’s talk of bringing in “4 to 6, A to
rant in Columbus, canoodling with a woman who was not his B” types of players, the offense majorly lacked explosiveness
wife. Then came the reports about Meyer loudly demeaning downfield, especially after DJ Chark broke his ankle in Week 4.
coaches during meetings, and the accusations of abuse from The Jaguars offense only averaged 5 yards per play. And they
former kicker Josh Lambo. Meyer didn’t know which of his were 19th in pace of play, so Meyer’s up-tempo spread scheme
players were getting snaps; when the press asked him about clearly wasn’t translating to the NFL.
that, he said he would not micromanage how often a star play- The most glaring issue with the Jaguars offense was the
er was in the game. This isn’t acceptable for a coach at any passing game. Let’s start with Lawrence. There were bright
level, let alone the highest level of football. By December, the moments, such as the myriad of throws across his body he
Jaguars had to get rid of Meyer to keep their franchise from made during the Week 4 loss to Cincinnati, or the improvisa-
spiraling to a point of no return. tion off of a bad snap in the Jaguars’ season finale against
In February, the Jaguars hired former Super Bowl-winning the Colts. However, Lawrence ultimately made a lot of rookie
coach Doug Pederson to try and turn around the franchise, mistakes, such as forcing the ball into coverage for multiple
or at least provide a form of stability that hasn’t been seen in interceptions against the Texans in Week 1. The problems
Jacksonville recently. Pederson is an offensive coach, and it were amplified by the performance of the receivers. For ex-
might take everything to fix the Jaguars offense. Lawrence’s ample, the Jaguars led the NFL with 41 drops and a 7.4% drop
rookie season is the best example of how Meyer’s inability rate after finishing with just 24 drops and the NFL’s fifth-low-
to process the NFL off the field found its way into the Jag- est drop rate (4.2%) in 2020. Dropped passes are not a particu-
uars’ performance on the field. Lawrence came into the NFL larly consistent statistic, but in Jacksonville’s case there may
as close to a sure thing of a quarterback prospect the league be an explanation for the increase: the Jaguars lost a critical
114
 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 115

2021 JAX DVOA by Week

2022 Jaguars Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%
60%
1 at WAS 7 NYG 13 at DET
40%
2 IND 8 DEN (U.K.) 14 at TEN
3 at LAC 9 LV 15 DAL 20%

4 at PHI 10 at KC 16 at NYJ (Thu.) 0%

5 HOU 11 BYE 17 at HOU -20%
6 at IND 12 BAL 18 TEN -40%
-60%
-80%
coach at the position. Jacksonville legend Keenan McCardell -100%
moved on to the Vikings after the 2020 season, the Jaguars -120%

replaced him with Sanjay Lal, and receiver play drastically

dipped. Reports came out of Jacksonville stating that receiv-
ers would constantly line up out of formation and with incor-
rect spacing. It’s difficult for any quarterback to succeed in league in defensive DVOA, ahead of only the New York Jets.
that situation, let alone a rookie. The Jaguars signed Shaquill Griffin last offseason to pair
Before his injury, Robinson was putting together another with second-year corner CJ Henderson and then drafted Ty-
good season despite seeing a lower volume of carries. Rob- son Campbell in the second round. Much like the offense, the
inson was often supplanted for long stretches of a game by defensive backs found themselves playing in ways that didn’t
Carlos Hyde despite being a superior back. Nevertheless, emphasize their talents. Campbell was moved into the slot to
Robinson finished his 2021 campaign seventh in DYAR and begin his career and played poorly, while Griffin allowed 8.7
sixth in DVOA, playing behind an offensive line that finished yards per pass and was 47th in the league among qualifying
23rd in snaps per blown block in the run game. The Jaguars cornerbacks in success rate. This could be because of the high
implemented a lot of vertically attacking runs, and Robinson amount of man coverage the Jaguars played last year, but it
benefited heavily from the switch in scheme. took over half the season for the Jaguars to adjust and play
Lawrence played a heavy role in mitigating pass pressure, more zone coverage to help their corners. Their lack of depth
but the offensive line played average at best. Cam Robinson in the secondary was evident after Henderson was traded to
finished 32nd among left tackles in snaps per blown block, the Carolina Panthers and Campbell and Griffin both missed
and his regression since his ACL injury in 2018 has been time due to lingering injuries. Special-teamers Chris Clay-
stark. He didn’t miss assignments often in the run game, but brooks and Nevin Lawson received playing time on the out-
in the passing game he left a lot to be desired. He can’t move side and were clearly unprepared for the roles they were thrust
as well as he normally did, which negatively affected his abil- into. Safety play wasn’t much better as Andrew Wingard and
ity against speed. Jawaan Taylor finished 19th among right Rayshawn Jenkins took poor angles on deep passes and were
tackles in snaps per blown block, but he also was poor in commonly picked on in man coverage.
passing situations. His problem was technique, often stepping This offseason, the Jaguars improved their depth and tal-
too wide and misplacing his hands. Meyer drafted what was ent on almost every level of the defense. Longtime lineback-
believed to be a replacement for Robinson or Taylor, but the er Myles Jack was released after a poor 2021 season. Jack
problems that plagued Lawrence and most of the rookies also dropped from 14th at his position in coverage success rate in
hit Walker Little, Jacksonville’s second-round draft pick. A 2020 to 49th in 2021, while his run stop rate fell from 69% to
lack of practice time with the starters in the preseason trickled 44%. Into Jack’s place steps Foye Oluokun, who has spent the
into the regular season, and Little only played when Robinson previous four years in Atlanta. Oluokun is a rangy linebacker
went out for the last two games. Mismanagement of the of- who rarely misses tackles; his 10% broken tackle rate would
fense was a trend for the Jaguars. have been the best among the Jaguars linebackers last season.
Defensively, the Jaguars were ultimately done in by a lack In addition, Oluokun had a 52% success rate in coverage, and
of depth as well as a lack of impact players. Former defensive was near the top for linebackers with only 2.3 average yards
coordinator Joe Cullen came from Baltimore and brought an allowed after the catch. For a team that needed to improve its
attacking, blitz-heavy game plan. The Jaguars ranked sixth in tackling, Oluokun is a huge addition. The Jaguars also spent
the league in using both five-man and six-man blitzes. This re- two high draft picks on off-ball linebackers: Devin Lloyd
sulted in a large jump in team pressure rate, but the increase from Utah in the first round and Chad Muma from Wyoming
in sack rate was not as impressive. It’s widely believed among in the third.
defensive coaches that coverage and pressure go hand in hand; But when it comes to Jaguars draft picks, all eyes will be
the better your coverage is, the more pressure you can get. For on first overall selection Travon Walker. Despite only notch-
the Jaguars, the sack numbers didn’t match the pressure rate ing 9.5 career sacks at the University of Georgia, Walker
because coverage couldn’t hold up long enough. Even on plays wowed scouts with his play against the run and potential to be
when they recorded pressure, Jacksonville ranked 31st in the a franchise player. Turning on the film from Georgia football
116 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

games, Walker would rush the passer on one down, then cover ness to play in the more zone-heavy scheme that Pederson and
a wheel route by the running back on the next. He can play offensive coordinator Press Taylor will likely use in Jackson-
all over the formation, at outside linebacker or on the interior ville. With longtime center Brandon Linder retiring, Fortner
of the line. That versatility should come in handy for new de- could start at center, or sub in at guard or center if the team
fensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. Josh Allen is the Jaguars’ feels confident in Tyler Shatley.
best pass-rusher, having notched 23 hurries and 7.5 sacks last The final major offensive addition is tight end Evan En-
year. However, he needs a more consistent complement oppo- gram, brought in to be the receiving threat the Jaguars haven’t
site him. Dawuane Smoot led the team in hurries and had six consistently had at the position. Engram isn’t a conventional
sacks, but Walker has a much higher ceiling as a power rusher in-line tight end by any means but has the athleticism to play
to pair with Allen. Foley Fatukasi also comes over from the in the slot; he’s a different type of athlete than Dan Arnold or
Jets to be another big contributor in the run game and keep Chris Manhertz.
the linebackers clean to make plays. Fatukasi led all interior But the biggest change for the Jaguars is the coaching staff,
linemen by making his average run tackle after a gain of just not the player roster. Meyer’s staff had a surprising amount of
1.1 yards last season. NFL coaching experience, considering that the man in charge
In the secondary, the Jaguars are hoping for a second-year had none. Pederson’s staff has that experience but is loaded
leap from Campbell. His play markedly improved after the with former NFL players as well, such as well-respected de-
Jaguars switched to more zone-based coverages in the sec- fensive line coach Brentson Buckner and quarterback coach
ond half of last season. Griffin should also benefit from a new Mike McCoy. Pederson will also bring the advanced use of
defensive coordinator and being fully healthy. The major ad- analytics and the fourth-down aggression he was known for
dition in the secondary is free agent Darious Williams, who in his time with the Eagles. Philadelphia never finished lower
comes to his hometown of Jacksonville from the Los Ange- than fourth in the league in Aggressiveness Index during Ped-
les Rams. Last year, Williams finished 50th in success rate erson’s tenure. Last year, the Jaguars were 12th in Aggres-
but only gave up 6.4 yards per pass, 26th among qualifying siveness Index (when Meyer was head coach), and even that
cornerbacks. Williams also finished in the top 20 for yards placement was a bit of a surprise.
allowed after the catch, a crucial number because he seems Pederson’s offense will use a lot of 12 personnel and mul-
to be headed to the slot in Jacksonville, with Campbell and tiple offensive linemen. Outside of 2017, Pederson’s teams
Griffin on the outside. But Williams’ history of playing on the finished in the top 10 each year in the usage of two tight ends
outside gives the Jaguars positional and matchup versatility. and six-lineman sets. Pederson also relies heavily on play-ac-
As offenses put their biggest receivers in the slot more often, tion. His offenses had a play-action rate above 25% each year
the Jaguars can have bigger corners like Campbell and Grif- from 2017 through 2020. The use of zone run-blocking and
fin play there while Williams matches up on the other side. RPOs combined with heavy play-action usage is what made
Against teams that are hyper spread out, Williams can’t get Pederson’s offenses so dynamic in Philadelphia, and that is
played off the field. what he’s bringing to Jacksonville.
While the Jacksonville offense may not be near the top of Mike Caldwell was Tampa Bay’s linebackers coach before
the league in terms of depth and overall talent, there are po- Pederson hired him to run the Jacksonville defense, and the
tential building blocks here. We have already mentioned Law- signatures of Tampa Bay’s recent defense include five-man
rence, Robinson, and Etienne, and in the offseason Jackson- fronts and an attacking pass-rush style. This will be a very
ville paid wide receiver Christian Kirk $72 million over four different defense than the one Jim Schwartz ran for Pederson
years with $37 million fully guaranteed. While many scoffed in Philadelphia; that defense used a 4-3 scheme that was al-
at the hefty amount of money Kirk was given, he has proven ways near the bottom of the league in blitz rate. Tampa Bay,
to be one of the better slot receivers in the league. In Arizona, on the other hand, was third in the NFL in five- and six-man
Kirk was often lined up in the slot, seeing 81 targets from that blitzes last season while also coming in fourth in pressure
position compared to 20 on the outside, and he ended up with rate. Pressure rate is something Caldwell spoke about when
23.9% DVOA on those slot targets. Kirk’s ability to separate he was hired, saying that he wants to affect the quarterback
from the slot was critical for the Cardinals, and he gives Law- more, which will help the Jaguars get more turnovers. He also
rence a downfield threat that was lacking last year. In addi- talked about putting players in their best positions to succeed,
tion, the Jaguars signed Zay Jones, a bigger outside receiver which will help young players such as Walker and Campbell
than those currently on the roster. However, Jones only saw in the long run.
31 targets out wide in Las Vegas, with a -2.6% DVOA. He has Pederson and company have a long way to go in order to get
the size and the ability to be a downfield threat, as evidenced the Jaguars to even being a .500 team; that’s what being AFC
by his 14.7-yard average depth of target. Now he just has to doormats for most of your existence will do. However, Peder-
become more consistent. son is known around the league for being a good coach who
The Jaguars seem to be confident in their additions to the can provide stability for the Jaguars. If he can get Lawrence
receiver room in free agency, because they didn’t select a and the Jaguars offense up to speed, then for the first time in
wideout in the draft. Their only offensive pick was lineman years they’ll have a quarterback. Let’s start there first.
Luke Fortner from Kentucky in the third round. Fortner has
the positional versatility to play guard or center and the quick- J.P. Acosta
 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 117

2021 Jaguars by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at HOU L 2% 21 37 395 449 -3 -68% -41% 22% -6% Total DVOA -15.1% 27 11.7% 31
2 DEN L 0% 13 23 189 398 -2 -69% -46% 29% 6% Unadjusted VOA -16.8% 27 12.6% 31
3 ARI L 0% 19 31 361 407 -3 -34% -10% 20% -5% Weighted Trend -17.6% 27 8.2% 28
4 at CIN L 12% 21 24 341 420 0 -7% 36% 41% -2% Variance 10.0% 25 9.3% 28
5 TEN L 3% 19 37 454 368 -2 -32% 25% 45% -12% Average Opponent -1.8% 7 -0.7% 19
6 MIA W 81% 23 20 396 431 0 5% 16% 19% 7%
7 BYE Passing -10.3% 30 27.2% 31
8 at SEA L 21% 7 31 309 229 -1 -23% -35% -15% -3% Rushing -8.9% 18 -5.9% 19
9 BUF W 87% 9 6 218 301 2 37% -19% -61% -5%
First Down -1.0% 18 4.1% 23
10 at IND L 13% 17 23 331 295 -1 -21% -9% -11% -23%
Second Down -40.0% 32 16.7% 31
11 SF L 11% 10 30 200 333 -2 -8% -18% -5% 5%
Third Down -3.0% 18 17.1% 28
12 ATL L 4% 14 21 357 332 -1 -59% -28% 29% -2%
13 at LAR L 0% 7 37 197 418 -2 -60% -50% 13% 3% First Half -8.7% 22 11.3% 30
14 at TEN L 0% 0 20 192 263 -4 -66% -74% -2% 6% Second Half -21.1% 28 12.3% 28
15 HOU L 6% 16 30 296 281 1 -36% 0% 15% -21%
16 at NYJ L 3% 21 26 384 373 -1 -47% -4% 20% -24% Red Zone -20.3% 28 3.3% 21
17 at NE L 0% 10 50 253 471 -3 -120% -62% 59% 0% Late and Close -6.1% 24 6.7% 22
18 IND W 100% 26 11 318 233 2 69% 23% -42% 4%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 10-6 11.9 9.0 417 268 +10 13.8% 8 0.4% 15 -15.9% 2 -2.5% 24 31.5 15 4.1 1 26.1 28 25.9 22 26.0 11
2018 5-11 5.7 6.0 245 316 -12 -8.5% 22 -21.7% 30 -8.8% 7 4.4% 4 87.1 32 15.4 5 26.3 21 26.2 16 25.6 24
2019 6-10 5.3 6.4 300 397 -1 -19.4% 28 -9.9% 24 12.3% 29 2.7% 6 55.4 27 44.8 25 25.3 32 25.6 26 25.8 17
2020 1-15 3.7 4.1 306 492 -8 -28.0% 31 -12.6% 27 15.2% 31 -0.1% 18 18.9 6 44.4 19 26.1 24 24.9 32 25.0 31
2021 3-14 3.3 4.7 253 457 -20 -31.0% 32 -15.1% 27 11.7% 31 -4.2% 31 67.9 28 19.2 2 26.4 18 25.6 26 25.5 27

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

JAX Offense JAX Offense vs. Opponents JAX Defense JAX Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 68% 5.6 -7.6% 26% Base 21% 4.8 -15.0% 57% Base 32% 5.0 8.9% 11 53% 6.4 21.3%
12 23% 4.7 -15.4% 58% Nickel 66% 5.5 -10.5% 32% Nickel 52% 6.2 14.1% 12 20% 4.8 -5.1%
01 3% 4.1 -43.9% 18% Dime+ 12% 4.7 -9.8% 6% Dime+ 13% 6.9 33.1% 21 10% 6.6 27.4%
13 2% 4.4 -22.5% 58% Goal Line 1% 1.3 98.7% 67% Goal Line 1% 0.3 -31.8% 13 8% 4.4 3.0%
10 2% 3.3 -18.1% 6% Big 2% 2.2 -48.0% 612 3% 4.9 -6.7%
10 3% 5.0 -57.8%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 37% 22 Form: Single Back 85% 13 Rush 3 6.1% 11 4 DB 32% 5 Play Action 27% 17
Runs, first down 43% 28 Form: Empty Back 11% 7 Rush 4 61.7% 28 5 DB 52% 28 Offensive Motion 39% 23
Runs, second-long 29% 18 Form: Multi Back 4% 26 Rush 5 25.0% 6 6+ DB 13% 18 Avg Box (Off) 6.31 29
Runs, power sit. 46% 31 Pers: 3+ WR 73% 6 Rush 6+ 7.3% 6 Man Coverage 29% 16 Avg Box (Def) 6.77 2
Runs, behind 2H 26% 20 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 27% 21 Edge Rusher Sacks 39.1% 27 CB by Sides 69% 21 Offensive Pace 31.36 19
Pass, ahead 2H 33% 31 Pers: 6+ OL 1% 25 Interior DL Sacks 46.9% 4 S/CB Cover Ratio 30% 10 Defensive Pace 32.12 29
Run-Pass Options 13% 13 Shotgun/Pistol 72% 9 Second Level Sacks 14.1% 19 DB Blitz 13% 6 Go for it on 4th 1.13 12
118 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Trevor Lawrence got worse the more pass-rushers he faced in his rookie season. When Lawrence faced three pass-rushers,
the Jaguars had 6.8 yards per play and 16.6% DVOA. With four pass-rushers, those numbers became 6.1 and -4.7% DVOA.
Against a blitz of five or more pass-rushers, the Jaguars had 3.9 yards per play and -35.7% DVOA. 🏈 Tackling continues to
be an issue for the Jacksonville defense, which ranked second in the league (behind only Detroit) with 142 broken tackles. Sur-
prisingly, this didn’t translate to a high average of yards after the catch; the Jaguars didn’t give up any more YAC than expected
given the passes they faced. 🏈 Jacksonville was far better against runs from single-back formations (4.1 yards, -10.1%
DVOA) compared to runs from multi-back formations (4.7 yards, 13.8% DVOA). However, this does not appear to be a split
with any consistency from year to year. In 2020, Jacksonville was much better against multi-back runs than against single-back
runs. 🏈 If we include muffed punts and kickoffs, the Jaguars had the worst fumble recovery rate in the league at 32%. That
included recovering just seven of 18 fumbles on offense and only two of eight on defense. 🏈 The listed Aggressiveness
Index is for Urban Meyer; interim coach Darrell Bevell was more conservative with an AI of 0.89.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Lawrence -345 -19.5% 631 3403 5.4 4.6 59.9% 12 16 M.Jones 63 -6.1% 120 73 832 11.4 1.6 4 61%
L.Shenault -112 -27.7% 100 63 619 9.8 6.2 0 63%
L.Treadwell 76 6.0% 51 33 434 13.2 3.7 1 65%
J.Agnew -7 -14.9% 39 24 229 9.5 4.9 1 62%
T.Austin* -31 -23.6% 37 24 213 8.9 2.8 1 65%
DJ Chark* 3 -10.7% 22 7 154 22.0 3.4 2 32%
C.Kirk 286 23.2% 101 75 982 13.1 3.0 5 74%
Rushing D.Arnold 2 -6.7% 41 28 324 11.6 5.7 0 68%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc J.O'Shaughnessy* -27 -18.7% 34 24 244 10.2 4.8 0 71%
J.Robinson 170 15.4% 164 767 4.7 8 2 49% J.Hollister* -14 -21.1% 14 9 55 6.1 3.4 1 64%
C.Hyde* -8 -11.0% 72 253 3.5 1 2 49% L.Farrell -18 -27.9% 11 7 56 8.0 4.0 0 64%
T.Lawrence 24 -5.5% 66 343 5.2 2 2 - C.Manhertz 14 14.5% 9 6 71 11.8 4.3 1 67%
D.Ogunbowale* -27 -23.4% 43 137 3.2 1 0 40% E.Engram -81 -24.2% 73 46 408 8.9 4.0 3 63%
R.Armstead 18 21.4% 15 80 5.3 0 0 53% J.Robinson -78 -44.2% 46 31 222 7.2 7.4 0 67%
L.Shenault 16 -11.8% 11 41 3.7 0 0 - D.Ogunbowale* -10 -22.3% 21 13 114 8.8 7.7 1 62%
J.Agnew 65 129.2% 7 111 15.9 1 0 - C.Hyde* -42 -52.8% 21 12 65 5.4 6.3 0 57%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Jawaan Taylor RT 25 17/17 1085 14 5.0 20 9 Tyler Shatley C 31 17/8 533 2 0.0 3 2
Andrew Norwell* LG 31 17/17 1079 10 1.5 14 8 Walker Little LT 23 9/3 225 0 1.5 6 1
Cam Robinson LT 27 14/14 857 4 1.5 20 10 A.J. Cann* RG 31 4/4 199 0 1.0 7 3
Ben Bartch RG 24 15/11 707 2 1.0 13 5 Brandon Scherff RG 31 11/11 697 6 1.0 8 1
Brandon Linder* C 30 9/9 552 2 0.0 4 4

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.17 3.88 27 63% 20 20% 23 1.02 27 1.09 4 11.4% 25 41 7.0% 16 29.4% 13 12.2% 8 44
2020 4.41 4.48 11 73% 7 15% 7 1.22 15 0.68 19 10.1% 17 44 7.6% 25 24.8% 17 15.7% 30 24
2021 4.20 4.39 13 69% 15 16% 9 1.14 24 0.54 19 12.5% 23 32 5.6% 10 26.0% 16 13.2% 13 23
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.99 (6) Left Tackle: 4.21 (19) Mid/Guard: 4.45 (10) Right Tackle: 3.07 (31) Right End: 4.38 (13)

Trevor Lawrence displayed the pocket presence of a veteran throughout the entire season, from subtle shifts of weight to his
back foot to full-on pocket escapes. That’s the difference between Jacksonville’s pressure rate and adjusted sack rate. 🏈 Left
tackle Cam Robinson signed an extension in the offseason, but his play has often left a lot to be desired. Last year, Robinson
ranked 32nd out of 37 left tackles in snaps per blown block, with a particular problem on pass plays. The Jaguars didn’t draft
anyone at his position or sign anyone in free agency, so it’s clear they have faith in Robinson to turn it around. 🏈 Brandon
Scherff, signed away from Washington for three years and $30 million in guarantees, finished third among right guards in snaps
per blown block in 2021. He had ranked 14th and fifth the previous two seasons. Despite being injury-prone, his presence and
overall talent should help the Jaguars stay consistently around league average. 🏈 With the retirement of Brandon Linder, the
 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 119

Jaguars lose one of the better centers in the NFL. In an injury-plagued 2021, Linder finished 14th among centers in snaps per
blown block. However, there are ample options to replace Linder. Tyler Shatley, Linder’s backup last year, finished fifth among
centers in snaps per blown block in 19 fewer snaps than Linder. Jacksonville also used a third-round pick on Luke Fortner from
Kentucky, a physical and agile center who can also play guard. Right now it seems that Shatley has the upper hand, but don’t be
surprised if Fortner plays his way into the starting lineup. 🏈 Andrew Norwell is now in Washington, and it seems like the
new Jaguars brass loves what they’ve seen from Ben Bartch. The third-year guard finished 24th among right guards in snaps
per blown block, coming in after A.J. Cann was lost for the season. He must get better in pass protection (13 blown blocks in
passing situations) to keep his potential starting role, but with new coaching, improvement should come.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Malcom Brown 28 DT 17 677 58 6.6% 24 37 4 4 51 61% 80 3.0 74 2.0 1 8 1
Dawuane Smoot 27 DE 16 676 39 4.7% 62 29 12 7 26 65% 67 2.6 54 6.0 10 29 4
Roy Robertson-Harris 29 DE 14 547 39 5.4% 52 31 6 5 33 79% 13 2.4 35 3.0 6 17 2
Adam Gotsis 30 DE 16 442 27 3.3% 91 23 9 5 24 83% 5 1.8 9 3.0 4 8 0
DaVon Hamilton 25 DT 16 442 48 5.8% 40 35 4 2 45 71% 43 2.8 64 1.0 1 6 2
Taven Bryan* 26 DT 15 299 15 1.9% -- 12 6 1 9 89% -- 1.6 -- 2.0 6 8 0
Folorunso Fatukasi 27 DT 15 559 46 5.7% 43 41 10 3 45 91% 1 1.1 1 0.0 6 6 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Josh Allen 25 OLB 16 768 75 9.1% 3 49 20 7 52 62% 79 4.1 94 7.5 7 23 2
Jihad Ward* 28 DE 17 457 32 3.6% 78 18 8 6 22 45% 98 4.2 95 2.0 5 9 0
K'Lavon Chaisson 23 OLB 15 384 31 4.0% -- 20 6 9 21 76% -- 2.1 -- 1.0 3 11 0
Arden Key 26 DE 17 374 22 2.6% -- 16 9 3 12 50% -- 3.7 -- 6.5 11 18 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Myles Jack* 27 ILB 15 919 108 14.0% 31 38 9 10 61 44% 78 4.7 77 0.0 2 5 34 44% 49 5.7 27 0 0
Damien Wilson* 29 ILB 17 867 109 12.4% 40 55 17 12 66 56% 47 3.5 25 3.0 2 6 37 59% 15 6.5 39 5 1
Shaquille Quarterman 25 ILB 17 142 25 2.9% -- 14 3 1 19 68% -- 4.1 -- 0.0 0 0 5 80% -- 2.0 -- 0 0
Foyesade Oluokun 27 ILB 17 1149 198 21.4% 1 80 23 10 121 44% 79 4.6 75 2.0 5 5 33 52% 34 7.4 53 6 3

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 5.31 4.62 27 64% 17 18% 17 1.38 29 1.60 32 12.9% 16 47 8.1% 6 31.8% 10 14.8% 18
2020 4.84 4.42 17 66% 15 19% 12 1.30 20 1.19 30 16.5% 4 18 4.2% 30 20.2% 29 9.9% 29
2021 4.05 4.54 23 57% 2 18% 14 1.11 10 0.44 5 11.1% 23 32 5.5% 27 24.9% 17 13.5% 20
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.70 (22) Left Tackle: 4.63 (21) Mid/Guard: 4.44 (20) Right Tackle: 4.59 (25) Right End: 4.79 (21)

If you turn to our Rookie Projections on page 459, you will notice that Travon Walker ends up on top of our SackSEER edge
rusher projections, slightly ahead of Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, despite his lack of production in college. The
best pass-rush prospects have both strong workout scores and college production, but surprisingly, the workout scores are a
more significant indicator of NFL success. Ezekiel Ansah and Clay Matthews, for example, had fewer sacks in college than
Walker and developed into strong professional pass-rushers. 🏈 The explosive and underrated Dawuane Smoot dropped 10
pounds before last season and went on to lead the Jaguars with 29 hurries. This could be due to the presence of Josh Allen on
the other side, but Smoot has turned himself into a good rotational pass-rusher for the Jaguars. 🏈 Linebacker Foye Oluokun
will pair with two rookies, Devin Lloyd (Utah, first round) and Chad Muma (Wyoming, third round). Lloyd is a more downhill
player, with the versatility to add on as a blitzer in the passing game. Muma’s game complements Lloyd’s well as he is better
as a true linebacker, stacking and shedding against the run and playing underneath zones in coverage. Jaguars defensive coor-
dinator Mike Caldwell comes from Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers used multiple off-ball linebackers such as Devin White
and Lavonte David to be one of the best teams in the league against the run without sacrificing anything against the pass, due
to the linebackers’ abilities to blitz and play in coverage. This is the goal for Oluokun, Lloyd, and Muma. 🏈 Due to all of
the additions made to the front seven in the offseason, third-year edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson finds himself on the roster
bubble. Since being drafted in the first round by the Jaguars two years ago, Chaisson has been a significant disappointment,
120 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

only having one career sack and six tackles for loss. He dropped from 51% of defensive snaps in his rookie season to 39% in
his second. 🏈 Roy Robertson-Harris finished third on the team in total hurries from his interior spot. He played 60% of
the defensive snaps last year, a large majority of them from the interior. Robertson-Harris has a similar build and play style to
William Gholston, whom Caldwell worked with in Tampa Bay, so his hurry numbers could increase even more in 2022. 🏈
Adam Gotsis always seems to pop up on Jaguars film. Gotsis had three sacks and six tackles for loss in rotational duty, but his
impact was mainly felt in the run game. Gotsis made his average run tackle after a gain of 1.8 yards last season, which finished
in the top 10 for interior linemen. The Jaguars love his ability to make a big play when needed, and he was rewarded with a
new two-year deal in the offseason.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Andrew Wingard 26 FS 15 932 87 11.2% 30 31 8 19 48 44% 27 6.0 22 12 3.6% 74 10.2 58% 28 6.9 35 1 1
Shaquill Griffin 27 CB 14 874 56 7.8% 54 28 9 5 11 45% 38 4.7 20 55 17.8% 62 10.2 53% 47 8.1 57 7 0
Tyson Campbell 22 CB 15 864 83 10.7% 15 39 17 9 25 48% 34 7.0 54 64 21.0% 29 12.0 45% 73 8.8 69 10 2
Rayshawn Jenkins 28 SS 14 838 69 9.6% 50 29 10 7 32 47% 20 6.4 29 26 8.8% 33 12.5 69% 5 6.9 36 3 0
Rudy Ford 28 SS 15 423 53 6.8% 70 22 9 6 13 69% 2 4.5 8 29 19.4% 2 6.0 41% 64 7.6 47 3 1
Nevin Lawson* 31 CB 12 325 32 5.2% -- 12 5 3 10 50% -- 7.1 -- 24 20.9% -- 8.9 46% -- 5.3 -- 5 1
Andre Cisco 22 FS 17 245 23 2.6% -- 5 1 2 10 20% -- 12.4 -- 4 4.6% -- 18.0 50% -- 4.0 -- 2 0
Tre Herndon 26 CB 9 207 17 3.7% -- 4 3 4 3 33% -- 6.7 -- 15 20.5% -- 6.6 7% -- 9.7 -- 0 0
Daniel Thomas 24 SS 16 204 24 2.9% -- 1 0 1 15 7% -- 8.2 -- 6 8.3% -- 6.8 50% -- 4.2 -- 0 0
Chris Claybrooks 25 CB 16 199 24 2.9% -- 7 2 3 9 22% -- 6.4 -- 20 28.5% -- 11.8 25% -- 10.8 -- 2 0
Darious Williams 29 CB 14 925 80 10.5% 18 22 5 8 17 24% 70 7.3 60 73 20.8% 31 11.3 52% 50 6.4 26 9 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 22 -11.4% 7 6.2% 20 18.2% 25 -3.1% 19 5.6% 15 23.0% 30 25.8% 28
2020 31 3.1% 19 -15.8% 5 19.7% 28 4.1% 18 1.7% 21 25.5% 30 -3.2% 16
2021 31 32.8% 32 32.5% 30 -10.2% 8 14.4% 29 25.4% 31 5.6% 20 -21.1% 2

Rookie Tyson Campbell was better than his charting statistics suggest. Injuries and position changes hampered his early 2021
season, but after CJ Henderson was traded to Carolina, Campbell stepped into the outside corner role and flourished in a zone
scheme that allowed him to play downhill and aggressively on the ball. Once he recovered from a midseason toe injury around
Week 10, Campbell allowed only 5.7 yards per pass and improved to a 49% success rate. He should be a cornerstone for the
future of the Jaguars defense. 🏈 Starting safeties Andrew Wingard and Rayshawn Jenkins were both liabilities in the passing
game and had tackling issues, especially Wingard, who was tied for the NFL’s sixth-highest total of broken tackles. 🏈 We
expect to see a lot more of Andre Cisco in 2022, probably in Wingard’s place. Cisco isn’t necessarily fast but showed great
range at Syracuse and picked off 13 passes in three college seasons. Last year, Cisco was known for making plays in practice
and on special teams but didn’t get into many games on defense. Urban Meyer was asked after the Week 14 loss to Tennessee
about Cisco’s lack of playing time and replied that Cisco’s defensive snaps were increasing consistently. Cisco hadn’t played a
single defensive snap that day. That’s the Urban Meyer experience, folks. 🏈 The Jaguars used late draft picks to add some
depth at cornerback with Gregory Junior (sixth round) and Montaric Brown (seventh round). Junior is a size-and-speed devel-
opmental project, the first-ever NFL draft pick out of Division II Ouachita Baptist. Brown is more developed, an outside zone
corner who scored high in SIS charting at Arkansas last season but struggles with man coverage and run support.
 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 121

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 2.7% 6 8.5 3 0.5 15 -2.4 24 12.2 1 -5.1 29 2.1 14
2020 -0.1% 18 -8.2 29 0.7 16 -5.3 32 6.2 8 6.1 3 15.4 3
2021 -4.2% 31 -7.8 30 -16.9 31 0.5 14 3.5 8 -1.5 23 -5.6 24

Logan Cooke has been one of the better punters in the league since 2019 and continued to punt at a near-Pro Bowl level in
2021. Cooke was ninth last year in net value and fifth in gross value (based on the value of field position if every return of a
Cooke punt had been exactly average). The Jaguars have punted a lot recently, and Cooke’s reliability in that department has
been a bright spot in dark times for Jacksonville. 🏈 The kicking situation in 2021 was a lot cloudier. Josh Lambo, still
recovering from a 2020 hip injury, missed his first three field goals as well as two extra points in Week 3. Jacksonville replaced
him with Matthew Wright, who missed his first field goal attempt too. The Jaguars didn’t make a field goal until Week 6. 🏈
Wright and Cooke were close to average sharing kickoff duties, but the Jaguars’ kick coverage was awful. Jacksonville gave
up six returns of at least 40 yards, including two touchdowns; only Denver gave up more value on kick returns. 🏈 So who
kicks for Jacksonville in 2022? Right now, two candidates are on the roster: Ryan Santoso, who was on four different teams
last season, and Andrew Mevis, a rookie who kicked for Fordham and Iowa State. The answer is probably “somebody cut by
another NFL team in August.” 🏈 Jamal Agnew is currently on the shelf with a hip injury but should be ready for the start
of the 2022 season. His numbers in 2021 were mediocre but our metrics had him as one of the league’s top kickoff and punt
returners in both 2019 and 2020. Note that Agnew’s record-setting 109-yard field goal return for a touchdown against Arizona
is not included in Jacksonville’s special teams DVOA because field goal returns don’t come around very often. Quite a special
play, though.
 Kansas City Chiefs
2021 record: 12-5 Total DVOA: 17.3% (7) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.0 wins On the Clock (0-5): 10%
Pythagorean Wins: 11.4 (5) Offense: 18.1% (3) Postseason Odds: 50.7% Mediocrity (6-8): 32%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.1 (20) Defense: 4.5% (24) Super Bowl Odds: 8.2% Playoff Contender (9-11): 41%
Average Opponent: 1.6% (6) Special Teams: 3.7% (3) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 2.1% (3) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 18%

2021: Those were the days, my friend/We thought they’d never end/We’d sing and dance forever and a day…

2022: Oh, my friend, we’re older but no wiser/For in our hearts, the dreams are still the same

T he Tyreek Hill trade felt like the end of a summer romance.

It was not the end of the world, though it felt that way, even
for many non-Chiefs fans, for a few moody March sunsets. It
more easily replaced than a big-play receiver. The 2018 Pa-
triots also won a Super Bowl despite a decline in offensive
DVOA, but again: their top loss was a running back. On aver-
was not even the end of an era: Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, age, teams that lost more than 450 yards above replacement
Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and others are still in Kansas City level in one offseason fell from the top five in DVOA to the
and in the playoff conversation. But it was the end of a feeling: top 15 in DVOA the following year. Such a tumble would turn
of endless summer, of eternal youth, of anything-can-happen the Chiefs from what looked for a few seasons like the Team
potential. The Chiefs will win again, just as most of us are of the Generation into just another AFC contender.
lucky enough to love again after that first bittersweet farewell Net DYAR gained/lost is one of the metrics in the Football
on the beach. But the boardwalk is boarded up. The Beatles Outsiders projection system, but it’s a rather blunt tool in iso-
have broken up. It’s Monday morning in Kansas City. lation. For example, Byron Pringle (202 DYAR) is considered
The Chiefs didn’t just lose their top wide receiver and a a major departure even though he probably was just living
sense of lyrical wonder when they were (essentially) forced off the fat of the Chiefs land in 2021. Similarly, arrivals JuJu
to trade Hill for draft picks and cap space in a fit of dreary Smith-Schuster (28 DYAR in 2020) and Marquez Valdes-
pragmatism at the start of free agency. As we wrote on our Scantling (minus-8 DYAR) don’t move the needle much even
website in April, Hill’s departure was the watershed moment though they look like better players than Pringle on paper and
in an offseason that saw the Chiefs lose the most offensive on film. The same goes for departing running back Darrel
DYAR of any team of the 21st century (Table 1). Williams (273 DYAR) compared to the arriving Ronald Jones
Ten of the 11 teams that lost comparable amounts of DYAR (85).
to the Chiefs also declined in DVOA the next season—some It’s worth listening to what our system is trying to tell us
of them modestly, a few drastically. The 2006 Colts not only about these transactions, however. If Pringle received a bump
improved but won the Super Bowl, though their most signifi- for playing with Mahomes, why didn’t MVS get a similar
cant loss was Edgerrin James; even the best running back is bump from playing with Aaron Rodgers? Williams racked up

Table 1. Biggest Net DYAR Loss, 2001-2022

DYAR DVOA
Year Team Rk DVOA Rk Players Out Players In
Change Y-1
2022 KC -734 18.1% 3 -- -- T.Hill (359), D.Williams (273), B.Pringle (202), D.Robinson (13) R.Jones (85), J.Smith-Schuster (est. 28)
2014 DEN -713 34.2% 1 20.3% 3 E.Decker (381), K.Moreno (363) E.Sanders (37)
2013 NE -686 31.1% 1 16.5% 4 W.Welker (272), D.Woodhead (250), B.Lloyd (156), A.Hernandez (55) D.Amendola (46)
2015 NO -677 10.1% 8 9.8% 8 K.Stills (285), P.Thomas (185), J.Graham (124), T.Cadet (57), N.Toon (53) C.J.Spiller (28)
2018 NE -666 27.9% 1 14.7% 5 D.Lewis (363), B.Cooks (264), D.Amendola (138), M.Gillislee (47) C.Patterson (77), J.Edelman (est. 68)
2006 IND -577 25.1% 3 29.4% 1 E.James (527), T.Walters (51) NONE
2004 SF -536 7.8% 11 -22.0% 29 T.Owens (162), G.Hearst (157), T.Streets (147), J.Weaver (70) NONE
2009 NYG -522 19.3% 1 8.8% 12 D.Ward (359), P.Burress (91), A.Toomer (72) NONE
2017 WAS -520 15.5% 5 -3.8% 20 P.Garcon (262), D.Jackson (241), M.Jones (128) T.Pryor (112)
2015 GB -482 25.2% 1 2.7% 11 J.Nelson (482) NONE
2013 STL -479 -4.1% 19 -9.7% 22 B.Gibson (232), S.Jackson (219), D.Amendola (46) J.Cook (17)
2017 BUF -477 10.5% 10 -11.1% 26 M.Gillislee (256), R.Woods (117), S.Watkins (48), J.Hunter (46) NONE
AVG 18.4% 5.5 5.1% 12.8
Note: Only players above 0 DYAR are considered.

122
 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 123

2021 KC DVOA by Week

2022 Chiefs Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at ARI 7 at SF 13 at CIN
2 LAC (Thu.) 8 BYE 14 at DEN 40%
3 at IND 9 TEN 15 at HOU 20%
4 at TB 10 JAX 16 SEA (Sat.)
0%
5 LV (Mon.) 11 at LAC 17 DEN
6 BUF 12 LAR 18 at LV -20%

-40%

-60%

significant DYAR as a committee back for a championship- -80%

caliber offense, while Jones racked up far less DYAR as a -100%

committee back for another championship-caliber offense.

Smith-Schuster, while a famous name, hasn’t been healthy
and significantly above replacement level at the same time
since 2018. And Table 1 is full of departures whose gaudy highest total since 2018 and third in the NFL in 2021. Mean-
DYAR totals were pumped up by Tom Brady, Peyton Man- while, the Chiefs offense produced just 58 passing plays of 20
ning, Drew Brees, or Rodgers. Our methods tell us that signif- or more yards, their lowest total since Alex Smith was their
icant skill-position losses are difficult for even offenses with quarterback in 2017.
Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks to replace. And no team When the Chiefs defense was off to its historically awful
this century has suffered as significant a set of losses as the start, Mahomes (with Reid as his play-calling enabler) tried
2022 Chiefs. to compensate by scoring two touchdowns with every throw.
Of course, the Chiefs got quite a bit back in exchange for Defenses countered by sitting back in two-deep looks and
Hill. The draft picks they received from the Dolphins con- waiting for a mistake. The Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans
tributed to significant reinforcements for their defense, head- got what they wanted: multi-turnover games by an offense
lined by first-round picks Trent McDuffie and George Kar- that appeared frustrated and impatient that it could not just
laftis, plus another playmaker for the offense in receiver Skyy salt the game away with a few 50-yard chunk plays.
Moore. The cap space the Chiefs saved was applied to a new “Two deep safeties are Mahomes’ KRYPTONITE” became
contract for Frank Clark and additions including MVS, Smith- a silly midseason talking point among those who only dabble
Schuster, Jones, and safety Justin Reid. And the clarity that in film study and analytics when it’s fashionable or profit-
came from sudden inflation on the receiver contract market able. The truth was much more nuanced. Opponents generally
pushed the Chiefs toward a philosophical shift from go-for- played both safeties deep against Mahomes and the Chiefs be-
broke tactics to something more sustainable, which was be- cause they had no choice: it’s a tactic of last resort. Mahomes
coming increasingly necessary. was more likely to challenge a defense playing on its heels
The Chiefs defense posted the eighth-worst DVOA of all than, say, Kirk Cousins, which resulted in a lower completion
time through the first five games of the 2021 season. Their rate and higher sack and interception rates than some less-
defense improved significantly in midseason, only to crash effective quarterbacks. When defenses such as the Titans had
hard in Week 17 and play poorly, particularly against the pass, the luxury of playing two-deep shells because they were pro-
in the postseason. The cap-strapped Chiefs had zero chance tecting a lead, Mahomes took even more risks, and the Chiefs
this offseason of retaining free-agent cornerback Charvarius got caught in a cycle that made their offense look sloppy and
Ward and little chance of keeping Tyrann Mathieu, their two Mahomes ordinary.
best players in the secondary. Signing Hill would have made The numbers illustrate this cycle. Mahomes faced defenses
keeping Clark and adding Reid as a Mathieu’s replacement classified as Cover-2, Man-2, Cover-4, or Prevent by Sports
impossible while leaving the Chiefs with just one top-50 draft Info Solutions on 300 dropbacks and 256 pass attempts, by far
pick with which to patch gaping rifts on the defensive line and the most of any quarterback in the league. Mahomes’ adjusted
secondary. net yards per attempt of 6.2 ranked an unspectacular 17th in
Whatever patchwork defense the Chiefs might have cob- the league, in part because he threw seven interceptions and
bled together without the Hill trade was guaranteed to rank just four touchdowns.
lower than 23rd in DVOA, which is where the Chiefs finished Six of those interceptions against two-deep shells came in
last year. That would only have placed more strain on an of- the first seven Chiefs games. Several of them, it should be
fense which was beginning to show signs of overheating after noted, glanced off the hands of receivers such as Hill or the
four seasons of running at full speed. legendary Marcus Kemp, with Mahomes sprinkling in some
The Chiefs lost 25 regular-season turnovers in 2021, their ill-advised attempts to be a superhero (i.e., his Week 2 bloop-
highest total since 2012, when Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn er to Tavon Young, when he flung the ball randomly into the
took turns quarterbacking a 2-14 team coached by Romeo middle of the field while being dragged to the turf). Deep-
Crennel. Their offense committed 57 accepted penalties, its zone tactics did indeed make Mahomes look mortal, but the
124 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chiefs’ issue wasn’t so much an inability to execute against ing up Hill’s deep responsibilities, while Hardman and Smith-
two-deep shells as it was a need to constantly execute against Schuster gobble up some of Hill’s screens-and-shallow-drags
two-deep shells because their defense treated every Sunday action and Moore and Smith-Schuster share the intermediate
like the NBA All-Star Game. responsibilities that formerly fell to Pringle and Demarcus
Reid eventually downshifted a bit on offense. Per Sports Robinson.
Info Solutions, the Chiefs attempted 90 RPO passes, the fifth- Add up all the new offensive faces, throw in another signa-
highest figure in the league, and they rushed 170 times on ture Travis Kelce season, and it still doesn’t quite add up to
RPOs, the second-highest figure in the league. On a related just lining up Hill and watching the defense retreat. But op-
note, the Chiefs rushed against boxes of six defenders or few- posing defenses will still have plenty of matchup worries and
er 217 times, tied with the Eagles for the second-highest total reasons to keep their safeties on their heels. And Mahomes,
in the NFL behind the Cardinals. Reid, and the still-wobbly defense may benefit from a man-
The increased emphasis on quick passing and common- date to spread the ball around a bit more instead of building
sense rushing coincided with the arrival of edge rusher Mel- whole game plans around Hill rainmakers.
vin Ingram at the trade deadline, Chris Jones’ shift back from Trading Hill gave the Chiefs their best chance at reclaiming
the edge to his natural defensive tackle position, and the the success they enjoyed last November-through-mid-January.
return from injury of cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, the three But what about reclaiming the success the Chiefs enjoyed as
main causes of the Kansas City defense’s return to normalcy. the DVOA leaders of 2018, Super Bowl champions of 2019,
The offensive turnovers subsided, and soon the Chiefs were and AFC champions of 2020? Our projections tell us that’s
stomping playoff-bound opponents by scores such as 48-9 and unlikely for now. The departures of Hill, Ward, Mathieu, and
36-10, outlasting the Bills in a playoff shootout, and taking a others sting too much, and both the division and conference
21-3 lead over the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. have grown too strong. The Chiefs defense will stay out of
Then the too-smart-to-pay-attention-in-class Chiefs returned infamy’s way but won’t be very good; the offense will be very
and kept making stupid goal-line decisions until the Bengals good but no longer capable of uprooting everything in its path.
came back to beat them in overtime. The Chiefs remain in the Super Bowl chase group, but the
The 2021 rollercoaster illustrated that the time was coming Buffalo Bills have replaced them as the team way out in front
for the Chiefs to get a haircut and a day job. They didn’t want of the conference field.
to or plan to do so this offseason, but Davante Adams’ contract The Chiefs have, however, exchanged an expensive, unlike-
with the Raiders caused Hill to increase his asking price, forc- ly effort to capture one more championship in a short window
ing the Chiefs’ hand. Keeping Hill would have pushed them for an opportunity to open another extended window in the
further down the path of erratic brilliance that was becoming near future, while Mahomes is still well within his prime. A
increasingly self-destructive. new nucleus could form around youngsters McDuffie, Kar-
The rebuilt Chiefs offense still mixes explosive potential laftis, Sneed, Juan Thornhill, Nick Bolton, and others on de-
with the ability to sustain drives if Reid and Mahomes feel fense, with Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Moore, Hardman,
like doing so. Mecole Hardman, aka Diet Tyreek, actually and perhaps Clyde Edwards-Helaire headlining a new sup-
produced more 40-plus-yard passing plays in 2021 (four) than porting cast on offense. It helps that Reid and Mahomes can
Hill (three). Hardman can replicate Hill’s pure blurry speed make ordinary offensive players look great and create a cush-
and acceleration, if little else about his game. Smith-Schuster ion for a young defense while it finds itself. A more balanced
is one year removed from a 97-catch season in which his aver- version of the Chiefs should be ready to pull out of pit row by
age depth of target of 4.4 yards was the lowest by far of any the time Tom Brady really retires, the Rams go bankrupt, and
wide receiver with more than 100 targets. He is likely to be the Bills start to feel the gravitational pull of the salary cap.
a better player when paired with a quarterback who doesn’t So yes, the Summer of Love is over, moonchildren. But the
need a baseball windup to throw the ball 15 feet. Valdes- Chiefs are not saying goodbye, just “see ya later.”
Scantling caught 16 passes of 25-plus air yards over the last
three seasons. It’s easy to imagine Hardman and MVS divvy- Mike Tanier
 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 125

2021 Chiefs by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 CLE W 44% 33 29 397 457 2 -1% 42% 45% 1% Total DVOA 18.1% 3 4.5% 24
2 at BAL L 72% 35 36 405 481 0 1% 31% 29% -1% Unadjusted VOA 16.6% 4 5.7% 24
3 LAC L 58% 24 30 437 352 -4 18% 22% 9% 6% Weighted Trend 17.4% 3 -2.5% 13
4 at PHI W 96% 42 30 471 461 -1 39% 67% 25% -2% Variance 8.0% 21 9.5% 29
5 BUF L 0% 20 38 392 436 -4 -50% 7% 62% 5% Average Opponent 0.4% 19 2.7% 3
6 at WAS W 99% 31 13 499 276 -1 34% 7% -23% 4%
7 at TEN L 3% 3 27 334 369 -2 -56% -42% 14% -1% Passing 34.7% 3 11.3% 23
8 NYG W 84% 20 17 368 300 -1 -5% -9% 8% 12% Rushing 0.8% 10 -5.6% 20
9 GB W 50% 13 7 237 301 2 1% -32% -21% 13%
First Down 13.0% 6 3.5% 20
10 at LV W 97% 41 14 516 299 1 25% 30% 1% -5%
Second Down 23.4% 4 12.4% 27
11 DAL W 98% 19 9 370 276 1 96% 28% -61% 6%
Third Down 19.8% 6 -5.7% 10
12 BYE
13 DEN W 81% 22 9 267 404 2 25% -4% -16% 13% First Half 21.7% 4 5.7% 25
14 LV W 100% 48 9 372 290 5 84% 35% -35% 14% Second Half 14.3% 6 3.2% 18
15 at LAC W 62% 34 28 496 428 0 14% 21% -3% -10%
16 PIT W 99% 36 10 381 303 3 17% 18% -2% -3% Red Zone -7.4% 22 -1.8% 15
17 at CIN L 78% 31 34 414 475 0 29% 54% 36% 10% Late and Close 21.4% 5 4.9% 21
18 at DEN W 45% 28 24 390 364 1 8% 31% 22% 0%
19 PIT W 99% 42 21 478 257 -1 39% 38% 8% 8%
20 BUF W 90% 42 36 552 422 0 78% 77% 14% 16%
21 CIN L 14% 24 27 375 359 -1 3% 9% 7% 1%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 10-6 10.0 10.0 415 339 +15 10.9% 10 16.4% 4 10.8% 29 5.3% 4 42.1 22 38.7 20 26.3 26 27.1 5 25.9 16
2018 12-4 11.0 13.0 565 421 +11 33.2% 1 35.4% 1 7.7% 27 5.6% 2 35.3 16 24.8 10 26.0 27 26.2 15 25.7 18
2019 12-4 11.6 12.0 451 308 +8 30.1% 4 23.5% 3 -2.6% 14 4.1% 2 32.2 13 43.6 24 27.0 12 25.6 27 26.2 9
2020 14-2 10.7 11.9 473 362 +6 19.6% 6 23.9% 2 4.9% 22 0.5% 17 50.7 24 14.5 1 27.1 11 25.9 26 25.8 20
2021 12-5 11.4 11.4 480 364 +4 17.3% 7 18.1% 3 4.5% 24 3.7% 3 17.7 2 20.9 3 26.0 24 26.3 18 26.0 18

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

KC Offense KC Offense vs. Opponents KC Defense KC Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 67% 6.4 22.7% 22% Base 10% 5.3 8.1% 68% Base 27% 6.2 13.1% 11 62% 6.2 7.1%
12 20% 5.7 18.1% 45% Nickel 69% 6.3 27.5% 35% Nickel 45% 5.9 4.9% 12 17% 5.1 -3.8%
13 6% 5.7 55.3% 55% Dime+ 21% 6.0 8.5% 9% Dime+ 28% 6.3 -5.3% 21 7% 6.7 28.0%
21 4% 5.5 38.4% 77% Goal Line 0% 0.5 -8.3% 50% Goal Line 1% 1.0 -12.9% 13 5% 7.0 12.0%
22 1% 7.2 -0.3% 83% 10 2% 6.0 0.5%
126 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 31% 31 Form: Single Back 86% 8 Rush 3 3.5% 25 4 DB 27% 10 Play Action 28% 12
Runs, first down 42% 30 Form: Empty Back 8% 20 Rush 4 69.5% 19 5 DB 45% 31 Offensive Motion 62% 2
Runs, second-long 21% 27 Form: Multi Back 6% 21 Rush 5 15.5% 28 6+ DB 28% 2 Avg Box (Off) 6.10 32
Runs, power sit. 52% 23 Pers: 3+ WR 67% 10 Rush 6+ 11.5% 1 Man Coverage 33% 8 Avg Box (Def) 6.39 27
Runs, behind 2H 23% 28 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 28% 18 Edge Rusher Sacks 32.3% 30 CB by Sides 77% 15 Offensive Pace 29.20 3
Pass, ahead 2H 56% 2 Pers: 6+ OL 2% 20 Interior DL Sacks 53.2% 1 S/CB Cover Ratio 25% 21 Defensive Pace 30.65 10
Run-Pass Options 22% 2 Shotgun/Pistol 80% 5 Second Level Sacks 14.5% 18 DB Blitz 18% 2 Go for it on 4th 1.04 14

As you probably know, Patrick Mahomes faced fewer blitzes than any other quarterback in the league last season. He was
blitzed 12% of the time. Every other quarterback was at 20% or higher. Mahomes destroyed blitzes with 9.4 yards per play and
53.6% DVOA. 🏈 Kansas City was the worst offense in the league running on second-and-long, with 3.3 yards per carry
and -73.7% DVOA. 🏈 The Chiefs were excellent with an empty backfield, with 7.7 yards per play (second in the NFL) and
56.4% DVOA (third). 🏈 Kansas City was fantastic on screen passes in 2021, with 65.9% DVOA and 7.3 yards per pass on
wide receiver or tight end screens to go with 89.5% DVOA and 8.2 yards per pass on running back screens. 🏈 The Chiefs’
offensive pressure rate increased from seventh on first and second down (20.5%) to 27th on third and fourth down (37.2%).
🏈 Kansas City led the NFL in big blitzes (six or more pass-rushers) for the second straight season. The Chiefs were not very
good on these plays (7.2 yards per play, 35.5% DVOA) even though they were very good when blitzing five pass-rushers (4.5
yards per play, -32.8% DVOA). 🏈 Kansas City’s offense somehow made it through the entire season without giving up a
single sack marked as “rusher untouched.” 🏈 Kansas City ranked third in defensive DVOA against passes in the middle of
the field compared to 14th against passes on the offensive left and 26th against passes on the offensive right. 🏈 The Chiefs
defense had the NFL’s worst DVOA (13.1%) and yards allowed per play (6.2) when in base personnel, except for Dallas which
only used base on 12 plays all year. 🏈 Kansas City ranked in the top 10 for penalties for the fourth straight season.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
P.Mahomes 1368 18.6% 686 4665 6.8 6.2 66.5% 37 13 T.Hill* 313 11.6% 159 111 1239 11.2 4.0 9 70%
C.Henne 33 15.9% 16 82 5.1 2.2 68.8% 0 0 M.Hardman 120 5.2% 83 59 693 11.7 8.5 2 71%
B.Pringle* 202 29.6% 60 42 568 13.5 4.5 5 70%
D.Robinson* 13 -8.5% 41 25 264 10.6 2.5 3 61%
Rushing J.Gordon -41 -49.5% 14 5 32 6.4 1.0 1 36%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc M.Valdes-Scantling -8 -14.6% 55 26 430 16.5 5.6 3 47%
D.Williams* 93 5.1% 144 558 3.9 6 0 58% J.Smith-Schuster -47 -34.7% 28 15 129 8.6 4.5 0 54%
C.Edwards-Helaire 53 2.4% 119 517 4.3 4 2 59% T.Kelce 257 21.2% 134 92 1125 12.2 6.1 9 69%
D.Gore 47 13.0% 51 256 5.0 2 0 61% B.Bell -17 -27.0% 13 9 87 9.7 7.4 0 69%
P.Mahomes 84 21.1% 51 390 7.6 2 3 - N.Gray -18 -33.2% 10 7 36 5.1 2.6 1 70%
J.McKinnon 14 21.5% 12 62 5.2 0 0 67% D.Williams* 179 42.4% 57 47 452 9.6 9.3 2 82%
T.Hill* 47 56.7% 9 96 10.7 0 0 - C.Edwards-Helaire 51 23.7% 23 19 129 6.8 8.9 2 83%
M.Burton 31 41.1% 8 26 3.3 1 0 100% J.McKinnon 35 15.0% 21 13 107 8.2 9.6 1 65%
M.Hardman -1 -41.3% 8 46 5.8 0 1 - D.Gore 43 67.3% 9 8 105 13.1 11.3 0 89%
R.Jones 79 8.7% 101 428 4.2 4 2 62% R.Jones 6 -6.0% 13 10 64 6.4 7.7 0 77%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Trey Smith RG 23 17/17 1195 9 2.5 23 12 Andrew Wylie RT 28 13/7 527 4 4.5 14 3
Creed Humphrey C 23 17/17 1185 5 1.0 5 3 Lucas Niang RT 24 12/9 525 4 2.0 17 4
Joe Thuney LG 30 17/17 1185 8 2.0 11 9 Geron Christian LT 26 14/8 588 5 1.5 13 6
Orlando Brown LT 26 16/16 1128 7 3.0 25 4 Austin Reiter C 31 6/5 422 1 1.0 4 3
 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 127
Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.15 3.88 28 63% 21 19% 18 0.92 29 1.02 7 10.1% 15 25 4.9% 4 32.5% 26 17.1% 31 28
2020 4.22 4.38 14 51% 32 18% 20 1.32 7 0.48 30 11.8% 24 24 4.5% 4 28.4% 23 16.0% 31 22
2021 4.25 4.55 8 76% 5 15% 5 1.22 12 0.37 29 10.5% 12 28 4.8% 4 24.1% 8 13.2% 12 30
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.44 (13) Left Tackle: 5.34 (3) Mid/Guard: 4.70 (5) Right Tackle: 3.94 (23) Right End: 3.98 (20)

The overhaul of the Chiefs offensive line in the wake of the Great Super Bowl LV Collapse worked out better than anyone
could have hoped. Creed Humphrey received two votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the most votes for an offensive line-
man since Quenton Nelson in 2018. His blown block rate of 0.5% was the lowest in the NFL among starting centers. Humphrey
and right guard Trey Smith were each named to the Pro Football Writers Association All-Rookie team. Left tackle Orlando
Brown was named to his third-straight Pro Bowl, his first with the Chiefs. Left guard Joe Thuney’s blown block rate of 1.8%
ranked seventh best among guards and 16th among all offensive linemen with 1,000 or more snaps. 🏈 As of June, Brown
had yet to sign his franchise tender and was a no-show at voluntary OTAs. Brown is still seeking his first non-rookie contract;
the Ravens traded him to the Chiefs in the fifth year of his rookie contract for budgetary reasons. The structure of the current
collective bargaining agreement makes a Brown training camp holdout unlikely. Brown has finally hired an agent for the first
time in his pro career. Controversial take: hiring a professional to help negotiate eight-figure contracts is a good idea. 🏈 Gen-
eral manager Brett Veach said that fifth-round pick Darian Kinnard (Kentucky) was drafted to compete at right tackle. Kinnard
is broadly similar to Trey Smith: an ornery SEC mauler with unrefined technique who slipped through the cracks in the draft,
Smith for health reasons and Kinnard due to sloppy footwork and a huggy blocking style. Kinnard will compete with incum-
bents Lucas Niang, who is recovering from a torn patellar tendon and unlikely to be available at the start of training camp, and
Andrew Wylie, who has been the Chiefs’ fill-in tackle/guard since 2018. 🏈 Humphrey and Smith pardoned a pair of piggies
named Ham Solo and Chewbacon at the Kansas City Barbecue Festival on May the Fourth. The pigs were named after heroes
because pardoning them during a barbecue festival makes you the villain. All other pigs in attendance witnessed the awesome
power of a fully armed and operational slow cooker.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Jarran Reed* 30 DT 17 713 44 5.2% 59 29 8 3 39 64% 72 3.4 89 2.5 10 19 1
Chris Jones 28 DT 14 628 32 4.6% 68 24 14 4 16 56% 88 2.6 50 9.0 10 39 4
Tershawn Wharton 24 DT 17 502 30 3.5% 88 21 7 4 22 73% 36 3.1 78 2.0 0 16 0
Derrick Nnadi 26 DT 17 450 38 4.5% 73 21 3 2 35 51% 96 3.4 87 3.0 2 4 0
Taylor Stallworth 27 DT 16 332 17 2.1% -- 15 7 0 11 82% -- 2.3 -- 3.0 9 11 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Frank Clark 29 DE 14 659 22 3.1% 91 17 8 6 16 75% 33 2.9 68 4.5 13 28 0
Melvin Ingram* 33 OLB 15 592 26 3.5% 82 24 12 3 19 95% 3 0.7 3 2.0 9 30 1
Michael Danna 25 DE 17 534 27 3.2% 89 20 6 1 18 78% 24 3.2 74 3.0 7 14 1
Alex Okafor* 31 DE 17 463 25 2.9% 94 16 3 1 21 57% 85 3.7 83 1.5 6 18 2

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Nick Bolton 22 OLB 16 624 115 14.3% 29 56 19 10 72 60% 33 3.3 18 0.0 3 8 22 55% 26 6.9 44 3 0
Anthony Hitchens* 30 MLB 15 598 82 10.9% 53 36 9 4 60 47% 72 4.4 65 0.0 2 3 15 60% 14 5.9 29 2 1
Ben Niemann* 27 MLB 17 557 53 6.2% 80 18 7 7 28 39% 82 4.9 80 1.0 0 5 19 37% 67 8.5 65 1 0
Willie Gay 24 OLB 12 437 52 8.6% 71 30 7 7 35 57% 45 3.2 16 0.5 0 6 15 40% 61 7.5 54 4 2
Jermaine Carter 27 MLB 17 853 85 10.3% 58 51 11 16 60 65% 16 3.5 22 0.0 3 8 16 38% 66 8.6 66 1 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.89 4.81 28 71% 26 14% 30 1.45 31 0.89 25 12.0% 20 45 7.7% 10 30.0% 19 17.3% 5
2020 4.47 4.66 25 78% 32 11% 30 1.13 11 0.72 20 7.4% 32 32 6.2% 18 29.8% 4 16.7% 4
2021 4.64 4.66 27 70% 22 14% 26 1.38 29 0.65 16 10.2% 28 31 5.5% 26 28.4% 6 15.2% 16
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.24 (17) Left Tackle: 3.69 (7) Mid/Guard: 4.76 (30) Right Tackle: 4.21 (16) Right End: 5.44 (25)
128 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chris Jones lined up primarily as an edge rusher from Week 1 through Week 8 of the 2021 season, missing Weeks 5 and 6.
Jones recorded just three sacks, 11 hurries, and 18 pressures in that span, and the Chiefs defense was the worst in the league and
flirted with the all-time worst-DVOA record. Jones returned to his natural interior position in Week 9 and recorded six sacks,
28 hurries, and 39 pressures for the remainder of the season, adding eight hurries and nine pressures in three playoff games.
🏈 Frank Clark looked washed up in the first half of the season and may have earned his surprising two-year contract exten-
sion with five hurries against the Bills in the playoffs. Clark may also have benefitted from Jones’ move inside. 🏈 Rookie
edge rusher George Karlaftis (Purdue) was born in Athens and played goalie for the Greek national under-16 water polo team.
Karlaftis described his preadolescent training regimen during his combine interview. “I was 10, 11, 12 years old, I had to hold
a chair with my shoulders out of the water, my chest out of the water for 10 minutes in a row. That’s what I attribute my strong
legs, too.” Karlaftis is raw but has as much upside as second overall pick Aidan Hutchinson. He’s expected to step into the role
vacated by Melvin Ingram. 🏈 Derrick Nnadi enters his fifth season as a stopgap space-eater next to Jones, and the Chiefs
defensive line depth is not worth mentioning. 🏈 Linebacker Nick Bolton might have earned some Defensive Rookie of the
Year notice if anything else was going right for the Chiefs defense early in the season. Bolton led all qualifying off-ball line-
backers in run tackles per snap and led the entire NFL with 13 tackles for a loss on running plays. His 15% broken tackle rate
was also a good result for a rookie defender. 🏈 William Gay and newcomer Jermaine Carter round out the linebacker corps.
Both are ostensibly coverage defenders, though Gay gives up too much over the short middle of the field and Carter flunked an
extensive audition as a Panthers starter last season. 🏈 Third-round pick Leo Chenal was a conventional Sam linebacker at
Wisconsin but may start his Chiefs career as a situational edge rusher. Chenal weighs 261 pounds, tested exceptionally well at
the combine, and has an old-school mentality. “I’m addicted to hitting people,” he said at his introductory press conference. “I
love it. I can’t get enough.”

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Tyrann Mathieu* 30 SS 16 998 82 10.2% 42 27 9 11 27 22% 67 8.6 57 33 9.0% 29 7.9 70% 3 3.9 3 6 3
L'Jarius Sneed 25 CB 15 918 84 11.2% 7 50 30 11 28 64% 4 4.2 12 58 17.2% 67 10.1 64% 8 7.1 37 8 2
Juan Thornhill 27 FS 17 852 67 7.9% 64 15 6 9 35 23% 66 9.4 64 13 4.2% 72 10.8 38% 67 9.5 63 3 1
Charvarius Ward* 26 CB 13 753 77 11.8% 4 20 8 4 26 19% 77 8.2 67 67 24.2% 11 14.7 63% 10 6.0 19 10 2
Daniel Sorensen* 32 FS 17 698 59 6.9% 69 19 13 16 22 27% 53 5.9 18 30 11.7% 12 13.3 40% 66 11.4 72 8 2
Rashad Fenton 25 CB 14 533 54 7.7% 56 25 10 1 9 44% 42 6.8 51 36 18.4% 55 10.9 47% 67 7.3 43 7 0
Mike Hughes* 25 CB 17 508 51 6.0% 76 18 10 2 6 17% 79 7.0 55 58 31.1% 1 11.7 53% 43 6.8 31 6 1
Deandre Baker 25 CB 8 211 17 4.2% -- 7 4 4 3 67% -- 2.0 -- 18 23.2% -- 8.2 50% -- 7.5 -- 1 0
Justin Reid 25 SS 13 780 68 9.9% 48 19 9 14 42 26% 57 7.6 44 12 4.4% 69 14.4 58% 30 8.3 51 4 2
Lonnie Johnson 27 CB 14 541 56 7.6% -- 15 4 13 23 26% -- 8.3 -- 24 12.8% -- 13.4 54% -- 9.8 -- 6 3
Deon Bush 29 FS 14 377 36 5.3% -- 15 5 5 21 29% -- 9.2 -- 17 13.7% -- 12.6 65% -- 6.1 -- 5 2

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 6 -32.3% 3 -10.4% 7 5.1% 20 -48.4% 1 4.3% 12 -19.5% 4 -2.0% 18
2020 16 -11.2% 9 -2.8% 13 -18.1% 7 -15.6% 6 -12.7% 2 -2.1% 14 33.3% 31
2021 23 2.9% 17 1.2% 21 -33.7% 2 -14.6% 8 -3.0% 8 -1.1% 17 16.9% 26

Tyrann Matthieu is the Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs defense. His impact as a tone-setter and a defender the opponent must ac-
count for on every snap goes beyond what can be measured with pressure rates and coverage stats. The difference, of course,
is that Hill’s departure should drop the Chiefs offense from “historic” to “really good,” while Mathieu’s departure threatens to
drop the Chiefs defense from “bad” to “in danger of getting run over by tailgaters in the stadium parking lot” if rookies and
newcomers cannot step up right away. 🏈 Justin Reid, Mathieu’s nominal replacement, played a ton of Cover-2 in Lovie
Smith’s Texans defense, so naturally he’s excited about Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-happy scheme. “It’s electric, his defense,” Reid
said during OTAs. “We’ve got guys coming from all over the place. Coverage spinning in different directions. This is undoubt-
edly going to be the most fun defense that I’ve played in so far.” Reid will almost certainly blitz more than he did in Houston,
where he recorded just nine pass pressures in four seasons as a starter. 🏈 Free safety Juan Thornhill was mysteriously
benched at the start of the 2021 season in favor of (ugh) Daniel Sorensen. Spagnuolo told a mystified press pool at the time that
Thornhill played “spurts of good football,” which sounds like he may have been missing assignments or dogging it in practice.
Thornhill returned to the lineup during one of Sorensen’s extended spurts of horrendous football and looked like the ballhawk-
ing rising star we saw in 2019 and 2020. 🏈 L’Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, and rookie Trent McDuffie are the expected
starters for a cornerback unit projected to be adequate at best. Sneed was picked upon badly when forced to play outside early
 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 129

in the season—Emmanuel Sanders set him on fire in the Week 5 loss to the Bills—but improved when he slid back to the slot
upon Charvarius Ward’s return. McDuffie, a 5-foot-10 tough guy and speedster with short arms, also projects as the slot corner,
which could force Sneed back to the outside. Fenton was unavailable for OTAs with a shoulder injury, prompting the Chiefs to
trade for Lonnie Johnson, a lanky former second-round pick the Texans kept shifting back and forth from cornerback to safety.
🏈 Second-round pick Bryan Cook (Cincinnati) is a hard-nosed striker who should replace Sorensen as the “heavy nickel”
safety. Fourth-round pick Joshua Williams (Fayetteville State) is a 6-foot-3 raw bundle of delicious traits.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 4.1% 2 8.1 5 6.1 3 4.2 5 -0.6 19 2.6 7 5.5 9
2020 0.5% 17 3.9 12 -4.4 24 7.6 4 0.8 17 -5.2 29 0.1 15
2021 3.7% 3 7.2 6 7.7 1 -2.6 21 5.8 4 1.5 10 1.0 16

Harrison Butker is 32-of-32 on field goals inside 40 yards over the last two seasons. He’s also 20-of-28 on field goals beyond
50 yards for his career. Butker missed six extra points in 2020 but just two in 2021. Field goal statistics fluctuate wildly of
course, but Butker has established some solid benchmarks for reliability. And if the Chiefs offense becomes a little less capable
of scoring 50-yard touchdowns with Tyreek Hill gone, Butker could get even more field goal opportunities as a result. 🏈
Mecole Hardman returns as the Chiefs punt returner and will take back over for Byron Pringle on kickoffs. Hardman returned a
punt for a touchdown in 2020 and a kickoff in 2019. He returned punts for 48 and 21 yards against the Steelers in the playoffs.
🏈 Punter Tommy Townsend earned Special Teams Player of the Month honors in November, when his punting (and one
fake-punt pass) helped the Chiefs win several close games. Townsend pinned the Jordan Love-led Packers inside their own 20-
yard line four times in the Chiefs 13-7 win, for example. Townsend then went on the COVID list for two games and his brother
Johnny Townsend took his place. You cannot make this stuff up.
 Las Vegas Raiders
2021 record: 10-7 Total DVOA: -5.0% (21) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.5 wins On the Clock (0-5): 13%
Pythagorean Wins: 6.8 (23) Offense: -3.4% (19) Postseason Odds: 42.2% Mediocrity (6-8): 37%
Snap-Weighted Age: 25.9 (28) Defense: 0.6% (17) Super Bowl Odds: 5.1% Playoff Contender (9-11): 37%
Average Opponent: 1.4% (8) Special Teams: -0.9% (21) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 1.4% (8) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 13%

2021: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

2022: Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational Derek Carr.

J osh McDaniels has always been the Boba Fett of the Bill
Belichick clones.
For those of you who aren’t versed in Star Wars lore: all of
chise in 2009, and he immediately set fire to everything flam-
mable. Broncos beat writers of that era later recalled in a
Stampede Blue retrospective that McDaniels “tried to com-
the “stormtroopers,” the cinematic cannon fodder in ineffec- mand respect like a dog marking its territory all over the orga-
tual white armor with the aim of a blindfolded Tim Tebow and nization” and “alienated every player in the locker room and
strategic prowess of Adam Gase on peyote, were clones of a most of his coaching staff.” As the de-facto general manager,
cunning bounty hunter named Jango Fett, though with some he also wasted first-round picks on running back Knowshon
of his elite capabilities suppressed to make the grunts more Moreno and (after trading up) Tebow.
compliant. Jango commissioned one special fully optimized McDaniels was fired before the end of his second season
clone to raise as his son Boba Fett. Boba Fett enjoyed a few in Denver. He joined Steve Spagnuolo’s doomed rebuild-
cool on-screen moments in The Empire Strikes Back and, like ing effort with the St. Louis Rams for one year, getting fired
an undrafted rookie quarterback mopping up the Hall of Fame along with Spags when the Rams finished 2-14. Fortunately,
game, became one of the most beloved characters in the Star Bill O’Brien left the Patriots on his own odyssey during that
Wars rogues’ gallery. offseason, allowing McDaniels to climb back into the auto-
That’s McDaniels in a nutshell. Matt Patricia or Joe Judge pilot chair between Brady and Belichick. Patriots awesome-
might blunder off to make fools of themselves before crawl- ness predictably ensued. Most recently, McDaniels left the
ing back to Darth Hoodie covered in lightsaber scars, but Mc- Colts at the altar after almost becoming their head coach in
Daniels remained the heir apparent to the Belichick throne. 2018, grunted through the Cam Newton/COVID opt-out year
Sure, he had some solo misadventures long, long ago, but they in 2020, and used Mac Jones’ success to springboard back to
can be brushed off as no longer part of the canon. McDaniels the top of the list of overqualified head coaching candidates
is now more steeped in the dark arts of the Patriots Way than in 2021.
anyone but the Sith Lord himself, surely making him the per- Let’s assume that McDaniels has matured beyond his Bron-
fect choice to rebuild the NFL’s original evil empire. cos-era Angry Princeling stage, because nothing else matters
If you watched Disney’s The Book of Boba Fett television if he has not. Let’s also push pause on questions about his
series, you know all of this Star Wars nerdery is relevant be- roster-building acumen for a moment. Just how great an of-
cause ol’ Boba turns out to be a bumbler in his first real solo fensive mastermind is McDaniels?
adventure. In Book of Boba Fett, the titular character osten- The record cited in Table 1 is tricky to parse. Your mileage
sibly embarks on a Michael Corleone-esque quest to make is likely to vary on Jones’ magical rookie season. It’s tempt-
a crime syndicate go legit, but he spends most of the series ing—but not necessarily appropriate—to give McDaniels and
getting allies killed, cutting off his own revenue streams, and the whole Patriots franchise a mulligan for creaky Cam and
setting himself up to be backstabbed.
It turns out that Boba Fett makes a better henchman, visual Table 1. Josh McDaniels
effect, and fanfic concept than protagonist. The Raiders hope
McDaniels doesn’t turn out the same way. Offenses Without Tom Brady
McDaniels has been a head coach or offensive coordinator
for 16 seasons, but only six of them have been non-Tom Brady Year Team
DVOA Yds Pts
Quarterbacks
Rk Rk Rk
seasons. In four of those seasons, his offense was below aver-
age in both DVOA and points scored (Table 1). 2008 NE 7 5 8 M.Cassel
McDaniels did a fine job coordinating a 2008 Patriots of- 2009 DEN 18 15 20 K.Orton
fense which lost Brady to a Week 1 ACL tear (but still pos- 2010 DEN 17 13 19 K.Orton/T.Tebow
sessed Randy Moss, Wes Welker, etc.) to a top-10 finish in 2011 STL 32 31 32 S.Bradford/A.Feeley/K.Clemens
major offensive categories with Matt Cassel at quarterback. 2020 NE 23 27 27 C.Newton
The Broncos then gave McDaniels full control of their fran- 2021 NE 9 15 6 M.Jones

130
 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 131

2021 LV DVOA by Week

2022 Raiders Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at LAC 7 HOU 13 LAC
2 ARI 8 at NO 14 at LAR (Thu.) 40%
3 at TEN 9 at JAX 15 NE 20%
4 DEN 10 IND 16 at PIT (Sat.)
0%
5 at KC (Mon.) 11 at DEN 17 SF
6 BYE 12 at SEA 18 KC -20%

-40%

-60%

the COVID-crippled 2020 season. The 2011 Rams were a -80%

lost cause, but a true offensive guru should be able to avoid a -100%

last-place DVOA finish under even the direst circumstances.

And the middling Broncos results are tied to McDaniels’ ros-
ter machinations: alienating and trading Jay Cutler before he
played a snap, drafting Tebow and Moreno, and so on. the Raiders became wild-card playoff fodder, in large part by
McDaniels is probably best thought of not as a Belichickian tiptoeing through the COVID surge relatively unscathed.
genius but as a flexible offensive architect and playcaller who So McDaniels is not taking over a terrible team, just a team
creates game plans appropriate to the circumstances: let-’er- that spent four years climbing to the bottom rung of the play-
rip stuff for Early Brady, surgical short passes for Late Brady, offs led by Derek Carr, a quarterback whose floor and ceiling
keepers for Cam and Tebow, subtle student-driver tactics for are as far apart as one of the cubbyholes in a DVD rack. The
Mac. McDaniels is a lot like Jon Gruden in that sense. 2021 roster was also strewn with veterans such as K.J. Wright,
The question/concern for the Raiders now becomes how DeSean Jackson, Desmond Trufant, and Casey Hayward (plus
much like Gruden McDaniels turns out to be in other (foot- short-timers such as Willie Snead and HaHa Clinton-Dix)
ball-related) senses. who were assembled more or less randomly over the Gruden
To return to the Star Wars metaphor, Gruden is Jabba the era, as well as failed or failing prospects such as Clelin Ferrell
Hut, an individual of bloated wealth and status who got yeeted from Mike Mayock’s mostly disastrous drafts.
early in 2021 for being too toxic for even the NFL. Just days A deep housecleaning was in order, and impetuous territo-
after Gruden was fired for his misogynistic and homophobic rial young Josh McDaniels would likely have kicked one off
emails, wide receiver Henry Ruggs was charged with DUI re- by shipping Carr off to Indianapolis for some draft picks and
sulting in death in a highway crash and cornerback Damon cutting everyone over age 26.
Arnette was released by the team in the wake of online death Older and wiser McDaniels, however, may have surmised
threats and other allegations. The Raiders started the 2021 that Mark Davis thinks he owns a true playoff team and that
season 3-0, but by November they were without their head his own reputation is unlikely to survive another painful, dra-
coach and both of their 2020 first-round picks. It’s inappropri- matic rebuilding phase. So the Raiders shockingly shifted into
ate to tie Ruggs and Arnette’s misbehavior to Gruden’s out- win-now mode in the offseason by signing Chandler Jones,
moded values, but it’s safe to say that Gruden wasn’t keeping then trading multiple high draft picks for Davante Adams.
a firm or proactive grip on the Raiders’ culture, either. The Adams trade, despite its tremendous costs (first- and
Special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia took over for second-round picks in 2022, a new contract that only eats up
Gruden, scored a pair of “new boss bounce” wins before the around $8 million in 2022 cap space but balloons to $30 mil-
Ruggs/Arnette issues surfaced, then led the Raiders through a lion next year), is certainly defensible. Adams immediately
1-5 slump, with their only victory coming over the Cowboys upgrades the Raiders offense and more than offsets the loss
in a penalty-marred Thanksgiving fiasco. In fairness to Bisac- of Ruggs as a deep threat. McDaniels coached Moss, Welker,
cia, Gruden’s Raiders slumped every autumn too. Already in and Rob Gronkowski at various points in his career and can
mid-regime change, the Raiders appeared to be on their way dream up all sorts of fun things for Adams, Hunter Renfrow,
to an everything-must-go clearance sale as well. and Darren Waller to do. The Raiders would have been forced
Then came the Omicron variant of COVID. The Raiders to spend one of those draft picks on a wide receiver anyway,
beat the Browns with Nick Mullens at quarterback in a Mon- and McDaniels is well aware of the fact that even the best or-
day afternoon game after a postponement. They beat the Colts ganization in the NFL can whiff regularly on rookie wideouts.
when Carson Wentz was cleared to play hours before kickoff The Jones signing also makes a lot of sense in isolation.
after missing that week’s practice. In between, the Raiders Jones’ arrival allowed the Raiders to flip Yannick Ngakoue
defeated the Broncos with Drew Lock at quarterback due to to the Colts for defensive back Rock Ya-Sin without leaving
Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion. Finally, the Raiders lulled Maxx Crosby to get triple-teamed every time the opponent
the Chargers into a game that would be determined by run drops back to pass. But Jones is 32 years old and coming off
defense and fourth-down conversion narratives. The poor a 2021 season where he recorded five sacks in the opener
Chargers didn’t stand a chance under those circumstances and (against gimpy Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan and his help-
132 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

less backup) and 5.5 more for the rest of the year. Jones looks pandemic which sharply curtailed travel. He then watched his
more like the type of situational pass-rusher a contender signs $100-million CEO sabotage the team’s brand just as gate re-
to a short, incentive-laden contract than someone ready to ceipts began to return to normal. Davis can’t afford to let the
make good on a deal that will extend out until 2026 thanks Raiders turn into a Vegas retro novelty act for visiting fans en-
to a pair of voidable years. Still, Jones played for defensive joying a weekend getaway. He has luxury boxes to fill, jerseys
coordinator Patrick Graham in New England and, like Adams, and regional radio advertising to sell, local fans to attract. An
will make a positive short-term impact. Allegiant Stadium half-full of Broncos fans watching Brian
The problem with the Adams and Jones deals is that they Hoyer dump off to Renfrow while McDaniels scouts quarter-
swept the Raiders into a divisional and conference arms race backs for the 2023 draft was never really an option for Davis.
that they have almost no hope of winning. We don’t want to Therefore, it wasn’t an option for McDaniels either. Hence,
traffic in “the AFC West is too hard, so give up until 2025” we’re getting a competitive, marketable version of the Raiders
keyboard-jockey wisdom. A little urgency is a good thing. with little chance at true greatness in the short or long term.
The Raiders offseason might look very different for a team in, The Book of Boba Fett television series grows strangely
say, the NFC South. But the Raiders burnt a forest’s worth of bored of its titular character after a few episodes. Boba dis-
future resources to climb from barely deserving a wild-card appears for whole hours at a time as the show follows other
berth to emphatically deserving a wild-card berth. heroes and villains of the Star Wars universe on their adven-
The Raiders’ eagerness to embrace the status quo is puz- tures. Then everyone comes together for a final Magnificent
zling because McDaniels was the O.G. dictatorial Belichick Seven-inspired showdown. On screen, a town is reduced to
disciple, the innovator of the accelerant-and-rags approach to rubble and several heroes die or nearly die, but some bad guys
franchise reconstruction that burned Patricia, Judge, O’Brien are defeated, allowing our nearly irrelevant titular character
(eventually) and so many others. McDaniels finally landed and his ragtag band of allies to claim a small victory at what
with a team which needed a full-scale cultural upheaval the appeared to be an exorbitant cost. Off-screen, in the halls of
way few teams ever have. Yet McDaniels essentially chose an Disney Lucasfilm power, top-level decision-makers more
extension of the Gruden era: more Carr, more veteran acqui- interested in getting attention and selling subscriptions than
sitions, more barren drafts (by design this time), more quick creating something sensible and satisfying consigned a com-
fixes. Welcome to the Age of Irony in Las Vegas. pelling character to a big-budget flop.
McDaniels must realize that a true rebuild would have Boba Fett’s on- and off-screen fates are a pair of neat meta-
made more sense than an attempt to build upon the thin sand phors for what might happen to McDaniels in Las Vegas if
of 2021; there’s no way he looks around the Raiders roster, he’s not careful. McDaniels can still pull off the heel-turned-
even with Adams and Jones attached, and sees anything that hero character arc, but he needs to go back to being a ruthless,
resembles the 2010s Patriots. Davis, on the other hand, has cunning, and semi-mysterious scoundrel. Until he does, the
real financial reasons for over-optimism. Raiders are just another menacing-but-unfinished Death Star
Davis is one of the NFL’s most cash-strapped owners. He full of easy-to-exploit weaknesses. We all know what happens
moved the family franchise to a resort city at the start of a to those things in the final act.

2021 Raiders by Week Mike Tanier

1
Wk
BAL
vs. W-L PGWE PF PA
W 61% 33 27
YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST
491 406 1 -11% -12% -5% -3%
Trends and Splits
2 at PIT W 78% 26 17 425 331 1 -13% 10% 24% 2% Offense Rank Defense Rank
3 MIA W 84% 31 28 497 330 -1 12% 0% -14% -2% Total DVOA -3.4% 19 0.6% 17
4 at LAC L 0% 14 28 213 380 -1 -60% -38% 18% -4% Unadjusted VOA -1.3% 19 2.4% 18
5 CHI L 4% 9 20 259 252 -1 -30% -22% 3% -5% Weighted Trend -4.3% 20 -1.9% 15
6 at DEN W 100% 34 24 426 421 4 37% 53% 10% -6% Variance 6.8% 12 3.1% 5
7 PHI W 91% 33 22 442 358 1 38% 33% -2% 4% Average Opponent 1.4% 28 2.6% 4
8 BYE
9 at NYG L 22% 16 23 403 247 -2 -39% -10% 17% -12% Passing 12.2% 17 10.3% 21
10 KC L 3% 14 41 299 516 -1 -38% -22% 12% -3% Rushing -15.8% 25 -13.4% 9
11 CIN L 19% 13 32 278 288 -1 -6% -11% -7% -1%
First Down 1.3% 15 -7.0% 9
12 at DAL W 33% 36 33 509 437 0 25% 37% 0% -12%
Second Down -2.3% 20 4.7% 21
13 WAS L 50% 15 17 310 298 1 10% 1% -5% 4%
Third Down -14.0% 25 7.1% 24
14 at KC L 0% 9 48 290 372 -5 -87% -47% 35% -6%
15 at CLE W 52% 16 14 328 236 -2 12% 9% -1% 2% First Half -13.5% 27 3.4% 23
16 DEN W 81% 17 13 342 158 -3 34% -8% -38% 4% Second Half 5.8% 16 -2.2% 8
17 at IND W 79% 23 20 326 262 -2 7% -16% -15% 8%
18 LAC W 51% 35 32 346 440 2 16% -17% -18% 14% Red Zone -17.4% 27 28.9% 30
19 at CIN L 8% 19 26 385 308 -2 -22% 1% 23% 0% Late and Close 10.7% 9 -13.3% 6
 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 133

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 6-10 6.0 7.4 301 373 -14 -8.6% 20 3.6% 13 12.0% 30 -0.2% 17 10.1 3 33.4 14 27.6 4 26.6 13 25.8 17
2018 4-12 3.7 4.3 290 467 -7 -23.4% 31 -7.7% 25 14.2% 31 -1.6% 22 39.3 17 38.0 21 27.6 9 27.1 6 26.7 4
2019 7-9 5.2 7.2 313 419 -2 -12.7% 25 5.4% 9 15.8% 31 -2.3% 25 52.4 26 41.1 22 26.8 15 25.8 22 25.8 18
2020 8-8 7.0 6.9 434 478 -11 -6.2% 19 1.8% 14 9.6% 28 1.5% 13 54.3 27 32.6 11 27.4 9 26.0 24 26.5 8
2021 10-7 6.8 8.4 374 439 -9 -5.0% 21 -3.4% 19 0.6% 17 -0.9% 21 42.7 17 58.9 27 25.5 30 26.5 13 25.7 22

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

LV Offense LV Offense vs. Opponents LV Defense LV Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 62% 6.3 4.2% 27% Base 19% 4.8 -19.4% 59% Base 21% 5.6 2.4% 11 60% 5.3 -3.5%
12 18% 6.2 10.2% 39% Nickel 56% 6.0 8.6% 39% Nickel 58% 5.2 0.1% 12 20% 5.4 9.2%
21 8% 5.8 5.5% 46% Dime+ 24% 7.1 -2.2% 8% Dime+ 21% 5.7 -0.2% 21 7% 6.7 12.8%
22 5% 3.8 -29.7% 81% Goal Line 1% 1.1 24.9% 89% Goal Line 0% 0.5 -14.2% 13 3% 6.1 16.8%
13 4% 4.4 -43.1% 53% 22 2% 6.1 7.5%
612 2% 3.5 -8.3%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 35% 24 Form: Single Back 79% 25 Rush 3 3.1% 27 4 DB 21% 21 Play Action 20% 31
Runs, first down 43% 29 Form: Empty Back 7% 25 Rush 4 86.8% 1 5 DB 58% 21 Offensive Motion 35% 27
Runs, second-long 25% 23 Form: Multi Back 14% 6 Rush 5 8.8% 32 6+ DB 21% 9 Avg Box (Off) 6.44 19
Runs, power sit. 59% 13 Pers: 3+ WR 63% 20 Rush 6+ 1.3% 31 Man Coverage 21% 30 Avg Box (Def) 6.40 26
Runs, behind 2H 25% 23 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 29% 16 Edge Rusher Sacks 65.7% 9 CB by Sides 58% 28 Offensive Pace 31.06 16
Pass, ahead 2H 52% 9 Pers: 6+ OL 1% 23 Interior DL Sacks 30.0% 15 S/CB Cover Ratio 28% 16 Defensive Pace 31.93 26
Run-Pass Options 6% 21 Shotgun/Pistol 65% 15 Second Level Sacks 4.3% 31 DB Blitz 8% 22 Go for it on 4th 0.84 26

The Raiders were third last year with 142 penalties. It was the third straight year they have ranked among the 10 most penal-
ized teams. The Raiders were first in penalty yardage, with 1 more yard than the Dallas Cowboys. 🏈 Most teams are more
efficient when running against lighter boxes but the Raiders were a bit extreme last season. They gained 5.3 yards per carry
against light boxes (up to six) with 7.6% DVOA compared to 3.3 yards per carry with -22.7% DVOA against boxes of seven or
more. 🏈 In an associated split, Las Vegas had a huge gap in performance between single-back runs (4.5 yards, 0.1% DVOA)
and runs from multi-back formations (2.9 yards, -42.0% DVOA). 🏈 As discussed earlier in the chapter, Josh McDaniels has
a history of adapting his offense to his personnel. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that recent New England offenses were much
heavier than last year’s Raiders, running more often, lining up in shotgun less often, and using more multi-back formations as
well as more six-lineman formations. The Patriots also used motion much more often than the Raiders, ranking fourth in the
league. 🏈 Las Vegas was near the bottom of the league with just 3.6 average yards on RPOs. McDaniels’ Patriots offense
barely used RPOs at all. 🏈 The Raiders allowed a league-low 4.4 average yards after the catch, or -0.7 YAC vs. expecta-
tion. 🏈 Las Vegas had the league’s second-largest gap between the average yardage on plays by the two starting safeties
(6.9 yards). New coordinator Patrick Graham’s Giants defense, by comparison, had a much smaller gap (1.1 yards). 🏈 What
other changes are coming for the Raiders defense? In New York, Graham blitzed at around a league-average rate, while the
Raiders blitzed less than any other defense last season. Personnel groups were similar and the rate of man coverage was only
slightly higher. 🏈 The listed Aggressiveness Index is for Rich Bisaccia. Jon Gruden had an AI of 1.24 in the early part of
the season before leaving the Raiders.
134 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
D.Carr 915 9.5% 663 4545 6.9 5.3 68.9% 23 14 H.Renfrow 269 14.1% 128 103 1038 10.1 4.4 9 80%
N.Mullens 29 3.9% 29 147 5.1 3.6 69.0% 1 0 Z.Jones* 102 5.8% 70 47 546 11.6 3.6 1 67%
B.Edwards* 112 10.4% 59 34 571 16.8 5.6 3 58%
H.Ruggs* 142 34.9% 36 24 469 19.5 4.5 2 67%
D.Jackson* 58 21.0% 19 12 233 19.4 5.9 1 63%
D.Adams 423 17.6% 169 123 1553 12.6 4.9 11 73%
K.Cole 102 12.3% 51 28 449 16.0 3.0 1 55%
D.Robinson 13 -8.5% 41 25 264 10.6 2.5 3 61%
M.Hollins 50 9.2% 28 14 223 15.9 2.9 4 50%
Rushing D.Waller -12 -9.1% 93 55 665 12.1 4.4 2 59%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc F.Moreau 26 1.6% 44 30 373 12.4 6.3 3 68%
J.Jacobs 28 -5.7% 217 877 4.0 9 2 54% J.Hollister -14 -21.1% 14 9 55 6.1 3.4 1 64%
K.Drake 23 -0.1% 63 254 4.0 2 0 46% J.Jacobs 16 -9.5% 64 54 348 6.4 7.3 0 84%
P.Barber* -42 -26.7% 55 212 3.9 2 2 49% K.Drake 86 25.3% 40 30 291 9.7 8.6 1 75%
D.Carr -54 -45.6% 30 108 3.6 0 4 - J.Richard* 17 3.1% 14 12 72 6.0 5.6 0 86%
M.Mariota* 8 -3.3% 13 87 6.7 1 1 - P.Barber* -3 -18.3% 13 10 67 6.7 7.3 0 77%
J.Richard* -9 -32.7% 9 40 4.4 0 0 44% A.Ingold* 33 26.8% 12 10 85 8.5 4.6 1 83%
A.Abdullah -20 -17.7% 51 166 3.3 0 0 43% A.Abdullah 43 1.8% 53 38 289 7.6 7.7 1 71%
B.Bolden 8 -4.1% 44 226 5.1 1 1 41% B.Bolden 156 46.4% 49 41 405 9.9 10.1 2 84%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Kolton Miller LT 27 17/17 1140 6 3.5 21 9 Alex Leatherwood RG 23 17/17 1105 14 3.5 26 12
Andre James C 25 17/17 1140 5 0.0 7 13 Brandon Parker RT 27 17/13 882 9 4.5 22 1
John Simpson LG 25 17/17 1113 11 1.5 16 11 Jermaine Eluemunor RT 28 14/3 266 0 0.0 2 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.26 4.63 6 58% 24 17% 7 1.14 21 0.67 22 10.4% 17 29 5.9% 6 25.7% 4 13.2% 16 22
2020 4.10 4.32 18 63% 21 17% 19 1.18 18 0.61 21 7.6% 5 28 5.5% 10 21.4% 6 12.6% 17 21
2021 4.01 4.29 17 63% 22 16% 11 1.13 25 0.48 23 12.2% 18 40 6.7% 18 27.2% 20 13.9% 17 43
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 2.74 (31) Left Tackle: 4.14 (22) Mid/Guard: 4.32 (13) Right Tackle: 5.07 (2) Right End: 5.72 (6)

This is a very shaky unit for a team that just traded for a veteran All-Pro wide receiver and appears to have short-window
Super Bowl expectations. 🏈 Alex Leatherwood is trying not to become the final epic draft bust of the Jon Gruden/Mike
Mayock era. Leatherwood tied Eric Fisher for the fourth-most blown blocks in the NFL last season with 38. He led all line-
men with seven false starts to go along with five holding penalties. Leatherwood flunked his audition at right tackle early in
2021 and slid to right guard for Derek Carr’s health and safety. That makes his blown block and false start figures even more
discouraging; guards generally blow fewer blocks and commit fewer penalties than tackles. Leatherwood was back at right
tackle during OTAs, sharing starter’s reps with Brandon Parker, the lineman the Raiders keep trying and failing to replace. It’s
too early to write Leatherwood off completely just yet, but he needs to improve significantly at either tackle or guard to crack
“replacement level.” 🏈 Kolton Miller suffered through a brutal rookie season in 2018 but has grown into one of the best
tackles in the NFL, making him an aspirational figure for Leatherwood and a reminder to the new Raiders regime that patience
sometimes pays off. The 26-year-old Miller joked during OTAs that he is now the “old guy” on the Raiders offensive line and
has assumed a leadership role. “Man, four years has gone by like that,” he said. For some of us, the Gruden-Mayock era felt
more like an eternity. 🏈 Andre James took over for injured center Rodney Hudson (now in Arizona) early last season and
suffered eight blown blocks in his first five games but settled down a bit as the rest of the Raiders line stabilized. James earned
a modest contract extension in the offseason, but the Raiders have other options at center. Third-round pick Dylan Parham was
recruited by Memphis as a tight end but ended up starting at right tackle and both guard positions. The Raiders will be giving
Parham some work at center. Hroniss Grasu, a 31-year-old failed Bears center prospect, is also on the roster. 🏈 Denzelle
Good suffered an ACL tear 18 snaps into the 2021 season opener. Jermaine Eluemunor took over for three starts before giving
way to Leatherwood. Good and Eluemunor are listed as the Raiders starters at guard, and Eluemunor’s experience with Josh
McDaniels’ Patriots is worth mentioning, but Leatherwood and Parham could easily end up replacing them.
 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 135

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Quinton Jefferson* 29 DT 17 686 48 5.4% 55 33 14 4 39 64% 72 3.3 84 4.5 11 25 0
Johnathan Hankins 30 DT 14 567 39 5.3% 57 29 7 1 35 77% 18 2.0 25 0.0 2 5 1
Solomon Thomas* 27 DT 17 554 36 4.0% 79 26 11 3 23 65% 68 3.3 85 3.5 8 16 3
Darius Philon* 28 DT 11 278 29 5.0% -- 23 8 1 25 76% -- 2.2 -- 2.0 0 9 1
Damion Square* 33 DT 9 190 9 1.9% -- 7 2 0 8 75% -- 1.4 -- 0.5 2 4 0
Bilal Nichols 26 DE 17 678 52 6.3% 29 38 10 1 43 70% 53 2.8 62 3.0 5 16 0
Tyler Lancaster 28 DE 16 319 31 4.0% -- 22 3 1 31 71% -- 2.6 -- 0.0 0 3 0
Vernon Butler 28 DT 10 285 11 2.3% 98 4 0 1 9 44% 100 4.3 98 0.0 1 5 0
Kyle Peko 29 DE 8 157 10 2.6% -- 8 3 1 7 86% -- 1.6 -- 2.0 1 3 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Maxx Crosby 25 DE 17 925 63 7.0% 19 55 27 4 39 87% 8 1.1 6 8.0 22 49 5
Yannick Ngakoue* 27 DE 17 834 31 3.5% 81 23 15 7 17 53% 91 4.0 90 10.0 14 34 2
Carl Nassib* 29 DE 13 251 21 3.1% -- 18 7 2 19 84% -- 2.0 -- 1.5 2 6 0
Chandler Jones 32 OLB 15 824 44 5.9% 37 36 23 6 26 81% 14 1.2 7 10.5 15 25 3
Kyler Fackrell 31 OLB 13 382 17 2.5% 98 13 5 1 11 73% 43 2.6 52 3.0 1 5 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Denzel Perryman 30 MLB 15 864 157 19.9% 3 81 18 13 81 67% 11 3.6 29 0.0 3 4 59 42% 54 5.8 28 3 0
Cory Littleton* 29 OLB 17 661 99 11.0% 51 40 12 13 54 48% 69 4.3 63 0.5 1 2 31 39% 63 6.0 31 4 0
K.J. Wright* 33 OLB 17 425 51 5.7% 82 30 4 6 39 64% 20 3.3 17 0.0 0 2 6 67% -- 5.7 -- 0 0
Divine Deablo 24 OLB 17 297 40 4.5% -- 16 2 2 23 52% -- 5.0 -- 0.0 0 2 9 56% -- 10.1 -- 1 0
Kenny Young 28 ILB 13 645 76 10.7% 56 42 15 11 42 64% 18 4.6 70 2.0 0 6 27 41% 60 9.7 72 1 0
Jayon Brown 27 ILB 10 420 56 11.5% 49 28 7 7 30 60% 31 3.6 30 0.0 0 1 12 58% -- 7.1 -- 2 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.82 3.89 4 70% 25 22% 7 1.12 11 0.56 9 14.2% 11 32 6.1% 27 29.6% 21 11.1% 30
2020 4.82 4.55 21 70% 22 19% 13 1.40 28 1.02 28 15.8% 5 21 4.5% 29 22.8% 26 11.3% 23
2021 4.27 4.07 11 55% 1 17% 16 1.17 16 0.76 22 15.1% 11 35 5.9% 24 26.4% 11 17.4% 4
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 2.94 (3) Left Tackle: 4.20 (15) Mid/Guard: 4.39 (18) Right Tackle: 3.48 (5) Right End: 3.75 (11)

Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones are going to be a problem in Patrick Graham’s Belichick-scented system. Crosby led the
NFL in hurries (49) and finished second to Myles Garrett in pressures (80) despite frequent double teams. Jones started last
season torrid but recorded just 15 pressures in the Cardinals’ final six games, including their wild-card loss to the Rams, where
he was nearly invisible. The now 32-year-old Jones may have been gassed, especially after J.J. Watt’s absence made him the
focal point of every opponent’s protection late in the year. Both Crosby and Jones could be nerfed to a degree by strong offen-
sive lines last year; only the strongest offensive lines will be able to handle both. 🏈 Denzel Perryman led all linebackers in
coverage targets (59) and completions allowed (42). Perryman cannot be trusted covering anyone more dangerous than the typi-
cal TE2, but Graham may have no choice but to use him as a three-down linebacker. 🏈 Newcomer Jayon Brown recorded
seven sacks for the 2018 Titans but rarely rushed the passer last year. Brown is competing with Devine Deablo to replace Cory
Littleton as the Raiders’ nominal coverage linebacker. Deablo, a Mayock Special as a third-round pick, left Virginia Tech touted
as a Honey Badger type when he was really just a straight-linish athlete who played a lot of positions because he was a tall/
fast dude in a college system. Deablo showed promise as a between-the-tackles run defender late in the 2021 season but looks
like a weaksauce version of Perryman in coverage. 🏈 Nose tackle Jonathan Hankins, a stout run defender for the Giants in
the mid-2010s, is now well into the downside of his career. Vernon Butler and Bilal Nichols were imported from Buffalo and
Chicago in the offseason to flank Hankins. Butler was a Dave Gettleman project who never developed. Nichols is sturdy but
unspectacular. On the plus side, both appear well-suited to two-gap, 5-technique type roles in Graham’s defense. 🏈 New
backup edge rusher Kyler Fackrell played for Graham’s Giants in 2020. Fackrell should spell Jones in some situations and
could line up outside him in a few blitz packages. 🏈 Clelin Ferrell remains on the roster because the Raiders are paying him
$9 million guaranteed and might as well get something out of it. Graham likes big outside linebackers who can add some value
as run defenders, so there’s a slight chance Ferrell will prove himself useful as Jones’ early-down stunt double.
136 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Tre’von Moehrig 23 FS 17 1153 58 6.5% 72 11 4 9 25 4% 75 11.6 73 19 4.4% 70 16.6 47% 54 7.9 49 6 1
Casey Hayward* 33 CB 17 1092 55 6.1% 74 27 10 3 16 63% 7 3.4 7 47 11.5% 79 17.2 55% 37 8.4 63 9 1
Johnathan Abram 26 SS 14 954 118 16.0% 1 47 18 15 55 47% 18 5.3 15 38 10.6% 24 9.1 61% 21 6.2 24 4 1
Nate Hobbs 23 CB 16 838 73 8.7% 41 33 12 12 32 59% 12 4.8 21 36 11.5% 80 7.9 36% 80 7.5 49 3 1
Brandon Facyson* 28 CB 12 602 66 10.4% 19 36 10 8 22 64% 5 3.8 10 66 29.3% 2 12.6 45% 71 7.2 39 13 1
Dallin Leavitt 28 FS 16 249 25 3.0% -- 14 8 5 1 0% -- 6.0 -- 15 16.1% -- 11.2 53% -- 6.7 -- 2 0
Desmond Trufant* 32 CB 10 233 23 4.4% -- 12 6 2 3 100% -- 1.7 -- 27 30.7% -- 11.9 63% -- 4.5 -- 6 0
Trayvon Mullen 25 CB 5 229 23 8.7% -- 10 5 2 3 67% -- 6.0 -- 21 24.5% -- 20.2 48% -- 8.8 -- 4 1
Roderic Teamer 25 SS 10 196 15 2.8% -- 8 5 6 6 50% -- 5.2 -- 14 19.1% -- 8.4 79% -- 2.9 -- 1 0
Duron Harmon 31 SS 17 1072 69 7.5% 65 18 9 3 30 23% 64 8.3 55 21 5.5% 65 11.3 43% 62 9.2 57 5 2
Anthony Averett 28 CB 14 808 64 9.5% 29 20 10 6 5 40% 46 5.2 29 90 25.8% 4 12.0 56% 33 6.7 29 11 3
Rock Ya-Sin 26 CB 13 591 39 6.0% 75 15 8 8 8 50% 22 4.5 14 39 16.6% 70 12.3 56% 30 4.6 2 8 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 30 18.4% 28 32.0% 31 -4.7% 14 16.9% 29 15.4% 24 9.3% 25 34.0% 30
2020 26 20.4% 29 11.9% 25 19.7% 29 24.1% 31 17.6% 29 -15.4% 5 2.5% 20
2021 21 3.4% 19 11.5% 25 2.6% 19 0.5% 22 11.5% 21 18.2% 25 0.5% 20

Outgoing defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was a Pete Carroll Cover-3 disciple, and the 2021 Raiders cornerback corps
was full of thirtysomething veterans such as Casey Hayward and Desmond Trufant, plus an assortment of catastrophic Mike
Mayock draft picks. So Bradley lined free safety Tre’von Moehrig in the parking lot on most snaps while strong safety Jonathan
Abram, a big hitter but a coverage liability, remained almost strictly in the box as a faux Kam Chancellor. The results were easy
pickings for any opponent whose entire offense wasn’t in COVID protocols. 🏈 Graham is more multiple than Bradley, and
he has slightly better cornerbacks at his disposal. Moehrig performed well in deep-deep-deep centerfield and could thrive if
given more responsibilities. Abram is coming off season-ending shoulder surgery in 2021, and the Raiders did not exercise his
fifth-year option. Abram possesses leadership traits that the new regime will love, but his ballistic play style and speed limita-
tions may reduce him to role-player status for the remainder of his career. 🏈 Duron Harmon started at safety for the Patriots
for years before embarking on poverty-tourism visits to the Lions and Falcons. Harmon could end up earning some free safety
snaps with Moehrig moving into a more versatile role and Abram serving as a nickel linebacker type. 🏈 Slot cornerback
Nate Hobbs had a complicated rookie season. Hobbs’ coverage discouraged opposing quarterbacks from throwing in his direc-
tion, but they often had success when they did, as Hobbs finished last among qualifying cornerbacks in both target rate and
success rate. Hobbs was better early in the season, giving up 4.3 yards per target in Weeks 1 to 5 and then 10.0 yards per target
in Weeks 6 to 18. 🏈 Rock Ya-Sin was a buzzy prospect out of Temple in 2019 and played just well enough in three seasons
with the Colts to never quite escape role player/CB3 status. Ya-Sin generally played one of the outside corner positions when
Kenny Moore moved to the slot, with Moore staying on the field when the Colts only needed two corners. Ya-Sin and Hobbs
may share similar duties. 🏈 Trayvon Mullen and Anthony Averett will compete for the other outside cornerback role. Averett
filled in capably during the extinction-level event in the Ravens secondary last year, but the South Jersey native fits best as a
dime defender and special teamer. Mullen was a mainstay of offseason “Raiders 2022 Breakout Candidate” listicles, because
someone had to be. Mullen showed some glimmer of promise against early-season opponents who were unwilling (Ravens) or
unable (Steelers, Dolphins) to challenge defenses downfield before suffering a toe injury. He returned from injury just to get
used as a launchpad by Tyreek Hill in Week 12, then reinjured his toe. Mullen could lose his scholarship if he loses his starting
role: fourth cornerback Darius Phillips projects as a core special teamer and possible punt returner, and former Eagles bottom-
of-the-roster survivor Cre’Von LeBlanc is the defensive back best suited to replace Hobbs if needed.
 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 137

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -2.3% 25 -7.8 28 2.5 12 0.7 11 -5.5 23 -1.6 18 -6.0 25
2020 1.5% 13 4.0 11 0.0 18 -1.2 17 2.1 14 2.9 10 7.7 8
2021 -0.9% 21 4.0 10 -5.7 28 -5.6 28 2.7 10 -0.3 15 -7.6 28

A.J. Cole earned his first All-Pro selection in 2021 and is on his way to becoming a worthy successor to Raiders punting
legends Ray Guy and Shane Lechler. Cole led the NFL in gross punting average and forced a fumble against Chiefs returner
Mike Hughes. “I think I got more creditability from that hit than any other play I have had in my entire career,” Cole joked
a few days afterwards. Cole also led the NFL with 55.4 gross yards per punt on kicks from inside his own 35-yard line 🏈
The Raiders’ punt and kickoff coverage units were weak last season, which is one reason why Cole ended up forcing a fumble.
Josh McDaniels imported several veterans with excellent special teams reputations (Mack Hollins, Brandon Bolden, Micah
Kiser, Darius Phillips) in a Belichickian effort to make sure the Raiders enjoy more field-position advantages. Even with some
of Cole’s longest punts resulting in substantial returns, Raiders opponents started their average drive on the 26.0-yard line, the
third-toughest starting field position in the league. 🏈 The Raiders would not have come near the playoffs without Daniel
Carlson, who led the NFL in both field goals (40) and attempts (43). Carlson went 4-for-4 in a 26-17 victory over the Steelers in
Week 2, 5-for-5 with a 56-yarder and an overtime game-winner in the 36-33 victory over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, 3-for-
3 with a 48-yarder at the gun in the Week 15 COVID-impacted 16-14 victory over the Browns, and 5-for-5 with two overtime
field goals in the season-ending win over the Chargers. Carlson finished last in the league in gross kickoff value last year but
was average before that. Hollins, Bolden, and Kiser should keep kickoff returns from becoming a problem. 🏈 Hunter Ren-
frow returns as the primary punt returner, with Kenyan Drake slated to handle kickoff returns. Phillips could replace Renfrow,
who is too valuable as an offensive performer (and too ordinary as a returner) to risk on punts. Drake returned a kickoff for a
touchdown as a rookie in 2015 but hasn’t had a return over 35 yards since.
 Los Angeles Chargers
2021 record: 9-8 Total DVOA: 8.7% (12) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.8 wins On the Clock (0-5): 6%
Pythagorean Wins: 8.9 (17) Offense: 16.0% (4) Postseason Odds: 62.1% Mediocrity (6-8): 24%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.3 (18) Defense: 4.8% (26) Super Bowl Odds: 12.0% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: 0.6% (15) Special Teams: -2.4% (28) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -1.0% (23) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 27%

2021: Justin Herbert becomes the coolest band on the side stage.

2022: Justin Herbert headlines a festival, ready or not.

T he best defense may really be a great offense. And in the

pass-happy NFL, the best run defense may actually be a
great pass defense.
answer is “Jerry Tillery.” The long answer, as you would ex-
pect, was more nuanced.

The Los Angeles Chargers missed the playoffs in 2021 be- • All of the Chargers’ interior defensive linemen were
cause they could not stop the run. That’s an oversimplifica- a little too easy to push around, with Tillery be-
tion, but not much of one. The Chargers defense ranked 30th ing the most movable of the glorified blocking sleds.
in DVOA against the run and 28th in adjusted line yards.
Their defense ranked 25th on third-/fourth-and-short and 26th • Brandon Staley’s scheme, which often called for two
in goal-to-go situations, a pair of high-leverage splits heavily defensive tackles, two edges, and two linebackers as an
influenced by stopping the run. early-down base package, didn’t make things any easier
In their season-ending, playoff-dashing loss to the Raiders, for Tillery and friends on the interior. Opponents rushed
the Chargers allowed 174 rushing yards and just 172 passing against a Chargers box of six or fewer defenders 194 times,
yards. The Raiders converted on third-and-23 with a 23-yard the fifth highest total in the NFL, per Sports Info Solu-
Josh Jacobs run before halftime, leading to a touchdown. Ja- tions. The Chargers allowed 5.5 yards per carry against
cobs gained 17 yards on back-to-back overtime carries to set light boxes, far worse than the league average figure of
up the Raiders’ game-winning field goal. A Chargers fourth- 4.8 yards per carry. All of those 6-yard chunks meant
and-1 failure at their own 18-yard line became the game’s more chances for opponents to stay ahead of the sticks.
most talked-about play—we’ll open that can of worms in
due time—but the Chargers lost to the Raiders because they • Offensive linemen reached the second level of the Char-
couldn’t get a stop from their run defense when they needed gers defense with ease, where things got really messy.
one. Drue Tranquill often got wired to blockers. Kenneth Mur-
Two weeks earlier, Rex Burkhead—Rex freakin’ Burk- ray either reacted late or took a bad angle. Kyzir White
head—rushed for 149 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-29 did a little of both. And once running backs reached the
Texans upset. Burkhead had runs of 36, 25, 15, and 14 yards open field, they discovered that Nasir Adderley and As-
in that game, the 14-yarder coming on second-and-12 late in ante Samuel were unreliable tacklers.
the fourth quarter when the Chargers were burning timeouts
to try to get the ball back. Again, there were other problems, Faced with the not-so daunting task of beefing up their run
including a COVID breakout that wiped out the Chargers re- defense this offseason, the Chargers instead committed most
ceiver corps and a fourth-quarter pick-six by Justin Herbert. of their resources to upgrading their pass defense. They traded
But you get the idea: if the Chargers could have stopped an an- a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 sixth-rounder for edge
cient Patriots committee back from looking like Barry Sand- rusher Khalil Mack, then signed free-agent cornerback J.C.
ers, they would have beaten the Texans and not needed to beat Jackson away from the Patriots with a reported five-year,
the Raiders to reach the playoffs. $82.5-million contract. The Chargers did add former Rams
And then there was the Week 12 loss in which the Broncos defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day for three years and
rushed for 105 yards in the first half alone, with Javonte Wil- a reported $24 million, as well as former Giants defender
liams waltzing into the end zone on third-and-goal from the Austin Johnson on a more modest deal. But they also plan to
9-yard line while Drew Lock was filling in for Teddy Bridge- replace White with former Rams linebacker Troy Reeder, a
water. That loss also featured an early-game fourth-and-short lateral move at best.
failure and a pair of Herbert interceptions, one of them a tip The logic behind the Chargers’ splashiest acquisitions isn’t
drill. But come on: Drew Lock was under center. Stop the that difficult to parse. Pass defense is more important than run
rookie running back on third-and-long. Hold the Broncos to a defense. High-impact edge rushers and cornerbacks are hard-
field goal. This shouldn’t be that difficult. er to acquire than defensive tackles or box linebackers. Sack
What was wrong with the Chargers run defense? The short Davis Mills into oblivion and you don’t have to worry about
138
 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 139

2021 LAC DVOA by Week

2022 Chargers Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 LV 7 SEA 13 at LV
2 at KC (Thu.) 8 BYE 14 MIA 40%
3 JAX 9 at ATL 15 TEN 20%
4 at HOU 10 at SF 16 at IND (Mon.)
0%
5 at CLE 11 KC 17 LAR
6 DEN (Mon.) 12 at ARI 18 at DEN -20%

-40%

-60%

Rex Burkhead. If the Chargers can’t keep pace with the high- -80%

octane Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals, plus the improved Raid- -100%

ers and Broncos offenses, a few 8-yard gashes off right tackle
won’t matter much.
Furthermore, Mack has been a sturdy run defender for most
of his career, and Joseph-Day and Johnson add about 630 The Chargers led the league in Football Outsiders’ Aggres-
pounds of run-stuffing beef to supplement or supplant Tillery siveness Index at 2.08, meaning they were a smidge more than
(expected to have a reduced role) and the aging Linval Jo- twice as likely to go for it compared to the average team. Fur-
seph (gone). Still, there’s a sense that the Chargers had one thermore, we recalibrated the definition of an “average team” for
job to do this offseason but failed to do it. They were like a sit- 2021 because fourth-down conversion attempts have skyrock-
com husband sent to the supermarket to buy veggies to serve eted over the last few seasons, thanks to those awful analytics
alongside a steak dinner, only to come home with more steak. nerds. (You are very welcome.) Using the baselines we estab-
The Chargers addressed their other, less pressing needs the lished in the early 2010s, Staley’s Chargers were more than three
same way they addressed their run defense this offseason: times as likely to go for it as a 1990s head coach, the guy sitting
with unconventional, lateral solutions, as opposed to simply next to you at Wingz ‘n’ Sudz, or Phil Simms would advise.
acquiring Player X to fill Need Y. Football Outsiders Almanac is no place for a referendum
Take right tackle, the Chargers’ most glaring offensive weak- on the wisdom of fourth-down aggressiveness, any more than
ness in 2021. Bryan Bulaga’s back injury in the 2021 season a cathedral is the place for a referendum about whether folks
opener forced Storm Norton, a practice squad hanger-on for should pray more often. Some of Staley’s highest-profile con-
multiple teams in his first three NFL seasons, into the starting version attempts were so bold that they strained the tolerances
lineup. Norton was a disaster in pass protection, finishing third of our fourth-down probability calculators. But after decades
in the NFL with 42 blown blocks, plus five holding penalties. of lamenting coaches for not going for it nearly enough, we
Right tackle is not a difficult roster spot for a team with ample aren’t about to criticize Staley for possibly overcorrecting just
cap space to fill. But the Chargers ignored their offensive line a teensy bit.
in free agency, then drafted Boston College center/guard Zion That said, if a coach strives to live on the bleeding edge of
Johnson with the 17th overall pick in the draft. fourth-down probabilities, he should do everything possible
Again, there’s some method to the Chargers’ madness. All to increase his odds. The Chargers ranked 19th in DVOA
of the top tackle prospects except Northern Iowa’s Trevor Pen- on third-/fourth-and-short and 14th in goal-to-go situations.
ning were off the board when they selected, and Penning is Those aren’t terrible splits, but if Staley plans to go for it on
more of a project and a potential reach than both #DraftTwit- fourth-and-1 in the shadow of the Chargers goalposts with the
ter and the Saints (who chose him 19th overall) made him playoffs on the line, he should strive to assemble a league-best
out to be. Chargers left guard Matt Feiler played right tackle short-yardage unit with a better package of plays at the ready
capably for the Steelers early in his career and should be able than thudding Austin Ekeler into the middle of a porous of-
to kick out again. Johnson can replace Feiler, with sixth-round fensive line twice in a row.
rookie Jamaree Salyer (Georgia) or last year’s fifth-round pick Shuffling the offensive line will have an unpredictable ef-
Brenden Jaimes (Nebraska) taking over for stopgap veterans fect on the Chargers’ short-yardage game. Fourth-round pick
Oday Aboushi and Michael Schofield at right guard. Isaiah Spiller could replace Ekeler in short-yardage situations,
It’s simple! No wait: it’s needlessly complicated, and it though a) Spiller tended to dance behind the line of scrim-
could result in two rookie starters and a veteran readjusting to mage a little too much at Texas A&M; and b) we said the same
his former position on an offensive line that’s expected to pro- thing about Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree after the last
pel Herbert into the stratosphere and the Chargers deep into two drafts. Seventh-round pick Zander Horvath (Purdue) adds
the playoffs. a true fullback to an offense that lines up in the I-formation
The weakness of the right side of the offensive line fed into four or five times per game, often in short yardage. New tight
one of the Chargers’ most talked-about habits/issues of 2021: end Gerald Everett is a better blocker than Jared Cook and
ultra-aggressiveness on fourth downs, with sometimes cata- much less likely to drop a pass on the 2-yard line with no de-
strophic results. fenders in position to stop him from scoring.
140 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

All the incremental changes might have a positive impact Mahomes on their tier charts this offseason. Some of that
on fourth downs, as could more experience and better luck. can be written off as attention-seeking or early-adoption be-
Still, it just feels like the Chargers needed to add a fourth- havior. But while Herbert has joined Mahomes as the best
down secret weapon in the middle rounds: a traditional bat- young quarterbacks the NFL has seen since Luck and Russell
tering-ram rusher, a slot jitterbug to catch goal-line slants, or Wilson, it’s important to remember that he hasn’t even led
perhaps 390-pound Daniel Faalele to impersonate The Fridge. the Chargers to the playoffs yet. And that’s not QB WINZ
So the Chargers didn’t address their most obvious needs as logic rearing its head: Herbert threw interceptions while try-
directly as we might have expected, instead adding a pair of ing to lead comeback bids in the Texans and Broncos losses
blue-chip veteran defenders and hoping the rest will sort itself cited above. Herbert isn’t done baking yet, though the kitchen
out with the help of a stray defensive tackle and a rookie guard smells really, really good.
or two. Their offseason strategy suggests a disconnect between There are no real reasons for Herbert pessimism, but there
the Chargers’ self-scouting and our perception of them. The are at least two reasons for somewhat subdued optimism. The
Chargers may expect defenders such as Murray to improve. first is the Chargers playmaker corps, which is fine but falls
They may see Salyer or fifth-round defensive tackle Otito Og- well short of the current Bengals, let alone the Greatest Show
bonnia (UCLA) as immediate-impact contributors. Staley and on Turf.
offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi probably believe they can Chargers receivers dropped 38 passes, the third-highest to-
improve their run defense and short-yardage execution with tal in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions. Pro Foot-
some tweaks to their play calling and installation. ball Reference ranks the Chargers first in the NFL with the
The Chargers may also assume that they’ll have plenty of same number of drops, which speaks to the subjectivity of the
margin of error because Herbert is going to throw for 600 still-unofficial statistic. If there was a category for “well, may-
yards and six touchdowns per game with Mack, Jackson, Joey be that’s not technically a drop, because it was a tight window
Bosa, Derwin James, and others punishing any quarterback and the defender made a play, but it would have been nice if
who dares to try and keep up. the receiver hauled it in,” the Chargers would probably have
Herbert is wonderful. No quarterback in history has thrown led the league in it.
for more yards (9,350) in his first two seasons; Andrew Luck Dropped pass rates don’t correlate meaningfully from year
is over 1,000 yards away in second place. Herbert’s 69 pass- to year, so there’s a good chance that the Chargers’ drop rate
ing touchdowns in two years is also an all-time record, sur- will regress toward the mean. But there’s also a chance that
passing Dan Marino with 68. Herbert’s 2,202 passing DYAR the Chargers drop rate points to the limitations of Herbert’s
in his first two seasons ranks third on the all-time list behind receiver corps. Keenan Allen is still effective, but he’s 30 and
Marino and Peyton Manning (Table 1). Herbert has an out- now hovers around the 10.0-yards-per-catch line. Allen led
standing arm, makes great decisions in the pocket, and is cre- the Chargers with eight drops in 2021. Mike Williams is a
ative and daring on the run. If he takes a Josh Allen third-year quality deep/boundary threat, though many of his targets are
leap, as the Internet assures us all that he is absolutely 100% highly contested, and he dropped seven passes last year. Ekel-
guaranteed to do, he will become more powerful than Thanos er is a dynamic rusher/receiver who dropped six of 93 targets.
and rule the cosmos with his unique brand of shaggy, easy- Anthracite-handed Cook is gone, but he has been replaced by
going benevolence. Gerald Everett, who dropped seven passes for the 2020 Rams
and appeared on the Seahawks blooper reel a few times last
Table 1. Top QB by Passing year. Herbert’s tertiary targets include Spiller, third receiver
Josh Palmer, and designated home-run threat Jalen Guyton:
DYAR in Years 1-2, 1981-2021 middling prospects that Herbert will be tasked with elevating
if they are forced into bigger roles.
Years Player Team Y1 Y2 Total The other reason for Herbert caution is more subtle. Her-
1983-84 D.Marino MIA 885 2,437 3,322 bert was outstanding on third-/fourth-and-long. He converted
1998-99 P.Manning IND 697 1,581 2,278 36 first downs on 84 pass attempts on late downs with 7 or
2020-21 J.Herbert LAC 861 1,341 2,202 more yards to go, including a stunning six first downs on
2017-18 P.Mahomes KC 54 2,031 2,085 seven fourth-and-long pass attempts. Most notable of these
2004-05 B.Roethlisberger PIT 908 885 1,793 passes were a fourth-and-21 touchdown to Palmer and a
2008-09 M.Ryan ATL 1,012 702 1,714 fourth-and-12 conversion to Williams in the fourth quarter of
2016-17 D.Prescott DAL 1,302 375 1,677 the Week 18 Raiders game, each of which would have earned
2012-13 R.Wilson SEA 872 770 1,642 catchy 1970s-style nicknames (The Sin City Miracle, The
1999-00 D.Culpepper MIN -24 1,352 1,328 River of Helmets Throw) had the Chargers won. The Chargers
2018-19 L.Jackson BAL 24 1,261 1,285 ranked second to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in third-/
fourth-and-long offensive DVOA.
Ah, we slid off the rails a bit at the end of that last paragraph. Late-down conversions are a good thing, right? Of course.
Herbert has undeniable gifts and MVP-caliber upside, But they are also a high-volatility variable. Herbert’s Next
but the narrative cart has gotten a little ahead of his horse. Big Thing reputation is built in large part on his great fourth-
There were credible folks placing Herbert ahead of Patrick and-destiny escapes, most notably a few heroic throws in that
 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 141

doomed season finale. But even a minor random downturn flagged incessantly for downfield contact; Cook and Joshua
in Herbert’s late-down success could have an extreme impact Kelley fumbling and bumbling at the goal line; defenders get-
on the Chargers’ performance while sending the tastemakers ting caught by surprise by routine running plays; and Staley
scurrying off to toss rose petals at Tua Tagovailoa or someone. perhaps being a teensy bit too eager to tempt fate. The Char-
Again: from a problem-to-solution flowchart standpoint, add- gers added turbochargers to their defense but didn’t quite fix
ing another premier weapon would have been a logical answer all the little leaks elsewhere, making them a high-variance
to Herbert’s dropped-pass problem and may have improved the team in a high-variance division in a fiercely competitive
fourth-down situation to boot. Instead, the Chargers extended AFC.
Williams’ contract before the receiver market went crazypants DVOA projects the Chargers to win the AFC West, but all
(a shrewd move), swapped out their mistake-prone tight ends, four teams are clustered 1.3 mean wins. The division race,
and are likely hoping for improvement from Palmer. These and the playoff seedings it will determine, may come down
aren’t bad decisions at all, but they again reflect a disconnect to a dropped pass or missed tackle on fourth-and-short or the
between the public’s perception of the Chargers, their self-per- ability to prevent a gash run in a high-leverage situation. The
ception, and what the 2021 metrics say about them. Chargers appear to think that their problems in those catego-
The 2022 Chargers look like a very good team with ample ries were growing pains in 2021. If they are right, they’re a
star power and Super Bowl potential. They also look a little Super Bowl team. If they were wrong, they’ll wonder why
unfinished. They certainly appeared unready for prime time they made such a simple offseason to-do list so complicated.
down the stretch last season, with Norton getting rag-dolled
by Maxx Crosby; Murray, Samuel, and Mike Davis getting Mike Tanier

2021 Chargers by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at WAS W 40% 20 16 424 259 -1 -8% -7% -3% -4% Total DVOA 16.0% 4 4.8% 26
2 DAL L 9% 17 20 408 419 -1 -2% 17% 13% -6% Unadjusted VOA 15.8% 5 6.6% 26
3 at KC W 42% 30 24 352 437 4 4% 23% 4% -14% Weighted Trend 16.0% 6 5.6% 27
4 LV W 100% 28 14 380 213 1 61% 31% -29% 1% Variance 7.0% 13 4.6% 12
5 CLE W 40% 47 42 493 531 -1 19% 61% 38% -5% Average Opponent 0.9% 26 0.9% 12
6 at BAL L 3% 6 34 208 327 1 -68% -54% -1% -15%
7 BYE Passing 33.7% 4 7.0% 19
8 NE L 23% 24 27 369 352 -1 30% 19% -20% -9% Rushing -4.2% 14 2.4% 30
9 at PHI W 60% 27 24 445 331 0 7% 21% 17% 3%
First Down 10.3% 8 9.4% 26
10 MIN L 3% 20 27 253 381 0 -22% 1% 15% -9%
Second Down 14.0% 9 3.8% 20
11 PIT W 97% 41 37 533 300 -1 37% 64% 9% -17%
Third Down 29.4% 2 -1.8% 17
12 at DEN L 17% 13 28 357 302 -1 -19% -5% 7% -7%
13 at CIN W 99% 41 22 363 356 1 52% 17% -24% 11% First Half 23.3% 3 -1.8% 15
14 NYG W 99% 37 21 423 316 2 7% 19% 12% 0% Second Half 8.6% 11 11.3% 27
15 KC L 38% 28 34 428 496 0 18% 8% 4% 13%
16 at HOU L 8% 29 41 417 437 -3 -39% 16% 58% 3% Red Zone 14.2% 7 1.2% 17
17 DEN W 100% 34 13 341 319 1 64% 30% -5% 29% Late and Close 8.8% 10 12.7% 27
18 at LV L 49% 32 35 440 346 -2 -2% 1% -12% -16%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 10.5 8.2 355 272 +12 6.8% 13 10.3% 8 -3.9% 10 -7.5% 31 35.4 17 31.9 13 27.6 5 25.7 26 25.4 25
2018 12-4 10.6 10.9 428 329 +1 22.1% 4 20.8% 3 -4.1% 10 -2.8% 25 30.7 11 52.2 29 27.8 7 25.7 26 25.4 29
2019 5-11 7.8 5.5 337 345 -17 -8.9% 22 3.5% 12 7.2% 25 -5.1% 32 51.7 24 40.3 21 27.3 7 26.7 10 25.5 23
2020 7-9 6.9 5.1 384 426 +3 -14.7% 26 1.5% 15 4.4% 20 -11.8% 32 45.6 20 63.4 29 25.6 28 26.3 16 25.2 30
2021 9-8 8.9 9.1 474 459 -1 8.7% 12 16.0% 4 4.8% 26 -2.4% 28 36.0 10 34.2 13 26.8 11 26.0 22 25.6 23
142 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

LAC Offense LAC Offense vs. Opponents LAC Defense LAC Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 61% 6.4 27.6% 20% Base 23% 5.3 10.6% 61% Base 24% 5.6 0.9% 11 58% 5.8 2.1%
12 25% 5.4 14.4% 55% Nickel 60% 6.1 19.8% 30% Nickel 63% 5.7 6.3% 12 18% 5.9 -0.2%
13 3% 5.5 -34.2% 54% Dime+ 16% 7.2 39.1% 4% Dime+ 12% 6.9 -1.9% 21 8% 6.5 17.7%
611 3% 8.8 50.4% 71% Goal Line 1% 0.6 12.3% 45% Goal Line 1% 0.8 45.2% 13 7% 5.4 6.7%
21 3% 6.6 13.4% 26% 22 4% 5.2 22.0%
612 2% 4.9 -9.1% 71%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 34% 27 Form: Single Back 83% 16 Rush 3 4.7% 16 4 DB 24% 14 Play Action 28% 13
Runs, first down 44% 27 Form: Empty Back 6% 27 Rush 4 68.4% 21 5 DB 63% 14 Offensive Motion 40% 20
Runs, second-long 22% 26 Form: Multi Back 11% 12 Rush 5 23.3% 8 6+ DB 12% 20 Avg Box (Off) 6.44 20
Runs, power sit. 57% 17 Pers: 3+ WR 63% 19 Rush 6+ 3.6% 20 Man Coverage 27% 21 Avg Box (Def) 6.56 12
Runs, behind 2H 24% 26 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 35% 8 Edge Rusher Sacks 55.7% 17 CB by Sides 59% 27 Offensive Pace 29.48 6
Pass, ahead 2H 53% 7 Pers: 6+ OL 5% 10 Interior DL Sacks 27.1% 17 S/CB Cover Ratio 28% 14 Defensive Pace 30.12 6
Run-Pass Options 15% 9 Shotgun/Pistol 61% 21 Second Level Sacks 17.1% 15 DB Blitz 7% 25 Go for it on 4th 2.08 1

The Chargers were near the bottom of the league in frequency of running both wide receiver and running back screens. They
were awful on wide receiver screens (3.3 yards, -36.7% DVOA) but very good in a limited sample of running back screens (9.1,
104.6%). 🏈 The Chargers’ offense was dead last in the NFL with 83 broken tackles last season. Although Austin Ekeler
was tied for 11th in the league with 39, no other Chargers player had more than seven. 🏈 The more yards to go, the better
the Chargers were compared to league baselines. On second down, the Chargers ranked 16th in DVOA with 1 to 6 yards to go
but third with 7-plus yards to go. On third and fourth down, the Chargers were 19th in DVOA with 1 or 2 yards to go, seventh
with 3 to 6 yards to go, and second (behind only Arizona) with 7-plus yards to go. 🏈 With Brandon Staley taking over the
defense, the Chargers more than doubled their blitz rate over 2020. 🏈 The Chargers’ rank of 12th in average box count on
defense is quite a surprise, given how much Staley is known for favoring two-high coverage. The two defenses with the lowest
average box count were Staley’s old Rams squad and his mentor Vic Fangio’s Denver Broncos. 🏈 For three seasons, the
Chargers have been much better against runs from under center compared to runs from shotgun. Last year, they allowed 4.9
yards per carry (11.9% DVOA) from shotgun compared to 4.4 yards per carry (-5.7% DVOA) from under center. 🏈 The
Chargers led the NFL with 66 defensive penalties (including declined and offsetting).

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Herbert 1341 17.4% 702 4799 6.8 5.4 66.0% 38 15 K.Allen 133 -2.3% 157 106 1138 10.7 3.2 6 68%
M.Williams 234 9.6% 129 76 1145 15.1 5.5 9 59%
J.Palmer 63 3.7% 49 33 353 10.7 3.0 4 67%
J.Guyton 120 18.7% 48 31 448 14.5 4.8 3 65%
Rushing D.Carter 33 -3.0% 44 24 296 12.3 3.3 3 55%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc J.Cook* 10 -5.4% 83 48 564 11.8 5.0 4 58%
A.Ekeler 189 11.9% 206 911 4.4 12 0 56% D.Parham 28 7.0% 27 20 190 9.5 6.9 3 74%
J.Jackson* 45 7.0% 68 364 5.4 2 1 51% S.Anderson* 38 18.8% 19 16 165 10.3 7.2 1 84%
J.Herbert 91 18.9% 50 315 6.3 3 0 - T.McKitty 0 -7.2% 8 6 45 7.5 5.7 0 75%
L.Rountree -37 -30.4% 36 87 2.4 1 0 36% G.Everett 37 1.2% 63 48 478 10.0 5.2 4 76%
J.Kelley -49 -42.9% 33 102 3.1 0 1 30% A.Ekeler 136 12.6% 94 70 647 9.2 9.0 8 74%
J.Guyton -7 -58.4% 7 34 4.9 0 1 - J.Jackson* 75 38.7% 25 22 178 8.1 7.5 0 88%
D.Carter 29 13.4% 10 85 8.5 0 1 - J.Kelley 5 5.9% 6 5 38 7.6 6.2 0 83%
 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 143

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Matt Feiler LG 30 16/16 1120 6 2.5 14 4 Michael Schofield* RG 32 15/12 908 2 1.0 18 3
Rashawn Slater LT 23 16/16 1116 6 3.5 17 4 Oday Aboushi* RG 31 5/5 298 2 0.0 2 1
Storm Norton RT 28 17/15 1079 7 6.0 38 4 Trey Pipkins LT/RT 26 12/2 174 1 0.0 2 1
Corey Linsley C 31 16/16 1077 6 0.0 5 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.13 4.37 13 68% 12 20% 21 1.16 19 0.68 21 13.2% 28 34 6.2% 9 30.3% 19 14.7% 24 27
2020 3.91 4.00 29 54% 31 19% 27 1.07 28 0.57 24 14.5% 32 34 6.1% 12 26.5% 21 14.5% 27 19
2021 4.25 4.45 10 60% 25 16% 10 1.23 10 0.61 17 5.4% 1 31 5.0% 5 24.1% 9 13.8% 16 26
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.25 (17) Left Tackle: 4.96 (5) Mid/Guard: 4.36 (12) Right Tackle: 4.14 (17) Right End: 4.95 (8)

Rashawn Slater’s blown block rate of 1.8% ranked third in the NFL among left tackles with more than 400 snaps. Slater was
behind only Andrew Whitworth and Trent Williams, who had a combined 768 years of experience at the position, in contrast
to Slater’s zero years. 🏈 Slater had an eventful offseason, as reported at the start of OTAs by Jeff Miller of the Los Angeles
Times. Slater contracted food poisoning during Pro Bowl week. “We’re in Vegas, so like, no one would believe me,” he joked.
He then married, only to find out during a honeymoon in Bora Bora that the Chargers traded for Khalil Mack. Brandon Staley
texted Slater an order to “get his mind right” after the trade. “I better start doing some pass sets on the beach or something,”
Slater thought. Young man: getting your mind right during your honeymoon means not reading any text messages from work.
🏈 Center Corey Linsley led all starting offensive linemen in the league with a blown block rate of just 0.7%. 🏈 Storm
Norton and Trey Pipkins were competing for the starting right tackle job through the early portion of OTAs, though Staley said
that Matt Feiler could slide over from left guard if called upon. Norton’s issues in 2021 were discussed at length earlier in the
chapter. Maxx Crosby will be watching the Norton/Pipkins battle with drool dribbling down his chin. 🏈 First-round pick
Zion Johnson (Boston College) is likely to anchor one guard spot, with fifth-round pick Jamaree Salyer (Georgia) taking over
the other if/when Feiler is sent forth to rescue Norton and Pipkins. Johnson became a Senior Bowl legend when he worked on
his center snaps after practice in a gusty downpour that sent savvy media members scurrying to the warmth of their rental cars.
Will Clapp, best known as the Saints’ sixth lineman whenever they ran Taysom Hill bullcrap, is listed as the Chargers backup
center, but Johnson would probably slide over if anything happened to Linsley.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Jerry Tillery 26 DE 16 860 51 6.1% 34 35 12 5 43 65% 70 2.8 63 4.5 9 22 0
Linval Joseph* 34 DT 14 551 57 7.8% 8 35 5 0 54 61% 79 3.2 82 1.0 1 10 0
Christian Covington 29 DT 16 524 52 6.2% 32 25 5 2 50 46% 99 3.4 88 1.0 0 4 0
Justin Jones* 26 DE 11 487 38 6.6% 23 27 9 4 33 67% 58 2.9 70 3.0 2 8 1
Austin Johnson 28 DT 17 664 73 7.7% 10 53 12 4 64 75% 26 2.5 43 3.5 3 11 1
Sebastian Joseph-Day 27 DT 7 341 38 10.0% 3 26 5 2 32 72% 40 2.7 57 3.0 2 7 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Joey Bosa 27 OLB 16 848 51 6.1% 33 40 19 10 35 69% 64 2.5 41 10.5 12 40 0
Uchenna Nwosu* 26 OLB 17 782 44 5.0% 54 33 16 8 31 68% 68 2.0 22 5.0 18 30 3
Kyler Fackrell* 31 OLB 13 382 17 2.5% 98 13 5 1 11 73% 43 2.6 52 3.0 1 5 1
Kyle Van Noy 31 OLB 16 810 76 9.5% 2 45 17 7 44 52% 93 3.7 85 5.0 2 20 5
Morgan Fox 28 DE 17 562 34 4.1% 71 25 11 0 28 68% 67 2.1 27 1.5 5 18 0
Khalil Mack 31 OLB 7 315 19 5.6% 45 14 8 1 10 70% 54 5.0 98 6.0 1 14 0
144 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Kyzir White* 26 ILB 17 981 146 16.5% 14 70 25 13 86 51% 59 3.6 31 1.0 3 8 39 67% 6 3.7 3 3 2
Drue Tranquill 27 ILB 14 561 71 9.7% 65 29 11 4 43 40% 81 4.6 72 1.5 1 7 10 50% -- 5.1 -- 1 0
Kenneth Murray 24 ILB 11 364 31 5.4% 84 8 4 5 20 30% 84 6.8 85 0.0 0 5 12 17% -- 7.8 -- 0 0
Amen Ogbongbemiga 24 ILB 15 110 21 2.7% -- 5 2 3 13 23% -- 5.8 -- 1.0 1 1 4 50% -- 10.3 -- 0 0
Troy Reeder 28 ILB 17 681 96 10.4% 57 47 13 15 53 58% 39 3.1 14 2.0 2 7 33 42% 53 6.2 37 6 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.29 4.35 20 63% 14 17% 23 1.06 8 0.78 20 15.5% 7 30 6.2% 25 28.2% 26 16.0% 8
2020 4.58 4.60 22 63% 11 18% 14 1.32 23 0.73 21 14.0% 13 27 5.8% 22 23.1% 23 15.1% 8
2021 4.61 4.67 28 72% 25 14% 25 1.32 28 0.66 17 14.3% 15 35 6.5% 17 26.2% 12 15.0% 17
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.87 (14) Left Tackle: 3.81 (10) Mid/Guard: 4.71 (28) Right Tackle: 5.36 (32) Right End: 5.16 (24)

Khalil Mack played through injuries for much of his Bears career. He battled a knee injury for all of 2020, with back and
shoulder ailments also limiting him in the second half of that season. He suffered a foot injury in Week 3 of last year and played
through it (somewhat effectively) before being shut down for season-ending surgery after Week 7. The Chargers were careful
to work Mack in gradually early in OTAs. Mack is now 31 years old, so his recent injury history bears careful monitoring. 🏈
Joey Bosa led the NFL with seven forced fumbles of quarterbacks. Darius Leonard forced eight fumbles, but some were against
non-quarterbacks. 🏈 Kyle Van Noy signed with the Chargers after his second stint with the Patriots and will provide veteran
pass-rush insurance. “Obviously the end is near, but I’ve still got enough juice,” Van Noy said in his introductory Chargers
press conference. “Everybody thinks I can’t play outside of New England for some reason. I can’t wait to prove all the people
in my life right.” It sure sounds like the person Van Noy is trying hardest to convince is himself. 🏈 Jerry Tillery was a
no-show for OTAs. Yes, OTAs are voluntary, but when you are coming off a miserable season and your team has acquired a
handful of potential replacements, it’s wise to go the extra mile with a little voluntary participation. Brandon Staley made some
none-too-pleased remarks about Tillery’s absence. He’s gonna get cut, folks. 🏈 Linebacker Kenneth Murray, like Tillery,
is a toolsy first-round pick by the past head coach who is in danger of losing his scholarship. Murray played through an ankle
injury in 2021 but waited until April to undergo offseason surgery, apparently after weeks of trying to get healthy through rest
and immobilization. Murray is expected to be ready for training camp. 🏈 Defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, defensive
end Morgan Fox, and linebacker Troy Reeder all played for Staley’s Rams, and that familiarity with the system may be their
best attribute. Murray and Kyzir White often appeared to be a step or two behind the action in 2021, resulting in both gash runs
and coverage errors. Sebastian-Day won’t light up the stat sheet but is hard to move in the middle. Fox specialized in replacing
Sebastian-Day and causing havoc while opponents worried about Aaron Donald. He spent 2021 in Panthers exile, where he was
more of an interior/edge rusher hybrid. Reeder is a liability in coverage whose talents are blowing up fullbacks in the running
game and generating random highlights: a three-sack game against Washington in 2020, an interception on a Carson Wentz
goal-line shovel pass last year. The former talent should help the Chargers’ run defense a bit; the latter could come in handy
when the Chiefs decide to run one of their improv comedy routines at the goal line. 🏈 Drue Tranquill has emerged as the
leader and spokesperson of the Chargers defense. He’ll be just fine if he’s not getting walloped by guards who waltz out to sec-
ond level on 20 running plays per game. Van Noy may also get some opportunities to cover Murray and/or Reeder’s limitations.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Nasir Adderley 25 FS 15 989 101 12.9% 14 33 10 19 61 36% 37 8.2 53 26 7.6% 47 12.4 38% 68 10.6 67 5 0
Derwin James 26 SS 15 962 123 15.7% 2 51 20 9 66 36% 36 6.2 26 44 13.2% 7 10.3 70% 2 4.5 6 5 2
Michael Davis 27 CB 14 853 66 9.0% 37 25 5 8 17 29% 60 6.2 40 73 24.8% 10 11.4 62% 13 5.7 15 12 1
Chris Harris* 33 CB 14 749 43 5.9% 78 14 5 7 11 36% 51 6.7 50 40 15.5% 72 11.2 50% 56 7.2 38 6 1
Asante Samuel 23 CB 12 693 54 8.6% 42 24 10 13 12 50% 22 4.5 14 47 19.6% 42 11.0 49% 62 7.2 40 11 2
Tevaughn Campbell 29 CB 16 679 42 5.0% -- 13 7 9 6 33% -- 6.3 -- 49 20.9% -- 13.1 47% -- 8.4 -- 4 0
Alohi Gilman 25 SS 11 355 37 6.4% -- 6 2 9 15 20% -- 8.6 -- 11 9.0% -- 10.1 36% -- 7.7 -- 1 1
J.C. Jackson 27 CB 17 945 81 9.5% 24 39 23 13 19 37% 50 12.7 80 87 25.1% 8 11.5 62% 11 6.1 21 23 8
Bryce Callahan 31 CB 11 505 33 6.2% -- 12 4 5 8 25% -- 6.1 -- 36 17.7% -- 11.7 53% -- 8.1 -- 4 0
 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 145
Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 20 7.7% 23 0.1% 16 -13.3% 8 -14.5% 10 11.9% 21 -1.7% 13 -1.9% 19
2020 17 -17.1% 5 15.4% 27 1.1% 16 -4.0% 13 -1.9% 16 5.4% 20 -0.3% 17
2021 19 22.9% 31 -18.7% 3 -12.0% 6 -5.4% 18 2.8% 13 14.1% 23 -14.9% 8

J.C. Jackson’s coverage statistics from 2018 through 2021: 258 attempts, 126 completions, 1,598 yards, seven touchdowns,
25 interceptions, 31 passes defensed, a 48.9% completion rate, 6.2 yards per attempt and a 38.1 opposing passer rating. The
passer rating for throwing nothing but incompletions is 39.6, meaning that according to the rating formula (which is a flawed,
outdated mess but is still fun to use for dramatic comparisons), opposing quarterbacks have been better off just tossing the ball
out of bounds than targeting Jackson’s receivers for the last four years. Cornerback target stats tend to fluctuate wildly from
year to year, so Jackson’s consistently low completion rates and high interception rates are truly remarkable. Despite what they
may be saying on Patriots subreddits, Jackson’s numbers probably are not the exclusive result of Bill Belichick’s brilliance,
and he’s unlikely to “fall apart just like everyone else who leaves Foxborough.” 🏈 Derwin James finally had the season we
have been waiting for since 2018. He will play 2022 under the fifth-year option of his rookie contract, and the Chargers did not
appear to be in any rush to extend him at press time, perhaps leery of their miserable luck with freakish fell-down-a-manhole-
type minicamp injuries. James was a full participant in OTAs despite the low-key contract impasse and all the Final Destina-
tion stuff that happened to him and others in the past. 🏈 Bryce Callahan, who signed after the draft, is best known as a slot
cornerback. But Brandon Staley indicated that he wants Callahan and Asante Samuel, coming off a strong rookie season, to be
able to play both in the slot and on the outside. 🏈 Mike Davis drew lots of WR1 assignments in 2021 and did not handle
them well. Davis had a 43% coverage success rate with 7.8 yards per pass covering No. 1 receivers, compared to a 67% success
rate with 4.9 yards per pass against anyone else. He’s likely to move into a matchup role against taller receivers, with Jackson
locking down the Davante Adams types on the Chargers schedule. 🏈 Nasir Adderley entered the NFL as a safety/corner hy-
brid but now appears most effective as a traditional free safety. The additions of Jackson and Callahan should limit Adderley’s
appearances as a slot corner. 🏈 Third-round pick JT Woods, who led the Big 12 with six interceptions in 2021, could push
Adderley. Woods’ nickname at Baylor was HBK, short for “Heartbreak Kid,” because he intercepted so many passes in practice
that he broke the quarterbacks’ hearts. Woods and Jackson should get along just swell.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -5.1% 32 -5.6 26 -6.7 30 -3.3 28 -7.6 27 -2.5 22 13.3 2
2020 -11.8% 32 -12.4 31 -4.5 25 0.0 14 -37.8 32 -4.2 28 0.1 16
2021 -2.4% 28 -4.4 21 1.4 17 7.7 3 -14.7 32 -2.9 26 -12.2 29

The Chargers began last season with K.J. Hill returning punts and various special guest stars (Larry Rountree, Nasir
Adderley, fans wearing Lionel “Little Train” James jerseys) returning kickoffs. Realizing they were getting zilch from their
return game, the Chargers traded for former All-Pro Andre Roberts. Roberts returned a kickoff for a touchdown against the
Broncos in Week 17, then fumbled a kickoff in the Week 18 loss to the Raiders. The Chargers let Roberts walk in the offseason,
signing well-traveled specialist DeAndre Carter to handle the return chores. Undrafted Oregon State rookie Trevon Bradford
will also get a long look as a return man in camp in case something goes wrong with the Chargers special teams. Something
always goes wrong with the Chargers special teams. 🏈 The Chargers signed Dustin Hopkins to a three-year deal in March
after he went 18-of-20 on field goals down the stretch in relief of Tristan Vizcaino, who managed to miss five extra points in 15
attempts. Hopkins kicked for Washington for six seasons without incident. Undrafted rookie James McCourt, who was 18-of-
23 on field goals and perfect on extra points in his final season at Illinois, will get a long audition in training camp in case some-
thing goes wrong with the Chargers special teams. Something always goes wrong with the Chargers special teams. 🏈 J.K.
Scott attempted just four punts for the Jaguars last season after three mediocre years with the Packers. The Chargers know damn
well they’re tempting fate on this front, so they’re giving 6-foot-6, 240-pound Australian footballer Ben Griffiths a long look.
The 30-year-old Griffiths averaged 43.5 yards per punt in three seasons at USC after several seasons as a forward for the Rich-
mond Football Club. If nothing else, Griffiths only needs to add about 10 pounds to be a potential upgrade over Jerry Tillery.
 Los Angeles Rams
2021 record: 12-5 Total DVOA: 21.6% (5) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.5 wins On the Clock (0-5): 7%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.7 (6) Offense: 10.6% (8) Postseason Odds: 62.1% Mediocrity (6-8): 26%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.7 (11) Defense: -8.5% (5) Super Bowl Odds: 11.7% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: 0.5% (16) Special Teams: 2.5% (4) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 1.3% (9) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 23%

2021: The Rams win the Super Bowl with a team-building strategy the NFL had not seen since the 1970s.

2022: L.A.’s still at the table, but can they keep rolling sevens?

C ongratulations to the Los Angeles Rams! Not only did

they make the bold moves necessary to win the Super
Bowl, but they proved Football Outsiders wrong in the pro-
was a critical blocker on third downs. Including the playoffs,
Miller had 9.0 sacks after joining the Rams in Week 10, sec-
ond on the team behind You Know Who. Beckham’s signing
cess. The good news is that Super Bowl rings shine forever, initially seemed like a luxury, but he stepped into a comple-
and despite their zealous dedication to a “win now” mental- mentary role behind the incomparable Cooper Kupp after
ity in 2021, they remain a strong contender going into 2022. Robert Woods tore his ACL. Weddle didn’t play a single game
The bad news is that the aggressive strategy that won them a in the regular season, but he was third on the team with 18
Lombardi Trophy won’t work in the future, and they’ll need total tackles during the playoffs, including a team-high nine in
to shuffle the deck to compete for championships in the years the conference championship win over San Francisco.
ahead. Sean McVay wasted no time getting the most out of his new
Two years ago at this time, the Rams were coming off a toys. An offense that had felt stale and stuffy in prior seasons
disappointing post-Super Bowl campaign, going 9-7 and fail- became adventurous under Stafford, whose average pass trav-
ing to make the playoffs. Our essay in Football Outsiders Al- eled nearly 30% further downfield than Goff’s had the year
manac 2020 praised the daring trade they had made for Jared before. All those deep shots to Beckham, Jefferson, and De-
Goff in the 2016 draft, plus the ensuing deals that brought in Sean Jackson (remember him?) opened room for Kupp, who
Jalen Ramsey, Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler, and other vet- developed from “useful slot guy” to “pro football’s best re-
erans. But we also acknowledged that Goff had plateaued and ceiver.” Stafford’s go-for-broke style led to some lowlights
that most of those veterans were no longer on the roster, and (17 interceptions, tied for most in the league) but a lot of ex-
we said that the Rams would need to be smarter in future years plosive plays (including a league-best 67.2% DVOA against
to return to the postseason. We even wrote at the time that the the blitz). McVay has faith in his scheme and in his players,
Rams had mortgaged their future by going “all in.” Little did and once they were in place he barely tinkered with them at
we know. all. Per NFL GSIS, the Rams used their most common 11-man
L.A. general manager Les Snead spent all of 2021 showing offensive lineup on over 20% of offensive snaps in 2021; no
us what “all in” really means by doubling down on his picks- other offense had one lineup they used even 10% of the time.
for-veterans gambit. (Please bear with us as we get all of our And that most common L.A. lineup included Robert Woods,
forced gambling cliches out of the way in this paragraph.) who missed nearly half the season; had he stayed healthy, a
He already held a strong hand, with a royal flush of receiv- rate of 35% or higher might have been in the cards. (We just
ers on offense and a pair of kings on defense in Ramsey and can’t help it.)
Aaron Donald. In March, he upped the ante, packaging Goff McVay stands in sharp contrast to Raheem Morris, who
with two future first-round draft picks and passing them to loved to mix things up in his first season as the Rams’ defen-
Detroit in exchange for Matthew Stafford. When Cam Akers sive coordinator. Though they operated from a 3-4 base, Mor-
tore his Achilles, Snead rolled the dice on Sony Michel, send- ris often moved to a four-man line or bear front, usually when
ing a sixth-rounder to New England in exchange for the vet- he was expecting a run, and liked to blitz defenders from all
eran back. The Rams further raised the stakes in November, over the field. It was a highlight-driven unit—the Rams were
shipping second- and third-rounders to Denver to get veteran the only defense to make the top five in both sacks and inter-
pass-rusher Von Miller. Snead even had a couple of aces up ceptions.
his sleeve in street free agents, snapping up Odell Beckham It all added up to a team that was good and well-rounded,
after the Browns folded on him and pulling Eric Weddle out of but hardly dominant. Los Angeles ranked between fourth
retirement when injuries hit the secondary on the river. and eighth in overall, offensive, defensive, and special teams
And Snead hit the jackpot on all of his moves. (OK, seri- DVOA. They finished between fifth and 12 on running and
ously, we’re done now.) Stafford was far from perfect, but his passing plays on both sides of the ball. They were seventh
willingness and ability to throw deep fundamentally changed in points scored, 15th in points allowed, sixth in point dif-
the L.A. offense. Michel led the Rams in rushing yards and ferential. The offense committed a lot of gnarly turnovers, and
146
 LOS ANGELES RAMS 147

2021 LAR DVOA by Week

2022 Rams Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp.
80%

1 BUF (Thu.) 7 BYE 13 SEA 60%

2 ATL 8 SF 14 LV (Thu.) 40%
3 at ARI 9 at TB 15 at GB (Mon.) 20%
4 at SF (Mon.) 10 ARI 16 DEN (Xmas)
0%
5 DAL 11 at NO 17 at LAC
6 CAR 12 at KC 18 at SEA -20%

-40%

-60%

the defense was sometimes steamrolled by opponents who -80%

only wanted to kill clock (20th in DVOA when trailing by -100%

more than eight points). This is the profile of a team that gets
knocked out in the divisional round, not a Super Bowl cham-
pion, but the Rams played their best when it mattered most: in
late-and-close situations, they were first in DVOA on offense if the Rams had not just won the Super Bowl.
and third on defense. This was especially true in the playoffs, The numbers tell a plain story. All told, 18 of this year’s
when the winning points against Tampa Bay, San Francisco, 32 first-round picks were traded at least once, in a total of 27
and Cincinnati were all scored in the final two minutes of the trades. Nine of those picks were traded for veterans, with a to-
game, and after the Rams had trailed for most of the second tal of 14 established players involved. Each of those numbers
half against the 49ers and Bengals. is the highest total in the past 10 years (Table 1).
That dramatic playoff run justified Snead’s team-building The trade explosion of 2022 didn’t come out of nowhere;
formula … and proved that, in hindsight, he has been playing these numbers have been gradually rising over the last half-
smart all along. While most of the NFL (and the overwhelm- decade or so, especially in trades involving veterans. That’s
ing majority of the analytics world) was busy comparing the important, because it means the market has caught up with
value of one draft pick to another, Snead realized that draft Snead, and those inefficiencies he exploited no longer exist.
picks as a whole were being overvalued compared to veteran The next time he makes a bid for a veteran back, he’s likely
players. He spotted a market inefficiency and exploited it, to hear that other teams are offering better picks. Snead will
and that’s actually a very analytical thing to do. Furthermore, need to adjust his tactics to keep the Rams at the top of the
simple supply and demand dictates that he was acquiring all NFL pile, because now other teams are willing to trade draft
those vets at something of a discount. It’s not as if a dozen picks too.
teams were calling the Lions and making bids for Stafford; That may not matter, however, because Snead has barely
most were too busy clutching their precious draft picks. any draft picks left to trade anyway. Even before losing this
Unfortunately for Snead, that appears to be changing. No year’s first-, second-, third-, and sixth-rounders in the Staf-
doubt inspired by the success Snead and the Rams have en- ford, Miller, and Michel acquisitions, L.A. gave their 2022
joyed, other teams have been more willing to make block- fourth-rounder to Houston in 2020 so they could draft Van
buster deals for veteran stars. That was especially true this Jefferson. They did pick up a seventh-rounder for shipping
year—Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill Aqib Talib to Miami back in 2019 and also added a bushel
would probably still be in Seattle, Green Bay, and Kansas City of compensatory picks, but all of that value adds up to noth-
ing more than a late second-rounder. With nothing better to
Table 1: First-Round Draft Picks do on the first night of the draft, Snead and McVay were left
entertaining reporters, giggling like they had opened a bottle
Traded by Season, 2013-2022 of champagne leftover from the Olympic Plaza and ripping
on the Patriots for reaching for a lineman they thought might
Year Picks Traded Total Trades For Vets Vets Involved have been available in the third round.
2013 11 12 2 2 Per Chase Stuart’s draft value chart at Football Perspective,
2014 9 11 1 1 the Rams had 11.4 points of draft capital this year, approxi-
2015 6 6 2 3 mately the same value as the 38th overall pick by itself. Only
2016 12 15 1 2 one team had less capital: the Miami Dolphins, who had 9.1
2017 12 14 2 2 points (about the worth of the 55th overall pick) after a se-
2018 16 20 2 2 ries of trades that netted them Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and
2019 12 14 4 7 Liam Eichenberg, but left them with no first-, second-, fifth,
2020 11 13 6 9 or sixth-round picks.
2021 10 14 4 8 You have to go back 33 years to find a team with so little
2022 18 27 9 14 draft capital as the Rams and Dolphins, and even that comes
Avg 11.7 14.6 3.3 5.0 with an asterisk. During the 1989 draft, the Los Angeles Raid-
148 LOS ANGELES RAMS

ers gave up a trio of picks for offensive lineman Steve Wis- shedding draft picks … and they made it work as Joe Gibbs
niewski, who had just been selected by the Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in that stretch. They are the excep-
and thus does not technically count as a Raiders draft pick. tion, however, as most of the other squads fell below .500 and
Before that, you have to go back to 1984 and—seriously—the struggled to win in the postseason. Outside of Washington,
Los Angeles Rams, who did not have a single pick in the first only one managed to win even three playoff games in the
four rounds after trading for All-Pro players at running back next five seasons: Allen’s division rivals in Philadelphia, who
(Eric Dickerson), cornerback (Gary Green), and kick returner reached the Super Bowl in 1980 after hiring Dick Vermeil and
(Ron Brown). using draft picks again. (The current Kansas City Chiefs will
For Miami, this was a one-year aberration; the Dolphins likely join them soon.)
were third in draft capital in 2021 and have already added To be fair to the Rams, they look a lot more like Gibbs’
extra first- and third-round picks in 2023. For the Rams, it was Washington teams than the Nick Saban Dolphins or the Jay
part of a long-term trend. In 2016, the year they traded up for Cutler Bears. But we’ll be telling a similar story about them
Goff, they ranked 11th in draft capital. They have made the in 2023—they have already surrendered their first-, fourth-,
bottom 10 every year since. and fifth-round picks next year. We must also remember that
The last time we saw a team throw away draft picks like this the goal in the NFL is to win games and championships, not
was the turn-of-the-century Buccaneers. In 2000, Tampa Bay to amass draft picks. Other teams low on the draft value lead-
traded two first-round selections to the Jets for veteran wide- erboard in the last six years include fellow playoff regulars in
out Keyshawn Johnson; in 2002, they traded two firsts and Kansas City, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh, and also the Bears.
two seconds to the Raiders for head coach Jon Gruden. The That’s a far better group than the teams at the other end of the
trades paid immediate dividends—with Johnson as his lead- spectrum: the Jaguars, Jets, Giants, and Browns. But L.A.’s
ing receiver, Gruden promptly turned Tony Dungy’s perennial consistent lack of impact draft picks has left them aging rap-
bridesmaids into Super Bowl champions. That success could idly, especially on offense. They had the youngest offense in
not be sustained, however. Gruden never won another playoff the league in 2016, the year before McVay arrived, but were
game in six more seasons in Tampa Bay, and the Bucs would fourth oldest in 2021. With so little youth in the pipeline and
go on to miss the playoffs for 12 years in a row until Tom so few picks this year, they have been unable to offset the
Brady showed up to win them a Super Bowl in 2020. talent drain that inevitably comes after a Super Bowl victory.
Tampa Bay’s trade for a coach instead of a player makes it And the talent drain is already having an effect. Between
difficult to compare them to other teams. If we set aside the retirement, trades, and free agency, the Rams lost two of their
Gruden-era Bucs, we find that the Rams’ draft capital is: top three wide receivers, their leading rusher, two starting of-
fensive linemen, their best edge rusher, their finest linebacker,
• The lowest two-year total since the 1994-1995 Broncos, two of their top three cornerbacks, and an All-Pro punter this
who traded for Gary Zimmerman and other vets (most of offseason. Incoming reinforcements are few and far between.
whom were not on the Super Bowl championship teams Offensive lineman Logan Bruss, the Rams’ first draft pick,
of 1997 and 1998). is expected to start right away, which is not something you
• The lowest three-year total since the 2002-2004 Dolphins, often say about the 104th player taken overall. A trio of vet-
who traded two first-round picks for Ricky Williams. erans—cornerback Troy Hill, wide receiver Allen Robinson,
• The lowest four-year total since the 1979-1982 Chargers, and linebacker Bobby Wagner—will also help, but each of
who traded for Wes Chandler, Chuck Muncie, and head
coach Don Coryell, among others. Table 2. Least Draft Capital,
Once you get to the five- and six-year marks, one franchise 6-Year Stretches, 1970-2022
begins to dominate the data. Only 14 teams since the AFL
merger in 1970 had less draft capital than this year’s Rams, Team Years Draft Capital W-L Next 5 Yrs Playoff Wins
but eight of those teams played in Washington from 1972 to WAS 1972-1977 35.4 41-37 0
1979. Historians will recognize this as the era of George Al- PHI 1974-1979 124.2 41-32 3
len’s Over the Hill Gang, as the team’s head coach/general LAR 2017-2022 164.3 -- --
manager had a notorious disdain for rookies. In those eight TB 1999-2004 165.8 38-42 0
seasons, Washington only made 12 picks in the first seven SD 1977-1982 174.6 31-42 1
rounds of the draft, including exactly zero first-, second-, or MIA 1999-2004 175.8 31-49 0
third-rounders. Allen made the playoffs in five of his first six WAS 1979-1984 184.2 51-28 5
seasons, but the lack of youth eventually caught up to him. NO 2009-2014 184.6 45-35 2
Washington missed the playoffs five years in a row before WAS 1985-1990 186.8 40-40 5
Bobby Beathard and Joe Gibbs won the Super Bowl in 1982. KC 2016-2021 187.2 12-5 2
Table 2 looks at the 12 teams with the least draft capital in WAS 2002-2007 187.9 32-48 0
a six-year span since 1970 (ignoring overlapping eras) and CHI 2009-2014 194.3 31-49 0
how they fared over the next half decade. As it turns out, even Avg 35.7-37.0 1.6
after Allen was gone, Washington spent the next decade-plus Does not include overlapping eras.
 LOS ANGELES RAMS 149

them looked somewhere between “lost a step” and “running that Los Angeles just won the Super Bowl with something of a
on fumes” in 2021. stars-and-scrubs model, and all the stars are still in town. They
Robinson is among those in the “fumes” category. Aside still have an effective (if erratic) mad bomber of a quarterback
from 2017, when he tore his ACL in Week 1, his 38 catches, and a record-setting receiver who was just named Offensive
410 yards, and solitary touchdown in 2021 were all the worst Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP. On defense, they
marks in his career. Obviously, he was in part a victim of the still have one of the NFL’s few true shutdown corners and the
general offensive disfunction in Chicago, but by DVOA he best interior lineman on the planet. And on the sidelines, they
was the worst of the Bears’ top four wideouts. However, the still have Sean McVay, who just won his seventh playoff game
one thing he could do is go deep—he led that quartet with a at age 36, an accomplishment Bill Belichick did not achieve
12.2-yard average depth of target. With Robinson and Jeffer- until he was 51 years old. So long as the Rams’ big names are
son (13.6-yard aDOT) clearing space for Kupp, the L.A. re- still healthy and productive, the rest of the roster is practically
ceiver corps still looks dangerous. The running game? That’s window dressing. And those big names aren’t going anywhere
a different story. Akers takes over at running back, where he for a while—after signing Ramsey through the 2025 season in
needs to show that his postseason struggles (2.6 yards per 2020, the Rams signed Stafford, Donald, and Kupp to long-
carry) were a product of not being fully healthy yet. Joe Note- term deals this offseason with a total of $260 million in guar-
boom steps in at left tackle, where he started nine games in anteed money. With the middle class evaporating in the NFC,
2020 without embarrassing himself, but he’s a clear down- they’re quite likely to return to the playoffs. They might need
grade from the retired Andrew Whitworth. to upset somebody like Tampa Bay to get back to the Super
The changes on defense bring more questions. Even at age Bowl, but hey, they did just that last year.
32, Wagner should be an upgrade at a position that L.A. has In some ways, the Rams are the perfect team for the social
long ignored. But Justin Hollins and Terrell Lewis, who will media age. From #AllIn to #FuckThemPicks to #RunItBack,
be competing to fill Von Miller’s spot, have fewer combined they have produced the first championship club in the history
sacks in their careers than Miller had in 2021 (counting the of sports composed mainly of hashtags. They’re designed to
playoffs). And while Hill is ready to start at nickel as young- produce retweetable highlights on both sides of the ball, and
sters David Long and Robert Rochell battle for the outside the window is still open for another viral moment or two this
spot opposite Ramsey, not one of these three corners looked season. They just have to play their cards right.
worthy of a starting role last year.
If that all sounds terribly pessimistic, we should point out Vincent Verhei

2021 Rams by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 CHI W 100% 34 14 386 322 2 52% 61% 10% 1% Total DVOA 10.6% 8 -8.5% 5
2 at IND W 97% 27 24 371 354 0 34% 23% -31% -20% Unadjusted VOA 11.5% 9 -4.8% 9
3 TB W 89% 34 24 407 446 0 59% 51% -3% 4% Weighted Trend 2.9% 14 -11.5% 6
4 ARI L 9% 20 37 401 465 -2 -11% 17% 22% -6% Variance 6.2% 11 3.3% 6
5 at SEA W 43% 26 17 476 354 1 6% 22% 4% -12% Average Opponent 0.4% 18 1.0% 11
6 at NYG W 100% 38 11 365 261 2 39% 5% -31% 3%
7 DET W 98% 28 19 374 415 2 22% 28% 6% 0% Passing 26.6% 7 -1.2% 6
8 at HOU W 99% 38 22 467 323 1 17% 29% 7% -5% Rushing -3.9% 12 -18.1% 5
9 TEN L 36% 16 28 347 194 -1 -3% -29% -22% 4%
First Down 10.6% 7 -14.2% 2
10 at SF L 1% 10 31 278 335 -2 -41% -32% 9% 0%
Second Down 11.8% 10 -4.0% 13
11 BYE
Third Down 8.7% 13 -5.2% 11
12 at GB L 24% 28 36 353 399 -2 8% -8% -10% 6%
13 JAX W 100% 37 7 418 197 2 62% 6% -44% 12% First Half 2.4% 12 -20.0% 2
14 at ARI W 96% 30 23 356 447 2 54% 24% -25% 5% Second Half 19.4% 4 2.5% 17
15 SEA W 67% 20 10 332 214 0 31% 7% -18% 7%
16 at MIN W 92% 30 23 356 361 -2 33% -17% -18% 31% Red Zone 7.6% 11 -27.1% 2
17 at BAL W 92% 20 19 373 327 -1 21% 12% -8% 1% Late and Close 46.0% 1 -17.0% 3
18 SF L 12% 24 27 265 449 0 7% 1% 5% 12%
19 ARI W 100% 34 11 375 183 2 104% 28% -61% 16%
20 at TB W 98% 30 27 428 359 -2 62% 16% -37% 9%
21 SF W 25% 20 17 396 282 0 24% 8% -17% -1%
22 CIN W 62% 23 20 313 305 -2 0% -9% -15% -6%
150 LOS ANGELES RAMS

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 11-5 11.6 11.3 478 329 +7 27.6% 3 11.3% 6 -9.5% 7 6.8% 2 3.3 1 27.4 12 26.0 31 26.0 19 25.0 31
2018 13-3 11.2 12.5 527 384 +11 23.9% 3 25.0% 2 1.0% 16 -0.2% 17 11.0 2 27.0 13 27.1 12 26.5 11 25.8 15
2019 9-7 8.8 9.1 394 364 0 5.3% 12 0.6% 16 -6.1% 9 -1.5% 23 29.8 9 30.8 16 26.3 24 26.8 8 25.4 25
2020 10-6 10.2 9.9 372 296 -3 15.4% 9 4.4% 10 -17.0% 4 -6.0% 30 17.3 4 28.3 9 26.6 19 26.1 20 24.9 32
2021 12-5 10.7 13.4 460 372 +2 21.6% 5 10.6% 8 -8.5% 5 2.5% 4 30.3 6 24.0 6 28.2 4 26.1 20 25.1 31

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

LAR Offense LAR Offense vs. Opponents LAR Defense LAR Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 85% 6.6 21.8% 33% Base 13% 3.6 -42.4% 65% Base 19% 4.1 -28.8% 11 61% 5.7 -0.7%
12 9% 3.7 -26.4% 67% Nickel 78% 6.6 27.8% 36% Nickel 54% 5.1 -5.3% 12 17% 4.5 -27.7%
612 2% 5.5 -1.4% 91% Dime+ 9% 6.1 -40.4% 12% Dime+ 26% 6.6 0.2% 21 8% 5.2 -19.8%
10 2% 2.3 -35.6% 14% Goal Line 0% 1.5 36.0% 25% Goal Line 0% 1.0 13.1% 10 4% 7.5 25.2%
711 1% 1.3 -14.8% 88% Big 1% 6.2 19.8% 67% 13 4% 3.2 -46.6%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 35% 25 Form: Single Back 80% 22 Rush 3 4.1% 19 4 DB 19% 26 Play Action 25% 23
Runs, first down 47% 20 Form: Empty Back 17% 1 Rush 4 69.2% 20 5 DB 54% 25 Offensive Motion 43% 18
Runs, second-long 23% 25 Form: Multi Back 3% 28 Rush 5 25.4% 5 6+ DB 26% 3 Avg Box (Off) 6.35 26
Runs, power sit. 55% 20 Pers: 3+ WR 87% 1 Rush 6+ 1.3% 32 Man Coverage 15% 31 Avg Box (Def) 5.96 32
Runs, behind 2H 23% 30 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 13% 32 Edge Rusher Sacks 39.0% 28 CB by Sides 54% 31 Offensive Pace 29.27 4
Pass, ahead 2H 47% 16 Pers: 6+ OL 3% 13 Interior DL Sacks 44.0% 5 S/CB Cover Ratio 25% 19 Defensive Pace 32.19 30
Run-Pass Options 10% 14 Shotgun/Pistol 59% 26 Second Level Sacks 17.0% 16 DB Blitz 5% 29 Go for it on 4th 0.83 28

You used to know that Los Angeles would always pass when the quarterback dropped into shotgun, but the Rams switched
it up a bit last season. They ran on 15% of their shotgun plays, a big jump from the single-digit percentages of 2018-2020. 🏈
For the first time in McVay’s tenure with the team, the Rams used six offensive linemen. In fact, they did it on 36 different
plays. But they weren’t very good on these plays, with 3.8 average yards and -22.1% DVOA. 🏈 Cam Akers was supposed
to bring back passes to running backs in the Rams offense. Then he got hurt, so once again the Rams were at the bottom of the
league in percentage of targets that went to running backs. Will Akers finally change this in 2022? 🏈 The Rams were just
21st in offensive DVOA on third and fourth down with 1 to 6 yards to go, then improved to third with 7 or more yards to go. 🏈
Matthew Stafford was blitzed only 20% of the time, less than any other quarterback except Patrick Mahomes. As noted earlier
in the chapter, he beat blitzes for a league-best 67.2% DVOA with 7.6 yards per play and 19 touchdowns (two scrambling) with
just one interception. 🏈 It was only 13% of their plays, but the Rams were the worst offense in the league when opponents
had base defensive personnel on the field (-42.4% DVOA, 3.6 yards per play). 🏈 It’s surprising because they are not known
for the strength of their off-ball linebackers, but the Rams actually led the NFL with the best defensive DVOA (-28.8%) and
fewest yards allowed per play (4.1) with base defensive personnel. 🏈 The Rams rarely blitzed a defensive back, and that’s
good because they allowed a league-worst 53.8% DVOA and 8.3 yards per play when they did. 🏈 A bit unexpected for a
team considered to have a strong secondary, Los Angeles had the league’s largest gap in DVOA between defense with pass pres-
sure (-102.9% DVOA, third) and defense without pressure (40.8%, 24th). 🏈 Need more evidence that time of possession is
overrated? The Super Bowl champions ranked 26th with an average of 28:54 TOP during the regular season. The year before,
the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers ranked 24th. 🏈 Fun with random performance: Los Angeles had only three fumbles
lost on offense during the regular season, then had four fumbles lost on offense in the playoff game against Tampa Bay alone.
 LOS ANGELES RAMS 151

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
M.Stafford 1100 14.6% 631 4643 7.4 5.3 67.2% 41 17 C.Kupp 618 27.6% 191 145 1947 13.4 5.8 16 76%
V.Jefferson 84 -1.1% 89 50 802 16.0 4.4 6 56%
R.Woods* 139 12.7% 69 45 556 12.4 4.4 4 65%
Rushing O.Beckham* 27 -5.7% 48 27 305 11.3 3.8 5 56%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc B.Skowronek -9 -18.7% 20 11 133 12.1 4.8 0 55%
S.Michel* 83 0.6% 208 845 4.1 4 1 54% D.Jackson* 40 21.4% 15 8 221 27.6 13.0 1 53%
D.Henderson 122 10.1% 149 688 4.6 5 0 58% A.Robinson 19 -9.2% 66 38 410 10.8 2.4 1 58%
M.Stafford -4 -15.8% 16 61 3.8 0 1 - T.Higbee 58 2.5% 85 61 560 9.2 4.5 5 72%
R.Woods* 34 56.8% 8 46 5.8 1 0 - K.Blanton -28 -70.9% 7 4 37 9.3 3.3 0 57%
C.Akers -8 -51.0% 5 3 0.6 0 0 0% D.Henderson -40 -30.6% 40 29 176 6.1 6.2 3 73%
B.Howell* -10 -75.9% 5 11 2.2 0 0 20% S.Michel* -27 -27.8% 33 21 128 6.1 6.3 1 64%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
David Edwards LG 25 17/17 1085 4 3.5 13 4 Brian Allen C 27 16/16 903 4 3.0 9 17
Austin Corbett* RG 27 17/17 1080 2 1.5 16 12 Coleman Shelton C/LG 27 17/2 215 0 0.0 1 2
Rob Havenstein RT 30 15/15 956 3 5.0 18 5 Joseph Noteboom LT/RT 27 15/2 173 0 1.0 1 2
Andrew Whitworth* LT 41 15/15 926 6 4.0 7 4

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.80 4.27 19 65% 18 21% 26 1.23 14 0.44 29 14.1% 30 22 3.7% 1 31.5% 22 13.0% 14 30
2020 4.34 4.66 7 69% 12 19% 30 1.18 17 0.78 15 8.3% 10 25 4.2% 2 24.4% 13 9.6% 5 36
2021 4.20 4.62 6 54% 29 18% 21 1.25 9 0.47 24 12.5% 24 31 5.2% 7 18.4% 3 10.8% 5 32
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.14 (5) Left Tackle: 4.33 (15) Mid/Guard: 4.36 (11) Right Tackle: 4.49 (10) Right End: 6.91 (1)

Andrew Whitworth retires with 235 NFL starts, four Pro Bowl honors, three All-Pro selections, two Super Bowl appearances,
and one championship ring. By Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value, he is one of the top 20 offensive linemen of all
time, with the highest total of any lineman who was active in 2021. Let the Hall of Fame debating commence! 🏈 Whitworth
leaves at the top of his game, finishing second among left tackles in rate of snaps per blown block for the third consecutive
year. His replacement, Joe Noteboom, ranked 19th in that category when he started nine games at left tackle in 2020—no Pro
Bowler, but an adequate starter. He started at both left and right tackle last year and has also started at guard in his career, so he
has been battle-tested to a degree. 🏈 The other new starter is likely to be Logan Bruss, the third-round draftee out of Wis-
consin, replacing free-agent departure Austin Corbett at right guard. Bruss is powerful and athletic, and he can fill in at tackle
in a pinch, but he’ll need to improve his hand work to reach his potential in the NFL. Bobby Evans, his top competitor this
season, started seven games for L.A. as a rookie in 2019, but only one game since. 🏈 David Edwards and Rob Havenstein
will return at left guard and right tackle, respectively. Unfortunately for L.A., center Brian Allen—clearly the worst starter on
the Rams offense—also returns. Only Chicago’s Sam Mustipher blew more run blocks last season. Allen ranked 35th among
centers in snaps per blown block, a worrying stat when there are theoretically only 32 starting centers in the league. He was 28th
in the same category when he started nine games in 2019; in between, he was a healthy inactive for most of the 2020 season,
failing to play in a single game.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Aaron Donald 31 DE 17 1041 88 9.5% 4 72 34 6 65 75% 24 1.5 6 12.5 11 47 3
Greg Gaines 26 DT 17 780 55 5.9% 38 40 15 3 47 70% 47 2.1 26 4.5 6 22 0
A'Shawn Robinson 27 DE 17 516 67 7.2% 15 47 6 5 63 71% 42 2.4 36 2.0 0 8 1
Sebastian Joseph-Day* 27 DT 7 341 38 10.0% 3 26 5 2 32 72% 40 2.7 57 3.0 2 7 0
152 LOS ANGELES RAMS
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Leonard Floyd 30 OLB 17 932 73 7.9% 10 51 22 12 48 67% 70 3.6 82 9.5 6 42 1
Von Miller* 33 OLB 15 764 51 6.2% 29 45 25 3 31 87% 9 0.9 5 9.5 8 30 0
Terrell Lewis 24 OLB 11 367 23 3.8% 75 13 5 2 13 62% 79 4.0 90 3.0 1 15 1
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo* 27 OLB 13 255 15 2.1% -- 14 6 4 9 100% -- 0.9 -- 2.0 3 5 0
Justin Hollins 26 OLB 8 223 22 5.0% 52 17 5 0 15 80% 15 2.6 51 2.0 0 1 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Troy Reeder* 28 ILB 17 681 96 10.4% 57 47 13 15 53 58% 39 3.1 14 2.0 2 7 33 42% 53 6.2 37 6 2
Ernest Jones 23 ILB 15 440 62 7.6% 76 35 14 7 24 71% 6 3.8 40 1.0 1 5 21 57% 20 4.8 11 4 2
Travin Howard* 26 ILB 12 101 20 3.1% -- 10 4 2 12 50% -- 4.1 -- 0.0 0 1 4 50% -- 4.0 -- 3 1
Bobby Wagner 32 MLB 16 1128 175 18.7% 7 75 21 9 102 50% 62 3.8 41 1.0 2 7 47 47% 43 6.1 34 5 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.16 4.26 16 62% 12 16% 24 1.18 18 0.61 10 14.8% 10 50 8.1% 7 32.7% 8 15.7% 11
2020 3.78 4.34 15 68% 20 14% 23 0.96 2 0.29 1 9.6% 27 53 8.6% 2 30.2% 2 17.3% 2
2021 3.78 3.84 6 70% 19 18% 11 1.01 5 0.55 12 16.5% 6 50 7.6% 8 29.0% 3 16.8% 7
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 2.43 (1) Left Tackle: 4.54 (20) Mid/Guard: 4.05 (13) Right Tackle: 3.47 (4) Right End: 2.10 (2)

Aaron Donald is an eight-time Pro Bowler, seven-time All-Pro, and three-time Defensive Player of the Year … yet when you binge-
watch Rams games, you get the feeling that he is severely underrated. He led all interior linemen in defeats for the fourth straight
season and has finished first or second every year since 2015. And actually watching him play—throwing 220-pound James Robinson
to the ground with one hand while ripping the ball free with the other; launching Max Garcia back with such ferocity that he in turn
knocks over Kyler Murray; occupying three blockers on a stunt to clear the way for an A’Shawn Robinson sack against Baltimore—is
jaw-dropping. He was second in the league with 47 hurries in the regular season and added five more in the playoffs, when he ha-
rassed both Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Burrow into game-ending mistakes. No NFL player of this era has done their job better than
Donald has done his. 🏈 You could surround Donald with a half-dozen washouts and just-a-guys and field a reasonable defensive
front, and on paper that’s almost what the Rams did last year. Von Miller was an obvious exception, but Robinson and Leonard Floyd
are only in Los Angeles because they were disappointments in Detroit and Chicago. Ernest Jones was a third-round draftee, Greg
Gaines a fourth, Sebastian Joseph-Day a sixth, and Troy Reeder undrafted. Full credit to the Rams scouts and coaches for finding so
much overlooked talent and developing so many quality players. 🏈 The Rams used a lot of four-man fronts in 2021, though that
may change without Joseph-Day. Michael Hoecht had three starts and 110 defensive snaps in 2021, making him the most experienced
backup lineman on the roster. 🏈 Terrell Lewis is the favorite to start at edge rusher opposite Floyd. A third-round draftee out of
Alabama, Lewis has 5.0 sacks in 19 career games (including four starts). He was on the field for most of L.A.’s defensive snaps in the
middle of last year before a back injury ended his season. The other candidate is Justin Hollins, a fifth-round draftee in Denver in 2019
who was waived and picked up by L.A. in 2020. He has 6.0 sacks in 39 games and was a starter last year before injuries and Miller’s
arrival relegated him to backup status. 🏈 Even at age 32, Bobby Wagner should be the best off-ball linebacker the team has seen
in years. He had 21 defeats last season, a total no Rams linebacker has matched since Cory Littleton in 2018. Jones, the rookie, played
nearly 90% of his defensive snaps after Week 7. He missed the first two playoff games with an ankle injury, but returned to terrorize
Cincinnati in the Super Bowl, finishing with seven tackles, three quarterback hits, two tackles for loss, and a pass defensed.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Taylor Rapp 25 SS 17 1114 97 10.5% 37 31 16 9 39 31% 47 7.5 42 34 8.0% 41 11.2 44% 59 9.4 60 6 4
Jalen Ramsey 28 CB 16 1037 93 10.7% 16 45 23 7 22 64% 5 2.8 2 68 17.3% 66 11.0 57% 25 4.9 3 16 4
Jordan Fuller 24 FS 16 1029 117 13.4% 11 34 11 10 50 34% 40 7.1 39 30 7.7% 46 11.2 60% 22 7.3 40 4 1
Darious Williams* 29 CB 14 925 80 10.5% 18 22 5 8 17 24% 70 7.3 60 73 20.8% 31 11.3 52% 50 6.4 26 9 0
David Long 24 CB 16 516 44 5.0% -- 8 4 5 11 18% -- 8.6 -- 34 17.4% -- 12.4 47% -- 8.5 -- 4 1
Donte Deayon* 28 CB 10 461 31 5.7% -- 15 8 5 5 40% -- 4.0 -- 41 23.5% -- 12.3 56% -- 8.8 -- 2 0
Nick Scott 27 FS 17 413 45 4.9% -- 10 5 10 10 20% -- 8.3 -- 12 7.7% -- 14.8 42% -- 12.8 -- 4 2
Robert Rochell 24 CB 11 234 18 3.0% -- 5 3 4 4 25% -- 20.0 -- 20 22.5% -- 10.1 40% -- 8.3 -- 4 1
Troy Hill 31 CB 12 533 50 8.4% -- 32 16 7 22 77% -- 3.1 -- 33 17.1% -- 10.8 48% -- 9.4 -- 1 0
 LOS ANGELES RAMS 153
Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 10 -18.0% 4 -5.9% 9 -2.6% 16 -22.3% 7 6.4% 17 6.6% 21 9.3% 22
2020 4 -4.6% 13 -33.5% 1 -1.8% 14 -33.0% 1 -11.0% 4 -11.1% 10 -10.9% 7
2021 6 -1.1% 16 -0.1% 16 -0.7% 17 -13.0% 9 11.7% 22 -22.7% 4 2.3% 24

Pay no heed to Jalen Ramsey’s underwhelming success rate. Focus instead on that low target rate and third-place finish in
yards allowed per target, which tell a more accurate tale of his place in the NFL’s cornerback hierarchy. Ramsey was stellar
against the run, too, leading all corners with nine rushing defeats. He gave up over 100 yards against both the Buccaneers and
Bengals in the playoffs (the latter due largely to a 75-yard touchdown where the refs missed Tee Higgins yanking Ramsey down
by the facemask), but there’s a reason he has been first-team All-Pro two years running. 🏈 Troy Hill had several good sea-
sons for L.A. before spending a year in Cleveland, where he looked like toast. A large chunk of his defeats last season came as a
blitzer: he sacked Joe Burrow twice in Week 9 and had four tackles for loss against the Ravens in Week 14. 🏈 David Long
and Robert Rochell are the same age, but Long has been in the NFL for two more seasons, which might give him an edge for
the starting outside spot opposite Ramsey. Long was a 2019 third-round draftee out of Michigan, Rochell a 2021 fourth-rounder
from Central Arkansas. 🏈 Neither Hill, Long, nor Rochell qualified for our cornerback coverage statistics. If they had, none
would have ranked higher than 60th in either success rate or yards allowed per target. 🏈 Safeties Taylor Rapp and Jordan
Fuller were both below average in stop rate, but Raheem Morris uses his safeties in a traditional sense, asking them to do dam-
age control more than anything else, and Fuller and Rapp were effective at that task. The Rams were third in DVOA against
deep passes and 12th in open-field yards allowed on running plays. 🏈 When injuries struck in the playoffs, Nick Scott and
Eric Weddle filled in admirably. Scott played every defensive snap of the postseason, including an interception of Tom Brady;
Weddle, who had not played since December of 2019, played every defensive snap of the NFC Championship Game and Super
Bowl. Scott returns, but Weddle has made it clear that his second retirement will be permanent. He came out of the Super Bowl
with a championship ring and a torn pec, both of which probably played a role in that decision.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -1.5% 23 -2.9 21 -4.3 27 -1.3 18 2.2 15 -1.0 16 -6.4 27
2020 -6.0% 30 -7.5 27 -5.9 28 -2.7 21 -5.4 25 -8.3 31 -11.0 29
2021 2.5% 4 9.7 3 -0.1 18 -4.1 26 1.7 16 6.2 3 -16.8 31

The Rams rank uncharacteristically high here thanks mostly to two men: placekicker Matt Gay and returner Brandon Powell.
🏈 In his first full campaign with the Rams, Gay missed only three kicks in the regular season: 46- and 56-yard field goal at-
tempts against Arizona and Baltimore and an extra point try against Seattle. He had two more missed field goal attempts in the
playoffs—a 47-yarder against Tampa Bay and a 54-yarder against San Francisco—showing how even the best kickers can be
shaky on a couple of long attempts. 🏈 Powell joined L.A.’s practice squad in November and the active roster in December,
then returned the opening kickoff of his first game with the Rams 65 yards to set up a field goal. He was even better on punts,
finishing second in overall value on only six returns. That includes a 31-yarder against the 49ers and a 61-yard touchdown in
a 30-23 win over the Vikings, making Powell the only player in the league with multiple 30-plus-yard punt returns. Between
punts and kickoffs, Powell’s returns were worth 10.1 points in field position; the other seven Rams players who tried returning
kicks were worth -8.0 points. Powell wasn’t much of a factor in the playoffs, and he will compete with 2021 second-round pick
Tutu Atwell for return duties this fall. 🏈 Powell was part of an overall turnaround for the Rams’ special teams after the
Week 10 bye. From Week 11 onwards, the Rams ranked fourth in value on both net punts and net kickoffs. However, L.A.’s
coverage teams were generally irrelevant—they saw only 39 combined punt and kickoff returns all season, fewer than anyone
except Denver. 🏈 Johnny Hekker was his usual reliable self, pinning 23 punts inside the 20 with only one touchback, but he
signed with the Panthers in free agency. Riley Dixon, who has been boringly average in four years with the Giants, will battle
undrafted free agent Cameron Dicker for the job. Dicker only punted for one year at Texas, finishing third in the Big 12 with a
46.8-yard average, but he hit 60-of-79 field goals for the Longhorns and can also kick off. That could be useful since Gay put
a league-high four kickoffs out of bounds last season, including two in one game against Seattle.
 Miami Dolphins
2021 record: 9-8 Total DVOA: -10.9% (25) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.2 wins On the Clock (0-5): 16%
Pythagorean Wins: 7.6 (21) Offense: -10.8% (24) Postseason Odds: 37.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 39%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.0 (24) Defense: -2.9% (10) Super Bowl Odds: 4.2% Playoff Contender (9-11): 34%
Average Opponent: -2.5% (27) Special Teams: -2.9% (29) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 2.2% (2) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 11%

2021: Enough drama in owner, coach, and quarterback for an NBA team.

2022: McDaniel’s scheme can help stars and help find stars, Tagovailoa included.

“N ot two. Not three. Not four. Not five. Not six. Not seven.”
—LeBron James at the LeBron James-
Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh “Heatles” pep rally
The broad strokes of the “fish tank” made sense. Trading
veterans for draft picks allowed the Dolphins to lose in the
short term, improve the draft position of their own picks, and
flood their roster with premium prospects and lottery tickets.
Since Stephen Ross became the majority owner in 2009, And even with their apparent misses on top picks such as Aus-
the Dolphins have jumped from one fad to the next. In 2012 tin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, and possibly Tua Tagovailoa,
and 2016, they hired quarterback whisperers Joe Philbin and the Dolphins have cultivated a core of young talent that teams
Adam Gase fresh off their coordinator roles with Aaron Rodg- with just their given draft capital would be hard-pressed to
ers and Peyton Manning, respectively. In 2019, they followed duplicate. Talent like Robert Hunt, whose 1.6% blown pass
the Sixers’ example of a total teardown with the “fish tank.” block rate was top-20 among regular guards in 2021. Like
And this offseason, they mirrored the Rams’ stockpiling of Jaylen Waddle, whose 146 DYAR ranked fourth among rookie
blue-chip players with their additions of Tyreek Hill and Ter- receivers. Like Jaelan Phillips, whose 8.5 sacks were second
ron Armstead. among rookie pass-rushers. And like Jevon Holland, whose
At first blush, the quick pivots suggest a lack of focus and 10 passes defensed were tied for fourth among all safeties.
may offer a more innocent explanation for the wrongful termi- But if Flores’ claims are true, then Ross and Grier focused too
nation that former head coach Brian Flores asserts in his class- much on the search for stars and too little on the development of
action lawsuit against the NFL, the Dolphins, and a series of stars demanded by a draft-oriented approach to team-building.
other teams. Three years into his coaching tenure, Flores was A front office can tank. It sees a bigger picture and can decide if
no longer a shiny new toy. But the timeline of Ross’ purchase of a short-term step back will allow for two future steps forward.
the Dolphins implies a different and local source of team-build- But it cannot ask a coach to tank. His responsibility is to put his
ing inspiration that connects the seemingly disparate recent eras players in the best positions to help the team, and those efforts
of the franchise and explains their lack of success to date. do as much to develop those players and increase their value as
Ross was just a year into his majority ownership when LeB- they do to win games. In reportedly offering Flores $100,000
ron James brought his talents to South Beach and kicked off per loss in 2019, Ross undermined the future success of the
the modern era of star obsession in sports. James, Dwyane Dolphins in his attempt to promote them.
Wade, and Chris Bosh weren’t natural fits. James and Wade With an apparent tunnel vision for a No. 1 draft pick—and
both preferred to have the ball, and Bosh preferred to play after he lost that, for a “prominent quarterback” that the Palm
in the post where his 6-foot-11 frame earned him easy points Beach Post’s Joe Schad reported was Tom Brady—Ross over-
on offensive rebound put-backs and free throws. The Heat’s looked the potential star he already had in Flores. Flores made
four trips to the finals in four years and pair of titles taught a a less-than-compelling case for that status in his lawsuit, cit-
lesson that talent was more important than team, a lesson that ing an arbitrary statistic that he had led the Dolphins to their
recent basketball history has only just started to question with first back-to-back winning seasons since 2003, a statistic that
a realization that Bosh’s “sacrifice” to play on the perimeter falls flatter with the extra context that the 2020 Dolphins end-
promoted spacing, the heart of most offensive schemes a de- ed 16.0% of their opponents’ drives in turnovers—the high-
cade later. est rate in football—and that they had the NFL’s sixth-easiest
There is little doubt the “Heatles” offered an alluring tem- schedule each of the last two seasons. The Dolphins needed
plate for Ross, who quickly demonstrated his interest in celeb- luck to win their 10 and nine games those seasons. But Flores
rity when he brought in Serena Williams, Marc Anthony, and had an unstated but better case for his coaching ability in the
Gloria Estefan as minority owners. But stars are much harder success he had relative to the expectations of his roster. He
to add to a roster than to an owner’s box. So after Philbin and won 3.1 more games than Football Outsiders projected over
Gase failed to turn Ryan Tannehill into another Rodgers or the last three seasons (Table 1). That is a top-10 surplus that
Manning, Ross and his general manager Chris Grier pushed places Flores among many of the perceived best coaches such
the boundaries of their star search. as Andy Reid, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan. And it is a
154
 MIAMI DOLPHINS 155

2021 MIA DVOA by Week

2022 Dolphins Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 NE 7 PIT 13 at SF
2 at BAL 8 at DET 14 at LAC 40%
3 BUF 9 at CHI 15 at BUF 20%
4 at CIN (Thu.) 10 CLE 16 GB (Xmas)
0%
5 at NYJ 11 BYE 17 at NE
6 MIN 12 HOU 18 NYJ -20%

-40%

-60%

more rigorous measure of success, accounting for projected -80%

schedule strengths and combating small-sample noise with its -100%

three-year time period.

Table 1: Most Wins Over Football Ross and Grier weren’t wrong for wanting Brady and Pay-
Outsiders Projections, 2019-2021 ton, the most accomplished quarterback and one of the most
accomplished coaches in the history of the sport. But the for-
Team Proj Wins Wins Dif mer duo’s pursuit of those stars seemed to follow their previ-
GB 26.5 39 12.5 ous patterns of at best unfair and at worst unethical behav-
BUF 25.7 34 8.3 ior that appeared to be wrongdoing even if it wasn’t. Flores
KC 31.0 38 7.0 certainly took it as wrongdoing, and he probably sees karma
TEN 25.1 32 6.9 in the timing of his February 1 lawsuit filing just hours after
NO 29.5 34 4.5 Brady announced his retirement but before the Dolphins had
BAL 28.5 33 4.5 consummated any of their plans for him or Payton. The Dol-
TB 26.9 31 4.1 phins would have looked even worse for hiring a white team
LAR 27.4 31 3.6 president and a white head coach without consideration of the
MIA 20.9 24 3.1 Rooney Rule after Flores’ accusation of racial discrimination.
SF 25.9 29 3.1 Ross and Grier did not abandon their maybe misguided star
Projected wins are from final preseason updates hunt in hiring their second choice for a new head coach in
Mike McDaniel. McDaniel may not be Payton, but he is next
Ross and Grier may have been justified in their decision to in line for the wunderkind treatment. McDaniel was part of the
fire Flores. ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques reported that Flores now infamous 2012 Washington coaching staff that produced
stopped communicating with his staff around Thanksgiving Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and Matt LaFleur. McDaniel
of 2021, and the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reported that coordinated Shanahan’s run game and more recently his of-
Tagovailoa resented how Flores talked to people, a resentment fense in San Francisco that many consider the most innova-
that appeared to boil over when the two yelled at each other tive in football. And McDaniel has the quirky background and
on the sidelines of the 34-3 loss to the Titans in Week 17 that characteristics that media members are sure to latch onto. He
eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention. The writ- is 38 years old. He has a history degree from Yale. He wears
ing may have been on the wall for his eventual firing as he matching gray sweatshirts and sweatpants with yellow Yeezy
asserted in the lawsuit, but Flores gave the Dolphins a reason sneakers. He loves sushi. And he rewards his best practice
to fire him when he compromised the principles of competi- players with an orange jersey and DJ rights to pick music for
tiveness and fairness he implied he stood for in his refusals to the next day’s practice.
tank and tamper. For Tagovailoa and his teammates, McDaniel’s player-
But Ross and Grier do not appear to have learned from their friendly approach may seem refreshing after a few years with
mistakes with Flores, because their actions since his firing a disciplinarian like Flores. But teams have yo-yoed between
evoke their previous star obsession. As former Patriots player personalities in their coaching hires for decades and seen
and current FOX Sports radio host Rich Ohrnberger, Pro Foot- mixed results. If the Dolphins want to finally turn a corner,
ball Talk’s Mike Florio, and the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin re- they’ll need more than fun practices and headlines. It’s ironic
ported in various pieces, the Dolphins brain trust schemed to then that their second choice at head coach, and one whose
add Brady as a team president and minority owner, positions candidacy may have had more to do with his star power (and,
Brady could leverage to try to force a trade from the Buc- for cynics, his biracial heritage) than his suitability, should
caneers so he could unretire and quarterback the Dolphins. bring the perfect plan to develop the quarterback the team has
And Ross and Grier also aimed to replace Flores with Sean appeared eager to replace.
Payton, a coaching star whom Brady knew because of a com- Tagovailoa has had an encouraging beginning to his ca-
mon agent. reer by many traditional measures like his 13-8 record as a
156 MIAMI DOLPHINS

starter, his 27-15 touchdown-interception ratio, and his 66.2% motion, and pulls. And while Chase Edmonds and Raheem
completion rate that ranks 17th among regular starters the last Mostert are hardly star additions at running back, their speed
two seasons. Tagovailoa has even encouraged with his passing unlocks the outside zone runs that Miami’s prior backfield ro-
DVOA, which at -8.5% and -0.7% his first two years has him tation of Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, and Salvon Ahmed
on a similar early-career trajectory to desirable recent com- couldn’t have handled. The Dolphins had just 52 carries reach
parisons such as Joe Burrow (-7.3% and 5.1%), Kyler Murray 15 mph in 2021, the fewest in football per Next Gen Stats.
(-3.1% and 4.6%), and Andrew Luck (-5.1% and 4.6%). But Edmonds led regular backs hitting 15 mph on 23.3% of
But Tagovailoa has also played a hyper-conservative style his carries. And Mostert, Hill, and Jaylen Waddle all authored
of quarterback. His team’s 13.0% rate of run-pass options per a play with a top-10 ballcarrier speed in the last two seasons.
pass attempt was the highest in football in 2021, and his 7.1- We have a more modest projection that boosts Miami from
yard average depth of target (aDOT) ranked 32nd among the 24th in offensive DVOA last season to slightly above average
34 quarterbacks with 200 or more pass attempts. That style this season. But like the 2019 49ers, the Dolphins could plau-
highlighted Tagovailoa’s ability to make quick decisions and sibly jump from bottom-10 to top-10 in offensive efficiency
accurate short throws, but it also raised questions of how much with better players, a better scheme, and a better fit between
his coaches trusted him and if he could succeed without a gim- the two. Unexpectedly for a team that finished top-12 in de-
micky offense. The Dolphins averaged just 4.9 yards on their fensive DVOA the last two seasons, the bigger questions will
non-RPO plays, the second lowest in the league last season. be on defense. McDaniel retained Flores’ defensive coordina-
The uncertainty comes from context. The Dolphins had tor Josh Boyer, and his unit retained the bulk of the talent that
a 47% Pass Block Win Rate in 2021 that was the worst in spurred its recent success. But with his defensive background,
football per ESPN. So were Tagovailoa’s low 2.52-second Flores may have played an outsized role in the defense’s im-
average time to throw and 7.1-yard aDOT evidence that he provements. And those improvements may have been over-
couldn’t throw downfield? Or were they an artifact of a smart stated in DVOA in 2021 thanks to an outlier Week 16 perfor-
strategy to avoid hits and negative plays? The Dolphins’ 6.9% mance (-70.3% DVOA) when Miami played the Saints and
adjusted sack rate was middle-of-the-pack at 19th, much bet- fourth-string quarterback Ian Book. Remove that one game
ter than one would expect behind so porous an offensive line. and last year’s Miami defense drops from 10th in DVOA to
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa completed 50.0% of his deep attempts 17th. The Dolphins are unlikely to catch a break that good in
thrown 20 or more yards down the field, the highest rate 2022. In fact, they are projected to face the second-hardest
among regular passers. But he also threw deep on just 7.2% schedule by DVOA.
and saw man coverage on 36.3% of his attempts, second low- In short, the Dolphins may need more time to become a con-
est and second highest at his position, respectively. So was his tender. That may frustrate Ross and Grier after their repeated
accuracy evidence that Tagovailoa is a capable deep passer? attempts to find a quick fix through adding stars. But even the
Or did the infrequency of his downfield attempts and the va- “Heatles” showed that you need more than talent to win five,
nilla coverages teams used to defend him suggest Tagovailoa six, or seven titles. To make their own run of sustained suc-
is a small-sample beneficiary whose true talent level makes cess, the Dolphins will need to support their star search with
him a lesser deep passer? development. And even as a second choice, McDaniel looks
McDaniel should help Tagovailoa answer those questions in like the perfect coach to make that happen.
2022. He may not hand the keys to his offense to Tagovailoa
and ask him to be Aaron Rodgers. But with the wide zone Scott Spratt
scheme that he learned from and refined with Kyle Shanahan
in San Francisco, McDaniel can make life easier on his quar- Table 2: Garoppolo vs.
terback with a run game that stretches the field horizontally
and spreads out defenders. That scheme spurred 49ers’ quar- Tagovailoa, 2021
terback Jimmy Garoppolo to the No. 1 average of 6.9 yards
after the catch in 2021. Tagovailoa finished bottom-six with Stat Garoppolo Tagovailoa
4.8 average yards after the catch. And that YAC difference Comp% 68.3% (6th) 67.8% (7th)
was the only marked difference between Tagovailoa’s résumé aDOT 7.7 (24th) 7.1 (32nd)
and Garoppolo’s, which named him a top-five quarterback in Time to Throw 2.67 (6th) 2.52 (3rd)
passing efficiency (Table 2). YPA 8.6 (2nd) 6.8 (23rd)
Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead would be stars in any YAC 6.9 (1st) 4.8 (29th)
offense. But their exceptional speed should add extra value DVOA 17.9% (5th) -0.7% (18th)
in a scheme that features receiver runs, jet sweeps, pre-snap Time to Throw from NFL Next Gen Stats
 MIAMI DOLPHINS 157

2021 Dolphins by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at NE W 69% 17 16 259 393 1 40% 22% -16% 2% Total DVOA -10.8% 24 -2.9% 10
2 BUF L 1% 0 35 216 314 -1 -35% -46% -18% -7% Unadjusted VOA -11.8% 25 -5.0% 8
3 at LV L 16% 28 31 330 497 1 -20% -21% -4% -3% Weighted Trend -8.4% 22 -5.6% 10
4 IND L 4% 17 27 203 349 -1 -17% -9% 4% -4% Variance 4.6% 4 9.1% 27
5 at TB L 0% 17 45 301 558 -2 -46% 5% 50% -1% Average Opponent -1.1% 12 -3.9% 30
6 at JAX L 19% 20 23 431 396 0 -42% -6% 31% -4%
7 ATL L 49% 28 30 413 397 0 -26% 5% 26% -5% Passing 4.8% 23 -0.3% 9
8 at BUF L 0% 11 26 262 351 -2 -35% -17% 5% -13% Rushing -23.1% 29 -6.6% 17
9 HOU W 87% 17 9 262 272 -1 -2% -43% -37% 4%
First Down -8.4% 25 -11.2% 5
10 BAL W 84% 22 10 350 304 2 -1% -31% -27% 2%
Second Down -14.6% 25 2.6% 18
11 at NYJ W 61% 24 17 388 380 0 -38% -10% 16% -12%
Third Down -9.3% 24 4.6% 22
12 CAR W 100% 33 10 315 198 2 46% -2% -48% 0%
13 NYG W 95% 20 9 297 250 1 1% 3% 0% -1% First Half -11.0% 23 -11.7% 5
14 BYE Second Half -10.6% 24 5.7% 23
15 NYJ W 91% 31 24 379 228 -2 0% -9% -8% 1%
16 at NO W 100% 20 3 259 164 1 59% -6% -70% -5% Red Zone -8.5% 23 -11.4% 6
17 at TEN L 0% 3 34 256 308 -2 -78% -46% 19% -13% Late and Close -9.4% 27 -0.4% 15
18 NE W 45% 33 24 298 379 3 27% 27% 8% 8%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 6-10 4.9 5.4 281 393 -14 -21.7% 28 -13.6% 27 10.7% 28 2.6% 12 65.3 29 60.8 28 27.3 11 27.1 4 25.8 19
2018 7-9 5.1 5.0 319 433 +5 -17.7% 27 -9.5% 26 7.1% 26 -1.1% 21 66.3 30 26.8 12 27.3 10 26.1 20 25.8 17
2019 5-11 3.6 3.0 306 494 -10 -38.8% 32 -14.5% 28 23.0% 32 -1.3% 22 43.0 18 57.0 30 26.6 19 25.1 32 25.3 27
2020 10-6 9.8 8.2 404 338 +9 4.6% 12 -2.1% 18 -3.3% 11 3.3% 6 43.6 19 22.1 5 25.5 29 25.9 27 25.3 28
2021 9-8 7.6 6.6 341 373 0 -10.9% 25 -10.8% 24 -2.9% 10 -2.9% 29 42.2 15 8.7 1 25.5 29 26.3 19 26.3 12

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

MIA Offense MIA Offense vs. Opponents MIA Defense MIA Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
12 61% 5.1 -8.8% 41% Base 13% 3.8 -21.0% 57% Base 34% 4.8 -5.5% 11 52% 5.5 0.1%
11 27% 4.8 -4.3% 19% Nickel 76% 5.0 -3.9% 36% Nickel 33% 5.8 -4.8% 12 19% 5.4 -8.0%
13 4% 3.5 -6.8% 62% Dime+ 11% 5.6 0.7% 12% Dime+ 31% 5.7 0.5% 21 11% 5.7 5.9%
02 2% 8.8 91.3% 0% Goal Line 1% 0.5 -9.2% 75% Goal Line 1% 1.0 23.7% 10 4% 5.6 -11.3%
WC 2% 2.1 6.0% 95% 611 4% 5.8 5.6%
22 3% 4.5 -55.0%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 33% 28 Form: Single Back 87% 7 Rush 3 9.4% 7 4 DB 34% 2 Play Action 35% 1
Runs, first down 45% 25 Form: Empty Back 8% 18 Rush 4 52.0% 32 5 DB 33% 32 Offensive Motion 54% 5
Runs, second-long 31% 12 Form: Multi Back 5% 23 Rush 5 27.8% 2 6+ DB 32% 1 Avg Box (Off) 6.48 15
Runs, power sit. 51% 25 Pers: 3+ WR 30% 32 Rush 6+ 10.8% 2 Man Coverage 33% 6 Avg Box (Def) 6.67 7
Runs, behind 2H 24% 27 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 72% 1 Edge Rusher Sacks 45.7% 22 CB by Sides 69% 22 Offensive Pace 31.04 15
Pass, ahead 2H 46% 19 Pers: 6+ OL 1% 24 Interior DL Sacks 19.1% 23 S/CB Cover Ratio 29% 11 Defensive Pace 30.66 11
Run-Pass Options 20% 5 Shotgun/Pistol 83% 4 Second Level Sacks 35.1% 3 DB Blitz 22% 1 Go for it on 4th 0.84 27
158 MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami was the first offense since the 2012 Houston Texans to use a personnel group other than 11 personnel more than 50%
of the time. While 31 NFL teams had 11 as their most common personnel, the Dolphins used 12 personnel on 61% of plays. No
other team used 12 personnel even half that often. 🏈 Miami jumped from 19th to first in frequency of play-action and from
18th to fifth in using motion. That latter number will likely move even higher with Mike McDaniel in charge of the offense, as
San Francisco led the NFL in using motion in 2021. 🏈 Miami led the NFL by going max protect on 14.1% of pass plays,
defined as seven or more blockers with at least two more blockers than pass-rushers. 🏈 The Dolphins used the pistol on
11.9% of plays, second in the league behind Baltimore. They had 5.3 yards per play with 0.8% DVOA from the pistol. 🏈
Miami’s defense ranked fifth in DVOA for the first half of games but 23rd after halftime. 🏈 The Dolphins ranked fourth in
yards allowed per drive and ninth in points allowed per drive but 31st in three-and-outs per drive.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Tagovailoa 280 -0.7% 407 2501 6.1 4.7 68.0% 16 10 J.Waddle 146 0.3% 140 104 1015 9.8 4.2 7 74%
J.Brissett* -195 -22.9% 243 1141 4.7 3.6 63.2% 5 4 D.Parker* 74 0.0% 73 40 515 12.9 2.6 2 55%
T.Bridgewater 601 9.7% 457 2831 6.2 4.9 67.1% 18 7 A.Wilson* -61 -31.9% 39 25 213 8.5 5.7 0 64%
M.Hollins* 50 9.2% 28 14 223 15.9 2.9 4 50%
I.Ford 41 18.4% 17 12 161 13.4 5.0 2 71%
Rushing P.Williams -43 -42.7% 16 6 71 11.8 6.3 0 38%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc W.Fuller* -14 -34.6% 8 4 26 6.5 2.5 0 50%
M.Gaskin -66 -17.9% 173 612 3.5 3 2 44% T.Hill 313 11.6% 159 111 1239 11.2 4.0 9 70%
D.Johnson* 65 12.6% 71 330 4.6 3 0 55% C.Wilson 154 18.6% 61 45 602 13.4 5.8 6 74%
S.Ahmed -62 -34.9% 54 149 2.8 0 0 31% T.Sherfield -20 -25.8% 20 9 87 9.7 2.6 1 45%
P.Lindsay* 6 -4.5% 38 119 3.1 0 0 47% M.Gesicki -2 -7.6% 112 73 780 10.7 3.0 2 65%
M.Brown* -1 -9.3% 33 125 3.8 1 0 52% D.Smythe 47 9.9% 41 34 357 10.5 4.7 0 83%
T.Tagovailoa 18 -2.2% 28 137 4.9 3 2 - A.Shaheen -6 -12.1% 16 12 110 9.2 3.4 0 75%
J.Brissett* 12 -2.6% 18 71 3.9 1 0 - M.Gaskin -15 -17.7% 63 49 234 4.8 5.1 4 78%
S.Michel 83 0.6% 208 845 4.1 4 1 54% S.Ahmed 6 -8.6% 19 12 117 9.8 10.3 0 63%
C.Edmonds 109 12.9% 116 592 5.1 2 0 58% C.Edmonds 21 -6.0% 53 43 311 7.2 7.5 0 81%
T.Bridgewater 32 8.8% 24 112 4.7 2 1 - S.Michel -27 -27.8% 33 21 128 6.1 6.3 1 64%
T.Hill 47 56.7% 9 96 10.7 0 0 - A.Ingold 33 26.8% 12 10 85 8.5 4.6 1 83%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Robert Hunt RG 26 17/17 1154 7 1.0 11 11 Austin Reiter* C 31 6/5 422 1 1.0 4 3
Liam Eichenberg LT 24 17/16 1109 10 10.0 42 7 Greg Mancz* C 30 5/4 185 0 0.0 2 1
Austin Jackson LG 23 17/16 1097 13 2.0 21 8 Connor Williams LG 25 17/14 950 15 2.0 11 3
Jesse Davis* RT 31 17/16 1064 4 5.5 26 8 Terron Armstead LT 31 8/8 467 3 2.0 5 4
Michael Deiter C 26 8/8 546 2 0.0 3 3

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 2.96 3.17 32 70% 6 26% 32 0.86 32 0.25 31 15.3% 31 58 8.6% 28 36.7% 31 20.9% 32 20
2020 3.95 4.18 24 67% 13 18% 21 1.09 26 0.50 29 13.7% 30 34 6.9% 20 23.8% 11 11.6% 13 28
2021 3.62 3.81 30 52% 30 18% 22 0.84 31 0.35 30 10.6% 13 40 6.9% 19 27.1% 19 16.6% 30 25
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.52 (2) Left Tackle: 3.70 (27) Mid/Guard: 3.71 (31) Right Tackle: 3.70 (27) Right End: 4.12 (16)

As part of the “fish tank,” the Dolphins invested major draft capital on the offensive line in recent years. That included
Michael Deiter in the third round in 2019; Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, and Solomon Kindley in the first, second, and fourth
rounds in 2020; and Liam Eichenberg in the second round in 2021. It hasn’t worked out. Deiter blew 5.1% of his pass blocks
as a rookie, lost his job in 2020, and then missed most of 2021 with foot and quad injuries. Kindley blew five of his first 81
pass blocks in his second year in 2021 and hit the bench. And Jackson’s improvement from a 4.6% to a 3.2% blown pass block
rate may owe more to his move from the more difficult left tackle position to left guard last season than to his development.
🏈 Eichenberg blew 40 pass blocks in 2021, two more than any other lineman. It was hardly a promising start to a career,
but Eichenberg can at least blame an unexpected move to left tackle to replace Jackson after his move inside. Eichenberg is
 MIAMI DOLPHINS 159

stronger than he is quick in his lateral movements, and he told Palm Beach Post reporter Joe Schad last August that he believes
he was drafted to play right tackle and needed reps and practice at the position. 🏈 Eichenberg should have a chance to play
where he wants in 2022 after the Dolphins released incumbent right tackle Jesse Davis and signed Terron Armstead. Armstead’s
pass-blocking may mean less for his new team with a left-handed quarterback who has the opposite blind side. But he looks
like the next best thing for an outside zone running game to 49ers’ left tackle Trent Williams. Armstead even beat Williams’
mind-boggling 4.81s 40 time with a 4.71s time that remains a combine record for offensive linemen. Assuming the 31-year-old
recovers from the elbow and knee injuries that cost him half of 2021, Armstead should spearhead the outside zone with pulls
with his elite speed. And he and Cowboys import Connor Williams should make over a run-blocking unit that has finished in
the bottom 10 for adjusted line yards each of the last three seasons. Just watch out for holding, where Williams led the NFL
with 13 flags in 2021.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Christian Wilkins 27 DE 17 734 93 10.7% 1 70 19 7 77 75% 25 2.1 27 4.5 7 23 3
Adam Butler 28 DT 17 591 20 2.3% 99 13 5 6 10 50% 97 3.0 74 2.0 3 9 2
Zach Sieler 27 DE 17 518 65 7.5% 12 53 11 8 59 80% 12 2.5 44 2.0 2 18 2
Raekwon Davis 25 DT 14 425 28 3.9% 80 20 4 5 25 72% 39 3.1 76 0.5 0 4 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Andrew Van Ginkel 27 OLB 17 801 69 8.0% 8 48 18 11 41 76% 32 2.3 32 4.0 15 32 2
Emmanuel Ogbah 29 DE 17 755 53 6.1% 32 45 20 4 27 78% 24 2.0 25 9.0 13 40 11
Jaelan Phillips 23 OLB 17 603 43 5.0% 53 28 15 7 25 64% 77 3.6 81 8.5 6 24 1
Melvin Ingram 33 OLB 15 592 26 3.5% 82 24 12 3 19 95% 3 0.7 3 2.0 9 30 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Jerome Baker 26 ILB 16 972 97 11.9% 44 50 20 11 38 55% 51 4.4 66 5.5 10 21 44 64% 11 5.2 16 4 1
Elandon Roberts 28 ILB 17 621 87 10.0% 61 51 10 17 62 61% 27 3.2 15 1.0 1 6 15 53% 28 5.5 25 4 1
Duke Riley 28 ILB 16 227 21 2.6% -- 10 2 2 13 62% -- 4.8 -- 0.0 0 2 7 71% -- 3.7 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.46 5.00 32 65% 18 14% 28 1.32 25 0.53 5 7.4% 32 23 4.4% 32 24.1% 31 8.3% 32
2020 4.41 4.41 16 71% 26 17% 16 1.30 19 0.66 13 14.1% 11 41 7.5% 9 29.4% 5 14.8% 10
2021 4.45 4.21 16 74% 30 18% 12 1.13 11 0.96 30 11.6% 19 48 8.0% 4 34.1% 1 14.4% 18
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.05 (5) Left Tackle: 3.37 (4) Mid/Guard: 4.53 (25) Right Tackle: 3.80 (10) Right End: 5.65 (26)

The Dolphins led the league with a 34.1% defensive pressure rate, and they owe much of that success to exceptional depth.
With Emmanuel Ogbah and Andrew Van Ginkel, the Dolphins were one of just eight teams with two pass-rushers with 30 or
more hurries. And first-round draft pick Jaelan Phillips had 24 hurries and 8.5 sacks. The latter total was second among rookie
defenders. 🏈 Ogbah doesn’t receive the star treatment, but he has 40 hurries each of the last two seasons. Combined, they
land Ogbah fourth among pass-rushers since 2020 behind the more discussed Aaron Donald, Shaq Barrett, and Maxx Crosby.
🏈 Free-agent addition Melvin Ingram has seen his sack totals slip from 10.5 in 2017 to 7.0, 7.0, 0.0, and 2.0 the last four
seasons as he has entered his thirties. That might imply a minor rotational role on his new team, but Ingram did have 30 hurries
last season. Ingram and Jerry Hughes of the Bills (now Texans) were the only defensive ends with 30 or more hurries and fewer
than 7.5 sacks last season. 🏈 After a last-place finish in 2019, the Dolphins plateaued at 16th in adjusted line yards the last
two years. But don’t blame defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. He enjoyed a massive 2021 breakout, nearly doubling his total
stops from 41 to 70. That latter total trailed just Aaron Donald’s 72 among defensive linemen. 🏈 The biggest reason for
the Dolphins’ relative weakness in run defense was an 11.5% broken tackle rate that was fourth highest in football. Linebacker
Elandon Roberts had a 32.1% broken tackle rate that was second worst among linebackers with 30 or more broken tackles. And
Van Ginkel was in the bottom 10 with his 23.4% rate. 🏈 Jerome Baker provides a bright spot at linebacker with his 64%
coverage success rate, but this is the defensive position where the Dolphins have the most room to improve. That may have
influenced their top 2022 draft selection of Channing Tindall, another standout athlete from the national championship Georgia
defense. But Tindall is raw and may not be ready to contribute much in his rookie season.
160 MIAMI DOLPHINS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Xavien Howard 29 CB 16 1026 66 8.1% 50 30 15 9 18 22% 74 9.1 70 73 19.0% 48 12.9 55% 40 8.0 54 16 5
Byron Jones 30 CB 16 976 68 8.3% 45 26 9 0 10 50% 22 5.6 33 73 20.0% 40 12.7 51% 52 8.9 73 10 0
Jevon Holland 22 FS 16 893 78 9.6% 49 28 12 9 30 30% 50 9.8 67 19 5.7% 62 16.5 37% 70 12.7 73 10 2
Brandon Jones 24 SS 15 645 77 10.1% 45 28 11 13 39 38% 34 5.1 13 18 7.4% 49 9.3 33% 73 10.7 68 1 1
Eric Rowe 30 SS 17 638 76 8.8% 57 37 18 8 25 40% 31 6.0 20 43 18.0% 3 8.4 63% 17 5.5 12 4 0
Nik Needham 26 CB 17 607 64 7.4% -- 19 11 3 15 20% -- 12.4 -- 40 17.6% -- 9.3 55% -- 6.9 -- 5 2
Justin Coleman* 29 CB 16 371 30 3.7% -- 10 5 5 4 75% -- 5.0 -- 29 20.9% -- 12.1 45% -- 8.4 -- 3 2
Jason McCourty* 35 FS 7 312 23 6.5% -- 9 3 3 10 30% -- 8.2 -- 12 10.3% -- 10.1 58% -- 8.5 -- 2 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 32 26.0% 31 21.9% 28 -3.3% 15 17.9% 30 17.1% 26 11.3% 29 55.4% 32
2020 6 -2.2% 17 -14.3% 7 -11.3% 9 -3.2% 14 -7.9% 8 -13.1% 7 14.8% 26
2021 9 -17.9% 4 -12.1% 10 22.8% 30 8.1% 24 -8.9% 5 26.0% 30 -11.2% 9

The Dolphins and cornerback Xavien Howard had a contentious 2021 that hit a low point in July when Howard requested a
trade. But those troubles likely ended when Howard signed an extension this April that gave him more than $50 million in new
money. Howard has seen his yards per target increase each of the last four seasons, but he remains one of the best cornerbacks in
football thanks to his atypical consistency in making interceptions. Howard’s 23 interceptions since 2018 are second behind J.C.
Jackson’s 25, and Howard has at least four picks in four of the past five seasons. 🏈 Byron Jones was supposed to give the
Dolphins the best cornerback duo in the sport. But after a standout final Cowboys season with a top-12 rate of 6.1 yards per target,
Jones has slipped to 9.4 and 8.9 yards per target in his two Dolphins seasons that both missed the top 60. Jones avoided a potential
release with a contract restructure, but his chances for a rebound in 2022 may hinge on his recovery from ankle surgery that had
him sidelined for several months this offseason. 🏈 If the Dolphins end up with a best defensive duo in the sport, it will likely
be at safety with 2020 and 2021 Day 2 picks Brandon Jones and Jevon Holland. Jones and Holland made their biggest impact as
pass-rushers in 2021. The Dolphins led the league in defensive back blitzes and ranked second with -25.7% DVOA on those plays.
Jones led defensive backs with 5.0 sacks and Holland led them with 11 hurries. Holland had modest coverage numbers but did
contribute 10 passes defensed, a top-five total among safeties. But Jones had underwhelmed in coverage in his two seasons and
will need to improve there to fully unseat the veteran Eric Rowe. Rowe’s 5.5 yards per target ranked 12th among qualified safeties.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -1.3% 22 -1.3 19 -1.6 22 3.4 7 -2.8 21 -4.3 26 -3.5 21
2020 3.3% 6 12.5 3 7.9 2 -2.5 19 -5.3 24 4.0 8 15.7 2
2021 -2.9% 29 -7.0 28 2.4 14 -3.0 23 -0.5 19 -7.4 32 3.6 13

Kickers are notoriously inconsistent from one year to the next, and the Dolphins may already regret the five-year, $22-million
contract they awarded Jason Sanders after his breakout 2020 season. That year, Sanders set a franchise record making 92.3% of
his field goals. But last year, Sanders regressed to a 74.2% rate, in line with the 76.7% rate from his 2019 season. In his defense,
Sanders had three field goals blocked and two of his misses came from over 55 yards. 🏈 The Dolphins will continue their
streak of attempted punter rehab in 2022. Last year, they signed Michael Palardy a year removed from his torn ACL. This year,
they have added Thomas Morstead, whose back injury in 2020 likely contributed to his Saints release and just temporary work for
the Jets and Falcons in 2021. But Morstead looks like the better bet. He rebounded from 43.1 gross yards per punt in his injured
2020 season to 47.2 gross yards per punt in 2021, a rate in line with his prime years. 🏈 As competition for the 36-year-old
Morstead, the Dolphins added UDFA Tommy Heatherly out of Florida International. Heatherly has a powerful leg that could earn
him a role on kickoffs as well as punts. But he also dealt with conditioning issues in his college career and at his heaviest weighed
317 pounds in 2018. He is 202 pounds to start his professional career. 🏈 Jakeem Grant fumbled after a catch in the red zone in
Week 2 and muffed a punt in Week 4, and that earned him a trade to the Bear, but it didn’t solve the Dolphins’ punt return woes.
Grant provided top-five punt return value in 2020 and matched that standard with 13.9 yards per punt return for his new team after
the trade. But his Dolphins heirs Jaylen Waddle and Jevon Holland provided modest averages of 7.0 and 7.7 yards per punt return,
and they and new receiver addition Tyreek Hill may be too valuable on offense and defense to risk as punt returners in 2022. Lynn
Bowden would likely be the team’s best alternative. He took two of his nine Kentucky punt returns for touchdowns.
 Minnesota Vikings
2021 record: 8-9 Total DVOA: 2.6% (16) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.5 wins On the Clock (0-5): 7%
Pythagorean Wins: 8.5 (18) Offense: 2.6% (16) Postseason Odds: 59.7% Mediocrity (6-8): 27%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.7 (12) Defense: 0.4% (16) Super Bowl Odds: 10.0% Playoff Contender (9-11): 43%
Average Opponent: 1.1% (11) Special Teams: 0.4% (13) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -1.1% (25) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 23%

2021: The Mike Zimmer era finally became stale and went out with a whimper.

2022: Can the new power structure get the Vikings to play to the level of their star talent?

P hilosophical shifts tend to go hand-in-hand with rebuilds.

Bad teams turn over their power structure and look for
something fresh, but do not have the talent or resources to flip
to help usher in a new crop of players. Eric Kendricks is an
elite coverage linebacker, a rare commodity. Defensive end
Danielle Hunter, though battling back from two years of inju-
the switch immediately. It’s as standard a formula as there is ries, should be one of the league’s best pass-rushers, even if
in a league where job security is fickle and talent acquisition he is only 90% of his pre-injury self. That trio isn’t exactly the
can be difficult to speedrun thanks to the salary cap. Monstars, but they do provide the Vikings with homegrown
This year’s Vikings are a little different. Rookie general leaders and Pro Bowl-caliber talents at all three levels of the
manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and first-year head coach defense as they try to mold the team with a new and improved
Kevin O’Connell do not have to rebuild this thing right now. vision. That’s a much better starting point than most teams
It’s not a perfect roster by any means, but the Vikings were have when they are turning over their head coach and general
competitive last season and they retained almost all of their manager.
critical pieces on both sides of the ball. They’re too good to These facts establish Minnesota’s ability to be competi-
tear it down right now; they’re too good to rebuild. tive and entertaining. Whether or not those stars have stable
Right off the top, the Vikings chose to keep quarterback enough ground to stand on, however, relies on a flurry of un-
Kirk Cousins. Moving his contract would have been a burden, known factors. The roster is incomplete in a handful of spots
but it could have been done and it wasn’t, and now Cousins due to depth issues, uncertainty in second-year development,
will remain in Minnesota for at least another year. Cousins or the unknown of a rookie starter. Mix all of that up in the
isn’t a quarterback who elevates a roster beyond its limits, same blender as a rookie head coach and a new defensive
but he’s a quality starter who consistently produces like an playcaller and you begin to see the restraints that could hold
above-average player. He has now finished in the top 10 for the Vikings back from a meaningful postseason run in 2022.
passing DVOA in three straight seasons. Cousins may not At this stage, the Vikings likely cannot add enough of the
get the Vikings where they want to be a few years down the “glue guys” necessary to level up the roster any further this
road, but he allows them to field a competitive team right now offseason. The depth issues are what they are, and the Vikings
and evaluate the offense with eyes wide open. There’s value seem content on letting the chips fall where they may with
in that because this year’s Vikings do not want to tank. It’s unproven first- and second-year players assuming major roles.
difficult to be a legitimately bad team with an above-average Whatever improvement over last year that is left to be made
passer—though last year’s Falcons team did manage to thread falls on the new coaching staff, namely O’Connell and defen-
that needle. sive coordinator Ed Donatell. That’s a tall order, especially if
The rest of the squad is largely intact too. Star wide receiver the goal is a playoff run.
Justin Jefferson is entering Year 3 and primed to take on an On the head coach’s side of the ball, the overall themes will
even bigger role in the new offense. Adam Thielen is still in look painfully familiar to Vikings fans. O’Connell is a for-
town as one of the best No. 2 pass-catchers in recent history. mer Jay Gruden disciple and spent the past two seasons as
Running back Dalvin Cook also returns as one of the league’s the Rams’ offensive coordinator under Sean McVay, who also
best, health permitting. Both young offensive tackles will ob- climbed the ladder while working under Gruden. Minnesota’s
viously be back as well. Christian Darrisaw had a fine rookie offense the past three years has been called by Kevin Stefans-
season at left tackle, while Brian O’Neill on the other side is ki, Gary Kubiak, and Klint Kubiak, all of whom share roots in
arguably the best player at his position in the NFL. Any de- that Shanahan tree of offense along with McVay and Gruden.
gree of improvement out of Darrisaw would give the Vikings They all added their own flavor, just as O’Connell likely will,
a top-class offensive tackle duo. That’s a pretty darn good but the offense, especially with Cousins at the helm, often
core. (Do not look at the interior offensive line.) comes back to being an under-center, run-favored attack with
Defensively, linebacker Anthony Barr left in free agency, a heavy smattering of play-action passing concepts.
but most of the team’s cornerstones remain. Harrison Smith, Last year’s “twist” on the Cousins offense was using drop-
though not what he once was, is still a good safety and leader back passing concepts from under center more than any other
161
162 MINNESOTA VIKINGS

2021 MIN DVOA by Week

2022 Vikings Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 GB 7 BYE 13 NYJ
2 at PHI (Mon.) 8 ARI 14 at DET 40%
3 DET 9 at WAS 15 IND 20%
4 at NO (U.K.) 10 at BUF 16 NYG (Sat.)
0%
5 CHI 11 DAL 17 at GB
6 at MIA 12 NE (Thu.) 18 at CHI -20%

-40%

-60%

team. Cousins registered 93 non-play action passing plays -80%

(sacks included) from under-center formations last season. -100%

The only other quarterback to even clear 50 such plays was

Mac Jones (55), and nobody else had more than 36. On aver-
age, Cousins had about four more of these plays per game
than the average NFL quarterback. That may not sound like uring out how those two things might be linked. The most in-
a ton, but if we assume a quarterback drops back a bit fewer teresting possibility is that O’Connell draws inspiration from
than 40 times per game, four plays represents more than 10% how the Rams used Cooper Kupp.
of the pie. That’s pretty significant, at least in terms of identi- Last year’s receiving Triple Crown winner played 87% of
fying team play style. his snaps from the slot. Kupp was used to work option routes,
That was necessitated for a few reasons. For one, the Vi- stretch the field horizontally, and make tough catches in traf-
kings didn’t seem fully comfortable unleashing K.J. Osborn fic. However, it was Kupp’s blocking that really unlocked Los
as the No. 3 receiver. Minnesota tied with Baltimore for the Angeles’ ability to play him as tight to the core as they did and
second-lowest rate of 11 personnel usage at just 42%. Osborn allowed him to be a de facto tight end. He blocked down on
flashed as a field-stretcher and twitchy underneath YAC threat, edge defenders, climbed up to linebackers, and even split back
but the truth is he was more threatening as a fantasy opponent across the formation at times. As a result, the Rams had access
than a real-life opponent. He finished 50th in DYAR, 46th in to run concepts and run situations they may not have other-
DVOA, and 56th in catch rate, all of which were average or wise been able to get to, which is part of what pushed them
slightly below last season. to finishing 12th in rushing DVOA despite an injury-induced
Furthermore, the offense wanted to be under center and in revolving door at running back.
heavier formations anyway. Cousins’ offenses have typically To understand how Jefferson fits into that role, let’s think
gravitated that way his entire career, at least the under-center back to his college days. Jefferson was on the 2019 LSU
aspect. That kind of offense pushes the defense to match with squad that won the national championship. That team featured
base personnel. (Minnesota opponents used base 36% of the Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall, both top-100 picks who
time last season, fourth in the NFL.) In a league where de- were primarily outside receivers. Jefferson was cast as the slot
fenses are moving towards playing their base defense with receiver in that offense, an offense which required him to run
two outside linebackers on the edge and two high safeties in option routes, stretch the field horizontally, and block like hell
coverage, there is more immediate space for a passing offense when he was tight to the formation, which was fairly often.
to work with underneath. There are just fewer bodies manning Sound familiar? Jefferson has taken on more of an outside role
the second level of the defense, and one of the edge players in the NFL to this point, but he’s still certified from the slot.
has to drop out into coverage if the defense wants to only rush Jefferson saw 48% of his targets last season from slot or tight
four. Embracing dropback passing from under center also al- alignments, where he posted a league-best 46.1% DVOA.
lowed the Vikings to be less predictable, considering hardly Jefferson has an extra gear of speed and a little less muscle
any other teams in the league were willing to commit to it as a blocker compared to Kupp, but it’s not hard to imagine
and tie it in with their under-center run game and play-action him mimicking Kupp in Minnesota. We saw some version of
looks. that at LSU and Jefferson has been a rock star when deployed
How much of that O’Connell keeps in the playbook is to from the slot in the NFL so far. Assuming Jefferson maintains
be seen. The Vikings ran 54% of their total snaps in under- his quality as a blocker, putting him in that role should help
center formations last season, second most in the league. broaden Minnesota’s run game possibilities as well as more
O’Connell’s Rams finished seventh at 41%, so he clearly has regularly put the Vikings’ best pass-catcher in the part of the
experience putting together an under-center offense. Nobody field Cousins best prefers to throw to.
else was really calling dropback from under center last season, If anything, the hang-up with using Jefferson like Kupp, at
but it’s entirely possible O’Connell keeps it as a regular part of least this year, is that the Vikings still don’t have enough out-
the offense at Cousins’ behest. side receiver talent. Thielen can handle things just fine, but
O’Connell’s real challenge will be sorting out what to do Osborn isn’t doing anything more than stretching the field. He
with Jefferson, fixing a 27th-ranked rushing offense, and fig- isn’t the type of receiver you want running curls, comebacks,
 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 163

dig routes, etc. Jefferson is far more equipped for that and It sure is easy to find spots where they got better, though.
O’Connell may deem it better for the ecosystem of the passing With Griffen out the door, the Vikings replaced him with divi-
offense right now to keep Jefferson outside more often rather sion rival Za’Darius Smith. A back injury held Smith out for
than recreating the Kupp role, even if that may be at some basically all of 2021, but he combined for 26 sacks in the pre-
cost to the run game. Perhaps Ihmir Smith-Marsette takes a vious two years in Green Bay. The back injury will likely sap
step forward in Year 2 and provides another option outside, Smith of some of his effectiveness, but even a watered-down
but nobody should be holding their breath for a fifth-round version of 2019-2020 Smith is an upgrade off the edge and a
pick to break out. Fourth-year receiver Olabisi Johnson also perfect running mate for Hunter, who is more of a speed-and-
returns from an ACL injury, but he was never a deep threat or length rusher compared to Smith’s sawed-off power.
explosive with the ball during his first two seasons. The secondary is where Minnesota really took their swings,
The Vikings’ only other path to improvement in the run particularly through the NFL draft. After trading back from
game is hoping their young offensive linemen turn it up a 12th to 32nd overall, the Vikings picked one of 700 Georgia
notch, particularly Darrisaw and rookie second-round pick Ed prospects, safety Lewis Cine. In a league now asking more and
Ingram. There is some uncertainty in banking on two young different things of its safeties than during the 2010s, Cine is
players to fix the offensive line, but it’s not crazy to think the the right kind of prospect to bet on, showcasing versatility in
two of them can make some headway. Any degree of second- coverage as well as exceptional tackling skills. He pairs beauti-
year improvement out of Darrisaw at left tackle would be a fully with Smith, who shares some of that same versatility. That
boon for the unit at large and it would be tough for even an should allow the two of them to be used interchangeably, sort of
inexperienced Ingram to be worse than any of the right guards like how the Bills deploy Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.
Minnesota rolled out over the past few seasons. Darrisaw and Cornerback was Minnesota’s real pain point last year,
Ingram will not turn the Vikings into an elite offensive line though, and they took more of a patchwork approach to fixing
overnight, but they can at least help the team finish better than that position. After Cine, the Vikings drafted Clemson cor-
24th in adjusted line yards and dead last in stuff rate like they ner Andrew Booth Jr. in the second round. Booth is a long
did a year ago. cornerback who thrives in press coverage and when working
Minnesota’s offense projects to be a step up from what they to find the ball in the air. Non-first-round cornerbacks are a
were a year ago. Slight improvements along the offensive coin flip, but it won’t take much to be better than Bashaud
line on top of whatever offensive flare O’Connell may bring Breeland was a year ago. The Vikings also added Chandon
should be enough to get the Vikings jostling for a top-10 rank- Sullivan via free agency, another former Packer. Sullivan is
ing again. That’s generally what Cousins-led offenses have more of a nickel type and will take over for Mackensie Al-
produced and it’s easy to see why this year could follow the exander, a player who fared well statistically but never felt
same path unless it turns out O’Connell is out of his depth. like an impact player. Sullivan isn’t either, to be clear, but he
Come January, that same Cousins-led offense will probably should maintain about the same level of performance as the
fall a little short the way it always has, but at least the Vikings guy he is replacing.
will be playing watchable, even exciting, offense again. Tasked with stitching together the new unit is Donatell, a
There is a much more interesting set of circumstances brew- longtime Vic Fangio disciple who spent the past three sea-
ing on the other side of the ball. Despite losing an elite de- sons as Denver’s defensive coordinator. Donatell hasn’t been
fensive mind in Zimmer, we project the Minnesota defense a defensive coordinator away from Fangio since 2006, so it’s
to finish 10th in 2022, a tier jump from their 16th- and 18th- tough to parse how much of Denver’s scheme was Donatell’s
place finishes in 2021 and 2020, respectively. A depleted pass- doing, but it’s fair to assume he is going to bring over a lot of
rushing crew and a makeshift secondary hindered the unit the same structure and principles.
last season, but the new front office made sure to restock the Donatell is bringing a 3-4 base to Minnesota, a change-up
shelves. Pair that with the return of Hunter, who scored six from the past eight years of Zimmer’s four-down structure.
sacks in seven games before losing the rest of the season to a For the most part, though, that shift will not be a problem
torn pectoral, and the Vikings are in a much better spot talent- for Minnesota’s players up front. Smith is used to being an
wise than they were last year. Their top-third projection on outside linebacker from his time in Baltimore and Green Bay,
defense for this season reflects that. Phillips and Armon Watts each make sense as interior defen-
The net change of talent this offseason looks pretty favor- sive linemen on or just inside the tackles, Dalvin Tomlinson is
able for the Vikings. Minnesota signed Jordan Hicks to fill in a stud nose guard who can move around a little bit, and Hicks
for Barr. Though not the sexiest name on the market, Hicks is is coming off a decent year as an inside linebacker in Ari-
a fine NFL starter and, truthfully, a better fit for the new de- zona’s 3-4 base defense. That leaves Kendricks and Hunter,
fense. Aside from Barr, the only other “losses” were a handful but exceptionally talented players tend to figure these things
of subpar players in the secondary, a declining 34-year-old out. Kendricks is one of the best coverage linebackers in the
Everson Griffen, and defensive tackle Michael Pierce. Pierce game and excels at fighting through traffic despite his size,
was the only plus starter of the group, and even then, the Vi- while Hunter’s speed and length should translate just fine as
kings made a signing of equal or greater impact by bringing an outside linebacker.
in Harrison Phillips from the Bills. It’s hard to find a position As far as the overall themes of the defense, there are not
where the Vikings got materially worse. many major shakeups. Zimmer’s Vikings were in base per-
164 MINNESOTA VIKINGS

sonnel 10% more often than Donatell’s Broncos last year, way the league is headed and the general prerogative of the
but that can be partially explained by the Vikings playing in Fangio tree to begin with, but it perfectly fits Smith and Cine’s
a division with Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit, all offenses versatile skill sets. They can each comfortably cover a deep
that preferred to use heavier personnel when possible. On the half, trigger to play the run effectively, and match receivers
flip side, Donatell’s Broncos led the league with a 43% man and tight ends whenever necessary. It’s probably fair to ex-
coverage rate. That cleared Zimmer’s Vikings by about 14%, pect a healthy serving of Cover-4, Cover-6 (half Cover-2, half
but that can be explained too. The Vikings’ only competent Cover-4), and Cover-7 (a.k.a. match Cover-4). Again, that’s
cornerback was an aging Patrick Peterson, while the Broncos not really a far cry from what the Vikings have already been
had a stud rookie in Patrick Surtain II as well as Ronald Dar- of late, but it’s worth keeping in mind anyway.
by, Kyle Fuller, and Bryce Callahan. The Denver secondary Collectively, the Vikings defense should take a step for-
didn’t perform up to the name billing last year, but the Bron- ward, odd as that is given some of the circumstances. Not
cos clearly had the talent to believe they could live in man-to- only is that tough to square when losing someone as sharp as
man coverage. There may be some legitimate difference be- Zimmer, but also when considering first-year defensive co-
tween the two coaches in these regards, but it’s not hard to see ordinators, including veterans of the job, tend to not elevate
how circumstance may be the main separator above all else. their unit in the first season. Even Zimmer really didn’t back
Up front, Donatell’s biggest obstacle is matching Zimmer’s in 2014. It’s just more difficult to install and tighten the screws
prowess as a blitz designer, specifically on third down. Zim- on defense than offense because of its nature as a reactive, not
mer’s Vikings were not necessarily blitz-heavy, but when they proactive, entity. That said, when a team looks to be improved
did send their pressures on third down, you’d be hard pressed at edge rusher, safety, cornerback, and perhaps linebacker, at
to find many teams doing it better. While the Vikings’ third- least stylistically, then it’s not a stretch to see how the influx of
down DVOA fell to the mid- to low teens the past couple of talent outweighs the expected growing pains of a new coach-
years, Zimmer always brought flare with his blitzes. Wheth- ing staff.
er it was the famous double-A package, sending a safety, or We know it’s a little weird how much our computer pro-
overloading one side of the formation, few if any defensive jection loves the Vikings after two losing seasons. But if the
playcallers over the last decade have done as efficient a job defense is primed for some degree of improvement and the
understanding and picking apart opposing protection plans. offense returns to its typical top-10ish level, then the 2022
Even last year, a down year for the Vikings defense, Minneso- Vikings will be good enough to earn a wild-card bid, or per-
ta still led the NFL with 14 sacks in which the defender went haps even vie for the division title depending on how far the
untouched, a testament to how well Zimmer frees his guys up. Packers fall. It’s a bizarre place to be considering their turn-
Donatell is no dummy and is coming over from a defense that over, but the Vikings have never been a team that functions
sent five or more at an above-average rate, but it will be tough normally anyway. Heck, the best year in the Zimmer era was
to live up to Zimmer’s standard as a blitz designer, although when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year. That
the team’s talent upgrades (and returns) at the pass-rushing didn’t make any sense, but it did feel fitting for the Vikings,
spots could make up that gap anyway. as would an oddly successful season following the firing of
In the back end, Donatell has to make the most of the Smith- franchise staples such as Spielman and Zimmer.
Cine pairing. As was the case in Denver, we should expect to
see a fair number of two-high structures. Not only is that the Derrik Klassen
 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 165

2021 Vikings by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at CIN L 60% 24 27 403 366 -1 3% 3% 11% 11% Total DVOA 2.6% 16 0.4% 16
2 at ARI L 36% 33 34 419 474 2 5% 21% 5% -11% Unadjusted VOA 5.3% 15 1.1% 15
3 SEA W 23% 30 17 453 389 0 -4% 27% 29% -1% Weighted Trend -1.6% 16 -0.1% 19
4 CLE L 38% 7 14 255 327 -1 -2% -26% -24% 1% Variance 4.0% 2 3.9% 10
5 DET W 70% 19 17 384 288 0 -12% -19% -11% -4% Average Opponent 0.3% 17 1.3% 9
6 at CAR W 98% 34 28 571 306 2 0% 24% -6% -31%
7 BYE Passing 23.4% 12 2.8% 13
8 DAL L 18% 16 20 278 419 2 15% -13% -26% 2% Rushing -17.4% 27 -3.0% 25
9 at BAL L 83% 31 34 318 500 2 9% 2% 18% 25%
First Down -2.9% 21 11.9% 30
10 at LAC W 97% 27 20 381 253 0 46% 17% -17% 12%
Second Down 2.6% 14 -6.6% 11
11 GB W 6% 34 31 408 467 0 -10% 28% 34% -4%
Third Down 13.0% 9 -10.8% 8
12 at SF L 53% 26 34 323 423 -1 20% 8% 9% 21%
13 at DET L 92% 27 29 426 372 1 2% 3% 2% 1% First Half 5.3% 10 -0.9% 17
14 PIT W 61% 36 28 458 375 -1 2% 4% 4% 1% Second Half -0.2% 19 1.6% 14
15 at CHI W 9% 17 9 193 370 2 -38% -38% 3% 3%
16 LAR L 8% 23 30 361 356 2 -5% -10% -26% -21% Red Zone 9.1% 8 8.3% 26
17 at GB L 0% 10 37 206 481 0 -50% -26% 32% 8% Late and Close -6.4% 25 1.5% 18
18 CHI W 92% 31 17 331 356 2 15% 6% -15% -6%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 13-3 11.7 12.3 382 252 +5 28.7% 2 12.5% 5 -17.2% 1 -0.9% 18 41.9 20 7.1 3 26.9 17 27.9 3 25.7 23
2018 8-7-1 8.5 9.2 360 341 0 10.5% 10 -1.2% 18 -12.6% 3 -0.9% 19 35.0 15 35.2 19 26.9 13 26.7 8 25.5 25
2019 10-6 10.8 10.7 407 303 +11 17.9% 7 4.8% 10 -12.3% 4 0.8% 14 11.7 3 13.9 2 26.3 23 27.2 5 25.7 20
2020 7-9 7.0 7.1 430 475 -1 -6.4% 20 6.3% 8 3.4% 18 -9.4% 31 18.6 5 64.8 30 26.7 16 26.0 23 25.8 21
2021 8-9 8.5 8.7 425 426 +11 2.6% 16 2.6% 16 0.4% 16 0.4% 13 48.5 21 41.4 19 25.9 25 27.7 2 26.1 16

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

MIN Offense MIN Offense vs. Opponents MIN Defense MIN Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 42% 6.0 9.7% 23% Base 36% 5.4 -0.9% 62% Base 34% 5.3 -8.4% 11 63% 5.9 2.7%
21 18% 6.2 -4.4% 52% Nickel 43% 5.8 0.9% 32% Nickel 63% 6.1 4.9% 12 19% 4.7 -13.7%
12 13% 5.4 -7.0% 48% Dime+ 18% 6.9 38.1% 8% Dime+ 3% 7.6 5.4% 21 7% 6.4 -5.5%
22 7% 4.5 -13.4% 80% Goal Line 2% 2.2 5.9% 76% Goal Line 0% -2.0 3.1% 22 3% 6.0 19.2%
01 7% 7.3 59.0% 0% Big 1% 6.9 13.1% 100% 13 3% 6.7 17.6%
20 3% 3.7 -57.9% 69% 10 2% 13.0 73.4%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 39% 15 Form: Single Back 65% 32 Rush 3 3.8% 20 4 DB 34% 4 Play Action 26% 18
Runs, first down 49% 16 Form: Empty Back 14% 4 Rush 4 71.7% 11 5 DB 63% 13 Offensive Motion 45% 13
Runs, second-long 36% 3 Form: Multi Back 21% 3 Rush 5 21.5% 11 6+ DB 3% 26 Avg Box (Off) 6.61 6
Runs, power sit. 56% 19 Pers: 3+ WR 54% 27 Rush 6+ 2.9% 23 Man Coverage 29% 15 Avg Box (Def) 6.43 21
Runs, behind 2H 30% 9 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 28% 19 Edge Rusher Sacks 42.2% 25 CB by Sides 89% 3 Offensive Pace 31.15 17
Pass, ahead 2H 48% 15 Pers: 6+ OL 6% 9 Interior DL Sacks 27.5% 16 S/CB Cover Ratio 20% 28 Defensive Pace 30.97 15
Run-Pass Options 4% 28 Shotgun/Pistol 46% 31 Second Level Sacks 30.4% 6 DB Blitz 7% 23 Go for it on 4th 1.00 17
166 MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This was the second straight year the Vikings were dead last in using single-back formations. Even the team that used single-
back least in the entire NFL still used it almost two-thirds of the time. 🏈 Minnesota had 41.2% DVOA with six offensive
linemen, the highest figure among the 16 teams that used six linemen on at least 30 plays. 🏈 The Vikings ranked third in the
league passing in the red zone but only 29th when running in the red zone. 🏈 In 2020, Kirk Cousins had been among the
worst quarterbacks in the league against defensive back blitzes. In 2021, he was the best. Minnesota’s team offense DVOA went
from -55.6% on defensive back blitzes in 2020 to 82.3% in 2021. 🏈 Minnesota’s defense had the strongest reverse split on
play-action according to DVOA. The Vikings had -19.1% DVOA against play-action, second in the league behind Buffalo, but
allowed 12.4% DVOA on other passes, which ranked 27th in the NFL.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
K.Cousins 954 15.0% 584 4001 6.9 4.9 67.1% 33 7 J.Jefferson 416 18.9% 167 108 1616 15.0 4.5 10 65%
S.Mannion 2 -10.4% 38 174 4.6 4.3 61.1% 1 0 A.Thielen 142 6.5% 95 67 726 10.8 3.6 10 71%
K.J.Osborn 92 2.5% 82 50 655 13.1 3.6 7 61%
D.Westbrook* -38 -47.9% 15 10 68 6.8 1.7 0 67%
Rushing I.Smith-Marsette 63 121.9% 6 5 116 23.2 3.4 2 83%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc A.Wilson -61 -31.9% 39 25 213 8.5 5.7 0 64%
D.Cook 11 -7.6% 249 1160 4.7 6 3 47% T.Conklin* -41 -14.8% 87 61 593 9.7 5.3 3 70%
A.Mattison -57 -18.9% 134 491 3.7 3 1 44% C.Herndon* 8 8.7% 7 4 40 10.0 7.8 1 57%
K.Cousins 14 1.2% 20 119 6.0 1 2 - D.Cook -4 -15.4% 49 34 224 6.6 8.2 0 69%
K.Nwangwu 3 -2.0% 13 61 4.7 0 0 31% A.Mattison -5 -16.4% 39 32 228 7.1 7.4 1 82%
A.Abdullah* 0 -9.1% 7 30 4.3 0 0 43% C.J.Ham 21 5.4% 18 17 125 7.4 3.6 0 94%
C.J.Ham -10 -29.1% 7 34 4.9 0 0 43%
J.Jefferson -13 -76.2% 6 14 2.3 0 0 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Ezra Cleveland LG 24 17/17 1141 3 2.5 14 6 Mason Cole* C/RG 26 14/7 472 0 2.0 11 4
Brian O'Neill RT 27 17/17 1141 5 1.5 11 12 Rashod Hill* LT 30 16/5 342 3 2.0 11 2
Olisaemeka Udoh RG/LT 25 17/16 1076 16 1.0 21 9 Jesse Davis RT 31 17/16 1064 4 5.5 26 8
Garrett Bradbury C 27 13/13 883 8 2.0 11 10 Chris Reed LG/RG 30 14/6 523 3 0.0 5 9
Christian Darrisaw LT 23 12/10 653 3 5.0 13 8

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.67 4.60 7 68% 11 16% 5 1.24 13 1.04 6 10.0% 14 28 6.7% 14 29.9% 16 14.0% 19 24
2020 4.88 5.07 1 57% 27 14% 6 1.43 3 0.83 11 13.7% 31 39 7.7% 26 31.7% 30 14.4% 26 27
2021 4.33 4.02 24 72% 9 23% 32 1.27 7 0.95 4 12.3% 21 30 4.7% 3 27.6% 23 14.3% 20 32
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.77 (25) Left Tackle: 4.54 (12) Mid/Guard: 4.17 (19) Right Tackle: 3.68 (28) Right End: 3.50 (27)

The Vikings fell from first to 24th in adjusted line yards last year, marking the largest year-over-year difference in the league
at -1.05 ALY per carry. At the same time, Minnesota’s adjusted sack rate improved from 26th to third. On film, Kirk Cousins
showed a calmer handling of pressure compared to most of his career, so there’s probably some correlation here. We’ll see if
that holds in 2022. 🏈 After 14 starts at right guard and two at left tackle, Olisaemeka Udoh led the NFL with 16 total pen-
alties. Twelve of those penalties were holding calls, good for second in the league behind Dallas’ Connor Williams. It’s likely
that having to fill in at two different positions exacerbated some of Udoh’s struggles and led to more penalties. 🏈 Second-
round pick Ed Ingram (LSU) is set to take over for Udoh at right guard. Ingram brings good size at 6-foot-3 and 307 pounds,
as well as nearly a 6-foot-10 wingspan that helps him latch onto opponents and drive them back. He sports good strength, both
in his lower and upper half. Most importantly, Ingram has a fair amount of experience and competency as a pulling guard,
which could go a long way if O’Connell wants to move in that direction a bit (as the Rams have recently). 🏈 Center Garrett
Bradbury’s six holding penalties were the most in the league at the position. He did improve slightly in blown block rate, going
from dead last in 2020 to 30th in 2021, but that’s not enough of a jump to get excited about his development when paired with
the penalties. It’s curious that the Vikings didn’t try anything serious to replace him this offseason. 🏈 2020 second-rounder
Ezra Cleveland has developed fairly well, all things considered. A tackle in college, Cleveland posted poor blown block num-
 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 167

bers as a rookie right guard, but fared much better at left guard last season, likely a more natural fit given his experience at left
tackle. Further improving his pass protection should be Cleveland’s focus this season. 🏈 Free-agent tackle Jesse Davis was
a disaster in pass protection for Miami last season. He posted 26 blown blocks on passing plays, one of just four right tackles to
hit that mark or higher. Davis’ low total of blown run blocks softens his overall blown block rate, but in pass pro, he will likely
be a liability if asked to play.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Sheldon Richardson* 32 DT 17 689 43 4.6% 66 28 10 4 31 55% 91 3.2 80 2.5 10 20 3
Armon Watts 26 DT 17 670 46 4.9% 60 32 6 1 38 68% 55 3.1 77 5.0 6 21 0
Dalvin Tomlinson 28 DT 16 641 41 4.7% 63 31 7 1 36 72% 37 2.2 31 2.5 4 12 1
James Lynch 23 DT 13 305 30 4.2% -- 20 4 1 27 67% -- 2.3 -- 1.0 0 4 0
Michael Pierce* 30 DT 8 251 20 4.5% 70 16 8 1 16 81% 9 1.8 9 3.0 1 3 0
Harrison Phillips 26 DT 14 474 52 7.9% 7 39 10 4 47 77% 20 1.9 21 1.0 5 13 1
Jonathan Bullard 29 DE 9 224 22 4.5% -- 14 5 0 21 62% -- 3.3 -- 0.0 1 2 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
D.J. Wonnum 25 DE 17 952 51 5.5% 46 32 13 5 34 50% 94 4.9 97 8.0 8 23 3
Everson Griffen* 35 DE 9 457 15 3.0% 93 13 6 4 9 78% 24 3.7 83 5.0 6 18 0
Danielle Hunter 28 DE 7 384 38 9.9% 1 21 7 2 28 46% 97 4.3 96 6.0 4 14 0
Stephen Weatherly* 28 DE 15 344 22 2.7% -- 17 8 0 18 72% -- 2.5 -- 2.5 4 11 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Eric Kendricks 30 MLB 15 1032 147 17.8% 9 69 18 15 90 48% 70 4.6 71 5.0 0 3 34 44% 50 9.6 71 4 2
Anthony Barr* 30 OLB 11 784 77 12.7% 38 42 12 6 33 61% 30 4.1 56 2.5 3 12 24 63% 13 4.1 5 5 3
Nick Vigil* 29 OLB 16 719 84 9.5% 67 41 13 8 48 65% 17 3.4 20 1.0 2 9 24 42% 58 7.3 52 1 1
Blake Lynch 25 OLB 16 218 32 3.6% -- 16 4 1 18 61% -- 3.2 -- 2.0 0 1 7 43% -- 5.0 -- 2 1
Jordan Hicks 30 ILB 17 1054 121 14.3% 30 55 18 12 66 50% 62 5.1 81 4.0 1 5 34 56% 22 4.6 9 5 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.39 4.60 25 49% 1 16% 25 1.13 12 0.71 14 11.3% 23 48 8.2% 5 30.4% 16 12.2% 27
2020 4.70 5.16 32 76% 31 10% 31 1.30 21 0.61 10 8.4% 31 23 4.8% 28 18.9% 32 7.4% 32
2021 4.47 4.87 32 71% 24 11% 32 1.29 25 0.43 4 11.1% 25 51 7.4% 9 24.0% 21 12.3% 26
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.19 (29) Left Tackle: 5.48 (32) Mid/Guard: 4.94 (32) Right Tackle: 4.93 (30) Right End: 3.66 (10)

The Vikings have ranked dead last in adjusted line yards up the middle two years running despite quality play from Dalvin
Tomlinson and Michael Pierce at nose tackle. It’s curious, but part of the issue could be that neither linebacker Eric Kendricks
nor Anthony Barr is particularly good at playing downhill to kill blocks and condense space at the line of scrimmage, as well
as some effects of playing a four-down front in an increasingly three-down world. Switching to a 3-4 and adding Jordan Hicks
into the mix could help turn things around. 🏈 Kendricks’ poor coverage numbers are more a function of the level of dif-
ficulty than poor play. Kendricks, under Zimmer, was regularly tasked with covering large swaths of the middle of the field
and playing what was behind him in order to help facilitate others. That reflected poorly on Kendricks when he was stretched
too thin as result of a poor secondary and weakened pass rush. 🏈 Minnesota’s edge depth will be a problem unless 2021
second-round pick Patrick Jones II turns it on. Jones played a grand total of 99 snaps last year, partly due to knee issues early
in the year, and registered zero hurries. 🏈 Free-agent signing Harrison Phillips will be a good fit as the team’s strong-side
defensive end. Phillips blossomed as a stout run defender the last two seasons, ranking top-20 in stop rate in both years. He
is not a gap-shooter but will provide great anchorage and help eat double teams to free up second- and third-level run fitters.
🏈 Fifth-round pick Esezi Otomewo (Minnesota) is a quietly great fit who could contribute sooner rather than later. A hulking
figure at 6-foot-5 and 282 pounds, Otomewo will likely tack on a few more pounds and find a home playing 3- to 5-technique.
His blend of length, anchor, and heavy hands should allow him to be an early-down contributor early, though his pass-rushing
skill set is uninspiring right now.
168 MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Xavier Woods* 27 FS 17 1208 117 12.5% 18 33 15 9 54 24% 60 7.9 49 33 7.3% 50 15.5 52% 47 9.4 58 10 3
Harrison Smith 33 SS 15 1049 121 14.7% 6 34 10 12 57 28% 52 7.4 40 24 6.1% 60 13.0 38% 69 9.9 66 7 1
Patrick Peterson 32 CB 13 885 50 7.0% 65 21 8 7 14 50% 22 8.4 68 60 18.2% 58 10.9 53% 44 6.6 27 5 1
Mackensie Alexander* 29 CB 16 690 55 6.3% 73 24 12 7 14 43% 44 6.6 48 51 19.8% 41 9.6 57% 29 8.0 53 5 0
Cameron Dantzler 24 CB 14 686 60 7.8% 53 25 8 5 19 58% 15 5.1 27 54 21.1% 28 11.1 57% 24 5.0 5 8 1
Bashaud Breeland* 30 CB 13 675 68 9.5% 28 24 11 14 18 56% 20 4.7 19 73 29.0% 3 11.5 47% 68 8.9 76 5 2
Camryn Bynum 24 SS 14 211 27 3.5% -- 12 3 1 13 46% -- 7.4 -- 5 6.3% -- 7.6 80% -- 2.0 -- 3 1
Chandon Sullivan 26 CB 17 826 34 4.2% 80 13 10 8 3 33% 54 3.7 8 45 12.9% 78 10.9 49% 63 8.9 75 4 3

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 7 5.4% 21 -13.9% 6 17.0% 24 15.3% 28 -7.0% 7 -46.4% 1 -9.3% 11
2020 14 18.4% 28 -10.3% 9 7.8% 22 4.6% 20 7.9% 25 -15.3% 6 -24.4% 3
2021 13 12.1% 25 4.7% 22 11.6% 26 1.5% 23 17.7% 25 -3.7% 15 -15.3% 7

Cameron Dantzler arrives at a curious position this offseason. He has posted top-30 figures in coverage success rate and yards
per pass allowed in each of his two NFL seasons, yet he is fighting for his job with rookie Andrew Booth Jr. The reality is Dantzler
just doesn’t have the long speed to hang in man coverage or down the field, limiting the defense’s options. 🏈 Booth, a second-
rounder out of Clemson, is of a similar mold to Dantzler, just more athletic. Booth is a long, scrappy cornerback with great short-
area quickness. He excels working up and down the sideline, as well as squeezing windows in zone coverage. Booth underwent
sports hernia surgery he during the early part of the draft cycle. 🏈 Leaving Arizona’s man coverage schemes did wonders for
Patrick Peterson in this chapter of his career. Peterson allowed at least 7.9 yards per attempt in both 2019 and 2020 with the Car-
dinals, and even saw his success rate plummet to 43% in 2020. In Zimmer’s more zone-based approach, however, Peterson found
success by leaning a little more on his size and instincts as opposed to the speed and agility of his prime. 🏈 Statistically, Chan-
don Sullivan has gotten worse with each passing season. He recorded a 76% success rate on 21 targets in 2019 (too few targets to
qualify), falling to a still impressive 56% in 2020, then again falling to a subpar 49% in 2021. 🏈 Last year’s fourth-round pick
Cam Bynum had a surprisingly solid rookie year as he transitioned from cornerback to safety. Formerly a mean press corner, mov-
ing to safety allowed Bynum’s eyes to make up for his lack of raw speed. He played well in a rotational role, showing competence
particularly as a two-high coverage piece and tackler. 🏈 In addition to Booth and Lewis Cine, the Vikings also added Missouri
cornerback Akayleb Evans in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Evans, like Booth, has good length for the position and flashes
physicality, especially against the run, but he’ll need work in footwork and route recognition.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.8% 14 4.1 10 0.0 18 -1.4 19 6.9 6 -5.7 31 -2.8 20
2020 -9.4% 31 -15.5 32 -9.6 31 0.3 12 -13.7 31 -8.3 30 1.8 13
2021 0.4% 13 -2.0 18 1.9 15 12.7 2 -7.9 28 -2.6 25 -3.2 19

The Vikings have featured a different punt returner in each of three seasons since cutting Marcus Sherels and have ranked 25th
or worse every year. Change is on the horizon again as last year’s leading man, Dede Westbrook, is no longer with the team. 🏈
K.J. Osborn, who fielded four punts last season and seven the year before, may take over, but he has never really produced in his
limited action. Look for Ihmir Smith-Marsette as well as rookies Jalen Nailor (Michigan State, sixth round) and Thomas Hennigan
(Appalachian State, UDFA) to be in the mix during the preseason as the Vikings figure things out. 🏈 On the flip side, kick
returner is all set. Kene Nwongwu, a 2021 fourth-round running back pick and pseudo track star, led the NFL in kick return value
on just 18 attempts thanks to his pair of house calls. He has unbelievable raw speed paired with the smooth, weaving rushing style
and instincts necessary to excel on kick returns. 🏈 Backup linebacker Troy Dye registered nine tackles on punt coverage last
year, tied for third in the league. He may not have worked out as a linebacker yet, but he’s a tough player who provides clear value
on specials for the Vikings. 🏈 Greg Joseph was a significant upgrade on Dan Bailey at the kicker position. He was mediocre
as a placekicker, which was an improvement since Bailey was the worst in the league in 2020. He was also superior on kickoffs,
with positive value compared to negative value for Bailey the previous two seasons. 🏈 Minnesota’s punting situation saw a
similar overhaul by going from Britton Colquitt to former Steelers punter Jordan Berry. Berry’s gross punt value was closer to
average than Minnesota’s rank of 28th in net punt value, because the Vikings gave up more in returns than they did the year before.
 New England Patriots
2021 record: 10-7 Total DVOA: 23.3% (4) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.7 wins On the Clock (0-5): 12%
Pythagorean Wins: 12.6 (2) Offense: 10.5% (9) Postseason Odds: 45.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 35%
Snap-Weighted Age: 27.4 (2) Defense: -12.8% (4) Super Bowl Odds: 6.0% Playoff Contender (9-11): 38%
Average Opponent: -1.7% (25) Special Teams: 0.0% (18) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 1.1% (10) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 15%

2021: It only took two years after Tom Brady for the Patriots to return to the postseason—where they were historically embarrassed by the AFC East’s new
standard-bearers.

2022: No, seriously, who’s running the offense here?

W here does the time go? The Patriots have officially en-
tered Year 3 of the Post-Tom Brady era. It seemed like
no one could have envisioned the idea of Brady playing in
ing fifth among receivers in big play rate (receptions of 20-
plus yards and rushes of 10-plus) at 19.5%. Henry became
Jones’ favorite red zone target; eight of his nine touchdowns
another uniform. Now, three years since his departure, it looks came in the red zone, accounting for eight of New England’s
like no one really prepared for that possibility, either. 18 red zone touchdown receptions.
The turnover began during the pandemic-stricken season, Other signings failed to hold up their end of the bargain.
when the Patriots operated as a husk of their former selves. While Henry finished fifth among tight ends in DYAR and
A league-high 69.0 adjusted games lost due to the pandemic second in DVOA, Smith underperformed his big contract.
alone (over twice as high as any other team) made it nearly Initially, Smith was involved in both the run and pass game,
impossible for the Patriots to continue their dominant defen- generating at least five targets each of his first four weeks. He
sive stretch from the 2019 season. Their immediate successor at hit that mark just once more the rest of the season, eventually
quarterback, Cam Newton, was not signed until June 28. Learn- getting almost entirely phased out from the passing game by
ing an offense is hard enough in a normal season but doing so the end of the year. Agholor slowed down toward the end of
on short notice in a socially distanced environment only exacer- the season as well. Despite being New England’s designated
bated the issue. The skill position players in place—especially field-stretcher, Agholor finished with a DYAR of 2 (144th
at receiver—didn’t make things any easier, illustrating just how among 211 receivers) and a DVOA of -11.4% (147th) on all
good Brady had been to take this offense to a playoff game the targets of 20 or more air yards.
year prior. When all was said and done, the Patriots posted their With hopes high, 2021 ultimately resulted in a mixed bag.
worst offensive DVOA since 1999 and earned Bill Belichick New England returned to their usual spot near the top of our
his second losing season as New England head coach. DVOA ratings, finishing fourth at 23.3%, but that seemingly
After a season unlike anything we have seen from the New great performance was clouded by a 25.1% variance, third
England Patriots in the 21st century, Belichick spearheaded highest in the league. The Patriots picked up massive lopsided
the most uncharacteristic offseason of his Patriots tenure. victories against the Cleveland Browns (127.9% total DVOA),
Belichick opened the coffers, paying upwards of $320 million Tennessee Titans (94.3%), and Jacksonville Jaguars (102.1%).
for free agents and guaranteeing a record-setting $175 million Along with a win against Buffalo in gale-force winds, New
on those contracts. New England brought in the likes of Nel- England’s résumé looked a lot more impressive on paper.
son Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to join the receiver room, In the end, the Patriots won the games they were supposed
made Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith the co-third highest-paid to and lost to the teams they were supposed to—outside of
tight ends in the NFL, and added Matthew Judon and Davon some uncharacteristic-yet-almost-typical losses to the Miami
Godchaux to bolster their newly reassembled defense. Then Dolphins to bookend their season. The Patriots finished 10-
they drafted Mac Jones to take over at quarterback. All of a 7, almost exactly meeting their estimated win total of 10.1.
sudden, New England was fully reloaded just a year removed However, their variance, ability to keep losses close (every
from a rare losing season. regular-season loss was within two scores), and a few outlier
For better or worse, those offseason additions defined the high-scoring affairs led the Patriots to fall short of their mark
2021 Patriots. Jones immediately came in and was trusted of 12.6 Pythagorean wins.
enough to drop back over 600 times as a rookie, surprisingly New England secured a wild-card berth, but any cautious
producing the best debut season of the five first-round quar- optimism about making a playoff run were quickly dashed by
terbacks from that year’s draft. Judon burst onto the scene, the Buffalo Bills. The Bills had already outdueled New Eng-
enshrining himself among great New England pass-rushers by land a few weeks prior, but the wild-card game in Buffalo was
finishing tied for third all-time on the Patriots single-season an outright drubbing. The Bills scored a touchdown on each of
sack leaderboard. Bourne slowly but surely matriculated into their seven drives en route to a 47-17 final score, the biggest
the Patriots system, leading all receivers in DVOA and finish- playoff loss of Belichick’s head coaching tenure.
169
170 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2021 NE DVOA by Week

2022 Patriots Schedule
120%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp.
100%

1 at MIA 7 CHI (Mon.) 13 BUF (Thu.) 80%

2 at PIT 8 at NYJ 14 at ARI (Mon.) 60%
3 BAL 9 IND 15 at LV 40%
4 at GB 10 BYE 16 CIN (Sat.) 20%
5 DET 11 NYJ 17 MIA 0%
6 at CLE 12 at MIN (Thu.) 18 at BUF -20%
-40%
-60%
While the massive overhaul of the Patriots in 2021 saw the -80%
biggest material change to the roster thus far, the 2022 New -100%

England Patriots may have the most questions to answer of the

three post-Brady teams. Last year’s spending spree hamstrung
New England’s ability to participate in the free-agent market
this offseason. Having all that cap space tied into the likes of helped the front seven dominate run fits for years and rank
Smith and Agholor—even with Jones on a rookie deal—truly 10th in run defense DVOA last season are being replaced by
handicapped the Patriots’ ability to restock their shelves in younger, leaner bodies who can succeed in coverage as well
free agency. Sure, the team scraped together enough to bring as against the run. Three long-tenured prototypical Patriots
back old favorites such as Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater, linebackers—Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, and Jamie
and James White, but cap issues prevented them from bring- Collins—are all either free agents or signed to other teams,
ing back J.C. Jackson or signing a top-end wide receiver to signaling the end of an era in New England.
make Jones’ sophomore season run more smoothly. The winds of change began blowing early in the offseason
Jackson is obviously the biggest loss for the Patriots de- with a one-for-one swap of Chase Winovich for Cleveland’s
fense. As the clear top cornerback on the roster, Jackson was Mack Wilson. Wilson, measuring in at 6-foot-1 and 233
targeted on 87 pass attempts, seventh highest among corner- pounds, shows the transition the Patriots are making from big
backs in 2021. Despite this, Jackson still allowed just 6.1 and overpowering to smaller, more athletic builds who can
yards per pass (21st) and generated a coverage success rate cover more range. Wilson fills in the role played by the old
of 62% (11th). New England has replaced that with Houston’s guard of larger linebackers such as Hightower and Collins,
Terrance Mitchell, who finished 77th in coverage success rate, who weigh in at 260 and 255 pounds respectively. The trade
and Malcolm Butler, who did not play last year but ranked might also suggest the Patriots are comfortable with their in-
51st and 54th in success rate the previous two seasons. house options, considering they didn’t add anyone else to their
Jackson’s presence in this defense cannot be understated. front seven in free agency. They do have two technical addi-
The Patriots used five or more defensive backs on 88% of tions by absence: both 2021 free-agent signee Raekwon Mc-
defensive snaps last year. Five of the seven defensive players Millan and 2021 fifth-round draftee Cameron McGrone were
with the highest snap counts were members of the second- on the roster last year but were unable to play due to injury.
ary, with Jackson finishing second overall behind McCourty. The one linebacker who may be able to bridge the gap
Without Jackson, it will be hard for the Patriots to replicate across the two eras? Ja’Whaun Bentley. At 6-foot-2 and 255
their third-ranked pass defense DVOA from 2021. pounds, Bentley’s body type still fits the old Patriots mold.
Maybe that’s why Belichick, who typically runs man cover- While he struggled as the default top linebacker in 2020,
age at one of the highest rates in the NFL, slowly began to pivot Bentley bounced back in a big way in 2021 when surrounded
to zone coverages last year. Jalen Mills was a fine cornerback by better talent. He finished as New England’s leader in both
addition in 2021 behind Jackson, finishing 26th in success rate total tackles and forced fumbles, really getting downhill on in-
and 41st in yards per pass attempt. Those numbers came while side blitzes. Bentley also excelled in pass coverage, finishing
primarily covering secondary targets, and Mills would be mas- 10th among linebackers with 4.8 yards per pass allowed. That
sively stretched in a lead cornerback role. New England ran mix of size, athleticism, and capability in coverage could help
man coverage 36% of the time last year. While that still ranked bridge the gap if Bentley is able to step into an increased role.
fifth in the NFL, it’s a big drop-off from the 55% they played While New England’s defense is going through some per-
in 2019 when the led the league in pass defense DVOA. The sonnel changes, the offense is going through an identity crisis.
Patriots did lead the league with a -9.4% DVOA in man cov- Six-time Super Bowl champion Josh McDaniels left for a head
erage, while their zone DVOA was an equally commendable coaching opportunity in Las Vegas, and New England’s plan
fourth-best 6.6%. Matching that -9.4% figure in man is going to replace him is a big head-scratcher. Nobody in the building
to be a tall task with Jackson gone, however, so a shift to more has the title of “offensive coordinator.” The two coaches who
zone with this personnel seems likely. are expected to run the offense are Joe Judge and Matt Patricia;
The Patriots are also looking at a massive upheaval in their Judge is labeled “offensive assistant” on the Patriots’ website,
linebacker corps. The big-bodied, bruising linebackers who while Patricia is a “senior football advisor.”
 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 171

It wasn’t until May 16 that we even had an inkling of un- contested catch rate (on 25 targets) ranked 18th in the NFL
derstanding how roles would work in New England. No play- last year, according to PlayerProfiler.com.
calling duties have been established, but Judge revealed that The backfield is poised to be just as varied, with the team
he would be working with Jones and other skill position play- bringing at least six running backs to camp. Damien Harris is
ers while Patricia has been involved with the offensive line. entering a contract year, coming off a season with the fifth-best
Reports suggest Judge and Patricia are “auditioning” for play- DYAR among running backs. Harris’ patience and burst have
calling duties in practice, with Patricia currently in the lead. aided in his quick ascent to becoming New England’s lead back,
While there are additional reports that the Patriots are “sim- and his improvements as a pass-catcher and goal-line threat
plifying” their offense, there’s no indication as to whether they make him more versatile. Harris was joined by rookie Rham-
are changing their scheme altogether or just making some small ondre Stevenson, who burst onto the scene later in the season.
adjustments to streamline the offensive terminology. Former After a Week 1 fumble earned him a spot on the bench for three
Patriots fullback Jakob Johnson has said that New England did games, Harris finally saw consistent carries from Week 8 on-
not pursue him in free agency because his position won’t exist ward. Stevenson had the sixth-highest DYAR of any running
on the roster in 2022. Bourne outright said the team has a “new back. The bruising 230-pound back averaged 3.09 yards after
system” when speaking to NESN’s Zack Cox, then backtracked contact, eighth in the league. There’s also prototypical Patri-
by rephrasing as “new words, new terminology.” ots pass-catching back James White, who missed most of 2021
This indecision at offensive coordinator could pose the big- with a dislocated hip. It’s a devastating injury that may force
gest hindrance to the Patriots offense, specifically for Mac White to begin the 2022 season on the PUP list, but the Patri-
Jones. After a strong rookie campaign, Jones is looking to make ots will benefit substantially if White can take the field again.
the next step—an already difficult step made harder after Mc- White has qualified for our receiving tables six times, with four
Daniels’ departure. Filling that vacancy with two head coaches top-five rankings and never falling lower than 14th. White drew
seems even more confusing than the alternative. The good thing at least 54 targets per season over that span, and he’s the only
for Jones: his processing is already strong. He was able to flex running back in franchise history to draw over 100 targets in a
his knowledge of the offense early, operating a quick-passing single season.
attack in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Want to turn this up to 11? If you include fourth-round rook-
The weakest part of Jones’ game last year was his velocity ie Pierre Strong, the Patriots have three different skill position
on downfield passes. The Patriots adopted more outside verti- players who have thrown touchdown passes in the last two
cal routes in their passing game as the season progressed, but seasons. Even their gadget plays have optionality!
Jones seldom hit those receivers in stride. Jakobi Meyers and The problem with the 2022 Patriots is that all the variety
Agholor were often forced to either slow their pace to track comes with an uncharacteristic level of uncertainty. The de-
the ball down or get into outright contested-catch battles. At fense has shed cornerstone players on two of three levels, with
least that skill set is something that can be trained and has no roster decisions and 2021 play-calling trends suggesting both
involvement with any offensive coaching tandems. are primed for an outright overhaul. The offense lost its play-
The offensive personnel is by and large the same as it was caller of the last decade in a pivotal year for developing Mac
a year ago. The same players who got paid last offseason are Jones. The response is an all-hands-on-deck-style approach
back, along with 2021 receptions leader Meyers, a restrict- from Belichick and two former NFL head coaches—one of
ed free agent in 2022. Most of the Patriots’ draft picks were whom previously coached defense, the other special teams.
spent on skill position players expected to be depth adds and That level of open-endedness makes projecting this year’s
projects. The one material addition to this offense is DeVante Patriots a difficult task. The team known to zig when everyone
Parker, acquired in trade from Miami. The Patriots want Park- zags now has true uncertainty schematically on both sides of
er to be their missing piece, perfectly poised to contest the the ball. Even with big roster changes over the last two years,
softer vertical balls thrown by Jones. the institution was always the same. Adaptive, sure, but the
The strength of New England’s offense comes from its core had been in place for a while. McDaniels’ latest tenure
versatility. The Patriots have no dominant receiver, but each with the Patriots began in 2012, the same year Dont’a High-
wideout fills a very specific role, like Infinity Stones in Mac tower was drafted by New England. Decade-long mainstays
Jones’ gauntlet. Meyers (even though he took on a bigger ver- have been flaking off like shedding snakeskin.
tical role toward the end of the season) is best served as a The variance of outcomes feels wide-ranging with this team,
short/intermediate passing threat on crossing routes. Bourne is but our numbers project them to be very close to average this
a great do-it-all gadget guy; on top of leading all New England season. The defense takes a major step back amidst the shuf-
receivers in DYAR (228) and DVOA (30.1%), he also boasted fle, while the versatile-yet-unidentifiable offense comes back
a 140.2% DVOA on 12 rushing plays last season. Agholor is to earth without its outlier performances from 2021. As they
the designated deep threat, finishing 10th in the league in av- get farther away from the Brady years, New England has en-
erage depth of target, with 25 of his 74 targets categorized as tered into the great unknown, only tethered by the greatest
deep throws. That 33.8% share of deep targets was the biggest mind in modern football. Time will tell how much his influ-
of any Patriots receiver. (Meyers is second and technically had ence still holds in the twilight years of his coaching career.
more total deep targets: 29 of 141.) Lastly, Parker is a vertical
threat with the added specialty of contested catches. His 52% Cale Clinton
172 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2021 Patriots by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 MIA L 31% 16 17 393 259 -1 -17% 1% 15% -3% Total DVOA 10.5% 9 -12.8% 4
2 at NYJ W 97% 25 6 260 336 4 3% -29% -32% -1% Unadjusted VOA 10.8% 10 -13.8% 4
3 NO L 1% 13 28 300 252 -3 -46% -19% 19% -8% Weighted Trend 16.5% 5 -14.8% 4
4 TB L 57% 17 19 294 381 -2 34% 18% -15% 2% Variance 10.7% 27 8.8% 26
5 at HOU W 57% 25 22 352 360 -1 -26% -6% 22% 2% Average Opponent -1.5% 9 -2.7% 29
6 DAL L 23% 29 35 335 567 0 18% 22% 1% -3%
7 NYJ W 100% 54 13 551 299 3 50% 38% -5% 7% Passing 24.7% 10 -12.6% 3
8 at LAC W 77% 27 24 352 369 1 17% -16% -18% 15% Rushing 4.9% 7 -13.1% 10
9 at CAR W 100% 24 6 273 240 1 22% -25% -54% -6%
First Down 18.3% 3 3.0% 18
10 CLE W 100% 45 7 452 217 1 128% 73% -48% 7%
Second Down 5.8% 13 -20.6% 2
11 at ATL W 100% 25 0 308 165 3 72% -9% -79% 1%
Third Down 2.6% 17 -27.5% 1
12 TEN W 100% 36 13 394 355 4 94% 60% -22% 13%
13 at BUF W 80% 14 10 241 230 0 20% 5% -19% -3% First Half 8.9% 8 -10.5% 7
14 BYE Second Half 12.1% 7 -15.4% 3
15 at IND L 38% 17 27 365 275 -1 -44% -36% -21% -29%
16 BUF L 1% 21 33 288 428 -2 3% 27% 20% -5% Red Zone 20.1% 3 -30.9% 1
17 JAX W 100% 50 10 471 253 3 102% 58% -41% 3% Late and Close 2.6% 18 13.5% 28
18 at MIA L 55% 24 33 379 298 -3 2% 16% 21% 7%
19 at BUF L 0% 17 47 305 482 -2 -98% -8% 85% -5%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 13-3 12.0 10.8 458 296 +6 22.2% 6 27.9% 1 12.0% 31 6.3% 3 37.0 18 26.7 11 27.7 3 26.3 15 26.7 3
2018 11-5 10.8 9.9 436 325 +10 13.5% 7 14.7% 5 1.4% 19 0.1% 16 40.0 18 35.2 18 28.5 1 27.2 5 27.9 1
2019 12-4 13.1 12.3 420 225 +21 30.7% 3 4.3% 11 -25.2% 1 1.2% 11 69.7 30 11.4 1 29.3 1 28.2 1 27.9 1
2020 7-9 7.2 7.3 326 353 +3 -7.1% 22 -7.3% 23 7.9% 26 8.1% 1 83.5 31 51.3 23 26.4 23 27.3 3 27.5 1
2021 10-7 12.6 10.1 462 303 +7 23.3% 4 10.5% 9 -12.8% 4 0.0% 18 39.2 11 36.5 17 26.4 19 27.8 1 28.7 1

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

NE Offense NE Offense vs. Opponents NE Defense NE Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 54% 6.4 29.8% 27% Base 31% 5.2 -0.2% 65% Base 11% 5.3 -5.1% 11 53% 5.7 -17.3%
21 19% 5.1 -7.6% 62% Nickel 58% 6.3 19.1% 37% Nickel 66% 5.5 -5.1% 12 26% 4.6 -9.6%
12 14% 6.2 -9.9% 49% Dime+ 9% 6.7 55.5% 4% Dime+ 22% 5.1 -43.2% 21 6% 4.0 -32.3%
621 4% 5.5 37.7% 98% Goal Line 1% 0.3 30.8% 87% Goal Line 0% 0.4 -98.9% 13 4% 6.3 29.4%
22 3% 5.4 19.6% 79% 611 2% 7.6 -5.9%
22 2% 4.4 -35.0%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 42% 7 Form: Single Back 70% 29 Rush 3 17.8% 1 4 DB 11% 30 Play Action 28% 14
Runs, first down 52% 8 Form: Empty Back 4% 31 Rush 4 63.2% 26 5 DB 66% 11 Offensive Motion 55% 4
Runs, second-long 29% 17 Form: Multi Back 26% 1 Rush 5 16.4% 25 6+ DB 22% 8 Avg Box (Off) 6.87 1
Runs, power sit. 66% 10 Pers: 3+ WR 55% 26 Rush 6+ 2.6% 27 Man Coverage 36% 5 Avg Box (Def) 6.65 8
Runs, behind 2H 35% 7 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 26% 22 Edge Rusher Sacks 68.1% 5 CB by Sides 58% 29 Offensive Pace 32.57 27
Pass, ahead 2H 44% 22 Pers: 6+ OL 10% 3 Interior DL Sacks 19.4% 22 S/CB Cover Ratio 28% 15 Defensive Pace 30.59 9
Run-Pass Options 1% 32 Shotgun/Pistol 48% 30 Second Level Sacks 12.5% 21 DB Blitz 8% 21 Go for it on 4th 0.76 29
 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 173

The Patriots ran more often against heavy boxes (eight or more) than any other offense, 41% of carries. They gained just 4.0
yards per carry on these runs compared to 4.9 yards per carry against six or seven in the box, but had a higher DVOA against
the heavy boxes, 7.7% compared to 0.3% otherwise. 🏈 New England was third with just 14 dropped passes last season.
🏈 The Patriots tied the Jets for last place (16%) in how often they threw to the player we had tagged as the No. 1 receiver, in
this case Nelson Agholor. 🏈 New England had 8.2 yards per pass with 80.7% DVOA on running back screens. 🏈 The
Patriots ranked second in offensive DVOA at home but 23rd on the road. We mention this purely for curiosity’s sake, as these
kinds of home/road splits rarely carry over from year to year. The defense was opposite, better on the road (second in DVOA)
than at home (10th). 🏈 This was the second straight year the Patriots led the league in sending just three pass-rushers. 🏈
New England is always one of the best tackling defenses in the league and last year was no exception; only Green Bay and
Washington had fewer broken tackles. This was the fifth straight season where the Patriots ranked in the top five for fewest
broken tackles on defense. 🏈 New England had the best defensive DVOA in the league (-43.2%) with dime personnel (min.
100 plays). 🏈 The Patriots had the league’s third-largest gap in the average yardage on plays by the two starting safeties,
showing how Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips (or Kyle Dugger) were used in very different ways. 🏈 The Patriots
ranked fourth in DVOA against deep passes (16 or more air yards), the third straight year they have been in the top five for
that metric. But the Patriots also ranked second in DVOA against short passes (up to 15 air yards). 🏈 The Patriots led the
league with a 29% pressure rate when sending the standard four pass-rushers but were just average at 35% when blitzing. By
DVOA, only Buffalo had a better defense when sending four pass-rushers. 🏈 New England opponents targeted tight ends
on a league-low 16% of passes. 🏈 The Patriots had a very strange split where they ranked 30th in defensive DVOA in the
first quarter and then had the best defense in the league from the second quarter onwards.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
M.Jones 620 6.1% 548 3550 6.5 5.0 67.8% 22 13 J.Meyers 21 -10.6% 126 83 866 10.4 2.7 2 66%
B.Hoyer 155 204.5% 11 227 20.6 15.9 81.8% 1 0 K.Bourne 228 30.1% 70 55 800 14.5 7.0 5 79%
N.Agholor 60 -1.3% 64 37 473 12.8 2.8 3 58%
N.Harry 26 1.9% 22 12 184 15.3 2.1 0 55%
Rushing K.Wilkerson 5 -5.8% 8 4 42 10.5 1.3 2 50%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc D.Parker 74 0.0% 73 40 515 12.9 2.6 2 55%
D.Harris 175 10.8% 202 929 4.6 15 2 54% T.Montgomery -63 -44.5% 26 16 95 5.9 5.4 0 62%
R.Stevenson 97 8.8% 133 606 4.6 5 1 59% L.Humphrey 99 62.6% 18 13 249 19.2 7.8 2 72%
B.Bolden* 8 -4.1% 44 226 5.1 1 1 41% H.Henry 174 25.8% 75 50 603 12.1 2.9 9 67%
M.Jones -15 -18.3% 36 136 3.8 0 3 - J.Smith -63 -28.6% 45 28 294 10.5 8.3 1 62%
J.J.Taylor -25 -37.5% 19 37 1.9 2 0 26% B.Bolden* 156 46.4% 49 41 405 9.9 10.1 2 84%
K.Bourne 90 140.2% 12 125 10.4 0 0 - D.Harris 50 31.5% 21 18 132 7.3 7.4 0 86%
J.White 15 20.4% 10 38 3.8 1 0 60% R.Stevenson 5 -9.2% 18 14 123 8.8 10.4 0 78%
J.Smith 26 44.5% 9 40 4.4 0 0 - J.White 11 0.2% 14 12 94 7.8 5.8 0 86%
T.Montgomery -9 -48.6% 15 44 2.9 0 0 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
David Andrews C 30 17/17 1091 3 3.0 9 5 Michael Onwenu LG/RT 25 16/8 648 3 1.0 4 2
Shaquille Mason* RG 29 15/15 957 4 0.0 6 6 Trenton Brown RT 29 9/9 490 1 0.5 4 4
Isaiah Wynn LT 27 16/15 916 9 4.0 16 7 Justin Herron LT/RT 27 16/4 394 2 1.0 7 0
Ted Karras* LG 29 17/13 832 2 1.0 7 8

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.90 4.49 9 65% 17 21% 24 1.19 16 0.49 28 8.2% 5 28 5.3% 5 24.7% 2 14.9% 25 28
2020 4.82 4.94 3 78% 4 14% 3 1.38 4 0.81 13 6.7% 2 37 8.0% 28 25.2% 18 10.4% 9 27
2021 4.50 4.52 9 77% 4 18% 23 1.32 5 0.82 7 8.1% 4 28 5.4% 8 21.5% 5 10.4% 4 32
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.86 (9) Left Tackle: 3.81 (25) Mid/Guard: 4.47 (9) Right Tackle: 3.95 (22) Right End: 6.62 (2)

Switching from Cam Newton to Mac Jones helped the offensive line tremendously, seeing as sacks are heavily influenced by
quarterback play. The Patriots’ blown block rate stayed the same while their pressure rate and adjusted sack rate both improved.
174 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots were at the bottom of the league with just three “non-pressure” sacks all season: two marked as coverage sacks
and one where Mac Jones just dropped the ball on his own. 🏈 After sitting out the 2019 season because of blood clots and
missing time with an injured hand in 2020, David Andrews put on an ironman performance in 2021. Andrews led the team in
total snaps, playing 98.6% of all offensive snaps. 🏈 Homecoming was good for Trent Brown. After the Patriots re-acquired
him from the Las Vegas Raiders last offseason, Brown posted a blown block rate of 1.7% the second-lowest mark of his career.
The only season to beat it: his first season in New England. 🏈 Isaiah Wynn took on his biggest role yet as a member of
the Patriots, playing a personal-high 858 snaps. The increase in reps came with some definite growing pains: Wynn set new
career highs with 23 blown blocks and six sacks allowed, both numbers leading the team in 2021. However, his 2.7% blown
block rate was only a small rise over 2020 and well below his 2019 rate of 4.0%. 🏈 After an impressive rookie campaign,
Michael Onwenu took on a rotational role in 2021, plugging holes at both guard spots and right tackle. Onwenu’s 1.0% blown
block rate was fourth among guards with a minimum 400 snaps played, and he’s penciled in to start at right guard in 2022.
🏈 The Patriots surprised everyone on draft night, taking Tennessee-Chattanooga’s Cole Strange with the 29th overall pick.
While there are some questions about how Strange will translate from FCS to the NFL, one undeniable aspect of his game is
his athleticism. At 6-foot-4 and 307 pounds, Strange posted a 10-foot broad jump, 5.03s 40-yard dash, and 31-rep bench press
during his pre-draft testing. Strange’s 9.95 relative athletic score (tracked by Kent Lee Platte at RAS.football) ranks seventh of
1,298 offensive guards dating back to 1987. 🏈 At minicamp, the Patriots flipped their tackles with Brown now on the left
and Wynn on the right. As Matt Chatham surmised on Twitter, this is probably a reaction to the dramatic size contrast between
the Patriots’ linemen. The New England offensive line will now be more balanced with one athletic lineman on each side (Wynn
and Strange) and one big nasty on each side (Brown and Onwenu).

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Davon Godchaux 28 DT 17 639 65 7.7% 11 38 3 3 64 58% 84 2.9 69 1.0 4 11 0
Christian Barmore 23 DT 17 598 48 5.7% 45 33 5 6 43 65% 70 3.0 73 1.5 8 29 2
Lawrence Guy 32 DT 17 530 60 7.1% 17 41 6 5 57 67% 58 2.7 58 1.5 4 10 0
Carl Davis 30 DT 17 276 19 2.2% -- 13 2 0 18 67% -- 3.0 -- 1.0 0 2 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Matt Judon 30 OLB 17 877 61 7.2% 16 49 22 9 43 79% 23 2.9 65 12.5 13 39 1
Kyle Van Noy* 31 OLB 16 810 76 9.5% 2 45 17 7 44 52% 93 3.7 85 5.0 2 20 5
Deatrich Wise 28 DE 16 521 45 5.6% 42 34 11 2 37 70% 53 2.9 67 3.0 6 13 4
Josh Uche 24 OLB 12 236 12 2.0% -- 7 4 0 6 33% -- 8.7 -- 3.0 2 9 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Ja'Whaun Bentley 26 ILB 16 691 109 13.6% 34 48 10 7 73 52% 58 3.5 26 1.0 4 8 22 59% 16 4.8 10 2 0
Dont'a Hightower* 32 OLB 15 634 65 8.7% 69 31 11 14 35 63% 22 2.7 3 1.5 2 12 22 27% 70 6.9 45 1 0
Jamie Collins* 33 ILB 12 300 33 5.5% 83 21 11 2 20 75% 2 2.8 4 1.0 2 8 5 20% -- 10.0 -- 3 1
Mack Wilson 24 OLB 14 194 33 4.7% -- 16 1 3 26 58% -- 3.7 -- 0.0 0 0 6 67% -- 4.7 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.06 3.99 6 60% 10 18% 20 1.00 5 0.68 13 8.3% 31 47 7.7% 8 37.1% 1 16.3% 6
2020 4.65 5.00 31 75% 30 10% 32 1.33 25 0.55 7 9.0% 30 24 5.2% 26 28.9% 8 12.7% 20
2021 4.51 4.45 22 63% 9 14% 23 1.05 8 0.88 28 12.3% 18 36 6.8% 14 28.4% 7 17.8% 2
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.92 (23) Left Tackle: 4.98 (26) Mid/Guard: 4.46 (22) Right Tackle: 3.73 (8) Right End: 4.26 (15)

New England finished fifth in the NFL with 68% of their sacks coming from their edge rushers. Matthew Judon had more
than half of those edge rusher sacks and 35% of all Patriots sacks, second only to T.J. Watt’s sack share with the Steelers. 🏈
Judon boasted the best four-game stretch of his career with New England, earning 6.5 sacks between Weeks 2 and 5. But he also
accrued all 12.5 sacks before the Patriots Week 14 bye, failing to take down the quarterback in the Patriots’ final four games.
🏈 We noted above that the Patriots were at the bottom of the league in “non-pressure” sacks on offense. They were also at
the bottom of the league on defense, with just 17% of their sacks coming for “non-pressure” reasons. 🏈 Christian Barmore
put up an impressive rookie campaign as a pass-rushing defensive tackle, tied for eighth among interior defensive linemen with
 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 175

29 hurries. 🏈 Model of consistency Lawrence Guy extended his five-year streak recording at least 35 run stops. 🏈 Off
the heels of a productive rookie season, Josh Uche failed to carve out a prominent role in the Patriots defense. Uche played just
22% of defensive snaps on the season and all three of his sacks came in the first two games. 🏈 Mack Wilson served as a
rotational off-ball linebacker in Cleveland for three years, slowly watching his playing time diminish. Since joining the Patriots,
Wilson has repeatedly brought up how excited he is to return to a system more similar to what he played in at Alabama.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Devin McCourty 35 FS 17 1019 69 8.1% 62 14 10 6 28 11% 74 12.1 75 17 4.6% 67 12.6 71% 1 4.1 4 10 3
J.C. Jackson* 27 CB 17 945 81 9.5% 24 39 23 13 19 37% 50 12.7 80 87 25.1% 8 11.5 62% 11 6.1 21 23 8
Jalen Mills 28 CB 16 913 54 6.8% 69 23 12 5 16 44% 43 4.9 22 49 14.7% 75 12.4 57% 26 7.2 41 7 0
Adrian Phillips 30 SS 17 882 96 11.3% 28 51 19 7 48 60% 5 4.0 5 37 11.5% 15 7.3 54% 40 5.8 17 9 4
Kyle Dugger 26 SS 15 733 89 11.9% 24 40 16 8 45 60% 6 3.9 4 31 11.6% 14 9.9 58% 31 5.2 10 5 4
Myles Bryant 24 CB 12 406 44 7.3% -- 15 11 4 7 29% -- 3.3 -- 30 20.2% -- 8.0 47% -- 8.4 -- 3 1
Joejuan Williams 25 CB 12 254 25 4.2% -- 9 4 0 8 25% -- 9.4 -- 17 18.3% -- 15.5 53% -- 8.2 -- 5 0
Jonathan Jones 29 CB 6 225 21 7.0% -- 8 6 2 5 20% -- 9.8 -- 26 31.6% -- 10.9 54% -- 7.0 -- 3 1
Terrance Mitchell 30 CB 14 796 69 9.3% 33 21 8 13 24 29% 61 10.8 77 62 22.5% 22 11.5 42% 77 8.3 61 10 1
Jabrill Peppers 27 SS 6 229 30 9.0% -- 12 5 3 4 100% -- 0.8 -- 18 21.2% -- 7.6 33% -- 10.2 -- 1 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 1 -34.5% 1 -49.9% 1 -40.1% 1 -46.3% 2 -38.4% 1 -10.6% 7 3.5% 21
2020 18 -13.9% 7 -2.8% 14 -3.3% 13 -10.9% 8 -3.7% 15 -11.8% 9 -6.8% 10
2021 3 -33.3% 2 -18.4% 4 -15.2% 5 -28.5% 3 -17.5% 3 -43.4% 1 28.1% 29

The loss of J.C. Jackson cannot be understated. Jackson led the league in pass breakups and finished second in interceptions,
mostly matching up against offenses’ top receivers. New England finished with a -33.3% DVOA against No. 1 wideouts, second
in the league. 🏈 The incumbent in-house candidate to replace Jackson as top cornerback is Jalen Mills, who had one of
the better seasons of his career last year. Mills allowed a career-low completion percentage while recording a personal-best 14
pass breakups. One flaw in his game: those pass breakups don’t translate to turnovers. Mills didn’t register a single interception
in 2021 and has just five in six seasons. By comparison, it took Jackson nine weeks to register five interceptions in 2021. 🏈
Terrance Mitchell is coming off of one of his weakest seasons as a starter. Mitchell allowed his highest completion percentage
as a starter and the third-highest yards per target mark of his career. 🏈 Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler returns to
New England. Though he did not play in 2021, Butler’s last season in 2020 saw the most volume in his career. Butler surpassed
1,000 snaps while allowing the second-lowest yards per target of his career. 🏈 Jonathan Jones had carved out a sizeable
role in the Patriots defense before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Jones played 54% of defensive snaps
through the first six weeks, but he was mostly relegated to slot corner. When placed on the outside, Jones typically gives his
assigned receiver a big cushion pre-snap because he tends to get beaten over the top by faster wideouts. 🏈 Devin McCourty
led all safeties with a 71% success rate and finished fourth in yards per pass allowed. At age 34, McCourty allowed the lowest
completion rate in coverage of any safety since at least 2015. 🏈 Kyle Dugger has the physicality and size to match up with
tight ends, a big reason the Patriots led the league in DVOA against them. 🏈 Dugger and Adrian Phillips also dominated
in the robber role for the Patriots, finishing fourth and fifth among safeties, respectively, in average depth of run tackles. 🏈
Fourth-round pick Jack Jones was turning heads at Patriots minicamp, with ESPN’s Mike Reiss suggesting he has already put
himself in a position to compete for a starting job at cornerback. One of Jones’ most impressive traits is his ability to play bigger
than his 175-pound frame suggests. He finished his last season at Arizona State with three forced fumbles, three interceptions,
six pass breakups, and a blocked kick.
176 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 1.2% 11 -9.7 30 5.0 7 -0.9 15 10.5 3 1.2 11 6.9 4
2020 8.1% 1 5.6 9 5.2 6 -2.6 20 18.9 1 13.5 1 -5.2 22
2021 -0.04% 18 7.0 7 1.6 16 -1.9 20 -9.4 31 2.6 7 19.1 2

Last season we saw the end of one of the most remarkable streaks in the history of Football Outsiders metrics. One year after
they had led the league in special teams DVOA for the first time, the New England Patriots had below-average special teams
(technically, -0.04% DVOA) for the first time since 1995. That streak lasted not only through the entire Bill Belichick era but
also the entire Pete Carroll era before it. New England’s streak of 25 years with positive special teams is over twice as long as
the next-longest streak: Cleveland from 2004 to 2015. The Patriots were below average by the tiniest of margins, which means
their streak could be “reinstated” depending on future revisions to our special teams formulas. 🏈 The collapse of punter Jake
Bailey was the biggest reason for the end of the streak. In 2020, Bailey was the best punter in the league based on both net and
gross value. In 2021, Bailey finished second worst in net value and third worst in gross value. Only Ty Long of the Chargers
was worse in both metrics. Punting is usually the most consistent element of special teams from year to year, but not always. It’s
hard to know what to expect from Bailey in 2022; he’ll have a camp battle with undrafted rookie Jake Julien, who averaged 44.0
yards per punt at Eastern Michigan. 🏈 For the first time in his career, Nick Folk was perfect on field goal attempts inside
of 50 yards, going 31-for-31 on kicks from that distance. Folk also set new personal highs for total field goals (36) and field
goals of 50 or more yards (five). 🏈 Third-round draftee Marcus Jones may sit behind Jonathan Jones at slot corner in his
first year, but he can make an immediate impact as a return man. Jones averaged 34.0 yards per kick return and 14.3 yards per
punt return his final year at Houston, taking a combined four touchdowns to the house. 🏈 New England’s high value in hid-
den special teams is driven by good luck on opposing field goals and extra points. Patriots opponents scored 18.1 fewer points
than expected; no other team was below -10 points. Opponents only connected on 22 of 33 field goal attempts, including three
misses under 40 yards. They also missed three of 30 extra point tries. This is not a trend that’s likely to carry over into 2022.
 New Orleans Saints
2021 record: 9-8 Total DVOA: 4.7% (14) 2022 Mean Projection: 9.4 wins On the Clock (0-5): 8%
Pythagorean Wins: 9.4 (14) Offense: -10.6% (23) Postseason Odds: 57.7% Mediocrity (6-8): 28%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.6 (13) Defense: -15.0% (3) Super Bowl Odds: 9.5% Playoff Contender (9-11): 42%
Average Opponent: -0.9% (23) Special Teams: 0.3% (16) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.2% (14) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 22%

2021: Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas hurt? Taysom Hill in? You shall not pass!

2022: Worry about the salary cap? It’s the job that’s never started that takes longest to finish.

W hen the book finally closes on the history of the New

Orleans Saints, 2021 is going to be remembered as a
very strange transitional year. Sean Payton and Drew Brees
a new era starting in 2023, likely with one of next year’s top
quarterback prospects.
But then again, if more teams valued talent and skill above
are inextricably linked together in franchise lore and imagin- hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world. The Saints chose
ing one without the other is almost unthinkable. They came in not to address their financial issues and instead took another
together in 2006 and shared the bad times together—Bounty- ride on the salary cap merry-go-round. They brought the ma-
gate, years of terrible defense, heartbreaking playoff perfor- jority of the team back together for one more year, pushing
mance after heartbreaking playoff performance. They shared money even further in the future for the chance to run 2021
the good times together—revitalizing the city after Katrina, back. They traded away cost-effective mid-round draft picks
shattering offensive records, and winning the Super Bowl. It’s in order to add multiple first-round talents to the roster. They
the One Ring that binds them together. So, Payton’s tenure even lit the beacons and called for aid in free agency, carving
lasting one year without Brees feels strange and vestigial. out more room for Jarvis Landry and Tyrann Mathieu.
The Saints’ history book will treat Payton’s last year like Tom New Orleans restructured or extended Michael Thomas,
Bombadil’s chapters in Lord of the Rings—a bit odd and out Ryan Ramczyk, Andrus Peat, Cameron Jordan, Tanoh Kpas-
of place, and we’re just not going to mention it when we adapt sagnon, Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Dav-
this for unfamiliar audiences. enport, Bradley Roby, David Onyemata, and James Hurst,
And, much like Tom Bombadil, the 2021 Saints deserve to shunting millions of dollars into the future but also keeping
be better remembered, even if they don’t fit well into the nar- nearly the entire Fellowship intact for one more run. The only
rative. Despite leaving the safety and familiarity of the Shire player they lost who played more than 50% of last season’s
Brees’ tenure, the Saints remained a competitive team. They snaps was Marcus Williams; the only other significant free
were minutes away from making the playoffs despite fighting agent who left was Terron Armstead. They even kept continu-
through 76.5 offensive adjusted games lost, second most in the ity in the coaching staff, promoting Dennis Allen from within
league. They found a season of respite and continuity, despite and letting Pete Carmichael stay as offensive coordinator.
the looming terror on the horizon—the dreaded Nazgûl salary The price of doing this, of course, is restricting what the
cap apocalypse. They delayed making momentous decisions team can do in the future. It was well publicized that the Saints
on how to proceed with their quest of destroying the One Ring were more than $100 million over the cap before 2021 and
winning the Super Bowl. They even had a strange man, whose $80 million over the cap entering this offseason; they’re also
role was never really made clear, inexplicably beloved by the already $58 million over the cap for 2023, most in the league.
guy in charge, running around without any clear reason why These numbers can be misleading, however. Under Mickey
he was there. Ring a dong dillo Taysom Hill, indeed. Loomis, the Saints have been very aggressive managing the
But short of Sean Payton the White returning next season, salary cap, rarely guaranteeing salaries and instead using sign-
the Saints find themselves at a crossroads. Replacing the best ing bonuses and void years to push cap hits into future years.
quarterback and coach in franchise history is a logical time to These dead-cap numbers include what players were scheduled
take a step back and rebuild. The Saints had stretched their to make, but the Saints structure their contracts so they can
budget thinly over too much bread, using every cap trick in move things around easily. They had over $100 million in po-
the book to dump money into the future to keep the core of the tential restructures entering the offseason, $30 million more
team around for Payton’s final seasons in charge. The Saints than any other team. The Saints have been meddling in the
entered the offseason $76 million over the salary cap. That affairs of capologists, but they have so far had the situation
number was always a bit inflated, with potential extensions under control.
and restructures worked in from the beginning, but the cost The problem is they’re running out of tricks. The Saints
has to come due sooner rather than later. The Saints could already have $84 million in prorated bonus money counting
have tightened their belts, taken their medicine, and suffered against the 2023 cap. They have $264.8 million in bonuses
through one cap-ravaged year. That would clear the books for and guarantees on the books from 2023 forward, third most
177
178 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

2021 NO DVOA by Week

2022 Saints Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at ATL 7 at ARI (Thu.) 13 at TB (Mon.)
2 TB 8 LV 14 BYE 40%
3 at CAR 9 BAL (Mon.) 15 ATL 20%
4 MIN (U.K.) 10 at PIT 16 at CLE (Sat.)
0%
5 SEA 11 LAR 17 at PHI
6 CIN 12 at SF 18 CAR -20%

-40%

-60%

for any team in the league. And most of the teams ahead of -80%

them are there because they have a quarterback signed to a -100%

massive, long-term extension. Take quarterbacks out of the

equation, and you begin to see what all this restructuring has
done to New Orleans’ future (Table 1).
mental question plaguing this team: Is there a reason to be-
Table 1: Future Guaranteed Money lieve that the Saints, as currently constructed, can be in that
Buccaneers/Bills tier and contend for a championship? Are
Team 2023 2024 2025 2026+ Total Non-QB they just delaying the inevitable by not taking their medicine
PHI $139.7 $85.0 $66.7 $63.8 $355.2 $354.7 and clearing their books during a transitional year?
NO $149.7 $74.4 $52.3 $31.1 $307.5 $296.0 On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints are absolutely
CLE $168.6 $109.8 $91.5 $86.1 $456.0 $236.0 top-tier contenders; we have them projected as the best defense
CAR $147.2 $46.6 $26.7 $2.9 $223.4 $223.4 in the league this season. It’s not at all surprising that New Or-
JAX $167.4 $58.0 $22.4 $0.1 $247.9 $226.1 leans would have tabbed Allen for the open coaching position.
MIA $143.8 $41.6 $19.0 $19.7 $224.1 $214.4 The Saints’ defense was a laughingstock before Allen arrived in
TB $131.0 $50.3 $39.3 $18.2 $238.8 $203.0 2015, but they have since become a model of consistency, one
BUF $141.9 $71.8 $34.9 $28.6 $262.3 $181.7 of just three defenses to have above-average DVOA in each of
LAC $124.0 $43.4 $12.7 $5.0 $185.1 $176.6 the last five years. It will be interesting to see how the shift in
BAL $89.0 $45.9 $21.5 $6.7 $163.0 $163.0 responsibility affects Allen’s defense, as he’s usually praised for
All numbers as of June 7, 2022. his attention to detail and ability to go with the flow of a game.
Having to spend his time running the whole team may take
The Eagles beat out the Saints after their A.J. Brown trade, away from that. Allen’s two years as a head coach in Oakland
but their roster is also set. Philadelphia has 52 players under saw his defenses fall to 28th and 30th in DVOA, compiling an
contract for 2023 compared to the Saints’ 38, and about 40% 8-28 record. Admittedly, there were other challenges, with the
more players under contract than New Orleans in general for Raiders experiencing uncertainty at the quarterback position
the next three seasons. The Saints haven’t even begun to ad- and a bad salary cap situation, which … oh.
dress their future cap situation. Still, that was nearly a decade ago, and Allen should be
Spending future money is not, in and of itself, a bad idea. better prepared for the gig than he was back then. However,
Teams such as the Buccaneers and Bills are trying to maxi- some people serve much better as stewards than kings. This
mize championship windows, willing to accept financial pain go-round, Allen is planning on calling the defensive plays
tomorrow for short-term gains today. Teams such as the Jag- himself, leaving co-coordinators Kris Richard and Ryan Niel-
uars or Dolphins went on free agent-signing sprees this off- son to fill in the gaps when he’s busy with his overall head
season, building their cores for the rest of their quarterbacks’ coaching responsibilities. The Saints are stressing continuity
cheap contracts. and familiarity on the defensive side of the ball this season,
The Saints aren’t in either of those boats. They weren’t turn- but so do all teams that make such a move. A shakeup like
ing cap space into new players; they were shoveling money moving Allen into the top job is still a shakeup.
into the future to keep the current core together. And that core Regardless of any calls for continuity, Allen’s defense will
didn’t even make the playoffs last year, much less contend have to look different on the back end. Marcus Williams was
for a championship. It’s not worth mortgaging the future for a one of the victims of New Orleans’ lack of salary mobility,
team that’s going to go one-and-done in the postseason. De- signing a $14-million deal with the Ravens. Add Malcolm
laying the financial ramifications of all this constant restruc- Jenkins’ retirement and the Saints needed to replace both of
turing is only worth it if the Saints can contend for champi- their starting safeties. Enter Tyrann Mathieu, long rumored
onships as currently structured. And taking shortcuts to deal to be intrigued about playing for his hometown Saints team.
with their money troubles now will surely lead to long delays Replacing Williams with Matthieu as the top safety is very
in the future. interesting, because while both are top-flight players at their
Lacking the Mirror of Galadriel, we’re left with the funda- positions, they’re really used differently.
 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 179

Last season, Williams was clearly the cover free safety, was rarely together either—significant absences for Andrus
rarely lining up in the box, while Jenkins was the strong safety Peat, Landon Young, Ryan Ramcyzk, Terron Armstead, and
creeping up towards the line; there was a pretty clear demar- Erik McCoy meant that the Saints had the worst offensive line
cation of roles. But Mathieu and the other addition, Marcus continuity score in the league in 2021. That helped drop them
Maye, are more interchangeable parts. Both Maye and Ma- into the bottom 10 in adjusted sack rate, a far cry from the
thieu have experience at both strong and free safety and each protection Drew Brees had become accustomed to receiving.
can handle either role roughly equally well. So while going The optimist’s view is that Winston and Thomas can be re-
from Williams and Jenkins to Mathieu and Maye is at best a forged like Andúril, and that the offense that was broken shall
lateral move in terms of overall talent, it opens up intriguing once again reign. With Winston, the Saints’ offensive DVOA
matchup possibilities, with both safeties being moved around was 1.8%; without him, it was -18.9%. Their passing DVOA
like chess pieces to confuse opposing offenses and work the fell from 27.6% to -6.4%. Even their running DVOA fell, al-
best possible matchups at any given point. Allen said this beit from a poor -12.5% to an even poorer -22.5%. Had the
offseason that getting that sort of flexibility out of his safe- Saints been able to pair their No. 3 defense with what would
ties would be a perfect-world scenario, so this is an exciting have been the No. 17 offense, surely they would have been
change to what was already a successful status quo. able to find the extra win that would have had them in the
Add in Marshawn Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, and Chaunc- postseason. According to our Post-Game Win Expectancy for-
ey Gardner-Johnson, and the Saints have an argument as the mula, they were good enough to beat the Falcons and Titans in
best secondary in the league. That level of talent is reflected November, even with Siemian under center. The Saints were
on the other levels of the defense as well. Losing Kwon Al- unfortunate to be sitting at home in January; their true talent
exander hurts a bit, but Pete Werner was a very solid replace- level was greater than that.
ment in his rookie season, and only four defenses used dime And now they have added two first-round picks to the of-
personnel more often than New Orleans in 2021. When run- fense in Chris Olave and Trevor Penning, both of whom come
ning backs occasionally slipped through Shy Tuttle or David in positions of need and should provide an immediate impact.
Onyemata, they were inevitably snuffed out by Werner, De- Give Winston a full season with a fully functional receiving
mario Davis, or Cameron Jordan, who led all edge rushers in corps and offensive line and the Saints’ offense should take
ESPN’s run stop rate last season. Allen’s defenses simply do off—not to prime Brees/Payton levels, mind you, but it should
not let running backs turn medium gains into large ones; they be a good unit that doesn’t drag the defense down. Will that be
have ranked in the top five in second-level yards in each of the good enough to top the Dark Lord Brady and the Buccaneers,
last four years. If you can’t run on the Saints, and you can’t winning the NFC South? Maybe not in total, although the
pass on the Saints, you’re out of options. Saints do have a habit of giving the Bucs more trouble than
Of course, if you’re a Saints fan looking for pessimism, you they expect. But it should, at the very least, vault them to the
have been angrily awaiting us to get to the offensive side of top of the wild-card hunt. And once you’re in the tournament,
the ball already. The defense is going to rank somewhere be- there’s no knowing where you might be swept off to.
tween good and excellent, depending on the breaks. The of- The potential here is more than just a fool’s hope; our mean
fense has a much wider range of outcomes and will be what projection has New Orleans roughly dead average on offense.
ultimately shapes the fortunes of all. The model is seeing a good (but not great) quarterback pro-
The path for optimism is clear-cut. The Saints offense was jection, combined with one bad year of offense following up
both good and unlucky last season, a combination that gener- multiple good years. That’s usually indicative of a good team
ally bodes well in future years. that suffered some setbacks; if you have solid quarterback
As mentioned earlier, only Baltimore had more offensive play and a history of success, you shouldn’t expect to struggle
adjusted games lost than New Orleans in 2021. Before he got in the future.
hurt, quarterback Jameis Winston was faring far better than For that to happen, though, there’s a lot that needs to go
his 30-interception finale in Tampa Bay would have led one right. And it starts at the very top.
to expect. His 13.6% passing DVOA would have ranked 10th Sean Payton was good at his job—another one of those
in the league had a knee injury not ended his season before he classic insights you can only get from Football Outsiders.
could qualify for the leaderboards. The three-headed monster In some aspects, 2021 might have been his finest offensive
of Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book didn’t stand a coaching performance. Anyone would have success with
chance of replicating Winston’s performance. There’s a rea- a Hall of Famer such as Drew Brees under center, but true
son the team went out and signed Andy Dalton to avoid hav- coaching shows itself under adversity. Strip away not only a
ing to have any of those three be the backup option this year. Hall of Fame quarterback but also his solid replacement from
And at least the Saints got half a season out of Winston. Mi- a roster, then take away their best skill position player and
chael Thomas missed the whole year as complications from randomly draw the names of offensive linemen out of a hat,
his 2020 high ankle sprain kept getting worse and worse, re- and it would have been more than justified for the Saints to
quiring a late-July surgery and repeated treatments through- just utterly collapse last season. Yes, the Saints offense was
out the year. That left Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harty, and bad, but they didn’t fall to terrible, unwatchable levels like
Tre’Quan Smith as New Orleans’ top receiving options; not many of the teams the model can compare them to. Taking
exactly a murderer’s row of talent there. The offensive line a team that started more unique players than any other team
180 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

in NFL history1 and bringing them within a few minutes of in Tampa Bay. While Winston set career bests in both touch-
making the playoffs is a tremendous achievement, a credit to down and interception percentage in 2021, his play-by-play
Payton’s ability to drag his team through adversity and keep numbers don’t point to any significant improvement.
them competitive throughout. And while a 13.6% passing DVOA in a small sample size
It is exceptionally hard to quantify the effects of losing a is good, it does not necessarily follow that it will lead to suc-
coach like Payton. It’s not common for a coach considered cess over the course of a full season. In the DVOA era, there
that strong to retire, because few coaches have been consid- have been 23 quarterbacks who, like Winston, had a DVOA
ered that strong. Our projections do take into account coach- between 0.0% and 20.0% in a year where they threw between
ing experience, but they may be underestimating just how 100 and 200 pass attempts and then went on to qualify for
much losing a coach of that caliber will hurt in the short term. our leaderboards the next season. There is zero correlation be-
To find similarities to Payton leaving New Orleans, we tween their short-season stats and their full season stats. The
would be looking for coaches with an offensive background average player in that group of 23 saw his DVOA drop by
and an extended tenure with one team. They would also need 9.0%, with outcomes varying from 2011 Matthew Stafford
to keep their quarterback and offense in place for the next guy; improving by 12.0 percentage points to 2003 Kordell Stewart
we’re not looking for teams that blew everything up when plummeting by 57.3. Winston’s likely closer to the upper end
their coach left. There are only 21 coaches in the DVOA era of that scale, but it’s far from a guarantee.
(1981-2021) who match those criteria, and most of them ei- And the problems go beyond the man under center. Mi-
ther didn’t have the same offensive reputation as Payton or chael Thomas has not played in a year and a half, and while
handed their replacements a Hall-of-Fame passer in his prime. 2019 Michael Thomas was one of the best receivers in all of
The only modern comparison we have for Payton is Joe football, one does not simply walk back into the top of the
Gibbs leaving Washington after the 1992 season. Both men DYAR charts. Latest reports have Thomas still trying to clear
have won Super Bowls and Coach of the Year awards. Both several hurdles in his rehab, and while everyone’s optimistic
had some of the best offenses of their respective eras, known he’ll see the field this season, they were equally as optimis-
for innovating and pushing the game forward. Both retire- tic at this time last season. Between Thomas and Alvin Ka-
ments came as a surprise in the middle of the offseason. Both mara—who is coming off his worst season in the NFL with
handed the keys to their defensive coordinator, leaving their a -18.2% rushing DVOA, not to mention still-outstanding
top offensive assistant in place. Both kept most of their of- legal issues—New Orleans is counting a lot on their Army
fenses in place, led by a good, if not great, passer. Both left of the Mostly Dead returning to form in 2022. The Saints
a solid collection of very good skill-position players for their made a splash by trading up in the first round to grab Chris
successors. Olave, who should help significantly, but there is precious lit-
And Washington utterly collapsed the moment Gibbs left. tle depth behind them should Thomas’ injury linger or Olave
He was the one keeping the aging 1992 team together long struggle to deal with physical NFL corners. That makes the
enough to make the playoffs despite significant injuries on Jarvis Landry signing larger for the Saints than it would be
both sides of the ball. When he departed, the depleted roster for many teams; while Landry’s heavy diet of screens and
couldn’t keep up. Their 4-12 record in 1993 was worse than short passes have never made him a DVOA favorite, he’s
any of Gibbs’ seasons, and head coach Richie Petitbon and of- very dangerous over short distances, and a much better op-
fensive coordinator Rod Dowhowser were gone by the end of tion as a worst-case WR1 than the likes of Tre’Quan Smith,
the year. With Gibbs no longer standing on his head to gloss Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harty.
over the structural concerns tearing apart the 1991 Super Bowl Losing Terron Armstead on the offensive line is a huge
team, the bottom fell out. It took four years for the next regime blow as well, one caused by the lack of salary cap flexibility
to pick up the pieces. If the Saints were being held together by after years of shuffling money into the future. Trevor Penning
a heroic coaching job from Payton, we may have reached the is strong and violent and has significant projectable traits, but
day where the age of the Saints comes crashing down. his tape doesn’t quite live up to the level you would hope for
Our projections say that it is not this day. We do not have in a first-round lineman. He didn’t always dominate FCS com-
the Saints falling anywhere near as far, but you don’t have to petition, and it might take him a year or two to piece things
be the world’s largest pessimist to see the potential danger. together in the big leagues. And along the line, much like ev-
Winston’s underlying level of performance didn’t show a dif- erywhere else, the Saints are very thin; they haven’t had the
ferent quarterback from the one who underwhelmed in Tampa cap space or mid-round draft picks needed to stuff the roster
Bay. He didn’t suddenly become a game manager after a year with quality players should someone struggle or get hurt.
as Drew Brees’ understudy; he brings the same combination Our projections side with the optimists. Winston is a solid-
of beautiful deep balls and hair-tearingly awful decisions that caliber starter and a significant upgrade over what New Or-
have defined him since he entered the league. Only 70.1% of leans trotted out in the second half of last season. Even a half-
his passes were on target, per SIS charting; that’s a career low. speed Michael Thomas would be an upgrade for the receiving
His sack rate increased as he continued to struggle under pres- corps. It’s hard to bemoan the loss of Armstead too much as he
sure. His CPOE was two percentage points lower than it was simply wasn’t available for most of last season with injuries.

1 The Saints started 58 different players over 17 games; the 2021 Texans are second with 57 unique starters and the 2019 Dolphins third with 56.
 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 181

And by keeping so much of their roster intact, the 2022 Saints be a solid outcome for this roster. But if the Saints did all of
are in much better position to contend than they would have this cap manipulation and draft-pick trading just to be blown
been had they blown everything up and started over. Being a out in the first round by, say, the Cowboys? In that case, when
Saints fan will be more fun this season, at the very least. the Saints look around to pick up the pieces for next offsea-
The bottom line, however, is whether these moves were son, they may find they have simply dug too greedily and too
worth it. Was it worth throwing millions of dollars into the deep, awakening the shadow and flame. Because between the
future and trading away multiple mid-round picks to lock up choice of wandering around in the darkness of Khazad-dûm or
second place in the NFC South? How good of a season must digging oneself out of a metric ton of dead money and unalter-
the Saints have to justify potential future pain? If they come able contracts, we’d take our chances with the Balrog.
home this year with a Lombardi Trophy, all will be good. A
deep playoff run, even if ultimately unsuccessful, would also Bryan Knowles

2021 Saints by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 GB W 100% 38 3 322 229 3 87% 23% -58% 6% Total DVOA -10.6% 23 -15.0% 3
2 at CAR L 0% 7 26 128 383 -1 -97% -89% 17% 8% Unadjusted VOA -8.9% 22 -14.3% 3
3 at NE W 99% 28 13 252 300 3 59% 26% -47% -14% Weighted Trend -17.9% 28 -17.2% 2
4 NYG L 84% 21 27 405 485 0 -22% 15% 32% -5% Variance 12.1% 30 6.5% 18
5 at WAS W 95% 33 22 369 373 0 27% 22% -1% 4% Average Opponent -0.1% 15 -0.5% 18
6 BYE
7 at SEA W 96% 13 10 304 219 -1 32% -12% -41% 3% Passing 7.0% 18 -7.2% 4
8 TB W 21% 36 27 361 421 3 16% -6% -21% 1% Rushing -18.4% 28 -26.8% 1
9 ATL L 75% 25 27 376 366 -1 0% -2% 12% 14%
First Down -12.6% 26 -22.1% 1
10 at TEN L 86% 21 23 373 264 -1 21% 33% -2% -15%
Second Down -17.5% 28 -6.9% 9
11 at PHI L 5% 29 40 323 380 -2 -16% -19% -3% 0%
Third Down 3.9% 15 -13.9% 6
12 BUF L 0% 6 31 190 361 1 -32% -38% -9% -3%
13 DAL L 1% 17 27 405 377 -3 -19% -30% -14% -3% First Half -8.1% 21 -14.5% 3
14 at NYJ W 94% 30 9 344 256 0 12% 0% -8% 5% Second Half -13.0% 26 -15.4% 2
15 at TB W 84% 9 0 212 302 2 33% -39% -60% 11%
16 MIA L 0% 3 20 164 259 -1 -65% -82% -12% 5% Red Zone 16.9% 6 -24.2% 3
17 CAR W 99% 18 10 280 178 2 24% -8% -33% -1% Late and Close 1.8% 20 -20.3% 1
18 at ATL W 96% 30 20 369 257 3 -4% -13% -19% -10%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 11-5 11.1 14.1 448 326 +7 35.0% 1 22.4% 2 -11.4% 6 1.2% 15 32.6 16 66.4 29 27.5 6 24.9 31 25.7 21
2018 13-3 11.5 11.7 504 353 +9 25.2% 2 16.1% 4 -7.3% 8 1.7% 9 28.0 9 22.4 8 28.2 3 25.3 29 26.6 7
2019 13-3 10.9 13.3 458 341 +15 32.7% 2 22.0% 4 -7.1% 8 3.6% 3 23.2 8 35.1 18 27.5 5 25.8 21 26.5 6
2020 12-4 11.4 11.8 482 337 +9 33.3% 1 10.7% 7 -19.0% 2 3.6% 5 29.9 10 19.2 3 27.4 8 27.5 1 26.7 5
2021 9-8 9.4 9.5 364 335 +7 4.7% 14 -10.6% 23 -15.0% 3 0.3% 16 76.5 31 30.5 10 26.3 21 27.1 3 26.1 15

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

NO Offense NO Offense vs. Opponents NO Defense NO Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 43% 5.2 1.3% 36% Base 29% 5.0 -7.6% 60% Base 14% 4.8 -27.5% 11 65% 5.2 -18.0%
12 14% 4.6 -5.5% 52% Nickel 58% 4.8 -10.1% 42% Nickel 60% 5.3 -11.2% 12 21% 5.3 -8.5%
21 8% 5.8 5.1% 49% Dime+ 12% 6.3 31.8% 13% Dime+ 25% 5.2 -20.7% 21 5% 4.0 -50.6%
611 7% 5.2 -25.5% 64% Goal Line 1% 0.5 -5.3% 100% Goal Line 1% 1.8 25.6% 22 2% 5.4 -1.7%
01 7% 5.0 -14.0% 18% 10 2% 5.1 4.3%
612 5% 4.6 11.5% 85% 13 2% 3.4 -60.1%
182 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 43% 5 Form: Single Back 81% 19 Rush 3 11.0% 3 4 DB 14% 29 Play Action 25% 21
Runs, first down 52% 7 Form: Empty Back 7% 23 Rush 4 68.2% 22 5 DB 60% 18 Offensive Motion 36% 26
Runs, second-long 34% 6 Form: Multi Back 12% 9 Rush 5 16.4% 26 6+ DB 25% 5 Avg Box (Off) 6.68 4
Runs, power sit. 67% 8 Pers: 3+ WR 56% 25 Rush 6+ 4.4% 15 Man Coverage 41% 2 Avg Box (Def) 6.25 28
Runs, behind 2H 35% 4 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 39% 4 Edge Rusher Sacks 64.1% 10 CB by Sides 71% 18 Offensive Pace 31.03 14
Pass, ahead 2H 42% 28 Pers: 6+ OL 18% 1 Interior DL Sacks 4.3% 31 S/CB Cover Ratio 32% 8 Defensive Pace 30.10 5
Run-Pass Options 5% 24 Shotgun/Pistol 53% 28 Second Level Sacks 31.5% 4 DB Blitz 12% 12 Go for it on 4th 1.26 10

New Orleans ran 36% of the time from 11 personnel, the highest rate in the league. 🏈 Once again, the Saints ran on sec-
ond-and-long more than almost any other team and they were absolutely terrible on these plays: 3.2 yards per carry with -59.6%
DVOA. 🏈 The Saints led the NFL in using six offensive linemen for the second straight year. New Orleans averaged 4.9
yards with -6.0% DVOA on these plays. 🏈 Here’s one of the quirkiest stats of the year: the Saints were phenomenal in the
red zone. Look at the first 80 yards of the field, and the Saints ranked 28th with -16.4% DVOA. Inside the 20, the Saints were
sixth with 16.9% DVOA. The effect of Taysom Hill rushing the ball near the goal line? Not at all, because the Saints were No.
1 passing in the red zone (64.7% DVOA) but ranked 25th running in the red zone (-16.5% DVOA). At least one thing makes
sense, which is that the pass DVOA in the red zone dived after the bye week when Hill took over as the full-time quarterback.
🏈 New Orleans had the best defensive DVOA in the league against both 11 and 21 personnel. 🏈 The Saints had a league-
best -45.8% DVOA against running back carries from standard formations. They were above average, but not as good, against
running back carries from shotgun (-18.7% DVOA). 🏈 New Orleans is at the bottom of the league every year in opposition
penalties, which is not normally a stat that correlates strongly from year to year. New Orleans and Tampa Bay were tied with
the fewest penalties charged to opponents last year. The Saints were 32nd in 2020, 31st in 2019, and 30th in 2018.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Siemian* 86 -4.1% 197 1090 5.5 4.7 57.4% 11 3 M.Callaway 104 3.5% 84 46 698 15.2 3.1 6 55%
J.Winston 268 13.6% 172 1090 6.3 6.1 59.4% 14 3 D.Harris 132 17.3% 59 36 570 15.8 6.8 3 61%
T.Hill 9 -10.1% 141 901 6.4 6.7 59.5% 4 5 T.Smith 42 -1.7% 50 32 377 11.8 3.5 3 64%
I.Book -203 -122.8% 28 81 2.9 6.8 60.0% 0 2 T.Montgomery* -63 -44.5% 26 16 95 5.9 5.4 0 62%
A.Dalton -165 -21.2% 253 1370 5.4 5.0 63.4% 8 9 K.Stills* -72 -53.7% 23 6 68 11.3 1.7 1 26%
L.Humphrey* 99 62.6% 18 13 249 19.2 7.8 2 72%
C.Hogan* -2 -16.4% 8 4 41 10.3 3.3 1 50%
Rushing J.Landry 18 -10.1% 87 52 570 11.0 5.3 2 60%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc A.Trautman -41 -21.6% 43 27 263 9.7 4.1 2 63%
A.Kamara -95 -18.2% 238 893 3.8 4 0 43% J.Johnson 45 22.2% 22 13 159 12.2 3.2 4 59%
T.Hill 54 1.1% 70 380 5.4 5 1 - N.Vannett 18 10.7% 15 9 133 14.8 10.2 1 60%
M.Ingram -26 -18.0% 68 260 3.8 1 1 41% T.Hill 13 24.8% 6 4 52 13.0 12.5 0 67%
T.Jones -53 -31.7% 54 142 2.6 0 0 39% A.Kamara 102 14.6% 67 47 439 9.3 9.3 5 70%
J.Winston 70 40.3% 24 174 7.3 1 0 - M.Ingram 12 -6.4% 26 20 138 6.9 6.7 0 77%
T.Montgomery* -9 -48.6% 15 44 2.9 0 0 - T.Jones -11 -36.0% 8 5 29 5.8 5.6 0 63%
A.Armah* 9 15.2% 5 21 4.2 0 0 80%
D.Harris 22 49.0% 5 41 8.2 0 0 -
D.Washington* 1 0.8% 4 16 4.0 0 0 50%
A.Dalton 4 -6.1% 13 82 6.3 0 0 -
J.Landry 29 11.7% 6 34 5.7 2 1 -
 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 183

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Cesar Ruiz RG/C 23 17/17 1090 0 2.5 14 9 Ryan Ramczyk RT 28 10/10 653 0 3.0 8 6
James Hurst LT/RT 31 17/15 940 5 2.5 16 9 Terron Armstead* LT 31 8/8 467 3 2.0 5 4
Calvin Throckmorton LG/RG 26 17/14 937 4 1.0 16 9 Andrus Peat LG 29 6/6 303 1 0.0 9 3
Erik McCoy C 25 12/12 745 7 0.0 4 8 Jordan Mills* RT 32 10/3 221 1 0.0 4 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.56 4.92 1 67% 13 16% 4 1.27 11 0.80 15 10.8% 21 25 4.7% 3 23.7% 1 12.7% 12 33
2020 4.69 4.89 4 78% 2 14% 2 1.28 12 0.82 12 5.9% 1 29 6.1% 13 19.4% 4 8.6% 3 26
2021 3.57 3.92 27 55% 28 19% 28 1.04 28 0.32 31 12.2% 20 37 7.7% 23 29.3% 26 15.1% 22 17
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.24 (29) Left Tackle: 4.62 (11) Mid/Guard: 3.76 (29) Right Tackle: 4.10 (19) Right End: 4.01 (19)

The Saints had the lowest offensive line continuity score in the league in 2021. Cesar Ruiz was the only lineman to log 1,000
snaps, and the most frequently used combination managed just 167 snaps together over the course of the season. This is a
large part of why, after years of success, the Saints’ run blocking was atrocious. They ranked 27th in adjusted line yards, 28th
in power success, and 28th in stuff rate as they were unable to provide any sort of push at the line of scrimmage. 🏈 First-
round pick Trevor Penning should replace the departed Terron Armstead at left tackle. Penning is going to take some significant
development, as there’s a big gap between the competition he faced at FCS Northern Iowa and the pros. Scouts rave about his
measurables, athleticism, and nasty demeanor, however, so there’s plenty of potential here. 🏈 Ryan Ramcyzk’s 613 snaps
without a penalty flag were the most among tackles last season. He also led ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate at the position. He’s
the highest paid right tackle in the league for a reason. 🏈 Andrus Peat’s 4.2% blown block rate was the worst of his career.
His 6.2% blown block rate on passing plays is the worst for a guard with at least 100 snaps since SIS charting began. 🏈 Ruiz
has struggled at both right guard and center since being drafted in the first round in 2020. This season should be his last chance
to prove he was worth a pick; if there’s no improvement, New Orleans has to move on. 🏈 Erik McCoy’s 1.0% blown pass
block rate was second among centers.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Shy Tuttle 27 DT 17 494 51 5.9% 39 37 5 1 45 71% 43 2.6 52 0.0 1 6 3
David Onyemata 30 DT 11 430 34 6.1% 36 26 8 2 30 73% 35 2.6 51 2.0 8 19 0
Christian Ringo* 30 DT 14 315 26 3.6% -- 20 4 3 25 80% -- 2.1 -- 0.0 3 5 0
Albert Huggins 25 DT 9 219 16 3.5% -- 13 1 1 14 93% -- 1.8 -- 0.0 2 2 0
Jaleel Johnson 28 DT 12 322 23 3.6% 86 16 4 2 20 70% 48 2.9 67 0.0 1 7 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Cameron Jordan 33 DE 16 830 65 8.0% 9 55 27 1 44 80% 20 1.4 10 12.5 11 29 4
Carl Granderson 26 DE 15 448 24 3.1% 90 18 7 7 19 74% 38 1.8 16 3.0 5 17 0
Marcus Davenport 26 DE 11 437 39 6.9% 20 32 17 4 26 77% 29 2.6 48 9.0 8 24 0
Tanoh Kpassagnon 28 DE 8 220 20 4.9% 55 18 5 2 12 92% 5 2.0 23 4.0 4 8 1
Jalyn Holmes* 26 DE 8 189 15 3.7% -- 13 4 3 14 86% -- 2.0 -- 0.0 1 1 1
Kentavius Street 26 DE 17 351 27 3.2% -- 22 9 2 21 76% -- 2.5 -- 3.0 4 5 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Demario Davis 33 MLB 16 1037 112 13.7% 33 63 25 10 58 66% 14 3.9 44 3.0 7 8 43 58% 17 5.2 18 7 0
Kwon Alexander* 28 OLB 12 535 52 8.5% 72 38 16 11 23 74% 4 3.7 32 3.5 4 8 30 67% 7 6.2 36 2 1
Pete Werner 23 OLB 15 394 59 7.7% 75 31 6 3 41 59% 38 3.0 11 0.0 1 6 16 69% 4 4.3 6 0 0
Zack Baun 26 OLB 17 194 22 2.5% -- 8 2 2 12 67% -- 2.8 -- 0.0 2 1 11 18% -- 11.8 -- 0 0
Eric Wilson 28 OLB 14 300 45 6.2% -- 16 8 6 23 39% -- 5.8 -- 0.0 1 2 11 18% -- 6.7 -- 1 1
184 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.65 3.94 5 58% 5 21% 8 0.95 3 0.51 4 17.5% 4 51 7.7% 9 36.2% 2 15.2% 17
2020 3.85 3.74 4 64% 12 21% 6 0.98 3 0.66 12 12.1% 19 45 8.5% 3 30.1% 3 16.1% 5
2021 3.54 3.56 3 68% 15 20% 7 0.87 1 0.52 9 15.7% 9 46 7.8% 6 24.7% 18 12.6% 24
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.86 (13) Left Tackle: 2.39 (1) Mid/Guard: 3.89 (8) Right Tackle: 3.15 (2) Right End: 2.98 (4)

While the Saints finished sixth in adjusted sack rate, they were only 26th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate, which sets 2.5
seconds as its cutoff for a pass-rush win. The Saints’ coverage and scheme were helping them generate more sacks than pure
pass rush would achieve on its own. Per SIS charting, New Orleans had the third-most coverage sacks in the league last sea-
son and the eighth-most “untouched rusher” sacks, but only 37% of their sacks were charted as blown blocks with a defender
straight-out beating the opposing lineman. 🏈 While Cameron Jordan’s 12.5 sacks were impressive, he set career lows with
29 quarterback hurries and 19 quarterback hits. 🏈 Marcus Davenport took steps towards being the player the Saints were
hoping for when they drafted him in the first round. His pressure rate rose to a career-high 16.2%, and he finished those plays
too, more than doubling his career sack rate. 🏈 David Onyemata’s 19 hurries look more impressive when you realize he
missed six games. He was fifth amongst defensive tackles with a 10.8% pressure rate. 🏈 Former UDFA Shy Tuttle has
become an important cog in the Saints’ rush defense, with 53 run stops over the last two years. It’s surprising, then, that he only
had four tackles for a loss last season, and an average tackle depth of 2.5 yards, both placing him out of the top 50 among inte-
rior linemen. 🏈 Demario Davis led all linebackers with five passes defensed. He was one of 11 linebackers to finish in the
top 20 in both yards per pass and coverage success rate, and one of only two who pulled that off while playing over 90% of his
team’s snaps. 🏈 The plan wasn’t for rookie Pete Werner to step into the starting lineup quite so soon, but Kwon Alexander’s
injury meant that Werner got plenty of starting experience in 2021. Being in the top 40 in run stop rate as a rookie is a very solid
start, and his 9% broken tackle rate was fifth among linebackers with at least 25 tackles. 🏈 Appalachian State linebacker
D’Marco Jackson will probably be limited as a rookie to special teams duty, where his 4.55s 40 speed and athleticism seems
like a very good fit. The fifth-round draftee may be too stiff to ever be a three-down defender, but there’s explosion there that
is intriguing, at the least.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Malcolm Jenkins* 35 SS 16 1041 84 10.3% 40 37 12 13 39 41% 29 5.6 17 46 10.7% 23 7.7 63% 15 5.7 16 5 1
Marcus Williams* 26 FS 16 1036 82 10.0% 46 18 6 9 34 24% 63 9.6 65 17 4.0% 73 17.6 65% 13 7.4 42 8 2
Marshon Lattimore 26 CB 16 998 87 10.6% 17 47 22 4 14 57% 17 4.6 16 92 22.2% 23 13.9 59% 20 8.5 64 19 3
Paulson Adebo 23 CB 17 850 71 8.2% 47 24 10 6 16 50% 22 4.9 22 77 21.9% 24 13.6 45% 72 8.9 74 8 3
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson 25 SS 12 626 53 8.7% 58 25 13 12 14 71% 1 3.0 1 45 17.3% 4 11.2 51% 49 7.4 43 7 3
P.J. Williams 29 CB 16 545 47 5.8% -- 29 15 7 14 79% -- 3.9 -- 24 10.6% -- 7.8 46% -- 6.3 -- 5 3
Bradley Roby 30 CB 14 394 28 3.9% -- 14 9 7 5 40% -- 4.2 -- 31 19.0% -- 9.5 45% -- 9.3 -- 5 1
Tyrann Mathieu 30 SS 16 998 82 10.2% 42 27 9 11 27 22% 67 8.6 57 33 9.0% 29 7.9 70% 3 3.9 3 6 3
Daniel Sorensen 32 FS 17 698 59 6.9% 69 19 13 16 22 27% 53 5.9 18 30 11.7% 12 13.3 40% 66 11.4 72 8 2
Marcus Maye 29 FS 6 363 48 14.8% -- 18 8 5 29 41% -- 5.8 -- 15 11.4% -- 9.2 67% -- 6.1 -- 2 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 13 -6.3% 11 -4.6% 11 10.1% 22 -9.7% 14 9.9% 20 -7.8% 8 -3.2% 16
2020 3 -10.7% 11 -8.9% 11 -1.4% 15 0.6% 16 -6.3% 12 -34.7% 2 -9.7% 9
2021 4 -8.2% 11 -1.0% 14 10.8% 25 -0.7% 21 5.7% 16 -19.4% 6 -20.3% 3

In 2021, Marcus Williams’ average play came 14.0 yards downfield, second deepest in the league. Malcolm Jenkins’ average
was at 6.7, eighth shortest among safeties. This was the biggest gap between a team’s top two safeties last season as Williams
was always the free safety and Jenkins always the strong safety. Expect that split to vanish in 2022 with Tyrann Mathieu (9.0
yards) and Marcus Maye (6.9 in 2020) at safety. 🏈 The three most-targeted safeties in the league over the past three seasons
have been Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Malcolm Jenkins, and Tyrann Mathieu. The Honey Badger should fit in just fine with
how Allen likes using his safeties. 🏈 The Saints are optimistic that Maye will make a full recovery from his Achilles injury
as a healthy Maye has consistently been one of the better safeties in the league. In 2020, Maye ranked second in coverage suc-
cess rate among safeties and fourth in run stops. 🏈 With the versatile Mathieu and Maye in the lineup, it will be interesting
to see what happens to Gardner-Johnson. He’s best used when split between nickel corner and box safety; will he be one of three
interchangeable safety pieces, or will Mathieu and Maye box Gardner-Johnson into a smaller role? 🏈 Welcome to the big
 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 185

leagues, kid. Tom Brady gave a full-on scouting report of rookie Paulson Adebo live on the ManningCast, saying he was study-
ing him quite closely. The next week, Brady went 4-for-6 with a touchdown targeting Adebo. It was a rough rookie season for
Adebo, but that might have been the nadir. 🏈 Marshawn Lattimore is exceptionally streaky. From Weeks 4 to 10, Lattimore
allowed a 50% success rate and 10.9 yards per target. Before and after that, he was at 35% and 6.0, respectively. 🏈 Second-
round pick Alontae Taylor is an athlete first and foremost, running a 4.36s 40 at the combine and crushing the jumping tests at
Tennessee’s pro day. That athleticism doesn’t always show on tape, and his production has never quite matched his potential,
but he’s still relatively new at the position and has plenty of upside.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 3.6% 3 8.4 4 -7.0 31 3.1 9 4.9 10 9.0 2 6.8 5
2020 3.6% 5 -1.1 16 5.0 8 1.0 11 8.3 6 4.5 6 0.7 14
2021 0.3% 16 -10.2 31 4.3 9 -1.7 19 4.5 6 4.5 4 4.6 12

All four Saints kickers had negative placekicking value in 2021, which makes the return of Wil Lutz significant. Lutz only
put up positive field goal value in 2018 and 2019, but even in his negative years he has been more reliable than the fearsome
foursome the Saints had to settle for in 2021. 🏈 Blake Gillikin led the league with 17 punts being downed inside the 10-
yard line. 🏈 In case you’re confused, Deonte Harty was known as Deonte Harris in previous years. He changed his name
in January to honor his stepfather. Harty’s value on both kick and punt returns has dropped each of the last two seasons; some
of last year’s punt return value came from wide receiver Easop Winston. 🏈 J.T. Gray was chosen All-Pro on special teams,
leading the NFL with 19 combined special teams tackles. Andrew Dowell, with 14, also made the league’s top 10.
 New York Giants
2021 record: 4-13 Total DVOA: -29.6% (31) 2022 Mean Projection: 6.6 wins On the Clock (0-5): 36%
Pythagorean Wins: 4.1 (29) Offense: -28.1% (32) Postseason Odds: 16.4% Mediocrity (6-8): 43%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.0 (22) Defense: 2.8% (18) Super Bowl Odds: 0.7% Playoff Contender (9-11): 18%
Average Opponent: 2.8% (2) Special Teams: 1.3% (11) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -1.7% (28) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 3%

2021: No! God! No, God, please no! No! No! Nooooooooooooooooo!

2022: Well, well, well … How the turntables…

W e’re bad at making decisions. All of us. But especially

the New York Giants. They’ve made a lot of really, re-
ally bad ones lately.
it should have. The extension triggered a series of ill-advised
win-now moves, like in 2018 when Gettleman signed offen-
sive tackles Nate Solder and Patrick Omameh and drafted run-
Like hiring Dave Gettleman, a man who knows his way ning back Saquon Barkley second overall. The Giants could
around a fake keyboard better than an actual keyboard, to be have drafted Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. They also could
their general manager. have drafted Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen. But even if they
Like hiring Joe Judge, a man who calls quarterback sneaks weren’t sold on the quarterbacks in that draft, they could have
on second-and-11 instead of fourth-and-1, to be their head addressed other pressing needs, such as cornerback (Denzel
coach. Ward or Jaire Alexander), offensive line (Quenton Nelson), or
Like giving away medium sodas to only a select group of defensive line (Vita Vea).
ticket holders on Fan Appreciation Day. The Giants didn’t want to fire Judge. They fired Ben McAdoo
Oof. That last one might be the worst of them. It’s hard to after two seasons. Pat Shurmer, too. With Judge, they wanted to
hire good people. But a soda giveaway? That should be easy. be patient, or at least give the impression of organizational sta-
[Turns to look at the New York Giants.] bility. When word spread in November that Gettleman planned
Medium sodas? Really? Medium? You’re the New York Gi- to retire at the end of the season, news reports implied that
ants. “Giant” is literally in your name! You are worth $5 bil- Judge would return in 2022. And maybe he would have if he
lion. At a minimum, you have to offer larges. To anyone and had stopped talking. As the losses mounted, he sought to project
everyone willing to come to New Jersey for an afternoon of strength and resolve but instead conveyed desperation and de-
bad football. But if you’re truly committed to the whole “Gi- lusion. The more he said, the more he embarrassed the Giants.
ants” thing, you should go bigger. Like, diabetes-in-a-bucket They were losing games and their dignity.
big. If you’re not going to do that, change your name. Own Make no mistake, ownership—spellbound by Manning’s
being ordinary. Be the Regulars. Or the 5-foot-8ers. Or the Super Bowl heroics and seduced by Gettleman and Judge’s
White Sneakers. football-guy bluster—made this mess. Still, ownership also
[Turns away from the Giants.] deserves some credit, even if begrudging, for finally snapping
Medium sodas. Goodness, what a clown show. out of it and hitting the reset button. The time was right. The
Judge didn’t think so. “This ain’t some clown show orga- Giants needed their general manager and head coach to be in
nization,” he said amidst a six-game losing streak, clearly lockstep.
unaware of the universally accepted rule about clown shows. To fill those jobs, they looked west to Buffalo. The Bills
If you want people to believe you are not a clown show, you were in a similar place in 2017 when they plucked a coor-
cannot insist that you are not a clown show. Denial is confir- dinator (Sean McDermott) and an assistant general manager
mation. (Brandon Beane) from the Panthers and installed them as their
A few days later, the Giants fired Judge. Co-owner John head coach and general manager. It worked. Buffalo has gone
Mara had said that he wanted to feel good about the direction from talent-deficient and salary cap-strapped catastrophe to
of the team. After the 2021 season, how could he? That wasn’t perennial Super Bowl contender. The Giants shamelessly cop-
just a bad Giants team. It was an all-time bad Giants team. ied that blueprint, first hiring Bills assistant general manager
They lost nine games by at least 14 points, most in the NFL. Joe Schoen to be their general manager and then offensive
Their -29.6% total DVOA was the lowest of any Giants team coordinator Brian Daboll to be their head coach.
in the past 40 years. Talk about disrespecting the game… Schoen inherited arguably the worst salary cap situation in
The team’s descent into laughingstock wasn’t all Judge’s the NFL. The Giants weren’t the only team over the cap be-
fault. The downfall was set in motion well before he arrived. fore the start of the new league year, but they were the farthest
For far too long, the organization built around a declining Eli away from contention, leaving Schoen to figure out how to
Manning, who was 34 in 2015 when he signed a four-year, rebuild the roster while simultaneously tearing it down. That
$84-million extension that contained seven more years than meant jettisoning several Gettleman signings—tight end Kyle
186
 NEW YORK GIANTS 187

2021 NYG DVOA by Week

2022 Giants Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at TEN 7 at JAX 13 WAS
2 CAR 8 at SEA 14 PHI 40%
3 DAL (Mon.) 9 BYE 15 at WAS 20%
4 CHI 10 HOU 16 at MIN (Sat.)
0%
5 at GB (U.K.) 11 DET 17 IND
6 BAL 12 at DAL (Thu.) 18 at PHI -20%

-40%

-60%

Rudolph, running back Devontae Booker, safety Logan Ryan, -80%

and cornerback James Bradberry—and shopping for bargains. -100%

Of the 17 free agents Schoen signed, 14 received one-year

deals worth between $1 million and $1.3 million. His “splurg-
es” were guard Mark Glowinski (three years, $18.3 million),
backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor (two years, $11 million), What happened? Was Daboll a lousy coach who suddenly
and center Jon Feliciano (one year, $3.3 million). The aim became a good coach in Buffalo? Probably not. The expla-
here is to avoid humiliation in 2022 while preserving flexibil- nation might be that he landed in bad situations. From the
ity in 2023, or as Schoen said more artfully at his introductory looks of it, he was taking a tour of the NFL’s worst franchises.
press conference, “I think you can build a roster where you Fortunately for him, the Bills stopped him before he could
can compete today and build for tomorrow.” get to Washington or Jacksonville. At the other end of the op-
As for Daboll, he’s the Giants’ fourth head coach since they portunity spectrum, you’ll find coaches such as Bruce Arians.
forced out Tom Coughlin after the 2015 season. A former as- He crossed paths with Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger,
sistant coach with the Patriots (2000-2006 and 2013-2016), Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, and Tom Brady. Quarterback
he comes with the Bill Belichick seal of approval, which the whisperer or just extremely fortunate?
Giants care about way more than they should. Yes, he over- Coaches get a lot of credit and a lot of blame, but at this
saw Josh Allen’s development into a star quarterback, but was level, the difference between success and failure comes down
he responsible for it? Before 2019, Daboll wasn’t regarded to the people playing the game. Coaches are the conductors,
as a quarterback guru. His stints with the Jets (quarterbacks but as Michael Jordan has said, “the most important part of
coach, 2007-2008), Browns (offensive coordinator, 2009- the process is the players.” We have seen that in the NFL with
2010), Dolphins (offensive coordinator, 2011), and Chiefs (of- Peyton Manning, who took four different head coaches (Tony
fensive coordinator, 2012) were unremarkable (Table 1). His Dungy, Jim Caldwell, John Fox, and Gary Kubiak) to the Su-
quarterbacks in that span included Chad Pennington, Kellen per Bowl, and Tom Brady, who led two once-floundering fran-
Clemens, Brett Favre (the too-busy-sexting version), Brady chises to championships.
Quinn, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Jake Delhomme, Matt Which brings us to Daniel Jones and whether Daboll can
Moore, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, and Brady Quinn again. extract a breakout performance from the 2019 sixth overall
Not one of those teams ranked in the top half of the league in pick. Jones struggled again last season, finishing 25th or worse
pass DVOA. in DVOA, completion percentage over expectation, yards per
pass, touchdown rate, and ALEX. To be fair, the environment
Table 1. Brian Daboll's around him was as bad as it gets—he lacked healthy playmak-
ers and creative play calling. This season, he’ll be playing in
Major Coaching History a more contemporary offense. Expect more pre-snap motion,
play-action, RPOs, and a lot of first-down passes.
Year Team Position Primary Quarterback(s) Pass DVOA (Rank) In April, the Giants chose not to pick up the fifth-year op-
2007 NYJ QBs Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens -0.2% (19) tion on Jones’ rookie contract, which means he will be a free
2008 NYJ QBs Brett Favre -1.0% (23) agent after this season. The option would have cost the Giants
2009 CLE OC Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson -25.5% (29) a little more than $22 million in 2023. That’s a reasonable
2010 CLE OC Colt McCoy, Jake Delhomme 4.6% (22) cost, if you’re happy with your quarterback. Of course, Jones
2011 MIA OC Matt Moore, Chad Henne 5.1% (18) could beat expectations and play well enough that the Giants
2012 KC OC Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn -30.6% (32) decide they want to keep him from hitting the market. If so,
2018 BUF OC Josh Allen -22.6% (31) they could apply the franchise tag and retain him for more
2019 BUF OC Josh Allen 4.0% (20) than $31 million. That they’re willing to risk about $10 mil-
2020 BUF OC Josh Allen 43.3% (3) lion shows how little faith they have left.
2021 BUF OC Josh Allen 20.7% (13) What are the chances Jones makes the Giants regret their
Not listed: Patriots wide receivers, 2002-2006; Patriots tight ends, 2013-2016; decision? To find out, we grabbed our flashlights and searched
Alabama offensive coordinator, 2017
deep into the Football Outsiders archives for quarterbacks
188 NEW YORK GIANTS

who posted a pass DVOA below -10.0% in each of their first Can he turn the tables? Barkley is still only 25 years old. He
three seasons with at least 200 passes in each season. It’s a will be running behind a revamped offensive line and has a
short list. Turns out, teams generally don’t let bad quarter- new coach who’s eager to give him chances. However, as with
backs keep throwing. The four names we dug up: Jeff George Jones, history is not on his side. Going back to the 1970 merg-
(1990-1992), Rick Mirer (1993-1995), Tim Couch (1999- er, there are 55 running backs whose third and fourth seasons
2001), and Sam Darnold (2018-2020). Only George really resemble Barkley’s (150 to 200 carries, fewer than 4.0 yards
went on to have some good seasons. He had a positive passing per rush). Of those 55, five have gone on to rush for 1,000
DVOA in 1993, his fourth season, and went on to rank third in yards, the last being Knowshon Moreno. The one that best
DVOA for the 1999 Vikings with Randy Moss and Cris Carter matches Barkley’s hoped-for arc—early success, injury inter-
as his wide receivers. ruption, revival—is Earnest Byner. He rushed for 1,000 yards
What happens if we relax our search parameters to include in his second season, suffered an ankle injury in his third, and
quarterbacks who posted a pass DVOA between 0.0% and later rushed for 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. Not quite
-10.0% in their third seasons? After all, Jones just missed gold-jacket stuff, but still one hell of a career.
that territory. Take out his atrocious game against the Rams While the Giants are hoping for a different Daniel Jones
(four turnovers) and his pass DVOA improves from -10.6% and a different Saquon Barkley, they can safely assume new
to -1.5%. Even after that adjustment, the list doesn’t get much defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will keep being Wink
better. Now it includes Joey Harrington (2002-2004), Kyle Martindale. When he and the Ravens parted ways after last
Boller (2003-2005), and Sam Bradford (2003-2005). season, Martindale was not unemployed for long. The Giants
So, it’s not looking good for Jones. That he’s even getting a hired him less than three weeks later. One key bullet point
fourth season to prove himself is unusual. The reasons driving on his résumé: He stonewalled Daboll’s offenses. In the three
that decision are both emotional and financial. The emotional: games the Bills played against the Ravens over the past four
the Giants spent a first-round pick on him, and it’s taking time seasons, Buffalo managed to score only two touchdowns.
to come to terms with the sunk cost. The financial: Jones is Coming from the Buddy Ryan school of defense, Martindale
cheap. A replacement would have cost more. For instance, believes in blitzing, crowding the line of scrimmage, and play-
New York is paying Jones $4.2 million this season while his ing man-to-man. He wants to dictate, not react. “At the end of
backup Taylor is getting $5.5 million. the day, you want the quarterback on his back,” he said during
Even if the Giants had wanted to spend more at the position, OTAs. “I don’t care if he throws it or not—if you can just get
they didn’t have the cap space. They had larger financial com- quarterback hits, they know who they are playing against.”
mitments, like the $7.2 million they owed their … [checks Note that Martindale said “hits.” He isn’t going to obsess
notes] … running back? Yep, $7.2 million for Saquon Bar- over sacks. In fact, he once called them “one of the most su-
kley. That’s a steep price, even if he was, as Gettleman once perficial rankings there is.” It will come as no surprise then
said, “touched by the hand of God.” that the Ravens’ adjusted sack rates under Martindale were
Barkley, who has missed 21 games the past three seasons mostly pedestrian. After ranking fifth in 2018, they ranked
because of a right ankle sprain, an ACL tear, and a left ankle 15th in 2019, 13th in 2020, and 29th last season. As for quar-
sprain, has vowed to prove doubters wrong and show that he terback knockdowns, the Ravens were regularly among the
still can be one of the best running backs in the league. “For league leaders, ranking sixth, third, second, and 13th. Since
everyone outside in the world who were fans but may not be 2018, only four teams have registered more knockdowns
fans right now, for you guys (in the media) who are going to (Steelers, Buccaneers, Eagles, and Saints).
write something positive or mostly something negative about The key difference between those Ravens defenses and
me, just make sure you guys stay on that side of the table when this Giants defense: the players. Baltimore had better ones.
things turn around,” he said after a frustrating 2021 season. Martindale will have Leonard Williams and Dexter Law-
Though we might roll our eyes whenever we hear “establish rence anchoring his defensive line, fifth overall pick Kayvon
the run,” we take no joy in Barkley’s fall from breakout running Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari rushing off the edges, and
back to broken down running back. A good Barkley is good Adoree’ Jackson and Xavier McKinney manning the second-
for football. In 2021, we did not see much good. Barkley aver- ary. The roster thins out considerably after that.
aged 3.7 yards per carry and ranked 45th in rushing DVOA. He Don’t expect Martindale to play it safe, though. The Ravens
averaged a career-low 6.4 yards per catch and ranked 46th in were ravaged by injuries last season and yet he still rushed
receiving DVOA. The left ankle sprain he sustained when he five or more defenders at the eighth-highest rate (27.8%). He
stepped on a Cowboys defender’s foot in Week 5 likely limited often got burned; Baltimore posted the league’s second-worst
his effectiveness. The offensive line certainly didn’t help. But DVOA (35.8%) on those plays. His track record tells us he’s
backup Devonta Booker played behind the same line. He aver- going to throw these Giants defensive backs into the fire, which
aged 4.1 yards per carry and ranked 36th in rushing DVOA. makes you wonder: What if Derek Stingley or “Sauce” Gard-
He averaged 6.7 yards per catch and ranked 13th in receiving ner had been available at No. 5? Would New York have picked
DVOA. Barkley and Booker posted similar yards after contact Thibodeaux anyway? Consider this quote, from a teleconfer-
numbers, with Barkley averaging 2.1 and Booker averaging ence with Ravens season ticket holders in May 2021: “It’s one
2.0. (Barkley’s yards after contact average was down consider- of those things that, if you were asking me, if you’re the owner
ably from 2018 and 2019, when he surpassed 3.0.) of a team and I’m your head coach and it comes down to what
 NEW YORK GIANTS 189

do you want, I want as many cover corners as you can have.” center, said during minicamp. “He’s OK with people making
Well, the Giants have corners, technically. Whether they can mistakes as long as you’re making them full speed and as long
cover is an open question. With Bradberry gone, Jackson is far as they don’t become a habit. So that freedom as a player and
and away the team’s most accomplished cornerback. Bradberry his juice, it just all combines to being a happy player.” That’s
played 1,159 defensive snaps last season. The cornerbacks oth- buy-in, and if Judge ever had it, he didn’t have it for long.
er than Jackson on the Giants’ pre-training camp roster played When it comes to the 2022 season, the worst-case scenario
1,273 defensive snaps in 2020 and 2021 combined. for the Giants isn’t losing 13 games again. Their worst-case
Last season, three teams made the playoffs after finishing in scenario is that they do what the Falcons did last season—get
last place in their division the year before: the Bengals, the Ea- outscored by an average of 10 points a game but steal a hand-
gles, and the 49ers. Expect no such turnaround for these Giants, ful of one-score contests to finish 7-10. Such a record would
even with one of the league’s easiest schedules and (presum- be bad enough to keep the Giants out of the playoff picture but
ably) better injury luck. They are very much under construction. just good enough to keep them out of contention for a top-five
That doesn’t mean they aren’t better off today than they pick in the 2023 draft and out of position to take one of the top
were in January. Schoen has remade the front office. He has quarterbacks. Sure, they could make a move up the board, but
put the Giants in position to expand their budget in 2023. He there will be other quarterback-needy teams who will be in a
has hired a head coach he trusts. And his head coach has hired better position to do so. The Seahawks, Lions, Texans, Dol-
assistant coaches he trusts. Daboll isn’t ordering them to run phins, and Eagles each have two first-round picks. The Giants
laps, as Judge did as a consequence for mistakes during prac- have lost 59 games over the past five seasons. At some point,
tice. He’s handling his players differently, too, understanding they need something to show for it.
that he doesn’t need to shame or yell at them to motivate them. It’s going to be a long season. If you dare to watch, grab a
He’s building a culture of learning rather than one of fear. drink. The Giants won’t even give you that.
“He’s going to shoot it to you straight and he’s going to be
out here and have juice and have fun,” Jon Feliciano, the new Thomas Bassinger

2021 Giants by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 DEN L 21% 13 27 314 420 0 -5% 18% 21% -2% Total DVOA -28.1% 32 2.8% 18
2 at WAS L 34% 29 30 391 407 1 -15% -2% 24% 11% Unadjusted VOA -28.0% 32 4.1% 23
3 ATL L 58% 14 17 346 296 0 -27% -21% 6% -1% Weighted Trend -41.7% 32 -0.7% 17
4 at NO W 16% 27 21 485 405 0 -10% 27% 31% -6% Variance 11.9% 29 3.7% 9
5 at DAL L 2% 20 44 367 515 0 -21% -8% 6% -6% Average Opponent -0.9% 13 1.8% 7
6 LAR L 0% 11 38 261 365 -2 -71% -67% 2% -1%
7 CAR W 100% 25 3 302 173 1 35% -3% -29% 9% Passing -22.7% 31 2.9% 14
8 at KC L 16% 17 20 300 368 1 4% -16% -26% -6% Rushing -24.6% 30 2.7% 32
9 LV W 78% 23 16 247 403 2 11% -2% -4% 9%
First Down -22.3% 30 3.9% 21
10 BYE
Second Down -39.9% 31 6.1% 24
11 at TB L 0% 10 30 215 402 -2 -46% -49% 0% 3%
Third Down -22.3% 27 -4.2% 14
12 PHI W 94% 13 7 264 332 4 26% -9% -36% -1%
13 at MIA L 5% 9 20 250 297 -1 -34% -24% 11% 1% First Half -30.4% 32 3.2% 22
14 at LAC L 1% 21 37 316 423 -2 -59% -33% 24% -2% Second Half -26.2% 31 2.4% 16
15 DAL L 0% 6 21 302 328 -3 -29% -41% -5% 7%
16 at PHI L 0% 10 34 192 324 -2 -85% -82% 0% -3% Red Zone -20.4% 29 -7.8% 11
17 at CHI L 0% 3 29 155 249 -2 -94% -89% 5% 0% Late and Close -15.7% 28 8.0% 23
18 WAS L 3% 7 22 177 325 -3 -82% -73% 18% 10%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 3-13 4.0 4.1 246 388 -3 -24.5% 31 -9.4% 23 7.6% 25 -7.5% 32 59.0 26 36.4 17 26.5 23 26.0 20 25.6 24
2018 5-11 6.9 7.8 369 412 +2 -1.2% 16 1.1% 14 6.8% 25 4.5% 3 32.6 14 18.5 7 26.9 14 26.1 21 26.0 12
2019 4-12 5.3 3.8 341 451 -17 -18.6% 27 -7.4% 22 11.5% 28 0.3% 17 49.0 21 23.6 5 26.7 17 26.0 20 25.4 26
2020 6-10 5.7 6.5 280 357 0 -13.8% 25 -11.8% 26 3.7% 19 1.7% 12 50.9 25 53.5 24 25.8 25 25.6 28 25.9 17
2021 4-13 4.1 4.2 258 416 -8 -29.6% 31 -28.1% 32 2.8% 18 1.3% 11 73.5 30 35.6 16 26.6 16 25.4 31 26.1 17
190 NEW YORK GIANTS

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

NYG Offense NYG Offense vs. Opponents NYG Defense NYG Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 58% 4.9 -26.0% 27% Base 21% 4.2 -20.2% 56% Base 22% 4.6 -10.1% 11 64% 5.6 1.9%
12 25% 5.1 -21.2% 36% Nickel 64% 4.8 -25.1% 33% Nickel 54% 5.6 6.0% 12 22% 4.9 -2.3%
612 3% 4.3 -7.0% 80% Dime+ 14% 5.7 -25.6% 14% Dime+ 23% 5.9 8.5% 13 4% 5.4 13.8%
13 3% 5.1 -24.1% 52% Goal Line 1% 0.5 -22.7% 60% Goal Line 1% 0.4 5.6% 21 3% 5.0 -3.5%
21 2% 3.8 -25.4% 63%
22 2% 5.4 -0.8% 63%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 42% 9 Form: Single Back 85% 12 Rush 3 11.9% 2 4 DB 22% 19 Play Action 27% 16
Runs, first down 42% 31 Form: Empty Back 9% 15 Rush 4 65.5% 23 5 DB 54% 26 Offensive Motion 30% 32
Runs, second-long 33% 10 Form: Multi Back 6% 20 Rush 5 19.0% 17 6+ DB 23% 7 Avg Box (Off) 6.42 24
Runs, power sit. 56% 18 Pers: 3+ WR 59% 23 Rush 6+ 3.6% 21 Man Coverage 24% 26 Avg Box (Def) 6.40 25
Runs, behind 2H 28% 19 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 38% 5 Edge Rusher Sacks 45.6% 23 CB by Sides 51% 32 Offensive Pace 30.54 12
Pass, ahead 2H 55% 4 Pers: 6+ OL 7% 7 Interior DL Sacks 41.2% 6 S/CB Cover Ratio 37% 3 Defensive Pace 29.93 2
Run-Pass Options 14% 10 Shotgun/Pistol 70% 11 Second Level Sacks 13.2% 20 DB Blitz 13% 9 Go for it on 4th 0.66 31

The Giants were the worst offense in the league on short passes (up to 15 air yards) but were close to average on deeper
passes. 🏈 New York was the worst defense in the league against runs out of three-wide or four-wide sets, with 9.6% de-
fensive DVOA and 4.8 yards per carry allowed. No defense in the NFL faced more runs with three or more wide receivers on
the field. 🏈 Giants opponents threw a league-low 16% of passes to “other receivers.” 🏈 The Giants faced more wide
receiver screens than any other defense and allowed 6.2 yards per pass with 19.3% DVOA on these plays. 🏈 New York
didn’t bring much pressure on first and second down (18.4%, 31st) but amped up the pressure substantially on third and fourth
down (36.4%, seventh). 🏈 The Giants led the league with just 3.2 average yards allowed after the catch on passes beyond
the line of scrimmage. 🏈 The Giants also led the league with -35.5% DVOA when blitzing at least one defensive back. They
were second with 4.6 yards allowed per play. 🏈 One thing the Giants do well is avoid penalties. They were tied for 28th in
penalties last season and have been in the bottom five for three straight years.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
D.Jones 14 -10.6% 382 2258 5.9 4.7 64.6% 10 7 K.Golladay -37 -18.7% 76 37 521 14.1 3.2 0 49%
M.Glennon* -539 -59.2% 173 722 4.2 4.6 54.9% 4 10 D.Slayton -108 -36.2% 58 26 339 13.0 2.5 2 45%
J.Fromm* -328 -88.3% 66 177 2.7 3.7 45.0% 1 3 K.Toney 15 -9.3% 57 39 420 10.8 5.8 0 68%
T.Taylor -210 -30.9% 162 847 5.2 5.4 61.1% 5 5 S.Shepard 3 -11.9% 53 36 366 10.2 3.1 1 68%
C.Johnson -43 -40.3% 21 11 105 9.5 1.6 0 52%
J.Ross* 14 -3.5% 20 11 224 20.4 3.6 1 55%
D.Pettis* -22 -30.8% 16 10 87 8.7 3.8 1 63%
P.Cooper* -50 -70.3% 11 4 33 8.3 1.8 0 36%
C.J.Board 4 -4.4% 6 4 51 12.8 3.3 0 67%
D.Sills -27 -67.3% 6 2 17 8.5 1.0 0 33%
Rushing E.Engram* -81 -24.2% 73 46 408 8.9 4.0 3 63%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc K.Rudolph* -20 -14.4% 39 26 257 9.9 5.3 1 67%
S.Barkley -56 -17.5% 162 593 3.7 2 1 43% C.Myarick -6 -19.5% 6 3 17 5.7 2.7 1 50%
D.Booker* 22 -5.0% 145 593 4.1 3 0 45% R.Seals-Jones -60 -25.7% 49 30 271 9.0 5.1 2 61%
D.Jones -5 -13.8% 53 296 5.6 2 2 - S.Barkley -12 -17.6% 57 41 263 6.4 7.3 2 72%
E.Penny* 38 29.3% 24 99 4.1 1 0 50% D.Booker* 79 19.0% 45 40 268 6.7 7.4 1 89%
T.Taylor 20 11.8% 18 149 8.3 3 3 - E.Penny* -19 -35.5% 13 9 30 3.3 4.0 1 69%
M.Breida 15 5.0% 26 125 4.8 1 1 65% M.Breida 35 52.8% 9 7 72 10.3 8.7 2 78%
 NEW YORK GIANTS 191

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Will Hernandez* RG 27 17/17 1048 8 4.5 17 13 Matt Peart LT/RT 25 15/5 421 3 4.5 10 2
Billy Price* C 28 16/15 984 4 1.0 9 10 Ben Bredeson LG 24 8/1 294 2 1.5 7 0
Nate Solder* RT 34 16/16 926 6 6.0 33 3 Mark Glowinski RG 30 16/14 845 2 0.0 11 10
Andrew Thomas LT 23 13/13 799 5 2.5 12 7 Max Garcia RG/C 31 15/11 808 3 2.5 11 10
Matt Skura* LG 29 14/14 768 4 0.5 20 11 Jon Feliciano LG 30 9/6 442 3 0.5 9 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.25 3.96 25 58% 26 20% 19 1.10 24 0.99 8 10.7% 20 43 7.1% 17 33.4% 27 12.7% 11 34
2020 4.05 4.20 21 66% 20 17% 14 1.11 24 0.60 22 9.0% 13 50 7.9% 27 29.6% 25 17.4% 32 36
2021 3.88 3.74 31 66% 19 19% 26 1.04 29 0.51 21 14.1% 31 38 6.4% 14 25.3% 12 17.5% 31 24
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.26 (28) Left Tackle: 3.57 (29) Mid/Guard: 3.91 (27) Right Tackle: 3.39 (29) Right End: 3.57 (25)

The Giants suffered more adjusted games lost along the offensive line (38.5) than any team except the Eagles (38.6). A
snapshot of their luck: They entered the season with Shane Lemieux as their starting left guard and Nick Gates as their starting
center. Lemieux left the opener on a cart. Gates slid over to replace him in Week 2, then suffered a gruesome leg injury that
required multiple surgeries, including a skin graft. He might never play again. 🏈 The left guard job is up for grabs. Lemieux,
recovering from a partially torn patellar tendon, worked with the first-team offense during OTAs. He struggled as a rookie in
2020, averaging 21.9 snaps per blown block, the worst rate among left guards who played at least 400 snaps. This summer,
he’ll have to hold off free agent Max Garcia and third-round pick Joshua Ezeudu (North Carolina). 🏈 Left tackle Andrew
Thomas’ ascent continued last season. After racking up 29 blown blocks in the first eight games of his career, the 2020 fourth
overall pick has had 32 in his past 21 games. Thomas was also 10th among tackles in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate, though less
impressive (47th) in Pass Block Win Rate. 🏈 The Giants didn’t write many big checks this offseason, but the biggest went to
right guard Mark Glowinski. He’s an average but dependable interior lineman—he started 46 of 49 games for the Colts the past
three seasons—and a definite upgrade over Will Hernandez, particularly in the run game. He gives the Giants a veteran presence
next to right tackle and seventh overall pick Evan Neal. 🏈 Neal started 40 games during his three seasons at Alabama and
has experience at left guard (13 games), right tackle (12), and left tackle (15). Any rookie faces a learning curve upon entering
the NFL, but many expect the 6-foot-7, 350-pounder to make an impact right away. Among them: Kyle Flood, who was the
offensive line coach at Alabama in 2019 and 2020. “I think he can fit in just about anywhere,” Flood said on the Giants Huddle
podcast in June. “He’s a very unique combination of size, flexibility, and explosion.” 🏈 Jon Feliciano comes over from the
Bills to be the Giants’ stopgap at center. Though he has started just two games there in his career—in the middle of the 2020
season—his familiarity with Brian Daboll and offensive line coach Bobby Johnson could prove valuable if he can stay healthy.
He has played more than nine games only once in his seven seasons in the NFL (2019).

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Leonard Williams 28 DE 17 888 83 8.8% 5 62 16 4 68 72% 38 2.6 49 6.5 8 23 2
Dexter Lawrence 25 DE 16 757 56 6.3% 28 41 12 0 50 70% 48 2.5 41 2.5 8 28 3
Austin Johnson* 28 DT 17 664 73 7.7% 10 53 12 4 64 75% 26 2.5 43 3.5 3 11 1
Danny Shelton* 29 DT 13 255 31 4.3% -- 23 4 3 30 73% -- 2.4 -- 0.5 0 0 0
Justin Ellis 32 DT 17 382 18 2.2% -- 13 1 2 18 72% -- 2.8 -- 0.0 1 6 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Azeez Ojulari 22 OLB 17 780 51 5.4% 48 40 15 5 36 75% 33 2.6 45 8.0 5 21 2
Lorenzo Carter* 27 OLB 14 617 55 7.1% 17 34 18 5 34 53% 91 2.9 64 5.0 3 20 2
Quincy Roche 24 OLB 14 401 35 4.5% 63 23 8 1 27 70% 52 2.7 55 2.5 1 8 0
Oshane Ximines 26 OLB 10 183 15 2.7% -- 10 3 1 10 50% -- 3.4 -- 0.0 3 6 2
Jihad Ward 28 DE 17 457 32 3.6% 78 18 8 6 22 45% 98 4.2 95 2.0 5 9 0
Taco Charlton 28 DE 11 216 19 3.2% -- 10 3 1 16 50% -- 4.1 -- 0.5 2 3 0
192 NEW YORK GIANTS
Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Tae Crowder 25 ILB 17 1098 136 14.4% 28 55 12 16 79 44% 77 4.6 69 0.0 1 12 42 45% 47 7.3 51 6 2
Reggie Ragland* 29 ILB 17 473 68 7.2% 79 34 3 5 42 62% 26 4.1 55 0.0 1 5 12 33% 68 5.9 30 2 0
Jaylon Smith* 27 ILB 10 329 39 7.8% 74 15 5 2 21 38% 83 5.5 83 1.0 0 6 10 40% -- 5.1 -- 1 0
Benardrick McKinney* 30 ILB 11 181 29 4.7% -- 13 2 2 23 52% -- 4.7 -- 0.0 0 0 6 0% -- 9.7 -- 0 0
Blake Martinez 28 ILB 3 142 23 13.8% 32 9 2 3 13 54% 56 3.9 47 0.0 1 0 6 17% -- 6.2 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.96 4.02 7 59% 9 21% 11 1.16 17 0.71 15 13.1% 14 36 6.3% 23 28.6% 23 12.3% 26
2020 4.23 4.27 13 74% 29 17% 17 1.18 14 0.71 17 10.1% 24 40 6.6% 17 25.1% 16 13.2% 16
2021 4.51 4.78 31 67% 13 13% 28 1.28 23 0.54 10 8.9% 31 34 6.2% 21 23.6% 26 11.6% 27
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.97 (26) Left Tackle: 4.36 (18) Mid/Guard: 4.53 (24) Right Tackle: 4.91 (29) Right End: 5.86 (28)

After a middling performance against the run in 2020, the Giants fell to worst in the league last season (2.7% DVOA). The
defensive front allowed the most adjusted line yards per carry of any Giants team in the past quarter-century. 🏈 Leonard
Williams’ pass-rush productivity slipped last season. Despite playing nearly 100 more snaps in 2021, he had five fewer sacks, 11
fewer hits, and seven fewer hurries. His cap hit this season ($26.3 million) ranks third among interior defensive linemen behind
Chris Jones and Aaron Donald. A split seems imminent; his salary next season is not guaranteed. 🏈 New York exercised
the fifth-year option ($12.4 million) on Dexter Lawrence’s contract, ensuring the former first-round pick stays with the Giants
through 2023. Though viewed primarily as a run-stopper, Lawrence has seen his run stop rate decline each season since 2019,
from 81% to 77% to 70%. 🏈 Justin Ellis follows Wink Martindale over from Baltimore to play at the nose; he hasn’t started
more than five games in a season since 2017. He’ll be backed up by fifth-round pick D.J. Davidson (Arizona State), who was
the top run-defending tackle in FCS according to Sports Info Solutions’ Total Points metric but has limited impact in the passing
game. 🏈 Azeez Ojulari’s eight sacks broke the team rookie record. With fifth overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux on the oppo-
site side, New York suddenly has a much more credible pass rush. The Giants ranked only 30th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate
last season. 🏈 At least New York tackled well in 2021. The Giants posted the fifth-lowest rate of broken tackles (9.3%). 🏈
One exception on tackling: Tae Crowder. His 16 broken tackles were tied for seventh most among linebackers. The last player
chosen in the 2020 draft, Crowder took over at middle linebacker after Blake Martinez tore his ACL in Week 3 and went on to
play about 500 snaps too many. He doesn’t play the run well and is a liability in coverage. With Martinez returning on a restruc-
tured contract, Crowder slides over to weakside linebacker. His hold on the job is tenuous; the Giants drafted Micah McFadden
(Indiana) in the fifth round and Darrian Beavers (Cincinnati) in the sixth. 🏈 Like any fifth-rounder, McFadden is a project,
but his blitzing ability could be an asset. His 2.9 pressures per game at Indiana ranked third among weakside linebackers eligible
for this year’s draft, according to SIS. Beavers is a high-effort, high-instincts linebacker who struggles in man coverage.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
James Bradberry* 29 CB 17 1159 64 6.8% 68 26 10 12 9 22% 74 6.4 44 83 19.3% 45 11.4 51% 54 7.3 44 17 4
Xavier McKinney 24 FS 17 1133 103 10.9% 33 29 16 10 39 21% 68 10.1 71 34 8.1% 40 10.0 47% 55 6.4 30 10 5
Logan Ryan* 31 SS 15 1002 125 15.0% 4 40 19 13 50 36% 38 6.6 34 33 8.9% 32 10.6 45% 56 9.1 55 8 0
Adoree' Jackson 27 CB 13 814 70 9.7% 22 30 8 10 18 28% 63 7.1 58 55 18.2% 57 13.7 65% 5 4.9 4 8 1
Julian Love 24 FS 17 610 63 6.7% 71 27 9 6 23 30% 48 6.3 28 28 12.4% 11 9.4 54% 42 7.5 46 7 1
Darnay Holmes 24 CB 11 281 30 4.9% -- 12 4 2 8 50% -- 7.1 -- 17 16.3% -- 11.3 53% -- 6.3 -- 2 1
Aaron Robinson 24 CB 9 268 29 5.8% -- 9 4 1 8 13% -- 7.6 -- 24 24.1% -- 12.5 58% -- 5.6 -- 3 0
Jabrill Peppers* 27 SS 6 229 30 9.0% -- 12 5 3 4 100% -- 0.8 -- 18 21.2% -- 7.6 33% -- 10.2 -- 1 0
Henry Black 25 FS 17 262 26 3.2% -- 8 4 6 9 44% -- 6.3 -- 19 17.1% -- 9.0 32% -- 10.5 -- 2 1

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 31 32.8% 32 -2.2% 15 37.2% 32 -6.4% 16 48.2% 32 6.1% 20 12.8% 24
2020 22 -3.8% 14 3.0% 21 29.9% 31 -4.1% 12 9.1% 26 11.4% 24 -5.7% 11
2021 14 -6.6% 13 9.1% 24 -6.7% 9 -7.8% 15 4.0% 14 -10.2% 12 -15.3% 6
 NEW YORK GIANTS 193

The Giants were again zone-heavy in 2021, using man coverage on 23.7% of passes, which ranked 26th. That is certain to
change. With the Ravens last season, Martindale used man coverage on 37.9% of passes, which ranked fourth. 🏈 Adoree’
Jackson had a career year in pass coverage, achieving personal bests in success rate and yards allowed per pass. 🏈 This
time a year ago, the Giants thought they had solidified their outside cornerback situation by signing Jackson to complement
James Bradberry. Now Bradberry is gone, released so that the Giants could free up enough cap space to sign their draft class,
and New York is searching for a complement to Jackson. The leading contenders for the job barely saw the field last season.
Third-round rookie Aaron Robinson didn’t make his debut until Week 8 because of a core muscle injury. Sixth-round rookie
Rodarius Williams tore his ACL in Week 5 against the Cowboys. Michael Jacquet, whom the Giants signed in May, played three
snaps for the Jaguars, all on special teams. Robinson has the inside track to start on the outside; Williams, once healthy, could
be the top backup. 🏈 The Giants have drafted 10 defensive backs since 2019. Only the Vikings have drafted more (11).
Darnay Holmes, drafted in the fourth round in 2020, is the favorite to start at nickel cornerback, though Cor’Dale Flott, drafted
in the third round this year, could push for playing time. Flott, who played primarily in the slot at LSU, allowed 0.5 yards per
coverage snap, according to Sports Info Solutions. Among drafted cornerbacks, only “Sauce” Gardner (fourth overall to the
Jets) and Kaiir Elam (23rd overall to the Bills) posted lower rates. 🏈 Safety Xavier McKinney became the first player since
Jordan Poyer in 2017 to record 90 tackles, 10 passes defensed, and five interceptions in a single season. 🏈 The versatile
Julian Love—he has played at every spot in the secondary—is in line to start next to McKinney. He had a 60% success rate in
coverage in 2019, his rookie season, but hasn’t come close to matching it since. 🏈 Fourth-round pick Dane Belton moved
from safety to slot corner in Iowa’s nickel packages; his zone instincts are much stronger than his man technique.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.3% 17 -9.7 29 5.7 4 0.5 13 2.5 13 2.4 8 -2.7 19
2020 1.7% 12 14.0 1 -7.8 30 -3.4 22 2.5 13 3.4 9 -14.3 30
2021 1.3% 11 6.8 9 3.5 10 -5.6 29 2.4 11 -0.2 14 -7.5 27

While the Giants have been weak on offense and defense for years, special teams has been a relative strength. Since hiring
coordinator Thomas McGaughey in 2018, New York has been above average in special teams DVOA every season, which ex-
plains why McGaughey has survived two head coach firings. 🏈 Graham Gano was nearly perfect (22-of-23) on field goals
under 50 yards. Thanks to a lot of stalled Giants drives (26.9 yards per drive, 30th), he attempted 10 field goals of 50 or more
yards and made seven of them, both team records. Only the Bengals’ Evan McPherson attempted more field goals (11) from
that range. 🏈 Gano will have a new holder this season. The Giants signed former Browns punter Jamie Gillan and released
Riley Dixon, who had been with the team for four seasons. It’s a downgrade—Dixon had a higher gross punt value the past two
seasons—but not much of one and saves the Giants a few bucks. New York shouldn’t be punting as much anyway. Joe Judge
sent Dixon onto the field to punt 13 times from inside opponent territory last season (fourth most) and an NFL-high five times
on fourth down with 3 or fewer yards to go. 🏈 The Giants allowed an NFL-low 17.8 yards per kickoff return. They realized
little benefit from that, however, because their kickoffs were often short (their 59.0-yard average ranked 31st). As a result, they
were almost exactly average in average opponent starting field position after kickoffs (25.1-yard line). 🏈 The competition
for the kick return and punt return jobs is wide open. Before breaking his arm in Week 6 last season, C.J. Board was the Giants’
primary kick returner. He was unremarkable on 11 returns, finishing 38th out of 61 qualifying players in kick return value.
Free agent Richie James has return experience but didn’t play last season because of a knee injury. Other candidates include
Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Adoree’ Jackson, and Darnay Holmes.
 New York Jets
2021 record: 4-13 Total DVOA: -18.6% (26) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.4 wins On the Clock (0-5): 24%
Pythagorean Wins: 3.9 (31) Offense: -8.3% (22) Postseason Odds: 26.4% Mediocrity (6-8): 43%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.0 (25) Defense: 14.4% (32) Super Bowl Odds: 2.1% Playoff Contender (9-11): 26%
Average Opponent: 0.7% (13) Special Teams: 4.1% (2) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 1.8% (7) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 7%

2021: Growing pains.

2022: Running Up That Hill (A Deal with the Football God).

N ew York Jets fans are no strangers to rebuilds at this

point. This is a franchise whose last Super Bowl victory
is less recent than the Moon landing, so the process of build-
offensive disciplinarian Adam Gase? Turn to a soft-spoken,
highly regarded defensive coach in Robert Saleh. From there,
just inject as much money and draft capital into the roster as
ing, assessing, and dismantling is a cycle Gang Green knows possible. New York’s $289 million total spent on free agents
all too well. But any person who saw Broadway Joe Namath ranks third over that period, only topped by the Patriots’ his-
in his prime would agree: no era of Jets football was more toric 2021 spending spree and Jacksonville’s ludicrous $437
torturous and Sisyphean than the 2010s. million spent in two years. The Jets loaded up through the
The Jets bridged the aughts to the 2010s on the highest of top end of the draft, too, taking seven players in the first two
highs: with back-to-back AFC Championship Game berths, rounds, a league high over that span.
the only such time in franchise history. The second of these The rebuild hasn’t been without its growing pains. 2021
two games saw the Jets nearly mount a heroic comeback. Rex had its ugly stretches. These were to be somewhat expected,
Ryan’s defense held the Pittsburgh Steelers scoreless in the though. Saleh’s defenses ranked 26th and 24th in DVOA in
second half while Mark Sanchez clawed back from a 24-3 def- his first two seasons as San Francisco defensive coordinator
icit after delivering a rousing, heartfelt halftime speech. The before he hit his stride. Both Saleh and offensive coordina-
rally would fall short, 24-19. tor Mike LaFleur had to lean heavily on rookies. First-year
The Jets didn’t know it then, but they wouldn’t make it players played over 6,000 snaps for the Jets in 2021, second
back for the rest of the decade. Nearly at the peak, the boulder behind the Detroit Lions (see page 82). The crown jewel of
would roll down the mountain, and the process began anew. Douglas’ draft haul thus far, BYU’s toolsy yet unproven quar-
Since that 2010 AFC Championship Game, New York has had terback prospect Zach Wilson, is an all-in bet on patience.
four head coaches, four general managers, six quarterbacks Wilson only had one season of great college play to build his
who started at least 11 games, and zero playoff appearances. draft stock, but his eye-popping deep ball and ability to cre-
Ever tried, ever failed. ate out of structure were enough for the Jets to bite at second
The newest boulder-mover, current general manager Joe overall. They knew going in that Wilson would take time to
Douglas, began his tenure just as the last guy (Mike Maccag- develop NFL-caliber decision-making and processing, but
nan) was starting to get things on the ground, as if someone the highs from his backyard-football style of play made him
else could catch this boulder before gravity could drag it back worth the wait.
home. Douglas’ haphazardly inherited roster was full of hand- Saleh wasn’t exactly set up to be an overnight success in
me-downs in every sense of the word. The quarterback, Sam 2021. Converting from 3-4 to 4-3 base was tough enough,
Darnold, was one year removed from a third overall selection. but the biggest challenge came from the secondary. Behind
His coach, alleged quarterback whisperer Adam Gase, was that Wide-9 front is a Cover-3 scheme, and Saleh puts spe-
hired just five months before Douglas. The Jets didn’t even cific emphasis on cornerback play. The Jets had the lowest
let Douglas have his own offseason. Hired in June of 2019, safety-to-cornerback cover ratio in the NFL last season, mean-
Douglas was handed a free-agency class and draft already ing the coverage was almost always placed in the hands of the
handled by Maccagnan. One last swan song before beginning Jets’ extremely young cornerback group. Rookie cornerbacks
the cycle anew. Michael Carter and Brandin Echols finished second and third
Thus began Douglas’ ascent. It took just 18 months for him in defensive snaps played in the Jets secondary, topped only
to strip this grounded airliner for parts. By the end of the 2020 by second-year corner Bryce Hall. In all, seven of the top 10
season, the Jets arguably had the worst roster in football top defensive backs by snap count—including the top five—were
to bottom, just as Douglas intended. It gave him the runway to drafted in 2020 or 2021.
completely reinvent the team. It didn’t help matters that the Jets defense was plagued by
After just two offseasons, the Jets are almost unrecognizable injuries. While the Baltimore Ravens made history for their
from the Gase-Darnold era. It started by reversing course on poor injury luck in 2021, the Jets very quietly suffered major
the coaching staff. Want to pivot away from the googly-eyed losses as well. The Jets’ 158.5 AGL finished as the sixth-larg-
194
 NEW YORK JETS 195

2021 NYJ DVOA by Week

2022 Jets Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 BAL 7 at DEN 13 at MIN
2 at CLE 8 NE 14 at BUF 40%
3 CIN 9 BUF 15 DET 20%
4 at PIT 10 BYE 16 JAX (Thu.)
0%
5 MIA 11 at NE 17 at SEA
6 at GB 12 CHI 18 at MIA -20%

-40%

-60%

est total since 2001 when adjusted to 16 games. The Jets were -80%

the only team to surpass the record-setting Ravens’ losses on -100%

either side of the ball, with their defense’s 101.3 AGL finish-
ing 13.3 worse than Baltimore. Major losses such as Marcus
Maye, Carl Lawson, and Lamarcus Joyner made an already
bare-bones defense downright skeletal. The Jets finished dead terthought in Adam Gase’s offense to 10th in receiving DYAR
last in both defensive DVOA and defensive pass DVOA. among running backs under LaFleur. If $37-million man Co-
The offense didn’t fare much better. Wilson must have as- rey Davis doesn’t click in his first season, there isn’t much to
sumed that the heroics he put on at BYU would translate right lose. If he can’t get it in his second, that’s another story.
to the NFL. Wilson’s earliest games were ugly, which is ironic In three short years, Joe Douglas has completely redesigned
because he tried to turn every other play into highlight-reel the New York Jets as he saw fit. The product hasn’t always
material. The Jets drafted Wilson for what he does on the mar- been pretty, but it’s all a part of his process. All but two of the
gins—the improvisation out of a broken pocket, connecting Jets’ projected 2022 starters (C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Wil-
with streaking receivers deep downfield—but his down-to- liams) were either drafted or signed during Douglas’ tenure.
down performance left a lot to be desired. He almost never He has his coach in place and his quarterback primed. The
checked down or took the easy yards. The desire to always try foundation for this team has been laid, and now it’s up for the
and take the shot came back to bite him almost immediately. Jets to execute.
New England picked off Wilson four times in their Week 2 No more excuses, else you risk losing your grip on the
matchup. boulder.
If nine interceptions in five games didn’t teach Wilson a The defense is primed for a major improvement after some
lesson, Mike White sure did. After Wilson missed time with returns from injury and quality adds in the secondary. While
a PCL sprain, White took the reins and promptly made his- the Jets lost Maye, they gained Super Bowl-champion safety
tory. White threw for 405 yards on 45 attempts in a Week 8 Jordan Whitehead, who has already emerged as a leader on
upset of the Cincinnati Bengals. Almost exclusively opting for defense early into camp. Whitehead thrived in a Cover-2 sys-
checkdowns (his average completion gained only 4.1 yards tem down in Tampa Bay, boasting the athletic ability to play
through the air), White had his jersey enshrined in Canton centerfield and the physicality to match up against tight ends
for his record-setting 37 completions in an NFL debut. Sure, despite his smaller (5-foot-10) size. Whitehead also gets heav-
everyone eventually adapted by sitting on underneath routes ily involved in the run game, lurking down low on the line of
because it was clear as day White couldn’t beat them over the scrimmage.
top. But you know who could? Zach Wilson. Wilson heeded New cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner
the lesson, but by the time he could execute, Elijah Moore and immediately enter the building as the two best corners on the
Corey Davis had both gone down with season-ending inju- roster, but giving Hall, Carter, and Echols those top-end reps
ries. Wilson made it work with guys such as Braxton Berrios, in a rebuilding year gives this secondary significantly better
but it didn’t have the same effectiveness. The late redress to depth. Reed has already spent time under Saleh, playing his
Wilson’s processing wasn’t enough to drag him up from the first two years in San Francisco, but it’s the work he has done
depths of the efficiency metrics basement as he finished 34th in Seattle that will help the Jets secondary bounce back. His
of 34 quarterbacks in both DYAR and DVOA. 62% success rate was 12th-best among all corners; only one
Learning that lesson is important now, though. The fact member of the Jets (Hall) had his success rate eclipse 50%.
that Wilson was even able to change his game upon his re- And while there’s a cruel irony in spending paragraphs grill-
turn from injury illustrates the importance of a down year like ing a Jets secondary for being too young and inexperienced,
2021. Despite the godawful numbers, a down season enabled then stating that they’ll be saved by a prospect younger than
an extremely green secondary to learn, trial-by-fire style. It all of them, that’s the kind of upside Gardner can bring to
allowed Elijah Moore to ease his way into the offense, clos- a defense. Gardner was a ball hawk in college who allowed
ing out with 34 receptions for 459 yards and five touchdowns an FBS low of 0.1 yards per coverage snap according to SIS
in a six-game stretch before going down for the year. It gave charting. Besides, any rookie nicknamed “Sauce” who’s will-
opportunities to guys like Ty Johnson, who went from an af- ing to shell out $50,000 just to wear No. 1 is calling his shot.
196 NEW YORK JETS

Edge rusher John Franklin-Myers turned his first season as Uzomah and Tyler Conklin, both genuine offensive weapons
a full-time starter into the best of his career, leading the Jets on their respective teams a year ago. Uzomah finished 10th
in hurries. Now he gets to play opposite Lawson, who was an- in DYAR and is coming off of his best season, as is Conklin,
ticipated to be the Nick Bosa of this defense before tearing his although he performed more efficiently as a secondary tight
Achilles in preseason. As Lawsons recovers from his injury, end.
he’ll likely rotate with first-round pick Jermaine Johnson who, In front of it all is a solid offensive line that, if at full capac-
though unrefined in his pass-rushing technique, is an absolute ity, has the potential to be truly special. Alijah Vera-Tucker
force off the edge. That doesn’t even mention interior line- put on a very respectable performance as a rookie, and George
man Quinnen Williams, who split the sack lead with Franklin- Fant took a significant leap as a pass-blocker in 2021. Pair
Myers. While Sheldon Rankins hasn’t been the pass-rusher them with the ever-trustworthy Connor McGovern and newly-
he was before his own Achilles injury in 2018, his situational acquired Laken Tomlinson (who’s also off the heels of his best
pressure would be just enough of a contribution to make this a season—man, the Jets are buying high), and four-fifths of this
formidable defensive front. line is in fantastic shape. The biggest question mark remains
The real injection of talent, though, comes on the offensive Mekhi Becton, whose knee injury extended well past its four-
side of the ball. LaFleur should be over the moon about the to six-week timeframe and through the end of the season.
toys New York brought in this offseason. The Jets ran a lu- There were questions about whether Becton would even play
dicrous amount of gadget plays in 2021—partly by design, another snap in a Jets uniform, but all signs currently point to
partly out of a necessity to generate offense. It’s a credit to the him making a return.
athleticism Douglas has acquired to help the Jets run a scheme That being said, none of this matters for 2022 if Zach Wil-
that demands athletic versatility from its skill position players. son does not take the next step. He needs to be the cornerstone
Berrios and Moore finished fourth and seventh, respectively, of this whole operation, but that clearly hasn’t been the case
in rushing DYAR among wide receivers. Now add to the mix early. Three of the Jets’ five best games by passing DVOA
Garrett Wilson, who put up a 51-yard rushing touchdown in happened in Wilson’s absence. His penchant for forcing the
one of his last games at Ohio State. home-run shot is one thing, but there were stretches where it
Wilson helps unlock a lot of this Jets offense. Moore played looked as if Wilson couldn’t run an NFL offense. His -10.3%
primarily as a slot receiver while at Ole Miss, but he struggled CPOE was worst in the league by two whole percentage
in the position during his rookie season. During his six-week points. He finished with the league’s fifth-worst DVOA on
surge, Moore thrived outside despite his undersized frame. He short passes (0 to 9 yards downfield) and the worst DVOA on
generated a 50.9% DVOA over those six games when split medium passes (10 to 19 yards downfield). His -569 DYAR
outside, compared with a -10.2% DVOA while in the slot over ranked 16th worst among all 300 rookie quarterbacks in the
that same timeframe. Wilson, on the other hand, played lim- DVOA era.
ited snaps in the slot but thrived in the position. His separation It’s not all bad, though. If Jets fans want a kernel of hope,
ability and in-air body control make Wilson ideal for the out- look within the AFC East. On that “worst rookies by DYAR”
side, but occasional reps inside with some help from Berrios list, Wilson sits just two slots ahead of Josh Allen, a fellow
can free up Moore to establish a greater role outside. Whether division member whose playstyle and historically unprec-
Wilson is good enough to push Davis down the depth chart edented career turnaround gave the Jets the confidence to roll
remains to be seen, but his presence alone elevates the rest of the dice on Wilson in the first place. While it took Allen until
the receiving room. his third season to take the leap, he didn’t benefit from the
Breece Hall has a similar effect in the running back room. arsenal that Zach Wilson has around him right now. Loading
As valiant an effort as Michael Carter put up in 2021, he does this offense with young, versatile talent, adding a solid offen-
not have the frame to be an every-down back in the NFL. The sive line, and putting them all in a brilliantly creative scheme
physical pounding already took a toll on him as he missed is about the best scenario to surround a struggling quarterback
three weeks in the middle of the season with a sprained ankle with.
and suffered a concussion in Week 17. In steps the 5-foot-11, The Jets have put together a solid roster on paper. Now
220-pound Hall, whose patience and home-run ability makes it’s time to see it execute. The aspirations don’t have to be
him the ideal every-down workhorse. With that role occupied too high. No one’s asking this team to make a run at an AFC
by Hall, Carter now feels like the ultimate two in this one- Championship. All we ask for is progress up that hill. That
two punch. Carter’s effectiveness should jump if only because starts with improved cornerback play and consistency at the
he’ll be taking fewer hits. Ty Johnson can take on a role as a wide receiver position, but most importantly, it starts with
more specialized pass-catching back instead of taking RB2 Zach Wilson. A good Jets team could steal some wins against
responsibilities. If the Jets did anything this offseason, they tougher opponents in a vaunted AFC. If Wilson doesn’t step
drafted force multipliers for this offense. up and the Jets are stuck with yet another pick in the top half of
The position that arguably got the biggest makeover was the draft, questions will start to rise about whether Douglas is
tight end. Ryan Griffin was a relative non-factor on offense the man for the job—and Wilson might find himself replaced
last year, and while Tyler Kroft did post a 4.0% DVOA that so another young quarterback can start rolling that boulder.
ranked 19th amongst tight ends, he saw just 25 passes. Jump
forward to now, when that duo has been replaced by C.J. Cale Clinton
 NEW YORK JETS 197

2021 Jets by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at CAR L 2% 14 19 252 381 0 -64% -30% 33% -2% Total DVOA -8.3% 22 14.4% 32
2 NE L 3% 6 25 336 260 -4 0% -22% -25% -3% Unadjusted VOA -10.8% 24 15.6% 32
3 at DEN L 0% 0 26 162 343 -1 -62% -57% 6% 2% Weighted Trend -4.1% 19 14.3% 32
4 TEN W 59% 27 24 355 430 -1 2% 8% 2% -4% Variance 7.4% 16 5.9% 15
5 at ATL L 27% 20 27 230 450 1 -29% -14% 31% 15% Average Opponent -3.3% 1 -1.6% 25
6 BYE
7 at NE L 0% 13 54 299 551 -3 -64% -10% 44% -10% Passing -5.8% 27 29.0% 32
8 CIN W 98% 34 31 511 318 -2 37% 20% -17% 1% Rushing -4.6% 15 -2.6% 26
9 at IND L 5% 30 45 486 532 -2 -37% -3% 37% 4%
First Down -2.6% 20 4.1% 22
10 BUF L 0% 17 45 366 489 -3 -82% -19% 64% 1%
Second Down -14.9% 26 18.7% 32
11 MIA L 39% 17 24 380 388 0 -6% 16% 18% -4%
Third Down -8.5% 23 27.8% 31
12 at HOU W 43% 21 14 266 202 0 -22% -39% -29% -12%
13 PHI L 23% 18 33 281 418 -1 12% 12% 13% 13% First Half -14.6% 28 11.7% 31
14 NO L 6% 9 30 256 344 0 -6% 0% 20% 14% Second Half -2.3% 21 17.4% 32
15 at MIA L 9% 24 31 228 379 2 -20% -6% 18% 5%
16 JAX W 97% 26 21 373 384 1 14% 0% 16% 30% Red Zone -9.8% 25 -4.4% 13
17 TB L 52% 24 28 374 467 0 41% 30% 4% 15% Late and Close -5.8% 23 14.7% 29
18 at BUF L 0% 10 27 53 424 0 -70% -73% 5% 7%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 5-11 5.6 4.9 298 382 -4 -19.2% 27 -10.7% 25 5.6% 22 -3.0% 25 37.7 19 9.0 4 27.1 13 25.6 27 25.9 13
2018 4-12 5.3 5.6 333 441 -10 -17.0% 26 -20.2% 29 4.9% 22 8.1% 1 47.2 23 23.2 9 26.4 19 26.0 23 26.0 13
2019 7-9 5.6 6.2 276 359 -4 -17.7% 26 -25.4% 32 -4.2% 11 3.4% 4 76.4 31 83.7 32 27.1 9 25.7 23 26.5 5
2020 2-14 2.8 3.3 243 457 0 -30.5% 32 -20.5% 31 4.7% 21 -5.3% 29 46.6 22 77.3 31 26.7 18 26.1 21 26.3 10
2021 4-13 3.9 5.7 310 504 -13 -18.6% 26 -8.3% 22 14.4% 32 4.1% 2 57.1 26 101.3 32 26.7 14 25.3 32 25.9 19

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

NYJ Offense NYJ Offense vs. Opponents NYJ Defense NYJ Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 60% 5.1 -6.5% 25% Base 22% 5.5 3.9% 57% Base 20% 5.7 12.0% 11 48% 5.9 16.4%
12 20% 5.0 -17.7% 56% Nickel 66% 5.3 -7.9% 30% Nickel 73% 6.3 12.5% 12 27% 6.8 13.5%
10 8% 6.4 34.2% 13% Dime+ 11% 4.8 2.2% 6% Dime+ 6% 6.9 80.1% 21 8% 6.9 12.2%
21 5% 5.6 -3.7% 64% Goal Line 1% -0.3 -48.8% 71% Goal Line 2% -0.1 -24.5% 13 5% 5.3 14.4%
20 2% 5.7 24.1% 53% 611 3% 6.0 25.3%
611 2% 8.4 34.9% 63% 22 3% 6.4 48.7%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 39% 16 Form: Single Back 79% 23 Rush 3 3.2% 26 4 DB 20% 25 Play Action 22% 28
Runs, first down 46% 23 Form: Empty Back 9% 13 Rush 4 70.9% 14 5 DB 73% 6 Offensive Motion 58% 3
Runs, second-long 17% 31 Form: Multi Back 11% 11 Rush 5 20.2% 13 6+ DB 6% 24 Avg Box (Off) 6.51 13
Runs, power sit. 54% 21 Pers: 3+ WR 71% 8 Rush 6+ 5.7% 11 Man Coverage 32% 10 Avg Box (Def) 6.79 1
Runs, behind 2H 23% 29 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 24% 26 Edge Rusher Sacks 31.3% 31 CB by Sides 84% 9 Offensive Pace 30.68 13
Pass, ahead 2H 42% 26 Pers: 6+ OL 3% 14 Interior DL Sacks 37.5% 8 S/CB Cover Ratio 18% 32 Defensive Pace 32.08 28
Run-Pass Options 7% 20 Shotgun/Pistol 69% 12 Second Level Sacks 31.3% 5 DB Blitz 13% 8 Go for it on 4th 0.98 20
198 NEW YORK JETS

New York averaged a league-low 3.58 yards on RPOs. 🏈 Jets receivers dropped 40 passes last year, the second-highest
total in the league behind Jacksonville. 🏈 The Jets tied the Patriots for last place (16%) in how often they threw to the player
we had tagged as the No. 1 receiver, primarily Corey Davis. The Jets were also tied with Buffalo for last place in how often
they threw to tight ends (13%). On the other hand, New York threw a league-high 31% of passes to “other receivers” who were
not No. 1 or No. 2. 🏈 New York tied for the league lead with 6.5 yards per play with six linemen. The Jets also passed the
ball on a league-high 42% of their six-lineman plays. 🏈 The Jets led the NFL with 200 yards of special teams penalties.
🏈 Gang Green has got to find a pass rush off the edge. This was the third straight year New York ranked 31st or 32nd in the
percentage of sacks that came from edge rushers. The Jets had the league’s worst DVOA (30.8%) and ranked 30th in yards per
play (7.4) when sending the standard four pass-rushers.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
Z.Wilson -569 -32.3% 426 1954 4.6 5.2 55.9% 9 11 E.Moore 23 -8.9% 77 43 538 12.5 4.8 5 56%
M.White 161 6.7% 136 935 6.9 6.4 66.7% 5 8 J.Crowder* 2 -12.3% 70 50 447 8.9 3.4 2 71%
J.Johnson* 62 9.3% 47 320 6.8 5.6 64.4% 3 1 B.Berrios -3 -13.2% 66 46 431 9.2 5.6 2 71%
J.Flacco 98 20.1% 44 315 7.2 6.5 65.9% 3 0 C.Davis 68 1.2% 59 34 492 14.5 3.8 4 58%
K.Cole* 102 12.3% 51 28 449 16.0 3.0 1 55%
D.Mims -51 -41.7% 23 8 133 16.6 6.1 0 35%
Rushing J.Smith 1 -11.7% 17 8 113 14.1 1.9 0 47%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc D.J.Montgomery -14 -43.4% 6 3 36 12.0 5.0 0 50%
M.Carter 88 5.6% 147 639 4.3 4 0 51% R.Griffin* -27 -16.9% 42 27 261 9.7 5.5 2 64%
T.Coleman 36 1.3% 84 356 4.2 0 0 54% T.Kroft* 19 4.0% 25 16 173 10.8 4.6 1 64%
T.Johnson -3 -9.7% 61 238 3.9 2 1 46% T.Conklin -41 -14.8% 87 61 593 9.7 5.3 3 70%
A.Walter* 6 -2.9% 26 101 3.9 1 0 42% C.J.Uzomah 75 11.4% 63 49 493 10.1 6.1 5 78%
Z.Wilson 38 13.1% 25 189 7.6 4 0 - M.Carter 7 -11.6% 56 37 325 8.8 9.3 0 66%
L.Perine 8 16.5% 8 31 3.9 0 0 25% T.Johnson 108 22.4% 55 34 372 10.9 9.8 2 62%
B.Berrios 57 83.6% 7 40 5.7 2 0 - T.Coleman -14 -30.4% 16 11 49 4.5 8.0 0 69%
E.Moore 48 116.1% 5 54 10.8 1 0 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Alijah Vera-Tucker LG 23 16/16 1026 6 1.5 19 6 Laurent Duvernay-Tardif* RG 31 8/7 390 2 1.0 4 2
Morgan Moses* RT 31 17/16 1020 3 4.0 26 7 Dan Feeney C/LG 28 16/5 184 0 0.5 2 1
Connor McGovern C 29 15/15 972 3 2.5 7 9 Laken Tomlinson LG 30 17/17 1091 5 0.0 12 8
George Fant LT 30 15/15 887 4 3.5 16 5 Nate Herbig RG 24 16/5 481 3 0.0 5 3
Greg Van Roten* RG 32 17/10 698 2 3.0 17 10

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.29 3.80 31 69% 8 21% 25 0.91 30 0.17 32 10.6% 18 52 9.2% 30 39.8% 32 14.0% 20 21
2020 3.88 4.34 17 62% 22 15% 10 1.09 25 0.33 31 10.1% 16 43 8.1% 29 31.7% 31 14.2% 25 21
2021 4.19 4.06 22 64% 21 18% 20 1.17 19 0.74 11 11.9% 17 53 8.6% 28 30.1% 29 15.3% 25 32
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.76 (11) Left Tackle: 4.80 (7) Mid/Guard: 3.94 (25) Right Tackle: 3.34 (30) Right End: 3.90 (21)

When you give up 53 sacks, fourth in the NFL in 2021, you give them up in all kinds of ways. Only Carolina gave up more
sacks marked as “overall pressure” and only Cincinnati gave up more sacks marked as “rusher untouched.” 🏈 Alijah Vera-
Tucker was a welcome addition as a rookie, immediately stepping up to the plate by playing the most snaps of any Jets offensive
lineman. Vera-Tucker allowed just 1.5 sacks and shined as a run-blocker with six blown rushing blocks on 329 snaps. 🏈
Mekhi Becton mysteriously disappeared for most of the 2021 season. He was initially expected to miss four to six weeks with a
knee injury, but he just … never came back. Becton was already one of the biggest players in the NFL prior to his injury: a burly
6-foot-7 and 363 pounds. He reportedly ballooned up past the 400-pound mark while being unable to work out. It got to the
point where Saleh made a direct-to-camera address asking Becton to come home. Becton has since begun work with a nutrition-
ist and is shedding the weight. The Jets say he’ll be ready to play right tackle by the time the preseason starts. 🏈 If Becton
can return to something resembling his rookie season, it will be a big improvement over his 2021 substitute, Morgan Moses.
 NEW YORK JETS 199

Now with the Ravens, Moses’ 33 blown blocks were 13th most among all tackles in 2021. 🏈 George Fant answered the
call in his second year with the Jets. Fant had a career-low 2.9% blown block rate while also playing the highest single-season
snap count of his career. 🏈 Connor McGovern is a model of consistency. The Jets center has gone three straight years with
a sub-2.0% blown block rate and played 899 or more snaps for four straight seasons while drawing just five offensive penalties
since 2019. 🏈 Laken Tomlinson is coming off arguably his best season in the league. Finishing three snaps shy of a new
career high, Tomlinson posted a career-low 1.8% blown block rate.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Sheldon Rankins 28 DT 16 641 32 3.7% 82 25 10 4 24 83% 5 1.8 16 4.0 4 14 0
Quinnen Williams 25 DT 15 633 56 6.9% 19 45 11 3 41 78% 14 2.2 30 6.0 5 16 2
Folorunso Fatukasi* 27 DT 15 559 46 5.7% 43 41 10 3 45 91% 1 1.1 1 0.0 6 6 0
Nathan Shepherd 29 DT 17 495 28 3.1% 96 17 3 1 25 68% 56 2.3 33 0.0 8 13 0
Solomon Thomas 27 DT 17 554 36 4.0% 79 26 11 3 23 65% 68 3.3 85 3.5 8 16 3

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
John Franklin-Myers 26 DE 16 717 36 4.2% 69 30 13 4 27 78% 24 2.3 35 6.0 10 27 1
Shaq Lawson 28 DE 14 535 25 3.3% 86 20 10 0 20 80% 15 1.3 9 1.0 3 12 1
Bryce Huff 24 DE 9 337 14 2.9% 96 10 3 0 10 70% 54 2.8 62 2.0 5 8 0
Ronald Blair 29 DE 8 313 28 6.5% 26 20 4 2 24 71% 47 2.8 61 1.0 3 8 0
Tim Ward 25 DE 11 191 14 2.4% -- 7 0 2 9 56% -- 4.7 -- 0.0 0 4 2
Jacob Martin 27 DE 17 698 26 2.9% 95 24 12 6 17 88% 7 0.8 4 4.0 3 29 3

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
C.J. Mosley 30 MLB 16 997 170 19.7% 4 81 21 15 100 58% 42 4.1 53 2.0 1 3 38 42% 55 7.7 58 2 0
Quincy Williams 26 OLB 16 860 112 13.0% 36 63 21 15 77 58% 40 3.5 24 2.0 2 4 38 53% 30 5.1 14 5 0
Jarrad Davis* 28 OLB 9 209 24 4.9% 85 6 0 7 10 50% 62 4.4 67 0.0 0 1 8 25% -- 7.8 -- 0 0
Del'Shawn Phillips 26 OLB 17 160 20 2.2% -- 9 3 3 11 45% -- 6.1 -- 1.0 0 0 4 25% -- 13.5 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.16 3.00 1 52% 3 31% 1 1.01 6 0.56 7 17.5% 5 35 6.2% 26 30.4% 17 12.0% 29
2020 4.09 3.75 5 70% 25 20% 8 1.06 7 0.89 24 17.3% 2 31 5.9% 20 25.6% 13 14.5% 13
2021 4.42 4.43 21 59% 5 20% 8 1.28 24 0.80 24 17.4% 4 33 6.0% 22 22.1% 31 12.8% 22
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.67 (21) Left Tackle: 4.90 (25) Mid/Guard: 4.41 (19) Right Tackle: 4.14 (13) Right End: 3.57 (8)

The Jets had a league-leading 66.4 adjusted games lost in their front seven. 🏈 C.J. Mosley had a bit of an up-and-down
year upon his return to the Jets. He led all defensive players with 166 total tackles, but also finished with a career low in hurries.
Furthermore, he was an unprecedented liability in coverage. Mosley’s 84.0% completion rate allowed beat his previous worst by
17.5%. His 294 passing yards allowed were sixth most among linebackers. 🏈 John Franklin-Myers can generate pressure from
just about anywhere. The versatility he provides by being able to get to the quarterback while lined up inside or while on the edge
allows the Jets to put their best four linemen out there in a pinch, with Franklin-Myers filling as needed. Add new arrival Solomon
Thomas, who also has played both edge and inside in his career, and the Jets have a lot of options. 🏈 Sheldon Rankins was not
the interior pass-rushing threat the Jets hoped for when signing him back in March, but at least his talent showed in important mo-
ments. Rankins’ key pressure in overtime of Week 4 prevented a Tennessee Titans first down, setting up a missed field goal on the
next play to give the Jets their first win of the year. Rankins was his most effective against the run, finishing fifth among defensive
tackles with an 83% run stop rate. 🏈 Carl Lawson missed all of 2021 with a torn Achilles, with reports optimistic he’ll make
a full recovery. Let’s hope so, because before his injury, Lawson was on his way to becoming an elite edge rusher. Lawson ranked
eighth among all defensive players with 58 total pressures (sacks, hurries, and hits) in 2020. 🏈 Quincy Williams plays like
he’s sprinting downhill on almost every snap. That fervor and aggression can often work against him, completely taking Williams
out of some plays, but it’s fun to watch when he makes contact. Where Williams surprisingly excels is in pass coverage. Williams
finished the season with five passes defended and just 5.1 yards per pass allowed, 14th among linebackers. 🏈 First-round
pick Jermaine Johnson (Florida State) has the size and strength to be a quality edge rushing presence for the Jets right away. He
200 NEW YORK JETS

lacks finesse to his game, but Johnson’s a straight-up mauler on the defensive line. He should see plenty of rotational time playing
alongside Franklin-Myers and Lawson. 🏈 Fourth-round pick Micheal Clemons joins the great history of misspelled Micheals
in the NFL along with Burrow and Spurlock. Clemons has the ideal frame for an edge rusher (6-foot-5, 263 pounds) but came out
poorly in our SackSEER projections because he wasn’t explosive in drills and only had 12.5 sacks in four years at Texas A&M.
🏈 Free-agent addition Jacob Martin is an undersized edge rusher with a quick get-off and strong motor; last year, he had nearly
twice as many hurries as any other Houston Texans defender.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Bryce Hall 25 CB 17 1070 95 10.3% 20 40 12 4 21 57% 17 5.4 30 92 23.7% 13 13.1 53% 45 6.3 25 16 0
Michael Carter 23 CB 15 777 76 9.4% 31 33 9 9 26 54% 21 4.2 11 51 18.1% 59 9.5 45% 74 8.5 65 5 0
Brandin Echols 25 CB 14 761 72 9.5% 26 26 8 12 11 45% 38 8.0 66 63 22.9% 19 12.5 48% 66 8.1 58 9 2
Ashtyn Davis 26 SS 13 746 65 9.3% 52 17 11 12 25 16% 72 10.0 68 18 6.7% 56 10.8 44% 58 11.1 70 3 2
Javelin Guidry 24 CB 17 486 47 5.1% -- 19 10 7 16 50% -- 5.4 -- 33 18.7% -- 12.4 48% -- 7.8 -- 3 0
Elijah Riley 24 SS 8 386 46 11.1% -- 17 4 6 31 45% -- 5.2 -- 11 7.9% -- 14.7 36% -- 12.0 -- 1 0
Marcus Maye* 29 FS 6 363 48 14.8% -- 18 8 5 29 41% -- 5.8 -- 15 11.4% -- 9.2 67% -- 6.1 -- 2 0
Sharrod Neasman 31 SS 11 225 16 2.7% -- 6 5 4 8 25% -- 10.4 -- 3 3.7% -- 23.3 67% -- 14.3 -- 3 1
Jarrod Wilson* 28 FS 9 184 13 2.7% -- 2 2 1 8 13% -- 7.5 -- 4 7.1% -- 23.5 50% -- 15.5 -- 0 0
D.J. Reed 26 CB 14 1000 88 10.7% 14 32 13 8 29 31% 59 6.4 43 71 20.6% 35 12.2 62% 12 5.9 18 10 2
Jordan Whitehead 25 SS 14 796 81 11.1% 31 41 15 13 34 56% 9 3.5 2 37 11.2% 18 7.7 59% 23 6.4 29 8 2

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 18 8.7% 24 16.9% 27 1.0% 18 18.0% 31 4.6% 13 -5.1% 12 -13.0% 5
2020 28 12.6% 22 22.5% 29 -4.9% 12 10.9% 26 10.9% 27 16.5% 27 -5.6% 12
2021 32 4.4% 20 6.3% 23 33.2% 32 -7.3% 16 29.6% 32 26.7% 31 24.8% 28

For the first time since 2015, the New York Jets finished in the top 20 in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. Granted, “top
20” feels like a technicality because they finished 20th, but it’s progress! 🏈 Bryce Hall was one of 13 cornerbacks to play
over 1,000 snaps in 2021, drawing the second-most targets among those corners. That much work is a tall task for any fifth-
round pick entering his second season, but Hall was able to rise to the occasion. His success rate improved from 40% to 53%,
and he finished tied for sixth with 16 passes defensed. Hall has been running with the first team during spring drills, but he’ll
almost certainly manage some easier assignments with D.J. Reed and Ahmad Gardner now in the fold. 🏈 The fourth overall
pick, Sauce Gardner can do a bit of everything. He was touted for his elite ability to run with most receivers in man-to-man
coverage coming out of the draft, but Saleh has praised Gardner for his ability in zone coverage. On top of all that, he did not
allow a single touchdown in his three seasons at Cincinnati. 🏈 Michael Carter II had an interesting season for someone
who took the second-most cornerback snaps on the roster as a fifth-round rookie. Carter was by no means elite—he ranked
74th out of 80 cornerbacks in success rate—but he did a good job minimizing the biggest mistakes as a rookie. He allowed one
touchdown and was flagged just twice despite taking over 400 snaps in coverage. 🏈 Jordan Whitehead has never been much
of a ballhawk, but he makes up for it in his athleticism and physicality. Whitehead finished second among safeties in average
depth of run tackle and ninth in run stop rate. 🏈 Ashtyn Davis saw an increased role after Marcus Maye went down, but it
was rough sledding most of the way. Only five qualifying safeties gave up more yards per pass in coverage than Davis, who
has only four passes defensed in two NFL seasons. Davis was used a lot more as a blitzer under Gregg Williams but rushed the
passer only six times under Saleh.
 NEW YORK JETS 201

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 3.4% 4 -4.8 24 6.5 1 0.6 12 10.1 4 4.7 4 1.3 16
2020 -5.3% 29 -10.0 30 -0.1 19 -4.0 24 -12.8 30 0.3 15 -6.7 24
2021 4.1% 2 -7.0 27 5.4 7 16.0 1 3.6 7 4.0 5 -4.4 21

The Jets improved across the board in special teams, and 2020 now looks like a real outlier. Jets special teams have ranked
in the top four of DVOA in three of the last four years. 🏈 Braxton Berrios broke out as a quality return option. He finished
second among all kick returners, worth an estimated 14.0 points of field position over average. He wasn’t nearly as dominant on
punts but still finished fourth with 4.3 points above average. 🏈 Punter Braden Mann missed six weeks with a knee injury, but
otherwise was much improved over 2020. His gross value (assuming average returns) jumped from -8.4 points below average
in 2020 to 1.4 points above average in 2021. Mann was also near the top of the league in gross kickoff value. 🏈 The Jets
moved on from Matt Amendola as their placekicker after he went 7-for-12 on field goals between Weeks 7 and 12. Replacement
Eddy Piñeiro finished off the season by going 8-for-8, including 4-for-4 past 40 yards. Piñeiro will have a camp battle with
former Rams and Cowboys kicker Greg Zuerlein; Dallas ranked 20th in field goal value last year.
 Philadelphia Eagles
2021 record: 9-8 Total DVOA: 3.8% (15) 2022 Mean Projection: 10.0 wins On the Clock (0-5): 5%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.0 (13) Offense: 8.1% (11) Postseason Odds: 66.6% Mediocrity (6-8): 22%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.0 (26) Defense: 4.7% (25) Super Bowl Odds: 12.3% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: -2.7% (28) Special Teams: 0.3% (15) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -3.8% (32) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 29%

2021: Underdog fighters from Philadelphia try to prove themselves against the world champions.

2022: The Eagles, seeking to reclaim the NFC East title, train for Christmas Eve fight against bitter nemesis.

N ine wins and a playoff appearance—who saw that coming?

Not the fans in Philadelphia. Not the sportsbooks in Las
Vegas. Not your favorite prognosticators at Football Outsiders.
Table 1: Pass-Happy Eagles
vs. Run-Happy Eagles
The 2021 Eagles truly beat the odds. Their mean win pro-
jection in last year’s Almanac: 7.3. Their chances of making Metric Weeks 1-7 Weeks 8-17
the playoffs: 27.6%. Offensive VOA 4.0% 13.9%
With a new head coach and new starting quarterback, they Offensive DVOA 5.5% 10.3%
were one of the NFL’s greatest success stories, especially after Pass DVOA 18.2% 18.5%
a 2-5 start. Until they weren’t. Run DVOA 1.8% 9.9%
The Eagles made the playoffs, yes, but once there, they Pts/G 22.7 32.4
failed to meet the moment. In a 31-15 wild-card loss to the 1D/G 19.6 24.1
Buccaneers, they were thoroughly outclassed on offense, de- Passes/G 34.7 27.1
fense, and special teams. Runs/G 23.4 44.1
“This game does not define us,” Jalen Hurts said afterward. First-down run rate (before halftime) 38.5% 67.2%
Oh, really?
This was a measuring-stick game for the Eagles, a chance The Buccaneers clearly were not intimidated. Their defense
for them to prove they were a better team than the one the Buc- loaded the box and crowded the line of scrimmage, daring
caneers dominated in Week 6. They had come a long way since Hurts to beat them with his arm. He could not, and the first
then, thanks in large part to a startling discovery: that it was, in three quarters unfolded just as they had in Week 6. Philadel-
fact, legal to run with the football. Nick Sirianni and his assistant phia struggled to move the chains (seven first downs to Tampa
coaches tested the idea in Week 7 against the Raiders and liked Bay’s 20), score points (zero to Tampa Bay’s 31), and limit
it so much that they embraced it completely from that point turnovers (three to Tampa Bay’s zero). Hurts’ stat line in that
forward. In each of the next seven games, the Eagles gained at span: 16-of-32, 140 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions,
least 175 rushing yards, becoming the first team since the 1985 plus six runs for 28 yards.
Bears to run at such a clip. Their newfound commitment was The questions buried by the Eagles’ second-half turnaround
most pronounced on first down early in games. Over the first resurfaced, none larger than those about Hurts, whose flaws
seven weeks, no team passed at a higher rate (61.5%). Over the were on full display in the playoff loss. He dropped his eyes.
next 10 weeks, no team rushed at a higher rate (67.2%). He was skittish in the pocket. He failed to see open receivers,
As Philadelphia trampled over opponent after oppo- and when he did see them, he was a tick late in getting the ball
nent, early-season skepticism gave way to wishful thinking. to them. He had a bad game, arguably the worst of his young
Though the Eagles hadn’t beaten a playoff-bound opponent career, but it would be a mistake to dismiss it as an aberra-
(0-6), commentators hyped them anyway, crowning them The tion, mainly because it wasn’t. His flaws had been there all
Team Nobody Wants to Face. Their improvement on offense along; they were just easier to overlook because the Eagles
was real, but the extent of the improvement was somewhat were winning.
of a mirage. Their production had about as much to do with You might have heard that Hurts improved as a passer
who they played as how they played. From Week 8 through as the Eagles leaned more heavily on their run game, that
Week 17 (we’re excluding the regular-season finale against the shift lifted the burden on him to carry the offense. That
the Cowboys because Hurts and most other Eagles starters did sounds good, but the numbers don’t bear that out. From
not play), they faced only one above-average defense (New Week 8 on (again excluding Week 18), Hurts saw an uptick
Orleans). Once we take strength of opponent into account— in yards per pass, but his completion rate stayed about the
note the differences between VOA and DVOA in Table 1—we same, his touchdown rate decreased, and his interception
see that the offense was slightly better than it seemed early in rate increased. His passing DVOA fell into negative territory
the season and good, but not great, late in the season. (Table 2).
202
 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 203

2021 PHI DVOA by Week

2022 Eagles Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at DET 7 BYE 13 TEN
2 MIN (Mon.) 8 PIT 14 at NYG 40%
3 at WAS 9 at HOU (Thu.) 15 at CHI 20%
4 JAX 10 WAS (Mon.) 16 at DAL (Sat.)
0%
5 at ARI 11 at IND 17 NO
6 DAL 12 GB 18 NYG -20%

-40%

-60%

Table 2: Jalen Hurts as a Passer -80%

-100%
Metric Weeks 1-7 Weeks 8-17
DVOA 4.1% -6.0%1
DYAR 251 67
Cmp% 61.2 61.6 Brown has the potential to unlock the Eagles’ pass offense.
Yd/At 7.1 7.5 If he makes a few plays downfield, great, but they don’t need
TD% 4.1 3.2 him to blow the top off defenses. Smith and Quez Watkins can
INT% 1.7 2.6 do that. They need Brown to be the strong, physical receiver
he was in Tennessee and beat up defenses over the middle,
To be sure, Hurts had moments in which he looked like a the part of the field Hurts avoided last season like it was the
terrific quarterback. Take, for instance, the Eagles’ 27-17 win Bermuda Triangle. Philadelphia threw just 10% of passes in
over Washington in Week 15. He rallied Philadelphia from an the middle of the field. Every other offense in the league was
early 10-point deficit, rushed for a pair of touchdowns, and at least at 16% with the NFL average at 22%. Part of that was
sealed the win with an are-you-kidding-me? 19-yard back- execution. It’s harder to target the middle after bailing from
shoulder strike to Greg Ward. the pocket. But it was play design, too. Hurts threw only a
Still, if the Eagles are to win games in January, they will quarter of his passes to receivers running in-breaking routes
need more from Hurts and their pass offense. A run-based at- (slants, curls, digs, posts, drags, and deep crosses), accord-
tack can work against a talent-deficient or undermanned oppo- ing to Sports Info Solutions. As for Brown, nearly 60% of his
nent, but the best teams can score quickly through the air. We targets came on such routes.
saw that time and again during the playoffs. The Rams didn’t With Brown in the fold, Hurts is set up to succeed. If he
run well during the tournament—they had the lowest success doesn’t, the Eagles will move on. They have the assets—three
rate on runs and second-lowest rushing DVOA—and yet won picks in the first two rounds of the 2023 draft and three more
the Super Bowl. The Football Outsiders axiom is as true as in the first two rounds of 2024 —to shore up the quarterback
ever: You run when you win, not win when you run. position in the offseason.
Can Hurts deliver? He certainly has the makeup and drive. The Eagles defense had a turnaround story of its own, one
Add to that three things he didn’t have last season: that almost perfectly synced with the offense’s metamorphosis
(Table 3). Over the first seven weeks, quarterbacks torched
1) Experience. With 19 career starts under his belt, he the defense and running backs gashed it. Philadelphia allowed
should have a better feel for not only his offense but also 22 passing and rushing touchdowns, fifth most, and posted a
defenses. The hope is that the game will slow down for
him, that he will see things more quickly and make deci- Table 3: Shaky Eagles
sions sooner.
2) Offensive continuity. This will be the first time since high vs. Stingy Eagles
school that Hurts will have the same head coach and co-
ordinator in consecutive seasons. Metric Weeks 1-7 Weeks 8-17
3) A strong supporting cast. The offensive line, one of the Defensive VOA 10.8% -12.8%
NFL’s best, is intact. Hurts’ top pass targets—wide re- Defensive DVOA 7.7% -4.5%
ceiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert—are Pass DVOA 15.2% 4.3%
back as well. The real game-changer, though, is an im- Run DVOA -0.8% -18.1%
port: star wide receiver A.J. Brown, acquired in a draft- Pts/G 26.4 18.6
day trade with the Titans. 1D/G 23.9 21.1

1
Yes, Hurts’ passing DVOA declined in Weeks 8-17 even though the Eagles’ team passing DVOA stayed roughly the same. There are a couple of reasons for
this. 1) The baselines for individual DVOA are different from team DVOA. 2) Team passing DVOA also includes scrambles, a significant component of the
Eagles’ offense from Weeks 8-17.
204 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

7.7% DVOA, which ranked 21st. Rookie defensive coordina- The Eagles continued their defensive front makeover in
tor Jonathan Gannon quickly became the most reviled sports the draft, trading up to 13th overall for Jordan Davis. One of
figure in the city not named Ben Simmons. He didn’t win any- the knocks on the mammoth defensive tackle (6-foot-6, 340
one over when, after the Eagles allowed the Chiefs to score 42 pounds) is that he came off the field in passing situations at
points in Week 4, he told reporters, “I don’t have a scheme.” Georgia, but Roseman didn’t draft him to be solely a space-
He later clarified, explaining that he wanted his defense to be eating run defender. He drafted him to replace a franchise
malleable, but the calls for his firing persisted. player—Cox, who turns 32 in December and is likely playing
Gannon’s critics argued his defense was too passive, that it his last season in Philadelphia. Draftniks wondered whether
didn’t play enough man coverage, that it gave receivers too Davis could stay in good enough shape to be a three-down
much cushion, that it didn’t blitz enough. Why wasn’t Gan- player, but such commentary is common for 340-pound men.
non more aggressive? His inexperience could have been a fac- We heard similar things about Haloti Ngata, Dontari Poe, and
tor. Perhaps it took time to get comfortable with his players Vita Vea. As he works on slimming down into the 330s, Davis
and for his players to get comfortable with him. The schedule has pledged to moderate his consumption of cannolis.
didn’t help, either. Right out of the gate, Philadelphia faced While Reddick checked off the Eagles’ biggest immedi-
Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady. The biggest ate need and Davis checked off a longer-term need, the move
reason of all, though, might have been that Gannon didn’t that won over WIP callers was the team’s selection of another
have the personnel to play an attack-style of defense and in- Georgia standout: Nakobe Dean. At long last, Roseman ful-
stead chose a bend-and-hope-it-doesn’t-break approach. (It’s filled their wish: a first-round linebacker. Even better, he wait-
no coincidence the Eagles allowed only 48 plays of 20 or ed until the third round to get him. Why Dean fell remains a
more yards, third fewest in the NFL last season.) They weren’t bit of a mystery, but we do know that he strained a pectoral
bereft of talent—they had Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat, and (a muscle during offseason training, skipped drills at the NFL
declining) Fletcher Cox along the defensive line plus Darius combine, and was limited at his pro day. That, in addition to
Slay in the secondary. But the quality thinned out after that, concerns about his size and length, apparently scared off some
especially after Brandon Graham tore his Achilles in Week 2. teams. Dean insists he is healthy and has backed up his claims
This was partly a consequence of the organization’s prefer- so far; he was a full participant at rookie minicamp and OTAs.
ence in previous offseasons to replenish the defense through Not in question: his speed, range, instincts, and blitz skills. If
free agency and the trade market. From 2018 through 2021, Dean can grow as a coverage defender, he, along with free-
Philadelphia used just one top-100 pick to draft a defensive agent signing Kyzir White, could make the Eagles much more
player (Milton Williams, 73rd overall in 2021). competitive in the middle of the field than they were last year,
Gannon became more aggressive as the season wore on, but when they ranked 29th by allowing a 25.7% pass DVOA.
it’s easier to be courageous when you’re playing against Ted- Ever the tinkerer, Roseman wasn’t done. When the Giants,
dy Bridgewater, Trevor Siemian, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, desperate to clear salary cap space, released cornerback James
Garrett Gilbert, Jake Fromm, Mike Glennon, and Taylor He- Bradberry, the Eagles pounced, signing the 28-year-old to a
inicke. Even if Gannon had decided to channel Buddy Ryan one-year deal worth up to $10 million. The most delicious
and dial up more blitzes, it might have done more harm than detail (or cruelest, if you’re a Giants fan) is that New York’s
good. When the Eagles rushed five defenders, they generated dead-cap charge is higher ($11.7 million) than what the Eagles
pressure at roughly the same rate (22%) as when they rushed will pay Bradberry. The popular take on Bradberry’s average
four defenders (23%). And their DVOA was worse when they performance last season (7.3 yards allowed per pass and 0.9
rushed five or more (28.1% vs. 10.9% when rushing four). A yards per coverage snap) is that it was a blip. In reality, his
blitz isn’t any good if you don’t have players capable of af- 2020 season (6.4 yards allowed per pass and 0.7 yards allowed
fecting the quarterback. per coverage snap) looks like the outlier when compared with
Which brings us to the Eagles’ offseason acquisitions. his last few seasons in Carolina. Even so, he’s a good fit for
While the defense was better over the second half of the sea- Gannon’s zone-heavy not-a-scheme scheme and, with Slay,
son (-4.5% DVOA, ranked 14th, in Weeks 8 to 17), the im- gives the Eagles their best cornerback tandem in a decade, and
provement—like the improvement on offense—was partly the probably since Sheldon Brown-Asante Samuel in 2008-2009.
product of a softer schedule. The wins could not obscure the As with Hurts, there will be no excuses for Gannon this sea-
defense’s most glaring weakness: its inability to generate a son. He has said he doesn’t want to be beholden to one scheme
consistent pass rush against upper-echelon quarterbacks. Phil- or philosophy, that he wants his defense to be amorphous, ca-
adelphia finished the year 28th in adjusted sack rate and 29th pable of switching smoothly between fronts and coverages to
in pressure rate. It’s no wonder that general manager Howie exploit mismatches. His new personnel gives him that flex-
Roseman moved quickly in March to land an edge rusher, ibility. The Eagles should be better in every phase: pass rush,
signing former Temple University walk-on Haason Reddick run stopping, and coverage, making a top-10 finish in DVOA
to a deal that could be worth as much as $45 million over three a reasonable expectation. If that happens, Gannon will get
years. Reddick recorded 12.5 sacks with the Cardinals in 2020 calls in the offseason from teams looking to fill their head-
and 11 sacks with the Panthers in 2021. If he reaches double coach vacancies.
digits again, he would become the first Eagles edge rusher to This time a year ago, the Eagles were coming off a 4-11-1
do so since Connor Barwin in 2014. season. They didn’t know whether they had a head coach or
 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 205

a starting quarterback. Their future was bleak. Now, they’re past 20 games, including three in a row by at least 20 points.
poised to defy the Plexiglass Principle and make another play- The quality of these rivals’ rosters is closer than it has been in
off run. Our projections like their chances. They might not be years, setting the stage for a pivotal late-season grudge match
one of the league’s best teams, but they’re better on offense, that could decide the division. If Jalen Hurts, Nick Sirianni,
better on defense, and again have one of the league’s easiest and Jonathan Gannon want to prove they’re for real, there are
schedules. few things that would be more satisfying than winning in Dal-
But first things first: the Dallas Cowboys, the defending las on Christmas Eve.
NFC East (and DVOA) champions. They have had the Ea-
gles’ number for much of the past decade, winning 13 of the Thomas Bassinger

2021 Eagles by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at ATL W 100% 32 6 434 260 0 30% 14% -14% 2% Total DVOA 8.1% 11 4.7% 25
2 SF L 8% 11 17 328 306 0 -2% 1% -3% -5% Unadjusted VOA 8.9% 11 3.9% 22
3 at DAL L 1% 21 41 367 380 -1 -17% -5% 10% -3% Weighted Trend 7.3% 10 5.0% 26
4 KC L 4% 30 42 461 471 1 -10% 33% 48% 6% Variance 3.1% 1 7.8% 22
5 at CAR W 96% 21 18 273 267 1 8% -24% -31% 1% Average Opponent 0.6% 22 -2.3% 27
6 TB L 3% 22 28 213 399 0 7% 24% 8% -9%
7 at LV L 9% 22 33 358 442 -1 -43% -6% 34% -3% Passing 18.0% 14 13.1% 25
8 at DET W 100% 44 6 350 228 1 53% 18% -38% -3% Rushing 7.0% 3 -6.3% 18
9 LAC L 40% 24 27 331 445 0 9% 31% 19% -2%
First Down 1.7% 14 3.2% 19
10 at DEN W 96% 30 13 386 308 0 24% 17% -7% 1%
Second Down 15.0% 7 1.3% 17
11 NO W 95% 40 29 380 323 2 46% 22% -5% 19%
Third Down 9.4% 12 12.2% 25
12 at NYG L 6% 7 13 332 264 -4 -50% -32% 19% 1%
13 at NYJ W 77% 33 18 418 281 1 -15% 11% 16% -11% First Half 7.8% 9 9.0% 28
14 BYE Second Half 8.5% 12 -0.2% 11
15 WAS W 97% 27 17 519 237 -2 33% 18% -15% 0%
16 NYG W 100% 34 10 324 192 2 39% 5% -35% 0% Red Zone -1.2% 18 5.9% 24
17 at WAS W 69% 20 16 330 312 1 4% 2% 7% 9% Late and Close 8.2% 11 -7.3% 8
18 DAL L 0% 26 51 315 475 -1 -55% 6% 64% 2%
19 at TB L 1% 15 31 339 349 -3 -33% -38% -10% -5%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 13-3 12.0 11.3 457 295 +11 23.7% 5 10.5% 7 -12.2% 5 0.9% 16 29.0 13 24.4 9 27.1 12 26.9 9 26.4 7
2018 9-7 8.5 7.8 367 348 -9 -1.0% 15 -0.4% 16 0.9% 15 0.2% 15 46.0 22 71.0 31 27.9 5 27.6 3 25.5 26
2019 9-7 8.8 9.0 385 354 -3 5.5% 11 2.4% 14 -3.1% 12 0.0% 19 30.3 10 54.1 29 27.8 3 27.2 4 25.6 21
2020 4-11-1 5.8 4.9 334 418 -10 -18.8% 28 -16.9% 28 0.2% 15 -1.6% 22 94.6 32 33.5 12 26.5 21 27.0 5 25.4 25
2021 9-8 10.0 9.6 444 385 0 3.8% 15 8.1% 11 4.7% 25 0.3% 15 46.4 20 29.5 9 25.4 31 27.0 7 24.7 32

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

PHI Offense PHI Offense vs. Opponents PHI Defense PHI Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 64% 5.8 11.1% 35% Base 16% 4.7 -11.4% 71% Base 23% 5.2 0.4% 11 61% 5.5 9.0%
12 25% 6.1 18.8% 67% Nickel 69% 6.0 13.3% 46% Nickel 73% 5.4 5.0% 12 16% 4.8 -4.4%
13 8% 5.5 0.0% 60% Dime+ 14% 6.4 48.1% 12% Dime+ 3% 5.6 15.0% 21 8% 4.8 -9.3%
21 1% 5.4 7.7% 31% Goal Line 0% -0.2 -39.9% 60% Goal Line 1% 1.0 61.8% 611 4% 5.8 14.2%
22 3% 4.7 -6.3%
206 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 41% 11 Form: Single Back 92% 1 Rush 3 1.8% 30 4 DB 23% 17 Play Action 32% 5
Runs, first down 54% 3 Form: Empty Back 6% 30 Rush 4 79.5% 3 5 DB 73% 5 Offensive Motion 32% 30
Runs, second-long 33% 11 Form: Multi Back 2% 31 Rush 5 16.6% 23 6+ DB 3% 25 Avg Box (Off) 6.55 11
Runs, power sit. 72% 3 Pers: 3+ WR 65% 17 Rush 6+ 2.0% 30 Man Coverage 23% 27 Avg Box (Def) 6.59 11
Runs, behind 2H 35% 5 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 34% 9 Edge Rusher Sacks 36.2% 29 CB by Sides 80% 13 Offensive Pace 29.31 5
Pass, ahead 2H 32% 32 Pers: 6+ OL 1% 26 Interior DL Sacks 51.7% 2 S/CB Cover Ratio 27% 18 Defensive Pace 31.14 17
Run-Pass Options 18% 7 Shotgun/Pistol 84% 3 Second Level Sacks 12.1% 22 DB Blitz 4% 31 Go for it on 4th 1.38 6

Even with Zach Ertz getting traded at midseason, the Eagles led the NFL with 18.8% DVOA on plays from 12 personnel. 🏈
The Eagles (tied with the Bills) averaged 5.8 yards on RPOs, the highest figure for any team that used RPOs on at least 10% of
plays. 🏈 Philadelphia ran on 32% of plays from shotgun or pistol, the highest rate in the league. 🏈 The Eagles gained
just 3.8 yards per pass with -65.9% DVOA on running back screens. 🏈 In 2020, the Eagles were the best defense in the
league against handoffs in shotgun or pistol situations. In 2021, that dropped to 30th in the league by DVOA (4.4%) and 23rd
by yards per carry (4.49). 🏈 Philadelphia opponents threw to running backs on a league-high 25% of passes. 🏈 The
Eagles defense ranked 28th in the league in the first half of games, then 11th after halftime. 🏈 Philadelphia recovered 11
out of 18 fumbles on offense (61%) but only four out of 14 on defense (29%).

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Hurts 319 -0.3% 456 2994 6.6 5.5 61.6% 16 9 D.Smith 166 7.7% 104 64 916 14.3 3.3 5 62%
G.Minshew 78 8.1% 65 408 6.3 6.4 68.3% 4 1 Q.Watkins 79 3.7% 62 43 647 15.0 5.9 1 69%
J.Reagor -42 -22.5% 57 33 299 9.1 4.6 2 58%
G.Ward 39 32.3% 11 7 95 13.6 2.3 3 64%
Rushing A.J.Brown 112 1.2% 105 63 869 13.8 3.7 5 60%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc Z.Pascal -74 -26.3% 69 38 384 10.1 3.2 3 55%
M.Sanders 138 14.2% 137 754 5.5 0 1 59% D.Goedert 220 34.7% 76 56 830 14.8 6.9 4 74%
J.Hurts 189 13.7% 127 771 6.1 10 3 - Z.Ertz* -11 -12.1% 31 18 189 10.5 4.8 2 58%
B.Scott 84 12.9% 87 373 4.3 7 1 57% T.Jackson -5 -18.4% 7 3 22 7.3 2.3 1 43%
J.Howard* 93 15.9% 86 406 4.7 3 0 64% K.Gainwell 13 -9.1% 50 33 253 7.7 6.8 1 66%
K.Gainwell 37 4.6% 68 291 4.3 5 1 54% M.Sanders -19 -24.1% 34 26 158 6.1 8.7 0 76%
J.Huntley -4 -18.5% 13 51 3.9 0 0 31% B.Scott -12 -27.9% 16 13 83 6.4 7.4 0 81%
J.Reagor 2 -34.8% 10 32 3.2 0 0 -

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Jason Kelce C 35 17/17 993 1 1.5 6 8 Nate Herbig* RG 24 16/5 481 3 0.0 5 3
Jordan Mailata LT/RT 25 14/14 914 7 5.5 19 8 Andre Dillard LT 27 15/5 340 7 2.5 6 1
Landon Dickerson LG 24 14/13 859 5 2.5 14 8 Isaac Seumalo LG 29 3/3 168 4 0.0 1 1
Lane Johnson RT 32 13/13 821 7 0.0 6 4 Iosua Opeta LG 26 10/2 163 1 1.5 4 0
Jack Driscoll RG 25 9/9 512 2 1.0 5 6

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.36 4.34 14 76% 3 18% 13 1.17 18 0.78 16 9.7% 12 37 6.4% 11 28.6% 10 14.0% 21 31
2020 4.86 4.19 23 73% 9 16% 12 1.29 11 1.18 2 8.3% 9 65 9.4% 31 32.5% 32 13.8% 21 15
2021 4.80 4.78 4 67% 17 12% 1 1.34 4 0.76 9 8.7% 5 31 6.6% 16 29.3% 27 12.5% 7 20
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.27 (4) Left Tackle: 4.69 (9) Mid/Guard: 4.78 (3) Right Tackle: 4.07 (20) Right End: 4.91 (9)

The Eagles figured their offensive line would be healthier than it was in 2020, when four of their five expected starters
landed on injured reserve. But their misfortune continued into 2021. In Week 2, starting right guard Brandon Brooks suffered
a pectoral strain; he never returned and eventually announced his retirement. The next week, starting left guard Isaac Seumalo
 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 207

suffered a Lisfranc injury that ended his season. Things stabilized after that, with 2021 second-round pick Landon Dickerson
stepping in at left guard and 2020 fourth-round pick Jack Driscoll at right guard. Despite again leading the league in adjusted
games lost, the offensive line maintained strong blown block rates and produced the highest adjusted line yards per carry of
any Eagles team in the past 25 years. 🏈 The offensive line’s two constants: coach Jeff Stoutland, who has been with the
team since 2013, and Jason Kelce, who hasn’t missed a game since Week 9 of 2014. Kelce played only one snap in Week 18
to extend his streak of consecutive starts to 122. It is the third-longest streak among active players, behind only Ndamukong
Suh (163) and Jake Matthews (126), and fifth longest in team history. However, his early exit cost him a different streak. For
seven straight seasons, he had played at least 95% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps. In 2021, he played 89%. 🏈 This season
could be Kelce’s last. He turns 35 in November and is playing on a one-year contract. The Eagles used a second-round pick on
center Cam Jurgens, a converted tight end who started three seasons at Nebraska. After the pick, Kelce revealed to Bleacher
Report that the Eagles had been asking him to evaluate center prospects. “Out of all the guys that compare the most to myself,
this guy is him,” he said. 🏈 From the Department of You Never Know: In 2019, the Eagles traded up in the first round of
the draft to select offensive tackle Andre Dillard. The hope was that the 22nd overall pick eventually would succeed likely Hall
of Famer Jason Peters. Turns out, the Eagles already had their future left tackle in Jordan Mailata, whom they drafted with
the 233rd overall pick in 2018. The 6-foot-8, 365-pound Australian had never played football before. He seized control of the
job last summer, signed a multi-year contract extension, and delivered a breakout performance in 2021. “There’s never been
a tackle that’s that big, that size, that can move the way he can,” teammate Lane Johnson said after a late-season win over the
Giants. 🏈 Johnson remains one of the league’s premier offensive linemen. Among full-time right tackles, he has ranked in
the top three in snaps per blown block in each of the past three seasons. He’s not only an elite pass-blocker (no sacks allowed
last season) but also a capable pass-catcher (one touchdown catch last season, in Week 16 against the Giants).

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Fletcher Cox 32 DT 16 749 35 4.2% 76 30 12 2 28 82% 8 1.8 15 3.5 9 23 0
Javon Hargrave 29 DT 16 729 64 7.7% 9 47 19 1 48 71% 46 2.5 47 7.5 10 23 2
Milton Williams 23 DT 17 456 32 3.6% 84 21 6 2 25 68% 56 2.8 65 2.0 5 14 2
Hassan Ridgeway* 28 DT 17 373 20 2.3% -- 11 2 0 17 53% -- 4.2 -- 2.0 3 6 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Derek Barnett 26 DE 16 720 45 5.4% 47 29 8 4 39 67% 70 2.5 44 2.0 9 20 0
Josh Sweat 25 DE 16 655 49 5.9% 36 41 17 1 32 84% 12 2.5 43 7.5 5 25 2
Ryan Kerrigan* 34 DE 16 329 3 0.4% -- 2 1 0 2 50% -- -2.0 -- 0.0 2 12 0
Haason Reddick 28 OLB 16 854 67 8.6% 6 48 24 7 42 69% 63 3.5 80 11.0 5 25 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Alex Singleton* 29 OLB 16 721 133 16.1% 17 53 14 20 67 49% 66 3.9 43 0.0 2 3 34 38% 65 5.4 20 4 1
T.J. Edwards 26 MLB 16 685 128 15.5% 22 66 18 8 72 60% 33 3.7 37 1.0 1 1 34 47% 42 7.7 57 5 1
Genard Avery* 27 OLB 16 358 43 5.2% -- 23 6 4 33 61% -- 3.2 -- 1.0 1 5 5 20% -- 7.0 -- 0 0
Eric Wilson* 28 OLB 14 300 45 6.2% -- 16 8 6 23 39% -- 5.8 -- 0.0 1 2 11 18% -- 6.7 -- 1 1
Davion Taylor 24 OLB 9 250 39 8.4% 73 19 3 6 21 43% 80 4.2 62 0.0 0 1 16 50% 36 8.8 68 0 0
Kyzir White 26 ILB 17 981 146 16.5% 14 70 25 13 86 51% 59 3.6 31 1.0 3 8 39 67% 6 3.7 3 3 2

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.72 3.44 3 67% 22 26% 3 1.00 4 0.87 23 18.6% 3 43 7.0% 17 30.6% 14 15.4% 14
2020 3.69 3.73 3 51% 1 24% 1 0.98 4 0.71 19 14.8% 7 49 8.5% 4 29.3% 6 15.7% 7
2021 4.23 4.34 18 73% 27 15% 22 1.27 22 0.57 15 11.1% 22 29 5.5% 28 22.9% 29 16.0% 10
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.34 (18) Left Tackle: 4.31 (16) Mid/Guard: 4.27 (16) Right Tackle: 4.52 (22) Right End: 4.62 (19)

Brandon Graham, now 34, is expected to make a full recovery after tearing his Achilles early last season. The longest-tenured
athlete in Philadelphia, he is entering his 13th season with the Birds. Only four players have worn Eagles green as long as
Graham: Bucko Kilroy, Harold Carmichael, Brian Dawkins, and Chuck Bednarik, who played 14 seasons. Graham was still
playing at a high level in 2020, with nine sacks and 29 hurries. 🏈 With Graham sidelined, Josh Sweat emerged as Philadel-
208 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

phia’s top edge rusher. He started a career-high 13 games last season but missed the playoff game to address what the Eagles
described as “a life-threatening situation.” He later revealed that an artery “opened up a little bit” and caused internal bleeding.
Sweat, who recovered in time to play in the Pro Bowl, said he does not expect it to be a recurring issue. 🏈 It has been a
busy year for Fletcher Cox. In mid-September, the Eagles restructured his contract, which lowered his 2021 cap hit but made
him virtually untradeable. A few weeks later, with Cox openly griping about Jonathan Gannon’s scheme, they tried to trade
him. In March, they released him and re-signed him to a contract that reduces his 2022 cap hit by $5.3 million, according to
Over the Cap. Cox is in decline, but his presence buys the Eagles time to bring along Jordan Davis slowly. 🏈 Philadelphia’s
best interior defensive lineman is now Javon Hargrave, who posted career highs last season in sacks and quarterback hits. De-
spite frequent double teams, he produced a 19% Pass Rush Win Rate, the third highest among defensive tackles, according to
ESPN. Only Aaron Donald and Chris Jones had higher rates. 🏈 Third-round rookie Milton Williams got off to a slow start
(no sacks, hits, or tackles for loss in his first seven games) but showed flashes of pass-rushing potential down the stretch. 🏈
Drafted 14th overall in 2017, Derek Barnett hasn’t lived up to expectations. His low sack output is a factor, but his propensity
for penalties, particularly costly personal fouls, has been an ongoing source of frustration—frustration that even Eagles coaches
have struggled to contain. When Barnett jumped offsides against the Cowboys in Week 3, ESPN cameras cut to an irritated
Nick Sirianni as he spoke into his headset. Even amateur lip readers had no trouble deciphering Sirianni’s words: “It’s always
him.” It sure has seemed like it. As Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia has pointed out, Barnett has been responsible for
more penalties (25) than sacks (21.5) and more penalty yards (176) than sack yards (141) since he arrived in the NFL. Barnett
hit the open market in March but didn’t find the lucrative contract he was seeking, so he’s back with the Eagles on a short-term
deal that’s paying him like a rotational player. 🏈 Haason Reddick recorded two of his sacks last season on consecutive plays
against Philadelphia, beating Jordan Mailata on both. 🏈 T.J. Edwards helped lead the Eagles’ defensive turnaround after
he replaced Alex Singleton as the team’s starting middle linebacker in Week 8. From that point on, he led Philadelphia in stops
(54) and defeats (16). Despite his second-half emergence, he’ll have to hold off third-round pick Nakobe Dean this season. 🏈
Singleton was responsible for 20 broken tackles, more than any Eagles linebacker in the past decade. Philadelphia did not ten-
der him a contract, and he signed a one-year deal with Denver. 🏈 Kyzir White, one of the more underrated signings of the
offseason, spent the past four seasons with the Chargers. He should be an upgrade over Singleton, particularly in pass coverage.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Steven Nelson* 29 CB 16 983 57 6.9% 66 17 7 3 13 23% 72 10.1 76 52 14.7% 74 11.4 44% 76 8.5 66 7 1
Darius Slay 31 CB 16 955 61 7.4% 59 26 15 11 12 33% 54 7.4 62 64 18.6% 51 12.2 64% 7 6.3 24 9 3
Anthony Harris 31 SS 14 836 75 10.4% 38 31 12 9 38 45% 25 5.6 16 17 5.7% 63 10.7 53% 44 7.5 45 3 1
Avonte Maddox 26 CB 16 730 80 9.7% 21 39 19 7 21 48% 35 4.6 16 56 21.3% 27 6.8 55% 36 5.2 8 9 1
Rodney McLeod* 32 FS 13 684 62 9.2% 53 20 8 5 22 41% 30 6.4 31 20 8.1% 39 11.4 40% 65 9.4 61 4 2
Marcus Epps 26 SS 16 506 61 7.4% 66 18 8 4 24 33% 41 7.0 36 20 11.0% 21 10.2 55% 37 7.2 37 5 1
James Bradberry 29 CB 17 1159 64 6.8% 68 26 10 12 9 22% 74 6.4 44 83 19.3% 45 11.4 51% 54 7.3 44 17 4
Jaquiski Tartt 30 SS 14 727 64 9.2% 54 27 13 11 30 47% 21 5.3 14 17 7.0% 54 11.4 65% 12 6.2 25 1 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 16 2.2% 16 6.4% 21 -2.1% 17 -6.5% 15 15.4% 23 -5.2% 11 -10.2% 9
2020 24 26.3% 32 28.4% 31 7.2% 20 29.9% 32 20.9% 31 14.9% 26 -10.2% 8
2021 25 11.0% 22 0.6% 17 4.8% 21 -10.4% 13 19.2% 28 19.6% 27 -5.6% 17

It has become a pre-draft tradition. We look at the Eagles roster and assume they have to use an early-round pick to bolster the
secondary. And then they don’t. This year, after trading up to No. 13, they passed on safety Kyle Hamilton to draft a defensive
lineman (Jordan Davis). The circumstances were remarkably similar in 2010. The Eagles traded up to No. 13 and passed on
safety Earl Thomas to draft a defensive lineman (Brandon Graham). Fans and media groused about that decision for years but
have quieted down since Graham’s strip-sack of Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII. 🏈 Still, sooner than later, the Eagles are go-
ing to have to use premium picks to rebuild their secondary. Darius Slay is 31 and is under contract for one more season. James
Bradberry is 29 and will be a free agent after this season. Anthony Harris turns 31 in October and also will be a free agent after
this season. The Eagles have drafted only four defensive backs since 2018, fewest in the NFL (Avonte Maddox, 125th overall
in 2018; K’Von Wallace, 127th overall in 2020; Zech McPhearson, 123rd overall in 2021; and JaCoby Stevens, 224th overall
in 2021). And one of them—Stevens—they now deploy as a linebacker. 🏈 Slay bounced back from a disappointing 2020,
boosting his success rate from 39%, which ranked 74th out of 80 qualifying cornerbacks, to 64%, which ranked seventh. He
regained his Big Play Slay form, too, scoring three touchdowns in four weeks (fumble returns vs. the Lions and Broncos and
 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 209

an interception return vs. the Saints). 🏈 The Eagles discontinued the Avonte Maddox-as-an-outside-cornerback experiment,
and he thrived upon returning to the slot, where he allowed his fewest yards per pass since his rookie season. 🏈 Don’t count
out safety Marcus Epps. Cut by the Vikings in the middle of the 2019 season, he has steadily worked his way up the Eagles’
depth chart. He entered last season behind Harris and Rodney McLeod but earned significant playing time (a career-high 44.9%
of defensive snaps) as part of a safety rotation. He has proven to be a reliable tackler. His 10.3% broken-tackle rate ranked
fourth best among safeties who played at least 500 snaps in 2021. 🏈 In mid-June, the Eagles added Jaquiski Tartt, a former
second-round pick who played both free safety and strong safety during his seven seasons in San Francisco. Maybe he’s compe-
tition for Harris and Epps. Maybe the Eagles see him as the third safety in their big nickel package. Or maybe he doesn’t make
the team at all. You might remember him for his dropped interception in the NFC Championship Game, but the 49ers might not
have been there if not for his touchdown-saving tackle of a wide-open Aaron Jones a week earlier.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 0.0% 19 3.8 11 -3.6 25 -2.3 23 5.0 9 -3.1 24 -13.5 32
2020 -1.6% 22 -5.7 24 2.9 10 -4.3 26 -0.7 19 -0.4 18 -18.0 32
2021 0.3% 15 8.1 4 -0.6 20 -6.2 30 0.1 18 0.2 13 4.7 11

Jake Elliott followed up the worst season of his career with the best. After converting a career-low 73.7% of his field goals in
2020, he converted a career-high and Eagles record 90.9% in 2021 and made all 44 of his extra points. Elliott’s 2021 was truly
the opposite of his 2020, right down to his field goal splits. In 2020, he was perfect (11-for-11) from 30 to 49 yards but 3-for-8
from 20 to 29 yards and from 50 or more. In 2021, he was perfect (10-for-10) from 20 to 29 yards and from 50 or more but
20-for-23 from 30 to 49 yards. 🏈 Punter Arryn Siposs, who spent the 2020 season on the Lions practice squad, got off to a
decent start with his new team, averaging 46.1 gross yards per punt in the Eagles’ first eight games. He fell into a slump after-
ward, averaging 41.5 yards, which ranked 32nd out of 33 punters who punted at least 10 times in the same span. He was par-
ticularly bad over the Eagles’ final five games (a 37.0-yard average). Given his late-season struggles, he’s second on the depth
chart behind a punter that’s not yet on the roster. 🏈 The Eagles still aren’t good at returning kicks. Kickoffs, in particular,
are a problem. Out of 61 players with at least eight kick returns, Quez Watkins finished 47th in value, Kenneth Gainwell was
51st, and Jalen Reagor was 52nd. Miles Sanders, in 2019, was the last Eagles returner to produce a positive value on kickoffs.
🏈 Reagor muffed two punts in the playoff loss to the Buccaneers, one of which Tampa Bay recovered. Though he was an
improvement over Greg Ward during the regular season, he’s hardly irreplaceable. Among the challengers for the job: Britain
Covey, an undrafted free agent who scored three return touchdowns (two punts, one kickoff) during his final season at Utah,
and Devon Allen, a two-time Olympic hurdler who last played football in 2016 at Oregon.
 Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 record: 9-7-1 Total DVOA: -10.2% (23) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.2 wins On the Clock (0-5): 15%
Pythagorean Wins: 7.0 (22) Offense: -11.0% (25) Postseason Odds: 38.9% Mediocrity (6-8): 39%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.0 (21) Defense: -0.6% (14) Super Bowl Odds: 4.5% Playoff Contender (9-11): 35%
Average Opponent: 2.2% (4) Special Teams: 0.2% (17) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 2.0% (4) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 11%

2021: A resurgent defense drags the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger to a sad playoff appearance.

2022: The Steeler Way means little has changed other than the names.

T hree people have been guiding the Pittsburgh Steelers

since the millennium began. Kevin Colbert has been the
director of football operations/de facto general manager since
Roethlisberger’s final couple of seasons were about his ego
and Pittsburgh’s unwillingness to push the idea of a replace-
ment, à la how Ben McAdoo tried to force out Eli Manning
2000. Ben Roethlisberger has been the starting quarterback in New York. It helped that handpicked third-rounder Mason
since 2004. Mike Tomlin has been the head coach since 2007. Rudolph struggled every time he was given a real chance; Ru-
Two of those guys stepped away this offseason, and yet the dolph has -289 DYAR in 17 career games. But especially by
team feels as much like the Pittsburgh Steelers as it ever has. 2020, the Steelers were essentially running a dink-and-dunk
After an expansive search that included outside entrants offense. A career-high 61% of Roethlisberger’s passes last
such as Titans vice president of player personnel Ryan year traveled 5 air yards or less, up from 2020’s career high
Cowden, Bucs VP of player personnel John Spytek, Eagles of 57%. And it wasn’t like what we watched was prettier than
VP of player personnel Andy Weidl, and former Bills general the numbers. Roethlisberger’s final season had him navigating
manager Doug Whaley—and those are just the ones who got the pocket like he was injured, barely able to run by the end
second interviews—the Steelers hired in-house with VP of of the season, and some of the throws he attempted would not
Football and Business Administration Omar Khan. A search have looked out of place on a Carson Wentz mixtape. A Sep-
firm had recommended Khan for the Texans GM job in 2021 tember interception gifted to Logan Wilson on the run looked
before that got Easterby’d up, and he also interviewed with more like a pass attempt to Wilson than the intended receiver.
the Bears in 2022. The Steelers also hired Weidl as assistant Roethlisberger had been a great quarterback for a long time,
general manager. “We know Omar, Omar knows us … so I and obviously he has become a Pittsburgh institution. Frankly,
think it will be a very smooth transition,” Art Rooney said as it was incredible that he came back from his 2019 surgery
he introduced Khan in May. The Steelers have always valued to reattach three tendons in his elbow—that’s almost unprec-
stability, and when asked if Colbert would have a role going edented in NFL history, as we discussed in Football Outsiders
forward, Khan said “I hope so … Kevin and I have a great Almanac 2020. But who he was in 2020 and 2021 wasn’t com-
relationship.” patible with that iconography, and it showed as the Steelers
Roethlisberger’s career has been unwinding at a glacial pace were quickly spanked in the playoffs behind offenses that fell
for a while now. The surprise playoff berth the Steelers were into 35-7 and 28-0 deficits with turnovers and stalled drives.
able to nab in the final weeks of the season with some unlikely We don’t shovel dirt on Roethlisberger to bury him; we do it
results continued a public hagiography that often buried his because understanding the context of how this team was held
sexual assault allegations an extra week. Roethlisberger’s last back by its quarterback is a pretty strong argument for why
season with a top-10 DVOA was in 2018, and while he threw the Steelers still might be formidable in 2022. In Colbert’s
33 touchdowns in 2020, his average depth of target complete- last draft running the show, the Steelers stayed put at 20th
ly cratered and stayed that way in 2021 (Table 1). overall and took the draft’s only first-round quarterback, Pitt’s
Kenny Pickett. Before that, they had added former Bears first-
Table 1. Ben Roethlisberger from round bust Mitchell Trubisky to play caretaker quarterback.
Trubisky clearly isn’t a real successor to Roethlisberger and
Star to Albatross, 2016-2021 you can write your own jokes about him, but the move also
shows that the Steelers weren’t willing to let Rudolph be the
Year aDOT NetY/P unquestioned backup for this team yet again.
2016 9.0 7.0 The glass-half-full approach to what Pickett adds to the
2017 9.4 7.1 Steelers is that he can actually hit the downfield throws that
2018 7.9 7.1 had disappeared from their game entirely. He was the most
2020 7.4 5.9 proficient deep thrower in the class—FO’s Derrik Klassen
2021 6.9 5.4 wrote in April that Pickett’s best throws are as pretty as any-
Roethlisberger played only 2 games in 2019. one’s in the class—and he threw well on the move. He has
210
 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 211

2021 PIT DVOA by Week

2022 Steelers Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at CIN 7 at MIA 13 at ATL
2 NE 8 at PHI 14 BAL 40%
3 at CLE (Thu.) 9 BYE 15 at CAR 20%
4 NYJ 10 NO 16 LV (Sat.)
0%
5 at BUF 11 CIN 17 at BAL
6 TB 12 at IND (Mon.) 18 CLE -20%

-40%

-60%

prototype quarterback size. He was prolific at Pitt in his senior -80%

year (his receivers included Jordan Addison, the 2021 Bilet- -100%

nikoff Award winner) and threw for 42 touchdowns with just

seven interceptions. He had only thrown 39 touchdowns total
in his four previous seasons.
The downside, and the reason he was still available at 20? coached extremely conservatively in 2021. He also has never
Well, Pickett often operated in a streetball way in college, had a losing record in a season despite 15 years of experience
breaking the pocket and wandering around until he found and some recent teams that could have easily backslid. He has
someone open. He’s not athletic enough to get away with that managed delicate egos the entire way. Since Roethlisberger
in the NFL. His hand size was oft-discussed, measuring in at declined and the 2017-2018 Antonio Brown-Le’Veon Bell
8½ inches at the combine and 8⅝ inches at Pitt’s pro day, in core went their own ways, Tomlin’s teams have been overper-
a league where anything under 9 inches is considered a bit forming their underlying metrics massively. Based on DVOA
of a flag. Those hands helped contribute to 38 career fum- splits, the Steelers have 24.5 estimated wins over the past
bles, including six in 2021. That’s an especially galling set of three years, but they actually won 29 games. That disparity is
weaknesses to come into the NFL with behind Pittsburgh’s one of the highest in the NFL (Table 2).
offensive line, which is now a major problem due to the mass
exodus of David DeCastro, Matt Feiler, Alejandro Villanueva, Table 2: Most Wins over
and Maurkice Pouncey following the 2020 season. Pittsburgh
brought on James Daniels, a credible interior lineman with Estimated Wins, 2019-2021
some upside, in free agency this offseason. He can’t start at
all five spots. Team Wins Est. Wins Dif.
Pickett doesn’t appear to have the upside to become a true GB 39 32.1 +6.9
franchise quarterback. In fact, it’s hard to find anybody arguing TEN 32 25.5 +6.5
that he could be a top-10 quarterback. There are more compari- MIA 24 17.8 +6.2
sons to Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr than to Peyton Manning PIT 29 24.5 +5.5
or Tom Brady. Our quarterback projection system, QBASE, BAL 33 29.7 +3.3
was similarly unimpressed (page 459). Pickett’s mean projec- BUF 34 30.7 +3.3
tion makes him a replacement-level quarterback, with a 75% KC 38 35.3 +2.7
chance of becoming either a bust or an “adequate” starter.
But even with all that laid out: adequate is better than what Analytically, it’s hard to bring up raw numbers that would
the Steelers got last year. Roethlisberger finished with a -9.1% support Tomlin’s candidacy as one of the best coaches in the
passing DVOA, a number that put him behind Taylor He- NFL. Play-action passes are one of the greatest cheat codes
inicke, a clearly hurt Baker Mayfield, and even Davis Mills. in analytics orthodoxy, and one Tomlin’s Steelers have abso-
For that matter, it’s a number that Trubisky was within hailing lutely refused to use no matter who is under center. They had
distance of in two of his four seasons as a starter, and better finished last or second-to-last in play-action usage in every
than in the two others. Pittsburgh also invested heavily in the season since 2014 before offensive coordinator Matt Canada
wideout room with weapons in the draft. Between Diontae pushed enough last year to get them up to 29th place. There’s
Johnson, Chase Claypool, second-round pick George Pickens not a sexy scheme that Tomlin is running that is an easy ref-
(Georgia), fourth-round pick Calvin Austin (Memphis), and erence point to talk about his obvious greatness. Outside of
Pat Freiermuth inside, there will be matchups that a quarter- a league-wide trend of teams playing less man coverage,
back can take advantage of available on most snaps. Tomlin’s defenses didn’t change much at all over the last four
The true heartbeat of the Steelers, and someone who takes years. There was less blitzing of defensive backs last year with
an often-outsized amount of flack in analytics circles, is Tom- Mike Hilton off to Cincinnati, but there was also less blitz-
lin. Tomlin was dead last in EdjSports’ critical call index in ing in general by the defense in 2021. They also had a 2018
2021, a measurement of the total in-game win probability lost season in which they used six or more defensive backs much
through coaching decisions on fourth downs. Simply put: he more than the league norm, but that was mostly because their
212 PITTSBURGH STEELERS

middle linebacker room was ghastly at that point—something vious two years and building that into the model creates some
that surely informed their decision to trade up for Michigan’s regression from last year’s fall. But there is some turnover
Devin Bush in the first round of the 2019 draft. here. Stephon Tuitt’s projected return won’t come to fruition
What we think you can give Tomlin is this: outside of being after he retired in early June, still emotionally affected by the
a good leader of men, he’s flexible and adaptable to what he tragic death of his brother in a hit-and-run before last season.
has. We can bleat on about fourth-and-short punts until our Long-time outside corner Joe Haden wasn’t retained and the
gums are bleeding—and many weeks, we do!—but traditional team replaced him with ex-Bills corner Levi Wallace. After a
football orthodoxy upholds that if you have a great defense, season with Joe Schobert in the middle, the Steelers released
there’s more sense in playing a field-position game and hop- him and brought in his former Jaguars teammate Myles Jack
ing for turnovers. Our numbers tend to say that weaker teams to help solidify the middle of the defense. Neither Bush nor
should gamble more rather than less in these situations, but Schobert was particularly impressive last season. And instead
there aren’t many ways for an offense this bad to climb out of upgrading at safety, the Steelers brought back Terrell Ed-
of holes. The Steelers need the game script on their side, or at munds. It could be argued that outside of T.J. Watt, Minkah
least a view to a tying or go-ahead drive. On the other hand, Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Heyward, there aren’t any players
Tomlin has finished in the bottom 11 in Aggressiveness In- you can really count on to produce.
dex in every season since 2017. He was being conservative— That defensive projection elevates the Steelers into about
more conservative, even—when the offense was good. So the same spot they were last season: a true contender for an
we could make the excuse that, for example, coaching for a AFC wild-card spot, but a team that is too flawed to do much
fourth-down go when any blitzer through a gap can end your with an opportunity should they get there. The consistency is
quarterback is a little risky. And Tomlin coached that way. But to be marveled at, but we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss
he also coached that way when Roethlisberger was still at the the possibility that the Steelers can string more together on
apex of his talents. offense than they did last year, in a spot where they were ex-
For most of the season, it looked like the Steelers didn’t tremely limited by the talents of their quarterback. After all,
have the defense to even have that plan hold up. They finished the last time we saw the Steelers break in a first-round quar-
Week 12 with a 6.6% DVOA. They particularly struggled terback behind a good defense, they went 15-1 with rookie
with the aerial assault that Joe Burrow’s Bengals foisted on Roethlisberger. That record overstates the success that both
them, with a 44.5% DVOA in two games against Cincinnati the team and Roethlisberger had that season, but moving on
despite two forced turnovers. The furious finish to their season from a limited Tommy Maddox completely changed the way
was aided by a -12.3% DVOA from Weeks 13 to 18, where the offense worked. It shouldn’t be seen as an impossibility
they gobbled up 17 turnovers. Instead of being content with for that to happen in Pittsburgh this year solely because most
that and running it back, Tomlin enlisted the help of former NFL general managers and outside evaluators didn’t like the
Dolphins head coach Brian Flores even as Flores launched a quarterback class. Pickett was easily regarded as the safest bet
lawsuit against the NFL for unfair hiring practices. “It doesn’t the class had, and he’ll have a chance to change the conversa-
require a lot of time to come to the realization that you can tion around this team in a hurry. Both QBASE and a tough
use a Brian Flores on your staff,” Tomlin said after the hire schedule make that feel more unlikely, but 15 years of solid
was official. If you take another peek at Table 2, you can see play under Tomlin point to the fact that Pittsburgh won’t bot-
Flores’ old team doing quite well under his leadership. tom out that easily.
We’re projecting a rebound for Pittsburgh’s defense this
season, as they had been a top-five defense in each of the pre- Rivers McCown
 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 213

2021 Steelers by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at BUF W 84% 23 16 252 371 1 32% 12% -30% -11% Total DVOA -11.0% 25 -0.6% 14
2 LV L 22% 17 26 331 425 -1 -3% 14% 21% 4% Unadjusted VOA -10.1% 23 1.8% 16
3 CIN L 0% 10 24 342 268 -1 -83% -37% 37% -9% Weighted Trend -15.5% 26 -2.1% 14
4 at GB L 11% 17 27 282 367 -1 0% -9% -2% 7% Variance 5.4% 5 6.0% 16
5 DEN W 88% 27 19 391 374 0 17% 21% 6% 2% Average Opponent 1.7% 29 3.5% 1
6 SEA W 89% 23 20 345 309 0 28% 2% -25% 1%
7 BYE Passing -0.3% 24 -0.4% 8
8 at CLE W 75% 15 10 370 306 1 18% 13% -6% -2% Rushing -14.2% 24 -0.8% 27
9 CHI W 17% 29 27 280 414 1 -20% 4% 28% 4%
First Down -27.1% 31 11.2% 28
10 DET T 57% 16 16 387 306 -3 -39% -35% -3% -7%
Second Down -1.8% 19 -14.9% 4
11 at LAC L 3% 37 41 300 533 1 -32% 2% 44% 10%
Third Down 3.2% 16 -1.2% 18
12 at CIN L 0% 10 41 301 370 -2 -72% -50% 25% 2%
13 BAL W 92% 20 19 321 326 1 25% 20% -6% -1% First Half -21.9% 30 -2.5% 14
14 at MIN L 39% 28 36 375 458 1 -25% -10% 5% -10% Second Half -2.0% 20 1.4% 13
15 TEN W 85% 19 13 168 318 4 4% -33% -33% 4%
16 at KC L 1% 10 36 303 381 -3 -53% -31% 17% -5% Red Zone 6.5% 13 -14.7% 5
17 CLE W 37% 26 14 299 232 1 12% -27% -28% 11% Late and Close 4.0% 16 -3.8% 10
18 at BAL W 90% 16 13 314 381 2 -3% -32% -26% 3%
19 at KC L 1% 21 42 257 478 1 -30% -15% 9% -5%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 13-3 10.6 11.2 406 308 +2 25.9% 4 17.5% 3 -5.4% 9 3.1% 9 13.8 6 14.8 6 27.4 7 25.7 23 25.9 14
2018 9-6-1 9.7 9.2 428 360 -11 11.3% 9 14.3% 6 -0.5% 14 -3.5% 27 24.4 7 14.1 3 27.9 6 26.2 18 26.1 10
2019 8-8 7.6 7.3 289 303 +8 -5.8% 19 -25.1% 31 -17.8% 3 1.5% 8 30.6 11 30.0 15 27.0 11 26.1 19 25.9 16
2020 12-4 10.7 10.1 416 312 +9 16.8% 8 -4.7% 22 -20.2% 1 1.3% 14 29.1 9 26.1 7 27.4 7 26.7 9 25.8 19
2021 9-7-1 7.0 7.1 343 398 +2 -10.2% 23 -11.0% 25 -0.6% 14 0.2% 17 42.3 16 47.5 23 25.8 27 26.4 14 25.6 25

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

PIT Offense PIT Offense vs. Opponents PIT Defense PIT Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 74% 5.3 -9.4% 28% Base 16% 4.5 7.4% 60% Base 34% 5.5 -2.8% 11 58% 5.7 3.8%
12 18% 4.2 6.0% 50% Nickel 69% 4.9 -11.9% 36% Nickel 47% 5.4 -6.4% 12 15% 6.1 -1.1%
21 2% 3.1 -20.2% 89% Dime+ 14% 6.3 5.8% 3% Dime+ 17% 6.5 24.3% 13 7% 5.5 -25.9%
22 2% 6.7 48.0% 70% Goal Line 1% 5.3 68.2% 63% Big 2% 4.2 10.3% 21 5% 5.7 -3.0%
20 1% 6.5 -17.1% 64% 612 4% 4.9 3.6%
13 1% 3.1 -46.3% 38% 22 3% 3.6 -44.2%
10 3% 5.9 13.6%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 38% 17 Form: Single Back 89% 4 Rush 3 4.9% 15 4 DB 34% 3 Play Action 22% 29
Runs, first down 48% 19 Form: Empty Back 9% 14 Rush 4 70.8% 16 5 DB 47% 30 Offensive Motion 33% 28
Runs, second-long 31% 13 Form: Multi Back 2% 32 Rush 5 19.4% 15 6+ DB 17% 13 Avg Box (Off) 6.42 23
Runs, power sit. 50% 27 Pers: 3+ WR 76% 4 Rush 6+ 4.9% 12 Man Coverage 27% 20 Avg Box (Def) 6.42 22
Runs, behind 2H 29% 14 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 22% 27 Edge Rusher Sacks 57.3% 14 CB by Sides 88% 5 Offensive Pace 30.31 10
Pass, ahead 2H 52% 8 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 30 Interior DL Sacks 37.3% 9 S/CB Cover Ratio 33% 7 Defensive Pace 30.53 8
Run-Pass Options 22% 1 Shotgun/Pistol 77% 6 Second Level Sacks 5.5% 30 DB Blitz 9% 20 Go for it on 4th 0.91 23
214 PITTSBURGH STEELERS

We wrote in last year’s book about Pittsburgh’s strong record of drawing pass interference penalties. Last year, instead, they
were good at drawing all penalties. Steelers opponents were flagged a league-leading 154 times, including declined and offset-
ting penalties. And yes, that includes 17 DPI penalties, second behind Indianapolis. 🏈 Pittsburgh led all offenses with 162
broken tackles last season. Najee Harris led the league with 87 broken tackles while Diontae Johnson finished second among
wide receivers with 28. 🏈 Despite Ben Roethlisberger getting the ball out of his hands very fast all season, the Steelers
still tied for the league lead with 10 coverage sacks. 🏈 The Steelers had the league’s 26th-ranked pace in the first half of
games (one play every 29.2 seconds), then the fastest pace in the second half of games (one play every 24.6 seconds). 🏈
Pittsburgh’s defense benefited from a league-high 6.6% drop rate by opposing receivers. Only Indianapolis (which faced more
passes) saw opponents drop more balls. 🏈 Steelers opponents threw in the middle of the field 27% of the time; only Cincin-
nati faced passes in the middle of the field more often. The Steelers were fourth in DVOA on passes over the middle.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
B.Roethlisberger* 85 -9.1% 641 3501 5.5 5.0 64.7% 22 10 D.Johnson 68 -7.6% 169 107 1161 10.9 4.9 8 63%
M.Rudolph -65 -28.1% 57 277 4.9 3.5 61.4% 1 1 C.Claypool 64 -5.2% 106 60 860 14.3 5.0 2 57%
M.Trubisky -39 -89.2% 8 43 5.4 2.8 75.0% 0 1 R.McCloud* -183 -48.1% 65 38 277 7.3 2.9 0 58%
J.Washington* -2 -13.1% 44 24 285 11.9 3.3 2 55%
J.Smith-Schuster* -47 -34.7% 28 15 129 8.6 4.5 0 54%
Rushing A.Miller -19 -35.1% 11 5 23 4.6 2.0 1 45%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc C.White 6 -0.7% 6 5 33 6.6 2.8 0 83%
N.Harris 48 -4.8% 307 1207 3.9 7 0 49% P.Freiermuth 51 2.6% 79 60 497 8.3 4.1 7 76%
B.Snell -37 -37.8% 36 98 2.7 0 0 33% Z.Gentry -4 -9.7% 25 19 167 8.8 6.7 0 76%
C.Claypool 48 6.3% 14 96 6.9 0 0 - E.Ebron* -15 -19.7% 18 12 84 7.0 1.8 1 67%
K.Ballage* -10 -30.7% 12 36 3.0 0 0 33% N.Harris -1 -14.0% 94 74 467 6.3 6.7 3 79%
D.Johnson 32 81.9% 5 53 10.6 0 0 - K.Ballage* -28 -97.9% 7 2 8 4.0 5.0 0 29%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Trai Turner* RG 29 17/17 1084 6 4.5 7 8 John Leglue LG 26 6/5 407 4 0.0 5 5
Dan Moore LT 24 16/16 1080 5 6.0 30 6 Joe Haeg LT/RT 29 12/2 307 1 2.0 5 2
Chukwuma Okorafor RT 25 16/16 1079 11 2.0 13 6 J.C. Hassenauer C 27 13/3 276 0 0.0 2 1
Kendrick Green C 24 15/15 977 8 1.0 7 16 James Daniels RG 25 17/17 1122 8 3.5 18 11
Kevin Dotson LG 26 9/9 565 5 0.0 1 3 Mason Cole C/RG 26 14/7 472 0 2.0 11 4

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.74 3.84 30 54% 27 23% 31 1.05 26 0.52 26 7.0% 2 32 6.6% 12 30.0% 17 9.9% 3 31
2020 3.82 3.78 32 56% 30 19% 28 1.02 31 0.72 17 7.8% 6 14 2.7% 1 15.2% 2 7.3% 2 24
2021 3.75 3.84 28 58% 27 17% 17 1.02 30 0.42 26 12.8% 25 38 5.6% 11 17.0% 2 10.2% 2 28
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.84 (24) Left Tackle: 3.35 (31) Mid/Guard: 3.88 (28) Right Tackle: 3.91 (24) Right End: 4.07 (18)

Pittsburgh isn’t quite as bad as Carolina, but the Panthers made more moves to try to improve their line. The Steelers only came
away from free agency with former Bears interior lineman James Daniels. Daniels isn’t a superstar by any means—the three-year,
$26.5-million deal he got was probably a slight overpay—but he has been better with his run blocking over the past two years.
Daniels played left guard in 2020 and center in 2019. He’s slated to start at right guard currently, but there could be a lot of shuffling
on this line as the season goes on. 🏈 Only six tackles had more blown blocks than rookie Dan Moore at left tackle in 2021.
Guess who is back at left tackle? Well, it’s Dan Moore. Pittsburgh also brought in veteran backups Joe Haeg and Trent Scott, but
it’s clear that they want Moore to win the job. 🏈 Kendrick Green’s snaps at center were so rough that the team has moved him
back to competing with 2020 fourth-rounder Kevin Dotson at left guard. Green, a college guard, said at OTAs that his comfort
level at center during the 2021 season was about a two (out of 10). Working at guard, he’s back up to six or seven. Dotson played
fairly well last year per SIS’ blown block numbers, but he has problems reaching defenders on zone plays and likely won’t ever
have short-area burst off the ball. He should still be the favorite in this battle. 🏈 Pittsburgh re-signed Chukwuma Okorafor at
right tackle to a three-year, $29.3-million deal that essentially can be a one-year deal if the Steelers don’t believe in him. Only $9.3
million was guaranteed at signing. We’ll be surprised if that gets picked up, because Okorafor needs to take a step forward to be
 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 215

more than mediocre outside. 🏈 The Steelers signed Mason Cole to a three-year, $15.8-million contract this offseason to step
in for Green at center, but like the Okorafor deal, not much is guaranteed after this season. Cole stepped in admirably for Garrett
Bradbury in Minnesota last year and rode that performance to some snaps at right guard. He has struggled in pass protection on an
island—especially against star-level competition—but has enough speed to combo block.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Cameron Heyward 33 DT 17 955 98 10.7% 2 68 36 3 72 63% 77 2.5 45 10.0 6 35 8
Chris Wormley 29 DE 15 729 54 6.7% 21 33 12 3 39 56% 87 3.8 96 7.0 3 14 3
Isaiahh Loudermilk 25 DE 15 288 26 3.2% -- 18 2 1 22 64% -- 3.3 -- 1.0 0 5 3
Montravius Adams 27 DT 10 286 17 3.1% 93 13 3 0 12 75% 26 1.8 9 0.0 3 8 2
Isaiah Buggs* 26 DE 10 227 18 3.3% -- 14 3 2 16 75% -- 1.8 -- 0.0 0 2 1
Larry Ogunjobi 28 DT 16 724 49 6.0% 37 38 17 10 36 75% 26 2.0 24 7.0 11 23 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Alex Highsmith 25 OLB 16 851 74 8.5% 7 52 22 7 58 74% 37 2.3 33 6.0 8 24 0
T.J. Watt 28 OLB 15 758 71 8.7% 5 61 36 7 35 80% 15 1.9 17 22.5 15 26 7
Taco Charlton* 28 DE 11 216 19 3.2% -- 10 3 1 16 50% -- 4.1 -- 0.5 2 3 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Joe Schobert* 29 ILB 16 921 118 13.6% 35 62 20 15 75 56% 48 4.2 61 0.0 1 3 32 44% 51 8.0 60 6 1
Devin Bush 24 ILB 14 762 74 9.8% 63 33 6 5 34 56% 49 4.4 64 2.0 2 2 33 55% 25 6.4 38 4 0
Robert Spillane 27 ILB 14 346 45 5.9% 81 17 5 6 24 58% 41 3.4 20 0.0 0 0 15 27% -- 7.8 -- 0 0
Myles Jack 27 ILB 15 919 108 14.0% 31 38 9 10 61 44% 78 4.7 77 0.0 2 5 34 44% 49 5.7 27 0 0
Genard Avery 27 OLB 16 358 43 5.2% -- 23 6 4 33 61% -- 3.2 -- 1.0 1 5 5 20% -- 7.0 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.89 4.12 11 76% 31 20% 15 1.15 14 0.44 1 11.1% 25 54 9.7% 1 34.4% 5 19.8% 2
2020 4.00 3.67 2 67% 16 22% 4 1.12 10 0.78 22 14.1% 10 56 9.2% 1 30.4% 1 21.8% 1
2021 4.97 4.34 19 70% 19 16% 19 1.41 30 1.15 32 14.0% 16 55 8.3% 2 25.2% 16 15.8% 12
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.43 (8) Left Tackle: 5.35 (31) Mid/Guard: 4.37 (17) Right Tackle: 4.43 (20) Right End: 3.75 (12)

Turning 28 in the middle of the season, T.J. Watt has the Master Sack Artists, 2000-2021
highs that his brother had, but the durability that his brother
didn’t quite have. (No, not Derek. The other one.) T.J. is only Player Years Team Y1 Y2 Y3
the fourth player since 1990 to put up 15 sacks in consecu- Simeon Rice 02-03 TB 15.5 15.0 12.0
tive years. Brother J.J. was one of the others, with 38 sacks Jason Taylor 02-03 MIA 18.5 13.0 9.5
in 2014-2015, along with Simeon Rice (30.5 sacks in 2002- Jared Allen 07-08 KC/MIN 15.5 14.5 14.5
2003) and DeMarcus Ware (35 sacks in 2010-2011). 🏈 So DeMarcus Ware 07-08 DAL 14.0 20.0 11.0
what will regression towards the mean do to T.J. Watt’s sack Jared Allen 08-09 MIN 14.5 14.5 11.0
total in 2022? Maybe less than you think. Thirty players from Jason Babin 10-11 TEN/PHI 12.5 18.0 7.0
1990 through 2021 had at least 12 sacks in two straight years DeMarcus Ware 10-11 DAL 15.5 19.5 11.5
and then played at least 14 games in the third season. Those Mario Williams 13-14 BUF 13.0 14.5 5.0
players dropped from an average of 14.4 and 14.6 sacks in the Chandler Jones 17-18 ARI 17.0 13.0 19.0
first two years to 10.4 sacks in the third year. Here’s a look at Aaron Donald 18-19 LAR 20.5 12.5 13.5
players who have done this since 2000, including Watt and T.J. Watt 18-19 PIT 13.0 14.5 15.0
Aaron Donald for four straight seasons apiece: Aaron Donald 19-20 LAR 12.5 13.5 12.5
T.J. Watt 19-20 PIT 14.5 15.0 22.5
Aaron Donald 20-21 LAR 13.5 12.5 --
T.J. Watt 20-21 PIT 15.0 22.5 --
Includes players with at least 12 sacks in Years 1-2 and at least 14 games played in
Year 3.
216 PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Nobody has put up 15 sacks in three straight seasons since Reggie White in 1986-1988, but injury is the only thing standing
between Watt and another season of double-digit sacks. 🏈 Cameron Heyward’s season didn’t quite measure up to his 12-
sack 2017, but it was probably the second-best year he had purely as a pass-rusher. He had to play at nose tackle in one of the
two Bengals losses due to depth issues and injuries along the line. Heyward said on the Mina Kimes Podcast with Lenny that it
“pisses him off” that he’s overlooked compared to Aaron Donald. We don’t want to see him pissed off. He’s a complete player
in our book. It’s impossible to compare anyone to Aaron Donald. Please don’t hurt us, Cam. 🏈 Alex Highsmith started
off with a pretty good game against the Bills, but he was up-and-down as a pass-rusher most of the season. The Steelers can
afford to have that happen when Watt and Heyward are both providing pressure, but surely they’d prefer another step forward
in Year 3. Genard Avery (ex-Eagles) is the only real addition to the pass-rush corps, and he hasn’t been especially notable as a
pass-rusher since his rookie year in 2018. 🏈 The interior returns Tyson Alualu after he was lost to an ankle injury in Week
2. Alualu was a star-level interior defender in 2020, and Pittsburgh sorely missed him in 2021. Chris Wormley is on the final
year of his contract and has been a nice run defender when healthy, capable of playing end or inside depending on the front.
Pittsburgh’s lone drafted rookie addition to the defense is third-rounder DeMarvin Leal, a five-star Texas A&M recruit who
finally got it going as a pass-rusher in 2021 with 8.5 sacks. Leal has a high ceiling but will need to find more than a bull rush
to get sacks against stronger NFL competition. He fits Pittsburgh’s scheme as a 5-technique rather than as an edge rusher. 🏈
Pittsburgh also signed Larry Ogunjobi in late June to help solidify things. Ogunjobi was a failed physical away from a reported
$40-million payday for the Bears, so he’s a nice signing to help replace Stephon Tuitt. 🏈 Coming off a torn ACL, Devin
Bush had a disastrous year in run defense, not missing many tackles but often barely getting in the required area to miss tack-
lers. Only three other qualifying linebackers had fewer run tackles per snap. Merril Hoge called out Bush this offseason and
said “You gotta cut bait there. Doesn’t play smart or fast. Doesn’t play with good technique. Doesn’t play with good instincts.
He gets targeted by teams in the passing game. Not a good football player.” The Steelers declined Bush’s fifth-year option this
offseason. Bush said at OTAs he doesn’t think he’s got anything to prove. Not ideal. 🏈 Myles Jack got a two-year, $16-mil-
lion deal where the Steelers can gain $8 million in cap space by cutting him in 2023. Jack is coming off the worst pass-coverage
year of his career with one-and-out Jags defensive coordinator Joe Cullen. If his knee is right, he has range to offer. If his knee
isn’t right, it’s a one-year deal. He’ll likely get every chance to prove the knee is right with only a collection of special teamers
and career backups behind him and Bush. Robert Spillane has 11 starts over the last two years as a UDFA and not much to show
for it beyond pick-sixing Lamar Jackson in 2020. His run-game instincts are no better than average and he defensed zero passes
last year. Meanwhile, the only notable thing Ulysees Gilbert III has done in the NFL so far is have the name Ulysees Gilbert III.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Terrell Edmunds 25 SS 17 1145 95 10.3% 39 36 18 10 44 39% 33 6.0 23 35 8.9% 30 7.1 57% 34 6.3 27 6 2
Cameron Sutton 27 CB 16 1089 58 6.7% 70 25 12 10 17 35% 52 7.4 61 60 16.1% 71 11.4 55% 39 9.0 77 6 2
Minkah Fitzpatrick 26 FS 16 1083 131 15.1% 3 27 16 20 67 16% 71 10.0 70 26 7.0% 53 13.8 58% 33 4.9 8 7 2
Joe Haden* 33 CB 12 630 44 6.8% 67 16 3 8 13 15% 80 11.7 79 41 19.0% 47 12.9 56% 32 6.9 36 6 0
James Pierre 26 CB 17 414 41 4.5% -- 12 5 3 10 30% -- 12.4 -- 39 27.5% -- 13.8 49% -- 8.9 -- 4 1
Tre Norwood 23 FS 17 388 39 4.2% 75 17 13 6 9 44% 26 8.9 59 29 21.8% 1 10.9 55% 36 6.5 31 4 1
Arthur Maulet 29 CB 16 379 47 5.4% -- 25 6 2 26 77% -- 3.1 -- 18 13.9% -- 14.6 33% -- 11.4 -- 1 0
Ahkello Witherspoon 27 CB 9 368 24 4.9% -- 13 10 6 6 33% -- 7.0 -- 31 24.6% -- 13.2 74% -- 6.1 -- 9 3
Levi Wallace 27 CB 17 994 67 8.4% 44 29 12 6 19 58% 15 3.4 6 60 18.6% 53 10.4 58% 21 5.0 6 10 2
Damontae Kazee 29 SS 17 902 55 6.5% 73 14 7 12 26 27% 54 12.0 74 12 3.4% 75 13.8 67% 9 6.3 26 4 2

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 3 4.2% 19 -15.8% 5 20.4% 26 -30.5% 3 20.9% 29 -25.3% 3 -36.7% 3
2020 1 13.3% 24 -16.2% 4 -27.6% 2 5.7% 22 -6.5% 10 -48.4% 1 -3.8% 14
2021 8 -14.3% 5 -14.5% 8 -1.6% 15 -21.1% 4 -3.0% 9 -13.1% 10 -7.9% 15

Levi Wallace’s numbers jump off the page, and he has been a credible starter every season in Buffalo. But he was torched in
the playoffs by Kansas City—SIS charting lists him as the primary coverage on the Tyreek Hill touchdown in the fourth quarter,
the Travis Kelce 25-yard catch to get into field goal range, and a 26-yard first down to Mecole Hardman in overtime. The market
was less sanguine than our numbers, and Wallace has the contract of a stop-gap starter despite four years of solid production
for the Bills. 🏈 In his first year as a full-time starter, Cameron Sutton saw his yards per target jump from 6.4 to 9.0. Part of
the issue may be that the Steelers often kept him outside and the 5-foot-11, 188-pounder is a better fit for slot duties. On his 37
targets that came against slot receivers, Sutton allowed 8.0 yards per target, compared to 10.6 yards on 30 targets outside. 🏈
 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 217

Ahkello Witherspoon had one of the great out-of-nowhere second halves in recent memory. He picked off four passes—and had
another interception against the Chiefs called back—and allowed just 90 total yards in coverage from Week 12 on. Twenty-five
of 32 targets with him in coverage during that span were either incomplete or intercepted. We have seen Witherspoon play this
well in small chunks before. He might be worth a full season of snaps in Pittsburgh but his larger sample sizes in San Francisco
didn’t work out quite this well. 🏈 Arthur Maulet was the main backup corner last year and blitzed a surprising amount of the
time from the slot. It probably speaks to how his yards per target were so high that the Steelers were more interested in blitzing
with him than using him in coverage. 🏈 Minkah Fitzpatrick had a rough year in coverage by his standards, the kind of year
where you give up the 1-yard touchdown to Randall Cobb and the 41-yard Patrick Mahomes shot to Hardman in the playoffs.
But he often had to clean up Devin Bush’s messes from a distance and remains a high-caliber safety. Pittsburgh signed him to
a new four-year extension in June, making him the highest-paid safety in the NFL. 🏈 Terrell Edmunds found the market
lacking for his services and re-signed with Pittsburgh right before the draft. If you remember his lapses from 2018 and 2019,
trust that he’s a bit better in coverage over the last couple seasons, but he’s still an enforcer first and foremost.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 1.5% 8 10.7 2 5.4 5 -5.5 31 -9.1 28 5.9 3 -3.6 22
2020 1.3% 14 6.7 7 1.7 14 0.0 13 -2.0 22 0.2 17 -4.3 21
2021 0.2% 17 11.7 2 -2.6 25 0.7 12 -8.3 29 -0.8 18 5.2 9

Chris Boswell is entering the final season of his contract off a third consecutive year hitting at least 90% of his field goals
while dealing with the wonky winds of Heinz Field. 2022 UDFA kicker Nick Sciba (Wake Forest) was also signed, but it would
be hard to believe the Steelers would have Boswell lose a competition to Sciba. Sciba could be a practice squad candidate with
an eye to the future. 🏈 2021 seventh-rounder Pressley Harvin had a rough season as the Steelers fell almost off the table
in punt value and his father passed away on Christmas morning. Pittsburgh has Cameron Nizialek, who did some kickoffs for
Atlanta last year as well, lurking for a potential camp battle. 🏈 Last year’s primary returner Ray-Ray McCloud is off to
San Francisco, but the Steelers signed Gunner Olszewski away from New England, and Olszewski was an All-Pro returner in
2020. It wasn’t quite as peachy last year for Olszewski as the Patriots barely were above average in points gained from kickoff
and punt returns combined. He’s still much better than the Cameron Sutton/Anthony McFarland tandem Pittsburgh may have
otherwise been looking at.
 San Francisco 49ers
2021 record: 10-7 Total DVOA: 19.9% (6) 2022 Mean Projection: 8.8 wins On the Clock (0-5): 11%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.1 (12) Offense: 14.9% (5) Postseason Odds: 48.3% Mediocrity (6-8): 34%
Snap-Weighted Age: 27.3 (3) Defense: -7.4% (7) Super Bowl Odds: 5.9% Playoff Contender (9-11): 39%
Average Opponent: -0.5% (21) Special Teams: -2.4% (26) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.5% (21) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 15%

2021: One last dance before young Lance.

2022: Does the youngster seize his chance?

W hen the San Francisco 49ers traded up in the 2021 draft

to select quarterback Trey Lance from North Dakota
State, it seemed like a mere formality that Jimmy Garoppolo
in the first halves of games. Sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitch-
ell seized the starting running back role after incumbent start-
er Raheem Mostert sustained a season-ending injury in Week
would be traded at some point. Lance was pretty inexperi- 1, and much of Mitchell’s production can be attributed to the
enced as far as college prospects go, having only spent one offensive line spearheaded by Williams.
full college season as a starter at the FCS level in 2019, but Tight end George Kittle has been a key contributor for the
when a team selects a quarterback in the top three, it is only a 49ers since 2018, but the 2021 campaign was a bit of a down
matter of time before he gets on the field. year by his standards due to injury. With Kittle banged up for
While some may have been interested in seeing Lance right part of the year, San Francisco needed another pass-catcher
away (particularly in the fantasy football community, given to pick up some of the slack. Enter Deebo Samuel. After an
his rushing ability), the 49ers were trying to thread the nee- injury-marred 2020 campaign, the third-year pro came into
dle of remaining competitive while smoothly transitioning 2021 a bit overshadowed by some of the other talent around
at quarterback. Lance unsurprisingly needed more time than him. Fellow receiver Brandon Aiyuk had stepped up late in
just one training camp to acclimate to the professional level, 2020 during Samuel’s absence and seemed poised to take on a
pushing head coach Kyle Shanahan to roll with Garoppolo larger role in 2021. Samuel had other ideas. Through the first
throughout 2021. After all, Garoppolo had been at the helm eight games of the year, Samuel averaged over 110 receiving
for the team’s Super Bowl appearance just two seasons prior; yards per contest and provided a much-needed lift in the pass-
it is hard to blame Shanahan for sticking with him. ing game with Kittle hobbled.
Garoppolo rewarded that faith with an efficient season, But after that eighth game, Samuel’s season went from
finishing fifth in passing DVOA and 10th in passing DYAR. just an impressive breakout to something more special. The
Sure, there were moments where he would uncork a throw 49ers needed someone to step up after injuries to their run-
that would leave fans pulling their hair out, but the overall ning backs. Samuel had contributed some in the run game as
product ended up clearly positive. In the 49ers’ YAC-heavy a rookie, but that was mainly via an occasional jet sweep to
passing offense, Garoppolo largely executed what was asked keep defenses from overloading against their base wide zone
of him, distributing the ball to San Francisco’s playmakers action. 2021 represented something much different as Samuel
and enabling the offense to function at a high level when he started lining up in the backfield and taking standard handoffs
worked within the scheme. When paired with San Francisco’s in addition to his wide receiver responsibilities. Defenses had
fourth-ranked rushing attack, it made for a potent combination to account for him all over the field, which helped San Fran-
that helped the 49ers earn a playoff spot. cisco create massive headaches for opposing teams.
Garoppolo certainly did his job in pulling the strings, but Samuel alternated between gliding around would-be tack-
reaching the level that San Francisco’s offense did without a lers and running directly through their faces. It’s impossible
star at quarterback normally takes excellent talent throughout to fully encapsulate his impact through statistics alone, but he
the roster. The 49ers had no shortage of that, possessing a pleth- certainly posted some gaudy offensive numbers. His receiving
ora of threats all over the offense that kept defenses guessing as DYAR may not have matched up with some other top-tier re-
to who was going to be the focal point of a given play. ceivers, but he set the single-season record for rushing DYAR
San Francisco heavily emphasizes the rushing attack to try by a player listed as a wide receiver. Samuel racked up eight
to set up everything they do in the passing game off of play- rushing touchdowns over the course of the year; only two of
action, and it definitely helps when you employ a perennial those scores came from less than 10 yards from the goal line.
Pro Bowler at left tackle in Trent Williams. Williams made Not bad for a receiver who also recorded over 1,400 receiving
first-team All-Pro for the first time in his career and played a yards on the campaign. Samuel’s all-around offensive perfor-
major role in San Francisco’s rushing success. The 49ers led mance tied everything together for the 49ers’ offense, and his
the league in adjusted line yards when running off left tackle, play during the postseason was a major reason why the team
which helped justify their league-leading run play frequency reached the NFC Championship Game.
218
 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 219

2021 SF DVOA by Week

2022 49ers Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at CHI 7 KC 13 MIA
2 SEA 8 at LAR 14 TB 40%
3 at DEN 9 BYE 15 at SEA (Thu.) 20%
4 LAR (Mon.) 10 LAC 16 WAS (Sat.)
0%
5 at CAR 11 at ARI (Mon./Mex.) 17 at LV
6 at ATL 12 NO 18 ARI -20%

-40%

-60%

The 49ers may have fallen short of the ultimate goal, but -80%

with Samuel fresh off a breakout season, they had to be feel- -100%

ing comfortable about the future of their skill-position group

moving forward. It seemed like it was only a matter of time
before Samuel would receive a contract extension that would
make him one of the highest-paid players in the league, lock- fensive ends Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead and middle line-
ing in the team’s young star for the foreseeable future. There backer Fred Warner make for one heck of a starting point, but
was only one problem with that: it takes two to tango. a key part of what made the 49ers defense so successful was
The 49ers’ decision to use Samuel so heavily in the running its ability to send wave after wave of fresh linemen after op-
game worked wonders for their offense, particularly when posing offenses.
their running back group was depleted by injury, but it had The 49ers lost pass-rusher Arden Key and defensive tack-
the unintended effect of alienating their star player. Samuel les D.J. Jones and Kentavius Street in free agency, and while
expressed frustration over the increased wear and tear associ- those players were not as critical to the team’s success as Bosa
ated with the running back position and the potential for re- or Armstead up front, losing depth can take a unit from domi-
duced future compensation as a result of less work as a true nant to just pretty good. Defensive line coach Kris Kocurek
receiver. Things reached a boiling point over the offseason has developed a strong reputation for getting the most out of
and he requested a trade out of San Francisco that was not his defensive linemen, regardless of their draft pedigree, and
simply a negotiating ploy for more money. With no resolu- he will be tasked with doing so once again as the team tries to
tion immediately on the horizon at press time, Samuel’s status maintain its previous standard of success. In place of their out-
remains quite the thorny issue for San Francisco as they head going linemen, the 49ers brought in Kemoko Turay and Kerry
into 2022. Hyder, but they will also be counting on a step forward from
If the only thing San Francisco needed to worry about head- 2020 first-round pick Javon Kinlaw and 2022 second-round
ing into the season was a disgruntled star receiver, they would pick Drake Jackson.
probably be well-positioned to press onward despite the noise. To this point in his career, Kinlaw’s struggles have mainly
However, Samuel’s displeasure is but one of several issues been with health, and he will have plenty of opportunities to
that the team is facing as it enters the 2022 season. Much like take on a larger role at defensive tackle. Originally drafted as
the team’s preferred offensive approach, it all starts up front. a like-for-like replacement for stud interior defensive lineman
For a team that wants to run the ball as much as San Fran- DeForest Buckner, Kinlaw has not reached Buckner’s level of
cisco, it should come as no surprise that the offensive line play, though that is admittedly a very high bar to clear. Jack-
would drive the team’s success. While Trent Williams will son is poised to compete with the incumbent Samson Ebukam
return at left tackle for 2022, age is starting to creep in as a for chances to rush the passer in his first season out of USC,
potential concern as he will be 34 by Week 1. Right tackle and he displayed impressive bend and athletic tools as a pass-
Mike McGlinchey has been a solid starter in recent years, but rusher in college. Per scouting reports, Jackson needs to add
he is coming off a season-ending quadriceps tear in 2021. On more strength to handle stronger offensive linemen and hold
the interior, the free-agent departure of left guard Laken Tom- up better against the run, but the opportunity is there for him
linson and the retirement of center Alex Mack have left major to get after the quarterback in favorable matchups early on
holes to fill, putting the whole interior line into a state of flux. with offenses so focused on Bosa and Armstead. Based on the
The combination of aging and personnel turnover here makes early reports out of minicamp, Jackson’s coaches and team-
it likely that the group’s performance will take a step back. mates have been impressed with his desire to learn, which
On the opposite side of the ball, San Francisco will also be could help him earn playing time sooner rather than later.
facing some attrition on a defensive front that deserves most Regardless of who ends up playing most often for the 49ers
of the credit for the team’s 2021 defensive success. Defensive up front, the unit that finished fourth in the league in 2021 in
coordinator DeMeco Ryans’ charges finished second in run adjusted sack rate is going to have to help cover up for some
defense DVOA and seventh overall, and much of that can be potential weaknesses on the back end. In spite of that domi-
attributed to the deep rotation of defensive linemen capable nant defensive line play, the team only finished No. 15 in the
of getting into opposing backfields and wreaking havoc. De- league in pass defense DVOA, with San Francisco’s outside
220 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

cornerbacks serving as the glaring weak links in an otherwise young, and that high level of performance combined with his
very strong defensive chain. Between injuries and poor per- impressive physical tools both as a runner and a thrower had the
formance, the 49ers struggled to find a consistent pair of ef- 49ers jumping at the chance to select him with their top pick.
fective starting corners, and that likely pushed them to sign We would love to go into a long statistical analysis of whether
Kansas City’s Charvarius Ward to a hefty deal in free agency. Lance can develop into a top-level NFL starter, but it’s hard
Ward had a strong year in coverage in 2021 and should rep- enough to project quarterbacks with four years at the FBS level,
resent a clear upgrade over what the 49ers were running out let alone quarterbacks with just one year at the FCS level. All
there a season ago, but expecting him to alleviate the 49ers’ we can go on is scouting and the limited time we saw Lance on
coverage woes on his own is likely too much to ask. After all, the field in his first NFL season.
even if Ward finishes in the top 10 in coverage success rate Lance saw significant action in just three games: Weeks 4,
again, teams can always go after a weaker corner on the op- 5, and 17. Lance was pressed into action unexpectedly in relief
posite side. of an injured Garoppolo against Seattle in Week 4, when he
San Francisco does not have any true existential questions spent most of his time trying to improvise within a game plan
on the defensive side of the ball entering the 2022 campaign, that had been optimized for a quarterback with a much differ-
but there is enough uncertainty here that we are projecting ent skill set. When Lance got his first start in Arizona a week
them to take a step back as a group from their undeniably later, the team utilized a heavy dose of designed quarterback
strong 2021 season. If the team falters at all defensively, it will runs, play-action shots, and schemed easy completions to try
put even more pressure on the offense to carry the load, and to help Lance settle in. Lance battled some inconsistency with
that brings everything full circle to the quarterback question. his accuracy and decision-making against a strong Cardinals
At the start of last year, it seemed impossible that Jimmy defense, which can probably be chalked up to first-start jitters
Garoppolo would still be on the roster entering training camp and his overall inexperience. It probably did not help that the
of 2022, but an offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder 49ers committed approximately a bazillion offensive holding
cooled the trade market for his services amidst a truly insane penalties (it was only five, but felt like more).
quarterback carousel during the spring. Garoppolo may still Lance’s final start came in Week 17 against a struggling
be traded before the season starts, but until he is officially off Texans unit playing out the string, and his overall offensive
the roster, questions may linger about whether he would ever production improved while operating within a similar game
see the field if Lance struggles significantly in his first season plan as in Week 5. However, some of the same accuracy and
as the starting quarterback. decision-making issues presented themselves, as some late
The 49ers have made it very clear that they are transitioning decisions resulted in taking sacks or throwaways that other-
to Lance by not having Garoppolo present at OTAs while re- wise might have been avoided. Lance was better able to make
covering from his shoulder surgery, but it is worth discussing up for these issues with his impressive physical ability against
the costs and benefits of trading Garoppolo now. With just the weaker competition, scrambling around to extend plays and
2022 season remaining on Garoppolo’s deal, the 49ers would create new throwing windows to keep moving the chains,
only sustain a $1.4-million dead-money hit on their salary cap even if it was off schedule. It is also important to note that
if they were to cut or trade him. If Lance were to play at a level Lance spent the whole season dealing with a lingering fin-
warranting a benching, the team would not have a solid Plan B ger injury sustained during preseason that likely impacted his
with Garoppolo gone; such is the risk of rolling with a young- touch on every pass. Regardless, it was encouraging that he
ster. That said, Lance could benefit from not having to worry was able to move the ball more consistently in his final start,
about being benched in favor of a well-liked veteran. It would but it was clear that Shanahan was still handling him with kid
allow him to focus on the rest of the numerous responsibilities gloves given his inconsistency early in the year.
bestowed on starting quarterbacks, similar to the Mac Jones- Lance has drawn praise from influential offensive team-
Cam Newton dynamic in New England from a year ago. Ad- mates such as Kittle this offseason for how he has looked dur-
ditionally, the 49ers could potentially take advantage of a des- ing OTA practices even though Shanahan has been a bit more
perate team with a preseason quarterback injury and acquire evasive with his public assessments of Lance’s play. This sort
a draft asset for a player that is not in their long-term plans. of public backing from a locker room leader represents an or-
Keeping both quarterbacks into the season would provide the ganizational shift towards their highly drafted young signal-
team with some insurance if Lance scuffled (assuming a full caller. The 49ers opted to roll with a clearly hurting Garop-
return to health from Garoppolo), but from a people manage- polo during the 2021 stretch run and into the playoffs instead
ment perspective, it could be a very difficult needle to thread. of their talented rookie because Lance simply needed more
When Lance entered the league, he had effectively been a time to adjust to the NFL level, but the team following that
one-year starter at North Dakota State thanks to COVID cancel- route again in 2022 does not seem likely.
ing all but one game in 2020. Lance’s one year as the starter was If the 49ers want to replicate their unexpected run to the
quite impressive, as he averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt and NFC Championship Game, they are going to need Lance to
6.5 yards per rush attempt on 169 carries and did not throw an really hit the ground running. We are a bit hesitant there given
interception for the entire year as a 19-year-old en route to win- his lack of consistent in-game reps over the past two seasons.
ning the FCS National Championship. Even against that lower As such, all the uncertainty surrounding Lance, Samuel, and
level of competition, it was a standout showing for someone so the offensive line have us projecting an offensive decline for
 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 221

San Francisco after a top-five finish in 2021. As mentioned in Lance’s first season as the starter. They may end up falling
earlier, we anticipate a bit of slippage on defense as well, short, but for the long-term health of the franchise, it may be
meaning that the 49ers will likely take a step back overall in best for the 49ers to take those offensive lumps now, even if it
2022. The NFC West is not quite the beast it was in recent does not result in another playoff appearance right away.
years; as a result, San Francisco’s schedule is on the easier
side and sets the team up to still contend for a playoff berth Carl Yedor

2021 49ers by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at DET W 100% 41 33 442 430 -1 10% 26% 12% -5% Total DVOA 14.9% 5 -7.4% 7
2 at PHI W 92% 17 11 306 328 0 26% 3% -16% 6% Unadjusted VOA 16.9% 3 -4.1% 10
3 GB L 5% 28 30 298 353 -2 -1% 7% 19% 10% Weighted Trend 16.8% 4 -12.1% 5
4 SEA L 45% 21 28 457 234 -2 11% 23% -14% -25% Variance 5.5% 8 3.0% 3
5 at ARI L 15% 10 17 338 304 0 -4% -3% 2% 1% Average Opponent 0.9% 25 0.0% 17
6 BYE
7 IND L 3% 18 30 280 295 -2 -13% -34% -12% 9% Passing 32.7% 5 5.1% 15
8 at CHI W 100% 33 22 467 324 1 60% 62% 2% 0% Rushing 7.0% 4 -24.8% 2
9 ARI L 8% 17 31 337 437 -3 9% 23% 17% 3%
First Down 21.7% 1 -8.5% 8
10 LAR W 99% 31 10 335 278 2 62% 27% -29% 6%
Second Down 8.1% 12 -8.0% 7
11 at JAX W 89% 30 10 333 200 2 -2% -2% 5% 5%
Third Down 11.2% 10 -4.8% 12
12 MIN W 47% 34 26 423 323 1 8% 28% -8% -28%
13 at SEA L 99% 23 30 365 327 0 40% 0% -45% -4% First Half 11.0% 7 -10.5% 8
14 at CIN W 73% 26 23 355 397 2 6% 6% 2% 3% Second Half 18.7% 5 -4.5% 7
15 ATL W 100% 31 13 397 275 0 54% 51% -24% -21%
16 at TEN L 20% 17 20 389 278 -2 -10% -11% 1% 2% Red Zone 31.3% 2 -20.6% 4
17 HOU W 100% 23 7 416 222 0 38% 24% -15% 0% Late and Close 16.4% 7 -17.6% 2
18 at LAR W 88% 27 24 449 265 0 57% 34% -24% -1%
19 at DAL W 78% 23 17 341 307 0 35% -13% -45% 2%
20 at GB W 48% 13 10 212 263 0 -2% -43% -33% 8%
21 at LAR L 75% 17 20 282 396 0 23% 5% -15% 3%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 6-10 6.6 6.6 331 383 -3 -9.4% 21 -3.0% 19 9.1% 26 2.7% 11 23.8 8 69.8 32 27.3 9 25.4 29 25.8 18
2018 4-12 5.6 4.7 342 435 -25 -22.0% 30 -15.8% 27 6.5% 24 0.3% 14 54.4 26 42.8 25 26.7 17 25.1 30 25.2 30
2019 13-3 12.0 12.1 479 310 +4 29.0% 5 7.7% 7 -20.3% 2 1.0% 12 49.5 22 46.4 26 27.0 14 25.2 31 25.8 19
2020 6-10 7.6 8.6 376 390 -11 5.4% 11 -2.5% 20 -9.9% 6 -2.1% 23 78.7 30 87.9 32 26.7 17 26.2 19 26.2 12
2021 10-7 10.1 11.9 427 365 -4 19.9% 6 14.9% 5 -7.4% 7 -2.4% 26 45.0 19 74.5 29 28.2 3 26.8 10 26.6 7

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

SF Offense SF Offense vs. Opponents SF Defense SF Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 48% 6.8 35.5% 29% Base 50% 5.7 12.7% 63% Base 22% 4.5 -20.6% 11 63% 5.6 -3.9%
21 36% 6.3 14.1% 55% Nickel 35% 6.6 26.4% 34% Nickel 69% 5.3 -4.7% 12 21% 5.0 -6.7%
12 9% 5.7 -9.0% 65% Dime+ 12% 7.9 59.1% 7% Dime+ 7% 8.8 32.4% 21 5% 4.8 -46.7%
22 6% 4.6 4.8% 77% Goal Line 1% 0.1 -60.6% 57% Goal Line 1% -0.4 -93.8% 13 2% 2.5 -92.6%
23 1% 0.8 39.9% 83% Big 3% 7.8 3.9% 37% 10 2% 6.9 4.5%
611 3% 4.6 -28.4% 64%
22 3% 4.1 -2.8% 63%
222 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 44% 2 Form: Single Back 85% 9 Rush 3 10.3% 6 4 DB 26% 11 Play Action 22% 27
Runs, first down 47% 21 Form: Empty Back 7% 21 Rush 4 61.4% 29 5 DB 60% 17 Offensive Motion 42% 19
Runs, second-long 30% 14 Form: Multi Back 7% 17 Rush 5 19.4% 16 6+ DB 11% 21 Avg Box (Off) 6.52 12
Runs, power sit. 58% 16 Pers: 3+ WR 66% 15 Rush 6+ 9.0% 4 Man Coverage 33% 7 Avg Box (Def) 6.52 16
Runs, behind 2H 29% 15 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 26% 23 Edge Rusher Sacks 70.0% 4 CB by Sides 61% 24 Offensive Pace 32.64 29
Pass, ahead 2H 47% 17 Pers: 6+ OL 11% 2 Interior DL Sacks 15.0% 26 S/CB Cover Ratio 37% 2 Defensive Pace 31.04 16
Run-Pass Options 5% 25 Shotgun/Pistol 59% 24 Second Level Sacks 15.0% 17 DB Blitz 13% 11 Go for it on 4th 1.48 4

San Francisco has led the NFL in average yards after the catch for four straight seasons. The 49ers led the NFL in YAC
on targets at or behind the line of scrimmage (11.3) and were second behind Cincinnati in YAC on targets beyond the line of
scrimmage (5.3). As you might expect given all those yards after the catch, San Francisco had the league’s highest DVOA on
passes of 15 air yards or less. 🏈 This was the third straight year the 49ers led the NFL in using motion. 🏈 The 49ers
led the league by throwing 34% of passes in the middle of the field. 🏈 San Francisco led the league with 9.1 yards per pass
when using play-action. However, they only had 26.3% DVOA on play-action passes, 14th in the NFL, due to a lower success
rate plus five interceptions and five fumbles. In fact, San Francisco had a higher 36.1% DVOA without play-action, third in the
NFL, even though the 49ers averaged just 7.3 yards per pass on those plays. 🏈 The 49ers used 21 personnel nearly twice
as often as any other offense. Their 14.1% DVOA from 21 personnel was third among the teams that used 21 personnel on at
least 50 plays, trailing Indianapolis and Cleveland. 🏈 San Francisco opponents threw 29% of passes to their No. 1 receivers,
which led the league. The schedule played a role in this ranking, however; three of the top four defenses belonged to NFC West
teams (Arizona at 28% and the Rams at 26%). 🏈 Because of their schedule, which includes four games against the Rams
and Cardinals, the 49ers are always at the top of the league in how often they face wide receiver screens. And the 49ers were
outstanding on these plays (league-best -94.8% DVOA and just 3.2 yards per pass) after being average against wide receiver
screens in 2020. 🏈 Speaking of short passes, the 49ers were No. 3 in the league in DVOA against passes up to 15 air yards.
In particular, the 49ers were the best defense in the league against passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and the best defense
against wide receiver screens. However, they ranked 31st against deep passes of 16 or more air yards, better than only Chicago.
🏈 San Francisco had the league’s worst defense when blitzing, with 38.6% DVOA and 8.6 yards per play. By comparison,
the 49ers had -4.4% DVOA and allowed 6.0 yards per play with four pass-rushers. 🏈 Although the 49ers were just eighth
with 56 defensive penalties, they led the NFL with 629 defensive penalty yards, thanks in part to a league-leading 23 defensive
pass interference penalties. No other defense had more than 16 DPIs during the regular season. 🏈 San Francisco had a par-
ticularly small gap in the average yardage on plays by the two starting safeties, suggesting they were generally interchangeable.
🏈 The 49ers were at the bottom of the league with just 17% of their sacks coming as “non-pressure” sacks such as coverage
sacks and failed scrambles. They led the NFL with 27 sacks blamed directly on blown blocks. 🏈 The 49ers recovered 12 of
19 fumbles on offense but only eight of 27 fumbles on defense. Those 27 fumbles on defense tied Arizona for the league lead.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
J.Garoppolo 854 17.9% 467 3599 7.7 6.5 68.9% 20 12 D.Samuel 231 12.4% 122 78 1405 18.0 10.0 6 64%
T.Lance 148 20.4% 75 588 7.8 7.0 57.7% 5 2 B.Aiyuk 227 21.9% 83 55 826 15.0 6.3 5 66%
J.Jennings 44 2.2% 38 24 282 11.8 4.3 5 63%
M.Sanu* 36 4.5% 24 15 177 11.8 2.9 0 63%
Rushing T.Sherfield* -20 -25.8% 20 9 87 9.7 2.6 1 45%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc R.McCloud -183 -48.1% 65 38 277 7.3 2.9 0 58%
E.Mitchell 123 5.7% 207 963 4.7 5 0 50% M.Johnson 7 -8.6% 19 9 160 17.8 10.6 0 47%
J.Wilson -5 -9.9% 79 294 3.7 2 1 56% G.Kittle 166 20.1% 94 71 910 12.8 6.3 6 76%
D.Samuel 255 44.2% 59 365 6.2 8 0 - C.Woerner 11 24.1% 6 5 52 10.4 1.8 0 83%
T.Sermon 11 -2.8% 41 167 4.1 1 0 56% T.Kroft 19 4.0% 25 16 173 10.8 4.6 1 64%
T.Lance -11 -17.9% 36 171 4.8 1 0 - K.Juszczyk 114 42.6% 38 30 296 9.9 5.0 1 79%
J.Garoppolo -20 -23.7% 26 54 2.1 3 4 - J.Hasty -12 -21.0% 29 23 157 6.8 5.6 0 79%
J.Hasty 13 9.5% 16 68 4.3 1 0 56% E.Mitchell 52 41.2% 20 19 137 7.2 7.9 1 95%
K.Juszczyk -4 -16.0% 8 22 2.8 1 0 50% J.Wilson -3 -20.9% 8 7 31 4.4 6.1 0 88%
B.Aiyuk -2 -45.3% 5 17 3.4 0 0 -
 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 223

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Laken Tomlinson* LG 30 17/17 1091 5 0.0 12 8 Trent Williams LT 34 15/15 933 8 0.0 7 4
Daniel Brunskill RG 28 17/17 1086 2 4.5 16 9 Tom Compton* RT 33 17/7 570 2 4.5 16 2
Alex Mack* C 37 17/17 1085 2 0.5 6 11 Mike McGlinchey RT 27 8/8 466 5 1.5 8 3

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.80 4.53 8 67% 13 20% 20 1.32 7 1.16 3 8.2% 6 36 6.9% 15 26.0% 5 11.2% 5 25
2020 4.31 4.20 22 56% 29 21% 31 1.29 10 0.78 14 11.6% 23 39 5.5% 9 27.9% 22 15.3% 29 24
2021 4.34 4.40 11 65% 20 17% 14 1.29 6 0.64 15 8.8% 6 33 6.6% 17 25.3% 13 12.6% 10 32
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.91 (8) Left Tackle: 6.32 (1) Mid/Guard: 4.13 (20) Right Tackle: 3.86 (25) Right End: 3.84 (22)

Left tackle Trent Williams anchored the 49ers’ offensive line at age 33, earning a first-team All-Pro nod for the first time in
his excellent career. Williams did not allow a sack and finished first leaguewide in snaps per blown block at left tackle, and
the 49ers led the league in adjusted line yards when running off left tackle. 🏈 It’s a good thing that Williams is still around
because there is a substantial amount of uncertainty for the rest of the offensive line entering 2022. Veteran center Alex Mack
retired in early June after providing a reliable presence in the middle of the line. Given the freshness of Mack’s retirement, it
is currently unclear who will line up at center in 2022, with Daniel Brunskill (last year’s primary starter at right guard), Jake
Brendel (Mack’s backup in 2021), and undrafted rookie Dohnovan West (Arizona State) the most likely in-house options to fill
that role. San Francisco could also turn to a free agent not currently on the roster such as JC Tretter. 🏈 If Brunskill slides
to center, it would open up another hole at right guard, which 2021 fifth-round pick Jaylon Moore (Western Michigan) would
have the inside track to fill. Moore played sporadically in 2021 as an injury replacement for both Williams and starting right
tackle Mike McGlinchey. Moore is a bit undersized at tackle, which shows up in power-blocking situations, but his experience
playing in a zone-blocking scheme at Western Michigan gave him some scheme and technique familiarity when he ended up
joining San Francisco. 🏈 McGlinchey would be the locked-in right tackle starter if he were fully healthy, but he is still re-
covering from a torn quadriceps muscle that ended his 2021 season. This will be a big year for McGlinchey because he will be
playing out his fifth-year option in the hopes of setting himself up for a hefty payday. McGlinchey has been recovering quickly
from a pretty serious injury and expects to be ready for training camp; if he were to miss regular-season games, Justin Skule
would likely get the first shot at replacing him based on how the team lined up in OTAs. 🏈 At left guard, the 49ers need to
replace longtime starter Laken Tomlinson, who played every snap of the 2021 season (including playoffs) and missed just one
game in the five years he spent with San Francisco. Tomlinson’s three-year deal with the Jets creates an opportunity for 2021
second-round pick Aaron Banks (Notre Dame) to start after effectively redshirting as a rookie. Banks profiled as a big, physical
presence at guard with some questions about his ability to consistently win blocks when moving laterally when he was going
through the draft process, and a preseason shoulder injury set him back as he was trying to earn playing time as a rookie.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
D.J. Jones* 27 DT 17 550 56 6.6% 22 50 13 6 47 89% 2 1.1 2 2.0 1 11 0
Kevin Givens 25 DT 13 230 17 2.6% -- 13 3 3 16 81% -- 0.7 -- 0.0 2 6 0
Hassan Ridgeway 28 DT 17 373 20 2.3% -- 11 2 0 17 53% -- 4.2 -- 2.0 3 6 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Nick Bosa 25 DE 17 841 52 6.2% 31 44 25 3 34 76% 31 1.6 11 15.5 15 41 2
Arik Armstead 29 DE 17 820 63 7.5% 12 48 15 5 53 72% 45 2.7 54 6.0 5 26 0
Samson Ebukam 27 OLB 17 555 37 4.4% 67 28 10 1 25 72% 44 2.9 66 4.5 5 19 1
Arden Key* 26 DE 17 374 22 2.6% -- 16 9 3 12 50% -- 3.7 -- 6.5 11 18 0
Charles Omenihu 25 DE 15 356 18 2.3% -- 11 2 6 15 60% -- 4.3 -- 0.0 4 13 1
Kentavius Street* 26 DE 17 351 27 3.2% -- 22 9 2 21 76% -- 2.5 -- 3.0 4 5 0
Kerry Hyder 31 DE 15 506 33 3.8% 76 18 8 1 27 56% 88 2.7 58 1.5 9 16 0
Kemoko Turay 27 DE 13 224 9 1.4% -- 7 6 3 2 50% -- 3.0 -- 5.5 3 7 0
224 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Fred Warner 26 MLB 16 978 141 17.8% 11 68 16 12 79 56% 50 4.0 52 0.5 2 7 28 50% 35 6.8 41 4 0
Azeez Al-Shaair 25 OLB 13 730 107 16.6% 13 66 24 12 52 65% 15 3.5 23 2.0 0 3 33 58% 18 5.2 17 5 1
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles 26 OLB 17 163 20 2.4% -- 10 1 2 7 100% -- 1.7 -- 0.0 0 0 1 0% -- 9.0 -- 0 0
Dre Greenlaw 25 OLB 3 113 22 14.8% 25 16 2 2 12 83% 1 2.6 2 0.0 1 1 6 83% -- 2.8 -- 1 1
Oren Burks 27 ILB 17 205 26 3.2% -- 12 4 5 13 46% -- 5.2 -- 0.5 1 3 9 44% -- 5.4 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.23 4.16 13 50% 2 20% 14 1.29 23 0.67 12 12.6% 17 48 9.0% 2 30.8% 13 15.8% 10
2020 3.72 4.10 8 67% 19 21% 6 1.05 5 0.48 6 11.6% 21 30 5.3% 24 26.5% 12 11.1% 24
2021 3.57 3.56 2 66% 12 21% 6 0.88 2 0.56 13 18.9% 3 48 8.0% 5 27.0% 10 17.1% 5
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.16 (6) Left Tackle: 3.33 (3) Mid/Guard: 3.76 (5) Right Tackle: 3.71 (7) Right End: 1.72 (1)

It all starts up front with Nick Bosa, who led the league in tackles for loss and finished fourth in sacks. Bosa worked in tan-
dem with Arik Armstead on the opposite side to spearhead a 49ers front that finished second in run defense DVOA. Armstead
sacrificed some individual production by sliding to defensive tackle more often at midseason, but the coaching staff lauded his
flexibility and credited him for the team’s uptick defending the run later in the year. 🏈 Armstead’s ability to kick inside
created all kinds of matchup problems when rushing the passer, enabling Samson Ebukam, Arden Key, and Kentavius Street
to produce effectively in rotational roles. Ebukam needed some time to adjust in his transition from a 3-4 outside linebacker to
a 4-3 defensive end, but by season’s end he was producing at a higher level rushing the passer. He was also reliable, with just
one broken tackle on the season. Key racked up 6.5 sacks on about one-third of the team’s snaps and leveraged that efficiency
as a pass-rusher into a solid pay raise with the Jaguars on a $4-million deal. Street was not quite as disruptive and as such had
to settle for a smaller deal with the Saints. 🏈 The 49ers signed Kemoko Turay and Kerry Hyder in free agency to replenish
some of that lost depth. Defensive line coach Kris Kocurek’s track record should inspire confidence that Turay and Hyder will
make apt replacements. It’s a return for Hyder after a year in Seattle; he had 8.5 sacks and 39 hurries for the 49ers two years
ago. 🏈 Former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw lost most of the season to an ACL tear but should reclaim his role with D.J.
Jones gone to Denver in free agency. 🏈 Middle linebacker Fred Warner was the lynchpin of San Francisco’s defensive
scheme, covering a large amount of ground in pass coverage to help cover up for some of the 49ers’ defensive back weaknesses.
Warner paired with Azeez Al-Shaair, who stepped into a full-time starting role for the first time in the absence of Dre Green-
law. Al-Shaair mostly served as a backup in his first two seasons, but Greenlaw’s early-season groin injury forced Al-Shaair to
handle more responsibilities. With Greenlaw returning, the expectation is that Al-Shaair will slide back into the third spot in the
linebacker pecking order and play on the strong side. Of course, that assumes Al-Shaair is ready for the start of the season after
recovering from offseason surgeries on both his knee and his shoulder.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Jimmie Ward 31 FS 16 992 81 10.2% 43 27 13 3 38 29% 51 9.4 63 26 7.8% 44 10.8 54% 41 6.8 33 6 2
Josh Norman* 35 CB 15 766 54 7.3% 60 20 9 8 14 50% 22 4.7 18 46 17.9% 60 15.1 46% 70 9.8 78 5 1
Jaquiski Tartt* 30 SS 14 727 64 9.2% 54 27 13 11 30 47% 21 5.3 14 17 7.0% 54 11.4 65% 12 6.2 25 1 0
K'Waun Williams 31 CB 14 648 56 8.1% -- 28 18 8 19 53% -- 3.5 -- 27 12.5% -- 8.1 33% -- 8.7 -- 4 1
Emmanuel Moseley 26 CB 11 602 52 9.5% 25 23 8 6 12 58% 13 6.5 46 38 18.9% 49 14.2 58% 23 6.1 22 11 1
Talanoa Hufanga 23 SS 15 395 32 4.3% -- 14 8 4 14 43% -- 8.3 -- 12 9.1% -- 14.4 58% -- 9.3 -- 2 0
Marcell Harris* 28 SS 15 336 38 5.1% -- 21 8 10 25 56% -- 3.4 -- 9 8.0% -- 2.9 44% -- 4.2 -- 1 1
Ambry Thomas 23 CB 12 333 24 4.0% -- 8 4 1 3 33% -- 3.3 -- 23 20.6% -- 19.4 48% -- 11.9 -- 5 1
Dontae Johnson 31 CB 16 260 24 3.0% -- 14 6 5 8 63% -- 3.4 -- 18 20.7% -- 10.6 44% -- 9.6 -- 2 0
Deommodore Lenoir 23 CB 13 237 15 2.3% -- 5 3 1 2 0% -- 11.0 -- 19 24.0% -- 17.4 53% -- 10.2 -- 2 0
Charvarius Ward 26 CB 13 753 77 11.8% 4 20 8 4 26 19% 77 8.2 67 67 24.2% 11 14.7 63% 10 6.0 19 10 2
George Odum 29 FS 17 471 47 5.5% -- 7 3 4 19 11% -- 11.2 -- 18 9.6% -- 15.0 50% -- 10.4 -- 2 1

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 2 -9.0% 10 -2.8% 13 -15.8% 7 -22.0% 8 3.6% 11 -33.4% 2 -63.8% 1
2020 7 -25.4% 1 0.5% 17 9.3% 23 5.3% 21 -7.4% 9 -25.1% 3 1.7% 19
2021 15 22.4% 30 0.8% 18 0.3% 18 10.3% 28 11.9% 23 -22.5% 5 -17.9% 4
 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 225

The cornerback position was an absolute mess for the 49ers all year, with eight different players starting at least one game
at the position. In Week 1, the 49ers started veteran Jason Verrett and fifth-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir, but Verrett tore
his ACL immediately while Lenoir was benched after Week 2 and barely played the rest of the season. Emmanuel Moseley
regained a starting job by Week 4 and provided the most ball production among San Francisco’s defensive backs, finishing with
11 passes defensed and one interception. But Moseley only got on the field for 11 games, forcing the 49ers to cycle through a
combination of 34-year-old Josh Norman, career backup Dontae Johnson, and third-round rookie Ambry Thomas. 🏈 San
Francisco’s cornerback struggles compelled the team to sign Kansas City’s Charvarius Ward to a hefty free-agent deal. Ward’s
coverage success rate of 63% would have led the 49ers by a healthy margin in 2021. K’Waun Williams signed with the Broncos
in free agency, opening the door for either Moseley or Lenoir to seize the nickel role for 2022 when Verrett is healthy enough to
play outside. 2022 fifth-rounder Samuel Womack could also make a case for that nickel spot. The Toledo product is undersized
(5-foot-10, 187 pounds) and not very physical but has good coverage and ball skills. 🏈 Jaquiski Tartt had a bit of a tackling
issue, with 11 broken tackles compared to 13 in the previous three seasons combined. That may have contributed to San Fran-
cisco’s decision to let him walk in free agency. Jimmie Ward returns to start at safety alongside new addition George Odum
(ex-Colts). Odum was elected to the 2020 All-Pro team for his special teams coverage; last year he played the most defensive
snaps of his career, starting seven games with middling results. Tarvarius Moore returns from a torn Achilles to back them up;
he had good run metrics in 2020.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 1.0% 12 -5.7 27 0.5 16 1.3 10 6.4 7 2.4 9 -5.9 24
2020 -2.1% 23 -1.5 17 -2.0 21 -5.0 31 2.0 16 -3.9 27 -9.0 26
2021 -2.4% 26 0.1 15 -7.0 30 -9.8 32 4.6 5 -0.5 16 -0.2 18

The 49ers’ low ranking here was driven almost entirely by brutal kickoff coverage and kickoff returns. 🏈 The 49ers used
running backs Trenton Cannon and JaMycal Hasty as their primary kick returners in 2021, and both finished in the bottom five
of kick return value among qualifying players. Part of that negative value was a kick return fumble from each player. The poor
performance helps explain the two-year contract signed by Ray-Ray McCloud, a return specialist who will hopefully mitigate
some of San Francisco’s return game issues. However, McCloud has slightly negative value over the past three years on both
kickoff and punt returns. 🏈 McCloud’s presence will also free up wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to focus more on offense
as he enters his third season; the former first-round pick was the primary punt returner in 2021 and was below average but not
disastrous in that role. 🏈 The 49ers’ struggles on kickoffs may be partially attributed to the fact that they have a punter
handling most of that work. Mitch Wishnowsky served as the primary option on kickoffs in addition to his punting workload; he
was solid as a punter but may have been stretched a bit thin having to handle both jobs to accommodate the veteran placekicker
Robbie Gould. Wishnowsky’s kickoffs resulted in a touchback only 37.5% of the time in 2021, which was the sixth-lowest
frequency among players with at least 10 kickoffs, though that can often stem from a specific coaching decision. 🏈 Robbie
Gould is generally effective but not spectacular on field goals and extra points. His three misses last season all came from over
40 yards, although one of them prevented the 49ers from beating Cincinnati in regulation. Gould will be back at age 39 for his
18th year in the NFL.
 Seattle Seahawks
2021 record: 7-10 Total DVOA: 11.7% (9) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.2 wins On the Clock (0-5): 27%
Pythagorean Wins: 9.3 (15) Offense: 12.7% (7) Postseason Odds: 24.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 44%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.8 (9) Defense: 3.5% (21) Super Bowl Odds: 1.4% Playoff Contender (9-11): 24%
Average Opponent: 1.0% (12) Special Teams: 2.5% (5) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 0.2% (15) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 5%

2021: It’s hard to win football games when you never have the ball.

2022: It’s even harder to win football games when you don’t have a quarterback.

T he skies in Seattle were chilly and gray, typical for March in

the region and as gloomy as the mood in the room. Though
news of Russell Wilson’s trade to the Denver Broncos had
For all their inconsistencies, however, the Seahawks still
ranked eighth in passing offense and sixth when running the
ball. It was their defense that really cost them a playoff berth.
broken a week earlier, NFL rules forbade the Seahawks from The cracks in that defense began to show late in training
making public comment on it until now. In the seven days in camp. A flurry of trades in the weeks leading up to the season
between, Seattle coach Pete Carroll had faced more criticism opener left defensive coordinator Ken Norton with no starting
than he had at any point since Super Bowl XLIX. Now came his corners—his top duo, Sidney Jones and D.J. Reed, came into
chance to defend himself and general manager John Schneider, the year with just 24 starts in a combined seven NFL seasons
to restore faith in the fan base, to create excitement about a new between them. And the Seahawks didn’t even bother with a
season. Forty minutes later, he had done the opposite. By the nickelback; they just stuck backup safety Ugo Amadi in the
end of his press conference, Carroll had made it clear that the slot on third downs and called it good.
NFL had passed him by, and that his team was going to play an Norton did his best to protect his overmatched corners. He
obsolete brand of football as long as he was in charge. used man-to-man coverage a league-low 15% of the time,
The quotes from that press conference help explain how Se- usually relying on Carroll’s traditional Cover-3 schemes with
attle fell to 7-10 in 2021, their first losing season in a decade. Jones, Reed, and Quandre Diggs dropping deep. This opened
They explain why Carroll so badly underrated not just Wilson, up other problems, however, which in turn revealed other flaws,
but NFL quarterbacks in general. And they show why there like a Rube Goldberg machine from hell. Jamal Adams, Seat-
are likely to be more losing seasons in the decade to come. tle’s best pass-rusher in 2020, was left ineffectually roaming
the hook zones. Without Adams blitzing, the pass rush was neu-
“Last year kinda sucked. That was that one time, we had tered. Necessity forced Norton to get inventive, and he experi-
that space in the schedule here. We’re just going right back mented with NASCAR-type lines (putting four edge rushers on
to business.” the field at the same time) and odd-man fronts. Seattle used a
Everyone will agree that 2021 kinda sucked for Seattle. Af- 3-4 almost as often as they used a 4-3 … only they weren’t built
ter putting up nine straight winning seasons, the Seahawks to use that scheme, so it was really a 5-2 with defensive ends
fell as far as five games under .500 before a too-little, too-late such as Carlos Dunlap and Benson Mayowa dropping off into
surge brought them four meaningless wins in December and coverage. To summarize: Norton was left with ends pretending
January. They paired a boom-and-bust offense with a bend- to be tackles, pass-rushers pretending to be defensive backs, a
don’t-break defense but ended up with too much busting and blitz specialist pretending to be a safety, and backup corners
breaking to make it work. pretending to be starters. It was an entire scheme of men play-
Seattle’s offense specialized in the deep ball. Wilson led the ing out of position, with a square peg to fit every round hole.
NFL with a 10.2-yard average depth of target and was sixth The resulting pass defense can be summed up in two stats:
in DVOA on passes that traveled 20-plus yards downfield, but
the offense lacked a good third wideout or reliable receiving • The average pass thrown by opposing quarterbacks trav-
back, and Seattle’s tight ends failed to produce on mid-range eled 7.0 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, second
passes. And, as always, Seattle struggled to keep either Wilson shortest in the league.
or Geno Smith upright and throwing passes in the first place. • Opposing quarterbacks were successful on 51% of their
Seattle’s rushing attack was also explosive but unreliable. dropbacks, effectively tied with Jets and Houston for
As a unit, Seahawks running backs ranked fourth or higher in worst in the league.
rushing DYAR, rushing DVOA, and average yards per carry,
but they were below average in both success rate and stuff The Seahawks were content to die by a thousand cuts, and
rate. It defies belief, but Seattle’s offense somehow managed opponents were happy to slice them up like an onion. A full
to rank 10th in first-down DVOA and first on second downs, 86% of passes against Seattle were marked short in the official
yet still averaged a league-high 7.4 yards to go on third downs. play-by-play, the most in the league, and the Seahawks DVOA
226
 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 227

2021 SEA DVOA by Week

2022 Seahawks Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 DEN (Mon.) 7 at LAC 13 at LAR
2 at SF 8 NYG 14 CAR 40%
3 ATL 9 at ARI 15 SF (Thu.) 20%
4 at DET 10 at TB (Ger.) 16 at KC (Sat.)
0%
5 at NO 11 BYE 17 NYJ
6 ARI 12 LV 18 LAR -20%

-40%

-60%

of 9.3% on those plays was second worst ahead of only the Jets. -80%

Seattle surrendered 1,105 receiving yards to running backs, sec- -100%

ond most in our database behind the 1,152 given up by the 2010
Titans. (Remember that Tennessee team, we’ll get back to them
shortly.) Seattle’s whole game plan was to sit back and wait for
opposing quarterbacks to beat themselves, but in the NFL, even
backup quarterbacks will roast you if given half a chance, and Table 1. Worst Plays Per Game
that’s exactly what happened to the Seahawks. The quartet of
Taylor Heinicke, Colt McCoy, Nick Foles, and Tim Boyle com- Differential, 1950-2021
pleted over 70% of their passes against Seattle for 7.0 yards per
throw. Three of their teams beat the Seahawks, while Boyle’s Year Team
Plays Per Opp. Plays
Difference W-L
Game Per Game
Lions scored 29 points in defeat.
Seattle’s defense fared much better against the run but had a 1999 CLE 54.1 72.4 -18.3 2-14
similar bend-don’t-break design—they were third in average 2000 CLE 53.7 70.1 -16.4 3-13
yards per carry allowed to running backs, but 19th in success 1969 CIN 52.0 66.8 -14.8 4-9-1
rate. 2021 SEA 56.1 70.6 -14.5 7-10
2010 TEN 56.7 71.2 -14.5 6-10
“You don’t change your philosophy. Your philosophy is what 1975 SD 58.6 73.0 -14.4 2-12
it is. You either believe it or you don’t. What happens is every 2005 SF 54.1 68.1 -14.1 4-12
year the players change, and as you apply your philosophy 1990 DET 54.4 67.5 -13.1 6-10
for your players, it takes on the shape of the individuals that 1967 ATL 54.5 67.6 -13.1 1-12-1
you’re dealing with. But you don’t change your philosophy.” 1972 STLC 53.9 66.8 -12.9 4-9-1
Last year’s Seahawks were a cartoon caricature of a Pete 1987 ATL 58.7 71.3 -12.7 3-12
Carroll team, displaying all the strengths of his prior clubs— 1968 ATL 54.4 66.9 -12.4 2-12
explosive plays, turnovers, and the kicking game—but also
exaggerating all their flaws. The 2021 Seahawks produced 17 the state of Ohio, that’s the worst margin of any team since at
more 20-yard plays than they allowed and were +5 in take- least 1950 (Table 1).
away margin while finishing fifth in special teams DVOA, the 1999 and 2000 were the first years of the NuBrowns in
only team to finish in the top 10 in each of those three phases Cleveland; 1969 was the second season in the history of the
of the game. Ten other teams made the top 20 in all three, and Cincinnati Bengals. (Quarterback historians will also recog-
eight of them made the playoffs. But when they weren’t scor- nize this as the Greg Cook year.) Before Seattle, the most re-
ing long touchdowns or diving on loose balls, the Seahawks cent team to appear is the aforementioned 2010 Titans, whose
were a fairly rotten squad. Seattle had a 44.3% success rate team and coach were similar to last year’s Seahawks. After a
on offense but allowed a 47.7% success rate on defense. That long string of winning seasons, Tennessee lost 10 games, but
differential of -3.4% was a bottom-10 rate, and Pittsburgh was like Seattle, they fared much better in DVOA, where they just
the only team in the bottom 10 to make the postseason. missed the top 10. Jeff Fisher’s tenure in Tennessee looked a
So while Seattle’s offense almost never turned the ball over lot like Carroll’s does now. Fisher, like Carroll, was his fran-
(third-lowest rate of turnovers per drive), they mixed a lot of chise’s all-time winningest coach, and he too relied on his run-
quick-strike scoring drives with a lot of three-and-outs. All ning backs, so much so that Chris Johnson had run for over
those punts and kickoffs gave Seattle’s defense the league’s 2,000 yards the year before. And a decade prior, Fisher had
best average starting field position, yardage the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl with a scrambling quarterback, only
gave right back one clock-draining first down at a time. Se- to lose at the goal line. But despite that past success, Fisher
attle’s offense was on the field for 56.1 plays per game, fewest was fired after the season. The 2000 Browns, 1972 Cardinals,
in the league; their defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per and 1968 Falcons also fired their coaches. Most of the coaches
game, most in the league. That’s a deficit of -14.5 plays per in Table 1 who were not fired were only in their first or second
game, and outside of a handful of expansion-era teams from years on the job. Carroll stands out as the one name who had
228 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

been around awhile and developed a team that could not keep roll and Schneider. Whether the rift was practical, personal, or
its offense on the field but was allowed to stay. philosophical, a failed relationship with a quarterback of Wil-
While time of possession is an overrated statistic, it’s hard son’s caliber represents a serious dereliction of duties on their
to deny the effect this extreme imbalance had on Seattle’s de- part, especially when they had no clear plan to replace him.
fense, which went from a -3.6% DVOA in the first quarter
to -0.4% in the second, 6.4% in the third, and 9.9% in the “We were surprised how good a deal came to us. … It
fourth—and remember, negative numbers mean better de- opened up some doorways we didn’t think existed at the time.”
fense. They can partly blame themselves for this because they We have no idea what Carroll had to gain by negging his old
gave up plenty of long drives in the first half. Meanwhile, Wil- quarterback after the trade had been made. It raises the ques-
son and the offense frequently found themselves with good tion of what Carroll sees as fair value for a quality starting
field position but no time to do anything with it. They closed quarterback. What was he expecting, a pair of Day 3 picks?
the first halves against Tennessee, Minnesota, and Green Bay For the record, here’s the haul Seattle got in exchange for
with Hail Mary-type plays from between the 40s on first or Wilson and a fourth-round pick:
second down and tried a field goal on third-and-3 to end the
half against the Rams. (Jason Myers missed the kick, which • First-, second-, and fifth-round picks in 2022, which turned
was an issue unto itself.) into offensive tackle Charles Cross, edge rusher Boye
Clearly, changes needed to be made. Norton, who had been Mafe, and a trade with Kansas City that brought in edge
Seattle’s defensive coordinator for five seasons and had spent rusher Tyreke Smith and wide receiver Dareke Young.
16 years working with Carroll dating back to their time at • First- and second-round picks in 2023.
USC, was fired, scapegoated to cover the shoddy roster Car- • A trio of veterans: tight end Noah Fant, defensive line-
roll and Schneider had built. Defensive line coach Clint Hurtt man Shelby Harris, and quarterback Drew Lock.
was promoted to coordinator in Norton’s place and tasked
with managing Seattle’s full-time shift to a 3-4 base. It’s the last of those names that could be under the biggest
You’re aware of the biggest change they made on offense. pressure this fall. Lock will compete with Geno Smith to re-
place Wilson under center.
“When you’re in college, every four or five years you lose
all your guys and you start new quarterbacks. Nine years at “The competition is on. It ain’t no different than when Matt
USC, we had Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, then [Mark] Flynn and Russell Wilson went at it. Same kind of deal.”
Sanchez and [John David] Booty and [Matt] Barkley, and you There’s actually a significant difference between a Lock-
just keep marching, that’s how you do it. ... Guys graduate Smith quarterback competition in 2022 and the Flynn-Wil-
eventually here, it just comes much later in their time, it takes son camp battle of 2012, and assuming you can find a start-
them longer to get out of school.” ing quarterback by pitting a pair of rejects from other teams
In public statements issued via Twitter, the Seahawks did against each other reeks of arrogance. Ten years ago, Flynn
their best to save face, with Carroll discussing “Russ’ desire in and Wilson were both unknowns with high upside. Flynn ar-
doing something different,” Schneider saying it was “evident rived in Seattle with only two starts under his belt, but in those
Russell was interested in playing elsewhere,” and team owner two starts he had thrown for over 700 yards with nine touch-
Jody Allen declaring “Russell made it clear he wanted this downs. Wilson had put up good numbers in college at North
change.” Carroll and Schneider declined to say much more at Carolina State and great numbers at Wisconsin; he would
the press conference. Carroll denied any strife between him- have been a top-five draft pick if not for questions about his
self and his quarterback, saying “it wasn’t about the relation- height, questions that look ridiculous in hindsight.
ship, it was about opportunity.” Schneider said he was “under Lock and Smith, on the other hand, are known failures. The
the impression that there wouldn’t be a long-term extension” Seahawks offense with Smith in 2021 was horrendous, aver-
when Wilson’s contract expired in 2024, though whether that aging 25.4 yards and 1.68 points in 38 drives and scoring a
means Wilson wanted out of town or Schneider didn’t want to touchdown 18.4% of the time. All of those numbers would
pay him remains unclear. have been in the bottom 10 in the league over the full sea-
Carroll has often run the Seahawks like a college team, son; the yardage figure would have been second worst, better
with little fear of player turnover. That can sometimes be a than only the lowly Texans. Smith’s numbers are also boosted
good thing (releasing Bobby Wagner and saving over $16 mil- by scoring three touchdowns against a wretched Jacksonville
lion in cap space was a savvy move), but it can also lead to team. Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jimmy Garop-
change for change’s sake, as if the coach is bored with seeing polo also had good games against Jacksonville last year, but
the same old seniors every day and yearns for the variety of a nobody’s clamoring for them to start in 2022.
freshman class. The notion that Wilson had “graduated” from As for Lock…
the Seahawks, that he had nothing left to offer the team, is
ridiculous on its face. “If [Lock] plays like he did early on, I think we got a shot.
Wilson had a no-trade clause in his contract, which means If you go back to his first year when he was balling, as a
he had to approve the deal. That means part of him did want rookie, when he was 4-1, his third-down numbers were ter-
out of Seattle, which in and of itself is an indictment of Car- rific. Taking care of the football really well. The coordinator
 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 229

left after that time, times changed for him, and he didn’t play of a neck injury, and Rashaad Penny has never made it through
to that same level.” a full season. The problem is that Carson and Penny are so beat
The Seahawks are putting a lot of faith in a five-game sample up because they are running backs, and most running backs
from three years ago while ignoring the 16 games Lock has don’t last very long. It’s likely that Walker puts up one big sea-
started since. But yes, Lock won four of his five starts as a rook- son, maybe two, then suffers his own health setback and needs
ie … against Chargers, Texans, Lions, and Raiders teams that to be replaced before the end of his rookie deal. Using high
finished a combined 25-38-1, none of them making the top 20 picks on running backs is like buying a brand-new car: making
in defensive DVOA. Lock’s passing DVOA of 2.2% in his first a major investment in a rapidly depreciating asset.
year was certainly encouraging (Tom Brady’s DVOA that same
season was 2.4%), and that DVOA climbed to 36.5% on third/ “What we need in our offense is the same thing we’ve al-
fourth downs. But while Carroll is hailing that as a strength, ways needed, whether it’s Carson Palmer or Russell Wilson.
it’s actually a red flag—unless you’re Patrick Mahomes, ab- We need a point guard. We need a guy that plays the game
normally high performance on third/fourth downs is typically and moves the football around to the guys that are open, and
unsustainable and a sign of likely regression down the road. does all of the things, manages the game so that we can play
Indeed, Lock has regressed sharply since his rookie year. great football. Because we’re gonna win with defense, we’re
In 2020, he threw the most interceptions in the NFL and fin- gonna win with how we play on special teams, and we’ll run
ished 28th with a DVOA of -16.2%; in limited action in 2021, the football to help the whole thing fit together.”
he posted a similar DVOA of -15.0%. The people in Denver Carroll’s disdain for quarterbacks goes so deep that he re-
clearly believed he was the problem and not a victim of cir- fers to them by positions from another sport. He has been call-
cumstances, and the evidence agrees with them. The Broncos ing his passers point guards for a long time now—he used
went .500 in Teddy Bridgewater’s 14 starts in 2021, but they that term to praise Wilson’s performance against Denver after
lost seven of their last eight games with Lock in the starting the Super Bowl win—but it’s not clear what he means by that
lineup. Since Bridgewater is now backing up Tua Tagovailoa other than “a quarterback who doesn’t throw many passes.”
with the Dolphins, we can reasonably infer that Lock would In 2022, however, the notion that you can win in the NFL
be a third-stringer in Miami. Yet he could be the best quarter- with running, defense, and special teams and a quarterback
back in Seattle. who “manages the game so we can play great football” makes
about as much sense as an NBA team trying to win without
“There’s a lot that’s happened and a lot going on that ex- shooting three-pointers.
cites the hell out of us. This is a great time for us. It’s a great Here is the point in the essay where we would historically
challenge for us. This is that challenging time of year, and point out that yardage totals can be deceiving and efficiency
yeah, we’re faced with some challenges, but all we see is metrics such as yards per pass or DVOA are more telling, but
what’s gonna go the right way. What’s gonna happen for us. the game has swung so strongly towards the pass that we don’t
We look at this just like every other year. We’re trying to build have to do that anymore. Twelve of the 14 teams that made
a championship freakin’ football team right. Now.” the playoffs last year ranked in the top 15 in passing yardage.
Seattle’s personnel changes go beyond the quarterback. The Only two—Tennessee and Philadelphia—were below aver-
Seahawks literally turned over half their starting lineup. The age, and neither of them won a playoff game. Meanwhile, six
Wilson trade brought new faces at tight end and defensive of last year’s playoff teams were below average in rushing
line; the draft added a pair of tackles; free agency brought in a yards, including the Rams and Bengals teams that met in the
new center, an edge rusher, and a corner. Super Bowl. The Eagles were first in rushing yards, followed
Oh, and they drafted another running back. Of course they by three non-playoff teams in the Colts, Ravens, and Browns.
did—they’re addicted. Despite major question marks at other The easiest way to make the playoffs in the modern NFL is
positions, Seattle used a second-round draft pick on Michigan by picking up massive chunks of real estate through the air.
State’s Kenneth Walker, the 12th running back selected by Car- Going out of your way to avoid doing this is self-sabotage and
roll and Schneider in 13 drafts in Seattle. According to Chase should have a coach worried about his job security. In Seattle,
Stuart’s draft value chart at Football Perspective, only two that doesn’t seem to be the case.
teams have devoted a higher percentage of their draft capital
to running backs in that time frame. The first is the Rams, who “But when it came right down to it [Jody Allen] said ‘what
drafted Todd Gurley 10th overall in 2015 and have been trading I see this doing to you guys, John, you’re back in your wheel-
all their picks away ever since. The other is the Lions, who re- house, Pete, you’re back in your wheelhouse.’ And she’s stat-
main the Lions in part because they keep ignoring more pressing ing, knowing that we have so many opportunities to work and
needs to draft the likes of Jahvid Best, Ameer Abdullah, Ker- deal and wheel, hopefully, our creative approach to what we
ryon Johnson, and D’Andre Swift. Mind you, this only counts do and make really positive things happen.”
the players Seattle actually drafted. If you add in the fourth- and Paul Allen never set out to be an NFL owner. Neither did
fifth-round picks they shipped to Buffalo in exchange for Mar- his sister Jody, who inherited the Seahawks upon her brother’s
shawn Lynch, the Seahawks move into first place. death. She’s a busy woman, running multiple real estate and
Carroll defenders will point out that Seattle has health issues construction endeavors, producing films, serving on the boards
at running back—Chris Carson’s career is likely over because of several museums, and giving out millions of dollars in grants
230 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

every year. That’s before she gets to her sports teams, including been successful for a long time. Since Carroll and Schneider
the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and Major League Soccer’s arrived in 2010, Seattle has won 129 regular-season and play-
Sounders FC. She has never given an interview since taking off games; only the Patriots, Packers, and Chiefs have won
over the Seahawks, but indications are that she takes a hands- more. The Seahawks had won nine games in two years before
off approach to her football team. While she obviously had to Carroll and Schneider took over and were 30th in DVOA in
approve the Wilson trade, she trusted that Carroll and Schneider their first season, but they finished first in DVOA every year
have a history of success and know what they’re doing. from 2012 to 2015 and haven’t fallen lower than 15th since.
Portland radio host John Canzano reported in May that terms You can’t take away their five division championships or their
of Paul Allen’s trust dictated that his sports teams must be sold, two conference championships, and certainly not their Super
and that the Blazers would have new owners by the end of Bowl title.
2023. However, Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times reports that But since that Super Bowl title, the NFL has seen significant
a clause in Referendum 48, which resulted in $300 million in changes. Teams are using play-action passes and shotgun for-
public money being spent to build what is now known as Lu- mations more often, fielding three wide receivers on offense
men Field, dictates that the state of Washington will take 10% and nickel and dime sets on defense. Carroll is still trying to
of the gross selling price if the Seahawks are sold before May win with running backs, linebackers, and safeties while ignor-
2, 2024. It appears that Allen will be the team’s owner at least ing his slot receivers and cornerbacks.
until then and, as long as that’s the case, Carroll’s job is prob- Fifty years from now, historians will look back at the Car-
ably safe. roll regime as the apex of the Seahawks as an organization.
And nothing that happens in 2022 or beyond will change that.
“We’ve been successful for a long time, and we’re proud of Unfortunately, nothing that happens in 2022 is likely to get
that. We’re also proud that we know what we’re doing and we Seattle back to the playoffs, either.
believe in what we believe in.”
And here’s the painful part of all this: the Seahawks have Vincent Verhei

2021 Seahawks by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 at IND W 98% 28 16 381 336 0 38% 36% -4% -2% Total DVOA 12.7% 7 3.5% 21
2 TEN L 80% 30 33 397 532 1 12% 38% 20% -5% Unadjusted VOA 12.0% 8 3.7% 21
3 at MIN L 77% 17 30 389 453 0 24% 50% 24% -2% Weighted Trend 10.4% 9 -0.1% 20
4 at SF W 55% 28 21 234 457 2 15% 12% 2% 4% Variance 7.3% 15 1.7% 1
5 LAR L 57% 17 26 354 476 -1 14% 22% 15% 6% Average Opponent -2.1% 5 -0.9% 20
6 at PIT L 11% 20 23 309 345 0 -24% -13% 13% 1%
7 NO L 4% 10 13 219 304 1 -19% -14% -6% -10% Passing 25.9% 8 17.6% 26
8 JAX W 79% 31 7 229 309 1 -13% -13% 9% 9% Rushing 6.2% 6 -14.4% 8
9 BYE
First Down 8.9% 10 1.7% 16
10 at GB L 4% 0 17 208 393 -1 -17% -28% -9% 3%
Second Down 27.5% 1 13.0% 28
11 ARI L 11% 13 23 266 413 0 -10% -1% 7% -1%
Third Down -5.6% 20 -8.3% 9
12 at WAS L 66% 15 17 267 371 0 3% -8% 6% 18%
13 SF W 1% 30 23 327 365 0 -11% -31% -9% 11% First Half 24.0% 2 -1.8% 16
14 at HOU W 99% 33 13 453 380 0 19% 39% 16% -4% Second Half 1.2% 18 8.5% 25
15 at LAR L 33% 10 20 214 332 0 25% 5% -8% 11%
16 CHI L 83% 24 25 331 317 0 8% 27% 9% -10% Red Zone 17.9% 5 -4.2% 14
17 DET W 100% 51 29 497 357 3 68% 47% -13% 8% Late and Close -8.4% 26 2.0% 19
18 at ARI W 99% 38 30 431 305 -1 65% 38% -22% 4%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 9.0 8.2 366 332 +8 2.3% 15 2.2% 14 -2.1% 13 -2.0% 20 55.1 24 49.5 26 26.1 29 27.0 8 25.8 20
2018 10-6 10.1 8.7 428 347 +16 5.9% 12 9.1% 8 1.0% 17 -2.2% 24 31.5 12 31.3 14 27.2 11 25.5 27 25.8 16
2019 11-5 8.2 10.7 405 398 +12 12.7% 8 17.7% 5 4.1% 21 -0.9% 20 31.5 12 25.0 8 27.2 8 26.6 12 25.3 28
2020 12-4 10.1 11.4 459 371 +4 20.1% 5 13.7% 6 0.4% 16 6.8% 3 33.6 13 54.7 25 27.4 6 26.6 11 25.7 23
2021 7-10 9.3 9.6 395 366 +5 11.7% 9 12.7% 7 3.5% 21 2.5% 5 41.1 13 22.1 4 27.5 7 26.7 12 25.6 26
 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 231

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

SEA Offense SEA Offense vs. Opponents SEA Defense SEA Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 65% 6.0 21.9% 31% Base 22% 6.2 20.0% 59% Base 38% 5.0 -7.2% 11 59% 5.9 10.9%
12 29% 5.6 6.8% 53% Nickel 58% 5.8 14.2% 41% Nickel 52% 5.9 13.1% 12 20% 5.1 -0.2%
13 4% 5.8 -1.1% 74% Dime+ 18% 5.9 30.3% 9% Dime+ 9% 6.0 5.2% 21 7% 6.3 0.5%
21 1% 4.8 -0.5% 46% Goal Line 1% 0.0 -76.1% 100% Goal Line 1% -0.2 -44.2% 10 4% 5.6 -16.5%
13 3% 2.8 -28.2%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 40% 14 Form: Single Back 88% 6 Rush 3 7.7% 9 4 DB 38% 1 Play Action 30% 7
Runs, first down 50% 11 Form: Empty Back 10% 12 Rush 4 71.6% 12 5 DB 52% 27 Offensive Motion 32% 29
Runs, second-long 27% 19 Form: Multi Back 3% 29 Rush 5 16.5% 24 6+ DB 9% 22 Avg Box (Off) 6.27 30
Runs, power sit. 68% 6 Pers: 3+ WR 65% 16 Rush 6+ 4.3% 16 Man Coverage 15% 32 Avg Box (Def) 6.53 14
Runs, behind 2H 30% 10 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 34% 10 Edge Rusher Sacks 75.8% 2 CB by Sides 95% 1 Offensive Pace 30.18 8
Pass, ahead 2H 51% 11 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 31 Interior DL Sacks 15.2% 25 S/CB Cover Ratio 41% 1 Defensive Pace 32.69 32
Run-Pass Options 14% 12 Shotgun/Pistol 64% 16 Second Level Sacks 9.1% 28 DB Blitz 10% 18 Go for it on 4th 0.62 32

Like their division rivals in Arizona, Seattle had a strange combination of being high in run/pass ratio but near the bottom of
the league in average men the offense faced in the box. The Seahawks had 48% of their handoffs come against light boxes (six
or fewer), fourth in the NFL. Seattle had similar yards per carry against light boxes and other boxes, but higher DVOA (9.6%
vs. 0.3%) against light boxes. 🏈 The Seahawks were the best offense in the league when running on second-and-long, with
9.0 yards per carry and 55.3% DVOA compared with league averages of 4.8 yards and -16.9% DVOA. 🏈 Seattle was second
with just 13 dropped passes last season. 🏈 Seattle didn’t run a play with six offensive linemen all year. 🏈 Largely due to
Jamal Adams’ off year, the Seahawks dropped from fifth to 28th in what percentage of their sacks came from the second level,
while moving from 23rd to second in what percentage of sacks came from the edge. Seattle also sent defensive back blitzes
less than half as often, dropping from first in 2020 to 18th last season. 🏈 This was the third straight year Seattle ranked first
or second in how often they used base defense (four defensive backs) and the fourth straight year the Seahawks ranked in the
top three for “CB by Sides.” 🏈 The Seahawks had the league’s fewest broken tackles in 2020 but sunk to 26th (tied with
Houston) with 136 broken tackles in 2021. Jordyn Brooks led the team with 16 broken tackles while Quandre Diggs had 14 and
Rasheem Green 11. 🏈 Seattle led the NFL in S/CB cover ratio in part because we listed the flexible Ugo Amadi at safety
rather than cornerback. This ratio would be 30% (ninth in the NFL) instead of 41% if we listed Amadi at cornerback.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
R.Wilson* 532 7.5% 433 2847 6.6 5.3 64.8% 25 6 DK Metcalf 113 -1.8% 129 75 967 12.9 4.4 12 58%
G.Smith 54 -3.2% 107 583 5.4 5.5 69.1% 5 1 T.Lockett 308 22.8% 107 73 1175 16.1 3.8 8 68%
D.Lock -28 -15.0% 119 735 6.2 5.2 60.9% 2 2 F.Swain 64 10.1% 40 25 343 13.7 8.2 4 63%
D.Eskridge -47 -41.8% 20 10 64 6.4 3.2 1 50%
P.Hart -22 -35.9% 12 7 59 8.4 5.9 0 58%
Rushing M.Goodwin 32 -2.7% 40 20 313 15.7 4.2 1 50%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc G.Everett* 37 1.2% 63 48 478 10.0 5.2 4 76%
R.Penny 174 27.3% 119 749 6.3 6 0 47% W.Dissly 14 0.6% 26 21 231 11.0 6.8 1 81%
A.Collins* 57 3.9% 108 411 3.8 2 0 51% C.Parkinson -14 -34.6% 8 5 33 6.6 4.0 0 63%
C.Carson 53 14.2% 54 232 4.3 3 1 56% N.Fant 52 2.3% 90 68 670 9.9 4.7 4 76%
R.Wilson* -7 -15.9% 37 165 4.5 2 2 - D.Dallas -5 -17.8% 23 21 133 6.3 5.2 0 91%
D.Dallas 36 13.9% 33 138 4.2 2 0 58% T.Homer 65 42.9% 20 16 161 10.1 8.0 0 80%
T.Homer 39 36.8% 21 177 8.4 1 0 57% A.Collins* 6 -2.9% 10 9 87 9.7 10.7 0 90%
A.Peterson* -23 -46.6% 11 16 1.5 1 1 36% R.Penny -4 -24.0% 8 6 48 8.0 10.3 0 75%
F.Swain 24 55.8% 5 32 6.4 0 0 - C.Carson -6 -31.0% 6 6 29 4.8 7.0 0 100%
D.Lock -3 -17.2% 10 53 5.3 2 1 -
232 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Duane Brown* LT 37 17/17 970 5 6.0 17 5 Brandon Shell* RT 30 10/10 551 1 3.0 16 4
Gabe Jackson RG 31 16/16 923 4 0.0 10 7 Kyle Fuller C/LG 28 14/9 447 1 1.0 8 4
Damien Lewis LG 25 13/13 697 5 3.5 14 9 Jake Curhan RT 24 15/5 405 0 2.5 16 9
Ethan Pocic* C 27 13/10 601 1 2.0 4 7 Jamarco Jones* LG/RT 26 10/2 163 2 0.0 3 1

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.61 4.32 16 68% 10 18% 9 1.33 6 0.93 13 11.2% 24 48 7.9% 24 36.6% 30 13.4% 17 28
2020 4.35 4.53 10 62% 22 17% 17 1.33 6 0.58 23 11.2% 21 48 8.2% 30 30.5% 28 9.3% 4 24
2021 4.98 4.39 14 63% 23 17% 18 1.23 11 1.29 2 13.5% 28 46 8.0% 25 31.9% 32 15.7% 28 23
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.04 (21) Left Tackle: 3.95 (23) Mid/Guard: 4.65 (7) Right Tackle: 4.52 (8) Right End: 3.00 (31)

Even by Seattle standards, this was a bad line in 2021—the Seahawks finished 28th in blown block rate on both runs and
passes, an impressively consistent level of incompetence—and it may be worse still in 2022. 🏈 By rate of snaps per blown
block, veterans Duane Brown and Gabe Jackson were pretty good at left tackle and right guard, respectively, and Ethan Pocic
was mediocre at center. But Damien Lewis was fourth worst at left guard, Kyle Fuller was fourth worst at center, and Jake
Curhan and Brandon Shell were both in the bottom seven at right tackle. 🏈 Curhan, by this metric, was the worst qualified
lineman in the league. In just over 400 snaps, Curhan blew 25 blocks, nearly twice as many as the 13 Tristan Wirfs blew in over
1,000 snaps at right tackle for Tampa Bay. 🏈 Pocic joined the Browns in free agency, while the tackles remain unsigned
because of concerns about their age (Brown) and performance (Shell). 🏈 Seattle replaced Brown with Mississippi State’s
Charles Cross, who is 17 years younger. Cross started 10 games for the Bulldogs as a redshirt freshman in 2020, making the
SEC’s all-freshman team, then was first-team all-conference as a sophomore before declaring for the draft. Scouts praised his
size and power for dealing with rushers who came right at him but had concerns about how he would fare in space. 🏈 In
minicamp, right tackle was a three-way battle between Curhan, 2021 sixth-rounder Stone Forsythe, and third-round rookie
Abraham Lucas. Forsythe came into the league skinny (only 307 pounds at 6-foot-8 at the combine) and played only 10 of-
fensive snaps as a rookie. Lucas, a four-year starter at Washington State, earned all-conference honors in 2021. Yes, it’s more
than a little ironic that Pete Carroll, who wants to run the ball as often as possible, drafted a pair of tackles who played in Mike
Leach’s Air Raid offense in college. 🏈 New at center is Austin Blythe, who missed only one start for the Rams from 2018
to 2020. L.A. opted to let him walk in free agency, then won the Super Bowl; Blythe signed a one-year deal with Kansas City,
but he underwent sports hernia surgery in August, lost his job to rookie Creed Humphrey, and played only 18 snaps all season.
His blocking numbers in Los Angeles were consistently worse than Pocic’s were in Seattle.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Poona Ford 27 DT 17 802 54 5.4% 51 36 12 3 40 75% 26 1.6 8 2.0 3 19 1
Al Woods 35 DT 16 619 53 5.7% 44 38 9 3 46 72% 41 1.8 13 1.5 4 8 2
Bryan Mone 27 DT 14 396 36 4.4% -- 30 6 4 33 82% -- 2.6 -- 1.5 1 5 0
Robert Nkemdiche* 28 DT 9 230 16 3.0% -- 9 0 3 15 53% -- 2.8 -- 0.0 1 3 1
Quinton Jefferson 29 DT 17 686 48 5.4% 55 33 14 4 39 64% 72 3.3 84 4.5 11 25 0
Shelby Harris 31 DE 16 566 51 6.5% 26 31 19 5 42 52% 95 3.7 94 6.0 5 18 2

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Rasheem Green* 25 DE 17 846 52 5.2% 49 35 16 11 36 61% 81 3.0 70 6.5 8 20 4
Darrell Taylor 25 OLB 16 543 33 3.5% 80 26 13 8 20 80% 15 1.7 14 6.5 7 22 1
Benson Mayowa* 31 DE 15 509 30 3.4% 83 17 6 6 22 68% 65 2.2 29 1.0 1 9 0
Kerry Hyder* 31 DE 15 506 33 3.8% 76 18 8 1 27 56% 88 2.7 58 1.5 9 16 0
Carlos Dunlap* 33 DE 17 481 42 4.2% -- 27 17 2 21 52% -- 3.7 -- 8.5 6 20 7
Alton Robinson 24 OLB 16 371 23 2.5% -- 15 9 5 20 65% -- 1.3 -- 1.0 2 12 1
L.J. Collier 27 DE 10 218 9 1.5% -- 6 3 1 7 57% -- 2.6 -- 0.0 5 6 1
Uchenna Nwosu 26 OLB 17 782 44 5.0% 54 33 16 8 31 68% 68 2.0 22 5.0 18 30 3
 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 233
Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass
Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Bobby Wagner* 32 MLB 16 1128 175 18.7% 7 75 21 9 102 50% 62 3.8 41 1.0 2 7 47 47% 43 6.1 34 5 1
Jordyn Brooks 25 OLB 17 1107 188 18.9% 6 80 23 16 97 55% 54 3.7 34 1.0 3 7 51 39% 62 8.8 69 5 0
Cody Barton 26 MLB 16 189 26 2.8% -- 14 3 4 15 60% -- 3.5 -- 0.0 2 3 12 58% -- 6.7 -- 1 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.28 4.36 21 67% 22 20% 12 1.21 20 0.82 21 11.7% 22 28 5.1% 30 24.0% 32 10.5% 31
2020 3.91 4.20 12 63% 9 19% 10 1.06 6 0.59 9 14.3% 9 46 6.6% 16 23.9% 22 11.1% 26
2021 3.72 4.02 8 57% 3 18% 13 0.98 3 0.46 7 16.2% 8 34 5.3% 29 23.7% 23 13.2% 21
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.94 (25) Left Tackle: 3.73 (8) Mid/Guard: 3.93 (10) Right Tackle: 3.59 (6) Right End: 4.80 (22)

If the Seahawks are going to beat our projections and return to the playoffs in 2022, this unit will likely be the reason why. Se-
attle has quickly rebuilt the second level of its defense with a quartet of young, highly drafted players. There are question marks
here, but there is also upside, which is more than you can say for most of the roster. 🏈 Jordyn Brooks, a 2020 first-rounder,
led the Seahawks with 10 tackles for loss and led the NFL with 109 solo tackles. He struggled in coverage—Washington’s Cole
Holcomb was the only linebacker to give up more total yards when targeted—but he also finished 14th among linebackers in
defeats. 🏈 The release of Bobby Wagner cleared the way for Cody Barton to join Brooks in the starting lineup. Barton, a
2019 third-rounder, has only started five games in the regular season plus two more in the playoffs. He’s on the small side at
237 pounds, but powerful and quick, finishing second in the bench press and first in the short shuttle among linebackers at the
2019 combine. Barton played safety in high school and will hopefully fix some of the problems Seattle had covering running
backs. 🏈 Darrell Taylor, a 2020 second-rounder out of Tennessee, finally saw the field after missing his entire rookie year
because of leg surgery. He had 4.0 sacks while coming off the bench in his first five games but wasn’t so productive when he
was starting and playing more than 50% of snaps down the stretch. 🏈 The Chargers selected Uchenna Nwosu in the second
round of the 2018 draft out of USC. At the time, scouts loved his explosive burst and hard-hitting style but worried about how
the 250-pounder would hold up against larger tackles. He only played about one-third of the snaps in his first three seasons
before moving into L.A.’s starting lineup in 2021. Nwosu specializes in getting his hands on the ball—he actually had more
passes defensed than sacks with the Trojans, and had eight passes defensed to go with 15 sacks in four years in L.A. Only 43
NFL players matched those numbers, and 41 of them started more games than Nwosu’s 25. 🏈 Boye Mafe, a second-round
rookie out of Minnesota, should also see time on the outside. Mafe had mediocre production in college, with 7.0 sacks in 12
games in 2021, but he fared well at the combine, ranking among the top four defensive ends/edge rushers in the 40-yard dash,
vertical jump, and broad jump despite weighing 261 pounds. 🏈 For all the turnover at linebacker, the interior line looks
much more stable. The top three linemen from last year—Poona Ford, Al Woods, and Bryan Mone—all return. Quinton Jef-
ferson also returns; he was drafted by Seattle in 2016 and played his first four years there before spending 2020 in Buffalo and
2021 in Las Vegas. 🏈 The exciting new name here is Shelby Harris, whom the Seahawks hope can be a (very) poor man’s
version of Aaron Donald as an undersized, penetrating 3-4 end. He probably won’t hit 19 defeats in a season again, but he had
14 in 2020 (in only 11 games) and 12 in 2019, so it wasn’t a total fluke.

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Quandre Diggs 29 FS 17 1228 101 10.1% 44 21 10 14 42 19% 69 8.4 56 23 5.4% 66 17.3 65% 11 5.6 13 7 5
D.J. Reed* 26 CB 14 1000 88 10.7% 14 32 13 8 29 31% 59 6.4 43 71 20.6% 35 12.2 62% 12 5.9 18 10 2
Jamal Adams 27 SS 12 872 92 13.1% 12 47 19 8 51 61% 4 3.9 3 35 11.7% 13 6.7 63% 16 4.6 7 5 2
Sidney Jones 26 CB 16 728 76 8.1% 49 31 12 5 12 50% 22 3.8 9 52 20.7% 33 11.7 63% 9 5.7 16 10 0
Ugochukwu Amadi 25 SS 17 691 57 5.7% 74 19 8 8 10 50% 13 6.1 25 30 12.6% 9 10.1 37% 71 9.4 59 6 1
Ryan Neal 27 SS 16 433 49 5.2% -- 24 12 8 26 62% -- 6.1 -- 16 10.7% -- 8.8 50% -- 10.6 -- 3 0
Tre Brown 25 CB 5 255 11 3.8% -- 4 2 2 0 0% -- 0.0 -- 15 17.1% -- 16.6 67% -- 4.8 -- 1 0
Justin Coleman 29 CB 16 371 30 3.7% -- 10 5 5 4 75% -- 5.0 -- 29 20.9% -- 12.1 45% -- 8.4 -- 3 2
Artie Burns 27 CB 11 254 28 5.2% -- 15 5 1 11 55% -- 4.7 -- 20 23.9% -- 13.6 60% -- 6.9 -- 6 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 15 -2.9% 12 -5.6% 10 -9.6% 11 -27.8% 5 5.9% 16 3.3% 17 -9.4% 10
2020 20 9.5% 21 -8.9% 12 14.3% 25 4.2% 19 6.9% 23 -7.6% 11 15.8% 28
2021 26 -7.5% 12 -9.9% 12 -6.0% 10 -15.3% 7 -1.5% 11 18.4% 26 42.7% 32
234 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks may not decide on a starting lineup here until after opening day. They didn’t last year—Ahkello Witherspoon
and Tre Flowers were battling for starting spots in training camp but were out of Seattle by mid-October and ended up in the
postseason with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, respectively. D.J. Reed and Sidney Jones won starting jobs by default, and now
Reed is gone, having signed with the Jets in free agency. 🏈 Jones set a career high with 11 starts last year. A second-round
pick in 2017, he started only eight games in three years in Philadelphia, though he did start each of his last six games for Jack-
sonville in 2020. In case you were wondering about the consistency of cornerback charting stats, Jones went from 6.3 yards
allowed per pass in 2019 to 10.6 in 2020 to just 5.7 yards last season. 🏈 Free-agent signee Artie Burns is penciled in to fill
Reed’s spot. Burns started 16 games for the Steelers in 2017, then was benched early in 2018 and spent most of the next two
years banished to special teams. He missed all of 2020 after tearing his ACL, then opened 2021 as a special teamer in Chicago
before starting six of their last seven games, finishing with respectable coverage stats. 🏈 Justin Coleman is a journeyman,
spending two years in New England, two in Seattle, two in Detroit, one in Miami, and now back in Seattle. He’ll battle Ugo
Amadi for slot corner duties. Amadi is still listed as a safety on the roster, but he has been Seattle’s primary nickelback the last
two seasons. His charting stats were good in 2020 and rotten in 2021, but he only saw 30-some targets each year. 🏈 Tre
Brown, a fourth-round draftee out of Oklahoma, missed the start of his rookie year with a sprained knee and the end with a
different knee injury. Brown is undersized at 5-foot-10 and 188 pounds but surprisingly effective in press coverage; he’ll con-
tend for the outside spots but may be better suited for the slot. 🏈 Finally, we have a pair of Day 3 rookies who might see
significant action: Coby Bryant (fourth round, Cincinnati) and Tariq Woolen (fifth round, Texas-San Antonio). Bryant, the Jim
Thorpe award winner as college football’s best defensive back in 2021, has been tabbed as a possible starter because he shined
at minicamp, and because his competition is so weak. Woolen spent most of minicamp nursing a hamstring injury, but he’s
tall (6-foot-4), fast (4.26s 40-yard dash), and green, switching from wide receiver to defensive back in 2019. 🏈 At least
we know who the safeties will be, though they both have health issues. Quandre Diggs suffered a broken leg and dislocated
ankle in the season finale. He hit free agency but signed a three-year, $40-million deal to stay in Seattle. He is expected to be
ready for training camp. 🏈 Jamal Adams has missed time with shoulder, finger, and groin injuries in his two seasons in the
Northwest. He says he “played with one arm damn near for two years” and had shoulder and finger surgery this offseason in
hopes of playing more, and better, in 2022.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -1.0% 20 -0.1 18 -0.9 20 -2.1 22 -1.2 20 -0.5 15 4.9 10
2020 6.8% 3 14.0 2 6.3 5 1.2 10 13.9 3 -1.3 19 -1.6 17
2021 2.5% 5 -5.7 25 6.4 3 2.7 9 7.5 3 2.2 9 4.7 10

Michael Dickson has an argument for being Seattle’s best player after finishing in the top four in both gross and net punt value
for the second straight year. His actual gross average (46.9 yards per punt, 12th in the NFL) is turfed because the Seahawks
punted 21 times from midfield or deeper, four more than any other team. That partly explains why Dickson led the NFL with 40
punts downed inside the 20, but also with 10 touchbacks. 🏈 Kickers are erratic, Exhibit No. 9,375: Jason Myers didn’t miss
a single field goal in 2020, but he missed six in 2021. That includes misses from 44 and 53 yards in a 13-10 loss to New Orleans
and one from 39 in a 25-24 loss to Chicago. He also missed three extra points, including one against Tennessee that helped the
Titans force overtime, where they went on to win. 🏈 Myers’ raw numbers on kickoffs were poor—only Jacksonville had a
lower rate of touchbacks than Seattle—but that’s partly by design. The Seahawks didn’t kick off all that often, but Myers’ short
kicks allowed the Seahawks’ outstanding coverage team to tackle opposing returners inside the 20 a league-high 16 times. 🏈
The Seahawks ranked first in kickoff coverage (preventing opposition returns) and 10th in punt coverage. Cody Barton made
the top five in tackles on kickoffs, while Nick Bellore, Penny Hart, and Jon Rhattigan were all in the top 20 in tackles on punts.
🏈 In the return game, Seattle got solid if unspectacular results from DeeJay Dallas (who averaged 23.2 yards on kickoff
returns) and Freddie Swain (8.6 yards on punts).
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 record: 13-4 Total DVOA: 27.6% (3) 2022 Mean Projection: 10.0 wins On the Clock (0-5): 5%
Pythagorean Wins: 12.2 (4) Offense: 26.7% (1) Postseason Odds: 68.2% Mediocrity (6-8): 22%
Snap-Weighted Age: 27.6 (1) Defense: -3.3% (9) Super Bowl Odds: 14.9% Playoff Contender (9-11): 44%
Average Opponent: -3.6% (31) Special Teams: -2.4% (27) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.2% (19) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 30%

2021: Can anyone in the crowd play wide receiver?

2022: ”I’m Back.”

F orty days.
For 40 days, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were stuck
wandering the desert. After falling short in their comeback at-
The Ageless One on one more final ride. Thus, the Buccaneers
reclaimed their rightful place among the favorites to represent
the NFC in Super Bowl LVII.
tempt against the Rams in the divisional round, they were hit Well, they almost all came back. Bruce Arians stepped
with the news that effectively ended this version of the team: down at the end of March to become a consultant for the team,
Tom Brady was retiring. with defensive coordinator Todd Bowles named his successor.
The decision was not wholly unexpected. While Brady re- Again, nothing odd about a 69-year-old with nothing left to
mained one of the top quarterbacks in the league, he was 44 prove stepping into a less strenuous role, but the timing got
years old and well past reasonable retirement age for an elite thrown off by Brady’s decision. Arians said that Brady return-
athlete. He has more Super Bowl rings than any other human ing was the reason he ended up stepping aside—not due to the
not named Bill Belichick and a trophy case overflowing with reported friction between the coach and quarterback, which
awards and honors. He could retire to Canton, to Giselle, to always seemed to be blown out of proportion, but because it
an eternity of celebrity golf and the wild world of being able meant he wasn’t setting Bowles up for failure by forcing him
to stay up later than 8:30 or eat a tomato. He had absolutely to helm a rebuild right off the bat. This desire to help his co-
nothing more to prove. ordinators out likely also explains why Bowles got tabbed for
In the world where Brady stayed at home, we’d be talking the top spot rather than offensive coordinator and hot coach-
about all the free agents who drifted away with Brady no longer ing prospect Byron Leftwich; Leftwich will presumably be in
at the center of the universe. We’d be discussing the dubious the coaching carousel again next season as the market for hot-
claim made by Bruce Arians that Blaine Gabbert was the most shot young offensive minds is hotter than the one for retread
underrated player in the NFL, and debating whether Kyle Trask defensive experts.
was ready to step in. We’d be talking about rebuilding. Bowles is an interesting candidate for a second head coach-
But something always seemed a bit off. Brady had initially ing gig. His record as a defensive coordinator is above reproach,
refuted the reports of his retirement before going through with with top-10 DVOA finishes in all five seasons he has been in
it. When he finally released a statement, he neglected to men- charge. He’s beloved by his players, and he has shown strengths
tion the Patriots, sparking rumors that this was a ploy to be in personnel management and handling personalities and the
an owner/player in Miami, or to get out from a deteriorating other non-Xs-and-Os responsibilities that come with coaching
relationship with Arians. These rumors burst into flame when a team. His 24-40 record in New York was terrible, but you can
Brady told Jim Gray to “never say never” about the possibility question how much of that was Bowles himself and how much
of coming back. After all, Brady may well be the world’s most of that was Mike Maccagnan and the rest of the Jets front of-
competitive human being; he was really going to walk away a fice failing to get him the players he needed to succeed. At the
loser when Peyton Manning and John Elway got to leave the bare minimum, Bowles and Maccagnan were not on the same
field as champions? page, with contemporary reports hinting at turf wars and argu-
Brady will keep the truth of what happened in those 40 days ments about decisions made in a scheme where neither man
to himself, at least until he can figure out a way to monetize was clearly in charge. (Reportedly, one of the reasons Chris-
it for 199 Productions. Whatever the truth, Brady survived tian Hackenberg received zero snaps in the NFL was because
his 40 days of trials and tribulations and returned to lead his Bowles was never on board with the pick and wanted to punish
people one more time. And lo, did his followers flock back to Maccagnan for making it in the first place.) Bowles’ sole suc-
him—back came Ryan Jensen, and Carlton Davis, and Chris cessful season as a head coach was in 2015, the only time the
Godwin, and Leonard Fournette, and Will Gholston and Bre- Jets have been in the top 20 in DVOA since 2010. It was the
shad Perriman and Josh Wells and Blaine Gabbert and Gio first year of the Bowles-Maccagnan partnership, with a roster
Bernard. In came Russell Gage and Logan Ryan and Keanu still mostly stacked with John Idzik’s players.
Neal, free agents who may not have given the Brady-less Bucs That sort of organizational spite won’t exist in Tampa Bay,
the time of day. They all came back, ready and eager to join where Bowles, Arians, and Jason Licht are all on the same
235
236 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

2021 TB DVOA by Week

2022 Buccaneers Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 at DAL 7 at CAR 13 NO (Mon.)
2 at NO 8 BAL (Thu.) 14 at SF 40%
3 GB 9 LAR 15 CIN 20%
4 KC 10 SEA (Ger.) 16 at ARI (Xmas)
0%
5 ATL 11 BYE 17 CAR
6 at PIT 12 at CLE 18 at ATL -20%

-40%

-60%

page with how the roster is constructed. And Bowles won’t -80%

have to deal with the pain of working with a Sam Darnold or -100%

Josh McCown, or trying to squeeze the most out of a talent-

deficient defense. He’s in a much better position to succeed
than he ever was in New York. That doesn’t guarantee he will
succeed, of course, but Bowles wasn’t an out-and-out failure Byron Leftwich’s show. Leftwich has done an exceptional
with the Jets, someone so clearly bad at his job that his over- job to this point of combining Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit”
promotion was immediately self-evident. Considering how approach with Brady’s more comfortable control of the short
much his former players, even from the Jets, still go to bat for and intermediate passing games. Arians took a hands-off ap-
him, giving Bowles a second shot makes more sense than a lot proach to week-to-week planning, just chipping in some big-
of other potential retread candidates. picture ideas early in the week; it’s Leftwich who has been
And, in all honesty, we likely won’t learn much about doing nearly all of the heavy lifting and should get most of the
Bowles’ coaching acumen in 2022. He’s being handed the credit for Tampa Bay’s run of success.
keys to a Ferrari and being asked not to scratch the paint. Any But Bowles has also made it clear that the buck will stop
success in the short term is going to be more due to having a with him when it comes to decisions on things such as play
future Hall of Fame quarterback running a proven successful calling on third-and-short and when to go for it in two-minute
offense than anything Bowles brings to the table. George Seif- situations and the like. That’s one area where the Buccaneers
ert, Jon Gruden, and Bill Callahan all reached the Super Bowl could stand to see some improvement as Tampa Bay ranked
the year after they were handed the keys to a team at the top 30th in EdjSports’ critical call index, losing roughly -0.65 win
of its game. Seifert eventually shaped the 49ers into his own probability on incorrect fourth-down calls. Despite having the
image and won a Super Bowl on his own merits. Gruden pre- best offense in the league, Arians ranked 22nd in Aggressive-
sided over a slow decay from Tony Dungy’s peak. Callahan ness Index in 2021. Arians’ aggressiveness was about push-
had the locker room in mutiny against him within 18 months ing the ball down the field; he was conservative as anyone
of taking over. Only time will tell which category Bowles will when it came to using all four downs to move the football.
eventually fall into. And Bowles is not exactly the prime candidate to change that;
For now, this is Tom Brady’s team, and like all Tom Brady he ranked 106th out of 131 head coaches from 1983 to 2020
teams for the past two decades, they’re top contenders. Tampa in Aggressiveness Index. The Buccaneers should be leaning
Bay comes out with our top offensive projection. This of course, more into their offensive strengths, but there’s a real chance
is nothing new for Brady; his offenses have been projected in Bowles just continues or deepens their fourth-down phobia.
the top five in every year but two since we started doing DVOA Leftwich says that he shares Arians’ offensive philosophy
projections in 2004, even if they haven’t claimed the top projec- and that everything should be status quo. Bowles has directly
tion since 2012. Every year is different and presents new chal- said that he didn’t get the job to be an offensive coach and is not
lenges for even the most talented teams to work through, but planning on tinkering with the offense too much. This hasn’t
“Tom Brady will see us through” has been a working strategy stopped some beat reporters from insisting change is in the air,
longer than Football Outsiders has been analyzing the league. with the Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud saying that Bowles
That being said, this offseason has posed more than its fair will bring with him a commitment to running the ball more.
share of questions for Brady and the Bucs to answer. These Stroud pointed to Leonard Fournette’s new contract and third-
aren’t likely to be the difference between making the playoffs round pick Rachaad White as supporting evidence. Bowles’
and staying home; the division is weak enough that Tampa Jets teams were 27th in early-down pass frequency as well, so
Bay could likely sleepwalk its way through three months and there’s some history there. That would be a significant change
still end up with a home game in January. Rather, answering for Tampa Bay as only the Chiefs and Bills have thrown more
these questions will go a long way to determining whether or on early downs than the Buccaneers have since Brady arrived
not the Bucs are the Super Bowl favorites or just among the in 2020. The Bucs were very good at running the ball last year,
Super Bowl favorites. fifth with a 6.9% DVOA, but they led the league in passing;
First of all, what will the offense look like now that Ari- the entire offense has been about throwing the ball and moving
ans isn’t on the sideline? Bowles is saying that it’s now fully quickly, not grinding down teams with a rushing attack. In fact,
 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 237

the closest thing the Bucs had to a weakness on offense for most ing that Brady’s passing DVOA actually went up during the
of last year was running on second down, where they ranked two months Gronk was out with an injury. Again, “Tom Brady
14th with a -0.2% DVOA. There’s nothing wrong with want- will see us through” coming to the rescue.
ing to be more effective when running the ball, but no one was The interior line is also a potential area for concern for the
watching the Buccaneers’ offense last season wishing they were Bucs’ offense. When Brady retired, it looked like the Bucs
establishing the run. The Tampa Bay offense isn’t really one in would lose all three of their interior linemen from last sea-
need of tweaking. It sounds like Bowles won’t give into defen- son, with Ali Marpet retiring and both Ryan Jensen and Alex
sive coordinatoritis, up the team’s conservatism, and hamstring Cappa hitting free agency. Jensen ended up re-signing on the
the good thing that Leftwich and Arians had going. very same day Brady announced his return (Brady will see us
Then again, maybe those reporters are just concerned about through!), and the Buccaneers arguably upgraded over Cappa
the state of the receiver room. At least part of the divisional by trading for Shaq Mason—Cappa is young and coming off
playoff loss can be chalked up to Scotty Miller and Tyler John- a career year, but Mason has the better career blown block
son being forced into starting roles against the Rams. The two rate, was ninth among guards in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate,
are very solid complimentary receivers, but they were thrust and generally grades out very high as a run blocker too. That
into the spotlight due to Chris Godwin’s ACL tear and Anto- does leave Marpet’s replacement up in the air, with a battle
nio Brown’s Antonio Brownness. The Buccaneers handled it between second-round pick Luke Goedeke and Super Bowl
better than most teams in similar situations would have, but starter Aaron Stinnie in the cards. Stinnie has played very well
Brady probably goes better than 12-for-26 for 66 yards inside in relief, which likely gives him the edge while Goedeke de-
the Rams’ 40 if he has his guys out there catching passes. velops, but the Buccaneers have a couple of solid options to
Godwin returning will obviously be a significant boost when replace their retired Pro Bowler on the line.
he’s back to full speed, but the timing of that is very much un- And then there’s Tom Brady, who … you know what,
determined. Because Godwin tore his ACL so late in the year, you’ve read this next paragraph before. Every year, for eight
there’s a serious chance of he will miss significant portions of years plus. Football Outsiders Almanac 2014’s Patriots chap-
the season. Typically, ACL injuries like Godwin’s take nine ter spent a long time talking about how teams handled “the
to 12 months to heal, and there have been some whispers that final years of a once-in-a-generation quarterbacking talent.”
Godwin might not see the field until after Thanksgiving in the In 2016 we asked if Brady was “really facing the beginning
worst-case scenario. With Godwin out, Brown long gone, and of the end.” In 2017, we pondered the case of Jimmy Garop-
Rob Gronkowski deciding to retire right as we were going to polo and suggested that the Patriots were “letting Brady …
press (thanks, Gronk), the Buccaneers are missing 300 of their have one more season before he either calls it a career or the
578 wide receiver or tight end targets from 2021. Mike Evans Patriots enter the Jimmy G Era.” Complaints that the Patriots
is great, but he can’t be a whole passing offense by himself. didn’t have a back-up plan for the post-Brady future took up
Tampa Bay has declared open season on the slots behind the whole first page of the 2018 Patriots chapter, while the
Evans and Godwin with no clear favorite as to who the third very first sentence in 2019 was “Tom Brady is getting old” as
receiver will be. But Brady went out and specifically called we talked about the beginning of his age-related decline. Two
Russell Gage to get him to join the team, which is a fairly years ago, the Buccaneers chapter asked how much longer
good indicator that he’ll be the first guy up. Gage is vastly Brady could be Brady, and we warned last year that one of the
overqualified as a third receiver; he’s an excellent route-runner few things that could derail a Tampa Bay repeat run would be
who consistently finds a way to get open in the intermediate a sudden decline from Brady.
areas of the field. Gage’s most common routes in Atlanta were Brady is the last active player to pre-date the founding of
slants, curls, and outs—those were 40% of his targets, with an Football Outsiders in 2003. He’s gradually knocking out ev-
average target depth of 6.4 yards. We expect that aDOT to go ery age-related record in the NFL history books one after an-
up in Tampa Bay’s more vertical offense, but he’ll likely still other. It is inherently dangerous to build your team around a
be the guy catching the shortest passes when everyone’s up to 45-year-old quarterback. Eventually, age will win and Brady
full speed, with Godwin’s depth of target going back to double will be unable to effectively play football anymore. It may hap-
digits as it was before Brown came along. pen when he’s 96 years old and has been legally dead for six
Replacing both Gronkowski and O.J. Howard is a bit months, but it will happen. If Brady’s arm goes, the Bucs are
tougher, as there’s no experienced depth behind Cameron sunk, and there’s just nothing to be done about it. Can it hap-
Brate. Brate is consistent, but not explosive, and his immedi- pen without real warning? Yes. Is there any, and I mean, any,
ate backups are a pair of Day 3 draft picks unlikely to blow reason to believe it’s more likely to happen this year than last,
anyone’s doors off in year one. There’s really not a way to or than next? No. But it’s the one thing the Buccaneers can’t
directly replace Gronkowski’s production; he was one of six account for. Kinks in the play calling and offensive design can
tight ends to have over 100 DYAR on passes more than 10 be worked out as the season goes along, like they were during
yards down the field and is still a high-quality blocker when the 2020 Super Bowl run. Backup receivers and linemen can
healthy. Perhaps Cade Otton will develop faster than expect- step up, or trades can be made, or street free agents signed to
ed, or perhaps the Buccaneers would adjust by using more patch up depth. Brady’s unretirement makes the Buccaneers
11 personnel once Godwin is healthy. The Buccaneers will contenders; Blaine Gabbert or Kyle Trask having to step in for
have to adjust to life without Gronkowski, but it’s worth not- any significant period of time would knock them right out of
238 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

the picture once more. value and could still be brought back; he shouldn’t be an ev-
Most of these offensive concerns have in-house answers, ery-down player anymore but could still be a valuable part of
and backup plans in case Plan A fails. The defense, on the a rotation. Moving on from both is more valuable to the Bucs
other hand, is more concerning. in the long term, however. The Bucs had the fourth-oldest de-
The Tampa Bay defense did hit the top 10 in DVOA last fense in the league last season with a snap-weighted age of
season, but it was a bumpy ride to get there. A depleted sec- 27.1. Because Tampa Bay has been built for the short term of
ondary helped drop the Buccaneers as low as 19th in pass Brady’s contract, that hasn’t been a huge deal, but replacing
defense DVOA at one point before recovering late in the sea- moderately effective thirtysomethings with younger players
son—and it was that pass defense that the Rams shredded in should help the Bucs more down the line.
the divisional playoffs. The Rams especially targeted Sean The question is whether the combination of this year’s top
Murphy-Bunting repeatedly as he struggled significantly even pick, Logan Hall, and last year’s first-round pick, Joe Tryon-
after returning from his elbow injury. Shoyinka, can produce at least as well as Suh and JPP in the
Murphy-Bunting played a surprisingly important part in short term. Tryon-Shoyinka didn’t quite match his preseason
Tampa Bay’s defensive strategy last season. Bowles’ ideal de- hype but did manage a very solid 13.2% pressure rate as a
fense is very multiple in the secondary, mixing up single-high rotational pass-rusher. He just struggled to turn that pressure
and two-high coverage to confuse offenses, and then bringing into sacks, something that can likely be cleaned up as he gets
blitzes and pressure to pop them in the mouth. But when Mur- more experience. Hall is an interesting fit in Bowles’ defense
phy-Bunting went down in Week 1, the Buccaneers got a lot next to Vita Vea and should be a solid contributor right off the
more predictable in the defensive backfield. They started drop- bat as a run-stopping 5-technique. As a pass-rusher, though,
ping both Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead significantly he’s a bit of a longer-term project, especially as he adjusts
more often; they started having corners play by side rather than to a new position; he’s likely too small to be an every-down
matching up with individual receivers; they stopped blitzing as 3-technique in the pros. The potential is there for the young
much. This was to help their depleted secondary, but the end re- guns to at least match the lessened production of the 2021
sult is that they weren’t running the defense they were designed versions of Suh and Pierre-Paul, but expecting them to match
to run for a good half of the year. The injury to Carlton Davis what the 2020 defense was able to do is too much at this point
obviously didn’t help matters, but it seems like the slot defense in time.
was Bolles’ key; the Bucs’ coverage schemes reverted to nor- But as long as the defense isn’t actively dragging the Bucca-
mal when Murphy-Bunting returned in Week 11, two weeks neers down, they will be fine. And with Lavonte David, Shaq
before Davis came back. The Buccaneers went from 10.2% de- Barrett, and Vita Vea up front, there’s a decently high floor to
fensive DVOA against slot receivers with a 71% catch rate to how bad Tampa Bay’s defense could possibly be. Our mean
-14.8% defensive DVOA with a 61% catch rate from Week 11 projection has this as a slightly below-average defense, but
onwards. Even with Murphy-Bunting not at full strength, the not to the point where it’s an anchor that kills their playoff
Buccaneers looked significantly better defensively when they chances. It’s not good enough to win because of, but it’s good
were doing what they were designed to do. enough to win with.
With all the struggles Tampa Bay had with depth last sea- There’s no denying how strange this offseason was, and
son, it’s surprising they didn’t do more to try to add talent to yet it ends up with the Buccaneers back in a familiar place:
the position in the draft—fifth-round pick Zyon McCollum is heavy favorites in the division. There will undoubtably be
not a fix. Davis’ return is huge, but that’s just not losing a key some bumps and growing pains as Bowles takes over as head
player rather than adding anything. Jamel Dean has yet to play coach, the receiver room shakes itself out, and the defensive
a full season, and Murphy-Bunting has yet to play a fully con- replacements try to find their spots. But Tampa Bay is in a sit-
sistent one. The Bucs also let Jordan Whitehead walk, replac- uation where the regular season is more or less a shakedown
ing him with veterans Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal. Neither is cruise—a chance to work out the kinks before the real season
a one-for-one replacement for Whitehead, who is a traditional begins. Even though our projections put the Saints higher than
strong safety. Ryan’s a converted corner and might be better in conventional wisdom, it would be a true shock for the Buc-
a slot role, while Neal has been bouncing around from safety caneers not to win the division outright. Come playoff time,
to linebacker. It’s hard to say that Tampa Bay’s secondary is the offense should be kicking into full gear, and Tampa Bay’s
better than it was last year, though improved health should path to giving Brady his record-tying eighth Super Bowl ring
lead to better results. should be clear.
The Buccaneers also find themselves having to replace both And then we’ll get to spend another offseason playing the
Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul in the front seven, but will-he, won’t-he game with Brady. Maybe this will finally be
that may end up being addition by subtraction. While their the last ride. Or maybe he’ll tell FOX just where they can stick
leadership and experience in the system were valuable, both the massive analyst deal they have waiting for him when his
are well over 30 and saw their play sharply drop off last sea- playing career ends. At this point, counting the NFL’s Methu-
son. Pierre-Paul’s 22 pressures and 6.5% pressure rate were selah out of anything is foolish as foolish can be.
both career lows, while Suh’s 70% run stop rate was the worst
since he arrived in Tampa Bay. Of the two, Suh still has more Bryan Knowles
 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 239

2021 Buccaneers by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 DAL W 81% 31 29 431 451 -3 49% 44% 8% 12% Total DVOA 26.7% 1 -3.3% 9
2 ATL W 100% 48 25 341 348 2 39% 19% -24% -3% Unadjusted VOA 23.9% 1 -10.1% 5
3 at LAR L 11% 24 34 446 407 0 2% 36% 24% -10% Weighted Trend 24.2% 1 -4.5% 12
4 at NE W 43% 19 17 381 294 2 18% 28% -5% -15% Variance 5.5% 9 3.1% 4
5 MIA W 100% 45 17 558 301 2 67% 72% 5% 0% Average Opponent -2.6% 2 -6.5% 32
6 at PHI W 97% 28 22 399 213 0 33% 32% 3% 4%
7 CHI W 100% 38 3 408 311 4 36% 13% -27% -4% Passing 43.9% 1 1.0% 10
8 at NO L 79% 27 36 421 361 -3 20% 18% -2% -1% Rushing 6.9% 5 -11.8% 12
9 BYE
First Down 20.3% 2 -8.9% 7
10 at WAS L 17% 19 29 273 320 -1 -26% -17% 9% 0%
Second Down 23.9% 3 -0.5% 16
11 NYG W 100% 30 10 402 215 2 58% 29% -25% 5%
Third Down 45.0% 1 2.8% 21
12 at IND W 80% 38 31 359 392 3 23% 28% -6% -12%
13 at ATL W 98% 30 17 425 380 0 10% 13% 3% 0% First Half 26.9% 1 2.5% 20
14 BUF W 82% 33 27 488 466 1 52% 55% 0% -3% Second Half 26.4% 1 -9.1% 6
15 NO L 16% 0 9 302 212 -2 -2% -18% -32% -16%
16 at CAR W 100% 32 6 391 273 1 51% 20% -24% 6% Red Zone 34.7% 1 6.5% 25
17 at NYJ W 48% 28 24 467 374 0 -14% 15% 28% -1% Late and Close 36.7% 2 -0.5% 14
18 CAR W 100% 41 17 409 317 2 53% 57% 2% -2%
19 PHI W 99% 31 15 349 339 3 47% 9% -30% 7%
20 LAR L 2% 27 30 359 428 2 -17% 7% 3% -21%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 5-11 6.7 6.0 335 382 -1 -12.4% 23 5.2% 11 12.0% 32 -5.5% 29 25.4 9 55.3 27 26.2 27 27.0 7 25.9 12
2018 5-11 6.4 5.4 396 464 -18 -14.4% 25 5.9% 12 16.2% 32 -4.1% 28 14.3 3 91.4 32 26.3 22 26.5 12 25.6 22
2019 7-9 8.2 6.9 458 449 -13 0.3% 14 -7.4% 23 -10.5% 6 -2.8% 27 17.0 6 22.5 4 26.2 25 25.6 24 25.5 22
2020 11-5 11.2 12.8 492 355 +8 31.5% 2 19.8% 3 -14.6% 5 -2.9% 26 12.4 1 18.2 2 27.7 3 26.3 17 26.1 14
2021 13-4 12.2 13.3 511 353 +10 27.6% 3 26.7% 1 -3.3% 9 -2.4% 27 34.4 9 46.9 22 28.5 1 27.1 4 26.4 9

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

TB Offense TB Offense vs. Opponents TB Defense TB Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 68% 6.8 42.9% 26% Base 13% 5.5 23.8% 55% Base 29% 5.0 0.0% 11 58% 5.6 3.8%
12 18% 5.0 -2.7% 41% Nickel 72% 6.3 29.9% 33% Nickel 68% 5.5 -4.4% 12 21% 5.3 -12.3%
13 2% 6.7 39.9% 28% Goal Line 0% 0.0 -131.4% 0% Goal Line 1% 0.4 13.6% 22 3% 4.8 20.7%
612 2% 5.2 22.4% 63% Big 1% 6.8 -38.6% 13 2% 7.2 19.3%
10 2% 3.8 -59.1% 0% 611 2% 6.1 -6.6%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 30% 32 Form: Single Back 88% 5 Rush 3 5.9% 12 4 DB 29% 9 Play Action 18% 32
Runs, first down 45% 24 Form: Empty Back 9% 16 Rush 4 56.2% 31 5 DB 68% 8 Offensive Motion 52% 8
Runs, second-long 11% 32 Form: Multi Back 4% 27 Rush 5 27.5% 3 6+ DB 2% 28 Avg Box (Off) 6.47 16
Runs, power sit. 54% 22 Pers: 3+ WR 71% 9 Rush 6+ 10.3% 3 Man Coverage 22% 28 Avg Box (Def) 6.47 18
Runs, behind 2H 25% 24 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 30% 15 Edge Rusher Sacks 48.9% 21 CB by Sides 74% 17 Offensive Pace 28.66 2
Pass, ahead 2H 61% 1 Pers: 6+ OL 8% 5 Interior DL Sacks 33.0% 12 S/CB Cover Ratio 28% 13 Defensive Pace 30.42 7
Run-Pass Options 5% 27 Shotgun/Pistol 63% 20 Second Level Sacks 18.1% 13 DB Blitz 13% 7 Go for it on 4th 0.93 22
240 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay both had the best DVOA in the league on play-action passes (56.5%) and the best DVOA in the league on other
passes (40.8%). 🏈 The Buccaneers led the league with 24.2% DVOA on running back carries out of shotgun (5.7 yards per
carry), but only ran on 12% of shotgun plays, which was 31st in the NFL. 🏈 Tampa Bay went max protect on a league-low
3.4% of pass plays, defined as seven or more blockers with at least two more blockers than pass-rushers. 🏈 The Buccaneers
were excellent on six-lineman sets for the second straight year, gaining 5.6 yards per play with 33.4% DVOA. 🏈 Tampa
Bay ran 69 wide receiver or tight end screens, second in the NFL behind Green Bay, as well as 30 running back screens. The
Buccaneers had a very similar average of 5.7 yards on the wide receiver screens and 5.6 yards on the running back screens.
Yet they had very different DVOA ratings: 15.6% DVOA on wide receiver screens but a dismal -78.5% DVOA on running
back screens, 31st in the NFL. The main issues: Tom Brady threw two picks on running back screens, including a pick-six in
Week 13 against Atlanta, plus seven different running back screens lost yardage compared to just two wide receiver screens.
🏈 Receiver drop totals are very inconsistent from year to year, and the Buccaneers were one of only two teams where Sports
Info Solutions counted at least 30 drops in both 2020 and 2021. (The other was Pittsburgh.) 🏈 Think Brady is getting extra
respect from the refs? We aren’t seeing it in more flags for his opponents. Tampa Bay tied for last in the league in how often the
opponent drew a penalty, and the Bucs were also dead last with just 635 opposition penalty yards. 🏈 Tampa Bay moved its
cornerbacks around much more near the end of the season. They had a “CB by Sides” number of 88% in Weeks 1 to 12, then
59% in Weeks 13 to 18. 🏈 The Tampa Bay defense ranked 27th against the pass in the red zone but seventh against the run.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Brady 1892 26.5% 739 5172 7.0 5.2 67.6% 43 11 C.Godwin 245 10.6% 127 98 1103 11.3 6.0 5 77%
B.Gabbert 9 0.0% 13 57 4.4 4.9 66.7% 0 0 M.Evans 340 23.9% 114 74 1035 14.0 3.2 14 65%
A.Brown* 126 12.8% 62 42 545 13.0 4.5 4 68%
T.Johnson -30 -19.9% 55 36 360 10.0 3.8 0 65%
B.Perriman 9 -6.5% 18 11 167 15.2 9.3 1 61%
C.Grayson 93 91.1% 12 10 212 21.2 7.0 2 83%
J.Darden -49 -68.4% 12 6 43 7.2 4.0 0 50%
Rushing S.Miller 1 -11.7% 9 5 38 7.6 1.8 0 56%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc R.Gage 102 1.4% 94 66 771 11.7 3.8 4 70%
L.Fournette 201 15.9% 180 812 4.5 8 0 57% R.Gronkowski* 166 19.9% 89 55 802 14.6 6.4 6 62%
R.Jones* 79 8.7% 101 428 4.2 4 2 62% C.Brate -53 -20.8% 57 30 245 8.2 2.7 4 53%
K.Vaughn 16 0.8% 36 180 5.0 2 0 53% O.Howard* 10 -0.6% 21 14 135 9.6 5.9 1 67%
T.Brady 39 19.9% 17 90 5.3 2 1 - L.Fournette 120 9.1% 84 69 454 6.6 6.5 2 82%
G.Bernard 20 56.0% 8 58 7.3 0 0 63% G.Bernard -4 -16.5% 29 23 123 5.3 5.8 3 79%
L.Bell* -6 -25.3% 8 18 2.3 0 0 38% R.Jones* 6 -6.0% 13 10 64 6.4 7.7 0 77%
K.Barner -19 -126.4% 4 0 0.0 0 0 0% K.Vaughn -4 -22.7% 8 4 26 6.5 3.5 0 50%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Alex Cappa* RG 27 17/17 1183 0 3.0 17 8 Donovan Smith LT 29 17/17 1148 9 1.5 14 10
Tristan Wirfs RT 23 17/17 1183 4 1.5 9 4 Ali Marpet* LG 29 16/16 1038 3 0.0 8 3
Ryan Jensen C 31 17/17 1152 5 1.0 4 5 Shaquille Mason RG 29 15/15 957 4 0.0 6 6

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 3.59 4.00 23 53% 30 23% 30 0.94 28 0.55 24 9.9% 13 47 7.6% 22 29.2% 11 10.0% 4 29
2020 4.57 4.55 9 88% 1 14% 4 1.15 21 0.97 6 8.8% 12 22 4.3% 3 15.0% 1 11.1% 12 32
2021 4.44 4.68 5 81% 2 15% 8 1.20 14 0.70 12 9.0% 7 23 3.5% 1 15.7% 1 7.5% 1 41
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.42 (3) Left Tackle: 4.76 (8) Mid/Guard: 4.76 (4) Right Tackle: 4.23 (15) Right End: 4.22 (15)

Having Tom Brady at quarterback helps everyone—Brady’s teams have had a top-five ranking in adjusted sack rate in each
of the last four years. His ability to get the ball out quickly explains why the Buccaneers led the league in adjusted sack rate
despite finishing 19th in Pass Block Win Rate, per ESPN. 🏈 Getting Shaq Mason, who is likely an upgrade over Alex Cappa,
for a fifth-round pick was a great move. Cappa has a 2.3% blown block rate over the past three seasons; Mason’s at just 1.9%.
Cappa also allowed six sacks to Mason’s three. 🏈 Ryan Jensen cut his blown blocks from 18 in 2019 and 2020 to just nine
 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 241

last season; he’s always in control and very rarely gets mauled. 🏈 Tristan Wirfs led all linemen in Sports Info Solutions’
total points earned metric. He also had the best blown block rate of any tackle with at least 400 snaps. He was sorely missed in
the playoff loss against the Rams; perhaps his absence in the loss is what inspired Brady to finally give Wirfs his phone number.
🏈 Donovan Smith had a great season as a pass protector but picked a terrible time to have his worst game of the season,
beaten regularly by Von Miller and the Rams’ speed rush in the divisional playoff loss. Fortunately, most NFL teams do not
start Von Miller. 🏈 Aaron Stinnie is the weak link among projected staters at the moment. Stinnie had a strong run filling
in for Alex Cappa in the 2020 postseason, so he’s first man up at left guard, but expect an open competition with second-round
rookie Luke Goedeke. The Central Michigan alum is a tight end-turned-tackle, sliding further inside due to a lack of length.
He’s got very sharp technique already and is still picking up nuances at the position; he may get a year of polish before stepping
into the starting lineup.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Ndamukong Suh* 35 DE 17 717 27 3.1% 95 20 10 1 20 70% 48 2.9 68 6.0 7 18 1
Vita Vea 27 DT 16 607 36 4.3% 75 29 12 2 27 74% 31 2.1 28 4.0 8 19 2
William Gholston 31 DE 17 507 36 4.1% 78 26 10 3 29 66% 64 2.0 22 4.5 7 12 0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches 29 DT 16 415 17 2.0% -- 16 5 2 16 94% -- 0.2 -- 0.0 3 11 0
Steve McLendon* 36 DT 12 253 12 1.9% -- 9 5 0 7 86% -- 2.0 -- 0.5 5 8 0
Akiem Hicks 33 DE 9 304 25 5.7% 42 19 6 3 19 74% 34 5.4 100 3.5 5 7 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Shaquil Barrett 30 OLB 15 767 55 7.1% 18 40 21 7 30 70% 54 3.4 77 10.0 14 37 2
Jason Pierre-Paul* 33 OLB 12 601 35 5.6% 43 23 8 7 14 93% 4 1.3 8 2.5 2 14 4
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka 23 OLB 17 560 29 3.3% 87 17 9 7 17 59% 84 4.0 90 4.0 7 23 2
Anthony Nelson 25 OLB 17 358 20 2.3% -- 17 8 1 13 77% -- 1.4 -- 5.0 5 15 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Devin White 24 ILB 17 1079 131 14.8% 24 64 15 22 62 60% 35 4.1 57 3.5 15 27 47 55% 23 4.9 13 3 0
Lavonte David 32 ILB 12 787 100 16.0% 19 55 18 6 40 60% 31 3.9 45 2.0 2 8 29 48% 37 4.6 8 3 0
Kevin Minter* 32 ILB 16 331 33 4.0% -- 18 5 8 19 58% -- 3.4 -- 1.0 2 6 14 71% -- 3.4 -- 0 0
Keanu Neal 27 ILB 14 580 70 10.0% 62 30 8 16 45 49% 67 4.6 76 1.0 2 2 25 48% 39 7.7 56 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 3.02 3.14 2 62% 11 29% 2 0.81 1 0.45 2 18.8% 2 47 6.7% 20 32.9% 7 17.6% 3
2020 3.35 3.60 1 70% 21 22% 2 0.85 1 0.40 5 18.6% 1 48 7.9% 6 29.0% 7 16.7% 3
2021 3.98 3.73 5 61% 7 26% 1 1.17 15 0.82 26 17.0% 5 47 6.7% 16 28.6% 4 15.7% 13
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.32 (7) Left Tackle: 4.47 (19) Mid/Guard: 3.35 (2) Right Tackle: 3.78 (9) Right End: 6.17 (31)

Todd Bowles’ defenses haven’t finished worse than 10th in stuff rate since he first became a coordinator in 2012. They have
finished first or second seven times in nine seasons spanning three franchises. 🏈 Second-round pick Logan Hall should fit
at defensive end in Bowles’ 3-4 front. He’s raw, only a two-year starter at Houston, but he packs a ton of power into his punch.
He’ll probably never be the undisputed guy as a pass-rusher, but he can move inside on passing downs and find success. 🏈
Vita Vea’s 10.1% pressure rate was eighth among defensive tackles, and most of the people ahead of him were 3-techniques
like Aaron Donald or Chris Jones, not nose tackles. 🏈 The Bucs opted to let Ndamukong Suh go and bring in Akiem Hicks
instead. The biggest concern with Hicks is health as he has only hit the 400-snap mark in one of the past three seasons. 🏈 Joe
Tryon-Shoyinka didn’t live up to his preseason hype as a rookie, but 23 hurries aren’t nothing. While his flashes of strength and
athleticism didn’t come frequently enough, they were there, and it’s not hard to imagine him building on that in Year 2. He’ll
need to with Jason Pierre-Paul out of the picture. 🏈 Devin White was among the leagues’ most targeted linebackers with 47.
While he still occasionally got turned around out there, he improved his coverage success rate from 41% in 2020 to 55% last
season. 🏈 Because he missed five games, Lavonte David’s 18 defeats were not near the top of the league. That’s notable,
because it was only the second time since 2013 David did not rank in the top five. 🏈 Shaquil Barrett is the only player in
the league with three straight seasons with at least a 15% pressure rate on more than 400 pass-rush snaps, per SIS charting.
242 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Antoine Winfield 24 FS 13 876 94 13.9% 9 33 17 12 42 31% 46 9.6 66 26 7.2% 52 14.0 69% 4 5.2 9 6 2
Jordan Whitehead* 25 SS 14 796 81 11.1% 31 41 15 13 34 56% 9 3.5 2 37 11.2% 18 7.7 59% 23 6.4 29 8 2
Jamel Dean 26 CB 15 685 61 7.8% 52 26 9 5 12 50% 22 5.8 35 57 20.1% 39 10.9 60% 16 5.6 13 9 2
Carlton Davis 26 CB 10 638 49 9.4% 30 23 9 7 8 50% 22 8.6 69 54 20.4% 36 10.6 56% 34 6.9 34 11 1
Mike Edwards 26 FS 14 531 52 7.1% 67 28 13 5 17 53% 11 9.0 62 23 10.4% 26 8.8 65% 10 4.2 5 7 3
Ross Cockrell 31 CB 17 474 42 4.8% -- 18 9 4 11 18% -- 8.5 -- 33 16.8% -- 9.2 48% -- 7.8 -- 7 0
Sean Murphy-Bunting 25 CB 9 461 45 9.6% 23 20 5 3 10 60% 10 4.9 24 35 18.3% 56 14.8 57% 28 8.3 60 3 0
Pierre Desir* 32 CB 12 308 30 4.8% -- 11 5 5 3 67% -- 5.3 -- 24 18.8% -- 14.2 38% -- 8.8 -- 4 2
Andrew Adams* 30 SS 14 214 25 3.4% -- 11 3 4 10 60% -- 4.4 -- 6 6.8% -- 11.3 50% -- 3.5 -- 4 1
Logan Ryan 31 SS 15 1002 125 15.0% 4 40 19 13 50 36% 38 6.6 34 33 8.9% 32 10.6 45% 56 9.1 55 8 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 12 3.7% 17 2.2% 18 -20.0% 6 -4.2% 18 -2.8% 8 10.7% 27 -49.0% 2
2020 5 -15.5% 6 5.9% 22 -28.6% 1 -23.2% 4 -12.0% 3 11.5% 25 -16.1% 5
2021 10 -5.2% 14 -11.2% 11 -2.8% 13 -4.7% 19 -7.8% 6 0.5% 19 1.5% 22

The Buccaneers used 14 different combinations of their five starting defensive backs last season, with 12 different players ap-
pearing in a game at one point or another. There’s next man up, and then there’s introduce yourself in the huddle. 🏈 Carlton
Davis’ 48 passes defended since 2019 are the most in the league. 🏈 Jamel Dean was forced into a more prominent role due
to injuries in the secondary and handled himself well. In the five weeks where Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting were both out,
Dean allowed just a 46.1% completion rate and 5.5 yards per target despite often having to match up with the top receivers on
the field. 🏈 The Buccaneers are optimistic that Murphy-Bunting’s struggles were related to coming back from injury, but
he has been outside the top 50 in yards per target in each of the last two seasons. 🏈 Logan Ryan’s history as a cornerback
makes him versatile in theory, but remember that there’s a reason Ryan was converted to safety to begin with. He’s hasn’t
finished better than 40th in success rate at either position since 2015. 🏈 Coverage was the weak link in Antoine Winfield’s
impressive 2020 rookie season. He stepped that up last year, reducing his yards per target by more than 3 yards with his success
rate skyrocketing from 42% to 69%. 🏈 Sam Houston cornerback Zyon McCollum blew up the combine, putting up a 4.33s
40, an insane 6.48s 3-cone, and tremendous results in the shuttle and broad jump as well. You won’t find a better collection of
tools in the draft. Those tools need a little refinement, and his production at the FCS level doesn’t quite match what he can do
athletically, but that’s fine for a fifth-round pick. Keep an eye on him.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -2.8% 27 -3.7 22 4.7 9 -4.4 29 -3.6 22 -6.9 32 -11.3 30
2020 -2.9% 26 -0.9 15 -5.5 26 -0.6 16 -5.4 26 -2.3 21 6.5 9
2021 -2.4% 27 -5.3 23 -3.9 26 -3.3 24 -1.1 21 0.9 12 1.6 15

Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant, Grant Stuard, barely played on defense but led Tampa Bay with 11 tackles and nine return stops.
🏈 2009’s Mr. Irrelevant, Ryan Succop, hasn’t had positive field goal value since 2017. 🏈 The Buccaneers surprisingly
used a fourth-round pick on Georgia punter Jake Camarda. Special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong touted Carmada’s intan-
gibles, specifically citing the fact that he played high-school baseball and ran a 4.56s 40. Just how much his baseball experience
will help him on the field remains, at press time, a mystery. 🏈 Jaelon Darden was more effective as a punt returner than a
kick returner, with +1.2 points of value on punts and -0.7 points of value on kickoffs.
 Tennessee Titans
2021 record: 12-5 Total DVOA: -3.0% (20) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.9 wins On the Clock (0-5): 19%
Pythagorean Wins: 10.3 (11) Offense: -4.2% (20) Postseason Odds: 36.6% Mediocrity (6-8): 42%
Snap-Weighted Age: 27.2 (5) Defense: -2.3% (12) Super Bowl Odds: 3.3% Playoff Contender (9-11): 31%
Average Opponent: 0.4% (17) Special Teams: -1.0% (23) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.2% (20) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 9%

2021: A flawed team pushing to win.

2022: A flawed team recognizing its flaws.

I t’s always nice to have a bit of self-awareness.

After a combined 23-10 record over the past two seasons
and a playoff run in each of the past three, the Tennessee Ti-
though the 2017 Miami Dolphins fell even further after Tan-
nehill tore his ACL before the season. On the other end, the
Chicago Bears made the Super Bowl in 2006. More recent
tans could have pushed more chips into the middle of the table improvements from teams on that list featured better quarter-
for 2022—especially in a year when all the other top contend- back play. The 2013 Indianapolis Colts got a second-year leap
ers in the conference did so. from Andrew Luck while the 2015 Arizona Cardinals had an
We knew the Titans were not as good as their record would MVP-caliber season from Carson Palmer after he appeared in
indicate, but it appears Tennessee might have gotten the hint just six games (but banked six wins) in 2014.
too. In 2020 when Tennessee went 11-5, the Titans ranked just A better comparison for the current Titans might be the re-
14th in DVOA. This past season when the Titans claimed the cent Cleveland Browns, who continued to build after 2020.
No. 1 seed in the AFC, they were just 20th with the lowest They improved by DVOA the next season but won fewer
DVOA ever put up by a No. 1 seed. The Titans were a com- games as roster limitations held them back.
bined 13-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer over It’s clear from Table 1 that “negative DVOA with double-
the past two seasons, the third-best record in the league. All of digit wins” is not an automatic regression trigger. This could
these figures point toward a team that overperformed its actual have easily been a situation where the Titans dug their heels in
quality of play. and went full Saints for the upcoming season, pushing further
to build up and around their veteran roster. After all, the Titans
Table 1. 10-Plus Wins with ranked fifth in snap-weighted age in 2021 and second on of-
fense behind only Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. That suggests a
DVOA Below 0%, 2005-2021 team ready to win now.
Tennessee could have extended the contract of Ryan Tan-
Year Team W-L DVOA Rk
W-L DVOA Rk nehill to lower a league-high $38.6-million cap hit, a figure
Y+1 Y+1 Y+1
brought on by a 2021 restructure. But not doing so allows the
2005 CHI 11-5 -1.8% 17 13-3 24.0% 5 Titans to get out of the deal for the 34-year-old quarterback
2006 NYJ 10-6 -2.3% 17 4-12 -17.3% 24 and save $17.8 million in 2023 should they choose. Or the
2009 CIN 10-6 -1.2% 19 4-12 -4.8% 19 Titans could ride out the contract until it voids after 2023.
2010 KC 10-6 -0.9% 18 7-9 -18.1% 27 Tennessee could have done something similar with Derrick
2012 IND 11-5 -16.2% 26 11-5 2.7% 14 Henry, who is set to have a cap hit of $15 million in each of
2014 ARI 11-5 -2.5% 20 13-3 30.2% 2 the next two seasons. But not moving Henry’s money around
2016 MIA 10-6 -1.4% 20 6-10 -21.7% 28 allows the Titans to potentially move on after 2022 with just
2018 DAL 10-6 -2.3% 18 8-8 19.9% 6 $3 million in dead money.
2019 HOU 10-6 -2.2% 16 4-12 -12.6% 24 Having to move on from Tannehill and Henry after this sea-
2020 CLE 11-5 -5.7% 18 8-9 4.8% 13 son isn’t Plan A for anyone, but given the reality of where the
2021 CIN 10-7 -0.1% 17 — — — Titans might be in 2022, having the contingency options is
2021 LV 10-7 -5.0% 21 — — — a smart pivot—especially after there were so few of them in
2021 TEN 12-5 -3.0% 20 — — — 2021. Last year’s Titans made an all-in push, hoping a bunch
of exceptions would remain exceptions. But exceptions only
Tennessee joined a rare group of teams that finished the sea- remain exceptions until they aren’t.
son with at least 10 wins and negative DVOA, a group that After a 378-carry season, Derrick Henry started 2021 on pace
also includes the 2021 Las Vegas Raiders and (just barely) for an even heavier workload. Henry had 219 carries through
Cincinnati Bengals. The 10 previous teams to do so show a the first eight weeks of the season, the most carries for a run-
mixed bag of results the following season (Table 1). Ryan ning back through Week 8 since the merger. That 27.4 carries
Tannehill happened to be the quarterback for one of them, per game average would have topped his 23.6 figure from 2020
243
244 TENNESSEE TITANS

2021 TEN DVOA by Week

2022 Titans Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 NYG 7 IND 13 at PHI
2 at BUF (Mon.) 8 at HOU 14 JAX 40%
3 LV 9 at KC 15 at LAC 20%
4 at IND 10 DEN 16 HOU (Sat.)
0%
5 at WAS 11 at GB (Thu.) 17 DAL (Thu.)
6 BYE 12 CIN 18 at JAX -20%

-40%

-60%

had it continued for a full season, but numbers like that aren’t -80%

built to sustain and Henry did not record another regular-season -100%

carry after that Week 8 game. Henry suffered a Jones fracture in

his right foot that forced him to miss the remainder of the regu-
lar season. Henry, still proving he is an athletic freak, returned
for Tennessee’s playoff game, but he averaged just 3.1 yards per yards per attempt with a 6.7-yard average depth of target.
carry with five first downs on 20 attempts. The problem, of course, was getting those two on the field at
Even before the injury, Henry’s efficiency had dropped off the same time. Jones had only played nine games with Atlanta
from his high-volume production in 2020. Henry had 2.2% in 2020 as a 31-year-old and even before that had limited his
DVOA in 2021, which ranked 26th, after his 15.5% DVOA practice time to keep his body healthy for game days. Those
ranked 10th in 2020. injury issues continued after the trade, and Jones made it into
A deeper look at what was happening on those rushes high- only 10 games for Tennessee. Brown, with some injury issues
lights why that might have been the case. In 2020, Henry of his own, played 13 games and appeared on 80% of more of
faced a stacked box on 27.8% of his carries, per NFL Next the offensive snaps in just five of them.
Gen Stats. In 2021, that jumped to 36.5%. Per Next Gen Stats’ Tennessee’s dream pairing of Jones and Brown only made
expected rushing model, Henry averaged 1.11 rushing yards it onto the field for 30% of Tannehill’s dropbacks. In 2022,
over expected per carry in 2020 and 45.6% of his carries had that will be 0%. Jones was released earlier in the offseason,
more rushing yards than expected. During the 2021 season, and Brown was surprisingly traded during the first round of
those numbers dropped to 0.05 and 37.8%, respectively. the NFL draft.
Henry was hit at the line on 46.6% of his carries according We’re currently at the 31st team chapter alphabetically, so if
to Sports Info Solutions, which was the second-highest rate you have read this book in order you have already seen nearly
among the 18 running backs with at least 200 carries. With half a dozen variations on trying to explain the landscape of
contact coming earlier, Henry had a much harder time break- the current wide receiver market. But what makes Tennessee’s
ing through it as his broken tackle rate dropped from 15.1% decision to trade Brown different from the decisions to trade
in 2020 to just 9.6% in 2021. Only one running back (Ezekiel Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill is that Brown wasn’t some
Elliott) had a lower rate. veteran looking for a market-setting third contract that would
Still, the Titans as a team were ninth in rushing DVOA take him into his mid- to late-thirties. Brown will play the full
through Week 8. After Henry went out, one would think the 2022 season as a 25-year-old and will be 29 years old at the
team would rely more on passing, but the Titans stayed com- time his new contract with the Philadelphia Eagles expires.
mitted to the run. Tennessee went from 46% pass on early Yet it still seems like the Titans were caught up in the shift
downs in the weeks with Henry to 43% in the following weeks of the new market and not prepared to adjust. Immediately
without him. But over the second half of the season, the Titans after the trade, Brown told Turron Davenport of ESPN that
ranked 22nd in rushing DVOA to finish 17th for the season. Tennessee only offered up to $20 million per year with incen-
Of course, there were also problems with the passing game tives on a contract extension. That would have been near the
which kept Tennessee from taking things to the air more often. top of the wide receiver market as recently as February but
The Titans gambled last offseason by sending a 2022 second- with top receivers now hitting $30 million per year, that offer
round pick and 2023 fourth-round pick to Atlanta in exchange wasn’t acceptable for Brown.
for Julio Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick. The idea was that With a clear divide between what the team and player be-
Jones would pair with A.J. Brown to make a dynamic receiv- lieved a contract should look like, the Titans acted swiftly and
ing duo on a team that used just two receivers on the field at made the draft day move, sending Brown to the Eagles for the
one of the highest rates in the league. 18th overall pick. Tennessee immediately turned around and
On the surface, the Titans weren’t wrong. When Brown and used that pick on Brown’s replacement, Arkansas wide receiv-
Jones were both on the field, Tannehill completed 66.5% of er Treylon Burks. On a more-or-less one-for-one swap, the
his passes and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt with a 9.1-yard Titans are banking on getting similar production from Burks
average depth of target. With one or both on the sidelines, but on a rookie contract, which would allow more financial
Tannehill completed 67.6% of his passes but averaged just 6.5 flexibility around the rest of the roster.
 TENNESSEE TITANS 245

Rookie wide receivers have come in and produced earlier off play-action. He threw between the numbers on 54.2% of
over the past few seasons, but few have jumped right into star his pass attempts in 2021, which was the third-highest rate
territory off the bat. Ja’Marr Chase (326 DYAR), Justin Jef- behind Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo.
ferson (373), and Brown himself (251) set a high bar in their While those middle-of-the-field throws can be efficient, they
first seasons that teams are now trying to clear by replacing turned toward predictable throughout the season, especially as
high-priced veterans with rookies. But for every Jefferson or the Titans tried to turn them into shot plays. Without much
A.J. Brown who excels immediately, there’s a Jalen Reagor else in the offense, those routes became telegraphed. Look
(-32 DYAR) or N’Keal Harry (-25 DYAR) showing that rook- no further than the first offensive play of Tennessee’s playoff
ie wide receivers sometimes take time to develop … or never game against the Cincinnati Bengals, which saw Jessie Bates
develop at all. jump and intercept an in-breaker intended for Brown.
Tennessee made a more calculated effort to replace Brown Enter Malik Willis. Now the Titans aren’t going to bank on
than a generic “insert rookie here” approach. Burks physi- a third-round pick stepping in as the quarterback of the future
cally profiles similarly to Brown and was the top prospect in (they also made a pick before Willis in the third round, if that
this year’s draft class by Playmaker Score. With a 225-pound tells you anything), and the history of third-round picks as start-
frame that matches Brown’s, Burks has the ability both to ers does not provide a long list of successes, but the selection
break tackles and run after the catch, which should translate of Willis was another pivot that at least gives Tennessee an on-
right into Tennessee’s passing scheme. But even with the gen- hand option to explore. Willis was considered by some draft
erous projection, it’s still a bit of a leap to imagine Burks go- observers to be the top prospect in this year’s uninspiring quar-
ing from running just 282 routes in his final college season to terback class. QBASE was not as high on Willis, but it wasn’t
leading an NFL offense. high on anybody this year. Willis still combines mobility with
Burks will at least have a veteran running mate in Robert the strongest arm in the class, and there is little downside to
Woods, whom the Titans acquired from the Los Angeles Rams throwing a dart at that type of prospect late on Day 2.
for a sixth-round pick. Woods tore his ACL in November but Tennessee’s draft was all about finding what could be the
still finished 31st among receivers in DYAR despite missing next stage of this roster. Burks will fill in for Brown. Willis is
nearly half the season. How quickly Woods gets back to full the possible Tannehill replacement. Second-round pick Rog-
health—and how quickly Burks takes off—could determine er McCreary could immediately see playing time at corner.
how this passing offense performs. Behind them on the depth Third-round pick Nicholas Petit-Frere might jump right into
chart, the Titans still have much of the same cast Tannehill the open right tackle competition. Fourth-round pick Hassan
struggled with when Brown or Jones didn’t play. Haskins provides a downhill runner who could slide in and
That brings us to Tannehill and the outlook of the quarter- take some of the load off Henry.
back position. Tannehill might be the best of the “can produce So with all of this talk of the future, where does that place
great results with ideal surroundings” quarterback tier, but the Titans for 2022? It places them exactly where they were
even the top of that tier is still in that tier, and 2021 showed already: a middle-of-the-pack team with enough talent to
the downside. compete in the AFC South but not enough to challenge the
Not many quarterbacks would have been able to put up other top AFC contenders.
great results with instability at receiver and along the offen- We project the Titans to again have a below-average offense
sive line. Injuries played a part in that, in particular those to but a borderline top-10 defense. If there is a place where Ten-
Brown and Jones, but the Titans otherwise did not have a high nessee can point to a successful youth movement, it would
number of injuries on offense. They ended up with the fifth- be on the defensive side of the ball, where the Titans jumped
lowest adjusted games lost on that side of the ball last season. from 29th in DVOA to 12th last season.
Still, the overall offensive environment impacted Tanne- Usually we would be a little more wary of such a defensive
hill’s play and after two seasons as a borderline top-10 quar- jump, but there are reasons to believe in (and project) this de-
terback, he dropped to 27th in both DYAR and DVOA. Few fense to sustain its level of play. It was the defense, not the
quarterbacks were impacted more by pressure last season, offense, that really had a problem with injuries last season,
with the fourth-biggest gap between DVOA with pressure as the Titans ranked 20th in adjusted games lost. Tennessee
(-110.4%) and without (44.8%). That has always been the case was one of 10 teams to have 16 different starting lineups on
with Tannehill, even in his successful seasons with the Titans. defense, but they also had the fifth-fewest unique lineups on
In fact, his gap in DVOA with and without pressure was even defense overall.
bigger in 2020, but his performance in both areas was better Tennessee made several defensive personnel changes be-
overall. Perhaps more concerning, Tannehill’s DVOA without fore last season, but the biggest shift came from the structure.
pressure has dropped in each of the past three seasons, with In 2020, Mike Vrabel handled most of the defensive respon-
2021 showing less than half of his 2019 output (93.5%). sibilities but allowed linebackers coach Shane Bowen to be
For a quarterback who can excel in structure but hasn’t the playcaller on game days. Given the 2020 results, there
provided much outside of it, that drop in clean-pocket perfor- was some skepticism when Bowen was officially promoted
mance raises a red flag. Part of that stems from defenses catch- to defensive coordinator for the 2021 season, but the move
ing on to the types of throws Tannehill has relied on during his paid off. With Bowen fully in charge, the defense underwent
Tennessee tenure. Tannehill has killed on in-breaking routes a massive shift and adopted many principles from the Fangio/
246 TENNESSEE TITANS

Staley two-high structure taking over the league. There is also hope the pass rush will improve in 2022. The
The 2020 version of the defense was very much in the Titans got only six games out of Bud Dupree after handing
Patriot-esque Vrabel mold. Tennessee played a higher-than- him a gigantic contract in free agency. Harold Landry carried
average rate of man coverage and 56% of their coverage snaps the pass rush from the edge and was rewarded with his own
used a single-high safety. They also followed a Bill Belich- massive extension this offseason. The Titans rushed four on
ick strategy of rushing three, with the sixth-highest rate in the 79% of pass plays but ranked just 22nd in pressure rate when
league at 13%. rushing four. A full season of a Landry-Dupree duo along with
Little of that stuck around in 2021. Per Sports Info Solu- Jeffery Simmons inside should help boost that production.
tions, the Titans used a two-high pre-snap shell on 62% of The sum of the additions and subtractions puts the Titans
plays, the fifth-highest rate in the league. They also dropped about where they were last season. Titans fans view last year’s
the rate of man coverage (36% to 27%) and used single-high team as a 12-5 No. 1 seed. The reality is that Tennessee was
post-snap coverages less often (56% to 47%). While the of- a fine team that won more than it should have. That seems to
fense was ramming Derrick Henry into stacked boxes, the be how the Titans see themselves when you consider their ap-
defense used a light box of six or fewer defenders on 72% of proach to the 2022 season.
defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league behind the And that’s about where we see the Titans in 2022 as well.
Rams (77%) and the Broncos (74%). They’re fine. Fine might be enough in the AFC South, but it
Those split-safety looks helped cover up some holes in the leaves them behind other teams in the AFC. It would be dif-
back end and also emboldened the high-level talent in the sec- ficult, and maybe futile, to push the current version of this ros-
ondary. Safety Kevin Byard was first-team All-Pro, and cor- ter in an effort to win more now. Instead, the Titans still have
nerback Kristian Fulton had a second-year breakout, ranking the possibility of competing in 2022 with some pivot points to
third among qualified cornerbacks in coverage success rate. jumpstart a rebuild and get back into contention faster in the
The secondary will be younger in 2022 with Janoris “Jackrab- future should fine not exactly cut it this year.
bit” Jenkins gone and a trio of draft picks from the past three
seasons likely to see more playing time. Dan Pizzuta

2021 Titans by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 ARI L 0% 13 38 248 416 -2 -77% -39% 25% -13% Total DVOA -4.2% 20 -2.3% 12
2 at SEA W 20% 33 30 532 397 -1 -10% 19% 27% -2% Unadjusted VOA -4.4% 20 -0.9% 13
3 IND W 82% 25 16 368 265 -3 24% 14% -7% 3% Weighted Trend -5.4% 21 -8.2% 8
4 at NYJ L 41% 24 27 430 355 1 -32% -25% 5% -2% Variance 8.5% 22 8.5% 24
5 at JAX W 97% 37 19 368 454 2 2% 33% 27% -5% Average Opponent -1.8% 6 -1.5% 24
6 BUF W 75% 34 31 362 417 0 55% 57% 2% -1%
7 KC W 97% 27 3 369 334 2 48% 10% -31% 7% Passing 5.8% 21 1.8% 11
8 at IND W 32% 34 31 340 307 1 0% -21% -18% 4% Rushing -6.5% 17 -9.2% 14
9 at LAR W 64% 28 16 194 347 1 27% -16% -39% 4%
First Down -1.5% 19 -5.2% 12
10 NO W 14% 23 21 264 373 1 -36% -9% 32% 5%
Second Down -6.5% 21 2.9% 19
11 HOU L 2% 13 22 420 190 -5 -61% -48% 5% -8%
Third Down -5.7% 21 -4.4% 13
12 at NE L 0% 13 36 355 394 -4 -57% -12% 32% -13%
13 BYE First Half -1.4% 18 -4.7% 12
14 JAX W 100% 20 0 263 192 4 40% -12% -60% -9% Second Half -7.2% 22 -0.2% 10
15 at PIT L 15% 13 19 318 168 -4 -21% -38% -15% 2%
16 SF W 80% 20 17 278 389 2 43% 13% -21% 9% Red Zone -0.5% 17 -7.8% 10
17 MIA W 100% 34 3 308 256 2 64% 12% -40% 13% Late and Close 4.8% 15 -3.1% 12
18 at HOU W 89% 28 25 405 353 0 -3% 37% 28% -12%
19 BYE
20 CIN L 8% 16 19 353 345 -2 -5% -17% -14% -1%
 TENNESSEE TITANS 247

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 9-7 7.4 7.5 334 356 -4 -6.2% 18 -2.1% 18 5.7% 23 1.6% 13 10.8 5 16.6 7 26.5 22 26.9 10 26.8 2
2018 9-7 8.2 7.5 310 303 -1 -6.0% 21 -5.6% 23 1.3% 18 0.8% 13 29.4 10 35.3 20 26.2 23 26.4 14 26.6 6
2019 9-7 9.9 9.1 402 331 +6 7.6% 10 13.0% 6 1.9% 18 -3.5% 29 19.7 7 23.9 6 26.7 18 26.3 17 26.0 13
2020 11-5 9.2 8.4 491 439 +11 2.5% 14 18.4% 4 11.5% 29 -4.4% 28 27.8 7 29.7 10 27.5 5 26.5 13 27.3 2
2021 12-5 10.3 8.0 419 354 -3 -3.0% 20 -4.2% 20 -2.3% 12 -1.0% 23 29.7 5 43.7 20 28.4 2 26.0 21 26.9 3

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

TEN Offense TEN Offense vs. Opponents TEN Defense TEN Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 57% 5.5 -1.7% 33% Base 35% 5.3 -0.2% 65% Base 22% 4.8 -2.1% 11 66% 5.8 -1.3%
12 19% 5.5 9.1% 55% Nickel 56% 5.5 -1.8% 37% Nickel 51% 5.8 -2.5% 12 20% 5.1 -15.0%
21 9% 4.8 -13.0% 64% Dime+ 6% 5.3 -5.9% 13% Dime+ 26% 5.9 -3.9% 21 6% 5.9 12.0%
13 7% 4.2 -6.3% 78% Goal Line 1% 1.7 58.6% 60% Goal Line 0% 1.8 17.4% 10 2% 8.5 67.2%
22 2% 5.1 -44.8% 89% Big 1% 0.3 -57.1% 75% Big 1% 2.9 12.4% 13 2% 4.5 9.5%
611 2% 5.0 15.0% 65%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 44% 3 Form: Single Back 81% 20 Rush 3 5.3% 13 4 DB 22% 20 Play Action 29% 9
Runs, first down 59% 1 Form: Empty Back 6% 29 Rush 4 79.0% 4 5 DB 51% 29 Offensive Motion 52% 7
Runs, second-long 38% 1 Form: Multi Back 13% 7 Rush 5 13.2% 31 6+ DB 26% 4 Avg Box (Off) 6.81 2
Runs, power sit. 62% 12 Pers: 3+ WR 59% 24 Rush 6+ 2.5% 28 Man Coverage 28% 17 Avg Box (Def) 6.15 29
Runs, behind 2H 41% 1 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 33% 12 Edge Rusher Sacks 66.7% 7 CB by Sides 79% 14 Offensive Pace 31.88 21
Pass, ahead 2H 43% 25 Pers: 6+ OL 4% 11 Interior DL Sacks 31.0% 14 S/CB Cover Ratio 25% 20 Defensive Pace 30.83 13
Run-Pass Options 3% 30 Shotgun/Pistol 46% 32 Second Level Sacks 2.4% 32 DB Blitz 11% 13 Go for it on 4th 0.99 18

With the departure of Jonnu Smith and an increase in three-wide sets, the Titans dropped out of the top three in two-tight end
frequency for the first time since 2014. 🏈 Tennessee faced a heavy box (eight or more) on 35% of running plays, second
in the NFL behind New England. The Titans averaged just 3.9 yards per carry on these runs (-19.8% DVOA) compared to 4.5
yards per carry on other runs (-1.0% DVOA). 🏈 The Titans ranked third (13.3% of passes) in max protect, defined as seven
or more blockers with at least two more blockers than pass-rushers. They have ranked in the top five in max protect every year
since 2016. 🏈 On third or fourth down, the Titans ranked 25th in DVOA passing the ball but fifth when running. 🏈 The
Titans ranked 30th in both yards allowed (6.3) and yards after catch allowed (9.9) on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Along similar lines, the Titans struggled against both wide receiver screens (7.0 average yards, 29.5% DVOA) and running
back screens (7.5 average yards, 43.5% DVOA). 🏈 The Tennessee defense recovered only four of 16 fumbles. 🏈 Titans
opponents were flagged for a league-leading 1,070 yards of penalties.
248 TENNESSEE TITANS

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
R.Tannehill -20 -11.7% 577 3397 5.9 5.0 67.5% 21 14 A.J.Brown* 112 1.2% 105 63 869 13.8 3.7 5 60%
N.Westbrook-Ikhine 91 7.6% 57 38 476 12.5 3.8 4 67%
J.Jones* 45 -1.1% 48 31 434 14.0 3.6 1 65%
C.Rogers* 17 -7.4% 43 30 301 10.0 3.4 1 70%
M.Johnson* 7 -8.6% 19 9 160 17.8 10.6 0 47%
J.Reynolds* 18 4.3% 13 10 90 9.0 4.1 0 77%
D.Fitzpatrick 8 0.0% 8 5 49 9.8 0.6 1 63%
C.Hollister -3 -17.7% 7 4 33 8.3 4.3 0 57%
R.McMath -30 -68.0% 6 2 8 4.0 4.5 0 33%
A.Firkser* 6 -4.9% 43 34 291 8.6 3.3 2 79%
Rushing G.Swaim -24 -15.8% 40 31 210 6.8 4.5 3 78%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc M.Pruitt* 45 25.9% 18 14 145 10.4 4.2 3 78%
D.Henry 99 2.2% 219 937 4.3 10 1 45% T.Hudson -9 -33.8% 6 3 31 10.3 8.0 0 50%
D.Foreman* 50 0.5% 133 566 4.3 3 2 52% A.Hooper -3 -7.9% 61 38 345 9.1 4.9 3 62%
D.Hilliard 65 22.3% 56 350 6.3 2 1 46% J.McNichols* 5 -11.5% 38 28 240 8.6 9.1 1 74%
R.Tannehill 121 28.8% 45 273 6.1 7 4 - D.Hilliard -55 -47.5% 26 19 87 4.6 5.7 0 73%
J.McNichols* 7 -3.8% 41 156 3.8 0 0 41% D.Henry 45 27.3% 20 18 154 8.6 8.9 0 90%
A.Peterson* 0 -8.2% 27 82 3.0 1 0 44% D.Foreman* 63 85.3% 11 9 123 13.7 13.8 0 82%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Ben Jones C 33 17/17 1159 5 0.5 9 16 Taylor Lewan LT 31 13/13 845 4 3.0 15 8
David Quessenberry* RT 32 17/17 1083 2 6.5 23 15 Aaron Brewer RG/LG 25 12/5 507 3 6.0 10 7
Rodger Saffold* LG 34 15/15 852 5 1.0 14 5 Jamarco Jones LG/RT 26 10/2 163 2 0.0 3 1
Nate Davis RG 26 14/14 850 4 2.5 11 7

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.83 4.65 4 73% 5 18% 15 1.36 3 1.05 5 10.9% 23 56 11.2% 32 28.6% 9 15.0% 28 34
2020 5.17 4.97 2 71% 10 15% 9 1.44 2 1.14 3 11.9% 26 25 5.5% 11 21.4% 7 13.6% 20 32
2021 4.36 4.31 16 83% 1 17% 16 1.16 21 0.84 5 12.2% 19 47 8.4% 26 24.1% 7 16.5% 29 22
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.85 (10) Left Tackle: 4.27 (16) Mid/Guard: 4.28 (15) Right Tackle: 4.42 (12) Right End: 3.55 (26)

The line didn’t give up a high pressure rate, thanks in part to how quickly Ryan Tannehill released the ball. But the Titans had
one of the league’s highest blown block rates, and those pressures turned into sacks at one of the highest rates in the league, also
partly due to Tannehill’s tendency to take sacks throughout his career. 🏈 Center Ben Jones was re-signed this offseason. The
32-year-old has been an iron man, starting every game but one since he came to Tennessee in 2016. That mostly came with solid
play, but his blown block rate increased from 1.7% in 2020 to 2.3% in 2021. 🏈 Nate Davis has dropped his blown block
rate in each year of his career, though that is related to strength as a run blocker instead of development as a pass protector. 🏈
Taylor Lewan returned from a torn ACL and gave a mostly league-average performance at left tackle, though that was below
his previous level of production. 🏈 Two spots in the starting lineup will be up for grabs: left guard and right tackle. 2021
second-round pick Dillon Radunz is expected to be a candidate for both. Radunz filled in some at guard and got one start at left
tackle in Week 16 that did not go particularly well with four blown blocks, a sack allowed, and a false start against the 49ers.
🏈 The competition at right tackle will be third-round rookie Nicholas Petit-Frere. Petit-Frere has experience on both sides
of the line in Ohio State’s zone-blocking, play-action-heavy offense. While there were some hiccups as a pass blocker in 2021
(3.2% blown block rate), he was one of the best run blockers in this draft class (0.6%). 🏈 Left guard candidates include
Jamarco Jones and Aaron Brewer. Brewer was a 2020 UDFA for Tennessee who started five games for the Titans at both guard
spots and had a rather disappointing 3.6% blown block rate on his snaps at guard. 🏈 Jones, a 2018 fifth-round pick of the
Seahawks, signed a multi-year deal with $3.15 million guaranteed after serving as a super-utility spot starter with Seattle. In
2021, Jones played snaps at every position along the line but center.
 TENNESSEE TITANS 249

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Jeffery Simmons 25 DE 17 932 60 7.2% 14 49 18 8 37 86% 4 1.5 7 8.5 7 34 6
Teair Tart 25 DT 11 344 16 3.0% 97 9 3 1 15 60% 81 1.5 5 0.0 2 4 0
Naquan Jones 24 DT 13 328 31 4.9% -- 22 6 1 23 70% -- 2.9 -- 2.5 0 2 1
Larrell Murchison 25 DE 11 200 8 1.5% -- 6 1 1 8 75% -- 2.6 -- 0.0 0 3 0
Kyle Peko* 29 DE 8 157 10 2.6% -- 8 3 1 7 86% -- 1.6 -- 2.0 1 3 0
DeMarcus Walker 28 DT 13 456 32 4.7% 64 22 11 4 27 67% 58 3.1 79 2.0 6 16 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Harold Landry 26 OLB 17 981 75 9.1% 4 45 21 6 42 55% 90 3.7 87 12.0 11 36 0
Denico Autry 32 DE 17 709 37 4.5% 64 30 20 5 18 67% 70 2.6 45 9.0 8 37 6
Bud Dupree 29 OLB 11 397 18 3.4% 84 14 5 2 11 82% 13 2.6 52 3.0 5 17 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Zach Cunningham 28 ILB 14 647 95 12.8% 37 55 18 10 52 75% 2 2.2 1 0.0 1 3 30 33% 69 7.3 50 3 0
David Long 26 ILB 10 634 81 16.6% 12 46 12 13 40 70% 8 3.9 42 0.0 2 7 31 55% 24 5.6 26 6 2
Rashaan Evans* 27 ILB 12 445 59 10.1% 59 25 6 6 29 55% 52 2.8 7 0.0 0 3 14 71% 3 6.0 33 2 2
Jayon Brown* 27 ILB 10 420 56 11.5% 49 28 7 7 30 60% 31 3.6 30 0.0 0 1 12 58% -- 7.1 -- 2 1
Monty Rice 23 ILB 10 179 31 6.4% -- 17 2 4 18 56% -- 3.1 -- 0.0 1 1 12 58% -- 5.4 -- 1 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.01 4.09 9 63% 13 18% 18 1.03 7 0.76 17 11.7% 21 43 7.1% 14 25.1% 30 12.1% 28
2020 4.60 4.31 14 63% 8 16% 20 1.23 18 1.01 27 13.6% 14 19 3.9% 31 23.0% 24 11.1% 25
2021 3.79 4.06 10 68% 16 18% 10 1.05 7 0.46 6 15.7% 10 43 7.2% 10 25.9% 15 12.3% 25
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 5.37 (31) Left Tackle: 3.79 (9) Mid/Guard: 3.85 (7) Right Tackle: 3.06 (1) Right End: 6.12 (30)

Jeffery Simmons finally broke through as one of the league’s best pass-rushing interior linemen. After just three sacks with
21 hurries in 2020, Simmons put up 8.5 sacks with 34 hurries. Simmons was third in pressures and first in solo sacks among
defenders lined up as a 3-technique. 🏈 Harold Landry also converted more of his pass rushes into sacks on the edge with a
career-high 12 sacks and 36 hurries. Landry has been in the top 15 for hurries in each of the past two seasons and was rewarded
with a Bud Dupree-sized contract extension this offseason. 🏈 Dupree struggled to stay on the field in his first season with
the Titans, missing six games and not hitting 70% of defensive snaps played in a game after Week 2. He started slowly after a
2020 torn ACL, then an abdominal injury sent him to IR in the middle of the season. 🏈 While Dupree was the big-money
free agent in 2021, the biggest impact came from Denico Autry. Autry was tied for 13th in quarterback hurries as he bounced be-
tween lining up inside and on the edge. Autry was ninth in pressures as a 3-technique, ninth as a 7-tech, 15th as a 4i, and 26th as
a 5-tech. 🏈 The Titans completely revamped the linebacker corps throughout the season. What started with Rashaan Evans
and Jayon Brown ended with David Long and Zach Cunningham. 🏈 Cunningham was signed as a midseason waiver claim
from Houston. He remains one of the best downhill run-stopping linebackers in the league but to call him a zero in coverage
might be overstating his value. The Titans claimed Cunningham’s entire contract, but there is an easy out after this season with a
cap hit that jumps from $3.9 million in 2022 to $13 million in 2023. 🏈 Long made more clean-up tackles and still struggled
with missing them in 2021. However, he picked up some slack in the passing game with at least passable coverage skills. 🏈
Third-round rookie Monty Rice wasn’t able to get on the field that often, though he did have four midseason starts. He showed
some flashes, especially with an 11-tackle game in Week 10, before a Week 12 ankle injury ended his season.
250 TENNESSEE TITANS

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Kevin Byard 29 FS 17 1057 101 12.2% 22 34 15 7 49 27% 55 7.0 37 46 10.8% 22 11.6 61% 20 6.0 22 13 5
Jackrabbit Jenkins* 34 CB 14 861 60 8.8% 40 21 6 8 16 19% 78 7.6 64 67 19.3% 44 12.3 55% 38 6.7 28 6 1
Kristian Fulton 24 CB 13 737 54 8.5% 43 30 11 8 8 38% 49 6.3 41 50 16.9% 69 11.8 68% 3 6.8 30 14 2
Amani Hooker 24 SS 12 704 66 11.3% 29 23 7 7 27 33% 41 5.9 19 16 5.6% 64 12.1 50% 50 9.8 64 4 1
Elijah Molden 23 CB 16 632 64 8.2% -- 29 13 8 19 63% -- 3.3 -- 31 12.2% -- 10.0 58% -- 9.5 -- 4 1
Dane Cruikshank* 27 SS 14 414 39 5.7% -- 11 7 4 13 15% -- 7.0 -- 16 9.6% -- 8.6 63% -- 6.9 -- 1 0
Chris Jackson 24 CB 12 386 37 6.3% -- 13 3 2 4 50% -- 3.5 -- 31 20.0% -- 13.9 52% -- 7.6 -- 4 0
Buster Skrine 33 CB 7 217 20 5.9% -- 8 4 6 4 75% -- 5.0 -- 18 20.6% -- 14.2 50% -- 7.7 -- 3 1

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 21 19.5% 29 -39.4% 2 25.3% 30 9.5% 24 -0.9% 9 4.4% 19 12.1% 23
2020 30 -2.7% 15 1.0% 19 -14.8% 8 -27.2% 3 -6.5% 11 36.6% 32 5.9% 22
2021 11 -2.5% 15 0.9% 20 22.1% 29 -10.3% 14 20.0% 30 -26.3% 3 -9.7% 10

The Titans have cycled through cornerbacks and thrown multiple high picks at the position, hoping at least some stick. 🏈
After limited time as a rookie, Kristian Fulton had a nice Year 2 breakout. Fulton was constantly around the ball, third among
qualifying corners in success rate and tied for 11th in passes defensed. So much of that stemmed from his ability to read receiv-
ers’ routes in zone and break on the ball. With Jackrabbit Jenkins released, Fulton will take over as the team’s top corner. 🏈
We have seen very little of Caleb Farley, Tennessee’s 2021 first-round pick. He played just 5% of defensive snaps last season
due to injuries; injuries also cut short his 2019 collegiate season, and he opted out of 2020 due to COVID. 🏈 Elijah Molden
was a steady slot defender as a rookie. From Week 6 on, after Molden became a regular, he played the 14th-most slot snaps and
allowed just a 47.4% completion rate, third best among defenders with at least 200 slot snaps in that time. 🏈 Tennessee went
corner again in this draft, selecting Auburn’s Rodger McCreary in the second round. McCreary is only 5-foot-11 but held up
well both inside and outside in the SEC. He could serve as both Farley insurance and find a way into a regular role. The Titans
played dime at one of the highest rates in the league last season, which provides a path for all four of these corners to be on the
field at the same time. 🏈 Kevin Byard was boosted by Tennessee’s shift to more two-high looks that moved him around the
field. He rebounded in both interceptions and passes defensed after a down 2020, eventually getting voted first-team All-Pro.
🏈 Amani Hooker was also a beneficiary of the scheme shift and an open path to a starting role. Hooker didn’t have as many
splash plays in coverage and his per-target metrics don’t look all that favorable, but he was one of the better safeties at deterring
targets when he was in coverage.

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 -3.5% 29 -14.9 32 -2.9 23 -2.9 27 5.1 8 -1.7 19 6.3 6
2020 -4.4% 28 -8.2 28 -1.4 20 -4.7 29 -8.5 28 0.8 14 4.3 12
2021 -1.0% 23 -6.9 26 5.8 6 -5.3 27 -2.1 23 3.2 6 3.1 14

Randy Bullock wasn’t signed to the Titans until September of last year, and that was originally only to the practice squad.
Injuries and a poor Week 1 performance from Michael Badgley got Bullock promoted. The Titans (and Bullock) weren’t par-
ticularly great at field goals, extra points, or kickoffs, but the bar had been so low for kickers in Tennessee that Bullock got a
two-year extension this offseason. 🏈 The Titans did have fairly good coverage on kickoffs, which helped keep the unit as
an overall plus. 🏈 Punter Brett Kern finished 12th in net punt value, a relative disappointment after finishing eighth and
second in each of the past two seasons. Kern turned 36 years old in February. 🏈 Chester Rogers handled most of the return
duties in 2021 and was a much better punt returner than kick returner. Rogers was seventh in punt return value but 55th among
61 qualified returners in kick return value. He was not re-signed this offseason and remains a free agent. 🏈 Other Titans
returners didn’t have much success, either. Dontrell Hilliard was the only one with positive value, but that came on just eight
returns. He is currently in line to take over kick returns for 2022 with safety Amani Hooker on punt returns. 🏈 Rookie fifth-
round receiver Kyle Philips is another challenger for the return jobs. He had two career punt return touchdowns at UCLA and
averaged over 22 yards per return in two of his four seasons, though that came on just eight and nine returns.
 Washington Commanders
2021 record: 7-10 Total DVOA: -10.1% (22) 2022 Mean Projection: 7.7 wins On the Clock (0-5): 21%
Pythagorean Wins: 5.9 (24) Offense: -5.3% (21) Postseason Odds: 29.6% Mediocrity (6-8): 42%
Snap-Weighted Age: 26.1 (19) Defense: 5.8% (27) Super Bowl Odds: 2.0% Playoff Contender (9-11): 29%
Average Opponent: 3.5% (1) Special Teams: 1.0% (12) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -2.5% (31) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 8%

2021: A mediocre run-first offense anchored by one of the worst third-down defenses of all time.

2022: No longer a Football Team, back to Wentz we came.

T here are a lot of dysfunctional football teams in the NFL.

The Jaguars have had a top-10 pick in all but one draft
since 2007, and almost none of these players made it to a sec-
Not only was the idea to trade multiple valuable picks for
Wentz despite those warning signs a stark break from reality,
but it looks much worse in retrospect. Two quarterbacks of
ond contract with the team. The Lions haven’t won a play- similar value to Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker May-
off game since 1991. The Texans are the nouveau riche kids field, remained available well into June as we went to our pub-
on the block, building a bland roster around the idea that a lishing deadline. It took multiple misreads of the market to get
chaplain can pick the player characters that will do best. The to where the Commanders are today. And they did not exactly
Panthers treat quarterback searches like Bobby Hill with his shatter the idea that they’re misreading the market at the draft
father’s credit card. when they capped a receiver run by using the 16th overall
“Forgotten” is a word that conveys a little too much insult selection on Jahan Dotson, who was given a late first-round
to long-time followers, but the [racial slur redacted] Football grade at best by most publications. ESPN’s Matt Miller noted
Team Commanders are the current NFL dynasty of dysfunc- that third-rounder Brian Robinson was also drafted “at least a
tion, a stagnant swamp very much worthy of bearing the name full round too early.”
of the nation’s capital. And because of how deep it runs here, The major reason to be optimistic about Washington is re-
it is probably a little overlooked in our Squirrel!-based media gression. On paper, the 2021 Washington Football Team de-
society. The Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since fense was held back largely by one thing: a complete inability
2005 and haven’t had a point differential over +13 since 2012. to stop the pass on third downs. They allowed a 48.5% con-
Since Daniel Snyder took over the team in 1999, they have version rate on third downs, second worst in the NFL. Once
vacillated between spending extravagantly on big-name free- we add in fourth downs and account for the yards needed to
agent busts and being so undesirable that nobody actually convert each of these plays, Washington ended up dead last in
wants to join the team. defensive DVOA on third and fourth downs at 33.1%. Specifi-
This year, they picked “being so undesirable that nobody cally on third- and fourth-down passes, their 48.2% DVOA
actually wants to join the team.” The Commanders brought in was nearly 10% worse than the No. 31 Jets.
three outside free agents before the draft—guards Andrew Nor- The history of recent pass defenses this bad on third and
well and Trai Turner and edge rusher Efe Obada. All three of fourth down includes a few Washington defenses (Table 1).
those players were Panthers when Ron Rivera was in Carolina. The track record suggests massive regression for this unit next
Then Washington traded two third-round picks to Indianapolis season—in a good way. The last 12 units to play this poorly on
for quarterback Carson Wentz and a swap of 2022 second-round third- and fourth-down passes were much better the following
picks. (One of those third-rounders could upgrade to a second season. The average team had negative DVOA against third-
next season if Wentz plays 70% or more of the snaps.) Wentz and fourth-down passes the next year. Even the worst-case
cost the Colts a playoff berth with two terrible performances scenario in Table 1 cut DVOA allowed nearly in half. Most of
at the end of the season, first falling to the Raiders in Week these teams also saw their overall defensive DVOA improve
17 after he missed a week of practice on the COVID reserve significantly.
list because he was unvaccinated, then getting easily handled However, pass defense this bad also typically creates
by the Jaguars to end the season. He was trashed out the door change. Nine of the 13 teams on Table 1 fired their defensive
in Indianapolis in a way you don’t normally see teams trash a coordinator, but Jack Del Rio is still here. Terrible pass de-
quarterback. (“I think the worst thing you can do is have a mis- fense on third downs also usually leads to massive roster turn-
take and try to keep living with it going forward,” Colts owner over. The 2021 Raiders, our most recent example, traded for
Jim Irsay said. “For us, it was something we had to move away Yannick Ngakoue and Denzel Perryman, signed Gerald Mc-
from as a franchise. It was very obvious.”) He also was given Coy and Casey Hayward, and drafted Nate Hobbs and Trevon
away by the Colts without any real plan at quarterback in a way Moehrig. McCoy only played nine snaps due to injury, but of
that spoke to their desperation. Just one year after that same the seven Raiders defenders with the most snaps last season,
team gave up more than a first-round pick for him! five were brand new.
251
252 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

2021 WAS DVOA by Week

2022 Commanders Schedule 100%
Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

60%
1 JAX 7 GB 13 at NYG
2 at DET 8 at IND 14 BYE 40%
3 PHI 9 MIN 15 NYG 20%
4 at DAL 10 at PHI (Mon.) 16 at SF (Sat.)
0%
5 TEN 11 at HOU 17 CLE
6 at CHI (Thu.) 12 ATL 18 DAL -20%

-40%

-60%

In contrast, the Commanders will return their seven defend- -80%

ers with the most snaps last year to starting roles. Landon -100%

Collins (eighth) and Matthew Ioannidis (ninth) left in free

agency, and some of their snaps will in theory be replaced by
better health for the injured defenders from last year. (Chase
Young’s return is a reason to believe in improvement, yes.) good, depending on your definition of good! Wentz threw 27
But on paper this is the exact same defense as it was last touchdowns and was picked just seven times. His ESPN QBR
year with second-round Alabama defensive tackle Phidarian of 54.7 was ninth in the NFL, tied with Russell Wilson and
Mathis filling in for Ioannidis and some projected improve- above Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow. He was 16th in passing
ment by 2021 first-rounder Jamin Davis replacing Collins. For DVOA.
the most part, the same young players will be backed up by the But, of course, the Colts sure weren’t interested in keeping
same depth. And when you look at the teams on Table 1 that him, and he was obviously helped by both Indianapolis’ stellar
didn’t make changes versus those that did—the 2020 Texans rushing attack and Frank Reich’s play calling. Wentz had just
couldn’t make many changes because of the Laremy Tunsil three games with more than 251 passing yards, and the Colts
trade, for instance—the improvement regression could offer lost two of them. His penchant for making enormous mistakes
feels more capped. created a lowlight reel that could hang with his disastrous
The other major area of improvement is the theoretical one 2020 season. There’s a YouTube video with “all of [his] left-
that Wentz offers. And to be sure, Taylor Heinicke is nobody’s handed pass attempts” with the Colts that’s over two minutes
idea of a franchise quarterback. If you were the type of person long. Wentz was picked off on a shovel pass in the red zone
to avoid Colts games last year—and it’s not hard to forget the against the Rams, and pick-sixed trying to throw the ball away
AFC South exists sometimes for many football fans—and just in his own end zone when the Colts and Titans were tied in the
look at the numbers, they sure look acceptable. Maybe even fourth quarter. While playing through two ankle sprains early
in the season, he moved like he was running in quicksand.
Table 1. Pass Defenses Over 40% Before the Wentz trade happened, Chris Ballard noted in his
wrap-up press conference that “You’ve got to be able to get
DVOA Against Passes on Third/ the ball out of your hands quickly. You’ve got to be able to get
the ball out and take the easy completion when it comes, and
Fourth Down, 2012-2021 that is a big part of Frank’s offense.” Wentz has been utterly
unable to do that the past two years. He now plays quarterback
3rd/4th 3rd/4th
Def
Def like Elon Musk runs his social media.
Year Team Pass Pass Change DVOA Change The view with burgundy-colored glasses is that Washington
DVOA
DVOA DVOA Y+1 Y+1
will be able to run the ball enough to effectively keep Wentz
2012 OAK 40.8% 24.2% -16.6% 14.3% 10.7% -3.6% dialed in on easier passes and keep him out of his own way.
2012 BUF 41.0% -38.2% -80.1% 10.5% -13.4% -23.9% That’s certainly what they did in their best games of the 2021
2013 CLE 42.0% -21.8% -63.8% 10.0% -2.0% -12.0% season. From Week 4 to Week 13, the then-Football Team had
2014 NYJ 46.6% -13.8% -60.4% 4.5% -13.0% -17.5% just two weeks with negative pass offense DVOA. But they
2015 JAX 62.6% 8.8% -53.8% 10.6% -2.1% -12.7% got there by running the ball as much as they could—they had
2016 WAS 54.1% -32.4% -86.5% 7.0% -3.5% -10.6% 256 rush attempts and 258 pass attempts in that span. When
2017 IND 55.9% 4.5% -51.4% 9.3% -3.5% -12.8% it came to the passing game, less was more. But the truth is
2018 OAK 47.7% 2.3% -45.4% 14.2% 15.8% +1.6% that not only is Jonathan Taylor missing from the Command-
2018 NYG 48.9% 22.2% -26.7% 6.8% 11.5% +4.8% ers roster, but so are Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, or Braden
2019 HOU 51.5% 22.1% -29.4% 5.6% 14.3% +8.6% Smith. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner hasn’t ever had the
2019 WAS 40.2% -11.7% -51.9% 8.9% -18.3% -27.3% talent to make it all work perfectly, but he isn’t in Reich’s
2020 LV 46.2% -13.7% -59.9% 9.6% 0.6% -9.0% universe as a playcaller either.
2021 WAS 48.2% -- -- 5.8% -- -- Part of the problem with being optimistic about Washington
AVERAGE 48.2% -3.9% -52.1% 9.3% -0.3% -9.5% taking a step forward is that there’s no reason to be optimistic
 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 253

about anything that this team has done. That’s the toughest ing to fulfill as Young, Terry McLaurin, Montez Sweat, and
sell to a non-fan. We’re talking about a situation where Snyder so on try to drag this team into relevance. There are prob-
trying to bury yet another sexual harassment allegation made ably more than a few people that fit this bill in the current
by Tiffani Johnson with an “independent report” is not even front office as well. But the institution almost always drags
the biggest scandal of the offseason. There was a report in the promise down with them. And they overdraft players, and
USA Today that owners were “counting votes” on the possibil- they trade for the wrong quarterback, and other players aren’t
ity of removing Snyder in May after he was accused of cheat- interested in playing here, and the stadium decays while the
ing teams out of ticket revenue. Those allegations were denied seats remain empty.
but are being investigated by Virginia Attorney General Jason These Commanders have two things working in their favor.
Miyares. We couldn’t even get this chapter fully edited be- One is that we believe that their defensive DVOA will rebound
fore having to add another scandal, when Del Rio called the both because it declined significantly from 2020 and because
January 6 attack on the Capitol a “dust-up” on Twitter. He everybody with that level of horrific pass defense has bounced
managed to drag any hope of a Commanders stadium vote in back to some respect. Another is that by virtue of playing in the
Virginia down the tubes for this year before he mercy-deleted NFC East, which gets to play the AFC South and NFC North,
his Twitter account. And when your embattled defensive coor- they have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
dinator can’t even defend your ability to get free government However, we also have them with one of the worst offenses
money, what exactly is he good for? in the NFL, because adding Wentz doesn’t bring much benefit.
This all comes on the heels of last year’s sexual misconduct Our projection system sees a reasonable possibility that Wentz
scandal in which the league reportedly forced Snyder’s wife, will regress towards his abysmal 2020 performance combined
Tanya, to take over day-to-day operations of the team. The only with a reasonable possibility that the Washington offense as
problem with the punishment is that a) nobody enforced it, and a whole will regress to past performance, when they ranked
b) the NFL had no actual interest in enforcing it. A Washington in the bottom five for offensive DVOA in 2018, 2019, and
Times scoop had Snyder returning to his previous involvement 2020. Curtis Samuel’s theoretical health and a big rookie sea-
with the team, and Goodell said at the annual owners meet- son from Dotson would help, but neither of those things can
ings that Snyder hadn’t been involved but, well, you’re familiar be known at this point.
with America, right? You know what happens to the obscenely Asked about being sent to Washington in his introductory
wealthy and powerful as far as actual oversight or punishment press conference, Wentz said “to feel that I’m wanted here and
in this country, right? We don’t need to dance around it. The people believe in me and support me, I think it’ll be a great
commissioner can dictate whatever he wants, but the owners situation to flourish.” Wentz has been one of the most publicly
employ him, not the other way around. And that dynamic has naive players in the NFL for years, to the point where he al-
made the idea of removing Snyder much trickier than it would ways seems surprised when things don’t go the way they were
be if he played football instead of profiting from it. It took the supposed to. (That it ended so soon in Indianapolis “definitely
team two years to find a new name, and they picked a name that surprised” him.) When you strip out money, the desire to win,
is both objectively worse than “Football Team” and an appeal and the respect that comes with those two things, what are
to power that can only be described as pure projection. The only you left with?
thing this team has commanded with Snyder in control is a large All the organization has to offer its players is the ability to
budget for lawyers. make them feel wanted. And that’s the naked truth of what the
In the worst institutions in this country right now, there are Commanders have become under Snyder.
people fighting upstream against the current to make things
better. That’s the role that these young Commanders are aspir- Rivers McCown
254 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

2021 Football Team by Week Trends and Splits

Wk vs. W-L PGWE PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 LAC L 60% 16 20 259 424 1 4% -14% -13% 5% Total DVOA -5.3% 21 5.8% 27
2 NYG W 66% 30 29 407 391 -1 1% 32% 40% 9% Unadjusted VOA -4.8% 21 8.7% 28
3 at BUF L 0% 21 43 290 481 -3 -64% -27% 36% -1% Weighted Trend -9.6% 23 -0.5% 18
4 at ATL W 97% 34 30 412 374 0 3% 16% 29% 16% Variance 4.4% 3 6.6% 19
5 NO L 5% 22 33 373 369 0 -11% 12% 25% 2% Average Opponent -1.2% 10 2.5% 6
6 KC L 1% 13 31 276 499 1 -22% -26% -7% -2%
7 at GB L 7% 10 24 430 304 -1 -18% -11% 1% -6% Passing 5.4% 22 18.9% 28
8 at DEN L 7% 10 17 342 273 -1 -31% -11% 7% -13% Rushing -10.2% 19 -14.5% 7
9 BYE
First Down 15.7% 5 -5.1% 13
10 TB W 83% 29 19 320 273 1 46% 9% -33% 4%
Second Down -17.4% 27 -1.8% 15
11 at CAR W 54% 27 21 369 297 -1 -39% 8% 49% 2%
Third Down -24.8% 28 33.1% 32
12 SEA W 34% 17 15 371 267 0 11% 2% -15% -6%
13 at LV W 50% 17 15 298 310 -1 -7% -7% 3% 3% First Half -1.3% 17 6.6% 26
14 DAL L 1% 20 27 224 323 -2 -9% -46% -31% 5% Second Half -9.2% 23 4.9% 21
15 at PHI L 3% 17 27 237 519 2 -28% -20% 14% 5%
16 at DAL L 0% 14 56 257 497 -2 -80% -43% 23% -14% Red Zone -10.3% 26 -8.9% 9
17 PHI L 31% 16 20 312 330 -1 19% 1% -6% 12% Late and Close -2.3% 21 8.6% 25
18 at NYG W 97% 22 7 325 177 3 31% 4% -32% -4%

Five-Year Performance
Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST
Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk
W W AGL AGL Age Age Age
2017 7-9 6.8 6.9 342 388 -4 -2.6% 16 -3.8% 20 -3.5% 12 -2.4% 22 69.4 31 69.3 31 27.1 15 26.3 16 25.3 26
2018 7-9 5.7 5.8 281 359 +7 -20.1% 29 -19.8% 28 2.8% 20 2.5% 8 86.6 31 9.1 1 28.4 2 26.2 19 25.1 32
2019 3-13 3.7 4.4 266 435 +1 -26.9% 30 -20.7% 30 8.9% 27 2.7% 7 81.9 32 49.1 28 27.1 10 25.5 28 25.1 30
2020 7-9 8.2 7.6 335 329 -4 -2.3% 16 -21.8% 32 -18.3% 3 1.1% 15 62.5 28 34.6 14 26.8 15 25.2 29 25.6 24
2021 7-10 5.9 6.8 335 434 -5 -10.1% 22 -5.3% 21 5.8% 27 1.0% 12 72.1 29 35.4 15 26.8 12 25.5 28 25.9 20

2021 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups

WAS Offense WAS Offense vs. Opponents WAS Defense WAS Defense vs. Opponents
Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA
11 75% 5.4 -1.5% 35% Base 17% 5.1 -1.7% 60% Base 16% 4.7 -22.9% 11 59% 6.4 17.2%
12 18% 4.8 1.7% 52% Nickel 68% 5.5 -2.2% 41% Nickel 67% 6.1 6.7% 12 21% 5.2 -7.1%
21 4% 4.4 -6.7% 56% Dime+ 15% 4.8 -2.2% 10% Dime+ 17% 6.8 31.2% 21 6% 4.8 -14.2%
612 1% 1.5 -78.4% 73% Goal Line 0% 1.0 83.9% 100% Goal Line 0% 1.3 68.4% 611 3% 3.5 -27.2%
611 1% 1.4 -31.7% 100% 13 3% 7.8 -38.3%
22 2% 5.7 36.4%

Strategic Tendencies
Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk
Runs, first half 41% 13 Form: Single Back 85% 14 Rush 3 4.4% 17 4 DB 16% 28 Play Action 35% 2
Runs, first down 46% 22 Form: Empty Back 11% 8 Rush 4 63.9% 25 5 DB 67% 10 Offensive Motion 52% 9
Runs, second-long 34% 4 Form: Multi Back 4% 25 Rush 5 28.0% 1 6+ DB 17% 14 Avg Box (Off) 6.35 27
Runs, power sit. 68% 7 Pers: 3+ WR 75% 5 Rush 6+ 3.7% 19 Man Coverage 25% 25 Avg Box (Def) 6.52 17
Runs, behind 2H 30% 11 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 21% 28 Edge Rusher Sacks 31.1% 32 CB by Sides 80% 12 Offensive Pace 31.38 20
Pass, ahead 2H 44% 23 Pers: 6+ OL 2% 18 Interior DL Sacks 47.3% 3 S/CB Cover Ratio 34% 6 Defensive Pace 30.09 4
Run-Pass Options 16% 8 Shotgun/Pistol 77% 7 Second Level Sacks 21.6% 9 DB Blitz 7% 24 Go for it on 4th 1.34 9
 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 255

Washington’s offense had the league’s biggest gap in DVOA between its performance on play-action passes (48.9% DVOA,
7.8 yards per pass) and other passes (-21.8% DVOA, 5.0 yards per pass). 🏈 Washington had an odd split of throwing only
29% of passes to the left side of the field compared to 46% of passes on the right side. 🏈 Washington was dismal when it
used an empty backfield, with just 3.4 yards per play (compared to an NFL average of 6.1 yards) and -87.6% DVOA. Both fig-
ures were the lowest in the NFL. 🏈 Washington was tied for 30th in the league with just 89 broken tackles on offense. 🏈
The Washington defense, however, with second in the league with just 96 broken tackles on defense. Because Washington faced
more plays than Green Bay, they ranked No. 1 in the lowest percentage of defensive plays with at least one broken tackle. 🏈
A number of metrics demonstrate the strange underperformance of the Washington defensive line in 2021. Washington ranked
dead last in the percentage of sacks that came from edge rushers but also No. 1 with 37% of sacks being “non-pressure” sacks
such as coverage sacks and failed scrambles. Washington also ranked dead last with just a 26% pressure rate when blitzing.

Passing Receiving
Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C%
T.Heinicke 184 -5.7% 529 3145 5.9 5.4 65.4% 20 14 T.McLaurin 139 0.8% 130 77 1053 13.7 4.0 5 59%
G.Gilbert* -49 -33.5% 33 174 5.3 4.9 64.5% 0 0 A.Humphries* -11 -15.1% 62 41 383 9.3 3.9 0 66%
K.Allen* 19 3.3% 21 115 5.5 3.8 63.2% 1 0 D.Carter* 33 -3.0% 44 24 296 12.3 3.3 3 55%
R.Fitzpatrick* -28 -70.8% 7 11 1.6 2.0 50.0% 0 0 D.Brown -1 -13.4% 25 12 165 13.8 2.8 0 48%
C.Wentz 461 1.8% 548 3326 6.1 5.1 62.5% 27 7 C.Sims 79 30.9% 23 15 211 14.1 2.8 2 65%
D.Milne -26 -34.5% 14 9 83 9.2 4.3 0 64%
C.Samuel -20 -38.4% 9 6 27 4.5 6.7 0 67%
Rushing R.Seals-Jones* -60 -25.7% 49 30 271 9.0 5.1 2 61%
Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc L.Thomas 46 18.9% 25 18 201 11.2 3.7 3 72%
A.Gibson 21 -6.7% 258 1037 4.0 7 5 52% J.Bates 26 8.0% 25 20 249 12.5 7.0 1 80%
J.Patterson 25 0.5% 68 266 3.9 2 1 49% J.D.McKissic 98 20.6% 53 43 396 9.2 8.8 2 81%
T.Heinicke 45 5.7% 50 320 6.4 1 3 - A.Gibson 31 -3.7% 52 42 294 7.0 7.9 3 81%
J.D.McKissic 56 19.8% 48 212 4.4 2 0 63% J.Patterson 31 34.1% 11 10 73 7.3 7.5 0 91%
J.Williams 17 11.2% 17 79 4.6 1 0 59% J.Williams -6 -32.2% 6 4 28 7.0 9.0 0 67%
D.Carter* 29 13.4% 10 85 8.5 0 1 -
W.Smallwood* 4 8.5% 5 25 5.0 0 0 60%
C.Wentz 38 4.1% 45 222 4.9 1 4 -
A.Armah 9 15.2% 5 21 4.2 0 0 80%

Offensive Line
Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age G/GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run
Charles Leno LT 31 17/17 1121 2 4.5 20 7 Wes Schweitzer RG 29 11/5 401 4 1.0 5 3
Ereck Flowers* LG 28 16/16 1061 2 4.5 10 13 Keith Ismael C 24 10/5 382 1 2.0 5 6
Brandon Scherff* RG 31 11/11 697 6 1.0 8 1 Saahdiq Charles RG/RT 23 10/4 253 4 4.0 8 1
Cornelius Lucas RT 31 15/7 587 1 3.5 16 2 Tyler Larsen C 31 8/3 185 1 1.5 3 2
Chase Roullier C 29 8/8 490 1 0.0 4 1 Trai Turner RG 29 17/17 1084 6 4.5 7 8
Samuel Cosmi RT 23 9/9 474 2 2.5 10 4 Andrew Norwell LG 31 17/17 1079 10 1.5 14 8

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont
2019 4.36 4.28 18 61% 22 19% 17 1.14 20 0.89 14 7.5% 3 50 9.8% 31 30.7% 21 14.3% 22 29
2020 4.06 4.35 16 73% 7 15% 11 1.20 16 0.51 28 8.4% 11 50 7.3% 22 22.9% 10 12.0% 15 28
2021 4.09 4.28 19 77% 3 15% 6 1.19 17 0.39 28 9.4% 9 43 8.0% 24 26.6% 18 14.2% 19 22
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.42 (14) Left Tackle: 4.85 (6) Mid/Guard: 3.92 (26) Right Tackle: 4.53 (7) Right End: 4.47 (12)

A surprise release by the Bears last May, Charles Leno played one of his best seasons with the Commanders, getting called
for just two penalties in over a thousand snaps. He’s more of a solid tackle than a star, but solid tackles make bank and Leno
pulled down a three-year, $37.5-million extension this offseason. 🏈 The bookend at the moment looks to be 2021 second-
rounder Sam Cosmi, who missed a large portion of last season with ankle and hip injuries. Cosmi’s first 500 snaps looked fairly
promising, but it’s a pretty small sample size at the moment. Cornelius Lucas was the swing tackle last season and the Com-
manders liked him enough to re-sign him to a two-year, $6.5-million deal. The 2014 UDFA has been a solid swing tackle for
256 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

quite a bit. 🏈 Washington spent on veterans at guard this offseason, bringing in Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner. Turner
was fine for Pittsburgh as a full-time starter but has clearly declined from his 2015-2019 form, when he made five Pro Bowls
in a row. Norwell has been much better in pass protection than as a run blocker but was one of the few Jacksonville free-agent
signings to see the entirety of his contract. Norwell has three void years after 2023 and again figures to be a short-term solu-
tion. “The way coach treats his players. He’s very, very consistent,” Norwell said about Ron Rivera, who gave him a shot as an
undrafted rookie in Carolina. 🏈 Wes Schweitzer looked acceptable each of the last two years and should be quality depth in
case of an injury. Seventh-rounder Chris Paul (Tulsa) could be the guard of the future if he can pump enough iron to get stronger
at the point of attack. He will look to be the first Chris Paul in major American sports to win a championship. 🏈 Since being
drafted in the sixth round in 2017, center Chase Roullier has started 61 games for Washington and been extremely solid. He did
miss half the season after fracturing his fibula in Week 8, and he’s getting up there in years—he’ll turn 29 in August. But on
paper the Commanders are solid and old up the middle. Tyler Larsen continues the theme as the main backup at the position.

Defensive Front
Overall vs. Run Pass Rush
Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Daron Payne 25 DT 17 837 61 7.2% 16 44 9 2 55 71% 45 3.2 81 4.5 10 27 0
Jonathan Allen 27 DT 17 772 62 7.3% 13 45 14 0 50 66% 63 2.8 65 9.0 21 31 0
Matt Ioannidis* 28 DT 16 607 38 4.8% 61 28 9 0 32 75% 26 2.0 23 2.5 8 22 0

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush

Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt
Montez Sweat 26 DE 10 483 24 4.8% 59 17 9 3 18 67% 70 1.9 18 5.0 9 15 0
Chase Young 23 DE 9 477 28 6.2% 30 23 8 0 22 86% 10 0.6 1 1.5 4 20 2
James Smith-Williams 25 DE 14 387 27 3.9% 74 21 10 0 19 74% 38 2.0 23 2.5 1 8 1
Casey Toohill 26 DE 16 361 23 2.9% -- 16 2 2 18 61% -- 3.7 -- 1.0 5 8 1
Bunmi Rotimi 27 DE 9 204 10 2.2% -- 8 2 0 9 78% -- 3.1 -- 1.0 0 1 0
Efe Obada 30 DE 10 237 13 2.8% -- 11 6 3 4 100% -- 1.5 -- 3.5 5 8 1

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass

Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Cole Holcomb 26 OLB 16 1021 149 18.6% 8 66 14 14 86 51% 59 4.6 73 1.0 2 5 56 46% 44 8.4 63 7 2
Jamin Davis 24 MLB 16 582 77 9.6% 66 29 10 11 42 45% 76 4.7 78 1.0 1 5 24 25% 71 9.4 70 1 0
Jon Bostic* 31 OLB 4 179 22 11.0% 52 8 1 4 13 46% 74 2.8 5 0.0 0 0 8 38% -- 9.9 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk
2019 4.71 4.85 29 64% 16 16% 26 1.22 21 0.95 27 10.0% 28 46 8.3% 4 26.1% 29 14.1% 21
2020 3.93 4.06 7 72% 27 21% 5 1.15 13 0.56 8 14.0% 12 47 7.9% 7 27.7% 9 16.0% 6
2021 3.78 4.16 12 73% 28 17% 15 1.01 6 0.36 1 11.1% 21 38 7.0% 11 23.6% 25 16.6% 8
2021 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.46 (20) Left Tackle: 4.13 (14) Mid/Guard: 4.02 (12) Right Tackle: 4.06 (12) Right End: 4.36 (17)

While Chase Young’s sophomore season was derailed because of a torn ACL, nothing from it should make us any less con-
fident in him being a future star on the edge. He declined to 1.5 sacks in nine games, but his pressure rate was steady and his
hurry rate actually increased. Young believes he’ll be ready for Week 1. 🏈 Montez Sweat has 21 sacks in three seasons and
has been a steady run defender. He’s not a franchise-level player, but he’s a solid building block. The Commanders picked up
his fifth-year option. James Smith-Williams, a 2020 seventh-rounder, was the third defensive end last year and is probably best
cast as an early-down edge-setter. Free-agent signee Efe Obada, formerly of the Panthers and Bills, is now the third-best pass-
rusher on the team. Let’s throw it to Obada to see his thoughts on his early career: “I didn’t have a lot of success early in my
career. Got my ass kicked a lot.” At least he’s getting better. 🏈 Jonathan Allen stepped up as the best pass-rusher on the team
in 2021, notching a career-high nine sacks and 58 pressures (combining hits, sacks, and hurries). His pressure rate, 13.1%, was
higher than it had been since an abbreviated five-game stint in 2017. He’s locked up to a four-year, $72-million contract that
should keep him in burgundy and gold through at least 2023. 🏈 It’s Allen’s running mate inside, Daron Payne, that we’re
less sure about. Payne enters the 2022 season on his fifth-year option and with contract talks stalled. He’s coming off his worst
season as a pro, one where the highest average tackle depth of his career speaks to how poor his run defense was. The Com-
manders drafted second-round Alabama defensive lineman Phidarian Mathis despite having plenty of other holes, a decision
that speaks loudly about how they feel about Payne. The Athletic reported in April that the Commanders were not planning on
 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 257

offering Payne an extension and were open to trading him. 🏈 There are bad rookie seasons and then there’s what happened
to Jamin Davis. His 11 missed tackles were tied with Kwon Alexander for the most of any linebacker with less than 560 snaps,
and he was the only linebacker in Sports Info Solutions’ charting to allow a catch rate above 90% with more than 12 targets.
The Commanders are counting on him to pull it together in Year 2. 🏈 Cole Holcomb has been a fairly pedestrian starter
since getting drafted in the fifth round in 2019, and his 14 missed tackles point to another area that the team should probably
be interested in upgrading. The Commanders signed not one, not two, but four undrafted free agents at the position. They also
retained David Mayo as a main backup, though he was another part of the problem last year. “(Cole) did a good job when he
was in there. … (He) grew in that position last year when he got an opportunity to play some Mike,” Martin Mayhew said in a
March presser. Does anyone have London Fletcher’s number?

Defensive Secondary
Overall vs. Run vs. Pass
Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int
Bobby McCain 29 FS 17 1031 72 8.5% 61 22 8 9 26 23% 65 8.9 60 19 4.5% 68 15.5 68% 6 6.1 23 9 4
Kendall Fuller 27 CB 16 1004 93 11.6% 5 39 15 6 10 60% 10 4.9 24 89 21.6% 25 10.3 51% 55 6.2 23 16 1
Kamren Curl 23 SS 16 878 103 12.9% 15 40 9 8 37 57% 8 4.5 7 41 11.4% 17 7.2 59% 27 5.7 14 5 0
William Jackson 30 CB 12 748 47 7.8% 51 20 6 7 9 33% 54 7.2 59 54 17.6% 65 13.5 48% 65 8.4 62 8 2
Landon Collins* 28 SS 13 675 83 12.8% 17 42 15 13 46 59% 7 5.1 10 35 12.6% 8 6.9 43% 63 9.5 62 2 2
Danny Johnson 27 CB 12 336 22 3.7% -- 8 7 2 4 25% -- 11.3 -- 21 15.2% -- 9.8 52% -- 7.0 -- 2 0
Benjamin St-Juste 25 CB 9 318 29 6.5% -- 12 3 1 4 100% -- 2.5 -- 31 23.8% -- 12.9 48% -- 8.1 -- 3 0
Jeremy Reaves 26 FS 5 195 29 11.6% -- 11 4 0 13 54% -- 5.1 -- 12 15.0% -- 13.1 33% -- 13.8 -- 1 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk
2019 24 -10.5% 9 43.4% 32 12.2% 23 -13.6% 11 34.9% 31 23.6% 31 -3.9% 15
2020 2 14.1% 27 -30.0% 2 -24.3% 3 -21.1% 5 -9.4% 5 4.0% 17 -46.9% 1
2021 28 9.5% 21 36.5% 32 5.9% 22 9.2% 25 19.4% 29 -16.4% 8 0.8% 21

Last year’s big free-agent splurge, William Jackson III, allowed six touchdowns in 54 targets—double what he had in 2019
and 2020 combined. “I hate watching early on, because I don’t even look like myself out there,” Jackson said at OTAs. “But
later on in the season, I started playing better and then started feeling like myself and it started showing on the field. Obvi-
ously, the zone was foreign to me early on.” 🏈 Kendall Fuller probably had the best season of any of Washington’s corners,
traveling inside to the slot on occasion and breaking up 16 passes despite only getting the one interception (and dropping three
possible interceptions). He’s into the last two seasons of his four-year, $40-million contract, and he has a chance of seeing the
whole thing out now. 🏈 2021 third-rounder Benjamin St-Juste and Danny Johnson split time at corner more or less equally.
St-Juste was a disaster in coverage in his first and last games of the year before a concussion ended his season in Week 12, but
in between those two contests he was decent enough for a rookie and offers more physical upside. Johnson pushed Fuller out-
side but showed decently in his largest snap sample to date. Washington would obviously prefer St-Juste to win the job, while
Johnson remains depth that was re-signed to a one-year deal. 🏈 Bobby McCain got a two-year, $10-million deal with three
void years after the initial wave of free agency. He has done an admirable job transitioning from slot corner to deep safety but
is just a stopgap at this point in his career. 🏈 His running mate at safety is Kamren Curl, a seventh-round find who enters
Year 3 of his rookie deal as an excellent box safety with the versatility to handle deep and slot assignments. His tackling took a
major step forward in Year 2. Fourth-rounder Percy Butler (Louisiana) will compete with 2021 fifth-rounder Darrick Forrest for
main backup duties at safety. Butler defensed 16 passes in his last two seasons with the Ragin’ Cajuns, and if everything comes
together, he could eventually take over for McCain at free safety. Forrest has more of a box safety profile.
258 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Special Teams
Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Punt Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank
2019 2.7% 7 1.2 15 2.5 11 6.8 3 4.8 11 -1.8 20 1.0 17
2020 1.1% 15 -2.0 18 1.7 15 -1.3 18 17.9 2 -10.8 32 -14.8 31
2021 1.0% 12 -2.3 19 2.8 13 6.1 5 -0.6 20 -0.5 17 -18.9 32

Joey Slye kicked for three teams last season, including the Football Team, and has an 82.8% career field goal rate with 13-of-
21 accuracy on kicks over 50 yards. He beat out veteran kicker Brian Johnson for the job in June, but history tells us to expect
a pretty short leash on Slye. We could see some in-season kicking changes. 🏈 Local institution Tress Way enters his age-32
season as the unquestioned punter. He has only made one Pro Bowl, but he has been very solid over the years. Let’s turn to him
for some commentary on the kicker situation: “Joey Slye hits a ball that’s coming out of the Jugs machine, man … and when
you come into freaking D.C. in November, December, January and you’re playing in the NFC East, dude, you’re going to play
in some crap. So that really helps.” 🏈 Jahan Dotson is penciled in as the punt returner after averaging 13.5 yards per return
with one touchdown in four years at Penn State. Rookie running back Brian Robinson returned kickoffs at Alabama—as point-
less of a job as it sounds—and cornerback Danny Johnson also has experience at kick returner. Alex Erickson, whom the team
signed in late May, could wind up challenging for both jobs. Last year DeAndre Carter handled both for the Commanders, but
he fled to the Chargers in free agency. 🏈 Washington’s poor performance in “hidden special teams” is primarily bad luck
with opposing punters, who had a league-leading 12.7 points of field position above average in gross punting value against
Washington. Only Denver (at altitude) faced a longer average punt than Washington did. Washington opponents also ranked
fifth in field goal value.
 Quarterbacks
O n the following pages, we provide the last three years
of statistics for the top two quarterbacks on each team’s
depth chart, as well as a number of other quarterbacks who
sixth round of the 2000 NFL draft, with the 199th overall pick.
Undrafted free agents are listed as “FA” with the year they
came into the league, even if they were only in training camp
played significant time in 2021. Each quarterback who is cur- or on a practice squad.
rently on a roster also gets a 2022 projection from our KU- To the far right of the first line is the player’s Risk variable
BIAK fantasy football projection system, explained further in for fantasy football in 2022, which measures the likelihood of
the Statistical Toolbox at the front of the book. the player hitting his projection. The default rating for each
It is difficult to accurately project statistics for a 162-game player is Green. As the risk of a player failing to hit his projec-
baseball season, but it is exponentially more difficult to accu- tion rises, he’s given a rating of Yellow or, in the worst cases,
rately project statistics for a 17-game football season because Red. The Risk variable is not only based on age and injury
of the small size of the data samples involved. With that in probability, but how a player’s projection compares to his re-
mind, we ask that you consider the listed projections not as a cent performance as well as our confidence (or lack thereof)
prediction of exact numbers, but the mean of a range of pos- in his offensive teammates.
sible performances. What’s important is not so much the ex- Next, we give the last three years of player stats. The ma-
act number of yards and touchdowns we project, but whether jority of these statistics are passing numbers, although the
or not we’re projecting a given player to improve or decline. shaded five columns on the right are the quarterback’s rushing
Along those same lines, rookie projections will not be as ac- statistics.
curate as veteran projections due to lack of data. The first few columns after the year and team (Tm) the
Our quarterback projections look a bit different from our player played for are standard numbers: games and games
projections for the other skill positions. At running back and started (G/GS), offensive Snaps, pass attempts (Att), pass
wide receiver, second-stringers see plenty of action, but, at completions (Cmp), completion percentage (C%), passing
quarterback, either a player starts or he does not start. We rec- yards (Yds), passing touchdowns (TD). These numbers are
ognize that, when a starting quarterback gets injured in Week official NFL totals and therefore include plays we leave out
8, you don’t want to grab your Football Outsiders Almanac to of our own metrics, such as clock-stopping spikes, and omit
find out if his backup is any good only to find that we’ve pro- plays we include in our metrics, such as sacks and aborted
jected that the guy will throw 12 passes this year. Therefore, snaps. (Other differences between official stats and Football
each year we project all quarterbacks to start all 17 games. If Outsiders stats are described in the “Statistical Toolbox” in-
Tom Brady goes down in November, you can look up Blaine troduction at the front of the book.)
Gabbert, divide the stats by 17, and get an idea of what we The exception among these standard stats is CPOE, or
think he will do in an average week (and then, if you are a Completion Percentage Over Expectation. The probability
Tampa Bay fan, pass out). There are full-season projections of a pass completion is calculated on each play based on nu-
for the top two quarterbacks on all 32 depth charts.You’ll find merous factors such as down and distance and location of the
projections which incorporate the possibility of injury in the pass. There are multiple models of CPOE around the Internet
fantasy appendix on page 470. and the numbers in our book come from our model, which
The first line of each quarterback table contains biographi- removes passes that are marked “Thrown Away,” “Batted
cal data—the player’s name, height, weight, college, draft Down,” “Quarterback Hit in Motion,” or “Miscommunica-
position, birth date, and age. Height and weight are the best tion.” In 2021, Kyler Murray’s actual completion percentage
data we could find; weight, of course, can fluctuate during the was 6.3% higher than his expected completion percentage, the
offseason. Age is very simple: the number of years between best difference in the league. Zach Wilson was last at -10.2%.
the player’s birth year and 2022, but birthdate is provided if The column for interceptions contains two numbers, repre-
you want to figure out exact age. senting the official NFL total for interceptions (Int) as well as
Draft position gives draft year and round, with the overall our own metric for adjusted interceptions (Adj). For example,
pick number with which the player was taken in parentheses. if you look at our sample table, Tom Brady had 12 intercep-
In the sample table, it says that Tom Brady was chosen in the tions and 14 adjusted interceptions in 2020. Adjusted intercep-

Tom Brady Height: 6-4 Weight: 225 College: Michigan Draft: 2000/6 (199) Born: 3-Aug-1977 Age: 45 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NE 16/16 1142 613 373 60.8% -3.8% 4057 24 8/14 4 5.2% 6.1 21 2.4% 17 550 16 26 34 3 22.0% 32 53.7
2020 TB 16/16 1025 610 401 65.7% 1.2% 4633 40 12/14 4 4.2% 7.1 11 25.0% 4 1518 3 30 6 3 -37.5% -22 72.4
2021 TB 17/17 1139 719 485 67.5% 2.0% 5316 43 12/12 4 3.5% 7.0 5 26.5% 2 1892 1 28 81 2 19.9% 39 68.1
2022 TB 711 472 66.4% 5105 37 13 7 6.4 9.6% 32 69 2 -8.5%
2020: 12% Behind 50% Short 21% Mid 17% Deep aDOT: 9.5 (1) YAC: 4.5 (29) ALEX: 2.6 2021: 17% Behind 49% Short 21% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.2 (12) YAC: 5.2 (15) ALEX: 1.9

259
260 QUARTERBACKS

tions use game charting data to add dropped interceptions, plays The shaded five columns on the right contain rushing sta-
where a defender most likely would have had an interception tistics, starting with Runs, rushing yards (Yds), and rushing
but couldn’t hold onto the ball. Then we remove Hail Mary touchdowns (TD). Once again, these are official NFL totals
passes and interceptions thrown on fourth down when losing and include kneeldowns, which means you get to enjoy sta-
in the final two minutes of the game. We also remove “tipped tistics such as Brandon Allen rushing seven times for -1 yard.
interceptions,” when a perfectly catchable ball deflected off the The final two columns give DVOA and DYAR for quarter-
receiver’s hands or chest and into the arms of a defender. back rushing, which are calculated separately from passing.
Overall, adjusted interception rate is higher than standard Rankings for these statistics, as well as numbers that are not
interception rate, so most quarterbacks will have more ad- adjusted for defense (YAR and VOA) can be found on our
justed interceptions than standard interceptions. On average, website, FootballOutsiders.com.
a quarterback will have one additional adjusted interception The last number listed is the Total QBR metric from ESPN
for every 100 pass attempts. Once this difference is accounted Stats & Information. Total QBR is based on the expected
for, adjusted interceptions are a better predictor of next year’s points added by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the
interception total than standard interceptions. numbers to a scale of 0-100. There are four main differences
The next column is fumbles (FUM), which adds together between Total QBR and DVOA:
all fumbles by this player, whether turned over to the defense • Total QBR incorporates information from game chart-
or recovered by the offense (explained in the essay “Pregame ing, such as passes dropped or thrown away on pur-
Show”). Even though this fumble total is listed among the pose.
passing numbers, it includes all fumbles, including those on • Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the
sacks, aborted snaps, and rushing attempts. By listing fumbles quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for
and interceptions next to one another, we’re giving readers example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after
a general idea of how many total turnovers the player was the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive
responsible for. line than others.
Next comes Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR). This is the same • Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts)
statistic you’ll find in the team chapters, only here it is spe- value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in
cific to the individual quarterback. It represents sacks plus high-leverage situations.
intentional grounding calls per pass play (total pass plays • Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into
= pass attempts + sacks) adjusted based on down, distance, one number and differentiates between scrambles and
and strength of schedule. For reference, the NFL average was planned runs.
7.0% in 2019, 6.4% in 2020, and 6.6% in 2021. The italicized row of statistics for the 2022 season is our
The next two columns are Net Yards per Pass (NY/P), a 2022 KUBIAK projection, as detailed above. Again, in the
standard stat but a particularly good one, and the player’s rank interest of producing meaningful statistics, all quarterbacks
(Rk) in Net Yards per Pass for that season. Net Yards per Pass are projected to start a full 17-game season, regardless of the
consists of passing yards minus yards lost on sacks, divided likelihood of them actually doing so.
by total pass plays. The final line below the KUBIAK projection represents
The four columns remaining in passing stats give our ad- data on how far the quarterback throws his passes. First, we
vanced metrics: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Av- break down charted passes based on distance: Behind (any-
erage) and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replace- thing behind the line of scrimmage), Short (0 to 9 yards), Mid
ment), along with the player’s rank in both. These metrics (10 to 19 yards), and Deep (20 or more yards). These numbers
compare each quarterback’s passing performance to league- are based on distance in the air only and include both com-
average or replacement-level baselines based on the game plete and incomplete passes. We also give average depth of
situations that quarterback faced. DVOA and DYAR are also target (aDOT) and average yards after catch (YAC) with the
adjusted based on the opposing defense. The methods used to rank in parentheses for the 34 quarterbacks who qualify. The
compute these numbers are described in detail in the “Statisti- final number listed here is ALEX, which stands for Air Less
cal Toolbox” introduction at the front of the book. The impor- EXpected, and measures the distance of each quarterback’s
tant distinctions between them is that DVOA is a rate statistic, average third-down throw compared to how many yards were
while DYAR is a cumulative statistic. Thus, a higher DVOA needed for a first down. Russell Wilson’s ALEX of 5.5 means
means more value per pass play, while a higher DYAR means his average third-down pass was thrown 5.5 yards deeper than
more aggregate value over the entire season. the sticks, the highest in the league; Sam Darnold had the low-
To qualify for a ranking in Net Yards per Pass, passing est ALEX at -2.2.
DVOA, and passing DYAR in a given season, a quarterback A number of third- and fourth-string quarterbacks are brief-
must have had 200 pass plays in that season. 34 quarterbacks ly discussed at the end of the chapter in a section we call “Go-
are ranked for 2019, 36 for 2020, and 34 for 2021. ing Deep.”
 QUARTERBACKS 261

Top 20 QB by Passing DYAR Top 20 QB by Passing DVOA

(Total Value), 2021 (Value per Pass), 2021
Rank Player Team DYAR Rank Player Team DVOA
1 Tom Brady TB 1,892 1 Aaron Rodgers GB 27.8%
2 Aaron Rodgers GB 1,511 2 Tom Brady TB 26.6%
3 Dak Prescott DAL 1,379 3 Dak Prescott DAL 21.2%
4 Patrick Mahomes KC 1,368 4 Patrick Mahomes KC 18.6%
5 Justin Herbert LAC 1,341 5 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 17.9%
6 Matthew Stafford LAR 1,100 6 Justin Herbert LAC 17.4%
7 Kirk Cousins MIN 954 7 Kyler Murray ARI 15.6%
8 Derek Carr LV 915 8 Kirk Cousins MIN 15.0%
9 Kyler Murray ARI 882 9 Matthew Stafford LAR 14.6%
10 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 855 10 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 9.7%
11 Josh Allen BUF 702 11 Derek Carr LV 9.5%
12 Mac Jones NE 620 12 Russell Wilson SEA 7.5%
13 Joe Burrow CIN 610 13 Mac Jones NE 6.1%
14 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 601 14 Joe Burrow CIN 5.1%
15 Russell Wilson SEA 532 15 Josh Allen BUF 4.9%
16 Carson Wentz IND 461 16 Carson Wentz IND 1.8%
17 Jalen Hurts PHI 319 17 Jalen Hurts PHI -0.3%
18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 280 18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -0.7%
19 Matt Ryan ATL 268 19 Lamar Jackson BAL -2.9%
20 Jared Goff DET 261 20 Jared Goff DET -3.6%
Minimum 200 passes Minimum 200 passes

Brandon Allen Height: 6-2 Weight: 209 College: Arkansas Draft: 2016/6 (201) Born: 5-Sep-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 DEN 3/3 180 84 39 46.4% -12.9% 515 3 2/4 0 9.1% 4.9 -- -30.5% -- -115 -- 10 39 0 41.2% 21 38.1
2020 CIN 5/5 277 142 90 63.4% -4.3% 925 5 4/6 1 5.2% 5.8 -- -23.8% -- -125 -- 13 27 0 -31.8% -14 44.8
2021 CIN 6/1 92 34 17 50.0% -18.9% 149 2 0/1 1 9.9% 3.1 -- -30.4% -- -44 -- 7 -1 0 -22.7% -1 8.4
2022 CIN 573 337 58.8% 3722 25 13 11 5.7 -14.0% 57 112 2 -30.8%
2020: 17% Behind 53% Short 18% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 6.8 (--) YAC: 6.2 (--) ALEX: 1.3 2021: 17% Behind 56% Short 17% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 6.6 (--) YAC: 7.1 (--) ALEX: -3.1

One of the main indicators of Cincinnati’s success in 2021 was that Allen’s lone action came in mop-up duty, instead of start-
ing five games as he was forced to do in 2020. Allen is scarcely adequate even as the blowout guy, and the Bengals would do
well to upgrade at backup quarterback and give that guy some reps just in case. But the team appears to be operating under an
updated version of Tom Moore’s Dictum, coined as a coach in Indianapolis when the Colts had Peyton Manning: “If Joe Bur-
row goes down we’re f*cked, and we don’t practice f*cked.”

Josh Allen Height: 6-5 Weight: 237 College: Wyoming Draft: 2018/1 (7) Born: 21-May-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 BUF 16/16 1010 461 271 58.8% -2.4% 3089 20 9/12 14 8.2% 5.8 28 -11.8% 28 -21 28 109 510 9 6.5% 100 47.3
2020 BUF 16/16 1035 572 396 69.2% 4.6% 4544 37 10/15 9 4.8% 7.3 5 25.9% 3 1460 4 102 421 8 3.0% 74 81.7
2021 BUF 17/17 1161 646 409 63.3% 1.7% 4407 36 15/23 8 4.4% 6.3 16 4.9% 15 705 11 122 763 6 8.8% 137 60.7
2022 BUF 643 433 67.3% 4734 37 14 10 6.5 6.8% 112 671 6 16.4%
2020: 14% Behind 51% Short 22% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.7 (9) YAC: 4.7 (25) ALEX: 2.0 2021: 15% Behind 49% Short 24% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.3 (9) YAC: 4.2 (32) ALEX: 2.3

Allen’s regression from a 25.9% passing DVOA in 2020 to a 4.9% rate last year does not mean he lost his fastball. He was as
good or even better in 2021 in some of the most difficult circumstances where his athleticism makes its biggest difference. His
90.2% DVOA on deep passes effectively matched his 93.1% rate two years ago and landed him in the top 10 in football. And
he improved his passing DVOA from outside the pocket from 9.6% in 2020 to 28.9% in 2021, third best among quarterbacks
262 QUARTERBACKS

with 50 or more attempts out of the pocket.

But while Allen hit plenty of home runs in 2021, he hit many fewer singles and doubles. He DVOA on passes behind the line
of scrimmage slipped from 17.5% to -5.4%. His DVOA from the pocket fell from 52.7% to 19.8%. And his DVOA against man
coverage dropped from 79.9% to 43.6%. That regression doesn’t doom Allen to a future as an average NFL quarterback. But
he is likely the biggest reason the Bills led the league in weekly DVOA volatility, and he’ll need to improve his consistency to
earn the team the home-field playoff advantage their talent level suggests they should have.

Kyle Allen Height: 6-3 Weight: 211 College: Houston Draft: 2018/FA Born: 8-Mar-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 CAR 13/12 897 489 303 62.0% -1.1% 3322 17 16/26 13 9.0% 5.5 32 -22.4% 32 -395 33 32 106 2 -9.0% 4 36.4
2020 WAS 4/4 177 87 60 69.0% 5.3% 610 4 1/1 1 6.9% 6.0 -- -8.0% -- 20 -- 7 26 1 9.7% 7 74.4
2021 WAS 2/0 37 19 12 63.2% -3.6% 120 1 0/0 1 9.7% 5.5 -- 3.3% -- 19 -- 2 11 0 -47.8% -6 24.6
2022 HOU 553 372 67.3% 4119 25 11 10 6.7 -4.0% 46 199 2 -2.1%
2020: 21% Behind 51% Short 21% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 6.2 (--) YAC: 5.4 (--) ALEX: -0.4 2021: 6% Behind 72% Short 17% Mid 6% Deep aDOT: 7.1 (--) YAC: 3.8 (--) ALEX: -3.2

Allen only got into two games in 2021, both against the Dallas Cowboys. The first was as an injury replacement for Taylor
Heinicke, and the second came in the fourth quarter of a Week 16 blowout—the Cowboys led 56-7 when Allen entered the
game. Allen has been able to slide in as a backup who can safely dink and dunk down the field with short passes—his 8-of-10
with a touchdown performance in Week 16 was exactly that. Now in Houston, Allen should have the edge ahead of Jeff Driskel
and Kevin Hogan for the backup job behind Davis Mills.

C.J. Beathard Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: Iowa Draft: 2017/3 (104) Born: 16-Nov-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 SF 6/2 186 104 66 63.5% -1.3% 787 6 0/2 3 7.2% 6.4 -- -1.0% -- 75 -- 6 28 0 1.3% 3 53.4
2021 JAX 2/0 7 2 2 100.0% 40.3% 33 0 0/0 0 0.0% 16.5 -- 238.8% -- 25 -- 1 2 0 -47.7% -2 90.3
2022 JAX 544 324 59.6% 3490 22 18 13 5.7 -23.3% 62 285 3 -5.5%
2020: 8% Behind 62% Short 18% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.3 (--) YAC: 5.2 (--) ALEX: 1.0 2021: 50% Behind 0% Short 0% Mid 50% Deep aDOT: 13.5 (--) YAC: 3.0 (--) ALEX: 21.0

Beathard played sparingly as the backup for the Jaguars in 2021, only throwing two total passes in spot relief duty. He suf-
fered a groin injury and was carted off the practice field at OTAs, but head coach Doug Pederson later said that Beathard should
be fine for training camp. Beathard’s weaknesses include pocket presence and his deep ball. His reasonable stats with the 49ers
in 2020 come with a big Kyle Shanahan asterisk.

Ian Book Height: 6-0 Weight: 206 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2021/4 (133) Born: 30-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 NO 1/1 50 20 12 60.0% -8.6% 135 0 2/2 0 27.4% 2.9 -- -122.8% -- -203 -- 3 6 0 -36.8% -4 2.2
2022 NO 532 330 62.0% 3610 21 15 11 6.0 -16.3% 76 317 3 -8.1%
2021: 17% Behind 61% Short 17% Mid 6% Deep aDOT: 3.8 (--) YAC: 6.8 (--) ALEX: -5.4

Take a look, it’s Ian Book, a passing no-show. Book became the first rookie quarterback to start a game for the Saints since
1997, and he never stood a chance. Book’s -122.8% passing DVOA was the worst among all players with at least 12 pass at-
tempts last season. To be fair to Book, the Saints were swamped with COVID concerns. Twenty-two of Book’s teammates
were out and he was down to his fourth- and fifth-string tackles at one point. It’s really not fair to judge Book by his cover,
considering the circumstances. But the book on Book says he’s undersized, underpowered, and under-athletic for the position,
struggling both with pressure and when playing in structure. And now that we have seen him in action, you don’t have to take
our word for it.
 QUARTERBACKS 263

Tim Boyle Height: 6-4 Weight: 233 College: Eastern Kentucky Draft: 2018/FA Born: 3-Oct-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 GB 3/0 21 4 3 75.0% -3.7% 15 0 0/0 0 -1.9% 3.8 -- 37.2% -- 17 -- 5 -7 0 -- -- 96.4
2020 GB 8/0 22 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0/0 1 97.3% -11.0 -- -666.1% -- -40 -- 13 -9 0 -- -- 0.0
2021 DET 5/3 180 94 61 64.9% -5.6% 526 3 6/6 1 2.0% 5.6 -- -43.0% -- -198 -- 2 13 0 105.7% 8 26.4
2022 DET 581 373 64.2% 3861 23 18 7 5.9 -17.7% 38 117 1 -11.7%
2021: 16% Behind 59% Short 20% Mid 4% Deep aDOT: 6.3 (--) YAC: 4.3 (--) ALEX: -0.8

Boyle is going on Year 7 in the pros and still hasn’t done anything to make people forget his seemingly impossible 1:13
touchdown-to-interception ratio from college. That said, he did finally get to start last season for the first time in his career,
filling in for the injured Jared Goff. And he was a disaster in his three starts, particularly because he could not handle pres-
sure whatsoever, which isn’t too surprising for a heftier quarterback lacking in athleticism and high-end arm strength. Boyle’s
-158.5% DVOA under pressure was the fourth worst among passers with 10 to 199 passes, only better than P.J. Walker, Jake
Fromm, and Kyle Allen. The silver lining for Boyle is that he didn’t make the offensive line’s job any harder, in large part
because he got the ball out fast and threw 75% of his passes within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. He did not take any
sacks in nearly 100 dropbacks the his percentage of plays in which he took a QB hit was nearly identical to starter Jared Goff’s.

Tom Brady Height: 6-4 Weight: 225 College: Michigan Draft: 2000/6 (199) Born: 3-Aug-1977 Age: 45 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NE 16/16 1142 613 373 60.8% -3.8% 4057 24 8/14 4 5.2% 6.1 21 2.4% 17 550 16 26 34 3 22.0% 32 53.7
2020 TB 16/16 1025 610 401 65.7% 1.2% 4633 40 12/14 4 4.2% 7.1 11 25.0% 4 1518 3 30 6 3 -37.5% -22 72.4
2021 TB 17/17 1139 719 485 67.5% 2.0% 5316 43 12/12 4 3.5% 7.0 5 26.5% 2 1892 1 28 81 2 19.9% 39 68.1
2022 TB 711 472 66.4% 5105 37 13 7 6.4 9.6% 32 69 2 -8.5%
2020: 12% Behind 50% Short 21% Mid 17% Deep aDOT: 9.5 (1) YAC: 4.5 (29) ALEX: 2.6 2021: 17% Behind 49% Short 21% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.2 (12) YAC: 5.2 (15) ALEX: 1.9

Don’t believe the hype: Tom Brady is not the oldest starting quarterback in NFL history. John Nesser was listed as the starting
quarterback for the Columbus Panhandles in a September 25, 1921 showdown with the Akron Pros. Never mind that “quarter-
back” was a different position back then and that the Nesser family was a holdover from the barnstorming semi-pro days; at
45 years and five months old, Nesser still holds the record. Brady can add that jewel to his crown if he starts in Week 18 or the
playoffs. Perhaps then, he can finally retire in peace … although he has to wait until 2023 to catch Bobby Marshall for oldest
starter, regardless of position.
Look, you try finding something new to say about Tom Brady as he enters Year 23.

Teddy Bridgewater Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: Louisville Draft: 2014/1 (32) Born: 10-Nov-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NO 9/5 408 196 133 67.9% 2.2% 1384 9 2/1 1 6.4% 6.2 16 15.3% 9 340 20 28 31 0 -32.7% -19 48.9
2020 CAR 15/15 929 492 340 69.1% 3.4% 3733 15 11/18 6 6.4% 6.7 14 2.0% 19 446 18 53 279 5 6.6% 43 64.1
2021 DEN 14/14 844 426 285 66.9% 3.6% 3052 18 7/13 1 7.4% 6.2 17 9.7% 10 601 14 30 106 2 8.8% 32 47.4
2022 MIA 556 367 66.0% 3950 23 12 4 6.3 -3.9% 29 120 2 10.1%
2020: 17% Behind 52% Short 19% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 7.3 (29) YAC: 5.5 (11) ALEX: -0.3 2021: 14% Behind 56% Short 17% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 8.3 (10) YAC: 4.9 (24) ALEX: -0.4

Bridgewater seems like a perfect scheme fit for his new Miami head coach Mike McDaniel, whose Dolphins offense will
likely throw more short passes and see more yards after the catch than most other teams. McDaniel’s 49ers led the league with
6.6 average yards after the catch last season. And Bridgewater has a bottom-10 7.3-yard average depth of target and top-10
66.5% completion rate among quarterbacks with 600 or more attempts since 2014. But something funny happened for Bridge-
water last season. He dramatically increased his aDOT to 8.3 yards, finished seventh among qualified passers with an 81.8%
passing DVOA on the intermediate passes he rarely used to throw, and set a new career high with a 9.7% passing DVOA. Last
season’s Bridgewater was a top-10 quarterback, and he could push for the Dolphins starting job if Tua Tagovailoa fails to take
another step forward this season.
264 QUARTERBACKS

Jacoby Brissett Height: 6-4 Weight: 235 College: North Carolina State Draft: 2016/3 (91) Born: 11-Dec-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Red

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 IND 15/15 961 447 272 60.9% -2.6% 2942 18 6/8 7 5.8% 5.9 24 2.6% 16 414 19 56 228 4 10.1% 57 50.1
2020 IND 11/0 48 8 2 25.0% -42.1% 17 0 0/0 0 30.6% 0.2 -- -135.2% -- -68 -- 17 19 3 18.0% 27 66.2
2021 MIA 11/5 376 225 141 62.7% -2.1% 1283 5 4/7 6 8.9% 4.7 32 -22.9% 31 -195 30 19 70 1 -2.6% 12 48.2
2022 CLE 561 373 66.5% 3878 22 12 13 6.1 -11.3% 67 230 4 -14.7%
2020: 14% Behind 57% Short 14% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 9.4 (--) YAC: 9.0 (--) ALEX: 4.0 2021: 13% Behind 57% Short 19% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (18) YAC: 3.6 (34) ALEX: 2.2

Freed from his role as Surprise Goal-Line Quarterback in Indy, Brissett went back to his roots in Miami: taking way too
many sacks, throwing some baffling picks, and fumbling. He won a game against Tyrod Taylor’s Texans in which he threw two
picks, fumbled once, and was sacked four times. Cleveland brought him in as Deshaun Watson’s backup, which means he is
now their presumed starter with Watson likely to be suspended for most or all of the 2022 season. The Browns are a good fit
for Brissett’s talents in that they can make him a one-read passer and feature him in read-option packages. Just don’t ask him
to lead a comeback victory.

Joe Burrow Height: 6-3 Weight: 221 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2020/1 (1) Born: 10-Dec-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 CIN 10/10 709 404 264 65.3% 0.2% 2688 13 5/10 9 7.3% 5.7 28 -7.3% 23 108 23 37 142 3 -31.8% -43 56.5
2021 CIN 16/16 1008 520 366 70.4% 5.4% 4611 34 14/17 5 9.1% 7.5 2 5.1% 14 609 13 40 118 2 -23.9% -24 54.3
2022 CIN 602 428 71.1% 5020 32 14 7 7.5 10.9% 52 176 2 -7.0%
2020: 10% Behind 54% Short 25% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 8.6 (11) YAC: 4.3 (31) ALEX: 1.6 2021: 12% Behind 54% Short 20% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.3 (11) YAC: 6.2 (3) ALEX: 0.6

Burrow was mired in 24th place among all quarterbacks with 184 DYAR as late as Week 15. Then he tore apart Baltimore
and Kansas City in back-to-back games, his last two of the regular season. As covered in the Bengals chapter, our methods
were something of an outlier when it came to underappreciating Cincinnati’s passing attack. But it is fair to point out where
the numbers show room for improvement. To wit: Burrow’s -27.3% DVOA in the red zone was the worst of all quarterbacks
with at least 60 attempts except Trevor Lawrence (and it’s not solely due to the 99-yard pick-six he threw to Denzel Ward in
late October).
Burrow also struggled from under center, with a DVOA of -20.0%, far worse than when he was in shotgun (9.8%). (Over-
all, the Bengals averaged 6.8 yards per play in shotgun, first in the NFL, but just 4.7 under center). This was partially due to
mobility struggles early in the season while his surgically repaired knee remained a bit balky. The former all-state point guard
has preferred the “shotgun snap, scan, and distribute” style since his days at LSU, a large reason why the Bengals went with
an empty backfield more than any team except the Rams. But for most of 2021 his dropbacks were a bit slow, and he seemed
trepidatious on play-action passes. It’s not like Burrow was jumpy in the pocket, however—he thrived when blitzed, with a
40.8% DVOA and 8.2 yards per play when faced with five pass-rushers or more. And he turned deep passing from weakness to
outright strength—he leapt from -9 DYAR and -14.2% DVOA on 20-plus-yard throws as a rookie to 468 DYAR and 103.3%
DVOA in 2021. The bombs were an important factor in offsetting the many sacks Burrow took, a push-pull that encapsulated
Cincinnati’s season. Full confidence in his knee (and the Bengals’ improved offensive line) would probably indicate a more
balanced scheme for 2022, but if it wasn’t the case before, it certainly is now—whatever Burrow wants, Burrow gets.

Derek Carr Height: 6-3 Weight: 210 College: Fresno State Draft: 2014/2 (36) Born: 3/28/1991 Age: 31 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 OAK 16/16 1014 513 361 70.4% 6.1% 4054 21 8/9 7 6.0% 7.2 9 18.7% 8 1064 6 27 82 2 -60.6% -49 62.2
2020 LV 16/16 1006 517 348 67.3% 2.1% 4103 27 9/10 11 5.4% 7.3 6 14.0% 9 925 7 39 140 3 -10.8% 3 71.2
2021 LV 17/17 1127 626 428 68.4% 3.6% 4804 23 14/18 13 6.7% 6.9 7 9.5% 11 915 8 40 108 0 -45.6% -54 52.4
2022 LV 621 424 68.3% 4669 27 14 13 6.7 5.6% 43 140 1 -16.9%
2020: 13% Behind 54% Short 19% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 8.5 (13) YAC: 5.6 (8) ALEX: 4.4 2021: 16% Behind 49% Short 21% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 8.6 (6) YAC: 5.3 (12) ALEX: 4.1

Carr attempted 90 deep passes (20-plus air yards), the second-highest total in the NFL behind Tom Brady in 2021. Think
about that for a moment: the unassuming Carr, with DeSean Jackson as the closest thing on the roster to a deep threat for half
the year, threw more deep passes than Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, or Josh Allen.
Carr ranked 12th in the NFL with a 40.7% completion rate on deep balls, 10th in yards per attempt at 13.9 and eighth in
 QUARTERBACKS 265

DVOA at 94.5%. (League-average DVOA on deep balls was 57.9%.) Those numbers don’t sound scintillating, but factor in
both his high attempt total and the Raiders’ strength of schedule and Carr finished first in DYAR on 20-plus-yard passes. He
also led the NFL with 324 yards on 13 defensive pass interference penalties, as both Cowboys and Chargers fans ruefully recall.
It’s easy to mistake Carr for a capybara who calms high-strung offensive geniuses such as Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels
by his mere presence. Carr has clearly been more than that for most of his career. Davante Adams may not turn Carr into a
champion or an MVP candidate, but he does give Carr a chance to be something more than a placeholder in the eyes of national
fans and the subject of trade rumors after every Raiders loss.

Matt Corral Height: 6-1 Weight: 205 College: Mississippi Draft: 2022/3 (94) Born: 31-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2022 CAR 534 333 62.4% 3544 18 14 10 5.9 -23.1% 51 268 3 5.4%

Corral’s success in the pros will have a lot to do with the offense he’s placed in. He thrived in Lane Kiffin’s RPO-heavy of-
fense at Ole Miss, which allowed Corral to use his big arm, mobility, and quick decision-making skills to distribute the ball
quickly—more Russell Westbrook than Russell Wilson. As our Derrik Klassen points out, Corral was more reliant on play-
action and RPOs than even RPO king Tua Tagovailoa, so we have little to no idea about Corral’s ability to process defenses
at an NFL level. He’s a JUGS machine that can fake a handoff, and one not yet ready to run an pro-style offense. Corral has
flashed potential that can be developed, however, and a patient coaching staff may be able to take his skill set and develop him
into a good starter.
For the record, the Panthers were 12th with 97 RPOs last season and 20th with 121 play-action passes. Ben McAdoo’s Giants
teams didn’t use very many RPOs, depriving us all a chance to witness Eli Manning’s athleticism.

Kirk Cousins Height: 6-3 Weight: 202 College: Michigan State Draft: 2012/4 (102) Born: 19-Aug-1988 Age: 34 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 MIN 15/15 982 444 307 69.1% 6.2% 3603 26 6/8 10 7.0% 7.2 8 14.3% 10 795 7 31 63 1 -19.8% -9 58.4
2020 MIN 16/16 1082 516 349 67.6% 4.6% 4265 35 13/12 9 7.7% 7.3 7 12.0% 10 837 9 32 156 1 26.3% 57 63.3
2021 MIN 16/16 1087 561 372 66.3% 3.1% 4221 33 7/13 12 4.7% 6.9 8 15.0% 8 954 7 29 115 1 1.2% 14 52.3
2022 MIN 615 409 66.5% 4768 35 11 12 6.9 8.5% 31 125 1 -1.7%
2020: 14% Behind 53% Short 21% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.2 (16) YAC: 5.5 (10) ALEX: 1.4 2021: 16% Behind 49% Short 19% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 8.4 (8) YAC: 4.9 (23) ALEX: 2.4

Every Cousins season feels like he is getting to the same production range through slightly different means. As for 2021’s
slight stylistic changes, Cousins’ time to throw dropped by about 0.12 seconds according to Next Gen Stats, going from near the
top of the league to about average. He did a better job of getting the ball out before pressure could become an issue, as it often
did with that offensive line. Cousins also earned a 63% success rate against six or more rushers, which ranked third behind only
Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. When pressure did get to him, Cousins played more calm and collected than usual,
particularly from the pocket. Cousins was better at sticking to his guns, hanging onto the ball, and making a tough throw with
a defender inches away from taking his chin strap off. Because of how often he was pressured and how outgunned the Vikings
were in some games, the production doesn’t agree with his improved play on film, but so it goes.
One thing that has remained consistent with Cousins is his success versus man coverage compared to zone. In each of the
past three years, Cousins has been better against man coverage by at least 33.4% DVOA. That tracks perfectly, considering
Cousins is a very timely and accurate passer (to beat man coverage), but sometimes relies too heavily on pre-snap looks and
misses zone defenders over the middle.

Andy Dalton Height: 6-2 Weight: 220 College: TCU Draft: 2011/2 (35) Born: 29-Oct-1987 Age: 35 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 CIN 13/13 927 528 314 59.5% -3.7% 3494 16 14/21 8 6.7% 5.8 27 -10.6% 26 19 26 32 73 4 -7.7% 7 40.1
2020 DAL 11/9 619 333 216 64.9% -1.5% 2170 14 8/12 2 6.8% 5.5 29 -16.7% 30 -136 29 28 114 0 5.2% 24 54.0
2021 CHI 8/6 412 236 149 63.1% -1.9% 1515 8 9/10 1 7.1% 5.4 28 -21.2% 30 -165 29 16 76 0 -6.1% 4 33.6
2022 NO 544 359 66.0% 3793 22 16 5 6.2 -10.8% 56 242 1 -0.3%
2020: 15% Behind 57% Short 19% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 7.0 (30) YAC: 4.8 (22) ALEX: 2.2 2021: 17% Behind 50% Short 25% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 7.2 (31) YAC: 5.0 (18) ALEX: -0.4
266 QUARTERBACKS

Dalton had 10.1% DVOA on plays without pressure, the worst of any qualified quarterback in 2021. Dalton threw six of his
nine interceptions from a clean pocket, or one every 27 passes. That, too, was the worst in the league. Dalton blended a high
rate of turnovers and sacks with a conservative, dink-and-dunk mentality, and never provided the high floor Matt Nagy was
hoping for while Justin Fields developed. Dalton does project better as a backup, with a better supporting cast and offensive
philosophy around him in New Orleans. At any rate, he’s an upgrade over Blake Bortles. Just don’t expect any magic from the
Red Rifle if he’s forced into action.

Chase Daniel Height: 6-0 Weight: 229 College: Missouri Draft: 2009/FA Born: 7-Oct-1986 Age: 36 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 CHI 3/1 131 64 45 70.3% 0.7% 435 3 2/2 0 9.8% 5.5 -- -13.2% -- -9 -- 6 6 0 -38.3% -10 57.6
2020 DET 4/0 65 43 29 67.4% -0.3% 264 1 2/3 0 7.1% 5.2 -- -23.5% -- -36 -- 2 16 0 57.0% 5 20.6
2021 LAC 1/0 5 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 0.0% 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- 2 -2 0 -- -- --
2022 LAC 561 371 66.1% 4032 26 13 7 6.4 -2.8% 30 113 1 0.7%
2020: 10% Behind 65% Short 18% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 6.5 (--) YAC: 4.1 (--) ALEX: 2.8

Per OverTheCap.com, Daniel has earned $20.8 million in base salary, $7.3 million in signing bonuses, and a little over $5
million in other bonuses through a 12-year, 261-throw NFL career. That’s not as much money as you expected, is it? Didn’t
Daniel sign as the Bears starter for $55 million sometime in the late 2010s? No, you are confusing Daniel with Mike Glennon.
Daniel will earn $2 million to be Justin Herbert’s sounding board and study partner, and it’s neither a bad gig for Daniel nor
an exorbitant expense for the Chargers. Should Herbert miss any extended time, the Chargers would likely give Daniel one
courtesy start before they audition Easton Stick and/or just give up.

Sam Darnold Height: 6-3 Weight: 225 College: USC Draft: 2018/1 (3) Born: 5-Jun-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Red

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NYJ 13/13 853 441 273 61.9% 0.5% 3024 19 13/15 11 7.2% 6.0 23 -20.4% 31 -290 32 33 62 2 -20.1% -7 43.6
2020 NYJ 12/12 739 364 217 59.6% -3.5% 2208 9 11/19 4 8.8% 5.0 34 -32.2% 33 -540 35 37 217 2 35.3% 72 40.7
2021 CAR 12/11 771 406 243 59.9% -5.2% 2527 9 13/16 9 8.6% 5.2 31 -31.6% 33 -558 33 48 222 5 10.2% 55 33.2
2022 CAR 626 401 64.1% 4155 20 18 15 5.9 -22.6% 76 349 3 -8.7%
2020: 15% Behind 48% Short 25% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.0 (20) YAC: 5.3 (15) ALEX: 1.5 2021: 17% Behind 52% Short 20% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 7.3 (30) YAC: 5.7 (5) ALEX: -2.2

Finally freed from the prospect-killing Adam Gase, the world got to see the real Sam Darnold in 2021. The problem is, the
real Sam Darnold isn’t very good either. While David Tepper and Matt Rhule go on about Darnold’s incredible skills, the fact
of the matter is that Darnold is the same player he was when he left USC. He’s inconsistent from down-to-down, with a poor
throwing windup and bad footwork. He struggles to go through his progressions, and makes bad, turnover-worthy throws on a
regular basis. In short, he has yet to show any sign that he should be a starting NFL quarterback, and after four years and three
different coaching staffs, that’s more than enough to call it. And it’s not just bad work under pressure; his DVOA of 15.1% in
clean pockets was third worst in the league. His -22.6% DVOA on deep passes was last in the league by a mile, and well below
the league average of 55.4%.

Justin Fields Height: 6-3 Weight: 228 College: Ohio State Draft: 2021/1 (11) Born: 5-Mar-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 CHI 12/10 635 270 159 58.9% -4.0% 1870 7 10/11 12 11.3% 5.3 30 -28.4% 32 -324 31 72 420 2 -14.6% -8 26.4
2022 CHI 530 334 63.0% 3648 20 15 23 6.1 -25.5% 134 785 4 -14.2%
2021: 8% Behind 51% Short 24% Mid 17% Deep aDOT: 10.2 (2) YAC: 4.3 (31) ALEX: 0.4

On the surface, Fields’ rookie season looks like a disaster from a statistical perspective. With a little digging, though, there are
some encouraging signs to be found for the former Buckeyes star. For one, Fields was pretty solid for a rookie when not pres-
sured, and non-pressured play tends to be more stable than pressured play. Fields threw for 7.9 yards per pass without pressure,
which was above the league average and the highest mark among the 2021 rookies. His 38.3% DVOA without pressure was
a tick below average, but that’s fine for a rookie, and it was still the second-best figure among first-year passers, trailing only
Mac Jones. Granted, he was pressured at the highest rate in the NFL, part of which is his fault for being inclined to hold onto
 QUARTERBACKS 267

the ball and search for big plays, and he produced quite poorly when pressured. Hopefully some of that can regress to the mean.
Fields’ other notable split is how much higher he ranked among starters the further he threw the ball. His -4.5% DVOA on
short passes was the only negative figure in the league among qualifying passers. On medium passes, his DVOA climbed up
to 44.0%, which was respectable but still below average. Fields shined most on deep passes, earning an above-average 63.6%
DVOA, which is hardly surprising given his booming arm strength and unwavering aggression. Time will tell if Chicago’s new
coaching staff can better unlock Fields’ strengths and help mitigate some of his weaknesses.

Joe Flacco Height: 6-6 Weight: 245 College: Delaware Draft: 2008/1 (18) Born: 16-Jan-1985 Age: 37 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 DEN 8/8 537 262 171 65.3% 2.3% 1822 6 5/6 8 9.7% 5.8 29 -18.8% 29 -144 29 12 20 0 -9.3% 1 48.7
2020 NYJ 5/4 250 134 74 55.2% -3.3% 864 6 3/5 1 5.4% 5.5 -- -10.9% -- 2 -- 6 22 0 -44.6% -11 57.9
2021 2TM 2/1 66 42 27 64.3% 9.5% 338 3 0/0 1 6.1% 7.2 -- 20.1% -- 98 -- 2 3 0 -44.4% -4 43.5
2022 NYJ 597 385 64.5% 4190 28 13 9 6.2 -9.1% 29 91 1 -11.2%
2020: 4% Behind 59% Short 17% Mid 20% Deep aDOT: 11.0 (--) YAC: 4.6 (--) ALEX: 4.0 2021: 8% Behind 59% Short 19% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (--) YAC: 6.5 (--) ALEX: 7.0

There was a stretch where things looked dire for Cool Joe’s career, but Flacco has aged somewhat gracefully into a role as an
NFL backup. Flacco was at the very least competent with the Jets in 2020, eventually signing with Philadelphia the following
offseason. He never had the opportunity to take a snap with the Eagles because the Jets traded to get him back following Zach
Wilson’s injury. He re-signed with New York in March to provide elite backup play.

Nick Foles Height: 6-6 Weight: 243 College: Arizona Draft: 2012/3 (88) Born: 20-Jan-1989 Age: 33 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 JAX 4/4 188 117 77 65.8% 2.4% 736 3 2/3 2 7.1% 5.5 -- -21.3% -- -77 -- 4 23 0 26.7% 7 33.6
2020 CHI 9/7 496 312 202 64.7% -0.5% 1852 10 8/17 2 6.0% 5.1 33 -16.3% 29 -112 28 16 1 1 -31.8% -7 43.6
2021 CHI 1/1 74 35 24 68.6% -0.9% 250 1 0/0 1 11.7% 5.9 -- 9.1% -- 46 -- 4 8 0 -18.6% -1 45.6
2022 IND 578 372 64.4% 4052 23 13 10 6.2 -9.2% 57 145 2 -22.1%
2020: 14% Behind 55% Short 15% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 8.3 (15) YAC: 3.5 (36) ALEX: 0.2 2021: 20% Behind 54% Short 11% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 7.0 (--) YAC: 6.9 (--) ALEX: -3.6

Foles hardly played in 2021, starting just one game as the third-string option behind Justin Fields and Andy Dalton. Foles’
2020 season, in which he started seven games for the Bears, is more informative about his current form. As far as distributing
the ball to all levels of the field, Foles was fine as both a short and deep passer, but his passing to the intermediate section was
dreadful. Foles posted the fifth-worst DVOA on passes in the 10-19 yard range in 2020, which is a bit surprising for a player
who used to feast, relatively, with in-breakers over the middle. Part of the problem came operating against zone coverage,
which can be partly construed as a play-calling issue from Matt Nagy. Foles’ DVOA against zone coverage in 2020 was eighth
worst while his yards per pass was second to last.
Foles’ best trait was his ability to handle pressure and still take chances, which tracks perfectly with the version of Foles
we saw win a Super Bowl. Foles’ 2020 DVOA when pressured was better than the league average despite being pressured on
30.3% of dropbacks, seventh most in the league. We’re probably past the point where Foles can be a useful starter again, but as
a backup on a team with some jump-ball guys to help facilitate Foles’ best traits, he can be a nice addition.

Jake Fromm Height: 6-2 Weight: 220 College: Georgia Draft: 2020/5 (167) Born: 30-Jul-1998 Age: 24 Risk: N/A

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 NYG 3/2 113 60 27 45.0% -18.3% 210 1 3/3 2 9.6% 2.7 -- -88.3% -- -328 -- 8 65 0 11.7% 12 15.4
2021: 17% Behind 52% Short 17% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 7.4 (--) YAC: 3.7 (--) ALEX: 0.0

After three listless Mike Glennon starts in December, the Giants shrugged and all but came right out and said, “It can’t get
any worse.” They were wrong. Jake Fromm, signed off the Bills practice squad earlier in the month, crashed and burned against
the Eagles in Week 16, the first start of his career. The former University of Georgia star completed only six of his 17 passes
for 25 yards and an interception (nearly two) before coach Joe Judge mercifully turned back to Glennon in the third quarter.
If Fromm never takes another snap—he remains unsigned at publication—he will have the unfortunate distinction of being
involved in arguably the two saddest play calls in NFL history. In the second quarter of the Giants’ season finale, Judge ordered
268 QUARTERBACKS

consecutive quarterback sneaks. Not on third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 but on second-and-11 from the Giants’ own 2-yard line
and third-and-9 from their own 4.

Blaine Gabbert Height: 6-4 Weight: 235 College: Missouri Draft: 2011/1 (10) Born: 15-Oct-1989 Age: 33 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 TB 4/0 49 16 9 56.3% 3.1% 143 2 0/0 1 7.4% 8.0 -- -0.1% -- 13 -- 9 16 0 -20.5% -1 60.9
2021 TB 6/0 44 11 7 63.6% 2.8% 67 0 0/0 0 5.1% 4.4 -- 0.0% -- 9 -- 9 -7 0 -- -- 31.2
2022 TB 585 369 63.1% 4017 26 13 7 6.1 -4.6% 6 14 0 7.1%
2020: 25% Behind 31% Short 25% Mid 19% Deep aDOT: 8.5 (--) YAC: 8.9 (--) ALEX: -4.8 2021: 36% Behind 27% Short 18% Mid 18% Deep aDOT: 7.5 (--) YAC: 4.9 (--) ALEX: 5.6

Bruce Arians called Blaine Gabbert “the most underrated player in the NFL” this offseason. Bless. No. If Gabbert is still
QB2 on the roster this season, that means 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask hasn’t developed, leaving Gabbert as the best
option should Tom Brady miss time. It is impressive that Gabbert has turned a first-round bust into a 12-year career as a backup,
becoming a trusted hand in Byron Leftwich’s offense both in Arizona and Tampa Bay. But there was less than a zero percent
chance the Buccaneers would have seriously gone into 2022 with Gabbert as their starting passer, Brady or no Brady.

Jimmy Garoppolo Height: 6-2 Weight: 225 College: Eastern Illinois Draft: 2014/2 (62) Born: 11-Feb-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Blue

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 SF 16/16 1079 476 329 69.1% 1.2% 3978 27 13/17 10 7.0% 7.3 6 10.8% 11 724 12 46 62 1 -18.0% -9 58.8
2020 SF 6/6 305 140 94 67.1% -3.7% 1096 7 5/5 2 6.4% 6.7 -- 9.3% -- 198 -- 10 25 0 -17.4% -2 61.4
2021 SF 15/15 913 441 301 68.3% 1.2% 3810 20 12/19 8 6.7% 7.7 1 17.9% 5 854 10 38 51 3 -23.7% -20 53.3
2022 SF 503 335 66.6% 4136 24 14 11 7.4 1.6% 57 101 3 -29.2%
2020: 20% Behind 49% Short 23% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 6.4 (--) YAC: 7.6 (--) ALEX: 1.4 2021: 14% Behind 52% Short 25% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 7.7 (24) YAC: 6.5 (1) ALEX: 0.2

While Garoppolo’s future remains in limbo because of his offseason shoulder surgery, he certainly put on a strong audition
in 2021 for a team seeking competence at the quarterback position. Garoppolo has finished with above-average production in
each of the two seasons where he attempted enough passes to qualify for our rankings (2019 and 2021), and a team in desperate
need of quarterback help could definitely find his services useful if they want to upgrade from bad to competent. He may not
be good enough to carry a team to a Super Bowl on the strength of his own play without a very strong roster around him, but
he has certainly shown enough over the course of his career that he would be an improvement for, say, Carolina as they grasp
at straws to contend. Teams have talked themselves into worse quarterbacks as starters worth investing in, so even if he does
not have a lengthy career in any one stop, he should still fit in as an overqualified bridge quarterback assuming a full return to
health with his shoulder.

Mike Glennon Height: 6-7 Weight: 225 College: North Carolina State Draft: 2013/3 (73) Born: 12-Dec-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 OAK 2/0 23 10 6 60.0% 5.0% 56 1 0/0 3 0.6% 5.6 -- -20.2% -- -6 -- 2 0 0 -262.0% -9 23.7
2020 JAX 5/5 288 179 111 62.0% -2.6% 1072 7 5/8 2 6.7% 5.3 -- -19.8% -- -105 -- 6 17 0 -85.3% -28 37.0
2021 NYG 6/4 315 167 90 53.9% -10.0% 790 4 10/15 6 4.9% 4.2 -- -59.2% -- -539 -- 7 33 1 -43.5% -12 11.9
2020: 14% Behind 50% Short 23% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.3 (--) YAC: 3.6 (--) ALEX: 1.0 2021: 18% Behind 52% Short 20% Mid 10% Deep aDOT: 7.4 (--) YAC: 4.6 (--) ALEX: 1.5

Glennon became the first quarterback since Matt Moore in 2010 to throw at least 10 interceptions in fewer than 200 passes.
Usually, NFL teams don’t let bad quarterbacks continue to throw, but the Giants had no one else to turn to after Daniel Jones
sustained a neck injury in late November. They tried Jake Fromm for a spell, but that backfired so badly they crawled back to
Glennon. If only there had been a way to anticipate such a disaster…
Clearly, former general manager Dave Gettleman only consulted the “four computer folks” the organization hired in 2019
when he needed help opening email attachments. This might be the end of the road for Glennon, who has earned almost $30
million over his nine-year career. Not bad for a guy who has produced a total of -537 DYAR.
 QUARTERBACKS 269

Jared Goff Height: 6-4 Weight: 223 College: California Draft: 2016/1 (1) Born: 14-Oct-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 LAR 16/16 1120 626 394 62.9% -0.3% 4638 22 16/20 10 3.7% 6.9 12 2.0% 18 552 15 33 40 2 -36.7% -32 48.5
2020 LAR 15/15 1047 552 370 67.0% 1.2% 3952 20 13/18 7 4.3% 6.6 17 -1.1% 22 385 20 51 99 4 -14.8% -6 58.5
2021 DET 14/14 918 494 332 67.2% 0.7% 3245 19 8/14 9 6.3% 5.6 26 -3.6% 20 260 20 17 87 0 -80.8% -60 39.5
2022 DET 592 406 68.6% 4320 25 12 9 6.5 -2.5% 20 66 1 -6.0%
2020: 15% Behind 58% Short 17% Mid 10% Deep aDOT: 6.6 (33) YAC: 5.8 (5) ALEX: 1.6 2021: 16% Behind 56% Short 18% Mid 10% Deep aDOT: 6.6 (34) YAC: 5.3 (13) ALEX: -1.8

Goff is an easy target after hamstringing the Rams’ ceiling and being shipped off to rot in Detroit, but truthfully, he isn’t that
bad. He’s fine. The problems with Goff are less his overall production, but rather how it happens. When things are clean and
clear, Goff can play decent ball. Goff was solidly above average by DVOA on non-pressured dropbacks every year with Sean
McVay, and was only slightly below average last season at 32.7% despite a poor cast of receivers and no Frank Ragnow.
Goff isn’t a playmaker, though, neither by volume nor execution. Without McVay around to mandate deep throws and no
great receivers on the other end of his passes, Goff’s average depth of target plummeted to 6.6 yards, second to last among
qualifiers. He was also the worst passer in the league outside the pocket, which is hardly a surprise if you have ever seen Goff
try to throw the ball on the run on anything but designed bootlegs. Likewise, Goff posted a horrid -32.6% DVOA on third and
fourth downs last year, another split that makes perfect sense now that Goff is in a situation where he is being asked to be the
lifeforce of the offense, not just a distributor. An improved situation should bring about a boost in Goff’s production on standard
downs and when things are clean, but he still has to prove more as a playmaker if he ever wants to change the perception of him.

Taylor Heinicke Height: 6-1 Weight: 210 College: Old Dominion Draft: 2015/FA Born: 15-Mar-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 WAS 1/0 25 19 12 63.2% -1.1% 137 1 0/3 0 6.8% 6.5 -- 12.7% -- 33 -- 3 22 0 42.5% 8 48.3
2021 WAS 16/15 1019 494 321 65.0% -0.8% 3419 20 15/25 7 7.8% 5.9 22 -5.7% 22 184 22 60 313 1 5.7% 45 39.9
2022 WAS 568 366 64.4% 3972 24 16 9 6.2 -14.5% 64 325 2 0.8%
2020: 5% Behind 42% Short 26% Mid 26% Deep aDOT: 13.4 (--) YAC: 4.1 (--) ALEX: -1.5 2021: 19% Behind 46% Short 21% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 7.8 (22) YAC: 5.4 (8) ALEX: 1.8

It wasn’t bad for a total non-prospect who got his first real chance to start at 28, really. Heinicke’s major problem is that he
will hold the ball forever. His 2.97-second average time to throw was fourth-highest among qualified starters per NFL Next Gen
Stats, and while he has some innate playmaking ability, he also dragged a decent Football Team offensive line down to 24th
in adjusted sack rate. Despite all that, nothing hurt Heinicke’s raw stats more than Washington’s short game: he had a -25.2%
DVOA on 89 targets to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. Throwing to every other area of the field, Heinicke delivered at
least a 29.3% DVOA. Heinicke absolutely showed enough last year to qualify as a quality backup. Based on the recent history
of Carson Wentz, that’s a good thing for the Commanders to have. Heinicke will be a free agent after the season and figures to
command $3 million to $5 million a year if healthy.

Chad Henne Height: 6-3 Weight: 222 College: Michigan Draft: 2008/2 (57) Born: 2-Jul-1985 Age: 37 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 KC 3/1 75 38 28 73.7% 1.4% 248 2 0/0 2 6.2% 6.1 -- 22.3% -- 89 -- 7 -2 1 -113.9% -33 32.7
2021 KC 4/0 31 16 11 68.8% 2.7% 82 0 0/0 2 0.6% 5.1 -- 15.9% -- 33 -- 8 0 0 -208.3% -34 69.2
2022 KC 587 396 67.5% 4272 26 13 9 6.5 -0.9% 29 59 1 -19.4%
2020: 32% Behind 49% Short 14% Mid 5% Deep aDOT: 4.2 (--) YAC: 7.1 (--) ALEX: -5.1 2021: 7% Behind 60% Short 33% Mid 0% Deep aDOT: 7.8 (--) YAC: 2.2 (--) ALEX: 1.0

Henne mopped up the fourth quarter of an October loss to the Titans after Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared in
the moment to be a frightening injury; all of Henne’s 16 passes, 11 completions, and 82 yards in 2021 came in one pointless
fourth-quarter drive in a 27-3 defeat. Henne’s back on a one-year deal because he knows the offense and the Chiefs can’t af-
ford anyone better. Henne’s shining career moment will always be his 5-yard pass on fourth-and-1 to Tyreek Hill to preserve a
Chiefs victory in the 2020 playoffs. Hill is gone, and the Chiefs offense may no longer be equipped to make a creaky backup
look like a hero anymore.
270 QUARTERBACKS

Justin Herbert Height: 6-6 Weight: 237 College: Oregon Draft: 2020/1 (6) Born: 10-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 LAC 15/15 1096 595 396 66.6% 0.0% 4336 31 10/14 8 6.0% 6.6 16 10.2% 11 861 8 55 234 5 -23.2% -29 69.7
2021 LAC 17/17 1191 672 443 65.9% 0.8% 5014 38 15/15 1 5.0% 6.8 9 17.4% 6 1341 5 63 302 3 18.9% 91 65.6
2022 LAC 663 452 68.2% 5020 37 13 4 6.8 10.7% 69 312 4 10.7%
2020: 19% Behind 50% Short 19% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 7.6 (26) YAC: 5.6 (9) ALEX: 1.2 2021: 13% Behind 57% Short 20% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 7.7 (23) YAC: 5.4 (9) ALEX: 2.5

Herbert is an outstanding young quarterback, of course, as outlined in the Chargers team chapter. He also pushes all the but-
tons from an engagement and marketability standpoint. He’s well-known without being overexposed, having played just five
prime-time games so far in his career, two of them Thursday-nighters. That means Herbert is still being introduced to many
casual sports fans. For the hardcore crowd, Herbert arrived in the NFL with an underdog narrative because anonymous scouts
reportedly didn’t trust his leadership or passion. That makes Herbert a tall white quarterback who also gets anti-establishment
cred: something for everyone! Herbert has only played in one “big game” (Week 18 against the Raiders), and while the Char-
gers lost, he played well enough to forestall any “can’t win the big name” narratives.
In short, we’re dealing with a blank slate for mythmaking, a player who inspires both legitimate optimism and over-the-top
hype, making it tricky to strike the proper tone when writing about him. Herbert’s a safe fantasy QB1, a worthy runner-up to
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (along with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers) at +1000 for the MVP award at press time, and a
player we will most assuredly be talking a lot about for the rest of the 2020s. Anything beyond that is, frankly, beyond the scope
of the players’ comments in Football Outsiders Almanac.

Taysom Hill Height: 6-2 Weight: 221 College: Brigham Young Draft: 2017/FA Born: 23-Aug-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NO 16/5 242 6 3 50.0% 4.1% 55 0 0/0 0 14.4% 6.6 -- 4.2% -- 6 -- 27 156 1 -7.5% 7 83.9
2020 NO 16/8 472 121 88 72.7% 3.5% 928 4 2/3 10 10.4% 6.2 -- -19.0% -- -69 -- 87 457 8 -11.8% 2 58.7
2021 NO 12/9 431 134 78 58.2% -6.1% 978 4 5/7 2 7.2% 6.4 -- -10.1% -- 9 -- 70 374 5 1.1% 54 42.5
2020: 19% Behind 48% Short 25% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 7.1 (--) YAC: 4.2 (--) ALEX: -1.6 2021: 11% Behind 60% Short 16% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 7.6 (--) YAC: 6.7 (--) ALEX: 0.5

Our long, national nightmare is over—Hill is now focusing on playing tight end rather than being Sean Payton’s increas-
ingly confusing quarterback prospect. For a gadget player, Hill’s an excellent quarterback, and lining him up in the backfield in
goal-line and short-yardage situations gives the Saints’ offense options and possibilities other teams simply do not have. He’s a
very solid blocker for his size, a capable receiver, and a valuable member of any special teams group. But as a passer, his lack
of accuracy and pocket sense just makes him too unreliable to trust. His 21.1% DVOA without pressure would have been fifth
worst in the league had he qualified. He did do a better job last season avoiding sacks when pressured, but that just replaced
sacks with short, off-target throws that didn’t do much for the New Orleans offense. Relieved of his passing duties, Hill might
be able to bulk back up and be the very, very rich man’s Tim Tebow. Hill’s KUBIAK projection as a tight end/short-yardage
Wildcat runner calls for 21 receptions for 182 yards and a touchdown plus 23 carries for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Brian Hoyer Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: Michigan State Draft: 2009/FA Born: 13-Oct-1985 Age: 37 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 IND 4/1 131 65 35 53.8% -12.9% 372 4 4/4 2 7.5% 4.7 -- -53.1% -- -175 -- 8 2 0 -68.5% -6 16.3
2020 NE 1/1 50 24 15 62.5% -4.2% 130 0 1/1 1 8.0% 4.3 -- -65.2% -- -91 -- 1 8 0 13.8% 2 28.0
2021 NE 5/0 41 11 9 81.8% 15.2% 227 1 0/0 0 0.8% 20.6 -- 204.5% -- 155 -- 11 -8 0 11.0% 2 97.4
2022 NE 595 372 62.5% 3937 22 13 6 5.8 -13.2% 42 52 1 -30.9%
2020: 13% Behind 52% Short 22% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.2 (--) YAC: 3.7 (--) ALEX: 4.7 2021: 9% Behind 55% Short 18% Mid 18% Deep aDOT: 8.8 (--) YAC: 15.9 (--) ALEX: 0.5

We weren’t lucky enough to get 2020 levels of Hoyer exposure—a prime-time start against the Kansas City Chiefs. Instead,
our doses of Hoyer were sprinkled throughout the 2021 season, when he served as a human victory cigar in New England’s
most lopsided wins. At this stage of his career, Hoyer is rostered as a quarterback coach who’s contractually obligated to wear
pads. It especially helped having him in the film room as an additional resource for rookie Mac Jones. In a pinch, Hoyer can
still move the ball with relative consistency. It’s nothing fancy, but it’s just enough to keep the offense functioning. The drafting
of Bailey Zappe might mark the beginning of the end for the cerebral, short-passing signal-caller in New England, but there’s
a certain comfort knowing there’s a veteran presence acclimating these youngsters.
 QUARTERBACKS 271

Tyler Huntley Height: 6-1 Weight: 196 College: Utah Draft: 2020/FA Born: 3-Feb-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Blue

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 BAL 2/0 28 5 3 60.0% -11.8% 15 0 0/0 0 1.9% 3.0 -- -76.1% -- -11 -- 10 23 0 -83.3% -28 2.0
2021 BAL 7/4 373 188 122 64.9% 0.8% 1081 3 4/5 4 8.7% 4.7 33 -16.7% 28 -72 28 47 294 2 1.8% 33 49.0
2022 BAL 593 388 65.4% 4011 20 16 13 6.0 -14.5% 134 770 5 4.3%
2020: 20% Behind 40% Short 0% Mid 40% Deep aDOT: 12.4 (--) YAC: 3.3 (--) ALEX: -26.0 2021: 12% Behind 59% Short 17% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (19) YAC: 3.7 (33) ALEX: 0.8

Huntley was the face of Baltimore’s stretch collapse, when they hung around in games only to fall in excruciating fashion,
losing by a combined seven points in the four games Huntley piloted (three starts and the game he took over after Lamar Jack-
son’s early injury in Cleveland). His advanced stats weren’t good, but he wasn’t the typical overmatched backup, either. Hunt-
ley fits nicely behind Jackson in that the Ravens system doesn’t have to change much, for better or worse. But teams looking
for a bridge quarterback in the future might cast an eye Huntley’s way.

Jalen Hurts Height: 6-1 Weight: 222 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2020/2 (53) Born: 7-Aug-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 PHI 15/4 334 148 77 52.0% -6.6% 1061 6 4/7 9 7.7% 6.2 -- -17.6% -- -68 -- 63 357 3 -15.2% -9 41.2
2021 PHI 15/15 954 432 265 61.3% -0.2% 3144 16 9/12 9 6.4% 6.6 13 -0.3% 17 319 17 139 784 10 13.7% 189 48.5
2022 PHI 517 327 63.2% 4009 22 12 15 6.9 -1.3% 158 875 10 4.5%
2020: 13% Behind 47% Short 25% Mid 16% Deep aDOT: 9.6 (--) YAC: 6.1 (--) ALEX: 2.3 2021: 16% Behind 45% Short 24% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 9.2 (4) YAC: 5.5 (6) ALEX: 2.3

Hurts was on his way back to the Eagles locker room after a Week 16 win at Washington when a railing collapsed, dropping
several fans onto the field. Though he could have been crushed, he wasn’t fazed and even checked to make sure the fans were
OK (take notes, Matthew Stafford). He’s used to evading pressure.
Hurts saw pressure at the sixth-highest rate last season (30.3% of pass plays), though some of that was pressure he invited
because he held onto the ball too long. Even so, the Eagles offense handled the pressure relatively well, posting the fifth-best
DVOA (-39.6%). It’s his performance when not under pressure that’s a red flag. The Eagles’ DVOA on those plays grew, but to
only 42.6%. That’s about average for quarterbacks from a clean pocket, not good or bad.
So Hurts needs to improve as a passer. The Eagles know it. He knows it. We all know it. But let’s take a moment to appreciate
how explosive and efficient a runner he is. His 139 carries last season led the Eagles and were the most by a quarterback in team
history—more than Michael Vick, more than Donovan McNabb, more than Randall Cunningham. He gained at least 10 yards
once every five runs and got a first down twice every five runs, rates matched by only Josh Allen. Bottom line: The Eagles have
a needle to thread this season. They’ll want to pass more but while maintaining the threat of Hurts as a runner.

Lamar Jackson Height: 6-2 Weight: 212 College: Louisville Draft: 2018/1 (32) Born: 7-Jan-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Yellow

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 BAL 15/15 987 401 265 66.1% 2.4% 3127 36 6/6 9 5.6% 7.2 10 34.9% 2 1261 5 176 1206 7 20.5% 273 81.8
2020 BAL 15/15 917 376 242 64.4% -0.2% 2757 26 9/16 10 7.5% 6.5 21 -0.7% 21 265 22 159 1005 7 -3.6% 69 73.9
2021 BAL 12/12 810 382 246 64.4% 1.9% 2882 16 13/13 6 9.1% 6.5 15 -2.9% 19 216 21 133 767 2 -2.0% 66 50.7
2022 BAL 534 352 65.9% 3964 27 13 14 6.6 -2.3% 186 1093 5 -4.8%
2020: 13% Behind 50% Short 24% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.9 (6) YAC: 4.8 (23) ALEX: 1.4 2021: 11% Behind 54% Short 20% Mid 16% Deep aDOT: 9.6 (3) YAC: 4.7 (28) ALEX: 1.6

Entering December, Jackson was in the MVP discussion despite posting far worse numbers than at any point in his career,
mainly due to the one-man-band nature of his play. Then he went down with an ankle injury in Cleveland, ending his season.
Even before he was hurt, Jackson struggled in the passing game. Teams blitzed him far more often than in the past, willing to
live with the occasional whirling dervish scramble if it meant thwarting the Ravens air attack. (The Bengals game in October
was a good example—constant blitzing forced Jackson into a 15-for-31, 251-yard stat line with five sacks in a 41-17 mauling.)
His adjusted sack rate has gone way up over the last two years as a result. Jackson also was poor on third downs with a -43.4%
DVOA, which of course went hand-in-hand with the blitzing, as did his 16 turnovers in 11 games.
It can be tricky to separate the effectiveness of the general from his available weaponry in Baltimore, and by trading away
Marquise Brown the Ravens reduced Jackson’s passing options even further. Jackson’s dual-threat potency means he remains
a viable fantasy option, but drafting him comes with risks. More pertinent may be the offensive line’s ability to handle those
272 QUARTERBACKS

blitzes, a revived running game to assist Jackson, and how Baltimore parries the latest schematic thrust devised by defensive
coordinators eager to slow Jackson in the great fencing match that is NFL football.

Josh Johnson Height: 6-3 Weight: 219 College: San Diego Draft: 2008/5 (160) Born: 15-May-1986 Age: 36 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 2TM 4/1 128 85 57 67.1% 0.3% 638 5 2/3 2 4.2% 7.0 -- 16.6% -- 157 -- 9 28 0 -101.9% -40 51.7
2022 DEN 559 355 63.5% 3934 23 15 12 6.3 -8.9% 68 254 2 -13.1%
2021: 12% Behind 57% Short 25% Mid 6% Deep aDOT: 7.3 (--) YAC: 5.0 (--) ALEX: -0.9

Johnson threw three touchdown passes in relief of Mike White (in relief of Zach Wilson) in a Jets blowout loss to the Colts
in Week 9 last year, then two touchdown passes in relief of Tyler Huntley (in relief of Lamar Jackson) in a Ravens blowout loss
to the Bengals in Week 16. There are two types of emergency quarterbacks in the world: those who put up relatively impres-
sive stats in blowout losses and those who don’t. The first category, which includes Johnson, is clearly superior to the second.
Johnson may throw a few touchdowns and scramble for a few yards in relief of Brett Rypien (in relief of Russell Wilson) if
things go haywire in Denver this year, or the Broncos might decide to skip the middleman. Either way, the USFL will have to
wait for the only quarterback ever to play for the NFL, UFL, AAF and XFL.

Daniel Jones Height: 6-5 Weight: 220 College: Duke Draft: 2019/1 (6) Born: 27-May-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NYG 13/12 826 459 284 61.9% -2.4% 3027 24 12/18 18 7.8% 5.5 31 -19.2% 30 -256 31 45 279 2 7.9% 45 53.6
2020 NYG 14/14 868 448 280 62.5% -4.2% 2943 11 10/12 11 8.2% 5.4 31 -22.4% 32 -350 32 65 423 1 16.2% 67 61.5
2021 NYG 11/11 673 361 232 64.3% -1.9% 2428 10 7/10 7 6.4% 5.9 23 -10.6% 26 14 26 62 298 2 -13.8% -5 41.5
2022 NYG 592 383 64.7% 4171 19 13 11 6.3 -10.9% 55 288 2 0.0%
2020: 9% Behind 61% Short 21% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 7.7 (25) YAC: 4.0 (34) ALEX: 0.1 2021: 14% Behind 57% Short 21% Mid 7% Deep aDOT: 7.4 (28) YAC: 4.7 (25) ALEX: 0.2

Danny Dimes? More like Danny Dumpoffs. Jones’ deep pass rate and average depth of target fell again in 2021. In fact, he
threw passes behind the line of scrimmage at the highest rate of his career. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The 49ers, Pack-
ers, and Chiefs threw behind the line of scrimmage a lot too. They also had good pass blockers and receivers who could pick up
yards after the catch. The Giants had neither, and as a result, Jones’ efficiency suffered. His -48.1% DVOA on passes to targets
behind the line of scrimmage ranked 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. New Giants head coach Brian Daboll probably
won’t ask Jones to stop throwing those passes; Josh Allen threw them at about the same rate last season, but his DVOA wasn’t
anywhere near as horrid (-5.4%, 14th).

Mac Jones Height: 6-3 Weight: 214 College: Alabama Draft: 2021/1 (15) Born: 5-Sep-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 NE 17/17 1065 521 352 67.6% 2.4% 3801 22 13/14 7 5.6% 6.5 14 6.1% 13 620 12 44 129 0 -18.3% -15 50.9
2022 NE 558 375 67.2% 4097 27 14 8 6.5 -1.8% 42 141 1 -14.4%
2021: 14% Behind 53% Short 20% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.1 (14) YAC: 5.0 (19) ALEX: 0.8

Jones was the fifth quarterback off the board in 2021, and the fifth-best passer in the draft class according to QBASE, and yet
he finished with the best season of any rookie signal-caller. The things he was praised for out of Alabama—his accuracy and
his processing—helped him make a relatively seamless transition to the NFL, and he finished ninth among starters in CPOE.
His arm strength, on the other hand, capped his ceiling. A lot of Jones’ downfield attempts died a few yards short of the mark,
forcing receivers to adjust and come back to the ball instead of catching it in stride. His ranking of 27th on deep-pass DVOA
(20 or more yards downfield) is a sharp contrast to his overall ranking of 13th.
 QUARTERBACKS 273

Case Keenum Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Houston Draft: 2012/FA Born: 17-Feb-1988 Age: 34 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 WAS 10/8 460 247 160 64.8% -1.5% 1707 11 5/8 6 6.3% 6.0 22 -8.1% 23 51 24 9 12 1 -36.8% -12 43.5
2020 CLE 2/0 15 10 5 50.0% -20.3% 46 0 0/0 0 0.0% 4.6 -- -32.9% -- -16 -- 0 0 0 -- -- 41.7
2021 CLE 7/2 174 72 47 65.3% -5.4% 462 3 1/1 1 6.7% 5.6 -- 5.8% -- 84 -- 12 22 0 7.8% 11 36.9
2022 BUF 573 366 63.9% 3953 24 13 9 6.1 -6.9% 47 139 1 -12.4%
2020: 22% Behind 56% Short 22% Mid 0% Deep aDOT: 2.7 (--) YAC: 5.6 (--) ALEX: 0.5 2021: 26% Behind 46% Short 23% Mid 4% Deep aDOT: 5.8 (--) YAC: 6.5 (--) ALEX: 2.4

“It feels great to have a team want you to come… It feels great to have a team like this, the caliber of players, the talent on
the team, the type of offense they run.” Keenum’s interview with The Buffalo News reporter Jay Skurski may have been diplo-
matic, but it also made it clear that Baker Mayfield wasn’t the only Browns quarterback upset by Cleveland’s handling of the
quarterback situation. Keenum can cheer up now that he has upgraded to our projected Super Bowl favorites. But that doesn’t
mean he’ll see more than a few preseason games under center. In a similar role last season, Mitchell Trubisky threw just eight
regular-season passes. At 34 years old and now five years removed from his outlier 2017 Vikings season, when he led the league
with a 28.1% passing DVOA, Keenum is unlikely to see the same reputational rehabilitation Trubisky got as Allen’s backup.
Keenum is accurate but conservative and should be one of the league’s better backup quarterback options.

Trey Lance Height: 6-4 Weight: 226 College: North Dakota State Draft: 2021/1 (3) Born: 9-May-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Yellow

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 SF 6/2 178 71 41 57.7% -0.3% 603 5 2/3 0 5.9% 7.8 -- 20.4% -- 148 -- 38 168 1 -17.9% -11 33.4
2022 SF 490 309 63.1% 3668 22 13 8 6.7 -3.3% 131 612 5 -7.8%
2021: 14% Behind 32% Short 32% Mid 22% Deep aDOT: 9.8 (--) YAC: 7.0 (--) ALEX: 1.6

Lance only saw significant action in three games as a rookie, and it was clear that the San Francisco staff was treating 2021 as
a redshirt year given that they elected to start a clearly injured Jimmy Garoppolo in the playoffs over a healthy Lance. Lance’s
impressive arm talent and physical ability as a scrambler showed up in flashes when he was pressed into action, but it was also
obvious that he needed more reps to improve his consistency making reads against NFL defenses. He played well enough to
lead the team to a win against the Texans late in the year in a performance that was a marked improvement from his first start
against the Cardinals in Week 5, but one game against a below-average defense should not spawn any great proclamations that
Lance is the next big thing. Even if there are growing pains in his first full year as the starter, if he can add another element to
San Francisco’s Smash-Mouth zone-rushing attack, maybe he can end up being an All-Star. Get your game on, young Trey.

Trevor Lawrence Height: 6-6 Weight: 220 College: Clemson Draft: 2021/1 (1) Born: 6-Oct-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 JAX 17/17 1078 602 359 59.6% -4.3% 3641 12 17/22 9 5.6% 5.4 29 -19.5% 29 -345 32 73 334 2 -5.5% 24 33.5
2022 JAX 597 381 63.8% 4035 23 14 10 6.1 -10.6% 71 326 2 -4.5%
2021: 15% Behind 52% Short 21% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.1 (15) YAC: 4.6 (30) ALEX: 2.1

The easiest way for a horrendous coach/organization to ruin a quarterback prospect is to subject him to a rookie pummeling
that permanently fouls up his pocket clock. So the good news buried within Lawrence’s 2021 statistical dungheap is that his
sack total (32) and sack rate (5.0%) were not too bad, his pressure rate of 26.9% was non-noteworthy and his time to throw
of 2.87 seconds suggests that he wasn’t already flinching and fleeing at the sight of an edge rusher’s shadow. Everything else
about Lawrence’s Spartan baby experience of 2021 should be reversible: both the Jaguars system and his surrounding cast have
gone from “’90s comedy where a team tries to lose on purpose” to “kinda OK,” and it probably didn’t take Lawrence long last
year to realize that it was in his best interests to tune Urban Meyer out. Tempered enthusiasm is warranted, but no one expects
Lawrence to slingshot into Patrick Mahomes territory right away. (That’s more of a Trey Lance thing.) Encouraging mediocrity
is a worthy goal for the whole Jaguars organization this year, and Lawrence might well exceed that goal.
274 QUARTERBACKS

Drew Lock Height: 6-4 Weight: 228 College: Missouri Draft: 2019/2 (42) Born: 10-Nov-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Red

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 DEN 5/5 307 156 100 64.1% -1.3% 1020 7 3/4 3 4.2% 6.2 -- 2.2% -- 138 -- 18 72 0 -10.9% 1 48.2
2020 DEN 13/13 834 443 254 57.3% -6.3% 2933 16 15/16 8 6.1% 6.0 25 -16.2% 28 -151 30 44 160 3 -16.0% -8 49.2
2021 DEN 6/3 234 111 67 60.4% -1.4% 787 2 2/6 2 8.3% 6.2 -- -15.0% -- -28 -- 10 53 2 -17.2% -3 23.4
2022 SEA 517 314 60.7% 3507 20 13 12 6.0 -18.9% 54 214 4 -8.1%
2020: 11% Behind 51% Short 23% Mid 16% Deep aDOT: 9.1 (3) YAC: 5.4 (12) ALEX: 1.7 2021: 13% Behind 48% Short 17% Mid 22% Deep aDOT: 10.3 (--) YAC: 5.2 (--) ALEX: 1.5

In his only full season as a starter, Lock’s passing DVOA was -16.2%. The last qualifying Seattle quarterback with a DVOA
that bad was Matthew Hasselbeck in his last year in the Pacific Northwest in 2010. Other Seahawks quarterbacks who have
performed worse than Lock include Rick Mirer, Stan Gelbaugh, Kelly Stouffer … and that’s it. Tarvaris Jackson? John Friesz?
Jon Kitna? Seneca Wallace? None of them ever played as badly as Lock did in 2020, to say nothing of Jim Zorn or Dave Krieg
or … that other guy.
But was Lock really so bad that year? He made the top 10 quarterbacks in lowest sack rate, and though he led the NFL in
interceptions, that’s partly due to bad luck—he was ninth in adjusted interceptions as 16 quarterbacks had more potential
turnovers dropped by defenders. Mind you, a ninth-place finish is still pretty bad, but if you ignore interceptions, Lock was …
well, still horrible, finishing dead last in completion percentage and struggling on throws to all areas of the field. Although he
threw deep a lot, he didn’t throw deep well, with the sixth-worst DVOA on throws to targets 20-plus yards downfield. This is
the quarterback coming to Seattle: a nifty scrambler with no accuracy, chucking incompletions all over the place and throwing
too many passes to the other team. Repeat after me, Seahawks fans: the trade was not Drew’s fault, and he’s trying his best.

Jordan Love Height: 6-4 Weight: 224 College: Utah State Draft: 2020/1 (26) Born: 2-Nov-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 GB 6/1 131 62 36 58.1% -8.0% 411 2 3/5 3 5.5% 6.0 -- -38.5% -- -125 -- 12 27 0 -47.6% -9 31.4
2022 GB 570 368 64.6% 3951 25 17 19 6.2 -14.1% 59 181 2 -25.7%
2021: 16% Behind 48% Short 21% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (--) YAC: 6.5 (--) ALEX: 2.2

It’s Year 3 for Jordan Love and there still isn’t much we know about him now that we didn’t know about him coming out of
college. Love threw 62 passes last year, though only about half of them were worth anything. Twenty-four of Love’s attempts
came from the end of the Week 1 blowout versus New Orleans and the second half of Week 18, a worthless game for Green Bay in
which the Packers subbed out key starters halfway through. In Love’s only start, the game plan was rather limited, largely asking
him to throw within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage and only straying deeper down the field for low-percentage sideline throws.
Serious reps or not, Love finished the year poorly in some key areas—namely, his putrid -20.9% DVOA when not pressured.
Seeing as non-pressured plays are typically more stable and informative, that’s a startling figure. Love was also a trainwreck on
third downs, finishing with -45.3% DVOA and 2.9 yards per play, all of which tracks for a player who entered the league raw
in his pre-snap understanding and a bit volatile in his decision-making when bullets fly.

Patrick Mahomes Height: 6-3 Weight: 230 College: Texas Tech Draft: 2017/1 (10) Born: 17-Sep-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 KC 14/14 889 484 319 65.9% 2.7% 4031 26 5/10 3 4.3% 7.8 2 30.0% 3 1320 2 43 218 2 28.1% 66 76.3
2020 KC 15/15 1027 588 390 66.3% 0.7% 4740 38 6/13 5 4.4% 7.5 4 31.7% 2 1720 1 62 308 2 6.0% 44 82.9
2021 KC 17/17 1164 658 436 66.3% 2.3% 4839 37 13/18 9 4.9% 6.8 11 18.6% 4 1368 4 66 381 2 21.1% 84 62.2
2022 KC 678 468 69.0% 5319 37 13 9 7.0 14.1% 64 361 2 14.0%
2020: 15% Behind 50% Short 22% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.4 (14) YAC: 5.7 (6) ALEX: 3.0 2021: 22% Behind 47% Short 19% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 7.5 (27) YAC: 6.2 (2) ALEX: 2.6

Mahomes’ yards per attempt, completion rate, and yards per completion are all in a three-year decline, though you have to
round down to the third decimal place to note the change in completion rate. His sack rate has also increased for two consecu-
tive seasons, as has his pressure rate, from 20.0% in 2019 to 22.0% in 2020 to 22.1% last year. Mahomes’ average intended air
yards per attempt have decreased for four straight seasons, from 9.2 in 2018 to 7.5 last year. His air yards per completion have
also dropped for four straight years, from 6.5 to 4.9. Also, Mahomes scrambled 47 times last year, the highest total of his career,
though the 17th game had a little to do with that. Overall, there’s no reason to sound any emergency sirens, but there’s a lot
of evidence that Mahomes has been gently receding from his 2018-2019 brilliance on a variety of statistical fronts, including
 QUARTERBACKS 275

some (like sack rate) that should be improving as Mahomes matures and his offensive line improves. Tyreek Hill’s departure is
unlikely to help Mahomes statistically, but a more conventional offense should stabilize the numbers and give a better sense of
both how brilliant and mercurial Mahomes will be moving forward. One possible outcome: Aaron Rodgers’ mid-2010s “middle
period,” when he became one of the most efficient passers in the NFL and everyone kept wondering what was wrong with him.
Our KUBIAK projections still see Mahomes as a fantasy stud.

Sean Mannion Height: 6-6 Weight: 231 College: Oregon State Draft: 2015/3 (89) Born: 25-Apr-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 MIN 3/1 54 21 12 57.1% -3.4% 126 0 2/1 1 1.0% 6.0 -- -15.2% -- -5 -- 6 -5 0 -352.9% -21 24.8
2021 MIN 1/1 51 36 22 61.1% -3.6% 189 1 0/0 0 5.0% 4.6 -- -10.4% -- 2 -- 2 14 0 34.3% 6 33.5
2022 MIN 575 345 60.0% 3948 25 15 9 6.1 -9.9% 44 137 2 -11.9%
2021: 18% Behind 56% Short 18% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 6.5 (--) YAC: 4.3 (--) ALEX: 1.3

Mannion’s lone start last season, the third of his career, wasn’t pretty. In Week 17, Mannion was sacrificed on national televi-
sion to a Green Bay defense that had started to turn things on a little bit. The Vikings put him in shotgun often and made him
pepper the underneath areas of the field, which he didn’t do well enough to generate real offense. Mannion offered nothing
beyond the 10-yard mark until the game was a blowout, either, as he was wholly inaccurate to that range until later in the second
half. Mannion’s primary limiting factor is that everything he does is slow. He has slow feet in the pocket, he has no twitchiness
to move up or scramble, and even his throwing motion is a bit sluggish. Mannion can spin the ball pretty well, to be fair, but it’s
not like his JUGS-machine arm is well-calibrated for accuracy. Mannion avoided turnovers, though, which is an upgrade over
his 2020 start for the Vikings in which he threw two picks and fumbled.

Marcus Mariota Height: 6-4 Weight: 222 College: Oregon Draft: 2015/1 (2) Born: 30-Oct-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Red

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 TEN 7/6 367 160 95 59.4% -4.9% 1203 7 2/3 3 13.6% 5.7 -- -17.0% -- -62 -- 24 129 0 -13.7% -2 33.7
2020 LV 1/0 65 28 17 60.7% 2.2% 226 1 1/2 0 1.6% 8.4 -- 13.0% -- 45 -- 9 88 1 76.2% 48 98.1
2021 LV 10/0 24 2 1 50.0% -11.7% 4 0 0/0 1 1.7% 2.0 -- -68.8% -- -8 -- 13 87 1 -3.3% 8 40.3
2022 ATL 461 285 61.8% 3396 19 10 9 6.5 -8.1% 78 443 2 0.3%
2020: 8% Behind 42% Short 27% Mid 23% Deep aDOT: 10.1 (--) YAC: 4.5 (--) ALEX: -5.3 2021: 50% Behind 0% Short 0% Mid 50% Deep aDOT: 15.5 (--) YAC: 8.0 (--) ALEX: 0.0

Mariota hasn’t qualified for our main tables since 2018, and in fact wouldn’t have a qualified season even if you shoved his
last three years together. He has mostly restored his reputation through absence making the heart grow fonder, as well as two
solid quarters in relief against the Chargers in 2020. When we last saw Mariota as a starter, he was being betrayed by his subpar
arm strength, poor pocket awareness, and struggles throwing out of structure. Mariota’s 8.0% sack rate is fifth worst among
active quarterbacks with at least 1,500 passes, and he’s in the bottom 10 in interception rate as well. There’s a reason Arthur
Smith’s Titans benched him for Ryan Tannehill, after all. Mariota has never been a disaster, and he has continued to show
flashes of the player who was drafted second overall, even as a backup for Las Vegas. But he has never put it all together, and
the odds of him figuring things out in Year 8 are close to zilch. Add in the fact that Mariota has never played a full season, and
you should take the over on Desmond Ridder games started in 2022.

Baker Mayfield Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2018/1 (1) Born: 14-Apr-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Yellow

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 CLE 16/16 1058 534 317 59.4% -2.8% 3827 22 21/23 6 7.1% 6.2 17 -9.8% 25 48 25 28 141 3 21.9% 48 52.4
2020 CLE 16/16 1046 486 305 62.8% 1.4% 3563 26 8/12 8 6.7% 6.6 18 5.1% 17 545 16 54 165 1 -6.8% 13 72.4
2021 CLE 14/14 877 418 253 60.5% -2.4% 3010 17 13/17 6 9.3% 5.9 21 -8.0% 23 94 23 37 134 1 -11.0% 2 35.1
2022 CAR 609 381 62.6% 4174 24 17 9 6.1 -8.6% 44 153 1 -14.1%
2020: 11% Behind 51% Short 25% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.7 (8) YAC: 4.5 (30) ALEX: 1.8 2021: 14% Behind 49% Short 22% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 8.9 (5) YAC: 5.5 (7) ALEX: 2.3

While we’re sympathetic to Mayfield’s plea that he put his body on the line for the Browns and was usurped for the privilege,
the truth is that Mayfield played his way out of Cleveland. The Browns surrounded him with a bushel of talent, a scheme in which
weak quarterbacks have succeeded, and a good offensive line. All he did was chase off Odell Beckham by not being able to read
276 QUARTERBACKS

the back side of a play. He still makes too many puzzling throws, and he still can’t handle pressure well. It’s hard to sell someone
on paying him No. 1 overall pick fifth-year option money when you look at the context of how this happened. But Mayfield’s
ego—the one that presented “I felt disrespected” about the Deshaun Watson acquisition and demanded a trade before the Browns
even knew they were winning the Watson derby—made it next-to-impossible for him to exist as a backup in Cleveland this year.
And so on July 5, just as this book was going to deadline, the Browns dealt him to Carolina for a conditional third-day pick in
2024, which is only the slightest hair above a bag of footballs and a kicking tee. Consider the chip on his shoulder firmly reinstated.

Colt McCoy Height: 6-1 Weight: 212 College: Texas Draft: 2010/3 (85) Born: 5-Sep-1986 Age: 36 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 WAS 1/1 59 27 18 66.7% 0.1% 122 0 1/2 2 16.9% 2.4 -- -73.8% -- -114 -- 2 14 0 90.1% 9 13.9
2020 NYG 4/2 145 66 40 60.6% -7.8% 375 1 1/2 1 6.9% 4.9 -- -40.7% -- -132 -- 9 12 0 -71.2% -14 36.0
2021 ARI 8/3 209 99 74 74.7% 4.2% 740 3 1/4 4 6.2% 6.7 -- 7.1% -- 131 -- 22 37 0 -9.3% 2 54.5
2022 ARI 583 381 65.4% 4126 23 11 13 6.3 -5.6% 64 148 1 -34.1%
2020: 11% Behind 48% Short 29% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.9 (--) YAC: 3.2 (--) ALEX: 4.5 2021: 29% Behind 46% Short 19% Mid 6% Deep aDOT: 5.5 (--) YAC: 6.1 (--) ALEX: -0.7

When a backup quarterback is forced to make multiple starts during a season, it is normally a hair-raising time for a team’s
offense, but McCoy managed to reduce those stress levels while piloting the offense to effective performances in two of his
three starts. His 7.1% passing DVOA would have ranked 13th had he attempted enough passes to qualify, ahead of the likes of
Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. McCoy signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals this offseason to continue backing up Kyler Mur-
ray, and while we should not expect him to set the world on fire should he be pressed into action again, his relative competence
in the backup role could prove useful should Murray be forced to miss time in 2022. While McCoy has not had a particularly
flashy career, the fact that he is still in the league at age 36 should definitely be considered an accomplishment for a player who
was originally drafted in the third round in 2010.

Davis Mills Height: 6-4 Weight: 212 College: Stanford Draft: 2021/3 (67) Born: 21-Oct-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 HOU 13/11 743 394 263 66.8% 2.7% 2664 16 10/16 5 7.5% 5.8 25 -8.7% 24 66 25 18 44 0 -18.0% -5 35.5
2022 HOU 530 358 67.5% 3950 27 11 9 6.7 -2.7% 28 86 1 -15.3%
2021: 18% Behind 52% Short 18% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 7.6 (26) YAC: 4.7 (26) ALEX: -0.4

Much of the Houston passing offense was built for Mills to throw short and in the middle of the field. That led to a fairly
high completion percentage but not a ton of value. With those shorter passes, Mills threw his average pass short of the sticks
on first, second, and third down. (At least he had an ALEX of +3.8 on 14 fourth-down throws!) Even with that less aggressive
style, Mills still managed to put the ball in harm’s way. He finished the season with 10 interceptions, but accounting for drops
and deflections gives him 16 adjusted interceptions. That’s a 4.1% adjusted interception rate which was tied for fifth highest
among qualified quarterbacks. Mills and the Texans could benefit from going under center more, which helped with some more
shot plays—Davis had a 17.6% DVOA and 11.2-yard aDOT from under center, compared to a -14.8% DVOA and a 6.8-yard
aDOT from shotgun.

Gardner Minshew Height: 6-1 Weight: 225 College: Washington State Draft: 2019/6 (178) Born: 16-May-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 JAX 14/12 920 470 285 60.6% -4.0% 3271 21 6/10 13 7.0% 6.1 20 -5.0% 22 193 22 67 344 0 8.1% 48 42.6
2020 JAX 9/8 558 327 216 66.1% 0.8% 2259 16 5/7 5 8.9% 6.0 26 -11.0% 27 4 27 29 153 1 -4.2% 11 52.2
2021 PHI 4/2 166 60 41 68.3% 2.5% 439 4 1/1 1 8.0% 6.3 -- 8.1% -- 78 -- 9 21 0 -17.8% -2 60.6
2022 PHI 561 369 65.8% 4427 28 12 12 7.0 3.8% 78 279 2 -14.3%
2020: 14% Behind 52% Short 22% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.0 (21) YAC: 4.7 (26) ALEX: 0.1 2021: 23% Behind 46% Short 18% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 6.0 (--) YAC: 6.4 (--) ALEX: -1.0

Was the rest of the NFL asleep when the Jaguars traded Minshew late last August? Eagles general manager Howie Roseman
saw value—a 25-year-old spot starter with two years left on his rookie contract—and stole him like a thief in the night, leaving
behind only a sixth-round pick. A couple of months later, Roseman regained a sixth-round pick by trading Joe Flacco to the Jets.
Predictably, “Top Gun” Gardner incited a modest quarterback controversy when, starting in place of an injured Jalen Hurts, he
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completed 20 of 25 passes for 242 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a Week 13 win over the Jets. Afterward, he asked coach
Nick Sirianni what he needed to do to become the team’s full-time starter. “Play the Jets every week” could be one response,
but Sirianni was more tactful. “He said we are solid right now,” Minshew said. So for now Gardner will remain Jalen Hurts’
radar intercept officer until Seattle or some other quarterback-needy team gives Roseman what he wants.

Nick Mullens Height: 6-1 Weight: 210 College: Southern Mississippi Draft: 2017/FA Born: 21-Mar-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 SF 1/0 7 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 0.0% 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- 3 -3 0 -- -- --
2020 SF 10/8 603 326 211 64.7% -1.9% 2437 12 12/14 6 4.5% 6.7 15 -7.7% 25 76 25 9 8 0 -24.8% -3 44.4
2021 CLE 1/1 56 30 20 66.7% -0.6% 147 1 0/0 0 0.9% 5.1 -- 3.9% -- 29 -- 0 0 0 -- -- 77.6
2022 LV 563 373 66.3% 3995 23 15 8 6.3 -7.5% 37 130 1 -6.6%
2020: 15% Behind 54% Short 23% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 6.5 (34) YAC: 5.9 (3) ALEX: 0.1 2021: 13% Behind 57% Short 20% Mid 10% Deep aDOT: 7.6 (--) YAC: 3.6 (--) ALEX: 0.5

Mullens’ NFL debut in 2018 came on a Thursday night, a 34-3 49ers win over the Raiders when Jimmy Garoppolo and
backup C.J. Beathard were both injured. Mullens took the field last December against the Raiders alongside 45 guys who tested
negative for COVID at a Cleveland Walgreens and nearly pulled off an upset, mostly by handing off to Nick Chubb and hop-
ing for the best. In between, Mullens has been largely ineffectual, but looking feisty and determined during an emergency in
random night games is his superpower. That makes Mullens an upgrade as the Raiders backup over Marcus Mariota, whose
superpower is looking feisty and then getting injured in random night games.

Kyler Murray Height: 5-10 Weight: 207 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2019/1 (1) Born: 7-Aug-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 ARI 16/16 1025 542 349 64.4% 0.5% 3722 20 12/15 5 8.2% 5.9 26 -3.1% 21 305 21 93 544 4 8.5% 87 55.7
2020 ARI 16/16 1103 558 375 67.2% 3.9% 3971 26 12/20 9 5.3% 6.5 19 4.6% 18 590 15 133 819 11 15.8% 186 69.1
2021 ARI 14/14 939 481 333 69.2% 6.3% 3787 24 10/14 13 6.3% 6.8 10 15.6% 7 882 9 88 423 5 -32.8% -90 57.3
2022 ARI 600 401 66.8% 4406 29 13 14 6.6 -0.9% 104 525 6 -1.6%
2020: 17% Behind 52% Short 17% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.1 (19) YAC: 4.7 (28) ALEX: 2.8 2021: 22% Behind 43% Short 18% Mid 16% Deep aDOT: 8.2 (13) YAC: 5.4 (10) ALEX: 3.2

Murray has been at the center of quite a bit of drama this offseason surrounding whether he will be signing the customary
enormous contract extension for quarterbacks coming off their rookie deals, and as of press time, that remains an open question.
Murray has improved as a passer each year that he has been in the league and continues to stress defenses with his mobility
when he improvises outside the pocket to make plays. He also manages to avoid taking an exorbitant number of sacks, which
can often be a pitfall for a quarterback who consistently extends plays searching for a deep shot. His poor rushing DVOA last
season is the result of all those Arizona fumbled snaps, which get counted as running plays in the official NFL stats. When it
comes to actual runs, the threat of Murray taking off remains firmly implanted in the back of defensive coordinators’ minds.
If Murray is able to produce at a high level without the suspended DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, he probably will not have
to worry much about the size of his new contract. The KUBIAK projections see Murray taking a step backwards without six
games of his most talented receiver (Hopkins) and a full season of his most productive receiver (Christian Kirk).

Cam Newton Height: 6-5 Weight: 245 College: Auburn Draft: 2011/1 (1) Born: 11-May-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 CAR 2/2 146 89 50 56.2% -5.4% 572 0 1/1 2 6.1% 5.6 -- -8.0% -- 19 -- 5 -2 0 -230.2% -48 21.1
2020 NE 15/15 876 368 242 65.8% -1.0% 2657 8 10/11 6 8.0% 6.2 23 -17.7% 31 -166 31 137 592 12 -6.4% 44 47.4
2021 CAR 8/5 252 126 69 54.8% -11.3% 684 4 5/7 4 7.5% 4.4 -- -39.3% -- -243 -- 47 230 5 -11.0% 3 25.5
2020: 20% Behind 47% Short 25% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 6.8 (31) YAC: 5.2 (16) ALEX: -2.1 2021: 11% Behind 60% Short 20% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 7.2 (--) YAC: 4.5 (--) ALEX: -0.3

Last year, Newton proved that you can go home again, provided that you leave again shortly thereafter so as to not ruin the
moment. Newton’s return to Carolina was briefly one of the better stories of the year. He had a rushing touchdown and a pass-
ing touchdown in just nine snaps on his return to the Panthers. Then Newton had to start as a full-time quarterback, and the
magic was gone. Newton had the second-worst passing DVOA of anyone with at least 100 attempts, and he’s no longer really
fit to be a full-time passer anymore. That said, a creative team could still find use for Newton as a goal-line and short-yardage
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player, where his threat as a runner may still provide value. As of press time, however, there were no takers for the 33-year-old
Newton, and his career may be done.

Kenny Pickett Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Pittsburgh Draft: 2022/1 (20) Born: 6-Jun-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Blue

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2022 PIT 544 348 64.0% 3629 23 15 11 5.9 -17.6% 59 279 3 -0.1%

Pickett moves all the way from one side of the enormous Steelers/Pitt Panthers practice facility to the other side a few feet
away. Asked about the dominant feature of Pickett’s pre-draft discourse, hand size, then-Pittsburgh general manager Kevin
Colbert said “Honestly, I never paid attention to that. We look at the results. We watch Kenny play in our environment... Can he
throw the football? Absolutely. Did he have an excessive fumble rate? No, he didn’t. We just judge it on how he played.” Pick-
ett’s biggest problem isn’t his hand size but rather the fact that he bucks the structure of the offense more than he should. His
game is based on arm strength and flair more than processing and discipline, so he may not be as NFL-ready as conventional
wisdom suggested during the draft process.
Pickett started OTAs working with the third string, but Mike Tomlin noted after the draft that Pickett has a chance to start
in Week 1. It sure feels likely between the investment here and the amount of playing-time incentives in Mitchell Trubisky’s
contract that Pickett will be the starter for the plurality of the season. The question is just when that begins.

Dak Prescott Height: 6-2 Weight: 238 College: Mississippi State Draft: 2016/4 (135) Born: 29-Jul-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 DAL 16/16 1124 596 388 65.1% 1.2% 4902 30 11/17 6 4.3% 7.7 3 27.1% 6 1541 1 52 277 3 15.6% 71 70.2
2020 DAL 5/5 360 222 151 68.0% 1.0% 1856 9 4/9 3 4.4% 7.7 1 14.0% 8 399 19 18 93 3 33.3% 46 78.4
2021 DAL 16/16 1114 596 410 68.8% 2.7% 4449 37 10/16 14 5.6% 6.9 6 21.2% 3 1379 3 48 146 1 -63.6% -97 54.6
2022 DAL 672 448 66.7% 5071 34 13 16 6.8 5.2% 58 209 3 -9.4%
2020: 15% Behind 52% Short 20% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (22) YAC: 5.4 (14) ALEX: 2.5 2021: 15% Behind 53% Short 20% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (21) YAC: 4.9 (22) ALEX: 3.1

As it generally is with the Cowboys, there are simultaneously many amazing things about Prescott that make him a franchise
quarterback, but also a troubling number of warning signs that leave the statistical whole looking like less than the sum of its
parts. Prescott entered the season having barely thrown in training camp because of a shoulder injury, then underwent another
surgery (to his other shoulder) after the season. There was also a clear split between how he played before his calf injury in
Week 6 and how he played after it. Through Week 6, Prescott had a 42.8% DVOA, second to only Matthew Stafford among
qualifying quarterbacks. From Week 7 to Week 15, Prescott’s DVOA was -9.1%, roughly equal to Jared Goff’s performance
over the same stretch of time. That’s a whole two first-round picks’ worth of performance difference! Prescott has clearly
become a top-12 quarterback, worthy of the large contract he signed. His mastery of the nuances of the position draws rave
reviews from the Internet’s greatest all-22 experts. And at the same time, he has been hurt so much over the past two years that
it’s been hard to understand what a true ceiling season would look like from him. Taking Amari Cooper away this year won’t
help him reach it, but he should comfortably remain in the QB1 discussion in fantasy.

Desmond Ridder Height: 6-4 Weight: 215 College: Cincinnati Draft: 2022/3 (74) Born: 31-Aug-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2022 ATL 534 325 60.9% 3895 19 12 11 6.5 -10.5% 63 331 3 2.3%

Our own Derrik Klassen called Ridder the most put-together quarterback in the class, the one who will need the least adjust-
ment to get comfortable in the NFL. QBASE was less kind, ranking him third behind Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral. There are
concerns about his accuracy and ball placement. But in a collegiate game full of RPOs and defined reads, Ridder was asked to
run a fuller, NFL-style offense at Cincinnati, and he has displayed excellent processing ability to this point. That’s really his
calling card right now: poise, timing, and decision making above and beyond anyone else available this year. He’s very mechan-
ically sound, too, which is good—but it means that there’s not an obvious thing that can be fixed to help his accuracy troubles.
He got away with some off-target and poorly placed throws against Group of 5 competition in a way that won’t work at the
NFL level, and he doesn’t have the raw arm strength to make up for some of those accuracy mistakes. Much of the pre-draft
analysis compared him to Marcus Mariota, making his selection by the Falcons to back up the actual Mariota quite interesting.
 QUARTERBACKS 279

Aaron Rodgers Height: 6-2 Weight: 225 College: California Draft: 2005/1 (24) Born: 2-Dec-1983 Age: 39 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 GB 16/16 1082 569 353 62.0% 0.1% 4002 26 4/6 4 6.5% 6.2 18 9.0% 13 794 8 46 183 1 35.9% 61 50.4
2020 GB 16/16 1018 526 372 70.7% 5.3% 4299 48 5/11 4 4.8% 7.6 3 33.7% 1 1649 2 38 149 3 2.9% 24 84.4
2021 GB 16/16 983 531 366 68.9% 3.7% 4115 37 4/9 3 5.0% 7.0 4 27.8% 1 1510 2 33 101 3 5.8% 21 69.1
2022 GB 581 399 68.7% 4483 36 7 5 6.9 15.6% 35 122 3 6.0%
2020: 20% Behind 49% Short 16% Mid 16% Deep aDOT: 8.1 (17) YAC: 6.0 (1) ALEX: 4.8 2021: 17% Behind 52% Short 17% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (20) YAC: 5.9 (4) ALEX: 5.1

It would be impossible to guess off the back of a second-straight MVP campaign, but no quarterback in the league produced
a larger split between their DVOA with pressure and without than Aaron Rodgers. Without pressure, Rodgers was a celestial
being, turning in the third-best DVOA without pressure by any quarterback since 2019. When pressured, however, Rodgers
plummeted to the bottom of the league with a -94.9% DVOA, a far cry from his relatively good -36.5% DVOA when pressured
in 2020. Rodgers still cleared the league average in success rate against four-, five-, and six-plus-man rushes, though, which fur-
ther suggests Rodgers was beating the rush very often, but crumbled when he couldn’t beat it early. Natural volatility for pres-
sured production is partly to blame, as are the injuries to the offensive line and the absence of Robert Tonyan over the middle.
Similarly, Rodgers’ in- and out-of-pocket splits were startling. Rodgers was lights-out from the pocket, but his -2.0% DVOA
outside the pocket was his lowest mark since at least 2012 and the only time he dropped below 9.6% over that span. The good
news is the rate at which Rodgers got pressured or left the pocket were both below average, particularly his pressure rate, in
large part because he gets the ball out exceptionally fast, boasting the fifth-lowest time to throw in the league last year.

Ben Roethlisberger Height: 6-5 Weight: 240 College: Miami (Ohio) Draft: 2004/1 (11) Born: 2-Mar-1982 Age: 40 Risk: N/A

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 PIT 2/2 96 62 35 56.5% -11.1% 351 0 1/2 1 3.1% 5.3 -- 5.4% -- 69 -- 1 7 0 26.2% 2 27.1
2020 PIT 15/15 1010 608 399 65.6% -2.3% 3803 33 10/20 5 2.8% 5.9 27 1.1% 20 518 17 25 11 0 -112.2% -49 60.8
2021 PIT 16/16 1076 605 390 64.5% -3.4% 3740 22 10/25 11 6.0% 5.5 27 -9.1% 25 85 24 20 5 1 -10.1% 1 35.6
2020: 16% Behind 53% Short 18% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 7.4 (28) YAC: 4.9 (20) ALEX: 0.7 2021: 17% Behind 53% Short 19% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 6.9 (33) YAC: 5.0 (21) ALEX: 0.7

Big Ben’s career wraps up with 14,457 DYAR. We now have DYAR going back to 1981 and Roethlisberger ends up eighth
all-time behind Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Brett Favre. Matt
Ryan has a good chance to catch him if he can stay healthy for a few more years. Joe Montana and Steve Young are the only
other two quarterbacks above 10,000 DYAR.
Roethlisberger’s signature on-field moment will always be the Super Bowl-winning touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes at
the end of the 2008 season. We would argue that the second-best moment is either a) converting third-and-19 in a tie game with
2:07 left in the 2011 AFC divisional round against Baltimore or b) outdueling Rodgers in December of 2009 with a walk-off
touchdown to Mike Wallace that gave Roethlisberger 503 passing yards for the game. His career neatly splits into the 2004-
2009 Roethlisberger that took sacks in bushels and the more-refined 2010-2018 vintage who became a higher completion
percentage passer and saved his body. Roethlisberger is destined to win arguments over Rivers and Eli Manning come Hall of
Fame time with his two Super Bowl rings and 165-81-1 career record.

Mason Rudolph Height: 6-5 Weight: 235 College: Oklahoma State Draft: 2018/3 (76) Born: 17-Jul-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 PIT 10/8 534 283 176 62.2% -1.1% 1765 13 9/9 4 5.7% 5.5 30 -23.0% 33 -225 30 21 42 0 -12.5% 0 34.4
2020 PIT 5/1 79 43 25 58.1% -6.0% 324 2 1/1 0 1.6% 7.2 -- -10.9% -- 1 -- 7 -6 0 -113.9% -5 77.8
2021 PIT 2/1 97 58 35 60.3% -7.4% 277 1 1/2 0 1.2% 4.9 -- -28.1% -- -65 -- 5 53 0 138.5% 21 39.5
2022 PIT 578 356 61.6% 3625 23 13 8 5.6 -17.8% 36 169 1 5.1%
2020: 10% Behind 57% Short 14% Mid 19% Deep aDOT: 10.0 (--) YAC: 4.1 (--) ALEX: 1.0 2021: 14% Behind 55% Short 23% Mid 7% Deep aDOT: 6.7 (--) YAC: 3.5 (--) ALEX: 2.3

Rudolph’s one start came against the No. 27 Lions pass defense, and he responded with a line that looks decent (if check-
downish) on paper. Contrast his -28.1% passing DVOA with his VOA without oppoent adjustments, which was -13.7%.
Asked at OTAs about the responsibility of helping Kenny Pickett learn the offense “as opposed to...”, Rudolph interjected
with “Being like someone else?” in what was perceived as a clear shot at Ben Roethlisberger. In the final year of his rookie
contract, Rudolph is likely the third quarterback on the roster and has no real history of good NFL performance beyond the
280 QUARTERBACKS

2019 preseason. He’s tall enough to be a backup somewhere, but if he were capable of being a starter, we’d probably have
some evidence of that by now.

Cooper Rush Height: 6-3 Weight: 225 College: Central Michigan Draft: 2017/FA Born: 21-Nov-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 DAL 2/0 5 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 0.0% 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- 0 0 0 -- -- --
2021 DAL 5/1 113 47 30 63.8% -1.6% 422 3 1/3 1 5.1% 8.1 -- 18.2% -- 91 -- 9 -8 0 -60.8% -4 41.8
2022 DAL 604 383 63.4% 4563 29 14 9 6.8 0.7% 44 67 1 -28.1%
2021: 9% Behind 57% Short 21% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 9.1 (--) YAC: 6.9 (--) ALEX: 0.7

At long last, Cooper Rush was able to start a National Football League game on Week 8’s Sunday Night Football. He actually
showed fairly well, with the third-highest average depth of target that week as he threw for 325 yards and two scores, including
a well-placed bomb to Cedrick Wilson for a score. He was otherwise mostly in play-action or throwing short comeback routes.
The scouting report on Rush favors his processing and accuracy over any kind of arm strength. He enters 2022 on the final year
of his contract, and that Sunday Night Football start will likely be most of his NFL legacy.

Matt Ryan Height: 6-4 Weight: 217 College: Boston College Draft: 2008/1 (3) Born: 17-May-1985 Age: 37 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 ATL 15/15 1087 616 408 66.2% 3.2% 4466 26 14/18 9 6.8% 6.3 15 6.5% 15 732 11 34 147 1 18.1% 38 57.6
2020 ATL 16/16 1113 626 407 65.0% 1.4% 4581 26 11/18 6 6.8% 6.5 20 7.6% 15 817 10 29 92 2 -30.3% -21 66.8
2021 ATL 17/17 1023 560 375 67.0% 0.8% 3968 20 12/19 11 7.2% 6.1 19 -4.3% 21 268 19 40 82 1 -61.0% -95 46.1
2022 IND 549 367 66.8% 4048 23 11 10 6.6 -3.1% 48 122 2 -23.6%
2020: 9% Behind 54% Short 24% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.7 (10) YAC: 4.0 (33) ALEX: 1.7 2021: 15% Behind 55% Short 22% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 7.3 (29) YAC: 4.6 (29) ALEX: 0.1

Ryan’s DVOA peaked at a league-high 39.1% during his MVP 2016 season. It dipped to 19.1% in 2017 and then to 18.2% in
2018. The rest you can read in the chart above: a little shelf as a slightly above average quarterback in 2019-20, then last year’s
sudden decline. DYAR tells the same story. So does Ryan’s QBR, which drops from 79.6 to 46.1, and his adjusted net yards per
attempt, which plunge from 9.03 to 5.92, each with only a slight upward hiccup from 2019 to 2020.
We can assume that the Falcons’ woeful supporting cast is partially responsible for Ryan’s 2021 dud of a season. But we
should also assume that Kyle Shanahan and Julio Jones had a lot to do with 2016, and that Ryan’s hefty bulk numbers in the
four years between are partially the result of being a high-volume passer on a team with a rickety-to-comical defense. We also
need to acknowledge that Ryan is now 37 and that his peak season came when he was 31; there’s no reason to believe that Ryan
will follow a Tom Brady aging non-curve.
All of this brings us around to the middling projections you see above. Ryan should be attempting fewer passes this year than
in recent years, because he’s playing for a better team. He’s also almost certainly in slow decline at the end of a long career, so
his rate stats are unlikely to bounce too far back toward 2017-20 levels. Fantasy gamers should expect a safe deep-league QB2
who will be there if you need him. Colts fans should see Philip Rivers 2.0, which probably looks pretty good after a year of
shovel-pass interceptions, but is still just a variation on a troubling theme.

Trevor Siemian Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Northwestern Draft: 2015/7 (250) Born: 26-Dec-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NYJ 1/1 20 6 3 50.0% -10.7% 3 0 0/0 0 24.2% -1.8 -- -157.6% -- -64 -- 0 0 0 -- -- 1.1
2021 NO 6/4 359 188 108 57.4% -3.3% 1154 11 3/3 3 5.7% 5.5 -- -4.1% -- 86 -- 9 20 1 7.6% 6 35.5
2022 CHI 554 349 63.0% 3698 24 16 9 5.9 -18.0% 41 113 2 -15.8%
2021: 16% Behind 49% Short 22% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 7.2 (--) YAC: 4.7 (--) ALEX: 2.2

Siemian was better than you think in the areas in which backup quarterbacks should struggle. For example, Siemian’s best
down was third/fourth down, by a lot. Siemian produced DVOA figures in the negative teens on both first and second down, but
on third/fourth down, Siemian roared with a 28.4% DVOA, one of the better marks in the entire league. Of course, Siemian was
working with about one-third the sample size of full-season starters, but still. Siemian was also decent under pressure, coming
in with a -61.2% DVOA that would have placed a bit better than league average if he had thrown enough passes to qualify.
 QUARTERBACKS 281

All that said, Siemian simply was not accurate enough on a down-to-down basis, especially when asked to work under center.
On 41 under-center dropbacks, Siemian produced a -51.1% DVOA, a stark contrast from Jameis Winston’s 44.0% DVOA over
56 such snaps. That split can be explained in part by Siemian’s middling arm strength and wishy-washy aggression, both of
which hurt his ability as a play-action passer and someone who can rifle in tight-window throws with fewer receivers running
routes to spread the field out.

Geno Smith Height: 6-3 Weight: 221 College: West Virginia Draft: 2013/2 (39) Born: 10-Oct-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 SEA 1/0 18 5 4 80.0% 2.1% 33 0 0/0 1 17.3% 5.0 -- -2.7% -- 3 -- 2 -2 0 -231.2% -27 5.2
2021 SEA 5/3 203 95 65 68.4% 8.5% 702 5 1/3 1 11.2% 5.4 -- -3.2% -- 54 -- 9 42 1 62.2% 29 45.8
2022 SEA 530 354 66.8% 3902 25 17 9 6.6 -13.1% 46 206 3 0.4%
2020: 20% Behind 80% Short 0% Mid 0% Deep aDOT: 5.0 (--) YAC: 3.5 (--) ALEX: -4.5 2021: 16% Behind 55% Short 19% Mid 10% Deep aDOT: 7.1 (--) YAC: 5.5 (--) ALEX: -1.2

The Seahawks had five games in 2021 with an offensive DVOA of -10.0% or worse: the shutout against Green Bay when
Russell Wilson returned too soon from his finger injury; a win over San Francisco in Week 13 when Gerald Everett personally
turned three completions into three turnovers; and Geno Smith’s three starts in Wilson’s absence, a streak that no doubt inspired
Wilson to rush back onto the field. It wasn’t all Smith’s fault—he completed 20 of 24 passes against Jacksonville, throwing for
two touchdowns and running for another, after which Seattle was content to run for no gain and punt the rest of the afternoon.
But one good performance against the NFL’s second-worst defense shouldn’t overshadow how badly Smith performed when
the game was on the line. He led nine drives against the Rams, Steelers, and Saints with a chance to tie the score or take the lead
in the fourth quarter or overtime. Combined numbers on those drives: 15-of-20 for 130 yards with no touchdowns, one intercep-
tion, and six, count ‘em, six sacks. Ryan Tannehill was the only quarterback to take more sacks in such clutch situations, and
he played in 17 games, not four. All told, Smith was sacked on 12.0% of his dropbacks last year; playing behind the same line,
Russell Wilson was sacked 7.6% of the time, and that was one of the 10 highest rates in the league. It’s no fluke, either—Smith’s
career sack rate (8.6%) is even higher than Wilson’s (8.3%). If you believe that the problem with Seattle’s offense was Wilson’s
tendency to hold onto the ball and get himself in trouble, then Smith is in no way the solution.

Matthew Stafford Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Georgia Draft: 2009/1 (1) Born: 7-Feb-1988 Age: 34 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 DET 8/8 558 291 187 64.3% 2.2% 2499 19 5/7 5 6.0% 7.7 4 28.8% 4 776 9 20 66 0 -40.1% -19 69.6
2020 DET 16/16 969 528 339 64.2% -1.0% 4084 26 10/14 2 7.2% 6.8 13 7.7% 14 684 14 29 112 0 23.0% 42 68.8
2021 LAR 17/17 1065 601 404 67.2% 0.5% 4886 41 17/23 5 5.1% 7.4 3 14.6% 9 1100 6 32 43 0 -15.8% -4 63.8
2022 LAR 629 419 66.6% 4826 36 15 5 6.9 7.2% 37 86 2 -10.1%
2020: 15% Behind 46% Short 26% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 9.0 (5) YAC: 5.1 (18) ALEX: 2.2 2021: 14% Behind 52% Short 21% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.5 (7) YAC: 5.3 (14) ALEX: 4.8

Popular opinion says that Stafford’s first season in L.A. was his best in the NFL, but that’s not really true. In 2011, when he
won the Comeback Player of the Year award, he set career highs with 5,038 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and 1,171 DYAR
that still stand, and his 15.0% DVOA was slightly higher than last year’s too. He had a few other seasons —2012, 2017, 2019—
with more fantasy points and/or better efficiency numbers as well. Stafford certainly enjoyed one of his better seasons, but it
was in the high end of his established range.
That includes interceptions. The 17 picks he threw in 2021 were not unprecedented—he has done it three times before, max-
ing out with 20 in 2009—but it was the first time Stafford had ever led the league. The quality of those picks may have been
worse than the quantity. Seven were underthrown deep balls, usually into double coverage. Four came when Stafford misman-
aged pressure, making a panicky lob while being taken down or letting an incoming rusher tip the ball. Some were simply
thrown directly to wide-open defenders, including a pick-six against Tennessee, one of the four Stafford threw on the year. It’s
stunning how often Stafford looked like an overwhelmed rookie. Mind you, even with those interceptions Stafford was still a
top-10 passer. But whereas a top-10 passer never won a playoff game in Detroit, he won a Super Bowl in Los Angeles.
Stafford spent time this spring in a sling after getting an anti-inflammatory injection in his throwing elbow. He may not throw
a football until training camp, but there is little concern that he won’t be ready by then.
282 QUARTERBACKS

Jarrett Stidham Height: 6-3 Weight: 214 College: Auburn Draft: 2019/4 (133) Born: 8-Aug-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 NE 3/0 15 4 2 50.0% -11.2% 14 0 1/1 0 19.7% 1.4 -- -306.6% -- -68 -- 2 -2 0 -- -- 0.1
2020 NE 5/0 85 44 22 50.0% -11.7% 256 2 3/2 0 8.3% 4.9 -- -50.5% -- -123 -- 7 7 0 -32.9% -7 16.4
2022 LV 571 373 65.3% 4031 26 15 8 6.3 -7.4% 43 126 2 -14.3%
2020: 16% Behind 59% Short 14% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 6.5 (--) YAC: 7.9 (--) ALEX: -3.2

Stidham was the last in a long line of Brady-era heir-apparent backup quarterbacks who never ended up panning out. He
appeared in eight total games in two years but none in 2021. His most significant action came in 2020 against the Kansas City
Chiefs, when he filled in for an injured Brian Hoyer and went 5-for-13 passing with a touchdown and two interceptions. What
we said last year about that 2020 playing time: Stidham was jumpy in the pocket with poor coverage reading skills and a lack
of accuracy. Now a member of the Las Vegas Raiders, his biggest upside is knowing Josh McDaniels’ offense. Sitting behind
Derek Carr and Nick Mullens, though, it would take quite the string of events for Stidham to see the field.

Tua Tagovailoa Height: 6-0 Weight: 217 College: Alabama Draft: 2020/1 (5) Born: 2-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 MIA 10/9 572 290 186 64.1% -3.5% 1814 11 5/13 1 7.6% 5.4 30 -8.5% 26 56 26 36 109 3 -0.9% 18 52.9
2021 MIA 13/12 777 388 263 67.8% -0.6% 2653 16 10/13 9 5.6% 6.1 18 -0.7% 18 280 18 42 128 3 -2.2% 18 49.7
2022 MIA 502 343 68.3% 3699 23 13 9 6.5 -2.9% 50 168 3 -8.5%
2020: 11% Behind 58% Short 19% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 7.8 (24) YAC: 4.1 (32) ALEX: 2.5 2021: 14% Behind 54% Short 24% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 7.1 (32) YAC: 4.7 (27) ALEX: 2.9

Tagovailoa is unlikely to become better than the quarterback drafted one pick after him in 2020, Justin Herbert. But the public
criticism of his play to date seems excessive and may confuse his coaches’ choices to avoid certain passes with Tagovailoa’s
inability to throw those passes. Tagovailoa actually led regular quarterbacks with a 50.0% completion rate and had the third-
highest 119.3% DVOA on deep passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air in 2021. But he attempted just 30 of those deep passes,
likely as much or more because of poor pass protection as Tagovailoa’s arm strength. The Dolphins had a 47% Pass Block Win
Rate that was the lowest in football last season. And their RPO-heavy offense helped Tagovailoa get rid of the ball quickly—his
2.52-second average time to throw was third quickest per Next Gen Stats—and avoid the hits he would undoubtedly have taken
in a more traditional offense with that personnel. This season should be telling. While Tagovailoa probably won’t throw down-
field like Patrick Mahomes with new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme that emphasizes yards after the catch, he
should take more deep shots with better protection from new linemen Terron Armstead and Connor Williams and with maybe
the fastest receiver in the sport in Tyreek Hill.

Ryan Tannehill Height: 6-4 Weight: 207 College: Texas A&M Draft: 2012/1 (8) Born: 27-Jul-1988 Age: 34 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 TEN 12/10 651 286 201 70.3% 7.7% 2742 22 6/5 6 9.8% 8.1 1 28.0% 5 773 10 43 185 4 48.9% 82 62.2
2020 TEN 16/16 1051 481 315 65.5% 1.1% 3819 33 7/12 6 5.4% 7.2 10 19.6% 6 1046 6 43 266 7 49.3% 127 78.7
2021 TEN 17/17 1068 531 357 67.2% 1.4% 3734 21 14/23 10 8.4% 5.9 24 -11.7% 27 -20 27 55 270 7 28.8% 121 55.9
2022 TEN 507 336 66.3% 3625 24 14 9 6.4 -9.7% 54 269 5 13.1%
2020: 9% Behind 54% Short 28% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 8.6 (12) YAC: 4.9 (21) ALEX: 1.2 2021: 16% Behind 52% Short 23% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 7.7 (25) YAC: 5.0 (20) ALEX: 0.5

Cracks started to show in the Tannehill foundation as the situation around him got worse. Tannehill was 14th in DVOA
without pressure, but crumbled under it—only Ben Roethlisberger and Zach Wilson had worse DVOAs under pressure. He
was knocked down the third most of any quarterback behind Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz, with the fifth-highest rate of
knockdowns behind Ryan, Wentz, Joe Burrow, and Justin Fields. Taking sacks has always been an issue for Tannehill and the
increased pressure didn’t help. Tannehill was one of six quarterbacks to have negative DVOA on plays inside the pocket, and
that came with the seventh-lowest rate of plays outside the pocket. Things potentially could have been worse with 10 dropped
interceptions. Tannehill’s 4.3% adjusted interception rate was tied for third highest in the NFL.
 QUARTERBACKS 283

Tyrod Taylor Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Virginia Tech Draft: 2011/6 (180) Born: 3-Aug-1989 Age: 33 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 LAC 8/0 32 6 4 66.7% -5.0% 33 1 0/0 0 -1.6% 5.5 -- 59.3% -- 23 -- 10 7 0 -48.0% -8 3.1
2020 LAC 2/1 75 30 16 53.3% -7.8% 208 0 0/0 0 8.8% 6.5 -- -0.7% -- 20 -- 6 7 0 -61.4% -14 21.3
2021 HOU 6/6 323 150 91 60.7% -4.0% 966 5 5/5 3 8.0% 5.2 -- -30.9% -- -210 -- 19 151 3 11.8% 20 40.4
2022 NYG 515 309 60.0% 3409 18 15 11 5.9 -21.8% 78 522 7 20.1%
2020: 7% Behind 41% Short 31% Mid 21% Deep aDOT: 11.2 (--) YAC: 5.0 (--) ALEX: 7.0 2021: 13% Behind 58% Short 19% Mid 9% Deep aDOT: 7.5 (--) YAC: 5.4 (--) ALEX: 1.7

We’ve seen this movie. At some point, a rookie quarterback is going to replace Taylor. It happened in Buffalo (Nathan Pe-
terman), Cleveland (Baker Mayfield), Los Angeles (Justin Herbert), and Houston last year (Davis Mills). It won’t happen this
season, but Taylor is under contract through 2023, when the Giants likely will be in position to draft one of the top quarterback
prospects. In the meantime, Tayor will back up the oft-injured Daniel Jones. Though Taylor has been a below-average quarter-
back for a while now, the Giants should remain a functional offense when he fills in. Outside of a brief bout with Glennonitis
last season (three interceptions in a Week 9 loss to the Dolphins), Taylor generally takes good care of the football. He’s one of
only nine quarterbacks in NFL history to have an interception rate below 2.0%. The others: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Colin
Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes. Taylor is also the only quarter-
back on that list who has a touchdown rate below 4.0%.

Kyle Trask Height: 6-5 Weight: 240 College: Florida Draft: 2021/2 (64) Born: 6-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2022 TB 561 334 59.5% 3657 23 16 10 5.8 -13.8% 41 142 2 -4.9%

Trask didn’t take a single snap in 2021, making it difficult to evaluate his rookie year. He struggled some in preseason, com-
pleting fewer than half his passes and throwing a pair of interceptions. He wasn’t the player of choice when Tom Brady needed
a rest; Blaine Gabbert picked up those snaps. Not good enough to beat out Gabbert isn’t exactly high praise, but it’s not a huge
red flag either. The Buccaneers didn’t want a second-round pick to be potentially leading a team with Super Bowl aspirations
fresh out of college. This season, however, he’d better beat out Gabbert and Ryan Griffin to earn that backup spot, showing
some progression at least in practice. If he doesn’t, and he has a second season of no stats, there’s no reason for the Buccaneers
not to dip back into the draft next year to find Brady’s heir apparent. If Trask wants to be in that conversation, he needs to make
forward moves now, even if we don’t get to see them.

Mitchell Trubisky Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: North Carolina Draft: 2017/1 (2) Born: 20-Aug-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Red

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 CHI 15/15 960 516 326 63.2% -3.7% 3138 17 10/15 5 7.0% 5.3 33 -11.0% 27 5 27 48 193 2 -17.6% -12 39.5
2020 CHI 10/9 570 297 199 67.0% -1.5% 2055 16 8/14 6 6.6% 6.1 24 -7.5% 24 79 24 33 195 1 -7.0% 9 61.8
2021 BUF 6/0 33 8 6 75.0% 1.4% 43 0 1/1 0 1.2% 5.4 -- -89.2% -- -39 -- 13 24 1 135.2% 24 73.2
2022 PIT 559 359 64.2% 3778 25 15 9 6.0 -12.3% 66 254 3 -8.1%
2020: 14% Behind 51% Short 24% Mid 11% Deep aDOT: 7.9 (23) YAC: 5.0 (19) ALEX: 1.7 2021: 0% Behind 75% Short 25% Mid 0% Deep aDOT: 5.1 (--) YAC: 2.8 (--) ALEX: 0.0

Buffalo’s victory cigar last year, Trubisky attempted more rushes than he did passes, only throwing multiple passes against
the Colts, in a game Buffalo where allowed 185 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor and were trailing 38-7 at one point. Signed to
a heavily incentive-laden contract by Pittsburgh, Trubisky will probably have a better chance of playing this year. To the extent
that any quarterback can be a second-contract sleeper, Trubisky makes some sense in that vein. Matt Nagy’s offenses have been
garbage no matter who has been under center. But it’s more likely that Trubisky is a high-variance backup quarterback than
anything worth being excited about at this point.
284 QUARTERBACKS

P.J. Walker Height: 5-11 Weight: 212 College: Temple Draft: 2017/FA Born: 26-Feb-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 CAR 4/1 107 56 32 57.1% -5.6% 368 1 5/5 1 7.3% 5.6 -- -71.1% -- -217 -- 5 -2 0 -121.6% -17 12.6
2021 CAR 6/1 126 66 36 54.5% -11.5% 362 1 3/3 3 10.1% 4.4 -- -40.9% -- -121 -- 7 13 0 -103.0% -26 19.3
2022 CAR 573 345 60.2% 3545 19 19 16 5.5 -29.6% 71 193 2 -33.4%
2020: 19% Behind 43% Short 19% Mid 20% Deep aDOT: 10.4 (--) YAC: 4.4 (--) ALEX: 2.7 2021: 10% Behind 46% Short 32% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 9.1 (--) YAC: 3.8 (--) ALEX: 0.5

The former XFL star has now started two games in the NFL and, well, he looked like someone who should be playing in
the spring. He has thrown eight interceptions in just 122 NFL pass attempts—we have seen worse, but not many in modern
times. Walker’s chances of sticking around in the big leagues took a hit when Carolina drafted Matt Corral, but that doesn’t
mean they’re at zero. Corral has a lot of work to do before he’s ready for an NFL offense, and that means Walker might end up
keeping the QB2 job purely based on his experience with the team. If not, well, the XFL is supposedly reviving the Houston
Roughnecks for 2023, and his former coach June Jones is rumored to be on the Seattle Dragons staff. Hope springs eternal.

Deshaun Watson Height: 6-2 Weight: 221 College: Clemson Draft: 2017/1 (12) Born: 14-Sep-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Red

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 HOU 15/15 1026 495 333 67.3% 2.6% 3852 26 12/17 10 8.1% 6.7 14 9.5% 12 722 13 82 413 7 9.9% 77 68.7
2020 HOU 16/16 978 544 382 70.2% 5.5% 4823 33 7/12 8 9.3% 7.7 2 20.2% 5 1234 5 90 444 3 -14.9% -12 71.0
2022 CLE 575 404 70.3% 4659 31 10 10 7.3 7.8% 91 468 4 -0.8%
2020: 12% Behind 49% Short 28% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 9.1 (4) YAC: 5.2 (17) ALEX: 2.1

The highlight of Watson’s 2021 season was when he was videoed asking reporters at training camp who kept cameras on him:
“Why are y’all always filming me? It’s the same sh*t.” Frankly, the NFL owes the Texans a debt of gratitude for carrying him
on the active roster all season and preventing the G.O.O.D.E.L.L. RNG punishment generator from having to actually make
a decision. The Browns, a team that looks ready to win, will not extend the same courtesy. We’ve got a projection here for 17
games. He’s probably not playing 17 games; you can read the Cleveland chapter if you need to rehash why. The legacy Watson
leaves in Houston is roughly the same as the one left by the North Haverbrook Monorail.

Carson Wentz Height: 6-5 Weight: 237 College: North Dakota State Draft: 2016/1 (2) Born: 30-Dec-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Yellow

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 PHI 16/16 1169 607 388 63.9% -0.5% 4039 27 7/16 16 6.5% 5.9 25 0.1% 20 476 17 62 243 1 6.1% 56 60.8
2020 PHI 12/12 808 437 251 57.4% -6.5% 2620 16 15/21 10 10.0% 4.7 36 -35.9% 34 -780 36 52 276 5 9.2% 62 49.7
2021 IND 17/17 1092 516 322 62.4% -2.5% 3563 27 7/12 8 6.3% 6.1 20 1.8% 16 461 16 57 215 1 4.1% 38 54.7
2022 WAS 556 348 62.6% 3804 25 11 9 6.1 -10.5% 52 213 2 -7.1%
2020: 13% Behind 49% Short 24% Mid 14% Deep aDOT: 9.3 (2) YAC: 4.0 (35) ALEX: 2.9 2021: 15% Behind 53% Short 19% Mid 12% Deep aDOT: 8.0 (16) YAC: 5.1 (17) ALEX: 2.2

The book on Wentz last year was to keep throwing zone coverages at him. His DVOA declined by 14.6% against zone in
2021 and by 14.3% against zone in 2020. Wentz was hit in motion a league-high 12 times last season and a league-high 11 times
in 2020, and the Colts had a -36.3% DVOA on throws to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. Defenses were able to wait
out his big mistakes while they made him hold the ball longer, and the only element of the short game to keep defenses honest
(and hide a lot of bad Wentz play) was Jonathan Taylor carries. There will be no Jonathan Taylor carries for Wentz this year in
his return to the NFC East.
“I’ve seen the energy level rise,” Ron Rivera said in April. “When I talk to [Wentz’s] new teammates there’s an excitement
in their voice. ... You can feel that energy spike.” The sugar rush of pretending to solve quarterback problems makes for a fun
offseason story, but you can ask the Colts about how that energy spike felt during and after the 2021 season.
 QUARTERBACKS 285

Mike White Height: 6-5 Weight: 224 College: South Florida Draft: 2018/5 (171) Born: 25-Mar-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 NYJ 4/3 211 132 88 66.7% 1.0% 953 5 8/11 0 3.2% 6.9 -- 6.7% -- 161 -- 5 -1 0 19.2% 5 50.5
2022 NYJ 673 422 62.7% 4729 29 26 8 6.2 -16.9% 46 104 1 -22.4%
2021: 16% Behind 52% Short 24% Mid 8% Deep aDOT: 6.0 (--) YAC: 6.4 (--) ALEX: -0.4

The stars that shine twice as bright burn half as long. If anything, White was the first real proof to Zach Wilson that it’s OK
to check down if a play doesn’t work out. After the ups and downs of Wilson’s first few weeks, a PCL strain opened the door
for White to get his first NFL start. The rest was history—literally. White dinked-and-dunked his way to 37 completions, 405
yards, three touchdowns, and a major upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Those 37 completions, an NFL record for a
quarterback’s debut, landed White’s jersey and game ball in Canton for the remainder of the season.
The honeymoon was short-lived. Teams quickly figured out that sitting on underneath routes brought White right back down
to earth. White had the accuracy to win underneath but lacked the arm strength to beat any defense over the top. Even though
he was eventually benched for Joe Flacco, the Mike White Experience was worth it if only to show Wilson that hero ball isn’t
always the answer.

Malik Willis Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Liberty Draft: 2022/3 (86) Born: 25-May-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2022 TEN 537 333 62.0% 3694 24 13 16 6.1 -16.4% 126 667 6 -7.2%

The draft journey for Willis was a wild ride. At times he was considered a top-five pick, but with a lack of excitement around
this quarterback class, the market overcorrected and he dropped to the third round as the third quarterback selected. Willis isn’t
the perfect prospect, but he might have exactly the type of skills desired for a developmental prospect. He has a rocket arm,
though his accuracy can be inconsistent. Willis was only on-target on 45% of intermediate passes in 2021, though his short-area
accuracy was among the best in the draft class (83.7% on-target rate).
Willis might be the second or third most dangerous runner at quarterback as soon as he steps on the field. He led all college
runners with at least 100 carries with a 42.1% broken tackle rate; the next-highest was 36.4%. With that type of ability on the
ground, Willis has a set floor for the value he could bring as a quarterback. His passing performance and the timing of when he
gets on the field will determine whether he can be a mid-round steal or just another developmental backup that is more promise
than substance.

Russell Wilson Height: 5-11 Weight: 215 College: Wisconsin Draft: 2012/3 (75) Born: 29-Nov-1988 Age: 34 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 SEA 16/16 1124 516 341 66.1% 4.9% 4110 31 5/7 8 7.9% 6.8 13 24.3% 7 1265 4 75 342 3 -0.3% 33 69.8
2020 SEA 16/16 1047 558 384 68.8% 3.9% 4212 40 13/14 7 8.1% 6.4 22 8.1% 13 773 11 83 513 2 21.3% 99 73.7
2021 SEA 14/14 788 400 259 64.8% 2.4% 3113 25 6/11 6 7.2% 6.6 12 7.5% 12 532 15 43 183 2 -15.9% -7 54.7
2022 DEN 607 396 65.2% 4584 32 11 8 6.8 5.2% 55 293 2 11.3%
2020: 14% Behind 55% Short 18% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.9 (7) YAC: 4.8 (24) ALEX: 2.9 2021: 16% Behind 48% Short 16% Mid 20% Deep aDOT: 10.2 (1) YAC: 5.3 (11) ALEX: 5.5

Wilson and Ciara purchased a $25-million mansion outside Denver in the offseason which “merges rusticity with meditative
and a comprehensive amenities list,” according to the American Luxury website. The cozy cottage includes an indoor half-court,
theater, bar, Pilates studio, and a library “where a carved fireplace mantel and rail ladder-accessible bookshelves can be spotted.”
Ciara could be spotted on the cover of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue wearing a Broncos-themed cowboy hat in the pool,
and the couple is still active in the Seattle area, where they opened their second House of LR&C (love, respect, and care, not
“Look: it’s Russ and Ciara!”) fashion boutique in May. The couple even adopted a puppy they named Bronco, angering PETA for
some reason. (Maybe Ciara keeps the puppy under the cowboy hat when swimming or something.) Wilson does a tremendous job
compartmentalizing his role as the Sonny Bono of a fame-welcoming celebrity couple from his all-business football persona; Tom
Brady has also done well in this regard, but there’s a difference between Paris Match treating Gisele like the Goddess of Benevo-
lence and Ciara dishing about getting busy with Wilson in an airplane on a daytime talk show. Anyway, Tim Tebow also named a
puppy Bronco when he joined the Broncos, then changed its name to Bronx when he joined the Jets. (PETA was unavailable for
comment.) Bronco/Bronx passed away in 2019, and while you may believe he went to doggo heaven, Tebow almost certainly does
not. Life is fleeting, the past rolls up behind us like cheap carpeting, and enjoy your stringy roast beef sandwich.
286 QUARTERBACKS

Zach Wilson Height: 6-3 Weight: 210 College: Brigham Young Draft: 2021/1 (2) Born: 3-Aug-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2021 NYJ 13/13 741 383 213 55.6% -10.2% 2334 9 11/18 5 10.7% 4.6 34 -32.3% 34 -569 34 29 185 4 13.1% 38 28.2
2022 NYJ 530 323 60.9% 3476 19 13 7 5.8 -20.9% 37 189 3 17.8%
2021: 16% Behind 51% Short 20% Mid 13% Deep aDOT: 8.0 (17) YAC: 5.2 (16) ALEX: 1.5

Wilson was always going to be a project coming out of the draft. It was a calculated gamble on the high-upside, backyard-
football style of play that the Jets could afford to take given the state of their roster. The good news? There’s only up from here.
Numbers-wise, Wilson quite literally couldn’t do worse: 34th of 34 quarterbacks in DYAR, DVOA, and CPOE.
The biggest issue with Wilson early on was his hellbent determination trying to turn every broken play into a highlight. His
scrambling and downfield passing ability let him thrive out of structure, so much so that he’d either a) forgo an easier check-
down to target a downfield look that wasn’t there, or b) leave the pocket before it collapsed to force an out-of-structure play.
Wilson’s processing and willingness to work within structure improved as the season went on. By the time that happened,
though, the Jets had already lost starting tackle Mekhi Becton and two top wide receivers in Elijah Moore and Corey Davis.
The signs of improvement bode well for Wilson’s sophomore campaign. Unlike the end of last season, the heavy investments
in protection and offensive weapons mean Wilson has no excuses.

Jameis Winston Height: 6-4 Weight: 231 College: Florida State Draft: 2015/1 (1) Born: 6-Jan-1994 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2019 TB 16/16 1149 626 380 60.7% 0.7% 5109 33 30/40 12 7.6% 7.2 7 -9.8% 24 57 23 59 250 1 12.6% 53 53.7
2020 NO 4/0 54 11 7 63.6% -12.3% 75 0 0/1 0 15.4% 4.9 -- -20.4% -- -7 -- 8 -6 0 18.3% 2 13.5
2021 NO 7/7 371 161 95 59.0% -2.3% 1170 14 3/4 2 7.3% 6.3 -- 13.6% -- 268 -- 32 166 1 40.3% 70 64.4
2022 NO 553 343 62.0% 3852 31 11 8 6.2 -3.9% 72 326 3 -0.8%
2020: 18% Behind 55% Short 27% Mid 0% Deep aDOT: 4.6 (--) YAC: 8.7 (--) ALEX: -4.8 2021: 17% Behind 47% Short 22% Mid 15% Deep aDOT: 8.4 (--) YAC: 6.1 (--) ALEX: 1.6

The seven Jameis Winston games last season were basically the best possible outcome, considering his skill set. Winston
is always going to take big risks, looking for big rewards, and his 8.7% touchdown rate and 1.9% interception rate both were
career bests. But just as Winston’s 30-interception season in 2019 was fluky, so was his three-interception season in 2021.
Winston actually had his least-accurate passing year to date, per SIS charting, with just 70.1% of his pass attempts charted as
catchable. That placed him squarely between Baker Mayfield and Mike Glennon, fourth worst in the league among players
with at least 150 attempts. Winston’s numbers will never be super high because he throws deep so often, but he still had a lower
completion rate than expected. Those deep shots can easily have defensive backs camping underneath them, and it’s just ran-
domness and small sample size that so few of them actually ended up in the hands of defenders. The best way to keep Winston
out of trouble is to keep him out of danger. His DVOA dropped 166.0% when he was pressured, which would have been the
second-largest drop in the league had he qualified for rankings.

John Wolford Height: 6-1 Weight: 199 College: Wake Forest Draft: 2018/FA Born: 16-Oct-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green

Year Tm G/GS Snaps Att Cmp C% CPOE Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR
2020 LAR 1/1 73 38 22 57.9% 1.2% 231 0 1/1 0 3.1% 5.6 -- -35.9% -- -63 -- 6 56 0 25.6% 14 74.7
2021 LAR 3/0 24 4 1 25.0% -50.7% 5 0 1/0 0 0.0% -0.6 -- -317.0% -- -81 -- 2 -1 0 -108.3% -7 0.1
2022 LAR 553 333 60.2% 3700 23 15 11 5.9 -13.5% 94 401 4 -7.6%
2020: 19% Behind 39% Short 19% Mid 22% Deep aDOT: 9.2 (--) YAC: 4.2 (--) ALEX: 1.2

Four years into his pro career, Wolford largely remains a mystery. All of Wolford’s action last season came with the Rams up
by at least 30 points in the fourth quarter. In addition to his limited regular-season action, he also started a playoff game in 2020,
but was knocked out by a neck injury 10 minutes in. Even his exhibition resume is mostly blank—he didn’t play any preseason
games in 2021 due to an appendectomy, and nobody played any in 2020 due to a pandemic, so we’re left with three he played
with the Rams in 2019 and one with the Jets in 2018. Combined numbers in those four games: 56 passes thrown, 48% comple-
tion rate, barely 5.0 yards per attempt. He must look better than that in practice, because the Rams re-signed him in March, with
2020 UDFA Bryce Perkins his only competition for the backup job behind Matthew Stafford.
 QUARTERBACKS 287

Going Deep
Matt Barkley, BUF: As Josh Allen’s cap hit escalates, the Bills have lost the luxury of signing a borderline starter like Mitchell
Trubisky as their backup quarterback. Re-enter Barkley, who jumped around various practice squads in 2021 but had several
highlights as the Bills backup from 2018 to 2020 including a win in his one start and strong play in the 2020 regular-season
finale that cost the division-rival Dolphins a playoff berth. Barkley is on the back nine of his NFL career and maybe the 18th
hole if the Bills decide to stick with Allen and Case Keenum.

David Blough, DET: Blough took four snaps last year, commandeering the Lions’ final clock-killing drive in a blowout loss
to the Eagles. He scrambled for 6 yards on first down only to be sacked for exactly 6 yards on the following play, bringing his
lowly contributions to equilibrium. The good news for Blough is the Lions didn’t add anyone to threaten his QB3 spot, not even
an undrafted rookie.

Joshua Dobbs, CLE: If Deshaun Watson is suspended for the entire season, which seems likely, this former Pittsburgh third-
string quarterback becomes the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Dobbs has thrown only 17 passes in the regular season over five
seasons, with 2.6 yards per attempt. He spent last year on injured reserve with a toe injury.

Jacob Eason, SEA: Eason started as a freshman at Georgia but lost the job to Jake Fromm, then transferred to his home-state
Washington Huskies. The Colts then drafted him in the fourth round in 2020. Eason’s only regular-season game was against the
Rams last year, when he completed two of five passes for 25 yards with an interception. Indianapolis waived him in October
and the Seahawks snagged him, knowing that a guy who got his butt kicked by L.A. would feel right at home on their roster. A
fringe NFL player who wouldn’t make a lot of teams, Eason might end up starting in Seattle.

Sam Ehlinger, IND: Ehlinger is a second-year quarterback from the University of Texas who led the school to 27 wins, fourth-
most in Longhorns QB history. He entered the Senior Bowl with options to switch positions, but the Colts drafted him in the
sixth round to play quarterback. Since then, he has come on in short-yardage situations, running the ball three times last year.
He has yet to throw a pass in the regular season, and the jury is still out on whether he can be the Colts quarterback of the future,
although trading for Matt Ryan doesn’t bode well for him.

Feleipe Franks, ATL: At the moment, Franks is one of two quarterbacks in NFL history to have thrown an interception on
100% of his pass attempts. That means there’s nowhere to go but up! The Falcons didn’t seem to know what to do with Franks
last season, when he played seven snaps at quarterback, three as a tight end, and four as a receiver, along with a handful of
special teams plays. The world does not need a discount Taysom Hill.

Garrett Gilbert, FA: Another year, another nondescript emergency start for Gilbert, who filled in for Taylor Heinicke during
a COVID crunch for a Tuesday night Washington loss to the Eagles. The Raiders signed Gilbert in the offseason but released
him a few weeks later in favor of Nick Mullens, which is the sort of thing that happens when you are a 31-year-old career
third-stringer.

Sam Howell, WAS: A cautionary tale of Way-Too-Early 2022 Mock Draft Szn, Howell fell all the way to the fifth round before
the Commanders stopped his slide. His completion percentage fell nearly seven points in his final season at North Carolina, and
he threw for six fewer touchdowns (which was especially concerning because his total had already fallen by eight touchdowns
the season before). His mechanics and throwing power give him highlight-reel plays, but he’s only 6-foot-even and gets hung
up in his process and stuck on targets. It’s hard to name many quarterbacks who have fallen this far down in the draft and de-
veloped into a legitimate starter.

Trace McSorley, ARI: McSorley has seen limited professional action since being drafted by the Ravens in the sixth round back
in 2019. Arizona signed him off the Ravens’ practice squad late in 2021, and he enters this year behind Kyler Murray and Colt
McCoy on the depth chart. McSorley was a pretty effective rusher in college at Penn State, and as such, he profiles much more
similarly to Murray from a stylistic perspective than the veteran McCoy.

Kellen Mond, MIN: Mond entered last season as a third-round rookie who brought some promise as a decent athlete with a
good arm and experience in Jimbo Fisher’s NFL-like offense. Turns out none of that did Mond any favors. He spent most of the
year as QB3 behind Sean Mannion, and only saw action late in a Week 17 blowout against Green Bay. That said, it took Mond
a few years of starting experience to ramp up at Texas A&M, so perhaps that will be the deal here as well.
288 QUARTERBACKS

Chris Oladokun, PIT: Oladokun had a real journey in college—he was Quinton Flowers’ backup at South Florida, transferred
to Samford, lost the starting job there, then transferred to FCS South Dakota State for his senior season. He tore it up with the
Jackrabbits, with 3,164 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and just seven picks. That season makes up almost half of his entire
collegiate production. The Steelers used a seventh-round pick on him and following Dwayne Haskins’ untimely death (Rest in
Peace), Oladokun enters training camp as the fourth quarterback behind Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph.
He will probably get a practice squad role, in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.

EJ Perry, JAX: After throwing for 3,033 yards, rushing for 402, and scoring 30 total touchdowns for Brown University in
2021, Perry generated some buzz that he could become the first Ivy League quarterback to be drafted since Ryan Fitzpatrick in
2005. That didn’t happen, but he was hotly pursued as an undrafted free agent. He initially agreed to terms with the Eagles but
backed out upon learning that Carson Strong was headed to Philadelphia. In Jacksonville, he’ll challenge Jake Luton for the
No. 3 spot on the depth chart.

Nathan Peterman, CHI: Peterman’s career quarterback rating (34.0) is lower than the rating a rando would earn by wandering
on the field and tossing one throw into the ground in front of him (39.6), and he hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2018. The
Bears signed Peterman after the draft to provide whatever services Peterman is supposed to be able to provide. In the NFL, it’s
better to have proven incapable of doing a job than to have never done the job.

Brock Purdy, SF: Purdy had a successful college career at Iowa State, winning the starting quarterback job early in his fresh-
man year and piling up awards thereafter. After making the All-Big 12 second team in his sophomore year behind future Eagles
starter Jalen Hurts, Purdy snagged back-to-back All-Big 12 first team selections in his final two seasons. That said, Purdy was
not much of an NFL prospect (as evidenced by him being Mr. Irrelevant in a weak quarterback draft) with a slow delivery and
an inability to make tight-window throws. If he sees the field at all for San Francisco, something has gone horribly wrong.

Josh Rosen, ATL: Rosen only threw 11 passes for the Falcons, but managed to add two more interceptions, bring his career
total to 21 in barely 500 passes. His 3.04 adjusted net yards/attempt are the worst for any 21st century quarterback with at least
500 pass attempts. You would expect his career to be over, but there are still 27 teams out there who haven’t had a crack at
fixing him yet!

Brett Rypien, DEN: Rypien threw three interceptions in his lone NFL start in 2020 and two incompletions in his lone appear-
ance (mop-up duty in the Week 17 loss to the Chargers) last year. He completed just 47.1% of his passes in the 2021 preseason
and threw two interceptions in the 2019 preseason. It’s easy to lump all the AFC West backup quarterbacks into the “bad, but af-
fordable” category, but Chase Daniel, Chad Henne, and Nick Mullens all belong a notch above Rypien. Fortunately for Rypien,
John Elway knew his uncle, which generally equates to an extra year of job security in Denver.

Easton Stick, LAC: A pesky scrambler and the transitional North Dakota State fossil between Carson Wentz and Trey Lance,
Stick should have no trouble holding off UDFA Brandon Peters for the QB3 job for the Chargers. In the unfortunate event that
anything happens to Justin Herbert, Stick would probably get some starting opportunities after Chase Daniel does his veteran
mentor thing (complete 70% of his passes in a 23-13, loss, but for just 107 yards, then suffer a minor back injury) and might
produce enough rushing yards to make things interesting in the DFS bargain bin.

Carson Strong, PHI: As good as Strong was at Nevada in 2021 (70.1% completion rate, 4,175 passing yards, 36 touchdowns),
he could not quiet concerns about the durability of his right knee. When the strong-armed quarterback slipped out of the draft
entirely, the Eagles signed him to a deal that includes $320,000 in guarantees, the most given to an undrafted free agent this
offseason. Translation: He’ll be sticking around Philly awhile. When we ran QBASE on him, back when we thought he might
be a top-100 pick, it gave him just a 6.1% chance of being an “adequate starter” or better. Still, if he amounts to “cheap, depend-
able backup,” the Eagles will take that.

Nate Sudfeld, SF: Sudfeld did not appear in a game in 2021, and his most recent action in 2020 sparked controversy because
he replaced Jalen Hurts at quarterback for Philadelphia late in a one-score game with playoff implications against Washington.
Sudfeld has attempted a total of 37 passes since being drafted in 2016. He will be competing with rookie Brock Purdy for a
roster spot (and a potential backup job should the 49ers go through with trading Jimmy Garoppolo).
 QUARTERBACKS 289

Skylar Thompson, MIA: Throwing just two more touchdowns (42) than games started (40) in his career at Kansas State and
entering the NFL at 25 years old, Thompson does not profile as a future starter. Injuries seem unlikely to help those chances in
the short term since the Dolphins paid veteran Teddy Bridgewater to be one of the league’s best backups. But better short than
deep accuracy and an advanced ability to work through progressions could make the seventh-round rookie a good fit for Mike
McDaniel’s presumably YAC-oriented offensive system.

Logan Woodside, TEN: Woodside had served as the lone backup for Ryan Tannehill, but that role will likely go to rookie
Malik Willis. It was a good gig while it lasted. Woodside’s biggest on-field contributions came at the end of games. In 2021, he
got to kneel out wins against the Jaguars, Rams, and Chiefs, and knelt a game into overtime against the Colts. He has completed
just one pass in his NFL career but run 13 times … for 4 yards.

Bailey Zappe, NE: Zappe arrived at Houston Baptist as a zero-star recruit out of high school. After four years, Zappe used his
extra year of eligibility to follow offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to Western Kentucky, where he promptly set new single-
season FBS records with 5,967 passing yards and 62 passing touchdowns and led Western Kentucky to the ninth-best offensive
FEI in FBS. The Patriots surprised many draftniks by using a fourth-round pick on Zappe, taking him off the board before Sam
Howell. Zappe fits as the prototypical Bill Belichick backup: an average arm, but a player with high football IQ who can pick
up the Patriots’ offense quickly.
 Running Backs
I n the following section we provide the last three years of
statistics, as well as a 2022 KUBIAK projection, for every
running back who either played a significant role in 2021 or is
DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), along
with the player’s rank (Rk) in both. These metrics compare
every carry by the running back to a league-average baseline
expected to do so in 2022. based on the game situations in which that running back car-
The first line contains biographical data—each player’s ried the ball. DVOA and DYAR are also adjusted based on the
name, height, weight, college, draft position, birth date, opposing defense. The methods used to compute these num-
and age. Height and weight are the best data we could find; bers are described in detail in the “Statistical Toolbox” intro-
weight, of course, can fluctuate during the offseason. Age is duction in the front of the book. The important distinctions
very simple, the number of years between the player’s birth between them is that DVOA is a rate statistic, while DYAR
year and 2022, but birthdate is provided if you want to figure is a cumulative statistic. Thus, a higher DVOA means more
out exact age. value per play, while a higher DYAR means more aggregate
Draft position gives draft year and round, with the overall value over the entire season.
pick number with which the player was taken in parentheses. To qualify for ranking in rushing DVOA and DYAR, a run-
In the sample table, it says that Joe Mixon was chosen in the ning back must have had 100 carries in that season. Last year,
2017 NFL draft in the second round with the 48th overall pick. 50 running backs qualified to be ranked in these stats, com-
Undrafted free agents are listed as “FA” with the year they pared to 47 backs in 2020 and 45 in 2019.
came into the league, even if they were only in training camp Numbers without opponent adjustment (YAR and VOA)
or on a practice squad. can be found on our website, FootballOutsiders.com.
To the far right of the first line is the player’s Risk for fan- Success Rate (Suc%), listed along with rank, represents
tasy football in 2022. As explained in the quarterback section, running back consistency as measured by successful running
the standard is for players to be marked Green. Players with plays divided by total running plays. (The definition for suc-
higher than normal risk are marked Yellow, and players with cess is explained in the “Statistical Toolbox” introduction in
the highest risk are marked Red. Players who are most likely the front of the book.) A player with high DVOA and a low
to match or surpass our forecast—primarily second-stringers Success Rate mixes long runs with plays on which he was
with low projections but also some particularly strong break- stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. A player with low
out candidates—are marked Blue. Risk is not only based on DVOA and a high Success Rate generally gets the yards need-
age and injury probability, but how a player’s projection com- ed, but rarely gets more. The league-average Success Rate in
pares to his recent performance as well as our confidence (or 2021 was 50%. Success Rate is not adjusted for the defenses
lack thereof) in his offensive teammates. a player faced.
Next we give the last three years of player stats. First come We also give a total of broken tackles (BTkl) according to
games played and games started (G/GS). Games played is the charting from Sports Info Solutions. This total includes bro-
official NFL total and may include games in which a player ken tackles on both runs and receptions. Please note that SIS
appeared on special teams but did not carry the ball or catch marked broken tackles roughly 10% more often in 2019 than
a pass. We also have a total of offensive Snaps for each sea- in either 2020 or 2021. Yards after contact (YafC) measures
son. The next four columns are familiar: Runs, rushing yards how many yards a runner gained after making contact with
(Yds), yards per rush (Yd/R) and rushing touchdowns (TD). any defensive player.
The entry for fumbles (FUM) includes all fumbles by this The shaded columns to the right of yards after contact give
running back, no matter whether they were recovered by the data for each running back as a pass receiver. Receptions
offense or defense. Holding onto the ball is an identifiable skill; (Rec) counts passes caught, while Passes (Pass) counts to-
fumbling it so that your own offense can recover it is not. (For tal passes thrown to this player, complete or incomplete. The
more on this issue, see the essay “Pregame Show” in the front next four columns list receiving yards (Yds), receiving touch-
of the book.) This entry combines fumbles on both carries and downs (TD), catch rate (C%), yards per catch (Yd/C), and
receptions. Fumbles on special teams are not included. average yards after the catch (YAC).
The next four columns give our advanced metrics for rush- Our research has shown that receivers bear some responsibil-
ing: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and ity for incomplete passes, even though only their catches are

Joe Mixon Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2017/2 (48) Born: 24-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CIN 16/15 661 278 1137 5 4.1 0 -0.9% 20 90 17 46% 30 71 2.8 45 35 287 3 78% 8.2 9.5 19.3% 13 86 12
2020 CIN 6/6 290 119 428 3 3.6 1 -11.6% 38 -16 37 46% 39 18 2.1 26 21 138 1 81% 6.6 8.1 -4.8% 30 13 34
2021 CIN 16/16 698 292 1205 13 4.1 2 -1.8% 32 87 24 51% 28 39 2.6 48 42 314 3 88% 7.5 7.6 -18.8% 48 -16 50
2022 CIN 272 1062 9 3.9 2 -4.2% 56 49 348 2 88% 7.1 13.0%

290
 RUNNING BACKS 291

tracked in official statistics. Catch rate represents receptions di- The italicized row of statistics for the 2022 season is our
vided by all intended passes for this running back. The average 2022 KUBIAK projection as explained further in the Statisti-
NFL running back caught 78% of passes in 2021. Unfortunate- cal Toolbox at the front of the book. Be aware that projections
ly, we don’t have room to post the best and worst running backs account for the possibility of injury so workload projections
in receiving plus/minus, but you’ll find the top 10 and bottom may seem low for the top players.
10 running backs in this metric listed in the statistical appendix. It is difficult to accurately project statistics for a 162-game
Finally we have receiving DVOA and DYAR, which are en- baseball season, but it is exponentially more difficult to ac-
tirely separate from rushing DVOA and DYAR. To qualify for curately project statistics for a 17-game football season.
ranking in receiving DVOA and DYAR, a running back must Consider the listed projections not as a prediction of exact
have 25 passes thrown to him in that season. There are 57 numbers, but the mean of a range of possible performances.
players ranked for 2021, 50 for 2020, and 49 players ranked What’s important is less the exact number of yards we proj-
for 2019. ect, and more which players are projected to improve or de-

Top 20 RB by Rushing Top 20 RB by Rushing

DYAR (Total Value), 2021 DVOA (Value per Rush), 2021
Rank Player Team DYAR Rank Player Team DVOA
1 Jonathan Taylor IND 510 1 D’Ernest Johnson CLE 27.7%
2 Leonard Fournette TB 201 2 Rashaad Penny SEA 27.2%
3 Austin Ekeler LAC 187 3 Jonathan Taylor IND 25.2%
4 Nick Chubb CLE 181 4 Tony Pollard DAL 17.8%
5 Damien Harris NE 176 5 Leonard Fournette TB 15.9%
6 Rashaad Penny SEA 174 6 James Robinson JAX 15.4%
7 James Robinson JAX 170 7 Miles Sanders PHI 14.3%
8 AJ Dillon GB 160 8 Chase Edmonds ARI 12.9%
9 Tony Pollard DAL 144 9 Austin Ekeler LAC 11.7%
10 D’Ernest Johnson CLE 142 10 Damien Harris NE 10.9%
11 Miles Sanders PHI 138 11 Nick Chubb CLE 10.7%
12 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 137 12 Darrell Henderson LAR 10.2%
13 Aaron Jones GB 131 13 Khalil Herbert CHI 9.9%
14 Darrell Henderson LAR 123 14 Aaron Jones GB 9.9%
15 Elijah Mitchell SF 123 15 AJ Dillon GB 9.8%
16 Devin Singletary BUF 113 16 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 8.7%
17 Chase Edmonds ARI 109 17 Ronald Jones TB 8.7%
18 Derrick Henry TEN 101 18 Latavius Murray BAL 7.2%
19 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 97 19 Elijah Mitchell SF 5.7%
20 Darrel Williams KC 93 20 Devin Singletary BUF 5.7%
Minimum 100 carries. Minimum 100 carries.

Top 10 RB by Receiving Top 10 RB by Receiving

DYAR (Total Value), 2021 DVOA (Value per Pass), 2021
Rank Player Team DYAR Rank Player Team DVOA
1 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 188 1 James Conner ARI 62.4%
2 Darrel Williams KC 179 2 Brandon Bolden NE 46.4%
3 James Conner ARI 166 3 Kyle Juszczyk SF 42.6%
4 Brandon Bolden NE 156 4 Darrel Williams KC 42.3%
5 Austin Ekeler LAC 137 5 Justin Jackson LAC 38.6%
6 Leonard Fournette TB 120 6 AJ Dillon GB 36.5%
7 Christian McCaffrey CAR 116 7 Christian McCaffrey CAR 33.8%
8 Kyle Juszczyk SF 114 8 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 31.8%
9 Ty Johnson NYJ 111 9 Nick Chubb CLE 25.4%
10 AJ Dillon GB 110 10 Kenyan Drake LV 25.3%
Minimum 25 passes. Minimum 25 passes.
292 RUNNING BACKS

cline. Actual performance will vary from our projection less than yardage numbers.
for veteran starters and more for rookies and third-stringers, Finally, in a section we call “Going Deep,” we briefly discuss
for whom we must base our projections on much smaller ca- lower-round rookies, free-agent veterans, and practice-squad
reer statistical samples. Touchdown numbers will vary more players who may play a role during the 2022 season or beyond.

Ameer Abdullah Height: 5-9 Weight: 203 College: Nebraska Draft: 2015/2 (54) Born: 13-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 MIN 16/0 137 23 115 0 5.0 0 0.5% -- 6 -- 26% -- 6 1.9 21 15 88 1 71% 5.9 5.3 -4.4% -- 12 --
2020 MIN 16/0 71 8 42 0 5.3 0 50.6% -- 21 -- 63% -- 1 1.4 9 8 58 2 89% 7.3 7.9 31.5% -- 25 --
2021 2TM 17/1 314 51 166 0 3.3 0 -17.7% -- -20 -- 43% -- 14 2.0 53 38 289 1 72% 7.6 7.7 1.8% 24 43 21
2022 LV 9 32 0 3.6 0 0.7% 4 4 25 0 100% 6.3 -9.7%

Fumbling and ball-security issues derailed Abdullah’s early career as a shifty third-down back, but he landed a cushy gig as
the RB3 and kickoff returner for the Vikings, a team that likes to keep veteran role players around until they are AARP-eligible.
The Vikings got around to releasing Abdullah last October, and he soon latched on with the Panthers, where he scooped up lots
of short receptions in blowout losses. Abdullah will compete with Kenyan Drake and Brandon Bolden for a committee role in a
scheme that features gobs of receiving opportunities out of the backfield. Drake is the best player and Bolden the Josh McDan-
iels favorite, meaning Abdullah may have run out of ways to cling to the bottom of a depth chart.

Salvon Ahmed Height: 5-11 Weight: 196 College: Washington Draft: 2020/FA Born: 30-Dec-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 MIA 6/4 205 75 319 3 4.3 0 -10.3% -- -6 -- 59% -- 9 1.7 14 11 61 0 79% 5.5 6.5 -27.1% -- -10 --
2021 MIA 12/0 170 54 149 0 2.8 0 -34.9% -- -62 -- 31% -- 7 1.7 19 12 117 0 63% 9.8 10.3 -8.6% -- 6 --
2022 MIA 3 10 0 3.3 0 0.0% 3 2 19 0 67% 9.5 -14.1%

Ahmed is part of a compelling NFL story. He and his teammate Myles Gaskin both played high school football in Seattle,
both played college football in the same backfield at Washington, both went undrafted, and both ended up on the Dolphins. It’s
remarkable, but it might not have the full storybook ending. Ahmed hasn’t had the same professional opportunities as his best
friend, and he hasn’t made a case for extra work in just over 150 touches in two seasons. He has dreadful -20.6% rushing DVOA
and -16.4% receiving DVOA for his career. And while he impressed the team’s beat reporters through much of last offseason
and demonstrated his receiving versatility with a wheel route and difficult 23-yard touchdown catch in the 2021 preseason,
Ahmed seems unlikely to parlay those modest successes into any kind of real role for a 2022 Dolphins team with a new head
coach and new stable of backs in front of him.

Cam Akers Height: 5-11 Weight: 212 College: Florida State Draft: 2020/2 (52) Born: 22-Jun-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 LAR 13/5 297 145 625 2 4.3 1 -13.7% 41 -33 41 48% 34 23 2.4 14 11 123 1 79% 11.2 8.3 37.0% -- 46 --
2021 LAR 1/0 13 5 3 0 0.6 0 -51.0% -- -8 -- 0% -- 0 1.2 3 3 10 0 100% 3.3 1.3 -50.9% -- -5 --
2022 LAR 238 969 8 4.1 4 -3.2% 31 24 172 1 77% 7.2 -14.9%

Our table here fails to show Akers’ numbers during L.A.’s playoff run: 67 carries, 172 yards, two lost fumbles, -42.8%
DVOA, -96 DYAR. That last number matches the -96 DYAR that Alvin Kamara had for New Orleans in the regular season,
which was worst in the league, and it took Kamara 13 games to get there, not four. This is the 64th time since 1950 that a player
had at least 60 carries in a single postseason, and Akers’ 2.6-yard average is the worst of that lot. The stats are ugly, and Sean
McVay’s stubborn insistence on having Matthew Stafford hand off instead of throw is confounding, but it is impressive that
Akers was even on the field. Last July, Akers underwent surgery for a torn Achilles, a procedure that typically sidelines athletes
for nine months to a year. On Christmas Day, the Rams activated Akers, but some speculated it was done as a favor so he could
accumulate a pension credit. Two weeks later, he was playing in the regular-season finale against San Francisco.
Our table here also fails to show Akers’ numbers during L.A.’s 2020 playoff run: 46 carries, 221 yards, a 4.8-yard average,
two touchdowns, 33.5% DVOA, 80 DYAR. That was some of the best football of Akers’ young career, and shows what he
might be capable of given a healthy season as the top back in L.A.
 RUNNING BACKS 293

Tyler Allgeier Height: 5-11 Weight: 220 College: Brigham Young Draft: 2022/5 (151) Born: 15-Apr-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 ATL 89 355 3 4.0 1 -3.0% 10 8 59 0 80% 7.4 -9.7%

Allgeier may be a Day 3 steal for Atlanta. BackCAST gave him the third-highest projection in the class, ahead of guys such
as James Cook and Ty Davis-Price who went a day before him. Allgeier’s lack of explosiveness is a concern, but he’s a smooth
runner who can absorb hits and keep on going. He was the most productive back in the class on a per-carry basis, averaging 6.3
yards per carry, and his 36 rushing touchdowns over the last two years show how dangerous he can be in the red zone. He can’t
block and doesn’t have great hands, so he’s not a three-down back, but there’s room for a bruiser behind Cordarrelle Patterson
in the Atlanta backfield.

Peyton Barber Height: 5-11 Weight: 225 College: Auburn Draft: 2016/FA Born: 27-Jun-1994 Age: 28 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 TB 16/7 347 154 470 6 3.1 1 -29.8% 45 -140 45 40% 43 17 2.0 24 16 115 1 67% 7.2 7.4 0.3% -- 17 --
2020 WAS 16/2 194 94 258 4 2.7 0 -9.2% -- -3 -- 44% -- 5 1.4 7 4 12 0 57% 3.0 2.8 -62.3% -- -20 --
2021 LV 10/1 116 55 212 2 3.9 2 -26.7% -- -42 -- 49% -- 9 3.1 13 10 67 0 77% 6.7 7.3 -18.3% -- -3 --

Barber went 23-111-1 for the Raiders in Week 3 when Josh Jacobs was injured. He suffered turf toe a few weeks later and
then vanished from game plans once Jon Gruden was gone, often appearing on the inactive list as a healthy scratch. Brandon
Bolden arrives from New England with Josh McDaniels to replace Barber as the replacement-level RB3 binkie, and Barber
was unsigned at press time. As a 28-year-old running back with a career 3.5 yards-per-carry average, Barber has likely reached
the end of the line.

Saquon Barkley Height: 5-11 Weight: 233 College: Penn State Draft: 2018/1 (2) Born: 9-Feb-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NYG 13/13 737 217 1003 6 4.6 1 0.4% 19 84 18 44% 38 55 3.1 73 52 438 2 71% 8.4 8.4 -22.8% 45 -37 46
2020 NYG 2/2 67 19 34 0 1.8 0 -51.7% -- -32 -- 26% -- 5 1.5 9 6 60 0 67% 10.0 9.2 17.2% -- 17 --
2021 NYG 13/13 513 162 593 2 3.7 2 -17.5% 45 -56 45 43% 48 26 2.1 57 41 263 2 72% 6.4 7.3 -17.6% 46 -12 47
2022 NYG 190 745 5 3.9 2 -7.1% 59 45 330 2 76% 7.3 -10.4%

What a fall for Barkley. The usual Giants-related caveats apply—freak injuries, poor offensive line play, unimaginative play
calling—but there’s no denying that Barkley fell far short of even modest expectations last season. No matter the down and
almost no matter the spot on the field, backup Devontae Booker outplayed Barkley. The only zone where Barkley was better
was deep in Giants territory, behind the 20-yard line. There, Barkley gained 133 yards on 22 carries for a 31.5% DVOA; Booker
gained 43 yards on 20 carries for a -78.6% DVOA.
Still, from a fantasy perspective, there’s a lot to like about Barkley in 2021. He’s not rehabbing a surgically repaired knee
anymore. He has a new head coach and playcaller. He’ll be running behind a rebuilt offensive line. Expect a heavy workload,
in the run game and pass game, mainly because the Giants don’t have anyone else. They signed Matt Breida, but he couldn’t
overtake Zack Moss on the Bills depth chart last season. Plus, this is a contract year for Barkley. Head coach Brian Daboll can
feed him the ball with impunity. He doesn’t have to worry about preserving him for the future. And after three straight injury-
marred seasons, Barkley will be eager to prove his health and his worth.

Le'Veon Bell Height: 6-1 Weight: 225 College: Michigan State Draft: 2013/2 (48) Born: 18-Feb-1992 Age: 30 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NYJ 15/15 798 245 789 3 3.2 1 -16.6% 44 -76 44 42% 40 55 2.3 78 66 461 1 85% 7.0 6.7 -13.2% 39 3 39
2020 2TM 11/4 270 82 328 2 4.0 1 0.6% -- 34 -- 54% -- 21 2.5 20 16 138 0 80% 8.6 8.5 -2.1% -- 14 --
2021 2TM 8/0 170 39 101 2 2.6 0 -18.2% -- -17 -- 49% -- 3 1.5 7 5 30 1 71% 6.0 5.2 14.9% -- 11 --

Bell became a desperation back last year, suiting up for both the Ravens and Buccaneers when injuries decimated their re-
spective running back corps. Bell doesn’t have much left in the tank at this point, playing almost exactly at replacement level
294 RUNNING BACKS

at both stops. Formerly one of the most explosive players in the league, Bell hasn’t even managed a 20-yard run since 2017. At
this point, he’s only getting on rosters because of his experience and connections. It would be a mild surprise to ever see him
in the NFL again.

Eno Benjamin Height: 5-9 Weight: 207 College: Arizona State Draft: 2020/7 (222) Born: 13-Apr-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 ARI 9/0 95 34 118 1 3.5 0 -6.3% -- 3 -- 44% -- 8 2.6 7 6 42 0 86% 7.0 7.7 17.7% -- 14 --
2022 ARI 13 48 0 3.7 0 -0.3% 4 3 22 0 75% 7.3 -9.3%

Benjamin saw the first game action of his career in 2021 after originally being drafted in the seventh round in 2020. When
Chase Edmonds was available, Benjamin was typically a healthy scratch, but when Edmonds had to miss time due to injury,
Benjamin filled in as more of a true backup to James Conner. With Edmonds off to Miami, Benjamin will have a chance to
compete for more time behind the historically injury-prone Conner, but it is worth noting that Arizona’s backfield became more
crowded with the signing of veteran Darrel Williams and the selection of Keaontay Ingram in the sixth round of this year’s
draft. Benjamin should not be expected to be a major contributor this season given the competition around him, but he did show
some flashes of usefulness in the passing game a year ago and also received some effusive, unprompted praise from head coach
Kliff Kingsbury during OTAs.

Giovani Bernard Height: 5-9 Weight: 205 College: North Carolina Draft: 2013/2 (37) Born: 22-Nov-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CIN 16/2 457 53 170 0 3.2 2 -33.5% -- -52 -- 32% -- 11 2.0 43 30 234 0 70% 7.8 7.3 -38.5% 48 -55 49
2020 CIN 16/10 517 124 416 3 3.4 1 -13.9% 42 -29 40 48% 35 19 2.0 59 47 355 3 80% 7.6 7.4 -1.7% 28 40 22
2021 TB 12/0 146 8 58 0 7.3 1 56.0% -- 20 -- 63% -- 3 3.0 29 23 123 3 79% 5.3 5.8 -16.5% 45 -4 44
2022 TB 44 171 1 3.9 1 -2.3% 30 24 162 1 80% 6.8 -8.0%

Remember when Bernard was supposed to come in and become the pass-catching back the Buccaneers were missing? That
lasted about a month before Leonard Fournette made Bernard’s presence unnecessary; he was a healthy scratch in Tampa Bay’s
last four games. He’s still a useful player—he came alive in the wild-card round with 83 yards from scrimmage and a touch-
down—but his relevance was greatly exaggerated by preseason hype last year. Bernard will battle third-round pick Rachaad
White for the role of touted fantasy sleeper whom the Bucs get bored with sometime in October.

Brandon Bolden Height: 5-11 Weight: 220 College: Mississippi Draft: 2012/FA Born: 26-Jan-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NE 15/2 96 15 68 3 4.5 0 39.5% -- 34 -- 53% -- 6 1.7 11 9 111 1 82% 12.3 6.6 69.5% -- 52 --
2021 NE 17/1 342 44 226 1 5.1 1 -4.1% -- 8 -- 41% -- 24 2.8 49 41 405 2 84% 9.9 10.1 46.4% 2 156 4
2022 LV 20 90 1 4.5 0 8.1% 13 10 80 0 77% 8.0 -17.6%

Bolden recorded four first-down receptions on third-and-10 or more yards last season, all of them on passes behind the line
of scrimmage. He recorded 10 total third-down conversion receptions for the Patriots, more than Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Ag-
holor, or James White. Bolden’s expected role with the Raiders is to captain the special teams and help Josh McDaniels instill
The Patriots Way. But incumbent third-down back Kenyan Drake cannot afford to be caught off guard by Bolden’s ability to
turn screen passes into first downs the way so many opponents were last year.

Devontae Booker Height: 5-11 Weight: 219 College: Utah Draft: 2016/4 (136) Born: 27-May-1992 Age: 30 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DEN 16/0 26 2 9 0 4.5 0 -13.8% -- 0 -- 0% -- 3 6.0 9 6 57 0 67% 9.5 7.3 -33.6% -- -9 --
2020 LV 16/1 238 93 423 3 4.5 1 -1.8% -- 26 -- 46% -- 14 2.4 21 17 84 0 81% 4.9 4.8 -37.5% -- -26 --
2021 NYG 16/4 519 145 593 2 4.1 0 -5.0% 36 22 37 45% 41 17 2.0 45 40 268 1 89% 6.7 7.4 19.0% 13 79 15
 RUNNING BACKS 295

The Giants signed Booker last season to be Saquon Barkley’s backup. Instead, Booker turned out to be the more effective
back as Barkley battled an ankle injury. Both rushed for 593 yards, but Booker did so on fewer carries and posted a better
DVOA. Their receiving production was nearly identical—Barkley caught 41 passes for 263 yards, Booker caught 40 for
268—but again Booker posted a better DVOA. Basically, Barkley ($4.8 million) was a more expensive version of Booker
($3.6 million). Despite his solid performance in 2021, Booker was one of new general manager Joe Schoen’s first cap-clearing/
Gettleman-cleansing cuts and remained unsigned at the time of publication.

Matt Breida Height: 5-10 Weight: 190 College: Georgia Southern Draft: 2017/FA Born: 28-Feb-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SF 13/5 259 123 623 1 5.1 2 -1.8% 22 33 25 46% 31 16 2.3 22 19 120 1 86% 6.3 6.7 19.5% -- 39 --
2020 MIA 12/1 152 59 254 0 4.3 2 -11.8% -- -8 -- 56% -- 4 1.9 10 9 96 0 90% 10.7 10.7 49.9% -- 42 --
2021 BUF 9/0 81 26 125 1 4.8 1 5.0% -- 15 -- 65% -- 1 1.6 9 7 72 2 78% 10.3 8.7 52.8% -- 35 --
2022 NYG 86 367 2 4.3 1 -1.6% 24 18 143 1 75% 7.9 -11.8%

A logical signing by the Giants, given Breida’s shared Buffalo ties with head coach Brian Daboll. At the same time, an odd
signing, given how sparingly the Bills used Breida last season. Injuries weren’t a factor; Brieda was a healthy scratch in eight
regular-season games and both playoff contests. When he was active, Breida barely saw the field. He rushed nine times in a
Week 12 blowout of the Saints but just five times the rest of the way. He had one third-down carry all season. You would figure
that Daboll had some say in that.

Rex Burkhead Height: 5-10 Weight: 215 College: Nebraska Draft: 2013/6 (190) Born: 2-Jul-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NE 13/1 264 65 302 3 4.6 1 22.2% -- 85 -- 52% -- 14 3.1 38 27 279 0 71% 10.3 8.5 4.0% 21 37 23
2020 NE 10/0 269 67 274 3 4.1 0 12.9% -- 60 -- 55% -- 10 1.9 33 25 192 3 76% 7.7 8.0 8.4% 18 42 21
2021 HOU 16/5 378 122 427 3 3.5 1 -9.3% 42 -4 42 46% 39 15 2.3 32 25 186 0 78% 7.4 5.6 -0.1% 27 24 30
2022 HOU 87 312 3 3.6 1 -8.5% 27 22 161 1 81% 7.3 -9.5%

At age 31, Burkhead received over 100 carries for the first time in his career. His previous career-high in carries was 74 back
in 2016. Burkhead wasn’t suddenly some workhorse in Houston, but he did see the most rushing attempts on the team. The
increased workload behind a poor run-blocking offensive line did not help carry over Burkhead’s prior efficiency. His DVOA
on first downs was -40.1%, second worst behind New Orleans’ Tony Jones (-41.8%) among running backs with at least 20 first-
down carries. Still, he found success in his typical role as a late-down pass-catcher, second on the team behind Brandin Cooks
with 21.1% receiving DVOA on third and fourth down, though that came on just 13 passes.

Chris Carson Height: 5-11 Weight: 222 College: Oklahoma State Draft: 2017/7 (249) Born: 16-Sep-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SEA 15/15 736 278 1230 7 4.4 7 1.9% 16 130 10 57% 3 78 3.3 47 37 266 2 79% 7.2 8.6 8.9% 18 57 18
2020 SEA 12/12 403 141 681 5 4.8 1 15.1% 12 153 11 65% 1 25 2.8 46 37 287 4 80% 7.8 6.9 23.5% 6 108 8
2021 SEA 4/4 124 54 232 3 4.3 1 14.2% -- 53 -- 56% -- 8 2.7 6 6 29 0 100% 4.8 7.0 -31.0% -- -6 --
2022 SEA 14 62 0 4.4 0 8.0% 4 3 20 0 75% 6.7 -11.6%

Carson played only four games in 2021 before suffering a neck injury that put his career in serious jeopardy, though that
wasn’t clear at the time. He was questionable the next week against the Rams, then placed on injured reserve. For two weeks
in November he was eligible to return but still not practicing, then finally underwent vertebrae-fusion surgery later that month.
That ended his season but failed to answer any questions about what happens next. In January, Pete Carroll said that Carson
would be ready for training camp; in June, Carson was still not cleared for minicamp and told reporters there was no timeline
for his return. The Seahawks’ actions—re-signing Rashaad Penny in March, drafting Kenneth Walker in April—have certainly
showed little faith in Carson’s chances. If this is it, it would be the end of a short, brilliant career. Carson’s average of 71.5 rush-
ing yards per game is fifth in franchise history, behind Shaun Alexander, Marshawn Lynch, Ricky Watters, and Curt Warner.
296 RUNNING BACKS

Michael Carter Height: 5-8 Weight: 201 College: North Carolina Draft: 2021/4 (107) Born: 7-May-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 NYJ 14/11 449 147 639 4 4.3 1 5.6% 21 88 22 51% 25 45 3.0 56 36 325 0 66% 9.0 9.3 -11.6% 38 7 38
2022 NYJ 110 463 4 4.2 1 -0.2% 43 29 218 1 67% 7.5 -30.2%

Carter’s rookie season was about as good as you could have asked for from a fourth-round pick. The Jets trusted Carter to
lead all players in touches—a team-leading 147 carries and a fifth-best 56 targets in the passing game. Despite the first-year
success, that kind of role isn’t sustainable for Carter. His 5-foot-8 frame is not suitable as an every-down back. He wasn’t even
able to keep that pace up during the season, missing three weeks with an ankle sprain and sustaining a concussion in Week 17.
That being said, the Jets might have thrown Carter a bone by drafting Breece Hall. With Hall slated to be the lead back, Carter
can comfortably slot in as a complementary running back with an emphasis on his pass-catching role.

Nick Chubb Height: 5-11 Weight: 225 College: Georgia Draft: 2018/2 (35) Born: 27-Dec-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CLE 16/16 728 298 1494 8 5.0 3 4.5% 12 162 9 45% 37 74 3.5 49 36 278 0 73% 7.7 8.8 -15.3% 41 -4 41
2020 CLE 12/12 410 190 1067 12 5.6 1 25.5% 2 276 3 52% 20 56 3.7 18 16 150 0 89% 9.4 8.3 52.7% -- 63 --
2021 CLE 14/14 482 228 1259 8 5.5 2 10.8% 11 182 4 51% 27 41 3.2 25 20 174 1 80% 8.7 9.2 25.4% 9 59 18
2022 CLE 197 1021 6 5.2 2 13.3% 34 27 191 1 79% 7.1 -5.3%

A Next Gen Stats tweet noted that since 2018, Chubb is the only back in the NFL to average over 2.0 yards per carry more
than expected on runs against loaded boxes in a single season. He has done it in three of his four seasons. The Browns have
won more during Chubb’s tenure, but there’s an interesting comparison to be drawn between Chubb and Joe Thomas as far as
understated and overlooked dominance. Chubb is getting into long-in-the-tooth running back years and will finally have a real
cap hit in 2023. The Browns will happily pay it if he keeps producing like he has to date. He doesn’t catch passes because the
Browns have other backs for that, but he’s arguably the NFL’s best running back not named Jonathan Taylor.

Tevin Coleman Height: 6-1 Weight: 210 College: Indiana Draft: 2015/3 (73) Born: 16-Apr-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SF 14/11 392 137 544 6 4.0 0 -15.3% 43 -38 41 39% 44 19 2.1 30 21 180 1 70% 8.6 9.7 0.0% 24 23 30
2020 SF 8/1 63 28 53 0 1.9 0 -47.0% -- -43 -- 32% -- 5 1.9 5 4 34 0 80% 8.5 5.3 13.2% -- 8 --
2021 NYJ 11/5 180 84 356 0 4.2 0 1.3% -- 36 -- 54% -- 14 2.8 16 11 49 0 69% 4.5 8.0 -30.4% -- -14 --
2022 NYJ 7 29 0 4.1 0 11.1% 4 2 17 0 50% 8.5 -20.4%

Things don’t always go according to plan. When the Jets brought in Mike LaFleur to install a Shanahan offense, it only made
sense to bring in a pass-catching back such as Coleman who spent the last two years thriving in the system. The expectation is
easy: work primarily as a passing back with some additional work running sweeps and outside zone. The reality: Coleman’s
-30.4% receiving DVOA and -14 receiving DYAR both stand as the second-worst marks of his career. The bulk of Coleman’s
work came as a rusher, and an inside rusher at that. All told, 50 of his 84 rushing attempts came either up the middle or off the
guard. With the current state of the Jets running back room, Coleman may be the odd one out once the season starts.

Alex Collins Height: 5-10 Weight: 217 College: Arkansas Draft: 2016/5 (171) Born: 26-Aug-1994 Age: 28 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 SEA 3/1 52 18 77 2 4.3 0 56.5% -- 49 -- 61% -- 2 2.7 2 1 4 0 50% 4.0 1.0 -34.5% -- -2 --
2021 SEA 11/6 257 108 411 2 3.8 1 3.9% 24 57 29 51% 26 20 2.1 10 9 87 0 90% 9.7 10.7 -2.9% -- 6 --

In Seattle’s fair city, where it rains without pity

Old Collins was rushing and trying to score
He liked Irish dancing, and his runs were quite fancy
Gaining first downs and touchdowns, alive, alive, oh
Quick steps and hip flexion, gave him change of direction
 RUNNING BACKS 297

Turning hits in the backfield into gains of four

But he wasn’t explosive, on his regular doses
Of first downs and touchdowns, alive, alive, oh
Oft-injured and aging, he’s now a free agent
And the Seahawks have no need for Collins no more
Now he’s hopin’ and wishin’, for a backup position
To gain first downs and touchdowns, alive, alive, oh

James Conner Height: 6-1 Weight: 233 College: Pittsburgh Draft: 2017/3 (105) Born: 5-May-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 PIT 10/10 334 116 464 4 4.0 1 -11.3% 38 -13 37 45% 35 33 2.3 38 34 251 3 89% 7.4 8.8 21.2% 10 75 14
2020 PIT 13/11 561 169 721 6 4.3 2 -7.5% 34 8 34 49% 29 39 2.4 43 35 215 0 81% 6.1 6.7 -23.5% 43 -23 43
2021 ARI 15/6 598 202 752 15 3.7 2 0.5% 28 88 23 52% 22 52 2.5 40 37 375 3 95% 10.1 10.2 62.4% 1 166 3
2022 ARI 214 791 8 3.7 2 -6.2% 35 29 237 1 83% 8.2 6.7%

Conner struggled through an injury-plagued season in his contract year of 2020, which forced him to sign a small one-year
deal with the Cardinals to share snaps with the incumbent Chase Edmonds in 2021. At the start of the year, the expectation was
that Conner would feature more heavily in short yardage and around the goal line, but a midseason injury to Edmonds opened
the door for Conner to take on more of a workhorse role. He was a fantasy football stalwart in 2021, and Arizona rewarded his
goal-line success (he rushed for 15 touchdowns over the course of the season against an expected total of 11.1 rushing touch-
downs, the second-largest rushing touchdown surplus among running backs) with a three-year deal in free agency for up to
$21 million. While he did add a useful dimension to Arizona’s offense in those short-yardage situations, it remains to be seen
whether Conner can hold up over the course of a full season with a starter’s workload given the nature of the running back posi-
tion and his own personal injury history. He has missed at least two games in each of his five NFL seasons, so there is a decent
chance that last season was the healthiest he will be during his time in Arizona. Also, remember that running back success at
the goal line strongly regresses to the mean.

Dalvin Cook Height: 5-10 Weight: 210 College: Florida State Draft: 2017/2 (41) Born: 10-Aug-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 MIN 14/14 615 250 1135 13 4.5 4 9.3% 10 183 8 49% 23 68 2.7 63 53 519 0 84% 9.8 11.2 29.2% 5 144 4
2020 MIN 14/14 669 312 1557 16 5.0 5 15.6% 8 335 2 56% 10 71 2.8 54 44 361 1 81% 8.2 10.0 5.9% 21 58 16
2021 MIN 13/13 608 249 1159 6 4.7 3 -7.6% 40 11 39 47% 37 38 2.2 49 34 224 0 69% 6.6 8.2 -15.4% 43 -4 42
2022 MIN 314 1424 12 4.5 4 5.1% 50 37 270 1 74% 7.3 -17.2%

Cook had a “down” year in 2021, but it’s easy to explain that as an offensive line issue, not a Cook issue. The Vikings were
dead last in stuff rate at 23%, meaning roughly a quarter of the team’s runs last year had no chance for the running back to do
anything. However, the Vikings finished seventh in second-level yards and fourth in open-field yards because Cook was still an
explosive-play machine. Cook ripped off 19 runs of at least 15 yards, a figure bested only by Jonathan Taylor. For reference,
Cook’s running mate in Minnesota, Alexander Mattison, only had four such runs.
One interesting note is that Cook has been very effective from shotgun the past two years, which obviously runs counter to
Minnesota’s under-center offense. Cook earned a 27.6% DVOA on 51 shotgun runs in 2020 and 13.0% DVOA on 46 shotgun
runs in 2021, both figures finishing higher than his overall DVOA rating on the year.
On the flip side, Cook had a down year as a pass-catcher. Minnesota’s screen usage and DVOA rating were nearly identical
between 2020 and 2021, and Cook hardly ever lines up as a receier, meaning his drop in receiving production was purely a
matter of not getting enough out of checkdown situations.

James Cook Height: 5-11 Weight: 190 College: Georgia Draft: 2022/2 (63) Born: 25-Sep-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 BUF 88 376 3 4.3 1 1.4% 34 27 194 1 79% 7.2 -6.1%
298 RUNNING BACKS

Cook has exceptional bloodlines from his older brother Dalvin, but don’t expect the rookie Cook to mirror his brother’s
bell-cow NFL workload. James is relatively undersized for his position at just 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds but that should work
just fine for the younger Cook’s skill set. He caught a pass for 22.6% of his college touches, a similar ratio (25.6%) to Nyheim
Hines, a back with a similar build (5-foot-9 and 196 pounds) who has excelled as a third-down back in the NFL. And Cook was
one of just seven Division I backs to average at least 2.0 yards per route run in 2021. It should also work just fine for the Bills,
who tipped their hands regarding their desire for a receiving back in the attempted signing of J.D. McKissic and actual signing
of Duke Johnson.

DeeJay Dallas Height: 5-10 Weight: 215 College: Miami Draft: 2020/4 (144) Born: 16-Sep-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 SEA 12/2 146 34 108 2 3.2 0 -1.8% -- 11 -- 53% -- 11 2.5 20 17 111 1 85% 6.5 6.5 13.7% -- 31 --
2021 SEA 17/0 161 33 138 2 4.2 1 13.9% -- 36 -- 58% -- 7 2.7 23 21 133 0 91% 6.3 5.2 -17.8% -- -5 --
2022 SEA 10 37 0 3.7 0 6.8% 5 4 24 0 80% 6.0 -13.1%

The majority of Dallas’ NFL snaps have come on special teams; he was Seattle’s primary kickoff returner in 2021. Though he
played in every game last season, he never started, always coming off the bench in place of Chris Carson, Alex Collins, Rashaad
Penny, or Adrian Peterson (yes, THAT Adrian Peterson). His best game as a runner was an eight-carry, 41-yard, one-touchdown
effort in a 20-10 loss to the Rams. He saw more action as a receiver, relatively speaking, and almost qualified for our receiving
tables, but his DVOA was surprisingly poor considering he played some wideout in college. With Collins unsigned and Carson
potentially retiring, Dallas is suddenly the third back in Seattle behind Penny and Kenneth Walker. Perhaps a larger workload
will give him more of a chance to show off that kick returner speed—his longest NFL run so far was a 15-yard gain against
Arizona in Week 11.

Tyrion Davis-Price Height: 6-1 Weight: 232 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2022/3 (93) Born: 23-Oct-2000 Age: 22 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 SF 62 256 2 4.1 1 -0.4% 12 15 88 0 80% 7.3 -17.8%

After drafting both Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell a year ago, the 49ers went back to the running back well in the third
round again when they selected Davis-Price. Davis-Price profiles best as a short-yardage grinder and should be physical enough
to hold up in pass protection as he enters the league, but the San Francisco running back room is quite crowded, meaning he
may not see a ton of work early on. He did not produce much as a receiving threat in college, so that could be a hindrance for
him as he tries to compete for touches. Davis-Price’s selection by the 49ers could have been motivated by the rash of injuries
the team sustained at the running back position in 2021, but with Mitchell emerging as a viable starter a year ago and the com-
bination of Sermon and Jeff Wilson still around, it is fair to question whether this was a smart use of resources for the 49ers.

Mike Davis Height: 5-9 Weight: 221 College: South Carolina Draft: 2015/4 (126) Born: 19-Feb-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 2TM 12/1 80 13 27 0 2.1 0 -67.8% -- -34 -- 15% -- 0 1.2 8 7 22 0 88% 3.1 3.9 -33.4% -- -9 --
2020 CAR 15/12 581 165 642 6 3.9 1 -3.5% 31 37 31 50% 27 56 2.7 70 59 373 2 84% 6.3 7.2 0.2% 26 55 17
2021 ATL 17/8 594 138 503 3 3.6 4 -7.5% 39 6 40 43% 46 36 2.0 58 44 259 1 76% 5.9 7.0 -34.9% 55 -72 56
2022 BAL 8 28 0 3.5 0 5.5% 4 3 22 0 75% 7.3 -11.7%

Davis flashed potential in 2020 as a fill-in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, and as the presumptive main guy in Atlanta
for Arthur Smith, he seemed like a breakout waiting to happen. Well, we’re still waiting. While obviously not helped by the
Falcons’ general talent deficiencies, Davis struggled to get out of first gear throughout 2021, losing more and more snaps to
Cordarrelle Patterson as the year went along. He had a first down or touchdown on just 15.2% of his carries, the second-lowest
rate for any qualified running back. That being said, Davis still averaged 2.0 yards after contact and had an 8.0% broken/missed
tackle rate, and he is probably better player than he looked like behind Atlanta’s porous line. The Ravens picked him up this
offseason so he can go back to being a useful depth player rather than a fantasy sleeper.
 RUNNING BACKS 299

AJ Dillon Height: 6-0 Weight: 250 College: Boston College Draft: 2020/2 (62) Born: 2-May-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 GB 11/0 97 46 242 2 5.3 0 21.6% -- 56 -- 54% -- 13 3.5 2 2 21 0 100% 10.5 8.0 153.7% -- 15 --
2021 GB 17/2 476 187 803 5 4.3 2 9.7% 15 159 8 63% 1 34 2.8 37 34 313 2 92% 9.2 9.1 36.5% 6 110 9
2022 GB 190 786 6 4.1 2 -0.6% 36 30 248 2 83% 8.3 12.8%

Dillon made the leap from being a good rotational runner to a serious threat in Green Bay’s two-pronged backfield. A monster
truck of a running back, Dillon was exceptional at keeping the Packers ahead of the sticks last year, as evidenced by his league-
leading success rate. The Packers do well to leverage Dillon’s size and strength where it matters, namely short yardage and in
the red zone. Dillon converted 14 of 19 third-/fourth-down runs into a fresh set of downs and out-touched Aaron Jones 41-33
in the red zone while also carrying a higher DVOA and success rate in that area.
The quiet part of Dillon’s game, however, is his pass-catching. Aaron Jones always gets billed as the pass-catching special-
ist, but Dillon is solid in his own right. Dillon only contributed on first and second downs, leaving third down to Jones, but he
posted the sixth-best receiving DVOA in the league among running backs, serving as an excellent checkdown option with his
burst, balance, and soft hands.

J.K. Dobbins Height: 5-9 Weight: 209 College: Ohio State Draft: 2020/2 (55) Born: 17-Dec-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 BAL 15/1 456 134 805 9 6.0 2 26.1% 1 196 6 59% 4 32 2.9 24 18 120 0 75% 6.7 7.2 -20.0% -- -9 --
2022 BAL 207 1048 6 5.1 2 11.7% 27 21 164 1 78% 7.8 -10.3%

Dobbins’ torn ACL in the preseason was the canary in the coal mine for Baltimore’s multiple injuries at running back; after
an extremely promising debut campaign, Dobbins appeared poised for a big 2021. One year later, Dobbins must not only come
back from the knee injury but run behind a line that scarcely resembles the one he made hay with in 2020. Dobbins certainly
showed he was ready for the NFL, scoring in seven straight games at the end of his rookie season (including the playoff game
against the Titans), and was missed last season as Baltimore’s team rushing DVOA fell from third to 11th in the league. His
return to rookie form will be a key factor in relieving the pressure on Lamar Jackson to do everything, and perhaps a key factor
in winning your fantasy league after years of frustration.

Kenyan Drake Height: 6-1 Weight: 211 College: Alabama Draft: 2016/3 (73) Born: 26-Jan-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 2TM 14/10 622 170 817 8 4.8 2 19.7% 3 202 5 51% 16 34 2.3 68 50 345 0 74% 6.9 8.5 -7.9% 33 23 29
2020 ARI 15/13 615 239 955 10 4.0 3 -3.4% 29 57 28 50% 26 24 2.0 31 25 137 0 81% 5.5 6.6 -8.1% 34 10 36
2021 LV 12/2 280 63 254 2 4.0 0 -0.1% -- 23 -- 46% -- 13 2.0 40 30 291 1 75% 9.7 8.6 25.3% 10 86 14
2022 LV 75 295 3 3.9 1 -1.9% 27 22 169 1 81% 7.7 -4.0%

Ted Nguyen of The Athletic speculated in February that Drake could benefit from Josh McDaniels’ arrival: the Raiders didn’t
get much mileage out of running backs in the passing game under Jon Gruden & Associates, while McDaniels built whole Mac
Jones game plans and Super Bowl comebacks out of short swing passes and screens to players such as Brandon Bolden and
James White. Drake missed the final five games of the 2021 season with a fractured ankle, but the Raiders restructured his con-
tract to keep him around in 2022. He has spent most of his career on the verge of a breakout year, but he’s still a rather ordinary
committee back after six seasons, and a new scheme will do little to change that—especially since McDaniels imported Bolden
from the Patriots as a potential third-down binkie and added Ameer Abdullah for extra insurance.

Chase Edmonds Height: 5-9 Weight: 210 College: Fordham Draft: 2018/4 (134) Born: 13-Apr-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 ARI 13/2 209 60 303 4 5.1 0 31.7% -- 84 -- 40% -- 10 2.6 21 12 105 1 57% 8.8 8.8 -15.3% -- -2 --
2020 ARI 16/2 526 97 448 1 4.6 2 1.8% -- 42 -- 49% -- 19 2.1 67 53 402 4 79% 7.6 6.2 24.0% 4 135 5
2021 ARI 12/11 475 116 592 2 5.1 1 12.9% 8 109 17 58% 10 23 2.1 53 43 311 0 81% 7.2 7.5 -6.0% 30 21 32
2022 MIA 158 727 4 4.6 1 4.8% 37 30 207 1 81% 6.9 -9.0%
300 RUNNING BACKS

Undersized at 5-foot-9 and 210 pounds, Edmonds spent his four seasons with the Cardinals in a specialized role as a receiv-
ing back. In fact, Edmonds caught passes for 31.1% of his touches the last two seasons, the fourth-highest ratio among running
backs with 200 or more touches. But Edmonds should have a chance to expand his role on the Dolphins in new head coach
Mike McDaniel’s presumed Shanahan-influenced outside zone running scheme. That’s because Edmonds is one of the fastest
ballcarriers in the league. He reached at least 15 mph on 23.3% of his carries last season, the highest rate among backs with
100 or more carries according to Next Gen Stats. And speed is the critical attribute for outside zone runners to stretch defenders
horizontally before they cut upfield.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Height: 5-7 Weight: 207 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2020/1 (32) Born: 11-Apr-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 KC 13/13 542 181 803 4 4.4 0 -6.9% 33 13 33 56% 9 41 2.2 54 36 297 1 67% 8.3 8.2 -13.2% 38 2 38
2021 KC 10/10 342 119 517 4 4.3 2 2.4% 25 53 30 59% 6 17 2.2 23 19 129 2 83% 6.8 8.9 23.7% -- 51 --
2022 KC 141 614 4 4.4 1 2.2% 49 36 296 2 73% 8.2 -7.6%

Edwards-Helaire fumbled late in the fourth quarter with the Chiefs in field goal range in Week 2, essentially handing the
Ravens an early-season victory. He later went on IR with a knee injury, returned for a series of eventful games, battled two dif-
ferent non-COVID illnesses, missed two late-season games with a collarbone injury, and lost his starting job in the playoffs to
Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon was re-signed and the Chiefs expect Ronald Jones to have a significant role, and CEH has both
been unreliable and almost inexcusably ordinary through two seasons. Based on what we saw at LSU, we were expecting an
Alvin Kamara-like highlight machine as a rusher/receiver when the Chiefs made CEH a first-round pick. What we have gotten
instead has been weak tea Ronald Jones.

Gus Edwards Height: 6-1 Weight: 235 College: Rutgers Draft: 2018/FA Born: 13-Apr-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 BAL 16/1 402 133 711 2 5.3 2 11.8% 8 126 11 56% 6 23 3.1 7 7 45 0 100% 6.4 6.4 24.7% -- 15 --
2020 BAL 16/6 347 144 723 6 5.0 1 17.4% 7 177 10 63% 2 26 3.0 13 9 129 0 69% 14.3 10.3 46.3% -- 35 --
2022 BAL 137 615 5 4.5 1 4.3% 12 9 75 0 75% 8.3 -20.7%

One of only six guys named “Gus” to play pro football since 1960, Edwards seemed poised to cruise past Gus Holloman, a
defensive back/punter with the AFL Broncos and Jets, into third place on the Gus Approximate Value chart. But then he tore his
ACL just before opening Sunday and missed the season. Edwards’ first three years as a backup back were virtually identical—
about 715 yards rushing at a little better than 5 yards per carry. If he regains anything like that form, he should dust Holloman
in 2022, leaving only Gus Frerotte and former Raiders linebacker Gus Otto ahead of him. Gus the Kicking Mule, of course, is
in a league of his own…

Austin Ekeler Height: 5-10 Weight: 200 College: Western State Draft: 2017/FA Born: 17-May-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 LAC 16/8 609 132 557 3 4.2 3 -10.0% 35 -8 35 45% 32 62 2.8 108 92 993 8 85% 10.8 10.2 38.8% 3 320 2
2020 LAC 10/10 411 116 530 1 4.6 1 -13.4% 40 -23 39 43% 45 39 2.7 65 54 403 2 83% 7.5 8.8 16.6% 14 111 7
2021 LAC 16/16 731 206 911 12 4.4 4 11.9% 9 189 3 56% 12 39 2.5 94 70 647 8 74% 9.2 9.0 12.6% 15 136 5
2022 LAC 219 923 8 4.2 3 0.7% 84 68 569 4 81% 8.4 11.2%

Ekeler led all running backs with 294 receiving yards on passes behind the line of scrimmage. His 32 receptions behind the
LOS tied for sixth in the NFL. But Ekeler has never had a 20-carry game in his five-year career. His career high of 19 carries
(for 84 yards) came in the 2020 season opener. He carried between 11 and 15 times in 10 games last season, often appearing
on the midweek injury report with ankle or hip ailments. Chargers general manager Tom Telesco said in a postseason interview
that Ekeler “can handle a heavy workload but he shouldn’t have to,” an indication that Telesco, Brandon Staley, and Joe Lom-
bardi have a clear comfort zone when it comes to Ekeler’s touches and targets.
Ekeler’s 25 carries inside the 10-yard line tied for fifth in the NFL. It’s worth monitoring whether rookie Isaiah Spiller soaks
up more of those scoring opportunities than Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley did. The good news for both the Chargers and
Ekeler’s fantasy beneficiaries is that there should be plenty of goal-line opportunities to go around.
 RUNNING BACKS 301

Ezekiel Elliott Height: 6-0 Weight: 228 College: Ohio State Draft: 2016/1 (4) Born: 22-Jul-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DAL 16/16 941 301 1357 12 4.5 3 16.5% 4 324 1 56% 4 54 2.6 71 54 420 2 76% 7.8 7.3 12.6% 16 99 10
2020 DAL 15/15 787 244 979 6 4.0 6 -0.9% 27 87 20 50% 25 42 2.4 71 52 338 2 73% 6.5 6.9 -5.2% 32 35 25
2021 DAL 17/17 810 237 1002 10 4.2 1 4.7% 23 138 11 53% 21 22 2.5 66 47 287 2 72% 6.1 6.3 -11.8% 39 8 37
2022 DAL 226 892 8 3.9 2 -2.9% 53 41 270 2 77% 6.6 -13.7%

If you stop the season in Week 4, when Ezekiel Elliott tears his PCL, he would have been 8 DYAR behind Austin Ekeler for
first in the NFL, and he did that with a 26.1% DVOA and despite losing one of those four games to a brutal Bucs run defense
that forced a throw-heavy game plan. Elliott gained positive rush yards over expected in each of the other three games, per NFL
Next Gen Stats. The season as a whole? Obviously ghastly. You see the line. But it was colored heavily by playing through
that torn PCL, and in hindsight it might have been better for everyone if he had just sat out—or at least given himself a few
weeks off to see if some of the explosion would come back. “I was just doing my job,” Elliott said after the Cowboys lost in
the playoffs. “I was going out there and doing what I needed to do for my team. I feel like everyone else in that locker room
would have done the same.” There comes a time where discretion can be the better part of valor, and when it generates a tidal
wave of Tony Pollard Rox!!! content, that might be the place. It became extremely cool to pretend that Elliott is a bad football
player last season. Don’t buy the narrative.

Travis Etienne Height: 5-10 Weight: 210 College: Clemson Draft: 2021/1 (25) Born: 26-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 JAX 123 524 4 4.3 1 0.0% 51 36 252 1 71% 7.0 -22.9%

Missing the 2021 season with a foot injury may have been a disguised blessing for Etienne: Urban Meyer might have ordered
him to take on a 30-touch workload in a hopeless offense and/or bitten off his pinkie. Etienne was back for OTAs, producing
both the obligatory rave reviews (“The speed’s very real,” per offensive coordinator Press Taylor) and highlight videos of him
planting and cutting in shorts. Our projections for Etienne are modest because he’s slated to split carries with James Robinson
in an offense rebuilt out of lots of non-factory aftermarket parts. But Robinson will miss the start of camp due to his Meyer-ex-
acerbated foot injury, and Taylor and Doug Pederson hope to create a multidimensional role for Etienne. Keep an ear on Jaguars
camp: if Etienne handles contact well and picks up the offense quickly; he could be destined for Austin Ekeler-like numbers.

D'Onta Foreman Height: 6-0 Weight: 233 College: Texas Draft: 2017/3 (89) Born: 24-Apr-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 TEN 6/0 29 22 95 0 4.3 0 20.4% -- 26 -- 41% -- 4 3.4 1 1 5 1 100% 5.0 3.0 186.5% -- 14 --
2021 TEN 9/3 230 133 566 3 4.3 2 0.5% 29 50 32 52% 24 20 2.4 11 9 123 0 82% 13.7 13.8 85.3% -- 63 --
2022 CAR 77 332 2 4.3 1 0.0% 16 12 103 0 75% 8.6 -14.8%

The Panthers needed someone on the roster to fill in for the inevitable Christian McCaffrey injury, and who better to turn
to than Foreman? Foreman stepped in after Derrick Henry went down and ended in the top 10 in rushing yards over the back
half of the season. Foreman isn’t the most explosive player in the league, but he’s tough to bring down once he gets going. His
11.3% broken tackle rate was fifth in the league, and he was very rarely brought down before at least getting back to the line of
scrimmage. He’s a better fit in Carolina than Tennessee, as his skill set better contrasts with McCaffrey and makes him a more
viable change-of-pace player than he was behind Henry.

Leonard Fournette Height: 6-0 Weight: 228 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2017/1 (4) Born: 18-Jan-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 JAX 15/15 918 265 1152 3 4.3 1 -8.6% 34 0 34 42% 39 56 2.9 101 76 522 0 76% 6.9 7.2 -17.0% 42 -17 42
2020 TB 13/3 383 97 367 6 3.8 0 2.1% -- 46 -- 49% -- 17 2.1 47 36 233 0 77% 6.5 6.5 -17.4% 39 -9 40
2021 TB 14/13 623 180 812 8 4.5 1 15.9% 5 201 2 57% 11 37 2.5 84 69 454 2 82% 6.6 6.5 9.1% 19 120 6
2022 TB 235 976 9 4.2 1 2.1% 75 60 396 2 80% 6.6 -5.8%
302 RUNNING BACKS

Playoff Lenny wasn’t just a mirage! Fournette followed up his solid 2020 postseason run with the best year of his career,
setting new career highs in rushing and receiving DYAR, rushing DVOA, success rate, yards per carry, and first-down percent-
age. Some of that is Tampa Bay’s offense being better than Jacksonville’s, and some of it is getting to spend the full offseason
working with the Bucs rather than coming in just before opening day. But it’s also a case of Fournette being a great fit for Tampa
Bay’s duo-based attack and not having to be the only guy the offense counts on like he was in Jacksonville. He earned every
penny of his new contract. Be a little wary for PPR fantasy purposes, however, as Fournette may not match his 84 receiving
targets from a year ago. In perfect world, Rachaad White eats into that for Tampa Bay.

Devonta Freeman Height: 5-8 Weight: 206 College: Florida State Draft: 2014/4 (103) Born: 15-Mar-1992 Age: 30 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 ATL 14/14 675 184 656 2 3.6 3 -11.1% 37 -19 39 41% 41 38 2.0 70 59 410 4 84% 6.9 5.8 -0.9% 25 51 19
2020 NYG 5/4 136 54 172 1 3.2 0 -6.6% -- 4 -- 43% -- 7 1.4 10 7 58 0 70% 8.3 10.0 -10.4% -- 2 --
2021 BAL 16/8 528 133 576 5 4.3 0 0.3% 30 51 31 59% 3 21 1.6 42 34 190 1 81% 5.6 5.4 0.6% 25 34 23

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Baltimore was one desperate housewife when they called Freeman, freshly
cut by three other teams between January and August. Freeman was once the highest-paid running back in the league back in
Atlanta, so there is a riches-to-rags parable in here somewhere. Credit where it is due—despite his advancing age and limita-
tions Freeman gave the Ravens nearly 800 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. Now that he is 30 and the Ravens running
backs are healed, Freeman is back on the street, but don’t be at all surprised if he lands on a team (or three) in 2022.

Royce Freeman Height: 6-0 Weight: 238 College: Oregon Draft: 2018/3 (71) Born: 24-Feb-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DEN 16/0 513 132 496 3 3.8 0 -11.0% 36 -12 36 41% 42 22 2.1 50 43 256 1 86% 6.0 6.0 -10.1% 36 10 36
2020 DEN 16/0 192 35 170 0 4.9 0 12.4% -- 30 -- 43% -- 5 2.5 13 12 81 0 92% 6.8 5.3 2.1% -- 11 --
2021 2TM 15/0 218 56 169 0 3.0 0 -26.6% -- -42 -- 45% -- 9 2.0 16 10 77 0 63% 7.7 7.5 -29.2% -- -14 --
2022 HOU 10 35 0 3.5 0 1.1% 3 2 14 0 67% 7.0 -11.0%

Freeman spent training camp in 2021 in Denver, but the Broncos cut him just before the season started. Carolina signed him,
but he only played eight games for the Panthers before they cut him too. The Texans, who had just traded Mark Ingram to the
Saints, signed him shortly thereafter. He was used a bit more as a pass-catcher in Houston, though most of that production came
in an empty 51-yard receiving day in a 33-13 Week 14 loss to Seattle. As a runner, Freeman had the worst first-down rushing
DVOA (-55.8%) among 85 backs with at least 20 first-down carries. Freeman is likely low on a crowded depth chart at running
back in Houston and doesn’t have a standout skill to make him indispensable.

Kenneth Gainwell Height: 5-11 Weight: 201 College: Memphis Draft: 2021/5 (150) Born: 14-Mar-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 PHI 16/1 298 68 291 5 4.3 1 4.6% -- 37 -- 54% -- 17 2.5 50 33 253 1 66% 7.7 6.8 -9.1% 35 13 34
2022 PHI 52 218 2 4.2 1 1.0% 33 24 184 1 73% 7.7 -13.9%

In the middle of the last decade, teams routinely drafted productive running backs in the later rounds. From 2012 through
2016, 12 running backs drafted in the fifth round or later gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage during their rookie seasons.
You remember Alfred Morris, Andre Ellington, and Jordan Howard, don’t you? Then from 2017 through 2020, a drought. Last
season, a resurgence. Three running backs did it: Gainwell for the Eagles, Elijah Mitchell for the 49ers, and Khalil Herbert for
the Bears. Despite sporadic playing time, Gainwell led all Eagles running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in touches on
third down. Nine of his 13 carries and four of his seven catches resulted in first downs. He promises more in Year 2, telling the
Philadelphia Inquirer, “I’m coming back, and I’m going to go off.”
 RUNNING BACKS 303

Myles Gaskin Height: 5-10 Weight: 205 College: Washington Draft: 2019/7 (234) Born: 15-Feb-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 MIA 7/0 125 36 133 1 3.7 0 -10.3% -- -3 -- 42% -- 8 3.0 12 7 51 0 58% 7.3 6.6 -32.9% -- -14 --
2020 MIA 10/7 453 142 584 3 4.1 2 -10.9% 36 -15 36 55% 12 31 2.4 47 41 388 2 87% 9.5 9.5 37.8% 1 137 4
2021 MIA 17/10 575 173 612 3 3.5 2 -17.9% 46 -66 47 44% 44 24 1.6 63 49 234 4 78% 4.8 5.1 -17.7% 47 -15 49
2022 MIA 9 33 0 3.7 0 5.7% 4 3 19 0 75% 6.3 -12.3%

One might be tempted to blame Gaskin’s bottom-five rushing DVOA on his bottom three run-blocking offensive line with
just 3.81 adjusted line yards. But Gaskin hardly excelled in the aspects of running he could control. His 1.6 yards after contact
per attempt were tied for the lowest among backs with 100 or more carries. And his 10.8% broken tackle rate on both carries
and catches was fourth lowest among backs with 200 or more touches. Gaskin even saw his previously stellar 9.5 average yards
after the catch cut in half to 5.1 yards last season, the lowest among backs with 20 or more targets. All told, Gaskin looked like
a replacement-level runner. And with Gaskin’s pedestrian footspeed (he ran a 4.58s 40 time at the 2019 combine) making him
a bad fit with for new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s outside zone running scheme, the Dolphins replaced him with an
entirely new backfield of Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel. Gaskin seems unlikely to find another featured
role in his career.

Antonio Gibson Height: 6-0 Weight: 228 College: Memphis Draft: 2020/3 (66) Born: 23-Jun-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 WAS 14/10 406 170 795 11 4.7 2 18.8% 6 193 8 52% 21 40 2.0 44 36 247 0 82% 6.9 8.4 -27.2% 44 -34 45
2021 WAS 16/14 604 258 1037 7 4.0 6 -6.7% 38 21 38 52% 23 39 2.1 52 42 294 3 81% 7.0 7.9 -3.7% 29 31 25
2022 WAS 226 907 8 4.0 4 -4.8% 47 34 247 1 72% 7.3 -22.7%

How do you lose the trust of your coach as a potential every-down back? Well, one thing you could do is spend nearly the
whole season battling shoulder, hip, turf toe, and shin ailments, as Gibson did. Another thing you could do is finish with a
-29.1% rushing DVOA in the red zone, the worst of any back with more than 45 carries in that area, while averaging 1.7 yards
per attempt. The red zone stats probably aren’t super sticky—Gibson ran for a 51.4% DVOA on 29 red zone attempts in 2020.
But it wasn’t hard to build a case that Gibson struggled last season. As with a more famous back in the NFC East, you can trace
some of this to playing hurt. Unlike that other NFC East back, Gibson is on a rookie contract and was drafted by a different
front office. He’s a dynamic back but it looks more and more likely he’s destined to be a committee guy.

Melvin Gordon Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Wisconsin Draft: 2015/1 (15) Born: 13-Apr-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 LAC 12/11 433 162 612 8 3.8 4 -7.5% 33 8 32 51% 15 37 2.1 55 42 296 1 76% 7.0 7.6 -7.3% 32 19 31
2020 DEN 15/10 627 215 986 9 4.6 4 -1.8% 28 59 27 44% 44 51 2.5 44 32 158 1 73% 4.9 5.1 -51.9% 47 -93 50
2021 DEN 16/16 514 203 918 8 4.5 3 -0.1% 31 74 28 55% 16 38 2.7 38 28 213 2 74% 7.6 6.6 0.4% 26 29 27
2022 DEN 146 629 5 4.3 2 1.6% 27 20 155 1 74% 7.8 -14.7%

Gordon and Javonte Williams split goal-line opportunities nearly down the middle in 2021: 21 carries for five touchdowns
inside the 10-yard line for Gordon, 22 carries for four touchdowns for Williams. Williams is the superior overall rusher, and
Nathaniel Hackett is unlikely to fall into the trap of preferring an “experienced” runner near the goal line, so that split should
tilt significantly in Williams’ favor in 2022. As for the rest of Gordon’s carries: he has carved out a Mark Ingram-like niche as a
RB1-B type whom coaches trust, teammates respect, and DVOA thinks is a solid notch above replacement level. Gordon may
be a fantasy headache for Williams stans, but at just over $2 million, he’s a useful role player for the Broncos to keep around.

Derrick Gore Height: 5-10 Weight: 212 College: Louisiana-Monroe Draft: 2019/FA Born: 13-Dec-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 KC 11/0 115 51 256 2 5.0 0 13.0% -- 47 -- 61% -- 7 3.2 9 8 105 0 89% 13.1 11.3 67.3% -- 43 --
2022 KC 19 81 1 4.3 0 8.0% 5 4 31 0 80% 7.8 -7.0%
304 RUNNING BACKS

Gore saw his first real action in 2021 after two seasons knocking around the Chargers, Washington, and Chiefs practice
squads. Most of his carries came when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was hurt, with 9 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown in a blow-
out victory of the Raiders and 12 carries for 43 yards in a 36-10 win over the Steelers. The Chiefs sadly may no longer require
the services of a “mop up the blowout” back, but if they do, Gore will be the top candidate for the position.

Breece Hall Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Iowa State Draft: 2022/2 (36) Born: 31-May-2001 Age: 21 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 NYJ 181 782 6 4.3 2 0.5% 41 30 215 1 73% 7.2 -22.1%

The final splash of an already-splashy Jets draft came when New York traded up two spots to take the first running back off
the board. Hall answers a lot of the Jets’ needs at running back on paper. He has the build of an every-down back, although
perhaps Iowa State sensed that too considering they gave Hall 800 touches in three years. One of Hall’s biggest strengths is
his playmaking ability, leading the Big 12 in touchdowns his last two seasons. He’s a threat to score from anywhere, too: Hall
finished his collegiate career with five rushing touchdowns of 75-plus yards. Hall’s magnum opus came in his final college
game: a 20-touch game with 281 total yards and four combined touchdowns. Hall comes out of college with the fourth-highest
BackCAST projection of all time, trailing Jonathan Taylor, Ricky Williams, and Saquon Barkley.

Damien Harris Height: 5-11 Weight: 216 College: Alabama Draft: 2019/3 (87) Born: 11-Feb-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NE 2/0 5 4 12 0 3.0 0 -74.0% -- -5 -- 0% -- 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- --
2020 NE 10/10 251 137 691 2 5.0 1 9.9% 17 102 17 53% 19 17 2.6 7 5 52 0 71% 10.4 11.0 36.5% -- 20 --
2021 NE 15/15 407 202 929 15 4.6 2 10.8% 10 175 5 54% 19 31 2.5 21 18 132 0 86% 7.3 7.4 31.5% -- 50 --
2022 NE 198 876 8 4.4 3 3.7% 18 15 122 0 83% 8.1 4.1%

Harris took a major leap year-over-year, once again leading the Patriots in yards from scrimmage and becoming the first New
England running back to put up back-to-back 100-plus-DYAR seasons on the ground since Danny Woodhead in 2011 and 2012.
He also led New England in total touchdowns. In 2020, Harris had just three carries inside the 5-yard line for an average of -1.2
yards. That spiked in 2021 to 16 rushes that averaged 3.0 yards apiece, punching in nine touchdowns. Harris’ rushing ability
helped propel New England to the No. 7 team rushing DVOA in 2021.
Despite the major improvements, the running back position in New England is a constant revolving door. Harris is in the
final year of his contract in New England. Just like he made Sony Michel expendable, the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson
could be a sign of things to come for Harris. For the time being, Harris remains the Patriots’ lead back, but Stevenson serves as
a complementary running back 1B as opposed to a true No. 2.

Najee Harris Height: 6-2 Weight: 230 College: Alabama Draft: 2021/1 (24) Born: 9-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 PIT 17/17 980 307 1200 7 3.9 0 -4.8% 35 48 33 49% 34 87 2.6 94 74 467 3 79% 6.3 6.7 -14.0% 40 -1 40
2022 PIT 288 1080 8 3.8 1 -7.9% 63 50 358 2 79% 7.2 -4.8%

Fantasy football players beware: 19 of Harris’ 94 targets came in one game against the Bengals in Week 3, a game that Di-
ontae Johnson missed and where Roethlisberger threw 58 passes in as the Steelers found themselves in a 24-7 hole. Harris will
get plenty of targets, but do not expect 94 again. Considering the quality of the line, one of the most impressive stats of Harris’
rookie season is that he didn’t fumble once. Of course, he immediately fumbled in the playoff loss at Arrowhead, but that’s still
a really encouraging number considering the workload. It’s hard to fully trust the offense around him, but Harris had a solid
rookie season and should remain heavily involved.

Hassan Haskins Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Michigan Draft: 2022/4 (131) Born: 26-Nov-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 TEN 55 219 2 4.0 0 -2.9% 10 8 56 0 80% 7.0 -13.4%
 RUNNING BACKS 305

Haskins is a powerful downhill runner, but that didn’t come with a ton of ability to break tackles and run after contact. Among
169 collegiate running backs with at least 100 carries last season, Haskins ranked 126th in broken tackles per attempt according
to SIS charting. His power does allow him to take on contact, even if it doesn’t lead to explosive gains. Haskins was hit at the
line on 31.3% of his rushing attempts, one of the lowest rates among those 169 running backs (133rd), but his 8.5% stuffed rate
was ninth lowest of that group. Haskins could bring some goal-line punch to Tennessee: he had the fourth-most carries in the
red zone (58) and led college football running backs with 19 rushing touchdowns inside the 20. The risk of an injury to Derrick
Henry makes Haskins an excellent stash for the end of your fantasy bench.

JaMycal Hasty Height: 5-9 Weight: 205 College: Baylor Draft: 2020/FA Born: 12-Sep-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 SF 8/0 97 39 148 1 3.8 1 -8.0% -- 1 -- 49% -- 5 1.6 8 7 33 0 88% 4.7 6.7 -54.9% -- -14 --
2021 SF 11/0 153 16 68 1 4.3 1 9.5% -- 13 -- 56% -- 8 1.9 29 23 157 0 79% 6.8 5.6 -21.0% 49 -12 48
2022 SF 9 38 0 4.2 0 11.0% 0 0 0 0 0% 0.0 0.0%

On a 2021 49ers team with a variety of different skill sets in the running back room, Hasty fit in primarily as a pass-catching
threat out of the backfield. Over the course of the season, he saw nearly twice as many targets as carries in a part-time role,
never playing more than 36% of offensive snaps in a game. In the latter half of the season, Hasty pitched in by returning a
handful of kickoffs, though he was not particularly successful there. With the addition of Ray-Ray McCloud to serve as a return
specialist and an already-crowded 49ers backfield receiving extra reinforcements in the form of third-round pick Tyrion Davis-
Price, Hasty could be at risk of being cut before the season starts. His pass-catching prowess makes him somewhat unique
amongst the 49ers’ gaggle of running backs, but that alone may not be enough to secure his spot on the roster.

Darrell Henderson Height: 5-8 Weight: 208 College: Memphis Draft: 2019/3 (70) Born: 19-Aug-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 LAR 13/0 95 39 147 0 3.8 0 -11.6% -- -5 -- 46% -- 15 3.1 6 4 37 0 67% 9.3 9.3 -8.1% -- 2 --
2020 LAR 15/11 348 138 624 5 4.5 0 21.4% 4 185 9 55% 11 19 2.2 25 16 159 1 67% 9.9 9.4 17.2% 12 43 20
2021 LAR 12/10 507 149 688 5 4.6 0 10.1% 12 122 15 58% 7 17 2.0 40 29 176 3 73% 6.1 6.2 -30.6% 53 -40 53
2022 LAR 123 528 4 4.3 1 2.6% 32 24 168 1 75% 7.0 -13.6%

A knee injury knocked Henderson out for the end of the regular season and most of the playoffs. This was after a quad issue
sidelined him in December, which was after he was shelved with damaged ribs in September. And all of that comes after his
first two seasons, when he missed time due to ankle and hamstring woes. Carry-for-carry, Henderson has been a superior back
to Cam Akers early in their respective careers, but Henderson’s constant trips back and forth to the trainer’s room (and Akers’
ability to quickly return from a torn Achilles, an injury worse than anything Henderson has suffered) mean he is unlikely get the
bulk of the carries going forward. He’s entering the final year of his contract, so it’s critical that he makes the most of whatever
carries he gets.

Derrick Henry Height: 6-3 Weight: 247 College: Alabama Draft: 2016/2 (45) Born: 4-Jan-1994 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 TEN 15/15 602 303 1540 16 5.1 5 6.7% 11 192 6 50% 17 69 3.2 24 18 206 2 75% 11.4 13.1 21.8% -- 46 --
2020 TEN 16/16 704 378 2027 17 5.4 3 15.5% 10 386 1 57% 7 61 3.6 31 19 114 0 61% 6.0 6.7 -53.3% 48 -75 47
2021 TEN 8/8 411 219 937 10 4.3 1 2.2% 26 99 18 45% 42 25 3.1 20 18 154 0 90% 8.6 8.9 27.3% -- 45 --
2022 TEN 328 1432 11 4.4 2 1.8% 24 19 144 0 79% 7.6 -10.2%

Despite playing only eight games, Henry still had the third-most rushing attempts against a stacked box of eight or more de-
fenders in 2021. Only Jonathan Taylor (95) and Damien Harris (86) had more than Henry’s 82. Henry also had the ninth-most
carries on first down. Again, he played eight games. Among 23 running backs with at least 100 first-down carries, Henry was
seventh in DVOA but 22nd in success rate. That boom-or-bust type of running was more apparent as defenses put more defend-
ers in the box against the Titans and Henry broke fewer tackles running into them. Henry’s broken tackle rate dropped from
21.5% to 15.1% to 9.5% over the past three seasons. The longer gains also slowed down with Henry’s rate of runs that gained
10-plus yards dropping from 13.9% to 12.7% to 9.1%.
306 RUNNING BACKS

Khalil Herbert Height: 5-9 Weight: 212 College: Virginia Tech Draft: 2021/6 (217) Born: 21-Apr-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 CHI 17/2 313 103 433 2 4.2 0 10.1% 13 78 27 50% 29 19 2.6 16 14 96 0 88% 6.9 7.2 -0.4% -- 12 --
2022 CHI 72 297 2 4.1 0 -1.5% 14 12 78 0 86% 6.5 -9.5%

Herbert was a pleasant surprise as a rookie and made it easy for the Bears to let Damien Williams walk in free agency. Above
all, Herbert’s vision was impressive for such a young player with limited expectations. He toes the line between patience and
alertness, rarely running himself into trouble but still remaining ready to burst at any time. On its face, Herbert’s 50% success
rate was just fine, but it was slightly better than that of David Montgomery’s and quite good when considering the Bears were
just 23rd in adjusted line yards and 30th in stuff rate.
One advantage Herbert showed last season was his comfort out of shotgun. Herbert’s 36 shotgun carries earned a 20.7%
DVOA, which was better than Montgomery’s and just a few points short of other elite backs such as Ezekiel Elliott and Nick
Chubb. Lastly, Herbert’s broken tackle rate last year was highly encouraging, earning 19 broken tackles on just 103 carries.
Herbert is a good No. 2 and viable spot starter as a runner, and anything he does to get better as a pass-catcher in 2022 could go
a long way in establishing himself as an all-around good player.

Dontrell Hilliard Height: 5-11 Weight: 202 College: Tulane Draft: 2018/FA Born: 26-Feb-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CLE 14/0 134 13 49 2 3.8 0 17.3% -- 15 -- 46% -- 3 2.0 15 12 92 0 80% 7.7 8.6 16.5% -- 24 --
2020 2TM 7/0 22 9 48 0 5.3 0 11.3% -- 9 -- 67% -- 0 5.0 1 1 2 0 100% 2.0 2.0 -81.0% -- -5 --
2021 TEN 8/5 198 56 350 2 6.3 2 22.3% -- 65 -- 46% -- 9 2.9 26 19 87 0 73% 4.6 5.7 -47.5% 57 -55 55
2022 TEN 50 258 1 5.2 1 12.2% 25 18 129 1 72% 7.2 -23.8%

Hilliard’s best two games of the 2021 season were the first two with significant playing time after Derrick Henry’s injury.
Hilliard immediately stepped in as a checkdown option against the Texans with eight catches on 10 targets for 47 yards … but
he only had 11 catches and 40 yards total in the rest of the year. In Week 12, he had 12 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown
… but he only had 184 yards and a touchdown for the remainder of the regular season. Hilliard wasn’t a great early-down run-
ner, but his positive DVOA on the season comes from an incredible 201.6% DVOA, 100% success rate, and 123 rushing yards
on six third- and fourth-down carries.

Nyheim Hines Height: 5-9 Weight: 198 College: North Carolina State Draft: 2018/4 (104) Born: 12-Nov-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 IND 16/2 341 52 199 2 3.8 1 8.4% -- 38 -- 52% -- 14 2.0 58 44 320 0 76% 7.3 7.2 -21.5% 44 -24 43
2020 IND 16/2 391 89 380 3 4.3 0 -2.5% -- 22 -- 44% -- 20 2.4 76 63 482 4 83% 7.7 7.5 23.7% 5 158 2
2021 IND 17/4 352 56 276 2 4.9 1 29.3% -- 82 -- 48% -- 17 2.1 58 40 310 1 70% 7.8 7.0 -15.1% 41 -4 43
2022 IND 65 294 2 4.5 1 4.2% 47 35 247 1 74% 7.1 -19.2%

Carson Wentz loathes checking down and only does so grudgingly. That explains the drop in Hines’ receiving DVOA. Hines
had a two-catch, 5-yard game, a one catch for -2 yards on three targets game, a 4-for-14 game and other duds mixed in among
more productive performances. You can almost see Wentz waiting until the last possible moment before squirting the ball to
Hines long after he has any hope of doing anything with it. Hines is one of the fastest running backs in the NFL and is useful
as both Jonathan Taylor’s change-up and as a slot receiver (16 slot targets in 2021).

Jordan Howard Height: 6-0 Weight: 224 College: Indiana Draft: 2016/5 (150) Born: 2-Nov-1994 Age: 28 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 PHI 10/4 283 119 525 6 4.4 0 14.2% 6 113 14 53% 8 15 2.7 14 10 69 1 71% 6.9 6.9 6.7% -- 17 --
2020 2TM 7/4 68 35 60 4 1.7 1 -36.7% -- -51 -- 31% -- 1 1.5 1 1 -3 0 100% -3.0 0.0 -391.5% -- -27 --
2021 PHI 7/0 153 86 406 3 4.7 0 15.9% -- 93 -- 64% -- 8 2.7 5 2 19 0 40% 9.5 7.0 13.0% -- 7 --
 RUNNING BACKS 307

Just when you thought Howard was done, buried in the Going Deep section of last year’s Almanac, never to return … the Ea-
gles resurrected him. Activated from the practice squad in late October after Miles Sanders landed on injured reserve, Howard
carried the ball well for a stretch, averaging 68.5 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry from Week 8 through 11. He sustained a
stinger in Week 16 and was limited thereafter. The Eagles head into training camp with Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston
Scott as their primary running backs and will look at undrafted free agent Kennedy Brooks (Oklahoma) as a potential fourth.
Howard remains unsigned.

Chuba Hubbard Height: 6-0 Weight: 201 College: Oklahoma State Draft: 2021/4 (126) Born: 11-Jun-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 CAR 17/10 465 172 612 5 3.6 1 -14.3% 44 -42 44 44% 45 20 2.4 37 25 174 1 68% 7.0 6.9 -8.1% 33 11 35
2022 CAR 30 104 1 3.5 0 -9.0% 12 9 69 0 75% 7.7 -26.8%

Hubbard’s rookie season was disappointing. His -14.3% rushing DVOA was sixth worst among rookies in the past decade.
He struggled in the receiving game, too, tied for second with seven drops and finishing last among qualified running backs with
a 21.9% drop rate. There’s a reason the Panthers went out and got D’Onta Foreman to help backup the oft-injured Christian
McCaffrey; going into 2022 with only Hubbard behind CMC would have been negligent. A silver lining is that Hubbard was
near the bottom of the league with just 1.63 yards before contact. Poor line play in front of him kept him from building up a head
of steam. Hubbard still needs to do better, but he might have a chance if he can get a handoff without three defensive linemen
immediately converging on him every snap.

Kareem Hunt Height: 5-11 Weight: 216 College: Toledo Draft: 2017/3 (86) Born: 6-Aug-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CLE 8/3 313 43 179 2 4.2 1 7.9% -- 26 -- 53% -- 34 2.7 44 37 285 1 84% 7.7 7.5 14.2% 15 71 16
2020 CLE 16/5 548 198 841 6 4.2 2 -0.6% 25 64 24 51% 24 50 2.5 51 38 304 5 75% 8.0 7.4 35.1% 3 148 3
2021 CLE 8/1 234 78 386 5 4.9 0 13.5% -- 72 -- 51% -- 17 3.2 28 22 174 0 81% 7.9 7.6 2.8% 23 27 28
2022 CLE 99 440 3 4.4 1 4.6% 52 42 292 2 81% 7.0 -2.8%

On his way to yet another season as one of the best backup running backs in the NFL, Hunt went on IR with a midseason calf
injury, then hurt his ankle in Week 14 after he came back. Hunt’s contract expires after the season and smoke is blowing that he
could be available in a trade with the Browns drafting Jerome Ford and rostering several other good backs that deserve 53-man
spots. Hunt would likely challenge to be a top-10 fantasy football asset if he were dealt to a good situation where he was an
every-down player. If he stays in Cleveland, he’ll again be on the fantasy radar, just as more of a non-prominent PPR option.

Carlos Hyde Height: 6-0 Weight: 229 College: Ohio State Draft: 2014/2 (57) Born: 20-Sep-1990 Age: 32 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 HOU 16/14 538 245 1070 6 4.4 4 -3.3% 26 54 22 52% 13 34 2.3 16 10 42 0 63% 4.2 5.1 -50.3% -- -36 --
2020 SEA 10/1 260 81 356 4 4.4 1 4.7% -- 46 -- 49% -- 11 2.5 20 16 93 0 80% 5.8 6.8 -33.6% -- -19 --
2021 JAX 12/2 292 72 253 1 3.5 2 -11.0% -- -8 -- 49% -- 8 2.1 21 12 65 0 57% 5.4 6.3 -52.8% -- -42 --

Playing Carlos Hyde over James Robinson early in the season comes in at 45,379 on the countdown of “weird things Urban
Meyer did in Jacksonville.” Even still, Hyde’s only game with more than 10 carries came when he had 21 carries with Robinson
injured in Week 9. Hyde suffered a concussion in Week 14 which ended his season, and the Jaguars cut him in March. His career
is probably over. His best season will go down as 2016 with the 49ers, when he went 216-991-6 and finished sixth in rushing
DYAR. That team was 2-14, which says something about the value of good running backs in the modern NFL.
308 RUNNING BACKS

Mark Ingram Height: 5-9 Weight: 215 College: Alabama Draft: 2011/1 (28) Born: 21-Dec-1989 Age: 33 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 BAL 15/15 511 202 1018 10 5.0 2 19.8% 2 257 3 60% 1 46 2.7 29 26 247 5 90% 9.5 8.5 74.6% 1 145 3
2020 BAL 11/9 160 72 299 2 4.2 0 -6.8% -- 5 -- 51% -- 5 1.9 8 6 50 0 75% 8.3 8.2 -10.9% -- 1 --
2021 2TM 14/10 400 160 554 2 3.5 1 -20.6% 49 -81 49 40% 49 30 2.3 35 27 162 0 77% 6.0 6.1 -15.2% 42 -3 41
2022 NO 190 680 6 3.6 1 -9.5% 21 17 128 1 81% 7.5 -6.1%

Considering Alvin Kamara’s uncertain status, it’s odd that the Saints didn’t upgrade over Ingram as their backup running
back. Ingram’s explosiveness has long since gone, although he did look better in New Orleans than he did in Houston (who
wouldn’t?). It’s impressive that Ingram has lasted into his 12th NFL season, but Ingram seems more or less done. He set career
lows in DYAR, DVOA, success rate, yards per carry and yards before contact. And there’s a very good chance he’ll be the Week
1 starter, as Kamara works through his legal issues. Less than ideal.

Justin Jackson Height: 6-0 Weight: 200 College: Northwestern Draft: 2018/7 (251) Born: 22-Apr-1996 Age: 26 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 LAC 7/0 95 29 200 0 6.9 0 34.9% -- 50 -- 62% -- 9 4.9 11 9 22 0 82% 2.4 4.2 -74.9% -- -33 --
2020 LAC 9/4 190 59 270 0 4.6 0 9.2% -- 40 -- 46% -- 16 2.2 24 19 173 0 79% 9.1 11.6 23.1% -- 50 --
2021 LAC 14/2 231 68 364 2 5.4 1 7.0% -- 45 -- 51% -- 7 3.2 25 22 178 0 88% 8.1 7.5 38.7% 5 75 16

Jackson spent four years as Austin Ekeler’s answer to Austin Ekeler, the unheralded, discount-priced slasher off the bench
who is nearly as efficient as the RB1. Ekeler and Jackson were sharing backfield duties roughly 60-40 in December, with nearly
interchangeable roles, and Jackson earned a start and 19 touches when Ekeler was unavailable against the Texans due to CO-
VID. But the Chargers added Isaiah Spiller in the draft, and Jackson remained an unsigned free agent at press time. Some team
should have interest in a rusher who has averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career and provides receiving and special teams
value. Jackson may have to wait for the first round of training camp injuries before getting an offer.

Josh Jacobs Height: 5-10 Weight: 220 College: Alabama Draft: 2019/1 (24) Born: 11-Feb-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 OAK 13/13 469 242 1150 7 4.8 1 3.5% 14 126 12 51% 14 68 3.0 27 20 166 0 74% 8.3 9.2 4.6% 20 28 27
2020 LV 15/15 616 273 1065 12 3.9 2 -12.9% 39 -54 43 51% 23 50 2.4 45 33 238 0 73% 7.2 7.2 -5.2% 31 20 33
2021 LV 15/14 625 217 872 9 4.0 2 -5.7% 37 28 35 54% 20 56 2.5 64 54 348 0 84% 6.4 7.3 -9.5% 36 16 33
2022 LV 217 854 8 3.9 2 -3.6% 46 36 266 1 78% 7.4 -10.5%

Jacobs went 69-324-2 in the final three regular-season Raiders games and rushed 13 times for 83 yards in their playoff loss
after being a non-factor as a featured runner for most of the season, in large part because he shared carries with Kenyan Drake.
Jacobs only cracked 75 rushing yards twice before his post-Christmas surge, and while he set a career mark for receptions,
he produced a stunning array of five-catch, 20-ish-yard stat lines. The Raiders declined Jacobs’ fifth-year contract option this
offseason, believing (correctly) that Jacobs’ just-above-replacement-level production won’t be worth over $8 million in 2023.
Jacobs remains the chairman of the Raiders backfield committee, but Drake is an influential board member, Brandon Bolden is
the new boss’ favorite factotum, and rookie Zamir White may attempt a hostile takeover.

David Johnson Height: 6-1 Weight: 224 College: Northern Iowa Draft: 2015/3 (86) Born: 16-Dec-1991 Age: 31 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 ARI 13/9 445 94 345 2 3.7 1 -10.8% -- -9 -- 43% -- 14 2.0 47 36 370 4 77% 10.3 6.3 29.2% 6 114 8
2020 HOU 12/12 550 147 691 6 4.7 2 2.2% 23 71 23 46% 41 24 2.3 46 33 314 2 72% 9.5 7.1 0.1% 27 39 24
2021 HOU 13/4 317 67 228 0 3.4 1 -24.6% -- -39 -- 33% -- 14 2.1 42 32 225 1 76% 7.0 6.0 -0.2% 28 30 26

It’s hard to tell which was more disappointing—Johnson’s 2020 season as an ineffective high-volume running back, or his
2021 when it was clear his tank was near empty as a runner and he barely got carries at all. Johnson’s season-high in carries was
13 and his yardage high was 39. Johnson actually broke tackles at a higher rate than he did in 2020 (11.9% to 9.5%), though it
 RUNNING BACKS 309

still wasn’t near where he was at his peak and he was hit at the line more often (38.8% to 26.5%) so there was nowhere to run
after a tackle was broken. Still a free agent as of early July.

D'Ernest Johnson Height: 5-10 Weight: 208 College: South Florida Draft: 2019/FA Born: 27-Feb-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CLE 16/0 47 4 21 0 5.3 0 -10.2% -- 0 -- 0% -- 2 4.5 7 6 71 0 86% 11.8 7.2 35.0% -- 14 --
2020 CLE 16/0 81 33 166 0 5.0 1 -7.9% -- 1 -- 42% -- 4 2.1 4 3 14 0 75% 4.7 4.0 -68.8% -- -12 --
2021 CLE 17/2 331 100 534 3 5.3 1 27.8% 1 142 10 55% 15 31 3.4 25 19 137 0 76% 7.2 7.3 -21.2% 50 -10 46
2022 CLE 30 142 1 4.7 0 9.9% 15 11 76 0 73% 6.9 -29.4%

The Browns called on Johnson to start twice. He averaged 6.64 yards per carry against the Broncos on Week 7’s Thursday
Night Football, and he made it to 99 yards on 19 carries against the Patriots in Week 10 despite the Browns losing 45-7. He has
been explosive whenever given a chance and finished fourth in the NFL in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected despite the
low carry total. The Browns would likely give their other backs more passing-down work if they moved on from Kareem Hunt,
but Johnson with consistent run would be fascinating wherever it happens.

Duke Johnson Height: 5-9 Weight: 210 College: Miami Draft: 2015/3 (77) Born: 23-Sep-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 HOU 16/2 531 83 410 2 4.9 1 -2.0% -- 21 -- 48% -- 35 3.1 62 44 410 3 71% 9.3 8.2 24.6% 9 125 6
2020 HOU 11/5 354 77 235 1 3.1 3 -45.1% -- -117 -- 43% -- 18 2.0 35 28 249 1 80% 8.9 7.9 1.4% 24 30 29
2021 MIA 5/4 149 71 330 3 4.6 0 12.6% -- 65 -- 55% -- 19 2.6 5 4 41 0 80% 10.3 12.8 32.9% -- 15 --
2022 BUF 44 182 1 4.1 0 1.1% 19 14 111 1 74% 7.9 -12.5%

The Bills had a clear priority to add a receiving back this offseason. They started those efforts by finding and then losing J.D.
McKissic, who backed out of his new deal to return to Washington. They ended them by drafting James Cook in the second
round. In between, they added Duke Johnson, whose six years in Cleveland and Houston earn him the same consideration.
From 2015 to 2020, Johnson caught a pass on 40.1% of his total touches, the sixth-highest rate among backs with 400 or
more touches. And he had an above average receiving DVOA in each of those six seasons. The oddity is 2021 because, with
the Dolphins, Johnson saw just five targets against his standard volume of 71 carries. That 5.3% receiving ratio was fourth
lowest among backs with 50 or more touches last season. Does it mean anything? It probably means that teams shouldn’t use
co-offensive coordinators. For the Bills, expect Johnson to play his traditional role—if he plays at all with Cook on the roster.
Devin Singletary is a capable early-down back.

Ty Johnson Height: 5-10 Weight: 208 College: Maryland Draft: 2019/6 (186) Born: 17-Sep-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DET 16/1 318 63 273 0 4.3 1 3.5% -- 28 -- 44% -- 8 2.5 31 24 109 0 77% 4.5 3.9 -40.2% 50 -45 47
2020 2TM 13/1 174 54 254 1 4.7 0 -5.0% -- 8 -- 56% -- 7 1.9 21 16 99 1 76% 6.2 8.1 0.7% -- 16 --
2021 NYJ 16/3 409 61 238 2 3.9 1 -9.7% -- -3 -- 46% -- 12 2.0 55 34 372 2 62% 10.9 9.8 22.4% 11 108 10
2022 NYJ 7 29 0 4.1 0 14.6% 5 4 29 0 80% 7.3 -24.2%

The New York Jets picked Johnson up in October of 2020 after he was cut by the Detroit Lions. While he was severely under-
utilized under Adam Gase, Johnson proved to be a massive boon for Mike LaFleur, who managed to truly unlock Johnson as
a receiving back. Johnson finished 10th in receiving DYAR and 11th in DVOA, and he wasn’t catching simple screens, either.
Johnson was a downfield target, finishing fourth in average depth of target among running backs. Breece Hall and Michael
Carter may take the brunt of the carries this season, but Johnson should be able to earn reps in passing situations.
310 RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones Height: 5-9 Weight: 208 College: Texas-El Paso Draft: 2017/5 (182) Born: 2-Dec-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 GB 16/16 676 236 1084 16 4.6 3 12.0% 7 207 4 56% 5 54 2.6 68 49 474 3 72% 9.7 8.9 -5.1% 29 35 24
2020 GB 14/14 539 201 1104 9 5.5 2 20.3% 5 254 4 59% 5 49 3.3 63 47 355 2 75% 7.6 7.8 -5.6% 33 30 30
2021 GB 15/15 578 171 799 4 4.7 2 9.9% 14 131 13 50% 32 39 2.9 65 52 391 6 80% 7.5 7.9 11.9% 16 97 13
2022 GB 213 995 8 4.7 2 7.6% 59 46 381 3 78% 8.3 6.2%

Believe it or not, Jones’ 50% success rate last season was the worst mark of his career. It is somewhat startling to compare
Jones’ success rate to that of teammate AJ Dillon, a league-best 63%. That said, Jones is better as a space player who can gener-
ate explosive plays, and he did that fairly well last season. Jones ripped off eight runs of at least 15 yards compared to just four
from Dillon. Jones is also quite versatile as a pass-catcher, a skill the Packers may need to use even more in 2022. Nearly 30%
of Jones’ targets were from receiver alignments last year and it wouldn’t be a surprise if that number jumped a smidgen this
season. The Packers already trust Jones in high-leverage situations as well, tossing him 33 third-down targets over the past two
seasons, a figure that could be higher if he had not missed four games over that span. Not only that, but Jones ate 11 targets in
the receiver-less game against the Cardinals and 10 in the blizzard playoff game versus San Francisco, clearly showing Matt
LaFleur’s faith in him to be a playmaker when the chips are down.

Ronald Jones Height: 5-11 Weight: 208 College: USC Draft: 2018/2 (38) Born: 3-Aug-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 TB 16/9 422 172 724 6 4.2 3 -2.3% 24 43 23 45% 33 43 3.1 40 31 309 0 78% 10.0 9.5 9.2% 17 47 20
2020 TB 14/13 451 192 978 7 5.1 2 15.5% 11 195 7 57% 8 29 3.3 42 28 165 1 67% 5.9 5.6 -53.4% 49 -89 49
2021 TB 16/3 219 101 428 4 4.2 2 8.7% 17 79 26 62% 2 9 2.1 13 10 64 0 77% 6.4 7.7 -6.0% -- 6 --
2022 KC 164 710 5 4.3 2 2.0% 21 15 124 1 71% 8.3 -17.5%

Jones was Clyde Edwards-Helaire before Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He was a college big-play machine who landed in an of-
fense that should have given him lots of room to operate, but except for one 98-yard touchdown run against the Panthers in
2020, Jones has been a mildly disappointing plodder and unreliable receiver who lost his featured-back role to Leonard Four-
nette and a chunk of his third-down role to Gio Bernard in 2021. Jones and Edwards-Helaire will now leech carries from each
other while leaving fans and fantasy gamers alike to wonder why neither can seize the job and crank out a 1,400-yard season
behind a stellar offensive line and beside an All-Pro quarterback.

Tony Jones Height: 5-11 Weight: 224 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2020/FA Born: 24-Nov-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 NO 1/1 5 3 13 0 4.3 0 8.6% -- 2 -- 67% -- 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- --
2021 NO 11/4 132 54 142 0 2.6 0 -31.7% -- -53 -- 39% -- 1 1.6 8 5 29 0 63% 5.8 5.6 -36.0% -- -11 --
2022 NO 49 158 1 3.2 0 -13.0% 7 6 45 0 86% 7.5 -1.5%

Jones beat out Latavius Murray in camp for the role of between-the-tackles guy next to Alvin Kamara’s outside rushing. It’s
probably not a great sign, then, that the Saints felt the need to trade for Mark Ingram in the middle of the year to take over that
role. Ingram and Kamara were ineffective, but Jones was a disaster. His -31.7% DVOA was the worst for a Saints back with at
least 50 carries since Lamar Smith, Ray Zellars, and Troy Davis tripped over one another in 1998. Jones at least has an ankle
injury as an excuse, and he may get another shot at proving he deserves a roster slot if he can beat out UDFA Abram Smith.

Kyle Juszczyk Height: 6-1 Weight: 240 College: Harvard Draft: 2013/4 (130) Born: 23-Apr-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SF 12/12 396 3 7 0 2.3 0 -49.0% -- -7 -- 33% -- 1 3.0 24 20 239 1 83% 12.0 7.9 47.6% 2 98 11
2020 SF 16/15 472 17 64 2 3.8 1 16.4% -- 30 -- 82% -- 3 1.7 29 19 202 4 66% 10.6 5.3 22.0% 9 66 13
2021 SF 17/16 610 8 22 1 2.8 0 -16.0% -- -4 -- 50% -- 2 1.0 38 30 296 1 79% 9.9 5.0 42.6% 3 114 8
2022 SF 8 27 0 3.4 0 5.8% 31 24 205 1 77% 8.5 -0.6%
 RUNNING BACKS 311

Juszczyk turned in another typical year as the 49ers fullback, fulfilling his primary responsibilities as a lead blocker for the
49ers rushing attack but also providing head coach Kyle Shanahan with a great deal of play-calling flexibility due to his ability
to line up in different spots in the formation and provide a credible receiving threat. While Juszczyk has never exceeded 400
yards from scrimmage in a season, he is clearly valuable in the 49ers scheme for his ability to help unlock other pieces of the
offense. With an offensive line in flux heading into the 2022 season, Juszczyk’s run blocking will be even more necessary if
the team is going to replicate its rushing success from a year ago. The added threat of a quarterback run from Trey Lance will
surely help matters, but Juszczyk’s prowess as a blocker will be needed to offset some of the turnover along the interior line.

Alvin Kamara Height: 5-10 Weight: 215 College: Tennessee Draft: 2017/3 (67) Born: 25-Jul-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NO 14/9 636 171 797 5 4.7 4 3.1% 15 81 19 52% 12 56 2.6 97 81 533 1 84% 6.6 6.9 1.6% 23 83 13
2020 NO 15/10 658 187 932 16 5.0 1 23.1% 3 253 5 54% 15 59 2.5 107 83 756 5 78% 9.1 8.8 19.1% 11 195 1
2021 NO 13/10 627 240 898 4 3.7 0 -18.2% 47 -95 50 43% 47 45 2.7 67 47 439 5 70% 9.3 9.3 14.6% 14 102 11
2022 NO 180 700 6 3.9 1 -3.7% 54 40 352 2 74% 8.8 2.1%

Kamara ranked dead last in rushing DYAR, but -95 rushing DYAR isn’t that bad, historically speaking. Add in his receiving
value and Kamara bounces back above replacement, the sixth most-valuable least-valuable rusher in the DVOA era. You can
blame Kamara’s hamstring and knee injuries for some of his lack of production, but you can’t blame the drop in quarterback
play with Jameis Winston getting hurt. Kamara had a -17.6% rushing DVOA with Winston healthy and a -18.7% DVOA with
New Orleans’ squadron of backup quarterbacks. Kamara just isn’t built to rush through crowded fronts; he faced eight or more
defenders in the box on 31.3% of his carries last season, as opposed to 11.8% in 2020. If the Saints can’t get other teams to
respect the passing game, Kamara’s value is severely hamstrung.
More important than any of that is Kamara’s felony battery arrest. The hearing on those charges has been postponed until
August, with the NFL’s response likely being delayed until at least after that initial hearing. Consider Kamara’s availability
early on the season extremely questionable. Our projection assumes that Kamara starts the year with a six-game suspension.

Joshua Kelley Height: 5-11 Weight: 219 College: UCLA Draft: 2020/4 (112) Born: 20-Nov-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 LAC 14/0 297 111 354 2 3.2 2 -36.4% 47 -141 47 42% 46 13 1.6 23 23 148 0 100% 6.4 7.5 7.3% -- 27 --
2021 LAC 10/0 139 33 102 0 3.1 1 -42.9% -- -49 -- 30% -- 6 1.9 6 5 38 0 83% 7.6 6.2 5.9% -- 5 --
2022 LAC 46 161 2 3.5 1 -8.5% 13 11 85 0 85% 7.7 -5.9%

Fumbling while trying to go over the top at the goal line against the Chiefs in Week 15 may have been the final straw for
Kelley. He received just five carries when Austin Ekeler was on the COVID list against the Texans, then disappeared from the
game plan for the final two Chargers games. Fourth-round pick Isaiah Spiller will get every opportunity to claim the big-back
role that Kelley never adequately filled, and if Spiller cannot cut it, there’s Larry Rountree, Zander Horvath, UDFAs Leddie
Brown or Kevin Marks, the return of Justin Jackson, or just increasing Ekeler’s workload a bit.

Phillip Lindsay Height: 5-8 Weight: 190 College: Colorado Draft: 2018/FA Born: 24-Jul-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DEN 16/16 516 224 1011 7 4.5 0 1.9% 17 94 16 50% 19 45 2.4 48 35 196 0 73% 5.6 6.9 -39.7% 49 -69 50
2020 DEN 11/8 270 118 502 1 4.3 0 -24.2% 45 -70 45 40% 47 15 2.2 14 7 28 0 50% 4.0 5.6 -62.3% -- -38 --
2021 2TM 14/1 159 88 249 1 2.8 0 -18.4% -- -34 -- 38% -- 4 1.7 5 4 45 1 80% 11.3 13.3 23.5% -- 15 --
2022 IND 37 136 1 3.7 0 -6.8% 5 3 24 0 60% 8.0 -26.4%

Just a few years removed from his unexpected but standout 2018 rookie season with 1,037 rushing yards and a 17.3%
rushing DVOA that ranked sixth at his position, Lindsay has slid from starter to committee member to journeyman and now
unquestioned backup behind Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. Lindsay hasn’t lost the sub-4.4s speed that made him a steal as
an undrafted free agent, but he has shown two tendencies that limit his value. First, the 190-pound Lindsay has converted just
60.9% of his attempts on third and fourth downs with 2 or fewer yards to again, ranked 39th out of the 50 backs with 20 or
more such opportunities the last four seasons. Second, Lindsay has a 16.0% drop rate and -27.6% receiving DVOA in his ca-
312 RUNNING BACKS

reer. Limited as a contributor to early-down carries, Lindsay lacks the versatility modern teams prefer to confuse defenses and
to pass from non-traditional downs and distances. That said, he could excel on a Colts team whose strong run blocking opens
lanes for potential breakaway carries.

Marlon Mack Height: 6-0 Weight: 210 College: South Florida Draft: 2017/4 (143) Born: 7-Mar-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 IND 14/12 517 247 1091 8 4.4 0 1.0% 18 102 15 52% 10 39 2.3 17 14 82 0 82% 5.9 5.7 -18.5% -- -4 --
2020 IND 1/1 11 4 26 0 6.5 0 23.5% -- 6 -- 75% -- 0 2.0 3 3 30 0 100% 10.0 10.3 51.9% -- 11 --
2021 IND 6/0 59 28 101 0 3.6 0 -13.6% -- -5 -- 32% -- 4 1.8 5 2 8 0 40% 4.0 2.0 -74.3% -- -15 --
2022 HOU 142 571 4 4.0 1 -3.5% 19 15 105 0 79% 7.0 -21.4%

Mack recovered from a torn Achilles in 2020 and returned for limited, but inefficient, play in 2021. The limited play was
brought on due to being a healthy scratch for the entire second half of the season. Mack was made inactive in the first game
after the trade deadline and was not activated on game day again. During his 2019 run, Mack showed a balance of explosiveness
and efficiency, which could make a return with another year removed from the Achilles injury. He’s expected to be the starter
in Houston, at least in the early part of the season.

Alexander Mattison Height: 5-11 Weight: 221 College: Boise State Draft: 2019/3 (102) Born: 19-Jun-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 MIN 13/0 200 100 462 1 4.6 1 -2.2% 23 24 27 38% 45 16 2.7 12 10 82 0 83% 8.2 7.4 21.2% -- 18 --
2020 MIN 13/2 229 96 434 2 4.5 0 -2.8% -- 24 -- 47% -- 25 2.8 15 13 125 1 87% 9.6 8.3 52.9% -- 53 --
2021 MIN 16/4 377 134 491 3 3.7 1 -18.9% 48 -57 46 44% 43 26 2.5 39 32 228 1 82% 7.1 7.4 -16.4% 44 -5 45
2022 MIN 69 255 2 3.7 1 -7.1% 29 24 168 1 83% 7.0 -4.3%

Mattison is a solid backup, but it’s becoming clearer that he is not cut out for full-time work. Back in 2020, Mattison finished
the year with a 47% success rate on 96 runs, an underwhelming figure considering the Vikings finished first in adjusted line
yards and sixth in stuff rate. That should have been a sign for alarm, since Mattison’s tape was also littered with indecision and
underwhelming burst through the line of scrimmage. The Vikings offensive line got much worse in 2021 and Mattison didn’t
have any of the tools to overcome, seeing his success rate fall to 44%. He also struggled to pull off explosive plays. Mattison
earned just four 15-plus-yard runs on 134 carries; Cook had 19 such runs on 249 carries. Moreover, Mattison’s red zone DVOA
has been in the negatives in all three of his pro seasons, thanks to his indecision. Granted, Cook was also in the negatives last
year because the line was so putrid, but Mattison was still worse across the board.
Mattison took on a larger role as a receiver last year, which is an encouraging sign for his future. He may not have the ex-
plosiveness or wiggle to consistently earn chunk gains from those opportunities, but simply turning into a reliable checkdown
option and a decent threat on screens is a nice feather in his cap.

Christian McCaffrey Height: 5-11 Weight: 205 College: Stanford Draft: 2017/1 (8) Born: 7-Jun-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CAR 16/16 1056 287 1387 15 4.8 1 14.9% 5 278 2 47% 28 73 2.0 142 116 1005 4 82% 8.7 8.5 34.8% 4 386 1
2020 CAR 3/3 171 59 225 5 3.8 0 5.0% -- 37 -- 56% -- 11 2.2 20 17 149 1 89% 8.8 6.8 42.5% -- 60 --
2021 CAR 7/7 272 99 442 1 4.5 1 7.0% -- 62 -- 52% -- 22 2.6 41 37 343 1 90% 9.3 7.0 33.8% 7 116 7
2022 CAR 251 1070 8 4.3 2 0.0% 116 96 757 3 83% 7.9 6.8%

McCaffrey’s numbers remain strong when he can find the field, but there are some signs that injuries have been taking his
toll on him, even when “healthy.” McCaffrey has just 11 broken tackles as a rusher over the last two seasons, or just a 7.0%
rate. From 2017 to 2019, he got through tackles on 11.2% of his rushes. That latter number would place him squarely in the
top 10 among running backs, but the former doesn’t crack the top 25. McCaffrey is still an effective player when he makes
his way onto the field; his low DVOA numbers can be chalked up more to his supporting cast than McCaffrey himself. But it
would not be the most surprising outcome in the world if years of ankle and hamstring injuries have zapped some of the pep
from McCaffrey’s style.
 RUNNING BACKS 313

Jerick McKinnon Height: 5-9 Weight: 209 College: Georgia Southern Draft: 2014/3 (96) Born: 3-May-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 SF 16/4 372 81 319 5 3.9 0 8.3% -- 53 -- 41% -- 18 2.2 46 33 253 1 72% 7.7 5.4 22.7% 7 83 10
2021 KC 13/0 172 12 62 0 5.2 0 21.5% -- 14 -- 67% -- 5 1.6 21 13 107 1 65% 8.2 9.6 15.0% -- 35 --
2022 KC 41 167 1 4.1 1 0.2% 27 20 172 1 74% 8.6 -8.9%

McKinnon was brilliant in the playoffs for the Chiefs, with 315 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown in three games.
He was ordinary or unavailable due to injury in most of his eight previous seasons, including the 2021 regular season, much of
which was spent on the IR with a hamstring injury. The Chiefs brought McKinnon back in June. Theoretically, he’ll be back to
playing mostly special teams and backing up Ronald Jones and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

J.D. McKissic Height: 5-10 Weight: 195 College: Arkansas State Draft: 2016/FA Born: 15-Aug-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DET 16/3 262 38 205 0 5.4 0 6.5% -- 23 -- 47% -- 14 3.1 42 34 233 1 81% 6.9 7.0 -8.2% 34 12 35
2020 WAS 16/7 641 85 365 1 4.3 3 7.7% -- 57 -- 52% -- 21 2.2 110 80 589 2 73% 7.4 6.3 -9.0% 37 30 28
2021 WAS 11/3 343 48 212 2 4.4 0 19.8% -- 56 -- 63% -- 6 1.3 53 43 397 2 81% 9.2 8.8 20.6% 12 98 12
2022 WAS 53 221 2 4.2 1 0.6% 34 26 197 1 76% 7.6 -14.7%

Has a two-year, $7-million contract ever delivered so much fantasy impact? McKissic was going to desert the Commanders
for Buffalo in April, but reneged on the contract as free agency was officially opening. The cascade effect helped destroy An-
tonio Gibson’s fantasy value and boosted James Cook into the perfect place. McKissic missed the last six weeks of 2021 with
a concussion, but remains a PPR-viable back as Washington had a hard time hanging in games against tougher opponents and
could never get Curtis Samuel fully healthy. While we’re happy that McKissic was rewarded with the contract, there’s not a ton
of upside for him in 2022 with the running back committee gaining a new member in Brian Robinson. He’ll look to dominate
passing downs again.

Jeremy McNichols Height: 5-9 Weight: 205 College: Boise State Draft: 2017/5 (162) Born: 26-Dec-1995 Age: 27 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 JAX 1/0 3 0 0 0 0.0 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 0 0 0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- --
2020 TEN 16/0 271 47 204 1 4.3 0 -10.9% -- -4 -- 45% -- 5 2.1 17 12 55 0 71% 4.6 4.3 -50.0% -- -32 --
2021 TEN 14/0 269 41 156 0 3.8 0 -3.8% -- 7 -- 41% -- 8 2.1 38 28 240 1 74% 8.6 9.1 -11.5% 37 5 39

Looking at McNichols’ targets, it would appear he was more involved in the passing game, but 12 of those targets (along
with eight catches and 74 yards) came in one game in Week 4 against the Jets. McNichols still got most of his work on third
downs, where he had -1.1% DVOA on 21 passes. He only had seven third-down rushes, but managed -114.7% DVOA and was
hit behind the line on four of them. He has already bounced around this offseason, signed and released by the Falcons before
training camps even opened.

Sony Michel Height: 5-11 Weight: 215 College: Georgia Draft: 2018/1 (31) Born: 17-Feb-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NE 16/14 422 247 912 7 3.7 2 -6.4% 29 23 28 49% 22 30 2.4 20 12 94 0 60% 7.8 10.1 -21.3% -- -9 --
2020 NE 9/6 181 79 449 1 5.7 0 19.9% -- 94 -- 56% -- 17 3.2 9 7 114 1 78% 16.3 15.7 101.5% -- 64 --
2021 LAR 17/7 538 208 845 4 4.1 1 0.6% 27 83 25 54% 17 43 2.2 33 21 128 1 64% 6.1 6.3 -27.8% 52 -27 52
2022 MIA 113 459 4 4.1 1 -1.3% 11 9 59 0 82% 6.6 -20.6%

In Week 3 against Tampa Bay, the Rams had a first down near midfield early in the fourth quarter. Michel lined up to Matthew
Stafford’s left and stepped outside at the snap. Then he spotted Bucs defensive back Ross Cockrell coming unblocked on a blitz
off the right side, so he switched direction and crossed the formation to send Cockrell flying ass-over-teakettle in a highlight
block shared by FOX on social media. Stafford completed a pass instead of taking a sack and the Rams went on to kick a field
goal that extended their lead to 34-17 and effectively ended the game. It was a spectacular example of the kind of protection
314 RUNNING BACKS

Michel offered week-in and week-out. The Rams had pro football’s best offense against blitzes, allowing a total of two sack
plays by second-level defenders all season (half a sack each by San Francisco linebacker Fred Warner and Jacksonville safety
Rudy Ford). Michel now joins a suddenly crowded running back room in Miami. Given his record of mediocre rushing and ter-
rible receiving (nine drops in 73 career targets, per SIS charting), the Dolphins should probably just hand off to Raheem Mostert
and throw to Chase Edmonds while letting Michel worry about keeping Tua Tagovailoa upright.

Elijah Mitchell Height: 5-11 Weight: 217 College: Louisiana Draft: 2021/6 (194) Born: 2-May-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 SF 11/10 441 207 963 5 4.7 0 5.7% 19 123 14 50% 30 32 2.9 20 19 137 1 95% 7.2 7.9 41.2% -- 52 --
2022 SF 211 873 5 4.1 1 -2.5% 24 19 139 1 79% 7.3 -9.8%

Heading into the 2021 season, San Francisco had a pretty crowded running back depth chart between incumbent starter Ra-
heem Mostert, longtime backup Jeff Wilson, pass-catching threat JaMycal Hasty, and rookies Trey Sermon and Mitchell. No
one would have faulted him for failing to make much of an impact as a rookie, but Mitchell did much more than that. After Ser-
mon struggled to seize the starting role in the wake of Mostert’s season-ending injury, Mitchell emerged as the team’s preferred
running back option. While Mitchell was not a major part of the team’s passing attack, he played the role of early-down grinder
quite well. Staying on schedule with the running game is very important for Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling flow, and Mitchell
rode the 49ers’ strong run blocking to effective results. He had a pretty successful year for a sixth-round rookie, but one area
that left much to be desired was on third and fourth down, where he had a 0% (!) success rate on 10 carries. The team’s struggles
there probably provided the impetus for drafting Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round this year, and Mitchell will have to fend
him off in addition to the rest of the running back group to keep his hold on the starting gig.

Joe Mixon Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2017/2 (48) Born: 24-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CIN 16/15 661 278 1137 5 4.1 0 -0.9% 20 90 17 46% 30 71 2.8 45 35 287 3 78% 8.2 9.5 19.3% 13 86 12
2020 CIN 6/6 290 119 428 3 3.6 1 -11.6% 38 -16 37 46% 39 18 2.1 26 21 138 1 81% 6.6 8.1 -4.8% 30 13 34
2021 CIN 16/16 698 292 1205 13 4.1 2 -1.8% 32 87 24 51% 28 39 2.6 48 42 314 3 88% 7.5 7.6 -18.8% 48 -16 50
2022 CIN 272 1062 9 3.9 2 -4.2% 56 49 348 2 88% 7.1 13.0%

Mixon was the first to celebrate when Frank Pollack returned to Cincy as offensive line coach and running game coordinator,
for Mix had a breakout season the last time Pollack was in charge back in 2018. And sure enough, in 2021 Mixon set career
highs in yards (he sat out Week 18, so the extra game doesn’t matter) and, easily, touchdowns (factor in his three receiving
scores and he averaged a touchdown per game in 2021). But Mixon was far less efficient than he had been in 2018, and the rest
of his career, for that matter. For once, you can’t really fault that bedraggled line, either—the Bengals were 15th in adjusted line
yards with 4.36, while their running backs averaged only 4.17 yards per carry.
Blame the backstretch. After bombing the Steelers for 165 yards in Week 12, Jumpin’ Joe had 924 yards after 11 games.
But his numbers tanked after that. How much of that was due to injuries along the line, a tougher schedule, or weariness is
difficult to determine. Before the season the term “bellcow” was thrown in Mixon’s direction quite a bit, but the workload
may have backfired.

Joe Mixon Rushing Splits, 2021

Weeks G Runs Yds TD Yd/R Yd/G DVOA
Weeks 1-12 11 208 924 11 4.44 84.0 3.6%
Weeks 13-22 9 151 543 3 3.60 60.3 -9.8%

Mixon is only entering his age-26 season, and the improvements up front should benefit him as much if not more than Joe
Burrow. Still, if you draft him in fantasy, you might want to start watching the waiver wire closely around midseason.
 RUNNING BACKS 315

David Montgomery Height: 5-10 Weight: 222 College: Iowa State Draft: 2019/3 (73) Born: 7-Jun-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CHI 16/8 625 242 889 6 3.7 2 -13.0% 40 -46 42 46% 29 53 1.9 35 25 185 1 71% 7.4 6.2 -5.5% 30 15 34
2020 CHI 15/14 759 247 1070 8 4.3 1 -3.4% 30 57 30 47% 36 70 2.8 68 54 438 2 79% 8.1 7.3 14.1% 15 113 6
2021 CHI 13/13 642 225 849 7 3.8 1 -10.2% 43 -16 43 48% 35 39 2.4 51 42 301 0 82% 7.2 6.5 6.3% 20 54 19
2022 CHI 255 973 9 3.8 3 -6.3% 55 44 311 1 80% 7.1 -6.6%

Montgomery has struggled to earn a good success rate at any point in his career, but that’s more of a team problem. Over the past
three seasons, the Bears have yet to rank higher than 23rd in adjusted line yards. They have also been 29th and 30th in stuff rate
over the past two seasons, hardly giving Montgomery any room to breathe. Montgomery runs with good vision and patience, but
he rarely gets to show it. Most of his best work is done when breaking off tacklers at the second level and earning extra yardage in
that range, which he has done consistently since entering the league thanks to his size, balance, and short-area burst.
Where Montgomery shines without question is on third down. In each of the past two seasons, third and fourth down has
been Montgomery’s most successful split. In total, he has been successful on 56% of his 48 third-/fourth-down carries over that
span. Montgomery is also a better receiver out of the backfield than most big backs, in large part because he has the burst to
immediately threaten a tackler’s angle, even if he doesn’t have the long speed to break away from everyone.

Zack Moss Height: 5-9 Weight: 222 College: Utah Draft: 2020/3 (86) Born: 15-Dec-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 BUF 13/0 403 112 481 4 4.3 0 -4.1% 32 23 32 53% 18 23 2.8 18 14 95 1 78% 6.8 6.2 13.4% -- 29 --
2021 BUF 13/0 380 96 345 4 3.6 2 -1.1% -- 30 -- 51% -- 24 2.1 32 23 197 1 72% 8.6 8.7 -8.8% 34 9 36
2022 BUF 14 54 1 3.9 0 3.4% 6 4 31 0 67% 7.8 -14.6%

It’s a bit of a mystery why Moss fell out of favor and was made a healthy inactive in three of the final seven Bills games
last season. The consistently concise Sean McDermott told reporters that Matt Breida had earned more touches, but then gave
him just nine in Week 12 before a return to the bench. And while Moss dropped from 4.3 to 3.6 yards per attempt in 2021, that
decline followed an increase in the situational difficulty of his carries. Moss’ rushing DVOA actually increased slightly from
-4.1% to -1.1%. Bills general manager Brandon Beane explained to Bally Sports reporter Michael Silver that Moss was coming
off ankle surgery after 2020 and couldn’t cut off his left side as well in 2021, but it’s difficult to find statistical evidence of that.
Moss produced the same 1.5 yards before contact per attempt in 2021 and increased his rushing broken tackle rate from 13.4%
in 2020 to 15.6% in 2021. And Moss enjoyed a better rushing DVOA on runs to the left (14.8%) and right (2.1%) than he did
up the middle (-31.0%).
All told, Moss seems better than his disappearing workload suggests. He may just need a new team to show it after the Bills
spent a second-round draft pick on James Cook to pair with incumbent starter Devin Singletary.

Raheem Mostert Height: 5-10 Weight: 197 College: Purdue Draft: 2015/FA Born: 9-Apr-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SF 16/0 370 137 772 8 5.6 1 26.8% 1 191 7 53% 9 30 2.9 22 14 180 2 64% 12.9 11.1 39.3% -- 62 --
2020 SF 8/8 237 104 521 2 5.0 1 4.0% 20 57 29 49% 30 13 2.5 19 16 156 1 84% 9.8 8.5 21.1% -- 35 --
2021 SF 1/1 4 2 20 0 10.0 0 135.1% -- 10 -- 100% -- 0 2.0 0 0 0 0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- --
2022 MIA 127 612 4 4.8 1 8.9% 15 13 89 0 87% 6.8 -11.5%

Mostert has ended four of his last five seasons on injured reserve with myriad knee, calf, and ankle injuries, plus a broken
forearm. It is somewhat surprising that he earned another chance already in his thirties after a journeyman start to his career as
primarily a kick returner. But Mostert knows new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s outside zone running scheme from
their time together in San Francisco. And a former track star at Purdue, Mostert has the most important quality for success in
a system that runs its backs horizontally: exceptional speed. According to Next Gen Stats, Mostert had the two fastest plays in
the NFL in his last healthy season in 2020, an 80-yard rushing touchdown and a 76-yard receiving touchdown that topped out
at 23.1 and 22.7 mph, respectively. And despite his many injuries, Mostert has never performed poorly on the field. Since he
saw his first extended chances in the backfield in 2018, Mostert leads backs with 200 or more carries with both his 5.7 yards
per attempt and 3.5 yards before contact per attempt. And Mostert contributed positive rushing DVOAs in all four of those
seasons—albeit on just two carries prior to injury last year—and led the league in rushing DVOA in 2019.
316 RUNNING BACKS

Latavius Murray Height: 6-3 Weight: 230 College: Central Florida Draft: 2013/6 (181) Born: 21-Feb-1991 Age: 31 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NO 16/8 442 146 637 5 4.4 0 10.7% 9 125 13 60% 2 34 2.5 43 34 235 1 79% 6.9 8.4 -5.6% 31 19 32
2020 NO 15/7 364 146 656 4 4.5 1 12.3% 15 131 13 62% 3 17 2.3 26 23 176 1 88% 7.7 8.6 21.6% 10 48 19
2021 BAL 14/6 378 119 501 6 4.2 0 7.3% 18 91 21 58% 9 9 2.6 13 10 75 0 77% 7.5 7.1 -5.0% -- 6 --

Like fellow vet Devonta Freeman, Murray stepped out of the “Break Glass In Case of Injury Emergency” case and put in
solid enough work given his mileage. Murray’s statline benefits mightily from the 150 yards on just 16 carries he put on the
Steelers in the regular-season finale. If this is the end of the line for Murray, that last game thrust him into 114th place on the
all-time rushing chart, with 5,492 career yards, two ahead of the considerably more lauded Reggie Bush. On the other hand,
though his career trajectory is in a rapidly decaying orbit, Latavius was just reliable enough as an innings-eater with the Ravens
that if Baltimore or any other team finds itself down multiple backs at some point, Murray will be there, waiting for the sound
of shattered glass, his sights set on Joe Morris up there in 113th place.

Dare Ogunbowale Height: 5-10 Weight: 205 College: Wisconsin Draft: 2017/FA Born: 4-May-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 TB 16/0 367 11 17 2 1.5 1 -50.4% -- -28 -- 36% -- 8 1.4 46 35 286 0 76% 8.2 5.9 -2.9% 27 31 26
2020 JAX 14/2 185 32 145 0 4.5 0 17.8% -- 33 -- 38% -- 8 3.2 20 10 54 0 50% 5.4 6.3 -50.3% -- -36 --
2021 JAX 17/2 189 43 137 1 3.2 0 -23.4% -- -27 -- 40% -- 0 1.8 21 13 114 1 62% 8.8 7.7 -22.3% -- -10 --
2022 HOU 6 23 0 3.8 0 13.2% 0 0 0 0 0% 0.0 0.0%

Ogunbowale originally signed with the Texans as a 2017 undrafted free agent but failed to make the roster and has since
been in Washington, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville. Over the past two seasons with the Jaguars, he has been a change of pace
back—though that pace hasn’t been great. He has had trouble compensating for a lack of straight-line speed (91.1 Speed Score)
without much shiftiness or tackle-breaking ability. Along with Tony Jones Jr. of the Saints, Ogunbowale was one of two running
backs with at least 30 carries to not force a missed tackle on a carry in 2021.

Cordarrelle Patterson Height: 6-2 Weight: 220 College: Tennessee Draft: 2013/1 (29) Born: 17-Mar-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 CHI 16/4 203 17 103 0 6.1 0 -7.5% 17 32 9 0% -- 8 1.3 17 11 83 0 65% 7.5 6.5 -35.1% -- -32 --
2020 CHI 16/3 201 64 232 1 3.6 0 -20.6% 18 67 4 0% -- 13 2.1 25 21 132 0 84% 6.3 5.4 -33.2% -- -39 --
2021 ATL 16/13 473 153 618 6 4.0 1 -4.7% 34 25 36 45% 40 21 2.4 69 52 548 5 75% 10.5 7.4 31.7% 8 188 1
2022 ATL 154 607 6 3.9 2 -3.3% 40 25 277 2 63% 11.1 -15.7%

In last year’s Almanac, Patterson was listed in the wide receivers section, with his running production an afterthought.
Changing positions has granted Patterson new life, as he has significantly increased his value by going from a wideout with
home-run potential to arguably the best receiving back in the league. Patterson was still used quite frequently as an actual wide
receiver—both his 26 targets split wide and 21 targets out of the slot led all running backs, and he ran plenty of short curls and
quick slants and other receiver-type routes. Patterson actually had a higher receiving DVOA when targeted out of the backfield,
however, 43.3% to 27.0%. That generally gave him matchups against linebackers and safeties rather than corners, and Patterson
is too good of a receiver to be handled like that. He does need a complimentary player to handle work between the trenches,
however. Patterson’s rush DVOA was just -13.2% on runs marked up the middle or to either guard, opposed to 5.4% on runs
off tackle or end.

Jaret Patterson Height: 5-8 Weight: 195 College: Buffalo Draft: 2021/FA Born: 23-Dec-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 WAS 17/1 151 68 266 2 3.9 1 0.5% -- 25 -- 49% -- 9 2.1 11 10 73 0 91% 7.3 7.5 34.1% -- 31 --
2022 WAS 10 38 0 3.8 0 4.8% 3 2 15 0 67% 7.5 -7.5%
 RUNNING BACKS 317

The two highest-carry games of the year for Patterson were pretty circumstance-heavy: He garnered 11 carries against the
Broncos in Week 8 with the Football Team nursing a tie score in the second half, in a game where Antonio Gibson was hav-
ing a shin injury managed ahead of the Week 9 bye. Patterson also led the backfield in touches in Week 17’s loss to the Eagles
sponsored by COVID-19, as neither Gibson (COVID) nor J.D. McKissic (concussion) played. Patterson had just six carries on
third or fourth down and it is pretty apparent that Brian Robinson was drafted to fill his role. He’ll need injuries ahead of him
or a change of scenery to be a 2022 factor.

Rashaad Penny Height: 5-11 Weight: 220 College: San Diego State Draft: 2018/1 (27) Born: 2-Feb-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SEA 10/0 152 65 370 3 5.7 1 32.4% -- 115 -- 57% -- 8 2.6 11 8 83 1 73% 10.4 11.4 45.4% -- 37 --
2020 SEA 3/0 38 11 34 0 3.1 0 2.5% -- 5 -- 55% -- 1 2.1 0 0 0 0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- --
2021 SEA 10/6 253 119 749 6 6.3 0 27.3% 2 174 6 47% 38 27 3.7 8 6 48 0 75% 8.0 10.3 -24.0% -- -4 --
2022 SEA 165 758 5 4.6 1 4.3% 27 22 146 1 81% 6.6 -12.1%

It took three-and-a-half years, but Penny finally looked worthy of his first-round draft status in the latter stages of 2021. He
started each of Seattle’s last five games, and in that stretch he led all NFL players with 671 rushing yards (nobody else had even
500) and 200 DYAR. His league-leading 6.3-yard average gain was the best for a running back with at least 100 carries since
Jamaal Charles in 2010. The Seahawks had turned down his fifth-year option coming into the season, but they re-signed him in
March to a one-year, $5.8-million deal. Penny then missed time in minicamp with a bad hamstring, which has been the story of
his career so far; he has missed 28 of a possible 65 games in his first four seasons. A healthy Penny is a top-tier weapon. Among
active running backs with at least 200 carries, only Raheem Mostert, another oft-injured speedster, has averaged more yards
per run. Unfortunately, sightings of a healthy Penny are only slightly more common than sightings of Sasquatch these days.

Samaje Perine Height: 5-11 Weight: 240 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2017/4 (114) Born: 16-Sep-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 2TM 7/0 11 5 16 0 3.2 0 -9.2% -- 0 -- 40% -- 0 2.2 0 0 0 0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- --
2020 CIN 16/1 207 63 301 3 4.8 0 4.4% -- 35 -- 43% -- 12 2.9 12 11 66 0 92% 6.0 8.1 11.8% -- 17 --
2021 CIN 16/0 276 55 246 1 4.5 0 -7.8% -- 2 -- 45% -- 10 3.2 31 27 196 1 87% 7.3 7.3 4.1% 21 27 29
2022 CIN 37 150 1 4.1 0 -1.3% 21 19 135 1 90% 7.1 10.2%

Trivia time—who holds the single-game FBS rushing record? If this was Melvin Gordon’s comment, you might guess him,
but no. Gordon set the record in November of 2014, but Perine broke it just one week later with a 427-yard outburst against
Kansas as a freshman in an Oklahoma rainstorm. Perine barely scraped up half that rushing yardage in a full season in Cin-
cinnati last year. Still, he earned the trust of Bengals coaches as a third-down receiver and pass protector and responded with
some important plays, none more than the screen pass he took to the house in the AFC Championship Game. Perine remains a
journeyman with limited (pro) rushing ability (see the Super Bowl for details) and second-year back Chris Evans is poised to
vulture a large share of his workload. Perine will always have that Saturday afternoon in Norman, however.

Adrian Peterson Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2007/1 (7) Born: 21-Mar-1985 Age: 37 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 WAS 15/15 407 211 898 5 4.3 3 -4.1% 27 39 24 47% 27 45 2.5 23 17 142 0 74% 8.4 9.5 -14.9% -- -1 --
2020 DET 16/10 316 156 604 7 3.9 0 0.9% 24 64 25 46% 40 18 2.4 18 12 101 0 67% 8.4 8.6 9.0% -- 22 --
2021 2TM 4/3 72 38 98 2 2.6 1 -21.6% -- -23 -- 42% -- 3 1.4 4 4 8 0 100% 2.0 4.8 -67.0% -- -16 --

The Titans signed Peterson off the street when Derrick Henry went down with an injury, but he looked like burned toast
in Tennessee, gaining only 82 yards on 27 carries and lasting just three games before being released. The Seahawks signed
Peterson shortly thereafter, but he looked like the unrecognizable charred ashes of what may have once been flaming bread in
Seattle, running 11 times for only 16 yards against San Francisco before a back injury euthanized his season. Peterson has said
he wants to play again in 2022 but given his struggles both on the field and off (he was arrested for domestic violence following
an argument with his wife on an airplane, but reportedly will not face felony charges), it’s hard to imagine why anyone would
give him a chance.
318 RUNNING BACKS

Dameon Pierce Height: 5-10 Weight: 212 College: Florida Draft: 2022/4 (107) Born: 19-Feb-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 HOU 111 457 3 4.1 1 -2.4% 21 16 118 0 76% 7.4 -18.5%

Pierce is a quicker than fast running back, highlighted by his 86th percentile 10-yard split compared to his 40th percentile
full 40-yard dash and his below-average 98.2 Speed Score. That lower body explosion can help create broken tackles, where
he was fourth in the 2022 draft class in broken tackles per 100 carries, but the lack of long speed caps the high-end production
that could be created by making defenders miss or bounce off him. That power was great near the goal line, where he scored
on 11 of his 16 carries inside the 10 and all six of his carries inside the 2-yard line in 2021. His power also translates into pass
blocking, where he could make an immediate impact as a rookie on third downs.

Tony Pollard Height: 6-0 Weight: 210 College: Memphis Draft: 2019/4 (128) Born: 30-Apr-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 DAL 15/0 204 86 455 2 5.3 1 11.6% -- 71 -- 52% -- 26 4.0 20 15 107 1 75% 7.1 9.0 -2.7% -- 12 --
2020 DAL 16/2 363 101 435 4 4.3 0 13.0% 13 91 18 47% 37 27 3.0 40 28 193 1 70% 6.9 8.3 -8.3% 35 12 35
2021 DAL 15/0 374 130 719 2 5.5 2 17.9% 4 145 9 55% 14 24 3.1 46 39 337 0 85% 8.6 8.7 10.4% 18 63 17
2022 DAL 160 762 4 4.8 1 6.1% 44 33 250 1 75% 7.6 -11.6%

Despite starting just two games in three seasons, Pollard might be one of the most famous backs in the NFL because the
Cowboys are unavoidable and he looks much faster than Ezekiel Elliott—particularly last year as Elliott dealt with a PCL tear.
Pollard enters the final year of his rookie contract as one of the more impressive pure backup runners of his time, someone who
returns kicks well but isn’t a pure scatback at 210 pounds. That’s a build and skill set that is broadly similar to one of the better
backups of the early 2000s: Chester Taylor. Taylor signed with the Vikings after playing his rookie contract behind Jamal Lewis
and immediately became a 1,200-yard rusher before ceding workload. There has been zero progress on a contract extension for
Pollard even though the Cowboys have almost nothing established behind him on the depth chart. He could be a fascinating
free agent, and so, yes, he’ll probably be on the bench or a shrug-flex at best in your dynasty league as you hope he finds a good
landing spot before he winds up with the Texans or something.

Craig Reynolds Height: 5-11 Weight: 215 College: Kutztown Draft: 2019/FA Born: 15-Jun-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 JAX 2/0 3 1 4 0 4.0 0 64.3% -- 3 -- 0% -- 0 2.0 1 1 3 0 100% 3.0 2.0 -69.7% -- -3 --
2021 DET 5/2 118 55 230 0 4.2 0 -16.6% -- -19 -- 44% -- 14 3.4 8 7 52 0 88% 7.4 7.9 -3.4% -- 5 --
2022 DET 38 155 1 4.1 0 0.0% 7 6 42 0 86% 7.0 -17.1%

Reynolds spent one year apiece in Washington and Jacksonville before finally finding a role in Detroit’s backfield late last
season. Though he was just the No. 3 back, both Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift missed time, giving way to Reynolds.
Reynolds has a thick frame and a tough rushing style, but he runs more like a runaway train than a controlled ball of power. For
example, Reynolds had a success rate of just 42% on first- and second-down runs last year, which tracks with his questionable
vision as a runner. However, Reynolds also broke 14 tackles, an unholy amount given his low volume of touches. Still, Reyn-
olds is just a big body to take carries off the bench or in a pinch until either his vision or pass-catching chops (or both) improve.
It should not even be a certainty that Reynolds keeps the No. 3 position over Jermar Jefferson, if Jefferson can remain healthy.

Brian Robinson Height: 6-1 Weight: 225 College: Alabama Draft: 2022/3 (98) Born: 22-Mar-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 WAS 58 240 2 4.1 1 -1.3% 15 12 84 0 80% 7.0 -25.5%

Robinson got almost no run at Alabama until his final season, but blew up in a big way with nearly half of his career rushing
total (1,343 yards) and over half of his career receptions (35) in 2021. He’s an interesting stylistic addition to the Washington
backfield, as his 225-pound frame marks him as a bigger between-the-tackles back than Antonio Gibson. He may eventually
develop into something like the AJ Dillon to Gibson’s Aaron Jones, and at age 23 he’s an older rookie who should be ready to
 RUNNING BACKS 319

take that kind of role this year. The DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart Panthers were part of Ron Rivera’s first season as
a professional head coach, and with J.D. McKissic on the roster as the main pass-catching back, there could be a full-blown
committee this year. If the Commanders are as bad as our projections fear, Robinson probably won’t get as much as the other
two portions of it.

James Robinson Height: 5-10 Weight: 220 College: Illinois State Draft: 2020/FA Born: 9-Aug-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 JAX 14/14 641 240 1070 7 4.5 2 -0.8% 26 76 22 49% 28 55 2.8 60 49 344 3 82% 7.0 7.8 1.2% 25 50 18
2021 JAX 14/13 530 164 767 8 4.7 4 15.4% 6 170 7 49% 33 25 2.5 46 31 222 0 67% 7.2 7.4 -44.2% 56 -78 57
2022 JAX 155 677 5 4.4 2 0.9% 35 24 172 1 69% 7.2 -32.3%

Robinson was slowed by heel and knee injuries in the second half of last season, and Jaguars coaches planned to put him on
a “load management plan” when December arrived. For Urban Meyer, “load management” meant three carries in the final two
minutes of a 37-7 loss to the Rams after a week in which Robinson could barely practice. Meyer blamed running backs coach
Bernie Parmalee for the decision, because Meyer is pond scum. Anyway, a still-hobbling Robinson tore his Achilles a few
weeks later against the Jets, and he won’t be available for the start of training camp. He’s still in the team’s plans, however, and
should be effective while rotating with Travis Etienne now that the team is no longer coached by an evil ferret.

Miles Sanders Height: 5-11 Weight: 211 College: Penn State Draft: 2019/2 (53) Born: 1-May-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 PHI 16/11 626 179 818 3 4.6 2 -6.6% 30 14 30 45% 34 36 2.8 63 50 509 3 79% 10.2 8.3 20.0% 12 121 7
2020 PHI 12/11 602 164 867 6 5.3 4 7.0% 19 110 15 55% 13 32 2.8 52 28 197 0 54% 7.0 7.5 -33.5% 46 -59 46
2021 PHI 12/12 426 137 754 0 5.5 1 14.2% 7 138 12 59% 5 21 2.5 34 26 158 0 76% 6.1 8.7 -24.1% 51 -19 51
2022 PHI 200 983 6 4.9 3 8.8% 30 23 158 1 77% 6.9 -19.3%

The list of running backs since the 1970 merger who have averaged 5.0 rushing yards on at least 400 carries is a short one.
There are nine names on it. Bo Jackson is on there. So is Jamaal Charles. Barry Sanders, too... and Miles Sanders. Though
hobbled by an ankle injury, Sanders had his best season yet as a rusher despite failing to reach the end zone. Not since Marcel
Shipp in 2003 has a running back rushed for 750 yards and not scored. So it probably won’t happen to Sanders again. (No one
tell him about Joe Washington.)

Boston Scott Height: 5-6 Weight: 203 College: Louisiana Tech Draft: 2018/6 (201) Born: 27-Apr-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 PHI 11/2 187 61 245 5 4.0 2 22.2% -- 85 -- 52% -- 17 1.9 26 24 204 0 92% 8.5 11.4 29.0% 7 67 17
2020 PHI 16/4 383 80 374 1 4.7 1 1.4% -- 32 -- 49% -- 14 2.7 36 25 212 1 69% 8.5 7.2 8.1% 19 40 23
2021 PHI 16/4 219 87 373 7 4.3 1 12.9% -- 84 -- 57% -- 9 2.1 16 13 83 0 81% 6.4 7.4 -27.9% -- -12 --
2022 PHI 123 541 5 4.4 1 5.5% 9 8 51 0 89% 6.4 -9.8%

Scott didn’t get a carry until Week 7, when Miles Sanders was carted off the field after suffering an ankle injury. Scott then
reached double-digit carries in each of the Eagles’ next three games and averaged 5.5 yards per run, earning him a spot on the
team’s running back committee even after Sanders’ return in Week 11. He’s thought of as more of a change-of-pace back than a
goal-line back, but the Eagles leaned on him more than anyone not named Jalen Hurts inside the 5. He made the most of those
chances, scoring seven touchdowns on 12 carries.

Trey Sermon Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Ohio State Draft: 2021/3 (88) Born: 30-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 SF 9/2 107 41 167 1 4.1 0 -2.8% -- 11 -- 56% -- 6 2.3 4 3 26 0 75% 8.7 6.0 -25.9% -- -3 --
2022 SF 20 78 1 3.9 0 1.5% 6 4 31 0 67% 7.8 -18.5%
320 RUNNING BACKS

Sermon was a popular pick in the fantasy space heading into his rookie season given that he was stepping into a healthy
environment for a running back and competing primarily with Raheem Mostert, a back with a lengthy injury history. However,
when Mostert suffered a knee injury that ended his season in Week 1, Sermon was not positioned to assume his role because
he had been made inactive prior to the game. Sermon spent most of the season firmly in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse
and watched as fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell snatched the starting running back job instead. Sermon only exceeded one-third
of the team’s offensive snaps in three games over the course of the year and was almost exclusively a special-teamer from Week
5 onward. Shanahan mostly explained his reasoning for Sermon’s role via coachspeak while justifiably talking up the play of
Mitchell, who looked like a solid starter for most of the season when healthy. It should also be noted that a Week 12 ankle injury
for Sermon kept him out of action when Mitchell was hurt, opening the door for “wide back” Deebo Samuel to leave his mark
in the running game.

Devin Singletary Height: 5-7 Weight: 203 College: Florida Atlantic Draft: 2019/3 (74) Born: 3-Sep-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 BUF 12/8 540 151 775 2 5.1 4 3.7% 13 75 20 50% 21 42 2.4 41 29 194 2 71% 6.7 6.7 -35.2% 47 -47 48
2020 BUF 16/16 621 156 687 2 4.4 1 -11.5% 37 -20 38 49% 31 45 2.9 50 38 269 0 76% 7.1 7.1 -2.2% 29 32 27
2021 BUF 17/16 718 188 870 7 4.6 5 5.6% 20 113 16 50% 31 52 2.5 50 40 228 1 80% 5.7 6.1 -31.1% 54 -47 54
2022 BUF 202 877 7 4.3 2 1.8% 38 29 201 1 76% 6.9 -12.6%

Singletary has faced constant threats to his job as the lead Bills back in his three-year career, from the Day 2 backs the Bills
drafted in 2020 and 2022, Zack Moss and James Cook, to the Day 1 backs writers the Internet over have mocked to the Bills
the last few seasons. But Singletary has always played better than his traditional statistics and even his rushing DVOAs sug-
gest. In particular, Singletary has excelled as a tackle-breaker. His 23.5% broken tackle rate on both his carries and catches is
the highest among backs with 200 or more touches the last two seasons. That elusiveness is critical in the Bills’ spread offense,
which deploys fewer tight ends as extra blockers and behind an offensive line that has been worse in run blocking than pass
protection in recent seasons. The team’s 69% run block win rates ranked 29th and 23rd the last two years. Even next to a new
second-round draft pick, Singletary seems more secure in an early-down role in 2022 than he was before. Not only did they
double his workload from 11.1 to 21.0 touches per game and enjoy continued efficiency over the final four games of 2021, but
the Bills also made a point to target receiving backs this offseason, first in failed signee J.D. McKissic and then in their draft
pick Cook. Expect more a more situational committee between Singletary and Cook than the former back had with his previous
partner Zack Moss.

Benny Snell Height: 5-10 Weight: 224 College: Kentucky Draft: 2019/4 (122) Born: 27-Feb-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 PIT 13/2 171 108 426 2 3.9 1 -11.7% 39 -14 38 49% 24 17 2.9 4 3 23 0 75% 7.7 7.3 -13.2% -- 0 --
2020 PIT 16/3 281 111 368 4 3.3 2 -26.3% 46 -96 46 44% 43 18 2.1 14 10 61 0 71% 6.1 8.8 -26.5% -- -11 --
2021 PIT 17/0 110 36 98 0 2.7 0 -37.8% -- -37 -- 33% -- 6 2.3 4 2 13 0 50% 6.5 10.0 -59.3% -- -10 --
2022 PIT 37 126 1 3.4 0 -8.0% 5 3 28 0 60% 9.3 -23.4%

Yes, Snell was the primary Steelers backup. Yes, he still had only 36 carries. The team gave only 104 carries to non-Najee
Harris players last year; 20 of those belonged to Ben Roethlisberger and another 27 belonged to wideouts and tight ends. More-
over, 12 of Snell’s carries came in Week 18 after Harris suffered an elbow injury. The Steelers have done nothing to settle this
depth chart any further, but it would be surprising if Snell were on the team beyond this, the final year of his rookie deal.

Isaiah Spiller Height: 6-1 Weight: 225 College: Texas A&M Draft: 2022/4 (123) Born: 9-Aug-2001 Age: 21 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 LAC 109 452 3 4.1 1 -1.0% 26 22 165 1 85% 7.5 7.7%

Spiller is a swivel-hipped start-stop rusher who gained over 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons for Texas A&M,
adding 74 receptions over three seasons. If the Chargers were looking for a short-yardage bruiser, Spiller was the wrong choice:
he’s nifty in the open field but tap-dances too much behind the line of scrimmage. Spiller could develop into a larger version of
Austin Ekeler, however, which would allow Brandon Staley and Joe Lombardi to deploy their backs almost interchangeably.
 RUNNING BACKS 321

The Chargers have been looking for a multidimensional change-up back since Ekeler graduated from multidimensional change-
up back to featured back. Spiller is a better prospect than the Josh Kelley and Larry Rountree types who earned past auditions.

Rhamondre Stevenson Height: 6-0 Weight: 229 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2021/4 (120) Born: 23-Feb-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 NE 12/2 265 133 606 5 4.6 2 8.8% 16 97 19 59% 3 33 3.1 18 14 123 0 78% 8.8 10.4 -9.2% -- 5 --
2022 NE 174 742 6 4.3 1 0.8% 15 13 104 0 87% 8.0 -1.8%

Stevenson’s solid rookie campaign looks even more impressive when you remember he had one rushing attempt for 2 yards
through four weeks. A Week 1 fumble put Stevenson in Bill Belichick’s doghouse, but he became a coveted member of New
England’s rushing attack once he was unleashed. The Patriots rarely give rookie running backs consistent reps in their first year.
Just ask Damien Harris, who had only four carries in 2019. So it is impressive that Stevenson earned Belichick’s trust enough
to see that kind of impact in his first season. Stevenson joins Sony Michel and J.R. Redmond as the only rookie running backs
under Belichick to receive multiple 20-carry games.
The former Sooners star is a bruising runner, finishing third in success rate and eighth in yards after contact. He acts as an
excellent complement to Harris’ speed and agility. While we still project Harris to be the top back in New England, it could very
easily end up a true split backfield by season’s end.

D'Andre Swift Height: 5-9 Weight: 215 College: Georgia Draft: 2020/2 (35) Born: 14-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 DET 13/4 398 114 521 8 4.6 3 13.0% 14 106 16 54% 16 26 2.1 57 46 357 2 81% 7.8 7.6 17.1% 13 94 9
2021 DET 13/4 560 151 617 5 4.1 2 -21.6% 50 -77 48 36% 50 41 1.7 79 62 452 2 79% 7.3 8.0 -6.4% 31 32 24
2022 DET 184 743 6 4.0 2 -3.2% 69 55 415 2 80% 7.5 -3.1%

Nagging groin and shoulder injuries sapped Swift of his effectiveness last season. Swift’s consistency as a runner was non-
existent, and it wasn’t just an offensive line problem. Swift’s 36% success rate wasn’t just the worst in the NFL, but it made
him the only qualifying player below 40% in either of the past two seasons—a stark contrast to teammate Jamaal Williams’
solid 54% success rate. Some of that has to do with Swift being used more as a change-of-pace and outside runner, which can
be a more volatile role, but it’s hard to dispute that a fully healthy Swift would have found much more success than he did last
season. Swift was a good runner as a rookie, too. He never had the bulk to be a full-time guy, but he rocked success rates of
50% or better on first and second down as a rookie.
Swift also provided explosiveness in spurts. He ripped off three runs of 20-plus yards compared to Williams’ one, while Swift
also earned three 20-plus gains as a receiver to Williams’ zero. He is also still clearly the team’s favored pass-catcher and most
of his decline in those areas can be attributed to the offense’s unwillingness and inability to throw the ball down the field, allow-
ing defenders to constantly harass the checkdowns to Swift. Hopefully the additions of Jameson Williams and DJ Chark create
space for Swift down under, and a cleaner bill of health returns Swift to quality production as a runner.

Jonathan Taylor Height: 5-10 Weight: 226 College: Wisconsin Draft: 2020/2 (41) Born: 19-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 IND 15/13 511 232 1169 11 5.0 1 3.8% 21 127 14 52% 22 38 2.6 39 36 299 1 92% 8.3 10.1 22.2% 8 76 11
2021 IND 17/17 768 332 1811 18 5.5 4 25.3% 3 511 1 56% 13 66 3.3 51 40 360 2 78% 9.0 10.2 -6.5% 32 21 31
2022 IND 298 1495 13 5.0 4 13.0% 52 38 284 1 73% 7.5 -19.5%

He was helped along by a strong run-blocking offensive line, but we shouldn’t minimize the fantastic season that Jonathan
Taylor had as a runner in 2021. Taylor finished the year with the fourth-highest rushing DYAR ever measured, going all the way
back to 1981, and the highest of this century:
322 RUNNING BACKS

Most Single-Season Rushing DYAR, 1981-2021

Name Team Year DYAR DVOA Runs Yards TD Yd/Car Fum
Terrell Davis DEN 1998 602 26.5% 392 2008 21 5.12 1
Stephen Davis WAS 1999 526 32.4% 290 1407 17 4.85 3
Terrell Davis DEN 1997 526 24.3% 369 1743 15 4.72 4
Jonathan Taylor IND 2021 511 25.3% 332 1811 18 5.45 3
Emmitt Smith DAL 1995 505 21.5% 375 1770 25 4.72 7
Marshall Faulk STL 2000 501 36.6% 253 1359 18 5.37 0
Priest Holmes KC 2002 497 29.3% 313 1615 21 5.16 1
Larry Johnson KC 2005 488 24.1% 335 1741 20 5.20 5
Priest Holmes KC 2003 485 25.1% 320 1420 27 4.44 1
Emmitt Smith DAL 1994 461 19.4% 368 1484 21 4.03 1
LaDainian Tomlinson SD 2006 460 23.1% 347 1813 28 5.22 2
Adrian Peterson MIN 2012 458 24.9% 348 2097 12 6.03 3

Yes, there was a 17th game, but that didn’t really help Taylor considering how bad the Colts were that day; Taylor would have
ended the season with more DYAR if he had just never played against the Jaguars in Week 18.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Taylor’s 2021 season was how much success he had against loaded boxes. The Colts
faced the eighth-highest average box count in the league last year. Against eight or more in the box, the Colts (mostly Taylor)
ranked fourth with 4.6 yards per carry and tied for fifth with 5.7% DVOA. Taylor’s ability to feel for gaps in blocking schemes,
plus the breakaway speed to turn them into big plays, makes him one of the best backs in football. Now if only he could get
more involved in the passing game…

Ke'Shawn Vaughn Height: 5-10 Weight: 218 College: Vanderbilt Draft: 2020/3 (76) Born: 4-May-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2020 TB 10/0 99 26 109 0 4.2 1 -25.6% -- -17 -- 46% -- 3 3.2 10 5 34 1 50% 6.8 4.6 -61.9% -- -25 --
2021 TB 12/1 111 36 180 2 5.0 0 0.8% -- 16 -- 53% -- 10 3.8 8 4 26 0 50% 6.5 3.5 -22.7% -- -4 --
2022 TB 23 99 1 4.3 0 5.5% 5 4 26 0 80% 6.5 -8.2%

This offseason, the Buccaneers re-signed Leonard Fournette and Giovanni Bernard, then added Rachaad White in the third
round. This does not count as a vote of confidence in Vaughn, who received only 15 offensive snaps before injuries forced him
into the lineup over the last month of the season. Vaughn has spent most of his time in Tampa Bay in the doghouse for one
reason or another, but he was solid enough when the Bucs were forced to call on him in December. His biggest problem in
the battle for a role in the offense is his lack of receiving ability, with an eye-popping 36% drop rate to this point in his career.
Perhaps with Bruce Arians no longer on the sidelines, Vaughn can get a fresh start. More likely, Vaughn ends up buried on the
depth chart, if not outright released.

Kenneth Walker Height: 5-10 Weight: 210 College: Michigan State Draft: 2022/2 (41) Born: 20-Oct-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 SEA 138 568 4 4.1 1 -2.6% 26 20 143 1 77% 7.2 -12.3%

After two fair-to middlin’ seasons at Wake Forest, Walker transferred to Michigan State in 2021 and exploded, finishing first
in the Big Ten and second in the nation with 1,636 rushing yards and earning both the Doak Walker and Walter Camp awards
as college football’s top running back and most outstanding player. At the combine, he ran a 4.38s 40 at 211 pounds, giving
him a Speed Score of 114.7 that was third best in the class. That breakaway speed made him the second-ranked running back in
the FO 40, but the rest of his game looks ordinary at best. His 6.3 yards per carry in 2021 was the best of the 19 running backs
drafted this year, but his first-down rate of 51.3% was below average. He’s not the sort of back who will create yards on his
own. Instead, he’ll disappear behind a bad offensive line (*cough* Demon Deacons *cough*) but get the most out of a good
one (*cough* Spartans *cough*). The Seahawks have an offensive line that’s in flux. They also have Rashaad Penny, who will
go into training camp as RB1 and stay there until his next inevitable injury.
 RUNNING BACKS 323

James White Height: 5-10 Weight: 205 College: Wisconsin Draft: 2014/4 (130) Born: 3-Feb-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 NE 15/1 493 67 263 1 3.9 0 -9.0% -- -1 -- 42% -- 20 2.1 95 72 645 5 76% 9.0 7.4 14.8% 14 142 5
2020 NE 14/0 330 35 121 2 3.5 1 -26.4% -- -27 -- 37% -- 10 2.1 62 49 375 1 79% 7.7 8.4 6.0% 20 66 14
2021 NE 3/0 63 10 38 1 3.8 0 20.4% -- 15 -- 60% -- 0 1.5 14 12 94 0 86% 7.8 5.8 0.2% -- 11 --
2022 NE 27 109 1 4.0 1 0.6% 60 51 408 2 85% 8.0 10.8%

For a “running” back, James White has never done much running. He’s the only running back in the DVOA era to gain over
1,000 rushing yards despite having more receptions than carries. White has never hit the 100 carries needed to qualify for our
rushing leaderboard. However, White has finished top-20 in receiving DVOA among running backs in all but two of the seasons
he has played. After his usage took a pretty significant dip in 2020, White was off to a hot start with 13 targets in his first two
games in 2021. After suffering a dislocated hip in Week 3, White is set to start the season on the PUP list. Even if the Patriots
running back room is deep, there’s no replacing White’s receiving production out of the backfield at its peak.

Rachaad White Height: 6-2 Weight: 210 College: Arizona State Draft: 2022/3 (91) Born: 22-Apr-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 TB 96 399 3 4.2 1 -0.3% 17 14 94 1 82% 6.7 -11.4%

White had the highest BackCAST receiving index of any back in this year’s draft class. He had the second-most targets in the
Arizona State offense last season and averaged 2.59 yards per route run, tops among all draftable running backs. He accounted
for more than 30% of the Sun Devils’ yards from scrimmage in 2021. White is not a perfect prospect, mind you—he’s not a
polished pass protector yet, and he has a tendency to be slowed or stopped by first-level tacklers. But he’s the best back in the
class when he has the ball in space. It’s possible he just takes the third-down back role and runs with it—Tom Brady’s offenses
have nearly always had a James White or a Dion Lewis or a Kevin Faulk-type receiving back, and White could slide into that
role. Then again, how much does Brady want to rely on a rookie with questionable pass protection in what could be his final
season, when he could just keep a steady hand in Leonard Fournette next to him in the backfield? White’s ceiling is high, but
don’t pencil him in for 50 receptions just yet.

Zamir White Height: 6-0 Weight: 215 College: Georgia Draft: 2022/4 (122) Born: 18-Sep-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2022 LV 64 268 2 4.2 1 0.7% 17 13 103 0 76% 7.9 -14.7%

White gained more rushing yards than James Cook at Georgia (856 to 758) and came away with a better Speed Score (116.9
to 104.3) and BackCAST projection (13.3% to -45.7%). Cook was the more coveted prospect because White has two ACL tears
on his resume, while Cook is a better receiver and has a famous brother. White is much more of a threat to Josh Jacobs’ power-
back role than to Kenyan Drake’s nominal third-down role. A report from The Athletic’s Vic Tafur in June suggested that Josh
McDaniels already believes White is better than Jacobs or Drake. White is an important player to stash at the end of your bench
in fantasy this season, especially in a dynasty league.

Damien Williams Height: 5-11 Weight: 224 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2014/FA Born: 3-Apr-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 KC 11/6 368 111 498 5 4.5 1 -6.8% 31 8 31 50% 18 40 3.2 37 30 213 2 81% 7.1 7.7 -3.7% 28 24 28
2021 CHI 12/2 166 40 164 2 4.1 0 8.7% -- 30 -- 50% -- 12 2.6 23 16 103 1 70% 6.4 6.8 -35.1% -- -26 --
2022 ATL 110 444 4 4.0 1 -1.0% 24 20 140 1 83% 7.0 -4.5%

Williams is an interesting addition for the Falcons. He got lost in the shuffle some in Chicago with Khalil Herbert’s emer-
gence—something that could happen again in Atlanta if Tyler Allgeier breaks out as a rookie. But Williams has provided con-
sistent solid play whenever he has been given the opportunity. Williams has a career 11.4% broken tackle rate. He’s not Barry
Sanders or anything out there, but he’s a harder player to bring down than Mike Davis was. It’s not ideal if Williams is your
324 RUNNING BACKS

primary between-the-tackles runner; Atlanta would probably like Allgeier to take some of that role. But you could do far worse
than Williams as a 1B or 1C on a committee.

Darrel Williams Height: 5-11 Weight: 229 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2018/FA Born: 15-Apr-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 KC 12/0 199 41 141 3 3.4 1 -15.7% -- -15 -- 56% -- 7 1.3 19 15 167 1 79% 11.1 11.9 38.9% -- 57 --
2020 KC 16/0 280 39 169 1 4.3 0 2.7% -- 22 -- 59% -- 3 1.7 26 18 116 0 69% 6.4 8.7 -8.4% 36 8 37
2021 KC 17/7 568 144 558 6 3.9 0 5.1% 22 93 20 58% 8 22 1.8 57 47 452 2 82% 9.6 9.3 42.4% 4 179 2
2022 ARI 90 335 4 3.7 0 -3.0% 22 19 150 1 86% 7.9 6.4%

Williams served as Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s change-up back when CEH was healthy, with two extended tours as RB1 dur-
ing his injuries. Williams then suffered a late-season toe injury and Jerick McKinnon hopped off the bench and outplayed both
Williams and Edwards-Helaire considerably in the playoffs. The Chiefs wanted Williams back, but Williams chose to test free
agency, where he discovered a seller’s market for veteran replacement-level committee backs despite an exceptional charac-
ter/leadership reputation. Eventually, he latched on with the Cardinals, where we expect him to outplay Eno Benjamin as the
backup to James Conner.

Jamaal Williams Height: 6-0 Weight: 213 College: Brigham Young Draft: 2017/4 (134) Born: 3-Apr-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 GB 14/2 385 107 460 1 4.3 0 -1.5% 21 31 26 53% 7 25 2.5 45 39 253 5 87% 6.5 7.2 27.4% 8 103 9
2020 GB 14/3 419 119 505 2 4.2 0 2.8% 22 60 26 58% 6 18 2.6 35 31 236 1 89% 7.6 7.1 14.0% 16 58 15
2021 DET 13/11 317 153 601 3 3.9 1 -2.6% 33 40 34 54% 18 16 2.4 28 26 157 0 93% 6.0 6.0 11.5% 17 36 22
2022 DET 125 484 4 3.9 1 -4.2% 23 20 138 1 87% 6.9 -4.2%

Williams has become one of the most reliable runners in the NFL. He isn’t flashy or fast, but he is consistent in picking up
successful gains, primarily as a between-the-tackles runner. Williams’ 54% success rate last season is impressive considering
Detroit was only 21st in adjusted line yards and 27th in stuff rate, a sign that the line regularly let defenders through. Williams
also finished at 58% the year before with the Packers and 53% the year before that. Williams isn’t much of a tackle breaker, he’s
just good at falling forward and squeezing out a bonus yard when he does go down. He has neither the side-to-side burst nor
the extra gear to pick up many chunk gains, let alone threaten long touchdown runs. Williams is also a player whose passing-
down value is seen more as a blocker than as a receiver. He is a fine pass-catcher, to be clear, but he excels as a pass-protector.
Williams didn’t blow a single block last year and only blew three blocks in his final two seasons in Green Bay when he really
started to come into form as a player.

Javonte Williams Height: 5-10 Weight: 220 College: North Carolina Draft: 2021/2 (35) Born: 25-Apr-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 DEN 17/1 551 203 903 4 4.4 2 -8.3% 41 2 41 48% 36 50 3.3 53 43 316 3 81% 7.3 8.0 3.3% 22 44 20
2022 DEN 237 1003 8 4.2 2 0.5% 52 41 314 2 79% 7.7 -3.9%

Williams led all running backs who earned more than 150 carries with a broken tackle rate of 21.7%, per Sports Info Solu-
tions. He also ran to his designed gap a league-low 51.2% of the time, and his rate of getting stuffed of 20.2% was the sixth
worst in the league. So Williams was a talented and exciting rusher in his rookie season, but not a very reliable or efficient
rusher, which helps explain why sturdy Melvin Gordon earned so many carries. Williams should benefit substantially from bet-
ter quarterback play, a modernized offense, and a year of experience, in that order. Gordon will still leech some carries, but Wil-
liams has breakout superstar potential, and the Broncos offense may be so good that there are plenty of touches to go around.
 RUNNING BACKS 325

Ty'Son Williams Height: 6-0 Weight: 220 College: Brigham Young Draft: 2020/FA Born: 4-Sep-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2021 BAL 13/3 158 35 185 1 5.3 1 2.2% -- 15 -- 49% -- 7 1.5 12 9 84 0 75% 9.3 7.9 26.3% -- 24 --
2022 IND 17 78 0 4.6 0 9.4% 4 3 20 0 75% 6.7 -15.7%

Williams seemed to be the beneficiary of the Ravens injury tsunami when he started the opener and rushed for 65 yards on
nine carries, including a 35-yard sprint for a touchdown, then gained 77 yards on 13 totes in Week 2. But his playing time fell
off dramatically after that as the Ravens turned to veterans Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman, relegating the seemingly
friskier Williams to the pine—he had just more 13 carries the rest of the season. Ravens fans cried foul, but when asked about
Williams, Coach Jim Harbaugh responded thusly: “If you’re a running back, you need to run hard, break tackles, get yards, pass
protect, run the right route out of the backfield, catch the ball and get up [the] field. If you’re in the rotation, special teams sure
would help you.” Ouch. It was little surprise when the Ravens dumped Williams in May in favor of veteran Mike Davis. He’s
probably just a camp body for the Colts.

Jeffery Wilson Height: 6-0 Weight: 194 College: North Texas Draft: 2018/FA Born: 16-Nov-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Runs Yds TD Yd/R FUM DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Suc% Rk BTkl YafC Pass Rec Yds TD C% Yd/C YAC DVOA Rk DYAR Rk
2019 SF 10/0 60 27 105 4 3.9 0 20.3% -- 39 -- 52% -- 2 2.8 5 3 34 1 60% 11.3 7.0 8.9% -- 7 --
2020 SF 12/3 311 126 600 7 4.8 2 7.3% 18 86 21 53% 17 18 3.0 28 13 133 3 46% 10.2 8.5 8.9% 17 32 26
2021 SF 9/4 228 79 294 2 3.7 1 -9.9% -- -5 -- 56% -- 6 2.4 8 7 31 0 88% 4.4 6.1 -20.9% -- -3 --
2022 SF 4 16 0 4.0 0 22.7% 0 0 0 0 0% 0.0 0.0%

Wilson missed the first half of the 2021 season while recovering from a meniscus tear, and when he returned, he found a
backfield that had been taken over by impact rookie sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell. Wilson did end up starting four games
when Mitchell had to miss time in November and December, but it was clear that he had fallen behind Mitchell in the pecking
order. While Wilson has historically done a solid job for the 49ers when pressed into action, the team has invested third-round
picks at the running back position in consecutive years in Trey Sermon and Tyrion Davis-Price, both of whom seem capable
of hammering away at opposing defenses should they receive more playing time. Wilson has the coaching staff’s trust, which
should keep him on the roster, but the running back room is definitely getting crowded in the Bay Area. If Wilson ends up get-
ting cut, it would not be surprising if another team with a zone-heavy run offense picked him up given his solid 2020 season.

Going Deep
Ryquell Armstead, JAX: Armstead played for Temple before being drafted in the fifth round in 2019 by the Jaguars. He’s
scored two touchdowns in 18 career games and has run for 188 yards while tacking on 160 yards receiving. Armstead missed
all of 2020 after struggling through a long bout with COVID-19 and spent most of 2021 on practice squad in New Orleans and
Green Bay before re-joining the Jaguars for their last two games, rushing 15 times for 80 yards. With James Robinson possibly
starting the year on PUP, Armstead could see spot duty in 2022.

Tyler Badie, BAL: A small but tough sixth-round pick out of Missouri who was first-team All-SEC, Badie’s main pro asset
figures to be his hands, which he used to lead the Tigers with 54 receptions in 2021. Badie profiles as a third-down back who
can handle some extra workload should the Ravens backfield corps suffer another injury pandemic.

Kalen Ballage, FA: The beneficiary of Anthony McFarland’s injury last year, Ballage had a small role in the Pittsburgh offense
from Weeks 5 to 11 and was a willing special-teamer. Over the last three seasons he’s been on four different rosters and his
rushing DVOA and receiving DVOA have both been below -15% each year. He remains unsigned as we go to press.

Mike Boone, DEN: Boone has averaged 5.5 yards per rush over four seasons, has never fumbled, and went 41-232-3 in the
lone three-game stretch of his career (December of 2019 for the Vikings, when Dalvin Cook was hurt) when he received any
real playing time. In other words, he’s example No. 5632532 of why running backs are all but replaceable: Boone would prob-
ably be as effective as lots of backs who will earn dozens of touches and opportunities this year, but the Broncos will keep him
stashed behind Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in case of emergencies.
326 RUNNING BACKS

Gary Brightwell, NYG: The sixth-round rookie played just 12 snaps on offense last season and recorded two touches (a run
for 4 yards and a catch for 6) but was dependable on special teams. The Giants didn’t draft a running back, so it seems the No.
3 spot on the depth chart is Brightwell’s to lose. He’ll have to hold off former Bills practice-squadder Antonio Williams and
undrafted free agent Jashaun Corbin (1,031 yards from scrimmage for Florida State last season).

Brittain Brown, LV: A compact, well-built, none-too-fast Duke-to-UCLA transfer, this Las Vegas seventh-round pick was
Zach Charbonnet’s change-up back in Chip Kelly’s offense. Brown scored six touchdowns in 14 attempts inside the 10-yard
line for UCLA last season, and there were minicamp rumblings that he could earn a role as Josh McDaniels’ goal-line specialist.
We’ll believe it when we see it.

Malcolm Brown, FA: Brown signed a one-year deal with Miami last spring but missed the bulk of the 2021 season with a
quad injury. His continued free agency hints that Brown may lack a standout trait to motivate any team to prioritize signing
him. Ostensibly a power back at 5-foot-11 and 225 pounds, Brown ranks in the bottom fifth of regular backs with just 1.8 yards
after contact per attempt since 2018.

Ty Chandler, MIN: Chosen in the fifth round by the Vikings, Chandler is a former Tennessee transfer who spent his final sea-
son at North Carolina. His game is centered around speed, as evidenced by his 4.38s 40-yard dash and chops as a kick returner
(before Velus Jones transferred to Tennessee and took that job). Chandler is also a useful pass-catcher and could have earned
more work there if he didn’t play in such RPO-happy offenses at the end of his college career.

Corey Clement, FA: A beefy, 220-pound, between-the-tackles runner who can help on kick returns. Most of Clement’s run
with the Cowboys last year came in a meaningless Week 18 contest and a Week 14 game in which the Cowboys jumped out to
a 24-0 lead over Washington at halftime. Speaking of Washington, Clement’s only one Commanders stint away from a full tour
of the NFC East. He remains unsigned as we head to press.

Tarik Cohen, FA: A torn ACL forced Cohen to miss most of 2020 and all of 2021. At his best, Cohen was a springy and electric
ballcarrier in a bite-sized package, akin to Darren Sproles. Cohen never cracked 100 carries or a positive DVOA as a runner, but
as a pass-catcher, he ranked fourth in DYAR in 2018. Moreover, Cohen was a great punt returner, finishing ninth in return points
and earning an All-Pro bid in 2018. Unfortunately, Cohen suffered an Achilles injury while training this offseason, knocking
him out for all or most of the year.

Snoop Conner, JAX: Conner was often forgotten in a pass-heavy Ole Miss offense, but he scored 13 touchdowns to go along
with 647 rushing yards in his final year of college. Conner isn’t the most explosive back (4.59s 40-yard dash at 222 pounds),
but he is solidly built and can churn out tougher yards, which could be the reason the Jaguars selected him in the fifth round.

Trestan Ebner, CHI: Ebner is a sixth-round bet on speed, pass-catching, and special teams value. Though he contributed to
Baylor’s backfield for five seasons, he was never the lead runner, not even last season when he earned 148 carries. Moreover,
Ebner earned a negative EPA/attempt as a runner last year. Ebner caught at least 20 passes in each of the last five years, though,
and broke out as one of the nation’s top kick returners during his final two seasons, ripping off three touchdowns in the process.

Chris Evans, CIN: Evans showed considerable verve in limited opportunities as a rookie, including a strong performance
returning kicks when thrown into the role late in the season. He also caught 15 of 17 passes for 151 yards with 56.1% DVOA.
Evans was isolated in wheel route mismatches a handful of times and responded with a couple of touchdowns. He’s still a
greenhorn in pass protection and other subtle elements of the game, but he should be in line for an expanded role in the Bengals
attack. If you’re looking for a fantasy sleeper, you could do worse than take a shot on Evans.

Darrynton Evans, CHI: Evans missed 11 games as a rookie in 2020 with groin and hamstring issues, then opened last season
on IR with a hamstring issue before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Evans left Appalachian State two years ago with
enticing speed, explosiveness, and receiving tools, but it’s hard to know how much of that is still left at this point, or if he can
stay healthy in the future. Cut by Tennessee in March and claimed off waivers by the Bears.

Demetric Felton, CLE: In Felton’s second and third games of the season he scored a touchdown with 51 receiving yards
against the Texans, then returned seven punts for 103 yards on the Bears. All the explosion you would want to see is there for a
dynamic scatback, but the Browns already had Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D’Ernest Johnson ahead of Felton on the depth
chart. Then they drafted Jerome Ford in the fifth round. Felton could be popular if he doesn’t make this roster; it’s hard to see
his rookie year as anything but a success.
 RUNNING BACKS 327

Jerome Ford, CLE: While the 156th overall pick isn’t exactly a huge investment in a back, Ford developed into a serviceable
pass-catcher at Cincinnati (21 catches in his senior year against 10 in the three years before) and has some third-down skills to
offer with some nice vision and patience as well. This is the last year of Kareem Hunt’s contract and it appears unlikely he’ll
be back in 2023. Ford and D’Ernest Johnson could be in line for bigger roles at that point.

Wayne Gallman, FA: Gallman received a brief surge of fantasy relevance with the Falcons, rushing 15 times for 55 yards in
the 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Week 9. Despite Arthur Smith assuring everyone that Gallman only got work because of the
blowout, he was a moderately popular fantasy pickup for Week 11. He proceeded to have six carries the rest of the season and
was released in late December. Gallman was ninth in rushing DVOA in 2020 with a 147-682-6 performance for the Giants, so
he wouldn’t be the worst veteran to take a risk on, but as of publication he remains unsigned.

Kevin Harris, NE: Harris’ best stretch at South Carolina came during his sophomore season, when he became the first player
in Gamecocks history to lead the SEC in rushing yards per game. Harris needed back surgery following that season, and his
production dropped off in 2021. He fell to New England in the sixth round, and while the team may already be loaded at the
position, that doesn’t mean the Patriots don’t have a plan for Harris. A powerful runner with a 5-foot-10, 220-pound frame,
Harris could also hold his own in the passing game with 7.8 yards per reception on 35 catches in Columbia.

Justice Hill, BAL: Hill tore his Achilles in September, just when other injuries appeared to create an opportunity, a terrible in-
Justice. His younger brother Daxton was drafted in the first round by Cincinnati, so in the name of division and sibling rivalry
here’s hoping Hill makes it back to the Ravens and sweeps outside, directly at his bro—the resulting one-on-one would be
poetic, uh, Justice.

Kylin Hill, GB: Hill, a seventh-round rookie last year, did not do much as one of AJ Dillon’s many backup clones. He earned
just 10 carries in eight appearances before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Hill was also Green Bay’s leading kick re-
turner until his injury, but that was largely out of necessity, which showed itself in his -2.0 return points on 10 attempts. Hill
was an explosive and tough runner coming out of college, but it’s unclear whether he’ll get more chances to prove that in 2022.

Travis Homer, SEA: Homer had three unconventional but monstrous special teams plays in 2021: a touchdown return of an
onside kick against Jacksonville, a 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt against San Francisco, and a quasi-blocked punt
against Arizona when his pressure forced Andy Lee to scramble and fumble. In addition to his special teams workload, he led
all Seattle backs with 161 receiving yards in 2021 and has averaged 5.9 yards on his 64 career carries.

Zander Horvath, LAC: The Chargers used journeyman tight end Stephen Anderson as a fullback for four or five snaps per
game in 2021. Horvath, a seventh-round pick from Purdue, will get a chance to take over that role. Horvath rushed for 1,181
yards and eight touchdowns in his college career, with 68-592-1 as a receiver, so he could add a “FB Dive” threat to the Char-
gers offense in short-yardage situations. Heaven knows the Chargers offense needs all the threats it can muster in short-yardage
situations.

Godwin Igwebuike, DET: Igwebuike was one of many fringe NFLers to take advantage of the Lions’ rebuilding roster state.
He entered the league as a defensive back in 2018, but most of his game action in the next three years came in the XFL. Igwe-
buike’s crowning achievement last year was a 42-yard rushing touchdown against the Steelers that gave the Lions a brief lead.
It showed Igwebuike’s patience as a runner, as well as some herky-jerky movement to shed a couple of tackles, but it wasn’t
the fastest touchdown, and he remains a fringe NFLer.

Keaontay Ingram, ARI: Ingram was drafted in the sixth round of the 2022 draft after transfering from Texas to USC for his senior
season in search of more opportunity. (It’s hard to fault him when the Longhorns have Bijan Robinson on the roster.) He now enters
his rookie season with a chance to compete for the backup running back job with Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams. Should the
historically injury-prone James Conner go down at some point, Ingram could have a chance to see the field early.

Deon Jackson, IND: A second-year player from Duke, Jackson appeared in nine games last season for the Colts, rushing nine
times for only 31 yards (though he did score a garbage-time touchdown against the Texans). The Indianapolis depth chart is
stacked at running back, but with the way the Colts rotate backs in and out, Jackson’s skill set (4.32s 40-yard dash at his pro
day) could prove useful.
328 RUNNING BACKS

Jermar Jefferson, DET: Jefferson is an ideal No. 3 running back. As a rookie last season, Jefferson showed comfort as a zone
runner, as well as quickness and a surprising amount of balance for a smaller player. He did not make an impact as a pass-
catcher, in part because the team already has D’Andre Swift for that, but he has the skills to earn his keep as a pass-protector,
showing good eyes and some real chippiness to stifle blitzers. A healthy Jefferson could get 50 or so touches in 2022, though
staying healthy may be tough for a player of his stature.

Anthony McFarland, PIT: McFarland tore his MCL before the season, and even after he came back he was almost 100% a
spectator, active for just two games and four touches. Pittsburgh didn’t add any backs in the draft, but Najee Harris doesn’t
exactly need a third-down caddy. It’s hard to imagine McFarland getting a big role for the Steelers without an injury or two
ahead of him. Benny Snell seems to be the clear backup back here, and Pittsburgh’s UDFAs could push for McFarland’s roster
spot if his burst isn’t back.

Kene Nwangwu, MIN: A rookie last year, Nwangwu is a proven product already, just not at his “natural” position. Despite
missing the first six games of the season due to a hyperextended knee, Nwangwu was the only player in the league to return
two kicks for scores, thanks largely to his 4.23s 40 speed. That said, Nwangwu just isn’t a natural runner behind the line of
scrimmage right now, especially if tasked with anything beyond simple outside zone concepts. Nwangwu isn’t much of a pass-
catcher either, registering just seven receptions throughout his four-year college career and four as a rookie.

Qadree Ollison, ATL: Ollison’s spot as the Falcons’ backup rusher was taken by Cordarrelle Patterson coming out of training
camp, but Ollison got his time in the sun in Atlanta when injuries and COVID began rearing their heads. A 6.9% DVOA on
21 carries isn’t at all terrible, mostly on the back of a couple of 10-yard carries against New England and one more against the
Saints. That being said, it was mostly the sort of plodding that ensures he’ll be buried on the depth chart once again, if he even
makes the 53-man roster at all.

Isaih Pacheco, KC: South Jersey’s Pacheco led the 2022 draft running back class with a Speed Score of 118.5, thanks to a 40-
yard dash time of 4.37 seconds at 216 pounds. Pacheco also earned positive notice at the Shrine Game. During his four seasons
at Rutgers, Pacheco’s production waxed and waned based on whether the Scarlet Knights had a fighting chance or not, with
enough 20-107 lines against opponents like Michigan to offset many six-carry, single-digit-yard afternoons against Ohio State
or Penn State. Drafted in the seventh round by Kansas City.

La’Mical Perine, NYJ: Perine felt like the odd man out coming into 2021, and his usage proved it. Perine only dressed for four
games last season, seeing the ball in just two. Switching to a Shanahan scheme predicated on speed and agility never behooved
Perine’s more ground-and-pound skill set. Drafting Breece Hall into a running back room of Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, and
Tevin Coleman all but closes the book on Perine’s tenure with the Jets.

Jalen Richard, FA: A longtime Jon Gruden favorite, Richard landed on IR with a foot injury early last season and returned
to find both Gruden and his third-and-long role were gone. Richard is an utterly replacement-level veteran whose services as a
free agent won’t be in great demand.

Larry Rountree, LAC: Rountree got an early-season audition to become Austin Ekeler’s change-up but flunked it, rushing 11
times for just 31 yards in Week 5 against the Raiders and receiving only spot duty later in the season. He finished the year with
36 carries for 87 yards, or 2.4 yards per carry. The sixth-round 2021 draft pick from Mizzou is now battling Joshua Kelley for
the RB3 role behind Ekeler and Isaiah Spiller.

Mekhi Sargent, JAX: Sargent went undrafted out of Iowa last year. He originally signed with Tennessee, then played three
games for the Titans and three for the Rams before joining the Jaguars in Week 18. Between the three teams, he had five carries
for 11 yards. Sargent is small (5-foot-8) but solidly built (208 pounds), and could be useful in short-yardage situations.

Pierre Strong, NE: The versatility that this fourth-round pick brings to the New England Patriots must have Bill Belichick
salivating. Strong checks the leadership boxes, starting for four years at South Dakota State University. He boasts some lofty
combine numbers with a 4.37s 40-yard dash, 10-foot-4 broad jump, and 38-inch vertical. He was lauded for his receiving and
blocking abilities in college, making him a possible eventual replacement for veteran James White. On top of all that, Strong
was an elite passer for the Jackrabbits, finishing his collegiate career a perfect 7-for-7 through the air for 174 yards and four
touchdowns.
 RUNNING BACKS 329

J.J. Taylor, NE: Once touted as a “mini Dion Lewis,” Taylor has not done much for the Patriots. He provided some supplemen-
tal value as a kick returner as a rookie in 2020, but has mostly played a depth role, most prominently filling in for Rhamondre
Stevenson in Week 7. Taylor finished 2021 last among Patriots running backs in both DYAR (-25) and DVOA (-37.5%). With
New England drafting Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, Taylor will probably be the odd back out come roster cutdowns.

Patrick Taylor, GB: Formerly a backfield partner with Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard at Memphis, Taylor is a tank of a
running back who can moonlight a smidgen at fullback and H-back if need be. Taylor’s size and toughness also make him a via-
ble special-teamer, as he played about 20% of the Packers’ snaps on specials last season. Taylor is a smart and tough runner, but
he isn’t going to rip off many explosives, with a long of just 12 yards last season. (He finished at 23-89-1 with -11.0% DVOA).

Austin Walter, FA: A 2019 UDFA out of Rice, Walter had just one carry in his first two years in the NFL, then had 26 with the
Jets in 2021 (with -2.6% DVOA). He found the end zone for the first time in his career after being called up from the practice
squad to fill in for Michael Carter. Walter got the call again in Week 17, accounting for 14 of New York’s 26 carries. He didn’t
make enough of a lasting impression to return to a suddenly crowded Jets running back room, but Walter showed flashes as a
depth option for a team in need.

Avery Williams, ATL: The Saints are moving Williams from cornerback to running back to try to find ways of using his 4.41s
40 speed. Williams goes from being one of the league’s smallest secondary players to one of the smallest running backs, stand-
ing just 5-foot-9 and weighing less than 190 pounds. It doesn’t matter which meeting room he sits in; he’s a return specialist
first and foremost.

Jonathan Williams, WAS: Still somehow on the roster in Washington, Williams is a power-between-the-tackles back who
willingly plays special teams. With J.D. McKissic back and Brian Robinson drafted, Williams is well down the depth chart at
this point and may need an injury rash to make the roster. He has played for eight different teams since being drafted in 2016.

Kyren Williams, LAR: Williams ran for over 1,000 yards and more than a dozen touchdowns in each of his last two seasons
at Notre Dame, prompting Mike Tanier to call him a Day 2 back in the FO Fantasy 40. But a poor combine performance (4.65s
40 at less than 200 pounds) turfed Williams’ BackCAST Score (-55.4%) and left him available for the Rams in the fifth round.
Williams may prove to be a better receiver than runner; he had 77 catches for 672 yards and four scores in his last two years
in South Bend.

Trayveon Williams, CIN: Williams has only managed 41 carries in three seasons in stripes (-9.6% career DVOA despite 5.1
yards per carry), and after contributing as a special teamer as a rookie that workload has fallen drastically. If anyone emerges
in training camp, Williams’ job as backup to the backup to the backup is squarely on the line.
 Wide Receivers
I n the following two sections we provide the last three years
of statistics, as well as a 2022 KUBIAK projection, for ev-
ery wide receiver and tight end who either played a significant
touchdowns (TD) are the official NFL totals for each player.
End Zone Targets (EZ) count how often a player was targeted
while in the end zone.
role in 2021 or is expected to do so in 2022. Catch rate (C%) includes all passes listed in the official
The first line contains biographical data—each player’s play-by-play with the given player as the intended receiver,
name, height, weight, college, draft position, birth date, even if those passes were listed as “Thrown Away,” “Batted
and age. Height and weight are the best data we could find; Down,” or “Quarterback Hit in Motion.” The average NFL
weight, of course, can fluctuate during the off-season. Age is wide receiver caught 63% of passes in 2021, while the aver-
very simple, the number of years between the player’s birth age tight end caught 69% of passes.
year and 2022, but birth date is provided if you want to figure Plus/minus (+/-) is a metric that we introduced in Football
out exact age. Outsiders Almanac 2010. It estimates how many passes a re-
Draft position gives draft year and round, with the overall ceiver caught compared to what an average receiver would have
pick number with which the player was taken in parentheses. caught, given the location of those passes. Unlike simple catch
In the sample table, it says that Cooper Kupp was chosen in rate, plus/minus does not consider passes listed as “Thrown
the 2017 NFL draft with the 69th overall pick in the third Away,” “Batted Down,” “Quarterback Hit in Motion,” or “Mis-
round. Undrafted free agents are listed as “FA” with the year communication.” Player performance is compared to a histori-
they came into the league, even if they were only in training cal baseline of how often a pass is caught based on the pass
camp or on a practice squad. distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether it
To the far right of the first line is the player’s Risk for fan- is on the left, middle, or right side of the field. Note that plus/
tasy football in 2022. As explained in the quarterback section, minus is not scaled to a player’s target total.
the standard is for players to be marked Green. Players with Drops (Drop) list the number of dropped passes according
higher than normal risk are marked Yellow, and players with to charting from Sports Info Solutions. Our totals may differ
the highest risk are marked Red. Players who are most likely from the drop totals kept by other organizations. Yards per
to match or surpass our forecast—primarily second-stringers catch (Yd/C) is a standard statistic.
with low projections but also some particularly strong break- Next you’ll find each player’s average depth of target
out candidates—are marked Blue. Risk is not only based on (aDOT). This is the average distance beyond the line of
age and injury probability, but how a player’s projection com- scrimmage on all throws to this player. Long-ball specialists
pares to his recent performance as well as our confidence (or will rank high in this category Deep-ball specialists will rank
lack thereof) in his offensive teammates. high in this category (Marquez Valdes-Scantling had an 17.9
Next we give the last three years of player stats. Note that aDOT, most of any qualifying wide receiver) while players
rushing stats are not included for receivers, but that any re- who see a lot of passes on slants and screens will rank low
ceiver with at least five carries last year will have his 2021 (Arizona’s Rondale Moore was absurdly low with 2.0 aDOT).
rushing stats appear in his team’s chapter. Wide receivers are Next we list yards after catch (YAC), rank (Rk) in yards
taking more carries than ever before, with a record 31 differ- after catch, and YAC+. YAC+ is similar to plus/minus; it es-
ent wide receivers (plus one tight end) getting at least five timates how much YAC a receiver gained compared to what
carries last season. Deebo Samuel set a new record for wide we would have expected from an average receiver catching
receivers with 255 rushing DYAR. The top rushing wide re- passes of similar length in similar down-and-distance situa-
ceivers are listed in a table below. tions. This is imperfect—we don’t base YAC+ on what route
First come games played and games started (G/GS). Games a player runs, and obviously a go route will have more YAC
played represents the official NFL total and may include than a comeback—but it does a fairly good job of telling you
games in which a player appeared on special teams but did if this receiver gets more or less YAC than other receivers
not play wide receiver or tight end. We also have a total of of- with similar usage patterns. We also give a total of broken
fensive Snaps for each season. Receptions (Rec) counts pass- tackles (BTkl) according to Sports Info Solutions charting.
es caught, while Passes (Pass) counts passes thrown to this The next four columns include our main advanced metrics
player, complete or incomplete. Receiving yards (Yds) and for receiving: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)

Cooper Kupp Height: 6-2 Weight: 208 College: Eastern Washington Draft: 2017/3 (69) Born: 15-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAR 16/14 905 134 94 1161 10 7 70% +4.4 5 12.4 7.3 76 5.7 11 +1.0 12 7.1% 30 205 18 22.0% 27 92%
2020 LAR 15/12 842 124 92 974 3 5 74% +6.4 2 10.6 6.5 83 5.7 10 +0.8 24 -0.8% 45 118 29 23.6% 21 90%
2021 LAR 17/17 1024 191 145 1947 16 14 76% +17.3 6 13.4 8.6 72 5.8 12 +0.9 22 27.6% 3 618 1 31.9% 3 80%
2022 LAR 168 115 1506 12 68% 13.1 12.4%

330
 WIDE RECEIVERS 331

and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), lative statistic. Thus, a higher DVOA means more value per
along with the player’s rank in both. These metrics compare pass play, while a higher DYAR means more aggregate value
every pass intended for a receiver and the results of that pass over the entire season. Numbers without opponent adjustment
to a league-average baseline based on the game situations in (YAR and VOA) can be found on our website, FootballOut-
which passes were thrown to that receiver. DVOA and DYAR siders.com.
are also adjusted based on the opposing defense and include To qualify for ranking in YAC, receiving DVOA, or receiv-
Defensive Pass Interference yards on passes intended for that ing DYAR, a wide receiver must have had 50 passes thrown to
receiver. The methods used to compute these numbers are him in that season. We ranked 93 wide receivers in 2021, 87
described in detail in the “Statistical Toolbox” introduction in 2020, and 81 in 2019. Tight ends qualify with 25 targets in
in the front of the book. The important distinction between a given season; we ranked 55 tight ends in 2021, 50 in 2020,
them is that DVOA is a rate statistic, while DYAR is a cumu- and 48 in 2019.

Top 20 WR by DYAR Top 20 WR by DVOA

(Total Value), 2021 (Value per Pass), 2021
Rank Player Team DYAR Rank Player Team DVOA
1 Cooper Kupp LAR 615 1 Kendrick Bourne NE 30.1%
2 Davante Adams GB 421 2 Byron Pringle KC 29.6%
3 Justin Jefferson MIN 414 3 Cooper Kupp LAR 27.4%
4 Mike Evans TB 347 4 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 25.4%
5 Tee Higgins CIN 332 5 Mike Evans TB 25.0%
6 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 324 6 Allen Lazard GB 24.8%
7 Tyreek Hill KC 312 7 Tee Higgins CIN 24.7%
8 Tyler Lockett SEA 306 8 Christian Kirk ARI 23.0%
9 Christian Kirk ARI 284 9 Tyler Lockett SEA 22.7%
10 Hunter Renfrow LV 268 10 Brandon Aiyuk SF 19.3%
11 Chris Godwin TB 244 11 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 19.1%
12 Deebo Samuel SF 234 12 Justin Jefferson MIN 18.7%
13 Mike Williams LAC 233 13 Cedrick Wilson DAL 18.6%
14 Kendrick Bourne NE 228 14 Jalen Guyton LAC 18.6%
15 Brandon Aiyuk SF 214 15 Davante Adams GB 17.5%
16 CeeDee Lamb DAL 204 16 Deonte Harris NO 17.2%
17 Byron Pringle KC 202 17 Tim Patrick DEN 15.8%
18 Michael Pittman IND 201 18 Hunter Renfrow LV 14.0%
19 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 196 19 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE 12.9%
20 Tim Patrick DEN 190 20 Deebo Samuel SF 12.7%
Minimum 50 passes. Minimum 50 passes.

Top 10 WR/TE by Rushing Top 10 WR/TE by Rushing

DYAR (Total Value), 2021 DVOA (Value per Rush), 2021
Rank Player Team DYAR Rank Player Team DVOA
1 Deebo Samuel SF 255 1 Kendrick Bourne NE 140.2%
2 Kendrick Bourne NE 90 2 Jamal Agnew JAX 129.2%
3 Jamal Agnew JAX 65 3 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 119.1%
4 Braxton Berrios NYJ 57 4 Elijah Moore NYJ 116.1%
5 Isaiah McKenzie BUF 49 5 Isaiah McKenzie BUF 87.8%
6 Chase Claypool PIT 48 6 Braxton Berrios NYJ 83.6%
7 Elijah Moore NYJ 48 7 Diontae Johnson PIT 81.9%
8 Tyreek Hill KC 47 8 Michael Pittman IND 60.1%
9 CeeDee Lamb DAL 39 9 Robert Woods LAR 56.8%
10 DJ Moore CAR 37 10 Tyreek Hill KC 56.6%
Minimum 5 carries. Minimum 5 carries.
332 WIDE RECEIVERS

The final columns measure each player’s role in his offense. account for the possibility of injury so workload projections
Usage rate (Use) measures each player’s share of his team’s may seem low for the top players.
targets, adjusted for games played. A.J. Brown was targeted It is difficult to accurately project statistics for a 162-game
on 19.9% of Tennessee’s targets, but he only played 13 games. baseball season, but it is exponentially more difficult to accu-
Adjusting for the four missing games gives Brown a more ac- rately project statistics for a 17-game football season. Consid-
curate usage rate of 26.1%, 12th among qualifying receivers. er the listed projections not as a prediction of exact numbers,
The final column shows the percentage of each player’s tar- but as the mean of a range of possible performances. What’s
gets that came when he lined up in the Slot (or at tight end). important is less the exact number of yards we project, and
Jamison Crowder and Tyler Boyd each saw 94% of their tar- more which players are projected to improve or decline. Actu-
gets from the slot, the highest rate in the league. Three qualify- al performance will vary from our projection less for veteran
ing receivers were at the bottom with just 19% of targets from starters and more for rookies and third-stringers, for whom we
the slot: A.J. Green, Diontae Johnson, and DeVante Parker. must base our projections on much smaller career statistical
Tight ends have an additional column listing how frequently samples. Touchdown numbers will vary more than yardage
they were split Wide, from a high of 22% (Kyle Pitts) to a low numbers. Players facing suspension or recovering from injury
of 0% (lots of guys). have those missed games taken into account.
“Slot” and “Wide” here are defined based on where the A few low-round rookies, guys listed at seventh on the
players are lined up in relation to the field, not based on where depth chart, and players who are listed as wide receivers but
they are lined up in relation to other receivers. For example, really only play special teams are briefly discussed at the end
if three wide receivers are in a trips bunch that is tight to the of the chapter in a section we call “Going Deep.”
formation, all three receivers are marked as “slot” even if no Two notes regarding our advanced metrics: We cannot yet
other receiver is further out wide on that same side of the for- fully separate the performance of a receiver from the perfor-
mation. mance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the
The italicized row of statistics for the 2022 season is our other. In addition, these statistics measure only passes thrown
2022 KUBIAK projection as explained further in the Statisti- to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown
cal Toolbox at the front of the book. Be aware that projections the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.

Davante Adams Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: Fresno State Draft: 2014/2 (53) Born: 12/24/1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 GB 12/12 695 127 83 997 5 13 65% +0.3 8 12.0 10.5 51 4.7 31 -0.1 5 0.6% 43 139 31 31.7% 2 48%
2020 GB 14/14 775 149 115 1374 18 18 77% +13.6 2 11.9 9.0 62 5.2 21 +0.8 12 19.7% 11 395 1 33.8% 1 59%
2021 GB 16/16 886 169 123 1553 11 11 73% +13.6 2 12.6 9.7 66 4.9 24 +0.3 17 17.6% 15 423 2 32.0% 2 60%
2022 LV 153 108 1338 9 71% 12.4 10.4%

The projections above reflect a slight production dip in going from a Hall of Fame quarterback to a Highly Qualified quar-
terback, with another slight dip because Adams will no longer be the only receiver his quarterback trusts on passes more than 3
yards downfield. On the other hand, Adams gets a bump because he’s going from a team that gets to sit on lots of fourth-quarter
leads to one that will throw a million passes because it’s trapped in endless AFC West bullet hell. It all adds up to numbers that
will have Raiders fans and fantasy gamers saying “This is fine” while sipping their coffee. The Internet will surely keep track of
all the players the Raiders could have drafted/signed instead of Adams, rehashing the list every time Adams has a three-catch-
on-nine-target game and/or the Raiders stumble. The Internet will have a point. But the NFL is not a resource-management
exercise in an economics class. The Raiders wouldn’t be getting the 1,330 yards projected above from anyone else, and they
wouldn’t be relevant without them.

Nelson Agholor Height: 6-0 Weight: 198 College: USC Draft: 2015/1 (20) Born: 24-May-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 PHI 11/10 706 69 39 363 3 6 57% -1.4 4 9.3 11.3 43 3.4 62 -2.0 8 -35.0% 79 -123 80 16.7% 59 83%
2020 LV 16/13 731 82 48 896 8 15 59% -1.4 8 18.7 16.4 4 4.8 29 +0.6 9 28.0% 4 277 10 16.3% 56 57%
2021 NE 15/13 707 64 37 473 3 5 58% +3.1 1 12.8 14.2 9 2.8 86 -1.3 4 -1.3% 59 60 63 14.6% 65 38%
2022 NE 28 19 242 1 68% 12.7 1.4%

Agholor parlayed his 2020 campaign, the best season of his career—best DYAR, best DVOA, most receiving yards, most
touchdowns—into a payday with the New England Patriots. No one expected Agholor to repeat the top-five receiving perfor-
mance he put up in Las Vegas, but they at least anticipated competent and reliable play. Primed to be the Patriots’ premier deep
 WIDE RECEIVERS 333

threat in 2021, things didn’t quite work out as planned. Agholor’s ninth-ranked average depth of target is heavily contrasted by
his No. 86 yards after catch rate. Agholor’s productivity took a precipitous drop-off in late downs. On third and fourth down,
he posted a -59.3% DVOA and 3.1 yards per target on a 43% catch rate. With the acquisitions of DeVante Parker and Tyquan
Thornton, Agholor is really going to have to work to redeem his role in the Patriots offense.

Brandon Aiyuk Height: 6-0 Weight: 206 College: Arizona State Draft: 2020/1 (25) Born: 17-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 SF 12/11 728 96 60 748 5 7 63% -1.8 5 12.5 10.1 50 4.8 28 -0.0 14 1.7% 40 117 31 23.7% 18 59%
2021 SF 17/16 906 83 56 826 5 10 66% +0.9 4 14.8 10.5 57 6.3 7 +2.2 19 21.9% 10 227 15 17.1% 54 55%
2022 SF 80 50 653 3 63% 13.1 -2.9%

After making a major splash down the stretch of his rookie campaign in 2020, Aiyuk entered the 2021 season with a chance
to build off that and establish himself as one of the top young receivers in the league. Instead, Aiyuk started off the year play-
ing about half the time and never consistently replicated the production we saw from him late in his rookie year. In hindsight,
it appears that the 2020 injuries sustained by both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel played a large part in Aiyuk vacuuming up
targets during his rookie season, and with both players on the field for the majority of 2021, he fell down the receiving pecking
order even though he was playing nearly every snap by season’s end. Had the 49ers had an uneventful offseason where there
was no doubt about their ability to retain both Kittle and Samuel, Aiyuk would likely be in line for a similar role in 2022, but
with Samuel expressing interest in being traded away from San Francisco, it is possible that a larger role will open up for Aiyuk
once again.

Keenan Allen Height: 6-2 Weight: 211 College: California Draft: 2013/3 (76) Born: 27-Apr-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAC 16/16 944 149 104 1199 6 12 70% +8.5 5 11.5 10.2 52 3.5 59 -0.7 11 7.3% 28 232 16 25.7% 10 63%
2020 LAC 14/13 874 147 100 992 8 11 68% +0.9 3 9.9 7.5 79 4.4 44 -0.4 16 -8.1% 64 53 57 27.7% 4 67%
2021 LAC 16/16 972 157 106 1138 6 10 68% +6.3 8 10.7 8.4 75 3.2 74 -1.3 3 -2.3% 63 133 33 25.4% 16 76%
2022 LAC 133 90 1030 7 68% 11.4 0.8%

Allen finished second in the NFL among wide receivers in third/fourth-down targets (56) and receptions (37, with Justin
Jefferson leading the league in both categories). Thirty of Allen’s late-down catches netted first downs, again second behind
Jefferson, but he also suffered five drops.
Allen tied Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions with a league-high six fourth-down receptions, with St. Brown leading the NFL
in targets (10 to Allen’s eight) and conversions (six to five). Brandon Staley’s aggressiveness has got nothing on Dan Camp-
bell’s combination of aggression and desperation.
Allen was targeted just 33 times in his final four games. Justin Herbert grew more comfortable throwing to Josh Palmer and
Jalen Guyton down the stretch, while Allen went just 4-35-0 in the Week 16 Texans loss, when Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton,
and Austin Ekeler were all out. Allen remains a quality wide receiver, and he’s great at operating out of the slot and moving the
sticks in high-leverage situations, but little signs of decline—including eight drops in 2021 and back-to-back years of negative
DVOA—may be masked by Justin Herbert’s improvement and the 17-game schedule. Allen is clearly a fantasy WR2 these
days, and he may be heading for a similar role in the real world as well.

Danny Amendola Height: 5-11 Weight: 185 College: Texas Tech Draft: 2008/FA Born: 2-Nov-1985 Age: 37 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DET 15/10 656 97 62 678 1 4 64% -2.2 6 10.9 8.8 65 3.3 64 -0.9 6 -10.2% 64 18 64 18.6% 47 88%
2020 DET 14/5 462 69 46 602 0 2 67% -1.8 3 13.1 8.1 75 6.4 5 +1.0 6 -1.0% 46 62 50 13.8% 73 90%
2021 HOU 8/0 191 38 24 248 3 2 63% -1.3 0 10.3 8.4 -- 4.4 -- -0.1 2 -18.2% -- -16 -- 15.2% -- 82%

With 24 receptions, Amendola ranked 60th for receptions in a season for a player age 36 or older since the merger. Amen-
dola appeared in eight games and missed two separate four-game stints with a thigh injury, a meniscus injury, and COVID. He
returned for Week 18 and went for seven receptions and 113 yards with two touchdowns on nine targets. It nearly eclipsed his
prior season total in yards (135) and tripled his touchdown total (one). Amendola, a two-time Super Bowl champion with New
334 WIDE RECEIVERS

England, also played in St. Louis, Miami, and Detroit before putting off retirement to join Houston in 2021. If he retires this
year, he’ll be back in front of the cameras soon—he signed a contract with Ford Models in 2017.

Robby Anderson Height: 6-3 Weight: 190 College: Temple Draft: 2016/FA Born: 9-May-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NYJ 16/15 944 96 52 779 5 10 54% -2.3 2 15.0 15.4 8 3.7 53 -0.8 4 -4.2% 53 66 52 20.0% 39 21%
2020 CAR 16/16 804 137 95 1096 3 8 70% +3.8 6 11.5 9.7 53 5.2 22 -0.0 14 -10.9% 73 19 68 26.3% 6 64%
2021 CAR 17/16 978 110 53 519 5 7 48% -17.0 5 9.8 10.5 56 3.0 82 -1.8 7 -33.7% 91 -176 92 19.0% 41 55%
2022 CAR 83 48 545 3 58% 11.4 -15.7%

The Panthers were likely hoping for a little more from Anderson after signing him to a two-year extension last offseason.
Anderson hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since October 2020, and you can’t blame that all on shoddy quarterback play
as his drop rate jumped up to 6.5% last season, a mark he hadn’t hit since his first few years in New York. He was in the bottom
15 in both receiving plus/minus and YAC+ too, so very few special things happened when the ball was thrown Anderson’s way.
All that said, only 70.6% of Anderson’s targets were marked as catchable, which is low for a player who isn’t solely a deep
threat. Only Jarvis Landry had a lower catchable rate with a lower aDOT than Anderson. Better quarterback play might at least
get Anderson off the bottom of our leaderboards.

Tavon Austin Height: 5-8 Weight: 179 College: West Virgina Draft: 2013/1 (8) Born: 15-Mar-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DAL 14/0 307 24 13 177 1 1 54% -1.2 0 13.6 12.5 -- 6.5 -- +1.6 2 -12.1% -- 1 -- 4.7% -- 42%
2020 GB 4/0 30 5 5 20 0 0 100% +0.5 0 4.0 -4.4 -- 8.4 -- -1.3 1 -28.7% -- -6 -- 3.9% -- 75%
2021 JAX 13/3 288 37 24 213 1 3 65% -1.5 2 8.9 8.6 -- 2.8 -- -2.5 6 -23.6% -- -31 -- 8.2% -- 62%
2022 BUF 5 3 31 0 60% 10.3 -9.1%

We never thought Tavon Austin would get enough usage to show up with a full Almanac table again, but somehow he ended
up getting 37 targets for a Jacksonville team where the receivers were wracked by injuries. It didn’t go well. Buffalo will be his
fourth team in four years, assuming Austin can even make the roster. He’s not even a useful special teams piece at this point, as
he’s got just five punt returns over the last two seasons and hasn’t returned a kickoff since 2017. Thanks to Deebo Samuel, his
2015 season with the Rams no longer holds the record for most rushing DYAR by a wide receiver.

Rashod Bateman Height: 6-2 Weight: 210 College: Minnesota Draft: 2021/1 (27) Born: 29-Nov-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 BAL 12/4 604 68 46 515 1 3 68% +3.2 2 11.2 9.9 62 3.5 64 -0.4 4 5.6% 40 104 47 16.8% 57 28%
2022 BAL 111 73 886 6 66% 12.1 0.8%

With all the Ravens who missed 2021 in its entirety with injury, it was easy to overlook Bateman, who popped a groin in
training camp and wasn’t fully ready until midseason. He flashed glimpses of his first-round talent by year’s end, going over
100 yards in Cleveland in Week 14 and catching seven balls in Week 17 against the Rams. Now the team’s No. 1 receiver by
default, the pressure is on the former Golden Gophers star with barely 600 pro snaps to his name to provide some—any—sem-
blance of a downfield perimeter threat. Bateman changed his number from 12 to 7 for this season, either signifying a breakout
campaign ahead or an attempt to disguise his true identity in hopes of a trade to a more modern passing attack.

Cole Beasley Height: 5-8 Weight: 174 College: Southern Methodist Draft: 2012/FA Born: 26-Apr-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 BUF 15/10 747 106 67 778 6 2 63% -2.9 6 11.6 8.1 71 5.0 21 +0.8 4 1.3% 41 112 37 23.3% 19 89%
2020 BUF 15/10 680 107 82 967 4 5 77% +9.7 2 11.8 7.8 76 4.3 45 -0.4 7 19.9% 10 267 12 19.7% 36 94%
2021 BUF 16/8 691 112 82 693 1 4 73% +3.1 6 8.5 5.6 90 3.7 59 -1.2 5 -18.0% 85 -46 88 18.9% 43 88%
 WIDE RECEIVERS 335

At 5-foot-8 and 174 pounds, Beasley could never have been confused for an outside receiver such as Mike Evans or DK
Metcalf. But with excellent short-area quickness, Beasley played his slot role well. His 12.5% receiving DVOA on slot targets
in 2019 and 2020 was 18th best among receivers with 100 or more slot targets. But Beasley saw that efficiency decline dramati-
cally in 2021 to -12.8% DVOA. And now 33 years old and with a controversial public persona because of his COVID opinions
and handling of NFL mask requirements, Beasley has not found a new home in free agency.

Odell Beckham Height: 5-11 Weight: 198 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2014/1 (12) Born: 5-Nov-1992 Age: 30 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CLE 16/15 1017 133 74 1035 4 13 56% -5.5 9 14.0 12.9 29 4.4 38 -0.3 8 -5.4% 56 79 46 26.6% 6 30%
2020 CLE 7/7 316 43 23 319 3 5 53% -2.9 1 13.9 13.7 -- 2.0 -- -2.1 8 -8.8% -- 13 -- 21.3% -- 33%
2021 2TM 14/13 666 82 44 537 5 9 54% -6.3 3 12.2 13.5 15 3.4 68 -1.0 0 -12.6% 78 0 78 18.2% 48 47%

You want a perfect illustration of how Beckham’s move to Los Angeles turned his season (and career) around? He had -26
DYAR in six games with the Browns but mirrored that with 26 DYAR in eight games with the Rams. That was just in the regu-
lar season, mind you—he added 124 DYAR in the postseason, putting up a 21-288-2 stat line (with an 80% catch rate!) in three-
and-a-half postseason games. It’s that “and-a-half” that complicates things, however. The torn ACL that Beckham suffered in
the Super Bowl means he likely won’t play this fall until November. Since he won’t be hitting the field soon anyway, Beckham
appears to be content to sit back and wait, then repeat what he did in 2021: join a contending team midseason and help them win
a Super Bowl. The Rams have made it clear they want him back, even after signing Allen Robinson in free agency. Beckham is
reportedly open to a return to Cleveland. The Packers also seem like a natural fit. Wherever he lands, Beckham’s ultimate goal
will be to finish the season productive and healthy, then get a mega-contract as a premier free agent in 2023.

David Bell Height: 6-2 Weight: 205 College: Purdue Draft: 2022/3 (99) Born: 14-Dec-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 CLE 46 32 349 2 70% 10.9 -4.2%

One of the easiest evaluations in the entire wide receiver class of 2022, David Bell isn’t a plus as an NFL athlete. He ran a
4.65s 40-yard dash, and he was 36th percentile or lower in practically every combine metric for speed, burst, and agility. What
he can do is play football: he’s got the weight to take a licking over the middle of the field, he reads holes in zone extremely
well, and he’s got great technique and vision. Bell was almost immediately penciled in for the Jarvis Landry role after he was
drafted, and he spent time with the first-team offense in OTAs. He’s got a real chance to be the starting slot wideout on Day 1.
“You were the first guy I watched, and right away, I was like, ‘We need to get this guy,’” Kevin Stefanski told Bell in a meeting
shown on Building The Browns, the team’s web series. Don’t expect a superstar, but Bell can play.

Braxton Berrios Height: 5-9 Weight: 190 College: Miami Draft: 2018/6 (210) Born: 6-Oct-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NYJ 16/0 85 13 6 115 0 0 46% -0.7 1 19.2 8.2 -- 14.5 -- +9.7 1 -15.2% -- -2 -- 2.6% -- 67%
2020 NYJ 16/2 290 55 37 394 3 3 67% -0.3 3 10.6 7.6 77 5.8 8 +0.5 8 -3.4% 52 39 63 11.8% 78 81%
2021 NYJ 16/1 390 66 46 431 2 2 71% -0.3 2 9.4 5.1 92 5.6 15 -0.7 3 -13.2% 79 -3 79 11.8% 81 88%
2022 NYJ 30 18 190 1 60% 10.6 -21.5%

Say what you want about Braxton Berrios, but he’ll be there when you need him. For the last two years, Berrios has consis-
tently stepped up when the Jets lose receivers. In 2020, Berrios filled in for the four games Jamison Crowder missed. When
Elijah Moore and Corey Davis both went down in 2021, Berrios rose to the occasion again. Two years of reliable next-man-up
attitude was enough for the Jets to feel comfortable letting Jamison Crowder walk in free agency. With all the pass-catching
weapons the Jets added for 2022, he hasn’t really moved up the totem pole, but at least now Berrios is a reliable reserve instead
of a “break in case of emergency” option.
336 WIDE RECEIVERS

Kendrick Bourne Height: 6-1 Weight: 203 College: Eastern Washington Draft: 2017/FA Born: 4-Aug-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 SF 16/0 475 44 30 358 5 5 68% +0.1 3 11.9 9.3 -- 4.1 -- +0.3 6 25.7% -- 130 -- 9.4% -- 78%
2020 SF 15/5 688 74 49 667 2 5 66% +0.8 5 13.6 9.2 59 4.5 41 +0.7 8 6.1% 29 107 36 14.2% 67 61%
2021 NE 17/5 573 70 55 800 5 1 79% +7.0 2 14.5 8.5 73 7.0 5 +2.2 12 30.1% 1 228 14 13.2% 73 70%
2022 NE 55 37 470 3 67% 12.7 2.3%

Last season, Deebo Samuel gave himself the new position title of “wide back.” If you really want the ultimate gadget player,
though, look no further than his former teammate. Bourne led all wide receivers in DVOA, but the fun only starts there. He
boasted a 40.8% DVOA (fourth) when lined up out wide and a 29.1% DVOA (15th) when in tight or in the slot. Bourne also
led all receivers with a 140.2% rushing DVOA, gaining 125 yards on 12 carries, and finished second with a 90 rushing DYAR
(barely one-third of Samuel’s total, but still). Had enough fun? Too bad, because Bourne’s 25-yard touchdown pass to Nelson
Agholor slots him second in passing DVOA and fifth in passing DYAR among non-quarterbacks.

Tyler Boyd Height: 6-2 Weight: 203 College: Pittsburgh Draft: 2016/2 (55) Born: 15-Nov-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CIN 16/15 1001 148 90 1046 5 3 61% -3.4 5 11.6 9.6 63 3.9 48 -0.9 16 -12.4% 68 3 67 25.2% 12 77%
2020 CIN 15/8 746 110 79 841 4 9 72% +4.1 2 10.6 8.7 67 4.4 42 -0.0 7 -6.2% 62 56 56 20.8% 33 91%
2021 CIN 16/10 808 94 67 828 5 5 71% +7.0 1 12.4 7.9 78 5.8 13 +1.0 10 2.2% 48 109 45 18.2% 49 94%
2022 CIN 88 63 747 5 72% 11.9 7.1%

Boyd felt like the forgotten element at times in Cincy, but not on third down, where he remained a strong option—17.5%
DVOA, 79% catch rate. After leading the team in red zone targets in 2020, Boyd fell to third behind the star wideouts and tied
with C.J. Uzomah and Joe Mixon as well (Boyd was much better than those two by DVOA). If your fantasy team was a little
disappointed in Boyd last season, that’s partially why. Still, you could do much worse than having Boyd as a third wideout on
your team—that’s certainly true of the Bengals as well.

A.J. Brown Height: 6-0 Weight: 226 College: Mississippi Draft: 2019/2 (51) Born: 30-Jun-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TEN 16/11 695 84 52 1051 8 5 62% +0.8 2 20.2 13.2 26 8.9 1 +4.4 20 26.2% 4 251 11 19.4% 43 40%
2020 TEN 14/12 759 106 70 1075 11 6 66% +3.6 6 15.4 11.4 37 6.2 6 +2.2 21 25.0% 8 332 6 26.6% 5 44%
2021 TEN 13/13 604 105 63 869 5 9 60% -1.5 6 13.8 11.6 40 3.7 58 -0.4 8 1.2% 52 112 43 26.1% 12 54%
2022 PHI 120 73 1057 6 61% 14.5 3.6%

Jalen Hurts isn’t a good anticipatory thrower, but with Brown on the field, he might not have to be. If Brown isn’t open, he
will get open. Take it from 49ers safety Jimmie Ward. On a third-and-10 play late in their Week 16 game, Ward jammed Brown
as he was crossing over the middle. Brown kept his balance, tossed Ward to the ground, and caught a 12-yard pass that set up
the Titans’ go-ahead touchdown, also caught by Brown.
In the Eagles chapter, we discussed the difference Brown will make over the middle, but he should also give Philadelphia a
much-needed boost in scenarios like the one above. On third and fourth downs with 7 or more yards to go last season, Hurts
was 25-of-48 for 368 yards and one touchdown. Only 22.9% of his passes resulted in a first down, a rate that ranked 32nd out
of 38 quarterbacks (minimum 25 passes). As for Brown, he caught 13 of 15 targets for 181 yards, one touchdown, and seven
first downs. His 46.7% first-down rate on targets was fourth highest behind only Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill
(minimum 15 targets).

Antonio Brown Height: 5-10 Weight: 185 College: Central Michigan Draft: 2010/6 (195) Born: 10-Jul-1988 Age: 34 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NE 1/0 24 8 4 56 1 4 50% -1.0 0 14.0 11.5 -- 1.8 -- -0.9 0 -14.0% -- -1 -- 21.3% -- 50%
2020 TB 8/4 323 62 45 483 4 4 73% +3.0 1 10.7 8.9 66 5.6 12 +0.6 6 8.9% 24 110 35 20.0% 35 42%
2021 TB 7/3 268 62 42 545 4 4 68% +5.3 1 13.0 11.8 37 4.5 33 -0.4 6 12.8% 20 126 37 21.0% 30 32%
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In an interview at the Fan Controlled Football League, Brown said that he won’t be playing in 2022. He has also asked Pitts-
burgh to give him a one-day contract so he can retire as a Steeler. Trusting anything Brown says is a good way to look foolish,
but he still has not had the ankle surgery needed to return to the field, so it seems highly doubtful Brown will be catching passes
from anyone this season. It’s also unclear if any team would dare take a chance on the … we’re going to say “mercurial” here
to be polite … wideout. Brown has shown he can absolutely still be a factor into his mid-thirties, but also that trusting him for
any extended period of time is a great way to get burned. Tms put up with a lot of nonsense to keep talented players happy, but
stripping and walking off the field in the middle of a game seems like a good way to put the final nail into your coffin.

Dyami Brown Height: 6-1 Weight: 195 College: North Carolina Draft: 2021/3 (82) Born: 1-Nov-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 WAS 15/6 335 25 12 165 0 4 48% -2.4 1 13.8 16.7 -- 2.8 -- -2.2 2 -13.4% -- -1 -- 5.4% -- 31%
2022 WAS 20 12 150 1 60% 12.5 -14.4%

Brown qualified for NFL Next Gen Stats’ weekly leaderboard twice: Week 3 and Week 6. In those two weeks he gained 2.1
and 1.4 yards of separation on average, respectively. Those would both be bottom-10 numbers in the NFL over the course of the
full season. After opening the season with snap count shares of 93% and 87%, Brown never played that much again and dealt
with a nagging knee injury through October. He’ll get some run if the Commanders have more setbacks with Curtis Samuel, but
nothing from Brown’s rookie season is all that encouraging. The hope that he’ll develop in the NFL still hangs on his college
performance, which gave him an 84.7% Playmaker Rating.

Marquise Brown Height: 5-9 Weight: 170 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2019/1 (25) Born: 4-Jun-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 BAL 14/11 571 71 46 584 7 10 65% +1.3 3 12.7 11.9 37 4.9 22 -0.4 6 4.2% 35 98 42 19.6% 41 63%
2020 BAL 16/14 802 100 58 769 8 13 58% -2.9 9 13.3 13.1 18 4.7 31 +0.2 8 -6.5% 63 48 58 25.6% 8 56%
2021 BAL 16/16 924 146 91 1008 6 13 62% -0.4 7 11.1 11.6 39 4.3 41 -0.7 9 -13.9% 80 -14 83 26.5% 11 61%
2022 ARI 102 66 787 5 65% 11.9 -2.7%

Brown was acquired by the Cardinals in a draft-day trade with the Ravens for a first-round pick, reuniting him with his old
college quarterback Kyler Murray. The diminutive speedster is coming off a career high in receiving yards and receptions, but
his uptick in production can largely be attributed to Baltimore passing much more frequently than they had previously in his
career. On a per-target basis, throwing Brown’s way was an inefficient endeavor, and that cannot be blamed on his average
depth of target in the same way as with Rondale Moore, as Brown’s aDOT was nearly 10 yards further down the field than his
new teammate. Given his size, Brown fits best as a slot option for the Cardinals when both DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green
are available, but with Hopkins suspended to start the season, we may see Brown line up out wide on the offensive left to fill in
for Arizona’s absent star. Brown has played both inside and outside in the past in part because of Baltimore’s historical tendency
to use multiple tight ends, so it would not be completely out of his comfort zone to slide outside.

Noah Brown Height: 6-2 Weight: 222 College: Ohio State Draft: 2017/7 (239) Born: 19-Jul-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 DAL 16/1 227 24 14 154 0 0 58% -1.1 0 11.0 10.3 -- 3.4 -- -0.3 1 -12.6% -- 0 -- 3.8% -- 52%
2021 DAL 13/1 302 25 16 184 0 0 64% -0.4 2 11.5 9.1 -- 4.3 -- +0.4 2 -16.0% -- -6 -- 5.0% -- 48%
2022 DAL 11 7 82 1 64% 11.7 -16.7%

Neatly in the archetype of “big wideout that hangs on the roster because of special teams value,” Brown re-signed with the
Cowboys on a one-year deal. With both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper sitting in Thanksgiving’s game against the Raiders,
Brown turned nine targets into 53 yards, but was thoroughly outpaced by Dallas’ better receivers. He only saw three targets the
rest of the year as a groin injury limited him to 42 offensive snaps in the Cowboys’ last eight games, including the playoff loss to
San Francisco. He’s a useful enough player, but he doesn’t return kicks and doesn’t figure to be a fantasy factor in any real way.
338 WIDE RECEIVERS

Treylon Burks Height: 6-3 Weight: 225 College: Arkansas Draft: 2022/1 (18) Born: 23-Mar-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 TEN 86 56 714 4 65% 12.8 0.9%

Burks went through the draft process with the “Deebo Samuel role” label and landed on the team where he’ll replace A.J.
Brown. Burks has the ability to do a bit of both. He had the highest Playmaker Score in this draft class for a reason. He led the
class in yards per route run and was second in average yards after the catch. Burks dropped a bit in the draft after a lackluster
workout and 4.55s 40-yard dash. His play speed is faster and his size makes it even more effective. Burks had the fifth-most
yards on screens in college football in 2021 but was also 23rd on receptions of 20 or more air yards. With the trade of Brown,
Burks is expected to slide right in and immediately play a big role on the offense. Offseason workouts did not provide the best
first impression as he struggled to finish practices due to asthma. There was also a report from Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer
that Burks had labored through pre-draft workouts. Mike Vrabel told reporters the team was comfortable with Burks’ medical
history. Any asthma-related issues did not appear to limit Burks throughout his college career.

Damiere Byrd Height: 5-9 Weight: 180 College: South Carolina Draft: 2015/FA Born: 27-Jan-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ARI 11/3 461 46 32 359 1 1 70% +2.3 0 11.2 9.8 -- 4.7 -- -0.4 7 -4.6% -- 30 -- 12.7% -- 11%
2020 NE 16/14 901 77 47 604 1 1 61% -4.3 5 12.9 11.4 38 3.7 62 -1.0 5 -12.3% 76 2 76 18.5% 46 28%
2021 CHI 17/4 620 38 26 329 1 1 68% +0.4 2 12.7 8.6 -- 4.5 -- +0.3 0 1.6% -- 43 -- 7.1% -- 42%
2022 ATL 14 8 110 1 57% 13.8 -16.6%

It says something about the state of Atlanta’s receiving corps that Byrd represents an exciting potential starter. The majority
of the Falcons receiving corps now consists of big-bodied possession guys, making the 5-foot-9 Byrd something different—the
potential deep threat to take the top off opposing defenses. That’s how he was used in New England in 2020, finishing second
on the team in targets and DVOA. But he never could really fit in to Chicago’s offense, gradually losing snaps in the slot as the
season went along. Even the best version of Byrd wasn’t amazing, but the Falcons have every incentive to try to get something
out of the diminutive speedster considering the hulking giants that overwise dominate their receiving game.

Marquez Callaway Height: 6-2 Weight: 204 College: Tennessee Draft: 2020/FA Born: 27-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 NO 11/3 266 27 21 213 0 0 78% +2.3 0 10.1 8.4 -- 2.8 -- -1.0 2 0.1% -- 27 -- 7.6% -- 48%
2021 NO 17/11 833 84 46 698 6 10 55% -3.0 4 15.2 12.5 24 3.1 78 -0.8 5 3.5% 44 104 46 17.8% 51 48%
2022 NO 25 14 198 2 56% 14.1 -7.3%

At the start of the offseason, Callaway was the presumptive No. 2 wide receiver for the Saints. The fact that New Orleans
used a first-round pick on Chris Olave and brought Jarvis Landry into the fold tells you just how comfortable they were with
that situation. That said, Callaway was productive as an underneath receiver in 2021, even if he lacked after-catch explosive-
ness. Callaway’s DVOA was 8.3% with Jameis Winston under center, but it fell to -0.9% when catching passes from Taysom
Hill and Trever Siemian. Callaway being your top target, as he was last year, is a problem. As a slot receiver off the bench and
in four-wide sets, you could do much, much worse.

Parris Campbell Height: 6-0 Weight: 205 College: Ohio State Draft: 2019/2 (59) Born: 16-Jul-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 IND 7/3 200 24 18 127 1 1 75% +1.3 1 7.1 7.8 -- 5.9 -- -0.5 5 -73.4% -- -104 -- 11.0% -- 63%
2020 IND 2/2 63 9 6 71 0 0 67% +0.5 0 11.8 11.9 -- 3.0 -- -1.8 0 -21.3% -- -7 -- 13.1% -- 100%
2021 IND 6/3 177 20 10 162 1 0 50% -1.8 0 16.2 15.9 -- 1.7 -- -2.8 0 -6.7% -- 10 -- 12.1% -- 41%
2022 IND 64 43 555 3 67% 12.9 4.3%

In 2019, it was a foot injury. In 2020, it was a PCL tear. In 2021, another foot injury. There were some concussions and ab-
dominal injuries sprinkled in. As of June, Campbell was reportedly 100% healthy and serving as Matt Ryan’s favorite minicamp
 WIDE RECEIVERS 339

target. Whatever. History tells us that receivers don’t transform from forever-injured vaporware into productive starters in their
fourth NFL seasons, although KUBIAK is surprisingly sanguine about Campbell’s 2022 expectations.

DeAndre Carter Height: 5-8 Weight: 190 College: Sacramento State Draft: 2015/FA Born: 10-Apr-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 HOU 16/3 213 14 11 162 0 0 79% +2.6 1 14.7 10.8 -- 5.2 -- -0.1 0 21.8% -- 39 -- 2.7% -- 79%
2020 2TM 13/0 36 2 1 8 0 0 50% -0.4 1 8.0 8.0 -- 4.0 -- +1.2 0 -40.3% -- -5 -- 0.5% -- 100%
2021 WAS 17/6 505 44 24 296 3 4 55% -0.4 2 12.3 11.0 -- 3.3 -- -1.1 1 -3.0% -- 33 -- 8.1% -- 57%
2022 LAC 5 3 40 0 60% 13.3 -5.4%

Thrown onto a wideout chart that defined desperation, erstwhile returner Carter set a career-high in targets and notched re-
ceiving touchdowns three weeks in a row for Washington while garnering six or more targets four times. Carter continued to be
fumble-prone—he has put 12 balls on the ground in 245 career touches and returns—but he scored the first return touchdown
of his career and remains fast and agile enough in the open field to draw short targets and be a gadget offensive player. Carter
signed a one-year contract with the Chargers in the offseason and will factor into the depth while hopefully providing better and
more explosive punt returns than the Chargers got out of Andre Roberts and K.J. Hill last year.

DJ Chark Height: 6-4 Weight: 198 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2018/2 (61) Born: 23-Sep-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 JAX 15/14 864 118 73 1008 8 12 62% +1.8 4 13.8 11.9 38 4.3 39 -0.3 14 1.9% 38 134 32 22.8% 21 50%
2020 JAX 13/12 702 93 53 706 5 9 57% -2.9 3 13.3 14.2 9 3.1 75 -1.2 3 -9.1% 68 26 66 19.4% 39 34%
2021 JAX 4/4 169 22 7 154 2 1 32% -4.1 2 22.0 17.2 -- 3.4 -- +0.3 0 -10.7% -- 3 -- 16.6% -- 24%
2022 DET 82 55 745 4 67% 13.5 7.9%

Chark’s 2021 numbers should not count against him. His season was cut short in Week 4 due to an ankle fracture, and those
four games he did get to play were in the heat of Urban Meyer’s dysfunction. At his best, Chark is a stock-standard X receiver
with his blend of size, requisite speed, and contested-catch ability, though it took the Jaguars a minute to realize it. After earn-
ing half of his targets from the slot in 2019, Chark’s slot rate dropped to 34% in 2020, one of the lower rates in the league.
Moreover, Chark’s DVOA was better from out wide than the slot, significantly so in 2020 with a difference of 27.5% DVOA.
As a red zone target, Chark’s production doesn’t live up to the billing, but it’s easy to blame Jacksonville’s quarterback situation
for most of that. Chark still led the team in red zone targets in 2019 and 2020, totaling 27 targets. The Lions are now hoping
Chark will be healthy and give the team a real ball-winner on the outside, something Jared Goff has seldom, if ever, had in his
career, even during his Rams heyday.

Ja'Marr Chase Height: 6-0 Weight: 208 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2021/1 (5) Born: 1-Mar-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 CIN 17/17 940 128 81 1455 13 14 63% +4.3 11 18.0 12.6 22 8.0 4 +3.2 21 19.3% 11 326 6 23.6% 23 21%
2022 CIN 133 87 1352 8 65% 15.5 14.7%

When you are the star of a meme that declares, “F*ckit, Ja’Marr’s gotta be out there somewhere,” you know you’re doing
something right. Chase was under a ton of pressure as a rookie given his draft status, and it showed a bit in preseason when he
struggled to adjust to the pro game (sitting out the 2020 season likely played a part too). But wow, did “Uno” step it up when
the lights came on for real (and imagine his numbers if he hadn’t dropped a few sure touchdown passes along the way). Almost
immediately, Chase proved to be a complete receiver—he can go deep, make the contested catch in traffic, Moss a defensive
back, and take a short pass and tilt the field. The secondary numbers bear out his overall high level of play; 29.8% DVOA on
third downs, fourth in the NFL in YAC, 21.4% DVOA in the red zone. Other teams looked at what Chase unlocked in Cincin-
nati’s offense and raced to copycat, but the success of a once-in-a-half-decade prospect won’t be easily replicated. Now comes
the hard part, in his encore season, as teams will be in full Griddy-prevention mode from Week 1 this time.
340 WIDE RECEIVERS

Chase Claypool Height: 6-4 Weight: 229 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2020/2 (49) Born: 7-Jul-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 PIT 16/6 692 110 62 873 9 9 57% +1.1 7 14.1 14.0 12 5.2 20 +0.6 12 -5.4% 58 68 48 17.6% 52 42%
2021 PIT 15/13 823 106 59 860 2 11 57% -5.9 6 14.6 11.6 38 5.0 22 -0.2 9 -5.2% 65 64 60 18.9% 42 33%
2022 PIT 86 52 704 4 60% 13.5 -2.4%

It’s never a good sign when you are your team’s representative to announce picks on the second day of the draft, you’re on
the team, and they have you read someone who plays your position, right? Claypool struggled with injuries last season. He also
made some flat-out dopey mistakes that got him benched multiple times. More importantly, when he did play, he didn’t have the
same success creating space in the vertical game as he did in 2020. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception had him with a 45%
success rate on nine/go-route targets—you can’t do that when that’s most of your game! Claypool will likely have a chance to
bounce back, and it’s not like the Steelers have been any more accommodating to Diontae Johnson, but his window to become
an NFL star is probably only as wide as him having a successful 2022.

Randall Cobb Height: 5-10 Weight: 192 College: Kentucky Draft: 2011/2 (64) Born: 22-Aug-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DAL 15/6 727 83 55 828 3 4 66% +0.9 10 15.1 9.9 57 6.0 7 +1.5 16 5.4% 33 119 35 15.2% 63 98%
2020 HOU 10/2 369 48 38 441 3 5 79% +3.0 2 11.6 6.7 -- 4.5 -- -0.3 1 15.8% -- 107 -- 14.5% -- 90%
2021 GB 12/3 371 39 28 375 5 9 72% +3.3 0 13.4 7.9 -- 4.9 -- +0.4 5 23.5% -- 117 -- 9.5% -- 82%
2022 GB 73 50 614 5 68% 12.3 7.8%

It’s very easy to joke about Cobb being brought back to Green Bay solely because he is Aaron Rodgers’ friend, but he was
quietly effective last season. Cobb was specifically a weapon on third downs—19 of his 39 targets came on third or fourth
down, an unusually large share. He caught 12 of those targets and converted 10 of them into first downs, making him third on
the team in third/fourth-down conversions as a receiver behind Davante Adams (25) and Allen Lazard (13).
Cobb is not an effective red zone player and hasn’t been for a while. He has produced a negative DVOA in the red zone in
each of the past three seasons, catching just five of his 14 red zone targets last year. Additionally, age has caught up to Cobb,
sapping him of his once-great YAC ability. He no longer has the burst and speed he used to, as evidenced by his steep drop in
broken tackles. Cobb can still be an effective underneath option and safety valve, but don’t expect anything beyond that.

Keelan Cole Height: 6-1 Weight: 194 College: Kentucky Wesleyan Draft: 2017/FA Born: 20-Apr-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 JAX 16/1 380 35 24 361 3 2 69% +2.4 1 15.0 11.0 -- 4.1 -- -0.7 1 24.8% -- 105 -- 6.3% -- 67%
2020 JAX 16/5 785 88 55 642 5 8 63% -1.1 3 11.7 10.9 41 3.2 73 -1.1 5 -1.7% 47 82 43 15.6% 60 90%
2021 NYJ 15/11 557 51 28 449 1 2 55% +1.5 2 16.0 14.7 7 3.0 81 -1.3 0 12.3% 23 102 49 10.3% 88 47%
2022 LV 17 12 154 1 71% 12.8 -0.2%

Cole provided quality depth in the Jets receiving corps, which was desperately needed toward the end of the season after
Elijah Moore and Corey Davis went down with injury. It could be argued that Cole was actually under-utilized in his lone year
in New York: Cole led all receivers on the roster in DYAR and DVOA despite finishing seventh in targets. Cole is a quality
slot add for the Raiders behind Hunter Renfrow. Despite getting relatively similar targets between the slot (25 targets) and out
wide (28), Cole’s 33.9% DVOA in the slot ranked 11th among qualifying wide receivers in 2021. His DVOA was only -3.6%
when lined up wide.

Nico Collins Height: 6-4 Weight: 222 College: Michigan Draft: 2021/3 (89) Born: 19-Mar-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 HOU 14/8 536 60 33 446 1 7 55% -4.0 1 13.5 11.0 49 4.0 44 +0.2 1 -7.7% 68 25 69 14.1% 69 35%
2022 HOU 72 47 614 4 65% 13.1 3.1%
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Collins used his big frame to work the middle of the field, but did so as a mostly outside receiver with 87% of his snaps out
wide. After missing three games with a shoulder injury, Collins returned as the Texans’ No. 2 receiver in Week 6. From that
point on, he only had a 14.3% target share, but tied for the team lead with seven receptions of 20 yards or more. Collins was
a good-early down receiver with positive DVOA and higher average depth of target (13.7 yards on first down, 10.9 on second
down) but when the Texans tried to use him as a possession-type receiver on third down, it didn’t work as well (8.5-yard aDOT
and -51.5% DVOA on 24 passes).

Chris Conley Height: 6-3 Weight: 205 College: Georgia Draft: 2015/3 (76) Born: 25-Oct-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 JAX 16/14 880 90 47 775 5 4 52% -4.4 5 16.5 14.3 14 5.1 17 +1.1 9 -2.7% 50 68 50 15.9% 61 22%
2020 JAX 15/4 439 63 40 471 2 6 63% -0.6 4 11.8 10.3 46 4.5 37 +0.5 4 -9.0% 66 18 70 11.3% 79 48%
2021 HOU 16/10 623 37 22 323 2 1 59% +0.2 2 14.7 9.2 -- 5.7 -- +0.6 4 4.7% -- 50 -- 7.4% -- 68%
2022 HOU 24 15 195 1 64% 12.9 -2.9%

Conley has spent time as an effective intermediate receiver, but that didn’t come with much volume. The volume decreased
even more with the Texans last season despite Conley being on the field quite often. He ran the third-most routes on the team
behind Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins but was targeted on just 11% of his routes with an overall 7.1% team target share.
He re-signed with the Texans in March, but will likely see less playing time in 2022 than he did in 2021. As a bigger outside
receiver, his ideal role was taken over by Collins, who doesn’t seem likely to cede much playing time in Year 2.

Brandin Cooks Height: 5-10 Weight: 183 College: Oregon State Draft: 2014/1 (20) Born: 25-Sep-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAR 14/14 716 72 42 583 2 3 58% +2.5 4 13.9 14.0 20 4.0 44 -1.0 3 0.0% 46 71 49 13.5% 67 63%
2020 HOU 15/15 801 119 81 1150 6 10 68% +6.2 4 14.2 11.8 31 4.2 52 -0.1 4 8.9% 23 207 18 24.1% 17 64%
2021 HOU 16/16 831 134 90 1037 6 6 67% +6.3 2 11.5 11.1 47 3.8 52 -1.1 8 3.5% 45 177 25 28.1% 6 55%
2022 HOU 106 70 875 6 66% 12.5 4.1%

Cooks remains fairly consistent wherever he goes and with whomever his quarterback is. As the No. 1 receiver in Houston,
Cooks had his sixth 1,000-yard receiving season in seven years, setting career-highs in targets and receptions. In 2022, Cooks
will play with the same team for three straight years for just the second time in his career, and with a new two-year extension,
he could make it four years in one city for the first time in 2023. During the 2021 season, Cooks had a 70-30 split lining up out
wide and in the slot, but 55% of his targets came from the slot. Yet Cooks was a better outside receiver (13.8% DVOA) than
he was from the slot (-5.9%).

Amari Cooper Height: 6-1 Weight: 211 College: Alabama Draft: 2015/1 (4) Born: 17-Jun-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DAL 16/16 850 119 79 1189 8 9 66% +6.2 6 15.1 13.1 27 3.0 72 -1.0 6 22.3% 10 324 3 20.6% 34 29%
2020 DAL 16/15 943 130 92 1114 5 12 71% +7.1 5 12.1 8.9 64 4.5 38 +0.3 11 4.7% 34 184 21 21.1% 31 48%
2021 DAL 15/14 835 104 68 865 8 10 65% +5.6 3 12.7 11.1 44 3.4 69 -0.4 15 8.0% 30 179 23 18.8% 45 47%
2022 CLE 102 68 796 4 67% 11.7 -1.9%

For as careful and calculated as Cooper appears to be at his craft—one might even call him meticulous—it’s hard to avoid
the simple fact that he’s just not very good against man coverage. He’s 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, prototype size even if you dock
him for being a couple inches short of a Calvin Johnson. From Week 6 on, Cooper caught just 17 of 34 targets against man for
7.5 yards per target, and had only one play over 35 yards. Yes, he dealt with COVID. Yes, we’re counting some playoff targets.
There’s just something here with his physicality that doesn’t let him be a No. 1 wideout. And the Cowboys are the second team
that has decided that as they moved on from him this offseason in an (admittedly short-sighted) salary cap move. The Browns
reaped the benefits of buying low, and Cooper will be great if Deshaun Watson is on the field at some point. But it’s not hard to
understand where the dissonance comes from.
342 WIDE RECEIVERS

Jamison Crowder Height: 5-9 Weight: 177 College: Duke Draft: 2015/4 (105) Born: 17-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NYJ 16/12 815 122 78 833 6 5 64% -3.4 7 10.7 8.0 72 4.5 34 -0.4 17 -11.8% 66 9 65 24.4% 15 85%
2020 NYJ 12/7 593 89 59 699 6 4 66% +1.8 3 11.8 7.6 78 5.5 13 +1.0 8 -3.2% 50 66 49 25.0% 12 84%
2021 NYJ 12/4 538 70 51 447 2 2 71% -0.5 3 8.8 6.4 89 3.4 67 -0.9 4 -12.3% 77 2 77 16.8% 60 94%
2022 BUF 65 45 482 3 69% 10.7 -2.6%

Crowder has never hit the major receiver benchmarks of 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns in a season. And he has split his sev-
en-year career between Washington and the Jets without his team finishing better than third place in its division since his rookie
year of 2015. That’s about as anonymous as a receiver can be in the NFL. But things could be different for Crowder in Buffalo
in 2022. After leading receivers with 50 or more targets with a 94% slot target rate last season, Crowder is well positioned to
inherit Josh Allen’s slot receiver role that netted Cole Beasley more than 100 targets each of the last three seasons. Crowder
could see the same if he shakes off the soft-tissue injuries that cost him time with the Jets the last two years.

Corey Davis Height: 6-3 Weight: 209 College: Western Michigan Draft: 2017/1 (5) Born: 11-Jan-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TEN 15/11 733 69 43 601 2 3 62% +1.9 3 14.0 12.1 36 5.0 19 +0.8 17 5.4% 34 99 41 17.5% 57 63%
2020 TEN 14/12 718 92 65 984 5 8 71% +6.7 4 15.1 11.9 29 4.5 40 +0.7 4 22.5% 9 261 13 22.3% 26 61%
2021 NYJ 9/9 450 59 34 492 4 4 58% -1.6 5 14.5 13.8 11 3.8 54 -0.1 6 1.2% 51 68 58 19.8% 38 56%
2022 NYJ 66 38 577 3 57% 14.9 -6.1%

Prior to his signing with the Jets, the graph for Corey Davis stock was basically an arrow pointing up and to the right. Ev-
ery year Davis spent with the Titans was a new high in DVOA. That stock peaked in 2020 with a career-high 261 DYAR and
ninth-best DVOA of 22.5%. The Jets bought in at the all-time high, so it’s understandable why Davis has been a bit of a disap-
pointment one year in. Davis played just nine games, and just about all of his stats fell back down to earth. He reverted back to
his pre-Ryan Tannehill days, posting the worst DYAR, yards after catch, yards per game, and catch rate since his rookie year.
Davis is expected to bounce back in 2022, and playing alongside two rookie receivers and working with a rookie quarterback
is some sugar for the medicine that is Davis’ three-year, $37.5-million contract. But this should be a lesson for everyone: be
careful where you invest!

Gabriel Davis Height: 6-2 Weight: 216 College: Central Florida Draft: 2020/4 (128) Born: 1-Apr-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 BUF 16/11 797 62 35 599 7 10 56% -1.3 1 17.1 15.2 6 3.7 60 -0.2 4 10.7% 20 115 32 10.9% 82 52%
2021 BUF 16/4 571 63 35 549 6 14 56% -2.5 7 15.7 13.4 16 3.8 57 +0.3 4 9.2% 29 111 44 10.8% 85 48%
2022 BUF 80 50 752 6 63% 15.0 9.9%

The Bills may have suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round, but sophomore wide receiver Davis
provided a silver lining with his eight catches, 201 yards, and playoff-record four touchdowns. He only caught 35 passes in the
regular season, but Davis checks a lot of boxes for a potential breakout receiver. He has a 9.9% career receiving DVOA. He has
a prominent role in the red zone—over the last two seasons, he leads wide receivers with 50 or more targets in red zone target
rate and expected touchdowns. And Davis, who already saw an increase to 80% snap shares or more last December when Em-
manuel Sanders missed time with a knee injury, has an open path to a No. 2 receiver job with Sanders leaving in free agency.

Stefon Diggs Height: 6-0 Weight: 191 College: Maryland Draft: 2015/5 (146) Born: 29-Nov-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIN 15/15 783 95 63 1130 6 8 67% +9.0 4 17.9 15.2 10 4.7 28 +0.1 12 24.0% 7 272 10 22.9% 20 38%
2020 BUF 16/15 965 166 127 1535 8 10 77% +17.4 5 12.1 10.4 45 3.7 63 -0.5 23 15.8% 16 377 2 29.3% 3 51%
2021 BUF 17/17 977 164 103 1225 10 25 63% +5.2 4 11.9 11.3 41 3.2 77 -1.0 20 0.5% 54 178 24 26.9% 9 33%
2022 BUF 141 95 1120 8 67% 11.8 2.8%
 WIDE RECEIVERS 343

Diggs saw his receiving DVOA decline from 15.8% to 0.5% in step with his quarterback Josh Allen’s regression from 25.9%
to 4.9% passing DVOA from 2020 to 2021. And that mirroring neatly illustrates how important context can be for player pro-
ductivity. Diggs may well have been the same player in 2021 as he was in 2020 when he earned first-team All-Pro honors. He
averaged a nearly identical 10.9 yards per catchable target as his 11.3-yard rate from 2020 based on Sportradar catchability
charting. But Diggs saw his catchable target rate drop from an 81.4% rate in 2020 that was third best among receivers with 50
or more targets to a pedestrian 67.1% last year. For Diggs to rebound statistically, he will likely need Allen to avoid the handful
of poor performances he had in 2021.

Jahan Dotson Height: 5-11 Weight: 184 College: Penn State Draft: 2022/1 (16) Born: 22-Mar-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 WAS 67 41 519 3 61% 12.7 -5.2%

A bit small for an NFL flanker, Dotson uses his suddenness to punish cornerbacks—he displayed several excellent double
moves in college, and the ability to create separation comes naturally to him. The concerns about his size also show up in
contested-catch situations, which will be a problem for him in the NFL without further development. The Commanders sprung
him much earlier than anticipated in the first round, so it’s obvious that he’ll get plenty of early playing time. Ultimately the
player the Washington hope Dotson emulates in the pros is T.Y. Hilton. He has a ways to go to get there, but the separation is
the most important thing, and he has that in spades.

Devin Duvernay Height: 5-11 Weight: 210 College: Texas Draft: 2020/3 (92) Born: 12-Sep-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 BAL 16/3 347 26 20 201 0 0 77% +2.0 1 10.1 6.2 -- 5.9 -- -0.6 3 -14.0% -- -2 -- 6.6% -- 69%
2021 BAL 16/7 603 47 33 272 2 4 70% +0.8 0 8.2 6.0 -- 4.3 -- -1.3 5 -15.1% -- -9 -- 8.4% -- 67%
2022 BAL 58 39 415 3 67% 10.6 -4.7%

Duvernay has proven to be a powerful runner who is tricky to bring down in his two seasons in Baltimore, albeit more as a
return specialist than as a wideout. With the ball in his hands in the open field, he is a handful, as shown by his NFL-best 13.8
yards per punt return in 2021. That performance, along with strong duty on kick returns (just over 24 yards per return, a slight
comedown from his sensational rookie season in that department, when he ripped off a 93-yard touchdown and averaged over
27 a pop), earned Duvernay All-Pro honors and helped propel the Ravens to the top of the special teams DVOA chart.
But the time has come for the former Longhorns wideout to augment his return excellence with some receiving. In fairness,
Double-D enters camp with more career catches (53) than anyone else on the Ravens roster, a number that speaks more about
the roster than it does Duvernay. He was something of a one-year wonder in Austin, with 106 catches as a senior after three
pedestrian seasons, and his returner speed and shiftiness has yet to translate to the slot, where he spends most of his time. Du-
vernay’s cousin is Kyler Murray—perhaps he too should force a trade to the desert, à la Hollywood Brown, to see his wideout
skills maximized.

Bryan Edwards Height: 6-3 Weight: 215 College: South Carolina Draft: 2020/3 (81) Born: 13-Nov-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 LV 12/3 259 15 11 193 1 2 73% +0.7 0 17.5 9.3 -- 7.3 -- +2.3 3 36.6% -- 64 -- 4.0% -- 47%
2021 LV 16/12 811 59 34 571 3 9 58% +0.4 3 16.8 14.4 8 5.6 17 +1.1 6 10.4% 27 112 42 10.7% 86 52%
2022 ATL 53 32 451 2 60% 14.1 -3.4%

Edwards had a chance to become the Raiders’ WR1 when Henry Ruggs was cut and tight end Darren Waller got hurt in late
November. Instead, Edwards toddled along at his usual three-short-catches-over-the-middle rate, ceding all the extra targets to
Zay Jones and Fabian Moreau. The Raiders shipped Edwards off to the Falcons after the draft, and Falcons fans are excited (by
Falcons fan standards) about another tall receiver who has flashed very occasional big-play talent. Raiders fans, meanwhile,
get to turn the page on yet another Mike Mayock draft pick stuck in a permanent gestation cycle. A win-win, in other words.
344 WIDE RECEIVERS

D'Wayne Eskridge Height: 5-9 Weight: 190 College: Western Michigan Draft: 2021/2 (56) Born: 23-Mar-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 SEA 10/0 187 20 10 64 1 4 50% -2.1 0 6.4 13.3 -- 3.2 -- -2.5 0 -41.8% -- -47 -- 7.4% -- 62%
2022 SEA 35 20 233 1 57% 11.7 -19.2%

A concussion knocked the second-round rookie (and Playmaker Score favorite) out of the season opener against the Colts,
and he didn’t return until after Seattle’s bye in Week 9. Even then he didn’t see the field much, playing more than half of Se-
attle’s offensive snaps just one time, and in that game he still failed to catch a pass. Eskridge’s limited targets were an odd mix
of very short completions and very deep incompletions: his average depth of target was 3.2 yards on receptions, but 22.0 yards
on incomplete targets. He was effective as a runner, however, gaining 59 yards on only four carries, each of which gained at
least 7 yards. Eskridge missed practice in December with a foot injury and minicamp with a bad hamstring, which is bad news.
But the Seahawks didn’t make any significant additions at wideout, so Eskridge will have every chance to beat out Freddie
Swain for the third receiver role. If he can’t do it this year, he probably never will.

Mike Evans Height: 6-5 Weight: 231 College: Texas A&M Draft: 2014/1 (7) Born: 21-Aug-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TB 13/13 810 118 67 1157 8 18 57% +1.1 7 17.3 15.7 6 3.8 49 -0.5 3 18.0% 14 301 6 25.1% 13 25%
2020 TB 16/16 857 109 70 1006 13 14 64% +3.7 7 14.4 12.9 22 3.8 59 +0.1 7 25.6% 6 354 4 18.7% 45 39%
2021 TB 16/16 915 114 74 1035 14 13 65% +7.7 3 14.0 13.1 19 3.2 73 -0.5 11 23.9% 6 340 4 16.9% 56 41%
2022 TB 109 74 1002 8 68% 13.5 14.9%

Evans is the only receiver to finish in the top 10 in DYAR in each of the last four seasons. In fact, he has finished in the top
six in each of the last four years, joining a very elite list of receivers—Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Reggie Wayne, and Michael
Thomas—who have been that good for that long. Evans has seen his target share drop over the past three seasons as Chris
Godwin has emerged alongside him, but with Godwin down and Antonio Brown on walkabout over the last bit of the season,
we saw target-hog Evans make a triumphant return. After receiving 16.7% of Tampa Bay’s targets through Week 16, Evans saw
24.0% of them over the last four weeks of the season, including 29.2% in the two playoff games. With no one healthy left in
the receiver corps, Evans was targeted over and over, but he still managed to fight through tight double coverage to put up big
numbers. There’s still no one in the NFL better than Evans at making a contested catch.

Will Fuller Height: 6-0 Weight: 184 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2016/1 (21) Born: 16-Apr-1994 Age: 28 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 HOU 11/11 580 71 49 670 3 9 69% +7.8 4 13.7 14.1 19 4.5 37 -0.5 2 1.8% 39 82 45 20.1% 36 63%
2020 HOU 11/11 577 75 53 879 8 6 71% +6.7 3 16.6 13.1 17 5.5 15 +1.2 3 41.2% 1 326 7 21.4% 29 60%
2021 MIA 2/0 65 8 4 26 0 1 50% -0.7 0 6.5 16.4 -- 2.5 -- -2.2 1 -34.6% -- -14 -- 11.2% -- 38%

Fuller may never have been an ideal fit for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Fuller was top-12 among wide receivers
with 100 or more targets with a 13.5-yard average depth of target on the Texans from 2018 to 2020, but Tagovailoa had the
third-lowest average depth of target in 2021. We’ll never know how it might have worked out since Fuller missed the bulk of
the 2021 season with a broken finger. And given how much injuries have defined his career—he has not played more than 11
games in a season since his rookie year in 2016—Fuller can’t hunt for a better quarterback fit for his skill set in 2022. He may
have to settle for whatever contract he can find. As of this publication, Fuller remains a free agent.

Russell Gage Height: 6-0 Weight: 184 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2018/6 (194) Born: 22-Jan-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ATL 16/4 527 74 49 446 1 3 66% -1.5 4 9.1 7.1 77 3.1 71 -1.5 13 -14.1% 70 -8 70 11.2% 73 76%
2020 ATL 16/8 762 109 72 786 4 10 66% -1.3 9 10.9 8.6 68 3.9 57 -0.4 13 -1.7% 48 93 41 17.9% 49 77%
2021 ATL 14/9 612 94 66 770 4 6 70% +3.6 5 11.7 9.4 69 3.8 56 -0.8 9 1.4% 50 102 50 20.4% 35 72%
2022 TB 83 55 654 4 66% 11.9 -0.6%
 WIDE RECEIVERS 345

Gage was a great pickup for Tampa Bay, a fill-in for Chris Godwin until he gets healthy, and then a solid third receiver after
that. While Gage’s aDOT was just 9.4 yards, he actually was Atlanta’s most valuable deep ball threat in 2021 with a 69.9%
DVOA on targets 20 yards or further downfield—higher than Godwin or Antonio Brown managed in a much healthier offense
in Tampa Bay last season. Gage had 40 DYAR on deep post routes alone; the Buccaneers as a team had a total of -3 DYAR.
Gage’s deep speed is a dynamic the Buccaneers were missing, and he should be good for more than a few explosive deep shots.

Michael Gallup Height: 6-1 Weight: 200 College: Colorado State Draft: 2018/3 (81) Born: 4-Mar-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DAL 14/12 853 113 66 1107 6 5 58% -1.8 10 16.8 12.6 32 5.0 20 +1.1 10 13.5% 19 233 15 22.6% 24 19%
2020 DAL 16/15 1003 105 59 843 5 14 56% -5.1 6 14.3 11.7 32 4.3 48 -0.1 5 -5.7% 60 58 53 17.6% 51 23%
2021 DAL 9/8 498 62 35 445 2 7 56% -2.6 2 12.7 11.8 35 3.5 66 -0.9 1 -3.2% 64 50 67 18.8% 44 22%
2022 DAL 113 75 966 6 66% 12.9 5.9%

Immediately hurt at the start of the season with a calf injury that sent him to IR, Gallup came back in Week 10 and became
a heavy-target player over the next four weeks while Amari Cooper dealt with COVID and CeeDee Lamb missed time with
a concussion. Gallup had settled into a smaller volume role with everyone healthy before tearing his ACL and MCL in Week
17’s loss to the Cardinals. The Cowboys decided they’d rather pay Gallup roughly $12 million a season than pay Cooper $18
million a season, a decision that felt awkward when it happened and feels even worse now that several contracts have come in
well ahead of Cooper’s. Gallup will more than likely not be ready for the season opener—Jerry Jones said he was a “question
mark” for Week 1 in late May—but if he can get back in the swing of things by midseason he should be a high-target player on
a good offense. Whether he or Dalton Schultz seizes the No. 2 role behind CeeDee Lamb is one of the great questions of the
fantasy football season.

Chris Godwin Height: 6-1 Weight: 209 College: Penn State Draft: 2017/3 (84) Born: 27-Feb-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TB 14/14 957 121 86 1333 9 9 71% +11.6 1 15.5 10.6 47 6.7 4 +2.0 19 32.8% 1 415 2 22.5% 25 82%
2020 TB 12/12 675 84 65 840 7 6 77% +9.7 4 12.9 10.2 47 4.3 47 -0.4 6 28.0% 5 267 11 18.0% 48 82%
2021 TB 14/14 833 127 98 1103 5 10 77% +9.6 3 11.3 7.5 81 6.0 9 +0.7 9 10.6% 26 245 11 21.7% 27 82%
2022 TB 134 91 1079 7 68% 11.9 3.0%

There are many, many things Godwin does extremely well, and the Buccaneers will miss him while he’s rehabbing the ACL
he tore in mid-December. He should be back at or near full strength by the postseason at the very latest, and the Buccaneers
are deep enough at receiver to not have to rush him back into action before he’s fully healthy. When they do bring him back,
perhaps they should consider laying off the screen passes. Godwin led the NFL with 35 wide receiver screens last season, but
only managed -7 DYAR on those plays. No other wideout had more than 26 targets on screens, which is odd—while Godwin
has generally been in the top 20 in YAC+, he’s not the sort of player whom you need to scheme up easy touches for. Give him
his curls, slants, and digs and he’ll do you just fine.

Kenny Golladay Height: 6-4 Weight: 213 College: Northern Illinois Draft: 2017/3 (96) Born: 3-Nov-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DET 16/16 957 116 65 1190 11 15 56% +1.0 6 18.3 15.3 9 4.7 30 +0.6 7 18.0% 13 279 9 21.1% 30 45%
2020 DET 5/5 226 32 20 338 2 4 63% +0.4 3 16.9 14.9 -- 1.9 -- -2.3 0 22.0% -- 90 -- 19.1% -- 35%
2021 NYG 14/14 666 76 37 521 0 11 49% -7.2 1 14.1 13.7 12 3.2 75 -0.7 4 -18.7% 86 -37 86 16.8% 58 35%
2022 NYG 81 51 695 3 63% 13.6 -1.7%

“It’s going to be rough. (It’s my) first time in this offense,” a frustrated Golladay said early last season after cameras caught
him yelling at someone on the Giants bench. That someone, according to Golladay, was offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
Golladay’s words were prescient. He hobbled through his first season with the Giants, and though he managed to play in 14
games, he was largely ineffective. Gaining separation has never been his strength, but it was a significant problem last season.
His average distance from the nearest defender at the time of completion or incompletion was 1.7 yards, which ranked 127th
out of 128 qualifying receivers, according to Next Gen Stats. Still, it was a surprise to see him go touchdown-less. He and the
346 WIDE RECEIVERS

Jaguars’ Laviska Shenault were the only players to see at least 75 targets but fail to score. It wasn’t as if he wasn’t getting the
ball in the red zone, either. He saw a team-high 10 targets but caught just one for 5 yards. That probably won’t happen again.
Before 2021, he had caught 19 of 41 red zone targets in his career and scored a touchdown on 13 of them.

A.J. Green Height: 6-4 Weight: 210 College: Georgia Draft: 2011/1 (4) Born: 31-Jul-1988 Age: 34 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 CIN 16/14 820 104 47 523 2 13 45% -11.1 3 11.1 13.5 15 1.8 87 -2.2 5 -33.0% 87 -172 87 18.8% 44 24%
2021 ARI 16/9 887 92 54 848 3 12 59% +1.0 3 15.7 12.1 29 3.4 70 -0.9 11 7.5% 34 148 28 17.0% 55 19%
2022 ARI 58 37 514 3 64% 13.9 3.9%

At the end of Green’s time with the Bengals, he looked absolutely cooked; in 2020, he somehow managed only 523 receiv-
ing yards despite receiving over 100 targets due in large part to a catch rate below 50%. When Green signed a one-year deal
with the Cardinals entering 2021, it did not seem particularly likely that he would end up making any sort of impact. However,
Green stepped into a role as the right outside receiver (the Cardinals like to have their outside receivers stick to one side) and
earned Kyler Murray’s trust fairly quickly. Green frequently captured Murray’s attention in the intermediate area of the field en
route to a top-30 leaguewide finish in receiving DYAR. The question now becomes whether Green can replicate that entering
his age-34 season; he will have plenty of opportunities to produce early in the season with DeAndre Hopkins suspended to start
the year. Arizona is certainly going to need him.

Jalen Guyton Height: 6-1 Weight: 212 College: North Texas Draft: 2019/FA Born: 7-Jun-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAC 3/0 18 2 0 0 0 0 0% -0.6 0 0.0 37.5 -- 0.0 -- +0.0 0 -110.1% -- -12 -- 1.8% -- 50%
2020 LAC 16/9 919 55 28 511 3 8 51% -4.0 6 18.3 16.5 3 6.4 4 +1.3 2 -3.7% 53 39 62 9.2% 85 53%
2021 LAC 16/2 613 48 31 448 3 5 65% +0.9 3 14.5 11.0 48 4.8 26 +0.7 7 18.7% 13 120 40 7.9% 92 48%
2022 LAC 29 20 267 2 69% 13.4 5.6%

Guyton has assumed the old Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem role in Joe Lombardi’s Saints-flavored offense: he’s the
guy who stretches the field and gets five or six bombs per month lobbed in his general direction so Keenan Allen can work
underneath. Guyton caught 44- and 59-yard touchdown passes against the Giants and Bengals but was otherwise quiet for most
of the season. He received just seven deep (20 or more air yards) targets last year after being targeted deep 19 times in 2020.
The Chargers offered Guyton a one-year tender, so he remains in the team’s plans, but Josh Palmer has emerged as the No. 3
receiver, so expect Guyton to stay in his highly specialized, too-unpredictable-for-fantasy role.

KJ Hamler Height: 5-9 Weight: 176 College: Penn State Draft: 2020/2 (46) Born: 8-Jul-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 DEN 13/4 521 56 30 381 3 2 54% -6.5 6 12.7 10.6 44 4.1 55 -0.6 6 -20.3% 82 -33 80 12.8% 76 88%
2021 DEN 3/2 88 10 5 74 0 0 50% -0.2 1 14.8 20.1 -- 3.2 -- -1.1 0 -18.8% -- -5 -- 10.8% -- 60%
2022 DEN 41 25 306 3 61% 12.2 -4.5%

Hamler suffered a simultaneous ACL injury and dislocated hip in Week 3 of last season. As of May, he was reportedly on pace
to participate in training camp. He told reporters that he wants to play the “Tyler Lockett role” for Russell Wilson, and it’s great
to have a dream, but Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick are all ahead of Hamler in line for targets. Hamler dropped
six passes as a rookie in 2020 and was scratching for targets when he got hurt last season. He possesses the speed and elusive-
ness to be an effective slot weapon, but Hamler may be forced to settle for a WR4 role in an offense with many mouths to feed.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 347

Mecole Hardman Height: 5-10 Weight: 187 College: Georgia Draft: 2019/2 (56) Born: 12-Mar-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 KC 16/5 479 41 26 538 6 0 63% +1.5 1 20.7 11.3 -- 11.2 -- +5.3 12 44.1% -- 181 -- 7.6% -- 60%
2020 KC 16/8 499 62 41 560 4 3 66% -0.4 7 13.7 10.6 43 7.0 3 +1.5 6 6.4% 28 90 42 10.1% 83 65%
2021 KC 17/8 623 83 59 693 2 3 71% +1.0 2 11.7 7.4 82 8.5 2 +2.0 13 5.2% 41 120 39 12.9% 77 71%
2022 KC 82 55 691 4 67% 12.6 1.0%

Three receptions of 44, 49, and 53 yards accounted for 21% of Hardman’s receiving yardage last year. Without those recep-
tions, his yards-per-catch would drop from 11.7 to 9.8. Hardman also caught 26 passes for 241 yards on 31 targets on passes of
10 or fewer air yards AND to the left side of the field. That’s a rather rigid screens-and-flats niche that Hardman will no longer
have the luxury of occupying with Tyreek Hill gone. Hardman has the talent to take on a much larger role in the Chiefs offense,
but the fact that the Chiefs loaded up on so many receivers in the draft and free agency suggests that they do not trust him to
do so.

Deonte Harty Height: 5-6 Weight: 170 College: Assumption Draft: 2019/FA Born: 4-Dec-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NO 14/1 68 6 6 24 0 0 100% +0.8 0 4.0 -2.2 -- 6.2 -- -3.1 5 -47.1% -- -14 -- 1.2% -- 83%
2020 NO 1/0 169 25 20 186 1 2 80% +2.4 2 9.3 5.0 -- 6.4 -- +0.2 13 1.3% -- 29 -- 9.0% -- 54%
2021 NO 13/1 298 59 36 570 3 1 61% -1.1 3 15.8 10.3 58 6.8 6 +1.8 7 17.3% 16 132 34 16.4% 62 60%
2022 NO 15 9 118 1 60% 13.1 -13.8%

Harty (née Deonte Harris) showed legitimate promise as a deep threat last season, with long touchdowns against Green Bay
and Washington and a pair of deep catches against Tennessee. He likely won’t get to show much of it this year, with Michael
Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry all cutting in line in front of him, but the Saints valued him enough to use a second-
round tender to keep him in town. Harty will have to fight off Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith for the fourth receiver
slot, but should find at least some role on offense in 2022.

Rashard Higgins Height: 6-1 Weight: 198 College: Colorado State Draft: 2016/5 (172) Born: 7-Oct-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CLE 10/1 177 11 4 55 1 2 36% -2.6 0 13.8 10.5 -- 2.3 -- -0.6 0 -27.0% -- -11 -- 3.3% -- 64%
2020 CLE 13/6 502 52 37 599 4 6 71% +7.1 0 16.2 14.1 11 2.1 85 -1.4 1 29.4% 3 176 23 14.1% 68 33%
2021 CLE 15/4 509 47 24 275 1 1 51% -4.0 3 11.5 11.7 -- 1.7 -- -2.1 0 -16.9% -- -16 -- 10.8% -- 65%
2022 CAR 25 15 184 1 60% 12.3 -14.7%

The other wide receiver nicknamed “Hollywood” has spent the last five years bouncing between double-digit DVOA and
double-digit negative DVOA, which means he’s due for good season. That’s just math. The decline of Baker Mayfield explains
some, but not all, of Higgins drop-off in 2021. Higgins’ catchable pass rate fell from 78.8% to 72.3% last year, and his yards
before reception fell to a career-low 9.5; he was fed a diet of shorter, less-catchable passes than he was in his successful 2020.
Then again, he only managed to pull in about 70% of his catchable passes last season, as opposed to 90% in 2020, and didn’t
turn those short passes into big gains or first downs at the same rate he did a year before. He could bounce back with a more
consistent quarterback in a functioning offense, so it’s too bad he went to Carolina.

Tee Higgins Height: 6-4 Weight: 215 College: Clemson Draft: 2020/2 (33) Born: 18-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 CIN 16/14 805 108 67 908 6 10 62% +1.8 7 13.6 11.6 34 4.6 34 +0.4 7 3.9% 37 142 26 19.0% 41 56%
2021 CIN 14/14 711 110 74 1091 6 12 67% +5.3 4 14.7 12.4 26 3.9 49 -0.0 12 25.0% 4 334 5 25.4% 15 37%
2022 CIN 119 77 1099 7 65% 14.3 8.9%

Higgins doesn’t have memes or a hot touchdown dance step or a throwback connection with his quarterback—he just has
serious game, as proved by having even better efficiency numbers than his more heralded teammate Ja’Marr Chase. (Higgins
348 WIDE RECEIVERS

sat out a couple of games with a shoulder injury but still bested Chase in DYAR, our compiling stat.) Higgins remained stalwart
in the postseason, with 96-, 103-, and 100-yard games in the biggest contests in franchise history since well before Higgy was
born. It’s easy to say he benefits from Chase lining up across the field, but the inverse is also true. The pair work effortlessly
in tandem—Chase is more explosive, while Higgins can outleap almost any defender and has the wider catch radius. Having
such a young, supremely talented wideout duo may induce salary cap headaches in a couple of years, but for now, enjoy the
ride, Bengals fans.

Tyreek Hill Height: 5-10 Weight: 185 College: West Alabama Draft: 2016/5 (165) Born: 1-Mar-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 KC 12/12 567 89 58 860 7 4 65% +4.6 3 14.8 12.9 30 4.8 24 -0.2 13 22.4% 9 237 12 20.9% 31 58%
2020 KC 15/15 901 135 87 1276 15 15 64% +3.3 10 14.7 12.9 23 5.0 26 +0.4 21 17.3% 14 322 8 23.4% 22 74%
2021 KC 17/16 867 159 111 1239 9 10 70% +8.3 9 11.2 10.7 55 4.0 45 -0.8 20 11.6% 25 313 7 25.0% 17 71%
2022 MIA 112 74 904 6 66% 12.2 2.0%

Hill has always been a complementary top target for the big-armed Patrick Mahomes. Hill leads all receivers with 45 catches
and 18 touchdowns on deep targets thrown 20 or more yards in the air since 2018. And he led receivers with 91 DYAR on
broken plays in 2021. The question is whether Hill fits with his new quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa threw just 30
deep passes in 2021, 46 fewer than Mahomes. And Tagovailoa threw just 10 passes on broken plays last season, 56 fewer than
Mahomes. If the connection works, it will likely be because Hill transformed his game to catch shorter passes and produce
more yards after the catch. Hill has finished outside the top 20 at his position with between 4.0 and 5.0 average YAC the last
three seasons. But he finished in the top 10 with 6.1 YAC in both 2017 and 2018 and has the exceptional speed that should fit
perfectly in Mike McDaniel’s presumedly Shanahan-inspired offensive scheme. Hill hit a top 20 ballcarrier speed of 21.4 mph
on a 33-yard carry last season according to Next Gen Stats. Hill’s KUBIAK projection includes 23 carries for 188 yards and a
touchdown (42.7% DVOA).

T.Y. Hilton Height: 5-10 Weight: 183 College: Florida International Draft: 2012/3 (92) Born: 14-Nov-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 IND 10/10 485 68 45 501 5 4 66% +0.5 2 11.1 10.1 55 4.7 26 -0.2 4 1.6% 40 76 47 22.7% 22 52%
2020 IND 15/15 688 93 56 762 5 13 60% -1.1 3 13.6 12.9 21 3.5 65 -0.7 3 5.7% 30 138 27 19.5% 38 40%
2021 IND 10/9 338 37 23 331 3 5 62% +0.2 0 14.4 12.9 -- 3.1 -- -0.9 3 14.5% -- 79 -- 12.2% -- 30%

Hilton’s issues in 2021 included a quad injury and a concussion but he was still effective when he took the field for the Colts.
He’s not worth starting at this point and he’s not going to get you much yardage after the catch but he can still get open with
his intelligence and technique. Then again, he’s at that age where one more lost step is going to make that no longer the case.
Reports say Hilton does want to play somewhere in 2022 and there have been whispers about him returning to Indianapolis but
nothing concrete as we go to press. Frank Reich told reporters the Colts would “see how things play out with T.Y.”

DeAndre Hopkins Height: 6-1 Weight: 212 College: Clemson Draft: 2013/1 (27) Born: 6-Jun-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 HOU 15/15 1000 150 104 1165 7 11 69% +7.5 5 11.2 10.1 54 3.7 54 -1.0 17 6.2% 31 224 17 30.8% 3 52%
2020 ARI 16/16 1044 160 115 1407 6 11 72% +9.1 1 12.2 9.3 58 4.5 36 -0.2 26 3.4% 38 207 19 29.9% 2 29%
2021 ARI 10/10 560 64 42 572 8 11 66% +7.6 2 13.6 12.6 23 3.3 71 -0.6 7 23.9% 7 191 19 19.6% 40 24%
2022 ARI 86 59 739 6 69% 12.5 9.1%

Hopkins missed significant time due to hamstring and knee injuries in 2021 and therefore missed out on being named to one
of the two All-Pro teams (Associated Press and Pro Football Writers) for the first time since 2016. Prior to this past year, Hop-
kins had never missed a non-Week 17 game, but we are now going to see him miss substantial time in back-to-back seasons
because of a six-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs to start the 2022 campaign. Hopkins has played a vital role
in the Arizona offense since joining the team in 2020, lining up as the left outside receiver and serving as a vital safety blanket
for Kyler Murray when he earns one-on-one matchups. Hopkins’ importance to the offense was felt most strongly when the
Cardinals effectively replaced him with former undrafted free agent Antoine Wesley in the same role. Needless to say, Arizona
 WIDE RECEIVERS 349

was not nearly as efficient without Hopkins attracting extra attention, and that likely played a major role in the team’s offensive
issues down the stretch. With Hopkins slated to miss a sizable chunk of the upcoming season, the Cardinals are going to have
to come up with a better plan for how to function without him, which may sadly become a more common occurrence as he ages
and potentially becomes more susceptible to injury.

Adam Humphries Height: 5-11 Weight: 195 College: Clemson Draft: 2015/FA Born: 24-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TEN 12/3 390 47 37 374 2 2 79% +4.3 1 10.1 7.5 -- 3.2 -- -1.5 4 11.7% -- 84 -- 14.4% -- 98%
2020 TEN 7/1 227 35 23 228 2 2 66% +0.7 2 9.9 9.6 -- 2.0 -- -1.9 0 -5.8% -- 18 -- 16.8% -- 89%
2021 WAS 17/11 658 62 41 383 0 3 66% -3.2 2 9.3 6.9 85 3.9 48 -1.0 5 -15.1% 83 -11 82 11.6% 83 89%

This is what happens when you build the entire offense out of ALEX. Humphries averaged a meager 6.1 yards per target,
cracking more than 44 yards just once in a game all season. He was a Ryan Fitzpatrick-favored target in training camp and the
switch to backup Taylor Heinicke likely hurt his chances to contribute more. Humphries was unsigned as we went to press and
hadn’t even taken a free-agent visit as far as we know. He barely played special teams snaps in either of the last two seasons but
might have a better shot of cracking a roster if he was willing to do returns.

DeSean Jackson Height: 5-10 Weight: 175 College: California Draft: 2008/2 (49) Born: 1-Dec-1986 Age: 36 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 PHI 3/3 67 10 9 159 2 1 90% +2.7 1 17.7 14.1 -- 1.7 -- -2.6 1 41.6% -- 47 -- 9.6% -- 64%
2020 PHI 5/5 179 26 14 236 1 1 54% -0.7 2 16.9 16.6 -- 4.6 -- +0.1 0 -6.9% -- 12 -- 14.4% -- 35%
2021 2TM 16/4 303 34 20 454 2 1 59% +2.5 1 22.7 19.9 -- 8.8 -- +3.8 1 21.2% -- 98 -- 6.3% -- 63%

Jackson caught three passes for 102 yards and a touchdown, drawing a pass interference penalty to set up another touchdown,
in the Raiders’ Thanksgiving upset/penalty festival against the Cowboys. Otherwise, it was a quiet year for the now 35-year-old
deep threat, whom the Rams swapped out in favor of Odell Beckham Jr. in midseason. Jackson said before the draft that he is
mulling retirement but would play in 2022 if paired with an elite quarterback. There’s a chance that the Bills or Buccaneers
might come a-callin’ for a receiver who can still threaten safeties with vertical routes by catching approximately one bomb per
month. Even if they do, Jackson is well past the point of fantasy usefulness.

Justin Jefferson Height: 6-1 Weight: 202 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2020/1 (22) Born: 16-Jun-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 MIN 16/14 886 125 88 1400 7 10 70% +9.1 4 15.9 11.9 30 5.1 23 +0.6 15 25.5% 7 373 3 26.2% 7 59%
2021 MIN 17/17 1014 167 108 1616 10 17 65% +9.7 10 15.0 12.7 21 4.5 32 -0.4 6 18.9% 12 416 3 29.3% 4 47%
2022 MIN 156 100 1451 10 64% 14.5 10.9%

Jefferson is as complete a receiver as there is in the NFL right now. Purely from a route-tree perspective, few can rival Jeffer-
son. He is as lethal on deep crossers and posts as he is on sharp in-breakers or underneath YAC routes. There is no route he can’t
run and no alignment he can’t do it from, and the numbers back that up. Jefferson ranked in the DYAR top five on out routes,
dig routes, and go/fly routes, a perfect trio of routes to highlight short, intermediate, and deep production. Moreover, Jefferson
stepped up on third downs last season. He was solid there as a rookie, but skyrocketed with a 35.4% DVOA while operating
on a very aggressive 15.8-yard average depth of target. Jefferson was asked to run the toughest routes beyond the sticks to bail
the offense out, and he often did. Part of that is Jefferson’s ability to get open, but he is also a magnet for the ball, whether that
means making an acrobatic grab on the sideline or a tough catch in traffic. On top of all of his receiving excellence, Jefferson is
an effective blocker due to his length, strength, and chippy attitude, all of which are an odd watch given his skinny, lanky frame.
350 WIDE RECEIVERS

Van Jefferson Height: 6-2 Weight: 197 College: Florida Draft: 2020/2 (57) Born: 26-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 LAR 16/0 256 31 19 220 1 1 61% -0.5 1 11.6 11.3 -- 2.4 -- -1.6 2 -12.9% -- -1 -- 5.4% -- 58%
2021 LAR 17/17 875 89 50 802 6 11 56% -4.4 6 16.0 13.6 13 4.4 35 -0.2 5 -1.1% 58 84 53 14.8% 64 58%
2022 LAR 60 39 545 4 65% 14.0 8.3%

We don’t have the analytics to measure this kind of thing yet, but has anyone considered the possibility that Jefferson might
be a werewolf? For about 30 days a month, he played like a normal human, lost in the shuffle on a loaded team and forgotten
about after the starting lineups were introduced. But on that other day, he briefly became a terror, catching one pass 40-plus
yards downfield in each of September, October (on Halloween, the perfect time for a lycanthrope to prowl the earth undetected),
November, and December. That tied him with his Minnesota namesake Justin for most receptions on 40-yard bombs. Those
four plays totaled 266 yards, nearly one-third of Jefferson’s total on the season. He had negative DYAR on passes thrown less
than 40 yards downfield, a dreadful statistic for the third wideout in a powerful offense and a sign of how Jefferson tended to
disappear for weeks at a time. It was a similar story in the postseason: one catch for 41 yards against Arizona, eight catches for
61 yards in the next three games. Jefferson is still the third wideout behind Cooper Kupp and free-agent addition Allen Robin-
son, but the Rams need him to make plays more often than the full moon rises.

Jauan Jennings Height: 6-3 Weight: 209 College: Tennessee Draft: 2020/7 (217) Born: 10-Jul-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 SF 16/1 337 38 24 282 5 3 63% -0.5 4 11.8 9.3 -- 4.3 -- +0.3 5 2.2% -- 44 -- 8.0% -- 87%
2022 SF 48 28 339 2 58% 12.1 -13.3%

Jennings saw the first game action of his career in 2021 and was playing about half the offensive snaps by year’s end, slot-
ting in as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. On a team like the 49ers that frequently uses a
fullback, the No. 3 receiver is naturally going to have a smaller role, but Jennings’ run-blocking ability should keep him firmly
in the rotation for playing time even when he is not getting the ball. While he was not that involved in the passing game, he did
make some key catches for the 49ers on high-leverage downs and in the red zone, which is another good way to endear yourself
to an offensive coaching staff. We should not expect explosive receiving performances from Jennings this year, but do not be
surprised if he pops up in a critical moment to make a big block or find a hole in a zone defense for a third-down conversion
with opponents more focused on the likes of Samuel and George Kittle.

Jerry Jeudy Height: 6-1 Weight: 192 College: Alabama Draft: 2020/1 (15) Born: 24-Apr-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 DEN 16/14 805 113 52 856 3 8 46% -13.3 13 16.5 13.7 13 5.0 25 +0.4 13 -22.9% 84 -92 86 21.4% 30 47%
2021 DEN 10/5 412 56 38 467 0 0 68% +3.0 3 12.3 10.8 52 4.7 29 -0.3 7 0.0% 57 53 66 18.4% 46 88%
2022 DEN 103 63 840 6 61% 13.3 -0.6%

Jeudy was arrested in May for misdemeanor domestic tampering but quickly released on bond; Mike Klis of the Denver Post
reported that, per police, there was “no act of violence,” and that the female victim stated in court that she did not feel threat-
ened. The incident is probably resolved.
Jeudy missed six games with an ankle injury and a seventh with COVID in 2021. He was often the Broncos’ top target when
available, but “top target” only gets a guy so far when Drew Lock is his quarterback and Pat Shurmur is calling the plays. Jeudy
could break out with Russell Wilson throwing him the ball, but he’s part of a crowded receiving corps and, like the rest of the
Broncos receivers, is a frequent flyer on the “could break out” list.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 351

Diontae Johnson Height: 5-10 Weight: 181 College: Toledo Draft: 2019/3 (66) Born: 5-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 PIT 16/12 666 91 59 680 5 2 64% +2.6 5 11.5 9.6 62 5.2 16 +0.2 22 -8.9% 63 26 61 18.6% 48 33%
2020 PIT 15/13 733 144 88 923 7 10 61% -7.9 15 10.5 8.1 73 4.5 39 -0.6 17 -19.1% 79 -73 84 23.3% 23 27%
2021 PIT 16/14 987 169 107 1161 8 9 63% -2.6 7 10.9 8.6 71 4.9 23 -0.1 28 -7.6% 67 68 57 27.8% 7 19%
2022 PIT 121 76 852 5 63% 11.2 -9.3%

The Steelers are taking it slowly with Johnson, but it doesn’t make much sense to us from the outside. Per Matt Harmon’s
Reception Perception, Johnson had a 98th percentile success rate against zone coverage last year. He’s elite at separating from
cornerbacks. He’s great on the entire route tree. He’s not exactly sized as a prototypical outside receiver, but he made progress
on his drops last year and that’s about the only ding you can put on him at this point. Johnson had a brief holdout at non-
mandatory OTAs, but ultimately has no leverage to get the Steelers to make a contract offer as he enters the final year of his
rookie deal. He has said that he’d love to stay. It sure doesn’t seem like the Steelers are as interested in that outcome as he is.

Olabisi Johnson Height: 6-0 Weight: 203 College: Colorado State Draft: 2019/7 (247) Born: 17-Mar-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIN 16/6 547 45 31 294 3 8 69% +3.0 1 9.5 9.4 -- 2.2 -- -1.6 1 0.9% -- 49 -- 10.2% -- 61%
2020 MIN 16/3 239 19 14 189 0 0 74% +1.8 0 13.5 11.3 -- 3.5 -- -0.2 3 18.0% -- 45 -- 3.9% -- 37%
2022 MIN 13 9 110 1 69% 12.2 -4.4%

Johnson missed the 2021 season with a torn ACL, stripping him of his chance to make a statement in Year 3. Last year may
have been the perfect opportunity for him, too, because he is best as an outside receiver, allowing Justin Jefferson and Adam
Thielen to go back and forth from the slot to the other outside receiver position. That said, Johnson had fallen out of favor in
2020. In 2019, Johnson was a steady rotational player, but by 2020, he was firmly a backup. He started the first two games
while Jefferson found his footing, then was promptly put on the backburner and started just one more game in an emergency,
snagging seven catches in a surprisingly close 28-27 win over the Panthers. Johnson didn’t earn any red zone targets in 2020
either. When Johnson is on the field, he is best at attacking the short to intermediate range on timing routes, taking advantage
of his steady route-running and reliable hands. Johnson has very little juice, though, so using him down the field or on YAC-
centered routes does not make much sense. We’ll see where Johnson falls in the pecking order for 2022, especially with K.J.
Osborn in the fold now.

Tyler Johnson Height: 6-2 Weight: 205 College: Minnesota Draft: 2020/5 (161) Born: 25-Aug-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 TB 14/3 265 17 12 169 2 4 71% +1.3 0 14.1 9.9 -- 6.0 -- +1.9 2 24.4% -- 50 -- 3.1% -- 59%
2021 TB 17/3 612 55 36 360 0 3 65% -1.8 4 10.0 7.9 79 3.8 51 -1.1 4 -19.9% 87 -30 85 7.6% 93 65%
2022 TB 17 11 129 1 65% 11.7 -12.4%

Johnson’s rookie season showed a lot of promise—promise that was not delivered on in 2021. Johnson was forced into
the primary slot receiver role by the end of the season, but failed to make any sort of impact. The Buccaneers appeared to be
actively game-planning around him at points. He received no targets in the Week 15 win over the Panthers despite playing on
54% of the team’s snaps. Even when he did get the ball thrown his way, he was negative in both YAC+ and plus/minus. There’s
hope he was just in Bruce Arians’ doghouse and could see a bigger role with Arians no longer on the field, but it’s telling that
the Buccaneers’ official website forgot to even mention Johnson when listing competitors for the No. 4 receiver role in their
minicamp preview.

Julio Jones Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Alabama Draft: 2011/1 (6) Born: 8-Feb-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ATL 15/15 834 157 99 1394 6 11 63% +4.5 5 14.1 12.6 33 3.5 61 -0.7 10 11.6% 21 299 7 25.6% 11 49%
2020 ATL 9/9 468 68 51 771 3 8 75% +8.0 2 15.1 11.4 36 4.5 35 +0.4 7 29.8% 2 231 16 20.3% 34 57%
2021 TEN 10/10 393 48 31 434 1 5 65% +1.6 1 14.0 12.1 -- 3.6 -- -0.9 7 -1.1% -- 45 -- 15.3% -- 65%
352 WIDE RECEIVERS

So, what exactly is Julio Jones at this point? His final seasons spent with the Falcons included limited practice time to keep
his body fresh, but he was able to produce on game day. That didn’t happen with the Titans, where injuries kept him off the field
and made him look sluggish on it. Jones continued to deal with the hamstring injuries that had hampered him throughout the
2020 season. Jones could potentially enter the late-career Roger Clemens track, signing with a contender midseason to keep his
body fresh and limit the wear and tear through camp and early-season games.

Marvin Jones Height: 6-2 Weight: 198 College: California Draft: 2012/5 (166) Born: 12-Mar-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DET 13/11 837 91 62 779 9 9 68% +6.0 5 12.6 13.2 25 1.7 80 -2.1 6 11.8% 20 180 24 20.6% 33 66%
2020 DET 16/16 942 115 76 978 9 13 66% +4.4 6 12.9 13.0 20 2.6 83 -1.3 8 12.3% 18 235 15 21.0% 32 67%
2021 JAX 17/16 980 120 73 832 4 16 61% +1.5 2 11.4 12.2 28 1.6 93 -2.2 4 -6.1% 66 63 61 20.8% 33 48%
2022 JAX 82 53 624 4 65% 11.8 -3.9%

Jones was comfortable with a role as one of the few grownups in the room after years under Matt Patricia in Detroit, so he
enjoyed a quietly productive season amid the Urban Meyer chaos. Jones ceased being a true deep threat circa 2018, but he’s
an effective boundary receiver (45-538-3 on 73 targets along the left or right sidelines, per Sports Info Solutions) who can be
counted upon on third downs (17 catches, 17 first downs on 28 third/fourth down targets). Jones has little fantasy upside at this
point and will see his target share dip after the Jaguars offensive spending spree, but he could prove invaluable as a locker room
leader and Trevor Lawrence security blanket.

Velus Jones Height: 6-0 Weight: 200 College: Tennessee Draft: 2022/3 (71) Born: 11-May-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 CHI 39 24 303 2 62% 12.6 -8.0%

Jones is a wide receiver in theory but a return man in practice. As a receiver, Jones was efficient by his final year at Tennessee,
but the volume was never there, which brings about the question of whether Jones was just being fed favorable targets. On film,
that rings relatively true as Jones was often used on simple slants, screens, and go balls in the Volunteers’ offense. He wasn’t
asked to take on a full route tree, nor a true No. 1 workload. Josh Heupel’s offense is partly to blame, but Jones also looked
to be an erratic route-runner, often failing to keep himself in control when tasked with anything other than simple iso routes.
Jones is electric with the ball, though, and that’s highlighted by his first-down rate. Only Nevada’s Romeo Doubs had a higher
first-down rate on receptions than Jones in the 2022 draft class. Jones’ speed alone is enough to be a threat, but he also has great
short-area burst and a surprising amount of physicality to him, when he wants to bring it out. The plan for Jones should be some-
thing along the lines of what the 49ers did with Brandon Aiyuk, which shouldn’t be too hard to fit into Luke Getsy’s offense.

Zay Jones Height: 6-2 Weight: 200 College: East Carolina Draft: 2017/2 (37) Born: 30-Mar-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 2TM 15/9 643 45 27 216 0 4 60% -1.3 1 8.0 10.8 -- 2.9 -- -1.7 0 -38.6% -- -91 -- 9.3% -- 65%
2020 LV 16/2 288 20 14 154 1 3 70% -0.4 2 11.0 7.1 -- 4.6 -- -0.5 3 -9.9% -- 4 -- 3.7% -- 79%
2021 LV 17/9 640 70 47 546 1 6 67% +3.9 0 11.6 14.7 6 3.6 61 -1.5 6 5.8% 39 102 48 11.7% 82 57%
2022 JAX 68 41 493 3 60% 12.0 -9.6%

Jones caught 14 passes in the first three months of the season, then became the Raiders’ top target in their final five weeks,
catching 30 passes on 42 targets for 289 yards and zero touchdowns (9.6 yards per catch) in the final five games, when Darren
Waller was injured and Henry Ruggs long gone. Those unimpressive late-season totals may explain why Davante Adams is now
in Las Vegas and Jones is in Jacksonville, though they raise even more questions about just how the heck the Raiders reached
the playoffs.
Jones was 6-of-17 with a couple of DPIs on 20-plus-yard targets from Week 10 on, when the Raiders needed all the downfield
threats they could muster, so it’s not clear what Trent Baalke thinks Doug Pederson is going to do with him. Jones has gotten
incrementally better since his disappointing debut as a second-round draftnik darling in 2017; maybe Baalke spent $24 million
on the off chance that Jones is slow-roasting into Michael Crabtree.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 353

Christian Kirk Height: 5-11 Weight: 200 College: Texas A&M Draft: 2018/2 (47) Born: 18-Nov-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ARI 13/13 804 108 68 709 3 6 63% +1.6 2 10.4 10.7 46 4.2 40 -0.9 8 -5.1% 55 67 51 25.9% 9 52%
2020 ARI 14/10 781 79 48 621 6 10 61% +3.5 3 12.9 12.0 28 3.6 64 -0.9 2 -5.5% 59 46 59 16.9% 53 26%
2021 ARI 17/11 893 101 77 982 5 10 74% +13.4 4 12.8 12.0 31 3.0 83 -1.5 6 23.2% 8 286 9 17.6% 52 80%
2022 JAX 105 68 824 5 65% 12.1 -1.5%

Christian Kirk will be just fine. He’ll play a Nelson Agholor-esque go-to slot guy role in the Press Taylor/Doug Pederson of-
fense, gobbling up lots of short RPO passes. His contract is Shad Khan’s problem, not ours: the Jaguars aren’t exactly teeming
with young veterans deserving of hefty second contracts, and the money Trent Baalke showered over Kirk had to go some-
where. The NFL wide receiver market will survive the Baalke Money Supervolcano of 2022 as well; nature was beginning to
heal itself by the time Terry McLaurin signed for more money than Kirk but less than Davante Adams/Tyreek Hill in late June.
The lid will pop off the salary cap over the next few years, anyway; Kirk’s loopy contract just pushed receiver salaries over $25
million annually a year or so early. And thus the consequences for dippy decisions like Baalke-type executives are minimized
and good-not-great players enjoy long, lucrative careers for ordinary-at-best teams. Amen.

Cooper Kupp Height: 6-2 Weight: 208 College: Eastern Washington Draft: 2017/3 (69) Born: 15-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAR 16/14 905 134 94 1161 10 7 70% +4.4 5 12.4 7.3 76 5.7 11 +1.0 12 7.1% 30 205 18 22.0% 27 92%
2020 LAR 15/12 842 124 92 974 3 5 74% +6.4 2 10.6 6.5 83 5.7 10 +0.8 24 -0.8% 45 118 29 23.6% 21 90%
2021 LAR 17/17 1024 191 145 1947 16 14 76% +17.3 6 13.4 8.6 72 5.8 12 +0.9 22 27.6% 3 618 1 31.9% 3 80%
2022 LAR 168 115 1506 12 68% 13.1 12.4%

The deeper you dig into Kupp’s 2021 accomplishments from Week 1 to the Super Bowl, the more impressive his season
becomes. It starts with his DYAR record. We have advanced data going back to 1981 now, four decades of pro football, but
nobody can match Kupp’s DYAR totals from last year.

Most Single-Season Receiving DYAR, WRs, Single Season, 1981-2021

Year Name Team DYAR DVOA Tgt Rec Yards TD C% Yd/Rec Fum
2021 Cooper Kupp LAR 618 27.6% 191 145 1,947 16 75.9% 13.4 0
1995 Michael Irvin DAL 591 30.6% 165 111 1,603 10 67.3% 14.4 1
2007 Randy Moss NE 568 29.2% 160 98 1,482 23 61.3% 15.1 0
2011 Calvin Johnson DET 565 31.6% 158 96 1,680 16 60.8% 17.5 1
1989 Jerry Rice SF 563 45.1% 129 82 1,483 17 63.6% 18.1 0
2014 Antonio Brown PIT 554 25.7% 181 129 1,697 13 71.3% 13.2 1
1986 Stanley Morgan NE 544 40.1% 135 84 1,492 10 62.2% 17.8 0
2019 Michael Thomas NO 538 23.9% 185 149 1,727 9 80.5% 11.6 1
2001 Marvin Harrison IND 534 28.2% 164 109 1,524 15 66.5% 14.0 0
2011 Jordy Nelson GB 520 52.9% 96 68 1,263 15 70.8% 18.6 0
2015 Antonio Brown PIT 517 19.7% 193 136 1,841 10 70.5% 13.5 1
1994 Jerry Rice SF 516 29.5% 150 112 1,499 13 74.7% 13.4 1

Kupp then went and added 180 more DYAR in the playoffs. His 33 catches set a new record for a single postseason, and his
478 yards and six touchdown catches put him second in those categories. (Larry Fitzgerald bests him with 546 yards and seven
touchdowns in 2008.) Between the regular season and playoffs, that’s 178 catches (22 more than the next-highest seasonal total)
for 2,425 yards (nobody else has even 2,000) and 22 touchdowns (second behind Randy Moss’ 24 in 2007). Yes, some of this is
schedule inflation—Fitzgerald and Moss never had the chance to play 21 games in a season—but the fact remains that nobody has
ever combined volume and efficiency like Kupp. And it’s not as if he was padding his stats in blowout wins, either. When the Rams
were tied or losing in the second half, his regular-season DVOA rose to 35.3%. His numbers in those scenarios in the playoffs: 13
catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns, with 1 (one) incomplete target, plus a 3-yard DPI, in less than 60 minutes of game time.
Kupp is also an excellent blocker, regularly motioning into an H-back position and pinning edge rushers inside as his quarterback
rolls to the sideline. About the only thing Kupp can’t do is throw—after his air-mailed attempt to a wide-open Matthew Stafford in
the Super Bowl, Kupp is now 0-for-4 passing in his career. So there’s room for improvement there.
354 WIDE RECEIVERS

CeeDee Lamb Height: 6-2 Weight: 198 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2020/1 (17) Born: 8-Apr-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 DAL 16/14 730 111 74 935 5 10 67% +0.3 9 12.6 9.5 57 4.2 51 -0.7 6 -3.8% 54 78 46 17.9% 50 94%
2021 DAL 16/13 882 120 79 1102 6 9 66% +4.6 7 13.9 10.2 60 5.6 18 +0.8 22 7.9% 31 205 16 20.4% 36 53%
2022 DAL 151 95 1306 8 63% 13.7 5.0%

Much of the discourse about the Cowboys offense last year revolved around getting Lamb into the slot. With Michael Gallup
constantly hurt, Lamb was pushed outside more than he had been in 2020. But Lamb gained 606 of his receiving yards in the
slot on 69 targets, and 615 receiving yards on 68 targets out wide. Big difference. All the Cowboys need to do is find a way to
make him the No. 1 option and get out of his way.
Lamb played up to his physical potential despite facing more man coverage in 2021, and he broke a surprising amount of
tackles for someone who was rarely featured in space. With Gallup’s ACL injury expected to limit him at the beginning of the
season and Cooper gone, it should not surprise anyone if Lamb starts getting pounded with targets in the early season. What
might surprise people who haven’t been watching closely is exactly how much of a force he could be with that workload. The
KUBIAK projections absolutely love him.

Jarvis Landry Height: 5-11 Weight: 196 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2014/2 (63) Born: 11/28/1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CLE 16/16 998 138 83 1174 6 8 60% -0.3 3 14.1 9.9 56 5.3 15 +0.5 23 4.1% 36 182 23 26.6% 7 77%
2020 CLE 15/14 699 101 72 840 3 9 71% +4.8 6 11.7 8.2 72 4.8 27 +0.3 14 4.0% 36 130 28 22.8% 25 81%
2021 CLE 12/12 533 87 52 570 2 4 60% -4.6 2 11.0 8.3 76 5.3 21 +0.5 10 -10.1% 73 18 74 24.9% 19 65%
2022 NO 71 43 512 4 61% 11.9 -8.9%

Injuries shaped the course of Landry’s season. He sprained his MCL at the beginning of Week 2, costing him five games, and
he wasn’t quite as spry as usual after returning. Cleveland’s continued inability to keep receivers around him healthy and happy
had him spending more time outside than usual. The Browns cut him loose this offseason and the Saints sprung on him in May.
Landry will turn 30 in November and isn’t a real solution to what ails the Saints, but he’s a more credible target than they had
at the position last year and could bounce back if healthy. His role in the passing game is kind of muddied from the outside by
what happens with Michael Thomas’ return.

Allen Lazard Height: 6-5 Weight: 227 College: Iowa State Draft: 2018/FA Born: 11-Dec-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 GB 16/3 484 52 35 477 3 8 67% +4.0 5 13.6 13.9 22 3.7 51 -0.4 2 14.6% 18 118 36 9.7% 81 72%
2020 GB 10/9 470 46 33 451 3 5 72% +2.7 5 13.7 10.1 -- 5.9 -- +1.2 2 28.3% -- 153 -- 14.7% -- 87%
2021 GB 15/13 716 60 40 513 8 12 67% +3.2 2 12.8 11.1 46 4.4 39 +0.3 4 24.8% 5 187 21 12.0% 80 84%
2022 GB 68 46 597 5 68% 13.0 10.4%

On some level, the Packers chose to keep Lazard over Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and that just might make sense considering
their team construction. Lazard is more of a complete receiver than he gets credit for, and he excels in specific roles. For one,
Lazard is a lights-out blocker. He often plays from the slot and has to get into some dirty work as a blocker, yet he has just one
blown block in the past three seasons while putting together some of the toughest film of any blocking receiver in the league.
It sounds obscure, but that’s critical to how the Packers’ run game functions, especially any time they want to run duo or plays
that could help bounce Aaron Jones outside.
As a receiver, Lazard is best as an intermediate threat, but he really comes alive in the red zone. Lazard caught all seven of
his red zone targets in 2020, converting three into scores. In 2021, he only caught half of his 16 red zone targets, but all eight
of those receptions became touchdowns. Not only does Lazard have the size, but he’s a nimble player who has become better
about using his hands to free up space at the catch point late in the play. In an uncertain receiver room, Lazard provides some
certainty in a couple of key areas.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 355

Tyler Lockett Height: 5-10 Weight: 182 College: Kansas State Draft: 2015/3 (69) Born: 28-Sep-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 SEA 16/16 1010 110 82 1057 8 14 75% +13.6 4 12.9 12.8 31 3.7 55 -1.1 4 24.6% 6 317 4 22.4% 26 83%
2020 SEA 16/16 944 132 100 1054 10 16 76% +9.8 7 10.5 10.1 49 3.3 70 -0.9 8 9.8% 21 238 14 24.8% 14 73%
2021 SEA 16/16 813 107 73 1175 8 10 68% +12.0 0 16.1 15.2 4 3.8 53 -1.1 4 22.8% 9 308 8 24.6% 20 60%
2022 SEA 100 60 812 5 60% 13.5 -3.4%

Lockett may be the closest thing the NFL has to Steph Curry: a one-dimensional long-ball specialist who is so good at that
one dimension that he doesn’t need to do anything else. Lockett did not make the top 40 wide receivers in targets less than 20
yards downfield, but his 37 targets of 20-plus yards were second only to Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, and he led the league with
23 catches/DPIs, 828 yards gained, and 314 DYAR on those throws. Even more unusual, Lockett ran most of his deep routes
from the slot. His 15.2-yard average depth of target from that position ranked eighth among qualifying wideouts, and none of
the players ahead of him had even half as many slot targets as Lockett’s 67.
Can he do it without Russell Wilson? For alliteration’s sake, we hope so—“Lock to Lockett” certainly rolls off the tongue.
But in 2020, his only year as a starter, Drew Lock had a 13.5% DVOA on deep balls, sixth worst among qualifying quarter-
backs. For what it’s worth, Geno Smith last year only threw nine deep balls, but he had a DVOA of 206.3% on those plays,
including three completions for 76 yards in five throws to Lockett. On throws of all depths, however, Lockett had a DVOA of
32.2% on passes from Wilson, -6.4% on passes from Smith. As good as Lockett may be, he still needs someone to get him the
ball, and the Seahawks don’t seem have anyone who can do that.

Drake London Height: 6-5 Weight: 210 College: USC Draft: 2022/1 (8) Born: 24-Jul-2001 Age: 21 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 ATL 96 58 730 4 60% 12.6 -6.7%

If London reaches his full potential, he’ll be too quick for big corners to cover and too physical for smaller corners to handle.
His leaping ability, wingspan, and general tenacity project him as a dominant contested-catch player, someone who may be
open even when he’s covered. London has also been quite successful after the catch, eluding tackles and turning the ball upfield.
His big red flag is significantly subpar speed, bordering on terrible for a first-round pick. While a fractured ankle meant he
couldn’t test, best estimates put his 40 time somewhere between 4.5 and 4.6 seconds. A lack of elite speed is far from a career
killer, with players such as DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams living in the same range as London is projected. But it does
put more pressure on London to translate his contested-catch ability to the pros as he’s not going to win on speed alone.

Terrace Marshall Height: 6-3 Weight: 200 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2021/2 (59) Born: 9-Jun-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 CAR 13/3 422 30 17 138 0 1 57% -4.1 3 8.1 7.0 -- 3.7 -- -1.1 1 -42.3% -- -70 -- 6.8% -- 80%
2022 CAR 38 22 265 1 58% 12.0 -15.6%

Marshall had the second-lowest DVOA for any receiver with at least 30 targets, ahead of only Ray-Ray McCloud. This is a
little shocking, considering how good he looked in preseason and the fact that the Panthers cleared the path for him to be a ma-
jor player in the slot, but a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness saw his usage taper off as the year went along. Marshall
ended up with a negative YAC+ as well, which is not ideal for someone in the bottom 15 of air yards among receivers with 30
targets. One bad season does not a bust make, but Marshall needs to take a significant step forward in Year 2.

Ray-Ray McCloud Height: 5-9 Weight: 190 College: Clemson Draft: 2018/6 (187) Born: 15-Oct-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CAR 6/0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2020 PIT 16/2 165 22 20 77 0 0 91% +2.2 1 3.9 0.9 -- 5.3 -- -2.1 6 -51.6% -- -75 -- 3.6% -- 50%
2021 PIT 16/5 538 65 39 277 0 3 58% -5.6 4 7.1 6.5 86 2.9 84 -2.2 6 -48.1% 93 -183 93 10.4% 87 92%
2022 SF 7 4 43 0 57% 10.8 -19.8%
356 WIDE RECEIVERS

McCloud somewhat surprisingly saw 65 targets in Pittsburgh in 2021, but the 49ers signed him to a two-year deal as a free
agent this offseason for his work on special teams. While McCloud was mostly expected to focus on returns a season ago, a
season-ending injury for JuJu Smith-Schuster forced him into the lineup more often, occasionally ahead of his more highly-
pedigreed teammate James Washington. McCloud’s receiving work mostly consisted of inefficient checkdowns close to the line
of scrimmage, but that was largely a function of an aging Ben Roethlisberger playing hot potato to avoid taking hits. As a result,
McCloud’s touches weren’t much to write home about. He has not been particularly impressive as a return specialist over the
past few years either, registering slightly negative value on both kickoff and punt returns.

Isaiah McKenzie Height: 5-8 Weight: 173 College: Georgia Draft: 2017/5 (172) Born: 9-Apr-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 BUF 15/8 454 39 27 254 1 3 69% -1.7 2 9.4 4.3 -- 7.6 -- +0.4 5 -21.0% -- -24 -- 8.5% -- 67%
2020 BUF 16/7 270 34 30 282 5 1 88% +4.5 1 9.4 4.4 -- 6.3 -- -0.0 8 25.1% -- 99 -- 5.9% -- 70%
2021 BUF 15/2 257 26 20 178 1 1 77% +2.4 2 8.9 6.0 -- 4.1 -- -1.3 4 6.2% -- 40 -- 4.7% -- 88%
2022 BUF 32 21 236 2 66% 11.2 -7.1%

McKenzie has spent the bulk of his five-year professional career as a return man and has even seen his target volume slip
from a modest peak of 39 targets in 2019 to 34 in 2020 and 26 last season. But McKenzie also teased what a potentially ex-
panded offensive role could mean for him in Week 16. With both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis sidelined on the COVID
list, McKenzie exploded for 11 catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown and demonstrated a play speed from the slot the heavier
Patriots pass defense couldn’t handle. McKenzie returned to the bench the next week when his teammates returned to the field,
and he seems headed for that same underused role in 2022 after Davis broke out in the playoffs and the Bills added Jamison
Crowder to replace Beasley in the slot. At least if this wide receiver thing never works out, McKenzie can fall back on a singing
career. He and other current and former NFL players sang as a choir on America’s Got Talent this offseason to rave reviews.

Terry McLaurin Height: 6-0 Weight: 210 College: Ohio State Draft: 2019/3 (76) Born: 15-Apr-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 WAS 14/14 784 93 58 919 7 12 62% +3.3 5 15.8 14.1 17 3.7 52 -0.3 6 18.9% 12 237 13 23.3% 18 34%
2020 WAS 15/15 950 134 87 1118 4 7 65% +0.5 3 12.9 9.6 56 5.5 14 +0.6 14 -11.0% 74 18 72 25.1% 11 46%
2021 WAS 17/17 1010 130 77 1053 5 12 59% -0.1 3 13.7 13.2 18 4.0 46 -0.4 8 0.8% 53 139 32 24.5% 21 52%
2022 WAS 111 68 886 5 61% 13.0 -2.4%

One of the forgotten soldiers of the 2022 War for Wide Receiver Pay, McLaurin didn’t attend voluntary OTAs as he searched
for a new contract in line with the new reality of the position. The Commanders gave it to him in late June: three more years
through 2025 for $71 million with $53 million guaranteed and a record $28-million signing bonus.
On deep targets last year, McLaurin had just a 4.2% DVOA. The average is 26.0%, and McLaurin was the only player with
more than 40 targets to be below 5.0% not named DK Metcalf. The main issue? He caught just 36% of those targets. And only
71% of his total targets on the season were catchable, per Sports Info Solutions’ charting. In the first four weeks of the season,
McLaurin caught eight balls with a target depth of 15 yards or more. He had just 10 the rest of the season, as Taylor Heinicke
was shut out throwing to him deep on multiple occasions. This sure seems like a wideout who has everything you’d look for
in a star; all he needs is the quarterback to bring it all out. Now let’s just all pretend that we don’t know what Washington did
instead, doesn’t that feel better?

DK Metcalf Height: 6-4 Weight: 230 College: Mississippi Draft: 2019/2 (64) Born: 14-Dec-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 SEA 16/15 940 100 58 900 7 21 58% -1.1 7 15.5 13.0 28 4.8 25 +0.3 13 0.6% 44 105 39 20.2% 35 17%
2020 SEA 16/16 980 129 83 1303 10 18 64% +6.8 9 15.7 14.1 10 4.4 43 +0.2 16 19.5% 12 334 5 24.2% 16 30%
2021 SEA 17/17 820 129 75 967 12 16 58% -0.5 3 12.9 12.8 20 4.4 38 +0.1 11 -1.8% 62 113 41 27.3% 8 30%
2022 SEA 111 61 839 6 55% 13.8 -9.1%

After Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, and Mike Williams each got $40 million or more
in guarantees this offseason, Metcalf sat back, looked at the one year for less than $4 million left on his rookie deal, said “screw
 WIDE RECEIVERS 357

this noise,” and sat out of June’s mandatory minicamp. Metcalf is recovering from a minor procedure on his foot in February
and may not have done much anyway, but he was still conspicuous by his absence. Both Metcalf and Pete Carroll have publicly
said that a new deal will get done and that they’re not worried about the situation, but each day that passes without a resolution
raises the possibility that Metcalf’s holdout will last into training camp.
One leverage point in Metcalf’s favor: he is the only person in Seattle who has shown an ability to elevate Geno Smith to
star status. In fact, Metcalf fared better with Smith last year than with Russell Wilson even before the latter quarterback’s finger
injury. Metcalf’s DVOA went from 12.2% with Wilson in the first part of the year to 46.7% with Smith to -22.4% after Wilson
returned to the field. Wilson’s gone now, so the reasons behind those splits are irrelevant, and the burden is on Metcalf is to
make things work with whomever Seattle’s next quarterback turns out to be.

John Metchie Height: 6-0 Weight: 195 College: Alabama Draft: 2022/2 (44) Born: 18-Jul-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 HOU 42 28 348 2 67% 12.4 1.8%

Metchie has a quick release off the line but comes from the Jerry Jeudy school (not just Alabama) of making a break look more
complicated than it needs to be with a lot of movement. At Alabama, Metchie became the short-area threat, set up to run after the
catch—more than half of his 1,142 receiving yards (645) came after the catch in 2021. The long speed isn’t quite there, which
limits the ceiling on deep passes, but he could follow a Hunter Renfrow path of working third downs from the slot. Metchie is
recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the SEC Championship Game in December, but has said he’ll be ready for training camp
in July. We are more skeptical, and our projection assumes Metchie first takes the field between Week 7 and Week 10.

Jakobi Meyers Height: 6-2 Weight: 200 College: North Carolina State Draft: 2019/FA Born: 9-Nov-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NE 15/1 420 41 26 359 0 3 63% +2.9 3 13.8 11.2 -- 4.4 -- -0.4 5 5.9% -- 61 -- 7.8% -- 67%
2020 NE 14/9 665 81 59 729 0 3 73% +5.1 2 12.4 10.2 48 3.7 61 -0.8 9 0.4% 42 81 45 21.9% 28 85%
2021 NE 17/16 931 126 83 866 2 6 66% +3.3 2 10.4 9.7 64 2.7 87 -1.8 4 -10.6% 74 21 72 24.0% 22 87%
2022 NE 93 62 671 4 67% 10.8 -7.2%

As the lone home-grown product in the Patriots’ wide receiver room, Meyers has earned some trust within the organization.
Despite the offseason acquisition of four veteran pass-catchers, Meyers’ 126 targets were by far the most of any wideout on the
team. Like Cam Newton before him, Mac Jones turned to Meyers on third/fourth-and-long situations. The only issue is Mey-
ers’ inefficiency when given the ball. Ranking 72nd out of 93 wide receivers in DYAR, Meyers is getting more volume than
ever without generating more production. Hats off to Meyers, though. He finally found the end zone after two seasons without
a receiving touchdown.

Darnell Mooney Height: 5-11 Weight: 175 College: Tulane Draft: 2020/5 (173) Born: 29-Oct-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 CHI 16/9 781 98 61 631 4 9 62% -1.2 3 10.3 11.6 33 4.2 53 -1.2 14 -20.3% 81 -60 82 16.4% 55 58%
2021 CHI 17/14 986 140 81 1055 4 9 58% -5.2 4 13.0 11.3 42 4.7 28 -0.5 13 -7.9% 69 54 65 26.8% 10 71%
2022 CHI 107 64 818 4 60% 12.8 -6.5%

Mooney is an awesome No. 3 who can moonlight as a No. 2 and is now set to be Chicago’s No. 1. It’s a bizarre situation for
Mooney, but he has proven himself very effective in certain ways, mainly as a threat to pick up chunk plays. In fact, Mooney
ranked fifth in DYAR on deep crossing routes, which is the exact route many expected he and Fields to connect on frequently
and effectively. The frustrating aspect of Mooney’s use last year was that Matt Nagy’s system ran way too many sharp timing
routes. For example, Mooney was targeted on 39 curl routes, good for third in the NFL and 11 more than the next receiver. It
doesn’t make sense to have him run precise routes and box people out on curls like that, at least not that often. It should also
be noted Mooney was targeted from the slot more frequently and performed far better there than outside, showing a 37.4%
difference in DVOA. Chicago also signed Byron Pringle, primarily a slot player. The Bears are going to have to wrestle with
how to use Mooney and Pringle at the same time, and that may mean more vertical work on the outside for Mooney like we
saw from him in 2020.
358 WIDE RECEIVERS

Chris Moore Height: 6-1 Weight: 200 College: Cincinnati Draft: 2016/4 (107) Born: 16-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 BAL 14/1 161 5 3 21 0 1 60% -0.1 0 7.0 12.2 -- 3.3 -- -3.2 0 -70.4% -- -21 -- 1.3% -- 80%
2020 BAL 2/0 14 0 0 0 0 0 -- -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2021 HOU 12/1 240 22 21 227 2 0 95% +4.1 0 10.8 4.1 -- 7.1 -- +0.1 3 3.0% -- 26 -- 5.8% -- 68%
2022 HOU 28 18 231 2 64% 12.9 -1.8%

Moore’s career looked over when he caught only three passes in 17 games in his last two years in Baltimore, but he signed
with Houston and set a career-high with 21 receptions. After spending time as a vertical receiver during his sporadic playing
opportunities with the Ravens, Moore’s slot role had him much closer to the line of scrimmage. Nearly half of Moore’s targets
were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which is a reason for both his high catch rate and yards after the catch. Moore was at
his best as a first-down target with 22.1% DVOA and 5.8-yard average depth of target.

DJ Moore Height: 5-11 Weight: 215 College: Maryland Draft: 2018/1 (24) Born: 14-Apr-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CAR 15/15 925 135 87 1175 4 7 64% +3.6 3 13.5 11.3 42 4.5 36 +0.3 17 3.2% 37 167 25 24.0% 17 26%
2020 CAR 15/14 835 118 66 1193 4 11 56% -4.5 7 18.1 13.4 16 5.8 9 +0.9 12 7.9% 26 191 20 23.6% 20 53%
2021 CAR 17/17 992 163 93 1157 4 10 57% -9.5 8 12.4 10.8 51 4.5 31 -0.1 11 -10.9% 75 22 71 28.4% 5 38%
2022 CAR 134 78 1001 5 58% 12.8 -9.7%

It’s not easy being DJ Moore. Last season, Moore led the league with 36 targets charted as either overthrown or underthrown,
costing him a league-worst -248 DYAR. Take away targets that aren’t the receiver’s fault—inaccurate throws, passes tipped at
the line, and so forth—and Moore jumps from 69th to 31st in DYAR, much closer to his actual skill level. When his quarter-
backs could actually find him, Moore was explosive, with his 31 receptions of 15 yards or more ranking in the top 10. Without
a quarterback upgrade, however, there’s a limit on how productive Moore can be.

Elijah Moore Height: 5-9 Weight: 184 College: Mississippi Draft: 2021/2 (34) Born: 27-Mar-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 NYJ 11/6 476 77 43 538 5 4 56% -3.1 4 12.5 12.1 30 4.8 25 -0.7 8 -8.9% 70 23 70 20.4% 37 63%
2022 NYJ 95 57 688 4 60% 12.1 -8.5%

Moore’s rookie season had its ups and downs, even in a year shortened by a five-week stint on IR for a quad injury. The first
six weeks flashed the growing pains felt throughout the Jets organization, with Moore netting just nine catches for 79 yards and
-54 DYAR. From Weeks 7 to 12, though, Moore put up 76 DYAR, 18th in the league over that stretch, and looked much closer
to what was predicted by his draft status.
Despite the less-than-stellar production, Moore was able to flash his versatility throughout the season. He split his snaps pret-
ty evenly between the slot and out wide. Moore also had five carries for 54 yards and a touchdown. As the offense progresses
in 2022, Moore can slide into the Swiss Army knife Deebo Samuel-esqe role in Mike LaFleur’s offense.

Rondale Moore Height: 5-9 Weight: 180 College: Purdue Draft: 2021/2 (49) Born: 9-Jun-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 ARI 14/7 432 64 54 435 1 1 84% +1.4 3 8.1 2.0 93 8.1 3 -0.1 17 -14.8% 82 -10 81 13.6% 71 77%
2022 ARI 79 54 545 4 68% 10.1 -5.8%

Moore had a bit of an underwhelming impact in his rookie season. While there were certainly flashes of explosive play every
now and again, Arizona used him almost exclusively as a gadget guy on schemed touches near the line of scrimmage. That
role alone is not that unusual for young players, but the extent to which the Cardinals refused to target him down the field was
shocking. Moore’s average depth of target of 2.0 yards was 3 whole yards fewer than any other qualifying wide receiver. As
a result, most of his receiving work was fairly inefficient. The idea of Rondale Moore, Explosive Threat with the Ball in his
Hands, sounds dangerous in theory for opposing defenses, but Arizona did not do a good job of maximizing his ability as a
 WIDE RECEIVERS 359

rookie. Moore had 18 carries for 76 yards last season (-10.8% DVOA) and his KUBIAK projection includes 23 carries for 102
yards and a touchdown (1.2% DVOA).

Skyy Moore Height: 5-10 Weight: 195 College: Western Michigan Draft: 2022/2 (54) Born: 10-Sep-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 KC 56 42 501 3 75% 11.9 12.6%

Moore caught 95 passes for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns in an offense that also produced D’Wayne Eskridge (Seahawks)
in the 2020 draft. Western Michigan used the RPO more than any FCS program, and Moore looked outstanding when lining up
in the slot and beating MAC defenders for short, crisp tosses from Kaleb Eleby (who earned a Seahawks tryout for his efforts).
Moore won’t get as many easy opportunities in the NFL, but he’s a precise route-runner who is willing to catch the ball in a
crowd. Folks touting Moore as Tyreek Hill’s “replacement” are trying much too hard to earn #DraftTwitter cred, but Moore
could easily replace Byron Pringle as the guy who catches lots of passes over the middle when everyone else is covered.

Chris Olave Height: 6-1 Weight: 188 College: Ohio State Draft: 2022/1 (11) Born: 27-Jun-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 NO 81 49 638 5 60% 13.0 -1.4%

It rarely looks like Olave is working hard on the field because everything he does seems so effortless. He’s an exception-
ally smooth route-runner who can turn on his sub-4.4s 40 speed without looking like he’s straining. The Saints will use him to
stretch the field, and don’t be surprised if he’s the first Saints receiver with a 15.0-yard average depth of target since Ted Ginn.
The knocks against Olave are a lack of size and relatively poor skills after the catch. Those might limit his ceiling, but he has
arguably the highest floor of any receiver in the class.

K.J. Osborn Height: 5-11 Weight: 203 College: Miami Draft: 2020/5 (176) Born: 10-Jun-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 MIN 9/0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2021 MIN 17/9 774 82 50 655 7 7 61% +0.7 0 13.1 10.7 53 3.6 62 -0.9 2 2.5% 47 92 51 14.2% 68 69%
2022 MIN 56 38 488 4 68% 12.8 9.5%

Osborn is short, quick, and fast, which made him useful to the Vikings in particular ways last season. Osborn was mostly
restricted to the slot, barring when he had to step up for injured players ahead of him. From the slot, Osborn did a good amount
of field-stretching, both horizontally and vertically, though his targets from the slot tended to be shallower, with an average
depth of target of 9.9 yards compared to 12.6 from the outside. Whereas Osborn was comfortable flying across the short middle
or sifting in between zones, working a tight sideline and battling bigger cornerbacks on the outside further down the field just
wasn’t a winning formula for him.
Osborn’s short-area success converted to the red zone, where he caught six of his nine targets, scoring three touchdowns. On
third and fourth down, however, Osborn was largely ineffective despite a whopping 34 targets, second on the team. He earned
just 11 first downs on those targets.

Josh Palmer Height: 6-2 Weight: 210 College: Tennessee Draft: 2021/3 (77) Born: 22-Sep-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 LAC 17/5 458 49 33 353 4 5 67% +1.3 1 10.7 10.0 -- 3.0 -- -0.8 1 3.7% -- 63 -- 7.3% -- 42%
2022 LAC 70 48 586 4 69% 12.2 6.8%

Palmer went 18-185-3 in his final five games after catching just 15 passes and one touchdown in the first three-fourths of
his rookie season. Palmer’s playing time increased because other receivers kept hopping onto and off the COVID list, and he
responded with some fine plays in critical situations, most notably his fourth-quarter, fourth-and-eternity touchdown against
the Raiders in the season finale. Palmer flashed enough potential as a route-runner and contested-catch specialist to merit the
360 WIDE RECEIVERS

Chargers’ WR3 role, and he does just enough Keenan Allen-like stuff to take on some extra responsibilities if/when Allen starts
to fade. Palmer is on the top of this year’s Top 25 Prospects list for young, developing later-round players (page 463).

DeVante Parker Height: 6-3 Weight: 216 College: Louisville Draft: 2015/1 (14) Born: 20-Jan-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIA 16/14 914 128 72 1202 9 11 56% +0.1 4 16.7 14.1 18 3.7 56 -0.4 9 14.9% 17 283 8 21.4% 28 40%
2020 MIA 14/11 726 103 63 793 4 15 61% -3.0 7 12.6 10.0 51 2.7 81 -1.0 10 -4.7% 57 70 47 22.2% 27 34%
2021 MIA 10/8 539 73 40 515 2 7 55% -3.7 4 12.9 11.9 34 2.6 88 -1.5 2 0.0% 56 74 56 21.0% 31 19%
2022 NE 80 49 615 4 61% 12.6 -4.9%

Parker was boxed out of Miami by the emergence of Jaylen Waddle and the acquisition of Tyreek Hill, but one team’s castoff
is another team’s ideal addition. Parker was the lone veteran New England added to their offense, and he completes this Patriots
receiving corps like a wide receiver Voltron. His contested-catch ability as a deep threat is something no other New England
receiver has (especially considering Parker had a league-low average 1.7 yards of separation for the second year in a row, per
Next Gen Stats). With Mac Jones’ arm strength struggles forcing more jump balls downfield, Parker can convert those heaves
into positive plays.

Zach Pascal Height: 6-2 Weight: 214 College: Old Dominion Draft: 2017/FA Born: 18-Dec-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 IND 16/13 809 72 41 607 5 8 57% -3.6 3 14.8 11.6 40 5.8 8 +1.6 6 8.4% 26 121 33 15.0% 64 60%
2020 IND 16/14 834 71 44 629 5 8 62% -1.3 5 14.3 10.9 42 5.3 19 +0.2 6 5.5% 31 99 37 13.0% 75 84%
2021 IND 16/13 872 69 38 384 3 7 55% -9.2 5 10.1 9.5 67 3.2 76 -1.7 1 -26.3% 89 -74 89 14.8% 63 85%
2022 PHI 23 14 174 1 61% 12.4 -8.6%

Football is like hot dog eating contest. Fundamentals are key, as coach Nick Sirianni explained last summer. “’Why is Ko-
bayashi so good at eating hot dogs?’” he asked during a press conference. “The detail and the fundamentals that he puts into it
... he has to have the right temperature of water to dunk the thing. He’s got to break the hot dog perfectly in half. My point on
that is … if you want to be the best in the world at what you do, on the football field, it comes down to the little things.” The
Eagles didn’t sign Zach Pascal to be the best in the world, but they did sign him to be the team’s No. 4 receiver and do the little
things. He’s a physical wideout, a reliable blocker, and a versatile special-teamer, traits Sirianni saw first-hand when he was
the Colts’ offensive coordinator from 2018 to 2020. Pascal’s receiving numbers were abysmal last season, but they might not
truly reflect his abilities as a pass-catcher (note the similarities between his 2019 and 2020 seasons). Remember, Carson Wentz
was so underwhelming in Indianapolis that the Colts repeatedly took the ball out of his hands and gave it to Jonathan Taylor.

Tim Patrick Height: 6-4 Weight: 212 College: Utah Draft: 2017/FA Born: 23-Nov-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DEN 8/2 290 31 16 218 0 2 52% -2.2 2 13.6 10.7 -- 2.4 -- -1.7 3 -7.8% -- 11 -- 12.6% -- 52%
2020 DEN 15/15 750 79 51 742 6 5 65% +3.6 2 14.5 12.5 27 4.7 32 +0.1 6 16.1% 15 183 22 16.2% 58 46%
2021 DEN 16/16 849 85 53 734 5 8 62% +2.1 3 13.8 12.0 33 3.8 50 +0.1 6 15.9% 17 190 20 17.4% 53 63%
2022 DEN 80 51 683 5 64% 13.4 6.5%

Patrick’s 2021 season was nearly identical to his 2020 season, statistically and conceptually. Nominally a possession target
and WR3/WR4, Patrick ends up starting due to injuries every year and providing both reliability and occasional big-play splash.
The Broncos signed Patrick to a three-year extension in 2021, so they have finally figured out that he’s a building block rather
than someone to replace in the draft. Any fantasy gamer drooling over what Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or KJ Hamler might
do with Russell Wilson at quarterback should keep in mind that Patrick has carved out 80 targets per year from Teddy Bridge-
water, Drew Lock, and Brett Rypien, so he’s sure to get Wilson’s attention, too.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 361

Donovan Peoples-Jones Height: 6-2 Weight: 208 College: Michigan Draft: 2020/6 (187) Born: 19-Feb-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 CLE 12/2 268 20 14 304 2 2 70% +2.5 1 21.7 17.2 -- 5.5 -- +0.8 1 51.9% -- 95 -- 5.6% -- 60%
2021 CLE 14/9 699 58 34 597 3 3 59% +0.4 3 17.6 15.5 3 4.3 40 -0.1 4 13.1% 19 122 38 14.5% 67 48%
2022 CLE 62 40 561 3 65% 14.0 3.0%

The deep receiver on a team that could not effectively throw deep. Cleveland finished with a 48.9% DVOA on deep passes, well
below the league average of 75.4%. Sixteen of Jones’ 61 targets came 20 yards or deeper past the line of scrimmage. Other than
a game with third-stringer Nick Mullens, who clearly had little rhythm with Peoples-Jones, only one of his passes was marked as
“defensed.” Peoples-Jones managed 247 yards on the 20 targets regardless, though a nice chunk of that was on a successful 57-
yard Hail Mary. Peoples-Jones finished with just 2.1 yards of average separation per NFL Next Gen Stats’ charting, one of the five
lowest numbers among qualified receivers. He’s a big target, but he needs to vary his routes up in a way to get corners off him. In
the event of Deshaun Watson playing this year, he has some major sleeper appeal. If not, it’s more of the same.

Breshad Perriman Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: Central Florida Draft: 2015/1 (26) Born: 10-Sep-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TB 14/4 652 69 36 645 6 11 52% +1.3 0 17.9 16.5 3 3.5 60 -1.1 3 16.5% 15 155 29 13.1% 68 34%
2020 NYJ 12/12 651 60 30 505 3 9 50% -3.7 4 16.8 15.5 5 5.3 18 +0.6 3 -4.4% 56 41 61 18.2% 47 59%
2021 2TM 6/0 153 18 11 167 1 2 61% +0.1 1 15.2 9.4 -- 9.3 -- +3.4 3 -6.5% -- 9 -- 7.0% -- 13%
2022 TB 24 15 202 1 63% 13.5 -1.4%

The Buccaneers’ usage of Perriman last season was a little head-scratching. He had an average depth of target of just 9.4
yards, which really doesn’t fit his skill set. Before 2021, Perriman had a career aDOT of 15.7, and had never dropped below
14.1 in any season. Perriman is a situational deep threat, and asking him to turn short passes upfield isn’t really what you would
expect. Then again, maybe there’s just nothing there left to expect, as Perriman couldn’t crack the Bears’ rotation early in the
season. Perriman is fighting for a roster spot in Tampa Bay, and it wouldn’t be astonishing to see him passed by Jaelon Darden
or Tyler Johnson at the back end of the roster.

George Pickens Height: 6-3 Weight: 200 College: Georgia Draft: 2022/2 (52) Born: 4-Mar-2001 Age: 21 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 PIT 46 28 356 2 61% 12.7 -7.0%

A pure outside receiver with the size to hang there, Pickens made it to the second round because he lost most of the 2021 sea-
son to a torn ACL, but torn ACLs are no death sentence for college wideouts. If there’s an area in his game that needs work it’s
at the catch point—he can get outmuscled or outmaneuvered, and his positioning isn’t always optimal. He has quite a highlight
reel, and he’s absolutely dynamic off the line of scrimmage. Or at least he was in 2020, anyway. Pickens has a chance to be an
every-down factor right away, sending Diontae Johnson into the slot. He may not be ready for it, and the simple truth is that the
Steelers offense might be bad enough for it to not matter much from a fantasy perspective if he’s starting. But the opportunity
is definitely there for Pickens to seize a role right away.

Alec Pierce Height: 6-3 Weight: 213 College: Cincinnati Draft: 2022/2 (53) Born: 2-May-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 IND 61 40 524 3 66% 13.1 3.8%

The Colts’ top 2022 draft pick is another big-bodied wide receiver who matches Matt Ryan’s skill set. He’s willing to do the
dirty work over the middle and can win in contested-catch situations. Head coach Frank Reich is expecting Pierce to compete
for the starting role as the Z receiver opposite Michael Pittman Jr. “I think he’s very good versus press, I think he’s got length
and vertical speed to get down the field,” Reich told reporters after the draft. “I think for his size, he’s a very good route runner.”
Playmaker Score is a bit more skeptical, giving Pierce just a 36.6% Playmaker Rating, as he came out as a senior and never had
a 1,000-yard season in college.
362 WIDE RECEIVERS

Michael Pittman Height: 6-4 Weight: 220 College: USC Draft: 2020/2 (34) Born: 5-Oct-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 IND 13/8 699 61 40 503 1 0 66% -1.0 3 12.6 8.3 69 7.3 1 +2.7 3 -5.8% 61 32 64 13.9% 70 50%
2021 IND 17/17 980 129 88 1082 6 9 68% +6.7 6 12.3 10.0 61 4.0 47 -0.5 8 7.1% 35 202 18 25.6% 14 49%
2022 IND 113 77 949 6 68% 12.3 2.9%

Pittman on third down and 10 or more yards to go: 15 targets, 11 receptions, 21.5 yards per catch, seven first downs, two
touchdowns. He also caught a 13-yard first-down pass on fourth-and-10. Being able to haul in a high percentage of Carson
Wentz’s hero balls bodes well for what Pittman may be capable of with a better decision maker at quarterback. Pittman told
reporters during OTAs that he’s trying to “become that definite receiver No. 1 that everybody talks about.” He has already
arrived as a darling fantasy semi-sleeper. Our projections are more tempered, in part because Pittman doesn’t fit the explosive-
play profile of a typical WR1, and in part because, at least from a fantasy/raw stats perspective, Wentz is not nearly as bad as
his reputation, nor Matt Ryan quite as good.

Byron Pringle Height: 6-1 Weight: 201 College: Kansas State Draft: 2018/FA Born: 17-Nov-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 KC 16/0 146 16 12 170 1 2 75% +2.1 2 14.2 11.1 -- 5.3 -- +0.7 4 22.9% -- 40 -- 2.8% -- 56%
2020 KC 13/3 239 17 13 160 1 2 76% +2.5 0 12.3 10.1 -- 5.2 -- +1.4 6 18.3% -- 47 -- 3.6% -- 72%
2021 KC 17/5 586 60 42 568 5 4 70% +5.4 5 13.5 10.7 54 4.5 34 +0.1 7 29.6% 2 202 17 9.3% 91 73%
2022 CHI 55 32 403 3 58% 12.6 -8.6%

Kansas City’s response to two-high coverages last year was Byron Pringle. Previously a sparingly used role player, Pringle
emerged in 2021 as the Chiefs’ underneath YAC option, non-Tyreek Hill division. Whereas Hill was mostly outside, Pringle did
his work from the slot. From there, Pringle was used on a combination of shallows, speed outs, and crossers, as well as a hand-
ful of vertical routes to keep middle-of-the-field defenders honest. Pringle was at his best with the ball in his hands, showing
off his 4.46s 40 speed to regularly pick up a few extra yards here and there. But he only saw six targets in the red zone, putting
him fifth on the team behind Darrel Williams. Pringle doesn’t do very well with contact in his routes, be that at the line or at
the catch point, which makes it tougher to trust him in condensed spaces. Now with the Bears, the hope is Pringle can provide
enough YAC value to be better than the mediocre receivers he is replacing.

James Proche Height: 6-0 Weight: 193 College: Southern Methodist Draft: 2020/6 (201) Born: 21-Sep-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 BAL 14/0 25 3 1 14 0 0 33% -1.2 0 14.0 4.0 -- 8.0 -- +4.7 0 -47.8% -- -8 -- 0.9% -- 100%
2021 BAL 14/0 212 20 16 202 0 0 80% +2.6 0 12.6 9.6 -- 3.4 -- -1.2 0 36.1% -- 74 -- 4.1% -- 90%
2022 BAL 41 26 323 2 63% 12.4 -3.9%

Yet another wideout in Baltimore to be filed under “young and hopeful.” Proche hasn’t made much of a dent outside the prac-
tice field in his first two seasons with the Ravens, but extenuating circumstances have left him with a prime opportunity—along
with about 4,531 other young and similarly sorta-talented receivers Baltimore has on its roster. Proche has the advantage of time
in the passing game system, such as it is, and proven special teams value. He was an excellent punt returner as a rookie before
Devin Duvernay took his corner with the ruthlessness Marlo Stanfield once displayed to Avon Barksdale on those same Balti-
more streets. Proche was a classic Ravens double-dip pick in the 2020 draft, a Duvernay clone picked three rounds later in case
DD didn’t work out. Given the wideout paucity in Maryland, the Ravens need them both to succeed, and not just as returners.

Kalif Raymond Height: 5-8 Weight: 182 College: Holy Cross Draft: 2016/FA Born: 8-Aug-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TEN 8/1 98 12 9 170 1 1 75% +2.2 0 18.9 18.3 -- 1.6 -- -2.2 0 21.0% -- 33 -- 5.5% -- 92%
2020 TEN 15/3 248 15 9 187 0 0 60% +0.3 1 20.8 17.5 -- 4.2 -- -1.3 0 16.2% -- 34 -- 3.4% -- 67%
2021 DET 16/14 742 71 48 576 4 2 68% +0.1 3 12.0 10.2 59 5.5 20 +0.5 8 -1.8% 61 62 62 13.1% 74 58%
2022 DET 11 8 93 1 73% 11.6 -6.2%
 WIDE RECEIVERS 363

Last season was Raymond’s first shot at a more complete receiver role. In Tennessee, Raymond got some run as a speed threat
to stretch the field vertically, specifically on play-action shot plays. In Detroit, Raymond got more work as a complete receiver,
both by alignment and route tree. Raymond earned far more work outside and was able to work more YAC routes underneath,
showcasing his speed with the ball rather than without it. He was surprisingly effective on early downs in that role, earning
positive DVOAs on first and second down. However, on third down, Raymond’s 18 targets produced a horrid -40.0% DVOA,
which isn’t too surprising for a career backup who needs very particular roles as opposed to being someone with the skills to
get open consistently. He needs to be schemed open for YAC work, and his only real use beyond that is field-stretching, which
he may revert to doing more of now that Detroit’s receiver room is more complete elsewhere.

Jalen Reagor Height: 5-11 Weight: 195 College: Texas Christian Draft: 2020/1 (21) Born: 2-Jan-1999 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 PHI 11/11 510 54 31 396 1 6 57% -3.4 1 12.8 13.0 19 5.6 11 +0.1 4 -20.5% 83 -32 79 13.9% 71 38%
2021 PHI 17/13 750 57 33 299 2 1 58% -4.9 4 9.1 11.1 45 4.6 30 -1.0 8 -22.5% 88 -42 87 12.4% 79 31%
2022 PHI 5 3 33 0 60% 11.0 -10.5%

Mention Reagor’s name within 50 miles of Philadelphia and you will hear an echo: “Justin Jefferson.” Jefferson, of course,
is the receiver the Eagles could have taken with the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft. Instead, they took Reagor. The compari-
sons haven’t stopped since. Behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and Zach Pascal on the depth chart, Reagor
might welcome a change of scenery, but an outright release doesn’t make sense from a cap perspective (the resulting dead-cap
charge would exceed his current cap hit). So in the meantime, the Eagles will hold onto him, hoping he can at least follow Nel-
son Agholor’s career trajectory. Agholor, drafted 20th overall by Philadelphia in 2015, posted nearly identical DVOA numbers
in his first two seasons (-21.3% and -23.3%) before climbing into positive territory in his third.

Hunter Renfrow Height: 5-10 Weight: 185 College: Clemson Draft: 2019/5 (149) Born: 21-Dec-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 OAK 13/4 445 71 49 605 4 5 69% +3.4 6 12.3 7.0 79 6.1 6 +1.8 14 7.9% 27 112 38 17.6% 56 97%
2020 LV 16/6 550 77 56 656 2 2 73% +1.8 4 11.7 7.3 81 6.0 7 +0.7 14 -3.2% 51 59 52 14.8% 64 94%
2021 LV 17/9 758 128 103 1038 9 11 80% +14.6 3 10.1 6.5 87 4.4 37 -0.3 22 14.1% 18 269 10 21.1% 29 92%
2022 LV 105 76 848 6 72% 11.2 4.6%

Renfrow plays and looks like the ultimate fan-favorite white-dude slot-specialist meme: Julian Edelman, wearing a Wes
Welker mask and tweeting from Cole Beasley’s account. As such, it’s tempting to fantasize about Renfrow earning vintage
Welker production in Josh McDaniels’ offense, with Davante Adams in the Randy Moss role, while forgetting that Derek Carr
ain’t Tom Brady. A more modest Edelman-like 90-100 catch season appears more attainable, especially since Renfrow often
looks better on the game film than prime Edelman. Renfrow will have room underneath to operate thanks to Adams, and few
receivers are better at getting open in their first three steps off the line of scrimmage.

Josh Reynolds Height: 6-3 Weight: 196 College: Texas A&M Draft: 2017/4 (117) Born: 16-Feb-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAR 16/2 490 43 21 326 1 4 49% -5.5 1 15.5 10.9 -- 6.6 -- +1.6 6 -16.1% -- -11 -- 7.0% -- 65%
2020 LAR 16/13 803 81 52 618 2 6 64% +1.4 2 11.9 11.0 39 4.3 46 +0.1 8 -10.6% 71 13 73 14.4% 66 49%
2021 2TM 12/5 333 49 29 396 2 7 59% -0.7 2 13.7 13.6 14 4.1 43 -0.0 4 2.1% 49 58 64 13.0% 76 41%
2022 DET 34 23 289 2 68% 12.6 -1.4%

Reynolds’ journey over the past couple of years has been an odd one. Reynolds earned 81 targets with the Rams in 2020,
largely out of necessity with Cooper Kupp out of the lineup, but then promptly fell into irrelevancy for the early part of 2021,
only active for five of his 10 games with the Titans despite all of their injuries at the position. Reynolds was then released, per
his request, and reunited with Jared Goff, a move that benefitted both players. Many of Reynolds’ best plays came on the side-
line, snagging a few acrobatic catches along the way. Reynolds’ DVOA was about five percentage points better from the outside
than in the slot, and his average depth of target was 3.5 yards higher at 15.0, giving the 2021 Lions a little taste of what it is like
364 WIDE RECEIVERS

to have an X receiver. Reynolds is maddeningly inconsistent, though, and will take a backseat in 2022 after the addition of DJ
Chark. Still, Reynolds is a solid backup who can fill in both outside and in the slot.

Calvin Ridley Height: 6-1 Weight: 190 College: Alabama Draft: 2018/1 (26) Born: 20-Dec-1994 Age: 28 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ATL 13/10 732 93 63 866 7 8 68% +8.3 3 13.7 13.9 21 2.2 78 -1.9 6 30.6% 2 310 5 17.8% 53 32%
2020 ATL 15/15 822 143 90 1374 9 21 63% +8.0 6 15.3 14.3 8 3.1 78 -1.1 15 6.7% 27 230 17 25.5% 9 37%
2021 ATL 5/5 299 52 31 281 2 4 60% -2.8 3 9.1 10.9 50 2.9 85 -1.2 4 -16.0% 84 -14 84 33.1% 1 44%

Ridley became the fifth player in league history to be suspended a year for gambling after he placed a series of bets on
games over Thanksgiving weekend while he was away from the Falcons for mental health reasons. No player has returned to
the league after a gambling suspension since Paul Hornung and Alex Karras in the 1960s, and Ridley will be attempting to do
the same in 2023 after playing just five out of 34 possible games over the last two seasons. Even before the suspension and his
leave of absence, he was struggling in 2021, though plenty of that can be blamed on the anemic Atlanta offense. It’s an uphill
battle back to NFL relevance for Ridley from here despite his undeniable talent.

Allen Robinson Height: 6-2 Weight: 220 College: Penn State Draft: 2014/2 (61) Born: 8/24/1993 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CHI 16/15 1025 154 98 1147 7 14 64% +0.4 4 11.7 11.2 44 2.6 77 -1.9 9 0.4% 45 165 26 27.9% 4 65%
2020 CHI 16/16 911 151 102 1250 6 15 68% +2.5 0 12.3 9.9 52 3.1 74 -1.2 13 1.4% 41 175 24 25.5% 10 56%
2021 CHI 12/11 617 66 38 410 1 5 58% -2.0 1 10.8 12.2 27 2.4 90 -1.8 3 -9.2% 71 19 73 18.3% 47 54%
2022 LAR 99 65 815 6 66% 12.5 5.2%

One of the most difficult players to forecast this season. Robinson has long been heralded by film wonks as one of the NFL’s
top wide receivers stuck with some of its worst quarterbacks. Now he finally gets to play with a good one in Matthew Stafford,
but is it too late? Robinson missed three games around Thanksgiving with a hamstring injury, returned for one game against
Green Bay, then missed two games with COVID before coming back to face the Giants and Vikings in Chicago’s last two
contests. He was clearly at less than 100% in those last three outings (combined numbers: 16 targets, eight catches, 71 yards,
no touchdowns), but then he had hardly been lighting the world on fire before that point. He had fallen to WR2 behind Darnell
Mooney and was basically neck-and-neck with Cole Kmet for targets, but even as an ancillary piece in the Chicago offense,
his efficiency numbers cratered. Then again, it was the Chicago offense, and hardly anyone could have kept their head above
water in that swamp. For what it’s worth, Robinson looked much better catching passes from Justin Fields (-4.6% DVOA on 48
targets) than from Andy Dalton (-19.2% DVOA on 21). The Rams believe there’s still some gas in the tank here, guaranteeing
Robinson more than $30 million over three years, but either he or Van Jefferson will need to be a consistently effective deep
threat if the Rams are going to return to the Super Bowl.

Demarcus Robinson Height: 6-1 Weight: 203 College: Florida Draft: 2016/4 (126) Born: 21-Sep-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 KC 16/10 743 55 32 449 4 6 58% -1.4 1 14.0 13.3 24 3.2 67 -1.1 9 1.0% 42 61 53 10.1% 79 45%
2020 KC 16/9 711 59 45 466 3 6 76% +5.4 2 10.4 8.9 65 3.8 58 -0.5 7 5.2% 32 81 44 9.6% 84 41%
2021 KC 17/10 696 41 25 264 3 6 61% -0.0 1 10.6 10.4 -- 2.5 -- -1.6 1 -8.5% -- 13 -- 6.4% -- 31%
2022 LV 23 16 192 1 70% 12.0 0.1%

The knock on Robinson during his six years in Kansas City is that he wasn’t the quickest study or the most dialed-in indi-
vidual in the wide receiver room. Despite prodigious talent and a nominal starting job, Robinson’s role in the Chiefs offense
was often limited to decoy deep routes mixed with targets on shallow crosses when Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were each
quintuple-covered. Robinson is a so-so run blocker with a knack for negating long gains with holding/facemask penalties, and
the Chiefs took him off regular special teams duty a few years ago, In short, Robinson is the sort of veteran who could easily
fall off the back of a depth chart in favor of a more useful bench receiver such as Mack Hollins.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 365

Wan'Dale Robinson Height: 5-11 Weight: 185 College: Kentucky Draft: 2022/2 (43) Born: 5-Jan-2001 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 NYG 48 32 362 2 67% 11.3 -7.5%

The Giants’ selection of Robinson in the second round of April’s draft was widely regarded as a reach. Maybe it was, but
Playmaker Score loves him, rating him as the fourth-best wide receiver in this year’s draft class behind Treylon Burks (Arkan-
sas), Garrett Wilson (Ohio State), and Jameson Williams (Alabama). He was an absolute weapon at Kentucky in 2021, catching
104 passes for 1,334 yards and seven touchdowns and rushing seven times for 111 yards. Twitchy, explosive, and versatile, he
can strike from anywhere and is tough to bring down. He ranked fifth among draft prospects in rate of broken tackles per recep-
tion (0.26) and ninth in yards after catch per game (46.9), according to Sports Info Solutions. Sounds a lot like Kadarius Toney,
doesn’t he? Sure does, minus the bad tweets and cryptic Instagram posts. For a team that ranked near the bottom of the league
last season in yards per catch, surely they can find a way to use both.

Chester Rogers Height: 6-0 Weight: 184 College: Grambling State Draft: 2016/FA Born: 12-Jan-1994 Age: 28 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 IND 12/6 414 28 16 179 2 4 57% -1.7 4 11.2 8.7 -- 4.3 -- -0.6 3 -17.9% -- -11 -- 7.5% -- 86%
2021 TEN 16/2 464 43 30 301 1 2 70% +0.8 2 10.0 7.9 -- 3.4 -- -1.7 0 -7.4% -- 17 -- 9.2% -- 91%

Rogers is a return specialist who found playing time at receiver as the Titans continued to need depth at the position. He ran
the third-most routes on the team behind A.J. Brown and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and spent most of his time in the slot. His
43 targets and 30 receptions were the second highest of his career after the 2018 season, when he found himself as a starting
receiver in Indianapolis (72 targets, 53 receptions). Instead of finding success as a receiver using returner-like skills, Rogers
did his best work as a third- and fourth-down receiver down the field (11.1% DVOA and 10.2-yard average depth of target).
Currently unsigned.

Curtis Samuel Height: 5-11 Weight: 195 College: Ohio State Draft: 2017/2 (40) Born: 11-Aug-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 CAR 16/15 970 105 54 627 6 10 51% -6.0 7 11.6 15.2 11 2.8 74 -1.5 7 -15.1% 71 -21 73 17.9% 52 34%
2020 CAR 15/5 658 97 77 851 3 2 79% +11.4 5 11.1 7.4 80 4.2 54 -1.4 15 0.1% 43 95 39 19.5% 37 89%
2021 WAS 5/1 84 9 6 27 0 0 67% -0.9 0 4.5 2.3 -- 6.7 -- -1.0 1 -38.4% -- -20 -- 5.6% -- 33%
2022 WAS 66 42 475 3 64% 11.3 -8.7%

In Year 1 of his three-year, $34.5-million contract, Samuel was extremely hurt. He only played 84 snaps, laid low by a groin
injury from training camp and then briefly resurfacing in the middle of the year until a hamstring injury put him back on IR.
This is an enormous season for Samuel, who probably needs to be productive in 2022 to be regarded as a starting-caliber NFL
wideout. He did report to OTAs and practice in May, so that’s a good start. It’s hard to say that he’ll have heavy fantasy rel-
evance in a suddenly packed Washington receiver corps, but when healthy he has the behind-the-LOS tackle-breaking game
that the Commanders both want to use and had almost no success with last year. Samuel is well off most fantasy radars right
now, but he’s a bit of a sleeper if everything comes together right for him. Samuel’s KUBIAK projection includes 20 carries for
88 yards and a touchdown (0.6% DVOA).

Deebo Samuel Height: 5-11 Weight: 214 College: South Carolina Draft: 2019/2 (36) Born: 15-Jan-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 SF 15/11 728 81 57 802 3 5 70% +1.6 8 14.1 7.4 75 8.3 2 +2.4 28 7.3% 29 121 34 18.1% 51 66%
2020 SF 7/5 305 44 33 391 1 0 75% -0.7 3 11.8 2.5 -- 12.1 -- +4.7 12 5.5% -- 64 -- 17.9% -- 70%
2021 SF 16/15 829 122 77 1405 6 3 64% -2.3 11 18.2 8.4 74 10.0 1 +4.2 37 12.4% 22 231 13 25.7% 13 67%
2022 SF 100 62 917 4 62% 14.8 0.4%

Anyone watching the 49ers last year could tell that Samuel’s breakout 2021 season was a seriously unique display of his
varied skill sets as a receiver and a runner, but his involvement on the ground was truly historic. Samuel scored a touchdown
366 WIDE RECEIVERS

on 13.6% of his carries, which was the largest percentage in the league among all non-quarterbacks with at least 10 carries.
Samuel finished with the most rushing DYAR we have ever measured for a player nominally listed as a wide receiver. There
have only been 12 players to ever exceed 100 rushing DYAR as a wide receiver, and Samuel narrowly beat out 2015 Tavon
Austin for the record.

Most Single-Season Rushing DYAR, WRs, 1981-2021

Player Team Year DYAR Runs Yards Yd/Car TD
Deebo Samuel SF 2021 255 59 365 6.2 8
Tavon Austin STL 2015 253 51 427 8.4 4
Percy Harvin MIN 2011 183 52 345 6.6 2
Tavon Austin STL 2014 175 36 224 6.2 2
Percy Harvin 2TM 2014 138 33 202 6.1 1
Josh Cribbs CLE 2009 124 56 383 6.8 1
Josh Cribbs CLE 2008 120 29 167 5.8 1
Tyreek Hill KC 2016 120 24 267 11.1 3
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 2013 118 12 158 13.2 3
Cordarrelle Patterson NE 2018 114 42 228 5.4 1
Jacoby Ford OAK 2010 112 10 155 15.5 2
Deebo Samuel SF 2019 111 14 159 11.4 3

It was a truly special year, but we may never see anything on that level again from Samuel given his expressed preference
to play more of a true wide receiver role. Considering the punishment running backs endure, it is not surprising that he would
want to dial back the carries and focus on his receiving work. Still, Samuel’s KUBIAK projection includes 69 carries for 401
yards and 3 rushing touchdowns (14.6% DVOA).

Emmanuel Sanders Height: 5-11 Weight: 180 College: Southern Methodist Draft: 2010/3 (82) Born: 17-Mar-1987 Age: 35 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 2TM 17/16 859 97 66 869 5 8 68% +3.7 2 13.2 10.8 45 3.6 58 -0.6 6 10.5% 24 188 22 20.1% 38 67%
2020 NO 14/5 559 82 61 726 5 8 74% +5.5 4 11.9 9.2 60 2.8 80 -1.4 3 9.6% 22 150 25 18.9% 43 61%
2021 BUF 14/13 747 72 42 626 4 10 58% +2.3 2 14.9 15.0 5 2.0 92 -2.0 0 11.8% 24 131 36 13.9% 70 49%

Sanders has seen a steady decline in his receiving yards since his 1,400-yard peak in 2014, dropping to 726 and 626 yards
the last two seasons. That pattern matches expectations for a veteran into his mid-thirties. But Sanders has belied those total
declines with continued efficiency. In fact, Sanders has finished between 9.6% and 11.8% receiving DVOA each of the last
three seasons, and those rates are his best since Peyton Manning’s last great season in Denver in 2014. With a route-running
savvy to run outside or from the slot, Sanders should still be a valuable fourth receiver for a contender. We assume he’ll sign
somewhere when the inevitable August injuries hit.

Anthony Schwartz Height: 6-0 Weight: 179 College: Auburn Draft: 2021/3 (91) Born: 5-Sep-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 CLE 14/2 295 23 10 135 1 2 43% -1.6 1 13.5 17.2 -- 1.0 -- -2.8 1 -14.4% -- -3 -- 5.5% -- 48%
2022 CLE 24 15 176 1 63% 11.7 -12.7%

Dealing with a mulltiple-week concussion, Schwartz didn’t add much in his rookie season. Five of his 23 targets came in
Week 1 when the Browns were without Odell Beckham. Even when other injuries opened up some snaps, he was far behind
Donovan Peoples-Jones in the pecking order. The speedster has some kick return value to offer and should compete for a roster
spot, but he probably won’t be a fantasy factor unless there are more injuries in front of him.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 367

Tajae Sharpe Height: 6-2 Weight: 194 College: Massachusetts Draft: 2016/5 (140) Born: 23-Dec-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 TEN 15/6 444 34 25 329 4 4 74% +4.9 0 13.2 15.1 -- 2.3 -- -1.6 1 45.1% -- 157 -- 8.6% -- 57%
2020 MIN 4/0 28 3 0 0 0 1 0% -1.0 0 0.0 37.3 -- 0.0 -- +0.0 0 -105.3% -- -21 -- 2.4% -- 67%
2021 ATL 15/7 510 37 25 230 0 3 68% +0.4 1 9.2 9.7 -- 2.7 -- -1.6 1 -14.8% -- -6 -- 7.6% -- 58%
2022 CHI 4 2 28 0 50% 14.0 -10.7%

The long-awaited reunion of Tajae Sharpe and his former Titans coordinator Arthur Smith produced a vintage performance
in Atlanta last season, by which we mean that he did a lot of run blocking and picked up two or three targets per game. The
plan was likely never for Sharpe to play a significant role in the Atlanta offense, but Calvin Ridley’s leave of absence upped
Sharpe’s snap share from 20% to over 70%, with underwhelming results. Sharpe at this point is a bottom-of-the-roster receiver
with no special teams value, making him a hard fit for most organizations. Fortunately, the Bears came calling and so Sharpe
has a chance to earn the No. 3 receiver role in the vast wasteland that is the Chicago receiver corps.

Laviska Shenault Height: 6-1 Weight: 227 College: Colorado Draft: 2020/2 (42) Born: 5-Oct-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 JAX 14/12 585 79 58 600 5 6 73% +2.9 4 10.3 6.4 84 5.1 24 +0.1 24 -4.0% 55 56 55 15.3% 61 60%
2021 JAX 16/10 697 100 63 619 0 3 63% -5.6 10 9.8 5.5 91 6.2 8 +0.2 20 -27.7% 90 -112 91 18.0% 50 65%
2022 JAX 25 15 171 1 60% 11.4 -16.9%

Shenault was targeted on third or fourth downs 42 times in 2021. That was more late-down targets than Travis Kelce, Ja’Marr
Chase, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and many other receivers you might expect quarterbacks to look toward in the clutch.
His average depth of target of 6.7 was third lowest among receivers with 20 or more late-down targets, so you know what was
going on here: Trevor Lawrence was checking down for dear life an awful lot. Shenault did produce 17 first downs, however,
so he was doing something right after the catch and in third-and-manageable situations.
Shanault was one of the few veterans who participated in Doug Pederson’s no-longer-mandatory minicamp in June. He must
have noticed that Christian Kirk does many of the same things he does but was just signed for much more money. Shenault will
be intriguing trade bait if he’s squeezed out of a role: the whole Deebo Lite thing is tiresome to even write about, but he has just
enough sizzle as a big slot YAC target to thrive in the right circumstances.

Sterling Shepard Height: 5-10 Weight: 201 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2016/2 (40) Born: 10-Feb-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NYG 10/10 608 83 57 576 3 7 69% +1.6 3 10.1 9.9 59 3.1 70 -1.2 8 -8.1% 61 30 60 22.6% 23 65%
2020 NYG 12/12 561 90 66 656 3 3 73% +4.1 1 9.9 8.3 71 3.1 77 -1.4 8 -9.0% 67 25 67 23.7% 19 53%
2021 NYG 7/6 344 53 36 366 1 1 68% -0.0 5 10.2 7.7 80 3.1 80 -1.2 8 -11.9% 76 3 76 23.6% 24 75%
2022 NYG 82 54 607 3 66% 11.2 -7.0%

Shepard struggled to stay healthy again in 2021. He played in the Giants’ first three contests but played in consecutive games
only once after that because of hamstring and quad injuries. His season ended in Week 15 when he tore his Achilles. He has
missed 20 games since 2019 and very well could miss the start of this season as he recovers.
When he wasn’t hurt last season, Shepard worked mostly from the slot. The Giants had been using him more as an outside
receiver in recent seasons but decided to slide him back inside after signing Kenny Golladay. Despite playing in only seven
games, he led the Giants in slot targets (39), catching 26 of them for 282 yards and one touchdown. He also drew three defen-
sive pass interference penalties. Though his -5.4% DVOA in the slot obviously wasn’t good, it was the highest on the team
(minimum 10 targets).
368 WIDE RECEIVERS

Darius Slayton Height: 6-1 Weight: 190 College: Auburn Draft: 2019/5 (171) Born: 12-Jan-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NYG 14/9 709 84 48 740 8 6 57% +2.0 3 15.4 14.1 16 4.0 45 -0.2 5 9.6% 25 148 30 16.5% 60 21%
2020 NYG 16/15 877 96 50 751 3 9 52% -6.6 5 15.0 13.6 14 3.2 72 -0.7 6 -13.6% 77 -7 77 18.9% 42 27%
2021 NYG 13/5 536 58 26 339 2 4 45% -7.8 6 13.0 13.3 17 2.5 89 -1.7 0 -36.2% 92 -108 90 13.6% 72 27%
2022 NYG 35 21 281 1 60% 13.4 -9.5%

After the Giants signed Kenny Golladay and drafted Kadarius Toney last offseason, Slayton was the odd man out. His playing
time plummeted from 87% of the offensive snaps in 2020 to less than half in 2021. His production suffered, as you would ex-
pect, but so did his overall quality of play. Most concerning: Slayton dropped a career-high six passes—16.2% of his catchable
targets, according to Sports Info Solutions. One of them, late in Week 2 vs. Washington, would have been a 43-yard potentially
game-sealing touchdown. Instead, the Giants squandered the lead and lost 30-29. Given the number of receivers in front of
Slayton on the depth chart as well as the organization’s cap-conscious approach to this offseason, his days in East Rutherford
appear to be numbered.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 College: USC Draft: 2017/2 (62) Born: 22-Nov-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 PIT 12/12 580 71 42 552 3 6 59% -2.8 6 13.1 9.9 58 5.3 13 +0.2 4 -11.3% 65 8 66 19.7% 40 74%
2020 PIT 16/14 923 128 97 831 9 10 76% +4.7 3 8.6 5.6 87 4.2 50 -0.6 6 -10.0% 69 28 65 19.3% 40 88%
2021 PIT 5/5 222 28 15 129 0 0 54% -2.6 0 8.6 6.5 -- 4.5 -- -1.2 4 -34.7% -- -47 -- 14.3% -- 93%
2022 KC 101 74 772 6 73% 10.4 2.7%

Smith-Schuster battled rib injuries at the start of the 2021 season, was powerless to generate enough YAC to get the Steelers’
Pop Warner offense out of first gear, suffered a shoulder injury in Week 5, underwent surgery, managed to come back for five
catches and 26 yards in the Steelers’ wild-card loss, then discovered a sluggish market for his services in free agency, even in
Pittsburgh. Maybe he should have called Trent Baalke personally.
There are two Smith-Schusters at this point in his career. There’s the 111-catch guy from 2018 who also caught 97 floaters
from Creaky Ben in 2020, then took a modest contract to remain in Pittsburgh in 2021 and gutted his way back from an injury.
There’s also Instagram JuJu, whom Steelers fans (ginned up by local radio personalities) wrote off years ago as a prima donna
holdover from the Antonio Brown era. Smith-Schuster may turn out to be either a bargain or a bust and either an ideal team-
mate or a flighty self-promoter; we won’t know for sure until we see him in an offense that features actual forward passing for
the first time in three years.

DeVonta Smith Height: 6-1 Weight: 175 College: Alabama Draft: 2021/1 (10) Born: 14-Nov-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 PHI 17/16 916 104 64 916 5 12 62% +4.2 2 14.3 14.1 10 3.3 72 -0.8 11 7.7% 32 166 26 22.6% 25 41%
2022 PHI 104 64 901 5 62% 14.1 2.3%

Smith put concerns about his durability to rest last season, starting in all 17 games. That last start carried a little extra signifi-
cance. In the first quarter, Smith racked up 42 receiving yards, pushing him to 916 on the season and past DeSean Jackson’s
team record for a rookie, set in 2008.
Smith was better at home (3.9 catches and 63.4 yards per game, 20.5% DVOA) than on the road (3.7 catches and 45.4 yards
per game, -3.6% DVOA). Random? Or might a pregame meal be the difference? Smith told GQ that before he heads to the
Linc, he scarfs down a syrupy breakfast sandwich, hash browns, and orange juice. “If it’s a home game, I have to have it,” he
said. “If it’s a road game, I’ll just eat in the hotel.”
A more meaningful split, probably: Smith was the Eagles’ most effective wide receiver from the slot, catching 26 of a team-
high 42 targets for 406 yards. His five touchdowns in 2021 all came from that alignment.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 369

Tre'Quan Smith Height: 6-2 Weight: 210 College: Central Florida Draft: 2018/3 (91) Born: 7-Jan-1996 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NO 11/6 464 25 18 234 5 3 72% +0.9 2 13.0 8.9 -- 6.4 -- +2.8 8 53.6% -- 135 -- 6.7% -- 69%
2020 NO 14/10 672 50 34 448 4 4 68% +0.6 4 13.2 9.0 63 4.0 56 -0.3 8 2.9% 39 61 51 11.1% 81 66%
2021 NO 11/6 520 50 32 377 3 7 64% +0.3 1 11.8 9.7 65 3.5 65 +0.0 4 -1.7% 60 42 68 16.5% 61 76%
2022 NO 24 13 173 2 54% 13.3 -15.7%

Is it possible Smith fails to make the Saints’ roster this season? He signed a new two-year deal in March, but that came with
very little in the way of guaranteed money. Since then, the Saints have added Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, sending Smith
tumbling down the pecking order and possibly out of the receiver rotation entirely. Smith has never lived up to his third-round
draft billing, and now he has to fight Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty for the scraps. Smith should manage to grab the
fourth or fifth receiver slot, but if he was looking for more opportunity, he should have gone elsewhere in free agency.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Height: 6-1 Weight: 195 College: USC Draft: 2021/4 (112) Born: 24-Oct-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 DET 17/9 816 119 90 912 5 4 76% +8.6 1 10.1 7.0 84 4.7 27 +0.1 11 6.9% 36 181 22 20.7% 34 77%
2022 DET 105 72 785 5 69% 10.9 -2.3%

St. Brown was the league’s most unlikely volume target last season. A Day 3 rookie, St. Brown had a slow build throughout
the season, working as an underneath slot option until the final five weeks of the year. Then T.J. Hockenson left with injury and
St. Brown earned 55 targets over the final five games. St. Brown’s route tree was fairly straightforward too: curls, outs, and
crossers. He was targeted on 32 out routes, second most in the NFL, and 21 curl routes. St. Brown also ran crossers at various
depths, especially with Hockenson out, and earned the fourth-most DYAR on deep crossers on just eight targets. What’s more,
the Lions used St. Brown from the backfield a ton. Not only did St. Brown have the third-most backfield targets among receiv-
ers (eight), but in the final five games, St. Brown handled six carries for 59 yards and a touchdown. While St. Brown can’t take
the top off or win with size, he already looks to be an effective possession slot with some unique skills out of the backfield. The
arrival of DJ Chark and (once he’s healthy) Jameson Williams should limit his fantasy value.

Equanimeous St. Brown Height: 6-5 Weight: 214 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2018/6 (207) Born: 30-Sep-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 GB 12/1 196 13 7 117 1 2 54% -1.3 2 16.7 12.1 -- 8.4 -- +3.6 1 14.5% -- 27 -- 3.4% -- 92%
2021 GB 13/2 292 17 9 98 0 1 53% -1.7 0 10.9 9.9 -- 6.4 -- +1.9 5 -22.6% -- -14 -- 4.0% -- 78%
2022 CHI 33 19 248 1 58% 13.1 -11.7%

St. Brown’s best season came as a rookie in 2018—21 catches for 328 yards, -7.2% DVOA—and he has been fighting to
get back to that level ever since. An oversized receiver with 4.48s speed, St. Brown theoretically has similar tools to Marquez
Valdes-Scantling as a big-bodied vertical threat on the outside. He proved that a little bit as a rookie with a 15.6-yard average
depth of target and 13 first downs on just 21 receptions. St. Brown has only ever earned six red zone targets, though, one as
a rookie and five in 2021. Those are troubling figures to square considering he is the size of a tree and should, in theory, have
some value as a jump-ball guy in that area of the field. Unfortunately, St. Brown suffered a high ankle sprain early in 2019 and
missed the entire season, an injury that seemingly stunted any growth he may have been able to show as a player up to this point.
Perhaps a change of scenery and a better chance of cracking the starting lineup spurns some late development, but the Bears are
certainly taking a risk by giving him a runway to a starting job this season.

Courtland Sutton Height: 6-4 Weight: 216 College: Southern Methodist Draft: 2018/2 (40) Born: 10-Oct-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DEN 16/14 942 124 72 1112 6 12 58% +1.1 6 15.4 12.2 35 4.9 23 +0.6 18 5.7% 32 189 21 26.9% 5 43%
2020 DEN 1/1 31 6 3 66 0 0 50% -0.4 1 22.0 17.7 -- 2.3 -- -5.7 0 1.3% -- 6 -- 17.5% -- 17%
2021 DEN 17/16 920 98 58 776 2 9 59% +3.0 2 13.4 15.7 2 2.3 91 -1.8 2 3.7% 42 131 35 19.8% 39 31%
2022 DEN 98 63 840 6 64% 13.3 5.5%
370 WIDE RECEIVERS

Sutton caught 40 passes for 579 yards and two touchdowns in the Broncos’ first eight games of 2021. Then lots of stuff hap-
pened. Sutton suffered an ankle injury in October but played through it. He signed a reported $60.8-million contract extension
in November. Jerry Jeudy returned from an ankle injury and became the focal point of Pat Shurmur’s game plans. Finally,
Teddy Bridgewater got injured, forcing Drew Lock back into our lives. Whatever the cause or causes, Sutton caught just 18
passes for 197 yards in his final eight games. As a gifted downfield threat, Sutton looks like he could break out monstrously
with Russell Wilson throwing him the ball and Nathaniel Hackett engineering the offense. Our projections are more tempered,
however, in part because there are so many mouths to feed in Denver, but also because Sutton’s super-duper-deluxe breakout
has been a year away for five years.

Freddie Swain Height: 6-0 Weight: 199 College: Florida Draft: 2020/6 (214) Born: 4-Aug-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 SEA 16/1 351 21 13 159 2 4 62% -1.0 0 12.2 10.7 -- 7.8 -- +3.0 0 -10.1% -- 4 -- 3.9% -- 52%
2021 SEA 17/8 592 40 25 343 4 4 63% -3.2 1 13.7 8.0 -- 8.2 -- +2.1 3 10.1% -- 64 -- 8.5% -- 65%
2022 SEA 17 9 119 1 53% 13.2 -24.5%

The third receiver in the Seahawks’ offense is like your crazy uncle from out of state: he’s fun at parties a couple of times
a year, but then he disappears for so long you almost forget he exists. Swain’s biggest games were against Tennessee in Week
2 (five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown) and against Detroit in Week 17 (two catches for 65 yards). In the 13 games in
between, he caught 17 passes for 158 yards with a pair of scores. And it’s not like he wasn’t on the field—he played over 60%
of Seattle’s offensive snaps in that time frame, and even started seven times. Christian McCaffrey, a running back who missed
10 games, caught more passes for more yards than Swain did in 2021. But Swain never faced any threat of demotion because
the alternatives were Dee Eskridge, Penny Hart, and for a couple of games Phillip Dorsett. A normal team would have moved
mountains to upgrade their wide receivers over the offseason. The Seahawks drafted a couple of seventh-rounders, signed aging
track star Marquise Goodwin, and said “eh, maybe Eskridge will figure things out.”

Adam Thielen Height: 6-2 Weight: 200 College: Minnesota State Draft: 2013/FA Born: 22-Aug-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIN 10/10 443 48 30 418 6 7 63% +2.0 3 13.9 12.4 34 3.9 46 -0.0 4 15.4% 16 103 40 17.7% 55 58%
2020 MIN 15/15 926 108 74 925 14 22 69% +5.1 4 12.5 11.5 35 3.3 69 -0.3 6 19.2% 13 287 9 24.2% 15 59%
2021 MIN 13/13 758 95 67 726 10 8 71% +6.3 1 10.8 9.5 68 3.6 63 -0.9 6 6.5% 37 142 30 21.3% 28 41%
2022 MIN 90 60 731 7 67% 12.2 5.7%

While Thielen is largely considered a slot receiver who can play outside, the opposite was true last season, when the bulk of
his targets came from wide alignments. One reason for that was so that the Vikings could put K.J. Osborn in the slot and keep
Thielen outside. The Vikings also used fewer tight alignments with their top receivers, preferring to keep the formation a bit
more open. Despite some of those changes, Thielen was still his usual self in the red zone. Thielen has now earned at least a
70.0% DVOA in the red zone each of the past three seasons, scoring 23 touchdowns from inside the 20. Red zone production
typically doesn’t stick like that, but Thielen has a rare blend of size (he’s bigger than you think), change of direction, and flex-
ibility when it comes to finding the ball at odd angles in condensed spaces. Though not a jump-ball winner, Thielen is a red
zone offense unto himself.

Michael Thomas Height: 6-3 Weight: 212 College: Ohio State Draft: 2016/2 (47) Born: 3-Mar-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 NO 16/15 959 185 149 1725 9 7 81% +24.9 3 11.6 8.2 68 3.9 47 -0.2 12 23.9% 8 538 1 33.2% 1 48%
2020 NO 7/5 345 55 40 438 0 2 73% +3.4 1 11.0 9.7 54 2.1 86 -1.8 3 -2.6% 49 45 60 24.9% 13 41%
2022 NO 100 63 754 6 63% 12.0 -2.2%

Thomas has not played a professional football game since January 2021, and the continued news on his ankle hasn’t exactly
been comforting. Thomas did not participate in the Saints’ offseason workouts, and Dennis Allen confirmed that the receiver
was not yet 100% healthy, although Thomas posted a video to his Instagram account showing him running routes. Before his
injury, Thomas was arguably the best receiver in football, finishing in the top 10 in receiving DYAR in each of his first four
 WIDE RECEIVERS 371

seasons in the league. No one else has ever managed that feat. In last season’s comment, we suggested that a healthy Thomas
would be back to his usual dominant self. We repeat that here, but with added emphasis on the word “healthy.”

Tyquan Thornton Height: 6-3 Weight: 182 College: Baylor Draft: 2022/2 (50) Born: 7-Aug-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 NE 22 14 200 1 64% 14.3 -0.5%

The Patriots have been looking for a field-stretching deep threat for some time now. They took a swing at it when they signed
Nelson Agholor in 2021, but you can check out his comment to see how that went (hint: not great). Mac Jones attempted 66
deep passes, tied for 12th in the NFL. On those throws, he ranked 28th in DVOA. While there are questions regarding Jones’
arm strength, a speedy deep threat could ameliorate those less-than-stellar numbers.
In comes Thornton, who impressed at the combine with a 4.28s 40-yard-dash. That isn’t just shirt-and-shorts speed, either.
Combined with his release at the line of scrimmage, that speed makes Thornton a legitimate threat to separate from opposing
cornerbacks. It helped Thornton finish top-10 in Big 12 yards per reception in three of his four seasons at Baylor.

Jalen Tolbert Height: 6-3 Weight: 190 College: South Alabama Draft: 2022/3 (88) Born: 27-Feb-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 DAL 38 26 328 2 68% 12.6 3.7%

A back-to-back all-SWAC wideout, Tolbert has the size to play outside and has shown a little bit of everything you’d want
in a receiver prospect. He ran a 4.49s 40-yard dash at the combine, showed some refined routes in the middle of the field, was
as prolific as 1,474 yards makes him sound, and has enough size to play inside. He played well in his only real game against a
Power 5 team vs. Tennessee in November, catching seven passes for 143 yards and a touchdown. Tolbert will probably develop
this year behind James Washington before getting a real role in Dallas’ offense, but don’t entirely rule out the idea of him seiz-
ing targets early.

Kadarius Toney Height: 6-0 Weight: 193 College: Florida Draft: 2021/1 (20) Born: 27-Jan-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 NYG 10/4 301 57 39 420 0 2 68% +0.4 2 10.8 6.4 88 5.8 11 +0.0 19 -9.3% 72 15 75 16.8% 59 61%
2022 NYG 98 63 747 3 64% 11.9 -6.1%

Toney’s offseason was as tumultuous as his first regular season. In late April, the New York Daily News reported that the Gi-
ants were trying to trade Toney. At the time, he wasn’t taking part in the team’s voluntary workouts and, as head coach Brian
Daboll noted, had yet to receive a playbook. Toney got the message and finally showed up a few days later. He couldn’t fully
participate, however, because he had undergone supposedly minor knee surgery earlier in the offseason.
Amid all this, the Giants drafted Wan’Dale Robinson, a receiver who possesses a nearly identical skill set. An insurance
policy? Perhaps. But it wouldn’t be such a bad thing if Robinson’s presence prompted the Giants to slide Toney out wide a little
more often. This could be rookie randomness and/or quarterback ineffectiveness, but it’s surprising nonetheless: When lined up
in the slot last season, Toney produced a -19.6% DVOA, which ranked 86th out of 93 qualifying receivers. (Not surprising: A
pair of Giants—Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton—occupied two of the seven spots beneath him.) But when out wide, Toney
produced a 10.9% DVOA, which ranked 26th.

Laquon Treadwell Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: Mississippi Draft: 2016/1 (23) Born: 14-Jun-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIN 13/1 176 16 9 184 1 0 56% +0.6 0 20.4 11.9 -- 6.3 -- +2.3 3 31.7% -- 53 -- 4.4% -- 63%
2020 ATL 5/0 59 7 6 49 2 2 86% +0.9 0 8.2 5.6 -- 2.2 -- -1.0 1 46.6% -- 34 -- 3.6% -- 100%
2021 JAX 12/7 485 51 33 434 1 4 65% +0.5 3 13.2 12.5 25 3.7 60 -0.6 6 6.0% 38 76 55 12.5% 78 48%
2022 JAX 17 10 126 1 59% 12.6 -16.9%
372 WIDE RECEIVERS

A slow-footed, hustling, hard-blocking former first-round bust by the Vikings, Treadwell started the 2021 season stuck to the
bottom of the Jaguars depth chart because Urban Meyer remembered him from Ole Miss or something. Treadwell climbed the
depth chart due to injuries and managerial incompetence and wound up producing a bunch of four-to-six catch games in losses
by scores like 37-7, 20-0 and 50-10. Of Treadwell’s 33 receptions, 23 came when the Jaguars were losing by 10 or more points,
so we’re talking about some serious garbage-time production. Treadwell does indeed hustle and block, so there are worse op-
tions than keeping him around as an WR4. But the Jaguars didn’t overpay half the free-agent wide receivers and tight ends on
the market so they could watch Trevor Lawrence dawdle in the pocket and wait for the defense to get bored enough to allow
Laquon Freakin’ Treadwell to get open.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Height: 6-4 Weight: 207 College: South Florida Draft: 2018/5 (174) Born: 10-Oct-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 GB 16/10 556 56 26 452 2 8 46% -3.4 2 17.4 17.2 2 5.8 10 +0.0 3 -15.5% 72 -13 71 10.5% 76 45%
2020 GB 16/12 794 63 33 690 6 5 52% -2.3 7 20.9 18.5 1 7.3 2 +2.3 4 8.5% 25 112 34 13.1% 74 55%
2021 GB 11/7 455 55 26 430 3 6 47% -4.5 0 16.5 17.9 1 5.6 16 +0.3 0 -14.6% 81 -8 80 14.6% 66 47%
2022 KC 68 44 673 4 65% 16.9 17.2%

Valdes-Scantling on passes of 20 or more air yards during his four-year career: 84 targets, 25 receptions, 1,124 yards, seven
touchdowns, four drops (three of them in 2020), a hefty 44.9 yards per reception, but just 13.4 yards per target. Those are good-
not-great numbers for a receiver paired with a Hall of Fame quarterback, with a perennial All-Pro receiver teammate to draw
coverage away. Furthermore, Valdes-Scantling’s deep-target rates did not improve at all from year to year, a sign of stunted
development. Tyreek Hill caught 59 of 117 targets of 20-plus yards for 1,883 yards and 20 touchdowns over the last four years.
No one expects Valdes-Scantling to replace Hill’s deep production, but there’s a chance that he will fall well short of even
tempered expectations.

Jaylen Waddle Height: 5-10 Weight: 182 College: Alabama Draft: 2021/1 (6) Born: 25-Nov-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 MIA 16/16 903 140 104 1015 6 4 74% +5.9 8 9.8 7.3 83 4.2 42 -0.8 12 0.3% 55 146 29 25.0% 18 66%
2022 MIA 105 70 766 5 67% 10.9 -4.2%

With 100 catches and 1,000 yards as a rookie, Waddle eased some of our concerns about him as a prospect. He had played just
six games in his final season at Alabama and played second fiddle to teammate DeVonta Smith, earning him a Playmaker Rating
outside the top 10 in his class. Now that they are transitioning to Mike McDaniel’s Shanahan-influenced offensive scheme, the
Dolphins are undoubtedly thrilled they made Waddle their top 2020 draft selection. He had an exceptional +5.9 receiving plus/
minus at a low 7.3-yard average depth of target that should fit nicely in an offense that looks for YAC opportunities. And while
Waddle’s -0.8 YAC+ was below average, he has the speed to excel after the catch with better spacing. He touched a top-10
ballcarrier speed at 21.8 mph on a 57-yard reception last season according to Next Gen Stats.

James Washington Height: 5-11 Weight: 213 College: Oklahoma State Draft: 2018/2 (60) Born: 2-Apr-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 PIT 15/10 649 80 44 735 3 6 55% +0.2 6 16.7 16.2 4 4.2 41 -0.5 2 11.2% 22 156 28 18.3% 50 48%
2020 PIT 16/7 486 56 30 392 5 11 54% -2.6 5 13.1 12.7 24 4.6 33 +0.5 6 -8.9% 65 18 71 8.9% 87 35%
2021 PIT 15/2 480 44 24 285 2 5 55% -2.8 1 11.9 12.2 -- 3.3 -- -1.9 1 -13.1% -- -2 -- 7.8% -- 33%
2022 DAL 50 33 430 3 66% 13.0 4.0%

Despite a surge in his second year, Washington finishes his time with the Steelers with just one season over 400 receiving
yards. He’s a deep threat—he has never caught more than 55% of his targets despite high completion rates from Ben Roeth-
lisberger’s checkdown game—so he was a weird fit for the end of Roethlisberger’s glory days. Outside of a few games where
Chase Claypool was hurt or punished for being an on-field doofus, Washington didn’t get much run. The Cowboys with Dak
Prescott are a more promising fit for his services, and Cedrick Wilson did some good things in this sort of role last season.
Washington has our interest, and he should only be a few big fantasy games away from having our attention.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 373

Quez Watkins Height: 6-2 Weight: 190 College: Southern Mississippi Draft: 2020/6 (200) Born: 9-Jun-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 PHI 6/0 119 13 7 106 1 1 54% -1.1 3 15.1 11.1 -- 8.3 -- +0.7 1 -9.6% -- 3 -- 6.5% -- 36%
2021 PHI 17/12 771 62 43 647 1 4 69% +4.8 1 15.0 12.0 32 5.9 10 -0.0 9 3.7% 43 79 54 13.1% 75 74%
2022 PHI 18 12 159 1 67% 13.3 -4.0%

The Eagles might have found a gem in the sixth round of the 2020 draft. In his second season, Watkins emerged as a down-
field threat, particularly on third and fourth downs. In such situations, he led the team in catches (17), catch rate (77.3%), yards
(328), and DVOA (54.7%). Watkins gained at least 20 yards on eight of those catches, one of only six players in the league to
do so. The others: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Green, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Christian Kirk. With A.J. Brown in the fold,
however, Watkins is unlikely to maintain this level of production even if he maintains this level of efficiency.

Sammy Watkins Height: 6-1 Weight: 211 College: Clemson Draft: 2014/1 (4) Born: 14-Jun-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 KC 14/13 744 90 52 673 3 5 58% -4.8 4 12.9 9.6 64 5.7 12 +0.9 14 -12.3% 67 3 68 18.3% 49 65%
2020 KC 10/9 527 55 37 421 2 4 67% -1.0 4 11.4 8.1 73 4.2 49 +0.5 2 -0.4% 44 57 54 14.6% 65 54%
2021 BAL 13/9 458 49 27 394 1 4 55% -1.7 5 14.6 12.9 -- 4.0 -- -0.0 4 -12.5% -- 1 -- 10.7% -- 29%
2022 GB 45 28 374 3 62% 13.4 -0.9%

Mercenary receiver Sammy Watkins is on the move again, this time slotting into the Packers’ receiver room. It’s a bit tricky
to project what Watkins may be in Green Bay, as he was used quite differently at his last two stops. Watkins was an intermediate
and deep threat in Baltimore last year, helping stretch the field with Hollywood Brown in Greg Roman’s unnecessarily vertical
passing offense, as evidenced by his average depth of target. During the previous three seasons with the Chiefs, however, Wat-
kins was a slot/outside hybrid who worked the short to intermediate section, proving comfortable with blocking and horizontal
stretches from the slot as well as quick-hitting iso routes from the outside. The most interesting possibility is the Packers blend
his blocking and speed to fill the vacancy left by Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a blocking and field-stretching specialist. Watkins
isn’t as tall as MVS, but his skill set checks the rest of the boxes. If Watkins is going to outplay expectation through some other
means, it will likely require a revival in his red zone play. Watkins has not earned more than nine red zone targets in any of the
last three seasons, and his best DVOA mark over that stretch was just 3.8% on a measly four targets last year.

Christian Watson Height: 6-5 Weight: 200 College: North Dakota State Draft: 2022/2 (34) Born: 12-May-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 GB 68 46 573 4 68% 12.5 6.0%

It’s clear that Watson was drafted to replace Marquez Valdes-Scantling due to their size, speed, and route tree similarities.
Watson sports a long, lean frame with an explosive lower half. At the NFL combine, Watson cleared the 90th percentile in the
10-yard split, 40-yard dash, and broad jump and also posted an 84th percentile broad jump. He is a blazer down the field, which
is why North Dakota State spammed post routes and go balls with him. As expected, all of that explosiveness translates well
once the ball is in his hands, turning Watson into threat to find the house from anywhere if he can get a few clean strides in.
On the other hand, Watson doesn’t quite play to his size when it comes to fighting for the ball in the air. He can do it, but the
consistency is a bit lacking for a such a large character. Additionally, Watson has the size to dominate as a blocker, but he is
coming out of college nowhere close to Valdes-Scantling’s level, so that could be a pain point for Green Bay during Watson’s
rookie year.

Antoine Wesley Height: 6-4 Weight: 206 College: Texas Tech Draft: 2019/FA Born: 22-Oct-1997 Age: 25 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2021 ARI 15/4 459 32 19 208 3 6 59% +0.2 0 10.9 11.0 -- 3.2 -- -1.1 4 1.8% -- 38 -- 6.6% -- 18%
2022 ARI 16 10 121 1 63% 12.1 -5.3%
374 WIDE RECEIVERS

Wesley originally went undrafted out of Texas Tech in 2019, but his collegiate connection to head coach Kliff Kingsbury
brought him to Arizona. Wesley did not play much at all early in the season, but after DeAndre Hopkins went down with an
injury, he essentially slotted in directly to Hopkins’ spot as the outside receiver primarily lining up on the offensive left. Shock-
ingly, he was not as good as the former All-Pro, and it showed up in Arizona’s offensive output down the stretch. On early
downs, passes intended for Wesley were mostly OK, but in high-leverage situations such as red zone attempts, the difference
between Wesley and Hopkins was pretty stark. It’s a small sample size, but Wesley only hauled in two of his six targets near
the goal line. Ideally, Arizona will not have to rely on Wesley as often in 2022, but with Hopkins suspended to start the year,
he may be on the field a good amount.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 College: Indiana Draft: 2020/FA Born: 21-Mar-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2020 TEN 14/1 157 8 3 33 0 1 38% -2.3 1 11.0 10.3 -- 1.7 -- -2.3 0 -42.6% -- -19 -- 1.9% -- 75%
2021 TEN 16/7 661 57 38 476 4 4 67% +2.6 2 12.5 11.1 43 3.8 55 -0.0 3 7.6% 33 91 52 11.6% 84 64%
2022 TEN 52 33 407 3 63% 12.3 -3.7%

Westbrook-Ikhine made quite a splash for an undrafted second-year wideout who didn’t see much playing time in his rookie
season. After injuries to both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, he figured his way in as the No. 2 receiver throughout the season and
finished second in targets behind Brown. He played well both outside (4.2% DVOA) and in the slot (9.5% DVOA). That type
of versatility will allow Westbrook-Ikhine to stay in the rotation as at least the No. 3 receiver at full health, and he could be the
top target early in the season pending Robert Woods’ recovery and how quickly Treylon Burks can make an impact.

Jameson Williams Height: 6-2 Weight: 189 College: Alabama Draft: 2022/1 (12) Born: 26-Mar-2001 Age: 21 Risk: Red
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 DET 60 39 487 3 65% 12.5 0.0%

Williams’ main concern is health. He tore his ACL during the National Championship Game against Georgia, holding him out
of the pre-draft process and potentially limiting his availability and impact early on as a rookie. That didn’t stop him from going
12th overall in the draft, though, and that’s because Williams brings a special blend of elite speed, thoughtful route-running,
and surprising effectiveness against press despite his slender frame. On film, Williams shows electric speed, both as a sprinter
down the field on vertical routes as well as when he has the ball in his hands. Likewise, Williams sports tremendous burst and
stop-start ability, which shines in his route-running. It’s not just that Williams has the explosiveness to run crisp routes, but he
does well to tempo his routes and mix up his approach to keep defensive backs on their toes. All of that culminated in 0.83 EPA
per target last season, a mark that ranked third among receivers with 100 targets in last year’s class (and the two receivers above
him played in the Group of 5). Williams’ areas to improve on are his ability to fight contact at the catch point and a need to be
more consistent catching the ball, but neither issue should hamstring him. Williams is a player who gets open often and from
any alignment, and he has game-changing potential if things turn out right. Our projection for Williams assumes he starts the
year on PUP and debuts sometime between Week 7 and Week 10.

Mike Williams Height: 6-4 Weight: 218 College: Clemson Draft: 2017/1 (7) Born: 4-Oct-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAC 15/15 850 90 49 1001 2 13 54% +1.1 2 20.4 17.6 1 3.8 50 -0.8 3 20.6% 11 235 14 17.1% 58 43%
2020 LAC 15/11 799 85 48 756 5 14 56% -0.0 4 15.8 14.6 7 3.4 67 -0.7 2 4.5% 35 117 30 15.0% 63 28%
2021 LAC 16/14 896 129 76 1146 9 15 59% -2.7 7 15.1 11.8 36 5.5 19 +1.0 5 9.6% 28 234 12 20.9% 32 34%
2022 LAC 119 78 1092 7 66% 14.0 10.4%

It pays to stay ahead of the market. The Chargers signed Williams to a three-year, $60-million contract on March 8, just days
before Trent Baalke destabilized the global economy by handing Christian Kirk $72 million. Not only did the Williams deal
look downright thrifty a few months later, but it created some short-term cap space that helped the Chargers absorb Khalil Mack
and sign J.C. Jackson. In his rookie 2018 season, Williams was targeted 12 times on deep passes (20 or more air yards), while
Keenan Allen was targeted deep 10 times. Williams’ deep targets have increased to 31, 23 and 29 in the three years since, while
Allen’s deep targets rose to 21 before dropping to 13 and 14. Williams is now the Chargers’ only truly dangerous deep threat,
 WIDE RECEIVERS 375

which is a minor issue for a team trying to win shootouts and showcase Justin Herbert, but at least he’s a very capable deep
threat. And a rather affordable one at that.

Albert Wilson Height: 5-9 Weight: 195 College: Georgia State Draft: 2014/FA Born: 12-Jul-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 MIA 13/4 441 62 43 351 1 0 69% -1.0 6 8.2 5.3 81 4.2 43 -1.2 17 -23.7% 77 -53 76 12.4% 72 81%
2021 MIA 14/5 361 39 25 213 0 1 64% -3.7 2 8.5 5.6 -- 5.7 -- +0.0 10 -31.9% -- -61 -- 8.0% -- 68%
2022 MIN 5 3 32 0 60% 10.7 -8.8%

Wilson finished second among qualified receivers with 7.5 average yards after the catch in Kansas City in 2017. But after
earning a three-year, $24-million deal for those efforts, Wilson underwhelmed in his Dolphins tenure. He fell to a career-worst
4.2 yards after the catch in 2019. He sat out 2020 because of COVID concerns. And he caught just 25 passes in 2021, his lowest
total since his rookie season in 2014. Wilson will try to rebound on the Vikings in 2022 and faces less competition on a roster
built for the team’s previous head coach Mike Zimmer, who used three receivers just 54% of the time last season, the sixth-
lowest rate in football. But Wilson also pulled a veteran minimum deal to join his new team, a distinction that bodes poorly for
a rebound to his prime seasons when he played two-thirds or more of his teams’ offensive snaps.

Cedrick Wilson Height: 6-5 Weight: 188 College: Boise State Draft: 2018/6 (208) Born: 20-Nov-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 DAL 6/0 75 8 5 46 0 0 63% +0.3 0 9.2 16.8 -- 2.2 -- -1.7 0 -28.2% -- -9 -- 3.7% -- 38%
2020 DAL 16/0 228 28 17 189 2 4 61% -2.1 1 11.1 8.6 -- 6.6 -- +1.8 2 -11.1% -- 4 -- 4.6% -- 75%
2021 DAL 16/4 528 61 45 602 6 4 74% +4.7 3 13.4 9.8 63 5.8 14 +0.6 6 18.6% 14 154 27 10.1% 89 92%
2022 MIA 41 27 351 2 66% 13.0 1.0%

At various points of the offseason, Tyreek Hill announced that his new Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had better accuracy
than Patrick Mahomes, had crazy arm talent, and “threw one of the prettiest deep balls [Hill] had ever caught.” Maybe Hill wanted
to support his new quarterback. Or maybe he wanted to say something controversial to promote his new podcast “It Needed to
be Said.” But Cedrick Wilson will have to hope that Tagovailoa throws downfield much more in 2021 than he did in 2020. That’s
because Wilson contributed 71 of his total 154 DYAR on post routes, the fifth-highest total in football. Wilson saw 92% of his
targets from the slot last season and could play there in three-receiver formations for Miami. But Wilson is much closer to the Hill
archetype of speed-slot receivers than he is a quick-twitch slot receiver like his new wide receivers coach Wes Welker.

Garrett Wilson Height: 6-0 Weight: 192 College: Ohio State Draft: 2022/1 (10) Born: 22-Jul-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2022 NYJ 89 53 694 4 60% 13.1 -6.5%

The Wilson-to-Wilson connection is going to be fun next season. Garrett Wilson is the most recent product from the Ohio
State Wide Receiver Factory, joining teammate Chris Olave as a first-round pick in this year’s draft. Wilson ended up going
one pick before Olave because of his athleticism and versatility. His body control and route-running gave Big Ten cornerbacks
fits for the last two seasons, helping Wilson finish top-five in the conference in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns his
last two seasons. Add that skill set to Wilson’s experience both in the slot and out wide and he becomes quite the dangerous
receiving option.
Arguably his biggest weakness comes from his lack of down-to-down dominance, his success appearing more in flashes than
on every play. Considering his new quarterback looked to play hero ball on almost every down last year, that could be a force
multiplier that results in some explosive offense... and a lot of three-and-outs.
376 WIDE RECEIVERS

Robert Woods Height: 6-0 Weight: 193 College: USC Draft: 2013/2 (41) Born: 10-Apr-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 LAR 15/15 1009 139 90 1134 2 4 65% +2.4 4 12.6 8.4 67 6.4 5 +0.7 12 -4.0% 51 94 43 24.2% 16 67%
2020 LAR 16/16 1000 129 90 936 6 6 70% +2.5 5 10.4 6.9 82 5.5 16 +0.2 15 -10.9% 72 18 69 22.8% 24 82%
2021 LAR 9/9 543 69 45 556 4 7 65% +0.7 3 12.4 8.2 77 4.4 35 +0.4 4 12.7% 21 139 31 21.7% 26 69%
2022 TEN 109 71 844 5 65% 11.9 -2.1%

Woods is built for the type of run-heavy, play-action offense the Titans want to run. He could be the perfect slot option for
a team that didn’t really have a prototypical slot receiver last season. There’s a kind of role that suits this type of offense for a
receiver who can do some of that dirty work inside, but it’s not fair to limit the perception of Woods’ role in an offense to just
that. His versatility is an underrated aspect of his game. While so much of the Rams’ offense worked with Woods in tight, he
was more dangerous as a receiver when he lined up outside (52.3% DVOA) in 2021. Woods tore his ACL is November, but has
already started to participate in offseason workouts.

Olamide Zaccheaus Height: 5-8 Weight: 193 College: Virginia Draft: 2019/FA Born: 23-Jul-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot
2019 ATL 10/0 88 5 3 115 1 0 60% -0.1 0 38.3 13.8 -- 21.0 -- +14.9 1 82.2% -- 33 -- 1.2% -- 60%
2020 ATL 11/2 308 32 20 274 1 3 63% +1.4 1 13.7 13.8 -- 3.2 -- -1.2 2 8.5% -- 51 -- 7.6% -- 31%
2021 ATL 17/8 610 53 31 406 3 5 58% -2.3 3 13.1 8.9 70 3.1 79 -1.0 1 2.9% 46 66 59 9.6% 90 64%
2022 ATL 29 17 219 1 59% 12.9 -12.5%

Zaccheaus is a rarity in Atlanta: a receiver under 6 feet tall. He was also a rarity in 2021 as a Falcons offensive player with
a good season, acquitting himself well after being forced into a larger role with Calvin Ridley away from the team and Russell
Gage hurt. He was Atlanta’s top receiver by DVOA and proved he could be a useful part of an offense on a regular basis. He
did not show he could be a team’s top wideout, but with the Falcons’ receiver room bare at the beginning of free agency, that’s
where he was penciled in throughout March. Atlanta has wisely added an army of giants to their receiver room, but Zaccheaus
may be able to slip underneath them for regular work as the third or fourth option. Not bad for the former UDFA.

Going Deep
Jamal Agnew, JAX: When DJ Chark was lost for the season due to a fractured ankle, Agnew stepped up in his stead. Agnew
is a former cornerback and top return man, but last year was his most significant playing time at wide receiver. He posted a 24-
229-1 line with -14.9% DVOA and had 129.2% DVOA on seven rushing attempts, including a 79-yard touchdown run against
Indianapolis. The Jaguars hope they won’t have to use him too much as a receiver when he comes back from the hip injury he
suffered in November, but he’ll get his gadget plays.

Tutu Atwell, LAR: The undersized (5-foot-9, 165-pound) second-round rookie saw only 10 snaps on offense before suffering
a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 8 against Houston. He had a few chances to return kicks but did little with them, with
negative value on both punts and kickoffs. In a May interview with Rams Wire, McVay singled Atwell out as someone who had
stood out in spring practices, saying “by no means is the book written on Tutu Atwell.” Well, we would hope not. That would
be a terribly short book. Much shorter than this one.

Calvin Austin, PIT: One of Peter King’s Football Morning in America post-draft articles was about his chance to be in the
Ravens war room for the start of Day 3, when the team had a choice between Austin and punter Jordan Stout. They picked Stout,
and Austin went to the Steelers right before Baltimore’s next pick at 139. Austin is a waterbug wideout who ran a 4.32s 40-yard
dash at 170 pounds. In the short term, he projects as Pittsburgh’s replacement for Ray-Ray McCloud as an outlet receiver who
can make things happen.

Trinity Benson, DET: Benson started in the NFL with the Broncos in 2019 but had yet to earn snaps of any kind until last
season with the Lions. Benson’s primary issue is the most important part of playing wide receiver: catching the ball. Benson’s
45% catch rate barely beat out Trent Sherfield, another speedster without hands. While Benson did reportedly run a 4.44s 40
out of college a few years ago, that speed alone isn’t enough to make him a real-deal contributor.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 377

Lynn Bowden, MIA: Players such as Taysom Hill and Deebo Samuel have blurred the lines of traditional offensive positions,
and that offers Bowden—a former slot receiver, returner, and quarterback in college —more of a chance to find an NFL role
than he would have had a decade earlier. It has been a rocky start to his career with a trade from the Raiders to the Dolphins as
a 2020 rookie and a hamstring injury that wiped out his 2021 season. But if Bowden needs a creative playcaller to unlock his
unusual skill set, a Shanahan disciple like Mike McDaniel may be his best chance.

Quintez Cephus, DET: A broken collarbone derailed an otherwise promising sophomore season from Cephus. He had 22
targets in only five games and produced fairly well (15-204-2 with 26.0% DVOA). What Cephus lacks in speed and explo-
siveness, he makes up for with physicality, vertical ability, and reliable hands. He is a true outside receiver who thrives in the
intermediate range. Going from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff directly hit Cephus’ average depth of target, which fell from
14.5 yards to 11.4.

Keke Coutee, IND: Originally drafted by the Texans in 2018, Coutee played somewhat well for Houston before being placed
on waivers by Houston Just before the start of last season. In 2020, Coutee caught 33 passes for 400 yards and three touchdowns
with 14.6% DVOA, primarily playing from the slot. He saw action in two games for the Colts in 2021, catching one pass. With
T.Y. Hilton no longer on the team, Coutee could be the speed element from the slot the Colts are looking for.

Frank Darby, ATL: Frank Darby, WR1? For a brief period of time, Darby was the only Falcons receiver who finished 2021 on
the 53-man roster and was still under contract for 2022. When your most experienced receiver has a career line of four targets
and one reception, that’s bad. Atlanta added plenty of players to their receiving corps since that point, so Darby will have to
fight for a special teams role.

Jaelon Darden, TB: Darden was effective as a punt returner, with 1.2 points of value placing him in the top 20 at the posi-
tion. He was significantly less effective as either a kick returner or a receiver, appearing near the bottom of both tables. Darden
showed some YAC ability in college and used that skill set on his returns, but he ended up with the lowest YAC+ of any receiver
with at least 10 targets last season at -4.3. That’s on just six catches, of course, and at least he has his punt return value to lean
on while he’s getting the whole receiving thing worked out.

Romeo Doubs, GB: Doubs was a machine in Nevada’s vertical Air Raid offense. A speed threat who flashed acrobatics at the
catch point, Doubs earned the highest first-down rate among qualifying receivers in this draft class, as well as a top-20 spot in
EPA/target in the entire country. He needs to refine his routes in order to become a true weapon, but he can be a quality role
player sooner than later thanks to his speed. Selected by Green Bay in the fourth round.

Ashton Dulin, IND: Dulin has seen consistent increases in playing time and production, mainly on the offensive side of the
ball. However, much of his production has come on special teams. Dulin was 14th in the league in return points added on
kickoffs on just eight attempts. Despite all the new additions to the roster, Dulin should be able to earn a roster spot just on
special teams value. However, his play last year (13-173-2, 7.6% DVOA) could also get him a spot on the offense as a depth
wide receiver.

Erik Ezukanma, MIA: New Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has eschewed size for speed with receiver additions Tyreek
Hill and Cedrick Wilson in what figures to be a Shanahan-influenced YAC-heavy offense. That makes the 6-foot-3, 220-pound
Ezukanma a compelling fourth-round draft selection. His bulk could fast-track at least a red zone role despite a modest total of
138 catches in his last three seasons at Texas Tech. Fellow Red Raiders alum and new Dolphins receivers coach Wes Welker
clearly saw something he liked.

Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN: It’s not typically a great sign when a fourth-round pick doesn’t make the initial roster out of training
camp. Fitzpatrick had a lackluster showing in the preseason but eventually was promoted from the practice squad in November
after Mike Vrabel praised his work ethic. His biggest contribution came when he turned six targets into three catches for 35
yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against the Texans. There isn’t a deep group in front of Fitzpatrick to break through, but that
was also the case last season.

Isaiah Ford, MIA: The Dolphins have done everything they can to get rid of Ford. They have waived him four times over the
last three seasons and traded him to the Patriots in between. But even after a head coaching change and major receiver additions
of Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Cedrick Wilson, Ford is somehow still with Miami. He’s no lock to be there in September,
but Ford’s speed could make him a scheme fit, and new receivers coach Wes Welker should be more open to a potential age-26
breakout from a former seventh-round draft pick than anyone.
378 WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS: Waived at last cuts, Gandy-Golden joined the Washington practice squad and ultimately
served in only four games between Weeks 5 and 8 while Dyami Brown and Curtis Samuel were dealing with lingering injuries.
Gandy-Golden hasn’t contributed much so far despite his 6-foot-4, 223-pound frame and will likely need an exceptional train-
ing camp to avoid the waiver wire again.

Marquise Goodwin, SEA: Goodwin is a relic of Kyle Shanahan’s now-absent “speed slot” role, shared by Aldrick Robinson,
Taylor Gabriel, and others at various stops. Goodwin netted 11 targets and five receptions on third/fourth down last season,
converting all five receptions into a first down, including Andy Dalton’s go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter versus
the Ravens (the Bears lost anyway, of course). Perhaps the 31-year-old speedster is running out of juice, but there are still worse
speed options out there. The Seahawks signed him in their never-ending quest for a decent third receiver.

Josh Gordon, KC: Gordon is unfulfilled potential wrapped up in a blanket of wish fulfillment. Rooting for him to emerge
healthy, sober, and well-adjusted from nearly a decade of issues and career interruptions won’t make that happen. Casting him
as the tragic victim of a callous and hidebound profession/league/society, accurate as that may be, won’t give him back any
years or result in any future touchdowns. It has now been four years since Gordon’s “good” 41-catch season in 2018. This will
probably be Gordon’s final Football Outsiders Almanac mention; may he find peace and grace in his private life.

Jakeem Grant, CLE: One of the NFL’s best returners, Grant has returned a punt or kickoff for a touchdown in five of his six
NFL seasons. His most memorable moment of 2021 is probably helping the Bears hang with the Packers for a half on Sunday
Night Football thanks to a punt return touchdown and a 46-yard scoring catch. The Browns will likely use the veteran mostly
as a returner unless some of their younger depth options don’t pan out.

Danny Gray, SF: A speedy rookie third-round pick, Gray spent the final two years of his college career as a key target for
SMU, emerging as the top option as a senior. Gray transferred to the Mustangs from Blinn College (the junior college Cam
Newton attended), and he has been on an upward trajectory since moving up to the FBS level. That said, Gray is already 23,
so his upside seems somewhat limited. Gray could see some work attacking down the field, but head coach Kyle Shanahan is
notoriously tough on his receivers, which may reduce Gray’s role as a rookie.

Cyril Grayson, TB: Small-sample size theatre, but Grayson’s 91.1% DVOA on 12 targets was the highest among all receivers
with double-digit targets. A lot of that came on the final drive with Tampa Bay making a comeback against the Jets in Week 17,
but production is production. Grayson’s speed makes him an intriguing deep option when the Buccaneers go four- or five-wide.
He may play a significant role early in the year if Chris Godwin’s recovery goes slowly. Not the worst player to throw a late-
round pick at in your fantasy league.

N’Keal Harry, NE: Three years after drafting him in the first round in 2019, the Patriots still have no idea what to do with
N’Keal Harry. Harry had the best year of his career from an efficiency standpoint, posting a positive DYAR and DVOA for the
first time in the NFL. His usage at this point, however, is becoming increasingly sparse. Despite staking so much of his value on
contested catches, Harry finished 12th in percentage of targets dropped among receivers with at least 10 targets. Any attempts
to resurrect this career are likely to happen outside of New England.

Kendall Hinton, DEN: Hinton will be remembered forever as the ultimate emergency quarterback of the 2020 season: an
undrafted rookie receiver elevated from the practice squad to keep the lights on during a 31-3 loss to the Saints in the midst
of a COVID crisis. Hinton served as the Broncos’ WR4 for much of last season, putting up decent numbers when both Jerry
Jeudy and KJ Hamler were hurt. The Broncos should keep Hinton around this year because you never know you need a bench
receiver/emergency quarterback with a strong immune system until you REALLY need one.

KhaDarel Hodge, ATL: Hodge has been a successful gunner for three teams in four seasons, with 100-plus special teams snaps
every year he has been healthy. As a receiver, well … he had something of a fluke season in 2020, when all 11 of his recep-
tions went for first downs. Last season, he averaged only 5.8 yards over 27 targets for Detroit, finishing 13-157-0 with -31.0%
DVOA. He may get some run in the Atlanta passing game due to a lack of quality talent there, but it’s his special teams work
that will keep him on the roster.

Mack Hollins, LV: Hollins was a special teams standout and well-regarded prospect when his Eagles career short-circuited at
just about the same time that Carson Wentz began making everyone who spent time around him consider their life choices. The
Dolphins used Hollins as a tall red zone target a few times in 2021 (three touchdowns on five targets inside the 10-yard line),
but Hollins’ primary role was as the guy mostly likely to down a punt inside the 5-yard line. Hollins projects as Josh McDaniels’
Matthew Slater surrogate, though he could earn some work as a possession target after the Bryan Edwards trade.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 379

Lil’Jordan Humphrey, NE: In 18 targets, Humphrey had a 64.6% DVOA, the highest in the league for wide receivers with
at least 15 targets. His 99 DYAR got him into the top 60, which is not bad for someone with very little actual work. With Chris
Olave in town, the Saints didn’t really have need for a little-used deep threat who doesn’t contribute on special teams. New
England picked him up in June for depth.

Andy Isabella, ARI: The diminutive speedster Isabella has really struggled to make an impression since being drafted in the
second round in 2019. After showing some very occasional flashes in his first two seasons, Isabella found himself thoroughly
outside the Cardinals’ receiver rotation in 2021, registering only one catch across eight games played. It is very difficult to make
a case that Isabella is any higher than fifth in the Arizona pecking order at receiver when DeAndre Hopkins is available, and he
may not make the final roster once the regular season starts.

Richie James, NYG: Before a knee injury wiped out his 2021 season, James’ playing time with the 49ers had been on the rise,
from 18.2% of offensive snaps in 2018 to 19.1% in 2019 to 37.0% in 2020. Since entering the league as a seventh-round pick
in 2018, he is one of seven players to average at least 18 yards per catch (minimum 30 catches). The Giants, though, are hoping
he can give their underwhelming return game a boost. His track record isn’t impressive. With the 49ers, he averaged 23.0 yards
returning kickoffs and 7.3 yards on punts.

Collin Johnson, NYG: Waived by the Jaguars on cut-down day, the 6-foot-6 Johnson landed with the team he should have
been playing for all along: the Giants. He made his season debut in Week 3, catching five passes for 51 yards. Then he went
quiet, catching only six passes for 54 yards the rest of the way. Behind at least five players on the Giants depth chart—Kenny
Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Wan’Dale Robinson—he’ll likely be on the move again.

Racey McMath, TEN: McMath didn’t have a lot of experience as a wide receiver in college and he didn’t get much more in
his rookie season. He at least showed enough to be a constant on special teams, playing 61% of Tennessee’s special teams snaps
(more than can be said for fourth-round pick Dez Fitzpatrick), but that may be where his size and speed max out.

Bo Melton, SEA: Seattle grabbed Melton, a smallish slot receiver/kick returner out of Rutgers, in the seventh round. He is
the eighth wide receiver ever drafted out of Rutgers, the first since Leonte Carroo in 2016. Melton brings versatility to the Se-
ahawks, having scored 11 touchdowns as a receiver, two as a rusher, and one on special teams for the Scarlet Knights. Seventh-
round rookies don’t often get much opportunity, but Seattle’s depth at the position is so barren that Melton could see significant
playing time.

Anthony Miller, PIT: One of Nick Caserio’s many reclamation projects, Miller was active just two weeks for the Texans
before being cut and getting signed by Pittsburgh. He had just a single target for the Steelers all last season and was mostly a
healthy scratch. It seems like a long time ago when Miller had a positive DVOA and 7 touchdowns as a rookie with the 2018
Bears, but he had nearly 500 yards just two years ago. After Pittsburgh’s injection of youth from George Pickens and Calvin
Austin, it would not be surprising if Miller is set loose at last cuts.

Scotty Miller, TB: Miller spent most of 2021 on injured reserve with turf toe. When he came back, he was missing some top-
end speed, and other receivers had stepped up into roles that Miller might have filled, leaving him a healthy scratch multiple
times down the stretch. Miller can be a solid third receiver, with 13.2% DVOA on more than 50 targets in 2020, but he may
have been passed on the totem pole too frequently for him to do so in Tampa Bay. If he ends up getting cut, he should land on
his feet elsewhere.

Dax Milne, WAS: One of Zach Wilson’s favorite targets at BYU, Milne had a very odd usage in 2022: No special teams snaps
at all, but a consistent two- to 12-snap role on offense while everyone was healthy. The lack of special teams play probably hurts
his chances to stick on the roster for another season, especially after Washington picked Jahan Dotson in the first round. When
asked by the Deseret News after the season what his teammates asked him about playing at BYU, Milne replied: “People ask
me if I have multiple moms, or multiple wives. That sort of thing.”

Denzel Mims, NYJ: A popular candidate to break out headed into 2021, Mims did anything but. Mims caught just eight passes
on the whole season, six of them in a four-week stretch in the middle of the year. With new blood coming in at the receiver
position, it’s unlikely that Mims will ever reach the standards assumed by a second-round receiver, but he could still play a
situational role in Mike LaFleur’s offense.
380 WIDE RECEIVERS

Ty Montgomery, NE: Montgomery should fit into a post-Deebo Samuel “wide back” world. Montgomery, who primarily
played wide receiver at Stanford, spent most of his NFL tenure as a running back before switching primarily to a wide receiver
for the Saints last year. Montgomery may be a do-it-all, but he didn’t do anything particularly well. He finished the year with 16
catches for only 95 yards, adding 44 yards on 15 carries, putting him deep into negative DYAR both as a runner and receiver.

Stanley Morgan, CIN: “Stanley is everybody’s favorite player on the team. But no one sees what he does.” That little blurb
of affirmation came courtesy of the most important person in Cincinnati, Joe Burrow, so Morgan’s role as an elite blocking
receiver and special teams contributor seems safe. He’s the sort of roster glue teams can afford when they have three elite wide-
outs who remain healthy; if any of the Bengals starters goes down, Morgan will be pressed into more action, and perhaps not
remain everyone’s favorite anymore.

Jalen Nailor, MIN: Health was Nailor’s biggest inhibitor throughout his college career. He regularly battled injuries and never
played more than nine games in a season at Minnesota. When healthy, however, Nailor was an electric deep threat from the
outside, showing off both the burst and build-up speed to be a menace down the field. Nailor is prone to being bullied by tough
cornerbacks and surrendering at the catch point, but his speed is worth a sixth-round dice roll.

Dazz Newsome, CHI: A sixth-round rookie out of North Carolina, Newsome hardly played last year, earning more punt returns
(six) than targets (five). As a receiver, Newsome doesn’t have a real calling card. He is fairly quick and flashes the ability to
find the ball well outside of his frame, but he doesn’t have the size to be an outside receiver, nor does he show consistent hands
or reliable route-running. Considering the number of receivers the Bears brought in this offseason, it’s possible Newsome is
fighting for a spot on the roster rather than his rank on the depth chart.

Dante Pettis, CHI: Once the Giants activated Pettis off the practice squad in Week 6, they proceeded to tell him to run 7 yards
and then turn around—except for one play in which he took the handoff on a reverse and completed a 16-yard pass to Daniel
Jones. Shades of his father, former major league outfielder Gary. Pettis, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury during
a punt return in Week 8, followed former Giants wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert to Chicago and will look to earn a spot on
his third team in five seasons.

Kyle Philips, TEN: At 5-foot-11 and 189 pounds, Tennessee’s fifth-round pick out of UCLA projects as a slot receiver in the
NFL. But not one of those quick, shifty slots, more like one who just knows where to go. Despite his size, Phillips played quite
well against man coverage (57% positive play rate per SIS). His path to immediate playing time could come as a punt returner,
where he had two collegiate career touchdowns and a career 19.3 yards per return average.

Andre Roberts, CAR: The Chargers signed Roberts to solve their kickoff and punt return problem after the Texans released
him last season. Roberts ran a kickoff back 101 yards for a touchdown against the Broncos in Week 17, then fumbled a punt
deep in his own territory to set up a Raiders touchdown in Week 18. Problem definitely not solved. The Chargers moved on to
DeAndre Carter, while the Panthers added Roberts because there’s nothing a flailing franchise needs more than a fading former
Pro Bowl return specialist joining his fourth team in three years.

Amari Rodgers, GB: Being a rookie in the NFL is hard, but Rodgers was a big fat zero last year. A third-rounder out of Clem-
son, Rodgers earned only eight targets, including three in the Sunday night game against Arizona when the Packers were miss-
ing their top three receivers, and three more in Week 18, a meaningless charade for a 13-3 Packers team that had already locked
up the No.1 seed. Rodgers’ -3.4 punt return points were also the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. It’s not a good sign for Rodgers
that Green Bay drafted three receivers in hopes of replacing him.

John Ross, FA: John Ross started the 2021 season the only way John Ross could: on injured reserve. The Giants activated him
in Week 4, and he immediately showcased his game-breaking speed, hitting 21.13 mph on a 51-yard catch (he fumbled just
shy of the goal line but immediately recovered to score his first touchdown since Week 2 of the 2019 season). The moment was
fleeting, however, and Ross slowly faded down the stretch. He missed Weeks 15 and 16 after testing positive for COVID-19
and was inactive for Weeks 17 and 18. Of course. He remains unsigned.

Mohamed Sanu, FA: Sanu spent the first half of 2021 as the 49ers’ No. 4 receiver before going down with a knee injury that
ultimately ended his season. Sanu is currently unsigned, and if this is it for him, he can hold his head high after 10 seasons in
the league. His receiving statistics have never been anything too special, but it is worth noting that he finished his career with
four touchdowns on eight pass attempts as a trick play weapon thanks to his background as a high school quarterback.
 WIDE RECEIVERS 381

Khalil Shakir, BUF: It is tempting to compare Shakir to Deebo Samuel because of the former’s competitiveness, consistent
yards after the catch, and near tripling of college carries (71 at Boise State) versus Samuel (25 at South Carolina). But while
Shakir should excel on jet sweeps at the next level, his 6-foot-0 and 190-pound frame has him 25 pounds shy of Samuel and
likely too lean to see consistent backfield touches. Perhaps that explains the gap between his No. 10 ranking in Playmaker Score
and fifth-round draft selection that had him the 21st wide receiver taken in 2022.

Trent Sherfield, MIA: Sherfield rode a top-six total of 156 preseason receiving yards into a surprising early-season No. 3 re-
ceiver role for the 2021 49ers. And while that playing time faded as the season went on, it makes sense that new Dolphins head
coach Mike McDaniel signed his former player. Sherfield knows McDaniel’s presumably Shanahan-inspired offensive system.
Sherfield is also a reliable special teams player with a top-25 total of 16 return stops over the last three seasons.

Cam Sims, WAS: A big body at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, Sims was mostly a bystander on offense even with the injuries the then-
Football Team dealt with. He started the final three games of the season and produced just 48 scoreless yards. The 26-year-old
is likely to find his way into a roster spot, but only $750,000 of his $2.5-million deal is guaranteed. He’s a nice role player, and
probably would have produced better if Washington had better quarterback play, but he’s no hidden gem.

Ben Skowronek, LAR: The seventh-round draftee enjoyed some bright days in his rookie season—three catches for 30 yards
against Houston, four for 42 against Seattle—but he is best known for a pair of postseason drops: a would-be long touchdown
against San Francisco and a bobble that turned into an interception against Cincinnati. Kick returner Brandon Powell is L.A.’s
only other backup receiver to have ever caught a pass in the NFL, so Skowronek is just one injury away from getting a chance
to redeem himself.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN: Smith-Marsette was one of six wide receivers with fewer than 10 receptions but at least two
touchdowns last season. He scored on a wide-open red zone corner route in the Week 14 game, then torched the Bears’ sec-
ondary on a 44-yarder down the middle in their second meeting. Now in his second year out of Iowa, Smith-Marsette ideally
provides the Vikings with depth both inside and outside, showing the athleticism, crisp route-running, and effective underneath
YAC ability to blossom into a capable role player. That said, he was a healthy scratch for about half of last year.

Auden Tate, ATL: Tate had four targets last season. He was a healthy scratch 10 times. Had he signed anywhere else he may
not have even received a write-up. But Atlanta was so barren that Tate became penciled in as a starter when he signed in March,
before the additions of Drake London and Bryan Edwards. Tate ranked 69th with a -13.4% DVOA in 2019, the one year he
qualified for our leaderboards. He fits Atlanta’s theme of getting the largest receivers they can find, but that size rarely translated
into production in Cincinnati.

Trent Taylor, CIN: Taylor caught just two passes in 2021, but he became totemic in Cincinnati’s surprise run to the Super Bowl
after catching a crucial two-point conversion in the AFC Championship Game—on a play designed for him! Parlaying that
lonely moment into a larger role in 2022 seems a long shot, but then so were the odds the Bengals would be AFC champions.

Mike Thomas, CIN: Life in the NFL is tough enough; Thomas has to also worry about being confused not only with the far
better-known Michael Thomas of the Saints but also fellow Bengals player Michael Thomas, a reserve safety. This particular
Mike Thomas might become better known soon, should he remain Cincinnati’s fourth wideout—the three starters were freak-
ishly healthy in 2021, and if one or more goes down in 2022 and Thomas has to play extended snaps, all eyes will be on him.
With just 28 catches in six pro seasons and -39.0% DVOA over the last three, Thomas’ best move might be to work on his
first-aid skills in the offseason.

Samori Toure, GB: Toure, who started off at Montana before playing a graduate year at Nebraska, has all the makings of a
solid career as a fourth or fifth receiver. Toure brings inside-outside versatility as well as enough short-area burst and smooth-
ness to be a viable YAC guy underneath. Toure also shows reliable hands whenever the ball is inside his frame. All of those
traits allowed Toure to rank 20th in the nation last year in EPA/target. However, his lack of long speed, robotic route-running,
and lack of dynamic catch ability limit his potential as a legit starter. Selected by Green Bay in the seventh round.

Malik Turner, SF: Turner has bounced around the league a bit since debuting in 2018, never exceeding 15 receptions in any of
his four seasons. He spent the past two years in Dallas after being claimed off waivers from Green Bay in 2020, and he played
sparingly for the Cowboys in 2021, primarily when other receivers such as Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson were unavail-
able. Turner signed with the 49ers this offseason and faces an uphill battle to make an impact given the incumbent talent in San
Francisco, but he may see a few games due to injuries.
382 WIDE RECEIVERS

Tylan Wallace, BAL: After a great career at Oklahoma State, Wallace was drafted in the fourth round in 2021, then promptly
disappeared into Baltimore’s passing game morass. The field is open for Wallace to make much more out of his sophomore
campaign, and his aggressive ball skills and smooth route-running remain intact. A deep—almost subterranean—fantasy sleep-
er if he gets his crack.

Greg Ward, PHI: The player Jalen Hurts has thrown the most touchdowns to? Greg Ward with six, including three in 2021
despite a greatly diminished role. After playing 70.1% of the offense’s snaps and leading the team in targets (79), catches (53),
and touchdown receptions (6) in 2020, Ward played 21.9% of the offense’s snaps and saw only 11 targets last season. Mean-
while, his special teams snaps doubled. Ward has had an on-again, off-again relationship with the Eagles since 2017, so even if
he’s not on the roster Week 1, it’s probably not the last you’ve seen of him.

Montrell Washington, DEN: The Broncos project Washington, their 181-pound fifth-round pick out of Samford, as a return
specialist. “We feel like he can be a dual returner for us, he’s explosive,” GM George Paton said during OTAs. “He’s explosive.
He is. It was a major emphasis.” Yep, explosive, explosive. Got it, Georgie Two Times. There should be room at the bottom of
the Broncos receiver depth chart for both Washington and ever-ready emergency quarterback Kendall Hinton, but there won’t
be much room for either of them in the offensive huddle.

Dede Westbrook, FA: Westbrook was a promising young role player for the Jaguars before tearing his ACL early in 2020. In
Minnesota last year, Westbrook hardly played on offense, save for some desperate must-pass situations that featured four wide
receivers. However, in his final two years with the Jaguars, Westbrook earned over 100 targets in each season, mostly in the
short area of the field. That allowed Westbrook’s quick-twitch and YAC skills to be at the forefront, which should be the plan
for whichever team signs him (assuming he has anything left).

Preston Williams, MIA: Williams wasn’t a typical undrafted free agent prospect; character concerns cost him the draft selec-
tion his 96-catch, 14-touchdown breakout 2018 season at Colorado State would likely have landed him. And that may explain
the Dolphins’ decision to re-sign him this offseason after the expiration of his rookie deal. But Williams has ended each of his
three professional seasons early with knee or foot injuries and faces a difficult road to make Miami’s final roster.

Juwann Winfree, GB: Winfree entered the NFL three years ago with the Broncos, but only saw his first targets last year with
the Packers, largely due to circumstance. Nine of his 13 targets came during the absurd Cardinals match of Week 8, in which
the Packers were missing their three best receivers, or in Week 18 against the Lions, a game in which the Packers played their
backups in the second half because why not. Winfree probably won’t enter the season on the Packers roster.

Michael Woods, CLE: Woods has a leg up on a couple of other promising UDFAs such as Isaiah Weston by virtue of his sixth-
round draft selection, but the Browns are four-deep ahead of him before our publishing deadline and may add a Will Fuller
or Odell Beckham to that. One of three Oklahoma players drafted by the Browns this year—see, they DID care about Baker
Mayfield’s feelings!—Woods tied for second on the Sooners with 35 catches in what was an extremely balanced attack. He
projects as an underneath threat replacement for Rashard Higgins.

Dareke Young, SEA: Seattle grabbed Young, a big wideout out of Lenoir-Rhyne (Hickory, N.C.), in the seventh round. He
joins New England’s Kyle Dugger as the only draft picks ever from Lenoir-Rhyne. Young brings versatility to the Seahawks,
with more action as a runner (88-658-7.5-8) than as a receiver (73-1,176-16.1-16) for the Bears. Seventh-round rookies don’t
often get much opportunity, but Seattle’s depth at the position is so barren that … well, you know.

Brandon Zylstra, CAR: Zylstra beat out Terrace Marshall for snaps when he wasn’t injured, going 18-250-1 with 23.7%
DVOA. Carolina is hoping Marshall takes that next step forward this season, and the addition of Rashard Higgins would likely
bump Zylstra down to WR5, at best. But Zylstra remains an important part of Carolina’s special teams unit, so he shouldn’t
have to worry about a roster spot regardless of his role in the offense.
 Tight Ends
Top 20 TE by DYAR Top 20 TE by DVOA
(Total Value), 2021 (Value per Pass), 2021
Rank Player Team DYAR Rank Player Team DVOA
1 Mark Andrews BAL 306 1 Dallas Goedert PHI 34.7%
2 Travis Kelce KC 257 2 Hunter Henry NE 25.9%
3 Dallas Goedert PHI 220 3 Mark Andrews BAL 23.9%
4 Dalton Schultz DAL 191 4 Travis Kelce KC 21.3%
5 Hunter Henry NE 174 5 Dalton Schultz DAL 20.3%
6 George Kittle SF 166 6 George Kittle SF 20.1%
7 Rob Gronkowski TB 160 7 Harrison Bryant CLE 19.8%
8 Dawson Knox BUF 127 8 Logan Thomas WAS 18.9%
9 Kyle Pitts ATL 122 9 Rob Gronkowski TB 18.7%
10 C.J. Uzomah CIN 76 10 Dawson Knox BUF 18.6%
11 David Njoku CLE 71 11 David Njoku CLE 13.0%
12 T.J. Hockenson DET 71 12 C.J. Uzomah CIN 11.7%
13 Tyler Higbee LAR 60 13 Durham Smythe MIA 9.9%
14 Harrison Bryant CLE 55 14 Kyle Pitts ATL 9.0%
15 Noah Fant DEN 53 15 John Bates WAS 8.2%
16 Pat Freiermuth PIT 52 16 Donald Parham LAC 7.3%
17 Durham Smythe MIA 47 17 Robert Tonyan GB 6.4%
18 Logan Thomas WAS 46 18 T.J. Hockenson DET 5.2%
19 Gerald Everett SEA 37 19 Tyler Kroft NYJ 4.0%
20 Robert Tonyan GB 31 20 Tyler Higbee LAR 2.8%
Minimum 25 passes. Minimum 25 passes.

Jordan Akins Height: 6-4 Weight: 243 College: Central Florida Draft: 2018/3 (98) Born: 19-Apr-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 HOU 16/9 672 55 36 418 2 3 65% -1.8 3 11.6 7.1 23 6.8 4 +1.9 10 -5.6% 27 6 27 10.6% 30 40% 0%
2020 HOU 13/5 405 49 37 403 1 6 76% +3.4 3 10.9 7.5 20 4.6 22 +0.2 6 12.4% 15 65 16 11.4% 24 20% 4%
2021 HOU 13/3 327 33 24 214 0 2 73% +0.8 1 8.9 6.3 29 3.4 50 -1.3 4 -20.8% 47 -28 47 8.1% 40 18% 6%
2022 NYG 29 19 180 1 66% 9.5 -22.1%

Things were looking up for Akins. He was coming off a solid season. His new head coach had been the passing game coordi-
nator for a tight end-friendly offense. And with Darren Fells out of the picture, Akins figured he was in line for a larger role in
2021. Instead, the Texans phased in fifth-round rookie Brevin Jordan while Akins, a healthy scratch for three games, ended up
playing the fewest snaps of his career. He’s no lock to make the Giants’ Week 1 roster—he signed a one-year deal that contains
just $50,000 in guaranteed money—but his ties to tight ends coach Andy Bischoff can only help his cause.

Mo Alie-Cox Height: 6-5 Weight: 267 College: Virginia Commonwealth Draft: 2017/FA Born: 19-Sep-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 IND 16/2 357 11 8 93 0 1 73% +0.3 1 11.6 4.4 -- 7.5 -- +2.9 2 13.6% -- 14 -- 2.2% -- 0% 0%
2020 IND 15/6 503 39 31 394 2 3 79% +5.0 1 12.7 6.8 38 5.9 8 +1.2 2 14.7% 12 57 17 7.8% 37 32% 3%
2021 IND 17/7 610 45 24 316 4 7 53% -3.1 2 13.2 9.9 6 6.3 14 +1.9 3 -3.9% 29 10 30 8.9% 34 50% 2%
2022 IND 38 26 309 2 68% 11.9 2.8%

Alie-Cox has been thrust into the role of TE1 after the retirement of Jack Doyle. The former basketball player hasn’t played
much in Frank Reich’s offense, but re-signing Alie-Cox for $18 million over three years means the Colts have high hopes for
383
384 TIGHT ENDS

him to take a larger role. Our KUBIAK projections don’t expect it. As for last year’s big decline in catch rate, perhaps Carson
Wentz just thought Alie-Cox was faster than he really is? Eleven of Alie-Cox’s 21 incomplete passes were charted as over-
thrown or thrown in front of him.

Mark Andrews Height: 6-5 Weight: 255 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2018/3 (86) Born: 6-Sep-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 BAL 15/4 467 98 64 852 10 13 65% +1.2 4 13.3 10.6 1 4.5 29 +0.6 9 12.1% 15 123 7 24.5% 2 72% 2%
2020 BAL 14/2 597 88 58 701 7 13 66% +0.6 5 12.1 10.6 5 3.1 45 -0.8 4 1.6% 25 52 19 25.8% 2 67% 1%
2021 BAL 17/9 936 153 107 1361 9 16 70% +8.3 4 12.7 10.3 3 4.2 41 +0.1 11 24.6% 3 310 1 25.6% 1 69% 6%
2022 BAL 114 81 976 7 71% 12.0 12.5%

When we note that no team targeted its tight ends more than the Ravens, what that really means is “Mark Andrews is awe-
some.” Andrews easily led all tight ends in targets and still produced the top efficiency numbers in the sport—and with three
different quarterbacks doing the passing. An amazing season, one that might convince the savvy fantasy player that Andrews,
and not Travis Kelce, should be TE1 come draft night. (We still have Kelce on top, however.) Weirdly, with all that action,
Andrews never drew a pass interference flag—he drew three in his rookie year, but has only one in the three years since. What’s
a guy gotta do around here to get respect from the officials? Now that he is a grizzled veteran entering his age-27 season,
Andrews—on top of being the team’s lone proven receiving commodity—is expected to mentor the two rookie tight ends the
Ravens picked in the fourth round. That’s the NFL for you—no matter how good you are, the team is always grooming your
replacement.

Dan Arnold Height: 6-6 Weight: 220 College: Wisconsin–Platteville Draft: 2017/FA Born: 15-Mar-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 2TM 5/1 105 14 8 127 2 3 57% +0.4 0 15.9 13.0 -- 3.6 -- -0.1 0 16.6% -- 21 -- 8.1% -- 57% 0%
2020 ARI 16/5 470 45 31 438 4 5 69% +3.9 2 14.1 12.4 1 5.6 13 +1.1 0 26.7% 7 101 8 8.3% 36 40% 4%
2021 2TM 11/4 363 52 35 408 0 2 67% +0.9 2 11.7 6.5 27 5.4 20 +0.7 2 -10.8% 39 -12 39 14.1% 20 64% 4%
2022 JAX 40 29 324 2 73% 11.2 2.2%

Arnold seemed like an afterthought in the trade that sent cornerback CJ Henderson to the Panthers, but the Jaguars had pur-
sued him in free agency before he signed with Carolina. Once in Jacksonville, Arnold became a quietly solid receiving option
in the Jaguars offense. As an in-line tight end, Arnold posted an 11.7% DVOA on 17 passes, by far Jacksonville’s best receiving
option at the position in 2021. Doug Pederson’s offense loves using multiple tight ends, so you’ll see plenty of Arnold playing
next to Evan Engram this season.

Cameron Brate Height: 6-5 Weight: 245 College: Harvard Draft: 2014/FA Born: 3-Jul-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 TB 16/6 437 55 36 311 4 3 65% -1.2 3 8.6 7.0 24 2.5 48 -1.6 3 -8.0% 32 -3 32 8.9% 37 49% 4%
2020 TB 16/1 318 34 28 282 2 3 82% +3.8 1 10.1 8.6 10 2.5 48 -1.3 0 22.8% 9 65 14 5.4% 46 53% 6%
2021 TB 17/3 469 57 30 245 4 9 53% -4.6 3 8.2 7.7 19 2.7 55 -1.1 0 -20.8% 48 -53 51 8.0% 41 51% 2%
2022 TB 38 22 230 2 58% 10.5 -15.6%

With all the various receiver injuries Tampa Bay suffered down the stretch last season, it’s odd that Brate didn’t end up tak-
ing on a larger share of the targets during the Buccaneers’ playoff push. Brate had more than four targets only three times last
season, none of which came after Thanksgiving. Then again, maybe his lack of success had something to do with the offense
avoiding him; his -20.8% DVOA was the worst in his career so far. With Rob Gronkowski retired, Brate is penciled in as the
starter, and that’s a downgrade. Per Next Gen Stats, Gronk led the Bucs with 3.4 yards of separation per target; Brate was down
at 2.6, worst on the team.
 TIGHT ENDS 385

Pharaoh Brown Height: 6-6 Weight: 258 College: Oregon Draft: 2017/FA Born: 4-May-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 CLE 9/6 182 3 2 27 0 0 67% +0.5 0 13.5 9.0 -- 7.0 -- +2.8 0 -1.7% -- 1 -- 1.0% -- 33% 0%
2020 HOU 13/9 270 16 14 163 2 2 88% +3.0 0 11.6 7.9 -- 5.4 -- +1.3 5 37.4% -- 49 -- 3.7% -- 25% 6%
2021 HOU 15/12 605 34 23 171 0 0 68% -1.3 2 7.4 4.4 49 4.6 33 -1.5 5 -35.3% 55 -63 54 7.4% 42 21% 0%
2022 HOU 28 22 204 2 79% 9.3 -2.5%

Brown was one of 22 tight ends with at least 300 blocking snaps in 2021, and one of five with a blown-block rate under
1.0%. On 78 pass-blocking snaps (tied for the 10th most among tight ends), Brown had only one blown block and one hold.
That’s where he has provided his best value even while he has gotten a little more involved in the passing game as a receiver.
Even then, his best plays came in limited action on third down as a chip-and-release option—14.6% DVOA on six passes. If
Pep Hamilton’s Houston offense looks like it did during his last run as offensive coordinator in Indianapolis, that type of tight
end role could be quite useful.

Harrison Bryant Height: 6-5 Weight: 240 College: Florida Atlantic Draft: 2020/4 (115) Born: 23-Apr-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2020 CLE 15/9 590 38 24 238 3 5 63% -1.7 3 9.9 8.2 12 4.9 19 +0.9 4 -18.8% 43 -33 43 9.0% 35 45% 10%
2021 CLE 16/3 402 28 21 233 3 5 75% +2.9 0 11.1 9.2 10 3.8 46 -0.2 1 19.6% 8 54 14 5.8% 50 32% 18%
2022 CLE 56 35 385 3 63% 11.0 -9.4%

Cleveland’s third tight end got solid enough run as the Browns used plenty of sets with three tight ends—19 of Bryant’s 29
targets came with three tight ends on the field—and improved as a pass-catcher in his second season. The blocking could have
gone better, but that’s not really why Cleveland drafted him after he won the John Mackey Award in his senior season at Florida
Atlantic. With Austin Hooper off to Tennessee, it’s reasonable to expect another step forward from Bryant. David Njoku is get-
ting a lot of target hype, but Bryant has been every bit as good as Njoku through his first 60 targets.

Tyler Conklin Height: 6-3 Weight: 254 College: Central Michigan Draft: 2018/5 (157) Born: 30-Jul-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 MIN 15/1 276 10 8 58 0 1 80% +1.6 0 7.3 6.1 -- 2.3 -- -3.2 0 -27.9% -- -14 -- 2.4% -- 10% 0%
2020 MIN 16/2 448 26 19 194 1 1 73% +0.7 1 10.2 4.4 48 6.6 4 +1.5 4 -1.2% 27 11 30 5.3% 48 8% 0%
2021 MIN 17/15 924 87 61 593 3 8 70% -0.7 2 9.7 5.3 45 5.3 21 +0.1 2 -14.8% 41 -41 50 15.1% 15 20% 5%
2022 NYJ 36 26 248 1 72% 9.5 -9.2%

After the Minnesota Vikings lost Kyle Rudolph in free agency, Conklin took over the role as lead tight end. While over 60%
of his career receiving yards and three of his four touchdowns came last, his DVOA and DYAR were much better when he was
a second tight end. His effectiveness should be much improved alongside C.J. Uzomah in the Jets’ offense. Considering that
the Jets ran 20% of their snaps in 12 personnel, the roles of Conklin and Uzomah play can complement each other well. But the
Jets don’t run enough 12 personnel to make either one of them draftable in fantasy this year.
One thing you can count on: if Conklin is on the field, it’s probably to get the ball in his hands. Conklin led all tight ends in
blown blocks, allowing 11 on pass plays and five on runs.

Jared Cook Height: 6-5 Weight: 254 College: South Carolina Draft: 2009/3 (89) Born: 7-Apr-1987 Age: 35 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 NO 14/7 513 65 43 705 9 11 66% +3.3 4 16.4 10.5 2 5.8 9 +2.4 5 37.7% 1 205 2 13.3% 21 68% 12%
2020 NO 15/5 466 60 37 504 7 9 62% -0.6 4 13.6 11.6 2 3.4 41 -0.1 5 13.9% 13 88 11 12.6% 21 67% 15%
2021 LAC 16/10 644 83 48 564 4 9 58% -4.4 6 11.8 8.3 12 5.0 26 +0.8 3 -5.4% 31 10 29 13.3% 22 63% 1%

Cook dropped six passes last season, including what should have been an easy 2-yard touchdown before halftime against the
Chiefs in Week 15. That drop may have been the swan song to a shockingly long career for one of the NFL’s most notorious
disaster artists. Cook dropped passes and lost fumbles for both Jeff Fisher’s Titans and Rams before embarking on a world tour,
386 TIGHT ENDS

dropping nine passes for the 2018 Raiders but still earning a hitch as Drew Brees’ late-career tight end. Cook’s seam-stretching
speed and athleticism kept him on the field through all the miscues, but he lost a step last year and turned 35 in April. Cook’s
legacy lives on in Evan Engram, and we are fortunate Cook never hooked up with Carson Wentz: their combined anti-clutch
capabilities could cause the earth to forget which direction to rotate late in the fourth quarter.

Josiah Deguara Height: 6-2 Weight: 240 College: Cincinnati Draft: 2020/3 (94) Born: 14-Feb-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2020 GB 2/1 31 2 1 12 0 0 50% -0.3 0 12.0 12.0 -- 11.0 -- +6.5 0 -33.6% -- -4 -- 3.1% -- 0% 0%
2021 GB 16/2 367 33 25 245 2 5 76% +0.6 3 9.8 3.5 54 8.2 2 +2.2 2 -8.7% 35 -3 35 6.0% 49 38% 3%
2022 GB 29 21 214 2 72% 10.2 0.5%

Deguara is still trying to find his footing in the NFL, but he was forced into a regular role with the Packers offense last season
thanks to Robert Tonyan’s injury. The Packers used Deguara in a completely different way, though. Deguara’s 3.5-yard aver-
age depth of target was the lowest mark among qualifying tight ends, and only a couple of other players were below 4.0 yards.
To his credit, Deguara averaged 8.2 yards after catch, second best in the league, but that is also a function of how many of his
receptions came as the short option on rollouts or on shallows, which the Packers typically did well to open up. With Tonyan
healthy and Marcedes Lewis returning, it’s tough to say how much Deguara will play, but good on the Packers for having a
useful No. 3 tight end.

Will Dissly Height: 6-4 Weight: 267 College: Washington Draft: 2018/4 (120) Born: 8-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 SEA 6/6 256 27 23 262 4 5 85% +5.5 0 11.4 9.5 9 3.0 42 -1.5 1 36.0% 2 74 13 14.4% 18 30% 7%
2020 SEA 16/12 557 29 24 251 2 4 83% +1.8 2 10.5 4.8 47 7.0 2 +2.1 5 13.3% 14 42 20 5.3% 47 10% 3%
2021 SEA 15/14 512 26 21 231 1 0 81% +1.5 3 11.0 4.3 51 6.8 8 +2.2 3 0.6% 25 14 27 6.1% 48 27% 8%
2022 SEA 31 21 213 1 68% 10.1 -9.0%

Good things happen when the Seahawks throw the ball to Dissly. His DVOA and DYAR in 2021 suffered from a series of
failed screens and checkdowns, but when the Seahawks threw him the ball at least 4 yards downfield, he caught 11 of 14 tar-
gets for 199 yards. In his career, he has averaged a 79.2% catch rate and 9.4 yards per target, similar numbers to those of Rob
Gronkowski (64.7%/9.7) and Travis Kelce (70.8%/9.1). Obviously, it’s easier to be efficient as the fourth or fifth weapon in
Seattle instead of the cornerstone in New England or Kansas City, but the Seahawks seem to agree that Dissly deserves more
targets, signing him to a three-year deal in March with over $10 million in guarantees. That contract puts Dissly in the top 20
at his position in 2022 cap hit and the top 10 in actual cash paid, and tight ends don’t often get that kind of money if they’re
not going to be a big part of the passing game. Then again, it appears the Seahawks are on a constant mission to block Dissly’s
playing time, bringing in Noah Fant this year like they brought in Gerald Everett in 2021 and Greg Olsen in 2020. Seattle uses
more two-tight end sets than most teams, but even they had at least three wide receivers on the field on nearly two-thirds of
offensive snaps last year, and there’s still only one ball to go around.

Greg Dulcich Height: 6-3 Weight: 245 College: UCLA Draft: 2022/3 (80) Born: 26-Mar-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2022 DEN 21 16 163 1 76% 10.2 -1.3%

Many rookie tight ends in the deep 2022 class drew comparisons to Jimmy Graham, Austin Hooper, Dallas Goedert, or even
Eric Green. Only one drew comparisons to Yanni. Dulcich has luxurious locks of love and a mustache worthy of the Pornhub
Criterion Collection. He was also a credible deep threat in Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense, with 37 targets of 10-plus air yards
and 17.3 yards per reception in 2021. Dulcich should take over Albert Okwuegbunam’s former role as the ultra-talented TE2
as Okwuegbunam moves up to replace Noah Fant. The only thing that may keep Nathaniel Hackett from deploying lots of 12
personnel is the fact that the Broncos also have four very talented wide receivers and two solid running backs.
 TIGHT ENDS 387

Evan Engram Height: 6-3 Weight: 240 College: Mississippi Draft: 2017/2 (23) Born: 2-Sep-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 NYG 8/6 454 68 44 467 3 3 65% -4.0 3 10.6 5.8 36 5.7 11 +0.8 2 -15.7% 36 -37 41 22.9% 6 46% 7%
2020 NYG 16/14 837 109 63 654 1 5 58% -11.4 8 10.4 7.3 24 4.6 24 -0.9 6 -24.0% 47 -114 49 22.3% 5 64% 4%
2021 NYG 15/12 722 73 46 408 3 3 63% -4.8 5 8.9 5.2 47 4.0 45 -1.2 2 -24.2% 52 -81 55 14.9% 16 67% 5%
2022 JAX 73 49 497 3 67% 10.1 -8.4%

Let’s make one thing clear: Evan Engram rarely lines up in line as a tight end. Over the past two years, Engram has seen 123
targets from the slot. His drop rate remains alarming, though Giants fans blew the situation a bit out of proportion. Engram’s
ever-decreasing yards per catch and yards per target (5.6 ypt in 2021, down from 9.0 in 2018) are also worries; the general in-
competence of the Giants offense should bear part of the blame, but it’s hard to separate the toolsy-but-mistake-prone Engram
from his environment at this point.
Engram is on a one-year prove-it deal in Jacksonville, which is another odd choice by Trent Baalke: if Engram does indeed
“prove it,” he will be due for a hefty raise. If Engram does for Trevor Lawrence what he did for Daniel Jones—look the part of
a playmaking slot weapon until he drops a wide-open 25-yarder up the seam—he may turn out to be Baalke’s biggest mistake
of a very risky offseason.

Zach Ertz Height: 6-5 Weight: 250 College: Stanford Draft: 2013/2 (35) Born: 10-Nov-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 PHI 15/15 953 135 88 916 6 9 65% -2.1 7 10.4 8.7 13 2.9 44 -1.1 8 -4.3% 26 27 22 23.8% 5 59% 4%
2020 PHI 11/11 634 72 36 335 1 2 50% -10.1 5 9.3 7.5 21 2.4 49 -2.2 1 -37.2% 50 -144 50 18.4% 7 73% 1%
2021 2TM 17/14 848 112 74 763 5 9 66% -3.0 4 10.3 7.6 20 4.6 35 -0.2 4 -6.6% 32 5 32 21.9% 5 54% 3%
2022 ARI 86 58 594 3 67% 10.2 -5.8%

Ertz was traded to Arizona in the middle of the 2021 season as the Eagles decided to make a full transition to the younger
Dallas Goedert. When Arizona’s Week 1 starter Maxx Williams tore his ACL against San Francisco, it opened up the opportu-
nity for Ertz to move to the desert, and Ertz started every game from the moment he hit the field for the Cardinals. If you had
Ertz on a fantasy team in a points-per-reception league, you were probably at least OK with it given the dearth of options at
the position, but from a real-life perspective, most of Ertz’s work was fairly inefficient. Ertz will turn 32 during the season, and
given his trajectory over the past few years, he may not be a major contributor for much longer. However, Arizona signed him
to a three-year deal with $14.5 million fully guaranteed this offseason, meaning that they probably see him as a meaningful
piece of the offense at least through 2023.

Gerald Everett Height: 6-3 Weight: 240 College: South Alabama Draft: 2017/2 (44) Born: 25-Jun-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 LAR 13/2 453 60 37 408 2 3 62% -1.0 1 11.0 8.0 17 4.8 26 +0.3 14 -10.4% 34 -13 34 12.1% 24 51% 18%
2020 LAR 16/7 636 62 41 417 1 3 66% -1.5 7 10.2 6.2 44 5.9 7 +0.9 12 -7.3% 34 0 34 11.1% 27 37% 21%
2021 SEA 15/12 650 63 48 478 4 5 76% +4.5 3 10.0 5.2 46 5.2 23 +0.0 14 1.2% 24 37 19 14.8% 17 46% 6%
2022 LAC 56 39 392 3 70% 10.1 -4.1%

The Chargers may be replacing Jared Cook with Younger Jared Cook. Everett played well for the Seahawks early in the 2021
season but fumbled twice in a Week 12 loss to the 49ers and dropped a perfectly-thrown touchdown pass in the season finale.
The Seahawks added Noah Fant in the Russell Wilson trade and merrily moved on from Everett, who had earlier worn out his
welcome with the Rams with seven drops in 2020. Like Cook, Everett looks the part as an ultra-athletic seam-stretching tight
end and will cause his share of matchup problems when not making critical mistakes. If Everett flops, the Chargers may find
that there are no more blundering Rams tight ends around for them to give third-to-seventh chances to. Maybe Tyler Higbee
will lock his keys inside his car or something.
388 TIGHT ENDS

Noah Fant Height: 6-4 Weight: 249 College: Iowa Draft: 2019/1 (20) Born: 20-Nov-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 DEN 16/11 703 66 40 562 3 8 61% +0.2 4 14.1 7.6 21 8.3 1 +2.4 8 -5.9% 28 6 28 13.4% 20 23% 6%
2020 DEN 15/14 732 93 62 673 3 4 67% -3.9 3 10.9 6.7 39 6.1 6 +1.0 9 -1.0% 26 37 22 18.1% 9 16% 3%
2021 DEN 16/16 843 90 68 670 4 6 76% +4.8 0 9.9 6.0 32 4.7 31 -0.1 7 2.3% 22 52 15 18.2% 10 25% 0%
2022 SEA 67 46 470 3 69% 10.2 -4.9%

Seattle insisted on Fant’s inclusion as part of the Russell Wilson trade and promptly picked up his fifth-year option for 2023.
In June, Pete Carroll singled Fant out as having “maybe the most spectacular [minicamp] of everybody” while ESPN’s Brady
Henderson reported that the Seahawks expected their new quarterback would throw to tight ends more than Russell Wilson
used to. That may well be true as only six teams threw fewer passes to tight ends than Seattle did last season. Then again, that
new quarterback is going to be either Drew Lock or Geno Smith, so the number of accurate passes thrown to tight ends may
not change much at all.
In an interview with Zach Bye and Brandon Stokley on Denver radio station 104.3 The Fan, Fant said he was “frustrated”
in Pat Shurmur’s offense, which asked him to break tackles in the flats instead of running deep routes. Nobody tell him that in
Shane Waldron’s offense, Seahawks tight ends had a 5.0-yard average depth of target, third shortest in the league.

Anthony Firkser Height: 6-2 Weight: 246 College: Harvard Draft: 2017/FA Born: 19-Feb-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 TEN 15/1 202 24 14 204 1 1 58% -0.9 1 14.6 10.0 5 5.1 16 +1.1 1 13.0% 12 31 20 6.1% 44 84% 4%
2020 TEN 16/1 348 53 39 387 1 4 74% +2.1 1 9.9 7.0 34 3.7 38 -0.5 4 2.8% 24 36 23 11.5% 23 74% 2%
2021 TEN 15/1 396 43 34 291 2 3 79% +2.6 4 8.6 5.8 35 3.3 51 -1.0 0 -4.9% 30 6 31 9.4% 32 75% 0%
2022 ATL 20 13 133 1 65% 10.2 -17.9%

Firkser is coming off of his worst season as a pro, setting career lows in DVOA, DYAR, and yards per reception. Part of that
can be blamed on a knee injury that cost him part of the beginning of the season; he didn’t really work his way back into Ten-
nessee’s offense until later in the year. Firkser had been a solid hand until last season, and reuniting him with Arthur Smith is
certainly not going to hurt. In Tennessee, Smith often used two-tight end sets, with Firkser serving as the in-line guy and Jonnu
Smith splitting out wide more often. Expect to see the same thing with Kyle Pitts serving as the big-bodied receiver, though
Firkser is more than capable of being a receiving threat when asked. The Falcons need all the healthy hands they can get.

Pat Freiermuth Height: 6-5 Weight: 260 College: Penn State Draft: 2021/2 (55) Born: 25-Oct-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2021 PIT 16/9 683 79 60 497 7 6 76% +2.5 2 8.3 5.5 41 4.1 42 -0.4 12 2.6% 20 51 16 12.6% 25 37% 4%
2022 PIT 75 52 468 5 69% 9.0 -9.5%

After 15 targets in his first five weeks, Freiermuth never again had a week with fewer than three targets for the Steelers, out-
side of Week 16’s game that he missed due to a concussion. He became a primary red zone target, garnering six touchdowns in
his final 10 starts. Freiermuth was one of two Pittsburgh receivers with a positive receiving DVOA in the red zone—Diontae
Johnson was the other. Considering the standards of rookie tight ends, this certainly feels like a player who could be a star. He
may be more of a candidate to finish as a TE1 than you’d expect from someone on a bad offense.

Mike Gesicki Height: 6-6 Weight: 252 College: Penn State Draft: 2018/2 (42) Born: 3-Oct-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 MIA 16/5 705 89 51 570 5 11 57% -1.7 0 11.2 10.0 5 3.4 40 -1.1 0 -16.3% 39 -51 45 14.7% 15 39% 4%
2020 MIA 15/9 621 85 53 703 6 14 62% -1.2 3 13.3 10.9 4 3.2 44 -0.7 3 10.4% 18 108 6 16.8% 13 79% 2%
2021 MIA 17/9 828 112 73 780 2 5 65% -0.5 3 10.7 9.5 9 3.0 53 -1.3 3 -7.6% 33 -2 33 18.6% 8 78% 8%
2022 MIA 64 48 544 3 75% 11.3 11.4%
 TIGHT ENDS 389

Falcons sophomore Kyle Pitts motivates most of the “wide receiver with a tight end label” think-pieces, but Gesicki has the
bigger gripe this offseason. That’s because Gesicki signed his $10.9-million Dolphins franchise tag that was $7.5 million less
than a wide receiver would have earned. And Gesicki led his position with 86% of his targets coming from either the slot or out
wide. Pitts was the only other tight end north of 75%. To his credit, Gesicki told reporters he didn’t care about the controversy
and planned to help the team however he could in 2022. And that could work out exceedingly well for him. Two years ago, the
49ers handed George Kittle the biggest ever contract for a tight end. And while Gesicki is a different player with much less of a
role as a blocker, his new head coach Mike McDaniel demonstrated his creativity with that 49ers offense and is one of the best
coaching bets to pull the best production out of his new tight end.

Dallas Goedert Height: 6-5 Weight: 256 College: South Dakota State Draft: 2018/2 (49) Born: 3-Jan-1995 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 PHI 15/9 781 87 58 607 5 7 67% +2.0 3 10.5 5.7 37 5.8 10 +0.7 9 -2.1% 25 30 21 15.2% 14 43% 3%
2020 PHI 11/9 602 65 46 524 3 5 71% +2.1 1 11.4 9.3 7 4.4 26 +0.0 10 16.8% 11 105 7 16.9% 12 52% 3%
2021 PHI 15/14 781 76 56 830 4 2 74% +5.4 6 14.8 8.6 11 6.9 6 +2.0 12 34.7% 1 220 3 18.4% 9 35% 5%
2022 PHI 87 60 774 4 69% 12.9 10.3%

Goedert, noted Elf fan, joined the ranks of the NFL’s best tight ends in 2021 despite playing in Zach Ertz’s shadow for a chunk
of the season. After the Eagles traded Ertz in mid-October, Goedert caught 41 passes for 614 yards over 10 games—a 70-catch,
1,000-yard pace. He was remarkably efficient, becoming the first Eagles tight end since Charle Young in 1973 to catch at least
50 passes and average 14.0 yards per reception. As you’d expect, that’s a lot of first downs. Three-quarters of Goedert’s catches
last season resulted in a conversion, the highest rate among tight ends. Think you can stop him? You sit on a throne of lies.

Ryan Griffin Height: 6-6 Weight: 255 College: Connecticut Draft: 2013/6 (201) Born: 11-Jan-1990 Age: 32 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 NYJ 13/13 681 41 34 320 5 2 83% +4.5 2 9.4 5.5 40 5.2 13 +0.5 3 8.4% 16 45 16 10.1% 33 17% 2%
2020 NYJ 15/6 391 12 9 86 0 0 75% +0.9 1 9.6 5.3 -- 5.4 -- +0.7 0 -10.4% -- -3 -- 2.7% -- 17% 8%
2021 NYJ 14/12 583 42 27 261 2 4 64% -3.2 3 9.7 5.3 44 5.5 19 +1.0 1 -16.9% 44 -27 45 8.6% 36 19% 0%
2022 CHI 14 10 100 1 71% 10.0 -12.3%

Griffin’s usage was on and off in New York, but he hit an “on” year with Mike LaFleur last season. Same as he did in Houston
many years ago, Griffin mostly functioned as an underneath option for the Jets, working stick routes, shallows, chip-releases,
etc. He has good short-area burst and movement to transition from catch to run effectively, as evidenced by his YAC numbers,
but he has never been someone who can actually break away, whether that’s on deeper routes or with the ball in his hands.
Additionally, Griffin rarely flexes out to receiver like other modern tight ends. Only 19% of Griffin’s snaps last year were
from receiver alignments, fifth lowest among qualifying tight ends. Now with the Bears, perhaps Griffin can take some of the
underneath and on-the-ball work and allow Cole Kmet to be used more as an intermediate and downfield threat from different
alignments.

Rob Gronkowski Height: 6-6 Weight: 264 College: Arizona Draft: 2010/2 (42) Born: 14-May-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2020 TB 16/16 809 77 45 623 7 17 58% -3.0 2 13.8 11.3 3 5.5 14 +0.7 2 6.4% 21 77 13 13.2% 18 12% 2%
2021 TB 12/12 634 89 55 802 6 8 62% -1.5 5 14.6 10.1 4 6.4 10 +1.8 12 19.9% 7 166 6 17.7% 11 31% 3%

Gronkowski retires despite still being one of the top five tight ends in the game last season. Assuming that his career is done
for real this time, he ends up as third on the all-time tight end DYAR leaderboards behind Antonio Gates and Tony Gonza-
lez—impressive when you consider Gronk’s lengthy injury history. When he was fully healthy, Gronk was arguably the most
complete tight end ever, dominating our leaderboards. His 2011 season still holds the record for most DYAR for a tight end,
and it’s not particularly close. He finished in the top three in DYAR in each of the first six years he lasted double-digit games.
And that’s all without taking into account his blocking, where he was always one of the top players at the position. He likely
would have been a productive player had he returned, but there were no worlds left to conquer. In the end, the only thing that
stopped Gronk in 2022 was Gronk himself.
390 TIGHT ENDS

Hunter Henry Height: 6-5 Weight: 250 College: Arkansas Draft: 2016/2 (35) Born: 7-Dec-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 LAC 12/12 621 76 55 652 5 6 72% +4.9 3 11.9 10.2 4 2.9 45 -1.1 0 19.0% 8 136 5 17.6% 8 59% 3%
2020 LAC 14/14 913 93 60 613 4 10 65% -1.2 2 10.2 8.0 18 3.8 36 -0.7 7 -2.8% 29 27 26 17.2% 11 55% 0%
2021 NE 17/10 750 75 50 603 9 14 67% +5.2 0 12.1 9.8 8 2.9 54 -0.4 1 25.8% 2 174 5 14.5% 18 35% 1%
2022 NE 62 42 485 5 68% 11.5 9.1%

Henry saw a complete reversal of fortune after his worst season as a pro, finishing second in total DVOA among tight ends
and setting a new high in DYAR one year after posting a career low. The biggest part of Henry’s game was his impact in the red
zone, where he finished third amongst tight ends in DVOA. Henry finished tied for first in receiving touchdowns among tight
ends, and all nine came inside the 20. If he can continue to be the go-to red zone target for Mac Jones, Henry can still provide
fantasy value even as the ball gets spread around more across New England’s pass-catching options.

Tyler Higbee Height: 6-6 Weight: 257 College: Western Kentucky Draft: 2016/4 (110) Born: 1-Jan-1993 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 LAR 15/15 710 89 69 734 3 8 78% +7.0 2 10.6 6.7 29 5.6 12 +1.1 9 5.5% 17 79 11 15.4% 13 26% 4%
2020 LAR 15/15 815 60 44 521 5 3 73% +3.4 4 11.8 8.0 17 5.4 15 +1.1 7 19.6% 10 112 5 11.2% 25 45% 10%
2021 LAR 15/15 883 85 61 560 5 9 72% +1.5 2 9.2 5.4 43 4.5 36 -0.2 1 2.5% 21 58 13 15.8% 14 46% 11%
2022 LAR 71 49 496 4 69% 10.1 -3.7%

The Rams threw 16 screens to Higbee last year, and he caught 15 of them for 117 yards, leading NFL tight ends in all three
categories. He even had positive DYAR on the notoriously inefficient play, thanks mainly to a 26-yard gain on third-and-1
against Tennessee, though the computers don’t recognize that Higbee’s bobble of a screen pass turned into a pick-six against
San Francisco. Still, all those screens dragged Higbee’s efficiency down because he wasn’t actually very dangerous with the
ball in his hands, posting negative YAC+ and breaking only one tackle. He was a bigger threat downfield, finishing among the
top 10 tight ends in both DYAR and DVOA on targets 10-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Higbee sprained his MCL
in the playoff win over the 49ers and missed the Super Bowl but is expected to be ready for training camp and the Rams made
no move to replace him. With at least 15 starts in each of the last five years, he’s a reliable TE2 in most fantasy leagues.

T.J. Hockenson Height: 6-5 Weight: 248 College: Iowa Draft: 2019/1 (8) Born: 3-Jul-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 DET 12/7 539 59 32 367 2 5 54% -8.7 2 11.5 7.7 19 6.3 8 +1.8 6 -18.1% 40 -41 44 14.2% 19 62% 5%
2020 DET 16/16 768 101 67 723 6 9 66% -1.6 6 10.8 7.1 32 4.9 18 +0.3 4 -6.2% 33 7 32 17.9% 10 42% 6%
2021 DET 12/12 658 84 61 583 4 6 73% +3.2 1 9.6 7.5 21 3.3 52 -1.1 4 5.2% 18 71 11 21.2% 6 55% 9%
2022 DET 88 64 645 5 73% 10.1 1.9%

Hockenson left Iowa two years ago as a prototype Y tight end, but that has not really been his usage in Detroit, in part because
they have been desperate for receiver talent. Hockenson earned 64% of his targets from receiver alignments last year, good for
eighth among tight ends. While his usage has been different than most expected, Hockenson has taken to it well. Hockenson
earned the second-most targets on the team in 2020 and was leading the team in 2021 until he suffered a hand injury that forced
him to miss the final five games. Hockenson proved to be a staple over the middle, particularly as a safety valve in the short to
intermediate range. He also took a step forward as a red zone weapon, converting four of his 10 targets into touchdowns. Hock-
enson’s main blemish right now is that he continues to blow blocks. However, four of them were as a pass-protector and only
two as a run-blocker. Hockenson has all the strength and want-to to run block well, but the patience, technique, and vision re-
quired of pass-protection aren’t quite there yet, which may be partly why the Lions continue to flex him to receiver alignments.
 TIGHT ENDS 391

Austin Hooper Height: 6-4 Weight: 254 College: Stanford Draft: 2016/3 (81) Born: 29-Oct-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 ATL 13/10 743 97 75 787 6 8 77% +8.9 3 10.5 6.6 30 4.4 33 -0.4 13 12.5% 13 130 6 18.2% 7 47% 1%
2020 CLE 13/13 684 70 46 435 4 7 66% -1.6 4 9.5 6.5 41 3.7 37 -1.1 1 -9.4% 37 -10 38 18.2% 8 29% 4%
2021 CLE 16/16 717 61 38 345 3 6 62% -4.5 4 9.1 5.4 42 4.9 28 +0.5 2 -7.9% 34 -3 34 13.3% 23 32% 3%
2022 TEN 62 46 430 4 74% 9.3 -0.3%

From one run-heavy, play-action offense to another. Hooper is about as traditional a tight end as they come these days. He
spent almost all of his time lined up in-line in 2021 and served as the short-to-intermediate target. On play-action, Hooper had
the second-most targets in Cleveland last season with just a 6.0-yard aDOT. He still has enough athletic ability to win on cross-
ing routes and was fifth among tight ends in yards on screens (79). He also holds up well as a blocker. His 0.8% blown block
rate was tied for second-best among 22 tight ends with at least 300 blocking snaps.

Hayden Hurst Height: 6-4 Weight: 245 College: South Carolina Draft: 2018/1 (25) Born: 24-Aug-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 BAL 16/4 466 39 30 349 2 4 77% +3.6 1 11.6 8.5 14 4.9 22 +1.0 3 28.1% 4 89 10 9.2% 36 46% 5%
2020 ATL 16/9 785 88 56 571 6 5 64% -4.2 2 10.2 6.8 37 4.4 27 -0.3 5 -5.2% 30 13 29 14.5% 15 38% 4%
2021 ATL 13/5 410 31 26 221 3 2 84% +3.3 0 8.5 6.6 26 3.4 49 -1.5 3 -18.5% 45 -23 42 7.2% 45 48% 6%
2022 CIN 56 46 431 4 82% 9.4 4.4%

Hurst’s professional path has been littered with potholes. A first-round pick by the Ravens (ahead of Lamar Jackson), all
seemed smooth driving at the start. But Baltimore hedged its bets by also selecting Mark Andrews in the third round. Hurst
missed nearly all his rookie season to injury, and pop went the tires. Traded to Atlanta for a second-round choice, Hurst was de-
cent under trying conditions in 2020. Then the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts, Hurst battled injuries again, and snap went the axle.
Now on his third team in five seasons, Hurst will get a prime opportunity to crackle at last, working with Joe Burrow and the
Bengals’ elite wideout corps. The first-round talent remains; hopefully for Hurst, the roads in Cincinnati will be better paved.

Brevin Jordan Height: 6-3 Weight: 245 College: Miami Draft: 2021/5 (147) Born: 16-Jul-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2021 HOU 9/2 232 28 20 178 3 2 71% +0.5 1 8.9 5.7 37 5.0 27 -0.2 4 -0.2% 26 13 28 9.9% 31 25% 11%
2022 HOU 54 42 398 4 78% 9.5 5.3%

Jordan was inactive for the first half of the season, but the fifth-round rookie had some flashes once he was able to get on the
field. Jordan showed signs of success all over the field but gave a sneak peek at the type of red zone threat he could be scoring
three touchdowns in four targets. Jordan was also a useful third- and fourth-down receiver with a 7.8% DVOA. Third downs
and red zone performance aren’t the most stable indicators of future performance, but it’s easy to see Jordan getting eased into
his role in those spots with more expected to be put on his plate in Year 2.

Travis Kelce Height: 6-5 Weight: 260 College: Cincinnati Draft: 2013/3 (63) Born: 5-Oct-1989 Age: 33 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 KC 16/16 981 136 97 1229 5 10 71% +11.5 6 12.7 9.2 11 4.2 34 -0.0 19 14.8% 11 203 3 24.3% 3 63% 10%
2020 KC 15/15 899 145 105 1416 11 12 72% +8.9 4 13.5 8.7 9 5.6 12 +1.5 26 35.7% 3 415 1 25.5% 3 63% 7%
2021 KC 16/16 926 134 92 1125 9 5 69% +2.1 6 12.2 7.8 17 6.1 15 +1.8 28 21.2% 4 257 2 22.6% 4 67% 5%
2022 KC 126 91 1108 8 72% 12.2 16.7%

A four-year low in receptions and yards. A seven-year low in yards per catch. Football Outsiders Almanac doesn’t have to
spell out the implications for a tight end who is about to turn 33 and just lost the teammate who kept opposing safeties far away
from him. Kelce went 23-299-3 in three playoff games, so he’s not about to fall off any cliffs in 2022, but he’s beginning to
approach a steep downhill grade. We still have him projected as the top tight end in fantasy football, but there’s a little bit of
risk here.
392 TIGHT ENDS

Speaking of postseason statistics, Kelce ranks third behind Jerry Rice and Julian Edelman with 106 postseason receptions;
fifth behind Rice, Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Michael Irvin with 1,291 receiving yards; and tied with John Stallworth
for third in postseason receiving touchdowns with 12, behind Rice and Gronk. Gronk is 98 yards and three touchdowns ahead
of Kelce; if Gronk truly is retired, there’s a good chance Kelce will become the most prolific postseason tight end of all time.

George Kittle Height: 6-4 Weight: 250 College: Iowa Draft: 2017/5 (146) Born: 9-Oct-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 SF 14/14 815 107 85 1053 5 7 79% +9.0 2 12.4 5.9 35 7.1 3 +1.6 27 18.9% 9 187 4 26.1% 1 40% 6%
2020 SF 8/8 443 63 48 634 2 1 76% +3.1 8 13.2 7.3 25 6.2 5 +1.2 7 28.0% 6 142 4 22.4% 4 56% 5%
2021 SF 14/14 840 94 71 910 6 7 76% +5.4 1 12.8 8.3 13 6.3 11 +1.4 20 20.1% 6 166 7 22.6% 3 41% 2%
2022 SF 89 61 743 6 69% 12.2 9.0%

Kittle had a bit of a down year by his standards in 2021, but he remains one of the few truly complete tight ends in the league.
While he missed four games due to a calf injury, he still finished fourth in receiving yards and seventh in DYAR among tight
ends in addition to providing his typical stout blocking to help support the 49ers rushing attack. As the team transitions to Trey
Lance at quarterback, Kittle may not reach the receiving heights he has hit in the past in 2022, but his presence in the run game
will be desperately needed with San Francisco undergoing a substantial amount of transition up front. Lance only started one
game with a healthy Kittle, in Week 17 against Houston, and Kittle only saw two targets, catching one of them for 29 yards.
It is not smart to extrapolate too much from a one-game sample, but with the high likelihood of growing pains for Lance, we
could see some real duds from a fantasy perspective from Kittle in 2022. The good thing for the 49ers is that his run blocking
is strong enough that he is able to positively impact the offense even when he is not getting the ball.

Cole Kmet Height: 6-6 Weight: 262 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2020/2 (43) Born: 10-Mar-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2020 CHI 16/9 603 44 28 243 2 2 64% -3.2 0 8.7 6.5 42 4.9 20 -0.4 4 -29.0% 48 -63 47 7.5% 39 38% 2%
2021 CHI 17/17 935 93 60 612 0 6 65% -2.7 5 10.2 7.8 16 4.1 44 -0.8 6 -9.3% 37 -11 37 17.6% 12 57% 1%
2022 CHI 81 55 566 4 68% 10.3 -4.8%

Kmet’s target rate more than doubled last season, largely out of necessity given the state of Chicago’s receiving corps. Like-
wise, Kmet’s percentage of targets from receiving alignments spiked sharply. His average depth of target was slightly deeper
from the slot as the Bears tried to use him a bit down the seams from those alignments. The Bears, however, want to use Darnell
Mooney from the slot and just signed another slot-preferred player in Byron Pringle. Kmet will probably return to more in-line
work, which means he needs to show a little more as a run-blocker—he’s more of a road bump for defenders than a road grader,
and it would be nice if he could take a step forward. Kmet also needs to be more reliable as a safety valve in contested situations.
That hurt Kmet at the goal line at times, and also on third and fourth downs, where he posted a -47.4% DVOA with a 52% catch
rate. Some of that is having a rookie quarterback and a colossally bad protection scheme for said rookie quarterback, but Kmet
is still more of a grace-and-space player than a contested-catch monster.

Dawson Knox Height: 6-4 Weight: 254 College: Mississippi Draft: 2019/3 (96) Born: 14-Nov-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 BUF 15/11 655 50 28 388 2 5 56% -4.9 7 13.9 9.3 10 5.1 15 +0.3 6 -14.0% 35 -23 38 11.1% 26 22% 12%
2020 BUF 12/7 487 44 24 288 3 6 55% -6.7 3 12.0 8.8 8 6.7 3 +1.8 2 -11.6% 41 -13 41 10.3% 30 29% 2%
2021 BUF 15/14 917 71 49 587 9 10 69% +0.9 5 12.0 7.4 22 5.7 18 +0.5 8 18.4% 10 126 8 12.8% 24 53% 3%
2022 BUF 77 55 610 7 71% 11.1 11.7%

Knox’s 6-foot-4, 254-pound frame and standout combine athletic testing offered the Bills options of how to use him at the
next level. And while it took a few years for the team to figure out that perfect role, Knox enjoyed a Year 3 breakout with a
shorter average depth of target that helped him improve on his previous career catch rate by 15% and enjoy his first season with
a positive receiving plus/minus. Now Knox is one of the best red zone targets in football. In 2021, he saw 26 red zone targets
and converted nine for touchdowns, a 34.6% touchdown rate that tied him with Hunter Henry for the best among tight ends
with 12 or more red zone targets.
 TIGHT ENDS 393

Trey McBride Height: 6-4 Weight: 260 College: Colorado State Draft: 2022/2 (55) Born: 22-Nov-1999 Age: 23 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2022 ARI 19 14 136 1 74% 9.7 -7.3%

A rookie second-round pick from Colorado State, McBride won the 2021 Mackey Award as the top tight end in college foot-
ball. McBride projects as a starter as a complete tight end (i.e., not just as a receiving threat) and should grow into that role over
time with the veteran Zach Ertz still around. He did not produce at a particularly impressive level for most of his college career
before having a massive breakout season as a senior while serving as the focal point of a pretty gross Colorado State offense.
Tight ends do not normally contribute in a significant manner as rookies even when they go on to have successful careers, so we
should not expect McBride to see a ton of receiving volume early on. However, McBride could be a key piece to build around
in the future once some of Arizona’s aging pass-catchers move on.

Foster Moreau Height: 6-4 Weight: 250 College: Louisiana State Draft: 2019/4 (137) Born: 6-May-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 OAK 13/7 378 25 21 174 5 4 84% +3.7 0 8.3 4.4 47 4.6 27 +0.8 5 29.6% 3 72 14 6.2% 42 8% 4%
2020 LV 16/2 255 9 7 140 2 1 78% +1.5 0 20.0 12.1 -- 7.3 -- +3.2 1 78.5% -- 55 -- 1.7% -- 11% 11%
2021 LV 17/11 748 44 30 373 3 5 68% +0.3 2 12.4 7.7 18 6.3 12 +1.5 4 1.6% 23 26 22 7.3% 44 30% 2%
2022 LV 19 12 137 1 63% 11.4 -11.3%

Moreau caught 17 passes on 22 targets for 205 yards in the final five games of the season, when Darren Waller was unavail-
able. It was a revelatory performance in the heat of an unexpected playoff race for Moreau, a third-year tight end who disap-
peared from the Raiders’ 2020 plans when Waller’s backup was—no, this cannot be right—Jason Witten? Good heavens, the
Jon Gruden era was such a fever dream that we forgot that Gruden coaxed Witten out of the broadcast booth to be the No. 2
tight end for his never-quite-.500 Raiders! Moreau was pretty darn good as a rookie in 2019, too, as the table above indicates.
Why, Gruden, why? Why is your tenure so full of regrettable, forgettable easter eggs? It was like a meandering, poorly plotted
Star Wars series … oh wait, we did that in the team chapter. Anyway, Josh McDaniels has used plenty of robust two-tight end
packages in the past, and Moreau is a capable second tight end, so let’s look forward instead of backward.

David Njoku Height: 6-4 Weight: 246 College: Miami Draft: 2017/1 (29) Born: 10-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 CLE 4/1 101 10 5 41 1 2 50% -2.3 3 8.2 6.4 -- 3.2 -- -0.7 1 -23.7% -- -10 -- 7.5% -- 40% 20%
2020 CLE 13/5 410 29 19 213 2 6 66% -1.2 2 11.2 7.4 22 4.6 23 +0.2 1 3.0% 23 21 27 7.5% 38 38% 0%
2021 CLE 16/11 670 53 36 475 4 7 68% -0.4 3 13.2 8.2 15 6.9 7 +1.7 2 12.8% 11 71 12 11.0% 30 47% 6%
2022 CLE 64 39 464 3 61% 11.9 -5.0%

It was a very weird offseason for the Browns in some very high-profile ways, so one thing you might not have thought of
is the huge extension they handed out to Njoku. Njoku received a four-year, $54.8-million contract from Cleveland with $28
million in guarantees. He has never seen a 60-catch season in five years. He maxed out at 80% of the snaps in 2018. He wasn’t
even the tight end with the highest snap count on the 2021 Browns: that was Austin Hooper. For an offense that is as analyti-
cally inclined as this one, it’s a decision that we can’t find a lot of outward support for. Franchise-tagging Njoku was one thing;
one-year contracts in the NFL are a great way to maintain control. But the Browns now need Njoku to produce like a relevant
No. 2 target. And while he’s still very young, he has never shown in any season of his career that he could do that. Color us
puzzled and intrigued.

Albert Okwuegbunam Height: 6-5 Weight: 255 College: Missouri Draft: 2020/4 (118) Born: 25-Apr-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2020 DEN 4/0 86 15 11 121 1 6 73% +0.3 2 11.0 8.2 -- 6.6 -- +2.2 2 17.9% -- 29 -- 12.4% -- 12% 18%
2021 DEN 14/6 421 40 33 330 2 0 83% +3.0 3 10.0 5.7 38 7.4 3 +2.0 4 -1.0% 28 16 26 9.2% 33 13% 3%
2022 DEN 73 52 550 4 71% 10.6 1.8%
394 TIGHT ENDS

Okwuegbunam caught 11 passes for 120 yards and one touchdown in a three-game December stretch against the Chiefs, Li-
ons, and Bengals, then caught just two more passes in the final three games of the Great Drew Lock Surrender of 2021. He has
the talent to replace Noah Fant in an offense which should feature tight ends prominently, with rookie Greg Dulcich on hand to
provide even more juice when Nathaniel Hackett deploys 12 personnel. Oh, and it’s pronounced oh-KWEG-boo-nam, lest you
find yourself recreating the old “T. J. Hooshmanzooooo” commercial at your fantasy draft. Championship!

Kyle Pitts Height: 6-6 Weight: 240 College: Florida Draft: 2021/1 (4) Born: 6-Oct-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2021 ATL 17/15 774 110 68 1026 1 7 62% -2.2 3 15.1 10.8 1 4.6 34 +0.0 7 8.8% 14 120 9 20.2% 7 61% 22%
2022 ATL 109 71 929 4 65% 13.1 6.4%

Pitts ended up falling short of records for rookie tight ends—both Mike Ditka’s traditional records and Rob Gronkowski’s
243 DYAR. But considering the state of the offense he was working in, and the usual slow acclimation process for rookies
at the position, Pitts was amazing. His athleticism means he has to be treated like a wide receiver by opposing defenses, as
linebackers and safeties were substantially less than successful covering him. All these tight end accolades hide the fact that
Pitts is only barely a tight end. Pitts was lined up out wide 22% of the time, tops among tight ends. 82% of his targets came out
wide or in the slot, second to only Mike Gesicki. Pitts ran a standard wide receiver’s route tree and actually led all receivers on
slant DYAR despite never receiving a single target on a slant when lined up tight. Adding Anthony Firkser likely means Pitts
spends even more time out wide in 2022. Of course, it doesn’t matter if Atlanta calls him a tight end or a wide receiver or their
seventh-string long snapper; he’s already Atlanta’s best playmaker in his second year.

Kyle Rudolph Height: 6-6 Weight: 265 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2011/2 (43) Born: 9-Nov-1989 Age: 33 Risk: N/A
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 MIN 16/16 807 48 39 367 6 8 81% +7.3 0 9.4 7.0 24 4.9 23 +0.1 1 26.9% 5 118 8 11.1% 27 6% 0%
2020 MIN 12/12 572 37 28 334 1 3 76% +1.3 0 11.9 7.1 33 5.9 9 +1.1 3 6.7% 20 33 24 10.0% 32 8% 0%
2021 NYG 16/13 500 39 26 257 1 5 67% -0.8 0 9.9 6.2 30 5.3 22 +0.2 3 -14.4% 40 -20 41 7.4% 43 45% 3%

In 2020, the Giants averaged 4.3 points per red zone opportunity, which ranked 31st. In the offseason, they signed Rudolph
thinking that he would help solve their scoring issues. You’re this deep into the Almanac, so by now you know what happened
next: The Giants got worse. In 2021, they averaged a league-low 4.2 points per red zone opportunity. Rudolph was barely a
factor inside the 20, catching three of eight targets for one touchdown. The ink was barely dry on new general manager Joe
Schoen’s contract when he decided to cut Rudolph and the $5 million left on his deal. Still a free agent in early July.

Dalton Schultz Height: 6-5 Weight: 242 College: Stanford Draft: 2018/4 (137) Born: 11-Jul-1996 Age: 26 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 DAL 16/0 118 2 1 6 0 0 50% -0.3 0 6.0 10.0 -- 1.0 -- -3.1 0 -52.3% -- -6 -- 0.3% -- 0% 0%
2020 DAL 16/14 971 89 63 615 4 4 71% -0.0 3 9.8 6.6 40 4.4 25 +0.4 11 -8.5% 36 -8 36 14.2% 17 56% 3%
2021 DAL 17/15 994 104 78 808 8 5 75% +5.8 2 10.4 7.1 23 4.4 39 +0.0 13 20.3% 5 190 4 16.0% 13 49% 0%
2022 DAL 98 72 757 7 73% 10.5 8.2%

Assumed to be the backup to Blake Jarwin coming into the season, Schultz instead immediately tipped off as the No. 1 tight
end in the offense, had a career-high 104 targets, and did well enough to get franchise-tagged. He was allowed 3.5 yards of
cushion per throw per NFL Next Gen Stats, by far the most of any notable Dallas receiver, as he was the default underneath
option. He’s got a surprising amount of wiggle after the catch for a man whose name sounds like a rejected Downton Abbey
butler, and that combination of traits made him Dallas’ most efficient red zone receiving weapon with a 25.1% DVOA. It’s hard
to see the advantages that he was afforded by playing next to CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper and not project that he’ll level
off to some extent this year, but Dak Prescott excels at finding Schultz in zone coverage and the Cooper target void should keep
him squarely in the fantasy TE1 range.
 TIGHT ENDS 395

Ricky Seals-Jones Height: 6-5 Weight: 243 College: Texas A&M Draft: 2017/FA Born: 15-Mar-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 CLE 14/3 248 22 14 229 4 4 64% +0.6 0 16.4 11.5 -- 6.8 -- +2.9 0 10.2% -- 28 -- 4.7% -- 55% 9%
2020 KC 2/0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0% -0.7 1 0.0 7.0 -- 0.0 -- +0.0 0 -102.0% -- -7 -- 1.3% -- 0% 0%
2021 WAS 13/6 507 49 30 271 2 7 61% -5.6 2 9.0 5.5 40 5.1 25 -0.4 5 -25.7% 53 -60 52 11.8% 27 47% 4%
2022 NYG 33 22 207 1 67% 9.4 -15.1%

We’re not looking at a Dawson Knox type of breakout here. In fact, Seals-Jones, who had underwhelmed during his stints
in Arizona, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Washington, might not even make the team in New York. When he signed in March,
the Giants’ tight end room was virtually empty. Since then they have added Jordan Akins, formerly of the Texans, and used a
fourth-round pick on Daniel Bellinger (San Diego State). Bellinger, not Seals-Jones or Akins, was getting the bulk of first-team
reps during offseason workouts, according to media reports.

Irv Smith Height: 6-2 Weight: 240 College: Alabama Draft: 2019/2 (50) Born: 9-Aug-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 MIN 16/7 620 47 36 311 2 4 77% +3.5 2 8.6 5.6 39 3.8 38 -1.5 2 -18.5% 41 -39 42 10.6% 28 40% 4%
2020 MIN 13/7 545 43 30 365 5 7 70% +1.6 1 12.2 8.0 14 4.2 29 +0.4 2 23.5% 8 92 9 10.7% 29 21% 9%
2022 MIN 73 52 548 4 71% 10.5 3.1%

Smith is returning after missing last year with a torn meniscus. Though billed as an athletic receiving tight end coming out of
Alabama, you wouldn’t know it based on his usage in 2020. Smith earned just 30% of his targets from receiver alignments in
2020, placing him below average among qualifying tight ends. It’s easy to make the case that that was a coaching issue. Smith
isn’t a great blocker who benefits from being in-line, but that’s the way Minnesota ran their offense. Under Kevin O’Connell,
however, that could change. Tyler Higbee of the Rams earned 55% and 57% of his targets from the slot in 2020 and 2021,
respectively, under O’Connell. Even other Rams tight ends such as Kendall Blanton got a decent amount of work from wide
receiver alignments when they played. Perhaps O’Connell wants to bring all of that to Minneapolis. Smith played more from
the slot in 2019 under Kevin Stefanski, too, earning 19 targets and outpacing his DVOA rating from tight end alignments by
about 25 percentage points. Lastly, Smith seemed to benefit from his average depth of target increasing to 8.0 yards in 2020,
making use of his speed and silky-smooth movement in space. Perhaps that number can no longer go up with some of the other
vertical threats in the offense taking that job, but the Vikings should avoid making Smith any more of an underneath option.

Jonnu Smith Height: 6-3 Weight: 248 College: Florida International Draft: 2017/3 (100) Born: 22-Aug-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 TEN 16/14 718 44 35 439 3 2 80% +2.7 1 12.5 5.5 41 7.8 2 +2.4 17 25.6% 6 91 9 10.4% 31 36% 7%
2020 TEN 15/14 745 65 41 448 8 9 63% -5.3 2 10.9 5.8 46 5.8 10 +1.4 4 7.2% 19 65 15 14.8% 14 41% 3%
2021 NE 16/11 526 45 28 294 1 2 62% -5.5 4 10.5 5.5 39 8.3 1 +2.1 4 -28.6% 54 -63 53 8.9% 35 20% 13%
2022 NE 23 15 163 2 65% 10.9 -5.9%

The yin to Hunter Henry’s yang, Smith was made the co-third highest-paid tight end but did not live up to the contract in his
first year. He posted by far the worst DYAR of his career and finished 54th out of 55 tight ends in DVOA. It wasn’t for a lack
of trying, either. Smith got at least five targets per game in each of the first four weeks. He would only hit that mark one more
time the rest of the season.
Even after he fell out of the passing rotation, New England still made a point to incorporate Smith. His nine rushing attempts
(for 40 yards) are the most we have ever recorded by a tight end. In the final five weeks of the season, Smith had more rushing
attempts than receptions. The insistence on keeping Smith involved should offer some hope in a turnaround in 2022, but there
are certainly questions about whether the volume will be there to redeem him.
396 TIGHT ENDS

Durham Smythe Height: 6-6 Weight: 260 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2018/4 (123) Born: 9-Aug-1995 Age: 27 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 MIA 16/14 485 14 7 65 0 1 50% -2.6 1 9.3 9.9 -- 1.4 -- -3.1 0 -31.0% -- -20 -- 2.3% -- 36% 14%
2020 MIA 15/13 449 29 26 208 2 2 90% +4.0 0 8.0 3.9 50 4.7 21 +0.1 0 10.7% 17 37 21 5.5% 45 21% 7%
2021 MIA 17/12 716 41 34 357 0 2 83% +4.8 1 10.5 6.3 28 4.7 30 -0.1 0 9.9% 13 47 17 6.7% 46 27% 0%
2022 MIA 17 14 146 1 82% 10.4 7.4%

Smythe set modest new career highs of 34 catches and 357 yards in 2021, then survived the Dolphins’ transition to a new head
coach in Mike McDaniel and earned a new two-year contract because of his blocking proficiency. Across four seasons, Smythe has
blown just 2.4% of his pass blocks and 2.1% of his run blocks. And thanks to his team’s porous offensive line and league-leading
71% reliance on two-tight end formations, Smythe blocked on 123 pass plays in 2021, the most at his position. Just don’t expect
that trend to continue in 2022. McDaniel’s 49ers had the third-lowest percentage of two-tight end formations at just 16%.

Geoff Swaim Height: 6-4 Weight: 260 College: Texas Draft: 2015/7 (246) Born: 16-Sep-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 JAX 6/2 201 17 13 65 0 1 76% +0.4 0 5.0 3.5 -- 3.2 -- -3.2 0 -52.7% -- -42 -- 7.9% -- 41% 0%
2020 TEN 10/8 353 11 9 83 1 1 82% +1.0 1 9.2 5.5 -- 3.9 -- -0.2 0 13.6% -- 18 -- 3.7% -- 27% 0%
2021 TEN 16/16 719 40 31 210 3 5 78% +1.6 2 6.8 3.7 52 4.5 37 -0.4 1 -15.8% 43 -24 43 8.2% 39 24% 0%
2022 TEN 23 17 149 1 74% 8.8 -7.9%

Tennessee’s 2021 blocking issues didn’t just come along the offensive line. Swaim had more blocking snaps than any tight
end in the NFL, but also ranked second in blown blocks behind Tyler Conklin. Most of that damage came in the run game,
where Swaim blew 11 blocks on 383 snaps (2.9% blown block rate) with two holds. In 2020, Swaim did not blow a run block
in 178 snaps. The bump in blocking snaps was nearly out of necessity given the state of the offensive line and it would be sur-
prising to see Swaim struggle so much again.

Logan Thomas Height: 6-6 Weight: 250 College: Virginia Tech Draft: 2014/4 (120) Born: 1-Jul-1991 Age: 31 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 DET 16/3 342 28 16 173 1 3 57% -2.5 1 10.8 7.6 20 4.8 24 +0.4 0 -18.9% 42 -21 37 5.0% 46 50% 11%
2020 WAS 16/15 1009 110 72 670 6 8 65% -2.8 4 9.3 7.1 30 4.0 31 -0.6 7 -7.8% 35 -4 35 19.2% 6 68% 2%
2021 WAS 6/6 294 25 18 196 3 4 72% +1.7 0 10.9 10.0 5 3.7 47 -0.0 1 18.9% 9 46 18 13.6% 21 42% 4%
2022 WAS 63 42 432 4 67% 10.3 -5.8%

Thomas spent time on IR early in the year with a hamstring injury, then suffered a torn ACL in Week 13’s loss to the Raiders.
Thomas has a strong history of health in the past, but he turned 31 in July and could start training camp on rehab status rather
than with the main group. We could truly see this going either way. Thomas was on the ascent after the last few years and he has
the size and speed to be a matchup problem. He’s also a 31-year-old tight end with exactly one year of more than 18 receptions.
KUBIAK is kind of splitting the middle ground here—and it makes sense because of the lack of history to fall back on—but if
Thomas is healthy for 17 games he has a chance to obliterate that projection.

Robert Tonyan Height: 6-5 Weight: 237 College: Indiana State Draft: 2017/FA Born: 30-Apr-1994 Age: 28 Risk: Yellow
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 GB 11/1 199 15 10 100 1 2 67% -0.1 0 10.0 10.5 -- 2.6 -- -2.0 0 4.5% -- 10 -- 3.9% -- 20% 13%
2020 GB 16/8 638 59 52 586 11 7 88% +12.6 0 11.3 8.1 13 4.3 28 +0.2 1 51.7% 1 242 2 11.8% 22 27% 12%
2021 GB 8/5 306 29 18 204 2 2 62% -1.3 1 11.3 10.3 2 5.8 17 +0.8 2 6.1% 17 30 20 11.6% 29 47% 9%
2022 GB 71 53 568 5 75% 10.7 10.7%

Tonyan is more of a big receiver than a tight end. His slot rate jumped from 27% in 2020 to 47% in 2021, perhaps because
Matt LaFleur fully accepted that Tonyan’s work as an in-line tight end is incomplete and that role is much better suited for Mar-
cedes Lewis. After all, Tonyan’s DVOA from the slot was higher in both 2020 and 2021 compared to in-line targets. Moreover,
 TIGHT ENDS 397

Tonyan blew six run blocks in just eight games last season and blew five the year before. Tonyan isn’t on the field to block,
he’s there to deliver in the red zone. He caught 15 of 17 red zone targets over the past two seasons, converting eight of those
catches into touchdowns.

Adam Trautman Height: 6-6 Weight: 253 College: Dayton Draft: 2020/3 (105) Born: 5-Feb-1997 Age: 25 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2020 NO 15/6 393 16 15 171 1 1 94% +2.8 0 11.4 4.0 -- 7.8 -- +2.8 2 39.7% -- 50 -- 3.3% -- 19% 0%
2021 NO 13/10 642 43 27 263 2 2 63% -2.2 3 9.7 5.7 36 4.1 43 -1.0 1 -21.6% 49 -41 49 11.8% 28 36% 2%
2022 NO 36 24 246 2 67% 10.3 -11.6%

There was some hope Trautman would have a breakout season from a fantasy perspective, serving as a solid safety net for
an unsettled quarterback position and a much-needed target with Michael Thomas missing the year. That didn’t really happen,
with Trautman only receiving 13 targets through the first seven weeks of the season, then struggling to a -26.0% DVOA on a
heavier workload over the next month after the Jameis Winston injury, and finally going down with a sprained MCL which cost
him most of the rest of the season. There were glimpses of the player who scored 14 touchdowns in his last season in Dayton,
but they weren’t consistent enough. The upgraded Saints receiving corps should give Trautman more room to work in 2022, but
it also knocks him significantly down the pecking order in terms of potential targets, so buyer beware.

Tommy Tremble Height: 6-3 Weight: 233 College: Notre Dame Draft: 2021/3 (83) Born: 2-Jun-2000 Age: 22 Risk: Blue
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2021 CAR 16/11 521 35 20 180 1 1 57% -1.8 3 9.0 8.2 14 3.5 48 -0.9 3 -24.0% 51 -36 48 6.4% 47 46% 3%
2022 CAR 45 30 295 2 67% 9.8 -9.9%

Winner of the “player most likely to have been named by Stan Lee” award, this Notre Dame product should see his usage shoot
up this season. The Panthers want to use more two-tight end sets under Ben McAdoo, and Tremble is more athletic than Carolina’s
other main tight end, Ian Thomas. Tremble was also considered one of the top blocking tight ends in the class of 2021, earning
comparisons to Kyle Juszczyk. Rookie tight ends rarely contribute, so the Panthers are counting on a sophomore leap.

C.J. Uzomah Height: 6-6 Weight: 260 College: Auburn Draft: 2015/5 (157) Born: 14-Jan-1993 Age: 29 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 CIN 16/16 654 40 27 242 2 3 68% -1.0 3 9.0 3.9 48 5.0 20 +0.0 2 -19.6% 43 -34 40 6.6% 41 10% 5%
2020 CIN 2/2 96 11 8 87 1 2 73% +0.2 0 10.9 8.5 -- 3.8 -- +0.3 0 21.5% -- 21 -- 15.3% -- 36% 9%
2021 CIN 16/16 803 63 49 493 5 3 78% +2.3 4 10.1 4.3 50 6.1 16 +1.1 13 11.4% 12 75 10 12.2% 26 33% 5%
2022 NYJ 43 30 298 2 71% 9.9 -4.2%

It should say a lot about Uzomah’s potential with the Jets that he spent seven years in Cincinnati, put up his most efficient
season in 2021, acted as a key weapon for a Super Bowl team, and still chose to abscond for New York in the offseason. It might
be risky to bail on a potential contender, but Uzomah’s going to fit right in catching passes from Zach Wilson. Uzomah finished
fourth among tight ends with a 70 DYAR on deep passes.
If Uzomah’s breakout year translates directly over to the Jets, it would be the best tight end the Jets have had in almost a de-
cade. The last Jets tight end to reach at least 75 DYAR was Jeff Cumberland in 2013. However, word from OTAs had Uzomah
falling behind Tyler Conklin in the pecking order.

Darren Waller Height: 6-6 Weight: 255 College: Georgia Tech Draft: 2015/6 (204) Born: 13-Sep-1992 Age: 30 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2019 OAK 16/16 940 117 90 1145 3 7 77% +9.5 5 12.7 7.4 22 6.4 6 +1.5 15 22.0% 7 234 1 23.9% 4 53% 13%
2020 LV 16/15 992 145 107 1196 9 9 74% +8.5 4 11.2 7.9 19 5.3 16 +0.8 11 11.4% 16 190 3 27.5% 1 36% 13%
2021 LV 11/11 608 93 55 665 2 8 59% -4.8 4 12.1 9.9 7 4.4 38 -0.2 3 -9.1% 36 -12 38 23.4% 2 52% 8%
2022 LV 103 68 770 4 66% 11.3 -1.1%
398 TIGHT ENDS

Waller’s catch rate plunged from the mid-70s in 2019 and 2020 to 59% last year as he became just about the only downfield
threat opponents had to worry about for much of the season. His DVOA and DYAR plummeted as a result. Waller also missed
much of the Raiders’ late-season 2021 surge with a knee injury after dealing with a back issue and a bout of COVID earlier in
the season. Davante Adams will siphon away many of Waller’s targets but should also make Waller a more efficient receiver,
and everyone’s red zone targets will benefit from a more dynamic offense. Waller is the quintessential 2020s Raider: a fine
player, but older than you think, with statistical production that may have been buoyed a bit by circumstances in the past and a
prognosis that boils down to “good, but not quite good enough.”

Jelani Woods Height: 6-7 Weight: 253 College: Virginia Draft: 2022/3 (73) Born: 9-Oct-1998 Age: 24 Risk: Green
Year Tm G/GS Snaps Pass Rec Yds TD EZ C% +/- Drop Yd/C aDOT Rk YAC Rk YAC+ BTkl DVOA Rk DYAR Rk Use Rk Slot Wide
2022 IND 31 21 246 1 68% 11.7 0.6%

Woods is an intriguing tight end prospect for the Colts. He’s a fluid mover and physical route runner of impressive size,
although he is inconsistent as a blocker. Woods began his college career at Oklahoma State, where he was originally recruited
as a quarterback. He never topped 129 yards there, but had 44 catches for 598 yards and 8 touchdowns and was voted all-ACC
after transferring to Virginia as a grad student in 2021. His combine numbers were also impressive, including a 4.61s 40-yard
dash and a 6.95s 3-cone drill.

Going Deep
Stephen Anderson, ARI: Anderson has mostly served as roster depth since arriving in the NFL as a UDFA out of California
in 2016. After spending three seasons with the Chargers, Anderson joined Arizona on a one-year deal to fill a similar role. With
heavy investment in both Zach Ertz and rookie Trey McBride at the tight end position, Anderson will not be on the field all that
often.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI: Arcega-Whiteside, drafted 57th overall in 2019, saw only five targets last season, and three of
those were in the Eagles’ meaningless regular-season finale. He was so rarely a factor in the pass offense that by putting him on
the field, Philadelphia was all but declaring it planned to run the ball. This offseason, the Eagles decided to drop the pretense of
him as a wide receiver and try him out as a tight end.

John Bates, WAS: Logan Thomas’ latest long-term injury put Bates into the No. 2 tight end role, and whenever Ricky Seals-
Jones was down, Bates became a full-time player. What we learned in his first season is that Bates can help on backside blocks
and catch some balls as a lower-rung depth option. That’s not a bad outcome at all for a fourth-round pick, and Bates will be
penciled in next to Thomas again in 2022.

Blake Bell, KC: Hey, it’s fourth-and-goal for the Chiefs! Time for Patrick Mahomes to … oh no, they’re running some Wild-
cat bullsh*t with Blake Bell again. Yes, we used to love the Chiefs’ creativity on occasions like these, but shouldn’t they have
outgrown these community theater production trick plays by now? That’s nothing against Bell, but why is Andy Reid taking
the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes, or Tyreek Hill, or his former first-round running back, and giving it to the backup
tight end? And why are they burning practice reps on this junk? Did you see the AFC Championship Game? The Chiefs of-
fense needs discipline in fourth-and-short situations, not performance art installations. Yes, we know Bell was a dual-threat
quarterback at Oklahoma. That was almost a decade ago. He has been a journeyman backup tight end since 2015. Eventually
the statute of limitations runs out on the “versatile athlete” title.

Daniel Bellinger, NYG: The Giants brought in veterans Ricky Seals-Jones and Jordan Akins but haven’t made a major com-
mitment to either (both are on one-year deals), so there’s a path to significant playing time for Bellinger. Given his experience
in San Diego State’s run-heavy offense, the fourth-round pick could carve out a role as a blocker on early downs or in 12-per-
sonnel packages. That’s great, but anyone who has watched Evan Engram will want to know about Bellinger’s hands. Good
news: He dropped only three passes during his four seasons with the Aztecs, according to Sports Info Solutions, including zero
last season.
 TIGHT ENDS 399

Kendall Blanton, LAR: Blanton caught only four passes in the regular season, but he had five catches in the NFC Champion-
ship Game in place of an injured Tyler Higbee. Blanton then caught zero passes in the Super Bowl as L.A. turned to Brycen
Hopkins (one catch in the regular season, four against Cincinnati) instead. With Johnny Mundt leaving for Minnesota and no
incoming competition, Blanton and Hopkins will battle to see who backs up Higbee this fall.

Nick Boyle, BAL: Between injuries and PED suspensions, Boyle has missed 35 games in his seven-year career and has started
just a dozen over the last two seasons. He remains valuable as the lone blocking tight end on the Baltimore roster, but the
punitive wear and tear on his frame is diminishing that lone area of worthiness. It shouldn’t be hard to best 2021’s receiving
production—one catch for 2 whole yards.

Grant Calcaterra, PHI: Calcaterra could fill an under-the-radar need for the Eagles: a reliable pass-catching backup to Dallas
Goedert. He has the hands, but there’s a reason he fell to the middle of the sixth round in April’s draft. While at Oklahoma, he
suffered what he described as a “fair share” of concussions. He now says the concussions were minor, but they were serious
enough for him to miss the 2020 season and contemplate a career as a firefighter. After that year away, he transferred to SMU,
where he caught 38 passes for 465 yards and four touchdowns.

Eric Ebron, FA: Ebron dealt with hamstring and knee injuries last season as he played in just eight games and fell behind not
just Pat Freiermuth but also Zach Gentry on the Pittsburgh depth chart. Ebron was medically cleared in February but had almost
no reported free-agent interest before our deadline. He could absolutely pop up as a TE2 somewhere this year in a Marcedes
Lewis-esque role, but his days of being on the fantasy radar are probably over.

Jake Ferguson, DAL: Barry Alvarez’s grandson, Ferguson was destined to be a Badger and played almost immediately as a
redshirt freshman. His numbers never really grew as the Wisconsin passing attack struggled, but Ferguson was a steady, slower
move tight end who wound up with 145 career catches. He’s somewhat elusive despite his 4.81s 40-yard dash time at the com-
bine and has a chance to develop into a decent lower-rung tight end at the NFL level. The Cowboys used a fourth-round pick
on Ferguson and will be counting on him to replace Blake Jarwin in the receiving game, although Jeremy Sprinkle is much
more of a blocker.

John FitzPatrick, ATL: A sixth-round pick out of Georgia, FitzPatrick is not Kyle Pitts’ backup. Instead, the Atlanta native
will serve as understudy to Anthony Firkser as the more standard in-line tight end. In Athens, FitzPatrick received plenty of
praise for his run blocking and his toughness while catching only 17 receptions for 200 yards. He has every chance to stick
around in Arthur Smith’s offense, but any fantasy relevance would be one of the signs of the apocalypse.

Zach Gentry, PIT: Gentry enters the final year of his rookie contract as a decent pass-protecting TE2 without an exceptional
receiving trait. He pencils in behind Pat Freiermuth and acted as the No. 1 tight end late in the year when Freiermuth dealt with
a concussion. Gentry had four separate games of between 31 and 39 receiving yards, finishing the year with -9.7% receiving
DVOA.

Jimmy Graham, FA: At 34 years old, Graham’s value as a red zone target no longer outweighs his overall limitations as a
blocker and receiver. Graham’s red zone targets fell from 21 in 2020 to just eight last year. He only played 28% of snaps, rel-
egated to TE2 duties behind Cole Kmet; it was Graham’s first season with a sub-50% snap share. Graham isn’t much more than
a red zone fade merchant at this stage, which may be of value to certain teams but useless to most.

Kylen Granson, IND: Granson was selected in the fourth round by the Colts in 2021 out of SMU. He caught 11 passes for
106 yards last season, often used as the third tight end in heavy personnel. Despite not being the biggest tight end (6-foot-2,
242 pounds), he has the ability to make plays in space while others occupy the eyes of defenders. With Jack Doyle retiring, he
could be in line for more playing time.

Noah Gray, KC: Gray earned a start when Travis Kelce was sidelined with COVID in Week 16, catching two passes for 12
yards against the Steelers. Gray then added two catches for 14 yards in the playoffs. He’s a reliable special teamer who earned
five targets inside the 10-yard line last year, scoring one touchdown. If he gets any serious playing time, something terrible has
happened to Travis Kelce, and the Chiefs are in deep doo-doo.

Connor Heyward, PIT: A TE/FB hybrid player who just happens to be Cameron Heyward’s little brother, this sixth-round
rookie will push Derek Watt for the title of Official Nepotism Roster Fullback. Heyward had more carries than catches at
Michigan State, but wasn’t completely a blocker, so he has a chance to be more involved than Watt has been in the offense. At
5-foot-11, 233 pounds, he would be one of the smallest and lightest tight ends in the NFL.
400 TIGHT ENDS

Brycen Hopkins, LAR: The son of former Titans/Oilers tackle Brad Hopkins caught just one regular-season pass in his first
two years in the NFL … then suddenly became a big part of the Rams’ passing game in the Super Bowl with four catches for 47
yards and three first downs. There’s definitely speed here, as Hopkins was tied for second among tight ends at the 2020 combine
with a 4.66s 40. He’ll battle with Kendall Blanton to back up Tyler Higbee.

O.J. Howard, BUF: Howard hit on the promise of his exceptional athletic tools and top-20 draft selection with a 38.7% receiv-
ing DVOA in his first two seasons in 2017 and 2018. But since then, Howard has suffered myriad foot, ankle, and leg injuries
that have eroded that efficiency and rendered him a secondary option behind Rob Gronkowski in 2020 and 2021 and now
Dawson Knox in 2022 with the Bills.

Tyree Jackson, PHI: Jackson, a quarterback at the University of Buffalo and for the XFL’s DC Defenders, turned heads last
training camp as he transitioned to tight end. He was so impressive that he made the Eagles’ roster even after he broke a bone
in his back. Though he made his NFL debut in Week 9, it wasn’t until the regular-season finale that he recorded his first recep-
tion—and scored his first touchdown—on a shovel pass from Gardner Minshew. The celebration didn’t last long. Jackson tore
his ACL later in the game. He could begin the season on the PUP list.

Blake Jarwin, FA: We knew that Jarwin was dealing with a hip injury in-season, but what we didn’t know is that it was a po-
tentially career-threatening condition that is “considered very uncommon” for an active NFL player. Dallas cut him in March
with an injury settlement. Still unsigned as we go to press, Jarwin has the skills to be a low-end No. 1 tight end or solid backup,
but he’s going to be fighting uphill to convince a team he’s worth the injury risk. He’s not expected to be ready for Week 1.

Juwan Johnson, NO: Johnson’s 22.2% receiving DVOA would have ranked fourth among tight ends, but he finished three
targets short of the minimum to require for the leaderboards. Johnson had much more chemistry with Jameis Winston than he
had with any of the other Saints passers, so Winston’s return to the lineup might mean good things for him. Then again, maybe
Taysom Hill will become the TE2 next to Adam Trautman, sending Johnson back to the receivers room if he wants to see the
field again.

Ko Kieft, TB: Kieft had just 12 receptions in his four years in Minnesota, explaining why he didn’t get an invite to the scouting
combine. The Bucs traded up to the sixth round to draft him anyway because of his top-tier potential as an in-line blocker. The
Bucs like using 12 personnel and don’t have a ton of depth at the tight end position, so you could see a lot of Kieft, even if he
won’t see the ball.

Charlie Kolar, BAL: One of two tight ends chosen by Baltimore in this year’s fourth round, Kolar was frequently compared to
his new teammate Mark Andrews in the run-up to the draft. Kolar even grew up in Norman while Andrews was at Oklahoma,
but he went to Iowa State when the locals didn’t recruit him. Kolar has excellent size and speed, and like Andrews is allergic
to blocking. The only question is whether Kolar will get much early field time, and whether he will be ready when the Ravens
refuse to sign Andrews to a third contract.

Tyler Kroft, SF: Kroft’s lone year with the New York Jets may have been his best since his 2017 in Cincinnati. He could have
achieved even more had a lung laceration not landed him on IR for five weeks. Still, Kroft managed to eclipse 20 targets for
just the second time in his career, finishing 25-173-1 with 4.0% DVOA. Kroft also allowed just one blown block on 108 rushing
snaps, a big bounce-back from his blocking struggles the season prior.

Lucas Krull, NO: A rookie UDFA out of Pittsburgh, Krull only switched from baseball to football in 2018 and still has work
to do as both a blocker and receiver. However, he impressed at OTAs, with a natural smooth athleticism and surprisingly solid
hands. Considering the Saints have no serious depth behind Adam Trautman, Krull could not only make the roster but find an
offensive role this season.

Marcedes Lewis, GB: At the ripe age of 37 years old, Lewis’ 28 targets last season (-15.6% DVOA) were the most he has
earned in his four years with the Packers. All 28 of those targets were on first or second down, which makes sense seeing as he
is more of a blocker than a receiver. In fact, Lewis only has three third-down targets in his entire Packers career: two in 2020
and one in 2018. Green Bay could save $2.5 million in cap space by cutting Lewis, but he would likely find work right away
should he choose to play at age 38.
 TIGHT ENDS 401

Isaiah Likely, BAL: The second fourth-round tight end the Ravens picked this year, just to show they are planning to never
throw the ball to any wideouts ever again. Likely, a big-play machine at Coastal Carolina, completes the Spider-Man pointing
meme when paired with Baltimore’s other fourth-round tight end draftee Charlie Kolar and veteran Mark Andrews. When the
Ravens line up with 11 tight ends at some point in the near future, Likely will likely be a key piece.

Tre’ McKitty, LAC: The Chargers’ third-round pick out of Georgia in 2020, McKitty saw substantial action as the second tight
end after Donald Parham was injured. McKitty will compete with Parham for a role again this season. He was a block-first tight
end in college and will likely remain a block-first tight end for the Chargers.

James Mitchell, DET: Mitchell’s final season in college was cut to just two games due to a knee injury, revoking his last
chance at a breakout season. Mitchell caught over 20 passes in each of his two healthy seasons at Virginia Tech, however,
mostly finding work as a field-stretcher across the middle. He brings good speed, agility, and in-air ball location, though he will
certainly need to work on his blocking before he earns serious reps. Selected by Detroit in the fifth round.

Nick Muse, MIN: This Vikings seventh-round pick is more of an idea than a player right now. A William & Mary transfer who
finished things off at South Carolina, Muse is a solid blocker who brings energy and strength, both at the point of attack and the
second level. As a pass-catcher, however, Muse isn’t anything more than a short-area catch-and-run type, though he does have
the athleticism to be more. Muse will need to develop better hands as well.

Andrew Ogletree, IND: At 6-foot-7 and 250 pounds, Ogletree is a massive tight end prospect chosen by the Colts in the sixth
round of this year’s draft. In his final season at Youngstown State, he caught 39 passes for 386 yards. He doesn’t have the ath-
letic upside that you would normally see at that height, but Ogletree has the frame and catch radius to play in multiple big-tight
end sets.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN: Okonkwo missed the 2020 season with myocarditis but returned strong in 2021. The fourth-
round rookie from Maryland has drawn some Jonnu Smith comps because of his size (6-foot-3, 238 pounds) and speed (4.53s
40 led tight ends at the combine). His 4.6-yard average depth of target was last among 29 tight ends with at least 50 targets in
2021, but that was partly due to playing in an RPO offense, and he was good after the catch. He’s a willing blocker and with
some improvement there he could find time as a Smith-like H-back.

James O’Shaughnessy, CHI: O’Shaughnessy has been Jacksonville’s primary tight end for the better part of the last four
years, though not really for his receiving chops. Over the past three seasons, he recorded just 11 third-down targets. He caught
seven of those passes, but it’s clear the Jaguars didn’t want him on the field for third down and didn’t want to target him when he
was on the field. That said, O’Shaughnessy blocks quite well, and even escaped last season without registering a single blown
block in seven games. Signed with Chicago in April.

Cade Otton, TB: Otton’s scouting reports read like there’s a competition to see who can give the most backhanded compli-
ment—“lumbering mover,” “should be a more productive pro than college player,” “background to become adequate blocker.”
The University of Washington product doesn’t do anything special athletically and isn’t a downfield threat, but he’s an eager
and effective run-blocker with good enough hands to be a short-yardage safety valve-type. Selected by Tampa Bay in the fourth
round.

Donald Parham, LAC: Parham suffered a terrifying concussion in the Week 15 Chiefs game: he slammed head-first into the
turf in the end zone and appeared to be paralyzed for several moments (as the television cameras ill-advisedly zoomed in on
him). Parham was out of the hospital later that week but out of the Chargers lineup for the rest of the year. The Chargers re-
signed Parham in the offseason, presumably to back up newcomer Gerald Everett. At 6-foot-8, Parham is an appealing red zone
target and potential matchup nightmare, but players of his profile rarely develop into what fantasy gamers hope they can be.

MyCole Pruitt, FA: Pruitt set career highs with 18 targets, 14 receptions, 145 yards, and three touchdowns for the 2021 Titans.
He was third in DYAR and second in DVOA among tight ends with 10-24 targets, but so far this offseason that hasn’t been
enough to get the 30-year-old blocking tight end on a roster. The blocking is part of the issue with a 2.6% blown block rate, 71st
among 84 tight ends with at least 100 blocking snaps.

Teagan Quitoriano, HOU: A fifth-round pick from Oregon State, Quitoriano has a foundation of skills to build on in order
to become a successful NFL tight end but will really have to refine them in order to make up for poor athletic testing during
his pro day. He won with physicality both blocking and at the top of routes in college, and ramping that up could be the key to
finding the field.
402 TIGHT ENDS

Jeremy Ruckert, NYJ: Chosen by the Jets near the end of the third round, Ruckert worked primarily as a blocking tight end
for Ohio State. He finished his collegiate career with just 54 receptions (26 in his senior year), and he did not test heading
into the draft after suffering a foot injury during the Senior Bowl. Ruckert’s ability as a primary blocker may earn him more
significant playing time. Last year, Jets tight ends combined for eight blown blocks in the run game, six of which came from
starting tight end Ryan Griffin. Their 2022 replacements, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin, had three and 10 blown blocks last
year, respectively.

Drew Sample, CIN: Drew is not to be confused with Bengals defensive lineman Cam Sample, who might just be a bigger
receiving threat. After a half-decent 40-catch season in 2020 (when starter C.J. Uzomah was injured), Sample grabbed just 11
passes last year for 81 yards and -10.8% DVOA. If Sample is getting more targets in 2022, that will mean Cincy’s plan to con-
centrate on passing to much better options has thrown a gasket. In fairness, Sample was drafted (in the second round!) mainly
to be a blocker and has proven to be effective enough in that role, if hardly Gronk-esque.

Adam Shaheen, MIA: Shaheen has yet to best the 12 catches he snagged in his first, fourth, and now fifth professional seasons.
But he survived the Dolphins’ transition from Brian Flores to Mike McDaniel because of his excellent run-blocking. Shaheen
has blown just 0.9% of his run blocks the last two seasons, a rate that if concentrated exclusively in 2021 would have tied him
for seventh among the 30 tight ends with 200 or more run blocks per Sports Info Solutions charting.

Jeremy Sprinkle, DAL: The best trait Sprinkle has going for him is pass protection, and he did a solid job when asked to do
that down the stretch for Dallas. He has been a core special-teamer for every team he has been on, but Sprinkle and fourth-year
tight end Sean McKeon are probably behind fourth-round pick Jake Ferguson for a roster spot. Sprinkle, 28 in training camp,
is a quality depth tight end who should catch on somewhere if he’s beaten out. It’s notable that he was an early Cowboys re-
sign—they got him on March 15, near the start of free agency opening.

Ian Thomas, CAR: Thomas received a three-year, $16.5-million contract this offseason, with new offensive coordinator Ben
McAdoo highlighting him as someone the Panthers needed to force opponents into sticking with base defense. McAdoo is
going to use a lot of two-tight end sets, so Thomas should get significant playing time, but he has had a receiving DVOA of
-21.9% or worse in each of the last three seasons and is an average blocker. The Panthers are paying for potential production
that has yet to actually appear.

Cole Turner, WAS: The fourth-round tight end out of Nevada has a chance to have a fantasy impact in the future. He combines
6-foot-6 height with soft hands and some suddenness, and he has shown he can make contested catches. If Logan Thomas is
healthy, Turner will likely learn from him this year and have a shot at the real job in 2023. If Thomas isn’t, Turner could battle
John Bates for targets. He’s an interesting dynasty fantasy stash, though not one with a ton of upside.

Maxx Williams, ARI: Williams has had to deal with a litany of injuries throughout his career, and 2021 was no different, as a
torn ACL in Week 5 against San Francisco ended his season. Williams had been seeing some decent receiving volume prior to
his injury, but since then the team traded for Zach Ertz and drafted Trey McBride with a second-round pick, adding some seri-
ous competition to the tight end room. At press time, there is no firm timetable on Williams’ return, and that combined with his
new teammates will make major contributions from him unlikely in 2022.

Brock Wright, DET: Wright is a useful No. 2 tight end for a run-centric offense. He blocked well in the run game as an un-
drafted rookie last season, blowing just two blocks while otherwise complementing a stout Lions offensive line. Wright’s fit in
a run-centric offense is also rooted in his long speed, as evidenced by his 4.66s 40-yard dash at his pro day, a great figure for a
257-pounder. In turn, Wright excelled in limited action as a play-action field-stretcher, like on the 23-yard touchdown he caught
down the seam versus Minnesota.
 2022 Kicker Projections
L isted below are the 2022 KUBIAK projections for kick-
ers. Kicker effectiveness is inconsistent from one year to
the next, so the major differentiator between kickers in our
two different scoring systems. For Pts1, all field goals are
worth three points. For Pts2, all field goals up to 39 yards are
worth three points, field goals of 40 to 49 yards are worth four
fantasy projections is the forecast of field goal and extra point points, and field goals over 50 yards are worth five points.
opportunities that vary based on their offenses, schedules, and Kickers are also listed with a Risk of Green, Yellow, or Red,
other contextual factors. That said, the projections do aim to as explained in the introduction to the section on quarterbacks.
estimate kicker ranges, which in turn influence the volume of Note that field goal totals below are rounded, but “fantasy
their projected deep field goal attempts. points” are based on the actual projections, so the total may
Kickers are listed with their total fantasy points based on not exactly equal (FG * 3 + XP).

Fantasy Kicker Projections, 2022

Kicker Team FG Pct XP Pts1 Pts2 Risk Kicker Team FG Pct XP Pts1 Pts2 Risk
Matt Gay LAR 29-33 87.9% 46 134 149 Green Rodrigo Blankenship IND 27-33 81.8% 38 119 133 Red
Evan McPherson CIN 30-34 88.2% 41 131 150 Green Joey Slye WAS 28-33 84.8% 34 118 133 Red
Daniel Carlson LV 32-35 91.4% 36 131 149 Green Zane Gonzalez CAR 29-33 87.9% 32 118 134 Green
Harrison Butker KC 28-32 87.5% 46 130 147 Green Riley Patterson DET 28-32 87.5% 35 118 132 Red
Justin Tucker BAL 30-34 88.2% 40 129 147 Green Cairo Santos CHI 28-33 84.8% 34 118 131 Green
Tyler Bass BUF 27-32 84.4% 48 129 143 Green Robbie Gould SF 27-31 87.1% 34 116 131 Green
Greg Joseph MIN 28-33 84.8% 43 129 145 Green Graham Gano NYG 29-33 87.9% 27 115 132 Green
Brandon McManus DEN 29-33 87.9% 42 128 144 Green Jason Myers SEA 27-33 81.8% 33 115 130 Yellow
Ryan Succop TB 27-32 84.4% 47 128 140 Red Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU 27-32 84.4% 34 114 129 Green
Matt Prater ARI 27-34 79.4% 45 127 143 Green Cade York CLE 26-33 78.8% 34 113 127 Yellow
Nick Folk NE 30-34 88.2% 37 127 143 Green Greg Zuerlein NYJ 27-32 84.4% 30 111 125 Green
Mason Crosby GB 26-32 81.3% 47 126 140 Green Ryan Santoso JAX 26-32 81.3% 30 108 123 Red
Dustin Hopkins LAC 26-32 81.3% 44 123 136 Green Other kickers who may win jobs:
Wil Lutz NO 26-31 83.9% 45 123 137 Yellow Kicker Team FG Pct XP Pts1 Pts2 Risk
Jonathan Garibay DAL 27-33 81.8% 43 123 138 Red Lirim Hajrullahu DAL 27-33 81.8% 44 126 140 Red
Jake Elliott PHI 28-32 87.5% 40 122 138 Green Jose Borregales TB 26-32 81.3% 45 125 138 Red
Chris Boswell PIT 29-33 87.9% 34 121 138 Green Jake Verity IND 26-33 78.8% 37 117 131 Red
Randy Bullock TEN 27-32 84.4% 40 120 135 Green Eddy Pineiro NYJ 28-32 87.5% 31 116 131 Red
Jason Sanders MIA 27-33 81.8% 38 120 135 Green Austin Seibert DET 27-32 84.4% 34 115 129 Red
Younghoe Koo ATL 29-33 87.9% 33 120 137 Green Andrew Mevis JAX 26-32 81.3% 30 108 122 Red

403
 2022 Fantasy Defense Projections
L isted below are the 2022 KUBIAK projections for fantasy
team defense. The main elements of team defense projec-
tions are:
tions may look very different from the fantasy defense values
from the 2021 season. Safeties and shutouts are not common
enough to have a significant effect on the projections. Team
defenses are also projected with Risk factor of Green, Yellow,
• Schedule strength is very important for projecting fan- or Blue.
tasy defense. In addition to projection of separate categories, we also give
• Categories used for scoring in fantasy defense have no an overall total based on our generic fantasy scoring formula:
consistency from year-to-year whatsoever, with the ex- one point for a sack, two points for a fumble recovery or in-
ception of sacks and interceptions. terception, and six points for a touchdown. Remember that
certain teams (for example, New Orleans) will score better if
Fumble recoveries and defensive touchdowns are forecast your league also gives points for limiting opponents’ scoring
based on league averages, rather than the team’s totals in or yardage. Special teams touchdowns are listed separately
these categories from a year ago. This is why the 2022 projec- and are not included in the fantasy scoring total listed.

Fantasy Team Defense Projections, 2022

Team Fant Pts Sack Int FR Def TD Risk ST TD Team Fant Pts Sack Int FR Def TD Risk ST TD
PIT 100 42.2 13.1 10.7 1.7 Green 0.5 CAR 91 36.3 12.2 10.2 1.6 Green 0.6
BUF 96 36.7 14.8 9.7 1.8 Green 0.4 IND 90 30.7 13.9 10.3 1.7 Green 0.6
NE 96 33.7 15.4 10.3 1.9 Green 0.6 TB 89 31.9 13.3 10.2 1.7 Green 0.4
NO 96 35.6 14.3 10.4 1.8 Green 0.6 WAS 88 32.9 11.4 11.6 1.6 Blue 0.4
SF 95 38.7 12.8 10.5 1.7 Green 0.4 NYG 88 29.0 12.9 11.7 1.7 Green 0.4
TEN 95 37.9 13.0 10.6 1.7 Green 0.3 DEN 88 30.9 13.7 9.8 1.7 Green 0.3
DAL 94 32.7 15.0 10.2 1.8 Green 0.5 LAC 87 33.8 11.9 9.9 1.6 Green 0.4
LAR 94 36.3 13.8 9.8 1.7 Green 0.7 BAL 86 31.9 12.2 10.0 1.6 Blue 0.5
CHI 93 42.2 10.8 10.3 1.5 Yellow 0.4 KC 86 30.4 13.1 9.5 1.7 Green 0.6
CIN 93 33.9 14.0 10.4 1.8 Green 0.4 DET 85 30.7 11.4 11.1 1.6 Green 0.5
GB 93 32.3 14.1 10.8 1.8 Green 0.2 PHI 84 30.2 11.7 10.7 1.6 Green 0.6
HOU 93 32.2 13.7 11.2 1.8 Green 0.3 JAX 84 31.2 11.1 10.7 1.5 Green 0.4
MIA 93 36.6 13.0 9.9 1.7 Green 0.3 NYJ 84 30.3 11.3 10.7 1.5 Green 0.6
MIN 92 37.5 12.1 10.4 1.6 Green 0.6 ATL 82 25.2 13.0 10.3 1.7 Green 0.3
CLE 91 34.4 13.3 10.0 1.7 Green 0.7 SEA 81 27.9 12.0 10.0 1.6 Green 0.4
ARI 91 34.9 13.1 10.0 1.7 Green 0.4 LV 80 31.0 10.7 9.5 1.5 Green 0.5

Projected Defensive Leaders, 2022

Solo Tackles Total Tackles Sacks Interceptions

Player Team Tkl Player Team Tkl Player Team Sacks Player Team Int
R.Smith CHI 135 R.Smith CHI 91 M.Garrett CLE 12.5 J.C.Jackson LAC 3.7
D.White TB 130 D.White TB 87 T.J.Watt PIT 12.4 J.Simmons DEN 3.5
B.Martinez NYG 127 D.Davis NO 78 J.Bosa LAC 12.3 T.Campbell JAX 3.5
F.Warner SF 124 D.Perryman LV 77 A.Donald LAR 12.2 J.Bates CIN 3.4
F.Oluokun JAX 123 I.Simmons ARI 77 N.Bosa SF 11.8 T.Diggs DAL 3.4
D.Leonard IND 123 F.Oluokun JAX 77 C.Jordan NO 11.2 J.Poyer BUF 3.3
C.J.Mosley NYJ 122 F.Warner SF 77 V.Miller BUF 11.0 K.Byard TEN 3.2
E.Kendricks MIN 119 D.Campbell GB 76 B.Burns CAR 10.6 M.Peters BAL 3.2
C.Holcomb WAS 114 T.Edmunds BUF 76 J.Allen JAX 10.5 J.Holland MIA 3.1
T.J.Edwards PHI 114 B.Baker ARI 74 T.Hendrickson CIN 10.5 M.Lattimore NO 3.1
D.Campbell GB 114 C.J.Mosley NYJ 74 H.Reddick PHI 10.4 J.Johnson CLE 3.0
L.Wilson CIN 114 D.Leonard IND 74 J.Sweat PHI 10.4 C.Awuzie CIN 3.0

404
 College Football Introduction
and Statistical Toolbox
T he College Football Playoff National Championship
Game this past January signaled both a changing of the
guard and a reinforcement of the status quo. The Georgia
can leverage their NIL (name, image, and likeness) potential
and seek greener pastures. And collectives of team-adjacent
boosters have become prominent factors in the recruiting pro-
Bulldogs rallied in the fourth quarter against Alabama with cess, whether in compliance with NCAA guidelines or not.
big plays on both sides of the ball to claim their first title in Combined, these elements may challenge some of the base-
more than 40 years, a breakthrough victory that avenged a line expectations we have for team performance in the coming
humbling loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship year. Projections rooted in recent team performance history
Game which marred an otherwise perfect and dominant regu- and trajectory have a great track record, but they may need to
lar season. It also avenged the second-and-26 overtime heart- be re-examined once the 2022 season data pours in.
breaker in the National Championship Game against Alabama One of the programs not featured in our projected F+ top-
four years prior, plus a handful of other great, but not-quite- 50 is the USC Trojans, the poster child for this new wide-
title-contender chances for Georgia over the decades. For the open era of transfers, NIL, and roster management. Based
first time in long time, a “new” champion was crowned, but on recent performance history, and even accounting for up-
there was still something very familiar about the program cel- grades in talent with high-profile transfers at quarterback
ebrating on the podium. (Caleb Williams from Oklahoma) and wide receiver (Jordan
Maintaining a very good program to be in position for a Addison from Pittsburgh), the Trojans still don’t project to
championship run is a challenge met consistently by only a have a breakout season. Our F+ projection model identifies
handful of teams on an annual basis. Elevating a very good modest transformations year to year more so than dramatic
program to the very top requires the rare synchronization ones, and USC is only projected to elevate from No. 78 over-
of elite talent acquisition, elite talent development, and elite all in 2021 to No. 60 in 2022. But those players, along with
talent deployment. Under Nick Saban disciple Kirby Smart, an upgrade at head coach (Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma),
Georgia had assembled one of the only rosters that could rival sure seem to be indicators that a dramatic jolt to USC’s po-
Alabama’s man to man. And both teams overwhelmed their tential is very possible. And if the Trojans do immediately
semifinal opponents in blowout fashion, underscoring the gap become contenders in one offseason, it will have executed a
between the rarified elite class and the rest of college football. new playbook for other programs with significant resources
Georgia’s national championship run wasn’t inevitable or pre- to follow in the future.
scribed, but it wasn’t a shock to the system either. There are other landscape shifts we’ll be monitoring in the
The Bulldogs are one of only three programs heading into coming season and beyond. The Pac-12 is officially ditching
the 2022 season that has finished each of the previous five its division structure this season, meaning the best two teams
seasons ranked among the top 10 in our final F+ ratings. The will compete for the conference title in December rather than
others are Alabama and Ohio State. On the strength of that the best of the North versus the best of the South. Major con-
sustained success and their recruiting prowess, they are also ference re-alignment bombshells (Oklahoma and Texas to the
the only three programs to have signed a top-five class in each SEC; Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU to the Big 12; USC
of the last three recruiting cycles according to 247sports.com. and UCLA to the Big Ten) have all been announced as of this
Elite success begets elite talent acquisition and vice versa. The writing, and perhaps other big dominoes will topple within
best teams are the most loaded teams. The Bulldogs, Crimson hours or days after we publish. The reverberations of each of
Tide, and Buckeyes project to be the three most likely teams those moves will not be fully felt for several seasons, but they
to contend for the national championship this season. By our all contribute to a state of uncertainty in college football’s
calculations, there is an 88% likelihood that at least one of here and now.
the three will receive a CFP berth at season’s end, and a 13% We’ll keep anchoring ourselves in the data, and in the
likelihood that all three are in the field. emerging narratives of the players, coaches, teams, and
While these elite programs are firmly entrenched at the top, games that surprise and delight us every week from late Au-
the rest of the college football landscape appears to be rapidly gust through early January. Enjoy every twist and turn, every
shifting beneath them. Programs can now dramatically change Heisman moment, and every stunning upset along with us at
their roster profiles through transfer eligibility rules. Players FootballOutsiders.com.

405
406 COLLEGE FOOTBALL INTRODUCTION AND STATISTICAL TOOLBOX

College Statistics Toolbox Each capsule begins with a statistical snapshot, highlighting
the team’s 2022 mean wins projection along with projected
Regular readers of FootballOutsiders.com may be familiar likelihoods of reaching key performance benchmarks—the
with our college football stats published throughout the year. chance to claim a division or conference championship, ap-
Others may be learning about our advanced approach to college pear in the College Football Playoff, and to meet or exceed
football analysis for the first time by reading this book. In either total win thresholds. Game-by-game win likelihoods, recent
case, this College Statistics Toolbox section is highly recom- performance data, and other projection factors are also includ-
mended reading before getting into our top-50 team capsules. ed in the snapshot.

No. 1: Georgia Bulldogs

F/+ Projected Ratings system. The resulting metric is both powerfully predictive and
sensibly evaluative (Table 1). F+ overall team ratings, offensive
Introduced in Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, our F+ rat- unit ratings, and defensive unit ratings represent each team and
ings combine Brian Fremeau’s drive-based FEI ratings and Bill unit’s projected standard deviation above or below average.
Connelly’s play-by-play-based SP+ ratings. Though team effi- Five years of recent performance history data are the foun-
ciency performance leaders at the drive and play level are often dation of the annual projection model, weighted for the most
similar, there is a clear distinction between the two approaches. recent results. Weighted recruiting ratings from several sourc-
Merging the two rating systems produces a reliable rating that es and returning production data are additional projection
counterbalances outliers produced by each individual rating model inputs.

Table 1. F+ Projected Ratings Accuracy

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Correlation of Projected F+ Ratings to End of Year F+ Ratings 0.848 0.847 0.822 0.737 0.789
Win Percentage of Teams with Projected F+ Ratings Advantage 0.669 0.680 0.672 0.650 0.666
Win Percentage of Teams in Weeks 0-2 with Projected F+ Ratings Advantage 0.822 0.734 0.769 0.684 0.747

Mean Wins and Win Distributions mean wins calculation.

Individual game win likelihoods are also used to calculate
Our win likelihood formula calculates the likelihood of vic- the likelihood of winning a division or conference champi-
tory for a given team in its individual games based on F/+ onship, and to produce win probability distributions. Our
projections and the site (home, road, or neutral) of the games. formula for calculating the likelihood of a College Football
The sum of individual game win likelihoods represents the Playoff berth includes factors such as the likelihood of an
average number of wins each team projects to tally over the undefeated regular season record, the likelihood of winning
course of its regular season schedule. Potential conference at least 10 games, and the strength of a team’s conference and
championship games and bowl games are not included in the overall schedule.
 COLLEGE FOOTBALL INTRODUCTION AND STATISTICAL TOOLBOX 407

Strength of Schedule possession, but drives that fall short of the end zone can also
add scoring value attributed to the offense. National field goal
Our strength of schedule (SOS) calculations are not a sim- success rates correlate strongly with proximity of the attempt
ple average of the Projected F+ ratings of each team’s oppo- to the end zone, and an offense that drives deep into opponent
nents. Instead, SOS represents the average number of losses territory to set up a chip shot field goal generates more scor-
that an elite team (two standard deviations better than aver- ing value than one that ends a drive at the edge of or outside
age) would have against the schedule. The distinction is im- field goal range. Conversely, an offense that fails to move the
portant. An elite team that plays No. 1 Georgia and No. 130 ball or has negative yardage on a possession not only fails to
Massachusetts in a two-game stretch would be more likely to produce a scoring opportunity but also sets up its opponent for
lose a game than if it played No. 65 UAB and No. 66 Louisi- success on its next drive.
ana instead. A simple average of opponent ratings might judge The value generated by an offense on a given possession is
these two schedules to be equivalent. the difference between the drive-ending value and the value of
FBS teams dominate FCS opponents, winning 93.1% of field position at the start of the drive. Offensive and defensive
these matchups over the last five seasons. Though not all efficiency are calculated as the average per-possession values
FCS opponents are created equal, our win likelihood for- generated or lost by the offense and defense, respectively. Offen-
mula only takes the projected strength of the FBS team into sive FEI and Defensive FEI are the opponent-adjusted per-pos-
account, and all teams with a positive F+ projected rating are session values generated or lost by these units, adjusted accord-
projected to have a 100% win likelihood against any FCS ing to the strength of the opponent defenses and offenses faced.
opponents they face.

Returning Talent Index and Expected Points Added (EPA)

Though not an explicit factor in our F+ projected ratings,
Returning Production expected points added (EPA) is a versatile, descriptive effi-
Provided by Bill Connelly, returning offensive and defen- ciency metric referenced throughout the top-50 team capsules.
sive production represent the percentage of key statistical EPA measures success and explosion on any given play, con-
performance measures recorded last season by unit person- sidering the context of down, distance, yards to the end zone,
nel that will fill out the team’s roster this season. The relative and game situation to translate the result of every play into a
weight of production measures on offense and defense vary point value; specifically, the change in point value between
by position. Transfers are accounted for based on production the beginning and the end of the play. It is designed to precise-
recorded with the previous team, including production lost ly answer the question “How well did a team or unit perform
due to a transfer out of a roster and production gained by a compared to expectations?” on a single play or even across
transfer into it. drives, games, and seasons.
EPA figures for college football are calculated by Meyappan
Subbaiah of Zelus Analytics (@msubbaiah1), Saiem Gilani of
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Tomahawk Nation (@saiemgilani), and Parker Fleming (@
statsowar). The figures are available in the cfbscrapR package
Developed by Brian Fremeau, FEI ratings represent the for the statistical software R; you can find the data, technical
opponent-adjusted per-possession scoring advantage a team documentation, and more information at https://saiemgilani.
would be expected to have on a neutral field against an aver- github.io/cfbscrapR/.
age opponent. FEI ratings are produced from the results of
non-garbage possessions (an average of 23.6 possessions per
game) in FBS vs. FBS games.
An average offense facing an average defense can expect
Eckel Rate
to score 2.1 points on average at the conclusion of each drive. Eckel rate is the ratio of productive drives in a game, a mea-
If a given drive begins at the offense’s own 15-yard line, the sure of game control more informative than traditional time of
average scoring value is only 1.6 points. If it begins at the op- possession. A productive drive is any drive where a team ei-
ponent’s 15-yard line, the average scoring value is 4.6 points. ther has a big-play touchdown or a scoring opportunity (first-
Offensive and defensive efficiency is in part a function of the and-10 across the opponent’s 40-yard line).
intrinsic value of starting field position.
Touchdowns represent the ultimate goal of an offensive Brian Fremeau
 NCAA Top 50
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs

For the first time since 1980, the Georgia Bulldogs are na- last five years, with two first-place finishes in that span. An-
tional champions. In just their second College Football Play- choring the back seven on Georgia’s defense will be corner-
off appearance, the Bulldogs avenged their 2017 overtime back Kelee Ringo, who had the game-sealing interception in
loss to Alabama, scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter to win the 2021 National Championship Game. Also returning to the
33-18 in the National Championship Game. How did they get field will be safety Tykee Smith; Smith transferred from West
there? Georgia’s magical season began with an absolute slog Virginia but missed time due to injury. The Bulldogs will have
against Clemson, then ranked No. 3 at the time. The Bulldogs a similar situation to last year on defense, with a lot of turnover
averaged -0.264 EPA/play against the Tigers, holding Clem- but a lot of talent, and there’s reason to believe Kirby Smart’s
son to -0.497 EPA/play. The difference in that game was a defense could be of similar quality to last year.
74-yard interception return, and as it turns out, that defensive On offense, quarterback and National Championship Game
performance would foreshadow exactly how Georgia made it MVP Stetson Bennett will lead the Bulldogs again, although
to the championship. who exactly he leads will look much different than 2021. Ben-
Georgia’s defense put on an absolute clinic in 2022: the Bull- nett’s offense did more than enough, as they only needed three
dogs held 12 of 15 opponents to fewer than 14 points and 14 of scores to win in three of their games. In terms of efficiency,
15 to fewer than 20 points. Georgia ranked first nationally in the Bulldogs’ 0.045 EPA/rush ranked 52nd nationally, but the
EPA/Play, EPA/pass, rushing success rate, big play rate, Eckel Bulldogs’ style and game states really meant that they were
rate, and points per quality possession. If that display of domi- running to end the games as soon as the first half. Georgia
nance fails to convince the average fan of Georgia’s defensive will have to replace 53.9% of all rushing attempts, as James
excellence, one can point to the five first-round draft picks from Cook (63rd to Buffalo) and Zamir White (122nd to Las Vegas)
Georgia’s defense: Travon Walker (first to the Jaguars), Jordan move on to the NFL. Kendall Milton, a four-star rising junior,
Davis (13th to the Eagles), Quay Walker (22nd to the Packers), will take the lion’s share of reps (56 attempts, 4.7 yards per at-
Devonte Wyatt (28th to the Packers), and Lewis Cine (32nd tempt, 1 touchdown in 2021). In the passing game, Georgia’s
to the Vikings). In all, Georgia had eight draft picks on the offense was one of the more ruthless in the nation: the Bull-
defensive side of the ball (cornerback Derion Kendrick, line- dogs ranked third in EPA/play with 0.393 EPA/pass. Only two
backer Channing Tindall, and linebacker Nakobe Dean all went other teams averaged more than 0.300 EPA/pass. The pass-
in the third round or later), which speaks both to the quality ing attack should be a little heftier than in 2021, albeit with
of last year’s defense and the immense challenge of replacing the same deep options. Few offenses have one tight end as
that quality. Georgia returns just 44% of defensive production, good as Brock Bowers (team-high 71 targets and 882 receiv-
117th in the nation. Couple that turnover with the loss of defen- ing yards), Arik Gilbert (a five-star prospect who transferred
sive coordinator Dan Lanning, who took the Oregon job, and from LSU and has been working with the team for a year), and
the Georgia defense has a tall order to replicate their historic Darnell Washington (a five-star recruit, a rising junior, with
dominance of 2021. The Bulldogs will replace their entire start- 12 targets and 15.4 yards per completion in 2021), let alone
ing defensive line with some combination of Zion Logue, Jalen all three. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken will have the
Carter, and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, all blue-chip recruits. In flexibility to move those big bodies all over the field, creating
fact, Georgia’s replacements are all blue chips, as Kirby Smart’s matchup nightmares for opponents in 2022. And, oh, should
Bulldogs have ranked in the top five in recruiting ranking the anyone figure out how to account for the tight ends inside, the
408
 NCAA TOP 50 409

Bulldogs can rely on deep threat Adonai Mitchell (52 targets, have to navigate tricky road games at South Carolina, Mis-
14.8 yards per completion, 4 touchdowns), among a bevy of sissippi State, and Kentucky in order to return to the SEC
other athletic options. The line returns four starters, including Championship Game. The key for Georgia will be to exploit
tackle Broderick Jones who filled in the last four games of the talent disparities between their defense and opposing offenses
season in 2021. The Georgia offense might look different in and overwhelm defenses with matchups on offense. There are
2021, but don’t expect a drop-off in quality. certainly SEC teams on the rise, but Georgia’s talent is so far
What will it take for Georgia to repeat? An early test against ahead of the middle class, there’s little doubt they’ll be back in
Oregon will provide some perspective, and the Bulldogs will Atlanta playing for the SEC Championship again.

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Alabama Crimson Tide scored with 10:14 left in the bama had six trips inside the Aggies’ 25-yard line and came
fourth quarter to take an 18-13 lead against the Georgia Bull- away with just 23 total points—and those red zone struggles
dogs in the National Championship Game. Then, seemingly haunted them in the National Championship Game, as drops
on the cusp of a sixth title for Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide turned potentially productive drives into field goals (18 points
all but collapsed, allowing 20 points to Georgia and ulti- on 6 quality possessions).
mately losing 33-18. To come so close to yet another title was Young returns for 2022, but the surrounding offensive land-
no small feat for Saban’s Alabama. The Crimson Tide were scape will look dramatically different. The Crimson Tide are
tasked with replacing seven offensive players, including quar- returning 65% of 2021 production, 65th in the nation. Rob-
terback Mac Jones and receiving threats Jaylen Waddle and inson (responsible for 57.4% of all rushing attempts) was
DeVonta Smith, and had obvious holes. drafted by the Washington Commanders in the third round,
Bryce Young took over for Jones, leading the offense. and leading receivers John Metchie III (22.6% of all receiving
Young, a former five-star recruit and the second-rated player yards) and Jameson Williams (31.3% of all receiving touch-
in his class, completed 66.4% of his passes and averaged 8.8 downs) were chosen in Round 2 (Houston) and 12th overall
yards per attempt. With Young at the helm, the Alabama of- (Detroit), respectively. To replace Robinson in the rushing
fense looked starkly different to the previous iteration under attack, Alabama will look to Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr
Jones. Young averaged 41.6 dropbacks per game to Jones’s Gibbs. Gibbs averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 143 attempts
32.9, which speaks partly to two key changes. First, Alabama in 2021, with -0.037 EPA/play and a 32.0% rushing success
played in five one-score games in 2021, a much more compet- rate. At wide receiver, things are more nebulous. The Crim-
itive slate than 2020, in which they won games by an average son Tide are losing 64.1% of total targets from 2021 and will
margin of 29.1 points and played only one one-score game. In turn to Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton and sophomores
2021, the Crimson Tide won games by an average margin of Ja’Corey Brooks and JoJo Earle. Burton, a four-star recruit
22.3, their lowest season average since 2015. More competi- out of high school, was routinely involved in the Georgia of-
tive games mean fewer situations where running out the clock fense but rarely featured in his two years (82 total targets, 8
through the rushing game is important. Second, Alabama suf- touchdowns in 24 games played). Brooks, at 6-foot-2 and 196
fered an almost devastating dearth of running backs, losing pounds, has the frame to be a physical deep threat for Young
numbers two and three on the depth chart (Jase McClellan to target, but much less experience, averaging 12.8 yards per
and Roydell Williams) early in the season. With only Brian reception on 25 targets in 2021. Earle spent most of his time as
Robinson Jr. to take carries, Alabama was almost forced to at- a return specialist before an injury sidelined him towards the
tack vertically. The Crimson Tide offense struggled mightily end of the season but should take a lion’s share of the reps at
in the red zone to start 2021—in a loss at Texas A&M, Ala- receiver this fall. Look for returning tight end Cameron Latu
410 NCAA TOP 50

(7 red zone touchdowns, 15.7 yards per reception) to take an breakups in 2021, pose a threat to quarterbacks who might
expanded role in the receiving game as well. Additionally, the be able to avoid Anderson’s pass rush. Replacing cornerback
loss of tackle Evan Neal (seventh overall to the New York Josh Jobe will be no small task; when he was out of the na-
Giants) leaves a gaping hole in a questionable offensive line. tional title game, Georgia’s Stetson Bennett had few problems
Last year, Young was pressured on 36.2% of dropbacks (32nd in the pass game. Kool-Aid McKinstry and Khyree Jackson
most among FBS quarterbacks), and the Crimson Tide had were thrown, untested, into key positions last year, but will
injury issues all over the line. That will be of concern again in start the season at cornerback for the Tide.
2022; the biggest question will be who can fill in at the tackle Alabama had a down year in 2021, relative to their recent
position. Expect Vanderbilt transfer Tyler Steen (15 pressures program standard, and still came just a few drives away from
allowed) to take one spot, and sophomore J.C. Latham, a five- winning yet another national title. As Bryce Young finishes
star recruit who had to fill in twice in 2021, to be in the mix his college career, the talent is there for the Crimson Tide to
for the other. compete for the Playoff again, but how that talent will click
On the defensive side of the ball, things are brighter for the in the right spots is still an open question. Nick Saban is play-
Crimson Tide. They return stalwart linebacker Will Anderson ing the transfer game to fill holes at wide receiver, running
Jr. Anderson won the Nagurski Trophy in 2021, leading the back, and offensive line, and it’s not hard to imagine that those
team with 82 pressures last season and 53 stops. Alongside groups could need some time to grow to match the rest of
Anderson, senior Henry To’o To’o, a four-star recruit who the Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide have a marquee non-
transferred from Tennessee in 2021, returns. To’o To’o led conference game against Texas and trips to Tennessee, LSU,
the team in tackles with 75 last season and ranked second in and Ole Miss loom later in the season; if the Tide are going to
snaps. In pass coverage, seniors Jordan Battle and DeMarcco finish their unsettled business from 2021, they’ll need impact
Hellams, who combined for six interceptions and eight pass transfers to step up sooner rather than later.

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes

Ryan Day knew he had a solid option to replace Justin productive tight end who is a solid blocker (fourth on the
Fields in 2021, but no one could’ve anticipated just how well team with 39 targets, averaging 11.9 yards per completion),
that option would pan out. Freshman C.J. Stroud had a ca- went 101st overall to the Jets. Those three were responsible
reer year in 2021, averaging 0.531 EPA/pass and completing for 50.7% of all 2021 targets, but the 2022 receiving corps
71.6% of his passes. Ohio State’s offense was historic, scor- has as much, if not more, upside. Slot receiver Jaxon Smith-
ing touchdowns on 47.4% of non-garbage drives (most in the Njigba ranked first in the Power 5 with 1,595 total yards
nation), and averaging a quality possession on 65.3% of all in 2021, averaging 16.8 yards per reception. Smith had six
non-garbage drives (most in the Power 5). The Buckeyes av- games with 10 or more targets, including five straight such
eraged 0.291 EPA/pass in 2021, ranking third in the nation, games to close the season. Smith-Njigba is already climbing
and Stroud’s 44 touchdowns and 4,424 yards helped him fin- draft boards and is poised to post big numbers again this fall.
ish fourth in Heisman voting his freshman year. As secondary options in the passing game, sophomore Mar-
Ohio State’s high-powered offense will have to retool a vin Harrison Jr., a four-star recruit with 3 touchdowns and
bit, replacing receivers Garrett Wilson (12 touchdowns, 15.1 139 yards in 2021, should feature strongly, complemented
yards per completion) and Chris Olave (13 touchdowns, 936 by sophomore Emeka Egbuka, a five-star recruit rated as the
total yards). Wilson went 10th overall in the NFL draft, to top receiver in his class.
the New York Jets, and Olave went right after, at 11th, to the In the rushing game, running back TreVeyon Henderson
New Orleans Saints. Tight end Jeremy Ruckert, a somewhat returns and will be the workhorse. In 2021, Henderson aver-
 NCAA TOP 50 411

aged 6.8 yards per carry and a 38.2% first down rate on 183 with new coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles comes to Ohio
attempts. He also featured heavily in the passing game, catch- State after a couple of excellent seasons at Oklahoma State,
ing 27 passes for four touchdowns, and he dominated in short most notably finishing first in rushing efficiency allowed in
yardage, with an 84% success rate. He’ll be supported by a 2021 (-0.254 EPA/play). With Knowles’ expertise and the
solid but retooling offensive line unit. The Buckeyes will re- Buckeyes’ experience (76% returning production on defense,
turn three starters from 2021: Luke Wypler at center and Paris 30th nationally), Ohio State will look to improve consistency
Johnson and Dawand Jones who will start at left and right and be able to challenge the strong run games they’ll see in
tackle, respectively. Depth at offensive line will be an issue the Big Ten East this fall. Edge rusher Zach Harrison (26 pres-
and replacing tackles Nicholas Petit-Frere (No. 69 to Tennes- sures, 24 tackles) will terrorize opposing quarterbacks, while
see) and Thayer Munford (No. 238 to Las Vegas) will be no returning cornerback Denzel Burke will lock down oppo-
small task, but the Buckeyes have talent along the line. nents’ No. 1 receiving options. Steele Chambers (39 tackles, 5
Ohio State’s defense held the team back, particularly in two pressures) should take a step forward in the run game as well.
games. Averaging -0.279 EPA/rush, fourth in the nation, the The Buckeyes have a tough test in Week 1, hosting Notre
Buckeyes shut down most opposing run games, led by defen- Dame, and draw Wisconsin and Iowa from the West. With in-
sive linemen Tyreke Smith (158th pick to Seattle) and Haskell division rivals Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State all
Garrett (UDFA to the Titans), who combined for 49 pressures, looking to vie for the conference championship and a high
24 tackles, and 24 stops. The tale of Ohio State’s season was probability of having to play the West champion twice, Ohio
driven by those two games, though, against Michigan and Or- State will have its work cut out for it in reaching the College
egon, where the Buckeyes allowed 0.498 and 0.284 EPA/rush, Football Playoff. However, the Buckeyes will also have the
respectively. Those two games, Ohio State’s only two losses, strength of schedule leeway to recover should they stumble.
showed the one real weakness of the 2021 team: when the run With one of the nation’s most threatening offenses and one of
defense got a poor matchup, the entire defense fell apart. For the game’s most ruthless defensive minds, the Buckeyes are
2022, Ohio State will look to ameliorate some of those issues well-poised to challenge in 2022.

No. 4 Michigan Wolverines

In 2021, the Michigan Wolverines climbed two moun- (131st to the Titans) accounted for 49.1% of all Michigan’s
tains. First, they beat their rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes, rushing attempts and 51.4% of all of Michigan’s rushing
for the first time since 2011 and just the third time in the last touchdowns, averaging 5.0 yards per attempt, and the Wolver-
20 meetings. Secondly, the Wolverines qualified for the Play- ines’ 0.118 EPA/rush ranked 24th nationally, even though they
off, becoming just the third Big Ten school to do so since its rushed 2.3% more often than an average team. Haskins shined
inception. Leaving aside the issues with seeding—the No. 2 with his yards after contact ability, averaging 3.10 yards after
Wolverines beat No. 13 Iowa 42-3 and No. 1 Georgia lost, yet contact per attempt in 2021, and that will be the hardest facet
Michigan still found themselves seeded second and facing the of his game for Michigan to replace. In a secondary role last
Bulldogs—qualifying for the Playoff was a huge step for Jim season, Blake Corum showed flashes (6.4 yards per attempt,
Harbaugh’s team. After a brief final flirtation with a return to 3.61 YAC/attempt), but he will have huge shoes to fill as he
the NFL, Harbaugh is back to try and build on the Wolverines’ takes over the role. In the passing game, the Wolverines will
2021 success, despite losing both coordinators and some sub- return Cade McNamara, who will look to improve in pushing
stantial pieces on both sides of the ball. the ball downfield a bit (8.0 yards per attempt, 63.8% comple-
On offense, the loss of workhorse running back Hassan tion, 14 touchdowns in 2021). Michigan’s conservatism in
Haskins all but dominates the offseason storylines. Haskins the passing game is a feature, not a bug, but the return of the
412 NCAA TOP 50

injured Ronnie Bell alongside top target Cornelius Johnson 14 total pressures in an ancillary role his junior year but will
(20.1% of targets, 16.3 yards per reception) could provide be a featured pass-rusher this fall as a senior, joined by Taylor
Michigan with a few more options to develop the downfield Upshaw. Mazi Smith, who had 24 tackles and 19 pressures
passing game. How that will manifest is an open question, as last fall, has been generating a lot of offseason buzz as a threat
coordinator Josh Gattis left for Miami; taking his place will along the line as well. Michigan’s front will be bolstered by
be offensive line coach Sherrone Moore and quarterbacks three-year starting cornerback Gemon Green and safety R.J.
coach Matt Weiss. Certainly, there will be continuity in the Moten, a junior who saw starting action last fall.
run game, but for Michigan to successfully defend its confer- Michigan’s season will be defined by how they replace pro-
ence title, the Wolverines will have to take a step forward in duction on the defensive side of the ball and how they can de-
passing efficiency. velop the downfield offense in the passing game. The sched-
The Michigan defense held 10 of 14 opponents to fewer ule is favorable, hosting rivals Michigan State and Penn State.
than 20 points in 2021. It was a stellar unit featuring two first- The Wolverines have a three-game buildup to a trip to Iowa
round draft picks: edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who went City and get Rutgers, Nebraska, and Illinois in the month be-
second overall to the Lions, and defensive back Daxton Hill, fore their end-of-season showdown with Ohio State. Michi-
who went 31st overall to the Bengals. Edge rusher David Oja- gan’s program sits on a precarious edge—it’s almost impos-
bo was selected 45th by the Ravens as well. Between those sible for a team that just accomplished its best season in recent
three, the Wolverines will have to replace some 100 tackles history to avoid regression, and with the coordinator turnover
and 113 pressures. In all, Michigan returns just 43% of defen- and the losses on defense, the recipe is there for Michigan to
sive production, in addition to losing defensive coordinator fall back into the upper middle class of the Big Ten. Can Jim
Mike Macdonald to the Ravens. Jesse Minter takes over as de- Harbaugh engineer another year of progress? Can the Wolver-
fensive coordinator after experience with Indiana State, Geor- ines head off upstart Michigan State and challenge rival Ohio
gia State, Vanderbilt, and the Baltimore Ravens. He’ll have a State yet again? To repeat as Playoff contenders will be no
tall task to repeat the Wolverines’ 2021 dominance, but he will small task, but with multiple wide receiver options and some
have some talented players to work with. Mike Morris is the talented fresh faces on defense, the Wolverines will be look-
next man up to replace Hutchinson on the edge. Morris had ing to strike.

No. 5 Clemson Tigers

Two true facts about Clemson’s 2021 season are that the ACC championships, including a stretch of six straight from
Tigers had a down year, and the Tigers won 10 games. Most 2015-2020. Additionally, Swinney’s Clemson continues to
FBS programs would kill to have a rock bottom of 10 wins, build, ranking in the top 10 of team recruiting rankings in five
but in reality, such is life in the ACC. After a season opening of the last six seasons. Swinney’s success can be no better
slugfest with Georgia, Clemson let N.C. State (first win over hallmarked by the fact that his coordinators were both hired
Clemson since 2011) and Pitt (since 2016) score some revenge away this winter: Brent Venables took over at Oklahoma and
while derailing then No. 13 Wake Forest’s Playoff dreams for Tony Elliott at Virginia. The Tigers replaced both coordina-
an underwhelming season. Clemson won 10 games for the tors by promoting long-term internal assistants Wes Goodwin
11th consecutive season, finishing in the AP Poll Top 15 for (defense), Mickey Conn (defense), and Brandon Streeter (of-
the 10th consecutive season. Dabo Swinney’s tenure at Clem- fense).
son has been nothing short of incredible. Since taking over This fall, Clemson will look to right the ship, particularly
full-time for Tommy Bowden in 2009, Swinney’s Clemson on offense. The Tigers ranked 51st in offensive EPA/play,
has made seven New Year’s Six/BCS bowls, and won seven hindered mostly by a passing offense that can be described
 NCAA TOP 50 413

as nothing short of disastrous. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, trends, ranking 17th in EPA/play allowed (-0.121). They’ve
a five-star quarterback who took over for 2021 No. 1 overall lost cornerback Andrew Booth (43rd to the Vikings) and line-
pick Trevor Lawrence, looked erratic throughout the season, backer Baylor Spector (231st to Buffalo) to the draft but re-
completing a mere 54.4% of his passes (129th among qualify- turn experienced options at all 11 positions. Standouts safety
ing quarterbacks) and throwing nine touchdowns to nine inter- Andrew Mukuba (34 tackles, 6 pass break ups, 62.9% com-
ceptions on the season. In addition to the low quality of play, pletion rate allowed) and cornerback Sheridan Jones (62.1%
Uiagalelei’s penchant for catastrophe firmly set the ceiling for completion rate allowed, 12.8 yards per completion) will lead
Clemson’s season: in the team’s three losses against Georgia the coverage. The defensive line should feature some rotation,
(pick-six), N.C. State (interception in plus territory), and Pitt with plenty of talented options, but junior Myles Murphy (42
(pick-six), Clemson’s passing game proved the difference. pressures, 9 sacks, 21 tackles) will man one edge position;
Uiagalelei returns for 2022 and will look to atone for 2021 another name to watch is Ruke Orhorhoro, an interior defen-
surrounded by an immense wealth of talent. Running back sive lineman playing in his fourth season, who has been suf-
Will Shipley came on strong down the stretch, with 100 yards ficiently disruptive in limited time: 9.5 tackles for loss and 3
in three of his final five games and will be running behind a sacks in 9 starts.
line with returning four starters. At the wide receiver position, Managing coordinator turnover will be no small task for
Joseph Ngata will take over as the main target with Justyn Clemson, but one of the benefits of sustained program suc-
Ross heading to the NFL (UDFA to Kansas City). Ngata had cess involves continuity in process and culture. Clemson will
11.6% of Clemson’s targets last season, averaging 19.0 yards have as much, if not more, talent than all 12 opponents on its
per reception. Beaux Collins (16.3% of targets, 13.1 yards per schedule; if the Tigers want to prove 2021 was a mere bump
reception, 3 touchdowns) and E.J. Williams (19 targets, 7.2 and the road and not the start of a new trend, they’ll have
yards per reception) will round out the passing attack. to orchestrate that talent to complement Uiaglelei’s strengths
Clemson’s defense had a season in-line with historical and develop him as a passer.

No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

It’s usually unfair to judge coaches in their first season on 2021 but threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (three
the job, even at a blueblood, but Notre Dame is an obvious of each), is considered the favorite to start in 2022, especially
exception this season. The pieces of Brian Kelly’s perennial after an unimpressive spring showing from Pyne; that being
top-10 teams are mostly still in place, and even if this roster said, the starting job seems far from set in stone, and probably
isn’t one of Marcus Freeman’s construction, he knows it well won’t be for the first few weeks of the season.
enough from last year that the takeover could be seamless. The receiving corps was the weakest link in a strong offense
The Irish rank above average in returning production, and the last year—tight end Michael Mayer caught the most passes,
Freeman era is off to a great start in the transfer portal and in with running back Kyren Williams ranking third in recep-
recruiting. (Their 11 blue-chip recruits in the 2023 class, per tions—and while there are a few intriguing names to watch,
247Sports, are already nearly as many as the 12 they signed in the Irish would probably like to have at least one established
Kelly’s final full class in 2021.) wideout. Despite his position, Mayer might end up in that role
The Irish were willing to experiment at quarterback early this season: his 71 receptions last year set the program record
last year, and while one-and-done transfer Jack Coan ended for a tight end, and there’s little reason to think he’ll be any
up as the clear starter soon enough, both Tyler Buchner and less a part of the attack this year. At running back, Williams
Drew Pyne got a chance to lead the offense. Buchner, a former took 415 carries across the last two seasons, single-handedly
four-star who averaged 8.5 yards per pass and 7.3 per rush in accounting for 44% of Notre Dame’s rushing attempts. The
414 NCAA TOP 50

most experienced remaining option, Chris Tyree, has only ever in a season for Notre Dame, and the Ademilola twins—
taken 129 carries in the last two years, although he’s averaged Justin on the edge, Jayson on the interior—fill out an elite
5.6 yards per carry in that span. The unit lines up behind an line. The linebacker corps was, perhaps surprisingly, strongest
offensive line that should rank highly, although it has some in pass coverage, with Bo Bauer and Jack Kiser both block-
positional conflicts to figure out. ing five passes and intercepting another. Safety Kyle Hamilton
The defense has dealt with some instability in recent years— led the way for the backfield, blocking four passes and picking
Al Golden is the third coordinator to oversee the unit in three off three to earn a selection in the first round of the NFL draft.
seasons, after Freeman and Clark Lea—and it’s safe to assume To replace his production, Freeman looked to the Big Ten and
Freeman’s simple coverages and emphasis on pressure will still plucked another player with a similar line: Brandon Joseph, a
be the focus instead of reverting to the complex alignments Northwestern safety who also put up four passes blocked and
that Golden and Lea often bring. There’s room to experiment, three intercepted in 2021. With Cam Hart, who broke out with
though, considering how experienced and talented the roster seven pass breakups and two interceptions at cornerback last
is. Isaiah Foskey’s eleven sacks last year were the third-most year, the secondary should be a strength for the Irish.

No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners

The parallels between Notre Dame and Oklahoma—two and safety Patrick Fields headed to Stanford—but perhaps the
bluebloods who saw established, successful, but arguably lim- Sooners were due for a bit of a reset anyway.
ited coaches jump ship after 2021, and tapped an elite defen- The offense needed an overhaul after losing the top 2021
sive coordinator to take the reins—are too obvious to ignore. player at three of four skill positions, and that starts with for-
Oklahoma’s been the class of the Big 12 for years, even if mer UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel. One of the most accu-
2021 saw a slight step back, and as long as Brent Venables rate passers in FBS in his underclassman seasons—he tossed
isn’t an unmitigated disaster as head coach (which seems un- 61 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions across 2019 and
likely), the transition shouldn’t be too difficult. Like Notre 2020—Gabriel was lost for the season three games into 2021.
Dame, though, the goal here isn’t just to survive, but to thrive. Even with that injury, though, he’s as sure of a thing as Okla-
The Sooners’ ceiling under Lincoln Riley was that of a homa could hope for at the position after losing two talented
frequent Playoff team, but not quite a true contender—and it quarterbacks. Depth in the skill corps is more of a problem;
grew lower over his tenure. While Oklahoma’s decline over Eric Gray, who ran for 412 yards last year, is the only return-
the last few years hasn’t been anything close to that of other ing rusher to reach triple digits, and of the five receivers to
fallen titans like Nebraska or Florida State, it hasn’t escaped catch 30 or more passes, only Marvin Mims (705 yards, 22.0
notice that their CFP losses went from competitive to laugh- yards per catch) returns. There is, of course, plenty of talent
able, and that they haven’t made the Playoff since 2019. Ven- to work with at both positions, but the Sooners will have to
ables shouldn’t have difficulty accumulating championship hammer out the details quickly.
talent, which gives him room to focus on his biggest off-field The defensive losses are less of a concern, if only because
goal right now: turning around that narrative and showing that the bar to repeat last year’s performance is lower. The big-
the Sooners are capable of contending with teams like Ala- gest hits come on the line, where Nik Bonitto, Isaiah Thomas,
bama and Georgia, who they’ll share a conference with soon and Perrion Winfrey—the team’s top trio in tackles for loss
enough. Oklahoma lost more than a few key players—quar- and sacks—are all lost to the NFL. Oklahoma does have some
terback Caleb Williams followed Riley to USC, running back solid replacement options on the existing roster, but it’s no
Kennedy Brooks went pro, quarterback Spencer Rattler and surprise that Venables plucked some additional linemen out
tight end Austin Stogner both transferred to South Carolina, of the portal, with Tulane’s Jeffery Johnson and Hawaiʻi’s Jo-
 NCAA TOP 50 415

nah Laulu expect to challenge for starting roles. Brian Asa- secondary, respectively; between solid transfer additions and
moah and Fields, both of whom put up 80 tackles last year, are great depth, though, Oklahoma shouldn’t have much trouble
among other key departures in the linebacker corps and the putting together a passable defense at worst.

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin faced a remarkably difficult schedule for a Big Improvement will most obviously start at quarterback. Be-
Ten West team last year—they drew Michigan and Penn State tween Braelon Allen—whose 4.5 yards after contact per at-
from the East, faced Notre Dame and Army in non-confer- tempt ranked second in FBS—and Chez Mellusi—whose 174
ence play, and had to handle Purdue and Iowa in back-to-back rushes were the most by a secondary running back in the Power
weeks—but nobody in Madison is making excuses for missing 5—the rushing attack should be fantastic, but Mertz’s 10-to-11
out on the division title. The Badgers turned the corner dra- touchdown-to-interception ratio and 6.9 yards per attempt left
matically after a 1-3 start that featured late collapses against much to be desired. An increased focus on passing under new
the Fighting Irish and the Wolverines, running off a seven- offensive coordinator Bobby Engram should help matters, but
game winning streak and nearly clawing their way back to the onus to drag Wisconsin’s offense from below-average to at
the conference championship game, but a season-ending loss least passable is on Mertz and his young receiving corps. Ev-
at rival Minnesota laid their weaknesses bare. Graham Mertz erything else, from a solid offensive line to a typical elite run
averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt with no touchdowns and game and even improved play calling, is in place.
an interception, the usually strong rushing corps managed a The Badgers ranked highly in just about every major defen-
paltry 62 yards, and Tanner Morgan managed to comfortably sive statistic last year, and their run defense was particularly
out-pass Wisconsin despite Mertz throwing 22 more passes exceptional—they finished leading the nation in yards per
than his counterpart. carry allowed at every level. But only three starters from that
It speaks to the Badgers’ high standard that the dodgy start unit return, and as good as Wisconsin always is defensively,
and rough landing defined the season, much more than that that youth is going to lead to some growing pains. The line
long winning streak and a solid bowl win over Arizona State. should be an imposing force again, with Keeanu Benton (24
The hope is that Wisconsin can get back to the success of the tackles, five tackles for loss) leading the way, and a linebacker
early 2010s under Bret Bielema and now-incumbent coach corps led by Nick Herbig (61 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss,
Paul Chryst: frequent New Year’s Six appearances, Big Ten four pass breakups) is intimidating as well. The talent is there
championship contention and perhaps fringe CFP chances. for another year as one of football’s best defenses, but once
The last four years have only seen one ranked finish for this again, Wisconsin faces the tall task of putting it together and
team, but the Badgers have earned the right to expect better. capitalizing on the strengths that have them in the F+ top 10.
416 NCAA TOP 50

No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies

Ask 10 people about Texas A&M football’s outlook this need a particularly big step up here.
offseason and you’ll get at least 10 different responses. The Whoever starts will have more than enough help to excel.
optimists can point to a 2020 team that nearly made the Play- The offense does lose some major pieces—most prominently
off, a 2021 team that clawed its way to 8-4 (and beat Ala- Isaiah Spiller, whose 2,993 career rushing yards rank seventh
bama!) despite an early injury to quarterback Haynes King, in Texas A&M history, and Jalen Wydermyer, whose 16 career
and the No. 1 recruiting class in 2022. The pessimists can note receiving touchdowns are the most by a tight end in school
that Jimbo Fisher has yet to coach a truly great offense here history—but it has the depth to reload easily. Devon Achane
and that, for all the hype his tenure has earned, his teams have outrushed most of the SEC’s starting rushers as a backup, and
typically landed in 8-5 territory. On paper, this No. 9 rank- Amari Daniels looks poised to follow in his footsteps as a
ing could be ludicrously high or disrespectfully low. In any stunningly good No. 2 back. Receiver should be fine, although
case, Texas A&M will probably be a cut above the rest of the the Aggies don’t yet have a player who’s stepped up as a true
SEC West, but it remains to be seen if the Aggies can combine leader at the position. Offensive line is probably the biggest
2020’s consistent performance against lesser opponents with concern outside of quarterback; three of five starters do return,
2021’s unexpected upset over the ultra-talented Crimson Tide. but first-round pick Kenyon Green is among the losses.
Quarterback is the most obvious question for the offense. The Aggies finished in the top five in points allowed per
King was expected to be at least reliable under center, but he game, and while the unit wasn’t perfect, it certainly looked
was injured and gave way to Zach Calzada early in the sea- like a championship defense at times. Outside of Alabama, no
son after a quietly worrying three-interception performance opponent scored 30 or more points on Texas A&M, and only
against Kent State. While the backup’s performance against Al- three (Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and LSU) managed more
abama—285 yards on 31 attempts, three touchdowns, and only than 20. The whole group was fantastic, with the clear leader
one interception—captured the hearts of the nation, his overall a dominant defensive line led by DeMarvin Leal (58 tackles,
numbers were far less laudable. Calzada averaged just 6.7 yards 8.5 sacks). Between its top four players, the line put up 164
per attempt, and although his touchdown-to-interception ratio total tackles and a whopping 34.5 tackles for loss ... but it also
(17-to-9) was solid, he had a tendency to give the ball away at loses all of that production going into 2022, which could lead
the worst possible moment. He’s now competing for the starting to a rough start as the Aggies try to figure out what they have
job at Auburn, which is a match made in heaven, so the compe- at the position. On the upside, the linebacker corps should be
tition here is between King and LSU transfer Max Johnson (7.5 solid (though it does lose Aaron Hansford’s two-way produc-
yards per attempt, 25 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). The winner tion), and the secondary in particular should be a strength. The
of that competition will almost certainly be an upgrade, but for goal should just be to hold serve and let the offense catch up,
the Aggies to hang with Alabama and Georgia, they’re going to but that might be easier said than done.
 NCAA TOP 50 417

No. 10 Utah Utes

Believe it or not, Utah’s true freshman class this year was terback since Tyler Huntley manned the position, and he was
born after coach Kyle Whittingham was hired. The Utes have efficient both through the air (7.8 yards per pass) and on the
been through several cycles of rebuilding and contention ground (6.7 yards per carry). Fellow Pac-12 first-teamer Ta-
since then: the 2004 team that Whittingham coached in the vion Thomas rushed for 1,108 yards, and his 21 total touch-
Fiesta Bowl finished 12-0 and fourth nationally, and he led downs are second-most among all returning skill players in
them through a multi-year relapse before captaining a historic the Power 5 after Deuce Vaughn. While T.J. Pledger, whose
13-0 team in 2008 that has a legitimate national championship 6.7 yards per carry led the conference, is graduating, Micah
claim. Utah floundered in its early Pac-12 days, finishing 5-7 Bernard (523 rushing yards, 251 receiving yards) looks ca-
in 2012 and 2013, the program’s only losing seasons under pable of filling his shoes. The receiving corps loses Britain
Whittingham—but he bounced back and took Utah to a 10-3 Covey, but his loss will be more keenly felt on returns than in
season two years later. Most recently, the Utes went 11-3 in the passing game. Covey was just one of six players to post
2019 and 10-4 in 2021, finished No. 16 and No. 12 respec- more than 200 receiving yards for Utah (including Bernard),
tively and winning their first Pac-12 title last year. and the other five all return, led by tight ends Brandon Kuithe
It seems inevitable that Utah will rank in the AP poll’s top (611 yards) and Dalton Kincaid (510 yards).
10 this preseason for the first time in program history, as ex- There are a few things that could hold Utah back from mak-
cellent returns from a team that turned dominant down the ing a run at the CFP—quarterback regression, a faltering run
stretch make the Utes a legitimate championship contender. game, simply getting caught out by a lesser opponent—but the
There are plenty of places to trip up on this schedule, includ- most obvious is the linebacker production they must replace.
ing an opening game at Florida, a late-season visit to Oregon, Devin Lloyd ranked among the top two in the Pac-12 in solo
and several other conference opponents that could be punchy; tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions, and pick-sixes,
on paper, though, you wouldn’t be crazy to call this team ca- and Nephi Sewell (89 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) and line-
pable of battling the likes of Alabama and Ohio State (who man Mika Tafua (48 tackles, 13 tackles for loss) are also de-
they took down to the wire in their first-ever Rose Bowl) with parting. The defense does bring back some great pieces; Clark
a title on the line. Phillips III led the Pac-12 in passes broken up, while Cole
Cameron Rising’s emergence—from backup to all-con- Bishop’s nine tackles for loss and five pass breakups marked a
ference quarterback on the title-winning team in his redshirt line that no freshman had put up since 2018. This unit should
sophomore season—was one of the most underrated stories still be good at worst, but with such high expectations and an
of 2021. With 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions, he unforgiving early schedule, there’s not much room for error as
was a steadying force for a team that had lacked one at quar- Utah looks to break through its ceiling again.
418 NCAA TOP 50

No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State kicked the 2021 season off with a bang; On Oc- opponents to -0.137 EPA/rush, 12th in the nation, and the
tober 9, the Nittany Lions sat undefeated at 5-0 and held a pass defense held opponents to -0.136, 21st. After defen-
17-3 lead at No. 3 Iowa. Then, quarterback Sean Clifford took sive coordinator Brent Pry left to take the Virginia Tech
a big hit and was knocked out of the game. Penn State saw that job, Penn State brought in former Miami Hurricanes coach
14-point lead turn into a 3-point deficit and the Nittany Lions’ Manny Diaz. The Nittany Lions lose experience and quality
first loss in 10 games. That loss turned into a 2-6 skid to end at key positions: safety Jaquan Brisker (48th to the Bears),
the season, driven by issues with defensive consistency and is- linebacker Brandon Smith (120th to the Panthers), and cor-
sues with Clifford’s health, and the Nittany Lions sit at the on- nerback Tariq Castro-Fields (221st to the 49ers). This fall,
set of 2022 looking to take a step forward and string together the defensive line will rest on the shoulders of two players
a season of consistent play and contend for the Big Ten West. returning from injury: end Adisa Issaac, who missed all of
Clifford will return, healthy, and the offense should present 2021, and tackle PJ Mustipher, who was injured down the
a formidable attack in offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich’s stretch. Maryland transfer Demeioun Robinson (13 pres-
second year. They return 71% of production (43rd nationally) sures, 2 sacks, and 14 tackles in 2021), will contend for the
from an offense that averaged 0.082 EPA/play (36th). Neither other end position. The Nittany Lions will have to replace
of those figures account for Clifford’s injury in 2021, though, both linebackers, but Jonathan Sutherland is moving from
and despite being healthy in 2022, he’ll be without his top safety and should shore up one spot. At cornerback, Kalen
target Jahan Dotson (30.9% of total targets, 13.0 yards per King, a four-star recruit who enrolled early in 2021 will look
reception, and 12 touchdowns), who was drafted 16th overall to fill in for Castro-Fields; King allowed a 30% completion
by Washington. Parker Washington, who accounted for 19.4% rate on 20 targets last season.
of total targets and four touchdowns, was sidelined during the Penn State’s schedule is doing them no favors, especially in
spring but will be featured heavily in the pass game. The of- the early going. A trip to West Lafayette to play Purdue will
fensive line returns two starters and two solid rotation players, be a baptism by fire for Penn State’s passing offense, and in
and Sal Wormley will return to the lineup after missing 2021 Week 3, they’ll go to Auburn on the return leg of a home-and-
with injury. Running behind them will be last season’s leading home. Down the stretch, Penn State will have to navigate a
rusher Keyvone Lee (24% of team attempts, 3 touchdowns, brutal stretch post-bye: at Michigan, then hosting Minnesota
and 4.9 yards per attempt). Look for tight end Brenton Strange and Ohio State. Given how tough the Big Ten East is, Penn
to play a strong secondary role in the passing game as well (3 State could take a meaningful step forward but still be behind
touchdowns, 11.3 yards per reception). in the win column this fall. With a healthy Clifford, a new look
On the defensive side of the ball, the Nittany Lions pre- on defense, and some experience at key positions, the Nittany
sented a balanced attack: Penn State’s rush defense held Lions will shoot to do more than just play spoiler this fall.
 NCAA TOP 50 419

No. 12 Cincinnati Bearcats

How does a team follow up a dream season, winning a con- one option. The linebacker corps gets a shot in the arm with
ference championship, beating Notre Dame in South Bend, transfer Ivan Pace Jr., who recorded 85 tackles, starting all 13
and becoming the first Group of 5 team invited to the College games for Miami (Ohio).
Football Playoff? If you’re Cincinnati, you get back to work. The offense will have to replace the productive trio of
The Bearcats are on pace for a top-25 recruiting class and are quarterback Desmond Ridder, running back Jerome Ford,
determined to show the world that 2021 was not a fluke or a and Pierce. Ford and Pierece accounted for a combined 40%
peak but a new normal. Cincinnati won the American Athletic of team touches, and Ridder averaged 29 dropbacks per
Conference convincingly, averaging 0.190 EPA/play (ninth in game for the Bearcats. Luke Fickell’s team will take a quar-
the nation) and holding opponents to -0.175 (eighth nation- terback battle into the fall, as transfer Ben Bryant (68.4%
ally) and beating 10 of 12 regular season opponents by double completion, 7.6 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns starting
digits. Nine Cincinnati starters were drafted in 2022, most no- 14 games for Eastern Michigan) comes in to compete with
tably cornerback Sauce Gardner (fourth overall to New York) four-star recruit Evan Prater. Quarterbacks coach Gino Gui-
and wide receiver Alex Pierce (53rd to the Colts). dugli takes over the offense as coordinator, and he will at-
Nine of 11 defensive starters received all-conference tempt to recreate Cincinnati’s 2021 success with either Bry-
awards, including the Thorpe Winner Coby Bryant (109th to ant or Prater and an offensive line that returns five starters.
the Jets). On the defensive side, in all, Cincinnati returns just In the run game, LSU transfer Corey Kiner slots in as the
51% of production, 108th nationally. With so much turnover workhorse, and returning tight end Leonard Taylor (11.8%
in the defensive secondary, the strongest unit for Cincinna- of targets, 9.7 yards per reception) and receivers Michael
ti could be its defensive line. They lose Myjai Sanders and Scott and Tre Tucker (23% of targets and seven touchdowns)
his team-leading 62 pressures (100th to the Cardinals) to the will round out the passing attack.
NFL, but there are experienced options in Jowon Briggs, Ma- Cincinnati probably won’t have the decisive head-to-head
lik Vann, and Jabari Taylor (a combined 71 pressures and 5 matchup with their competition for the final Playoff spot,
sacks), not to mention four-star Ohio State transfer Noah Pot- should they repeat their undefeated season in 2021, and it’s
ter. With a wealth of options, this unit could play fresh legs, unlikely the chaos of the season breaks in such a way that a
substituting often, and cause major disruption for opposing Group of 5 team who goes undefeated could make the Play-
quarterbacks. The biggest question will be how to replace the off. Nevertheless, Cincinnati’s 2022 is not about whether the
Gardner-Bryant duo at cornerback. Senion Arquon Bush al- selection committee lets them participate in the postseason
lowed a 63.5% completion rate on 35 targets last year, with 3 invitational, but rather proof of concept that Luke Fickell and
interceptions, and he should matchup with opponents’ number the Bearcats are a program here for the long run.
420 NCAA TOP 50

No. 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Oklahoma State Cowboys were quite literally an inch rate, but when he was pressured, he averaged 31.2%. Keeping
away from a Big 12 Championship in 2022. Despite being Sanders protected will be key to running play-action and find-
down a couple of lineman and leading rusher Jalen Warren, ing time to get the ball downfield.
The Cowboys had seven chances to score and win the Big 12 On defense, coordinator Jim Knowles led one of the stron-
Championship Game, coming down to a final play where run- gest units in the team in 2021; 14.3% of dropbacks against
ning back Dezmon Jackson stretched the ball just short of the Oklahoma State ended in a sack or a scramble, and the Cow-
goal line, cementing the team’s second loss. Despite the sting boys ranked fourth in EPA/pass allowed. Knowles left for
of that loss, Oklahoma State still can hold its head high about the Ohio State job, and in comes Auburn DC Derek Mason.
a season in which they made their conference championship Mason has suggested he will play Knowles’s defense and
game, beat their in-state rivals, and won a New Year’s Six build off existing systems, and so while there should be drop-
bowl against Notre Dame. Mike Gundy’s team hadn’t won 10 off, it may not be as much as the fact of coordinator transfer
or more games in a season since 2017, and the season total of would suggest. The Cowboys lose a team leader in Malcom
12 wins matches their all-time high under Gundy (2011). Rodriguez (188th to the Lions). Rodriguez was one of five
On offense, the Cowboys return quarterback Spencer Sand- Cowboys defenders to record at least 20 pressures and led
ers, but will have to replace 60% of rushing attempts with the team in tackles with 72. The good news for Derek Mason
the loss of Jaylen Warren (UDFA to Pittsburgh) and 28.9% and Oklahoma state is that they return the other four, in ad-
of targets with the loss of receiver Tay Martin (UDFA to San dition to getting edge rusher Trace Ford back from injury.
Francisco). Running back Dom Richardson will take over Brock Martin, Collin Oliver, Tyler Lacy, and Devin Harper
the load at running back, a young but physical runner who combined for 147 pressures last season, and given Derek
will slot nicely in Mike Gundy’s offense. At wide receiver, Mason’s history with the 2-4-5 defense, the Oklahoma pass
the Cowboys have options: the slippery Brennan Pressely re- rush will be an elite unit, which should take some pressure
turns (11.8 yards per reception, 5 touchdowns, 6.2 yards after off the heavy turnover in the secondary. Oklahoma State has
completion), and then Jaden Bray and Braylen Johnson will some key pieces in line to repeat their Big 12 Champion-
slot in at receiver. Both are untested, but both have huge ex- ship appearance from last year, but they’ll have to navigate
plosive potential. The offensive line loses a couple of starters, a tougher schedule: how they fare in games at Kansas State,
but the emergence of tackle Caleb Etienne and guard Hunter Baylor, and Oklahoma will decide their season. Gundy has
Woodard should anchor the left side of what could be an un- strung together quality seasons before in the past—with a re-
derrated unit. Protection will be key for Oklahoma State: in a turning quarterback and an elite defensive line, he just might
clean pocket in 2021, Sanders averaged a 68.2% completion do it again in 2022.
 NCAA TOP 50 421

No. 14 Auburn Tigers

It’s hard to talk about the state of Auburn football without for the defensive unit.
diving deep into the chaotic world of SEC drama, but for the Quarterback Bo Nix transferred after missing the last few
purposes of understanding their on-field product this fall, we games with an ankle injury, and Texas A&M transfer Zach
will eschew such noise. The Tigers began 2021 6-2 with wins Calzada came in to take that job. Calzada averaged 55.9%
at LSU, at Arkansas, and vs Ole Miss, a solid resume. The completion in 2021 but came on stronger towards the end of
wheels quickly came off—Auburn lost five straight to finish the season. For an Auburn offense that ranked 34th in EPA/
6-7, including a blown 28-10 lead vs Mississippi State and a pass, he could be the shot of consistency needed to develop
disappointing 13-17 Birmingham Bowl loss to Houston. After that unit. Meanwhile, Auburn’s rushing unit carried the team
some aforementioned offseason drama regarding program di- last year (0.241 EPA/rush, third in the nation), and running
rection, Auburn has decided to retain their head coach Bryan back Tank Bigsby returns to continue that success and provide
Harsin and roll into 2022, albeit with some very different fac- some space for Calzada to develop. Bigsby was a 1000-yard
es. Defensive coordinator Derek Mason left for the Oklahoma rusher in 2021, and he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and scored
State job, and they’ll promote long-time Harsin assistant Jeff 10 touchdowns on the ground last season. Behind Auburn’s of-
Schmedding into the role. fensive line, Bigsby posted five games of 100+ yards, three of
The defense returns 65% of production, and the biggest them against Power 5 competition. Bigsby’s run game should
hole to fill will be at cornerback. Roger McCreary (35th to the command the respect of opponents as he will run behind
Titans) anchored a unit that rated 58th in EPA/pass (-0.043). five upperclassmen on the offensive line. Auburn’s schedule
They’ll look to improve that defense with a bit of consistency does them no favors this season; they’ll have the undesirable
in the second half of games: Auburn had a lead in the fourth privilege of playing at Alabama and at Georgia, in addition to
quarter of its final four games, all losses, and the Tigers were hosting Penn State in the non-conference slate. Auburn will
outscored 22-57 in the second half of those four games. A cou- look to stabilize the program after a hectic offseason, but the
ple of transfers (DL Jayson Jones from Oregon, safety Craig strength of schedule and resulting record may cause more tur-
McDonald from Iowa State) will provide much needed depth moil, even if the Tigers improve on both sides of the ball.
422 NCAA TOP 50

No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers

Few offenses were as exciting as Josh Heupel’s Volun- have been a weapon for the Volunteers as well; the quarter-
teers in 2021. Ranking 15th in opponent-adjusted EPA/play back rushed 73 times for almost 800 yards and 5 touchdowns.
(0.162), the Volunteers scored 30+ points in 9 of 13 games Perhaps the most promising development for the Volunteers is
and 45+ in 7 of 13 games. Three of the Volunteers six losses what they’ll return along the offensive line: four of five start-
came by just one score, and a win at then No. 18 Kentucky ers from a unit that kept Hooker clean on 68.9% of dropbacks.
demonstrated proof of concept for Heupel’s new-look, aggres- On defense, the Volunteers struggled against the rush, al-
sive Vols. The team went 1-4 against ranked teams in the regu- lowing 0.009 EPA/rush (72nd in the country) and 200 or more
lar season, with the only other regular season loss coming to rushing yards in five of eight games in SEC play. The unit
Pitt, who finished in the top 15. Tennessee’s 2021 quarterback returns 70% of production from last year, 42nd overall. Se-
Herndon Hooker threw for 200 or more yards in 10 games this nior linebacker Jeremy Banks looks to bolster the defense and
season, completing 68.1% of passes for 9.7 yards per attempt build on his team-leading 86 tackles last fall, joined by edge
and a 31-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hooker’s 2021 rushers Byron Young and Tyler Baron, a pair of upperclass-
was a substantial improvement on his 2020 season at Virginia men who combined for 41 tackles, 64 pressures, and 13 sacks
Tech: he threw almost three more touchdowns on just over in 2021. The passing game ranked 32nd in efficiency, allowing
twice as many attempts from 2020 to 2021. Hooker’s favor- -0.094 EPA/pass. Senior cornerback Warren Burrell allowed
ite target, Cedric Tillman, returns. He accounted for 23.8% a 66.0% completion rate and 15.6 yards per reception as the
of team targets and 1,081 yards in 2021. Transfer Bru Mc- second-most targeted player in the Volunteers’ secondary. At
Coy, a five-star recruit with a tumultuous recruitment and col- the other corner position, junior Kamal Hadden has some ex-
lege journey, has transferred into the program and should he perience, targeted 24 times, but will step into the secondary as
find his way to the field, would give the Volunteers a strong a full-time player in that secondary. The reality of playing in
weapon to fill in for Velus Jones Jr. (13.0 yards per reception, the SEC, and trips to LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina paint
7 touchdowns, drafted 71st overall to the Bears). In the rush- improvement for the Vols in an interesting light. It could very
ing game, Jabari Small (30.2% of attempts, 5.6 yards per at- well be the case that this year’s team is substantially improved
tempt, 9 touchdowns) will lead the charge, and Hooker’s legs over last year, but still looking at a ceiling of single-digit wins.
 NCAA TOP 50 423

No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels

Early this offseason, Lane Kiffin declared himself the “Por- in rising juniors Zach Evans (1269 career yards at TCU) and
tal King” after landing Jaxson Dart and Michael Trigg from Ulysses Bentley IV (1853 career yards at SMU).
USC. As usual for Kiffin, beneath the fun and games there Losses in the receiving corps included Dontario Drummond
was a grain of truth to that claim—and an understanding that (1028 yards) and Braylon Sanders (549 yards), and while Ole
every success is also an opportunity to market Ole Miss to re- Miss brought in five transfers at tight end and receiver, there’s
cruits and other potential transfers. It’s no surprise that numer- no obvious top target. Trigg and Auburn transfer J.J. Pueges
ous players have followed Dart and Trigg to Oxford; outside were the highest-rated recruits...but they didn’t star at their
of USC itself, no team has had a more complete turnaround previous schools. Jaylon Robinson has the most experience...
through this offseason than the Rebels. A setback from last but his 2021 season at UCF was interrupted by injuries. Ma-
season’s Sugar Bowl appearance is still to be expected, but lik Heath was among Mississippi State’s more efficient pass-
Kiffin has gone all-out over the last few months to keep the catchers...but he was buried below five other receivers on their
hangover from being as bad as it’s been at previous stops like depth chart last year. Jordan Watkins was an excellent WR2
USC (where his third team dropped from 10-2 to 7-6) and at Louisville...but he’s only handled that volume for one sea-
FAU (where his second team dropped from 11-3 to 5-7). How son. It’s a strong corps to complement top returner Jonathan
well it’ll work remains to be seen, but there’s certainly more Mingo (346 yards), but narrowing down the best options will
talent on this roster than when the Rebels first pieced together take time.
their 2022 depth chart, and that’s something to be proud of— The defense doesn’t have nearly as difficult an act to fol-
and to tell the class of 2023 about. low, and it should be able to take a step up if things click well.
Dart, who averaged 7.2 yards per attempt with nine touch- The losses of lineman Sam Williams (57 tackles, 15 tackles
downs and five interceptions as a freshman, will likely be a for loss) and linebacker Chance Campbell (109 tackles, 12.5
downgrade from Matt Corral, whose 8.7 yards per attempt and tackles for loss) do hurt. The Rebels compensated for those
20-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio earned him a top-10 losses by adding an impact transfer at both positions: Jared
finish in the Heisman vote. Nevertheless, his experience and Ivey (32 tackles, 6 tackles for loss at Georgia Tech) on the line
proven baseline are valuable, considering Luke Altmyer (15- and Troy Brown (65 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 6 pass break-
for-28 with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Sugar ups at Central Michigan) in the backfield. The secondary will
Bowl) was initially the projected starter. The rushing corps is likely be the biggest strength, as Miles Battle, AJ Finley, and
the biggest overhaul on the offense, with Jerrion Early, Snoop Otis Reese combined for 203 tackles and 14 pass breakups
Conner, Henry Parrish Jr., and Corral—who together account- last year; all three return, and their presence will be key to
ed for 2582 yards on the ground last year—all departing. Kif- defensive improvement that could keep Ole Miss near the top
fin turned to the portal again to replenish the unit, bringing of the SEC.
424 NCAA TOP 50

No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes

You can’t win a division if your quarterbacks combine rushed for 220 yards in the last four games of the season,
for a 12:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio, obviously. That seems the obvious candidate to step up, and the depth behind
is, unless that division is the Big Ten West, where Iowa’s him should be solid. The receiving corps will be a strength
top competitors put up lines of 12:9 (Minnesota), 11:13 with tight end Sam LaPorta (670 yards) leading the way and
(Wisconsin), and...well, 35:12 (Purdue, which just had to Keagan Johnson, a true freshman last year, emerging as a go-
be different). The Hawkeyes still needed their rivals to fall to WR1. The real question is the offensive line, which was
over themselves, allowing them to scrape out a one-game surprisingly mediocre despite the presence of first-round pick
division-winning margin at season’s end, but they earned a Tyler Linderbaum at center: the Hawkeyes ranked 112th in
10-4 record fair and square, even if it wasn’t pretty. Only one line yards per carry and 82nd in sack rate allowed.
team scored more than 27 points against Iowa (CFP-bound The defense was excellent at all levels last year, and with
Michigan), and the Hawkeyes pieced together seven wins by three returning starters on the line and in the linebacker corps,
ten points or less for their best regular season since 2015. It the front seven should be even better this year. Jack Camp-
could be argued that Iowa has pretty firmly run into its ceil- bell’s 140 tackles and six pass breakups at linebacker made
ing unless it can make some major offensive improvements, him one of the best defensive players in football, and Seth
but ten wins and a division title is still a pretty good peak, all Benson (105 tackles, three breakups) was no slouch either.
things considered. With the exception of lineman Zach Vanvalkenburg (58 tack-
On the other hand, it’s clear that ceiling can rise with merely les, 15 tackles for loss), there aren’t any major losses up front.
competent offensive play, and that clearly starts at quarter- The biggest defensive concern is the secondary—not just
back. Spencer Petras showed no progression from his first because it loses key players like Dane Belton (46 tackles, 5
season as a starter—he went from 6.4 yards per attempt to 6.5, interceptions) and Matt Hankins (44 tackles, 3 interceptions),
from 9 touchdowns to 10, and from 5 interceptions to 9—and but also because Iowa produced interceptions at an unsustain-
with 5.7 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, able rate. 34% of the Hawkeyes’ pass breakups were picked
Alex Padilla was no better in relief. The same group will man off, which was critical in a number of those close wins; that
the position in 2022, and it’s probably not much comfort to conversion rate was between 20% and 30% in six of their
Iowa fans that Brian Ferentz will be coaching quarterbacks in seven previous seasons. Iowa’s secondary is going to be less
addition to coordinating the offense as a whole. effective in 2022, judging by both regression to the mean and
The Hawkeyes should at least be fine when it comes to their lack of returning production; how much worse it is will dictate
core offensive competency, the run game—even with 1151- whether this defense can still play at an elite level and lead
yard rusher Tyler Goodson going pro. Gavin Williams, who another successful season.
 NCAA TOP 50 425

No. 18 Kentucky Wildcats

There are a number of coaches who hold generally simi- lowing an arrest for driving under the influence, but the rush-
lar roles to Mark Stoops—winning eight to ten games a year, ing attack should still be good if Kavosiey Smoke (415 yards,
typically not reaching elite performance but always doing 5.1 yards per carry) leads the way instead. The receiving corps
well. For one reason or another, though, his job at Kentucky is in flux as Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali, who put up
is often called one of the easiest in FBS, much more so that 1334 and 601 yards through the air last year, both depart,
Mike Gundy’s at Oklahoma State, Kirk Ferentz’s at Iowa, or while Tayvion Robinson (1782 total yards over three seasons
Kyle Whittingham’s at Utah. None of those roles are as cushy at Virginia Tech) arrives through the portal.
as they might look from a distance, but Stoops’ achievements The defensive line is in a state of flux, as Josh Paschal (52
in particular are often written off, perhaps because he hasn’t tackles, 15 tackles for loss) and other stars from last year give
yet had a CFP-contender year like Gundy, Ferentz, and Whit- way to talented-but-inexperienced recruits from the class of
tingham. Lest we forget, the Wildcats have as many ten-win 2020. The unit has four blue chips to lead the way, but none
seasons in the last four years as they did in over a century of had more than 17 tackles last year. The rest of the defense
previous play. Stoops may not have reached the pinnacle yet, has much more experience—particularly at linebacker, where
but what he’s done at Kentucky is already remarkable. Jacquez Jones and DeAndre Square both made over 80 tack-
Will Levis, who averaged eight yards per attempt with 24 les in 2021, while JJ Weaver’s 10.5 tackles for loss and two
touchdowns and 13 interceptions, was key to last year’s 10-3 interceptions both lead Kentucky’s defensive returns. Losing
record—both the wins and the losses. His profile brings to Yusuf Corker and Quandre Mosely, first and tied for second
mind a pre-2021 Matt Corral, another quarterback whose ag- on the team in pass breakups last year, will set the secondary
gressive passing led to some rough interceptions in his early back, but they do return solid pieces in Carrington Valentine
days. If Levis can make the kind of jump Corral did and turn (61 tackles, 5 breakups) and Tyrell Ajian (46 tackles, 4 break-
that speed into an advantage, it could spell a similar breakout ups). On the whole, the defense should be solid in spite of the
season. Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s status for 2022 is unknown fol- starters it needs to replace, but there could be growing pains.

No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs

426 NCAA TOP 50

After a rough transition year in 2020, when Mississippi year, most of the other skill pieces are back. Jaden Walley and
State averaged just 21.4 points per game and saw Will Rogers Austin Williams, who both totaled over 600 yards last year,
and KJ Costello combine for more interceptions than touch- will be the top targets, but keep an eye out for running backs
downs, Mike Leach’s air raid offense was implemented in full Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson, each of whom put up
force last year. Rogers took full command of the offense, and over 400 yards rushing and receiving in 2021. The Bulldogs
all he did was complete 505 passes to land second on the all- run less than any other team in FBS, but that’s largely because
time list—right between Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell and nearly half of Marks’ and Johnson’s plays were short passes;
Washington State’s Anthony Gordon, who led two of Leach’s they’re understated keys to Mississippi State’s success and
best teams. These Bulldogs weren’t quite as good as those should feature prominently again.
Raiders and Cougars, going a mere 7-6 and bookending the You’d be forgiven for assuming Leach is rolling with a
season with upset losses to Memphis and Texas Tech. Nev- top-notch offense and letting the defense straggle behind,
ertheless, 2021 represented a big step up from Leach’s first but this unit was pretty solid last year as well. Cameron
season, and peaks like a 26-22 win over Texas A&M and a Young, Randy Charlton, and Nathan Pickering combined for
25-point comeback to beat Auburn are encouraging signs for 115 tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss at the line. Jett John-
where the program is headed. son and Nathaniel Watson both posted over 80 tackles and
The SEC has one of the best returning lineups ever seen at six tackles for loss (with Johnson breaking up three passes)
quarterback: Hendon Hooker, Stetson Bennett, Bryce Young, in the linebacker corps. Emmanuel Forbes and Jalen Green
and KJ Jefferson were the conference’s top four passers in ad- led the way for the secondary, both breaking up four passes
justed yards per attempt last season, and all four are back. That and combining for five interceptions. All of those starters
remarkable group can make it easy to miss Rogers, whose rate return, and the only major losses are at defensive back—
stats are relatively unimpressive due to his ludicrously high Martin Emerson and Fred Peters totaled 128 tackles and five
volume, but he’s a genuine star as well—he completed 73.9% interceptions last year, and both are now gone. It’s easy to
of his passes last year, fifth in NCAA history, and threw four like the proven talent the Bulldogs have here, and if they can
times as many touchdowns (36) as interceptions (9). make a few more stops, it’s not hard to see Mississippi State
While the offense does lose Makai Polk, whose 105 recep- turning around some of their close losses and storming to the
tions and 1046 receiving yards both set school records last forefront of a tough SEC West.

No. 20 Baylor Bears

In 2020, en route to a 2-7 record and second-to-last finish tion being named the conference’s special teams player of the
in the Big 12, Baylor had one of the worst rushing attacks in year). Meanwhile, head coach Dave Aranda shifted Abram
the Power 5. Nobody managed 200 yards on the ground for Smith from linebacker back to running back, where he tore
the Bears, and the four players with the most carries (includ- the Big 12 to shreds with a school-record 1,601-yard season.
ing quarterback Charlie Brewer) combined for a dreadful 2.2 The run game is hardly the only thing that looked completely
yards per attempt. Beyond redshirt freshman Craig Williams, different in 2021: Charlie Brewer’s 6.1 yards per pass attempt
who picked up a team-leading 197 yards with 7.6 yards per gave way to a combined 7.7 by Gerry Bohanon and Blake
carry, there wasn’t much to feel good about. Shapen, Tyquan Thornton returned from injury and posted a
That group underwent a dramatic transformation in 2021, 948-yard season at receiver, and the defense surged from 63rd
however. Coming off the worst season of his career, Trestan to 10th in points allowed per game. It all came together to pro-
Ebner promptly had his best, rushing for a career-high 799 duce an excellent team that turned dominant down the stretch,
yards and jumping from 2.1 yards per carry to 5.4 (not to men- dispatching three top-10 teams in a five-game winning streak
 NCAA TOP 50 427

to end the season. four starters return from an offensive line that defined much of
How sustainable that improvement is remains to be seen, Baylor’s success last season.
but the Bears obviously aren’t afraid to experiment, and their Jaxon Player is easily the Bears’ biggest impact transfer,
biggest offseason story reinforces that point. Bohanon took with 50 tackles and 15 tackles for loss at Tulsa last season.
the bulk of the passes last year and had a great season, averag- The line saw a lot of rotation last year, and nobody emerged
ing 8.0 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and 7 intercep- as an everyday starter, though that wasn’t necessarily a bad
tions—but Shapen, who stepped in at the end of 2021 and led thing; still, having a core piece to build around in Player is a
the win over Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title, was declared definite positive. At linebacker, the Bears do lose Terrel Ber-
the starter after impressing in spring ball. It’s a particularly big nard (103 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 4 pass breakups last
risk because the skill corps is once again facing an overhaul: year), but they bring back some solid starting options, chief
Ebner, Smith, and Thornton all went pro, and R.J. Sneed (573 among them Dillon Doyle (89 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 2
receiving yards) transferred to Colorado. Williams should be breakups). LSU transfer Josh White, a former four-star, will
healthy at running back, and Taye McWilliams stood out with be in the mix as well. The star position, Baylor’s hybrid line-
181 yards on 17 carries last year, but there’s naturally some backer/defensive back role, is the most important opening on
uncertainty at the position. Finding targets for Shapen is the defense, both schematically and because Jalen Pitre (75 tack-
biggest concern; the Bears are looking to players like tight les, 18.5 tackles for loss, 7 breakups) leaves huge shoes to
end Ben Sims (361 yards last year), Monaray Baldwin (who fill. Early indications are that Al Walcott (30 tackles, 3 inter-
accumulated most of his 94 yards from scrimmage on one run ceptions) will shift to star, which would put Lorando Johnson
in the Sugar Bowl), and Gavin Holmes (who has 410 career (Pitre’s backup last year) at corner and Christian Morgan (30
yards but didn’t play last year) to lead the way. On the upside, tackles, 6 breakups) at safety.

No. 21 North Carolina State Wolfpack

Few teams are receiving as much preseason hype as North and Davin Vann combined for 67 pressures, 13 sacks, and 44
Carolina State. After a 9-3 season in which they beat confer- tackles. There’s not a weak link on this defense, and they have
ence leaders Clemson for the first time since 2011, the Wolf- an encouraging amount of depth behind a solid 11 starters.
pack return 82% of production overall (eighth in the nation), The offense will feature quarterback Devin Leary in his
and 87% of a defense that ranked 10th in EPA/play in 2021. fourth year of action. Leary enters the season ranked seventh
Sixteen players registered at least 10 tackles for the Wolfpack in school history with 5,542 total passing yards. Leary com-
in 2021, and 14 of those will return for 2022. Drake Thomas, a pleted 65.6% of passes, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. In all,
linebacker who led the team with 65 total tackles and notched Leary totaled 3,435 passing yards, ranking 16th among FBS
4 pass breakups, will pair with Isaiah Moore and Devon Betty quarterbacks. Around Leary, the offense loses a couple key
to round out one of the most experienced and deep linebacker pieces. Tackle Ikem Ekwonu went sixth overall to the Caro-
corps in the country. In the secondary, Tanner Ingle stifled lina Panthers; he allowed only 3 sacks on 500 pass-blocking
the run game, contributing 56 tackles and 32 stops. The other snaps in 2021. Leading receiver Emeka Emezie is pursuing
safety, Jakeen Harris, allowed a 56.5% completion rate and 2 NFL opportunities after an 800-yard season; he averaged 13.4
touchdowns on 23 targets. With such a solid safety tandem, yards per reception and accounted for 21.6% of team targets.
cornerbacks Tyler Baker-Williams and Shyheim Battle will Leading running back Zonovan Knight signed with the New
frustrate opponents again this season. The duo allowed just 37 York Jets; he was responsible for 42.0% of N.C. State’s rush-
receptions, under 500 yards, and only 4 touchdowns last sea- ing attempts in 2021 and 44.7% of total rushing yards. But
son. Along the defensive line, the edge duo of Daniel Joseph there are worse recipes for a team to take a leap into national
428 NCAA TOP 50

contention than returning most of an elite defense, and experi- race, N.C. State hosts Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, be-
enced offensive line, and a steady veteran quarterback. fore finishing with two tough road games at Louisville and at
The Wolfpack have a schedule that should allow a running North Carolina. If things go right for N.C. State, they’ll cruise
start: before traveling to Clemson on October 1, they’ll play into that Louisville game ranked in the top 10 and with the
FCS Charleston Southern and three teams who finished the power to play themselves into the ACC Championship, and
regular season at or below .500 last fall. In terms of the ACC maybe even the Playoff.

No. 22 Pittsburgh Panthers

In 2021, Kenny Pickett set a career high in completion rate, only obstacle. Addison transferred to USC, leaving the receiv-
yards per attempt, and touchdowns. Pickett threw for 78.1% ing corps severely depleted. In addition, offensive coordinator
more yards (4,308) in 2021 than he did in 2020, in only 48% Mark Whipple took the same job at Nebraska, and passing
more dropbacks. That prolific offense led to Pickett’s third- game coordinator and receivers coach Brennan Marion left for
place finish in Heisman voting and being selected 20th overall Texas. Those four comprised most of the passing identity for
by the Steelers. Pickett’s favorite target was Biletnikoff win- the Panthers, and so this offseason will require some retooling.
ner Jordan Addison. Addison accounted for 28.3% of team First, Pittsburgh brings in former offensive coordinator Frank
targets, averaging 15.9 yards per reception and leading the na- Cignetti, who has spent time at both the college and profes-
tion with 17 touchdowns. Addison had eight 100-yard receiv- sional levels of football. He’ll design an offense around USC
ing games, including an absurd 202 yards and 4 touchdowns transfer Kedon Slovis, a three-year starter who averaged a
against Virginia. The explosive ceiling of the Panthers’ offense 68.3% completion rate and 7.9 yards per attempt in his time in
helped Pittsburgh record 11 wins, the program’s most since the Pac-12. Slovis will have a brand-new wide receiver room
the 1980s when Jackie Sherrill was head coach. The Panthers to work with, as all but one of the top five targets from 2021
struggled early, dropping a shootout to Western Michigan, and are off the roster; Jared Wayne, who received 12.6% of tar-
after beating Clemson for the first time in three tries, a bela- gets in 2021, averaging 14.0 yards per reception, will feature
bored Pittsburgh lost to a hot and rapidly improving Miami by prominently. The run game returns a three-headed monster:
one score. The offensive explosion defined Pitt’s season, but Vincent Davis, Israel Abanikanda, and Rodney Hammond Jr.,
the defense was vintage Pat Narduzzi. Despite a huge increase each had more than 100 attempts and more than 500 yards.
in pace of play and number of possessions a game, the Panther The Panther offense will look much different from last sea-
defense held on and kept the offense in games, holding six op- son—Pittsburgh passed 9.2% more than the average team in
ponents to 21 or fewer points. Pittsburgh ranked 13th in oppo- 2021, and with a new quarterback and wide receiver room,
nent-adjusted defense (-0.142 EPA/play), and ninth in rushing the run game may feature more prominently—but the defense
defense (-0.149 EPA/rush); Narduzzi’s team will return 66% should be the consistent standard that we’ve come to expect
of production on defense (57th in the nation), hallmarked by from the Panthers. They’ll have strong non-conference chal-
edge rusher Habakkuk Baldonado, who led the team with 48 lenges in games against rival West Virginia and hosting Ten-
pressures and 11 sacks, and senior cornerback Erick Hallett, nessee; to defend the ACC Championship, they’ll have to
who led the team with 64 tackles. travel to Miami, Virginia, and Louisville. Missing Clemson
The offensive side of the ball might not fare as well as the in the regular season helps, but the Panthers have their work
defense this season; Pickett’s departure to the NFL is not the cut out for them.
 NCAA TOP 50 429

No. 23 Michigan State Spartans

Mel Tucker’s job at Michigan State has been nothing short and short-precision passing game. Thorne loses passing target
of remarkable. In his second season, despite taking the job Jalen Nailor (18.3 yards per reception and six touchdowns), but
late in the cycle of a pandemic year, Tucker navigated the leading receiver Jayden Reed returns and is poised to have a
transfer portal as well as anyone and took the Spartans to big season for the Spartans. Reed averaged 17.8 yards per re-
an 11-2 season. On the back of Kenneth Walker’s 6.2 yards ception on 53 receptions, leading the team with a 13.6 average
per attempt and 1,600-yard season, the offense ranked 39th depth of target. Between Berger and Reed, Michigan State will
in EPA/play (0.073) and averaged almost four touchdowns a have a robust attack; if Illinois transfer tight end Daniel Barker
game. Michigan State rushed for 180 or more yards in eight can come in and extend the offense with another dimension, the
games, including their 37-33 come-from-behind win against Spartan offense could become truly dangerous.
rival Michigan. Replacing Walker, who was drafted 41st by On defense, Michigan State returns 79% of production,
the Seahawks, will be no small task; Jalen Berger, a four-star 20th most in the nation. Teams passed 11.5% more than aver-
recruit, transfers over from Wisconsin and will slot in as the age against Michigan State, reflective of their relative strug-
starter. The offensive line returns four experienced starters gles in the pass game, ranking 41st in EPA/pass (-0.071). The
and should provide a solid front for Berger to run behind. Spartans allowed seven teams to throw for 300 passing yards,
Quarterback Payton Thorne provided spurts of consistent as opponents chose to exploit the secondary rather than try
play, averaging 8.4 yards per completion and completing 60.6% to face up against Michigan’s front seven. They’ll return six
of passes all season. One gets the sense that a couple of close of seven top tacklers, and in defensive coordinator Scottie
games (Michigan and Indiana in particular) could’ve seen some Hazelton’s third year, should have the depth and experience
more separation in Michigan State’s favor with some growth to challenge more in the passing game. A three-game stretch
and experience at the quarterback position. Thorne returns, against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan will effectively
and the consistency along the offensive line should provide tell us if 2021 was a ceiling or a new standard for Mel Tuck-
him that necessary room to grow, especially in the medium- er’s Spartans.

No. 24 Florida Gators

430 NCAA TOP 50

Dan Mullen won 21 games and two New Year’s Six Bowls breed optimism about how Florida will feature the new starter.
in his first two seasons in Gainesville, a win percentage of Surrounding Richardson, the Gators will have to replace top
.808. In the next two years, the Gators had a win percentage rushers Dameon Pierce (107th to the Texans) and Malik Davis
of .560 and the perception of Mullen’s recruiting acumen (UDFA to the Cowboys), who combined to account for 53.5%
fell. In the fast-paced world of SEC recruiting, even a lateral of the team’s non-quarterback rushing attempts and 16 of 24
step can turn into a great slide backwards, and the Gators rushing touchdowns. There should be an open competition,
took a calculated risk in moving on from Mullen to try and but Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson, who came over with
give the program a jolt. Florida hired Billy Napier, a coach Napier, averaged 5.7 yards per attempt and led the Cajuns in
with experience under both Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban touchdowns with 11 and should feature prominently. In the
who has been biding his time turning Louisiana into one of passing game, Justin Shorter returns as the highest-targeted
the Sun Belt’s best teams while waiting for the right job. Na- receiver, averaging 13.1 yards per reception on 56 targets, but
pier lost 12 games in his four seasons at Louisiana, just two the receiver room looks to be the thinnest unit currently for the
in the last two seasons combined, as he has implemented a Gator offense. The Gators’ offensive line will benefit greatly
plan and vision to improve Louisiana’s culture, talent, facili- from the re-addition of Rob Sale to Florida’s staff. Sale was
ties, and the on-field result. The Gators are looking for him offensive line coach and offensive coordinator for Napier at
to do the same in the SEC East. Napier has been adamant Louisiana before joining the New York Giants.
that rebuilds take time, and there has certainly been some On defense, coordinator Patrick Toney will work to orches-
offseason hullabaloo from fans to suggest expectation man- trate Florida’s talent into an elite unit—the Gators ranked 32nd
agement will be the name of the game this fall, but Florida is in EPA/play defense last fall. Returning linebacker Brenton
an SEC team with an SEC roster, and if Napier can hold the Cox Jr. notched 32 pressures and 22 tackles and returning
reigns, they might be more problematic for opponents this safety Rashad Torrence led the team with 61 total tackles.
fall than expected. Florida’s pass defense outpaced its run defense, ranking 17th
Quarterback Anthony Richardson, a four-star recruit out of with -0.167 EPA/pass and 76th with 0.021 EPA/rush. Most
Gainesville, will take over the starting job in his junior year. notably, the Gators allowed 321 total rushing yards in a loss
In 2021, there was some talk that perhaps the Gators weren’t to LSU and 150 or more in three other games. They’ll look to
playing the right quarterback in Emory Jones (who trans- tighten up the systems and consistency on defense and give
ferred to Arizona State this spring); Richardson made one Napier’s team time to stabilize in its first year. Florida gets no
start, against Georgia, and performed about as well as any- time to ramp up this fall, though—they’ll play Utah and Ken-
one could expect someone playing in their first start against tucky to start the season, with a quick breath against South
Georgia’s 2021 defense would. Richardson is a dual threat Florida before traveling to Tennessee at the end of September.
quarterback, and Napier’s track record catering an offense to If the Gators don’t come out of camp sharp, they could be
quarterback Levi Lewis over the years at Louisiana should looking at a 1-3 hole to kick off Napier’s tenure.

No. 25 Texas Longhorns

Longhorn faithful knew there would be some bumps tran- cluded a blowout loss to Iowa State and an almost impossible-
sitioning to new head coach Steve Sarkesian; a 5-7 record to-swallow overtime loss at home to Kansas, a game in which
seems like as many bumps as one could possibly fit on a single the Longhorns defense allowed 420 total yards of offense to
road. At halftime against Oklahoma, the Longhorns were 4-1 a team that hadn’t won a conference game since October of
and leading their rivals 38-20. They went on to lose that game 2019. At that point, Steve Sarkesian shifted his focus to the
and the five after it, beginning a catastrophic spiral that in- future, announcing a complete overhaul of Texas’s roster.
 NCAA TOP 50 431

True to his word, Sarkesian has done just that, overhauling the second-most of any returning player in the nation. Even as
Texas roster with transfers and the fifth-highest rated recruit- teams keyed in on Worthy, he still found ways to separate and
ing class of this cycle. The Longhorns’ hope is that 2021 was get the ball, averaging 15.8 yards per completion. The Texas
a season of growing pains and that with new commitments passing game may even take a step forward, as they added
to facilities and NIL support and the leadership of Sarkesian, the architect of Pittsburgh’s 2021 passing outbreak, receivers
Texas will be able to rebound quickly. coach Brennan Marion, and they brought in transfers Isaiah
On offense, the Longhorns certainly have the weapons. Neyor from Wyoming and Jahleel Billingsly from Alabama.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers transfers in from Ohio State and Under Sarkesian’s oversight, Texas’s offense should display
should compete and provide a solid backup to Hudson Card, more consistency and explosive potential than last season,
if not take the job outright. Quinn Ewers is a five-star recruit, where they scored more than 24 points just once in their final
one of the highest-rated quarterbacks of all time, and he’ll six games.
have offensive weapons around him as potent as anyone in The defense is another issue entirely. Last season, Texas’s
the nation. Running back Bijan Robinson heads into the 2022 defense ranked 60th in efficiency, allowing an average of
season with Heisman buzz and NFL draft respect. Robinson -0.007 EPA/play, weighed down by the nation’s No. 71 pass-
averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and scored 11 touchdowns on ing defense (+0.009 EPA/play). The Longhorns allowed 200
the ground, and he caught 26 passes for an average of 11.3 passing yards to six opponents, and 300 passing yards to four.
yards per completion and four touchdowns. Robinson is an For Texas to move from erstwhile contender for the second
explosive workhorse, and he is complemented by backup spot in the conference championship game to “SEC-ready
Roschon Johnson, who would undoubtedly start at more than program”, they’ll have to figure out the defensive side of the
a few other Power 5 programs. Johnson averaged 5.9 yards ball and give their offense a chance to distance them from
per attempt and scored five touchdowns on the ground last opponents. The Longhorns will face the fire early in 2022,
season, and his role as a pass blocker and checkdown out- hosting Alabama in Week 2 and then following that up with
let in the passing game cannot be overstated. Speaking of the a visit from a UTSA team that won 12 games last fall. With
passing game, receiver Xavier Worthy is one of four returning the talent on this roster, especially with a five-star recruit at
Power 5 receivers to average an average depth of target of quarterback, and the blazing trail in recruiting the Longhorns
at least 13 yards and 6 or more yards after the catch. Worthy have been laying, the expectations for Texas this fall should
was responsible for 31.7% of Texas’s passing targets in 2021, be Arlington or bust.

No. 26 Minnesota Golden Gophers

Despite most teams struggling through the air, it was quite moments: they gave Ohio State a scare in the opener, capped
a year for the Big Ten West. Iowa made it to mid-Novem- the season by robbing rival Wisconsin of the division title,
ber undefeated and won the division, Wisconsin overcame and went 9-4 despite losing their best player in Week 1. Along
early struggles to finish on an 8-1 tear, and Purdue stunned the way, they somehow lost to Bowling Green and Illinois
two top-five teams in under a month. All of those teams had while allowing just 14 points in each game. There’s plenty to
their down moments, though—the Hawkeyes were a shadow build on from 2021, but there are also some games Minnesota
of themselves after their 6-0 start, the Badgers blew winning would love to forget.
chances against three conference opponents to end up second, Tanner Morgan is entering his fifth season at Minnesota, but
and the Boilermakers were run off the field after both of their even with 903 passes of sample size, charting his trajectory
big upsets. Of all the up-and-down seasons, though, Minne- into 2022 is no easy task. His best season was 2019, when he
sota’s was the most dramatic. The Golden Gophers had their passed for 10.2 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns and
432 NCAA TOP 50

7 interceptions; since then, he’s averaged only 7.9 yards per The defense struggled mightily in 2020, giving up well over
attempt with 17 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. To some 40 points to Michigan and Maryland and over 30 points per
extent, though, that regression is a result of the team around game overall, but it transformed into one of the nation’s best
him. In 2020, the Gophers’ receiving corps was extremely units in 2021. After an elite Ohio State offense scored 45 on
thin, with Rashod Bateman (now in the NFL) and Chris Aut- them in the first game, the Gophers didn’t allow 30 points
man-Bell accounting for nearly 65% of Minnesota’s receiving to any team for the rest of the season, and they allowed 16
yardage. The group grew deeper in 2021 with the emergence or fewer in six of the last seven games. Keeping that perfor-
of several other options, including Mike Brown-Stephens mance up in 2022 will be difficult due to their losses, how-
(392 yards), transfer Dylan Wright (365 yards), and tight end ever, especially on the line. Boye Mafe (34 tackles, 10 tackles
Brevyn Spann-Ford (296 yards); however, the early loss of for loss) leads the departures, and while Thomas Rush (7.5
Ibrahim (1076 yards in 2020) led to a shuffle in the rushing tackles for loss) and DeAngelo Carter (5 tackles for loss)
corps. Ky Thomas (824 yards), Mar’Keise Irving (699 yards), return, the depth behind them is poor. At middle linebacker,
and Treyson Potts (552 yards) stepped up to lead a group that Mariano Sori-Marin (85 tackles for loss, 3 pass breakups) will
still performed adequately (ranking 71st in EPA per rush), but take over from leading tackler Jack Gibbens. The secondary
there were growing pains—the Gophers rushed for an average has the most returning talent, led by rising sophomore Justin
of 3.5 yards per carry in a close win over Miami-Ohio and the Walley (7 breakups) and Western Kentucky transfer Beanie
losses to Bowling Green and Illinois. Making matters worse, Bishop (42 tackles, 3 interceptions), though Coney Durr (5
Thomas and Irving are both transferring, and while Ibrahim breakups) is a major loss at corner. The defense will be good
and Potts return from season-ending injuries, it’s the second again, but it shouldn’t need to be as great as it was last year for
huge overhaul to the run game in as many seasons. the Gophers to keep winning.

No. 27 Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue played seven more games in 2021 than in 2020, but sons, identifying the best way to use their remaining targets
they didn’t take any more losses, soaring from 2-4 to 9-4. After is the biggest concern for Purdue’s offense. Broc Thompson,
a 19-25 start to his tenure in four seasons, the breakout year was who’s played three seasons in a secondary role for Marshall
a major turnaround for Jeff Brohm, and it has the Boilermakers and Purdue, will get his shot to lead the receiving corps after
in an exciting place going forward. Wins over Iowa and Michi- posting 457 yards last year, and tight end Payne Durham (467
gan State, No. 2 and No. 5 nationally entering those games, yards) should be a key element of the offense as well. The
were the obvious highlights, but Purdue also bookended the addition of Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Charlie Jones
season with a win over Oregon State that turned out to be fairly should bolster the lineup as well. Whoever the top targets are,
impressive and a shootout victory against Tennessee in Nash- they’ll have one of the best returning quarterbacks in foot-
ville. The sustainability of that success is the question in 2022, ball throwing to them in O’Connell, who averaged 8.4 yards
but considering they draw Maryland and Penn State in cross- per attempt and tossed 26 touchdowns to 11 interceptions last
conference play instead of Ohio State and Michigan State, a run year. King Doerue returns to lead the run game, where he’s
at the Big Ten Championship Game isn’t out of the question. totaled over 1000 yards in 28 games, yet hasn’t reached four
Aidan O’Connell to David Bell was the conference’s most yards per carry in any of his three seasons.
electric passing tandem outside of Columbus, but the receiv- First-round pick George Karlaftis was Purdue’s best player
ing corps doesn’t have a standout player to go to this season. on defense, racking up 39 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and 4
With Bell and Jackson Anthrop (570 yards) now in the NFL pass breakups on the line last year; his departure means play-
and Milton Wright (732 yards) unavailable for academic rea- ers like Branson Deen (9.5 tackles for loss) and Kydran Jen-
 NCAA TOP 50 433

kins (8 tackles for loss) will need to produce up front. Line- weight on the secondary, which has the talent to handle it.
backer Jaylan Alexander, who ran away with the team lead Jalen Graham (64 tackles, 7 pass breakups, 2 interceptions)
in tackles, is another key loss, and while Purdue has talented has been a great fit as the up safety, giving the two-man line-
replacements in Semisi Fakasiieiki (38 tackles in 2019) and backer group a bit more depth, and Cam Allen (65 tackles, 3
OC Brothers (3.5 tackles for loss last year), it’s far from clear breakups, 4 interceptions) and Chris Jefferson (47 tackles, 4
whether either can take such a critical role. The lack of obvi- breakups) round out an excellent group at the position. Corner
ous leaders at linebacker is something Purdue has been pre- is less of a sure thing, but if Cory Trice (67 total tackles, 3
paring for, though, which is part of why they’ve shifted from interceptions in 2019 and 2020) can return from injury well,
a 3-4 to a 4-2-5 over the last two years. That puts additional the defensive backfield should excel.

No. 28 Oregon Ducks

The last time Oregon missed bowls in consecutive seasons, ing yards and 16 touchdowns both ranked second in the Pac-
they played in the Pac-10, Barry Sanders won the Heisman, 12 and whose 46 receptions also led the team. Byron Caldwell
and Nebraska was a top-10 team. The Ducks have been one impressed as a freshman, posting 417 yards on 6.8 yards per
of the most consistent teams in college football since then, carry, and he’s surrounded by a wealth of talent: rising soph-
winning reliably for over 30 years through coaching changes omores Mar’Keise Irving and Noah Whittington rushed for
and shifts in team philosophy. Still, as with many schools of a over 600 yards each last year (at Minnesota and Western Ken-
similar caliber, there’s an understandable expectation that Or- tucky, respectively). They’ll also have one of the best offen-
egon is capable of more. So it’s not with the heaviest heart that sive lines in the sport, which led the way last year as Oregon
they bid farewell to Mario Cristobal, whose last team was run rushed for 3.21 line yards per carry and were stuffed for a loss
off the field by Utah twice in three weeks, and who now de- or no gain on an FBS-low 9.7% of rushing attempts. In the
parts to Miami. In his place, they’ve tapped the coordinator of receiving corps, Devon Williams (557 yards) and Kris Hutson
one of the best defenses ever: Dan Lanning, who directed that (419 yards) are joined by some solid transfer talent, but there’s
unit at Georgia over the past three seasons. Fresh off a season no obvious top-level pass-catcher to target.
in which his defense allowed just 10.2 points per game, led Despite the presence of Kayvon Thibodeaux, whose 49
a national championship team, and saw a record five players tackles and 12 tackles for loss only scratch the surface of how
selected in the first round of the NFL draft, Lanning’s stock transformative he was to Oregon’s defense, the line had its
is about as high as it can ever be for a first-time head coach. struggles in 2021, surrendering 2.73 yards per carry up front
It’s a risk for the Ducks, but you wouldn’t bet against them to (84th in FBS) and producing a measly 4.4% sack rate (113th).
remain Pac-12 contenders going forward. With Thibodeaux gone, the Ducks will look to Brandon Dorlus
Anthony Brown was the definition of average at quarter- on the outside and Popo Aumavae at nose tackle. Linebacker
back: his yards per attempt (7.7), passing touchdowns (19), Noah Sewell is easily the best returner on defense—he racked
and interceptions (7) were all uncannily close to the FBS up 114 tackles last year and placed second on the team both
median (7.8, 17, and 7, respectively). His struggles in the re- with 8.5 tackles for loss and 5 pass breakups. The heart of Or-
match with Utah—including 6.1 yards per attempt and two egon’s defense will be daunting if Justin Flowe, a former top-10
interceptions—solidified the need to upgrade. Whether Bo recruit who’s struggled with injuries thus far, is healthy. Verone
Nix (7.1 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions for McKinley III, who tied for the national lead with six intercep-
Auburn last year) fulfills that need is debatable, but he does tions, is among the losses in the secondary; it’ll reload behind
give the offense a higher ceiling. The bigger question is how Colorado transfer Christian Gonzalez, who posted 53 tackles
Oregon replaces USC-bound Travis Dye, whose 1,271 rush- last year and broke up 5 passes in both of his seasons.
434 NCAA TOP 50

No. 29 Brigham Young Cougars

You don’t hear Kalani Sitake’s name come up in coaching 135 receiving yards per 12 games since the start of 2019. In
searches often—which perhaps makes sense, considering he’s the receiving corps, Puka Nacua broke out with 805 receiving
a BYU graduate and has only coached outside the state for yards last year and added 148 on the ground with just 14 car-
two years. But he really should be a top target, at least for ries. Gunner Romney (1941 career yards) rounds out an excel-
teams in the northwest, considering what he’s done in Provo. lent one-two punch at receiver, but depth could be a concern.
Bronco Mendenhall put together five ten-win seasons in six All those pieces stack up behind a great line that gave up just
years back in the late 2000s, but the Cougars had regressed to 1.3 sacks per game, 11th in the nation.
eight-win territory when Sitake took over. After a few seasons The defense regressed more than the offense last year, but
to recalibrate following the departure of their second-best it also brings back nearly every contributor. Experience is
coach in school history, BYU got rolling in 2020, and they’re key for this unit, which leans heavily on two-way players
21-4 in their last two seasons. All they did last year was knock who can lead the group in multiple elements. Payton Wilgar
off Utah (along with the other four Pac-12 teams they faced) is the most obvious example: in each of his three seasons,
and score 66 points on Mendenhall’s Virginia en route to a he’s put up at least 50 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 4 passes
10-3 finish. Expectations remain high for the Cougars with defensed. Keenan Pili, who totaled 31 tackles in just three
superlative returns from last year’s roster. games last year, rounds out a superb linebacker corps. Tyler
Jaren Hall was tasked with replacing second-overall draft Batty (43 tackles, 3.5 sacks) leads a defensive line that needs
pick Zach Wilson, and he’s done well thus far, averaging 8.7 to step up its run protection and sack production significant-
yards per attempt with 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions ly. The secondary has some interesting pieces to work with:
while commanding the offense to 33 points per game. The Malik Moore (32 tackles, 3 interceptions) leads great depth
star of the unit, though, was Tyler Allgeier, who ran for a at corner, but there’s no obvious star at safety—though there
staggering 1601 yards and 23 touchdowns—the latter tied for are several intriguing options, including Hayden Livingston
the FBS lead—in his final season. All eyes are on California (2 interceptions) and Vanderbilt transfer Gabe Jeudy-Lally
transfer Christopher Brooks, who’s averaged 680 rushing and (50 tackles).
 NCAA TOP 50 435

No. 30 Iowa State Cyclones

It would be hard to expect much of Iowa State in 2022, con- name, but his recruiting pedigree and efficiency make him
sidering heavy losses from a team that scraped its way to a 7-6 a suitable top rusher if he can handle the increased volume.
record, but that doesn’t mean this season won’t be important. The returns at receiver are excellent, with Xavier Hutchinson
Coming off the first major setback of his career, Matt Camp- (987 yards) leading the way, but tight ends Charlie Kolar (756
bell has an opportunity to prove that his success with the Cy- yards) and Chase Allen (284 yards) were critical pieces of the
clones isn’t a flash in the pan. It’s already impressive that 7-6 passing attack, and their absence will be felt.
is a disappointing season in Ames but piecing together another The defensive line only returns one starter, but Will McDon-
bowl season in a reset year would inspire a lot of confidence in ald IV—the Big 12 leader in sacks in back-to-back years—will
Campbell’s future, be that at Iowa State or at one of the other anchor the group. Arguably a bigger overhaul will have to take
programs that have tried to lure him. place at linebacker, where perennially underrated stars Jake
Brock Purdy was statistically unremarkable—7.8 yards Hummel (80 tackles, 2 interceptions) and Mike Rose (73 tack-
per attempt, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions is a fine les, 12 tackles for loss) are both gone. O’Rien Vance, who’s
stat line—but the Cyclones lost every game in which he racked up 196 tackles across four seasons, will be an everyday
was picked off, which made it hard not to wonder what they starter for the group after injuries limited him last year; Dela-
could’ve done with a breakout season from him. Former four- ware transfer Colby Reeder could also be an interesting piece,
star Hunter Dekkers will take the reins; he averaged 5.4 yards having totaled 56 tackles and 7 tackles for loss with the Blue
per attempt in mostly brief appearances last year. Replacing Hens last year. In the secondary, Anthony Johnson (55 tack-
Breece Hall, who placed in the Heisman vote and led the Big les, 4 pass breakups) will be pressed into a leadership role, as
12 with 23 total touchdowns in both of his last two seasons, Greg Ellsworth (60 tackles, 2 interceptions) has graduated and
is a taller order. Jirehl Brock only has 343 career yards to his Isheem Young (55 tackles, 2 interceptions) has transferred.

No. 31 Kansas State Wildcats

436 NCAA TOP 50

The Kansas State Wildcats played their hearts out in 2021, tency along the offensive line. Whereas he was pressured
but in key moments, they just came up short. Much of that can on 44.9% of dropbacks in 2021, the Wildcats only allowed
be attributed to a substantial lack of quarterback depth; when pressure on 35.3% of dropbacks. The experience along the
Skylar Thompson went down, the Wildcats struggled to find line, the explosive upside of Vaughn, and solid receiving op-
consistency in the quarterback position and couldn’t separate tions in Phillip Brooks (12.6 yards per reception, two touch-
from some teams that perhaps they felt they should’ve. After downs) and Malik Knowles (15.2 yards per reception, 4
a disappointing showing at Texas to end the regular season, touchdowns) all provide a great foundation for Martinez and
Kansas State made a change at offensive coordinator, promot- Klein to build a Big 12 contender on offense.
ing Wildcat legend Collin Klein to offensive coordinator and The other side of the ball for Kansas State has one of the
they’ll pair him with a fresh face at quarterback in Nebraska few truly elite units in the country. Last year was a breakout
Transfer Adrian Martinez. The offense finished 22nd in oppo- for edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who in his first year
nent-adjusted EPA/play, and in terms of raw efficiency was a starting terrorized opposing offenses with 43 pressures and 13
fine unit, but sequencing and poor performance in key spots sacks. On the other end of the line, Khalid Duke will return
had them coming up short in close games against Baylor, Tex- from injury. The combination of Anudik-Uzomah and Duke
as, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. will be undoubtedly one of the best pass rush-tandems in the
Chris Klieman’s team is built on the principles of execu- Big 12, taking plenty of pressure off a pass coverage unit that
tion, high floor, and opportunity maximization. Last year, struggled last season (0.076 EPA/play allowed, 86th in the na-
the inconsistency derailed a lot of that. Returning running tion). Cornerback Ekow Boye-Doe was competitive, allow-
back Deuce Vaughn, one of the nation’s most versatile and ing just three touchdowns on 39 targets, but allowed a 64.1%
explosive offensive threats, almost single-handedly drove completion rate and 10.6 yards per reception. An increased
the Wildcat offense. Vaughn had 58.9% of team rushing at- pass rush presence should help Boye-Doe grow and ease the
tempts and 22.0% of team receiving targets, leading the team pain of losing safety Russ Yeast (253rd to the Rams), the
in both. He averaged 6.0 yards per attempt and 9.6 yards per team’s leading tackler. Kansas State’s vision for 2022 makes
reception, scoring 22 of the team’s 36 touchdowns. Vaughn sense on paper: raise the defensive quality with an elite pass
had 42 runs of 10 or more yards and 22 first downs in the rush and another year of experience in the secondary and raise
passing game. With 62 miss tackles forced, one might even the offensive quality by minimizing inconsistency and maxi-
say Vaughn “eats defenders’ ankles for breakfast.” Marti- mizing opportunity for explosive plays. The Big 12 is wide
nez, an erratic yet talented quarterback, will appreciate the open this fall with the coaching turnover, and Kansas State
weapon that is Vaughn, and will appreciate some consis- and Chris Kleiman feel they have a claim to the title.

No. 32 Miami Hurricanes

Last fall, Miami had a head full of steam: a returning quar- terback Tyler Van Dyke and won five of their final six, includ-
terback in D’Eriq King, an opportunity to go toe to toe with ing back-to-back wins against ranked N.C. State and at No.
college football’s best in a season-opener with Alabama, and 17 Pittsburgh. Instead of treating that as a rebound and posi-
hope that the U was back. Instead of being “back”, Miami tive momentum for the offseason, Miami saw that rebound as
struggled, starting the season 2-4 with the two wins coming proof that their ceiling was much higher than it seemed; the
in a one-score game against Appalachian State and a blowout Hurricanes dismissed Many Diaz as head coach and brought
of FCS Central Connecticut State. Staring a game with No. 18 in Oregon head coach and Miami native Mario Cristobal to
N.C. State in the face, the Hurricanes were in danger of their take over the program. In addition to making great strides in
season spiraling. Instead, the Hurricanes got behind new quar- the recruiting game, Cristobal is tasked with reforming the
 NCAA TOP 50 437

culture, and he’s embraced it by bringing in former players sive end from West Virginia (31 pressures and 25 tackles
and reforming Miami’s public image. in 2021) will bolster a pass rush that recorded a pressure
Tyler Van Dyke enters 2022 regarded as one of the top on 26.1% of dropbacks. Miami’s continued aggression in
quarterbacks in the nation, and expectations in Coral Gables out-of-conference scheduling puts them in the mix for the
are sky high. Miami returns 82% of their defense (11th in national conversation every year; they’ll travel to Kyle Field
the nation), and after they finished 20th in EPA/play in 2021, and face Texas A&M in Week 3. In ACC play, they’ll have a
they are poised to capitalize as one of the strongest sides of trip to Clemson in November circled as the game that makes
the ball in the ACC. Akheem Mesidor, a disruptive defen- or breaks a season.

No. 33 Louisiana State Tigers

LSU football made a bold move to try and return to the top averaged 13.6 yards per completion and led the Tigers with 9
of college football by wooing Brian Kelly from Notre Dame. touchdowns last season, and his name is already being thrown
Kelly will look to erase the middling 5-5 and 6-7 records of the around NFL draft boards.
2020 and 2021 seasons and establish LSU’s place as one of the On defense, LSU struggled all season, ranking 64th in EPA/
nation’s top college programs. LSU’s offense was far from trag- play overall (0.001) and 71st in EPA/rush (0.008). Nine op-
ic in 2021 (0.161 EPA/play ranked 16th nationally), although ponents rushed for 100 yards or more against LSU’s defense
quarterback Max Johnson was erratic: 59.9% completion rate in 2021, and Brian Kelly brought in Kansas City Chiefs line-
and a 4.2% turnover-worthy play rate. The offensive line had backers coach Matt House to reform LSU’s defense. LSU’s
trouble keeping Johnson protected: he was pressured on 34.5% defensive front should be formidable, with contributors BJ
of dropbacks and had a 9.3% turnover-worthy play rate on pres- Ojulari (49 pressures, 33 tackles) and Ali Gaye (20 pressures,
sured dropbacks. Johnson transferred to Texas A&M in the off- 12, tackles) returning. The biggest question mark on defense
season, presumably looking for an offense with a better fit for will be how new pieces in the secondary fit in to challenge op-
his skill set. Johnson’s departure leaves the LSU quarterback in posing offenses. LSU draws Tennessee and Florida from the
an open competition between sixth-year senior Myles Brennan, East division, two games they should be competitive in, and a
Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels, and redshirt freshman season-opener at Florida State should give the Tigers a chance
Garrett Nussmeier. Daniels is intriguing, given his out-of-pock- to set the tone for their season. Playing in the SEC West with
et style and running ability; if he wins the job, LSU’s offense an uncertain quarterback situation and huge turnover in the
would look dramatically different than last season. Whoever defensive secondary might mean Kelly’s LSU won’t ascend
plays quarterback will have the luxury of throwing the ball to quite yet, but they’ll have plenty of opportunities to claw their
Kayshon Boutte, one of the nation’s best wide receivers. Boutte way towards the top of the division.
438 NCAA TOP 50

No. 34 Arkansas Razorbacks

Coming into last season, the Razorbacks hadn’t won nine yards per carry in 2021, and more importantly for the Veer-
games since 2011. After a decade in the wilderness, head and-Shoot flavor of offense Arkansas runs, he averaged 9.9
coach Sam Pittman appears to be bringing the Razorbacks yards per reception as well.
home to the promised land. The Hogs went 9-4, with close On defense, Arkansas returns 60% of production (87th in
losses against Ole Miss and Alabama. Most impressively, the nation); safety Simeon Blair (25 tackles, 44.4% comple-
the Razorbacks survived a three-game stretch against Texas tion rate allowed) and cornerback LaDarrius Bishop (3 touch-
A&M, Georgia, and Ole Miss, going 2-1 and then bouncing downs allowed in 24 targets) are the most veteran returners in
back to finish 5-2 to end the season. Teams with a weaker cul- the secondary. Linebacker Grant Morgan signed with the Jag-
ture might have struggled after that stretch, but Pittman’s Ar- uars as an UDFA, but experienced super-senior Bumper Pool
kansas settled down and held tough. Leading receiver Treylon (87 tackles led the team) will anchor the linebacking corps
Burks (31.2% of targets, 16.9 yards per reception, 11, touch- in 2022. Edge rusher Eric Gregory should have an expanded
downs) was picked 18th overall by the Titans, and he leaves role in his senior year as well. Last fall, Arkansas’s defense
a vacuum in Kendal Briles’ offense for 2022, along with the ranked second in EPA/play allowed (-0.268), holding seven
departure of Tyson Morris, the second leading receiver. Ar- opponents to fewer than 20 points. They’ll have to replace key
kansas’s passing offense was high-volatility; KJ Jefferson on-field pieces, as well as defensive backs coach Sam Carter,
threw for 21 touchdowns and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, but Barry Odom’s defense should have more continuity in
but the unit ranked 93rd in efficiency, with -0.09 EPA/play. success than returning production alone suggests.
One big issue with the passing game: 10.7% of Jefferson’s The Hogs have one of the tougher schedules in the country,
passes were dropped, and in a boom-and-bust offense, those merely by playing in the SEC West, but their non-conference
dropped passes represent far more lost opportunity cost than opponents include reigning AAC champ Cincinnati, Hugh
the calculated loss in efficiency. Jefferson comes into 2022 as Freeze’s Liberty, and a trip to BYU. The good news is that Ar-
one of the more respected veteran quarterbacks in the SEC— kansas hosts South Carolina, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss, set-
he’s a dynamic athlete who averaged 6.1 yards per attempt ting them up to be competitive again and perhaps even close the
in the rushing game and had 27 rushes of 10 or more yards gap in those in-conference matchups. The offensive firepower
last fall. As his dual threat develops in the passing game, Jef- is there, but needs another deep threat to emerge, and defensive
ferson will be a quarterback this fall opponents will hate to continuity is in doubt, but the Arkansas Razorbacks under Sam
scheme against. Raheim “Rocket” Sanders will take over as Pittman have defied the Hogs before. Despite the tough sched-
the primary back for the Razorbacks this fall. He averaged 4.9 ule, the Hogs won’t be a tough out in any game this fall.
 NCAA TOP 50 439

No. 35 Boise State Broncos

In 14 of the 15 seasons preceding the 2021 season, Boise passing game, Khalil Shakir was a revelation, averaging 14.5
State had a win percentage of .700 or better. The Broncos won yards per attempt and scoring 7 touchdowns on 77 receptions.
10 games or more 10 times, winning seven bowl games, includ- He was drafted 148th by the Bills, leaving a huge gap to fill in
ing two BCS bowls. Boise State football’s run of success has the receiver corps. Stefan Cobbs returns as the highest-targeted
been nearly unmatched in the Group of 5 over that span, and ex- receiver, accounting for 11.7% of targets and averaging 12.6
pectations were high for head coach Andy Avalos’s first season. yards per reception. Cobbs also ranked second on the team in
The final record of 7-5 might seem a little underwhelming, but touchdowns in 2021, suggesting that his role will be expanded
there is plenty to be excited about for year two. Three of Boise this fall.
State’s five losses came by one score, including a one-point loss On defense, Boise State returns 80% of production, 16th
to Big 12 Championship Game participant Oklahoma State that in the nation. The defense should improve substantially from
came down to a last-minute drive. Boise State ranked 46th in its 41st efficiency rating (-0.048 EPA/play), led by safety JL
offensive efficiency, averaging 0.059 EPA/play. The passing Skinner (team-leading 72 tackles in 2021) and disruptive
offense, led by veteran quarterback Hank Bachmeier (3,070 tackle Scott Matlock (24 pressures, 27 tackles). The deep unit
yards, 7.6 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns), rated as the 24th- should be Boise’s strength this fall, as the Broncos look to
most efficient unit in college football (0.171 EPA/pass), but the return to their winning ways and compete for the Mountain
run game was far less efficient (-0.004 EPA/rush, 70th). The West title and a shot at the New Years’ Six. A November game
Broncos were fairly aggressive, passing 5.1% more often than against BYU and a Thanksgiving weekend matchup with
the average team, but the lack of rushing efficiency hampered Utah State will be good barometers for whether Boise will
the offense. Leading rusher George Holani returns; he aver- toil again this fall or if Andy Avalos’s Broncos will be making
aged 4.8 yards per rush but scored only one touchdown. In the national news.

No. 36 Nebraska Cornhuskers

440 NCAA TOP 50

One-score losses are among the most-debated topics in this more troubling, as no Power 5 quarterback threw more with
sport, so it follows that predictions for how Nebraska will fewer than Martinez’s 201 clean dropbacks. At any rate, Mar-
bounce back from 2021—when they somehow went 3-9 with tinez is now at Kansas State and Texas transfer Casey Thomp-
every loss by nine points or fewer—are all over the place. The son, who averaged 8.1 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns
schedule does get significantly easier: the Cornhuskers will and 9 interceptions last year, takes command of this offense.
trade crossover games against Ohio State and Michigan State Rahmir Johnson (495 yards) returns to lead the way at running
(who finished second and third in the Big Ten East) for match- back, but top pass-catchers Samori Toure and Austin Allen are
ups with Indiana and Rutgers (who finished last and second- both gone, thrusting Omar Manning (380 yards) into the role
to-last). You’d also have to figure that another season with of top receiver.
such a bad performance in close games is nigh impossible. The defensive returns at linebacker are fantastic: Luke Re-
There’s an argument that this team is capable of eight or wins imer, Nick Henrich, Garrett Nelson, and Caleb Tannor all
on paper that isn’t totally unconvincing, but the goal right now started last season and combined for some 297 tackles, 26.5
is just to get to a bowl. Any less, and it’s hard to imagine Frost tackles for loss, and 14 pass breakups. But the rest of the de-
getting another chance. fense loses most of its depth, as only one other every day start-
Nebraska’s offensive line gave up 164 pressures, the sec- er is back. Ty Robinson has the potential to break out on the
ond-most allowed by a Power 5 team during the regular sea- line, and Nebraska also added TCU transfer Ochaun Mathis,
son. Those struggles up front aren’t expected to go away, as who’s put up 40 or more tackles in three straight seasons with
injuries plagued the group in spring, but it’d be hard to do 12.5 sacks in that span. Quinton Newsome (57 tackles, 4 pass
worse than last year. In part because of his lack of protection, breakups) is a force in the backfield, but beyond him and
Adrian Martinez’s 2021 season was a mixed bag: he averaged Myles Farmer (30 tackles), depth is a glaring problem. The
an excellent 9.4 yards per attempt but threw 14 touchdowns to defense was a strength last year, never allowing more than 35
10 interceptions. When under pressure, Martinez performed points despite a difficult schedule, but it’s going to be hard for
remarkably well, with 9.9 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, Nebraska to capitalize on their potential unless they can keep
and 4 interceptions. His six picks from a clean pocket were up that performance through heavy losses.

No. 37 Arizona State Sun Devils

There are two stories about Arizona State, both of which dismissive. The Sun Devils are due for some regression with
make sense independently, but which clash violently with below-average returns and losses to the portal, but it’s any-
each other. One is how they’ve performed under Herm Ed- one’s guess whether they’ll land on their feet, or whether the
wards: they’re 25-18, a marked improvement from Todd Gra- façade will come crashing down.
ham’s last three seasons (18-20) and almost exactly in line One of the most common refrains in criticism of Edwards’
with their historic winning rate. Last year’s team put a scare tenure has been underachievement, and that starts at quar-
into division champion Utah and beat UCLA to finish sec- terback. Jayden Daniels regressed across the board last year,
ond in the Pac-12 South. But look at anything anybody’s said dropping from 8.3 yards per attempt to 7.9 and throwing as
about this program lately and the other shoe drops. Coaches, many interceptions as touchdowns (ten of each). He’s off to
reporters, and fans alike concur that the Sun Devils’ looming LSU, and Florida transfer Emory Jones will seek to improve
recruiting scandal, amateurish coaching, and undisciplined on his performance. Jones also averaged 7.9 yards per attempt
play will bite them eventually, though it hasn’t shown on the last year, but he did throw 19 touchdowns to 13 interceptions,
field yet. As justified as the criticisms are, it’s also worth re- and his progression in his second season as a starter will be
membering that the reaction to Edwards’ hiring was similarly vital. The other big offensive change: Rachaad White (1,000
 NCAA TOP 50 441

rushing yards, 456 receiving yards) gives way to Wyoming while shifting his strength from helping the line (8.5 tackles
transfer Xazavian Valladay (1,063 rushing yards, 233 receiv- for loss, 5 sacks in 2018) to defending against the pass (3
ing yards). With Ricky Pearsall (580 yards) leading the re- interceptions in 2021). The defensive line could have some
turns at receiver and Cam Johnson (327 yards) arriving from growing pains, as two players who weren’t on it last year lead
Vanderbilt, the passing attack should be fine, and Daniyel the way: back-from-injury Jermayne Lole (24 tackles, 5 tack-
Ngata (309 yards) is a good fit to back up Valladay. les for loss in a four-game 2020) and Miami transfer Nesta
The defense’s strength is at linebacker, where Kyle Soelle Jade Silvera (38 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss last year). The
(88 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 pass breakups) leads the team secondary faces by far the heaviest losses, making the addi-
on and off the field. Merlin Robertson is entering his fifth year tion of transfer safety Khoury Bethley (99 tackles, 8.5 tackles
as a starter, a lengthy career that’s seen him remain effective for loss, 5 interceptions for Hawaiʻi) a key move.

No. 38 Florida State Seminoles

It’s only natural to compare Florida State to in-state rival Mi- good as his backup and now steps into the lead role. Florida
ami, and 2021 presents a particularly interesting contrast. The State didn’t necessarily need receiving depth with Ontaria
Hurricanes opened the season in the top 15, were summarily Wilson (382 yards) and Keyshawn Helton (278 yards) lead-
walloped by Alabama and Michigan State, and started 2-4, but ing great returns, but they grabbed impact transfers regard-
they stunned ranked N.C. State and Pitt teams and rolled to a less: Winston Wright (688 yards at West Virginia) and Mycah
5-1 finish. But Miami had their eye on Oregon coach Mario Pittman (197 yards at Oregon). Improvement on the offensive
Cristobal, and head coach Manny Diaz was unable to save his line is also expected, and this unit is capable of being a con-
job despite the strong close to the season. Early expectations sistent strength if things go well.
weren’t as high in Tallahassee, but the initial letdown was It’s easy to attribute the Seminoles’ late-season charge to Tra-
even worse: the Seminoles started 0-4 and lost to Jacksonville vis and the offense alone, but the defense played a major role as
State, the first loss to an FCS team in program history. But well. After allowing 36.0 points per game in 2020 and 32.8 in
from October on, they pulled it together and started winning the first four games of 2021, they didn’t give up more than 30 to
again, finishing on a 5-3 tear and nearly managing a remark- any opponent over the last eight games. Most of the front seven
able bowl-season comeback before narrowly losing to Florida is back, but the two key starters who aren’t—Jermaine John-
in the season finale. It turned out to be enough for Mike Nor- son II (70 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss) and Keir Thomas (42
vell—admittedly only in his second season to Diaz’s third—to tackles, 12 tackles for loss)—combined for more than half of
stick around, and now he enters a make-or-break year in 2022, the Seminoles’ sacks last year. Jared Verse, an Albany transfer
as most of Florida State’s key pieces return. with 52 tackles and 9.5 sacks last year, is the player to watch up
Jordan Travis (7.9 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, 6 front as Florida State tries to replace that production. As at re-
interceptions) lost his starting role to McKenzie Milton (5.6 ceiver, the linebacker corps was already loaded (returning start-
yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) early on, but ers Kalen DeLoach, DJ Lundy, and Amari Gainer combined
once he reclaimed it, the Seminoles’ offense took a major step for 197 tackles and 17 tackles for loss last year), but the Semi-
forward; he threw 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions during noles still added Tatum Bethune (108 tackles, 2 interceptions at
that 5-3 finish. The only major loss from last year’s offense UCF). The secondary also has excellent continuity, as Jammie
is Jashaun Corbin, who led the running backs with 887 yards Robinson (84 tackles, 4 interceptions) and Jarvis Brownlee (51
but faded down the stretch; Treshaun Ward (515 yards) looked tackles, 2 interceptions) lead strong returns.
442 NCAA TOP 50

No. 39 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest’s 2021 offense averaged 41 points per game, Roberson, who co-led the team with 71 receptions and put up
better than an Alabama offense led by a Heisman-winning 1,078 yards. With Christian Beal-Smith (604 yards) transfer-
quarterback and five draft picks. They were one of just two ring to South Carolina, Justice Ellison and Christian Turner
teams all year to score 70 against an FBS opponent, doing so will headline the rushing attack, which should avoid a step
in a shootout with Army. And that superb offense spearheaded back due to their experience (233 combined carries last year).
an 8-0 start, unseating Florida State and Clemson in the ACC The offensive line is yet another strength, with four returning
Atlantic for the first time since 2008. But for all the success starters and Je’Vionte’ Nash back from injury.
of the Demon Deacons’ attack, their defense was often un- Losing Luiji Vilain is a major blow—not just to Wake For-
able to keep up, surrendering 28.9 points per game (88th in est’s chances of putting a player on the all-name team, but
FBS) including 40 or more points in five games, all in their also to their defensive line, where he supplied 34 tackles and
last eight. Wake Forest wasn’t disappointed with an 11-3 sea- a team-leading 8 sacks last year. On the upside, they do return
son, and excellent offensive returns give them an opportunity Rondell Bothroyd (63 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss) and Ja-
to be great again in 2022, but it feels like their ceiling can’t go sheen Davis (34 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss); stopping the run
much higher until they figure out how to stop opponents from will be an emphasis up front, although the line was disruptive
keeping up with their all-world offense. on the edge and produced plenty of pass rush. The linebackers
Quarterback Sam Hartman had shown sparks of brilliance have been a part of the run defense problem, and progression
in 2020, and he became the focal point of the offense in 2021, from Ryan Smenda (83 tackles, 2 pass breakups, 2 forced fum-
averaging 8.3 yards per attempt with 39 touchdowns and 14 bles) and Chase Jones (47 tackles, 2 forced fumbles) is a must.
interceptions. If he can cut down on the picks while main- The secondary is overhauled with Ja’Sir Taylor (59 tackles, 2
taining his otherwise-fantastic performance, he could land interceptions) and Luke Masterson (85 tackles, 13 tackles for
squarely in the Heisman race. His targets will include A.T. loss) gone, and Caelan Carson—best on the team in 2021 with
Perry, who racked up 1,293 yards while ranking third in the two interceptions and seven pass breakups—will need to step
ACC in yards per reception, and Taylor Morin, who quietly up and lead the group. The main question in the backfield is
added 621 yards as a secondary receiver last year; Donavon Nick Andersen, who broke out in 2020 with 63 tackles and 4
Greene, who was injured last year but put up 582 yards in interceptions but regressed significantly last year, only post-
2020, will also be a key piece. However, he does lose Jaquarii ing 44 tackles, 1 interception, and 3 pass breakups.
 NCAA TOP 50 443

No. 40 Central Florida Knights

It seems like something of a fool’s errand to predict anything ceivers are a bit of a work in progress. Ryan O’Keefe com-
even tangentially related to UCF football. In their first season fortably led the group with 812 yards and 84 receptions, but
in the AAC, the Knights went 12-1, finished in the top 10, and he averaged fewer than 9.7 yards per reception and was far
won the Fiesta Bowl; two years later they went 0-12 and only more efficient on the ground (274 yards on 16 carries). Bran-
came within a single score twice—one of those games being don Johnson (565 yards) is gone, but Auburn transfer Kobe
a loss to FCS Furman. Two years after that, Scott Frost had Hudson (580 yards) should contribute immediately, and tight
turned things all the way around and the Knights were back end Kemore Gamble (414 yards at Florida) could be a core
on top, going 13-0, leading the nation in points per game, and piece as well.
making a somewhat-defensible national championship claim The defense didn’t make its living up front, but losing Big
after beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Three years later Kat Bryant (50 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 3 pass breakups)
they had dipped to 6-4 and beginning to have serious doubts still hurts a lot. Expect Josh Celiscar (39 tackles, 7.5 tackles
about Josh Heupel ... who promptly jumped to Tennessee and for loss) and Tre’Mon Morris-Brash (who leads UCF’s return-
had a better first season than any of Frost’s four at Nebraska. ers with 4 sacks) to lead the edge rush while Ricky Barber
Meanwhile, UCF returned to form with a 9-4 season under (29 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss) anchors the interior. Jeremiah
Gus Malzahn, of all people. On paper, a similar season makes Jean-Baptiste (51 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss) is a huge re-
sense in 2022, but don’t bet the farm on it. turn for an otherwise-thin linebacker group, which will look
There’s an open competition at quarterback, where Miley to Eastern Illinois transfer Jason Johnson (101 tackles, 6.5
Keene (6.4 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, 6 intercep- tackles for loss, 4 fumbles recovered) for a big season. The
tions) didn’t lose many games but also didn’t win many. secondary will be the key to the Knights’ success, though:
Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee averaged 6.1 yards Davonte Brown (33 tackles, 12 pass breakups), Quadric Bul-
per attempt with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions against lard (83 tackles, 6 pass breakups), Divaad Wilson (72 tack-
a mostly SEC slate back in 2019, but he hasn’t passed much les, 2 interceptions), and Corey Thornton (32 tackles, 6 pass
since then. The rushing corps should be a strength with Isa- breakups) make up an elite returning lineup, and UCF added
iah Bowser (778 total yards) and Johnny Richardson (733 another FCS All-American for good measure with Koby Perry
rushing yards, 226 receiving yards) returning, while the re- (85 tackles, 2 interceptions at Austin Peay).
444 NCAA TOP 50

No. 41 Louisville Cardinals

In Scott Satterfield’s third season, the Louisville Cardinals most potent attacks in the nation. The passing game struggled,
recorded a 6-7 record, losing four of six one-score games. ranking 98th in EPA/play. Cunningham completed 61.3% of
The defense ranked 28th in EPA/play allowed (-0.077), led by his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt but threw 6 interceptions
safety Qwynterrio Cole and linebacker C.J. Avery, who com- to his 18 touchdowns.
bined for 131 tackles and 57 stops. The defense returns 76% The Cardinals return the 29th-most production on offense
of production and replacing Cole and Avery will be the biggest (75%), including tight end Marshon Ford and receiver Ahmari
task. Safety Kenderick Dunca ranked second in tackles on the Huggins-Bruce, who combined for 101 targets, 6 touchdowns,
team last season, and redshirt senior Dorian Jones racked up and over 800 yards. The Cardinals scored 20 passing touch-
32 tackles in limited snaps (337). One key to a defensive im- downs and 27 rushing touchdowns last fall—that split and
provement in 2022: Edge rushers Yasir Abdullah and YaYa Di- the relative lack of a go-to touchdown receiver indicates that
aby, with a combined 49 pressures and 10 sacks among them, there may be red zone issues the team is working on this fall.
both return. In pass coverage, cornerback Kei’Trel Clark was With so much returning production, the Cardinals’ offseason
the most-targeted pass defender, allowing a 53.2% completion and fall camp will focus on formalizing the passing game; the
rate. Greedy Vance, who manned the other corner position, key to Louisville’s success this fall will be punishing opponents
transferred to Florida State, leaving shoes to be filled. On the downfield when they overcommit to the very credible threat of
offensive side of the ball, quarterback Malik Cunningham’s Cunningham’s legs. Their chances in the ACC rest on develop-
legs were Louisville’s most formidable weapon: Cunningham ing that downfield threat, and taking advantage of hosting Pitt,
led the team in yards (1,075) and touchdowns (19), averaging Wake Forest, and N.C. State in conference play. With a danger-
7.3 yards per attempt and breaking 36 runs for 10 or more ous threat like Cunningham at the helm, the ceiling for Lou-
yards. On Cunningham’s back alone, Louisville’s rushing of- isville’s offense is high—can they capitalize this fall and play
fense averaged 0.139 EPA/play (17th nationally), one of the consistent enough defense to separate from ACC opponents?

No. 42 Fresno State Bulldogs

 NCAA TOP 50 445

Fresno State’s Jake Haener might be the best Group of 5 be his 787 yards and five touchdowns. Senior Jordan Mims
quarterback you didn’t hear about in 2021. Haener completed carried the backup load last year and should slide in nicely to
67.7% of his passes, averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, and fin- fill that leading role.
ished 10th with 32 passing touchdowns. In 8 games, Haener The Bulldogs’ defensive continuity bodes well for a unit
had 300 or more passing yards, including 455 in the team’s that ranked 44th in EPA/pass allowed (-0.063) but needs to
win at UCLA. That doesn’t account for his 69.8% completion improve in the run game (115th in EPA/rush at 0.131). Fresno
and 298 yards in a one-score loss at Oregon. Aside from a State allowed 150 rushing yards in six games, and their strug-
six-turnover debacle at Hawai’i, Fresno completed one of the gles against the rush proved decisive in close losses against
school’s stronger seasons, posting double-digit wins for the Oregon and Hawai’i. Leading tackler Evan Williams (66) will
fourth time in 20 years. Head Coach Kalen DeBoer was re- anchor the back end of the defense at safety, and the lineback-
warded for his success with the head coaching job at Washing- er duo of Levelle Bailey and Malachi Langley (80 combined
ton, and the Bulldogs are now in an interesting spot of return- tackles and 55 combined stops) should provide more consis-
ing a lot of production (82% of offense and 73% of defense) tent run games with experience. The one question mark for
but sporting a new coaching staff. Jeff Tedford takes over at Fresno State will be how the defensive line shakes out; can
Fresno, and so that new staff features a familiar face; Tedford Tedford construct a more formidable run defense and build
was the head coach from 2017-2019, with a 26-14 record. on last year’s success? The Bulldogs are always aggressive in
He’ll oversee an offense that ranked 28th in EPA/play (0.110) their non-conference schedule. They’ll have early tests host-
in 2021, and in addition to the veteran Haener, returns leading ing an up-and-coming Oregon State and then facing USC in
receiving target Jalen Cropper (23.9% of targets, 11.0 yards the prime time. The continuity on offense, the experience of
per reception, 11 touchdowns) and the explosive Josh Kelly Haener, and Tedford’s track record of success lay a founda-
(15.3 yards per reception) and Keric Wheatfall (16.2 yards tion for another special season in Fresno. Whether the defense
per reception). Running back Ronnie Rivers left for the NFL can challenge the run games of the Mountain West will be the
(UDFA to Arizona), so the biggest hole to fill on offense will burning question in conference play.

No. 43 UCLA Bruins

The 2021 season began with a bang for UCLA, as the tion rate under 60% and two with over 72%), he improved
Bruins claimed the spotlight with an 11-point win over then- down the stretch as the Bruins beat their final three opponents
ranked 16 LSU. UCLA climbed to No. 13 in the polls before by an average score of 49.3 to 22.3. The Bruins sustained big
a rough 1-2 stretch including home losses to Fresno State and losses in the receiving corps: tight end Greg Dulcich (drafted
Arizona State. The Bruins then went 5-2 down the stretch, 80th to Denver) and Kyle Phillips (163rd to Tennessee) com-
perhaps underrated on account of their early rollercoaster and bined for 51.2% of team targets and 65.2% of team touch-
the fading of their quality win, LSU. UCLA was more con- downs. While the wide receiving corps will look brand new,
sistent in 2021 than meets the eye; the Bruins ranked 32nd the rushing game will feature one of the nation’s most durable
in opponent-adjusted Eckel Margin, generating quality pos- and effective backs in Zach Charbonnet. In 2021, Charbonnet
sessions at a rate 11.6 percentage points higher than their averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 204 attempts for UCLA and
opponents. The offense passed well, averaging 0.147 EPA/ had 31 runs of 10 or more yards.
pass, while rushing 5.9% more than an average team. Quar- On defense, the Bruins return 54% of production (104th in
terback Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 61.6% of his the nation); the team leader in tackles, Qwuantrezz Knight
passes for 8.4 yards per attempt and 21 touchdowns. Although signed as an undrafted free agent with San Francisco and
Thompson-Robinson was flighty (five games with a comple- leaves a huge gap at safety. The 2021 defense ranked 45th
446 NCAA TOP 50

allowing -0.041 EPA/play. Edge rusher Bo Calvert, second Washington, Utah, Oregon, and Stanford is where the rubber
on the team in pressures with 18, returns with four seasons of meets the road for Chip Kelly’s team; three of those four
playing experience and should pose a threat to Pac-12 quar- games are at home. With a good showing in that stretch, 10
terbacks. The Bruins’ schedule is heavy in the middle; they’ll wins isn’t out of the question for the 2021 Bruins, but that
get a nice ramp up in the non-conference before facing Colo- October slate is one of the tougher grinds any college team
rado to kick off conference play. A four-game stretch against will face this fall.

No. 44 North Carolina Tar Heels

Even accounting for the heightened aspirations and expecta- to the Giants, and Jordan Tucker as an UDFA to the Steelers),
tions that come with a projected first-round NFL quarterback, which looms as a larger question even than who will be the
North Carolina’s 2021 fell flat. The Tar Heels followed up an second wide receiver option.
8-4 2020 campaign with a disappointing 6-7 and a bowl loss On the defensive side of the ball, the Tar Heels will look
to neighboring South Carolina. The Tar Heels offense fin- to improve in the secondary, a unit that lacked consistency.
ished 86th in opponent-adjusted EPA/play, 104th in EPA/pass North Carolina finished 59th in EPA/pass allowed (-0.033),
(-0.139), and 83rd in EPA/rush (-0.033). Quarterback Sam compared to 23rd in EPA/rush (-0.097). The Tar Heels re-
Howell struggled to lift an increasingly problematic supporting turn 76% of defensive production, 31st among FBS teams.
cast; of Howell’s 462 dropbacks, he was pressured 146 times, Cornerback Storm Duck will anchor the secondary (57.9%
17th most in the nation, and his 17 dropped passes ranked 44th completion rate allowed, 13.0 yards per completion in 2021),
among FBS quarterbacks. Drake Maye, a four-star sophomore, and the duo of Tomari Fox and Raymond Vohasek (28 pres-
will take over the Tar Heel offense this fall after Howell went sures, 36 tackles combined) should present a formidable front
144th overall to the Commanders. Leading target Josh Downs for ACC foes. The Tar Heels have a robust non-conference
(41.4% target share, the highest in the nation in 2021) returns schedule, with back-to-back road games to Appalachian State
to anchor the receiving corps, although there is uncertainty in and Georgia State followed by a visit from Notre Dame. With
who will complement Downs as a second option. The run game one of the nation’s most reliable receivers in Downs, and an
loses Ty Chandler (169th to the Vikings), who was responsible improved defense, the Tar Heels will look to rebound from a
for 56.6% of non-quarterback rushing attempts and averaged down 2021—if they get rolling, look for North Carolina to be
6.1 yards per attempt. The offensive line loses three starters a popular spoiler pick late in the season for one of Pitt, Vir-
(Joshua Ezeudu 67th to the Giants, Marcus McKethan 173rd ginia, Wake Forest, or N.C. State.
 NCAA TOP 50 447

No. 45 Houston Cougars

The Houston Cougars bookended their 2021 season with junior Alex Hogan and Senior Jayce Rogers both have plenty
losses; first, a second-half collapse against a struggling Texas of experience at the position.
Tech team and last, a two-score loss in the American Athletic On offense, Houston returns one of the better pairings in the
Conference Championship. In between, the Cougars ripped FBS, let alone the Group of 5, in quarterback Clayton Tune
off 11 straight wins, playing a mix of gritty defense and con- (68.2% completion, 26 touchdowns, 42.3% first down rate)
sistent-yet explosive offense to outscore FBS opponents by and receiver Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (29.3% of team targets, 11
an average of 19.9 points during that stretch. One would be touchdowns and 14.3 yards per reception in 2021). Alongside
remiss to fail to mention the cherry on top of a successful the most productive quarterback-wide receiver duo in the con-
season, Houston’s 17-13 Birmingham Bowl win over Auburn. ference, the Cougars return a power duo at running back in Al-
The defense, led by rising star coordinator Doug Belk, held ton McCaskill IV (5.2 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns) and
opponents to -0.047 EPA/rush (44th best) and -0.149 EPA/ Ta’Zhawn Henry (102 carries, 4.8 yards per attempt). As for
pass (19th). That unit returns 55% of production, 100th in the the task of protecting those skill players, Houston returns three
nation, but will have big shoes to fill with the losses of de- starters along the offensive line and brought in Tyler Johnson
fensive end Logan Hall (33rd overall to the Buccaneers), and from Texas to fill one of the other starting spots. Dana Holger-
cornerbacks Marcus Jones (85th to the Patriots) and Damarion son is talking a big game about this fall, and they are certainly
Williams (151st to the Ravens). Some of the Cougars’ depth poised to make a run in the AAC. Road games at UTSA and
from 2021 will carry over to the defensive line, with Atlias a rebuilding Texas Tech to start the season will quickly reveal
Bell (35 pressures, 20 tackles) and Derek Parish (35 pressures Houston’s ceiling, but should they stand those tests, the rest
on 246 snaps) will anchor Houston’s front seven. Replacing of the schedule is favorable towards Houston pushing for an-
Jones and Williams in the secondary will be no small task, but other conference championship game appearance.

No. 46 Appalachian State Mountaineers

448 NCAA TOP 50

Appalachian State has a reputation for consistency, and it’s Peoples (926 yards) both averaged over 5.5 yards per carry
telling that last year’s four losses were tied for their most in while taking a combined 365 rushes last year, and behind an
a season since 2015—though only because of a narrow de- offensive line that boasts four returning starters, they’ll make
feat in the Sun Belt Championship Game and their first bowl up a daunting ground attack.
loss in seven FBS postseason trips. 2021 was, on the whole, Defensive end could be a concern for Appalachian State, as
another successful season for the Mountaineers, whose only experience is extremely lacking on the line following the loss-
conference losses came against Miami, Louisiana, and West- es of Demetrius Taylor (24 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss) and
ern Kentucky. The summit of the Sun Belt is getting more Caleb Spurlin (35 tackles, 4 tackles for loss). The linebacker
crowded with Coastal Carolina’s ascent and the addition of corps loses Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year D’Marco
several new members, but Appalachian State shouldn’t have Jackson (119 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 5 pass breakups) and
trouble remaining near the top. TD Roof (67 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions), but
Chase Brice, who threw 19 touchdowns and 19 intercep- there are still some solid returns in this group. Trey Cobb (72
tions in his three seasons at Clemson and Duke, found a home tackles, 3 interceptions, 4 pass breakups) steps into Jackson’s
in Boone, as he averaged 8.6 yards per attempt and tossed 27 shoes in the heart of the defense, while Nick Hampton (the
touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year. Now the Moun- team leader with 17.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks) and Bren-
taineers need him to lead during a transition at receiver, as dan Harrington (4 interceptions and 6 pass breakups in 2020)
their trio of senior wideouts—Corey Sutton, Thomas Hen- return on the outside. Steven Jones Jr. is easily the best return-
nigan, and Malik Williams, who accounted for 68% of the ing player on the defense, with 46 tackles, 5 interceptions, and
team’s receptions and 73% of its receiving yardage—are all 8 pass breakups last year, though shoulder surgery held him
gone. Christian Wells (243 yards), tight end Henry Pearson out of spring ball. Ryan Huff (2 interceptions), Nicholas Ross
(153 yards), and SMU transfer Tyler Page (422 yards) could (4 pass breakups), and Ronald Clarke (33 tackles) round out
be interesting options through the air. The rushing depth a secondary that’s looking to reclaim its nation-leading form
should help matters: Nate Noel (1,128 yards) and Camerun from 2020.

No. 47 Air Force Falcons

In their third game of the season, Air Force gave up 49 points pieces this team has will be the focus in 2022.
to a Utah State team that would eventually win the Mountain Air Force passed less than any other team in the nation,
West. In their third-to-last game, they allowed 39 in three over- but when they did, Haaziq Daniels (11.4 yards per attempt,
times to a Nevada team led by much-lauded gunslinger Car- 7 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) served well under center. He
son Strong. Between those outings, they strung together seven also added 734 yards on the ground, second on the team be-
straight games in which they allowed 21 points or fewer. That hind Brad Roberts (1,356 yards). Most of the offensive line
was tied for the second-longest streak in football last year, trail- also returns, a welcome change from the complete overhaul
ing only Georgia—but the Falcons managed to lose two of the Falcons underwent after 2020. When Daniels and Roberts
those games back-to-back, one of only five teams in FBS that are healthy, the offense should be solid, but both underwent
lost such sterling defensive efforts twice in a row. Those two knee surgery in January, and their early-season availability is
losses coincided with Air Force’s worst offensive performances uncertain. Other returners who could see more time if one or
of the season, and while that was somewhat excused by one both players are out include DeAndre Hughes (510 yards),
of the opponents being defensive superpower San Diego State, Emmanuel Michel (427 yards), and Omar Fattah (220 yards).
it was also emblematic of how the Falcons’ season felt like a Brandon Lewis, whose 619 yards through the air were nearly
missed opportunity despite a 10-3 record. Putting together the triple that of any other Air Force receiver, is the one major
 NCAA TOP 50 449

offensive loss, though Micah Davis and Dave Kinamon (362 loss) at tackle. Vince Sanford (59 tackles, 17 tackles for loss,
receiving yards and 525 rushing yards combined) give the 3 pass breakups, 4 forced fumbles) emerged as a superstar at
Falcons options at the position. linebacker last year, and the depth around him should be great.
Jordan Jackson (39 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) was taken in Tre’ Bugg (56 tackles, 2 interceptions, 10 pass breakups) and
the sixth round of the NFL draft, the highest an Air Force play- Corvan Taylor (60 tackles, 3 interceptions, 4 pass breakups)
er has gone since 1997; he’s a major loss for the line, which will be missed in the secondary, but Trey Taylor (62 tackles, 5
does return Christopher Herrera (44 tackles, 7.5 tackles for pass breakups) is a steadying force in the backfield.

No. 48 Southern Methodist Mustangs

The momentum from a team’s first 10-win season in 35 but the other starters—Danny Gray (803 yards) and Reggie
years is bound to last a while, and SMU hasn’t been bad Roberson Jr. (625 yards)—both went pro. To bolster depth in
since that superb 2019 campaign, but they have relaxed into a the wideout corps, the Mustangs reloaded in the transfer por-
slightly lower plateau. Their 15-7 record in the last two years tal, adding Jake Bailey (714 yards at Rice) and Beau Corrales
has been a bit more pedestrian, and they’ve seen Cincinnati (1,176 career yards in 28 games at North Carolina). The of-
and Houston take the clear lead of the AAC lately. Strong fensive line was roughly average last year and adds a pair of
starts have given way to late-season struggles in the last three Power 5 transfers.
years—the Mustangs have gone from 8-0 to 10-3, from 5-0 The defensive line should be a strength, with DeVere Lev-
to 7-3, and from 7-0 to 8-4—so while first-time head coach elston (38 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss), Elijah Chatman (40
Rhett Lashlee steps into a good situation, there is some work tackles, 9 tackles for loss), and Turner Coxe (36 tackles, 7
to do. All the pieces are there for SMU to become a confer- tackles for loss) all back. Linebackers Jimmy Phillips Jr.
ence leader, though, and the final steps of a long and impres- (60 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss), Gary Wiley (42 tackles, 9
sive program build begin this year. tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups), and Isaac Slade-Matautia
After getting stuck behind Oklahoma’s carousel of elite (31 tackles, 2 interceptions) add to a defense that should be
quarterbacks, Tanner Mordecai finally got a chance to start great up front. The secondary struggled mightily last year,
in 2021 for the Mustangs and simply dazzled. The redshirt giving up 8.4 yards per attempt (110th in FBS) and 284
junior averaged 8.0 yards per attempt in a pass-happy offense, passing yards per game (125th). The group does lose Del-
tossing 39 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions while lead- ano Robinson (78 tackles) and Trevor Denbow (40 tackles,
ing SMU to the top 10 in points per game. At running back, 2 interceptions), but tons of key contributors return: Jahari
workhorse Tre Siggers (727 yards) and short-yardage rusher Rogers, Bryan Massey, Bryce McMorris, Chace Cromartie,
Tyler Lavine (257 yards) return, but former starter Ulysses and Ar’mani Johnson combined for 130 tackles and 21 pass
Bentley IV (610 yards) transferred out. As for receiver, Ra- breakups last year, and they’ll look to improve on last sea-
shee Rice (670 yards) led the team in receptions and is back, son’s performance in 2022.
450 NCAA TOP 50

No. 49 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Joey McGuire has never coached or coordinated in college and SaRodorick Thompson (500 yards) returning to lead the
football—an extreme rarity for a first-time Power 5 coach— way. The only worry there is the loss of three starting line-
but he’s a sensible hire for Texas Tech in a state where lo- men, though the Raiders added an influx of transfer talent to
cal ties and recruiting are key. The longtime Cedar Hill High address that turnover.
School coach was a key part of Baylor’s success over the last The defense had some excellent games last year, but it sur-
five years, and in addition to early success on the recruiting rendered over 50 points on three occasions—twice to in-state
trail, he’s also brought in one of the best coordinators in the rivals who finished 5-7. Still, there’s plenty to build on: the
nation in Western Kentucky’s Zach Kittley. Optimism is high Raiders opened the season by allowing only 21 to Houston
in Lubbock but keeping up the positive momentum after a and ended it by giving up just 27 and 7 to Baylor and Missis-
step forward in 2021 (under Matt Wells, who was fired after a sippi State. A sterling defensive line led the group and returns
mid-season slump, and Sonny Cumbie) will be key. all its starters: Tyree Wilson (38 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss),
Three quarterbacks took the reins for the Red Raiders last Tony Bradford Jr. (32 tackles, 8 tackles for loss), and Jaylon
year, and two return: Donovan Smith (139 passes, 8.5 yards Hutchings (47 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss). But beyond that
per attempt, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions) and Tyler Shough excellent group, there are plenty of losses. Colin Schooler
(92 passes, 9.5 yards per attempt, 6 touchdowns, 3 intercep- (106 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 5 pass breakups) wrapped
tions). Adding Kittley to coach the position could lead to new up a five-year, 482-tackle career, and with Riko Jeffers (72
heights—his last protégé, Bailey Zappe, set single-season re- tackles, 3 pass breakups) also gone, Krishon Merriweather (52
cords for passing yards and touchdowns in 2021. The losses tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss) will need to take a big step up and
at receiver throw a wrench into the hopes of immediate im- lead the linebacker corps. The secondary is in better shape,
provement, as Erik Ezukanma (705 yards) went pro and Kay- though it bids farewell to Eric Monroe (83 tackles, 2 intercep-
lon Geiger (533 yards) also departed. Myles Price (523 yards) tions) and Damarcus Fields (50 tackles, 9 pass breakups). In
leads the remaining wideouts, and while there are some in- 2022, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (62 tackles, 3 interceptions,
triguing options at the position, youth and inexperience could 10 pass breakups), Rayshad Williams (38 tackles, 10 pass
hold the passing attack back. Texas Tech will have a good breakups), and Reggie Pearson Jr. (54 tackles, 3 pass break-
run game to lean on, though, with Tahj Brooks (568 yards) ups) will lead the backfield.
 NCAA TOP 50 451

No. 50 Washington Huskies

Preseason polls always look strange in retrospect, and the Both of the everyday starters at receiver, Jalen McMillan (470
2021 edition is no exception. Iowa State and North Caroli- yards) and Rome Odunze (415 yards), are back, though only
na opened in the top 10 and combined for a 13-13 record; one of the three players who served in a tertiary role returns
other odd teams that started the season ranked included USC (Taj Davis, who had 329 yards). The rushing attack will be
(started No. 15, finished 4-8), Indiana (started No. 17, finished less of an emphasis under DeBoer, which should give Camer-
2-10), and Texas (started No. 21, finished 5-7). But Washing- on Davis (308 yards) and New Mexico transfer Aaron Dumas
ton—which began 2021 at No. 20—had the most immediate (658 yards as a freshman) an easier path to success.
downfall, losing to FCS Montana in Week 1 and finishing a The defensive line was a glaring problem for last year’s de-
catastrophic 4-8. It’s still difficult to understand how things fense, allowing 3.02 yards per carry up front (122nd in FBS),
went so wrong for Jimmy Lake, who was fired just 13 games largely because of its youth and size. The 2022 group should
into his tenure amid on-field struggles and off-field issues— be an improvement, although it’s been cobbled together in
the second-fastest firing in the Power 5 over the last decade, unusual fashion. Tuli Letuligasenoa (36 tackles, 6.5 tackles
behind only Nick Rolovich (less than a month prior and also for loss) led the line last year, Zion Tupuola-Fetui posted sev-
in the Evergreen State). Washington did reload well by bring- en sacks in a three-game 2020 but was injured for most of
ing in Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer, who led the 2021, and the sturdy Ulumoo Ale was converted from offen-
Bulldogs to a 10-3 season and a win over UCLA in his second sive guard this offseason. At linebacker, team-leading tack-
year, but he has a significant rebuild to undertake. ler Jackson Sirmon is a major loss, and Edefuan Ulofoshio
DeBoer brought in Michael Penix Jr. from Indiana, where he (51 tackles in six games) won’t be back from injury to start
coached the three-year starter as a freshman. That was perhaps the season. Carson Bruener broke out in Ulofoshio’s absence
Penix’s best year, as he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt with with 70 tackles in eight games, though, and Cam Bright ac-
10 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while totaling 119 rush- cumulated 177 tackles and 9.5 sacks in his career at Pitt. The
ing yards; since then, he’s averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt secondary loses first-rounder Trent McDuffie (35 tackles, 6
with 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and one rushing yard. pass breakups) and second-rounder Kyler Gordon (45 tackles,
It wouldn’t take much to improve on Dylan Morris, whose 2 interceptions, 7 pass breakups), but Alex Cook (46 tackles),
6.8 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions Asa Turner (34 tackles, 2 interceptions), and UC-Davis trans-
last year left much to be desired amid general offensive woes, fer Jordan Perryman (63 tackles, 12 pass breakups) are pieces
though it’s not certain that Penix will beat him at quarterback. it can build around.
 NCAA Win Projections
Projected Win Probabilities For ACC Teams
Overall Wins Conference Wins
ACC Atlantic 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Boston College - - - 1 6 17 26 28 16 5 1 - - - - 1 8 19 33 26 12 1
Clemson 5 21 31 25 12 5 1 - - - - - - 18 34 29 14 4 1 - - -
Florida State - 1 3 11 17 29 22 11 5 1 - - - - 3 13 26 30 18 9 1 -
Louisville - - 3 8 16 25 24 16 6 2 - - - - 3 13 20 27 23 12 2 -
NC State 1 7 15 27 25 17 6 2 - - - - - 2 9 24 31 23 9 2 - -
Syracuse - - - 1 5 11 22 28 21 10 2 - - - - 1 7 20 27 29 13 3
Wake Forest - 2 8 19 25 24 14 6 2 - - - - 1 5 13 28 31 15 6 1 -
ACC Coastal 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Duke - - - - - 1 5 14 21 29 21 7 2 - - - - 2 8 26 42 22
Georgia Tech - - - - - 1 3 11 21 31 27 6 - - - - 1 8 21 36 27 7
Miami - 4 14 25 28 20 7 2 - - - - - 1 11 23 32 22 9 2 - -
North Carolina - 1 3 9 20 28 22 11 5 1 - - - - 5 17 26 28 18 6 - -
Pittsburgh 2 9 18 28 24 12 6 1 - - - - - 6 21 31 24 15 3 - - -
Virginia - 1 3 12 23 24 21 11 4 1 - - - - 4 11 22 27 24 10 2 -
Virginia Tech - - 2 9 20 23 24 14 6 2 - - - - 1 10 19 32 24 11 3 -

Projected Win Probabilities For American Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
American 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Cincinnati 11 32 31 18 7 1 - - - - - - - 24 41 27 7 1 - - - -
East Carolina - - 1 2 7 18 25 24 15 6 2 - - - 2 6 19 28 25 13 7 -
Houston 2 9 22 25 23 12 5 1 1 - - - - 6 22 32 25 11 3 1 - -
Memphis - 2 6 17 24 23 15 10 3 - - - - 1 6 15 29 27 15 6 1 -
Navy - - - - - 1 8 18 25 27 17 4 - - - - 3 15 27 33 19 3
SMU - 2 7 19 23 23 15 7 3 1 - - - 1 8 19 29 25 13 4 1 -
South Florida - - - - 1 2 6 17 26 28 14 5 1 - - - 4 14 27 33 18 4
Temple - - - - - 1 3 14 23 28 22 8 1 - - - - 2 8 26 40 24
Tulane - - 1 4 10 21 26 21 12 4 1 - - - - 2 10 23 32 23 9 1
Tulsa - - 1 4 14 24 26 19 8 3 1 - - - 1 8 19 32 23 13 3 1
UCF 2 9 18 28 24 14 4 1 - - - - - 4 20 33 26 12 4 1 - -

Projected Win Probabilities For Big 12 Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
Big 12 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 9-0 8-1 7-2 6-3 5-4 4-5 3-6 2-7 1-8 0-9
Baylor - 3 9 20 28 22 13 4 1 - - - - 1 5 14 25 27 19 7 2 - -
Iowa State - 1 8 16 24 26 18 6 1 - - - - - 3 14 24 30 17 8 3 1 -
Kansas - - - - - - - 2 8 22 36 26 6 - - - - - - 2 12 36 39
Kansas State - 2 6 19 26 24 15 6 2 - - - - - 3 11 25 27 21 9 4 - -
Oklahoma 4 16 28 27 15 7 2 1 - - - - - 7 23 30 25 12 3 - - - -
Oklahoma State 1 6 15 28 25 16 7 2 - - - - - 1 9 21 30 21 12 5 1 - -
TCU - - - 4 11 18 25 23 14 4 1 - - - 1 2 8 18 27 27 13 4 -
Texas - 1 5 14 25 25 18 9 3 - - - - 1 5 14 26 29 16 7 2 - -
Texas Tech - - 1 3 9 16 25 26 12 6 2 - - - - 2 9 21 29 26 10 3 2
West Virginia - - - 1 3 8 19 25 25 14 5 - - - - 1 3 12 22 31 22 8 -

452
 NCAA WIN PROJECTIONS 453

Projected Win Probabilities For Big Ten Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
Big Ten East 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 9-0 8-1 7-2 6-3 5-4 4-5 3-6 2-7 1-8 0-9
Indiana - - - - 1 3 10 21 29 23 11 2 - - - - 1 4 13 26 34 18 -
Maryland - - - 2 6 14 28 26 15 7 2 - - - - - 3 14 27 30 19 6 1
Michigan 4 20 34 29 10 2 1 - - - - - - 3 24 34 25 11 3 - - - -
Michigan State - 1 5 16 23 26 18 10 1 - - - - - 2 10 19 31 24 11 3 - 1
Ohio State 20 39 25 12 3 1 - - - - - - - 30 39 22 8 1 - - - - -
Penn State - 3 11 23 28 21 10 3 1 - - - - 1 7 22 30 26 10 3 1 - -
Rutgers - - - - - 1 6 15 30 31 14 3 - - - - - - 5 15 32 35 23
Big Ten West 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 9-0 8-1 7-2 6-3 5-4 4-5 3-6 2-7 1-8 0-9
Illinois - - - - 1 4 14 23 27 21 8 2 - - - - 1 5 12 23 31 22 5
Iowa - 2 7 16 28 25 15 6 1 - - - - 1 2 10 21 30 21 11 4 - -
Minnesota - 3 11 22 27 23 10 4 - - - - - - 4 12 24 30 21 7 2 - -
Nebraska - 1 4 12 25 25 21 10 2 - - - - - 2 10 21 28 24 12 3 - -
Northwestern - - - - - 2 6 16 33 27 13 3 - - - - - - 4 13 33 35 -
Purdue - 3 8 18 25 25 14 5 2 - - - - 1 5 13 26 27 17 9 2 - -
Wisconsin 1 9 23 30 21 11 4 1 - - - - - 2 12 24 30 21 9 2 - - -

Projected Win Probabilities For Conference USA Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
Conference USA 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Charlotte - - - - 1 3 13 22 28 19 10 3 1 - - 2 10 22 30 26 9 1
Florida Atlantic - - 2 7 15 24 27 15 8 2 - - - - 6 17 32 25 15 4 1 -
Florida International - - - - 1 3 10 15 27 25 14 5 - - - - 1 6 20 30 29 14
Louisiana Tech - - - 1 4 12 21 26 21 12 2 1 - - 1 8 20 29 26 13 3 -
Middle Tennessee - - - 4 9 17 26 23 14 6 1 - - - 2 9 20 29 24 12 4 -
North Texas - - 1 5 14 23 26 16 10 4 1 - - - 3 12 25 31 21 6 2 -
Rice - - - - - - 2 7 16 25 31 16 3 - - - 1 6 16 35 31 11
UAB 1 5 15 25 26 16 9 3 - - - - - 6 22 31 24 14 3 - - -
UTEP - - - 2 7 14 23 25 17 9 2 1 - - 2 8 20 30 24 12 4 -
UTSA - 2 9 20 27 24 12 5 1 - - - - 5 22 30 26 14 3 - - -
Western Kentucky* 1 4 14 24 26 17 10 3 1 - - - - 8 21 31 25 12 3 - - -
*Western Kentucky will play 13 regular season games; for projected overall records, 12-0 means 13-0, 11-1 means 12-1, etc.

Projected Win Probabilities For Independent Teams

Overall Wins
Independents 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12
Army 1 6 20 29 27 12 4 1 - - - - -
BYU - 4 12 21 25 22 11 4 1 - - - -
Connecticut - - - - - - - 1 7 22 36 27 7
Liberty - 4 12 23 29 21 9 2 - - - - -
Massachusetts - - - - - - 1 2 14 25 32 21 5
Notre Dame 2 15 28 29 18 6 2 - - - - - -
New Mexico State - - - - - 1 2 8 20 28 27 11 3
454 NCAA WIN PROJECTIONS

Projected Win Probabilities For MAC Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
MAC East 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Akron - - - - - - - 2 9 21 33 25 10 - - - - 4 14 31 32 19
Bowling Green - - - - - 3 9 20 28 24 12 4 - - - 2 10 19 30 26 12 1
Buffalo - - 1 5 11 22 26 20 11 3 1 - - 1 3 10 22 31 23 9 1 -
Kent State - - - 1 2 8 17 28 25 14 4 1 - - 1 8 18 27 29 13 4 -
Miami (OH) - 1 4 13 23 28 18 9 3 1 - - - 5 16 31 27 15 5 1 - -
Ohio - - - 2 6 13 25 24 17 10 2 1 - - 3 11 22 32 21 9 2 -
MAC West 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Ball State - - - - 3 9 16 26 23 15 6 2 - - - 3 8 18 27 26 15 3
Central Michigan - - 1 5 16 25 26 16 9 2 - - - 1 6 16 31 27 14 4 1 -
Eastern Michigan - - 1 5 13 19 24 21 11 5 1 - - - 2 10 23 27 24 10 4 -
Northern Illinois - - 1 5 15 22 27 20 7 3 - - - 1 5 16 28 26 16 7 1 -
Toledo - 4 18 31 25 15 6 1 - - - - - 9 26 34 21 8 2 - - -
Western Michigan - - 1 6 12 22 22 20 11 5 1 - - 1 5 16 25 27 19 6 1 -

Projected Win Probabilities For MWC Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
MWC Mountain 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Air Force 3 10 22 29 22 10 3 1 - - - - - 5 19 35 26 11 3 1 - -
Boise State 3 12 25 28 18 10 3 1 - - - - - 12 28 34 19 6 1 - - -
Colorado State - - - 2 7 16 30 24 14 5 2 - - - 1 8 21 32 23 11 3 1
New Mexico - - - - - - 3 7 18 29 27 13 3 - - - - 1 7 26 39 27
Utah State - - 1 7 18 29 25 15 4 1 - - - 1 6 18 30 25 15 4 1 -
Wyoming - - - 1 6 15 21 26 19 9 3 - - - 1 6 15 28 27 16 6 1
MWC West 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Fresno State 4 14 29 27 17 7 2 - - - - - - 10 32 34 17 6 1 - - -
Hawaii* - - - - 1 3 8 15 27 22 16 7 1 - - 1 5 16 26 30 19 3
Nevada - - - 2 8 16 28 23 16 6 1 - - - 1 3 7 24 30 24 9 2
San Diego State - 1 7 19 27 26 13 6 1 - - - - 2 10 24 31 24 7 2 - -
San Jose State - - 1 3 9 16 27 25 12 5 2 - - - 1 6 15 27 27 18 5 1
UNLV - - - - 1 4 12 21 26 23 9 4 - - - 1 6 17 31 27 15 3
*Hawaii will play 13 regular season games; for projected overall records, 12-0 means 13-0, 11-1 means 12-1, etc.

Projected Win Probabilities For Pac-12 Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
Pac 12 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 9-0 8-1 7-2 6-3 5-4 4-5 3-6 2-7 1-8
Arizona - - - - - 1 6 12 25 29 19 7 1 - - - 1 4 10 23 31 22
Arizona State - 3 12 20 26 19 14 5 1 - - - - 1 8 21 27 22 15 5 1 -
California - - 1 5 11 19 25 22 12 4 1 - - - 1 5 13 25 27 19 8 2
Colorado - - - - - 1 3 11 20 27 25 11 2 - - - 1 5 13 26 30 20
Oregon - 2 9 22 27 22 12 4 2 - - - - 2 12 25 28 19 10 3 1 -
Oregon State - - 2 5 11 21 25 21 11 3 1 - - - 1 6 17 26 26 18 5 1
Stanford - - - 1 3 8 19 23 24 16 5 1 - - - 1 4 13 23 27 21 9
UCLA 1 3 15 24 26 19 9 3 - - - - - 1 6 12 28 28 16 7 2 -
USC - - 1 4 11 23 25 20 11 4 1 - - - 1 5 15 26 26 19 6 2
Utah 3 16 24 27 19 8 2 1 - - - - - 8 24 32 25 8 3 - - -
Washington - 1 4 15 24 25 18 9 3 1 - - - - 4 11 20 26 23 11 4 1
Washington State - - 2 5 14 21 23 21 10 3 1 - - - 1 4 14 21 29 20 8 3
 NCAA WIN PROJECTIONS 455

Projected Win Probabilities For SEC Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
SEC East 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Florida - - 5 13 24 27 19 9 3 - - - - - 3 14 30 31 16 5 1 -
Georgia 42 39 16 3 - - - - - - - - - 45 39 13 3 - - - - -
Kentucky - 2 10 21 29 22 13 2 1 - - - - - 4 16 27 32 15 5 1 -
Missouri - - - 3 8 21 29 25 11 3 - - - - - 1 5 18 31 29 14 2
South Carolina - - - 3 8 18 28 25 13 4 1 - - - - 2 9 23 31 25 9 1
Tennessee - 1 8 26 26 21 14 3 1 - - - - - 2 15 30 30 17 5 1 -
Vanderbilt - - - - - - 1 2 10 25 32 25 5 - - - - - 1 8 37 54
SEC West 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Alabama 24 39 25 10 2 - - - - - - - - 30 38 21 10 1 - - - -
Arkansas - - 1 5 12 23 22 22 11 3 1 - - - 1 6 16 28 27 15 6 1
Auburn - - 3 11 22 29 20 10 4 1 - - - - 2 8 21 32 23 11 3 -
LSU - - 1 6 13 25 27 19 7 2 - - - - 1 4 9 24 27 22 11 2
Mississippi State - - 3 8 23 29 22 10 4 1 - - - - 1 3 15 25 26 20 9 1
Ole Miss - 2 9 20 28 22 14 4 1 - - - - - 3 11 25 29 22 8 2 -
Texas A&M 1 4 12 23 30 18 8 3 1 - - - - 1 6 20 28 26 14 4 1 -

Projected Win Probabilities For Sun Belt Teams

Overall Wins Conference Wins
Sun Belt East 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Appalachian State 1 8 24 29 24 10 3 1 - - - - - 10 29 36 17 6 2 - - -
Coastal Carolina 1 5 16 25 27 17 7 1 1 - - - - 4 17 31 31 13 3 1 - -
Georgia Southern - - - - 1 6 14 25 25 18 8 3 - - - 1 7 18 28 28 15 3
Georgia State - - 2 5 16 26 24 16 8 3 - - - 1 6 18 33 27 11 4 - -
James Madison* - - - - 1 4 12 25 31 19 7 1 - - - - 4 12 25 32 22 5
Marshall - 4 15 25 28 16 8 3 1 - - - - 3 15 29 29 15 7 2 - -
Old Dominion - - - 1 2 6 14 26 27 15 7 2 - - - 5 15 26 29 18 7 -
Sun Belt West 12-0 11-1 10-2 9-3 8-4 7-5 6-6 5-7 4-8 3-9 2-10 1-11 0-12 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Arkansas State - - - 1 3 11 21 26 23 11 4 - - - 1 4 16 25 29 17 7 1
Louisiana 2 13 27 26 20 9 3 - - - - - - 9 30 34 19 6 2 - - -
South Alabama - - - 3 8 21 23 22 14 7 2 - - - 2 8 20 31 25 10 3 1
Southern Mississippi - - - 1 3 10 20 24 23 13 5 1 - - 1 6 16 26 28 18 5 -
Texas State - - - - 2 4 12 22 25 21 11 3 - - - 1 7 17 27 25 18 5
Troy - - 1 2 9 17 25 26 14 5 1 - - - 2 12 26 32 20 7 1 -
UL Monroe - - - - - - 3 9 22 29 23 12 2 - - 1 3 13 23 33 21 6
*James Madison will play 11 regular season games; for projected overall records, 12-0 means 11-0, 11-1 means 10-1, etc.
 NCAA F+ Projections
F+: Projected overall F/+ CFP: Odds of making College Football Playoff

OF+: Projected offensive F/+ with rank U: Odds of going undefeated

DF+: Projected defensive F/+ with rank 10+: Odds of winning 10 or more games

MW: Mean wins 6+: Odds of winning 6 or more games

CW: Mean conference wins SOS: Strength of Schedule (number of losses an elite team
would have against this schedule) and rank
Div: Odds of winning division
CSOS: Conference strength of schedule with rank
Conf: Odds of winning conference

NCAA Teams, No. 1 to No. 131

Rk Team F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk MW CMW Div Conf CFP U 10+ 6+ SOS Rk CSOS Rk
1 Georgia 2.59 2.16 3 2.44 1 11.1 7.3 90% 45% 58% 42% 97% 100% 1.72 40 1.49 36
2 Alabama 2.43 2.44 2 1.97 4 10.7 6.9 78% 39% 49% 24% 87% 100% 2.03 23 1.75 23
3 Ohio State 2.38 3.00 1 1.13 16 10.6 7.9 70% 47% 46% 20% 85% 100% 2.00 25 1.62 30
4 Michigan 1.66 1.59 5 1.13 15 9.7 6.8 19% 13% 11% 4% 58% 100% 1.70 41 1.67 25
5 Clemson 1.60 0.53 45 2.29 2 9.8 6.4 64% 32% 22% 5% 58% 100% 1.50 51 0.99 53
6 Notre Dame 1.54 1.15 13 1.50 8 9.4 - - - 2% 2% 46% 100% 1.74 36 - -
7 Oklahoma 1.50 1.93 4 0.58 40 9.3 6.7 - 42% 27% 4% 47% 99% 1.67 44 1.44 39
8 Wisconsin 1.41 0.37 54 2.13 3 8.9 6.0 40% 13% 10% 1% 33% 99% 1.95 29 1.89 17
9 Texas A&M 1.33 0.63 39 1.65 7 8.1 4.6 9% 4% 4% 1% 17% 97% 2.40 9 2.13 8
10 Utah 1.26 1.19 10 1.00 20 9.3 6.9 - 41% 26% 3% 43% 99% 1.25 62 0.93 59
11 Penn State 1.22 0.38 53 1.71 6 8.2 5.8 7% 5% 4% 0% 15% 97% 2.12 19 1.79 22
12 Cincinnati 1.21 0.92 19 1.22 12 10.1 6.8 - 54% 2% 11% 74% 100% 0.72 99 0.46 78
13 Oklahoma State 1.14 0.68 33 1.35 9 8.5 5.9 - 18% 10% 1% 22% 98% 1.68 42 1.54 33
14 Auburn 1.11 0.71 32 1.27 10 7.0 3.8 4% 2% 2% 0% 4% 86% 2.89 1 2.59 2
15 Tennessee 1.06 1.41 6 0.40 48 7.8 4.4 3% 1% 1% 0% 9% 96% 2.39 10 2.10 9
16 Ole Miss 1.02 1.19 12 0.63 37 7.8 4.2 5% 2% 2% 0% 11% 95% 2.05 21 2.02 13
17 Iowa 1.01 -0.25 80 1.91 5 7.5 5.0 13% 4% 3% 0% 8% 93% 2.22 16 2.05 10
18 Kentucky 0.99 0.90 20 0.82 26 7.9 4.4 4% 2% 2% 0% 13% 97% 2.01 24 1.87 19
19 Mississippi State 0.99 0.89 21 1.11 17 6.9 3.3 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 84% 2.79 2 2.73 1
20 Baylor 0.96 0.57 42 1.10 18 7.9 5.4 - 11% 6% 0% 13% 95% 1.89 31 1.64 29
21 NC State 0.96 0.44 51 1.22 13 8.5 5.0 14% 7% 4% 1% 23% 98% 1.37 59 1.23 45
22 Pittsburgh 0.95 0.71 30 0.89 22 8.8 5.7 46% 23% 14% 2% 29% 99% 1.12 70 0.85 62
23 Michigan State 0.93 0.57 41 0.99 21 7.4 4.9 3% 2% 1% 0% 6% 89% 2.19 17 2.02 12
24 Florida 0.91 0.78 26 0.84 23 7.3 4.3 3% 1% 1% 0% 5% 88% 2.29 13 1.82 20
25 Texas 0.91 0.99 18 0.48 43 7.3 5.3 - 10% 6% 0% 6% 88% 2.16 18 1.54 32
26 Minnesota 0.91 0.49 46 1.14 14 8.1 5.2 17% 6% 4% 0% 15% 96% 1.68 43 1.66 28
27 Purdue 0.86 0.67 36 0.83 25 7.8 5.3 18% 6% 4% 0% 11% 93% 1.59 47 1.49 37
28 Oregon 0.83 1.11 14 0.48 42 7.7 6.1 - 20% 11% 0% 12% 94% 1.66 45 0.83 64
29 BYU 0.82 1.32 7 0.20 55 8.0 - - - 0% 0% 17% 95% 1.40 58 - -
30 Iowa State 0.82 0.66 38 0.79 29 7.5 5.2 - 8% 5% 0% 10% 92% 1.81 34 1.51 35
31 Kansas State 0.80 0.67 37 0.79 30 7.5 5.0 - 7% 4% 0% 8% 92% 1.74 38 1.67 26
32 Miami 0.80 0.68 34 0.76 32 8.1 5.0 24% 12% 7% 0% 18% 97% 1.51 50 1.12 48
33 LSU 0.76 0.56 43 0.80 28 6.3 3.1 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 71% 2.57 4 2.35 4
34 Arkansas 0.75 0.73 29 0.64 36 6.1 3.5 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 63% 2.55 5 2.03 11
35 Boise State 0.74 0.10 62 1.01 19 9.1 6.1 50% 25% 0% 3% 41% 99% 0.69 106 0.38 87

456
 NCAA F/+ PROJECTIONS 457
Rk Team F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk MW CMW Div Conf CFP U 10+ 6+ SOS Rk CSOS Rk
36 Nebraska 0.69 0.67 35 0.71 33 7.2 4.9 12% 4% 3% 0% 5% 87% 1.84 33 1.53 34
37 Arizona State 0.65 0.45 49 0.77 31 7.9 5.6 - 13% 8% 0% 15% 94% 1.18 65 0.85 61
38 Florida State 0.61 0.29 56 0.81 27 6.8 4.2 6% 3% 2% 0% 3% 82% 1.72 39 1.30 43
39 Wake Forest 0.60 1.29 8 -0.30 76 7.7 4.4 8% 4% 2% 0% 10% 92% 1.28 61 1.18 47
40 UCF 0.60 0.56 44 0.64 35 8.7 5.6 - 16% 1% 2% 29% 99% 0.71 102 0.57 72
41 Louisville 0.58 1.06 16 -0.08 69 6.6 4.0 6% 3% 2% 0% 3% 75% 1.86 32 1.36 41
42 Fresno State 0.54 0.48 47 0.42 45 9.4 6.2 67% 34% 0% 4% 47% 100% 0.53 118 0.34 92
43 UCLA 0.53 1.24 9 -0.34 79 8.1 5.3 - 9% 5% 1% 18% 97% 1.00 73 0.98 56
44 North Carolina 0.50 1.09 15 -0.26 75 6.9 4.5 14% 7% 4% 0% 3% 82% 1.55 48 1.01 51
45 Houston 0.48 0.28 57 0.58 39 8.7 5.7 - 16% 1% 2% 33% 98% 0.62 110 0.36 91
46 Appalachian State 0.46 0.31 55 0.48 44 8.9 6.2 44% 22% 0% 1% 32% 99% 0.76 93 0.29 95
47 Air Force 0.42 0.62 40 0.15 60 9.0 5.7 33% 17% 0% 3% 35% 99% 0.47 126 0.37 90
48 SMU 0.39 0.87 23 -0.18 72 7.5 4.7 - 6% 0% 0% 10% 90% 0.94 79 0.72 69
49 Texas Tech 0.37 0.78 27 -0.20 74 5.8 4.0 - 1% 1% 0% 1% 54% 2.05 22 1.67 27
50 Washington 0.36 -0.10 74 0.84 24 7.2 5.0 - 6% 3% 0% 5% 87% 1.15 66 0.96 57
51 South Carolina 0.31 -0.12 75 0.59 38 5.7 3.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 58% 2.40 8 1.94 16
52 TCU 0.29 0.85 24 -0.43 86 5.9 3.8 - 2% 1% 0% 0% 58% 1.76 35 1.59 31
53 Oregon State 0.24 0.88 22 -0.57 99 6.2 4.4 - 3% 2% 0% 2% 63% 1.44 54 1.10 49
54 Maryland 0.23 0.83 25 -0.43 85 5.5 3.3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 2.28 14 2.17 7
55 Virginia 0.21 1.19 11 -0.81 105 7.0 4.1 10% 5% 3% 0% 5% 84% 0.92 81 0.81 66
56 Missouri 0.19 0.41 52 -0.20 73 5.8 2.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 61% 2.24 15 1.98 15
57 Washington State 0.17 -0.03 68 0.42 46 6.1 4.2 - 2% 1% 0% 2% 64% 1.40 57 1.00 52
58 Marshall 0.17 0.01 66 0.30 50 8.2 5.3 21% 10% 0% 0% 19% 97% 0.68 107 0.25 98
59 San Diego State 0.16 -1.08 113 1.27 11 7.7 5.1 24% 12% 0% 0% 8% 92% 0.97 75 0.56 74
60 USC 0.16 0.73 28 -0.53 94 6.0 4.4 - 3% 2% 0% 2% 64% 1.42 56 0.98 55
61 Western Kentucky 0.16 0.71 31 -0.44 87 9.1 5.8 - 29% 0% 1% 43% 99% 0.60 112 0.21 106
62 Virginia Tech 0.15 -0.24 79 0.42 47 6.7 3.9 6% 3% 2% 0% 2% 78% 1.13 69 0.99 54
63 Army 0.14 0.19 58 0.12 61 8.7 - - - 0% 1% 27% 99% 0.53 119 - -
64 Toledo 0.14 -0.27 81 0.56 41 8.4 6.0 53% 26% 0% 0% 22% 99% 0.89 83 0.10 122
65 UAB 0.14 0.04 64 0.26 52 8.2 5.7 - 28% 0% 1% 21% 97% 0.55 114 0.22 102
66 Louisiana 0.12 0.09 63 0.10 62 9.1 6.1 71% 35% 0% 2% 43% 100% 0.41 128 0.19 111
67 Coastal Carolina 0.12 1.00 17 -0.87 107 8.3 5.6 24% 12% 0% 1% 21% 98% 0.50 123 0.31 94
68 Memphis 0.10 0.45 50 -0.14 71 7.4 4.5 - 4% 0% 0% 8% 88% 0.81 87 0.51 76
69 Syracuse 0.06 -0.15 78 0.27 51 5.2 2.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 1.98 27 1.48 38
70 UTSA 0.03 0.45 48 -0.39 84 7.7 5.7 - 25% 0% 0% 11% 94% 0.71 103 0.23 100
71 West Virginia 0.03 -0.04 70 0.18 57 4.8 3.1 - 1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 2.11 20 1.72 24
72 Liberty 0.03 0.16 61 -0.05 68 8.2 - - - 0% 0% 16% 98% 0.75 95 - -
73 California -0.02 -0.67 96 0.65 34 6.1 4.2 - 2% 1% 0% 1% 62% 1.21 64 0.77 67
74 Stanford -0.05 0.16 59 -0.34 78 4.6 3.2 - 1% 0% 0% 0% 32% 1.91 30 1.32 42
75 Boston College -0.10 -0.38 85 0.18 56 5.5 2.9 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 1.74 37 1.29 44
76 Tulsa -0.20 -0.42 87 0.17 59 6.2 3.8 - 1% 0% 0% 1% 70% 0.96 76 0.65 71
77 Indiana -0.22 -0.59 93 0.26 53 4.0 2.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 2.40 7 2.01 14
78 Tulane -0.23 0.16 60 -0.57 98 6.0 3.2 - 0% 0% 0% 1% 62% 1.11 71 0.85 63
79 Illinois -0.25 -0.86 101 0.31 49 4.3 2.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 1.96 28 1.88 18
80 Utah State -0.28 -0.06 71 -0.47 91 6.6 4.6 11% 5% 0% 0% 1% 80% 1.32 60 0.39 84
81 Georgia State -0.29 -0.29 83 -0.09 70 6.4 4.7 9% 4% 0% 0% 2% 74% 0.76 94 0.39 85
82 East Carolina -0.32 -0.14 76 -0.38 83 5.6 3.6 - 2% 0% 0% 1% 54% 1.14 68 0.69 70
83 Miami (OH) -0.33 -0.15 77 -0.45 88 7.1 5.4 55% 28% 0% 0% 4% 87% 0.69 104 0.09 123
84 Northwestern -0.44 -0.90 104 0.17 58 3.7 1.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 2.32 12 2.30 5
85 Rutgers -0.45 -1.16 116 0.25 54 3.6 1.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 2.35 11 2.26 6
86 Western Michigan -0.48 -0.09 73 -0.55 96 6.1 4.4 13% 7% 0% 0% 1% 64% 0.63 109 0.16 117
87 Florida Atlantic -0.55 -0.54 91 -0.36 81 6.4 4.6 - 6% 0% 0% 2% 74% 0.55 115 0.17 115
88 Colorado State -0.55 -0.97 107 0.02 66 5.6 3.9 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 55% 1.04 72 0.45 80
89 Northern Illinois -0.55 -0.04 69 -1.00 112 6.4 4.4 12% 6% 0% 0% 1% 71% 0.49 124 0.14 119
90 Central Michigan -0.55 -0.45 88 -0.57 101 6.3 4.7 13% 7% 0% 0% 1% 73% 0.86 84 0.19 110
458 NCAA F/+ PROJECTIONS
Rk Team F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk MW CMW Div Conf CFP U 10+ 6+ SOS Rk CSOS Rk
91 Colorado -0.56 -0.74 97 -0.31 77 3.0 2.4 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1.60 46 1.10 50
92 Wyoming -0.57 -1.04 109 -0.05 67 5.3 3.5 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 43% 0.79 89 0.48 77
93 Georgia Tech -0.58 -0.08 72 -1.01 113 3.2 2.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 2.49 6 1.38 40
94 North Texas -0.58 -0.51 90 -0.50 93 6.2 4.2 - 5% 0% 0% 1% 69% 0.58 113 0.37 88
95 Troy -0.61 -1.07 112 0.09 64 5.7 4.2 10% 5% 0% 0% 1% 55% 0.84 85 0.38 86
96 Nevada -0.65 -0.67 95 -0.49 92 5.6 3.1 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 54% 0.82 86 0.52 75
97 San Jose State -0.70 -1.22 118 0.05 65 5.7 3.5 4% 2% 0% 0% 1% 56% 0.74 98 0.40 83
98 Arizona -0.71 -0.64 94 -0.54 95 3.4 2.2 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 1.50 52 1.19 46
99 Middle Tennessee -0.73 -0.97 106 -0.36 80 5.8 3.9 - 3% 0% 0% 0% 56% 0.52 121 0.25 97
100 South Florida -0.73 -0.34 84 -1.06 115 3.7 2.5 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 1.43 55 0.81 65
101 Navy -0.74 -0.81 98 -0.37 82 3.7 2.4 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 1.52 49 0.90 60
102 Buffalo -0.78 -0.46 89 -0.92 108 6.1 4.1 15% 8% 0% 0% 2% 66% 0.37 130 0.13 120
103 Eastern Michigan -0.83 -0.27 82 -1.29 119 5.9 3.9 8% 4% 0% 0% 1% 61% 0.46 127 0.14 118
104 Old Dominion -0.86 -1.09 114 -0.56 97 4.4 3.3 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0.68 108 0.42 81
105 Ohio -0.90 -0.39 86 -1.17 117 5.4 4.1 15% 8% 0% 0% 0% 47% 0.72 100 0.13 121
106 Georgia Southern -0.96 -1.04 110 -0.67 103 4.4 2.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0.79 90 0.45 79
107 Louisiana Tech -0.97 -0.85 100 -0.70 104 5.2 3.8 - 2% 0% 0% 0% 39% 0.78 92 0.21 107
108 Southern Mississippi -0.99 -1.76 129 0.09 63 4.9 3.5 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0.55 116 0.22 103
109 South Alabama -1.00 -1.26 120 -0.45 89 5.6 3.9 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 55% 0.39 129 0.18 113
110 Kent State -1.02 0.03 65 -1.82 126 4.6 3.7 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% 28% 1.49 53 0.21 104
111 UTEP -1.05 -1.13 115 -0.57 100 5.3 3.8 - 2% 0% 0% 0% 45% 0.74 97 0.16 116
112 UNLV -1.07 -0.96 105 -0.85 106 4.0 2.7 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0.93 80 0.41 82
113 Vanderbilt -1.12 -0.85 99 -0.97 111 2.2 0.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2.61 3 2.46 3
114 Ball State -1.12 -1.01 108 -0.96 110 4.7 2.8 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 0.54 117 0.22 101
115 Hawaii -1.14 -0.88 103 -1.21 118 4.7 2.5 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 0.90 82 0.37 89
116 Duke -1.17 -1.06 111 -1.04 114 3.3 1.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0.99 74 0.94 58
117 Kansas -1.21 -0.59 92 -1.56 124 2.0 0.7 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2.00 26 1.82 21
118 Bowling Green -1.26 -1.63 127 -0.61 102 3.9 3.0 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 11% 0.71 101 0.19 112
119 Charlotte -1.29 -0.02 67 -2.29 130 4.2 3.0 - 1% 0% 0% 0% 18% 0.49 125 0.23 99
120 Arkansas State -1.29 -0.88 102 -1.44 123 5.0 3.4 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 36% 0.96 77 0.18 114
121 James Madison -1.40 -1.32 122 -1.08 116 3.3 2.3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0.53 120 0.32 93
122 Temple -1.48 -1.46 124 -0.92 109 3.2 1.2 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0.79 91 0.76 68
123 Texas State -1.50 -1.25 119 -1.36 122 4.1 2.6 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 18% 0.51 122 0.21 108
124 UL Monroe -1.55 -1.28 121 -1.34 121 3.0 2.3 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1.25 63 0.20 109
125 New Mexico -1.61 -2.39 131 -0.46 90 2.7 1.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0.81 88 0.56 73
126 Rice -1.63 -1.44 123 -1.29 120 2.6 1.8 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0.60 111 0.26 96
127 Florida International -1.77 -1.20 117 -1.91 127 3.8 1.7 - 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0.24 131 0.21 105
128 Connecticut -2.03 -1.96 130 -1.76 125 2.1 - - - 0% 0% 0% 0% 1.14 67 - -
129 New Mexico State -2.04 -1.61 126 -2.02 129 2.9 - - - 0% 0% 0% 3% 0.94 78 - -
130 Akron -2.06 -1.74 128 -1.97 128 2.0 1.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.75 96 0.09 124
131 Massachusetts -2.21 -1.54 125 -2.43 131 2.3 - - - 0% 0% 0% 1% 0.69 105 - -
 FO Rookie Projections
O ver the years, Football Outsiders has developed a number of methods for forecasting the NFL success of highly drafted
players at various positions. Here is a rundown of those methods and what they say about players drafted in 2022.

Quarterbacks: QBASE
In 2021, we introduced a new version of the QBASE (Quarterback Adjusted Stats and Experience) system which combines
the original work done by Andrew Healy with the functional mobility model developed by Jeremy Rosen and Alexandre Ol-
brecht.
QBASE v2.0 analyzes all rookie quarterbacks chosen among the top 100 picks of the NFL draft since 2004. It uses regres-
sion analysis to determine which factors helped predict their career TDYAR/A, or total DYAR per attempt. This combines both
passing and rushing value divided by total passes plus runs.
QBASE generates adjusted college performance as a composite of three college statistics: completion rate, rushing yards per
attempt, and passing touchdowns per completion. Statistics are adjusted based on strength of schedule and strength of team-
mates. The latter element gives credit based on the draft-pick value of offensive linemen and receivers drafted in the quarter-
back’s draft year as well as the projected draft position of younger teammates in 2023.
The measurement of past performance is then combined with two other factors: college experience and draft position. The
latter factor accounts for what scouts will see but a statistical projection system will not, including personality, leadership, and
projection of physical attributes to the next level.
QBASE also looks at the past performance of quarterbacks compared to their projection and, using 50,000 simulations, pro-
duces a range of potential outcomes for each prospect: Elite quarterback (over 1.5 TDYAR/A, or roughly 900 or more DYAR
in an average 16-game season); Upper Tier quarterback (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A); Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A); or
Bust (less than 0.0 TDYAR/A).
Here are QBASE projections for quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks of the 2022 NFL draft:

Player School Tm Rd Pick TDYAR/A Elite Upper Adequate Bust

Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh PIT 1 20 0.00 8% 16% 26% 50%
Desmond Ridder Cincinnati ATL 3 74 -0.22 5% 13% 23% 59%
Malik Willis Liberty TEN 3 86 -0.26 5% 12% 23% 60%
Matt Corral Mississippi CAR 3 94 -0.03 8% 16% 26% 51%

Running Backs: BackCAST

BackCAST is Football Outsiders’ metric for projecting the likelihood of success for running back prospects in the NFL draft.
Historically, a college running back attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level if he has a good size/speed combination,
gained a high average yards per carry, and represented a large percentage of his college team’s running attack. Criteria mea-
sured include:

• Weight and 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine. BackCAST uses pro day measurements for prospects that did not
run at the combine.
• Average yards per rush attempt, with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer career carries than an average
drafted running back.
• A measurement of how much each prospect’s team used him in the running game during his career relative to an average
drafted running back in the same year of eligibility.
• Prospect’s receiving yards per game in his college career.

BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an
“average” drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL. For example, a running back with a 50% BackCAST is
projected to gain 50% more yards than the “average” drafted running back. BackCAST also lists each running back’s “RecIn-
dex,” measuring whether the player is likely to be a ground-and-pound two-down back, more of a receiving back, or something
in between. The higher the RecIndex, the better the back is as a receiver.
Here are the BackCAST numbers for running backs chosen in the first three rounds of the 2022 draft, along with the top five
later-round picks and the top two undrafted free agents:

459
460 FO ROOKIE PROJECTIONS
Player School Team Rd Pick BackCAST RecIndex
Breece Hall Iowa State NYJ 2 36 149.1% 0.29
Kenneth Walker Michigan State SEA 2 41 54.4% -0.31
James Cook Georgia BUF 2 63 -45.7% 0.26
Rachaad White Arizona State TB 3 91 58.6% 1.12
Tyrion Davis-Price LSU SF 3 93 -27.2% -0.27
Brian Robinson Alabama WAS 3 98 -25.3% -0.23
Ty Allgieier BYU ATL 5 151 57.8% -0.08
Isaiah Spiller Texas A&M LAC 4 123 48.0% 0.14
Hassan Haskins Michigan TEN 4 131 30.0% -0.41
Sincere McCormick Texas-San Antonio LV UDFA 29.9% 0.14
Kennedy Brooks Oklahoma PHI UDFA 28.0% -0.23
Zamir White Georgia LV 4 122 13.3% -0.36
Keaontay Ingram USC ARI 6 201 7.4% 0.08

Edge Rushers: SackSEER

SackSEER is a method that projects sacks for edge rushers, including both 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends,
using the following criteria:

• An “explosion index” that measures the prospect’s scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in
pre-draft workouts.
• Sacks per game, adjusted for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college.
• Passes defensed per game.

SackSEER outputs two numbers. The first, SackSEER Rating, solely measures how high the prospect scores compared to
players of the past. The second, SackSEER Projection, represents a forecast of sacks for the player’s first five years in the NFL.
It synthesizes metrics with conventional wisdom by adjusting based on the player’s expected draft position (interestingly, not
his actual draft position) based on pre-draft analysis by ESPN’s Scouts Inc.
Here are the SackSEER numbers for edge rushers chosen in the first three rounds of the 2022 draft, along with the top three
later-round picks.

SackSEER SackSEER
Name School Team Rd Pick
Projection Rating
Travon Walker Georgia JAX 1 1 27.2 89.7%
Aidan Hutchinson Michigan DET 1 2 26.9 84.5%
Kayvon Thibodeux Oregon NYG 1 5 26.6 86.0%
Jermaine Johnson Florida State NYJ 1 26 23.7 70.0%
George Karlaftis Purdue KC 1 30 25.4 81.9%
Arnold Ebiketie Penn State ATL 2 38 17.8 72.0%
Boye Mafe Minnesota SEA 2 40 19.5 83.0%
David Ojabo Michigan BAL 2 45 25.1 78.4%
Josh Paschal Kentucky DET 2 46 3.1 42.7%
Sam Williams Mississippi DAL 2 56 12.1 81.7%
Drake Jackson USC SF 2 61 20.9 84.9%
Nik Bonitto Oklahoma DEN 2 64 17.7 76.7%
Alex Wright UAB CLE 3 78 3.6 45.3%
DeAngelo Malone W. Kentucky ATL 3 82 18.5 73.1%
Cameron Thomas San Diego State ARI 3 87 12.0 56.9%
Myjai Sanders Cincinnati ARI 3 100 10.2 10.6%
Amare Barno Virginia Tech CAR 6 189 16.5 81.5%
Isaiah Thomas Oklahoma CLE 7 223 8.7 64.0%
Jeffrey Gunter Coastal Carolina CIN 7 252 7.7 42.7%
 FO ROOKIE PROJECTIONS 461

Wide Receivers: Playmaker Score

Playmaker Score projects success for NFL wide receivers using the following criteria:

• The prospect’s peak season for receiving yards per team attempt and receiving touchdowns per team attempt.
• Differences between this prospect’s peak season and most recent season, to adjust for players who declined in their final
college year.
• Rushing attempts per game.
• A binary variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen.
• A factor that gives a bonus to wideouts who played on the same college team as other receivers who are projected to be
drafted.

Like SackSEER, Playmaker Score outputs two numbers. The first, Playmaker Score, represents a forecast of average receiv-
ing yards per year in the player’s first five seasons, synthesizing metrics with conventional wisdom by adjusting based on the
player’s expected draft position. The second, Playmaker Rating, solely measures how high the prospect scores compared to
players of the past.
Here are the Playmaker Score numbers for players chosen in the first three rounds of the 2022 draft, along with three later-
round picks and two undrafted free agents with high Playmaker Ratings. Christian Watson (Green Bay) is not listed because we
do not compute Playmaker Score for FCS players.

Playmaker Playmaker
Name School Team Rd Pick
Score Rating
Drake London USC ATL 1 8 513.7 63.5%
Garrett Wilson Ohio State NYJ 1 10 705.6 97.3%
Chris Olave Ohio State NO 1 11 616.5 83.1%
Jameson Williams Alabama DET 1 12 611.1 96.8%
Jahan Dotson Penn State WAS 1 16 424.5 54.8%
Treylon Burks Arkansas TEN 1 18 736.5 98.2%
Wan'Dale Robinson Kentucky NYG 2 43 432.0 94.8%
John Metchie Alabama HOU 2 44 416.1 82.7%
Tyquan Thornton Baylor NE 2 50 92.8 54.8%
George Pickens Georgia PIT 2 52 319.3 61.5%
Alec Pierce Cincinnati IND 2 53 238.7 36.6%
Skyy Moore W. Michigan KC 2 54 483.4 94.0%
Velus Jones Tennessee CHI 3 71 240.5 36.8%
Jalen Tolbert South Alabama DAL 3 88 325.0 64.0%
David Bell Purdue CLE 3 99 269.7 74.5%
Danny Gray SMU SF 3 105 99.8 20.2%
Kyle Phillips UCLA TEN 5 163 264.0 77.4%
Khalil Shakir Boise State BUF 5 148 366.5 75.8%
Kevin Austin Notre Dame JAX UDFA 201.6 70.2%
Erik Ezukanma Texas Tech MIA 4 125 133.7 64.2%
Slade Bolden Alabama BAL UDFA 83.9 57.9%
462 FO ROOKIE PROJECTIONS

Tight Ends: Travis

Introduced for the first time in 2022, the Travis system projects the average receiving yards per year in a tight end’s first
five seasons.
Criteria for Travis include:

• The player’s peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.
• 40-yard dash time, either at the combine or a player’s pro day.
• Age under 23 as of September of the player’s rookie year.
• Expected draft position (not actual draft position) based on pre-draft analysis by ESPN’s Scouts Inc.

Similar to Playmaker Score, Travis represents a forecast of average receiving yards per year in the player’s first five seasons.
Blocking is not considered.
Here are the Travis projections for tight ends chosen in the first five rounds of the 2022 NFL draft.

Name School Team Rd Pick Travis

Trey McBride Colorado State ARI 2 55 395
Jelani Woods Virginia IND 3 73 190
Greg Dulcich UCLA DEN 3 80 250
Jeremy Ruckert Ohio State NYJ 3 101 179
Cade Otton Washington TB 4 106 172
Daniel Bellinger San Diego State NYG 4 122 197
Charlie Kolar Iowa State BAL 4 128 164
Jake Ferguson Wisconsin DAL 4 129 116
Isaiah Likely Coastal Carolina BAL 4 139 231
Chigoziem Okonkwo Maryland TEN 4 143 118
Cole Turner Nevada WAS 5 149 154
Teagan Quitoriano Oregon State HOU 5 170 86
James Mitchell Virginia Tech DET 5 177 139
 Top 25 Prospects
E very year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the
NFL’s best and brightest young players … who have
barely played. Eighty percent of draft-day discussion is about
• Have not signed a contract extension (players who have
bounced around the league looking for the right spot,
however, still qualify for the list).
first-round picks, and 10% is about the players who should • Age 26 or younger as of September 1, 2022.
have been first-round picks but instead went in the second
round—particularly if they were quarterbacks.
This list is about that last 10%. It’s a stab in the dark at
players who may just come out of the woodwork and surprise
1 WR Josh Palmer, LAC, age 24
458 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
A challenging prospect based on raw numbers, Palmer
you this year. had fewer than 100 career catches at Tennessee as the team
Everybody knows that Aidan Hutchinson and Drake Lon- struggled to mount a passing offense. He had only 475 re-
don should be good. There’s a cottage industry around the ceiving yards for the 2020 Volunteers … which still led the
idea of hyping every draft’s No. 1 quarterback as a potential team with almost twice the yardage of second-place Velus
superstar. But players don’t stop being promising just because Jones Jr. Palmer showed the ability to create on his own in a
they don’t make waves in their rookie seasons. This is a list of limited offense time and time again, but this lack of produc-
players who have a real chance to make an impact in the NFL tion was a main factor behind a pretty poor Playmaker Score
despite their lack of draft stock and the fact that they weren’t projection—Palmer had just an 8.7% Playmaker Rating—and
immediate NFL starters. he didn’t show especially great splits in workouts. He ran an
Previous editions of the list have hyped players such as average 4.52s 40-yard dash, and his most dominant physical
George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, Mark Andrews, and J.C. Jack- characteristic was probably his 33-inch arm length.
son before they blew up. Last year’s list led off with Damien He didn’t play enough to qualify for our main leaderboard
Harris, who merely scored 15 touchdowns last year. It had Lo- as a rookie, but among wideouts with 10 to 49 targets, Palmer
gan Wilson, who started in the Super Bowl. It also had some finished 14th in DYAR and 22nd in DVOA. However, by the
solid contributors who figure to make a lot of money in the end of the season Palmer began getting starts. He had three
future, and, well, some misses. These lists tend to be high- touchdowns in the last five weeks of Los Angeles’ season as
variance because, by the definitions we have created here, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler missed some time. Palmer
we’re trying to pick out guys who have barely done anything wasn’t physically dominating, but he had a knack for doing
in the NFL so far. work at the catch point. His production came despite finish-
The specifics of each year’s list are heavily dependent on ing with the 13th-lowest amount of cushion in NFL Next Gen
the depth of incoming draft classes. For instance, this year’s Stats’ database.
list has a ton of cornerbacks because most of the eligible play- The extremely exciting part is that Palmer is dialed into one
ers either ran into injuries or were brought along slowly. Last of the best offenses in the NFL. Allen may not be washed up
year’s list had three offensive linemen in the top 10 for much yet, but he turned 30 in April and will eventually leave a target
the same reasons. Last year’s list also had more wideouts than vacuum to be filled. Palmer has also already earned his quar-
this year’s, which isn’t surprising if you watched the 2022 terback’s confidence. “This year it’s a different Josh Palmer
NFL draft. The recent valuation of wideouts has moved them out there,” Justin Herbert told reporters in June. “He knows
into the top two rounds more and more often, which makes exactly where he’s going. We throw a bunch after practice. I
fewer of them eligible for our Top Prospects list. feel comfortable with him.” If Palmer’s the third wideout in
This is the 16th anniversary of the list. We’re still relying Los Angeles’ offense, he’s going to be a fantasy factor in a
on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measur- hurry.
ables, context, ceiling, expected role, and what we hear from
other sources. The goal is to bring attention to players who are
still developing in their second and third seasons, even after
the draftniks have forgotten them. It’s important to note that
2 S Andre Cisco, JAX, age 22
245 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
A playmaker at Syracuse, Cisco had 18 passes defensed and
this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there seven interceptions … as a freshman in 2018. He had another
would be no offensive linemen on it) and career potential mat- 10 PDs and five picks in his sophomore season before a torn
ters. It’s not just a list for the 2022 season. ACL in a pregame collision ended his junior season prema-
Here’s our full criteria: turely. Cisco’s tackling technique was about the only thing
scouts could pick up on as a weakness, but we have almost no
• Drafted in the third round or later or signed as an un- workout data for him because of the ACL injury.
drafted free agent. Drafted by Urban Meyer’s Jaguars at the top of the third
• Entered the NFL between 2019 and 2021. round, Cisco didn’t play because … well, because it was a
• Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except dysfunctional environment. In fact, Meyer botched a direct
running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps). question about it when asked. “Well, Cisco’s playing a little
463
464 TOP 25 PROSPECTS

bit more, I believe,” Meyer said at the time. “I don’t have his just shy of our snap requirement. Jones came back to start in
numbers in front of me. But yeah, that’s a conversation.” Cis- the Super Bowl and sacked Joe Burrow. He had a run stop rate
co at the time had played just 21 defensive snaps in the previ- of 71% (sixth among qualifying linebackers) and allowed just
ous month. After Meyer was fired, surprise, all of a sudden 4.8 yards per pass in coverage (11th).
Cisco started getting major playing time. Both of his passes The Rams reeled in Bobby Wagner this offseason, but the
defensed came in the final month of the season. plan seems to be to start Jones alongside the former All-Pro.
Cisco looks likely to beat out incumbent Kid Rock imper- “He has all of the attributes of a great linebacker. If I could do
sonator Andrew Wingard for a starting spot this season. New anything to help, I will,” Wagner was quoted by The Athletic’s
defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell heaped praise on Cisco Jordan Rodrigue. “I think he’s a very special player, and he
during minicamp: “Smart. Smart. One thing about it, coaching has a chance to be really, really good.”
wise, you put stuff in and he gets it quickly, able to take it out
on the field, make calls, he communicates well which is huge
for us. Just a smart, good, athletic player.” 5 CB Ambry Thomas, SF, age 22
333 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
Only a one-year starter for Michigan, Thomas had three

3 RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, age 24

265 offensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2021)
Stevenson led Oklahoma in rushing during the abbreviated
picks and seven passes defensed in 2019 before opting out of
the 2020 season. He ran a 4.4s 40-yard dash at his pro day and,
though a little short at 5-foot-11, was stout enough to play
2020 COVID-19 season with 665 yards in six games. Overall press successfully in the Big Ten. As a true outside corner with
at Oklahoma, he averaged 7.2 yards per carry and scored 13 any kind of track record of pure success, he was in enough
rushing touchdowns in 165 career carries. Running a 4.63s demand to go in the third round.
40-yard-dash at his pro day helped build on the narrative that Injuries forced the 49ers to open Thomas down the stretch,
he didn’t have much explosion—Stevenson’s a big back at and he was torched in his first few weeks before making ad-
231 pounds, and he bullies defenders. A failed drug test in justments. Starting in Week 16, over five games (including the
2019 also had him suspended by the NCAA. playoffs) he allowed just 5.5 yards per pass in coverage with
Checking in with the No. 3 success rate in the NFL (59%) a 59% success rate. The playoff run in particular was wildly
in his rookie season, Stevenson was a change-up behind last successful, as even though he was picked on often, he was
year’s No. 1 overall prospect Damien Harris. It was clear that up to the task. Matthew Stafford targeted him 10 times in the
Stevenson had some juice even if the fantasy football tastemak- NFC Championship Game but only gained 47 yards on those
ers and preseason watchers were a little ahead of their skis when targets.
they anointed him as someone who could make a difference in Both Josh Norman and K’Waun Williams left the top of the
2021. Stevenson finished in the top 20 in both rushing DVOA 49ers depth chart this offseason, paving the way for Thomas
and rushing DYAR. He also had 0.53 rushing yards over expec- to potentially be a starter outside alongside Charvarius Ward.
tation per NFL Next Gen Stats, a top-10 figure in the NFL. And Thomas reported to camp noticeably bigger. He’ll have to beat
… he was behind Harris in all three categories. out Emmanuel Moseley (or perhaps one of them will play
Harris remains ahead of Stevenson on the depth chart head- nickel), but Thomas’ rapid improvement has us believing he
ing into 2022. That doesn’t mean we can rule out Stevenson has the inside track.
taking a bigger share of the backfield. With James White re-
signed to play third-down back and rookie Pierre Strong be-
hind him in that role, Stevenson is going to have to beat out
Harris to get more than a share of the lead role in this back-
6 C Nick Harris, CLE, age 23
214 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2020)
Harris finished first-team All-Pac-12 at Washington in his
field. He has the kind of talent where we could see that hap- junior and senior seasons, with some snaps at right tackle and
pening, but some patience may be warranted on any kind of some at center. His size (6-foot-0, 302 pounds) was better
impending breakout just because of the competition. suited to the inside in the NFL. His best trait from a scouting
perspective was his 5.1s 40-yard dash at the combine, which

4 LB Ernest Jones, LAR, age 22

440 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
South Carolina’s leading tackler in back-to-back seasons,
was in the 80th percentile of all offensive linemen. But his
power was questionable, and so despite good college produc-
tion, he slid into Day 3.
Jones racked up 10.5 tackles for loss, seven pass deflections, Through two years, Harris has a pair of spot starts and an
two picks, and 183 total tackles in his final two years with the extended relief appearance in 2020. He struggled in pass pro-
Gamecocks. He has modern interior player length and burst, tection in 2020, blowing three blocks and allowing two sacks
with an 80⅛-inch wingspan and a 38.5-inch vertical jump, in 91 pass-blocking snaps. But he improved in 2021’s small
both 93rd percentile among NFL linebackers. Most of the start, with just one of each. The knock on him until he proves
dings against him from scouts were about coverage after a otherwise is going to be dealing with inside power in pass
junior season that had no passes defensed. protection.
However, Jones quickly proved to be an all-around player With Cleveland releasing JC Tretter, Harris has become the
for the Rams. He became a starter on Halloween and played favorite for the starting center job for the Browns this offsea-
most of the snaps until a Week 16 high-ankle sprain left him son. “The amount of reps that I’ve taken against top-tier talent
 TOP 25 PROSPECTS 465

out here against our defense has helped me tremendously,” he going to be able to play on passing downs?
Harris told Cleveland reporters in June. “Then getting those
couple of games that I’ve played, playing against Green Bay,
it made me feel like I belong. It felt good to be playing center,
getting out there and doing what I do.” Harris stands a good
9 TE Brevin Jordan, HOU, age 22
232 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2021)
Falling to the fifth round due to sub-optimal size, the 6-foot-
shot of beating out former Seahawks center Ethan Pocic in a 2, 247-pound Jordan has some tweener criticism in his draft
competition that almost nobody is talking about because, well, profile and was also dinged for missing games to injury in every
there’s not a lot of air space in Cleveland right now. season at Miami. He also caught seven touchdowns in eight
starts as a junior and ran a 1.59s 10-yard split at his pro day that

7 QB Tyler Huntley, BAL, age 24

401 offensive snaps, undrafted (2020)
Despite a huge senior bump where he completed 73.1% of
is 85th percentile among tight ends. Jordan is explosive.
His rookie season with Houston was a mixture of what
you’d expect from that profile. Jordan was slowed by injuries
his passes at 10.9 adjusted yards per attempt for 19 touch- at times but caught three touchdowns in an anemic Texans at-
downs with just four picks, Huntley’s lack of ideal size for tack despite never really becoming a full-time starter. He was
the position—6-foot-1, 196 pounds—left him off most team’s isolated at times as a read and did fairly well when targeted,
draft boards. He also ran 389 times over three years as a more- finishing 26th in DVOA among tight ends. The Texans liked
or-less full-time starter, picking up 16 rushing touchdowns. to pretend they could run the ball better with their run-block-
That may have been a signpost that he could deal with NFL ing tight ends and Jordan wasn’t trusted with that despite not
punishment, but if it was, no team besides the Ravens was being a bad blocker on paper.
listening. If we had confidence that Jordan was going to be targeted
Huntley had to start down the stretch after Lamar Jackson as a 1B option by the Texans behind Brandin Cooks—some-
was hurt last year. He finished with a 1.8% passing DVOA and thing that you could argue should be the case based on the
14 DYAR, completing 64.9% of his passes. He did take a ton resumes of their other wideouts—Jordan would be a candi-
of sacks (his unadjusted sack rate was 8.7%), and his tenure date for the No. 1 overall prospect spot. But Houston brought
was one of being one play away from winning the game rather back Pharaoh Brown and Antony Auclair, then drafted Teagan
than actually winning the game. But all in all, it was a fairly Quitoriano in the sixth round to stack the depth chart. They
successful debut. Any time a quarterback shows even the re- continue to make noise about being committed to a run-heavy
motest of a pulse like this as a backup, it’s worth monitoring. game plan. If Jordan makes a playing-time leap, he should be
We don’t think Huntley is someone the Ravens should pro- a fringe fantasy TE1. It’s just hard to foresee how things will
mote to starter unless there are dire circumstances, but he has shake out on this bizarre roster, even if new offensive coordi-
played interestingly enough that the league’s truly quarter- nator Pep Hamilton does have a penchant for using tight ends
back-needy teams should consider him. He’s not Kyler Mur- more often than predecessor Tim Kelly.
ray—only Kyler Murray is. But Murray proved that small
packages can sometimes yield more than expected in an NFL
context and Huntley could do the same if given a real chance. 10 ER Joseph Ossai, CIN, age 22
0 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
There was some real helium in Ossai’s stock leading up to

8 DT Alim McNeil, DET, age 22

422 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
Normally defensive tackles make this list because they’re
the draft, so it was a bit of a surprise that he was still around
for the Bengals at 69th overall. The Texas edge rusher had
29.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in his final 22 games on the
undersized—one of our biggest hits in history is Geno At- 40 acres, then ran a 4.62s 40-yard dash at his pro day. Sack-
kins—but McNeil is very much not that. The 6-foot-1, SEER gave him a rating of 89.2%, which puts him historically
317-pounder was explosive, but also a brawler at the point of amongst prospects such as Kyle Van Noy and LaMarr Wood-
attack at North Carolina State. McNeil had 17.5 tackles for ley. Ossai was supposed to be the extra pass-rusher the Ben-
loss and 10 sacks inside, along with a surprising 10 passes gals could go to on third down next to Trey Hendrickson and
defensed. His arm length was pretty short (32⅝ inches), but Sam Hubbard (both fellow prospect list alums!), but after sev-
otherwise his pro day was full of NFL-caliber measurements. eral great rushes and a sack of Tom Brady, he went down with
Playing behind Michael Brockers and Nicholas Williams in a season-ending torn meniscus in his first preseason game.
an inside rotation in 2021, McNeil led Lions interior players It looks likely that Ossai will be the No. 3 pass-rusher to
with two sacks and finished second with eight hurries. He also start the 2022 season if he’s healthy, and the Bengals haven’t
had the highest run stop rate (68%) among their interior line- really added anybody that would push him. Reports were that
men. All of McNeil’s hurries came on first or second down. Ossai would be ready for training camp. As long as he hasn’t
The offseason depth chart has unfolded nicely for McNeill, lost anything to the injury, he’ll have a chance to be a factor
as John Penisini’s abrupt retirement after his rookie season for the Bengals’ AFC title defense right away.
left a three-man rotation of McNeil, Brockers, and 2021 sec-
ond-rounder Levi Onwuzurike inside. McNeil figures to take
over as a starter this year. The question about his value will
simply be: Is he a very good nose tackle for run downs, or is
11 ER (LB?) Julian Okwara, Detroit Lions, age 24
431 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2020)
A player who returns from last year’s list, Okwara was a
466 TOP 25 PROSPECTS

highly effective situational pass-rusher for the Lions last year. transferring away from Michigan, St-Juste didn’t pick off any
Okwara led all edge rusher prospects in 2020’s draft with an passes but had 13 passes defensed in two seasons. He also
explosion index of 1.4 per our SackSEER system. Coming off has true outside cornerback height and weight at 6-foot-3,
a broken leg in 2019, he missed the combine and then Notre 202 pounds. St-Juste ran a 4.52s 40-yard dash at his pro day,
Dame’s pro day was cancelled, so those numbers have to be which was disappointing but understandable given the size.
taken with a grain of salt because we are using hand-timed He clearly showed some good change of direction, though,
numbers from Okwara’s own personal pro day. Okwara ran a with a 6.63s 3-cone drill time. He wasn’t regarded as any-
4.60s 40-yard dash there, and said he ran a 4.53 before the in- where near a finished product coming out, and that sent him
jury. He had eight sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 13 games tumbling to the Commanders in the third round.
in his junior year. St-Juste was immediately one of the most popular targets
Okwara finished second on the Lions in hurries (12) and in the NFL in his rookie year, allowing 8.1 yards per pass and
sacks (five) in 2022 despite playing only 362 snaps. The aver- being targeted on a team-high 23.8% of his snaps. He was a
age number of rushers on his pressures was just 4.3, so Ok- big part of Mike Williams’ breakout year in Week 1, but after-
wara was winning one-on-one often in those situations. wards rebounded a bit and didn’t allow another touchdown in
Detroit has promised more of a hybrid role for Okwara this coverage in his short stint as a starter. A long-term concussion
offseason after drafting Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal forced St-Juste from the lineup after Week 8 and he didn’t
early. They want him to play Sam linebacker on run downs play a single defensive snap for the rest of the season.
and rush the passer as part of a third-down package. We’re not The confidence to throw St-Juste outside in Week 1 of last
sure if he can hold up to all the modern linebacker responsi- season and hang with him through his ups and downs likely
bilities, but we’re already believers that he can get after the tells us a lot about how much Washington believes in their
quarterback at a high level. third-round pick. They didn’t draft another corner, nor did
they bring in a backup plan other than last year’s solution,

12 CB/S Ifeatu Melifonwu, DET, age 23

243 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
Yet another Syracuse product on the list, Melifonwu rolled
2018 UDFA Danny Johnson. St-Juste will have every oppor-
tunity to make an impact in his second season, and if he can
get coached up and cap some of his weaknesses, he could be a
into the 2021 draft with true outside cornerback traits and build: fixture outside in the NFL.
6-foot-2, 205 pounds, with a 4.48s 40-yard dash. He picked off
three passes in three seasons at Syracuse but added another 26
passes defensed that point to a higher upside. He’s the second
in this generation of top Melifonwu athletes—readers who are
14 OT Brady Christensen, CAR, age 25
480 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
Zach Wilson’s blind-side protector at BYU, Christensen
Remembering Some Guys may be reminded of his brother Ofi, was a first-team All-American in 2020 and ran a blistering
who was a second-round pick by the Raiders in 2017. 4.89s 40-yard dash at 302 pounds. His 32 ¼-inch arm length
While Melifonwu started the second game of the season was the No. 1 ding on him, as some offensive line coaches be-
against the Packers, a large amount of his playing time came lieve in a floor for the position that is higher than that. Despite
from Week 16 onward, when he played almost 100% of De- being incredible in college, the arm length, his age, and the
troit’s snaps. He allowed 7.2 yards per pass over 14 targets lack of tape against top edge prospects had Christensen lasting
during those weeks, giving up a pair of touchdowns in cover- until the beginning of the third round.
age to DK Metcalf. He also gave up a bomb to Kyle Pitts, Often we tell stories here about how a guy shined in a small
which is the kind of thing that will happen when you’re a raw sample. Nobody shined on Carolina’s terrible offensive line
rookie on a bad defense, but you are the one with the body last year, and Christensen was no exception. He was dread-
type to match up to the NFL’s best. ful, blowing 19 blocks and allowing 4.5 sacks. Tampa Bay, in
Melifonwu, like a few other Lions, has been taken into particular, had him in knots. Eight of his blown blocks came
OTAs as a versatility test case, and has been mentioned for in two games against the Bucs. He also was forced inside at
a possible move to safety. Dan Campbell said of these situa- times to cover for injuries on the line, and his lack of versatil-
tions: “If we don’t do it now, you may not end up doing it. The ity in college came to roost.
more that we can figure out about our players, the better off It’s unclear how much reliability we can give to Matt
we are. I think that only helps us. ... The more guys that you Rhule’s narration at this point, but he has called Christensen
have that have versatility, flexibility inside your scheme, man, “one of the best players on the team” this offseason and the
it really helps you.” Frankly, it’s hard to believe that A.J. Park- starting job at left tackle is still up for grabs as we go to press
er and Jerry Jacobs are better options outside than Melifonwu with a camp battle between Christensen and top-10 pick Ikem
would be physically, but with Jeff Okudah possibly back and Ekwonu. The loser will likely play guard. It’s possible that
Kerby Joseph also added to the secondary, Melifonwu may Christensen needs more seasoning to be good at the position.
just be trying to find a spot to start. It’s also possible that he plays left tackle and is solid at it—
and we rarely can squeeze a solid left tackle onto our top pros-

13 CB Benjamin St-Juste, WAS, age 24

318 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
A Canuck who played his college ball at Minnesota after
pects list. Starting-quality tackles often start right away. The
upside Christensen offers vaults him into the middle of this
list despite the poor rookie season.
 TOP 25 PROSPECTS 467

15 CB Aaron Robinson, NYG, age 24

268 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
UCF’s (mostly) interior corner in 2019 and 2020, Robin-
If there’s a player comparison that’s close to the workout
numbers Williams put out in 2021, it might be Aaron Donald.
(We are not saying he plays like Aaron Donald, please do not
son created 6.5 tackles for loss, 20 passes defensed, and three say that we said that.)
picks over his final two years with the Golden Knights. A In his first season in Philadelphia, Williams was the third
4.38s 40-yard dash lit his draft stock on fire, and while he’s wheel to Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave. He mostly kept
small at 5-foot-11, 186 pounds, he played bigger in college. pace with Hargrave as a run-stuffer but wasn’t quite as disrup-
He also missed almost all of his 2018 season with a concus- tive as a pass-rusher. That’s not to say Williams was bad—
sion that required him to be taken off on a stretcher. Hargrave was exceptional—but Williams produced 14 hurries
Robinson had just two real starts last season: Week 13 and and two sacks in his limited snap count. Twelve of the 17 plays
14 while Adoree’ Jackson was hurt. He allowed 8.7 yards per where he produced pass pressure came from Week 10 on.
attempt on nine targets during that stretch, mostly successful The problem we had putting Williams on this list is that the
passes against the RPO Tua Tagovailoa offense. Robinson did Eagles interior line is a fully loaded baked potato. Hargrave
only allow 5.6 yards per play on the season, though, and had and Cox are back, and they added Jordan Davis at 13th over-
the highest success rate on passes (58%) of any non-Jackson all. The path for Williams to get a full-time job is non-existent
Giants defensive back. without multiple injuries in front of him. However, everything
With the late-offseason release of James Bradberry, Robin- we have seen so far points to Williams being a worthy starter
son currently is the best bet the Giants have at outside corner. if he gets that chance.
It feels a bit like they’re shoehorning him in and that he could
face a trial by fire with the lack of an established talent that
actually has an outside corner build on the roster. The oppor-
tunity is there in spades, but it’s an interesting test because
18 WR Jauan Jennings, SF, age 25
337 offensive snaps, seventh-round pick (2020)
A big possession receiver type, Jennings is exactly what
even if he’s not cut out for NFL outside duties, the Giants you’d close your eyes and imagine the 49ers targeting in the
could still move him back inside. draft. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, he led all FBS receivers with
30 missed tackles in 2019 en route to a 969-yard, eight-touch-

16 S Talanoa Hufanga, SF, age 23

395 defensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2021)
USC’s starting strong safety from his freshman year on, Hu-
down season for Tennessee. Remember our Josh Palmer write-
up a few paragraphs ago? The Volunteers have been a brutal
passing offense for years despite Jennings, Palmer, Jones, and
fanga registered 16.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and 12 passes Marquez Callaway all getting drafted and/or producing in the
defensed as he mostly stayed in the box. The main knock on NFL. Jennings’ lack of speed (4.72s 40-yard dash at the com-
him was a lack of elite speed, with a 4.63s 40-yard dash most- bine) put him off the radar for a high NFL pick, and he slipped
ly holding up on the tape in the eyes of most scouts and draft- to the seventh round for the 49ers.
niks. He also dealt with injuries in both 2019 and 2020, and at After spending most of 2020 on the practice squad, Jennings
6-foot-even was regarded by some as a tweener. became the 49ers’ third wideout as the 2021 season wound
But he wound up comfortably fitting a hybrid role in his down and Mohamed Sanu and Trent Sherfield were found lack-
first year in San Francisco, playing deep just as often as he ing. Jennings caught two touchdowns against the Rams in the
played forward for defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans. We season finale to help San Francisco clinch the playoffs. Jen-
had him with just four broken tackles in 392 snaps, and while nings finished 19th in DYAR among receivers with between 10
he didn’t exactly dominate the passes defensed scoresheet, he and 49 targets, while he broke five tackles in just 24 touches.
also had his yards per play allowed massively skewed by one Jennings caught 10 of his 11 targets on third downs for the high-
50-yard completion allowed to Christian Kirk in Week 9—it’s est catch rate among WRs with 10 or more third-down targets.
the only pass play of more than 20 yards where SIS had him Speaking about his third-year receivers—Jennings and
in coverage in all season. Brandon Aiyuk—in OTAs, Kyle Shanahan said: “They’ve had
With Jaquiski Tartt off to Philadelphia, Hufanga appeared as good an offseason as they’ve had since they’ve been in the
to be winning the early competition with veteran George league. And they’re as good as they’ve been right now. Both
Odum to take over as one of San Francisco’s safeties. We do of them.” The 49ers drafted Danny Gray in the third round,
worry that the speed could be exposed, but as long as he’s not but Jennings has a window to fully establish himself as the
a single-high safety too often, the 49ers defense is a good fit main third wideout. And should the Deebo Samuel situation
for Hufanga’s skill set. turn sour again for whatever reason, there is a major upside
here. As you might imagine from his size, he’s also a major

17 DL Milton Williams, PHI, age 23

456 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
What can we say about Williams’ college career? He was
factor in the running game; he absolutely punished Jaguars
safety Rayshawn Jenkins on a block in Week 11.

a smoke show. Williams had 10 sacks and 19 tackles for loss

inside in his last two seasons at Louisiana Tech. He then pro-
ceeded to put on an absolutely absurd pro day, running a 4.67s
19 CB Thomas Graham, CHI, age 23
112 defensive snaps, sixth-round pick (2021)
Graham went right into the starting lineup at Oregon as a
40-yard dash at 284 pounds and running a sub-7s 3-cone drill. freshman and eventually started 39 games before opting out
468 TOP 25 PROSPECTS

ahead of the 2020 season. He broke up 40 passes and inter- pure run-stuffing, run downs-only interior lineman. Lawrence
cepted another eight over three seasons. He has a tweener had 6.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss in his final two seasons
body type between outside and slot at 5-foot-10, 192 pounds, at LSU but wasn’t considered by many to be a Day 2 prospect.
and his pro day workout was a fairly big disappointment with- He was a two-gapper with enough natural quickness to find
out a real standout result. This slid him all the way into the his way into backfields occasionally.
sixth round for the Bears. In his second year in the desert, Lawrence ascended to 219
Active as Chicago played out the string, Graham started in defensive snaps. He had nine run stops during that time, and
Week 15 against the Vikings and played major snaps in Week his stop rate of 82% was second highest among Arizona’s in-
16 versus the Seahawks. It’s not much of a sample size, and terior linemen.
he allowed a 41-yard touchdown catch to DK Metcalf (who We don’t have him high up on this list because the value of
among us hasn’t?), but he held his other six targets to one a run-only defender is lacking and there’s not much question
catch for 10 yards. that Lawrence isn’t a pass-rusher at this point. But the Cardi-
With the great purge that was the Chicago roster this offsea- nals have shed a lot of defensive interior guys this offseason
son, Graham has a real starting shot. All he has to do is beat and Lawrence should benefit as a likely rotation piece along-
out veteran Tavon Young to be the team’s starting nickelback. side Leki Fotu and Zach Allen on the inside. He won’t be on
Bears defensive backs coach James Rowe said of Graham: SportsCenter, but Lawrence’s gap-soundness on first and sec-
“He is intent on being good, and we love what we see from ond down can help the Cardinals get to those aggressive blitz
him so far” at OTAs. Graham may not be someone who you schemes on third down.
want to trust on bigger-bodied receivers outside, but if the
Bears are already burning it all down for the insurance money,
they have every motivation to see if he can handle 1,000 slot
snaps this year.
22 RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN, age 24
29 offensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2021)
You’re used to NFL success stories who were overlooked
on stacked depth charts from, say, Alabama. How about Da-

20 LB Jonas Griffith, DEN, age 24

255 defensive snaps, undrafted (2020)
Hailing out of tiny Indiana State, Griffith was overlooked by
vid Montgomery and Breece Hall’s backup at Iowa State?
Nwangwu caught eyes by running a 4.31s 40-yard dash at the
Cyclones’ pro day in 2020. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry in
most draftniks coming out. One thing you can’t say is that the college and added 26.8 yards per kick return.
college numbers were unimpressive: Griffith had 14 sacks, 28.5 Somewhat of a surprise pick in the fourth round—most out-
tackles for loss, and 382 total tackles in four years as a starter. side publications had him as barely draftable or as a priority
By his senior season, opposing Missouri Valley teams had start- free agent—Nwangwu spent most of the year behind Dalvin
ed trying to avoid him entirely. Griffith ran a 4.62s 40-yard dash Cook and Alexander Mattison. He did manage two kick return
at 250 pounds during his pro day, along with a 7.08s 3-cone that touchdowns and averaged 4.6 yards in his extremely limited
pointed to his ability to operate in tight spaces. His 81⅛-inch 13-carry sample.
wingspan is great for a modern cover linebacker. The path to playing time for Nwangwu is not cut and dried
Undrafted, Griffith was dealt from the 49ers to the Broncos in 2022, but the path to playing time in Minnesota is very open
at last cuts in 2021 in a swap that ultimately netted a sixth- in the long term. Cook’s cap hit balloons to $14 million in
round pick for San Francisco. The Broncos stuck him on 2023, in his age-28 season, and if he becomes expendable, the
injured reserve but came back to him late in the season as Vikings will save cap space releasing him. This is in a front
a starter for the final four games. He posted a 71% success office led by new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah,
rate in coverage and a 72% stop rate on run plays but didn’t who has an analytical background. Meanwhile, Mattison will
play enough snaps to qualify for our rankings in either. Those be a free agent after the 2021 season. Nwangwu has very little
would both be very good numbers in a bigger sample size. chance of making an offensive impact this year beyond injury
With Kenny Young and Alexander Johnson both gone, chaos, but he’s so explosive with the ball that we couldn’t
Griffith seems like the best option to play with Josey Jewell leave him off your radar.
inside. We prefer Griffith to ex-Eagles veteran Alex Single-
ton. The caveat is that the Broncos have tried to turn Baron
Browning into an outside linebacker, and if they abandon that
experiment, Griffith will have to face someone better in com-
23 TE Kylen Granson, IND, age 24
228 offensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2021)
An H-back sort of tight end, Granson started at Rice, where
petition for the job. Either way, the early returns on the trade he led the team in receiving yards as a true freshman with
have been good for Denver. Worst-case scenario, Griffith is a 381, and then transferred to SMU in 2019. Over 23 starts at
good depth player and special-teamer. SMU he had 1,257 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. But
at 6-foot-1, 241 pounds, he fit squarely into a tweener zone

21 DL Rashard Lawrence, Arizona Cardinals, age 24

385 defensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2020)
Under the old rules of our list, where we defined our mini-
as someone who might not be big enough to be a real tight
end. Frank Reich was very adamant that the Colts come away
with him in the draft, telling Indy’s With The Next Pick series:
mums with start count instead of snaps, Lawrence wouldn’t be “I like Granson a lot, he’s gonna play.” And from the same
eligible. That distinction says a lot about what Lawrence is: a video, a Colts scout related: “Frank came into the draft room
 TOP 25 PROSPECTS 469

one day and was like ‘Hey, I watched this Granson kid, he can
run, he’s athletic, I really like this guy.’”
Granson spent his rookie season third on the depth chart
25 WR Dyami Brown, WAS, age 22
335 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2021)
Brown’s college game was winning early off the snap, cre-
behind Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. He finished with -15 ating big plays by leaving college cornerbacks in the dust. He
DYAR but a 73% catch rate. He never drew more than two averaged 20.0 yards per catch in both his 2019 and 2020 sea-
targets in a single game, and his playing-time high was just 32 sons at North Carolina with future Commanders quarterback
offensive snaps in Week 16. Sam Howell, catching 20 touchdowns over that span. He’s a
But with Doyle’s retirement, Granson now enters the season shorter wideout for this skill set—6-foot-0 at 189 pounds—
as the No. 2 tight end on the depth chart, and Matt Ryan is a and in that context, only his 87th-percentile broad jump at his
quarterback who could be better suited (read: more willing) to pro day was truly special compared to other wideouts of his
take advantage of Granson’s skill set. The selection of Jelani size. The production, though, gave him an 84.7% Playmaker
Woods in the third round is a potential long-term roadblock Rating that was eighth in his class.
for Granson, but Woods is likely to need a redshirt year as Brown’s rookie season in Washington was something of a
he’s somewhat raw. Granson has a small window to establish missed opportunity, with injuries limiting his effectiveness
himself as the Trey Burton of his draft class. and a poor deep passing game keeping him from unlocking
his best traits. He also was blanketed on many routes and will

24 LB Jabril Cox, DAL, age 24

9 defensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2021)
A North Dakota transfer who moved up to LSU for his senior
need to improve his ability to get open against NFL coverages
and body types. As Washington’s season dwindled, Brown
was a complete non-factor, drawing only five targets from
season, Cox notched 6.5 tackles for loss, three picks, and eight Week 7 on.
passes defensed with 58 tackles for the Bayou Bengals. For his But the big leap for most players is Year 1 to Year 2, and
college career, he finished with 33 passes defensed including the situation in front of Brown hasn’t exactly settled. Most
nine picks. At 6-foot-3, 232 pounds, there was some concern of the reason to believe in Brown comes from his prospect
about his ability to take on more physical players at LSU. profile rather than his first season in the NFL, but he’s still got
What we didn’t get to see in 2021 was any kind of response a chance.
to that criticism. Cox barely played before an October ACL tear
ended his season. He did miss some preseason tackles pretty Honorable Mention
badly but was more up-and-down than outright bad. Still, the CB Tre Brown, SEA
major bugaboo for him is going to be whether he can deal with S Camryn Bynum, MIN
the run enough to be more than a spot player in the NFL. G Ben Cleveland, BAL
With Leighton Vander Esch back in Dallas, Cox is currently C Drew Dalman, ATL
set to be the third linebacker in base sets for the Cowboys. In LB Divine Deablo, LV
an ideal world, Cox would seize Vander Esch’s passing-down RB Chris Evans, CIN
duties since the veteran never fully recovered his form in cover- RB/WR Demetric Felton, CLE
age prior to his neck injuries. To do that, Cox is going to have CB Zech McPhearson, PHI
to improve his play strength. “I think he is coming along great. ER Quincy Roche, NYG
Should be a big plus for us this year,” Cowboys executive vice RB Trey Sermon, SF
president Stephen Jones said in March. “Will fill right in where
Keanu [Neal] left off. I think he has great coverage skills.” Rivers McCown
 Fantasy Projections
H ere are the top 270 players according to the KUBIAK
projection system, ranked by projected fantasy value
(FANT) in 2022. We have used the following generic scor-
17 games started. This puts the quarterback projections in
line with the other projections which also incorporate the
possibility of injury.
ing system: Players are ranked in order based on marginal value of
each player, the idea that you draft based on how many
• 1 point for each 10 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, more points a player will score compared to the worst
or 25 yards passing starting player at that position, not how many points a
• 6 points for each rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 player scores overall. We have ranked players in five league
points for each passing touchdown configurations:
• -2 points for each interception or fumble lost
• Kickers: 1 point for each extra point, 3 points for each • Flex Rk: 12 teams, starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX
field goal (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D.
• Team defense: 2 points for a fumble recovery, • 3WR Rk: 12 teams, starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1
interception, or safety, 1 point for a sack, and 6 points K, and 1 D.
for a touchdown. • Flex-PPR Rk: Same as Flex but adds one point per
reception to scoring.
These totals are then adjusted based on each player’s • 3WR-PPR Rk: Same as 3WR but adds one point per
listed Risk for 2022: reception to scoring.
• Flex-10 Rk: same as Flex but with only 10 teams
• Green: Standard risk, no change instead of 12.
• Yellow: Higher than normal risk, value dropped by 5%
• Red: Highest risk, value dropped by 10% These rankings also reduce the value of kickers and
• Blue: Stronger chance of breakout, value increased by defenses to reflect the general drafting habits of fantasy
5% football players. (We estimated five bench players for each
team; for each additional bench spot in your league, move
Note that fantasy totals may not exactly equal these kickers and defenses down 10 to 12 spots.) We urge you
calculations, because each touchdown projection is not to draft using common sense, not a strict reading of these
necessarily a round number. (For example, a quarterback rankings.
listed with 2 rushing touchdowns may actually be projected The online KUBIAK application featuring these
with 2.4 rushing touchdowns, which will add 14 fantasy projections is also available at FootballOutsiders.com
points to the player’s total rather than 12.) Fantasy value as part of an FO+ subscription. These projections can be
does not include adjustments for week-to-week consistency. customized to the rules of any specific league with the
The projections listed below for quarterbacks differ ability to save multiple league set-ups. The online KUBIAK
from those found in the quarterbacks section earlier in the application is updated based on injuries and changing
book because they incorporate the possibility of injury and forecasts of playing time during the preseason, and also
represent 15 or 16 games started rather than representing has a version which includes individual defensive players.

Flex 3WR Flex

Flex 3WR
Player Tm Bye Pos Age PaYd PaTD INT Ru RuYd RuTD Rec RcYd RcTD FL Fant Risk PPR PPR 10
Rk Rk
Rk Rk Rk
Jonathan Taylor IND 14 RB 23 0 0 0 298 1495 13 38 284 1 2 259 Green 1 1 4 3 1
Christian McCaffrey CAR 13 RB 26 0 0 0 251 1070 8 96 757 3 1 234 Yellow 2 3 2 1 2
Dalvin Cook MIN 7 RB 27 0 0 0 314 1424 12 36 270 1 2 229 Yellow 3 4 10 8 3
Cooper Kupp LAR 7 WR 29 0 0 0 3 18 0 115 1506 12 0 221 Green 4 2 1 2 4
Austin Ekeler LAC 8 RB 27 0 0 0 219 922 8 68 569 4 2 220 Green 5 6 6 5 5
Derrick Henry TEN 6 RB 28 0 0 0 328 1432 11 18 144 1 1 213 Yellow 6 7 20 16 6
Justin Jefferson MIN 7 WR 23 0 0 0 5 19 0 100 1451 10 0 208 Green 7 5 3 4 7
Leonard Fournette TB 11 RB 27 0 0 0 235 976 9 60 396 2 1 205 Green 8 8 10 7 8
Joe Mixon CIN 10 RB 26 0 0 0 272 1062 9 49 348 2 1 204 Green 9 8 12 12 8
Najee Harris PIT 9 RB 24 0 0 0 288 1080 8 50 357 2 1 201 Green 10 13 14 13 10
Aaron Jones GB 14 RB 28 0 0 0 213 995 8 46 381 3 1 199 Green 11 14 15 14 11
Ja'Marr Chase CIN 10 WR 22 0 0 0 8 38 0 87 1352 8 1 189 Green 12 8 8 10 13
Davante Adams LV 6 WR 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 108 1338 9 0 187 Green 13 11 5 6 14
Travis Kelce KC 8 TE 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 1109 8 0 160 Green 13 15 8 11 12
Javonte Williams DEN 9 RB 22 0 0 0 237 1003 8 41 314 2 1 186 Green 15 17 22 18 16
470
 FANTASY PROJECTIONS 471
Flex 3WR Flex
Flex 3WR
Player Tm Bye Pos Age PaYd PaTD INT Ru RuYd RuTD Rec RcYd RcTD FL Fant Risk PPR PPR 10
Rk Rk
Rk Rk Rk
Josh Allen BUF 7 QB 26 4376 34 13 104 620 5 0 0 0 5 414 Green 15 16 17 20 15
CeeDee Lamb DAL 9 WR 23 0 0 0 10 73 1 94 1284 8 0 186 Green 15 12 7 9 16
David Montgomery CHI 14 RB 25 0 0 0 255 972 9 44 311 1 1 184 Green 18 19 21 17 18
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 9 RB 27 0 0 0 226 892 8 41 270 2 1 171 Green 19 21 30 22 19
Patrick Mahomes KC 8 QB 27 5035 35 12 59 337 2 0 0 0 5 405 Green 20 20 26 28 20
Deebo Samuel SF 9 WR 26 0 0 0 69 400 3 62 917 4 1 171 Green 20 18 19 22 20
Nick Chubb CLE 9 RB 27 0 0 0 197 1021 7 27 191 1 1 167 Green 22 25 43 32 23
Mark Andrews BAL 10 TE 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 976 7 0 137 Green 23 23 16 19 20
Cam Akers LAR 7 RB 23 0 0 0 238 969 8 24 172 1 2 163 Green 24 29 52 42 24
Justin Herbert LAC 8 QB 24 4698 34 12 64 292 4 0 0 0 2 393 Green 24 24 30 32 25
D'Andre Swift DET 6 RB 23 0 0 0 184 743 6 55 415 2 1 158 Green 26 32 30 22 26
Antonio Gibson WAS 14 RB 24 0 0 0 226 907 8 34 247 1 2 157 Yellow 26 32 46 36 26
James Conner ARI 13 RB 27 0 0 0 214 791 8 29 237 1 1 157 Green 26 32 52 40 26
Stefon Diggs BUF 7 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 95 1120 8 0 157 Green 29 21 13 15 29
AJ Dillon GB 14 RB 24 0 0 0 190 786 6 30 248 2 1 156 Blue 30 36 49 38 30
J.K. Dobbins BAL 10 RB 24 0 0 0 207 1048 7 21 164 1 1 154 Yellow 31 37 73 51 31
Devin Singletary BUF 7 RB 25 0 0 0 202 877 7 29 201 1 1 151 Green 32 39 64 44 32
Josh Jacobs LV 6 RB 24 0 0 0 217 854 8 36 266 1 1 151 Yellow 32 39 54 42 34
Tyreek Hill MIA 11 WR 28 0 0 0 22 188 1 74 904 6 0 150 Green 34 26 24 26 34
Mike Evans TB 11 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 1002 8 0 150 Green 34 26 24 26 36
Miles Sanders PHI 7 RB 25 0 0 0 200 983 6 23 158 1 1 150 Green 34 42 75 53 36
Tee Higgins CIN 10 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 1099 7 0 149 Green 37 28 23 25 38
Damien Harris NE 10 RB 25 0 0 0 198 876 8 15 122 1 1 146 Green 38 44 89 67 40
Mike Williams LAC 8 WR 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 1092 7 0 146 Yellow 38 30 27 29 40
Kyle Pitts ATL 14 TE 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 929 4 0 118 Green 40 41 33 34 32
Keenan Allen LAC 8 WR 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 1030 7 1 145 Green 40 30 18 21 42
A.J. Brown PHI 7 WR 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 1057 6 0 142 Green 42 32 29 31 43
Saquon Barkley NYG 9 RB 25 0 0 0 190 745 5 45 330 2 1 142 Green 42 48 49 38 43
Dalton Schultz DAL 9 TE 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 744 7 0 114 Green 44 44 36 40 39
Alvin Kamara NO 14 RB 27 0 0 0 180 700 6 40 352 2 0 141 Red 44 49 67 47 45
Jalen Hurts PHI 7 QB 24 3683 20 11 146 804 9 0 0 0 7 360 Green 46 44 44 54 46
Chris Godwin TB 11 WR 26 0 0 0 3 17 0 91 1079 7 1 137 Red 47 38 27 30 48
Breece Hall NYJ 10 RB 21 0 0 0 181 782 6 30 215 1 1 136 Green 48 57 86 60 58
Tony Pollard DAL 9 RB 25 0 0 0 160 762 4 33 249 1 1 135 Blue 49 63 80 57 59
Elijah Mitchell SF 9 RB 24 0 0 0 211 873 5 18 139 1 0 135 Green 49 63 101 83 59
George Kittle SF 9 TE 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 743 6 0 107 Green 51 51 44 56 47
Dak Prescott DAL 9 QB 29 4741 32 12 54 196 3 0 0 0 8 364 Green 51 51 56 62 51
D.J. Moore CAR 13 WR 25 0 0 0 7 40 0 78 1001 5 0 132 Green 53 43 34 34 52
Michael Pittman IND 14 WR 25 0 0 0 5 37 0 77 949 6 1 132 Green 53 44 35 36 52
Lamar Jackson BAL 10 QB 25 3601 25 12 169 993 4 0 0 0 7 349 Yellow 53 54 58 65 52
Dawson Knox BUF 7 TE 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 612 7 0 104 Green 56 57 60 67 48
Kyler Murray ARI 13 QB 25 4086 27 12 96 487 6 0 0 0 7 355 Green 56 55 60 66 52
Darren Waller LV 6 TE 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 770 4 0 103 Green 58 61 39 51 50
Aaron Rodgers GB 14 QB 39 4211 34 7 32 115 3 0 0 0 3 355 Green 59 61 64 72 57
Dallas Goedert PHI 7 TE 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 774 4 0 99 Green 60 71 60 67 52
Brandin Cooks HOU 6 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 893 6 0 126 Green 60 49 37 45 61
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 14 RB 31 0 0 0 154 607 6 25 277 2 1 125 Yellow 62 80 93 90 63
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 10 RB 24 0 0 0 174 742 6 13 104 0 1 124 Blue 62 82 101 95 63
Jaylen Waddle MIA 11 WR 24 0 0 0 14 60 2 70 766 5 0 124 Green 64 51 39 48 62
Tom Brady TB 11 QB 45 4654 34 12 29 63 2 0 0 0 4 354 Green 64 73 71 76 63
Joe Burrow CIN 10 QB 26 4717 31 13 49 165 2 0 0 0 4 355 Green 66 75 73 78 63
Michael Gallup DAL 9 WR 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 933 6 0 122 Yellow 67 55 46 54 68
Russell Wilson DEN 9 QB 34 4325 31 11 52 276 2 0 0 0 4 349 Green 67 76 75 81 68
Diontae Johnson PIT 9 WR 26 0 0 0 5 43 0 76 851 5 1 122 Green 67 57 38 45 68
Rashod Bateman BAL 10 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 886 6 0 122 Green 67 57 39 48 68
Chase Edmonds MIA 11 RB 26 0 0 0 158 727 4 30 207 1 1 124 Green 71 86 101 81 67
DeVonta Smith PHI 7 WR 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 901 5 0 120 Green 71 63 56 62 74
Terry McLaurin WAS 14 WR 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 886 5 0 120 Green 71 63 49 59 74
Mark Ingram NO 14 RB 33 0 0 0 190 680 6 17 128 1 1 119 Green 74 92 104 96 73
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 8 RB 23 0 0 0 141 614 4 36 296 2 1 119 Yellow 74 94 104 83 74
Hunter Renfrow LV 6 WR 27 0 0 0 2 7 0 76 848 6 0 119 Green 74 67 39 48 78
Courtland Sutton DEN 9 WR 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 840 6 0 118 Green 74 67 63 67 79
Kirk Cousins MIN 7 QB 34 4516 33 10 30 118 1 0 0 0 6 346 Green 74 82 80 86 79
Ronald Jones KC 8 RB 25 0 0 0 164 710 5 15 124 1 1 117 Green 79 94 109 100 74
Jerry Jeudy DEN 9 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 840 6 1 117 Green 79 69 64 67 79
472 FANTASY PROJECTIONS
Flex 3WR Flex
Flex 3WR
Player Tm Bye Pos Age PaYd PaTD INT Ru RuYd RuTD Rec RcYd RcTD FL Fant Risk PPR PPR 10
Rk Rk
Rk Rk Rk
Matthew Stafford LAR 7 QB 34 4548 34 15 34 81 2 0 0 0 3 346 Green 79 86 82 87 82
DK Metcalf SEA 11 WR 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 839 6 0 117 Green 79 69 67 73 82
Robert Woods TEN 6 WR 30 0 0 0 8 46 0 71 844 5 0 116 Yellow 83 71 58 62 82
T.J. Hockenson DET 6 TE 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 645 5 0 88 Yellow 84 92 79 85 68
JuJu Smith-Schuster KC 8 WR 26 0 0 0 5 19 0 74 773 6 0 116 Green 84 73 48 57 87
James Robinson JAX 11 RB 24 0 0 0 155 677 5 24 172 1 1 111 Yellow 86 100 108 100 82
Rashaad Penny SEA 11 RB 26 0 0 0 165 758 5 22 146 1 0 110 Red 86 102 112 106 87
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 6 WR 23 0 0 0 8 63 0 72 785 5 0 114 Green 88 76 54 60 89
Darnell Mooney CHI 14 WR 25 0 0 0 7 35 0 64 818 4 0 112 Green 89 78 70 75 97
Kareem Hunt CLE 9 RB 27 0 0 0 99 440 3 42 292 2 0 106 Green 90 105 93 92 89
Melvin Gordon DEN 9 RB 29 0 0 0 146 629 5 20 155 1 1 106 Yellow 90 105 119 107 89
Allen Robinson LAR 7 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 814 6 0 111 Yellow 90 78 75 78 97
Robert Tonyan GB 14 TE 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 568 5 0 83 Yellow 93 103 97 107 82
Kenneth Walker SEA 11 RB 22 0 0 0 138 568 4 20 143 1 1 103 Blue 93 109 119 107 94
Christian Kirk JAX 11 WR 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 824 5 0 110 Green 93 80 69 74 104
Darrell Henderson LAR 7 RB 25 0 0 0 123 528 4 24 168 1 0 102 Green 96 110 118 107 97
Travis Etienne JAX 11 RB 23 0 0 0 123 524 4 36 252 1 1 101 Yellow 96 110 104 96 97
Marquise Brown ARI 13 WR 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 786 5 0 109 Green 96 82 71 76 104
DeAndre Hopkins ARI 13 WR 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 739 6 0 109 Green 96 82 82 87 110
Gabriel Davis BUF 7 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 752 6 0 109 Green 96 86 93 100 110
Adam Thielen MIN 7 WR 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 731 7 0 109 Yellow 101 86 87 93 110
Treylon Burks TEN 6 WR 22 0 0 0 12 76 1 56 714 4 0 108 Green 101 86 88 94 118
Tyler Lockett SEA 11 WR 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 812 5 0 108 Green 101 91 82 87 118
Hunter Henry NE 10 TE 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 485 5 0 80 Green 104 110 121 131 89
Zach Ertz ARI 13 TE 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 594 3 0 79 Green 104 110 89 96 94
Raheem Mostert MIA 11 RB 30 0 0 0 126 612 4 12 89 0 1 95 Green 106 117 153 124 110
Amari Cooper CLE 9 WR 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 796 5 0 106 Green 106 94 75 78 131
Michael Carter NYJ 10 RB 23 0 0 0 110 462 4 29 218 1 0 93 Green 108 120 121 113 118
Chase Claypool PIT 9 WR 24 0 0 0 13 73 1 52 703 4 0 106 Green 108 94 97 104 131
Mecole Hardman KC 8 WR 24 0 0 0 11 84 1 55 691 4 1 105 Green 108 98 91 96 140
Cole Kmet CHI 14 TE 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 566 4 0 78 Green 111 115 99 107 101
Gus Edwards BAL 10 RB 27 0 0 0 137 615 5 9 75 0 1 92 Yellow 111 122 167 134 125
Boston Scott PHI 7 RB 27 0 0 0 123 541 5 8 50 0 1 90 Green 111 126 170 142 131
Tyler Boyd CIN 10 WR 28 0 0 0 2 16 0 63 747 5 0 104 Green 111 98 85 90 142
Matt Gay LAR 7 K 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 115 120 115 125 89
Albert Okwuegbunam DEN 9 TE 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 550 4 0 76 Green 115 117 104 114 104
Marlon Mack HOU 6 RB 26 0 0 0 142 571 4 15 107 0 1 90 Yellow 115 126 164 131 131
Isaiah Spiller LAC 8 RB 21 0 0 0 109 452 3 22 165 1 1 89 Blue 115 126 143 118 131
Jamaal Williams DET 6 RB 27 0 0 0 125 484 4 20 138 1 0 89 Green 115 126 147 122 131
Irv Smith MIN 7 TE 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 548 4 0 75 Yellow 120 122 115 122 110
Elijah Moore NYJ 10 WR 22 0 0 0 7 65 0 57 686 4 0 102 Green 120 100 92 100 143
Evan McPherson CIN 10 K 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 122 132 121 136 101
Daniel Carlson LV 6 K 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 122 132 121 136 101
Michael Thomas NO 14 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 754 6 0 101 Red 122 103 93 104 146
Harrison Butker KC 8 K 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 125 132 121 136 104
Pat Freiermuth PIT 9 TE 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 468 5 0 73 Green 125 132 112 119 125
Mike Gesicki MIA 11 TE 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 544 3 0 73 Green 125 132 128 134 125
Dameon Pierce HOU 6 RB 22 0 0 0 111 457 3 16 119 0 1 83 Blue 125 147 167 136 144
Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 8 WR 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 743 4 0 100 Green 125 105 128 131 147
Steelers D PIT 9 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 130 139 128 142 94
Justin Tucker BAL 10 K 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 130 141 133 144 110
Tim Patrick DEN 9 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 682 5 0 99 Green 130 105 109 114 147
Tyler Bass BUF 7 K 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 133 141 133 144 110
Greg Joseph MIN 7 K 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 133 141 133 144 118
Brandon McManus DEN 9 K 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 133 141 136 144 118
Tyler Higbee LAR 7 TE 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 496 4 0 71 Green 133 141 128 136 140
James Cook BUF 7 RB 23 0 0 0 88 376 3 27 194 1 0 78 Green 133 154 164 125 147
Matt Prater ARI 13 K 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 138 147 137 151 125
Damien Williams ATL 14 RB 30 0 0 0 110 444 4 20 140 1 0 77 Red 138 154 172 144 147
Drake London ATL 14 WR 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 730 4 0 96 Green 138 114 100 107 155
Saints D NO 14 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 141 151 137 155 104
Patriots D NE 10 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 141 151 137 155 104
Bills D BUF 7 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 141 154 143 159 110
Nick Folk NE 10 K 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 141 151 137 155 131
Sony Michel MIA 11 RB 27 0 0 0 113 459 4 8 59 0 0 75 Green 141 161 181 172 151
 FANTASY PROJECTIONS 473
Flex 3WR Flex
Flex 3WR
Player Tm Bye Pos Age PaYd PaTD INT Ru RuYd RuTD Rec RcYd RcTD FL Fant Risk PPR PPR 10
Rk Rk
Rk Rk Rk
Darrel Williams ARI 13 RB 27 0 0 0 90 335 4 19 150 1 0 74 Green 141 161 175 151 151
Mason Crosby GB 14 K 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 141 154 143 159 177
Rams D LAR 7 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 148 154 143 159 118
49ers D SF 9 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 148 161 147 163 118
Evan Engram JAX 11 TE 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 497 3 0 68 Green 148 154 137 151 144
Rachaad White TB 11 RB 23 0 0 0 96 399 3 14 94 1 0 73 Blue 148 172 179 163 155
Chris Olave NO 14 WR 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 638 5 0 96 Green 148 115 128 125 158
Cowboys D DAL 9 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 153 161 153 163 125
Titans D TEN 6 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 153 166 153 167 125
Nyheim Hines IND 14 RB 26 0 0 0 65 294 2 35 247 1 1 71 Green 153 172 158 125 155
Rondale Moore ARI 13 WR 22 0 0 0 23 102 1 54 545 4 0 94 Green 153 117 115 119 164
Vikings D MIN 7 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 157 166 153 167 131
Browns D CLE 9 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 157 166 158 167 131
Matt Breida NYG 9 RB 27 0 0 0 86 367 2 18 143 1 1 69 Green 157 179 179 163 163
Bengals D CIN 10 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 157 172 158 172 177
Dustin Hopkins LAC 8 K 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 157 166 158 167 204
Austin Hooper TEN 6 TE 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 430 4 0 66 Green 162 166 166 177 151
Allen Lazard GB 14 WR 27 0 0 0 2 19 0 46 597 5 0 92 Green 162 122 153 155 165
Garrett Wilson NYJ 10 WR 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 694 4 0 92 Green 162 122 121 125 168
Commanders D WAS 14 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Blue 162 172 158 172 182
Noah Fant SEA 11 TE 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 470 3 0 64 Green 166 178 170 180 154
Randall Cobb GB 14 WR 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 614 5 0 91 Green 166 126 137 136 168
Kadarius Toney NYG 9 WR 23 0 0 0 5 22 0 63 747 3 0 91 Yellow 166 126 109 114 174
Russell Gage TB 11 WR 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 654 4 0 91 Green 166 132 121 125 174
Hayden Hurst CIN 10 TE 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 431 4 1 63 Green 170 179 172 183 158
Rex Burkhead HOU 6 RB 32 0 0 0 87 312 3 22 164 1 0 64 Yellow 170 184 181 167 165
James White NE 10 RB 30 0 0 0 27 108 1 51 408 2 0 63 Yellow 170 185 147 119 168
DJ Chark DET 6 WR 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 745 4 0 90 Red 170 132 147 144 174
Brandon Aiyuk SF 9 WR 24 0 0 0 6 37 0 50 653 3 0 90 Green 170 139 147 144 177
Logan Thomas WAS 14 TE 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 432 4 0 62 Yellow 175 179 184 199 158
Brevin Jordan HOU 6 TE 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 409 4 0 62 Green 175 182 177 187 158
David Njoku CLE 9 TE 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 464 3 0 62 Green 175 182 190 201 158
Kenyan Drake LV 6 RB 28 0 0 0 75 294 3 22 169 1 0 62 Yellow 175 185 184 172 168
Tyler Allgeier ATL 14 RB 22 0 0 0 88 355 3 8 59 0 0 61 Blue 175 185 200 187 168
Josh Palmer LAC 8 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 586 4 0 88 Blue 180 141 147 151 185
Jakobi Meyers NE 10 WR 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 670 4 0 88 Green 180 147 112 117 185
Alexander Mattison MIN 7 RB 24 0 0 0 69 255 2 24 168 1 0 58 Green 182 191 184 177 177
D'Onta Foreman CAR 13 RB 26 0 0 0 77 332 2 12 103 0 0 58 Green 182 191 200 187 177
J.D. McKissic WAS 14 RB 29 0 0 0 53 221 2 26 197 1 0 56 Green 182 193 184 177 182
Nico Collins HOU 6 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 625 4 0 87 Green 182 147 167 172 192
Cade Otton TB 11 TE 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 384 3 0 59 Blue 186 188 198 212 165
Kenneth Gainwell PHI 7 RB 23 0 0 0 52 218 2 24 184 1 0 56 Green 186 193 190 180 182
Gerald Everett LAC 8 TE 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 392 3 0 59 Green 188 188 196 209 168
Khalil Herbert CHI 14 RB 24 0 0 0 72 297 2 12 78 0 0 53 Blue 188 195 206 193 185
Van Jefferson LAR 7 WR 26 0 0 0 8 64 0 39 544 4 0 85 Green 188 154 190 193 195
Zamir White LV 6 RB 23 0 0 0 64 268 2 13 103 0 0 52 Blue 191 196 204 193 192
Marvin Jones JAX 11 WR 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 624 4 0 84 Green 191 161 158 159 204
Jarvis Landry NO 14 WR 30 0 0 0 7 34 1 43 512 4 0 84 Green 191 166 181 191 204
Ty Davis-Price SF 9 RB 22 0 0 0 62 256 2 12 88 1 0 50 Blue 194 202 207 201 195
Dontrell Hilliard TEN 6 RB 27 0 0 0 50 258 1 18 129 1 0 49 Green 194 202 204 191 195
Jerick McKinnon KC 8 RB 30 0 0 0 41 167 1 20 172 1 0 49 Blue 194 208 200 187 201
Giovani Bernard TB 11 RB 31 0 0 0 44 171 1 24 162 1 0 47 Green 197 208 198 185 201
Brian Robinson WAS 14 RB 23 0 0 0 58 240 2 12 84 0 0 47 Blue 197 208 208 203 201
DeVante Parker NE 10 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 615 4 0 83 Green 197 172 175 183 207
Christian Watson GB 14 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 573 4 0 83 Green 197 172 177 185 207
Jameis Winston NO 14 QB 28 3638 29 10 69 307 3 0 0 0 4 299 Yellow 201 196 172 180 212
Harrison Bryant CLE 9 TE 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 385 3 0 54 Green 202 202 210 221 192
Chris Evans CIN 10 RB 25 0 0 0 44 191 1 16 124 1 0 43 Green 202 214 208 203 207
Duke Johnson BUF 7 RB 29 0 0 0 44 182 1 14 111 1 0 41 Green 204 218 214 207 212
Hassan Haskins TEN 6 RB 23 0 0 0 55 219 2 8 56 0 0 40 Blue 205 218 222 214 212
Samaje Perine CIN 10 RB 27 0 0 0 37 150 1 19 134 1 0 36 Yellow 206 223 214 209 218
Joshua Kelley LAC 8 RB 25 0 0 0 46 161 2 11 85 1 0 36 Green 206 223 224 214 218
Travis Homer SEA 11 RB 24 0 0 0 32 160 1 17 117 1 0 36 Green 208 223 217 209 218
Kenny Golladay NYG 9 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 694 3 0 76 Red 208 188 195 203 231
Kyle Juszczyk SF 9 RB 31 0 0 0 8 27 0 24 205 1 0 31 Green 210 229 210 207 229
474 FANTASY PROJECTIONS
Flex 3WR Flex
Flex 3WR
Player Tm Bye Pos Age PaYd PaTD INT Ru RuYd RuTD Rec RcYd RcTD FL Fant Risk PPR PPR 10
Rk Rk
Rk Rk Rk
D'Ernest Johnson CLE 9 RB 26 0 0 0 30 142 1 11 76 1 0 31 Blue 210 231 230 216 231
Trevor Lawrence JAX 11 QB 23 3808 22 13 67 307 2 0 0 0 5 297 Blue 210 220 184 193 240
Derek Carr LV 6 QB 31 4392 25 13 40 132 1 0 0 0 7 301 Green 210 220 184 193 240
O.J. Howard BUF 7 TE 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 284 3 0 46 Green 214 223 263 257 217
Tony Jones NO 14 RB 25 0 0 0 48 158 1 6 45 0 0 30 Green 214 231 242 224 231
Trey Lance SF 9 QB 22 3424 20 12 122 571 5 0 0 0 4 290 Yellow 214 223 190 199 242
Sterling Shepard NYG 9 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 607 3 0 73 Yellow 214 196 190 193 242
Taysom Hill NO 14 TE 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 172 1 1 22 Green 218 229 270 270 218
Kyren Williams LAR 7 RB 22 0 0 0 33 129 1 11 76 1 0 28 Green 218 234 239 218 237
Kene Nwangwu MIN 7 RB 24 0 0 0 32 136 1 9 62 0 0 27 Green 218 234 242 221 237
Craig Reynolds DET 6 RB 26 0 0 0 38 155 1 6 42 0 0 27 Green 218 234 248 226 237
Robby Anderson CAR 13 WR 29 0 0 0 3 24 0 48 545 3 0 73 Yellow 218 196 203 212 242
K.J. Osborn MIN 7 WR 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 488 4 0 72 Green 218 196 217 224 248
Kendrick Bourne NE 10 WR 27 0 0 0 8 72 0 37 470 3 0 72 Green 218 196 222 226 248
Jahan Dotson WAS 14 WR 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 519 3 0 71 Green 225 202 210 216 248
Curtis Samuel WAS 14 WR 26 0 0 0 20 88 1 42 475 3 0 72 Red 225 202 220 226 248
Alec Pierce IND 14 WR 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 524 3 0 71 Green 225 202 214 218 254
Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE 9 WR 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 561 3 0 71 Green 225 208 217 221 254
Justin Fields CHI 14 QB 23 3373 19 14 124 726 4 0 0 0 12 287 Green 229 231 196 206 254
Skyy Moore KC 8 WR 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 501 3 0 70 Green 229 208 210 218 259
Corey Davis NYJ 10 WR 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 577 3 0 71 Yellow 229 208 224 233 254
Anthony McFarland PIT 9 RB 23 0 0 0 29 113 1 8 59 0 0 23 Green 229 241 248 230 242
Chuba Hubbard CAR 13 RB 23 0 0 0 30 104 1 9 69 0 0 23 Green 229 241 248 230 242
Tommy Tremble CAR 13 TE 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 295 2 0 43 Blue 229 234 256 251 229
Benny Snell PIT 9 RB 24 0 0 0 36 126 1 3 28 0 0 23 Green 229 241 259 238 242
Phillip Lindsay IND 14 RB 28 0 0 0 37 136 1 3 24 0 0 22 Green 229 244 259 241 248
Brandon Bolden LV 6 RB 32 0 0 0 20 90 1 10 80 0 0 22 Green 237 244 248 230 248
C.J. Uzomah NYJ 10 TE 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 298 2 0 42 Green 237 239 263 260 231
Dan Arnold JAX 11 TE 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 324 2 0 42 Green 237 239 266 263 231
Mo Alie-Cox IND 14 TE 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 309 2 0 42 Green 237 234 269 265 231
Devin Duvernay BAL 10 WR 25 0 0 0 8 68 0 39 415 3 0 68 Green 241 216 224 233 261
A.J. Green ARI 13 WR 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 514 3 0 69 Green 241 214 230 241 260
Ty Montgomery NE 10 RB 29 0 0 0 16 64 1 10 79 0 0 19 Green 241 246 256 233 254
Texans D HOU 6 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 244 247 230 245 185
Jake Elliott PHI 7 K 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 244 247 230 245 211
Parris Campbell IND 14 WR 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 555 3 0 67 Red 244 216 230 238 261
Dolphins D MIA 11 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 247 247 236 245 185
Panthers D CAR 13 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 247 247 236 245 185
Packers D GB 14 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 247 247 236 250 185
Zay Jones JAX 11 WR 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 493 3 0 66 Green 247 220 224 233 263
Cardinals D ARI 13 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 251 252 239 251 195
Colts D IND 14 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 252 252 242 254 195
Ravens D BAL 10 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Blue 252 254 242 254 195
Chris Boswell PIT 9 K 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 254 254 246 254 218
Randy Bullock TEN 6 K 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 254 256 246 257 225
Jamison Crowder BUF 7 WR 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 481 3 0 63 Yellow 254 228 229 238 264
Bucs D TB 11 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 257 259 248 260 207
Jason Sanders MIA 11 K 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 257 256 248 257 225
Younghoe Koo ATL 14 K 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 257 256 248 260 225
Bears D CHI 14 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow 260 261 256 264 212
Giants D NYG 9 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 261 261 259 265 212
Broncos D DEN 9 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 262 264 263 267 218
Ryan Tannehill TEN 6 QB 34 3340 22 13 49 247 5 0 0 0 5 275 Green 262 260 220 226 265
Chiefs D KC 8 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 264 265 266 268 218
Chargers D LAC 8 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Green 264 265 266 268 225
Jared Goff DET 6 QB 28 4104 24 11 19 63 1 0 0 0 5 281 Green 266 263 224 233 266
Mac Jones NE 10 QB 24 3873 25 13 40 133 1 0 0 0 4 276 Green 267 265 230 241 267
Davis Mills HOU 6 QB 24 3751 26 11 27 81 1 0 0 0 5 273 Green 268 268 239 244 268
Daniel Jones NYG 9 QB 25 3942 18 12 52 272 2 0 0 0 6 271 Green 269 269 255 245 269
Matt Ryan IND 14 QB 37 3826 22 11 46 115 2 0 0 0 5 268 Green 270 270 259 251 270
 Statistical Appendix
Broken Tackles by Team, Offense Broken Tackles by Team, Defense
Rk Team Plays Plays w/ BTkl BT/Play Total BTkl Rk Team Plays Plays w/ BTkl BT/Play Total BTkl
1 PIT 134 1057 15.3% 162 1 GB 986 80 9.0% 89
2 BUF 130 1092 14.1% 154 2 WAS 1012 78 9.5% 96
3 SF 116 996 14.1% 140 3 NYG 1091 101 10.2% 111
4 CIN 115 977 13.5% 132 4 MIN 1090 106 10.6% 116
5 ARI 122 1070 13.5% 144 5 DAL 1027 94 10.7% 110
6 LV 114 1029 13.1% 135 5 PHI 1027 96 10.7% 110
7 SEA 95 899 12.6% 113 7 NE 987 91 10.7% 106
8 DEN 111 989 12.5% 124 8 KC 1017 99 11.0% 112
9 GB 113 1016 12.5% 127 9 IND 1008 101 11.3% 114
10 CLE 106 990 12.3% 122 10 BUF 961 98 11.3% 109
11 KC 109 1086 11.9% 129 11 NO 1008 98 11.5% 116
12 PHI 104 1030 11.7% 121 12 TEN 991 95 11.6% 115
13 NE 97 1005 11.6% 117 13 SF 973 96 11.6% 113
14 IND 94 1007 11.5% 116 14 SEA 1150 113 11.8% 136
15 CHI 103 1005 11.4% 115 15 PIT 1051 105 11.9% 125
16 DET 99 1014 11.4% 116 16 CAR 964 99 11.9% 115
17 NYJ 88 974 11.4% 111 17 DEN 983 105 12.0% 118
18 DAL 99 1100 11.1% 122 18 NYJ 1089 109 12.0% 131
19 BAL 107 1112 11.1% 123 19 ATL 1079 119 12.2% 132
20 NO 86 998 10.5% 105 20 LV 1054 108 12.2% 129
21 ATL 89 955 10.3% 98 21 ARI 981 103 12.3% 121
22 TB 98 1095 10.2% 112 22 CHI 939 98 12.4% 116
23 MIA 91 1042 9.9% 103 23 LAR 1057 112 12.5% 132
24 CAR 92 1043 9.9% 103 24 TB 1041 120 12.9% 134
25 LAR 79 1010 9.3% 94 25 HOU 1049 120 13.0% 136
26 HOU 82 960 9.3% 89 26 LAC 1055 114 13.0% 137
27 NYG 74 999 9.2% 92 27 CLE 996 107 13.4% 133
28 JAX 77 986 9.1% 90 28 BAL 984 112 13.6% 134
29 TEN 83 1070 9.0% 96 29 MIA 1013 117 13.6% 138
30 WAS 74 1015 8.8% 89 30 CIN 1023 116 13.8% 141
31 MIN 76 1039 8.7% 90 31 JAX 1021 122 13.9% 142
32 LAC 74 1081 7.7% 83 32 DET 1034 137 15.4% 159
Play total includes Defensive Pass Interference. Play total includes Defensive Pass Interference.

Most Broken Tackles, Defenders

Rk Player Team BTkl Rk Player Team BTkl Rk Player Team BTkl
1 A.Anzalone DET 23 9 K.Moore IND 17 18 E.Kendricks MIN 15
2 P.Queen BAL 22 9 E.Roberts MIA 17 18 C.J.Mosley NYJ 15
2 D.White TB 22 12 B.Baker ARI 16 18 B.Okereke IND 15
4 M.Fitzpatrick PIT 20 12 J.Brooks SEA 16 18 G.Pratt CIN 15
4 A.Singleton PHI 20 12 J.Carter CAR 16 18 T.Reeder LAR 15
6 N.Adderley LAC 19 12 T.Crowder NYG 16 18 J.Schobert PIT 15
6 D.Jones ATL 19 12 K.Neal DAL 16 18 Qu.Williams NYJ 15
6 A.Wingard JAX 19 12 D.Sorensen KC 16
9 K.Jackson DEN 17 18 J.Abram LV 15

475
476 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 20 Defenders, Broken Tackle Rate Bottom 20 Defenders, Broken Tackle Rate
Rk Player Team BTkl Tkl Rate Rk Player Team BTkl Tkl Rate
1 By.Jones MIA 0 40 0.0% 1 A.Anzalone DET 23 43 34.8%
2 D.Campbell GB 5 89 5.3% 2 A.Wingard JAX 19 50 27.5%
3 B.Hall NYJ 4 59 6.3% 3 T.Reeder LAR 15 40 27.3%
3 C.Heyward PIT 3 42 6.7% 4 P.Queen BAL 22 61 26.5%
4 N.Needham MIA 3 42 6.7% 5 B.Breeland ARI 14 40 25.9%
4 J.Ward SF 3 42 6.7% 6 M.Hilton CIN 14 43 24.6%
7 M.Lattimore NO 4 53 7.0% 7 D.Long TEN 13 40 24.5%
8 J.Kearse DAL 5 59 7.8% 8 N.Adderley LAC 19 60 24.1%
9 C.Ward KC 4 42 8.7% 9 T.Crowder NYG 16 53 23.2%
10 R.Darby DEN 4 41 8.9% 10 G.Pratt CIN 15 50 23.1%
10 D.Tranquill LAC 4 41 8.9% 11 K.Jackson DEN 17 57 23.0%
12 K.Fuller WAS 6 60 9.1% 12 E.Jackson CHI 14 47 23.0%
12 M.Parsons DAL 6 60 9.1% 13 D.White TB 22 75 22.7%
14 L.David TB 6 57 9.5% 14 L.Collins WAS 13 47 21.7%
15 F.Oluokun ATL 10 91 9.9% 15 J.Davis WAS 11 40 21.6%
16 P.Adebo NO 6 52 10.3% 15 E.Harris ATL 11 40 21.6%
17 A.Amos GB 8 68 10.5% 15 T.Johnson BUF 11 40 21.6%
17 R.Smith CHI 10 85 10.5% 18 A.Singleton PHI 20 73 21.5%
19 B.Wagner SEA 9 76 10.6% 19 J.Owusu-Koramoah CLE 12 44 21.4%
20 E.Stokes GB 5 42 10.6% 20 B.Baker ARI 16 59 21.3%
Broken Tackles divided by Broken Tackles + Solo Tackles. Broken Tackles divided by Broken Tackles + Solo Tackles.
Special teams not included; min. 40 Solo Tackles Special teams not included; min. 40 Solo Tackles

Most Broken Tackles, Running Backs Most Broken Tackles, WR/TE

Rk Player Team Run Rec BTkl Rk Player Team BTkl
1 N.Harris PIT 46 41 87 1 D.Samuel* SF 37
2 J.Taylor IND 54 12 66 2 D.Johnson PIT 28
3 J.Jacobs LV 42 14 56 3 C.Kupp LAR 22
4 J.Conner ARI 35 17 52 3 C.Lamb DAL 22
4 D.Singletary BUF 40 12 52 3 H.Renfrow LV 22
6 J.Williams DEN 44 6 50 6 J.Chase CIN 21
7 M.Carter NYJ 28 17 45 7 S.Diggs BUF 20
7 A.Kamara NO 40 5 45 7 T.Hill KC 20
9 S.Michel LAR 35 8 43 7 L.Shenault JAX 20
10 N.Chubb CLE 35 6 41 10 B.Aiyuk SF 19
10 D.Swift DET 21 20 41 10 K.Toney NYG 19
12 A.Ekeler LAC 22 17 39 12 D.Adams GB 17
12 A.Gibson WAS 33 6 39 12 R.Moore ARI 17
12 A.Jones GB 30 9 39 14 A.Cooper DAL 15
12 J.Mixon CIN 33 6 39 15 M.Hardman KC 13
12 D.Montgomery CHI 30 9 39 15 D.Mooney CHI 13
17 D.Cook MIN 33 5 38 17 K.Bourne NE 12
17 M.Gordon DEN 31 7 38 17 T.Higgins CIN 12
19 L.Fournette TB 23 14 37 17 J.Waddle MIA 12
20 M.Davis ATL 16 20 36 20 6 tied with 11
*18 on runs, 19 on receptions
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 477

Most Broken Tackles, Quarterbacks

Rk Player Team BTkl Rk Player Team BTkl

1 J.Allen BUF 42 6 C.Newton CAR 11

2 L.Jackson BAL 41 8 T.Huntley BAL 10
3 J.Hurts PHI 26 8 M.Ryan ATL 10
4 T.Hill NO 12 8 R.Tannehill TEN 10
4 T.Lawrence JAX 12 8 C.Wentz IND 10
6 J.Fields CHI 11 10 R.Wilson SEA 7

Best Broken Tackle Rate, Offensive Best Yards After Contact

Players (min. 80 touches) (min. 100 carries)
Rk Player Team BTkl Touch Rate Rk Player Team YafC
1 T.Kelce KC 28 94 29.8% 1 R.Penny SEA 3.75
2 B.Bolden NE 24 85 28.2% 2 D.Johnson CLE 3.38
3 D.Samuel SF 37 136 27.2% 3 J.Taylor IND 3.30
4 D.Johnson CLE 31 119 26.1% 4 J.Williams DEN 3.29
5 D.Johnson PIT 28 112 25.0% 5 N.Chubb CLE 3.23
5 C.Lamb DAL 22 88 25.0% 6 D.Henry TEN 3.11
7 M.Carter NYJ 45 183 24.6% 7 T.Pollard DAL 3.11
8 J.Chase CIN 21 88 23.9% 8 R.Stevenson NE 3.09
9 N.Harris PIT 87 381 22.8% 9 M.Carter NYJ 3.03
10 D.Singletary BUF 52 228 22.8% 10 E.Mitchell SF 2.91
11 R.Stevenson NE 33 147 22.4%
12 J.Conner ARI 52 239 21.8%
13 R.Penny SEA 27 125 21.6%
Worst Yards After Contact
14 H.Renfrow LV 22 106 20.8%
15 J.Jacobs LV 56 271 20.7% (min. 100 carries)
16 J.Williams DEN 50 246 20.3%
17 Z.Moss BUF 24 119 20.2% Rk Player Team YafC
18 M.Davis ATL 36 182 19.8% 1 M.Gaskin MIA 1.62
19 S.Diggs BUF 20 103 19.4% 2 D.Freeman BAL 1.64
20 D.Swift DET 41 213 19.2% 3 D.Swift DET 1.66
4 D.Williams KC 1.76
5 D.Henderson LAR 2.03
6 D.Booker NYG 2.03
Worst Broken Tackle Rate, Offensive
7 M.Davis ATL 2.04
Players (min. 80 touches) 8 C.Edmonds ARI 2.07
9 S.Barkley NYG 2.10
Rk Player Team BTkl Touch Rate 10 A.Collins SEA 2.13
1 K.Allen LAC 3 106 2.8% 10 A.Gibson WAS 2.13
2 P.Lindsay MIA 4 92 4.3%
2 J.Meyers NE 4 84 4.8%
4 J.Jefferson MIN 6 114 5.3%
5 C.Beasley BUF 5 82 6.1%
6 J.D.McKissic WAS 6 91 6.6%
7 L.Murray BAL 9 129 7.0%
7 J.Wilson SF 6 86 7.0%
9 E.Elliott DAL 22 284 7.7%
10 J.Jackson LAC 7 90 7.8%
478 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 20 Defenders, Passes Defensed Top 20 Defenders, Defeats

Rk Player Team PD Rk Player Team Dfts
1 J.C.Jackson NE 23 1 C.Heyward PIT 36
2 T.Diggs DAL 21 1 T.J.Watt PIT 36
3 M.Lattimore NO 19 3 M.Parsons DAL 35
4 J.Bradberry NYG 17 4 A.Donald LAR 34
4 A.Brown DAL 17 5 L.Sneed KC 30
6 K.Fuller WAS 16 6 R.Quinn CHI 29
6 B.Hall NYJ 16 7 T.Edmunds BUF 28
6 X.Howard MIA 16 7 M.Milano BUF 28
6 J.Ramsey LAR 16 7 R.Smith CHI 28
6 A.J.Terrell ATL 16 10 M.Crosby LV 27
11 C.Awuzie CIN 14 10 D.Jones ATL 27
11 K.Fulton TEN 14 10 C.Jordan NO 27
11 E.Stokes GB 14 13 D.Leonard IND 26
11 P.Surtain DEN 14 14 N.Bosa SF 25
15 K.Byard TEN 13 14 B.Burns CAR 25
15 R.Douglas GB 13 14 D.Davis NO 25
15 B.Facyson LV 13 14 V.Miller 2TM 25
15 M.Humphrey BAL 13 14 K.White LAC 25
15 K.Moore IND 13 19 A.Al-Shaair SF 24
20 C.Clark BAL 12 19 M.Garrett CLE 24
20 M.Davis LAC 12 19 H.Reddick CAR 24
20 B.Murphy ARI 12
20 E.Ogbah MIA 12
20 J.Simmons DEN 12

Top 20 Defenders, Quarterback Hits Top 20 Defenders, QB

Rk Player Team Hits Knockdowns (Sacks + Hits)
1 M.Crosby LV 22 Rk Defender Team KD
2 J.Allen WAS 21 1 T.J.Watt PIT 40
3 M.Garrett CLE 20 2 M.Garrett CLE 37
4 U.Nwosu LAC 18 3 N.Bosa SF 32
4 M.Parsons DAL 18 3 M.Crosby LV 32
6 R.Gary GB 17 3 M.Parsons DAL 32
7 N.Bosa SF 15 6 J.Allen WAS 31
7 C.Jones ARI 15 7 T.Hendrickson CIN 30
7 A.Van Ginkel MIA 15 8 R.Gary GB 29
7 T.Watt PIT 15 9 A.Donald LAR 27
7 D.White TB 15 9 M.Judon NE 27
12 S.Barrett TB 14 11 S.Barrett TB 25
12 Y.Ngakoue LV 14 11 C.Jones ARI 25
14 F.Clark KC 13 11 Y.Ngakoue LV 25
14 T.Hendrickson CIN 13 11 E.Ogbah MIA 25
14 J.Houston BAL 13 15 H.Landry TEN 24
14 M.Judon NE 13 16 C.Jordan NO 23
14 E.Ogbah MIA 13 17 J.Bosa LAC 22
19 J.Bosa LAC 12 17 U.Nwosu LAC 22
19 G.Jarrett ATL 12 15 M.Sweat WAS 22
Includes plays nullified by penalty. 19 6 tied with 20
Full credit for whole and half sacks; includes sacks cancelled by penalty.
Does not include strip sacks.
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 479

Top 20 Defenders, Hurries Top 20 Quarterbacks, QB Hits

Rk Defender Team Hur Rk Player Team Hits
1 M.Crosby LV 49 1 M.Ryan ATL 93
2 A.Donald LAR 47 2 C.Wentz IND 77
3 R.Gary GB 45 3 J.Herbert LAC 74
4 L.Floyd LAR 42 4 J.Allen BUF 70
5 N.Bosa SF 41 5 K.Cousins MIN 69
5 M.Garrett CLE 41 6 R.Tannehill TEN 67
7 J.Bosa LAC 40 7 P.Mahomes KC 64
7 E.Ogbah MIA 40 8 J.Burrow CIN 59
9 T.Hendrickson CIN 39 9 T.Heinicke WAS 55
9 C.Jones KC 39 10 T.Lawrence JAX 54
9 M.Judon NE 39 10 D.Prescott DAL 54
12 M.Parsons DAL 38 12 D.Carr LV 53
13 D.Autry TEN 37 13 M.Jones NE 52
13 S.Barrett TB 37 14 J.Goff DET 51
15 C.Harris DET 36 15 T.Bridgewater DEN 50
15 J.Hughes BUF 36 16 R.Wilson SEA 49
15 H.Landry TEN 36 17 M.Stafford LAR 45
18 K.Clark GB 35 18 A.Rodgers GB 44
18 C.Heyward PIT 35 19 D.Jones NYG 42
20 S.Hubbard CIN 34 20 J.Garoppolo SF 39
20 Y.Ngakoue LV 34 Includes plays nullified by penalty.
20 J.Simmons TEN 34

Top 10 Quarterbacks,
Top 20 Quarterbacks, QB Knockdowns per Pass
Knockdowns (Sacks + Hits) Rk Player Team KD Pct
1 J.Fields CHI 74 22.6%
Rk Player Team KD
2 M.Ryan ATL 135 21.4%
1 M.Ryan ATL 135
3 C.Wentz IND 116 19.8%
2 C.Wentz IND 116
4 J.Burrow CIN 112 18.7%
3 R.Tannehill TEN 113
5 R.Tannehill TEN 113 18.6%
4 J.Burrow CIN 112
6 R.Wilson SEA 82 18.0%
5 J.Herbert LAC 110
7 T.Bridgewater DEN 81 17.0%
6 J.Allen BUF 96
8 T.Heinicke WAS 92 16.3%
6 K.Cousins MIN 96
9 D.Jones NYG 65 15.9%
8 T.Heinicke WAS 92
10 J.Brissett MIA 41 15.8%
8 P.Mahomes KC 92
Min. 200 passes; includes passes cancelled by penalty
10 D.Carr LV 90
11 T.Lawrence JAX 87
12 J.Goff DET 83
Bottom 10 Quarterbacks
13 R.Wilson SEA 82
14 T.Bridgewater DEN 81 in Knockdowns per Pass
14 M.Jones NE 81 Rk Player Team KD Pct
14 D.Prescott DAL 81 1 T.Brady TB 60 7.8%
17 J.Fields CHI 74 2 K.Murray ARI 47 8.8%
17 A.Rodgers GB 74 3 B.Roethlisberger PIT 73 10.7%
17 M.Stafford LAR 74 4 T.Tagovailoa MIA 49 11.2%
20 B.Roethlisberger PIT 73 5 M.Stafford LAR 74 11.2%
Includes sacks cancelled by penalties 6 A.Dalton CHI 31 11.9%
Does not include strip sacks or "self sacks" with no defender listed. 7 D.Prescott DAL 81 12.0%
8 J.Hurts PHI 58 12.1%
9 B.Mayfield CLE 59 12.2%
10 P.Mahomes KC 92 12.6%
Min. 200 passes; includes passes cancelled by penalty
480 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 10 Most Passes Tipped Top 10 Tipped at the Line, Defenders

at Line, Quarterbacks Rk Player Team Total
Rk Player Team Total 1 E.Ogbah MIA 11
1 J.Allen BUF 17 2 C.Heyward PIT 9
2 J.Herbert LAC 16 3 C.Dunlap SEA 6
3 B.Roethlisberger PIT 14 3 J.Simmons TEN 6
4 M.Ryan ATL 12 3 T.J.Watt PIT 6
5 T.Heinicke WAS 11 6 D.Autry TEN 5
5 L.Jackson BAL 11 6 K.Van Noy NE 5
5 D.Prescott DAL 11 8 8 tied with 4
5 R.Tannehill TEN 11
9 5 tied with 10

2021 Quarterbacks with and without Pass Pressure

Pct DVOA with Yds with DVOA w/o Yds w/o
Rank Player Team Plays DVOA Dif Rank
Pressure Pressure Pressure Pressure Pressure
1 T.Brady TB 760 15.7% -39.7% 3.4 58.7% 7.8 -98.4% 12
2 B.Roethlisberger PIT 655 16.9% -119.8% 1.7 26.1% 6.4 -145.9% 26
3 M.Stafford LAR 646 18.1% -94.8% 3.1 55.5% 8.3 -150.3% 28
4 A.Rodgers GB 587 20.4% -94.9% 1.3 81.1% 8.7 -176.1% 34
5 A.Dalton CHI 268 20.9% -76.2% 1.1 10.1% 6.9 -86.3% 7
6 M.Jones NE 576 22.7% -57.1% 2.8 42.9% 7.7 -100.0% 13
7 D.Prescott DAL 659 23.2% -22.2% 4.5 47.5% 7.7 -69.7% 2
8 J.Garoppolo SF 478 23.4% -95.4% 3.1 64.7% 9.2 -160.1% 33
9 T.Tagovailoa MIA 429 23.5% -81.2% 3.3 47.8% 7.1 -129.0% 20
10 J.Herbert LAC 749 24.4% -31.6% 3.5 53.9% 8.1 -85.4% 6
11 R.Tannehill TEN 606 24.6% -110.4% 1.9 44.8% 7.6 -155.2% 31
12 P.Mahomes KC 738 24.9% -39.7% 5.2 57.7% 7.6 -97.4% 11
13 T.Huntley BAL 231 25.1% -100.0% 1.0 39.4% 6.6 -139.5% 24
14 B.Mayfield CLE 494 26.1% -108.7% 1.8 44.0% 7.5 -152.7% 30
15 J.Goff DET 542 26.2% -105.9% 2.7 32.7% 6.9 -138.6% 23
16 T.Heinicke WAS 578 26.6% -71.0% 3.1 37.2% 7.2 -108.2% 15
17 J.Burrow CIN 596 26.7% -98.3% 2.1 60.8% 9.4 -159.1% 32
18 T.Lawrence JAX 670 26.9% -85.9% 2.1 15.8% 6.9 -101.7% 14
19 T.Bridgewater DEN 478 27.0% -55.9% 2.8 63.6% 7.7 -119.5% 19
20 K.Murray ARI 548 27.4% -41.1% 4.8 51.2% 7.8 -92.3% 9
21 D.Mills HOU 440 27.5% -100.4% 2.6 31.9% 7.2 -132.3% 22
22 D.Carr LV 693 27.7% -73.2% 4.3 44.8% 8.3 -118.0% 18
23 C.Wentz IND 587 28.3% -76.2% 3.5 39.7% 7.6 -115.9% 17
24 D.Jones NYG 416 28.4% -100.7% 2.6 31.4% 7.3 -132.1% 21
25 L.Jackson BAL 468 28.4% -39.9% 4.4 33.5% 7.7 -73.4% 3
26 K.Cousins MIN 605 28.9% -78.3% 3.3 68.2% 8.5 -146.5% 27
27 J.Allen BUF 726 29.5% -26.2% 4.4 40.5% 7.4 -66.6% 1
28 M.Ryan ATL 627 30.1% -66.2% 3.7 28.4% 7.3 -94.6% 10
29 J.Hurts PHI 511 30.3% -39.6% 3.9 42.6% 8.2 -82.3% 5
30 Z.Wilson NYJ 449 30.5% -120.6% 0.9 29.9% 7.1 -150.5% 29
31 S.Darnold CAR 465 31.4% -97.6% 2.7 15.1% 6.6 -112.7% 16
32 R.Wilson SEA 465 32.3% -33.1% 4.6 57.6% 7.9 -90.7% 8
33 J.Brissett MIA 261 34.5% -62.8% 2.5 13.9% 6.3 -76.7% 4
34 J.Fields CHI 354 34.7% -103.3% 2.1 38.3% 7.9 -141.6% 25
Includes scrambles and Defensive Pass Interference. Does not include aborted snaps.
Minimum: 200 passes.
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 481

WR: Highest Slot/Wide Ratio of Targets WR: Highest Wide/Slot Ratio of Targets
Rk Player Team Slot Wide Slot% Rk Player Team Slot Wide Wide%
1 J.Crowder NYJ 66 4 94% 1 D.Parker MIA 14 61 81%
2 T.Boyd CIN 87 6 94% 2 A.J.Green ARI 17 74 81%
3 R.McCloud PIT 60 5 92% 3 D.Johnson PIT 33 141 81%
4 H.Renfrow LV 119 10 92% 4 J.Chase CIN 27 101 79%
5 C.Wilson DAL 57 5 92% 5 M.Gallup DAL 14 51 78%
6 B.Berrios NYJ 57 7 89% 6 D.Hopkins ARI 15 48 76%
7 A.Humphries WAS 56 7 89% 7 D.Slayton NYG 16 44 73%
8 J.Jeudy DEN 50 7 88% 8 R.Bateman BAL 20 51 72%
9 C.Beasley BUF 98 14 88% 9 DK Metcalf SEA 39 92 70%
10 C.Kupp LAR 156 23 87% 10 J.Reagor PHI 18 41 69%
11 J.Meyers NE 112 17 87% 11 C.Sutton DEN 32 72 69%
12 Z.Pascal IND 61 11 85% 12 A.Brown TB 20 43 68%
13 A.Lazard GB 51 10 84% 13 C.Claypool PIT 36 74 67%
14 A.St. Brown DET 92 19 83% 14 S.Diggs BUF 56 112 67%
15 C.Godwin TB 105 23 82% 15 M.Williams LAC 45 87 66%
16 R.Moore ARI 50 11 82% 16 K.Golladay NYG 28 52 65%
17 C.Kirk ARI 81 20 80% 17 N.Collins HOU 22 40 65%
18 K.Allen LAC 122 35 78% 18 T.Higgins CIN 42 73 63%
19 T.Smith NO 38 12 76% 19 N.Agholor NE 26 43 62%
20 S.Shepard NYG 42 14 75% 20 D.J.Moore CAR 63 97 61%
Min. 50 passes. Slot includes lined up tight. Min. 50 passes. Slot includes lined up tight.

Top 10 WR Better Lined Up Wide Top 10 WR Better Lined Up Slot

Rk Player Team Slot Wide Slot Wide Dif Rk Player Team Slot Wide Slot Wide Dif
1 R.Woods LAR 48 22 -5.3% 52.3% 57.5% 1 M.Valdes-Scantling GB 26 29 31.2% -51.1% 82.3%
2 K.Toney NYG 34 21 -19.6% 10.9% 30.4% 2 B.Edwards LV 32 30 40.3% -21.3% 61.5%
3 T.McLaurin WAS 69 63 -11.0% 16.1% 27.1% 3 J.Jefferson MIN 81 89 46.1% -9.0% 55.0%
4 A.Brown TEN 57 49 -10.7% 15.3% 26.0% 4 M.Williams LAC 45 87 43.0% -8.1% 51.2%
5 D.Harris NO 36 21 11.8% 37.3% 25.5% 5 C.Davis NYJ 35 27 23.0% -28.0% 51.0%
6 K.Golladay NYG 28 52 -33.0% -10.7% 22.3% 6 M.Callaway NO 41 44 26.8% -18.6% 45.4%
7 B.Cooks HOU 77 63 -5.9% 13.8% 19.7% 7 J.Landry CLE 58 28 5.9% -38.4% 44.3%
8 E.Sanders BUF 35 37 4.1% 18.9% 14.8% 8 O.Beckham 2TM 39 44 8.8% -30.3% 39.1%
9 R.Gage ATL 68 25 -1.1% 11.1% 12.2% 9 B.Aiyuk SF 47 39 38.8% 1.0% 37.9%
10 A.Robinson CHI 37 32 -14.8% -2.6% 12.2% 10 K.Cole NYJ 25 28 33.9% -3.6% 37.5%
Min. 20 targets from each position Min. 20 targets from each position

Top 10 TE Highest Rate of Targets Top 10 TE Lowest Rate of Targets

from WR Positions (Slot/Wide) from WR Positions (Slot/Wide)
Rk Player Team Tight Slot Wide Back WR% Rk Player Team Tight Slot Wide Back WR%
1 M.Gesicki MIA 13 87 9 3 86% 1 M.Lewis GB 28 0 0 0 0%
2 K.Pitts ATL 20 69 25 0 82% 2 Z.Gentry PIT 23 2 0 0 8%
3 A.Firkser TEN 11 33 0 0 75% 3 T.Kroft NYJ 22 3 0 1 12%
4 M.Andrews BAL 39 105 9 0 75% 4 A.Okwuegbunam DEN 33 5 1 1 15%
5 E.Engram NYG 21 51 4 0 72% 5 R.Griffin NYJ 30 8 0 4 19%
6 T.Kelce KC 37 92 7 1 72% 5 P.Brown HOU 25 7 0 2 21%
7 D.Arnold 2TM 17 34 2 0 68% 7 T.Conklin MIN 66 17 4 0 24%
8 T.Hockenson DET 30 47 8 1 64% 8 J.Akins HOU 25 6 2 0 24%
9 J.Cook LAC 30 52 1 0 64% 9 G.Swaim TEN 27 10 0 4 24%
10 D.Waller LV 38 48 7 0 59% 10 N.Fant DEN 66 22 0 1 25%
Min. 25 passes Min. 25 passes
482 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 10 RB Highest Rate of Targets Top 20 Players, Passes Dropped

from WR Positions (Slot/Wide) Rk Player Team Total
Rk Player Team Back Slot Wide Tight WR% 1 J.Chase CIN 11
1 C.Patterson ATL 20 21 26 2 68% 1 D.Samuel SF 11
2 N.Hines IND 31 16 11 0 47% 3 J.Jefferson MIN 10
3 J.D.McKissic WAS 33 9 11 1 37% 3 L.Shenault JAX 10
4 K.Juszczyk SF 18 8 5 7 34% 5 T.Hill KC 9
5 A.Kamara NO 45 12 9 1 31% 6 K.Allen LAC 8
6 R.Burkhead HOU 21 6 4 1 31% 6 D.J.Moore CAR 8
7 T.Pollard DAL 31 6 8 1 30% 6 T.Johnson NYJ 8
8 A.Jones GB 42 9 10 4 29% 6 J.Waddle MIA 8
9 D.Johnson HOU 30 4 7 1 26% 10 S.Barkley NYG 7
10 C.Edmonds ARI 40 4 8 0 23% 10 M.Brown BAL 7
Min. 25 passes 10 G.Davis BUF 7
10 L.Fournette TB 7
10 N.Harris PIT 7
10 C.Hubbard CAR 7
Top 10 Teams, Pct Passes Dropped 10 D.Johnson PIT 7
Rk Team Passes Drops Pct 10 A.Kamara NO 7
1 HOU 505 12 2.4% 10 C.Lamb DAL 7
2 GB 562 15 2.7% 10 M.Williams LAC 7
3 NE 510 14 2.7% 20 11 tied with 6
4 SEA 460 13 2.8%
5 ARI 551 17 3.1%
6 WAS 518 18 3.5% Top 20 Players, Pct. Passes Dropped
7 BAL 564 21 3.7%
8 MIN 558 21 3.8% Rk Player Team Drops Passes Pct
9 CHI 506 20 4.0% 1 C.Hubbard CAR 7 37 18.9%
10 ATL 539 23 4.3% 2 T.Benson DET 4 23 17.4%
Adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away. 3 D.Johnson CLE 4 25 16.0%
4 T.Johnson NYJ 8 55 14.5%
5 S.Barkley NYG 7 57 12.3%
6 J.O'Shaughnessy JAX 4 34 11.8%
Bottom 10 Teams, Pct Passes Dropped 7 G.Davis BUF 7 63 11.1%
Rk Team Passes Drops Pct 8 J.Robinson JAX 5 46 10.9%
23 SF 484 25 5.2% 9 J.Jennings SF 4 38 10.5%
24 PIT 636 33 5.2% 10 A.Kamara NO 7 67 10.4%
25 PHI 451 26 5.8% 11 D.Slayton NYG 6 58 10.3%
26 BUF 600 35 5.8% 12 J.Agnew JAX 4 39 10.3%
27 NYG 547 32 5.9% 13 D.Cook MIN 5 49 10.2%
28 CAR 551 33 6.0% 13 S.Watkins BAL 5 49 10.2%
29 LAC 634 38 6.0% 15 K.Gainwell PHI 5 50 10.0%
30 NO 449 27 6.0% 15 D.Henderson LAR 4 40 10.0%
31 NYJ 559 40 7.2% 15 L.Shenault JAX 10 100 10.0%
32 JAX 557 41 7.4% 15 D.Singletary BUF 5 50 10.0%
Adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away. 19 A.Gibson WAS 5 52 9.6%
20 S.Shepard NYG 5 53 9.4%
20 J.Williams DEN 5 53 9.4%
Min. four drops
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 483

Top 20 Yards Lost to Top 20 Intended Receivers

Drops by Quarterbacks on Interceptions
Rk Player Team Drops Yds Rk Player Team Total
1 T.Lawrence JAX 41 292 1 M.Andrews BAL 9
2 T.Brady TB 31 279 2 D.Mooney CHI 8
3 J.Allen BUF 34 272 3 R.Anderson CAR 7
4 J.Herbert LAC 38 254 3 J.Waddle MIA 7
5 P.Mahomes KC 28 245 5 J.Chase CIN 6
6 C.Wentz IND 24 244 5 S.Diggs BUF 6
7 J.Burrow CIN 23 237 5 D.Harris NO 6
8 Z.Wilson NYJ 31 231 5 G.Kittle SF 6
9 M.Stafford LAR 29 217 5 C.Lamb DAL 6
10 M.Ryan ATL 23 213 5 D.J.Moore CAR 6
11 L.Jackson BAL 16 200 11 K.Allen LAC 5
12 D.Prescott DAL 26 191 11 C.Davis NYJ 5
13 B.Roethlisberger PIT 31 178 11 R.Gage ATL 5
14 D.Carr LV 26 175 11 Z.Jones LV 5
15 R.Tannehill TEN 22 171 11 T.Kelce KC 5
16 J.Hurts PHI 22 163 11 C.Kupp LAR 5
17 B.Mayfield CLE 21 146 11 J.Landry CLE 5
18 D.Jones NYG 18 131 11 K.Pitts ATL 5
19 S.Darnold CAR 28 124 19 9 tied with 4
20 J.Goff DET 22 122
Based on yardage in the air, no possible YAC included.

Top 10 Completion Bottom 10 Completion

Percentage Over Expected Percentage Over Expected
Rk Player Team CPOE Rk Player Team CPOE
1 K.Murray ARI 6.3% 1 Z.Wilson NYJ -10.2%
2 J.Burrow CIN 5.4% 2 S.Darnold CAR -5.2%
3 A.Rodgers GB 3.7% 3 T.Lawrence JAX -4.3%
4 D.Carr LV 3.6% 4 J.Fields CHI -4.0%
5 T.Bridgewater DEN 3.6% 5 B.Roethlisberger PIT -3.4%
6 K.Cousins MIN 3.1% 6 C.Wentz IND -2.5%
7 D.Mills HOU 2.7% 7 B.Mayfield CLE -2.4%
8 D.Prescott DAL 2.7% 8 J.Brissett MIA -2.1%
9 R.Wilson SEA 2.4% 9 A.Dalton CHI -1.9%
10 M.Jones NE 2.4% 10 D.Jones NYG -1.9%
Min. 200 passes; CPOE adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away. Min. 200 passes; CPOE adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away.

Top 10 Plus/Minus for Wide Receivers Bottom 10 Plus/Minus for Wide Receivers
Rk Player Team Pass +/- Rk Player Team Pass +/-
1 C.Kupp LAR 191 +17.3 1 R.Anderson CAR 110 -17.0
2 H.Renfrow LV 128 +14.6 2 D.J.Moore CAR 163 -9.5
3 D.Adams GB 169 +13.6 3 Z.Pascal IND 69 -9.2
4 C.Kirk ARI 101 +13.4 4 D.Slayton NYG 58 -7.8
5 T.Lockett SEA 107 +12.0 5 K.Golladay NYG 76 -7.2
6 J.Jefferson MIN 167 +9.7 6 O.Beckham 2TM 82 -6.3
7 C.Godwin TB 127 +9.6 7 C.Claypool PIT 106 -5.9
8 A.St. Brown DET 119 +8.6 8 L.Shenault JAX 100 -5.6
9 T.Hill KC 159 +8.3 9 R.McCloud PIT 65 -5.6
10 M.Evans TB 114 +7.7 10 D.Mooney CHI 140 -5.2
Min. 50 passes; plus/minus adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away. Min. 50 passes; plus/minus adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away.
484 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 10 Plus/Minus for Tight Ends Bottom 10 Plus/Minus for Tight Ends
Rk Player Team Pass +/- Rk Player Team Pass +/-
1 M.Andrews BAL 153 +8.3 1 R.Seals-Jones WAS 49 -5.6
2 D.Schultz DAL 104 +5.8 2 J.Smith NE 45 -5.5
3 G.Kittle SF 94 +5.4 3 E.Engram NYG 73 -4.8
4 D.Goedert PHI 76 +5.4 4 D.Waller LV 93 -4.8
5 H.Henry NE 75 +5.2 5 C.Brate TB 57 -4.6
6 D.Smythe MIA 41 +4.8 6 A.Hooper CLE 61 -4.5
7 N.Fant DEN 90 +4.8 7 J.Cook LAC 83 -4.4
8 G.Everett SEA 63 +4.5 8 I.Thomas CAR 30 -3.9
9 H.Hurst ATL 31 +3.3 9 R.Griffin NYJ 42 -3.2
10 J.Bates WAS 25 +3.2 10 M.Alie-Cox IND 45 -3.1
Min. 25 passes; plus/minus adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away. Min. 25 passes; plus/minus adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away.

Top 10 Plus/Minus for Running Backs Bottom 10 Plus/Minus for Running Backs
Rk Player Team Pass +/- Rk Player Team Pass +/-
1 C.McCaffrey CAR 41 +5.7 1 T.Johnson NYJ 55 -8.0
2 J.Conner ARI 40 +4.4 2 S.Michel LAR 33 -6.4
3 A.Dillon GB 37 +3.3 3 E.Elliott DAL 66 -6.0
4 C.Patterson ATL 69 +3.2 4 A.Kamara NO 67 -5.8
5 K.Juszczyk SF 38 +2.7 5 M.Carter NYJ 56 -5.2
6 D.Montgomery CHI 51 +2.5 6 J.Robinson JAX 46 -5.1
7 J.Williams DET 28 +2.4 7 D.Cook MIN 49 -4.7
8 T.Pollard DAL 46 +2.3 8 S.Barkley NYG 57 -4.2
9 D.Freeman BAL 42 +2.3 9 K.Gainwell PHI 50 -4.0
10 D.Booker NYG 45 +2.3 10 C.Hubbard CAR 37 -3.6
Min. 25 passes; plus/minus adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away. Min. 25 passes; plus/minus adjusted for passes tipped/thrown away.

Top 10 Quarterbacks, Top 10 Receivers, Yards Top 10 Defenders, Yards

Yards Gained on Defensive Gained on Defensive Allowed on Defensive
Pass Interference Pass Interference Pass Interference
Rk Player Team Pen Yds Rk Player Team Pen Yds Rk Player Team Pen Yds
1 D.Carr LV 13 324 1 B.Cooks HOU 7 128 1 A.Samuel LAC 3 104
2 C.Wentz IND 13 284 2 T.Lockett SEA 5 123 2 F.Moreau ATL 7 95
3 Z.Wilson NYJ 7 194 3 C.Sutton DEN 6 104 3 A.Brown DAL 4 91
4 A.Rodgers GB 12 167 4 J.Reagor PHI 2 95 4 C.Harris LAC 3 82
5 R.Tannehill TEN 10 165 5 B.Aiyuk SF 3 86 5 D.Jackson CAR 5 77
6 R.Wilson SEA 9 163 6 J.Jefferson MIN 4 84 6 B.Breeland MIN 4 76
7 T.Brady TB 11 160 7 K.Cole NYJ 3 82 6 M.Wilson ARI 5 76
8 J.Herbert LAC 11 155 8 R.Bateman BAL 3 80 8 W.Jackson WAS 5 75
9 B.Roethlisberger PIT 11 148 9 M.Goodwin CHI 3 79 8 J.Norman SF 4 75
10 T.Lawrence JAX 7 146 9 T.Higgins CIN 5 79 10 E.Apple CIN 4 67
9 Z.Jones LV 2 79
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 485

Top 20 First Downs/Touchdowns Top 20 Passing Yards Allowed, Coverage

Allowed, Coverage
Rk Player Team Yards Rk Player Team Yards Rk Player Team Yards Rk Player Team Yards
1 D.King HOU 35 8 K.Moore IND 31 1 T.Diggs DAL 840 12 A.Oruwariye DET 486
2 P.Adebo NO 34 12 A.Brown DAL 30 2 M.Lattimore NO 627 13 T.Mitchell HOU 479
2 J.Bradberry NYG 34 12 M.Lattimore NO 30 3 A.Brown DAL 605 14 T.Campbell JAX 465
4 B.Breeland MIN 33 12 F.Moreau ATL 30 4 P.Adebo NO 603 15 B.Hall NYJ 464
4 T.Diggs DAL 33 12 P.Surtain DEN 30 5 D.King HOU 567 16 M.Wilson ARI 453
4 M.Wilson ARI 33 16 By.Jones MIA 29 6 B.Breeland MIN 566 17 C.Sutton PIT 451
7 B.Hall NYJ 32 17 B.Facyson LV 28 7 By.Jones MIA 565 18 B.Echols NYJ 444
8 A.Averett BAL 31 18 B.Echols NYJ 26 8 M.Humphrey BAL 550 19 F.Moreau ATL 440
8 K.Fuller WAS 31 18 A.Oruwariye DET 26 9 J.Bradberry NYG 548 20 K.Fuller WAS 436
8 T.Mitchell HOU 31 20 T.Campbell JAX 26 10 A.Averett BAL 525 20 J.Johnson CHI 436
Includes Defensive Pass Interference. 11 X.Howard MIA 498
Includes Defensive Pass Interference.

Fewest Yards After Catch Allowed, Most Yards After Catch Allowed,
Coverage by Cornerbacks Coverage by Cornerbacks
Rk Player Team YAC Rk Player Team YAC
1 R.Ya-Sin IND 1.1 1 T.Diggs DAL 8.6
2 A.Jackson NYG 1.3 2 M.Humphrey BAL 6.6
3 J.Ramsey LAR 1.6 3 C.Sullivan GB 5.8
4 C.Dantzler MIN 1.7 4 M.Lattimore NO 5.6
5 A.J.Terrell ATL 1.7 5 J.Johnson CHI 5.5
6 K.Moore IND 2.0 6 M.Alexander MIN 5.3
7 M.Wilson ARI 2.3 7 By.Jones MIA 5.3
8 R.Darby DEN 2.3 8 X.Rhodes IND 5.0
9 C.Awuzie CIN 2.4 9 N.Hobbs LV 5.0
10 K.Fuller WAS 2.4 10 J.Jackson NE 4.9
11 R.Douglas GB 2.5 11 B.Breeland MIN 4.8
12 T.Mitchell HOU 2.5 12 K.Fulton TEN 4.7
12 I.Rodgers IND 2.5 13 T.Johnson BUF 4.7
14 A.Samuel LAC 2.5 14 C.Davis TB 4.7
15 L.Wallace BUF 2.5 15 P.Adebo NO 4.6
16 S.Nelson PHI 2.6 16 X.Howard MIA 4.5
17 R.Fenton KC 2.6 17 E.Apple CIN 4.4
18 D.Reed SEA 2.7 18 A.Brown DAL 4.4
19 J.Jenkins TEN 2.7 19 K.Fuller DEN 4.3
20 D.Williams LAR 2.7 20 W.Jackson WAS 4.3
Min. 50 passes or 8 games started. Min. 50 passes or 8 games started.
486 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 20 Defenders, Run Tackles for Loss Fewest Avg Yards on Run Tackle,
Rk Player Team TFL Defensive Line or Edge Rusher
1 N.Bolton KC 13 Rk Player Team Tkl Avg
2 K.White LAC 12 1 V.Miller 2TM 31 0.9
3 D.Davis NO 11 2 F.Fatukasi NYJ 45 1.1
3 A.Donald LAR 11 3 M.Crosby LV 39 1.1
3 C.Heyward PIT 11 4 D.J.Jones SF 47 1.1
3 C.Wilkins MIA 11 5 C.Jones ARI 26 1.2
7 T.Edmunds BUF 10 6 J.Madubuike BAL 31 1.3
7 A.Highsmith PIT 10 7 F.Luvu CAR 28 1.4
7 Qu.Williams NYJ 10 8 C.Jordan NO 44 1.4
10 F.Fatukasi NYJ 9 9 E.Oliver BUF 35 1.4
10 K.Grugier-Hill HOU 9 10 A.Donald LAR 65 1.5
10 D.J.Jones SF 9 11 J.Simmons TEN 37 1.5
10 M.Milano BUF 9 12 N.Bosa SF 34 1.6
10 V.Miller 2TM 9 13 P.Ford SEA 40 1.6
10 E.Oliver BUF 9 14 D.Brown CAR 36 1.8
10 R.Smith CHI 9 15 A.Woods SEA 46 1.8
17 N.Bosa SF 8 16 F.Cox PHI 28 1.8
17 M.Crosby LV 8 17 T.J.Watt PIT 35 1.9
17 C.Jones ARI 8 18 R.Lopez HOU 30 1.9
17 F.Luvu CAR 8 19 D.J.Reader CIN 36 1.9
17 F.Oluokun ATL 8 20 C.Campbell BAL 44 1.9
17 M.Parsons DAL 8 Min. 25 run tackles
17 P.Queen BAL 8
17 G.Rousseau BUF 8
Includes both tackles and assists.

Fewest Avg Yards on Run Tackle, LB Fewest Avg Yards on Run Tackle, DB
Rk Player Team Tkl Avg Rk Player Team Tkl Avg
1 Z.Cunningham HOU 52 2.2 1 M.Hilton CIN 23 2.6
2 J.Griffith DEN 25 2.6 2 J.Ramsey LAR 22 2.8
3 D.Hightower NE 35 2.7 3 K.Moore IND 35 2.9
4 M.Parsons DAL 48 2.8 4 A.Maulet PIT 26 3.1
5 R.Evans TEN 29 2.8 5 T.Hill CLE 22 3.1
6 J.Bynes BAL 46 2.8 6 T.Johnson BUF 32 3.2
7 S.Thompson CAR 56 2.9 7 M.Harris SF 25 3.4
8 D.Leonard IND 76 2.9 8 J.Whitehead TB 34 3.5
9 P.Werner NO 41 3.0 9 B.Facyson LV 22 3.8
10 M.Smith CLE 29 3.0 10 J.Adams SEA 51 3.9
11 P.Queen BAL 59 3.0 11 K.Dugger NE 45 3.9
12 T.Reeder LAR 53 3.1 12 A.Phillips NE 48 4.0
13 G.Avery PHI 33 3.2 13 M.Carter NYJ 26 4.2
14 E.Roberts MIA 62 3.2 14 L.Sneed KC 28 4.2
15 W.Gay KC 35 3.2 15 K.Curl WAS 37 4.5
16 K.Wright LV 39 3.3 16 A.Maddox PHI 21 4.6
17 N.Bolton KC 72 3.3 17 T.Thomas HOU 37 4.8
18 N.Vigil MIN 48 3.4 18 N.Hobbs LV 32 4.8
19 J.Carter CAR 60 3.5 19 K.Willis IND 37 4.9
20 A.Al-Shaair SF 52 3.5 20 L.Collins WAS 46 5.1
Min. 25 run tackles Min. 20 run tackles
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 487

Top 20 Offensive Tackles, Blown Blocks Top 20 Offensive Tackles in

All All
Snaps per Blown Block
Rk Player Pos Team Sacks Total
Pass Run All All Snaps
Rk Player Pos Team Sacks Total Snaps
1 L.Eichenberg LT MIA 10 42 7 49 Pass Run per BB
2 S.Norton RT LAC 6 38 4 42 1 T.Wirfs RT TB 1.5 9 4 13 1183 91.0
3 A.Villanueva LT BAL 6.5 31 6 39 2 T.Williams LT SF 0 7 4 11 933 84.8
4 E.Fisher LT IND 6.5 28 10 38 3 L.Johnson RT PHI 0 6 4 10 821 82.1
4 D.Quessenberry RT TEN 6.5 23 15 38 4 A.Whitworth LT LAR 4 7 4 12 926 77.2
6 D.Moore LT PIT 6 30 6 37 5 K.Beachum RT ARI 0.5 10 5 15 948 63.2
7 N.Solder RT NYG 6 33 3 36 6 T.Brown RT NE 0.5 4 4 8 490 61.3
7 D.Williams RT/RG BUF 4 29 7 36 7 T.Moton RT CAR 2.5 15 5 20 1149 57.5
9 J.Davis RT MIA 5.5 26 8 35 8 C.Okorafor RT PIT 2 13 6 19 1079 56.8
10 K.McGary RT ATL 6 24 9 33 9 R.Slater LT LAC 3.5 17 4 21 1116 53.1
10 M.Moses RT NYJ 4 26 7 33 10 B.O'Neill RT MIN 1.5 11 12 23 1141 49.6
12 D.J.Humphries LT ARI 6.5 26 6 32 11 E.Jenkins LT GB 2.5 10 0 10 496 49.6
12 J.Williams LT CIN 5 22 9 32 12 L.Collins RT DAL 2 11 3 14 672 48.0
14 K.Miller LT LV 3.5 21 9 30 13 B.Turner RT GB 1 10 7 17 810 47.6
14 C.Robinson LT JAX 1.5 20 10 30 14 B.Smith RT IND 3.5 7 8 15 713 47.5
16 O.Brown LT KC 3 25 4 29 15 R.Reiff RT CIN 3 5 10 15 712 47.5
16 T.Steele RT/LT DAL 2 20 9 29 16 T.Armstead LT NO 2 5 4 10 467 46.7
16 J.Taylor RT JAX 5 20 9 29 17 R.Ramczyk RT NO 3 8 6 14 653 46.6
19 B.Hance RT/G CLE 4 23 5 28 18 T.Smith LT DAL 1 11 5 16 740 46.3
19 C.Leno LT WAS 4.5 20 7 28 19 D.Smith LT TB 1.5 14 10 25 1148 45.9
20 D.Brown LT SEA 6 17 5 22 970 44.1
Minimum: 400 snaps

Top 20 Interior Linemen, Blown Blocks Top 20 Interior Linemen in

All All Snaps per Blown Block
Rk Player Pos Team Sacks Total
Pass Run All All Snaps
Rk Player Pos Team Sacks Total Snaps
1 J.Mayfield LG ATL 9.5 36 13 49 Pass Run per BB
2 A.Leatherwood RG LV 3.5 26 12 41 1 C.Linsley C LAC 0 5 2 7 1077 153.9
3 T.Smith RG KC 2.5 23 12 35 2 K.Dotson LG PIT 0 1 3 4 565 141.3
4 O.Udoh RG/LT MIN 1 21 9 32 3 R.Hudson C ARI 1 2 4 6 798 133.0
5 M.Hennessy C ATL 2 16 15 31 4 C.Humphrey C KC 1 5 3 9 1185 131.7
5 M.Skura LG NYG 0.5 20 11 31 5 R.Jensen C TB 1 4 5 9 1152 128.0
7 S.Mustipher C CHI 1.5 10 19 30 6 Z.Martin RG DAL 0.5 6 4 10 1104 110.4
7 W.Hernandez RG NYG 4.5 17 13 30 7 T.Shatley C JAX 0 3 2 5 533 106.6
9 J.Daniels RG CHI 3.5 18 11 29 8 C.Roullier C WAS 0 4 1 5 490 98.0
9 A.Jackson LG MIA 2 21 8 29 9 A.Marpet LG TB 0 8 3 11 1038 94.4
9 J.Jones RG/RT ARI 5.5 23 6 29 10 M.Onwenu LG/RT NE 1 4 2 7 648 92.6
12 A.Corbett RG LAR 1.5 16 12 28 11 M.Deiter C MIA 0 3 3 6 546 91.0
12 J.Simpson LG LV 1.5 16 11 28 12 J.Pugh LG ARI 1 6 3 9 801 89.0
14 G.Van Roten RG NYJ 3 17 10 27 13 B.Bozeman C BAL 1.5 8 5 13 1127 86.7
15 B.Allen C LAR 3 9 17 26 14 J.Runyan LG GB 2.5 7 6 13 1053 81.0
15 D.Daley LG/LT CAR 5 20 5 26 15 J.Tretter C CLE 0.5 5 7 13 1039 79.9
15 D.Risner LG DEN 3.5 15 11 26 16 S.Mason RG NE 0 6 6 12 957 79.8
18 7 tied with 25 17 J.Bitonio LG CLE 2 11 3 14 1107 79.1
18 D.Andrews C NE 3 9 5 14 1091 77.9
19 B.Scherff RG WAS 1 8 1 9 697 77.4
20 L.Patrick C/G GB 1 6 6 12 911 75.9
Minimum: 400 snaps
488 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 20 Tight Ends, Blown Blocks

All All
Rk Player Team Sacks All Run Total Rk Player Team Sacks All Run Total
Pass Pass
1 T.Conklin MIN 1.0 11 5 16 9 G.Kittle SF 1.0 5 2 7
2 G.Swaim TEN 1.0 11 4 15 9 M.Lewis GB 1.0 6 1 7
3 N.Fant DEN 1.0 8 3 11 9 I.Thomas CAR 1.0 3 4 7
4 R.Griffin NYJ 0.0 6 4 10 13 J.Doyle IND 1.0 5 1 6
4 B.Wright DET 1.0 7 2 10 13 P.Freiermuth PIT 0.0 5 1 6
6 T.Sweeney BUF 1.0 5 4 9 13 T.Hockenson DET 1.5 4 2 6
7 F.Moreau LV 2.0 6 2 8 13 C.Kmet CHI 1.0 3 3 6
7 M.Pruitt TEN 0.0 6 2 8 13 D.Njoku CLE 1.0 3 2 6
9 M.Alie-Cox IND 1.0 5 2 7 18 14 tied with 5

Most Penalties, Offense Most Penalties, Defense

Rk Player Team Pen Yds Rk Player Team Pen Yds
1 O.Udoh MIN 16 114 1 F.Moreau ATL 11 97
2 C.Williams DAL 15 130 2 T.Diggs DAL 11 75
3 J.Taylor JAX 14 95 3 J.Norman SF 10 95
3 A.Leatherwood LV 14 68 4 M.McDowell CLE 10 75
5 A.Jackson MIA 13 90 5 L.Sneed KC 9 88
6 J.Jones ARI 12 68 6 M.Crosby LV 9 70
7 J.Simpson LV 11 97 7 J.Bosa LAC 9 66
7 A.Villanueva BAL 11 90 8 W.Jackson WAS 8 103
7 D.J.Humphries ARI 11 60 9 B.Facyson LV 8 79
7 P.Sewell DET 11 51 10 A.Oruwariye DET 8 70
7 C.Okorafor PIT 11 38 11 M.Collins HOU 8 66
12 P.Brown HOU 10 72 12 J.Ramsey LAR 8 42
12 T.Biadasz DAL 10 61 13 M.Davis LAC 8 34
12 A.Norwell JAX 10 58 13 X.Howard MIA 8 34
12 L.Eichenberg MIA 10 44 15 11 tied with 7
16 11 tied with 9 Includes declined and offsetting, but not penalties on special teams, turnover
Includes declined and offsetting, but not penalties on special teams, turnover returns, or kneeldowns.
returns, or kneeldowns.

Top 10 Kickers, Gross Bottom 10 Kickers, Gross

Kickoff Value over Average Kickoff Value over Average
Rk Player Team Kick Pts+ Net Pts+ Kicks Rk Player Team Kick Pts+ Net Pts+ Kicks
1 J.Elliott PHI +3.4 -0.8 93 1 D.Carlson LV -3.3 -5.7 87
2 H.Butker KC +3.2 +6.5 90 2 K.Fairbairn HOU -2.8 -1.2 42
3 B.Mann NYJ +2.6 +3.8 22 3 G.Gano NYG -2.3 +3.2 64
4 E.McPherson CIN +2.0 +7.1 90 4 R.Sanchez IND -2.3 +2.9 92
5 M.Crosby GB +1.8 -2.6 94 5 M.Gay LAR -2.0 -0.1 98
6 C.Santos CHI +1.6 +5.3 69 6 Y.Koo ATL -1.4 -0.5 53
7 B.Maher NO +1.3 +1.1 34 7 A.Seibert DET -1.4 +0.1 20
8 C.Boswell PIT +1.3 -1.9 86 8 B.McManus DEN -1.0 -17.1 76
9 D.Hopkins 2TM +1.2 +4.6 96 9 T.Vizcaino LAC -1.0 -+2.1 31
10 C.McLaughlin CLE +1.2 +5.5 68 10 Z.Gonzalez CAR -0.7 -+3.9 55
Min. 20 kickoffs; squibs and onside not included Min. 20 kickoffs; squibs and onside not included
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 489

Top 10 Punters, Gross Bottom 10 Punters, Gross

Punt Value over Average Punt Value over Average
Rk Player Team Punt Pts+ Net Pts+ Punts Rk Player Team Punt Pts+ Net Pts+ Punts
1 B.Anger DAL +11.3 +11.9 65 1 M.Haack BUF -13.1 -9.0 53
2 B.Gillikin NO +10.6 +4.5 83 2 T.Long LAC -8.5 -15.2 47
3 A.J.Cole LV +8.3 +2.7 64 3 J.Bailey NE -7.1 -9.4 52
4 M.Dickson SEA +7.8 +7.5 83 4 J.Gillan CLE -6.8 -2.1 43
5 L.Cooke JAX +6.3 +3.5 65 5 P.Harvin PIT -6.7 -8.2 70
6 J.Fox DET +6.1 +2.4 65 6 D.Colquitt 2TM -6.4 -5.3 49
7 C.Johnston HOU +6.0 +10.8 88 7 J.Charlton 2TM -5.5 -3.7 25
8 T.Morstead 2TM +5.8 +7.2 45 8 B.Pinion TB -5.5 -0.4 56
9 J.Hekker LAR +4.9 +7.3 51 9 M.Palardy MIA -2.2 -0.5 78
10 C.Bojorquez GB +4.6 +1.5 53 10 L.Edwards CAR -2.1 -4.2 39
Min. 20 punts Min. 20 punts

Top 10 Kick Returners, Bottom 10 Kick Returners,

Value over Average Value over Average
Rk Player Team Pts+ Returns Rk Player Team Pts+ Returns
1 B.Berrios NYJ +14.0 28 1 P.Cooper NYG -3.5 12
2 A.Roberts 2TM +11.4 37 2 K.Drake LV -3.0 10
3 T.Smith HOU +7.6 21 3 D.Spencer DEN -2.9 17
4 T.Pollard DAL +7.6 17 4 T.Cannon SF -2.9 16
5 D.Carter WAS +6.1 36 5 C.Patterson ATL -2.4 18
6 T.Coleman NYJ +3.9 11 6 D.Harris NO -2.3 29
6 I.Rodgers IND +3.7 19 7 C.Rogers TEN -2.3 13
8 G.Igwebuike DET +2.9 27 8 J.Reagor PHI -2.3 12
8 D.Duvernay BAL +2.6 28 9 K.Hill GB -2.0 10
10 D.Dallas SEA +2.2 33 10 B.Wilson CIN -2.0 13
Min. eight returns Min. eight returns

Top 10 Punt Returners, Bottom 10 Punt Returners,

Value over Average Value over Average
Rk Player Team Pts+ Returns Rk Player Team Pts+ Returns
1 J.Grant 2TM +9.1 26 1 A.Roberts 2TM -5.9 20
2 D.Duvernay BAL +7.0 26 2 C.Wilson DAL -5.4 11
3 B.Berrios NYJ +4.3 15 3 D.Felton CLE -4.7 32
4 K.Raymond DET +4.1 21 4 D.Phillips CIN -4.4 25
5 G.Olszewski NE +4.0 26 5 A.Rodgers GB -3.4 20
6 C.Rogers TEN +3.2 30 6 D.Spencer DEN -3.2 26
7 D.King HOU +2.6 17 7 J.Holland MIA -3.2 12
8 F.Swain SEA +2.4 22 7 R.Moore ARI -2.0 21
9 C.Lamb DAL +2.3 14 9 D.Westbrook MIN -2.0 22
10 D.Harris NO +2.3 21 10 N.Hines IND -1.9 23
Min. eight returns Min. eight returns
490 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 20 Special Teams Plays

Rk Player Team Plays Rk Player Team Plays
1 J.T.Gray NO 19 8 T.Matakevich BUF 13
2 A.Dulin IND 17 8 E.J.Speed IND 13
3 Co.Davis NE 15 12 C.Barton SEA 12
4 H.Black GB 14 12 J.Hardee NYJ 12
4 A.Dowell NO 14 12 D.Leavitt LV 12
4 N.Niemann LAC 14 12 J.Layne PIT 12
4 D.Watt PIT 14 12 S.Neal BUF 12
8 N.Bellore SEA 13 17 13 tied with 11
8 U.Gilbert PIT 13
Plays = tackles + assists; does not include onside or end-half squib kicks.

Top 10 Offenses, Top 10 Defenses, Bottom 10 Offenses, Bottom 10 Defenses,

3-and-out per drive 3-and-out per drive 3-and-out per drive 3-and-out per drive
Rk Team Pct Rk Team Pct Rk Team Pct Rk Team Pct
1 KC 10.6% 1 BUF 25.8% 23 DEN 21.7% 23 ARI 18.4%
2 BUF 13.8% 2 CLE 25.1% 24 PIT 22.8% 24 LAC 18.2%
3 LAR 14.2% 3 PHI 23.1% 25 CAR 23.7% 25 CIN 18.0%
4 BAL 15.3% 4 NO 22.8% 26 SEA 23.9% 26 NYJ 17.7%
5 NE 15.5% 5 IND 22.6% 27 MIA 24.0% 26 TEN 17.7%
6 LAC 17.2% 6 SF 22.5% 28 NYJ 25.8% 28 LV 17.4%
7 TB 17.2% 7 BAL 22.4% 29 NO 26.3% 29 KC 17.4%
8 GB 17.3% 8 HOU 22.0% 30 JAX 27.0% 30 MIN 16.9%
9 PHI 17.4% 9 TB 21.9% 31 MIN 27.3% 31 MIA 16.4%
10 LV 17.6% 10 CAR 21.7% 32 HOU 28.8% 32 DET 15.4%

Top 10 Offenses, Top 10 Defenses, Bottom 10 Offenses, Bottom 10 Defenses,

Yards per drive Yards per drive Yards per drive Yards per drive
Rk Team Yds/Dr Rk Team Yds/Dr Rk Team Yds/Dr Rk Team Yds/Dr
1 KC 41.82 1 BUF 26.11 23 ATL 30.21 23 MIN 35.08
2 LAC 39.06 2 CAR 27.25 24 CHI 30.09 24 WAS 35.56
3 GB 38.97 3 NO 28.30 25 JAX 29.53 25 JAX 35.61
4 LAR 37.49 4 MIA 29.97 26 MIA 29.22 26 LAC 35.75
5 TB 37.16 5 CIN 30.59 27 NYJ 29.04 27 SEA 35.84
6 PHI 36.13 6 DAL 30.60 28 PIT 28.74 28 HOU 36.10
7 SF 35.81 7 CLE 30.93 29 NO 27.68 29 KC 37.12
8 DAL 35.79 8 NE 31.28 30 NYG 26.85 30 ATL 37.30
9 NE 35.62 9 SF 31.28 31 CAR 26.83 31 NYJ 37.41
10 BUF 35.39 10 PIT 31.34 32 HOU 25.03 32 DET 38.36
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 491

Top 10 Offenses, avg Top 10 Defenses, Bottom 10 Offenses, Bottom 10 Defenses,

LOS to start drive avg LOS to start drive avg LOS to start drive avg LOS to start drive
Rk Team LOS Rk Team LOS Rk Team LOS Rk Team LOS
1 BUF 32.2 1 SEA 25.3 23 LAR 27.9 23 HOU 29.5
2 IND 31.4 2 DEN 26.0 24 MIA 27.7 24 ARI 29.6
3 NE 31.2 3 LV 26.3 25 LV 27.7 25 LAC 29.7
4 NO 30.7 4 NE 26.7 26 NYJ 27.6 26 SF 29.7
5 TB 29.9 5 KC 26.8 27 DEN 27.6 27 TEN 29.8
6 GB 29.9 6 DAL 27.2 28 WAS 27.2 28 PIT 30.0
7 SEA 29.7 7 IND 27.3 29 SF 26.8 29 NYG 31.0
8 ARI 29.6 8 NO 27.4 30 BAL 26.7 30 CHI 31.2
9 TEN 29.4 9 BAL 27.5 31 NYG 26.6 31 NYJ 31.5
10 CIN 29.4 10 MIN 27.7 32 JAX 25.8 32 CAR 33.2

Top 10 Offenses, Top 10 Defenses, Bottom 10 Offenses, Bottom 10 Defenses,

Points per drive Points per drive Points per drive Points per drive
Rk Team Pts/Dr Rk Team Pts/Dr Rk Team Pts/Dr Rk Team Pts/Dr
1 KC 2.81 1 BUF 1.57 23 DET 1.84 23 NYG 2.20
2 LAC 2.72 2 NE 1.60 24 PIT 1.78 24 CHI 2.27
3 GB 2.70 3 NO 1.63 25 ATL 1.72 25 WAS 2.36
4 LAR 2.68 4 DEN 1.78 26 MIA 1.68 26 LV 2.40
5 TB 2.68 5 DAL 1.78 27 CHI 1.63 27 JAX 2.47
6 BUF 2.63 6 TB 1.81 28 NYJ 1.63 28 LAC 2.48
7 NE 2.63 7 CIN 1.88 29 CAR 1.55 29 HOU 2.48
8 DAL 2.49 8 LAR 1.91 30 HOU 1.43 30 ATL 2.61
9 IND 2.47 9 MIA 1.93 31 JAX 1.39 31 DET 2.68
10 ARI 2.47 10 TEN 1.96 32 NYG 1.36 32 NYJ 2.78

Top 10 Offenses, Better Bottom 10 Offenses, Worse

DVOA with Shotgun DVOA with Shotgun
% Plays DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA % Plays DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA
Rk Team Rk Team
Shotgun Shot Not Shot Not Dif Shotgun Shot Not Shot Not Dif
1 CIN 63% 13.5% -15.8% 6.8 4.7 29.3% 23 HOU 70% -21.5% -22.9% 5.1 4.2 1.4%
2 BAL 96% 3.0% -21.6% 5.7 3.5 24.7% 24 ATL 53% -17.0% -17.3% 5.7 4.7 0.3%
3 TB 63% 36.6% 13.3% 6.7 5.4 23.2% 25 PHI 84% 8.1% 8.4% 6.0 5.1 -0.3%
4 SF 60% 25.1% 1.9% 6.7 5.6 23.2% 26 TEN 46% -4.6% -3.9% 5.5 5.1 -0.7%
5 MIN 46% 14.1% -5.4% 6.2 5.4 19.5% 27 CLE 51% 3.7% 4.6% 5.5 5.8 -0.9%
6 DEN 59% 14.2% -5.1% 6.0 4.9 19.3% 28 LV 65% -5.0% -1.0% 6.3 5.4 -4.0%
7 GB 63% 27.7% 8.5% 6.3 5.5 19.2% 29 IND 64% 2.5% 7.4% 5.6 6.3 -4.8%
8 NO 53% -1.7% -18.5% 5.3 4.7 16.8% 30 JAX 72% -16.7% -11.8% 5.3 4.9 -4.9%
9 LAC 61% 22.4% 7.2% 6.3 5.7 15.2% 31 DET 59% -21.9% -12.3% 5.4 5.0 -9.6%
10 NE 48% 18.7% 4.3% 6.5 5.3 14.4% 32 NYG 70% -33.0% -19.1% 4.8 4.5 -13.9%
492 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Top 10 Offenses, Better Bottom 10 Offenses, Worse

DVOA with Play-Action DVOA with Play-Action
DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA
Rk Team % PA Rk Team % PA
PA No PA PA No PA Dif PA No PA PA No PA Dif
1 WAS 35% 48.9% -21.8% 7.8 5.0 70.7% 23 BAL 29% 14.9% 11.7% 7.3 5.9 3.2%
2 BUF 33% 42.5% 9.1% 7.9 5.9 33.4% 24 NYG 27% -21.8% -22.9% 5.1 5.3 1.2%
3 TEN 29% 25.2% -3.7% 7.9 5.5 29.0% 25 ARI 31% 23.4% 25.1% 7.8 6.5 -1.7%
4 CLE 25% 25.6% -1.2% 8.7 5.0 26.8% 26 SF 29% 26.3% 36.1% 9.1 7.3 -9.8%
5 ATL 28% 13.4% -10.7% 6.8 5.8 24.1% 27 PIT 22% -9.1% 2.9% 5.6 5.6 -12.0%
6 PHI 32% 33.6% 9.6% 8.4 6.1 24.0% 28 GB 28% 27.4% 40.8% 6.9 7.1 -13.4%
7 CAR 24% -8.1% -30.3% 5.9 4.9 22.3% 29 NYJ 22% -22.9% 0.3% 5.9 5.7 -23.3%
8 KC 28% 48.5% 28.0% 6.9 7.0 20.6% 30 HOU 24% -27.8% -1.8% 5.9 5.9 -26.0%
9 LV 20% 28.0% 7.8% 8.3 6.9 20.2% 31 DEN 26% -5.8% 35.8% 6.0 6.5 -41.6%
10 MIA 35% 17.0% -2.3% 7.0 5.0 19.3% 32 CIN 21% -19.1% 28.0% 7.2 7.3 -47.1%

Top 10 Defenses, Better Bottom 10 Defenses, Worse

DVOA vs. Shotgun DVOA vs. Shotgun
% Plays DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA % Plays DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA
Rk Team Rk Team
Shotgun Shot Not Shot Not Dif Shotgun Shot Not Shot Not Dif
1 MIA 74% -4.8% 3.4% 5.3 5.3 -8.2% 23 SEA 75% 4.0% -2.7% 5.5 5.3 6.7%
2 CHI 72% -0.4% 6.6% 5.6 5.5 -7.0% 24 LAC 75% 6.0% -1.8% 5.8 5.1 7.8%
3 DET 70% 11.0% 17.2% 6.2 6.0 -6.2% 25 KC 76% 3.5% -5.5% 6.0 5.6 9.0%
4 DAL 75% -16.1% -10.9% 5.7 5.4 -5.2% 26 MIN 74% 0.8% -8.3% 5.9 4.9 9.1%
5 CLE 79% -2.6% 2.2% 5.3 5.0 -4.8% 27 NYJ 71% 15.1% 5.2% 6.2 6.0 9.8%
6 NYG 75% 3.1% 6.4% 5.4 5.2 -3.3% 28 BAL 73% 9.8% -2.5% 6.2 5.5 12.4%
7 NE 72% -13.6% -11.2% 5.3 5.3 -2.4% 29 IND 73% -4.7% -17.3% 5.7 5.2 12.6%
8 BUF 75% -17.6% -15.2% 4.7 4.1 -2.4% 30 ARI 74% -7.9% -22.8% 5.5 5.1 14.9%
9 CAR 73% -1.2% 1.1% 5.2 4.9 -2.3% 31 SF 75% -7.4% -28.7% 5.4 4.0 21.3%
10 HOU 69% 2.7% 5.0% 6.1 6.2 -2.2% 32 WAS 74% 5.9% -17.7% 5.9 4.8 23.6%

Top 10 Defenses, Better Bottom 10 Defenses, Worse

DVOA vs. Play-Action DVOA vs. Play-Action
DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA DVOA DVOA Yd/Play Yd/Play DVOA
Rk Team % PA Rk Team % PA
PA No PA PA No PA Dif PA No PA PA No PA Dif
1 MIN 28% -19.1% 12.4% 6.3 6.7 -31.5% 23 MIA 27% 17.5% -7.3% 6.5 5.7 24.9%
2 IND 25% -8.4% 11.0% 6.9 6.3 -19.4% 24 DAL 28% -2.6% -28.8% 7.3 5.9 26.2%
3 LAC 26% -5.2% 12.1% 6.2 6.8 -17.3% 25 ATL 30% 39.0% 10.8% 8.1 6.4 28.3%
4 BUF 26% -33.9% -18.1% 5.3 5.0 -15.8% 26 TEN 27% 21.7% -6.7% 8.0 5.8 28.4%
5 DEN 25% -1.2% 12.3% 6.8 6.1 -13.4% 27 NYG 33% 22.3% -7.9% 6.5 5.7 30.2%
6 CLE 27% -8.4% 2.7% 6.0 5.9 -11.1% 28 CIN 24% 34.3% 3.2% 8.8 5.7 31.0%
7 PIT 20% -7.3% 2.1% 6.5 6.1 -9.3% 29 PHI 28% 35.2% 3.1% 7.7 5.5 32.1%
8 CAR 27% 0.4% 9.5% 6.2 6.1 -9.1% 30 NO 25% 16.5% -16.3% 7.4 5.6 32.8%
9 JAX 32% 21.2% 30.2% 7.7 6.7 -9.0% 31 KC 28% 37.0% -0.4% 8.8 5.9 37.3%
10 WAS 28% 13.2% 21.2% 7.6 6.9 -8.0% 32 BAL 26% 58.6% 13.9% 9.6 6.5 44.7%
 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 493

2021 Defenses with and without Pass Pressure

DVOA with Yds with DVOA w/o Yds w/o
Rank Team Plays Pct Pressure DVOA Dif Rank
Pressure Pressure Pressure Pressure
1 MIA 679 34.1% -77.7% 2.4 41.1% 7.8 -118.8% 22
2 BUF 613 31.1% -76.9% 2.7 1.9% 6.2 -78.8% 4
3 LAR 702 29.0% -102.9% 2.2 40.8% 7.9 -143.7% 32
4 TB 777 28.6% -86.5% 2.4 36.7% 7.2 -123.1% 24
5 CAR 574 28.5% -86.5% 2.0 46.1% 7.8 -132.5% 28
6 KC 686 28.4% -70.0% 3.0 41.8% 8.2 -111.8% 20
7 NE 608 28.4% -83.6% 2.9 13.8% 7.1 -97.3% 12
8 DAL 691 28.0% -91.6% 2.6 9.1% 7.8 -100.8% 14
9 GB 691 27.5% -58.1% 3.7 29.4% 7.1 -87.5% 7
10 SF 643 27.0% -71.4% 3.5 33.9% 7.7 -105.3% 17
11 LV 680 26.4% -66.4% 2.7 38.0% 7.4 -104.4% 16
12 LAC 632 26.2% -86.9% 3.6 42.3% 7.8 -129.2% 26
13 CHI 549 26.1% -101.3% 2.4 37.9% 7.9 -139.3% 30
14 IND 670 26.0% -39.6% 3.5 22.7% 7.6 -62.3% 1
15 TEN 714 25.9% -67.8% 3.5 27.7% 7.5 -95.6% 10
16 PIT 653 25.2% -103.8% 2.0 35.9% 7.6 -139.7% 31
17 JAX 606 24.9% -35.5% 4.2 48.5% 8.0 -84.0% 6
18 NO 683 24.7% -107.6% 2.1 23.9% 7.3 -131.5% 27
19 BAL 680 24.4% -67.0% 3.8 57.6% 8.5 -124.5% 25
20 HOU 602 24.1% -55.0% 4.3 32.5% 8.1 -87.5% 8
21 MIN 717 24.0% -88.3% 2.6 31.6% 7.9 -120.0% 23
22 CIN 696 23.9% -92.0% 2.8 42.5% 7.7 -134.4% 29
23 SEA 728 23.7% -50.3% 4.0 38.9% 7.5 -89.3% 9
24 DET 614 23.6% -56.3% 4.0 40.8% 8.6 -97.1% 11
25 WAS 675 23.6% -38.5% 5.4 36.3% 7.7 -74.8% 2
26 NYG 670 23.6% -59.5% 3.3 21.1% 6.8 -80.6% 5
27 DEN 636 23.5% -77.2% 2.3 34.7% 7.6 -111.9% 21
28 CLE 648 23.4% -76.9% 2.8 23.4% 6.9 -100.3% 13
29 PHI 650 22.9% -71.0% 2.9 37.3% 7.1 -108.3% 19
30 ARI 632 22.4% -81.4% 3.3 20.4% 7.1 -101.8% 15
31 NYJ 654 22.1% -31.2% 4.3 47.3% 8.2 -78.5% 3
32 ATL 636 18.2% -68.1% 2.7 39.4% 7.8 -107.4% 18
NFL AVERAGE 659 26.1% -73.0% 3.1 33.7% 7.6 -106.7%
Includes scrambles and Defensive Pass Interference. Does not include aborted snaps.
 Author Bios
Editor-in-Chief and NFL Statistician College Football Statisticians
Aaron Schatz is the creator of FootballOutsiders.com and Parker Fleming is an independent college football analyst
the proprietary NFL statistics within Football Outsiders Al- from Fort Worth, Texas, responsible for the college football
manac, including DVOA, DYAR, and adjusted line yards. He EPA numbers in this book. He hosts a podcast and writes the
is also responsible each year for producing the Football Out- “Purple Theory” newsletter covering TCU, the Big 12, and
siders NFL team projections. He writes regularly for ESPN+ college football.
and ESPN Chalk and has done custom research for a num-
ber of NFL teams. The New York Times Magazine referred to Brian Fremeau has been analyzing college football drive
him as “the Bill James of football.” Readers should feel free stats for Football Outsiders since 2006. A lifelong Fighting
to blame everything in this book on the fact that he went to Irish fan, Brian can be found every home football Saturday
high school six miles from Gillette Stadium before detouring in Notre Dame Stadium. He can be found there every day, in
through Brown University and eventually landing in Auburn, fact, due to his campus facility operations responsibilities. He
Massachusetts. He promises that someday Bill Belichick will lives in South Bend, Indiana with his wife and two daughters.
retire, the Patriots will be awful, and he will write very mean
and nasty things about them.
Contributors
Layout and Design J.P. Acosta writes for SB Nation’s Big Cat Country and
writes about football for Sports Illustrated Wildcats Daily as
Vincent Verhei has been a writer and editor for Football well as Football Outsiders. He recently received a master’s
Outsiders since 2007. In addition to writing for Football Out- degree in sports media from Northwestern University. He
siders Almanac 2022, he did all the layout and design on the played way too much Madden as a kid and now spends his
book. During the season, he writes the Quick Reads column time drawing football plays in his school notebook and watch-
covering the best and worst players of each week according to ing anime.
Football Outsiders metrics. His writings have also appeared in
ESPN The Magazine and in Maple Street Press publications, Thomas Bassinger has been writing for the Football Out-
and he has done layout on a number of other books for Foot- siders Almanac since 2019. After nearly 15 years in Tampa—
ball Outsiders and Prospectus Entertainment Ventures. He is six covering the NFL and the Buccaneers—he now lives in
also a co-host on The Bryan & Vinny Show podcast at pro Philadelphia, where he’s the Page One designer and editor for
wrestling/MMA website F4WOnline.com. He is a graduate of the Inquirer. He’s the proud father of a singer/flutist and an
Western Washington University. electric guitarist/kickball superstar. He’s grateful for Chief
and all the brainy conversation.

Fantasy Football Statistician Cale Clinton has written for Football Outsiders since 2017.
Despite living in New York nearly his entire life, Cale was
Scott Spratt is responsible for the KUBIAK fantasy foot- spared the burden of New York sports fandom and was raised
ball projections in this book as well as the weekly fantasy a Boston fan. He attended Amherst College as an English ma-
projections available on FootballOutsiders.com. He got into jor and recently earned a master’s degree in Magazine, News,
analytics through his baseball work for Sports Info Solutions and Digital Journalism at Syracuse University’s Newhouse
and writing for ESPN and FanGraphs, but he loves football School of Public Communication.
analytics because of the intricacies of the sport. He is a Sloan
Analytics Research Paper Competition and Fantasy Sports Derrik Klassen is from the Central Valley of Califor-
Writers Association award winner and was a 2018 finalist for nia, though he grew up near Tampa Bay, Florida. Covering
FSWA Football Writer of the Year for his writing for Pro Foot- the NFL draft gave him his start but studying the NFL itself
ball Focus. He is an elusive native Charlottean and has the has taken precedence. He has been published at NBC Sports
Jimmy Clausen-given scars to prove it. Edge, SB Nation, and Bleacher Report, and has worked for
Optimum Scouting, doing charting and scouting reports for
their NFL Draft Guide.

494
 AUTHOR BIOS 495

Bryan Knowles has been covering the NFL since 2010, Carl Yedor was born and raised in Seattle, Washington,
with his work appearing on ESPN, Bleacher Report, and Fan- and his first vivid football memory was “We want the ball,
sided. He has been with Football Outsiders since 2016, han- and we’re going to score.” In spite of that, he has remained
dling Scramble for the Ball, Loser League, and the various a Seahawks fan to this day. He graduated from Georgetown
bric-a-brac that comes from a lifetime of staring at spread- University in 2016 and has been writing for Football Outsid-
sheets and willing them to make some sort of sense. He’s the ers in addition to his day job ever since. He lives in Arlington,
go-to guy on staff for opinions on the Columbus Panhandles, Virginia, and started his career as an analytics consultant be-
a niche skill set which ensures he couldn’t survive in the wild. fore transitioning to an internal-facing data science role with
a credit union.
Rivers McCown is a staff writer for Football Outsiders and
NBC Sports EDGE. He has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher
Report, USA Today, and Athlon, among other places. He has Acknowledgements
edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and
Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue. He lives in Houston, We want to thank all the Football Outsiders readers, all the
Texas, with his wife, under the control of two cats and three people in the media who have helped to spread the word about
birds. He has covered the Houston Texans for The Athletic our website and books, and all the people in the NFL who
and on his own personal website, RiversMcCown.com, since have shown interest in our work. This is our 18th annual book
2018. He has also appeared in every Football Outsiders Al- as part of the Pro Football Prospectus or Football Outsiders
manac since 2011 and can’t tell you how old the idea of that Almanac series. We couldn’t do this if we were just one guy,
makes him feel. or without the help and/or support from all these people:

Preston Pack is a college football analyst with a focus • The entire staff at Champion Gaming and EdjSports,
on advanced statistics and retroactive team evaluation. They especially Chris Spagnuolo, Matt Noskow, and our
managed to acquire an appreciation for sports despite being website technical lead Aram Bojadžjan.
raised in Atlanta and attending the University of Tennessee. • Erik Orr for cover design.
Beyond Football Outsiders, they can be found complaining • Mike Harris for help with the season simulation.
about Group of 5 disrespect on Twitter and tweaking TERSE, • Excel macro master John Argentiero.
their college football computer designed to rank teams like a • Jim Armstrong, who compiles our drive and pace stats.
human. • Abe vander Bent, who handles our data parser.
• Our offensive line guru Ben Muth.
Dan Pizzuta has previously written for Bleacher Report, • Nathan Forster, creator of SackSEER and BackCAST,
numberFire, and Big Blue View. He got into football analytics who is also responsible for improvements on Playmaker
after hearing Aaron Schatz on a podcast once and now he’s here. Score (originally created by Vincent Verhei).
He’s currently a writer and editor for Sharp Football Analysis. • Jason McKinley, creator of Offensive Line Continuity
Score.
Mike Tanier is Football Outsiders’ latest full-time addition • Jeremy Snyder, our incredibly prolific transcriber of
as a Senior Analyst. He has also been contributing to Foot- old play-by-play gamebooks.
ball Outsiders Almanac since 2005. It’s a temporal paradox! • Roland Beech, formerly of TwoMinuteWarning.
You may also be familiar with his work from Bleacher Report, com, who came up with the original ideas behind our
The New York Times, Sports on Earth, Fansided, and many individual defensive stats.
other outlets. Mike is now a Big Ten dad, or at least a Rutgers • Our editors at ESPN.com, in particular Sarah Corso.
dad, as well as a JV tennis and marching band dad. Finally, • Our friends at Sports Info Solutions who have really
Mike is the author of Long Snapper’s Blues, the coming-of- expanded what we can do with game charting,
age football-themed romcom book his own mother called “too particularly Dan Foehrenbach and Matt Manocherian.
depressing to finish.” • All the friends we have made on coaching staffs and in
front offices across the National Football League, who
Robert Weintraub is the author of several books includ- generally don’t want to be mentioned by name. You
ing The Divine Miss Marble, The Victory Season, The House know who you are.
That Ruth Built, and the New York Times bestseller No Better • Our comrades in the revolution: Bill Barnwell (our
Friend: One Man, One Dog, and their Extraordinary Story long-lost brother), Brian Burke and the guys from
of Courage and Survival in WWII. He has also been a regu- ESPN Stats & Information, Mina Kimes, Ben Baldwin,
lar contributor to Sports on Earth, Slate, Grantland, Columbia Neil Paine, Robert Mays, Danny Kelly, Kevin Clark,
Journalism Review, and The New York Times. and K.C. Joyner, plus everyone at Pro Football
Reference, the football guys from FootballGuys.com,
and all of the young analysts doing awesome work with
NFLfastR all over Twitter.
496 AUTHOR BIOS

• Also, our scouting buddies, including Chris Brown, J.P. Acosta: @acosta32_jp
Greg Cosell, Doug Farrar, Russ Lande, Brandon Thorn, Thomas Bassinger: @tometrics
and Matt Waldman. Dave Bernreuther: @bernreuther
Zachary Binney: @binney_z
As always, thanks to our family and friends for putting up Cale Clinton: @CaleClinton
with this nonsense. Parker Fleming: @statsowar
Aaron Schatz Brian Fremeau: @bcfremeau
Tom Gower: @ThomasGower
Derrik Klassen: @QBKlass
Football Outsiders Multimedia Bryan Knowles: @BryKno
Rivers McCown: @RiversMcCown
Football Outsiders broadcasts live on YouTube and Twitch Ben Muth: @FO_WordofMuth
every Monday through Friday during the season and every Preston Pack: @PrestonPack
Thursday during the offseason. You can check out those streams Dan Pizzuta: @DanPizzuta
at https://www.youtube.com/c/FootballOutsidersNetwork. Andrew Potter: @bighairyandy
Aaron Schatz: @FO_ASchatz
You can also find our livestreams after the fact as podcasts Scott Spratt: @Scott_Spratt
on the Football Outsiders Podcast Network. Look for those Mike Tanier: @MikeTanier
wherever you get your podcasts or go to https://www.football- Vince Verhei: @FO_VVerhei
outsiders.com/podcasts. Robert Weintraub: @robwein
Carl Yedor: @CarlYedor61

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