Current and Pakistan Affairs Workshop

CSS 2025
Ammar Gul
03083629854
Bangladesh: The fall of Hasina government and its implications on the region.
 Glimpses of Political History of Bangladesh:
 Bangladesh was ruled by a military dictatorship between 1982 and 1991. Democracy was
restored in 1991 in large part because of the joint actions of Khaleda Zia, leader of the BNP, and
Sheikh Hasina, leader of the AL, who together organised a mass uprising against the military
regime.
 However, once the military dictatorship was removed, the two political leaders became rivals,
and for two decades Bangladesh experienced turbulent alternation between the AL and the BNP.
 In 1991, The BNP became the largest party, winning 140 of the 300 directly elected seats. It
formed a government with the Islamist Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) party, which won 35.
 The AL was the largest opposition party with 88 seats. Khaleda Zia, leader of the BNP, became
Prime Minister for the first time.
 In 1996, The BNP won 278 of the 300 seats, but the election was boycotted by the major
opposition parties including the AL and BJI, who demanded that the election be overseen by a
neutral caretaker government.
 After mass strikes and protests, the BNP-dominated Parliament changed the constitution to
bring in the caretaker system, and fresh elections were held in June 1996.
 The AL became the largest party, winning 146 of the 300 directly elected seats. Sheikh Hasina
became Prime Minister for the first time.
 In 2001, The Zia-led BNP returned to power, winning 193 seats to the AL’s 62. The BNP formed a
coalition government with the BJI, which won 17 seats.
 Elections were postponed between 2006 and 2008. The caretaker government that took control
in October 2006 at the end of the Zia government’s five-year term postponed elections due to
widespread violence.
 The military intervened in January 2007 to support the government, and effectively took
control.12 The caretaker government started an anti-corruption drive.
 During this period, Sheikh Hasina was charged with murder and Khaleda Zia was put under
virtual house arrest while she was investigated on charges of corruption.
 A general election was finally held after a two-year hiatus. The AL and their electoral coalition
won a landslide victory, winning 230 seats to the BNP’s 30.
 In 2010, The Awami League-led government set up an International Crimes Tribunal to
investigate abuses committed during the 1971 War of Independence.
 Several senior BJI leaders were arrested and investigated as part of the tribunal. Five were
executed between 2013 and 2015 after being found guilty of war crimes.
 In 2011, Sheikh Hasina’s government changed the constitution, removing the caretaker
government system.
 In 2014, AL won another landslide victory, gaining 234 seats. However, most of the opposition
parties, including the BNP, boycotted the elections, and demanded that the caretaker
government system be reinstated.
 The BNP also claimed that Zia was under virtual house arrest, with police surrounding her home
and not allowing her to receive visitors. In the previous year, several senior BNP leaders had
been arrested.
 In August 2013, Bangladesh’s High Court ruled that the BJI’s registration as a political party was
illegal, and determined that it could not put forward candidates at elections.
 In 2018, Khaleda Zia was jailed for five years after being found guilty of corruption.
 AL won a third straight victory, gaining 257 seats. The BNP and other opposition parties did
contest the vote, but they won just eight seats in total, seven of them for the BNP.
 In 2024, Bangladesh held parliamentary elections. Incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of
the Awami League (AL) party won a fourth consecutive term in office (and her fifth in total). The
AL and its allies won a total of 225 of the 300 parliamentary seats.
 The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the elections, and
the BBC said that there were “mass arrests of BNP leaders and supporters” in the run-up to
polling day.
 Understanding the Issue and Events:
 Student protests against the quota system:
 On 1 July 2024, groups of students began protesting against a quota system for government jobs.
 Under the system, more than 50% of jobs were reserved for “underrepresented” groups, for
example 10% for women, 5% for minority ethnic groups and 10% for those from poorer areas of
the country.
 The most unpopular part of the quota system, however, was the 30% of jobs reserved for the
children and grandchildren of ‘freedom fighters’: those “who took part in the 1971 Liberation
War with Pakistan, which led to the creation of independent Bangladesh”.
 Sheikh Hasina’s government scrapped the quota system in 2018 after mass protests, also led by
students.
 The Economist magazine reported at the time that the protestors were angry not just about the
quotas but “the system of favouritism and patronage built by the ruling party”.
 It went on to add “the bureaucracy has issued some 250,000 documents certifying the bearer as
a freedom fighter. Many recipients obtained them through bribery. Others use forgeries”.
 On 5 June 2024, Bangladesh’s Supreme Court reversed the 2018 decision by the government to
scrap the quota system.
 At the same time, teachers from universities were also protesting about being enrolled into a
new national pension scheme, further escalating tensions on campuses.
 Their placards and slogans were reported to include: “Let the weapon of 2018 roar again”,
“Quota or Merit”, “Students’ action, direct action”, and “No more tears for the meritorious”.
 The Asia-focused Diplomat magazine said that “a significant number of students remain
unemployed after graduation”.
 “We envision a new Bangladesh that rejects intimidation, corruption, and extortion. The Awami
League and Sheikh Hasina must be held accountable,” student leader stated, as quoted by The
Daily Star. Protesters also demanded that the next election pave the way for a constituent
assembly to draft a new constitution.
 Wider discontent fuels protests:
 Also examining the origins of the protests, the International Crisis Group (ICG) noted that they
came at a time when “Bangladesh’s economy is struggling, largely due to mismanagement and
corruption, leading to fewer job opportunities for young people in the private sector”.
 The ICG also said that there was “growing frustration at the government’s authoritarianism,
which enabled it to secure a fourth consecutive term in a stage-managed election in January”.
 An analysis by BBC News found that under Sheikh Hasina’s time in government, Bangladesh has
been “transformed” with “new roads, bridges, factories and even a metro rail”, and that “per
capita income tripled in the last decade as more than 25 million people were lifted out of
poverty over 20 years”.
 However, it also reported that there were “allegations of rampant corruption”, and many “felt
that the growth was mostly helping those close to the Prime Minister's Awami League”.
 The article noted in particular that “social media in Bangladesh in recent months was dominated
by discussions about corruption allegations against some of Ms Hasina’s former top officials –
including a former army chief, ex-police chief, senior tax officers and state recruitment officials”.
 Bangladesh government response:
 An analysis by the Diplomat reported that Sheikh Hasina’s “tone changed” during the 2024
protests.
 The magazine said this was noticeably different to her response to the 2018 protests, when she
acknowledged the motivating grievances.
 It said in 2024 she dismissed the anti-quota movement as unjustified, especially after the
Supreme Court verdict, saying “Students are wasting their time unnecessarily in the name of the
movement. After the verdict of the court, there is no justification for the anti-quota movement”.
 The ICG also said that the government blamed opposition parties, particularly the Bangladesh
Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, for organising the protests and the violence that
had occurred, but that it “provided little evidence to support its claim”.
 Protests turn violent:
 On 19 July, the government imposed a nationwide curfew and cut off internet access nationwide.
 The government also called in the army to support the police, and violence increased against
protesters.
 By 25 July, the ICG reported that “at least 200 people have been killed and thousands wounded
throughout Bangladesh since 16 July”.
 Hasina’s government launched its own appeal against the Supreme Court judgment, and in a
swift decision on 21 July, the court largely reversed its previous ruling, stating that just 5% of
jobs could be reserved for the relatives of veterans.
 Fall of the Hasina Government:
 On 5 August, as tens of thousands of protestors took to the streets, and the government
reportedly instigated another mass shutdown of mobile internet services, it was reported that
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had left her residence in the capital Dhaka “for a safer place”.
 Shortly after this, news outlets reported that she had left the country for India.
 Later that day, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, head of Bangladesh’s army, said in a televised address
that Sheikh Hasina had resigned, and after discussions with “all political parties”, it had been
decided that an interim government would be formed.
 President Mohammed Shahabuddin announced that he had chaired a meeting of army chiefs
and political representatives, and that as well as forming an interim government, new elections
would be called and the national curfew lifted.
 The President also ordered the release of jailed former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party, and all those detained during the protests.
 New caretaker government and Muhammad Yunus:
 On 6 August, the President dissolved Bangladesh’s Parliament, one of the student protestors’
key demands.
 On 7 August, a spokesperson for the President announced that the new interim government
would be led by the Nobel-Prize winning economist Muhammad Yunus.
 Yunus is being called Chief Advisor rather than Prime Minister. Student leaders of the protestors
were reported to have requested that Yunus take up the role.
 On 8 August, Yunus announced an interim Cabinet, which included two leaders of the Students
Against Discrimination organisation that led the recent protests.
 Alongside Yunus, an advisory council consisting of representatives of civil society organizations,
student leaders, freedom fighters, law professionals, medical and technical sector
representatives, and business leaders also took their oaths.
 According to the DW news organisation, the Cabinet members were “given the title of advisors,
not ministers” and were “selected in consultation with student leaders, the military, and civil
society representatives”.
 On 27 August, the interim government announced it had formed a five member commission led
by a retired judge to investigate cases of enforced disappearances between 2009 and 2024,
when Sheikh Hasina was leading the government.
 On 28 August, the interim government announced that it had lifted a ban on the Islamist Jamaat-
e-Islami party that had been imposed by Hasina’s government using anti-terrorist legislation on 1
August.
 Factors Responsible for the fall of Hasina Government:
1. Student protests against the quota system: As Naveeda Khan, an anthropologist at Johns
Hopkins University, recently wrote, the “quota for freedom fighters was undoubtedly for
[Hasina’s] own chosen people.”
2. Prevalence of the system of favouritism and patronage built by the ruling party: In recent
years, the Bangladeshi government has faced serious allegations of nepotism and corruption in
the judiciary, armed forces, and senior levels of the bureaucracy.
3. Economic Turmoil, Unemployment and Corruption: According to the World Bank, more than a
quarter of jobseekers are between the ages of 15 and 29, and 1 in 8 young people is jobless.
4. Growing frustration at the government’s authoritarianism: “We must recognize this is not an
elected government in the traditional sense. They have amassed a lot of power,” said Ahmedur
Rashid Tutul, a Bangladeshi writer and publisher.
5. Social Media activism against the fractured political and economic system of Bangladesh:
Digital Security Act—a vaguely worded law that allows authorities to detain people and search
equipment without warrant—entered into force in late 2018.
6. Vigorous and harsh government response to the student protest: A searing video of Abu
Saeed—an unarmed protester, who stretches out his arms and thrusts his chest forward as the
police shoot him to death—has come to symbolize the uprising against the state.
7. The role of opposition parties such as JI Bangladesh and BNP in ousting Hasina government
and in supporting student protests: The opposition wasn’t initially involved with the protests,
but since then, members of political parties and people from all walks of life have joined in with
the students. “The criticism against the government cuts through all sections of the society,”
said Rumi Ahmed, a physician at the University of Texas at Austin, who writes frequently on
Bangladeshi politics.
8. Degradation of democracy in Bangladesh: Hasina lost the legitimacy to rule Bangladesh: After
losing reelection in 2001, she returned to power following the 2008 election, when she won a
second five-year term. Since then, her victories have been marred by allegations including voter
intimidation, ballot stuffing, and violence against political opponents.
9. Opposition of devout Muslims against Hasina’s Islamophobic policies: Reports emerged of
Muslim students being harassed for organizing Islamic events at Dhaka University, and female
students were criticized for wearing the niqab, a traditional Islamic covering. Even faculty
members with Islamic educational backgrounds faced discrimination in academic settings.
 Hasina Government and its support by Foreign Powers:
 US and Hasina Regime:
 Sheikh Hasina’s rise to power in January 2009 came at a time when the world was deeply
embroiled in the “Global War on Terror.”
 The geopolitical context of this war significantly shaped the trajectory of her governance, as
Hasina adeptly aligned her policies with the counterterrorism strategies of the United States.
 For much of her rule, Sheikh Hasina enjoyed close ties with the United States, which offered
diplomatic support even in the face of widespread electoral fraud during the 2014 and 2018
elections.
 The primary concern for the U.S. was the stability of a regime that aligned with its security
interests, particularly regarding the containment of Islamist extremism in South Asia.
 While this strategy helped Hasina maintain power, it also fueled Islamophobia within Bangladesh,
where Muslims constitute the overwhelming majority of the population.
 Radical secular elites, empowered by the state’s anti-extremism stance, capitalized on the
narrative to marginalize devout Muslims and their religious practices.
 Despite this long-standing alliance, the U.S. began to distance itself from Hasina’s regime in the
early 2020s, particularly following Joe Biden’s election as president.
 In 2021, Bangladesh was notably excluded from Biden’s Democracy Summit, a symbolic gesture
that signaled Washington’s growing discomfort with the country’s democratic deficiencies.
 This was followed by sanctions on Bangladesh’s elite paramilitary force, the Rapid Action
Battalion (RAB)[9], which had been implicated in extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances,
and torture.
 The U.S. also introduced a visa policy[10] aimed at curbing human rights abuses, particularly in
the context of the 2024 elections.
 Bilateral trade is growing fast, reaching US$13 billion in 2022. In 2021, it was $10.5 billion, and in
2020 it was $7.8 billion. Bangladesh also has a surplus of $7.78 billion.
 The US also wants to sign two defence agreements with Bangladesh, namely the General
Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and the Acquisition Cross-Servicing
Agreement, in its search to strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific region.
 India’s Support for Hasina:
 India has historically been one of the most critical supporters of the Awami League government,
with deep-rooted ties dating back to Bangladesh’s War of Independence in 1971.
 One of the key pillars of the Hasina-India alliance was her government’s cooperation in
addressing India’s security concerns, particularly in its insurgency-prone northeastern states.
 Hasina’s government cracked down on these groups, deporting many insurgents back to India
and ensuring that its territory could not be used as a base for anti-Indian activities.
 Even as pressure mounted from international human rights organizations and Western
governments, India remained steadfast in its support for Hasina, lobbying the United States to
soften its criticisms of Bangladesh’s democratic shortcomings.
 India-Bangladesh strong partnership was demonstrated when Dhaka made the decision to scrap
the China-supported Sonadia deep-sea port, likely due to opposition from India, and when it
chose India rather than China to carry out a $1 billion Teesta River project.
 Hasina’s departure now raises serious concerns in New Delhi, with fears of a
potential resurgence of Islamic extremism in Bangladesh as well as renewed support for Indian
insurgent groups.
 China and Russia: Economic Leverage and Geopolitical Support:
 China and Russia played vital roles in sustaining Hasina’s regime through economic investments
and geopolitical backing.
 China’s economic ties with Bangladesh were particularly crucial, with Beijing
pledging approximately $60 billion in trade, investment, and loans to Bangladesh.
 These investments focused on infrastructure and energy projects, including the construction of
bridges, power plants, and special economic zones.
 When the United States attempted to bring Bangladesh into its Indo-Pacific strategy—primarily
aimed at countering China’s rise—Beijing swiftly reacted.
 In May 2021, the Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh issued a public warning against
Dhaka joining the Quad, an informal strategic alliance between the U.S., India, Japan, and
Australia.
 China’s influence, coupled with its economic leverage, provided Hasina’s government with a
degree of protection from international pressure, allowing her to suppress opposition without
fear of reprisal from global powers.
 Moscow’s investments in Bangladesh’s energy sector, including the construction of a nuclear
power plant, further solidified its ties with the regime.
 The $14 billion project, one of the more controversial and expensive power initiatives under the
Hasina regime, underscores Russia’s significant economic interests in Bangladesh.
 Regional Implications of the Fall of Hasina Regime:
 A Set back to India’s Regional diplomacy: Hasina’s departure now raises serious concerns in
New Delhi, with fears of a potential resurgence of Islamic extremism in Bangladesh as well as
renewed support for Indian insurgent groups.
 India, for its part, has repeatedly expressed concerns over the fate of Hindus in Bangladesh, who
constitute about 8 percent of Bangladesh’s 170 million people and have traditionally been strong
supporters of the Awami League.
 Yunus’s interim government demanded that New Delhi extradite Hasina for a “judicial process”.
Hasina is accused of overseeing a series of human rights abuses during her rule, including during
the crackdown on protesters in the weeks leading up to her ouster.
 Provision of Strategic and Economic Opportunity for China: Yet, despite China’s largesse, Hasina
had maintained a balanced relationship between Beijing and New Delhi, and often favouring the
latter. Hasina’s last trip to Beijing had even ended on a sour note after she received less financial
assistance than anticipated from the Chinese leadership, allegedly prompting her to cut her visit
short.
 The fall of Hasina’s government could thus provide Beijing with an opportunity to deepen its
economic and strategic ties with Dhaka, especially if a more China-friendly government comes to
power.
 Hasina’s ouster can prove to be a falling domino for other states of the South Asia:
 Sri Lanka in the year 2022, faced similar political turmoil, where its president Gotabaya
Rajapaksha was forced to resign after nationwide protests.
 After Sri Lanka, the same pattern has been observed in Bangladesh and the concern here, just
like the falling domino other South Asian countries can also see such widespread protests
demanding rights unique to every country.
 As was the case with the Arab Spring which first saw a spread in anti-government protests from
Tunisia and then a change in the ruling government in the Arab world.
 Pakistan has never been a stable ground for either politics or economy. The country has decades
of military rule and still runs the government from the back.
 Pakistan pulls closer to post-Hasina Bangladesh amid shared India concerns: Pakistan’s army
chief, General Asim Munir, sat with Lieutenant General SM Kamrul Hassan, an officer in the
Bangladesh military.
 Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Muhammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh’s interim
government, during an international summit in Egypt’s capital, Cairo, last month after the two
also met in September on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
 “The issues have come up time and again. Let’s settle them once and for all for future
generations,” Yunus told Sharif, according to Bangladesh’s state news agency.
 India-Hasina Nexus: Ashraf Qureshi, a former Pakistani envoy to Bangladesh, told Al Jazeera that
strained India-Bangladesh ties over New Delhi’s long support for Hasina’s “autocratic”
government, may have prompted the new administration in Dhaka to re-calibrate its moves.
 “I think this is a notable event given where bilateral relations have been for the past 15 years,
but at the same time, I would be careful about reading too much into it. The two countries still
have historical tensions and divergent interests,” Walter Ladwig.
 “They share a long border with them. Their water source originates in India. At most, they may
take a slightly independent policy stance compared with Sheikh Hasina’s time, but they would
not take an anti-India stance,” Ashraf Qurashi.
 Taliban-India Factor: Bangladesh’s growing relationship with Pakistan also comes amid broader
geopolitical moves reshaping South Asia, including India’s dramatic engagement with
Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers in recent months.
 India’s diplomatic engagements with the Taliban have irked Pakistan, which for decades
patronised the armed group and offered refuge to its leaders as they fought against United
States-led forces in the country.
 Economic Aspect: Ladwig thinks that despite recent stumbles due to the mass uprising last
summer, Bangladesh’s economy has been steadily growing – a factor that may be pushing
Islamabad towards better ties.
 “Pakistan needs all the economic partners it can get, which is yet another incentive for
Islamabad to try to enhance ties,” he said.
 Trade volumes between the two countries remain lopsided. Pakistan’s exports to Bangladesh
were valued at $661m while imports stood at $57m, according to official figures. Bilateral trade
stood at more than $700m last year.
 China-Bangladesh Factor: China and Bangladesh have close economic and political relations
which will develop proximity between Bangladesh and Pakistan as well.
Conclusion.