☰
FIVE TEAMS BUILT
TO BEAT THE
CHIEFS: NO. 3, C.J.
STROUD’S TEXANS
By Ben Arthur
Published Aug 22, 2024 10:52 am ET
Editor's note: This is the third of a 1ve-part series on
the quarterbacks and teams best equipped to
challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and
potentially stop them from becoming the 1rst NFL
team in the Super Bowl era to three-peat. No. 3 on
our list: C.J. Stroud and the Texans. No. 5 was Jalen
Hurts and the Eagles, and No. 4 was Brock Purdy and
the 49ers.
The Texans stunned the NFL world.
After three consecutive seasons with four or fewer
victories, they won the AFC South last year. They won
a playoff game, too, trampling the Cleveland Browns
in a wild-card matchup. Houston had 11 total
victories to show for in a franchise-altering 2023.
With DeMeco Ryans, a 1nalist for 2023 Coach of the
Year, and C.J. Stroud, who put together one of the
best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history,
Houston's upside is as high as any team in the
league.
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"Our future is bright," Stroud said after the Texans'
divisional-round loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
In only Year 2 of the rebuild, C.J. Stroud & Co. are one
of the Chiefs' top challengers in the AFC.
No team has garnered more hype than the Texans
entering 2024 — and not just because of their
breakout season last year. They haven't rested on
their laurels. Taking advantage of the 1nancial
_exibility afforded by Stroud's rookie contract,
Houston was aggressive this offseason in building
its team into a Super Bowl contender.
It traded for perennial Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs
and star running back Joe Mixon. It signed Pro Bowl
edge rusher Danielle Hunter, standout defensive
lineman Denico Autry and middle linebacker Azeez
Al-Shaair in free agency.
The Texans have arguably the NFL's top receiving trio
in Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Adding Mixon
and tight end Dalton Schultz, Houston has what
Stroud has called a "1ve-headed monster." And once
Autry is in the fold — he's suspended for the 1rst six
games for violating the league's performance-
enhancing drug policy — the Texans should have one
of the NFL's top defensive fronts.
Why Stroud and the Texans could beat the Chiefs in
a potential AFC Championship Game matchup
Kansas City's offense showed more vulnerability last
season than it ever has in the Mahomes era — and
Houston is equipped to take advantage.
Last year, the Chiefs offense hovered between
average and below average against zone. Mahomes
threw eight touchdown passes against 10
interceptions with a subpar 85.5 passer rating
against zone coverage, according to Next Gen Stats
(compared to 19 touchdowns and just four picks
with a terri1c 110.6 rating against man coverage).
Superstar tight end Travis Kelce and receivers
Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown — three of the
Chiefs' top four pass-catchers — also combined for
zero touchdowns against zone coverage last season,
per Pro Football Focus.
Brown, who's expected to miss a few weeks after
dislocating his shoulder in the Chiefs' preseason
opener, struggled mightily against zone coverage last
season with the Arizona Cardinals. His 56.1% catch
rate vs. zone ranked 82nd of 93 quali1ed wide
receivers, according to PFF. Arizona's quarterbacks
had a lowly 57.6 passer rating when targeting him in
zone coverage.
The Chiefs' struggles against zone could play into
the hands of the Texans, who were in zone for 81.1%
of their defensive snaps last season, per Nex Gen
Stats. A zone usage rate at or more than that could
give Kansas City problems.
Some of Houston's raw numbers in zone last season
weren't great: 22nd in EPA allowed, 24th in rushing
yards per game allowed, 30th in passing yards per
game allowed. But the team ranked middle of the
pack in points allowed in zone (tied for 15th, 66
points allowed), ninth in takeaways (17) and second
in red-zone eiciency (18 points allowed), according
to Next Gen Stats.
The Texans' top defensive back, third-year
cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., is also positioned to
thrive against Kansas City in zone, where he had four
of his 1ve interceptions last season, according to
NGS. The former LSU star allowed just a 52.0 passer
rating in zone coverage as well (he allowed a 59.9
rating in man). He could take Rice, Brown or 1rst-
round rookie Xavier Worthy out of the game, forcing
Mahomes to be overly reliant on Kelce.
[RELATED: Will Chiefs' offensive burden once again
fall on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce?]
Forcing the Mahomes-Kelce connection to beat you
isn't necessarily a foolproof recipe for success for
the Texans — or for any other team. After all, the two
future Hall of Famers have carried the Chiefs to
several victories over the years. But taking away
Mahomes' other weapons increases an opponent's
odds of winning.
Offensively, the Texans can best exploit the Chiefs in
11 personnel, where they can have Diggs, Dell,
Collins, Mixon and Schultz on the 1eld together.
As explosive as Houston was last season, the
offense was inconsistent against man coverage.
Stroud completed just 53.7% of his passes for 934
yards and eight touchdowns against three
interceptions with a 90.7 passer rating against man,
according to Next Gen Stats. That compares to a
67.2% completion rate for 3,174 yards and 15
touchdowns and just two picks with a 104.1 rating
against zone.
That's why the addition of Diggs is so massive. A
terri1c route-runner throughout his career, Diggs
shores up the Texans' de1ciencies against man
coverage. Bills QB Josh Allen had a 114.7 passer
rating when targeting Diggs last season against man,
compared to a 94.8 rating against zone, according to
Pro Football Focus.
The Chiefs last season ranked 21st in pass defense
in man coverage — not bad, but certainly below
average. Against the Texans' "1ve-headed monster,"
subpar pass coverage can be the difference between
a win and a loss.
That's how hype can meet realized potential for
Houston against Kansas City.
Five teams that can prevent a Chiefs three-peat:
No. 1: TBD
No. 2: TBD
No. 3: C.J. Stroud/Texans
No. 4: Brock Purdy/49ers
No. 5: Jalen Hurts/Eagles
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports.
He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA
TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer
for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle
Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons
(2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can
follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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